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on friday, the american flag was raised over the reopened us embassy in havana for the first time in 54 years. a man chats on his mobile phone, close to a pair of cuban and us flags strapped to a bicycle taxi, at a public wi-fi hotspot in havana, wednesday, aug. 12, 2015. the us embassy in cuba will hold a ceremony on friday, aug. 14, to raise the us flag, to mark its reopening on havana<u+2019>s historic waterfront. people sit with us flags outside the us embassy in havana, august 14, 2015. us secretary of state john kerry travels to cuba on friday to raise the us flag at the recently restored american embassy in havana, another symbolic step in the thawing of relations between the two cold war-era foes. us marines raise the us flag while being watched over by us secretary of state john kerry (r.) at the us embassy in havana, august 14, 2015. us marines raised the american flag at the embassy in cuba for the first time in 54 years on friday, symbolically ushering in an era of renewed diplomatic relations between the two cold war-era foes. when secretary of state john kerry raises the stars and stripes over the reopened us embassy in havana friday, there will no longer be a menacing billboard blaring an anti-imperialist message from across the street. and no longer will cuban security authorities be taking down the name of every cuban citizen entering the american diplomatic mission <u+2013> as happened for years until the two long-estranged governments reopened their respective embassies last month. but as symbolically significant as friday<u+2019>s ceremony along havana<u+2019>s waterfront malec<u+00f3>n will be <u+2013> it will be the first visit to cuba by a secretary of state since 1945 <u+2013> it remains unclear how much real change the warm-up in us-cuba relations will bring. for both bilateral government relations and the cuban people, experts in us-cuba relations predict change will occur, but will be slow. <u+201c>cuba is changing, but that change is not happening fast enough. cuba needs to speed up the process of change,<u+201d> says carlos saladrigas, chairman of the cuba study group, an organization of cuban-americans supporting president obama<u+2019>s opening to cuba. change, he says, will be slowed by drags on the process both from inside cuba and from the united states. the us embargo, which can be lifted only by congress, will continue to act as a brake on change, he says, even as the cuban government<u+2019>s fears of losing control of the country<u+2019>s political and economic evolution join in slowing things down. <u+201c>cuba cannot change as long as the embargo is in force,<u+201d> says mr. saladrigas, who blames the trade impediment for limiting the ability of us businesses to interact with cubans and encourage their entrepreneurial spirit. he also blames a timid and wary cuban government for the slow pace of change. noting that the communist government<u+2019>s much-ballyhooed list of allowed private-sector self-employment activities has not changed in four years, he says, <u+201c>that<u+2019>s been a disappointment.... you cannot ignite an economy by going so slow.<u+201d> evidence that the us also intends to go slow in pressing for change in cuba could be found in friday<u+2019>s agenda. secretary kerry<u+2019>s day in havana is expected to be heavy on symbolism yet cautious in terms of its political engagement with cubans. the us has not invited to friday<u+2019>s flag-raising ceremony any of the political dissidents it has worked with for years to foster political change in cuba, state department officials confirmed wednesday. in interviews this week, kerry characterized the ceremony as a <u+201c>government-to-government<u+201d> affair that wouldn<u+2019>t have the space to accommodate everyone. he said he would meet later in the day with dissidents and human rights groups. kerry is now expected to hold a separate flag-raising ceremony with human rights advocates and other representatives of cuban civil society at the residence of the embassy<u+2019>s chief of mission. state department officials said the two-ceremony solution would avoid the prospect of cuban government officials boycotting the embassy ceremony <u+2013> a slap that would have gotten reestablished relations off to a sour start. but critics of mr. obama<u+2019>s normalization of relations with cuba quickly jumped on the relegation of dissidents to a side ceremony as further proof of what they see as the administration<u+2019>s willingness to bend over backward to meet cuban government demands. <u+201c>cuban dissidents are the legitimate representatives of the cuban people and it is they who deserve america<u+2019>s red carpet treatment, not castro regime officials,<u+201d> republican presidential candidate and florida sen. marco rubio said in a statement wednesday. he called kerry<u+2019>s arrangement for a separate low-key meeting with dissidents a <u+201c>slap in the face<u+201d> to cuba<u+2019>s democracy advocates. the sanitized guest list at the embassy<u+2019>s flag-raising ceremony may ensure attendance by high-level cuban officials, but that does not mean the cuban government has gotten over its suspicions of us intentions, say some cuban experts close to the government<u+2019>s thinking. a sizable share of the cuban government and political elite suspects that the heralded obama opening to cuba is really only a <u+201c>change in tactics,<u+201d> says carlos alzugaray treto, a professor at the university of havana<u+2019>s center for hemispheric and united states studies. the fear is that the new us approach to cuba is still about <u+201c>regime change,<u+201d> he says, only now it<u+2019>s in seductive clothing. <u+201c>politically it<u+2019>s like the roberta flack song, it<u+2019>s <u+2018>killing me softly with [your] song,<u+2019> <u+201d> says professor alzugaray, who like saladrigas spoke thursday on a conference call arranged by the wilson center in washington. the mantra for that part of the government is, <u+201c>we cannot trust these guys,<u+201d> alzugaray says. reinforcing that sector<u+2019>s skepticism is a continuation of what the former cuban diplomat calls <u+201c>subversive policies towards cuba,<u+201d> including us government tv and radio broadcasts into cuba, the us military base on cuban territory at guant<u+00e1>namo, and especially the embargo. <u+201c>the embargo is the symbol of the regime-change policy of the us towards cuba,<u+201d> he says. still, alzugaray says change is coming to cuba, nudged forward by more than just the normalization of relations with the us. other <u+201c>big change elements<u+201d> at work, he says, are a continuing transition to a new economic model and the country<u+2019>s <u+201c>generational transition<u+201d> <u+2013> from the generation of the revolution to a much younger generation. those forces will also usher in new pressures for political change and an <u+201c>expansion of the democratic bases of cuban society,<u+201d> alzugaray says. but those pressures for change will continue to be restrained by the decades-old <u+201c>siege mentality<u+201d> in cuba engendered by the us trade embargo. so his advice to americans who want to see change in cuba? lift the embargo. <u+201c>if you lift that,<u+201d> he says, <u+201c>there will be more stimulus for a debate in cuba.<u+201d>

us flag flies again in cuba: how much real change is coming to the country? (+video)

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one of the most vexing challenges of the trump phenomenon is how the press should deal with it. there<u+2019>s never been anything quite like it and journalism is having to try to navigate this campaign as the rules are being rewritten on the fly. back in the beginning, <u+00a0>the huffington post had tried to keep the whole thing in perspective by relegating the campaign to their entertainment pages but eventually had to move it back to the politics section when it became clear that republican voters were actually taking trump seriously. today they cover him like a normal politician but append a standard disclaimer at the end of their articles about him pointing out that he<u+2019>s an extremist with noxious views. trump has brought the tabloids into the race already, with his good friend david pecker, the publisher of the national enquirer, helpfully providing smears of his rival ted cruz during the primary. now pecker has hired notorious clinton hater dick morris as the enquirer<u+2019>s chief political correspondent so it<u+2019>s likely trump will be fed a steady diet of tabloid tid-bits which he will undoubtedly share with his adoring fans. so far, the mainstream media has resisted the temptation to run with clinton gossip stories mainly because there<u+2019>s so much coming over the transom about trump. but they are out there<u+00a0>and are likely to seep into the coverage as the hillary smear industry gets up and running. there<u+2019>s nothing new in that but trump is a master of tabloid media so we can probably expect this to play a different role than it has in the past. tv news organizations, meanwhile, have been notorious for allowing trump to flout their rules. they happily let him call in rather than appear on camera and give him hours of airtime in the hope that he<u+2019>ll say something news worthy which, to be honest, he often does. his lies and reversals are so constant and so blatant that reporters seem to be almost paralyzed as he slithers and slides out of their grasp. he is<u+00a0>sui generis<u+00a0>and nobody knows quite what to do about it. media critics have been weighing in recently as the situation has become acute.<u+00a0>npr<u+2019>s <u+201c>on the media<u+201d> correspondent bob garfield<u+00a0>has been particularly vociferous lately imploring the media to recognize the threat that donald trump poses to america. in this column he takes them to task for covering the trump candidacy <u+201c>like a bemused recap of house of cards.<u+201d> he wrote: the rapacious cbs chairman les moonves and the cable-newslike channels are delighted at the spectacle; disaster is always great for ratings. but this is not a show, to be consumed and titillated by and parsed. it is a conflagration of hatred and authoritarianism on its way to consuming us, or at least that which makes us us. trumpism is raging out of control and the fourth estate responds how? by going through the motions. the usual false balance. the usual staged cable bickering. the usual dry contextual analysis. the usual intermittent truth-squading to garnish our careless daily servings of uncontested hate speech, incitement and manifest lies. the usual reluctance to <u+201c>be part of the story<u+201d> <u+2014> which, in fact, we are inextricably part of because we in large measure created it by giving oxygen to his every incendiary outrage and being our soundbitten, compulsively enabling selves<u+2026>[the]reflexive focus on the latest development, the political ebb and flow and the architecture of the coming election simply buries the lede <u+2014> that the man is monstrously unfit and un-american <u+2014> and normalizes the grossly, tragically abnormal. and then he tells them what he<u+00a0>really<u+00a0>thinks which is that they are falling into the trap of false equivalence between the parties, fear of right-wing pressure and a reluctance to call a fascist a fascist. margaret sullivan, former ny times ombudsman and current media columnist for the washington post<u+00a0>has similar concerns,<u+00a0>particularly the notion that the media is pursuing a <u+201c>false equivalence<u+201d> rather than simple truth-telling: [t]his perceived need to push for <u+201c>fairness<u+201d> for trump <u+2014> as if he has been mistreated or put at a disadvantage <u+2014> baffles me. trump gets far more media attention than other candidates, if only because he says such outrageous things, commanding the daily news cycle over and over. wayne barrett, the investigative reporter who has been covering trump for 40 years (and whose reporting brought about trump<u+2019>s first federal grand jury investigation) told me in an interview: <u+201c>the great failing is not in print media. but the campaigns occur on the screen.<u+201d><u+2026> many hard-hitting stories from the new york times, the washington post, the daily beast and elsewhere have received little follow-up on tv <u+2014> <u+201c>not one minute of air time that i<u+2019>ve seen<u+201d> <u+2014> but the slightest hint of a new angle on hillary clinton<u+2019>s email practices can occupy most of a news cycle. (an exception was tv<u+2019>s attention, last week, to complaints about trump university.) jay rosen, the new york university professor and author of the pressthink blog, is concerned about how this concept of fairness might play out. <u+201c>does it mean <u+2018>we can<u+2019>t take sides,<u+2019> or does it mean <u+2018>let<u+2019>s treat unequal things equally<u+2019>?<u+201d> the latter, which he called <u+201c>distortion toward the middle,<u+201d> ought to be prevented, he said. the nation<u+2019>s<u+00a0>eric alterman wrote about the print media<u+2019>s propensity for false equivalence as well, focusing particularly on the new york times: from the earliest days of this campaign, times reporters have been transparently eager to blame <u+201c>both sides,<u+201d> often regardless of circumstance. last november, times reporter michael barbaro devoted a lengthy article to the gop candidates<u+2019> most brazen lies, albeit one filled with euphemisms for the word <u+201c>lie.<u+201d> carly fiorina <u+201c>refused<u+201d> to back down from a story about planned parenthood that was <u+201c>roundly disputed,<u+201d> he wrote. ben carson <u+201c>harshly turned the questions<u+201d> about inconsistencies in his life story <u+201c>back on the reporters who asked them.<u+201d> donald trump <u+201c>utters plenty of refutable claims<u+201d> and <u+201c>set the tone for the embroidery<u+201d> by creating <u+201c>an entirely new category of overstatement in american politics.<u+201d> but guess what? <u+201c>the tendency to bend facts is bipartisan.<u+201d> how do we know? well, gary hart and bill clinton chose not to confess their infidelities to the nation during election cycles that took place a generation ago. and apparently hillary clinton once mistakenly described herself as being the granddaughter of four immigrants when, in fact, her paternal grandmother was born shortly after her family arrived in the united states<u+2014>an error she quickly corrected. barbaro also found clinton<u+2019>s explanations about her personal and state department e-mail accounts to be unsatisfactory. he wrote that she had <u+201c>used multiple devices, like an ipad, to read and send e-mail,<u+201d> even though she<u+2019>d said she <u+201c>preferred<u+201d> to read them all on a single device. he failed to note that the ipad didn<u+2019>t even exist when clinton set up her e-mail account, nor did he explain why expressing a preference counts as bending the truth here is an example of false equivalence from just this week. nobody has done more to probe donald trump<u+2019>s noxious views than cnn<u+2019>s jake tapper. his grilling of the candidate over his bigoted comments about the federal judge overseeing his trump university lawsuit in california was as good as it gets and he received many kudos for his aggressive journalism. he continued to report on trump on his show monday but also featured<u+00a0>this harsh criticism of hillary clinton<u+00a0>in which he lambasted the state department<u+2019>s stated inability to release emails pertaining to her work on the trans pacific partnership trade deal to reporter david sirota until after the election. he took on a very aggressive tone, editorializing about the importance of releasing this important information when people are deciding whether to vote for hillary clinton or donald trump.<u+00a0> however, he notes that while clinton was president obama<u+2019>s secretary of state she openly advocated for the deal in glowing terms, even calling it the <u+201c>gold standard<u+201d>, facts which have been known for years and have been well hashed out on the campaign trail and in the debates with bernie sanders. now she says she has changed her mind and is against the deal.<u+00a0>politifact called it a flip-flop. so what exactly do they think they will learn about her position that they don<u+2019>t already know? maybe she was more involved than she says she was, which would be interesting, but somewhat meaningless since we know she advocated strongly for it all over the world. in the end,<u+00a0>you either believe she<u+2019>s really changed her mind or you don<u+2019>t and these documents from years ago will not shed any new light on that. and yet the implication was that clinton was up to something nefarious with those <u+201c>damn emails<u+201d> again. i don<u+2019>t mean to pick on tapper. he<u+2019>s a great journalist, one of the best on cable news. the temptation to try to <u+201c>even things out<u+201d> with this sort of coverage has to be overwhelming when a personality like trump dominates the coverage the way he does. it must feel to a straight mainstream journalist as if they<u+2019>re piling on him every day and it looks like they<u+2019>re being partisan and unfair. certainly the right wing is accusing them of that non-stop <u+2014> as they have been for more than 30 years. but the result of this <u+201c>distortion toward the middle<u+201d> <u+00a0>as jay rosen calls it, has the perverse effect of normalizing trump and pathologizing clinton in a way that equalizes them to trump<u+2019>s advantage. there is no equivalence between them. he is an unqualified, unfit, unhinged authoritarian demagogue and she is a mainstream democratic party politician.<u+00a0> let<u+2019>s hope the press listens to some of these critics and does a serious gut check whenever they are tempted to <u+201c>balance<u+201d> the coverage in this election by going easy on trump and hard on clinton. it<u+2019>s dangerous.

normalizing trump, demonizing hillary: the media<u+2019>s shameful strategy for the 2016 election

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speaking at tuskegee university in alabama, obama told the audience that when her husband was running for office in 2008, she faced questions which she said were not typical for other candidates' wives. "as potentially the first african-american first lady, i was also the focus of another set of questions and speculations, conversations sometimes rooted in the fears and misperceptions of others," she told the class of 2015. "was i too loud or too emasculating? or was i too soft? too much of a mom and not enough of a career woman?" obama referenced the cover of the july 2008 issue of the new yorker, in which obama was depicted with her husband as terrorist enemies of the united states. "then there was the first time i was on a magazine cover. it was a cartoon drawing of me with a huge afro and a machine gun. now, yeah, it was satire, but if i'm really being honest, it knocked me back a bit. it made me wonder 'just how are people seeing me?'" in her nearly 30-minute speech, the first lady recalled other particularly tough moments, including being referred to on fox news as her "husband's crony of color" and "obama's baby mama." she also recalled a moment on the campaign trail when she gave her husband a fist bump to celebrate a primary win, later to be referred to by an anchor on that network as a "terrorist fist jab." "back in those days, i had a lot of sleepless nights worrying what people thought of me," she recalled. obama added that she let the criticism get to the point where she would wonder if she was hurting her husband's chances of becoming president, while also fearing what her daughters would think. the first lady said eventually the only thing she could do to prevent others from defining her was to "ignore all of the noise." "i had to be true to myself and the rest would work itself out," she recounted, to cheers from the audience. obama also said that once she became first lady and was working on platforms and issues that were important to her she was once again criticized for her choices not "being bold enough." "so i immersed myself in the policy details. i worked with congress on legislation, gave speeches to ceos, military generals and hollywood executives." obama said. "but i also worked to ensure that my efforts would resonate with kids and families -- and that meant doing things in a creative and unconventional way. so, yeah, i planted a garden, and hula-hooped on the white house lawn with kids. i did some mom dancing on tv ... and at the end of the day, by staying true to the me i've always known, i found that this journey has been incredibly freeing." <u+2013> in 2010, first lady michelle obama started let's move!, an initiative to address childhood obesity and help all our kids grow up healthy. here she participates in musical activities with students in an event at orr elementary school in washington in 2013. <u+2013> the theme for the fifth year anniversary of let's move! is: celebrate, challenge, champion. the first lady joins in at the healthy kids fair on the south lawn of the white house in 2009. <u+2013> across america, cities, towns and counties are supporting healthy afters-school programs and youth sports leagues. here kids attend a let's move! event at woldenberg park in new orleans in 2010. <u+2013> through the initiative, millions of kids are attending healthier day care centers, where fruits and vegetables have replaced cookies and juice. michelle obama speaks at a let's move! walmart announcement at the arc in washington in 2010. <u+2013> nearly 9 million kids participate in the let's move! active schools program and get 60 minutes of physical activity a day. nearly 5 million kids will be attending healthier after-school programs in the next five years. the first lady meets with students in new hampshire estates elementary school in silver spring, maryland, in 2010. <u+2013> the first lady speaks about let's move! at the visitors center in red rock canyon, nevada, in 2010. <u+2013> childhood obesity rates have finally stopped rising -- and obesity rates are actually falling among our youngest children, according to let's move! initiative. the first lady attends the white house kitchen garden harvest on the south lawn in 2010. <u+2013> while let's move! has made strides in helping kids become healthy, the statistics are still daunting. here she attends a partnership event with chicago blackhawks and washington capitals players on the south lawn of the white house in 2011. <u+2013> first lady michelle obama and ellen degeneres dance during a taping of "the ellen degeneres show" marking the second anniversary of let's move! in burbank, california, in 2012. <u+2013> america still spends nearly $200 billion a year on obesity-related health care costs, and that figure will jump to nearly $350 billion a year by 2018, according to let's move! campaign. michelle obama visits the fresh grocer store in philadelphia in 2010. <u+2013> the first lady attends a chef's demonstration with third-grade students from pocantico hill school and john f. kennedy magnet school, before a luncheon at blue hill farm in pocantico hills, new york, in 2010. <u+2013> first lady says she is committed to giving kids the healthy futures they deserve. here she works with chefs and students in the white house kitchen garden on the south lawn in 2010. obama added that she has since learned to focus on her "own truth," and suggested that the graduates of tuskegee university, a historically black university, will have to do the same in life. she told the graduates they would face hardships in the future, warning that no matter how hard the students work or where they rise to in life, for some people it won't be enough. obama said this is the fuel for much of the unrest across communities in america, making a reference to some of the racial controversies being played out in several american cities. "all of that is gonna be a heavy burden to carry. it can feel isolating. it can make you feel like your life somehow doesn't matter ... and as we've seen over the past few years, those feelings are real. they're rooted in decades of structural challenges that have made too many folks feel frustrated and invisible, and those feelings are playing out in communities like baltimore and ferguson and so many others across this country," obama said. the first lady concluded by saying that while those feelings are real, they are never an excuse for the graduates to give up or lose hope but instead provide a better example of how to succeed. "it teaches us that when we pull ourselves out of the emotional depths and we challenge our frustrations into studying and organizing and banding together, then we can build ourselves and our communities up," she said. "we can take on those deep rooted problems, and together, together we can overcome anything." actor robert de niro addressed the class of 2015 during new york university's tisch school of the arts commencement ceremony on may 22, 2015. de niro, who quit high school to pursue an acting career, told grads: "you made it <u+2014> and, you're f<u+2014>ed." click through to see more big-name speakers at universities across the country. rock star and philanthropist jon bon jovi performs a new song during graduation ceremonies at rutgers university on may 21. comedian maya rudolph addressed graduates of tulane university in new orleans on may 16. first lady michelle obama delivered the commencement address at tuskegee university on may 9. she'll also speak at oberlin college in ohio on may 25. president barack obama delivered the commencement address at lake area technical institute in watertown, south dakota, on may 8. south dakota was the last of the 50 states obama had not visited as president. he also spoke at the u.s. coast guard academy in new london, connecticut, on may 20. south carolina gov. nikki haley delivered a commencement address at the university of south carolina in columbia on may 8. republican u.s. sen. tim scott also delivered a commencement address at the university of south carolina on may 9. oscar-winning actor anthony hopkins was the graduation speaker for pepperdine university's undergraduate seaver college on may 2. u.s. secretary of education arne duncan spoke at the georgia institute of technology in atlanta on may 2. nato supreme allied commander europe u.s. gen. philip m. breedlove also spoke at georgia tech on may 2. walter isaacson, author and president and ceo of the aspen institute, was the senior day speaker at vanderbilt university in nashville on may 7. "good morning america" anchor amy robach addressed graduates from university of georgia on may 8. robach is a graduate of the athens, georgia, university. academy award-winning actor denzel washington delivered the commencement speech at dillard university in new orleans on may 9. jason kilar, the co-founder and ceo of vessel and founding ceo of hulu, delivered the commencement address at the university of north carolina, chapel hill on may 10. kilar graduated from carolina in 1993. paul farmer, right, co-founder of partners in health, was the commencement speaker at duke university in durham, north carolina, on may 10. author and human rights advocate salman rushdie spoke at emory university's commencement in atlanta on may 11. filmmaker ken burns spoke at the commencement of washington university in st. louis on may 15. actor matthew mcconaughey was the speaker at the university of houston's commencement ceremony on may 15. the university was initially reluctant to release what mcconaughey would be paid for the appearance, the houston chronicle reported, but eventually shared the details: $135,000, plus travel fees and commission for his agency. mcconaughey is expected to give the money to his jk livin foundation. comedian ed helms, shown earlier, addressed graduates at the university of virginia in charlottesville on may 15. former u.s. president george w. bush spoke at commencement at southern methodist university in dallas on may 16. paralympic skiing medalist, former white house official and author bonnie st. john addressed graduates at miami university in ohio on may 16. former secretary of state madeleine albright, shown earlier, addressed students at tufts university on may 16. former secretary of state condoleezza rice spoke at the commencement at william & mary in williamsburg, virginia, on may 16. journalist katie couric, shown at an earlier event, spoke to graduates of the university of wisconsin in madison on may 16. apple ceo tim cook delivered the commencement address at george washington university in washington on may 17. craig melvin, a national correspondent for nbc's "today," spoke at wofford university in spartanburg, south carolina, on may 17. melvin is a 2001 wofford graduate. actress stephanie courtney, known as flo in commercials for progressive insurance, spoke at binghamton university's commencement on may 17. courtney graduated from the binghamton, new york, university in 1992. lawyer kenneth feinberg, who guided the one fund after the boston marathon bombing and the compensation fund for the families of those killed on september 11th, 2001, was the commencement speaker at stonehill college in easton, massachusetts, on may 17. "science guy" bill nye accepted an honorary doctorate degree and spoke to graduates of rutgers university on may 17. u.s. ambassador to the united nations and pulitzer prize-winning author samantha power spoke at the university of pennsylvania on may 18. comedian stephen colbert addressed graduates at wake forest university in winston-salem, north carolina, on may 18. former massachusetts gov. deval patrick will address graduates at harvard university on may 28. film director, screenwriter and producer christopher nolan will address graduates of princeton university in new jersey during class day on june 1. fareed zakaria, host of "gps" on cnn, will address graduates of macaulay honors college at the city university of new york on june 2. megan smith, the chief technology officer of the united states, will give the commencement address at the massachusetts institute of technology on june 5. nbc news chief foreign correspondent richard engel will speak at stanford university's commencement on june 14. virginia rometty, chairwoman, president and chief executive officer of ibm, will give the commencement address at northwestern university in evanston, illinois, on june 19.

michelle obama reflects on pressure she felt in '08

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federal laws already allow people across the country the option to register to vote at the dmv. but oregon and california's laws are pioneering because they do it automatically. it's hard to overstate how novel this concept is for the us. throughout much of united states history, governments frequently put up barriers aimed at preventing people from voting, such as property ownership requirements, poll taxes, or literacy tests. gradually, many of these barriers have fallen to make it easier for people to register. however, many states, including california, still close off registration weeks to a month before an election <u+2014> an artificial obstacle that can prevent perfectly qualified people from voting if they simply miss a deadline. these new proposals remove those obstacles. oregon's law will register all adult citizens in the dmv's database, while california's law will be implemented more gradually, as people get or renew their licenses or state ids, or change their addresses. but both make it the government's responsibility to ensure that all eligible voters are registered. so it's a big deal that governments are now trying to make it easier and easier to vote, rather than more difficult. matt yglesias has argued for going even further and enshrining an affirmative right to vote in our constitution <u+2014> read his case here. in both california and oregon, republicans opposed these proposals, but generally didn't argue against the principle of easing registration. instead, the criticisms have fallen along two main lines. first, critics have argued that since voter registration data is more publicly accessible than dmv information, automatically adding voters to the rolls could pose privacy concerns. however, supporters respond that people can always opt out. second, some republicans have cited concerns about voter fraud <u+2014> usually about potential registration of unauthorized immigrants. but while california began issuing driver's licenses to unauthorized immigrants this year, these licenses are distinctively marked, and people with them would not be registered to vote automatically. and oregon requires proof of citizenship for all driver's license applicants. meanwhile, national democrats are increasingly adopting mandatory voter registration as a major cause. in a speech on voting rights this june, hillary clinton called on all states to automatically register citizens to vote when they turn 18, unless they choose to opt out. and legislators in 15 other states have introduced bills similar to oregon's new law <u+2014> the brennan center is tracking them here.

california governor signs bill to automatically register people to vote

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tonight's televised event offers the democratic hopefuls their last shared stage to define themselves and each other. three topics are sure to crop up: experience, wall street ties, and new york-ness. democratic presidential candidate hillary clinton enters the stage after a break in a march 9 debate with her rival, sen. bernie sanders, in miami. their final debate april 14 is likely to be their most definitive. there<u+2019>s a democratic debate tonight in new york and it promises to be perhaps the definitive clash between hillary clinton and bernie sanders of the entire 2016 campaign. why is that? because the stakes are high: former secretary of state clinton continues to lead the race, but can<u+2019>t shake the dogged senator sanders. and this is the last scheduled face-to-face meeting between the pair. it<u+2019>s likely they<u+2019>ll air all their differences over the course of two hours, beginning at 9 p.m. e.d.t. on cnn. time for the obligatory odd number list of things to watch for! we<u+2019>ve scratched out three that are almost certain to come up; beyond that, predictions get chancy. who's the real new yorker? given that the new york primary is tuesday, and the debate is in new york, and sanders was born and raised in new york and clinton was a new york senator, we<u+2019>re pretty sure there<u+2019>s going to be a struggle over who<u+2019>s the true new yorker. edge: sanders. he<u+2019>s got more new york years, he<u+2019>s got a new york accent, and he<u+2019>s never professed fanship for the chicago cubs, as has illinois native clinton. clinton<u+2019>s best play might be to present herself as a new yorker in the statewide sense <u+2013> after all, she represented the state, not the city, in the senate and spent lots of time in upstate towns. who's the most qualified to be president? last week sanders said clinton was not <u+201c>qualified<u+201d> to sit in the oval office because her associated super pac takes corporate contributions, she voted for the war in iraq, and she supports free-trade agreements. he<u+2019>s since walked that back. he says it<u+2019>s really her judgment that is at issue with these positions. edge: clinton. yes, really. it<u+2019>s <u+201c>qualified<u+201d> that<u+2019>s the problem for sanders. he disagrees vehemently on some policy issues with clinton, but in terms of variety of presidential-prep job experience, the former congressional watergate panel staffer, first lady, and national legislator has got more lines on her r<u+00e9>sum<u+00e9> than he does. she<u+2019>ll likely bring up this jibe as a means to remind voters of all the jobs she<u+2019>s had. the $225,000 verizon speech. sanders hasn<u+2019>t made an issue of clinton<u+2019>s use of a personal e-mail server while secretary of state. but he has attacked her over her personal ties to wall street, including her acceptance of big fees for speaking at bank and corporate events. so expect him to bring up the $225,000 honorarium clinton received in may 2013 for speaking at a verizon event. (it was a big applause line at sanders<u+2019>s wednesday night rally in washington square park.) unionized verizon workers are on strike in new york, and both candidates have visited them in an attempt to show solidarity. sanders will use the speech money to try and call into question the sincerity of clinton<u+2019>s appearance. edge: sanders. she<u+2019>s been asked about them for over a year, but clinton still does not have a great answer as to why she raked in such big speech bucks, what she said to earn them, and whether they constitute a conflict of interest. ok, enough with the politics-as-sports aspect of the program. beyond that there is one large underlying factor to keep in mind while watching<u+00a0>tonight<u+2019>s<u+00a0>debate. sanders needs the dynamic of the race to change, or he will lose. clinton is happy with the status quo. as we<u+2019>ve written before, that<u+2019>s because bernie needs blowout wins to have any hope of catching hillary. he<u+2019>s still hundreds of delegates behind, and democrats award delegates proportionately, so he needs to sweep big states. and fast.<u+00a0>otherwise he<u+2019>s got no hope of making up his delegate deficit.

democratic debate: is clinton or sanders the real new yorker? (+video)

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welcome to a 2016 republican presidential primary unlike any other. a crowded field, angry electorate and uncharacteristically divided establishment, not to mention the wild-card role of super pacs, have already made this nominating contest more frenzied and unpredictable than its recent predecessors. it<u+2019>s become conventional wisdom that, whatever the chaos of the early campaign, a winner is most likely to emerge by mid-march. this cycle, we can<u+2019>t be so sure. in fact, the better you understand how the 2016 calendar works, the more likely it seems we can face a messy slog that runs into late spring and possibly even into the july convention<u+2014>an unlikely fate at this point but one that<u+2019>s no longer impossible. for starters, the 2016 calendar quite deliberately avoids having a mid-march nominee. in past cycles<u+2014>2008, 2000 and 1996<u+2014>the eventual gop nominees won quickly by concentrating their attention on the first four or five state contests, leveraging their momentum into a front-loaded super tuesday and becoming inevitable by early to mid-march. after the 2008 gop primary, in which 34 states voted by february 5, republican party leaders concluded that the frontloaded calendar had given john mccain a too-early primary win and allowed the obama-clinton primary to capture a lopsided share of attention. in response, those gop leaders pushed through new calendar rules designed to create a longer, more contested race: they encouraged states to push their primaries later, and required states voting during the first two weeks of march to agree to allocate their delegates proportionally according to the voting results, rather than in a winner-take-all fashion, making those contests far less decisive. (the period is two weeks shorter in 2016 than it was in 2012, but about as many delegates will be chosen.) the 2012 presidential election was the first time the new rules took effect, and they dramatically prolonged the primary season. in every election since 1996, the gop had settled on a clear nominee in march<u+2014>as early as march 4, in mccain<u+2019>s case. although mitt romney did as well as any of his predecessors early on in the 2012 primary<u+2014>effectively tying iowa, winning new hampshire, losing south carolina, and then winning florida and nevada<u+2014>he didn<u+2019>t have enough delegates to secure the nomination until april 24, after 41 states had voted. critics blamed romney<u+2019>s long slog on weakness as a candidate, but the changes in the primary calendar certainly played a major role. the 2016 rules are much the same as the ones that dragged out romney<u+2019>s victory, but the circumstances of the race all point to a longer, harder fight. traditionally, the republican nominee is known when more than 68 percent of the delegates have been chosen, which won<u+2019>t happen until april 19 this year. on top of that, the race itself is far more complex than it was in 2012: romney<u+2019>s anti-establishment challengers petered out relatively quickly, while the two candidates currently leading the polls this year<u+2014>donald trump and ted cruz<u+2014>are themselves anti-establishment candidates, and are continuing to gain momentum just as the voting season begins. what can we expect along the winding path ahead? this will be my seventh cycle working in presidential politics, including previously as a lawyer for the republican national committee and then on george w. bush<u+2019>s, mitt romney<u+2019>s and scott walker<u+2019>s presidential campaigns. more than any of the other primary seasons i<u+2019>ve seen, this is the year to expect the unexpected. for the candidates, the primary calendar is like a giant jigsaw puzzle. they<u+2019>ll need victories in order to gain credibility, and resources in order to pick up the 1,237 delegates that make for a majority (having the most votes doesn<u+2019>t always mean getting the most delegates). they<u+2019>ll need to decide whether to run statewide campaigns, mostly through tv ads, or use advanced data techniques to target specific places<u+2014>whether through ads, old-fashioned door-knocking or other techniques. for the rest of us who are following along, the solution to that jigsaw puzzle may be just as confounding. beginning in iowa on february 1, voters will determine whether gop officials will get their wish of knowing the nominee by march 22, or whether the law of unintended consequences will create an unusually divisive, long and inconclusive primary season that becomes a gift for hillary clinton or bernie sanders. as we prepare for 19 weeks of voting, here<u+2019>s an insider<u+2019>s look at how major calendar moments could bring the nominating process to an end<u+2014>or carry the chaos over to yet another contested round. the 1996, 2000 and 2008 primaries taught campaigns to dump resources into iowa, new hampshire, south carolina and nevada, four states whose symbolic value far outweighs their delegate count. winning them is best. but beating expectations is almost as good<u+2014>it<u+2019>s why you see the 2016 establishment candidates, well behind trump and cruz in the polls, beating up each other instead of the frontrunners. early success brings the transfusion of dollars and volunteers essential to amassing delegates in march and beyond. the 2012 calendar changes and romney<u+2019>s experience have diminished the february states<u+2019> impact, leaving super tuesday on march 1 as the more crucial battle. but the four early states are still a determining factor for the rest of the primary. winning two of the first four states will be a huge boost to any campaign. winning three of four is the only scenario that could produce a march nominee, and right now, trump and cruz are the only candidates who look to have a chance to do that. at minimum, february should clarify the number of gop primary lanes<u+2014>whether there<u+2019>s a <u+201c>trump<u+201d> lane in addition to the traditional <u+201c>establishment<u+201d> and <u+201c>conservative<u+201d> lanes. an oddity of the 2016 race is the absence of a consensus establishment candidate this close to voting<u+2014>especially since that candidate has won every contested primary since 1968. even rarer is that no establishment candidate is within range of trump and cruz in iowa or new hampshire. marco rubio, jeb bush, chris christie and john kasich can take some solace in remembering that newt gingrich won the 2012 south carolina primary without first coming close in either iowa or new hampshire. but that<u+2019>s far from guaranteed. the establishment<u+2019>s weakness could provide a (rare) quick win for a candidate from the conservative or trump lanes, or allow more candidates to win delegates so that the contest continues for longer than is historically the case. as a matter of simple math, the prospect of viable candidates from three ideological lanes rather than two increases the chances of a contested convention. after february<u+2019>s primaries<u+2014>essentially, four statewide races<u+2014>the nominating contest becomes a national delegate hunt. only 10 primaries, with 16.2 percent of the delegates, are true winner-take-all states, in which the top vote getter receives all the delegates. the rest of the states allow multiple candidates to win their delegates by choosing them in one of three ways: proportionally (31 states or territories, amounting to 54.5 percent of delegates); by congressional district, with the statewide winner getting at-large delegates (10 states, 24.8 percent of delegates); or in a caucus or convention (five states, 4.5 percent of delegates). march awards the most delegates of any month, with 12 diverse states<u+2014>primarily from the south but also alaska, massachusetts, minnesota, vermont and wyoming<u+2014>voting in proportional contests on super tuesday. these contests will no doubt winnow the field. the question is whether more than two candidates will survive the primaries<u+2019> first demolition derby. to a large extent, that depends how well the campaigns find ways to say they won and their competitors lost, which means march 1-2 will be the cycle<u+2019>s most competitive spin days. a number of candidates are likely to claim <u+201c>victory<u+201d> and viability, based on everything from winning the most states, delegates, congressional districts or delegates in different regions to having the greatest consistent finishes in multiple states to being the leading candidate in the establishment wing. creativity will know no bounds. right now, trump and cruz look like a lock to pick up delegates on super tuesday. but a decisive factor for the rest primary is whether rubio, bush, christie or kasich can do well enough for the establishment forces to awaken and coalesce around one candidate. meanwhile, the stakes are obviously going to get higher at this point: if no candidate puts the nomination away, every day will bring gut-wrenching choices for the surviving campaigns as money and human resources ebb and flow and become pieces on the primary calendar chessboard. this stretch of the nominating process isn<u+2019>t likely to change much. of the eleven states that vote from march 5-12, only michigan awards more than 50 delegates. so unless one candidate runs the table on march 1, there will not be a presumptive nominee by march 12. just 45 percent of the delegates will be decided by this point, all of them (except south carolina) chosen proportionally. that means even a candidate winning 40 percent of the vote across the board will have amassed only 451 delegates, or 34 percent of those needed to win. (for some perspective, trump is currently polling at about 35 percent.) in a multi-candidate field, that<u+2019>s reason for multiple candidates to continue after march 12. the campaigns<u+2019> main challenge at this point will be how successfully they claim they<u+2019>re winning or still in the race. in 2016, the stakes are likely to be higher for the establishment candidates still in the race at this point. the pressure from elected officials and donors will mount on those who have no hope of winning a majority of delegates to agree on a single candidate to challenge trump and/or cruz. yet it<u+2019>s also possible that the trailing three establishment candidates will see a contested convention on the horizon, and decide to continue trying to win delegates to gain leverage at that convention. not enough delegates are chosen between march 16 and april 19 to alter the dynamics of a race. so either a presumptive nominee emerges from the voting on march 15, or the long, cold primary season is destined to continue for at least five more weeks. five big states hold contests on this day, providing campaigns with divergent paths to win delegates. march 15 features the first true winner-take-all statewide primaries (florida and ohio); the direct election of individual delegates in congressional districts (illinois); a winner-take-all contest by congressional district (missouri); and a proportional statewide primary with no minimum threshold to win delegates (north carolina). in florida, bush last year convinced the legislature to make the state a true winner-take-all before rubio appeared to be a threat. now it<u+2019>s hard see either bush or rubio going on to win the nomination if he loses his home state, making florida a death cage competition between the two<u+2014>or a huge opportunity for a third candidate to knock out both and run away with 99 delegates. florida will also be the most expensive state; california and texas are not statewide winner-take-alls, so candidates can target their resources to pick up delegates. but while bush and rubio will have to spend what it takes to win here, the other candidates<u+2014>if they operate on the assumption that bush and rubio have home court advantage<u+2014>don<u+2019>t have to spend time or money competing in florida. similar to bush, kasich last year made his state of ohio true winner-take-all contest. if kasich is still in the race at this point, no other candidate needs to spend a dime in his state, unless they see an opportunity to knock out the governor. even if he fares poorly earlier in the primaries, kasich could stay in the race just to win ohio<u+2019>s 66 delegates; since he controls the state mechanisms enough to be able to control a block of delegates, he could become one of the convention<u+2019>s only real <u+201c>brokers.<u+201d>

why the gop primary could be even crazier than you think

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on this day in 1973, j. fred buzhardt, a lawyer defending president richard nixon in the watergate case, revealed that a key white house tape had an 18...

chris christie fades into darkness

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pick your 2016 gop candidate -- let rush know! vote here

rush limbaugh: left has 'fear and hatred of christianity'

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former president george w. bush reportedly ripped into texas sen. ted cruz at a weekend gathering of donors to his brother's presidential campaign, according to a published report monday. politico reported that bush said of cruz, "i just don't like the guy," at the event, which was held sunday night in denver. according to the report, which cited at least six donors who were at the event, bush said he did not like cruz's de facto alliance with republican front-runner donald trump, who has notably spared cruz from the criticism he has ladled onto other members of the 15-candidate republican field. "he said he found it 'opportunistic' that cruz was sucking up to trump and just expecting all of his support to come to him in the end," one donor told politico when asked to describe bush's remarks about cruz. the report added that the former president had been engaging with amiable discussions about the state of the gop race when cruz's name came up. "i was like, 'holy s---, did he just say that?'" the donor told politico. "i remember looking around and seeing that other people were also looking around surprised." the report also said that bush warned the donors to not underestimate cruz's strength in the south and in texas, where his message of religious liberty is expected to play very well with voters. cruz, in a written statement put out by the campaign on tuesday, said he would not be "reciprocating" after the comments. "i have great respect for george w. bush, and was proud to work on his 2000 campaign and in his administration," he said in the statement. "it's no surprise that president bush is supporting his brother and attacking the candidates he believes pose a threat to his campaign. i have no intention of reciprocating. i met my wife heidi working on his campaign, and so i will always be grateful to him." freddy ford, a spokesman for george w. bush, did not deny that the former president had made the disparaging remarks about cruz when asked to comment by politico. "the first words out of president bush's mouth [sunday] were that jeb is going to earn the nomination, win the election, and be a great president ... he does not view senator cruz as governor bush's most serious rival." ford denied further requests by fox news to address bush's reported "i just don't like the guy" remark. cruz joined george w. bush's presidential campaign in 1999 as a domestic policy adviser and helped put together the legal team that argued bush v. gore before the supreme court in the aftermath of the controversial election. he later served as an associate deputy attorney general in the justice department before becoming solicitor general of texas in 2003. click for more from politico. fox news' mike emanuel and serafin gomez contributed to this report.

george w. bush reportedly rips ted cruz to jeb bush donors

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former house speaker newt gingrich and new jersey gov. chris christie are at the top of trump's vp shortlist, say sources, but both candidates may be less than ideal. presumed republican presidential nominee donald trump is reportedly vetting new jersey gov. chris christie (l.) and former house speaker newt gingrich, both shown in this composite image, as potential running mates. donald trump<u+2019>s long-awaited vice president announcement is getting closer, say sources, as the republican national convention on july 18 quickly approaches. there are reports that new jersey gov. chris christie and former house speaker newt gingrich are at the top of the vp shortlist<u+00a0>and<u+00a0>currently filling out paperwork for the vetting process. other names include alabama sen. jeff sessions, tennessee sen. bob corker, and indiana gov. mike pence. the intense speculation around trump<u+2019>s potential running mate<u+00a0>speaks to the high salience vp picks have had in previous election years. vice presidential picks often serve as a unifying force for a party after a divisive contest for the nomination, a point trump is likely considering as he tries to woo establishment republicans onto his side.<u+00a0>the right vp candidate could help bring party leaders, republican voters, and big donors into the trump fold, all people the campaign desperately needs ahead of the general election. <u+201c>even if it doesn<u+2019>t move the needle much, the vice presidential selection can help compensate for some of the problems and concerns that voters have about a nominee,<u+201d> julian zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at princeton university, writes for cnn. <u+201c>in trump<u+2019>s case this is especially important given how unprecedented and unpredictable his candidacy is.<u+201d> the assumed vp frontrunners, governor christie and former representative gingrich, could help trump work the legislative aspect of the presidency. gingrich has the experience. during his 20 years as a representative from georgia, gingrich served as house minority whip for six years and speaker for four. and christie, who was appointed as us attorney for the district of new jersey by president george w. bush in 2002 before becoming governor in 2010, has been crucial to the trump campaign, shopping around for endorsements and donations. <u+201c>[trump] is the first to admit that he doesn<u+2019>t know all the ways of washington,<u+201d> robert jeffress, a dallas pastor who has been close with trump during his campaign, told the washington post. <u+201c>so to actually push what he wants through, he<u+2019>s willing to reach out and get somebody to lend a hand.<u+201d> with more than 60 percent of voters feeling unfavorable about trump at the end of june, the right vp pick could help voters feel more positive about the republican ticket. however, gingrich and christie might not be the ones to do it. when gingrich withdrew from the presidential race in 2012, he had unfavorable ratings ranging between 56 and 67 percent. and even before his unsuccessful presidential bid, gingrich had a less-than-perfect track record, as john pitney jr. explains: trump might be thinking that gingrich could be his link to the washington establishment that he has so long criticized. if so, he should think again. during his speakership, gingrich alienated his colleagues through his impetuous leadership style. there was an abortive gop effort to depose him in 1997, and in the following year, colleagues finally forced him to leave after the clinton impeachment backfired politically. during his presidential race, few lawmakers endorsed him. and christie, who once seemed like a presidential contender himself, may not be that much better. christie<u+2019>s approval ratings in his home state have tanked since he started supporting trump. regardless of age, gender, or education, 60 to 68 percent of new jersey voters disapproved of christie in may, the lowest rating ever for the governor. and when asked what they think of a vp role on trump<u+2019>s ticket, 72 percent of new jersey voters said they disapprove. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s a drastic decline in popularity for a governor who once looked like a strong choice for president,<u+201d> maurice carroll, assistant director for quinnipiac university poll, said in a press release last month. <u+201c>christie-for-president was a flop, and, as far as the local folks are concerned, so is christie-for-vice president. forget local pride, new jersey voters say overwhelmingly; they don<u+2019>t want their gov on a trump ticket.<u+201d>

donald trump in the hunt for a vp: who's got the golden ticket?

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washington <u+2014> president obama has banned the sale of some kinds of military equipment to local law enforcement agencies, following widespread criticism of a paramilitary-like response to riots in a st. louis suburb last august. in doing so, obama put his stamp on the recommendations of a multi-agency federal working group that endorsed a ban on sales of some military equipment and providing more training, supervision and oversight of others. "we've seen how militarized gear can sometimes give people a feeling like they're an occupying force, as opposed to a force that's part of the community that's protecting them and serving them," obama said in a speech in camden, n.j. monday. he said military equipment can "alienate and intimidate local residents and may send the wrong message." in camden, obama highlighted a wide range of administration initiatives to fight crime, improve police-community relations and improve transparency in policing. they include a white house data initiative to encourage local police departments to release more information about arrests and uses of force by police; guidelines for police use of body-worn cameras; and federal grants to help implement community policing strategies. but the changes to federal policies on the use of military equipment for police received most of the attention, following the use of armored trucks, riot gear, tear gas and assault rifles by police last year in ferguson, mo., where days of unrest followed the police shooting of an unarmed 18-year-old man. banned will be tracked armored vehicles, bayonets, grenade launchers, camouflage uniforms, and large-caliber weapons and ammunition. "so we're going to prohibit some equipment made for the battlefield that is not appropriate for local police departments," obama said. "there's other equipment that may be needed in certain cases, but only with proper training." that equipment will be placed on a "controlled equipment list" that includes aircraft, wheeled tactical vehicles, mobile command-and-control units, battering rams and riot gear. to have access to that equipment, police departments must meet national policing standards, track their use and receive approval from the federal government before selling or transferring them. the ban on prohibited items takes effect immediately, white house deputy press secretary eric schultz said. the other recommendations will go into effect oct. 1, allowing the administration to write more specific rules. although those rules haven't been drafted, the white house highlighted one policy by the university of texas system police that prohibits the use of military vehicles in response to "exercises of the first amendment right to free speech" or as a part of "any public demonstration or display of police resources." to be eligible to purchase that equipment, agencies must adopt "robust and specific written policies and protocols" covering not just the use of the federal equipment, but their policing practices in general. agencies that violate those rules would be barred from future equipment purchases for at least 60 days and, in some cases, be referred to the justice department for a civil rights investigation. through an executive order in january, obama asked for federal departments to consult with police and civil rights groups to come up with recommendations on police use of military equipment. obama ratified those executive actions monday. but congress is also considering legislation. sen. claire mccaskill, d-mo., who is sponsoring one of those bills, called the president's action a step in the right direction and an acknowledgment "that this federal equipment and funding saves lives, but that these programs are in need of reform " in a 50-page report released monday, the working group noted that many police departments increasingly rely on the federal government for equipment as local budgets are strained. "yet, in some neighborhoods and communities, incidents of misuse, overuse, and inappropriate use of controlled equipment occur, and the resulting strain placed on the community and its relationship with law enforcement is severe," the report said.

obama bans some military equipment sales to police

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killing obama administration rules, dismantling obamacare and pushing through tax reform are on the early to-do list.

the 2016 ballot wars begin

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both donald trump and hillary clinton have struggled to win over a majority of voters, but so far the democratic nominee has shown greater potential to grow her support

putting presidential polls in perspective

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there is an path for democrats to regain the presidency <u+2014> and it does not run through ohio, michigan or wisconsin.

netanyahu rival concedes defeat

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charleston, south carolina (cnn) the casket is draped with an american flag, and walter scott is dressed in a dark suit. a white banner with a blue star refers to his favorite nfl team. it says: "tradition, the cowboys way." a few mourners trickled into the fielding home for funerals in charleston, south carolina. charleston mayor joseph riley comes by to pay his respects and show support for the scott family. they are not at friday night's visitation, the mayor says. the stress of the past week since scott was fatally shot in the back by a north charleston police officer michael slager is too much. they went by the funeral home earlier but they are exhausted, he says. they need their privacy now and at saturday's funeral and burial, he says. "this is a heartbreaking tragedy for everyone in our community," he says, adding they share the grief of their neighbors in north charleston and with the scott family. "it breaks everyone's hearts, wherever we live." meanwhile, police continue to investigate the incident in which scott ran from his car after a traffic stop then was shot while fleeing from slager. on friday afternoon, police met with a man who was in scott's car when slager pulled it over for a broken taillight. the passenger's name wasn't in a police report obtained by cnn. the passenger was detained briefly after the shooting, one officer wrote in the report. scott family attorney chris stewart said the man with scott was a co-worker and friend. but he did not identify the friend by name, nor did thom berry, a south carolina law enforcement division spokesman, who confirmed friday's meeting. his lawyer, andy savage, said friday he "has not received the cooperation from law enforcement that the media has." savage's office said in a written statement that it has yet to receive "any investigative documents, audio or video tapes, other than a copy of mr. slager's arrest warrant." the news release added that the lawyer has been advised that the police union that slager belongs to "is no longer involved in the case." the dash cam footage shows slager talking calmly to scott during the traffic stop. scott apparently says he has no insurance on the vehicle, and slager returns to his car to do paperwork. moments later, scott gets out of his car and bolts. a foot chase ensues. scott never reappears on the dash cam video, but a witness later takes video of the officer shooting scott several times in the back as he is running away. "nothing in this video demonstrates that the officer's life or the life of another was threatened," national urban league president marc morial said. "the question here is whether the use of force was excessive." on thursday, a new witness emerged in the case. gwen nichols told cnn's brian todd that she saw a scuffle between scott and slager at the entrance to a vacant lot. "it was like a tussle type of thing, like, you know, like, 'what do you want?' or 'what did i do?' type of thing," nichols said. "i didn't hear mr. slager saying: 'stop!' " scott was the subject of a bench warrant over $18,104.43 in unpaid child support at the time of the stop, according to court records. that may be why he ran, an attorney for the family said. criminal defense attorney paul callan said he believes slager's defense will play up the reported scuffle in arguing that this is not a murder case. "defense attorneys will say this was a heat of passion shooting -- (that) this was something that he did suddenly after some kind of an altercation, a physical altercation with a suspect," callan said. "and that would constitute manslaughter under law, as opposed to murder, and it makes a huge difference in sentencing." the investigation has been turned over to the south carolina law enforcement division, or sled. in a statement released thursday, sled said its investigators found troubling inconsistencies from the very start. "we believed early on that there was something not right about what happened in that encounter," sled chief mark keel said in a statement. "the cell phone video shot by a bystander confirmed our initial suspicions." cell phone videographer: 'mr. scott never tried to fight' feidin santana, who took the video of the shooting, told cnn's anderson cooper that he was walking to work when he saw slager on top of scott, who was on the ground. he said he could hear the sound of a taser in use. santana said he didn't see scott go after the taser, as slager initially claimed. he said he believes scott was trying to get away. "mr. scott never tried to fight," santana said. neither the struggle nor the use of a taser was captured on video, because santana started recording shortly after that. his video shows scott running away from slager before the officer aims his gun. slager fires eight shots toward scott, striking him five times. while the initial traffic stop may have seemed to be perfectly normal and professional, and the foot chase a reasonable choice, an analyst saw little justification for that last act. "i'm not familiar with south carolina police training, but i guarantee you that they do not teach to shoot a fleeing unarmed man in the back," said jim bueermann, president of the police foundation, a washington-based nonprofit. "if it's determined that multiple officers attempted to cover for the shooting officer, and it's shown that those reports were false, this will be a devastating blow for law enforcement everywhere," he said.

walter scott's family plans burial

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after the bombshell announcement friday that the fbi is reopening the clinton email investigation, hillary clinton looked awkward on the campaign trail as she tried to take suspicion off herself and put it on fbi director james comey. "some of you may have heard about a letter," clinton said to a chorus of boos from her supporters. "it's pretty strange to put something like that out with such little information right before an election. in fact, it's not just strange, it's unprecedented and it is deeply troubling." the wall street journal reported that comey's letter sent to lawmakers friday said that 650,000 emails were discovered on the laptop of disgraced former congressman anthony wiener, the estranged husband of clinton's top aide, huma abedin. weiner is under criminal investigation for allegedly sexting a teen. metadata on the emails suggests thousands of those messages could have been sent to or from then-secretary of state clinton's private server. comey said the fbi would take steps to review those emails to see if any were classified. a law enforcement official says the intelligence agency has obtained a search warrant. "we commend the fbi for reopening this case and having the courage to stand up for the principle because no one is above the law in the united states of america," republican vice presidential candidate mike pence told supporters in north carolina. but clinton campaign chair john podesta attacked comey, telling cnn, "to throw this in the middle of the campaign 11 days out just seemed to break with precedent and be inappropriate at this stage." both campaigns want the fbi to release what it knows, but since it's an ongoing investigation, that's probably not likely. according to multiple reports, many agents in the fbi were unhappy with comey's original handling of the clinton email investigation and his decision not to recommend charges against her. republican presidential candidate donald trump called it the biggest scandal since watergate: "we never thought we were going to say 'thank you' to anthony weiner," he said. the reopened fbi investigation is sure to impact a race that has already tightened, with the latest polls showing trump has made it a virtual dead heat.

clinton camp tries to deflect suspicion as fbi reopens email case

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washington (cnn) president barack obama on thursday effectively placed his diplomatic legacy largely in the hands of iranian revolutionary clerics who've waged a proxy war against the u.s. for three decades. with a framework deal to halt tehran's nuclear program, obama moved closer to the kind of staggering diplomatic breakthrough with the islamic republic that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. if the political agreement reached in switzerland turns into a genuine pact honored by both sides, obama will be entitled to a place in history as the leader who defused an intensely bitter estrangement with iran. but he also took personal ownership of a fraught negotiating process full of false starts and deep divisions, one that hinges on the sides' ability to hammer out a host of devilish details by a june 30 final deadline in the face of vocal opposition from domestic and international critics. if the deal falls apart, it will be hard to refute charges by critics that obama's insistence on negotiating directly with u.s. enemies -- a tactic at the heart of his political philosophy -- is deeply naive and futile. the risks of obama's choice, and the challenge of resolving tough issues to get to a final agreement by july, were clear within minutes of news breaking that a deal was reached in lausanne. obama quickly appeared in the white house rose garden, not for the victory lap that presidents often take in this picturesque spot, but to launch an impassioned defense of the contentious deal. his sales pitch was concise: there is no other better way to prevent iran from moving covertly to build a nuclear weapon. "when you hear the inevitable critics of the deal sound off, ask them a simple question: do you really think that this verifiable deal, if fully implemented, backed by the world's major powers, is a worse option than the risk of another war in the middle east?" obama said. "is it worse than doing what we've done for almost two decades with iran moving forward with its nuclear program and without robust inspections?" the question now is whether obama's skills of persuasion -- hardly his strong suit -- will convince critics that his negotiators got a good deal. first signs were not encouraging for the white house. republican house speaker john boehner warned that congress would continue to press for a vote on the deal, which might derail its long-term prospects given the extent of republican opposition. another pending bill that has the potential to scuttle the negotiations would impose additional sanctions on tehran. republican sen. lindsey graham of south carolina attacked the president's posture on thursday as he, too, emphasized that congress must review a final deal. "we simply cannot take president obama's word that it is this or war," he said. the march 31 deadline -- twice pushed back -- was originally imposed on the process in order to help obama's political prospects of selling the deal to congress, which has final say on lifting u.s. sanctions on iran. several democrats had indicated that they planned to join with republicans on the controversial bills, but they pledged to hold up consideration of the measures until late march so obama could show the talks were making progress and should be bolstered rather than tanked by legislators. while the republicans' response thursday demonstrated that the framework deal had not placated them, skeptical democrats were more noncommittal on how they would respond. "we now need to take a close look at the details to determine if the compromises made are worth the dismantling of years of pressure built on iran," said rep. eliot engel of new york, the top democrat on the house foreign affairs committee. new york rep. steve israel more clearly showed that obama could well face an intraparty challenge. "the details deserve and must get a vote by the u.s. congress," he said in a statement. "until the full details are provided to congress on june 30th, you can keep me in the 'highly skeptical' column." obama also faces intense displeasure from many of america's closest allies in the middle east, countries such as israel and saudi arabia that are directly in the iranian line of fire. they are concerned that the united states may be giving up leverage on iran by lifting sanctions while leaving tehran's nuclear infrastructure intact. the president nodded to this challenge in the rose garden when he said that he would invite the leaders of the gulf cooperation council to camp david this spring to discuss raging middle east turmoil, much of it aided by tehran. he also spoke to saudi arabia's king salman and israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu, with whom he has feuded over iran. netanyahu has powerful allies on capitol hill, and will be sure to lobby for the bills seeking to constrain the administration in its deal-making with iran as the final deadline nears. already thursday, israel called the celebrations in switzerland "disconnected from reality" and said iran would use a "poor framework" for a "bad and dangerous" deal to move towards nuclear war. and the obama administration's iranian counterparts have their own treacherous path to getting approval of their part of the deal -- making obama's bold endorsement of the provisional agreement particularly perilous. iran's top negotiator, foreign minister mohammad javed zarif, must convince supreme leader ayatollah ali khamenei and hardliners in iran's revolutionary guard corps to accept the deal and permit its implementation. "javad zarif will have to sell this deal like we will. his task is not simple, or a given," a senior administration official said. like obama, zarif wasted no time, boasting at a news conference in switzerland that tehran had retained its right to enrich uranium (to 3.67 percent, according to a white house fact sheet distributed at the deal's announcement) and would not lose its nuclear infrastructure. and iranian swagger like that -- a political necessity for zarif -- emphasizes the very aspects of the deal that make its american critics most concerned. another key point of contention is how comprehensive the inspections will be. while the u.n.'s international atomic energy agency will have unprecedented access to iran's declared nuclear facilities under the deal, many in the west wanted inspectors to have unfettered access to any site of their choosing since tehran has hidden nuclear operations in the past. the white house fact sheet said that the iaea inspectors "will have regular access" to all of iran's facilities but did not specify how that would be achieved. "the nuclear flaw in this agreement is the fact that we will not be able to go anywhere, go anytime," said mark dubowitz of the foundation for the defense of democracies. "the iaea is going to have to work with the iranians. what the iranian government has shown over decades is the ability to defeat the iaea with stonewalling, delay and deviousness." but the senior official said that the u.s. negotiating team was confident that the talks on a final deal would produce an agreement on a "mechanism" that would resolve disputes over access to iranian sites. skeptics also questioned obama's assurance that lifted sanctions could "snap back" in place if iran transgressed once the agreement went into force. debates are already raging about the sequence in which sanctions will be lifted on iran and on why the united states would bolster iran's coffers by lifting sanctions at a time when it is blaming tehran for destabilizing the middle east. the white house, however, has other concessions to point to. the deal will cut iran's stocks of centrifuges, require the conversion of an underground enrichment facility at fordow to a research center and limit the output of another reactor at arak, among other requirements. in return the united states and other world powers will lift sanctions that have throttled iran's economy, offering it the tantalizing prospect of a return to full membership within the international community. karim sadjadpour, an iran expert at the carnegie endowment for international peace, said the deal was close to "win, win" for both iran and the united states. he added, however, "we don't want to get too ahead of ourselves." he continued, "what was announced today is the engagement. the wedding is scheduled to take place in july, but there is going to be a vigorous debate about the prenuptial agreement, and there is no guarantee this wedding will take place on time." though the four-page white house fact sheet left many technical questions unanswered, the deal surprised some experts and political figures with its detail and specificity. that's something that jim walsh, from the security studies program at massachusetts institute of technology, suggested could help sway worried democrats. "i think they have put themselves in pretty good shape to go to that community and defend the deal. they ended up with a lot more than most of us were expecting," walsh said. still, even obama admitted that the success of the initiative was far from certain. if the framework deal snags on the unresolved technical details before the final deadline on june 30, or if tehran tries to cheat in years to come, obama's hopes of a foreign policy victory for the ages will founder as well. "the president's strategy has been absolutely incoherent in the middle east in general. he is pinning his legacy on this agreement," republican rep. martha mcsally of arizona told cnn's wolf blitzer. but so far, that legacy has received a boost from the week's events, even though republicans tried to paint the twice-delayed announcement of the deal as a sign that obama wouldn't be able to deliver. that doesn't mean, though, that his fortunes couldn't change -- and change quickly. "you've got quite a significant accomplishment," aaron david miller, a former u.s. middle east peace negotiator, told cnn. "is it perfect? no." he concluded, "he bet a lot on this. he's wrapped the last remaining 20 months of his presidency on what could be the most significant accomplishment on foreign policy -- if in fact all of this holds."

obama ties his fate to iran nuclear deal

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every gop presidential candidate, most especially in a crowded field with lots of solid contenders, needs to answer a single question: why me and not one of the 20 or so other hopefuls who are running? we will look at a number of candidates, each with a different argument for his or her candidacy. we will start today with the candidate who got the most buzz in iowa. in a recent interview wisconsin gov. scott walker made his own case, which i think, can be boiled down to 10 key points: 1. republicans <u+201c>can<u+2019>t win with just republican votes,<u+201d> he says. forget the ones pitching far to the right or the ones with no sell to disaffected (walker calls them <u+201c>discerning<u+201d>) democrats. find someone who can put together an electoral majority as walker did. three times. 2. the gop needs a standard-bearer, he says, with both the <u+201c>courage and the capacity<u+201d> to win and get a conservative agenda enacted. it is an uphill climb for senators to make the case (although possible). he has been among state leaders in ohio, iowa, michigan, new jersey and elsewhere who won with a diverse electorate and then successfully passed a conservative agenda. 3. he has done at the state level the things republicans want to do nationally <u+2014> cut taxes, implement school choice, achieve health-care reform, promote business and job growth, and defend taxpayers against public employee unions. in other words, his record is relevant to this presidential election. 4. he can articulate well a vision that does not appeal only to entrepreneurs. as he likes to say, every american wants the chance <u+201c>to live his or her piece of the american dream.<u+201d> that dream does not necessarily include starting one<u+2019>s own business, but can be owning a home, sending a kid to college, raising a family in a safe city, etc. 5. he understands republicans want to <u+201c>boldly chart out<u+201d> a vision for the country. conservatives call this <u+201c>painting in bold colors,<u+201d> and he surely did that in iowa. 6. he is a feisty pol who took on and beat the left three times in four years. he says with the right amount of cockiness, <u+201c>i wouldn<u+2019>t be betting against me.<u+201d> 7. <u+00a0>on foreign policy, he is as fluent at this point in the campaign on national security as any first-time nominee in recent memory (with the exception of sen. john mccain in 2008) and has only begun to talk about the subject. (did bill clinton know any more in 1992?) but a good deal of the issue here is about temperament. walker is neither unpredictably explosive nor excessively excitable. that can<u+2019>t be said about a number of candidates. the ability to project steely resolve certainly matters here, as does his belief in the united states<u+2019> unique role in the world. 8. there is no obvious flaw. the <u+201c>pawlenty did too<u+201d> argument does not wash; former minnesota governor tim pawlenty did not have the record nor the political chops walker does. the issue here is: who else could appeal to the full gamut of republicans? 9. he is a proven winner. call him the un-romney, who lost three times (once for senate and twice for president). 10. he can embrace his ordinariness, his modest background and his lack of a college degree. he received no advantage from family, inherited wealth, or extraordinary luck. he succeeded by tenacity and desire <u+2014> the precise qualities he suggests should allow any american to rise. as we go through the campaign, we will look at a number of candidates and ask what unique advantages he or she has. as for walker, it is hard to argue he lacks the potential to distinguish himself from the rest of the field. the question will be whether he successfully does so.

what advantages does scott walker offer?

