diff --git "a/eastmoney.ipynb" "b/eastmoney.ipynb" deleted file mode 100644--- "a/eastmoney.ipynb" +++ /dev/null @@ -1,3176 +0,0 @@ -{ - "cells": [ - { - "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 5, - "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [], - "source": [ - "import requests\n", - "import uuid\n", - "import time\n", - "import json\n", - "import urllib.request\n", - "from lxml import etree\n", - "import pandas as pd\n", - "from googletrans import Translator\n", - "from transformers import pipeline\n", - "analyzer = pipeline(\"sentiment-analysis\", model=\"ProsusAI/finbert\")\n", - "\n", - "translator = Translator()\n", - "\n", - "def datemodifier(date_string):\n", - " \"\"\"Date Modifier Function\"\"\"\n", - " try:\n", - " to_date = time.strptime(date_string,\"%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S.%f\")\n", - " return time.strftime(\"%Y-%m-%d\",to_date)\n", - " except:\n", - " return False\n", - "\n", - "def fetch_url(url):\n", - " response = requests.get(url)\n", - " if response.status_code == 200:\n", - " return response.text\n", - " else:\n", - " return None\n", - " \n", - "def translist(infolist):\n", - " \"\"\"Translist Function\"\"\"\n", - " out = list(filter(lambda s: s and\n", - " (isinstance (s,str) or len(s.strip()) > 0), [i.strip() for i in infolist]))\n", - " return out\n", - "\n", - "def encode(content):\n", - " \"\"\"Encode Function\"\"\"\n", - " text = ''\n", - " for element in content:\n", - " if isinstance(element, etree._Element):\n", - " subelement = etree.tostring(element).decode()\n", - " subpage = etree.HTML(subelement)\n", - " tree = subpage.xpath('//text()')\n", - " line = ''.join(translist(tree)).\\\n", - " replace('\\n','').replace('\\t','').replace('\\r','').replace(' ','').strip()\n", - " else:\n", - " line = element\n", - " text += line\n", - " return text" - ] - }, - { - "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 6, - "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [ - { - "name": "stdout", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - "AKIAQFXZMGHQYXKWUDWR D2A0IEVl5g3Ljbu0Y5iq9WuFETpDeoEpl69C+6xo\n" - ] - } - ], - "source": [ - "\"\"\"Upload file to dynamoDB\"\"\"\n", - "# import datetime\n", - "from datetime import datetime, timedelta\n", - "from decimal import Decimal\n", - "import boto3\n", - "import os\n", - "\n", - "AWS_ACCESS_KEY_ID = \"AKIAQFXZMGHQYXKWUDWR\"\n", - "AWS_SECRET_ACCESS_KEY = \"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\"\n", - "\n", - "print(AWS_ACCESS_KEY_ID, AWS_SECRET_ACCESS_KEY)\n", - "\n", - "def get_db_connection():\n", - " \"\"\"Get dynamoDB connection\"\"\"\n", - " dynamodb = boto3.resource(\n", - " service_name='dynamodb',\n", - " region_name='us-east-1',\n", - " aws_access_key_id=AWS_ACCESS_KEY_ID,\n", - " aws_secret_access_key=AWS_SECRET_ACCESS_KEY\n", - " )\n", - " return dynamodb\n", - "\n", - "def upsert_content(report):\n", - " \"\"\"Upsert the content records\"\"\"\n", - " dynamodb = get_db_connection()\n", - " table = dynamodb.Table('article_china')\n", - "\n", - " # Define the item data\n", - " item = {\n", - " 'id': str(report['id']),\n", - " 'site': report['site'],\n", - " 'title': report['title'],\n", - " 'originalSite': report['originalSite'],\n", - " 'originalContent': report['originalContent'],\n", - " 'category': \"Macroeconomic Research\",\n", - " 'author': report['author'],\n", - " 'content': report['content'],\n", - " 'publishDate': report['publishDate'],\n", - " 'link': report['url'],\n", - " 'attachment': report['reporturl'],\n", - " 'authorID': str(report['authorid']),\n", - " 'sentimentScore': str(Decimal(report['sentimentScore']).quantize(Decimal('0.01'))),\n", - " 'sentimentLabel': report['sentimentLabel'],\n", - " 'LastModifiedDate': datetime.now().strftime(\"%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%S\")\n", - " }\n", - " response = table.put_item(Item=item)\n", - " print(response)\n", - " # Print the response\n", - " # logger.info(f\"{upsert_content.__name__} - {response}\")" - ] - }, - { - "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 7, - "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [ - { - "name": "stdout", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - "https://reportapi.eastmoney.com/report/jg?cb=datatable8544623&pageSize=100&beginTime=2023-12-16&endTime=2024-03-15&pageNo=0&qType=3\n" - ] - }, - { - "name": "stderr", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - "/home/codespace/.python/current/lib/python3.10/site-packages/transformers/pipelines/text_classification.py:104: UserWarning: `return_all_scores` is now deprecated, if want a similar functionality use `top_k=None` instead of `return_all_scores=True` or `top_k=1` instead of `return_all_scores=False`.\n", - " warnings.warn(\n" - ] - }, - { - "name": "stdout", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - "{'id': UUID('edf8968b-79e9-50a9-bad0-d4a1a8a4a2e9'), 'title': 'Information Accessibility Trends (Issue 2, 2024)', 'author': 'Institute of Industry and Planning, Digital Management Research Department', 'orgName': '中国信息通信研究院', 'orgCode': '80635291', 'orgSName': '中国信通院', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmQnpPs7nePPY8D67Qgka0uU=', 'researcher': '产业与规划研究所,数字化管理研究部', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000433231', '11000436435'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmQnpPs7nePPY8D67Qgka0uU=', 'site': 'China Academy of Information and Communications Technology', 'originalSite': '中国信通院', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827543_1.pdf?1710522904000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827543_1.pdf?1710522904000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Information Accessibility Trends (Issue 2, 2024)', 'originalAuthor': '产业与规划研究所,数字化管理研究部', 'originalContent': '部委动态工业和信息化部指导发布互联网应用适老化优秀案例集2月1日，中国信息通信研究院、数字适老化及信息无障碍联盟在工业和信息化部信息通信管理局部署要求下，以“数字技术增进民生福祉，适老发展助力银发生活”为主题，举办数字技术适老化高质量发展推进会。会议上，中国信息通信研究院与中国互联网协会发布《数字惠民：互联网应用适老化及无障碍实践优秀案例集》（以下简称《案例集》）。《案例集》共收录了38个互联网网站、手机App优秀改造案例，覆盖新闻资讯、社交通讯、生活购物、医疗健康、金融服务、学习教育、交通出行和政务服务八大领域，旨在推广“通用设计理念”与先进经验做法，从方法上启发思路，从模式上提供借鉴，从实践上引导创新，更好地满足老年人、残疾人深层次、多样化的信息交流需求。此外，在会议上三家基础电信企业与多家头部互联网企业等27家单位共同签署“数字技术适老化高质量发展宣言”。同期，数字适老化及信息无障碍联盟启动“2024年数字助老计划”，将优先重点在本地生活、旅游出行、社交通信和医疗健康等领域落地实施。', 'content': 'Ministries and Commissions News The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology guided the release of a collection of outstanding cases of Internet application for aging. On February 1, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology and the Digital Age-Adapted and Information Accessibility Alliance, under the deployment requirements of the Information and Communications Administration of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, With the theme of \"Digital technology improves people\\'s livelihood and well-being, and age-appropriate development supports the lives of seniors\", a promotion conference for the high-quality development of digital technology for age-appropriate development was held. At the meeting, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology and the Internet Society of China released \"Digital Benefiting the People: A Collection of Excellent Practice Cases of Internet Applications for Aging and Accessibility\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Case Collection\"). The \"Case Collection\" contains a total of 38 excellent transformation cases of Internet websites and mobile apps, covering eight major fields: news and information, social communication, life shopping, medical health, financial services, learning and education, transportation and government services, aiming to promote \"universal Design concepts\" and advanced experience and practices inspire ideas in terms of methods, provide reference from models, and guide innovation in practice to better meet the deep-seated and diverse information exchange needs of the elderly and disabled people. In addition, at the meeting, 27 units including three basic telecommunications companies and a number of leading Internet companies jointly signed the \"Declaration on High-Quality Development of Digital Technology for Aging\". At the same time, the Digital Aging and Information Accessibility Alliance launched the \"2024 Digital Assistance Plan\", which will prioritize implementation in areas such as local life, tourism, social communications, and medical health.', 'authorid': UUID('fc3026bc-fccb-5556-b786-e882668b0f90'), 'sentimentScore': 0.1761248093098402, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8KQND44F4164FJ7TCCJMSODGV7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:36:42 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8KQND44F4164FJ7TCCJMSODGV7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3daca595-311e-5d82-8422-3dc6874d6aa1'), 'title': 'Focus on the two sessions, high-end manufacturing policy interpretation: focus on new productivity and build a new digital full industry chain', 'author': 'Wang Yang, Ning Lijie', 'orgName': '联合资信评估股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80002172', 'orgSName': '联合资信', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmeFAp7mt3UIS44pLyZa9/1M=', 'researcher': '王阳,宁立杰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000432842', '11000432841'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmeFAp7mt3UIS44pLyZa9/1M=', 'site': 'United Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '联合资信', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827545_1.pdf?1710522334000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827545_1.pdf?1710522334000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Focus on the two sessions, high-end manufacturing policy interpretation: focus on new productivity and build a new digital full industry chain', 'originalAuthor': '王阳,宁立杰', 'originalContent': '2023年政府工作任务中，“加快建设现代化产业体系”位于第二位，在当前科技产业变革蓄势待发的环境下，2024年政府工作报告在工作任务中，将“大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力”列至首位，并围绕创新链产业链资金链人才链一体部署实施，将“科教兴国战略”列为第二项重要任务。未来，通过集成国家战略科技力量、社会创新资源，关键技术与产业创新的逐步推进，深度推进，有望为高端制造业的发展提供良好的外部环境。', 'content': 'Among the government work tasks in 2023, \"accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system\" ranks second. In the current environment where the technological industry is ready to change, the 2024 government work report will \"vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system\" among the work tasks. \", accelerating the development of new productive forces\" was ranked first, and the \"strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education\" was listed as the second important task around the integrated deployment and implementation of the innovation chain, industrial chain, capital chain and talent chain. In the future, through the integration of national strategic scientific and technological strength, social innovation resources, and the gradual and in-depth advancement of key technologies and industrial innovation, it is expected to provide a good external environment for the development of high-end manufacturing.', 'authorid': UUID('6572575b-a871-5c81-a50c-de577f7f8583'), 'sentimentScore': 0.2047610143199563, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'RVE9T4PTA8HTTGMB9PGF4UJ147VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:36:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'RVE9T4PTA8HTTGMB9PGF4UJ147VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c10a76dc-1782-508f-870b-c26e59d65162'), 'title': '2023 Urban Basic and Public Service APP Traffic Monitoring Report', 'author': 'TMT Beijing Special Team', 'orgName': '艾瑞股份', 'orgCode': '80365131', 'orgSName': '艾瑞股份', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmWls7UAiuvlRLZo7zOC4eiQ=', 'researcher': 'TMT北京专项组', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000456232'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmWls7UAiuvlRLZo7zOC4eiQ=', 'site': 'iResearch', 'originalSite': '艾瑞股份', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827538_1.pdf?1710521918000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827538_1.pdf?1710521918000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '2023 Urban Basic and Public Service APP Traffic Monitoring Report', 'originalAuthor': 'TMT北京专项组', 'originalContent': '城市基础及公共服务类应用整体发展现状：截至2023年末，中国移动互联网月独立设备数已连续数月保持在约13.9亿的水平，整体流量增长已经遇到瓶颈，但城市基础及公共服务类APP却凭借其独特的优势保持着高速增长态势。主要原因是其能满足用户日益多样化的需求，提供一体化服务，并通过实施“大APP战略”，即通过整合各类资源和服务到一个综合应用中，提升用户体验、实现资源的高效整合与成本的降低，同时为用户提供更多便捷的服务可能性。这种策略使得城市基础���公共服务类APP在竞争激烈的移动互联网市场中脱颖而出，保持了强劲的增长势头。', 'content': 'The overall development status of urban basic and public service applications: As of the end of 2023, the number of monthly independent devices of China Mobile Internet has remained at about 1.39 billion for several consecutive months. The overall traffic growth has encountered a bottleneck, but urban basic and public service APPs However, it has maintained a rapid growth trend by virtue of its unique advantages. The main reason is that it can meet the increasingly diverse needs of users, provide integrated services, and implement the \"big APP strategy\", that is, by integrating various resources and services into a comprehensive application to improve user experience and achieve efficient integration of resources. and cost reduction, while providing users with more convenient service possibilities. This strategy allows urban basic and public service apps to stand out in the highly competitive mobile Internet market and maintain strong growth momentum.', 'authorid': UUID('6dd93ba4-3651-5f77-81f5-1d8a522ee525'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8192497426643968, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '31DA6URVSV113QLAJ49O7HDCQNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:36:47 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '31DA6URVSV113QLAJ49O7HDCQNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('651af450-4440-5e5c-b6fa-403932013c9c'), 'title': 'Liquidity Tracking Weekly Report', 'author': 'Xu Ying, Lin Yonglu', 'orgName': '麦高证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80049237', 'orgSName': '麦高证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmUxggl1sNKQ5zPB0lIeQXm8=', 'researcher': '徐滢,林永绿', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000449878', '11000449879'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmUxggl1sNKQ5zPB0lIeQXm8=', 'site': 'Mago Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '麦高证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827021_1.pdf?1710516419000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827021_1.pdf?1710516419000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Liquidity Tracking Weekly Report', 'originalAuthor': '徐滢,林永绿', 'originalContent': '上周公开市场净投放6320亿元，本周有11640亿元逆回购到期上周（2024年2月26日—2024年3月3日）央行公开市场净投放6320亿元，其中7天逆回购投放11640亿元，到期5320亿元，维持1.80%利率水平。本周（2024年3月4日—2024年3月8日）有11640亿元的逆回购到期。R007与DR007利差小幅下跌，交易所回购利率上行R001均值为2.07%，较前一周上行11.50BP，DR001均值为1.71%较前一周上行5.86BP。DR007加权均价的均值为1.85%，较前一周上行3.47BP。R007加权均价的均值为2.13%，较前一周上行3.04BP。二者收盘价利差（R007-DR007）收于-0.05BP，较前一周下行0.06BP。交易所回购利率上行，GC007均值为2.13%，较前一周上行2.64BP。同业存单发行总额减少，平均票面利率下行上周同业存单到期量有所减少，为5174.30亿元（前一周为5229.10亿元），发行数量减少至633只，实际发行总额为5734.30亿元（前一周为11226.80亿元）。平均票面利率下行2.23BP至2.24%。风险提示：政策超预期、金融监管超预期等。', 'content': 'Last week, there was a net investment of 632 billion yuan in the open market, and 1,164 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired this week. Last week (February 26, 2024 - March 3, 2024), the central bank had a net investment of 632 billion yuan in the open market, of which 7 days The reverse repurchase investment amounted to 1.164 billion yuan, with a maturity of 532 billion yuan and an interest rate of 1.80%. This week (March 4, 2024 - March 8, 2024), 1.164 billion yuan of reverse repurchases expired. The spread between R007 and DR007 fell slightly. The exchange repurchase rate increased. The average value of R001 was 2.07%, an increase of 11.50 BP from the previous week. The average value of DR001 was 1.71%, an increase of 5.86 BP from the previous week. The average weighted average price of DR007 is 1.85%, an increase of 3.47BP from the previous week. The average weighted average price of R007 was 2.13%, an increase of 3.04BP from the previous week. The closing price difference between the two (R007-DR007) closed at -0.05BP, down 0.06BP from the previous week. The exchange repurchase rate increased, with the average value of GC007 being 2.13%, an increase of 2.64BP from the previous week. The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit decreased, and the average coupon rate fell. The maturity amount of interbank certificates of deposit decreased last week, to 517.430 billion yuan (previous week: 522.910 billion yuan). The number of issuances decreased to 633, and the actual total issuance was 573.430 billion yuan (previous week: 522.910 billion yuan). 1.12268 billion yuan a week). The average coupon rate fell by 2.23BP to 2.24%. Risk warning: Policies exceed expectations, financial supervision exceeds expectations, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('117b2061-d9f1-5a06-93ac-5937039d112f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.03218412585556507, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KE2LLL2VNIKE7TQGE6AULLVMK7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:36:49 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KE2LLL2VNIKE7TQGE6AULLVMK7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('18a9f5c1-3459-57f9-8011-4a65a093e280'), 'title': 'U.S. Economy: Retail sales slow, goods inflation rebounds', 'author': 'Ye Bingnan, Liu Zehui', 'orgName': '招银国际金融有限公司', 'orgCode': '80027629', 'orgSName': '招银国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmWfm2y+JTvZVfMtHhGqUqH0=', 'researcher': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000395738', '11000444841'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmWfm2y+JTvZVfMtHhGqUqH0=', 'site': 'CMB International Capital Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招银国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826910_1.pdf?1710515201000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826910_1.pdf?1710515201000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. Economy: Retail sales slow, goods inflation rebounds', 'originalAuthor': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'originalContent': '美国2月零售环比增长0.6%，低于市场预期的0.8%，过去两月增速大幅下修，显示商品消费温和放缓。但PPI环比增速超预期，因供应链扰动和中欧经济回升推动能源和航运价格反弹。商品通胀反弹可能制约近期去通胀速度。首次领取失业金人数仍处于历史低位，但持续领取失业金人数接近历史高位，就业市场将平缓降温。系列数据公布后，10年国债收益率大幅上行至近4.3%，美元指数走强，货币市场对6月降息概率预期保持在60%左右。近期通胀和就业数据令美联储有更多理由在3月和5月议息会议上保持政策利率不变。随着第二季度经济持续降温，6月可能迎来首次降息。我们维持全年降息100个基点的预测。零售数据表现不及预期。美国2月零售和食品服务销售季调环比反弹0.6%，低于市场预期的0.8%。12月与1月的环比增速分别从0.55%和-0.8%大幅下调至0.11%和-1.05%，显示消费放缓趋势。2月零售反弹主要由于机动车及零部件、建筑材料和加油站，三者环比增速分别从1月的-2.1%、-4.3%和-1.4%反弹至2月的1.6%、2.2%和0.9%。除机动车及零部件和加油站外的零售环比增涨0.3%。核心零售环比持平，低于市场预期的0.4%。电子产品与家用电器零售保持较快增长，但家具、服装和网购等零售环比走弱。食品服务和餐吧作为零售中的服务业消费，在连续两个月环比下跌后2月环比增长0.45%。总体来看，零售数据显示家庭商品消费更明显的放缓迹象。PPI环比增速超预期，因能源和航运价格反弹。PPI最终需求环比涨幅从1月的0.3%扩大至0.6%，高于市场预期。其中能源商品环比大涨4.4%，不包括食品、能源和贸易服务价格的核心PPI上涨0.4%，核心商品价格连续第二个月环比上涨0.3%，而核心服务环比涨幅从1月的0.8放缓至0.5%。从同比数据来看，PPI最终需求和核心PPI的同比涨幅分别从1月的1%和2.6%反弹至1.6%和2.8%。受石油减产、红海事件等供应因素和中国、欧洲经济低位回升等需求因素影响，近期能源与航运价格反弹，推动美国PPI连续两月高于预期，CPI中商品价格见底回升，可能制约短期内去通胀速度，预计2月PCE通胀可能略超预期，美联储有更多理由在近期保持利率不变。领取失业金人数新增季节性调整因素。领取失业金人数数据在3月新增了季节性因素调整，历史数据变得更加平滑。3月第二周的首次申请失业金人数小幅下降0.1万人至20.9万人，过去四周平均仍处于历史低点，显示美国裁员水平依然较低。3月第一周的持续领取失业金人数环比增加1.7万人至181.1万人，过去四周平均数据保持2022年以来高位，显示美国企业招工节奏放缓，未来失业率可能小幅回升。就业市场正在温和放缓，预计未来随着经济进一步降温，劳动力市场供求将更趋平衡，薪资增速将逐渐回落，推动消费增速放缓。经济将温和降温，第二季度可能更��明显。美国经济自2023年下半年以来延续超预期表现，通胀回落速度慢于市场预期。但零售与PMI数据显示经济降温迹象。随着银行系统超额流动性和信贷增速不断下降，第二季度美国经济降温可能更加明显。美联储可能避免在临近大选前的第三季度实施货币政策转向，6月可能首次降息。我们维持全年降息100个基点左右的预测，年末联邦基金利率降至4.3%左右。美国名义GDP增速可能从2023年的6.3%降至2024年的4%，2024-2025年潜在名义GDP增速为4.2%左右，预计10年国债收益率从2023年末的3.9%降至2024年末的3.75%和2025年的3.6%。', 'content': 'U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month in February, lower than market expectations of 0.8%. The growth rate in the past two months has been revised sharply, indicating a moderate slowdown in commodity consumption. However, the month-on-month growth rate of PPI exceeded expectations, as supply chain disruptions and economic recovery in China and Europe drove a rebound in energy and shipping prices. The rebound in commodity inflation may restrict the speed of deflation in the near future. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time is still at a historical low, but the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits is close to a historical high, and the job market will cool down slowly. After the series of data were released, the 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply to nearly 4.3%, the U.S. dollar index strengthened, and the money market’s expectation of a June interest rate cut remained at around 60%. Recent inflation and employment data have given the Fed more reason to keep policy rates unchanged at its March and May interest rate meetings. As the economy continues to cool in the second quarter, June may see the first interest rate cut. We maintain our forecast of a 100 basis point interest rate cut for the full year. Retail sales data fell short of expectations. U.S. retail and food services sales rebounded by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in February, lower than market expectations of 0.8%. The month-on-month growth rates in December and January were significantly reduced from 0.55% and -0.8% to 0.11% and -1.05% respectively, indicating a trend of slowing consumption. The rebound in retail sales in February was mainly due to motor vehicles and parts, construction materials and gas stations. The month-on-month growth rates of the three rebounded from -2.1%, -4.3% and -1.4% in January to 1.6%, 2.2% and 1.4% respectively in February. 0.9%. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts and gas stations increased by 0.3% month-on-month. Core retail sales were flat month-on-month, below market expectations of 0.4%. The retail sales of electronic products and household appliances maintained rapid growth, but the retail sales of furniture, clothing and online shopping weakened month-on-month. Food services and restaurants and bars, as service industry consumption in retail, increased by 0.45% month-on-month in February after falling month-on-month for two consecutive months. Overall, retail sales data show more obvious signs of slowdown in household consumption of goods. The month-on-month growth rate of PPI exceeded expectations due to rebound in energy and shipping prices. The month-on-month increase in final PPI demand expanded to 0.6% from 0.3% in January, which was higher than market expectations. Among them, energy commodities rose 4.4% month-on-month. The core PPI excluding food, energy and trade service prices rose 0.4%. Core commodity prices rose 0.3% month-on-month for the second consecutive month, while the month-on-month increase in core services slowed down from 0.8 in January. to 0.5%. Judging from year-on-year data, the year-on-year growth rates of PPI final demand and core PPI rebounded from 1% and 2.6% in January to 1.6% and 2.8% respectively. Affected by supply factors such as oil production cuts and the Red Sea incident, as well as demand factors such as the economic recovery in China and Europe, the recent rebound in energy and shipping prices has pushed the U.S. PPI to be higher than expected for two consecutive months. Commodity prices in the CPI have bottomed out and rebounded, which may restrict the short-term Regarding the speed of de-inflation, it is expected that PCE inflation in February may be slightly higher than expected, and the Federal Reserve has more reasons to keep interest rates unchanged in the near future. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits adds a seasonal adjustment factor. The data on the number of people receiving unemployment benefits added seasonal adjustments in March, and the historical data became smoother. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the second week of March dropped slightly by 1,000 to 209,000. The average number of people filing for unemployment benefits over the past four weeks is still at a historical low, indicating that the level of layoffs in the United States is still low. The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits in the first week of March increased by 17,000 from the previous month to 1.811 million. The average data over the past four weeks has remained at the highest level since 2022, indicating that the pace of recruitment by US companies has slowed down and the unemployment rate may rebound slightly in the future. The job market is slowing down moderately. It is expected that as the economy cools further in the future, supply and demand in the labor market will become more balanced, and wage growth will gradually decline, driving consumption growth to slow down. The economy will cool modestly, perhaps more significantly in the second quarter. The U.S. economy has continued to outperform expectations since the second half of 2023, and inflation has fallen slower than market expectations. But retail sales and PMI data showed signs of a cooling economy. As excess liquidity in the banking system and credit growth continue to decline, the cooling of the U.S. economy may become more pronounced in the second quarter. The Federal Reserve may avoid implementing a monetary policy shift in the third quarter before the election, and may cut interest rates for the first time in June. We maintain our forecast of an interest rate cut of around 100 basis points throughout the year, with the federal funds rate falling to around 4.3% by the end of the year. The U.S. nominal GDP growth rate may fall from 6.3% in 2023 to 4% in 2024. The potential nominal GDP growth rate in 2024-2025 is about 4.2%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is expected to fall from 3.9% at the end of 2023 to the end of 2024. 3.75% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2025.', 'authorid': UUID('08f97a71-1879-5f33-a1aa-79c7a17d8bf9'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8727751150727272, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '6LO2CIVCJ3LFEVDC9253131UQFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:36:52 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '6LO2CIVCJ3LFEVDC9253131UQFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f17cdd71-1c69-583d-98d5-c1bb7d4a8e04'), 'title': 'Macro Research Weekly Report: The two sessions will be held this week, and the market may continue to fluctuate.', 'author': 'Xu Ying', 'orgName': '麦高证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80049237', 'orgSName': '麦高证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmTzrYX2XbHtMAZKyAElN9uI=', 'researcher': '徐滢', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000449878'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmTzrYX2XbHtMAZKyAElN9uI=', 'site': 'Mago Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '麦高证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826722_1.pdf?1710511154000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826722_1.pdf?1710511154000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Research Weekly Report: The two sessions will be held this week, and the market may continue to fluctuate.', 'originalAuthor': '徐滢', 'originalContent': '上周国内主要新闻：1.中国人民银行召开做好金融五篇大文章工作座谈会。2.西班牙巴塞罗那召开的2024年世界移动通信大会上汇聚于主题为“算力网络：智能网络赋能智慧世界”的专题论坛。3.证监会推动区域性股权市场建立与全国性证券交易场所的产品衔接和制度性对接机制。4.证监会党委书记、主席吴清主持召开资本市场法治建设座谈会，就完善资本市场基础制度、加强法治保障听取意见建议。5.国家统计局发布数据显示，2月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.1%，比上月下降0.1个百分点。上周国际主要新闻：1.高盛与穆巴达拉携手启动10亿美元亚太私募信贷投资合作。2.日本1月核心CPI同比上升2%。3.美联储柯林斯表示，基准情景是美联储将于今年降息。4.新西兰联储维持基准利率在5.5%不变，连续第五次暂停加息，符合市场预期。5.俄罗斯央行最终委员决定保持利率不变。一周市场回顾：沪深两市春节前后连续反弹，强势特征明显，沪指更是连续收复几个整数关口，站上3000点。上周的市场经过连续多日反弹后，反弹力度减弱，呈现高位横盘震荡走势，周五收盘沪市仍在3000点上方。值得注意的，上周两市日均成交额在万亿元以上，北向资金更是创一年以来较高的单周流入额，而且北向资金已经连续5周呈现净流入，增量资金入市推动题材股走高，价值股则有所回落。本轮市场反弹更多的是基于资本市场政策发力叠加两会预期，以及海外市场的良好表现，投资者对于资本市场信心增强，入市意愿较强。本周两会即将召开，从目前市场的运行看，市场情绪较为积极，两会期间，市场或将延续震荡走势，但考虑春节前市场开始反弹，反弹至今涨幅较大，震荡回调在所难免，后续看两会政策的定调以及金融数据的情况，市场在经历政策预期之后，终将会落在经济修复和企业盈利的数据上，可关注受益于两会概念的新质生产力相关题材股。风险提示：政策不及预期，国际贸易政策风险，地缘政治冲突风险。', 'content': 'Main domestic news last week: 1. The People\\'s Bank of China held a symposium on five major financial articles. 2. At the 2024 Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, \\u200b\\u200bSpain, they gathered at a special forum with the theme of \"Computing Network: Intelligent Network Empowers a Smart World\". 3. The China Securities Regulatory Commission promotes the establishment of product connection and institutional docking mechanisms between regional equity markets and national securities trading venues. 4. Wu Qing, Secretary and Chairman of the Party Committee of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, presided over a symposium on the construction of the rule of law in the capital market to listen to opinions and suggestions on improving the basic system of the capital market and strengthening the protection of the rule of law. 5. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) in February was 49.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Major international news last week: 1. Goldman Sachs and Mubadala jointly launched a US$1 billion Asia-Pacific private credit investment cooperation. 2. Japan’s core CPI increased by 2% year-on-year in January. 3. Fed Collins said the baseline scenario is that the Fed will cut interest rates this year. 4. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.5%, suspending interest rate increases for the fifth consecutive time, in line with market expectations. 5. The final members of the Russian Central Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Weekly market review: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued to rebound around the Spring Festival, with obvious strong characteristics. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index even regained several integer marks in a row, standing above 3,000 points. After rebounding for many consecutive days last week, the market rebound weakened and showed a high and sideways trend. The Shanghai stock market closed above 3,000 points on Friday. It is worth noting that the average daily trading volume of the two cities last week was more than one trillion yuan, and northbound capital inflows hit the highest level in a year. Moreover, northbound capital has shown net inflows for five consecutive weeks, driven by the entry of incremental funds into the market. Theme stocks rose while value stocks retreated. This round of market rebound is more based on the capital market policy and the expectations of the two sessions, as well as the good performance of overseas markets. Investors have increased confidence in the capital market and have a strong willingness to enter the market. The two sessions are about to be held this week. Judging from the current market operation, the market sentiment is relatively positive. During the two sessions, the market may continue to fluctuate. However, considering that the market began to rebound before the Spring Festival, and the rebound has so far increased significantly, a volatile correction is inevitable. Follow-up With regard to the setting of the policy tone of the Two Sessions and the situation of financial data, after experiencing policy expectations, the market will eventually fall on the data of economic recovery and corporate profits. You can pay attention to stocks related to new productivity that benefit from the concept of the Two Sessions. Risk warning: policies that fall short of expectations, international trade policy risks, and geopolitical conflict risks.', 'authorid': UUID('a7f043a0-c180-553f-9a30-81d8998aa3b6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.10617803130298853, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '1H22ME596U0UI79AL3CHKLM0KRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:36:54 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '1H22ME596U0UI79AL3CHKLM0KRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ff46ab96-736c-5a56-9887-f8a6919ec107'), 'title': 'International data tracking: U.S. non-farm employment cools, unemployment rate rises unexpectedly', 'author': 'Xu Jingya,Cao Shiqi', 'orgName': '南京证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000051', 'orgSName': '南京证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmecUz+CB3G84obpf5YZ+tIs=', 'researcher': '徐静雅,曹世棋', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000411231', '11000442938'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmecUz+CB3G84obpf5YZ+tIs=', 'site': 'Nanjing Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '南京证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826717_1.pdf?1710515957000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826717_1.pdf?1710515957000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'International data tracking: U.S. non-farm employment cools, unemployment rate rises unexpectedly', 'originalAuthor': '徐静雅,曹世棋', 'originalContent': '美国非农就业降温。美国2月新增非农就业人数超预期，在前值下修下实现增长，但有所降温。2月美国新增非农就业人数达27.5万人，高于预期的19万人。1月新增非农下修了12.4万人，导致2月环比多增4.6万人。就业的最大支撑项依然是保健和社会援助，其中医疗保健就业人数占比在七成左右。后续来看，新冠过后流行病明显增多，后遗症及其触发的其他基础疾病对医疗保健的需求仍能支持其保持一定就业规模的扩张。预计未来医疗保健就业能够围绕目前中枢水平小幅震荡。其次的支撑项是住宿餐饮，其中餐饮是主要的增长项，占比超九成。猜测原因可能来自于旅游和出差等的增长，因为与其相关的酒店住宿、航空运输、旅游观光交通、过境和地面客运均出现不同程度的就业增长。美国劳动力供需结构改善。美国2月失业率抬头，劳动力供需结构得到进一步改善，逐渐趋于平衡。2月美国失业人数大幅增加，失业率提升至3.9%，超过市场预期3.7%。实际失业率与自然失业率计算的劳动力缺口回升至-0.52%，去年至今的走势是逐步收敛。美国职位空缺数从去年至今呈缓慢下行趋势，最近也是连续2个月回落，1月已从降至886.3万个。1月职位空缺数与失业人数计算口径得出的劳动力缺口和去年四季度的3个月相比是有所放大的，但2月在失业人数大幅增加背景下，该缺口大概率会收窄。2月平均时薪同比小幅回落至4.28%，环比大幅下降至0.14%，反映了劳动报酬增长的韧性减弱，就业市场逐步降温。风险提示：美国经济韧性超预期，地缘政治风险，美国财政债务压力凸显，金融部门流动性风险。', 'content': 'U.S. non-farm employment has cooled. The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in February exceeded expectations and increased despite a downward revision to the previous value, but it has cooled down. The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States reached 275,000 in February, higher than the expected 190,000. New non-agricultural employment in January was revised down to 124,000, resulting in an increase of 46,000 from the previous month in February. The biggest support for employment is still health care and social assistance, of which health care employment accounts for about 70%. In the future, the epidemic will increase significantly after the new crown epidemic, and the demand for medical care due to the sequelae and other basic diseases triggered by it can still support the expansion of maintaining a certain employment scale. It is expected that health care employment will fluctuate slightly around the current central level in the future. The second supporting item is accommodation and catering, of which catering is the main growth item, accounting for over 90%. It is speculated that the reason may come from the growth of tourism and business trips, because related hotel accommodation, air transportation, tourism transportation, transit and ground passenger transportation have all experienced varying degrees of employment growth. The labor supply and demand structure in the United States has improved. The unemployment rate in the United States increased in February, and the labor supply and demand structure further improved and gradually became balanced. The number of unemployed people in the United States increased significantly in February, with the unemployment rate rising to 3.9%, exceeding market expectations of 3.7%. The labor gap calculated between the actual unemployment rate and the natural unemployment rate has rebounded to -0.52%, and the trend since last year has gradually converged. The number of job vacancies in the United States has been on a slow downward trend since last year, and has recently fallen for two consecutive months, falling from 8.863 million in January. The labor gap calculated based on the number of job vacancies and the number of unemployed people in January was enlarged compared with the three months in the fourth quarter of last year. However, in February, against the background of a significant increase in the number of unemployed people, the gap is likely to narrow. The average hourly wage in February fell slightly to 4.28% year-on-year and dropped sharply to 0.14% month-on-month, reflecting the weakening resilience of labor remuneration growth and the gradual cooling of the job market. Risk warning: The resilience of the U.S. economy exceeds expectations, geopolitical risks, prominent U.S. fiscal debt pressure, and liquidity risks in the financial sector.', 'authorid': UUID('b2efc2af-3d99-51ba-8361-3770c0b4d165'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7568733468651772, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'K7KBDVQ73SDJNM6CDOPJ03C4RVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:36:58 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'K7KBDVQ73SDJNM6CDOPJ03C4RVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6ce54411-7811-51ae-8f57-5b185dace414'), 'title': 'High-tech manufacturing macro weekly report: Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index turned from falling to rising', 'author': 'Shao Xingyu, Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmRro+rnJkh3oxCK1KjKDlec=', 'researcher': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257974', '11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmRro+rnJkh3oxCK1KjKDlec=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826715_1.pdf?1710511246000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826715_1.pdf?1710511246000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'High-tech manufacturing macro weekly report: Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index turned from falling to rising', 'originalAuthor': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数转跌为涨。截至2024年3月9日当周，国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数A录得0.2，较上周上涨；国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数B为59.4，较上周上涨；扩散指数C为-16.01，较上周上涨。从分项看，本周六氟磷酸锂、丙烯腈价格上涨，新能源、航空航天行业景气度上行；动态随机存储器价格下跌，半导体行业景气度下行；中关村电子产品价格指数、6-氨基青霉烷酸价格不变，计算机、医药行业景气度不变。高技术产业跟踪方面：高技术制造业高频数据跟踪上，6-氨基青霉烷酸价格330元/千克，与上周持平；丙烯腈价格9800元/吨，较上周上涨200元/吨；动态随机存储器（DRAM）价格1.0730美元，较上周下跌0.009美元；晶圆（Wafer）价格最新一期报3.59美元/片，较上周上涨0.15美元；六氟磷酸锂价格6.60万元/吨，较上周上涨0.25万元/吨；中关村电子产品价格指数:液晶显示器最新一期报91.04，与上周持平。总结来看，新能源、航空航天景气度上行，半导体行业景气度下行，医药、计算机行业景气度保持不变。高技术制造业政策动向上，据央视新闻3月4日消息，记者从国家医保局获悉，国家医保局高度关注“互联网+”医疗服务创新发展。目前，全国各省份均已印发“互联网＋”医疗服务价格政策文件，各地开展的远程会诊、孕期诊断、部分常见病、慢性病的复诊等“互联网+”医疗服务.“互联网＋”医疗服务纳入定点协议管理的范围。在省级以上卫生健康、中医药管理部门相关规定框架下，开展“互联网+”医疗服务的医疗机构可以通过其依托的实体医疗机构，自愿向所在统筹地区医保经办机构申请签订“互联网＋”医疗服务医保补充协议。截至2023年5月底，浙江省定点医疗机构中可提供线上医保结算的互联网医院达到148家，北京已有74家定点医疗机构可开展互联网诊疗医保支付。高技术制造业前沿动态上，据科技日报3月8日消息，3月8日，中国海油宣布，在南海珠江口盆地发现我国首个深水深层大油田——开平南油田，探明油气地质储量1.02亿吨油当量。该油田是全球核杂岩型凹陷最大的商业发现，展现了南海深水勘探的广阔前景，进一步夯实了我国海上油气资源储量基础，对于保障国家能源安全具有重要意义。开平南油田位于南海东部海域开平凹陷，距离深圳市约300公里，平均水深超过500米，最大井深4831米，油品性质为轻质原油。发现井钻遇油气层100.6米，测试平均日产油气超过1000吨油当量，刷新了我国深水深层油气测试产量纪录。风险提示：高技术制造业发展和结构调整带来指标失灵；经济政策和产业政策干预；经济增速下滑。', 'content': 'Core view: Guosen\\'s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index turned from falling to rising. In the week ending March 9, 2024, Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index A recorded 0.2, an increase from last week; Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index B was 59.4, an increase from last week; diffusion index C was -16.01, An increase from last week. In terms of items, the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and acrylonitrile increased this week, and the prosperity of new energy and aerospace industries rose; the price of dynamic random access memory fell, and the prosperity of the semiconductor industry declined; Zhongguancun electronic product price index, 6-aminopenicillanic acid price The prosperity of the computer and pharmaceutical industries remains unchanged. High-tech industry tracking: According to the high-frequency data tracking of high-tech manufacturing, the price of 6-aminopenicillanic acid is 330 yuan/kg, the same as last week; the price of acrylonitrile is 9,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week. ; The price of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) was US$1.0730, down US$0.009 from last week; the price of wafer (Wafer) was reported at US$3.59/piece in the latest issue, up US$0.15 from last week; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 66,000 yuan/ton, up from the previous week Weekly increase of 2,500 yuan/ton; Zhongguancun Electronic Products Price Index: The latest issue of LCD monitors reported 91.04, the same as last week. In summary, the prosperity of new energy and aerospace is rising, the semiconductor industry is declining, and the pharmaceutical and computer industries remain unchanged. Regarding high-tech manufacturing policy trends, according to CCTV News on March 4, reporters learned from the National Medical Insurance Bureau that the National Medical Insurance Bureau pays close attention to the innovative development of \"Internet +\" medical services. At present, all provinces across the country have issued \"Internet +\" medical service price policy documents, and \"Internet +\" medical services such as remote consultation, pregnancy diagnosis, and follow-up visits for some common diseases and chronic diseases are carried out in various places. \"Internet +\" medical services are included in designated locations. The scope of agreement management. Under the framework of relevant regulations of the health and traditional Chinese medicine management departments at or above the provincial level, medical institutions that provide \"Internet +\" medical services can voluntarily apply to sign \"Internet +\" with the local medical insurance agency through the physical medical institutions they rely on. Medical Services Medicare Supplement Agreement. As of the end of May 2023, there are 148 Internet hospitals in designated medical institutions in Zhejiang Province that can provide online medical insurance settlement, and there are 74 designated medical institutions in Beijing that can carry out Internet diagnosis and treatment and medical insurance payment. On the frontier of high-tech manufacturing, according to Science and Technology Daily on March 8, CNOOC announced on March 8 that my country’s first large deep-water oil field, the Kaiping South Oilfield, was discovered in the Pearl River Mouth Basin in the South China Sea, and the oil and gas geology was proven. Reserves are 102 million tons of oil equivalent. This oil field is the largest commercial discovery in a nuclear complex-type depression in the world, showing broad prospects for deep-water exploration in the South China Sea, further consolidating my country\\'s offshore oil and gas resource reserves, and is of great significance to ensuring national energy security. Kaiping South Oilfield is located in the Kaiping Depression in the eastern part of the South China Sea, about 300 kilometers away from Shenzhen City. The average water depth exceeds 500 meters, and the maximum well depth is 4,831 meters. The oil product is light crude oil. The discovery well was drilled into an oil and gas layer of 100.6 meters, and the average daily oil and gas production in the test exceeded 1,000 tons of oil equivalent, setting a new record for my country\\'s deep water and deep oil and gas test production. Risk warning: The development and structural adjustment of high-tech manufacturing industry will lead to indicator failure; economic policy and industrial policy intervention; economic growth will decline.', 'authorid': UUID('326df97e-9b51-50f7-9a96-c9f92117a326'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9219820257276297, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '2BMD5FS32RA119HJC3M0H4ARKNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:01 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '2BMD5FS32RA119HJC3M0H4ARKNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3ce94f65-645b-5b51-aad4-b76f112339db'), 'title': 'Comments on trade data from January to February 2024: The export trend is strong at the beginning of the year, and its sustainability remains to be seen.', 'author': 'Feng Lin', 'orgName': '东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司', 'orgCode': '80117870', 'orgSName': '东方金诚', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmdBrUzImJkJF7JT0/Js2pI4=', 'researcher': '冯琳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000282735'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmdBrUzImJkJF7JT0/Js2pI4=', 'site': 'Oriental Jincheng International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东方金诚', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826711_1.pdf?1710515415000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826711_1.pdf?1710515415000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on trade data from January to February 2024: The export trend is strong at the beginning of the year, and its sustainability remains to be seen.', 'originalAuthor': '冯琳', 'originalContent': '事件：根据海关部署公布的数据，以美元计价，2024年1-2月出口额同比增长7.1%，2023年12月同比为2.3%；1-2月进口额同比增长3.5%，2023年12月同比为0.2%。具体解读如下：一、1-2月出口额同比增长7.1%，超出市场预期，延续了去年四季度以来的改善势头。主要原因是近期外需有所改善，我国对美国、东盟等主要经济体出口增速大幅上扬，以及汽车出口增速保持高位。不过，伴随上年同期基数大幅抬升，3月出口额同比增速有可能转负。尽管今年发达经济体将普遍转向降息，全球贸易趋于回暖，但在全球经济增长乏力的前景下，我国出口恐难现持续大幅增长，外需对宏观经济的拉动作用不宜过度高估。另外，欧盟正在对中国出口增速较快的新能源汽车展开反补贴调查，具体进程和结果值得重点关注。着眼于推动外贸质升量稳，下一步政策面将加大对外贸出口企业的支持力度，重点是改善出口企业面临的政策和制度环境。以人民币计价，1-2月进、出口额同比增速分别为10.3%和6.7%，与同期以美元计价的增速差主要源于过去一年中人民币兑美元有所贬值。1、以美元计价，1-2月出口额同比增速为7.1%，较上年12月增速大幅加快4.8个百分点，超出市场普遍预期。在上年同期增速基数有所抬高的背景下，这主要源于今年开年出口增长动能较强。环比来看，今年1-2月出口额较去年12月增长73.9%，大幅高于过去10年平均52.3%的环比增长水平。背后有两个原因：首先是外需方面，1-2月以来摩根大通全球制造业PMI指数持续处于荣枯平衡线上方，结束了此前连续16个月的收缩状态，显示开年外需边际改善。可以看到，作为重要的商品出口国，1-2月越南、韩国出口也整体保持正增长势头，且增速较去年四季度有所加快。其次是商务部信息显示，今年春节前出现的出口小高峰一直延续到了春节期间，家电、汽车等重点产品出口订单好于预期。2、从主要出口目的地来看，开年我国对美国出口大幅改善，是拉动整体出口表现超预期的一个重要原因。1-2月我国对美出口额同比增长5.0%，在上年同期基数变化不大的背景下，同比增速较上年12月大幅加快11.9个百分点，主要与近期美国经济走势偏强，进口需求增长较快有关。数据显示，1-2月Markit美国制造业PMI指数都处于扩张区间，而此前曾连续两个月收缩。另外，这也可以从年初韩国对美国出口增速加快中得到印证。不过，1-2月我国对欧盟和日本出口增速继续处于低位，分别为-1.3%和-9.7%，与去年12月相比变化不大。可以看到，年初以来欧洲经济运行态势偏弱，继续影响对我国商品的进口需求；而近期我国对日本出口持续处于较大幅度下滑状态，源于当前日本经济增长主要由商品和服务出口推动，其国内制造业和消费偏弱，进口需求不振。发展中经济体方面，1-2月我国整体出口拉动最大的因素来自对我国头号贸易伙伴东盟的出口同比增长6.0%，在上年同期增速基数有所抬高的背景下，同比增速较去年12月大幅加快12.1个百分点。中国物流信息中心数据显示，2024年2月份亚洲制造业PMI为50.3%，较上月微幅下降0.1个百分点，连续2个月保持在50%以上，其中马来西亚、印度尼西亚、越南都呈改善态势。另外我们估计,RCEP(《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》)对我国与东盟贸易的促进效应进一步释放，也可能产生了一定积极影响。1-2月我国对印度出口同比大幅增长12.8%，增速较上年12月加快一倍；对俄罗斯出口同比也大幅增长12.5%。前者主要与印度经济增长动能较强、进口需求增加有关；后者原因与去年类似，主要是在国际制裁加剧背景下，俄罗斯将从欧洲等地的商品进口转向我国，这尤其体现在当前俄罗斯从我国进口汽车大幅增长等方面。3、1-2月汽���出口延续高位，出口新动能继续保持强势。1-2月汽车（包括底盘）出口量同比增速为22.1%，出口额同比增速为12.6%，主要受绝对基数水平大幅抬高影响，增速分别较上年12月放缓13.2和39.4个百分点，但出口额增速仍然明显高于整体出口额增长水平。背后是2021年以来，我国在新能源汽车领域实现“弯道超车”，加之具有突出的价格优势，在包括欧盟等发达经济体在内的全球新能源汽车市场的占比大幅提升，传统燃油汽车出口则在俄罗斯市场实现高速增长。4、展望未来，伴随基数大幅抬升，预计3月出口额同比增速有可能由正转负，预计将在-5.0%左右，且短期内难以转正。可以看到，2月官方制造业PMI指数中的新出口订单指数为46.3%，较上月下降0.9个百分点，降至2023年下半年以来的底部区域。我们判断，尽管今年发达经济体将普遍转向降息，全球贸易趋于回暖，但在全球经济增长乏力的前景下，我国出口恐难现持续大幅增长。预计2024年全年出口增速会在4.0%左右，外需对宏观经济的拉动作用不宜过度高估。今年政策面将加大对外贸出口的支持力度，着力改善出口企业面临的政策和制度环境。其中，今年我国将努力完成和东盟自贸区3.0版的谈判，完成与秘鲁的自贸协定升级谈判，还将和海湾合作委员会、新西兰、韩国、瑞士进行自贸谈判或者升级谈判。另外，针对当前增长较快的跨境电商出口，监管层也会有针对性地完善通关、税收、外汇等政策，加快构建适应跨境电商发展的供应链和生态圈，鼓励外贸新业态发展。值得注意的是，去年10月欧盟启动从中国进口新能源汽车反补贴调查，调查预计将在启动后的13个月内完成,而且可能在今年7月就开始征收临时关税，预计关税水平将从目前的10%升至20%，而美国也在酝酿类似措施。事实上，今年一些国家还有可能针对我国出口的太阳能组件启动类似的调查措施，或将对我国快速增长的“新三样（电动载人汽车、锂电池、太阳能电池）”出口带来较为严重的影响。二、1-2月进口额同比延续正增且增速较去年12月加快，主要与去年同期基数走低有关，同时，年初出口高增以及原油等部分大宗商品价格回升也对进口额增长起到一定推动作用。考虑到当前实际进口需求仍然偏弱，近期进口增速回升的趋势能否持续仍有待观察。以美元计价，2024年1-2月进口额同比增长3.5%，延续了去年12月的同比正增长势头，且增速加快了3.3个百分点。主要原因是去年同期基数较低——受疫情等因素影响，2023年1-2月进口额同比下降10.0%。从环比表现来看，1-2月累计进口额是去年12月1.76倍，在历年同期中处于较低水平。根据我们测算，2014-2023年10年间，1-2月进口额相比上年12月的倍数平均为1.84倍。这表明，今年1-2月我国进口额环比表现要小幅弱于季节性，同比增速超预期主要与低基数有关。这也反映于1-2月官方制造业PMI进口指数仍处较深收缩区间。从主要商品进口情况来看，（1）1-2月原油进口额同比增长2.8%，增速较去年12月加快7.3个百分点。由于OPEC+持续减产、IMF等主要机构上调2024年全球经济增速预期等因素提振国际油价回升，1-2月我国原油进口价格同比降幅收窄；同时，当期进口量同比也较去年12月有所提速，共同推动进口额同比增速加快。（2）铁矿石方面，1-2月铁矿石进口价格虽继续上扬，但因去年同期基数走高，同比涨幅较去年12月明显收敛，加之进口量同比也有所放缓，当期铁矿石进口额同比增速较去年12月大幅下滑25.8个百分点至22.8%。（3）集成电路方面，1-2月进口额同比增长15.3%，增速较去年12月大幅加快18.7个百分点，主要原因是去年同期进口量价基数都比较低，以及全球电子周期上行。今年1-2月铁矿石进口量同比增速明显加快、进口价格同比跌幅出现大幅收敛。（4）大豆方面，1-2月大豆进口量和进口价格同比降幅均有所扩大，拖累进口额同比降幅从去年12月的-19.1%扩大至-22.2%。整体上看，1-2月进口额同比延续正增且增速加快，这主要与去年同期基数走低有关。同时，考虑到我国对外贸易具有“大进大出”特征，加工贸易占比较高，年初出口高增也会带动进口增速加快。另外，近期原油等部分大宗商品价格回升也对进口额增长起到一定推动作用。不过，在房地产投资延续低迷、终端消费有待进一步提振背景下，当前国内进口需求仍然较弱，实质性增强的迹象尚不明显，这也意味着，近期进口增速回升的趋势能否持续仍有待观察。我们判断，3月节后制造业企业、基建等全面开工有望提振进口需求边际上行，但料难以抵消基数抬升对当月进口同比表现的下拉作用。预计3月进口额同比增速将较1-2月累计增速有所放缓，不排除小幅转负的可能。', 'content': '事件：根据海关部署公布的数据，以美元计价，2024年1-2月出口额同比增长7.1%，2023年12月同比为2.3%；1-2月进口额同比增长3.5%，2023年12月同比为0.2%。具体解读如下：一、1-2月出口额同比增长7.1%，超出市场预期，延续了去年四季度以来的改善势头。主要原因是近期外需有所改善，我国对美国、东盟等主要经济体出口增速大幅上扬，以及汽车出口增速保持高位。不过，伴随上年同期基数大幅抬升，3月出口额同比增速有可能转负。尽管今年发达经济体将普遍转向降息，全球贸易趋于回暖，但在全球经济增长乏力的前景下，我国出口恐难现持续大幅增长，外需对宏观经济的拉动作用不宜过度高估。另外，欧盟正在对中国出口增速较快的新能源汽车展开反补贴调查，具体进程和结果值得重点关注。着眼于推动外贸质升量稳，下一步政策面将加大对外贸出口企业的支持力度，重点是改善出口企业面临的政策和制度环境。以人民币计价，1-2月进、出口额同比增速分别为10.3%和6.7%，与同期以美元计价的增速差主要源于过去一年中人民币兑美元有所贬值。1、以美元计价，1-2月出口额同比增速为7.1%，较上年12月增速大幅加快4.8个百分点，超出市场普遍预期。在上年同期增速基数有所抬高的背景下，这主要源于今年开年出口增长动能较强。环比来看，今年1-2月出口额较去年12月增长73.9%，大幅高于过去10年平均52.3%的环比增长水平。背后有两个原因：首先是外需方面，1-2月以来摩根大通全球制造业PMI指数持续处于荣枯平衡线上方，结束了此前连续16个月的收缩状态，显示开年外需边际改善。可以看到，作为重要的商品出口国，1-2月越南、韩国出口也整体保持正增长势头，且增速较去年四季度有所加快。其次是商务部信息显示，今年春节前出现的出口小高峰一直延续到了春节期间，家电、汽车等重点产品出口订单好于预期。2、从主要出口目的地来看，开年我国对美国出口大幅改善，是拉动整体出口表现超预期的一个重要原因。1-2月我国对美出口额同比增长5.0%，在上年同期基数变化不大的背景下，同比增速较上年12月大幅加快11.9个百分点，主要与近期美国经济走势偏强，进口需求增长较快有关。数据显示，1-2月Markit美国制造业PMI指数都处于扩张区间，而此前曾连续两个月收缩。另外，这也可以从年初韩国对美国出口增速加快中得到印证。不过，1-2月我国对欧盟和日本出口增速继续处于低位，分别为-1.3%和-9.7%，与去年12月相比变化不大。可以看到，年初以来欧洲经济运行态势偏弱，继续影响对我国商品的进口需求；而近期我国对日本出口持续处于较大幅度下滑状态，源于当前日本经济增长主要由商品和服务出口推动，其国内制造业和消费偏弱，进口需求不振。发展中经济体方面，1-2月我国整体出口拉动最大的因素来自对我国头号贸易伙伴东盟的出口同比增长6.0%，在上年同期增速基数有所抬高的背景下，同比增速较去年12月大幅加快12.1个百分点。中国物流信息中心数据显示，2024年2月份亚洲制造业PMI为50.3%，较上月微幅下降0.1个百分点，连续2个月保持在50%以上，其中马来西亚、印度尼西亚、越南都呈改善态势。另外我们估计,RCEP(《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》)对我国与东盟贸易的促进效应进一步释放，也可能产生了一定积极影响。1-2月我国对印度出口同比大幅增长12.8%，增速较上年12月加快一倍；对俄罗斯出口同比也大幅增长12.5%。前者主要与印度经济增长动能较强、进口需求增加有关；后者原因与去年类似，主要是在国际制裁加剧背景下，俄罗斯将从欧洲等地的商品进口转向我国，这尤其体现在当前俄罗斯从我国进口汽车大幅增长等方面。3、1-2月汽车出口延续高位，出口新动能继续保持强势。1-2月汽车（包括底盘）出口量同比增速为22.1%，出口额同比增速为12.6%，主要受绝对基数水平大幅抬高影响，增速分别较上年12月放缓13.2和39.4个百分点，但出口额增速仍然明显高于整体出口额增长水平。背后是2021年以来，我国在新能源汽车领域实现“弯道超车”，加之具有突出的价格优势，在包括欧盟等发达经济体在内的全球新能源汽车市场的占比大幅提升，传统燃油汽车出口则在俄罗斯市场实现高速增长。4、展望未来，伴随基数大幅抬升，预计3月出口额同比增速有可能由正转负，预计���在-5.0%左右，且短期内难以转正。可以看到，2月官方制造业PMI指数中的新出口订单指数为46.3%，较上月下降0.9个百分点，降至2023年下半年以来的底部区域。我们判断，尽管今年发达经济体将普遍转向降息，全球贸易趋于回暖，但在全球经济增长乏力的前景下，我国出口恐难现持续大幅增长。预计2024年全年出口增速会在4.0%左右，外需对宏观经济的拉动作用不宜过度高估。今年政策面将加大对外贸出口的支持力度，着力改善出口企业面临的政策和制度环境。其中，今年我国将努力完成和东盟自贸区3.0版的谈判，完成与秘鲁的自贸协定升级谈判，还将和海湾合作委员会、新西兰、韩国、瑞士进行自贸谈判或者升级谈判。另外，针对当前增长较快的跨境电商出口，监管层也会有针对性地完善通关、税收、外汇等政策，加快构建适应跨境电商发展的供应链和生态圈，鼓励外贸新业态发展。值得注意的是，去年10月欧盟启动从中国进口新能源汽车反补贴调查，调查预计将在启动后的13个月内完成,而且可能在今年7月就开始征收临时关税，预计关税水平将从目前的10%升至20%，而美国也在酝酿类似措施。事实上，今年一些国家还有可能针对我国出口的太阳能组件启动类似的调查措施，或将对我国快速增长的“新三样（电动载人汽车、锂电池、太阳能电池）”出口带来较为严重的影响。二、1-2月进口额同比延续正增且增速较去年12月加快，主要与去年同期基数走低有关，同时，年初出口高增以及原油等部分大宗商品价格回升也对进口额增长起到一定推动作用。考虑到当前实际进口需求仍然偏弱，近期进口增速回升的趋势能否持续仍有待观察。以美元计价，2024年1-2月进口额同比增长3.5%，延续了去年12月的同比正增长势头，且增速加快了3.3个百分点。主要原因是去年同期基数较低——受疫情等因素影响，2023年1-2月进口额同比下降10.0%。从环比表现来看，1-2月累计进口额是去年12月1.76倍，在历年同期中处于较低水平。根据我们测算，2014-2023年10年间，1-2月进口额相比上年12月的倍数平均为1.84倍。这表明，今年1-2月我国进口额环比表现要小幅弱于季节性，同比增速超预期主要与低基数有关。这也反映于1-2月官方制造业PMI进口指数仍处较深收缩区间。从主要商品进口情况来看，（1）1-2月原油进口额同比增长2.8%，增速较去年12月加快7.3个百分点。由于OPEC+持续减产、IMF等主要机构上调2024年全球经济增速预期等因素提振国际油价回升，1-2月我国原油进口价格同比降幅收窄；同时，当期进口量同比也较去年12月有所提速，共同推动进口额同比增速加快。（2）铁矿石方面，1-2月铁矿石进口价格虽继续上扬，但因去年同期基数走高，同比涨幅较去年12月明显收敛，加之进口量同比也有所放缓，当期铁矿石进口额同比增速较去年12月大幅下滑25.8个百分点至22.8%。（3）集成电路方面，1-2月进口额同比增长15.3%，增速较去年12月大幅加快18.7个百分点，主要原因是去年同期进口量价基数都比较低，以及全球电子周期上行。今年1-2月铁矿石进口量同比增速明显加快、进口价格同比跌幅出现大幅收敛。（4）大豆方面，1-2月大豆进口量和进口价格同比降幅均有所扩大，拖累进口额同比降幅从去年12月的-19.1%扩大至-22.2%。整体上看，1-2月进口额同比延续正增且增速加快，这主要与去年同期基数走低有关。同时，考虑到我国对外贸易具有“大进大出”特征，加工贸易占比较高，年初出口高增也会带动进口增速加快。另外，近期原油等部分大宗商品价格回升也对进口额增长起到一定推动作用。不过，在房地产投资延续低迷、终端消费有待进一步提振背景下，当前国内进口需求仍然较弱，实质性增强的迹象尚不明显，这也意味着，近期进口增速回升的趋势能否持续仍有待观察。我们判断，3月节后制造业企业、基建等全面开工有望提振进口需求边际上行，但料难以抵消基数抬升对当月进口同比表现的下拉作用。预计3月进口额同比增速将较1-2月累计增速有所放缓，不排除小幅转负的可能。', 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'核心观点：我国乡村数字经济迈入新阶段，数字养殖重视度提升。我国自2015年开始对乡村数字经济探索，2021年以来进入深化阶段。2021年我国数字乡村发展水平已达39.1%，农业生产信息化率达25.4%，取得显著成效。畜禽养殖链为当前农业行业关注重点。在数字养殖方面，我国出台多项文件大力推动畜禽养殖行业向集约化、自动化、标准化、信息化、智能化方向转型。2021年我国畜禽养殖信息化率达34%，生猪和家禽养殖信息化率分别为36.9%和36.4%。数智化成为我国畜牧业转型升级、高质量发展的必然要求和发展趋势。我国养殖业处初级智能阶段，数字养殖助力降本增效。数字养殖是工业中智能制造理念向养殖业的迁移，本质上是一种全新的、复杂协同的知识自动化系统，是畜牧业的第三次革命。目前我国工厂化养猪处于初级智能阶段，农业机器人也处于起步阶段，但从市场供需和增长来看，2015年至今我国农业机器人始终保持供不应求的状态，2022年农业机器人市场规模约11.46亿元（同比+37.58%），未来我国农业机器人和数字养殖市场增长空间广阔。数字养殖转型升级的必要性在于改善我国畜牧业现存的诸多问题，例如我国中小规模养殖场占比高，其抗风险能力较弱；养殖信息化程度低；母猪生产效率指标较发达国家水平有较大差距（21年我国PSY均值18.3头，同期美国26.1头）；养殖成本方面，我国饲料成本、仔猪成本、人工成本均较发达国家水平有显著差距等。而数字养殖的效果在于能使劳动生产率提高30%以上，每头出栏生猪降低约150元成本，从而大幅提升我国畜牧业生产效率和产品质量。上市猪企发力数字养殖，牧原股份为数字化转型引领者。数字养殖的行业转型趋势为猪企的养殖场数智化升级带来了难得的发展机遇，有利于增强竞争优势、提高市场份额。上市猪企中，牧原股份、温氏股份、巨星农牧、神农集团、唐人神、新希望、大北农等均已开展数字养殖项目规划和建设，多数于2023年启动项目资金募集。其中牧原股份的数字养殖起步早、起点高、优势显著。牧原通过六大主体共同搭建数智化平台，22年智能装备累计接入160万台，累计服务猪群规模超6000万。从降本增效的具体成果看，数字养殖的应用使得牧原的母猪年提供断奶仔猪提高1.2头，头均药费降低41.79元；饲喂全程节约人工成本12.48元/头，增加利润24.89元/头；板下清粪机器人的使用预计可为10万全线场一年节省30万元的粪水处理费用等。投资建议：在数字时代背景下，生猪养殖模式与管理方式将迎来崭新的变革，人力依赖或将逐步减少，主观能动性问题亦将随之减少，猪群健康状况提升，带来养殖效率的全面升级。我国头部猪企中以牧原股份为领先代表，其一具备行业领先的成本控制能力；其二养殖规模行业首位，市占率由0.25%提升至8.78%。其三公司领先布局数字化养殖体系，数智化平台的运用是保证规模扩张下成本端有效控制的手段之一。同时公司持续引进数智化专业人才为后续更强大的数字养殖体系提供支撑。其四数据为未来核心驱动力，作为业内领先具备数据意识的猪企，将掌握更多的数据，实现更优迭代。基于上述分析，叠加考虑估值历史低位因素，可积极关注牧原股份（002714.SZ）。', 'content': \"Core point of view: my country's rural digital economy has entered a new stage, and digital farming has received increased attention. My country began to explore rural digital economy in 2015 and has entered a deepening stage since 2021. In 2021, my country's digital rural development level has reached 39.1%, and the informatization rate of agricultural production has reached 25.4%, achieving remarkable results. The livestock and poultry breeding chain is the focus of the current agricultural industry. In terms of digital breeding, my country has issued a number of documents to vigorously promote the transformation of the livestock and poultry breeding industry in the direction of intensification, automation, standardization, informatization, and intelligence. In 2021, the informatization rate of my country's livestock and poultry breeding will reach 34%, and the informatization rate of pig and poultry breeding will be 36.9% and 36.4% respectively. Digital intelligence has become an inevitable requirement and development trend for the transformation and upgrading and high-quality development of my country's animal husbandry industry. my country's breeding industry is at the primary stage of intelligence, and digital breeding helps reduce costs and increase efficiency. Digital breeding is the migration of intelligent manufacturing concepts in industry to the breeding industry. It is essentially a new, complex and collaborative knowledge automation system, and is the third revolution in animal husbandry. At present, my country's factory-based pig farming is in the primary intelligence stage, and agricultural robots are also in their infancy. However, from the perspective of market supply, demand and growth, my country's agricultural robots have always been in short supply since 2015. The agricultural robot market size in 2022 will be approximately 1.146 billion yuan ( +37.58% year-on-year), my country’s agricultural robot and digital breeding market has broad room for growth in the future. The necessity of digital breeding transformation and upgrading lies in improving many existing problems in my country's animal husbandry industry. For example, my country's small and medium-sized farms account for a high proportion and their ability to resist risks is weak; the degree of informatization in breeding is low; sow production efficiency indicators are lower than those in developed countries. There is a big gap (the average PSY in my country in 2021 was 18.3 heads, and the United States was 26.1 heads in the same period); in terms of breeding costs, my country's feed costs, piglet costs, and labor costs are all significantly different from the levels of developed countries. The effect of digital breeding is that it can increase labor productivity by more than 30% and reduce the cost of each pig for slaughter by about 150 yuan, thus greatly improving the production efficiency and product quality of my country's livestock industry. Listed pig companies are focusing on digital farming, and Muyuan Co., Ltd. is the leader in digital transformation. The industry transformation trend of digital farming has brought rare development opportunities to the digital and intelligent upgrade of pig farms, which is conducive to enhancing competitive advantages and increasing market share. Among the listed pig companies, Muyuan Co., Ltd., Wen's Co., Ltd., Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Shennong Group, Tangrenshen, New Hope, Dabeinong, etc. have all carried out digital breeding project planning and construction, and most will start project fund raising in 2023. Among them, Muyuan's digital farming started early, with a high starting point and significant advantages. Muyuan has jointly built a digital intelligence platform through six major entities. In 22 years, a total of 1.6 million units of intelligent equipment have been connected, and the cumulative number of pig herds served exceeds 60 million. Judging from the specific results of cost reduction and efficiency improvement, the application of digital breeding has enabled Muyuan’s sows to provide 1.2 more weaned piglets per year, and the average drug cost per head has been reduced by 41.79 yuan; the entire feeding process has saved labor costs of 12.48 yuan/head, and increased profits by 24.89 yuan. / head; the use of under-slab manure cleaning robots is expected to save 300,000 yuan a year in manure and water treatment costs for the entire 100,000-line site. Investment advice: In the context of the digital age, pig breeding models and management methods will usher in new changes. Manpower dependence may be gradually reduced, subjective initiative problems will also be reduced, and the health of the pig herds will be improved, bringing about a comprehensive improvement in breeding efficiency. upgrade. Among the top pig companies in my country, Muyuan Co., Ltd. is the leading representative. Firstly, it has industry-leading cost control capabilities; secondly, it ranks first in the industry in terms of breeding scale, with its market share increasing from 0.25% to 8.78%. The third company is taking the lead in laying out a digital breeding system, and the use of digital and intelligent platforms is one of the means to ensure effective cost control under scale expansion. At the same time, the company continues to introduce digital intelligence professionals to provide support for a more powerful digital breeding system in the future. The fourth data is the core driving force in the future. As a leading data-aware enterprise in the industry, it will master more data and achieve better iterations. Based on the above analysis and considering the factors of historically low valuation, you can actively pay attention to Muyuan Shares (002714.SZ).\", 'authorid': UUID('71940778-e8ec-575a-8e06-60a8ffce80d7'), 'sentimentScore': 0.5885467426851392, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'RILQUS31DBS9HMV0H4PIK0Q2M3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:08 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'RILQUS31DBS9HMV0H4PIK0Q2M3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n" - ] - }, - { - "name": "stderr", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - "Token indices sequence length is longer than the specified maximum sequence length for this model (514 > 512). 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Real economy: The global commodity inventory cycle has begun to normalize, and the probability of a U.S. recession in the first half of the year is unlikely. Monetary policy: Cut interest rates in the second half of the second quarter at the earliest (look at 50bp first). US stocks: There are no obvious risk points in the short term; trend bubbles will appear again in the long term, and will turn from neutral and cautious to neutral at the end of 2023. U.S. bonds: lower limit 3.65~3.85%. Risk warning: Global inflation exceeds expectations, leading to a global recession.', 'authorid': UUID('3f2797dd-6eba-5070-8041-b1ca733a1529'), 'sentimentScore': -0.26351360976696014, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GLSDPO035EFG8EPPT0H0GRTJQ7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:13 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GLSDPO035EFG8EPPT0H0GRTJQ7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1be88e2c-4580-5b1e-9a79-b67eeda84102'), 'title': '2024 US Election Express (4): The battle for the White House has begun early. Will Trump and Biden withdraw midway?', 'author': 'Wei Wei, Zhou Chang', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSeJiuAAlvXahQ2mD74UUmJE=', 'researcher': '魏伟,周畅', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000191821', '11000443154'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSeJiuAAlvXahQ2mD74UUmJE=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626753658_1.pdf?1710442609000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626753658_1.pdf?1710442609000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '2024 US Election Express (4): The battle for the White House has begun early. Will Trump and Biden withdraw midway?', 'originalAuthor': '魏伟,周畅', 'originalContent': '特朗普与拜登各自提前锁定党内提名资格，但初选过程也凸显出双方的竞选隐忧。截止当地时间3月12日，特朗普获得1228票，超过共和党总票数的一半1215票，拜登获得2101票，超过民主党总票数的一半1968票，二者各自提前锁定党内提名资格，并将在今年7-8月两党全国代表大会上正式成为总统提名人。此次初选是近代美国大选中最无悬念的初选之一，但在初选过程中也凸显出双方的竞选隐忧：一则，民主党初选中，继密歇根州发起“倾听密歇根”运动带动约13%的密歇根居民投“不表态”选项，后续多州居民选择支持“不表态”选项以表达对拜登在巴以冲突中亲以立场的不满，其中明尼苏达州“不表态”选项支持率接近19%，在该州拜登赢得了75票中的64票，而“未承诺”的投票选项赢得了11票，最终民主党内“未承诺”选项共获得20票，指向后续巴以冲突、俄乌冲突是否得以妥善处理将对拜登的竞选过程产生较大影响。此外，在美属萨摩亚州初选中，拜登以40票对51票的结果败给了另一位年轻候选人贾森·帕尔默，标志着拜登在本届大选党内初选中迄今为止首次失利，一定程度上体现出部分民众对拜登的不满。二则，共和党内，在“超级星期二”中约30%的共和党选民通过投票给其他候选人的方式表达对特朗普的不满，此部分选民或有可能在11月大选日中影响特朗普得票率。', 'content': 'Trump and Biden each secured their party nomination qualifications in advance, but the primary process also highlighted the campaign concerns of both parties. As of March 12, local time, Trump had received 1,228 votes, more than half of the Republican Party\\'s total votes (1,215 votes), and Biden had received 2,101 votes, more than half of the Democratic Party\\'s total votes (1,968 votes). The two had each locked in their party nomination qualifications in advance, and He will officially become the presidential nominee at the bipartisan national conventions in July-August this year. This primary election is one of the most unsuspicious in modern American elections, but the primary process also highlights the campaign concerns of both parties: First, in the Democratic primary, following the launch of the \"Listen to Michigan\" campaign in Michigan, About 13% of Michigan residents voted for the “no stance” option. Subsequently, residents in many states chose to support the “no stance” option to express their dissatisfaction with Biden’s pro-Israel stance on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Among them, Minnesota’s support rate for the “no stance” option Nearly 19%, Biden won 64 of the 75 votes in the state, and the \"uncommitted\" voting option won 11 votes. In the end, the \"uncommitted\" option in the Democratic Party received a total of 20 votes, pointing to the subsequent Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict can be properly handled will have a greater impact on Biden\\'s campaign. In addition, in the American Samoa primary, Biden lost to another young candidate, Jason Palmer, 40 votes to 51, marking Biden’s first victory in the party’s primary in this election. This is the first defeat so far in the election, which to some extent reflects the dissatisfaction of some people with Biden. Second, within the Republican Party, about 30% of Republican voters expressed their dissatisfaction with Trump by voting for other candidates on Super Tuesday. This group of voters may influence Trump on the November election day. Vote percentage.', 'authorid': UUID('34e7baf4-e205-5137-b5ef-d1ca6bacf118'), 'sentimentScore': 0.0561908483505249, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'JI0J481NRBH2K0R7PPAUKLQ937VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:15 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'JI0J481NRBH2K0R7PPAUKLQ937VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('cf8d09d4-493f-56be-8ad0-24104d9e7cc1'), 'title': 'Commentary on U.S. February CPI data: U.S. inflation is still sticky and the window for interest rate cuts is narrow', 'author': 'Kangmingyi', 'orgName': '东兴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80114781', 'orgSName': '东兴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSaErKvYQKkbspLkB4hXOJj8=', 'researcher': '康明怡', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000270257'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSaErKvYQKkbspLkB4hXOJj8=', 'site': 'Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东兴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626727747_1.pdf?1710434870000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626727747_1.pdf?1710434870000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on U.S. February CPI data: U.S. inflation is still sticky and the window for interest rate cuts is narrow', 'originalAuthor': '康明怡', 'originalContent': '事件：美国2月CPI环比0.4%，预期0.4%，前值0.3%；同比3.2%，预期3.1%，前值3.1%。核心CPI环比0.4%，预期0.3%，前值0.4%；同比3.8%，预期37%，前值3.9%。主要观点：1、住宅价格环比下降，但没有趋势性下降的证据；非住宅服务价格环比并未减速，粘性仍需时间。2、降息节点：首次降息不会早于5月的观点得到印证，参考时间节点可为核心CPI环比跌落0.3%平台。