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4,300 | Discover Vinyl keeps your payment information secure. Discover Vinyl never shares your personal information. | {
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4,301 | Partition gets lost without a reason? Accidentally delete a partition? Don’t be panic. This article tells how to recover lost/deleted/formatted/missing partition in Windows 7/8/10 with simple ways.
By Lucas / Last Updated June 23, 2021
The issue: partition lost in Windows 7
“Partition lost is a common disaster that occurs in daily life. Here are some cases of losing partition in Windows 7.
“Hi, all. I accidentally deleted my E drive which is used to store data while installing Windows OS. Now, the operating system has been installed smoothly. I was wondering if there is any way to recover that accidentally deleted partition, now is unallocated space, in Windows 7. Thanks.”.”
“Help please. One of my hard drive partitions becomes a space with an asterisk in Disk Management this morning I turned on my Windows 7. It disappears from Windows File Explorer and I cannot access files on that partition. I can’t recall what has done exactly because last time I use it was a week ago. Can I recover missing partition in Windows 7? Any help would be appreciated.”
“My Dell Recovery Partition missing on Windows 7, and I cannot restore when disaster happen in the future. I have no idea about the causes. Please help.”
Usually, partitions will get lost owing to inappropriate operations like delete or format. However, sometimes, they get missing without a reason, at least not a reason you can aware of. Some possible reasons for a partition missing are listed in the next part. If you’re not interested, skip to the “How-to” part directly.
Possible causes for partition missing in Windows 7
These reasonable causes for partition lost are widely discussed. Check if they are applying for your situation.
Loss of volume label, drive letter or partition name.
Bad sectors.
Corrupted partition table or file system.
Lost after a hard drive repartition.
Lost after a hard drive upgrading.
Power failure.
That information just for reference, and what counts next is to find out how to recover the lost, deleted, missing or formatted partition easily. In the first place, you need to bear these notes in mind.
A deleted or formatted partition is recoverable because Windows only removes or rebuilds partition information such as partition size, location, etc.
Do not add new items to the formatted partition, or reformat it.
Do not recreate new partition on the unallocated space.
How to recover lost partition in Windows 7 with an easy way?
A pretty easy way to perform partition recovery in Windows 7 will be firstly introduced. AOMEI Partition Assistant Professional is powerful yet easy-to-use software that helps you recover deleted, formatted, lost or missing partitions with clicks.
This software is able to recover NTFS partition, and works perfect on GPT and MBR partition table. It will find lost partition in Windows 7 with two search methods, fast search and full search. Further, to avoid issues like software confliction or if your system fails to boot, you can create bootable media and do these operations without booting Windows 7.
What’s more, this software supports managing dynamic disk volume. For example, it helps a lot when you unable to convert dynamic disk to basic without losing data.
Recover partition in Windows 7 step by step
1. Install and run AOMEI Partition Assistant Professional. Click Partition Recovery Wizard on the left panel. In the pop up window, select the disk where your lost partition locates and click Next.
2. Select a search mode, Fast Search (recommended) and Full Search, and click Next.
3. Wait for the search complete and select the lost partition from given list. Click Proceed to start. Patience is required when the software is recovering the partition.
4. At the congratulations window, click Finish to exit this page. Back to Disk Management to check if your partition gets recovered.
Tips:
If you cannot find lost partition after a Fast Search, click Full Search and try again.
To recover lost partition on Windows Server operating systems, please turn to AOMEI Partition Assistant Server edition.
Recover partition in Windows 7 via command lines
If your partition becomes a space with an asterisk in Disk Management, you can try this way to get it back, re-assign drive letter in CMD. It is also a kind of free way to recover lost partition.
1. Click Start and type cmd in the search box. Right click cmd.exe from the results and select Run as administrator.
2. Type diskpart and press Enter. Then, input these commands successively and each command is along with an Enter.
list disk
select disk n (where n is the disk number of the disk where your lost partition locates)
list volume
select volume # (where # is the volume number of the lost partition)
assign letter=g (you can replace g with any other letter that is not occupying)
3. Type exit twice to leave DiskPart and CMD.
Please note that all steps take effect immediately and you cannot step back in command prompt. Therefore, make sure you’re selecting the right disk and partition, or other partitions will be affected.
For your information, DiskPart helps you manage hard drive partitions in Windows. You can type diskpart> help to learn more commands. For example, you can use DiskPart to make bootable USB drive.
Conclusion
Two ways on how to recover lost, deleted, formatted or missing partition in Windows 7 are introduced above. Choose the way that you prefer. Actually, they also apply to Windows 10, 8, 8.1, XP and Vista. Hard drive failure and partition issue occur quite often, so it is suggested to create regular backup for important files.
Apart from recovering lost partition, AOMEI Partition Assistant Professional also supports migrate OS to SSD from HDD while keeping files on HDD, convert disk between MBR and GPT without data loss, resize system partition, secure erase SSD before selling and without hurting its lifespan, etc. It is suggested to keep it installed to help manage hard drive efficiently after. | {
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4,302 | Look on in wonder at this magnificent Baroque château and its gardens, which in the summer are illuminated by more than 2,000 candles.
Disneyland Paris
Age Interest
Preschoolers, Kids, Tweens, Teens, Adults, All Ages
Chateau Vaux le Vicomte : an architectural masterpiece
Wander the intersecting gravel walks of the most lavish gardens in 17th century France. With dazzling interiors and stunning patterned parterres, you'll be swept away in a cool breeze of French wonder and whimsy.
The chateau Vaux le Vicomte, built between 1658 and 1661, this was the first collaboration between landscape architect André le Nôtre and painter/art theorist Charles le Brun. It sparked the beginning of the 'Louis XIV style' and had a significant influence on the design of the Palace of Versailles and architecture as a whole across Europe.
Visitor Details
Opening Times
The chateau Vaux le Vicomte is open every day from mid-March to mid-November, between 10:00 AM and 06:00 PM. Other opening times during special events, such as Candlelight evenings or "Vaux-le-Vicomte celebrates Christmas", apply.
Getting There
By car from Disneyland® Paris: Motorway A4, A104 then A5. Approximately 45 km.
Map
Terms of Use
Stay Connected
Any questions about all available products or offers?
Please call our advisers at
+33 1 60 30 60 53
International call rates apply. Cost may vary according to network
Some images do not represent current operational guidelines or health and safety measures such as protective face masks and physical distancing requirements. Read this page for important details to know before your visit | {
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4,303 | Default sorting Sort by popularity Sort by average rating Sort by latest Sort by price: low to high Sort by price: high to low | {
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4,304 | It's Ladies Night and ladies drink FREE select wines & well drinks from 8-10PM. Come early and stay late! Info a day member pricing can be found here: https://calienteresorts.com/daily-memberships/ | {
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4,305 | Unit B1 Shannon House, Hambridge Road, Newbury, Berkshire, RG14 5SS • 01635 780002 • s[email protected]
ESP Music Disco Limited trading as djkit.com is acting as a credit broker offering finance products from Omni Capital Retail Finance Limited. ESP Music Disco Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, registration number FRN676089. Credit is subject to status. | {
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4,306 | Hayabusa2, JAXA's asteroid explorer, and the MASCOT lander, developed by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and the French space agency (CNES) have been travelling through space since December 2014.
They are finally closing in on their destination asteroid – Ryugu. As of 14 June 2018, the distance between Hayabusa2 and Ryugu is less than 770 kilometres and the closing speed is 2.1 metres per second. read more
Tags:
Hayabusa2 \ MASCOT
Space | 15. July 2016 | posted by Christian Grimm
Half-time for MASCOT – half the journey is completed
Credit: DLR (CC-BY 3.0)
The MASCOT spare Flight Unit (FS) during further testing in Bremen
On December 3rd 2014, the French-German MASCOT asteroid lander was launched with its carrier probe Hayabusa2 from Tanegashima, an island about 40 kilometres south of the Japanese mainland. With MASCOT halfway to its destination, we look back on all that has happened since the launch.
At the beginning of 2015, MASCOT's spare flight unit, the so-called Flight Spare (FS), was refurbished and made ready. On Earth, this identical 'twin' of the asteroid lander serves as a reference system for the flight unit, the Flight Model (FM). The spare unit underwent the same qualification tests as the flight model and can also be used for advanced unit tests that were no longer possible for the FM due to scheduling constraints. These additional tests mainly focused on getting the best possible performance out of the system and on precisely calibrating the parameters required for the landing in October 2018. To achieve this, the scientific instruments on MASCOT performed a series of measurements. read more
Tags:
Space research
Asteroid
Landing robot
Hayabusa2 \ MASCOT
Space | 05. November 2014 | posted by Christian Grimm | 1 Comment
One last look - farewell, MASCOT
Credit: DLR
Applying the final layers of protection prior to the launch
The last adjustments have been made and the final functionality tests have been completed. Following the successful installation of MASCOT into the Hayabusa-2 spacecraft in Sagamihara, the final preparations have taken place at the Tanegashima launch complex in Japan. The attachment of the solar sails – carefully folded up above MASCOT for the launch – offers the last opportunity to see MASCOT.
Now, the development team must take a step back – it is a strange feeling. For two and a half years, we have been nurturing MASCOT, seeing it grow, teaching it plenty. But now it is time to let go, in the truest sense of the word, and send it on its difficult mission. Unfortunately, we cannot accompany it.
So how do you deal with the departure of an object that is not alive in a biological sense, yet contains the personalities of so many people who have guided it so dearly throughout its development? read more
Tags:
Space research
Asteroid
Landing robot
Hayabusa2 \ MASCOT
Space | 26. August 2013 | posted by Christian Grimm | 1 Comment
First test on Japanese soil
The MASCOT asteroid lander will be delivered to the Japanese space agency JAXA at the start of next year. It will be integrated into the Hayabusa2 spacecraft and prepared for launch, scheduled for late 2014. There is still a long way to go, but there is little time! read more
Tags:
Space research
Asteroid
Landing robot
Hayabusa2 \ MASCOT
Space | 21. August 2013 | posted by Christian Grimm
MASCOT: A 'shoebox' with complex inner workings
The 'small’ asteroid lander MASCOT will set off for asteroid 1999 JU3 on board the Japanese Hayabusa-2 mission at the end of 2014. Although from the outside it seems to be the size of a shoebox, the lander’s stature is deceiving! Its sophisticated and highly developed payload, and its powerful communication and computing system make MASCOT a high-tech, albeit very compact, autonomous spacecraft, perfectly equipped to cope with the arduous and long mission it faces. read more | {
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4,307 | العربية (المملكة العربية السعودية) 中文(简体) (中华人民共和国) 中文(繁體) (台灣) čeština (Česká republika) English (United States) français (France) Deutsch (Deutschland) Deutsch (Schweiz) עברית (ישראל) हिंदी (भारत) Bahasa Indonesia (Indonesia) italiano (Italia) 日本語 (日本) 한국어 (대한민국) Português (Brasil) русский (Россия) español (España) svenska (Sverige) Türkçe (Türkiye) Tiếng Việt Nam (Việt Nam)
Page Title
Yeşilöz | Summer Home
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Yeşilöz ist rund 30km vom lebhaften Alanya entfernt und gehört zu den beliebten Urlaubsorten in der Region – perfekt zum Erwerb von einer Ferienwohnung.
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Page Title:
Yeşilöz | Summer Home
Page URL:
https://summerhomes.com/de/yesiloz
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Protection: All original content on https://summerhomes.com/de/yesiloz is created by the website owner or published under permission including but not limited to text, design, code, images, photographs and videos are considered to be the Intellectual Property of the website owner, whether copyrighted or not, and are protected by DMCA.com Protection Pro Service using the Digital Millennium Copyright Act Title 17 Chapter 512 (c)(3). Reproduction or re-publication of this content is prohibited without permission.
Digital Millennium Copyright Act: Is part of US Copyright Law. It addresses penalties for copyright infringement found on the Internet. This act protects content creators by "establishing procedures for proper notification" to OSPs when copyright infringement is identified online. Online Copyright Infringement Liability Limitation Act (OCILLA), Title II is part of the DMCA as Section 512 to the Copyright Act and creates a conditional safe harbour to liability for copyright infringement by online service providers. These procedures allow proper DMCA Takedown Notices to be filed by the owner of this website or DMCA.com, as their designated agent, to an OSP in case infringed material has been detected on their servers.
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This page was translated, if you find any inaccuracies, please let us know at [email protected], thank you | {
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4,309 | Here is a full list of fixtures up until Thursday 2 July – we've included the channels they'll be shown on and highlighted those you'll be able to watch for free.
Wednesday 17 June
6pm Aston Villa vs Sheffield United (Sky Sports) 8.15pm Manchester City vs Arsenal (Sky Sports)
Friday 19 June 6pm Norwich City vs Southampton (FREE on Sky Sports/Pick) 8.15pm Spurs vs Man United (Sky Sports)
Saturday 20 June 12.30pm Watford vs Leicester City (BT Sport) 3pm Brighton vs Arsenal (BT Sport) 5.30pm West Ham vs Wolves (Sky Sports) 7.45pm AFC Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace (FREE on the BBC)
Sunday 21 June 2pm Newcastle United vs Sheffield United (FREE on Sky Sports/Pick) 4.15pm Aston Villa vs Chelsea (Sky Sports) 7pm Everton vs Liverpool (FREE on Sky Sports/Pick)
Monday 22 June 8pm Manchester City vs Burnley (Sky Sports)
Tuesday 23 June 6pm Leicester City vs Brighton (Sky Sports) 8.15pm Spurs vs West Ham (Sky Sports)
Wednesday 24 June 6pm Manchester United vs Sheffield United (FREE on Sky Sports/Pick) 6pm Newcastle United vs Aston Villa (BT Sport) 6pm Norwich City vs Everton (FREE on the BBC) 6pm Wolves vs AFC Bournemouth (BT Sport) 8.15pm Liverpool vs Crystal Palace (Sky Sports)
Thursday 25 June 6pm Burnley vs Watford (FREE on Sky Sports/Pick) 6pm Southampton vs Arsenal (Sky Sports) 8.15pm Chelsea vs Manchester City (BT Sport)
Saturday 27 June 12.30pm Aston Villa vs Wolves (BT Sport)
Sunday 28 June 4.30pm Watford vs Southampton (FREE on Sky Sports/Pick)
Monday 29 June 8pm Crystal Palace vs Burnley (FREE on Amazon Prime Video)
Tuesday 30 June 8.15pm Brighton vs Manchester United (FREE on Sky Sports/Pick)
Wednesday 1 July 6pm Arsenal vs Norwich City (BT Sport) 6pm AFC Bournemouth vs Newcastle United (FREE on Sky Sports/Pick) 6pm Everton vs Leicester City (Sky Sports) 8.15pm West Ham vs Chelsea (Sky Sports)
Thursday 2 July 6pm Sheffield United vs Spurs (Sky Sports) 8.15pm Manchester City vs Liverpool (Sky Sports) | {
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4,310 | Founder Megan started CLOVO™ in 2018 while living through freezing Upstate NY winters. Tights were a lifeline in NY; however, she absolutely hated how they felt, sagged, ripped easily, and were incredibly itchy! To fix all these problems, she engineered EverTights™ and RevoTights™ using her background in physics and science.
With a background in astrogeophysics and engineering, founder Megan formed a team with a diversity of skillsets, but one with shared love for creating a better future for the Earth. Unlike most fashion companies, CLOVO core team is 100% women with science and engineering backgrounds who work to continuously make the brand more comfortable for women of all body types and more sustainable. CLOVO's tights are revolutionary; made from eco friendly Tencel™ fabric & Oeko-Tex certified dyes, last 5x longer & use 71% less plastic than traditional tights, form fitting comfortable design, soft skin friendly materials.
CLOVO™ partners with the Cool Effect's Breath of Fresh Air project, helping fund the construction of cookstoves in rural homes in Honduras that provide clean air to families. These stoves save wood, save time, eliminate toxic smoke, and help the planet by saving miles of forests and reducing carbon emissions by about 3 tonnes per stove per year. CLOVO™ strives to provide clothing and accessories to empower women and support the environment through the creation of long-lasting designs and the use of natural materials. Their core brand values are; Sustainability, Empowerment & Inclusion, and Environmentally Conscious Design (“Science of Fashion”).
Learn More: Stylish Storyteller, THR3EFOLD Ethical Fashion, Claw Convos, CLOVO: Responsibly Revitalising An Everyday Accessory, TENCEL™, CoolEffect.org | {
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4,312 | Dobies bay trees and topiary make wonderfully stylish garden gifts. These decorative plants enhance any garden, patio or decking and offer stunning foliage and flowers to bring structure and beauty to the garden.
Dobies bay trees and topiary make wonderfully stylish garden gifts. These decorative plants enhance any garden, patio or decking and offer stunning foliage and flowers to bring structure and beauty to the garden.
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“I bought all my seeds, potatoes, etc. from your catalogue last year for my new ‘larger’ vegetable garden. I have to say I have never had such success in the garden. The germination was excellent; the quality of plant stock and produce is superb."
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We're international suppliers of quality flower and vegetable seeds, bedding, bulbs, fruit bushes, trees and horticultural tools. Dobies continues to build its reputation and loyal customers throughout the UK and worldwide. | {
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I recently adopted a 2.5 year old mini Aussie. Ever since I got her she's had this issue where she hold her per for 24-36hours or sometimes when she gets excited/scared she has an accident. I've taken her to the vet, had an x Ray done and there is nothing wrong with her.ive tried taking her out every few hours, and prasing her when she does pee. She is drinking normally and has access to water. So I'm at a loss as to as to what the issue is or what else I should be doing
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Kathyy
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#2 · Jul 10, 2018
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Have you measured how much she is taking in? Ginger isn't a fan of drinking water and will hold it if she decides she doesn't want to go too. No idea how she does it, rarely drinks, urine color is pale. It is easier for my reluctant drinkers to take in enough water if there's some in the meals if you think she needs more water.
Suspect she's still settling in. It took Max a good 8 days before he could potty out of the backyard for instance. Ginger was pooping a couple times a WEEK for a month. Try adding a small treat after she's finished pottying outside, maybe she'll work harder for a real reward. You have to develop praise into even a weak reward. Try taking her out any time you suspect she'll get excited and have to pee. I rush Bucky outside when we get home as he doesn't do much sleeping when I'm gone so kidneys don't stop working.
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3GSD4IPO
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#3 · Jul 10, 2018
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Add water to her food. She will need to pee at some point.
Accidents are likely a combination of too full bladder and submissive pee-ing.
A dog that is afraid to go to the bathroom and that does pee submissively has confidence issues. Such a dog cannot be handled roughly in any way. She is likely basically not a confident dog and being in a new place with a new person has simply exacerbated the issue. With time she will very likely improve and be OK. YOU need to be patient and relaxed around this dog.. not lean over her.. not be up-tight in your stance, tone or manner. You relaxing will help the dog relax and things should go much better.
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Lillith
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#4 · Jul 10, 2018
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It's possible that she was scolded for going potty in front of her owners in her previous home, so she's simply scared to go in front of you. Try letting her go out on a long line and ignoring her while she sniffs around. Some dogs don't like going on leash, so giving them so room helps. Just sit in one spot, don't do anything exciting. If she goes, gently praise and reward (unless she likes when you get excited, but if she's timid about potty time, then gentle).
Gonna Poke Your Eye Out AXP AJP "Ralphie"
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brnewman.bn
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#5 · Jul 11, 2018
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My dog is not comfortable going to the bathroom when on camping trips. He will hold it for a long time. I found it helps him to bring him to the same spot every time. Still takes him a while to go. He has to sniff it all out. Every time we return to "his" spot he is a little more comfortable and will go a little quicker. He is not a dog who you can just take out for a walk to do his business.
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4,314 | Beautiful red pink satin dress with a fitted cut creates an elegant and shapely silhouette. The deep V-neckline and waistline pleats emphasise femininity.
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Red Pink Bunone Satin Dress - Various Colours quantity
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SKU: DAS4788 Categories: Day Dresses, Dresses, Occassion Dresses Tags: dresses, Occasion dresses
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Beautiful red pink satin dress with a fitted cut creates an elegant and shapely silhouette. The deep V-neckline and waistline pleats emphasise femininity. This style has long sleeves finished with an elastic band with decorative stitching above the elbow. This is an incredibly feminine, emphasising the silhouette.
Material: polyester 70% viscose 20% elastane 10%
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4,317 | After a slow start, the game burst into life on the half-hour mark with MK Dons using their possession to full advantage with Harvie and then Will Grigg forcing several top saves from Louis Jones. While substitute Louis Thompson pulled another save from Jones early in the second half.
Rovers were better in the second 45, Brad Halliday’s effort at the near post was saved by Alex Fisher while Harry Darling seemed to appear no where to deny Jason Lokilo and the winger saw another effort saved . Harvie’s effort from the edge of the box wrong-footed the Rovers defence and gave the home side the lead. Harry Darling cleared Tom Anderson's header off the line in the final minute of injury time to ensure Rovers would leave with nothing.
Club News
MK Dons vs Doncaster Rovers on 27 Mar 21
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Don McGill Toyota Incentives
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Current 2018 Toyota Avalon Hybrid Sedan Special Offers
The standard features of the Toyota Avalon Hybrid XLE include 2.5L I-4 200hp hybrid gas engine, 2-speed CVT transmission with overdrive, 4-wheel anti-lock brakes (ABS), side seat mounted airbags, curtain 1st and 2nd row overhead airbags, rear side-impact airbag, driver and passenger knee airbag, airbag occupancy sensor, automatic air conditioning, 17" aluminum wheels, cruise control, distance pacing, ABS and driveline traction control, electronic stability.
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College Students and Recent Grads get $500 Rebate on select new untitled Toyota models.
Manufacturer Offers
College Students and Recent Grads get $500 Rebate on select new untitled Toyota models.
$500 Special Offer
Offer only valid 12/01/2021 through 1/03/2022
Applies to multiple models. See Trims
Disclaimer(s):
You may qualify for a $500 rebate if you have graduated within the last two calendar years or will within the next six months and finance or lease a select new Toyota through your dealer and Toyota Financial Services. College Graduate Rebate is available on select new and unlicensed Toyota vehicles. Toyota Certified Used Vehicles (TCUVs) and Scion Certified Pre-Owned Vehicles are not eligible for the Rebate Program. College Graduate Finance Program (which is not a rebate and instead offers competitive APRs and lease terms) is available on the lease or finance (including preferred option) of all new and unlicensed Toyota models or on TCUVs or Scion Certified Pre-Owned Vehicles. Subject to the foregoing limits and requirements below, the College Graduate Rebate Program and College Graduate Finance Program are available upon credit approval from and execution of a finance or lease contract through a participating Toyota dealer and Toyota Financial Services (TFS). Not all applicants will qualify. To qualify for the College Graduate Rebate Program and College Graduate Finance Program, customers must be currently enrolled in a graduate degree program from an eligible school (as defined below), or enrolled in or be a graduate from an eligible school and provide proof of graduation (showing an upcoming graduation within six months OR a recent graduation within two calendar years from the date of signing your vehicle lease or finance contract) from one of the following eligible schools located in the 50 United States, Puerto Rico, or U.S. Virgin Islands: (a) an accredited four-year college, university or registered nursing program; OR (b) an accredited two-year college associate degree or an undergraduate academic degree as awarded by community colleges, junior colleges, technical colleges and universities; OR (c) an accredited two-year trade or vocational school; OR (d) an accredited graduate school. In all cases, the student will have two calendar years from receipt of their degree to take advantage of the program. Must provide proof of qualification and any one of the following documents will be accepted: (a) copy of diploma; OR (b) letter from the college/university/trade school registrar’s office stating graduation date and type of degree or certification earned; OR (c) copy of the final transcript confirming graduation date and type of degree earned; OR (d) copy of current transcript (or letter from college/university registrar’s office) confirming current enrollment in a graduate degree program. Eligible customers must also meet credit approval requirements and furnish proof of present or future employment (which will begin within 120 days of credit approval) when submitting credit application. Rebate offered by Toyota Motor North America. Customer must also be approved for credit by, and finance “the Vehicle” through Toyota Financial Services (TFS) at participating Toyota dealers. During the last 24 months, all obligations on your credit report must have been paid within 60 days of the due date, and your credit report must not show more than $1,000 in total charge-offs. Rebate will be applied on TFS lease agreements toward the amount due at lease signing or delivery or capitalized cost reduction or the down payment on TFS finance contracts. Limit one rebate per lease or finance transaction. College Graduate Rebate Program may not be combined with the Toyota Military Rebate Program or iFi Program. Vehicle must be taken from dealer stock. Rebate valid on contracts executed between 12-01-2021 and 01-03-2022. College Graduate Programs are subject to change or termination at any time. Some restrictions apply. Programs are not available in AL, FL, GA, HI, NC, and SC. Rebate terms may be more generous in your local area. Ask your participating dealer about the college graduate rebate terms in your area. Under the College Graduate Finance Program, competitive APRs and lease terms are available on eligible finance contracts with terms up to specified number of months for retail and lease and preferred option financing on new vehicles. See dealer for details. Must pay sales tax. Void where prohibited by law. Not redeemable for cash. ©2021 Toyota Financial Services. All rights reserved. Toyota Financial Services is a service mark used by Toyota Motor Credit Corporation (TMCC). TMCC is the authorized attorney-in-fact and servicer for Toyota Lease Trust.
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Military Personnel can get a $500 Rebate on new Toyota model.
Manufacturer Offers
Military Personnel can get a $500 Rebate on new Toyota model.
$500 Special Offer
Offer only valid 12/01/2021 through 1/03/2022
Applies to multiple models. See Trims
Disclaimer(s):
Eligible U.S. military personnel and their families may qualify for a $500 reward that can be used toward a new Toyota financed or leased through your dealer and Toyota Financial Services. $500 rebate offered by Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc. and may be applied toward finance or lease contracts on new Toyota vehicles, dated from 12-01-2021 through 01-03-2022. To qualify for the rebate, at the time of purchase or lease you must (1) be in current active duty status in the U.S. military (Navy, Army, Air Force, Marines, National Guard, Coast Guard and active Reserve) OR a U.S. military inactive reserve (i.e., Ready Reserve) that is part of the individual Ready Reserve, Selected Reserve and Inactive National Guard; OR a retiree of the U.S. military, OR a military veteran within two years of their discharge date; OR a household member of an eligible U.S. military personnel, including Gold Star family members; AND (2) provide verifiable proof of military status or active service; (3) receive a salary sufficient to cover ordinary living expenses and payment for your new vehicle; and (4) receive credit approval from and execute a finance or lease contract through a participating Toyota dealer and Toyota Financial Services. Not all applicants will qualify. On lease contracts, rebate must be applied toward the Amount Due at Lease Signing or toward the Capitalized Cost Reduction. On finance contracts, rebate must be applied toward the Down Payment. Limit one rebate per finance or lease transaction per eligible U.S. military personnel or eligible household member. Offer not combinable with the College Graduate Rebate Program, the iFi Program, and the Lease-End Refi Program. Vehicle must be taken out of dealer stock. Terms, conditions and restrictions apply. Program is not available in AL, FL, GA, HI, NC, and SC. Rebate terms may be more generous in your local area. Ask your participating dealer about the military rebate terms in your area. Must pay sales tax. Void where prohibited by law. Not redeemable for cash. Toyota Financial Services is a service mark of Toyota Motor Credit Corporation (TMCC). TMCC is the authorized attorney-in-fact and servicer for Toyota Lease Trust. ©2021 Toyota Financial Services. All rights reserved. | {
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4,319 | Jeff knows this to be true because he has received two kidneys in his life – one from a 23-year-old man who died in a car accident, and the other from his wife.
It was a bruised kidney in 1984 that took Jeff to the doctor where he’d eventually learn he had kidney disease. Twelve years later, he entered end-stage kidney failure and began dialysis. Plans to receive a kidney from his brother were halted at the last minute, and after the discovery and removal of a large tumor on his small intestine, Jeff learned that the tumor would have likely killed him had he received his brother’s kidney. So Jeff counted his blessings and accepted the fact that he’d wait several years for his transplant.
Jeff received his first transplant on Dec. 18, 1999.
“We were ecstatic for about ten seconds,” he said about learning of his gift. “Then it hit us that someone was going through a very tragic situation and we just started bawling our eyes out that someone had lost a loved one and made the decision to donate his organs.”
Jeff’s donor’s mother had respected her son’s wishes to donate his organs after he was tragically killed in a car accident.
His donor’s gift allowed Jeff to complete his master’s degree and fulfill his dream of becoming a high school science teacher – a career he enjoyed in Denver’s public school system for 13 years until he again approached end-stage kidney failure.
Even though she had not previously met the requirements, Jeff’s wife Robin was a suitable match for his second transplant thanks to advances in medical technology and she gave him a kidney in January of 2013.
Since his second transplant, health complications have led Jeff to step away from his role as high school teacher, but he still fulfills his passion for science and teaching as one of Donor Alliance’s Transplantation Science Educators. He also spends time with his college-aged daughter, volunteers for the American Transplant Foundation, and is an avid cyclist and member of Team Transplant.
“I’m a lucky person and I’m going to do all I can for the rest of my living days to help facilitate as many people getting transplants as possible.
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4,320 | St. Jude is the patron saint of desperate cases, lost causes, and of the Diocese of St. Petersburg. He is the patron of impossible causes because of his Apostolic ministry in the early church. By visiting and encouraging early Christian communities who endured tremendous hardship, he accomplished the improbable. While early communities despaired and perhaps others were frustrated already at the role of division in the early Church, Jude brought encouragement. As one who carries and brings the image of Christ to those in need and was filled with the fire of the Spirit at Pentecost, St. Jude intercedes powerfully for our local church. Too often we forget this powerful intercessor in our daily life and the relationship that we, as a Diocese, have to him. Who better to turn to as we confront difficulties than the one whose name means “Giver of Joy.” Today I invite you to call upon St. Jude for his intercession. The feast day of St. Jude the Apostle is October 28.
How did St. Jude become the patron saint of our diocese?
In November 1950, Father Paul Manning was assigned to organize a new parish in St. Petersburg. A founding parishioner suggested naming the new parish after the little-known St. Jude the Apostle. The parishioner’s son had been badly injured in an automobile accident and through his novenas to St. Jude, the boy completely recovered. Father Manning asked Most Reverend Joseph Hurley, the Archbishop of St. Augustine, and he agreed.
On December 12, 1950, the archbishop announced the canonical establishment of the Parish of St. Jude the Apostle. When Pope Paul VI established the Diocese of St. Petersburg in 1968, the parish of St. Jude the Apostle became the Cathedral of St. Jude the Apostle, thereby making St. Jude the patron saint of our diocese. | {
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4,321 | Federal 30-year interest rate: 3.11% last updated on Dec 2, 2021. * The above figures are estimates provided by Union Street Media using the FRED® API, and are not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Check with your lender for actual interest rates.
Mobile: 413-341-2054 Office: 413-586-8355 112 Main St., Northampton, MA 01060 [email protected] Privacy Policy | {
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4,322 | The Sandhurst Catholic Education Office and Schools acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land on which their Offices and Schools are built. We commit to working in partnership with Aboriginal people for reconciliation and justice. | {
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LG - 27EA83-D monitor
Started Jun 7, 2013 | Discussions thread
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GeminiMac • New Member • Posts: 2
Re: LG - 27EA83-D monitor
In reply to QSMcDraw • Jun 25, 2013
I bought this monitor 3 weeks ago from Newegg for $700, $150 off from regular $850. Be sure not to confuse with very similar looking model--LG 27EA83R-D, sold for less, also by Newegg, at least. Notice the only difference is the "R." But the "R-D" is 8-bit color, not wide gamut. If you buy from Newegg, I suggest you ship overnight or 2-day, not free shipping, because monitor is not double boxed, which can mean damage in transit. Might be better shipping with Amazon. The monitor I received is a revision firmware, actual 10-bit with extraordinary colors. I have one very small grouping of pixels that only shows on black background, but the pixels show color properly, so I didn't send monitor back. Definitely test pixels with Online monitor test - By vanity.dk and flatpanels.dk. Tried to "repair" pixels with JScreenFix and http://lpm.jads.co.uk:80/webstart/jscreenfix.jnlp?licenceId=60d6ad88-ba80-49f5-a178-4d1642f1a51f to no avail. The pixels take the monitor from an absolute A+ to an A. The color from just an 8-bit jpeg is wonderful. The LG software calibration is only for Windows, and LG has no Mac version. I run both OS X Mountain Lion and native Windows 7 Pro from separate SSDs in my MacBook Pro. I bought new Spyder4Pro from Amazon for $169, as the LG can calibrate in Windows from this and Spyder3Pro and ColorMunki using the sensor only and the LG software. The LG software seems extremely good, and the calibration ICC file, which I also moved to the Mac system, seemed even better than the pre calibration by LG, which itself is documented on a sheet with your monitor. There are a couple "tricks" to getting the calibration to work, and the documentation for the monitor is way under par. You must have the USB cable connected from your computer to your monitor input! I was able to connect the Spyder4 into USB on the MBP directly as recommended by Datacolor, not on the LG USB hub. Second, you must have the open calibration program actually sitting on your LG monitor screen in order for it to respond to any input! I have only seen AdobeRGB color space images in 8-bit jpegs, but as I said even here the color and definition, the deep blacks, the grayscale, the resolution afforded by the pixels are all terrific. PC World, for what it's worth, chose this as their 27" high-quality monitor editors' pick. I think the best competition is the Dell Ultrasharp U2713H with PremierColor (make sure it's this model) and the high-end ViewSonic VP2770-LED, both of which look very good, plus of course the more expensive NEC. That said, I love this monitor. The pixel issue at this point is extremely minor. This is a new monitor, but it blows everything else away, except possibly for these I mentioned, plus some high-end 30" monitors. I hope this helps.
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LG - 27EA83-D monitor
Sagittarius
Jun 7, 2013
Re: LG - 27EA83-D monitor
QSMcDraw
Jun 17, 2013
Re: LG - 27EA83-D monitor
GeminiMac
Jun 25, 2013
Re: LG - 27EA83-D monitor
GeminiMac
Jun 25, 2013
Re: LG - 27EA83-D monitor
sihooyin1
Apr 1, 2014
Re: LG - 27EA83-D monitor
Pictus
Apr 1, 2014
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"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"
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4,326 | View plan at https://www.dreamhomesource.com/plan/2504-square-feet-3-bedroom-2-50-bathroom-2-garage-sp97920
Plan 52-163
2504 sq/ft
3 beds
2.5 baths
42' wide
60' deep
Pricing
Plan Set
5 Copy Set
$855.00
PDF Set
$1000.00
Reproducible Set
$1000.00
Single Set
$699.00
Foundation
Slab
+$0.00
Additional Construction Sets
Each Additional Set
+$50.00/each
Audio Video Design
Each
$100.00
Construction Guide
Each
$39.00
Lighting Design
Each
$100.00
Mirror Reversed Sets
Each Additional Set
+$0.00
Full Specs & Features
Dimension
Depth : 60'
Height : 32'
Width : 42'
Area
First Floor: 1880 sq/ft
Second Floor: 624 sq/ft
*Total Square Footage only includes conditioned space and does not include garages, porches, bonus rooms, or decks.
Roof
Primary Pitch : 12:12
Roof Framing : Conventional
Roof Type : Shake
Exterior Wall Framing
Exterior Wall Finish : Brick
Framing : Wood - 2x6
Bedroom Features
Main Floor Master Bedroom
Walk In Closet
Kitchen Features
Eating Bar
Kitchen Island
Additional Room Features
Den Office Study Computer
Great Room Living Room
Loft
Storage Area
Garage Features
Rear Entry Garage
Lot Characteristics
Suited For Narrow Lot
Outdoor Spaces
Balcony
Covered Rear Porch
More
Jack & Jill Bath
Floor Plan - Main Floor
Floor Plan - Upper Floor
Questions about this plan? Visit Dreamhomesource.com today or call 1-800-447-0027
View this plan at https://www.dreamhomesource.com/plan/2504-square-feet-3-bedroom-2-50-bathroom-2-garage-sp97920
In addition to the house plans you order, you may also need a site plan that shows where the house is going to be located on the property. You might also need beams sized to accommodate roof loads specific to your region. Your home builder can usually help you with this. You may also need a septic design unless your lot is served by a sanitary sewer system. Many areas now have area-specific energy codes that also have to be followed. This normally involves filling out a simple form providing documentation that your house plans are in compliance.
To find out what documents you should expect with your house plans, see https://www.dreamhomesource.com/help/faq#faq13.
In some regions, there is a second step you will need to take to insure your house plans are in compliance with local codes. Some areas of North America have very strict engineering requirements. Examples of this would be earthquake-prone areas of California and the Pacific Coast, hurricane risk areas of the Florida, Gulf & Carolina Coasts. New York, New Jersey, Nevada, and parts of Illinois require review by a local professional as well. If you are building in these areas, it is most likely you will need to hire a state licensed structural engineer to analyze the design and provide additional drawings and calculations required by your building department. If you aren’t sure, building departments typically have a handout they will give you listing all of the items they require to submit for and obtain a building permit.
Additionally, stock plans do not have a professional stamp attached. If your building department requires one, they will only accept a stamp from a professional licensed in the state where you plan to build. In this case, you will need to take your house plans to a local engineer or architect for review and stamping. In addition, plans which are used to construct homes in Nevada are required to be drawn by a licensed Nevada architect.
Note: All sales on house plans are final. No refunds or exchanges can be given once your order has been fulfilled or once we have begun to customize a home plan to your specifications. | {
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4,327 | IDX data © 2021 Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc. All rights reserved. The data relating to real estate for sale on this web site comes in part from the Broker Reciprocity℠ Program of the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than RE/MAX Signature Properties are marked with the Broker Reciprocity℠ logo or the Broker Reciprocity℠ thumbnail logo (a little black house) and detailed information about them includes the name of the listing brokers. RE/MAX Signature Properties is not a Multiple Listing Service, nor does it offer MLS access. This website is a service of RE/MAX Signature Properties, a broker Participant of the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. By viewing the listings on this site, you are agreeing to abide by the RMLS End-User License Agreement. Data last updated 2021-12-03T13:22:41.23.
Click here for Digital Millennium Copyright Act
www.dreamsforsale.com/homes/112283178
750 El Dorado Street SE Owatonna, MN 55060
Status: Off Market
MLS #: 5689780
IDX data © 2021 Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc. All rights reserved. The data relating to real estate for sale on this web site comes in part from the Broker Reciprocity℠ Program of the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than RE/MAX Signature Properties are marked with the Broker Reciprocity℠ logo or the Broker Reciprocity℠ thumbnail logo (a little black house) and detailed information about them includes the name of the listing brokers. RE/MAX Signature Properties is not a Multiple Listing Service, nor does it offer MLS access. This website is a service of RE/MAX Signature Properties, a broker Participant of the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. By viewing the listings on this site, you are agreeing to abide by the RMLS End-User License Agreement. Data last updated 2021-12-03T13:22:41.23.
Click here for Digital Millennium Copyright Act
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The data relating to real estate for sale on this web site comes in part from the Broker Reciprocity program of the FMAAR MLS. Real estate listings other than RE/MAX Signature Properties are marked with the Broker Reciprocity logo and the view of detailed information about them includes the name of the listing broker. Information is being provided for consumers' personal, noncommercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties which consumers may be interested in purchasing. All property listing data is © 2021 Fargo-Moorhead Area Association of REALTORS®. No reproduction, compilation, retransmission or distribution of this data is permitted in any manner without the express, written permission of the Fargo-Moorhead Area Association of REALTORS®. Information provided is not guaranteed to be accurate and should be independently verified. Data last updated: 2021-12-03T13:41:33.993.
© 2021 Lake Region Association of Realtors MLS. All rights reserved. IDX information is provided exclusively for consumers' personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. Information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS or RE/MAX Signature Properties. Data last updated: 2021-12-03T13:45:00.087.
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4,328 | We offer an outstanding line of different spandex chair cover options. Our products include the sleek and sophisticated look of folding chair covers as well as the elegant and stylish look of ruched spandex. We also carry difficult to find favorites, such as metallic chair covers and striped chair covers. Our wide range of chair covers are also popular for other events including baby showers, birthday parties, anniversary parties, and more.
All of our spandex chair cover designs are made from 90% polyester and 10% spandex so they are easy to put on and remove from your event chairs. | {
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4,329 | Droog presents a unique pavilion design for Department of Design, providing a temporary hub for the Department’s trade and matchmaking fair in the World Design Capital 2014 running from 8 to 26 July in Cape Town, South Africa.
As part of the Dutch participation in Cape Town World Design Capital 2014, the pavilion will be home to 60 companies with an interest in developing business relationships in South Africa, offering collaborative opportunities in establishing sustainable solutions for the region’s quality of life.
Titled ‘FLOW’, the spectacular structure will occupy a restored Art Deco building in the original Museum District of Cape Town, seamlessly connecting the building’s two levels with a landscape of re-used materials. From second-hand bicycle seats and scrap wood to used carpet tiles and plastic crates, the entire design implements used materials sourced within Cape Town to bring it to life.
“All materials we use are sourced locally and will go back to the source afterwards. The whole process is constantly changing and adapting to what and whom we encounter there.” Eliza Mante – Designer at Studio Droog.
The core concept of the pavilion design is to solely use everything that is already available within the city, this includes services – whereby Droog has engaged with local artisans to contribute to the final design. The forest of scrap materials envelops visitors, inviting them into a new environment to foster discussion, inspire change and exchange of knowledge.
The space features a playground for kids, a café with hanging plants, house-like structures made from tessellating window and door frames, and sound-proofed walls made from egg cartons. The design reflects the shared South African and Dutch practice of introducing life back into used goods, as well as engaging the surrounding community. This is further amplified by the design’s end-of-life, where all materials will be returned to the environment to re-enter the system, through recycling, re-selling or donating. Old chairs might be returned to the carpenters, or scrap-wood resold to scrap sellers.
About Department of Design
Department of Design is a three week-long event that supports sustainability and collaboration. It is the initiative of the Government of the Netherlands as part of their contribution to World Design Capital Cape Town 2014. Representing a R4.5m (300,000 euro) investment, it brings over 60 different Dutch companies together with South African counterparts in a programme that address challenges in water, health, energy, food and urban development and how to co-create sustainable solutions.
26.06.2014 10.06.2020
Keynote by Renny Ramakers in Cape Town on July 9th
On 9 July, droog co-founder Renny Ramakers will give a keynote speech about designing the interior for Department of Design, the Dutch pavillion for World Design Capital Cape Town 2014.
If you’d like to attend the keyote, please enquire to [email protected] (subject to availability). For more info, visithttp://departmentofdesign.nl/events/keynote-renny-ramakers/ | {
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4,330 | Dropbox - TEA005 Teachers' Aides' (Independent Schools) Award 1988 July 2019 version.pdf - Simplify your life | {
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4,331 | These days viewers have a short attention span and are easily distracted. Grab their attention by asking a question or show something entertaining.
2. Your content is not interesting enough
If the content in your video is not interesting they’ll leave right away. Try to include one main benefit they’ll receive by subscribing to your channel.
3. Talking too much instead of showing
Avoid talking all the way through the video. Instead break up your video into different scenes so you’re continuously resetting the attention of your viewers.
4. Your video is too short or too long
You’ll lose the attention of your audience if you ramble on for several minutes. Your video may be too short if you fail to grab your viewers attention. Decide if your YouTube trailer is too long, too short, or just right by looking at the drop offs in the audience retention reports in YouTube Analytics.
By looking at the average watch time of your channel trailer you will be able to see if your viewers are actually watching it. My recommendation is to keep your video under 60 seconds.
That’s it!
Now you how to get viewers to watch your
channel trailer on YouTube.
And now I’d like to invite you to subscribe to my free e-course
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4,332 | An old mantra of the news business is, “if it bleeds, it leads”. If someone was murdered, it is news. That virtually no one gets murdered is not news. That, by itself, should tell you that the mainstream media cannot be relied upon as an unbiased source of climate change information.
There are lots of self-proclaimed climate experts now. They don’t need a degree in physics or atmospheric science. For credentials, they only need to care and tell others they care. They believe the Earth is being murdered by humans and want the media to spread the word.
Most people do not have the time or educational background to understand the global warming debate, and so defer to the consensus of experts on the subject. The trouble is that no one ever says exactly what the experts agree upon.
When you dig into the details, what the experts agree upon in their official pronouncements is rather unremarkable. The Earth has warmed a little since the 1950s, a date chosen because before that humans had not produced enough CO2 to really matter. Not enough warming for most people to actually feel, but enough for thermometers to pick up the signal buried in the noise of natural weather swings of many tens of degrees and spurious warming from urbanization effects. The UN consensus is that most of that warming is probably due to increasing atmospheric CO2 from fossil fuel use (but we really don’t know for sure).
For now, I tend to agree with this consensus.
And still I am widely considered a climate denier.
Why? Because I am not willing to exaggerate and make claims that cannot be supported by data.
Take researcher Roger Pielke, Jr. as another example. Roger considers himself an environmentalist. He generally agrees with the predictions of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regarding future warming. But as an expert in severe weather damages, he isn’t willing to support the lie that severe weather has gotten worse. Yes, storm damages have increased, but that’s because we keep building more infrastructure to get damaged.
So, he, too is considered a climate denier.
What gets reported by the media about global warming (aka climate change, the climate crisis, and now the climate emergency) is usually greatly exaggerated, half-truths, or just plain nonsense. Just like the economy and economists, it is not difficult to find an expert willing to provide a prediction of gloom and doom. That makes interesting news. But it distorts the public perception of the dangers of climate change. And because it is reported as “science”, it is equated with truth.
In the case of climate change news, the predicted effects are almost universally biased toward Armageddon-like outcomes. Severe weather events that have always occurred (tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, droughts) are now reported with at least some blame placed on your SUV.
The major media outlets have so convinced themselves of the justness, righteousness, and truthfulness of their cause that they have banded together to make sure the climate emergency is not ignored. As reported by The Guardian, “More than 60 news outlets worldwide have signed on to Covering Climate Now, a project to improve coverage of the emergency”.
The exaggerations are not limited to just science. The reporting on engineering related to proposed alternative sources of energy (e.g. wind and solar) is also biased. The reported economics are biased. Unlimited “free” energy is claimed to be all around us, just waiting to be plucked from the unicorn tree.
And for most of America (and the world), the reporting is not making us smarter, but dumber.
Why does it matter? Who cares if the science (or engineering or economics) is exaggerated, if the result is that we stop polluting?
Besides the fact that there is no such thing as a non-polluting energy source, it matters because humanity depends upon abundant, affordable energy to prosper. Just Google life expectancy and per capita energy use. Prosperous societies are healthier and enjoy longer lives. Expensive sources of energy forced upon the masses by governmental fiat kill poor people simply because expensive energy exacerbates poverty, and poverty leads to premature death. As philosopher Alex Epstein writes in his book, The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels, if you believe humans have a right to thrive, then you should be supportive of fossil fuels.
We don’t use wind and solar energy because it is economically competitive. We use it because governments have decided to force taxpayers to pay the extra costs involved and allowed utilities to pass on the higher costs to consumers. Wind and solar use continue to grow, but global energy demand grows even faster. Barring some new energy technology (or a renewed embrace of nuclear power), wind and solar are unlikely to supply more than 10% of global energy demand in the coming decades. And as some European countries have learned, mandated use of solar and wind comes at a high cost to society.
Not only the media, but the public education system is complicit in this era of sloppy science reporting. I suppose most teachers and journalists believe what they are teaching and reporting on. But they still bear some responsibility for making sure what they report is relatively unbiased and factual.
I would much rather have teachers spending more time teaching students how to think and less time teaching them what to think.
Climate scientists are not without blame. They, like everyone else, are biased. Virtually all Earth scientists I know view the Earth as “fragile”. Their biases affect their analysis of uncertain data that can be interpreted in multiple ways. Most are relatively clueless about engineering and economics. I’ve had discussions with climate scientists who tell me, “Well, we need to get away from fossil fuels, anyway”.
And maybe we do, eventually. But exaggerating the threat can do more harm than good. The late Stephen Schneider infamously admitted to biased reporting by scientists. You can read his entire quote and decide for yourself whether scientists like Dr. Schneider let their worldview, politics, etc., color how they present their science to the public. The unauthorized release of the ‘ClimateGate’ emails between IPCC scientists showed how the alarmist narrative was maintained by undermining alternative views and even pressuring the editors of scientific journals. Even The Guardian seemed shocked by the misbehavior.
It’s fine to present the possibility that human-caused global warming could be very damaging, which is indeed theoretically possible. But to claim that large and damaging changes have already occurred due to increasing CO2 in the atmosphere is shoddy journalism. Some reporters get around the problem by saying that the latest hurricane might not be blamed on global warming directly, but it represents what we can expect more of in a warming world. Except that, even the UN IPCC is equivocal on the subject.
Sea level rise stories in the media, as far as I can tell, never mention that sea level has been rising naturally for as long as we have had global tide gauge measurements (since the 1850s). Maybe humans are responsible for a portion of the recent rise, but as is the case for essentially all climate reporting, the role of nature is seldom mentioned, and the size of the problem is almost always exaggerated. That worsening periodic tidal flooding in Miami Beach is about 50% due to sinking of reclaimed swampland is never mentioned.
There are no human fingerprints of global warming. None. Climate change is simply assumed to be mostly human-caused (which is indeed possible), while our knowledge of natural climate change is almost non-existent.
Computerized climate models are programmed based upon the assumption of human causation. The models produce human-caused climate change because they are forced to produce no warming (be in a state of ‘energy balance’) unless CO2 is added to them.
As far as we know, no one has ever been killed by human-caused climate change. Weather-related deaths have fallen dramatically — by over 90% — in the last 100 years.
Whose child has been taught that in school? What journalist has been brave enough to report that good news?
In recent years I’ve had more and more people tell me that their children, grandchildren, or young acquaintances are now thoroughly convinced we are destroying the planet with our carbon dioxide emissions from burning of fossil fuels. They’ve had this message drilled into their brains through news reporting, movies, their teachers and professors, their favorite celebrities, and a handful of outspoken scientists and politicians whose knowledge of the subject is a mile wide but only inches deep.
In contrast, few people are aware of the science papers showing satellite observations that reveal a global greening phenomenon is occurring as a result of more atmospheric CO2.
Again I ask, whose child has been taught this in school? What journalist dares to report any positive benefits of CO2, without which life on Earth would not exist?
No, if it’s climate news, it’s all bad news, all the time.
More Examples of Media Bias
Here are just a few recent (and not-so-recent) examples of media reporting which only make matters worse and degrade the public debate on the subject of climate change. Very often what is reported is actually weather-related events that have always occurred with no good evidence that they have worsened or become more frequent in the last 60+ years that humans could be at least partly blamed.
The Amazon is burning
A few days ago, The Guardian announced Large swathes of the Amazon rainforest are burning. I don’t know how this has suddenly entered the public’s consciousness, but for those of us who keep track of such things, farmland and some rainforest in Amazonia and adjacent lands has been burned by farmers for many decades during this time of year so they can plant crops. This year is not exceptional in this regard, yet someone decided to make an issue of it this year. In fact, it looks like 2019 might be one of the lowest years for biomass burning. Deforestation there has gone down dramatically in the last 20 years.
The rainforest itself does not burn in response to global warming, and in fact warming in the tropics has been so slow that it is unlikely that any tropical resident would perceive it in their lifetime. This is not a climate change issue; it’s a farming and land use issue.
Greenland Is rapidly melting
The Greenland ice sheet gains new snow every year, and gravity causes the sheet to slowly flow to the sea where ice is lost by calving of icebergs. How much ice resides in the sheet at any given time is based upon the balance between gains and losses.
During the summer months of June, July, and August there is more melting of the surface than snow accumulation. The recent (weather-related) episode of a Saharan air mass traveling through western Europe and reaching Greenland led to a few days of exceptional melt. This was widely reported as having grave consequences.
Forbes decided to push the limits of responsible journalism with a story title, Greenland’s Massive Ice Melt Wasn’t Supposed to Happen Until 2070. But the actual data show that after this very brief period (a few days) of strong melt, conditions then returned to normal.
The widely reported Greenland surface melt event around 1 August 2019 (green oval) was then followed by a recovery to normal in the following weeks (purple oval), which was not reported by the media.
Of course, only the brief period of melt was reported by the media, further feeding the steady diet of biased climate information we have all become accustomed to.
Furthermore, after all of the reports of record warmth at the summit of the ice cap, it was found that the temperature sensor readings were biased too warm, and the temperature never actually went above freezing.
Was this reported with the same fanfare as the original story? Of course not. The damage has been done, and the thousands of alarmist news stories will live on in perpetuity.
This isn’t to say that Greenland isn’t losing more ice than it is gaining, but most of that loss is due to calving of icebergs around the edge of the sheet being fed by ice flowing downhill. Not from blast-furnace heating of the surface. It could be the loss in recent decades is a delayed response to excess snow accumulation tens or hundreds of years ago (I took glaciology as a minor while working on my Ph.D. in meteorology). No one really knows because ice sheet dynamics is complicated with much uncertainty.
My point is that the public only hears about these brief weather events which are almost always used to promote an alarmist narrative.
July 2019 was the hottest month on record
The yearly, area-averaged surface temperature of the Earth is about 60 deg. F. It has been slowly and irregularly rising in recent decades at a rate of about 0.3 or 0.4 deg. F per decade.
So, let’s say the average temperature reaches 60.4 deg. F rather than a more normal 60 deg. F. Is “hottest” really the best adjective to use to inform the public about what is going on?
Here’s a geographic plot of the July 2019 departures from normal from NOAA’s Climate Forecast System model.
July 2019 surface temperature departures from normal. The global average is only 0.3 deg. C (0.5 deg. F) above the 1981-2010 average, and many areas were below normal in temperature. (Graphic courtesy WeatherBell.com).
Some areas were above normal, some below, yet the headlines of “hottest month ever” would make you think the whole Earth had become an oven of unbearable heat.
Of course, the temperature changes involved in new record warm months is so small it is usually less than the uncertainty level of the measurements. And, different global datasets give different results. Monitoring global warming is like searching for a climate needle in a haystack of weather variability.
Bait and Switch: Models replacing observations
There is an increasing trend toward passing off climate model projections as actual observations in news reports. This came up just a few days ago when I was alerted to a news story that claimed Tuscaloosa, Alabama is experiencing twice as many 100+ deg. F days as it used to. To his credit, the reporter corrected the story when it was pointed out to him that no such thing has happened, and it was a climate model projection that (erroneously) made such a “prediction”.
Another example happened last year with a news report that the 100th Meridian climate boundary in the U.S. was moving east, with gradual drying starting to invade the U.S. Midwest agricultural belt. But, once again, the truth is that no such thing has happened. It was a climate model projection, being passed off as reality. Having worked with grain-growing interests for nearly 10 years, I addressed this bit of fake climate news with actual precipitation measurements here.
Al Gore and Bill Nye’s global warming in a jar experiment
This is one of my favorites.
As part of Al Gore’s Climate Reality Project, Bill Nye produced a Climate 101 video of an experiment where two glass jars with thermometers in them were illuminated by lamps. One jar had air in it, the other had pure CO2. The video allegedly shows the jar with CO2 in it experiencing a larger temperature rise than the jar with just air in it.
Of course, this was meant to demonstrate how easy it is to show more CO2 causes warming. I’m sure it has inspired many school science experiments. The video has had over 500,000 views.
The problem is that this experiment cannot show such an effect. Any expert in atmospheric radiative transfer can tell you this. The jars are totally opaque to infrared radiation anyway, the amount of CO2 involved is far too small, the thermometers were cheap and inaccurate, the lamps cannot be exactly identical, the jars are not identical, and the “cold” of outer space was not included the experiment. TV meteorologist Anthony Watts demonstrated that Bill Nye had to fake the results through post-production video editing.
The warming effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 is surprisingly difficult to demonstrate. The demonstration is largely a theoretical exercise involving radiative absorption calculations and a radiative transfer model. I believe the effect exists; I’m just saying that there is no easy way to demonstrate it.
The trouble is that this fraudulent video still exists, and many thousands of people are being misled into believing that the experiment is evidence of how obvious it is to
Greta Thunberg’s sailboat trip
The new spokesperson for the world’s youth regarding concerns over global warming is 16-year-old Swede Greta Thunberg. Greta is travelling across the Atlantic on what CNN describes as a “zero-emissions yacht” to attend the UN Climate Action Summit on September 23 in New York City.
To begin with, there is no such thing as a zero-emissions yacht. A huge amount of energy was required to manufacture the yacht, and it transports so few people so few miles over its lifetime the yacht is a wonderful example of the energy waste typical of the lifestyles of the wealthy elite. Four (!) people will need to fly from Europe to the U.S. to support the return of the yacht to Europe after Greta is delivered there.
The trip is nothing more than a publicity stunt, and it leads to further disinformation regarding global energy use. In fact, it works much better as satire. Imagine if everyone who traveled across the ocean used yachts rather than jet airplanes. More energy would be required, not less, due to the manufacture of tens of thousands of extra yachts which inefficiently carry few passengers on relatively few, very slow trips. In contrast, the average jet aircraft will travel 50 million miles in its lifetime. Most people don’t realize that travel by jet is now more fuel efficient than travel by car.
The Greta boat trip story is in so many ways the absolute worst way to raise awareness of climate issues, unless you know knothing of science, engineering, or economics. It’s like someone who is against eating meat consuming three McDonalds cheeseburgers to show how we should change our diets. It makes zero sense.
I could give many more examples of the media helping to destroy the public’s ability to have a rational discussion about climate change, how much is caused by humans, and what can or should be done about it.
Instead, the media chooses to publish only the most headline-grabbing stories, and the climate change issue is then cast as two extremes: either you believe the “real scientists” who all agree we are destroying the planet, or you are a knuckle-dragging 8th-grade educated climate denier with guns and racist tendencies.
466 Responses to “How the Media Help to Destroy Rational Climate Debate”
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Charles Rotter says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:26 AM
Fist Balls
Reply
Joe says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:39 AM
Spot on.
Reply
Harry Cummingsl says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:04 AM
I do wonder why and where people think they are going with.this. The only consolation I have is the world has had and endless supply of doomsters (end of the world) and they are always wrong but you have to admire there lack of self doubt
Hope the backs ok
Regards Harry
Reply
Harry Cummings says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:07 AM
Sorry ……their
Regards
Reply
Pete Finnegan says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:08 AM
Your article articulates the nearly undetectable sanity signal amidst the climate change noise. Good S/N ratio. Thank you.
Reply
Gord Elliott says:
August 25, 2019 at 12:37 PM
You state
“The UN consensus is that most of that warming is probably due to increasing atmospheric CO2 from fossil fuel use (but we really dont know for sure).
For now, I tend to agree with this consensus.”
Why do you “tend to agree with this consensus”?
Reply
Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says:
August 25, 2019 at 12:59 PM
It has the best evidence supporting the theory in terms of measurements of quantitative radiative effects of CO2. But that’s partly just an accident of history since the theory was needed for satellite temperature sounding to support numerical weather prediction.
Reply
xenomoly says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:15 PM
Do you think there is anything to the idea that the ozone and thermosphere response to solar cycle could lead the jet stream to more states of meridional flow when the sun is in low activity – thus causing more heat from the tropics to get dumped into the arctic and antarctic – and radiate away? When the solar cycle is in high activity the zonal flow of the jet stream and lower frequency of Rossby waves tend to keep warm air in the lower latitudes – allowing for greater landmass heating?
It always seemed to me that the change in jetstream flow would have a wide ranging impact that is not demonstrated in the global circulation models.
It also always concerned me that GCMs assume a very low amount of geological heating of the deep ocean. We are on a red hot nickel and iron ball – all that energy has to pass through the atmosphere before it is dumped into space. Is it possible that deep water warming periodically wells up and causes atmospheric warming?
I dunno. I just don’t trust the institutions because of the amount of exaggeration and dissembling by people that are ostensibly charged with public communication about science. I certainly accept that CO2 responds to IR by heating up – but I have a hard time accepting the claims being made about catastrophe given the history of the planet and its very high CO2 in the past.
Reply
Richard Greene says:
August 26, 2019 at 9:31 AM
Dr. Spencer agrees with the climate consensus belief for no logical reason.
Saying “but we don’t really know for sure” does NOT change that.
Therefore, Dr. Spencer is WRONG.
.