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in a 1997 howard stern interview, the future presidential candidate likened sleeping with multiple women to service in the war he repeatedly avoided. draft-dodger donald trump once said that the danger he faced from getting sexually transmitted diseases was his own <u+201c>personal vietnam.<u+201d> in a 1997 interview with shock jock howard stern, trump talked about how he had been <u+201c>lucky<u+201d> not to have contracted diseases when he was sleeping around. <u+201c>i<u+2019>ve been so lucky in terms of that whole world. it is a dangerous world out there. it<u+2019>s scary, like vietnam. sort of like the vietnam-era,<u+201d> trump said in a video that resurfaced tuesday on buzzfeed, <u+201c>it is my personal vietnam. i feel like a great and very brave soldier.<u+201d> it wasn<u+2019>t the only time the republican frontrunner for president would liken his personal life to wartime service: trump has claimed that his military-themed boarding school education was essentially equivalent to having being trained in the military. when trump had his chance to join the military and fight in vietnam, he did not take it. instead, the rich kid got multiple student deferments from the draft and a medical deferment. meanwhile, men like john mccain were being tortured as prisoners of war, but trump has said that is dishonorable. <u+2019> <u+201c>he<u+2019>s not a war hero,<u+201d> trump said of mccain last year. <u+201c>he<u+2019>s a war hero because he was captured. i like people that weren<u+2019>t captured, ok?<u+201d> trump has wrapped his campaign in veterans issues, routinely lamenting that they<u+2019>ve been treated <u+201c>terribly.<u+201d> the candidate even held a fundraiser for veterans groups in lieu of attending a debate just before the iowa caucuses. since running for office, trump has made a show of fundraising for veterans<u+2014>offering veterans groups six-figures to be props at campaign rallies. but when vets groups have stood up to him, refusing to be dragged into the campaign, scores of trump fans have sent them vile and harassing<u+00a0>messages. in the 1980s, trump tried to have disabled veteran street vendors thrown off fifth avenue, accusing the vietnam-era soldiers <u+00a0>of ruining how the street in front of trump tower looked. before his presidential campaign, trump<u+2019>s charitable foundation gave more to the clintons than to veterans organizations. trump has suggested he would be tremendous for veterans if elected president, but his efforts so far have been questionable. in july 2015, trump announced that he would be setting up a hotline for veterans to share their stories about the need to reform the va. today, a call to the hotline leads merely to a voicemail box, which instructs the caller to send them an email.

draft-dodger trump said sleeping around was my <u+2018>personal vietnam<u+2019>

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washington -- rep. paul ryan (r-wis.) is confident there will be no government shutdown this fall because republicans are in charge on capitol hill, he said friday. "i<u+2019>m not worried about that because we control both sides of the rotunda, the house and the senate," ryan, the chairman of the house ways and means committee, said in a briefing with reporters. ryan is optimistic despite the fact that the house has only passed about half of the 12 appropriations measures that are required to keep the government running through september, the senate hasn't passed any yet, and congress is on vacation for most of august. democrats in the upper chamber are blocking the funding measures there because they are angry that the gop decided to boost military spending above levels set by the 2011 budget control act and its sequestration rules, while leaving in place steep cuts to domestic programs that are democratic priorities. president barack obama has threatened to veto appropriations bills that don't deal with both military and domestic programs, and his allies in the senate are demanding that republicans open up a process now to resolve the impasse. ryan managed to cut a deal with sen. patty murray (d-wash) two years ago, when both were chairs of their respective budget committees, that eased sequestration cuts evenly. neither senate majority leader mitch mcconnell (r-ky.) nor house speaker john boehner (r-ohio) have suggested any willingness to do something similar this time around, and senate democrats are vowing to stand firm until republicans start negotiating. ryan said that he thought a new version of a ryan-murray deal could be struck under the leadership of the current budget chairmen, sen. mike enzi (r-wyo.) and rep. tom price (r-ga.). but he stuck by his party's line that congress should keep passing its regular funding bills before starting to negotiate, pointing to the department of defense bill that is currently being blocked. "if they filibuster dod approps over there in the senate, i think it's a shame if they do that, but we<u+2019>ll cross that bridge when we get to it," he said. asked if he could support raising the spending caps set in 2011's deal -- as he and murray did in 2013 -- he didn't say no, but insisted such a move would have to be paid for in some way. "the precedent that patty and i set was mandatory savings in excess of discretionary add-backs to result in deficit reduction -- net deficit reduction," he said. "these things have to be paid for," ryan added, "what's the point in having spending caps if they don't enforce fiscal discipline?" asked why republican control made him optimistic about passing appropriations bills, especially considering the poor functioning of the senate, ryan merely replied: "it's functioning a whole lot better than it did a year ago," when democrats were in charge. when congress did shut down the government for two weeks in 2013, republicans only controlled the house, but they got the blame because they had insisted on trying to use government funding to gut the affordable care act.

paul ryan says government won't shut down because republicans are in control

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hillary clinton appears to have scared away much of the competition should she seek the democratic nomination for president in 2016. but her early and practically all-encompassing effort also presents the potential liability that she will sail through the primary season largely untested for the bare-knuckled general election. and it could deny democrats the chance to define themselves to americans, strategists say. <u+201c>it's not good for a party because the democratic party needs a real debate about what it's for, who it's for, what it's about and where we'll take the country,<u+201d> says dennis kucinich, a former democratic congressman, presidential candidate and a fox news contributor. the 67-year-old clinton plans to make an official announcement in early 2015, leaving some doubt about whether she will indeed run. but her frontrunner status is unquestionable. she has roughly 62 percent of the likely vote and leads all potential democratic challengers by a numbing 49.5 percentage points. and those numbers combined with an ambitious public-speaking schedule and the fundraising and cheerleading group ready for hillary are making it difficult for potential primary challengers to raise money. in addition, clinton<u+2019>s most formidable, likely primary challenger now, massachusetts sen. elizabeth warren, insists she<u+2019>s not running, leaving the democratic field so wide open that 73-year-old bernie sanders, an independent and junior senator from vermont, is now fourth behind clinton, warren and vice president biden, according an averaging of polls by realclearpolitics.com <u+201c>i think you miss the chance to vet ideals,<u+201d> says richard fowler, a democrat and host of the progressive-leaning <u+201c>richard fowler talk show.<u+201d> <u+201c>i think that's what elections are about.<u+00a0>elections are about ideals and how ideals <u+2026> would then turn into policy that will then turn into how we govern.<u+201d> clinton, a former first lady, secretary of state and new york senator, hasn<u+2019>t been in a campaign-style debate since 2008, when she lost the democratic presidential primary to president obama, then a freshman illinois senator. still, a relatively easy 2016 primary, if clinton indeed runs, would likely save her from the pummeling she took last time. <u+201c>you<u+2019>re likeable enough, hillary,<u+201d> obama said on stage to clinton, who was the early democratic frontrunner in that race, too. among the tough questions she will likely face, and needs to answer well, include what she knew about security at the u.s. outpost in benghazi, libya, in which four americans were killed in a 2012 terror attack. clinton, who is worthy millions of dollars, also will likely have to make a strong case that she will champion the country<u+2019>s poor and working class, after saying on her 2014 book tour: <u+201c>we came out of the white house not only dead broke, but in debt.<u+201d> <u+201c>hillary clinton, i think, has proven that when you're off the trail for a while, you come back rusty,<u+201d> said larry sabato, director of the university of virginia<u+2019>s center for politics. <u+201c>she certainly came back rusty on that book tour.<u+201d>

clinton clearing primary field for potential 2016 run could leave her vulnerable

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bill clinton spent 13 minutes yesterday forcefully responding to black lives matter activists who were heckling him. speaking in an overwhelmingly african american neighborhood of philadelphia, the city that will host this summer<u+2019>s democratic national convention, the former president offered a spirited defense of his record on civil rights, his signature crime bill and his wife. one of the protesters held a sign that declared, "black youth are not super predators.<u+201d> that<u+2019>s a reference to when hillary clinton spoke in 1996 of <u+201c>the kinds of kids that are called <u+2018>super-predators<u+2019><u+201d> and said <u+201c>we have to bring them to heel.<u+201d> clinton pointed to the signs. <u+201c>this is what<u+2019>s the matter,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>i don't know how you would characterize the gang leaders who got 13-year-olds hopped up on crack and sent them out onto the street to murder other african american children. maybe you thought they were good citizens. she didn't! <u+2026> you are defending the people who kill the lives you say matter! tell the truth! you are defending the people who caused young people to go out and take guns.<u+201d> the 69-year-old<u+00a0>went on an extended riff about why he and his wife are the ones who have really fought to make black lives matter: "because of that [crime]<u+00a0>bill we had a 25-year low in crime, a 30-year low in the murder rate, and because of that and the background-check law, a 46-year low in deaths of lives by gun violence,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>and who do you think those lives were that mattered? whose lives were saved that mattered?" bill noted that hillary, unlike bernie sanders, did not vote for the crime bill. "she was spending her time trying to get health care for poor kids,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>who were they? and their lives matter!<u+201d> he also highlighted the democratic front-runner's<u+00a0>work for the children's defense fund as a young attorney in alabama and her work to stop the spread of hiv in africa as secretary of state. "i'll tell you another story about a place where black lives matter: africa," he said. -- in a year when the drama has mostly been on the republican side, it made for great political theater. and it gave bill clinton another unforgettable <u+201c>sister souljah moment.<u+201d> in may 1992, the hip-hop artist suggested that killing white cops might not be so bad in the wake of the los angeles riots. speaking at a convention organized by jesse jackson<u+2019>s rainbow coalition, the then-governor of arkansas ripped into her. "if you took the words <u+2018>white<u+2019> and <u+2018>black<u+2019> and reversed them, you might think david duke was giving that speech,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>we have an obligation, all of us, to call attention to prejudice whenever we see it.<u+201d> (c-span<u+2019>s archive has the video.) calling her out became legendary and helped clinton pivot from the democratic nominating contest he was wrapping up, when he needed base voters, to the general election, when he needed independents.<u+00a0>twenty-four years later, we are at a very similar phase in the campaign cycle. -- yesterday<u+2019>s showdown in philadelphia quickly became a rorschach test. republicans and liberal activists inclined to dislike wjc called it evidence of him being out of touch and over the hill, while clinton loyalists said it was the big dog at his best. the majority of the crowd of 400 cheered clinton as he made the protesters his foils. -- most<u+00a0>mainstream media outlets are<u+00a0>covering<u+00a0>the comments as another off-message embarrassment for his wife<u+2019>s campaign,<u+00a0>but<u+00a0>let<u+2019>s dispense<u+00a0>once and for all with the<u+00a0>fiction that bill clinton does not know what he<u+2019>s doing. he knows exactly what he<u+2019>s doing. -- a year ago, most d.c. pundits would have bet that the 2016 general election would pit hillary versus jeb, and that democrats could win by making the campaign about whether voters wanted to give bill or w. a third term. the bushes are now long gone. indeed, both donald trump and ted cruz criticize the former president to varying degrees. because the democratic primaries turned out to be more competitive than anticipated, it<u+2019>s been hard for the clintons to lean on nostalgia for the 1990s. instead the former president and first lady have been pressed constantly from the left on everything from nafta to doma. -- bill<u+2019>s comments about the black lives matter movement suggest that a major pivot in the campaign<u+2019>s messaging is on the way. smarting from the 2008 defections of african americans to barack obama and recognizing that securing the democratic nomination this time would depend on running up the score among minority voters, the clintons set out in the spring of 2015 to inoculate themselves from criticism over the crime bill.<u+00a0><u+201c>we overshot the mark,<u+201d> bill wrote in the foreword to a book on mass incarceration that came out exactly one year ago. the same month, hillary gave a speech at columbia university -- in the wake of the baltimore riots <u+2013> to promise that criminal justice reform to end sentencing disparities -- which were made worse by her husband<u+2019>s bill <u+2013> would be a top priority as president. last july, the former president told the naacp convention that he deeply regretted sending minor criminals to prison <u+201c>for way too long.<u+201d> "i signed a bill that made the problem worse, and i want to admit it," he said. yesterday, the former president instead blamed congressional republicans for the parts of the law that have increased mass incarceration. he said then-sen. joe biden told him it could not pass if the tough-on-crime provisions were not added in. after hillary was confronted this february by a protester about the <u+201c>super predator<u+201d> comment, she expressed regret. <u+201c>looking back, i shouldn<u+2019>t have used those words, and i wouldn<u+2019>t use them today,<u+201d> she said in a statement. -- now, as the general election looms, polls show that his wife is badly underperforming with white voters in key battleground states<u+00a0>compared to 2008. but bill<u+2019>s strategy is not without risk. hillary needs high african american turnout to beat bernie in new york on april 19 and in the pennsylvania and maryland primaries on april 26. she also needs to keep the obama coalition activated through november. while you were sleeping: -- bernie sanders is going to speak at the vatican next week, john wagner scoops.<u+00a0>he'll leave for<u+00a0>rome immediately after his debate with clinton on<u+00a0>april 14 for<u+00a0>a<u+00a0>conference on social, economic and environmental issues. -- sanders turned his stump speech into comedy on <u+201c>the late show with seth meyers<u+201d>: the vermont senator offered a comedic twist on his disdain for the billionaire class, roasting the <u+201c>one percenters<u+201d> alongside meyers on a segment called <u+201c>ya bernt.<u+201d> <u+201c>one percent -- what do you need all that money for?<u+201d> sanders asked. <u+201c>if i didn<u+2019>t know any better, i<u+2019>d think you were trying to compensate for something.<u+201d> as for the big banks, sanders had this to say: <u+201c>my advice is the same advice i give to a couple contemplating an open relationship. it<u+2019>s time to break up.<u+201d> (john wagner) -- colorado gov. john hickenlooper<u+00a0>--<u+00a0>who could be a contender in the veepstakes -- hosted hillary for a fundraiser at his home in denver last night. isaac slade, lead vocalist for the fray, performed for the 530 attendees.<u+00a0>a white noise machine<u+00a0>was set up<u+00a0>to prevent reporters standing across the street from hearing<u+00a0>hillary's comments in the governor's<u+00a0>back yard, according to the local cbs affiliate. -- seven in<u+00a0>10 americans now view trump unfavorably, according to an<u+00a0>ap-gfk poll. and the negativity transcends typical <u+201c>voter blocs<u+201d> of age, race<u+00a0>and ideology: <u+201c>it's an opinion shared by majorities of men and women; young and old; conservatives, moderates and liberals; and whites, hispanics and blacks <u+2026> a devastatingly broad indictment of [trump]."<u+00a0>the numbers also suggest trump could be losing his core base:<u+00a0>"in the south <u+2013> a region where trump has decisively won many primary contests <u+2013> close to 70 percent of voters view him unfavorably. and among white voters without a college education, 55 percent have a negative opinion." -- not ready to make nice: ted cruz refuses<u+00a0>to apologize to senate majority leader mitch mcconnell for publicly calling him <u+201c>a liar<u+201d> last year. <u+201c>that ain't gonna happen," the texas senator said on cnn last night. <u+201c>and if the washington lobbyists want to see that happen, they can hold their breath a long, long time." so much for trying to win over his senate colleagues... -- american idol is finally<u+00a0>over. "less than two months after the curtain went down on #oscarssowhite <u+2014><u+00a0>at least until 2017 <u+2014><u+00a0>it seems that 'american idol'<u+00a0>may be too white as well. or, more specifically, too deferential to 'generic'<u+00a0>white guys, often wielding guitars.<u+00a0>this was the consensus on social media after trent harmon, a self-described white 'dude from mississippi,'<u+00a0>defeated<u+00a0>la<u+2019>porsha renae, a black single mother from the same state." (justin wm. moyer) trump shakes up campaign after getting caught flat-footed in delegate hunt: -- trump<u+00a0>announced yesterday<u+00a0>that he is reorganizing his campaign, giving an expanded role to veteran strategist paul j. manafort.<u+00a0>from<u+00a0>karen<u+00a0>tumulty and dan balz:<u+00a0>"manafort, who joined the trump operation on march 29 as its convention manager, will now have broader responsibilities, and will 'oversee, manage and be responsible for all activities that pertain to mr. trump's delegate process and the cleveland convention,' the campaign said in its announcement.<u+00a0>manafort, working from a new d.c. campaign office, will also be in charge of outreach efforts to members of congress, the republican national committee and think tanks.<u+00a0>while the campaign insisted there had been no reduction in the role of embattled campaign manager corey lewandowski, it was nonetheless seen that way in republican circles. manafort's new portfolio is the operation that could be most crucial to trump's success in the coming months.<u+00a0>said one gop strategist who has worked with manafort, and who declined to be identified: 'i can assure you that lewandowski should be looking for new employment at this point. he's half wiped out already.'" <u+201c>trump is not a dumb man,<u+201d> chris cillizza writes. <u+201c>he didn<u+2019>t get to where he is <u+2026> by not grasping when things are slipping away from him <u+2026> [t]he writing appears to be on the wall. manafort will run things going forward.<u+201d> -- smart frame --> <u+201c>the strategist vs. the showman: cruz and trump run very different campaigns,<u+201d> by katie zezima: <u+201c>cruz is the disciplined strategist who stays relentlessly on message and runs a by-the-book organization filled with aides and state chairs <u+2026> trump, by contrast, runs what amounts to a diy presidential campaign. <u+2026> while the approach has left trump with little established infrastructure as the race turns into a brawl for delegates, it has also allowed him to be nimble <u+2026> cruz<u+2019>s advance work will be on display this weekend in colorado, one of five states that leave it up to party members to elect the state<u+2019>s 37 delegates to the national convention. organizers said much of the work has been done with little input from cruz [headquarters in houston]. <u+2018>there are 50 different states with 50 different speeds,<u+2019> said ken buck, the senator<u+2019>s colorado state chairman.<u+201d> -- trump and cruz face their first test in the virginia delegate fight<u+00a0>tomorrow: <u+201c>a few hundred republicans are set to gather in wytheville, a town of 8,000 in the state's southwest corner, to elect three delegates to the republican convention,<u+201d> the ap reports. <u+201c>at first glance, the 9th congressional district's local convention appears to be fertile ground for trump <u+2026> but the cruz campaign is counting on a superior advantage with party insiders, both in virginia and around the country, to get its preferred delegates elected. political watchers say these types of party insiders who take the time to register for and attend regional party meetings are more likely to back cruz. <u+2018>the issue is who is going to these convention,<u+2019> said terry kilgore, a republican state house delegate ... <u+2018>the cruz people understand the game a little bit better.<u+2019><u+201d> -- trump leads cruz by 7 points in california, according to the field poll. the front-runner has 39 percent, with cruz at 32 percent and kasich at 18 percent. trump leads in the bay area and in the southern california region outside of los angeles. cruz is preferred over trump in l.a. proper<u+00a0>and among voters in the<u+00a0>central valley and sierra mountains,<u+00a0>whereas supporters for kasich are somewhat evenly dispersed across the state.<u+00a0>the primary in june will award delegates by congressional districts. former supporters of arnold schwarzenegger prefer trump: voters who backed his gubernatorial bid in the recall prefer trump over cruz by a three to one margin. -- <u+201c>trump has more than math to worry about in cleveland,<u+201d> by politico<u+2019>s kyle cheney: <u+201c>every aspect of the republican national convention is a potential tripwire that motivated anti-trump forces could deploy to waylay the mogul.<u+201d> five tactics cruz could use to try denying trump the nomination. -- ben carson proved again to be a terrible trump surrogate. when asked on cnn<u+00a0>if lewandowski should be running the show after being charged with battery, he responded<u+00a0>that <u+201c>a<u+00a0>lot of people have been charged with various things <u+2026> you<u+2019>ve probably been charged with things.<u+201d> (the interviewer replied that he has not.) -- jeff sessions, trump's only supporter in the senate, said he does not think trump will pick him as vp. <u+00a0><u+201c>i think that would not happen," he said. <u+201c>don<u+2019>t bet any money on me.<u+201d> (the hill) -- rudy giuliani<u+00a0>told the new york post<u+00a0>that he will vote for<u+00a0>trump, hitting cruz for his comments on "new york values."<u+00a0>he quipped,<u+00a0><u+201c>i can make fun of new york. but you can<u+2019>t!" more on the democratic race: --<u+00a0>there is widespread and growing concern among democrats that the clinton-sanders rivalry is doing lasting damage to the party and the eventual nominee.<u+00a0>"with both candidates launching 10-day sprints ahead of new york<u+2019>s april 19 primary, the strain and resentment of a hard-fought and unexpectedly long contest boiled over repeatedly in interviews, speeches and other public appearances,"<u+00a0>john wagner, abby phillip and anne<u+00a0>gearan<u+00a0>report. "the senator from vermont refused to retract his assertion that clinton is not qualified to be president. clinton dismissed that claim as 'silly' and countered that sanders has repeatedly made promises he can<u+2019>t keep. ...<u+00a0>sanders continued to blame clinton for going on the attack and said he has simply been defending himself. and while he expressed regret for the tenor of the campaign over the previous 24 hours and said the acrimony will make it harder for democrats to unite in the fall, he also said he does not regret his own statements.<u+00a0>clinton had raised questions in a television interview about whether sanders was prepared to be president, but she repeatedly stopped short of saying he was unqualified." "president obama, who has sought to stay out his party<u+2019>s nominating contest, weighed in thursday though a spokesman. traveling with obama on air force one, white house spokesman eric schultz said obama believes that clinton 'comes to the race with more experience than any non-vice president' in recent campaign history. schultz emphasized that obama feels 'fortunate' that clinton, whom he defeated in a sometimes nasty battle for the 2008 nomination, served as his secretary of state." --<u+00a0>in an interview with the post's john wagner, sanders stood by his view that clinton is not qualified <u+2014> but he also pledged to support her if she is the nominee. three highlights: -- congressional democrats expressed hope that<u+00a0>the dust-up over whether hillary is "qualified"<u+00a0>serves as a warning<u+00a0>for both candidates to tone things down and keep the party more cohesive than the republicans.<u+00a0><u+201c>it<u+2019>s really important that everybody take a pause, that everybody calm down,<u+201d> said north dakota sen. heidi heitkamp. <u+201c>at this point in campaigns, people get tired, say things they don<u+2019>t mean to, emotions get raw. i think a lot of this will dissipate with a couple good nights<u+2019> sleep.<u+201d> -- why is bernie<u+00a0>throwing the kitchen sink right<u+00a0>now? because he must fundamentally disrupt<u+00a0>the race to have any chance of ultimately<u+00a0>prevailing. "sanders still trails clinton by more than 200 pledged delegates.<u+00a0>the math is close to determinative<u+00a0>-- and not in his favor. barring a major cataclysm in the race, clinton will be the nominee," writes chris cillizza.<u+00a0>this chart compares clinton's lead over sanders to obama's lead over her at this point in 2008: -- <u+201c>panama financial scandal blows up into democratic skirmishing over trade,<u+201d> by david nakamura: -- president obama took pains to describe merrick garland as a unifying figure during a speech at the university of chicago law school. juliet eilperin and mike debonis: "in a carefully-orchestrated question and answer session with students and faculty <u+2013> including several of garland<u+2019>s family members, the president said failure to confirm his court nominee would make the courts <u+201c>just an extension of our <u+2026> elections and our politics. and that erodes the institutional integrity of the judicial branch.<u+201d> one questioner pressed obama about the lack of diversity on the bench and asked why he picked a white man. obama said <u+201c>that<u+2019>s just not how i<u+2019>ve approached it":<u+00a0><u+201c>at no point did i say: <u+2018>oh, you know what? i need a black lesbian from skokie in that slot. can you find me one?<u+2019><u+201d><u+00a0>(the skokie review notes that this<u+00a0>comment sent the suburb north of chicago trending online...) -- minority whip<u+00a0>richard durbin said democrats are "actively considering" legislative<u+00a0>maneuvers<u+00a0>to push<u+00a0>a vote on garland. "democrats have thus far refrained from holding up legislation or other senate business to gain leverage on the court fight.<u+00a0>an ultimate step would be to force a floor vote on garland without committee action <u+2014> a move that would almost certainly fail but would attract attention and put those vulnerable republican incumbents on the spot. a democratic leadership aide said that is being considered as a last resort, one that would not be deployed for months." -- lindsey graham said he will meet with garland, reversing course on his earlier pledge not to.<u+00a0>spokesman kevin bishop said it was a <u+201c>courtesy<u+201d> meeting, and the south carolina senator<u+00a0><u+201c>remains opposed to moving forward with the nomination.<u+201d> -- <u+201c>why a va. senator told a teacher: <u+2018>you do not know better than the parents,<u+2019><u+201d> by jenna portnoy: <u+201c>sen. richard h. black doesn<u+2019>t think of himself as squeamish. but the northern virginia republican said he was so stunned by the <u+2018>moral sewage<u+2019> in <u+2026> toni morrison<u+2019>s <u+2018>beloved<u+2019> that he did something he professes to never have done [in office]. he abandoned all diplomacy and told a constituent exactly what he thought. black called the book <u+2018>profoundly filthy<u+2019> and <u+2018>smut.<u+2019><u+201d> the screed is part of an extraordinary email exchange between black and loudoun county teacher jessica berg, who <u+201c>wrote to black to protest his vote for a bill that would have required teachers to give parents advance notice if they planned to assign material with sexually explicit content in class [allowing parents to <u+2018>opt out<u+2019> their children from reading the offending books]. <u+2018>it<u+2019>s ridiculous that you are trying to control education when you have no idea what it entails,<u+2019> she wrote. <u+2018>you do not want free thinkers.<u+2019> <u+2018>i want teachers who won<u+2019>t teach such vile things,<u+2019> he responded. <u+2018>you do not know better than the parents.<u+2019><u+201d> (read the full back and forth here.) mark kirk (r-ill.), desperately trying to hold his seat, is one of only a handful of republicans who would show off a handwritten note from obama: sen.<u+00a0>jeff flake (r-ariz.) joked about the senate voting down a legroom amendment in the faa reauthorization.<u+00a0>(like<u+00a0>you,<u+00a0>he gets his news from powerpost): sen.<u+00a0>richard burr (r-n.c.) did not look too happy wearing villanova gear (read about his ncaa wager with pat toomey here): check out the scrum surrounding clinton as she entered the nyc subway (here's the video, too): kasich ate his way through the bronx (check out this video mashup from cnn): sanders ran into this character at temple university: clinton allies, including the head of the lead super pac supporting her,<u+00a0>accused sanders of sexism: the clinton campaign rapid response team noted that sanders thought she was qualified enough to become secretary of state: some in upstate new york were not so happy to have cruz: two pictures of obama back when he was a law professor: d.c. police chief cathy lanier threw the first pitch at the nats home opener: internet trolls from the fever swamps of the far right and the far left<u+00a0>can be so disgusting and nasty, but this may take the cake: -- bloomberg, <u+201c>mccain-linked nonprofit received $1 million from saudi arabia,<u+201d> by bill allison: <u+201c>a nonprofit with ties to senator john mccain received a $1 million donation from the government of saudi arabia in 2014, according to documents filed with the [irs]. [mccain] has strictly honorary roles with the mccain institute for international leadership, a program at arizona state university, and its fundraising arm, the mccain institute foundation, according to his office. but mccain has appeared at fundraising events for the institute and his senate campaign<u+2019>s fundraiser is listed in its tax returns as the contact person for the foundation. though federal law strictly bans foreign contributions to electoral campaigns, the restriction doesn<u+2019>t apply to nonprofits engaged in policy, even those connected to a sitting lawmaker <u+2026> the saudi donation to the mccain institute foundation may be the first congressional instance of that trend coming to light <u+2018>the extent of this practice is difficult to gauge, of course,<u+2019> holman said, <u+2018>because we only know about it when a nonprofit or foreign government voluntarily reveals that information.<u+2019><u+201d> (we missed this story when it came out last week but it's caused a stir in arizona, where mccain is up for reelection.) on the campaign trail: here's the rundown: at the white house: president obama headlines a dscc<u+00a0>fundraiser<u+00a0>in los angeles, then travels to san francisco for dnc and dccc<u+00a0>fundraisers.<u+00a0>vice president biden travels from las vegas to boulder, colo., where he speaks at the university of colorado<u+00a0>for the "it's on us<u+00a0>week of action"<u+00a0>against sexual assault and at an event for sen. michael bennet (d-colo.). in the evening, biden departs denver for santa fe, n.m. on capitol hill:<u+00a0>neither the senate nor the house are in session. news you can use if you live in d.c.: -- a mild start to a chilly weekend. the capital weather gang forecasts: <u+201c>arguably, today is nicer than anything we<u+2019>ll see this weekend. even with wind, it<u+2019>s still fairly mild <u+2014> at least comparatively. clouds and rain showers move in tonight through at least tomorrow morning. we may even see a few snowflakes, but snow of note on saturday is more of a long shot than sure thing. hoping to get back outside? sunday should be calmer and sunnier. springtime should try to return next week. whew. hang on to your hats<u+2026><u+201d> -- the golden state warriors beat the san antonio spurs 112-101 to reach 70 wins. -- the capitals lost to the pittsburgh penguins 4-3. -- d.c. police are finally cracking down on illegal dirt bike riders, saying swarms of off-road bikes on the city's streets<u+00a0>have become a <u+201c>dangerous public menace.<u+201d> (peter hermann) -- gov. terry mcauliffe<u+00a0>(d)<u+00a0>abruptly withdrew support for his once-touted economic development strategy, after the democratic attorney general said the $35 million <u+201c>go virginia<u+201d> program probably violates the state constitution. mcauliffe, who gave a <u+201c>full throated endorsement<u+201d> of the program last summer, will try to amend the legislation, giving lawmakers the option to accept or reject his changes when they return to richmond this month. (jenna portnoy) -- donna edwards raised more than $1 million in the first quarter for her senate campaign after struggling to get money last year.<u+00a0>(rachel weiner) -- montgomery county police charged two men with kidnapping and sexually assaulting a 12-year-old girl in march. (clarence williams) -- two students, a chaperone, and a police officer were injured after a police cruiser and school bus crashed in springfield. (victoria st. martin) watch a dramatic video of a knife-wielding man shouting <u+201c>kill me!<u+201d> at an ohio police officer more than 40 times after he was shot in the abdomen. the hero cop shows incredible restraint in the face of danger: political hip hop duo rebel diaz confronted cruz, saying he's not welcome in the neighborhood: clinton began running her first new york spanish-language tv ad: kasich supporters targeted cruz and his derision for "new york values" in this new spot: the washington examiner's david freddoso explained with post-it notes why he doesn't see trump winning in a general election: a woman secretly recorded what her doctors said during surgery: a 12-year-old talked about getting thrown down by a school officer: this stuffed animal was filmed making a trip to the earth's stratosphere:

the daily 202: bill clinton<u+2019>s argument with black lives matter protesters is 2016<u+2019>s sister souljah moment

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the unrest at a trump event was a symbol of a nation of partisans who don't trust each other. but it also highlighted a way forward. how snl's 'the bubble' sketch about polarization is all too true for one night, chicago's harrison street might as well have been capitol hill. on one side of the street stood supporters of donald trump, upset that a campaign rally had been canceled. on the other stood protesters against mr. trump <u+2013> the reason the rally had been canceled. by the end of the night, the tension led to violence and recriminations. for all the grandiose talk this primary season about whom america should choose as president to "fix washington" or "make america great again," it was right there <u+2013> on that friday night in chicago <u+2013> that america's democratic experiment was playing out on its most basic level. the protests, violence, and general chaos that enveloped the presidential race this weekend gave the impression that american politics was spinning out of control.<u+00a0>to the contrary, it was further evidence that the american political process has perhaps never been under tighter control.<u+00a0>not of the establishment. of the voters. friday night in chicago showed that there is little mystery about politics today. washington is divided and angry because american voters are divided and angry. in the not-too-distant past, parties acted as a buffer, wringing some measure of concord from congress's cacophony of voices.<u+00a0>no more. the parable of this election so far has been the impotence of the establishment.<u+00a0>just think how many times and ways the republican establishment has tried to get trump to play by anything approaching the rule book. and who in the democratic national committee really wants bernie sanders to still be in the race? the trend has been building for years. former house speaker john boehner did not want the tea party agenda. the voters forced his hand. the parties are by no means dead, but their influence is a shadow of what it once was. which brings america right back to harrison street.<u+00a0>what this weekend showed, in the starkest terms yet, was that the only practical solution to the problems that seem to beset america is the american voter. if red and blue america <u+2013> separated by a few feet of asphalt and wildly different worldviews <u+2013> can't find a way to get along, then congress doesn't have tools to, either. nor would any president. despite claims to the contrary, the establishment can do little of substance without voter buy-in. in searching for the element that has unified trump voters across economic and geographic groups, abc news found that the single most predictive factor was anger at the establishment. compared with other factors, an abc news poll found that "the idea that trump<u+2019>s popularity is fundamentally based on anger against the existing political establishment, and the sense that an outsider is needed to fix it, have significantly more legs." some 82 percent of trump supporters say they prefer an outsider, the poll found. indeed, america sits at a unique confluence of political history, suggests bruce schulman of reuters.<u+00a0>the influence of the parties is declining as the partisanship of voters is rising.<u+00a0>the result is that tensions are increasing at a time when the parties' ability to manage them is diminishing. "for much of the nation<u+2019>s history, partisan attachments burned just as hot <u+2013> if not hotter <u+2013> than they do today, but strong party organizations disciplined their members and formed effective tools of governance," he writes. "as party organizations weakened and partisan ties gradually atrophied after world war two, space opened up for the influence of a wide variety of interest groups and the emergence of different, but nonetheless workable models of policymaking. now, fierce partisanship has reemerged <u+2013> but without effective party organization or authority to police it." the reasons for the decline of the party are many, he says, from the rise of organized interests to "mass media supplanting the party organization as the principal intermediary between elected officials and ordinary voters." but the development leaves the country with no political referees. the task of governing falls largely to the voters by default. and at this moment, that is a recipe for division. more than a quarter of democrats and democratic-leaning independents (27 percent)<u+00a0>said that the other party's positions <u+201c>are so misguided that they threaten the nation's well-being,<u+201d> according to a 2014 pew research center study. more than one-third of republicans and republican-leaning independents (36 percent) said the same. these make up the core of primary voters. as the monitor's peter grier noted in a cover story, swing voters are disappearing. even declared independents tend to vote for one side consistently, and many are voting<u+00a0>against a party rather than for it. parties have played their part in fueling antagonism for the other party. voters have also sorted themselves along partisan lines in recent years <u+2013> meaning there are few conservative democrats or liberal republicans anymore. the result is a political system that has little common ground. weak parties "may well make effective governance all but impossible,"<u+00a0>mr. schulman of reuters says. but the decline of parties also makes the way forward apparent, if not easy. it comes down to what voters want, and the solution to the status quo is clearly not further polarization. "there is a tendency on the left and the right to associate primarily with like-minded people, to the point of actively avoiding those who disagree," the pew study found. "not surprisingly, this tendency is also tightly entwined with the growing level of partisan antipathy. in both political parties, those with strongly negative views of the other side are more likely to be those who seek out compatible viewpoints." this weekend, that divide was not blue-red or republican-democrat, but a chicago street.

what divides america? this weekend, it was a chicago street.

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washington (cnn) the nine supreme court justices will emerge monday from behind a long red velvet curtain and take their assigned seats on the bench to begin a new term. but most people will still be thinking of the historic nature of the cases decided last term and the fact that for the first time, the left side of the roberts' court won more 5-4 cases than the right. the justices of the us supreme court sit for their official photograph on october 8, 2010, in washington. was it a blip? or has the supreme court gone liberal? many court critics have also questioned the wisdom of the 2010 citizens united v. fec decision, which opened the floodgates for campaign financing, allowing outside groups to spend record amounts. millhiser said the ruling "gave billionaires a far-reaching right to corrupt american democracy." many court critics have also questioned the wisdom of the 2010 citizens united v. fec decision, which opened the floodgates for campaign financing, allowing outside groups to spend record amounts. millhiser said the ruling "gave billionaires a far-reaching right to corrupt american democracy." critics say the court makeup is part of the problem, noting that most justices have been white men from privileged backgrounds. it's an issue, they argue, that can sometimes lead to paternalistic language, as in a 2006 abortion ruling that said "some women come to regret their choice to abort the infant life they once created and sustained." critics say the court makeup is part of the problem, noting that most justices have been white men from privileged backgrounds. it's an issue, they argue, that can sometimes lead to paternalistic language, as in a 2006 abortion ruling that said "some women come to regret their choice to abort the infant life they once created and sustained." other scholars such as clark neily of the libertarian public interest law firm institute for justice defend the court, saying brown v. board of education -- which led to school desegregation, including in little rock, arkansas, in 1957 -- shows that the court is often "better than the other branches of government and society in general." other scholars such as clark neily of the libertarian public interest law firm institute for justice defend the court, saying brown v. board of education -- which led to school desegregation, including in little rock, arkansas, in 1957 -- shows that the court is often "better than the other branches of government and society in general." the court has been on the wrong side of history numerous times, says author ian millhiser of the center for american progress. it issued decisions that legitimized jim crow segregation, approved the forced sterilization of a woman against her will and forced japanese-american citizens into internment camps during world war ii. the court has been on the wrong side of history numerous times, says author ian millhiser of the center for american progress. it issued decisions that legitimized jim crow segregation, approved the forced sterilization of a woman against her will and forced japanese-american citizens into internment camps during world war ii. they point to a 1918 ruling that struck down a federal law banning child labor, which left the practice in place for another two decades. the court said the law was "repugnant to the constitution" because it violated states' rights. at the time, millions of children worked in dangerous mines, dank sweatshops and textile mills such as this one in vermont in 1910. they point to a 1918 ruling that struck down a federal law banning child labor, which left the practice in place for another two decades. the court said the law was "repugnant to the constitution" because it violated states' rights. at the time, millions of children worked in dangerous mines, dank sweatshops and textile mills such as this one in vermont in 1910. another major ruling upheld obamacare subsidies; had it gone the other way, millions could have lost their health care tax credits. some legal scholars say the court's historical mission has been to block change, not validate it, by defending the status quo and ruling in favor of "wealth, power and privilege." another major ruling upheld obamacare subsidies; had it gone the other way, millions could have lost their health care tax credits. some legal scholars say the court's historical mission has been to block change, not validate it, by defending the status quo and ruling in favor of "wealth, power and privilege." the supreme court ruled 5-4 that same-sex marriage is legal nationwide, a decision that profoundly affects the lives of millions of americans. some legal scholars see the court's movement on gay rights issues as proof that it is a force for change. but others say the court's role is largely the opposite. the supreme court ruled 5-4 that same-sex marriage is legal nationwide, a decision that profoundly affects the lives of millions of americans. some legal scholars see the court's movement on gay rights issues as proof that it is a force for change. but others say the court's role is largely the opposite. judicial conservatives and some republican presidential candidates feel abandoned by chief justice john roberts for his vote -- once again -- in favor of the affordable care act, despite the fact that he dissented in other cases they care about concerning issues like gay marriage and housing discrimination. during last month's republican presidential debate, ted cruz, who like roberts served as a law clerk to the late chief justice william rehnquist, suggested that roberts' record was comparable to that of retired justice david souter. in conservative legal circles, souter's nomination, by george h.w. bush, was a disaster because the practically unknown nominee ultimately ended up voting on a consistent basis with the court's more liberal wing. cruz and others still blame the elder bush for throwing away a precious chance to shape the court. souter retired in 2009 after 19 years on the bench giving president barack obama his first chance to nominate a justice. liberals, however, dismiss any such notion the roberts court has veered to the left. "the claim that chief justice roberts is a liberal is preposterous," said elizabeth wydra of the constitutional accountability center, a group that takes a progressive position in many of the hot button cases that come before the court. "to be sure, he deserves credit for rejecting the legally meritless claims against the affordable care act, but if you look at his 10 years on the court, he has unquestionably moved the law in a conservative direction." indeed, any conservative furor might die down this term as the court takes up affirmative action, voting rights, public sector unions and possibly abortion. roberts' votes in those cases are expected to soothe some of his conservative critics. "i would expect a return to the norm," said irving l. gornstein, executive director of the supreme court institute at georgetown university law center, "in which the right side of the court wins the majority but by no means all of the big cases, with justice (anthony) kennedy again the key vote in most of the big cases." as recent years have proved, there is no reliable means of predicting how the court will rule. and several of the most high-profile cases this term offer justices a choice between ruling on broad or narrow grounds. here are some notable cases to watch: in texas, high school seniors who graduate in the top 10% of their class are automatically admitted to any texas state university. in addition to the "top ten percent" program, the school also considers race and other factors for admission. since fisher did not qualify for the program, she applied with other applicants, some of whom were entitled to racial preferences. fisher, who is white, was denied admission. fisher says that since ut already had a race-neutral plan in place, it shouldn't have layered on another program that took race into consideration. her lawyers argue that the use of race is only permissible when there is no other race neutral alternative available. they hope the court will "send a clear message" that public universities must only use race as a "last resort." it's worth noting that fisher is not asking the justices to forbid race-conscious admissions plans at public universities all together. that means the court could rule against the university of texas, but still leave open a crack for other schools to take race into consideration in their admissions programs. the question for many is how big that crack might be. the university of texas argues its use of race is simply one factor among many in its effort to create a diverse student body, saying that its race-neutral programs often target socioeconomic and related factors, and are not an adequate substitute. it's the second time the court has taken up fisher's case. three years ago, the justices agonized over it for nine months before issuing a very narrow opinion and sending the case back down to the lower court for another look. the short and unexpected opinion suggests the justices were at loggerheads. now the case is before them once again and eight justices (justice elena kagan is recused from the case because she dealt with it in her previous job as solicitor general) will most likely rule more definitively. another case targets the issue of "one person one vote," a doctrine dating back to the earl warren court when the supreme court held that state legislative districts must be drawn so they are equal in population. but the court never explicitly defined population. does it refer to the general population? or to the population that can vote? or something in between? that is the crux of evenwel v. abbott. currently most states look to the total population of the district when drawing state lines. but the challengers in this case argue that texas must primarily look at the total number of eligible voters in the state. sue evenwel, a resident of titus county, and others argue that their vote is worth less than people in neighboring districts because those districts have fewer residents who are eligible to vote. in court briefs, evenwel's lawyers say, "the texas legislature redrew the senate map without attempting to ensure that each senate district has approximately the same numbers of eligible voters." the case has political implications. it raises questions not only about the representation of children and persons with felony convictions, but also immigrants. in general, rural districts tend to be more republican than urban districts that often include more non-voters. a collection of civil-rights groups has filed a brief in support of texas. "the constitution declares equality before the law, that's the fundamental premise for a representative democracy," says katherine culliton-gonzalez of the advancement project, a civil-rights organization. "each person should be a whole person, and each person has a right to representation whether you are a child, an immigrant or no matter what your race," she said. in 1977, the court ruled that the first amendment allows public-sector unions to require non-member employees to pay union fees for expenses related to workplace bargaining, such as wage disputes and contract negotiations. the employees don't, however, have to pay fees for anything considered to be ideological advocacy. justice samuel alito and other conservatives on the court have questioned that court precedent, and it could be vulnerable this term in a case called friedrichs v. california teachers association. rebecca friedrichs and other public school teachers filed suit arguing that the supposed distinction between collective bargaining and ideological advocacy is blurred. they contend that the fees for collective bargaining speech in fact advance a distinct political viewpoint on matters such as seniority or pay raise. terry pell, of the center for individual rights, a non-profit public interest firm representing the friedrichs plaintiffs, says for example, "when the union presses for seniority based school assignment policies it is stepping into one of the most hot button issues in education reform today." the case comes at a time when unionization in general is declining and the future of unions has been a target in the current presidential campaign. "i don't think if the plaintiffs win this case it will be the death knell for public sector unions," says ann c. hodges, a professor of law at the university of richmond, who notes that public-sector unions continue in the 25 states that currently forbid mandatory fees. "however, it will make it more difficult for unions to provide representation for workers because those who pay dues will have to subsidize representation for workers who don't pay and there will be a disincentive for workers to join." "the real story this term has yet to be written--and could come from the cases that are on their way to the court," says stephen i. vladeck, of american university washington college of law and a cnn contributor. that might include a challenge to president barack obama's immigration policies as well as a return to the issue of the military commissions at guantanamo bay. two of the most likely cases that justices might take up concern abortion and the affordable care act's contraceptive mandate. the court has not heard an abortion case since 2007 and might take up a challenge that goes straight to court precedent testing what makes up an undue burden for a woman seeking an abortion. at issue are two aspects of an abortion law in texas that if allowed to go into effect, could close all but 10 clinics. one provision requires that doctors who perform abortions have admitting privileges at a nearby hospital. the others mandate that clinics upgrade their facilities to hospital-like standards. texas says that the aim of the law is to protect women's health. but abortion providers who are challenging the law say that texas' real aim is not to protect women's health, but to close clinics. the court might also agree to hear a case challenging the so called "contraceptive mandate" in the affordable care act brought by non-profit groups such as the little sisters of the poor. while churches are exempt from the mandate, the obama administration has set up an accommodation for nonprofits that object to having to provide certain contraceptives as a violation of their religious beliefs. the groups say the accommodation still makes them complicit in providing the coverage.

is the supreme court poised for a shift to the right?