3、降息幅度：首先考虑降息50bp，更多降息需后续数据支持。4、降息窗口：窗口较窄，三四季度为传统消费旺季，降息过晚可能会遇到经济尚可但通胀回落放缓的不利降息的局面。5、维持美国十年期国债利率下限3.65~3.85%，上限4.35~4.6%；美股维持短期没有明显风险点，长期中性。数据方面，房屋和汽油价格贡献了CPI环比的60%。能源价格环比0.4%，各类分项均有所上涨；食品稳定。核心通胀分项方面，2月非住宅环比增长显著的有机票3.6%（前值1.4%），车险0.9%，其他上涨的有服饰、休闲娱乐、二手车；下降的有医疗0（前值0.5%）、个人护理-0.5%（前值0.6%）、家装-0.1%、新车-0.1%。2月核心通胀同比3.8%，房屋5.7%，贡献了核心通胀的三分之二，其他显著增加的有车险20.6%，医疗1.4%，休闲娱乐2.1%，个人护理4.2%。住宅价格环比增速未见趋势性下降，非住宅服务类价格环比也仍未减速。商品价格结束9个月的下跌趋势，2月环比增速回升至0.1%（图7）。住宅环比虽低于上月（0.4%，前值0.6%），但从去年3月开始一直在0.4~0.6%这一平台震荡，尚未有进一步回落的趋势（图7）。非住宅服务类价格维持在2022年10月以来的最高位0.6%，与服务业就业仍旧紧绷相吻合（图7）。叠加商品环比止跌，带动非住宅核心通胀环比略突破2023年5月以来的平台（0.3%vs0.2%）（图7）。过早过度降息会进一步增加服务价格的粘性。降息背景下，通胀回落趋势不变，但可能更为缓慢。由于原油价格稳定（图13），短期内通胀不会有实质性压力。住宅价格端，房贷利率随着美十债利率略下跌，房价反弹（图8）；供给端，住宅市场存量房屋数太少，住宅市场处于紧平衡状态；收入端，失业率较低，三重因素均支撑房价的再次反弹。随着加息周期结束，下半年进入降息通道，房价仍有支撑，预计核心通胀回落较通胀更为缓慢。我们关于降息节奏的观点逐步得到印证：即最早不会早于5月。维持若要避免后期过早衰退，停留在5.25%上方的时间不宜过长的观点。关于降息节点，1、2月非农和通胀均较强，一季度降息可能不大已被市场接受，目前市场预期首次降息为6月。无论劳动力市场还是房地产市场，虽有所缓和但仍处于紧绷状态，叠加拜登政府推出的基建法案，建筑业也进入相对繁荣期，过早降息可能会引起后期通胀反弹。降息时间节点可以参考核心CPI环比跌落当前0.3%这一平台的时间点，比如连续2个月不高于0.2%（图6）。关于降息幅度：首先考虑降息50bp，更多降息需后续数据支持。近期鲍威尔表示降息临近，认为目前的政策利率水平明显高于中性利率水平。我们在2020年疫情开始时就提出，随着地产周期复苏，中性利率可能有所抬升，即目前的政策利率水平虽处于限制性区域，但可能离中性利率并不太远。鉴于地产市场已摆脱08年次贷危机阴影，恢复了对利率的敏感度，当前地产市场处于紧平衡状态，而非疲软。这意味着也不能快速降息太多，目前市场对降息幅度预期过于乐观。当经济特别是地产开始恢复对利率的敏感度时，降息幅度应更为谨慎。此外，最佳的降息窗口在二季度末三季度初。由于美国是消费主导的经济体，三四季度为传统消费旺季，若一二季度不出现衰退，则大概率三四季度经济表现尚可。若三四季度消费尚可，则通胀存在反弹压力。降息拖到三季度后期至年尾，可能会遇到通胀下行趋势减弱而经济增速维持一定水平这种不利降息的局面。美国十年期国债利率下限维持3.65~3.85%，上限4.35~4.6%（图12）。目前美十债利率水平隐含的降息幅度为50bp左右（图12，以一年期国债与FFR利差衡量）。随着通胀中���以及GDP增长中枢上移，美十债很难回到2008~2022年间的长期低利率水平。股市方面，美国短期经济衰退风险不大，实体经济投资止跌，叠加AI技术突破，股市短期风险不大。但长期泡沫再次出现，类似1997-2000年科技泡沫时期。历次长期趋势的泡沫湮灭均与货币政策收紧有关，鉴于美联储开始进入降息通道，我们在2023年年底对长期趋势的看法从中性谨慎转为中性，中性是对泡沫的警惕，去掉谨慎是目前尚没有货币政策导致的流动性问题。风险提示：海外经济衰退。', 'content': 'Event: The U.S. CPI in February was 0.4% month-on-month, expected 0.4%, and the previous value was 0.3%; year-on-year, it was 3.2%, expected 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.1%. Core CPI was 0.4% month-on-month, expected to be 0.3%, and the previous value was 0.4%; year-on-year, it was 3.8%, expected to be 37%, and the previous value was 3.9%. Main points: 1. Residential prices declined month-on-month, but there is no evidence of a trend decline; non-residential service prices did not slow down month-on-month, and it will still take time to become sticky. 2. Interest rate cut node: The view that the first interest rate cut will not be earlier than May has been confirmed. The reference time node can be the core CPI falling 0.3% month-on-month platform. 3. Amount of interest rate cut: First consider cutting interest rates by 50bp, and more interest rate cuts will need to be supported by subsequent data. 4. The window for interest rate cuts: The window is narrow. The third and fourth quarters are the traditional peak seasons for consumption. If you cut interest rates too late, you may encounter an unfavorable situation of cutting interest rates when the economy is still good but inflation has slowed down. 5. Maintain the lower limit of the U.S. ten-year Treasury bond interest rate at 3.65~3.85% and the upper limit at 4.35~4.6%; U.S. stocks maintain no obvious short-term risk points and are neutral in the long term. In terms of data, housing and gasoline prices contributed 60% of the CPI month-on-month. Energy prices were 0.4% month-on-month, and all sub-categories increased; food prices were stable. In terms of core inflation sub-items, non-residential inflation increased significantly in February by 3.6% month-on-month (previous value: 1.4%), auto insurance increased by 0.9%, and others increased by clothing, leisure and entertainment, and second-hand cars; medical care decreased by 0.0% (previous value) 0.5%), personal care -0.5% (previous value: 0.6%), home improvement -0.1%, new cars -0.1%. Core inflation in February was 3.8% year-on-year, and housing was 5.7%, contributing two-thirds of core inflation. Other significant increases included auto insurance 20.6%, medical care 1.4%, leisure and entertainment 2.1%, and personal care 4.2%. The month-on-month growth rate of residential prices has not shown a downward trend, and the price of non-residential services has not slowed down month-on-month. Commodity prices ended a nine-month downward trend, and the month-on-month growth rate rebounded to 0.1% in February (Figure 7). Although the month-on-month housing price index was lower than the previous month (0.4%, the previous value was 0.6%), it has been fluctuating at the 0.4~0.6% platform since March last year, and has not yet shown a further downward trend (Figure 7). Non-residential service prices remained at 0.6%, the highest level since October 2022, consistent with employment in the service industry remaining tight (Figure 7). Superimposed commodities stopped falling month-on-month, driving non-residential core inflation to slightly exceed the platform since May 2023 (0.3% vs. 0.2%) month-on-month (Figure 7). Cutting interest rates too early and excessively will further increase the stickiness of service prices. In the context of interest rate cuts, the downward trend in inflation remains unchanged, but may be slower. As crude oil prices are stable (Figure 13), there will be no substantial pressure on inflation in the short term. On the residential price side, mortgage interest rates have fallen slightly along with U.S. bond rates, and house prices have rebounded (Figure 8); on the supply side, there are too few houses in the housing market, and the housing market is in a tight balance; on the income side, the unemployment rate is low, and three factors All support another rebound in housing prices. With the end of the interest rate hike cycle and the entry into the interest rate cut channel in the second half of the year, housing prices will still be supported, and core inflation is expected to fall more slowly than inflation. Our view on the pace of interest rate cuts has been gradually confirmed: that is, it will not be earlier than May at the earliest. We maintain the view that if we want to avoid a premature recession in the later period, it should not stay above 5.25% for too long. Regarding the interest rate cut node, non-farm payrolls and inflation were both strong in January and February. The possibility of an interest rate cut in the first quarter has been accepted by the market. The market currently expects the first interest rate cut to be in June. Both the labor market and the real estate market have eased but are still in a tight state. Coupled with the infrastructure bill introduced by the Biden administration, the construction industry has also entered a period of relative prosperity. Premature interest rate cuts may cause a later rebound in inflation. The time point for interest rate cuts can refer to the time point when the core CPI drops to the current platform of 0.3% month-on-month, such as not being higher than 0.2% for 2 consecutive months (Figure 6). Regarding the extent of interest rate cuts: First consider cutting interest rates by 50bp, and more interest rate cuts will need to be supported by subsequent data. Powell recently stated that a rate cut is imminent and believes that the current policy interest rate level is significantly higher than the neutral interest rate level. We proposed at the beginning of the epidemic in 2020 that as the real estate cycle recovers, the neutral interest rate may rise. That is, although the current policy interest rate level is in a restrictive area, it may not be too far from the neutral interest rate. Given that the real estate market has shaken off the shadow of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and has regained its sensitivity to interest rates, the current real estate market is in a state of tight balance rather than weakness. This means that interest rates cannot be cut too much quickly. The market is currently too optimistic about the extent of interest rate cuts. When the economy, especially real estate, begins to regain its sensitivity to interest rates, interest rate cuts should be more cautious. In addition, the best window for interest rate cuts is at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter. Since the United States is a consumption-led economy, the third and fourth quarters are the traditional peak consumption seasons. If there is no recession in the first and second quarters, there is a high probability that the economic performance in the third and fourth quarters will be acceptable. If consumption in the third and fourth quarters is acceptable, there will be pressure for inflation to rebound. If the interest rate cut is delayed until the late third quarter to the end of the year, the downward trend in inflation may weaken while economic growth maintains a certain level, which is an unfavorable situation for interest rate cuts. The lower limit of the U.S. ten-year Treasury bond interest rate remains at 3.65~3.85%, and the upper limit is 4.35~4.6% (Figure 12). The current U.S. ten bond interest rates imply an interest rate cut of about 50bp (Figure 12, measured by the spread between one-year Treasury bonds and FFR). As the center of inflation and GDP growth moves upward, it will be difficult for U.S. Treasury bonds to return to the long-term low interest rate levels between 2008 and 2022. In terms of the stock market, the short-term risk of economic recession in the United States is not great. Investment in the real economy has stopped falling. Combined with breakthroughs in AI technology, the short-term risk of the stock market is not great. But the long-term bubble has reappeared, similar to the tech bubble period of 1997-2000. The annihilation of bubbles in previous long-term trends is all related to the tightening of monetary policy. In view of the fact that the Federal Reserve has begun to enter the interest rate cut channel, our view of the long-term trend will change from neutral and cautious to neutral at the end of 2023. Neutral means being alert to bubbles, and removing caution is There are currently no liquidity problems caused by monetary policy. Risk warning: Overseas economic recession.', 'authorid': UUID('3f2797dd-6eba-5070-8041-b1ca733a1529'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9074981044977903, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'D0UTBGU30LB8EPEC1BLO37QF8JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:18 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'D0UTBGU30LB8EPEC1BLO37QF8JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9421fa78-5324-5174-9aec-16a645cc89dd'), 'title': 'Comments on price data in February 2024: CPI returns to positive, PPI is weak', 'author': 'Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli', 'orgName': '上海证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000155', 'orgSName': '上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSehgTGHzoFRmhIN0yMfpXuk=', 'researcher': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172617', '11000235839'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSehgTGHzoFRmhIN0yMfpXuk=', 'site': 'Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '上海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626723750_1.pdf?1710424565000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626723750_1.pdf?1710424565000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on price data in February 2024: CPI returns to positive, PPI is weak', 'originalAuthor': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'originalContent': '主要观点CPI回正，PPI稳中偏弱2月CPI受春节效应影响，食品以及出行娱乐等服务价格上涨突出，带动CPI由负转正，大幅反弹。并且由于服务类价格的上涨，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅比上月扩大0.8个百分点，创2022年2月以来最高涨幅。工业品价格走势则延续惯性，在基数效应下同比降幅略有扩大，稳中偏弱。主要行业中，化学制品、黑色金属冶炼、石油、电气机械等行业降幅扩大，煤炭、非金属制品以及通信电子设备价格均有不同程度下降。市场有望走稳回暖我们认为宏观环境变化为我国资本市场运行步入平稳回暖的新阶段奠定了基础。我们认为，在政策激励和经济韧性影响下，中国经济运行平稳态势不变，随着政策效应逐渐呈现，2024年中国经济和资本市场运行或将演绎双回暖格局。我们认为，未来“宏观平稳、微观改善”的宏观运行趋势，有利于资本市场走稳回暖。宽松政策仍有空间受春节假期刺激，CPI重新回正，但PPI运行仍然偏弱。春节因素消退后，CPI或将再度走弱。价格走势仍将延续我们一直秉持的观点：标杆商品猪肉延续稳中偏弱，大宗商品价格因经济偏软也呈现偏弱走势。我们认为，当前价格低迷并非周期性的，主要反映经济结构面临转型下，传统商品结构价格的疲软态势。基于经济趋势和产业周期状况，我们认为消费品走势平稳依旧，工业品延续稳中偏弱，基数效应下24年都将缓慢回升。我们认为经济平稳中的通胀下行走势，或带来货币增速的后撤；价格运行稳中偏低的态势，也为宽松货币政策创造了空间，预计1-2Q内调降回购利率5BP的降息举措或有发生、2-3Q内降准25BP也是大概率事件。随着中国经济运行的国内外环境改变，推动融资成本下行的降准、降息等政策工具仍将延续。风险提示俄乌冲突、中东冲突等地缘政治事件恶化，国际金融形势改变；中国通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。', 'content': 'Main point: CPI returned to positive, while PPI was stable but weak. CPI in February was affected by the Spring Festival effect. Prices of food, travel and entertainment and other services increased significantly, driving CPI from negative to positive and rebounding sharply. And due to the increase in service prices, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, the highest increase since February 2022. The price trend of industrial products continued its inertia, and the year-on-year decline slightly expanded due to the base effect, which was stable but weak. Among the major industries, the decline in chemical products, ferrous metal smelting, petroleum, electrical machinery and other industries expanded, and the prices of coal, non-metallic products and communication electronic equipment all fell to varying degrees. The market is expected to stabilize and pick up. We believe that changes in the macro environment have laid the foundation for my country\\'s capital market to enter a new stage of steady recovery. We believe that under the influence of policy incentives and economic resilience, China\\'s economic performance remains stable. As the policy effects gradually emerge, China\\'s economy and capital market operations may perform a double recovery pattern in 2024. We believe that the future macro operation trend of \"macro stability and micro improvement\" will be conducive to the stabilization and recovery of the capital market. There is still room for easing policies. Stimulated by the Spring Festival holiday, the CPI has returned to positive levels, but the PPI operation is still weak. After the Spring Festival factors subside, CPI may weaken again. The price trend will continue to be the view we have always held: the benchmark commodity pork continues to be stable but weak, and commodity prices are also showing a weak trend due to the soft economy. We believe that the current price downturn is not cyclical, but mainly reflects the weakening price trend of traditional commodity structure as the economic structure faces transformation. Based on economic trends and industrial cycles, we believe that the trend of consumer goods remains stable, while industrial products continue to be stable and weak, and will slowly rebound in 24 years under the base effect. We believe that the downward trend of inflation in a stable economy may bring about a retreat in monetary growth; the stable and low price trend also creates space for loose monetary policy. It is expected that the repurchase rate will be lowered by 5BP in 1-2Q. Interest rate cuts may occur, and a 25BP reserve requirement ratio cut within 2-3Q is also a high probability event. As the domestic and international environment for China\\'s economic operation changes, policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts that promote downward financing costs will continue. Risks suggest that geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East conflict have worsened, and the international financial situation has changed; China\\'s inflation has risen beyond expectations, and China\\'s monetary policy has changed beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('23836b0d-75e0-5a50-a109-862fde53e3bf'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8925097733736038, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KBUH8F3LO3MOQ3H1E2925ORGR7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:20 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KBUH8F3LO3MOQ3H1E2925ORGR7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7987a7ee-e645-52e5-9450-83bcea4db4df'), 'title': 'Macro View: Falling Inflation Isn’t Smooth Sailing', 'author': 'Huang Fusheng, Li Qi, Gao Xiaojie', 'orgName': '中邮证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80036717', 'orgSName': '中邮证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankScrO2GKcqQqrGQf12MncLuY=', 'researcher': '黄付生,李起,高晓洁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172600', '11000440637', '11000460131'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankScrO2GKcqQqrGQf12MncLuY=', 'site': 'China Post Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中邮证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626722984_1.pdf?1710419327000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626722984_1.pdf?1710419327000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro View: Falling Inflation Isn’t Smooth Sailing', 'originalAuthor': '黄付生,李起,高晓洁', 'originalContent': '核心观点2月美国CPI略超预期的主要因素在于能源价格降幅的收窄，其他主要分项，尤其是核心CPI同比较上月走低。但我们认为，美国通胀未来仍然存在隐忧。首先是就业市场并未出现明显的松动，时薪增速和工作时长增速一降一升尚无明确方向。其次房价和房租的反弹后续或延迟传递至持续走低的住房租金分项。最后，当前生产资料价格指数环比出现小幅回升，叠加2023年2季度PPI基数较低，我国“再通胀”有望实现，那么美国未来商品价格的下降将面临更大的阻力。短期数据的好坏不易线性外推，定价通胀顺势下行或为时过早。风险提示：美国就业市场超预期走弱；我国经济基本面再次走弱；国家大宗商品价格超预期下降；美国房价超预期回落；我国稳增长政策力度和效果不及预期。', 'content': 'Core view: The main factor behind the slightly higher-than-expected U.S. CPI in February was the narrowing of the decline in energy prices. Other major components, especially core CPI, fell compared with last month. However, we believe that there are still hidden concerns about U.S. inflation in the future. The first is that the job market has not seen significant relaxation, and there is no clear direction for the growth rate of hourly wages and working hours to rise and fall. Secondly, the rebound in house prices and rents may be later transmitted to the housing rent component that continues to fall. Finally, the current price index for means of production has rebounded slightly from the previous quarter. Coupled with the low PPI base in the second quarter of 2023, my country\\'s \"reflation\" is expected to be realized, so the future decline in commodity prices in the United States will face greater resistance. The quality of short-term data cannot be easily extrapolated linearly, and it may be premature to price inflation downwards. Risk warning: The U.S. job market weakened more than expected; my country\\'s economic fundamentals weakened again; national commodity prices fell more than expected; U.S. housing prices fell more than expected; the strength and effectiveness of my country\\'s stabilizing growth policies were less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('e2348d66-fa4f-5ba2-ba82-ccc397343672'), 'sentimentScore': -0.92231011018157, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KKHQEGA33T33D7NQPJL32KUHLFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:23 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KKHQEGA33T33D7NQPJL32KUHLFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c9b749d0-64a1-5b9c-ad44-83ea1dc66886'), 'title': 'Central Bank Operation Daily', 'author': 'Li Mingyu', 'orgName': '新湖期货股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80030099', 'orgSName': '新湖期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSRCxH18PQ3zKXhX1SzxbE/w=', 'researcher': '李明玉', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197321'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSRCxH18PQ3zKXhX1SzxbE/w=', 'site': 'Xinhu Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '新湖期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626713591_1.pdf?1710409808000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626713591_1.pdf?1710409808000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Central Bank Operation Daily', 'originalAuthor': '李明玉', 'originalContent': '公开市场操作：3月14日中国央行今日进行30亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.80%，与此前持平。因今日有100亿元7天期逆回购到期，当日实现净回笼70亿元。MLF操作：今日央行无MLF投放与操作，中标利率为2.50%，与此前一致PSL操作：今日央行无PSL投放与操作。TMLF：今日无TMLF到期与操作。国库定存操作：今日无国库定存到期及操作。', 'content': \"Open market operations: On March 14, the People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 3 billion yuan today, with the winning interest rate being 1.80%, the same as before. Because 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos expired today, a net withdrawal of 7 billion yuan was achieved that day. MLF operation: There is no MLF placement or operation by the central bank today, and the winning interest rate is 2.50%, which is consistent with the previous PSL operation: There is no PSL placement or operation by the central bank today. TMLF: There are no TMLF expirations and operations today. Treasury fixed deposit operations: There are no treasury fixed deposit expirations and operations today.\", 'authorid': UUID('06615761-5e26-57d2-b056-2b9f0d8913bd'), 'sentimentScore': 0.02577984146773815, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'EMTISPFEO8IJV4RENS0DAHC9EVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:25 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'EMTISPFEO8IJV4RENS0DAHC9EVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b147319d-3004-52fb-9650-c33c27f006bf'), 'title': 'U.S. inflation remained resilient in February and may have a neutral impact on the decision to cut interest rates', 'author': 'Jin Xiaowen', 'orgName': '浦银国际证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '81070432', 'orgSName': '浦银国际证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSSnpzNeorwYDhOZqzyHvjdo=', 'researcher': '金晓雯', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000442747'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSSnpzNeorwYDhOZqzyHvjdo=', 'site': 'Shanghai Pudong International Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '浦银国际证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626704982_1.pdf?1710409310000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626704982_1.pdf?1710409310000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. inflation remained resilient in February and may have a neutral impact on the decision to cut interest rates', 'originalAuthor': '金晓雯', 'originalContent': '美国核心环比通胀率2月大致持平，但强于预期。环比来看，核心通胀回落0.03个百分点到0.36%，略高于市场预期的0.3%。整体CPI环比增速继续上升0.14个百分点到0.44%，能源价格的大幅反弹是主要原因，而食品价格基本持平。按同比看，美国整体CPI小幅上升0.1个百分点到3.2%，核心CPI小幅下滑0.1个百分点到3.8%（图表2）。从环比细分数据看，核心服务CPI（尤其是住房）仍是支撑核心CPI韧性的最重要因素（图表1）：核心商品价格反弹（2月：0.11%，1月：-0.32%）。服装和运输价格的反弹是主要推动力。尤其是二手车价格在1月环比下跌3.4%之后2月反弹0.5%。不过两者的反弹从历史数据来看均不一定能持续（图表3）。在商品价格方面，还需警惕红海事件的影响。住房价格环比增速2月下滑到0.43%（1月：0.63%）。由于业主等价租金中各类住房比重在今年1月调整，1月的业主等价租金环比CPI上涨到0.56%。2月该项终于回归到约0.4%的相对于1月前数据类似的稳定水平。正如我们所预测的，1月超强的外宿价格并不持续，2月外宿环比CPI下滑到0.15%（1月：1.78%）。租金CPI原先基本稳定滞后房价变化约1年，但是最近���个月两者的联系似乎有所减弱。不过不论如何，我们预计住房相关价格今年仍会偏高，影响通胀下行速度。除住房外核心服务价格（超级核心服务CPI）增速明显减慢，但仍保持较高水平（2月：0.5%，1月：0.7%）。或许受油价反弹影响，机票价格2月再升3.57%（1月环比：1.40%），拉高整体运输服务价格。在劳动力成本虽有下降但仍偏高的背景下，娱乐和教育价格环比增速仍较高。不过医疗护理价格明显下降。与此同时，2月非农报告印证我们劳动力市场温和收紧的趋势的判断。此前，1月远超预期的非农新增就业引起市场担忧，不过我们当时就判断1月年度季节调整可能是主要原因。将去年12月和今年1月两个月的数据加起来下修高达16.7万人。虽然2月新增就业27.5万超过了市场20万人左右的预期（图表4），但是其他劳动力市场指标均指向温和收紧：失业率在连续三个月维持在3.7%后在2月上升0.2个百分点到3.9%（图表6）。时薪环比增速下滑0.38个百分点到0.15%（图表5）。周度的持续领取失业金人数持续呈向上趋势（图表7）。我们维持核心通胀下行道路仍将缓慢且有波折的基本观点。坚挺的核心服务价格CPI仍是影响整体核心通胀下行的主要阻力。往前看，业主等价租金的权重调整可能引发该分项CPI更多变数，不过整体而言我们认为住房价格今年或仍偏高。劳动力市场虽然继续温和收紧，但是在未实现显著收紧之前，排除了住房价格之外的超级核心服务CPI下行或依然缓慢。核心通胀在今年年底或难回到2%的目标水平。然而本次通胀数据对美联储的降息决议或影响不大。有几个数据细节或导致美联储对再通胀放松警惕：1月突增的住房CPI（尤其是业主等价租金）回归正轨，超级核心服务CPI虽然依然偏高，但是也显著下滑。此外需要注意的是，2月住房价格对核心CPI环比增速的贡献高达54%，而在美联储更为重视的核心PCE价格指数中，住房的权重要低很多（参见：月度宏观洞察：美国经济软着陆或变成硬着陆？）。2月更为全面的通胀情况还有待3月底PCE价格数据的发布。总而言之，我们认为本次通胀数据并不会影响美联储目前既定的降息路径选择。在3月19-20日的议息会议中，我们预计美联储不会降息，并且会维持此前12月作出的政策利率预测不变（美联储预测全年降息75个基点）。届时美联储对于降息问题的表述以及季度经济展望发布或给降息路径提供更明确线索。风险提示：美联储未及时对经济走弱做出反应而引起经济衰退，提早降息导致通胀率居高不下和经济过热。', 'content': \"U.S. core month-on-month inflation was roughly flat in February but stronger than expected. On a month-on-month basis, core inflation fell by 0.03 percentage points to 0.36%, slightly higher than market expectations of 0.3%. The overall CPI growth rate continued to increase by 0.14 percentage points to 0.44%. The sharp rebound in energy prices was the main reason, while food prices were basically flat. On a year-on-year basis, the overall U.S. CPI increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 3.2%, and the core CPI decreased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% (Chart 2). Looking at the month-on-month breakdown, core service CPI (especially housing) is still the most important factor supporting the resilience of core CPI (Chart 1): core commodity prices rebounded (February: 0.11%, January: -0.32%). Rebounding apparel and shipping prices were the main drivers. In particular, second-hand car prices rebounded 0.5% in February after falling 3.4% month-on-month in January. However, judging from historical data, the rebound of both may not be sustainable (Chart 3). In terms of commodity prices, we also need to be alert to the impact of the Red Sea incident. The month-on-month growth rate of housing prices fell to 0.43% in February (January: 0.63%). As the proportion of various types of housing in the owner's equivalent rent was adjusted in January this year, the owner's equivalent rent in January rose to 0.56% month-on-month CPI. In February, the item finally returned to a stable level of about 0.4% relative to the data before January. As we predicted, the strong accommodation prices in January did not last, and the month-on-month CPI for accommodation fell to 0.15% in February (January: 1.78%). The rental CPI was originally basically stable and lagged changes in housing prices by about one year, but the relationship between the two seems to have weakened in recent months. However, we expect that housing-related prices will still be relatively high this year, which will affect the rate of inflation decline. The growth rate of core service prices (super core service CPI) except housing has slowed down significantly, but still maintains a high level (February: 0.5%, January: 0.7%). Perhaps affected by the rebound in oil prices, air ticket prices rose another 3.57% in February (month-on-month: 1.40%), driving up the overall transportation service price. Against the background that labor costs have declined but are still relatively high, the price growth of entertainment and education is still relatively high. However, the price of medical care has dropped significantly. At the same time, the February non-farm payrolls report confirmed our judgment of a moderate tightening trend in the labor market. Previously, the new non-agricultural employment in January, which far exceeded expectations, caused market concerns. However, we judged at that time that the annual seasonal adjustment in January might be the main reason. The combined data for December last year and January this year was revised down to 167,000. Although the 275,000 new jobs created in February exceeded market expectations of around 200,000 (Chart 4), other labor market indicators pointed to moderate tightening: the unemployment rate rose by 0.2% in February after remaining at 3.7% for three consecutive months. percentage points to 3.9% (Chart 6). The hourly wage growth rate fell by 0.38 percentage points to 0.15% (Chart 5). The weekly number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits continues to trend upward (Chart 7). We maintain our fundamental view that the downward path for core inflation will remain slow and bumpy. Strong core service price CPI remains the main resistance to the decline in overall core inflation. Looking forward, the weight adjustment of the owner's equivalent rent may trigger more variables in this sub-CPI, but overall we believe that housing prices may still be high this year. Although the labor market continues to tighten moderately, the CPI for super core services excluding housing prices may still decline slowly before significant tightening is achieved. Core inflation may be difficult to return to the 2% target level by the end of this year. However, this inflation data may have little impact on the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates. There are several data details that may cause the Fed to relax its vigilance against reflation: the sudden increase in housing CPI in January (especially owner-equivalent rent) is back on track, and the super-core service CPI, although still high, has also declined significantly. In addition, it should be noted that housing prices contributed as much as 54% to the core CPI month-on-month growth rate in February, while in the core PCE price index that the Federal Reserve pays more attention to, the weight of housing is much lower (see: Monthly Macro Insights: U.S. Economy Soft landing or hard landing?). A more comprehensive picture of inflation in February awaits the release of PCE price data at the end of March. All in all, we believe that this inflation data will not affect the Fed's current interest rate cut path choice. At the interest rate meeting on March 19-20, we do not expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and will maintain the policy rate forecast made in December unchanged (the Fed predicts a 75 basis point interest rate cut throughout the year). At that time, the Federal Reserve's statement on the issue of interest rate cuts and the release of its quarterly economic outlook may provide clearer clues to the path of interest rate cuts. Risk warning: The Fed fails to respond to a weakening economy in time and causes an economic recession. Cutting interest rates early leads to high inflation and overheating of the economy.\", 'authorid': UUID('777b0405-2b18-5046-a5d4-5ba161bb71cc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8269776552915573, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'VSK1B1Q6I27RFDVQEHEQ2S95ABVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:29 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'VSK1B1Q6I27RFDVQEHEQ2S95ABVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5338d196-70d3-5695-baf8-f00a88cdc314'), 'title': 'Commentary on February US CPI data: Stagnant “de-inflation”', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Chen Dafei, Zhao Yu', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSbuB0UOh7bto6cOvwwKGlQ8=', 'researcher': '赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000436531', '11000197421', '11000385631'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSbuB0UOh7bto6cOvwwKGlQ8=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626700097_1.pdf?1710405062000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626700097_1.pdf?1710405062000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on February US CPI data: Stagnant “de-inflation”', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇', 'originalContent': '事件：美国2月CPI（季调后）同比3.2%，预期3.1%，前值3.1%；CPI环比0.4%，预期0.4%，前值0.3%。核心CPI同比3.8%，预期3.7%，前值3.9%，为2021年5月以来新低；核心CPI环比0.36%，预期0.3%，前值0.39%，环比年化4.4%。整体CPI反弹主因是能源、二手车和卡车。核心CPI继续超预期主因核心服务保持粘性。美国2月CPI再超预期，核心服务保持粘性美国2月CPI（季调后）同比3.2%，预期3.1%，前值3.1%；CPI环比0.4%，预期0.4%，前值0.3%。核心CPI同比3.8%，预期3.7%，前值3.9%，为2021年5月以来新低；核心CPI环比0.36%，预期0.3%，前值0.39%，环比年化4.4%。整体CPI反弹主因是能源、二手车和卡车。核心CPI继续超预期主因核心服务保持粘性。2月商品分项CPI同比0.3%，前值0.1%，同比有所反弹主要源于能源商品和核心非耐用品价格的大幅上涨。食品价格同比、环比均继续下行；能源商品同比有所反弹，环比大幅转正；核心商品同比继续通缩，环比转正。核心商品中，二手车和卡车同比、环比均边际大幅回升，烟草同比继续保持高位，服装、医疗和烟草环比大幅回升。2月服务业CPI同比5.0%，前值5.0%。分项上，除能源、医疗服务外，其它分项继续处于去通胀过程中。能源服务同比反弹、环比有所回落；核心服务同比、环比均继续下行，但保持韧性。房租仍是通胀的最大贡献分项，拉动了服务业CPI3.2%，贡献率64%（前值67%）；扣除房租之后的服务业CPI3.9%，前值3.6%。“去通胀”存在拖尾效应，但持续进行长期通胀（同比）压力持续好转，但短期通胀（6M环比年化）继续反弹。从扩散指数来看，同比通胀超过3%、5%和10%的细分科目数量继续减少，但6M环比年化通胀的细分科目数量相比1月有所增加。核心CPI同比继续缓慢下降，“去通胀”一直在持续进行，但通胀趋稳且具粘性。核心CPI3个月和6个月环比年化继续走高。住房和超级核心服务通胀放缓有助于核心通胀下行。一方面，在租金边际变化下，住房（主要是租金和OER）通胀自2023年3月以来一直处于下行趋势中，今年大概率会继续放缓。另一方面，劳动力市场的再平衡和薪资增速放缓，往会对通胀产生抑制作用，后续随着薪资增速的进一步放缓，“工资-通胀”链条下、超级核心服务通胀有望继续下行。CPI数据发布后，美元指数、美债收益率短线飙升，黄金短线下挫。由于通胀再次超预期，加强了美联储在近期内推迟降息的理由。截至3月13日，CME FedWatch Tool显示，市场定价美联储3月会议基本按兵不动的概率升至99%，5月维持利率不变的概率升至84%，6月首次降息的概率为57%，全年降息3次。风险提示地缘政治冲突升级；美联储再次转“鹰”；金融条件加速收缩；', 'content': 'Event: The U.S. CPI (seasonally adjusted) in February was 3.2% year-on-year, 3.1% expected, and the previous value was 3.1%; CPI was 0.4% month-on-month, 0.4% expected, and the previous value was 0.3%. The core CPI is 3.8% year-on-year, expected to be 3.7%, and the previous value is 3.9%, a new low since May 2021; the core CPI is 0.36% month-on-month, expected to be 0.3%, the previous value is 0.39%, and the month-on-month annualized rate is 4.4%. The main reasons for the overall CPI rebound were energy, used cars and trucks. Core CPI continues to exceed expectations mainly because core services remain sticky. The U.S. CPI in February exceeded expectations again, and core services remained sticky. The U.S. CPI in February (after seasonally adjusted) was 3.2% year-on-year, compared with the expected 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.1%; the CPI was 0.4% month-on-month, compared with the expected 0.4%, and the previous value was 0.3%. The core CPI is 3.8% year-on-year, expected to be 3.7%, and the previous value is 3.9%, a new low since May 2021; the core CPI is 0.36% month-on-month, expected to be 0.3%, the previous value is 0.39%, and the month-on-month annualized rate is 4.4%. The main reasons for the overall CPI rebound were energy, used cars and trucks. Core CPI continues to exceed expectations mainly because core services remain sticky. The commodity sub-CPI in February was 0.3% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 0.1%. The year-on-year rebound was mainly due to the sharp increase in the prices of energy commodities and core non-durable goods. Food prices continued to decline year-on-year and month-on-month; energy commodities rebounded year-on-year and turned sharply positive month-on-month; core commodities continued to deflate year-on-year and turned positive month-on-month. Among core commodities, the average margin of second-hand cars and trucks rebounded significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, tobacco continued to remain high year-on-year, and clothing, medical care, and tobacco rebounded significantly month-on-month. The service industry CPI in February was 5.0% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 5.0%. In terms of sub-items, except for energy and medical services, other sub-items continue to be in the process of deflation. Energy services rebounded year-on-year and declined month-on-month; core services continued to decline year-on-year and month-on-month, but remained resilient. Rent is still the largest contributor to inflation, driving the service industry CPI by 3.2%, with a contribution rate of 64% (the previous value was 67%); after deducting rent, the service industry CPI was 3.9%, the previous value was 3.6%. \"De-inflation\" has a tailing effect, but long-term inflation (year-on-year) pressure continues to improve, but short-term inflation (6M month-on-month annualized) continues to rebound. Judging from the diffusion index, the number of subdivided subjects with year-on-year inflation exceeding 3%, 5% and 10% continues to decrease, but the number of subdivided subjects with 6M month-on-month annualized inflation has increased compared with January. Core CPI continues to decline slowly year-on-year, and \"de-inflation\" has been ongoing, but inflation is stable and sticky. The core CPI 3-month and 6-month annualized rates continued to rise. Slowing core inflation in housing and super services helped core inflation fall. On the one hand, under the marginal change in rent, housing (mainly rent and OER) inflation has been in a downward trend since March 2023, and there is a high probability that it will continue to slow down this year. On the other hand, the rebalancing of the labor market and the slowdown in wage growth will often have a suppressive effect on inflation. As wage growth slows down further, super core service inflation is expected to continue to decline under the \"wage-inflation\" chain. . After the CPI data was released, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields surged in the short term, while gold fell in the short term. Inflation has once again exceeded expectations, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to delay cutting interest rates in the near term. As of March 13, the CME FedWatch Tool showed that the market priced the probability that the Federal Reserve would basically hold steady at its March meeting to rise to 99%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in May rose to 84%, and the probability of cutting interest rates for the first time in June was 57%. Interest rates were cut three times a year. Risks indicate the escalation of geopolitical conflicts; the Fed turns \"hawk\" again; financial conditions accelerate contraction;', 'authorid': UUID('5561e32c-d3e7-5cc0-a5d5-33281e23a919'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9327776171267033, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'B2270I2V1RLE1P240OT58OS613VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:31 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'B2270I2V1RLE1P240OT58OS613VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f875107e-94be-5db6-8137-86d2b6b7d3a6'), 'title': 'February U.S. CPI Data Flash Report', 'author': 'Macro Finance Team', 'orgName': '国投安信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066669', 'orgSName': '国投安信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSTGpVLDdlnczXh0ehvEyJTY=', 'researcher': '宏观金融团队', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000442645'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSTGpVLDdlnczXh0ehvEyJTY=', 'site': 'SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投安信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626699176_1.pdf?1710403586000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626699176_1.pdf?1710403586000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'February U.S. CPI Data Flash Report', 'originalAuthor': '宏观金融团队', 'originalContent': '美国2月CPI同比增3.2%，高于预期的3.1%，前值为3.1%。美国2月CPI环比增0.4%，符合预期，但高出前值0.3%。核心CPI同比增3.8%%，高于预期的3.7%，较前值3.9%进一步回落，仍为2021年5月以来的最低水平。2月核心CPl环比增0.4%，为八个月最大升幅，高于预期的0.3%，与前值持平。2月核心商品价格增速为-0.3%（前值-0.3%），服务价格增长5.2%（前值5.4%）。从细分项目来看，汽油和住房（包括租金)对CPl月度涨幅的贡献超过60%，暗示通胀存在一定的粘性。二手车、服装、机动车保险和机票价格也有所上涨。总体来看，2月CPl同比增速高于市场预期，主要原因是能源项有所反弹，同时核心商品项增速短期止跌，而核心服务价格环比跟随非农薪资有所放缓。通胀数据公布后，市场仍预期美联储将在6月份降息。掉期市场显示，6月份降息的概率为63%，略高于CPI读数公布前一天的61.8%，对于下周即将召开的3月议息会议，2月的报告不会改变美联储下周维持利率不变的计划，市场更加关注美联储对于今年降息前景的看法以及经济预测如何发出信号。', 'content': \"The U.S. CPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year in February, higher than the expected 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.1%. The U.S. CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month in February, in line with expectations, but 0.3% higher than the previous value. Core CPI increased by 3.8% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.7%, further down from the previous value of 3.9%, still the lowest level since May 2021. Core CPl increased by 0.4% month-on-month in February, the largest increase in eight months, higher than the expected 0.3% and unchanged from the previous value. In February, core commodity price growth was -0.3% (previous value -0.3%), and service prices increased by 5.2% (previous value: 5.4%). Judging from the breakdown of items, gasoline and housing (including rent) contributed more than 60% to the monthly increase in CPl, suggesting that inflation has a certain stickiness. Prices for used cars, clothing, motor vehicle insurance and air tickets also increased. Overall, the year-on-year growth rate of CPl in February was higher than market expectations, mainly due to a rebound in energy items, while the growth rate of core commodity items stopped falling in the short term, while core service prices slowed down month-on-month following non-agricultural wages. After the inflation data was released, the market still expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June. The swap market shows that the probability of an interest rate cut in June is 63%, slightly higher than the 61.8% the day before the CPI reading was released. For the March interest rate meeting to be held next week, the February report will not change the Fed’s maintenance of interest rates next week. With no change in plans, the market is paying closer attention to the Fed's views on the prospects for cutting interest rates this year and how economic forecasts will signal it.\", 'authorid': UUID('d4813736-c001-5f5c-bd84-39fcb960b66d'), 'sentimentScore': 0.19882133603096008, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3RMIFBBGRS2H85D52GPOQG67HVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:34 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3RMIFBBGRS2H85D52GPOQG67HVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('dca393dc-6b71-5deb-980e-b62995247500'), 'title': 'Macro research: Observing the marginal decline of PCE from changes in the US CPI structure', 'author': 'Yuanno', 'orgName': '中邮证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80036717', 'orgSName': '中邮证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEIiqES0GliG0nMihyVBlYK8=', 'researcher': '袁野', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000266839'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEIiqES0GliG0nMihyVBlYK8=', 'site': 'China Post Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中邮证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626673489_1.pdf?1710401730000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626673489_1.pdf?1710401730000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro research: Observing the marginal decline of PCE from changes in the US CPI structure', 'originalAuthor': '袁野', 'originalContent': '核心观点能源、房租推升通胀超预期，核心通胀边际回落。继1月美国CPI超预期之后，2月CPI再次超预期回升，引发市场关注。但从结构来看，CPI增速超预期回升主要是能源和房租分项贡献拉动，核心商品（不包括食品和能源）和核心服务（不包括能源）对CPI同比增速和环比增速的贡献均呈现边际回落趋势。这与1月美国CPI增速超预期存在结构性差异，后者超预期回升主要是核心服务（不包括能源）贡献边际回升带动，更体现核心通胀粘性较强，而2月CPI结构特征显示核心通胀有边际回落的可能。此外，考虑在核心PCE计算中，住房分项比重有所下调，医疗服务分项权重有所提高，减弱房租分项贡献，增大了2月PCE边际回落可能。2月美联储更为关注的核心PCE价格指数有望呈现边际回落态势，但尚不能给出美联储降息与否的明显指示信号，短期更需要谨慎对待日本央行收紧货币政策，警惕各类资产价格的调整。美联储货币政策制定存在数据依赖，2月核心通胀有望边际回落，但趋势性特征有待进一步明确，尚不能给出明确指示信号。此外，日本已经上修了4季度GDP数据，本周将公布日本的“春斗”结果，如果薪资增长超预期，日本央行可能收紧货币政策，这是一个从零到一的过程，意味着全球阶段性融资成本较低的时段结束，应警惕各类资产价格的调整。风险提示：美国房地产市场超预期下行；美国消费疲软；海外地缘政治冲突加剧。', 'content': 'Core view: Energy and housing rents pushed up inflation beyond expectations, while core inflation fell marginally. After the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations in January, the CPI rebounded again beyond expectations in February, attracting market attention. However, from a structural point of view, the higher-than-expected rebound in CPI growth was mainly driven by the contribution of energy and rent sub-items. The contribution of core commodities (excluding food and energy) and core services (excluding energy) to the year-on-year and month-on-month growth of CPI All showed a marginal downward trend. This is structurally different from the higher-than-expected growth rate of U.S. CPI in January. The latter\\'s higher-than-expected recovery was mainly driven by the marginal rebound in the contribution of core services (excluding energy), which also reflects the strong stickiness of core inflation. The structural characteristics of February\\'s CPI show that core inflation is relatively sticky. Inflation is likely to fall marginally. In addition, considering that in the core PCE calculation, the proportion of the housing sub-item has been reduced, and the weight of the medical service sub-item has increased, weakening the contribution of the rent sub-item and increasing the possibility of a marginal decline in PCE in February. The core PCE price index, which the Fed is more concerned about in February, is expected to show a marginal decline, but it cannot yet give a clear indication of whether the Fed will cut interest rates. In the short term, we need to be cautious about the tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan and be wary of adjustments in various asset prices. . The Fed\\'s monetary policy formulation is dependent on data. Core inflation is expected to fall marginally in February, but the trend characteristics need to be further clarified and no clear indication signal can be given yet. In addition, Japan has revised its fourth-quarter GDP data upwards and will announce the results of Japan\\'s \"Spring Fight\" this week. If wage growth exceeds expectations, the Bank of Japan may tighten monetary policy. This is a process from zero to one, which means that the global The period of lower periodic financing costs is over, and we should be wary of adjustments in the prices of various assets. Risk warning: The U.S. real estate market has declined more than expected; U.S. consumption has weakened; overseas geopolitical conflicts have intensified.', 'authorid': UUID('41b3960d-9709-5ae8-b077-aad17d16ee4a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8609316796064377, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'U12QRTPFQC4PCAQHUB87V5R2KJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:37 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'U12QRTPFQC4PCAQHUB87V5R2KJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('234160f5-aad5-5b4e-8eeb-7e7e2e13ff4f'), 'title': 'Overseas market tracking: U.S. employment remains strong, interest rate cuts are timed cautiously', 'author': 'Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli', 'orgName': '上海证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000155', 'orgSName': '上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEHB7WegDKms4AWJ+Q/4H1ko=', 'researcher': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172617', '11000235839'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEHB7WegDKms4AWJ+Q/4H1ko=', 'site': 'Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '上海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626658779_1.pdf?1710363534000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626658779_1.pdf?1710363534000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas market tracking: U.S. employment remains strong, interest rate cuts are timed cautiously', 'originalAuthor': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'originalContent': '投资摘要海外市场跟踪——（3.4-3.8）海外股市除德国、法国外均有所下跌；海外国债收益率以下行为主；美元指数有所回落，美元兑主要货币均有所贬值，其中英镑、澳元升值较多；CRB指数有所回落，主要商品除原油、小麦外均有所上涨，黄金大涨美国就业仍偏强，降息时机谨慎美国2月主要就业数据公布。从非农数据来看，新增就业27.5万人，远超市场预期，但薪资增长却有所放缓，另外失业率意外回升至3.9%，创两年来新高。从ADP就业数据来看，新增14万人，休闲与酒店业就业新��最多，其次是建筑、贸易运输类。我们认为，美国的就业市场整体仍具有韧性，虽失业率反弹，但新增就业人数仍较可观。美联储主席鲍威尔在国会的发言表示，“政策利率可能在本轮紧缩周期中达到峰值。如果经济像预期的那样发展，那么在今年的某个时候开始减少政策限制可能是合适的”。但也再次重申了1月美联储会议的观点——在对通胀率可持续地向2%迈进的信心增强之前，降低目标区间是不合适的。我们认为，今年存在降息的可能性，但对时机的选择上美联储仍持相当谨慎的态度，也需要更多通胀缓解的证据支持。欧洲央行维持利率不变3月欧洲央行宣布维持利率水平不变，并发布了最新的预测，其中通胀预期下调，主要反映了能源价格的贡献下降；2024年经济增长预期下调，但此后将有所回升，主要受到消费以及投资的支持。欧洲央行仍然强调，关键利率处于维持足够长的时间的水平，将对通胀目标的实现做出重大贡献。我们认为欧洲央行同样在等待通胀回落的进一步确认，降息仍需等待。风险提示地缘政治事件恶化，国际金融形势改变；中国通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。', 'content': 'Investment Summary Overseas Market Tracking - (3.4-3.8) Overseas stock markets have declined except for Germany and France; overseas foreign bond yields are mainly below; the U.S. dollar index has fallen back, and the U.S. dollar has depreciated against major currencies, including British pound, The Australian dollar appreciated more; the CRB index fell back; major commodities except crude oil and wheat all rose; gold surged; U.S. employment was still strong; the timing of interest rate cuts was prudent after the release of major U.S. employment data in February. Judging from the non-agricultural data, 275,000 new jobs were created, far exceeding market expectations. However, wage growth has slowed down. In addition, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9%, a new high in two years. Judging from ADP employment data, there were 140,000 new jobs added, with the leisure and hotel industry adding the most jobs, followed by construction, trade and transportation. We believe that the U.S. job market as a whole is still resilient. Although the unemployment rate has rebounded, the number of new jobs is still considerable. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in a speech to Congress that \"policy rates may peak during this tightening cycle. If the economy develops as expected, it may be appropriate to begin reducing policy restrictions at some point this year.\" But it also reiterated the view from the January Fed meeting that it would be inappropriate to lower the target range until confidence in inflation\\'s sustainable move toward 2% increases. We believe that there is a possibility of interest rate cuts this year, but the Fed is still very cautious about timing and needs more evidence of easing inflation. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged. In March, the European Central Bank announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged and released its latest forecast, in which inflation expectations were lowered, mainly reflecting the decline in the contribution of energy prices; economic growth expectations in 2024 were lowered, but there will be an increase thereafter. The rebound was mainly supported by consumption and investment. The ECB still emphasizes that maintaining key interest rates at a level long enough will make a significant contribution to the achievement of the inflation target. We believe that the European Central Bank is also waiting for further confirmation of the fall in inflation, and interest rate cuts still need to wait. Risks suggest that geopolitical events have worsened and the international financial situation has changed; China\\'s inflation has risen beyond expectations, and China\\'s monetary policy has changed beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('23836b0d-75e0-5a50-a109-862fde53e3bf'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7780679389834404, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '4R9BPU5495Q7HEVEHA7NLKLSC3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:39 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '4R9BPU5495Q7HEVEHA7NLKLSC3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('244ffd6e-cb00-5cef-a6ab-bd066f1b2d03'), 'title': 'Macro: What do you think of the government work report of the two sessions?', 'author': 'Jiang Wenbin', 'orgName': '五矿期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80055516', 'orgSName': '五矿期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEOdmpE47F7hEXWoWc6Ks7Ok=', 'researcher': '蒋文斌', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000370211'], 'count': 1, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEOdmpE47F7hEXWoWc6Ks7Ok=', 'site': 'Minmetals Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '五矿期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626615332_1.pdf?1710351949000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626615332_1.pdf?1710351949000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro: What do you think of the government work report of the two sessions?', 'originalAuthor': '蒋文斌', 'originalContent': '报告要点：3月4日开启的两会即将结束，回顾会议主要议程，最受市场关注的应该是两会的“政府工作报告”内容，其既是政府对过去一年的工作总结，也是政府对未来一年的工作目标安排。总体来说，今年政府的工作要求仍然坚持“稳重求进”的总基调，但和前两年不同的则是今年的工作要求中加入了“以进促稳、先立后破”等内容，这和去年12月份的中央政治局会议要求一致。也表明政府在未来的工作中，政策的出台会相对谨慎，对政策可能带来的附加影响会有更多的考量。对于这一块，报告中也强调了政策的协调配合，把非经济性政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估，强化政策统筹，确保同向发力、形成合力。制定政策要认真听取和吸纳各方面意见，涉企政策要注重与市场沟通、回应企业关切。实施政策要强化协同联动、放大组合效应，防止顾此失彼、相互掣肘。综合来看，未来的政策会更为友好，也会更为立体的统筹各方面的影响。而从“两会”的2024年具体工作目标看，基本符合市场预期。相对来说“GDP增长目标5%”和“连续几年发行万亿特别国债”略超市场预期。财政和货币政策发力力度并不低。重点工作方面，高质量发展，新质生产力和建设现代化产业体系是未来的工作重点。', 'content': 'Highlights of the report: The two sessions, which started on March 4, are about to come to an end. Looking back at the main agenda of the meeting, the content of the “Government Work Report” of the two sessions that attracted the most attention should be the government’s summary of the past year’s work and the government’s outlook for the future. Work target arrangement for the year. Generally speaking, the government\\'s work requirements this year still adhere to the general tone of \"striving for stability and progress\", but what is different from the previous two years is that this year\\'s work requirements include \"promoting stability through advancement, establishing first and breaking things later\". This is consistent with the requirements of the Political Bureau meeting in December last year. It also shows that in future work, the government will be relatively cautious in issuing policies and will give more consideration to the additional impacts that policies may bring. Regarding this area, the report also emphasizes the coordination of policies, including non-economic policies in the consistency assessment of macro policy orientation, strengthening policy coordination, and ensuring that efforts are made in the same direction and a synergy is formed. When formulating policies, we must carefully listen to and absorb opinions from all sides, and enterprise-related policies must focus on communicating with the market and responding to enterprise concerns. The implementation of policies must strengthen synergy and linkage, amplify the combination effect, and avoid focusing on one at the expense of the other and preventing each other from constraining each other. Taken together, future policies will be more friendly and will coordinate the impacts of all aspects in a more three-dimensional manner. Judging from the specific work goals of the \"Two Sessions\" in 2024, they are basically in line with market expectations. Relatively speaking, the \"GDP growth target of 5%\" and \"issuing trillions of special government bonds for several consecutive years\" slightly exceeded market expectations. The intensity of fiscal and monetary policies is not low. In terms of key tasks, high-quality development, new-quality productivity and the construction of a modern industrial system are the focus of future work.', 'authorid': UUID('6707c931-5c46-5931-89ed-c45f28161ed6'), 'sentimentScore': -0.018036585301160812, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'E7HAKST15LCHFVGTI6LE2J1ME7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:41 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'E7HAKST15LCHFVGTI6LE2J1ME7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b3bf5df8-43b8-50de-9d16-6051cfe65b7e'), 'title': 'U.S. February CPI data: The fall in core CPI is still hampered by lagging components', 'author': 'Zhang Jun , Yu Jintong', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKECNL1G8692ny0ZfBmhmoeqU=', 'researcher': '章俊,于金潼', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000440456'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKECNL1G8692ny0ZfBmhmoeqU=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626615047_1.pdf?1710349104000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626615047_1.pdf?1710349104000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. February CPI data: The fall in core CPI is still hampered by lagging components', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,于金潼', 'originalContent': '核心要点：CPI和核心CPI增速再度高于预期，居住成本和能源价格贡献突出：美国劳工数据局（BLS）公布2月消费者价格指数（CPI），其同比增速从1月的3.1%升至3.2%，高于3.1%的市场预期；剔除能源和食品的核心CPI同比3.8%，比1月的3.9%稍有下降，同样高于3.7%的市场预期。季调环比方面，CPI增速升至0.4%，核心CPI增速维持0.4%。CPI数据已经连续3个月强于预期，这其中不仅有年度调整、季调因子变动和居住成本统计方式的影响，也反映服务部分的粘性在劳动缺口和实际薪资的支持下偏强。通胀数据反映的5个要点：（1）2月CPI增速超预期的核心原因一方面是能源商品环比增幅在连续4个月负增长后转正，另一方面居住成本的粘性仍强，增幅略高于预期；此外运输、休闲、教育和通信等服务的环比也不弱。通胀的下行动能尚在，但在三季度快速向2%靠拢存在一定难度。对于通胀的整体路径需要上修。（2）核心CPI方面，我们此前认为前三季度其将顺利向3%靠拢，但提示如果居住成本粘性高则需要警惕；目前来看，居住成本统计相关的问题可能会拖累核心CPI降低的进程，需要开始注意核心年末仍在3%以上的风险。（3）居住成本所体现的信息喜忧参半，好消息是业主等价租金（OER）1月份异常的0.6%环比增速没有继续维持，后续居住成本仍有望降低；令市场担忧的是，权重高达36.2%的居住成本项环比增速近期主要在0.4%-0.5%的范围内，并未如同领先租金和房价指数预示的一般逐渐向0.3%-0.4%靠近，这可能表明CPI对实际租金成本的统计与市场数据有偏差。虽然居住成本的实际涨价情况并不严峻，但CPI的统计滞后和对OER中价格更高的独户住宅权重上调意味着居住成本目前是通胀靠近2%的最大阻碍之一。（4）不含租金的未季调服务环比增速从0.9%回落至0.6%，显示服务价格压力较1月下行，但依然处于偏高水平。从同日公布的NFIB美国小企业调查来看，未来劳动市场有望边际弱化，失业率可能开始向4%靠近，这意味着对利率反应十分滞后的服务价格终将弱化。（5）从美联储的视角来看，CPI居住成本的异常与实际情况和PCE通胀情况有所偏离，可能无需过虑，但其四季度潜在的回升与服务价格粘性的结合限制了美联储年内降息的空间。以目前数据和实际利率的框架来看，年中进行首次降息仍有较高的概率，但对全年的降息幅度预期需要进一步降低。因此，将全年降息次数修正为3次75BP。在年中进行首次降息后，美联储可能在有充分数据观察时间的9月和12月进行第二和第三次降息；而如果四季度CPI快速回升至3%以上，核心CPI仍未降至3%附近，则美联储可能选择在12月不降息，全年仅降息2次。我们的基准假设认为核心CPI年内仍会降至3%左右，但如果CPI降幅不及预期，美联储可能压缩降息幅度。目前对3月的CPI同比增速预测为3.2%，核心3.7%左右市场对CPI超预期的交易并不剧烈：市场没有对超预期的CPI做出强烈反应，CME数据显示联邦基金利率期货交易者依然维持了6月首次降息、全年75-100BP的押注。10年期美债收益率上行5.9BP至4.160%，美元指数跳升后回落，收102.9321，美国三大股指集体收涨，伦金下跌至2158美元/盎司。在通胀粘性因诸多原因而偏强的情况下，目前的降息预期稍显乐观，可能有进一步降低的空间。同日NFIB小企业调查公布的领先于劳动市场的招聘指标等暗示就业可能弱化，也是市场没有猛烈交易CPI超预期的潜在因素。在拜登政府的美国财政赤字2024和2025年希望为6.6%和6.1%的情况下，长端美债受到的压力仍然明显，同时在美联储考虑的“买短卖长”的情况下，短端国债显得更为安全。风险提示：1.美国经济韧性超预期的风险2.地缘政治冲突加剧的风险3.美国出现突发流动性危机的风险', 'content': 'Core points: CPI and core CPI growth rates were once again higher than expected, with living costs and energy prices contributing prominently: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in February, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.1% from January. rose to 3.2%, higher than the market expectation of 3.1%; the core CPI excluding energy and food was 3.8% year-on-year, slightly lower than the 3.9% in January, and also higher than the market expectation of 3.7%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI growth rate rose to 0.4%, and the core CPI growth rate remained at 0.4%. CPI data has been stronger than expected for three consecutive months. This is not only affected by annual adjustments, changes in seasonal adjustment factors and statistical methods of housing costs, but also reflects the stickiness of the service sector, which is supported by the labor gap and actual wages. 5 key points reflected in the inflation data: (1) The core reason why the CPI growth rate in February exceeded expectations is that on the one hand, the month-on-month growth rate of energy commodities turned positive after four consecutive months of negative growth, and on the other hand, the stickiness of housing costs is still strong, with a slightly higher growth rate. Better than expected; in addition, the chain of services such as transportation, leisure, education and communications is also not weak. The downward momentum of inflation is still there, but it will be difficult to quickly move closer to 2% in the third quarter. The overall path of inflation needs to be revised upward. (2) In terms of core CPI, we previously believed that it would smoothly move closer to 3% in the first three quarters, but we reminded that if the stickiness of housing costs is high, you need to be vigilant; at present, issues related to housing cost statistics may drag down the process of reducing the core CPI. , we need to start paying attention to the risk that the core is still above 3% at the end of the year. (3) The information reflected in the cost of living is mixed. The good news is that the abnormal 0.6% month-on-month growth rate of owner equivalent rent (OER) in January has not been maintained, and the subsequent cost of living is still expected to decrease; what worries the market is that the weight is as high as 36.2 % of the month-on-month growth rate of housing cost items has recently been mainly in the range of 0.4%-0.5%, and has not gradually approached 0.3%-0.4% as predicted by the leading rent and house price indexes. This may indicate that CPI’s statistics on actual rental costs Deviation from market data. Although the actual increase in housing costs is not severe, the statistical lag in CPI and the increased weight of more expensive single-family homes in the OER mean that housing costs are currently one of the biggest obstacles to inflation approaching 2%. (4) The month-on-month growth rate of non-seasonally adjusted services excluding rent fell from 0.9% to 0.6%, indicating that service price pressure has declined from January, but is still at a relatively high level. Judging from the NFIB U.S. Small Business Survey released on the same day, the labor market is expected to weaken marginally in the future, and the unemployment rate may begin to approach 4%, which means that service prices that are very slow to respond to interest rates will eventually weaken. (5) From the perspective of the Federal Reserve, the abnormality in CPI living costs deviates from the actual situation and PCE inflation, and there may be no need to worry about it. However, the combination of its potential recovery in the fourth quarter and the stickiness of service prices limits the space for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates during the year. . Judging from the current data and real interest rate framework, there is still a high probability of a first interest rate cut in the middle of the year, but the expected rate cut for the whole year needs to be further reduced. Therefore, the number of interest rate cuts throughout the year is revised to three times at 75BP. After cutting interest rates for the first time in the middle of the year, the Federal Reserve may make second and third interest rate cuts in September and December when there is sufficient data observation time; and if the CPI quickly rebounds to above 3% in the fourth quarter, the core CPI has not yet dropped to 3%. %, the Fed may choose not to cut interest rates in December and only cut interest rates twice throughout the year. Our baseline assumption is that core CPI will still fall to around 3% this year, but if the CPI falls less than expected, the Fed may reduce the scope of interest rate cuts. The current forecast for March CPI year-on-year growth is 3.2%, with a core of around 3.7%. The market is not trading violently on CPI exceeding expectations: the market has not reacted strongly to CPI exceeding expectations, CME data shows that federal funds rate futures traders It still maintains its bet on the first interest rate cut in June and 75-100 BP for the whole year. The 10-year U.S. bond yield rose 5.9 BP to 4.160%. The U.S. dollar index fell back after jumping to close at 102.9321. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, with Lung gold falling to $2,158 per ounce. In the case where the stickiness of inflation is strong due to many reasons, the current interest rate cut expectations are slightly optimistic and there may be room for further reduction. On the same day, the NFIB small business survey released hiring indicators that were ahead of the labor market, suggesting that employment may weaken, which is also a potential factor why the market did not violently trade CPI to exceed expectations. With the Biden administration\\'s U.S. fiscal deficit expected to be 6.6% and 6.1% in 2024 and 2025, the pressure on the long-end U.S. debt is still obvious. At the same time, with the Fed considering \"buying short and selling long\", the short-end Treasury bonds appear safer. Risk warning: 1. The risk of U.S. economic resilience exceeding expectations 2. The risk of intensifying geopolitical conflicts 3. The risk of a sudden liquidity crisis in the U.S.', 'authorid': UUID('aade9e7c-af7e-5d53-a8f5-2d3af8826809'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6406961530447006, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'I5SRG1LUSTJCMU43GTBM93OK8FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:44 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'I5SRG1LUSTJCMU43GTBM93OK8FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('09c69ae7-f9c5-520e-a44d-2b88abb8f0f4'), 'title': 'Commentary on US February CPI data: service inflation remains high, interest rate cut expectations may be postponed again', 'author': 'Fan Lei, Wang Boqun', 'orgName': '国联证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000028', 'orgSName': '国联证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEPd8qiHnNBMjrYN5OCppp+o=', 'researcher': '樊磊,王博群', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000175009', '11000457032'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEPd8qiHnNBMjrYN5OCppp+o=', 'site': 'Guolian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626614159_1.pdf?1710347510000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626614159_1.pdf?1710347510000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on US February CPI data: service inflation remains high, interest rate cut expectations may be postponed again', 'originalAuthor': '樊磊,王博群', 'originalContent': '事件：美国2月CPI同比增长3.2%，略微高于预期，前值3.1%，环比增长0.4%。2月核心CPI同比3.8%，预期3.7%，前值3.9%，环比增长0.4%，上月0.3%，预期0.3%。通胀数据仍有韧性，尤其是服务通胀环比仍维持高位，或仍有一点惯性。数据公布后美联储3月降息概率已经降到1%，国债利率上行，但市场未进一步调低6月降息预期，三大股指先跌后涨。我们继续维持美联储降息在6月或以后的判断，目前6月降息的不确定性仍大。事件点评CPI数据略超预期，美联储降息或仍谨慎CPI略高于预期，较上月微增，同比从上个月的3.1%上升到3.2%（预期3.1%）。而核心CPI同比较上月微升，也略高于预期。数据表明通胀或仍有韧性，降息或还不宜操之过急。数据公布后美联储3月降息概率已经降到1%，关于降息时点的争论或集中在6月，国债利率上行，但市场未进一步调低6月降息预期，三大股指先跌后涨。核心服务通胀环比维持高位，同比仅微降核心CPI的韧性主要体现在服务上。服务的通胀环比0.5%，仍维持高位，虽然较上月下降0.2pct，同比增长5.2%，较上月微降。核心服务的主要一些分项，包括居所、运输服务环比增长仍较高，短期或仍有惯性。运输服务可能对利率不敏感。从核心CPI的权重来看，由于核心商品占比仅为核心服务大概一半，尽管商品通胀已经不是通胀的主要问题，但核心服务价格的韧性可能仍影响整体核心CPI，核心CPI可能仍然会表现出韧性。自有房等价租金微降，房价增速还在加快住宅的通胀目前仍然是每月服务通胀增长的最大贡献者，同比4.5%，上月4.6%。住宅通胀中，居所通胀仍处于高位，2月环比0.4%，较上月下降0.2pct，2月同比增长5.8%，上月6.1%。从目前的趋势看，未来短期住房相关通胀仍然是拖累通胀保持高位的分项。值得关注的是房价增速近期上行趋势仍在持续。美联储的研究发现房价增长与自有房等价租金(OER)通胀的相关性在16个月后达到0.75左右的峰值。这说明居所通胀仍有反复可能，货币政策不宜过早放松。