.
HE WROTE:
“The UN consensus is that most of that warming is probably due to increasing atmospheric CO2 from fossil fuel use (but we really dont know for sure).
For now, I tend to agree with this consensus.
And still I am widely considered a climate denier.
Why? Because I am not willing to exaggerate
and make claims that cannot be supported by data.”
.
.
.
BUT … YOU … JUST … DID !
“Most” commonly means “over 50%”:.
You have no idea what the actual percentage is.
No one else does.
Therefore, you have a belief NOT supported by data.
That’s NOT real science.
The right answer is “we don’t know”
— and that’s why we need scientists.
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Entropic man says:
August 26, 2019 at 12:56 PM
If you look at the statistics in a little more detail you find that the lower 95% confidence bound for the warming estimate is that 50% of the warming is anthropogenic. The upper bound is 160%.
The mid range figure is 108%.ie we have converted a cooling rate of 0.016C/decade into a warming rate of 0.2C/decade.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 5:05 PM
Em,
Does that mean that somebody is guessing that there is 1 chance in 20 that the even money guess might or might not be wrong?
Complete pseudoscientific GHE true believer fantasy, certainly not science.
No GHE. CO2 heats nothing.
Cheers.
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Gordon Robertson says:
August 27, 2019 at 1:40 AM
richard greene…”Dr. Spencer agrees with the climate consensus belief for no logical reason.
Saying but we dont really know for sure does NOT change that.
Therefore, Dr. Spencer is WRONG”.
No, Richard, you are wrong. Roy stated the facts, we don’t really know.
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Richard Greene says:
August 28, 2019 at 9:20 AM
Mr. Robertson:
Mr. Spencer wrote:
“The UN consensus is that most of that warming is probably due to increasing atmospheric CO2 from fossil fuel use … For now, I tend to agree with this consensus.”
The consensus is a popular guess.
The correct answer is between 0% and 100%.
“Over 50%” is a middle of the road compromise.
No one knows the correct percentage.
If Mr. Spencer agrees with this popular vote consensus, then he is WRONG, even though it is obvious that his agreement is not very strong.
I typed this slow, Mr. Robertson, so even YOU could understand.
In my opinion, Mr. Spencer’s UAH numbers keep the climate alarmists from doing even more “adjusting” … and claiming even more surface global warming. (RSS used to be another “check and balance” … until their arbitrary warming “adjustments” in 2016)
Have a Nice Day
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Armando says:
August 25, 2019 at 12:38 PM
‘Climate change’ and the end of reason.
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Stephen P Anderson says:
August 25, 2019 at 1:28 PM
How can 4% of annual CO2 emissions be responsible for most of the temperature change? Isn’t today’s temperature range within the historical range of the last several interglacials according to the best data? Aren’t the planet’s current CO2 levels closer to the bottom of the range historically (at least over the last billion years)? What’s the temperature of the planet supposed to be?
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Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says:
August 25, 2019 at 2:06 PM
So many questions…
1) Because 4% of annual emissions are probably responsible for close to 100% of the atmospheric CO2 increase. We produce twice what is necessary to explain that increase….nature takes out the extra. A simple model matches that assumption very well: http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Simple-CO2-model-fit-Mauna-Loa-Period.jpg
2) Today’s temperatures might well be in the range of very long-term natural variability. Not sure how that is relevant, since the orbital parameters are not changing on the time scale of 100 years or so.
3) Yes, I suppose CO2 levels are currently low compared to many millions of years ago. Not sure how that is relevant to what is causing warming today.
4) I have no idea what the temperature of the planet is “supposed to be”.
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Chic Bowdrie says:
August 25, 2019 at 4:02 PM
Re: 1), Physicist Ed Berry published a paper indicating that most of the CO2 rise is natural and only 5% contributed by humanity. Dr. Berry argues that your “model has many variables available to adjust so a fit to the Mauna Loa data is guaranteed,” whereas “the significance of the fit by [his] Physics Model is that it comes with physical constraints that the other models do not have. The Physics Model [residence time] must be 4 years and natural CO2 must be 95 percent of atmospheric CO2.”
https://edberry.com/blog/climate-physics/agw-hypothesis/human-co2-emissions-have-little-effect-on-atmospheric-co2/
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Stephen P Anderson says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:43 PM
Dr. Spencer,
I’ll only ask questions about your first point. On what basis can you say “4% of annual emissions are probably responsible for close to 100% of the atmospheric CO2 increase”? If nature takes out 50% now did it also take out 50% in 1950? How does it know to only take out 50%? Will it continue to take out 50% in the future? If it can take out 96ppm of natural CO2 why can it only take out 2ppm more? If it could take out approximately 75ppm 70 years ago why could it only take out about 1 ppm more then? How does it differentiate between a man made CO2 molecule and a natural CO2 molecule? How does it differentiate so precisely at 50% to fit your model? What is the scientific basis for your assertion that natural CO2 lasts for only 4 years in the atmosphere but man made CO2 lasts for decades or centuries?
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Nate says:
August 26, 2019 at 9:32 AM
“Physicist Ed Berry published a paper indicating that most of the CO2 rise is natural and only 5% contributed by humanity”
Ed Berry never mentions some rather important facts that detract from his ‘analogies’
The 95% of CO2 input to the atmosphere that is natural is equal to the 95% natural output. It is seasonal and Oscillatory.
The Anthro CO2 is NOT. Therefore a large percentage of it accumulates.
‘Berry argues that your “model has many variables available to adjust so a fit to the Mauna Loa data is guaranteed’
FALSE. The model Roy showed was very simple with a minimal number of physically motivated parameters.
‘
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Stephen P Anderson says:
August 26, 2019 at 1:54 PM
Wrong. You need to read more and pay attention this time. He addresses it and so does Murray Salby.
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Stephen P Anderson says:
August 26, 2019 at 2:01 PM
Also, I do agree with Dr. Spencer’s assertion that media help destroy rational climate debate. It is because they are the PROFESSIONAL propagandist wing of the leftist Democrat Party (now finally revealing themselves for what they are). It is about furthering the leftist agenda. Hey media, why don’t you ask your brethren in Cuba or China how much fun it is to be a journalist in those leftist states?
Nate says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:55 PM
‘Wrong. You need to read more and pay attention this time. ‘
Which parts deal with the oscillatory nature of natural CO2?
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Stephen P Anderson says:
August 26, 2019 at 5:06 PM
Nate,
Also, Salby talks about how CO2 lags temperature on both short and long time scales. It lags on short time scales as the time integral of temperature so that it is 90 degrees out of phase with temperature. If you look at temperature as it oscillates seasonally then CO2 oscillates 90 degrees out of phase with temperature. As temperature oscillates as a sine wave CO2 oscillates as a cosine wave. Salby also talks about the order of magnitudes of anthropogenic emission versus natural emission how it is an order of magnitude smaller so it isn’t really seen on the measurements. CO2 follows temperature, not the other way around. CO2 level progresses as the time integral of temperature. Salby demonstrates this in his series of lectures.
Stephen P Anderson says:
August 26, 2019 at 5:17 PM
Nate,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1cGqL9y548&t=860s
Stephen P Anderson says:
August 26, 2019 at 5:19 PM
Nate,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGZqWMEpyUM&t=447s
Nate says:
August 26, 2019 at 8:45 PM
I have seen the Salby lectures before. There are several distortions of the facts that he makes, with axes, the fact that short term correlations to CO2 and temperature are well-known ENSO effects, and but do not explain the long term rise in CO2.
He has no plausible mechanism for a 1 degree rise in temperature to increase CO2 by 100 ppm.
And this is WAY larger than the 10 ppm/degree rise observed during the last glacial transition.
Then there are the isotopic signatures that he cannot explain.
Much much more.
bill hunter says:
August 26, 2019 at 9:00 PM
The problem with CO2 alarmism is that now for a hundred and fifty to 200 years of the industrial age mankind’s progress has far outpaced any negative effects of CO2. In fact, its difficult to see any at all. Lifeforms have adapted and seem none the worse for the wear, but mankinds progress is off the charts.
There are lots of things we could spend money on to fix. Priorities for that have been all twisted up for over a generation.
The more usual process of first identifying the adverse effect, prioritizing it, then getting around to fix it has worked amazingly well for perhaps mankinds longest ever increase in prosperity, health, and longevity.
All have not shared in that but hardly has there been any population going backwards either. People really are continuing to die early from diseases, some places still need programs that actually work to clean up water and air quality rather than continuing to throw useless money at the problem and get nothing done because the recipients of the money have more political connections than track records of success.
Here we are spending many billions just in search of a problem. Climate monitoring is essential. The British Empire and the US built what we have on a combination of understanding the natural environment and science. But its crazy to be throwing money at solutions in search of problems.
Stephen P Anderson says:
August 28, 2019 at 8:35 AM
Nate,
He doesn’t really address the mechanism. He discusses or alludes to it in his text. He just demonstrates that most of the CO2 increase has been due to natural emission. The cause of the natural emission increase he correlates to temperature. Also, as far as isotopic discussion of carbon he discusses the decay of Carbon 14 in the atmosphere after the ban on atmospheric nuclear bomb testing which supported his view of a very short residence time for CO2 in the atmosphere and not a long one assumed by the IPCC.
Stephen P Anderson says:
August 28, 2019 at 8:41 AM
Also, he does have a lecture where he talks about Carbon 12 and Carbon 13 ratios in one of his graphs. I’ll try to find it.
Stephen P Anderson says:
August 28, 2019 at 9:24 AM
Nate,
Do you have his text? He talks about the isotopic composition of carbon in the atmosphere and elsewhere in sections 1.2.4 and 17.3. He says that the ratio of carbon 13 to carbon 12 in the atmosphere could support the view that the increase is due to fossil fuel emissions. But, he also states that this view has ignored other possible sources of C13 such as natural sources like vegetation decay. He also says the isotopic composition in the oceans would essentially be the same as in the atmosphere. He essentially states there isn’t enough information in this area.
Nate says:
August 28, 2019 at 10:03 AM
Stephen,
‘He doesnt really address the mechanism. He discusses or alludes to it in his text. He just demonstrates that most of the CO2 increase has been due to natural emission. The cause of the natural emission increase he correlates to temperature.’
As every scientist knows or should know, correlation is not causation.
When you have a correlation between 3 variables, in this case, emissions, concentration, and temperature, there could be several possible causal relationships.
To establish what causes what, you need to find a causal mechanism that is credible, and preferably makes a quantitative prediction.
We do have a well established mechanism for emissions to CAUSE concentration to increase, and it is simple. And it is in quantitative agreement: the emissions match approximately the accumulations when one looks at atmosphere, ocean, and land concentrations, decade by decade.
We also have an established mechanism for CO2 concentration to increase temperature. We can debate whether all or only part of the temp rise has been caused by this.
Whereas any causal relationship between temperature and concentration is pure speculation, with no quantitative prediction to test. The known effect of outgassing from a warming ocean leads to way too small a rise in concentration.
And that would leave unexplained the mechanism for temperature to rise in the first place.
Chic Bowdrie says:
August 27, 2019 at 10:02 AM
Nate,
In the comments after Dr. Spencer posted his simple model, you and Bart debated the implications: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/04/a-simple-model-of-the-atmospheric-co2-budget/#comment-349006
You objected to Bart’s phraseology, you can fit any set of signals to any series you want. It isnt meaningful. calling it “a ridiculous assertion.” In fact, to Dr. Spencer’s model, I added a simple one term exponential input from natural sources to the same human emissions data, modified the removal rate constant, and fit the data nearly as well as Dr. Spencer. If you want to claim otherwise, show the proof that it can’t be done.
Your last comment before the conclusion of your discussion with Bart was “No additional natural inputs are needed to obtain an excellent fit, except for volcanic activity (which he could have tried to model and include).”
Natural inputs are sufficient to show that a similar fit can be made using realistic estimates of natural emissions that are around 20 times that of human emissions. IOW, Dr. Spencer’s fit is insufficient to prove that humans have caused all the rise in atmospheric CO2.
Reply
Nate says:
August 27, 2019 at 6:18 PM
Chic,
I made a number of points in that discussion, for example:
“Well, the accumulation rate has tracked the human emission rate, as Roy shows, decade by decade, for 6 decades, and with larger error for 12 decades.
Carbon has been accumulating in the ocean and biosphere, also tracking the rate of emissions.
And as noted, the total accumulation matches quantitatively (within uncertainty) to the total emitted.
The alternative model suggests that these are a streak of coincidences.
And it suggests that while all the anthro carbon has been gobbled up by nature and hidden somewhere, nature has kindly replaced it, decade by decade, with an identical amount of natural CO2.
I call this the ‘Body Snatchers’ scenario. IOW it is science fiction, and not even realistic science fiction.”
I made the point that Dr Roys model is physically motivated, and fits extremely well over many decades. Its not the only model that could work, but it is probably the simplest, with very few parameters.
You’ll have to show us what you did in some detail.
The natural sources of CO2 are large, but seasonal, oscillatory, and average to approx zero every year.
For example the large deciduous forests of the NH land gobble up huge amounts of carbon in NH spring/summer as they leaf out. Then in Fall-Winter they stop gobbling it up, and drop the leaves which decay and emit some carbon, producing a 2-3 ppm oscillation.
If you have added a large non-oscillatory natural input, then what is the physical motivation for that? What is the source of this new influx?
Chic Bowdrie says:
August 27, 2019 at 7:07 PM
Nate,
“The alternative model suggests that these are a streak of coincidences.”
No, the alternative model shows that the Mauna Loa data can be reasonably explained by a scenario other than human emissions contribute all of the rise.
“The natural sources of CO2 are large, but seasonal, oscillatory, and average to approx zero every year.”
I think you wrote that in April without support.
“If you have added a large non-oscillatory natural input, then what is the physical motivation for that? What is the source of this new influx?”
If you review what Bart wrote, you will find his explanation that increasing CO2 follows from increasing temperature.
Here’s my modification of Spencer’s model:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/7tqog25c4ofxnu9/Spencer%20CO2%20model.xls?dl=0
Nate says:
August 28, 2019 at 6:40 AM
Chic,
‘The alternative model suggests that these are a streak of coincidences.’
“No, the alternative model shows that the Mauna Loa data can be reasonably explained by a scenario other than human emissions contribute all of the rise.”
You have not explained the coincidental and excellent match to human emissions with no arbitrary additional mystery sources.
It seems what you have done is add a new preindustrial source of 80. Then this grows to 111 today.
What is the rationale for this new source and how it changes over time?
How is that physically motivated? It seems completely arbitrary.
In contrast, in Dr Roys model, there are only KNOWN sources.
The physical motivation is that there are sinks, that respond to any imbalance with a time constant.
‘The natural sources of CO2 are large, but seasonal, oscillatory, and average to approx zero every year.’
“I think you wrote that in April without support”
The support comes from decades of observations and successful modeling of of Earths carbon cycle which has seasonal oscillations from various sources.
AND the highly stable ppm in preindustrial ice cores for 15000 years. If you look at Law Dome data which has ~ 20 y time resolution, the change in ppm from MWP to LIA is 6 ppm.
SIX PPM. IOW nowhere near large enough given the estimated drop in temperature of 0.5C
This data cannot be simply dismissed.
“If you have added a large non-oscillatory natural input, then what is the physical motivation for that? What is the source of this new influx?�
“If you review what Bart wrote, you will find his explanation that increasing CO2 follows from increasing temperature.”
There is no plausible physical/chemical model that anyone has put forward that will give a 40% rise in concentration from a 1 Kelvin, (0.3 %) rise in temperature.
Feel free to propose one.
Chic Bowdrie says:
August 28, 2019 at 9:39 AM
Nate,
“You have not explained the coincidental and excellent match to human emissions with no arbitrary additional mystery sources.”
I did, but you are too stuck in your confirmationally biased mindset to see another point of view.
“What is the rationale for this new source and how it changes over time? How is that physically motivated? It seems completely arbitrary.”
The natural sources of CO2 are not new sources. As temperature rises and CO2 becomes less soluble in water, it is likely that the ocean sink backs up and the atmospheric source increases in CO2. Perhaps a similar phenomenon occurs with land-based exchange favoring a gain over a loss of naturally produced CO2.
“In contrast, in Dr Roys model, there are only KNOWN sources.”
Yes, one, because all other sources are assumed cancelled by an unproven assumption that they have an equal and constant sink.
“The support comes from decades of observations and successful modeling of of Earths carbon cycle which has seasonal oscillations from various sources.”
I didn’t realize they did that before 1950, let alone 1750.
“This data cannot be simply dismissed.”
No, but it can be explained to some degree. The antarctic ice cores generally have lower resolution than Greenland’s and the variability of the latter is much greater. Do you know how much mixing occurs during the 60 years or so that it takes for CO2 to be trapped in ice bubbles, if in fact they can be? I don’t.
We already have an oscillatory natural input that is 20 times greater than the human emissions input. Why do I need a non-oscillatory one?
I agree that a small temperature increase is inadequate to explain all the rise in natural emissions. However, land use changes due to population increase may compensate for the difference.
What I would like you to explain is how a sink knows the difference between a human produced CO2 molecule and a natural one?
Nate says:
August 28, 2019 at 10:41 AM
Uggh,
“Nate,
‘You have not explained the coincidental and excellent match to human emissions with no arbitrary additional mystery sources.’
I did, but you are too stuck in your confirmationally biased mindset to see another point of view.”
What you have done is similar to what a defense attorney at a murder trial does. All of the available evidence points to his client’s guilt.
Cameras show he was at the scene at the right time (historical matching of emissions and concentration). No one else was there for the whole week.
His DNA was found on the victim. (Isotope analysis of atm CO2).
He owned the gun used and had motive (emissions lead to accumulation, quantitative agreement).
What to do? In the closing argument the attny declares all of this simply coincidental, and speculates about other people who may have had means, motives, and opportunity.
That should not convince a jury. They are told to look only at the evidence, not speculation.
‘What is the rationale for this new source and how it changes over time? How is that physically motivated? It seems completely arbitrary.’
“The natural sources of CO2 are not new sources. As temperature rises and CO2 becomes less soluble in water, it is likely that the ocean sink backs up and the atmospheric source increases in CO2.”
Nope this is known to be WAY too small an effect. Your change over time is still arbitrary.
In contrast, in Dr Roys model, there are only KNOWN sources.
“Yes, one, because all other sources are assumed cancelled by an unproven assumption that they have an equal and constant sink.”
No not really. Other natural sources and sinks are contributing, such as ENSO producing fast variation in CO2, but not ENOUGH to accumulate very much.
The support comes from decades of observations and successful modeling of of Earths carbon cycle which has seasonal oscillations from various sources.
I didnt realize they did that before 1950, let alone 1750.’
The working out of models to explain data has been since the 1950s.
This data cannot be simply dismissed.
“No, but it can be explained to some degree. The antarctic ice cores generally have lower resolution than Greenlands and the variability of the latter is much greater. Do you know how much mixing occurs during the 60 years or so that it takes for CO2 to be trapped in ice bubbles, if in fact they can be? I dont.”
YOU are unsure about how this stuff is figured out, so therefore YOU feel comfortable dismissing it.
“We already have an oscillatory natural input that is 20 times greater than the human emissions input. Why do I need a non-oscillatory one?”
Yes. The oscillation is due mostly to the large (20C) seasonal oscillation of temperature in the hemispheres.
There is nothing comparable happening to Global annual averages.
“I agree that a small temperature increase is inadequate to explain all the rise in natural emissions.”
Yes.
“However, land use changes due to population increase may compensate for the difference.”
Speculation.
“What I would like you to explain is how a sink knows the difference between a human produced CO2 molecule and a natural one?”
An imbalance however it happens produces the same response.
Chic Bowdrie says:
August 28, 2019 at 12:49 PM
Nate,
I’m trying not to be put off by your improper quoting that leads to confusion over who wrote what. One thing I’ve noticed is that certain font quotes are lost copying and pasting. I would suggest using notepad, but it even happens there sometimes.
There are two things you seem not to understand and/or admit.
1) Natural sources of CO2 are 20 times greater than human sources at the current annual rates. Yearly fluctuations make no difference to that fact.
2) “An imbalance however it happens produces the same response.” But you are claiming, essentially and summarily, that human produced CO2 stays in the atmosphere longer than naturally produced CO2. How do you reconcile that discrepancy, if you even realize there is one?
Nate says:
August 28, 2019 at 4:47 PM
‘1) Natural sources of CO2 are 20 times greater than human sources at the current annual rates. Yearly fluctuations make no difference to that fact.’
Here’s a cool video of Co2 vs latitude vs time.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/iadv/ccgg/latgrad/latgrad_co2.mp4
You can clearly see the Earth breathing and also the incremental rise every year.
Apparently the NH breathes much more deeply. The amplitude of the oscillation is certainly bigger than the annual increment.
In the SH there is hardly any breathing, amplitude maybe comparable to the annual rise.
Just because the breathing is larger (in NH) than the annual rise, I don’t think that means it MUST be the cause of the rise.
They may be two different things.
Also interesting, seasonal oscillation in temperature might be max-min of 20 C in each hemisphere, but the CO2 oscillation was at most 10 ppm in the far North, and like 1 ppm in the deep South. So at most 0.5 ppm/C.
The global rise in temperature during this period of time was like 0.7 C, but the total rise in CO2 was like 70 ppm, so ~ 100 ppm/C
So that mismatch suggests, IMO, different mechanisms are at work.
What do you think?
Nate says:
August 28, 2019 at 4:56 PM
2) ‘An imbalance however it happens produces the same response.’ But you are claiming, essentially and summarily, that human produced CO2 stays in the atmosphere longer than naturally produced CO2. How do you reconcile that discrepancy, if you even realize there is one?”
Hmm. Well the natural oscillation is probably caused by temperature and sunlight. So that is a driven oscillation with time scale forced to be 1 year.
While the relaxation-time for a steady input or a pulse of CO2 added to the system could be, should be, much longer.
Lots of systems behave that way.
Chic Bowdrie says:
August 28, 2019 at 8:46 PM
Nate,
I think I should start over. You seem to be responding to something that has no bearing on how much of the CO2 in the current atmosphere is due to humans. The IPCC attributes most of the increase in CO2 to humans. Ed Berry, Hermann Harde, Murray Salby, and others have published papers claiming the human contribution couldn’t be much more than its share of all the sources of CO2. The CO2 from natural sources is about 20 times that of the human emissions. Therefore the fraction of CO2 in the atmosphere due to humans can’t be more than 5%. The fit that Dr. Spencer got can be just as easily found using a model with those realistic inputs, as I demonstrated. There is no reason to apply unreal constraints such as the sinks preferentially remove human emissions over natural ones.
Nate says:
August 29, 2019 at 5:58 AM
“The CO2 from natural sources is about 20 times that of the human emissions.”
” There is no reason to apply unreal constraints such as the sinks preferentially remove human emissions over natural ones.”
Seems like my posts above, which thoughtfully answered your questions, addressed these specific issues, just went into a black hole.
Now it looks like you are just sort of mindlessly repeating the same talking points over again.
Before I take the time and effort to discuss further, I’d like to know that my posts are going to be read, digested, and properly responded to.
What specifically, in my posts, do you disagree with and why? What do you not understand? How do you interpret the video differently than I do?
Chic Bowdrie says:
August 29, 2019 at 9:52 AM
I repeated my points, because (like you) I don’t think you are getting what I’m saying. Have you even read Dr. Berry’s paper? He shows that the ratio of CO2 from human emissions over that from natural emissions in the atmosphere can’t be more than the ratio of those same sources. That means at most 5%/95%. This has nothing to do with seasonal oscillations (which is why I didn’t comment on your video link). Do you get it so far?
Nate says:
August 29, 2019 at 11:29 AM
Chic,
You brought this up. We don’t agree. But if you really want to discuss, fine.
I played nice. I looked at your fit (much worse fit than Roys BTW).
I took your posts seriously. Answered your questions best I could.
But you refuse to respond to or address my answers. Not clear you bothered to read or think about them.
So what’s the point of answering?
You simply repeat the questions, and the talking points of Berry and Salby, as if I didnt answer!
That’s not really a discussion, is it?
Chic Bowdrie says:
August 29, 2019 at 11:47 AM
You leave me no choice but to “assume” you really don’t get it. Berry’s paper is not a “talking point.” How does the planet remove all of the natural sources of CO2 (20 times more than the human contribution) and leave 50% of the human sources?
Nate says:
August 29, 2019 at 4:08 PM
‘How does the planet remove all of the natural sources of CO2 (20 times more than the human contribution) and leave 50% of the human sources?’
The factor of 20 is a talking point, since it is not clear why this natural flow amplitude matters to the rise. It reflects the natural exchanges (much of it seasonal, but not all) between the ocean mixed-layer, atmosphere, and biosphere.
The ocean mixed layer and the atmosphere apparently equilibrate to roughly the same ppm (Henrys law) relatively quickly. Ocean conc do closely track atm concentrations.
The main point is the ocean mixed layer and atm contain roughly the same amount of carbon (1000 Gt). And the fast responding biosphere ~ comparable. Slow biosphere is like wood in long live trees, soils, etc.
The natural flows simply are the exchanges between the fast equilbrating reservoirs. There is no real difference in how the natural and human emissions are ‘removed’.
If a pulse of carbon is ADDED to the atmosphere, then it will quickly divide between atm, ocean and biosphere. It will continue to be exchanged, but will NOT GO AWAY.
Only after a longer time will it penetrate into middle ocean, into new forest growth, and after a very long time the deep ocean.
This is why the bomb C14 is now being detected in middle ocean layers, but only a little in the deep ocean.
Nate says:
August 29, 2019 at 5:08 PM
And the video gives us an idea of what the response of CO2 to temperature would be, quite low, 0.5 ppm/deg.
This is prob lower than it would be on longer time scale, and for the whole Earth, but still, I don’t see how we will ever get 100 pm/deg.
Henrys law for water and CO2 gives outgassing ~ 2.5%/C, ~ 10 ppm/C of warming.
But the NH biosphere is a SINK for CO2 during summer, so the two effects tend to cancel.
Chic Bowdrie says:
August 29, 2019 at 6:56 PM
Now we’re getting somewhere. The factor of 20 is not a talking point. It is known to anyone familiar with the carbon cycle. It’s in the IPCC AR5 WGI. For every GtC we emit, nature kicks in 20 GtC. That matters because the natural reverse process can’t distinguish a human emission CO2 from a natural one. Apparently we agree, since you write “There is no real difference in how the natural and human emissions are ‘removed.’” Nature doesn’t make human emission CO2 molecules wait until all the natural ones have already been sinked.
Then you go off the rails. A pulse of CO2 added to the atmosphere will go away at the same first order rate as what is already there. That is why my spreadsheet handles both human and natural emissions well (I did not take time to get a best fit and that is why you said it wasn’t that good). There is no data relevant to this discussion to support your “longer time” “new forest growth” “deep ocean” mumbo jumbo. If you are not familiar with rate constants, this will be a hard concept for you to grasp.
Why there is so much increase in CO2 due to natural causes is a separate question which we can speculate on after you are comfortable with the impossibility of nature treating two identical molecules differently as if she new where they came from in a well mixed atmosphere.
Nate says:
August 30, 2019 at 8:11 AM
” There is no data relevant to this discussion to support your “longer timeâ€� “new forest growthâ€� “deep oceanâ€� mumbo jumbo. If you are not familiar with rate constants, this will be a hard concept for you to grasp.”
Continuing to ignoring the main points that I make and facts I mentioned.
If you want anthro co2 to ‘go away’, there must be a place accessible for it to go,
It is an established fact that the ocean mixed layer ML has 1000 GT of carbon ~ the same amount as the atmosphere.
It is also an established fact that only the ML can equilibrate with the atmosphere quickly. Tracers etc show the deep ocean is simply not accessible.
Thus, the ocean sink for added co2 is simply not big enough to make it ‘go away’ any time soon.
If you can quantitatively dispute these facts, pls do so.
“after you are comfortable with the impossibility of nature treating two identical molecules differently”
Strawman, we are done with that one!
Chic Bowdrie says:
August 30, 2019 at 1:35 PM
You’ve taken a step back. Previously you stated There is no real difference in how the natural and human emissions are removed. Are you reneging on that now?
“If you want anthro co2 to go away, there must be a place accessible for it to go.”
The solubility of CO2 in seawater is at least 10 times more than current ocean concentrations. Dissolved CO2 reacts with water and forms bicarbonate which is several orders of magnitude more soluble than CO2. Any major shifts in the equilibrium equations due to increased CO2 from the atmosphere will form carbonates which precipitate out and represent a virtually infinite sink. These reactions are essentially instantaneous relative to climate time frames. To say “the ocean sink for added co2 is simply not big enough to make it go away any time soon” is ludicrous.
Nate says:
August 31, 2019 at 9:54 AM
Chic,
‘ Previously you stated There is no real difference in how the natural and human emissions are removed. Are you reneging on that now?’
No. Nowhere did I say anything like that, or anything consistent with that.
Again you ignore what I write, and substitute your own erroneous thoughts.
“The solubility of CO2 in seawater is at least 10 times more than current ocean concentrations. Dissolved CO2 reacts with water and forms bicarbonate which is several orders of magnitude more soluble than CO2. Any major shifts in the equilibrium equations due to increased CO2 from the atmosphere will form carbonates which precipitate out and represent a virtually infinite sink.”
FALSE. NOT virtually infinite. You are not being QUANTITATIVE here in estimating the SIZE of the accessible carbon reservoirs, as I did, and as standard science does.
The ocean mixed layer has a depth and VOLUME. At 100 m depth it is about 100 x smaller in volume than the volume of the atmosphere. So although you are right that, “bicarbonate which is several orders of magnitude more soluble than CO2”. But the relative volumes also matter.
Thus, as the numbers show, when the atm and ocean ML reach equilibrium, quickly, the amount of carbon stored in each is roughly the same, 1000 Gt.
And you have not disputed this.
And thus new carbon added, divides almost equally between these reservoirs.
Yes, the WHOLE OCEAN is a virtually infinite carbon sink, with 40 x as much as the atmosphere. But the whole ocean will not equilibrate with the atmosphere any time soon.
Chic Bowdrie says:
August 31, 2019 at 7:15 PM
Nate,
“No. Nowhere did I say anything like that, or anything consistent with that.”
It’s in the fifth paragraph here: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/08/how-the-media-help-to-destroy-rational-climate-debate/#comment-381323
You can change your mind, but don’t accuse me of ignoring what you write or substituting thoughts. Some of what you write is irrelevant and I sympathize with you for feeling ignored.
The average concentration of C (total inorganic carbon) in seawater from two sources both agree at about 2.2 mmol/L or 0.0264 gC/L. Based roughly on the surface area of the oceans times 100m deep, gives me 3.6 x 10^19 L of seawater containing 950 PgC or 912 GtC. Close enough to the 1000 GtC you claim. As I said this is irrelevant, because the ocean is far from saturated with either CO2 or total inorganic carbon. A doubling of atmospheric CO2 will not double the ML concentration of total inorganic carbon. This is because equilibrium rate constants drive the balance not the amounts of CO2 in the reservoirs. Use your chemistry.
Let’s try to get back on the same page. This is not just about how fast things equilibrate. It’s actually about what you think is a strawman: the ocean doesn’t treat human and natural emissions of CO2 differently.
Nate says:
September 1, 2019 at 9:28 AM
Ugggh, you are being dense, Chic.
The description of ‘when a pulse is added’ in no way claims that natural and anthro co2 are treated differently!
Just stop misreading things to match your narrative.
The description is simply agreeing with the main point, that you keep missing, that the sinks are finite.
Nate says:
September 1, 2019 at 10:11 AM
So you agree that the ocean ML has ~ the same amount of carbon as the atmosphere, 1000 Gt. But still claim, based on no real evidence, that it is still an effectively ‘infinite sink’.
As you can see, the more you read up on this, the more you can see that the real carbon cycle of the Earth is complicated. Neither you nor I understand it deeply. But other people who have made their career working it out, DO understand it deeply.
Berry and Salby are not among those people. They barely mention the complicated features of ocean chemistry, Revelle factor, the sizes of the reservoirs, etc.
Berry, with no worries about these carbon cycle details, simply assumes that reservoirs are infinite enough. He is then able to claim that mainstream science has it all wrong, and that his much much simpler model has it right. Riiight.
Look into the Revelle factor. If you do, you find that it says that for any increase in atm cO2 of x %, that the concentration of free CO2 in the ocean will increase ~ x% , but the concentration of all the types of carbon molecules in the ocean, will only go up by ~ x/10 %.
That means, when you consider relative volumes of atm and ML, that whenever NEW carbon is added to the atmosphere from any source, that the ocean ML will only absorb a fraction of it.
This is not my claim, this is just what science has found.
Nate says:
September 1, 2019 at 10:21 AM
‘Revelle factor’
I see that you were already talking about this ‘A doubling of atmospheric CO2 will not double the ML concentration of total inorganic carbon.’
Good, we are on the same page. Then do you understand why the ML will absorb a smaller fraction of any added carbon, than is left behind in the atm?
Chic Bowdrie says:
September 1, 2019 at 10:30 AM
Are you carrying on a conversation with an imaginary friend? Where did ‘when a pulse is added’ enter in?
So I repeat: Do you or do you not agree that natural and anthro CO2 are treated similarly. If they are treated the same, then the proportion of the CO2 in the atmosphere must be the same as the ratio of the inflows. How can it be otherwise?
The rates do matter, but what’s the use in discussing that if you can’t even understand chemical equilibrium, let alone your misconception that sinks are anywhere close to saturated or finite. Precipitation products are infinite as long as you continually supply more reactants.
Chic Bowdrie says:
September 1, 2019 at 11:10 AM
Yes, I still claim that 1000 GtC in the ML is essentially an infinite sink, based on standard chemical equilibria. As Le Chatelier’s principle implies, increasing the concentration of reactants will drive the reaction to the right. In this case, the right means bicarbonate and carbonate ions. Most carbonates are insoluble and that provides the infinite sink, because there is nothing left in solution to drive the reaction back to the left.
News flash! I’m not reading up on the carbon cycle that you seem to be. So provide the deep understanding that I seem to be missing. If your argument was convincing, we’d be done by now. You have provided no evidence of finite sinks. I am interested in this and will be happy for you to explain how Berry, Salby, and I are wrong. But please, no more appeals to what mainstream science has found that you don’t understand.
“Then do you understand why the ML will absorb a smaller fraction of any added carbon, than is left behind in the atm?”
Yes. When the partial pressure of CO2 increases, atmospheric CO2 dissolves as H2CO3 in solution. That forces the reaction to the right, but the right side pushes back. When a new equilibrium is reached, the newly added CO2 does not distribute equally between the atmosphere and solution. This is no reason to believe that the 5% of human emissions are preferentially retained in the atmosphere compared to 95% of the natural emissions.
Nate says:
September 1, 2019 at 1:42 PM
‘The natural flows simply are the exchanges between the fast equilbrating reservoirs. There is no real difference in how the natural and human emissions are removed.’
“So I repeat: Do you or do you not agree that natural and anthro CO2 are treated similarly.”
So I repeat: read what fucking write, not what’s in your head.
What is the pointed of talking to you if you cannot read?
Nate says:
September 1, 2019 at 2:15 PM
“Im not reading up on the carbon cycle that you seem to be.”
Then you need to start, just as Berry needs to.
“So provide the deep understanding that I seem to be missing.”
No thats not my job, as I said neither you Nor I have that.
“Then do you understand why the ML will absorb a smaller fraction of any added carbon, than is left behind in the atm?”
“Yes.”
Then your prior claims that this cannot happen, and the ML is “a virtually infinite sink” make absolutely no sense.
“let alone your misconception that sinks are anywhere close to saturated or finite.”
I never said saturated.
What I am saying (see if you can read this without spinning it in some weird way) is, simply this:
If we had only a swimming pool of ocean water, its going to come to chemical equilibrium with the atmospheric carbon concentration.
But because the pool is small in volume, if I add new CO2 to the atmosphere, the pool will remove didily squat of it, and thus 99.999% of the added CO2 will stay in the atmosphere.
Size matters, as my wife keeps insisting to me.
The ocean ML is bigger than a swimming pool, but still FINITE in SIZE, and thus will only be able to remove a Fraction of any NEW carbon added to the SYSTEM, before it reaches equilibrium with a new CO2 and carbonate concentration (not saturation!).
Consistent with what mainstream science is saying actually happens.
How are they wrong?
Chic Bowdrie says:
September 1, 2019 at 3:52 PM
“Then your prior claims that [the ML absorbing a smaller fraction of any added carbon than is left behind in the atm] cannot happen, and the ML is ‘a virtually infinite sink’ make absolutely no sense.”
Firstly, I don’t recall claiming the former and I think part of the reason it makes no sense to you is you don’t understand the chemistry.
Our disagreement is partly semantic and partly misunderstanding equilibration constants. The semantic part is how you define the fraction of added CO2 that is removed or remains. You attribute the CO2 in the atmosphere before human intervention as constant. Nevermind that it has always been umpteen times greater than our current human contribution. So you attribute all of the increase in total CO2 in the atmosphere to human emissions while at the same time agreeing that nature treats both type emissions the same. I can live with that. What you or I can’t do, however, is know exactly how much added CO2 is human or natural. The natural sources may have been adding more as well.
The other part you don’t seem to get is that a finite volume is not a factor, only saturation would put a finite constraint on the processes involved providing sufficient cations present capable of removing carbonate.
How are [mainstream scientists] wrong? By phrasing like you in ways that make it sound like all additional CO2 in the air is human caused, leading to the possibly false conclusion that stopping human emissions will prevent further increase in CO2.
Nate says:
September 1, 2019 at 6:28 PM
“Any major shifts in the equilibrium equations due to increased CO2 from the atmosphere will form carbonates which precipitate out and represent a virtually infinite sink. ”
I’d like to see some evidence or a reference for this claim.
“How are [mainstream scientists] wrong? By phrasing like you in ways that make it sound like all additional CO2 in the air is human caused”
You are not really pointing out what they have done wrong. Is it that they have misunderstood the ocean chemistry? No probably not, since you refer to Revelle’s work. Have they misunderstood the carbon cycle? How?
” the partial pressure of CO2 increases, atmospheric CO2 dissolves as H2CO3 in solution. That forces the reaction to the right, but the right side pushes back. When a new equilibrium is reached, the newly added CO2 does not distribute equally between the atmosphere and solution.”
Yes.
“This is no reason to believe that the 5% of human emissions are preferentially retained in the atmosphere compared to 95% of the natural emissions.”
How does that follow? Again there is NO PREFERENCE. There is simply new carbon added to the system, and that carbon ‘does not distribute equally between the atmosphere and solution.’
Chic Bowdrie says:
September 1, 2019 at 8:28 PM
Study this page: http://www.luckysci.com/2015/09/chemistry-lesson-calcium-carbonate-solubility/
The seawater concentration of Ca++ is 0.01 M and carbonate is around 0.0001 M. Their product is greater than the Ks for calcium carbonate meaning it is close to or over saturated depending on depth. CaCO3 solubility actually increases as temperature drops, but the ML will always be saturated. Same for magnesium carbonate.
I can’t keep going around and around saying the same thing over again, Nate. I tried to explain the semantic problem. I’m going to have to give up unless you can try to understand my view. I understand you and the IPCC and I disagree with your phraseology. It leads a novice to believe that human emissions accumulate and natural emissions don’t, which is FALSE. It’s as simple as that.
Nate says:
September 2, 2019 at 7:20 AM
“The seawater concentration of Ca++ is 0.01 M and carbonate is around 0.0001 M. Their product is greater than the Ks for calcium carbonate meaning it is close to or over saturated depending on depth.”
Ok.
What do you make of this?
“Surface waters are generally supersaturated with respect to
CaCO3. However it is rare for CaCO3 to precipitate inorganically because of complex ion-ion interactions, which inhibit
the Ca2+ ion. Magnesium (Mg2+) is one of the “competing� ions that depresses a spontaneous inorganic formation
of CaCO3 as expected from thermodynamics (e.g. Rushdi
et al., 1992). Thus it is through biological processes that
CaCO3(s) is formed in the ocean.”
from this paper:
https://www.biogeosciences.net/6/2421/2009/bg-6-2421-2009.pdf
Nate says:
September 2, 2019 at 7:55 AM
Not a semantic issue, IMO. It is either true or not true that the ocean is able to gobble up all of the anthro CO2 quickly and make it ‘go away’
From your source:
“Modern Sea Surface Ω ≈ 2-5
Sea surface is supersaturated with respect to CaCO3,
but calcium carbonates are not constantly precipitating.”
Does not agree with your earlier statement:
“carbonates which precipitate out and represent a virtually infinite sink. These reactions are essentially instantaneous relative to climate time frames.”
If not constantly precipitating to maintain equilibrium, then the ocean ML cannot be acting as an infinite sink.
Yes?
Chic Bowdrie says:
September 2, 2019 at 8:08 AM
I don’t think it is a coincidence that the seawater concentrations of Ca++, Mg++ and carbonate ions are near the limits of the solubility of their salts. Precipitation and dissolution is an equilibrium process driven only by the ions. The amount of precipitated carbonate has no effect on the equilibrium. If there are under-saturated ions, precipitates dissolve. If they are saturated, precipitation occurs. It amounts to an infinite sink for CO2. The distribution of CO2 between air and ocean has to do with equilibrium constants, not a finite sink.
Chic Bowdrie says:
September 2, 2019 at 8:26 AM
“gobble up all of the anthro CO2 quickly and make it go away.”
Boom. That is the semantic issue right there. You say “all of the anthro CO2” and I say “all of the added CO2.” They are not the same thing.
Do you really want to quibble over instantaneous relative to fast enough for precipitation to keep the ions at their usual levels? I thought you would appreciate a warmist source to help you with the equilibrium processes involved. It’s up to you to decide if it is a credible enough source to believe the “not constantly precipitating” interpretation.
Nate says:
September 2, 2019 at 12:18 PM
Chic, the description of the Revelle factor, as
“a measure of the resistance to atmospheric CO2 being absorbed by the ocean surface layer.[1] The buffer factor is used to examine the distribution of CO2 between the atmosphere and the ocean, and measures the amount of CO2 that can be dissolved in the mixed surface layer. It is named after the oceanographer Roger Revelle. The importance of his work was that he found human produced CO2 would not be easily absorbed by the oceans.[2]’
is just not consistent with your assertion that the ML “amounts to an infinite sink for CO2”
How is this standard interpretation of the Revelle factor wrong?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revelle_factor
Nate says:
September 2, 2019 at 12:24 PM
‘Boom. That is the semantic issue right there. You say ‘all of the anthro CO2′ and I say all of the added CO2. They are not the same thing.’
No, it is you guys that have made the claim that anthro CO2 is too small to produce the rise in atm concentrations, because it should NOT accumulate in the atmosphere, it should be gobbled up.
Chic Bowdrie says:
September 2, 2019 at 2:51 PM
We guys did not bring up gobbling up, you did. I’m going to explain your semantic pigheadedness one last time. You interpret the added CO2 to be all human sourced. I interpret it to be some human and some natural. You don’t seem to care how much more natural emissions could be or, more likely, don’t even realize there could be more now than in previous years. Regardless which, you attribute the rise in atmospheric CO2 to human emissions.
Your other problem is not understanding the equilibration equations involved in the Revelle factor. It could be you’re being duped by the same misleading semantic wording of the person who wrote the Wiki article: “human produced CO2 would not be easily absorbed by the oceans.” Why would human-produced CO2 be any harder to absorb than other CO2 emission?
I’ll see if I can put up some numbers to illustrate the Revelle factor as it applies to all CO2, not just human-produced.
Nate says:
September 2, 2019 at 4:04 PM
Chic,
‘I’m going to explain your semantic pigheadedness one last time.’
‘Apparently we agree, since you write ‘There is no real difference in how the natural and human emissions are ‘removed.’
Just stop with your OCD!
You guys-ie You, Berry, Salby, have consistently stated that anthro emissions are too small to account for the rise in concentrations.
‘Ed Berry, Hermann Harde, Murray Salby, and others have published papers claiming the human contribution couldn’t be much more than its share of all the sources of CO2. The CO2 from natural sources is about 20 times that of the human emissions. Therefore the fraction of CO2 in the atmosphere due to humans can’t be more than 5%.
If the human portion is only 5% of the rise, 120 ppm, then it is no more than 6 ppm.
But in the past century humans have added ~ 300 ppm to the system. But only 6 ppm remains in the atmosphere, 3%
Clearly YOU GUYS claim that the natural sinks have gobbled up 97% of it.
Mainstrean science has argued that the ocean ML has gobbled up only 30 % of the ADDED carbon. Meanwhile both natural and anthro carbon in the atmosphere-ocean ML-biosphere continues to be rapidly EXCHANGED.
Mainstream science and I are simply arguing that the ocean is NOT an infinite sink for any new ADDED carbon. That is the issue we are discussing.
Revelle factor is clearly consistent with this.
Can you make the case why 30% is not possible.
Chic Bowdrie says:
September 2, 2019 at 9:30 PM
5% of what is in the air is 0.05 x 400 ppm or 20 ppm. You really should read at least Berry’s article.
In the past century nature has added at least 20 times your 300 ppm (I have no idea where you came up with that figure). What happens is that nature then “gobbles it back up” in proportion to what the sources were, because she can’t differentiate a human CO2 emission from a natural one.
It’s no use, Nate. You don’t get it, and I can’t keep on trying to explain your blind spot. If you were getting it, you would be able to acknowledge my position. You don’t have to agree, just a simple description of my argument would suffice.
Nate says:
September 3, 2019 at 5:49 AM
“5% of what is in the air is 0.05 x 400 ppm or 20 ppm. You really should read at least Berrys article.”
Ok fine, 20 ppm. The 300 ppm was an estimate.
From AR5
“Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions since the pre-industrial era have driven large increases in the atmospheric
concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) (Figure SPM.1c). Between 1750 and 2011,
cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere were 2040 310 GtCO2. About 40% of these emissions have
remained in the atmosphere (880 35 GtCO2); the rest was removed from the atmosphere and stored on land (in plants and
soils) and in the ocean. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic CO2, causing ocean acidification.
About half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1750 and 2011 have occurred in the last 40 years (high confidence)
(Figure SPM.1d). {1.2.1, 1.2.2}’
0.129 ppm/Gt Co2 x 2000 Gt = 260 ppm. circa 2010.
You guys claim that 20 ppm of this has remained in the atmosphere, so ~ 8 %. Thus you guys claim that 92 % has been gobbled up, mostly by the nearly infinite sink of the ocean.
While the scientific literature shows that the ocean has absorbed only 30 %. Both modeling and measurements show this.
“{What happens is that nature then ‘gobbles it back up’ in proportion to what the sources were, because she cant differentiate a human CO2 emission from a natural one.”
I get that this is YOUR claim, but clearly it is WAY oversimplified, and depends on the ocean sink being effectively infinite.
The actual ocean chemistry, the ocean carbon cycle, according to the vast literature, is not as simple as you claim it to be, and therefore the ocean sink is not as large as you would like it to be.
As I said, I do not have a deep understanding of the ocean carbon cycle. I asked you to explain the discrepancy between 30% and 92%. Given your chemistry knowledge, YOU ought to be able to easily find this information.
But you seem uninterested in finding out what you are missing, and prefer to stick with the over-simplified cartoon version.
Nate says:
September 4, 2019 at 1:37 PM
Chic,
“Have you even read Dr. Berrys paper? He shows that the ratio of CO2 from human emissions over that from natural emissions in the atmosphere cant be more than the ratio of those same sources. That means at most 5%/95%.”
I reread it. Here’s what I think is wrong with his argument.
He is claiming that natural sink flux that we currently have is driven by partial pressure of Co2 in atmosphere.
He makes analogies, eg to a tire with a leak, the leak rate is proportional to pressure.
This leads him to his conclusions that the anthro CO2 can only give 5% of the rise and 95% must be natural.
But this is wrong because most of the natural sink fluxes are naturally balanced by built-in DRIVEN sources, and NOT primarily driven by partial pressure.
So he says 56 ppm is the natural sink to land, and much of this is due to plant photosynthesis. But it is BALANCED by plant respiration and decay. Photosynthesis is like myriad little pumps for CO2 driven by energy from the sun.
These are ACTIVE sinks NOT driven primarily by partial pressure of CO2. There’s evidence of a small increase in imbalance of photosynthesis vs respiration with partial pressure, but clearly that is a second-order effect.
The other big natural sink Flux is to the ocean which he says is ~ 42 ppm. Again this is BALANCED by ocean emissions. Much of this arguably is driven by temperature. The cold parts of the ocean are sinks and the warm parts are sources. And this varies throughout the year.
There is no evidence that the balance of this source-sink activity would change very much with atm partial pressure, not to first order, because its temperature driven.
So his analogy to a leak proportional to atm pressure to describe these natural sinks is poor, IMO.
In contrast, the anthro emissions are a source with no built-in balancing sink. It is like an external source in that sense.
Therefore its ONLY sink flux IS driven by partial pressure difference with the ocean and the soil, biosphere, etc.
Therefore the rise in atm pressure due to anthro is not limited to 5%.
And BTW, the FF carbon, stored over millions of years, would be a natural ultra-slow source only through volcanic activity, which is balanced by other ultra slow carbon-cycle sinks.
It has been of course converted to a fast source through emissions, and not balanced.
Chic Bowdrie says:
September 5, 2019 at 5:28 PM
“This leads him to his conclusions that the anthro CO2 can only give 5% of the rise and 95% must be natural.”
That is not his conclusion. He quotes IPCC saying nature emits 120 GtC (56 ppm) from land and 90 GtC (42 ppm) from ocean compared to only 9.7 GtC (4.6 ppm) for human emissions or about 5% of the total emissions [9.7/(120 + 90) = 4.4%]. Never mind that the natural emissions are fluid and could be more or less from year to year. His conclusion is the proportion of CO2 left in the air attributable to humans cannot be greater than 5% of 410 or 20.5 ppm. Given a nominal value of 280 for pre-industrial CO2, Berry would argue the increase due to humans is at most is 15.8% (20.5/130).
Your counter arguments to whatever conclusions you thought Berry made are so convoluted I don’t know where to start a rebuttal. Sources and sinks are not always balanced, balance does change with partial pressure (that is explicitly what the Revelle factor means), and slow vs. fast sources is irrelevant.
You just can’t rectify nature treating all sources the same with your desire to pin all the increase in CO2 on humans. Try reading the article again with an open mind and use actual data to refute him, not your preconceived notions.
Nate says:
September 6, 2019 at 2:04 PM
I have reread and thought about his logic (which is not based on data), and came up with a logical counterargument, which you have no rebuttal to.
Try reading my post(s) again with an open mind.
Nate says:
September 6, 2019 at 2:09 PM
‘ and slow vs. fast sources is irrelevant.’
Assertion, not a rebuttal.
When the SLOW is geologic time, and that changes to 1 century, that is quite relevant.
Nate says:
September 6, 2019 at 2:22 PM
‘You just cant rectify nature treating all sources the same with your desire to pin all the increase in CO2 on humans. ‘
Not a desire, it is simply most logical explanation for the data. Often a cigar is just a cigar.
While the alternative requires a series of highly improbable events, requires our hard-won understanding of the ocean carbon cycle and lots of empirical evidence to be extremely flawed.
Chic Bowdrie says:
September 6, 2019 at 8:17 PM
I don’t want to keep going around in circles with you, Nate. My rebuttal to your counter argument is that its an assertion without a coherent presentation of data supporting it. Ed Berry’s paper is replete with data, but you are too blind to see it, let alone present a logical counter argument.
“When the SLOW is geologic time, and that changes to 1 century, that is quite relevant.”
That is an assertion, not a logical argument.
“Not a desire, it is simply most logical explanation for the data.”
It’s only your opinion and potentially a naive one unless you can debunk the alternative rationally. Nothing is hard-won in climate science. There is no closed book on the ocean carbon cycle as it relates to global warming. Berry’s and other’s papers are out there and hand-waving arguments aren’t going to make them go away.
Nate says:
September 7, 2019 at 7:39 AM
Chic,
I had not appreciated this before, but here is a pretty obvious demonstration of the flaw in Berry’s model, that gets at the heart of issue.
He says:
“dL/dt = Inflow Outflow
Where L = carbon dioxide leve dL/dt = the rate of change of L
t = time”
No problem with that.
“The partial pressure of carbon dioxide sets the rate that carbon dioxide flows out of the atmosphere.
outflow to be proportional to the level,
Outflow = L / Te
where Te is a constant that has the dimension of time.”
Nope, here he loses reality. He assumes external pressure is 0, when clearly pressure in ocean and land sinks is not 0.
Much that follows depends on this wrong assumption.
Ultimately, he says
“There is no ‘permanent’ remainder of human or natural carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. If inflow is turned off, the corresponding equilibrium level will go to zero. The level will approach zero according to the 1/e residence time of 4 years.
If the inflow was turned off, the atmospheric pressure would not go to 0. The ocean CO2 has nowhere to drain to.
You have to admit, Chic, this is an absurd conclusion.
And it shows that his model is wrong for the actual atmosphere.
Chic Bowdrie says:
September 7, 2019 at 4:46 PM
Nate,
Are we reading the same article?
He does not assume external pressure is 0. Where did you get that? Here is the pertinent excerp.t regarding pressure:
“The Physics Model does not need to describe the details of
the external processes. Inflow, outflow, and e-time include all
the effects of outside processes.”
Nowhere do I find the words “permanent remainder” or “inflow is turned off” or “the level will approach zero.” You are making up a scenario that doesn’t occur. You are correct that it would become an inappropriate model if human and natural inflows stopped altogether. Of course, long before that life will cease to exist. Nice try though.
Chic Bowdrie says:
September 7, 2019 at 5:27 PM
I think the main weakness in the model is the assump.tion that the rate of absorp.tion into the biomass or oceans is proportional to atm CO2 concentration. It neglects a return process. I am working on a model that doesn’t.
Another issue that you should try to find support for is the IPCC assump.tion that natural sources have remained steady. As I demonstrated with the modified Spencer model, the data is equally well fit by an expanding natural source.
Nate says:
September 8, 2019 at 7:23 AM
“Nowhere do I find the words ‘permanent remainder’ or ‘inflow is turned off’ or ‘the level will approach zero.’ You are making up a scenario that doesn’t occur.”
Im quoting him directly. And you assume Im making it up? This is how your mind works?
This article: https://edberry.com/blog/climate-physics/agw-hypothesis/human-co2-not-change-climate/
Nate says:
September 8, 2019 at 7:32 AM
“I think the main weakness in the model is the assump.tion that the rate of absorp.tion into the biomass or oceans is proportional to atm CO2 concentration. It neglects a return process. I am working on a model that doesnt.”
Glad to see you now get the ‘convoluted’ point that I have been making.
“He is claiming that natural sink flux that we currently have is driven by partial pressure of Co2 in atmosphere.
He makes analogies, eg to a tire with a leak, the leak rate is proportional to pressure.
This leads him to his conclusions that the anthro CO2 can only give 5% of the rise and 95% must be natural.
But this is wrong because most of the natural sink fluxes are naturally balanced by built-in DRIVEN sources, and NOT primarily driven by partial pressure.”
Nate says:
September 8, 2019 at 9:46 AM
Chic,
Continued, down below
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/08/how-the-media-help-to-destroy-rational-climate-debate/#comment-385418
Gordon Robertson says:
August 27, 2019 at 1:47 AM
Roy…”1) Because 4% of annual emissions are probably responsible for close to 100% of the atmospheric CO2 increase.”
I presume Stephen was referring to the 4% that ACO2 makes up of all CO2, 96% being natural.
That naturally raises the question as to why the natural CO2, which must have been about 0.03% of atmospheric, gases did not warm the atmosphere long before ACO2 was supposed to have done it.
There is far too much of a coincidence since 1850, when the Little Ice Age ended. A mini ice age that lasted for 400 years ends and temperatures start rising. The Industrial Revolution is in the middle of the last 200 years of the LIA. Why did the IPCC not look at re-warming from the LIA?
They couldn’t, it’s not in their mandate, to find evidence of warming from anthropogenic sources.
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Entropic man says:
August 25, 2019 at 3:43 PM
Stephen P Anderson
“How can 4% of annual CO2 emissions be responsible for most of the temperature change?”
96 % of annual CO2 emissions are released by living organisms and then reabsorbed by living organisms. Since natural emission and abso*rbt*ion are equal over a year, there is no long term change in CO2 concentration. The other 2% comes from burning fossil fuels and releasing CO2which has been trapped for 400 million years. This is where the extra CO2 comes from, and it accumulates in the atmosphere over time.
“Isnt todays temperature range within the historical range of the last several interglacials according to the best data?”
Yes, though 1C warmer than anything seen in this interglacial. The significance of this is that our civilization developed during the present interglacial and is mostly optimised for pre-AGW conditions.
“Arent the planets current CO2 levels closer to the bottom of the range historically (at least over the last billion years)?”
Not quite. The last snowball earth event some 600mya occured when CO2 was well below 200ppm. The last glacial period had 200ppm. Typical Holocene levels were around 280ppm until we started adding our 4%.
Our present 400ppm+ is typical of pre-Ice Age conditions some 4C warmer than the present, and +10C temperatures came with CO2 up to 1000ppm.
” Whats the temperature of the planet supposed to be?”;
The planet probably has no optimum temperature. It has experienced averages from 5C up to 24C over the last billion years and is still here. Our civilization, however, is optimised for 14C and we are now passing 15C. We do not cope well with such changes. Read Jared Diamond’s book “Collapse”.
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Chic Bowdrie says:
August 25, 2019 at 4:11 PM
“Since natural emission and abso*rbt*ion are equal over a year, there is no long term change in CO2 concentration.”
Where is your data to back this up? Dr. Berry’s paper cited above has a detailed model that contradicts you and explains how the IPCC-based models fail. Can you explain where he is wrong?
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Stephen P Anderson says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:59 PM
Eman,
You pick your points well. In the Jurassic, Triassic and Cretaceous periods CO2 levels were well above 1000ppm. Since the Cretaceous levels have decayed below 1000ppm. I think most experts agree we need above 180 ppm to support plant life and as CO2 levels increase above 180 ppm plants flourish proportionately. In my opinion 400 ppm level is much better than a 250 ppm level which is way too close to 180ppm and 600 ppm would be even better.
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Espen says:
August 26, 2019 at 5:08 AM
Mostly good points, but “Yes, though 1C warmer than anything seen in this interglacial.? Thats simply not true. Maybe were above MWP temperature level by now, but you have to have a firm belief in rotten hockey sticks to claim that the climate during the Holocene Optimum was cooler than now.
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Stephen P Anderson says:
August 26, 2019 at 1:55 PM
Has Mann released his data yet?
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Entropic man says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:21 PM
Stephen P Anderson
Yes. The data has been in the public domain for decades. You can find it here
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature02478#Sec1
or here
ftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub/sdr/temp/nature/MANNETAL98/
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Stephen P Anderson says:
August 26, 2019 at 7:59 PM
Eman,
You’re either a liar or you’re clueless. Which is it?
Stephen P Anderson says:
August 26, 2019 at 8:27 PM
You are either intentionally lying or clueless as to what I’m asking? I want your answer. I don’t believe you’re ignorant.
Entropic man says:
August 27, 2019 at 12:17 PM
Stephen P Anderson
What a curious reaction.
Let me remind you what this is about. In 1998 Mann,Bradley and Hughes published a paper in Nature describing 1000 years of European temperatures derived from proxy data. This was the first serious attempt to use tree ring data to deduce a temperature sequence.
The data and code used was published with the paper as supplementary information, as is the custom.
This was the basis for a long debate between the authors, other scientists and several sceptics.
Over the 20 years since, the science of using proxies as temperature indicators has progressed considerably and the same basic hockey stick pattern has been demonstrated repeatedly by other workers using other data.
Now to Mann v Ball. Ball wrote that the MBH98 paper, as it has become known, was fraudulent and was sued by Mann.
Various denier websites have claimed that Ball asked for Mann’s data and was refused. This strikes me as silly, since the data has been in the public domain since 1998.
I haven’t seen the judgement yet, but I suspect that the judge made a decision similar to the Mann v Wheeler case.
Stephen P Anderson says:
August 27, 2019 at 12:58 PM
So you’re feigning ignorance really well. You seem to know so much about the case but you fail to mention the crux of the case. This implies disinformation and dishonesty. Typical leftist propagandist.