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mike pence and tim kaine will take the stage for the<u+00a0>vice presidential debate on tuesday night. the vice president arguably holds the second most powerful office in the country <u+2014> in part because there<u+2019>s a chance the president will die or have to resign in office, in part because the president has increasingly delegated key duties and powers to the post. but the way america chooses its vice presidents seems to give little weight to the gravity of the role. presidential candidates pick their number two during the heat of a campaign, and the vps often represent some short-term electoral interest far more than readiness for the job. as was very much the case this year, questions about the vp are far more likely to center on their impact on a swing state or on solidifying a crucial voting bloc than about experience and presidential mettle. to find out if there might be a better way of doing things, i talked to six political scientists who have studied the vice presidency. it turns out there actually is a strong defense for keeping things as they are <u+2014> just not the one i had expected. the constitution has required that the vice president be on the ballot, in one form or another, since our nation<u+2019>s founding. but i was relieved to learn that i'm not the only one to think the way we pick vps in the heat of an election cycle seems somewhat nutty. in the early 1970s, michigan sen. bob griffin proposed an amendment to the constitution that would have ended the direct election of vice presidents and instead let presidents appoint their vps, subject to congressional approval, after being sworn in. of course, the idea didn<u+2019>t go anywhere. but it wasn<u+2019>t without its supporters <u+2014> especially after richard nixon<u+2019>s veep, spiro agnew, had to resign over accusations of extortion and tax fraud. at the time, reporters like tom wicker of the new york times made a case similar to mine, according to john d. feerick<u+2019>s the twenty-fifth amendment: its complete history and applications. wicker wrote: wicker<u+2019>s point is twofold: 1) that vps are often chosen out of "ruthless" political calculation alone, and 2) that voters don<u+2019>t really get to vote on whether they support the vp. some of the contemporary political science research backs wicker up. "there<u+2019>s little evidence that voters make any consideration based on the vice president," says joseph e. uscinski, a political scientist at the university of miami and the author of several studies on the vice presidency. you<u+2019>d think that nominees wouldn<u+2019>t then let electoral factors seep into their choices. "but they do, and sometimes that gives us vice presidents who don<u+2019>t do what the presidents, or the presidents' voters, wanted," uscinski says. you don<u+2019>t need to go back to the 1970s to see how short-term electoral considerations can warp presidential candidates<u+2019> vp picks <u+2014> with really worrying implications. the most obvious recent example is sarah palin in 2008, when sen. john mccain <u+2014> hoping for a hail mary comeback in the polls <u+2014> picked the obviously unqualified alaska governor in the hopes of firing up his party<u+2019>s base. mccain and palin lost, of course. but mccain certainly theoretically could have won, and he could have died while in office. we may have risked a disastrous presidency in part because we make presidents choose their successors when an election is at stake. there<u+2019>s enough historical evidence of this happening for us to know that it isn<u+2019>t just an unlikely possibility. in 1864, abraham lincoln chose southern white unionist <u+2014> and, it turned out, white supremacist <u+2014> andrew johnson for his vp, in a bid for geographic diversity. after lincoln was assassinated, johnson advanced a disastrous set of reconstruction policies totally at odds with what the "great emancipator" and his republican base wanted. (plus, lincoln lost the southern state of kentucky that year anyway.) discrepancies between the potus and the vp have also made leadership crises more difficult to resolve, and may even create an incentive for political assassins, uscinski wrote in one recent paper. in 1881, president james garfield was shot twice in the back but stubbornly clung to life for 80 days while completely incapacitated. some lawmakers wanted to resolve the crisis by making vp chester arthur president but feared the political implications of doing so, because arthur and garfield came from different factions and had completely contradictory policies on civil service reform. "presidential candidates have often opted for running mates who are politically different from the head of the ticket ... to increase the chances of winning the general election," uscinski writes. "but when presidents and vice presidents differ significantly, the country could inherit espousing policies the country does not democratically support." uscinski<u+2019>s argument here isn<u+2019>t just that an "unqualified" vp could become president despite not enjoying the support of much of the country. it<u+2019>s that we explicitly look to vice presidents to complement the ideological profiles of the nominees, thereby intentionally inserting confusion into our government that could, potentially, be avoided under a different system. so if the vice presidency is a powder keg of risk and undemocratic outcomes, then why shouldn<u+2019>t presidents just appoint vps like cabinet members? (i know vox stories are unlikely to spur new constitutional amendments, but bear with me.) after all, you never hear of a president tapping an unqualified secretary of state merely to cement a voting bloc these days <u+2014> right? "i agree that it<u+2019>s a messy system and that there are a number of anomalies," says joel goldstein, a law professor at st. louis university and the author of a new book about the modern vice presidency. "but my bottom line is that the system we have makes the most sense when all things are considered." goldstein has lots of compelling defenses of our current system, but they boil down to one essential point: requiring vps to be confirmed by a gridlocked congress (as is the norm for high-level presidential appointees) could be nightmarish. right now, a president basically gets to pick anyone he wants for his running mate (if his convention<u+2019>s delegates approve the choice). if he wins a landslide at the ballot box, the other party doesn<u+2019>t get a veto of the vp. that would probably have to change if the us tried to convert the vice presidency into a position chosen after the election. and just imagine a recently elected president hillary clinton trying to get her vp nominee through a republican senate, goldstein says. the difference between who she thought would be good for the job and who she could get approved would, presumably, be even greater than it is under our current arrangement. "giving congress a veto seems less democratic than giving the public a veto," goldstein says. he adds that vice presidents have become increasingly powerful over the past several decades. subjecting that office to our current partisan warfare just doesn<u+2019>t seem like a promising way to improve the vp<u+2019>s accountability or effectiveness. "the vice president has become an office that provides high-level help to the president as a senior political adviser and high-level troubleshooter," goldstein says. "and that<u+2019>s at a time when most of the rest of the government is appearing increasingly dysfunctional. i don<u+2019>t think we should mess around with it." the upshot of the political science research is clear: when it comes to its impact on who wins, most of the media obsession over the vp selection is dramatically overstated. in one study recently highlighted in politico, two political scientists found that vice presidents don<u+2019>t even have a statistical impact on increasing votes for the ticket in their home states. "demographic groups don<u+2019>t fall in line because of a vp selection, and neither do states," says kyle kopko, a political scientist at elizabethtown college, who conducted the research with university of dayton political scientist chris devine. "voters think of partisan preferences and what the presidential candidates are saying." but the political scientists also argued that the vp choice can make a difference <u+2014> even if it tends not to. the experts can<u+2019>t often find examples of vp picks really siphoning votes away from the nominee. but that may be because our current system is effectively deterring presidential nominees from picking running mates that really hurt their chances. another reason for optimism: there<u+2019>s growing evidence that presidential nominees understand the importance of picking a good governing partner over an illusory electoral gain, says matt grossmann, a political scientist at michigan state. "i think presidents are recognizing what the vp means," adds matt dickinson, a political scientist at middlebury college. "the most recent presidential candidates seem to be made from a need for a governing partner as much as for any electoral gain." the idea of sarah palin becoming president because of some quirk in the system seems to argue against this. but maybe she<u+2019>s also a sign that voters really do punish <u+2014> and therefore consider <u+2014> terrible vp picks. (indeed, one study has found that picking palin cost mccain about 2 million votes.) "yes, there are some exceptions, but the fact that the presidential candidate has to pick someone before an election tends to force them to pick pretty good people," goldstein says. "you<u+2019>d really lose something by not having the vice president as part of the campaign."

why the way we pick our vps is terrible

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"this is an example of donald trump managing, and the type of leadership he will bring to the presidency in november," manafort said in an exclusive interview with cnn's chris cuomo. "he also understood that winning isn't enough, that it's about how you win and how much you win." manafort told cnn, "i work directly for the boss," a notable departure from the usual workflow at trump's 2016 operation, where most campaign staff answer to campaign manager corey lewandowski. manafort joins the trump campaign as a contested republican convention becomes more likely. trump suffered a critical loss to texas sen. ted cruz tuesday in the wisconsin primary. however, the strategist says he is confident the cruz campaign will hit a rough patch, allowing trump to win the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination outright. "utah and new york are two different states," he said. "by the time we get to california, the momentum is going to be clear, and ted cruz's path to victory will be in shambles." donald trump has 746 delegates to date of the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination outright, meaning trump would have to win the remaining 61% of delegates up for grabs. related: donald trump looks to dominate new york manafort is also optimistic trump will block cruz's chance of winning on the first ballot if the convention is contested. "you got to understand what the game is. if the game is a second, third or fourth ballot then what he's doing is clever, but on the first ballot it is meaningless." manafort's experience in campaigns goes back to the 1976 contested republican convention . trump's hiring of manafort fueled speculation he was replacing campaign manager corey lewandowski. however, manafort insists there was no internal shakeup. "i listen to everybody," he said. "i view my job as making sure people get to understand and meet donald trump."

trump rnc manager: 'winning isn't enough'

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washington (cnn) president barack obama's televised address on isis on sunday night was meant to calm the public's escalating fears of terrorism, to chide 2016 candidates about explosive rhetoric over waging war and the place of muslims in society and to defend his own efforts to combat the extremist group. whether it succeeded on any of those counts may depend where observers sit on the polarized u.s. political spectrum. but while it was largely a stay-the-course speech rather than one that heralds swift or significant changes to the anti-terrorism approach obama has pursued throughout his presidency, the president did make several proposals and highlight some evolution in how the united states will go after isis in syria and iraq. he notably put the emphasis on congress to take action on making it more difficult for terrorists to acquire guns in the united states and to enact changes to visa programs in the wake of the san bernardino attack. obama also wants lawmakers to finally put the war against isis on firm legal footing. here is a look at the president's proposals -- and the chances that they will actually happen. what the president said: "if congress believes, as i do, that we are at war with isil, it should go ahead and vote to authorize the continued use of military force against these terrorists." the united states has spent more than a year pounding isis targets in iraq and syria from the air. obama has sent special operations forces to syria and several thousand soldiers are in iraq. now, there are plans for the pentagon to send a specialized expeditionary force to iraq to target isis. but officially, this is an undeclared war. the administration has cited authorizations that permitted both the war in iraq and the fight against al qaeda to justify its actions but has repeatedly called on congress to update its mandate to reflect the new threat from isis. but it has not yet happened. why? despite obama's comments in his address, the white house is not optimistic that congress will move soon. the administration introduced its proposal in february, hoping to get a jump on the political season. but like much else touching on the war on terror, the presidential and congressional elections in 2016 are now weighing on lawmakers. democrats running for re-election are wary of tough votes authorizing a new war that may upset the party's dovish grass roots. republicans don't like the president's proposal, but they haven't drafted their own version and punt by saying the administration already claims to have sufficient authority. and there's a dispute over language. the white house request for an aumf lasting three years included a provision that prevents "enduring offensive ground combat operations." republicans, who want a more robust u.s. effort and are wary of tying the hands of a possible future gop president, rejected such restrictions. house majority leader kevin mccarthy said monday that the version of the authorization that the administration sent to congress earlier this year would "limit" the military, so "it would have to be something different." what the president said: "congress should act to make sure no one on a no-fly list is able to buy a gun ... this is a matter of national security. we also need to make it harder for people to buy powerful assault weapons like the ones that were used in san bernardino." just as the newtown massacre and other mass killings did not budge the politics of gun control, the same dynamic applies after san bernardino -- one reason why obama is now framing gun control as a matter of "national security." making it more difficult for a potential terrorist to buy a gun, in essence, would entail making it more difficult for everyone to buy a gun. that's why die-hard second amendment supporters in both parties are wary of the idea, with many republicans and democrats unenthusiastic about a tough vote on guns in an election year -- especially those from rural districts where gun rights are a potent issue for many voters. in fact, even the day after the san bernardino killings, the republican-controlled senate rejected a bill that would prevent people on a federal terrorism watch list from buying guns. house speaker paul ryan on monday told the wisconsin state journal in an interview that obama's no-fly list plan was a "distraction," saying many people ended up on such databases erroneously and risked losing their due process rights, a concern echoed by some 2016 gop hopefuls. mccarthy made it clear monday that republicans are not inclined to take up the proposal that the president pushed to deny guns to those on the terror watch list used by airlines. some congressional republicans want a judge to weigh in on whether someone should be on the list before his or her constitutional right to bear arms is taken away. obama's other gun control efforts have repeatedly hit a brick wall in congress, and he has frequently expressed frustration at his failure to do more despite ordering a series of executive actions. his efforts to pass an assault weapons ban, for instance, failed in 2013. the white house is preparing an executive order to expand background checks, given its expectation that nothing will make it through legislatively. but white house officials say the legal and administrative challenges are difficult to surmount, and that the order is going to take some time to prepare. and the president has acknowledged that wielding his own executive power cannot be as effective as action from congress. what the president said: "we should put in place stronger screening for those who come to america without a visa so that we can take a hard look at whether they've traveled to war zones." obama also said that he had ordered the departments of homeland security and state to review the visa program under which the female terrorist in san bernardino originally came to this country as a fiancee of a u.s. citizen. the visa waiver program appears to be one rare area where there is bipartisan agreement on how to act. the paris attacks especially alarmed u.s. security experts because of the fear that thousands of europeans have traveled to syria to fight with isis. and if those people have european passports, they don't need a visa to enter the united states, potentially making it possible for isis to easily dispatch operatives into the united states. one measure being considered in the house and likely to get white house support would ensure that nationals of iraq, syria, iran or sudan, or those who've visited those countries since 2011, cannot travel to the united states without a visa. instead, individuals from designated countries will have to be vetted through a more rigorous process. it requires countries who participate in the visa waiver program to share counterterrorism information or risk being cut out. and it also enhances screening for criminal activity. the bill is expected to pass with a big bipartisan vote in the house on tuesday and may be added to broad government spending bills so has a good chance of being signed into law soon. still, changing the visa waiver program is fraught with diplomatic complications. visa-free travel to the united states is a prized privilege for many national governments and is strongly supported by the u.s. tourism industry. and changes to the program could also spark reprisals and complications for americans who travel abroad. islam and the politics of 2016 what the president said: "we cannot turn against one another by letting this fight be defined as a war between america and islam." this horse is already out of the barn. several prominent gop presidential candidates -- donald trump and marco rubio, for instance -- have declared that america is facing a civilizational war against radical islam. they have bashed democrats like obama and democratic front-runner hillary clinton for not using similar terminology, arguing it shows they don't comprehend the nature of the threat or prefer to avoid offense rather than accurately delineate the enemy. the president and his former secretary of state argue that using such terminology stigmatizes every muslim and actually plays into isis's hands by making it seem like a legitimate representative of a great faith. this is a dispute that will continue up to the 2016 election and beyond. what the president said: "the threat from terrorism is real, but we will overcome it. we will destroy isil and any other organization that tries to harm us." it is not just congress that obama sees as frustrating his effort to combat isis. the realities of the conflict-torn middle east, a region festering with sectarian hatred, geopolitical gambits by major nations and a collapse of the political order that has been in place for a century are posing imposing obstacles to u.s. strategy. on the upside, the president can legitimately claim to have assembled a 65-nation coalition to go after isis in a campaign that includes air strikes in iraq and syria that have killed thousands of militants, covert intelligence work and an effort to choke the extremist group's financial network. but there is a glaring reason why obama has struggled to effectively sell his strategy: it does not seem sufficiently broad, kinetic or aggressive to accomplish the goal around which he built his speech -- the ultimate destruction of isis. another factor weighing against a big change in strategy is the self imposed limit that obama has placed on the entire enterprise. he is staying faithful to his refusal to commit u.s. troops to another major middle east entanglement -- citing the quagmire that developed after the iraq war. then, there is the intractable nature of civil wars in iran and syria, which have fractured both nations and allowed isis to build a vast cross-border terror haven. even if the air campaign against isis in strongholds like raqqa in syria and mosul in iraq succeeds -- progress may be fleeting without a vast ground force to secure territory, consolidate gains and allow space for the return of administrative politics. but western leaders, with iraq in mind, have little desire or political backing to commit a vast land army. so they, and 2016 presidential candidates, spend a lot of time calling for regional, arab and other powers to step into the breach. but those governments are no more willing or able to thrust their soldiers into the cauldron either. and many have goals in syria that contradict u.s aspirations, leading to inertia. then there is the influence of other powers involved in syria, like iran and russia -- which may have common interests in defeating isis, but are hardly on the same page as the u.s. still, the administration says it is encouraged by the increasing role of allies like france and britain in the military air campaign over syria since the isis rampage on the streets of paris last month that killed 130 people. but due to the limited capabilities of its partners, washington will still do most of the heavy lifting in the air campaign. the administration has also touted recent german pledges to ramp up reconnaissance over syria. but at the same time, arab partners have stepped back. saudi arabia and the united arab emirates are now more focused on combating houthi rebels in yemen. the white house is working with turkey to seal the remaining 98 kilometers of unsecured border with syria, an effort that includes both turkish and syrian arab forces hoping to cut the flows of foreign fighters into the syrian civil war -- and their return to europe. in the absence of a continued military campaign from the sunni arab states -- which the u.s. would like to see resume -- the white house is hopeful those nations can capitalize on their relationships with opposition forces in syria. saudi arabia is also hosting an upcoming meeting of different opposition groups that the u.s. hopes can help pave the way for their participation in a political transition process that would see the eventual departure of syrian president bashar al-assad and a theoretical revival of the syrian state but those incremental steps, though significant, are unlikely to paper over the fundamental weaknesses of the anti-isis fight.

will any of obama's isis proposals succeed?

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on behalf of the u.s. house of representatives, i extend my warmest wishes to everyone celebrating christmas this year. we spend a lot of time this season asking for what we want. but perhaps it would be better to ask for what we need. we have been given so much in this country that it almost seems ungrateful to ask for more. but all of us<u+2014>at all times<u+2014>need more of what is good. and this year, i hope that all of us continue to live in what i consider the spirit of christmas: a courageous humility. it took courage for god to humble himself. he came down from heaven and became a man<u+2014>a child in a manger. he did this while knowing that one day he would have to lay down his life for us. he would have to give up his only son. at first, this might seem like a sad story. but we are to <u+201c>rejoice in the lord always.<u+201d> christmas is a day of celebration. and it is only through grace and prayer that we come to realize: what a gift he<u+2019>s given us<u+2014>what a profound act of love. and so we rejoice. this year, may we continue the spirit of christmas by facing our flaws fearlessly and by giving back boldly. may we recognize that our way is not the only way<u+2014>it is not even the right way. it is god<u+2019>s way we seek. may we cherish all the gifts we have been given<u+2014>especially the men and women of our armed forces, the people who keep us safe. and may we remember that it takes courage to put others first. it is courageous to do the right thing. may we remember, and be brave<u+2014>and be glad. republican paul ryan is speaker of the u.s. house of representatives. he represents wisconsin's 1st congressional district. follow him on twitter @speakerryan.

speaker paul ryan: let's live in the christmas spirit

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with the department of homeland security<u+2019>s funding set to expire feb. 27, sen. ted cruz (r., texas) complained that gop leaders lacked a strategy for how to proceed and blamed a larger funding bill approved in december for putting his party in a <u+201c>box canyon.<u+201d> congress remains splintered over how to fund dhs, which runs the secret service, border patrol agencies, as well as airport and port security, among other things. meanwhile, dhs secretary jeh johnson told cnn on sunday that failing to extend funding for the agency would mean 30,000 employees at his agency would be sent home indefinitely without pay. he suggested the white house was unwilling to negotiate a dhs funding bill if any changes to the immigration policy were part of the discussions.

cruz says fate of homeland security in gop leadership<u+2019>s hands

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mitch mcconnell has decided to wager the republican majority in the senate on blocking barack obama<u+2019>s pick for the supreme court. it<u+2019>s a bold and understandable gambit designed to prevent a leftward lurch in jurisprudence after antonin scalia<u+2019>s unexpected death this weekend, but it could backfire badly. assuming the president picks a hispanic, african american or asian american <u+2013> bonus points if she<u+2019>s a woman <u+2013> this could be exactly what democrats need to re-activate the obama coalition that fueled his victories in 2008 and 2012. even if he does not go with a minority candidate, the cases on the docket will galvanize voters who are traditionally less likely to turn out. [get your campaign fix delivered directly to your email inbox with<u+00a0>the daily 202] last night in las vegas, for example, hillary clinton said it would be nakedly partisan and unconscionable if republicans don<u+2019>t give a hearing to the president<u+2019>s nominee. and she emphasized the immigration case that the justices recently agreed to hear. <u+201c>because of his passing, there will be most likely a tie, four to four, on important issues that affect so many people in our country,<u+201d> the democratic front-runner said. <u+201c>and the most important is the decision about president obama<u+2019>s actions under daca and dapa. if there is no new justice appointed, then as with other cases before the court, the decision that was decided will stay in place. and that was a bad decision.<u+201d> keep in mind that a quarter of nevada<u+2019>s population is hispanic. beyond being a battleground in the presidential race, there is also an open senate race to succeed harry reid. democrats will nominate a latina and republicans will nominate a white guy who is already in congress. or take abortion rights. marco rubio is against abortion even in cases of rape and incest. for women, the prospect of roe v. wade being overturned just became much more real. <u+201c>when i<u+2019>m president of the united states, i<u+2019>ll nominate someone like justice scalia,<u+201d> the florida senator declared on the sunday shows. and environmentalists just this month saw the court put a stay on obama<u+2019>s clean power plan. the next justice will be the swing vote who determines the future of coal in the united states. though these sorts of cases mean that business interests will pour more money than ever into 2016 races, it could also help democrats attract crucial suburban women who might lean to the right<u+00a0>but worry about global warming. more broadly, this could also undermine efforts by senate republicans to show that they are capable of governing and not just <u+201c>the party of no.<u+201d> make no mistake: the upper chamber will grind to a standstill if the gop follows through on this threat. democrats who are inclined to work with them promise to stop doing so if republicans play hardball. -- ultimately, though, there is not really anything democrats can do procedurally to force judiciary committee chairman chuck grassley to hold a hearing on obama<u+2019>s nominee. the only lever they have is public pressure. the most potent pressure points are the seven gop incumbents who are up for reelection this year in states obama carried in 2012. new hampshire<u+2019>s kelly ayotte and wisconsin<u+2019>s ron johnson publicly came out in favor of obstruction yesterday. the others are holding their cards close to the vest for right now: ohio<u+2019>s rob portman praised scalia but would not address the core issue. spokesmen for pennsylvania<u+2019>s pat toomey declined to comment and illinois<u+2019> mark kirk ignored inquiries, per cnn. pay particularly close attention to portman, who is already vulnerable and could be wiped out if african americans make up the same percentage of the electorate in 2016 as they did in 2012. they are likelier to vote if they believe he is disrespecting the first black president. <u+201c>i intend to continue to talk about this until the polls close,<u+201d> former ohio gov. ted strickland, the democratic candidate against portman, told my colleague paul kane yesterday. <u+201c>senator portman, who has your allegiance, your country or your party leaders? <u+2026> the people have spoken, on two occasions,<u+201d> he added, referring to obama<u+2019>s 2008 and 2012 victories. -- conventional wisdom is that whichever party wins the white house in november will control the senate. that<u+2019>s obviously the primary factor, but we<u+2019>re not convinced it will be determinative. democrats need to pick up four seats to win the senate, and it<u+2019>s conceivable they could get those from states that clinton would probably carry even if she loses the electoral college. in 2014, it<u+2019>s worth recalling, democrats lost each of the seven seats they had to defend in states mitt romney had carried two years earlier. and remember that this won<u+2019>t be happening in a vacuum: if obama knows for sure that his pick is not going to get formally considered, he can go with someone who gives his party maximum political leverage to bludgeon these republican incumbents. monica m<u+00e1>rquez is the first latina and first openly gay justice on the supreme court in colorado, which will again be a crucial swing state. attorney general loretta lynch is an african american woman. lucy koh is the first asian american district judge in the northern district of california.<u+00a0>he could also go with someone who was previously confirmed unanimously by the senate to give additional rhetorical heft to his attacks that republicans are being hypocrites. -- what<u+2019>s the republican political calculus? blocking judges historically motivates their base <u+2013> including donors and the u.s. chamber <u+2013> more than it does liberals. and they don<u+2019>t think independents will really care all that much. it will just sound like more washington noise.<u+00a0>mcconnell, not a favorite of the grassroots, also needs to keep his own base ginned up. amidst a presidential primary, it is untenable for republicans to look like rubber stamps for obama. chris christie offers a cautionary tale for gop members. his bubble in new hampshire was punctured when opponents began attacking him for offering support of sonia sotomayor while he was running for governor of new jersey in 2008. christie denied making comments he had made. allies and rivals agree that the sotomayor hit was a turning point for his campaign. republicans who fear primary challenges, such as alabama<u+2019>s richard shelby, are never going to back any obama nominee. most smart republicans in d.c. still believe either trump or cruz would lose a general election. their hope is that a supreme court vacancy might help galvanize conservative volunteers to go do work for endangered senate incumbents. -- to be sure, not every democrat has a clean nose on this: harry reid shortsightedly invoked the nuclear option in 2013, which allows non-supreme court judges to be approved by a simple majority. this incensed republicans and only accelerated the upper chamber<u+2019>s decline to be more like the unruly house. lindsey graham, one of just two current gop senators who voted to confirm elena kagan during obama<u+2019>s first term, tells the post that reid poisoned the well by going nuclear. <u+201c>i voted for every supreme court justice nominated by bush and obama. i believe the senate should be deferential to qualified picks,<u+201d> the south carolina senator said. <u+201c>but i did tell harry reid and the president that the consequence of changing the rules in the senate to pack the court will come back to haunt them.<u+201d> george f. will also zeroes in on reid<u+2019>s use of the nuclear option in his column today, which he describes as <u+201c>institutional vandalism.<u+201d> he frames the battle this way: <u+201c>scalia<u+2019>s death will enkindle a debate missing from this year<u+2019>s presidential campaign, a debate discomfiting for some conservatives: do they want a passive court that is deferential to legislative majorities and to presidents who claim untrammeled powers deriving from national majorities? or do they want a court actively engaged in defending liberty<u+2019>s borders against unjustified encroachments by majorities?<u+201d> -- the big question right now: will there even be a confirmation hearing? mcconnell<u+2019>s saturday night statement declaring that the vacancy should be filled by the next president did not rule out the possibility of a confirmation hearing or floor time to consider whoever the president picks. that might be the more politically astute play, since republicans could slow walk the vetting, trickle out negative revelations about the nominee to right-wing media outlets and then ultimately vote to reject the nominee. having hearings could give some cover to purple state republicans to say they are doing their jobs. <u+201c>if the republican leadership refuses to even hold a hearing, i think that is going to guarantee they're going to lose control of the senate," said patrick leahy, the ranking democrat on the judiciary committee. plus, even if obama<u+2019>s pick gets past the judiciary committee, they will be hard pressed to get confirmed by the full senate. fourteen republicans would need to come out against cruz<u+2019>s promised filibuster. during obama<u+2019>s first term, when democrats held a near super-majority, only nine republicans voted for sotomayor and five voted for kagan. given that the senate is on a president<u+2019>s day recess, white house spokesman eric schultz said obama will not rush out an announcement this week. this gives both sides a few days to poll and focus group their options. a former top adviser to the president says the gop could have been savvier: -- another wildcard: how will the press cover this? one of the mainstream media<u+2019>s problems is a really short attention span. what is unknowable today is whether this vacancy is a two-week story, a two-month story or a 10-month story? also, is the narrative that republicans are creating an unprecedented constitutional crisis? or is it played as a boring he-said, he-said storyline? democrats note that obama still has the bully pulpit, so he can come up with creative ways to drive news coverage about the gop<u+2019>s failure to bring his nominee up for a vote. the party can also use paid media to target the vulnerable republican incumbents. -- for both sides, it really is difficult to overstate the stakes: scalia left an indelible mark on both the court and our country for nearly three decades, and his replacement could do the same. ironically, if clinton wins and democrats retake the senate after mcconnell spends the year taking heat, she will have a mandate to put the most progressive justice imaginable on the bench. and republicans will have no real grounds to oppose her. for mcconnell, right now, that<u+2019>s a risk worth taking. the buzz at the capitol: <u+201c>some hopeful democrats now see the nomination of a sitting senator as the best chance obama has to seat another justice on the supreme court before leaving office,<u+201d> juliet eilperin and paul kane report. <u+201c>there are several senate democrats who fit that description, including amy klobuchar (minn.), sheldon whitehouse (r.i.), christopher a. coons (del.) and richard j. durbin (ill.). but individuals who have spoken with the white house about the nomination process <u+2026> said the president is interested in a candidate who is young enough to serve an extended period of time. only two of those senators <u+2014> klobuchar, at 55, and coons, at 52 <u+2014> are younger than 60, the age justice ruth bader ginsburg was when she was nominated.<u+201d> <u+2026> but we hear that potus is more likely to go with someone who has already been confirmed and vetted. <u+201c>although obama has installed fewer federal appellate judges than either presidents clinton or george w. bush, he has put enough nominees on the bench that democratic appointees are in the majority on nine of the nation<u+2019>s 13 circuit courts,<u+201d> juliet and paul note. <u+201c>in that group, the 9th circuit<u+2019>s paul j. watford, a 48-year-old african american, and sri srinivasan, a 48-year-old judge on u.s. court of appeals for the district of columbia circuit who would be the first south-asian american on the supreme court, would be the leading contenders. others include the d.c. circuit<u+2019>s patricia ann millett, 52, and jane l. kelly, 51, a judge on the 8th circuit who was confirmed 96 to 0<u+201d> with the support of grassley. -- what does the loss of scalia mean for cases currently on the docket? <u+201c>in the short term, conservatives could still prevail on many of the cases before the court this term. but the wins could come in the form of tie votes that preserve the status quo rather than provide precedents that will shape the future,<u+201d> writes robert barnes, our supreme court correspondent. a big break for public employee unions: <u+201c>at oral arguments, the court seemed prepared to hand a significant defeat to organized labor and side with a group of california teachers who claim that their free-speech rights are violated when they are forced to pay dues to the state<u+2019>s teachers union. the court<u+2019>s conservatives <u+2014> scalia included <u+2014> appeared ready to junk a 40-year-old precedent that allows unions to collect an <u+2018>agency fee<u+2019> from nonmembers to support collective-bargaining activities for members and nonmembers alike. but the u.s. court of appeals for the 9th circuit, citing that precedent, had ruled for the union. and with the supreme court<u+2019>s liberals seemingly united in upholding the precedent, a 4-to-4 vote would mean the union victory would stand.<u+201d> the law could be interpreted differently in different regions: <u+201c>for instance, a texas law that imposes new restrictions on abortion providers was found constitutional by a panel of the u.s. court of appeals for the 5th circuit. a 4-to-4 tie would uphold that finding. but a similar law in wisconsin was struck down and would be unaffected by the court<u+2019>s tie in the texas case.<u+201d> barnes adds that, if republican leaders hold firm, it will also affect which cases the justices choose to take up when the next term starts in october. (read a breakdown of how four cases will likely be impacted here.) -- chaos, confusion and conflicting reports in the hours after scalia<u+2019>s death, which happened during a blue quail hunting trip. from lana straub, eva ruth moravec, sari horwitz and jerry markon: after his body was discovered, it took hours for authorities in remote west texas to find a justice of the peace. <u+201c>when they did, she pronounced scalia dead of natural causes without seeing the body and decided not to order an autopsy. a second justice of the peace, who was called but couldn<u+2019>t get to scalia<u+2019>s body in time, said she would have ordered an autopsy. <u+2018>if it had been me .<u+2009>.<u+2009>. i would want to know,<u+2019> juanita bishop, a justice of the peace in presidio, tex., told the washington post in an interview sunday.<u+201d> some details of his final hours at the cibolo creek ranch, a luxury compound less than an hour from the mexican border, remain opaque: <u+201c>as late as sunday afternoon, there were conflicting reports about whether an autopsy would be performed, though officials later said scalia<u+2019>s body was being embalmed and there would be no autopsy. one report, by wfaa-tv in dallas, said the death certificate would show the cause of the death was a heart attack.<u+201d> -- south carolina is ground zero for the republican race<u+2014> ratings: 13.5 million watched the cbs debate on saturday, surpassing the 13.3 million who watched last weekend<u+2019>s debate on abc and the 8 million who watched the democratic debate in milwaukee on pbs/cnn. (cnn money) driving the day: laura and george w. bush headline a rally for jeb in north charleston tonight. <u+201c>it tacks away from bush<u+2019>s months-long insistence that he<u+2019>s running as <u+2018>my own man,<u+2019> but could be a perfect fit for south carolina,<u+201d> the associated press notes in a curtain-raiser.<u+00a0><u+201c>george h.w. bush won twice here. in 2000, george w. bush beat john mccain. now it<u+2019>s his brother<u+2019>s turn.<u+201d> kasich<u+2019>s super pac circulated a cnn clip from when jeb said in new hampshire last may, <u+201c>i think that in washington during my brother's time republicans spent too much money. he could have used the veto power. he didn't have line item veto power, but he could have brought budget discipline to washington, d.c." republican leaders are predicting record turnout in saturday<u+2019>s primary: <u+201c>the electorate here will be about twice as big as iowa and new hampshire combined,<u+201d> said state gop chairman matt moore. <u+201c>a third are very conservative, a third are somewhat; a third are moderate.<u+201d> he<u+2019>s quoted in a charleston post and courier story about efforts to <u+201c>restore south carolina<u+2019>s credibility in picking the eventual nominee.<u+201d> from the piece: <u+201c>gop voters here chose correctly in all the party races since 1980 until the turnabout in 2012. <u+2018>south carolinians kind of blew it last time voting for gingrich,<u+2019> said clemson professor david woodard, who thinks the state is trump<u+2019>s to lose. <u+2018>they<u+2019>re taking their <u+2018>first-in-the-south primary<u+2019> and <u+2018>we pick presidents<u+2019> to heart. there is a seriousness here that<u+2019>s on display this time.<u+2019><u+201d> on the sunday shows, trump focused on cruz. "justice john roberts gave us obamacare twice," trump said on abc. "he could have ended obamacare twice. he got there because ted cruz pushed him like wild. ... cruz shouldn't be talking because that was among the worst appointments i've ever seen. we have obamacare because of ted cruz, jeb bush and george bush." trump also emphasized cruz's personality: "no endorsements, no support <u+2014> he's a lone wolf. he's going to get nothing done, he's not a leader, he's never employed anybody, never created a job. he's a nasty guy, no matter how you figure it.<u+201d> <u+2026> and cruz focused on trump: "if donald trump becomes president, the second amendment will be written out of the constitution because it is abundantly clear that donald trump is not a conservative. he will not invest the capital to confirm a conservative, so the result will be the same whether it<u+2019>s hillary, bernie or donald," cruz said. "the second amendment will go away." (elise viebeck) trump changed his explanation for why no one can find proof that he opposed the invasion of iraq before 2003: <u+201c>i wasn<u+2019>t a politician so people didn<u+2019>t write everything i said,<u+201d> he said on <u+201c>meet the press.<u+201d> in september, he said there was ample documentation: <u+201c>i<u+2019>ll give you 25 different stories.<u+201d> buzzfeed notes that an august 2004 interview with esquire is the first known instance of his public opposition. both candidates courted the african american vote at the same baptist church in las vegas. john wagner relays an incredibly awkward scene: <u+201c>clinton and her motorcade already had arrived the victory missionary baptist church, located in an economically struggling neighborhood west of the vegas strip, when sanders<u+2019>s entourage pulled in with a police escort. clinton was seated in the first row, on the left side. sanders took a seat in the first row, on the right side. the candidates did not shake hands or talk.<u+201d> later, clinton stepped up her attacks on sanders over health care in a vegas suburb: "we both share the goal of universal health-care coverage, but he wants to start all over again," she said at a rally after church. "and he wants to have a new system that would be quite challenging because you would have to give up the insurance you have now, and it would cost a lot of money. the goal is a good goal -- i absolutely agree with that -- but the last thing our country needs now is to be thrown into another contentious debate about health care." (david weigel) the review-journal<u+00a0>reports that sanders has spent twice as much on tv ads in nevada as clinton, $2.93 million to $1.46 million. trolling hrc, the conservative super pac american crossroads launched a $42,000 digital buy to highlight hardline comments she<u+2019>s made about illegal immigration during previous races. watch here. -- <u+201c>debate rips open gop wounds, and party risks tearing itself apart,<u+201d> by robert costa and philip rucker: <u+201c>the gop is at risk of tearing itself apart over its past as it heads into the thick of the primary season. a day after a debate marked by personal, petty exchanges, republicans were grappling with their core beliefs, as well as the image they were broadcasting to the country <u+2026> the increasingly harsh discussions of these and other issues amount to an existential crisis within the republican party and reflect the growing influence of non-ideological, populist voters. contenders are making their most concerted effort yet to stop trump [in south carolina], even though previous attempts to take him down have attained little. the escalating quarreling may increase the likelihood of a long, expensive and potentially futile effort <u+2026> as the candidates returned to the campaign trail, the mess they left behind on the stage of greenville<u+2019>s peace center had some party strategists wondering whether the damage may be politically irreparable.<u+201d> -- <u+201c>what made the friendship between scalia and ginsburg work,<u+201d> by irin carmon: <u+201c>nino and rbg, the court<u+2019>s most famous odd couple friendship stood as an example of warmth and professionalism across traditional divides <u+2026> the reserved clinton appointee and the bombastic reagan pick had vastly different views on the constitution and the role of the court. and yet. one former clerk told us scalia was ginsburg<u+2019>s favored souvenir shopping buddy when they traveled together. on a trip to india, they famously rode an elephant, with scalia sitting up front. they shared new year<u+2019>s eves with their families and friends. in 2010, when chief justice roberts announced [ginsburg<u+2019>s husband] marty<u+2019>s death from the bench, scalia wiped tears from his eyes <u+2026> whether or not it was how scalia saw it, for ginsburg their public friendship also made a statement about the court as an institution: that it was strengthened by respectful debate, that it could work no matter how polarized its members were.<u+201d> -- <u+201c>a mini world war rages in the fields of aleppo,<u+201d> by liz sly: <u+201c>across the olive groves and wheat fields of the northern syrian province of aleppo, a battle with global dimensions risks erupting into a wider war. russian warplanes are bombing from the sky. iraqi and lebanese militias aided by iranian advisers are advancing on the ground. an assortment of syrian rebels backed by the united states, turkey, saudi arabia and qatar are fighting to hold them back. kurdish forces are taking advantage of the chaos, [while] the islamic state has snatched a couple of small villages <u+2026> syria<u+2019>s civil war long ago mutated into a proxy conflict, with competing world powers backing the rival syrian factions almost since the earliest days of the armed rebellion against president bashar al-assad. but perhaps never before have the dangers <u+2014> or the complications <u+2014> of what amounts to a mini world war been so apparent as in the battle underway for control of aleppo.<u+201d> -- doug sosnik<u+2019>s take on the road ahead: the democratic strategist, who served as a close adviser to bill clinton during his presidency, is known in washington for insightful memos that diagnose the national mood. we got the latest one. three nuggets jumped out<u+2014> independents will see the 2016 election as a choice between the lesser of two evils: <u+201c>this year<u+2019>s republican primary is the most rightward leaning since 1964, while democrats have not been this far to the left since the 1972 campaign. as the parties have become increasingly ideological, americans have drifted away from both of them. self-identified independents are at near historic levels. <u+2026> in this period of profound alienation, with both parties engaging in harsh ideological primaries, the public is likely to view the entire political process as a race to the bottom. they will be inclined to view their choice for president through the prism of which candidate is the least flawed and poses the least threat to their future well-being.<u+201d> obama<u+2019>s approval rating is remarkably durable: <u+201c>since the summer of 2009, when these divisions began to intensify, obama<u+2019>s positive job approval ratings have remained flat, never going below 40% or above 53%. a closer look at these numbers shows the impact that age, race and income have had on his ratings. the narrow band reflects little movement from obama<u+2019>s core supporters, as well as steadfast opposition from his detractors.<u+201d> the democratic primary in new york will matter: <u+201c>in the period between the march primaries and the middle of april, fewer than 400 delegates will be selected. with the exception of the wisconsin primary on april 5th, most of the attention will be focused on the new york (wall street) primary on april 19th. the last two key dates during the primary will be april 26th, when five northeastern states will select 384 delegates, and june 7th when california and five other states west of the mississippi will hold elections.<u+201d> read sosnik<u+2019>s 5-page memo here. see his 25-slide powerpoint deck here. hillary and bernie were in las vegas: congressional democrats spent all day ripping republicans over the upcoming supreme court fight: comedian mindy kaling jokingly wished a happy valentine's day to one of the judges who could be on obama's short list: donald trump attacked the rnc for the donors at the debate: along with the obamas: along with plenty of lawmakers: others joked about a presidential race that seems like it will never end: -- <u+201c>revenge of the populists<u+201d> is the headline on the front page of the state to describe the success of trump and sanders. the columbia, s.c., newspaper searches for historical antecedents: <u+201c>trump rails against immigrants, echoing the nativist, mid-1800s know nothing party that grew out of fears that an influx of catholic immigrants was threatening the american way of life. sanders<u+2019> outcry against banks and corporations has its roots in the populist movement of the late 1800s, formed by a coalition of laborers and farmers, suffering, they said, under high loan and railroad rates that lined the elite<u+2019>s pockets.<u+201d> the article emphasizes similarities in their messaging and supporters: <u+201c>angst over the economy <u+2014> as in populist movements of the past <u+2014> has led to similar lines of attack from trump and sanders. <u+2018>this is not a rising-tide-that-lifts-all-boats recovery,<u+2019> said danielle vinson, a furman university political scientist. <u+2026> both trump and sanders, for instance, denounce trade deals <u+2026> both have taken more isolationist stances in foreign policy <u+2026> both also have cast washington politicians as shills for corporate interests.<u+201d> -- the state also looks at the 12 percent of south carolina voters who say they are undecided: <u+201c>retired oncologist tripp jones say his choice presents a dilemma in saturday<u+2019>s republican presidential primary. none of the six candidates left in the gop field fits the bill for jones, a longtime republican who <u+2018>wants somebody who is going to take america to the next level but has common sense.<u+2019> jones is among the 1-in-8 republicans who are undecided as saturday<u+2019>s primary looms. political ads do little for him. <u+2018>i<u+2019>ve got to settle on one, but i don<u+2019>t have a clue yet who it will be,<u+2019> he said. other voters plan to wait until the end. <u+2018>i<u+2019>m going to let it all play out,<u+2019> said irmo town councilwoman kathy condom, who plans to vote republican. <u+2018>i<u+2019>ll figure it out on the 19th (of february).<u+2019><u+201d> who they are --><u+00a0>politico, <u+201c>the whale that nearly drowned the donald,<u+201d> by michael crowley: <u+201c>akio kashiwagi was a mysterious figure reputed to have underworld connections. he was one of the world<u+2019>s top five gamblers, a <u+2018>whale<u+2019> in casino parlance, willing to wager $10 million in a single gaming bender. after his murder, one unnamed executive told the paper that kashiwagi had owed the trump plaza hotel and casino $4 million <u+2026> the story of kashiwagi, drawn from trump<u+2019>s memoirs and news accounts from the day, offers a revealing window into trump<u+2019>s instincts. it shows that trump isn<u+2019>t just a one-time casino owner<u+2014>he<u+2019>s also a gambler, prone to impulsive, even reckless action. trump is obsessed with winning, a topic he usually brings up in the context of his merciless deal-making style. but a crucial question about any would-be president who may be confronted with questions of war and peace is his attitude toward risk. some presidents are highly averse to it <u+2026> others roll the dice.<u+201d> -- the atlantic, <u+201c>the 'new look' of the post-obama electorate,<u+201d> by theodore r. johnson: <u+201c>in 2008, when then-senator barack obama rode the highest black voter turnout in u.s. history to the white house, black voters felt the look had been exchanged <u+2026> african american voters felt that a black president could give them special attention and understand black america<u+2019>s grievances better than any other. it wasn<u+2019>t favoritism african americans sought; they simply wanted an acknowledgement that structural racism is real and some executive resolve to address it from the first president to have experienced it firsthand. but things haven<u+2019>t gone quite as they had hoped. the welled-up hope that racism would be a presidential priority and undergo an incremental process of amelioration began to slowly dissipate in the face of politics as usual <u+2026> and frustration has given rise to a new generation of black voters and activists, a generation who uses more overt and dynamic techniques to influence the political agenda.<u+201d> --the new yorker, <u+201c>can cruz beat trump on conservative principles?,<u+201d> by ryan lizza: <u+201c>ted cruz is the best political tactician in the republican race. but for all of cruz<u+2019>s tactical successes so far, he made one enormous mistake: he misunderstood the threat posed by trump. by repeatedly praising trump throughout 2015, cruz did more than any other republican to validate the reality-tv star as a true conservative <u+2026> cruz, the most well-funded conservative, stuck to his hug-trump strategy until just a few days before the iowa caucuses. at the cbs debate, [he] tried desperately to undo that damage, and his attempt to unmask trump as a closet liberal led to the most fiery exchange of the evening. and now there is a new accelerant to the cruz<u+2013>bush campaign to turn trump into a liberal: antonin scalia<u+2019>s death. for many ideological conservatives, the makeup of the supreme court is the most important issue in america <u+2026> [and] the success of cruz<u+2019>s campaign may depend on that fight.<u+201d> -- new york times, <u+201c>a leisurely return for the new york state legislature,<u+201d> by jesse mckinley: <u+201c>last week, [new york<u+2019>s] 213 elected lawmakers <u+2014> or as many who were able to attend <u+2014> gathered for a couple of hours, passed a few minor bills and some well-meaning resolutions, and then formally adjourned for a 14-day winter break, officially ending their workweek. the time was 1:32 p.m. on a tuesday. two months after the corruption convictions of sheldon silver and dean g. skelos, the former leaders of the state assembly and senate <u+2026> that sense of urgency has seemingly dissipated, unable to penetrate the intractable culture of albany: the 2016 legislature has yet to offer any new bills related to ethics reform, and the leaders have been noncommittal on a raft of proposals made by gov. andrew m. cuomo. the state<u+2019>s lawmakers have responded with a leisurely return to well-established habits, marked by two-day weeks in the capital, six-minute floor sessions and a collection of one-house bills with little or no chance of becoming law.<u+201d> -- at the white house: president obama is still in california, where he'll meet with leaders from the association of southeast asian nations in rancho mirage throughout the day. -- on the campaign trail: bernie sanders is in ypsilanti and dearborn, mich., while john kasich stops in allendale, east lansing and utica. hillary clinton is in elko and reno, nevada. the rest of the field is in south carolina. here's the rundown: news you can use if you live in d.c.: -- i guess this is what they call a <u+201c>wintry mix<u+201d>? <u+201c>after an overnight burst, snow may be slow to get going early on, but should pick up by mid-morning,<u+201d> the capital weather gang forecasts. <u+201c>during the course of the afternoon, snow likely changes to sleet and freezing rain from south to north. temperatures remain below freezing keeping those untreated surfaces very slick. highs range from 25-30.<u+201d> intrigue: vince gray is running against the woman he anointed to succeed him on the d.c. council. <u+201c>his former protege insists she is not retreating,<u+201d> paul schwartzman reports. <u+201c>yvette alexander, in an interview, accused gray of challenging her as a first step toward a 2018 mayoral bid that would avenge his loss to muriel e. bowser in the 2014 democratic primary. <u+2018>he<u+2019>s just trying to get his foot in the door,<u+2019> alexander said. <u+2018>if vince gray is honest about it, he would tell the truth and say, <u+2018>i want to run for mayor. i want to get revenge.<u+2019> that<u+2019>s who he is, and ward 7 knows it.<u+2019>"<u+00a0>she also suggested that he didn<u+2019>t get indicted because he <u+201c>had a very good attorney.<u+201d><u+00a0>gray spokesman chuck thies fired back: <u+201c>vince doesn<u+2019>t feel that she has grown in the job. when you<u+2019>ve been there for eight years and you<u+2019>re not an influential council member, it<u+2019>s time for you to go. at this point, yvette is just taking up space. that<u+2019>s not vince<u+2019>s fault.<u+201d> -- a year-long study of alexandria's<u+00a0>historic buildings revealed that many need immediate <u+2013> and expensive-- renovations that could cost the city hundreds of millions. (patricia sullivan) --<u+00a0>prince william county supervisors have given up on<u+00a0>their efforts<u+00a0>to reduce concealed-carry permit fees after the measure failed in a recent vote. (jonathan hunley) -- parents in southeast washington have begun interviewing teachers for a new charter school, rocketship, which is set to open next year in ward 8. the d.c. public charter school board voted in 2013 to allow the california-based charter operator to open as many as eight schools in the district. (perry stein) bill clinton seemed to downplay obama's status as the first black president, saying "we're all mixed race people": in an old clip, elena kagan talks about hunting with scalia: campaign chairman<u+00a0>john podesta called this voter-generated video about hillary "awesome": watch a polar bear at the toronto zoo see snow for the first time!

the daily 202: why blocking obama<u+2019>s pick to replace scalia could cost republicans their senate majority

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if you had to sum up mitt romney's planned third bid for president in 2016 in a single slogan (and why wouldn't you?), it would be: mitt romney 3.0 -- now with more mormon! here's the washington post's phil rucker on that point: if he runs again in 2016, romney is determined to rebrand himself as authentic, warts and all, and central to that mission is making public what for so long he kept private. he<u+00a0>rarely discussed<u+00a0>his religious beliefs and practices in his failed 2008 and 2012 races, often confronting suspicion and bigotry with silence as his political consultants urged him to play down his mormonism. now, romney speaks openly about his service as a lay pastor in the mormon church, recites scripture to audiences, muses about salvation and the prophet, urges students to marry young and <u+201c><u+00a0>have a quiver full of kids,<u+201d> and even<u+00a0>cracks jokes<u+00a0>about joseph smith<u+2019>s polygamy. i get romney's decision. <u+00a0>i was one of the people who thought he should talk more about his faith in the 2012<u+00a0>general election campaign as a way to counter the perception being pushed by the obama campaign that he was a flip-flopping plutocrat with no core beliefs. his mormon faith has always been central to romney's private persona so if the goal is to run the "real romney" this time, then it's the right move. that said, there's plenty of reasons to believe that a forward-facing of his mormonism might have less-than-ideal political consequences for romney -- particularly among a republican primary electorate. after romney's 2008 defeat in the iowa caucuses during the republican primary -- at the hands of former arkansas governor mike huckabee, an evangelical and minister -- there was lots of grumbling from romneyworld that the main reason their guy came up short was his faith. <u+00a0>iowans -- and especially those who considered themselves "born again" or evangelical -- were deeply skeptical of romney's mormonism and the mormon faith more generally. many believed it wasn't a christian faith and, when being candid, considered it a quasi-cult. four years later, even as romney was on his way to becoming the nominee, that skepticism among evangelicals was readily apparent. romney lost every primary in 2012 in which exit polls found evangelical christians comprised a majority of voters. in south carolina, evangelicals were the decisive vote; they went for former house speaker newt gingrich by 22 points over romney. <u+00a0>across all primary contests in 2012, romney did 13 percentage points worse among evangelical christians than non-evangelicals. (is it possible that evangelicals were reacting to something other than romney's mormon faith when they voted for other candidates? sure. but, it seems very unlikely.) and, there's little evidence that romney's past presidential bids have had much effect on how white evangelicals view mormonism generally. <u+00a0>this chart comes courtesy of a december 2012 pew poll: white evangelicals are roughly divided on whether mormonism is a christian religion and are significantly more skeptical of that fact than the public at large. and remember that 57 percent of iowa caucus-goers in 2012 identified as "born again/evangelical" while 65 percent of south carolina primary voters said the same. i've always believed that romney's mormonism -- along with his wealth -- was something that made him seem "other" to the average republican primary voter. <u+00a0>less than two percent of americans, by most estimates, are mormon. that number is far lower in places such as iowa or south carolina. many republican primary voters don't know anyone who is a mormon or anyone who even knows a mormon. it's a barrier to familiarity -- whether it should be or not. and, in states such as iowa and south carolina that are not only heavily evangelical but also demand retail politicking, any barrier like that is a big one. none of the above should sway romney from more publicly embracing his religion in this campaign (if there is a campaign for him). the best thing you can be in politics is yourself. but a "damn the torpedoes" approach by romney on his mormonism has to come with this expectation too: there are torpedoes out there.

mitt romney still has a mormon problem

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russian warplanes began bombarding syrian opposition targets in the war-torn nation's north wednesday, following a terse meeting at which a russian general asked pentagon officials to clear out of syrian air space and was rebuffed, fox news has learned. a u.s. official said russian airstrikes targeted fighters in the vicinity of homs, located roughly 60 miles east of a russian naval facility in tartus, and were carried out by a "couple" of russian bombers. the strikes hit targets in homs and hama, but there is no presence of isis in those areas, a senior u.s. defense official said. these planes are hitting areas where free syrian army and other anti-assad groups are located, the official said. activists and a rebel commander on the ground said the russian airstrikes have mostly hit moderate rebel positions and civilians. in a video released by the u.s.-backed rebel group tajamu alezzah, jets are seen hitting a building claimed to be a location of the group in the town of latamna in the central hama province. the group commander jameel al-saleh told a local syrian news website that the group's location was hit by russian jets but didn't specify the damage. a group of local activists in the town of talbiseh in homs province recorded at least 16 civilians killed, including two children. according to a u.s. senior official, presidents obama and putin agreed on a process to "deconflict" military operations. the russians on wednesday "bypassed that process," the official said. "that's not how responsible nations do business," the official said. the development came after pentagon officials, in a development first reported by fox news, brushed aside an official request, or "demarche," from russia to clear air space over northern syria, where moscow said it intended to conduct airstrikes against isis on behalf of assad, according to sources who spoke to fox news. the request was made in a heated discussion between a russian three-star general and u.s. officials at the american embassy in baghdad, sources said. "if you have forces in the area we request they leave," said the general, who used the word "please" in the contentious encounter. a senior pentagon official said the u.s., which also has been conducting airstrikes against isis, but does not support assad, said the request was not honored. "we still conducted our normal strike operations in syria today," the official said. "we did not and have not changed our operations." state department spokesman john kirby told reporters the russian airstrikes won't change the strategy of the u.s.-led coalition. "the u.s.-led coalition will continue to fly missions over iraq and syria as planned and in support of our international mission to degrade and destroy isil," kirby told reporters, while acknowledging the meeting at the american embassy in baghdad. russia's foreign minister sergey lavrov told foreign ministers of world powers wednesday that his country is "ready to forge standing channels of communication to ensure a maximally effective fight against terrorist groups." lavrov spoke to the u.n. security council shortly after russia's defense ministry announced its jets are carrying out airstrikes on islamic state group positions in syria. lavrov said russia would shortly circulate a draft council resolution to promote joint efforts against groups like the islamic state. the move by moscow marks a major escalation in ongoing tensions between the two countries over military action in the war-torn country and comes moments after russian lawmakers formally approved a request from putin to authorize the use of troops in syria. putin said previously that russia would strike isis targets. the federation council, the upper house of russia's parliament, discussed putin's request for the authorization behind the closed doors. sergei ivanov, chief of putin's administration, said in televised remarks that the parliament voted unanimously to approve the request. ivanov said the authorization is necessary "not in order to achieve some foreign policy goals" but "in order to defend russia's national interests." putin is obligated to request parliamentary approval for any use of russian troops abroad, according to the russian constitution. the last time he did so was before russia annexed ukraine's crimean peninsula in march 2014. putin's request comes after his bilateral meeting with obama on the sidelines of the united nations general assembly meeting in new york, where the two were discussing russia's recent military buildup in syria. a u.s. official told fox news monday the two leaders agreed to discuss political transition in syria but were at odds over the role that assad should play in resolving the civil conflict. the official said obama reiterated to putin that he does not believe there is a path to stability in syria with assad in power. putin has said the world needs to support assad because his military has the best chance to defeat isis militants. putin said the meeting, which lasted slightly more than 90 minutes, was <u+201c>very constructive, business-like and frank". "we are thinking about it, and we don't exclude anything," putin told reporters at the time the kremlin reported that putin hosted a meeting of the russian security council at his residence tuesday night outside of moscow, saying that they were discussing terrorism and extremism. on tuesday, french foreign minister laurent fabius called on russia to make a real contribution to the fight against isis, telling reporters at the united nations that moscow "is against the terrorists, it's not abnormal to launch strikes against them." "the international community has hit (isis). france has hit (isis), assad very little, and the russians not at all. so one has to look at who does what," fabius added. russia has been a staunch supporter of assad during syria's bloody civil war, and multiple reports have previously indicated that russian troops are aiding assad's forces. israel's defense minister also said earlier this month that russian troops are in syria to help assad fight the isis terror group. on wednesday, reuters reported that russia's foreign ministry told the news agency interfax that a recently established operations center in baghdad would help coordinate airstrikes and ground troops in syria. fox news first reported last week that the center had been set up by russian, syrian and iranian military commanders with the goal of working with iranian-backed shia militias fighting isis. over the weekend, the iraqi government announced that it would begin sharing "security and intelligence" information with russia, syria and iran to help combat isis. meanwhile, intelligence sources told fox news friday that iranian quds force commander qasem soleimani met with russian military commanders in baghdad sept. 22. fox news reported earlier this month that soleimani met putin in moscow over the summer to discuss a joint military plan in syria. "the russians are no longer advising, but co-leading the war in syria," one intelligence official said at the time. the associated press contributed to this report.

russia launches airstrikes in northern syria, senior military official says

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the next republican presidential debate is tonight in<u+00a0>manchester, new hampshire, and will air on abc. the network has said that coverage of the debate will begin at 8 pm eastern, though it is not clear if the debate will begin right then or a bit afterward. you'll be able to view a live stream online at abcnews.go.com. after skipping out on the last gop debate <u+2014> and losing the iowa caucuses <u+2014> donald trump has announced that he will show up this time. he'll be joined by<u+00a0>iowa winner ted cruz and iowa "media winner" marco rubio, whose unexpectedly competitive performance in the caucuses has bolstered his prospects for winning the nomination in the eyes of political elites. ben carson, who finished a weak fourth in iowa and whose candidacy has been in decline for months, will also be in attendance, though his campaign seems like it might not be going for too much longer. watch: ted cruz trolls donald trump in opening remarks of last republican debate then there are three other candidates <u+2014> jeb bush, john kasich, and chris christie <u+2014> who are desperately hoping for a strong performance in tuesday's new hampshire primary to keep them in the race. bush, kasich, and christie, who are all establishment-friendly candidates, are all considered rivals to rubio, who did far better than them in iowa. so expect them to make a last attempt at taking rubio down at tonight's debate. conversely, the debate gives rubio a big opportunity to outshine those establishment rivals right before the new hampshire primary. if rubio outperforms bush, kasich, and christie in the granite state too, they'll all likely drop out of the race soon <u+2014> clearing the way for rubio to be the mainstream republican alternative to trump and cruz. if rubio stumbles in new hampshire, though, the race could remain muddled for a bit longer. since the gop field has shrunk, there will be no undercard debate for candidates who aren't polling as well this time around. but, much to her disappointment, carly fiorina missed abc's polling cutoff to qualify for this debate <u+2014> she and former virginia governor jim gilmore are the two remaining candidates who will be left out. where: st. anselm's college institute of politics, manchester, new hampshire

how to watch tonight's republican debate

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secretary of state john kerry said saturday that world leaders have made progress toward ending the civil war in syria, where the chaos has allowed the islamic state, the terror group responsible for the paris terror attacks, to flourish. kerry and the other world leaders in vienna agreed on a timeline for a political transition in syria that is aimed at ending the country's civil war. however, key details, including the status of syrian president bashar assad and a determination of which opposition groups are terrorists, remain unresolved. <u+201c>we do not agree on all of the issues,<u+201d> kerry said. <u+201c>but we do agree on this: it<u+2019>s time for the bleeding to stop. <u+2026> it<u+2019>s time not to allow terrorists a single kilometer.<u+201d> the united states has tried for years to end the assad regime, which has been accused of using chemical weapons on civilians and other crimes against humanity, while russia has support assad. moscow in recent weeks has openly launched air strikes against government-opposition forces in syria. kerry announced agreement on a jan. 1 date for the start of talks between assad's government and the opposition. the u.n. special envoy for syria, staffan de mistura, is to begin immediate work on determining who should sit at the table. within six months, the negotiations between the syrian sides are to establish "credible, inclusive and nonsectarian" transitional government that would set a schedule for drafting a new constitution, according to a joint statement released by the united nations on behalf of the 19 parties to the talks. a free and fair u.n.-supervised election would then be held within 18 months, according to the statement. the diplomats agreed on a means to enforce a cease-fire but failed to agree on which groups other than the islamic state and al qaeda affiliates would not be eligible for the truce. under those terms, the sponsors of each group covered by the cease-fire would be responsible for making sure that group upholds it. russian foreign minister sergey lavrov said jordan would oversee a process that would identify which groups should be considered for identification as terrorists. that process is to be completed by the time the political process between the government and opposition begins in january. kerry acknowledged that participants also failed to agree on assad's role in the transition or his potential future role in the country's government. the united states and its allies have said the war cannot end while assad is in power but russia and iran have insisted that syrians must decide their own leadership. the participants also agreed to meet before the end of the year in paris to go over progress made toward the cease-fire and the selection of delegations for the political talks. saturday's meeting was overshadowed by the terrorist shootings and bombings in paris that killed more than 120 people, and syria as a breeding ground for terrorism moved to the foreground of the talks as participants linked the shooting and bombing attacks in paris to mideast turmoil and the opportunities it gives for terror. kerry and lavrov both condemned the attacks as they began meetings with senior representatives from iran, saudi arabia and other countries with strongly conflicting views on how to end the more than four-year war. secretary-general ban ki-moon urged ministers "to move beyond their differences on syria" and work on a negotiated end to the war. more than 250,000 people have been killed in the syrian war. eleven million have been uprooted from their homes. the conflict has allowed islamic state militants to carve out significant parts of syria and iraq for their would-be caliphate. europe and syria's neighbors, meanwhile, are struggling to cope with the worst migrant crisis since world war ii. the associated press contributed to this report.

kerry: world leaders take step to end syria war and spreading terror concerns, but disagreements persist

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president obama has long been a friend of organized labor, wholeheartedly supported by unions that helped boost him to victory in both his presidential campaigns.but increasingly, there now is a divide between unions in the public and private sector when it comes to supporting him. according to james sherk, a labor policy analyst with the heritage foundation, government employee unions want "bigger and more expensive government," in contrast to private sector unions. sherk added those private groups are "pushing back" and speaking out more publicly about things like the keystone xl pipeline, which they believe will benefit their members. that has put them on a collision course with obama, who last summer proclaimed, "we should do everything we can to strengthen unions in this country." "the president's insistence on vetoing this pipeline is directly taking away income from these union members, and they, understandably, don't like it," sherk said. congress has passed a measure to expedite the keystone project, although obama has vowed to veto it. just days ago, sean mcgarvey, president of north america's building trades unions, made a direct appeal. "we urge the president of the united states to put our men and women back to work across the length of this pipeline as soon as possible," mcgarvey said, adding, "we urge the president to sign the bill." union leaders also have a long-standing beef with the administration over the affordable care act's enormous tax on so-called cadillac health insurance plans.the plans offer high dollar benefits and are used as a recruiting tool. although the tax doesn't kick in for several more years, as far back as 2013 union leaders were making public pleas to democratic lawmakers. in a letter written in july of that year, union officials, including james hoffa, president of the international brotherhood of teamsters, urged congressional democrats to drop the tax saying, "we voted for you.we have a problem; you need to fix it." analysts say the issue may present an opportunity for gop leaders to build some good will with unions. just days ago, rep. frank guinta, r-n.h., introduced a measure he's calling "ax the tax."a similar measure didn't get far in the senate last year, but may have a better chance with the gop now in control of both the house and senate.

are private unions cooling toward democrats?