风险提示：美联储鹰派超预期，地缘政治风���超预期。', 'content': \"Event: The U.S. CPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year in February, slightly higher than expected. The previous value was 3.1%, and the month-on-month increase was 0.4%. In February, the core CPI was 3.8% year-on-year, 3.7% expected, 3.9% previously, an increase of 0.4% month-on-month, and 0.3% last month, 0.3% expected. Inflation data are still resilient, especially services inflation which remains high month-on-month and may still have some inertia. After the data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March has dropped to 1%, and government bond interest rates have risen. However, the market has not further lowered expectations for an interest rate cut in June. The three major stock indexes fell first and then rose. We continue to maintain the judgment that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in June or later. There is still great uncertainty about interest rate cuts in June. Event Comments CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, and the Fed may still be cautious about interest rate cuts. CPI was slightly higher than expected, with a slight increase from the previous month, and a year-on-year increase from 3.1% last month to 3.2% (expected 3.1%). The core CPI rose slightly compared with last month, which was also slightly higher than expected. The data shows that inflation may still be resilient, and it may not be appropriate to cut interest rates too hastily. After the data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March has dropped to 1%. The debate on the timing of interest rate cuts may focus on June. Treasury interest rates are rising, but the market has not further lowered expectations for an interest rate cut in June. The three major stock indexes fell first and then rose. Core service inflation remained high month-on-month, with only a slight year-on-year decrease in core CPI. The resilience is mainly reflected in services. Inflation for services remained high at 0.5% month-on-month, although it fell by 0.2pct from the previous month and increased by 5.2% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous month. The main sub-categories of core services, including residence and transportation services, still have relatively high month-on-month growth, and there may still be inertia in the short term. Transportation services may not be rate sensitive. Judging from the weight of core CPI, since core goods account for only about half of core services, although commodity inflation is no longer the main issue of inflation, the resilience of core service prices may still affect the overall core CPI, and core CPI may still show toughness. Equivalent rents for owner-occupied houses have fallen slightly, and house price growth is still accelerating. Residential inflation is still the largest contributor to monthly service inflation growth, at 4.5% year-on-year and 4.6% last month. Among residential inflation, residential inflation remained at a high level, at 0.4% month-on-month in February, a decrease of 0.2pct from the previous month. It increased by 5.8% year-on-year in February and 6.1% last month. Judging from the current trend, short-term housing-related inflation will still be a drag on maintaining high inflation in the future. It is noteworthy that the recent upward trend in housing price growth continues. The Fed's research found that the correlation between house price growth and owner-equivalent rent (OER) inflation peaked at around 0.75 after 16 months. This shows that residential inflation is still likely to recur, and monetary policy should not be relaxed prematurely. Risk warning: The Federal Reserve is more hawkish than expected, and geopolitical risks are greater than expected.\", 'authorid': UUID('4786395a-b6a8-5613-93cb-532d55daeddb'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6518389135599136, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '5VBH5NPGD4G74TRAS3EIF133NBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:47 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '5VBH5NPGD4G74TRAS3EIF133NBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2e54e36e-47c3-5bef-b82b-571b6ae0e38e'), 'title': 'Comments on US CPI in February: Inflation resilience may continue', 'author': 'Zhou Yaqi , Zhu Qibing', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEJoy3SxYVHuzSOfnMzG6EKY=', 'researcher': '周亚齐,朱启兵', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000429332', '11000224223'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEJoy3SxYVHuzSOfnMzG6EKY=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626610521_1.pdf?1710342602000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626610521_1.pdf?1710342602000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on US CPI in February: Inflation resilience may continue', 'originalAuthor': '周亚齐,朱启兵', 'originalContent': '美国2月CPI同比和环比增速分别为3.2%和0.4%，略高于市场预期。能源通胀负贡献收敛，服务业通胀依旧强劲；我们预计未来数月CPI同比增速或将维持在3%左右，并存在上行风险。通胀数据并未打破“复苏交易”，美股盘中V型反弹。(未经季调)同比增速：2月美国CPI同比增速由1月的3.1%抬升至3.2%略高于市场预期的3.1%；2月核心CPI同比增速由1月的3.9%回落至3.8%，但略高于市场预期的3.7%。从CPI主要分项的2月同比增速看，食品为2.2%(vs.前值2.6%)，能源为-1.9%(vs.前值-4.6%)，核心商品为-0.3%(vs.前值-0.3%)，住宅为5.7%(vs.前值6.0%)，除住宅外的核心服务(Super Core)为4.3%(vs.前值4.3%)。(季调后)环比增速：2月美国CPI环比增速为0.4%(vs.前值0.3%)，同市场预期一致；2月美国核心CPI环比增速为0.4%(vs.前值0.4%)，高于市场预期的0.3%。从CPI主要分项的2月环比增速看，食品为0.0%(vs.前值0.4%)，能源为2.3%(vs.前值-0.9%)，核心商品为0.1%(vs.前值-0.3%)，住宅为0.4%(vs.前值0.6%)，除住宅外的核心服务为0.5%(vs.前值0.9%)能源通胀负贡献收敛，服务业通胀依旧强劲；我们预计未来数月CPI同比增速或将维持在3%左右，并存在上行风险。从能源通胀来看，在布伦特油价近期持续在80美元/桶上下波动的背景下，美国CPI能源同比增速负贡献进一步收敛。在布伦特油价维持在80美元/桶的假设下，未来数月能源通胀的同比增速或在0%附近徘徊。从食品通胀来看，全球初级产品的食品价格指数显示美国CPI食品同比增速未来数月或由近期的回落逐渐转变为走高，从而带来新的通胀压力。另一方面，综合考虑全球供应链压力指数和中国PPI未来数月的可能路径，我们预期剔除了能源和食品的CPI核心商品同比增速未来或将从目前0%附近的低位小幅反弹。从服务业通胀来看，考虑美国房价同比走势以及CPI住房通胀统计上的滞后性，我们预计未来数月CPI住房通胀同比增速或将持续缓慢降温，但可能在2024年下半年开始回升。另一方面，在劳动力市场持续边际降温（尤其是时薪同比增速放缓）的假设下，我们预计剔除了住房通胀的CPI服务业（Super Core）未来数月同比增速有望呈现缓慢回落的态势。整体而言，尽管未来数月包括能源和食品在内的商品类通胀同比走势可能出现一些波动，但是在权重显著更大的服务业通胀有望缓慢降温的背景下美国CPI同比增速仍有可能缓慢回落。但进入2024年下半年后，随着走高的房价对CPI的影响逐渐显现，通胀或存在更大的上行压力。地缘政治不确定性对供应链、大宗商品等的影响或也将为通胀带来上行风险。我们预计未来数月美国CPI同比增速将维持在3%左右，但存在上行风险与此同时，克利夫兰联储的CPI Nowcasting指标显示3月美国的CPI和核心CPI分别为约3.3%和3.7%，这也显示了美国目前通胀压力仍较大。略超预期的通胀数据并未打破“复苏交易”，美股盘中V型反弹。尽管略超预期的通胀数据公布之后对市场形成了短暂的冲击，但并未打破2024年开年以来的“复苏交易”。数据公布后的几分钟之内，美债长端收益率冲高，美股下挫，但这一波动很快被逆转，最终美债长端收益率和美股在当天再次携手走高。在3月11日《海外宏观和大类资产月报：初春之兴的报告中，我们提到“股指和美债收益率携手上行暗示市场交易主题线索或已经由通胀/美联储转变至经济基本面/企业盈利”。企业盈利回升的动能可能是美股面对较高通胀仍能表现优异的关键支撑。另一方面，通胀数据并未显著改变市场对于美联储的货币政策路径预期。市场对6月降息预期的概率基本不变，但小幅调降了2024年累计降息的幅度。风险提示：美国通胀走势偏离预期。', 'content': 'The year-on-year and month-on-month CPI growth rates in the United States in February were 3.2% and 0.4% respectively, slightly higher than market expectations. The negative contribution of energy inflation has converged, and service industry inflation remains strong; we expect that the year-on-year CPI growth rate may remain around 3% in the next few months, and there are upward risks. Inflation data did not break the \"recovery trade\", and US stocks rebounded in a V-shape during the session. (Not seasonally adjusted) Year-on-year growth: The year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI in February rose to 3.2% from 3.1% in January, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.1%; the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in February fell from 3.9% in January to 3.8%, but slightly higher than market expectations of 3.7%. Judging from the year-on-year growth rate of the main CPI components in February, food was 2.2% (vs. the previous value of 2.6%), energy was -1.9% (vs. the previous value -4.6%), and core commodities were -0.3% (vs. The previous value was -0.3%), residential was 5.7% (vs. the previous value was 6.0%), and core services (Super Core) other than residential were 4.3% (vs. the previous value was 4.3%). (After seasonally adjusted) month-on-month growth rate: The month-on-month growth rate of U.S. CPI in February was 0.4% (vs. the previous value of 0.3%), consistent with market expectations; the month-on-month growth rate of U.S. core CPI in February was 0.4% (vs. the previous value of 0.4 %), higher than market expectations of 0.3%. Judging from the February month-on-month growth rate of the main CPI components, food was 0.0% (vs. the previous value 0.4%), energy was 2.3% (vs. the previous value -0.9%), and core commodities was 0.1% (vs. the previous value) -0.3%), residential is 0.4% (vs. previous value 0.6%), core services other than residential is 0.5% (vs. previous value 0.9%), the negative contribution of energy inflation has converged, and service industry inflation remains strong; we expect that in the future The year-on-year CPI growth rate in several months is likely to remain around 3%, and there are upward risks. From the perspective of energy inflation, with Brent oil prices continuing to fluctuate around US$80/barrel recently, the negative contribution to the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI energy has further converged. Under the assumption that Brent oil prices remain at US$80 per barrel, the year-on-year growth rate of energy inflation in the coming months may hover around 0%. From the perspective of food inflation, the food price index of global primary products shows that the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI food may gradually shift from a recent decline to a rise in the coming months, thus bringing new inflationary pressure. On the other hand, taking into account the global supply chain stress index and the possible path of China\\'s PPI in the coming months, we expect that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI core commodities excluding energy and food may rebound slightly from the current low of around 0%. From the perspective of service industry inflation, considering the year-on-year trend of U.S. housing prices and the statistical lag in CPI housing inflation, we expect that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI housing inflation may continue to slow down slowly in the coming months, but may begin to pick up in the second half of 2024. On the other hand, under the assumption that the labor market continues to cool down (especially the year-on-year growth rate of hourly wages slows down), we expect that the CPI service industry (Super Core) excluding housing inflation is expected to show a slow decline in year-on-year growth in the next few months. situation. Overall, although the year-on-year trend of commodity inflation, including energy and food, may see some fluctuations in the next few months, the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI is still likely to be slow against the background that inflation in the service industry, which has a significantly larger weight, is expected to slowly cool down. fall back. However, after entering the second half of 2024, as the impact of rising housing prices on CPI gradually becomes apparent, there may be greater upward pressure on inflation. The impact of geopolitical uncertainty on supply chains, commodities, etc. may also bring upward risks to inflation. We expect U.S. CPI year-on-year growth to remain around 3% in the coming months, but there are upside risks. At the same time, the Cleveland Fed\\'s CPI Nowcasting indicator shows that U.S. CPI and core CPI were about 3.3% and 3.7% respectively in March. It also shows that the current inflationary pressure in the United States is still relatively high. The slightly higher-than-expected inflation data did not break the \"recovery trade\", and US stocks rebounded in a V-shape during the session. Although the release of inflation data that was slightly higher than expected caused a short-term impact on the market, it did not break the \"recovery trade\" since the beginning of 2024. Within minutes after the data was released, long-term U.S. bond yields surged higher and U.S. stocks fell. However, this fluctuation was quickly reversed, and eventually U.S. bond long-term yields and U.S. stocks rose together again that day. In the March 11 \"Overseas Macro and Major Assets Monthly Report: The Rise of Spring\" report, we mentioned that \"the stock index and U.S. bond yields have risen together, suggesting that the market trading theme clue may have shifted from inflation/the Federal Reserve to economic fundamentals/ corporate profits”. The momentum of a rebound in corporate earnings may be a key support for U.S. stocks to outperform in the face of higher inflation. On the other hand, the inflation data did not significantly change the market��s expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy path. The market\\'s expected probability of an interest rate cut in June remains basically unchanged, but the cumulative rate of interest rate cuts in 2024 has been slightly reduced. Risk warning: U.S. inflation trends deviate from expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('f45139fc-bbea-5975-8c64-cec4e899633c'), 'sentimentScore': 0.5318552255630493, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'UGAFUUQVN7M1G25P3OV6SVVIQVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:50 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'UGAFUUQVN7M1G25P3OV6SVVIQVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e438077a-067b-5b03-8075-d4bafdc58294'), 'title': '[Guangdong Open Macro] Basic characteristics, influencing factors and policy suggestions of wage income', 'author': 'Luo Zhiheng, Ma Jiajin', 'orgName': '粤开证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000118', 'orgSName': '粤开证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKECRhHui4XyikoZSrlxTJoEI=', 'researcher': '罗志恒,马家进', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245432', '11000375233'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKECRhHui4XyikoZSrlxTJoEI=', 'site': 'Guangdong Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '粤开证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626610503_1.pdf?1710342602000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626610503_1.pdf?1710342602000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '[Guangdong Open Macro] Basic characteristics, influencing factors and policy suggestions of wage income', 'originalAuthor': '罗志恒,马家进', 'originalContent': '摘要居民收入增速较疫情前放缓，是当前居民消费不足、楼市低迷、信心不振的重要原因，拖累经济平稳恢复。2023年全国居民人均可支配收入增长6.3%，低于疫情前2019年的8.8%。《政府工作报告》将“居民收入增长和经济增长同步”与“多措并举稳就业促增收”分别列入了今年的主要预期目标和重点工作任务。劳动工资是居民的主要收入来源，是促增收的重要抓手。2023年城镇居民工资性收入占可支配收入的60.4%。工资增长将提高居民消费能力，降低预防性储蓄，增强居民消费信心和意愿。央行城镇储户问卷调查结果显示，当期收入感受上升，未来收入信心和当前消费意愿也将明显增强。1、不同行业、企业、岗位间的工资水平存在显著差异。1）行业方面，2022年城镇非私营单位的年平均工资，互联网、金融、科研技术行业位列前三，均在16万元以上；而制造业、房地产、建筑、公共设施管理、居民服务、农林牧渔、住宿餐饮等行业，年平均工资不足10万元。2）企业方面，同一行业中，城镇非私营单位中的其他单位（包括联营单位、有限责任公司、股份有限公司、外商投资和港澳台投资等）与城镇私营单位，企业的所有制性质相近，主要差别在于企业规模大小，前者的营收规模更大，2022年各行业平均工资比后者高出12.7%~119.8%。3）岗位方面，国家统计局统计了16个行业大类（不含金融、公共管理、农林牧渔业）的岗位工资数据，其中互联网、租赁商务、公共设施管理业的岗位工资差距位列前三，2022年岗位平均工资最高与最低之比都在4.5倍以上；工资差距最小的是建筑业和住宿餐饮业，岗位平均工资最高与最低之比不到2.3倍，二者也是平均工资水平较低、农民工就业人数较多的行业。4）个税方面，由于个人所得税是累进税，因此行业平均工资越高、岗位工资差距越大，行业的人均个人所得税也会越高。2022年人均个人所得税最高的三个行业分别是金融、租赁商务、互联网行业，最低的是建筑、教育、住宿餐饮、公共设施管理业。虽然租赁商务业的平均工资只是中等水平，但岗位工资差距显著，因此人均个税较高；而公共设施管理业虽然岗位工资差距显著，但平均工资较低，因此人均个税也较低。2、市场机制是决定工资水平的主要力量。党的二十大报告提出，要“构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制，充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用，更好发挥政府作用”。根据新古典分配理论，劳动、资本、土地等生产要素的均衡价格等于其在商品和服务生产中的边际贡献，贡献越大，要素价格越高。工资是劳动的要素价格，均衡工资等于劳动的边际产出。资本密集型和技术密集型的高端制造业和服务业，其从业人员的工资之所以能高于劳动密集型的传统和低附加值制造业和服务业，是因为前者的边际产出比后者更高，创造的经济价值更大。3、当前工资增速受到经济下行压力和物价低迷影响。当前我国宏观经济总体处于疫后恢复期，但面临一些困难和挑战：一是有效需求不足，居民消费和企业投资意愿不强；二是部分行业存在重复布局和内卷式竞争，出现产能过剩；三是物价水平低位运行，尤其是PPI降幅较大，导致企业利润下降、债务负担加重、投资意愿降低、财政收入放缓。宏观经济的压力会传导至行业、企业和居民，导致实际工资增速放缓；而低迷的物价也会压低名义增速，造成宏观数据与微观感受的背离。总的来看，中国经济回升向好的势头不会改变，既有经济自身的内生恢复动能，也有稳增长政策的保驾护航。然而受外部形势复杂严峻、内部风险挑战等因素影响，节奏上可能呈现出波浪式发展、曲折式前进的特征，或对居民工资收入增长造成扰动。4、如何提高居民工资收入？第一，稳增长稳就业是最有效、最普惠的方式。有必要强化宏观政策逆周期和跨周期调节，以财政政策和房地产政策为重点、以提振预期和就业优先政策为核心，加快经济回升向好。第二，劳动力跨区域、跨行业自由流动是基本要求。要构建灵活、可竞争的市场机制，以深化改革户籍制度和基本公共服务提供机制为路径，加快破除妨碍劳动力市场化配置和自由流动的障碍，促进人力资源优化配置。第三，充分激发民营企业活力是重要保障。民营企业是创造就业岗位并发放劳动工资的重要市场主体，要从政策、制度、法治和理论层面将民营经济发展内嵌于社会主义市场经济之中，从根本上破解市场准入、要素获取、公平执法、权益保护等方面存在的问题。行业市场化程度越高，行业内民营企业的相对工资水平也越高；而在那些行政性垄断程度较高的行业，国有单位的平均工资要显著高于民营企业。风险提示：外部冲击超预期、稳增长政策超预期', 'content': 'Abstract The growth rate of residents\\' income has slowed down compared with that before the epidemic. This is an important reason for the current insufficient consumption of residents, the sluggish property market, and low confidence, which has hindered the smooth recovery of the economy. The per capita disposable income of national residents will grow by 6.3% in 2023, which is lower than the 8.8% in 2019 before the epidemic. The \"Government Work Report\" lists \"synchronizing residents\\' income growth with economic growth\" and \"taking multiple measures to stabilize employment and increase income\" as this year\\'s main expected goals and key tasks respectively. Labor wages are the main source of income for residents and an important starting point for increasing income. In 2023, urban residents’ wage income will account for 60.4% of disposable income. Wage growth will increase residents\\' spending power, reduce precautionary savings, and enhance residents\\' confidence and willingness to consume. The results of the central bank\\'s urban savers\\' questionnaire show that the current income experience has increased, and future income confidence and current consumption willingness will also be significantly enhanced. 1. There are significant differences in salary levels among different industries, companies, and positions. 1) In terms of industries, in terms of annual average wages in urban non-private units in 2022, the Internet, finance, and scientific research and technology industries rank among the top three, all above 160,000 yuan; while manufacturing, real estate, construction, public facilities management, resident services, In industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, accommodation and catering, the average annual salary is less than 100,000 yuan. 2) In terms of enterprises, in the same industry, other urban non-private units (including joint ventures, limited liability companies, joint stock companies, foreign investment, investment from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, etc.) are similar to urban private units, and the ownership nature of the enterprise is similar. The difference lies in the size of the company. The former has a larger revenue scale, and the average salary in various industries in 2022 is 12.7% to 119.8% higher than the latter. 3) In terms of jobs, the National Bureau of Statistics has compiled job salary data for 16 major industry categories (excluding finance, public management, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery). Among them, the salary gap among jobs in the Internet, leasing business, and public facilities management industries ranks top Third, in 2022, the ratio of the highest to the lowest average salary for the job will be more than 4.5 times; the smallest wage gap is in the construction industry and the accommodation and catering industry, where the ratio of the highest to the lowest average salary will be less than 2.3 times. The two industries also have relatively higher average salary levels. Industries with low employment rates and a large number of migrant workers. 4) In terms of personal income tax, since personal income tax is a progressive tax, the higher the average salary in the industry and the greater the wage gap between positions, the higher the per capita personal income tax in the industry will be. The three industries with the highest per capita personal income tax in 2022 are finance, leasing business, and the Internet industry, while the lowest are construction, education, accommodation and catering, and public facilities management. Although the average salary in the leasing business industry is only at a medium level, the salary gap between positions is significant, so the per capita personal income tax is high; while in the public facilities management industry, although the salary gap between positions is significant, the average salary is low, so the per capita personal income tax is also low . 2. The market mechanism is the main force that determines wage levels. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to \"build a high-level socialist market economic system, give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation, and better play the role of the government.\" According to neoclassical distribution theory, the equilibrium price of production factors such as labor, capital, and land is equal to their marginal contribution in the production of goods and services. The greater the contribution, the higher the factor price. Wage is the factor price of labor, and the equilibrium wage is equal to the marginal product of labor. The reason why the wages of employees in capital-intensive and technology-intensive high-end manufacturing and service industries are higher than those in labor-intensive traditional and low value-added manufacturing and service industries is because the marginal output of the former is higher than that of the latter Higher, the economic value created is greater. 3. The current wage growth rate is affected by the downward pressure on the economy and low prices. At present, China\\'s macro-economy is generally in the post-epidemic recovery period, but it faces some difficulties and challenges: First, effective demand is insufficient, and residents\\' consumption and corporate investment willingness are not strong; second, some industries have duplication of layout and involution competition, resulting in overcapacity; Third, the price level is running at a low level, especially the PPI has dropped significantly, which has led to a decline in corporate profits, an increase in debt burden, a reduction in investment willingness, and a slowdown in fiscal revenue. Macroeconomic pressure will be transmitted to industries, companies and residents, causing real wage growth to slow down; and depressed prices will also depress nominal growth, causing a discrepancy between macro data and micro perceptions. Overall, China\\'s economic recovery will not change. It has both the economy\\'s own endogenous recovery momentum and the protection of growth-stabilizing policies. However, due to the complex and severe external situation, internal risk challenges and other factors, the pace may show the characteristics of wave-like development and zigzag progress, or cause disturbance to the growth of residents\\' wage income. 4. How to increase residents’ wage income? First, stabilizing growth and employment is the most effective and universally beneficial way. It is necessary to strengthen counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, focus on fiscal policy and real estate policy, and focus on boosting expectations and employment priority policies to accelerate economic recovery. Second, free movement of labor across regions and industries is a basic requirement. It is necessary to build a flexible and competitive market mechanism, take the path of deepening the reform of the household registration system and the basic public service provision mechanism, accelerate the removal of obstacles that hinder the market-oriented allocation and free flow of labor, and promote the optimal allocation of human resources. Third, fully stimulating the vitality of private enterprises is an important guarantee. Private enterprises are important market entities that create jobs and pay labor wages. They must embed the development of the private economy in the socialist market economy from the policy, system, legal and theoretical levels, and fundamentally crack down on market access, factor acquisition, Problems in fair law enforcement and protection of rights and interests. The higher the degree of marketization of an industry, the higher the relative wage level of private enterprises in the industry; and in those industries with a high degree of administrative monopoly, the average wage of state-owned units is significantly higher than that of private enterprises. Risk warning: External shocks exceed expectations, and policies to stabilize growth exceed expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('3a3f588e-caa1-5e3b-bce3-f7ec5e6b279a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8841436859220266, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'R8EK2LC7P7ROOLF5M2RHJ42SM3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:37:53 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'R8EK2LC7P7ROOLF5M2RHJ42SM3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8808268f-2087-5bfc-b028-cde5df6dc795'), 'title': 'U.S. Economy: CPI exceeds expectations again, but does not change the possibility of first interest rate cut in June', 'author': 'Ye Bingnan, Liu Zehui', 'orgName': '招银国际金融有限公司', 'orgCode': '80027629', 'orgSName': '招银国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEDFI2TQ11pCo1fGiidfL6Qw=', 'researcher': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000395738', '11000444841'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEDFI2TQ11pCo1fGiidfL6Qw=', 'site': 'CMB International Capital Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招银国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626609847_1.pdf?1710339170000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626609847_1.pdf?1710339170000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. Economy: CPI exceeds expectations again, but does not change the possibility of first interest rate cut in June', 'originalAuthor': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'originalContent': '美国2月CPI和核心CPI环比增速连续第二个月高于市场预期，CPI同比增速也小幅反弹。食品价格回落，但能源与核心商品价格反弹。服务通胀小幅回落，业主等价租金环比涨幅收窄令市场宽慰，但能源服务、运输服务价格反弹推动超级核心服务通胀小幅回升。CPI略超预期将强化美联储保持观望而不立即降息的态度，预计3月和5月议息会议将保持利率不变。通胀数据公布后，10年国债收益率从4.09%最高升至近4.17%，美元指数走强，但美股小幅上扬，货币市场预期6月美联储降息概率保持在70%不变。由于春季出行需求推动汽油价格回升与基数效应，3月CPI同比可能延续反弹；但二手车等核心商品与房租通胀回落将推动核心CPI增速延续回落。预计第二季度美国经济和就业将有所降温。美联储可能避免在临近大选前的第三季度启动政策转向，6月首次降息的可能性相对更大，预计全年降息幅度100个基点，年末联邦基金利率在4.3%左右。食品价格回落，能源与核心商品价格反弹。美国CPI环比增速从1月的0.3%反弹至0.4%，连续两月高于市场预期，同比增速从3.1%小幅反弹至3.2%。食品价格环比持平，较1月的0.4%有所下降。其中外出就餐环比增速从0.5%降至0.1%，为2021年初以来最低。能源价格环比反弹2.3%，而1月环比下降1.9%，但同比增速延续回落，其中汽油价格环比增速从1月的-3.3%大幅反弹至2月的3.8%。3月前两周汽油价格较2月延续上涨近4.5%，由于今年春季天气较暖，提前的出行需求可能继续推动汽油价格环比回升。核心商品价格环比反弹0.1%，同比下降0.3%，服装和二手车价格成为核心商品反弹的最大推手。二手车价格在1月环比大幅下降3.4%后小幅反弹0.5%，服装环比上涨0.6%。展望未来，从二手车批发价等先行指标来看，核心商品通胀可能延续回落；食品价格将继续下降，但能源价格同比增速可能将逐渐重返正区间。服务通胀小幅回落但仍在高位，运输服务价格反弹制约去通胀速度。核心CPI环比增速与1月持平达到0.4%，高于预期的0.3%，同比增速从3.9%回落至3.8%。核心服务环比增速从0.7%降至0.5%，主要由于占CPI权重超过三分之一的房租环比增速从1月的0.6%下降至0.4%，其中占权重最大的业主等价租金(OER)环比涨幅从0.6%降至0.4%，主要居所租金则从0.4%增至0.5%。BLS解释1月OER大幅反弹因为独栋房屋占比提升，2月OER环比涨幅放缓则缓解了市场对房租通胀可能反弹的担忧。但由于去年四季度以来独栋房屋价格反弹，短期内房租通胀降幅可能受限，从而制约通胀进一步下行速度。扣除房租外的超级核心服务价格环比增速与1月持平达到0.6%，医疗护理、专业服务、健康险、汽车保险和杂项个人服务环比增速显著放缓，但公共交通、机票、休闲服务价格环比涨幅扩大。美联储或在6月开始降息、全年降息1个百分点。2月CPI增速超预期强化美联储保持观望而不降息态度，预计3月和5月议息会议将保持政策利率不变。尽管2月CPI通胀延续超预期���但业主等价租金涨幅回落缓解市场之前担忧，货币市场对6月首次降息的预期不变。预计第二季度经济和通胀将保持温和放缓态势，而美联储可能避免在临近大选前的第三季度实施货币政策转向，因此6月首次降息的可能性较大。预计美联储全年降息幅度100个基点，年末联邦基金利率降至4.3%左右。美国名义GDP增速可能从2023年的6.3%降至2024年的4%，2024-2025年潜在名义GDP增速为4.2%左右，预计10年国债收益率从2023年末的3.9%降至2024年末的3.75%和2025年的3.6%。', 'content': \"The month-on-month growth rate of U.S. CPI and core CPI in February was higher than market expectations for the second consecutive month, and the year-on-year CPI growth rate also rebounded slightly. Food prices fell, but energy and core commodity prices rebounded. Service inflation fell slightly, and the month-on-month increase in landlord-equivalent rents narrowed, which relieved the market. However, the rebound in prices of energy services and transportation services drove a slight rebound in super-core service inflation. The slightly higher-than-expected CPI will strengthen the Fed's wait-and-see attitude and not immediately cut interest rates. It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the March and May interest rate meetings. After the inflation data was released, the 10-year Treasury yield rose from a maximum of 4.09% to nearly 4.17%. The U.S. dollar index strengthened, but U.S. stocks rose slightly. The money market expected that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June remained unchanged at 70%. Due to the rebound in gasoline prices and the base effect driven by travel demand in the spring, the CPI may continue to rebound year-on-year in March; however, the decline in core commodities such as used cars and rent inflation will push the core CPI growth rate to continue to decline. The U.S. economy and employment are expected to cool in the second quarter. The Federal Reserve may avoid starting a policy shift in the third quarter before the election. It is more likely to cut interest rates for the first time in June. It is expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points throughout the year, and the federal funds rate will be around 4.3% at the end of the year. Food prices fell, while energy and core commodity prices rebounded. The U.S. CPI growth rate rebounded from 0.3% in January to 0.4%, higher than market expectations for two consecutive months, and the year-on-year growth rate rebounded slightly from 3.1% to 3.2%. Food prices were flat month-on-month, down from 0.4% in January. Among them, the month-on-month growth rate of dining out dropped from 0.5% to 0.1%, the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Energy prices rebounded by 2.3% month-on-month, while falling by 1.9% month-on-month in January, but the year-on-year growth rate continued to decline. The month-on-month growth rate of gasoline prices rebounded sharply from -3.3% in January to 3.8% in February. In the first two weeks of March, gasoline prices continued to rise by nearly 4.5% compared with February. Due to warmer weather this spring, early travel demand may continue to push gasoline prices up month-on-month. Prices of core commodities rebounded by 0.1% month-on-month and fell 0.3% year-on-year. Clothing and second-hand car prices became the biggest drivers of the rebound in core commodities. Second-hand car prices rebounded slightly by 0.5% after a sharp drop of 3.4% month-on-month in January, while clothing prices rose 0.6% month-on-month. Looking to the future, judging from leading indicators such as second-hand car wholesale prices, core commodity inflation may continue to fall; food prices will continue to decline, but the year-on-year growth rate of energy prices may gradually return to the positive range. Service inflation fell slightly but is still at a high level, and the rebound in transportation service prices restricted the speed of de-inflation. The core CPI month-on-month growth rate was unchanged from January at 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3%, and the year-on-year growth rate dropped from 3.9% to 3.8%. The month-on-month growth rate of core services dropped from 0.7% to 0.5%, mainly due to the month-on-month growth rate of rent, which accounts for more than one-third of the CPI weight, falling to 0.4% from 0.6% in January. Among them, the owner's equivalent rent (OER), which accounts for the largest weight, ) month-on-month increase fell from 0.6% to 0.4%, while the rent of primary residence increased from 0.4% to 0.5%. The BLS explained that the sharp rebound in OER in January was due to the increase in the proportion of single-family homes. The slowdown in OER month-on-month growth in February alleviated market concerns about a possible rebound in rent inflation. However, due to the rebound in single-family house prices since the fourth quarter of last year, the decline in rent inflation may be limited in the short term, thus restricting the further decline in inflation. The month-on-month growth rate of super core service prices excluding rent was unchanged from January at 0.6%. The month-on-month growth rate of medical care, professional services, health insurance, car insurance and miscellaneous personal services slowed significantly, but the price growth of public transportation, air tickets, and leisure services The month-on-month increase expanded. The Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in June and cut interest rates by 1 percentage point throughout the year. The higher-than-expected growth rate of CPI in February strengthened the Fed's wait-and-see attitude and not to cut interest rates. It is expected that the policy rate will remain unchanged at the March and May interest rate meetings. Although CPI inflation continued to exceed expectations in February, the decline in owner-equivalent rent growth eased the market's previous concerns, and the money market's expectations for the first interest rate cut in June remained unchanged. The economy and inflation are expected to maintain a moderate slowdown in the second quarter, and the Federal Reserve may avoid implementing a monetary policy shift in the third quarter before the election. Therefore, the first interest rate cut in June is more likely. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points throughout the year, with the federal funds rate falling to around 4.3% by the end of the year. The U.S. nominal GDP growth rate may fall from 6.3% in 2023 to 4% in 2024. The potential nominal GDP growth rate in 2024-2025 is about 4.2%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is expected to fall from 3.9% at the end of 2023 to the end of 2024. 3.75% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2025.\", 'authorid': UUID('08f97a71-1879-5f33-a1aa-79c7a17d8bf9'), 'sentimentScore': 0.5541839450597763, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'VQ9V5OUIITDIQOFKA6041JF7URVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:06 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'VQ9V5OUIITDIQOFKA6041JF7URVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a996335f-b10e-5c01-8386-851b73dc1b2c'), 'title': 'Low-altitude economic framework report: The first year of the low-altitude economy has arrived, but the sails are sailing but the trade winds', 'author': 'Su Yi', 'orgName': '中泰证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000157', 'orgSName': '中泰证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEAzouKGjil532KG9QjppN4M=', 'researcher': '苏仪', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000301031'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEAzouKGjil532KG9QjppN4M=', 'site': 'Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中泰证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626609689_1.pdf?1710340048000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626609689_1.pdf?1710340048000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Low-altitude economic framework report: The first year of the low-altitude economy has arrived, but the sails are sailing but the trade winds', 'originalAuthor': '苏仪', 'originalContent': '摘要“低空”通常指距正下方地平面垂直距离在1000米以内的空域（根据不同地区特点和实际需要可延伸至3000米）人民日报刊登的文章《科技引领，促进低空经济腾飞》提到，到“十四五”末，我国低空经济对国民经济的综合贡献值将达到3-5万亿元。“填空白、补短板，创新发展模式，加强运营环境建设，拓展终端应用市场，才能激发产业活力、释放消费潜力。”文章明确，当此之际，各地应当因地制宜出台支持政策，完善地方性法规，聚焦解决空域开放和地面基础设施建设等问题，推动尽快建立健全低空领域基础标准、技术标准、管理标准、行业标准体系，切实保障低空经济健康发展。低空经济是一个融合发展的综合经济形态。可以理解为以民用有人驾驶和无人驾驶航空器为载体，以载人、载货及其他作业等多场景低空飞行活动为牵引。目前在部分领域已经有了广泛应用：风光游览、城市安防、医疗救护、应急救援、农林植保、电力巡检等。风险提示：低空开放政策进度不及预期；空域开放不及预期；低空航空器技术及配套设施发展缓慢；旅游观光等消费需求不足；市场竞争加剧；研报使用信息更新不及时的风险等。', 'content': 'Abstract \"Low altitude\" usually refers to the airspace within 1,000 meters of the vertical distance from the ground level directly below (it can be extended to 3,000 meters according to different regional characteristics and actual needs). The article \"Science and Technology Leads to Promote the Take-off of Low-altitude Economy\" published in the People\\'s Daily mentioned that, By the end of the \"14th Five-Year Plan\", the comprehensive contribution value of my country\\'s low-altitude economy to the national economy will reach 3-5 trillion yuan. \"Only by filling gaps, making up for shortcomings, innovating development models, strengthening the construction of operating environment, and expanding the terminal application market can we stimulate industrial vitality and release consumption potential.\" The article makes it clear that at this time, all localities should introduce support policies according to local conditions and improve local regulations, focusing on solving issues such as airspace opening and ground infrastructure construction, promoting the establishment and improvement of basic standards, technical standards, management standards, and industry standard systems in the low-altitude field as soon as possible to effectively ensure the healthy development of the low-altitude economy. The low-altitude economy is a comprehensive economic form that integrates development. It can be understood that civil manned and unmanned aircraft are used as carriers, and multi-scenario low-altitude flight activities such as manned, cargo and other operations are used as traction. At present, it has been widely used in some fields: scenery tours, urban security, medical rescue, emergency rescue, agriculture, forestry and plant protection, power inspection, etc. Risk warning: The progress of the low-altitude opening policy is less than expected; the opening of airspace is less than expected; the development of low-altitude aircraft technology and supporting facilities is slow; consumer demand for tourism and sightseeing is insufficient; market competition intensifies; the risk of untimely updates of research and use information, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('d27b90f9-8896-5e73-bce2-d322755dfad3'), 'sentimentScore': 0.08165724761784077, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'P8ACCAU1UIB6V03J7C1DGIBP7JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:09 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'P8ACCAU1UIB6V03J7C1DGIBP7JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b89f4ac8-3674-55a2-9a54-d11ad59235de'), 'title': '2024 Mood and Healthy Sleep White Paper', 'author': 'Guo Qiaoyu', 'orgName': '艾瑞股份', 'orgCode': '80365131', 'orgSName': '艾瑞股份', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEDY9VdV6/sSnJtWHF2alFCk=', 'researcher': '郭乔羽', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000460338'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEDY9VdV6/sSnJtWHF2alFCk=', 'site': 'iResearch', 'originalSite': '艾瑞股份', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626609383_1.pdf?1710337237000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626609383_1.pdf?1710337237000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '2024 Mood and Healthy Sleep White Paper', 'originalAuthor': '郭乔羽', 'originalContent': '2024年，国民对“健康”的定义更加多元大众健康意识提升，人们对健康的理解从“无病无痛”，延伸到“身心健康、精神面貌、外在形象、生活作息”等多方面。受公共健康事件、悦己理念等影响，大众开始关注自我感受，健康管理的意识也逐渐渗透至心理健康管理、容貌管理。人们对自身的健康状态也提出了更高要求和期待人们对自身健康状态也提出了更高要求和期待，仅有11.0%的受访者表示，对自己目前的健康状况“十分满意”。整体而言，61.3%的受访者对自己的健康状况“较为满意”。其中，男性对自己健康状况的满意度略高于女性。大众持续关注健康状况，睡眠困扰成为国民问题95%的受访者表示，最近一年有过健康困扰，人均3.6个健康困扰，担忧普涨。其中，睡眠问题、皮肤状态不好、肠胃不好、脱发、情绪问题成为国民的五大健康困扰。', 'content': 'In 2024, the national definition of \"health\" will become more diverse and public health awareness will increase. People\\'s understanding of health will extend from \"no disease and no pain\" to \"physical and mental health, mental outlook, external image, daily routine\" and other aspects. Affected by public health incidents and the concept of self-pleasure, the public has begun to pay attention to self-feeling, and the awareness of health management has gradually penetrated into mental health management and appearance management. People have also put forward higher demands and expectations for their own health status. Only 11.0% of the respondents said they were \"very satisfied\" with their current health status. Overall, 61.3% of the respondents were \"relatively satisfied\" with their health status. Among them, men are slightly more satisfied with their health than women. The public continues to pay attention to health conditions, and sleep problems have become a national problem. 95% of the respondents said they have had health problems in the past year, with an average of 3.6 health problems per capita. Concerns are generally rising. Among them, sleeping problems, poor skin condition, gastrointestinal problems, hair loss, and emotional problems have become the top five health problems for the people.', 'authorid': UUID('093702d6-3e7e-5e2a-a6fb-a03a5112b2c3'), 'sentimentScore': 0.08267176523804665, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'VJEC8VCE18DEPMANUGF64SFVHNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:11 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'VJEC8VCE18DEPMANUGF64SFVHNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e07c43cf-5500-5cae-b699-7996fa003e84'), 'title': 'Comments on US CPI in February: Inflation has rebounded again, and core pressure is difficult to relieve', 'author': 'Cai Rui, Li Shaojin', 'orgName': '交银国际证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80101832', 'orgSName': '交银国际证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEKQeCIqaBTGC4xY4Pv+kQg4=', 'researcher': '蔡瑞,李少金', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000442439', '11000445033'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEKQeCIqaBTGC4xY4Pv+kQg4=', 'site': 'BOCOM International Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '交银国际证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626609374_1.pdf?1710336979000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626609374_1.pdf?1710336979000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on US CPI in February: Inflation has rebounded again, and core pressure is difficult to relieve', 'originalAuthor': '蔡瑞,李少金', 'originalContent': '美国2024年2月CPI同比增3.2%，高于市场预期以及上月的3.1%；环比增0.4%，持平预期，但高于上月0.3%。核心CPI同比增3.8%，高于市场预期3.7%，但低于上月3.9%。核心CPI环比0.4%，高于预期0.3%，与上月一致。汽油价格大涨是本月总体通胀超预期的主要推手。汽油价格的上升是2月名义通胀超预期的主要驱动因素，其环比由上月的-3.2%，跳升为3.6%。而能源服务价格虽有所回落，但环比增速依然较为强劲。能源产品和服务两项共同推动能源价格环比升2.3%，贡献了CPI月度超三分之一的涨幅。尽管随着冬季过去，能源服务价格可能将回落，但半导体、AI等产业对用电的中长期压力犹在。此外，地缘局势对能源价格的扰动仍不可忽视。且由于居民对能源价格的感知度较高，通胀预期近期有所上升。核心商品价格反弹，供应链压力难解。二手车价格在上月大幅回落后再度上涨，考虑到其前瞻性指标已回落，预计二手车对商品价格造成的扰动应有限。但此外，红海紧张局势尚未停歇，对航运价格仍形成扰动，供应链压力短期难以缓解，或拖累整体商品通胀回落的进展。住房通胀缓解，但总体滞后性仍较强。继1月住房通胀大幅上涨后，2月住房通胀环比有所放缓。上月业主等价租金（OER）大幅上涨可能主要源于美国劳工部对数据源权重的调整，但后续可能仍会有此种偏差效应，且住房服务通胀总体滞后性仍较强，持续拖累核心通胀回落进程。剔除住房的核心服务通胀仍然顽固。美联储关注更为密切的剔除掉住房后的核心服务通胀仍然顽固，环比由上月的0.8，降至0.5%。其中，医疗服务价格压力缓解，但交通服务仍在加速上涨，机票价格及机动车保险价格热度难退。剔除住房的核心服务通胀与薪资增速相关性较高，2月非农就业数据显示薪资增速仍较高，超级核心通胀压力暂难缓解。再超预期的通胀数据对降息预期影响相对有限。利率期货市场隐含5月降息25基点概率为14.2%，而CPI数据公布前为17.9%；6月降息25基点的概率为60.8%，与CPI数据公布前相差不大。市场押注2024年全年降息在3-4次。后市观察：作为美联储3月FOMC会议前最后一份，也是最重要的参考数据，2月再超预期的通胀数据，以及此前仍显稳健的就业数据显然不能够给美联储官员足够的信心尽快降息。市场对仍显顽固的通胀数据有所脱敏，可能源于近日美联储主席鲍威尔在两院听证会上表示距离有信心开始降息“不远”了，认为预防式降息仍将会不久后开启。鉴于近期市场风险偏好处在较高位置，美股、比特币等风险资产接连创下新高，可能进一步限制了美联储进行预防式降息的���间。我们重申在1月FOMC会议纪要后的解读，即美联储对降息审慎，货币政策的边际调整更可能是以放缓缩表来实现的。我们延续对美联储降息审慎的判断，即降息时点和幅度可能均小于市场预期，投资者可能须警惕风险资产的回调风险。', 'content': 'The U.S. CPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year in February 2024, higher than market expectations and 3.1% last month; it increased 0.4% month-on-month, in line with expectations, but higher than 0.3% last month. Core CPI increased by 3.8% year-on-year, higher than market expectations of 3.7%, but lower than 3.9% last month. Core CPI was 0.4% month-on-month, 0.3% higher than expected and consistent with last month. A surge in gasoline prices was the main driver of higher-than-expected overall inflation this month. Rising gasoline prices were the main driver of higher-than-expected nominal inflation in February, which jumped to 3.6% month-on-month from -3.2% the previous month. Although energy service prices have fallen somewhat, the month-on-month growth rate is still relatively strong. Energy products and services jointly pushed energy prices up 2.3% month-on-month, contributing more than one-third of the monthly CPI increase. Although energy service prices may fall as winter passes, the mid- to long-term pressure on electricity consumption from industries such as semiconductors and AI remains. In addition, the impact of geopolitical tensions on energy prices cannot be ignored. And because residents have a higher perception of energy prices, inflation expectations have increased recently. Core commodity prices have rebounded, and supply chain pressures are difficult to resolve. Second-hand car prices have risen again after falling sharply last month. Considering that their forward-looking indicators have fallen back, the disruption caused by second-hand cars to commodity prices is expected to be limited. But in addition, tensions in the Red Sea have not subsided and are still causing disturbances to shipping prices. The pressure on the supply chain is difficult to alleviate in the short term, which may hinder the progress of the overall commodity inflation decline. Housing inflation has eased, but the overall lag is still strong. Following a sharp rise in housing inflation in January, housing inflation slowed down in February from the previous month. The sharp increase in owner-equivalent rent (OER) last month may be mainly due to the adjustment of the weight of data sources by the U.S. Department of Labor, but such bias effects may still occur in the future, and the overall lag in housing services inflation is still strong, continuing to drag down the core The process of inflation falling. Inflation in core services, which excludes housing, remains stubborn. The core services inflation excluding housing, which the Fed is watching more closely, remained stubborn, falling to 0.5% month-on-month from 0.8% last month. Among them, the pressure on medical service prices has eased, but transportation services are still rising at an accelerating pace, and air ticket prices and motor vehicle insurance prices are hard to stop. Core service inflation excluding housing has a high correlation with wage growth. February non-farm employment data shows that wage growth is still high, and super core inflation pressure is difficult to alleviate for the time being. Any higher-than-expected inflation data will have a relatively limited impact on interest rate cut expectations. The interest rate futures market implies that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in May is 14.2%, compared with 17.9% before the release of CPI data; the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in June is 60.8%, which is not much different from that before the release of CPI data. The market is betting on 3-4 interest rate cuts throughout 2024. Market Outlook Observation: As the last and most important reference data before the Federal Reserve\\'s March FOMC meeting, the inflation data that exceeded expectations again in February and the previously still solid employment data obviously do not give Federal Reserve officials enough confidence to cut interest rates as soon as possible. The market is desensitized to the still stubborn inflation data, which may be due to the fact that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the recent hearings of both houses that it is \"not far\" from confidence to start cutting interest rates, believing that preventive interest rate cuts will still start soon. Given that market risk appetite has been at a high level recently, risk assets such as U.S. stocks and Bitcoin have hit new highs one after another, which may further limit the Federal Reserve’s space for preventive interest rate cuts. We reiterate our interpretation after the January FOMC meeting minutes, that is, the Fed is cautious about cutting interest rates, and the marginal adjustment of monetary policy is more likely to be achieved by slowing down the balance sheet. We continue to be cautious about the Fed\\'s interest rate cut, that is, the timing and magnitude of the rate cut may be smaller than market expectations, and investors may need to be wary of the risk of a correction in risky assets.', 'authorid': UUID('2427af0c-0a21-5003-abde-02bb4ca518e3'), 'sentimentScore': 0.7983054146170616, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'D76HLVMMGQ6EDKFL2SAGKQHKF3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'D76HLVMMGQ6EDKFL2SAGKQHKF3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7ff795a1-2d84-5a1c-a199-09b89dfa1e21'), 'title': 'Overseas Observation: US CPI in February 2024 - Has the downward trend of US inflation reversed?', 'author': 'Hu Shaohua, Liu Sijia', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEHXmjrKE48UfIoWGAhV0ZwQ=', 'researcher': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249934', '11000257478'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEHXmjrKE48UfIoWGAhV0ZwQ=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626603618_1.pdf?1710335331000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626603618_1.pdf?1710335331000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas Observation: US CPI in February 2024 - Has the downward trend of US inflation reversed?', 'originalAuthor': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'originalContent': '投资要点事件：2月美国CPI同比上涨3.2%，前值3.1%，预期3.1%；环比上涨0.4%，前值0.3%，预期0.4%。核心CPI同比上涨3.8%，前值3.9%，预期3.7%；环比上涨0.4%，前值0.4%，预期0.3%。核心观点：美国2月CPI超预期，通胀下降趋势不明显。能源和房租价格上涨是主因。核心通胀仍显韧性，核心服务价格与当月薪资增速脱钩，未来仍有进一步下降的可能性。市场推迟美联储降息预期。美国经济政策前景将依赖于就业和通胀数据的后续变化。由于美国实际工资仍在增长，消费难以骤降，除非金融市场发生危机，否则就业降温仍将缓慢。未来一段时间，通胀可能仍是美联储的首要关切。目前的数据虽然没有显示通胀下行的趋势已经逆转，但显然也无法给美联储信心。3月FOMC可能温和放鹰。美国通胀续超预期，下降趋势不明显。2月美国CPI同比增速再次上升，高于市场预期。核心CPI同比增速较上月略有下滑、环比增速持平，均高于市场预期。除去住房外的核心服务价格同比上涨3.9%，环比季调后上涨0.6%，环比增幅与上月持平，反映出美国核心通胀的韧性依然很强。美国CPI的同比增速于2023年6月降至3.1%后，至今的3个季度都仍维持在3%以上，虽然仍在下行，但趋势已非常不明显。能源和房租仍是推动CPI上涨的主因。2月，能源价格上涨2.3%，成为美国CPI上升的重要推手。由于国际油价走高，汽油和燃油分别上涨3.8%和1.1%。住房价格上涨0.4%，较上月略有下跌，但仍是美国CPI的最大贡献项。主要住所租金、业主等价租金，分别上涨0.5%、0.4%。美国房价高位、就业市场维持韧性之下，租金价格下降速度可能仍将缓慢。核心通胀韧性仍强。2月，核心商品价格CPI由跌转涨，环比上涨0.1%。二手车和服装价格的上涨是主要原因，分别上涨0.5%和0.6%。核心服务价格环比上升0.5%，涨幅较上月小幅下降0.2pct。除住房外的核心服务价格环比增长0.6%，与前值持平，主要原因是交通、机票、娱乐价格上涨。鉴于2月美国就业偏弱、薪资增速低于预期，当月的核心服务价格上涨较为意外，可能滞后于服务业薪资的变化。如果美国就业市场维持2月的走弱趋势，核心通胀未来仍有加速下降的可能性。市场推迟降息预期。由于通胀高于预期，联邦基金利率期货计价的6月降息概率从71.5%下滑至67.5%。美债波动加大，美元汇率上升，标普500指数上涨。美国通胀韧性或将持续，美联储降息时点可能依旧遥远。除去能源、房租两项较为不可控的因素，核心服务可能是未来美国通胀下行的希望。服务价格取决于美国的就业市场是否能继续降温。美国就业市场近两个月来的趋势较为扑朔，1月过热，2月又急速冷却，总体趋势仍有待观察。但由于美国实际工资仍在增长，消费难以骤降，除非金融市场发生危机，否则就业降温仍将缓慢。未来一段时间，通胀可能仍是美联储的首要关切。1月FOMC会议上，鲍威尔表示，美联储需要对通胀能够降至2%有充分信心，才能开始逐步放松限制性政策。目前的数据虽然没有显示通胀下行的趋势已经逆转，但显然也无法给美联储信心。3月FOMC会议上，美联储可能温和放鹰，一边推迟降息预期，一边强化软着陆前景以稳定资本市场信心。需要关注3月会议上美联储对后续缩表节奏的安排。风险提示：中国出口商品价格波动可能影响美国通胀；地缘政治风险。', 'content': \"Key investment events: U.S. CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year in February, compared with the previous value of 3.1%, and 3.1% expected; it rose 0.4% month-on-month, compared with the previous value of 0.3%, and 0.4% expected. Core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, the previous value was 3.9%, and the expectation was 3.7%; it rose 0.4% month-on-month, the previous value was 0.4%, and the expectation was 0.3%. Core view: U.S. CPI in February exceeded expectations, and the downward trend in inflation is not obvious. Rising energy and rent prices are the main reasons. Core inflation remains resilient, core service prices are decoupled from monthly wage growth, and there is still the possibility of further declines in the future. The market postponed expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The outlook for U.S. economic policy will depend on subsequent changes in employment and inflation data. Since real wages in the United States are still growing, consumption is unlikely to plummet. Unless there is a crisis in the financial market, employment will continue to cool slowly. Inflation is likely to remain the Fed's primary concern for some time to come. Although the current data does not show that the downward trend in inflation has been reversed, it obviously cannot give confidence to the Fed. The March FOMC may be mildly hawkish. U.S. inflation continues to exceed expectations, and the downward trend is not obvious. In February, the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI increased again, higher than market expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of core CPI dropped slightly from the previous month, while the month-on-month growth rate was flat, both higher than market expectations. Prices of core services excluding housing rose 3.9% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month after seasonally adjustment. The month-on-month increase was the same as last month, reflecting that the resilience of U.S. core inflation remains strong. After the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI dropped to 3.1% in June 2023, it has remained above 3% for the past three quarters. Although it is still declining, the trend is no longer obvious. Energy and rent are still the main factors driving the rise in CPI. In February, energy prices rose by 2.3%, becoming an important driver of the rise in US CPI. Due to higher international oil prices, gasoline and fuel oil increased by 3.8% and 1.1% respectively. Housing prices rose 0.4%, a slight decrease from the previous month, but still the largest contributor to US CPI. Main residence rent and owner-equivalent rent increased by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. With U.S. housing prices remaining high and the job market remaining resilient, rental prices may still decline slowly. Core inflation remains strong. In February, the core commodity price CPI turned from falling to rising, rising by 0.1% month-on-month. Rising prices of used cars and clothing were the main reasons, rising by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively. Core service prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, a slight decrease of 0.2pct from the previous month. Prices of core services other than housing increased by 0.6% month-on-month, the same as the previous value, mainly due to increases in transportation, air tickets, and entertainment prices. Given that U.S. employment was weak and wage growth was lower than expected in February, the increase in core service prices that month was unexpected and may lag behind changes in service industry wages. If the U.S. job market maintains its weakening trend in February, there is still the possibility that core inflation will accelerate in the future. The market postponed interest rate cut expectations. Due to higher-than-expected inflation, the probability of a June rate cut based on federal funds rate futures fell from 71.5% to 67.5%. U.S. debt volatility increased, the U.S. dollar exchange rate rose, and the S&P 500 index rose. The resilience of U.S. inflation may continue, and the time for the Fed to cut interest rates may still be far away. Excluding the two relatively uncontrollable factors of energy and rent, core services may be the hope for downward inflation in the United States in the future. Prices for services depend on whether the U.S. job market continues to cool. The trend of the U.S. job market in the past two months has been complicated. It was overheated in January and cooled rapidly in February. The overall trend remains to be seen. However, since real wages in the United States are still growing, consumption is unlikely to plummet. Unless there is a crisis in the financial market, employment will continue to cool slowly. Inflation is likely to remain the Fed's primary concern for some time to come. At the January FOMC meeting, Powell said that the Fed needs to be fully confident that inflation can be reduced to 2% before it can begin to gradually relax restrictive policies. Although the current data does not show that the downward trend in inflation has been reversed, it obviously cannot give confidence to the Fed. At the March FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve may be mildly hawkish, delaying interest rate cut expectations while strengthening the prospect of a soft landing to stabilize capital market confidence. We need to pay attention to the Fed's arrangements for the subsequent pace of balance sheet reduction at the March meeting. Risk warning: Price fluctuations in China’s export commodities may affect U.S. inflation; geopolitical risks.\", 'authorid': UUID('f33028d3-8791-5b14-80ca-a862e2ba251a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6325174272060394, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'J1QQ7IS559LG8O7J2L836BR00JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:18 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'J1QQ7IS559LG8O7J2L836BR00JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e0b82dd2-20bc-50e6-ae27-5d01e10c2fef'), 'title': 'Central Bank Operation Daily', 'author': 'Li Mingyu', 'orgName': '新湖期货股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80030099', 'orgSName': '新湖期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEMHkZEfFCgH/ewltGIxsLmk=', 'researcher': '李明玉', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197321'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEMHkZEfFCgH/ewltGIxsLmk=', 'site': 'Xinhu Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '新湖期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626602532_1.pdf?1710342408000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626602532_1.pdf?1710342408000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Central Bank Operation Daily', 'originalAuthor': '李明玉', 'originalContent': '公开市场操作：3月13日|中国央行今日进行30亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.80%，与此前持平。因今日有100亿元7天期逆回购到期，当日实现净回笼？0亿元曰人U日心uvvMLF操作：今日央行无MLF投放与操作，中标利率为2.50%，与此前一致PSL操作：今日央行无PSL投放与操作。TILF：今日无TMLF到期与操作。国库定存操作：今日无国库定存到期及操作。', 'content': 'Open market operations: March 13 | The People’s Bank of China conducted a 3 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation today, with the winning rate at 1.80%, the same as before. Because 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase expires today, will a net withdrawal be achieved on that day? 0 billion Japanese U heliocentric uvvMLF operation: There is no MLF placement and operation by the central bank today, and the winning interest rate is 2.50%, which is consistent with the previous PSL operation: There is no PSL placement and operation by the central bank today. TILF: There are no TMLF expirations and operations today. Treasury fixed deposit operations: There are no treasury fixed deposit expirations and operations today.', 'authorid': UUID('06615761-5e26-57d2-b056-2b9f0d8913bd'), 'sentimentScore': 0.05591055378317833, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GFB7BI6T07L7KP0PAM08RJPRNVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:21 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GFB7BI6T07L7KP0PAM08RJPRNVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('850f0bdd-515c-540a-8754-7d18b91fde9a'), 'title': 'Macro Comment: The impact of price wars on price levels', 'author': 'Song Xuetao, Sun Yongle', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEO3DAJzAM86mpvK8nHiFvUY=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛,孙永乐', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658', '11000337036'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEO3DAJzAM86mpvK8nHiFvUY=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626602528_1.pdf?1710329437000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626602528_1.pdf?1710329437000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: The impact of price wars on price levels', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛,孙永乐', 'originalContent': '在CPI同比位于低点时，技术进步带来的汽车行业价���战对CPI的影响或不可忽视。假设今年手机价格跌幅近似去年，汽车价格降幅进一步下滑至-8%左右，预计会导致CPI同比增速下滑0.45个百分点左右。但本文仅估算了技术进步初期，价格战对CPI的影响。站在中长期看，价格战后，企业优胜劣汰，行业生态更加有效，技术进步对CPI的影响会减弱。同时，技术进步、生产效率提高能够带动经济增长并创造新的需求，这会带动CPI的上行。风险提示：权重估算存在误差，CPI波动超预期，价格战演进超预期', 'content': 'When CPI is at a low point year-on-year, the impact of price wars in the automobile industry brought about by technological progress on CPI may not be ignored. Assuming that the price drop of mobile phones this year is similar to that of last year, and the drop in car prices further drops to about -8%, it is expected that the year-on-year CPI growth rate will fall by about 0.45 percentage points. However, this article only estimates the impact of price wars on CPI in the early stages of technological progress. From a mid- to long-term perspective, after a price war, enterprises will survive and the fittest will survive, the industry ecology will be more effective, and the impact of technological progress on CPI will weaken. At the same time, technological progress and improved production efficiency can drive economic growth and create new demand, which will drive up the CPI. Risk warning: There are errors in weight estimation, CPI fluctuations exceed expectations, and the price war evolves beyond expectations', 'authorid': UUID('4449585e-c540-5def-a027-eb3ec7d62432'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8625787263736129, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'K6NOESU4C5P36UNVFGVD645D9RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:23 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'K6NOESU4C5P36UNVFGVD645D9RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('815a90b0-3cbc-589b-87f3-7380a7479aab'), 'title': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm payroll data in February: The U.S. labor market remains relatively stable and the window for interest rate cuts is narrow', 'author': 'Kangmingyi', 'orgName': '东兴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80114781', 'orgSName': '东兴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEBUZp30nujD5mELBbd742Jo=', 'researcher': '康明怡', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000270257'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEBUZp30nujD5mELBbd742Jo=', 'site': 'Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东兴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626602526_1.pdf?1710329357000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626602526_1.pdf?1710329357000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm payroll data in February: The U.S. labor market remains relatively stable and the window for interest rate cuts is narrow', 'originalAuthor': '康明怡', 'originalContent': '事件：美国2月季调后非农就业增27.5万，预期20万，前值从35.3万下修至22.9万人；失业率3.9%，预期3.7%，前值3.7%。劳动参与率62.5%，持平。时薪同比4.3%，预期4.3%，前值4.4%。主要观点：1、就业紧绷程度下降，非常接近疫情前的高位水平，上半年就业尚可。2、降息最佳时间窗口为5月至三季度中期，先考虑50bp幅度，更多降息仍需数据支持。就业紧绷程度下降，非常接近疫情前的高位水平，上半年就业尚可。宏观上，消费的迅速恢复与就业市场固有的缓慢复苏特征是造成去年至今劳动力市场紧绷的主要原因。当前，岗位空缺数与非农就业总和仍显著高于劳动力供给，预计上半年就业仍旧尚可。但注意到岗位空缺数下降趋势不变，就业紧绷程度已非常接近疫情前的高位水平，预示着疫情后期非正常的劳动力供给不平衡状态接近结束。我们以岗位空缺数与非农就业总和作为衡量劳动力市场的需求方，以劳动力人数作为供给方，需求占供给的比例已从疫情后期的高点103.68%降至101.64%，非常接近疫情前的高点100.91%。（疫情前2019~2020年2月，美国劳动力市场处于历史上较为紧绷的时期），短期仍难以下降至合理范围。分行业看，部分行业岗位空缺数已显著低于疫情前，如贸易运输和能源（85%）、零售（74%），仍显著高于疫情前的有医疗保健（162%）、制造业（155%）和建筑业（137%）（图8）。受基建项目支持，建筑业岗位需求旺盛，推断短期内建筑业投资仍旧稳健。目前劳动力市场紧绷主要集中于恢复较慢的服务业人群和受政策影响的建筑业。就业人��下降，非农上升，两者差距继续走阔。劳动参与率和就业率双双回落至上一个平台。分年龄看，35-44岁参与率继续上扬，但其他年龄层有所下降（图3）。虽然非农就业上升，但就业人人下降，说明兼职人数有所增加，高通胀对实际购买力或有持续影响。医疗、政府继续高位增长，与上月特征相仿，专业与商业继续低迷。2月就业主要集中于医疗保健（6.7万）、政府（5.2万）、餐饮（4.2万）、社会支持（2.4万），建筑（2.3万）、运输和仓储（2万），零售（1.9万），其余行业就业变化不大。基建法案效果显著，建筑2.3万基本由非房地产贡献，比如重型和城市工程建设1.25万，非民宅特别贸易合同0.74万等。专业与商业服务（0.9万）的低速增长延续了前几个月的特征，即专业、科学技术服务继续增长1.6万，就业下降主要来自临时帮助服务-1.54万。其他方面，信息业连续3个月就业不再收缩，或预示疫情后的行业回落暂告一段落；此外，制造业就业继续低迷（-0.4万），非耐用品仍处于趋势性回落中（-0.6万），耐用品基本不变（0.2万）。时薪（或周薪）同比需降至4%以下才可看到通胀压力实际下降，需至少一个季度才能确定不会反弹。在前期基数较高的基础上，时薪同比仍能达到4%以上是劳动力市场较为紧绷的佐证之一。2月时薪同比虽然继续回落，但仍有4.5%。时薪回落主要由中高收入带动，中低收入变化不大。横向比较，4%属于正常经济周期的高位，特别是CPI同比低于时薪同比的情况下。我们关于降息时间点的观点基本印证，即最早不会早于5月。近期鲍威尔表示降息临近，目前的政策利率水平明显高于中性利率水平。我们在2020年疫情开始后就提出，随着地产周期复苏，中性利率可能有所抬升，即目前的政策利率水平虽处于限制性区域，但可能离中性利率并不太远。降息方面，我们认为，劳动力市场虽有所缓和但仍处于紧绷状态，过早降息可能会引起后期通胀的反弹。今年先考虑降息50bp以缓和高利率对经济的限制，更多的降息仍需观察。此外，最佳的降息窗口在二季度末三季度初。由于美国是消费主导的经济体，三四季度为传统消费旺季，若一二季度不出现衰退，则大概率三四季度经济表现尚可。因此，若三四季度消费尚可，则通胀存在反弹压力。降息拖到三季度后期至年尾，可能会遇到通胀下行趋势减弱而经济增速维持一定水平这种不利降息的局面。风险提示：海外通胀超预期，海外经济衰退。', 'content': 'Event: The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 275,000 in February after seasonally adjustment, which was expected to be 200,000. The previous value was revised down from 353,000 to 229,000; the unemployment rate was 3.9%, which was expected to be 3.7%, and the previous value was 3.7%. The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, unchanged. Hourly wages were 4.3% year-on-year, compared with the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.4%. Main points: 1. The employment tightness has declined and is very close to the high level before the epidemic. Employment in the first half of the year is acceptable. 