Entropic man says:
August 27, 2019 at 1:44 PM
Stephen P Anderson
The crux of the case was whether Ball’s written comments constituted defamation. The judge has presumably decided not, though we will need to see the published judgement to be sure.
If the judge in this case thinks in the same way as the judge in the Wheeler case, he will have rejected it because Ball’s comments were so absurd that nobody would take them seriously.
If you think the crux of the case was the scientific validity of MBH98, you are mistaken.
That was not in question.
Stephen P Anderson says:
August 28, 2019 at 6:20 AM
So you are nothing more than a lying propagandist?
bobn says:
August 27, 2019 at 5:30 PM
Huge presumption to say our civilisation is optimised for 14c. Why then do most people with home heating run their home temperatures above 20c? We have coped with 14c but may do far better with 18c. For one thing we’d not need to burn so much fossil fuel to stay alive.
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Nate says:
August 28, 2019 at 7:35 AM
Ave annual temp of Minneapolis ~ 7 C
Ave annual temp of New Orleans or Houston ~ 20 C
Midpoint of these 14 C.
Av annual temp of Paris: 14 C.
Other central European cities similar.
It seems first-world populations have gravitated to moderate temps (and humidities!)
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Entropic man says:
August 28, 2019 at 1:20 PM
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/10/optimal-temperature-economic-growth-13-c
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Joe Zorzin says:
August 28, 2019 at 2:57 PM
Not sure how the “reply” system works as I don’t see “reply” after many messages, but I’m trying to reply to Entropic man who mentions tree ring data as a temperature proxie. I seriously doubt you can tell much about the temperature from tree ring data. I have been a forester for 47 years and have looked at many tree rings. The size of the rings have more to do with precipitation than temperature. I’m not an expert on the subject so I asked a professor about this and he recommended a text book, “Fundamentals of Tree-Ring Research” by James H. Speer. But, I see little in there about how tree rings indicate temperature- other than how in select areas of the world, there is some correlation between temperature and the rings. Not convincing. If that’s a pillar of climate science, that science is weak. Perhaps somebody here can tell me precisely how tree rings give temperature.
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Curious George says:
August 25, 2019 at 3:54 PM
Amazon burning … I suspect that it is actually a substitute for “Bolsonaro must burn”. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is hated by Progressives, and he should be removed by any means necessary (he survived an assassination attempt during election campaign). Down with Trump of the tropics!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/19/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-presidential-candidate-trump-parallels
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captain droll says:
August 25, 2019 at 4:09 PM
I like this summary:
” either you believe the real scientists who all agree we are destroying the planet, or you are a knuckle-dragging 8th-grade educated climate denier with guns and racist tendencies.”
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Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 4:39 PM
cd,
That rather demonstrates the stupidity of pseudoscientific GHE true believers, doesn’t it?
I prefer fact to fantasy. You are free to believe any nonsense you wish. Don’t expect me to pay for your fantasy, however.
Cheers.
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captain droll says:
August 25, 2019 at 6:55 PM
You again!
What a surprise!
How are the knuckles today?
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Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 9:04 PM
Begone, stupid troll!
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Mike O says:
August 25, 2019 at 4:47 PM
Can you put some context to the “lowest years for biomass burning” chart?
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Ken says:
August 25, 2019 at 4:49 PM
Nongqause and Thunberg both advocate National Suicide.
In 1856, 16 year old Nongquase had a vision in which her ancestors promised her people, the Xhosa, a millennium of freedom from European intruders in exchange for the sacrifice of their material wealth. To fulfill Nongqause’s vision, the Xhosa leader, Sarili ordered over 150,000 cattle killed and crops and grain reserves destroyed. Tens of thousands of Xhosa perished in the ensuing famine.
Thunberg is doing the same: take away fossil fuels and our civilization ends.
https://www.encyclopedia.com/women/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/nongqause-c-1840-c-1900
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skeptikal says:
August 25, 2019 at 5:02 PM
The real problem is that there are two completely independent theories which have been packaged into one.
1/ increases in the level of Atmospheric CO2 will cause some warming.
2/ any warming of the planet will have catastrophic effects.
The first has some scientific basis, the second has none. By packaging them together, they can falsely claim that the ‘science’ supports the predictions they are making.
The media love to run scare stories and will keep running this nonsense well into the next ice age… and with just about all the media onboard, there’s no voice of reason to challenge it.
School children are being systematically brainwashed and are becoming easy recruitment targets for activist groups. Everybody wants to be Bruce Willis and save the world… and these children are being offered that opportunity.
A big part of the problem is that we are becoming a victim of our own affluence. About a hundred years ago, people worked from sun-up to sun-down, seven days a week. They simply didn’t have time to save the world. Today people have much more free-time on their hands and use that time doing things which make them feel important. Back in the 1970’s we had hippies trying to save some trees. Today we have people, largely influenced by the media, believing that they need to use their free-time to save the whole planet. It reminds me of this quote from Thomas Sowell…
“Activism is a way for useless people to feel important, even if the consequences of their activism are counterproductive for those they claim to be helping and damaging to the fabric of society as a whole.”
These people are blissfully unaware that they are just foot soldiers for the parasites who profit from this scare campaign. Wind farms and solar farms are in fact nothing more than subsidy farms… uneconomic enterprises mandated by governments, paid for by all but only benefiting the select few. And let’s not forget the carbon traders who take the term “money for nothing” to a whole new level.
The climate crisis is a multi-billion dollar global industry and anyone who gets in its way ends up getting crushed.
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Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:03 PM
“1/ increases in the level of Atmospheric CO2 will cause some warming.
2/ any warming of the planet will have catastrophic effects.
The first has some scientific basis, the second has none.”
There are numerous studies indicating the potential impacts of warming. For example, in the US alone increased heat, drought and insect outbreaks, all linked to climate change, have increased wildfires. Declining water supplies, reduced agricultural yields, health impacts in cities due to heat, and flooding and erosion in coastal areas are additional concerns.
To say there is no scientific basis for these claims is remarkably stupid.
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Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:07 PM
Denialists always see things as black and white.
They cannot bring themselves to acknowledge even a 1% chance that the scientists are correct.
This attitude s based on:
(a) a religious conservative fervour
(b) a poor understanding of probability and risk
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RichardGreene says:
August 26, 2019 at 1:07 PM
Dr. Myki, horse podiatrist, is back, with more misinformation !
If an area is hot and dry with fuel available for wildfires, most of which are started by humans, not lightning strikes, then being a few tenths of a degree warmer from climate change is not going to have any effect.
Dr. Myki non-logic:
If the average temperature in Californian was 90 degrees, there will be few wildfires, but if it reaches 90.2 degrees, from global warming, the whole state of will be burning !
Since the future climate is unknown, and unknowable, no scientist today could possibly “know” the future climate — he or she might make a lucky guess, but that’s not knowing
something.
There is 0% chance that scientists today are correct about the future climate, based on thorough knowledge of exactly what causes climate change, because such knowledge does not yet exist.
The climate in 100 years may be warmer, or cooler — no one knows the right answer.
The Holocene inter-glacial may still be in progress, or it may have ended in 100 years.
Government policies should not be based on wild guesses of the future climate.
CO2 is not a pollutant — it is the staff of life, and thousands of scientific experiments prove more CO2 in the air it is valuable airborne plant food … that also reduces plant water requirements, even as they are growing larger than they did with lower levels of CO2.
If politicians cared about REAL pollution, the target should be fossil fuels burned WITHOUT modern pollution controls, which cause a lot of air pollution in Asian cities.
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R.A. says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:44 PM
Regarding your example: “…in the US alone increased heat, drought and insect outbreaks, all linked to climate change, have increased wildfires.”
1. The U.S. is not getting hotter. An honest assessment of the temperature record since 1900 actually shows a cooling trend. See: https://realclimatescience.com/corruption-of-the-us-temperature-record/
2. There has not been a long-term increase in wildfires. Compared to the first half of the 20th century–when CO2 in the atmosphere was lower–there has been a striking decline in acreage burned in wildfires. See: https://realclimatescience.com/extreme-wildfire-fraud-in-the-national-climate-assessment/
Even if there had been an increase in measured U.S. temperatures and wildfires, claims linking them to “climate change” would be purely speculative. There is no evidence to support such an assertion.
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Ken says:
August 25, 2019 at 8:07 PM
Dr Myki … As R.A. shows, the data doesn’t support your assertions.
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Norman says:
August 25, 2019 at 8:16 PM
Dr. Myki
I would have to really disagree with your unsupported statement.
YOU: “There are numerous studies indicating the potential impacts of warming. For example, in the US alone increased heat, drought and insect outbreaks, all linked to climate change, have increased wildfires. Declining water supplies, reduced agricultural yields, health impacts in cities due to heat, and flooding and erosion in coastal areas are additional concerns.”
Here is an EPA study on droughts and wet times.
Where is your evidence of increased drought in the US? I think you just are making up unsupported statements with this illusion of authority.
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-drought
Insects?
Here is one that shows years of different insect infestations of forest areas. Up and down and some years bad others not bad. You make another made up statement based upon zero scientific evidence.
https://www.fs.fed.us/sites/default/files/fs_media/fs_document/15627-usda-forest-service-insects-508.pdf
Reduced agricultural yields? Say what? Where does this come from?
http://agron-www.agron.iastate.edu/courses/Agron541/classes/541/lesson01a/1a.1.html
So far I do not see any evidence at all to support your claims. I think you should get some data and show us your sources. Maybe you go to alarmists blogs where they produce all the data you want.
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Norman says:
August 25, 2019 at 8:35 PM
Dr. Myki
I found this one on long term trends in flooding. Read the conclusion. Not quite so certain at all. Lots of things come into play. If flooding is increasing in some area it may have nothing to do with climate change but more to do with some long term established climate system like the NAO.
https://iahs.info/uploads/dms/13512.04-001-018-305-1-Svensson-et-al.pdf
Here:
Some places increased in flooding others decreased. What is the trend for the US?
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-river-flooding
Heat waves in the US? Are you serious?
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-high-and-low-temperatures
Not sure what scientific papers you are using to form such conclusions but at least you should be able to see that other sources in no way remotely form your claims.
I think maybe you should read again Dr. Spencer’s post on media manipulation. It seems as if you have really fallen for it and an not willing to research the reality at all. Posting a nonsense mantra and acting like it is some established fact.
I would say prove your statements.
Reply
xenomoly says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:25 PM
Wow – all of your responses are really ignorant and partisan. As an atheist and a skeptic about the politicization of this mostly academic issue – I am appalled by the behavior of people that pretend to defend science. You are not on the side of science here. You are functioning as a tribal clod.
Models will tell you ANYTHING you program them to tell you. They are not some magic crystal ball. You can see the various CMIP models all varying widely in what they predict and gather some that will tell you about drought in point A and exclude those that don’t – and lo and behold you have projections of drought. Cherry picking is rife in climate science. Its the least falsifiable “science” that exists. Its damn near Lysenkoism.
But of course true believers like you are always around to play social enforcement games for your tribe. You should be embarrassed about such disturbing behavior. But of course — you probably don’t have the honesty or self awareness to pull back and be a human again.
Stop with the tribal bullshit.
Reply
Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:41 PM
xenomoly,
Why so aggressive? I don’t think I mentioned models anywhere in my post.
If you want to have an argument, start here, the source for my comment:
https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/
Reply
xenomoly says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:04 PM
Quit playing games. You are a dishonest person. Have a good night.
I get that you think that material put out for public advocacy is a primary source. I have been watching this whole industry develop over the past 40 years around this garbage and the exaggeration and lies make it clear people like NASA are willing to pass of low likelihood worst case scenarios as likely events.
But keep your faith. I am sure the carbon fairies will bless you.
Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:10 PM
Running away?
Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:01 AM
DM,
Ooooooh! Such a challenge.
He can’t fail to be provoked by that, surely?
Cheers.
Norman says:
August 26, 2019 at 5:10 AM
Dr. Myki
Did you actually read the points? They are mostly projected effects not actual effects. The actual effects show none of what you claim. It is impossible to determine if the projected effects will take place since they have not happened yet.
Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:14 PM
And, if you refuse to believe the scientists:
“Its no secret that climate change comes at a cost so much so that even the insurance industry has flagged it as a priority. According to a new industry survey, actuaries (the people who calculate insurance risks and premiums based on available data) ranked climate change as the top risk for 2019, beating out concerns over cyber damages, financial instability, and terrorism.”
https://grist.org/article/insurance-experts-rank-climate-change-as-top-risk-for-2019/
Don’t tell me that the bean counters are swayed by the media. They are hard heads.
Reply
Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:44 PM
DM,
Which scientists? Name one who is not a fraud, fool, faker, or phony?
If you manage to provide a name, refer to the motto of the Royal Society – roughly translated as “take no ones word for it.
Bean counters can predict the future no better than I can. Insurance companies can make staggering losses, only exceeded by hedge funds, because they believed they could foretell the future.
Keep relying on experts if you wish. Feynman said that science was belief in the ignorance of experts, and I agree.
Cheers.
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Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 8:05 PM
Link me to a published denialist paper that has been published in a reputable journal lately.
No-can-do? Then who is a fraud, fool, faker, or phony?
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Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 9:02 PM
DM,
You can’t actually name even one scientist who can actually describe the GHE, can you?
As one actual Nobel Laureate physicist said “Another thing I must point out is that you cannot prove a vague theory wrong.” Unfortunately, pseudoscientific GHE true believers can’t provide a vague theory or even a vague hypothesis, because not one of them can even describe the mythical GHE in any scientific way.
You ask who is a fraud, fool, faker or phony? You refuse to provide the name of any scientist who can describe the GHE in any useful way. The reason is simple – no scientist wants to expose themselves to well founded accusations of being a fraud, fool, faker or phony.
Come on, give me name – how hard can it be?
Cheers.
Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:41 PM
Still waiting.
Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:22 PM
DM,
You cant even name one scientist who has actually described the mythical GHE, can you?
What a pity!
Cheers.
Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:43 PM
I am still waiting.
Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 12:39 AM
Could you try holding your breath while you wait for an answer to a pointless demand?
Reduce CO2.
Cheers.
RichardGreene says:
August 26, 2019 at 1:15 PM
Dr. Myki, horse podiatrist
Dr. Appeal to Authority Myki.
If goobermint bureaucrats with science degrees say something, then it has to be right.
Meanwhile, their computer game climate models predict triple the warming that actually happens.
That’s YOUR team, Myki — Their 100% wrong predictions are based on 1970’s-era theories about CO2 that are repeatedly falsified — the obviously wrong theories about a CO2 doubling causing +3 degrees C. of global warming just live on like climate zombies !
bobn says:
August 27, 2019 at 5:43 PM
Here are a few, well 85, papers showing CO2 has a miniscule effect on climate. just for starters but the link leads to hundreds more papers showing AGW is a hoax.
https://notrickszone.com/2018/12/10/the-list-grows-now-85-scientific-papers-assert-co2-has-a-minuscule-effect-on-the-climate/
Aaron S says:
August 25, 2019 at 5:46 PM
I am curious the role that science literature itself fuels this media fire by accepting climate model outputs as primary data and then building on the model outputs with another layer of modeling or interpretation? This logical structure creates all sorts of potential fallacies (Irrelevant Conclusion, Slippery slope) for the media to build on. In science it typically deals with this with careful wording, but media often does no such thing.
I grabbed one recent example paper from a quick Google search because it reviewed recent examples of this “if, then” structure in its introduction. It is not an extreme example just a normal climate model based paper that has become very common.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-48310-1
Then like the telephone game where this core scientific structure of: “If, Then” is worded in a valid way but when it is passed on to media it changes. The problem appears to be the additional error is added in the translation to popular media whereby it ends up with false logical statements. If u destroy the structure of “If earth warms 3 degC (uncertainty explained), then salamanders range shift North and risk extinction” and just jump to the headline “climate change will cause salamanders to shift north” the authors are not on valid logical footing.
The only solution to this potential problem I can see is for media to have accountability where false logic is fined. I imagine AI would have no issue determining these incidents. Even the statement “climate crisis” assumes models are not over estimating global warming, which is why the models have uncertainty in the first place. The media loses the structure required to communicate the message in a valid way. I am not sure why it is legal? For me it is the equivalent of publishing a photoshop image with negative impact as real.
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Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:18 PM
Your proposed “solution” would also have to apply to denialist propaganda.
I am sure the warmist message would win hands down.
Fakenews (i.e. Foxnews) would be put out of business.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:37 PM
DM,
What is “denialist propaganda”?
This would be where pseudoscientific GHE true believers deny that climate is the average of weather, and has been changing since an atmosphere existed, would it?
These same deniers refuse to accept that slow cooling is not heating, that the surface cools every night, and the no-one at all has ever managed to make a thermometer hotter by the cunning use of CO2, I suppose?
The various IPCC reports, and much of NASA’s climate nonsense seem to be “denialist propaganda”.
Go forth – proclaim your “message”. What sort of prize do you imagine you will win? You won’t even get a free dinner from the Warmist community. Dream on.
Cheers.
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Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:44 PM
“What is denialist propaganda?”
Have a look in the mirror.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:50 PM
Begone, troll!
Lewis guignard says:
August 26, 2019 at 4:09 AM
“What is denialist propaganda?�
Have a look in the mirror.
I have found that most leftists use projection to attack others.
You seem a typical example.
xenomoly says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:27 PM
Do you have the ability to be an honest participant in any interaction or do you just do this partisan masturbatory nonsense everywhere?
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Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:44 PM
I take it you don’t believe in the proposal that
“media to have accountability where false logic is f(ound)”
or that it should only apply to one side?
If so say so, and be prepared to debate the issue.
Reply
Lewis guignard says:
August 26, 2019 at 4:11 AM
Aaron didn’t make that statement to start with. You assumed it, then went from there with your religious bs.
Tom Harris says:
August 25, 2019 at 5:49 PM
I note that there is a cool spot in the UAH data for July, not a hot spot (that NOAA had), over central Africa. How do they justify that, especially since they apparently have no surface temperature data for that place?
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xenomoly says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:29 PM
They parameterize models then use the models to infill the missing data. Climate “science” is damn near Lysenkoism.
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Tom Harris says:
August 25, 2019 at 5:50 PM
another question, please:
Tony Heller points out that NOAA did not actually have any data for some regions, like central Africa, where they said it was very hot this past July (he explains this at https://youtu.be/uMldKLR0Vwc?t=317). So, would the way they generated data for these areas be what Roy explains (at http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/08/july-2019-was-not-the-warmest-on-record/) as follows:
one can get a better estimate of global average surface temperature if you have satellite measurements of upper air temperatures on a global basis and in regions where no surface data exist. Knowing whether there is a warm or cold airmass there from satellite data is better than knowing nothing at all.
Part of this process is making forecasts to get data where no data exists. Because weather systems continuously move around the world, the equations of motion, thermodynamics, and moisture can be used to estimate temperatures where no data exists by doing a physics extrapolation using data observed on one day in one area, then watching how those atmospheric characteristics are carried into an area with no data on the next day.
This kind of physics-based extrapolation (which is what weather forecasting is) is much more realistic than (for example) using land surface temperatures in July around the Arctic Ocean to simply guess temperatures out over the cold ocean water and ice where summer temperatures seldom rise much above freezing. This is actually one of the questionable techniques used (by NASA GISS) to get temperature estimates where no data exists.
What do you think of this approach to generate temperature estimates where no data exists, Roy?
Hope to hear from you soon!
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barry says:
August 26, 2019 at 6:05 PM
Heller is showing you two anomaly maps that have different baselines and comparing them as if they have the same baselines. He is a BS artist who has spent years honing his BS. Anthony Watts, to his credit, no longer permits Heller from posting articles at WUWT (happened some years ago).
Why does no skeptic spend as much thought questioning Heller’s work as they do the IPCC? His crap is easier to debunk, though it still takes more effort than mindlessly swallowing it.
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Peter says:
August 25, 2019 at 6:30 PM
Plain commonsense often trumps pseudo scientific clap trap.
A timely article. Thank you.
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Midas says:
August 25, 2019 at 9:46 PM
You meant:
“Plain common sense beats Trump’s pseudo-scientific claptrap.”
Reply
Xenomoly says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:31 PM
Do you have the ability to function as a human or do you just spit out a Trump Derangement Quote whenever you see the word “trump”?
Reply
Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:47 PM
X,
your spite seems to identify you as another denialist thug. You’ve been here before no doubt.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:20 PM
Begone, denialist troll!
Lewis guignard says:
August 26, 2019 at 4:13 AM
TRUMP 2020
KEEP AMERICA GREAT
Reply
Lost In Space says:
August 25, 2019 at 6:38 PM
Welcome back. I hope you’re feeling better. I was starting to think we had lost you.
Is there a way we can share your articles on social media? I don’t see any sharing links to FB, IG, or the like. Or do you prefer that we don’t do that? Anyway, thanks for the concise commentary.
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Chic Bowdrie says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:14 PM
I hope Dr. S doesn’t mind, I already posted this one on my FB timeline. Where it says “what’s on your mind,” type an intro phrase, and/or just paste the url. This post will appear with some photos on the page. Delete the ones that go with the ads. Click post.
You can erase the url before you post, if you want.
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Lost In Space says:
August 25, 2019 at 6:38 PM
Welcome back. I hope you’re feeling better. I was starting to think we had lost you.
Is there a way we can share your articles on social media? I don’t see any sharing links to FB, IG, or the like. Or do you prefer that we don’t do that? Anyway, thanks for the concise commentary.
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Brian Barnett says:
August 25, 2019 at 6:59 PM
Dr Spencer,I hope you are well and truly on the mend. I certainly missed your comments while you were dealing with you health issues.
Thank you for such an informative summation of what is happening with regard to the world’s climate.
I cringe every time I hear a news report or comments on the news by someone who has been “affected” by climate change. With a temperature increase of around less than .5 of a degree I fail to see how there can be any change happening now. Maybe in another 100 years or so if it keeps warming, but we are really not sure that is going to happen anyway.
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Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:21 PM
“With a temperature increase of around less than .5 of a degree I fail to see how there can be any change happening now.”
This is frog (in a beaker) talk.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:29 PM
This is pseudoscientific GHE true believer diversionary nonsense.
Frogs? Beakers?
What next? Are you going to pretend that Michael Mann is a Nobel Laureate, and appeal to his authority? Why not pretend that Gavin Schmidt is a world renowned climate scientist?
Maybe you should stick to being incomprehensible. It suits you.
Cheers.
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Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:34 PM
Don’t tell me you are so stupid you haven’t heard of the frog in a boiling beaker of water analogy?
You have heard of it? Then you are obviously too stupid to understand it.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:49 PM
Another typical pseudoscientific GHE true believer analogy, pointless and irrelevant!
Try describing the GHE. Without knowing what you are talking about, your supposed analogies are completely worthless. You can’t describe the GHE? How hard can it be?
Too hard for you, or any of the other GHE cultists, obviously.
Oh, well.
Cheers.
professor P says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:35 PM
Warning. MF repetition alert!
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Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:49 PM
Begone, witless troll!
studentb says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:31 PM
“And still I am widely considered a climate denier.
Why? Because I am not willing to exaggerate and make claims that cannot be supported by data.”
Roy, I think your problem (and that of Roger Pielke,) is that the climate debate is very hot (no pun) and there is little room for intermediate opinions. If you wish to take an intermediate point of view, you need to demonstrate a willingness to slap down poor arguments on both sides of the issue. If you are seen to only criticise warmist messages, don’t be surprised if they automatically label you as a denier.
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Midas says:
August 25, 2019 at 9:44 PM
Agreed. There appear to be no supporters of the alternative “science” of Paul Beckwith and co on this blog. The greatest deviations from Spencer’s views on climate in this blog occur on the denier side. Yet he never attacks that side. You have to wonder then about a motivating agenda.
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Chic Bowdrie says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:21 PM
That’s obviously false. Dr. S has complained and dedicated posts to make it known he disagrees with no greenhouse effect views like mine.
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Midas says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:30 PM
I said he never ATTACKS that side. Have you ever felt personally attacked as a result of these posts? I am saying that, on one side he challenges the science apparently devoid of emotion, while on the other he also vehemently attacks the messenger.
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Lewis guignard says:
August 26, 2019 at 4:16 AM
I’ve never seen him attack a messenger.
Chic Bowdrie says:
August 26, 2019 at 1:22 PM
No, I haven’t felt attacked. Nor would I characterize his challenges to anyone as an attack, warranted or not. Dr. Spencer has too much integrity for that.
barry says:
August 26, 2019 at 6:18 PM
Would this be seen as attack?
“But some of the alternative explanations I’m seeing border on the ludicrous.
So, here’s my Top 10 list of stupid skeptic arguments. I’m sure there are more, and maybe I missed a couple important ones. Oh well…”
[Roy covers the basic nonsense, rebutting 10 stupid skeptic arguments…]
“So why am I trying to stir up a hornets nest (again)? Because when skeptics embrace “science” that is worse that the IPCC’s science, we hurt our credibility.”
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/04/skeptical-arguments-that-dont-hold-water/
If this is not strong enough, I’m not sure that the statement “he doesn’t ‘attack’ ” is more meaningful than a bit of rhetoric.
Re the OP here, of course the media exaggerates. That’s life 101, although there are plenty of ignorant people who didn’t pass that course. But Roy also bends the facts with rhetoric in his article. No – the IPCC does not simply “assume” that most of the warming since 1950 is anthropogenic. That’s patently false, whether or not you agree with the conclusion.
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Chic Bowdrie says:
August 27, 2019 at 10:18 AM
“the IPCC does not simply assume that most of the warming since 1950 is anthropogenic.”
How is that patently false? To a first approximation, models have a sensitivity to CO2 that makes warming largely anthropogenic. If you throw in the IPCC assumption that all increase in CO2 is anthropogenic, case closed.
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barry says:
August 27, 2019 at 3:56 PM
1) Sensitivity is not derived from CO2 forcing. It is the response (feedback) to that forcing. In large-scale models climate sensitivity is an emergent property, not a set parameter. It can be a set parameter in energy balance models. Climate sensitivity is estimated from paleoclimate investigation as well as from the modern instrumental record.
2) It is not remotely an assumption that the recent rise in CO2 is mostly (>95%) anthropogenic. Where on Earth did you get this idea?
https://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2009/10/31/papers-on-anthropogenic-carbon-dioxide-observations/
https://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2010/06/03/papers-on-anthropogenic-co2-emissions/
https://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2009/12/14/papers-on-co2-emissions-from-volcanoes/
https://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2010/01/14/papers-on-the-ocean-carbon-sink/
https://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2010/02/02/papers-on-co2-records-from-ice-cores/
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Chic Bowdrie says:
August 27, 2019 at 6:31 PM
1) Are you denying that CO2 is largely responsible for how much warming models predict? Never mind how much they overshoot.
2) From IPCC AR5 WGI: “The main contributors to increasing
atmospheric CO2 abundance are fossil fuel combustion and land use change (Section 6.3). Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that during the past few decades, most of the increasing atmospheric burden of CO2 is from fossil fuel combustion (Tans, 2009).”
You have a lot of papers represented in the links you provide. Any idea which ones contradict my opinion, Dr. Spencer’s, and almost anyone paying attention, that the IPCC assumes (maybe you prefer alleges?) most of the recent warming is anthropogenic?
barry says:
August 28, 2019 at 5:52 PM
1) Sensitivity is not derived from CO2 forcing. This is what you said, and you are wrong. Sensitivity is the system response to forcing, not the forcing itself. When you address what you wrote and my reply to it I’ll move on to where you shifted the goal post.
2) In reply to my rebutting you saying that the IUPCC “assumes” the CO2 rise is anthropogenic, you quote the IPCC:
“Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that during the past few decades, most of the increasing atmospheric burden of CO2 is from fossil fuel combustion (Tans, 2009)”
What is it about “multiple lines of evidence” that makes you think the conclusion is an assumption?
All the papers I listed are the multiple lines of evidence that the CO2 rise in anthropogenic. It’s not just the amount of papers, it’s that independent lines of evidence (accounting of the global carbon cycle, sources and sinks / isotopic ratios in CO2 over time etc) converge on the same conclusion. This is the complete opposite of “assuming.”
barry says:
August 27, 2019 at 4:05 PM
Work like the above, which are hardly “assumptions” build toward attribution studies, which is the core of the IPCC reckoning on anthropogenic climate change. These are hardly “assumptive” either.
Roy would have us imagine that the IPCC conclusion (expressed as “extremely likely” – AR5 SPM) is arrived at thrloigh either no scientific process or an arbitrary one. It’s a ridiculous pro[position in light of the huge amount of research behind it. One can take issue with the conclusion, but one cannot rationally argue that it is an “assumption.”
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Chic Bowdrie says:
August 27, 2019 at 6:32 PM
Assumption: “a thing that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof.” You make the call.
barry says:
August 28, 2019 at 7:23 AM
These conclusions are assessed with varying degrees of probability based on evidence. “Proof” is for alcohol and maths. There is no “proof” the cigarettes cause heart disease and lung cancer. If you don’t know why the surgeon general is right to recommend smoking is a serious health risk, then you do not understand science.
Chic Bowdrie says:
August 28, 2019 at 10:06 AM
The inability to prove cigarettes cause lung cancer wouldn’t encourage me to keep smoking based on the data and its consequences. But I wouldn’t ban driving and flying based on that much less certain data and its consequences.
barry says:
August 28, 2019 at 5:53 PM
Did you just suggest that anyone serious is trying to ban driving and flying, or are we having a joke of a conversation?
Chic Bowdrie says:
August 28, 2019 at 8:54 PM
The joke is on me. I got sucked into a stupid conversation over your quibbling about the meaning of assumes.
barry says:
August 29, 2019 at 7:32 AM
There is no quibble over the meaning.
assumption: 1. something that you accept as true without question or proof
The fact is that Roy’s usage is complete BS. A lot of study goes into these provisional conclusions. As evidenced by the lists of papers I supplied, which is a tiny fraction of all the research behind them.
Gordon Robertson says:
August 27, 2019 at 1:59 AM
studentb…”If you are seen to only criticise warmist messages, dont be surprised if they automatically label you as a denier”.
You are not talking about a scientist (Royu) merely offering an opinion, you are talking about a guy who has the data to prove what he says.
The rest are wannabees…climate modelers, theoreticians, political bumboys, and downright pseudo-scientists.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:55 PM
From John Tyndall’s work, where he writes about some initial enquiries he made –
“With a delicate apparatus of the same kind, Dr. Franz, of Berlin, found that the air contained in a tube 3 feet long absorbed 3.54 per cent. of the heat sent through it form an Argand lamp; that is to say, calling the number of rays which passed through the exhausted tube 100, the number which passed when the tube was filled with air was only 96.46.”
The point here is that the heat passing though the atmosphere from the Sun is reduced – not enhanced or amplified. No GHE, no CO2 heating. Rather the complete opposite – Tyndall found that some gases reduce the amount of radiation to the point where even inserting a brass plate in the path resulted in no additional fall in the number of rays passed.
In other words, reducing the amount of infrared transmitted does not make a thermometer hotter. No experiment has ever shown this to be the case. Every experiment shows the opposite.
Pseudoscientific GHE true believers reject theory and experiment, preferring to retreat into their fantasy world where CO2 has magical heating properties, so mysterious that no ordinary scientist is capable of understanding them, and certainly too complicated for members of the public to even be exposed to!
Just look at NASA –
“The greenhouse effect is the way in which heat is trapped close to the surface of the Earth by “greenhouse gases.” These heat-trapping gases can be thought of as a blanket wrapped around the Earth, which keeps it toastier than it would be without them.”
Toastier blankets? Maybe NASA feel the general public is too dumb to understand “climate science”. Newtons Law of Universal Gravitation, or Newton’s Laws of Motion must be really simple – they are expressed in scientific terms for the public to read- no need for toasty blankets, even.
Actually, the fumbling bumblers at NASA and the IPCC don’t actually know what they are talking about. Heres’s a lovely piece of nonsense from NASA – “Certain gases in the atmosphere block heat from escaping.” Here’s some news for NASA – the surface cools at night. Slow cooling is not heating. In the absence of an external heat source, the Earth would eventually reach equilibrium with its surrounding – about 4 K. CO2 changes this not one jot. Gavin Schmidt is a deluded mathematician – not a scientist. Even his knowledge of mathematics is suspect – claiming a 38% probability meant far more likely than not!
Still no GHE – for all the money spent, not one person has managed to describe the GHE. Not one testable hypothesis has been proposed. Some “science”!
Cheers.
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professor P says:
August 25, 2019 at 8:00 PM
Repetitious nonsense alert!
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Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 8:52 PM
Begone troll!
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Lewis guignard says:
August 26, 2019 at 4:26 AM
Mike,
If Gavin Schmidt claims a 38% probability for something, what, please tell us, does he claim his probability numbers are based on?
My guess is that is his basing them on a model and one can extrapolate his bs from there.
Keep after the proselytizers.
Lewis
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barry says:
August 26, 2019 at 6:46 PM
What does it mean that readers have to guess what you’re talking about? Does it mean you are as dodgy as Gavin Schmidt?
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Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 9:03 PM
b,
There is this wonderful facility called Google.
Rather than fully explain the Gavin Schmidt 38% reference, if you insert the search term “Gavin Schmidt 38%” into Google, this should give you the information you require.
Gavin does not adequately explain the derivation of this particular piece of stupidity, claiming that a 62% probability against something occurring meant that the occurrence was “almost certain”.
Gavin seems to have put his foot in his mouth on this occasion, and then shot himself in the foot, to mix metaphors. If you call such behaviour dodgy, that is your opinion. Mine is that it is more stupid and ignorant – stupid for saying it, ignorant for thinking nobody would point out his stupidity and ignorance.
Cheers.
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barry says:
August 27, 2019 at 7:13 AM
Oh I know the reference. It was just ironic that the critic committed the sin he was complaining about.
The GISS probability analysis is covered in Hansen et al (2010). The one for NOAA is covered in Arguez et al (2013).
Now, if I was a ‘skeptic’, I wouldn’t bother providing links for these papers. Because that’s how you guys operate.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010RG000345
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013GL057999
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barry says:
August 27, 2019 at 4:14 PM
Here’s one for you to figure out, Mike.
I have 5 values, all with an uncertainty parameter overlapping each other.
Each of the 5 values has a probability of being the actual highest value. Ranked in order of highest value (A) to lowest (E), here are the probabilities:
A – 45%
B – 22%
C – 18%
D – 9%
E – 6%
Which is the likeliest highest value?
What does it mean that the highest value (A) has more than twice the chance of being the highest value than the value with the next highest chance (B)?
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Gordon Robertson says:
August 27, 2019 at 2:11 AM
Lewis…”If Gavin Schmidt claims a 38% probability for something, what, please tell us, does he claim his probability numbers are based on?”
Based on the probability that he’s not lying. Obviously he likely was because 2014 was nowhere near the warmest year.
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barry says:
August 27, 2019 at 7:16 AM
Well you don’t know what you’re talking about. 2014 was the then highest ranked year for NOAA and GISS (and JMA). But because the uncertainty errors overlap with previous years, this made 2014 only the likeliest warmest year.
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Nate says:
August 27, 2019 at 8:00 AM
Gordon,
“Based on the probability that hes not lying. Obviously he likely was because 2014 was nowhere near the warmest year.”
You realize Gor, that in 2014, Gavin didnt have the forsight to know that 2016-18 would be higher!
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Svante says:
August 27, 2019 at 2:53 PM
Gordon Robertson says:
“2014 was nowhere near the warmest year.”
That’s right Gordon, it isn’t any more, but it might have been warmer than 2010, see:
https://tinyurl.com/y2awyhbs
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barry says:
August 27, 2019 at 4:55 PM
Svante – that is BEST data, which has different results to NOAA and GISS now, though they concurred in 2015.
http://static.berkeleyearth.org/memos/Global-Warming-2014-Berkeley-Earth-Newsletter.pdf
Presumably, additional data acquired in the last few years for 2010 and 2014 has them swap ranking places. Both are ranked cooler than the years from 2015 onwards.
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Gordon Robertson says:
August 27, 2019 at 2:09 AM
Mike…from Tyndall…”With a delicate apparatus of the same kind, Dr. Franz, of Berlin, found that the air contained in a tube 3 feet long absorbed 3.54 per cent. of the heat sent through it form an Argand lamp; that is to say, calling the number of rays which passed through the exhausted tube 100, the number which passed when the tube was filled with air was only 96.46.”
Interesting stuff. However, the science back then mistook electromagnetic radiation for heat. It was EM from the Argand lamp that was absorbed, not heat.
Sadly, there are major scientific institutions like NASA GISS who still cannot tell the difference between EM and heat. They openly talk about CO2 trapping heat, which is nonsense.
Furthermore, solar energy is far more intense with a far broader EM bandwidth than an Argand lamp.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argand_lamp
“The Argand lamp is a type of oil lamp invented in 1780 by Aim Argand. Its output is 6 to 10 candelas…”
Not to cast a slur on Tyndall’s fine name, but 6 to 10 candelas….oooooohhh!!!
Even furthermore, Gavin Schmidt, now head of NASA GISS, has claimed CO2 can warm the atmosphere between 9% and 25%. Those numbers were obviously drawn from a hat.
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barry says:
August 29, 2019 at 7:25 AM
Why must Gordon spew the most arrant nonsense so continuously?
“Even furthermore, Gavin Schmidt, now head of NASA GISS, has claimed CO2 can warm the atmosphere between 9% and 25%. Those numbers were obviously drawn from a hat.”
The figures are the CO2 contribution to the overall ‘greenhouse’ effect. The numbers are not pulled out of a hat, but derived from line by line calculation of radiative transfer of various constituent gases (water vapour gets higher percentages, of course) and a simple energy balance model (eg, not a GCM, just a series of equations to account for a radiative/convective atmosphere).
This work predates Schmidt’s contribution, and very similar numbers were derived from pure physical calculations by Ramanathan and Coakley 1978.
Gordon mentions Gavin Schmidt because he’s a popular name to use as a hex in the climate wars. Work done by others corroborating these figures are not mentioned by Gordon and other propagandists, because they are completely ignorant of the existence of other researchers and their estimates on these values.
And that’s why useful idiots like Gordon use catchy phrases like “obviously drawn from a hat.” That’s the kind of flair that the ignorant regularly employ, not knowing what garbage they pile on to the discussion.
They care nothing for the truth.
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Eben says:
August 25, 2019 at 7:59 PM
It is time you take your stand and declare yourself a genuine denier, it will secure your credibility in the long run.
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professor P says:
August 25, 2019 at 8:02 PM
It will also secure you a bed here at the asylum.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 8:52 PM
Begone psychobabbling troll!
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xenomoly says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:36 PM
Did you read anything he said? What is wrong with you folks? Its like you folks are cult members that REQUIRE everyone to accept your prophesy about impending doom – yet you do not seem to understand the paucity of evidence to support your claim. Your entire ideology relies on you having faith in pronouncements from virtual high priests.
As an atheist – I can see religious thinking in a lot of people and you folks are religious thinkers.
You might as well just demand Spencer declare himself a heretic in league with satan.
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Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:49 PM
Calm down. You are sounding ridiculous.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:18 PM
Begone, demanding troll!
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Lewis guignard says:
August 26, 2019 at 4:27 AM
Dr. M,
I believe he is accurate in his accusations.
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Nate says:
August 26, 2019 at 9:09 PM
xen,
There is plenty of religious thinking from your tribe on this blog. You’ve got deniers of climate change, who are also deniers of Evolution, and the Big Bang apparently for religious reasons.
Even from Dr Spencer, who is a member of the Cornwall Alliance, who argue (more or less) that the creator would not allow humans to mess up the Earth.
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JDHuffman says:
August 27, 2019 at 6:03 PM
Nate,
There is plenty of religious thinking from your tribe on this blog. You’ve got believers in AGW/GHE, who are also believers in Evolution, and the Big Bang apparently for religious reasons.
And get this, some of them also believe racehorses rotate on their axes!
Weird false religion, huh?
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Nate says:
September 4, 2019 at 7:57 PM
Case in point.
JD is quite mixed up about what is science, what is religion, what is pseudoscience, what is physics, and what is made-up physics.
He is just generally confused.
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Greg says:
August 25, 2019 at 8:06 PM
You keep talking about people talking outside their field of expertise and then in the next sentence you move your conversation to Economics (not your field). I am an economist and really don’t like hearing scientists talking about a field they have little knowledge in. Maybe just like you don’t like the media talking climate..
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Chris Hanley says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:40 PM
“We don’t use wind and solar energy because it is economically competitive …”.
Are you disputing that statement?
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captain droll says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:56 PM
???
Why do so many people install solar on their roof tops?
and only pay a few dollars each billing cycle?
Don’t tell me they have not worked out the economic benefits.
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Chris Hanley says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:11 PM
Where in the developed world is solar PV panel installation and operation economically competitive without government mandate and subsidies?
Solar PV is the utterly uncompetitive and the road to ruin if adopted other than in ’boutique’ applications:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2015/02/11/eroi-a-tool-to-predict-the-best-energy-mix/#307cb26ba027
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/green-energy-revolution-near-impossible
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Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:40 PM
“says the cost of generating power from onshore wind has fallen by around 23% since 2010 while the cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity has fallen by 73% in that time. With further price falls expected for these and other green energy options, IRENA says all renewable energy technologies should be competitive on price with fossil fuels by 2020.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2018/01/13/renewable-energy-cost-effective-fossil-fuels-2020/#228be0ef4ff2
i.e. next year will see the changeover point reached. Any subsidies must therefore have been successful at stimulating such a transformation.
I wouldn’t want to build a coal fired power plant at the moment – even with a government subsidy.
Chris Hanley says:
August 26, 2019 at 12:04 AM
That article based on a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency contains a lot of wishful thinking but doesn’t address the fundamental problem with solar and wind viz. they need fossil fueled, nuclear or hydro backup.
The article doesn’t mention storage and that is their Achilles heel.
The energy return on energy invested ratio, as outlined in the article above, is the critical factor.
Dr Myki says:
August 26, 2019 at 5:52 AM
Chris, thanks for those links.
To be honest, this topic is somewhat complex and I am the first to admit I am not on top of it.
However, I am aware that some of the issues involve:
cost of developing and maintaining coal mines (e.g. transport costs etc.)
health costs associated with coal miners
ditto with coal fired power plants
reluctance of banks to provide loans
reluctance of insurers
costs of decommissioning
etc.
Then the intangibles:
costs associated with changes in the climate due to increased greenhouse gases (unknown)
I am willing to be persuaded that renewables are not the answer. But, at the moment, coal appears to be on the way out.
Nate says:
August 27, 2019 at 6:39 AM
Chris,
Response to Forbes article
http://rameznaam.com/2015/06/04/whats-the-eroi-of-solar/
Best to look at more than one source for this information.
Dr Myki says:
August 27, 2019 at 2:57 PM
Nate, thanks for that link
Greg says:
August 26, 2019 at 12:27 AM
Long answer and not the point. The point was the article keeps talking about people sticking to their field yet this author has no problems moving from science to economics all the time. He should stick to the science as I think his economics is quite bad.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 1:24 AM
G,
Seriously, economics is not science, is it?
Economic fads and fancies come and go. What is the use of economists? They produce nothing, and bring out new forecasts (based on what has already happened) weekly or even daily.
When was the last time anybody “needed” something which emanated from an economist?
I wouldn’t be surprised if 97% of economists agree they are important to the economy.
To each his own, I suppose.
Cheers.
Reply
Lewis guignard says:
August 26, 2019 at 4:29 AM
Economics would best be described as the sociology of money. Go from there.
Greg says:
August 26, 2019 at 5:40 PM
Another example of people that think they are experts in things they no nothing about. Thanks for that Mike. You don’t like your science to come from the media but you are happy to believe your understating of economics from the media is correct. This was exactly my point, people with strong opinions on things outside their knowledge.
Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 7:51 PM
G,
Your mindreading skills are as scientific as economic theory, which is to say, of no practical use whatsoever.
I appreciate that you appeal to your own authority, but astrological predictions are as useful as forecasts from economists.
Economists cannot even agree on reasons for past occurrences of financial upheavals. Fortune sellers have no demonstrated skill compared with a reasonably bright 12 year old. Because economic “science” possesses no testable hypotheses, its practitioners can make any mad claims they fancy, without any doubt that nobody can prove them wrong!
Rather like pseudoscientific GHE true believers.
As Feynman said “Science is belief in the ignorance of experts.”
Throw me some facts. Opinions are valueless, unless supported by fact.
Cheers.
xenomoly says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:41 PM
THAT is what you took from that?
TURN OFF THE FAITH AND THINK WITH YOUR MIND FOR A BIT.
Goodness. The climate doom true believers are cult members. Rational thought is tossed aside and you infer evil intent in every heretic that does not accept your ideology.
You claim to be an economist – but at the same time you seem to think economics is an entirely predictable field? You know its not. You know at best you can state that there is a probability distribution for any outcome. Spencer is talking about exactly that – and decrying the media’s choice to boil down probability distributions to their most dire and least likely outcome.
It’s like seeing a small decrease in consumer confidence and pumping out headlines that a worldwide multi-year depression will happen within the quarter.
That is the level of bullshit being peddled by the alarmist community. You appear to support that. Why?
Reply
Nate says:
August 26, 2019 at 9:19 PM
‘ I am an economist and really dont like hearing scientists talking about a field they have little knowledge in. ‘
Maybe that’s why economists who have dabbled in climate science, like Ross Mccitrick and Steve McIntyre have gotten things so wrong.
Reply
Chic Bowdrie says:
August 27, 2019 at 10:31 AM
I’m just guessing that McKitrick and McIntyre’s expertise was in statistics and Michael Mann’s was not.
Where is your expertise, Nate? Better than Mc&Mc?
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Donald L. Klipstein says:
August 25, 2019 at 8:42 PM
About that Greenland surface mass balance graph with a purple oval labeled in part “recovery”: That can sound like Greenland recovered an amount of ice about equal to what it lost during the brief melting, especially since the kind of graph of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance that I most often see is cumulative gain/loss for a season. I had to pay attention to this graph saying Gt/day, which merely bounced up to about zero after the melting. So Greenland did not recover lost ice (yet); merely the melting was a brief event that stopped.
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xenomoly says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:45 PM
That graph is the annual cumulative gain. Since 2016 Greenland has gained 1.2 trillion tons of ice. Most of that will obviously flow out to the sea eventually.
If every day was a melt day like the warmest melt day this year – it would still take Greenland 12000 years to melt. We would probably be well into the next glaciation before any significant melt of Greenland happened.
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Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:05 PM
Calm down!
The answer to your question is:
Cost/benefit analyses
If you don’t understand the principles, I am afraid I can’t help you.
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Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:07 PM
That was a response to previous comment by x.
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bobdroege says:
August 27, 2019 at 9:47 AM
Xenomoly,
Your math is bad
If the Greenland Ice sheet melts at the annual rate it is melting now, it would take 13000 years to melt, not the daily maximum rate that it experienced in one day this year.
At that max one day rate, if it was continuous, it would take 700 years.
But as they say don’t bet that current rates will continue, they are not guaranteed.
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Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:06 PM
Fact:
Data from NASAs GRACE satellites and GPS stations scattered around Greenland’s coast showed that between 2002 and 2016, Greenland lost approximately 280 billion tons of ice per year. This average annual ice melt is enough to cover the entire states of Florida and New York hip deep in meltwater, as well as drowning Washington, D.C. and one or two other small states.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/01/greeland-ice-melting-four-times-faster-than-thought-raising-sea-level/
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Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 12:41 AM
Fact.
And yet it didn’t!
How amazing is that?
Cheers.
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Coolist says:
August 26, 2019 at 6:48 PM
And what has happened over the last 3 years of cooling since 2016?
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Dr Myki says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:04 PM
What has happened? I dunno.
Look it up your self and enlighten us all.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:38 PM
DM,
Maybe you don’t understand – 3 years of cooling means the temperature has dropped.
Only pseudoscientific GHE true believers think that cooling means getting hotter.
Does that help?
Cheers.
Midas says:
August 25, 2019 at 9:12 PM
If you were being even-handed in your assessment, you would also have noted that the conservative media, and those that watch it, push an equal amount of rubbish science, as seen in this blog of yours.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 9:48 PM
M,
You seem to have noted it. Well done. More meaningless drivel, trying to bend others to your will, (all in their best interest, of course), and completely failing to address the post.
Carry on.
Cheers.
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xenomoly says:
August 25, 2019 at 10:52 PM
What conservative media?!?!?!
You mean Fox News? 1 channel – that SOMETIMES presents actual science instead of the exaggerated nonsense pumped out by EVERYTHING in western world media?
CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, Buzzfeed, Washington Post, New York Times, Scientific American ( the fall of this magazine has really hurt ), all of Hollywood, all schools, all colleges, all corporate America ( with the exception of a few industries ) — ALL bang the drum to the same beat. All of them pump the sam propaganda using the same exaggeration and the same bullshit claims. These same institutions incidentally also pump the same Overton window bound narrative for every other subject under the sun.
The far left drives the mainstream media in all things.
And you seriously think FoxNews, this blog, and some youtube channels can compete with that?
You are living in a propaganda bubble and you don’t seem to understand how all encompassing and pervasive it is.
I was a lifelong Democrat until I saw how corrupting this system was. As an atheist – it looks to me like a cult. And I can have no more part of it than I can any other religion. Its sad that the left has become so warped.
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Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:09 PM
Ah-ha!, the last refuge of the political scoundrel – “the media is against us!”
How about, “we were wrong all along”.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:23 PM
Begone, misrepresenting troll!
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Midas says:
August 26, 2019 at 1:05 AM
As an atheist, how does it feel to be on the same side of politics as those who believe the earth is 6000 years old?
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Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 1:40 AM
Begone, trouble-making troll!
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Xenomoly says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:13 PM
Thug? Can you be honest in any interaction?
You are a partisan buffoon.
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Dr Myki says:
August 25, 2019 at 11:45 PM
To be honest, you are a f…w..
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Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 12:30 AM
Begone, dishonest troll!
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Midas says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:22 AM
You are a dog who pisses on every tree to mark his territory.
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Entropic man says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:33 AM
Midas
Being rude to Mike Flynn is wasted effort. His stereotyped and limited responses suggest that he is a bot.
If he is human, his limited repertoire, strong territorial instincts and inability to debate suggest a low intelligence and lack of sensitivity to insults.
Midas says:
August 26, 2019 at 5:25 AM
I picture him as a pale, obese man who was bullied at school and is incapable of normal human interaction. His only means of communication is anonymously hurling insults at faceless strangers on the internet.
Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 8:51 PM
Chaps,
Why do either of you bother attempting to be rude? As Em points out, it is a waste of time. Why should I waste my time feeling insulted?
By the same token, if either of you choose to waste your time feeling insulted, offended, annoyed or any other pointless emotion showing your lack of self control, why blame me?
I don’t care, so why should you?
Maybe you could waste your time trying to come up with a useful GHE description. If you can’t, I really don’t understand why you waste your time trying to be annoying or gratuitously insulting. It won’t bother me unless you can provide me a good reason to care what you think.
Carry on.
Cheers.
Ian says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:05 PM
That’s a woof! from MF.
Midas says:
August 27, 2019 at 3:52 AM
MF
No denial then …
Mike Flynn says:
August 27, 2019 at 6:49 AM
Troll, begone!
ren says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:36 AM
There are still no hurricanes in the Atlantic.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atl&product=wv-mid
A tropical storm is approaching the Caribbean.
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Svante says:
September 4, 2019 at 2:29 PM
Test: El Niño.
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Svante says:
September 4, 2019 at 2:34 PM
😃
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ren says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:40 AM
La Nina is very likely in November.
http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC007/IDYOC007.201908.gif
https://i.imgur.com/fN7bqEF.png
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Midas says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:43 AM
How does that map show what will happen in November?
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ren says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:47 AM
Talk with NASA.
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Midas says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:56 AM
Your map was from BOM, not NASA.
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ren says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:46 AM
There is a deep solar minimum.
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/auto_generated_products/solradmon_eng.png
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Midas says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:57 AM
Yeah, exactly as deep as the last one, according to your graph.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 8:43 PM
Begone, troll!
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JDHuffman says:
August 26, 2019 at 5:19 AM
Dr Spencer, what a great post! It really captures the main problems in the AGW nonsense. Thanks!
The media, and most of the public, are not educated in the relevant sciences. They tend to gravitate to both sensationalism and “The Establishment”. I’m convinced that about half the population is only interested in fast food and entertaiment (“bread and circuses”). They are quite content to let someone else do the thinking. Therein lies the problem.
Bread and circuses
The Emperor Augustus was well aware of this risk and was keen to keep the poorest plebeians happy enough and reasonably well fed so that they would not riot. He began the system of state bribery that the writer Juvenal described as ‘bread and circuses’.
Free grain and controlled food prices meant that plebeians could not starve, while free entertainment — such as chariot races and gladiators in amphitheaters and the Circus Maximus — meant that they would not get bored and restless. Bribery it may have been, but it often worked.
https://www.pbs.org/empires/romans/empire/plebians.html
“Pseudoscience” is characterized by guesses, opinions, assumptions, and a quest for funding. The “research” is nothing more than paper after paper adding more guesses, opinions, assumptions and a quest for funding, to earlier papers. As we’ve seen, “Pseudoscience” relies heavily on intimidation, censorship, and shenanigans. The “coveted” Nobel Prize is almost completely corrupted by pseudoscience. Great scientists like Claude Shannon are slighted in favor of clowns.
“Science” does NOT violate the established laws of physics. “Science” is observable, demonstrable, repeatable, verifiable, and falsifiable. “Science” is a quest for truth. There is no place for despicable tactics.
Keep moving science forward, Dr Spencer.
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Midas says:
August 26, 2019 at 5:30 AM
Good to see you support the science of Roy Spencer and hence also support the science of the greenhouse effect.
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JDHuffman says:
August 26, 2019 at 5:52 AM
I didn’t forget you, Midas.
Such tactics as “misrepresentation” are covered under “shenanigans”.
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Midas says:
August 26, 2019 at 5:54 AM
Who am I misrepresenting?
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JDHuffman says:
August 26, 2019 at 6:59 AM
You’re unable to understand your own comment?
Or are you denying it?
Midas says:
August 26, 2019 at 7:43 AM
My comment involved two people – Roy Spencer and you.
Are you claiming I am misrepresenting both?
JDHuffman says:
August 26, 2019 at 8:05 AM
Eleven minutes after my initial comment, Midas jumps in, attempting to misrepresent me: “…and hence [you] also support the science of the greenhouse effect.”
22 minutes later, I catch him with his attempted misrepresentation.
Two minutes later, knowing he got caught, he starts backing away from his comment.
An hour and 5 minutes later, since I have other things to do today, I pin Midas down as to why he appears to be denying his own comment.
Now Midas returns, attempting more misrepresentation.
And, he’ll likely be trolling here all day.
Nothing new.
Midas says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:23 PM
Roy Spencer fully supports the science of the greenhouse effect.
You asked him to “keep moving science forward”, thereby agreeing with his science.
Which of those statements is incorrect? And as I only asked questions, one has to wonder what “logic” you used to claim I was “backing away from my comment”.
JDHuffman says:
August 26, 2019 at 4:31 PM
Gone for over 7 hours, Midas now returns, attempting more misrepresentation.
And, he’ll likely be trolling here all day.
Nothing new.
Midas says:
August 26, 2019 at 6:55 PM
What purpose do you believe noting my sleep time serves? Are you going to act as my daily diary as a diversion from addressing my issue?
JDHuffman says:
August 26, 2019 at 8:32 PM
Midas got caught misrepresenting.
Now he resorts to the distracting questions.
All trolls must attend the same classes.
Midas says:
August 27, 2019 at 12:23 AM
Dr Spencer, JDHuffman claims I misrepresented you when I said you support the science of the greenhouse effect.
Mike Flynn says:
August 27, 2019 at 1:38 AM
Sly tattletale.
Cheers.
JDhuffman says:
August 27, 2019 at 6:51 AM
Just more of the same.
Trolls like Midas have nothing else. They can’t help themselves.
Nothing new.
JHPrince says:
August 26, 2019 at 5:40 AM
IN Norfolk Va, it is oft reported that simply sea level is the main driver of the rise, but it’s scientific that subsidence accounts for more than half of the relative sea level. Local political efforts curiously revolve around emissions reductions
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Fulco says:
August 26, 2019 at 5:42 AM
Roy,
Your article has only one minor flaw…
IT WILL NOT BE PUBLISHED IN MAINSTREAM MEDIA.
Is there a closed physical/chemical model that can describe the earth atmosphere and where can I find it ( not a CO2 radio with a knob) ?
Since the science has settled not a strange question I think.
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Jos Dam says:
August 26, 2019 at 7:00 AM
Thank you, Dr Spencer, for this article. It’s a breath of fresh air in the current flood of b.s. climate ‘news’. Too bad that we all know that the mainstream media will gleefully ignore it…
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Scott R says:
August 26, 2019 at 7:15 AM
Dr Spencer nice rant! Careful… google might start blocking your website. lol
Please consider the following:
1. El Nino ocean temperatures lead global ocean temperature which lead global air temperatures. Air never leads water short of a major volcanic eruption.
2. Most of the global warming since 1980 occurred at night. (day time highs are not increasing, night time lows are increasing)
3. If the reason for the increase is CO2, it must therefore be due to the ocean heat content, because air doesn’t lead water.
4. Sea level has been completely linear for 170 years, which shows no signal from CO2 due to permanent ice melt or thermal expansion.
5. There have been multiple periods of time where sea level increased while ocean temperatures decreased:
1878 -> 1917
Ocean dropped by 1.07 deg c
Sea level rose by .046 meters
1942 -> 1976
Ocean dropped by .64 deg c
Sea level rose by .025 meters.
Note sea level in New York Battery was taken as proxy.
6. North Atlantic temperatures topped in 2012, same time ice cover was at a min in the arctic. Sea level in New York also topped in 2010, near this ice min.
7. Since 1850, we have been recording ocean temperature data and have therefore only captured part of the 400 year solar cycle.
8. Conclusion: Sea level linear rise is a function of isostatic rebound. Short term fluctuations along the linear trend are likely caused by fluctuation in the north Atlantic temperature / arctic ice cover and are not permanent.
9. Please consider the following papers:
Relationship between El Nino and the 11 year solar cycle
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2008GL034831
The 400 year cycle (Zharkova)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=Bl2gg7lT7OM
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Scott R says:
August 26, 2019 at 7:23 AM
Bottom line: the sun is the #1 climate change forcer when talking about sea level rise, the most important consequence of climate change. Isostatic rebound is due to the changes in TSI over tens of thousands of years and the end of an ice age. That was caused by the earth’s orbit and tilt. That has nothing to do with us.
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Midas says:
August 26, 2019 at 7:41 AM
“Most of the global warming since 1980 occurred at night.”
I’ve already pointed out that this is a US phenomenon. In Australia and the UK, most of the warming has occurred during the day.
“Sea level has been completely linear for 170 years”
Absolutely no true. Try actually calculating changes in level for different levels instead of relying on your eyesight to determine changes in the slope of graphs.
“Note sea level in New York Battery was taken as proxy.”
So you think one station is representative of global sea level changes?
“the 400 year solar cycle”
How many ‘cycles’ do you think you need to prove that there is indeed a cycle?
“Sea level linear rise is a function of isostatic rebound”
When the land rises, apparent sea level as measured by tide gauges FALLS.
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Scott R says:
August 26, 2019 at 12:33 PM
Midas,
I’m pretty sure Roy studied this day night split for the globe since 1980. Perhaps he’d like to comment on the global results. It’s not critical to my position, but it is a funny side note that days are cooling in the USA.
Anyways…
If CO2 was the main forcer, the rate of change of sea level should be increasing. It has not. This linear trend is different depending on location around the world, but the data points are easily represented by a line. Even if there is a SLIGHT change that is not visible by eyeballing, most of the sea level change is natural. Have you checked to see if the data points are falling above 1 standard deviation of the linear trend more often now? I haven’t. Where is your proof that the slope is increasing?
New York makes good proxy because it is 1/2 way between Northern Canada (rising) and Louisiana (sinking) and we have good historical data points to confirm. If you want to argue for another location as proxy for the globe, please by all means tell me which location to study, I’ll take a look.
We have SO many cycles to consider. Not only do you have the main cycle, but harmonics present. This requires many filters to get the down beat cycle. Maybe I’m not sure what you are asking there.