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in texas, alabama and elsewhere a number of clerks and judges who stated their opposition to gay marriage have thrown up roadblocks to the unions, extending the fight over same-sex weddings two months after the u.s. supreme court legalized gay marriage. galvanizing opponents of gay marriage, kim davis, a county clerk in rural kentucky, this week was jailed for her refusal to issue marriage licenses on the basis that same-sex unions conflict with her christian beliefs. others with the power to issue marriage licenses say they would be willing to follow suit, including alabama probate judge nick williams. "absolutely, i feel the same way. this is a cause worth standing up for," said williams, who ordered his deputies in washington county not to issue any licenses at all since the court's june decision. the fight has made davis a martyr-like figure for religious conservatives who argue she is being jailed for her religious beliefs, a view espoused by several republican presidential candidates. but for legal experts and gay marriage advocates, the issue is clear. gay marriage is the law of the land and public servants are bound to uphold the decision of the justices. "in this big country, it's not surprising that there have been a handful of isolated instances of acting out and foot-dragging," said evan wolfson, founder and president of freedom to marry, a same-sex marriage advocate. the american civil liberties union, which filed suit against davis, said it knows of only two counties in texas that have not confirmed whether they will issue same-sex marriage licenses. "we are not going to discuss marriage policy over the phone. if a couple comes in to apply, we will discuss it at that time," said molly criner, a clerk in irion county, which has about 1,600 people located 200 miles (320 km) northwest of austin. criner is one of several public officials with the power to issue marriage licenses who stands against gay marriage for religious grounds, and has yet to face a challenge. in irion county, no same-sex couples have applied and no same-sex licenses have been issued. "to keep my oath to uphold the constitution, i must reject this ruling that i believe is lawless," she was quoted as saying by liberty counsel, a florida-based christian religious advocacy organization that said it would back her legally. the group, which also supports davis, said it represents other county clerks who have yet to face challenges. it is not naming them. "we have been contacted by other clerks in kentucky. we've been contacted by other clerks in other parts of the country," said liberty counsel founder mathew staver, the attorney for kim davis. the fight has not been isolated to socially conservative southern states, all of which had bans on same-sex marriage. in left-leaning oregon, marion county circuit court judge vance day is facing an ethics review over his refusal to perform same-sex marriages. on thursday, the oregon government ethics commission approved day's request to set up a legal expense trust fund to raise money for his defense. "i'm the elected probate judge and that's my decision. thank you," said alabama's geneva county probate judge fred hamic, before hanging up his phone. that interpretation in alabama largely took hold after u.s. district judge callie granade, of the southern district of alabama, overturned the state's ban on same-sex marriage in january. the association of county commissions of alabama in montgomery said that up to 12 counties are not issuing any marriage licenses. that includes washington county, where williams, the probate judge, said he spoke with davis for 10 minutes the day before she was ordered into custody. "i asked her if she was prepared for whichever the way the judge ruled and she said yes. she was very much at peace," said williams. the fight could also return to kentucky. casey davis, who is no relation to kim davis, serves as the clerk for casey county, which is not issuing any marriage licenses. attempts to reach casey davis were unsuccessful. whitley county, kentucky clerk kay schwartz did not respond to repeated calls and on friday was on vacation. her office previously said they were issuing traditional marriage licenses for men and women, but no one had asked for a same-sex license. in the end, all counties will be issuing the licenses because it is the law of the land, said wolfson of freedom to marry. "and this sideshow will soon be over," he said.

gay marriage fight in kentucky likely not the last battleground

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as he tries to recover from a series of stumbles ahead of an important primary contest next week in wisconsin, republican presidential front-runner donald trump made a surprise appearance in washington on thursday and presented himself as the presumptive leader of his party. he met with his foreign policy advisers, huddled with republican national committee chairman reince priebus and predicted that he would bring harmony to the fractured gop. <u+201c>looking forward to bringing the party together <u+2014> and it will happen!<u+201d> trump wrote on twitter shortly after his rnc meeting. when asked about the meeting during an interview with fox news, trump called the party officials <u+201c>very good people.<u+201d> two days earlier, trump had backed away from an earlier party loyalty pledge and complained about being treated <u+201c>very badly<u+201d> by the gop. he called thursday<u+2019>s session a<u+00a0><u+201c>terrific meeting<u+201d> and a <u+201c>unity meeting,<u+201d> according to a transcript of<u+00a0>the<u+00a0>interview. trump<u+2019>s washington visit came as his efforts to secure the nomination have encountered growing turbulence and the gop remains in disarray. anti-trump forces in the party are frantically maneuvering to defeat the new york billionaire in tuesday<u+2019>s wisconsin primary, which is shaping up as a crucial moment in the battle for the gop nomination. a trump loss to rival sen. ted cruz of texas would increase the likelihood of a contested convention in july, which trump critics hope could ultimately deny him the nomination. if he loses wisconsin, <u+201c>he would have to completely run the table [in the remaining contests], and i don<u+2019>t think that<u+2019>s going to happen,<u+201d> said katie packer, director of our principles pac, an anti-trump group. she was referring to what would be necessary to get the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination on the first ballot. until recent days, trump appeared to be gaining strength against his gop opponents, amassing delegates, rising in the polls and continuing to draw large crowds to his rallies. but new controversies <u+2014> including a battery charge against his campaign manager for roughing up a reporter and trump<u+2019>s statement this week that women who receive illegal abortions should be punished <u+2014> threatened to thwart his momentum. the party also appeared to be fraying beyond repair, with trump, cruz and the third remaining presidential candidate, gov. john kasich of ohio, all backing away this week from their pledges to support the eventual gop nominee. a wisconsin poll released on wednesday suggested trouble was brewing in that state for trump. the survey, by marquette law school, said that cruz had surged to 40 percent support among likely voters, up 21 points since february <u+2014> enough to give him a 10-point lead over trump. wisconsin should be favorable terrain for trump. the state is home to a large contingent of republican voters without college degrees, a demographic that has backed him. forty-two delegates are at stake in tuesday<u+2019>s primary, allocated in a hybrid system based on victories in congressional districts and the statewide vote. much of wisconsin<u+2019>s republican establishment, led by gov. scott walker, a onetime presidential candidate, has rallied around cruz as the best hope of defeating trump. in an interview thursday, walker pointed to the support cruz has been receiving from the state<u+2019>s popular conservative radio talk show hosts as a key factor in giving the texas senator the ability to compete against trump. walker said cruz is the only candidate who can clear the primary and also win the general election. <u+201c>arguably, there are two candidates who can mathematically win the nomination,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>there are two candidates who have a shot at beating hillary clinton. ted cruz is the only one in both categories.<u+201d> the impact of the radio hosts came into clear view during a sweep of trump interviews earlier this week. trump struggled in responding to avowed anti-trump radio host charlie sykes, who has enormous influence among conservatives in the state. sykes hammered the candidate on the tone of the campaign, homing in on trump<u+2019>s recent feud with cruz, during which trump ignited accusations of misogyny after he reposted an unflattering image of cruz<u+2019>s wife, heidi. <u+201c>i expect that from a 12-year-old bully on the playground, not somebody who wants the office held by abraham lincoln,<u+201d> sykes said. in his appearances this week in wisconsin, trump irritated some conservatives by seeming to mock two of the state<u+2019>s favorite sons, walker and house speaker paul d. ryan. his harshest comments came during an appearance in janesville, ryan<u+2019>s hometown. trump dismissed walker<u+2019>s support for cruz and poked fun at the governor<u+2019>s obsession with harley-davidson motorcycles. <u+201c>the motorcycle guys like trump,<u+201d> trump said. <u+201c>and he doesn<u+2019>t look like a motorcycle guy to me, i<u+2019>m sorry.<u+201d> when trump asked attendees how they liked ryan, <u+201c>your new speaker,<u+201d> the crowd responded with boos and jeers. a loss in wisconsin would not necessarily affect the outcomes of future states. the next big contest is trump<u+2019>s home state of new york, where he is favored to win. a string of primaries in east coast states in april could pad his delegate lead. the next midwest contest, in indiana, is not until may 3. still, trump made clear during his janesville rally this week that he does not intend to lose. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m not going to let anything happen in wisconsin,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>we have to win. look, we have to put these politicians in their place, folks.<u+201d> dan balz, scott clement and dave weigel contributed to this report.

after stumbles, trump seeks to avert damaging loss in wisconsin

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a verdict in 2017 could have sweeping consequences for tech startups.

bush and romney: ready to rumble?

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the election in 232 photos, 43 numbers and 131 quotes, from the two candidates at the center of it all.

liberals poised to give obama a win on iran

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the gop-led senate is expected to vote next week on legislation that keeps the department of homeland security fully operational through february, but parts of the bill that attempt to reverse president obama<u+2019>s immigration policy set up a major showdown with democrats. the expected political battle started before republicans took control of the upper chamber, when the parties agreed on a temporary spending bill that essentially funded the entire federal government through the fiscal year, with the exception of the homeland security department. it was a defiant move by the gop-led house, in response to obama<u+2019>s recent executive actions on illegal immigration, which democrats accepted as part of the larger budget deal and that also included significant compromises on both sides. the house has already passed the bill, which will keep the department fully operational past feb. 27. but passage in the senate will be more difficult, with democrats vowing strong opposition and republicans unlikely to not get the 60 votes needed to overcome the democrats<u+2019> filibuster. obama and fellow party members also have urged republicans to pass a funding bill for the agency <u+201c>clean<u+201d> of any language attempting to roll back the executive actions. and the president has also threatened to veto such legislation. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell has indicated the first vote on the house bill will be tuesday. but whether the kentucky republican allows amendments, like he did with the keystone xl pipeline legislation, remains unclear. <u+2018>it<u+2019>s a debate that will challenge our colleagues on the other side with a simple proposition: do they think presidents of either party should have the power to simply ignore laws that they don<u+2019>t like?<u+201d> mcconnell, r-ky., said on the senate floor. <u+201c>will our democratic colleagues work with us to defend key democratic ideals like separation of powers and the rule of law? <u+2026> the house bill does two things -- funds the department of homeland security and reigns in executive overreach. that<u+2019>s it. it<u+2019>s that simple.<u+201d> the house-passed bill provides $39.7 billion to finance the department through the rest of the budget year for counterterrorism, cybersecurity and other priorities at a time when attacks in paris and elsewhere are fresh in the public's mind. unaffected by the measure is additional money the agency receives from fees. as passed in the house, the legislation would also reverse obama's decision last fall to provide temporary deportation relief and work permits to an estimated 4 million immigrants in the country illegally, mostly people who have children who are citizens or legal permanent residents. the bill also would eliminate a 2012 directive that has granted work permits and stays of deportation to more than 600,000 immigrants who arrived illegally in the u.s. under the age of 16. the congressional budget office estimates that the measure would increase the federal deficit by $7.5 billion over a decade. the associated press contributed to this report.

veto, filibuster threats ahead of vote next week to fund homeland security, roll back executive actions

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with slovenia behind them and austria just ahead, the asylum seekers shoved at the metal barriers blocking their path and chanted a plea into the smoky night air: <u+201c>we want to go!<u+201d> nearly 1,000 people had been waiting all day for the border crossing to open, penned into a no-man<u+2019>s land by twitchy troops armed with pistols and assault rifles who met requests for food or water with stern commands and glares icy enough to match the fast-falling temperature. <u+201c>we<u+2019>ve already spent two nights outside,<u+201d> said galia ali, pointing to her severely disabled 8-year-old son, who lay shivering on a blanket near a dwindling fire. <u+201c>if we<u+2019>re still here in the morning, he<u+2019>ll be dead.<u+201d> [as human flood continues, germany slaps controls on border with austria] hours later, the barriers were lifted, and the migrants surged into austria. but up and down the route being traveled by a historic number of migrants this year as they seek new lives in europe, pressure is building to close the continent<u+2019>s cherished open borders for good. hungary already has proved that it can largely insulate itself from the refugee crisis by deploying razor wire and threatening lengthy prison sentences for anyone who dares cross it. the country<u+2019>s moves have shifted the burden of the refugee crisis to its neighbors <u+2014> and are now tempting leaders in those nations to build their own fences. the u.n. refugee agency said monday that a record 218,394 people crossed the mediterranean to reach european shores in october <u+2014> about as many as the total from all of last year. as the numbers rise, officials in countries across central and southeastern europe are eyeing one another nervously, fearing that a sudden closure of any one border could unleash a domino effect across the region that would leave tens of thousands of people stranded and angry, far from their intended destinations in the continent<u+2019>s north. the result would be chaos and violence, said croatian interior minister ranko ostojic, who has coordinated his country<u+2019>s response as more than 300,000 people have crossed through the small coastal nation since mid-september <u+2014> including 8,400 on sunday alone. <u+201c>you really think you can stop these people without shooting?<u+201d> ostojic said. <u+201c>you<u+2019>d have to build a wall around europe if you really wanted to stop these kinds of flows.<u+201d> rather than try to impede the movement of migrants, croatia has sought to speed it up, arranging trains to ferry people from the serbian border in the east to the slovenian border in the west. but the country<u+2019>s right-wing opposition, which is a slight favorite to win national elections sunday, has proposed a different solution: a fence. slovenia has said it is considering a fence of its own. foreign minister karl erjavec described that action as <u+201c>a last resort<u+201d> but added that he is <u+201c>very much concerned<u+201d> that other countries will erect barriers, leaving his tiny alpine nation shouldering an unsustainable burden. even now, he said, slovenia is struggling to cope. <u+201c>we cannot go on like this for a long time,<u+201d> erjavec said in an e-mailed response to questions. <u+201c>we have received more than 100,000 migrants in just two weeks. this number represents 5% of our population. our human, financial and material resources are limited.<u+201d> farther up the trail, austrian officials said last week that they are planning barriers to better regulate the movement of migrants coming across from slovenia. they quickly clarified that they have no intention of closing the border. but they also have said they will not be able to leave it open if germany <u+2014> the next stop after austria and for many asylum seekers the final destination <u+2014> decides it can no longer handle an influx that brought more than a half-million asylum seekers to the country during the first nine months of the year. as her poll numbers fall, calls are growing for chancellor angela merkel to do exactly that. <u+201c>everyone is afraid of the moment when germany decides it has had enough,<u+201d> said igor tabak, a croatian security analyst for the web site obris.org. the closure of borders, tabak said, would not only undermine the principle of free movement at the heart of europe<u+2019>s post-cold war identity, but it also could be deeply destabilizing in the balkans, where countries that were in conflict with one another less than a generation ago are being forced to cooperate on the biggest challenge to confront the european union in decades. slovenia, croatia and serbia have spent weeks trading accusations of mishandling the crisis. should a right-wing croatian government opt to close the border with serbia, tabak said, the flow would probably shift to bosnia, an ethnically divided nation that has struggled to hang together since its blood-soaked birth. <u+201c>if you have an influx of a large number of migrants into such a fragile system, it<u+2019>s easy to imagine the local institutions crumbling in bosnia,<u+201d> tabak said. ostojic, the croatian interior minister, said coordination among the regional rivals has improved after an emergency meeting of balkan nations in brussels late last month. in recent days, trains have begun to speed migrants through the region as part of a trial program that is expected to be fully rolled out this week. the system replaces one that officials acknowledge was woefully unsuited to the scale of the crisis. in the first two weeks after hungary closed its border with croatia, forcing migrants to reroute through slovenia, thousands of people slept in the open each night as rain poured and temperatures plummeted. slovenia accused croatia of sending migrants streaming across the border without warning. croatia charged that slovenia had failed to ready itself <u+2014> a point that some slovenian officials now concede. <u+201c>nobody had foreseen what was going to happen. the country was not prepared,<u+201d> said ivan molan, mayor of brezice, a handsome slovenian town of red-tiled roofs and quiet lanes that has borne the brunt of the crisis. molan said the new system of moving asylum seekers across borders by train could help to normalize life in a place where up to 10,000 people had been trekking each day through farmers<u+2019> fields and driving away the tourists who normally flock to brezice for a dip at its thermal spas. but he fears that the austrians will close their border, trapping frustrated migrants in slovenia. the country, like others in the balkans, has no recent history of welcoming refugees from outside the region and has little to offer them. <u+201c>if that happens, this part of slovenia will descend into a real crisis,<u+201d> molan said. at the other end of the country <u+2014> a mere 75 miles to the north <u+2014> refugees who were awaiting the chance to walk into austria said they were desperate to leave a place that had brought them only grief. <u+201c>i didn<u+2019>t even know slovenia existed before i came here,<u+201d> said sozdar el-hassan, a 24-year-old from damascus who stood pressed against an iron barricade while clutching her 22-month-old daughter. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s the smallest country, but it gave us the most problems.<u+201d> on a journey that has become a race to beat both winter weather and the prospect of closed borders, slovenia had badly stalled her family<u+2019>s progress: they had crossed through five countries in four days, but slovenia alone took another four. one night, they slept outside in the mud, with no blankets. for two days, they were housed in a crowded and filthy tent, with heavily armed police barring the exits. hassan said they were forbidden to leave the tent to visit family members or even to use the toilet. <u+201c>i asked one of the police, <u+2018>are we prisoners here?<u+2019> and he responded, <u+2018>for this moment, you<u+2019>re prisoners,<u+2019><u+2009><u+201d> said hassan, a cheery and bright-eyed woman who said she learned english by watching tom hanks movies. <u+201c>it was devastating.<u+201d> hassan said she dreams of studying accounting in germany after her education was cut short by the war in syria. but as she stood in the cold and rain waiting for the border to be opened, her exhausted daughter screaming in her arms, she conceded that she would settle for falling a little bit short. <u+201c>at least i want to get to austria,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>i just don<u+2019>t want to stay here.<u+201d> karla adam in london contributed to this report. european railways become ground zero for the migrant crisis black route: one family<u+2019>s journey from aleppo to austria new u.n. report says world<u+2019>s refugee crisis is worse than anyone expected read the post<u+2019>s coverage on the global surge in migration

along the migrant trail, pressure grows to close europe<u+2019>s open borders

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senate republicans<u+00a0>are rejecting renewed calls<u+00a0>by democrats and a retired supreme court justice to expedite closing guantanamo bay, saying they fear released detainees could pose a security threat.

republicans reject calls on guantanamo bay closure

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president obama announced thursday he will keep 5,500 u.s. troops in afghanistan beyond 2016, in a stark reversal from earlier pledges to end the war on his watch -- though republicans still questioned whether the residual force will be enough to support afghan forces and u.s. allies. the decision follows months of appeals from military leaders to extend the drawdown timeline. and it marks an acknowledgement that, despite claims al qaeda is on the run, militants continue to pose a serious threat to the country. obama originally had planned to pull out all but a small, embassy-based u.s. military presence by the end of next year. but military leaders argued the afghans needed additional assistance and support from the u.s. to beat back a resurgent taliban and hold onto gains made over the last 14 years. under the new plan, the administration will keep the current force of 9,800 troops in afghanistan through most of next year, then draw down to 5,500 troops in 2017, at a pace still to be determined by commanders. "while america's combat mission in afghanistan may be over, our commitment to afghanistan and its people endures," obama said at the white house, in announcing his decision. the president stressed that he does "not support the idea of endless war," but said afghan forces are "not as strong as they need to be" and the taliban have "made gains," leading to a "very fragile" security situation in key areas of the country. he called the new plan the "best possibility for lasting progress in afghanistan," while saying the u.s. mission "will not change" even after 2016. concerns about afghan security were reinforced when taliban fighters took control of kunduz late last month, prompting a protracted battle with afghan forces on the ground, supported by u.s. airstrikes. during the fighting, a u.s. airstrike hit a hospital, killing 22 people, including 12 doctors without borders staff and 10 patients. u.s. commanders have also expressed concern about islamic state fighters moving into the country and gaining recruits from within the taliban. and on another front, the u.s. military launched a major operation against two al qaeda camps in kandahar earlier this month; one of the camps reportedly was almost 30 square miles. the operation included dozens of airstrikes. republicans welcomed obama's decision thursday to keep more troops in the country to deal with these threats -- but questioned whether 5,500 troops would be enough. "i am pleased that president obama has decided to keep u.s. troops in afghanistan to perform the right missions beyond 2016, both in and outside of kabul," sen. john mccain, r-ariz., chairman of the senate armed services committee, said in a statement. "however, i am concerned that the number of troops will not be sufficient to perform the critical tasks being set for them: counterterrorism and continuing to train and advise our afghan partners. ... "the bottom line is that 5,500 troops will only be adequate to conduct either the counterterrorism or the train and advise mission, but not both. our military commanders have said that both are critical to prevent afghanistan from spiraling into chaos." rep. peter king, r-n.y., told fox news there was "no way" afghan forces could have tackled the taliban if all u.s. forces withdrew. "this was a disaster waiting to happen," he said.<u+00a0>but he called the president's compromise plan a "containment" strategy and questioned whether the "small number" would be enough. "while this new plan avoids a disaster, it is certainly not a plan for success," rep. mac thornberry, r-texas, chairman of the house armed services committee, said in a statement. he also criticized the president for threatening to veto defense legislation "that provides their pay, benefits, and the authorities they need to get the job done" -- in reference to an ongoing dispute over a defense authorization bill that would bust budget caps. u.s. officials have been hinting at the policy shift for weeks, noting that conditions on the ground in afghanistan have changed since obama's initial decision on a sharper troop withdrawal timeline was made more than two years ago. the white house has also been buoyed by having a more reliable partner in afghan president ashraf ghani, who succeeded the mercurial hamid karzai last year. "the narrative that we're leaving afghanistan is self-defeating," defense secretary ash carter said wednesday during a speech at the association of the u.s. army. "we're not, we can't, and to do so would not be to take advantage of the success we've had to date." asked thursday if 5,500 troops is enough, carter said, "we did a lot of homework on this." he maintained that the troop presence, along with continued financial assistance and training for the afghan military, "are the ingredients to continue the prosecution of the mission." the troops staying in afghanistan beyond next year will continue to focus on counterterrorism missions and training and advising afghan security forces, officials said. they will be based in kabul and bagram air field, as well as bases in jalalabad and kandahar. the president's decision to keep the u.s. military in afghanistan beyond his tenure thrusts the conflict into the 2016 presidential race. the next president will become the third u.s. commander in chief to oversee the war, with the options of trying to bring it to a close, maintaining the presence as obama left it or even ramping up u.s. involvement in the conflict. officials said discussions on staying in afghanistan longer began during ghani's visit to washington in march. the top u.s. commander in afghanistan, gen. john campbell, recently presented the president with a range of options calling for keeping more troops there.<u+00a0>officials said nato allies had expressed support for extending the troop presence in afghanistan, but they did not outline any specific commitments from other nations. obama campaigned for the white house on a pledge to end america's involvement in the two wars he inherited, iraq and afghanistan. now, he'll likely finish his presidency with troops back in both countries. the president did withdraw all u.s. troops from iraq in late 2011, a moment he heralded as a promise kept to a war-weary nation. but the rise of the islamic state drew the u.s. military back into iraq last year to train and assist local security forces and launch airstrikes. obama announced the end of the afghan war with similar fanfare last spring, saying it was time for the u.s. to "turn the page" on more than a decade of deadly conflicts. in march, at a press conference with ghani, he said, "the date for us to have completed our drawdown will not change." the associated press contributed to this report.

obama to keep 5,500 us troops in afghanistan beyond 2016

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a truck bomb detonates in a lively street, congested with pedestrians headed to markets and school kids making their way home. the blast is temporarily deafening and the shock knocks people to their knees. those able to pull themselves up describe a disorienting moment of stillness<u+2014>a ringing in their ears that drowns out the chaos, the shattered bones and the crumbling of nearby buildings into a dusty mess of rebar and brick. but the quiet, like a slow motion scene in a movie, quickly gives way to confusion and frenetic activity; the ringing gives way to a blurring amalgamation of screaming and sirens. this scene is too frequent, familiar as an al qaeda (aq) tactic, and again with its newest incarnation, isis. headlines are dominated by ever-ruthless brutality, senseless violence, and unspeakable injustice, the audaciousness of which leaves us baffled. this isn<u+2019>t really new.<u+00a0> genghis khan<u+2019>s audacity and brutality unnerved his foes into submission. but part of it is very new. although tiny compared to the mongol hordes, operating with apparent orchestrated synergy, isis is seemingly everywhere.<u+00a0> deft battlefield advances interwoven with terrorist strikes create a frightening kinetic reality that flies and multiplies across 21st century connectivity to assault our senses and undermine our confidence.<u+00a0> like savvy investors, isis uses speed and digital leverage to geometrically increase their perceived power. and in war, perception is reality. in our fight against al qaeda in iraq in 2004, we found our elite team<u+2014>with world-class technology, training, and intelligence<u+2014>was losing to a comparatively ragtag group. we pulled all the traditional levers<u+2014>more personnel, raids, and intelligence<u+2014>to no avail. the ringing in our ears was too frequent, too disorienting. the solution, we discovered, was internal. faced with a 21st century threat, we faced the hard realization that being a great team was not enough.<u+00a0> we learned through painful trial and error the necessity of transforming into a system that mirrored the speed and interconnectedness of the distributed networks we were facing. we<u+2014>the u.s. government, international community, and forces on the ground<u+2014>have all the tools and resources required to defeat isis and any of its future manifestations. <u+00a0>what we don<u+2019>t have is an organized, unified approach and structure to harness our collective will, resources, personnel, equipment, intelligence, policy, and diplomatic efforts to defeat them. success demands connecting an ever-dispersed and intricate organization into a team of teams. this will require a fundamental shift in the way we organize ourselves; the traditional command and control structures of large organizations like the government, military, or corporations were developed to provide order and efficiency at scale. but this comes at cost of speed and decentralized decision-making. <u+00a0>even in a hierarchical command of teams, decisions tend to be made at higher levels. a team of teams approach to create networked structures spreads valuable contextual information and empowers individuals closest to the problem to react in real time. at its core, it makes us adaptable. in iraq, we were driven to connect across boundaries in completely new ways, break silos to solve problems, and execute faster than we ever thought possible. this didn<u+2019>t happen overnight; it took us the better part of five years to transform the way our organization operated. defeating isis necessitates a new operating model, but also to recognize that isis isn<u+2019>t a singular challenge, but rather the byproduct of a new order defined by complexity. it is essential to imbue our organizations with adaptability; the challenges will continue to mutate, and we need to adapt alongside. there can<u+2019>t be a temporary taskforce or unit to defeat isis that is dismantled when the mission is complete. the new mission needs to foster a team of teams, otherwise we<u+2019>ll find ourselves knocked to our knees time and again. stanley mcchrystal retired from the u.s. army as a four-star general after more than thirty-four years of service. his last assignment was as the commander of all american and coalition forces in afghanistan. his memoir, "my share of the task," was a new york times bestseller. he is co-author of the new book "team of teams: new rules of engagement for a complex world" (portfolio/penguin, may 12, 2015). he is a senior fellow at yale university<u+2019>s jackson institute for global affairs and the cofounder of crosslead, a leadership consulting firm.

success against isis requires a team of teams

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new york state police are looking into a possible sighting of two convicted murderers who escaped from an upstate new york maximum-security prison two weeks ago. the two men fitting the description of inmates david sweat and richard matt were seen about a week ago in steuben county, new york, over 300 miles southwest of dannemora, according to a news release posted late friday. two men were seen walking near a rail yard in erwin on june 13, and then seen the next day in lindley, new york, heading toward the pennsylvania border. investigators conducted interviews in both communities and have surveillance video that was initially deemed inconclusive and is being sent to albany for analysis. it wasn<u+2019>t clear why authorities waited a week before divulging the information. state police spokesman beau duffy told foxnews.com saturday investigators did not wait that long. he said troopers learned about the possible weekend sightings on tuesday. he said troopers then sought to verify the sightings over the next two days. late friday afternoon, troopers got their hands on the surveillance video. duffy said at that point commanders decided to release information on the possible sightings to alert the public and to hopefully generate more leads. sweat and matt used power tools to cut their way out of clinton correctional facility in dannemora on june 6. hundreds of law enforcement officers have been looking for them. state police say they<u+2019>re prepared to keep searching for the <u+201c>long haul.<u+201d> friday, police asked hunters for help in the search for the escaped convicts. <u+201c>we<u+2019>re asking them to review video from wildlife or trail cameras to see if they see anything suspicious,<u+201d> state police maj. charles guess said at a press conference at the prison. hunters say they are ready to help even if it isn<u+2019>t hunting season and they still haven't turned their trail cams on to track deer. state police said friday they have searched 600 miles of trails leading out of dannemora, but local outdoorsman jason langdon said the wooded area is so vast, searchers still have a lot of work to do. a correction officer from the prison was also suspended, officials announced friday. however, officials didn<u+2019>t have any other information involving the case. the associated press contributed to this report

ny police investigate possible sighting of escaped prisoners

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in the middle of a heated exchange about the syrian civil war during the second presidential debate sunday night, donald trump dropped a surprising new factoid about the relationship between him and mike pence: the indiana governor<u+2019>s policies don<u+2019>t represent his own, and the two apparently haven<u+2019>t worked out their differences. when asked by moderator martha raddatz why his attitude towards russia<u+2019>s involvement with the assad regime directly contradicted pence<u+2019>s comments at the vice-presidential debate last week, trump brushed off his own running mate. <u+201c>he and i haven't spoken, and i disagree,<u+201d> said trump. the dismissive words by trump come at a time that the republican presidential nominee and his running-mate are not on the best terms. the deeply-religious pence reportedly became <u+201c>apoplectic<u+201d> when he learned about a video recording of trump making vulgar comments about forcing himself on women, sending out a harshly-worded statement condemning his remarks. <u+201c>i do not condone his remarks and cannot defend them,<u+201d> he said, adding that he hoped that trump would move on. trump<u+2019>s comments during the town hall-style debate also hinted at a widening rift between trump and pence, the governor of indiana, who had decided to use his time on stage at the vice presidential debate to defend a platform that was, at several points, the exact opposite of trump<u+2019>s platform. pence<u+2019>s calm and measured performance gave republicans some relief, with several calling for him to replace trump at the top of the ticket. that enthusiasm, which reportedly annoyed trump, only intensified after the reveal of the access hollywood footage of trump<u+2019>s lewd comments, and pence was not at trump tower during the emergency meeting the billionaire convened sunday before the debate. in the hours since the 2005 tape was made public, rumors have swirled that pence could abandon the republican presidential ticket, though the speculation may have more basis in wishful thinking than reality. shortly after the debate, however, pence seemed more than open to reconciliation: for more hive coverage of the second presidential debate, read t.a. frank<u+2019>s look at trump reveling in historic lows, watch trump hover over clinton<u+2019>s shoulder, defend his muslim ban and break with his own running mate, find out how the candidates answered the night<u+2019>s final question, and get the scoop on melania trump<u+2019>s interesting sartorial choice.

<u+201c>he and i haven<u+2019>t spoken<u+201d>: trump and pence are having a very public couple<u+2019>s argument

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clinton lost her temper at an event on thursday when activists from greenpeace and 350 action, two environmental organization, asked her to "reject fossil fuel money" and not accept donations from the gas and oil industry. "i'm so sick of the sanders' campaign lying about me. i'm sick of it," clinton said. in response to the confrontation, nick merrill, clinton's spokesman, said the candidate "has not taken a dollar from oil and gas industry pacs or corporations." clinton's campaign, in fact, has not received any money directly from oil and gas companies, as that would violate election law. "you've seen the ad," says a narrator before cutting to a separate ad of obama saying, "i don't take one from oil companies." "no candidate does. it has been against the law for 100 years," says the narrator. "but barack obama accepted $200,000 from executives and employees of oil companies. every gallon of gas takes over three bucks from your pocket. but obama voted for the bush-cheney energy bill that puts $6 billion in the pocket of big oil." the narrator adds, "hillary voted against it. she will make oil companies pay to crate the new jobs in clean energy america needs." clinton concludes the ad by saying, "i'm hillary clinton and i approve this message." the ad ran during pennsylvania's primary, a state clinton won by nearly 10 percentage points. clinton's ad was a response to obama's own ad that said, "i'm barack obama. i don't take money from oil companies or washington lobbyists and i won't let them block change anymore." both clinton and obama accepted money from executives and employees of oil companies during the 2008 campaign, according to center for responsive politics . obama accepted $222,309 and clinton accepted $309,363, according to the watchdog. clinton's 2016 campaign has taken more than $300,000 from people who work for those companies, according to greenpeace. clinton's campaign noted on thursday that sanders has taken upwards of $50,000 from the same individuals. brian fallon, clinton's press secretary, responded to the 2008 ad by noting that sanders, too, has taken money from employees at oil and gas companies. "then, as now, both democratic candidates in the race accepted donations from employees of oil and gas companies," fallon said. "we have not accused senator sanders of being beholden to the oil and gas industry on that basis, nor should he say that of hillary clinton."

clinton, under fire for oil and gas donations, once hit obama for same reason

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chris christie depicts marco rubio as a truant schoolboy. jeb bush<u+2019>s top ally portrays him as a weather vane. ted cruz and his supporters characterize him as a nervous sellout who bowed to democratic demands for <u+201c>amnesty.<u+201d> in commercials, interviews and face-to-face meetings with voters, rubio<u+2019>s 2016 rivals and their backers are waging increasingly personal attacks, using different words to say much the same thing: that the freshman senator from florida is weak and unreliable. with their pointed attacks, rubio<u+2019>s rivals have essentially taken a page out of donald trump<u+2019>s playbook. after months of trying and failing to dislodge the brash gop front-runner, the field is now focused heavily on rubio, who is seen as a vulnerable and necessary target straddling the line between the conservative and establishment wings of the republican party. thursday night<u+2019>s fox business news debate in north charleston, s.c., will put the new dynamic on display before a national audience with less than three weeks to go until the iowa caucuses. rubio advisers and allies are tight-lipped about his debate strategy, but in general they say that he will not endure attacks quietly. rubio tends to respond to criticism with specific, well-rehearsed policy critiques rather than personal jabs. however, in a campaign where trump, christie and cruz have ascended on the strength of their belligerent dispositions and quippy broadsides, rubio<u+2019>s softer approach carries risks. <u+201c>he<u+2019>s not as inflammatory [as] others, and those personal attacks tend to get headlines,<u+201d> said rep. jason chaffetz (r-utah), a rubio supporter. <u+201c>but marco rubio is that steady, responsible conservative with a message that<u+2019>s inspirational for a lot of us.<u+201d> one of the most searing attacks on rubio yet came this week in the form of a web video from keep the promise i, a super pac supporting cruz. the 1 -minute spot splices together footage of president obama praising the immigration reform bill rubio once pushed and clips from interviews edited to give rubio a deer-in-the-headlights look. to many republicans, rubio<u+2019>s youth is one of his best attributes. the 44-year-old candidate regularly talks about hip-hop, electronic dance music, uber and airbnb. he looks, sounds and sometimes dresses younger than most republican officials. but where some see an appealing freshness, others see inexperience and weakness <u+2014> critiques similar to those leveled at barack obama by republicans in 2008. <u+201c>marco rubio has never run anything. i<u+2019>m not sure he could run a bath,<u+201d> said roger stone, a longtime trump confidant who departed trump<u+2019>s political team last year. right to rise usa, a super pac supporting former florida governor jeb bush, put out a video this week that kicked off a multi-pronged attack against rubio, including seemingly questioning his masculinity and accusing him of changing his position on cap-and-trade regulations, immigration and other issues. <u+201c>these boots are made for flippin<u+2019> and that<u+2019>s just what they<u+2019>ll do. one of these days young marco<u+2019>s gonna flip, flop, flip on you,<u+201d> sings a woman in the video, which makes fun of rubio<u+2019>s well-documented fashion choice during a recent swing through new hampshire: a pair of stylish black high-heeled boots. right to rise also released a tv ad showing a rubio cutout spinning around on a weather vane. in a wednesday interview with msnbc, bush <u+2014> who at 6-3 is at least five inches taller than rubio <u+2014> was asked whether he owned any platform boots. <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t have a height issue,<u+201d> he said. [strategic or overconfident? rubio plays hard to get with voters] trump, who also has a height advantage, said last week on a boston radio station that it <u+201c>helps to be tall.<u+201d> <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t know what to think of those boots,<u+201d> he said, adding: <u+201c>they<u+2019>re big heels. i mean, those heels are really up there.<u+201d> rubio has called the fascination with his boots <u+201c>craziness<u+201d> at a time when consequential events are unfolding across the world. for most of rubio<u+2019>s competitors, finishing ahead of him rather than trump is a more realistic goal in the early states. it<u+2019>s particularly critical for those stuck in the middle tier to receive a boost with donors and voters in the first wave of contests. christie, new jersey<u+2019>s governor, is a good example. since the last debate in december, the rubio-christie rift has deepened. christie has said in recent interviews with the washington post and other news outlets that rubio <u+201c>turns tail and runs<u+201d> (a reference to him walking away from comprehensive immigration reform); that the <u+201c>truant officer is out looking for him<u+201d> (a reference to his many senate absences and perhaps his relative youth); and that democratic candidate hillary clinton would <u+201c>cut his heart out.<u+201d> rubio and his campaign have hit back, but on policy rather than character. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m sure he doesn<u+2019>t really want to have a conversation about the issues,<u+201d> rubio said of christie in nashua, n.h., last week. rubio dinged the new jersey governor as a backer of common core education standards, said he <u+201c>ran for office as a supporter of gun control<u+201d> and noted that christie once made a contribution to planned parenthood. days earlier, a pro-rubio super pac unveiled a tv ad campaign in new hampshire with similar lines of attack. [<u+2018>he<u+2019>s cuban. i<u+2019>m mexican.<u+2019> can rubio and cruz connect with latino voters?] on monday, rubio delivered a speech on taxes<u+00ad> in which he took policy swipes at christie and cruz. in a clear shot at the senator from texas, rubio said not to be fooled by advocates of a <u+201c>business flat tax,<u+201d> which he said acts like a <u+201c>value-added tax,<u+201d> widespread in foreign countries but not the united states. much of cruz<u+2019>s anti-rubio rhetoric has been associated with his membership in the bipartisan <u+201c>gang of eight<u+201d> that pushed a comprehensive immigration bill in 2013. the bill included a path to citizenship that conservative opponents call <u+201c>amnesty.<u+201d> rubio has fought back against cruz by pointing to an amendment cruz pushed offering legal status to undocumented immigrants. (cruz says it was a poison pill meant to foil democrats.) rubio has also sought to run to cruz<u+2019>s right on national security, hitting him hard over his vote to stop the government<u+2019>s bulk collection of americans<u+2019> telephone metadata. recent polling shows rubio edging up to second or third place in each of the first two nominating states. there<u+2019>s a growing sentiment that party elites will eventually coalesce around an alternative to trump and cruz, who some leading republicans fear are too combative for the general election. rubio is trying fend off christie, bush and ohio gov. john kasich in that sub-contest. even as he stresses his youth and next-generation appeal, rubio has tried to appear presidential as his rivals raise doubts about him. he is pitching himself as the strongest possible commander in chief. his events, even the small ones, have a formal feel to them, with a stage always erected at the front. his tv ads include several spots with dark themes and dire warnings about threats overseas. rubio will have to adjust a bit to thursday<u+2019>s debate because rand paul, a natural opponent on foreign policy, did not poll well enough to appear on the main stage. in the last debate, rubio took am at the kentucky senator<u+2019>s libertarian-leaning foreign policy to tout his more hawkish views. rubio has tended to do well in the debates, winning positive reviews in each of the previous five meetings. after the debate, rubio will hit the campaign trail in new hampshire and then iowa, where some like evan sinclair, 20, are nervously watching whether he can blunt his rivals<u+2019> attacks. observing rubio shake hands in the des moines suburbs recently, sinclair said he hopes the senator can catch fire. <u+201c>rubio had better shine a light so the republican party can exist,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>people need to wake up and see a rational candidate is needed.<u+201d>

his rivals are saying the same thing in different ways: marco rubio is weak

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but when congress debated and passed the patient protection and affordable care act in 2009 and 2010, opponents were nearly unified in offering grim keech-like predictions. with obamacare now in full effect, and the economy on a decided upswing, the dour prognostications are starting to look like keech's flying saucers. at least if you believe the data. a look at festinger's theories, though, can explain why that won't matter, and why americans can expect a continued drumbeat of doom, even as the prophecies fail. <u+201c>it certainly has not had the baleful effects the critics were predicting,<u+201d> said paul van de water, a senior fellow at the center on budget and policy priorities who supports the law, but never thought it would have much economic impact. <u+201c>on balance it may be a modest plus, to the extent that it has contributed to the slowdown of growth in health care costs.<u+201d> but that's not how capitol hill<u+2019>s gloomsday cult sees it. indeed, try getting any of them to admit the affordable care act jobs slaughter has not happened, and they sound like the punchline to the old joke where a spouse gets caught in the act cheating: <u+201c>who are you going to believe -- me, or your lying eyes?<u+201d> "with politicians, you can<u+2019>t be sure that what comes out of their mouths is really what<u+2019>s in their head," said elliot aronson, one of festinger<u+2019>s former students who is regarded as the foremost expert on cognitive dissonance alive today. "when it comes to politics, we have to really look closely." the way cognitive dissonance works is that when people are confronted with information that contradicts either their beliefs or actions, they feel discomfort. to feel better, they either have to modify their beliefs and actions, or find some way to discount the disconfirming information. and the more effort someone invests in a particular action or idea, the greater the lengths they will go in crafting justifications to ease their discomfort. aronson and co-author carol tavris looked closely at that phenomenon in their 2007 book, mistakes were made (but not by me). among the examples are prosecutors who insist that people cleared by dna evidence are still guilty; scientists who insist results that agree with funders<u+2019> interests could not have been swayed, and people who like an idea from their political party, but dislike the same idea if told it came from the opposition party. indeed, committing to a specific ideology can make it much harder to see facts clearly, let alone acknowledge them. aronson noted that it<u+2019>s especially hard for people who spent the last five years opposing a specific policy. <u+201c>these guys are so committed to the belief that obama can<u+2019>t do anything right, and that obamacare is socialism, that it would be very, very difficult for them to examine the data objectively," he said. "i think that<u+2019>s what<u+2019>s wrong with politics, that<u+2019>s what<u+2019>s wrong with ideology, that<u+2019>s what<u+2019>s wrong with politics that are ideologically driven.<u+201d> <u+201c>one could create some line of argument that the economy would be much, much stronger without the aca, but that really seems to be a stretch,<u+201d> said van de water, the economist. <u+201c>we have a very large economy. even as important as the affordable care act is, it<u+2019>s working on a major sector of the economy, but only at the margins. even in advance, one would have thought it wasn<u+2019>t going to have a huge effect.<u+201d>

why the obamacare doomsday cult can't admit it's wrong

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police searching for the second of two escaped prisoners who pulled off an elaborate breakout from a maximum-security new york prison three weeks ago say that the remaining escapee is fatigued and likely to make a mistake after law enforcement officers shot and killed his accomplice friday. hundreds of law enforcement officers have converged on a wooded area 30 miles from the clinton correctional facility with helicopters and search dogs, where david sweat is believed to be hiding. sweat and fellow escapee richard matt escaped from the maximum-security prison in dannemora about three weeks ago. matt was shot friday afternoon after an encounter with border patrol agents. about 1,200 searchers focused intensely on 22 square miles saturday encompassing thick forests and heavy brush around where matt was killed. franklin county sheriff kevin mulverhill told fox news that police are very motivated after friday's events, while sweat is likely fatigued, increasing the chances he will slip up. "he's been out of prison for three weeks. he's been on the run for three weeks," mulverhill said. "he's in this area, he's now lost his cellmate, his escapemate is gone, he's alone." "if he's in this perimeter, we're pushing him we're moving him around," mulverhill said. <u+00a0>he's tired, he's going to make a mistake." sweat also could have an even tougher time now without someone to take turns resting with and watch his back, said clinton county sheriff david favro. "now it's a one-man show and it makes it more difficult for him," favro said. "and i'm sure fatigue is setting in for him as well, knowing the guy he was with has already been shot." authorities said matt was shot by a border patrol agent when he failed to comply with orders in the woods near a cabin where a shot had been fired earlier in the day at a camping trailer. a 20-gauge shotgun was found on matt, though he didn<u+2019>t fire it at officers, authorities said. "they verbally challenged him, told him to put up his hands. and at that time, he was shot when he didn't comply,"<u+00a0>new york state police superintendent joseph d'amico said at a news conference late friday. the breakthrough came friday shortly before 2 p.m., when a person towing a camper head a loud sound and thought a tire had blown out. finding the tire intact, the driver drove another eight miles before discovering a bullet hole. authorities converged on the location where the sound was heard and discovered the smell of gunfire inside a cabin. d<u+2019>amico said there was also evidence someone had fled out the back door. a noise -- perhaps a cough -- ultimately did matt in. a border patrol team discovered matt, who was shot after failing to heed a command to raise his hands. "as we were doing the ground search in the area, there was movement detected by officers on the ground, what they believed to be coughs. so they knew that they were dealing with humans as opposed to wildlife," he said. "we have a lot of people in the area. we have canines and we have a decent perimeter set up and we're searching for sweat at this time," he said. the pair escaped the prison together on june 6. gov. andrew cuomo called them <u+201c>dangerous, dangerous men.<u+201d> police blocked off all roads as officers hunted for sweat in an area around titusville mountain state forest in malone, spanning 22 square miles. mitch johnson said one of his best friends checked on his hunting cabin in malone friday afternoon and called police after noticing the scent of grape flavored gin as soon as he stepped into his cabin and spotting the bottle that had gone untouched for years resting on a kitchen table. johnson said his friend, correction officer bob willett, told him he summoned police about an hour before matt was fatally shot and then heard a flurry of gun blasts. matt and sweat used power tools to saw through a steel cell wall and several steel steam pipes, bashed a hole through a 2-foot-thick brick wall, and squirmed through pipes to escape. sweat was serving a sentence of life without parole in the killing of a sheriff's deputy in broome county in 2002. matt was serving 25 years to life for the killing and dismembering of his former boss. a civilian worker at the prison has been charged with helping the killers flee by giving them hacksaw blades, chisels and other tools. prosecutors said joyce mitchell, a prison tailoring shop instructor who got close to the men while working with them, had agreed to be their getaway driver but backed out because she felt guilty for participating. mitchell pleaded not guilty june 15 to charges including felony promoting prison contraband. authorities said the men had filled their beds in their adjacent cells with clothes to make it appear they were sleeping when guards made overnight rounds. on a cut steam pipe, the prisoners left a taunting note containing a crude caricature of an asian face and the words "have a nice day." clinton county district attorney andrew wylie said they apparently used tools stored by prison contractors, taking care to return them to their toolboxes after each night's work. on june 24, authorities charged clinton correction officer gene palmer with promoting prison contraband, tampering with physical evidence and official misconduct. officials said he gave the two prisoners the frozen hamburger meat joyce mitchell had used to hide the tools she smuggled to sweat and matt. palmer's attorney said he had no knowledge that the meat contained hacksaw blades, a bit and a screwdriver. dannemora, built in 1845, occupies just over 1 square mile within the northern reaches of the adirondack forest preserve and is surrounded by forest and farmland. the stark white perimeter wall of the prison, topped with guard towers, borders a main street in the village's business district. the escape was the first in history from clinton correctional's maximum-security portion. in july 2003, two convicted murderers used tools from a carpentry shop at elmira correctional facility to dig a hole in the roof of their cell and a rope of bedsheets to go over the wall. they were captured within three days, and a subsequent state investigation cited lax inmate supervision, poor tool control and incomplete cell searches. the associated press and fox news' rick leventhal contributed to this report

surviving escaped prisoner likely fatigued and prone to mistakes, police say

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no matter who wins california's 475 delegates on tuesday, clinton may have to woo the state's sanders supporters as well as trump fans before the democratic convention <u+2013><u+00a0>and possibly beyond. with the california primary election looming tuesday, it is still unclear which democratic candidate will win one of the largest states' 475 delegates. to hear hillary clinton tell it, she's on the verge of beating bernie sanders in the golden state and beyond, but the vermont senator has told supporters that they're gaining ground, and stand a strong chance of cinching the primaries. in the past few days, mrs. clinton has traveled the state in hopes of winning over the the delegates she needs in order to exceed 2,383 and get the nomination. "i'm very proud of the campaign we're running here, and i believe, on tuesday, i will have decisively won the popular vote and i will have decisively won the pledged delegate majority," she said on cnn's "state of the union." senator sanders' campaign, however, protests that delegate math and money don't tell the whole story. he's not<u+00a0>ready to back down <u+2014> especially with the strong coalition of supporters he has in california. "it is extremely unlikely that secretary clinton will have the requisite number of pledged delegates to claim victory on tuesday night," sanders<u+00a0> told reporters in los angeles on saturday, according to cnn. "at the end of the nominating process, no candidate will have enough pledged delegates to call the campaign a victory. that will be dependent upon superdelegates. in other words, the democratic national convention will be a contested convention." some clinton fans, in particular, fear the continued intra-party fight will risk democrats' unity ahead of the general election, leaving them vulnerable against presumed republican nominee donald trump. even if clinton wins the nomination, part of her energy will need to go towards wooing "bernie or bust" supporters, instead of focusing on existing trump voters alone. twenty-five percent of sanders supporters said they would not vote for clinton in the general election if she were the nominee against trump, according to a quinnipiac university poll. the "bernie or bust" movement may be even stronger in california, where the usc dornsife/la times poll indicated that clinton lagged behind sanders 43 percent to 44 percent among registered voters. only 65 percent of those who are voting sanders in the california primary said they would definitely support clinton in the case of a clinton-trump face off. after puerto rico's primary on sunday, clinton holds 1,809 delegates and 548 superdelegates, for a total of 2,357. winning the nomination calls for at least 2,382.<u+00a0>during the democratic primaries on tuesday (when party voters head to the polls in california, new jersey, the dakotas, montana, and new mexico) 694 delegates, including 475 delegates in california, will be at stake. sanders also swept through california this past weekend, verbally attacking trump, but also telling supporters the democratic game wasn't over. if they turn out in force on tuesday, he said, he'll be in a stronger position to capture superdelegates. "if we can win, and win big here in california and in the other states, and in washington d.c., we are going to go into the democratic convention with enormous momentum," sanders told listeners during a rally outside the los angeles memorial coliseum. "with your help, i believe, we will come out with the nomination."

clinton and sanders neck and neck in california primary

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senator ted cruz is now the frontrunner in the republican race for the white house. but if you believe the mainstream media and the political pundits -- marco rubio won the iowa caucus. click here to get todd<u+2019>s american dispatch <u+2013> a must-read for conservatives! just look at tuesday's news coverage -- they marginalized senator cruz -- and glorified senator rubio. and that's the narrative. cruz may have won -- but rubio is more electable. and yet... the numbers in iowa tell a very different story. one out of three evangelical voters chose cruz -- so did four out of ten very conservative voters. and 26 percent of young voters -- 18 to 29 - -- they didn't vote for rubio -- they also voted for cruz. the voters recognize<u+00a0> a simple truth. senator cruz has been a man of his word -- a principled conservative -- and that is something the establishment cannot tolerate. <u+201c>what we are seeing is evangelicals who have been dormant in the political process that are turning out,<u+201d> said tony perkins, president of the family research council. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s something we haven<u+2019>t seen in a number of years.<u+201d> perkins, who has endorsed cruz, told me the voters are not interested in a moderate candidate. they don<u+2019>t want someone in the <u+201c>middle.<u+201d> <u+201c>there<u+2019>s nothing in the middle of the road but yellow stripes and dead animals,<u+201d> perkins said. looking back on the results in iowa, perkins said there should be one take-away for voters. <u+201c>do not listen to the pundits or the polls <u+2013> but vote your values,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>it was values voters and the return of those voters that put ted cruz over the top.<u+201d> it's not that the pundits and politicos hate senator cruz - they know he can't be controlled -- and that has them terrified. todd starnes is host of fox news & commentary, heard on hundreds of radio stations. his latest book is "god less america: real stories from the front lines of the attack on traditional values." follow todd on twitter<u+00a0>@toddstarnes and find him on facebook.

why pundits, politicians and the press hate ted cruz

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ten months after the supreme court passed a landmark case on gay marriage, a backlash against the ruling is spreading across the country. thirty-four states are considering new bills that would protect christians from the threat of legal action because they object to gay marriage on religious grounds. it's shaping up to be a fierce debate as gay activists and people of faith battle for their rights to be protected. business owners dick and betty odgaards' story should serve as a warning of what happens when so-called religious freedom laws are not in place to protect people of faith. on august 3, 2013, a gay couple asked the odgaards if they could rent their gallery in iowa for a same-sex wedding. "they came in, and dick was there, and he was the one who had to deliver the bad news to them," betty recalled. the odgaards refused, citing their christian belief that marriage should be between one man and one woman. "i don't want to celebrate my sins. i don't want other people to celebrate my sins, nor do i want to participate in celebrating anybody else's sins," richard said. the gay couple sued them for discrimination and after a two-year court battle, rather than celebrate gay marriages, the christian couple paid the couple a fine and agreed to stop hosting weddings at the gallery. "it has been difficult. i won't lie," betty acknowledged. "it has been the hardest thing we've ever been through and i don't wish it upon anyone." their decision cost them dearly. after months of negative publicity, hate mail, death threats and loss of income, the gortz haus gallery went out of business last year. "the ugly continues to come at us, but i wouldn't want to be anywhere else and we would do it all over again the same way because we are in the middle of god's will," betty told cbn news. since last summer's supreme court decision legalizing same-sex marriage, more than 100 religious freedom bills have been proposed in 34 states to protect christians and others from the threat of legal action because they object to gay marriage on religious grounds. take for example the new law just passed in mississippi. "the mississippi law says if you believe marriage is the union of one man and one woman, that sex is reserved for marriage and that we are created male and female -- it doesn't say you have to believe those things -- but it says if you do believe those things, we are not going to penalize you if you act on those beliefs," explained dr. ryan anderson, a senior fellow with the washington, d.c-based heritage foundation. in louisiana and ohio, lawmakers are also proposing measures that protect pastors who refuse to perform same-sex marriages. anderson said the accusation that these religious freedom laws are discriminatory against gays and lesbians just isn't true. "i think the basic argument here is that we are trying to protect pluralism, we're trying to protect diversity, we're promoting tolerance," he said. but some of the laws have been met with fierce opposition from businesses, activists and celebrities. for instance, north carolina's governor was forced to roll back portions of a controversial new state law after several companies criticized the law and others threatened to stop their businesses in the state. "i think this just shows you that what's taking place is a form of cronyism, it's cultural cronyism," anderson said. "big business is using their marketing freedom to deny little businesses and religious people their religious freedom." what is clear though is that the backlash from last year's supreme court decision has brought religious freedom concerns to the forefront this spring. many americans believe that the battle over gay rights versus protecting people's religious convictions is just beginning.

just the beginning? religious freedom, gay rights battle turns ugly

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for a speech purporting to challenge washington<u+2019>s accepted wisdom, there was much that was familiar about donald trump<u+2019>s first big foreign policy address, not least the customary certainty of its delivery. a call to challenge radical islam through <u+201c>philosophical struggle<u+201d> as well as military force might even have come from the lips of barack obama. certainly no mainstream republican would ever disagree with the somewhat motherhood-and-apple-pie exhortation for us presidents to view the world <u+201c>through the clear lens of american interests<u+201d>. but how closely the speech stands up to detailed scrutiny is already the subject of fierce political debate. madeleine albright, the former secretary of state put up to respond on behalf of the hillary clinton campaign, claimed she had never seen so many <u+201c>simplistic slogans, contradictions and misstatements<u+201d> in one speech. trump<u+2019>s supporters argue instead that he was at his strongest, skewering the inconsistencies of the democratic establishment<u+2019>s approach under obama and clinton. here are 10 passages that suggest trump may instead be doing what all politicians like doing best: having his cake and eating it. some groups <u+201c>will never be anything but our enemies<u+201d>, trump said after attacking obama for doing deals with iran. only he claimed shortly afterwards: <u+201c>the world must know we do not go abroad in search of enemies, that we are always happy when old enemies become friends, and when old friends become allies.<u+201d> trump also blasted obama for letting down existing overseas partners, promising <u+201c>america is going to be a reliable friend and ally again<u+201d>. yet he delivers warnings about paying for nato membership that might sound more like blackmail to some. <u+201c>the countries we are defending must pay for the cost of this defense <u+2013> and, if not, the us must be prepared to let these countries defend themselves.<u+201d> he was also ambiguous about america<u+2019>s role in promoting democracy in the world, claiming <u+201c>we are getting out of the nation-building business<u+201d> but then adding: <u+201c>i will work with our allies to reinvigorate western values and institutions.<u+201d> he also argued that promoting <u+201c>western civilization and its accomplishments will do more to inspire positive reforms around the world<u+201d>. then there is the standard section of any recent us presidential speech that calls on middle east nations to do more to fight islamic extremism. <u+201c>this has to be a two-way street. they must also be good to us and remember us and all we are doing for them,<u+201d> he said of allies in the region. these comments might have more clout coming from someone who had not recently offended much of the muslim world by threatening to ban their citizens from entering the us. some criticisms of obama<u+2019>s <u+201c>humiliations<u+201d> at the hands of foreign governments do not stand up to much scrutiny either. trump said that obama was snubbed during recent state visits to cuba and saudi arabia because he was not greeted at the airport by a senior leader. <u+201c>perhaps an incident without precedent in the long and prestigious history of air force one,<u+201d> claims trump. strangely, the queen<u+2019>s decision to send the lord-lieutenant of essex <u+2013> hardly the most prestigious of british officials <u+2013> to meet obama at london<u+2019>s stansted airport last week was not mentioned, perhaps because it is a pretty standard way of doing things. a similar non sequitur arises in criticism of obama<u+2019>s failed attempt to persuade the international olympic committee to award the 2016 summer games to chicago. the president should not have flown all the way to the ioc meeting in copenhagen if he did not already know they were going to award the games to the us, argued trump. but what would have been the point of flying all that way to lobby for something that had already been secured? perhaps trump is just trying to live up to his maxim of keeping the world guessing. <u+201c>we have to be unpredictable and we have to be unpredictable starting now,<u+201d> he argued at the start of the speech. except, by the end, he argued for the virtues of a more transparent and principled approach: <u+201c>the best way to achieve those goals is through a disciplined, deliberate and consistent foreign policy.<u+201d> sometimes it is best not to apply too much mathematics. trump claimed, for example, that <u+201c>there are scores of recent migrants inside our borders charged with terrorism<u+201d>, an assertion already open to dispute, but went on to add on top <u+201c>for every case known to the public there are dozens and dozens more<u+201d>. if <u+201c>scores<u+201d> means at least 40, then by this logic, trump is claiming the existence of around 1,000 more people than anyone else has. if the speech has one abiding slogan, it too could have done with some more fact-checking. putting america first sounds at first just like an extension of trump<u+2019>s hallmark promise to make america great again. yet it also harks back to the america first committee of the 1940s, a group set up to prevent the us from joining the second world war, only to be disbanded three days after the attack on pearl harbor. but perhaps this just points to the biggest contradiction of the speech: the tension between its isolationism and its interventionism. at once, trump urges more of a pragmatic and realist approach to the exercise of us power, unconstrained by the niceties of political correctness, and yet blasts obama for having <u+201c>no vision, no purpose, no direction, no strategy<u+201d>. it is perhaps unfair, however, to dwell too closely on textual analysis of a speech clearly written by a number of people. <u+201c>we will no longer surrender this country or its people to the false song of globalism<u+201d> is a powerful line, but it does not sound very much like it was written by the same man who told a rally in pennsylvania on monday: <u+201c>do i look like a president? how handsome am i?<u+201d>

ten inconsistencies in donald trump's big foreign policy address

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killing obama administration rules, dismantling obamacare and pushing through tax reform are on the early to-do list.