2. The best time window for interest rate cuts is from May to the middle of the third quarter. Consider the 50bp range first. More interest rate cuts still need data support. The employment tightness has declined and is very close to the high level before the epidemic. Employment in the first half of the year is acceptable. From a macro perspective, the rapid recovery of consumption and the inherent slow recovery characteristics of the job market are the main reasons for the tight labor market since last year. Currently, the total number of job vacancies and non-agricultural employment is still significantly higher than the labor supply, and employment is expected to remain acceptable in the first half of the year. However, it is noted that the downward trend in the number of job vacancies remains unchanged, and the employment tightness is very close to the high level before the epidemic, indicating that the abnormal labor supply imbalance in the late period of the epidemic is approaching an end. We measure the demand side of the labor market by the number of job vacancies and the total number of non-agricultural employment, and the supply side by the number of laborers. The proportion of demand to supply has dropped from the high point of 103.68% in the late period of the epidemic to 101.64%, which is very close to the high point before the epidemic. Points 100.91%. (Before the epidemic, from 2019 to February 2020, the U.S. labor market was in a relatively tight period in history), and it is still difficult to fall to a reasonable range in the short term. In terms of industries, the number of job vacancies in some industries has been significantly lower than before the epidemic, such as trade, transportation and energy (85%), and retail (74%). It is still significantly higher than before the epidemic, such as health care (162%) and manufacturing. (155%) and construction (137%) (Figure 8). Supported by infrastructure projects, the demand for jobs in the construction industry is strong, and it is inferred that investment in the construction industry will remain solid in the short term. The current tightening of the labor market is mainly concentrated in the service industry, which is slow to recover, and the construction industry, which is affected by policies. The number of employed persons has declined, while non-agricultural employment has increased, and the gap between the two continues to widen. Both the labor force participation rate and the employment rate fell back to the previous level. Looking at age groups, the participation rate for those aged 35-44 continues to rise, but for other age groups it has declined (Figure 3). Although non-agricultural employment increased, the number of employed persons decreased, indicating that the number of part-time workers has increased, and high inflation may have a continued impact on real purchasing power. Medical care and government continued to grow at a high level, similar to the characteristics of last month, while professional and business continued to be sluggish. Employment in February was mainly concentrated in health care (67,000), government (52,000), catering (42,000), social support (24,000), construction (23,000), transportation and warehousing (20,000), and retail (19,000) ), employment in other industries has not changed much. The infrastructure bill has a significant effect. The construction bill of 23,000 is basically contributed by non-real estate, such as heavy and urban engineering construction of 12,500, and non-residential special trade contracts of 7,400. The slow growth in professional and business services (09,000) continued the characteristics of previous months, that is, professional, scientific and technical services continued to increase by 16,000, and the employment decline mainly came from temporary help services -15,400. In other respects, employment in the information industry has not shrunk for three consecutive months, which may indicate that the industry decline after the epidemic has come to an end; in addition, manufacturing employment continues to be sluggish (-0.4 million), and non-durable goods are still in a trend decline (-0.6 million), durable goods remained basically unchanged (0.2 million). Hourly wages (or weekly wages) need to fall below 4% year-on-year to see inflationary pressure actually decline, and it will take at least one quarter to be sure it will not rebound. On the basis of a high base in the early stage, hourly wages can still reach more than 4% year-on-year, which is one of the evidences of the tight labor market. Although hourly wages continued to fall year-on-year in February, they were still 4.5%. The fall in hourly wages was mainly driven by middle and high incomes, with little change in low and middle incomes. In horizontal comparison, 4% is a high level in the normal economic cycle, especially when the year-on-year CPI is lower than the year-on-year hourly wage. Our view on the timing of interest rate cuts is basically confirmed, that is, it will not be earlier than May at the earliest. Powell recently stated that a rate cut is imminent, and the current policy interest rate level is significantly higher than the neutral interest rate level. We proposed after the start of the epidemic in 2020 that as the real estate cycle recovers, the neutral interest rate may rise. That is, although the current policy interest rate level is in a restrictive area, it may not be too far from the neutral interest rate. In terms of interest rate cuts, we believe that although the labor market has eased, it is still in a tight state, and cutting interest rates too early may cause a rebound in inflation in the later period. This year, we will first consider cutting interest rates by 50bp to ease the constraints of high interest rates on the economy. More interest rate cuts still need to be observed. In addition, the best window for interest rate cuts is at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter. Since the United States is a consumption-led economy, the third and fourth quarters are the traditional peak consumption seasons. If there is no recession in the first and second quarters, there is a high probability that the economic performance in the third and fourth quarters will be acceptable. Therefore, if consumption is acceptable in the third and fourth quarters, there will be pressure for inflation to rebound. If the interest rate cut is delayed until the late third quarter to the end of the year, the downward trend in inflation may weaken while economic growth maintains a certain level, which is an unfavorable situation for interest rate cuts. Risk warning: Overseas inflation exceeds expectations and overseas economies decline.', 'authorid': UUID('3f2797dd-6eba-5070-8041-b1ca733a1529'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9599061850458384, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'V9E4LLEJJMVDKNG80GJBUKJA63VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:26 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'V9E4LLEJJMVDKNG80GJBUKJA63VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('907f9864-062a-5558-8627-c3981782f993'), 'title': 'Comments on import and export data from January to February 2024: The base effect is superimposed on the resilience of external demand, and export growth exceeds expectations.', 'author': 'Yuan Haixia, Zhang Lin, Shi Miao', 'orgName': '中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80002154', 'orgSName': '中诚信国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEHmDhQ54lYFp6POyFzCV4xI=', 'researcher': '袁海霞,张林,石淼', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000241949', '11000270239', '11000450331'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEHmDhQ54lYFp6POyFzCV4xI=', 'site': 'China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中诚信国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626601608_1.pdf?1710327946000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626601608_1.pdf?1710327946000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on import and export data from January to February 2024: The base effect is superimposed on the resilience of external demand, and export growth exceeds expectations.', 'originalAuthor': '袁海霞,张林,石淼', 'originalContent': '低基数叠加外需韧性，出口增速超出预期。1-2月出口同比增长7.1%，较去年末（2023年12月）提升4.8个百分点，预期为2.7%。出口增速超预期主要受以下因素影响，一是全球半导体销售上行周期对我国机电产品出口形成支撑；二是美国进入补库周期带来需求的额外增量；三是东盟及美国等经济仍有韧性带动出口数量改善。从环比来看，1-2月环比回落-9.8%，强于2014-2023年-20.4%的均值水平。海外经济基本面延续分化，我国对东盟、美国出口由负转正，对欧盟出口降幅显著。美国经济依然较为强劲，2023年四季度美国GDP环比折年率为3.3%，2024年1-2月新增非农业就业人数依然处于较高水平，而欧元区GDP仍在零增长附近徘徊，经济增长乏力，俄乌冲突持续扰动欧洲政治与经济运行。2月全球主要经济体制造业PMI均有不同程度上涨，摩根大通全球制造业PMI连续两月小幅回升至50.3%，重返荣枯线以上，其中2月份美国制造业PMI为52.2%，较上月回升1.5个百分点，欧元区和日本制造业景气度边际改善但仍偏弱，PMI指数位于荣枯线以下。总体上看，美国经济韧性较强对于我国外需起到了一定支撑作用。1月与2月中国PMI新出口订单分别为46.7%、46.4%，略高于2023年12月，表明制造业出口需求有所上涨。与海外经济体的基本面及制造业景气度运行一致，1-2月我国对东盟、美国出口增速均较前期显著上涨，对欧盟、日本的出口降幅进一步扩大。具体来看，1-2月，对东盟、美国出口由负转正，同比增速为6%、5%，较前值分别增长11、18.1个百分点，东盟仍是我国第一大贸易伙伴；对日本和韩国出口增速分别为-9.7%和-9.9%，分别较前值下降1.2、3.7个百分点；对欧盟出口降幅收窄8.9个百分点至-1.3%。对巴西、越南、印度、俄罗斯、非洲等国家和地区而出口增速分别为33.8%、24.1%、12.8%、12.5%、21%。机电产品、高新技术产品、劳动密集型产品为主要贡献项，增速均有所回升。从出口产品来看，机电产品、高新技术产品、劳动密集型产品出口回升。机电产品出口同比上升8.5%，较前值回升8.2个百分点，连续三个月正增长；高新技术产品同比上升0.2%，较前值上升1.2个百分点；劳动密集型产品出口同比上升22.2%，增长势头显著好于市场预期。其中，主要受全球半导体周期上行影响，机电产品出口增速较快，电子产业链相关的集成电路、电脑、音视频设备出口增速分别回升21.7、7.0、8.0个百分点至24.3%、3.9%、13.4%，其他机电产品出口增速回升7.2个百分点至1.6%。此外，高技术产品相关的船舶出口同比较前值上涨144.5个百分点至173.1%；汽车及汽车零件出口同比延续较快增长，同比增速分别为12.6%、16.2%，汽车产业链在去年全年高技术的影响下，出口优势延续。手机出口下降18.2%，降幅有所扩大，但出口数量增长12.8%，出口下滑主要受到价格下跌影响。从劳动密集型产品来看，1-2月延续去年12月的复苏态势，其中，���具较上月上涨23.7个百分点至36.1%；塑料、箱包、纺织品同比增速均提升至两位数，分别为22.9%、24.1%、15.5%；服装、鞋靴、玩具由降转增，增速分别为13.1%、14.4%、15.9%.进口增速超预期，电子产品、铁矿砂、原油等大宗商品表现较好，其中主要是数量因素贡献。受去年同期基数较低叠加铁矿砂、原油等大宗商品进口量明显增加的影响，1-2月进口增速表现较好，同比增长3.5%。从重点进口商品来看，高新技术产品进口金额同比上升10.5个百分点至11.9%，机电产品上升5.5个百分点至7.7%，农产品上涨0.4个百分点至-6.5%。受全球半导体销售周期上行，尤其是我国消费电子相关产品出口增加的影响，1-2月我国集成电路等电子产业链进口增速明显回升。其中，集成电路、二极管及类似半导体器件、电脑及零配件进口增速分别回升18.7、22.9、39.9个百分点至15.3%、5.0%、67.3%；煤、肥料量价齐跌，进口金额增速较上月分别回落28.5、23个百分点至-5.1%、-4%，进口数量同比较上月分别回落30.1、46.5个百分点至22.9%、62%；铁矿砂进口增速大幅下降至22.8%，较上月回落25.81个百分点；大豆进口增速持续下降至-22.2%，较上月扩大3.15个百分点。基数效应与海外需求韧性或支撑出口保持正增长，但出口增速回升的可持续性仍需观察，稳外贸、稳外资与扩大高水平对外开放仍需落到实处。低基数效应叠加海外需求仍有韧性，1-2月出口增速超预期，低基数下2024年全年出口增速或将保持正增长。后续看，一方面欧美等主要经济体的高通胀情况得到抑制，特别是欧洲经济相对疲软，或率先进入降息通道，全球经济存在企稳空间，我国出口面临的外需压力或边际好转。另一方面，外贸领域“保稳提质”政策延续出台，出口结构不断优化，或对出口增速形成一定支撑。进口方面，万亿国债落地形成实物工作量会带动相关商品需求，内需后续或会延续企稳，进口增速维持稳定也有支撑，但内需修复的幅度依然需要观察。2024年政府工作报告在扩大高水平对外开放方面做出具体部署，包括促进跨境电商等新业态健康发展，优化海外仓布局，支持加工贸易提档升级，拓展中间品贸易、绿色贸易等，这些措施将持续支撑我国货物与服务出口“保稳提质”。此外，政府工作报告也提出扩大鼓励外商投资目录，鼓励外资企业境内再投资，推动高质量共建“一带一路”走深走实，深化多双边和区域经济合作等措施，在稳外资方面也将持续市场政策效应。', 'content': '低基数叠加外需韧性，出口增速超出预期。1-2月出口同比增长7.1%，较去年末（2023年12月）提升4.8个百分点，预期为2.7%。出口增速超预期主要受以下因素影响，一是全球半导体销售上行周期对我国机电产品出口形成支撑；二是美国进入补库周期带来需求的额外增量；三是东盟及美国等经济仍有韧性带动出口数量改善。从环比来看，1-2月环比回落-9.8%，强于2014-2023年-20.4%的均值水平。海外经济基本面延续分化，我国对东盟、美国出口由负转正，对欧盟出口降幅显著。美国经济依然较为强劲，2023年四季度美国GDP环比折年率为3.3%，2024年1-2月新增非农业就业人数依然处于较高水平，而欧元区GDP仍在零增长附近徘徊，经济增长乏力，俄乌冲突持续扰动欧洲政治与经济运行。2月全球主要经济体制造业PMI均有不同程度上涨，摩根大通全球制造业PMI连续两月小幅回升至50.3%，重返荣枯线以上，其中2月份美国制造业PMI为52.2%，较上月回升1.5个百分点，欧元区和日本制造业景气度边际改善但仍偏弱，PMI指数位于荣枯线以下。总体上看，美国经济韧性较强对于我国外需起到了一定支撑作用。1月与2月中国PMI新出口订单分别为46.7%、46.4%，略高于2023年12月，表明制造业出口需求有所上涨。与海外经济体的基本面及制造业景气度运行一致，1-2月我国对东盟、美国出口增速均较前期显著上涨，对欧盟、日本的出口降幅进一步扩大。具体来看，1-2月，对东盟、美国出口由负转正，同比增速为6%、5%，较前值分别增长11、18.1个百分点，东盟仍是我国第一大贸易伙伴；对日本和韩国出口增速分别为-9.7%和-9.9%，分别较前值下降1.2、3.7个百分点；对欧盟出口降幅收窄8.9个百分点至-1.3%。对巴西、越南、印度、俄罗斯、非洲等国家和地区而出口增速分别为33.8%、24.1%、12.8%、12.5%、21%。机电产品、高新技术产品、劳动密集型产品为主要贡献项，增速均有所回升。从出口产品来看，机电产品、高新技术产品、劳动密集型产品出口回升。机电产品出口同比上升8.5%，较前��回升8.2个百分点，连续三个月正增长；高新技术产品同比上升0.2%，较前值上升1.2个百分点；劳动密集型产品出口同比上升22.2%，增长势头显著好于市场预期。其中，主要受全球半导体周期上行影响，机电产品出口增速较快，电子产业链相关的集成电路、电脑、音视频设备出口增速分别回升21.7、7.0、8.0个百分点至24.3%、3.9%、13.4%，其他机电产品出口增速回升7.2个百分点至1.6%。此外，高技术产品相关的船舶出口同比较前值上涨144.5个百分点至173.1%；汽车及汽车零件出口同比延续较快增长，同比增速分别为12.6%、16.2%，汽车产业链在去年全年高技术的影响下，出口优势延续。手机出口下降18.2%，降幅有所扩大，但出口数量增长12.8%，出口下滑主要受到价格下跌影响。从劳动密集型产品来看，1-2月延续去年12月的复苏态势，其中，家具较上月上涨23.7个百分点至36.1%；塑料、箱包、纺织品同比增速均提升至两位数，分别为22.9%、24.1%、15.5%；服装、鞋靴、玩具由降转增，增速分别为13.1%、14.4%、15.9%.进口增速超预期，电子产品、铁矿砂、原油等大宗商品表现较好，其中主要是数量因素贡献。受去年同期基数较低叠加铁矿砂、原油等大宗商品进口量明显增加的影响，1-2月进口增速表现较好，同比增长3.5%。从重点进口商品来看，高新技术产品进口金额同比上升10.5个百分点至11.9%，机电产品上升5.5个百分点至7.7%，农产品上涨0.4个百分点至-6.5%。受全球半导体销售周期上行，尤其是我国消费电子相关产品出口增加的影响，1-2月我国集成电路等电子产业链进口增速明显回升。其中，集成电路、二极管及类似半导体器件、电脑及零配件进口增速分别回升18.7、22.9、39.9个百分点至15.3%、5.0%、67.3%；煤、肥料量价齐跌，进口金额增速较上月分别回落28.5、23个百分点至-5.1%、-4%，进口数量同比较上月分别回落30.1、46.5个百分点至22.9%、62%；铁矿砂进口增速大幅下降至22.8%，较上月回落25.81个百分点；大豆进口增速持续下降至-22.2%，较上月扩大3.15个百分点。基数效应与海外需求韧性或支撑出口保持正增长，但出口增速回升的可持续性仍需观察，稳外贸、稳外资与扩大高水平对外开放仍需落到实处。低基数效应叠加海外需求仍有韧性，1-2月出口增速超预期，低基数下2024年全年出口增速或将保持正增长。后续看，一方面欧美等主要经济体的高通胀情况得到抑制，特别是欧洲经济相对疲软，或率先进入降息通道，全球经济存在企稳空间，我国出口面临的外需压力或边际好转。另一方面，外贸领域“保稳提质”政策延续出台，出口结构不断优化，或对出口增速形成一定支撑。进口方面，万亿国债落地形成实物工作量会带动相关商品需求，内需后续或会延续企稳，进口增速维持稳定也有支撑，但内需修复的幅度依然需要观察。2024年政府工作报告在扩大高水平对外开放方面做出具体部署，包括促进跨境电商等新业态健康发展，优化海外仓布局，支持加工贸易提档升级，拓展中间品贸易、绿色贸易等，这些措施将持续支撑我国货物与服务出口“保稳提质”。此外，政府工作报告也提出扩大鼓励外商投资目录，鼓励外资企业境内再投资，推动高质量共建“一带一路”走深走实，深化多双边和区域经济合作等措施，在稳外资方面也将持续市场政策效应。', 'authorid': UUID('dbe8a134-a365-56c2-8da6-f20d15300a37'), 'sentimentScore': 0.005714572966098785, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'DJNC7OLV5UQVIDHO3SORUS6APRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:30 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'DJNC7OLV5UQVIDHO3SORUS6APRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d2235d4f-96a4-5e3c-943c-c456c3ddb0ff'), 'title': 'Commentary on US February CPI data: the “last mile” of de-inflation', 'author': 'Yan Xiang, Xu Ruchun', 'orgName': '华福证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000065', 'orgSName': '华福证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEOLT+FRkn0u2g38GOBDG6w4=', 'researcher': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000223033', '11000339132'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEOLT+FRkn0u2g38GOBDG6w4=', 'site': 'Huafu Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华福证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626573617_1.pdf?1710323697000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626573617_1.pdf?1710323697000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on US February CPI data: the “last mile” of de-inflation', 'originalAuthor': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'originalContent': '事件：2月CPI同比3.2%，预期和前值均为3.1%；季调后CPI环比0.4%，预期0.4%，前值0.3%；核心CPI同比3.8%，预期3.7%，前值3.9%；核心CPI环比0.4%，预期0.3%，前值0.4%。投资要点：能源反弹+核心服务韧性较强，2月美国CPI同比回升且略超市场预期：2月美国CPI同比3.2%、核心CPI同比3.8%，均比预期值高0.1pct。1月底以来国际油价重回80美元关口，市场对2月美国CPI回升已有一定预期，但最后读数仍略偏高，反映美国通胀的韧性仍然相对较强。分项看，食品项环比明显回落（0.4%→0.0%），带动食品项同比（2.2%）降至2022年8月以来的新低；能源项大幅反弹（-0.9%→2.3%），主要源于1月以来国际油价温和上行，对2月美国CPI环比回升构成主要贡献；核心商品环比再度转正（-0.3%→0.1%），其中服装、运输产品（新车和二手车）、医疗护理贡献较大；核心服务环比略有回落（0.7%→0.5%），其中住房租金项环比虽然略有回落（0.6%→0.4%）但仍然构成主要贡献。往后看，对于美联储而言，去通胀的“最后一英里”仍然充满挑战，离2%目标仍有一定距离：无论是按0.3%还是0.2%的环比假设计算，后续美国CPI大概率继续回落，到8月降至2.4%-2.5%区间，离美联储2%目标尚有一定距离，且不排除有反弹风险。其原因在于现阶段美国经济尤其是服务业韧性较强，11月以来金融条件放松带动股市、房地产等各类资产再度上涨，对居民消费构成支撑。市场已计算入6月开启降息、全年降息100BP预期，但后续若通胀回落偏慢，意味着降息节点可能继续后延：通胀数据公布后，CME利率期货显示市场仍预期6月开启降息，但全年降息幅度降至75BP。过去8轮降息开启的节点，美国经济已处于持续下行中，非农就业、PMI降幅明显，通胀短期或仍在相对高位。因此美联储不需要等到通胀降到2%才开始降息，但需要看到经济有明显冷却迹象，尤其是PMI、非农就业等大幅度转冷，目前看仍然需要等待。而后续若通胀降幅低于预期，不排除降息节点继续后延，推迟到7月或更往后的9月。流动性宽松交易短期或面临一定阻碍，重点关注下周FOMC会议：数据公布后，10年期美债利率上行7BP、美元指数重新回到103以上，但美股反而上涨，或源于此前2个交易日已有一定回撤。但往后看，美债利率的趋势性下行仍需等待，美股短期或阶段性面临压力，重点关注下周FOMC会议。风险提示：一是美联储表态偏鹰；二是美国通胀下行偏慢。', 'content': 'Event: CPI in February was 3.2% year-on-year, with expectations and previous values \\u200b\\u200bof 3.1%; seasonally adjusted CPI was 0.4% month-on-month, with expectations of 0.4%, and previous values \\u200b\\u200bof 0.3%; core CPI was 3.8% year-on-year, with expectations of 3.7%, and previous values \\u200b\\u200bof 3.9%; Core CPI was 0.4% month-on-month, compared with the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.4%. Investment points: energy rebound + core services are highly resilient. U.S. CPI rebounded year-on-year in February and slightly exceeded market expectations: U.S. CPI in February was 3.2% year-on-year and core CPI was 3.8% year-on-year, both 0.1pct higher than expected. Since the end of January, international oil prices have returned to the $80 mark, and the market has certain expectations for a rebound in U.S. CPI in February. However, the final reading is still slightly higher, reflecting that the resilience of U.S. inflation is still relatively strong. In terms of items, the food item dropped significantly month-on-month (0.4%→0.0%), driving the food item year-on-year (2.2%) to a new low since August 2022; the energy item rebounded sharply (-0.9%→2.3%), mainly due to Since January, international oil prices have risen moderately, which has constituted a major contribution to the month-on-month rebound in U.S. CPI in February; core commodities have turned positive again month-on-month (-0.3% → 0.1%), among which clothing, transportation products (new and used cars), and medical care have contributed more. Large; core services fell slightly month-on-month (0.7% → 0.5%). Although housing rental items fell slightly month-on-month (0.6% → 0.4%), they still constituted the main contribution. Looking forward, for the Federal Reserve, the \"last mile\" of de-inflation is still full of challenges, and there is still a certain distance from the 2% target: whether calculated based on the 0.3% or 0.2% month-on-month assumption, there is a high probability that the US CPI will continue to fall in the future. , dropped to the range of 2.4%-2.5% by August, which is still a certain distance from the Fed’s 2% target, and the risk of rebound cannot be ruled out. The reason is that the U.S. economy, especially the service industry, is highly resilient at this stage. Since November, the easing of financial conditions has driven the stock market, real estate and other assets to rise again, supporting household consumption. The market has already calculated in expectations that interest rates will be cut in June and that interest rates will be cut by 100 BP throughout the year. However, if inflation falls slowly in the future, it means that the interest rate cut node may continue to be postponed: After the release of inflation data, CME interest rate futures showed that the market still expected that interest rates would be cut in June, but The full-year interest rate cut was reduced to 75BP. At the point when the past eight rounds of interest rate cuts began, the U.S. economy has been in a continuous decline, non-farm employment and PMI have dropped significantly, and inflation may remain relatively high in the short term. Therefore, the Fed does not need to wait until inflation drops to 2% before starting to cut interest rates, but it does need to see obvious signs of cooling in the economy, especially PMI and non-farm employment, which have turned sharply colder. At present, it still needs to wait. If the subsequent inflation decline is lower than expected, it is not ruled out that the interest rate cut point will be postponed to July or later to September. The liquidity easing transaction may face certain obstacles in the short term, and the focus will be on next week\\'s FOMC meeting: After the data was released, the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate rose by 7BP, and the U.S. dollar index returned to above 103. However, U.S. stocks rose instead, perhaps due to the two previous transactions. There has been a certain retracement on the day. But looking forward, we still have to wait for the downward trend in U.S. bond interest rates. U.S. stocks will face short-term or periodic pressures, and we will focus on next week\\'s FOMC meeting. Risk warning: First, the Fed\\'s stance is hawkish; second, U.S. inflation is declining slowly.', 'authorid': UUID('91584e59-c8cd-5c63-a616-39b00d7419c0'), 'sentimentScore': 0.5826840177178383, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'IIPD91O3V7NID1OD9A6US575B7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:33 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'IIPD91O3V7NID1OD9A6US575B7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('da66bbb8-d14d-5426-a299-1be1cf980369'), 'title': 'Interpretation of relevant content of the 2024 Government Work Report on the optional consumer industry: [Policy Interpretation] Expand domestic demand, optimize structure, and boost confidence', 'author': 'Xiao Huaiyu, Ning Lijie', 'orgName': '联合资信评估股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80002172', 'orgSName': '联合资信', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEDmR7a6h7VdTc8CS2E3elbo=', 'researcher': '肖怀玉,宁立杰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000432843', '11000432841'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEDmR7a6h7VdTc8CS2E3elbo=', 'site': 'United Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '联合资信', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626566897_1.pdf?1710321672000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626566897_1.pdf?1710321672000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of relevant content of the 2024 Government Work Report on the optional consumer industry: [Policy Interpretation] Expand domestic demand, optimize structure, and boost confidence', 'originalAuthor': '肖怀玉,宁立杰', 'originalContent': '【摘要】2023年以来，各地各部门围绕促进汽车、家居、品牌消费和餐饮业高质量发展等，推动出台支持恢复和扩大消费的系列政策措施。随着扩内需和促消费政策的落地见效，我国服务消费市场持续向好，线下消费潜力不断释放。为实现经济稳步回升的目标，《2024年政府工作报告》提出了一系列发掘消费潜力、调整消费结构、优化消费环境、推动外贸发展等方面的工作任务，这也体现了消费在支撑国民经济回升、拉动经济增长的重要性。2023年促消费政策发力，居民消费有所回暖《政府工作报告》（以下简称“《报告》”）在回顾2023年度工作中提及“围绕扩大内需、优化结构、提振信心、防范化解风险，延续优化一批阶段性政策，及时推出一批新政策，打出有力有效的政策组合拳”“出台支持汽车、家居、电子产品、旅游等消费政策，大宗消费稳步回升，生活服务消费加快恢复。”2023年，促消费政策不断，居民消费持续回暖。各地各部门围绕促进汽车、家居、品牌消费和餐饮业高质量发展等，推动出台支持恢复和扩大消费的系列政策措施，并举办一系列活动，居民线下活动恢复，居民消费对经济贡献有所提升。为促进消费复苏，国务院办公厅转发国家发展改革委《关于恢复和扩大消费措施的通知》，把恢复和扩大消费摆在优先位置，从稳定大宗消费、扩大服务消费、促进农村消费、拓展新型消费、完善消费设施、优化消费环境等方面提出针对性举措，进一步释放消费潜力。2023年7月12日，商务部等13部门发布《关于促进家居消费若干措施的通知》，从提升供给质量、创新消费场景、改善消费条件、优化消费环境等方面提出多项政策举措，并推动业态模式创新发展。', 'content': '[Abstract] Since 2023, various localities and departments have promoted the introduction of a series of policies and measures to support the recovery and expansion of consumption, focusing on promoting the high-quality development of automobiles, home furnishings, brand consumption and catering industries. With the implementation of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, my country\\'s service consumption market continues to improve, and offline consumption potential continues to be released. In order to achieve the goal of steady economic recovery, the \"2024 Government Work Report\" proposed a series of tasks in terms of exploring consumption potential, adjusting consumption structure, optimizing the consumption environment, and promoting foreign trade development. This also reflects the role of consumption in supporting the recovery of the national economy. , the importance of stimulating economic growth. In 2023, policies to promote consumption will be implemented, and household consumption will pick up. The \"Government Work Report\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Report\") mentioned in reviewing the work in 2023 that \"focusing on expanding domestic demand, optimizing structure, boosting confidence, preventing and defusing risks\" , continue to optimize a number of phased policies, launch a number of new policies in a timely manner, and create a powerful and effective policy combination. \"Policies to support consumption of automobiles, home furnishings, electronic products, tourism, etc. have been introduced. Bulk consumption has steadily rebounded, and consumption of daily services has accelerated. \"In 2023, policies to promote consumption will continue, and household consumption will continue to pick up. Various localities and departments have promoted the introduction of a series of policies and measures to support the recovery and expansion of consumption, focusing on promoting the high-quality development of automobiles, home furnishings, brand consumption and catering industries, and organized a series of activities. Residents\\' offline activities have resumed, and residents\\' consumption has contributed to the economy. promote. In order to promote the recovery of consumption, the General Office of the State Council forwarded the National Development and Reform Commission\\'s \"Notice on Measures to Restore and Expand Consumption\", giving priority to the restoration and expansion of consumption, starting from stabilizing bulk consumption, expanding service consumption, promoting rural consumption, and expanding new consumption Propose targeted measures in terms of improving consumption facilities and optimizing the consumption environment to further release consumption potential. On July 12, 2023, 13 departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued the \"Notice on Several Measures to Promote Home Consumption\", proposing a number of policy measures from aspects such as improving supply quality, innovating consumption scenarios, improving consumption conditions, and optimizing the consumption environment, and promoted Innovative development of business models.', 'authorid': UUID('4bfb4f47-d508-5491-9af3-13b96f082bc9'), 'sentimentScore': 0.926056919619441, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '718UCVDDJD3VQV92MKE60RO9PVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:36 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '718UCVDDJD3VQV92MKE60RO9PVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a0c049d9-04af-5b30-a8b7-3c83fcbd31fe'), 'title': 'Comments on U.S. CPI in February: Inflation level has rebounded slightly, but the impact on the timing of interest rate cuts in 2024 may be limited', 'author': 'He Ning, Pan Weizhen', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEBNVzt/LXrpzmK704eMqKJc=', 'researcher': '何宁,潘纬桢', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332', '11000416632'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEBNVzt/LXrpzmK704eMqKJc=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626538208_1.pdf?1710320350000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626538208_1.pdf?1710320350000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on U.S. CPI in February: Inflation level has rebounded slightly, but the impact on the timing of interest rate cuts in 2024 may be limited', 'originalAuthor': '何宁,潘纬桢', 'originalContent': '事件：美国公布2月最新通胀数据。其中CPI同比上升3.2%，略超过市场预期，环比上升0.4%；核心CPI同比上升3.8%，环比上升0.4%，均略超过市场预期。通胀水平略超预期反弹，去通胀之路“前路仍漫漫”1.总体通胀略超预期反弹，核心通胀略有下行。美国2月CPI同比上升3.2%，略超过市场预期。环比增速较1月上涨0.1个百分点至0.4%。核心CPI同比上涨3.8%，环比上升0.4%。总的来看，美国去通胀进程中短期内或处于“攻坚期”，当前通胀水平虽然正在向着美联储的目标前行，但所需时长或仍存在较多的不确定性。2.分项看，能源通胀降幅收窄，核心通胀缓慢下行。具体而言，2月能源项同比下降1.9%，跌幅较1月份收窄2.7个百分点；食品方面，2月份食品项同比上升2.2%，较1月份下降0.4个百分点，连续19个月下降；核心CPI方面，2月核心CPI同比上升3.8%，环比上升0.4%。同比与环比增速分别较1月下降0.1个百分点、持平。房租通胀2月录得较大幅度放缓。3.去通胀进程仍在持续中，但“前路仍漫漫”。2月的通胀数据显示美国去通胀进程存在着一定的“波动性”，目前仍在“攻坚期”。虽然去通胀进度较慢，但我们认为美国去通胀进程仍在持续中。往后看，后续通胀水平的下行将更加依靠核心服务的变动，从当前的情况来看，核心服务大概率将继续缓坡下行。我们认为美国去通胀进程整体还在持续，其问题在于本轮去通胀所需时间可能较漫长，且后续货币政策对通胀水平的影响亦需要密切注意。美联储或需更多数据对降息时点进行确定从2月份数据来看，当前通胀进程处于缓坡下行的阶段，虽然距离美联储的目标区间仍存在一定的距离，但结合前期美联储主席鲍威尔表示不需要等到通胀下降至2%才开始放松货币政策，美联储距离对降息有信心已经不远。只要通胀走势符合预期，降息的过程“可以而且将会在今年开始”。因此联储2024年降息是一个大概率事件，当月通胀数据或会对降息时点影响有限，通胀趋势的变动对当前联储的判断才是最重要的。结合2月非农数据来看，美国劳动力市场仍处于再平衡的过程之中，劳动力市场的供需关系亦在逐渐改善，这意味着对通胀水平的支撑力度将会逐渐放缓。综合上述两点来看，本轮美国去通胀进程可能是一个较为长期的过程，但随着去通胀进程的继续，实际利率水平也在提升，我们认为只要去通胀进程不发生大幅波动，美联储或将会更倾向于进行“预防式降息”，以避免经济在具有限制性的利率水平下持续承压。基准条件下，在去通胀进程未发生逆转的情况下，我们仍倾向于认为美联储将会在6月份进行第一次降息，但再后的降息节奏与幅度会相对较灵活，整体幅度也不会很大。不过从中期角度看，美联储的利率水平可能会较大幅度的高于疫情前水平。风险提示：国际局势紧张引发通胀超预期，美国经济超预期衰退。', 'content': 'Event: The United States released the latest inflation data for February. Among them, CPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations, and increased by 0.4% month-on-month; core CPI increased by 3.8% year-on-year, and increased by 0.4% month-on-month, both slightly exceeding market expectations. Inflation rebounded slightly more than expected, and the road to deflation is still long. 1. Overall inflation rebounded slightly more than expected, and core inflation declined slightly. U.S. CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year in February, slightly exceeding market expectations. The month-on-month growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points from January to 0.4%. Core CPI increased by 3.8% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. Generally speaking, the U.S. de-inflation process may be in a \"tough period\" in the short to medium term. Although the current inflation level is moving towards the Fed\\'s goal, there may still be more uncertainty about how long it will take. 2. Looking at the breakdown, the decline in energy inflation narrowed and core inflation slowly declined. Specifically, the energy item fell by 1.9% year-on-year in February, 2.7 percentage points narrower than that in January; in terms of food, the food item increased by 2.2% year-on-year in February, down 0.4 percentage points from January, and has declined for 19 consecutive months; core In terms of CPI, core CPI in February increased by 3.8% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. The year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates respectively decreased by 0.1 percentage points and remained the same as those in January. Rent inflation slowed significantly in February. 3. The de-inflation process is still ongoing, but “the road ahead is still long.” February\\'s inflation data shows that there is a certain degree of \"volatility\" in the United States\\' de-inflation process, which is still in a \"tough period.\" Although the progress of de-inflation is slow, we believe that the de-inflation process in the United States is still ongoing. Looking forward, the subsequent decline in inflation will rely more on changes in core services. Judging from the current situation, there is a high probability that core services will continue to decline slowly. We believe that the overall de-inflation process in the United States is still continuing. The problem is that this round of de-inflation may take a long time, and the impact of subsequent monetary policies on inflation levels also needs to be paid close attention to. The Fed may need more data to determine the timing of interest rate cuts. Judging from February data, the current inflation process is in a gentle downward slope. Although there is still a certain distance from the Fed\\'s target range, combined with the previous Fed Chairman Powell\\'s statement that there is no need to wait until Only when inflation falls to 2% does it begin to loosen monetary policy, and the Fed is not far away from becoming confident in cutting interest rates. As long as inflation moves in line with expectations, the process of cutting interest rates \"can and will begin this year.\" Therefore, the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate cut in 2024 is a high-probability event. The inflation data for that month may have limited impact on the timing of the interest rate cut. Changes in inflation trends are the most important for the current Federal Reserve\\'s judgment. Judging from February\\'s non-agricultural data, the U.S. labor market is still in the process of rebalancing, and the supply and demand relationship in the labor market is gradually improving, which means that the support for inflation will gradually slow down. Based on the above two points, the current round of de-inflation in the United States may be a relatively long-term process. However, as the de-inflation process continues, the real interest rate level is also increasing. We believe that as long as the de-inflation process does not fluctuate significantly, the Federal Reserve may There will be a greater tendency to carry out \"precautionary interest rate cuts\" to avoid continued pressure on the economy at restrictive interest rate levels. Under baseline conditions, if the de-inflation process has not been reversed, we still tend to believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in June, but the pace and magnitude of subsequent interest rate cuts will be relatively flexible, and the overall magnitude will not be Very big. However, from a medium-term perspective, the Fed\\'s interest rate level may be significantly higher than the pre-epidemic level. Risk warning: Tensions in the international situation have triggered higher-than-expected inflation, and the U.S. economy has declined beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('d47cb679-02a6-5e72-a1c5-22a80f95708b'), 'sentimentScore': -0.05355057120323181, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'B74VL6TU7MUF94OUG3M3ML14MRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:39 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'B74VL6TU7MUF94OUG3M3ML14MRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('836d49d5-462c-54f7-acd4-03204308096f'), 'title': 'Macro daily: U.S. CPI slightly exceeded expectations in February', 'author': 'Cai Shaoli, Gao Cong', 'orgName': '华泰期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80055521', 'orgSName': '华泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEOHJWdi9z2QBagpyIiWLYNM=', 'researcher': '蔡劭立,高聪', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000304033', '11000304231'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEOHJWdi9z2QBagpyIiWLYNM=', 'site': 'Huatai Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626537970_1.pdf?1710319546000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626537970_1.pdf?1710319546000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro daily: U.S. CPI slightly exceeded expectations in February', 'originalAuthor': '蔡劭立,高聪', 'originalContent': '策略摘要商品期货：整体中性，关注芳烃系化工（EB、PX、TA）、生猪、贵金属等结构性买入套保机会；铁矿卖出套保；股指期货：逢低买入套保。核心观点市场分析宏观预期有望迎来上修契机。海关总署公布的1-2月进出口数据明显改善，其中去年海外的高库存导致的低出口基数是原因之一，但就算剔除季节性后仍有出口明显改善，分项来看，纺织服装、塑料制品和地产后周期的家电、家具等产品出口继续回升。现阶段核心矛盾在于复工复产进度偏慢，以及2024年后整体债务发行节奏平稳，政策超前发力的迹象不明显。那么去年作为拖累项的出口改善或将成为宏观预期上修的契机，后续还需要警惕地产的拖累风险。全国两会的历史规律：复盘近11年的两会资产样本：A股受益明显，两会后一周和后一月中证1000和中证500表现较强，样本上涨概率在70%左右；商品在两会期间有所承压，两会后逐步企稳修复。美国2月CPI略超预期。美国2月CPI同比增3.2%，较前值增长0.1%，核心CPI同比3.8%，较前值下降0.1%，但核心CPI环比增0.4%，为八个月最大升幅，数据继续凸显通胀韧性。数据公布后，贵金属表现仍具韧性，关注下周美联储是否释放QT转缓信号。节后第三周，商品交投仍清淡。黑色方面，整体消费启动慢，处于低产量低消费的状态，短期仍需警惕调整风险；有色整体受到美元走弱提振，但仍处于季节性累库阶段，下游需求平淡；能源短期受到俄乌冲突导致的炼厂加工量下降以及红海事件的支撑；化工板块芳烃线具有韧性，关注苯乙烯、PX、PTA的机会，2月纺服、塑料制品等出口回升对需求端亦有支撑；农产品方面，关注饲料和养殖板块，生猪目前是供需双弱格局，短期驱动看二次育肥的变量。贵金属方面，美联储沃勒“反扭曲操作”的相关言论带动美联储降息计价触底回升，结合3月议息会议或将讨论放缓QT，贵金属多配窗口重新打开。风险地缘政治风险（能源板块上行风险）；全球经济超预期下行（风险资产下行风险）；美联储超预期收紧（风险资产下行风险）；海外流动性风险冲击（风险资产下行风险）。', 'content': 'Strategy summary: Commodity futures: overall neutral, focusing on structural buying and hedging opportunities such as aromatic chemicals (EB, PX, TA), pigs, precious metals, etc.; iron ore selling for hedging; stock index futures: buying on dips for hedging. The core view of market analysis is that macroeconomic expectations are expected to usher in an opportunity for upward revision. The import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs improved significantly from January to February. Among them, the low export base caused by high overseas inventory last year was one of the reasons. However, even after excluding seasonality, exports still improved significantly. In terms of items, textiles and clothing , plastic products, and exports of home appliances, furniture and other products in the post-real estate cycle continue to rebound. The core contradiction at this stage is that the resumption of work and production is slow, and the overall pace of debt issuance after 2024 is stable, and there are no obvious signs of policy advancement. Then the improvement in exports, which was a drag item last year, may become an opportunity for upward revision of macroeconomic expectations. In the future, we need to be wary of the drag risk of real estate. The historical pattern of the National Two Sessions: Review of asset samples from the Two Sessions in the past 11 years: A-shares benefited significantly, the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 performed strongly one week and one month after the Two Sessions, and the probability of the sample rising was about 70%; commodities rose during the Two Sessions There was some pressure during the period, but it gradually stabilized and recovered after the two sessions. U.S. CPI slightly exceeded expectations in February. The U.S. CPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year in February, an increase of 0.1% from the previous value. The core CPI increased by 3.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous value. However, the core CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, the largest increase in eight months. The data continues to highlight the resilience of inflation. After the data was released, the performance of precious metals remained resilient, and attention will be paid to whether the Federal Reserve releases a signal that QT will slow down next week. In the third week after the holiday, commodity trading remained light. On the black side, overall consumption has started slowly and is in a state of low output and consumption. We still need to be vigilant about adjustment risks in the short term; non-ferrous metals are generally boosted by the weakening of the US dollar, but are still in the seasonal accumulation stage, and downstream demand is flat; energy is affected by Russia and Ukraine in the short term. The decline in refinery processing volume caused by the conflict and the support of the Red Sea incident; the aromatics line of the chemical sector is resilient, focusing on opportunities for styrene, PX, and PTA. The rebound in exports of textiles, clothing, plastic products, etc. in February also supports the demand side; in terms of agricultural products , paying attention to the feed and breeding sectors, pigs are currently in a weak supply and demand situation, and the short-term driver depends on the variables of secondary fattening. In terms of precious metals, Fed Waller\\'s remarks about \"anti-distortion operations\" drove the Fed\\'s interest rate cut pricing to bottom out and rebound. Combined with the March interest rate meeting, which may discuss slowing down QT, the precious metals long-allocation window has reopened. Risks include geopolitical risks (upward risks for the energy sector); unexpected downturns in the global economy (downward risks for risky assets); unexpected tightening by the Federal Reserve (downward risks for risky assets); overseas liquidity risk impacts (downward risks for risky assets).', 'authorid': UUID('1f2a6e53-dc21-5b64-b53e-783c1fe16451'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8924829289317131, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '5A20JR93PB908FGKUPBJRM0AS3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:42 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '5A20JR93PB908FGKUPBJRM0AS3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3379f150-5f4e-55c6-944e-d102b9b7d268'), 'title': 'Macro Research Weekly Report: The two sessions conclude this week, and the short-term market may face adjustments', 'author': 'Xu Ying', 'orgName': '麦高证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80049237', 'orgSName': '麦高证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEISxC3XDMo/U9oOYNNyrHXw=', 'researcher': '徐滢', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000449878'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEISxC3XDMo/U9oOYNNyrHXw=', 'site': 'Mago Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '麦高证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626537111_1.pdf?1710320967000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626537111_1.pdf?1710320967000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Research Weekly Report: The two sessions conclude this week, and the short-term market may face adjustments', 'originalAuthor': '徐滢', 'originalContent': '上周国内主要新闻：1.习近平主席参加江苏代表团时表示要因地制宜发展新质生产力。2.上交所、深交所联合举办量化私募机构交易合规培训。3.证监会主席吴清系统闸释资本市场监管思路，定调监管工作的重点为“两强两严”。4.海关总署发布数据显示，2024年前2个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值6.61万亿元人民币，同比增长8.7%上周国际主要新闻：1.美联储主席绝威尔表示，今年可能适合降息。2.美联储公布福皮书，即12个地方联储编制的经济形势调查报告3.欧洲中央银行决定继续维持三大关键利率不变。4.欧盟委员会5日公布欧盟首个《欧洲国防工业战略》，就加强欧盟国防工业能力明确了长期愿景。5.2024年非洲能源大会开幕，探讨实现非洲能源转型的可持续解决方案。一周市场回顾：上周正值两会召开，沪深两市维持反弹后的震荡走势，沪市表现强于深市，除上证指数收涨外，其他主要指数均下跌。两市成交额明显姜缩，日均交易额再度回落至万亿元之下，北向资金也是一改连续几周的净流入，上周呈现出小幅净流出。总体来看，市场经过连续上涨后，累积了一定的获利盘，短期市场资金有获利了结的需求。上周召开的两会传达了较多的信息，政府工作报告不仅对今年的经济运行目标进行量化，同时还提出，要多出有利于稳预期、稳增长、稳就业的政策，谨慎出台收缩性抑制性举措。强化宏观政策逆周期和路周期调节，继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，加强政策工具创新和协调配合。增强资本市场内在稳定性。另外，在经济主题记者会上，证监会主席吴清系统闸释了资本市场监管思路，定调监管工作的重点为“两强两严”，即“强本强基、严监严管”。综合上述信息，政策导向利于资本市场稳定和发展，市场环境较为积极。同时，政府工作报告还提出，要大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力。新质生产力作为重点题材在���上反复提及，盘中相关概念股持续发酵，成为未来重点关注的方向。随着本周两会闭幕，市场热度将有所降温，资金获利了结的可能性较大，短期市场或将面临调整。风险提示：政策不及预期，国际贸易政策风险，地缘政治冲突风险。', 'content': 'Major domestic news last week: 1. When President Xi Jinping attended the Jiangsu delegation, he expressed the need to develop new productive forces according to local conditions. 2. The Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange jointly organized transaction compliance training for quantitative private equity institutions. 3. Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, explained the capital market supervision ideas and set the focus of supervision work on \"two strong and two strict\". 4. Data released by the General Administration of Customs show that in the first two months of 2024, my country’s total import and export value of goods trade was 6.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. Major international news last week: 1. Federal Reserve Chairman Will Will said that this year may Suitable for interest rate cuts. 2. The Federal Reserve released the Economic Situation Survey Report compiled by 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks. 3. The European Central Bank decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged. 4. The European Commission announced the EU\\'s first \"European Defense Industry Strategy\" on the 5th, clarifying the long-term vision for strengthening the EU\\'s defense industry capabilities. 5. The 2024 African Energy Conference opens to explore sustainable solutions for Africa’s energy transformation. Weekly market review: Last week coincided with the two sessions. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets maintained a volatile trend after rebounding. The Shanghai stock market performed better than the Shenzhen stock market. Except for the Shanghai Composite Index, which closed up, other major indexes fell. The transaction volume of the two cities has shrunk significantly, and the average daily transaction volume has once again fallen below one trillion yuan. Northbound funds have also changed from net inflows for several consecutive weeks, showing a small net outflow last week. Overall, the market has accumulated a certain amount of profits after continuous rises, and there is a demand for short-term market funds to take profits. The two sessions held last week conveyed a lot of information. The government work report not only quantified this year\\'s economic performance targets, but also proposed more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, stabilizing growth, and stabilizing employment, and cautiously introducing contractionary restraints. Sexual initiatives. We will strengthen countercyclical and cyclical adjustments to macroeconomic policies, continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies, and strengthen innovation and coordination of policy tools. Enhance the inherent stability of the capital market. In addition, at the economic-themed press conference, Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, systematically explained the ideas for capital market supervision and set the focus of supervision work as \"two strengths and two strictnesses\", that is, \"strengthening the foundation and strengthening the foundation, strict supervision and strict management.\" Based on the above information, policy guidance is conducive to the stability and development of the capital market, and the market environment is relatively positive. At the same time, the government work report also proposed that we should vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerate the development of new productive forces. New productivity was repeatedly mentioned as a key theme at the meeting, and related concept stocks continued to ferment during the session, becoming a key focus in the future. With the conclusion of the two sessions this week, the market heat will cool down, capital profit-taking is more likely, and the short-term market may face adjustments. Risk warning: policies that fall short of expectations, international trade policy risks, and geopolitical conflict risks.', 'authorid': UUID('a7f043a0-c180-553f-9a30-81d8998aa3b6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.10696574579924345, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KUTB6NKRT4P5J604JQBP0C9A8RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:44 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KUTB6NKRT4P5J604JQBP0C9A8RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8a017a5d-c09b-5c09-96f3-dd21487f2cfd'), 'title': 'The Courage to Act: Lessons from the Liquidity Trap in Developed Countries', 'author': 'Yang Weiqiu, Meng Zijun', 'orgName': '国元证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001043', 'orgSName': '国元证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEFYAxokPzCbHb1CsudpdyD4=', 'researcher': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000176619', '11000337831'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEFYAxokPzCbHb1CsudpdyD4=', 'site': 'Guoyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国元证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626537081_1.pdf?1710318517000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626537081_1.pdf?1710318517000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The Courage to Act: Lessons from the Liquidity Trap in Developed Countries', 'originalAuthor': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'originalContent': '流动性陷阱指的是利率水平的下降无法带来广义货币的派生，即无论央行投放多少流动性，都积蓄在商业银行体系内，无法进入实体，进而无法拉动经济和物价的上涨。流动性陷阱的经典案例是2007-2008年的美国、2008-2014年的欧元区及上世纪90年代的日本，这几个样本的共性是在一次金融系统性风险发酵之后，实体的悲观预期开始浮出水面，并严重干扰了实体融资的积极性。政策上的不谋而合之处是：这三个经济体都在用非常极致的宽松政策试图解决流动性陷阱问题，在流动性陷阱发生前，三个经济体的基准利率都远远高于如今中国的基准利率水平，而在走出流动性陷阱之时，这三个经济体的基准利率都非常接近于0。差异在于：这三个经济体在面对相同的问题时，行动的魄力是不同的:1）美国的行动是最及时迅猛的，在2008年全年时间里，美国的宽松政策迅速让利率从4.25%降到0.25%，于是，那一轮流动性问题没有拖很久，2009年美国就走出了信用收缩的泥潭；2）可能因为欧元区的协调问题，欧元区虽宽松政策来得及时，但利率下调却偏缓慢，直到2013年，欧元区才将自己的基准利率调到0.25%左右，于是，欧元区的信用投放在2014年方才见底；3）日本的问题是，政策的应对就来得很迟，日本经济泡沫破灭始于1990年，但日本首次降息的时间是1991年7月，此间间隔的时间长达一年半左右，此外，日本利率下调的过程也很缓慢，在2001年其基准利率下调到0.1%后，其信用才随后见底。因此，我们也看到了这三个经济体的经济表现的差异：1）美国在2009年经济探底后，迅速走出危机模式，经济回到了韧性状态；2）欧元区在当时虽在美国带动下完成了第一波修复，但又进入了二次衰退后，经济才得以平稳；3）日本经济则经历了十年的衰退过程，在经济增长速度从7.5%左右被拖到负增长之后，日本经济才稳定下来，但此时，日本的经济增长已经习惯性停滞。发达国家的先例所给予的启示如下：1）在发生流动性陷阱时，不要考虑利率的线性，在极端的悲观预期下，利率必须以陡峭的斜率向下，这就是一个非常规化的宽松过程；2）不要考虑凯恩斯主义的问题，从三个国家的先例来看，货币依然有效，大家对货币无效的认知是因为货币宽松的力度慢于预期衰退的速度；3）时间非常宝贵，政策越早决断，经济受伤害的时间就越短，后续经济的恢复也会相应更加容易。在资产配置上，流动性陷阱环境下的唯一占优资产是债券，若流动性陷阱无改观，则即使经济脉冲式上扬，债券市场的反应也极弱。风险提示：地缘政治冲突加剧，美国金融系统危机爆发，国内宏观政策落地不及预期等', 'content': \"The liquidity trap refers to the fact that the decline in interest rates cannot bring about the derivation of broad money. That is, no matter how much liquidity the central bank releases, it is accumulated in the commercial banking system and cannot enter the entity, thereby failing to drive the economy and price increases. The classic cases of liquidity traps are the United States from 2007 to 2008, the Eurozone from 2008 to 2014, and Japan in the 1990s. The commonality of these samples is that after a financial systemic risk fermented, pessimistic expectations of entities began. surfaced and seriously interfered with the entity's enthusiasm for financing. What coincides in policy is that these three economies are using very extreme easing policies to try to solve the liquidity trap problem. Before the liquidity trap occurs, the benchmark interest rates of the three economies are much higher than Today, China’s benchmark interest rates are very close to 0 when they emerge from the liquidity trap. The difference is that when these three economies face the same problem, their courage to act is different: 1) The United States’ actions were the most timely and swift. Throughout 2008, the United States’ easing policy quickly brought interest rates from 4.25% dropped to 0.25%. As a result, that round of liquidity problems did not drag on for long, and the United States emerged from the quagmire of credit contraction in 2009; 2) Perhaps due to coordination problems in the Eurozone, although the Eurozone’s easing policies were timely, the interest rate The downward adjustment was slow. It was not until 2013 that the Eurozone adjusted its benchmark interest rate to around 0.25%. Therefore, the Eurozone’s credit did not bottom out until 2014; 3) Japan’s problem is that the policy response comes very quickly. Lately, Japan's economic bubble burst in 1990, but Japan's first interest rate cut was in July 1991, with an interval of about one and a half years. In addition, Japan's interest rate reduction process was also very slow. In 2001, its benchmark After the interest rate was lowered to 0.1%, its credit subsequently bottomed out. Therefore, we have also seen differences in the economic performance of these three economies: 1) After the economic bottom in 2009, the United States quickly came out of crisis mode and the economy returned to a resilient state; 2) Although the Eurozone was driven by the United States at that time, After completing the first wave of repairs but entering a second recession, the economy stabilized; 3) The Japanese economy experienced a decade of recession. After the economic growth rate was dragged from about 7.5% to negative growth, the Japanese economy It stabilized, but at this time, Japan's economic growth had habitually stagnated. The lessons learned from the precedents of developed countries are as follows: 1) When a liquidity trap occurs, do not consider the linearity of interest rates. Under extreme pessimistic expectations, interest rates must decline at a steep slope. This is an unconventional easing process. ;2) Don’t consider Keynesian issues. Judging from the precedents of the three countries, currency is still effective. Everyone’s perception of currency ineffectiveness is because the intensity of monetary easing is slower than the expected recession; 3) Time is very precious, and policies The earlier the decision is made, the shorter the time for economic damage will be, and the subsequent economic recovery will be correspondingly easier. In terms of asset allocation, the only dominant asset in a liquidity trap environment is bonds. If the liquidity trap does not change, even if the economy rises in a pulse-like manner, the reaction of the bond market will be extremely weak. Risk warning: geopolitical conflicts intensify, the crisis in the US financial system breaks out, and the implementation of domestic macro policies falls short of expectations, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('06a6231a-b667-541e-b1fd-3c96f32864dc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.21031439118087292, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'P96LLL9VJR6D6OLVHK2NKIIF1VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:47 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'P96LLL9VJR6D6OLVHK2NKIIF1VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('4d4f4cb5-767c-5550-a0a5-f00501484e59'), 'title': 'U.S. CPI Commentary (2024.2): Wage inflation transmission has resumed, and the Fed’s “first cut” may be postponed again', 'author': 'Qin Tai', 'orgName': '华金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000134', 'orgSName': '华金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEM3iaNUwGZ1GIg2oJQo/68A=', 'researcher': '秦泰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249937'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEM3iaNUwGZ1GIg2oJQo/68A=', 'site': 'Huajin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626495388_1.pdf?1710317097000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626495388_1.pdf?1710317097000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. CPI Commentary (2024.2): Wage inflation transmission has resumed, and the Fed’s “first cut” may be postponed again', 'originalAuthor': '秦泰', 'originalContent': '投资要点美国2月CPI、核心CPI涨幅均超预期，其中总体CPI受能源价格上涨的推升作用幅度较大。据美国劳工统计局当地时间3月12日上午公布的数据，美国2月CPI（经季节调整，下同）、核心CPI同比分别增长3.2%、3.8%，分别较1月反弹0.1个百分点和小幅回落0.1个百分点，均明显强于市场预期。通胀能否稳定较快向2%的长期目标区间回落是当前美联储何时进行首次降息决策的最重要决定因素，2月数据的超预期表现或将令美联储更加犹豫谨慎。从总体CPI的角度来看，年初以来原油价格的上涨正在以较为直接的路径向能源CPI传导，后者2月环比涨幅高达2.3%，创出近6个月以来新高。当前加沙地区和红海区��地缘政治冲突严峻、复杂难解，沙特等OPEC重点产油国延长自愿减产协议，预计国际油价仍将维持高位，在连续5个月粘滞于3.1%-3.3%的狭窄区间之后，美国总体CPI同比增速的回落之路仍非坦途。同样超预期的核心CPI则呈现出三大结构性特征：1）新一轮薪资高位向通胀的传导效应成型；2）本轮美联储加息并未对房价和房租形成大幅抑制；3）美国居民消费意愿强劲。三大结构性强劲表现一旦持续数月，美联储“首降”的时点都将被迫推迟。2月美国核心CPI同比高达3.8%，仅较1月小幅回落0.1个百分点，过去5个月累计仅下行0.3个百分点，下行速度大幅放缓，环比涨幅更高达0.36%，为过去10个月次高水平，并呈现三大结构性走强的特征。1）两大主要受数月前薪资增速传导效应决定的分项：核心非耐用消费品和除房租外的核心服务CPI环比均大幅反弹，2月环比分别增长达0.32%和0.52%，涨幅均显著高于过去12个月平均水平，显示美国薪资增速在过去数个月中所呈现的高位黏性已经开始滞后地向美国核心CPI形成传导，美国的“薪资通胀螺旋”在薪资向通胀传导一侧不但未有缓解，甚至有所强化。2）2月房租环比涨幅仍超过0.4%，大幅高于疫情前数年的正常均值涨幅；考虑到房租往往是此前5个月房价的滞后、平均意义上的综合体现，本轮美联储的迅速加息路径实际上并未对美国房价和租金造成实质性的抑制效果，而这一点也将阻碍美国核心CPI的下行。3）2月美国耐用消费品环比跌幅仅-0.06%，较1月收窄达0.4个百分点，是过去9个月的连续环比下跌过程至今跌幅最小单月，该分项与美国居民消费需求的关联度较高，显示美国当前仍处于财政扩张、居民收入高增驱动的需求偏热周期阶段，强劲的消费需求也将对美国“薪资通胀螺旋”形成强化作用。我们小幅上修美国核心CPI预测，预计在5月同比降至3.4%之后，将基本维持在这一“平台”水平直至10月，唯有在11-12月预计才可小幅下行至3.3%左右，仍远高于美联储2%的长期通胀目标。加之美国潜在劳动力供给空间有限，年内失业率可能将再度有所下行，我们维持美联储首次降息预计发生在9月的相对市场更为谨慎的预测不变。非美发达经济体经济增长前景普遍趋于恶化，核心通胀回落已经并预计将持续快于美国，欧英央行被迫提前于美联储在6月实施降息的概率提升，年初至今美元指数的上行趋势或远未完结，不可低估其所带来的全球流动性紧缩效应，我国货币政策宽松性操作年内仍可能持续受到人民币被动贬值压力的牵制，财政政策维持或超出两会年度预算的扩张规模对于今年5%左右高质量增长目标的重要性进一步提升。风险提示：美联储降息晚于预期导致美元指数上冲、限制我国货币宽松空间风险。', 'content': 'Investment Points: The U.S. CPI and core CPI rose more than expected in February, with overall CPI being driven up significantly by rising energy prices. According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on the morning of March 12, local time, the U.S. CPI (seasonally adjusted, the same below) and core CPI increased by 3.2% and 3.8% respectively year-on-year in February, rebounding 0.1 percentage points and slightly from January respectively. fell 0.1 percentage points, both significantly stronger than market expectations. Whether inflation can fall stably and quickly toward the long-term target range of 2% is the most important determinant of when the Federal Reserve will make its first interest rate cut. The higher-than-expected performance of February data may make the Federal Reserve more hesitant and cautious. From the perspective of overall CPI, the rise in crude oil prices since the beginning of the year is being transmitted to energy CPI in a more direct way. The latter increased by as much as 2.3% month-on-month in February, hitting a new high in the past six months. The current geopolitical conflicts in Gaza and the Red Sea region are severe, complex and difficult to resolve. Saudi Arabia and other key OPEC oil-producing countries have extended their voluntary production reduction agreement. It is expected that international oil prices will remain high and have stuck at a narrow range of 3.1%-3.3% for five consecutive months. After reaching the range, the path for the U.S. overall CPI to fall back year-on-year is still not smooth. The core CPI, which also exceeded expectations, showed three major structural characteristics: 1) The transmission effect of a new round of high wages to inflation is taking shape; 2) The current round of Fed interest rate hikes did not significantly suppress housing prices and rents; 3) U.S. residents Willingness to consume is strong. Once the strong performance of the three major structural factors continues for several months, the Fed\\'s \"first cut\" will be forced to postpone. In February, the U.S. core CPI reached 3.8% year-on-year, only a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from January. In the past five months, the cumulative decline has only been 0.3 percentage points. The downward rate has slowed down significantly, and the month-on-month increase has been as high as 0.36%, the highest in the past 10 months. It is at a high level and shows three major structural strengthening characteristics. 1) The two major sub-categories, which are mainly determined by the transmission effect of wage growth a few months ago: core non-durable consumer goods and core services excluding rent, both rebounded sharply month-on-month, with month-on-month growth of 0.32% and 0.52% respectively in February. Significantly higher than the average level of the past 12 months, it shows that the high stickiness of U.S. wage growth in the past few months has begun to be transmitted to the U.S. core CPI with a lag. The U.S. \"wage inflation spiral\" is transmitting wages to inflation. Not only was there no relief on one side, it was even intensified. 2) The month-on-month increase in rents in February still exceeded 0.4%, which is significantly higher than the normal average increase in the years before the epidemic; considering that rents are often a lagging and average comprehensive reflection of housing prices in the previous five months, this round of rapid acceleration by the Federal Reserve The interest rate path has not actually had a substantial suppressive effect on U.S. housing prices and rents, and this will also hinder the decline of U.S. core CPI. 3) In February, the month-on-month decline in U.S. durable consumer goods was only -0.06%, which was 0.4 percentage points narrower than in January. It was the smallest monthly decline in the past nine months of continuous month-on-month declines. The relationship between this sub-item and the consumer demand of U.S. residents The high degree shows that the United States is still in the stage of a demand cycle driven by fiscal expansion and high household income growth. Strong consumer demand will also strengthen the \"wage inflation spiral\" in the United States. We have slightly revised up our U.S. core CPI forecast, predicting that after falling to 3.4% year-on-year in May, it will basically remain at this \"platform\" level until October. Only in November and December is it expected to drop slightly to around 3.3%. , remains well above the Fed\\'s long-term inflation target of 2%. Coupled with the limited potential labor supply space in the United States, the unemployment rate may fall again during the year. We maintain the relatively cautious market forecast that the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut is expected to occur in September. The economic growth prospects of non-US developed economies have generally worsened. Core inflation has fallen and is expected to continue to be faster than that of the United States. The probability that the European and British central banks will be forced to cut interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve in June has increased. The upward trend of the U.S. dollar index so far this year may be It is far from over, and the global liquidity tightening effect it will bring cannot be underestimated. my country\\'s monetary policy easing operations may continue to be constrained by the passive depreciation pressure of the RMB during the year. The fiscal policy maintains or exceeds the expansion scale of the annual budget of the two sessions, which is 5% this year. The importance of high-quality growth targets has further increased. Risk warning: The Federal Reserve\\'s later-than-expected interest rate cut caused the U.S. dollar index to rise, limiting the risk of my country\\'s monetary easing space.', 'authorid': UUID('ae91a726-1e5a-5a58-8cc8-85a64f6c36b2'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6401763260364532, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GQ9PBTFRFJJEIRL0R8TK8AK5GNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GQ9PBTFRFJJEIRL0R8TK8AK5GNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7b2bf90f-3d7c-52c2-b2a8-65a5dc7226de'), 'title': 'Macro Comment: February inflation: exceeded expectations, but insufficient', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el9lLYjeWZqepxle0TH+agQo=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el9lLYjeWZqepxle0TH+agQo=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证���', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626494752_1.pdf?1710316779000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626494752_1.pdf?1710316779000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: February inflation: exceeded expectations, but insufficient', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '美国通胀“1月特例论”不攻自破，2月数据很“不给面子”。美国2月通胀和核心通胀双双超预期，这似乎和各联储密切跟踪的通胀指标的回落有些“背道而驰”。评估美国通胀指标显示潜在的通胀在不断“迈”向2%，剔除异常波动后的通胀持续回落。但我们认为当前最核心的佐证通胀前景的指标亚特兰大联储粘性CPI回落缓慢，显现出通胀更具有持续性。这也是通胀所需要走的“最艰难、最后一段路”。最后一段路，谁在“拖后腿”？根据旧金山联储，很明显通胀回落的堵点在于“需求型通胀”和“周期型通胀”。具体来说，需求型通胀被定义为同月价格和数量的实际值高于预测值；周期型通胀则是把价格对整体经济状况更为敏感的类别归纳于此。更直白的说，当前的通胀几乎完全是由住房租金及住宿、医疗保健和交通等服务推动的。从细项上来看2月通胀数据，住房和汽油价格是导致指数上升的主要原因，两者占2月增幅的60%以上。食品和家庭食品价格整体与上月保持不变。核心商品方面，新车和二手车的价格走势脱节。那么具体来看：能源价格是推动本次整体CPI上涨的重要推手。2月能源通胀掉头加速，根据美国汽车协会数据，普通汽油价格较一个月前上涨约20美分，涨幅超过6%，成为能源价格反弹的主要原因。虽然能源在一揽子CPI中占比并不是最大的，但是油价不仅影响着商品价格，也会延伸到其他服务价格，这也将抬升通胀预期从而加剧通胀风险。住房租金仍是最大“贡献者”，但增速有所放缓。2月住房分项CPI环比上升0.5%，住房通胀的韧性仍是核心CPI的主要拉动。但相对于1月住房分项增速的跳涨，2月增速明显有所放缓。房租环比也从1月0.6%下降至0.4%，住房通胀有所降温。但当前住房类通胀的居高不下仍使得通胀目标的实现面临重重阻碍，近期美国房价指数同比增速有所回升，谨防后续对住房类CPI的持续传导。超级核心通胀使美联储政策转向更加“纠结”。2月美联储钟爱的指标—超级核心通胀（剔除了住房的核心CPI服务分项）环比上涨0.5%，虽然相较于1月环比上涨的0.85%有所放缓，但仍旧高于疫前水平。且同比上涨高达4.5%，创下近一年以来的最大上涨幅度。服务业的韧性依然是美联储抗通胀路上的最大“绊脚石”。从分项上来看，2月除医疗护理服务环比下降外，运输服务（环比1.4%）、休闲服务（环比0.5%）、教育和通讯服务环比增速（环比0.5%）均呈现加速趋势。不过环比薪资上涨动能放缓，缓解通胀粘性。2月非农报告显示薪资环比大幅降温至0.1%，这对于通胀来说无疑是“好消息”。不过鉴于劳动力供给紧俏情况尚未完全好转，美国企业涨薪的趋势在短期内快速逆转仍有待观察。2月薪资同比增速达4.3%，距离目标水平仍有距离。且从行业来看，采矿业、制造业、运输业、金融业及其他服务业的同比薪资增速仍高达5%的水平。再者，核心商品环比增速的转正也是后续通胀回升的一大“隐患”。虽然2月核心商品同比增速延续负增长，助力核心CPI继续下行。但从环比增速上来看，2月在二手车（环比0.5%）的带动下，核心商品环比增速一度结束了去年6月以来持续的负增长，给后续核心通胀的回升埋下隐患。尤其是近两个月Manheim二手车价格指数环比呈现回升趋势，二手车分项通胀。通胀不仅扰动着美联储，同样是拜登的一大“心结”。因为从通胀和失业角度来看，当总统任期内发生高通胀和高失业率时，一般连任失败。截至目前，虽然拜登四年任期内失业率控制的较好，但平均物价水平却仍旧与连任成功的2.9%有差距。因此若想要连任成功，通胀还需要再加把劲儿。而相比于美联储“无法保证通胀会持续降至联储目标2%”，拜登显得更有“信心”，他在费城竞选活动上公开“打赌”预测降息，这在历史上还是头一次。鉴于通胀当前对美联储加息的指引性更强，根据此前我们的测算，通胀如果不能连续保持“好”的环比下降标准，那么将在上半年小幅反弹。这也符合鲍威尔及其他票委此前的判断：通胀将以一种崎岖的方式回落。因此需要物价以“令人信服”的方式放缓，这一要求便是环比稳定在0.3%的增幅以下，或者更低。显然本月核心通胀环比上涨的0.4%，离着“好”的方向远��一步。至于降息何时开启？上周鲍威尔曾表示，如果通胀走势符合预期，降息的过程“将会在今年开始”。我们认为这一标准是CPI至少要持续下降3个月，美联储才会认可通胀的下降趋势。由于本月通胀的小幅反弹，美联储需要跟多份数据的支持才能对降息更有“信心”，6月降息越来越难。风险提示：全球通胀超预期上行，美国经济提前进入显著衰退，巴以冲突局势失控，美国银行危机再起金融风险暴露。', 'content': 'The \"January special case\" theory of U.S. inflation is self-defeating, and the February data is \"unworthy of face.\" Both U.S. inflation and core inflation in February exceeded expectations, which seems to be somewhat \"contrary\" to the fall in inflation indicators closely tracked by the Federal Reserve. Evaluating U.S. inflation indicators shows that underlying inflation continues to \"move\" towards 2%, and inflation after excluding abnormal fluctuations continues to fall. However, we believe that the Atlanta Fed\\'s sticky CPI, the current core indicator supporting the outlook for inflation, has fallen slowly, showing that inflation is more sustainable. This is also the “most difficult and final path” that inflation needs to take. Who is \"holding back\" on the last stretch of the road? According to the San Francisco Fed, it is obvious that the blocking point for the fall in inflation lies in \"demand inflation\" and \"cyclical inflation.\" Specifically, demand-based inflation is defined as the actual value of prices and quantities in the same month being higher than the forecast value; cyclical inflation is a category where prices are more sensitive to overall economic conditions. To put it more bluntly, current inflation is driven almost entirely by housing rents and services such as accommodation, health care and transport. Looking at the February inflation data in detail, housing and gasoline prices were the main reasons for the increase in the index, accounting for more than 60% of February\\'s increase. Food and household food prices overall remained unchanged from the previous month. In terms of core commodities, the price trends of new cars and used cars are out of sync. Let’s look more specifically: Energy prices are an important driver of this overall CPI increase. Energy inflation turned around and accelerated in February. According to data from the American Automobile Association, the price of regular gasoline rose by about 20 cents, or more than 6%, from a month ago, which became the main reason for the rebound in energy prices. Although energy does not account for the largest proportion of the CPI package, oil prices not only affect commodity prices, but also extend to other service prices, which will also raise inflation expectations and intensify inflation risks. Housing rents are still the largest \"contributor\", but the growth rate has slowed down. The housing sub-CPI increased by 0.5% month-on-month in February, and the resilience of housing inflation is still the main driver of core CPI. However, compared with the jump in housing sub-item growth in January, the growth rate in February slowed down significantly. Month-on-month rents also dropped from 0.6% to 0.4% in January, and housing inflation has cooled. However, the current high level of housing inflation still poses many obstacles to the realization of the inflation target. The U.S. housing price index has recently picked up year-on-year growth, and we should be wary of continued transmission of housing CPI. Super core inflation makes the Fed\\'s policy shift more \"tangled.\" The Fed\\'s favorite indicator, super core inflation (the core CPI service component excluding housing), rose 0.5% month-on-month in February. Although it slowed down from the 0.85% month-on-month increase in January, it was still higher than pre-epidemic levels. And the year-on-year increase was as high as 4.5%, the largest increase in the past year. The resilience of the service industry remains the biggest \"stumbling block\" to the Fed\\'s fight against inflation. From a sub-item perspective, in addition to the month-on-month decrease in medical and nursing services in February, the month-on-month growth rates of transportation services (month-on-month 1.4%), leisure services (month-on-month 0.5%), education and communication services (month-on-month 0.5%) all showed an accelerating trend. However, the momentum of month-on-month wage growth has slowed down, easing the stickiness of inflation. The February non-farm payrolls report showed that wages dropped sharply to 0.1% month-on-month, which is undoubtedly \"good news\" for inflation. However, given that the tight labor supply situation has not yet completely improved, it remains to be seen whether the trend of wage increases in U.S. companies will reverse quickly in the short term. Salary growth in February reached 4.3% year-on-year, still far from the target level. From an industry perspective, year-on-year wage growth in the mining, manufacturing, transportation, financial and other service industries is still as high as 5%. Furthermore, the positive month-on-month growth rate of core commodities is also a major \"hidden risk\" for the subsequent rise in inflation. Although the year-on-year growth rate of core commodities in February continued to be negative, it helped the core CPI continue to decline. However, from the perspective of month-on-month growth, in February, driven by second-hand cars (0.5% month-on-month), the month-on-month growth rate of core commodities once ended the negative growth that had continued since June last year, laying hidden dangers for the subsequent rebound in core inflation. Especially in the past two months, the Manheim second-hand car price index has shown an upward trend month-on-month, and second-hand car inflation has been sub-indexed. Inflation not only disturbs the Federal Reserve, but is also a major concern for Biden. Because from the perspective of inflation and unemployment, when high inflation and high unemployment occur during a president\\'s term, he generally fails to be re-elected. So far, although Biden has controlled the unemployment rate well during his four-year term, the average price level is still far from the 2.9% that he achieved during his re-election. Therefore, if we want to be re-elected successfully, inflation needs to increase. Compared with the fact that the Fed \"cannot guarantee that inflation will continue to fall to the Fed\\'s target of 2%,\" Biden appears more \"confident.