By isostatic rebound you do realize locations are also sinking right? Rising land displaces water, so other areas around the world can see a sea level increase if there is an isostatic rebound for instance in Northern Canada. Places like Louisiana are really screwed.
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Nate says:
August 27, 2019 at 7:54 AM
Scott,
A lot of your assertions are either FALSE or have no evidence.
‘1. El Nino ocean temperatures lead global ocean temperature which lead global air temperatures. Air never leads water short of a major volcanic eruption.’
Only true for ENSO.
‘3. If the reason for the increase is CO2, it must therefore be due to the ocean heat content, because air doesnt lead water.’
Nope, only demonstrated for ENSO, not for CO2.
“4. Sea level has been completely linear for 170 years, which shows no signal from CO2 due to permanent ice melt or thermal expansion.”
FALSE! you must not have looked at real papers.
“5. There have been multiple periods of time where sea level increased while ocean temperatures decreased:”
1878 -> 1917
Ocean dropped by 1.07 deg c
Sea level rose by .046 meters”
Huh? 1.07 C drop??!! Nonsense. Show us a source.
“1942 -> 1976
Ocean dropped by .64 deg c
Sea level rose by .025 meters.”
Again doubtful, show us a source.
“Note sea level in New York Battery was taken as proxy.”
Bad proxy. Various places land is rising or falling. Need global average.
“6. North Atlantic temperatures topped in 2012, same time ice cover was at a min in the arctic. Sea level in New York also topped in 2010, near this ice min.”
Bad proxy
“7. Since 1850, we have been recording ocean temperature data and have therefore only captured part of the 400 year solar cycle.”
Assumed. Source?
“8. Conclusion: Sea level linear rise is a function of isostatic rebound. Short term fluctuations along the linear trend are likely caused by fluctuation in the north Atlantic temperature / arctic ice cover and are not permanent.”
Unproven speculation.
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Scott R says:
August 29, 2019 at 9:54 AM
Nate I’m having trouble posting… perhaps there is a limit to how many links I can share. I’ll try again.
El Nino is the #1 forcer on the planet and it is caused by the sun.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1REud2hTHZiRYsNw_3O6dTPR4BJurHJe2/view?usp=sharing
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2008GL034831
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Scott R says:
August 30, 2019 at 5:57 AM
Nate,
Find me a location that sea level has not been linear. Use the NOAA tides and currents database. (link won’t post)
The source of the global ocean temperature data Im using is HADSTT3.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QJS_EZyyBH9vqm3lFlMtGDyLCSOA7azY/view?usp=sharing
I used New York as proxy for the globe because it is way between northern Canada (rising) and Louisiana (falling), and it has a good period of data collection. If you have another proxy location that youd like me to look at, Id be happy to consider it.
Ive already posted the links to the information on the 400 year cycle. Please take a look.
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Nate says:
August 30, 2019 at 1:29 PM
Scott, why are you measuring in one place, when we have plenty of data on the whole globe? Not sensible.
Church and White is a good example spaper.
Church J, White N.. A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. Geophys Res Lett 33: L01602
Article in Geophysical Research Letters 33(1):L01602 January 2006 with 418 Reads
DOI: 10.1029/2005GL024826
Cite this publication
John~A. Church
Neil~J. White
Abstract
[1] Multi-century sea-level records and climate models indicate an acceleration of sea-level rise, but no 20th century acceleration has previously been detected. A reconstruction of global sea level using tide-gauge data from 1950 to 2000 indicates a larger rate of rise after 1993 and other periods of rapid sea-level rise but no significant acceleration over this period. Here, we extend the reconstruction of global mean sea level back to 1870 and find a sea-level rise from January 1870 to December 2004 of 195 mm, a 20th century rate of sea-level rise of 1.7 0.3 mm yr−1 and a significant acceleration of sea-level rise of 0.013 0.006 mm yr−2. This acceleration is an important confirmation of climate change simulations which show an acceleration not previously observed. If this acceleration remained constant then the 1990 to 2100 rise would range from 280 to 340 mm, consistent with projections in the IPCC TAR.
Are you saying the rise in SL has been constant? For how long?
By satellite measurements, that all agree is pretty reliable, the current rate of rise (last 26y) is 3.3 mm/y = .33 m/century.
How long has that been going on do you think?
If since Roman times, then SL would have been 6 m lower back then, 20 centuries ago.
We know from Roman sites in Italy and elsewhere that that was not possible, given archaelogical sites, like fish tanks, on the coastline.
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Scott R says:
September 5, 2019 at 7:22 AM
Nate,
I’m looking at individual locations for validation of the work the experts have done and I’m not finding any evidence that the sea level rise is anything but a linear trend since the 1800s when CO2 levels increased exponentially. That is the bottom line issue here. IF CO2 was the main factor of sea level rise, you would see the rate of change increasing for all locations around the globe. That signal should be found everywhere. Instead we see widely different trends, all linear though. Also, we know sea level was not at constant equilibrium prior to the introduction of man made gasses. It went up and down… most recently UP as the last ice age ended, and at a much, much faster rate I might add then we are seeing now. I’ve concluded most of the sea level changes we see are from isostatic rebound, other geological processes. We therefore need to sort the changes we record between man made and natural. I do not see this being done in the main stream. They are trying to put it all on us when sea level would continue to rise regardless of what we do. This is misleading the public and is very dangerous. We could cut CO2 100% and live in huts with no power and sea level would still go up. We simply need to embrace these changes, and regulate new construction on the coast. It does not make sense to deny sea level rise, but we need to understand the trend as measured on the coast. What the satellites say is interesting, but is of no practical value to actual people living there. Issues with programing / software / orbital decay could lead to misunderstandings with that type of data. Interestingly, I’ve been able to validate Dr. Spencer’s work using local data, but not the sat data for sea level. Why is that? It makes you wonder.
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Nate says:
September 5, 2019 at 10:27 AM
‘Im not finding any evidence that the sea level rise is anything but a linear trend since the 1800s when CO2 levels increased exponentially. That is the bottom line issue here.’
Sorry Scott, AFAIK your findings are cherry-picked and anecdotal.
A choice between that and published, peer-reviewed, comprehensive data and analysis, with uncertainties, I’ll have to go with the latter.
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Steve Case says:
August 26, 2019 at 7:19 AM
Excellent post (-:
The points about Greenland were right on the mark.
Some further questions:
Whats the ratio between surface melt changes in ice balance and snow accumulation and calving of ice bergs in that same regard?
What about the theory that water flowing into moulins lubricates and speeds up the flow of ice and the calving process?
Historically are those rivers of blue water flowing into the moulins a new thing or has that always been the case and how do we know that?
Whats the average temperature of Greenland, above or below freezing?
Is Greenland losing or gaining ice and whats the predominant process involved with that?
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Ulrike P says:
August 26, 2019 at 8:36 AM
Well, the crux is that the surface mass balance is measured daily – but the calving of ice bergs is not, because it can’t. DMI publishes satellite photos of the Greenland glaciers from time to time, during summer time. You can see them here http://polarportal.dk/groenland/position-af-gletsjerfronter/ and it is difficult to say if a glacier grows or retreats, certainly not on a daily basis. Therefore, in order to calculate the total ice balance of a specific year, they use the (decadal?) average value for the calving and the annual accumulated surface balance. In other words, a long-term value and a rather accurate short-term value. The two values are of the same magnitude, if you are interested in the report of 2018, you find it here (in English) http://polarportal.dk/forsiden/saesonrapport-2018/
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steve case says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:24 AM
If you know the SMB daily, and the total yearly by satellite the the average third grader could figure out the annual loss or gain from glacier calving.
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Scott R says:
August 26, 2019 at 2:06 PM
Steve Case,
The average temperature of Greenland is most definitely below freezing at all times of the year. You can watch it’s temperature here:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=T2m&runtime=2019082612&fh=6
Curiously, even though the majority of Greenland never get’s above freezing even during the middle of summer, we are supposed to believe that the ice sheet is in trouble. Here is a plot of temperatures on the ice sheet:
http://promice.org/WeatherArchive.html?promiceStationStationid=211&stationid=211
The coast is where the majority of the weather stations are… also the location of all the TV cameras recording “global warming melt”. It gets above freezing there all the time. If it didn’t, the ocean would freeze and we would quickly go into an ice age.
But if you are interested in average, it is definitely a VERY cold place year round.
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Dr Myki says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:50 PM
“Many scientists who have spent their careers on the ice sheet have witnessed these changes firsthand. Konrad Steffen, who has built up a record of meteorological readings around Greenland over the course of the past 30 years, has calculated that between 1990 and 2018 average temperatures on the ice sheet have increased by about 2.8 degrees Celsius, or 5 degrees Fahrenheit. While the highest points on the ice sheet are still mostly resistant to melting, over the same 30-year time period the total area of the ice sheet that has become vulnerable to surface melting has increased by around 65 percent. And what seems clear now is that Greenland is no longer changing in geological time. It is changing in human time.”
https://e360.yale.edu/features/in-greenlands-melting-ice-a-warning-on-hard-climate-choices
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Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 8:42 PM
DM,
As it has done before, in the opposite direction. If you don’t know about the Younger Dryas event, maybe you could look it up. Enormous changes in less than 5 years or so, repeated.
Look at the rate of change of temperature – much greater in the past. No point panicking until things get a lot, lot, worse.
Cheers.
Reply
Dr Myki says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:06 PM
Woof!
Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:40 PM
Begone, troll!
Scott R says:
August 27, 2019 at 6:28 AM
Dr Myki,
Even during the warmest year 2011-2012, (which was also the peak temperature for the North Atlantic which has since plummeted) there was a mass gain on Greenland.
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
Note, the map shows departure from average, not mass loss. Every year is a gain. How much of a gain varies. There has been absolutely no interruption of the onset of the next ice age even though the sun was at a 400 year high for activity in the last 70 years, and we pumped 400 ppm co2 into the air. Despite this, Greenland gained mass. Maybe we should all start to think about what can be done to head off the next ice age and the GSM. Perhaps we should start government programs to incentivize people to burn more gas.
OK I’m being a little facetious. lol
I just want the government OUT of the business of propping up types of energy. They can focus on keeping the air and water free of actual pollution which CO2 is not.
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bobdroege says:
August 27, 2019 at 10:44 AM
This is what your cite actually says
“Until recently, the mass was roughly in at state of balance. That is, the amount of snow falling on the surface was the same as the mass leaving the ice sheet as melt water runoff or discharge of icebergs. The Greenland Ice Sheet now loses more mass than it receives.”
Scott R says:
August 27, 2019 at 11:21 AM
bobdroege,
That seems to be a consistent divergence across various governmental agencies researching climate change. The base data says one thing, the conclusion says another. Perhaps that has more to do with funding than anything.
1. It is NOT possible for snow to be pushed down a hill by the weight of snow unless there is more SNOW there to push it and take it’s place.
2. The temperature does not go above freezing on the majority of the Greenland ice sheet at any time of year to start any other process for mass removal.
It is a self correcting system. The faster the snow fall, the more snow melts when it hits the ocean. The slower the snow fall, the less snow melts at the ocean. There isn’t enough change in air temperature to be making any difference to this system. The only change is the amount of precipitation falling, and the temperature of the ocean. That may change the balance of this system, but will not stop it from happening or melt the Greenland ice sheet, create run away global warming.
Steve Case says:
August 28, 2019 at 1:00 PM
Some things to think about:
Icicles form on your roof in winter. The air is below freezing but the sun melts some snow anyway and when the melt water drops over the eve and out of the sunlight, it freezes in the cold air to form the icicle. Now think about melt water on the surface of Greenland in the summer sun and disappearing down a moulin. Think about the claim that the meltwater finds its way to the bottom to lubricate the flowing glacier and make it flow faster. While you are considering that thought think about how ice skates work. The pressure between the blade and the ice causes the ice to liquefy and skater slides on a film of water. Now apply that to how a glacier moves with or without moulin water.
Think about how much surface melt water there is compared to how much ice calves into the sea every year in Greenland. Think about the dynamics of the flowing Greenland ice cap the falling snow and the time interval before it calves into the sea as an iceberg.
Think about sea level rise and where the water comes from to make it rise. Think about other scenarios besides melt water from ice caps and glaciers that could cause sea level rise.
Think about the claim that Greenland is melting and is on the way to cause catastrophic sea level rise.
Scott R says:
August 28, 2019 at 2:03 PM
Steve Case,
Greenland is gaining mass currently. Every winter, which lasts for 9 months, it adds 600 gt of new ice. Every summer, which lasts 3 months, it loses a fraction of that that varies from year to year.
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
The reason you see more and more ice melt at the coast isn’t that it is getting warmer, the reason is that the snow is falling faster on the ice sheet then it is currently melting. So the yearly losses are increasing trying to reach equilibrium with the winter gains.
The fact that we have mass gains means that we are slowly headed into an ice age uninterrupted by human activity.
As far as the sun melting snow… I agree the sun could melt some snow with temperatures below freezing, but that is not a new phenomenon and is just part of the overall mass balance equation. The water still moves down hill, most likely refreezing along the way as this process takes thousands of years and includes many winter / summer cycles. Even hitting shade in the middle of summer will likely freeze the water again, at a lower elevation where it is more protected. As mentioned, summer temps on the ice sheet rarely go above freezing and when they do it is only for a matter of hours.
By the way, sea level rise is linear and is from isostatic rebound most likely… or other geological processes. There is no co2 signature in sea level rise.
Steve Case says:
August 28, 2019 at 6:41 PM
Scott R says:
August 28, 2019 at 2:03 PM
August 27, 2019 at 11:21 AM
My point is:
The Greenland ice mass balance has everything to do with snow fall and calving of icebergs and nothing to do with temperature.
Water for sea level rise has to come from somewhere. The Greenland and Antarctic ice caps are a good bet for that.
Telling people that they have to stop using fire isn’t going to change anything climate-wise. World economy is a different story on that point which seems to be the goal.
Nate says:
August 27, 2019 at 8:33 AM
‘What about the theory that water flowing into moulins lubricates and speeds up the flow of ice and the calving process?
Historically are those rivers of blue water flowing into the moulins a new thing or has that always been the case and how do we know that?’
Good questions! I would like to know that as well.
My impression is moulins have always been there, but may be larger or more of them now. Must be if Mass balance is decreasing.
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Steve Case says:
August 28, 2019 at 10:52 PM
Nate says:
August 27, 2019 at 8:33 AM
Do you think the melt water gets all the way to the bottom? If it does do you think that it makes the ice sheet flow faster? If so how do you know that?
You don’t have to search very far to find the theory that melt water from the surface lubricates ice flow at the bottom of the glacier.
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Barry Milliken says:
August 26, 2019 at 7:51 AM
The best recipe for anyone to start a new global religion:
1. Postulate enormous collective guilt.
2. Predict that we all go to hell unless we follow your holy command.
3. Declare yourself infallible.
4. Build an awesome cathedral.
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captain droll says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:45 PM
Croak!
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Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 4:44 PM
Begone, troll!
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Midas says:
August 27, 2019 at 3:50 AM
Sounds like the Trump religion.
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John Garrett says:
August 26, 2019 at 7:52 AM
Dr. Spencer-
That is an excellent essay.
The English, art history, poetry, sociology, political science and anthropology majors who end up in journalism are singularly unqualified to evaluate the wild exaggerations made by pseudoscience.
Many go into journalism because they are misanthropes and crypto-dictators who are convinced they are destined to “save the world.”
They have confused a closed, static, single variable, controlled benchtop laboratory experiment (Arrhenius) with an open, immensely complex (possibly chaotic), multivariate, dynamic (climate) system.
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Dr Myki says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:44 PM
Spoken like a true ageing conservative!
I assume your reference to the “wild exaggerations made by pseudoscience” refers to published science. You obviously have no idea how the publication and review system filters out b.s. That is why there is so very little material published which disputes GHG -related global warming. I would love to read such material rather than listen to the lame claims of amateurs and malcontents who offer up their personal beliefs and long-discredited talking points. Can you point me to anything?
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Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 4:43 PM
DM,
Maybe you could point out a publication which contains a useful description of the mythical GHE?
Journals have a record of publishing absolute nonsense, and being forced to retract it, albeit unwillingly, when defects are pointed out.
Nobody has ever demonstrated that CO2 can make thermometers hotter.
You are deluded, just like Schmidt, Mann, and all teh rest.
Cheers.
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Dr Myki says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:07 PM
Woof woof!
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Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:19 PM
Troll, begone!
Coolist says:
August 27, 2019 at 5:43 PM
Dr Myki: Here are some examples for you:
-R. Revelle, H. Suess, “CO2 exchange between atmosphere and ocean and the question of an increase of atmospheric CO2 during past decades�. Tellus. 9: 18-27; 1957
– H. Harde, “Scrutinizing the carbon cycle and CO2 residence time in the atmosphereâ€�. Global and Planetary Change. 152, 19-26; 2017. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116304787.
– H. Harde, “What Humans Contribute to Atmospheric CO2: Comparison of Carbon Cycle Models with Observationsâ€�. International Journal of Earth Sciences Vol. 8, No. 3, 2019, pp. x=x. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20190803.xx
– E. X Berry, “A fatal flaw in global warming scienceâ€�. Basic Science of a Changing Climate. Porto University, Portugal. Sep 7; 2018.
– E. X Berry, “Contradictions to IPCC’s climate change theoryâ€�. Annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society, Phoenix; 2019.
– J. Munshi, “Responsiveness of atmospheric CO2 to fossil fuel
emissions: Updated�. SSRN; 2017.
– O. Humlum, K. Stordahl, J.E. Solheim, “The phase relation between atmospheric CO2 and global temperaturesâ€�. Global and Planetary Change, 100, pp 51-69, 2013.
– M. L. Salby, “Atmosphere Carbonâ€�. Video Presentation, July 18, 2016. University College London.
-M. L. Salby, “What is really behind the increase in atmospheric CO2?� Video Presentation, October 10, 2018. Helmut-Schmidt-University Hamburg, Germany.
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Gordon Robertson says:
August 28, 2019 at 12:06 AM
John…I think you have summed it well.
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Ulrike P says:
August 26, 2019 at 8:23 AM
Dear Dr. Spencer,
Thank you for the essay.
I learned of another media bias today, which had been the subject of public “trouble and worry” in Denmark for the past 2 weeks. It regarded the final meltdown and vanishing of the “Ok” glacier in Iceland, which the media attributed to anthropogenic global warming. The thing is, the glacier only formed 700 years ago. That the glacier would disappear was a fact that was so publicly acknowledged that school text books would 50 years ago announce its vanishing! But nevertheless, the former glacier reached fame and received a kind of funeral:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUBW_gbOATo
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Ron Berti says:
August 26, 2019 at 9:19 AM
Dr. Spencer
A fine exposition of the state of the art. I hope you will continue to focus on a three-step process, as follows:
1. Has the earth’s surface warmed in the past 200 years?
2. Have weather events gotten worse in that time, either in the world or in North America? (I believe the clear answer is “no”)
3. Do we know enough about “global warming” to qualify an economic program that will “fundamentally transform” the economy of the USA? The World?
I have in addition a specific question. When it comes to “climate sensitivity”, the way it’s usually described is “that amount of GMT increase that you will get by doubling CO2”. But I believe that’s a moving target because CO2’s impact on the atmosphere is asymptotic, so the value decreases. As we proceed from 400ppm to (the unimagninable) 800 ppm, the rate of the impact on the environment will be smaller (do we know how much smaller?) than it was from ~300 ppm to 400ppm, as I understand it.
Last, can you comment on the prediction that the earth is entering a Grand Solar Minimum likely to last 30-40 years? If that’s the case, is that not likely to offset, largely or even possibly completely, whatever impact humans have on the climate through CO2?
Thanks for your untiring efforts to clarify the arguments. I do wish we could have 3 or 4 televised debates on these (top 3) topics, I think it would really help the public understand what’s going on, which is, to listen to many in the Warmer community, “not about the science, but about empowering socialism”.
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Dr Myki says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:19 PM
God help us!
Another amateur who has come late to the topic armed with a list of denialist talking points that have been debunked umpteen times over the past couple of decades.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 4:38 PM
DM,
You certainly need God’s help.
Neither physics nor Nature support your pseudoscientific GHE true believer dogma.
Cheers.
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Dr Myki says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:08 PM
Woof.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:19 PM
Begone, troll!
Gordon Robertson says:
August 28, 2019 at 12:09 AM
ron…”As we proceed from 400ppm to (the unimagninable) 800 ppm, the rate of the impact on the environment will be smaller (do we know how much smaller?) than it was from ~300 ppm to 400ppm, as I understand it”.
What impact came from the so-called change from ~300 ppmv and 400 ppmv. I mean, where’s the scientific evidence that can meet the requirements of the scientific method?
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Nate says:
August 26, 2019 at 9:54 AM
Yes the Media gets science wrong quite often. They exaggerate current events over historical events quite often. They distort science by failing to mention uncertainties and failing to put a recent paper in context of all others.
But is the answer to distort and exaggerate in the opposite direction?
I don’t think so.
“for those of us who keep track of such things, farmland and some rainforest in Amazonia and adjacent lands has been burned by farmers for many decades during this time of year so they can plant crops. This year is not exceptional in this regard, yet someone decided to make an issue of it this year. In fact, it looks like 2019 might be one of the lowest years for biomass burning. ”
No, not true. This year is a genuine record for number of fires by this time, according to statistics from satellite monitoring:
http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal-static/situacao-atual/
“July 2019 was the hottest month on record”
Yes this is actually true according to MOST available surface temperature records.
“Expensive sources of energy forced upon the masses by governmental fiat kill poor people simply because expensive energy exacerbates poverty, and poverty leads to premature death. ”
This is simply an unproven assertion. Please show any data on deaths caused by renewable energy. There is no such data.
In contrast, there are, demonstrably, tens of thousands of early deaths every year caused by air pollution from coal burning.
“And still I am widely considered a climate denier.”
I don’t know if you are a climate denier, but the climate deniers certainly believe you are a climate denier. And as a result, flock to this blog.
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JDHuffman says:
August 26, 2019 at 10:39 AM
Nate, thanks for demonstrating how people have been rendered braindead by all the media propaganda.
You probably spent all morning putting that together without even realizing AGW was a hoax, huh?
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Nate says:
August 26, 2019 at 12:17 PM
‘You probably spent all morning putting that together’
Not really, but JD, as usual you put no thought into your post, and thus it is content-free.
Par for the course.
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JDHuffman says:
August 26, 2019 at 5:13 PM
Another example of how braindead the media can make people like Nate.
Thanks Nate.
See if you can offer more examples, please.
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Nate says:
August 27, 2019 at 8:27 AM
Just more from JDs monkey assistants typing on keyboards.
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JDHuffman says:
August 27, 2019 at 4:50 PM
Another good example, Nate. Thanks.
Keep them coming.
barry k says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:34 AM
Nate,
I suspect you need to re-calibrate your mental scientific bias equipment. Dr Spencer has stayed pretty middle-of-the road and has dedicated numerous articles and blog responses trying to un-distort those on both sides of the issue…
Regarding the Amazon… ‘number of fires’ doesn’t equate to ‘biomass burning’.
Regarding deaths… I think you’re capable of understanding the implication; it doesn’t have anything to do with the energy source, it has to do with money. If poor people (or people in general) have less money, more of them will die prematurely. ‘air pollution’ doesn’t equate to CO2 levels and we now have ‘clean coal’ and so pollution in the US has improved dramatically even while using lots of coal, etc. Bottom line renewable energy costs more in dollars.
People need to use another term than ‘climate denier’. It really is a foolish made-up term that has no sense. Who denies climate?
Cheers!
Barry
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Dan says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:47 AM
Nate,
Most of what you’ve said is simply B.S., but rather than refute each statement, let’s cut to the chase. The whole idea that the earth has warmed over the last 120 years is questionable. If it has, the reality is that any warming is almost certainly lower than what the supposed experts claim. Actual surface temperature data says that there has been virtually no warming.
The surface temperature records from all over the globe have been manipulated to produce warming since the beginning of the last century. All you have to do is look at the raw data and you’ll see that the 1930’s were warmer than today. You’ll see that the trend is virtually flat all over the globe. Today’s “adjusted” data is polluted by the urban heat island effects that are actually used as a justification for modifying uncorrupted rural records upward so that they are more “in line” with the supposed warming. Furthermore, they adjust pre-1960 data downward, for no good reason.
Also, much of the surface temperature data from the oceans in the southern hemisphere, Africa, and parts of Asia is sparse or missing altogether. But that hasn’t stopped NOAA from making up the data, using their flawed “adjusted” data as a basis.
Dr. Spencer’s UAH data on atmospheric temperature shows warming from 1979 to 1998, a flat temperature profile from 1998 to 2016, and a blip up in 2016-17 due to the strong El Nino, and close to a return to the 1998-2016 norms afterward. But this record only goes back to 1979. There are likely other influences, such as several climate influencing stratospheric volcanic eruptions that biased temperatures downward in the 1980’s and early 1990’s, creating an appearance of rising temperatures since 1979.
Any scientist worth his salt would have to say, given the state of the temperature data, that there is no concrete proof of global warming, much less proof that it is human caused.
If we really want answers regarding climate, we need to take an honest and unbiased look at the data that we do have, eliminate corrupt data, and look at all possible causes for variations – from the urban heat island, to volcanoes to ocean currents. But right now, the “official” surface data is garbage, adjusted using a myriad of questionable assumptions by people with confirmation bias who are determined to find warming, wherever it may be hiding.
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Nate says:
August 26, 2019 at 12:09 PM
‘Actual surface temperature data says that there has been virtually no warming.’
Just a bunch of flimsy denier-blogosphere talking points.
The data we don’t like is no good, or fraudulent.
The data we do like is handed down direct from God.
Heard it all before, Dan.
As I said, “the climate deniers certainly believe you are a climate denier. And as a result, flock to this blog.”
You made my point.
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Dan says:
August 26, 2019 at 7:39 PM
Nate,
Let’s see, I provide legit information about the surface temperature record and evidence for possible causes for the lower atmospheric temperatures of the 1980’s and early 1990’s, and you provide … ad hominems. Typical of the climate alarmist crowd. When you don’t like the message, attack the messenger.
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Dr Myki says:
August 26, 2019 at 3:26 PM
Dan – your garbled post is a joke surely?
It is a typical denialist rant that gives you guys such a bad name.
“we need to take an honest and unbiased look at the data”
LOL – just a one word answer : BEST
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Chris Hanley says:
August 26, 2019 at 4:10 PM
“LOL just a one word answer : BEST …”.
If you mean Berkeley Earth here are just two longterm stations unaffected by UHIE, one an isolated lighthouse the other a rural station far from any large city, that illustrate how falling longterm T trends are adjusted to show warming:
http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/stations/151786
http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/stations/151841
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Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 4:36 PM
DM,
BEST? You jest!
What you call a person who claims that increasing numbers in a collection does not increase the average of that collection? Fool, fraud, incompetent, stupid?
Your choice.
Cheers,
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Dr Myki says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:09 PM
Huh? Are you deranged doggy?
Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:18 PM
Begone, impotently yapping troll!
Gordon Robertson says:
August 28, 2019 at 12:13 AM
dan…”The whole idea that the earth has warmed over the last 120 years is questionable”.
Do you mean warming due to anthropogenic sources or just warming? There is little doubt there has been warming, however, there was a mini ice age before the warming. Global temps were 1C to 2C below normal for 400 years before 1850, so we’d expect it to warm when that mini ice age ended.
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Nate says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:57 AM
‘Bottom line renewable energy costs more in dollars.’
Quickly becoming cost-competitive.
Wind: already beats alternatives in great plains.
Solar beats Nuclear, Clean Coal (expensive) already.
Clean coal-not being implimented in developing nations.
It is simply hyperbole, and fear-mongering, to claim a technology causes deaths, when their is no evidence that it does or will with so many other variables.
If a developing country doesnt yet have a grid, then wind or solar could be an alternative
Paris accords: developing countries still will use energy to develop. Assistance from 1st world to develop MORE renewably.
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Norman says:
August 26, 2019 at 8:59 PM
Nate
The major problem with wind is NOT the cost of production. It is the reliability of this resource. It is like a useless friend. They come when you don’t really need them to help and leave when you really need them. Wind blows the strongest in the plains in the Spring and Fall. Both these seasons are also the lowest power demand seasons. The Summer and Winter are when the power demand rises and wind is not where to be found.
Currently in the MISO energy region the wind is blowing okay. You should monitor this link on a regular basis. You will see how unreliable wind really is. You could not hope to sustain any type of advanced Civilization if you relied on wind as your primary energy source. It is okay as a back up resource. It is always good to have multiple sources of power available. But wind is not the answer for the future of mankind. I am disappointed that the Green Movement embraces this boondoggle as some form of salvation. We could have invested this money in a resource that would actually light up the future like Bussard type fusion (fusing abundant boron nuclei with hydrogen)…only alpa particles as outcome of reaction and energy. No neutrons.
Here is a link to MISO. Try to figure out who will go without power. On really hot summer days the wind can be as low as 1000 MW for the entire MISO region but the demand is 120,000 MW. It can be like this for weeks. Good luck keeping the people happy when they can’t pump gas for their cars, use air-conditioning, refrigerate food, cook with an oven, etc…
https://www.misoenergy.org/markets-and-operations/real-time–market-data/real-time-displays/
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barry k says:
August 27, 2019 at 7:12 AM
Nate,
We’ve had these discussions before…
With wind/solar in particular ‘becoming cost-competitive’ may be true for the generators, but not even close when factoring in everything (smart grid/storage/back-up sources to handle dis-continuous nature and transmission lines to account for optimal locations to place generators). I agree wind in the great plains where there is a current need for more electricity is a great idea; it’s an optimal location. As far as Solar as a primary energy source, I once heard a professor researching Solar say something to the effect even if the panels were free it would be too expensive.
I didn’t claim renewable energy technology causes deaths. However, a society that forces expensive technology on itself will create more poverty. More poverty means lower life expectancy. That seems a pretty straightforward logical argument.
Developing world and first world are just different worlds. In the developing world they may be just fine without having electricity at night or when the wind doesn’t blow. The Paris accord is just another opportunity for political animals to pat themselves on the back and look good to their voting constituents. It’s just a piece of paper and signing it doesn’t require writing any checks. The proof is in the pudding and we’ll see how much money first world countries are willing to dedicate to developing countries. I’m doubtful because we’re not talking millions, we’re talking trillions. Energy is an expensive business.
Barry
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Mark B says:
August 26, 2019 at 12:39 PM
“There are no human fingerprints of global warming. None. Climate change is simply assumed to be mostly human-caused (which is indeed possible), while our knowledge of natural climate change is almost non-existent.”
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C44&q=anthropogenic+fingerprint+global+warming&btnG=
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C44&q=global+warming+attribution&btnG=
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C44&q=natural+forcing+climate+change&btnG=
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JDHuffman says:
August 26, 2019 at 1:31 PM
Mark B, you must be really smart to know how to do searches like that. And, being so smart, you’ve probably read everyone of those “papers”.
How about linking to the very best one, that is not behind a paywall, so we can have fun tearing it apart?
You know the old saying: “If they can’t take the heat, they should get out of the AGW hoax”.
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Gordon Robertson says:
August 28, 2019 at 12:17 AM
mark b…from your 3rd link…”extremely unlikely that global climate change of the past fifty years can be explained without xternal forcing, and very likely that it is not due to known natural causes ”
Since when is ‘likely’ part of the scientific method? Your links are to climate model crap which is nothing more than eco-weenies and their pseudo-scientific consensus.
Not an ounce of proof.
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Mark B says:
August 28, 2019 at 8:40 AM
Regardless of whether or not you accept the particulars of attribution studies, the statement that “Climate change is simply assumed to be mostly human-caused” is not true.
The statement that all attribution studies are based on “climate model crap” is also objectively not true.
The bigger point is that distorting the facts in an essay blaming “media” for doing the same hardly makes it look like “rational debate” is the objective.
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barry says:
August 28, 2019 at 7:20 AM
Since when is “likely” part of the scientific method?
Probability estimates have been part of the scientific method for decades, in many different fields, increasing in use as statistical analysis became more sophisticated.
Put “probability estimate” as a complete phrase into google scholar, and set the time period between 1950 and 2000. Thousands of hits.
Put the same complete phrase into google scholar for 2000 to present and you get 17,000 hits.
But how about the word “likely”? Let’s check for the period 1950 to 2000.
1.7 million papers use the word.
But many of those might not be used in the way we’re assessing here. So let’s pick the phrase “very likely,” which is a term of probability, and see how many hits we get.
1950 to 2000 : 400 thousand hits.
2000 to present : 580 thousand hits.
Yep, “likely” as a term of probability has been standard in science since at least the 1950s. Did your education in science cease before this time, perhaps?
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SMS says:
August 26, 2019 at 2:23 PM
I think a correction to your first sentence is needed. It used to be that the media held to the saying “If it bleeds, it leads”. That’s not so true anymore. The media is no longer capable of taking a neutral stance and so the saying should be changed to: “If we can make it bleed, it leads”.
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Dan Pangburn says:
August 26, 2019 at 8:50 PM
Humanity added to natural warming, but from increased water vapor, not increased CO2. NASA/RSS have been measuring water vapor by satellite and reporting it since 1988 at http://www.remss.com/measurements/atmospheric-water-vapor/tpw-1-deg-product. Fig 3 in my blog/analysis (click my name) is a graph of the NASA/RSS numerical data. When normalized by dividing by the mean, the NASA/RSS data are corroborated by NCEP R1 and NCEP R2.
Blinded by a misguided focus on the increase in CO2, climate science has apparently failed to notice that in the period 1988-2002 about 5 water vapor molecules were added for each CO2 molecule. Since 1900, on average, about 3.6 WV molecules were added for each CO2 molecule. The WV increased about twice as fast as calculated from the average global temperature increase (calculation in Section 8).
According to Spectracalc/Hitran, at zero altitude there are about 24 H2O molecules for each CO2 molecule and each H2O molecule is about 5 times as effective at absorb/emit of thermal (LWIR) radiation emitted from earth surface as a CO2 molecule. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECWhyyDUYAA1P89?format=jpg&name=medium
A brief explanation of how CO2, in spite of being a ghg has no significant effect on climate is in the last paragraph of Section 2 in my b/a. A more detailed explanation is provided in http://diyclimateanalysis.blogspot.com as follows: (2nd paragraph after Figure 1): ,,Well above the tropopause, radiation [emitted there] to space is primarily from CO2 molecules. If you ignore the increase in water vapor near the surface vs time (big mistake), WV averages about 10,000 ppmv. The increase since 1900 in absorbers at ground level is then about 10,410/10,295 = ~ 1%. WV above the tropopause is limited to about 32 ppmv because of the low temperature (~ -50 C) while the CO2 fraction remains essentially constant with altitude at 410 ppmv; up from about 295 ppmv in 1900. The increase in emitters to space at high altitude (~> 30 km, 0.012 atm), and accounting for the lower atmospheric pressure, is (410 + 32)/(295 + 32) * 0.012 = ~ 1.6%. This easily explains why CO2 increase does not cause significant warming (except at the poles) and might even cause cooling. The exception at the poles (about 13% of earth area) is because its cold there at ground level so WV is already very low.,,
Consequences:
1. WV increase is self-limiting so no catastrophe from warming.
2. The increasing water vapor is delaying the average global temperature decline expected by many as a result of the quiet sun and eventual decline of net of ocean surface temperature cycles.
3. CO2 increase has increased plant growth (i.e. food) by at least 15%.
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Midas says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:20 PM
Increased CO2
-> increased warming
-> increased evaporation
-> increased water vapor
-> increased warming
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Mike Flynn says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:34 PM
M,
Increased CO2 – reduced radiation reaching thermometers, leading to cooling. H2O is the most important GHG (according to Wikipedia), and the hottest places on Earth are that way because of the lack of the GHG, H2O, in the atmosphere. More sunlight reaches the surface, you see. Basic physics.
Increased evaporation is generally due to heat – the hottest places on Earth have very high evaporation rates – but also due to wind, depending on speed and humidity.
Increased water vapour is due in part to burning hydrocarbons, which generate CO2 and H2O. The more burning, the greater the amount of water vapour.
increased warming has precisely nothing to do with CO2. Nobody has ever managed to make a thermometer hotter by increasing the amount of CO2 between the Sun and the thermometer.
Keep dreaming. Keep drivelling. Throw in a fact or two, rather than a motley collection of silly unsupported assertions, and others might pay attention. On the other hand, why tell people what you have just discovered?
Leave it to me. I do it better. I discovered facts a long time ago.
Cheers.
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Midas says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:46 PM
I only bothered reading the last two lines. I assume you were talking about trolling.
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Mike Flynn says:
August 27, 2019 at 12:10 AM
M,
Obviously, you a free to assume whatever you want. You may assume Gavin Schmidt is a role famous climate scientist. You may assume CO2 makes thermometers hotter.
You may even assume you are not stupid and ignorant. It won’t make any difference to facts.
Assume away – I don’t mind at all.
Cheers,
Midas says:
August 27, 2019 at 12:20 AM
I choose to assume that you are incapable of writing ten comments without repeating each of your stock phrases at least 5 times.
Mike Flynn says:
August 27, 2019 at 12:53 AM
M,
I leave it to others to decide whether your assumption is of value.
Cheers.
Midas says:
August 27, 2019 at 3:28 AM
That’s one! Can you resist four more times? Let’s make it a challenge for you …. Gavin Schmidt is a real scientist …. I see you twitching!
Mike Flynn says:
August 27, 2019 at 3:38 AM
Begone, foolish troll!
Midas says:
August 27, 2019 at 3:47 AM
One for two – you still have some work to go.
Mike Flynn says:
August 27, 2019 at 3:51 AM
Begone, troll!
Dr Myki says:
August 27, 2019 at 5:52 AM
Michael Mann deserves a nobel prize!
Dr Myki says:
August 27, 2019 at 5:54 AM
Global warming is a fact!
Mike Flynn says:
August 27, 2019 at 6:16 AM
DM,
Who says thermometers do not react to increased heat? You cannot name a single person making this claim, can you?
Can you define “global warming” in any rigorous way? No? What has any of your diversionary nonsense got to do with the mythical GHE? Nothing at all?
Carry on making stupid comments. Are you a pseudoscientific GHE true believer, perchance?
Cheers.
bobdroege says:
August 27, 2019 at 9:06 AM
Put the more carbonic acid betwixt the sun and a thermometer makes the thermometer more better hotter, even at night.
Dr Roys Emergency Moderation Team says:
August 29, 2019 at 11:41 AM
Hush, child.
Gordon Robertson says:
August 27, 2019 at 2:20 AM
midas…”Increased CO2
-> increased warming
-> increased evaporation
-> increased water vapor
-> increased warming”
Have you heard of the scientific method? If so, using it, prove any one of your claims above.
Reply
Midas says:
August 27, 2019 at 3:26 AM
GR
Have you heard of the scientific literature? If so, try researching it.
Reply
Mike Flynn says:
August 27, 2019 at 3:40 AM
Begone, deluded troll!
Midas says:
August 27, 2019 at 5:41 AM
Given that I was duplicating your F-buddy’s language, you are also calling him a troll, dear troll.
Mike Flynn says:
August 27, 2019 at 6:05 AM
Begone, witless troll!
Dan Pangburn says:
August 27, 2019 at 11:37 AM
Midas, Scientific literature on climate is largely corrupt. Peer review of climate related papers has substantially morphed into an academic cult approving each others papers which elicit government grants. Biased peer review is de facto censoring. Papers contrary to perceptions of the editors are immediately rejected without review.
the Real Plastic says:
August 27, 2019 at 4:13 PM
Midas – Good luck in inspiring GR to undertake anything outside of his comfort zone, however useful your suggestions might be. It seems evident he has no background in rigorous analysis or actual scientific education. He is an autodidact with just enough intelligence to be dangerous, rather than useful or even interesting. He is certainly not open to researching things that are a “done deal” in his mind. You will notice how he perseverates and repeats himself on topics where he is a self-proclaimed expert. Hence his presence on this site…millions of postings from a prisoner.
Coolist says:
August 27, 2019 at 6:17 PM
Midas: Modeling a hypothesis doesn’t validate it. That’s why catastrophic AGW is pseudoscience. When the hypothesis doesn’t match the data, it’s wrong. There is exactly “zero” data to support catastrophic AGW. It only exists in models and imaginations!
Gordon Robertson says:
August 28, 2019 at 12:19 AM
midas…”GR
Have you heard of the scientific literature? If so, try researching it”.
Scientific literature has to be based on the scientific method. Did they not teach you that in cooking classes?
Gordon Robertson says:
August 28, 2019 at 12:20 AM
plastic…”Good luck in inspiring GR to undertake anything outside of his comfort zone, however useful your suggestions might be. It seems evident he has no background in rigorous analysis or actual scientific education”.
And you’re still a jackass.
Dan Pangburn says:
August 27, 2019 at 11:20 AM
Midas, You have been deceived. CO2 has no effect on average global temperature. Temperature increase of the oceans has caused them to emit CO2. Section 2 of http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com now lists 9 compelling observations demonstrating that CO2 does not control climate.
The initial warming, since the depths of the LIA, coincides with restarting sunspots in 1700 combined with increasing water vapor, mostly from increased irrigation. Warming continued, primarily from slowly increasing water vapor resulting from slowly increasing irrigation. The rate of warming and the rate of irrigation both increased substantially around 1960. The temperature cyclic action (about +/- 1/7 K) which had a 64 year period in the twentieth century is from natural ocean surface temperature cycles.
Reply
Stephen P Anderson says:
August 27, 2019 at 6:36 AM
Dan,
I don’t really see any holes in your hypothesis. It doesn’t seem to collide with laws of science and seems to fit with what we actually see. This is real science.
Reply
JDHuffman says:
August 27, 2019 at 6:59 AM
Dan’s mistake was in his first sentence: “Humanity added to natural warming, but from increased water vapor…”
Water vapor is NOT a thermodynamic heat source. It can NOT raise the temperature of the system. In fact, condensation is one of the processes that moves thermal energy to space, cooling the planet.
Reply
Stephen P Anderson says:
August 27, 2019 at 12:51 PM
But it does have a higher heat capacity than Nitrogen, Oxygen, Argon, carbon dioxide, etc.
Reply
Gordon Robertson says:
August 28, 2019 at 12:23 AM
stephen…”But it [water vapour] does have a higher heat capacity than Nitrogen, Oxygen, Argon, carbon dioxide, etc.”
N2/O2 makes up 99% of the atmosphere, WV makes up about 0.31% of the entire atmosphere. According to the Ideal Gas Law, N2/O2 accounts for nearly 99% of the heat in the atmosphere.
Dan Pangburn says:
August 27, 2019 at 2:54 PM
SPA,
Thanks for challenging my stuff.
It is disturbing the number of people who post here who apparently have very limited engineering/science skill. Some, who apparently lack skill in heat transfer analysis, seem totally incapable of grasping that the GHE (which is produced by ghg) slows the radiation of energy from the planet to the 2.7 K cosmic background resulting in the surface being warmer than it would be without the GHE.
Reply
JDHuffman says:
August 27, 2019 at 3:45 PM
Dan, the “effect” you describe is the atmospheric effect. It’s completely different from the bogus GHE.
Reply
Stephen P Anderson says:
August 27, 2019 at 6:31 PM
The Creator designed this amazing molecule. Water is the universal solvent. It has three different phases within a fairly narrow temperature range. It has a high heat capacity. It is easily transported. It exhibits hydrogen bonding. It absorbs IR across a broad spectrum-it has many rotational, vibrational and translational modes of vibration. God is great!
Gordon Robertson says:
August 28, 2019 at 12:39 AM
stephen…”Water is the universal solvent. It has three different phases within a fairly narrow temperature range. It has a high heat capacity. It is easily transported. It exhibits hydrogen bonding. It absorbs IR across a broad spectrum-it has many rotational, vibrational and translational modes of vibration”.
Yes, and over the entire atmosphere, WV makes up only 0.31% of the gases. Pray tell how it accomplishes anything other than absorbing a tiny fraction of the overall IR emitted by the surface? And of that tiny fraction, how does the heat produced by conversion in the WV molecule raise the temperature of the entire atmosphere?
Stephen P Anderson says:
August 28, 2019 at 10:08 AM
Yes, I’d like to know that too. I think it mostly accounts for surface cooling. It is a big reservoir of thermal energy in the oceans, lakes and rivers.
Gordon Robertson says:
August 28, 2019 at 12:35 AM
dan…”Some, who apparently lack skill in heat transfer analysis, seem totally incapable of grasping that the GHE (which is produced by ghg) slows the radiation of energy from the planet to the 2.7 K cosmic background resulting in the surface being warmer than it would be without the GHE”.
If you study the Stefan-Boltzmann equation, it is not concerned about CO2, it is concerned with the heat of the atmosphere next to the surface. That atmosphere is 99% nitrogen/oxygen and it slows the rate of surface cooling.
Heat transfer by conduction to the atmosphere has to involve mainly N2/O2. If you want to talk heat transfer analysis, then check out what happens to a gas parcel in a relatively constant volume that rises and expands to a much lower pressure. It’s temperature drops, does it not?
As far as radiation is concerned, an expert in the field, R.W.Wood, felt that CO2 could not trap heat as heat is trapped in a greenhouse. In a GH, atoms of N2/O2 are trapped, hence the heat.
The GHE is based on a false assumption that trapped IR can somehow increase the heat content of an enclosure like a GH. Makes no sense, how does trapped IR raise temperature? It would have to be recycled, which is perpetual motion.
Wood gave a better explanation. He discovered that heat increases in a GH due to a lack of convection. There is no lack of convection in the atmosphere, the place is rife with it.
Wood also suggested that N2/O2 absorbs heat at the surface but gases are poor radiators of heat, therefore those gases cannot get rid of the heat easily. They become heat storage mediums like the ocean.
Reply
Dan Pangburn says:
August 28, 2019 at 12:44 PM
GR,
If you had any skill in heat transfer analysis you would know that any graduate Mechanical Engineer especially one like me with an MSME who specialized in heat power is fully aware of the application and limitations of the SB equation.
The word trapped, as often used in climate discussions, is misleading. It is more accurate to say that the energy flux from the surface to the cosmic background is slowed. The slowing results from the summation of relaxation times of the ghgs involved. This is thoroughly explained in Section 4 of http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com
You got two things right:
1. If a gas expands without energy loss, it gets cooler.
2. The GHE has nothing to do with how/why greenhouses work.
If you really want to understand climate, you have some unlearning to do as well as some learning. Start with thermalization which explains how a ghg heats a non-ghg and reverse thermalization which explains how a ghg cools a non ghg.
JDHuffman says:
August 28, 2019 at 2:01 PM
Dan, if you had any skill in heat transfer analysis you would know that the green plate can NOT raise the temperature of the blue plate, beyond its equilibrium temperature.
In engineering it is important to obey the laws of physics.
Dr Roys Emergency Moderation Team says:
August 29, 2019 at 3:29 AM
Oh, talking about the plates, it’s Day 175 today. 175 days of denial from the GHE Defense Team since that old fraud was debunked. God knows how long it’s been since the moon issue was settled in our favor, as well. Some might say 100 years…
bobdroege says:
August 29, 2019 at 11:31 AM
Let’s celebrate 175 days of Junk Science by our local crew.
Well done boys have a cigar and a whiskey.
Dr Roys Emergency Moderation Team says:
August 29, 2019 at 11:35 AM
Hush, child.
bobdroege says:
August 29, 2019 at 4:33 PM
Why the hush child?
I just wanted to complement you guys on a fine job.
Dr Roys Emergency Moderation Team says:
August 29, 2019 at 5:26 PM
#2
Hush, child.
bobdroege says:
August 29, 2019 at 5:48 PM
Well then,
Let’s celebrate with cake and ice cream if you don’t want whiskey and cigars.
Dr Roys Emergency Moderation Team says:
August 30, 2019 at 2:25 AM
#3
Hush, child.
Ulrike P says:
August 26, 2019 at 11:23 PM
No. As pointed out before in this thread, the glacier calving is not a part of the SMB that you see in the graphs.
Reply
Gordon Robertson says:
August 27, 2019 at 2:17 AM
Regarding media myths suggested by Roy, here’s a good one.
The leading killer of all humans in the mosquito. There is one chemical deadly to the mosquito…DDT.
We have banned DDT. Why??? Because some ninny eco-weenie named Rachel Carson published a book in which she claimed DDT was destroying the eggs of birds like raptors. She was wrong, years after DDT was banned the raptor eggs still suffered the same fate.
The media ran with Carson’s wild claims which were scientifically unfounded. We damned millions of people to deaths by malaria and other mosquito borne ailments to save the eggs of some bird.
Reply
captain droll says:
August 27, 2019 at 5:59 AM
What absolute crap! You’ve been reading fake news from the rabid right.
“The reality is that the American ban on DDT did not extend to other nations, although some later enacted their own prohibitions. For that matter, the pesticide was not completely banished in the United States or elsewhere; the E.P.A. declared it acceptable if public health was at risk. And despite a decline in its effectiveness because of overuse, it remains a valued anti-malaria tool in many countries, principally for spraying indoors, where its potency is enhanced and its impact on nature is kept low.
Then, too, the notion that Carson advocated a ban on pest-killing chemicals is a fiction. It was not her contention, she said, that chemical insecticides must never be used.
No responsible person contends that insect-borne disease should be ignored, she wrote in Silent Spring. The trouble, in her view, was that DDT and other chemicals were employed so liberally that the insect enemy developed resistance to them in fairly short order and was thus made actually stronger by our efforts.
Reply
The Real Plastic says:
August 27, 2019 at 4:04 PM
Careful! Calling Gordon out on his myopic, obsessive views just provokes another half dozen diatribes from him. Are you prepared to follow the rants and justifications that are about to commence because you challenged him about a 60 year old book he never even read?
Reply
the Real Plastic says:
August 27, 2019 at 4:18 PM
So you get all uptight about malaria (which prominently affects African countries) but discredit HIV (which prominently affects African countries). Pretending to give a damn! Whatever serves your purpose, GR, hey wot?
Reply
Gordon Robertson says:
August 28, 2019 at 12:53 AM
plastic…”So you get all uptight about malaria (which prominently affects African countries) but discredit HIV (which prominently affects African countries). Pretending to give a damn! Whatever serves your purpose, GR, hey wot?”
Not another jackass who is hiding behind a new nym.
Malaria kills many, many more people than AIDS, a mysterious collection of opportunistic infections that no one can explain. What they call AIDS in Africa was once known as Slim’s Disease…cause known…malnutrition, polluted drinking water, and parasitic infections.
The scientist who discovered HIV, Luc Montagnier, came out in the past couple of years and revealed that HIV will harm no one with a healthy immune system. Guess what Africans suffer from….weak immune systems from…malnutrition, polluted drinking water, and parasitic infections from, guess what…mosquitoes and their ilk.
The stats back Montagnier. Here in Canada, where we generally have healthy immune systems, AIDS is relatively unknown. The death rate from AIDS in Canada is a fraction of 1%. Same in the US, same in Europe.
Is it beyond your limited brain, as an uber-jackass, to think this out for yourself? Africans suffer from malnutrition, polluted drinking water, and parasitic infections. What causes AIDS…a faulty immune system. What causes a faulty immune system…malnutrition, polluted drinking water, and parasitic infections.
Montagnier calls it oxidative stress. The solution is antioxidants, food, clean drinking water (emphasized by Montagnier), and a means of controlling parasitic infections.
What does the Bill Gates Foundation and the World Health Organization suggest? Potent antivirals that are known to defeat the immune system, cause liver, kidney and blood infections, and produce AIDS.
In Africa, it was once called Slim’s Disease, till the idiots in control lumped Slim’s Disease under the AIDS umbrella.
Reply
the Real Plastic says:
August 28, 2019 at 10:03 AM
Yeah, I didn’t ask you to spill the same malarkey that you’ve held dear and spouted off incessantly over the ages. You’ve purged at length here, we can recite it by heart GR. But I know you can’t help yourself.
You cling so tightly to your illusions, which is why I have poked at you somewhat. And your information (such as it is) is hopelessly out of date.
I feel sorry for you. It’s like your helpless to open your mind to proper scientific inquiry, as you are so invested in the underdog, or having “specialized knowledge” that everyone else is too stupid to see (note how everyone outside of your narrow purview is an “idiot” or “jackass”).
Reply
barry says:
August 28, 2019 at 5:33 PM
Luc Montaignier published a paper in 2002 where he writes:
“Over the past 20 years, the scientific and legal controversies between our team and Gallo’s group have faded. We are left with the salient fact that HIV was identified and shown to be the cause of AIDS less than 2 1/2 years after this disease was first identified.”
http://www.aidscience.org/science/298(5599)1727.html
He co-authored another paper in the same year, which begins:
“With close to 70 million people already infected with HIV and more than 20 million dead, AIDS is one of the greatest pandemics in medical history…
One of the main objectives of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS is to make anti-HIV drugs accessible to all of the developing world. The problem of cost can be partly solved by reducing drug prices…”
http://fire.biol.wwu.edu/trent/trent/prospectsforfuture.pdf
Gordon’s views are as trippy as ever. The co-discoverer of HIV acknowledges that it causes AIDS, and calls for treatment of HIV to prevent AIDS.
Reply
the Real Plastic says:
August 29, 2019 at 12:30 PM
Barry, it is a losing battle with GR. “Trippy” is a very kind assessment. He does not answer any direct questions posed of him, but will rant at length on his hobbyhorse subjects, despite being crudely uninformed. Ignorant of his own ignorance: if it wasn’t so sad, it must be a nice way to live.
the Real Plastic says:
August 27, 2019 at 4:46 PM
“Eco Weenie”? Oh come off it. Carson was an engaged and well-informed marine biologist and ecologist. But it seems you are not actually familiar with her many works…
Sorry, what are your own credentials again, so we can assess your commentary on scientists you happen to dislike or disagree with?
Reply
Gordon Robertson says:
August 28, 2019 at 1:08 AM
plastic…mickey…”Carson was an engaged and well-informed marine biologist and ecologist”.
Carson was a propagandist who did the world a great disservice. Her ilk today are the climate alarmists.
Reply
the Real Plastic says:
August 28, 2019 at 10:38 AM
Yes, having “a point of view” IS technically propoganda, if you want to be like that. Scientists often can’t help themselves. They develop outlooks and points of view that follow from research and experience. It is literally their job to present such information.
The reason why I asked about your credentials was not for a snobby reason, not implying that only people in certain fields or with a certain background are able to make assessments. But you’re a strange combination…superficially well-spoken, but saying some REALLY weird, out of date things. It implies you are no longer current in whatever it is you claim knowledge of and expound upon. Your ideas are frozen in amber. Yet you attempt to present as as some sort of informed authority. It’s …interesting.
Reply
barry says:
August 29, 2019 at 6:05 PM
Carson is the go-to gal for conservatives who hate environmentalism. DDT sometimes gets dragged out when discussing any environmental issue. Carson didn’t propose a complete ban on DDT, and recognized the need to combat disease, although the useful idiots would have you believe that was what she promoted. She is loved to be hated by anti-government/anti-environmentalist folk because her book was a seminal work in forming the environmental movement (and the American EPA, for that matter). Gordon is just regurgitating mindlessly.
Reply
SMS says:
August 27, 2019 at 9:51 AM
I’m old enough to remember the campaign against DDT. The campaign was ruthless and determined in it’s effort to eliminate DDT usage. And it worked. Outright lies were used. DDT was banned completely. Where did the idea come from to eliminate DDT? Rachael Carsons book. The lies used to eliminate DDT were extensions of Rachael Carsons book.
Years later, when deaths due to malaria were growing, DDT got a reprieve. But who was going to produce DDT? The campaign to eliminate its usage had been very effective. No company wanted to produce DDT because of how the public viewed the product.
So people died.
Reply
Dr Myki says:
August 27, 2019 at 2:49 PM
Absolute crap.
Reply
Chic Bowdrie says:
August 27, 2019 at 5:08 PM
Actually, SMS gives a fairly good summary in only three paragraphs. What do you know that’s wrong or missing?
Reply
bobdroege says:
August 27, 2019 at 7:40 PM
Resistance to DDT in the anopheles mosquito.
DDT was never banned completely, only agricultural use was banned.
Reply
SMS says:
August 27, 2019 at 7:57 PM
From Wikipedia:
“By 1991 total bans, including for disease control, were in place in at least 26 countries; for example Cuba in 1970, the US in the 1980s, Singapore in 1984, Chile in 1985 and the Republic of Korea in 1986.[54] “
bobdroege says:
August 27, 2019 at 8:14 PM
So not a complete ban, just banned in a few countries, then.
Roughly 13% of countries banned DDT.
I think the eagle, peregrine falcons, and ospreys are happy.
I would rather have a few birds around than an ineffectual chemical that doesn’t work that well on malaria.
sms says:
August 27, 2019 at 9:27 PM
Those would be the countries that have the capability to produce DDT. People died because they did not have access to DDT. That is well known.
bobdroege says:
August 29, 2019 at 7:55 AM
What about the adverse health effects of DDT?
“breast & other cancers
male infertility
miscarriages & low birth weight
developmental delay
nervous system & liver damage”
from https://www.panna.org/resources/ddt-story
Mosquitoes rapidly develop resistance to DDT anyway.
It’s not the life saving silver bullet you are portraying it as.
SMS says:
August 29, 2019 at 8:36 AM
Issues that are non-issues. As I said before, the campaign against DDT was ruthless. Lies upon lies were used to demonize this chemical in an effort to stop its usage. Money flowed to those who could dispel any good found in DDT. Issues from cancer to egg shell thinning based on the writings of Rachael Carson have been found to be untrue. I found this: http://junkscience.com/100-things-you-should-know-about-ddt/ It does a pretty good job of telling the history and the current truths based on the current science.
bobdroege says:
August 29, 2019 at 10:57 AM
The effect on birds was noted before Carlson’s book.
https://web.stanford.edu/group/stanfordbirds/text/essays/DDT_and_Birds.html
If DDT was only used to control mosquitoes you guys might have a point, but its use was so widespread every human in the US had been exposed to it. They put that shit on everything.
It is nice to see that the bald eagle has recovered and the ban on the use of DDT in the US was the major reason for that.
And Milloy is junk
SMS says:
August 29, 2019 at 8:15 PM
Your site lacks references to claims, unlike junkscience article. Like I’ve been saying, there were so many lies during the campaign to demonize DDT that many of them persist today. The subsequent studies do not bear out claims made by the Stanford site.
Gordon Robertson says:
August 28, 2019 at 1:06 AM
sms…hope this link works for you.
https://web.archive.org/web/20020124084336/http://www.altgreen.com.au/Chemicals/ddt.html
Reply
David Appell says:
August 27, 2019 at 8:27 PM
Roy wrote:
The Earth has warmed a little since the 1950s, a date chosen because before that humans had not produced enough CO2 to really matter.
Roy, why do you keep writing this when it’s untrue. I’ve pointed this out many times.
In 1950 atmospheric CO2 was 311 ppmv. It’s forcing was 24% of today’s value, relative to 1850.
Reply
gallopingcamel says:
August 28, 2019 at 3:29 AM
CO2 in the atmosphere is not causing temperatures or anything else related to climate such as the incidence of hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, floods etc. to change.
How do I know that? Causation requires correlation which does not exist except for the false correlation between [CO2] and temperature from 1850 to 1998.
Ice core data shows that temperature leads [CO2]. That poses a causality problem. It’s like having a body hit the floor and then two minutes later, the suspect fires his gun. It’s hard to call the suspect a murderer when his gunshot occurred after the victim died. Even in “Climate Scienceâ€�, cause precedes effect.
The theory that underlies the IPCC’s models fails because it is based on only two factors, namely radiation and the concentration of trace gases.
Theories that include the effect of bulk gases, convection, conduction and oceans are much better at explaining reality. For example, the Robinson & Catling model is stunningly accurate for the seven bodies in our solar system that have significant atmospheres.
Currently that theory is being used to model the temperature on Proxima b:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1608.08620.pdf
Reply
David Appell says:
August 27, 2019 at 8:33 PM
Roy wrote:
The Earth has warmed a little since the 1950s
N.O.A.A.’s surface data shows the GMST has increased by about 0.95 C since 1950. Other data sets show the same, +/- 0.1 C.