talk radio rallies around ted cruz

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brussels, belgium (cnn) in grainy images from surveillance footage, a man wearing light-colored clothes and a hat pushes a baggage cart through the airport. it's one key piece of evidence authorities are looking at as they search for suspects after two explosions at the brussels airport and another at a busy subway station in the belgian capital tuesday killed at least 30 people and wounded 230 others. isis claimed responsibility for the coordinated attacks, but authorities said it's too soon to say for sure whether the terror group was behind the blasts. so far, police have released photos of three men they say are suspects tied to the airport attack, standing side-by-side. two of the men, wearing black in surveillance images, are believed to be suicide bombers who died in the explosions in the airport's departure lounge. but investigators believe the one in light-colored clothing planted a bomb at the airport, then left. authorities called him a wanted man and asked for the public's help tracking him down. "the third man left a bomb in the airport, but it didn't explode. ... and we are now looking for this guy," belgium's interior minister jan jambon said. a photograph released by investigators shows the three suspects side-by-side. federal prosecutor frederic van leeuw said the two men wearing black in the photograph were likely the suicide attackers. video shows the men exiting a taxi and moving through the airport, according to two u.s. officials. the man dressed in white left the airport after accompanying the other two, they said -- a move the officials said appeared to be planned. a break in the investigation may have come from a taxi driver who took the suspects to the airport. the driver contacted authorities after seeing surveillance footage and gave them the address where he picked the men up, according to two u.s. officials briefed on the investigation. that information prompted authorities to raid a residence after the attacks, the officials said. investigators found a nail bomb, chemical products and an isis flag during a house search in the northeast brussels neighborhood of schaerbeek, belgium's federal prosecutor said in a statement. hours later, they were still combing through the building for evidence. security was high. at one point, a helicopter hovered overhead, carrying a sniper with a weapon trained on the building. as masked, armed officers stood guard outside the building, the burst of camera flashes inside could be seen from the street below. officers left the building carrying bags of evidence they loaded onto vehicles. a belgian government representative told cnn that 10 people were killed and 100 wounded at brussels' international airport. at least 20 people died and 130 were wounded at the maelbeek metro station, officials said. the blasts sent wounded people fleeing into the streets, spurred evacuations of nuclear plants and transit hubs and led to raids in some areas as authorities searched for suspects and evidence. authorities in belgium have been trying to crack down on terror threats for months as they raided homes in the area in search of suspects. tuesday's violence came just days after investigators closed in on europe's most wanted man, paris attacks suspect salah abdeslam, who was hiding out in a brussels suburb. on tuesday, belgian prime minister charles michel deflected a question about whether there is any link between the attacks and the belgium-born french citizen's capture, saying it is too early to tell. michel said tuesday he had "no information" about who was responsible for the attack, adding that authorities will find that out, but now their focus is on caring for the victims. two senior u.s. officials told cnn they believe the belgium attack is tied to the same network as abdeslam. one of the two airport explosions happened outside security checkpoints for ticketed passengers and near the airline check-in counters, an airline official briefed on the situation said. the subway station blast happened about an hour later in the brussels district of maelbeek, near the european quarter, where european union institutions are based. "we were fearing terrorist attacks," michel told reporters tuesday. "and that has now happened." but for survivors of tuesday's blasts, the repeated warnings from officials in recent months didn't dull the shock of seeing the carnage. "you cannot believe it; you cannot believe it," said jef versele, who was in the airport's departure hall when bombs exploded there. "it was so insane. not in my backyard." the second blast inside the airport blew out windows, created a lot of smoke and caused parts of the ceiling to fall, he added. "people were on the floor," versele said, estimating he saw 50 to 60 who were thrown to the ground and didn't seem to be able to walk. anthony barrett saw the wounded carried out on stretchers and luggage carts as he watched from his hotel across from the terminal building. "i could see people fleeing," he said. after the attacks in brussels, the home of nato and the capital of the european union, leaders inside belgium and beyond vowed not to back down in their fight against terror. in belgium, where officials declared three days of national mourning, michel offered a resolute message to those who supported and cheered the attackers. "to those who have chosen to be barbarous enemies of freedom, democracy and fundamental values ... we remain united as one," michel said. "we are determined to defend our freedoms and to protect our liberties." in its message claiming responsibility, isis noted that belgium is one of the nations "participating in the international coalition against the islamic state." a twitter post widely circulated by prominent isis backers tuesday featured the words, "what will be coming is worse."

footage shows suspects in brussels attack

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at<u+00a0>the<u+00a0>libertarian town hall<u+00a0>on cnn earlier this month,<u+00a0>the libertarian party<u+2019>s presidential<u+00a0>candidate<u+00a0>gary johnson<u+00a0>and his running mate bill weld<u+00a0>made a pitch<u+00a0>to both <u+201c>never-hillary<u+201d> and <u+201c>never-trump<u+201d> voters on the left and right of the political spectrum as the sane and<u+00a0>principled third-party alternative for 2016.<u+00a0>and whether you agree or disagree with what the two former governors<u+00a0>had to say, it<u+2019>s hard to deny their likability <u+2014> especially in an election where the two major party candidates are as thoroughly unlikable as donald trump and hillary clinton. johnson and weld presumably have a better shot<u+00a0>at appealing to never-trump conservatives than never-hillary liberals or leftists (whose political views align much more with the green party<u+2019>s jill stein), but the former new mexico governor did make a compelling pitch <u+2014> superficially, at least <u+2014> to disaffected bernie sanders supporters at the town hall. and while<u+00a0>polls indicate<u+00a0>that the<u+00a0>majority of the democratic socialist<u+2019>s<u+00a0>supporters will vote for clinton in november, there is a minority faction that will be voting their conscience <u+2014> and johnson is<u+00a0>certainly in a position to<u+00a0>woo some of these voters. with this<u+00a0>undoubtedly<u+00a0>in the back of his mind, the libertarian candidate<u+00a0>said that he and bernie are similar <u+201c>on about 75 percent of what<u+2019>s out there,<u+201d> from marriage equality and reproductive rights, to the legalization of marijuana and the end of futile<u+00a0>military interventions overseas. from an <u+201c>economic standpoint,<u+201d> however, johnson admitted disagreement: <u+201c>if bernie supporters are really looking for income equality, i don<u+2019>t think that is something that government can accomplish. taking from peter to rob paul, that<u+2019>s an equation that peter really loves. but if bernie supporters are looking for equal opportunity, i think that is something that can be accomplished. <u+2026> in politics,<u+00a0>you can definitely stand up for equal opportunity.<u+201d> it was a cogent response that included an acknowledgement that <u+201c>crony capitalism is alive and well<u+201d> <u+2014> something that libertarians and leftists have long agreed on (and equally object to). but apart from this, johnson<u+2019>s economic worldview is diametrically opposed to sanders<u+2019> egalitarian<u+00a0>vision of social democracy<u+00a0><u+2014> and this should be enough to stop the latter<u+2019>s supporters from voting for the former. in the economic realm, right-wing libertarians (as<u+00a0>opposed to left<u+00a0>libertarians or<u+00a0><u+201c>libertarian socialists<u+201d>)<u+00a0>are essentially<u+00a0>classical economic liberals<u+00a0>who reject most of the social democratic reforms that were enacted throughout the capitalist world during the 20th century. instead of a mixed economy,<u+00a0>libertarians<u+00a0>advocate laissez faire capitalism and profess that even minimal state<u+00a0>intervention in<u+00a0>the economy<u+00a0>will<u+00a0>lead to tyranny <u+2014><u+00a0>or<u+00a0>serfdom, as the famous<u+00a0>libertarian philosopher f. a. hayek put it in his<u+00a0>influential book<u+00a0><u+201c>the road to serfdom<u+201d> (this didn<u+2019>t pan out, of course<u+00a0><u+2014><u+00a0>instead, it was the welfare state that likely prevented more radical assaults on capitalism in the west). in his statement, johnson said that he doesn<u+2019>t<u+00a0>believe that<u+00a0>the government can<u+00a0>reduce economic inequality <u+2014><u+00a0>which<u+00a0>has soared over the past forty years <u+2014><u+00a0>and equated<u+00a0>redistributive measures to theft. this<u+00a0>alone reveals the<u+00a0>candidates<u+00a0>dogmatic worldview.<u+00a0>the<u+00a0>social democratic reforms of the 20th century clearly demonstrate<u+00a0>that wealth and income inequality<u+00a0>can<u+00a0>be curbed within a<u+00a0>capitalist economy (and<u+00a0>should<u+00a0>be if leaders want to<u+00a0>achieve greater<u+00a0>economic and political stability).<u+00a0>while<u+00a0>johnson is less fanatical<u+00a0>than some of his party colleagues (indeed, he is considered<u+00a0>too<u+00a0>moderate by many libertarians),<u+00a0>he is still undoubtedly the most extreme candidate of 2016<u+00a0>on economic matters. he opposes corporate taxation, supports privatized healthcare, advocates eliminating the progressive income tax and<u+00a0>replacing them with a regressive consumption tax,<u+00a0>and is a proponent of widespread economic deregulation and privatization (including the<u+00a0>privatization of prisons). libertarianism<u+00a0>may sound good on paper <u+2014> championing individualism and<u+00a0>maximum<u+00a0>freedom; but in practice, its laissez faire prescriptions would result in corporate tyranny, the very opposite of freedom (libertarians are so consumed with the threat of<u+00a0>state tyranny that they seem unable to even<u+00a0>consider the very real threat of private tyranny, or as<u+00a0>noam chomsky has described<u+00a0>it,<u+00a0><u+201c>tyranny by<u+00a0>unaccountable private concentrations of wealth<u+201d>).<u+00a0>g. a. cohen, the father of<u+00a0>analytical marxism<u+00a0>and<u+00a0>notable critic of libertarianism, discussed<u+00a0>how<u+00a0>private property actually inhibits<u+00a0>the freedom of the ownerless<u+00a0>in his essay <u+201c>capitalism, freedom, proletariat<u+201d>: <u+201c>private property, like any system of rights, pretty well<u+00a0>is<u+00a0>a particular way of distributing freedom<u+00a0>and unfreedom.<u+00a0>it is necessarily associated with the liberty of private owners to do as they wish with what they own, but it no less necessarily withdraws liberty from those who do not own it. to think of capitalism as a realm of freedom is to overlook half<u+00a0>of its nature.<u+201d> now, there was a time<u+00a0>when the rugged individualism and<u+00a0>minimal state intervention<u+00a0>that libertarians advocate could have conceivably produced a greater degree of freedom: namely, in a pre-capitalist, pre-industrial economy <u+2014><u+00a0>before the prevalence of wage-labor and the advent of multinational corporations, when independent producers<u+00a0>(e.g.<u+00a0>yeoman farmers,<u+00a0>artisans, etc.) who<u+00a0>sold<u+00a0>their own commodities on the market (or simply produced for<u+00a0>subsistence)<u+00a0>were the dominant economic players. but<u+00a0>in a modern corporate capitalist economy<u+00a0>in which<u+00a0>the richest 20 citizens control more<u+00a0>wealth than<u+00a0>the bottom half<u+00a0>(about 152 million people in america), these notions are not only antiquated, but inimical<u+00a0>to<u+00a0>both freedom and democracy. thus, a bernie<u+00a0>sanders supporter<u+00a0>would have to be<u+00a0>grossly uninformed to go from backing the democratic socialist senator<u+00a0>to a libertarian like johnson. yes, there are similarities between the two; but their political philosophies are so antithetical to each other<u+00a0><u+2014><u+00a0>particularly<u+00a0>when it comes to<u+00a0>political economy<u+00a0><u+2014><u+00a0>that the single issues where there is some agreement are basically irrelevant. libertarianism<u+00a0>is fundamentally opposed to the<u+00a0>egalitarian and democratic values that sanders represents.

why sanders supporters cannot back gary johnson: his libertarianism is antithetical to the senator<u+2019>s democratic socialism

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paul d. ryan is a bit of a control freak: each day should have a similar rhythm, each meeting should begin on time, each day should end like the day before. all of which makes his new job as speaker of the house, overseeing a raucous caucus of 246 republicans, an odd fit for this very type a personality. this past week was an early test. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m really kind of into routines, so i<u+2019>m still working on getting a routine established,<u+201d> ryan (r-wis.) told reporters thursday in a roundtable discussion. ryan, 45, whose german mother instilled a rigid discipline in him, can<u+2019>t even get over the fact that the speaker, by tradition, skips most house votes to conduct more meetings in office suites off the chamber floor: <u+201c>i just like having routines, and i can get more done that way.<u+201d> with three weeks under his belt as speaker, ryan has learned that the routine business of congress can turn on a dime, for almost any reason. he<u+2019>s aware that his words carry more weight now, and he<u+2019>s aware that some weeks he<u+2019>s not going to be able to live up to his promises of letting the house conduct business in a completely transparent fashion. one week he was promoting a wide-open, free-flowing system of dozens of amendments for a highway funding plan, winning an impressive bipartisan vote. the next week brought the exact opposite, with a rushed bill to tighten safety requirements for syrian refugees in the wake of terrorist attacks in paris. no committee considered the legislation, no amendments were allowed, and the bill was made public about 40<u+00a0>hours before it was voted on by the house. [house passes bill to tighten flow of syrian refugees over obama<u+2019>s objection] that inflicted whiplash on some lawmakers, but it demonstrated that ryan understands that the ultimate judgment of his tenure will be based on results as much as, if not more than, the process used to achieve those results. in the 35-minute session, ryan said that the decision to rush the legislation <u+2014> which calls for tighter screenings of refugees before they can be admitted <u+2014> was actually driven by the lawmakers themselves. despite their repeated outcries for an open process, once they saw the impact of terrorism in paris, lawmakers reverted to their most basic political instinct and demanded that something be approved before they left thursday for a 10-day recess over the thanksgiving holiday. <u+201c>most members said we need to act before we leave, we need to act before the recess,<u+201d> ryan said. <u+201c>people came from intelligence briefings saying, <u+2018>you need to do something.<u+2019><u+00a0><u+201d> so ryan obliged, setting up a process he admitted was <u+201c>outside the realm of regular order<u+201d> and scored a big political win, getting more than a two-thirds majority, enough to overrule a presidential veto. he said that with so much fear of terrorist attacks, the public just needed to see congress get something done. <u+201c>if we had a free-for-all on the floor, who knows what the outcome would be, and i think that the country is very worried and the country wants to see us doing something,<u+201d> he said. but he also ran into some familiar partisan turbulence. despite ryan<u+2019>s assertion to have consulted democrats, the ranking democrat on the homeland security committee said he had no part in the legislation and described it as a <u+201c>gotcha bill<u+201d> that will not make the nation any safer. <u+201c>we probably say things to get where we are, position-wise,<u+201d> rep. bennie thompson (miss.) said after thursday<u+2019>s vote, during which nearly 50<u+00a0>democrats rejected white house pleas and voted with ryan. <u+201c>but once we get there, it<u+2019>s not nearly as easy to govern with new rules as we thought.<u+201d> the high-profile victory was an odd one for a new speaker who has staked so much of his reputation on advancing deep policy proposals, eschewing so-called show votes that are more designed to protect political flanks back home. even ryan said that the real concern for national security was a visa waiver program that lacks proper protocols and the emerging threat of homegrown terrorists inspired by overseas events, and that those threats could make their way across the atlantic ocean. <u+201c>common sense and prudence dictate that we be on higher alert and that we cannot assume that paris was a one-and-done event,<u+201d> he said. house minority whip steny h. hoyer (d-md.) mocked ryan<u+2019>s quick turnaround to flush a bill through the house so quickly, suggesting that the increasingly conservative tone of the republican presidential primary campaign would <u+201c>reflect<u+201d> the congressional dysfunction and boost democrats in next year<u+2019>s elections. some gop presidential hopefuls called for a full stop of any syrian refugees while some also called for allowing only christian refugees. the speaker said that his motivations were based on what he heard from house republicans on capitol hill. <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t even know all of their positions, to be candid,<u+201d> he said of the presidential aspirants. <u+201c>i<u+2019>ve been busy doing my job.<u+201d> [republican candidates move to keep muslim refugees out] the speaker<u+2019>s newly fumigated office <u+2014> the smoke-filled paint left behind by camel-smoking john a. boehner was chipped off, the carpet cleaned multiple times <u+2014> has proven to be comfortable in the early days. <u+201c>it smells better in here,<u+201d> ryan joked. but once congress returns after thanksgiving, ryan<u+2019>s routine will revert to what the speaker dismissively calls <u+201c>the chores<u+201d>: passing a compromised version of the highway bill through the house and senate, approving a new k-12 education program and finally, by dec. 11, a massive funding plan for federal agencies. each of these issues is either many months, or many years, behind schedule, so ryan views them as cleaning up other leaders<u+2019> messes. they will again test his ethos for opening up the house, a demand from the conservative flank that so bedeviled boehner he became only the second speaker to resign midterm in the past 50 years. he claims to be one of those far-right conservatives, that he is of their ilk and not trying to force them to bend to his will. <u+201c>you have to understand, i come from the conservative wing of the party, i<u+2019>m a movement conservative who comes from this part of our party. people know that, you know. so a lot of these guys are pretty good friends of mine,<u+201d> he said. if only he can figure out a routine, again, he might make it work. <u+201c>time management has always been challenging. it<u+2019>s just even more challenging,<u+201d> he said, shaking his head. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m really weird about time management and punctuality, and i just want to make sure i can stay on top of those things.<u+201d>

paul ryan<u+2019>s biggest early challenge: finding a <u+2018>routine<u+2019> as house speaker

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two of al qaeda's spiritual leaders have said that the terror organization is barely functioning after losing money and manpower to the rapidly rising islamic state group, according to a report. abu qatada and abu muhammad al-maqdisi have described al qaeda as being without "organizational structure," the guardian reports. maqdisi said al qaeda leader ayman al-zawahiri is isolated from his top lieutenants and "operates solely based on the allegiance. "there is no organizational structure. there is only communication channels, and loyalty," he reportedly said. qatada, who was deported to jordan from britain in 2013 to face terrorism charges, also acknowledges that isis has gotten the better of al qaeda in the propaganda wars as well as those fought on the battlefield. the guardian report traces the beginning of al qaeda's downfall to the ascension of zawahiri as al qaeda's leader following the death of usama bin laden in may 2011. while zawahiri has been forced to move in secret in the remote mountain regions along the afghanistan-pakistan border, hundreds of thousands of militants have flocked to the new battlefields in syria and iraq. "what is leadership," asked dr. munif samara, an al qaeda associate quoted in the report, "if your leader is in afghanistan and your soldiers are in iraq?" in april 2013, the report claims, abu bakr al-baghdadi, who had been chosen as the leader of what was then called the islamic state of iraq (isi) in 2010 without bin laden's consent, announced that isi and the syrian rebel group the nusra front would merge to form isis. in response, zawahiri ordered beghdadi to restrict his operations to iraq and said that nusra front commander muhammad al-joulani would lead al qaeda's official branch in syria. according to the report, baghdadi rebuffed zawahiri's decision, launching his own campaign of terror with the help of escaped prisoners from iraqi jails and a massive influx of foreign fighters who had come to syria to join the civil conflict aimed at overthrowing syrian president bashar assad. the following summer, isis overran large swaths of territory in iraq and syria, including the cities of mosul and tikrit, as the iraqi army fled. it now has a global network of affiliates that stretches from afghanistan to west africa, and they have set about making their presence known through their own brand of terror. last week, an afghan army corps spokesman told the new york times that 10 taliban fighters had been beheaded by isis fighters. meanwhile, in eastern libya, militants linked to al qaeda there declared holy war <u+2014> or jihad <u+2014> on the local isis affiliate after one of their senior leaders was killed wednesday by masked gunmen. that sparked an hours-long battle in the coastal city of darna that left 11 people dead on both sides. meanwhile, al qaeda's standing and finances continue to suffer. a former al qaeda member-turned-british intelligence agent tells the guardian that at one point last year, the group was in such desperate times that it had to sell its laptops and cars to buy food and pay rent. the associated press contributed to this report. click for more for the guardian.

al qaeda leaders say group near collapse amid rise of isis, report claims

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in the wake of donald trump<u+2019>s abortion gaffes, it should finally be clear that trump is not a real conservative <u+2014> he is the liberal caricature of a conservative. in his now infamous interview with chris matthews, trump not only declared that if abortion became illegal women who have abortions should face <u+201c>some form of punishment,<u+201d> but also asserted that <u+201c>conservatives, republicans would say, yes they should be punished.<u+201d> no, they would not. this is not something a real pro-life conservative would say; it is something a liberal pretending to be a pro-life conservative would say. anyone remotely familiar with the pro-life cause knows that its advocates don<u+2019>t want to punish women. marjorie dannenfelser, president of the susan b. anthony list, explains that the focus of laws restricting abortion <u+201c>is on protection, not punishment. women were not punished by the legal system before 1973<u+2019>s roe v. wade decision and there is absolutely no drive to punish her now.<u+201d> as mother teresa famously put it, <u+201c>abortion is profoundly anti-women. three quarters of its victims are women: half the babies and all the mothers.<u+201d> trump does not understand this, because he is deeply unfamiliar with what motivates pro-life americans. the goal of the pro-life movement is to create a <u+201c>culture of life<u+201d> that upholds the dignity of every human person from conception to natural death. the objective is not punishment; it is to protect both mother and child. since trump does not actually understand what pro-life conservatives truly believe, he mindlessly echoes the liberal caricature of pro-life conservatives. he mistakenly thinks this is what these conservatives want to hear. they don<u+2019>t. this is, however, what liberals want to hear. they want a republican candidate who feeds their false <u+201c>war on women<u+201d> narrative. they want to run against the caricature of the pro-life position, because the caricature is ugly. and trump is giving them precisely what they want. if that were not bad enough, trump then went on to compound his problems by reversing himself. in an interview with john dickerson on <u+201c>face the nation,<u+201d> trump said that he would not change the law to protect innocent unborn life, declaring that <u+201c>the laws are set. .<u+2009>.<u+2009>. at this moment, the laws are set. and i think we have to leave it that way.<u+201d> leave it that way? this is something no pro-life conservative would say. it<u+2019>s not even something a liberal pretending to be a pro-life conservative would say. it<u+2019>s something hillary clinton would say. trump then twice declined to answer when asked whether he thought abortion is murder, saying <u+201c>i<u+2019>d rather not comment on it<u+201d> and <u+201c>i just don<u+2019>t think it<u+2019>s an appropriate forum<u+201d> before finally, on the third try, grudgingly saying <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t disagree.<u+201d> quite the profile in pro-life courage. trump likes to say he is a convert to the pro-life cause, just like ronald reagan. but reagan would never have said that laws allowing abortion on demand should not be changed. as president, reagan supported the <u+201c>human life bill,<u+201d> which would have recognized the unborn as human beings and protected them as persons under our constitution. reagan would also never have said that women should be punished for having abortions. in his 1983 essay for the human life review, <u+201c>abortion and the conscience of a nation,<u+201d> reagan declared: <u+201c>we should not rest until our entire society echoes the tone of john powell in the dedication of his book, <u+2018>abortion: the silent holocaust,<u+2019> a dedication to every woman carrying an unwanted child: <u+2018>please believe that you are not alone. there are many of us that truly love you, who want to stand at your side, and help in any way we can.<u+2019> <u+201d> much like when trump referred to <u+201c>two corinthians<u+201d> instead of <u+201c>second corinthians,<u+201d> his comments on abortion are a <u+201c>tell<u+201d> demonstrating that he does not possess a basic understanding of the first principles that animate conservative thought on the sanctity of life. so let<u+2019>s stop the charade. when it comes to the issue of life, donald trump is a caricature, not a conservative. read more from marc thiessen<u+2019>s archive, follow him on twitter or subscribe to his updates on facebook.

abortion gaffes show trump is the left-wing caricature of a conservative

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wednesday, i participated in facebook<u+2019>s meeting with conservatives at the company<u+2019>s headquarters in silicon valley. even though i did the round trip in a little more than 24 hours, the west coast feels a long way away from new york city. geographically and culturally. the facebook setting is so different from the work environments i<u+2019>m used to, including its open floor plans to encourage the constant flow of creativity and its casual nature. the place is calm, but i had the feeling cool stuff was happening. it<u+2019>s different and, i<u+2019>ll admit, a bit unnerving for someone who likes structure. but it<u+2019>s also really neat. it<u+2019>s powerful. and they know it. facebook invited 16 conservatives to a meeting it described as long overdue. over time, the trust between conservatives and the company has been eroding. last week<u+2019>s accusations from a former contract employee about the alleged <u+00a0>practice of suppressing conservative viewpoints and news stories in its trending topics feature was the spark that lit a fire. the meeting was an attempt to put the fire out and to begin to rebuild trust with the conservative community. this was a meeting where two bubbles collided: one of conservative media and activists and the other of the world of facebook. i went to the meeting with an open mind and a lot of curiosity. the facebook executives we met with greeted us with humility and the admission that they need to do a better job. overall, the meeting went well. here are my five takeaways: 1. facebook recognized that it<u+2019>s lost trust with conservatives and it is genuinely serious about fixing it. while some in the conservative media worried that this meeting would be an insincere gesture and a mere photo-op (there were no cameras), the main company executives present -- including facebook ceo mark zuckerberg -- could not have been more genuine. it was very clear that facebook does not take these allegations lightly, and they acknowledged a real trust deficit with their conservative partners and users. i left feeling assured that facebook would be working to repair relationships amidst the damaging allegations and to reestablish credibility in the conservative community about its commitment to inclusivity and neutrality. wednesday<u+2019>s meeting was a civil environment where everyone had the opportunity to voice their opinions, concerns, and questions. imagine a meeting in 2016 where 16 different conservatives <u+2013> representing all the different viewpoints we have <u+2013> get along really well and are reminded of our common principles. (maybe we should have the convention in silicon valley? ok, maybe in 2020). everyone had a chance to speak and did so frankly. and respectfully. zuckerberg and his team did way more listening than talking, which left the door open for a meaningful conversation. and, despite the uncomfortable temperature in the room (the power went out in the headquarters just as the meeting started), zuckerberg kept the meeting going for an additional 20 minutes so that everyone had a chance to speak and get their questions answered or ideas raised. 3. face-to-face is best for establishing trust. zuckerberg immediately acknowledged that this meeting was one he should have started long before. he was right <u+2013> and we can meet him halfway on that. but the fact that he invited all of us to facebook<u+2019>s headquarters allowed everyone to voice their concerns and opinions to each other in one room, face-to-face. that showed an immediate level of respect from zuckerberg and his team, and the same was true of the conservatives that were there. the conservatives were prepared, specific, smart, and creative.<u+00a0> this is an important thing to remember in business relationships, and even personal relationships. 4. employment diversity is not limited to gender and ethnicity. facebook -- and silicon valley in general -- takes pride in their commitment to diversity among their employees. but a point that was made yesterday is that diversity in thought and opinion is critical as well for a well-rounded company. gender diversity and ethnic diversity are not the only ways to diversify, and facebook clearly lacks conservative staffers. the company did not disagree. 5. conservatives need to keep using all the available social media platforms. social media as a whole has been a boon for conservatives. never before could a conservative reach that many people without a mainstream media filter. conservatives have built followings, movements, and even presidential campaigns utilizing facebook. since the company has admitted it needs to do better, let<u+2019>s take them up on that. we can offer specific solutions and bring creative ideas. we can pick up the phone or get on a plane and meet with people <u+2013> i found them to be reasonable and approachable. this may not always be the case, but it is the situation we have right now. conservatives want facebook to be more responsive, and we are pushing on an open door. let<u+2019>s walk through it. being a conservative means fighting for individual liberty, freedom of expression and markets and for less government interference in our lives. by all accounts, a majority of americans agree with those principles. we should use all available tools at our disposal to spread that word and build a stronger conservative movement in the united states and around the world. author's note: click here to read more about why i am a conservative. dana perino currently serves as co-host of fox news channel's "the five" (weekdays 5-6pm/et). she previously served as press secretary for president george w. bush. she is the author of the new book "let me tell you about jasper : how my best friend became america's dog" (october 25, 2016). ms. perino joined the network in 2009 as a contributor. click here for more information on dana perino. follow her on twitter@danaperino.

dana perino: conservatives, here are 5 reasons why we should accept facebook's olive branch

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the race for the white house has become even more uncertain as federal investigators begin searching through newly discovered emails belonging to hillary clinton's top aide, huma abedin. the emails were found on a laptop of abedin's estranged husband, anthony weiner, who is currently under investigation for allegedly sexting an underage girl. officials have obtained a warrant to search those emails, but it is unlikely the review will be completed by election day. meanwhile, the presidential race has tightened dramatically in the last several days. the gap was closing even before friday's news that the fbi would reopen the investigation into clinton's emails, but now the contest is virtually a dead heat. even though the polls are close, clinton still has an apparent advantage in the electoral college. consequently, both candidates are hitting key swing states where the election will likely be decided. addressing supporters at a rally in kent, ohio, monday, the former secretary of state sounded defiant about the email controversy. "i'm sure a lot of you may be asking what this new email story is about and why in the world the fbi would decide to jump into an election with no evidence of wrongdoing with just days to go? that's a good question," clinton said. "first of all, for those of you who are concerned about my use of personal email, i understand. as i said, i'm not making excuses, i understand and i regret it," she continued. "they should look at them. and i'm sure they will reach the same conclusion they did when they looked at my emails for the last year. there is no case here." meanwhile, campaigning in michigan, republican rival donald trump kept his focus on clinton's latest controversy. "thank you, anthony. i never liked you, anthony, but thank you very much," the gop nominee said. "the clinton crime spree ends on nov. 8. it's gonna end on nov. 8." clinton could face more problems in the days ahead. wikileaks is reportedly set to release more hacked emails related to the presidential campaign. the organization has already caused another problem for democratic operatives. cnn dropped former analyst donna brazile after wikileaks revealed she had leaked a question from one of the debates in the democratic primary to the clinton campaign. no one knows what effect the fbi investigation or the wikileaks releases will have before election day. the last week before the election could be as unpredictable as the entire campaign has been so far this year.

'there's no case here.' clinton defiant amid email probe

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this story has been updated. a stampede of gop presidential hopefuls descended on<u+00a0>new hampshire this weekend<u+00a0>for the first in the nation republican leadership summit, a political cattle-call that formally kicks off the 2016 presidential primary in the early-voting state. the post's bob costa explained the stakes in nashua: "the attendance by a bevy of ambitious republicans underscores the intense competition already underway in new hampshire, which plays a critical role in the nominating process. with no clear front-runner here, campaigns are rushing to make inroads with primary voters who traditionally demand personal interaction and unceasing attention." we'll be following the speeches throughout the weekend. tune in for highlights... among the gop presidential hopefuls who spoke at the leadership summit in new hampshire on saturday were former hewlett-packard chief executive<u+00a0>carly fiorina, louisiana gov. bobby jindal, businessman donald trump, sen. lindsey graham (s.c.), former arkansas governor mike huckabee and sen. ted cruz (tex.). fiorina drew rousing applause when she was asked by a questioner how she would be different from other republicans, such as jeb bush, marco rubio and scott walker. "i am different from everyone else running in every aspect," she said, noting her business background made her stand out from people whose only experience has been politics. "i come at problem solving differently. and oh, by the way, i look a little different, too." jindal spoke at length about his parents who left india and settled in baton rouge. he praised their work ethic, the value they placed on education, and their belief in america as the land of unlimited opportunity. he drew the biggest applause when he said: "when my parents came to america, they were coming to become americans. i am tired of the hyphenated americans. they didn't come to become indian-americans." trump was asked what kinds of people he would choose for a cabinet if he ran for president and won. he criticized the way ambassadors are chosen, singling out caroline kennedy, who is u.s. envoy to japan. "she is not talented at what you have to do," he said. "she doesn't know anything about trade." instead, he would choose someone from wall street for that position. huckabee was asked to state his opinion on global climate change. "fact or fiction?" the questioner wanted to know. huckabee said he was in college when scientists were predicting that "we would all freeze to death." now the grim outlook is that the earth will burn up. "the earth is an amazing body. let me be very blunt. i believe the earth is the lord's creation," he said, as the audience applauded. cruz criticized president obama's efforts to fight the islamic state. his first question was what he would do differently if he were in the white house. cruz said the goal shouldn't be to weaken or degrade the terrorist group, but to "utterly and completely destory isis." and the current debate over "boots on the ground" in iraq should be driven by military assessments on how to reach that goal, he added. still, cruz recalled that he wasn't satisfied with the assessment he heard during a senate briefing from army gen. martin dempsey, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, about how that goal could be achieved. "i asked him, 'in what time frame can we destroy isis,'" cruz said. dempsey responded that there is no military solution, cruz recalled, only a change in the underlying conditions to prevent potential recruits from being radicalized through poverty. "there is a word for that--i have to clean it up for c-span--and simply say it's nonense," cruz said. "the way to defeat isis is not expanded medicaid throughout iraq." here are some of friday's speakers: best applause line: "we lived through jimmy carter, we'll live through barack obama! i promise you!" runner-up: "[obama] had a very important mission: raising money for needy democrats in dallas." hillary hit: <u+201c>she<u+2019>s the one that literally brought the reset button to the kremlin. ... well [russia] did reset us, that<u+2019>s for sure; they reset us back to pre-1989, from my perspective.<u+201d> granite state pander:<u+00a0>on what he learned from the last election: "number one is you've gotta spend a lot of time in new hampshire. you better be healthy and you've gotta spend years here.<u+201d> how it played: the texas governor spent a considerable amount of time on foreign policy, showing his grasp<u+00a0>of<u+00a0>the subject matter while avoiding any "oops" moments. (he told audience members running for president takes a lot of work, and that he's been studying up.) perry received several standing ovations but -- though he delivered an animated speech -- the tone in the room was somewhat subdued. best applause line:<u+00a0>"some people say i'm too blunt and too direct and too straightforward. i think we could use a little bit of that in washington, d.c." crowd pleaser: <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t know what they<u+2019>re talking about in terms of rough edges. <u+2026> i<u+2019>m a republican in new jersey. come and try that for a couple of days. ... [it's]<u+00a0>not a place where republicans go<u+00a0>to win elections." obama zinger:<u+00a0>"all he cares about now are his legacy and his library." gop side-eye: "what amazing leadership i just showed by saying i oppose government waste. ... anybody that comes up here and says that, boo them off the stage." how it played:<u+00a0>christie played to his strengths and only delivered a few minutes of prepared remarks (on entitlement reform), instead choosing to spend<u+00a0>most of his time taking questions. the crowd greeted that very warmly. throughout his speech he urged members of the audience<u+00a0>to ask other candidates -- and potential candidates -- what they will do about the cost of entitlement programs: "if they're not going to do anything to fix that problem, we're not going to be able to deal with any of the other problems...we have in this country." voter buzz: leader of the pack but needs to prove himself to conservative base* subtle rubio jab: "we have elected a president who was a phenomenal speaker but he was two years as a united states senator and had no record of accomplishment...and what did we get?" obama slam: "this is the first president in post-world war ii era who does not believe that america's presence in the world as a leader and america's power is a force for good. i do." most self-aware line: "i don't see any coronation coming my way, trust me. we have 95 people running, i'm clearly intimidating a whole bunch of folks, aren't i?" kumbaya: "it's not that [democrats'] motives are bad, it's just that they have bad ideas. that's the attitude you start with ... you have to rebuild trust. this is where the president has let us down more than any other thing ... it's pushing down people that disagree with him to make himself look better. the next president has to reverse that." how it played: bush spent the first 15 minutes sharing his biography peppered with policy over red meat for the base. bush is clearly positioning himself for the field's adult-in-the-room role: that of a pragmatic problem-solver who is not driven by ideology. he tried to strike a positive tone about america's future, at one point responding to a question about gay marriage with an answer about restoring economic opportunity for all americans. it underscored that he wants his campaign to be a debate about economic issues, not cultural/social ones. hillary clinton jab: "scott brown tonight let me know that hillary clinton's gonna raise $2.5 billion dollars. that's a lot of chipotle, my friends." harry reid jab:<u+00a0><u+201c>i think i get along personally with everyone, even people that call me a loser." granite state name-check:<u+00a0>on the way here, i was texting with my youngest daughter. and i meant to say i'm in nashua. but i guess the spell check changed it to nassau. and so she wrote back: how many delegates does the bahamas have?" how it played: rubio gave what's becoming his standard stump speech: he cast himself as a next-generation leader with a forward-looking vision and argued for a muscular foreign policy. *rating is based on three recent new hampshire polls; an april 15 public policy polling survey; a march 25 franklin pierce/boston herald survey; and a march 24 suffolk university poll. colby itkowitz and sean sullivan contributed to this report.

live from new hampshire: they<u+2019>re all here

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as expected, the voters of wisconsin have given both sens. ted cruz, r-texas, and bernie sanders, d-vt., victories over their parties' front-runners. did trump's abortion comments and his attacks on gov. scott walker hurt him in wisconsin? click play for cbn news chief political correspondent david brody's take on tuesday's primary results. that means contested party conventions may be more likely this summer for the republicans and maybe even the democrats. it wasn't a knock-out punch, but cruz delivered a major blow to donald trump's effort to secure enough delegates to win the republican presidential nomination before the gop convention. "god bless the great state of wisconsin!" cruz exclaimed tuesday before a group of his supporters. wisconsin republicans gave him the nod over trump, 48 percent to 35 percent. ohio gov. john kasich came in a disappointing and distant third, winning only 14 percent of the vote. cruz said he is truly unifying the republican party. "tonight is a turning point," he said. "it is a rallying cry. it is a call from the hard-working men and women of wisconsin to the people of america. we have a choice. a real choice." meanwhile, trump responded saying there's no party unity -- just an anti-trump initiative led by the gop establishment. but american voters may now be moving toward favoring cruz over trump. a new reuters poll shows the texas lawmaker leading trump for the first time nationally, 39 to 37 percent. he still needs to win 1,237 delegates to get the nomination. after wisconsin, trump has 740 delegates, cruz has 514 and kasich only 143. meanwhile on the democratic side, badger state voters made hillary clinton "feel the bern." moments after he learned he had defeated clinton in wisconsin, sanders shouted, "we won in wisconsin!" during a campaign rally in wyoming. the vermont democratic socialist senator decisively beat clinton by 10 points, with almost 57 percent of the vote to her to 43 percent. sanders said he's proving his effort is not just a fringe campaign. "we have now won seven out of the eight last caucuses and primaries," he explained. but sanders still needs to win about 67 percent of the remaining delegates to secure the democratic presidential nomination -- 2,383 are needed. currently, clinton has 1,743, while sanders has 1,056. while the momentum may now favor sanders and cruz, it can quickly change in political campaigns. both trump and clinton are expected to win their home state of new york when voters go to the polls for that primary in two weeks.

will cruz, sanders victories lead to contested conventions?

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barack obama<u+2019>s announcement on friday that american special forces will take a more active role in the war in syria is for many critics of his foreign policy a confirmation that the us has inched deeper into a chaotic conflict. it<u+2019>s also an opportunity for presidential candidates to both praise and denounce him. and most republican and democratic presidential candidates propose doing even more than the raids that obama has authorized, which skeptics call <u+201c>mission creep<u+201d>. the war pits the syrian president, bashar al-assad, against various rebels and the jihadi group islamic state, and now involves the us, russia, iran, gulf states, turkey, the kurds and iraq. here<u+2019>s how foreign policy might look under the ideas of potential presidents. nearly all the candidates of both parties have called for a no-fly zone over syria, arguing that denying assad<u+2019>s air force will better protect civilians and rebels from bombing runs. <u+201c>a superpower can impose a no-fly zone if it decides it wants to,<u+201d> said stephen biddle, a professor of international affairs at george washington university. <u+201c>but the problems are it<u+2019>s very expensive, no one is willing to pay the price, and these days there are serious risks of escalation.<u+201d> a no-fly zone would require far more airstrikes on airfields and anti-aircraft batteries, for instance, putting american pilots in danger against syrian missiles and jets. russia<u+2019>s entry into the war further complicates the proposal, increasing the risk of shooting down russian aircraft bombing rebels. and while a future president could warn vladimir putin to fly strikes at his own peril, the us stands to lose more should putin simply continue strikes. an american president<u+2019>s choice would then be to stand down or risk a wider, far more dangerous war <u+2013> and political disaster at home <u+2013> by firing on russian pilots. nor would a no-fly zone offer certain protection to civilians or rebels whom an american president finds acceptable. most of the war<u+2019>s dead <u+2013> civilian or combatant <u+2013> have not been killed from the air but on the ground, by bullets, mortars and artillery shells, according to the violations documentation center. the statistics suggest a no-fly zone would not do much to staunch the bleeding of civilians or any friendly rebels. in contrast, russia<u+2019>s strategy of indiscriminate bombing boosts assad<u+2019>s much more limited aims, which do not take civilian casualties into account. only republican rand paul and democrats martin o<u+2019>malley and bernie sanders oppose a no-fly zone. billionaire donald trump has maintained that <u+201c>safe zones<u+201d> on the ground in syria and iraq would help end the war and solve the refugee crisis, and said that turkey and the gulf states of saudi arabia, the uae and qatar should lead the effort with us help. but while a ground campaign could defend civilians from the deadliest threats, it would also entail all the dangers of mission creep and the painstaking logistics of a war effort. one american has already died in a raid on an isis facility, and a russian soldier died in syria last week. <u+201c>to keep it safe would require fighting,<u+201d> the defense secretary, ash carter, told congress on tuesday. <u+201c>you need to think in each case <u+2026> who<u+2019>s in, who is kept out and how the enforcement of it is done.<u+201d> any campaign would probably need snipers, radar and recon teams, artillery and special operations teams <u+2013> if not full infantry battalions, micah zenko, a senior fellow at the council of foreign relations, has noted in foreign policy. <u+201c>the types of interventions that proponents have endorsed for syria are often based on deep misunderstandings of how us force was used on behalf of humanitarian missions in the past,<u+201d> zenko wrote. <u+201c>proposals that consciously ignore or downplay the amount and type of force needed to protect civilians are just wishful thinking.<u+201d> biddle agreed, adding that another problem is that safe zones offer cover to both civilians and combatants. <u+201c>say you set up a safe zone along the turkish-syrian border, and lo and behold guerrillas start operating within it, and the government starts firing artillery into it. what do you do then? silence the artillery by expanding your perimeter? push the perimeter until it<u+2019>s all of syria?<u+201d> he also noted the problem of policing <u+2013> for instance, the dilemma of a suspected rebel whose family vouches for the person<u+2019>s innocence. <u+201c>you don<u+2019>t have to walk very far down the thought experiment to end up with all sorts of problems and ambiguities,<u+201d> biddle said. senator marco rubio is the most vocal supporter of embedding special forces with rebel and kurdish ground troops. most of the candidates support arms for rebels, though few have specified which groups they find acceptable and how they would vet them <u+2013> the same problems that have slowed pentagon efforts in the last two years. more problematically, most of the syrian rebels eager for weapons and aid are not interested in a concerted fight against isis. <u+201c>while there are tens of thousands of rebels willing to receive training and equipment to go after the assad regime, few are willing to fight the islamic state,<u+201d> zenko wrote earlier this year. arming anti-assad rebels may suit us interests, but it would also pit the us against russia and iran in a proxy war. even regional allies disagree with american priorities about isis, biddle noted, which is why turkey continues to bomb kurds and saudi arabia and the uae arm groups around the region, most notably in syria but also in the ruins of yemen. these same conflicted interests make it unlikely that the nations would ever band together to form their own <u+201c>safe zone<u+201d>. <u+201c>they all have bigger fish to fry,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>we<u+2019>re the biggest, but we<u+2019>re the only one who thinks isil is the threat to be resolved first.<u+201d> although kurdish fighters have proven the most reliable allies for us ground offensives, turkish warplanes have increased bombing sorties against kurdish forces in syria and iraq, meaning increased arms for the kurds could fuel a war between two american allies on yet another border. arming kurdish fighters could also lead to the us supplying groups that it has named terrorists, if it hasn<u+2019>t inadvertently done so already. in october amnesty international accused the kurdish group ypg of human rights violations. rubio, jeb bush and lindsey graham have spoken strongly in favor of arming syrian rebel groups and kurds, ted cruz has called for directly arming the kurds, hillary clinton urged arms for rebels and kurds while she was secretary of state, and even o<u+2019>malley has said the us should <u+201c>probably<u+201d> arm the fighters. all candidates except senator rand paul have said they support obama<u+2019>s decision to extend the us military presence in afghanistan to 2017, though a handful say they only do so out of deference to the generals<u+2019> advice. but the presence of 5,500 to 10,000 troops, as the president and candidates prescribe, would have little effect on the war against the taliban, experts said. most said a steady run of airstrikes had prevented the taliban from massing, and that the end of <u+201c>combat operations<u+201d> <u+2013> resulting in a lull in airstrikes <u+2013> had given the militants opportunity to retake cities and regroup. the spread of american troops at four airbases around afghanistan and continued airstrikes <u+2013> including one that bombed a hospital <u+2013> suggests obama plans to let generals use as much airpower as possible to support afghan forces. but neither he nor any candidate has shown any appetite for a major reinforcement. barring dramatic changes to barack obama<u+2019>s plans and the politics of the middle east, 2017 will begin with 5,500 troops across afghanistan and a number of special forces teams operating in syria and iraq. paul, trump and cruz have all offered variations on a plan that could see us forces withdraw from the region, ceding a lead military role to russia and iran but continuing airstrikes against isis. but while staying out of foreign conflicts has appeal at home to democrats and republicans alike <u+2013> and arguably supports us interests <u+2013> <u+201c>it still sacrifices interests that are real, even if they<u+2019>re limited,<u+201d> biddle said. <u+201c>there<u+2019>s the prospective future terrorist threat of an ungoverned region, the risk of a war if that metastasizes and spreads,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>if you wash your hands of it, you<u+2019>re running a social science experiment to sit back and see how many of these bad things unfold. that<u+2019>s a really bad choice for a person that has the power to make a difference.<u+201d> not least on the minds of the president or any would-be commander in chief, he added, was that to do nothing <u+201c>hands the opposition a bunch of really obvious talking points<u+201d>.

after obama changes tack on syria, what would the presidential candidates do?

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the state department on monday would not rule out giving iran up to $50 billion as a so-called "signing bonus" for agreeing to a nuclear deal later this year, according to comments made to journalists following reports that the obama administration had formulated a plan to release tens of billions of frozen iranian funds. experts have said this multi-billion dollar "signing bonus" option, which was first reported by the wall street journal, could be the largest cash infusion to a terror-backing regime in recent memory. a cash release of $30 to $50 billion upon reaching a final nuclear agreement would come in addition to the more than $11 billion in unfrozen assets that iran will already have received under an interim nuclear accord reached in 2013. when asked to address these reports on monday, state department spokeswoman marie harf attempted to dodge the issue and then accused reporters of getting "spun up" on the issue. asked whether iran could receive $50 billion "on day one after signing" or verbally agreeing to a nuclear deal, harf told reporters that she would "look into it." when pressed to provide an answer about the journal's initial report, harf declined "to go line by line in the story." harf said sanctions relief to iran will continue through june 30. click for more from the washington free beacon.

state department won<u+2019>t rule out $50b <u+2018>signing bonus<u+2019> for iran

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the toughest job in politics these days is defending hillary clinton, mocked brilliantly by the new york post as the <u+201c>deleter of the free world.<u+201d> her beleaguered defenders, as they retreat behind the bunker door, are settling on a crude legal defense. their mumbo jumbo chorus -- begins with the claim that she didn<u+2019>t break any laws by doing government business on her private email and ends with the insistence that everybody does it. that<u+2019>s their story, and they are sticking to it <u+2014> until they are forced to find another one. that will be soon because, while hillary<u+2019>s helpers may have a point about fuzzy laws, their argument is ultimately futile. she<u+2019>s not on trial and opponents don<u+2019>t have to meet a persnickety legal standard to win their case. she<u+2019>s running for president <u+2014> and she must meet a less precise but more difficult standard. it<u+2019>s the test of integrity, and she<u+2019>s failed it often during her 30 years in public life. to continue reading michael goodwin's column in the new york post, click here. michael goodwin is a fox news contributor and new york post columnist.

the toughest job in american politics? defending hillary clinton

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the poll from hispanic leadership network and resurgent republic found that a majority of latino voters in florida, colorado, new mexico and nevada prefer democrats and a number of democratic-supported policies, even on key republican priorities such as bringing down the deficit and helping small business. the results of the survey were "sobering," resurgent republic board member whit ayres told reporters at a press conference wednesday. for one, more than half of latino voters polled in each state said the gop doesn't respect the values and concerns of their community. "republicans are in a hole. there's no question republicans are in a hole," he said. "we're not sugar-coating that. but there's also no question that republicans have enormous potential to do far better than they've done." the poll found that a plurality of latino voters in each of the four states said they are more likely to vote for a democrat than a republican in the 2016 presidential election. but nearly a third of those voters in new mexico and florida said they would consider both parties, showing there is potential for the gop to improve its standing. in colorado and nevada, closer to a quarter of latino voters said they would consider both parties. president barack obama won a larger proportion of the latino vote than previous democratic presidential candidates did in 2008 (bettering his own numbers), 2004 and 2000. one reason, according to most exit polling and the speakers on wednesday, was former gop presidential nominee mitt romney's harsh rhetoric and hardline stances on immigration. "i call it the immigration earmuffs," hispanic leadership network executive director jennifer korn said. "even though you might agree on jobs, the economy, national security, if the tone is harsh on immigration, they're not going to listen to you on the other issues." another potential problem for republicans could be social issues such as same-sex marriage, which a plurality of latino voters said they support. it's a common trope among republicans that latino voters are conservatives who just don't realize it, in part because many are catholic. but many are also younger than the average catholic population, and their views on same-sex marriage align more with their age cohort than their religious one. "this is where things start to get a little discomforting for me, as a republican," ayres said. "because these are issues on which you would expect republicans to do relatively better. ... democrats [considered to have] ideas that help small business. now, come on, we are the party of small business, right? but we still haven't made that sale yet in the hispanic community." despite all the obstacles, representatives for the two groups argued there is potential for republicans to win a larger proportion of the latino vote, particularly those who said they consider themselves conservatives but voted democratic anyway. "the republican brand among the hispanic, latino community is not a good brand. it's in terrible disrepair and is in need of a substantial uplift and needs substantial resuscitation. the patient's not dead, but it's on life support," said former sen. norm coleman (r-minn.), who is chairman of the american action network. "we believe the good news is ... that there is a path to tap into the latino community."

latino vote poll: some would consider a republican in 2016

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ted cruz, looking for a shake-up in the 2016 race as donald trump moves steadily closer to the republican nomination, on wednesday announced former gop primary rival carly fiorina as his choice for running mate should he win the party nod. the move was immediately dismissed as an act of <u+201c>desperation<u+201d> by the trump team, but cruz <u+2013> while acknowledging it is <u+201c>unusual<u+201d> to announce a running mate so early <u+2013> defended the decision. he claimed <u+201c>nobody is getting to 1,237 delegates,<u+201d> the number needed to clinch the nomination, and voters should <u+201c>know what [they] will get.<u+201d> <u+201c>after a great deal of time and thought, after a great deal of consideration and prayer, i have come to the conclusion that if i am nominated to be president of the united states that i will run on a ticket with my vice presidential nominee, carly fiorina,<u+201d> cruz said. cruz, together now with fiorina, was trying to fight trump's narrative that the race is effectively "over," after the front-runner swept five primary states on tuesday. but fiorina, in accepting cruz's offer, said she's ready to "fight." <u+201c>i<u+2019>ve had tough fights all my life," fiorina said. "tough fights don<u+2019>t worry me a bit.<u+201d> cruz made the announcement in the critical primary turf of indiana, which votes next tuesday. speaking at an afternoon rally in indianapolis, cruz announced his decision to cheers and chants of <u+201c>carly! carly!<u+201d> while touting the former hp ceo<u+2019>s credentials and life story. the theoretical pairing represents a diverse ticket <u+2013> offering the possibility of electing the first hispanic president and first female vice president. <u+201c>this is a choice that you are telling the american people that <u+2018>this is an individual that i trust and, more important, this is an individual that you can trust to lead this country, no matter what might happen,<u+2019><u+201d> cruz said. but for the time being, fiorina will hold the odd position of being a vice presidential candidate-in-waiting <u+2013> as cruz continues to lag far behind trump in the battle for the gop nomination. even fiorina would have to be elected by delegates at the convention. as for cruz, he<u+2019>s already been mathematically eliminated from clinching the nomination before the convention, and is relying on the prospect of a cleveland floor fight. a highly visible cruz surrogate, the former hp ceo recently handed over her tax returns to the cruz campaign for vetting, cnn reported tuesday, and her name immediately surfaced when cruz teased a <u+201c>major announcement<u+201d> wednesday morning. cruz said wednesday that he and his family had grown so close to fiorina that she often sings to his young daughters -- a skill she showed off during her speech -- and also exchanges texts with the young girls. <u+201c>and carly may be the first vice president in american history to have an impressive fluency with hearts and smiley face emoticons," cruz said. trump leads cruz in pledged delegates, 954-562, but cruz<u+2019>s strong ground operation has elected many delegate allies to the republican convention in july. cruz believes the battle will proceed to a contested convention, where he hopes to triumph once some pledged delegates become unbound and are free to switch their votes. trump on wednesday morning dismissed the notion of cruz tapping a running mate. "first of all, he shouldn't be naming anybody because he doesn't even have a chance," trump said. "naming carly's dumb, because carly didn't do well. she had one good debate -- not against me by the way, because i had an unblemished record of victories during debates -- but she had one victory on the smaller stage and that was it." in a statement later wednesday, trump criticized the move as cruz "only trying to stay relevant." while most presidential candidates wait until they have the nomination sewn up to announce a running mate, cruz's selection of a vice presidential candidate in april <u+2013> while he<u+2019>s well behind in delegates <u+2013> followed a pattern of somewhat unconventional campaigning including an early embrace of trump and kicking off his campaign without first forming an exploratory committee. fiorina began her career working as a secretary and receptionist but quickly rose up the business ranks and was named in 1999 as the chief executive officer for hewlett-packard, becoming the first woman to lead a fortune 20 company. "of all the people who didn't make it far in the race, she was one of the best about laying out her plan, talking about who she is and her accomplishments," said doug de groote, a fundraiser for cruz based near los angeles. on her website, fiorina describes her tenure at hp as having <u+201c>saved 80,000 jobs<u+201d> during <u+201c>the worst technology recession in 25 years.<u+201d> but her time at the helm also drew criticism for alleged deals with iran brokered through a subsidiary and the laying off of 30,000 employees. in 2004, fiorina left the company after the board of directors forced her resignation. her career as a political candidate began when fiorina tried to unseat california sen. barbara boxer during an unsuccessful 2010 bid. boxer on wednesday mocked the suggestion of fiorina as cruz's running mate. "the best way to describe that ticket is mean and meaner," she said. "he wants to throw people out of the country and she threw thousands of jobs out of the country. perfect match." in may 2015, fiorina announced her candidacy for president and quickly became known as a feisty critic of hillary clinton and a strong defender of the pro-life community. planned parenthood immediately panned fiorina's wednesday pairing with cruz as<u+00a0>"the most loathsome pair of anti-abortion extremists in america." her early debate performances were lauded by many critics; however, she never gained traction and suspended her campaign after single-digit finishes in iowa and new hampshire. she endorsed cruz in early march and has appeared often with him on the campaign trail. when asked about being cruz<u+2019>s vice president in early march, fiorina replied, <u+201c>let<u+2019>s win the nomination first.<u+201d> though she eventually threw her support behind cruz, fiorina also attacked him when she was still a competing candidate. she termed him one of the <u+201c>ultimate insiders<u+201d> and called him <u+201c>too divisive<u+201d> in january. she also criticized cruz for saying <u+201c>one thing in the drawing rooms of manhattan and another thing in the living rooms of iowa.<u+201d> fox news<u+2019> ed henry and serafin gomez and the associated press contributed to this report.

cruz announces fiorina as choice for running mate

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some say additional tapes of republican nominee donald trump making disparaging, sexual comments likely exist, but it<u+2019>s unclear if such revelations could impact the candidate<u+2019>s loyal voting base. supporters of republican presidential nominee donald trump gather at trump tower on saturday, in new york. mr. trump insisted he would 'never' abandon his white house bid, despite calls for him to quit the race following the release of his sexually charged comments caught on tape. those who worked alongside donald trump say there are likely unheard records of lewd, disgraceful statements made by the candidate, but the impact such recordings could have on his candidacy may be limited. mr. trump<u+2019>s colorful, and often controversial, comments have characterized his campaign. he has made offensive remarks regarding muslims, immigrants, the african-american community, women, and prisoners of war, many of which have led establishment republicans to turn their backs on the gop nominee. but his <u+201c>tell it like it is<u+201d> attitude has also resonated with groups of disenchanted voters, imploring them to put their trust in trump and defend, or ignore, his alienating remarks. the greatest crisis of trump<u+2019>s political career to date came friday when the washington post released a lewd tape from 2005. in the recording, trump makes disparaging comments about his sexual conduct with women. top republicans, including arizona sen. john mccain and sen. kelly ayotte of new hampshire, took a firm stance against their party<u+2019>s candidate, saying they could no longer plan to support him. many urged him to step down and cede the platform to vice presidential candidate mike pence. those who know the candidate paint vastly different pictures of him. some have said he was professional during his tenure on the nbc reality series <u+201c>the apprentice,<u+201d> but, bill pruitt, a former producer on the reality show, alluded to the possibility of more, and worse, recordings from the show in a tweet saturday. <u+201c>as a producer on seasons 1 & 2 of #theapprentice i assure you: when it comes to the #trumptapes there are far worse. #justthebegininng,<u+201d> he wrote. since, the real estate mogul<u+2019>s opponents have been eager to uncover the recordings, hoping more damning comments could bury the republican<u+2019>s campaign. but it<u+2019>s not clear what effect, if any, more controversial tapes would have on trump<u+2019>s run for president. his supporters haven<u+2019>t been easily swayed by the kind of scandals that have ruined presidential bids in years past. after friday's release the tape, 74 percent of republicans said gop leaders should continue to support the candidate, and only 12 percent of republicans said they<u+2019>d like to see trump end his bid for president,<u+00a0>according to a morning consult/politico poll conducted immediately after the washington post broke the news about the 11-year-old video. <u+201c>the results show that nearly all voters have heard about the video and most rate it negatively, but trump<u+2019>s supporters are not abandoning him right away,<u+201d> kyle dropp, co-founder and chief research officer at morning consult, which conducted the poll along with politico, said. while some of these voters are drawn to trump<u+2019>s bold statements and aggressive temperament, others see the choice in this election as hinging on policy, not personality.<u+00a0>as the christian science monitor previously reported, evangelical christians have surprisingly stood by the candidate, citing his stance on topics like abortion, religious freedom, economic policies, and supreme court justice ideologies. this behavior, while counterintuitive at first glance, isn<u+2019>t new in the world of partisan politics. <u+201c>without overstating the case, [evangelicals<u+2019> defense of trump] does remind me of when a lot of prominent feminists came to the defense of president bill clinton during the monica lewinsky matter,<u+201d> john green, a religion and politics expert at the university of akron, in ohio, told the monitor. <u+201c>they said, <u+2018>we deplore the conduct, but look at all the positive things the clinton administration has done for women.<u+2019> <u+201d> with less than a month until election day, pledged trump supporters may be unlikely to shift their allegiances, even if more material drawing the candidate<u+2019>s character into question arises. and trump himself seems to recognize the power of his loyal voting bloc. <u+201c>the polls, they say i have the most loyal people, did you ever see that? where i could stand in the middle of 5th avenue and shoot somebody and i wouldn<u+2019>t lose any votes, okay?<u+201d> trump said in january. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s like incredible.<u+201d>

do voters care about more trump tapes?