\" He publicly \"betted\" on predicting an interest rate cut at a campaign event in Philadelphia. This is the first time in history. Given that inflation is currently a stronger guideline for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, according to our previous calculations, if inflation cannot continue to maintain a \"good\" month-on-month decline standard, it will rebound slightly in the first half of the year. This is also consistent with the previous judgment of Powell and other voting committee members: inflation will fall back in a bumpy way. Therefore, prices need to slow down in a \"convincing\" way. This requirement is to stabilize at a month-on-month growth rate of less than 0.3%, or even lower. Obviously, core inflation rose by 0.4% month-on-month this month, which is a step away from the \"good\" direction. As for when the interest rate cut will start? Powell said last week that if inflation moves as expected, the process of cutting interest rates \"will begin this year.\" We believe that the standard is that CPI must continue to decline for at least 3 months before the Fed will recognize the downward trend in inflation. Due to the slight rebound in inflation this month, the Federal Reserve needs the support of multiple data to be more \"confident\" in cutting interest rates. It is becoming increasingly difficult to cut interest rates in June. Risk warning: Global inflation is rising faster than expected, the U.S. economy has entered a significant recession ahead of schedule, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is out of control, and the U.S. banking crisis has revived financial risk exposure.', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8809853345155716, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '85H7OT2BE2RAL68T8G437226PVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:54 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '85H7OT2BE2RAL68T8G437226PVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5b420262-a6aa-5c47-90c5-059767d2da67'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Comments: Looking at the level of fiscal efforts in 2024 from the budget report', 'author': 'He Ning', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6ely0FGuBxWIKwJ9/ZPLcECrk=', 'researcher': '何宁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6ely0FGuBxWIKwJ9/ZPLcECrk=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626490379_1.pdf?1710277535000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626490379_1.pdf?1710277535000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Comments: Looking at the level of fiscal efforts in 2024 from the budget report', 'originalAuthor': '何宁', 'originalContent': '事件：3月5日，财政部发布《关于2023年中央和地方预算执行情况与2024年中央和地方预算草案的报告》，以下简称“《报告》”。2024年一般公共预算收支增长适度，基建支出小幅加速1、从第一本账预算来看，2024年财政发力较为适度，收支增速平稳。2024年全国一般公共预算收入22.4万亿，同比增长3.1%���2023年增速为3.4%）。支出方面，全国公共预算支出总量为28.5万亿，同比增长3.8%（2023年增速为3.0%）。收支缺口约为6万亿，其中安排赤字弥补4.06万亿，剩余2万亿主要是调入资金和结转结余。2、实际收入总量可能存在缺口。进一步拆分，中央预算稳定调节基金调入+中央另外两本账调入和中央结转结余资金共约8200亿元；地方财政调入及使用结转结余12708亿，主要是地方政府往年支出的结余加上其他三本账用于平衡年度预算的调入收入。但因为近两年土地收入的下滑，地方财政收入可调入资金或有限，因此若年内无增量资金，财政收支或存在一定缺口。2023年，该科目预算数为1.18万亿，而实际值为8991亿元，少增约2800亿。但由于2023年内增发1万亿国债，这部分缺口未造成支出力度缩减。3、预算内投资的发力方向未出现明显转变，基建类支出小幅加力。2024年安排中央预算内投资7000亿，增加了200亿元，《报告》显示，政府投资将重点支持科技创新、新型基础设施、节能减排降碳，加强民生等薄弱领域补短板等。此外，预计这部分中央预算内投资将主要用于大规模设备更新创新、消费需求结构升级等方向。2024年全国预算支出中投向基建、民生领域的规模分别为5.9万亿、8.4万亿；相对于2023年实际值分别增长了4.2%和3.9%。预计2023年基建类财政保障力度将有所加强，但基建和民生支出的相对占比并未出现大幅变化。结合两本账衡量广义财政的发力水平1、政府性基金预算对地方政府土地收入假设偏乐观，或存在较大缺口。全国政府性基金预算收入7.08万亿，比2023年初预算数同比减少9.4%。与2023年实际值相比基本持平，同比增长约为0.1%，其中地方政府性基金收入也基本与2023年实际值持平，因此预算中隐含2024年土地收入0增长的假设。政府性基金预算支出约为12万亿，同比增长2%。其中中央政府性基金预算支出14866亿元，1万亿超长期特别国债支出便包含在内，值得注意的是，其中有6153亿元作为转移支付给地方，或指向仍有4千亿左右的特别国债由中央支出。2、综合一般公共预算和政府性基金两本账，财政力度强于2023年。（1）两本账合计预算支出增幅大于收入。两本账预算收入共约29.5万亿；两本账合计预算支出同比增加3.2%。但由于第二本账财政预算中对2024年土地收入的假设偏乐观，实际财政力度或需取决于地方政府性基金收入，第二本账收支可能存在一定缺口。（2）广义财政资金增量或超过1万亿。若以广义口径，即预算内+预算外资金衡量财政资金支持投资的力度，2024年总规模约为赤字4.06万亿+1万亿特别国债+3.9万亿专项债，共计约9万亿；此外，2023年增发国债还有大部分将在2024年使用，因此总体相对2023年有约1.3万亿增量资金（2023年增发国债按每年各使用5000亿测算）。财政支出温和扩张，但或存在一定压力总结来看，2024年财政支出力度温和扩张，第二本账是国内经济的主要支撑。但考虑地产调整、地方政府财源缩窄等问题，财政收支平衡或存压力。2022-2023年地方土地收入增速平均为-18%，我们认为2024年地产销售将边际回升，但地产中长期调整的趋势或难以扭转。若假设2024年地方政府性收入增速为-5%—-10%，则地方政府性基金收入或比预算减少约3400-6700亿元。此外，正如上文提到的，2023年地方结转结余收入缺口约2800亿元，若2024年这部分收入不及预算的情况延续，且年内无增量财政收入来源，则财政或有一定压力。因此，我们认为若后续实际经济表现与目标有差距，财政也可能在年中继续加力。风险提示：经济超预期下行；政策执行不及预期。', 'content': 'Event: On March 5, the Ministry of Finance released the \"Report on the Implementation of the Central and Local Budgets in 2023 and the Draft Central and Local Budgets in 2024\", hereinafter referred to as the \"Report\". The general public budget revenue and expenditure will grow moderately in 2024, and infrastructure expenditure will accelerate slightly. 1. Judging from the first budget, the fiscal effort in 2024 will be relatively moderate, and the revenue and expenditure growth will be stable. The national general public budget revenue in 2024 will be 22.4 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% (the growth rate in 2023 will be 3.4%). In terms of expenditure, the total national public budget expenditure is 28.5 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% (the growth rate in 2023 will be 3.0%). The revenue and expenditure gap is about 6 trillion yuan, of which 4.06 trillion yuan is arranged to make up for the deficit, and the remaining 2 trillion yuan is mainly due to transferred funds and carryover balances. 2. There may be a gap in the actual total income. Further split, the central budget stabilization fund was transferred in + the other two central accounts transferred in and the central carryover and balance funds totaled about 820 billion yuan; local finance transferred and used the carryover and balance of 1.2708 billion yuan, mainly the expenditures of local governments in previous years. The balance plus the transfer revenue from the other three accounts is used to balance the annual budget. However, due to the decline in land revenue in the past two years, the funds that can be transferred from local fiscal revenue may be limited. Therefore, if there is no additional funds within the year, there may be a certain gap in fiscal revenue and expenditure. In 2023, the budget for this subject is 1.18 trillion yuan, while the actual value is 899.1 billion yuan, a decrease of about 280 billion yuan. However, due to the issuance of an additional 1 trillion treasury bonds in 2023, this gap has not resulted in a reduction in spending. 3. There has been no obvious change in the direction of budgetary investment, and infrastructure expenditure has increased slightly. In 2024, an investment of 700 billion is arranged within the central budget, an increase of 20 billion yuan. The \"Report\" shows that government investment will focus on supporting technological innovation, new infrastructure, energy conservation and emission reduction, and strengthening people\\'s livelihood and other weak areas to make up for shortcomings. In addition, it is expected that this part of the central budget investment will be mainly used for large-scale equipment updating and innovation, upgrading of consumer demand structure, etc. In 2024, the scale of national budget expenditures invested in infrastructure and people\\'s livelihood fields will be 5.9 trillion and 8.4 trillion respectively; compared with the actual values \\u200b\\u200bin 2023, they will increase by 4.2% and 3.9% respectively. It is expected that financial support for infrastructure construction will be strengthened in 2023, but the relative proportions of infrastructure and people\\'s livelihood expenditures have not changed significantly. Combining the two accounts to measure the level of efforts of general finance 1. The assumption of the government fund budget on local government land revenue is optimistic, or there may be a large gap. The national government fund budget revenue is 7.08 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4% from the budget figure at the beginning of 2023. Compared with the actual value in 2023, it is basically the same, with a year-on-year growth of about 0.1%. The income of local government funds is also basically the same as the actual value in 2023. Therefore, the budget implies an assumption of zero growth in land revenue in 2024. The budget expenditure of government funds is approximately 12 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Among them, the central government fund budget expenditure is 1,486.6 billion yuan, including the 1 trillion ultra-long-term special government bond expenditure. It is worth noting that 615.3 billion yuan of this amount is used as transfer payments to local governments, or it may refer to the special funds that still have about 400 billion yuan. National debt is paid by the central government. 2. Combining the general public budget and government funds, the fiscal strength will be stronger than in 2023. (1) The total budget expenditure of the two accounts increased more than the revenue. The total budget revenue of the two accounts is approximately 29.5 trillion; the total budget expenditure of the two accounts increased by 3.2% year-on-year. However, since the assumption of land revenue in 2024 in the second fiscal budget is optimistic, the actual fiscal strength may depend on the revenue of local government funds, and there may be a certain gap in the revenue and expenditure of the second fiscal account. (2) The increase in general fiscal funds may exceed 1 trillion. If we use a broad approach, that is, budgetary + extrabudgetary funds to measure the intensity of fiscal funds supporting investment, the total scale in 2024 will be approximately 4.06 trillion yuan in deficit + 1 trillion yuan in special government bonds + 3.9 trillion yuan in special bonds, totaling approximately 9 trillion yuan; in addition , most of the additional treasury bonds issued in 2023 will be used in 2024, so the overall increase in funds compared to 2023 is about 1.3 trillion (the additional treasury bonds issued in 2023 are calculated as using 500 billion each year). Fiscal expenditures are expanding moderately, but there may be some pressure. To sum up, fiscal expenditures will expand moderately in 2024, and the second account is the main support for the domestic economy. However, considering issues such as real estate adjustments and shrinking financial resources of local governments, there may be pressure on fiscal balance. The average growth rate of local land revenue from 2022 to 2023 is -18%. We believe that real estate sales will rebound marginally in 2024, but the trend of mid- to long-term real estate adjustments may be difficult to reverse. If it is assumed that the growth rate of local government revenue in 2024 is -5% to -10%, then local government fund revenue may be approximately 340-670 billion yuan less than the budget. In addition, as mentioned above, the local carryover and balance revenue gap in 2023 is about 280 billion yuan. If this part of the revenue in 2024 continues to be less than the budget, and there is no source of incremental fiscal revenue during the year, the finance may be under certain pressure. Therefore, we believe that if there is a gap between the subsequent actual economic performance and the target, fiscal policy may continue to increase in the middle of the year. Risk warning: The economy declines more than expected; policy implementation falls short of expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('52a5389c-6434-575d-ad8f-dccb9d09cd11'), 'sentimentScore': 0.3539019413292408, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'VH3PJ0N9FJOTGCPVC1JOPP8AUFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:38:57 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'VH3PJ0N9FJOTGCPVC1JOPP8AUFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('07b3aaed-09ee-5511-afaa-3b27c1e65679'), 'title': 'Short-term and medium- and long-term inflation framework: exploring the multiple interpretation paths of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts', 'author': 'Zhang Jun , Yu Jintong', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el8cJ4H/a40BQdWGWV4q4UCA=', 'researcher': '章俊,于金潼', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000440456'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el8cJ4H/a40BQdWGWV4q4UCA=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626488914_1.pdf?1710274722000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626488914_1.pdf?1710274722000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Short-term and medium- and long-term inflation framework: exploring the multiple interpretation paths of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,于金潼', 'originalContent': '核心观点：鲍威尔暗示降息在路上，但目前的市场预期存在哪些风险？年初市场的降息预测较为激进，一度为3月进行首次降息，全年最多可能降息7次。不过，随着劳动市场、通胀和经济数据展现超预期的韧性，当前的主流预测已经变为6月首次降息，全年累计4次共100BP，也有部分意见认为存在2024年不降息的风险。令市场松了一口气的是，鲍威尔在3月6日的国会听证中表示“适时在今年某个时候开始缓和限制性的货币政策”。虽然如此，近期强于预期的数据令投资者不得不考虑一些问题：（1）什么因素可能导致美联储在2024年降息幅度不及预期？（2）美联储2024年不降息的概率有多大？通胀隐忧之下，降息时点和幅度可能发生什么变化？可能导致降息不及预期的短期因素：居住成本相关的统计问题可能是导致通胀回落不及预期的最直接的风险，核心服务价格在劳动供需缺口下的粘性短期保持，但终将回落，意外的冲突对能源价格的扰动也应警惕，食品和核心商品无需过度忧虑。通胀在前三季度曲折下行的趋势仍在，但四季度可能回升并向3%靠拢，这也易导致美联储的降息幅度更加克制。CPI统计修订了业主等价租金的分项权重，增加了涨价幅度更明显的“独户住宅”占比，这也直接导致2024年1月3.1%的CPI同比增速显著超过2.9%的市场预期。在目前的地产供需格局下，预计业主等价租金（OER）的环比增速可能在2024年小幅高于主要居所租金，为通胀更顺畅的下行制造小幅阻力。值得关注的中长期因素中，债务影响可能最为明显：如有证据表明美国老龄人口退休加剧并带动储蓄率下行、政治因素导致（计划）立法通过大量新增关税、地缘政治冲突长期持续并提升大宗商品成本、美国财政支出再度超预期扩张，则2024年的降息幅度可能也会被这些中长期因素所限制。老龄化方面，（1）在不考虑技术进步的情况下，老龄抚养比的上升对总产出的负面贡献不利于低通胀的保持；（2）部分研究认为老龄化导致储蓄率降低，而储蓄可能被转换为需求和流动性，增加通胀。（3）持续的超额退休使美国劳动缺口闭合十分缓慢，偏高劳动需求下薪资和通胀形成循环。逆全球化方面，特朗普潜���的“回归”与其关税政策是重要担忧。中长期框架中目前最明显的压力来自于拜登政府新公布的财政计划，白宫预计2024和2025年赤字率仍高达6.6%和6.1%。而贫富差距、生产力与经济扩张和绿色低碳等问题影响尚不突出。美联储2024年不降息的概率有多大？降息的幅度和时点可能发生什么变化？不降息的概率目前很低，在鲍威尔等重要官员表态会在某一时点降低政策利率的基础上，美联储的“实际利率”框架和泰勒规则也并不支持联邦基金利率在通胀继续放缓的基础上保持高位。但如果通胀出人意料的大幅反弹引发不降息，10年期美债收益率在赤字率不低的基础上可能再度挑战5%，美元指数回升超过105，美股也面临更长期高利率下的业绩压力。考虑到通胀数据中居住成本对通胀降低形成的阻碍、劳动市场和核心服务价格粘性略强于预期、白宫计划的财政支出力度和赤字率仍然较强，我们维持美联储在二季度末进行首次降息的判断，但将全年降息次数修正为3次75BP。在年中进行首次降息后，美联储可能在有充分数据观察时间的9月和12月进行第二和第三次降息；而如果四季度CPI快速回升至3%以上，核心CPI仍未降至3%附近，则美联储可能选择在12月不降息，全年仅降息2次。风险提示1.美国市场流动性意外紧张的风险2.美国财政力度意外放缓的风险3.大选年政治不确定性的相关风险', 'content': 'Core Viewpoint: Powell hinted that a rate cut is on the way, but what are the risks to current market expectations? At the beginning of the year, the market\\'s interest rate cut predictions were relatively radical. At one point, the first rate cut was made in March, and up to seven rate cuts were possible throughout the year. However, as the labor market, inflation and economic data show stronger-than-expected resilience, the current mainstream forecast has become the first interest rate cut in June, with a total of 4 times for the year totaling 100BP. Some opinions believe that there is a risk of no interest rate cut in 2024. To the market\\'s relief, Powell stated during a congressional hearing on March 6 that it would be \"appropriate to begin easing restrictive monetary policy at some point this year.\" Nonetheless, the recent stronger-than-expected data has forced investors to consider some questions: (1) What factors may cause the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates less than expected in 2024? (2) What is the probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in 2024? Amid concerns about inflation, what might happen to the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts? Short-term factors that may lead to a lower-than-expected interest rate cut: Statistical issues related to housing costs may be the most direct risk that causes inflation to fall lower than expected. Core service prices remain sticky in the short term under the gap between labor supply and demand, but will eventually fall. Unexpected conflicts have a negative impact on the economy. We should also be alert to disturbances in energy prices, and there is no need to worry too much about food and core commodities. The downward trend of inflation in the first three quarters is still there, but it may rebound and move closer to 3% in the fourth quarter, which may also lead to the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate cuts being more restrained. CPI statistics have revised the sub-item weights of owner-equivalent rents and increased the proportion of \"single-family homes\" with more obvious price increases. This has also directly caused the CPI year-on-year growth rate of 3.1% in January 2024 to significantly exceed the 2.9% market. expected. Under the current real estate supply and demand pattern, it is expected that the month-on-month growth rate of owner-equivalent rent (OER) may be slightly higher than that of primary residence rent in 2024, creating slight resistance to a smoother downward trend in inflation. Among the mid- to long-term factors worthy of attention, the impact of debt may be the most obvious: if there is evidence that the aging population in the United States is retiring and driving down the savings rate, political factors lead to (planned) legislation passing a large number of new tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts continue for a long time and increase the volume of commodities. Commodity costs and U.S. fiscal spending have once again expanded beyond expectations, and the extent of interest rate cuts in 2024 may also be limited by these medium- and long-term factors. In terms of aging, (1) without taking into account technological progress, the negative contribution of the increase in the old-age dependency ratio to total output is not conducive to maintaining low inflation; (2) some studies believe that aging leads to a reduction in the savings rate, and savings May be converted into demand and liquidity, increasing inflation. (3) Continued excess retirements have made the U.S. labor gap close very slowly, creating a cycle of wages and inflation under relatively high labor demand. In terms of anti-globalization, Trump\\'s potential \"return\" and his tariff policy are important concerns. The most obvious pressure in the mid- to long-term framework currently comes from the newly announced fiscal plan of the Biden administration. The White House predicts that the deficit rate will still be as high as 6.6% and 6.1% in 2024 and 2025. However, the impact of issues such as the gap between rich and poor, productivity and economic expansion, and green and low carbon is not yet prominent. What are the chances that the Fed will not cut interest rates in 2024? What might happen to the extent and timing of interest rate cuts? The probability of not cutting interest rates is currently very low. On the basis that important officials such as Powell have stated that they will lower policy interest rates at some point, the Fed\\'s \"real interest rate\" framework and the Taylor rule do not support the federal funds rate on the basis that inflation continues to slow. Keep it high. However, if an unexpected sharp rebound in inflation leads to no interest rate cut, the 10-year U.S. bond yield may challenge 5% again on the basis of a high deficit rate. The U.S. dollar index will rebound above 105, and U.S. stocks will also face performance pressure under longer-term high interest rates. Considering that the cost of living in the inflation data hinders the reduction of inflation, the price stickiness of the labor market and core services is slightly stronger than expected, and the fiscal spending intensity and deficit ratio planned by the White House are still strong, we maintain the Fed\\'s first interest rate cut at the end of the second quarter. Judgment, but revised the number of interest rate cuts throughout the year to 3 times 75BP. After cutting interest rates for the first time in the middle of the year, the Federal Reserve may make second and third interest rate cuts in September and December when there is sufficient data observation time; and if the CPI quickly rebounds to above 3% in the fourth quarter, the core CPI has not yet dropped to 3%. %, the Fed may choose not to cut interest rates in December and only cut interest rates twice throughout the year. Risk warning 1. Risk of unexpected tight liquidity in the US market 2. Risk of unexpected slowdown in US fiscal strength 3. Risks related to political uncertainty in the election year', 'authorid': UUID('aade9e7c-af7e-5d53-a8f5-2d3af8826809'), 'sentimentScore': 0.1454193890094757, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'JCB8HK4DBCJ6KBIQTA8T71D64VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:39:00 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'JCB8HK4DBCJ6KBIQTA8T71D64VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('49b6b535-1e98-53c5-b806-37f6e29ee3f5'), 'title': 'Monetary policy and liquidity observation: Funding remained loose at the beginning of the month', 'author': 'Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el7bMxXWJvi52xOmULblF4Vw=', 'researcher': '董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el7bMxXWJvi52xOmULblF4Vw=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626458054_1.pdf?1710270665000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626458054_1.pdf?1710270665000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Monetary policy and liquidity observation: Funding remained loose at the beginning of the month', 'originalAuthor': '董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点月初资金面保持宽松海外方面，上周（3月4日-3月8日）全球主要央行货币政策无重大变化。联邦资金利率期货隐含的3月FOMC降息25bp的可能性为3%，不降息的可能性为97%。国内流动性方面，月初资金面扰动因素较少，央行大幅回收超万亿元跨月基础货币，但流动性总体仍较为宽松，资金利率稳中有降，银行-非银分层回归历史平均水平。国信狭义流动性高频扩散指数较前一周（2月26日-3月1日）边际下降0.12至100.93。其中价格指标贡献-21%，数量指标贡献121%。价格指数上升（宽松）主要上周全周标准化后的R/DR加权利率偏离度（7天/14天利率减去同期限政策利率）和同业存单加权利率总体环比下行支撑，R001小幅上行拖累。数量上，央行上周逆回购大幅缩量，对数量指标形成拖累。本周需关注以下因素的扰动：15日为办税截止日，同业存单到期超过9000亿元。央行公开市场操作：上周（3月4日-3月10日），央行净投放流动性资金-11140亿元。其中：7天逆回购净投放-11140亿元（到期11640亿元，投放500亿元），14天逆回购净投放0亿元（到期0亿元，投放0亿元）。本周（3月11日-3月17日），央行逆回购将到期500亿元，其中7天逆回购到期500亿元，14天逆回购到期0亿元。截至本周一（3月11日）央行7天逆回购净投放0亿元，14天逆回购净投放0亿元，OMO存量为500亿元。银行间交易量：上周银行间市场质押回购平均日均成交7.26万亿，较前一周（2月26日-3月3日）增加0.81万亿。隔夜回购占比为88.8%，较前一周（85.7%）降低3.1pct。债券发行：上周政府债净融资1155.5亿元，，本周计划发行3805.3亿元，净融资额预计为-125.2亿元；上周同业存单净融资-684.4亿元，本周计划发行2261.4亿元，净融资额预计为-7626.1亿元；上周政策银行债净融资1250.0亿元，本周计划发行390.0亿元，净融资额预计为-340.0亿元；上周商业银行次级债券净融资0.0亿元，本周计划发行500.0亿元，净融资额预计为500.0亿元；上周企业债券净融资4379.8亿元（其中城投债融资贡献约5.9%），本周计划发行1320.9亿元，净融资额预计为-2226.1亿元。上周五（3月8日）人民币CFETS一篮子汇率指数较前一周（3月1日）下行0.72至98.72，同期美元指数下行1.14，位于102.74。3月8日，美元兑人民币在岸汇率较3月1日的7.19基本维持不变；离岸汇率基本维持不变位于7.20。风险提示：需求改善不及预期，海外经济进入衰退。', 'content': \"Core point of view: Funding remained loose at the beginning of the month. In terms of overseas markets, there were no major changes in the monetary policies of major central banks around the world last week (March 4-March 8). Federal funds rate futures imply a 3% chance of a 25bp rate cut by the March FOMC, and a 97% chance of no rate cut. In terms of domestic liquidity, there were few disturbing factors on the funding side at the beginning of the month. The central bank significantly recycled more than one trillion yuan of base money across the month. However, overall liquidity is still relatively loose. Funding interest rates are stable but falling, and the bank-non-bank stratification has returned to the historical average. . Guosen's narrow liquidity high-frequency diffusion index fell marginally by 0.12 to 100.93 from the previous week (February 26-March 1). Among them, the price indicator contributed -21% and the quantity indicator contributed 121%. The increase (easing) in the price index was mainly supported by the overall week-on-month downward trend in the standardized R/DR weighted interest rate deviation (7-day/14-day interest rate minus the policy interest rate for the same period) and the overall month-on-month decline in the weighted interest rate on interbank certificates of deposit, dragged down by the slight upward movement of R001. In terms of quantity, the central bank significantly reduced its reverse repurchase volume last week, which exerted a drag on quantitative indicators. This week we need to pay attention to the disturbance of the following factors: the 15th is the tax deadline, and interbank certificates of deposit expire over 900 billion yuan. Open market operations of the central bank: Last week (March 4-March 10), the central bank released net liquidity funds of -1.114 billion yuan. Among them: 7-day reverse repurchase net investment -1114 billion yuan (expiration of 1164 billion yuan, investment of 50 billion yuan), 14-day reverse repurchase net investment of 0 billion yuan (expiration of 0 billion yuan, investment of 0 billion yuan). This week (March 11-March 17), the central bank's reverse repurchase will expire 50 billion yuan, of which 7-day reverse repurchase will expire 50 billion yuan, and 14-day reverse repurchase will expire 0 billion yuan. As of this Monday (March 11), the central bank has invested a net RMB 0 billion in 7-day reverse repurchases and RMB 0.0 billion in 14-day reverse repurchases. The OMO stock is 50 billion yuan. Inter-bank transaction volume: The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos in the inter-bank market last week was 7.26 trillion, an increase of 0.81 trillion from the previous week (February 26-March 3). Overnight repurchases accounted for 88.8%, a decrease of 3.1pct from the previous week (85.7%). Bond issuance: Net financing of government bonds last week was 115.55 billion yuan, and 380.53 billion yuan is planned to be issued this week, with net financing expected to be -12.52 billion yuan; net financing of interbank certificates of deposit was -68.44 billion yuan last week, and 226.14 billion yuan is planned to be issued this week. , the net financing amount is expected to be -762.61 billion yuan; last week, the net financing of policy bank bonds was 125.0 billion yuan, and 39.0 billion yuan is planned to be issued this week, and the net financing amount is expected to be -34.00 billion yuan; last week, the net financing of commercial bank subordinated bonds was 0.0 billion, this week plans to issue 50.0 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is expected to be 50.0 billion yuan; last week, corporate bond net financing was 437.98 billion yuan (of which urban investment bond financing contributed about 5.9%), and this week it plans to issue 132.09 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 50.0 billion yuan. The amount of financing is expected to be -222.61 billion yuan. Last Friday (March 8), the RMB CFETS basket exchange rate index fell 0.72 to 98.72 from the previous week (March 1). During the same period, the U.S. dollar index fell 1.14 to 102.74. On March 8, the onshore exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the RMB was higher than that of the previous week (March 1). The 7.19 on March 1 remained basically unchanged; the offshore exchange rate remained basically unchanged at 7.20. Risk warning: Demand does not improve as expected, and overseas economies enter recession.\", 'authorid': UUID('7f0ba462-39fa-5efc-b2aa-f8b8339a39b2'), 'sentimentScore': -0.707776628434658, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '039G7M887RO3D01SBU9ME0LG1NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:39:35 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '039G7M887RO3D01SBU9ME0LG1NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('44859a08-43f0-5fe2-acc8-d995809d3fad'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic special research: risk subsidy interest rate research', 'author': 'Shao Xingyu, Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el2gG8wDTAdrX1tUDk+BIvH0=', 'researcher': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257974', '11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el2gG8wDTAdrX1tUDk+BIvH0=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626458052_1.pdf?1710270250000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626458052_1.pdf?1710270250000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic special research: risk subsidy interest rate research', 'originalAuthor': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点采用两阶段折现模型可以计算得到风险补贴利率。（1）考虑到中国资本市场所面临的增速换挡的宏观现实，我们采用两阶段折现模型计算风险补贴利率，其中初试增速设定为沪深300当期预期利润增速，永续增速设定为中国经济名义增速的长期中枢水平为6%（5%的实际增速+1%的GDP平减指数），无风险利率取10年期国债收益率。（2）风险补贴利率计算结果呈现均值回归规律。在2017年至今样本观测期间，风险补贴利率均值水平在14.7%，标准差为1.89%。风险补贴利率整体在两倍标准差即10.29%-17.86%之间波动，仅在2021年末出现小幅突破下限情况，整体呈现显著均值回归规律。风险补贴利率与主权CDS息差、沪深300指数高度相关。分别将计算结果与主权CDS息差和沪深300两类资产定价进行了比较。（1）从历史对比情况来看，2017年至今，我们计算所得的风险补贴利率与CDS息差之间一直存在较强相关性，具体反映为：风险补贴利率与CDS息差之间波动幅度并不完全一致，但波动方向大部分吻合，且在时间上同步。但两大指标在2022年4月-6月和2023年2月-4月之间也曾经发生过方向上的背离，我们认为这两个时间段的背离与特定事件发生后国内外存在一定信息差有关。（2）风险补贴利率与沪深300走势呈现显著负相关，即风险补贴利率下行，则对应沪深300上行。但是，这一组关系在历史上也曾经发生过背离，2023年8月底到2023年11月底，出现沪深300指数持续下行但风险补贴利率也下行的情况，这可能意味着这一阶段沪深300的调整并不来自于风险事件冲击，而更多来自于市场对潜在增速的下修。当前风险补贴利率大致位于历史均值附近。借助于两阶段估值模型，我们将市盈率的影响因子进一步拆分为潜在增速、无风险收益率和风险补贴利率三个部分。从计算结果来看，截止至2024年3月8日，风险补贴利率计算结果为14.2%，大致处于历史均值附近。风险提示：政策调整滞后，经济增速下滑。', 'content': \"The core point is that the risk subsidy rate can be calculated using a two-stage discount model. (1) Taking into account the macro reality of the growth rate shift faced by China’s capital market, we use a two-stage discount model to calculate the risk subsidy interest rate, in which the initial trial growth rate is set to the expected profit growth rate of the CSI 300 for the current period, and the sustainable growth rate is The speed is set as the long-term central level of China's nominal economic growth rate is 6% (5% real growth rate + 1% GDP deflator), and the risk-free interest rate is the 10-year government bond yield. (2) The calculation results of risk subsidy interest rate show the law of mean regression. During the sample observation period from 2017 to the present, the average level of risk subsidy interest rate is 14.7%, and the standard deviation is 1.89%. The overall risk subsidy rate fluctuates between two standard deviations, that is, 10.29%-17.86%. It only slightly broke through the lower limit at the end of 2021, showing a significant mean reversion pattern overall. The risk subsidy rate is highly correlated with sovereign CDS spreads and the CSI 300 Index. The calculation results are compared with the sovereign CDS spread and the CSI 300 asset pricing respectively. (1) Judging from the historical comparison, from 2017 to the present, there has always been a strong correlation between the risk subsidy interest rate and the CDS interest rate calculated by us. The specific reflection is as follows: the fluctuation range between the risk subsidy interest rate and the CDS interest spread is not the same. Not completely consistent, but the wave directions are mostly consistent and synchronized in time. However, the two major indicators have also diverged in direction between April and June 2022 and February and April 2023. We believe that the divergence between these two time periods is related to the existence of certain information at home and abroad after the occurrence of specific events. Difference related. (2) There is a significant negative correlation between the risk subsidy rate and the trend of the CSI 300. That is, a downward trend in the risk subsidy rate corresponds to an upward trend in the CSI 300. However, this set of relationships has also diverged in history. From the end of August 2023 to the end of November 2023, the CSI 300 Index continued to decline but the risk subsidy interest rate also declined. This may mean that the CSI 300 Index continued to decline during this period. The adjustment of 300 does not come from the impact of risk events, but more from the market's downward revision of potential growth. Current risk subsidy rates are roughly around historical averages. With the help of a two-stage valuation model, we further split the influencing factors of the price-to-earnings ratio into three parts: potential growth rate, risk-free rate of return, and risk subsidy rate. Judging from the calculation results, as of March 8, 2024, the risk subsidy interest rate calculation result is 14.2%, which is roughly around the historical average. Risk warning: Policy adjustments lag behind and economic growth slows down.\", 'authorid': UUID('326df97e-9b51-50f7-9a96-c9f92117a326'), 'sentimentScore': 0.017831798642873764, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '9A6TSP2DQ2H7I36FV95424HIQBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:39:38 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '9A6TSP2DQ2H7I36FV95424HIQBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1a9ceec4-da03-558d-beda-91ed19db6ebf'), 'title': 'Market expectations for China’s economic data in March 2024 are ahead of schedule: economic expectations are stable and inflation expectations are slightly higher.', 'author': 'Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli', 'orgName': '上海证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000155', 'orgSName': '上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elxd46C4wQqPnFu63fF5qxZk=', 'researcher': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172617', '11000235839'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elxd46C4wQqPnFu63fF5qxZk=', 'site': 'Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '上海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626458051_1.pdf?1710270821000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626458051_1.pdf?1710270821000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Market expectations for China’s economic data in March 2024 are ahead of schedule: economic expectations are stable and inflation expectations are slightly higher.', 'originalAuthor': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'originalContent': '主要观点2024年3月份经济数据公布将恢复常态，本次市场提前POLL（2月份数据未公布前进行的2024年3月份中国经济数据预测）表明，对中国经济运行格局的市场主流预期由前期的稳中偏软，变化为稳中向好：与预测当期数据（2023年12月份）相比，作为经济增长第一动力的投资增长预期略有上涨，表明经济���体运行稳中向好成为市场共识，消费由于基数效应有所下降，整体平稳态势不变；另外从预测数据的宽分布格局看，机构间分歧仍然较大，我们认为这体现了经济转型时期结构变化给微观主体造成不同影响的阶段特征。通胀预期保持平稳虽然1月份CPI和PPI延续了“双负”状态，且程度加深，但市场主流预期并没有形成通缩深化的预期：2024年3月份CPI同比增速（%）预测分布区间为（-0.6,0.8），预期的中值和均值分别为0.3和0.2，表明消费价格回升是市场主流预期；主流预期认为PPI同比增速仍保持平稳。我们一直认为，受基数效应影响，未来CPI同比数据或持续处于低位运行状态，PPI则延续降幅缓慢收窄态势。2月份真实物价数据公布后，市场整体对物价运行基准水平应有下移，但运行趋势（平稳中缓回升）预期应保持不变。我们认为，中国消费价格有着较为明显的季节性波动规律，从环比价格变动看，中国物价运行并未陷入通缩态势，受基数效应影响，1月CPI同比降幅有所扩大，但并不意味着通缩态势形成，价格运行比较平稳；工业品价格受大宗商品价格低迷影响，延续低迷态势。经济平稳中货币增长预期稳中偏降对工业、投资和消费的增速预期中值显示，市场整体认为经济运行整体将呈现稳中趋升态势；经济回暖下货币政策宽松格局或逐渐退出，从市场预期的中值和均值看，稳中趋降成为货币增长的市场主流预期。我们一直认为，经济平稳中的通胀下行走势，或带来货币增速的后撤；价格运行稳中偏低的态势，也为宽松货币政策创造了空间，预计1-2Q内调降回购利率5BP的降息举措或有发生、2-3Q内降准25BP也是大概率事件。我们认为，随着中国经济运行的国内外环境改变，推动融资成本下行的降准、降息等政策工具仍将延续。综合来看，我们认为，在政策激励和经济韧性影响下，中国经济运行平稳态势不变，随着政策效应逐渐呈现，2024年中国经济和资本市场运行或将延续双回暖格局。我们认为，未来“宏观平稳、微观改善”的宏观运行趋势，将为资本市场的走稳回暖奠定坚实基础。风险提示俄乌冲突扩大化，国际金融形势改变；中国通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。', 'content': 'The main point is that the release of economic data in March 2024 will return to normal. The market\\'s early POLL (forecast of China\\'s economic data in March 2024 conducted before the February data is released) shows that the mainstream market expectations for China\\'s economic operation pattern have changed from the previous ones. Stable but moderately soft, changing to stable but improving: Compared with the forecast data for the current period (December 2023), investment growth expectations, which are the first driving force for economic growth, have increased slightly, indicating that the overall economic operation is stable and improving, which has become the market consensus. , consumption has declined due to the base effect, and the overall stable trend remains unchanged; in addition, judging from the wide distribution pattern of the forecast data, the differences between institutions are still large. We believe that this reflects the stage in which structural changes have different impacts on micro entities during the economic transition period. feature. Inflation expectations remain stable. Although CPI and PPI continued to be \"double negative\" in January and deepened, the mainstream market expectations did not form expectations of deepening deflation: the forecast distribution range of CPI year-on-year growth rate (%) in March 2024 is ( -0.6, 0.8), the expected median and mean values \\u200b\\u200bare 0.3 and 0.2 respectively, indicating that a rebound in consumer prices is the mainstream expectation of the market; the mainstream expectation is that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will remain stable. We have always believed that due to the base effect, future CPI year-on-year data may continue to be at a low level, while PPI will continue to decline and slowly narrow. After the release of real price data in February, the market as a whole should expect the benchmark level of price operations to move downwards, but the operating trend (stable and moderate recovery) is expected to remain unchanged. We believe that China\\'s consumer prices have relatively obvious seasonal fluctuations. Judging from month-on-month price changes, China\\'s price movement has not fallen into a deflationary trend. Affected by the base effect, the year-on-year decline in CPI in January has expanded, but it does not mean deflation. A trend has been formed, and the price operation is relatively stable; the price of industrial products is affected by the downturn in commodity prices and continues to be in a downturn. The economy is stable and currency growth is expected to be stable but slightly lower. The median growth expectations for industry, investment and consumption show that the market as a whole believes that the overall economic operation will show a stable and upward trend; as the economy picks up, the easing pattern of monetary policy may gradually exit, from Looking at the median and average market expectations, stable and downward trends have become the mainstream market expectations for currency growth. We have always believed that the downward trend of inflation in a stable economy may bring about a retreat in monetary growth; the stable and low price trend has also created space for loose monetary policy, and it is expected that the repurchase rate will be lowered in 1-2Q. A 5BP interest rate cut may occur, and a 25BP RRR cut within 2-3Q is also a high probability event. We believe that as the domestic and international environment for China\\'s economic operation changes, policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts that promote downward financing costs will continue. Taken together, we believe that under the influence of policy incentives and economic resilience, China\\'s economic performance will remain stable. As the policy effects gradually emerge, China\\'s economy and capital market operations may continue the double recovery pattern in 2024. We believe that the future macro operation trend of \"macro stability and micro improvement\" will lay a solid foundation for the stabilization and recovery of the capital market. Risks include the expansion of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and changes in the international financial situation; China\\'s inflation has risen beyond expectations, and China\\'s monetary policy has changed beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('23836b0d-75e0-5a50-a109-862fde53e3bf'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6964735463261604, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'T4L2EU5GO0S3MDC552NFG6CB9BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:39:40 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'T4L2EU5GO0S3MDC552NFG6CB9BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f26b4c6d-dc62-5b76-8827-9d441ee42651'), 'title': 'Macro Research: Summary and Review of 2024 Fiscal Series Outlook', 'author': 'Zhang Jun ,Nie Tianqi', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el0ye6+YpWgqNdRemU8K+x3o=', 'researcher': '章俊,聂天奇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000450636'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el0ye6+YpWgqNdRemU8K+x3o=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626456991_1.pdf?1710273714000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626456991_1.pdf?1710273714000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Research: Summary and Review of 2024 Fiscal Series Outlook', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,聂天奇', 'originalContent': '核心观点：伴随今年财政预算草案的发布，2024年财政政策的基调和方向基本“尘埃落定”。银河宏观团队自去年年底便开始密切关注财政政策的变化，实际上从2023年到2024年，财政政策逻辑的确发生了显著调整，从“一揽子化债”到“新增万亿国债”再到“超长期特别国债”，新一轮积极财政政策如期而至，财政逆周期调节和结构性调整的工具和方向均发生了系统性变化。为此，我们对财政政策展望的系列报告进行再次梳理和总结，回答几个关键问题。对于之前对财政关注不多的投资者，相信通过该篇报告可以对2024年财政政策变化有一个全面了解。一、如何理解新一轮“积极财政”的政策内涵？财政作为宏观调控和国家治理的支柱，在不同时期有不同使命任务。读懂财政政策，首先要准确把握政策内涵。我们在《2024年财政政策展望：积极财政的新内涵》一文中回顾了过去三轮积极财政政策背后的逻辑演变，特别是2023年逆周期回归的现实原因。在此基础上，我们提出：鉴于当前宏观经济形势发生了重要转变，2024年或将是新一轮积极财政“元年”，新内涵将兼顾“防风险”与“稳增长”，执行上具备“相机抉择”的动态选择。与之对应的政策工具便是“化债一揽子政策”及超长期特别国债。二、2024年地方化债可能以何种方式推进？我国先后进行过三轮化债，但为何隐形债务问题总是“野火烧不尽”？对此，我们在《从国际经验看化解中国地方债务的出路》一文中详细分析了债务风险的形成机制：由于地方政府基于���土地财政”有了不受预算约束的自主融资能力，使得过去我国面临类似于欧洲“货币统一、财权独立”的矛盾困境。但有别于欧元区无法统一财政的先天缺陷，中国可以通过加强中央统筹的财政体制来逐步控制和化解地方政府债务风险。其次，我们在《2024年地方化债何去何从？》一文中又对2024年地方化债的背景进行了分析：过去高风险地区的转移支付、债务、投资增长显著高于其人口流入、GDP占比，是一种不可持续的基建和公共服务过剩，未来“钱随人走”将是财政政策调整的重要方向。三、如何看待超长期特别国债？如果说财政政策有“热搜榜”，超长期特别国债无疑是2024年的头条。为何要发行特别国债，怎么发，对经济和市场又会有那些影响？为回答上述问题，我们在春节前发布的《如何看待超长期特别国债？》一文中对超长期政府债的历史和存量结构进行了详细分析，同时对于发行超长期特别国债的政策意图、审批节点、发行方式、流动性影响进行了预测和推演。四、如何理解今年3%赤字率目标，以及财政政策有何转变？去年10月份新增万亿国债之后，预算赤字率达到3.8%，为此市场对于今年赤字率的普遍预期在3.5%左右，而政府工作报告中3%的赤字率目标是否表达了财政政策的相对克制？我们在《如何理解3%赤字率目标？》一文中分析：3%的目标赤字率更多体现的是对于政府行政开支的财政约束，而非政策力度的紧缩，2024年“适度加力”的财政力度并未弱于去年。虽然财政政策力度未有减弱，但从今年财政预算草案中可以看出政策支持方向及方式均有所转变。我们在《预算草案的五大焦点》一文中，列举了了几处关键变化：一是财政首要支持政策转向经济转型和科技创新；二是“大国大城”战略下财政和基建转向人口流入的发达经济带；三是广义财政显著扩张，但主体转向中央负债；四是土地收入目标背后隐含了中央对于地产的预期趋于平稳；五是国有资本经营预算反映地方“盘活存量”压力大幅缓解。', 'content': 'Core point of view: With the release of this year\\'s fiscal budget draft, the tone and direction of fiscal policy in 2024 have basically \"settled.\" The Galaxy Macro team has been paying close attention to changes in fiscal policy since the end of last year. In fact, from 2023 to 2024, the logic of fiscal policy has indeed undergone significant adjustments, from \"a package of debt\" to \"new trillions of national debt\" to \"Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds\" and a new round of proactive fiscal policies have arrived as scheduled, and the tools and directions of fiscal countercyclical adjustments and structural adjustments have undergone systematic changes. To this end, we have once again sorted out and summarized the series of reports on fiscal policy outlook to answer several key questions. For investors who have not paid much attention to finance before, I believe that this report can provide a comprehensive understanding of the changes in fiscal policy in 2024. 1. How to understand the policy connotation of the new round of “active finance”? As the pillar of macro-control and national governance, finance has different missions and tasks in different periods. To understand fiscal policy, we must first accurately grasp the policy connotation. In the article \"Fiscal Policy Outlook 2024: The New Connotation of Active Fiscal Policy\", we reviewed the logical evolution behind the past three rounds of active fiscal policies, especially the practical reasons for the countercyclical return in 2023. On this basis, we propose: In view of the important changes that have taken place in the current macroeconomic situation, 2024 may be the \"first year\" of a new round of proactive fiscal policy. The new connotation will take into account \"risk prevention\" and \"stabilizing growth\", and the implementation will be qualified. Dynamic selection of \"camera selection\". The corresponding policy tools are the \"debt reduction package\" and ultra-long-term special government bonds. 2. In what ways may localized bonds be promoted in 2024? Our country has carried out three rounds of debt reduction, but why is the hidden debt problem always \"wildfire burning\"? In this regard, we analyzed the formation mechanism of debt risk in detail in the article \"The Way to Resolve China\\'s Local Debt from International Experience\": Because local governments have independent financing capabilities without budget constraints based on \"land finance\", China\\'s past It faces a contradictory dilemma similar to Europe\\'s \"monetary unity and financial independence\". But unlike the Eurozone, which has the inherent flaw of being unable to unify its finances, China can gradually control and resolve local government debt risks by strengthening its centrally coordinated fiscal system. Secondly, we discussed in \"Where Will Localized Debt Go in 2024?\" \"The article also analyzes the background of localized debt in 2024: in the past, the growth of transfer payments, debt, and investment in high-risk areas were significantly higher than their population inflow and GDP ratio, which is an unsustainable infrastructure and public services In the future, \"money follows people\" will be an important direction for fiscal policy adjustment. 3. How do you view ultra-long-term special treasury bonds? If there is a \"hot search list\" for fiscal policy, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will undoubtedly be the headline in 2024. Why is it necessary to issue special treasury bonds, how to issue them, and what impact will it have on the economy and market? In order to answer the above questions, we released before the Spring Festival \"How to treat ultra-long-term special treasury bonds?\" \"The article provides a detailed analysis of the history and stock structure of ultra-long-term government bonds, and also predicts and deduce the policy intentions, approval nodes, issuance methods, and liquidity impacts of the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds. 4. How to understand this year’s 3% deficit ratio target and any changes in fiscal policy? After the trillions of new national debts were added in October last year, the budget deficit rate reached 3.8%. For this reason, the market\\'s general expectation for this year\\'s deficit rate is around 3.5%. Does the 3% deficit rate target in the government work report express the relative importance of fiscal policy? restraint? We are in \"How to Understand the 3% Deficit Ratio Target?\" Analysis in the article: The target deficit rate of 3% reflects more of the fiscal constraints on government administrative expenditures rather than the tightening of policy intensity. The \"moderate increase\" of fiscal intensity in 2024 is not weaker than last year. Although the intensity of fiscal policy has not weakened, it can be seen from this year\\'s fiscal budget draft that the direction and method of policy support have changed. In the article \"Five Focuses of the Budget Draft\", we listed several key changes: first, the primary fiscal support policy shifts to economic transformation and technological innovation; second, under the \"big country, big city\" strategy, fiscal and infrastructure shifts to developed economies with population inflows. The third is that broad fiscal expansion has significantly expanded, but the main body has turned to the central government\\'s liabilities; fourth, the land revenue target implies that the central government\\'s expectations for real estate have stabilized; fifth, the state-owned capital operating budget reflects that the pressure on local governments to \"revitalize stock\" has been significantly relieved.', 'authorid': UUID('bd8b59b5-0702-5498-bd36-917d7e164bee'), 'sentimentScore': 0.27849033288657665, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '0KQMBG3D0P00E52G7EOA1GJ577VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:39:43 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '0KQMBG3D0P00E52G7EOA1GJ577VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('82ba235d-b9c1-5e3f-a086-d5f677ef932f'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Comments: Five Signals of the 2024 Plan Report', 'author': 'He Ning', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elzYAhLWmj9qxb2MfR+xhe3g=', 'researcher': '何宁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elzYAhLWmj9qxb2MfR+xhe3g=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626455583_1.pdf?1710266208000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626455583_1.pdf?1710266208000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Comments: Five Signals of the 2024 Plan Report', 'originalAuthor': '何宁', 'originalContent': '事件：3月5日，国家发改委作《关于2023年国民经济和社会发展计划执行情况与2024年国民经济和社会发展计划草案的报告》，以下简称“《计划报告》”。价格预期目标或隐含公用事业及资源品价格改革2024年或开展公用事业及资源品价格改革，或影响物价水平。《计划报告》在2024年居民CPI目标段落提出，2024年3%的CPI目标“为加大宏观政策调控力度和深化价格改革留有一定余地”，《计划报告》在改革篇章也提及“有序推进水电气热等公用事业和公共服务价格改革”。我们提示，公用事业及资源品价格改革或影响物价水平：一则水电气热等公用事业是居民消费支出的一部分，其价格变动会直接影响CPI；二则水电燃气等价格变动还将影响其他生产性行业尤其是中上游高耗能行业的运行成本，从而通过PPI间接向CPI传导。此外，公用事业产品价格机制调整一方面会拉动居民消费指数上行，另一方面或为政府财政收入来源打开新的可能性。货币政策仍有空间，融资供给将向高质量发展倾斜降准降息仍可期，宽货币或推动物价温和回升。《计划报告》中CPI目标“为加大宏观政策调控力度和深化价格改革留有一定余地”、潘行长部长记者会讲话中“央行将把维护价格稳定、推动价格温和回升作为货币政策的重要考量”均指向宽货币或成为推动物价温和回升的因素之一。我们认为2024年货币政策仍有宽松空间，央行或采取降准、降息等手段推动社会融资成本下行。新质生产力的工作抓手：制造业设立能耗标准；加大前沿科技领域投入《计划报告》中具体阐明了推进现代化产业体系建设和加快形成新质生产力的六项重点工作。有两个主要关注点：1、制造业技改将以技术、能耗标准为牵引。在传统产业转型和升级方面，《计划报告》强调“实施制造业核心竞争力提升行动、技术改造升级工程”。结合后文中“以提高技术、能耗、排放等标准为牵引，推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造”，我们认为本轮制造业更新改造的基础或是设立技术或能耗类标准，从而驱动不符合标准的企业提高技术水平或降低设备能耗。2、新兴和未来产业多为前沿硬科技领域。《计划报告》明确新兴产业包括新能源汽车、生物制造、商业航天、新材料、低空经济等；而未来产业的含义涵盖量子技术、生命科学、人工智能、氢能、核聚变等新赛道和新能源产业。改革：财税体制、民营经济、市场体系改革为重点1、新一轮财税体制改革或涉及完善优化地方税和转移支付体系。《计划报告》指出，“谋划新一轮财税体制改革，研究健全地方税体系，研究建立完善促进高质量发展的转移支付激励约束机制”。2024年财政预算草案也同样指出“谋划新一轮财税体制改革”，具体包括“研究健全地方税体系，推动消费税改革，完善增值税制度”等。对比2023年财政预算草案只是“进一步深化财税体制改革”，且关于制度改革的表述较少。我们认为，2024年财税制度领域的改革或着眼于完善政府税收体系，例如消费税、房地产税等税收的改革，以及完善政府间转移支付制度、中央和地方财权和事权的划分等。2、《计划报告》在改革章节重点提到了国企和民企的改革、深化市场体系改革、深化重点领域改革、优化营商环境四个方面。区域发展：促进区域战略间联动融合发展《计划报告》针对区域协调发展、优化区域经济布局展开较多笔墨，“区域战略融合发展先行探索”方面，具体举措包括京津冀、长江经济带、粤港澳大湾区、长三角、西部开发等多个区域产业发展规划。新型城镇化方面，推动城镇化率低且人口规模大的市县协调推进新型工业化城镇化，加快培育特色优势产业集群，增强县城综合承载能力。风险提示：经济超预期下行；政策执行力度不及预期。', 'content': 'Event: On March 5, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the \"Report on the Implementation of the National Economic and Social Development Plan in 2023 and the Draft National Economic and Social Development Plan in 2024\", hereinafter referred to as the \"Plan Report\". The expected price target may imply price reform of public utilities and resource products in 2024, which may affect the price level. The \"Plan Report\" states in the 2024 resident CPI target paragraph that the 3% CPI target in 2024 \"leaves some room for increasing macro-policy control and deepening price reform.\" The \"Plan Report\" also mentions in the reform chapter that \"there is We will advance the price reform of public utilities and public services such as water, electricity, and heating in an orderly manner.” We remind that the price reform of public utilities and resource products may affect the price level: First, public utilities such as water, electricity, and heating are part of residents’ consumption expenditures, and their price changes will directly affect CPI; second, price changes such as water, electricity, and gas will also affect other production The operating costs of the sex industry, especially the high energy-consuming industries in the middle and upper reaches, are indirectly transmitted to CPI through PPI. In addition, adjustments to the price mechanism for public utility products will, on the one hand, drive up the household consumption index, and on the other hand, may open up new possibilities for government revenue sources. There is still room for monetary policy, financing supply will be tilted towards high-quality development, and interest rate cuts are still expected. Easing money may promote a moderate recovery in prices. The CPI target in the \"Plan Report\" \"leaves some room for increasing macroeconomic policy control and deepening price reform\", and in Governor Pan\\'s speech at the press conference, \"the central bank will regard maintaining price stability and promoting a moderate price recovery as an important consideration in monetary policy.\" All point to loose money as one of the factors driving a modest recovery in prices. We believe that there is still room for easing monetary policy in 2024, and the central bank may take measures such as lowering reserve requirements and interest rates to drive down social financing costs. The starting points for new quality productivity: setting energy consumption standards in the manufacturing industry; increasing investment in cutting-edge science and technology. The \"Plan Report\" specifically clarifies six key tasks to promote the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerate the formation of new quality productivity. There are two main concerns: 1. The technological transformation of the manufacturing industry will be driven by technology and energy consumption standards. In terms of the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, the \"Plan Report\" emphasizes \"implementing actions to enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and technological transformation and upgrading projects.\" Combined with the following article’s “driven by improving technology, energy consumption, emission and other standards to promote the update and technological transformation of various production equipment and service equipment”, we believe that the basis for this round of manufacturing renewal and transformation may be the establishment of technology or energy consumption standards , thereby driving companies that do not meet the standards to improve their technical level or reduce equipment energy consumption. 2. Emerging and future industries are mostly in cutting-edge hard technology fields. The \"Plan Report\" clarifies that emerging industries include new energy vehicles, biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, new materials, low-altitude economy, etc.; and the meaning of future industries covers quantum technology, life sciences, artificial intelligence, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion and other new tracks and New energy industry. Reform: Focus on the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, private economy, and market system. 1. The new round of fiscal and taxation system reform may involve improving and optimizing the local tax and transfer payment system. The \"Plan Report\" states, \"Plan a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform, study and improve the local tax system, and study and establish a transfer payment incentive and restraint mechanism to promote high-quality development.\" The 2024 fiscal budget draft also points out \"planning a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform\", which specifically includes \"research and improvement of the local tax system, promote consumption tax reform, and improve the value-added tax system\". In contrast, the 2023 fiscal budget draft only \"further deepens the reform of the fiscal and taxation system\" and has less statements about system reform. We believe that reforms in the fiscal and taxation system in 2024 may focus on improving the government tax system, such as the reform of consumption tax, real estate tax and other taxes, as well as improving the intergovernmental transfer payment system and the division of central and local financial and administrative powers. 2. In the reform chapter, the \"Plan Report\" focuses on four aspects: the reform of state-owned and private enterprises, deepening the reform of the market system, deepening the reform of key areas, and optimizing the business environment. Regional development: Promote the linkage and integrated development of regional strategies. The \"Plan Report\" focuses on coordinated regional development and optimizing regional economic layout. In terms of \"first exploration of regional strategic integrated development\", specific measures include Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Guangdong Industrial development plans for multiple regions including the Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Yangtze River Delta, and Western Development. In terms of new urbanization, we will promote cities and counties with low urbanization rates and large populations to coordinate the promotion of new industrialization and urbanization, accelerate the cultivation of characteristic and advantageous industrial clusters, and enhance the comprehensive carrying capacity of counties. Risk warning: The economy declines more than expected; policy implementation is less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('52a5389c-6434-575d-ad8f-dccb9d09cd11'), 'sentimentScore': -0.10836903005838394, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'UOIANNH3KBAPO3NL8CT3EO4PR7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:39:46 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'UOIANNH3KBAPO3NL8CT3EO4PR7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('657c3067-14a8-5214-92a6-0dca61cf2aff'), 'title': 'Major Assets Weekly Report No. 20: High Dividend Market, Where to Go in the Future?', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Jia Luxi, Li Xinyue', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el/zMtPbrsAvuhfjt4L4ZSwI=', 'researcher': '赵伟,贾璐熙,李欣越', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000456132', '11000446746'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el/zMtPbrsAvuhfjt4L4ZSwI=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626455199_1.pdf?1710265469000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626455199_1.pdf?1710265469000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Major Assets Weekly Report No. 20: High Dividend Market, Where to Go in the Future?', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,贾璐熙,李欣越', 'originalContent': '2023年11月20日以来，高股息板块“异军突起”。当下行情演绎到的阶段、与过往的异同？本文分析，供参考。热点思考：高股息行情，未来向何处去？一问：高股息缘何“异军突起”？低迷情绪下的“防御”属性，煤炭等产业结构的优化2021年以来，高股息板块持续占优；2023年12月以来，中证红利更是“异军突起”。本轮高股息板块的相对占优始于2021年；截至2023年11月19日，中证红利指数震荡上涨8.1%、而万得全A则大跌13.9%。2023年11月20日以来，高股息的优势进一步“凸显”，在万得全A下跌7.0%的背景下，中证红利指数继续大涨了10.9%。历史回溯来看，高股息行情多在“熊市”占优；2021年以来的高股息行情同样发生在相对弱势的市场环境中，但行业结构与基本面环境有一定变化。第一，区别于过往银行、家用电器等行业驱动的高股息行情，本轮中受益于产业格局优化的煤炭表现更为突出。第二，本轮行情受益于宽松流动性环境下“资金空转”，高股息“类债”逻辑更为突出。二问：当下高股息行情能延续吗？当前拥挤度并不高，有望受益增量资金与经济复苏当下，高股息持仓和成交拥挤度均未达极致水平，中证红利指数估值也处过去10年偏低水平，仍有一定修复空间。1）截至2023年6月30日，公募持仓中证红利成分股权重仅5.0%、低配比例达3.3%。2）2024年前2月，中证红利平均成交占比仅4.9%，处过去10年40%分位。3）截至3月8日，中证红利PE为过去10年的35%分位、相对偏低。向后看，保险类增量资金有望强化高股息行情，高股息的“顺周期”特征也将受益于经济的企稳复苏。一方面，经验显示，增量资金对于强势板块具有强化甚至决定性的影响；当下保险类资金权益仓位占比较低，在会计准则调整后或具有较高增配空间。另一方面，当下高股息行业中“顺周期”占比较高，经济企稳复苏的逻辑也构成一定利好。三问：后续板块内部可能的分化？部分行业拥挤度偏高，关注高分红率、高ROE两条逻辑链当下，煤炭、银行、石油石化股息率最高，其中煤炭等行业拥挤度、估值相对偏高，后续行情持续性或有所减弱。截至3月11日，银行与煤炭交易相对拥挤，拥挤度分处历史82%、67%分位数；估值层面，煤炭与石油石化过去10年PE历史分位数，分列32个申万一级行业第7、8，相对偏高。拥挤度与估值相对偏高，或约束煤炭等行业上行空间。若高股息策略进一步扩散，可以关注高分红率与高ROE两条逻辑链。高分红逻辑：股息率取决于每股盈利和股利支付率，交运、公用事业和纺服盈利增速较快，且产业生命周期处于成熟或后成熟期，预计未来2年股息率仍有较大提升空间。高ROE逻辑：每股盈利最终取决于ROE，从ROE较高的行业来看，食品饮料和家用电器行业或将相对受益。周度回顾：全球股指涨跌分化，黄金价格创历史新高（2024/03/04-2024/03/08）股票市场：发达国家股指多数下跌，新兴市场股指多数上涨。发达国家股指，纳斯达克指数下跌1.2%，法国CAC40上涨1.2%；新兴市场股指，韩国综合指数上涨1.4%，泰国SET指数上涨1.4%，上证指数上涨0.6%。债券市场：发达国家10年期国��收益率多数下跌。美国10年期国债收益率下行10bp至4.09%，德国10年期国债收益率下行14bp至2.28%，法国10年期国债收益率下行18bp至2.71%，英国国债收益率下行8bp至4.03%。外汇市场：美元指数下行,人民币兑美元小幅升值。美元指数下行1%至102.7，美元兑人民币贬值0.2%，美元兑在岸人民币和离岸人民币均为7.2。欧元兑美元升值0.9%，英镑兑美元升值1.5%；主要新兴市场兑美元多数下跌。商品市场：农产品全线上涨，原油价格下跌。豆粕上涨4.8%，WTI原油价格下跌2.5%，受美国降息预期以及全球央行购金影响，黄金价格创历史新高，升至2177.8美元/盎司；通胀预期降至2.3%，10Y美债实际收益率降至1.8%。风险提示成长风格走强；拥挤度进一步提升；潜在高股息行业不及预期', 'content': 'Since November 20, 2023, the high-dividend sector has \"suddenly emerged.\" What stage has the current market reached, and what are the similarities and differences with the past? This article is analyzed for reference. Hot thoughts: High dividend market, where will it go in the future? Question: Why did high dividends suddenly emerge? The \"defensive\" attribute under the downturn and the optimization of industrial structures such as coal. Since 2021, the high-dividend sector has continued to dominate; since December 2023, CSI dividends have become a \"sudden rise\". The relative dominance of the high-dividend sector in this round began in 2021; as of November 19, 2023, the CSI Dividend Index fluctuated and rose by 8.1%, while Wind Quan A plummeted by 13.9%. Since November 20, 2023, the advantages of high dividends have been further \"prominent\". Against the background of Wind Quan A falling 7.0%, the CSI Dividend Index has continued to rise by 10.9%. Looking back at history, high dividend markets mostly dominate in \"bear markets\"; high dividend markets since 2021 also occur in a relatively weak market environment, but there are certain changes in the industry structure and fundamental environment. First, unlike the high dividend market driven by banks, household appliances and other industries in the past, coal, which has benefited from the optimization of the industrial structure, has performed more prominently in this round. Second, the current market situation has benefited from the \"idle flow of funds\" in the loose liquidity environment, and the \"debt-like\" logic of high dividends has become more prominent. Second question: Can the current high dividend market continue? The current congestion level is not high, and it is expected to benefit from the incremental funds and economic recovery. At present, high dividend holdings and transaction congestion have not reached the extreme level. The valuation of the CSI Dividend Index is also at the low level of the past 10 years, and there is still some room for repair. . 1) As of June 30, 2023, the weight of CSI dividend component stocks held by public offerings is only 5.0%, and the underweight ratio reaches 3.3%. 2) In the first two months of 2024, the average transaction proportion of CSI dividends was only 4.9%, which was at the 40% percentile in the past 10 years. 3) As of March 8, CSI Dividend PE was at the 35% level in the past 10 years, which is relatively low. Looking backward, incremental insurance funds are expected to strengthen the market for high dividends, and the \"procyclical\" characteristics of high dividends will also benefit from the stabilization and recovery of the economy. On the one hand, experience shows that incremental funds have a strengthening or even decisive impact on strong sectors; the current proportion of insurance fund equity positions is relatively low, and there may be higher room for additional allocations after adjustments to accounting standards. On the other hand, the current proportion of \"procyclical\" industries in high-dividend industries is relatively high, and the logic of economic stabilization and recovery also constitutes a certain benefit. Third question: What are the possible differentiations within the sector in the future? Some industries are highly crowded and focus on the two logical chains of high dividend rate and high ROE. At present, coal, banking, and petroleum and petrochemicals have the highest dividend rates. Among them, coal and other industries are relatively crowded and have relatively high valuations. The subsequent market may be sustainable. weaken. As of March 11, banking and coal transactions were relatively crowded, with congestion levels at the 82% and 67% historical quantiles; at the valuation level, the historical PE quantiles for coal and petroleum and petrochemicals in the past 10 years were ranked 32 Shenwan. The first-level industry ranks 7th and 8th, which is relatively high. The relatively high congestion and valuation may limit the upside potential of industries such as coal. If high dividend strategies are further spread, you can focus on the two logical chains of high dividend rate and high ROE. High dividend logic: The dividend rate depends on the earnings per share and the dividend payout rate. The profits of transportation, public utilities and textile clothing are growing rapidly, and the industry life cycle is in a mature or post-mature stage. It is expected that the dividend rate will still be relatively high in the next two years. Big room for improvement. High ROE logic: Earnings per share ultimately depends on ROE. From the perspective of industries with higher ROE, the food and beverage and household appliance industries may benefit relatively. Weekly review: Global stock indexes rose and fell, and the price of gold hit a record high (2024/03/04-2024/03/08) Stock market: Most stock indexes in developed countries fell, while most stock indexes in emerging markets rose. Developed country stock indexes, the Nasdaq fell 1.2%, France\\'s CAC40 rose 1.2%; emerging market stock indexes, South Korea\\'s Composite Index rose 1.4%, Thailand\\'s SET Index rose 1.4%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.6%. Bond market: Most 10-year government bond yields in developed countries fell. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 10bp to 4.09%, the German 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 14bp to 2.28%, the French 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 18bp to 2.71%, and the British Treasury bond yield fell 8bp to 4.03%. Foreign exchange market: The U.S. dollar index fell, and the RMB appreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar. The US dollar index fell 1% to 102.7, the US dollar depreciated 0.2% against the RMB, and the US dollar against both onshore RMB and offshore RMB was 7.2. The euro appreciated 0.9% against the US dollar, and the pound appreciated 1.5% against the US dollar; most major emerging markets fell against the US dollar. Commodity market: Agricultural products rose across the board, while crude oil prices fell. Soybean meal rose 4.8%, while WTI crude oil prices fell 2.5%. Affected by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and gold purchases by global central banks, gold prices hit a record high, rising to $2,177.8 per ounce; inflation expectations fell to 2.3%, and the actual yield on 10Y U.S. Treasury bonds fell. to 1.8%. Risk reminder: growth style is strengthening; congestion is further increasing; potential high-dividend industries are lower than expected', 'authorid': UUID('6120e22e-df37-5105-8a6c-dafce37f539a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.015997406095266342, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'G142S34AOEJJM0NPSBSUSJPBVBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:39:49 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'G142S34AOEJJM0NPSBSUSJPBVBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('26a27727-df59-5999-b39a-6197a1db3d06'), 'title': 'Interpretation of import and export data from January to February: The low base effect appears, and the import and export data has a \"good start\"', 'author': 'Shen Xiayi', 'orgName': '联储证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80036123', 'orgSName': '联储证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elyYr/SFxz7/abFaYFMKKx+E=', 'researcher': '沈夏宜', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000444136'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elyYr/SFxz7/abFaYFMKKx+E=', 'site': 'Fed Securities, Inc.', 'originalSite': '联储证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626455197_1.pdf?1710266047000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626455197_1.pdf?1710266047000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of import and export data from January to February: The low base effect appears, and the import and export data has a \"good start\"', 'originalAuthor': '沈夏宜', 'originalContent': '投资要点：1-2月进出口数据超预期改善，可能系春节较晚所致。以美元计价，1-2月出口总值为5,280.14亿美元，同比上升7.0%；进口总值为为4,028.51亿美元，同比微增3.5%。以人民币计价，1-2月出口总值为37,523.24亿元，同比增长10.2%，；进口总值为28,614.63亿元，同比增加6.7%。2023年春节较早，叠加疫情放开早期生产和需求恢复较慢，导致2023年同期进出口数据明显下滑。对拉丁美洲和非洲出口显著增长，消费品和机电产品出口均有所改善。1-2月，我国对美国、欧盟和东盟出口基本保持稳定，同比增长分别为2.59%、-2.30%和0.06%；对拉丁美洲和非洲出口显著增长，同比增长分别为19.00%和15.47%，其中对巴西出口同比大幅增长33.8%。商品方面，消费品显著改善，同比涨幅均为两位数；机电产品出口金额为3,119.72亿美元，同比增长8.5%，为同期次高，仅次于2022年，其中通用机械设备出口110.26亿美元，同比大幅增长32.0%，创同期新高。对荷兰和巴西进口快速增长，电子��业进口有所回暖。1-2月，我国对主要区域的进口情况出现分化，对美国、欧盟和日本进口有所下滑，其中，对荷兰进口在对欧盟进口整体下滑的情况下，逆势增长22.64%；对东盟、韩国、俄罗斯、拉丁美洲和非洲进口同比增长，其中，巴西作为中国拉丁美洲最重要的贸易伙伴，同比增长35.40%。商品方面，机电产品和高新技术产品进口景气度回升，同比增长7.70%和11.90%，可能系电子行业有所回暖叠加去年同期低基数所致。对3月进出口表现的预期不宜过分乐观，全年出口有望逐季改善。1-2月进出口数据的超预期改善，更多的是去年同期低基数效应所致，经济复苏情况仍需进一步观察。全年来看，外需韧性仍在，以巴西为代表的拉丁美洲与中国贸易持续加深，出口快速增长，有望成为支撑中国出口的新增长点。风险提示：海外经济不及预期、“一带一路”推进不及预期、中美摩擦升级风险、地缘政治风险等', 'content': \"Investment points: The import and export data from January to February improved beyond expectations, which may be due to the late Spring Festival. In US dollars, the total export value from January to February was US$528.014 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%; the total import value was US$402.851 billion, a slight increase of 3.5% year-on-year. In RMB terms, the total export value from January to February was 3,752.324 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%; the total import value was 2,861.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The Spring Festival in 2023 is early, and the early release of the epidemic and the slow recovery of demand have led to a significant decline in import and export data in the same period of 2023. Exports to Latin America and Africa increased significantly, and exports of consumer goods and mechanical and electrical products improved. From January to February, China's exports to the United States, the European Union and ASEAN remained basically stable, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.59%, -2.30% and 0.06% respectively; exports to Latin America and Africa increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.00% and 15.47% respectively. , among which exports to Brazil increased significantly by 33.8% year-on-year. In terms of commodities, consumer goods improved significantly, with double-digit year-on-year increases; the export value of mechanical and electrical products was US$311.972 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, the second highest in the same period, second only to 2022, of which general machinery and equipment exports were US$11.026 billion. A significant year-on-year increase of 32.0%, a new high for the same period. Imports from the Netherlands and Brazil have grown rapidly, and imports from the electronics industry have picked up. From January to February, China's imports from major regions diverged, with imports from the United States, the European Union and Japan declining. Among them, imports from the Netherlands bucked the trend and increased by 22.64% despite the overall decline in imports from the EU; imports from ASEAN, Imports from South Korea, Russia, Latin America and Africa increased year-on-year. Among them, Brazil, China's most important trading partner in Latin America, increased by 35.40% year-on-year. In terms of commodities, the import boom of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products rebounded, with year-on-year growth of 7.70% and 11.90%, which may be due to the rebound in the electronics industry and the low base in the same period last year. Expectations for import and export performance in March should not be overly optimistic. Exports throughout the year are expected to improve quarter by quarter. The unexpected improvement in import and export data from January to February is more due to the low base effect in the same period last year, and the economic recovery still needs further observation. Throughout the year, the resilience of external demand remains. Trade between Latin America and China, represented by Brazil, continues to deepen and exports grow rapidly, which is expected to become a new growth point supporting China's exports. Risk warning: Overseas economy falls short of expectations, “Belt and Road” progress falls short of expectations, risks of escalating Sino-US frictions, geopolitical risks, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('048abd73-2d86-5b69-b228-9c48baf20f63'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9294358864426613, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '6370M8MNEDHQ42COUOCQ794VTRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:39:52 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '6370M8MNEDHQ42COUOCQ794VTRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7efa2cf4-a7d8-5594-95f0-2f6d8a2a6bbe'), 'title': 'Comments on foreign trade data from January to February 2024: Foreign trade revives and high surplus continues', 'author': 'Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli', 'orgName': '上海证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000155', 'orgSName': '上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elyL1JMuWnvRiD8J43/FMguk=', 'researcher': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172617', '11000235839'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elyL1JMuWnvRiD8J43/FMguk=', 'site': 'Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '上海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626455195_1.pdf?1710265154000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626455195_1.pdf?1710265154000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on foreign trade data from January to February 2024: Foreign trade revives and high surplus continues', 'originalAuthor': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'originalContent': '主要观点外贸开年双回升1-2月进出口双双回升，顺差扩张较快。出口方面，发达国家制造业景气度多数回落，外需偏软，但出口仍然维持了强韧。从出口国别来看，主要发达国家中除对日本出口下滑外，其余均保持了不同程度的增长或改善。从出口商品来看，劳动密集型产品均保持了较快增长；机电商品中除了手机和汽车外均有所回升，汽车高位回落，但仍维持了10%以上的增速。进口方面，从进口数量来看，主要进口商品增速除原油、铜以外以下降为主。虽然大宗商品、原材料进口有所下降，但机电产品增长加快，带动进口整体的回升。1-2月由于出口回升幅度更大，贸易顺差同比增长高达20.5%，高顺差得以延续。市场有望走稳回暖我们认为宏观环境变化为我国资本市场运行步入平稳回暖的新阶段奠定了基础。我们认为，在政策激励和经济韧性影响下，中国经济运行平稳态势不变，随着政策效应逐渐呈现，2024年中国经济和资本市场运行或将演绎双回暖格局。我们认为，未来“宏观平稳、微观改善”的宏观运行趋势，有利于资本市场走稳回暖。优势地位延续，高顺差得以保障出口重振，扭转了去年下半年以来持续下降的态势，企稳反弹，高顺差延续。我们认为外贸的走势也反映了中国经济在世界经济格局中的制造中心地位稳固态势已成，在国际经济竞争中的这种优势地位，在未来较长时期内仍将延续。因此未来外贸增长趋平，高顺差仍将延续。我们认为高货物顺差将有助于中国外储的稳定，不过由于中国货币基础货币投放能力待提升的局面没有改变，未来降准、降息仍可期待。风险提示俄乌冲突、中东冲突等地缘政治事件恶化，国际金融形势改变；中国通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。', 'content': 'Main points: Foreign trade rebounded at the beginning of the year. Imports and exports both rebounded from January to February, and the surplus expanded rapidly. In terms of exports, the manufacturing boom in most developed countries has declined and external demand has been soft, but exports have remained strong. From the perspective of exporting countries, except for the decline in exports to Japan, all major developed countries have maintained growth or improvement to varying degrees. From the perspective of export commodities, labor-intensive products have maintained rapid growth; mechanical and electrical products have rebounded except for mobile phones and automobiles, and automobiles have fallen back from highs, but still maintained a growth rate of more than 10%. In terms of imports, from the perspective of import quantity, the growth rate of major imported commodities, except crude oil and copper, mainly declined. Although imports of bulk commodities and raw materials have declined, the growth of mechanical and electrical products has accelerated, driving an overall rebound in imports. From January to February, due to a greater rebound in exports, the trade surplus increased by as much as 20.5% year-on-year, and the high surplus continued. The market is expected to stabilize and pick up. We believe that changes in the macro environment have laid the foundation for my country\\'s capital market to enter a new stage of steady recovery. We believe that under the influence of policy incentives and economic resilience, China\\'s economic performance remains stable. As the policy effects gradually emerge, China\\'s economy and capital market operations may perform a double recovery pattern in 2024. We believe that the future macro operation trend of \"macro stability and micro improvement\" will be conducive to the stabilization and recovery of the capital market. The dominant position continued, and the high surplus ensured the revitalization of exports, reversing the downward trend since the second half of last year. It stabilized and rebounded, and the high surplus continued. We believe that the trend of foreign trade also reflects that China\\'s economy has become a stable manufacturing center in the world economic structure. This advantageous position in international economic competition will continue for a long time to come. Therefore, foreign trade growth will level off in the future and high surpluses will continue. We believe that a high goods surplus will help stabilize China\\'s foreign reserves. However, as China\\'s monetary base currency injection capacity needs to be improved, future reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts can still be expected. Risks suggest that geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East conflict have worsened, and the international financial situation has changed; China\\'s inflation has risen beyond expectations, and China\\'s monetary policy has changed beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('23836b0d-75e0-5a50-a109-862fde53e3bf'), 'sentimentScore': 0.45586763322353363, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '38EM275QSB29DL0TM186IERH4RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:39:55 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '38EM275QSB29DL0TM186IERH4RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f12f7fee-e19b-5777-961a-994e77d0e617'), 'title': 'Weekly Economic Observation: The market’s pricing paradigm may continue', 'author': 'Yuan Fang , Shu Jiapei', 'orgName': '国投证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80084302', 'orgSName': '国投证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el9KR9zK9MdyZrXcDu0fUCbE=', 'researcher': '袁方,束加沛', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000337134', '11000370131'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el9KR9zK9MdyZrXcDu0fUCbE=', 'site': 'SDIC Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626451834_1.pdf?1710262087000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626451834_1.pdf?1710262087000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly Economic Observation: The market’s pricing paradigm may continue', 'originalAuthor': '袁方,束加沛', 'originalContent': '内容提要最新公布的贸易和通胀数据显示，我国内外需之间仍然存在分化。全球制造业的恢复有望继续推动我国出口活动温和回升，而房地产行业的减速对总需求的拖累或将延续。从市场定价来看，万科违约的风险短期缓解，压力的扩散被阶段性阻断，市场的担忧情绪缓和，二次探底的风险得到管控。不过权益市场能否转化为趋势上涨，仍然需要基本面信号的确认，这无疑需要时间。政策的出台和拥挤的交易可能会放大债券市场的波动，但考虑到资本报酬率的回落、温和的通胀环境以及趋于下行的贷款利率，我国债券市场利率中枢或许仍然在下行途中。风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险（2）政策出台超预期', 'content': \"Executive summary The latest trade and inflation data show that there is still a divide between domestic and foreign demand in China. The recovery of the global manufacturing industry is expected to continue to promote a moderate rebound in my country's export activities, while the slowdown in the real estate industry may continue to drag down total demand. From the perspective of market pricing, the risk of Vanke's default has been alleviated in the short term, the spread of pressure has been blocked in stages, market concerns have eased, and the risk of a second dip has been controlled. However, whether the equity market can be transformed into an upward trend still requires the confirmation of fundamental signals, which will undoubtedly take time. The introduction of policies and crowded transactions may amplify the volatility of the bond market, but considering the fall in the return on capital, the moderate inflation environment and the downward trend of loan interest rates, the interest rate center of my country's bond market may still be on the way down. Risk warning: (1) Geopolitical risks (2) Policy introduction exceeds expectations\", 'authorid': UUID('66c81f3c-61e1-5d1f-95e1-6739dac1004e'), 'sentimentScore': -0.024565786123275757, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OLIPHQSFKFQ90DU2D3LJ44KCMFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:39:57 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OLIPHQSFKFQ90DU2D3LJ44KCMFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1a34bbf9-d6b0-5986-8903-b81ed8789f39'), 'title': 'Macro Observation Issue 17, 2024 (Total Issue 528): Interpretation 3 of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have become an important starting point for strengthening fiscal policy and improving efficiency*', 'author': 'Ye Yindan, Liu Chen', 'orgName': '中国银行', 'orgCode': '80001122', 'orgSName': '中国银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elzdrEYvHdQZfX3sQ1CGnucI=', 'researcher': '叶银丹,刘晨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000318748', '11000382833'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elzdrEYvHdQZfX3sQ1CGnucI=', 'site': 'Bank of China', 'originalSite': '中国银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626448834_1.pdf?1710260954000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626448834_1.pdf?1710260954000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Observation Issue 17, 2024 (Total Issue 528): Interpretation 3 of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have become an important starting point for strengthening fiscal policy and improving efficiency*', 'originalAuthor': '叶银丹,刘晨', 'originalContent': '3月5日，李强总理在十四届全国人大二次会议上做了《政府工作报告》（以下简称《报告》）。《报告》回顾了2023年的政府工作，提出了2024年经济社会发展预期目标、总体要求和政策取向，部署了2024年政府工作重点任务。其中，《报告》提出将连续几年发行超长期特别国债，今年先发行1万亿元，超出市场预期。本文重点分析了2024年财政政策力度，在梳理过去超长期特别国债发行情况的基础上，分析了本轮超长期特别国债发行的原因和影响，并提出相关政策建议。', 'content': 'On March 5, Premier Li Qiang delivered the \"Government Work Report\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Report\") at the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress. The \"Report\" reviews the government\\'s work in 2023, puts forward the expected goals, overall requirements and policy orientation for economic and social development in 2024, and deploys the key tasks of the government\\'s work in 2024. Among them, the \"Report\" proposed that ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued for several consecutive years. This year, 1 trillion yuan will be issued first, exceeding market expectations. This article focuses on analyzing the intensity of fiscal policy in 2024. Based on sorting out the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in the past, it analyzes the causes and impacts of this round of ultra-long-term special treasury bond issuance, and puts forward relevant policy recommendations.', 'authorid': UUID('8ce0d131-8f3a-5d4d-bad0-0e960e9652ac'), 'sentimentScore': 0.05821179039776325, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'ROBKP794JI5BSLIF1TBH740B37VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:40:00 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'ROBKP794JI5BSLIF1TBH740B37VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('4bce7653-76a8-5aa2-a167-c006e29e9bf8'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Research Weekly Report: Domestic prices rebounded moderately, and U.S. non-farm data exceeded expectations', 'author': 'Ye Bin', 'orgName': '财信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000140', 'orgSName': '财信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elz67TF5A6QzQOu/9244+Zp8=', 'researcher': '叶彬', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000370137'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elz67TF5A6QzQOu/9244+Zp8=', 'site': 'Caixin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '财信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626448833_1.pdf?1710258603000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626448833_1.pdf?1710258603000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Research Weekly Report: Domestic prices rebounded moderately, and U.S. non-farm data exceeded expectations', 'originalAuthor': '叶彬', 'originalContent': '本周观点：国内方面，2024年2月份，全国CPI环比上涨1.0%，涨幅比上月扩大0.7个百分点；同比由上月下降0.8%转为上涨0.7%。核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅比上月扩大0.8个百分点，为2022年2月以来最高涨幅。同比来看，非食品中，服务价格上涨1.9%，涨幅扩大1.4个百分点，影响CPI上涨约0.76个百分点，其中旅游、飞机票和交通工具租赁费价格分别上涨23.1%、20.8%和17.4%。2024年春节假期偏长，春节消费景气度明显提升，春节电影票房打破记录、春节中长线出游明显回暖、���税消费大超预期，这与2月份核心CPI回升相互验证。2月份，受春节假日等因素影响，工业生产处于传统淡季，全国PPI环比下降0.2%，降幅与上月相同。总体来看，2月份CPI及PPI数据均受春节因素影响较大，暂无法判断其趋势。出口数据方面，受益于低基数，1-2月份按美元计价出口5280.1亿美元，增长7.1%，但两年年化增速-0.94%。其中，出口机电产品2.22万亿元，增长11.8%，占出口总值的59.1%。总体来看，2024年前2个月我国外贸进出口呈现出稳健的增长态势，但未来全球经济面临一些不确定性，如地缘政治风险、金融市场波动等，出口增速可能会受到一些外部因素的拖累。海外方面，美国劳工统计局于3月8日公布了最新就业数据，显示2月份美国非农就业人口增长达27.5万人，这一数字超出了市场预期的20万人，并且高于过去12个月平均每月23万人的增长。非农就业人口的增长超出了市场预期，表明美国经济仍然具有相当的韧性，劳动力市场需求强劲。但是，前两个月的非农就业人数总数经过修正后有所下降，这可能引发市场对于劳动力市场是否真正如预期般强劲的疑虑。另外，失业率意外上升至3.9%，这一数字虽然仍然处于相对较低的水平，但高于市场预期。总体来看，尽管2月非农数据表现亮眼，但前期经过修正的数据下降叠加失业率超预期，经济强劲势头仍存在不确定性，市场对美联储降息预期保持乐观情绪。国内热点：一、十四届全国人大二次会议听取关于政府工作的报告。二、央行发布《以区域金融改革为抓手做好“五篇大文章”》专栏文章。三、前2个月我国货物贸易进出口总值6.61万亿元人民币，同比增长8.7%。四、2月份CPI同比上涨0.7%，PPI同比下降2.7%。国际热点：一、美国2月非农就业增27.5万，超出市场预期。二、2月新兴市场录得连续第4个月外资净流入。上周高频数据跟踪：3月4日至3月8日，上证指数上涨0.63%，收报3046.02点；沪深300指数上涨0.43%，收报3544.91点；创业板指下跌0.92%，收报1807.29点。风险提示：国内政策超预期；欧美经济衰退风险加剧。', 'content': 'This week’s view: Domestically, in February 2024, the national CPI increased by 1.0% month-on-month, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month; the year-on-year decrease changed from a 0.8% decrease last month to an increase of 0.7%. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, the highest increase since February 2022. On a year-on-year basis, among non-food items, service prices increased by 1.9%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points, affecting an increase in CPI of about 0.76 percentage points. Among them, the prices of travel, air tickets and transportation rental fees increased by 23.1%, 20.8% and 17.4% respectively. The Spring Festival holiday in 2024 is relatively long, and the consumption boom during the Spring Festival has improved significantly. The box office of Spring Festival movies has broken the record, medium and long-term travel during the Spring Festival has picked up significantly, and duty-free consumption has exceeded expectations. This is mutually verified by the rebound in core CPI in February. In February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and other factors, industrial production was in the traditional off-season, and the national PPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month, the same as the previous month. Overall, the CPI and PPI data in February were greatly affected by the Spring Festival factors, and it is temporarily impossible to judge their trends. In terms of export data, benefiting from the low base, exports in US dollars from January to February were US$528.01 billion, an increase of 7.1%, but the two-year annualized growth rate was -0.94%. Among them, the export of mechanical and electrical products was 2.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.8%, accounting for 59.1% of the total export value. Overall, my country\\'s foreign trade import and export showed a steady growth trend in the first two months of 2024. However, the global economy faces some uncertainties in the future, such as geopolitical risks, financial market fluctuations, etc., and the export growth rate may be affected by some external factors. drag. Overseas, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest employment data on March 8, showing that the U.S. non-farm employment population increased by 275,000 in February. This number exceeded market expectations of 200,000 and was higher than the past 12 months. The monthly average growth is 230,000 people per month. The growth in non-farm payroll employment exceeded market expectations, indicating that the U.S. economy is still quite resilient and the labor market demand is strong. However, nonfarm payroll employment totals for the first two months were revised down, which may raise questions about whether the labor market is truly as strong as expected. In addition, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9%. Although this number is still at a relatively low level, it is higher than market expectations. Overall, although the non-agricultural data in February performed well, the revised data dropped in the previous period and the unemployment rate exceeded expectations. There is still uncertainty about the strong economic momentum. The market remains optimistic about the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate cut expectations. Domestic hot topics: 1. The second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress heard reports on government work. 2. The central bank published a column titled \"Five Big Articles Taking Regional Financial Reform as the Focus\". 3. In the first two months, my country’s total import and export value of goods trade was 6.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. 4. In February, CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, and PPI decreased by 2.7% year-on-year. International hot spots: 1. The U.S. non-agricultural employment increased by 275,000 in February, exceeding market expectations. 2. In February, emerging markets recorded net foreign capital inflows for the fourth consecutive month. High-frequency data tracking last week: From March 4 to March 8, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63% to close at 3046.02 points; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.43% to close at 3544.91 points; the ChiNext Index fell 0.92% to close at 1807.29 points. Risk warning: Domestic policies have exceeded expectations; the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States has intensified.', 'authorid': UUID('4fda87f7-a5e2-53ab-b6c5-0b61d8c5eaae'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9299301970750093, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'USHJA8A23OKERRAUAU7FN9RVHNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:40:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'USHJA8A23OKERRAUAU7FN9RVHNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f4f69192-4ab1-5665-b362-e39f7688392c'), 'title': 'Overseas and major category weekly reports: Innovation narrative challenges recession expectations', 'author': 'Wu Kaida', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el1WVW3+mDe6vcrAnD0QW2ws=', 'researcher': '吴开达', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259142'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el1WVW3+mDe6vcrAnD0QW2ws=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626446954_1.pdf?1710251841000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626446954_1.pdf?1710251841000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas and major category weekly reports: Innovation narrative challenges recession expectations', 'originalAuthor': '吴开达', 'originalContent': '港股市场：1)恒指延续震荡整理。在政策预期兑现以及前期积累可观的涨幅后出现一定调整。3月4日至8日，风格层面，恒生高股息、中国央企与小盘因子均录得正收益，恒生科技回调显著达2.94%；行业方面，上游周期表现亮眼，原材料与能源板块分别上涨8.98%与5.40%，医疗保健与可选消费行业跌幅居首，分别下跌3.33%与3.60%；2)预期交易结束后，市场会围绕托而不举的政策基调，对风险出清以及产业升级两个方向进行政策落地观察。政府工作报告设定全年5%GDP增长目标、赤字率拟3%，从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，今年先发行1万亿元，政策托底力度较为温和，并未超出市场预期。后续关注点上，一方面针对房地产与地方政府的纾困措施仍是市场关切，若相关领域的局部风险得到有效遏制，经济有望重新回到正轨，扭转PMI与企业盈利低位震荡或偏弱的态势；另一方面，新质生产力主题下开展的“产业升级”与“发展支撑”将是2024年的两大投资主线，数字经济、科技制造景气仍在，等待后续产业具体政策落地为市场提供更多线索；3)配置方面，在政策预期躁动结束以及港元贬值压力尚未缓解的背景下，建议仍以波动率策略为主。短期内股息率较高的公用事业、能源、金融、电信等板块，即使未来市场波动率有所上升，也能在该环境中提供可观的相对收益；中长期而言，以半导体、互联网为代表的科技行业仍将是产业转型的主抓手，有望从政府支持以及国产替代中受益。美股市场：1)本周美股先扬后抑，主要指数略有收跌。Claude3大模型推出以及鲍威尔释放鸽派信号提振市场情绪，而随后2月季调失业���意外升至两年新高3.9%以及美股前期涨幅较大的背景下，科技板块遭遇回调。3月4日至8日，风格层面，以罗素2000为代表的小盘指数占优，标普500纯价值、罗素3000价值等价值指数占优；行业层面，公用事业(+3.19%)、原材料(+1.58%)、房地产(+1.46%)等板块涨幅居前，可选消费(-2.59%)、信息技术(-1.08%)、通信服务(-0.65%)等行业领跌市场；2)部分2月经济数据边际走弱引发衰退预期，但科技创新有望使美国经济保持韧性。2月ADP就业人数、服务业PMI不及预期，失业率升至3.9%创两年来新高，十年期美债收益率从3月4日4.22%回落至3月8日4.09%，反映市场衰退预期上升。尽管就业数据出现一定摇摆，但整体认为美国经济将在科技创新的加持下维持韧性。短期来看，费城半导体指数同比变化较制造业PMI有6个月领先性，伴随全球半导体销售回升以及AI龙头的技术进步，PMI指标或将企稳回升；长期来看，美国劳动生产率于2014年触底，尽管在2021至2022年间由于疫情影响而快速回落，但在于2022年中至今延续着上行趋势，劳动生产率连续回升区间内美国经济鲜有衰退状态；3)短期美股或存在技术回调风险。当前美股处于高离散、低相关状态，表明过多的涨幅累积在特定的板块中，此外市场宽度指标、VIX指数、美股主动投资仓位指数也纷纷指向市场或存在过热风险；4)配置层面，在科技革命尚在验证期、美联储年内降息以及美国经济软着陆的基准假设情形下，建议三条配置主线。一是海外大模型迭代加速对科技硬件形成强烈需求；二是利率敏感型板块有望从降息周期中受益，如医疗保健；三是尽管短期经济数据有所摇摆，但美国经济仍保持韧性，能源、原材料等顺周期板块具备一定配置性价比区间。风险提示：海外二次通胀压力；美国经济硬着陆风险；国际局势复杂化。', 'content': 'Hong Kong stock market: 1) The Hang Seng Index continued to fluctuate. Certain adjustments occurred after policy expectations were fulfilled and considerable gains accumulated in the early stage. From March 4 to 8, at the style level, Hang Seng High Dividend, China\\'s central enterprises and small-cap factors all recorded positive returns, and Hang Seng Technology\\'s correction reached a significant 2.94%; in terms of industry, the upstream cycle performed well, with the raw materials and energy sectors respectively. rose 8.98% and 5.40%, with the healthcare and consumer discretionary industries leading the decline, falling 3.33% and 3.60% respectively; 2) It is expected that after the transaction is completed, the market will focus on the policy tone of leaving nothing behind, clearing risks and industry Upgrade two directions to observe policy implementation. The government work report sets the annual GDP growth target of 5% and the deficit rate of 3%. Starting from this year, it plans to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds for several consecutive years. This year, it will first issue 1 trillion yuan. The policy support is relatively moderate and has not exceeded market expectation. In terms of follow-up attention, on the one hand, relief measures for real estate and local governments are still of concern to the market. If local risks in related fields are effectively contained, the economy is expected to get back on track and reverse the low, volatile or weak trend of PMI and corporate profits. On the other hand, \"industrial upgrading\" and \"development support\" carried out under the theme of new productivity will be the two main lines of investment in 2024. The digital economy and technological manufacturing are still booming, and we are waiting for the implementation of subsequent industry-specific policies to provide the market with more opportunities. Multiple clues; 3) In terms of allocation, in the context of the end of policy expectations and the pressure on Hong Kong dollar depreciation that has not yet eased, it is recommended to still focus on volatility strategies. Sectors such as utilities, energy, finance, and telecommunications with higher dividend rates in the short term can provide considerable relative returns in this environment even if market volatility increases in the future; in the medium and long term, represented by semiconductors and the Internet The technology industry will remain the main focus of industrial transformation and is expected to benefit from government support and domestic substitution. U.S. stock market: 1) U.S. stocks rose first and then fell this week, with major indexes closing slightly lower. The launch of Claude3\\'s large model and Powell\\'s dovish signal boosted market sentiment, and then the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a two-year high of 3.9% in February and against the background of large early gains in U.S. stocks, the technology sector suffered a correction. From March 4 to 8, at the style level, small-cap indexes represented by Russell 2000 dominated, and value indexes such as S&P 500 pure value and Russell 3000 value dominated; at the industry level, utilities (+3.19%), raw materials (+1.58%), real estate (+1.46%) and other sectors were among the top gainers, while industries such as consumer discretionary (-2.59%), information technology (-1.08%), and communication services (-0.65%) led the market decline; 2) Marginal weakness in some February economic data triggered recession expectations, but technological innovation is expected to keep the U.S. economy resilient. In February, ADP employment numbers and service industry PMI were lower than expected. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, a new high in two years. The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield fell from 4.22% on March 4 to 4.09% on March 8, reflecting market recession expectations. rise. Although there are certain swings in employment data, it is generally believed that the U.S. economy will maintain resilience with the support of technological innovation. In the short term, the year-on-year change of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is 6 months ahead of the manufacturing PMI. With the rebound in global semiconductor sales and the technological advancement of AI leaders, the PMI index may stabilize and rebound; in the long term, U.S. labor productivity hit 2014. At the end of the year, although there was a rapid decline due to the impact of the epidemic between 2021 and 2022, the upward trend has continued from mid-2022 to the present, and the U.S. economy has rarely been in recession within the range of continuous rebound in labor productivity; 3) There may be a risk of technical correction in U.S. stocks in the short term. The current U.S. stock market is in a state of high dispersion and low correlation, indicating that excessive gains have accumulated in specific sectors. In addition, the market breadth index, VIX index, and U.S. stock active investment position index also point to the market or the risk of overheating; 4) At the allocation level, in Under the baseline assumption that the technological revolution is still in the verification period, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during the year, and the U.S. economy soft lands, three main lines of allocation are recommended. First, the iteration of large overseas models is accelerating, creating strong demand for technology hardware; second, interest-sensitive sectors are expected to benefit from the interest rate cut cycle, such as health care; third, despite some swings in short-term economic data, the U.S. economy remains resilient, with energy, Procyclical sectors such as raw materials have a certain configuration and price-performance range. Risk warning: overseas secondary inflationary pressure; risk of hard landing of the U.S. economy; complex international situation.', 'authorid': UUID('7654beb8-79ca-5a7e-acbf-3ae8a45aa9bd'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9212254732847214, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'LHGQI9JI0B550DMV0ACPSUF22FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:40:06 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'LHGQI9JI0B550DMV0ACPSUF22FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('37a1fc47-623f-58fa-92e0-96b7fa174825'), 'title': 'Macro report: Two clues to U.S. core inflation rebound', 'author': 'Song Xuetao', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elwQhviehbritOLgJlHMKb1k=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elwQhviehbritOLgJlHMKb1k=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626447058_1.pdf?1710251841000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626447058_1.pdf?1710251841000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro report: Two clues to U.S. core inflation rebound', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛', 'originalContent': '美国的通胀水平相较于本轮周期高点缓和明显。核心商品快速去通胀，但核心服务通胀依然极具粘性，三个月平均环比折年率亦有明显反弹的趋势。我们认为未来美国核心通胀或将进一步反弹。其背后有两条主要线索：线索1：去通胀进程本就极其有限的住房通胀，将随着房价的反弹带来新的通胀压力最新数据中，业主等权租金远高于主要居所租金。随着房价持续反弹，OER的高增或将缓慢向非主要居所租金传导，进一步推高住房租金分项。23年6月见底反弹的美国房价指向24年6-7月的住房通胀反弹，将对核心通胀带来新的压力。线索2：火热的低技能服务业与难弥合的劳动力供需缺口推动超级核心通胀反弹难以弥合的低技能服务业供需缺口阻碍了去通胀进程，这也使得其薪资增速难以大幅缓和，增加超级核心通胀压力。当前美国劳动力整体供需缺口为270万人左右，仍远高于2019年110万人的水平，薪资增速均难以实质性跌破4%。美国劳动力供给修复遇到瓶颈，供给偏紧的局面或将延续，托底薪资增速，间接支撑核心服务通胀反弹。风险提示：美国抵押贷款风险暴露导致房价大幅下跌，美联储维持高利率时间高于预期，美国海外劳动力供给超预期。', 'content': 'The inflation level in the United States has eased significantly compared with the high point of this cycle. Core goods de-inflated rapidly, but core service inflation remained extremely sticky, and the three-month average month-on-month annualized rate also showed a clear rebound trend. We believe that U.S. core inflation may rebound further in the future. There are two main clues behind this: Clue 1: Housing inflation, which has an extremely limited de-inflation process, will bring new inflationary pressure as housing prices rebound. According to the latest data, the equal-rights rent for owners is much higher than the rent for primary residence. As housing prices continue to rebound, the high growth in OER may be slowly transmitted to non-primary residence rents, further pushing up the housing rental component. U.S. housing prices, which bottomed out in June 2023, point to a rebound in housing inflation from June to July 2024, which will put new pressure on core inflation. Clue 2: The hot low-skilled service industry and the difficult-to-bridge labor supply and demand gap drive the super core inflation rebound. The difficult-to-bridge supply and demand gap in the low-skilled service industry hinders the de-inflation process, which also makes it difficult for its wage growth to significantly ease, increasing the super core Inflationary pressures. The current overall supply-demand gap for the U.S. labor force is about 2.7 million people, which is still much higher than the level of 1.1 million people in 2019, and it is difficult for wage growth to fall below 4% in substance. The restoration of labor supply in the United States has encountered a bottleneck, and the tight supply situation may continue, which will support wage growth and indirectly support the rebound in core service inflation. Risk warning: U.S. mortgage risk exposure has led to a sharp decline in housing prices, the Federal Reserve has maintained high interest rates for longer than expected, and the U.S. overseas labor supply has exceeded expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('e546a080-7eae-5a16-8b31-ee315393fe93'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6142538338899612, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'BKRMBR0SVCO5J5I2DNHA139S7RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:40:29 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'BKRMBR0SVCO5J5I2DNHA139S7RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e79b55d4-fb7d-5352-9bdb-ab77f80ae36d'), 'title': 'Comments on price data in February 2024: The reversal of the \"Spring Festival in the wrong month\" effect drove the CPI to become positive year-on-year in February, and the price level will still run at a low level in the short term', 'author': 'Feng Lin', 'orgName': '东方金诚', 'orgCode': '80117870', 'orgSName': '东方金诚', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6ely2JzUmSiQ8k3qDdZZKQ20Q=', 'researcher': '冯琳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000282735'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6ely2JzUmSiQ8k3qDdZZKQ20Q=', 'site': 'Oriental Jincheng', 'originalSite': '东方金诚', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626446950_1.pdf?1710255358000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626446950_1.pdf?1710255358000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on price data in February 2024: The reversal of the \"Spring Festival in the wrong month\" effect drove the CPI to become positive year-on-year in February, and the price level will still run at a low level in the short term', 'originalAuthor': '冯琳', 'originalContent': '事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2024年2月，CPI同比为0.7%，1月为-0.8%；PPI同比为-2.7%，1月为-2.5%。基本观点：2月CPI同比转正，结束了此前连续四个月的同比负增长，这主要源于“春节错月”效应反转，食品和旅游出行服务价格大涨带动整体物价水平显著走高；从环比来看，2月物价增长动能仍然较为温和。预计3月CPI同比涨幅将会回落，未来一段时间仍将低位运行，其中一个原因是楼市低迷对居民消费心理有一定负面影响。PPI���面，2月国际原油价格上行，但因国内商品整体价格偏弱调整，当月PPI环比仍维持跌势。同时，由于上年同期基数走势相对稳定，当月PPI同比降幅有所扩大。展望未来，节后食品价格正在较快回落，服务消费也将进入淡季。由此，尽管上年同期价格基数下行，但今年3月CPI同比涨幅仍将有所回落，预计将在0.2%左右。综合考虑各类影响物价走势的因素，短期内CPI同比涨幅明显上移的可能性不大，低通胀现象仍需高度重视。3月国际油价波动中枢大概率将高于2月，加之春节假期对需求端的扰动退去，PPI环比表现有望改善。不过，由于需求预期尚未明显好转，预计3月PPI环比涨跌幅将仅在0.0%附近，加之上年同期基数走势稳定，同比降幅将维持在-2.7%。进入二季度以后，伴随稳增长政策效果逐步显现，加之上年同期价格基数下沉，预计4月起PPI同比降幅将重回收窄过程，并有望在年中前后转为正增长。', 'content': 'Event: According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in February 2024, the CPI was 0.7% year-on-year and -0.8% in January; the PPI was -2.7% year-on-year and -2.5% in January. Basic point of view: CPI turned positive year-on-year in February, ending the previous four consecutive months of negative year-on-year growth. This was mainly due to the reversal of the \"Spring Festival wrong month\" effect, and the sharp increase in food and travel service prices drove the overall price level to rise significantly; from On a month-on-month basis, price growth momentum in February was still relatively moderate. It is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI in March will fall back and will remain low for some time to come. One of the reasons is that the downturn in the property market has a certain negative impact on residents\\' consumption psychology. In terms of PPI, international crude oil prices rose in February, but due to weak adjustments in overall domestic commodity prices, PPI still maintained a month-on-month decline that month. At the same time, due to the relatively stable base trend in the same period last year, the year-on-year decline in PPI in that month expanded. Looking to the future, food prices are falling rapidly after the holidays, and service consumption will also enter the off-season. As a result, despite the downward price base in the same period last year, the year-on-year CPI increase in March this year will still fall back, and is expected to be around 0.2%. Taking into account various factors that affect price trends, it is unlikely that the year-on-year increase in CPI will move up significantly in the short term, and the phenomenon of low inflation still requires great attention. There is a high probability that the international oil price fluctuation center in March will be higher than that in February. In addition, the disruption to the demand side caused by the Spring Festival holiday has receded, and the month-on-month performance of PPI is expected to improve. However, as demand expectations have not improved significantly, the month-on-month increase or decrease of PPI in March is expected to be only around 0.0%. Coupled with the stable base trend in the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease will remain at -2.7%. After entering the second quarter, as the effects of stabilizing growth policies gradually emerge, and the price base sinks in the same period last year, it is expected that the year-on-year decline in PPI will return to a narrow process starting in April, and is expected to turn to positive growth around the middle of the year.', 'authorid': UUID('c7e74489-0cfa-5b6c-bf86-df5a0ef5adbc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7084092348814011, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'T0IEQSUQ41UP40MGMIT11HM333VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:40:32 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'T0IEQSUQ41UP40MGMIT11HM333VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ac19f526-9d90-5b31-b1a9-af910fbaa3af'), 'title': \"Macro Weekly Report: China's exports have a better-than-expected start, and U.S. non-farm employment grows moderately\", 'author': 'Li Ting, Huang Lei, Gao Hui, Wang Gongjian', 'orgName': '铜冠金源期货', 'orgCode': '80055522', 'orgSName': '铜冠金源期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el6viRt0PFQFKE6OlaErXoYU=', 'researcher': '李婷,黄蕾,高慧,王工建', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000207840', '11000210457', '11000428834', '11000369911'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el6viRt0PFQFKE6OlaErXoYU=', 'site': 'Tongguan Jinyuan Futures', 'originalSite': '铜冠金源期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626446874_1.pdf?1710504320000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626446874_1.pdf?1710504320000.pdf', 'originalTitle': \"Macro Weekly Report: China's exports have a better-than-expected start, and U.S. non-farm employment grows moderately\", 'originalAuthor': '李婷,黄蕾,高慧,王工建', 'originalContent': '核心观点海外方面，美国2月非农就业新增27.5万人，超出市场预期，前两月累计下修16.7万人，商品部门边际降温，服务就业依旧有韧劲，工资通胀压力缓解，失业率意外上行至3.9%，整体而言目前就业市场温和增速的趋势未变。周五鲍威尔释放鸽派信号，强调通胀已出现明显进展，且长线通胀预期锚定良好，重申今年降息可能是适当的。随后美债收益率回落，美元指数下行，金价连续创新高，目前市场定价6月首次降息，全年降4次。欧央行利率决议连续4次“按兵不动”，同步下调通胀、经济增长预期。本周关注美国2月CPI、零售数据。国内方面，1-2月进出口数据均高于市场预期，主要有3点原因①全球制造业景气回升，半导体产业链复苏，海外已逐渐由去库转向补库，需求拉动出口超预期；②春节错位以及2023年初疫情导致的低基数，助推了同比增速的改善；③1-2月外贸企业积极抢订单、拓市场。2月物价数据在春节错位下呈分化走势，CPI同比超预期且回正，PPI同比走弱，后续由于低基数效应预计将呈弱修复趋势。两会闭幕，总体而言未超市场预期，全年GDP目标5%左右，赤字率3%。本周关注国内金融数据。风险因素：政策效果不及预期，地产修复不及预期，欧美降息预期反复，地缘政治冲突加剧。', 'content': 'Core Views Overseas, the United States added 275,000 non-farm jobs in February, exceeding market expectations. The cumulative number of jobs in the first two months was revised down to 167,000. The commodity sector has cooled down at the margin, service employment remains resilient, wage inflation pressures have eased, and the unemployment rate is unexpected. It rose to 3.9%. Overall, the current trend of moderate growth in the job market has not changed. Powell issued a dovish signal on Friday, emphasizing that inflation has shown significant progress and long-term inflation expectations are well anchored, and reiterated that an interest rate cut this year may be appropriate. Subsequently, U.S. bond yields fell back, the U.S. dollar index fell, and the price of gold continued to reach new highs. The market is currently pricing in an interest rate cut for the first time in June, and 4 times throughout the year. The European Central Bank\\'s interest rate decision has been \"on hold\" for the fourth time in a row, simultaneously lowering inflation and economic growth expectations. This week, focus on the US February CPI and retail sales data. Domestically, the import and export data from January to February were higher than market expectations. There are three main reasons: ① The global manufacturing boom has rebounded, the semiconductor industry chain has recovered, overseas has gradually shifted from destocking to replenishing, and demand has driven exports beyond expectations; ② The misalignment of the Spring Festival and the low base caused by the epidemic in early 2023 have contributed to the improvement in year-on-year growth; ③ From January to February, foreign trade companies actively grabbed orders and expanded the market. Price data in February showed a divergent trend due to the misalignment of the Spring Festival. CPI exceeded expectations and returned to positive year-on-year, while PPI weakened year-on-year. It is expected to show a weak recovery trend due to the low base effect in the future. The conclusion of the two sessions generally did not exceed market expectations, with the full-year GDP target of around 5% and a deficit rate of 3%. Focus on domestic financial data this week. Risk factors: policy effects are not as good as expected, real estate recovery is not as good as expected, expectations of interest rate cuts in Europe and the United States are repeated, and geopolitical conflicts intensify.', 'authorid': UUID('031c3f63-fc61-5961-a12a-0ada8999feda'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9216106422245502, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '6A70DUBGM9BTNFB4DTCR4UOJQBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:40:34 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '6A70DUBGM9BTNFB4DTCR4UOJQBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0cffaf67-7b74-502e-a542-a9b82d4f3e30'), 'title': 'February U.S. non-farm payrolls report', 'author': 'Macro Finance Team', 'orgName': '国投安信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066669', 'orgSName': '国投安信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el108U/3BxFl4+fdKosGBzew=', 'researcher': '宏观金融团队', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000442645'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el108U/3BxFl4+fdKosGBzew=', 'site': 'SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投安信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626444038_1.pdf?1710252847000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626444038_1.pdf?1710252847000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'February U.S. non-farm payrolls report', 'originalAuthor': '宏观金融团队', 'originalContent': '美国2024年2月新增非农就业27.5万人，预期20万人，前值下修至22.9万人；失业率意外上行0.2pct至3.9%，劳动参与率维持62.5%。2月小时工资同比增速较前值回落0.1pct至4.3%，环比增速回落0.4pct至0.1%。2月份就业增长主要集中在服务业，具体来看，所有行业中只有制造业就业回落，服务业就业人数增长仍未最为显著的行业，2月达20.4万人，为本月最高，教育和保健服务、休闲和酒店业的新增就业增长是该类就业上升的主要因素。整体来看，尽管2月新增非农就业数据高于前值，但前值大幅下修、超预期上行的失业率与下滑的薪资同比增速仍显示美国劳动力市场有所降温。在数据公布后，市场对降息时点的预期基本保持稳定，预期降息最早可能出现在今年的6月，概率为60.5%，年内有4次降息空间。', 'content': \"The United States added 275,000 non-farm jobs in February 2024, compared with expectations of 200,000, and the previous value was revised down to 229,000; the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose by 0.2pc to 3.9%, and the labor participation rate remained at 62.5%. The year-on-year growth rate of hourly wages in February fell by 0.1pct to 4.3% from the previous value, and the month-on-month growth rate dropped by 0.4pct to 0.1%. Employment growth in February was mainly concentrated in the service industry. Specifically, among all industries, only manufacturing employment fell. The growth in employment in the service industry was still not the most significant. It reached 204,000 in February, the highest this month. Education and New job growth in the health services, leisure and hospitality industries was a major factor in the rise in employment. Overall, although the new non-farm employment data in February was higher than the previous value, the sharp downward revision of the previous value, the higher-than-expected unemployment rate, and the declining year-on-year wage growth still indicate that the U.S. labor market has cooled. After the data was released, the market's expectations for the timing of interest rate cuts have basically remained stable. It is expected that an interest rate cut may occur as early as June this year, with a probability of 60.5%, and there is room for four interest rate cuts during the year.\", 'authorid': UUID('d4813736-c001-5f5c-bd84-39fcb960b66d'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9521210640668869, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '02V6G55E4Q2CCSKA0HRD9CGR43VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:40:37 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '02V6G55E4Q2CCSKA0HRD9CGR43VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0b8a3268-301a-5be3-9631-30c1b2de9867'), 'title': 'February China Price Data Express', 'author': 'Jin Shunrouzi', 'orgName': '国投安信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066669', 'orgSName': '国投安信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elzWI/rn2eB8eQ0hLkJlYEvo=', 'researcher': '靳顺柔子', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245957'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elzWI/rn2eB8eQ0hLkJlYEvo=', 'site': 'SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投安信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626444033_1.pdf?1710242241000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626444033_1.pdf?1710242241000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'February China Price Data Express', 'originalAuthor': '靳顺柔子', 'originalContent': '中国2月CPI同比上涨0.7%，好于预期上涨0.4%，为去年8月以来首次转正，前值下降0.8%：环比涨幅比上月扩大0.7个百分点至1%。PPI同比下降2.7%，不及预期下降2.5%，前值降2.5%：环比下降0.2%，降幅与上月持平。CPI-PPI剪刀差扩大1.7个百分点至3.4%。CPI方面，春节错位叠加食品、服务类消费在假期的刺激效应下价格边际走高，CPI同比回升超预期。食品方面，鲜菜、猪肉、水产品和鲜果价格分别环比上涨12.7%、7.2%、6.2%和4.3%；���比来看，猪价上涨0.2%，是连续下降9个月后的首次转涨，鲜菜和水产品价格分别由上月下降12.7%和3.4%转为上涨2.9%和4.1%。非食品方面，旅游和交通类服务价格涨幅较大，整体服务价格涨幅超出季节性。PPI方面，2月下游处于需求淡季，市场预期也没有明显变化，工业品价格缺少明显驱动，由于市场对房地产预期较弱，春节后复工复产进度也偏慢，整体工业品价格有所回落。整体来看，春节假期效应推动叠加春节错月带来的低基数，中国2月CPI同比由负转正，创下11个月最大涨幅：但由于春节前后处于传统工业生产的淡季，PPI同比降幅则略有扩大。当前国内需求预期依然偏弱，通胀修复尚需时日，后续仍看需求侧政策发力效果。', 'content': \"China's CPI rose 0.7% year-on-year in February, which was better than expected. It rose 0.4%, turning positive for the first time since August last year. The previous value fell 0.8%: the month-on-month increase expanded 0.7 percentage points from the previous month to 1%. PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year, which was less than expected to fall by 2.5%. The previous value fell by 2.5%: it fell by 0.2% month-on-month, and the decline was the same as last month. The CPI-PPI scissor gap widened by 1.7 percentage points to 3.4%. In terms of CPI, the Spring Festival misalignment combined with the marginal increase in prices of food and service consumption under the stimulating effect of the holiday, and the year-on-year CPI rebound exceeded expectations. In terms of food, the prices of fresh vegetables, pork, aquatic products and fresh fruits increased by 12.7%, 7.2%, 6.2% and 4.3% respectively month-on-month; year-on-year, the price of pigs increased by 0.2%, which was the first increase after nine consecutive months of decline. The prices of fresh vegetables and aquatic products increased by 2.9% and 4.1% respectively from a decrease of 12.7% and 3.4% in the previous month. In terms of non-food, the prices of tourism and transportation services increased significantly, and the overall service price increase exceeded the seasonal increase. In terms of PPI, downstream demand was in the off-season in February, and there was no significant change in market expectations. Industrial product prices lacked obvious drivers. Due to weak market expectations for real estate, the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival was also slow, and overall industrial product prices fell. Overall, due to the Spring Festival holiday effect and the low base caused by the wrong month of the Spring Festival, China's CPI in February turned from negative to positive year-on-year, setting the largest increase in 11 months: However, due to the off-season for traditional industrial production around the Spring Festival, the year-on-year decline in PPI was slightly smaller. There is expansion. At present, domestic demand is still expected to be weak, and it will take time for inflation to recover. The follow-up still depends on the effect of demand-side policies.\", 'authorid': UUID('40e65a3c-99e1-55f2-857c-bc9dfcf8c17c'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7536743730306625, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GJ8REFTRPTVATM0NST99JA0AJ7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:40:39 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GJ8REFTRPTVATM0NST99JA0AJ7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('14edbe8e-8d01-5932-ad71-56819c0b2578'), 'title': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm payroll data in February: U.S. employment data is mixed', 'author': 'Yan Xiang, Zhu Bin, Zhang Mengfei', 'orgName': '华福证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000065', 'orgSName': '华福证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elwGQstdnLrJ+4RqyNq5yBn8=', 'researcher': '燕翔,朱斌,章孟菲', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000223033', '11000235035', '11000449858'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elwGQstdnLrJ+4RqyNq5yBn8=', 'site': 'Huafu Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华福证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626420341_1.pdf?1710233916000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626420341_1.pdf?1710233916000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm payroll data in February: U.S. employment data is mixed', 'originalAuthor': '燕翔,朱斌,章孟菲', 'originalContent': '事件：3月8日，美国劳工局（BLS）公布了2月非农数据。2月新增非农就业人数为27.5万人，高于市场预期的20万人，前值由35.3万人下修至22.9万人。投资要点：从分项数据来看，商品生产就业人数新增1.9万人。其中，建筑业就业人数新增2.3万人为最大贡献项，��续11个月新增就业为正，采矿业新增就业与前值持平，制造业下降0.4万人。服务业新增就业人数为20.4万人，为2023年6月以来最大增加值。其中对利率不敏感的教育和保健服务业（+8.5万人）依然贡献了最大增长，休闲和酒店业（+5.8万人）为2023年6月以来最大新增值，运输仓储业（+2.0万人），零售业（+1.9万），专业和商业服务（+0.9万）等行业均为正增长。同时，美国12月失业率为3.9%，高于预期和前值3.7%，为2022年1月来新高。1月劳动力短缺率（就业率+广义职位空缺率-劳动力参与率）较上月有所回升，但整体仍然呈下降趋势，显示加息对劳动力供需的缺口继续改善，供需错位现象持续缓解。从平均时薪来看，2月美国私营部门平均小时工资为34.57美元，略高于前值34.52美元，2月平均时薪环比上升0.14%，为2022年12月以来新低，其中，商品生产部门平均时薪环比增速为0.11%，低于前值的0.43%。服务业部门平均时薪环比增速为0.15%，低于前值0.56%。总体来看，2月美国就业数据喜忧参半，一方面非农新增就业持续强劲，另一方面失业率升至2022年1月以来的最高位。非农数据公布后，芝商所Fed Watch工具显示美联储6月降息的概率从此前的56.8%上升至57.4%。除了本次公布偏高的失业率外，2月密歇根消费者信心指数、ISM制造业PMI等经济指标都不及预期，较前值都有所下降，显示美国经济增长势头正在减弱。此前鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会听证会表示充分意识到过晚降息的风险，距离对降息有信心不是很远，预计将出现由商业地产引发的（中小）银行倒闭。我们认为在劳动力市场供需错位现象持续缓解、高利率环境可能给经济带来潜在风险的情况下，美联储可能会在6月开始预防式降息，后续仍需关注2月的通胀数据。风险提示：美联储加息超预期，地缘政治影响超预期。', 'content': 'Event: On March 8, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released February non-agricultural data. The number of new non-farm jobs in February was 275,000, higher than market expectations of 200,000. The previous value was revised down from 353,000 to 229,000. Investment points: Judging from the breakdown of data, the number of jobs in commodity production increased by 19,000. Among them, the largest contributor was the 23,000 new jobs in the construction industry, which was positive for 11 consecutive months. The new jobs in the mining industry were the same as the previous value, and the manufacturing industry fell by 4,000. The number of new jobs in the service industry was 204,000, the largest value added since June 2023. Among them, the education and health services industry (+85,000), which is not sensitive to interest rates, still contributed the largest growth, the leisure and hotel industry (+58,000) has the largest new value since June 2023, and the transportation and warehousing industry (+20,000) people), retail (+19,000), professional and business services (+09,000) and other industries all showed positive growth. At the same time, the U.S. unemployment rate was 3.9% in December, higher than expected and the previous value of 3.7%, a new high since January 2022. The labor shortage rate (employment rate + broad job vacancy rate - labor force participation rate) in January rebounded from the previous month, but the overall trend is still downward, indicating that the gap between labor supply and demand caused by interest rate hikes continues to improve, and the mismatch between supply and demand continues to ease. In terms of average hourly wages, the average hourly wage in the U.S. private sector in February was US$34.57, slightly higher than the previous value of US$34.52. The average hourly wage in February increased by 0.14% month-on-month, a new low since December 2022. Among them, the commodity production sector The average hourly wage growth rate was 0.11% month-on-month, lower than the previous value of 0.43%. The average hourly wage growth in the service sector was 0.15% month-on-month, lower than the previous value of 0.56%. Overall, U.S. employment data in February were mixed. On the one hand, new non-agricultural employment continued to be strong, and on the other hand, the unemployment rate rose to the highest level since January 2022. After the non-agricultural data was released, the CME Group Fed Watch tool showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June rose to 57.4% from the previous 56.8%. In addition to the relatively high unemployment rate reported this time, economic indicators such as the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and ISM Manufacturing PMI in February were lower than expected and fell from the previous values, indicating that the momentum of U.S. economic growth is weakening. Previously, Powell stated at the Senate Banking Committee hearing that he is fully aware of the risks of cutting interest rates too late, and is not far away from having confidence in interest rate cuts. It is expected that there will be (small and medium-sized) bank failures caused by commercial real estate. We believe that as the mismatch between supply and demand in the labor market continues to ease and the high interest rate environment may bring potential risks to the economy, the Federal Reserve may begin a precautionary interest rate cut in June. We will still need to pay attention to the inflation data in February. Risk warning: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates more than expected, and the impact of geopolitics exceeded expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('8ca1f13c-5904-515d-b780-96d04864f029'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8699199482798576, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'B6PV9UFQABE1PN18GHPJKTBLOJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:40:42 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'B6PV9UFQABE1PN18GHPJKTBLOJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('be26dfbd-66d9-5d6d-9f9c-0669fa8af040'), 'title': 'Policy Monthly Report No. 7: What are the new developments in stabilizing growth?', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Zhang Yunjie', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elwbv1092DcccbPaELqW0gA4=', 'researcher': '赵伟,张云杰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000369443'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elwbv1092DcccbPaELqW0gA4=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626416449_1.pdf?1710231477000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626416449_1.pdf?1710231477000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Policy Monthly Report No. 7: What are the new developments in stabilizing growth?', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,张云杰', 'originalContent': '地方重大项目是各省层层筛选、政策重点支持的优质项目，在拉动地方经济增长、促进产业转型等方面具有重要意义，同时，重大项目具有政府重视度高、完成情况好、建设周期长等特点，是观察稳增长落地的重要参考。以浙江为例，其重大项目建设周期均在4年左右；且2023年广东、四川、福建等地重大项目完成进度超100%。截至2月底，全国共有18省市公布2024年重大项目年度投资规划、达7.9万亿元。广东、山东、浙江2024年重大项目年度投资计划规模均达万亿元，海南、内蒙古重大项目年度投资计划增速较高，分别为23%、16%。可比口径下，12省市2024年重大项目年度投资增速为4%、较2020、2023年两位数增速回落，高于2021-2022年3%的增速。从项目施工类型来看，可比口径下，续建、新建项目数量比例稳定在7/3，多地储备项目占实施类项目数量比超10%。可比口径下，地方重大项目续建、新建比例较为稳定，2024年占比分别为70.3%、29.7%，与2023年基本持平。从项目储备情况看，天津储备项目数量较多、占实施类项目比例近四分之一，福建、湖北、江苏储备项目占比超10%。二问：本轮稳增长，较过往有何不同？重心向产业倾斜、经济大省扛大梁、中央财政支持加码本轮稳增长重心进一步向产业发展倾斜。2024年地方对产业发展重视度进一步提升，部分重点化债省市将现代化产业体系建设作为稳增长的“新驱动”；四川、山东、江苏等2024年重大项目中，产业类项目占比升至65.7%、较2023年提升2.5个百分点；1-2月地方新增专项债亦有四成投向市政产业园领域、较2023年全年提升近10个百分点。地域间稳增长重心有所分化，部分经济大省重大项目投资规模维持较高水平，新增地方债额度更向经济大省倾斜。2024年初部分经济大省重大项目开工时间提前，且浙江、广东、江苏等经济大省重大项目年度投资维持较高规模。同时，新增专项债额度更向经济大省倾斜，13个经济大省2024年专项债提前批额度占比85%、高于2023年全年的64%。中央财政持续加码，超长期特别国债、中央预算对民间投资及耐用品消费以旧换新等支持政策持续推出。2024年起，超长期特别国债拟连续几年发行，2024年先发行一万亿元；同时，据国家发改委，中央预算内投资对民间投资项目支持力度可达60%，中央财经委员会第四次会议也提出“对消费品以旧换新，要坚持中央财政和地方政府联动”等。三问：稳增长落地，后续如何跟踪？围绕资金、项目、实物工作量三方面，宏微观指标相结合稳增���“三步走”，从资金加码至项目部署再到实物工作量落地，后续对稳增长落地进度的跟踪将围绕三方面开展。稳增长资金端，预算内万亿国债资金预算下达完毕、万亿超长期特别国债待发行，预算外PSL新增5000亿元等。2024年前两月，地方新增专项债发行仅4033亿元，或缘于新增专项债“提前批”额度下达较晚、万亿国债资金及项目先落地等因素。预算外，“准财政”已然加码，2023年12月和2024年1月PSL余额共新增5000亿元。稳增长项目端，微观层面代表性基建上市公司订单明显增长，宏观层面地方重大项目规划部分落地。微观层面，代表性基建央企新签订单额明显增长；水利、电力能源等细分领域订单变化或对当前基建投资重心转变具有一定指引意义。宏观层面，可比口径下地方重大项目年度投资增速为4%、较2023年高增速回落，但高于2021-2022年3%的增速。形成实物工作量方面，反映基建落地的高频指标春节后表现不及过往同期，或部分缘于极端天气干扰、复工复产推迟等因素。稳增长落地，月度数据可关注各地重大项目开工规模等，2024年1月各地重大项目开工投资额5.4万亿元，为2020年以来同期次高；但春节后石油沥青开工率不及过往，或部分缘于节后极端天气等因素干扰复工节奏。风险提示:经济复苏不及预期，政策落地效果不及预期。', 'content': 'Major local projects are high-quality projects that are screened at all levels by each province and supported by policies. They are of great significance in stimulating local economic growth and promoting industrial transformation. At the same time, major projects have the characteristics of high government attention, good completion status, and long construction cycle. , is an important reference for observing the implementation of stable growth. Taking Zhejiang as an example, the construction cycle of its major projects is about 4 years; and in 2023, the completion progress of major projects in Guangdong, Sichuan, Fujian and other places will exceed 100%. As of the end of February, 18 provinces and cities across the country had announced annual investment plans for major projects in 2024, amounting to 7.9 trillion yuan. The annual investment plans for major projects in Guangdong, Shandong, and Zhejiang in 2024 all reach one trillion yuan. The annual investment plans for major projects in Hainan and Inner Mongolia have higher growth rates, 23% and 16% respectively. On a comparable basis, the annual investment growth rate of major projects in 12 provinces and cities in 2024 is 4%, which is lower than the double-digit growth rate in 2020 and 2023, and higher than the 3% growth rate in 2021-2022. From the perspective of project construction types, on a comparable basis, the proportion of continued and new projects is stable at 7/3, and reserve projects in multiple places account for more than 10% of the number of implementation projects. On a comparable basis, the proportion of continued construction and new construction of major local projects is relatively stable, accounting for 70.3% and 29.7% respectively in 2024, basically the same as in 2023. Judging from the project reserve situation, Tianjin has a large number of reserve projects, accounting for nearly a quarter of the implementation projects, and Fujian, Hubei, and Jiangsu reserve projects account for more than 10%. Second question: How is this round of stable growth different from the past? The focus is tilted towards industry, with major economic provinces taking the lead, and the central government’s financial support has increased. This round of stabilizing growth has further tilted the focus towards industrial development. In 2024, local governments will pay more attention to industrial development, and some key debt-prone provinces and cities will regard the construction of modern industrial systems as a \"new driver\" for stable growth; among major projects in Sichuan, Shandong, and Jiangsu in 2024, the proportion of industrial projects will rise to 65.7%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from 2023; 40% of new local special bonds from January to February were invested in municipal industrial parks, an increase of nearly 10 percentage points from 2023. The focus of stabilizing growth has differentiated among regions. The scale of investment in major projects in some economically large provinces has remained at a relatively high level, and the amount of new local debt has been tilted towards the economically large provinces. At the beginning of 2024, the start date of major projects in some major economic provinces has been advanced, and the annual investment in major projects in major economic provinces such as Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Jiangsu has maintained a relatively high scale. At the same time, the new special bond quotas are more tilted towards economically prosperous provinces. The 13 economically prosperous provinces account for 85% of the special debt quotas approved in advance in 2024, which is higher than the 64% in 2023. The central government continues to increase funding, and continues to roll out support policies such as ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and the central budget for private investment and durable goods consumption trade-in. Starting from 2024, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are planned to be issued for several consecutive years, with one trillion yuan issued first in 2024. At the same time, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, the central budgetary investment can support 60% of private investment projects. The fourth report of the Central Financial and Economic Commission The meeting also proposed that \"when replacing old consumer goods with new ones, we must adhere to the linkage between the central finance and local governments.