That’s 1/5th of an inverse ice age. That’s “a little?”
And the rate of change of ~ 0.2 C/decade is not slowing down. That’s what has people worried, more so than anything today.
Reply
Gordon Robertson says:
August 28, 2019 at 12:59 AM
DA…”N.O.A.A.s surface data shows the GMST has increased by about 0.95 C ”
NOAA fudges data and lies about record temperatures. They cannot be trusted.
Reply
bill hunter says:
August 28, 2019 at 11:12 PM
Yep they had to adjust that decade down and adjust recent decades up by extending the record to the arctic and ignoring that in 1950 the ice at the pole was thin then too bringing up submarines through the ice. They claim they got smarter but the scientists back in the 80’s didn’t include the arctic because they determined the data was way to thin.
Reply
JDHuffman says:
August 28, 2019 at 9:20 AM
DA claims: “That’s what has people worried, more so than anything today.”
DA, if you didn’t have some imaginary fears to worry about, you wouldn’t have anything to do.
Reply
barry says:
August 28, 2019 at 5:45 PM
JMA, Berkeley Earth, Had.CRU and reanalysis products from Europe and elsewhere generally support the warming rate of NOAA, GISS etc, for the period 1950 to present. Had.CRU has the lowest trend, with 0.84C of warming since 1950, but the uncertainty overlaps with all the others.
Nearly a degree of warming since 1950 is one 6th of the way to an ice age/interglacial, which normally takes thousands of years.
Reply
JDHuffman says:
August 28, 2019 at 7:21 PM
barry believes: “…one 6th of the way to an ice age/interglacial, which normally takes thousands of years.”
Now barry, you don’t know the actual temperatures from the “last” interglacial anymore than you know how many “thousands” of years were involved. You’re just relying on piles and piles of pseudoscience. That’s NOT science, it’s just a belief system.
Which means you’re just practicing a false religion.
Reply
Gordon Robertson says:
August 29, 2019 at 12:52 AM
barry…”JMA, Berkeley Earth, Had.CRU and reanalysis products from Europe and elsewhere generally support the warming rate of NOAA, GISS etc,”
Duh!!! They all get their fudged data from NOAA then fudge it more. Both Had-cruit and GISS get their data from NOAA.
Reply
barry says:
August 29, 2019 at 7:54 AM
No, Gordon, the reanalysis products are derived from multiple sources, and not just temperature data.
Berkeley Earth has data from 39,000 weather stations. NOAA has 7,280 (GHCN monthly). Removing NOAA data from Berkeley Earth does not change the result.
Had.CRU is mainly made of weather station data it gathered itself from various countries, and WMO climate data.
JMA uses GHCN monthly up to 2000, and thereafter constructs its own data set from CLIMAT data received at JMA (CLIMAT) is the data sent by weather stations to various repositories.
As usual, you just talk BS. The facts are too various to support your broad criticisms, so you shut your mind to the facts.
Reply
Stephen P Anderson says:
August 27, 2019 at 10:43 PM
Roy, why do you keep writing this when its untrue. Ive pointed this out many times
You’re right. Don’t know why he keeps saying it either. CO2 has virtually no effect on atmospheric temperature. We need much more than 311ppm of atmospheric CO2 to help plants grow. And yes the temperature increase from the little ice age has appeared to have paused for now but let’s hope temperature continues higher because CO2 follows temperature and not the other way around.
Reply
Gordon Robertson says:
August 28, 2019 at 12:57 AM
reposting here…another super-myth perpetuated by the media.
plastic…”So you get all uptight about malaria (which prominently affects African countries) but discredit HIV (which prominently affects African countries). Pretending to give a damn! Whatever serves your purpose, GR, hey wot?”
Not another jackass who is hiding behind a new nym.
Malaria kills many, many more people than AIDS, a mysterious collection of opportunistic infections that no one can explain. What they call AIDS in Africa was once known as Slim’s Disease…cause known…malnutrition, polluted drinking water, and parasitic infections.
The scientist who discovered HIV, Luc Montagnier, came out in the past couple of years and revealed that HIV will harm no one with a healthy immune system. Guess what Africans suffer from….weak immune systems from…malnutrition, polluted drinking water, and parasitic infections from, guess what…mosquitoes and their ilk.
The stats back Montagnier. Here in Canada, where we generally have healthy immune systems, AIDS is relatively unknown. The death rate from AIDS in Canada is a fraction of 1%. Same in the US, same in Europe.
Is it beyond your limited brain, as an uber-jackass, to think this out for yourself? Africans suffer from malnutrition, polluted drinking water, and parasitic infections. What causes AIDS…a faulty immune system. What causes a faulty immune system…malnutrition, polluted drinking water, and parasitic infections.
Montagnier calls it oxidative stress. The solution is antioxidants, food, clean drinking water (emphasized by Montagnier), and a means of controlling parasitic infections.
What does the Bill Gates Foundation and the World Health Organization suggest? Potent antivirals that are known to defeat the immune system, cause liver, kidney and blood infections, and produce AIDS (admitted by the drug companies that produce the antivirals…they call it IRS because it is a drug-induced form of AIDS and they don’t want to increase the death rate for the other AIDS).
In Africa, it was once called Slim’s Disease, till the idiots in control lumped Slim’s Disease under the AIDS umbrella.
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the Real Plastic says:
August 28, 2019 at 10:10 AM
I don’t understand why you feel you’re so important that you must re-post windy misinformation twice. I think it’s typical of how clods want to have the last word – to feel safe.
My answer is above in the original thread.
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Gordon Robertson says:
August 29, 2019 at 12:50 AM
plastic…”I dont understand why you feel youre so important that you must re-post windy misinformation twice”.
I don’t understand why you have to post under a different nym. You obviously have a long-running dislike of my posts suggesting you have been around here for a while.
I am guessing you might be ‘stupid’, who changed his nym to include JD’s name, Huffman, and your sore because me, JD, and dremt have regularly kicked your butt about science.
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Gordon Robertson says:
August 28, 2019 at 1:17 AM
re Rachel Carson critiques…
https://www.safechemicalpolicy.org/critiques-of-silent-spring/
https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/the-truth-about-ddt-and-silent-spring
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barry says:
August 29, 2019 at 5:42 PM
First link is to a libertarian policy think tank. Second link is to a “science” journal created by an advocacy group.
Unbiased reviews, particularly those rooted in science, and not that filtered by a political lens, would be more persuasive.
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Gordon Robertson says:
August 29, 2019 at 1:11 AM
DA…”In 1950 atmospheric CO2 was 311 ppmv. Its forcing was 24% of todays value, relative to 1850″.
It’s ironic that the IPCC selected 1850 as the beginning of the warming, the year claimed as the end of the Little Ice Age.
When Mann et al produced their hockey stick nonsense, the IPCC were all over the notion that the 1990s represented unprecedented warming over the previous 1000 years.
After McIntyre and McKitrick exposed Mann’s hockey stick as crap statistical methods, and NAS essentially agreed, the IPCC rushed out a newer version of the hockey stick that had so many error bars that the graph was referred to as the spaghetti graph. It re-introduced the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age that Mann et al had suppressed to get a nice straight shaft on the stick.
The IPCC also changed Mann’s claim of 1000 AD as the beginning point of the ‘unprecedented’ warming to 1850. But why 1850 when the focus of the AGW range is the pre-Industrial Era?
It appears the IPCC are acknowledging the Little Ice Age ending data of 1850 yet ignoring the import of the LIA. It had been much cooler over the entire planet for the previous 400 years of the LIA, yet the IPCC stuck with their anthropogenic cause for the warming.
Seems the IPCC have painted themselves into a corner.
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barry says:
August 29, 2019 at 10:38 AM
Propagandistic claptrap. The truth is far more interesting and informative than this potted BS.
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barry says:
August 29, 2019 at 8:26 PM
But why 1850…?
Because that was the the first year in longest of the global instrumental records (Had.CRU). IPCC does not say warming began from 1850. That’s your ignorance conflating two different ideas. Again. How can you remain so dense after so many years talking about this stuff?
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Kip Hansen says:
September 1, 2019 at 11:46 AM
Dr. Spencer ==> A marvelous piece — really terrific. Perhaps it can be leaked to a friendly press outlet with a wide readership.
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Jack says:
September 2, 2019 at 5:37 PM
I would have thought that Dr Spencer would know that the Greenland SMB does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
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Jack says:
September 2, 2019 at 5:40 PM
Well – he did know it and sloughed it off.
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DJC says:
September 3, 2019 at 7:46 AM
Lukewarmers like Roy Spencer score “own goals” by acknowledging implicitly that the “science” of climatology claiming carbon dioxide, water vapor etc warm us is correct. The AGW “science” implies rain forests should be 50 to 80 degrees hotter than deserts because these alarmists claim water vapor does most of their “33 degrees” of warming at average concentrations just over 1%. So how much warming should it do where it is 4% ? Lukes can’t say it just doesn’t do as much because then their 33 degrees would not be achieved in the first place. Water vapor is about 98% of all “greenhouse” gases that are supposedly causing about twice as much heat from the cold atmosphere to the already-warmer surface as the Sun is doing with its direct radiation that reaches the surface. Why do some PSI authors implicitly endorse such junk science? Why does John O’Sullivan even publish it? Water vapor COOLS us by several degrees. It is gravity which makes the base of the troposphere warmer, not back radiation. Water vapor reduces that gradient and so the temperature does not rise as much between the effective radiating altitude and the surface. Studies confirm this: click and watch for 15 minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BEN3iJzlrI&feature=youtu.be
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Jim Hanks says:
September 4, 2019 at 5:19 PM
What do you think about the recent studies done by teams in Finland and Japan regarding human contribution to global warming?
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Randy Jacks says:
September 4, 2019 at 9:21 PM
I have enjoyed reading your blog tonight. You put into words what is obvious in my mind. Climate will always be changing and people will always be trying to make people believe whatever brings the author more attention so he can sell more of whatever snake oil he is selling.
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Nate says:
September 8, 2019 at 9:10 AM
“Another issue that you should try to find support for is the IPCC assump.tion that natural sources have remained steady.”
Not steady, as we see, the source/sink rate changes on ENSO time scales.
“As I demonstrated with the modified Spencer model, the data is equally well fit by an expanding natural source.”
But if Berry type models are wrong about the anthro sources being too small to account for the rise we observe, then there is no NEED to seek an additional source. An unobserved, large, unbalanced natural source, that has no precedent (in recent millenia) is simply not needed.
Earlier I mentioned the 30% ab*sor*ption in the ocean has been modeled and observed.
Here are some data:
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/LDEO+Surface+Ocean+CO2+Climatology
As you can see, measurements show, on average, that the ocean has been a NET SINK for carbon at the rate of 1.6 B tons carbon per year, circa 2000, when emissions were 6.5 B tons.
I suppose that the ocean could be a source in one part and a sink in another part.
If you look at the map at left, the largest source is the Tropical Pacific, @ about 0.65 BT/year and the rest of the ocean has been a sink.
There is no evidence for any (non-seasonal) large, (20x = 130 BT) carbon/year SOURCE or SINK in the ocean (the largest carbon reservoir).
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Chic Bowdrie says:
September 8, 2019 at 3:58 PM
If you look on page 471 of IPCC AR5 WGI Chapter 6(https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter06_FINAL.pdf), you will find a graph estimating the sources and sinks of land (about 120 PgC) and sea about (78 PgC). Let me guess. You are interpreting the Takahashi data to mean that 200.00 GtC of total sources of C minus 200.13 of total sinks of C gives a net maximum sink of 130 BtC? Therefore there is no sources of the magnitude that the IPCC claims? I don’t interpret the Takahashi data that way. I do confirm your suspicion that the ocean could be a source in one part and a sink in another part. I would go farther to say that some places are a source in one season and a sink in another.
Please refresh my memory on the modeled and observed 30% absorp.tion in the ocean. I don’t know what you are getting at.
A puzzle for you. How does a thirsty person in the desert know there is no water in the oasis over the next sand dune?
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Nate says:
September 8, 2019 at 5:44 PM
‘Let me guess. You are interpreting the Takahashi data to mean that 200.00 GtC of total sources of C minus 200.13 of total sinks of C gives a net maximum sink of 130 BtC?
No. No need to guess. Just READ my post.
“There is no evidence for any (non-seasonal) large, (20x = 130 BT) carbon/year SOURCE or SINK in the ocean (the largest carbon reservoir).
The PMEL map shows the flux over a year, and THEY state it sums to 1.6 BT carbon.
I also looked at the map and calculated the tropical pacific part.
What you and IPCC are talking about must be seasonal, certainly averages to ~ 0 over a year.
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Chic Bowdrie says:
September 9, 2019 at 7:09 AM
Yes, that’s correct. It is the large different between the combined sources of CO2 from all over the globe minus the combined sinked CO2 from all over the globe that results in a relatively small net locally and globally.
So is it yet clear to you how a relatively small (5%) contribution from humans can at most result in 5% of the CO2 in the air? Otherwise you must still think nature has a way of sorting out which CO2 molecules are natural and which are human. Then she makes the human CO2 molecules wait in line. Not possible.
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Chic Bowdrie says:
September 8, 2019 at 1:52 PM
Con’t from http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/08/how-the-media-help-to-destroy-rational-climate-debate/#comment-385373
Nate, the version you are referencing comes from his blog pre-print published online in April, 2018 for public review before being submitted to peer review prior ti publication. The open-access copy of the final version is here: http://www.sciencepublishinggroup.com/journal/paperinfo?journalid=298&doi=10.11648/j.ijaos.20190301.13
Apparently someone(s) had the same objection as you and that paragraph was eliminated in the published version. You can still make the same objection, but why? It is an impossible scenario which is probably what prior reviewers have pointed out. Sorry I wasn’t able to read your mind to know which version of the paper you’ve been reading.
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Chic Bowdrie says:
September 8, 2019 at 2:54 PM
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/08/how-the-media-help-to-destroy-rational-climate-debate/#comment-385376
He is claiming that natural sink flux that we currently have is driven by partial pressure of Co2 in atmosphere.”
Yes, he does. Do you object to this? If so, what alternative mechanism do you claim?
“He makes analogies, eg to a tire with a leak, the leak rate is proportional to pressure.”
Yes and to a reasonable approximation, that is correct. Atmospheric pressure is negligible compared to tire pressure.
“This leads him to his conclusions that the anthro CO2 can only give 5% of the rise and 95% must be natural.”
5% of the total CO2 in the air, not a percentage of the rise. You continue to get this wrong.
“But this is wrong because most of the natural sink fluxes are naturally balanced by built-in DRIVEN sources, and NOT primarily driven by partial pressure.
An assertion without any explanation. But I’m anxious to be informed. I can explain the reverse drive, but to the extent that it “balances,” nature treats human emissions as well as its own. How could it be otherwise?
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Nate says:
September 8, 2019 at 5:50 PM
‘He is claiming that natural sink flux that we currently have is driven by partial pressure of Co2 in atmosphere.
Yes, he does. Do you object to this? If so, what alternative mechanism do you claim?”
Yes I object, and so do you:
“I think the main weakness in the model is the assump.tion that the rate of absorp.tion into the biomass or oceans is proportional to atm CO2 concentration. It neglects a return process. I am working on a model that doesnt.
You are not making much sense.
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Chic Bowdrie says:
September 8, 2019 at 8:50 PM
The sense I’m making is in coming up with an alternative model to see if it shows Berry’s model wrong. OTOH, you have no model to back up your empty assertions.
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Nate says:
September 8, 2019 at 6:56 PM
‘You can still make the same objection, but why?’
The paragraph was a conclusion from his model. So the model, if he still makes the assumption of 0 external pressure, is still wrong.
Clearly the overall pressure difference between atm and ocean is quite small and near equilibrium. Yet we have massive natural fluxes between the two.
BECAUSE the ocean has big temperature variation, 4 C changes solubility by ~ 10%, or 40 ppm, comparable to the natural flux amplitude.
This is ongoing in the background, and averages to near 0. So why is its amplitude relevant at all to whether a continuously NET positive anthro flux can increase atm concentration?
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Chic Bowdrie says:
September 8, 2019 at 9:25 PM
“So the model, if he still makes the assumption of 0 external pressure, is still wrong.”
He may now assume insignificant “back pressure” (for lack of a better expression). That doesn’t mean the model is wrong. You would have to show in your nonexistent model that the back pressure does make his model wrong.
Massive fluxes are a result of the size of the planet. You don’t know how far from equilibrium the pressure differences are. You only assume that because it fits your narrative. That’s another name for assertions without evidence.
A small change in the total dissolved C in the ocean causes a large change in the concentration of CO2 in air. I’ll assume your numbers resulting in the observed flux amplitudes are correct. They are irrelevant, because we aren’t discussing the magnitudes of the yearly fluctuations. We are discussing the 70 year increase in CO2 and the proportion due to human emissions.
“This is ongoing in the background, and averages to near 0. So why is its amplitude relevant at all to whether a continuously NET positive anthro flux can increase atm concentration?”
Like I explained, it isn’t.
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Nate says:
September 9, 2019 at 6:24 AM
” OTOH, you have no model to back up your empty assertions.’
That is not my job. That is the job of carbon cycle experts, who have done it. I have outlined the main features way up above.
The point of this entire discussion was to show that Berry’s model is not valid, and both of us ‘seem’ to agree now.
The ‘zero back pressure’ is completely illogical. That total CO2 pressure is the driving force for natural fluxes is not logical.
The second main point of this discussion, IMO, was that Berry’s model, being invalid, does nothing to support the notion that anthro emissions cannot be responsible for more than a small fraction, 5%, of the total atm concentration.
‘A small change in the total dissolved C in the ocean causes a large change in the concentration of CO2 in air. Ill assume your numbers resulting in the observed flux amplitudes are correct. They are irrelevant, because we arent discussing the magnitudes of the yearly fluctuations. We are discussing the 70 year increase in CO2 and the proportion due to human emissions.
This is ongoing in the background, and averages to near 0. So why is its amplitude relevant at all to whether a continuously NET positive anthro flux can increase atm concentration?
‘Like I explained, it isnt.’
Well, then it seems we agree that the amplitude of the natural fluxes is irrelevant to the “the 70 year increase in CO2 and the proportion due to human emissions.”
But that does not agree with your claim throughout this discussion, that the magnitude of the natural fluxes are VERY RELEVANT, EG:
“Ed Berry, Hermann Harde, Murray Salby, and others have published papers claiming the human contribution couldnt be much more than its share of all the sources of CO2. The CO2 from natural sources is about 20 times that of the human emissions. Therefore the fraction of CO2 in the atmosphere due to humans cant be more than 5%.”
so please explain your CURRENT position.
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Chic Bowdrie says:
September 9, 2019 at 7:58 AM
Why do I torture myself by continuing to go around in circles with you? Because the point of Berry’s article is crucial to interpreting just how significant human emissions contribute to the rise in CO2 that supposedly raises global temperature.
“That is not my job.”
If you and the IPCC had a “done it” model that definitively showed Berry wrong, we wouldn’t be discussing this now. If your outline was convincing I would have acknowledged it. Instead I’ve patiently answered your objections. It’s up to you now to illustrate why Berry is wrong. If you don’t understand how the carbon cycle experts refute Berry, then lets examine it piece by piece. Otherwise we are spitting into the wind.
“The point of this entire discussion was to show that Berrys model is not valid, and both of us seem to agree now.”
I wrote that his model has what I perceive as a weakness. I may be wrong. Until I have a model that convinces me otherwise, I accept his model as valid.
I can’t make you understand how rate processes establish an equilibrium. Get a chemistry text and study it.
“Well, then it seems we agree that the amplitude of the natural fluxes is irrelevant to the ‘the 70 year increase in CO2 and the proportion due to human emissions.'”
No, we still don’t agree and it is crucial that you get this. I misspoke when I said, “I’ll assume your numbers resulting in the observed flux amplitudes are correct.” The NET flux amplitudes are irrelevant. It’s the full magnitude of the natural fluxes that are not only relevant, but essential to my whole argument.
You have quoted my current position correctly and it hasn’t changed since the beginning of this conversation.
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Nate says:
September 9, 2019 at 11:25 AM
‘I cant make you understand how rate processes establish an equilibrium. Get a chemistry text and study it.’
Thanks, not an issue. Complex dynamical system with multiple reservoirs and rate constants.
I can’t make you understand that you need to investigate what it is about the ocean carbon cycle that you are missing.
‘I wrote that his model has what I perceive as a weakness. I may be wrong. Until I have a model that convinces me otherwise, I accept his model as valid.’
It seems you simply prefer contrarian models, whether they are objectively better or not.
I don’t know why you would accept a model that, even you agree, has such a glaring flaw in it. But so readily reject, without really even considering in detail, the mainstream sciences model.
There is lots of data out there, PMEL is some of it, that isnt able to find any evidence of your large, unbalanced, natural flux source.
There is lots of data on ocean carbon content, showing that its partial pressure is close to and tracking the atmospheric pressure.
The ocean is a NET sink for carbon in an amount ~ 30 % of the anthro emissions.
Nate says:
September 9, 2019 at 11:46 AM
In the Berry model, there is large natural source emitting into the atmosphere ~ 100 ppm/year, and there is a large sink draining the CO2 to somewhere with effectively zero pressure.
He asserts that this natural flux of 100 ppm/y will be maintained in equilibrium by a pressure difference of 400 ppm, between the atm and some nonexistent place with 0 pressure.
Therefore, he can claim that an anthro flux of 4.5 ppm/y can be maintained by an 18 ppm atmospheric pressure difference at most.
This is obviously wrong, way oversimplified, and not relevant to Earth.
So, if this model is wrong, why do you still think the relationship: 18/4.5 = 400/100 should still is valid?
A rough sketch of the real situation has several carbon reservoirs, atmosphere, ocean ML, and land/biosphere that are nearly at the same CO2 partial pressure, but still have natural flows between them of 100 ppm/year driven by solar-powered pumps.
An imbalance of pressure of 120 ppm, between these reservoirs and the deep ocean can be maintained and even increased by a small external flux, because the leak rate to the deep ocean is SMALL, apparently < 4 ppm/y.
Chic Bowdrie says:
September 9, 2019 at 1:57 PM
Please don’t use your ignorance of the carbon cycle to bash mine. Apparently my chemistry trumps yours. Please correct me if I’m wrong. Then read this: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/05/18/co2-and-ocean-chemistry/
Where is this mainstream model that you refer to and why is it only now being brought up in this conversation? Is it an alternative to the ones Berry cites in his article?
If PMEL is some alternative data to the IPCC’s, where is it and why are you only now referencing it?
The ocean is a NET sink for carbon regardless of the source. Your 30% is yours and the IPCC’s imaginary figure. No undisputed data to support it.
You don’t understand the actual pressure/concentration equilibria so why are you torturing Berry’s model by spouting your “18 ppm atmospheric pressure difference” gobbledygook? It just shows you are grasping at straws.
“So, if this model is wrong, why do you still think the relationship: 18/4.5 = 400/100 should still is valid?”
Your premise is wrong, your equation is wrong. Then you start bringing up solar-powered pumps and small deep ocean links with no supporting evidence. Total obfuscation and very frustrating to me.
Nate says:
September 9, 2019 at 5:59 PM
“If PMEL is some alternative data to the IPCCs, where is it and why are you only now referencing it?”
Here: https://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/08/how-the-media-help-to-destroy-rational-climate-debate/#comment-385418
And we discussed it several times already!
You seem to be losing it!
“The ocean is a NET sink for carbon regardless of the source. Your 30% is yours and the IPCCs imaginary figure. No undisputed data to support it.’
No, as we discussed, the PMEL data that you have forgotten
shows that the ocean is a NET SINK and the amount that it sinks annually is ~ 30% of the anthro emission, CONSISTENT with the IPCC models.
Not theory. Not a model. DATA. You think its wrong, prove it!
“You dont understand the actual pressure/concentration equilibria so why are you torturing Berrys model by spouting your 18 ppm atmospheric pressure difference gobbledygook?
18 ppm atmospheric pressure difference gobbledygook? ‘
Not my gobbledegook, Berry’s. This is HIS argument.
And you already agreed that his 0 pressure sink is bogus. Now you are backtracking?
So, if this model is wrong, why do you still think the relationship: 18/4.5 = 400/100 should still is valid?
“Your premise is wrong, your equation is wrong. Then you start bringing up solar-powered pumps and small deep ocean links with no supporting evidence. Total obfuscation and very frustrating to me.”
More Ad homs and baseless assertions. No countering facts or logic.
You tried this tactic before, with what you called my ‘convoluted’ argument, that you could not even begin to rebut.
“He is claiming that natural sink flux that we currently have is driven by partial pressure of Co2 in atmosphere.
He makes analogies, eg to a tire with a leak, the leak rate is proportional to pressure.
But this is wrong”
Then you somehow adopted the very point I made!
“I think the main weakness in the model is the assump.tion that the rate of absorp.tion into the biomass or oceans is proportional to atm CO2 concentration. It neglects a return process. I am working on a model that doesnt.”
Just stop with the ‘you dont understand chemistry rate constants yada yada’ bullshit, that gets you out of a proper rebuttal.
As I tried to explain, we have a ‘Complex dynamical system with multiple reservoirs and rate constants.’
Yet you insist that it’s much simpler.
Chic Bowdrie says:
September 9, 2019 at 11:08 PM
“No, as we discussed, the PMEL data that you have forgotten
shows that the ocean is a NET SINK and the amount that it sinks annually is ~ 30% of the anthro emission, CONSISTENT with the IPCC models.”
Based on Berry’s model, I could just as easily claim the amount the oceans sink annually is 4.5% of the anthro emission and 95.5% of natural emissions. To what IPCC models are you referring? Are they different than the ones Berry cites?
“Not my gobbledegook, Berrys. This is HIS argument.”
Nowhere does Berry refer to 18 ppm as a pressure difference. The unit ppm is a concentration, not a partial pressure difference. 18 ppm is the difference between the 410 ppm total CO2 in air and the 392 attributable to natural emissions according to his model. You either don’t understand the model or you are purposefully playing games hoping to exhaust my patience. Stop with the obfuscations, please.
“And you already agreed that his 0 pressure sink is bogus. Now you are backtracking?”
No, you asked this already, I explained a “perceived” weakness in a model doesn’t mean it’s wrong or not the best one available.
“So, if this model is wrong, …” is a wrong premise. See the preceding paragraph.
“…why do you still think the relationship: 18/4.5 = 400/100 should still is valid?”
Actually that equation is not that wrong, only you aren’t using the correct numbers and are not expressing it in the way Berry does in his paper. The ratio of the contribution of human emissions, 18.4 ppm, to natural emissions, 392 ppm, is 0.047 which is equal to the ratio of the human inflow, 4.6 ppm/year, to the natural emissions inflow, 98 ppm/year.
“You tried this tactic before, with what you called my convoluted argument, that you could not even begin to rebut.”
I have just now reviewed your argument here: https://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/08/how-the-media-help-to-destroy-rational-climate-debate/#comment-383717 and I apologize for calling it convoluted. I am frustrated because you seem dead set on trashing Berry’s model without actually finding any serious fault with it other than it doesn’t agree with what you think you know. The tire pressure analogy is not a failure of the model. It obviously didn’t help you to understand his model and in that way you could say it was a failure in communication. So we agree, the analogy is poor.
Next comes the question of what drives the processes. You object to them being exclusively driven by partial pressure. I’ll accept that. The source and sink processes are affected by other things, not the least of which is temperature as you noted.
What I won’t accept is your insistence on balanced fluxes. If they were balanced, CO2 wouldn’t vary. So let’s jettison that portion of your argument. Berry’s proposes that a relationship between inflows, outflows, and residence time determines the balance and predicts how much of the CO2 in the air is attributable to human emissions. OK, continuing on with your argument, next you say this:
“In contrast, the anthro emissions are a source with no built-in balancing sink.”
Again, if there is no balance, there’s no shortage of sources and sinks.
“Therefore its ONLY sink flux IS driven by partial pressure difference with the ocean and the soil, biosphere, etc.”
Huh? Previously you stated that temperature and other factors you mention also drive sinks. And won’t all the processes driving the sources and sinks treat human emissions the same as natural ones?
“Therefore the rise in atm pressure due to anthro is not limited to 5%.”
No, it is (18.4 ppm)/(130 ppm) = 14% of the rise in CO2 which is proportional to the rise in partial pressure, all other driving factors being the same.
“And BTW, the FF carbon, stored over millions of years, would be a natural ultra-slow source only through volcanic activity, which is balanced by other ultra slow carbon-cycle sinks. It has been of course converted to a fast source through emissions, and not balanced.”
Yes, and the speed of the source is simply another name for the magnitude of the inflow. So in terms of an argument against Berry’s model, it is irrelevant.
“As I tried to explain, we have a Complex dynamical system with multiple reservoirs and rate constants. Yet you insist that its much simpler.”
I never said the carbon cycle was simple. You and Dr. Spencer are the ones claiming simplicity:
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/08/how-the-media-help-to-destroy-rational-climate-debate/#comment-380222
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/08/how-the-media-help-to-destroy-rational-climate-debate/#comment-380933
Nate says:
September 10, 2019 at 3:52 PM
“Nowhere does Berry refer to 18 ppm as a pressure difference. The unit ppm is a concentration, not a partial pressure difference. 18 ppm is the difference between the 410 ppm total CO2 in air and the 392 attributable to natural emissions according to his model. You either dont understand the model or you are purposefully playing games hoping to exhaust my patience. Stop with the obfuscations, please.”
Partial pressure and concentration are directly proportional, my friend.
P(co2) = mole-fraction(CO2)*P(air).
Berry’s equation is the same with partial pressure or mole fraction.
And 400 ppm equivalent to 400 micro-atmospheres. His anlaogy to pressure in a tire is apt.
‘the 392 attributable to natural emissions according to his model.’
No he said natural emissions are 98 ppm/year. ‘nature emits into the atmosphere about 120 GtC from land and 90 GtC from ocean for a total of 210 GtC per year. This is equivalent to about 98 ppm per year.’
“why do you still think the relationship: 18/4.5 = 400/100 should still is valid?”
“Actually that equation is not that wrong, only you arent using the correct numbers and are not expressing it in the way Berry does in his paper. The ratio of the contribution of human emissions, 18.4 ppm, to natural emissions, 392 ppm, is 0.047 which is equal to the ratio of the human inflow, 4.6 ppm/year, to the natural emissions inflow, 98 ppm/year.”
He has calculated a residence time, via 400 ppm/(98 ppm/y) = 4 y .
He then finds an equilibrium levels Lbh for anthro and natural:
“Lbh = 4.6 (ppm/year) * 4 (years) = 18 ppm (9)
Lbn = 98 (ppm/year) * 4 (years) = 392 ppm (10)”
The way I described this is:
‘He asserts that this natural flux of 98 ppm/y will be maintained in equilibrium by a pressure difference of 400 ppm, between the atm and some nonexistent place with 0 pressure.
Therefore, he can claim that an anthro flux of 4.5 ppm/y can be maintained by an 18 ppm atmospheric pressure difference at most.’
“I apologize for calling it convoluted.” Thank you.
“I am frustrated because you seem dead set on trashing Berrys model without actually finding any serious fault with it other than it doesnt agree with what you think you know. The tire pressure analogy is not a failure of the model. It obviously didnt help you to understand his model and in that way you could say it was a failure in communication. So we agree, the analogy is poor.”
I think his model and the tire analogy are consistent, just not relevant to the Earth.
Again, the model suggests a pressure difference of 400 micro-atm, or equivalently a concentration difference of 400 ppm is found on Earth between the atmosphere and some imaginary sink. But no such sink exists!
“Next comes the question of what drives the processes. You object to them being exclusively driven by partial pressure. Ill accept that. The source and sink processes are affected by other things, not the least of which is temperature as you noted.”
OK.
“What I wont accept is your insistence on balanced fluxes. If they were balanced, CO2 wouldnt vary. So lets jettison that portion of your argument.”
The observations show they are NEARLY balanced every year, but for small changes due to ENSO.
And again the Law Dome ice core data and other evidence, that you guys are praying is wrong, shows only a little variation away from 275 ppm for millenia.
“Berrys proposes that a relationship between inflows, outflows, and residence time determines the balance and predicts how much of the CO2 in the air is attributable to human emissions.”
His model is JUST NOT CORRECT for the reasons discussed.
Therefore the relationships in his eqn 9 and 10 above do not hold.
In contrast, the anthro emissions are a source with no built-in balancing sink.
Again, if there is no balance, theres no shortage of sources and sinks.
Yes but they average annually to near 0, because the carbon cycle is well balanced on century time scales.
Now we have ADDED a new source, that ONLY ADDS to the partial pressure. An imbalance is now present.
‘Therefore its ONLY sink flux IS driven by partial pressure difference with the ocean and the soil, biosphere, etc.’
“Huh? Previously you stated that temperature and other factors you mention also drive sinks. And wont all the processes driving the sources and sinks treat human emissions the same as natural ones?”
Well, OK. Im saying that the now accumulating partial-pressure imbalance will try to equilibrate by flowing to the ocean and the biosphere. This adds a flow on top of the natural but oscillatory flows already ongoing.
This is no different than the large daily (15 C), and seasonal (25 C) oscillations in temperature that are going on in the background as the globe warms by a tiny increment 0.18 C each decade.
There is no reason for the two effects to interfere.
Therefore the rise in atm pressure due to anthro is not limited to 5%.
“No, it is (18.4 ppm)/(130 ppm) = 14% of the rise in CO2 which is proportional to the rise in partial pressure, all other driving factors being the same.”
Proportionality doesnt hold because model doesnt hold.
And BTW, the FF carbon, stored over millions of years, would be a natural ultra-slow source only through volcanic activity, which is balanced by other ultra slow carbon-cycle sinks. It has been of course converted to a fast source through emissions, and not balanced.
‘Yes, and the speed of the source is simply another name for the magnitude of the inflow. So in terms of an argument against Berrys model, it is irrelevant.’
Yes, a new external inflow, year by year, for a century or so.
‘As I tried to explain, we have a Complex dynamical system with multiple reservoirs and rate constants. Yet you insist that its much simpler.
“I never said the carbon cycle was simple.”
Spencers model is indeed oversimplified.
But will you consider that the reservoirs sizes, and coupling must be important.
A better analogy than he tire, IMO, is 3 jars connected by pairs of hoses. Then one of these, connected by much narrower hoses to a much larger jar. The 3 small jars are periodically heated and cooled, causing exchange of gas between them with some short time constant. Now a small external source of gas is added to one of the small jars. All 3 jars reach a higher equilibrium pressure. This takes a long time to leak into the large jar.
Nate says:
September 9, 2019 at 6:35 PM
Your ocean chemistry blog post (why no actual publications?).
“The seawater is oversaturated in respect of calcite, due to Ca++ ion concentration of 10.6 mmol/L . However this reaction require nucleation and growth of crystals and is usually sluggish (may speed up in the cell of invertebrates).”
This agrees with a paper discussing this very issue in my long ago post.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/08/how-the-media-help-to-destroy-rational-climate-debate/#comment-382498
“CO2 is at 410 ppm far above the equilibrium value (315) , provided a standard seawater composition and an average ocean”
Measured sea surface concentration fig 12.
https://tinyurl.com/y4funone
Clearly average in 2005 was between 375-400
Reply
Chic Bowdrie says:
September 9, 2019 at 11:18 PM
“Your ocean chemistry blog post (why no actual publications?).”
More work is in progress. If you don’t want to discuss unpublished work, that’s your choice.
“This agrees with a paper discussing this very issue in my long ago post.”
Good, we have two sources that agree on supersaturation. This doesn’t mean there is no further ocean sink for CO2. Dr. Mazza concludes, “Ocean water are therefore a huge reservoir for CO2 that waits to be filled.” She means that the excess CO2 in the atmosphere will continue to force more precipitation of carbonate indefinitely as long as the CO2 remains above the equilibrium value.
“Clearly average in 2005 was between 375-400”
Those units are in partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2), micro-atmospheres, not ppm.
I’m happy to continue to learn from you about how the ocean processes CO2. However, I doubt you can prove that nature treats human emissions differently than natural emissions. Unless you can provide some data that refutes Berry’s model or a model that better explains the data, I’m done here.
Reply
Nate says:
September 10, 2019 at 10:06 AM
‘However, I doubt you can prove that nature treats human emissions differently than natural emissions.’
That means you have been missing the point, over and over again. Willful ignorance.
What part of there are multiple reservoirs involved, and they are finite in size, can you not comprehend?
What part of the available DATA agree with this, do you not comprehend?
You can disagree, then do that, and prove it.
Instead of reading and responding to what we actually say, you prefer to respond to a strawman version that we have never said.
IOW you prefer to be an asshole.
Reply
Nate says:
September 11, 2019 at 6:52 PM
“Good, we have two sources that agree on supersaturation. This doesnt mean there is no further ocean sink for CO2. Dr. Mazza concludes, Ocean water are therefore a huge reservoir for CO2 that waits to be filled. She means that the excess CO2 in the atmosphere will continue to force more precipitation of carbonate indefinitely as long as the CO2 remains above the equilibrium value.”
I think Dr. Mazza is a he. I’ll assume he is correct, but again, the question is how long does this take? He doesnt really know.
According to your IPPC link, it takes a very very long time for this to happen.
There is lots of detail and literature that they cite.
On p 472 Box 6.1 | Multiple Residence Times for an Excess of Carbon Dioxide Emitted in the Atmosphere, they show that multiple times are involved.
They say:
“Phase 1. Within several decades of CO2 emissions, about a third to half of an initial pulse of anthropogenic CO2 goes into the land and
ocean, while the rest stays in the atmosphere (Box 6.1, Figure 1a). Within a few centuries, most of the anthropogenic CO2 will be in the
form of additional dissolved inorganic carbon in the ocean, thereby decreasing ocean pH (Box 6.1, Figure 1b). Within a thousand years,
the remaining atmospheric fraction of the CO2 emissions (see Section 6.3.2.4) is between 15 and 40%, depending on the amount of
carbon released (Archer et al., 2009b). The carbonate buffer capacity of the ocean decreases with higher CO2, so the larger the cumulative emissions, the higher the remaining atmospheric fraction (Eby et al., 2009; Joos et al., 2013).
Phase 2. In the second stage, within a few thousands of years, the pH of the ocean that has decreased in Phase 1 will be restored by
reaction of ocean dissolved CO2 and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) of sea floor sediments, partly replenishing the buffer capacity of the
ocean and further drawing down atmospheric CO2 as a new balance is re-established between CaCO3 sedimentation in the ocean and
terrestrial weathering (Box 6.1, Figure 1c right). This second phase will pull the remaining atmospheric CO2 fraction down to 10 to 25%
of the original CO2 pulse after about 10 kyr (Lenton and Britton, 2006; Montenegro et al., 2007; Ridgwell and Hargreaves, 2007; Tyrrell
et al., 2007; Archer and Brovkin, 2008).
Phase 3. In the third stage, within several hundred thousand years, the rest of the CO2 emitted during the initial pulse will be removed
from the atmosphere by silicate weathering, a very slow process of CO2 reaction with calcium silicate (CaSiO3) and other minerals of
igneous rocks (e.g., Sundquist, 1990; Walker and Kasting, 1992).”
Are they wrong? How are they wrong?
Reply
Chic Bowdrie says:
September 12, 2019 at 10:12 AM
I wasn’t planning any more comments due to utter frustration with your obfuscations. But I couldn’t pass this up. A comment by Dr. Spencer from his 9-11 post:
“In my experience, ‘climate consensus’ reviewers sometimes give the most inane and irrelevant objections to a paper if they see that the papers conclusion in any way might diminish the Climate Crisis.”
Precisely the way I would describe your review of Dr. Berry’s paper.
Reply
Nate says:
September 14, 2019 at 11:42 AM
“most inane and irrelevant objections to a paper if they see that the papers conclusion in any way might diminish the Climate Crisis.
“Precisely the way I would describe your review of Dr. Berrys paper.”
That’s you labeling something that you have been unable to rebut, as ‘inane and irrelevant’.
Please tell me where is the ‘zero pressure’ or ‘zero CO2 concentration’ sink for all the natural CO2 that his model assumes?
There is no such place on Earth. How can that be irrelevant?
Meanwhile you reject the IPCC model and evidence for it, but will not answer the question I posed:
“Are they wrong? How are they wrong?’
Reply
Roger Mcguinn says:
October 1, 2019 at 11:44 PM
Do we really know what the ocean temperatures were in the year 844AD? 1123? 1601? 3307 BC? Which ocean? At what depth taking into account what currents, outgassing from joints in tectonic plates? Really? I don’t trust 1905AD nevermind 1905BC. How about this: kill the carbon industry kills donors of conservative politics. Alt energy entrepreneurs are progressives.
Reply
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4,333 | The #1 frustration I hear from families with kids in braces is how challenging it can be to schedule appointments with their orthodontist, and, subsequently, how often their kids have to miss school for adjustment visits.
I get private messages all the time from relatives asking me why their orthodontist in their town says that their child can only get braces put on in the morning, why the office they go to is never open after 5:00 PM, why can't they get a new patient visit after school, or how are they supposed to make a 10:00 AM visit when both parents are working.
I honestly don't have a good answer for them, but I've heard these complaints often enough that I knew I absolutely did not ever want my own patients to have these issues. In fact, I wanted to guarantee that my patients would NEVER have to miss any school or have their lives upended on their journey to get a great smile.
Therefore, I'm just going to say it here before you even have to ask:
- Yes, you can get your braces on at 6:30 in the evening!
- Yes, you can have your first visit on a Saturday!
- Yes, you can work your visits around sports practice schedules!
- Yes, you will be seen AND finished on time for your appointments!
- Yes, you don't EVER have to miss school for ANY visits (unless you want to)!
I know that's a bit different than most healthcare providers who operate on the same hours as the bank or the post office. However, those hours aren't helpful to busy, working families. Also, it's not fair for you to rush around to get to your appointment in mid-day traffic only to wait 30-40 minutes before being seen, or worse, be told you have to reschedule the visit.
That's disrespectful, and not what I want for you or any of my patients.
As a resident of the Kennett Square community, I feel orthodontics is about more than just creating amazing smiles; it is about forming strong relationships and friendships with the patients, families, dental colleagues, and the community. It about mutual respect and creating a "wow" experience - in addition to the beautiful smiles!
Therefore, my goals for patients are as follows:
To shatter preconceived notions of what a healthcare “experience” is or might be!
To 100% guarantee my patients’ satisfaction with whatever it takes to do so!
To give my patients a radiant smile that fits seamlessly into their lifestyle and affordably into their budget!
To be approachable, honest, and available as a resource for any questions, big or small, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week!
To have them join me in giving back generously and without hesitation to their communities!
If you are ready for braces or Invisalign and want a healthcare experience free of hassle, inconveniences, and frustration from missing work or school, click the orange button to set up a complimentary, low stress, no obligation visit with me. Let's meet each other, sit down to talk about your smile goals, and see if we are a good fit.
Thanks for reading this message, and I look forward to helping you and your family add another great smile to our community :) | {
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4,334 | Over 200 people from across the area attended a very special service at Easton Methodist Church on the evening of 31st August. We celebrated the coming together of our three previous circuits by meeting for a delicious tea in the church hall, followed by the Inauguration of the new Circuit Service led by Revd Dr Andrew Wood (chair of the Southampton District) and Revd Gwyneth Owen (Superintendent Minister). We also welcomed the Revd Pete Brazier to Portland and the circuit.
Guests of honour included The High Sheriff of Dorset, The Mayor & Mayoress of Portland and The Mayor and Mayoress of Bridport.
This was a special occasion, with members from different circuit churches contributing to food, transport, hospitality, music and other preparations, as well as being part of the service. Our thanks go to all who helped on the day, and to the congregation at the beautiful Easton Methodist Church for hosting.
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4,335 | His comments come as it has emerged that some have been flying into Dublin Airport to dodge UK travel rules
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Trevor Quinn
Aakanksha Surve
06:00, 8 FEB 2021
Updated 10:07, 8 FEB 2021
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Simon Coveney has said UK passengers transiting through Dublin Airport do not represent a COVID-19 risk.
The Foreign Minister added this was advice provided by the World Health Organisation.
His comments come as it has emerged British passengers returning from Dubai have been flying into Dublin Airport to dodge UK travel rules.
Britain banned direct passenger flights from the UAE recently.
But Mr Coveney pledged if there is “a serious problem” with UK travellers coming through the Republic to avoid quarantine, the government will “sort it out”.
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He told RTE: “If that is being abused by UK citizens coming back from other parts of the world to try to take advantage of that issue, we will close that door by ensuring there is communication with airlines and the UK authorities to make sure they exactly know where people are coming from through an Irish airport.”
Concerns were been raised as hundreds of British passengers arrived from Dubai in Dublin Airport.
A number of airport and airline workers are believed to be unhappy as they feel like they are being put at risk due by the passengers.
One shocking incident saw unruly passengers urinate on a number of seats on one aircraft, a source told the newspaper.
It is believed that at least one day saw extra passenger capacity was added to Dublin routes from the UAE last week.
Airport staff have been referring to the practice as "the Dublin dodge".
British citizens arriving from the UAE are expected to self-isolate for 10 days on returning to the UK, but some passengers are evading quarantine restrictions by arriving from Dublin on separate bookings.
Others are waiting until they arrive in Dublin to book their journeys back with some staying overnight in the capital.
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4,336 | Arrive at the Srinagar airport / TRC and experience our prompt transfer. Visit the Mughal gardens, Chashmi-e-Shahi, Nishat & Shalimar Bagh, Botnical Garden, Pari Mahal and harwan garden. The evening is reserved for a Shikara ride . Stay overnight at the Houseboat in Srinagar.
Gulmarg Excursion - 50Km
After breakfast, proceed to Gulmarg. Spend the day sightseeing the picturesque locales. One can take the exhilarating cable car ride to Khilanmarg or Apharwat Snow Point (Cable car ride and Pony ride are not included in the package). Overnight stay in Hotel
Pahalgam Excursion - 95Km
After breakfast in Hotel Proceed to Pahalgam. The town of Pahalgam offers breathtaking views of Himalayas. After lunch visit one can visit Aru Valley,Beetab Valley,Chandanwari by ponies or local transport (not included in the package). In the evening return to srinagar And Stay overnight at the hotel in Srinagar.
Sonmarg Excursion - 85Km
After early breakfast, proceed on a day excursion to Sonmarg, the 'Meadow of Gold'. Enjoy a pony ride on the glacier (ponies can be hired directly). Come back and stay overnight in Hotel at Srinagar. | {
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4,337 | At the start of your study abroad, you might feel a bit lost or stressed, as you will live in a new environment, with a new culture, having a new experience. However, the Durham University International Study Centre provides you with all the support that you could never imagine.
Before the pathway programme starts
Weeks before my programme started last September, I needed to apply for a student visa. I was grateful that I got help from the Visa and Compliance team to quickly issue me the pre-CAS and CAS letter that enabled me to apply for my student visa.
In the meantime, I also got support from the Central Student Support team. They provided me with information regarding the accommodation arrangements, induction week and more.
This support from the Centre staff gave me a lot of excitement to start my pathway programme.
The first week - Induction Week
The first week of your programme will be an induction week. This will be a week full of different kinds of activities, including things to teach you more about the Centre and your pathway programme, and will allow you to meet your tutors and classmates. The induction week gave me a clear idea of what the year ahead would be like and helped me to understand more about Durham.
Furthermore, the central student support team organised some Q&A sessions during the induction week as well. This is useful, as staff are there to answer students’ questions, such as how to set up a bank account, things to do around Stockton and more.
I arrived at Rialto Court two days before my programme started, to settle down myself and give myself time to get to know the town. Once I stepped into the building, I was warmly welcomed by the accommodation staff and quickly did some paperwork and moved into my apartment.
Throughout the year
Regarding my programme, let me start with the support that I have received from an academic point of view. Once I started my course, I was allocated an Academic Personal Tutor (APT), who was there for me to give me advice and support in every step throughout my programme at the Centre. They also arranged regular one-to-one meetings with me, and supported me on how to develop and improve my study skills. On top of that, my APT also organised workshop sessions to help me improve certain skills, like time management and study tips.
The module tutors were also very supportive—they kept our lessons fun and interactive, even though lessons were online. The tutors would also respond to my questions quickly outside of lessons. I was impressed by their professionalism during my time at the Centre.
Outside of the classroom, the Centre’s Student Enrichment team organised fun social activities, like clubs, societies and leadership programmes. I also received a weekly newsletter from the student enrichment team covering a wide range of topics, including enrichment activities, COVID messages, campus information and more. The information in the weekly newsletter is crucial, and I strongly suggested you read it every week.
When I was a bit homesick, stressed or worried about exams, the welfare team was there for me. They did some drop-in sessions at Rialto Court, and I just went down there for a chat with them. They also provided one-to-one meetings if needed.
During my stay in Rialto Court, I met loads of new friends. We always chatted, studied and even cooked together. Especially after exams, we celebrated together and had a great time, so be sure to make an effort to meet new friends.
The Accommodation staff were also very kind, as they helped me to collect my mail and kept us safe. They always resolved our issues quickly if anything happened in our student residence. Rialto Court is just one of the best places to live in.
After progression
After all exams are over, your hard work has paid off and you successfully progressed to Durham University, the International Study Centre’s Progression team are there to help you. They will provide useful support when your pathway programme comes to an end and during the transition period. I received a weekly newsletter from them, along with loads of information in preparing for my studies at Durham University.
To sum up, the Durham University International Study Centre provides students with a wide range of support before, during and after studying a pathway programme. Be sure to seek help when you needed, and the Centre staff will be more than happy to help you out. Finally, I hope you will get the most out of your studies here, and wish you the most success to progress your dream university, Durham University. | {
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4,338 | Tom's Hardware reports a number of motherboard makers have confirmed that the upcoming Rocket Lake-S processors from Intel will work on existing 400-series motherboards. This is in-line with expectations but up until now it was never officially confirmed.
Of course, you will need a BIOS update to enable Rocket Lake-S support. Whether all 400-series motherboards will get this update is unknown. Some manufacturers may opt to exclude some models, especially lower-end boards.
While it's possible to enable Rocket Lake-S processors on all LGA1200 motherboards, we suspect that support will vary from one motherboard vendor to another. Besides the shift to the Cypress Cove microarchitecture, one of Rocket Lake-S's biggest attraction is PCIe 4.0 support. Nonetheless, some vendors might not have initially purposed some of their 400-series offering to support PCIe 4.0, especially the entry-level motherboards. That could be the explanation of why Biostar didn't mention Rocket Lake-S support on non-Z490 motherboards.
About the Author
Thomas De Maesschalck
Thomas has been messing with computer since early childhood and firmly believes the Internet is the best thing since sliced bread. Enjoys playing with new tech, is fascinated by science, and passionate about financial markets. When not behind a computer, he can be found with running shoes on or lifting heavy weights in the weight room.
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DVHARDWARE is a Belgium-based hardware & technology website. Passionate about writing news and reviews about the latest technology. | {
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4,339 | Photo By Seaman Imani Daniels | PORTSMOUTH, Va. (Dec. 29, 2020) Kristin Macan, Mercy Chefs director of community...... read more read more
Photo By Seaman Imani Daniels | PORTSMOUTH, Va. (Dec. 29, 2020) Kristin Macan, Mercy Chefs director of community kitchens and programs, delivered meals to Naval Medical Center Portsmouth (NMCP), Dec. 29. Mercy Chefs is a faith-based, non-profit disaster relief organization. The organization exists to serve professionally prepared meals to victims, volunteers and first responders in national emergencies and natural disasters. They are committed to using their resources to meet the needs of others. (U.S Navy photo by Seaman Imani N. Daniels/Released) see less | View Image Page
PORTSMOUTH, VA, UNITED STATES
12.29.2020
Story by Seaman Imani Daniels
Naval Medical Center - Portsmouth
✔ ✗ Subscribe
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PORTSMOUTH, Va. (Dec. 29, 2020) – Naval Medical Center Portsmouth (NMCP) received a special delivery from Mercy Chefs as they assist in the command’s battle against COVID-19, Dec. 29.
Mercy Chefs is a non-profit disaster relief organization. The organization exists to serve professionally prepared meals to victims, volunteers and first responders in national emergencies and natural disasters. They are committed to using their resources to meet the needs of others.
“Mercy Chefs is a national organization that helps during pandemics and this is the first time that they have been able to deliver to NMCP,” said Cathy Fox, Quality and Safety Nurse Consultant. “Our nurses, doctors and departments are working extra hard during this time, so were delighted to have this organization bring us some meals for our frontline workers.”
Headquartered in Olde Towne, Portsmouth, Mercy Chefs prepares 3,000 meals daily in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Our program does disaster relief all over the country and the world,” said Kristin Macan, Mercy Chefs director of community kitchens and programs.
“During this pandemic, that disaster has been brought to our backyard.”
A total of 200 meals were delivered to NMCP’s COVID-19 Drive Thru as well as multiple departments including the call center and the Immunizations Clinic.
“To be able to be a part of helping the people serving on the frontlines is something we do in disaster relief all the time,” Macan said. “We are first responders ourselves; being able to feed and bring hope to those who work hard during this pandemic is really meaningful. I am excited to be here and helping out is really an honor.”
As the pandemic continues to spread in the community, Mercy Chefs proudly continues to meet the demand of the people.
As the U.S. Navy's oldest, continuously-operating military hospital since 1830, Naval Medical Center Portsmouth proudly serves past and present military members and their families. The nationally-acclaimed, state-of-the-art medical center, along with the area's 10 branch health and TRICARE Prime Clinics, provide care for the Hampton Roads area. The medical center also supports premier research and teaching programs designed to prepare new doctors, nurses and hospital corpsman for future roles in healing and wellness.
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Date Taken: 12.29.2020
Date Posted: 01.04.2021 14:28
Story ID: 386406
Location: PORTSMOUTH, VA, US
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4,340 | We've been around since 1991, and we think that's part of what makes us great. We create design for Print, Web and Digital media, and have worked with a huge range of wonderful clients since we started out. No company is too small, no brand too big and from start-ups to established names, we've done it all! With a great team of passionate designers we're going to keep on doing what we know best, so what are you waiting for? Our next great client could be you.
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I just wanted to pass on my thanks and congratulations on the completion of the new Answer4u website project.
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I had an enormous amount of confidence that DW Design you were the right partner for the job but I'm so pleased that my expectations were surpassed.
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Darren McCowan
Answer-4u - Marketing Manager
I echo Darren's comments on the new site. We have a great asset now that will service our business objectives well and importantly the journey was efficient and an enjoyable process.
Thanks to the whole team that was involved. Look forward to further projects together.
Stuart Wilson
Answer-4u - General Manager
NAV have been working with dw design for over 10 years, the latest project being a complete re-design of our main website. The design elements we required were quite specific and often unique, the dw team not only created our vision but provided excellent guidance and support throughout. Their ability to interpret a brief combined with their creativity and a flair for great design, has resulted in a website that is better than we had imagined.
Stuart Coe
NAV Director
With an incredibly tight timeframe and multiple documents that needed to be designed we were doubtful we would be able to find a design team to take on the project. But dw design made the entire process stress free and couldn't have been more supportive - delivering us excellent results and adapting to our ever changing timeframes without hesitation. The full team have been an incredible support with a 'can do' attitude throughout and we could not have delivered what was asked without them. A fantastic team to work with!
Jenny Goodwin
NHS Mansfield and Ashfield CCG
Darren, Dawn, and the team have been welcoming, supportive, professional and friendly from the moment of first contact. Whether over the phone, via email, or in person, we've always received a prompt and warm response.
As a small organisation with a tight budget, it is essential that we make the most of all resources. The efficiency and competence of services received from the team at DW absolutely matches this requirement, and we have always felt confident to rely on the team; even when tight deadlines are required.
We have commissioned a range of work, from logo design and various branding items; to promotional material and newsletters. In two years we have never required any massive alterations to initial proofs, even when providing very vague design briefs (sorry!). Any minor amendments are always handled without any hesitation, and to complete satisfaction.
We would highly recommend DW design and print for a variety of design and print services.
Steven Benson
Broxtowe Active Schools Network Manager
I just wanted to pass on my thanks, we are SO happy with the website - it's exactly what we were hoping for (and a lot more!). It's got the modern look that we were in desperate need of and it now fits our personality so much better! We've had brilliant feedback already.
MCS Event Pro
First class work and excellent customer service every time.
DW Design comes highly recommended.
Marketing Manager
Raleigh UK
Cabin Master have used dw design for a number of years for developing our marketing materials. They have produced brochures, advertisements, pop-up displays and exhibition materials.
Darren and the team has a deep understanding of our business and is able to create materials that communicate our message in a meaningful way. We often have tight deadlines and dw always responds promptly and get the job done on time.
Cabin Master
We have used dw for our design and print needs for many years now.
We choose dw because of the high standard of design ability they have in-house and the convenience of a one stop shop for both design and print. They are a friendly and helpful team.
Emily Bendell
Director - BlueBella Lingerie
Brilliant design and service! We are one of the top twenty fishing tackle companies in the UK.
We supply items nationally and internationally. Darren and his team have helped us with product graphics, packaging design, advertising campaigns and sales literature.
We are very pleased with the results and have continued to expand our business even during the recession.
David Middleton
Director - Middy Tackle International
Children think the new dental passport is great! All the illustrations and design dw did for us was fantastic! They knew exactly what we wanted but also what would appeal to the children.
We always ask dw for ideas before we start anything now as they have a huge array of experience and ideas to share - it cuts down the time so much
The team are always so positive and quick to respond. Delivery is always prompt and arrives when it says it will! This makes such a difference to tight deadlines.
Oral Health Promotion
Julia Wilkinson
Tooth Fairy Job!
NHS Nottingham City Primary Care Team has worked with dw design & print on a variety of projects including the latest tooth fairy cinema advert to advertise NHS Dentist availability. Their creative designs and professionalism makes them a pleasure to work with as well their ability to work to very tight deadlines. I could not recommend DW Design & Print highly enough.
NHS Nottingham City & Nottinghamshire County
I just wanted to say thank you to you and your team for recently designing our sales and lettings brochures. They look fantastic and the design and layout has been getting great feedback.
Sara Spybey
Branch Liaison Officer
Gascoines Estate Agents
As a start-up company neither my business partner or I had much experience with branding and neither of us are tech minded. After our first attempt at getting a logo designed which didn't work out, I went to see Darren to see if he could help. From the moment I sat down with him I felt that he was genuinely interested in what we were wanting to achieve, and he asked lots of questions to ensure that he had a good feel for the kind of branding which would work for us.
I was surprised at how quickly he responded with a range of possible logo concepts - and astonished at how accurately he had interpreted the brief. To be honest, of the eight or so concepts he offered, we would have been happy with any of them. However, one in particular leapt out at us and this is the one we went with. Suddenly, instead of having a basic logo for the website and stationery, we had a logo and branding concept which we were excited about and wanted to show everyone. Subsequently, we asked Darren and his team to take on our web design, signage, stationery and merchandise.
They have done brilliant work all the way and are a joy to work with. Always prompt and responsive and very patient with non-tech people like us. We will continue to work with them as we develop as a company and have no hesitation in recommending them to anyone - whether a large company looking to re-brand or someone like us - just setting out and needing a lot of hand holding.
Nick Sharp
Heavy Duty Motorcycles Ltd
I chose Darren and the team to come up with a clean, fresh website design for my new business (yourselfiez) I wanted "bells and whistles" but without it looking too, well, "bells and whistles"! They certainly delivered! It has all the functionality I wanted in a clean design that looks great on desktops, tablets and most importantly mobile phones. Throughout the whole process the team were great at converting my thoughts into a website with a great end user experience. | {
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4,341 | This website uses cookies to help us give you the best experience when you visit our website. By continuing to use this website, you consent to our use of these cookies.
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Jump to...EntrematicDynaco EuropeDYNACO USADYNACO CanadaDYNACO MexicoDYNACO RussiaBunka Japan
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4 MILLION OPENINGS
20 February 2019
In august 2002, Entrematic (then called Dynaco) has installed a M2 Compact door at a pharmaceutical plant in Belgium. The door connects the production unit to a storage hall. There is an intensive traffic of forklift drivers, activating the door by means of radar.