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some of the biggest donors and fundraisers in the republican party, still uncertain who should get their support in 2016, are sprinkling their money around a presidential field that grows by the day. the largesse born of their indecision has a notable exception: rand paul. the kentucky senator has aggressively tried to raise money around his effort to curtail the surveillance powers of the national security agency, emailing supporters and posting messages on social media imploring people to "celebrate this victory" with their cash. in doing so, he's exacerbated the perception among some of the gop's most generous donors that his positions on foreign policy make him an unacceptable choice for the white house. this is especially so to those who consider an aggressive posture abroad and support for israel paramount. "i do not know of a single person in mitt romney's donor network who will be with rand paul," said phil rosen, a manhattan attorney and top fundraiser for the 2012 republican nominee. rosen said he met with paul and politely told him he wouldn't be supporting him "because of his isolationist and libertarian policies." rosen hasn't settled on his choice in next year's primary contest but expects to decide soon from a short list. other prominent donors are doing the same, with some willing to give money to multiple candidates in the early stages of the campaign, but not to paul. among them: las vegas casino owner sheldon adelson, new york hedge fund pioneer michael steinhardt and ken abramowitz, founder of a venture capital firm in new york. all three have given money to south carolina sen. lindsey graham, who announced his presidential campaign on monday by saying he wants "to be president to defeat the enemies trying to kill us." those donors, like many of the republican party's biggest spenders, are looking for the strongest candidate on foreign policy, especially on the protection of israel. that's become the centerpiece of not only graham's campaign, but also is a featured aspect of the bids of florida sen. marco rubio and texas sen. ted cruz. "graham in particular has a terrific record in congress and is experienced and articulate," said steinhardt, who is also giving to former new york gov. george pataki and former arkansas gov. mike huckabee. the weight of donor opposition to paul hit his campaign soon after he launched it in april, when a politically active nonprofit, the foundation for a secure and prosperous america, began a $1 million television advertising campaign against him in the four early primary states. the nonprofit can raise unlimited money and is not legally required to disclose its donors. several other groups are prepared to pounce on paul if they sense he is gaining traction in the race. among them is a group led by john bolton, a former ambassador to the united nations who recently decided against running himself, but plans to push for strong national security policies from the sidelines. "i've spoken to well over 1,000 major republican donors and can remember only one who agreed with rand paul on foreign policy," bolton said. "the views he represents are a tiny, tiny minority within the republican party." unlike several of the other republican candidates for president, paul doesn't have an obvious billionaire <u+2014> or group of billionaires <u+2014> backing his campaign, as new jersey gov. chris christie does with home depot founder ken langone and rubio does in car dealer norman braman. campaigning in south carolina last week, when he spoke about his fight against renewing the nsa's authority to collect americans' phone records in bulk, paul said he isn't concerned about the big donors lining up against him. but he said he wouldn't turn down their money. "if you know some billionaires, and you want to send them our way, we're happy to talk to them," paul said. "it's more about votes than it is about dollars, and i think we're going to have plenty of money to compete." paul said he's counting on small-dollar donations raised primarily online, the kind he's tried to drum up during the debate that has resulted in at least the temporary suspension of the nsa's authority to collect americans' calling records. he's attracted enthusiasm outside the usual republican circles, particularly from college-aged voters with a distaste for military engagement and others who put civil liberties at the forefront of their concerns. republican pollster frank luntz, who isn't aligned with any 2016 candidate, said what paul lacks in traditional deep-pocketed donor enthusiasm, he could make up for in smaller contributors. "he's not going to have a traditional campaign because he's not going to be a traditional candidate," luntz said. "that comes with advantages and disadvantages." paul's campaign said it raised more than $1 million online in his first 24 hours as a candidate, but wouldn't say how much it has raised around the nsa issue. it will report on its finances next month.

some gop donors willing to give to many, just not paul

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the democratic vice-presidential nominee, sen.<u+00a0>tim kaine of virginia, and the republican nominee, gov. mike pence of indiana, debated oct. 4 at longwood university in farmville, va. here is a roundup of 25<u+00a0>suspicious or interesting claims that were made. as is our practice, we do not award pinocchios when we do a roundup of facts in debates. kaine surely meant to say nuclear weapons but it came out as chemical weapons. (later in the debate, he said <u+201c>[clinton] went toe-to-toe with russia as secretary of state to do the new start agreement to reduce russia<u+2019>s nuclear stockpile.<u+201d>) even so, kaine<u+00a0>overstates the impact of the 2011 new start (strategic arms reduction treaty agreement, which clinton helped negotiate as secretary of state. new start placed tighter limits on deployed strategic weapons but russia was actually already meeting the treaty<u+2019>s limits, for the most part, when the treaty<u+2019>s implementation began. indeed, russia has increased deployed nuclear weapons<u+00a0>from 1,537 in february 2011 to 1,796<u+00a0>in september of this year. also, the treaty does not restrict either country from stockpiling weapons, nor does it require them to destroy any existing weapons. russia<u+2019>s total nuclear warhead arsenal has been on a steady decline from 40,000 since 1986. the total<u+00a0>has hovered around 4,500 since 2012, during obama<u+2019>s presidency. kaine leans way over on his skis here. the iranian nuclear agreement was actually negotiated by clinton<u+2019>s successor, john kerry, though clinton helped tee up the negotiations by increasing sanctions on the islamic republic. the deal, which has been sharply criticized by republicans, did increase the amount of time that iran would need to build a nuclear weapon by reducing its centrifuges for uranium enrichment and its stockpile of enriched uranium; international monitoring of iran<u+2019>s nuclear facilities was also implemented. but key elements of the deal expire in 15 years (some go longer) and iran<u+2019>s nuclear infrastructure remains in place. while iran has insisted it has no interest in building nuclear weapons, the deal does not eliminate the risk that it will obtain nuclear bombs.<u+00a0>the agreement limits iran<u+2019>s civilian nuclear program and it is also<u+00a0>contains an indefinite prohibition on activities related to a weapons<u+00a0>program, defined in annex 1, section t. whether those elements<u+00a0>eliminates the<u+00a0>nuclear weapons program is a matter of opinion. indeed, clinton<u+2019>s economic plan would raise an estimated $1.46 trillion in tax revenues over the next decade, according to an analysis by economist mark zandi. but the tax hike <u+201c>falls almost exclusively on the most highly paid,<u+201d> the analysis says. this figure does not take into account the impact of her other proposals on the economy. for example, his report also said that if clinton were able to fully implement her economic plans, the economy would add an additional 3.2 million jobs during the first four years of her presidency. combined with anticipated job creation under current law, that adds up to 10.4 million jobs. but the report also said that clinton would face significant roadblocks to getting her economic plan through congress, resulting in far fewer job gains. trump has, indeed, said all of those things. during his campaign announcement, trump said: <u+201c>when mexico sends its people, they<u+2019>re not sending their best. they<u+2019>re not sending you. they<u+2019>re not sending you. they<u+2019>re sending people that have lots of problems, and they<u+2019>re bringing those problems with us. they<u+2019>re bringing drugs. they<u+2019>re bringing crime. they<u+2019>re rapists. and some, i assume, are good people.<u+201c> we awarded trump<u+2019>s claim connecting illegal immigrants from mexico and crime four pinocchios. in 2007, trump called rosie o<u+2019>donnell <u+201c>a slob,<u+201d> <u+201c>a pig<u+201d> and a <u+201c>degenerate<u+201d> in a single speech. he has called arianna huffington <u+201c>a dog<u+201d> and said new york times columnist gail collins had <u+201c>the face of a dog.<u+201d> trump did say that the indiana-born u.s. district court judge gonzalo curiel had an <u+201c>inherent conflict of interest<u+201d> because of his mexican heritage and trump<u+2019>s plan to build a wall along the u.s.-mexico border. trump has said mccain was <u+201c>not a war hero,<u+201d> and that mccain is <u+201c>a war hero because he was captured. i like people that weren<u+2019>t captured.<u+201d> trump has, indeed, said: <u+201c>we have a situation where we have our inner cities, african americans, hispanics, are living in hell, because it<u+2019>s so dangerous.<u+201d> and trump was one of the most high-profile <u+201c>birthers<u+201d> who questioned whether obama was a u.s. citizen. earlier in the campaign, trump said women who receive illegal abortions should be subject to <u+201c>some sort of punishment.<u+201d> but he reversed that statement several hours later, after widespread criticism from those on both sides of the abortion rights issue. he amended his statement to say that the doctors, not women, should be punished. this is correct. a key difference here is that nixon did not release his taxes while he was a presidential candidate; he did so in 1973, a year after he was reelected. presidential candidates have no legal obligation to release their returns, but there has long been a tradition to do so for the sake of transparency. trump has cited a pending internal revenue service audit, even though the first president to release his taxes, nixon, did so in the middle of an audit. moreover, trump has not released his tax returns from before 2009, which are no longer under audit, according to his attorney. pence is correct on raw numbers regarding education spending, but is incorrect when the figures are adjusted for inflation. in fiscal year<u+00a0>2017, state spending on higher education and k-12 education is the largest in indiana<u+2019>s history. but adjusted for inflation, the 2017 appropriations are not quite as high as they were in 2010 and 2011, said lawrence deboer, purdue university economist and an expert on indiana<u+2019>s state budget. by 2017, indiana state spending on education will be almost back to 2011 levels, deboer said. on infrastructure,<u+00a0>pence began improving the state<u+2019>s roads only after an emergency repair of the interstate 65 bridge led to a month-long traffic problem and caused a political liability, the associated press reported. political ads attacked pence for saving money in the state<u+2019>s reserves at the expense of underfunding the state<u+2019>s infrastructure. pence then proposed a plan to improve roads <u+201c>that relied on borrowing, drawing down state reserves and accounting gimmicks to reach an advertised $1 billion sticker price,<u+201d> the ap<u+00a0>reported. <u+201c>in the end, he got just a fraction of that after indiana<u+2019>s republican-controlled legislature balked. and much of the money set aside for local governments came from local taxes held in state reserves that were already supposed to be returned.<u+201d> clinton<u+00a0>has said she would expand obama<u+2019>s executive actions on immigration and has advocated for comprehensive immigration reform, including a pathway to citizenship.<u+00a0>but she also has supported enhanced border security. and her immigration proposal includes <u+201c>humane, targeted and effective<u+201d> enforcement and focusing immigration<u+00a0>resources on detaining and deporting those <u+201c>who pose a threat to public safety.<u+201d> [update: hacked emails released on oct. 7 showed clinton apparently said in a paid closed-door speech<u+00a0>to a brazilian bank: <u+201c>my dream is a hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders,<u+201d> through green energy. the clinton campaign has refused to authenticate the hacked emails, but campaign manager robby mook said in an oct. 9 cbs <u+201c>face the nation<u+201d> interview that clinton was <u+201c>talking about integrating green energy between north and south america. <u+2026> if the question is, <u+2018>does hillary clinton support throwing open our borders?<u+2019> absolutely not. and she is going to do everything she can to fight to protect the interests of workers in this country.<u+201d>] this is correct. clinton has said she supports president obama<u+2019>s decision to accept 10,000 syrian refugees in fiscal year 2016 <u+2014><u+00a0>and that she would support an increase up to 65,000. that is a 550 percent increase from 10,000. but clinton has not yet disclosed her plan for the new fiscal year or beyond. this map below shows where syrian refugees have ended up in the united states. maybe the gop ticket did not precisely use the word <u+201c>great<u+201d> or <u+201c>better,<u+201d> but kaine pretty much hits the target here. pence told cnn just a few weeks ago: <u+201c>i think it<u+2019>s inarguable that vladimir putin has been a stronger leader in his country than barack obama has been.<u+201d> pence made these remarks<u+00a0>just after trump asserted that putin has <u+201c>been a leader far more than our president has been a leader.<u+201d> kaine repeats a line that recently earned hillary clinton three pinocchios. but no credible analyst would cite the bush tax cuts as playing a key role in spurring the economic crash. kaine puts it even more starkly than clinton. the clinton campaign tried to suggest income inequality, exacerbated by tax cuts, led to the stagnation of the middle class and spurred excess borrowing and leverage <u+2014> key components of the crash along with lax regulation. but that<u+2019>s a real stretch, given that a<u+00a0>housing bubble was the key trigger. the causes of the great recession are complex and debatable, but there<u+2019>s no debate that it<u+00a0>is wrong to put the bush tax cuts at the top of the list. this isn<u+2019>t a direct quote about deporting all undocumented immigrants, but trump did say that all <u+201c>criminal illegal immigrants<u+201d> (likely referring to undocumented immigrants convicted of a crime) <u+201c>are going to be gone. it will be over.<u+201d> among other claims trump made at the aug. 31 phoenix rally about removing those here illegally: but trump<u+00a0>also laid out his deportation priorities during the speech. among them:<u+00a0>targeting<u+00a0>at least 5 million and as many as 6.5 million undocumented immigrants who would be subject to swift removal. that is about half of the 11 million undocumented people estimated to be living in the united states. pence misconstrued an<u+00a0>associated press report here, similar to the way donald trump did earlier in the campaign. the ap analyzed state department records and looked specifically at clinton<u+2019>s meetings on the phone or in person with 154 people who were not federal employees or foreign government representatives. this narrowed down the denominator to a small subcategory of people clinton met with as secretary of state, since the majority of her diplomatic work would involve representatives of foreign governments. in addition, the ap report<u+00a0>is based on partial records released by the state department so far and does not reflect the full scope of people with whom clinton met as secretary of state. the ap found that 85 of those 154 people, or <u+201c>more than half,<u+201d> had donated to the clinton foundation or <u+201c>pledged commitments to its international programs.<u+201d> the 85 donors collectively contributed as much as $156 million, the ap reported. there were representatives from at least 16 foreign governments, who donated as much as $170 million to the charity, but those representatives were not included in the 154 number, the ap reported. this is wrong. counting from january 2009, nearly 11 million private-sector jobs have been created in the united states, according to the bureau of labor statistics. if you count all jobs, including government jobs, the figure is 10.5 million. so how does kaine come up with 15 million? he<u+2019>s counting from the low point for jobs in obama<u+2019>s presidency, february 2010. when you start the clock from then, the tally is 15 million private-sector jobs and 14.8 million overall jobs. the last time we checked, february 2010 was 6 1/2 years ago. so with this claim, kaine is trying to wipe off a year of obama<u+2019>s presidency. moreover, as a general matter, regular readers know that we tend to discount job-creation records by a president, as so much of the record is due to economic forces beyond a president<u+2019>s control. mark zandi, a respected economist at moody<u+2019>s analytics, did issue a report saying that if trump<u+2019>s economic plans were fully implemented, 3.5 million jobs would disappear, incomes would stagnate, debt would explode, and stock prices would plummet. (this compares to an anticipated increase of 6 million jobs under current obama administration policies.) in another report, zandi also said that if clinton were able to fully implement her economic plans, the economy would create an additional 3.2 million jobs during the first four years of her presidency. combined with anticipated job creation under current law, that adds up to 10.4 million jobs. but both reports were highly skeptical that either candidate would be able to get their plans through congress <u+2014> even a republican-controlled one during a trump presidency <u+2014> because so many of trump<u+2019>s positions are such a departure from gop<u+00a0>principles. even so, the report said the u.s. economy would likely suffer under a trump presidency. (the report was issued in june, and moody<u+2019>s has not issued an updated report that would reflect additional policies announced by trump, including a revised tax plan. but the report said trump<u+2019>s trade policies would be especially damaging.) pence makes it sound like this is u.s. taxpayer money <u+2014> and he uses a too-high estimate. because of international sanctions over its nuclear program, iran had billions of dollars in assets that were frozen in foreign banks around the globe. with sanctions lifted, in theory, those funds would be unlocked. but the treasury department has estimated that once iran fulfills other obligations, it would have about $55 billion left. (much of the other money was obligated to illiquid projects in china.) for its part, the central bank of iran said the number was actually $32 billion, not $55 billion. trump has called the north atlantic treaty organization obsolete, but he has not said he wants to get rid of it. asked specifically by the washington post in march if he wanted to pull out of nato, he said, <u+201c>i<u+00a0>don<u+2019>t want to pull it out. nato was set up at a different time. nato was set up when we were a richer country. we<u+2019>re not a rich country anymore. <u+2026> i think nato as a concept is good, but it is not as good as it was when it first evolved.<u+201d> trump has argued that <u+201c>distribution of costs<u+201d> has to be changed but, as we have noted, trump frequently overstates the burden on the united states. kaine is referring to trump<u+2019>s 2000 book, <u+201c>the america we deserve,<u+201d> where he made such a comparison about social security and said he wanted to privatize the program: <u+201c>the workers of america have been forced to invest a sixth of our wages into a huge ponzi scheme. the pyramids are made of paper-mache.<u+201d> trump added in the book: <u+201c>privatization would be good for all of us. as it stands today, 13.6 percent of women on social security live in poverty.<u+201d> but that book was published 16 years ago. on the campaign trail, trump has said he wants to <u+201c>keep social security intact.<u+2026> i<u+2019>m not going to cut it.<u+201d> his specific plans for the program, however, are vague. his campaign has said <u+201c>the key to preserving social security and other programs that benefit aarp members is to have an economy that is robust and growing.<u+201d> for more on social security and allegations it is a ponzi scheme, see the fact checker<u+2019>s guide to critical questions about the program. this is a zombie claim that just won<u+2019>t go away. we have awarded it three pinocchios, and fact checkers repeatedly debunked this during the 2012 presidential election. indeed, the number of ships (272) as of oct. 4 is the lowest count since 1916 (245 ships). but a lot has changed in 100 years, including the need and capacity of ships. after all, it<u+2019>s now a matter of modern nuclear-powered fleet carriers versus the gunboats and small warships of 100 years ago. the push for ships under the reagan era (to build the navy up to 600-ship levels) no longer exists, and ships from that era are now retiring. this talking point is a poor way to depict the country<u+2019>s naval fleet needs. gunboats of 1915 and aircraft carriers of 2015 are not the same. and military budgets, fleet needs and historical circumstances are much different in 2015 than they were in 1916. pence reprises a gop talking point from the 2012 campaign, but it<u+2019>s not correct. obama substituted a different system, but it was on the recommendation of then-defense secretary robert gates, a republican. gates, in fact, had recommended the original plan to president george w. bush and then decided the new system implemented by obama was more effective, less costly and timelier than the bush plan. gates, in his 2013 memoir, noted that while the obama administration had stumbled in failing to lay the diplomatic groundwork for the shift, looking <u+201c>like a bunch of bumbling fools,<u+201d> the bush plan was already running into trouble in both prague and warsaw and likely would have been rejected by parliaments in both countries. <u+201c>the polish and czech governments were relieved,<u+201d> he wrote. <u+201c>i sincerely believed the new program was better <u+2014> more in accord with the political realities in europe and more effective against the emerging iranian threat,<u+201d> gates added. <u+201c>while there certainly were some in the state department and the white house who believed the third site in europe was incompatible with the russian <u+2018>reset,<u+2019> we in defense did not. making the russians happy wasn<u+2019>t exactly on my to-do list.<u+201d> in fact, gates says, the russians quickly concluded that the obama plan was even worse from their perspective, as it eventually might have capabilities that could be used against russian intercontinental missiles. <u+201c>how ironic that u.s. critics of the new approach had portrayed it as a big concession to the russians,<u+201d> gates added sardonically. <u+201c>it would have been nice to hear a critic in washington <u+2014> just once in my career <u+2014> say, well i got that wrong.<u+201d> trump has walked back the particular claim that kaine cites, that <u+201c>wages are too high.<u+201d> of course, trump has flip-flopped on the minimum wage at least five times since august 2015 and has consistently contradicted his own statements, making it hard to track exactly where he stands on the issue at a given time. trump<u+2019>s stance on this matter, as of august 2016, was that he supports <u+201c>raising it to $10 at the federal level, but believes states should set the minimum wage as appropriate for their state.<u+201d> during a november 2015 republican primary debate, trump was asked whether he was <u+201c>sympathetic to the protesters<u+2019> cause since a $15 wage works out to about $31,000 a year.<u+201d> his full answer, with the part kaine is quoting in bold: days later, trump clarified he was referring to whether he would increase the minimum wage. he would not raise it, because then it would be <u+201c>too high,<u+201d> he said. kaine correctly notes that pence, as a congressman, voted in 2007 against raising the minimum wage above $5.15. pence made this claim in the context of abortion and choosing whether to be for or against abortion rights. but polling does not support this. in fact, it shows young adults<u+2019> views on abortion rights are about the same as their elders <u+2014><u+00a0>unlike issues like marijuana and gay marriage, where young people are more liberal. among adults aged 18 to 29, 58 percent said abortion should be legal in all or most<u+00a0>cases, and 39 percent said it should be illegal in all or most cases, according to a 2014 pew research center poll. that was similar to those aged 30 to 49 (59 percent supported abortion, 38 percent opposed) and those aged 50 to 64 (56 percent supported, 37 percent opposed). <u+201c>partial-birth abortion<u+201d> is usually used to refer to later-term abortions using a specific fetus-extraction method. clinton has said she supports a ban on late-term abortions, including partial-birth abortions, as long as the health and the life of the mother are protected. as senator, clinton opposed the partial-birth abortion act of 2003, which did not include a health exception. earlier this year, clinton again said she is <u+201c>on record in favor of a late pregnancy regulation that would have exceptions for the life and health of the mother.<u+201d> trump has, indeed, said that countries such as south korea, japan and saudi arabia should have nuclear weapons because nuclear proliferation is inevitable. trump has said that countries like japan and south korea would be <u+201c>better off<u+201d> if they were armed with nuclear weapons, in order to defend themselves from north korea. and trumps said he considers nuclear weapons a last resort, though he would not <u+201c>rule anything out<u+201d> regarding their use. for example, during a cnn town hall in march, trump was asked: <u+201c>so if you said, japan, yes, it<u+2019>s fine, you get nuclear weapons, south korea, you as well, and saudi arabia says we want them, too?<u+201d> trump answered: <u+201c>can i be honest with you? it<u+2019>s going to happen, anyway. it<u+2019>s going to happen anyway. it<u+2019>s only a question of time. they<u+2019>re going to start having them or we have to get rid of them entirely. but you have so many countries already, china, pakistan, you have so many countries, russia, you have so many countries right now that have them.<u+201d> this is an odd, inaccurate comment. the russia-georgia war took place in 2008, when clinton was still a u.s. senator. bush<u+2019>s secretary of state, condoleezza rice, lodged the protests. whatever diplomatic pressure the bush team had put on russia over georgia was abandoned when president obama was elected and the administration decided to pursue the ill-fated <u+201c>reset.<u+201d> kaine gets this right, as pence repeated a false claim that is popular on the right. the clinton foundation does not dole out grants, like a typical foundation, but instead directs the donations it raises directly for specified charitable activities. so simply only looking at the grants does not tell the whole story about the foundation<u+2019>s activities. the american institute of philanthropy<u+2019>s <u+201c>charity watch<u+201d> gives the clinton foundation an <u+201c>a<u+201d> rating for its efficiency (the top rating is a+). it says the foundation spends 88 percent of its expenses on programs and 12 percent on overhead. it also says the clinton foundation spends just $2 to raise $100. send us facts to check by filling out this form check out our guide to all trump and clinton fact checks sign up for the fact checker weekly newsletter

fact-checking the vice-presidential debate between kaine and pence

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there has been a lot of weight placed in libertarian expectations and hopes for the results for gary johnson next tuesday in terms of getting 5 percent nationally, which will make the party's next presidential candidate eligible for a category of federal election funds. while saying things both concise and accurate about ballot access laws in america, which vary state by state in this here federal union, is difficult, you have often heard, including from gary johnson himself, that getting that 5 percent will help the party with ballot access as well. technically, the national result, whatever it is, in and of itself has no effect at all on ballot access anywhere but georgia. (there, a 20 percent result nationally wins petition-free access.) every other state's ballot access laws, if vote percents affect them at all, are dictated only by the percentages gained in that state. that said, under most imaginable circumstances a national 5 percent will mean that the party also did historically well in lots of individual states also. what follows, derived from this state-by-state chart from the invaluable ballot access news edited by richard winger, is a list of what the libertarian party will get in terms of automatic, petition-free ballot access if certain vote percentages in that state are hit. a huge proportion of the libertarian party's time and effort goes to petitioning for access, so these accomplishments are a big deal for small parties. it's important to note that any such earned automatic ballot access is not eternal, and in many cases applies only to the next election, 2018, not even to the next presidential election. below i specify which states get that access for just 2018 or for both 2018 and 2020. again, all these vote percentages are in the states in question, not national. in almost all cases, it is not just the presidential ticket hitting this percentage that wins the prize, but any office the entire state is voting for. thus, the party can re-win the access in 2018 for 2020 with any office voted on statewide, even though there is not a presidential race in 2018. now, the percentages and what they get the party, and where: <u+2022> 0.5 percent gets the libertarian party full ballot access without need to spend time and money on petitioning for 2018 in michigan and new mexico. <u+2022> 1 percent gets the libertarian party full ballot access without need to spend time and money on petitioning for 2018 in kansas, maryland, nevada, and wisconsin. it would earn such access in both 2018 and 2020 in oregon. it would earn such access only for the president slot in 2020 in connecticut. <u+2022> 2 percent gets the libertarian party full ballot access without need to spend time and money on petitioning for 2018 in iowa. it would earn such access in both 2018 and 2020 in kentucky, missouri, montana, north carolina, and utah. <u+2022> 2.5 percent gets the libertarian party full ballot access without need to spend time and money on petitioning for 2018 in oklahoma and washington d.c. [correction: d.c.'s standard technically is a hard 7,500 votes, which tends to be around that percentage.] <u+2022> 3 percent gets the libertarian party full ballot access without need to spend time and money on petitioning for 2018 in arkansas, idaho, and massachusetts. it would earn such access in both 2018 and 2020 in ohio. [correction: since johnson is on the ohio ballot technically as an independent this year, not with the l.p. banner, it will be meaningless for ohio access, alas.] it would earn such access only for the president slot in 2020 in alaska. <u+2022> 5 percent gets the libertarian party full ballot access without need to spend time and money on petitioning for 2018 in north dakota, tennessee, and texas. it would earn such access in both 2018 and 2020 in arizona, louisiana, minnesota, [correction: minnesota was mistakenly left off in original post], nebraska, rhode island, and washington state. some states have even higher hurdles to jump for that state's vote totals for president (or other offices voted on statewide) to earn automatic ballot access, or other special cases. (election law is hard.) and a group of states give third parties no special ballot access benefits no matter how well the presidential candidate does. those states are: california, delaware, florida, indiana, mississippi, new hampshire, new jersey, new york, south carolina, south dakota, vermont, west virginia, and wyoming. five percent nationally would be an amazing thing for the johnson campaign and the libertarian party. but what really matters for ballot access moving forward is what happens state by state.

how gary johnson's vote percentages will affect libertarian party ballot access, state by state

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senate majority leader mitch mcconnell, r-ky., is bent on refusing to consider any nominee president obama may submit to succeed late supreme court justice antonin scalia. and if he doesn<u+2019>t give ground, obama may have only one option for an end-run: a recess appointment. but republicans can rest easy: gop leaders have an ace up their sleeve. the truth is, it doesn<u+2019>t take much to prevent a recess appointment, as long as congressional leaders are watching the calendar. closely. if you<u+2019>re trying to block the president from making one to the supreme court, all the senate has to do is commence a session every three days. because the senate is only truly in recess after that three-day period. the constitution actually requires the house and senate to meet every three days unless there<u+2019>s an agreement between the two bodies to skip, and go on recess. with the battle over a supreme court pick heating up, don<u+2019>t expect that to happen in the near future. all mcconnell and house speaker paul ryan, r-wis., have to do is schedule what are called <u+201c>pro-forma<u+201d> sessions at three-day intervals for the rest of the year. pro-forma sessions are brief meetings of the house and senate, lasting but a minute or two <u+2013> and sometimes, a matter of seconds. they help the house and senate comport with the constitutional mandate of huddling every three days <u+2013> even if they aren<u+2019>t really doing anything. the house and senate don<u+2019>t conduct any business during these confabs. in congressional parlance, they<u+2019>re sometimes referred to as just <u+201c>gavel-in, gavel-out.<u+201d> no votes. no speeches. few words are uttered at all. the phrase <u+201c>pro-forma<u+201d> is derived from latin, meaning <u+201c>formality.<u+201d> congress doesn<u+2019>t consider itself adjourned or on recess if it<u+2019>s <u+201c>meeting<u+201d> every three days. and that<u+2019>s all it takes to block a recess appointment for the rest of the president<u+2019>s term. in 2011 and 2012, democrats still controlled the senate. but republicans ran the show in the house. the gop-controlled house refused to agree to an adjournment resolution in an effort to block obama from scuttling a senate filibuster of his nominees to the national labor relations board (nlrb) and consumer financial protection bureau (cfpb). thus, the house and senate met every three days. in early 2012, the president made four recess appointments in the window between the three-day pro-forma sessions. but the supreme court later voided those appointments. the court said that was the<u+00a0>point<u+00a0>of the three-day sessions. the senate was indeed<u+00a0>in<u+00a0>session. the supreme court ruled 9-0 against the administration<u+2019>s brazen attempt to slip in appointments between the sessions every three days. ironically, scalia, chief justice john roberts and associate justices clarence thomas and samuel alito wrote a concurring opinion to the nlrb case. they argued <u+201c>that recess appointments will remain a powerful weapon in the president<u+2019>s arsenal.<u+201d> they added it was <u+201c>unfortunate because the recess power is an anachronism.<u+201d> when the roles were reversed, democrats used the same tool. for much of the final two years of president george w. bush<u+2019>s term, the democrat-controlled senate met every few days to block him from making a recess appointment. in 2003, senate republicans blasted minority democrats for holding up a number of judicial nominations. democrats had particular trouble with the nomination of judge bill pryor to the 11th<u+00a0>circuit court of appeals in georgia. democrats didn<u+2019>t like pryor<u+2019>s views on women<u+2019>s issues and homosexuality. so they filibustered pryor. during a summertime adjournment (not amid the three-day, pro-forma theater discussed here), bush went around the senate and appointed pryor without its advice and consent. democrats may try to force republicans to take that vote this summer, too. but republicans know that the best way to prevent a recess appointment later this year is to just meet every three days. capitol attitude is a weekly column written by members of the fox news capitol hill team. their articles take you inside the halls of congress, and cover the spectrum of policy issues being introduced, debated and voted on there.

republicans have a weapon to stop obama recess appointment

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president obama released a plan from the pentagon on tuesday that spelled out ways the united states can close the terrorist detention center at guantanamo bay, cuba, and send the detainees elsewhere, including to facilities in the united states. here are some of the key details about the plan and guantanamo. where could the detainees go in the united states? the plan says the pentagon team inspected 13 different facilities inside the united states that could accommodate the detainees, but it did not name the sites. even so, defense secretary ash carter and other officials have named several potential locations, starting with the military prison at fort leavenworth, kan., and the naval brig at charleston, s.c. "that does not mean those sites will be chosen," carter said last august. other potential sites include two prisons in colorado, including the federal high security prison in florence. convicted terrorists are already held in the florence prison, including zacarias moussaoui, the only person convicted in civilian court for the sept. 11, 2011, attacks; faisal shahzad, who tried to blow up a car bomb in new york's times square in 2010; and ramzi yousef, the mastermind of the 1993 bombing of new york's world trade center. elected officials from virtually every state with a facility that could house the guantanamo detainees have protested, saying that moving the detainees there could jeopardize the safety of their residents. why can't the president just close guantanamo? in the recent effort last december, congress approved a spending bill for 2016 that specifically bars<u+00a0>obama from closing the guantanamo bay detention facility or spending money on a new facility to house terrorists. obama signed the bill despite provisions he didn't like, such as those about guantanamo, to avoid a government shutdown. a defense authorization bill obama signed last year also included language prohibiting from closing guantanamo and moving the detainees. the plan released by obama tuesday was meant to show congress how the prison could be closed and how much it would cost. how many detainees remain in guantanamo? there are now 91 terrorist suspects remaining at the prison. of those, 35 have been identified as being eligible for transfer out of the prison and to other countries, the pentagon report said. at one time during the bush administration, there were almost 800 detainees at guantanamo. more than 500 were transferred by the previous administration and 147 by obama, pentagon documents show. where have the detainees gone? since oct. 1, 2014, pentagon records show, 58 detainees have been transferred to afghanistan, bosnia-herzegovina,<u+00a0>estonia, georgia, ghana,<u+00a0>kazakhstan, kuwait, mauritania, montenegro, morocco, oman, saudi arabia, slovakia, united kingdom and<u+00a0>uruguay. oman, a small nation on the persian gulf, has taken the most<u+00a0><u+2014> 20. who decides which detainees are eligible to leave? that work is done by the periodic review board, an interagency group including representatives from the pentagon, department of homeland security, justice department, state department, the<u+00a0>office of the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, and the office of the director of national intelligence. the board uses current intelligence and other information to determine if "the continued detention of the detainee remains necessary to protect against a continuing significant threat to the security of the united states," pentagon records show. the administration hopes to finish reviewing all detainees by this fall and to determine if any more are eligible for transfer.

5 key questions about shutting down gitmo

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flint, michigan (cnn) it was no republican debate -- nobody talked about the size of their hands or made up demeaning nicknames -- but hillary clinton and bernie sanders were ready for action sunday night. personal frustration peeked through as clinton unloaded new attacks on sanders over his opposition to the auto bailout and sanders portrayed clinton as a candidate straight out of wall street central casting. sunday was also '90s night, as the candidates essentially re-litigated major political battles of the era -- including nafta, the assault weapons ban and crime bill -- through modern eyes. the debate came two days before michigan's primary -- a key test of whether sanders can expand his appeal to a broader and more diverse electorate -- and was shaped by the concerns of voters in this city that is still struggling with a water crisis for which local, state and federal officials share the blame. here are five takeaways from sunday's debate: sanders waved, shouted, eye-rolled, baited and goaded his way through the debate. clinton laid into his opposition to the auto industry bailout. that measure was part of a broader rescue of the financial industry, a point sanders was only too happy to make by saying: "if you are talking about the wall street bailout, where some of your friends destroyed the economy <u+2014>" and then clinton said: "if you're going to talk, tell the whole story." sanders railed against the bailout, saying that he decided to "let the billionaires themselves bail out wall street -- it shouldn't be the middle class" -- when clinton tried to interject again. "could i finish? you'll have your turn," he said. he showed his frustration with clinton again later, saying: "can i finish, please? all right?" the exchange demonstrated a new level of comfort with the hand-to-hand combat of presidential campaigns. but it was also a risky move, making him sound potentially patronizing or dismissive of a candidate who could become the first female president. this from a candidate who entered the race bragging about never running a negative ad. sanders might keep their disputes focused on differences of policy -- but at times sunday night, it looked and sounded personal. when clinton was asked about fracking, she launched into a nuanced answer that gave credence to localities, state governments, and more. her bottom line: there wouldn't be many places where it would be ok under her. sanders had a much simpler answer. "no," he said. he doesn't support it. and he said he doesn't care about all the democratic governors who support it. this, in a nutshell, is the difference between them. she has nuanced positions that look at the breadth of opinion across the country. she's also keenly aware of the limitations of government, and strains to keep her positions within those limits -- part of what she calls her "responsibility gene." sanders has definitive positions that take a look at his ideology. that's the democrat's choice: nuance or no nuance. this same difference showed up when the two delved into the flint water crisis at the debate's outset. clinton's big move on stage -- her news-making comment at the debate's outset -- was one she'd resisted for months, arguing it was simplistic. but she went for it sunday night, saying she agrees with sanders in saying michigan gov. rick snyder needs to go. "i agree the governor should resign or be recalled," she said. "first thing you do is say, people are not paying a water bill for poison water. and that is retroactive," he said. so she readied an attack that sanders didn't seem prepared for, going at the vermont senator for opposing the auto bailout. "the money was there and had to be released in order to save the auto industry and 4 million jobs and to begin the restructuring," clinton said. "i voted to save the auto industry. he voted against the money that ended up saving the auto industry. i think that is a pretty big difference." then, she ticked off a list of states where she thinks that vote will hurt sanders. "given the terrible pressures that the auto industry was under and that the middle class of this state and ohio and indiana and illinois and wisconsin and missouri and other places in the midwest were facing, i think it was the right decision to heed what president-elect obama asked us to do," she said. "you were either for saving the auto industry or against it. i voted to save the auto industry and i'm very glad that i did." the damage was done: when clinton dropped the auto bailout bomb, the audience audibly ooooohed, highlighting the potency of that argument in the home of the u.s. auto industry. but he had his tone-deaf moments, sparking outrage on social media when he seemed to suggest that black people grow up poor and in ghettos and white people do not -- a particular eye-raiser because he'd been asked about his racial blind spots. "when you're white, you don't know what it's like to be living in a ghetto, you don't know what it's like to be poor," sanders said. for sanders, this is the central challenge facing his campaign. clinton blew him out across the south among african-americans, and sanders can't withstand her doing so again in big, midwestern states. michigan's march 8 primary will be a key test of whether sanders can win with a more diverse electorate. the following week -- when ohio, illinois, missouri, florida and north carolina vote -- will be his moment of truth. near the end of the debate, sanders also cracked a joke about boosting funding for mental health, saying that "when you watch these republican debates, you know why we need to invest in mental health." it was the right target (republicans) and the right audience (liberals) -- but perhaps the wrong topic, as he again risked appearing insensitive. one for the base the debate was a strong sign that both candidates still see room to gain or lose ground among liberal voters. they spent so much time jockeying to get to each other's left that there was virtually no talk of republicans at all. clinton and sanders defended government spending and intervention, teachers' unions, gun control, clean energy programs and efforts to fight climate change. they talked about a beefed-up role for the environmental protection agency. there was no talk about foreign policy, the deficit, entitlements -- subjects always front-and-center at republican debates. it's a clear sign that the sanders camp doesn't see the democratic nominating contest ending anytime soon, with liberal bastions like new york (which votes in april) and california (june) available as opportunities to rack up lots of delegates. increasingly, clinton is eyeing the general election on the campaign trail -- axing her usual shots at sanders from her stump speech, focusing on the economy and laying into republican front-runner donald trump. that wasn't apparent sunday night.

democratic debate: 5 takeaways

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kathmandu, nepal (cnn) the clamor and chaos of the previous day has dissipated by the time we arrive at kathmandu's only airport. the mad rush of 24 hours previously, in those first confusing, cacophonous hours following the 7.8-magnitude earthquake near the nepali capital, had died down. now, families sit, camped out, silent and patiently waiting, but for now abandoned. at the airport, at passport control, we meet a nepalese man, who is unable to contact his family. they live in a village 20 km from the epicenter. he also has two cousins on everest, he says. he has no way to reach any of them. stepping out of the terminal building, the devastation is apparent. it is an overwhelming introduction to this city that, less than 48 hours ago, was hit by the worst earthquake this country has experienced in 80 years. the death toll has skipped past 3,000 and climbs, inexorably. taking into account the fact that many rural areas, just as badly affected but isolated and vulnerable, have yet to be evaluated, the human cost is staggering. across town the bus station is a hive of activity as scores try urgently to leave the city, to make it out to the outlying areas so badly affected by this quake. communications are down and so many here are desperate to make it out to their stricken families, and discover their fate. the scene is repeated at every gas station; snaking lines of indian-made tata cars, and motorcycles, waiting to fill up. people are clambering aboard buses, into cars, trying to get as far away from this devastation as possible. remaining inside kathmandu, neighbors stare forlornly at their former homes, now collapsed piles of rubble. we visit a montessori school, mercifully empty as the children had the saturday off. a seven-story building behind it, however, was home to a small church, and housed a congregation of between 40 and 50 when tragedy occurred. the pastor's son nakul tamang clambers up a ladder, looking for an entrance into the ruined facade, looking to retrieve his father, not knowing if he will find him alive or dead. rescue teams stop him before he reaches the top. the building is not secure, but tamang doesn't care. "it's sad, it's hard," he says. six bodies had already been pulled from the concrete and steel wreckage. a nearby five-story structure has collapsed in on itself. it was pink, with wrought balconies. now it is pancaked, reduced to a third of its height and a mess of rubble and reinforced steel. one woman has been pulled out of the wreckage, and rescuers continue to work in a precarious hollow scooped out from the fallen bricks. officials tell the onlookers that there is a chance that survivors may have been protected in a corridor as the building came down around them. a day after the earthquake struck, they found a woman under the rubble. unhurt; in shock, but alive. it is this hope that keeps narayan gurung going: the belief that his wife and 7-year-old are still alive. "i raced here after the earthquake. i haven't slept for days," he says. workers dig painstakingly, slowly removing piles of stone and debris. they spot someone's hair, but can't yet reach the body or tell if it's male or female. wherever there is rubble in this city, there is a police or military presence. they are not necessarily commanding the digs but they keep onlookers from getting too close, or directing traffic as best they can. for their part, the onlookers look shell shocked -- there is little outpouring of grief, no sobbing or wailing, but rather a solemn, dazed, collective sense of disbelief. tundikhel park was, just two days ago, a vast, open green oasis in the city, but is now a mess of tents. some have made their own, the army is setting up others. metal bleacher-style seating has been set up, with dozens of people sitting, waiting, makeshift blue tarp tents pitched underneath. people bring in fresh fruit, and there are water sellers -- although clean bottled water is becoming hard to to find. people queue endlessly for food and water. there is a mobile government field hospital here, and those treated wait listlessly outside, a collection of crushed hands, broken legs, strapped ankles. one little boy was hit by a falling brick. "i felt something like a fire, and i ran, and then something hurt me a lot." he says. "i am still scared." and so is everybody else: those who survived clinging to those they love.

solemn, stupefied, families in kathmandu after earthquake

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just how big is the asia trade deal obama wants? it's a beast one of the most basic facts about the trans-pacific partnership is also the most important: it's huge. the trade deal got over a big hurdle friday when the senate voted in favor of giving the obama administration "fast-track" authority to negotiate the deal with canada and 10 asian nations. that leaves the u.s. house, and it's unclear it has the votes yet. if it passes, though, tpp, which has angered many in the president's party, would be by far the largest free trade agreement the u.s. has in effect. the 12 nations involved in tpp make up about 36 percent of global gross domestic product, or gdp, according to data from the international monetary fund. that sets the tpp well apart from the 14 free trade agreements the u.s. currently has in effect with 20 countries (to be fair, the u.s. accounts for nearly 23 percent of global gdp by itself). not only that, but these nations together account for about one-third of global trade, according to the brookings institution. so the tpp stands apart from other trade agreements in its size. but that's only one dimension of its impact. another way the tpp is gargantuan is tougher to quantify in a bar graph: its scope. it not only covers basic trade issues like tariffs, but also a variety of other areas like labor and environmental and intellectual property. the size and scope of tpp matter because they are at the center of the debate. the obama administration sees the deal's broad reach as positive <u+2014> the agreement, the administration says, will open up the u.s. to all kinds of new markets and business. agribusiness companies, for example, are excited about having new avenues for their products. the labor and environmental provisions, the administration also argues, will force other nations to up their game on those issues, "leveling the playing field." not only that, but the tpp's size is all the more important for the one economic superpower that isn't included in it: china. one of the administration's top arguments for the deal is that in negotiating tpp, it "writes the rules" for trade with a large swath of eastern asian countries before china can with its own trade agreements. but opponents, like sen. elizabeth warren, d-mass., worry about the sweep of the deal. leaked chapters have intellectual property advocates, like the electronic frontier foundation, worried it goes too far in areas like extending copyright laws and fair use rules. doctors without borders has also argued the deal could make for more expensive generic drugs, restricting access to medicine for some consumers. however, some wish the pact went further <u+2014> environmental groups like the sierra club, for example, believe the provisions won't do enough to address overfishing. but then, no one outside members of congress, negotiators and a small group of cleared individuals has access to the pact, so it's hard to know exactly how far it will (or won't) go. and that is perhaps the source of the most tension in the tpp debate: that such a big deal is being negotiated behind closed doors. if congress grants the administration fast-track (also known as trade promotion authority), it will mean two to four months for public comment before congress gives the deal an up-or-down vote, with no amendments or debate. the administration argues that this is unprecedented transparency for a trade deal. opponents, however, believe it would be too little, too late in what has now been a seven-year negotiating process.

just how big is the asia trade deal obama wants? it's a beast

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"today i was shown a piece of literature from the cruz for president campaign that misrepresents the role of my office, and worse, misrepresents iowa election law," paul pate, a republican, said in a statement saturday. the mailer gave the recipient, along with their neighbors, poor grades based on their individual voting history. on one side, the mailer reads: "election alert: voter violation," "public record" and "further action needed." the other side of the mailer says "voting violation" in red letters at the top before text that reads: "you are receiving this election notice because of low expected voter turnout in your area. your individual voting history as well as your neighbors' are public record. their scores are published below, and many of them will see your score as well. caucus on monday to improve your score and please encourage your neighbors to caucus as well. a follow-up notice may be issued following monday's caucuses." cruz campaign spokeswoman alice stewart confirmed to cnn that the mailer was from the cruz campaign. "accusing citizens of iowa of a "voting violation" based on iowa caucus participation, or lack thereof, is false representation of an official act," pate said in his statement. "there is no such thing as an election violation related to frequency of voting. any insinuation or statement to the contrary is wrong and i believe it is not in keeping in the spirit of the iowa caucuses." pate continued, "additionally, the iowa secretary of state's office never 'grades' voters. nor does the secretary of state maintain records related to iowa caucus participation," pate said. "also, the iowa secretary of state does not 'distribute' voter records. they are available for purchase for political purposes only, under iowa code." cruz, however, was defiant to reporters when asked about the mailer in sioux city, iowa, on saturday night. "i will apologize to no one for using every tool we can to encourage iowa voters to come out and vote," he said. the mailer comes as cruz is in a heated battle with gop front-runner donald trump in the critical first-in-the-nation voting state. a des moines register/bloomberg politics survey released saturday night found trump holding a slight lead in the hawkeye state, 28% to 23%. put the cnn election center to work on your device. get the cnn app.

iowa's secretary of state rips ted cruz over campaign mailer

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mitt romney's exit from the presidential campaign has unleashed a frenzy of fresh fundraising and set off a new race for the backing of donors who had remained loyal to the 2012 republican nominee. big dollars were said to flow immediately on friday to former florida gov. jeb bush, who already had won over several of romney's past donors. new jersey gov. chris christie claimed the support of others who were waiting on romney to make a decision about whether to seek the white house a third time. tony carbonetti, a christie supporter and top aide to former new york mayor rudy giuliani, a 2008 gop candidate, said every major republican donor got at least two calls on friday <u+2014> one from christie's people and one from those promoting bush. none of the republicans considering a run for president has formally entered the race. but most have established political committees that effectively serve as campaigns-in-waiting of varying sophistication. that step allows the politicians to raise money to pay for travel, staff and the logistics of getting ready to run for the white house. the competition for donors to those organizations is fierce, with commitments signaling the potential strength of a nascent campaign and laying the groundwork for more fundraising to come. romney raised more than $57 million before the first voting in 2012, and that figure is often cited as this campaign's benchmark. even before romney's announcement friday, bush had picked off several of romney's past supporters. among them was lisa wagner, a top midwest fundraiser for romney in 2012 who pushed hard to win over others friday. "i've raised a million dollars in the four hours since he announced that i otherwise would not have raised," she said. her converts included bill kunkler, part of chicago's wealthy crown family, who had been holding out for romney. "i'll work for jeb. period. and no one else," he said. christie had his own pickups. none was more significant than bobbie kilberg, a virginia-based fundraiser who said she and her husband were all-in for the former federal prosecutor. "we will support him financially and we will be bundlers for him," she told the associated press, referring to the practice of rounding-up donations from friends, family and colleagues for a campaign. ray washburne, the outgoing finance chairman of the republican national committee, has taken up the same position with christie's political action committee. washburne said his phone started ringing early friday. "it's been very, very positive. a lot of people that were kind of fence-sitters have come off the fence," he said. "we've been very, very encouraged." others were too upset or stunned by romney's announcement to decide what to do next. that includes bill simmons, a washington-based donor who raised money for both of romney's previous campaigns. "i haven't fully thought about the next step," he said. he said romney's announcement was like seeing his favorite team lose in the playoffs and then having to decide for whom to cheer in the super bowl. "i guess i'll watch the game a little bit." romney's flirtation with the race may have created space for a third candidate to compete alongside bush and christie for the support of establishment-minded donors and fundraisers. with his exit, there is now room for someone else to step into that spot. in the hours after romney's announcement, several gop donors said wisconsin gov. scott walker appeared to have the edge. the news came at the end of a big week for walker. he earned a standing ovation from a conservative crowd at a forum in iowa last saturday. the next day, he spoke to wealthy conservatives in california at an event organized by the billionaire brothers charles and david koch. walker ended the week in washington as the guest of wealthy republican donor fred malek. "walker fits into that mainstream group, and this means he's getting a lot of interest and attention lately," said republican consultant charlie black. so, too, might florida sen. marco rubio, who spent the week courting donors on the west coast, texas and chicago after attending the koch brothers' event. few donors interviewed after romney's announcement mentioned the several candidates likely to compete to the right of christie and bush. that group includes kentucky sen. rand paul, texas sen. ted cruz, former texas gov. rick perry and former arkansas gov. mike huckabee. "mitt was going to probably occupy a different place on the shelf than me," huckabee said. "i don't know that it has any impact on support, donors. it probably has a bigger impact on jeb bush and chris christie." south carolina political strategist warren tomkins warned against singling out any one candidate, or type of candidate, as the clear beneficiary of romney's decision. "it still goes back to having a good message and a good messenger," said tompkins, romney's south carolina campaign chairman in 2012. "if you've got that, then at some point you get momentum, and then the money will come."

romney's exit unleashes race for donors among 2016 hopefuls

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president obama nominated him for the post of us surgeon general, the nation's top spokesperson for public health, back in november 2013. the senate then promptly blocked his nomination for more than a year, particularly after the national rifle association criticized a letter murthy had co-signed in support of gun control measures. murthy<u+00a0>only got confirmed in december 2014 after some red-state democrats who were losing their seats anyway decided to switch course and back him. in person, however, it's harder to see how the mild-tempered murthy became such a lightning rod. he meditates daily, he told me, to "center myself, a chance for me to remember who i want to be every day." and he's starting his tenure with a listening tour that took him across america <u+2014> rather than a push for any particular policies. indeed, he has already said he wasn't interested in using his post "as a bully pulpit for gun control." before his swearing-in ceremony today, i spoke with murthy at length about what he sees as the biggest public health issues facing the country, what he hopes to achieve as surgeon general, and why the best ways to boost health may have nothing to do with medicine. the surgeon general is essentially the nation's top spokesperson on health matters. past officeholders have often used the position to call attention to pressing public health issues such as smoking or obesity. murthy plans to do the same. but though he's a physician by training, he argues that institutions outside of medicine often have the biggest impact on public health. "i first started thinking about that when i was practicing medicine," murthy says, "and i realized that i would sit in the clinic with patients or sit at their bedside, and talk to them about changing their diet, about improving their physical activity. i would question how much of an impact i was having on their ultimate decisions about their lifestyle. if you ask any doctor or nurse who has cared for patients, they will often tell you they have had similar experiences." "it<u+2019>s often our family and friends who can impact the choices we make around food" he elaborated: "if we think about ourselves, it<u+2019>s often our family and friends who can impact the choices we make around food. it<u+2019>s the food options that are available at work or in the cafeteria that might impact the choices we make during the third of our lives we spend at work. it can be what we hear in church sunday morning that impacts how we think about important issues in our society. "that<u+2019>s why i have come to believe if we are going to overcome the great health challenges our country faces right now, we have to do so with a coalition of leaders. this includes not only doctors, nurses, and health professionals but also our employers, schools, faith-based organizations, civic institutions, and the various people and institutions in our country that actually impact decisions people make day to day." take, for instance, the obesity crisis, which murthy has called one of his top priorities. he argues that it's not enough to engage doctors on this issue <u+2014> employers, faith-based organizations, and other institutions need to play a role, too. "i want to make sure i<u+2019>m working with employers to make physical activity a greater part of work culture <u+2014> recognizing that this not only has benefits for the physical health of employees but also positive effects on emotional well-being and mental function," he says. the same goes for mental health, which needs to be addressed by institutions outside of medicine. "i want to work with faith-based leaders to address the negative attitudes associated with mental illness," he explains. this, in general, fits with murthy's broader approach to public health: "we have to do more than build hospitals and more clinics. we have to invest in prevention and community prevention, and recognize that institutions that don<u+2019>t have the word health in their name <u+2014> faith-based groups, employers, schools <u+2014> have a massive impact on the health decisions people make every day. that's why we have to engage these institutions in doing their part to improve health." so how does murthy focus on staying healthy? "i have four rules i follow for myself," he says. "one is to eat healthy. i tend to avoid salt, added sugar, and processed foods whenever possible, and try to eat fresh fruits and vegetables as part of all my meals whenever possible. "second is to stay physically active. that means not just going to gym but incorporating activity into whatever i do, whether that<u+2019>s taking the stairs or converting sitting meetings to walking meetings whenever possible. "third is making sure i<u+2019>m focusing on my emotional and mental well-being. for me, an important part of that is the meditation practice that i do every morning. it<u+2019>s a chance for me to center myself, a chance for me to remember who i want to be every day. "the fourth thing is i remind myself to stay away from toxic substances like tobacco and drugs." the surgeon general doesn't just promote public health. from his perch, murthy will also likely have to play a role in combating misinformation. i asked him about dr. oz, arguably the most famous health proselytizer in america, who has come under fire for his use of pseudoscience. "i have never actually watched dr. oz on tv so i can<u+2019>t really comment," murthy says. "too often, doctors and nurses don<u+2019>t speak out when it<u+2019>s needed the most" but murthy does agree that the public often faces a problem in sorting through all the health information out there: "in general, when people think about diet and physical activity, there<u+2019>s a lot of information out there, and it can be very confusing for people. that's why i think it<u+2019>s very important for us to understand the science behind the recommendations we make around diet and physical activity." he adds, "i have been on the road a lot these last few months. one of the things that came up time and again was the pervasive misinformation that exists around certain hot-button issues. diet is one of them. in recent months, in light of the measles outbreak, there has also been some confusion around vaccinations. that was an issue i spoke about a lot on the road, helping people understand that when it comes to the measles vaccine it's both safe and effective, and there's no link to autism." so what's murthy's role in all this? "i will continue to make sure we are getting scientifically grounded messages out there to the public about questions that concern them the most," he says. "but it's not just the responsibility of the surgeon general but of every public health professional who understands science, who is trained to evaluate evidence, and who knows the cost we incur when patients are misinformed about the treatments they need. "too often, doctors and nurses don<u+2019>t speak out when it<u+2019>s needed the most <u+2014> when there are controversies around issues, whether it be vaccines or e-cigarettes or other health topics. they can not only answer questions that the public may have but also push our institutions and policymakers and leaders to find answers when we don<u+2019>t have them." murthy's mention of e-cigarettes brought up a related question. e-cigarettes are one of the biggest puzzles facing the medical community right now, since the science behind them is still so nascent. so how does he think about the issue? "our scientific understanding of e-cigarettes has been far outpaced by the actual use of e-cigarettes" "our scientific understanding of e-cigarettes has been far outpaced by the actual use of e-cigarettes," murthy says. "this means people are asking questions we don<u+2019>t always know the answers to. some of those questions are: do e-cigarettes have adverse effects on health? do they lead children to be more open to smoking regular cigarettes? and do they help with cessation for people who are current smokers? these are questions we haven<u+2019>t adequately answered yet through research <u+2014> but we have to do so because, as a recent cdc report showed, e-cigarettes use tripled over the last year among youth. that to me is very concerning when we don<u+2019>t fully understand the potential adverse impacts of e-cigarettes." he continues, "should we promote or allow the use of e-cigarettes by minors and by people who don<u+2019>t smoke at all? this is where i'm concerned. we know nicotine is not a benign substance. we know it has potential harmful effects on the body including the development of the adolescent brain. speaking as a regular person, i would not want my children <u+2014> if i were blessed enough to have children <u+2014> to be exposed to nicotine unnecessarily, whether that<u+2019>s through their smoking of e-cigarettes or traditional cigarettes or whether that was through secondhand vapor or smoke." in april, murthy did a public service announcement on sesame street to remind kids to get vaccinated. can we expect more of that in the future? "the public service announcement we did with elmo around vaccines was just one example of the different types of communication tools we want to use to make sure we<u+2019>re getting the right message to kids and adults about health," murthy said. "but to make sure we<u+2019>re reaching everybody <u+2014> to use a variety of messengers, messages, channels. we have to be creative about how we do it. "when it comes to obesity, thinking about nutrition, i want to work closely with our entertainment leaders and our leaders in sports to make sure we<u+2019>re setting positive role models for kids in particular when it comes to choices around physical activity and nutrition. "

the new surgeon general's 4 rules for health

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with just 59 days remaining until election day, democratic presidential candidate hillary clinton is still facing questions - and attacks - over her email controversy. her republican opponent donald trump took shots at her over the issue thursday while speaking in cleveland. "remember, hillary clinton was emailing about the drone program among many other extremely sensitive matters. this is yet more evidence that clinton is unfit to be your commander in chief," the business mogul charged. clinton has claimed that she didn't send or receive any email with classified marking, but a new report from fox news says that a clinton email had classified markings on virtually every paragraph. meanwhile, clinton talked freely about her faith to the national baptist convention, the oldest african-american baptist denomination. "sometimes people ask me, are you a praying person? and i tell them, 'if i wasn't one before, one week living in the white house or on the campaign trail would've turned me into a praying person," she said in kansas city, missouri, thursday, clinton's lead over trump has been dropping in the polls in recent days. but the race will, as always, come down to the electoral college, especially in the swing states -- and the polls show the race getting tighter in four of the key states. in a new quinnipiac poll that also includes the two independent candidates, trump has a slight lead in ohio, but is tied with clinton in florida. the former secretary of state, however, holds slim leads in pennsylvania and north carolina. while clinton still appears to be ahead in the electoral college, the campaign is far from over. both candidates are likely to focus the last two months of the campaign on the battleground states, where the race will almost certainly be decided.