\" Third question: How to follow up on the implementation of stable growth? Focusing on the three aspects of funds, projects, and physical workload, macro and micro indicators are combined to stabilize growth in a \"three-step\" process, from increasing funds to project deployment and then to the implementation of physical workload. Subsequent tracking of the progress of stabilizing growth will be carried out around three aspects. . On the funding side for steady growth, the budget for trillions of government bonds within the budget has been released, trillions of super-long-term special government bonds are to be issued, and extra-budgetary PSL has increased by 500 billion yuan, etc. In the first two months of 2024, the issuance of new local special bonds was only 403.3 billion yuan, which may be due to factors such as the late release of the \"advance approval\" quota for new special bonds, trillions of government bond funds and projects being implemented first. Outside of the budget, \"quasi-fiscal\" has been increased, and the PSL balance in December 2023 and January 2024 will increase by a total of 500 billion yuan. On the stable growth project side, orders from representative infrastructure listed companies at the micro level have increased significantly, and major local project plans at the macro level have been partially implemented. At the micro level, the number of new orders signed by representative central enterprises in infrastructure construction has increased significantly; changes in orders in subdivided fields such as water conservancy and power energy may have certain guiding significance for the current shift in the focus of infrastructure investment. At the macro level, the annual investment growth rate of local major projects on a comparable basis is 4%, which is lower than the high growth rate in 2023, but higher than the 3% growth rate in 2021-2022. In terms of physical workload, the performance of high-frequency indicators reflecting the implementation of infrastructure after the Spring Festival was not as good as in the same period in the past, which may be partly due to factors such as extreme weather disturbances and delays in resumption of work and production. Stable growth has been achieved, and monthly data can focus on the scale of major project start-ups in various regions. In January 2024, the investment in major projects in various regions was 5.4 trillion yuan, the second highest in the same period since 2020; however, the start-up rate of petroleum asphalt after the Spring Festival was not as good as in the past, or some This is due to factors such as extreme weather after the holidays that interfere with the pace of resumption of work. Risk warning: The economic recovery is not as good as expected, and the effect of policy implementation is not as good as expected.', 'authorid': UUID('ff469869-b6c6-5748-a897-a67668ded608'), 'sentimentScore': 0.18996292632073164, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'C0POPTJMKT7QNM5O5IDRHI3I0BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:40:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'C0POPTJMKT7QNM5O5IDRHI3I0BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('18ce7728-6fe0-56a1-9d6c-15d0beba8d0e'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly: Looking at incremental policies from thematic press conferences', 'author': 'Cheng Qiang', 'orgName': '德邦证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000217', 'orgSName': '德邦证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elw2Pq0I3zl6eAvmKR3XSrx4=', 'researcher': '程强', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000296632'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elw2Pq0I3zl6eAvmKR3XSrx4=', 'site': 'Debon Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '德邦证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626416447_1.pdf?1710231334000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626416447_1.pdf?1710231334000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly: Looking at incremental policies from thematic press conferences', 'originalAuthor': '程强', 'originalContent': '经济主题记者会有哪些增量政策？1）在财政政策方面：今年积极的财政政策备受市场关注。财政政策3%的赤字率和4.06万亿的赤字规模的安排与我们《2024年地方两会观察与全国两会前瞻》中的展望基本一致。记者会重点投向领域的明确除了有助于经济结构的新旧动能转换，还能与准备研究推出的大规模设备更新政策打“组合拳”。此外，去年四季度增发的1万亿国债，由于发行时间靠后，因此有7000亿将在今年使用，贡献增量略超预期。同时，继续强调过紧日子要求，政府“三公”经费支出或将持续收紧。2）设备更新和消费品换新方面：根据发改委估算，设备更新的市场规模约为5万亿，耐用消费品更新换代的市场规模达万亿，按此规模测算，分别占到2023年全年GDP的4%和0.8%。3）资本市场方面：明确了资本市场的定位，强调要注重投融资平衡发展，在后续的建设上着力强调了三点：一是强调对投资者的保护，特别是中小投资者。二是强调提高上市公司质量。三是进一步完善基础制度。上一次大规模设备更新往事。我国上一轮鼓励消费品以旧换新要追溯到2008年12月国务院推广的“家电下乡”和2009年5月在“家电下乡”的基础上开展的汽车、家电“以旧换新”活动。主要是为了扩大国内需求，改善民生，拉动消费带动生产，促进经济平稳较快增长等。当前距2008年12月开始的“家电下乡”已有13余年，考虑到上一轮家电产品大部分已超使用年限存在安全隐患以及新一代家电产品的科技创新含量，启动新一轮消费品以旧换新非常必要，这有利于活跃国内消费经济循环，也有助于部分中游制造业的去库存和产能利用率提升。宏观数据跟踪。1）新能源去库存，价格战仍在延续。2月出现环比和同比剧烈下滑的重要原因是春节因素带来的节前消费时间差异，1月纯新能源车企的总体库存降到37万辆，其中新能源经销商渠道库存明显下降。2）今年3.8妇女节呈现出多元化的趋势，外出就餐、参加主题活动、逛街、看电影、看演唱会/livehouse等消费文娱活动更受欢迎。3）AI：全球AI产品全球总榜中，2月访问量涨跌分化。ChatGPT和NewBing访问量远超其他，全球APP增速榜中有国内的百度网盘和豆包上榜，其中豆包涨幅高达567%。4）出海短剧格局稳固，得益于较早布局海外，收入、下载量等数据与其他拉开断层式差距。投资建议：股市：随着两会日历效应和维稳需求的衰退，本轮快速的超跌反弹或将逐步走向阻力下的震荡行情，需要进一步检验后续的经济数据、宏观政策及市场预期。高赔率下，胜率能否有效提升是反转开启与否的关键，但目前并未见到宏观基本面在边际上的显著转暖，这意味着分子端仍较疲弱，而在增量资金入场料将逐步放缓的情形下，投资者预期与市场风险偏好可能仍将是扰动市场的关键因素。后市对本轮反弹的博弈或将逐步让位于基本面逻辑和产业逻辑等。债市：围绕长端下行空间的博弈激化，长端利率波动可能阶段性放大。从债券借贷情况来看，年后到3月8日，10Y230026借贷集中度由38.9%上升48.3%，30Y230023借贷集中度由16.2%上升至32.9%，在长端利率不断创历史新低的情况下，继续做多面临的压力也不断增大，多空分歧依然相当大，需警惕短期内长端利率波动放大的风险，或可适当缩短久期，静待高波动阶段过去。商品：当前商品价格高位震荡，海外降息预期增强以及购金需求增长之下，金价有望继续上行。而在海外宏观利好共振和国内需求有望恢复向好的综合影响下，预计大宗商品整体延续持稳上行的走势。同时，红海局势依旧紧张，地缘政治风险仍存或进一步形成支撑。风险提示：政策支持力度不及预期；政策落地不及预期；经济复苏进程不及预期', 'content': 'What incremental policies will there be for economic journalists? 1) In terms of fiscal policy: This year’s proactive fiscal policy has attracted market attention. The fiscal policy\\'s 3% deficit rate and 4.06 trillion deficit scale arrangement are basically consistent with the outlook in our \"2024 Local Two Sessions Observation and National Two Sessions Forecast\". The clarification of the key investment areas at the press conference will not only help the transformation of the economic structure into new and old driving forces, but can also be combined with the large-scale equipment renewal policy that is being studied and launched. In addition, of the 1 trillion additional treasury bonds issued in the fourth quarter of last year, 700 billion will be used this year due to the later issuance time, and the incremental contribution slightly exceeds expectations. At the same time, the government continues to emphasize the need to live a tight life, and the government\\'s \"three public services\" expenditures may continue to be tightened. 2) Equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement: According to estimates by the National Development and Reform Commission, the market size of equipment renewal is about 5 trillion, and the market size of durable consumer goods replacement is trillions. Calculated based on this scale, they will account for 10% of the annual GDP in 2023. 4% and 0.8%. 3) Capital market: It clarified the positioning of the capital market, emphasized the need to pay attention to the balanced development of investment and financing, and emphasized three points in subsequent construction: First, it emphasized the protection of investors, especially small and medium-sized investors. The second is to emphasize improving the quality of listed companies. The third is to further improve the basic system. The last large-scale device update is a thing of the past. The last round of encouraging trade-in of consumer goods in my country can be traced back to the “Home Appliances to the Rural Areas” campaign promoted by the State Council in December 2008 and the “Old-for-New” campaign for automobiles and home appliances carried out on the basis of the “Home Appliances to the Rural Areas” program in May 2009. The main purpose is to expand domestic demand, improve people\\'s livelihood, stimulate consumption to drive production, and promote stable and rapid economic growth. It has been more than 13 years since the \"Home Appliances to the Countryside\" program started in December 2008. Considering that most of the previous round of home appliances have exceeded their useful life and have safety hazards, as well as the technological innovation content of the new generation of home appliances, a new round of consumer goods trade-in has been launched. It is very necessary, which is conducive to activating the domestic consumption economic cycle, and will also help destocking and increasing capacity utilization in some midstream manufacturing industries. Macro data tracking. 1) New energy is being destocked and the price war is still continuing. An important reason for the sharp month-on-month and year-on-year declines in February was the difference in pre-holiday consumption time caused by the Spring Festival. In January, the overall inventory of pure new energy vehicle companies dropped to 370,000 vehicles, of which the inventory in new energy dealer channels dropped significantly. 2) This year’s March 8th Women’s Day shows a diversified trend. Consumer entertainment activities such as dining out, participating in theme activities, shopping, watching movies, and attending concerts/livehouses are more popular. 3) AI: In the global list of global AI products, the number of visits in February varied. ChatGPT and NewBing have far more visits than others. Domestic Baidu Netdisk and Doubao are on the global APP growth list, with Doubao increasing by as much as 567%. 4) The pattern of overseas short dramas is stable. Thanks to its early overseas deployment, data such as revenue and downloads have widened the gap with others. Investment advice: Stock market: With the calendar effect of the two sessions and the decline in demand for stability, this round of rapid oversold rebound may gradually move towards a volatile market under resistance. Further testing of subsequent economic data, macro policies and market expectations is required. Under high odds, whether the winning rate can be effectively improved is the key to whether the reversal starts. However, we have not yet seen a significant improvement in the macro fundamentals at the margin, which means that the molecular end is still weak, and in terms of incremental funds, With admissions expected to gradually slow down, investor expectations and market risk appetite may remain key factors disturbing the market. The market outlook for this round of rebound may gradually give way to fundamental logic and industrial logic. Bond market: The game surrounding the long-term downside space has intensified, and fluctuations in long-term interest rates may increase in stages. Judging from the bond lending situation, from the end of the year to March 8, the loan concentration ratio of 10Y230026 increased from 38.9% to 48.3%, and the loan concentration ratio of 30Y230023 increased from 16.2% to 32.9%. With long-term interest rates continuing to hit record lows, The pressure to continue to go long is also increasing, and the differences between long and short are still quite large. We need to be wary of the risk of amplified fluctuations in long-term interest rates in the short term. We may shorten the duration appropriately and wait for the high volatility phase to pass. Commodities: With current commodity prices fluctuating at high levels, rising expectations of overseas interest rate cuts and growing demand for gold purchases, gold prices are expected to continue to rise. Under the combined influence of the positive overseas macro resonance and the expected recovery of domestic demand, commodities are expected to continue a steady upward trend as a whole. At the same time, the situation in the Red Sea remains tense, and geopolitical risks still exist or may provide further support. Risk warning: policy support is less than expected; policy implementation is less than expected; economic recovery process is less than expected', 'authorid': UUID('a2700561-8738-5acf-b44a-342784ba77a6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6845169831067324, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GH7PG12N3DVD2L3RPD70ALFMUJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:40:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GH7PG12N3DVD2L3RPD70ALFMUJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8ab7df19-d9a8-5941-a031-a5893f582c35'), 'title': 'Comments on February inflation data: Under the influence of the Spring Festival, the performance of CPI and PPI diverges', 'author': 'Yu Tianxu', 'orgName': '万联证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000187', 'orgSName': '万联证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el4JFr+3457r0NPnEmPV87Bw=', 'researcher': '于天旭', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000348537'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el4JFr+3457r0NPnEmPV87Bw=', 'site': 'Wanlian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '万联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626364237_1.pdf?1710229375000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626364237_1.pdf?1710229375000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February inflation data: Under the influence of the Spring Festival, the performance of CPI and PPI diverges', 'originalAuthor': '于天旭', 'originalContent': '事件：2月CPI同比0.7%，前值-0.8%，环比1%；PPI同比-2.7%，前值-2.5%，环比-0.2%。CPI增速转正，食品项、服务项价格大幅上行，核心CPI同比走高。食品项、服务同比由分别上行5、1.4个pct至-0.9%、1.9%，核心CPI同比上行0.8个百分点至1.2%。食品价格季节性上行，猪肉同比明显拉升，水果、蔬菜价格同环比均大幅上行。受到春节错位和需求季节性增加的影响，2月猪价同环比明显抬升，未来产能将继续保持去化。果蔬价格显著拉升，春节和部分地区雨雪天气为主要影响。牛羊肉、蛋类、食用油价格同比回落，粮食、烟草价格整体保持平稳，酒类价格同比下滑。非食品项中，汽车价格同比保持低位，春节假期带动出行、旅游相关服务需求，但房租、家庭服务保持低位。汽车降价促销尚未结束，交通工具分项同比由-5.6%小幅上行为-5.4%。服务项分项表现具有一定差异，春节假期出行、娱乐需求显著增加，机票、旅游、住宿价格均有所上涨。教育、家庭服务增速持平，房租价格小幅回落，务工人员集中返乡带来一定影响。PPI同比回落，加工工业-原材料工业剪刀差转正。工业品价格水平仍处于低位，PPI上行动力不足。生产资料中，采掘工业同比上行，加工和原材料工业同比回落，但原材料下行幅度偏大，两者剪刀差缩窄。生活资料中，耐用消费品、衣着、食品类同比增速均有所上行。黑色金属、有色金属产业链价格持续下滑，下游制造业价格依然较为低迷。采掘业中，煤炭开采和洗选业为同比主要拉动项，石油和天然气开采业也有所上行。春节期间地产、基建等工程建设停工，带来钢材、水泥等产品需求回落，价格有所下行。整体中下游行业需求不足的问题依然存在，价格波动小于上游行业，春节期间停工给工业生产带来一定影响。通胀短期仍将保持温和，春节影响将逐步消退。2月春节影响下，CPI和PPI的表现明显分化，背后是居民食品、服务消费和工业开工带来的走势差异。虽然2月CPI明显反弹，但春节过后服务类消费面临边际转弱的压力，居民消费旺盛的可持续性依然有待观察。当前猪肉产能保持去化，但猪肉价格大幅反弹的风险有限，CPI或延续低位温和的态势。随着3月基建、地产等复工复产，工业品需求有望边际好转，但上行幅度依然相对有限。我国积极的财政政策将发力提振内需，政策也开始关注价格问题，短期CPI驱动依然较为有限，随着经济的修复，价格提振仍需时间，低基数也将给CPI带来一定推力。风险因素：海外经济政策节奏和幅度超预期，居民消费回暖可持续性有待观察，原油价格上行幅度超��期。', 'content': \"Event: CPI in February was 0.7% year-on-year, -0.8% previous value, and 1% month-on-month; PPI was -2.7% year-on-year, -2.5% previous value, and -0.2% month-on-month. The CPI growth rate turned positive, the prices of food items and services increased significantly, and the core CPI increased year-on-year. Food items and services increased by 5 and 1.4 percentage points year-on-year to -0.9% and 1.9% respectively, and core CPI increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 1.2%. Food prices have risen seasonally, with pork prices rising significantly year-on-year, and fruit and vegetable prices rising sharply year-on-month. Affected by the misalignment of the Spring Festival and the seasonal increase in demand, the price of pigs in February increased significantly year-on-month, and production capacity will continue to be reduced in the future. The price of fruits and vegetables has increased significantly, mainly affected by the Spring Festival and rain and snow weather in some areas. The prices of beef, mutton, eggs, and edible oils fell year-on-year, the prices of grain and tobacco remained stable overall, and the prices of alcohol fell year-on-year. Among non-food items, car prices remained low year-on-year. The Spring Festival holiday drove demand for travel and tourism-related services, but rents and household services remained low. The car price reduction promotion has not yet ended, and the transportation sub-category increased slightly from -5.6% to -5.4% year-on-year. There are certain differences in the performance of service items. The demand for travel and entertainment increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday, and the prices of air tickets, tourism, and accommodation all increased. The growth rates of education and household services have remained flat, rent prices have fallen slightly, and the return of migrant workers to their hometowns has had a certain impact. PPI fell year-on-year, and the scissor difference between the processing industry and the raw material industry turned positive. The price level of industrial products is still at a low level, and the upward momentum of PPI is insufficient. Among the means of production, the mining industry rose year-on-year, while the processing and raw material industry fell year-on-year. However, the decline in raw materials was relatively large, and the scissor gap between the two narrowed. Among daily necessities, the year-on-year growth rates of consumer durables, clothing, and food all increased. Prices in the ferrous and non-ferrous metal industry chains continue to decline, and prices in the downstream manufacturing industry remain relatively sluggish. In the mining industry, the coal mining and washing industry was the main driver year-on-year, and the oil and natural gas mining industry also experienced an upward trend. During the Spring Festival, the construction of real estate, infrastructure and other projects was suspended, which brought about a drop in demand for steel, cement and other products, and prices fell. The problem of insufficient demand in the overall midstream and downstream industries still exists, and price fluctuations are smaller than those in the upstream industries. The shutdown during the Spring Festival has a certain impact on industrial production. Inflation will remain moderate in the short term, and the impact of the Spring Festival will gradually fade. Under the influence of the Spring Festival in February, the performance of CPI and PPI was obviously divergent. Behind this was the difference in trends brought about by residents' food and service consumption and industrial start-up. Although CPI rebounded significantly in February, service consumption faced marginal weakening pressure after the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of strong household consumption remains to be seen. The current pork production capacity remains reduced, but the risk of a sharp rebound in pork prices is limited, and the CPI may continue to remain low and moderate. With the resumption of work and production in infrastructure, real estate, etc. in March, demand for industrial products is expected to improve marginally, but the upward trend is still relatively limited. my country's active fiscal policy will work hard to boost domestic demand, and policies have also begun to pay attention to price issues. The short-term CPI drive is still relatively limited. With the recovery of the economy, it will still take time to boost prices, and the low base will also bring some impetus to CPI. Risk factors: The pace and scope of overseas economic policies exceed expectations, the sustainability of the recovery in household consumption remains to be seen, and the rise in crude oil prices exceeds expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('f09132a4-2048-5601-aef1-20be35dfd0c9'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9120943211019039, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TOFVCT8D8K38M4IF4S6ISQFPVBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:40:50 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TOFVCT8D8K38M4IF4S6ISQFPVBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b26b89d5-c120-5e72-84ab-72ddffa37fec'), 'title': 'Special report: Observing liquidity changes from the perspective of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet (2)', 'author': 'Ding Peizhou, Huang Tian', 'orgName': '国投安信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066669', 'orgSName': '国投安信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el7pp1yNmN0lIYaFj3HdUmxU=', 'researcher': '丁沛舟,黄恬', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000224020', '11000425032'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el7pp1yNmN0lIYaFj3HdUmxU=', 'site': 'SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投安信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626361133_1.pdf?1710253658000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626361133_1.pdf?1710253658000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Special report: Observing liquidity changes from the perspective of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet (2)', 'originalAuthor': '丁沛舟,黄恬', 'originalContent': '相关阅读：以美联储资产负债表视角观察流动性变化（一）2020年3月，为了应对疫情可能带来的经济危机，联邦基金利率区间快速降至0%-0.25%。美国通过货币政策配合巨量财政刺激，重启量化宽松。财政赤字货币化拉动了美国经济，但政府债务飙升随之而来。2020年底美国的公共债务约21万亿美元，同增约4.2万亿，而美联储持有的美债约6.7万亿，同增约2.4万亿。2020年，公共持有的债务占美国GDP比重已高达99.78%。另一方面，只要美联储不在公开市场上抛售债券资产，这些以购债形式撒向市场的钱，已成为了事实上的新增货币。量化宽松导致基础货币增加是否一定引发通货膨胀并无定论，但2021年美国CPI同比开始攀升，2022年最高达到9.3%。美联储不得不正视管理通胀的问题，更重要的是，在管理通胀的同时保证就业以及维护金融稳定的问题。2022年3月美联储启动加息，6月开始缩表，2023年下半年开始美联储已经停止加息，并将在3月议息会议上讨论QT相关事宜。美联储QT的方式是“被动式”的，即有计划地停止到期债务展期。自2022年6月1日开始，前三个月国债、MBS分别以每月300、175亿美元的速度缩减，之后分别提高到每月600亿、350亿美元。如果每月到期的附息国债数额低于缩减的目标值，则通过到期的短期国债补充。缩表的影响在资产端表现为国债和MBS余额下降，而在负债端，TGA、储备金和逆回购则表现各异。在探究缩表进程以及流动性变化以及之前，需要先提及美联储的货币政策框架以及美国货币市场的结构。调节联邦基金利率（FederalFundRate，FFR）及其目标区间是美联储实施货币政策的主要手段。在金融危机之前，美联储执行的是稀缺准备金框架（ScarceReserves），通过“走廊体系”控制FFR的上下沿，其中FFR的下沿是储备金利率（Interestrateonreserve，IOR），上沿是贴现利率（DiscountRate，DR）。在稀缺准备金框架下，美联储将准备金利率设置为零，并通过公开市场操作来调节准备金供应，从而令EFFR运行于目标区间内。2008年之后，大放水导致流动性泛滥，银行准备金余额远超准备金要求和应对支付冲击的需求，美联储难以再通过准备金供应的改变去调节FFR，于是转向充足准备金框架（AmpleReserves）——通过调整准备金利率为FFR设置下限——也就是“地板”体系。如果FFR低于超额准备金利率（interestrateonexcessreserve，IOER），银行会选择将资金放入美联储而不是到银行间市场借出，由此IOER成为FFR的下限。但实际中EFFR往往在IOER下方运行，这是因为随着银行资产负债表的扩大，资产负债表的成本也会增加，银行借入边际储备金所要求的利率就会低一些。另一方面，银行间市场的参与者还有FHLBs、房地美、房利美这样的GSEs，它们手里的流动性无法在美联储获得IOER，因此愿意以低于IOER的利率在银行间市场借出，所以EFFR实际上低于IOER运行。2013年美联储推出了面向货币基金、GSEs等非银机构的隔夜逆回购（ONRRP）工具，目的是吸收这些机构手里的冗余流动性。这样一来，非银机构手里的资金就有了ONRRP作为托底，因此ONRRP成为了FFR事实上的“地板”利率。2021年7月29日，美联储以IORB取代了IOER和IORR，EFFR维持在IORB和ONRRP之间运行。', 'content': 'Related reading: Observing liquidity changes from the perspective of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet (1) In March 2020, in order to cope with the economic crisis that may be caused by the epidemic, the federal funds rate range was quickly lowered to 0%-0.25%. The United States has restarted quantitative easing through monetary policy combined with massive fiscal stimulus. Monetizing the fiscal deficit boosted the U.S. economy, but soaring government debt followed. At the end of 2020, the public debt of the United States was approximately US$21 trillion, an increase of approximately 4.2 trillion year-on-year, while the US debt held by the Federal Reserve was approximately 6.7 trillion, an increase of approximately 2.4 trillion US dollars year-on-year. In 2020, publicly held debt accounted for 99.78% of U.S. GDP. On the other hand, as long as the Fed does not sell bond assets in the open market, the money poured into the market in the form of bond purchases has become de facto new money. It is not clear whether the increase in base money caused by quantitative easing will definitely trigger inflation. However, the U.S. CPI will begin to rise year-on-year in 2021, reaching a maximum of 9.3% in 2022. The Fed has to face up to the problem of managing inflation, and more importantly, managing inflation while ensuring employment and maintaining financial stability. The Fed started raising interest rates in March 2022 and began shrinking its balance sheet in June. The Fed has stopped raising interest rates since the second half of 2023 and will discuss QT-related matters at the March interest rate meeting. The Fed\\'s QT approach is \"passive\", that is, it systematically stops the rollover of maturing debt. Starting from June 1, 2022, Treasury bonds and MBS decreased at a rate of US$30 billion and US$17.5 billion per month respectively in the first three months, and then increased to US$60 billion and US$35 billion per month respectively. If the amount of monthly maturing interest-bearing Treasury bonds falls below the reduction target, it will be supplemented by maturing short-term Treasury bonds. The impact of balance sheet shrinkage is manifested in the decline in the balance of government bonds and MBS on the asset side, while on the liability side, TGA, reserves and reverse repurchases have different performances. Before exploring the balance sheet reduction process and liquidity changes, we need to first mention the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy framework and the structure of the U.S. money market. Adjusting the federal funds rate (Federal Fund Rate, FFR) and its target range are the main means by which the Federal Reserve implements monetary policy. Before the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve implemented a scarce reserve framework (ScarceReserves) and controlled the upper and lower edges of FFR through the \"corridor system\". The lower edge of FFR was the reserve interest rate (Interestrateonreserve, IOR), and the upper edge was the discount rate (DiscountRate). ,DR). Under the scarce reserves framework, the Fed sets the reserve interest rate to zero and adjusts reserve supply through open market operations to keep EFFR within the target range. After 2008, large-scale water supply led to flooding of liquidity, and bank reserve balances far exceeded reserve requirements and the need to cope with payment shocks. The Fed could no longer adjust FFR through changes in reserve supply, so it turned to the adequate reserve framework (AmpleReserves) - — Setting a lower limit for FFR by adjusting the reserve interest rate—that is, the “floor” system. If the FFR is lower than the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER), banks will choose to put funds in the Federal Reserve instead of lending them to the interbank market, so IOER becomes the lower limit of FFR. However, in practice, EFFR often runs below IOER. This is because as banks\\' balance sheets expand, the cost of the balance sheet will also increase, and the interest rate required by banks to borrow marginal reserves will be lower. On the other hand, participants in the interbank market include GSEs such as FHLBs, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae. The liquidity in their hands cannot obtain IOER from the Federal Reserve, so they are willing to borrow in the interbank market at an interest rate lower than IOER. out, so the EFFR is actually running lower than the IOER. In 2013, the Federal Reserve launched the Overnight Reverse Repurchase (ONRRP) facility for non-bank institutions such as monetary funds and GSEs, with the purpose of absorbing the redundant liquidity in the hands of these institutions. In this way, the funds in the hands of non-bank institutions have ONRRP as a backing, so ONRRP has become the de facto \"floor\" interest rate of FFR. On July 29, 2021, the Federal Reserve replaced IOER and IORR with IORB, and EFFR maintained its operation between IORB and ONRRP.', 'authorid': UUID('664769de-015d-5e1d-9e70-f4779d89caa1'), 'sentimentScore': -0.16178059577941895, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'E3E236AIDCPUQKKLLIMG6P8PSNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:40:53 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'E3E236AIDCPUQKKLLIMG6P8PSNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('67b7fb5b-9121-5588-95e9-a3d2317eead0'), 'title': 'Unemployment rate rises unexpectedly, expectations for Fed rate cut increase', 'author': 'Yu Qi', 'orgName': '致富证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80102269', 'orgSName': '致富证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BOdEwQY0R7SVWNMnedXzVi4=', 'researcher': '余琦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000352833'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BOdEwQY0R7SVWNMnedXzVi4=', 'site': 'CHIEF SECURITIES LIMITED', 'originalSite': '致富证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626264335_1.pdf?1710190193000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626264335_1.pdf?1710190193000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Unemployment rate rises unexpectedly, expectations for Fed rate cut increase', 'originalAuthor': '余琦', 'originalContent': '事件：2024年2月美国新增非农就业人数为27.5万人（上月新增22.9万人，市场预期增加20万人）。失业率为3.9%（上月3.8%，市场预期3.8%）；劳动参与率62.5%（上月62.5%，市场预期62.6%）；平均时薪同比上涨4.3%（上月上涨4.5%，市场预期4.4%），环比上涨0.1%（上月上涨0.6%，市场预期上涨0.3%）。点评：1、虽然2月美国非农新增就业人数27.5万人，高于市场预期20万人，但此前2个月就业数据大幅下调，其中1月就业数据从35.3万人大幅下调至22.9万人，2023年12月数据从33.3万人下调至29万人，前两个月就业数据总计下调16.7万人。此外，2月失业率3.9%高于市场预期，平均时薪环比增幅0.1%相比上月出现明显放缓，美国就业市场出现一定程度的降温迹象。2、2月美国非农新增就业人数主要来源是服务业，相比上月新增20.4万人，除了住宿餐饮外，主要来自与宏观经济关联度不大的教育保健和政府部门，后两项对整体新增的拉动贡献占比接近50%。具体来看，教育保健行业增加8.5万人，住宿餐饮行业增加5.8万人，政府部门增加5.2万人；贸易运输公用行业增加1.97万人，零售业增加1.87万人，商业服务业新增9000人，信息咨询业增加2000人。此外，建筑业新增2.3万人，制造业减少4000人。3、美国劳动力市场已经完全恢复至疫情之前水平，2月非农就业人数总计1.578亿，相比2020年2月增加549.9万人，增幅为3.61%。从分项数据来看，只有就业人数较少的采矿业相比疫情前仍存在6.43%的缺口，休闲住宿行业相比疫情前存在0.01%的小幅缺口，其他行业的就业人数都超过疫情前水平。具体来看，建筑业相比疫情前增加54.7万人，增幅为7.81%；制造业相比疫情前增加18.4万人，增幅为1.44%；运输仓储业相比疫情前增加73.2万人，增幅为12.7%；金融业相比疫情前增加36万人，增幅为4.06%；零售业相比疫情前增加12.6万人，增幅为0.81%；商业服务相比2019年同期增加149.4万人，增幅为6.97%；教育医疗相比疫情前增加144.6万人，增幅为5.88%；政府部门相比疫情前增加31.3万人，增幅为1.37%。结论：1、1月美国非农就业数据如我们此前预计出现了大幅下调（见《美国1月非农数据快评》），虽然2月非农就业数据高于预期，但主要来自与宏观经济关联度不大的教育保健和政府部门，加之2月失业率高于预期且达到两年高点，平均时薪增速明显下降，创2022年以来单月环比增幅最低。表明货币政策的时滞效应已经逐渐传导到就业市场，美国就业市场初现一定程度的降温迹象。2、鲍威尔上周在国会听证会上的发言偏鸽，表示如果通货膨胀回落趋势确定，美联储将在今年启动降息，同时联储非常清楚降息太晚的风险。目前CME交易所预测美联储3月不降息的概率高达96%，5月不降息的概率为76%，而6月开始降息的概率则高达72.8%。我们维持美联储将在二季度首次降息的判断，同时认为降息节奏会较为灵活，若经济数据出现快速变化，单次降息25bp或者50bp均有可能，全年降息幅度将在125-150bp。3、对未来大类资产价格走势，我们的判断是：美股近期连创新高，但一旦联储正式开启降息，反而有可能迎来一波调整。一季度美股围绕降息预期变化的震荡可能会加剧。美元指数近期持续回调，预计中期将维持100-105的震荡区间。十年期美债收益率2月以来由于降息预期下降，反弹至4%以上，但进入3月出现持续回落，预计近期跌破4%回到3.5-4%的区间震荡的概率较大。如我们此前提示，黄金价格近期已经突破���史新高，预计中期维持2000美元/盎司以上高位震荡的概率较大。', 'content': 'Event: In February 2024, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States was 275,000 (229,000 new jobs were added last month, and the market expected an increase of 200,000). The unemployment rate was 3.9% (3.8% last month, market expected 3.8%); the labor force participation rate was 62.5% (62.5% last month, market expected 62.6%); average hourly wages increased 4.3% year-on-year (up 4.5% last month, market expected) 4.4%), up 0.1% month-on-month (up 0.6% last month, market expected to rise 0.3%). Comments: 1. Although the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States was 275,000 in February, which was higher than market expectations of 200,000, the employment data in the previous two months were significantly lowered. Among them, the employment data in January was significantly lowered from 353,000 to 229,000. People, the data in December 2023 was revised down from 333,000 to 290,000, and the employment data in the first two months was revised down by a total of 167,000. In addition, the unemployment rate in February was 3.9% higher than market expectations, the average hourly wage increase of 0.1% month-on-month showed a significant slowdown compared to the previous month, and the U.S. job market showed signs of cooling to a certain extent. 2. The main source of new non-agricultural employment in the United States in February was the service industry, with an increase of 204,000 compared to the previous month. In addition to accommodation and catering, they mainly came from education, health care and government departments that have little connection with the macro economy. The latter two The contribution of the project to the overall new increase is close to 50%. Specifically, the education and health care industry increased by 85,000 people, the accommodation and catering industry increased by 58,000 people, and the government departments increased by 52,000 people; the trade, transportation and public utility industry increased by 19,700 people, the retail industry increased by 18,700 people, and the commercial service industry increased by 9,000 people. , the information consulting industry increased by 2,000 people. In addition, the construction industry added 23,000 people and the manufacturing industry decreased by 4,000 people. 3. The U.S. labor market has fully returned to pre-epidemic levels. Non-farm employment totaled 157.8 million in February, an increase of 5.499 million or 3.61% compared to February 2020. Judging from the breakdown of data, only the mining industry, which has a small number of employees, still has a gap of 6.43% compared to before the epidemic. The leisure accommodation industry has a small gap of 0.01% compared to before the epidemic. The number of employees in other industries has exceeded the pre-epidemic level. . Specifically, the construction industry has an increase of 547,000 people compared with before the epidemic, an increase of 7.81%; the manufacturing industry has an increase of 184,000 people, an increase of 1.44% compared with before the epidemic; the transportation and warehousing industry has an increase of 732,000 people compared with before the epidemic, an increase of 1.44%. 12.7%; the financial industry increased by 360,000 people compared with before the epidemic, an increase of 4.06%; the retail industry increased by 126,000 people compared with before the epidemic, an increase of 0.81%; commercial services increased by 1.494 million people compared with the same period in 2019, an increase of 697 %; education and medical services increased by 1.446 million people compared with before the epidemic, an increase of 5.88%; government departments increased by 313,000 people compared with before the epidemic, an increase of 1.37%. Conclusion: 1. The U.S. non-farm employment data in January was significantly lowered as we previously expected (see \"Quick Review of U.S. Non-Farm Employment Data in January\"). Although the February non-farm employment data was higher than expected, it was mainly due to macroeconomic factors. In the education, health care and government sectors that are not closely related, and the unemployment rate in February was higher than expected and reached a two-year high, the growth rate of average hourly wages dropped significantly, hitting the lowest monthly growth rate in a single month since 2022. This shows that the time lag effect of monetary policy has gradually been transmitted to the job market, and the U.S. job market is showing signs of cooling to a certain extent. 2. Powell’s speech at a congressional hearing last week was dovish, saying that if the downward trend in inflation is confirmed, the Fed will start cutting interest rates this year. At the same time, the Fed is very aware of the risk of cutting interest rates too late. The CME Exchange currently predicts that the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in March is as high as 96%, the probability of not cutting interest rates in May is 76%, and the probability of starting to cut interest rates in June is as high as 72.8%. We maintain our judgment that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in the second quarter. We also believe that the pace of interest rate cuts will be more flexible. If economic data changes rapidly, a single interest rate cut of 25bp or 50bp is possible, and the annual rate cut will be between 125-150bp. 3. Regarding the future price trends of major asset classes, our judgment is that the U.S. stock market has hit new highs in recent times, but once the Federal Reserve officially starts cutting interest rates, it may usher in a wave of adjustments. The volatility of U.S. stocks around changes in interest rate cut expectations may intensify in the first quarter. The U.S. dollar index has continued to correct recently and is expected to maintain a range of 100-105 in the medium term. Since February, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has rebounded to above 4% due to declining expectations for interest rate cuts. However, it has continued to fall in March. It is expected that there is a high probability of falling below 4% in the near future and returning to the 3.5-4% range. As we have previously reminded, gold prices have recently broken through record highs, and it is expected that there is a high probability of maintaining high levels above US$2,000 per ounce in the medium term.', 'authorid': UUID('591fee66-cf6b-525f-a7bd-20c63c98a0b9'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9110997468233109, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'HEA5ERR04J7KKPI2THMU32BIAVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:40:56 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'HEA5ERR04J7KKPI2THMU32BIAVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f1293484-92e3-51e0-bd38-1434686716c2'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Weekly Report: Guosen Macro Diffusion Index still points to a weak economy and low interest rates', 'author': 'Li Zhizhi, Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BGELa032TV6/A5ZGZWzPE/Y=', 'researcher': '李智能,董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245053', '11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BGELa032TV6/A5ZGZWzPE/Y=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626224730_1.pdf?1710177018000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626224730_1.pdf?1710177018000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Weekly Report: Guosen Macro Diffusion Index still points to a weak economy and low interest rates', 'originalAuthor': '李智能,董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点国信宏观扩散指数仍指向经济偏弱，利率偏低。本周国信高频宏观扩散指数A转为负值，指数B有所回落。从分项来看，本周消费领域景气变化不大，投资、房地产领域景气有所回落。从季节性比较来看，本周指数B标准化后有所下行，表现逊于历史平均水平，国内经济增长向上动力仍偏弱。基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率和股票价格仍偏低，预计下周（2024年3月15日所在周）十年期国债利率、上证综合指数将上行。周度价格高频跟踪方面：（1）本周食品价格下跌，非食品价格上涨。预计2024年3月CPI食品环比约为-3.0%，非食品环比约为-0.1%，CPI整体环比约为-0.6%，3月CPI同比或回落至0.4%。（2）2月上旬国内流通领域生产资料价格小幅回落，中、下旬持续回升。预计2024年3月国内PPI环比在零附近，3月PPI同比或持平上月的-2.7%。风险提示：政策刺激力度减弱，经济增速下滑。', 'content': \"The core view is that the Guosen Macro Diffusion Index still points to a weak economy and low interest rates. Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative this week, and Index B fell back. From a sub-item perspective, there was little change in the consumer sector this week, while the investment and real estate sectors fell back. From a seasonal comparison point of view, index B has declined this week after normalization, and its performance is worse than the historical average. The upward momentum of domestic economic growth is still weak. Forecasting asset prices based on the Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index shows that current domestic interest rates and stock prices are still low. It is expected that the ten-year government bond interest rate and the Shanghai Composite Index will rise next week (the week of March 15, 2024). Weekly price high-frequency tracking: (1) Food prices fell this week, while non-food prices rose. It is expected that in March 2024, the CPI for food will be approximately -3.0% month-on-month, the month-on-month for non-food will be approximately -0.1%, and the overall CPI will be approximately -0.6% month-on-month. The CPI in March may fall back to 0.4% year-on-year. (2) Prices of means of production in the domestic circulation sector fell slightly in early February and continued to rise in the middle and late February. It is expected that the domestic PPI in March 2024 will be close to zero month-on-month, and the PPI in March may be the same as last month's -2.7% year-on-year. Risk warning: Policy stimulus will weaken and economic growth will decline.\", 'authorid': UUID('92623406-8214-5e94-84f7-458373c02882'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9629369955509901, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8RSDIRTRSROSEQR31BIEHKMSJ3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:40:59 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8RSDIRTRSROSEQR31BIEHKMSJ3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c9b7150c-4c20-59bb-b4dc-c718e63ad747'), 'title': 'Domestic high-frequency indicator tracking (Issue 8, 2024)', 'author': 'Z Honghu Ali Ang,Amber Zhou', 'orgName': '海通国际证券集团有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001968', 'orgSName': '海通国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BBxvTKbYfmEYafAO4HUp00c=', 'researcher': 'Zhonghua Liang,Amber Zhou', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000406832', '11000355042'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BBxvTKbYfmEYafAO4HUp00c=', 'site': 'Haitong International Securities Group Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '海通国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626217481_1.pdf?1710169802000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626217481_1.pdf?1710169802000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Domestic high-frequency indicator tracking (Issue 8, 2024)', 'originalAuthor': 'Zhonghua Liang,Amber Zhou', 'originalContent': '生产行业分化，地产承压、基建复工偏慢。消费方面，整体消费回归平淡，汽车、家电等耐用品消费，电影、旅游等服务消费均在小幅回落。投资方面，新房销售超季节性回落，当前仍在底部；基建资金到位或慢于往年，开工施工实物指标处于相对低位，这或是受前期政策影响，今年项目落地进度偏慢。进出口方面，港口船舶运转速度较快，或反映进出口需求相对较多。生产方面，传统型行业生产持续偏弱，新兴行业中光伏、汽车生产指标则均有回升，其中汽车行业景气度再创新高。库存方面，钢铁、沥青等建材逆季节性补库，或是今年需求相对偏弱。价格方面，消费品价格季节性回落，除建材外的工业品价格则小幅回升。流动性方面，美元指数回落至103点以下，人民币小幅升值。风险提示：稳增长政策不及预期。', 'content': \"The production industry is fragmented, real estate is under pressure, and infrastructure resumption is slow. In terms of consumption, overall consumption has returned to flatness. The consumption of durable goods such as cars and home appliances, and the consumption of services such as movies and tourism have all declined slightly. In terms of investment, new home sales have fallen super-seasonally and are still at the bottom; the arrival of infrastructure funds may be slower than in previous years, and the physical indicators of construction starts are at a relatively low level. This may be due to the impact of previous policies, and the progress of project implementation this year is slow. In terms of import and export, the faster movement of ships at the port may reflect the relatively large demand for import and export. In terms of production, production in traditional industries continues to be weak, while photovoltaic and automobile production indicators in emerging industries have rebounded, with the automobile industry's prosperity reaching a new high. In terms of inventory, steel, asphalt and other building materials are being replenished counter-seasonally, or demand is relatively weak this year. In terms of prices, consumer goods prices fell seasonally, while industrial product prices except building materials rebounded slightly. In terms of liquidity, the U.S. dollar index fell back below 103 points, and the RMB appreciated slightly. Risk warning: Policies to stabilize growth fall short of expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('21742a72-b2bd-533e-9f1a-c6fdb159a438'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9631604729220271, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '6O6NBD2BRR3US1JMAGEDL4VVIVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:02 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '6O6NBD2BRR3US1JMAGEDL4VVIVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('03d21493-ad1e-5201-b354-f400c866fa4f'), 'title': 'Weekly observation of major asset classes', 'author': 'Pu Zulin', 'orgName': '正信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80019274', 'orgSName': '正信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BKry4ILXdnXwpsxnyDkaTww=', 'researcher': '蒲祖林', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000438232'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BKry4ILXdnXwpsxnyDkaTww=', 'site': 'Zhengxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '正信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626216270_1.pdf?1710168202000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626216270_1.pdf?1710168202000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly observation of major asset classes', 'originalAuthor': '蒲祖林', 'originalContent': '大类资产周评：美国就业市场降温，中国宏观政策不及预期策略概述1、美国2月就业市场和服务业边际降温，金融市场演绎乐观降息预期，美债利率持续下行，实际利率回落驱动风险资产价格延续强劲涨势，关注本周美国2月CPI数据确认是否转折。2、国内两会召开释放宏观预期指引，高质量发展基调和超长期特别国债发行计划令市场预期分化，地产链条为主的传统经济承压，新质生产力为代表的新经济则预期收益，但总量层面政策力度仍不及市场预期，驱动国内风险资产价格纷纷下挫。短期货币供需中性偏紧，企业债务融资需求维持高位，资金价格边际趋紧。地产高频销售结构分化，新房和二手房劈叉，总量延续疲弱，制造业产能利用率内外需分化，经济复苏仍需更强宽财政政策刺激，随着特别国债发行资金逐步落地和两会后各地加速开工，经济有望逐步筑底企稳。投资要点美国通胀在高利率的约束下已经进入乐观区间，四季度GDP也开始见顶回落，美联储政策大概率已经确认进入降息周期前夕，美国经济将不可避免进入浅衰退或软着陆，短期经济反弹两个月后再度走弱，金融市场再度展开乐观降息预期，金融条件边际宽松驱动风险资产价格上涨，海外企业盈利边际下行令股市和商品承压。中国宏观需求仍显不足，制造业减产去库存，库存低位和供需双弱，企业利润趋稳，关注2月货币融资数据表现。本周大类资产配置方面建议回调做多风险资产（股票）和回调做多避险资产（国债）进行配置，权益风格预计成长占优，关注结构性机会；商品预计震荡走弱，建议回调做多配置农产品和有色等工业品，反弹做空黑色和化工相关工业品；利率短期新低后有望超跌反弹，建议急跌做多十债、五债或多短空长套利，美国实际利率高位回调，驱动贵金属价格历史新高，短期有超买回调风险，建议持多或减仓黄金和白银多单。风险提示美国通胀和就业扰动、国内实体经济恢复不及预期、地缘军事冲突', 'content': \"Weekly Review of Major Assets: The U.S. job market cooled, and China’s macroeconomic policies fell short of expectations Strategy Overview 1. The U.S. job market and service industry cooled marginally in February, and the financial market interpreted optimistic interest rate cut expectations. U.S. bond interest rates continued to decline, and the fall in real interest rates drove risk assets Prices continue to rise strongly, and attention will be paid to whether the U.S. CPI data for February confirms a turning point this week. 2. The convening of the domestic two sessions released macro expected guidance. The high-quality development tone and the ultra-long-term special treasury bond issuance plan have divided market expectations. The traditional economy dominated by the real estate chain is under pressure, and the new economy represented by new productive forces is expected to gain, but overall The intensity of quantitative policies is still less than market expectations, driving the prices of domestic risk assets to fall one after another. Short-term money supply and demand are neutral, corporate debt financing needs remain high, and capital prices are marginally tight. The high-frequency sales structure of real estate is differentiated, with new and second-hand houses split, the total volume continues to be weak, the utilization rate of manufacturing capacity is divided between domestic and foreign demand, and economic recovery still needs stronger fiscal policy stimulus. By accelerating the start of construction, the economy is expected to gradually bottom out and stabilize. Investment Points: U.S. inflation has entered an optimistic range under the constraints of high interest rates. GDP has also begun to peak and fall in the fourth quarter. The Federal Reserve policy has most likely confirmed that on the eve of entering an interest rate cut cycle, the U.S. economy will inevitably enter a shallow recession or soft landing and a short-term economic rebound. It weakened again two months later. The financial market once again launched optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts. Marginal easing of financial conditions drove the price of risky assets to rise. The profit margin of overseas companies declined, which put pressure on the stock market and commodities. China's macroeconomic demand is still insufficient. The manufacturing industry has reduced production and destocked. Inventories are low and supply and demand are weak. Corporate profits have stabilized. Pay attention to the performance of February's monetary financing data. In terms of asset allocation this week, it is recommended to go long risk assets (stocks) and long safe-haven assets (treasury bonds) after a callback. The equity style is expected to grow and focus on structural opportunities. Commodities are expected to fluctuate and weaken, so it is recommended to go long a callback. Allocate more to agricultural products, non-ferrous metals and other industrial products, and short black and chemical-related industrial products on rebound; interest rates are expected to rebound after hitting new lows in the short term. It is recommended to go long on ten bonds, five bonds or long short-short and long-term arbitrage after a sudden drop. The real interest rate in the United States has been pulled back from the high level. It has driven the price of precious metals to record highs, and there is a risk of overbought correction in the short term. It is recommended to hold long or reduce long positions in gold and silver. Risk reminder: U.S. inflation and employment disruptions, domestic real economy recovery less than expected, geo-military conflicts\", 'authorid': UUID('aebc7166-97b8-5419-ad05-d62abbd6b41f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8772300854325294, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '84OC3P20F8VRDGI1DMAQPSNRCNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '84OC3P20F8VRDGI1DMAQPSNRCNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ef2ce826-e965-5c2a-846a-76a67207d0ab'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: The two sessions set development goals, and trade performance was better than expected', 'author': 'Zheng Jianxin', 'orgName': '国贸期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80004615', 'orgSName': '国贸期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BOlwsW3PVWP4v7vk9j8Iu98=', 'researcher': '郑建鑫', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245638'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BOlwsW3PVWP4v7vk9j8Iu98=', 'site': 'Guomao Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国贸期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215646_1.pdf?1710166876000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215646_1.pdf?1710166876000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: The two sessions set development goals, and trade performance was better than expected', 'originalAuthor': '郑建鑫', 'originalContent': '观点展望后市：内外需定价的商品走势分化。内需定价类商品：弱现实与政策预期的摇摆。一方面，春节后，国内需求恢复明显弱于预期，尤其是房地产的销售和开工明显弱于预期，拖累黑色系为代表的内需定价类商品的表现；另一方面，国内稳增长政策持续加码，两会确认发行超长期国债、提升专项债额度，货币政策保持宽松，将有望提振未来的需求预期。外需定价类商品：今年以来，各国制造业PMI普遍大幅回升，发达经济边际改善幅度明显好于新兴市场，同时，欧美央行降息预期此起彼伏，全球需求回暖叠加货币宽松预期带动外需定价类的商品表现偏强。不过，当前欧美经济增长趋缓、商品需求偏弱的基本趋势不变，反弹的持续性或将受到制约。核心逻辑（1）本周国内商品继续震荡上行，一是，受供给收缩和需求改善预期的提振，农产品板块涨幅居前；二是，受欧美央行降息预期升温的影响，美元指数回落，叠加供给端面临扰动，基本金属震荡上行。不过，受国内需求偏弱（尤其是房地产）的影响，黑色系商品走势较弱。（2）政府工作报告明确发展目标，前两月贸易表现好于预期。1）今年经济增速目标定在5%左右，考虑到低基数效应消退，今年要实现5%的增速目标难度有所提升，政策基调将更加积极，预计2024年经济将��续复苏态势，或呈现出前稳后升态势。2）按美元计价，1-2月出口累计同比7.1%，进口累计同比3.5%，均好于预期和前值。今年以来，各国制造业PMI普遍大幅回升，发达经济边际改善幅度明显好于新兴市场，全球需求回暖，带动我国出口明显改善。展望后市，当前欧美经济增长趋缓、商品需求偏弱的基本趋势不变，但欧美经济仍有一定韧性。因此，海外经济的不确定性将对后续我国对外贸易造成持续的影响。去年出口基数明显升高，或将影响短期的出口增速表现。（3）美国非农就业总量强劲，欧央行按兵不动。1）2月新增非农就业升至27.5万，失业率升至3.9%，平均时薪环比降至0.1%。综合这些劳动力市场指标来看，美国劳动力市场仍然处于走弱但是韧性较强的态势。结合近期美联储官员的表态来看，预计2月非农数据对当前美联储的决策影响或有限，相较于单月数据美联储当前或更加关注就业数据的趋势性变化，同时还需密切关注后续通胀数据。2）欧洲央行公布3月利率决议，如预期一致维持欧央行三大主要利率不变。会议下调未来两年通胀预测值，称降通胀取得良好进展。行长拉加德在新闻发布会上表示，“市场预期似乎正在更好地趋同”，暗示当前市场押注6月首次降息的可取性。', 'content': 'Viewpoint: Looking forward to the market outlook: The trends of commodities that require pricing at home and abroad are divergent. Domestic demand priced goods: weak reality and swings in policy expectations. On the one hand, after the Spring Festival, the recovery of domestic demand was significantly weaker than expected, especially the sales and construction starts of real estate were significantly weaker than expected, dragging down the performance of domestically priced commodities represented by black series; on the other hand, domestic stabilizing growth policies continued to increase, The Two Sessions confirmed the issuance of ultra-long-term government bonds, increased quotas for special bonds, and maintained loose monetary policy, which is expected to boost future demand expectations. External demand pricing commodities: Since the beginning of this year, manufacturing PMIs in various countries have generally rebounded sharply, and the marginal improvement of developed economies has been significantly better than that of emerging markets. At the same time, expectations of interest rate cuts by European and American central banks have emerged one after another, and the rebound in global demand coupled with expectations of monetary easing have driven the performance of external demand pricing commodities to be biased. powerful. However, the current basic trends of slowing economic growth and weak commodity demand in Europe and the United States remain unchanged, and the sustainability of the rebound may be restricted. Core logic (1) Domestic commodities continued to fluctuate upward this week. First, boosted by expectations of contraction in supply and improvement in demand, the agricultural product sector led the gains; second, affected by rising expectations of interest rate cuts by European and American central banks, the U.S. dollar index fell back, superimposing The supply side faces disturbances, and base metals fluctuate upward. However, affected by weak domestic demand (especially real estate), the trend of black products is weak. (2) The government work report clearly stated development goals, and trade performance in the first two months was better than expected. 1) This year’s economic growth target is set at around 5%. Considering that the low base effect has subsided, it will be more difficult to achieve the 5% growth target this year. The policy tone will be more positive. It is expected that the economy will continue to recover in 2024, or Showing a trend of stabilizing before rising and then rising. 2) In terms of US dollars, the cumulative exports from January to February were 7.1% year-on-year, and the cumulative imports were 3.5% year-on-year, both better than expected and the previous value. Since the beginning of this year, the manufacturing PMI of various countries has generally rebounded significantly. The marginal improvement of developed economies has been significantly better than that of emerging markets. The rebound in global demand has led to a significant improvement in my country\\'s exports. Looking forward to the market outlook, the current basic trends of slowing economic growth and weak demand for goods in Europe and the United States remain unchanged, but the European and American economies still have certain resilience. Therefore, overseas economic uncertainty will have a lasting impact on my country\\'s subsequent foreign trade. The export base increased significantly last year, which may affect short-term export growth performance. (3) The total non-farm employment in the United States is strong, and the European Central Bank is on hold. 1) New non-agricultural employment rose to 275,000 in February, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, and the average hourly wage dropped to 0.1% month-on-month. Based on these labor market indicators, the U.S. labor market is still weakening but resilient. Judging from recent statements by Federal Reserve officials, it is expected that the impact of February\\'s non-farm payroll data on the current Fed\\'s decision-making may be limited. Compared with single-month data, the Fed may pay more attention to trend changes in employment data. It also needs to pay close attention to subsequent inflation data. . 2) The European Central Bank announced its March interest rate decision, keeping the three major interest rates of the European Central Bank unchanged as expected. The meeting lowered the inflation forecast for the next two years and said that good progress has been made in reducing inflation. President Lagarde said at a press conference that \"market expectations appear to be converging better,\" suggesting that the market is currently betting on the desirability of a first interest rate cut in June.', 'authorid': UUID('a9121ac9-9180-5a0d-b04f-77adb31c9370'), 'sentimentScore': -0.952887206338346, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'DO02U9BRTSHBENKFFL4QRNND8JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:07 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'DO02U9BRTSHBENKFFL4QRNND8JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8429411b-7322-591b-b268-a66e9e2ad404'), 'title': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm employment in February: employment and unemployment both rise, wage growth slows', 'author': 'Cai Rui, Li Shaojin', 'orgName': '交银国际证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80101832', 'orgSName': '交银国际证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BI1wv+xxQqqe0EY5S0GcVGM=', 'researcher': '蔡瑞,李少金', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000442439', '11000445033'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BI1wv+xxQqqe0EY5S0GcVGM=', 'site': 'BOCOM International Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '交银国际证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215472_1.pdf?1710166462000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215472_1.pdf?1710166462000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm employment in February: employment and unemployment both rise, wage growth slows', 'originalAuthor': '蔡瑞,李少金', 'originalContent': '美国2月非农新增就业27.5万人，再超预期20万人，前值修正至22.9万人。2月失业率升至3.9%，高于预期和前值3.8%。劳动参与率62.5%，与上月一致，但低于预期62.6%。2月平均时薪同比增速回落至4.3%，低于预期4.4%以及前值4.5%；平均时薪环比增速降至0.1%，低于预期0.3%和前值0.6%；平均每周工时回升至34.3，与预期持平，高于前值34.1。2月非农新增就业数据仍强劲，但前两月数据大幅下修。美国2月非农新增就业27.5万人，仍超预期20万人。此前两月数据大幅下修，2023年12月就业人数在上月大幅上修至33.3万人后，于本月再下修至29万人；1月新增就业由35.3万人大幅下修至22.9万人。修正后，前两月新增就业合计下修16.7万人。我们在上月报告曾提及1月新增就业大超预期可能一定程度受季节性招聘变化影响，特别是零售商在假期裁员的数量低于预期。2月新增就业仍较为强劲，反映企业仍在积极招聘。行业分布上，2月新增就业主要在医疗健康、政府等宏观敏感度不高的行业。医疗健康（+6.7万人）高于过去12个月平均的5.8万人。政府（+5.2万人）与过去12个月平均的5.3万人相当。食品（+4.2万人），社会救助（+2.4万人），建筑（+2.3万人）变化不大，而专业及商业服务就业大幅下降了3.1万人。家庭调查数据则出现明显降温。1）供给端略有回升。2月适龄工作人口增加17万人，劳动力人口增15万人，使得劳动力参与率接近维持不变。同时，失业人口大增33.4万人，使得失业率升至3.9%。2）需求端变化不大，职位空缺数略降至886万人，就业缺口维持在270万人附近，职位空缺数与失业人数之比仍在1.4附近，高于疫情前的1.2。薪资增速明显降温，工作时长略有增加。2月平均时薪同比增速回落至4.3%，低于预期4.4%；时薪环比增速降至0.1%，低于预期0.3%，以及上月的0.6%。1月时薪环比大幅增长主要源于恶劣天气导致平均工作时长缩短，抬高了平均时薪。2月平均每周工时有所回升，使得时薪增速略有回落。但整体上，时薪增速仍明显偏高，且高于美联储合意的3.5%的水平。2月非农���增就业好坏参半，降息预期略有上升。利率期货市场隐含的加息概率显示，3月维持利率不变的概率几无变化；2024年5月降息25基点概率升至34.5%，而就业数据公布前为26.7%。市场押注6月开始降息，且完全定价7月降息25个基点，而对2024年全年降息幅度的押注在3-4次。后市观察：近日美联储主席鲍威尔在两院听证会上表示，距离有信心开始降息“不远”了，而2月就业数据显示继续放缓的迹象也一定程度上助长了市场乐观降息预期。我们认为非农就业整体仍较为稳健，对降息走势影响可能仍较为有限。同时，美国将于3月12日公布2月通胀数据，由于1月CPI超预期上涨，作为美联储3月FOMC会议前的最后一份重要参考数据，其对降息路径指引的重要性不言而喻，仍需密切关注。', 'content': 'The United States added 275,000 non-farm jobs in February, exceeding expectations by 200,000. The previous value was revised to 229,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February, higher than expected and the previous value of 3.8%. The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, consistent with last month, but lower than expected at 62.6%. The average hourly wage growth in February fell back to 4.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous value of 4.5%; the average hourly wage growth fell to 0.1% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.6%; average weekly working hours It rose back to 34.3, which was in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 34.1. The new non-agricultural employment data in February was still strong, but the data in the first two months were significantly revised down. The United States added 275,000 non-farm jobs in February, still exceeding expectations by 200,000. The data for the previous two months were significantly downwardly revised. The number of employed people in December 2023 was revised downwards to 290,000 this month after being significantly upwardly revised to 333,000 last month. The number of new jobs in January was significantly downwardly revised from 353,000 to 333,000. 229,000 people. After the revision, the total number of new jobs in the first two months was revised downward by 167,000. We mentioned in last month\\'s report that the larger-than-expected increase in new jobs in January may be affected to some extent by changes in seasonal hiring, especially as the number of layoffs by retailers during the holidays was lower than expected. New jobs were still relatively strong in February, reflecting that companies are still actively hiring. In terms of industry distribution, new jobs in February were mainly in industries with low macro sensitivity, such as medical health and government. Healthcare (+67,000) was above the 58,000 average over the past 12 months. Government (+52,000) was on par with the 53,000 average over the past 12 months. Food (+42,000), social assistance (+24,000), and construction (+23,000) showed little change, while professional and business services employment fell sharply by 31,000. Household survey data showed a significant cooling. 1) The supply side has picked up slightly. In February, the working-age population increased by 170,000, and the labor force population increased by 150,000, keeping the labor force participation rate close to unchanged. At the same time, the number of unemployed people increased significantly by 334,000, causing the unemployment rate to rise to 3.9%. 2) The demand side has not changed much. The number of job vacancies has dropped slightly to 8.86 million, the employment gap has remained around 2.7 million, and the ratio of job vacancies to the number of unemployed people is still around 1.4, which is higher than 1.2 before the epidemic. Wage growth has cooled significantly, and working hours have increased slightly. Average hourly wage growth in February fell back to 4.3% year-on-year, lower than the 4.4% expected; hourly wage growth fell to 0.1% month-on-month, lower than the 0.3% expected, and 0.6% last month. The sharp month-on-month increase in hourly wages in January was mainly due to the shortening of average working hours due to bad weather, which increased average hourly wages. Average weekly hours worked rebounded in February, causing hourly wage growth to slow slightly. But overall, hourly wage growth is still significantly higher and higher than the 3.5% level desired by the Federal Reserve. New non-agricultural employment in February was mixed, and expectations for an interest rate cut increased slightly. The implied probability of an interest rate hike in the interest rate futures market shows that the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in March has barely changed; the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in May 2024 has risen to 34.5%, compared with 26.7% before the employment data was released. The market is betting on interest rate cuts to begin in June, and is fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut in July, while betting on the extent of interest rate cuts throughout 2024 will be 3-4 times. Market Outlook Observation: Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at a hearing in both houses of Congress that it is \"not far\" away from confidence to start cutting interest rates, and February employment data showed signs of continued slowdown, which to a certain extent fueled the market\\'s optimistic interest rate cut expectations. We believe that overall non-farm employment is still relatively stable, and the impact on interest rate cuts may still be limited. At the same time, the United States will release February inflation data on March 12. Due to the unexpected rise in CPI in January, as the last important reference data before the Federal Reserve’s March FOMC meeting, its importance in guiding the path of interest rate cuts is self-evident. , still needs close attention.', 'authorid': UUID('2427af0c-0a21-5003-abde-02bb4ca518e3'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9252306558191776, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '266AD958BNBE8K0IONB8G3SN9JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:09 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '266AD958BNBE8K0IONB8G3SN9JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('176cb6ce-62f7-515b-b253-55bf46889004'), 'title': 'U.S. Economy: Employment is cooling modestly, the Fed may cut interest rates in June', 'author': 'Ye Bingnan, Liu Zehui', 'orgName': '招银国际金融有限公司', 'orgCode': '80027629', 'orgSName': '招银国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BH15dkqBhtY27l3jRqKifB4=', 'researcher': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000395738', '11000444841'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BH15dkqBhtY27l3jRqKifB4=', 'site': 'CMB International Capital Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招银国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215475_1.pdf?1710170204000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215475_1.pdf?1710170204000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. Economy: Employment is cooling modestly, the Fed may cut interest rates in June', 'originalAuthor': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'originalContent': '美国2月新增非农就业人数继续超预期，但往月下修幅度大于预期。薪资增速有所放缓，失业率小幅抬升。美国就业市场仍然稳健，近一半的新增就业持续来自医疗服务与政府部门等受经济周期影响较小的行业，其他行业就业呈现温和放缓迹象。总体来看，就业整体依然偏强，但失业率小幅抬升与薪资增速放缓令就业市场维持在支持消费稳健扩张，但不至于导致通胀重新反弹的健康区间，美联储对通胀实质性趋近2%的信心不断累积。就业数据发布后，市场强化6月降息的预期，10年国债收益率短暂下跌后最高升至近4.1%。我们预计2Q24可能见到就业和通胀进一步降温，美联储可能在6月开始降息，全年降息1个百分点。预计PCE通胀将从2023年的3.7%降至2024年的2.5%。新增非农就业超预期但往月下修幅度大于预期，就业市场将逐渐降温。2月新增非农就业人数达到27.5万人，大幅高于市场预期的20万人。但近两月的新增就业人数下修16.7万人，1月和12月分别下修12.4和4.3万人至22.9和29万人。私营部门新增22.3万人就业，较1月的17.7万人有所增长。分行业来看，商品生产新增就业1.9万人，服务业新增就业20.4万，政府部门新增就业5.2万人。商品生产中，建筑业增加了2.3万人，但制造业共计减少了4千人。服务业就业保持强劲扩展，医疗保健与社会救助以及休闲与酒店业分别新增就业9.1和5.8万人。1个月后就业扩散指数从61.8%增加至62.6%，说明就业增长在更加广泛的行业中呈现。每周工时上升0.1至34.3小时。非农私人企业薪资增速有所回落，平均时薪环比增速从1月的0.52%降至0.14%，同比增速从4.4%小幅下降至4.3%，仍显著高于2%通胀目标隐含的3.5%的合宜薪资增速（假设劳动生产率增速1.5%）。由于工作时长增加和时薪延续增长，家庭收入增长继续跑赢通胀，支撑美国消费韧性。美国就业市场仍然稳健，但近一半的新增就业持续来自医疗服务与政府部门等受经济降温影响较小的行业，其他行业就业呈现温和放缓迹象。展望未来，随着美联储紧缩政策的滞后效应逐渐显现，就业市场将有所降温，新增非农就业与薪资增速将逐步放缓。失业率小幅上升，持续失业金申请人数不断增加。美国2月失业率从1月的3.7%小幅提高至3.9%，显示劳动市场的放缓趋势。劳动参与率连续3月保持在62.5%，其中16-24岁劳动���与率下降0.4个百分点至55.9%，疫情后迟迟未恢复的55岁以上劳动参与率保持在38.5%。