17 years later, this door is still operational. In the meantime, it has reached over 4 million opening cycles. Quite a convincing proof that a Dynaco door is a worthwhile investment with an extremely long lifetime. | {
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4,342 | after deploying it when we run the report in AX2009 then while printing the report directly then i am getting space between body and footer. but when i am exporting the report in file format (m HTML) and printing it the report is fine. | {
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4,343 | that i know. but have you ever tried to publish system codeunit??? like codeunit id 18. or any other whoes id is below 50000??? | {
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4,344 | Yes lets talk How Etoros Trading Platform Works… an undertanding of Questions that i hear from new investors what if you’re brand new to investing you simply don’t want to decide what you actually want to invest and you want somebody to do it for you there’s only a couple of ways that that can happen the first of all you can hire an investment portfolio manager they’ll usually charge a quite a high premium to do that maybe one or two percent of your profits will go to them the other thing is of course you can buy mutual funds specific funds are created again with an account manager in the background as i’m going to cover in this video they have a service though that’s called copy trading copy portfolios as well now if you’re brand new to a total please bear in mind this platform is quite advanced you can do cfds which of course cfds are ways of investing
investor, market, fee, time, broker, deposit, trade, accounts, review, leverage, crypto, value, funds, performance, trades, stocks, assets, markets, copy, service, spread, demo, access, withdrawal
high risk, trading cfds, social trading, retail investor accounts, demo account, past performance, social trading platform, minimum deposit, business combination, usa llc, trading platform, regulatory
with not actually having the full amount of capital so with anything that you’re learning about please do study the platform don’t just assume because i use it that you can use it right away do some due diligence have a little play around with it even invest with virtual money they give that option as well so you actually get used to the structure of the site and then when you’re ready to use your own money to invest you can do so now i will disclaim of course your capital is at risk this is investing we’re doing you’re investing in real companies if you choose to in this particular video we’re talking about how to copy other people’s investments with your money so obviously your capital is at risk and we have to bear that in mind do not just do something because that person has said they’ve made profit 14 months in a row invest in these choices because you believe is the right ones for you and that being said let’s dive straight in [Music] so the things we’re going to cover in this video is understanding what is copy trading what are copy portfolios it’s part of social trading which is one aspect that is probably
etoro portfolio for a trader or investors risk with cfds and social trading
famous for it’s the option to see what other traders are doing incredible we don’t usually get that insight from a lot of platforms and the other benefit is these copy portfolios are copy trading and so that means with our money we can actually say i want to do exactly what that trader is doing or match that exact portfolio of options and basically every time they make a trade they buy they sell whatever they do your money will be mimicked with it so that means if for example 10 of their investment portfolio is in tesla guess what you’ll now be investing 10 of your money in so we’re going to also cover is the fees involved really critical you understand what are the costs of this now with any platform there will be some cost to obviously these are real companies that are investing they’re doing the buying the selling for you there’s going to be charges involved and even some of the zero fee sites then may not charge you for actually buying and selling funds or etfs individual commodities individual stocks
framework, future results, user score, virtual portfolio, complex instruments, cryptocurrency trading, etoro platform, etoro account, customer service, popular investor, united states, cfds work, etoro review, real money, copy trading, credit card, etoro demo account, trading fees, volatile instruments
there’ll be fees on other parts maybe it’s our fx rate when you’re changing from uk to u.s dollars there’s all kinds of fees associated so do your due diligence and i’m going to show you the fees with in particular in this video the next would be things to know before you actually start investing in copy trading or copy portfolios and finally some best advice best practices if you are thinking about this as a tool whether you start your journey or your more advanced investor so let’s kick off with fees really important to understand these now on there’s a couple of fees there isn’t fees to do with actually buying and selling okay so commission fees are free however there are a couple of other fees the first one is withdrawal fees so you can obviously put money in now if you’re in the uk we put our uk money
leverage the investment from fintech cryptocurrencies without drawdown
and it’s automatically converted into us dollars and i’ll cover a little point about that later on but when you want to withdraw your money so you sell your shares you sell your commodities whatever you’re selling the minimum amount you can withdraw is thirty dollars back out and they do charge you five dollars per withdrawal so for me of course knowing that i’m going to make sure that i’m only withdrawing when i absolutely need to now you might say okay that’s quite expensive and i get that but it’s all to do with how they run their platform they have to charge fees somewhere and withdrawal fees are just one of those options that they have a lot of platforms obviously are free to do such things has this five dollar charge so in my eyes make your withdrawals largely it can be maybe even once a year once every six months you know depends completely how you’re investing but that is a fee to bear in mind the second fee that i’ve touched upon is that conversion fee now with you’re dealing in us dollars only there’s not an option to buy in euros or uk and that’s fine that suits me How Etoros Trading Platform Works
The price of profit according to bitcoin stock and button assets percentages
a lot of my stocks are us dollar stocks anyway or the etfs that i’m buying or even some crypto so i’m good with that we have what’s called the fx currency conversion fee now when you use anyone so if you’re using trading two and two free trade anyone at all this is standard they have i suppose stuck with whatever fee they charge for that conversion rate you kind of have to accept you know if you want to use their platform go from uk to us then that conversion fee is there what are they actually giving you in terms of your uk pounds to us dollars and all platforms are the same you can’t haggle with them you can’t go to the bank and say give me us dollars instead you have to pay their fees now the great thing about though when you’ve converted your money you do not have to invest it right away that dollar value can sit in your portfolio as cash dollars for as long as you like so that means the initial day that you buy or convert your dollars is the only charge that happens now with copy trading and copy portfolios there aren’t any additional fees so that’s really good using that part of their website won’t certainly limit you in any way however we have to be aware of two other fees the first being what’s called spread fees okay and i’m going to show you what i mean on now a spread fee as i’m going to show you
on is basically the difference that is part of the investment platform between the buy price and the sale price okay it’s their premium on doing both those two actions now tesla if you can see on this part of the website right now tesla’s dollar value 599 per share in tesla that actually means that when you want to buy or sell as you can see it’s not the price you’re seeing up here let me show you that again so the current price of tesla is the value of a share what’s called spread fees is the difference then actually to buy that share on the platform and you’ll find this everywhere this is another way that they make a small amount of profit from you every time you do a buyer’s share so keep that in mind obviously it’s more expensive to buy than it is to sell so they’re going to give you less back with your sale and you say okay well why does that happen it just does that is the nature of a lot of platforms out there there’s a difference between if you’re buying it then you want to sell it and that is how they make a little bit of money on those spread fees it’s usually incredibly small it could be a matter of pens matter of cents in there but that’s one place every investment company will again make a little bit money now the last feat is called an
A Commodities broker in apple menu crypto shares
overnight fee now this is really important if you’re actually using cfds yourself as well an overnight fee is when you’re not doing that buy sell transaction in the same day okay there’s then an overnight fee charged or even if you go from the friday to the monday before sailing a weekend fee now this only applies to cfds so if you’re actually buying out the etf the stock the commodity and using time one leverage which means you’re actually buying the exact asset rather than using leverage anyway you won’t get hit with these fees but these fees are if you’re using leverage and cfds and then you’re going to have these fees if you’re not buy selling in the same day so let’s say if you go into the help section this isn’t the overnight fees information you can see exactly the breakdown and it’ll tell you what are the charges what are the fees then for when you’re doing overnight or you’re doing over weekends and that only applies as i said to cfds there are some additional charges of course depending on what you are investing in as well this is on your own so keep that in mind but full fees are completely within their help information okay and we talked about as well as free to deposit in but there’s a five dollar charge if you want to withdraw from anything whether it’s been cfds normal commodity stock shares everything there’s that five dollar withdrawal fee now another thing to call it as i’ve said copy trading and copy portfolios are two different ways of actually using these copy functions they don’t have any extra fees on top of the normal fees that
are there now what you need to bear in mind though is these potentially managed by other people completely or sometimes have created portfolios you’ve got a real person doing the management you have to make sure you select the person that’s right for you just like any line of work this is your financial assets so we absolutely need to make sure it’s the right person for us before we copy them so the first things i would call it if you do want to use this function we’ve got a couple of different options for us first of all if you’re brand new to investing i want to draw your attention to this within you have the option to invest real money or a virtual platform virtual means i think you get yep a hundred thousand dollars to play with and it’s not real money that you’re investing you won’t need to put in your credit card details or anything you can basically have this virtual portfolio mimic as if you are using your own money but actually buy pretend buy copy people whatever you like if you’re not
diversification, regulation s-x, cfd trading, dividends,
feeling comfortable with using your real money perhaps this is a great option for you again to test the theories okay you may want to buy tesla or apple or this etf why not use the virtual option as a way to kind of safe play with it obviously you might have missed out on gains and losses during that time of course if you had invested your real money it allows you to build confidence understand the platform so that’s one option for you then next week and i’m going to go back to my real portfolio here now we’re going to deep dive actually how to copy people and copy portfolios now here’s something to bear in mind before you select someone that you’re going to copy or a portfolio you’re going to copy make sure you understand what your risk profile is now what do i mean by that obviously for me i’m investing long term and they tend to say the longer you’re leaving your investments the riskier you can be risk just means am i okay with potentially losing a good amount of this investment or gaining as
etoro, trading, account, platform, traders, money, risk, trader, investment, portfolio, cryptocurrency, fees, cfds, cryptocurrencies, investors, users
well now remember everything is ups and downs you will make money you’ll lose money that’s why they make the statistic 75 people will lose money but that equally means they’ll lose at some point in their journey obviously people do make money as well and i’ve got videos all about how you can make sure you’re one of the people to actually make money but in this circumstance make sure you research your risk level would you be okay giving your money to someone else which is effectively what you’re doing and trusting them make sure you understand what they’re investing in fully if you’re someone who isn’t wanting to be that risky don’t pick someone who’s completely into crypto or currency conversion think about it you’d probably want a backbone of strong commodities
currency pairs, shares, diversify, contract for difference, asset classes,
like gold or even oil plus more traditional etfs and index funds you might not want some up-and-coming single stocks in your portfolio do the same with who you’re following now as i say you can actually use this too really easily over here you can copy people now it will give you a lot of choices and you can use the system to actually search for someone that you fancy actually following so let’s see maybe we want someone from united kingdom um who invests in let’s see who does etfs they’ve gained at least 10 yeah that sounds fair that sounds a good amount and i can find everybody who has met that criteria and it does give you a risk factor as well so it tends to be the higher the number the more riskier they are with their stock investing now obviously there are a number of people that have quite high returns How Etoros Trading Platform Works.
bear in mind it’s like anything to do with the news or predictions of the future this does not mean somebody will make 56 for you for the next 12 months they could make four or minus 50 there’s no way to guarantee so do keep that in mind and as simple as clicking the copy button and off you go and then you know ask you to confirm are you okay with this and off you go now another way to actually deep dive if we click on this person for example ruby mza as an example you can actually deep dive into what is she actually investing in so let’s go into portfolio and you can see she’s quite heavy into microsoft mastercard amazon she likes her tech a little bit so that’s good to know ibm paypal yep she’s definitely like kind of into those blue box and the tech industry she’s got some of mine actually that i invest in too which is good so actually for me knowing what i like to invest in my individual stocks and shares she would resonate with me she’s got a good spread in tech companies that seems to be what she prefers she’s also got a little bit more um of the kind of main food companies and you’ve got you know pharmaceutical and production companies as that.
diversify your portfolio, margin, etoro (uk) ltd, copy trading, cryptocurrency exchanges, cryptocurrencies, ecn, fund manager, etf, coinbase,, liquidity, indexes, market order | {
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4,346 | EAE Elektronik is a Polish manufacturer of electronic devices, whose domain is the SMT and THT assmbly. The company was founded in 1993. Initially, the company’s basic activity was manufacturing of electric and household intercom systems. In 1999 first control units for cooker hoods were made and in 2001 production of electronic controllers commenced. Launching of production of electronics gave rise to the beginnings of current activity. In 2003 first machinery was purchased and construction of production line, first for printed circuits and then for elements assembly, started.
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The year 2004 brought further investments, SPARTAN wave, milling plotter and M60 machine that allowed for further development and significantly increased production capacity of our company. In June 2006 the company changed its headquarters and moved to a new building. In July 2006 a new machine for SMT assembly, Fuji NXT, was purchased due to which our company significantly increased its production capacity whilst increasing SMT assembly process’ quality. In 2011 our production line was developed by the device for automatic optical control of PCBs, AOI MIRTEC MV-3L, allowing for testing the boards or whole PCB panels.
In 2011 we granted a certificate confirming compliance with PN-EN ISO 9001:2015 and IQNet standards in the scope of design, production and distribution of electronic and electrotechnic goods. We also became a certified member of IPC organisation and Fair Play Company of 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016.
In 2013 we celebrated the 20th anniversary of the company’s operation. The success and our dynamic growth originated from long-term, solid operation, consequently realized ambitious projects and, most of all, our reliable staff. Thanks to their engagement we undertake new, challenging activities the effects of which allow us to evaluate our successes with pride and satisfaction.
We implemented Environmental Management System according to ISO 14001 in 2016. A positive result of the certification audit has resulted in introduction of Integrated Management System.
Service offer of EAE Elektronik covers whole life cycle of products – from development and management of delivery chains to production and post-sale service. The company’s activity strategy is based on complex consultancy, caring about our customers’ needs and realization of individual and complex systems, delivered according to the highest quality standards.
Aiming at satisfaction of our customers, we guarantee that due to investments in machine park, implementation of the newest management systems and quality standards, based on expert knowledge and vast competences of our staff, we are able to undertake any new challenge, whilst minimizing the costs and the order realization waiting time.
In 2014 the company’s building was developed which was possible thanks to European Union co-funding for purchasing of a new line for SMT assembly. New production workshop was adapted for strict standards of antistatic safety. Currently, we are operating in production and designing of electronic devices, and for our customers we realize assembly services in SMT and THT technology.
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Headquarters
EAE Elektronik Spółka z o.o.
ul. Przemyska 24d
38-500 Sanok
Office
+48 13 306 71 00
[email protected]
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+48 13 306 71 15
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+48 13 306 71 53
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4,347 | LOS ANGELES (AP) — A camera operator told authorities that Alec Baldwin had been careful with weapons on the set of the film “Rust” before the actor shot and killed a cinematographer with a gun he’d been told was safe to use, court records released Sunday show.
Cameraman Reid Russell told a detective that Baldwin was rehearsing a scene Thursday in which he was set to draw his gun while sitting in a church pew and point it at the camera. Russell said he was unsure whether the weapon was checked before it was handed to Baldwin.
The camera wasn’t rolling when the gun went off, killing cinematographer Halyna Hutchins, Russell told a detective according to a search warrant affidavit.
Authorities said Friday that the assistant director, Dave Halls, had handed the weapon to Baldwin and announced “cold gun,” indicating it was safe to use. When asked about how Baldwin treated firearms on the set, Russell said the actor was very careful, citing an instance when Baldwin made sure a child actor was not near him when a gun was being discharged.
The affidavit released Sunday also includes statements by director Joel Souza, who was standing behind Hutchins and was wounded.
It detailed the moments before the shooting and shows that there was turmoil on the set the day of the shooting. Several members of the camera crew walked off the production in a dispute over payment and lodging, Russell said, and he was left with a lot of work to do. Only one camera was available to shoot, and it had to be moved because the light had shifted and there was a shadow.
Souza said that he was focused on how the scene would appear on camera. He said he recalled hearing the phrase “cold gun” being used before the shooting.
He said the scene they were shooting did not call for the use of live rounds.
Souza described the gunshot as sounding like a whip and a loud pop.
On Sunday, a crew member who worked with Halls on another project said she had raised safety concerns about him in 2019.
Maggie Goll, a prop maker and licensed pyrotechnician, said in a statement that she filed an internal complaint with the executive producers of Hulu’s “Into the Dark” series in 2019 over concerns about Halls’ behavior on set. Goll said in a phone interview Sunday that Halls disregarded safety protocols for weapons and pyrotechnics and tried to continue filming after the supervising pyrotechnician lost consciousness on set.
Halls has not returned phone calls and email messages seeking comment.
The fatal shooting and previous experiences point to larger safety issues that need to be addressed, Goll said, adding that crew member safety and wellbeing were top issues in recent contract negotiations between a union that represents film and TV workers and a major producers’ group.
“This situation is not about Dave Halls. … It’s in no way one person’s fault,” she said. “It’s a bigger conversation about safety on set and what we are trying to achieve with that culture.”
The film’s chief electrician Serge Svetnoy blamed producers for Hutchins’ death in an emotional Facebook post on Sunday. Svetnoy said he had worked with Hutchins on multiple films and faulted “negligence and unprofessionalism” among those handling weapons on the set. He said producers hired an inexperienced armorer.
Hollywood professionals say they’re baffled by the circumstances and production crews have quickly stepped up safety measures.
Jeffrey Wright, who has worked on projects including the James Bond franchise and the upcoming movie “The Batman,” was acting with a weapon on the set of “Westworld” when news broke of the shooting Thursday at a New Mexico ranch. “We were all pretty shocked. And it informed what we did from that moment on,” he said in an interview Sunday at the Newport Beach Film Festival.
“I don’t recall ever being handed a weapon that was not cleared in front of me — meaning chamber open, barrel shown to me, light flashed inside the barrel to make sure that it’s cleared,” Wright said. “Clearly, that was a mismanaged set.”
Actor Ray Liotta agreed with Wright that the checks on firearms are usually extensive.
“They always — that I know of — they check it so you can see,” Liotta said. “They give it to the person you’re pointing the gun at, they do it to the producer, they show whoever is there that it doesn’t work.”
A vigil for Hutchins was held Sunday in Southern California, where attendees exchanged tearful hugs and speakers echoed calls for heightened safety standards.
Baldwin, who is known for his roles in “30 Rock” and “The Hunt for Red October” and his impression of former President Donald Trump on “Saturday Night Live,” has described the killing as a “tragic accident.”
___
Flaccus reported from Portland, Oregon. Michelle Eaton in Newport Beach, California, contributed to this report.
Source:
Crew member: Baldwin careful with guns before fatal shooting
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Business and Industry Center Hosts Local Business and Manufacturing Leaders
April 21, 2017 | Campus News
Statewide, there are nearly 6,500 manufacturing facilities that need highly skilled workers. On April 21, nearly two dozen local business leaders saw firsthand how the East Central College Business and Industry Center is helping close that skills gap.
Check out the photo gallery on Facebook!
ECC President Dr. Jon Bauer led the tour through the precision machining, industrial engineering, industrial maintenance and HVAC programs, along with the state-of-the-art welding lab.
“I was very impressed with the Business and Industry Center,” said Mark Borzillo, Silgan Plastic Food Containers. “I think East Central College is positioned very well for the future.”
Borzillo hopes the BIC can help change the mindset for students in the region when it comes to a career in manufacturing.
“Getting a higher education doesn’t necessarily mean getting a four-year degree,” he said. “I see strong needs within manufacturing for skilled people. The jobs are there, and the pay is good!”
It’s an issue that certainly resonates with East Central College.
“We know growth in jobs over the next several years, regionally, statewide and nationally, will take place primarily in technical careers,” Dr. Bauer said. “The Business and Industry Center is helping train the next generation of workers businesses need.”
In fact, Franklin County has more than four times the manufacturing establishments than any other county in the East Central College service region. They make up nearly 25 percent of all jobs in the area.
Jobs like those at the INTEK Corporation.
“This was my third or fourth visit to the facility,” said Jesse Stricker, INTEK Corporation. “Every time I stop by it is more impressive.”
The company manufactures energy-efficient ovens for industrial and commercial process heating, dryers and elements for screen printing as well as heaters for space heating. Stricker says the workforce skills gap is very real.
“Our biggest challenge is finding workers with marketable skills,” he said. “We look forward to seeing more students entering the programs at East Central College and coming out with those skills.”
Stricker also believes ECC’s night and weekend classes would likely appeal to his current workforce.
Also during the tour, Dr. Bauer also touched on the new Workforce Development Network between community colleges in Missouri during the event.
“Businesses now have access to resources at every community college in the state,” Dr. Bauer said. “This aligns our workforce development system directly with our economic development efforts. Our goal is to improve customer service for businesses and help Missouri compete for job creation projects that too often go to other states.”
The funding for the Business and Industry Center is comprised of a $1.2 million Economic Development Administration grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Commerce, a $1 Million USDA Rural Economic Development loan, the ECC Foundation’s capital campaign and institutional funding. | {
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4,349 | November 23, 2011 (San Diego) – An Albertson’s store in San Diego is serving up deals to help families in need this Thanksgiving. The Albertson’s at 2235 University Avenue in North Park will give away a free turkey with any $25 purchase. “We have four pallets of turkeys on hand,” a spokesman told ECM.
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4,350 | February is UK LGBT month and Croydon is no exception, hosting many events which will celebrate the culture and achievements of the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community.
Croydon Library is currently hosting an exhibition which explores LGBT history. It features work by LGBT organisations in Croydon and local youth groups.
Councillor Mark Watson, cabinet member for communities, safety and justice in Croydon said: “There’s a long history of stigma being attached to anyone who is not heterosexual – but fortunately we are increasingly living in more enlightened times and there are fewer barriers for members of the LGBT community to overcome.
One of the works on display is a film created by LGBT youth group, The Bridge. A member of the group explained the purpose of the film, saying: “I hope that this film will teach professionals how to support LGBT and young people”.
Watson said: “There is still more prejudice and intolerance in the world than there should be, and events like these are designed to bring people together from all walks of life to recognise the fact that sexuality has nothing to do with ability or self-worth.”
This month is also for raising awareness of problems faced by the LGBT community.
Croydon Council said they will play their part “by joining in with a national celebration of the LGBT community and staging a string of events throughout February”
This year’s theme for the annual LGBT history month is religion, belief and philosophy.
The council, local venues and community groups have published a detailed events guide available on the Croydon Council website. Our pick of events can be found below.
Supporting LGBTQ+ Young People Day Conference
A day of talks, films and discussion aimed at professionals working with young people who are lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender or questioning.
Monday February 22
9.30am-4.30pm
Seminar: Community arts, youth work and resilience
Booking required. Email communitymusiccroydon@ gmail.com. Town Hall Room F10
Monday February 22
5-7pm
Rainbow Reading Group
Rainbow Reading Group will be reading Carrington: A Life By Gretchen Holbrook Gerzina. Level One, Croydon Central Library.
Thursday February 25
2:30pm
Displays in Croydon Central Library
An exhibition in Croydon Central Library and a history month trail at the Museum of Croydon, both celebrating the lives and achievements of the LGBT community.
Tuesday February 23 – Saturday February 27
10:30am-5:30pm
There is also a film programme at the David Lean Cinema, with screenings of The Danish Girl, Grandma and Girl At My Door. Tickets available here.
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4,351 | I’m writing this because I get questions. People that I work with therapeutically, as well as people I encounter, frequently ask me what exactly it is that I do. Fair question. In fact, it’s a really good question. In trying to explain, I’ve had to take stock of the methods I use, the knowledge I draw upon, and then (why not?) come up with a name for it all.
You see, I don’t do the usual, talking kind of psychotherapy. Actually, none of the psychotherapists at Eastwind do strictly mainline therapy. That’s why they’re here, and why they’re in such demand. When it comes to me, I’ve put together a system based on all that I have studied in the areas of spirituality, Chinese medicine, and the Western mystical tradition, while dovetailing it with psychology’s understanding of personality, conditioning, thought processes, etc. What comes out the other side, while still psychotherapy, is an approach that is pretty much sui generis, if I do say so myself.
First, let me give you a little bit about my personal evolution. (I promise to be brief.) When I received my PhD in clinical psychology 35 years ago, I was traditionally trained, though I also picked up additional training in hypnotherapy and neuropsychology along the way. I began my career in community mental health, but five or six years down the road I became restless. While people were getting “better” under my care, it seems that something truly basic was missing. Assuming that private practice would allow me more freedom of expression in my therapy, I tried my hand in a couple of practices. While I did find this less restrictive, I left each practice after a couple of years, feeling that each one wasn’t the right practice for me. I eventually left psychotherapy altogether for a while, doing a stint as a researcher, co-directing a multi-state project on HIV and hemophilia. (I’m mentioning this part of my professional history to establish my bona fides as a “real” psychologist) Anyway, at this time my inner urgings could take it no longer, and I went to school to become a massage therapist, specifically an Asian-style bodyworker. I had always felt that emotional difficulties had roots in all levels of the being, not only in the mind. The body and spirit were also important. I had seen too often how a person’s mind could set up blockages and defenses to safeguard the emotional disorder’s existence. There had to be a way around that, I believed, and that way lay through accessing those other spheres through bodywork and energetic techniques.
Here’s where I began my own practice (in 1993), with my wife (Candida Maurer) joining me before long. I was finally able to explore change and healing in my own way. Picking up more training in Chinese medicine and herbalism, Reiki, Healing Touch, Bach Flower Essences, and other disciplines helped to round out my skill set. I combined all this with my long-term study in Western mysticism (with its incredible tools of Tarot and Qabalah), a school of thought that I had pursued since high school. Additionally, spending over 15 years working with The Builders of the Adytum (B.O.T.A.) formalized and immeasurably deepened my understanding of the Western Mysteries, while also accelerating my spiritual development and practice. All of this continues to inform and refine my therapeutic process today.
So, what does a session with PsychoSpiritual Energetics look like? The choice of interventions depends on several factors, including the over-arching reason someone is being seen, their salient problem of the day, and what my clinical intuition tells me might be useful. The reasons people come to see me vary from anxiety or depression, to trauma resolution or the stress of dealing with a chronic illness. These reasons span any and all of the four spheres of the physical, emotional, mental, and spiritual. At any rate, a typical session starts with some discussion of a person’s current situation, such as how they are feeling that day, or if they have experienced any changes in symptoms or presenting problem. After catching up, I have the person lie on my massage table.
I begin table work with a repair/reconnection of the person’s hara line. This is a line of energy that connects each of us to Heavenly and Earthly energies (to use the Chinese medical terms). Then I assess the chakras and make energetic corrections to any that aren’t functioning up to snuff. Not only does this prepare the ground for any work to follow, but it also serves as an assessment of the person’s energy field, giving clues as to what may need attention that day. The main part of the work involves a variety of techniques, depending on the situation at hand. Chakra and energy meridian balancing, bodywork interventions, Reiki and Healing Touch techniques, visualizations, therapeutic dialogue, hypnosis, meditations, and other interventions may be used. I end virtually every session with an energy technique of my devising called Re-Integration of the Tree of Life, which is profoundly relaxing and healing all on its own. A final assessment of the hara line and the chakras, and the session is over. By the way, I explain these interventions in more detail in another post here.By the way, I don’t believe that I do all the work, by any stretch. The person being worked with is actively involved in the process, often via homework assignments such as meditative exercises, visualizations, examination of beliefs, and the like.
The results of these sessions are at times a bit mysterious. People return for follow-up and mention that they feel better somehow, that things aren’t as dire, that they have changed their way of relating to others, etc. What made the difference? I’m not always sure specifically, as there is a complex, energetic interaction going on during the sessions. Also, there is the effects of the person’s carefully fulfilling any homework assignments given. Nevertheless, the changes are genuine, deep, lasting . . . and often, quite painless. Now, I’m not claiming that this is some miraculous, never-fail process. After all, nothing works 100% of the time. Yet, it works a large percentage of the time, with a wide variety of problems. It seems to be, in part, the balancing the energies of the body and clearing away any blockages that interfere with the system’s natural affinity for that balance. It often places the individual in a position of being able to function in a more productive and effective way.
This post serves only as an introduction to my approach. Please call Eastwind or email me to find out more. | {
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4,352 | EASYMAX® Diabetes Care positions himself to maximize the convenience of usability in glucose monitoring application. Due to this doctrine, we are dedicated to develop alternative solutions in order to assure patients living healthy with diabetes in an easy way.
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History
EASYMAX® are available in 23 countries from Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran, Sri Lanka, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Turkey, Greece, Netherlands, Uruguay, Chile, Nicaragua, and USA . | {
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4,353 | Download a copy of our report card comments that you can print and use as a guide for completing your report card comments | {
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4,354 | New research accidentally conducted by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has discovered that vaccines activate the “moron” genes that normally lie dormant in human beings. Once activated, these “moron genes” cause individuals to lose higher brain function and the ability to question false information fed to them by doctors, drug companies and the media. This, in turn, results in even more people pursuing repeated vaccines, further causing expression of the moron genes, over and over again, until their brain function collapses to the level of a raw vegetable… otherwise known as a “voter.”
Because of their disastrous effects on higher brain function, these vaccines are now being called “Moron Vaccines.”
Moron Vaccines contain all the usual ingredients of flu vaccines and MMR vaccines, including methyl mercury, aluminum, formaldehyde and DNA fragments from diseased monkey organs. (This is truly what’s found in other vaccines…)
But Moron Vaccines have one ingredient that’s slightly different. As Dr. All Proffit, a leading vaccine patent holder, explained, “Moron Vaccines are much like regular vaccines, except instead of taking diseased material from infected cows and monkeys, we take brain cell samples from existing morons which are easy to find among our colleagues. We then weaken those brain cells to make them even more moronic, and then we inject them into infants and children, mixed with a bit of mercury to make sure it targets the neurological system for maximum effectiveness.”
The result? As Bill Gates explains, “Billions of children each year are being saved from IBFD.” IBFD is short forIntelligent Brain Function Disorder.It is an affliction affecting hundreds of millions of people each year, causing them to achieve dangerously high levels of cognitive function that causes them to ask inappropriate questions about vaccines such as, “Why have vaccines never been tested against non-vaccinated children?” Or, “Why do vaccines cause some children and teens to collapse into autism, comas or death?” Or, “Why don’t flu vaccines actually prevent flu symptoms in 99 out of 100 people who receive them?”
Those questions have no place in today’s medical system, where the correct answer to every disease is — as doctors are routinely taught — “More vaccines!”
“The population is too intelligent for its own good,” Dr. Proffit added. “The only way to keep people in line with the expectations of Big Government, Big Pharma and America’s top employers such as McDonald’s and Wal-Mart is to increase the moron density in America through a determined, long-term vaccination program carried out with the help of doctors and government medical authorities.”
To financially support that program, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) is investing over fifty billion dollars to roll out Moron Vaccines on a global scale. “This will help ensure that more people buy Microsoft products,” explained Gates. “Because if they regain higher brain function, they might be tempted to run Linux instead.”
The FDA granted approval to the Moron Vaccines based on the scientific clinical trial data provided by the maker of the vaccines, most of which was, believe it or not, fabricated by morons. “This is why the data are so consistently reliable,” explained the company CEO. “When you’re studying Moron Vaccines, who better to offer an experienced perspective than an actual moron posing as a research scientist?”
The FDA was influenced in its decision to approve the vaccines by the CDC, which recently warned that America was “suffering from an epidemic of critical thinking” that threatened the future of the U.S. government, the Federal Reserve, and the vaccine industry in particular. The source of this epidemic has been traced to Rep. Ron Paul, of course.
“People who think for themselves are a threat to the U.S. government, and they are causing problems at airports, too,” said DHS secretary Janet Napolitano. “That’s why we’ve partnered with the FDA to make sure that those suffering from Intelligent Brain Function Disorder are offered ‘treatment’ at every opportunity.”
As part of that government treatment program, IBFD screening centers are now being erected at the airports, sports stadiums and Wal-Mart stores. Interestingly, Wal-Mart stores have so far found exactly zero people at their stores who suffer from Intelligent Brain Function Disorder. Apparently, all Wal-Mart shoppers are already cured. (http://naturalnews.tv/v.asp?v=5A4B5…)
The TSA announced it would no longer hire anyone suffering from IBFD and would only hire workers after they have been injected with the Moron Vaccine. “Is is very important that TSA agents have achieved the lower IQs necessary for them to carry out their jobs of molesting air travelers,” explained TSA head John Pistole explained. “We cannot have our agents suffering from moments of cognitive awareness while they’re touching your junk. People who work in government security are better off if they simply do what they’re told without asking intelligent questions or citing the Fourth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, which is a highly complex collection of sequential words that none of us can decode anymore thanks to the Moron Vaccines.”
Moron Vaccines are now mandatory in medical schools, where they are given to would-be doctors are part of an indoctrination ritual. They’re also mandatory in public schools, where children are being educated just enough to be obedient workers but not enough to actually question what role they’re playing in the grand consumerism economic raping of the planet in the name of corporate profits.
Walgreens stores are offering Moron Vaccine Gift Cards so that you can give the gift of lower brain function to a friend or family member. If grandma is acting up again, a vaccination targeting her higher brain function may be just the ticket to a joyful, loving family picnic. That “Grandma is staring off into the distance again” look is actuallyfamily affection, remember.
Many nursing homes and retirement centers are even thinking of switching from their current model of pharmaceutically abusing patients into a tolerable state of human vegetation to the new model of just vaccinating them instead. “It’s so much easier with the Moron Vaccines,” explained one nursing home director. “Pills required patient consent, but vaccines can be given to patients in their sleep, and when they wake up the next morning, or at least the ones that do, they’re like a whole new person… quiet, introspective and no longer argumentative.”
The Moron Vaccine is such a success that even President Obama chimed in on the issue. “Moron Vaccines help keep America strong by making sure people don’t ask too many questions about the coming economic collapse,” he said in a recent press event. “If we can manage to vaccinate the entire population, then we can probably keep the Medicare and Social Security Ponzi schemes going a few years longer, and that protects all of us in Washington from a popular revolt like the one we saw in Egypt! The Middle East is witness to the violence and destruction that can take place when populations are allowed to contemplate higher ideals such as freedom or liberty,” Obama said. “Moron Vaccines keep people comfortably numb in their lower brain functions, where they can dutifully serve the interests of the State.”
So don’t miss out on the Moron Vaccines! They’re available free of charge at any U.S. post office. The government is also offering a special discount called, “Don’t buy one, get one free!” for those who can’t do math because they graduated from Madison, Wisconsin public schools — “where education is ALWAYS secondary.”
Note: This satire article is pure fiction. If you didn’t know that by now, you have probably already taken the Moron Vaccines! Please turn yourself into the nearest TSA human resources office for possible placement within the Department of Homeland Security. | {
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4,355 | America's attacks on Afghanistan could spell the end of the Taliban. Few will mourn a regime whose thugs throw acid in women's faces. But will what follows them be better?
Oct 8th 2001
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The Taliban will fight
TALIBAN leaders have vowed to “fight to the last breath”. It may come to that, at least for the regime. Religious fervour is a powerful weapon, but no match for cruise missiles and B-2 bombers that can take off from the American mid-west, fly all the way to Afghanistan, re-fuel in mid-air and keep bombing. America's prime objective is to kill or capture Osama bin Laden and destroy his terrorist bases. While American forces are in the country, however, they might also topple the regime that harboured him.
The Taliban's prospective demise could lead to a less miserable Afghanistan. The country has been at war since the Soviet invasion of 1979. Its people are impoverished; the state barely exists. Under the Taliban, it became the hub of a movement to purge Muslim lands of western influence through terror, and to impose Islam in its most rigid form.
What kind of government might succeed the bearded fanatics? One candidate is Afghanistan's 86-year-old former king, Muhammad Zahir Shah, who took his crown in 1933 and lost it in a palace coup 40 years later. Zahir Shah says he does not intend to restore the monarchy. But he is willing to return to Afghanistan to rally the widespread loyalty he commands around a new dispensation. On October 1st the main opponents of Taliban rule agreed in Rome, where the ex-king lives in exile, to form a 120-member “supreme council”. This in turn may convene a Loya Jirga, a traditional gathering of tribal elders and other notables, last called in 1964, for the purpose of choosing a head of state and a transitional government. The agreement includes the United Front, more popularly known as the Northern Alliance, the only serious armed opposition to the Taliban regime, whose leaders are keen to take advantage of the American bombardment to march into Kabul.
AP
The former king greets a former subject
Agreement between the king and the Northern Alliance is encouraging. It harks back to an earlier and more harmonious notion of Afghan identity. The former king, like most of the Taliban, is a member of the Pushtun, a people, also called Pathans, who constitute about half the population. The Northern Alliance consists mainly of smaller groups such as Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras, who share the Shia Islam of Iran: that the king speaks Persian rather than Pushtu is reckoned a point in his favour.
But the king is not acceptable to all Afghans. Nor are all his supporters acceptable to each other. And the Taliban will not go quietly. According to the News, a Pakistani newspaper, they were convening gatherings of their own, before the American bombs began to fall, to rally the support of important Pushtun tribes.
In Pakistan, meanwhile, many people view the American attack on a Muslim nation with horror. Pakistani intelligence chiefs, who helped the Taliban seize power in the first place, are decidedly uncomfortable at the rise of the Northern Alliance, which they regard as a tool of threatening foreign powers, especially Russia and Iran.
America's apparent support for the alliance also worries backers of the king, especially Pushtuns. The alliance includes figures with unsavoury histories, such as Abdurab Rassul Sayauf, a fundamentalist leader who some believe first invited Mr bin Laden to Afghanistan. Support for the ex-king could evaporate if Afghans come to see him as a tool of American interests. In short, Afghans are far from united.
Not such fun in the Taliban-free zone
In the quest for consensus, the main ally is desperation. You can see it in Faizabad, provisional capital of the state ruled by Burhanuddin Rabbani, head of the Northern Alliance. Mr Rabbani is a gentler ruler than the Taliban. He lets women work, and girls go to school. With a population of 100,000, Mr Rabbani's fiefdom boasts the only television station in the entire country. Enlightened, perhaps, but still pitch-dark at night. Since the electricity went off ten years ago, the town's 1,000-odd television sets must be hooked up to generators or car batteries.
The only airport is a crudely laid Soviet military airstrip. There are no postal connections with the outside world, no public transport, no mains water, no newspapers, no banks, no public library, no theatre, cinema or museum, and no paved roads. Heating is by firewood, brought by donkey from the fast-dwindling forests. There are 600 telephones, connected to a 60-year-old manual exchange. The government, let alone the public, has no access to the Internet.
AP
Grim all around
The economy barely functions. Change $100, and you get a carrier bag full of money. Salaries are tiny—the operator of the city's telephone exchange, an important person, makes $20 a month. Hafiz, a 13-year-old refugee who shines shoes in the bazaar, does a bit better, supporting his family on a dollar a day.
Three years of drought have stricken agriculture. A nearby district, Rogh, has lost 60% of its population. There is malnutrition, tuberculosis and malaria. Yet tens of thousands of people are fleeing war and hunger for the relative prosperity, believe it or not, of Faizabad.
Holding out
For the past five years the Northern Alliance has been fighting the Taliban, largely unsuccessfully, on its own. The alliance's troops are mostly foot soldiers, fierce and skilful but without much formal training, armed only with light weapons and lacking air support. “We can take ground but then the Taliban come and bomb us back,” said one senior military figure.
This could all change now that the world's only superpower is involved. The Northern Alliance claimed hundreds of defectors even before the attacks; that number should now increase. But the alliance's biggest weakness is in its leadership. There is no commander to match the stature and effectiveness of the Alliance's assassinated military chief, Ahmad Shah Masoud. The precarious unity of the past few weeks could fall apart, as have past attempts to unite the anti-Taliban forces.
EPA
The rudderless Northern Alliance
The Northern Alliance may be an important part of the attack on the Taliban. But victory will also require a southern strategy to mobilise the mainly Pushtun populace around such Taliban strongholds as Kandahar. American air power will be crucial.
Filling the vacuum
The Americans will doubtless want to get out once they have achieved their aims. But there is a danger that they could thereby create a dangerous vacuum. This has happened before. When the Soviet-backed government fell in Kabul, Afghanistan's capital, lawless potentates stepped into the breach, making the Taliban's harsh rule seem a welcome relief, at least at first. Responsibility for avoiding a second instalment of “warlordism” rests in part on the United States and its allies, in part on the United Nations, and in part on the frail shoulders of the king. It is unclear whether all will rise to the challenge.
The first requirement is a framework that makes allies rather than competitors of Afghanistan's anti-Taliban forces. This will require a common command structure for the Northern Alliance and the southern forces, and an agreement on just how far each can go. It is a job for the king's men, but, says a senior diplomat, “If America wants Afghan allies, it should be encouraging this.” There must also be a mechanism for co-ordinating Afghan irregulars and foreign support.
The need for force will not end with the toppling of the Taliban. Mr bin Laden must be caught: besides him, an estimated 5,000-20,000 Arabs and other foreigners in Afghanistan who share his ferocity may have to be captured or killed. Peacekeeping will require western money, advice and, possibly, a multinational force, probably including soldiers from some Muslim countries. This force would be more palatable if the repatriated ex-king invited it in.
A nation to build
The United States has said that it will not engage in “nation-building”. Yet inattention could be disastrous. Although the transitional government selected by the Loya Jirga will, if all goes according to plan, be formally in charge, it will have to rely on international aid to rebuild Afghanistan's shattered institutions.
When the battle ends, international help will also be needed to reconcile competing ethnic and religious groups and to win the support of Afghanistan's six neighbours for a new government. The first task may begin with an internationally monitored census, to establish who the Afghans really are and, after 23 years of war, where they are. In the inevitable squabbles among ethnic groups over spoils and political power, international bodies can be the referee.
Afghanistan will be asked to reassure its neighbours about the future. Iran, having overthrown its own shah in 1979, is reluctant to see one restored next door. Pakistan fears that any Afghan government it does not control will be a tool of India and a stirrer-up of nationalism among its own Pushtuns. One reassuring gesture would be the recognition by Afghanistan of the Durand line, the porous border between Pakistani and Afghan Pushtuns, which Pakistan has long sought in vain.
The Afghans must choose their own future. Will it be one their neighbours, and the West, will like? It could be, but only if the Afghans see that what's good for the world is good for them.
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The impacts of volcanic eruptions show that dimming the sun can reduce temperatures. Taha Raja / 500px / Getty Images
Amazon is helping researchers look into what would happen if we tried to lessen the impacts of the climate crisis by blocking the sun.
Specifically, the online retail and tech giant is lending its Amazon Web Services computer processors to run 30 models for the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and solar radiation management nonprofit SilverLining on what the Earth’s climate might look like between 2035 and 2070, as Gizmodo reported Wednesday. In some of those models, humans have responded to rising temperatures by slightly dimming the sun.
“There are real risks in not knowing what would happen in the model world where sunlight is dimmed,” Gizmodo’s Brian Kahn wrote of the development. “There’s real value in democratizing data access. Including a scenario on Amazon’s servers, though, also opens the door to some unsettling questions. Techniques to lower the amount of sunlight reaching Earth’s surface are comparatively cheap when you’re the world’s richest (or second richest, depending on the month) person.”
Solar geoengineering has long been a controversial climate solution. It has the potential to cool the atmosphere, and this has happened historically when emissions from volcanic eruptions have dimmed sunlight, as MIC reported. However, scientists are concerned it could have other harmful consequences like disrupting weather patterns or fomenting storms.
Another concern is that it might be pushed by corporate entities like fossil fuel companies that have a vested interest in finding a climate solution that doesn’t rely on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Climate scientist David Keith argues in favor of researching the idea, but says it should be a compliment to emissions reductions, not a replacement.
In a 2019 study, he found that using solar geoengineering to halve the temperature increase caused by doubling carbon dioxide emissions would not worsen climate extremes. But other studies have shown that relying on dimming the sun to offset all human induced warming would have harmful consequences, Axios reported at the time.
"If people are thinking this is a get out of jail free card, a technological fix it means we don’t need to cut emissions, then they are mistaken,” Keith told Axios. “Or to be harsher: delusional."
Whether Amazon is a dubious partner in this type of research is less clear. The company has made major climate commitments, including a promise to be net zero by 2040. However, MIC noted that its carbon footprint has increased every year since 2018.
That said, it is important that Amazon is helping NCAR and SilverLinings to conduct their climate modeling using cloud computing. Using the cloud could help scientists store more data sets, have more control over how much computing power they need and save time on setting up the modelling process, Gizmodo explained.
“Cloud computing has started to reach the point where it could contemplate supporting workloads like this,” SilverLining executive director Kelly Wanser told Gizmodo. “And so you have this inflection point where the underlying technology is sophisticated enough, and so the question is, can you break the adoption impasse and see if you can get this stuff running on the cloud? And then what happens if you do?”
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EPA Releases First-of-Its-Kind Report on Food Waste
Paige Bennett
1h
Food
Food discarded by markets in a dumpster in New York City. Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
In the U.S., more than one-third of food produced goes to waste. While these organic compounds may seem harmless to toss in a landfill, food makes up 22% of waste in landfills and emits greenhouse gases, namely methane, as it rots. For the first time, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has released a report detailing just how much of an impact the country’s food waste has on climate change.
The report, From Farm to Kitchen: The Environmental Impacts of Food Waste, notes the environmental impacts of wasted food. In its entirety, the report focuses on land use, water use, energy use, application of fertilizers and pesticides, and emissions.
For example, one year’s worth of wasted food has the same amount of greenhouse gases as 42 coal-fired power plants — and that’s not counting the methane emissions generated after the food is discarded. The amount of water and energy that goes into producing one year’s amount of food waste could supply 50 million homes. The study also found that the amount of land used to produce food that is lost or wasted each year amounts to 140 million acres, roughly the size of all of California and New York.
“As the United States strives to meet the Paris Agreement targets to limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, changes to the food system are essential. Even if fossil fuel emissions were halted, current trends in the food system would prevent the achievement of this goal,” the report states. “Globally, food loss and waste represent 8 percent of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (4.4 gigatons CO2e annually), offering an opportunity for meaningful reductions.”
The report acknowledges, too, that this food waste could instead go a long way in increasing food security for millions of people. Research shows that the amount of food wasted in the U.S. each year has enough calories to feed 150 million people annually. Currently, it’s estimated that about 38 million people in the U.S. face food insecurity each year.
“Food insecurity isn't driven by scarcity, it’s a distribution issue,” Shannon Kenny, an author of the report and the senior advisor on Food Loss and Food Waste at the EPA, told Natural Resources Defense Council. “If we fed everyone in the country fully and there was no food insecurity, we would still have food waste. We need to start looking at an array of solutions — prevention solutions, not just rescue solutions.”
Despite pledging to cut food loss and waste in half by 2030, the U.S. is far from reaching its goal. As such, the EPA created the From Farm to Kitchen report in hopes of inspiring policies and individual change to minimize food waste.
This initial report will be followed by The Environmental Impacts of U.S. Food Waste: Part 2, which will focus more on different waste management options for food waste, such as composting, and their impacts on the environment.
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home products
4 Best Sustainable Rugs of 2022 [Nontoxic & Eco-Friendly]
Tiffany Chaney
01 December
Reviews
Lorena Canals
Rugs add a cozy aesthetic to the home, but they can also contribute to toxin exposure if you’re not careful when shopping around. How do you find the best sustainable rugs in a world where almost everything is mass produced with questionable chemicals involved?
There is a lot to consider in the search for a nontoxic rug you hope was ethically made. That’s especially true in a time where we are reevaluating our environmental impact every day. We rounded up four of the best sustainable rugs for any area of your home, from your living room to your outdoor space. Read on to learn more.
Best Sustainable Rugs: Our Recommendations
Best Overall: Safavieh Handmade Flatweave Jute Area Rug
Best Cotton Rug: Lorena Canals Washable Rug
Best Runner: Chardin Home Runner Rug
Best Outdoor Rug: Fab Habitat Recycled Plastic Outdoor Rug
Each product featured here has been independently selected by the writer. Learn more about our review methodology here. If you make a purchase using the links included, we may earn a commission.
Why Switch to a Sustainable, Nontoxic Rug?
Many people want to secure an area rug in the most affordable, fastest and easiest way. However, that often leaves your choices limited to rugs that are most likely not sustainably or ethically made.
Most ordinary new rugs and carpets contain harmful chemicals called volatile organic compounds, or VOCs. They can off-gas for up to five years, emitting VOCs in your home and causing short- and long-term health issues including headaches, dizziness, liver and kidney damage, and even cancer in animals and humans. An eco-friendly rug choice avoids these adverse health effects.
You may also wonder why you need a special cleaner filled with questionable chemicals for a rug. In some ways, you end up spending more money over time on a synthetic rug that ends up in the landfill.
By choosing home decor products made from sustainable materials, you can make a positive impact and promote a kinder and healthier planet.
Full Reviews of Our Top Picks
Best Overall: Safavieh Handmade Flatweave Jute Area Rug
Safavieh
Safavieh is a trusted name in natural rug making that has been around for over 100 years. Its handmade flatweave jute rug collection contains size and shape options ranging from 3-by-5-foot area rugs to 5-by-6-foot ovals to 9-by-12-foot runners. The rug is handwoven, and the beige color and traditional weave of sustainably-harvested sisal and seagrass make it a classic option for any space.
Customer Rating: 4.6 out of 5 stars with over 600 Amazon ratings
Standout Review: “These rugs are absolutely awesome… They're both easy on the eyes and the feet. We have a round one in the entryway and an oval one at the bottom of the stairs… They are easy to vacuum and sweep, combining pleasing aesthetics with functionality and durability.” — Alison via Amazon
Why Buy: Safavieh is known for its high-quality yet affordable products. The flatweave jute rug is beautifully handwoven and provides a classic, minimalist look to any area of the home.
Buy Now
Best Cotton Rug: Lorena Canals Washable Rug
Lorena Canals
Lorena Canals’ washable cotton rugs are made with a base of 97% recycled cotton and use only natural dyes in the coloring process. They’re handcrafted by artisans in India and can give a warm yet modern touch to your home. This particular rug measures just over 5.5 by 8 feet, but there are other size options available.
The company’s RugCycled program utilizes textile leftovers from the production of its cotton and wool rugs, helping Lorena Canals’ overall process become less wasteful. Plus, every purchase helps a child in North India attend school.
Customer Rating: 3.8 out of 5 stars with under 10 Amazon ratings
Standout Review: “Taking 1 star away because by no means it can be washed in a regular washer machine… Now do I like this rug? I LOVE IT! It is worth the trip to the laundromat.” — Ann via Amazon
Why Buy: If you’re looking for something you can throw in the wash after a spill or accident, this is one of the best sustainable rugs to consider.
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Best Runner: Chardin Home Runner Rug
Chardin Home
Chardin Home collects cotton rags from different factories and upcycles them into multicolor rugs. No two rugs are exactly the same, though the company makes every effort to best match them if you buy more than one of the same kind. The most popular size is this 2-by-7-foot, but the rug options span from 2-by-5 feet to up to 8-by-10 feet. The rugs are also reversible and long-lasting.
Customer Rating: 4.6 out of 5 stars with almost 1,500 Amazon ratings
Standout Review: “With this rug, suddenly everything goes together beautifully! … I have an 8-year-old, two dogs (5 pounds and 40 pounds), and a cat. I’ve had this rug for a bit, and it has held up so well.” — Lauren W. via Amazon
Why Buy: This affordable, colorful runner is reversible and withstands your pets while being healthy for them. It’s one of the best sustainable rugs for narrow spaces.
Buy Now
Best Outdoor Rug: Fab Habitat Recycled Plastic Outdoor Rug
Fab Habitat
Made from recycled plastic straws, this rug by Fab Habitat is perfect for outdoor spaces. Some people also use these indoors (I personally use an outdoor rug under my bed). The rug is fade-resistant and stain-deterrent. The material also means the rug will never be threatened by moisture.
This 5-by-8-foot rug comes in several eclectic and oceanically-colorful designs from jodhpur blue to monochromatic teal and a more practical blue. At an affordable price, it helps save both the planet and your purse.
Customer Rating: 4.6 out of 5 stars with over 1,100 Amazon ratings
Standout Review: “This rug lives up to its reputation. We just moved to Florida, and it rains almost daily since we got here. This rug doesn’t hold water, and it feels smooth under your feet.” — Katelyn via Amazon
Why Buy: The U.S. city-by-city ban on plastic straws started around 2018, but they still overtake landfills and take ages to decompose. A recycled plastic straw rug helps provide one solution to this while being stylish, stain-deterrent, fade-resistant and easy to clean. Just shake it out and hose it down.
Buy Now
How to Choose the Best Sustainable Rug
There are a few factors to consider when purchasing the best sustainable rug for your home:
Natural fibers: What material is the rug made out of? When looking for nontoxic rugs, choose natural fibers like organic cotton, jute, wool and sisal. Agave sisalana is the botanical name for sisal, which is native to southern Mexico. Many fruit plants also make cozy natural textile materials in place of genetically modified cotton.
Material harvesting and manufacturing: Was the material ethically harvested? Was the rug sustainably made? Is it an ethically made rug? Was the rug treated with any chemicals?
Cost: A handmade rug understandably costs more than a mass-produced one. However, you should also shop around and stay within budget.
Style: Many natural fiber and sustainable rugs are varied and unique in design. Have a look in mind when shopping for an organic rug to ensure you will be happy with the aesthetic.
Note that some natural fibers, like jute, can shed and may tend to unravel lightly in some areas over time. That’s the nature of the material.
Frequently Asked Questions: Best Nontoxic Rugs
How do you know if a rug is toxic?
A rug’s surface can consist of natural fibers. However, many don’t consider that the rug's backing and underlay padding could contain toxic materials. All parts of the rug should be produced with natural materials. Unfortunately, you may also find hidden toxins in the form of formaldehyde, stain deterrent treatments and flame retardants on the surface of the rug.
Are jute rugs environmentally friendly?
Yes, jute rugs can be very environmentally friendly. Jute is a sturdy natural fiber that many consider to be one of the most eco-conscious materials out there. Jute comes from a tropical plant and is both recyclable and biodegradable. Jute fibers are spun into durable threads to create such products as twine, mats and rugs.
Are handwoven rugs ethical and sustainable?
It is ethical to purchase from a craftsperson who used their skills and traditional practices to thoughtfully make a beautiful and sustainable rug. However, many products that are labeled “sustainable” can still be produced unethically and illegally via child labor and human rights violations. A good resource to check is Amnesty.org, which recently discovered human rights violations by larger U.S. companies in the production of “sustainable” palm oil.
Research each product and manufacturer across various platforms, always checking reviews and non-biased news sources. Where possible, purchase ethical rugs from craftspeople directly. Local maker collectives and arts organizations are great places to start.
How do you clean a natural fiber rug?
Drenching a natural fiber rug with wet shampoo or steam can cause damage and discoloration. Spot-clean natural fiber rugs with a mild detergent, or use club soda for acidic stains.
Routinely sweep or vacuum your rugs lightly, using a rug beater as appropriate. You can also buy a dry cleaning powder that is compatible with natural fiber rugs. Simply sprinkle this powder on the rug and vacuum it up. Take more heavily soiled rugs to a green dry cleaner if care instructions allow.
With fair labor practices and ethical standards in place, a rug made of natural fibers is a much more eco-friendly option than a rug made with toxic chemicals. Be wary of companies that greenwash their marketing with sustainability claims they fail to deliver on.
Where possible, consider handcrafted rugs when shopping for a rug for your home. It’s much easier to verify sustainability, and you support a talented individual and the local economy with your purchase.
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renewable energy
New Canadian Facility to Produce Renewable Fuel From Air
Tiffany Duong
3h
Business
Carbon Engineering's pilot plant in British Columbia. Carbon Engineering
In British Columbia, Canadian clean energy company Huron Clean Energy and its partner Carbon Engineering Ltd. have plans to create a revolutionary fuel for cars, airplanes and ships.
Recently, they’ve begun engineering on a game-changing, large-scale commercial facility in Canada that will produce this usable fuel out of air.
Powered by clean hydroelectricity, the plant will use Carbon Engineering’s breakthrough Direct Air Capture and AIR TO FUELS™ technologies to electrolyze water, splitting it into hydrogen and oxygen, reported CTV News. The hydrogen will then be combined carbon dioxide sequestered from the air to produce hydrocarbons that can be used in place of traditional petroleum-based fuels, the news report explained.
This is “clean fuel,” Huron Clean Energy notes on their website.
Additionally, according to Carbon Engineering, their signature carbon sequestration technology works at the “megaton-scale” to remove carbon dioxide from the air.
“Unlike capturing emissions from industrial flue stacks, our carbon removal technology captures carbon dioxide (CO2) – the primary greenhouse gas responsible for climate change – directly out of the air around us,” the company website emphasizes. “This can help counteract today’s unavoidable CO2 emissions, and remove the large quantities of CO2 emitted in the past that remains trapped in our atmosphere.”
Their new proposed fuel synthesis facility will have a production capacity of up to 100 million liters of ultra-low carbon fuel each year, Gasworld reported. When burned, this renewable, “near carbon-neutral” energy source will produce up to 90% fewer emissions than conventional hydrocarbons. It will be able to be used as a replacement fuel or as an ingredient in fuel blends. Developers note that it will work as a replacement or blend for traditional gasoline, diesel and even jet fuel, Globe Newswire added. As a blend, it will lower the carbon intensity of current fuels. Critically, the new renewable fuel will work in existing airplanes, ships, trucks and cars without the need to modify the vehicles. That’s why this fuel solution provides "a pathway to significantly reduce transportation emissions," Globe Newswire said.
"If we can make the fuel carbon neutral, our vehicles, our ships, our planes become carbon neutral," said Carbon Engineering CEO Steve Oldham, reported CTV News.
Additionally, because the fuels will provide clean liquid energy for transport sectors that are difficult to electrify, they’ll actually serve as an important complement to electric vehicles rather than as competition, Globe Newswire added.
According to Gasworld, construction is expected to begin in 2023 with operations targeted to commence approximately three years after that. The B.C. government is contributing $2 million in funding towards the preliminary engineering and design of the facility, and preliminary feasibility studies have begun, CTV News reported.
The project is expected to make a significant contribution to the B.C. Government’s CleanBC target of 650 million liters of renewable and low-carbon fuel production by 2030, Globe Newswire added.
“This innovative, world-leading project will support our economy’s shift away from fossil fuels while creating new jobs and opportunities for British Columbians,” The Honourable Bruce Ralston, Minister of Energy, Mines and Low-Carbon Innovation told Gasworld.
According to Carbon Engineering, they and their partners around the world are currently working to deploy Direct Air Capture facilities like the new British Columbia plant to capture more than one million tons of carbon dioxide each year. This is the equivalent work of approximately 40 million trees, the company noted.
“We believe humanity can solve climate change,” Carbon Engineering says on its website. “Getting there is a challenge, but also an imperative.”
Tiffany Duong is a writer, explorer and inspirational speaker. She holds degrees from UCLA and the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School. As a contributing reporter at EcoWatch, she gives voice to what's happening in the natural world. Her mission is to inspire meaningful action and lasting change. Follow her on Twitter/Instagram/TikTok @tiffmakeswaves.
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6 Natural Phenomena You Probably Haven’t Heard Of
Linnea Harris
4h
Popular
A Brocken spectre above the village of Hayfield in the Derbyshire Peak District. John Finney Photography / Getty Images
We’re all familiar with rainbows, tornados, and shooting stars. Maybe you’ve been lucky enough to see Aurora Borealis, or even bioluminescent waves rolling in from the ocean. Our planet exhibits such awe-inspiring natural phenomena wherever we look: at its highest peaks, deepest ice formations, or right in our own backyards.
Here are a few amazing environmental spectacles that you probably haven’t heard of.
Brocken Spectre
A Brocken spectre in the Central Balkan National Park, Bulgaria. Maya Karkalicheva / Moment / Getty Images
In German folklore, a man walked in the misty mountains, the sun behind him and clouds of fog below, looking down on the haze, he saw a giant, shadowy figure, ringed by a rainbow halo that inspired such terror that he jumped off the mountain to his death.
The Brocken spectre – also called the Brocken bow, mountain spectre, or a mountain glory – luckily presents no real danger to unsuspecting hikers, but has inspired awe in outdoor enthusiasts and artists alike; Carl Jung, C.S. Lewis, and Charles Dickens have all written about this mountain phenomenon. Named after Brocken, the highest peak of the Harz Mountains in Northern Germany where it was first documented, the Brocken spectre appears when the sun is low behind someone – often mountain climbers – who have climbed high enough to look down upon the clouds or mist. The low sun projects their human shadow onto the fog, encircled by a rainbow ring created from the refraction of light within the water droplets.
The spectre is so breathtaking in part due to the seemingly massive size of the human shadow: an illusion borne of the distance it lies from the person, and the way it falls on water droplets of various depths. All reference points are also obscured by the mist, which makes it hard to judge the proportions and size of the shadow.
Airline passengers might also see the Brocken spectre from their windows: the shadow of the plane projected onto the clouds and encircled by a rainbow halo.