how clinton's email controversy is affecting her campaign

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police in waco, tex., said monday they had arrested 170 people after a shootout involving multiple biker gangs at a<u+00a0>restaurant that left at least nine people dead. while investigators worked to piece together precisely what happened on sunday,<u+00a0>authorities said they remained alert after receiving threats of<u+00a0>possible retaliation against police officers after<u+00a0>the chaotic brawl. the sea of people arrested were charged with engaging in organized criminal activity, which is a capital murder charge due to the number of victims,<u+00a0>sgt. w. patrick swanton, a waco police spokesman, said at a news conference monday. <u+201c>there was a significant danger here yesterday because<u+00a0>of the amount<u+00a0>of violence that occurred behind us here,<u+201d> swanton said while standing in front of the restaurant. the spasm of deadly violence began when members of biker gangs began fighting inside the restroom of twin peaks, a restaurant in a retail strip on<u+00a0>interstate 35 known to locals as<u+00a0>a biker bar. in addition to firearms, the<u+00a0>fighting involved fists, feet, knives and chains, officials said. swanton said that gunfire began inside the restaurant before spilled out onto the<u+00a0>patio bar area and then into<u+00a0>the parking lot. several shooting victims were found near the front of the restaurant or in the parking lot around it, he said. <u+201c>we had wounded inside, we had people stabbed, we had people shot and we had people beat,<u+201d> swanton said. there were already 18 police officers and another four officers from the state department of public safety in the parking lot because officials<u+00a0>had received information about the danger posed by these gangs being in the same place, swanton said. once outside, the bikers turned their gunfire on the police officers who responded, he said. <u+201c>those officers<u+2019> reactions<u+2026>to a very hostile, deadly situation saved our citizens<u+2019> lives yesterday afternoon,<u+201d> swanton said. after the fighting, authorities said that nine people had been killed, and remarkably no police officers or other bystanders in the area had been injured. the 170 people taken into custody were initially taken to the city<u+2019>s convention center for processing before being brought to the mclennan county jail, which was still working to process all of these individuals on monday. police originally said 192 people were arrested,<u+00a0>but swanton revised that number on monday and said it was possible the number could still change as they continued to sift through all of the names. the jail, located about 15 minutes away from the retail strip where the shootings occurred, was still working monday morning to process all of the people who had been arrested, an official said. authorities continued to investigate the area around the twin peaks restaurant on monday. more than 100 motorcycles and dozens of other vehicles remained in the parking lot. <u+201c>we<u+2019>re not in a rush,<u+201d> swanton said. <u+201c>this is obviously a very large investigation<u+00a0>involving numerous agencies and organizations, and we<u+2019>re<u+00a0>going to get it right.<u+201d> [police: restaurant has some answering to do] swanton said police have received information<u+00a0>about <u+201c>payback<u+201d> against officers and reports of bikers flooding into the area after the shooting. as a result, he said officers have been stationed around the region to watch for any threat. <u+201c>there was a green light put out on law enforcement is our understanding from last night,<u+201d> he said monday. <u+201c>we<u+2019>re aware of that threat, and we have the appropriate response if we have to face that.<u+201d> the brawl occurred on sunday at noon at the<u+00a0>sports bar, with violence erupting and sending terrified patrons diving for cover in a busy central texas shopping center. swanton<u+00a0>was<u+00a0>critical of the restaurant, saying after the shootout that its management has <u+201c>not been of much assistance to us.<u+201d> it was typical to see motorcycles parked outside of twin peaks, said<u+00a0>saul cornejo bravo, 19, a server at a<u+00a0>mexican restaurant next door. <u+201c>but not that many, especially on a sunday afternoon,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>usually i see them there later at night.<u+201d> bravo said that he was working on sunday when the shooting occurred, and within seconds he saw emergency vehicles flooding the parking lot. he saw one man wearing a biker<u+2019>s vest<u+00a0>who appeared to have been shot in the stomach. paramedics tried to perform cpr for several minutes, bravo said. <u+201c>then they<u+00a0>just covered him up,<u+201d> he said. off-duty police officers shopping in the retail strip<u+00a0>rushed to the scene despite lacking any protective gear, swanton said. meanwhile, some of the people who ran away from twin peaks as the chaos unfolded took shelter behind an empty building. <u+201c>we sat there gathering our wits,<u+201d> said j.r., who works at cabela<u+2019>s outpost, an outdoors store across the parking lot from twin peaks. <u+201c>at first you think it<u+2019>s like a carjacking or something. but then, with all the shots and people running you realize it<u+2019>s something more serious.<u+201d> police said in a statement monday said the twin peaks restaurant and parking lot were <u+201c>still a very active crime scene<u+201d> <u+2014> one that <u+201c>is littered with bullets, blood and other evidence. civilian as well as police units with bullet holes remain to be processed.<u+201d> parts of central texas market place, where the twin peaks sports bar is located, were expected to remain closed for the day, police said. five known gangs were believed to be involved in the brawl, swanton said, but he would not identify them on monday. <u+201c>i am not about to give them the respect of mentioning their names<u+2026>. we don<u+2019>t care what their names are, and we<u+2019>re not going to give them publicity,<u+201d> he said. swanton said it was still not clear how many shots were fired by gang members or police. it was unclear whether any of the nine bikers killed in the fight<u+00a0>were shot by police. <u+201c>it was chaos,<u+201d> said j.r., who declined to give his last name. <u+201c>people were screaming and going crazy. most of it seemed to be in the parking lot, and it was over very quickly.<u+201d> all of the people charged with organized crime activity will face a capital murder charge, swanton said, due to the number of people killed sunday. texas state law says that a person who murders more than one other person <u+201c>during the same criminal transaction<u+201d> can face this charge, while<u+00a0> suspects can be charged with organized criminal activity if they carry out a murder or capital murder as part of a criminal street gang. eighteen people were taken to hospitals after the brawl with<u+00a0>injuries that included stab and gunshot wounds, swanton said. some victims were being treated for both, he told reporters in central texas on sunday. <u+201c>i was amazed that we didn<u+2019>t have innocent civilians killed or injured,<u+201d> swanton said, according to the associated press, which noted: mclennan county sheriff parnell mcnamara said all nine who were killed were members of the bandidos or cossacks gangs, according to the ap. a threat assessment released last year by the texas department of public safety classified the bandidos gang in the second-highest tier threat. the department of justice lists the bandidos as one of the handful of organized motorcycle gangs that <u+201c>pose a serious national domestic threat.<u+201d> [how the bandidos became one of the world<u+2019>s most feared biker gangs] for some in the region, they could sense rising friction between the different motorcycle gangs when members were at the same bars and restaurants. <u+201c>there were these little tiffs going on, and then you add alcohol,<u+201d> said richard, a motorcycle enthusiast who also declined to give his last name. <u+201c>i just felt like there was tension.<u+201d> he said biker had activity had increased in and around waco in the last few years, probably because of its proximity to both the dallas-fort worth area and austin. <u+201c>ninety nine percent of of the people who ride bikes are good people, doctors, lawyer, engineers,<u+201d> said richard, an engineer. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s the one percent that don<u+2019>t care about anything. they say, <u+2018>we<u+2019>ll do what we do.<u+2019> it was a rude awakening for the rest of us. is this going to land on our doorsteps? is this what we have to look forward to? what happens if we<u+2019>re wearing the wrong shirt in the wrong neighborhood? that<u+2019>s what has a lot of us worried.<u+201d> on sunday, witnesses described seeing a mass shootout that involved dozens of of guns being fired inside the restaurant and in the parking lot along interstate 35,<u+00a0>according to cbs affiliate kwtx. the station reported that panicked patrons and employees sought refuge from the mayhem in the restaurant freezer. hours later, authorities from multiple law enforcement agencies <u+2014> including local and state police, and the federal bureau of alcohol, tobacco, firearms and explosives <u+2014> were still trying to secure the area and survey the large crime scene, which was littered with more than 100 weapons. <u+201c>in 34 years of law enforcement, this is the most violent crime scene i have ever been involved in,<u+201d> swanton said, according to the waco tribune-herald.<u+00a0><u+201c>there is blood everywhere. we will probably approach the number of 100 weapons.<u+201d> swanton called it <u+201c>one of the worst gun fights we<u+2019>ve ever had in the city limits. they started shooting at our officers.<u+201d> the officers returned fire, swanton said, and some armed bikers were shot by police. swanton defended the officers<u+2019> actions and said they prevented more deaths. <u+201c>their action has saved lives in keeping this from spilling into a very busy sunday morning,<u+201d> he said, according to cnn. <u+201c>thank goodness the officers were here, and took the action that they needed to take to save numerous lives.<u+201d> authorities said it was not immediately clear what precisely triggered the violence, but the potential for conflict did not surprise the twin peaks staff or officers. mclennan county district attorney abel reyna told the ap that tensions between the gangs had been building for months. police were bracing for violence: swanton said waco police officers and state officers were at the sports bar when the fighting began and that they had secured the area because they <u+201c>expected issues.<u+201d> he said the restaurant<u+2019>s management requested the officers in anticipation of trouble. <u+201c>we have been made aware in the last few months of rival biker gangs <u+2014> rival criminal biker gangs <u+2014> being here and causing issues,<u+201d> swanton said. <u+201c>we have attempted to work with the local management of twin peaks to get that cut back, to no avail. they have not been of much assistance to us.<u+201d> jay patel, operating partner for the twin peaks franchise in waco, said in a statement sunday: <u+201c>we are horrified by the criminal, violent acts that occurred outside of our waco restaurant today. we share in the community<u+2019>s trauma. our priority is to provide a safe and enjoyable environment for our customers and employees, and we consider the police our partners in doing so.<u+201d> patel added that <u+201c>our management team has had ongoing and positive communications with the police and <u+2026> we will continue to cooperate with the police as they investigate this terrible crime.<u+201d> swanton called patel<u+2019>s statement a <u+201c>fabrication,<u+201d> according to the ap, which reported that the waco police <u+201c>described the management as uncooperative with authorities in addressing concerns about the gangs.<u+201d> <u+201c>are we frustrated? sure,<u+201d> swanton said, according to cnn. <u+201c>because we feel like there may have been more that could have been done by a business to prevent this.<u+201d> police said monday that the texas alcoholic beverage commission <u+201c>is implementing a summary suspension closing twin peaks for at least 7 days. this is not a punitive action on tabc<u+2019>s part but done due to the ongoing danger it presents to our community.<u+201d> cbs affiliate kwtx reported that the twin peaks corporate office canceled the waco store<u+2019>s franchise agreement on monday. <u+201c>we are in the people business and the safety of the employees and guests in our restaurants is priority one,<u+201d> the company said in a statement, according to kwtx. <u+201c>unfortunately the management team of the franchised restaurant in waco chose to ignore the warnings and advice from both the police and our company, and did not uphold the high security standards we have in place to ensure everyone is safe at our restaurants. <u+201c>we will not tolerate the actions of this relatively new franchisee and are revoking their franchise agreement immediately. our sympathies continue to be with the families of those who died and are very thankful no employees, guests, police officers or bystanders were hurt or injured.<u+201d> a witness who had just finished lunch at a nearby restaurant told kwtx that he and his family walked into the parking lot when they heard multiple gunshots and saw wounded people being removed from the scene. <u+201c>we crouched down in front of our pickup truck because that was the only cover we had,<u+201d> said the man, who asked not to be identified. another witness, michelle logan, told the tribune-herald: <u+201c>there were maybe 30 guns being fired in the parking lot, maybe 100 rounds. they just opened fire. <u+2026> there<u+2019>s a lot of people in the hospital, a lot of people shot.<u+201d> vehicles parked near the restaurant were riddled with bullet holes, the newspaper noted. headquartered in dallas, twin peaks is a casual dining chain with dozens of locations nationwide that employs a largely female staff scantily clad in plaid shirts and mini shorts. <u+201c>twin peaks girls,<u+201d> the company advertises, offer customers <u+201c>signature <u+2018>girl next door<u+2019> charisma and playful personalities.<u+201d> the waco location opened in august and was touted by a company spokesman as offering 24 types of beer and 55 flatscreen tvs, as well as <u+201c>bike night<u+201d> on thursdays. <u+201c>get revved up and ready to go at twin peaks bike night,<u+201d> a calendar on the twin peaks waco web site advertised. holley, du lac and berman reported from washington. madigan reported from waco. [this post, originally published on may 17, has been updated multiple times.]

police say 170 arrested in deadly biker gang shootout at texas restaurant

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reporter: mr. president, when did you first learn that hillary clinton used an email system outside the u.s. government for official business when she was secretary of state? potus: the same time as everybody else, through news reports. on sunday, president obama insisted he knew nothing about hillary clinton and her use of a separate server to send email while serving as his secretary of state for four years, and learned about it through news reports along with the rest of us. how many times have we seen this movie? how many times has this administration been confronted with a scandal only to have the president or his spokesmen make this statement with straight faces? it makes you wonder: what goes on behind the scenes that results in these whoppers? since this administration lives in a fantasy land, let's imagine scenes of our own: rg: mr. president, we're so very sorry to interrupt your game -- potus, staring at vpotus, irritated: why are you here? rg: sir, it looks like that air force one photo-op over manhattan almost caused a massive panic. we need a response from you. potus: joe, can't you handle this? vpotus: it's your plane, sir. mine was flying over pittsburgh and no one noticed. rg: we have your talking points, sir. just tell the press, "it was a mistake. it was something we found out about along with all of you." potus: fine. now get lost, both of you. that scenario may be fictional -- but those were, in fact, the very words obama used. march 22, 2011, 11:15 am. oval office. wh press secretary jay carney and biden enter. obama is yawning. jc: sir, we have a situation. the republicans have learned about fast and furious killing that agent. cnn wants to know how much you knew. potus: big deal. i'll tell 'em -- how's this -- "i heard on the news about this fast and<u+00a0>furious story where<u+00a0>allegedly" -- (laughs) get that? -- "guns were being run into mexico." what the hell. i'll also say "the attorney general has been very clear he knew nothing about this."<u+00a0> holder will owe me one. where's biden with my coffee? those were the very phrases obama uttered that day. jc: the cat's out of the bag, mr. president. they know about the irs going after those tea party nuts. you have to say something during your presser with cameron today. later that day, at white house press conference with british pm david cameron. potus: well let me take the irs situation first. i first learned about it from the same news reports that i think most people learned about this. i think it was on friday. jc: another problem, sir. doj subpoenaed the ap to get those phone records. the press ain't happy about this. potus: can't you see i'm busy? you take care of it. (looking irritated at biden) shouldn't you be at a funeral? jz: come on, man, shoot! ain't got all day. later that day at the white house press briefing: reporter: when did the president find out about the department of justice subpoenas for the associated press? jc:<u+00a0> yesterday. we found out about the news reports yesterday on the road. vpotus: jay, we've got a situation. they know about those fraudulent va reports. this one's big! what should we do? jc: (sigh) i'll take care of it. get me a starbucks. reporter: the delays have been known for some time, but the fraudulent -- jc: if you mean the specific allegations that i think we're reported first by your network, i believe we learned about them through the reports. it is simply inconceivable -- no, unbelievable -- that the press knows more about the scandals surrounding this administration than does the administration. it begs the question: so why do the media put up with this nonsense? they know that they're being played for fools and yet they go along with it, time and again. their loyalty to barack obama is<u+00a0>that<u+00a0>strong. why does this administration constantly lie? because they can. l. brent bozell iii is founder and president of the media research center.

you really expect me to believe that? hillary clinton, barack obama and our liberal media

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while the house and senate gop budget plans are short on details, it's clear that spending cuts will be steep, probably including lower spending on education and the social safety net. in this tuesday, march 17, 2015, photo, house budget committee chairman rep. tom price (r) of georgia, center, holds up a synopsis of the house republican budget proposal as he announces the plan on capitol hill in washington. the gop-led house budget committee, on thursday, gave party-line approval to a sweeping balanced budget plan, but the measure faces a rewrite next week to overcome opposition from the party's defense hawks. even as congressional republicans pursue deficit-cutting budget plans, president obama has been quick to dismiss the new proposals as failing to meet the crucial goal of shoring up america<u+2019>s middle class. <u+201c>their budget doles out even more to those who already have the most, makes massive cuts to investments that benefit all of us, asks middle-class families to foot the bill,<u+201d> mr. obama said in a cleveland speech on wednesday. the republicans in charge of congress clearly disagree. their budget plans passed out of house and senate committees thursday on straight party-line votes. so, when obama says the proposals in congress would merely pave <u+201c>a path to prosperity for those who have already prospered,<u+201d> is he on the mark? the short answer is that, although it<u+2019>s hard to be too definitive about a plan that<u+2019>s lacking in detail, the president appears to have good cause to bark up this tree. even some of the republicans who are potential leading contenders for the presidential nomination in 2016 acknowledge the deep economic anxieties that mainstream americans feel. former florida gov. jeb bush is focusing on the <u+201c>right to rise,<u+201d> in a nod to the goal of upward mobility. yet in the gop fiscal plans, which now go before the full house and senate, the middle class is not front and center. instead, the plans emphasize the goal of getting annual federal deficits down to zero by a decade from now. they provide little detail on what the spending cuts and tax reforms to reach that goal are <u+2013> let alone how those changes will affect middle- or working-class families. what republicans have signaled is that entitlements are on the block, including an overhaul of medicare. both the house and senate plans call for more than $5 trillion in deficit reduction over the next 10 years, including a proposal to repeal the affordable care act. that means cutting spending on medicaid and on obamacare subsidies, which could leave millions of americans without health insurance. the republican budget doesn<u+2019>t flesh out promised policies to replace the aca. (some in the party have proposed tax credits to help people buy insurance, but no money is budgeted for such a plan.) on the tax front, it<u+2019>s possible that reform plans could avoid showering new tax breaks on the rich, but obama<u+2019>s skepticism appears justified by recent history. the bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 served up savings heavily favoring high-income households. and more recent republican proposals<u+00a0>have been open to criticism on this same front. <u+201c>while the tax component [of the house budget] is less detailed than the tax proposals in past house budgets, the information it provides strongly indicates that the plan would juxtapose deep spending cuts primarily hitting low- and middle-income people with tax changes likely to heavily favor people at the top of the income scale,<u+201d> writes chuck marr, a tax policy expert at the liberal center for budget and policy priorities in washington. at a minimum, republicans have a lot of dots still to connect for them to refute the obama line of attack. the main argument in their budget plans is that the streamlining of government <u+2013> lower taxes, more efficient spending, and lighter debt burdens <u+2013> will invigorate the economy for all americans. if that plays out, it may be a case of short-term sacrifice for benefits that come in future decades. the nonpartisan congressional budget office supports the idea that lower federal debt would strengthen long-term economic growth, by leaving <u+201c>more funds available for private investment.<u+201d> but in the short run, the cbo says deficit-cutting efforts tend to be a drag on growth. even by 2025, the overall effect of the republican plan would boost per-person output by only about 1.5 percent, the cbo estimates. by 2040, though, the estimated gains in per capita economic activity would average a more robust 7 percent. <u+201c>our budget calls for fundamental tax reform to help grow the economy and create jobs with a tax code that is simpler and fairer,<u+201d> the republicans on the house budget committee say in a fact sheet. both political parties agree that tax reform could give a modest boost to economic growth. one detailed tax reform plan, issued last year by rep. dave camp (r) while chairman of the house ways and means committee, took pains to be distributionally neutral <u+2013> meaning that in simplifying the tax code, it wouldn<u+2019>t allow the rich to pay a lighter share of us income taxes. although not everyone thought that representative camp's plan went far enough on fairness, it at least showed that conservative tax reform can be mindful of effects on different income groups. republicans can also point to their emphasis on deficit reduction as a move that would help the whole economy, not just rich people. the idea is to put the national debt on a downward path (as a share of economic output), enhancing the nation<u+2019>s fiscal health. without such efforts, weathering unforeseen emergencies such as a war or deep recession would be considerably harder to navigate. but the spending cuts implied by republican budgets would be steep, imposing costs on ordinary americans in the form of lower federal spending on things like education and the social safety net. many of the details of where those cuts will come have yet to be determined. on education, the house draft, for example, freezes pell grants at $5,775 for 10 years. on welfare programs, the senate plan outlines federal spending declining by 3.3 percent a year, compared with a current-law projection of 3.5 percent annual spending increases. republicans say the cuts can be done in smart ways (consolidating duplicate programs or pushing others to the state level) so that public needs are still met. critics of the republican approach say it<u+2019>s fundamentally flawed to try to balance the budget entirely with spending cuts, especially at a time of rising burdens on entitlement programs to cover aging baby boomers.

obama says republican budget just helps the rich. is he right?

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millions of american catholics, like me, are excited that pope francis is making his first journey to the united states. in our holy father, we have a model of personal holiness and deep concern for the most vulnerable among us. he reminds us to speak out for the persecuted, advocate for the unborn, comfort the afflicted and welcome the stranger. the pundits would like to make him out to be a politician, but his charge is much greater than that: he is the spiritual leader to the largest group of christians on earth and an inspiration to all people of good will. the church that francis leads never tires of proclaiming the dignity of all people -- a truth that is also at the heart of our form of government that pledges liberty and justice for all. it underlies the first freedom in our constitution, the freedom of religion, a freedom that too many in our government have lost sight of in recent years. i hope pope francis' visit to the united states is a powerful reminder that in a country as great and diverse as ours, we can protect religious freedom and the right of conscience while respecting those with opposing views. catholicism has grounded my own life. in catholic teachings, the family is a "domestic church," and the catholic faithful are a kind of extended family. the catholic church has always bound my own family together. even before my own conversion, we attended mass together, sharing as a family the message of hope and love, praying for peace and grace. my wife was raised in the catholic faith, we were married in a catholic student center, and we in turn raised our children as catholics. the pope: not just for catholics anymore after i lost my first campaign for governor of florida in 1994, i took stock of my life and my beliefs, and i decided to fully embrace the faith that had been guiding my family and me for many years. i attended rite of christian initiation of adults classes. i gained a deeper appreciation for the sacraments of the church and the grace they impart. i studied catholic church doctrine, and how it is renewed in every age. the more i learned, the more i appreciated the rich history of the church and its teachings, and my heart was changed by god's hand. in the 20 years since my conversion, the church has given me the faith and hope to cope with life's many challenges. in the 20 years since my conversion, the church has given me the faith and hope to cope with life's many challenges. members of my family were blessed to meet pope john paul ii, one of the truly great saints of our time. i vividly remember 1979, when saint john paul, in solidarity with the polish people, gave communion to more than 1 million catholics in warsaw, nourishing their faith and encouraging their determination to live in truth. he set a fire of liberty that led to the freedom of poland and the end of soviet domination. welcome to our big, messy religious debate, pope francis at the request of my brother, president george w. bush, i was just as blessed to lead the u.s. delegation to pope benedict xvi's inaugural mass back in 2005. it was truly an honor and inspiration to meet such a devout and thoughtful spiritual leader. i have witnessed the power of god, through his church, to touch lives and transform the world -- both on the world stage and in my own heart. the church has grounded me and my beliefs in a deep way of thinking about mercy, penance and the dignity and potential of every life, young and old, rich and poor, born and not yet born. the power of that catholic faith can be seen today, not only in the crowds that will greet pope francis in the coming days, but in the millions of men and women who heal the sick, comfort the lonely, work for peace and feed the hungry. it is a faith that touches heart and mind, and it brings comfort to all who listen to its message of hope. and it is a faith that i am proud to call my own. what the pope has said about key issues facing the church a variety of celebrities and other public figures across a variety of faiths -- and none -- have expressed their support for pope francis. here is a selection of their comments. a variety of celebrities and other public figures across a variety of faiths -- and none -- have expressed their support for pope francis. here is a selection of their comments. a variety of celebrities and other public figures across a variety of faiths -- and none -- have expressed their support for pope francis. here is a selection of their comments. a variety of celebrities and other public figures across a variety of faiths -- and none -- have expressed their support for pope francis. here is a selection of their comments. a variety of celebrities and other public figures across a variety of faiths -- and none -- have expressed their support for pope francis. here is a selection of their comments. a variety of celebrities and other public figures across a variety of faiths -- and none -- have expressed their support for pope francis. here is a selection of their comments. a variety of celebrities and other public figures across a variety of faiths -- and none -- have expressed their support for pope francis. here is a selection of their comments. a variety of celebrities and other public figures across a variety of faiths -- and none -- have expressed their support for pope francis. here is a selection of their comments. a variety of celebrities and other public figures across a variety of faiths -- and none -- have expressed their support for pope francis. here is a selection of their comments.

jeb bush: how catholic faith changed my life

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at the start of the presidential campaign, ted cruz told voters he would be the only <u+201c>consistent conservative<u+201d> in a crowded republican field. then he confronted the modern gop <u+2014> a fractured party, in which each faction has a different definition of what <u+201c>conservative<u+201d> means. to consistently please all of them, cruz has had to be inconsistent with himself. time and again he has shifted, shaded or obfuscated his policy positions <u+2014> piling on new ideas, which sometimes didn<u+2019>t fit with the old. cruz, for instance, promised libertarians that he would show a strict respect for the constitution<u+2019>s checks and balances. then, the senator from texas promised social conservatives that he would scrap one of those checks and balances, stripping lifetime tenure from supreme court justices. he criticized donald trump<u+2019>s plan for mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. then he seemed to support it. he appeared skeptical of military intervention in syria. then he vowed to find out whether <u+201c>sand can glow in the dark<u+201d> there. cruz<u+2019>s maneuvering has helped him build and maintain a base of support among the party<u+2019>s activist class: if trump fails to win the gop nomination outright, cruz could have enough backing among republican delegates to win it after the first ballot at the party<u+2019>s convention in cleveland in july. but while cruz<u+2019>s rightward shifts might have been politically smart during the primary season, they probably would create major challenges during the general election, putting cruz far to the right of most voters. <u+201c>now, he<u+2019>s in this wonderful position where he<u+2019>s both the last anti-establishment candidate acceptable who is not named donald trump, and he<u+2019>s also the last establishment candidate,<u+201d> said matt welch of the libertarian magazine reason, applauding cruz<u+2019>s policy shifts. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s just a genius level of maneuvering.<u+201d> <u+201c>the question is: what might he believe, in the middle of all of that?<u+201d> welch said. <u+201c>and i think people have a right to be very skeptical as to whether there is a real core belief system.<u+201d> cruz<u+2019>s campaign did not respond friday to a detailed list of questions about his policy positions. it<u+2019>s clear that, on a number of issues, cruz has been very consistent in his beliefs. he has opposed giving undocumented immigrants a path to u.s. citizenship. he says that climate change is not a significant problem, defying considerable scientific evidence for climate change. cruz has consistently opposed abortion, including in cases in which the pregnancy was caused by rape. he opposes same-sex marriage. but cruz says that <u+2014> despite those personal feelings <u+2014> he would leave decisions on abortion and marriage to the states. that was of a piece with cruz<u+2019>s politics during his early years in the senate: he adhered to tea party originalism, which believed washington could be corrected by a return to the limited vision of its founding fathers. <u+201c>we need to restore the constitution as our standard,<u+201d> cruz says on his campaign website. then, after the supreme court decision last year that made same-sex marriage a right nationwide, cruz said the constitution needed a change. <u+201c>i am proposing an amendment to the united states constitution that would subject the justices of the supreme court to periodic judicial-retention elections,<u+201d> cruz wrote in an op-ed in national review. now, cruz said, the public would periodically get a chance to throw out <u+201c>judicial tyrants<u+201d> with whom they disagreed. he didn<u+2019>t actually file that proposed amendment, but a point was made. this was a different kind of conservatism, one in which some policies were so important that the constitution should adapt to them. <u+201c>if ted cruz is a <u+2018>constitutionalist,<u+2019> he is a sore-loser, fair-weather constitutionalist,<u+201d> david vladeck, a professor at georgetown university law center, wrote in an email. <u+201c>the constitution<u+2019>s framers would be aghast at cruz<u+2019>s proposal to undermine the constitution<u+2019>s main protection against a tyrannical majority.<u+201d> on the subject of immigration, cruz once championed policies from his party<u+2019>s business wing <u+2014> including big increases in legal immigration. he called for doubling the caps on the number of green cards granted each year and supported a fivefold increase in the number of visas granted to high-skilled guest workers, known as h-1b visas. he demurred when asked what he<u+2019>d do with the millions of illegal immigrants already living in the united states. but then came trump. after the billionaire used promises of a sweeping immigration crackdown to rocket to the top of the gop race, cruz<u+2019>s own policies grew sharply tougher. he was against any increase in legal immigration. he called for the high-skilled visa program to be halted for 180 days so that reported abuses in the system could be investigated. rick tyler, cruz<u+2019>s former communications director, said he believes cruz is <u+201c>to the right of everyone who<u+2019>s running<u+201d> in the race. <u+201c>if he changed his position on h-1b <u+2014> and it<u+2019>s fair to say he did, but you have to look underneath it and say, <u+2018>did he change his principle on it?<u+2019> no, and i think that<u+2019>s the important thing,<u+201d> tyler said. on the question of what to do with illegal immigrants, cruz<u+2019>s answers grew tougher and tougher. first, cruz said, he wouldn<u+2019>t offer them legal status. but he wouldn<u+2019>t follow trump<u+2019>s lead and deport immigrants en masse. then, maybe, he would. <u+201c>yes, we should deport them,<u+201d> cruz said on fox news. when asked by host bill o<u+2019>reilly if he would <u+201c>look for them,<u+201d> cruz said yes. <u+201c>of course you would. that<u+2019>s what ice exists for,<u+201d> cruz said, referring to u.s. immigration and customs enforcement. <u+201c>we have law enforcement that looks for people who are violating the laws that apprehends them and deports them.<u+201d> if trump had redefined what the most conservative position on immigration was, cruz was going to keep up. at rallies now, cruz makes this explicit without saying trump<u+2019>s name: he says he wants to build a border wall and that he already <u+201c>has someone in mind to build it.<u+201d> another noticeable shift was in cruz<u+2019>s approach to the federal budget. at the beginning of his campaign, his ideas seemed drawn to please anti-tax conservatives, whose biggest concern was to reduce what washington raises and spends. cruz proposed instituting a single flat income tax, set at 10<u+00a0>percent. that would be a massive boon to the rich, who pay much higher rates now: the nonpartisan tax policy center found that the top 0.1<u+00a0>percent of earners would get a tax cut equivalent to 29<u+00a0>percent of their after-tax income. it would also take a massive slice out of overall federal revenue: the tax policy center estimated the loss at $8.6<u+00a0>trillion over a decade. that was a major departure from past gop orthodoxy: 2012 nominee mitt romney didn<u+2019>t want to reduce revenue at all. that was still not as big as trump<u+2019>s proposed tax cut, which the center said would eliminate $9.5 trillion in future revenue. cruz had specific suggestions for what he would cut to partially offset the loss. he would eliminate four cabinet agencies <u+2014> the departments of commerce, energy, education, and housing and urban development <u+2014> and the internal revenue service (cruz would shift the tax-collecting function to a new office with less power and fewer employees). in fact, cruz wanted a new constitutional amendment to require that the federal budget eventually balance. but then, while campaigning in hawkish south carolina, cruz added another piece to the plan. even as he slashed funding for the rest of the government, he promised a spending spree at the pentagon: dozens more warships, hundreds more planes, thousands more troops. analysts have estimated that the cost could exceed $1<u+00a0>trillion <u+2014> and that it could reach $2.4<u+00a0>trillion <u+2014> over a decade. <u+201c>all these promises can<u+2019>t add up. it<u+2019>s not possible,<u+201d> said marc goldwein of the committee for a responsible federal budget. he estimated that if cruz tried to make good on all of these promises <u+2014> plus another pledge to fully fund social security benefits for the near future <u+2014> he might have to cut all other spending by 85 or 90 percent. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s not realistically possible to cut taxes by $8<u+00a0>trillion and increase defense spending by $2.5<u+00a0>billion and balance the budget.<u+201d> that shift was connected to another, in cruz<u+2019>s policies toward the military. in the senate, cruz had voted repeatedly against the bill that sets policy and authorizes funding for the pentagon, often objecting that it did not have enough civil-liberties protections for americans accused of terrorism. late last year, cruz was deeply skeptical of u.s. military interventions overseas <u+2014> even in syria. <u+201c>we have no dog in the fight of the syrian civil war,<u+201d> he said. cruz has said he remains skeptical of unnecessary foreign interventions, but in february he called for an extensive pentagon buildup. he also began to call for aggressive tactics against the islamic state in syria: the united states would carpet-bomb the militants, cruz said, and find out <u+201c>if sand can glow in the dark.<u+201d> that has left even proponents of a larger u.s. military wondering about the sincerity of cruz<u+2019>s positions. <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t buy that he understands what he<u+2019>s trying to do,<u+201d> said chris harmer, a retired navy commander and national security consultant. he said he agreed with cruz that the navy was too small, but he wondered why he hadn<u+2019>t said so before. <u+201c>ted cruz should have spent the last four years making a case for: this is why the end state of the navy ought to be bigger .<u+2009>.<u+2009>. he hasn<u+2019>t done any of that,<u+201d> harmer said.

on policies, ted cruz shifts his stance to suit a fractured gop

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roof, the lead suspect in wednesday's mass shooting at a historic black church in charleston, made his appearance remotely, dressed in striped inmates' garb and flanked by two officers. on the screen, he wore a stoic expression as he looked out over the bond hearing. representatives of the victims were in the courtroom, and got to look into roof's eyes as they forgave him, one by one. "i forgive you," nadine collier, daughter of victim ethel lance, said to roof. "i will never talk to her ever again, never be able to hold her again. i forgive you and have mercy on your soul. you hurt me, you hurt a lot of people, but i forgive you." "hate won<u+2019>t win,<u+201d> she said. "my grandfather and the other victims died at the hands of hate. everyone<u+2019>s plea for your soul is proof that they lived in love and their legacies live in love." the judge asked roof whether he understood the charges against him, noting that his next two hearings would take place on oct. 23 and feb. 5. prior to the hearing, a spokesman with the charleston county sheriff's office told the huffington post that roof is on suicide watch and that his family won't be able to visit him for his first 72 hours in jail. but he said that as far as he knew, roof's family hasn't yet tried to contact the suspect, who is accused of shooting nine people dead at the emanuel african methodist episcopal church in charleston on wednesday. the charleston police department announced roof's charges, which include possession of a firearm, on twitter just hours before the hearing. the department confirmed that roof won't get bond for the murder charges: <u+201c>this is a state that is hurt by the fact that nine people innocently were killed,<u+201d> haley told the paper, adding that the state <u+201c>absolutely will want him to have the death penalty.<u+201d> later on friday, the fbi announced that it will look into the murders as a potential act of "domestic terrorism" as part of its investigation. roof was arrested on thursday after a florist in kings mountain, north carolina, noticed his vehicle, followed him and called police. he was collared in shelby, north carolina, more than 200 miles from charleston.

families to roof: 'i forgive you, and have mercy on your soul'

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the gop presidential campaign has now shifted away from the heartland evangelical wonderland of iowa to <u+201c>live free or die<u+201d> state, new hampshire, where the elbows are notoriously sharp and a whole bunch of republican establishment candidates are hunkering down to stage their last stand. it remains unlikely that any of them will be able to dislodge trump in the number one slot <u+2014> it<u+2019>s much more his kind of electorate than the pious social conservatives of iowa. there are lots of angry white right-wingers and independents there who aren<u+2019>t as concerned about their religion as they are about their guns and the threat of mexicans and muslims <u+201c>pouring over the border<u+201d> to make them eat<u+00a0>mole<u+00a0>and follow sharia law. but after iowa there a feeling of excitement in the air that the trump balloon may have finally burst, and there<u+2019>s a possibility that the air could go completely out of it over the next couple of weeks. (nate silver mused yesterday that trump may just end up being like pat buchanan or ron paul.) one suspects that all the other candidates are having fever dreams about making a big last-minute move as rubio did in iowa to either usurp the donald or come in a close second and be touted as this cycle<u+2019>s comeback kid. cruz and rubio are, of course, the two best positioned<u+00a0>to do this, with rubio probably a little bit better positioned than cruz simply because<u+00a0>he isn<u+2019>t quite as dependent on evangelical voters, even though he turned himself into the second coming of oral roberts in the last couple of weeks to get himself a slice of that iowa evangelical pie. yesterday morning,<u+00a0>the campaigns wasted no time with niceties, as chris christie, jeb bush and john kasich were practically waiting on the tarmac for the iowa three to alight from their private planes to begin the battle,<u+00a0>mano a mano.<u+00a0>so far they seem to be<u+00a0>sticking with the <u+201c>trump will implode eventually<u+201d> strategy and are setting their sights on one another. as is his wont,<u+00a0>chris christie<u+00a0>was the first to deliver a roundhouse punch to the man who came in third in iowa but was declared the winner, marco rubio: <u+201c>let<u+2019>s get him up here <u+2013> let<u+2019>s get the boy in the bubble up here. let<u+2019>s see if he<u+2019>ll handle your questions and take that. i don<u+2019>t think he will. now it<u+2019>s time for him to man up and step up and stop letting his handlers write all of his speeches. i<u+2019>m fascinated to hear his answers, and i<u+2019>m sure you are too. <u+201c>maybe he<u+2019>ll answer more than two or three questions at a town hall and do more than 40 minutes and deliver something that isn<u+2019>t the same canned speech he gives every time. this isn<u+2019>t the student-council election everybody. this is the election for the president of the united states. <u+201c>let<u+2019>s get the boy in his bubble out of his bubble, and let<u+2019>s see him play for the next week in new hampshire. let<u+2019>s see if he<u+2019>s ready to play because i<u+2019>m ready to play.<u+201d> it<u+2019>s pretty clear what christie<u+2019>s saying there: rubio<u+2019>s a punk. rubio<u+2019>s campaign manager responded by calling christie a liberal obama lover who<u+2019>s full of <u+201c>hot air,<u+201d> which undoubtedly made him feel very sad. jeb bush meanwhile is facing a different problem: too much campaign spending on his behalf. it sounds weird, but according to<u+00a0>this washington post story, bush<u+2019>s super pac is inundating people with expensive campaign swag to the point where it<u+2019>s making them recoil from the candidate.this has happened before. in california, ebay magnate and gop gubernatorial candidate meg whitman saturated the state with advertisements for many months, and it made<u+00a0>people hate her.<u+00a0>there is such a thing as too much exposure. (it<u+2019>s worth noting that<u+00a0>whitman had an unusual business arrangement with strategist mike murphy<u+00a0><u+2014><u+00a0>the same mike murphy who runs bush<u+2019>s right to rise super pac.) meanwhile,<u+00a0>after his super pac ran a very unpopular negative ad against marco rubio<u+00a0>and he asked them to take it down,<u+00a0>governor john kasich (who is seen as a possible new hampshire latecomer) seems to have decided that he<u+2019>s going to run as the positive, optimistic guy. it makes sense since there might be a few people in new hampshire who aren<u+2019>t convinced that their country is the dark and hopeless dystopian hell-scape the other candidates insist america has become. and then there<u+2019>s rubio, who is telling everyone who will listen that he<u+2019>s the only one who can <u+201c>unite both the republican party and the conservative movement after what has been a divisive campaign.<u+201d> he seems to think if he says it enough it will be true. and a lot of republicans in d.c. are probably hoping he<u+2019>s right. unfortunately, he and cruz might share the same problem in the general election.<u+00a0>this kasich voter<u+00a0>gets right to the point: rubio and cruz <u+201c>really are too conservative, and i don<u+2019>t really see them as compromisers,<u+201d> said judy kohn, a 76-year-old retired librarian from georges, new hampshire. nobody is surprised that someone might think ted cruz is too conservative. but that nice young man rubio? well yes, as it happens,<u+00a0>he<u+2019>s just as right wing as cruz. sure, he joined the gang of 8 to try to forge some compromise on immigration but that<u+2019>s the<u+00a0>only<u+00a0>compromise he<u+2019>s ever endorsed. it<u+2019>s too bad for him that happens to be a litmus test issue on the right (and one which i<u+2019>m not sure they can forgive). lindsay graham put it right out there on <u+201c>morning joe<u+201d>: <u+201d>i like marco but he has now turned hard right. marco has no exception for rape and incest. i think it<u+2019>s going to be very hard to grow the party among women if you<u+2019>re gonna tell young women, <u+2018>if you get raped, you<u+2019>re gotta carry the child of the rapist.<u+2019><u+201d> according to recent polling<u+00a0>that extreme position is only held by 17 percent of the public. this quote is from a speech rubio gave a while back<u+00a0>at the reagan library, talking about medicare and social security: <u+201c>these programs actually weakened us as a people. you see, almost forever, it was institutions in society that assumed the role of taking care of one another<u+2026>all of a sudden, for an increasing number of people in our nation, it was no longer necessary to worry about saving for security because that was the government<u+2019>s job.<u+201d> it<u+2019>s rare to hear even a far right wing zealot or hardcore libertarian suggest that social security and medicare have <u+201c>weakened us as a people.<u+201d> the farthest they will usually go is to suggest that the program should be privatized. that<u+2019>s a scathing indictment of our national character. here<u+2019>s a quote<u+00a0>from the most recent presidential debate talking about the threat of isis: <u+201c>when i am president of the united states, if there is some place in this country where radical jihadists are planning to attack the united states, we will go after them wherever they are, and if we capture them alive, they are going to guantanamo.<u+201d> essentially, he<u+2019>s saying that terrorist suspects caught within the united states will not have trials, they will be sent to guantanamo. but that<u+2019>s not how we do things in this country. any terrorist suspects we<u+2019>ve caught here up until now have been subject to the american legal system. we<u+2019>ve had numerous court cases on the subject. he<u+2019>s openly admitting he plans to flout the rule of law. that was just the tip of the iceberg of rubio<u+2019>s frightening foreign policy and national security declarations during the debates. he is, by far, the most bellicose of the lot, and that<u+2019>s saying something. he states that president obama has not kept the country safe and therefore he is prepared to let the intelligence services do <u+201c>whatever it takes,<u+201d> and promising to make terrorist suspects talk (and i think we know what that means). even dick cheney is more restrained. the republicans seem to have talked themselves into believing their own hype that the country is in dire straits, the terrorists are coming in droves to kill us and everyone in the nation is angry and frightened to death about<u+2026> well, everything. there<u+2019>s a certain political utility in making this case in a presidential primary but at some point reality is going to intrude. no, everything isn<u+2019>t perfect. america is still emerging from a very difficult economic crisis and there is a terrorist threat abroad. people are frustrated by student debt and police violence and any number of other problems. but the mad max version of the united states these republicans are talking about doesn<u+2019>t really ring true for more than a limited faction who<u+00a0>think the world they knew is disappearing and they will not be able to adjust to the new one. if all the cards fall the right way and cruz is unable to win anywhere where there isn<u+2019>t a large evangelical population and trump decides he wants to go back to playing golf and none of the rest of the establishment pack can climb out of the pile, maybe rubio will be able to bridge the gap between the conservative movement and the establishment as he<u+2019>s now promising on a loop. and that<u+2019>s making the huge assumption that the anti-immigration fetishists will hold their noses and vote for him despite his one apostasy. but that still doesn<u+2019>t solve their problem. rubio is so far to the right and the party is so hostile to racial and ethnic minorities that they cannot win a national election. he<u+2019>s got a hispanic last name and a beautiful young family, but his record shows he<u+2019>s just another right wing extremist.

marco rubio can<u+2019>t save the republican party: why people are giving him way too much credit after iowa

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but many voters expressed fear or concern at the idea of a trump presidency -- or a hillary clinton one. trump is dominating the gop pack with 35% support, according to the new poll . texas sen. ted cruz and retired neurosurgeon ben carson trail him with 16% and 13% support respectively. but the new national poll also found that 24% of all voters showed "concern" and 40% expressed "fear" over what trump would do were he to win the white house next year. on the democratic side, front-runner hillary clinton leads vermont sen. bernie sanders by 20 percentage points. but voters also showed worry over a clinton presidency: 23% said they are concerned by the possibility, and 34% said they were scared. the poll surveyed 1,053 registered voters, including 431 republican primary voters and 384 democratic primary voters, between december 4-8 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points for registered voters, and plus or minus 6 percentage points each for republican and democratic primary voters. the poll was mostly conducted before trump made a proposal to ban all muslim travel to the u.s.

poll: voters fret trump or clinton in the white house

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and they are looking for someone who could appeal to - or at least not offend - hispanics, non-white women and other parts of the electorate that went big for obama and democrats last year. that's why, just four months into obama's second term, paul is part of a stampede of republican would-be contenders who are criss-crossing the country meeting voters, recruiting potential donors and currying favor with local politicians who could help determine their fate in a run for the white house. the lessons of romney's bitter loss in november are never far away. on monday, paul made jokes about neighboring (and more liberal) massachusetts and chided leading democrat hillary clinton. but the kentucky senator also made a point of calling for a more diverse republican party, one that, in his words, should have room for tattooed, bearded and pony-tailed voters. rubio's fellow floridian jeb bush, the state's former governor and a brother to one former president and son to another, has not indicated whether he might run in 2016. but he has been politically active, calling for congress to approve an immigration bill. the lack of an obvious front-runner for the upcoming presidential election is not unusual for the democratic party but is for republicans, who for generations have typically had an experienced contender in line to run for the white house. "we are putting together a narrative of the rick santorum story," brabender said. "it's pretty interesting to see how close he came to the (2012) nomination. if he would have won michigan, he would have been the nominee. one of our jobs is to sort of remind people of that."

it begins...

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in the first debate between presidential contenders donald trump and hillary clinton, trump repeatedly relied on troublesome and false facts that have been debunked throughout the campaign. clinton stretched the truth on occasion, such as when she tried to wiggle out of her 2012 praise of the trans pacific partnership as a <u+201c>gold standard.<u+201d> but her misstatements paled in comparison to the list of trump<u+2019>s exaggerations and falsehoods. trump once again asserted that the 2008 clinton campaign was responsible for spreading the myth that president obama was born in kenya, when that is false. he claimed that <u+201c>thousands<u+201d> of american jobs will leave the country when ford shifts small-car manufacturing to mexico, but no one here will lose their jobs. he also falsely claimed that he was against the iraq war, when all available evidence demonstrates that he supported it until the rest of the country began to turn against it in 2004. he also once again falsely said he started his business with a <u+201c>small loan<u+201d> from his father. here<u+2019>s a roundup of 23 of the most noteworthy claims that were made. as is our practice, we do not award pinocchios when we do a roundup of facts in<u+00a0>debates. ford is moving its small car production to mexico, but the expansion will not affect u.s. workers. the company has said that while production of ford focus models will shift to mexico, its plant in michigan will build other, larger vehicles. ford and many other automakers are finding mexico more attractive for several reasons. <u+201c>the cost of labor is indeed greater in the united states, which makes producing labor-intensive small cars in mexico more profitable. the united states also has advantages, though <u+2014> inexpensive electricity, experienced technicians and access to sophisticated materials and equipment <u+2014> often means building larger and more expensive cars is cheaper in this country,<u+201d> our colleague max ehrenfreund wrote. clinton exaggerates here. we know of three years in the 1970s when he did pay federal income taxes. but there were at least five years in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s when trump did not pay any, or nearly any, income taxes. trump<u+2019>s tax plan would raise federal income taxes on more than half of america<u+2019>s single parents and one-fifth of families with children, according to an analysis by lily batchelder, a new york university expert on tax policy who formerly worked for obama<u+2019>s national economic council. while the trump campaign called it <u+201c>pure fiction,<u+201d> the right-leaning tax foundation has said the group was able to replicate her findings. kyle pomerleau, director of federal projects at the tax foundation, posted on twitter that batchelder<u+2019>s results <u+201c>seem reasonable to me.<u+201d> mark zandi, a well-respected economist, did issue a report saying that if trump<u+2019>s economic plans were fully implemented, 3.5 million jobs would disappear, incomes would stagnate, debt would explode and stock prices would plummet. but the report also said it was highly unlikely that trump would get many of his plans approved by congress, even if it is controlled by republicans, because so many of his positions are so a departure from republican principles.<u+00a0>even so, the report said the u.s. economy would likely suffer under a trump presidency. his report also said<u+00a0>that if clinton were able to fully implement her economic plans, the economy would add an additional 3.2 million jobs during the first four years of her presidency. combined with anticipated job creation under current law, that adds up to 10.4 million jobs. but the report also said that clinton would face significant roadblocks to getting her economic plan through congress, resulting in far fewer job gains. trump cites an internal revenue service audit as his justification for not releasing his federal income tax returns, but the audit does not prohibit from releasing the returns. richard nixon, who started the tradition of presidents and presidential candidates releasing their returns, did so in the middle of an audit. moreover, trump has not released his tax returns from before 2009, which are no longer under audit, according to his attorney. presidential candidates have no legal obligation to release their returns, but there has long been a tradition to do so for the sake of transparency. hillary clinton has released three decades<u+2019> worth of tax returns. while trump has not released the returns, his long history of litigation has given the public a sense of what is in his returns. tax information made public so far show trump did not pay any, or nearly any, income taxes at least five times in the past 40 years. trump is being misleading. tax experts say that tax returns provide insight about a person<u+2019>s finances in several key areas. first, the tax return reveals a person<u+2019>s annual income. a person<u+2019>s net worth is not disclosed, but voters would gain an understanding of a person<u+2019>s cash flow. second, voters would understand the sources of a person<u+2019>s income, such as how much comes from certain businesses, speeches, dividends, capital gains and so forth. third, a tax return would disclose how much a person gives to charity. mitt romney gave almost $2.3 million to charity in 2011, while bill and hillary clinton gave $3 million to charity in 2014. we know these figures because of information in their tax returns. trump claims he has given $102 million to charity in the past five years, but a washington post investigation found not a cent in actual cash <u+2014> mostly just free rounds of golf, given away by his courses for charity auctions and raffles. trump<u+2019>s tax return would clear up exactly how much he has really given to charity <u+2014> indeed, whether he has given anything at all. fourth, a tax return would reveal how aggressive trump has been on his taxes. there is no black-and-white approach to taxes; there are many gray areas subject to interpretation, especially regarding deductions. trump frequently suggests that he knows how to game the system, so voters would learn whether he takes the same approach to his taxes. finally, the tax returns would disclose what percentage of trump<u+2019>s income actually goes to taxes. trump is right. clinton is subtly adjusting her words here when confronted with a question about her consistency on policy positions. but the fact is she never used the word <u+201c>hoped.<u+201d> instead, she was more declarative, using the phrase <u+201c>gold standard<u+201d> when she was secretary of state. <u+201c>this tpp sets the gold standard in trade agreements to open free, transparent, fair trade, the kind of environment that has the rule of law and a level playing field,<u+201d><u+00a0>she said in australia in 2012. <u+201c>and when negotiated, this agreement will cover 40 percent of the world<u+2019>s total trade and build in strong protections for workers and the environment.<u+201d> trump<u+2019>s companies have filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, which means a company can remain in business while wiping away many of its debts. the bankruptcy court ultimately approves a corporate budget and a plan to repay remaining debts; often shareholders lose much of their equity. trump<u+2019>s taj mahal opened in april 1990 in atlantic city, but six months later, <u+201c>defaulted on interest payments to bondholders as his finances went into a tailspin,<u+201d> the washington post<u+2019>s robert o<u+2019>harrow found. in july 1991, trump<u+2019>s taj mahal filed for bankruptcy. he could not keep up with debts on two other atlantic city casinos, and those two properties declared bankruptcy in 1992. a fourth property, the plaza hotel in new york, declared bankruptcy in 1992 after amassing debt. politifact uncovered two more bankruptcies filed after 1992, totaling six. trump hotels and casinos resorts filed for bankruptcy again in 2004, after accruing about $1.8 billion in debt. trump entertainment resorts also declared bankruptcy in 2009, after being hit hard during the 2008 recession. why the discrepancy? perhaps this will give us an idea: trump told washington post reporters that he counted the first three bankruptcies as just one. trump cherry-picks the increase in violence in chicago, but this is not indicative of overall crime rates, which have been declining for years. moreover, while trump says stop-and-frisk policies should be enacted in chicago as it was implemented in new york city, those policies have not been correlated with<u+00a0>crime. while violent crime overall has been declining for about two decades, there was a sharp increase in the violent crime rate in 2015. homicides have continued to spike in major cities this year, though the rates remain far below their peak in the late 1980s and early 1990s. law enforcement officials, including the fbi, have voiced concerns about the uptick in crime in 2015. criminal justice experts warn against comparing crime trends from short periods of time, such as month over month or year over year. an annual trend can show a trajectory of where the trend might be headed, but still does not give a full picture. many criminal justice experts say crime trends are determined over at least five years, preferably 10 or 20 years, of data. trump praises stop-and-frisk policies under former new york city mayor rudolph giuliani. but it<u+2019>s<u+00a0>debatable whether the stop-and-frisk policies had such a direct impact on crime, as trump suggests. crime is affected by many factors, and new york<u+2019>s decline in crime mirrored the decline in many other major cities at the time. moreover, crime was declining for four years before giuliani took office, and it continued to decline for 14 years after he left. we awarded<u+00a0>three pinocchios to trump<u+2019>s claim attributing stop-and-frisk policies to the decline in crime. trump also claimed that <u+201c>murders are up<u+201d> in new york. that is incorrect. homicides in new york are down so far this year from the same point last year, according to the new york police department. but homicides did see an uptick in new york city in 2015, similar to trends in numerous other cities. democrats, including clinton, frequently point out that people on the terrorist watch list can purchase a gun. but the proposal that democrats have made in congress wouldn<u+2019>t ban such purchases automatically. we have awarded two pinocchios to this claim for lack of context. sen. dianne feinstein (d-calif.) has introduced legislation to give authority to the attorney general to decide whether or not a suspected terrorist could buy a gun. anyone who was subjected to a federal terrorism investigation within five years of the attempted gun purchase would be flagged in the background-check system, and the justice department would be able to review those cases. the government uses a <u+201c>reasonable suspicion<u+201d> standard to nominate and include someone in the terrorist watchlist, which includes the <u+201c>no-fly list.<u+201d> belonging to a terrorist organization, or being listed on one of the watch lists, does not automatically stop someone from buying a gun. there has to be another factor that disqualifies the person from buying a gun under federal or state law, such as a felony conviction or illegal immigration status. clinton is right that trump emphatically urged the united states to remove libyan dictator moammar gaddafi <u+00a0>from power. here<u+2019>s trump, in february 2011, urging an intervention on his video blog. <u+201c>i can<u+2019>t believe what our country is doing,<u+201d> trump said. <u+201c>qaddafi in libya is killing thousands of people, nobody knows how bad it is, and we<u+2019>re sitting around we have soldiers all have the middle east, and we<u+2019>re not bringing them in to stop this horrible carnage and that<u+2019>s what it is: it<u+2019>s a carnage.<u+201d> trump added: <u+201c>now we should go in, we should stop this guy, which would be very easy and very quick. we could do it surgically, stop him from doing it, and save these lives. this is absolutely nuts. we don<u+2019>t want to get involved and you<u+2019>re gonna end up with something like you<u+2019>ve never seen before. <u+2026>we have go in to save these lives; these people are being slaughtered like animals. it<u+2019>s horrible what<u+2019>s going on; it has to be stopped. we should do on a humanitarian basis, immediately go into libya, knock this guy out very quickly, very surgically, very effectively, and save the lives.<u+201d> this is just totally false. we have found no evidence of his early opposition to the invasion. trump expressed lukewarm support the first time he was asked about it on sept. 11, 2002, and was not clearly against it until he was quoted in the august 2004 esquire cover story titled <u+201c>donald trump: how i<u+2019>d run the country (better).<u+201d> but by the middle of 2004, many americans had turned against the war, making trump<u+2019>s position not particularly unique. in light of trump<u+2019>s repeated false claim, esquire has added an editor<u+2019>s note to its august 2004 story, saying, <u+201c>the iraq war began in march 2003, more than a year before this story ran, thus nullifying trump<u+2019>s timeline.<u+201d> we have awarded this claim four pinocchios, compiled a timeline of all of trump<u+2019>s comments prior to the invasion in march 2003, and even a video documenting how this is a bogus claim. trump said he had <u+201c>numerous conversations with sean hannity<u+201d> prior to the invasion, expressing his opposition to the war. these appear to be private conversations. hannity told erik wemple blog that trump <u+201c>would watch the show and call after and we argued a lot about<u+201d> the war. we should note that hannity is one of trump<u+2019>s biggest boosters and has never asserted that trump made these private claims to him until recently, even though this has been a constant source of controversy during trump<u+2019>s campaign. hannity has also not offered any evidence to back up his claim that he and trump had such conversations at the time. [update: during the debate, trump also cited his january 2003 fox news interview with neil cavuto as proof of his early opposition. the day after the debate, fox news cited this clip, declaring it <u+201c>backs up trump on iraq war opposition.<u+201d> as our<u+00a0>timeline shows, trump was not clearly against the war in this interview, either. on feb. 18, 2016, cavuto replayed the clip<u+00a0>and said it wasn<u+2019>t clear trump was against the war then. while trump now says he opposed the iraq war, cavuto said:<u+00a0><u+201c>when i interviewed him back in january 2003, couple of months before we formally got involved in iraq, he could<u+2019>ve left you with a different impression.<u+201d> cavuto said<u+00a0>that in the january 2003 interview, trump was <u+201c>not<u+00a0>bashing the president back then, nor is he fully endorsing iraq. but he is saying some clear decision is required.<u+201d> meghan mccain, appearing in the segment, said in response: <u+201c>he speaks now though, like he was protesting with code pink in the street, like he was adamantly against the war in iraq. like he was this huge person in the media stage, protesting against president bush and going into iraq.<u+201d>] regarding clinton<u+2019>s statement, the key issue with the email controversy was that clinton had a private server <u+2014> not just a private email <u+2014> and she never used her designated state department email account, which would have kept records of emails subject to requests under the freedom of information act. the accuracy of trump<u+2019>s claim depends on whether he is referring to her decision to use a private server, or if he is suggesting that clinton purposefully intended to mishandle classified information. on the former point, yes, clinton chose on purpose to use a private email server. on the latter, the fbi would disagree. fbi director james b. comey has said clinton was <u+201c>extremely careless<u+201d> in handling classified information through her private server. our colleagues matt zapotosky and rosalind helderman noted: <u+201c>but comey also has said that investigators found particularly lacking any intent on clinton or her staff<u+2019>s part to mishandle classified information, and that would undermine any possible criminal case against them.<u+201d> click here for our round-up of 14 fact-checks about the clinton email controversy. how can a federal agency, the immigration and customs enforcement, endorse a candidate? trump is actually referring to the national immigration and customs enforcement council, which is the union representing ice officers. in a statement released by the campaign, national ice council president chris crane said it was the union<u+2019>s first-ever endorsement. trump is basically right. the trade deficit in 2015 was $762 billion, according to the census bureau. clinton is correct. trump in may caused a stir when he suggested the united states should borrow more and renegotiate new terms later. <u+201c>i would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal,<u+201d> trump said on cnbc. the comments caused angst in the financial markets, as the u.s. treasury securities are considered the world<u+2019>s safest investment precisely because the united states is at low risk of default. renegotiating the terms would be seen as a form of default. trump later walked away from his comments, claiming he had been misquoted. to support the debunked notion that clinton<u+2019>s campaign originated <u+201c>birther<u+201d> rumors during the 2008 presidential campaign, trump pointed to these two examples. but they don<u+2019>t add up to much of anything. james asher, former d.c. bureau chief of mcclatchy, has said that longtime clinton ally sidney blumenthal <u+201c>strongly urged<u+201d> him to <u+201c>investigate the exact place of president obama<u+2019>s birth, which he suggested was in kenya.<u+201d> mcclatchy assigned a reporter to go to kenya, and the reporter found the allegation was false, asher said. (we reached out to asher several times but did not receive a response.) blumenthal, declining to elaborate further, said in a statement to the fact checker: <u+201c>this is false. period. donald trump cannot distract from the fact that he is the one who embraced and promoted the birther lie, and bears the responsibility for it.<u+201d> solis doyle did say in a recent cnn interview that in december 2007, a volunteer coordinator in iowa forwarded an email perpetuating the birther conspiracy. clinton <u+201c>made the decision immediately to let that person go,<u+201d> solis doyle said in the interview. as in the instance with the iowa volunteer coordinator, the campaign denounced isolated instances of clinton<u+2019>s staffers questioning whether obama was muslim. we found that there<u+2019>s no evidence that she or her campaign were <u+201c>pressing it very hard<u+201d> <u+2014> though some of her supporters did perpetuate the claims in the bitter 2008 primary campaign against obama. <u+201c>as multiple, independent fact checkers have affirmed in the years since, neither the 2008 campaign nor the candidate ever questioned the president<u+2019>s citizenship or birth certificate. period,<u+201d> said clinton campaign spokesman josh schwerin. trumps mixes up a lot of things here. the united states pays about 22 percent of the common-fund budget for the north atlantic treaty organization. but the volume of the u.s. defense expenditures effectively represents 73 percent of the defense spending of the alliance as a whole. but that does not mean that the united states pays 73 percent of the costs of running nato. the figure reflects the fact that united states, as a world power, projects its might across the globe. experts say it is all but impossible to calculate how much of overall u.s. defense spending is devoted exclusively for nato, but there is little dispute that most members are not meeting their commitment to have defense expenditures should amount to 2 percent of each country<u+2019>s gross domestic product. as for trump patting himself on the back for spurring nato to focus on terror, he<u+2019>s kidding himself. the plan was in the works long before trump starting saying nato was obsolete. this data checks out, according to research by the brennan center for justice. nationally, the violent crime rate has fallen by 51 percent since 1991, and property crime has fallen by 43 percent. as clinton noted in her response, the terms of departure from iraq were originally set by the george w. bush administration. the bush administration signed a status of forces agreement (sofa) with iraq in 2008 that established a deadline for the withdrawal of all u.s. forces from iraq by dec. 31, 2011. but it was widely expected troops would remain after a negotiated extension. clinton, as secretary of state, had pushed for some troops to remain in iraq but the administration was not able to reach an agreement and so u.s. troops left iraq. former defense secretary leon panetta, in his memoir, pinned the blame on obama: <u+201c>to my frustration, the white house coordinated the negotiations but never really led them. officials there seemed content to endorse an agreement if state and defense could reach one, but without the president<u+2019>s active advocacy, [iraqi prime minister nouri] al-maliki was allowed to slip away.<u+201d> obama, meanwhile, was pleased to be able to run for reelection in 2012 on a claim that no more u.s. troops were left in iraq. to a large extent, the islamic state of today is simply an outgrowth of al-qaeda of iraq, which emerged after the 2003 invasion of iraq. at best, one could argue that actions that obama failed to take (over clinton<u+2019>s opposition) helped contribute to the growth of isis, also known as the islamic state. islamic state certainly has become an important player in the middle east, taking advantage of the civil war in syria and the disarray in the iraqi government to claim vast areas of both countries. in the past couple of years, the group<u+2019>s activities have gathered attention in the united states; it was only in 2014 that president obama dismissed islamic state as a <u+201c>jv team.<u+201d> clinton was secretary of state when obama made decisions that could be seen as contributing to the rise of the islamic states, but ironically she was one of the loudest forces for keeping a residual force in iraq and for intervening in syria, such as arming the rebels. both steps advocated by clinton might have thwarted the emergence of the terror group. moreover, clinton was not secretary of state when obama all but ignored the islamic state as it moved back into iraq in late 2013. but <u+2014> and here<u+2019>s the irony <u+2014> trump criticizes obama for a policy position he had advocated be taken even sooner than 2011. <u+201c>i would announce that we have been victorious in iraq and all the troops are coming home and let those people have their civil war,<u+201d> trump<u+00a0>told cnbc in 2006. <u+201c>i just said, announce victory, get them home<u+2026>. let<u+2019>s say, <u+2018>victory, tremendous.<u+2019> have a big thing in the streets. then get out real fast before you get shot. let<u+2019>s get home.<u+201d> indeed, there are victims of homicide by undocumented immigrants, including by those in gangs. but there are two important data points to remember when trump talks about this. first, the vast majority of unauthorized immigrants do not fit trump<u+2019>s description of aggravated felons, whose crimes include murder. u.s. sentencing commission data shows homicides are a small percentage of the crimes committed by noncitizens, whether they are in the united states illegally or not. second, illegal immigration flows across the southern border in fiscal 2015 were at the lowest levels since 1972, except for in 2011. the apprehensions in fiscal 2016 so far have exceeded fiscal 2015, but still indicate an overall decline. isis does not control oil in libya. trump has been called out before on this point, but he keeps saying this false claim. as for keeping the oil in iraq, this is nonsensical. the bush administration invested a lot of diplomatic effort in assuring middle eastern allies that the united states was not invading because of iraq<u+2019>s oil fields. moreover, oil revenue was crucial to ensuring a functioning iraqi state <u+2014> which is why insurgents often targeted the oil sector in iraq. in any event, seizing the oil of a sovereign nation after invading it would be considered a <u+201c>grave breach<u+201d> of the geneva conventions, one of the cornerstones of international law, as well as other international agreements. maybe trump<u+2019>s staff should arrange a tutorial on international law. our colleague steven mufson looked deeply at whether, international law aside, such a proposal was even feasible. one expert said it was <u+201c>beyond goofy.<u+201d> clinton is referring to this statement by kellyanne conway, back when she was supporting trump rival ted cruz, the texas senator. <u+00a0>conway, who now defends trump with fervor, told cnn on march 8: <u+201c>for trump, the debates are fought with peril. the trump victims. the reason the messaging has gotten better is they are starting to talk about victims of trump university, victims of trump in atlantic city. before it was conservative apostasies, and now it is, you built your business on the backs of the little guy.<u+201d> send us facts to check by filling out this form check out our guide to all<u+00a0>trump and clinton fact checks sign up for the fact checker weekly newsletter in the debate, trump shifts on nato, to the relief of europe did trump really suggest that china should invade north korea? trump says china is <u+2018>the best ever<u+2019> at devaluing its currency. that<u+2019>s no longer true.