Volcanic Lightning
A longer exposure of this eruption was created by combining 3 sequential short exposures taken one after the other. The result is as if a longer exposure had been done, resulting in a spectacular eruption photo emphasizing the glowing lava and volcanic lightning. Mike Lyvers / Getty Images
Flowing lava and billowing ash are expected traits of volcanoes, but what about lightning?
These bolts of electricity occur during the early stages of explosive volcanic eruptions where ash, gases, rock, and lava are expelled very quickly. When lava – molten rock developed in the Earth’s mantle or crust – erupts on the surface, ash and soot often join, creating the fodder for volcanic lightning displays.
Lightning is formed in two different places within the volcano: in the clouds of ash close to the ground, and in the high plumes of smoke. Ground-level lightning occurs when the billions of particles of ash and smoke rub together, creating enough friction to transform electrons in the atmosphere into static electricity. The higher, stratospheric lightning is generated similarly to regular lightning; as ash and water vapor rise in plumes out of the volcano, ice begins to form. Like typical lightning, where waves of warm and cold air produce electric charges, so do the collision of ice crystals in these ash plumes.
Mt. Vusuvius’ famous eruption 2,000 years ago is the first recorded instance of volcanic lightning, and was seen when the volcano erupted again in 1944. Some of the best observations of volcanic lightning by scientists occurred in 1980 when Washington State’s Mount St. Helen erupted continuously over several months. It’s also been viewed at Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, Sakurajima in Japan, Mount Augustine in Alaska, Taal in the Phillipines, and many other volcanoes around the globe.
Sun Halos
Ignacio Palacios / Stone / Getty Images
You don’t need to visit a volcano or climb a mountain to witness breathtaking natural phenomena. Sun halos are a common sight, and can be viewed from your own backyard.
These ghostly white or pale rainbow halos around the sun are created by the interaction of light and ice crystals in the atmosphere. When light from the sun or moon passes through the hexagonal ice crystals in cirrus or cirrostratus clouds, they act as a prism, breaking visible light into its individual component colors. This refraction makes the colors visible to the human eye.
No two halos are alike. A neighbor looking at the same halo from a different vantage point – therefore seeing the crystals from a different angle – might observe entirely different colors. But, no matter how beautiful the halo, make sure not to look at the sun directly.
Cirrus clouds are very high – typically 20,000 feet or more – and usually come before a storm, so sun halos are often a sign that bad weather is approaching, such as rain or snow.
Mammatus Clouds
Derek Bruff / Flickr / CC BY-NC 2.0
Imagine letting thick, viscous slime drip slowly through a screen, and you’ll have a decent picture of what mammatus clouds look like in the sky.
These bulging, pouch-like protrusions reach downwards from the underside of clouds, and can extend for hundreds of miles. The word “mammatus” comes from the Latin mamma, meaning “breast” or “udder,” which the clouds certainly resemble.
Unlike normal clouds, mammatus are formed by sinking air rather than rising, and are made primarily of ice. They usually form alongside cumulonimbus clouds, with their unstable masses of air. Turbulence within cumulonimbus creates the bulges on the underside of the anvil – the flattened part of cloud – as it descends.
Mammatus are generally associated with bad weather, like hail, rain, or snow; they’re more rarely seen on clouds other than cumulonimbus that produce no rain, or on clouds of volcanic ash.
Desert Roses
Large desert rose stone formation and rose flowers in the flower bed next to the road in the Tunisian desert. Anna Chaplygina / iStock / Getty Images Plus
Flowers can grow in the desert, but they’re not always plants; some are made of sand.
Desert roses form over tens of thousands of years (which is very short in the geological world), resulting in an aggregate of disc-shaped gypsum or baryte crystals that include sand grains. The crystals are flat and fan out like petals, giving them a flower-like appearance.
The environmental conditions must be just right for desert roses to grow. Gypsum is an “evaporite,” meaning it forms during the evaporation of water; inflowing water containing calcium sulfate is balanced with the water flowing out by evaporation, leaving these floral formations behind. The “petals” even take on a rusty color if iron oxides are present.
The roses are usually only a few inches wide, but can grow to be three feet tall and over 1,000 pounds. They’re found in desert areas around the world, including many countries in and around Northern Africa, Germany, Spain, Australia, and Mexico, among others. In the U.S., they can be found in Arizona, Texas, and Oklahoma.
Permafrost Explosions
In 2014, the first of about 20 confirmed gas emission craters was discovered accidentally by a helicopter flying overhead. The craters are the result of huge gas explosions in the permafrost – a layer of perpetually-frozen ground – in West Siberia, concentrated on the Yamal and Gydan Peninsulas. One such crater is 100 feet deep.
The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth, and scientists have long warned about the effects of climate change on permafrost. Temperatures in the region were nearly 11ºF higher than usual in 2020, and many of these craters were found after such unusually warm summers, suggesting that heat could have led (at least partially) to the explosions
As temperatures rise, permafrost in Arctic regions melts, deforming the Earth’s surface and releasing methane and other greenhouse gases – created from the decomposition of organic matter once frozen in the ice – into the atmosphere. These methane gases also build up beneath the ground, creating pressure and forming hills in the 3-5 years before the explosion. The permafrost’s “caps” become weaker as they thaw, and eventually reach a tipping point when the gas breaks through.
These explosions are expected to continue as permafrost keeps thawing. Geologists are studying the phenomenon and creating models to predict explosions, especially those that might occur near critical infrastructure and populated areas; one has already occurred close to a major pipeline, and another near the Obskaya-Bovanenkovo railway.
Linnea graduated from Skidmore College in 2019 with a Bachelor's degree in English and Environmental Studies, and now lives in Brooklyn, New York. Along with her most recent position at Hunger Free America, she has interned with the Sierra Club in Washington, DC., Saratoga Living Magazine, and Philadelphia's NPR Member Station, WHYY.
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plastic waste
U.S. Is World’s Biggest Producer of Plastic Waste, Report Finds
Cristen Hemingway Jaynes
5h
Oceans
Plastic pollution keeps accumulating in the ocean. lindsay_imagery / E+ / Getty Images
The United States is the world’s leader in the generation of plastic waste, nearly all from fossil fuels, and must develop a plan to curb its destructive impacts on the health of oceans and marine wildlife, concludes a new report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
The first recommendation of the committee of academic experts who wrote the report is that the U.S. stop producing so much plastic, especially non-reusable materials or plastics that are not “practically recyclable,” Inside Climate News reported. The report also proposed a national cap on the production of virgin plastics.
“The developing plastic waste crisis has been building for decades,” the study said, as reported by The Washington Post. “The success of the 20th century miracle invention of plastics has also produced a global scale deluge of plastic waste seemingly everywhere we look.”
“[T]he committee was able to conclude that while only 4.3 percent of the world’s population lives in the United States, the nation was the top generator of plastic waste, producing 42 million metric tons in 2016, with per person plastic waste generation at 287 pounds,” reported James Bruggers of Inside Climate News.
“The fundamental problem here is that plastics are accumulating in the natural environment, including in the ocean,” said Margaret Spring, Monterey Bay Aquarium’s chief conservation officer and chair of the report committee, said in a telephone interview, Inside Climate News reported. Plastics are “pervasive and persistent environmental contaminants,” Spring said, and the problem is “going to continue unless we change — we have to change. And that’s just the truth.”
“A lot of U.S. focus to date has been on the cleaning it up part. There needs to be more attention to the creation of plastic,” Spring said, as reported by The Washington Post.
“We suggest that one way to reduce plastic waste would be to make less plastic,” oceanographer and report co-author Kara Lavender Law said, as reported by The Associated Press. “Recycling cannot manage the vast majority of the plastic waste that we generate.”
“The panel provided a menu of potential ways to fix the plastics problem, starting with ‘national goals and strategies to cap or reduce virgin plastic production,” as Seth Borenstein of the Associated Press reported.
“Virgin plastic is plastic that starts from feedstock that hasn’t been used — namely, non-recycled material. The problem, the report said, is that ‘virgin plastic prices are artificially low due to fossil fuel subsidies, therefore virgin plastics are more profitable to produce’ — and U.S. manufacturing of them continues to increase,” Borenstein reported.
In Congress’ recently passed $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, there was division concerning plastics reform, with industry-friendly lawmakers supporting “advanced recycling,” as Inside Climate News reported.
“Environmental advocates find the industry’s touting of ‘advanced recycling’ a form of greenwashing — making an official stance seem more environmentally friendly than it actually is — and say it is continuing the nation’s reliance on fossil fuels,” reported James Bruggers of Inside Climate News.
“When you reduce plastics production, there are less air toxins and greenhouse gases,” which are often a problem in or near low income communities or communities of color, said former Environmental Protection Agency regional administrator and president of environmental group Beyond Plastic, Judith Enck, as reported by Inside Climate News. Enck added that low recycling rates add to landfills and incinerators and that these are likely to be located in these communities.
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vegan
Could Mushroom-Based Leather Be High Fashion’s Next It Material?
Olivia Rosane
21h
Business
In March, the material entered the high fashion world for the first time as a Hermès Victoria bag. MycoWorks
Could mushrooms create a vegan leather that doesn’t harm animals or contribute to the climate crisis?
In the past year, high fashion has turned to a material called mycelium, which can be grown from fungi in weeks but has the look and feel of calfskin. Experts think that working with mushrooms could give designers a more sustainable relationship with waste.
“I am excited to support the fashion world in its efforts to become more sustainable,” biologist Merlin Sheldrake, who wrote Entangled Lives: How Fungi Make Our Worlds, Change Our Minds, and Shape Our Futures, told The Guardian ahead of the Business of Fashion Voices conference Thursday. “There is so much potential in fungi to overcome some of the problems we face.”
Mycelium is another word for the threads that make up the vegetable part of mushroom-producing organisms, according to designboom. However, biomaterials company MycoWorks has developed and patented a material called fine mycelium.
“Fine Mycelium engineers mycelium cells as they grow to create three dimensional structures that are densely entwined and inherently strong,” the company website explains. “Fine Mycelium is a patented process to grow materials with superior strength, durability and performance.”
In March, the material entered the high fashion world for the first time as a Hermès Victoria bag.
“MycoWorks’ vision and values echo those of Hermès,” Hermès artistic director Pierre-alexis dumas told designboom at the time. “A strong fascination with natural raw material and its transformation, a quest for excellence, with the aim of ensuring that objects are put to their best use and that their longevity is maximized.”
Another company called Bolt Threads is also using mushroom-based leather to work with Stella McCartney on a handbag and with Adidas on various products, according to The Guardian.
The rise of the new material comes as there is growing awareness of the environmental harms caused by animal agriculture. The livestock sector is responsible for 14.5 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, and a recent report found that major fashion brands including Coach, Prada and Adidas are sourcing their leather from tanneries and manufacturers linked to Amazon deforestation.
The rise of alternative materials reflects a real desire from consumers to buy more sustainable and ethical products, sustainability blogger Sara Anne Leeds told Input.
“It’s a company and it exists for profit,” she told Input of Hermès’s foray into vegan leathers. “If its supply chain had been operating fine with real leather, the only reason it would change its leather is because consumers were demanding sustainable alternatives.”
This movement towards mushroom-based leather is so far starting with high fashion.
“We are working with luxury fashion first because they are ahead of the curve when it comes to sustainability,” MycoWorks CEO Dr. Matt Scullin told The Guardian. “These are brands which are in a position to think big and to think long term.”
However, he said partnerships with more affordable brands are “on the radar.”
If that happens, though, there is a risk the sustainability factor could decrease. While plant-or-fungi-based materials are preferable to animal or plastic-based leather options, they still encourage the production and consumption of a steady supply of new goods, Leeds pointed out.
“If consumers spend $4,000 on a Gucci bag, they’ll keep it around,” she told Input. “But with a recycled label, consumers may think they don’t have to keep it for long, thinking the product will have a low impact [on the environment] once put in a landfill.”
She said the most sustainable leather option was to buy real leather second hand.
Sheldrake, however, thought the use of mushroom materials themselves could teach designers and consumers a new relationship with waste.
“If fungi didn’t do what they do, our planet would be piled metres high in the bodies of animals and plants,” he told The Guardian. “We have been trained as consumers to think in terms of a straight line whereby we buy something, use it and throw it away. Fungi can inform thinking about fashion on lots of levels. This is about material innovation, but it’s also about the culture of making endless new things, and what we can learn from thinking in terms of nature and of cycles instead.”
Correction: A previous version of this article stated that Adidas and Stella McCartney were walking together on a project with Bolt Threads, in fact they are both working on different projects with the company.
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solar energy
Solar Panel Recycling 101
Can solar panels be recycled?
Karsten Neumeister
23h
Renewable Energy
Voyagerix / Getty Images
Despite challenges to growth from the pandemic, the U.S. solar energy market set another record with 19.2 GW of solar installed in 2020. That’s well over 50 million solar panels. Over the next 10 years, the Solar Energy Industries Association projects that nearly 350 GW will be installed, more than 18 times the amount of solar installed in 2020. That means more than 1 billion solar panels will be actively collecting solar energy throughout the U.S. alone over the next decade.
This pace of growth is tremendous — and great news for the environment. However, we at EcoWatch won’t deny that solar panels do have an impact (albeit a nominal one when compared to that of oil drilling, fracking or coal mining). One of the most common challenges surrounding solar energy is the amount of waste that these panels will produce after their 25-year lifespan.
In order to avoid an onslaught of e-waste accompanying our rapid solar development, scientists are developing ways to recycle solar panels, minimizing their environmental impact. Entrepreneurs and economists alike are also eyeing the huge financial value that a practical recycling method would offer.
So, can solar panels be recycled? The short answer is yes, but the process needs refining. Here’s what we know.
Why Recycle Solar Panels?
Recycling solar panels offers much more than a minimized environmental impact. Here are a few other reasons recycling solar panels is so important:
Conserving Finite Materials
A number of the materials within a solar panel are non-renewable resources; copper, silicon, gallium and indium may be abundant, but they’re still finite. The solar boom has already placed a huge strain on efforts to acquire these materials, and we’re readily seeing forecasts of severe copper shortages over the next decade.
Recapturing these materials from solar panels presents an opportunity to ease supply chain issues and lower the need for new materials, which in the long run will only lower the cost of solar further.
An Emerging Market
Solar panel recycling offers huge potential for emerging businesses — forecasts show the solar panel recycling market has the potential to grow by $238.30 million from 2020 to 2024, and the market’s growth momentum will accelerate during the forecast period and thereafter.
How to Recycle Solar Panels
When talking about how to deal with solar panel waste and sustainable end-of-life processes, it helps to understand the different physical elements of solar photovoltaic panels. Most solar panels are made with the following basic components:
Metal frame (usually an aluminum frame)
Glass or plexiglass (usually 75% of the panel)
Crystalline silicon solar cells
Wiring (usually copper wiring)
For the purposes of this article, we’ll be examining monocrystalline and polycrystalline silicon PV panels, which are by far the most common types of solar panels.
Though aluminum, glass and copper are all recyclable materials, recycling a solar panel isn’t as simple as dropping it off at your local recycling plant. The materials within the panels must be separated and recycled separately, which can be a complex process. Solar panels are also layered with polymer sealing, which can contain chemicals like ethylene-vinyl acetate (EVA), complicating the process of recycling glass. If the encapsulant can be removed from the glass, the glass can be recycled.
But what about recycling the silicon solar cells? Though it’s possible, it’s a little more complicated than recycling basic metals and glass.
Silicon solar cells are typically derived from quartz, a mineral made from the two most abundant elements on earth: oxygen and silicon. This quartz must be purified, a process that varies by manufacturer, in order to end up with silicon crystals pure enough for modern solar cells. However, similar to common plastic, pure silicon degrades slightly when recycled. This means that its quality will suffer with each subsequent use of the material.
So, where does this leave us?
As it stands today, there are two common methods for recycling solar panels: mechanical and chemical recycling.
Mechanically Recycling Solar Panels
The more simple form of recycling solar panels, mechanical recycling involves dismantling the solar panel and separately recycling its parts: glass, metal, copper wiring and silicon solar modules.
In recycling facilities, these various materials are crushed into small pieces and broken down into a material similar in consistency to sand. From there, the material is sent through a magnetic separation process that removes and isolates the metals within. These valuable materials can be reused to make glass, roadways, insulation and more.
The most advanced forms of mechanical recycling can recover 99% of raw materials at a pace of one solar panel per 40 seconds. Methods currently in use, such as First Solar’s recycling process, are capable of reusing up to 90% of the semiconductor material and 90% of the glass in its modules. These facilities are still limited, however, and most solar customers don’t have access to them at this point.
Chemically Recycling Solar Panels
Chemical (or thermal) recycling uses chemical treatments and heat to delaminate a solar panel, separate its chemical components and recapture the pure silicon within it. Research in this arena shows promising results, yet efficiency on a large scale still lacks. Additionally, the production and necessary treatment of potentially harmful gases associated with this recycling process still present challenges to its commercial viability.
Solar Panel Reuse & Refurbishment
We usually cite the lifetime of solar panels at 25 years, as most warranties only cover up to that mark. However, the vast majority of solar panels can be used longer than 25 years, though their efficiency suffers over time. As a result, most of the e-waste associated with solar panels comes from old panels that still produce energy, just at a lower level.
This leads to another question: Can solar panels be reused or refurbished? Certainly, this method is the most economical due to how little processing would be required relative to mechanical, chemical and thermal recycling methods.
Not every solar installation will require the best solar panels on the market, so reused, low-efficiency panels do offer solutions for small-scale solar needs, like off-grid systems, solar chargers, lights for street signs and other applications that don’t necessarily require new panels.
But what about the refurbishment of defective or broken panels? Companies like Rinovasol specialize in this type of solar panel refurbishment, extending life cycles through a process of defect analysis, refinishing and recoating with a polymer of their own development. Rinovasol’s process is garnering international attention, and it is shown to extend solar panel lifetimes by about 10 years.
Companies That Will Help You Recycle Your Panels
Though promising methods of solar recycling, refurbishment and re-use are in development, they still exist on a very small scale in the U.S. However, there are companies taking the first steps into this new area of the solar industry and may offer a convenient way for you to sustainably dispose of your solar panels.
First Solar
With facilities in the U.S., Germany and Malaysia, First Solar’s recycling process achieves high recovery rates (around 90%) and offers a convenient, effective disposal method for your solar PV modules.
We Recycle Solar
We Recycle Solar provides comprehensive solutions for manufacturers, installers and solar contractors needing large-scale solar panel disposal and PV recycling. The company’s approach allows home and business owners to cash in on any residual value of damaged panels while complying with regulations regarding panel removal.
RecyclePV
RecyclePV offers a simple process for removing and disposing of unwanted solar panels. Achieving a recovery rate of 90%, RecyclePV shows a great deal of promise for solar recycling. If it can ramp up its scale in the U.S. solar market, RecyclePV may be a leading solution to solar waste management problems.
The Future of Solar Recycling: A Closed Loop?
Have you ever heard the term “circular economy?” Well, solar panel recycling offers the perfect example to demonstrate its feasibility and benefits.
A circular economy is a system of closed loops in which raw materials, components and products lose as little value as possible. Though still in the early stages, top solar companies like SunPower are leading the charge toward a circular solar economy, designing solar panels that can be perpetually recycled. This would close the loop on the materials involved in the manufacturing process, lowering the costs and impact of solar power systems.
It should be noted that SunPower manufactures the most efficient solar panels on the market, demonstrating that sustainability (when baked into the process) has little to no effect on the price or quality of solar products.
Final Thoughts
SunPower, First Solar and other leading companies show us that closing the loop on the solar economy is possible (dare I say practical, too?). So what’s stopping the rest of the nation’s top solar companies from doing the same?
Sadly, the U.S. still lags far behind in its clean energy policies. The federal government has zero regulations in place requiring solar manufacturers to design closed-loop products, has zero laws barring the disposal of solar panels in landfills and offers zero support for solar recycling programs, despite its ambitious goals for solar development nationwide.
The government can’t be the sole driver of change, however. With any luck, our nation’s solar manufacturers will follow SunPower’s lead and realize the benefits of developing technologies that lessen solar’s growing impact.
Karsten Neumeister is a writer and renewable energy specialist with a background in writing and the humanities. Before joining EcoWatch, Karsten worked in the energy sector of New Orleans, focusing on renewable energy policy and technology. A lover of music and the outdoors, Karsten might be found rock climbing, canoeing or writing songs when away from the workplace.
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Great Pacific Garbage Patch Becomes an Ocean Habitat for Coastal Species
02 December
plastic pollution
Great Pacific Garbage Patch Becomes an Ocean Habitat for Coastal Species
Olivia Rosane
02 December
Oceans
Anika Albrecht of Ocean Voyages Institute, on a 2020 expedition collecting plastic in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre, where she served as chief mate. Ocean Voyages Institute 2020 Gyre Expedition
The North Pacific Subtropical Gyre, or the “Great Pacific Garbage Patch,” stretches for more than 610,000 square miles between California and Hawai’i. The gyre hosts around 79,000 metric tons of microplastics, nets, buoys and bottles. And, in a surprising turn, coastal life.
Scientists writing in Nature Communications Thursday have found coastal animals like anemones, hydroids and shrimp-like amphipods living on plastic collected from the open ocean.
“Floating plastic debris from pollution now supports a novel sea surface community composed of coastal and oceanic species at sea that might portend significant ecological shifts in the marine environment,” the study authors wrote.
Coastal species hitching rides across the open ocean is nothing new. This is, after all, how many plants and animals reach islands in the first place. However, in the past these animals could only travel on biodegradable rafts made from natural materials like trees and seaweed. That meant that coastal species could move from land mass to land mass, but not find a permanent home on the waves.
Coastal podded hydroid Aglaophenia pluma, open-ocean Planes crab and open-ocean Lepas gooseneck barnacles colonizing a piece of floating debris. Smithsonian Institution
That changed with the emergence of plastic pollution. There are currently 150 million metric tons of ocean plastic, and eight million metric more tons join them every year. The understanding of how this might provide new habitats for life emerged following the 2011 tsunami in Japan, which dumped about five million tons of debris into the ocean. Researchers discovered coastal species thriving on that debris when it washed up on the North American Pacific coast and the Hawaiian Islands. These species didn’t just survive for years while travelling more than 6,000 kilometers (approximately 3,728 miles), they also grew and reproduced in transit.
“This discovery demonstrated that anthropogenic debris, which was largely composed of floating plastics, provided long-lived, habitable rafts and exceeded our expectations of coastal species survival at sea,” the study authors wrote.
To investigate this further, Linsey E. Haram and Gregory M. Ruiz from the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center teamed up with University of Hawai‘i at Manoa oceanographers Jan Hafner and Nikolai Maximenko and plastic-collection nonprofit the Ocean Voyages Institute.
youtu.be
First, Hafner and Maximenko created a model that predicted where plastic was most likely to turn up in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch. Then, the Ocean Voyages Institute used that information to collect a record 103 tons of plastic and other debris from the garbage patch. They sent the debris to Haram in her lab, where she analyzed them and found several coastal species.
The permanent presence of coastal species in the open ocean is a big deal.
“The open ocean has not been habitable for coastal organisms until now,” Ruiz said in a press release emailed to EcoWatch.
The researchers called the new communities of life they discovered on the garbage patch neopelagic communities (neo for new and pelagic for open ocean). And they still have many questions about what this means for ocean life. For one thing, there are already ecosystems that live in the open ocean, which the coastal arrivers could potentially disrupt.
“Coastal species are directly competing with these oceanic rafters,” Haram said in the press release. “They’re competing for space. They’re competing for resources. And those interactions are very poorly understood.”
Further, the new species could travel on the plastic to other coasts, including vulnerable islands and protected areas, once again potentially competing with the species already there.
The researchers do not know how widespread these communities really are and whether they have found a home in the other four garbage gyres. But they do represent a new way that marine plastic pollution impacts marine life.
“The issues of plastic go beyond just ingestion and entanglement,” Haram said in the press release. “It’s creating opportunities for coastal species’ biogeography to greatly expand beyond what we previously thought was possible.”
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renewable energy
Renewables Likely Cost Less Than Previously Thought, Study Finds
Paige Bennett
02 December
Renewable Energy
A wind energy park near Brandenburg, Germany. Patrick Pleul / picture alliance via Getty Images
As renewable energy technologies scale up, their cost can be hard to estimate. A new report from the University of Oxford’s Institute of New Economic Thinking notes that the cost of renewable energies may be less than previously thought.
According to the study, predicted costs for renewables have likely been overestimated, as evidenced by the true costs of these energies, such as solar power, falling short of early pricing model predictions again and again.
The World Economic Forum explains that renewable price forecasts didn’t account for infrastructure cost improvements. For example, early pricing models estimated that solar power prices would fall about 6% per year from 2010 to 2020. In reality, costs dropped 15% each year.
This is important, because the initial investments of renewable energies are often a sticking point for making the switch from fossil fuels. But as the new report shows, renewable energy prices aren’t as high as anticipated. As the technology improves and scales up, the prices will continue to drop, too.
From 2010 to 2019, solar electricity prices decreased from $378 per MWh to $68 per MWh. In the same time frame, onshore wind costs decreased by 40%, and offshore wind costs decreased by 29%. For coal, the most widely used source of electricity globally, prices fell from $111 to $109 during this time.
“More than half of the renewable capacity added in 2019 achieved lower electricity costs than new coal,” the International Renewable Energy Agency said in a separate report. “New solar and wind projects are undercutting the cheapest of existing coal-fired plants.”
The INET report authors note that rapid expansion of renewables is key to the best cost-savings. Through their research methods, they found that a fast transition to renewable energy could lead to a net savings of trillions of dollars compared to fossil fuels. If renewable energy continues to expand at the current rates for the next 10 years, the authors predict we could reach a near-net-zero-emissions energy system in 25 years.
“In response to our opening question, ‘Is there a path forward that can get us there cheaply and quickly?’ our answer is an emphatic ‘Yes!’” the study says. “The key is to maintain the current high growth rates of rapidly progressing clean energy technologies for the next decade. This is required to build up the industrial capabilities and technical know-how necessary to produce, install and operate these technologies at scale as fast as possible so that we can profit from the resulting cost reductions sooner rather than later.”
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Feeling Hopeless About the Climate? Try This 30-Day Action Plan
The Revelator
02 December
Climate
The climate crisis requires bold action from governments and corporations, but that doesn’t mean individuals have to sit on the sidelines. Ben White / Unsplash
By John R. Platt
A recent poll found that people today, especially younger people, feel helpless when it comes to fighting climate change.
Here’s the thing: That’s exactly how polluting corporations want you to feel. The more people believe their actions don’t matter, the more they find themselves rolling over and accepting the status quo.
Yes, solving the climate crisis requires bold action from governments and corporations, but that doesn’t mean individuals have to sit on the sidelines. Not only do our actions add up and influence others, we also have the ability to push for — and demand — systemic change.
And that push, importantly, can help turn our individual feelings of hopelessness around. Psychologists and climate activists tell us we can go from feeling helpless or hopeless about the future and toward a more positive, productive attitude just by taking a few steps forward.
Done correctly, these steps we take can also create a momentum for the future. As scientist Katharine Hayhoe wrote last month: “If we wait for someone else to fix the problem, we’ll never solve it. But when we raise our voices to call for change, when we take action together — that’s when we find that hope is all around us.”
With that in mind, we’ve created a simple action plan for the next 30 days. They include small steps we can take to advocate for bigger societal changes — and in the process remind us that the power for change lies in ourselves, too.
Start at the Top:
1. Submit a public comment on proposed federal rules or regulations. You can find opportunities to voice your support or concerns at regulations.gov. You might be surprised how few comments have already been submitted, or how much your voice might matter.
2. Write to your senator to demand action on climate — either in general or about a specific legislative action. (Find your elected officials’ contact information here.)
3. Write to your congressional representative with a similar request, perhaps one more tailored to your district. Remember, your voice as a voter counts 365 days a year, not just on Election Day.
Now Think Local:
4. Write to your mayor or other community leader about how you see climate affecting your region and encourage them to take action.
5. Write to your town parks manager and ask about their plans to keep green spaces open in the face of warming temperatures, wildfires and increased extreme storms.
6. Attend your local planning board meeting and speak out about any projects you feel don’t pass environmental muster. You can’t stop runaway development without getting in front of the people who make the decisions about what goes where.
7. Attend a school board meeting to support educators’ efforts to teach science (or, you know, to verify that they’re actually teaching it in the first place).
Next Up, the Corporations:
8. Write to a major corporation or retailer to offer feedback about their business models — for example, overpackaging. Can’t find a public email address? Sometimes it pays to take photos and share them on social media.
9. Take this a step further and sign on to support producer responsibility legislation.
10. Now strike closer to home. Write to a top employer in your town or county to ask about their climate policies or request they adopt more sustainable business practices. (The more specific, the better; it shows you know and understand their business and their role in your shared community.)
11. Ask your energy company about switching your account to renewable sources. The more customers who sign up to get their power from wind or solar, the better.
12. Hit ‘em in their stock portfolios. If you or your town, company, church, pension plan or friends have any investments in fossil fuels, intentionally or otherwise, divesting is a great way to send a message that profiting on destruction is no longer socially or financially acceptable.
Focus on Your Neighborhood:
13. Walk — or run! — around your neighborhood with a garbage bag or two to pick up trash and recyclables, then post what you find to social media. (This isn’t necessarily about shaming people; it’s a good way to show our effect on the environment.)
14. Attend a larger cleanup day in your area. Connect with local activists and organizations while you’re at it. You’re going to need people to talk to about all of this, so build your community as you go along.
15. Find a Little Free Library in your area and stock it with environmentally themed books. You never know who might find and read them. (Don’t have a Little Free Library near you? Talk to your local bricks-and-mortar library about setting up a display or webpage about their climate-related books and related materials.)
16. Ask how you can help an environmental justice cause in your area. We can practically guarantee some neighborhoods in your community suffer higher environmental burdens than others (if you don’t know of any, one place to start your search is the Environmental Justice Atlas). Find out how you can support existing efforts or create awareness. Oh, and if you’re in an area affected by these burdens, it’s OK to ask for help.
17. Attend a protest. Add your voice to a public event demanding action while meeting like-minded people. (Pro tip: Buy a reusable whiteboard instead of making new posters that will just end up in the trash.)
Game the Algorithms:
18. Share positive news. Fight the incentive for social media to focus on the stories and disinformation that makes people angry and tears us apart. The Earth Optimism and Conservation Optimism accounts are good places to start.
19. Follow a climate scientist on social media to amplify their voices. Check out Katharine Hayhoe’s “Scientists who do climate” list on Twitter for ideas (or just bookmark the whole list).
20. Review a green product you like and write about the qualities that you find worthy of praise. In the online commerce world we live in now, products (and businesses) live or die by five-star reviews. (You can also give negative reviews to products you find egregious, or those whose marketing claims amount to little more than greenwashing.)
21. Find climate-denying videos on YouTube (Tucker Carlson is a good start) and give them thumbs-down votes so fewer people get them in their recommendations. (Just don’t watch too long: That way lies madness.)
Keep Learning:
22. Ask your friends about their favorite energy-saving techniques. Do this online and you might end up with a lot of interesting suggestions that everyone can learn from. As Texas State University environmental studies professor Tom Ptak wrote recently, “When enough individuals make changes that lower daily household energy consumption, huge emissions reductions can result.”
23. Start or join an environmental book club so you’re up to date on the latest climate science or related issues (and can share with like-minded other readers). Here’s a list of recent books to get you started.
24. Write to your local media — either a letter for publication about an issue, or just a friendly note to a local editor or reporter to praise their climate coverage. (You could also suggest they do more to cover it.)
25. Donate or subscribe to environmental news. A thriving independent press serves as an essential watchdog against corporate malfeasance and government corruption.
26. Set up a Google Alert for a topic you’re passionate about. It can be as simple as “climate change,” a topic like “sea-level rise,” or more specific like “climate” and the name of your town.
27. Read up on a skeptic’s argument so you can debunk disinformation when you encounter it — which you will.
Think Longer Term:
28. Sign up with a voter-registration effort in your area, or a voter-motivation effort through a national organization like the Environmental Voter Project — or make a plan to volunteer on Election Day. (You’re registered to vote, too, right?)
29. Consider running for office or encouraging your friends to do so. The 2022 election is right around the corner, and too many races remain unopposed.
30. Donate to an environmental nonprofit to support the ongoing fight. Every dollar helps. You time matters, too, so if you can’t afford to give, there’s probably a good way for you to donate your time by making phone calls, sharing petitions, stuffing envelopes, or doing something that matches your particular skillset.
Wait, This Month Has 31 Days!
31. Take some time to reflect on the past month. What worked? What didn’t? What did you learn? What would you like to do again? What didn’t make it onto this list that you’d like to try? Another month looms around the corner, and the opportunities to make a difference are endless — even as the time to act grows shorter.
Reposted with permission from The Revelator.
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Developers Cancel Oregon Pipeline and LNG Export Terminal
The proposed Jordan Cove export terminal in Coos Bay, Oregon, would have been the first liquefied natural gas export terminal on the West Coast.
Climate Nexus
02 December
Energy
The north end of Jordan Cove in Oregon. Alex Derr / Flickr
Developers of what would have been the first LNG export terminal on the West Coast officially abandoned the project on Wednesday.
The project developers told FERC they are not pursuing construction of the Pacific Connector pipeline nor the Jordan Cove export terminal in Coos Bay, Oregon, because they were unable to obtain necessary state permits.
The move is a win for landowners, Tribes, and conservation groups across Southern Oregon who fought the proposed pipeline and export facility for 17 years.
The three-foot-wide, 229-mile-long pipeline would have carried methane-based gas from Canada to the Oregon facility where it would have been shipped to international markets. The at-least $8 billion cancellation is the latest of several LNG projects cancelled or delayed in the past year.
As reported by The Oregonian:
Stacey McLaughlin, a Myrtle Creek landowner whose property would have been traversed by the pipeline, said Wednesday she is “extraordinarily relieved” the developers are pulling out.
“I’m feeling an immense amount of relief. It has been a horrific nightmare, not just at the thought of the damage that they would do to our property but the damage they would do to the beautiful state of Oregon. And in the long run the cost to all of humanity for continuing on the path of fossil fuel,” McLaughlin said.
She said she’s hoping the decision is a sign of better things to come for the way the country moves forward on energy and climate issues.
For a deeper dive:
E&E News, The Oregonian, AP, S&P Global, OPB, POLITICO Pro, LAW360; LNG cancellations: Reuters
For more climate change and clean energy news, you can follow Climate Nexus on Twitter and Facebook, sign up for daily Hot News, and visit their news site, Nexus Media News.
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arctic
Rain Could Replace Snow in Arctic Decades Faster Than Previously Thought, Study Finds
Cristen Hemingway Jaynes
02 December
Climate
The sun sets as rain falls beyond floating ice and icebergs in Disko Bay above the Arctic Circle on September 4, 2021 in Ilulissat, Greenland. Mario Tama / Getty Images
As the climate continues to warm, rain will replace snow as the primary form of precipitation in the Arctic decades earlier than previously thought, according to research. This will have profound implications for the planet.
Snow still falls more frequently than rain in the Arctic, but the study suggests that will change. All the land and nearly all its seas will see more rain than snow before the end of the century if the Earth’s temperatures increase by three degrees Celsius. A global temperature rise of 1.5 to two degrees Celsius would still result in rain dominating the areas of the Greenland and Norwegian Seas.
“The transition from a snow- to rain-dominated Arctic in the summer and autumn is projected to occur decades earlier and at a lower level of global warming, potentially under 1.5C with profound climactic, ecosystem and socioeconomic impacts,” the scientists concluded in Nature Communications.
An analysis of the world's current policies by watchdog Climate Action Tracker showed that the planet is on track for a temperature increase of 2.7 degrees Celsius if countries follow through with their plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as reported by CNN.
“In the central Arctic, where you would imagine there should be snowfall in the whole of the autumn period, we’re actually seeing an earlier transition to rainfall. That will have huge implications,” research leader Michelle McCrystall of the University of Manitoba in Canada said, as reported by The Guardian. “The Arctic having very strong snowfall is really important for everything in that region and also for the global climate, because it reflects a lot of sunlight.”
The latest climate models showed that the central Arctic will become dominated by rain by the autumn of 2060 or 2070 if there is no reduction in carbon emissions, instead of by 2090, as earlier models had predicted. McCrystall and her colleagues found that the shift from snow to rain could be most pronounced in autumn.
“What happens if the Arctic doesn’t stay there,” McCrystall said, as reported by The Guardian. “You might think the Arctic is far removed from your day-to-day life, but in fact temperatures there have warmed up so much that [it] will have an impact further south.”
In August, scientists were stunned when rain was recorded on the summit of Greenland’s ice cap for the first time.
“Now all of a sudden, if you introduce liquid water into the picture and rainfall, there are a lot of engineering questions and things that could become really problematic for us in the future if this becomes a regular occurrence,” said National Science Foundation program officer, Jennifer Mercer, soon after rain fell on the summit of Greenland’s ice cap, as reported by The Washington Post.
The researchers called the implications, from melting permafrost to sea level rise, sped-up global heating and mass famine in the region’s reindeer and caribou populations, “profound.” Scientists believe that the quick Arctic warming could also be escalating floods and heatwaves in Europe, Asia and North America because of changes in the jet stream, according to The Guardian.
Cristen Hemingway Jaynes is a writer of fiction and nonfiction. She holds a JD and an Ocean & Coastal Law Certificate from University of Oregon School of Law and an MA in Creative Writing from Birkbeck, University of London.
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4,357 | I’ve been using rdiff-backup for my server backups along with mysqldump for the sql data for years now, as it gives me the ability to browse the increments on file system level and is extremely efficient and easy to use, both for local files and remote.
Here I share with you my script for your adaptation, along with showing you how to install rdiff-backup and some basic usage..
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4,358 | Coronavirus in Edinburgh: This is the ultimate positive playlist to listen to when working from home - Edinburgh Live
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Coronavirus in Edinburgh: This is the ultimate positive playlist to listen to when working from home
From modern songs such as 'Don't Start Now' by Dua Lipa, to timeless classics such as TOTO'S 'Africa' - here is the ultimate uplifting playlist
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Indigo StaffordJournalist
15:17, 7 APR 2020
Updated 16:28, 7 APR 2020
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The spread of coronavirus has led to most of us having to either self-isolate, or work from home, but that doesn't mean we can't still feel motivated.
While it can often be a challenge to remain positive in such an unprecedented time, here is a playlist which could improve your mood at home.
thortful.com have analysed Spotify data to reveal the ultimate positive playlist to keep you feeling upbeat.
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The data was collected by analysing playlists with ‘Feel good’ in the title. The top songs and artists from these playlists were than analysed and collated.
Here are the top 20 positive songs.
Rank Song Artist Score
1 Sunday Best Surfaces 95
2 Don't Start Now Dua Lipa 63
3 Mr. Blue Sky Electric Light Orchestra 55
4 I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Who Loves Me) Whitney Houston 48
5 Africa TOTO 47
6 Feel Good Inc. Gorillaz 46
7 Take on Me a-ha 45
8 Walking On Sunshine Katrina & The Waves 44
9 Circles Post Malone 41
10 Loving Is Easy Rex Orange County 41
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11 I'm Yours Jason Mraz 41
12 CAN'T STOP THE FEELING! Justin Timberlake 40
13 Pumped Up Kicks Foster The People 40
14 Blinding Lights The Weeknd 39
15 Brown Eyed Girl Van Morrison 39
16 The Less I Know The Better Tame Impala 38
17 You Make My Dreams Daryl Hall & John Oates 38
18 Happier Marshmello 37
19 Closer The Chainsmokers 37
20 September Earth, Wind & Fire 36
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Edinburgh now joint favourite for white Christmas as bookies shorten the odds
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Edinburgh police shut down street as forensic tent put up outside homes
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West Lothian Aldi to introduce new scheme for shoppers to get vouchers by doing one thing
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Two Edinburgh schools in top ten best in country according to Sunday Times list
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Cold Weather Payment update as DWP share tool to check if you're eligible
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Deaf Midlothian mum 'devastated' after £7,000 bike stolen from garden shed
MidlothianNicola Reid relies on the bike for socialising with friends as well as for taking her daughter out for rides. But most importantly she used it as her only means for exercise. | {
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4,359 | William Mckay, 50, who stays in north Edinburgh has said that he is still waiting for a council contractor to pay him compensation after one of their workers fell through his ceiling.
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By
Jacob FarrReporter
17:30, 19 OCT 2021
Updated 14:56, 20 OCT 2021
News
William Mckay, 50.
A council tenant with diagnosed terminal lung cancer has spoken of the immense emotional and financial stress that Edinburgh City Council and Everwarm have put him under.
William Mckay, 50, who stays in the Drylaw area, said that in 2019 council contractors from Everwarm had entered his home in order to install insulation in the attic.
But when workers turned up with no apparatus for emitting light, one of them fell through the ceiling and onto William’s bed.
The damage from the debris, insulation materials and other substances subsequently caused around £1,200-£2,000 worth of damage to objects within the home.
The terminally ill tenant was forced to replace sentimental items of significant value that belonged to his mother.
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The contamination from the debris on furniture and sentimental items was described as extremely harmful to Willie’s health by his GP.
But William, who also goes by Willie, said that Everwarm have passed him from pillar to post, and although there is agreement that damages should be paid, no money has been forthcoming. Although he does add that he feels as though the council are doing their best to chase the funds.
To make matters worse, Everwarm took 18 months to fix the original hole in Willie’s ceiling, and when they did, they forgot to fit a hole for a light bulb to hang from.
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Alongside this fiasco, Willie’s prized cream carpets were totally destroyed by a bungling contractor who dragged mud and debris throughout the house, as he had failed to lay down a sheet when carrying out repair works on the roof.
He is currently undergoing treatment for terminal lung cancer and the condition of his home has meant that he is not in the best place mentally and physically to deal with chemotherapy amongst other treatments.
On the issue he said: “I had to throw out pretty much everything in my bedroom, from ripping off blinds and ripping up carpets, to having to throw out items that belonged to my mother who recently passed.
“We had to replace almost everything and it had to be done out of my pocket. I’m currently investigating and treating my cancer. I live with one lung and my doctor wrote a letter detailing how dangerous it was for me to be living amongst all that dust and debris in my condition.
“For me that worker should never have been up in the attic with access to a torch or some light to ensure he was standing on rafters. I could not believe it when he came through the ceiling.
“I understand that Covid may have been a contributing factor in the delay to the roof being fixed but to leave someone in my condition for 18 months with the roof in that state was a joke. And when they did come to fix it they forgot to put a hole in for the light. So I had to ask a pal to come and fit one.
“Alongside this, you had the boy dragging muck all over my cream carpets because he never put down any sheets whilst doing the work.
“Someone in my condition should not have to deal with this level of stress. I need to be in as strong a position as possible for chemotherapy and to deal with the cancer.
“The council to their credit do appear to be chasing this up but every time we get onto their contractor we are just passed from pillar to post. I just want this sorted so I can stop worrying about the financial and emotional stress.”
An Edinburgh Council spokesperson said: “This has fallen below the standards of service we would expect from our contractors and we are sorry for the distress caused to Mr Mckay.
“As soon as we were made aware, we stepped in to advocate on his behalf and have helped Mr Mckay to reinstate his bedroom to a fit state by carrying out decoration remedial work.
“We are disappointed that the ceiling repair work wasn’t actioned within a reasonable timeframe by Everwarm and are now supporting Mr Mckay to receive fair and reasonable compensation from Everwarm as a result of the damage caused.”
A spokesperson for the Everwarm group said: “We can confirm that we are aware of the details of the case and we are currently working closely with Edinburgh City Council to reach a satisfactory resolution.”
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4,360 | Nestled in the heart of Silom, Bangkok, Dahra Beauty & Spa is the perfect retreat to indulge in relaxation and pampering. We offer an extensive variety of massages and spa treatments designed to sooth the mind and body, create a caring experience and provide the ultimate in luxury. First we slow your world down, then we revolve it around you…
Escape the stresses and strains of everyday life at your spa in Bangkok. We have created a cocoon of peace and tranquillity where you can relax, rejuvenate and revitalise. Our nine beautiful therapy rooms are enhanced by soothing music and delicate fragrances to create a truly heavenly hideaway.
The Dahra philosophy embodies the holistic approach of treating the mind, body and spirit: for us it is as much about the inner self as the outer self. Whether you select a Royal Thai Massage or an indulging Aromatherapy Massage, our wide range of massages and spa treatments combine the best of ancient and modern therapies with the finest quality ingredients and skin care advances to restore equilibrium to the mind, body and soul.
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Look better, Feel better. Sala Raj offers Thai Traditional Massage and Facial Treatment. Sala Raj welcomes you every day to enhance your personal well-being with facial treatment and a selection of Aroma Therapy treatments. Our Signature Massage will soothe your body and re-energize mind and soul.Our facial treatment will rejuvenate and hydrate your skin while smoothing your face at the same time.
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Nestled in the heart of Silom, Bangkok, Dahra Beauty & Spa is the perfect retreat to indulge in relaxation and pampering. We offer an extensive variety of massages and spa treatments designed to sooth the mind and body, create a caring experience and provide the ultimate in luxury. First we slow your world down, then we revolve it around you…
Escape the stresses and strains of everyday life at your spa in Bangkok. We have created a cocoon of peace and tranquillity where you can relax, rejuvenate and revitalise. Our nine beautiful therapy rooms are enhanced by soothing music and delicate fragrances to create a truly heavenly hideaway.
The Dahra philosophy embodies the holistic approach of treating the mind, body and spirit: for us it is as much about the inner self as the outer self. Whether you select a Royal Thai Massage or an indulging Aromatherapy Massage, our wide range of massages and spa treatments combine the best of ancient and modern therapies with the finest quality ingredients and skin care advances to restore equilibrium to the mind, body and soul. | {
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4,361 | From "potential grizzlies" to "Band-Aids on gunshot wounds," these are the quotes Education Week editors and readers found to be especially memorable or meaningful in 2017.
2017’s Top 10 Quotes on Education Issues
Here are 10 quotes from 2017 that Education Week editors and readers found to be memorable or meaningful. They reflect a mix of perspectives on a range of K-12 education topics. Some of the quotes below made news. Some just made us think.
Americans want great schools for their children … But for too many of our citizens, a different reality exists ... an education system flush with cash but which leaves our young and beautiful students deprived of all knowledge.
—President Donald Trump, in his inauguration speech, Jan. 20
In his first speech to the nation as president, Donald Trump described a public school system that spends big while getting poor results for students. The comments seemed like they might be the basis for a huge new federal school choice proposal, something Trump promised on the campaign trail, but never laid out.
I would imagine that there’s probably a gun in the school to protect from potential grizzlies.
—U.S. Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos, at her Senate confirmation hearing, Jan. 17
Betsy DeVos’ response to a question about whether guns belong in schools—later lampooned on Saturday Night Live—was a memorable part of a sometimes-rocky confirmation hearing. In the end, DeVos was confirmed with a historic tie-breaking vote from Vice President Mike Pence. Educators and policymakers continue to debate the merits of arming school staff.
HBCUs are real pioneers when it comes to school choice.
—U.S. Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos, at a meeting with leaders of Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Feb. 27
Betsy DeVos was pilloried for this comment, which implied a lack of understanding that HBCUs were founded in response to segregation. DeVos later clarified her statement. A longtime school choice advocate, DeVos has had trouble getting her choice agenda off the ground.
I can tell the attitude is more of a 'receive mode.' They're waiting to be told what they have to do, and that's not going to bring success to an individual child. You have to have teachers who are empowered to facilitate great teaching.
—U.S. Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos, describing teachers she met at Jefferson Middle School Academy in Washington, Feb. 16
After a visit to the school that was marred by protests, this comment from DeVos sparked major backlash from educators and became another bump in the rocky start to her tenure.
When all is said and done, a student offered an educational program providing 'merely more than de minimis' progress from year to year can hardly be said to have been offered an education at all.
—Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., in an opinion in the case of Endrew F. v. Douglas County School District, March 22
In a major decision expanding the scope of students' special education rights, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled unanimously that schools must do more than provide a "merely more than de minimis" education program to a student with a disability, a previous standard set by a circuit court.
You will be deported over my dead body.
—Alberto Carvalho, Miami-Dade schools superintendent, April 11
Alberto Carvalho was speaking to student Daniela Pelaez, a participant in the Obama-era program called Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals—or DACA—that has since been rescinded. Carvalho, a former undocumented resident, came to the United States from Portugal as a teenager and overstayed his visa.
We don't see teaching as a career. We see it as a calling. And this is exploited by the powers that be.
—Justin Ashley, award-winning teacher, June 2017
After suffering from burnout, Justin Ashley learned the keys to happiness and to becoming a better, more emotionally balanced teacher the hard way: through a trip to rehab. A survey released this year found teachers were feeling especially stressed, disrespected, and less enthusiastic about their jobs.
This is my island. My students need me.
—Isabel Rodriguez Santos, veteran teacher, Arecibo, Puerto Rico, Oct. 9
Hurricanes devastated communities in Texas and Florida in 2017, but no place was hit harder than Puerto Rico. Education Week traveled to the U.S. territory to see how educators, students, and their families were coping. They met Isabel Rodriguez Santos, a former Teacher of the Year who refused to take a teaching job anywhere else.
A good education should, inherently, cause us discomfort.
—Christina Torres, English teacher, in response to a Miss. district’s decision to remove To Kill a Mockingbird from a junior high reading list, Oct. 15
The Biloxi school district became the focus of a national outcry when it pulled the Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, and later reversed its decision. To Kill a Mockingbird wasn’t the only classic book to garner renewed attention this year, the works of Dr. Seuss drew criticism for culturally insensitive imagery.
I'm looking at the crisis that is affecting our young black men. It is a state of war. It is a state of emergency. If you're not attacking it like that, then you're essentially putting Band-Aids on gunshot wounds.
—Shaka Greene, Math teacher, Ron Brown Academy, Nov. 1
A three-part audio series from Education Week and NPR documented the first year at Washington D.C.'s first all-male public high school—one that’s grounded in love and holds students to high expectations. Shaka Greene was one of the black male educators at Ron Brown who felt strongly about the school’s groundbreaking approach.
BONUS: Here’s a little inspiration to take you into 2018: a quote from a well-known educator who had a comeback in 2017:
Take chances, make mistakes, and get messy.
—Ms. Frizzle, star of Netflix’s reboot of the beloved '90s Saturday morning cartoon "The Magic School Bus" | {
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4,362 | Last week, the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry, a scientific nongovernmental body, formally announced that four new elements will be added to the periodic table, rounding out the seventh row of the iconic chart.
The new elements are all classified as “super-heavy,” meaning they have more than 104 protons. They were created using particle accelerators and, like other super-heavy elements, exist for only a brief moment—as little as a fraction of a second—before decaying.
The elements are temporarily named ununtrium (element 113), ununpentium (115), ununseptium (117), and ununoctium (118). According to the IUPAC, “the discoverers from Japan, Russia, and the U.S.A. will now be invited to suggest permanent names and symbols.”
New elements can be “named after a mythological concept, a mineral, a place or country, a property or a scientist,” according to the IUPAC.
This is the first time elements were added to the table since 2011, reports the Wall Street Journal. And ununtrium (113) was discovered at Japan’s Riken Institute, making it the first element to have been discovered in Asia.
“The chemistry community is eager to see its most cherished table finally being completed down to the seventh row,” professor Jan Reedijk, the president of the inorganic chemistry division of IUPAC, said in a statement.
Unfortunately, as science teachers know, textbooks often don’t keep up with the times. So it could be quite a few years before students see that completed seventh row in their chemistry books.
Image: Kosuke Morita, of the Riken Nishina Center for Accelerator-Based Science, points at periodic table of the elements during a press conference in Wako, Japan, on New Year’s Eve. A team of Japanese scientists have met the criteria for naming a new element, the synthetic highly radioactive element 113, more than a dozen years after they began working to create it. —Kyodo News via AP
For more news and information on reading, math, and STEM instruction:
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Liana Loewus
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Liana Loewus is an assistant managing editor for Education Week who oversees news coverage of teaching and learning. | {
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4,363 | Completely Machinima 11.1 December 2021 – Machinima News - Completely Machinima on If You Thought Bitcoin was Bad, Wait Till You Get a Load of NFTs | {
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4,364 | The DataHub Engineering team provides a distributed platform for hosting datasets, complete with managed data stores, search, discovery, batch analytics and real-time stream processing capabilities. Our goals: ensure high quality content, which is indispensable to financial markets, is cataloged, standardized, discoverable, distributed and accessible in one place.
Who are you:
The ideal candidate is an innovative problem solver who enjoys working in multiple roles and thrives in a fast-paced, collaborative environment. You are curious, kind, continually learning, and happy to share what you learn. You enjoy pursuing complex issues to their root cause. You love distributed messaging, performance at scale, and engineering for reliability.
What's in it for you:
As a senior infrastructure engineer in the DataHub team, you will build a Kafka-based data pipeline infrastructure that scales to address needs of all financial datasets at Bloomberg. You will engineer for reliability, scale, performance, efficiency, observability and ease of use. This is an opportunity to engineer systems on a massive scale, and to gain valuable experience in distributed computing. Your impact will be at the heart of financial data at the most influential financial data company in the world. You'll be surrounded by people who are passionate about distributed computing, and believe that premier service is crucial to customer success. You'll get the chance to work with engineering teams across Bloomberg as well as opportunities to be a committer to open source.
You'll need to have:
7+ years of programming experience in Java/Scala or C/C++
Experience designing scalable, low latency services
Proficiency in Kafka, distributed messaging systems, Linux and performance tuning
Understanding of distributed systems, consensus algorithms, network programming, concurrency, Linux file systems, debugging
Experience in software instrumentation for monitoring and observability
BA, BS, MS, PhD in Computer Science, Engineering or related technology field
We'd love to see:
Kafka commit experience
Pride of ownership and quality in your work
A team player with a customer-focus
Any of your contributions to the open-source community
About Us: Meet the DataHub Engineering Team https://www.techatbloomberg.com/blog/meet-the-team-datahub-engineering / | {
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4,365 | In a joint statement Richard Torbett, Chief Executive of the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI) and Nathalie Moll, Director General, European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA), together representing the EU and UK pharmaceutical industry, said:
"We have always said that a deal is in the best interest of patients in the UK and the EU. This means ongoing collaboration in key areas including scientific research and cooperation in areas like medicines safety. We will now take the time to look at the detail to understand what it means for our members and the future of the pharmaceutical industry.
“Regardless of a deal, the end of the transition means there will be a significant change in how border and customs arrangements work come Jan 1st and companies have been working on contingency plans to mitigate any disruption. We will continue to do everything in our power to maintain the flow of medicines to all parts of the UK and the EU." | {
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4,366 | For full functionality of this site it is necessary to enable JavaScript. Here are the instructions how to enable JavaScript in your web browser.
Program & Registration
East Greenwich Little League Challenger Division
What is the Challenger Division?
The Challenger Division offers boys and girls ages 4 to 18 with physical and/or mental challenges the opportunity to participate in an organized game of baseball. Those over 18 and still in a program at school are welcome to continue on helping the Challenger Division as a buddy. The fundamental goal of the division is to give everyone a chance to play.
Annual Events and Fun Activities within the Program
EGLL hosted an end of year celebration with other area Teams, Athletes, Family, and Friends
We also attended the PawSox game and met some players
How does the program work?
A buddy is assigned to each Challenger Player and will be a boy or girl at least 11 years old. The buddy is either a player from East Greenwich Little league or a volunteer from within the local community.
The buddy is responsible for playing side by side with the Challenger Player and assisting them throughout the game. Activities include helping them play in the field, talking to them in the dugout, helping them hit, helping them get around the bases, and talking about the game after it is over.
What is provided?
Players receive team hats and uniform shirts, as well as reasonable accommodations to facilitate play.
Where/when are the games played?
The games are played on the regulation baseball fields of each of the participating Little Leagues in District 3. Challenger games are typically played one day during the week from May to July.
How many games are played?
This will depend on a variety of factors. The goal is to play at least 6 games during the season.
What does the program cost?
East Greenwich Little League does not charge registration fees for the Challenger Division. We use funds generated from our Sponsorship and Fundraising Committee to make this possible.
Can I volunteer?
Absolutely! The easiest way to help is by spreading the word about the Challenger Program. Assistance will be needed in the coordination of a variety of activities to help the program grow and succeed.
If you would like to volunteer, contact Howard Faunce at to see what opportunities are available to support the Challenger Divisions.
© 2021 SportsEngine, Inc. The Home of Youth Sports and EAST GREENWICH LITTLE LEAGUE (9458). All rights reserved. Visitor # 926,344
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4,367 | I have been using a few of the scripts from EGN and I had the best experience using and creating any page, program, changes to marketing plan in minutes.... Great scripts... The service through the years and so many scripts is has always been GREAT. Really great scripts, and best support, they respond in time and my issues are solved very fast. Great job, thank you EGN
Latest News
September 14, 2021:
egSuperMatrix - Advanced Network Marketing Software v1.8 is available
A new version of egSuperMatrix - Advanced Network Marketing Software is available.The current version is 1.8 and egSuperMatrix is getting better with improvement and new features such as: New feature: Multi membership type with unique configuration for each membership New feature: ePin for membership activation New feature: Regular Matrix for Free members network compesation plan New feature: Google reCAPTCHA - Protects your site from spam and abuse New feature: Tawk.to Live chat - FREE live chat software for your website New templates for better Mobile responsive Improvement features in Admin area and members area Updating Payment and Withdrawal modules Updating PHP Cores to the latest version available And many other improvements and fixes, please visit demo website to see more... Download your copyThe update is available to download in your account area and update instruction is available in product tutorials. Please log in to your account area to access them. Stay Safe and Healthy,
September 6, 2021:
egSuperBusiness + Shop version 2.0 is available now
We are very happy to inform you about the new release of egSuperBusiness + Shop. The current version is 2.0 and egSuperBusiness + Shop is getting better with many improvement and new features such as: New feature: Multi membership type with unique configuration for each membership New feature: Traffic ads - Members can purchase traffic for websites, videos or links New feature: Paid to Surf - Members earn additional income by opening/surfing websites New feature: Paid to click - Members earn additional income by click and visiting links New feature: Paid to watch - Members earn additional income by watching videos New feature: Now able to sell downloads/ intangible products New feature: Google reCAPTCHA - Protects your site from spam and abuse Improvement with frontpage templates design to get better Mobile responsive Improvement with members area templates design to get better Mobile responsive Improvement with Admin area templates design to get better Mobile responsive Improvement features in Admin area and members area Improvement with function of Online Shop, Downloads and Articles Improvement with frontpage menus (More menus added) Updating Payment ...
July 23, 2021:
egSuperBusiness is getting better! Version 1.8 is available now
We are very happy to inform you about the new release of egSuperBusiness. The current version is 1.8 and egSuperBusiness is getting better with many improvement and new features such as: New feature: Multi membership type with unique configuration for each membership New feature: Traffic ads - Members can purchase traffic for websites, videos or links New feature: Paid to Surf - Members earn additional income by opening/surfing websites New feature: Paid to click - Members earn additional income by click and visiting links New feature: Paid to watch - Members earn additional income by watching videos Improvement features in Admin area and members area Improvement with frontpage templates design to get better Mobile responsive Improvement with members area templates design to get better Mobile responsive Improvement with Admin area templates design to get better Mobile responsive Updating Payment and Withdrawal modules Updating PHP Cores to the latest version available And many other improvements and fixes, please visit demo website to see more... Download your copy The update is available to download in your account area and update instruction is avail...
January 5, 2021:
Happy New Year! Softwares update available!