fact-checking the first clinton-trump presidential debate

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egypt and saudi arabia are planning a ground operation in yemen, egyptian officials said thursday, a day after saudi arabia began bombing houthi rebels in the country. three officials speaking to the ap did not give troop numbers, but said that they would enter by land and by sea and that the coalition would involve other countries. turkey has said that it may be one of the nations providing<u+00a0>"logistical support." yemeni president rabbo mansour hadi fled his home to an undisclosed location wednesday. the white house said late wednesday that president barack obama authorized logistical and intelligence support to the saudi-led operations in yemen. <u+201c>while u.s. forces are not taking direct military action in yemen in support of this effort, we are establishing a joint planning cell with saudi arabia to coordinate u.s. military and intelligence support,<u+201d> according to a white house statement.

saudi arabia, egypt to invade yemen

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it is a little after midnight on a friday in late january. i am in a strip club in morgantown, west virginia, drinking shit american beer that tastes like ice and newspaper. a man is passing me a semi-automatic handgun and telling me to pull the trigger. the man is john barron; the gun is a browning hi-power. it once belonged to an israeli police officer, but now it belongs to jeff, john<u+2019>s brother, an early birthday present to himself. together they own this strip club, the blue parrot cabaret, dark and sparse with a front door the color of cherry skin. across the street is a place that sells all-terrain vehicles; two miles up the road, a half-dozen fraternity houses sit on top of a steep hill that your car will groan to climb. john releases the magazine and holds the slide back to show me there<u+2019>s nothing in the chamber. he is the type of man who could have worked at a video store or sold comic books or telescopes, a man proud to be a connoisseur. and now here he is, in a building that jeff needed to mortgage his farm six years ago to help him open, on the fringes of a college town, the both of them sitting at a back table in a palace of human fantasies, talking about guns while half-naked women lead men upstairs by the hand to squishy leather love seats. john passes the browning to me. it<u+2019>s heavy and solid, something that should be obvious but is still startling somehow, immediately. <u+201c>feel the trigger on that,<u+201d> jeff says. i do. it feels smooth and light, like pushing an elevator button, except this is a thing designed for death. printed on jeff<u+2019>s black t-shirt, in skinny white letters: <u+201c>by reading this shirt you have given me brief control over your mind.<u+201d> john and jeff take out another gun, the recently released ruger american 9-mm pistol, black and plastic-y, and then another, a tiny .380 kel-tec. jeff<u+2019>s eyes flash down to the guns and then back up to me and then back down again, all of them laid out on the counter. <u+201c>welcome to west virginia,<u+201d> he says. i am in west virginia to understand donald trump. at least, to the extent that the political embodiment of a hardee<u+2019>s commercial needs to be understood. specifically, i<u+2019>m here to understand the people who want him to be president. last december, the new york times published a report<u+2014>based on statistics from civis analytics, a democratic data firm<u+2014>that found west virginia to have the highest support for trump in the country. in its first congressional district<u+2014>the northern part of the state, where morgantown is located<u+2014>45 percent of those polled said they would choose trump over any other g.o.p. candidate. on some level, this isn<u+2019>t a surprise. west virginia hasn<u+2019>t voted for a democrat in a presidential election since 1996. the state, according to census data, is 93 percent white and 88 percent native-born. and environmental restrictions targeting the coal industry<u+2014>the central nervous system of the west virginia economy<u+2014>have been taken by many as a personal assault, a condemnation of the state<u+2019>s culture, its history, its blue-collar virtues. the mess of these things has brought obama<u+2019>s approval rating in west virginia as low as almost anywhere else in the country. and so i have come here to meet people like john and jeff, people who see trump as the renegade out for justice, as someone who is not impulsive but decisive; not cruel but honest; not bombastic but patriotic; not indecent but uninhibited. you may wonder, how could someone vote for a man so resistant to grace, to convention, to good taste? and those people will tell you, look where good taste brought us. one afternoon at the bluebird store in clarksburg<u+2014>part diner, grocery store, and social club<u+2014>i meet shane shreves, a fourth-generation union coal miner. he wants trump to be president. in 2015, he says, he lost 262 miners to layoffs at his mine alone, robinson run no. 95. <u+201c>coal has carried west virginia on its back for 200 years,<u+201d> he tells me. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s built schools. communities. it<u+2019>s not anger [we feel here], really, it<u+2019>s just very frustrating.<u+201d> eric leaseburg, the owner of the store, sits down at a big round table with us. he has a full plate of food in front of him. shreves finishes a thought, and then leaseburg says, as he loads up his fork, <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t even know if [west virginians] want to see trump president, but they<u+2019>re just that pissed off.<u+201d> and, well, if you<u+2019>re pissed off, if your hopes for your stagnant town have wilted and died, who better than donald trump, america<u+2019>s tooth fairy emeritus? he is a man who has turned the excruciating, real-life, how-are-we-keeping-the-lights-on pissed off into something marketable, a 140-characters version of pissed off, something easily packaged and disseminated. trump is politician as pickup artist, as infomercial salesman; someone who will in a single breath pulverize your self-esteem and then convince you that he is the only one who can put you back together again, speaking in empty hyperbole, all <u+201c>love<u+201d> and <u+201c>disasters<u+201d>; someone to resuscitate all of your sputtering little egos with something grand and implausible. he loves everyone, everything, he<u+2019>s going to take you home tonight, you have such beautiful eyes, baby, what are you doing here all alone? i can make you great again. donald trump is an american. but before that he is a mogul, a helicopter passenger, a monolith of barely considered interjections. his twitter feed is a scroll of grave warnings and half-present admonishments of america-down-the-shitter. is it any wonder that the same day trump received an endorsement from sarah palin, he also received one from the daughter of john wayne, another counterfeit cowboy? trump behaves like a man bored enough by fame and wealth that he can manufacture an adversarial relationship with a nation just to challenge it. someone so aroused by the idea of being outrageous and condescending that it seems to almost border on erotic for him. someone who has spent his life negotiating, convincing, selling you things you don<u+2019>t need for a price you can<u+2019>t afford. he is selling not a commodity now but an inspirational hokum, a life raft, a rope ladder from a helicopter. i am getting coffee for my ride north, stopping in charleston, west virginia, in gino<u+2019>s pizza & spaghetti house. there are posters on the wall for <u+201c>our famous pubwich<u+201d> and <u+201c>ginos original sicilian baked sub<u+201d> and <u+201c>old world pepperoni cheesy bread.<u+201d> the pictures of the items on the posters look <u+201c>famous<u+201d> the way mug shots look famous. the store manager, cheryl hall, has short blonde hair and punctuates every sentence with sweetie-sugar-honey-baby, putting her elbows on the counter to listen to you talk. she moved from ohio to west virginia in 1982, and in april she<u+2019>ll have been working at gino<u+2019>s for 11 years. <u+201c>i started and i didn<u+2019>t think much of it,<u+201d> she says. <u+201c>i didn<u+2019>t know it was gonna be a career. i wish i was like my son sometimes, he makes me realize maybe i<u+2019>m not so ambitious.<u+201d> her son is 22. <u+201c>he<u+2019>s the light and the gift,<u+201d> she says. i ask her about the election. <u+201c>me and my husband, we almost don<u+2019>t wanna say it out loud, but we kinda like trump, his ideas. he just doesn<u+2019>t have, what<u+2019>s the word for it? couth?<u+201d> i make my way to clarksburg, the two-hour drive on i-79, empty and wide, the sunset pure and purple and orange against the snow-covered hills, barren for miles and miles except for the little dots of civilization, smoke coming from a house you can<u+2019>t see at first, tire tracks in the dirt. in west virginia, no matter where you are, you never feel far from nowhere. i spend part of my night at the brickside bar & grill, just outside clarksburg, the fifth-largest city in the first district. population, according to the 2010 census: 16,578. state motto: jewel of the hills. denny<u+2019>s locations: one. at brickside, i meet a man named steve. steve asks tammy, the bartender, for some menu guidance. <u+201c>you can<u+2019>t go wrong with the steak hoagie,<u+201d> she says. <u+201c>we have a sriracha-agave wing sauce, it<u+2019>s sriracha, agave, and spices they won<u+2019>t tell me about,<u+201d> tammy says. steve makes a face that says, <u+201c>secret recipes are bullshit.<u+201d> then he asks her if they still make the fried-bologna sandwich. they do. he orders that, and an order of the wings. he tells tammy, <u+201c>make sure they don<u+2019>t cook the hell out of the wings. you know these pre-cooked wings, you don<u+2019>t need to cook them for 10 minutes like they say.<u+201d> steve is a managing partner at the outback steakhouse near clarksburg, so as a purveyor of mass-consumed deep-fried products, he is something of an expert. <u+201c>i<u+2019>ve worked in restaurants all my life,<u+201d> he says. the conversation turns to the imperiled local economy. steve, by way of explanation, quotes a scene from dumb and dumber in which jim carrey<u+2019>s and jeff daniels<u+2019>s characters come back to their apartment after a day hunting for employment. he recites daniels<u+2019>s line: <u+201c>i can<u+2019>t believe there<u+2019>s no jobs in this town.<u+201d> then carrey<u+2019>s: <u+201c>yeah, unless you wanna work 40 hours a week.<u+201d> his sentences tend to start peacefully, calculated, then the words gather like storm clouds, heading toward a profanity, pieces of crust from his fried bologna sandwich falling onto his black pittsburgh steelers sweatshirt. <u+201c>what this country is right now is a hornet<u+2019>s nest.<u+201d> he has some more sandwich; we drink beer. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m all about conservation, you know. i love to fish, i love the beauty of nature. but china, japan, you think they give a shit about the environment? but we<u+2019>re supposed to?<u+201d> he continues, <u+201c>it<u+2019>s the hypocrisy of it all. you know, like hollywood. you remember clint eastwood, he gets up there [at the republican national convention in 2012] and he gets shredded. and he<u+2019>s never been late on a movie set, he<u+2019>s never been over budget. but he gets shredded. but then you have some of these actors up there, these motherfuckers all think they<u+2019>re statesmen, and some of them didn<u+2019>t even finish high school.<u+201d> before he leaves, he gives me a list of places to visit around town; it<u+2019>s one of the few moments in our conversation he speaks with an unrestrained love for something. this will keep happening to me, people talking about the decency of other west virginians and ordinary-seeming food as if it were a dream they had. outside at the brickside, there is an enclosed patio with heat lamps and stationary towers that have flames spitting out of them. a guy with dark bushy hair dances sloppily to <u+201c>love shack<u+201d> by the b-52s as someone else sings it in karaoke. the waitress says to tammy, <u+201c>that kid outside is kinda cute.<u+201d> <u+201c>yeah?<u+201d> tammy says. the waitress adds, <u+201c>i think that<u+2019>s because he<u+2019>s sort of hipster-ish, i don<u+2019>t know.<u+201d> this, apparently, is progressivism in west virginia: semi-unkempt hair and an earring. the d.j. shouts, <u+201c>we got some nicki minaj coming at you!,<u+201d> and the crowd cheers like it hasn<u+2019>t all night, like it<u+2019>s preparing to bungee jump over the waters of rap music and dangle there for a few moments. then a bunch of west virginians with identical buzz cuts dance like they have nausea. someone does the raise-the-roof motion. a pretty, tall blonde woman in a snug leather jacket indulges a dozen half-advances from guys in hats bearing logos for golf brands or sporting-goods chains. i go back to the hotel; my room looks out over a gas station and a place called eat<u+2019>n park. its sign reads: <u+201c>calories don<u+2019>t count if they smile.<u+201d> the next day, as i<u+2019>m walking around downtown clarksburg, i see a tall man in his 70s, jim hileman, standing in the entrance of the lord<u+2019>s pantry food bank. hileman is a trump supporter: <u+201c>i support the man because he<u+2019>s crazy like me.<u+201d> then he laughs in a tone somewhere between mall santa claus and batman villain hatching a diabolical plan. he<u+2019>s been helping at the food pantry for about 10 years. he started out volunteering after he left his job at a funeral home, then he just kept doing it. he tells me to get to ritz lunch at some point to try their hot dogs. you have never heard people speak so fondly, so intimately about hot dogs. not, like, the nuances of them, but their very existence, the way you would talk about a grandmother or an old labrador. it<u+2019>s part reverence, part nostalgia. i have never cared as much about anything as this man did about a hot-dog recommendation. it was sincere and beautiful, him imparting this to someone, a kind of treasure map. two men are talking at a table when i walk into the bluebird store. <u+201c>tobacco by itself probably doesn<u+2019>t even cause all those cancers<u+2014>it<u+2019>s the chemicals,<u+201d> a man says. he finishes eating and leans back in his chair. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s a pretty good lunch right there now. that<u+2019>s like a dinner.<u+201d> it isn<u+2019>t a bad lunch, it must be said. i ask a woman named pam if i can sit down and eat next to her and her friend. i tell her the purpose of this story and she almost deflates in her chair. donald trump alters her posture, literally. <u+201c>we always get dumped on,<u+201d> she says. <u+201c>there<u+2019>s this idea of [west virginians] as bumpkins or whatever, but kentucky has rural areas, too, you know? no one thinks of them like this. i hate to see us in a poll like that leading for trump because it almost makes us look dumber. . . . at first i thought: wow, he<u+2019>ll go where no one else goes. we need that. but the more i hear him the more i think he<u+2019>s just dangerous.<u+201d> across town, there are people trudging through the snow, pushing strollers around puddles, catching their breath outside the dairy queen. i walk into the humane society thrift store. there are bottles of half-used lotion, open boxes of band-aids for sale, a playpen full of stuffed animals, a bookshelf with a bundle of plastic bags tacked to it and a sign that reads, in black marker, <u+201c>books 50<u+00a2> bag.<u+201d> next to the cash register: a donald j. trump<u+2013>brand shirt that looks like everything he has ever worn. white cuffs and white collar, a shade of blue that is just a little brighter and bluer than it needs to be. a volunteer named joyce insani looks at it and says, <u+201c>is anyone even gonna buy this shirt?<u+201d> another volunteer named becky steptoe walks by. <u+201c>careful what you say about our next president,<u+201d> she says. i ask becky if she likes that idea. <u+201c>well the country is a business. i think we need a businessman to run it.<u+201d> joyce is wearing a fleece vest the color of pink jelly beans. i ask her what she thinks. <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t really know what to think about him. he<u+2019>s very successful, so he<u+2019>s got to be smart.<u+201d> she<u+2019>s sorting women<u+2019>s tops while she tells me this. <u+201c>but i don<u+2019>t think we<u+2019>ll be able to fix this till we restore our faith in god.<u+201d> there are pockets all over west virginia where business is something simple and utilitarian, practical, hand-painted signs hanging from stores that say <u+201c>junk junk,<u+201d> and beneath it, pots and pans and brooms and plastic lawn chairs. the next day, i head to the northeast, through towns of a few hundred people, towns that are 97 percent white (grafton) and 99 percent (rowlesburg). i pass cemeteries and trucks that look abandoned, rusty machinery in backyards. everywhere there are things leaning, teetering; you might consider this metaphorically, but it is literally true, the houses are breaking. i pass small shops and enterprises, one after another, places called morgan<u+2019>s muffler inspection and dave<u+2019>s autobody; larew<u+2019>s used car, jack<u+2019>s car wash, debbie<u+2019>s pantry, a human with a name who had an idea for a place to do a thing and then did it. i pull into a roadside restaurant in grafton called biggie<u+2019>s. in the magazine rack, behind two candy machines that sell skittles for a quarter, is a december 7 issue of the tabloid the globe. on the cover in all capital letters: <u+201c>impeach obama,<u+201d> and a crosshair over the statue of liberty. there is one other customer inside biggie<u+2019>s; he<u+2019>s a corrections officer at the pruntytown correctional center. he has pale blue eyes and dime-size pupils that make everything he says seem wild and intense and on the verge of recklessness. <u+201c>i like the idea of donald trump. he<u+2019>s going to run it like a business. he don<u+2019>t care who he offends. he<u+2019>s gonna pull no punches. one of the things america was formed on was saying what you feel. we built this country on offending people.<u+201d> he won<u+2019>t give me his name, and i don<u+2019>t make any progress asking a second and third time. <u+201c>you don<u+2019>t need my name.<u+201d> farther east, the town of rowlesburg used to house the largest sawmill factory in the country. now it has a population of 584. three bars are boarded up, the church is closed, and the vfw<u+2019>s walk isn<u+2019>t shoveled. at the sidetracked bar and grill, the bar is empty for the hour i<u+2019>m there. two trains pass. mary goff is standing behind the counter in front of two tap handles: bud light and budweiser. i ask for a budweiser, but they don<u+2019>t have any beer yet; they<u+2019>ve been waiting months for their license. i ask goff what she thinks about trump. <u+201c>he<u+2019>s maybe not the greatest person in the world,<u+201d> she explains, <u+201c>but he<u+2019>s a businessman.<u+201d> when west virginians talk about the man, there is a mystique, an almost shamanistic wisdom granted to <u+201c>business<u+201d> people, anything associated with tycoons or their largesse, the implied clout and sophistication of a new yorker in a shiny pink tie. <u+201c>i<u+2019>ll be honest with you,<u+201d> one college kid named eric tells me later that night, at a bar in morgantown. <u+201c>trump has a ball sack, but i don<u+2019>t know if he knows what the fuck he<u+2019>s doing.<u+201d> his friend, erik, leans in, <u+201c>but can you imagine him approaching, like, saudi arabia or something with that kind of mentality?<u+201d> eric interjects before reason can get in the way. <u+201c>he<u+2019>ll be fine,<u+201d> he says, nodding confidently. and that, really, is its own sort of currency. trump<u+2019>s red-lining testosterone, his brazen dismissals of rivals, the way he duels with other candidates in ways that have nothing to do with policy, but everything to do with something essential about being a human, getting embarrassed and ignored in public. when trump says, <u+201c>rubio, i<u+2019>ve never seen a young guy sweat that much,<u+201d> he<u+2019>s winning in a way that seems irrelevant but also sort of irrefutable. the blue parrot almost never opened in the first place. jeff and john began renovations in march of 2010, but by mid-april the town was trying to stop them. eventually, the county passed an ordinance that prohibited adult-entertainment venues from operating within 2,000 feet of churches, schools, or residential areas, but only after the blue parrot cabaret was grandfathered in. and the county still fought them. six years later, the club<u+2019>s still here. <u+201c>we had a terrible, terrible time,<u+201d> john says. <u+201c>there was no winning or losing. there was only winning. once everything you own is on the line, it<u+2019>s no longer options. it<u+2019>s no longer choices. it<u+2019>s going to work.<u+201d> i<u+2019>m talking to john about how the state<u+2019>s population has hovered at around 2 million for the last 70 years, rounding myself into the same sort of defeatism i<u+2019>ve heard in the people i<u+2019>ve met here. he describes for me how the literal topography, the shape of the earth, restricts what sort of industries can survive. i ask him how it<u+2019>s possible to not walk around mad all the time. then jeff says, from a few steps away, <u+201c>well you do. i think that<u+2019>s why trump appeals.<u+201d> what do you do about any of this? <u+201c>a lot of what gets done in west virginia is through brute force,<u+201d> he says. i imagine all these people left on their own, stranded, forgotten. i think about what albert camus said in the stranger, <u+201c>it was as if that great rush of anger had washed me clean, emptied me of hope, and, gazing up at the dark sky spangled with its signs and stars, for the first time, the first, i laid my heart open to the benign indifference of the universe.<u+201d> i find no bumpkins in west virginia. nor do i find any trump shrines. the only political paraphernalia i see, over three and a half days, is for bernie sanders. instead of the burbling hints of a revolution, i find a pervading sense of resignation. people drift occasionally into states of indignation or anger, but mostly they express ambivalence. these are people who are familiar with dense winter skies, interstates that stretch and bend over the horizon, things that feel all around like they<u+2019>re breaking or on an incline or carved through rock or forest or around rivers. whether trump exists to you as vine superstar, or a political pioneer, or the hellion king in the cockpit of a kamikaze mission, something seems inescapable: this is west virginia, this is its plight, things giant and immovable. and so i imagine you can get mad at the democrats, at the idea of political correctness, at the grinding wheels of bureaucracy, at the notion of people trying to take your guns or your strip club or your job digging coal from the earth. at the passing train that momentarily brings your dying little town to a halt. at the person who keeps asking you for your name. you can be furious at things so big and maddeningly abstract that a tyrannosaur parade float of a man seems like a savior. but sometimes, all you can do is get mad at the mountains. donald trump has zeroed in on america<u+2019>s percolating xenophobic aggression, harnessed the impulses behind it and tried to amplify them, using simple-as-that declarations that he will ban muslims and syrians and build walls, file lawsuits, circling the wagons and rebuilding, transforming. delicate takes time, restraint takes time. sledgehammers get right to it. there are people either tantalized by the mirage, tantalized by a man who would so shamelessly peddle the mirage, or leveled enough by rhetoric and empty idealism that they don<u+2019>t have time for any of it. sometimes the mirage looks pretty, sometimes the mirage looks real, sometimes it<u+2019>s a con and we know it. on the last day of my trip, a man with a beard creeping high up his cheeks and a 30-case of busch light in one hand is on his way out of a convenience store. we talk about presidents. he<u+2019>s holding the door open now with his foot wedged at the bottom, the cuffs of his pants torn and caked with mud, as people come in and out of the store. i ask him if he likes trump, if he likes anyone, if he cares. it<u+2019>s starting to snow. he turns and spits a long stream of black tobacco juice through the air, and then he looks back at me. <u+201c>whoever it is,<u+201d> he says, <u+201c>if they ain<u+2019>t a thief now, they will be by the time they in office.<u+201d> then he<u+2019>s gone. <u+201c>o.k., you, in the third row<u+2026> yes, you<u+2026> i<u+2019>m calling on you<u+2026> yes, that<u+2019>s why i<u+2019>m pointing<u+2026> i<u+2019>m pointing with my finger<u+2026> my finger. this one<u+2026> why would you think i<u+2019>m holding up a cocktail frank?<u+201d> in iowa last january, trump regales voters with a humanizing personal anecdote about how he once bit his right index finger after mistaking it for a half-eaten french fry. a wax figure of <u+201c>duke<u+201d> wayne looks on in disgust as trump strains to reach his fingers all the way around daughter aissa wayne<u+2019>s frankly rather petite shoulder. (fun fact: you could load the barrel of wayne<u+2019>s pistol with 14 of trump<u+2019>s pinkies.) as trump talks straight through a lunch-hour town hall in february, hungry new hampshire voters appear mesmerized by the five chicken-tender-like appendages radiating from his sausage-patty-size palm. greeting voters in iowa city, trump surreptitiously compares his hand to a baby<u+2019>s, a smile of satisfaction and relief slowly spreading across his face. at the 1990 grand opening of the trump taj mahal casino hotel in atlantic city, wee hands try to summon a genie from a giant lamp. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s the motion,<u+201d> trump gamely jokes. at a recent g.o.p. debate in las vegas, trump<u+2019>s <u+201c>fun-size<u+201d> grip fails to circumnavigate chris christie<u+2019>s big, beefy palm. trump attempts to regain alpha-male status by showing the new jersey governor his impression of a doberman pinscher wagging its docked tail. an interesting optical illusion: trump<u+2019>s left hand is actually in the foreground of the picture! more ugly politics in south carolina: trump is forced to refute rumors, traced back to the cruz campaign, that his fingers aren<u+2019>t long enough for christian prayer. trump pretends to enjoy a pork chop on a stick at the 2015 iowa state fair, probably the one place on earth where people won<u+2019>t mistake a pork chop on a stick for trump<u+2019>s third hand. in costume with actress megan mullally at the 2005 emmys, trump wows an audience of hardened entertainment professionals by wrapping his fingers nearly all the way around a pitchfork. some pundits have attributed candidate trump<u+2019>s hawkishness to the fact that, even though his fingers have as many joints as a normal man<u+2019>s, they remain at least an inch short of being able to form a proper peace sign. nothing much to say about the fingers in this picture; just curious why trump<u+2019>s <u+201c>anus mouth<u+201d> face hasn<u+2019>t also become a thing. to this day, clubhouse attendants maintain that trump had to be outfitted with a babe ruth jr. youth league glove for this 1991 appearance at yankee stadium. at this 2005 gala, trump, thinking quickly, uses both hands to keep wife melania from getting a good look at the size of a single puff daddy hand. trump<u+2019>s delicate right hand is nearly crushed by his nine-year-old daughter ivanka<u+2019>s huge, burly mitt at a 1991 event.

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<u+201c>look at how much african american communities are suffering from democratic control. <u+2026> fifty-eight percent of your youth is unemployed, what the hell do you have to lose?<u+201d> <u+201c>he<u+2019>s [trump] saying, <u+2018>how in the world can we abide a 58 percent unemployment rate among african american youth?<u+2019> <u+201d> regular readers of the fact checker know we have written about this figure in some of our round-up fact checks of trump<u+2019>s speeches. but trump continues to use it, and his new campaign manager has now<u+00a0>adopted it as a talking point. since we haven<u+2019>t explored it in depth, we decided to take a<u+00a0>more thorough look at what this figure means, and explain exactly why it doesn<u+2019>t hold water. the official bureau of labor statistics unemployment rate for black youth is 19.2 percent <u+2014> about one-third of the rate trump uses. a<u+00a0>trump campaign official previously told us that they calculated the 58 percent using this data set<u+00a0>from the bureau of labor statistics, calculating the number of people classified as <u+201c>unemployed<u+201d> and <u+201c>not in the labor force<u+201d> as a percentage of the total civilian population. <u+201c>unemployed<u+201d> refers to people who are available for work and actively looking for a job, but don<u+2019>t have one. <u+201c>not in the labor force<u+201d> refers to people who are not looking for jobs because they have given up looking, or are not interested <u+2014> such as students. students working part time while going to school are counted in the <u+201c>employed<u+201d> category. that means trump is counting students who are not looking for work as a part of the <u+201c>unemployed<u+201d> population. technically, those students don<u+2019>t have jobs. but that does not fit the definition of <u+201c>unemployed<u+201d> and is especially problematic for this age group, because the number of people who aren<u+2019>t looking for jobs includes people who are in school full time. consider a 16-year-old high school sophomore, who is going to school full time and engaged in extracurricular activities when not in school. the student doesn<u+2019>t have a job but isn<u+2019>t looking for one. counting the student as <u+201c>unemployed<u+201d> <u+2014> defined as a person who<u+2019>s looking for a job but can<u+2019>t find one <u+2014> doesn<u+2019>t tell you anything about the labor market. <u+201c>no economist, i would think, would feel comfortable using that because it<u+2019>s counting people who may have no interest in having a job,<u+201d><u+00a0>said adam millsap, research fellow for the state and local policy project at george mason university<u+2019>s mercatus center. the bls did not come up with the definition of <u+201c>unemployed<u+201d> out of thin air. it actually reflects an<u+00a0>internationally embraced definition<u+00a0>set by the international labor organization in 1982. if you apply trump<u+2019>s definition to white youth, 49 percent are <u+201c>unemployed.<u+201d><u+00a0>that<u+2019>s five times the official bls unemployment rate (10 percent) for white youth. asians fare worse than blacks using trump<u+2019>s fuzzy math. the bls youth unemployment rate for asians is 9.6 percent, lower than the rate for white youth. but under trump<u+2019>s calculation, the asian youth unemployment rate jumps to 63.6 percent <u+2014> seven times the official rate, and even worse than the 58 percent figure for black youth. see how the calculations for asian, black and white youth compare in this graphic below. (thanks to millsap for helping us with the calculation.) the difference in asian youth rates may reflect a cultural factor, millsap said. fewer asian youths may be<u+00a0>in the labor force because they are more devoted to school and work less, even part time. but their bls unemployment rate may be<u+00a0>lower because asian youth are more successful at finding a job if they look for one. a campaign official<u+00a0>previously told the fact checker that its calculation <u+201c>is a more comprehensive reflection of disengagement from the labor force than the unemployment rate,<u+201d> as it includes those who are not finding work because they are discouraged from previous attempts at employment. but the campaign did not respond to our latest inquiry, specifically for this fact check, for an explanation of why the campaign includes those who are not interested in looking for work (i.e., students). if trump really is interested in the rate of disengagement among black youth, there is an academically accepted measure he<u+00a0>can use. it<u+2019>s<u+00a0>called neet, which stands for <u+201c>neither employed nor in education or training.<u+201d> this measure factors out students altogether, and measures the share of disconnected youth aged 16 to 24. pew research center<u+2019>s drew desilver, who has written about youth unemployment and neets, calculated a 2015 neet rate among black youth 16 to 24 at 20.9 percent of the total civilian non-institutional population, compared with 14.7 percent among white youth of the same age range. youth unemployment is higher among blacks than whites, regardless of the method you use. but trump<u+2019>s figure doesn<u+2019>t show how it<u+2019>s a persistent problem for black youth compared with white youth, and fails to accurately reflect the state of the labor market for black youth 16 to 24 years old. per<u+00a0>trump<u+2019>s math, a 24-year-old college graduate who is actively looking for a job but can<u+2019>t find one is in the same situation as a 16-year-old high school sophomore who is in school full time and going to band practice or playing on a school sports team when not in class. and per<u+00a0>trump<u+2019>s math, more asian youth are unemployed than black youth <u+2014> even though asian youth have a lower official bls unemployment rate than whites or blacks. so trump ends up using a calculation for black youth that greatly exaggerates the actual number of people who can<u+2019>t find a job even though they are trying, while minimizing their rate in the context of asian youth. we previously awarded four pinocchios to trump<u+2019>s absurd calculation that the <u+201c>real unemployment rate<u+201d> is 42 percent <u+2014> about eight times higher than the official bls rate. he applies the same junk analysis for the black youth unemployment rate, which<u+00a0>defies internationally accepted measures of unemployment while ignoring an actual measure of disengaged youth that could prove his point. we award<u+00a0>trump four more pinocchios. send us facts to check by filling out this form sign up for the fact checker weekly newsletter

trump<u+2019>s misleading claim that 58 percent of black youths are unemployed

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in 2008, it was<u+00a0>former gov. tommy thompson of wisconsin,<u+00a0>whom beltway political mavens had built up for years as an exciting republican reformer with big <u+201c>new ideas<u+201d> (like welfare reform and school vouchers). in the wake of the bush debacle, he was especially attractive as an <u+201c>outsider<u+201d> who could make the american people forget what they<u+2019>d just endured. unfortunately, like walker, on the stump thompson was frighteningly unprepared, even making embarrassing gaffes about jews and israel, and he dropped out in august of 2007.<u+00a0>undeterred by this embarrassment, the establishment once again anointed a midwestern governor as the gop<u+2019>s salvation for exactly the same reasons in 2014,<u+00a0>former minnesota gov. tim pawlenty, who also flamed out before any votes were cast. this year it was scott walker, who <u+201c>suspended<u+201d> his campaign yesterday after having been in precipitous free fall from front-runner to last place and facing the prospect of being<u+00a0>booted from the main debate stage and forced to spar with lindsey graham at the kids<u+2019> table next time out. if you don<u+2019>t count gerald ford, who backed into the presidency by being appointed vice president and succeeding nixon when he resigned, the gop has never nominated a governor and only one politician from the midwest<u+00a0>since alf landon back in 1936: senator bob dole in 1996. (and neither of them were<u+00a0>exactly resounding victories <u+2014> landon<u+00a0>only got two<u+00a0>electoral votes and dole was soundly defeated by the incumbent bill clinton.) eisenhower more accurately belonged to the nation, not the region where he was born and his executive experience was in saving the world from fascism so such parochial electoral concerns were not particularly relevant. but while it<u+2019>s true that the modern electoral map is very daunting for the gop, they seem peculiarly fixated on this region. walker took the early lead in the midwestern savior race, but for months people were also talking up michigan gov. rick snyder and indiana gov. mike pence as similarly excellent choices to lead the gop out of the wilderness.<u+00a0> back in 2014, as they all made pilgrimages to the republican governor<u+2019>s association,<u+00a0>politico described them this way: the fact that they seemed to be able to transcend the party<u+2019>s, shall we say,<u+00a0>cruder<u+00a0>side was also a big selling point. as<u+00a0>walker put it<u+00a0>during his apparently impressive appearance: by strong leadership he meant that one should be as crackpot right-wing as one can get away with and not be michele bachmann. and walker was that guy in every way.<u+00a0>the new republic described him this way: he took his marching orders from<u+00a0>the club for growth, americans for prosperity<u+00a0>and<u+00a0>anti- immigration guru jeff sessions.<u+00a0>he had evangelical credentials<u+00a0>equal to those of mike huckabee and rick santorum. his record of union bashing was second to none. and he certainly seemed nice, so nice in fact that he appeared to be something of a grinning simpleton at times,<u+00a0>particularly on social media, where his tweeting of his dinner menus and constant pictures of himself riding on a harley were ruthlessly mocked. while all the constituencies in the party who were presumed to be his greatest fans gave him plenty of chances, his gaffes and flip-flops made them doubt his sincerity and abilities. he had been widely assumed to be the koch brothers<u+2019> choice due to their involvement in the union busting and recall campaign in wisconsin. and they were admittedly very impressed with him until he started making embarrassing mistakes, like saying that<u+00a0>ronald reagan<u+2019>s greatest foreign policy achievement was taking on the air traffic controllers union,<u+00a0>and flip-flopping on immigration several times, finally landing on the opinion that<u+00a0>even<u+00a0>legal<u+00a0>immigration should be ended. not ready for prime time doesn<u+2019>t begin to describe it and<u+00a0>the kochs have known that for a while now. additionally,<u+00a0>for reasons that remain somewhat elusive, the christian right just didn<u+2019>t<u+00a0>trust him. to someone who isn<u+2019>t a member of that club, his tiny deviations from the dogma seemed understandable, but they saw it differently. with other candidates in the race with strong conservative evangelical credentials (as well as trump, who rightly notes that<u+00a0>many evangelicals love him too) that constituency never materialized for him either. and even aside from the now predictable consecration as this year<u+2019>s midwestern savior, the rationale for walker<u+2019>s campaign was built on the fallacy of his alleged prowess in bending the legislature to his will and dominating at the ballot box. apparently, managing to win in years that were national democratic electoral bloodbaths and only being recalled once makes you a giant slayer in the republican party these days. and having a legislative majority that<u+00a0>had been building an agenda and a game plan for many years before you were elected counts as a demonstration of heroic power. (juggling numerous scandals and managing to avoid indictment is likewise considered a useful skill <u+2014> which, come to think of it, it actually is in the gop.) the sad fact is that walker has been the most overrated politician in the country based largely upon the republicans<u+2019> quixotic desire to find a leader who can put a respectable face on its increasingly disreputable base <u+2014> and the media<u+2019>s odd willingness to not believe what their eyes were telling them: that walker was a terrible candidate. like pawlenty and thompson before him, he may have looked good on a powerpoint presentation, but in reality he showed few signs of life on the debate stage or on the stump. the good news for washington<u+2019>s pundits and establishment republicans is that there<u+2019>s still some hope for their midwestern hero scenario to come true in 2016. there is another one in the race: ohio gov.<u+00a0>john kasich.<u+00a0>whether or not he can make the cut is still unknown, but if there<u+2019>s one thing you can say about him, it<u+2019>s that<u+00a0>he<u+2019>s anything but dull. unfortunately, the republican electorate seems mesmerized by <u+201c>outsider<u+201d> amateurs this year so far and kasich is the embodiment of a lifelong politician who took some time out to cash in <u+00a0><u+2014><u+00a0>he<u+2019>s the fourth richest republican running<u+00a0><u+2014><u+00a0>and then jump back in to become governor, and then president. he also has a habit of diluting his hardcore conservatism with some pragmatic deal-making from time to time, which is unlikely to be acceptable unless he adopts some trumpish attitudes about mexicans and muslims to cover it. but whatever happens this time out, for those who believe in the great whitebread hope as the only salvation for a fractured party that needs someone who can convince the country it hasn<u+2019>t gone completely stark raving mad, there<u+2019>s every reason to believe that the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives and the dream shall never die.

scott walker never stood a chance: why this awkward, koch-backed midwesterner was outrageously overrated

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i<u+2019>m not among those republicans who have <u+201c>evolved<u+201d> on the issue of gay rights. i didn<u+2019>t need to. i<u+2019>ve always been attracted to the gop message of more freedom and less government, but thought it hypocritical and counter to the core of our philosophy that republicans would not apply those tenets to gay rights. but of course i was often the black sheep in campaign meetings during the 1990s and 2000s. there goes mckinnon again. taking up for the gays. although <u+201c>gay<u+201d> wasn<u+2019>t the word that was used back then. politically, while it once helped political parties to use gay rights to divide and score political points (and the gop didn<u+2019>t have a monopoly on the issue; remember it was bill clinton who signed the defense of marriage act), the wedge issue has now lost its edge, even, i would argue, in the 2016 republican presidential primary. no republican can win the nomination without the support of the business community. and big business is now at odds with the social conservative faction of the republican party over gay and transgender equality <u+2014> and big business is winning. look at what<u+2019>s happened in four states dominated by the gop in the past year. weeks before the super bowl kickoff in 2014, the arizona legislature passed a bill allowing businesses to refuse service to gay customers. this <u+201c>religious freedom<u+201d> measure made it ok for business owners to kick customers out of their establishments if they opposed homosexuality on religious grounds. scores of corporate titans in the travel and tourism industry, together with the nfl, opposed the bill. gov. jan brewer vetoed it. in indiana this march, lawmakers tried to pass similar legislation, followed by a hell-hath-no-fury response led by eli lilly, salesforce and angie<u+2019>s list, which canceled a $40 million project planned for indianapolis. marriott<u+2019>s ceo said the legislation was <u+201c>pure idiocy from a business perspective.<u+201d> gov. mike pence modified the bill, but the damage was done. (the state has since hired a global pr firm to resuscitate its image following the brouhaha.) in arkansas, same story. seeing the firestorm that occurred in indiana, republican gov. asa hutchinson didn<u+2019>t sign the original bill that hit his desk after calls for him to veto it came from his own son, and from arkansas-based wal-mart, which said the bill ran counter to the company<u+2019>s values. in the end, the governor signed a less toxic, less controversial bill. and this week, texas became the latest to join the fray. the lone star state just wrapped its legislative session, which included two <u+201c>religious freedom<u+201d> constitutional amendments. learning from what happened in the above states, industry groups and major businesses went out pre-emptively <u+2014> let me say that again: pre-emptively <u+2014> before such bills made it too far in the legislature. the conservative state chamber of commerce, the texas association of business, took the lead. the amendments <u+201c>would devastate economic development, tourism and the convention business,<u+201d> said bill hammond, tab<u+2019>s ceo. <u+201c>one has to look no further than indiana to realize what a detriment this would be, and how hard it would be to sell texas to the rest of the country. the super bowl [in houston in 2017], the final four, all those things would be at risk in texas if this were to become part of our constitution.<u+201d> more than 250 texas companies <u+2014> american airlines, dell, texas instruments, dow chemical, the dallas mavericks <u+2014> went on record with a general pledge in support of treating gay and transgender texans fairly and equally under the law <u+2014> and that welcoming and inclusive communities are essential to their bottom line. both amendments in the texas legislature died a quick death. so: four states, same story and same result. if the <u+201c>religious freedom<u+201d> strategy can<u+2019>t work in texas <u+2014> the bastion of conservatism and beacon for business <u+2014> where can it work? it<u+2019>s not news this country has come a long way on lgbt rights. an evolution, a massive one, has taken place. culturally, we<u+2019>ve gone from taboo to tolerance, and in some cities, total embrace. elections are always about the future, never about the past. and so my advice to gop candidates is to recognize that since our society has largely moved on, and business has moved on, so should the party of abraham lincoln, who fought a civil war over civil rights. discrimination is now simply bad for the bottom line and bad for any brand, whether a company<u+2019>s or a state<u+2019>s. when it comes to recruitment and retention, the millennial generation, which will be 75 percent of the workforce by 2030, doesn<u+2019>t have much tolerance for anti-gay anything. in fact, it<u+2019>s become somewhat of a litmus test. 73 percent of millennials support lgbt nondiscrimination, according to public religion research institute. surely, they use it as one criterion when deciding where to work. most businesses now have their own internal nondiscrimination policies for lgbt employees, but they want to see their larger communities in which they operate adopt similar welcoming and inclusive policies. top talent is looking for both a great job and a great quality of life. to most folks, i would venture, that does not mean a city or state that looks the other way when discrimination happens. it<u+2019>s clear from the reaction of many of america<u+2019>s leading corporations, that big business wants to do the right thing for and by employees <u+2014> all of them. and most ceos of the fortune 500 are republicans. so, they are paving the way for more in our party to jump on board with gay rights. if it<u+2019>s good for business, it<u+2019>s generally good for the republican party. negative national headlines on religious freedom continue to fuel a negative image of the entire party. both in my private conversations with and in public (and private) polling, conservatives are moving ever closer to supporting full equity for lgbt americans. gallup<u+2019>s values and beliefs poll released last month showed a more than 20 percentage-point increase since 2001 in americans (63 percent) who believe <u+201c>gay and lesbian relations<u+201d> are <u+201c>morally acceptable<u+201d>. you don<u+2019>t get to a supermajority like that without republicans. even texas conservatives support protecting gay and transgender folks from employment discrimination. republicans, like the rest of americans, support nondiscrimination laws because most of us have gay family members, friends and co-workers and want to treat them as we would want to be treated. and having heard from moms and dads who want this great country to treat their gay child just like their straight child has been a powerful narrative. it really is all about family standing up for one another. most people believe equality under the law can and does work well alongside protecting religious freedom <u+2014> which must be and is protected, even cherished, in our constitution. shockingly, it<u+2019>s still legal in the united states of america, even as we may be on the brink of having marriage equality in all 50 states, to fire and evict gay and transgender folks <u+2014> and kick them out of a restaurant <u+2014> simply for being who they are. this is patently wrong and needs to be fixed. democrats and big business are at work fixing it, together. that would have been an odd pairing years ago. the gop position is untenable <u+2014> and out of step with one of its key constituencies. it<u+2019>s time to stand up to the social conservative wing and move into the future.

we republicans lost on gay rights. that<u+2019>s a good thing.

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iran took a hard stance on two of the biggest demands of world powers in a final nuclear deal thursday, rejecting any extraordinary inspection rules and warning that if the u.s. and other countries re-impose sanctions after the deal is done, it will ramp up enrichment of bomb-making materials. a senior iranian negotiator told reporters outside vienna the u.n. nuclear agency<u+2019>s standard rules governing access to government information, sites of interests and scientists should be sufficient to ensure that iran<u+2019>s program is solely for peaceful purposes. anything beyond that would be unfair, he said. however, the u.s. and some other countries want iran to take the extra step. "we should be realistic," said the iranian official, who briefed members of the news media on condition he not be quoted by name. the man also questioned the legitimacy of countries that don<u+2019>t accept the international atomic energy agency<u+2019>s jurisdiction demanding that iran be subject to tougher requirements than any other nation. ria-novosti reported that russia also backed iran<u+2019>s position that additional inspection guidelines for iran weren<u+2019>t necessary. the official was making a clear reference to israel, a state widely presumed to maintain an undeclared nuclear arsenal. the marker is expected to be a cause for concern for the obama administration and other world powers who are hoping to come to an agreement that would curb iran<u+2019>s atomic program for a decade in exchange for relief from crippling sanctions. the hard stance from iran comes as the head of the iaea visited tehran thursday to deal with issues surrounding the deal and to seek "clarification" of possible military dimensions of programs, the wall street journal reported. <u+201c>i believe that both sides have a better understanding on some ways forward, though more work will be needed,<u+201d> director-general yukiya amano said in a statement. amano's trip, described by both western and iranian officials as potentially important in unlocking a deal, also covered the sensitive issue of access to military sites by iaea inspectors, the journal reported. iran has committed to implementing the iaea<u+2019>s <u+201c>additional protocol<u+201d> for inspections and monitoring as part of an accord. the protocol gives the iaea expanded access to declared and undeclared nuclear sites, and to the sensitive information of more than 120 governments that accept its provisions. however, the rules don<u+2019>t guarantee monitors don<u+2019>t guarantee monitors can enter any site they want to and offer no specific guidelines about sensitive military sites <u+2013> an issue with iran, given the long-standing allegations of secret nuclear weapons work at its parchin base near tehran. instead, the agency<u+2019>s regulations allow governments to challenge such requests and offer alternative proposals for resolving concerns, such as providing additional documents or access to nearby locations. for that reason, u.s. officials maintain that rules for inspection must go beyond those laid out by the iaea for all sides to come to an agreement. even as iran's supreme leader, ayatollah ali khamenei, has defiantly rejected such access, u.s. officials have sought to differentiate between what iranian officials were saying is for domestic consumption and what they were promising in the negotiating room. tehran says its program is solely for peaceful energy, medical and research purposes, but wants a deal to level the mountain sanctions that have crippled its economy. president obama has said the u.s. would maintain its ability to snap sanctions back into place if iran cheats as some officials don<u+2019>t trust iran to hold up its end of the bargain. iran has said that ability goes two ways. if iran is facing the re-imposition of penalties, and the u.s. and its partners don<u+2019>t uphold their commitments to provide economic relief, he said <u+201c>iran has the right to go back to its program as it wishes.<u+201d> the official didn't spell out what that meant, but iran would have several options, such as installing new centrifuges, enriching uranium at levels closer to weapons-grade or restarting activity with material that can be used in warheads where it has pledged to do no such thing. however, the official said the islamic republic would have no need to revert back to its previous capacities if the deal is favorable. russia's deputy foreign minister sergei ryabkov said his government also opposes any automatic re-imposition of international sanctions. russia and the united states are negotiating alongside britain, france, germany and china. there were few public signs of progress as the high-level negotiations entered a sixth day thursday after diplomats blew through a june 30 deadline and extended an interim accord by a week. work was progressing, albeit slowly, officials said. "not at breakthrough moment yet," british foreign secretary philip hammond tweeted. hammond had a morning meeting with u.s. secretary of state john kerry, who also consulted top diplomats from china, france, germany and the european union. kerry met iranian foreign minister mohammad javad zarif late thursday. speaking at the vienna-based organization for security and cooperation in europe, german foreign minister frank-walter steinmeier said all participants had "the serious intention to finalize a deal," but cited numerous unresolved issues. "the last steps are the most difficult ones," he told reporters. negotiators have given themselves until at least july 7 to reach agreement. the associated press contributed to this report

iran takes hard stance on key provisions in nuke deal

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"i think it's pretty clear we're going to embrace whoever the nominee is. i embrace all of these candidates," he told cnn's alisyn camerota wednesday on "new day." "whoever the nominee ends up becoming they're going to join the biggest rnc operation we've put together." priebus said the gop is still pretty divided in its support. "it's a big party. and there are some of our major donors i saw standing behind donald trump. people are competing. and people are endorsing different candidates," he said. priebus said he was not surprised by trump's success in nevada with hispanic voters because the republican party has been working for the past several years to connect with hispanic voters. "we have been obviously working very hard in expanding the republican party in hispanic communities. we're in the middle of hiring 1,300 people right now many of which are going to be in hispanic neighborhoods," he said. "what i have in mind is making sure that we've got a party that doesn't show up in hispanic and black communities and asian communities three months before an election and expect that the brand is going to sell. it won't." priebus also dismissed a washington post editorial taking him to task for not rebuking trump over controversial statements. "that is the stupidest editorial that i have ever seen," he said. "that i'm called out for not beating up the front-runner of the gop ... it's ridiculous." "that's not my job. my job is to put forward the fairest process that we can put forward. to not put my hand on the scale. to allow our delegates to make the choices that they want to make. and then accept the decision that the delegates make," he said.

rnc chairman: 'we're going to embrace whoever the nominee is'

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washington<u+00a0><u+2014> president obama has vetoed the first bill sent to him by congress this year, a symbolic attempt by republicans to repeal the affordable care act and defund abortion provider planned parenthood in an election year. "republicans in the congress have attempted to repeal or undermine the affordable care act over 50 times," obama said in a veto message friday. "rather than refighting old political battles by once again voting to repeal basic protections that provide security for the middle class, members of congress should be working together to grow the economy, strengthen middle-class families, and create new jobs." the bill <u+2014> called the<u+00a0>restoring americans' healthcare freedom reconciliation act of 2015<u+00a0><u+2014><u+00a0>used an obscure budget-writing procedure known as reconciliation to thwart a senate filibuster. that maneuver allowed a bill repealing obamacare to get the president's desk for the first time,<u+00a0>forcing him to make good on repeated veto threats. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s no surprise that someone named obama vetoed a bill repealing obamacare," house speaker paul ryan, r-wis., said, promising a veto override vote "taking this process all the way to the end under the constitution." republicans are far short of the two-thirds votes necessary for an override, however. it passed the senate 52 to 47 and the house<u+00a0>240 to<u+00a0>181. but ryan said the bill proved that obamacare can be repealed, given a republican in the white house. <u+201c>the idea that obamacare is the law of the land for good is a myth," he said.<u+00a0>"we have now shown that there is a clear path to repealing obamacare without 60 votes in the senate. so, next year, if we<u+2019>re sending this bill to a republican president, it will get signed into law." white house press secretary josh earnest said the bill accomplished nothing. "it's<u+00a0>not significant. it got them nothing, and with the stroke of a pen, the president dispensed with it," he said. it was<u+00a0>the eighth veto of obama's presidency, and the white house has issued three more veto threats just this week. in contrast to an elaborate signing ceremony thursday by house speaker paul ryan, obama's veto came in a routine veto message.

obama vetoes gop attempt to repeal obamacare

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