Happy New Year.... Wishing you and yours a safe, healthy, and prosperous new year! In the first days of 2021, we worked with software update and just released some of them: egMLM version 1.8 egMLM + Ads version 1.3 egShop version 1.1 egSuperMatrix version 1.7 egSuperBusiness version 1.7 egSuperBusiness + Shop version 1.9 egViralShop version 1.7 Download your copy The update is available to download in your account area and update instruction is available in product tutorials. Please log in to your account area to access them. Stay Safe and Healthy, EGN Software
November 20, 2020:
We just released an update for egMatrix
We just released an update for egMatrix. The current version is 1.5, egMatrix is getting better with many changes and new features such as: Responsive Web Design for frontpage area and members area. Responsive Web Design makes your web page look good on all devices (desktops, tablets, and phones). PHP upgrade to version 7.1++ Upgrade Smarty Template Engine to version 3.1.34 Many improvement with feature Articles and Downloads Update of Instant messenger plugin, Now it working with WhatsApp, Skype, Viber, LINE, Telegram, WeChat, Hangouts, Facebook Messenger New payment plugins New withdrawal plugins New version of the HTML Editor New ticketing system/ Online support system New member verification system And many other new features and improvements, please visit demo website to see more... Download your copy The update is available to download in your account area and update instruction is available in product tutorials. Please log in to your account area to access them. Stay Safe and Healthy, EGN Software | {
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4,368 | After completing his college screenwriting studies David Slate began work with an animal welfare organization creating educational materials. Then traveling abroad, he taught English in Prague for two years. In 2005 he moved to New York City and works in media production as a fine artist and designer. Also a playwright, his short works have been in local New York City festivals.
eHow may earn compensation through affiliate links in this story.
Things You'll Need
Sandpaper
Latex gloves
Plastic sheeting
Tea leaves or tea bags
Coffee
Teapot or coffee maker
Large glass or plastic bowl
Disposable cotton rags
Rub-on beeswax sealer, mineral oil, almond oil or walnut oil
Use a concentrated coffee or tea solution to create a food-safe wood stain.
You can stain wood without the use of harsh or toxic chemicals, and instead apply natural looking, food-safe finishes using food-based products that are safe for people and the environment. Use common household items like tea and coffee to create a traditional stained look. Seal your wooden object with rub-on beeswax or another natural polish. Sand the object or piece of furniture before beginning any treatments to allow the wood to absorb as much of the stain as possible.
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Step 1
Make a highly concentrated tea or coffee solution in your teapot or coffee maker. Depending on the size of your wooden object you will need to make anywhere from 2 cups to a half gallon or more of solution. Double the amount of tea or coffee required for the amount of water being used. The more tea or coffee you add to the liquid the richer the color will be. Pour it into a large glass or plastic bowl.
Step 2
Let the coffee or tea solution cool to room temperature. Wear your latex gloves and soak the cotton rag in the liquid. Ring out slightly and apply the solution to the raw surface of your wooden object. Let the piece dry for at least a couple of hours and apply another coat if you desire a deeper color.
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Step 3
Apply an even coat of the rub-on beeswax sealer with a clean cotton rag. Cover the entire piece and let dry overnight. Apply a second coat to ensure maximum wood absorption.
Tip
Remove any previous sealant, polish, stain and imperfections to allow the wood absorb the new color. Cover any surfaces under or around your project with plastic sheeting to prevent any messes. As beeswax wood sealer and polish is not permanent, you will need to reapply when the wax becomes worn. Other food-safe alternatives are nut oils, like almond or walnut, as well as mineral oil. | {
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4,369 | EI staff provides formation in the Catechism or Sacred Scripture as well as Spiritual Formation to teachers of the archdiocese...
EI staff provides formation in the Catechism or Sacred Scripture as well as Spiritual Formation to teachers of the archdiocese, with an emphasis on their personal relationships with Jesus Christ and an encouragement towards personal prayer.
Also, small group formation and Bible Study is facilitated by EI staff in order to create and foster an atmosphere where teachers can speak about and share their faith with their colleagues. Additionally, EI offers optional content to teachers including an end-of-year retreat, pilgrimages, and prayer experiences for their classrooms. | {
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4,370 | Not just a huge collection of Shark Pictures: Elasmodiver.com contains images of sharks, skates, rays, and a few chimaera's from around the world. Elasmodiver began as a simple web based shark field guide to help divers find the best places to encounter the different species of sharks and rays that live in shallow water but it has slowly evolved into a much larger project containing information on all aspects of shark diving and shark photography.
There are now more than 10,000 shark pictures and sections on shark evolution, biology, and conservation. There is a large library of reviewed shark books, a constantly updated shark taxonomy page, a monster list of shark links, and deeper in the site there are numerous articles and stories about shark encounters. Elasmodiver is now so difficult to check for updates, that new information and pictures are listed on an Elasmodiver Updates Page that can be accessed here:
WHAT'S NEW?
_
SOUTHERN EAGLE RAY
Photograph copyright Andy Murch all rights reserved
View all available Southern Eagle Ray Pictures in the Shark Pictures Database
Common Names: Southern eagle ray, Southern bat ray, Australian Eagle Ray, New Zealand Eagle Ray.
Latin Name: Myliobatis tenuicaudatus
Synonyms: Myliobatis australis
Family: Myliobatididae
Identification: Pectoral fins narrow and pointed. Subrostral lobe (beak) short and rounded. Dorsum brown with pale blue blotches.
Size: Wing span to 150cm.
Habitat: Bays, rocky and coral reef faces, and sand flats (where it feeds).
Abundance and distribution: New Zealand and Australia (from Queensland around the southern coast to W.A.)
Behavior: Often found resting in sand in excavated depressions. Forages in the sand for shelled mollusks and crabs but will take fish incidentally as shown by the bat rays at Hamelin Bay (See diving logistics).
Reproduction: Ovoviviparous.
Observations:
Photographs: Hamelin Bay, W.Australia.
Similar species: The New Zealand eagle ray (M.tenuicaudatus) is possibly the same species.
Reaction to divers: Usually difficult to approach except at Hamelin Bay. See Below.
Diving logistics: By far the best spot to see and photograph Southern bat rays is Hamelin Bay in W.Australia. Here the presence of scraps in the water has resulted in these and other ray species becoming desensitized to contact with humans. Waders and snorkellers are able to feed the rays right from shore. Noone appears to have been hurt in this activity and the rays that come in to take advantage of the snacks are able to be petted and hand fed.
Other diving locations submitted by readers:
Further reading:
Reef Sharks and Rays of the World. Scott W. Michael. Sea Challengers.
Sharks and Rays - Elasmobranch Guide of the World. Ralf M. Hennemann. IKAN.
HOME LINKS TAXONOMY BOOKS CONTACT
SHARK TRIPS
MORE EXPEDITIONS
SPONSORS
ADVERTISERS
ELASMO-BLOGS
SharkPictures Shark & Ray Field Guide SharkPhotography SharkDiving Taxonomy Evolution Biology SharkAttacks Books Shark Movies Stories Extinction Protection Updates SiteMap | {
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4,371 | Not just a huge collection of Shark Pictures: Elasmodiver.com contains images of sharks, skates, rays, and a few chimaera's from around the world. Elasmodiver began as a simple web based shark field guide to help divers find the best places to encounter the different species of sharks and rays that live in shallow water but it has slowly evolved into a much larger project containing information on all aspects of shark diving and shark photography.
There are now more than 10,000 shark pictures and sections on shark evolution, biology, and conservation. There is a large library of reviewed shark books, a constantly updated shark taxonomy page, a monster list of shark links, and deeper in the site there are numerous articles and stories about shark encounters. Elasmodiver is now so difficult to check for updates, that new information and pictures are listed on an Elasmodiver Updates Page that can be accessed here:
WHAT'S NEW?
_
OCEANIC WHITETIP SHARK
Photograph by Kevin Moore
View all available Oceanic Whitetip Shark Images in the Shark Pictures Database
Common Names: Oceanic whitetip shark, Whitetip shark, white-tipped shark, Whitetip whaler.
Latin Name: Carcharhinus longimanus
Family: Carcharhinidae
Identification: Long, broadly rounded pectoral and first dorsal fins. Blotchy white colouration on tips of pectoral, first dorsal, pelvic, and lower caudal fins. Second dorsal and anal fin tipped in black. Dorsal colouration olive brown to bronze. Ventral surface pale.
Size: Maximum length 3.95m. Usually under 3m. 60 to 75cm at birth.
Habitat: Open Ocean. May cruise close to isolated islets but is not a common inshore visitor. To at least 180m depth.
Abundance and distribution: Circumtropical and temperate. Recorded in the Western Atlantic from New York to Uruguay. Commonly seen around the Hawaiian Islands. In some places most common open ocean shark.
Behavior: Cruises over deep reefs and through open oceanic regions in search of oceanic bony fishes such as tuna. Sometimes follows pods of pilot whales probably due to their ability to find squid and may feed on injured individuals. Oceanic whitetips can lift their noses out of the water and sniff the air to find prey over greater distances than by following water borne scent trails. May congregate around food sources such as whale carcasses (where it dominates similarly sized sharks such as blues) but most often solitary.
Reproduction: Viviparous. Litter size 1 - 15 depending on the size of the mother. Gestation period around 12 months.
Observations: Often seen with an escort of pilot fish.
Photographs: East Africa.
Similar species: Only vaguely similar to the blue shark (Prionace glauca) which shares much of its range.
Reaction to divers: An extremely inquisitive shark. The Oceanic whitetip may circle swimmers or divers repeatedly if it thinks it may have a potential meal. Extreme caution should be shown around this animal especially larger individuals. It is responsible for many attacks on ship wreck victims as documented after the sinking of the ship Nova Scotia off the Natal Coast during the second world war.
Diving logistics: Although open ocean diving with Oceanic whitetips is a hit or miss affair some places where they have been seen regularly by divers are: Hawaii's Kona Coast, Various Red Sea locations including Ras Mohammad, and Australia's Jervis Bay. The Kona Agressor II offers a cage dive that is reputedly successful year round. Read the report submitted by Kevin Moore below.
Other diving locations submitted by readers:
I have attached a picture of an oceanic white-tip taken at elphinestone reef red sea last month. This was one of five that have been hanging round this reef for several months now. This one is not best pleased at my presence. Unfortunately some idiots on a liveaboard were dangling a chicken on a rope teasing it up near the surface and when it saw me, viewed me as a threat to it's meal. After a good push into my camera and a second pass pushing into my shoulder I just gently sank down a few metres and it seemed to accept this as me backing down and it returned to it's chicken.
Have several other pictures if required. Kevin Moore, Blackpool, UK.
Further reading:
Paul Humann - Reef Fish Identification. Florida Caribbean Bahamas.
Reef Sharks and Rays of the World. Scott W. Michael. Sea Challengers.
Sharks and Rays - Elasmobranch Guide of the World. Ralf M. Hennemann. IKAN.
Sharks - Andrea and Antonella Ferrari. Firefly
HOME LINKS TAXONOMY UNDER THREAT BOOKS CONTACT
SHARK TRIPS
MORE EXPEDITIONS
SPONSORS
ADVERTISERS
ELASMO-BLOGS
SharkPictures Shark & Ray Field Guide SharkPhotography SharkDiving Taxonomy Evolution Biology SharkAttacks Books Shark Movies Stories Extinction Protection Updates SiteMap | {
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4,372 | Edubin perfect for online courses and other institutes. It’s a complete solution with lms features and functionalities. | {
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4,373 | After almost 40 years in business doing commercial and industrial electrical contracting it is time to retire. The industry has been good to me, and with the business climate like it is now, I thought I’d leave electrical contracting to the next generation, and continue to do some part time electrical inspecting. The problem I am having is trying to liquidate all the equipment and supplies I have accumulated over the years? None of my old employees want a business or are in a position to buy it if they did. I have man-lifts, benders pullers and everything else you would need for this kind of work, but there just isn’t enough for an auction. I’m afraid I’d lose too much money on a deal like that. I guess I’ll have to try and sell everything off by advertising everything individually but I need a source for used electrical equipment to get some comparative pricing. Does anyone deal with a company that sells used electrical construction equipment? I could use a web site to get an idea how to price this equipment. Thanks for your help.
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Work Gear for Electricians and the Trades
Work Gear for Electricians and the Trades
Arc Flash Clothing, Gloves, KneePads, Tool Belts, Pouches, Tool Carriers, etc. etc....
Re: Retiring & Used Equipment
Elec N Spec #163552 05/10/07 10:16 AM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 3,669
Likes: 2
NY, USA
Admin
Administrator
Member
Elec N Spec,
When you get ready to list the items for sale I hope you'll make use of our free Classified Ad website at www.Electrical-Classified.com
Bill
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Re: Retiring & Used Equipment
Admin #163554 05/10/07 10:32 AM
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 132
Anaheim, CA USA
M
mhulbert
Member
Start watching eBay for auctions similar to what you have, this will give you some info on what pricing you can expect.
I know name brand stuff like greenlee get a good amount of money. If it's off-brand, don't expect as much interest or money.
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Re: Retiring & Used Equipment
Admin #163557 05/10/07 10:40 AM
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 33
Rochester Hills, MI USA
E
Elec N Spec OP
Member
Yes, I will use the classified ads here and thanks for reminding me. It should be quite a long list but stuff like Enerpac benders, 4" Greenlee benders and Super Tuggers are a bit tough to ship.
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Re: Retiring & Used Equipment
Elec N Spec #163568 05/10/07 07:05 PM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,283
Likes: 3
Brick, NJ USA
HotLine1
Member
Elec N Spec:
I'm doing the same thing you are! Time to hang it up. Let my guys 'go' last Fri.
Hopefully, a deal can be done tommorrow, if not....another long list on the classified section.
John
John
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Re: Retiring & Used Equipment
HotLine1 #163581 05/11/07 02:08 AM
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 2,876
S.F.,CA USA
E
e57
Member
Young guy talking here... Have you guys ever thought about passing on the biz to your employees or to someone else by selling it off interest in it? Existing customer base, branding, collective experiance and equipment that took a long time to gather has quite a bit of value these days. Hand over the reins as you pull your capitol out - maybe hold a small interest as income if it goes well.
Mark Heller
"Well - I oughta....." -Jackie Gleason
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Re: Retiring & Used Equipment
e57 #163583 05/11/07 07:07 AM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,283
Likes: 3
Brick, NJ USA
HotLine1
Member
Mark:
Considering a lot of what you said above, but if that don't pan out, I need an alternative.
John
John
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Re: Retiring & Used Equipment
HotLine1 #163603 05/12/07 04:52 AM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 2,722
Anaheim, CA. USA
Scott35
Broom Pusher and
Member
I concur with what Mark ("E57") posted - pass on your Company, Clients and most of all, your years of experience to some qualified individuals, with you remaining as a partner (50% ownership at least), and as RMO, until the time comes where you may disassociate and turn over the Company to others.
Your trade experience is valuable, and so is your Business experience - both of which are major assets to pass on to future tradespersons.
Along with those items, having experience in dealing with Clients, Architects, Engineers, Building Departments and the other trades, is such a valuable thing to pass on to others.
Becoming an Inspector is a great thing - but as we all know it's at times a very "Thankless Job"; where very few people will say "Thanks" or even want to talk with you about your experiences.
Hope this is not a common thing in your area, but it's very common around So. California, when inexperienced or arrogant persons are running jobs.
I hear Inspectors all the time, mentioning what they had to deal with, from the last 3 jobs they Inspected before coming to my Project - and it seems to be getting worse!
I don't understand why some forepersons have to fight with Inspectors!
(rant beginning - topic will now be terminated!!!).
Anyway, if you do close the doors, maybe you could advertise your tool stock at a few Wholesale Houses, in conjunction to the Classifieds here at ECN.
Along with this (and possibly in conjunction to the Inspector Gig), maybe try being a Consultant for your Clients, and/or take a position with another EC as a Designer or Consultant - but not as a P.M.!!! (unless you find a company that isn't looking for a new P.M. ... more on this later).
If you are passionate to educate, try an Instructor position.
A person with lots of trade + business experience would make an excellent Instructor across many aspects of the trade.
Good luck!
Scott
p.s. The term "P.M." = Project Manager, and "Finding A Company That Is Not Looking For A P.M." is directed towards the way many Companies have very high Employee turnovers (replacement) for P.M. positions, due to those employees resigning after the insanity kicks in.
Scott " 35 " Thompson
Just Say NO To Green Eggs And Ham!
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Re: Retiring & Used Equipment
Scott35 #163729 05/15/07 08:02 PM
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 7,283
Likes: 3
Brick, NJ USA
HotLine1
Member
Gentlemen:
I'm happy to say I reached an agreement with another EC today. Clients, tools, materials, and one van. Two guys have a job, if they want it also.
I will hang in as a 'consultant' for a transition period.
Why? you may ask? AHJ job, teaching at Vo-Tech (PT) and CEU Instructor are paths that I want to walk down now. Age, business climate, and pursuit of other interests related to the trade.
Best part is...I don't have to "HOG" Mr Bill's Classified thread.
PS: I'll still be here.
John
John
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Re: Retiring & Used Equipment
HotLine1 #163858 05/19/07 08:03 AM
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 33
Rochester Hills, MI USA
E
Elec N Spec OP
Member
Thank you for all your input gentlemen. I took some of your advice and eBay is an excellent place to get pricing on both new and used equipment.
As it turns out I have been offered and accepted a position as a full time plan reviewer and electrical inspector for one of the fastest growing municipalities in the state because of my commercial and industrial experience. I wouldn’t have time to joint venture with someone while they bought my business nor would I like worrying about how they were operating the business. That is one reason I never took on a partner in the 40 years I was contracting. If things didn’t go right I was the only one to blame. None of my old employees are in a position to purchase a business and I don’t have any children who are in the trade. I have placed an ad in the largest newspaper in our state and will attend our electrical contractor’s association’s monthly meeting and announced it there. I may also place ads in the wholesale houses as well.
In all my years in the trade I always treated electrical inspectors with great respect. I’m not saying that they were always right but they had a job to do too and a quick trip to a code book usually solved any misunderstanding. I have loved this industry and to me this is something I am really looking forward to. On top of that it actually seems funny that somebody else would be willing to paying “me” to sit home on holidays and while I’m on vacation. After all these years somebody else will have to worry about, FICA, OSHA, Federal Taxes, State Taxes, Unemployment Taxes, Business Taxes, CPA’s, Bankers, Employees, Estimators, Salesmen, Advertising and the list goes on and on. I wish all you young contractors the very best and hope to see you on the job some time.
Regards
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4,374 | War Journal Entry #420- A string of kidnappings has me on the hunt. These disgusting perverts are the lowest forms of scum I deal with and they must be dealt with quickly before they can continue they're terror. I gathered the intel I needed and tracked down my target. I can't decide what i want to kill this piece of shit with yet so I leave myself with some options. I lock and load with an M-16, a pistol grip 12-gage, a Dessert Eagle, a couple Flashbangs and a Knife.Quietly making my way up to the house i sneak through an window after checking the door to find it locked. Once I am inside the perverts house i notice the basement light is on. I proceed down the basement and am greeted with a menacing but expected sight....Blood.....Bones. But what i see next has me baffled. As i get toward the bottom of the stairs I see a strange gray substance. I enter the basebent and at my feet is a massive creature that looks out of this world with a hole the size of bowling ball blasted out of his stomach. A little girl is crying in the corner but she is not the only one in the room. Standing in the middle of the room are two men. The one on the left, the younger of the two and black. The one on the right, an older white man. Both men wore black suits and black ties. And both had biggest, most bizzare guns i have ever seen in my life! I knew there was no time for questions. I ready my weapons and prepare for battle!
June 27, 2013
9 replies
Punisher
Men in Black
Punisher, Ghost Rider and Blade back in Marvel Studios hands.
LuisLim posted a topic in Fan Discussion
So I heard that Punisher, Ghost Rider and Blade are now back to Marvel after being loaned to other companies. Now that they are back, a reboot of would definitely sound good considering how the audience reacted to their films negatively *coughGhostRidercough* So how would the Punisher, Ghost Rider and Blade fit into the Marvel Cinematic Universe? It would be interesting to see Marvel Studios reboot at least one of these characters, hell let's just make Phase 3 of the Marvel Cinematic Universe about these bad asses. Your thoughts? | {
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4,375 | Recently I came across a very different software. It is Autohotkey. It a language compiler which enables you to mimic keyboard and mouse actions automatically. Only thing you have to do is to download software from their site and install. Since it works on Windows platform so as a basic user I am assuming that you can install it.
In this tutorial I am going to tell you a simple thing which could be with very handy for you a lot many time. Especially if you are addicted to shorthand typing as you do while messaging. So till now you might have visited the website and installed the software.
So lets begin with writing hotstrings. Hotstrings are specific string of words which will produce other longer string of words. It is a form of abbreviation which is expended automatically. I hope you might be pretty interested till now as you are going to reduce the typing task in your daily work.
So once installed Autohotkey you can right click on your screen and click on new and select for new Autohotkey script. Now edit this script using you favorite text editor and enter the following lines below the last line of automatically generated code.
::btw:: by the way
::wat:: what
::u:: you
::y:: why
::r:: are
Save the file and double click on it. Now go to any text editor or MSWORD program. Try typing r or wat or btw and see your keys getting expended automatically. That is the magic of Autohotkey. Enjoy!!! | {
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4,376 | The FMLA allows you to take leave to care for your spouse, child, or parent who is seriously ill, or to work while you are unable to do so due to a serious health condition of your own. In addition to pregnancy, prenatal appointments, incapacity due to morning sickness, and medically necessary bed rest are also considered pregnancy.
Table of contents
1. what is not covered under fmla?
2. do you need a doctor’s excuse for fmla?
3. what conditions qualify for fmla leave?
4. is fmla considered a reasonable accommodation?
5. what is a non fmla?
6. what is the difference between fmla and non fmla?
7. can fmla be approved without a doctor’s note?
8. do i need a doctor’s approval for fmla?
9. what illnesses does fmla cover?
10. what are good reasons for fmla?
11. is fmla a reasonable accommodation?
12. what is the difference between fmla and reasonable accommodation?
13. what qualifies as a reasonable accommodation?
14. is a leave of absence as reasonable accommodation under ada?
What Is Not Covered Under Fmla?
A spouse, child, or parent may take FMLA leave to care for themselves or their family. In addition to significant other, grandparent, distant relative, neighbor, pet, or friend, your employer must approve it on special grounds if it applies to these relationships.
Do You Need A Doctor’s Excuse For Fmla?
When an employee requests leave under the FMLA, an employer may request a doctor’s note or medical certification. The absence of a doctor’s note from work is not required for employees on intermittent FMLA leave.
What Conditions Qualify For Fmla Leave?
FMLA leave is available to employees who work for a covered employer, who work 1,250 hours during the 12 months prior to the start of leave, who work at a location where 50 or more employees work, and who live within 75 miles of the covered employer.
Is Fmla Considered A Reasonable Accommodation?
If a worker has taken FMLA leave and meets the ADA definition of a person with a disability, he or she may still be entitled to ADA benefits. The right to accommodation is one of these. In addition to the FMLA leave, additional leave (past the FMLA leave) may be required by the ADA.
What Is A Non Fmla?
Employees can take up to 12 weeks off under FMLA leave. In the absence of a family member, it is considered a medical leave that is not covered by the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA). The law still protects the jobs and wages of your employees in this case.
What Is The Difference Between Fmla And Non Fmla?
Facts. When an employee takes a leave of absence, it is typically approved by the employer. Employers and employees must meet certain qualifications to be eligible for FMLA leave.
Can Fmla Be Approved Without A Doctor’s Note?
The employer cannot require employees to submit doctor’s notes when they are FMLA-exempt. It is generally accepted that employees must provide enough information to their employers so that they can inform them of their need for leave.
Do I Need A Doctor’s Approval For Fmla?
Employers are not required to request medical certification if they have enough information to know that an employee’s absence qualifies for FMLA benefits. It is important for employers to follow the same policy and practice when it comes to requiring medical certifications from employees requesting FMLA leave.
What Illnesses Does Fmla Cover?
The disease of Alzheimer’s disease.
The following conditions can lead to chronic back pain:
cancer;
diabetes;
Disorders of the nervous system; ;
Depression severe; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression; depression
The condition of pregnancy or its complications, such as severe morning sickness and prenatal care;
Multiple sclerosis treatment; substance abuse treatment; and alcohol abuse treatment.
What Are Good Reasons For Fmla?
It may be possible to take advantage of the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA). The FMLA provides unpaid, job-protected leave for people who are unable to work due to serious health conditions, or who need to care for their parents, spouses, or children with serious health conditions.
Is Fmla A Reasonable Accommodation?
The Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA), an employee leave law, has been a source of experience for many employers. A reasonable accommodation must be provided to qualified employees with disabilities by employers, unless it would be an undue hardship for them.
What Is The Difference Between Fmla And Reasonable Accommodation?
The ADA requires employers to keep the employee’s position open during a reasonable accommodation request. FMLA: Employers must reinstate employees to the same or substantially equivalent position during a reasonable accommodation request.
What Qualifies As A Reasonable Accommodation?
In order to be considered for a reasonable accommodation, an application or hiring process must be changed, the job must be done differently, or the work environment must be changed so that a person with a disability can perform the essential functions of that job and be treated equally.
Is A Leave Of Absence As Reasonable Accommodation Under Ada?
Unpaid Leave of Absence The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) ADA guidance states that employers should consider unpaid leave as a form of reasonable accommodation when dealing with employees who are on unpaid leave.
Watch can you use fmla for doctors appointments Video
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Can I Take Fmla If My Dad Is Terminally Ill?
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Kerry
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Welcome. We are covering all business related topics. If you are a founder or a CEO of any company, hit us up for an interview. | {
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4,377 | This gallery contains all the images of the Hyatt Comcast Christmas party. Breeze through this mosaic of faces, to click ones you would like to view, or change the way they're presented, if you'd rather see a slideshow, a preview, etc. All images can be printed from this site, or downloaded, iand in the process you may choose to alter or crop them to suit your needs. The time spent editing, and for the most part, shooting these was unpaid, so if you find great enjoyment here, consider a donation to several non-profit public assistance programs run by the photographer, whose small paypal link is at the bottom of this page. Any profits derived from this site merely cover hosting costs. Although many shots here are not straightforward or glamorous, they do represent ongoing stories or moments from the entire evening (as I believe I was one of the last people to leave). I have included all the shots here, many in distorted, wide-angle extremes, to remedy any black spots, blanks or missed reveries. Please enhance your day with these, and thank you fall for an excellent time there.
Sincerely,
Brock Hanson
www.filmarchives.org
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For custom printing, digital originals, and alternate versions of these photos, contact Brock Hanson at Evanescent Photography (415-378-1003). All images from the event can be found at www.elegantuniverse.com/corporate. I was not paid to work on these images, so if you like them, consider a paypal donation to cover my total time expended. All profits (if any) derived from print sales and donations are employed for teaching purposes. ( http://donate.daresay.com ) Most of all, thank you for a fun event!
For custom printing, digital originals, and alternate versions of these photos, contact Brock Hanson at Evanescent Photography (415-378-1003). All images from the event can be found at www.elegantuniverse.com/corporate. I was not paid to work on these images, so if you like them, consider a paypal donation to cover my total time expended. All profits (if any) derived from print sales and donations are employed for teaching purposes. ( http://donate.daresay.com ) Most of all, thank you for a fun event! | {
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4,378 | In a previous role, I had accountability for quality at a software company. If that sounds like testing, you’d be correct. It’s a simple word, testing, but if you’ve tested software, simplicity probably isn’t the first descriptor that pops into your mind.
I enjoyed that role first and foremost because of the people on the team. Passionate, capable, highly dedicated individuals. I also enjoyed the complexity of our objective…to assess the quality of the product without letting defects slip through to production. We did functional testing including, system, integration, regression, beta, etc. We also did non-functional testing including, performance, load, stress, security, usability, localization, etc. Some of our testing was manual and some was automated. As time progressed our test library grew exponentially. We had both onshore and offshore testers, so our efforts followed the sun and rarely stopped.
Although our team was the only one with the word ‘quality’ actually in the name, we were really the last line of defense in the software quality effort. If done right quality is a process, not just an outcome. From ideation and requirements, to prioritization and design, to development and integration, to testing (and everything in between), there is quality infused throughout the process or lifecycle.
All good software people know that the later a defect is discovered in the process, the more expensive it is to fix. The same is true of any business process.
What is the Quality Intersection?
Quality is the intersection of thoroughness and standardization (see Intersection 24 image below). Thoroughness without standardization is applying diligence to a task without taking the same steps each subsequent time you do it. Standardization without thoroughness is a defined but incomplete process.
At the software company we tested constantly, new features and regression, to ensure new code didn’t break existing functionality. We added test cases and scripts regularly to improve thoroughness. Simultaneously, we had standards in place for how test cases and scripts were to be written, how and when they’d be executed and who’d do the execution. Without this standardization our testing would have been an unorganized free-for-all, lacking the ability to plan test specific windows and results reporting.
Talent acquisition is another common aspect of business that requires thoroughness and standardization to ensure quality. Thoroughness in the acquisition process is intended to ensure the right candidates are identified, evaluated and decided upon. Standardization is intended to ensure fairness in the process and the ability to do a realistic and valid apples-to-apples comparison of candidates.
In my experience, quality belongs in every aspect of business. Done well, it manifests as efficacy and efficiency, concurrently.
Thoroughness
The purpose of thoroughness in quality is to remind us that it doesn’t just apply to the end result, rather it’s a part of the entire process. Regardless of the various process methodologies followed by an organization, instilling quality checks and measures throughout provides a better opportunity for catching issues sooner rather than later and minimizing the costs to address them. Thoroughness is about casting a wide net to achieve maximum, logical coverage.
Intersection 24: Quality = Thoroughness + Standardization
Standardization
Standardization covers the repeatability aspect of quality measures. Are we, as a company or team, disciplined enough to 1) create reusable processes and 2) use those processes consistently? It’s said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. With standardization we have the opposite…we do the same thing over and over again because we want the same result, and if we get a different result there's an issue with quality. Standardization is about creating proficiency and adeptness through process.
What Can Leaders Do?
For leaders, quality is about attention to detail. Are we focused on the right things at the right time in the right way, consistently? Good leaders include quality as an expectation of their team members. Additionally, they build in quality measures to be tracked, reported and measured.
The goal of quality is to give us the best chance of doing something right the first time.
Wrap Up & Up Next
Quality is a never-ending pursuit. Programs like Six Sigma and CMMI are the epitome of thoroughness and standardization for their specifically targeted processes.
Most companies have their own internally developed processes for managing quality. The key is to continually evaluate them and ensure they’re relevant and being adhered to.
Next time we’ll examine the 25th intersection of performance, which is the Persistence Intersection.
In this series of articles, we explore The Intersections of Performance, of which there are 30. The Intersections of Performance framework is based on the experience and insights of Brett Simpson, Managing Director of Elevate Simply, over his 20+ years of leadership in large and small organizations, and as an entrepreneur, advisor and investor. | {
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4,379 | Multicolor printed long sleeve backless dress featuring a low dip back cutout and t-strap detail. Has great stretch. Model is wearing a size small. | {
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4,380 | Saving for a comfortable retirement is one of the most common financial goals among working people. One possible retirement savings vehicle is the IRA. Even if you have access to an employer-sponsored retirement plan, you may still be eligible to supplement your employer’s plan by contributing to a tax-deductible IRA or a Roth IRA. This calculator is designed to help you determine whether you qualify for the different types of IRAs and to estimate the potential future value of each type of IRA for which you are eligible.
You can see below, and on the following pages, the types of IRAs you are eligible to make contributions to. If your income exceeds certain levels, you may qualify for a partial deduction (or no deduction) on your contribution to a traditional IRA, or you may be ineligible or only partially eligible for a Roth IRA. If that is the case, you can still consider making nondeductible contributions to a traditional IRA.
Skip Table Information
Your Results
Description
Amount
Are you eligible for a nondeductible IRA? 0.00
Your maximum annual contribution: $0.00
After-tax value of nondeductible IRA when withdrawals begin: $0
Estimated annual income from nondeductible IRA: $0.00
Skip Table Information
Your Results (continued)
Description
Amount
Are you eligible for a deductible IRA? 0.00
Your maximum annual contribution: $0.00
After-tax value of deductible IRA when withdrawals begin: $0.00
Estimated annual income from deductible IRA: $0.00
Skip Table Information
Your Results (continued)
Description
Amount
Are you eligible for a Roth IRA? 0.00
Your maximum annual contribution: $0.00
After-tax value of Roth IRA when withdrawals begin: $0.00
Estimated annual income from Roth IRA: $0.00
Are you eligible for more than one type of IRA account? If so, you may need to choose which account is appropriate for you. In some cases, you may have more than one type of IRA account. You should be aware that no matter how many different IRA accounts you have, your total contributions to all IRAs in a single year may not exceed $6,000. In addition, individuals aged 50 and older may make an additional $1,000 "catch-up" contribution, bringing the total contribution limit to $7,000. This calculator assumes maximum contributions, including "catch-up" contributions for those age 50 and older.
The chart below illustrates the differences in after-tax income for Roth, deductible, and nondeductible IRAs using the values you entered.
Estimated Total After-Tax Income from Different IRAs
The information provided is not specific investment advice, a guarantee of performance, or a recommendation. Rates of return will vary over time, particularly for long term investments. Investments offering the potential for higher rates of return also involve a higher degree of risk.
Note that withdrawals from deductible and nondeductible traditional IRAs are subject to ordinary income taxes and if withdrawn prior to age 59½ may be subject to an additional 10 percent federal income tax penalty (for nondeductible traditional IRAs, only the portion of the withdrawal attributable to earnings is taxable). To qualify for the tax-free and penalty-free withdrawal of earnings, a Roth IRA must be in place for at least five tax years and the distribution must take place after age 59½ or due to death, disability, or a first-time home purchase (up to a $10,000 lifetime limit). To the extent that they exceed total contributions, non-qualified distributions are subject to a 10 percent federal income tax penalty and are includable in gross income.
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This hypothetical example is used for illustrative purposes only. Actual results will vary.
This information is not intended as tax, legal, investment, or retirement advice or recommendations, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek advice from an independent tax or legal professional. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
This material was written and prepared by Broadridge Advisor Solutions.
© 2021 Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc.
Securities offered through ELE Wealth Advisors, Inc. member FINRA. Advisory services offered through ELE Advisory Services, Inc. ELE Wealth Advisors, Inc. and ELE Advisory Services, Inc., are affiliated through common ownership and control. Insurance products and services are offered and sold through individually licensed and appointed agents in all appropriate jurisdictions.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed here. MI NMLS #287383 | {
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4,382 | Every item on this page was chosen by an ELLE editor. We may earn commission on some of the items you choose to buy.
Great Expectations
By ELLE
Jan 6, 2012
Getty Images
Beyoncé just gave birth! But other stars are still waiting. From Jessica Simpson to Lily Aldridge, check out the most anticipated babies of 2012
View Gallery 10 Photos
Getty Images
1 of 10
Great Expectations
Beyoncé and Jay-Z
Since Beyoncé took the stage at the MTV Video Music Awards in August and playfully rubbed her belly to announce she was pregnant with Jay-Z's baby, the countdown began for the Destiny's Child superchild. And the moment everyone was waiting for finally arrived Saturday, when Beyonce gave birth to Blue Ivy Carter in New York City. The infant, not surprisingly, is already making headlines. The couple reserved an entire floor at a city hospital for the big occasion, causing some to complain that service at the hospital was compromised. And Twitter was alight with congratulatory tweets. Rihanna, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Solange, the baby's auntie, were among the first to welcome Blue Ivy into the world—and the Twitterverse.
MORE: What's in store for Baby Blue, a Capricorn? We ask astrologer Susan Miller
Getty Images
2 of 10
Jessica Simpson and Eric Johnson
After weeks of barely camouflaging the most obvious baby bump in Hollywood, Jessica Simpson finally acknowledged in fall 2011 that she was pregnant. (Dressed as a mummy for Halloween, Simpson tweeted: "It's true—I'm going to be a mummy!") But the 30-year-old Simpson—who got engaged to the baby's father, former NFL quarterback Eric Johnson, in November 2010—will not be designing a maternity wedding dress for herself. The couple plan to marry after the baby is born this spring.
Getty Images
3 of 10
Jennifer Garner and Ben Affleck
Will it finally be a boy for Jennifer Garner when she gives birth in early 2012? The 39-year-old actress already has two daughters—Violet, 6, and Seraphina, 2—with her husband, Ben Affleck. And Garner has another baby due later this year in The Odd Life of Timothy Green, in which a childless couple buries a box in their backyard containing their dreams for an infant.
Getty Images
4 of 10
Maggie Gyllenhaal and Peter Sarsgaard
It's a pretty safe bet that the second child of indie darlings Maggie Gyllenhaal and Peter Sarsgaard will be, well, independent. The couple, who already has a five-year-old daughter, Ramona, announced in November that Gyllenhaal was due to give birth this spring, and presumably she will be ready for it this time around. "There's no way to prepare for the challenges, the immense joys, the surprises, the disappointments and the shocks," she told People after Ramona's birth. "Your heart just rips open. It's amazing."
Getty Images
5 of 10
Candice Crawford and Tony Romo
When Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo visited a local high school in October 2011, one of the students asked if he had any children. "Um, no, I don't have any kids," the 31-year-old Romo replied. "I've actually got one on the way. My wife's pregnant." While the students applauded, Romo reacted like he'd scored the ultimate touchdown; he raised his fist and said, "It'll be fun." Romo and his wife, Candice Crawford, 24, were married in May 2011.
Getty Images
6 of 10
Kourtney Kardashian and Scott Disick
What's the best way to erase the news of an embarrassing divorce after just 72 days of marriage? Have your sister announce that she is pregnant with her second child. In November 2011, just weeks after Kim Kardashian's fairy-tale showmance to Kris Humphries was canceled, Kourtney announced that she and her longtime boyfriend, Scott Disick, were going to add another little moneymaker to the family. (Older brother Mason is two.) "I'm nine weeks along," the 32-year-old reality star admitted to Us Weekly. "You're supposed to wait 12 weeks to tell people, but I feel confident."
Getty Images
7 of 10
Lily Aldridge and Caleb Followill
Proving that there will never be a shortage of children produced by rock stars and supermodels, Kings of Leon front man Caleb Followill and his wife, Victoria's Secret model Lily Aldridge, announced in December that they were having their first child. Following the news, Caleb's brother and KOL bandmate Jared, tweeted: "So excited to be an uncle! Congrats Caleb & Lily! If it's a boy, we gonna be hitting da club together every night! If it's a girl...church."
Getty Images
8 of 10
Susan Downey and Robert Downey Jr.
It wouldn't take Sherlock Holmes to figure out that Robert Downey Jr. wanted to have a baby in 2012. In November 2010, the 46-year-old actor (who already has a 17-year-old son, Indio, from his first marriage to Deborah Falconer) told Playboy: "I think I will be wrist-deep in doo-doo within 18 months. I'm calling it right here." (Then again, he was promoting the movie Due Date at the time.) But sure enough, in August 2011 Downey and his wife of six years announced that she would have their first Iron Baby in February 2012.
Getty Images
9 of 10
Hilary Duff and Mike Comrie
In August 2011, on the first anniversary of her wedding to NHL star Mike Comrie, Hilary Duff posted happy news on her website that the couple were expecting their first child. Two months later, the 24-year-old Duff did what few celebrities do and revealed the baby's gender: "I haven't told anyone yet. I wanted to tell you first. I just found out," Duff gushed to Ellen DeGeneres. "It's a boy! I had a feeling it was a boy the whole time."
Getty Images
10 of 10
Emma Heming and Bruce Willis
It may not have been a good year for Ashton Kutcher and Demi Moore, but Bruce Willis and his wife, Emma Heming, delivered good news in 2011—they are expecting their first child this spring. The 53-year-old Willis, of course, already has three daughters with Moore—Rumer, 23, Scout, 20, and Tallulah, 17.
Next
Scary Scenes Starring Ryan Murphy's Leading Ladies
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4,383 | © Copyright 2021 Elettrotecnica S.Agata - Via Candelo 64/E, 13900 Biella (BI) Italy - P.IVA: 00496530023
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4,384 | Mojca Duh (Strategic Management and Business Policy, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Maribor, Maribor, Slovenia)
Kybernetes
ISSN: 0368-492X
Article publication date: 29 April 2014
Downloads
2295
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to broaden the understanding of family business succession as organizational knowledge creation process.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper is built on organizational knowledge creation theory and reviews literature on family business succession. Four modes of knowledge conversion are followed to identify knowledge creation activities contributing to family business's knowledge base and to develop propositions.
Findings
Successful realization of succession depends not only on “traditional” knowledge creation activities of socialization and internalization, but as well as on active involvement of successor(s) in many aspects of business functioning. This contributes not only to widening successor(s) knowledge base but as well as to the firm's tacit and explicit knowledge triggering a new spiral of knowledge.
Research limitations/implications
The paper limits the research on leadership succession as one of the most challenging tasks in family business's life cycle. Moreover, research findings have implications for small- and medium-sized family businesses due to the strong preference of keeping the leadership within a family.
Practical implications
Propositions developed provide useful cognitions to professionals and stakeholders involved in succession process. If they understand the complexity of knowledge creation process, they can stand a better chance of improving the process of successor(s)’ development and leadership transfer in such a way that family business will have better chance to survive and progress after the transition.
Originality/value
The research provides a comprehensive framework of knowledge creation activities during succession thus indicating the requisitely holistic approach to succession from organizational knowledge creation perspective. The study contributes to the organizational knowledge creation theory and the succession theory.
Keywords
Family business
Socialization
Cybernetics
Knowledge transfer
Tacit knowledge
Explicit knowledge
Organizational knowledge creation
Externalization
Combination
Internalization
Citation
Duh, M. (2014), "Family business succession as knowledge creation process", Kybernetes, Vol. 43 No. 5, pp. 699-714. https://doi.org/10.1108/K-08-2013-0172 | {
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4,385 | This card is A6 in size and is printed onto premium quality 300gsm card-stock, it is accompanied by a crisp white C6 envelope of 130gsm weight.
Size guide:
A6 - 10.5cm x 14.8cm (folded size)
C6 - 11.4cm x 16.2cm
Easter Card | Isaiah 53 (Available in packs)
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--PLEASE NOTE --
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4,387 | Feel free to browse or conduct a simple or advanced keyword search by clicking on the search links above. If you have a question that is not answered here, please ask us directly. Note that we may post some version of your question (and our response) here for the benefit of other users. You may also register to post messages directly to the boards below. | {
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4,388 | The company has won two additional energy supply contracts for two wind farms totalling 280 MW in South Africa, bringing the total capacity awarded to Enel Green Power in the fourth phase of the REIPPPP tender up to 705 MW.
These projects mark a significant step forward in the consolidation of Enel Green Power Group in Africa, with the company now awarded a total of over 1,200 MW of wind and solar power in South African public tenders.
Rome, June 10th, 2015 Enel Green Power (EGP) has been awarded the right to sign 20-year energy supply contracts with South African utility Eskom for an additional 280 MW of wind power projects in the fourth phase of the REIPPPP (Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme) tender, which is being promoted by the South African government.
In line with REIPPPPs rules, EGP participated in the tender through vehicle companies in which it holds the majority of the shares, in partnership with major local players.
The Soetwater (142 MW) and Garob (138 MW) wind farms, which will be built in areas of the Northern Cape Province that have significant wind resources, will be completed and enter operation by 2018. EGP will be investing a total of approximately 340 million euros in the new projects, in line with EGP growth targets set out in its current strategic plan.
Once completed, the two facilities will be able to generate around 1,000 GWh per year, and will help satisfy South Africas rising energy demand in a sustainable and environmentally-friendly way.
"With the award of this additional wind capacity, Enel Green Power has consolidated its position as the largest private renewable energy player in the whole of Africa," said Francesco Venturini, Chief Executive Officer of Enel Green Power. "South Africa, where electricity demand is still expanding rapidly and the economy is growing, with a stable regulatory and legislative framework, maintains its position as a strategic country for our company. We are ready to more than double our investment there, increasing it to more than 1.3 billion euros from 600 million euros."
Soetwater and Garob projects, which add to the Oyster Bay (142 MW), Nxuba (141 MW) and Karusa (142 MW) wind farms, bring the total capacity awarded to Enel Green Power Group in the fourth round of the REIPPPP tender up to 705 MW. These projects mark a significant step forward in the consolidation of the Group in Africa, with the company now awarded a total of over 1,200 MW of wind and solar power in South African public tenders.
The new projects will join the 10 MW Upington solar power plant in operation in the country and the 513 MW of projects for which 20-year power supply contracts with Eskom have been signed, following the third phase of the REIPPPP in 2013. These projects are the Aurora (82.5 MW), Tom Burke (66 MW), Paleisheuwel and Pulida (both 82.5 MW) solar facilities, and the Gibson Bay (111 MW) and Nojoli (88 MW) wind farms.
Enel Green Power is the Enel Group company fully dedicated to the international development and management of renewable energy sources, with operations in Europe, the Americas and Africa. With a generation capacity equal to approximately 32 billion kWh in 2014 from water, sun, wind and the Earths heat enough to meet the energy needs of more than 11 million households Enel Green Power is a world leader in the sector thanks to its well-balanced generation mix that provides generation volumes well over the sector average. As of today, the company has an installed capacity of more than 9,800 MW from a mix of sources including wind, solar, hydropower, geothermal and biomass. The company has about 740 plants operating in 15 countries.
All Enel Green Power press releases are also available in versions for smart phones and tablets.
You can download the Enel Mobile app at: Google Play
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4,389 | For Trade Associations, Event Organizations, Vendors, Attendees: Use these pages to submit events for publication and see all of the events contributed by industry in the fuel and energy industries | {
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4,390 | Germany and Brazil work together in order to support and diversify a sustainable, secure and affordable energy provision, as well as to enhance energy efficiency in both countries.
We provide a forum for high level political dialogue and bring together representatives from different sectors in order to support a broader use of renewable energies and energy efficiency.
Facts & Figures
Installed Capacity Renewables
There is a significant difference in the energy generation mix of Germany and Brazil. Brazil has one of the cleanest energy generation mixes worldwide and produces more than 60% of its electricity by hydropower plants. In addition, there is huge potential for further dissemination of renewable sources like wind and solar power.
Brazil
128.53
GW
Germany
111.7
GW
Read more Read less
Sources: BMWi, MME (2017)
Brazil: Brazilian Energy Review 2017
Germany: Renewable Energies in Germany 2017
Share of electricity generated from Renewables
Brazil
80.4 %
Germany
36 %
Read more Read less
Source: BMWi; MME (2017)
Brazil: Brazilian Energy Review 2017
Germany: Renewable Energies in Germany 2017
Electricity produced from Solar and Wind
Brazil
43
TWh
Germany
145
TWh
Read more Read less
Source: MME, ISE fraunhofer (2017)
Brazil: Brazilian Energy Review 2017
Germany: Renewable Energies in Germany 2017
About the Energy Partnership
The members of the steerig comittee
Brazil’s electricity mix is dominated by hydropower and thus is already comparatively clean. However, despite favorable levels of solar radiation and wind speeds, other forms of renewable energy have yet to make a significant contribution towards electricity generation.
In recent years, hydropower production has faced some difficulties due to a lack of rain. It is therefore important to diversify electricity generation – away from fossil fuels and towards the use of wind, solar and biomass. Germany and Brazil made a joint commitment back in 2015 to a full decarbonisation of the global economy in the course of the 21st century.
Read more
What we can do for you
Support Political Dialogue
The German-Brazilian Energy Partnership is a platform supporting a high-level intergovernmental dialogue on energy matters. We prepare and facilitate high-level meetings. We organize the exchange between relevant institutions in Germany and Brazil.
Promote Best-Practice Exchange
Nobody is forced to repeat the mistake of the other. To learn from one another is therefore key to the German-Brazilian Energy Partnership. We arrange and accompany expert delegations. We organize workshops and trainings-on-the-job. All for the sake of promoting what is already there: best-practice.
Connect Business and Politics
We build bridges between politics and business, facilitate access to decision-makers and help you make your position being heard in the partnership countries.
Enhance Energy Transition Communication
Clear communication translates undertakings into understanding. As ambassadors of the energy transition we communicate the Energiewende through various channels. Here and there. Online and offline.
Milestones
The German-Brazilian Energy Partnership was relaunched in 2017. Since then, highly successful workshops and panel discussions have been held to foster a high-level policy dialogue between Germany and Brazil. Through its numerous initiatives and activities, the partnership is constantly enhancing the bilateral cooperation and supporting the transformation of energy systems.
26
November
2019
26 November 2019
Regional Conference Energy Transitions in Latin America: Drivers, Opportunities & Challenges gathered relevant players of the energy sector in Rio de Janeiro
read more
06
November
2019
06 November 2019
Workshop Brazil-Germany on Mini and Microgeneration
read more
04
July
2019
04 July 2019
Energy Day 2019
Read More
08
November
2018
08 November 2018 Workshop on Digitalization in Energy Efficiency
Digitization for Energy Efficiency in Industry
READ MORE
25
June
2018
25 June 2018 German-Brazilian Economic Meeting 2018
36th German-Brazilian Economic Meeting
READ MORE
09
May
2018
09 May 2018 First German-Brazilian Energy Day
Energy Efficiency in the Building Sector
READ MORE
16
April
2018
16 April 2018 Workshop on Auctions
Auctions for the Expansion of Renewable Energies
READ MORE
18
November
2017
18 November 2017 German-Brazilian Economic Meeting 2017
Increasing Energy Efficiency – together with the Industrial Sector!
READ MORE
06
October
2017
06 October 2017 Workshop on Flexible Power Systems
Market Design and Flexibilization in the Power Sector
READ MORE
Load more
Media Elements
Report
Mapping Study of the Brazilian Hydrogen Sector
Download PDF
Report
Combined Wind and Solar Auctions
Download PDF
Brochure
Green Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in Brazil
Policy Paper Download PDF
Brochure
Energy Efficiency Learning Networks
Publication Download PDF
Gallery
Energy Transitions in Latin America: Drivers, opportunities & challenges
Open gallery
Gallery
Energy Day 2019
Open gallery
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Partners
An Initiative by
German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
www.bmwi.de
The central task of the Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy is to reinvigorate the social market economy, allowing it to stay innovative in the long term and strengthen Germany’s social fabric. The Ministry has the legal, administrative and coordinating mandate to fulfill this mission, e.g. in the area of energy.
Ministério de Minas e Energia / Ministry of Mining and Energy
www.mme.gov.br
The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) is in charge of the formulation and implementation of all policies for the energy sector, according to the guidelines defined by the National Council on Energy Policy, which is the Inter-ministerial advisory board to the Brazilian President - CNPE. The main attributions of the MME include setting out government policies, managing inventory studies and auctions.
Ministerio das Relações Exteriores / Ministry for Foreign Relations
www.itamaraty.gov.br
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs-MRE, also known as Itamaraty, is responsible for Brazilian foreign policy and international relations in bilateral, regional and multilateral levels. The Ministry advises the President of the Republic on foreign policy and on the implementation of diplomatic relations with States and international organizations.
Pátria Amada Brasil
www.brasil.gov.br
The Federal Government of Brazil is the Executive Branch within the Union. It is headquartered in Brasília (DF) and is responsible for the interests of the federal administration throughout the national territory.
Implemented by
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
www.giz.de/en
The Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) provides international cooperation services for sustainable development and international education work. It is dedicated to building a future worth living around the world. GIZ has over 50 years of experience in a wide variety of areas and works in more than 120 countries.
In Cooperation With
Câmara de Comércio e Indústria Brasil-Alemanha / German-Brazilian Chamber of Industry and Commerce
www.ahkbrasilien.com.br/pt/
The Brazil-Germany Chamber (AHK Brazil) is an institution that develops a set of activities with the objective of attracting investments to the geographic region under its influence, expanding bilateral trade, encouraging cooperation between the Mercosur countries and the European Union, and strengthening the business of its members.
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética / Energy Planning Company
www.epe.gov.br
The Energy Research Office- EPE aims at supporting the Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) energy policies with studies and research on energy planning covering electricity, oil, natural gas and its derivatives and biofuels. Their studies cover the areas of engineering, economics, modeling, policy and environment and where they overlap. | {
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4,391 | What is the actual daily life experience of being a female/queer/ transgender/gender fluid person in the most gender equal and privileged countries in the world?
Read More
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4,392 | Works by Beata Kozlowska, Jean Elliot, Elaine Mullings & Tomasz Stando Private View: Friday 13th of March 2009 – 6 pm to 11 pm Exhibition
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arts, culture, entertainment, exhibition, Micro-Marco vision, UK
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4,393 | In this article: business, california, copyrightinfringement, copyrightoffice, dmca, electronicarts, EntertainmentSoftwareAssociation, esa, gaming, internet, made, microsoft, museumofartanddigitalentertainment, nintendo, sony, theesa, ubisfot
Getty Images/iStockphoto
The video game industry as a whole does a poor job of preserving its history -- especially when it comes to online games. The Entertainment Software Association -- responsible for E3; counts Electronic Arts, Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo and Ubisoft as members -- is petitioning the US Copyright Office to not make DMCA exemptions for abandoned online multiplayer games. It's an effort to block the folks at the Museum of Art and Digital Entertainment in California who would like to see an exemption made to how the DMCA treats titles like the original Everquest.
The ESA's reasoning for opposing? It thinks that letting third parties operate online servers will result, more or less, in a library or museum committing copyright breach. Giving access to the proprietary server code could hypothetically lead to preservation societies building their own infrastructure and charging for access. Thus, they'd be a direct competitor to the original developers and publishers, which is something the ESA isn't exactly keen on.
As Torrent Freak notes, MADE already does this with offline games, charging $10 admission for all-you-can-play games. This is something the ESA doesn't seem too happy about either, saying that non-profit organizations "enjoy no special immunity" from copyright violations. There's also a worry that it'd lead to more people jailbreaking their consoles so they could play online from home. In its (admittedly weak) defense, the ESA says its members do work to maintain gaming's history.
"The prevalence of reissues of older games belies any claim that game companies lack incentive to preserve older titles," the ESA writes. Sure, but those remasters rarely if ever feature the full-fat original online multiplayer experience. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare Remastered, for instance, only shipped with a handful of the original game's classic maps.
The ESA suggests the proposed DMCA expansion should be rejected, saying that although the Copyright Office has said "properly crafted exemption for preservationists can satisfy their needs without impacting the market," the expansion is "far from properly crafted."
"Although the proponents purport to seek the broadened exemption for the purpose of preservation, proponents appear to view recreational gameplay as within the ambit of 'preservation,'" the ESA writes. "Online multiplayer gameplay is not necessary for preservation or for subsequent scholarly purposes."
Tell that to the academics studying human behavior in online multiplayer games, or, in a few years, to someone who wants to play vanilla World of Warcraft so they can see how their parents met.
There's a 40-plus page legal document at the source link below if you want to read the ESA's full reasoning. The DMCA exemption was made in 2015 and needs to be renewed every three years. The ESA moved to block online games from being protected back then as well. Last October, the Copyright Office said it didn't find "any meaningful opposition" to renewing the original DMCA exemption.
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4,395 | From 1982, Year of our foundation, we promote and protect the image of Barolo wine and its territory, without pursuing profit.
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We try to explain Barolo as a rich and skilful blend of colours, flavours and fragrances, which concentrate in a glass and reflect not only the science of the Territory, but also the emotions of the tradition and the sensations of the moment
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In the ancient storage cellars of the Castle of Barolo, we host over 120 labels of Barolo selected by our Technical Committee of Tasting “Armando Cordero” next to the Barolo Chinato and some local native DOC
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4,396 | Today, Matt and Erin talk about EPA's review of a popular neonic called imidacloprid. This and other active neonic ingredients have been blamed for declines in honey bee health. They share their thoughts on implications for cancellation, bee health and non-target insects. | {
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Steve Jobs Systematically Cultivated His Creativity. You Can Too.
What Jobs did intuitively to unlock his creativity has been scientifically proven to work.
By Derek Doepker August 3, 2017
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
The Apple brand is synonymous with creative product design as well as appealing to the creative artist. This was in large part thanks to the work of Steve Jobs, whose creativity was a guiding force in his approach to leadership, product design and marketing. While there’s no doubt that Jobs had a naturally creative brain, thanks to modern research, we can see that Jobs’ artistry was also due to practices every entrepreneur can adopt to enhance creative thinking.
William Stevens | Getty Images
Steve Jobs
Enhancing creativity is especially important in today’s dynamic technological world. A company that fails to continuously innovate will quickly become obsolete. Creativity is essential for entrepreneurs to guard against disruption and maintain relevance. Here are three methods that Jobs used to enhance his creativity that you can immediately implement to increase your problem solving abilities and innovative thinking.
Related: 3 Surprising Ways to Unlock Your Creativity
Pursuing diverse interests.
After dropping out of college, Jobs decided to pursue classes that interested him, such as calligraphy. While there was no foreseeable practical purpose to taking this class, in his famous Stanford commencement speech, he shared how that class was responsible for the Macintosh’s beautiful typography.
Jobs said, “Creativity is just connecting things. When you ask creative people how they did something, they feel a little guilty because they didn't really do it, they just saw something. It seemed obvious to them after a while.”
Research backs up what Jobs intuitively understood. Psychologist Scott Barry Kaufman says that openness to new experience is the strongest personality trait for predicting creative achievement. “Thinking outside the box” may more accurately be understood as “Drawing from different boxes.” It appears that a “jack of all trades” may in fact be a potential master of creativity, and this explains why Jobs praised liberal arts and humanities.
While openness to new experiences may be a personality trait established by early adulthood, everyone can choose to explore new experiences. Taking a note from Jobs, the key is to not limit one’s criteria to what’s immediately practical. Rather, the aim should be challenging yourself to explore experiences that simply pique your interest. Study businesses that are unrelated to your own. Occassionally change your routines to unlock new discoveries.
We can also learn from Jobs about staying focused in light of diverse pursuits. He said, “Innovation is saying no to 1,000 things.” While it’s beneficial to juggle a variety of interests up to a point, this must be balanced with the discipline to say “no” to what could ultimately become distractions from one’s top priorities.
Related: 6 Habits That Took These Titans to the Top
Walking
In the book Becoming Steve Jobs, Brent Schlender notes that Jobs often took brainstorming walks with others. Research now confirms that Jobs' walks can help unlock creative insights.
In the book Neurowisdom, neuroscience researchers Mark Waldman and Chris Manning show the difference in brain activity between the “decision making mind” and the “creative mind.” When one is focused on a task and working on completing a goal, he or she is using the decision making mind. “Aha moments” often come when one takes a break from a task and engages the creative mind by allowing for mind-wandering activities like daydreaming. According to Stanford research, walking can boost creative output by 60 percent.
Entrepreneurs can use walking, both alone and in groups, to boost their creative thinking. When stuck on a task with no apparent solution, a short walk can be the perfect catalyst to trigger an “aha” insight. If walking isn’t an option, an alternative way to engage the creative mind is taking a short break from being task focused to allow yourself time for relaxation and daydreaming.
Related: 5 Easy Ways to Make Your Team Healthier and More Productive
Meditation
After dropping out of Reed College, Jobs spent a few months in India where he discovered and embraced Zen Buddhist meditation practices. Jobs was so enraptured with Zen that he considered moving to Japan to further his practice.
Jobs told his biographer Walter Isaacson, "If you just sit and observe, you will see how restless your mind is. If you try to calm it, it only makes things worse, but over time it does calm, and when it does, there's room to hear more subtle things -- that’s when your intuition starts to blossom and you start to see things more clearly and be in the present more.”
Jobs' meditation practice helped him develop creativity. Meditative practices, such as “open-monitoring training,” encourage divergent thinking, a process of allowing the generation of many new ideas, which is a key part of creative innovation.
Particular meditation practices not only enhance creativity, but can also help develop empathy. It was Jobs' empathy with customers that gave him insight into delivering what they wanted, even if the customers weren't able to describe what they desired. Entrepreneurs can practice mindfulness meditation to enhance their creativity, increase emotional intelligence and reduce stress.
While Jobs' genius can’t be boiled down to only three practices, what we do know is that greater inspiration is available when we understand how to tap into the creative mind. As entrepreneurs, we can also learn from Jobs to hire those who bring a new perspective and creativity that we lack. Collaboration, conducted in the correct way, is another critical component for creative breakthroughs.
Apply these three practices, and introduce them to your team to get the creative edge you need in today’s demanding marketplace.
Written By
Derek Doepker
Derek Doepker is a rock guitar player turned author, speaker and consultant on mind, body and business success. As a musician, he's learned how to bring harmony and creativity to businesses to amplify their productivity, performance and profits. Discover more at DerekDoepker.com
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} | 181.7 | 188 | https://www.epa.gov.tw/eng/6D50DC154DF3A0AB | www.epa.gov.tw | 1.015957 | [
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