1月最后一周的初次申请失业金人数保持在21.7万人，过去四周移动平均值仍在历史低位。持续领取失业金人数不断增加达到190.6万人，与过去四周移动平均均为21年末以来最高。美国企业裁员水平仍在历史低位，但招工节奏正在不断放缓。就业数据支持美联储降息讨论，或在6月开始降息。美联储票委从1月的强调需要确定通胀稳定回到2%再降息到近期开始密集谈论合适降息时间，显示美联储态度转向。总体来看，就业整体依然偏强，但小幅抬升的失业率与放缓的薪资增速使就业市场维持在支持消费稳健扩张但又不导致通胀重新反弹的健康区间。美联储启动降息周期的条件是核心PCE通胀进一步下降和失业率进一步上升，预计2Q24可能见到经济降温的数据拐点。我们预计美联储可能在6月开始降息，全年降息幅度可能为1个百分点。', 'content': \"The number of new non-farm payroll jobs in the United States in February continued to exceed expectations, but the downward revision in previous months was larger than expected. Wage growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has increased slightly. The U.S. job market remains robust, with nearly half of new jobs continuing to come from industries less affected by the economic cycle, such as medical services and government sectors, while employment in other industries shows signs of a mild slowdown. Overall, employment is still relatively strong, but the slight increase in the unemployment rate and the slowdown in wage growth have kept the job market in a healthy range that supports the steady expansion of consumption but will not cause inflation to rebound again. The Federal Reserve's view on inflation is substantially approaching 2 % confidence continues to accumulate. After the employment data was released, the market strengthened expectations for a June interest rate cut, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield briefly fell to a maximum of nearly 4.1%. We expect to see further cooling in employment and inflation in 2Q24, and the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates in June, cutting interest rates by 1 percentage point throughout the year. PCE inflation is expected to fall from 3.7% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024. New non-agricultural employment exceeded expectations, but the downward revision in previous months was larger than expected, indicating that the job market will gradually cool down. The number of new non-farm jobs in February reached 275,000, significantly higher than market expectations of 200,000. However, the number of new jobs in the past two months was revised down by 167,000, and in January and December it was revised down by 124,000 and 43,000 to 229,000 and 290,000, respectively. The private sector added 223,000 jobs, up from 177,000 in January. In terms of industries, 19,000 new jobs were created in commodity production, 204,000 new jobs were created in the service industry, and 52,000 new jobs were created in government departments. In the production of goods, the construction industry increased by 23,000 people, but the manufacturing industry decreased by 4,000 people in total. Employment in the service industry maintained strong expansion, with the health care and social assistance and leisure and hotel industries adding 91,000 and 58,000 new jobs respectively. One month later, the employment diffusion index increased from 61.8% to 62.6%, indicating that employment growth occurred in a wider range of industries. Weekly working hours increased by 0.1 to 34.3 hours. The wage growth rate of non-agricultural private enterprises has slowed down, with the month-on-month growth rate of average hourly wages falling from 0.52% in January to 0.14%, and the year-on-year growth rate falling slightly from 4.4% to 4.3%, which is still significantly higher than the 2% inflation target implies. A reasonable wage growth rate of 3.5% (assuming labor productivity growth of 1.5%). As working hours increase and hourly wages continue to rise, household income growth continues to outperform inflation, supporting the resilience of U.S. consumption. The U.S. job market remains solid, but nearly half of new jobs continue to come from industries less affected by the economic cooling, such as medical services and government sectors, while employment in other industries shows signs of a mild slowdown. Looking ahead, as the lagging effects of the Fed's tightening policy gradually emerge, the job market will cool down, and new non-farm employment and wage growth will gradually slow down. The unemployment rate rose slightly, and the number of people applying for continuing unemployment benefits continued to increase. The U.S. unemployment rate increased slightly to 3.9% in February from 3.7% in January, indicating a slowdown in the labor market. The labor participation rate has remained at 62.5% for three consecutive months, with the labor participation rate among those aged 16-24 falling by 0.4 percentage points to 55.9%. The labor participation rate among those aged 55 and above, which has yet to recover after the epidemic, remained at 38.5%. Initial jobless claims in the last week of January remained at 217,000, and the moving average over the past four weeks remains at historically low levels. The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits continues to increase to 1.906 million, which is the highest since the end of 2021 compared with the moving average of the past four weeks. The level of layoffs in U.S. companies is still at a historically low level, but the pace of hiring is slowing down. The employment data supports the Federal Reserve's discussion of interest rate cuts, which may begin in June. The Fed's voting committee went from emphasizing the need to ensure that inflation stabilizes back to 2% before cutting interest rates in January to recently beginning to intensively discuss the appropriate time to cut interest rates, indicating a change in the Fed's attitude. Overall, employment remains strong, but the slightly rising unemployment rate and slowing wage growth keep the job market within a healthy range that supports steady expansion of consumption but does not lead to a rebound in inflation. The conditions for the Fed to start the interest rate cut cycle are a further decline in core PCE inflation and a further increase in the unemployment rate. It is expected that 2Q24 may see an inflection point in economic cooling. We expect that the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates in June, and the rate cut for the whole year may be 1 percentage point.\", 'authorid': UUID('08f97a71-1879-5f33-a1aa-79c7a17d8bf9'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8036630377173424, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'N3MOVTTBSPVTJC7K462I810LFVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:12 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'N3MOVTTBSPVTJC7K462I810LFVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f71ae89d-ee8c-51d1-9c07-608a059cfcb2'), 'title': 'Market Liquidity Weekly Report', 'author': 'Xu Wei', 'orgName': '宏信证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000150', 'orgSName': '宏信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BLZBBWYPMUU7oWzbi0TReUQ=', 'researcher': '徐伟', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000234031'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BLZBBWYPMUU7oWzbi0TReUQ=', 'site': 'Horizon Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '宏信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215460_1.pdf?1710166462000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215460_1.pdf?1710166462000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Market Liquidity Weekly Report', 'originalAuthor': '徐伟', 'originalContent': '公开市场操作：2024年3月4日-3月8日，央行公开市场开展逆回购操作投放500亿元，逆回购到期11640亿元，总计实现净回笼11140亿元。本周预计将有500亿元逆回购到期，4810亿元MLF到期。货币市场：截至3月8日，银行间同业拆借加权平均利率较3月1日变动3.55BP至1.85%，质押式回购加权平均利率较3月1日变动1.10BP至1.85%；短期利率方面，隔夜shibor、1周shibor、2周shibor、1个月shibor分别为1.7200%、1.8480%、2.0030%、2.0870%，较3月1日分别变动2.60BP、4.20BP、1.70BP、-0.10BP；中期利率方面，3个月shibor、6个月shibor、9个月shibor、1年shibor分别为2.1600%、2.2070%、2.2470%、2.2600%，较3月1日分别变动-2.20BP、-3.90BP、-2.40BP、-3.00BP。国债市场：截至3月8日，1个月期、3个月期、6个月期、1年期、3年期、5年期、10年期、30年期国债到期收益率分别为1.5307%、1.5819%、1.6641%、1.7525%、2.0906%、2.2089%、2.2825%、2.4335%，较3月1日分别变动8.68BP、-4.61BP、-2.44BP、-3.08BP、-4.99BP、-5.43BP、-8.50BP、-5.80BP。外汇市场：截至3月8日，美元兑人民币中间价较3月1日下行81BP至7.0978；美元兑人民币即期汇率较3月1日下行67BP至7.1918，较中间价高940BP；美元兑离岸人民币即期汇率较3月1日下行91BP至7.2008，较在岸即期汇率高90BP。', 'content': 'Open market operations: From March 4 to March 8, 2024, the central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations in the open market, investing 50 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchases expired at 1,164 billion yuan, achieving a total net withdrawal of 1,114 billion yuan. This week it is expected that 50 billion yuan of reverse repos and 481 billion yuan of MLF will expire. Money market: As of March 8, the weighted average interest rate of inter-bank lending increased by 3.55 BP from March 1 to 1.85%, and the weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase increased by 1.10 BP from March 1 to 1.85%; in terms of short-term interest rates , the overnight shibor, 1-week shibor, 2-week shibor, and 1-month shibor were 1.7200%, 1.8480%, 2.0030%, and 2.0870% respectively, which were 2.60BP, 4.20BP, 1.70BP, and -0.10BP respectively compared with March 1; In terms of mid-term interest rates, the 3-month Shibor, 6-month Shibor, 9-month Shibor, and 1-year Shibor are 2.1600%, 2.2070%, 2.2470%, and 2.2600% respectively, which have changed by -2.20BP and -3.90BP respectively from March 1. , -2.40BP, -3.00BP. Treasury market: As of March 8, the yields to maturity of 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds are respectively 1.5307%, 1.5819%, 1.6641%, 1.7525%, 2.0906%, 2.2089%, 2.2825%, 2.4335%, respectively changed by 8.68BP, -4.61BP, -2.44BP, -3.08BP, -4.99BP, compared with March 1st. -5.43BP, -8.50BP, -5.80BP. Foreign exchange market: As of March 8, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB dropped 81 BP from March 1 to 7.0978; the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB dropped 67 BP from March 1 to 7.1918, which is 940 BP higher than the central parity rate; the US dollar against the offshore The RMB spot exchange rate dropped 91 BP from March 1 to 7.2008, which is 90 BP higher than the onshore spot exchange rate.', 'authorid': UUID('c273a69b-821f-57db-9d79-aac493ef6732'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8976400773972273, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OF5STS3L5EA710OFNNJO87PG0JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OF5STS3L5EA710OFNNJO87PG0JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('182b11e0-cee3-5f52-afc3-6df545a6aa2d'), 'title': 'Macro View: More evidence may be needed to price in job market weakness', 'author': 'Huang Fusheng, Gao Xiaojie', 'orgName': '中邮证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80036717', 'orgSName': '中邮证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BD6GmQ4GUEkmc6eBEdBGj0w=', 'researcher': '黄付生,高晓洁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172600', '11000460131'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BD6GmQ4GUEkmc6eBEdBGj0w=', 'site': 'China Post Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中邮证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215245_1.pdf?1710164335000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215245_1.pdf?1710164335000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro View: More evidence may be needed to price in job market weakness', 'originalAuthor': '黄付生,高晓洁', 'originalContent': '核心观点总体来说， 2 月美国的非农就业数据并不是一份“降息交易者”渴望的完美线索，尽管失业率、失业者结构和薪资增速支持更快的降息节奏，但新增就业人数、工作时长以及兼职人数却与前者给出的指引相左。 数据发布后，期货市场显示的 6 月降息的概率小幅提高，但我们认为定价就业市场的走弱或需要更多的证据。当前美国金融条件仍偏宽松，经济基本面较为健康，早降息的“好处”远小于二次通胀的“坏处”，在这样的情况下我们倾向于认为高利率水平维持的时间或超出市场预期。在就业报告内部数据指向矛盾以及美国商业银行工商业贷款增速触底回升的背景下，投资者继续定价他们愿意看到的结果：数据发布后美债收益率走低，美元走弱，黄金继续冲高。 而短暂脱离这样的惯性，警惕高利率的风险或许是当前更理性的思考。风险提示：美国就业市场超预期走弱；美联储降息节奏快于预期； 美国物价水平超预期回落；金融风险事件', 'content': 'Core Viewpoint Overall, February’s U.S. non-farm payrolls data is not the perfect clue that “interest rate cut traders” crave. Although the unemployment rate, the structure of the unemployed and wage growth support a faster pace of interest rate cuts, the number of new jobs The number of people, working hours and number of part-time workers are contrary to the guidance given by the former. Futures markets are pointing to a slight increase in the probability of a rate cut in June following the release of the data, but we believe more evidence may be needed to price in a weakening job market. At present, financial conditions in the United States are still relatively loose, the economic fundamentals are relatively healthy, and the \"benefits\" of an early interest rate cut are far less than the \"disadvantages\" of secondary inflation. Under such circumstances, we tend to believe that high interest rates may be maintained for longer than market expectations. Against the background of contradictory data within the employment report and the bottoming out of industrial and commercial loan growth by U.S. commercial banks, investors continue to price in the outcome they are willing to see: U.S. bond yields lower after the release of the data, the U.S. dollar weakens, and gold continues to rise. . To temporarily break away from such inertia and be wary of the risk of high interest rates may be a more rational thinking at the moment. Risk warning: The U.S. job market weakened more than expected; the Federal Reserve cut interest rates faster than expected; U.S. price levels fell more than expected; financial risk events', 'authorid': UUID('0c8defe7-9c05-5154-9a77-4cc49fb745c4'), 'sentimentScore': 0.11483877897262573, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OEBIAVDFO73PIIR2U25BPBFL1JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:18 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OEBIAVDFO73PIIR2U25BPBFL1JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5063ec3d-c7cf-550b-9448-23cb93d6adf9'), 'title': 'FICC & Asset Allocation Weekly Observation: The U.S. dollar interest rate curve is bullish and the international gold price reaches a new high', 'author': 'Li Pei,Xie Jianbin', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BC1bqQqsnaBp5ssAbDAkPso=', 'researcher': '李沛,谢建斌', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000337631', '11000192027'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BC1bqQqsnaBp5ssAbDAkPso=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626213915_1.pdf?1710163577000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626213915_1.pdf?1710163577000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'FICC & Asset Allocation Weekly Observation: The U.S. dollar interest rate curve is bullish and the international gold price reaches a new high', 'originalAuthor': '李沛,谢建斌', 'originalContent': '投资要点曲线牛平，利率依然交易“资产荒”。本周利率整体先下后上。周三午后央行行长潘功胜表示目前我国法定存款准备金率为7%，后续仍有降准空间。叠加债务置换区域范围相关舆情驱动，10Y及30Y国债收益率分别下破2.27%与2.45%，续创新低，较前一周周五下行近10bp。7Y-10Y利率一度倒挂。周四及周五受止盈需求、出口数据超预期及超长债监管舆情因素扰动，利率出现调整，10Y及30Y利率分别收于2.28%与2.43%。国债10Y-1Y利差降至53bp，较前一周下行超5bp。据统计局，2月CPI同比+0.7%由负转正，略强于季节性。两会确立中央政府加杠杆思路，再提资金“防空转”。两会视角看利率债供给，中央加杠杆路线确立，赤字规模进一步向中央政府倾斜。政府预算工作报告设立2024年赤字率为3%，赤字规模为4.06万亿元，其中中央赤字规模为3.34万亿元，占比为82.26%。其中特别万亿国债不纳入赤字管理。考虑5%的GDP增长目标及3%的CPI目标，以及未来每年“特别国债”的接续，两会政策的落地力度整体在预期范围内。二季度供给预期或构成短期扰动，但考虑地产景气收敛下的经济动能转型及下半年更为货币政策宽松可期，调整后债市将重新迎来配置窗口。二月央行在稳地产、稳汇率、防空转和稳息差中寻求平衡，MLF利率并未调降。当前资金利率水平仍然不低，后续资金利率能否顺畅下行需要关注3月MLF利率落地。金融、避险、商品属性共振，金价创历史新高。本周国际黄金价格上行超4%，周五COMEX黄金期货报收2186美元/盎司附近。2月下旬以来，金价的上行主要源于：（1）避险需求利多金价。纽约社区银行由于商业地产风险持续暴露，股价自2024年2月以来已下降近65%。3月7日，国际评级机构穆迪表示，已将其对纽约社区银行的评级审查方向从降级审查改为升级审查。此外，2023年为全球选举大年，美国、欧洲及俄罗斯等主要国家均有选举进行，地缘政治博弈催生避险需求支撑金价走高。（2）美债利率回落，金融属性提振金价。黄金作为不生息资产，其持有主要收益源于资本利得。当美债市场利率下行时，持有黄金的机会成本将下降，投资黄金的吸引力将上行。受近期鲍威尔中性偏鸽表态及银行风险事件影响，10Y美债利率自3月22日4.33%回落24bp至3月7日的4.09%，对金价形成提振。（3）商品属性及实物需求亦形成支撑。2024年2月末，中国央行黄金储备7258万盎司，环比增39万盎司，已为央行连续第16个月增持黄金储备。金��的强劲使黄金饰品实物消费需求热度不减。展望而言，2024H2伴随联储降息正式落地，金价仍有望续创新高。美元回落，美联储6月开启降息概率仍近7成。美国2月非农就业人口增加27.5万人，高于预期。2月美国失业率升至3.9%，结束连续3个月3.7%低位。当前美国潜在风险主要源于商业银行，回顾2023年3月硅谷银行SVB暴雷后，美联储启用BTFP流动性管理工具1650亿美元将于3月11日到期，指向中小银行或需被动提升存款利率吸储，也使商业银行失去“BTFP-准备金余额IORB”近50bp的潜在套利空间。当前美联储ONRRP使用规模不足5000亿美元，较2022年高位2.5万亿美元的水平大幅回落。指向美国市场流动性存在一定压力。据CMEFedWatch，市场预期6月和7月联储开启首次降息概率分别为73.4%与91.5%。日央行YCC退出预期有所升温，日元小幅升值。本周日元小幅升值超2%，美元兑日元报收147。3月7日，据日本厚生劳动省数据，1月日本名义现金收入同比增2%，高于前值0.8%及市场预期值1.2%。剔除物价影响后的实际薪资降0.6%，降幅小于预期，也是一年来的最低降幅。3月7日10Y日债利率升2bp至0.74%。后续仍然关注春斗结果。物价和薪资是否延续正循环将成为3月19日日央行利率决议的重要参考。风险提示：美国通胀回落速度不及预期、海外银行业危机蔓延、国际地缘摩擦超预期。', 'content': 'The investment point curve is flat, and interest rates are still trading in an \"asset shortage\". This week, interest rates generally fell first and then rose. On Wednesday afternoon, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the Central Bank, said that my country\\'s statutory deposit reserve ratio is currently 7%, and there is still room for subsequent RRR cuts. Driven by public opinion related to the debt replacement area, the yields of 10Y and 30Y government bonds fell below 2.27% and 2.45% respectively, continuing to hit new lows and falling by nearly 10bp from Friday the previous week. Interest rates were once upside down between 7Y and 10Y. On Thursday and Friday, interest rates were adjusted due to factors such as profit-stop demands, higher-than-expected export data and public opinion on ultra-long-term debt supervision. The 10Y and 30Y interest rates closed at 2.28% and 2.43% respectively. The interest rate spread of 10Y-1Y government bonds dropped to 53bp, a decrease of more than 5bp from the previous week. According to the Bureau of Statistics, the CPI in February turned from negative to positive at +0.7% year-on-year, which is slightly stronger than seasonal. The Two Sessions established the central government’s idea of \\u200b\\u200bincreasing leverage, and then mentioned the “anti-idling” of funds. Looking at the supply of interest rate bonds from the perspective of the two sessions, the central government’s policy of increasing leverage has been established, and the scale of the deficit is further tilted towards the central government. The government budget work report sets a deficit rate of 3% in 2024, with a deficit scale of 4.06 trillion yuan, of which the central government deficit is 3.34 trillion yuan, accounting for 82.26%. Among them, trillions of national debt are not included in deficit management. Considering the GDP growth target of 5% and the CPI target of 3%, as well as the continuation of \"special national debt\" every year in the future, the implementation of the policies of the two sessions is generally within the expected range. Supply expectations in the second quarter may constitute short-term disturbances, but considering the transformation of economic momentum due to the convergence of the real estate boom and the expectation of looser monetary policy in the second half of the year, the bond market will once again usher in an allocation window after adjustment. In February, the central bank sought a balance between stabilizing real estate, stabilizing exchange rates, preventing idling and stabilizing interest rate differentials, and the MLF interest rate was not lowered. The current funding interest rate level is still not low. Whether the subsequent funding interest rate can decline smoothly depends on the implementation of the MLF interest rate in March. Finance, hedging, and commodity attributes resonated, and the price of gold hit a record high. International gold prices rose by more than 4% this week, with COMEX gold futures closing at around US$2,186 per ounce on Friday. Since late February, the rise in gold prices has been mainly due to: (1) Safe-haven demand has been bullish for gold prices. New York Community Bank\\'s stock price has fallen nearly 65% \\u200b\\u200bsince February 2024 due to continued exposure to commercial real estate risks. On March 7, the international rating agency Moody\\'s stated that it had changed the direction of its rating review of New York Community Bank from a downgrade review to an upgrade review. In addition, 2023 is a global election year, with elections taking place in major countries such as the United States, Europe and Russia. Geopolitical games have generated safe-haven demand to support higher gold prices. (2) U.S. bond interest rates have fallen, and financial attributes have boosted gold prices. As a non-interest-bearing asset, the main income from holding gold comes from capital gains. When U.S. bond market interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold will fall, and the attractiveness of investing in gold will rise. Affected by Powell\\'s recent neutral-to-dovish stance and banking risk events, the 10Y U.S. bond interest rate fell by 24bp from 4.33% on March 22 to 4.09% on March 7, boosting gold prices. (3) Product attributes and physical demand also provide support. At the end of February 2024, the central bank\\'s gold reserves were 72.58 million ounces, an increase of 390,000 ounces from the previous month. This was the 16th consecutive month that the central bank has increased its gold reserves. The strong gold price has continued to increase the demand for physical gold jewelry. Looking forward, with the official implementation of the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate cut in 2024H2, gold prices are still expected to reach new highs. The US dollar has fallen back, and the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in June is still nearly 70%. U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increased by 275,000 in February, higher than expected. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February, ending a three-month low of 3.7%. The current potential risks in the United States mainly originate from commercial banks. Looking back at the Silicon Valley Bank SVB storm in March 2023, the Federal Reserve launched a BTFP liquidity management tool of US$165 billion that will expire on March 11, pointing to the need for small and medium-sized banks to passively increase deposit interest rates. The deposit absorption also caused commercial banks to lose nearly 50bp of potential arbitrage space in \"BTFP - reserve balance IORB\". The current use of ONRRP by the Federal Reserve is less than US$500 billion, which has fallen sharply from the high level of US$2.5 trillion in 2022. Pointing to certain pressure on US market liquidity. According to CMEFedWatch, the market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time in June and July is 73.4% and 91.5% respectively. Expectations for the Bank of Japan\\'s YCC exit have increased, and the yen has appreciated slightly. The yen appreciated slightly by more than 2% this week, with the U.S. dollar closing at 147 against the yen. On March 7, according to data from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Japan\\'s nominal cash income increased by 2% year-on-year in January, which was higher than the previous value of 0.8% and the market expectation of 1.2 %. Actual wages after excluding the impact of prices fell by 0.6%, a smaller than expected decline and the lowest decline in a year. On March 7, the interest rate on 10Y Japanese bonds rose 2bp to 0.74%. We will still pay attention to the result of Chun Dou in the future. Whether prices and wages continue their positive cycle will become an important reference for the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision on March 19. Risk warning: U.S. inflation fell slower than expected, the overseas banking crisis spread, and international geopolitical friction exceeded expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('a9604d37-5f24-5dfa-bf7b-5eb2ccd2f29c'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9427320100367069, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'QJCQH94B1NU8H6R2Q3LEPK6MFBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:21 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'QJCQH94B1NU8H6R2Q3LEPK6MFBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9ea0e84f-16ec-5b69-8941-790dd66d2164'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: Domestic two sessions provide positive signals for stabilizing growth, and overseas expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased again.', 'author': 'Xia Haojie, Zhang Junfeng', 'orgName': '国信期货有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80095998', 'orgSName': '国信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BJyVt5TIEUysexbQwQiur0w=', 'researcher': '夏豪杰,张俊峰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000178175', '11000444234'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BJyVt5TIEUysexbQwQiur0w=', 'site': 'Guosen Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212976_1.pdf?1710157172000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212976_1.pdf?1710157172000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: Domestic two sessions provide positive signals for stabilizing growth, and overseas expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased again.', 'originalAuthor': '夏豪杰,张俊峰', 'originalContent': '1.1周度回顾（0304-0310）周二，3月5日。十四届全国人大二次会议开幕，国务院总理李强代表国务院，向十四届全国人大二次会议作政府工作报告。根据2024年政府工作报告，今年发展主要预期目标是国内生产总值增长5%左右；城镇新增就业1200万人以上，城镇调查失业率5.5%左右；居民消费价格涨幅3%左右。积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效，赤字率拟按3%安排，赤字规模4.06万亿元，一般公共预算支出规模28.5万亿元。拟安排地方政府专项债券3.9万亿元。稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效。保持流动性合理充裕，社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配。周四，3月7日。根据海关总署数据，按美元计，2024年1-2月全国商品贸易出口总值为5280.1亿美元，较去年同期增长7.1%；进口总值为4028.5亿美元，较去年同期增长3.5%。', 'content': \"1.1 Weekly Review (0304-0310) Tuesday, March 5th. The Second Session of the 14th National People's Congress opened. Premier Li Qiang, on behalf of the State Council, delivered a government work report to the Second Session of the 14th National People's Congress. According to the 2024 Government Work Report, the main expected development goals this year are GDP growth of about 5%; more than 12 million new urban jobs; urban surveyed unemployment rate of about 5.5%; and consumer price increase of about 3%. The proactive fiscal policy must be appropriately intensified and improve quality and efficiency. The deficit rate is planned to be set at 3%, with a deficit scale of 4.06 trillion yuan and a general public budget expenditure scale of 28.5 trillion yuan. It is planned to arrange 3.9 trillion yuan in local government special bonds. A prudent monetary policy must be flexible, appropriate, precise and effective. Maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and ensure that the scale of social financing and money supply match the expected goals of economic growth and price levels. Thursday, March 7th. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in U.S. dollars, the total value of national merchandise trade exports from January to February 2024 was US$528.01 billion, an increase of 7.1% over the same period last year; the total import value was US$402.85 billion, an increase of 3.5% over the same period last year.\", 'authorid': UUID('01badbb2-8ea2-5c81-9a71-801c82db5e24'), 'sentimentScore': 0.7334329318255186, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '1O7M7CAOAEARR6N14P288E65FJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:24 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '1O7M7CAOAEARR6N14P288E65FJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5aee070a-3778-5b8b-b7aa-ec558a0358d3'), 'title': 'China Macroeconomic Monthly Report', 'author': 'Yan Yijin', 'orgName': '致富证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80102269', 'orgSName': '致富证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BII7MS3zVXc68toASnxlyr0=', 'researcher': '阎奕锦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000254034'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BII7MS3zVXc68toASnxlyr0=', 'site': 'CHIEF SECURITIES LIMITED', 'originalSite': '致富证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212773_1.pdf?1710169031000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212773_1.pdf?1710169031000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'China Macroeconomic Monthly Report', 'originalAuthor': '阎奕锦', 'originalContent': '事件：2月，CPI同比上涨0.7%（前值为-0.8%），环比上涨1.0%；PPI同比下降2.7%（前值为-2.5%），环比下降0.2%。主要观点：春节期间消费需求增加、部分地区雨雪天气影响供给和交通运输春节错月等因素的共同作用之下，食品价格和服务价格环比均显著上涨，带动CPI环比涨幅扩大，同比由降转涨。2月，CPI同比上涨0.7%（前值为-0.8%），环比上涨1.0%。核心CPI同比上涨1.2%（前值为0.4%），环比上涨0.5%（往年同期均值为0.15%）。食品价格同比下降0.9%（前值为-5.9%），环比上涨3.3%（往年同期均值为2.4%），涨幅高于往年同期平均水平。春节期间消费需求增加和雨雪天气影响供给，鲜菜、猪肉、水产品和鲜果价格涨幅较大。具体而言，鲜菜价格环比上涨12.7%，同比上涨2.9%；鲜果价格环比上涨4.3%，同比下降4.1%；水产品价格环比上涨6.2%，同比上涨4.1%；畜肉类价格环比上涨3.4%，同比下降2.9%（其中，猪肉价格环比上涨7.2%，同比上涨0.2%）；蛋类价格环比下降2.2%，同比下降5.1%。非食品价格同比上涨1.1%（前值为0.4%），环比上涨0.5%（往年同期均值为0.2%），涨幅大于往年同期平均水平。涨幅较高的原因主要为春节期间出行和文娱消费需求显著增加，飞机票、交通工具租赁费、旅游、电影及演出票价均录得两位数增速的涨幅，带动教育文化娱乐、交通通信价格环比涨幅较大。非食品七个中类价格环比“三升一平三降”。其中，教育文化娱乐、交通和通信、医疗保健价格环比分别上涨1.7%、0.1%、1.6%和0.4%；居住价格环比持平；生活用品及服务、衣着价格环比分别下降0.5%和0.2%；其他用品及服务价格下降0.2%。', 'content': 'Event: In February, CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year (previous value was -0.8%) and 1.0% month-on-month; PPI decreased by 2.7% year-on-year (previous value was -2.5%) and decreased by 0.2% month-on-month. Main point: Due to the combined effects of factors such as increased consumer demand during the Spring Festival, rain and snow weather in some areas affecting supply, and transportation during the Spring Festival, both food prices and service prices increased significantly month-on-month, driving the month-on-month increase in CPI to expand from a year-on-year decrease to Turn up. In February, CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year (previous value was -0.8%) and 1.0% month-on-month. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year (previous value was 0.4%) and month-on-month by 0.5% (the average for the same period in previous years was 0.15%). Food prices fell by 0.9% year-on-year (the previous value was -5.9%) and increased by 3.3% month-on-month (the average for the same period in previous years was 2.4%), which was higher than the average for the same period in previous years. During the Spring Festival, consumer demand increased and rain and snow weather affected supply. The prices of fresh vegetables, pork, aquatic products and fresh fruits increased significantly. Specifically, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 12.7% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year; the price of fresh fruits increased by 4.3% month-on-month and decreased 4.1% year-on-year; the price of aquatic products increased by 6.2% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year; the price of livestock and meat increased by 3.4% month-on-month. A year-on-year decrease of 2.9% (of which pork prices increased by 7.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year); egg prices decreased by 2.2% month-on-month and 5.1% year-on-year. Non-food prices increased by 1.1% year-on-year (the previous value was 0.4%) and 0.5% month-on-month (the average for the same period in previous years was 0.2%), which was greater than the average for the same period in previous years. The reason for the higher increase is mainly due to the significant increase in travel and entertainment consumption demand during the Spring Festival. Air tickets, transportation rental fees, travel, movie and performance ticket prices all recorded double-digit growth rates, driving education, culture, entertainment, transportation Communication prices increased significantly month-on-month. The prices of seven non-food categories increased by three, stayed flat, and fell three times month-on-month. Among them, the prices of education, culture and entertainment, transportation and communications, and medical care increased by 1.7%, 0.1%, 1.6%, and 0.4% respectively month-on-month; the prices of housing remained unchanged month-on-month; the prices of daily necessities and services, and clothing decreased by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively month-on-month; others Prices of supplies and services fell by 0.2%.', 'authorid': UUID('54d1db30-6891-593c-8df0-38025cdcc2be'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7399428933858871, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'AOH2NJ1SCFLOPL9IMCHSNIVUNRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:27 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'AOH2NJ1SCFLOPL9IMCHSNIVUNRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f4820416-8b49-5c0b-91f3-b0aac02cf5fd'), 'title': 'Comments on the 2024 Government Work Report: Accelerate the development of new productive forces and continue to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds', 'author': 'Yan Yijin', 'orgName': '致富证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80102269', 'orgSName': '致富证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BADx0WQGEs8Di1Nv/yB1FFA=', 'researcher': '阎奕锦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000254034'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BADx0WQGEs8Di1Nv/yB1FFA=', 'site': 'CHIEF SECURITIES LIMITED', 'originalSite': '致富证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212771_1.pdf?1710170914000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212771_1.pdf?1710170914000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on the 2024 Government Work Report: Accelerate the development of new productive forces and continue to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds', 'originalAuthor': '阎奕锦', 'originalContent': '事项：2024年3月5日，第十四届全国人民代表大会第二次会议在北京召开，李强总理作《政府工作报告》，对2023年我国经济社会发展取得的重大成就和主要工作进行回顾，明确今年经济社会发展主要目标和宏观政策取向，并对重点工作进行部署。2024年3月6日，财政部网站上发布了《关于2023年中央和地方预算执行情况与2024年中央和地方预算草案的报告（摘要）》。主要观点：经济：今年的经济形势定位和目标制定均偏正向——今年我国发展面临的环境仍是战略机遇和风险挑战并存，有利条件强于不利因素。政府工作报告对当前发展面临的困难和挑战描述为“世界经济增长动能不足，地区热点问题频发，外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升。我国经济持续回升向好的基础还不稳固，有效需求不足，部分行业产能过剩，社会预期偏弱，风险隐患仍然较多，国内大循环存在堵点，国际循环存在干扰。部分中小企业经营困难。就业总量压力和结构性矛盾并存，公共服务仍有不少短板。一些地方基层财力比较紧张。科技创新能力还不强。重点领域改革仍有不少硬骨头要啃。生态环境保护治理任重道远。安全生产的薄弱环节不容忽视。政府工作存在不足，形式主义、官僚主义现象仍较突出，一些改革发展举措落实不到位。有的干部缺乏担当实干精神，消极避责、做表面文章。一些领域腐败问题仍然多发。”我国的有利条件为“我国具有显著的制度优势、超大规模市场的需求优势、产业体系完备的供给优势、高素质劳动者众多的人才优势，科技创新能力在持续提升，新产业、新模式、新动能在加快壮大，发展内生动力在不断积聚，经济回升向好、长期向好的基本趋势没有改变也不会改变”。总体定性为“有利条件强于不利因素”。经济增速目标设置在5%左右，与上年相同，但实现难度较上年提升。将今年的GDP增速目标值设置在5%左右，为较高基数上的中高速增长，主要是出于稳就业保民生防风险的考虑：1、一方面，今年高校毕业生将超过1170万人，再创历史新高，再加上农民工、转业军人等群体的新增就业需求，今年就业压力依然较大，因此政府报告提出今年城镇新增就业1200万人以上，目标高于上年的1200万人左右；2、经济增长与就业存在关联带动效应，我国当前经济增长1个百分点可带动200多万人就业。以上年为例，GDP增长5.2%，城镇新增就业1244万人。从二者的关系看，今年1200万以上的新增就业目标需要5.0%以上的经济增速。3、设置该增速目标值也是为了与“十四五”规划和基本实现现代化的目标要求相衔接。但今年5%的增速目标要在上年5.2%的基础上实现，在当前的国际国内经济金融形势下难度高于上年。CPI涨幅目标值设置在3%左右，与上年相同。经过测算，我们认为今年CPI走势呈现“前低后高，逐渐回升”的走势，全年通胀压力不大，设置3%的CPI目标，主要是维持之前的目标值的连续性。财政政策：积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效。今年开始连续发行超长期特别国债。赤字率为3.0%，与上年持平。今年赤字金额4.06万亿元，较上年预算增加1,800亿元。财政收入增长、特定国有金融机构和专营机构依法上缴近年结存利润、调入预算稳定基金等因素使可用财力增加，全国一般公共预算支出28.5万亿元，较上年高1.1万亿元。从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。超长期意味着为30年期或50年期，特别国债意味着不计入赤字率，体现出财政政策作用于当前的同时，也兼顾长远发展。安排地方政府专项债3.9万亿元，比上年增加1000亿元。受土地出让收入下降对地方政府基金收入的持续性影响，今年政府性基金预算收入依然较低，较上年仅增长0.1%至7.08万亿元。但预算支出增速较快，增长18.6%至12.0万亿元，二者之间的差额靠上年结转收入391.87亿元、超长期特别国债收入10000亿元、地方政府专项债务收入39000亿元三项补充。货币政策：稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效。保持流动性合理充裕，社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增速和价格水平预期目标相匹配。加强总量和结构双重调节，盘活存量、提升效能，加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度。促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降。畅通货币政策传导机制，避免资金沉淀空转。加快发展新质生产力居于政府工作报告2024年十大工作任务的首位，也是今年两会的热词。新质生产力是创新起主导作用，摆脱传统经济增长方式、生产力发展路径，具有高科技、高效能、高质量特征，符合新发展理念的先进生产力质态。它由技术革命性突破、生产要素创新性配置、产业深度转型升级而催生。以劳动者、劳动资料、劳动对象及其优化组合的跃升为基本内涵。以全要素生产率大幅提升为核心标志。它的特点是创新，关键在质优，本质是先进生产力。把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来，更好统筹消费和投资，增强对经济增长的拉动力。积极扩大有效投资，投资重心向科技民生设备更新转移，传统基建投资分量淡化：重点支持科技创新、新型基础设施、节能减排降碳，加强民生等经济社会薄弱领域补短板，推进防洪排涝抗灾基础设施建设，推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造，加快实施“十四五”规划重大工程项目。促进消费稳定增长，政策标本兼顾。“标”的方面，推动新型消费、传统消费、服务消费等各类消费。“本”的方面，从增加收入、优化供给、减少限制性措施等方面综合施策，激发消费潜能。对于消费而言，要注意三点：一、鼓励和推动消费品以旧换新等治“标”政策只是通过补贴等政策把部分靠后的置换需求前置，集中置换期过后置换需求会快速将至正常水平之下，对总体需求拉动较为有限。二、消费结构正处于从传统商品消费向新型消费和服务消费转变的阶段，新型消费和服务消费需求和实际消费金额均呈增加走势，政策要随势而动，做好助力。但与此同时，居民讲究性价比、消费降级等倾向也越发凸显；以春节假期出游消费为例，出行人次创新高，显著高于疫情前的2019年，但人均消费金额增速却为负值。三、增加收入、优化供给等治“本”政策对消费的拉动效果更为显著，但这些政策产生作用所需时间较长。房地产：强调处置风险隐患和建立风险防控长效机制。优化房地产政策，对不同所有制房地产企业合理融资需求要一视同仁给予支持，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。适应新型城镇化发展趋势和房地产市场供求关系变化，加快构建房地产发展新模式。加大保障性住房建设和供给，完善商品房相关基础性制度，满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求。坚持房住不炒定位，完善“市场+保障”住房供应体系。市场满足多层次多样化住房需求，政府保障基本住房需求。政府继续做好规划建设保障性住房，推进“平急两用”公共基础设施和城中村改造三大项目，今年再改造5万个老旧小区。其他：对科教兴国、深化改革、对外开放、乡村振兴、城乡融合和区域协调发展、生态文明建设、民生等诸领域均进行了部署。', 'content': '事项：2024年3月5日，第十四届全国人民代表大会第二次会议在北京召开，李强总理作《政府工作报告》，对2023年我国经济社会发展取得的重大成就和主要工作进行回顾，明确今年经济社会发展主要目标和宏观政策取向，并对重点工作进行部署。2024年3月6日，财政部网站上发布了《关于2023年中央和地方预算执行情况与2024年中央和地方预算草案的报告（摘要）》。主要观点：经济：今年的经济形势定位和目标制定均偏正向——今年我国发展面临的环境仍是战略机遇和风险挑战并存，有利条件强于不利因素。政府工作报告对当前发展面临的困难和挑战描述为“世界经济增长动能不足，地区热点问题频发，外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升。我国经济持续回升向好的基础还不稳固，有效需求不足，部分行业产能过剩，社会预期偏弱，风险隐患仍然较多，国内大循环存在堵点，国际循环存在干扰。部分中小企业经营困难。就业总量压力和结构性矛盾并存，公共服务仍有不少短板。一些地方基层财力比较紧张。科技创新能力还不强。重点领域改革仍有不少硬骨头要啃。生态环境保护治理任重道远。安全生产的薄弱环节不容忽视。政府工作存在不足，形式主义、官僚主义现象仍较突出，一些改革发展举措落实不到位。有的干部缺乏担当实干精神，消极避责、做表面文章。一些领域腐败问题仍然多发。”我国的有利条件为“我国具有显著的制度优势、超���规模市场的需求优势、产业体系完备的供给优势、高素质劳动者众多的人才优势，科技创新能力在持续提升，新产业、新模式、新动能在加快壮大，发展内生动力在不断积聚，经济回升向好、长期向好的基本趋势没有改变也不会改变”。总体定性为“有利条件强于不利因素”。经济增速目标设置在5%左右，与上年相同，但实现难度较上年提升。将今年的GDP增速目标值设置在5%左右，为较高基数上的中高速增长，主要是出于稳就业保民生防风险的考虑：1、一方面，今年高校毕业生将超过1170万人，再创历史新高，再加上农民工、转业军人等群体的新增就业需求，今年就业压力依然较大，因此政府报告提出今年城镇新增就业1200万人以上，目标高于上年的1200万人左右；2、经济增长与就业存在关联带动效应，我国当前经济增长1个百分点可带动200多万人就业。以上年为例，GDP增长5.2%，城镇新增就业1244万人。从二者的关系看，今年1200万以上的新增就业目标需要5.0%以上的经济增速。3、设置该增速目标值也是为了与“十四五”规划和基本实现现代化的目标要求相衔接。但今年5%的增速目标要在上年5.2%的基础上实现，在当前的国际国内经济金融形势下难度高于上年。CPI涨幅目标值设置在3%左右，与上年相同。经过测算，我们认为今年CPI走势呈现“前低后高，逐渐回升”的走势，全年通胀压力不大，设置3%的CPI目标，主要是维持之前的目标值的连续性。财政政策：积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效。今年开始连续发行超长期特别国债。赤字率为3.0%，与上年持平。今年赤字金额4.06万亿元，较上年预算增加1,800亿元。财政收入增长、特定国有金融机构和专营机构依法上缴近年结存利润、调入预算稳定基金等因素使可用财力增加，全国一般公共预算支出28.5万亿元，较上年高1.1万亿元。从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。超长期意味着为30年期或50年期，特别国债意味着不计入赤字率，体现出财政政策作用于当前的同时，也兼顾长远发展。安排地方政府专项债3.9万亿元，比上年增加1000亿元。受土地出让收入下降对地方政府基金收入的持续性影响，今年政府性基金预算收入依然较低，较上年仅增长0.1%至7.08万亿元。但预算支出增速较快，增长18.6%至12.0万亿元，二者之间的差额靠上年结转收入391.87亿元、超长期特别国债收入10000亿元、地方政府专项债务收入39000亿元三项补充。货币政策：稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效。保持流动性合理充裕，社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增速和价格水平预期目标相匹配。加强总量和结构双重调节，盘活存量、提升效能，加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度。促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降。畅通货币政策传导机制，避免资金沉淀空转。加快发展新质生产力居于政府工作报告2024年十大工作任务的首位，也是今年两会的热词。新质生产力是创新起主导作用，摆脱传统经济增长方式、生产力发展路径，具有高科技、高效能、高质量特征，符合新发展理念的先进生产力质态。它由技术革命性突破、生产要素创新性配置、产业深度转型升级而催生。以劳动者、劳动资料、劳动对象及其优化组合的跃升为基本内涵。以全要素生产率大幅提升为核心标志。它的特点是创新，关键在质优，本质是先进生产力。把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来，更好统筹消费和投资，增强对经济增长的拉动力。积极扩大有效投资，投资重心向科技民生设备更新转移，传统基建投资分量淡化：重点支持科技创新、新型基础设施、节能减排降碳，加强民生等经济社会薄弱领域补短板，推进防洪排涝抗灾基础设施建设，推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造，加快实施“十四五”规划重大工程项目。促进消费稳定增长，政策标本兼顾。“标”的方面，推动新型消费、传统消费、服务消费等各类消费。“本”的方面，从增加收入、优化供给、减少限制性措施等方面综合施策，激发消费潜能。对于消费而言，要注意三点：一、鼓励和推动消费品以旧换新等治“标”政策只是通过补贴等政策把部分靠后的置换需求前置，集中置换期过后置换需求会快速将至正常水平之下，对总体需求拉动较为有限。二、消费结构正处于从传统商品消费向新型消费和服务消费转变的阶段，新型消费和服务消费需求和实际��费金额均呈增加走势，政策要随势而动，做好助力。但与此同时，居民讲究性价比、消费降级等倾向也越发凸显；以春节假期出游消费为例，出行人次创新高，显著高于疫情前的2019年，但人均消费金额增速却为负值。三、增加收入、优化供给等治“本”政策对消费的拉动效果更为显著，但这些政策产生作用所需时间较长。房地产：强调处置风险隐患和建立风险防控长效机制。优化房地产政策，对不同所有制房地产企业合理融资需求要一视同仁给予支持，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。适应新型城镇化发展趋势和房地产市场供求关系变化，加快构建房地产发展新模式。加大保障性住房建设和供给，完善商品房相关基础性制度，满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求。坚持房住不炒定位，完善“市场+保障”住房供应体系。市场满足多层次多样化住房需求，政府保障基本住房需求。政府继续做好规划建设保障性住房，推进“平急两用”公共基础设施和城中村改造三大项目，今年再改造5万个老旧小区。其他：对科教兴国、深化改革、对外开放、乡村振兴、城乡融合和区域协调发展、生态文明建设、民生等诸领域均进行了部署。', 'authorid': UUID('54d1db30-6891-593c-8df0-38025cdcc2be'), 'sentimentScore': 0.08706098049879074, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'A9T0TE82Q3KFJ5REO29T093ICRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:31 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'A9T0TE82Q3KFJ5REO29T093ICRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d68e2a65-527e-5eda-88c9-5df752a1c8ec'), 'title': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm payrolls data in February: Unemployment rate rises but new non-farm payrolls remain high', 'author': 'Fan Lei, Wang Boqun', 'orgName': '国联证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000028', 'orgSName': '国联证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BJvvMEiKW5DpiqhNfNAVW7E=', 'researcher': '樊磊,王博群', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000175009', '11000457032'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BJvvMEiKW5DpiqhNfNAVW7E=', 'site': 'Guolian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212757_1.pdf?1710154445000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212757_1.pdf?1710154445000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm payrolls data in February: Unemployment rate rises but new non-farm payrolls remain high', 'originalAuthor': '樊磊,王博群', 'originalContent': '事件：失业率上升到3.9%，显示就业市场走弱；但同时新增非农27.5万人，高于多数分析师的预期。但从时薪的环比超预期下降可能意味着整体而言就业市场略弱于市场预期。股票、债券市场对此都有反映，但是程度非常温和。美联储2024年3月会议降息的概率不到5%，期货市场预期的6月降息概率略超过70%。但我们认为单月数据的意义有限，一些通胀的因素尚难说完全缓解，6月是否能降息还存在较大不确定性。矛盾的两个调查，真实状况或在中间失业率上升到3.9%，显示就业市场走弱，但同时新增非农27.5万人，高于多数分析师的预期。来自于家庭调查的失业率数据和来自于雇主调查的新增非农数据略有矛盾。考虑到新增非农最近1年经常下修，我们认为就业市场的真实状态或没有新增非农显示的那么强，但可能也不如失业率上升显示的那么弱，可能真实的状态在中间。根据Sahm法则失业率上升让衰退的可能增大了一些。工资通胀的压力缓解就业数据中最大的好消息是时薪环比增速大幅下降到0.14%，同比下降到4.3%，这对于缓解美联储的通胀担忧来讲是有利的。同时时薪的走弱和就业市场整体走弱的大趋势也是吻合的。分行业看共8个行业时薪跑赢通胀，在13个行业中超过半数。2月每周工作时间34.3小时，较1月34.2小时上升。非农就业新增又超预期，仅2个行业负增长2月新增非农又超预期，高于多数分析师预测，12月数据二次修正后仍然上修，但1月份数据显著下修。雇主调查和家庭调查的差异较大，从历史的数据上看，只有约7%的月份雇主调查和家庭调查的新增非农差异比2月的差异更大。目前来看，同比新增就业这个角度衡量的劳动力市场的热度仍然略高于疫情前的水平。如果对比2019年的情况，同比增长1.8%的非农就业并不弱，2019年2月的同比只有1.4%。风险提示：美联储鹰派超预期，通货膨胀超预期。', 'content': \"Event: The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, indicating a weakening job market; but at the same time, 275,000 new non-agricultural jobs were added, which was higher than most analysts' expectations. However, a larger-than-expected decline in hourly wages may mean that the overall job market is slightly weaker than market expectations. The stock and bond markets have reflected this, but to a very mild extent. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its March 2024 meeting is less than 5%, and the futures market expects a slightly over 70% probability of a rate cut in June. However, we believe that the significance of single-month data is limited. It is difficult to say that some inflationary factors have been completely alleviated. There is still great uncertainty about whether interest rates can be cut in June. The two contradictory surveys suggest that the real unemployment rate may have risen to 3.9%, showing a weakening job market, but at the same time, 275,000 new non-agricultural workers were added, higher than most analysts expected. The unemployment rate data from the household survey and the new non-farm payroll data from the employer survey are slightly contradictory. Considering that the new non-farm payrolls have been frequently revised downwards in the past year, we believe that the true state of the job market may not be as strong as the new non-farm payrolls indicate, but it may not be as weak as the rising unemployment rate indicates. The real state may be in the middle. According to Sahm's law, rising unemployment makes a recession more likely. Pressure on wage inflation eased The biggest good news in the employment data is that hourly wage growth dropped sharply to 0.14% month-on-month and 4.3% year-on-year, which is beneficial to alleviating the Federal Reserve's inflation concerns. At the same time, the weakening of hourly wages is consistent with the general trend of the overall weakening of the job market. Broken down by industry, hourly wages in eight industries outperformed inflation, accounting for more than half of the 13 industries. Weekly working hours in February were 34.3 hours, up from 34.2 hours in January. The increase in non-agricultural employment exceeded expectations again. Only two industries had negative growth. New non-agricultural employment in February exceeded expectations and was higher than most analysts' predictions. The December data was still revised upward after the second revision, but the January data was significantly revised down. The difference between the employer survey and the household survey is relatively large. From a historical perspective, only about 7% of the months have a greater difference in new non-farm payrolls than the difference in February. At present, the labor market's enthusiasm, measured from the perspective of year-on-year new employment, is still slightly higher than the pre-epidemic level. If compared with the situation in 2019, the non-agricultural employment growth of 1.8% year-on-year is not weak. The year-on-year growth in February 2019 was only 1.4%. Risk warning: The Fed is more hawkish than expected, and inflation exceeds expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('4786395a-b6a8-5613-93cb-532d55daeddb'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9410577286034822, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'DBG3BP13QLHNOGPRNG8SI8I0HVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:34 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'DBG3BP13QLHNOGPRNG8SI8I0HVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2d05ac4d-dbd5-56ca-8eab-8e36882be17b'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: Ministries and commissions intensively release positive signals, overseas geopolitics causes fluctuations', 'author': 'Ye Fan, Wang Runmeng, Liu Yanhong', 'orgName': '西南证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000296', 'orgSName': '西南证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BI3EBGMMKdTGeOf8ej25hwE=', 'researcher': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000263735', '11000418732', '11000440469'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BI3EBGMMKdTGeOf8ej25hwE=', 'site': 'Southwest Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '西南证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212514_1.pdf?1710154224000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212514_1.pdf?1710154224000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: Ministries and commissions intensively release positive signals, overseas geopolitics causes fluctuations', 'originalAuthor': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'originalContent': '摘要一周大事记国内：经济主题记者会释放重大信号，外汇储备小幅升高。3月5日，2月财新服务业PMI录得52.5%，较1月回落0.2个百分点，显示服务业仍维持扩张但势头放缓，财新制造业和服务业PMI的走势与官方制造业和服务业PMI走势再度背离；6日，十四届全国人大二次会议经济主题记者会召开，发改委、财政部、商务部、央行和证监会领导发言，就经济发展、财政货币、消费和资本市场等方面表态，释放利好信号；5日，国家发改委发布《2024年国民经济和社会发展计划的主要任务》提出，加强重大经济金融风险防控，牢牢守住不发生系统性风险的底线，以科技创新引领现代化产业体系建设，加快形成新质生产力；7日，国家外管局数据显示，2月外汇储备小幅升高，央行连续第16个月增持黄金，地缘政治风险不断，全球央行购金潮在今年可能仍将有所延续，支撑黄金中长期中枢价格；7日，财政部公开了《2023年中国财政政策执行情况报告》，认为去年财政政策有力促进我国经济运行向好和高质量发展，并展望2024年财政政策。海外：红海局势再度升温，超级星期二结果出炉。当地时间3月3日，OPEC+成员国达成协议，同意延期额外自愿减产的协议至二季度，支持石油市场的稳定与平衡，预计短期国际油价在供需两端因素共同作用下，呈震荡偏强走势；当地时间4日，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，预计美联储将在今年第三季度首次降息，6日和7日，鲍威尔在国会两院听证会老调重弹，基于目前美国经济数据变化，我们仍维持美联储将在年中左右开始降息；5日数据显示，2月日本东京CPI同比上涨2.6%，高于市场预期，体现国内通胀目前仍具有持续性，日本是否摆脱通缩困境还需要进一步确认工资和物价之间的良性循环，后续建议关注3月份日本春季劳资谈判的结果以及服务价格变化等；5日，美国“超级星期二”，15个州和一个海外领地美属萨摩亚将同时举行初选，拜登和特朗普赢得大部分州的初选；5日，欧盟1月PPI同比下降8.6%，降幅大于预期，能源价格是导致PPI继续下滑的主因，欧洲经济偏疲弱，叠加通胀放缓，预计欧央行或在上半年进行降息。高频数据：上游：本周布伦特原油现货均价、铁矿石价格、阴极铜价周环比升1.2%、落0.9%、升0.34%；中游：螺纹钢价格周环比下降2.06%，水泥价格指数周环比下降0.04%，秦皇岛港动力煤平仓价周环比落0.63%；下游：商品房成交面积周环比回落32.72%，2月第五周全国乘用车市场日均零售5.8万辆；物价：蔬菜价格周环比回落3.13%，猪肉价格回落1.36%。下周重点关注：中国2月M2年率、新增人民币贷款（周一），美国2月CPI年率（周二）；EIA公布月度短期能源展望报告（周三）；美国2月PPI年率、零售销售月率（周四）；美国2月工业产出月率、进口物价指数、3月密歇根大学消费者信心指数（周五）。风险提示：国内经济复苏不及预期，海外经济超预期下行。', 'content': 'Summary of major domestic events of the week: The economic-themed press conference released major signals, and foreign exchange reserves increased slightly. On March 5, the Caixin Service Industry PMI in February recorded 52.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from January, showing that the service industry still maintained expansion but the momentum was slowing down. The trends of Caixin Manufacturing and Service Industry PMI were in line with the official manufacturing industry and the service industry PMI trend deviated again; on the 6th, the economic theme press conference of the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress was held. Leaders of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the Central Bank and the China Securities Regulatory Commission spoke on economic development, fiscal currency, consumption and capital. The market and other aspects expressed their opinions and released positive signals; on the 5th, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the \"Main Tasks of the National Economic and Social Development Plan for 2024\" and proposed to strengthen the prevention and control of major economic and financial risks, firmly guard the bottom line of no systemic risks, and Technological innovation leads the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerates the formation of new productive forces; on the 7th, data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that foreign exchange reserves increased slightly in February, and the central bank increased its gold holdings for the 16th consecutive month. Geopolitical risks continue, and global central bank purchases The gold tide may continue this year, supporting the mid- and long-term central price of gold; on the 7th, the Ministry of Finance released the \"Report on the Implementation of my country\\'s Fiscal Policy in 2023\", believing that last year\\'s fiscal policy effectively promoted the good and high-quality performance of our country\\'s economy development, and looks ahead to fiscal policy in 2024. Overseas: The situation in the Red Sea heats up again, with Super Tuesday results coming out. On March 3, local time, OPEC+ member states reached an agreement to extend the agreement on additional voluntary production cuts until the second quarter to support the stability and balance of the oil market. It is expected that short-term international oil prices will show a volatile and strong trend under the combined influence of supply and demand factors. ; On the 4th local time, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in the third quarter of this year. On the 6th and 7th, Powell reiterated his old tune at hearings in both houses of Congress. Based on the current changes in U.S. economic data, We still maintain that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates around the middle of the year; data on the 5th showed that Japan’s Tokyo CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year in February, higher than market expectations, reflecting that domestic inflation is still persistent, and whether Japan will escape the deflation dilemma needs further confirmation. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices, follow-up suggestions are to pay attention to the results of Japan\\'s spring labor negotiations in March and service price changes; on the 5th, the United States \"Super Tuesday\", 15 states and one overseas territory, American Samoa, will hold preliminary meetings at the same time In the election, Biden and Trump won the primaries in most states; on the 5th, the European Union\\'s PPI fell by 8.6% year-on-year in January, a greater than expected decline. Energy prices were the main reason for the continued decline in PPI. The European economy was weak and inflation was rising. It is expected that the European Central Bank may cut interest rates in the first half of the year. High-frequency data: Upstream: This week’s average Brent crude oil spot price, iron ore price, and cathode copper price increased by 1.2% week-on-week, fell by 0.9%, and rose by 0.34%; midstream: rebar prices fell by 2.06% week-on-week, and cement prices The index fell by 0.04% week-on-week, and the thermal coal closing price at Qinhuangdao Port fell by 0.63% week-on-week; downstream: the commercial housing transaction area fell by 32.72% week-on-week, and the national passenger car market averaged 58,000 daily retail sales in the fifth week of February; prices: Vegetable prices fell by 3.13% week-on-week, and pork prices fell by 1.36%. Focus next week: China’s February M2 annual rate, new RMB loans (Monday), U.S. February CPI annual rate (Tuesday); EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook report (Wednesday); U.S. February PPI annual rate, retail sales monthly rate ( Thursday); US February industrial output monthly rate, import price index, March University of Michigan consumer confidence index (Friday). Risk warning: The domestic economic recovery is less than expected, and the overseas economy is declining more than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('d3389991-b216-5572-82e3-6396ad6aed04'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9536212496459484, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'L3JF21JNQ447OUI2JGD3L46BN7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:36 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'L3JF21JNQ447OUI2JGD3L46BN7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('85eedaa7-5e47-52a3-bde0-ab778e8544aa'), 'title': 'High-frequency observation of China’s economy (first week of March): Funds constrain the progress of construction resumption', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Chang Yixin', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BKNGJyQ2rPnq7PG/tsGGjUo=', 'researcher': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000387731'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BKNGJyQ2rPnq7PG/tsGGjUo=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212508_1.pdf?1710154022000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212508_1.pdf?1710154022000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'High-frequency observation of China’s economy (first week of March): Funds constrain the progress of construction resumption', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'originalContent': '平安观点：本周是春节假期结束后的第三周，货物流动、人员返程、建筑工地复工等进展仍然缓慢。工业原材料生产弱于季节性，但���下游汽车、纺织生产恢复较好。需求方面，新房销售环比回落近3成，外需环比继续恢复。建筑复工：同比偏慢。1）据百年建筑调研，截至3月5日（正月十八），全国工地开复工率农历同比减少13.6个百分点；劳务上工率农历同比下降10.7个百分点。续建项目进度偏缓，且新项目明显减少，资金问题未有明显改善。2）从主要建筑原料需求看，实物工作量形成速度约较去年农历同期低2成以上。其中，水泥出库量农历同比下降28.2%，基建水泥直供量农历同比下降17.3%。全国混凝土产能利用率为1.69%，同比降低1.38个百分点；混凝土发运量为33.85万方，同比减少45%。线下活动：货运物流恢复较慢，人员流动同比略有改善。1）近7日整车货运流量指数、公共物流园吞吐量指数、主要快递企业分拨中心吞吐量指数分别较1月均值低17.4%、低7.7%、低7.9%，同比增速均处负值区间。2）近7日，百度迁徙指数弱于去年同期，24城地铁客运量同比由负转正。工业生产：延续恢复势头。1）钢铁、沥青、水泥等建筑原材料生产环比回升，多数指标绝对水平低于去年同期。2）主要化工原料开工率分化，纯碱、甲醇、聚氯乙烯有所提升，而山东地炼、纯苯开工率回落。3）中下游生产表现较好，汽车轮胎开工率高位运行，纺织化纤产业链也有修复。地产：新房销售环比走弱，二手房销售环比恢复。1）近7日（截至3月8日），我们统计的61个样本城市新房日均成交面积环比下跌近3成，同比下跌45%，相比2019至2021年同期均值跌5成以上。分城市能级看，一线(-27%)>三线(-30%)>四五线(-31%)>二线(-55.5%)。2）近7日，15个样本城市二手房日均成交面积环比提升2成以上，同比增速约-29%，绝对水平高于2019-2021年同期均值。外需：本周出口集装箱运价回落，通往美西、欧洲、澳新等主要发达区域的航线运价均下跌；通往东南亚、东西非及南美等新兴市场及发展中区域的航线运价回升。上周港口吞吐量环比恢复，但低于去年同期。截至3月5日当周，交通运输部监测的港口累计完成集装箱吞吐量、货物吞吐量分别较去年同期回落2.4%、回落4.0%。物价：南华工业品指数回落，工业品现货价格大多下跌。焦煤、螺纹钢、铁矿石、玻璃、水泥等主要工业品现货价格大多回落。农产品价格环比回落，蔬菜价格明显下跌，水果价格下跌，而猪肉价格反弹。风险提示：稳增长政策不及预期，海外经济衰退程度超预期，地缘政治冲突升级等。', 'content': \"Ping An's perspective: This week is the third week after the Spring Festival holiday, and progress in the movement of goods, return of personnel, and resumption of work at construction sites is still slow. The production of industrial raw materials is weaker than seasonal, but the mid-stream and downstream automobile and textile production have recovered well. On the demand side, new home sales fell by nearly 30% month-on-month, and external demand continued to recover month-on-month. Construction resumption: slower year-on-year. 1) According to Centennial Construction Research, as of March 5 (the eighteenth day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of construction sites across the country has decreased by 13.6 percentage points year-on-year; the labor employment rate has decreased by 10.7 percentage points year-on-year. The progress of continued construction projects is slow, new projects have significantly decreased, and the funding problem has not been significantly improved. 2) Judging from the demand for major construction raw materials, the rate of physical workload formation is about 20% lower than that of the same period last year. Among them, the quantity of cement shipped out of warehouses fell by 28.2% year-on-year, and the direct supply of cement for infrastructure construction fell by 17.3% year-on-year. The national concrete production capacity utilization rate was 1.69%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.38 percentage points; the concrete shipment volume was 338,500 cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 45%. Offline activities: Freight logistics has recovered slowly, and the flow of people has improved slightly year-on-year. 1) In the past seven days, the vehicle freight flow index, public logistics park throughput index, and major express delivery company distribution center throughput index were 17.4%, 7.7%, and 7.9% lower than the January average respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were all negative. value interval. 2) In the past seven days, the Baidu migration index has been weaker than the same period last year, and the subway passenger volume in 24 cities turned from negative to positive year-on-year. Industrial production: The recovery momentum continues. 1) The production of construction raw materials such as steel, asphalt, cement, etc. has rebounded month-on-month, and the absolute levels of most indicators are lower than the same period last year. 2) The operating rates of major chemical raw materials are differentiated. Soda ash, methanol, and polyvinyl chloride have increased, while the operating rates of Shandong local refining and pure benzene have fallen. 3) Midstream and downstream production performed well, the operating rate of automobile tires was running at a high level, and the textile and chemical fiber industry chain was also repaired. Real Estate: New home sales weakened month-on-month, while second-hand home sales recovered month-on-month. 1) In the past 7 days (as of March 8), the average daily transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bnew homes in the 61 sample cities we counted has dropped by nearly 30% month-on-month and 45% year-on-year. Compared with the average value for the same period from 2019 to 2021, it has dropped by more than 50%. Looking at city levels, first-tier (-27%) > third-tier (-30%) > fourth- and fifth-tier (-31%) > second-tier (-55.5%). 2) In the past 7 days, the average daily transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bsecond-hand housing in 15 sample cities has increased by more than 20% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth rate of about -29%. The absolute level is higher than the average for the same period from 2019 to 2021. External demand: Export container freight rates fell this week, with freight rates on routes to major developed regions such as the Western United States, Europe, Australia and New Zealand falling; freight rates on routes to emerging markets and developing regions such as Southeast Asia, East and West Africa, and South America rebounded. . Port throughput recovered last week, but was lower than the same period last year. As of the week of March 5, the cumulative container throughput and cargo throughput of ports monitored by the Ministry of Transport fell by 2.4% and 4.0% respectively compared with the same period last year. Prices: The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell, and the spot prices of industrial products mostly fell. The spot prices of major industrial products such as coking coal, rebar, iron ore, glass, and cement have mostly fallen. The prices of agricultural products fell month-on-month, with vegetable prices falling significantly, fruit prices falling, and pork prices rebounding. Risk warning: Policies to stabilize growth fall short of expectations, overseas economic recession is worse than expected, geopolitical conflicts escalate, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('149306d1-3d93-5b17-941a-f5aa3a00dc04'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9532750444486737, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'MO5DLAI3RK2PEJLVH45VQRNC9NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:40 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'MO5DLAI3RK2PEJLVH45VQRNC9NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('cb801bb4-0752-5f13-8b96-6c4dae31933b'), 'title': 'Overseas Macro and Major Assets Monthly Report: The Rise of Early Spring', 'author': 'Zhu Qibing, Zhou Yaqi', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BDLxHwGQz9WBlzvjY5ar0u0=', 'researcher': '朱启兵,周亚齐', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000224223', '11000429332'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BDLxHwGQz9WBlzvjY5ar0u0=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212013_1.pdf?1710152314000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212013_1.pdf?1710152314000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas Macro and Major Assets Monthly Report: The Rise of Early Spring', 'originalAuthor': '朱启兵,周亚齐', 'originalContent': '美国经济呈现“较高增速+较高通胀”特征，全球经济向上动能有所增强，风险资产和美债收益率携手上行。海外宏观概览：2月数据显示美国经济存在持续处于“较高经济增速+较高通胀水平”的可能性。欧元区经济和企业盈利增长均较为乏力。日本经济进入技术性衰退，但企业盈利增速转正，薪资和通胀实现“良性循环”的可能性增大。全球制造业PMI和亚洲出口增速均出现持续改善，显示全球经济向上动能有所增强。市场分析：股指和美债收益率携手上行暗示市场交易主题线索或已经由通胀/美联储转变至经济基本面/企业盈利。中美经济周期有望共振上行并为风险资产持续回暖提供基本面支持。海外主要资产观点：美股:盈利增速虽有望继续上行，但市场计价或已经较为充分，短期美股指数进一步大幅走高空间或相对有限。港股:盈利水平有望保持相对稳定，���场对盈利回暖的计价并不充分，短期港股或“易上难下”。10年期美债：通胀进一步回落面临压力的背景下，10年期美债收益率短期或难以持续大幅下行。美元指数：美强欧弱或有助于维持美元强势地位，但日元或带来扰动，美元指数短期或仍将处于震荡局面铜油：中美经济周期共振上行或有助于铜油回升，短期来看，在催化剂缺失的情况下，铜油或仍将处于震荡之中。国际金价：受益于美债实际收益率回落，金价创出历史新高，短期或将在高位震荡。风险：经济实际运行情况偏离预期，预测模型失效以及黑天鹅事件。', 'content': 'The U.S. economy presents the characteristics of \"higher growth + higher inflation\", the upward momentum of the global economy has increased, and risk assets and U.S. bond yields have risen hand in hand. Overseas macro overview: February data shows that there is a possibility that the U.S. economy will continue to be at a \"higher economic growth rate + higher inflation level.\" The Eurozone economy and corporate earnings growth are relatively weak. Japan\\'s economy has entered a technical recession, but corporate profit growth has turned positive, making it more likely that wages and inflation will achieve a \"virtuous cycle.\" Global manufacturing PMI and Asian export growth have continued to improve, indicating that the upward momentum of the global economy has increased. Market analysis: The stock index and U.S. bond yields are rising together, suggesting that the market trading theme may have shifted from inflation/Fed to economic fundamentals/corporate earnings. The economic cycles of China and the United States are expected to resonate upward and provide fundamental support for the continued recovery of risk assets. Views on major overseas assets: U.S. stocks: Although profit growth is expected to continue to rise, market pricing may have been sufficient, and the room for further sharp rises in short-term U.S. stock indexes may be relatively limited. Hong Kong stocks: Profitability levels are expected to remain relatively stable. The market has not fully priced in the rebound in profits. In the short term, Hong Kong stocks may be \"easy to rise but difficult to sell\". 10-year U.S. Treasury bond: Against the backdrop of pressure from a further fall in inflation, the yield on the 10-year U.S. bond may be difficult to sustain a sharp decline in the short term. U.S. dollar index: The strength of the United States and the weakness of Europe may help maintain the strong position of the U.S. dollar, but the Japanese yen may cause disturbances, and the U.S. dollar index may still be in a volatile situation in the short term. Copper Oil: The resonance of the Sino-U.S. economic cycle may help copper and oil recover. In the short term, in the absence of catalysts, copper oil may still be in shock. International gold prices: Benefiting from the fall in the actual yield on U.S. bonds, gold prices have hit a record high and may fluctuate at high levels in the short term. Risks: actual economic performance deviates from expectations, prediction models fail, and black swan events occur.', 'authorid': UUID('7a207444-a717-5b0e-88ae-471f32b2e6b6'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8902648836374283, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'ATE9SD6O6D2KQ19RPQR4EJ3OSBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:42 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'ATE9SD6O6D2KQ19RPQR4EJ3OSBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5b6107b8-2962-5dbf-826c-c7d083ba5217'), 'title': 'Comments on February inflation data: The Spring Festival is in the wrong month, and the performance of CPI and PPI is divergent', 'author': 'Xu Chao, Wan Qi', 'orgName': '太平洋证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80050806', 'orgSName': '太平洋', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BCUaCyI5HYdfxQlyyhOf8F4=', 'researcher': '徐超,万琦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249881', '11000454339'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BCUaCyI5HYdfxQlyyhOf8F4=', 'site': 'Pacific Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '太平洋', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626211720_1.pdf?1710152211000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626211720_1.pdf?1710152211000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February inflation data: The Spring Festival is in the wrong month, and the performance of CPI and PPI is divergent', 'originalAuthor': '徐超,万琦', 'originalContent': '中国2月CPI同比增长0.7%，市场预期增长0.4%，前值下降0.8%。中国2月PPI同比下降2.7%，市场预期下降2.5%，前值下降2.5%。01春节错月,CPI同比回升超预期中国2���CPI同比增长0.7%，小幅超出市场预期，较前值回升1.5个百分点。同比反弹的主要原因在于“春节错月”，去年春节假期于1月末开启，今年则在2月，这对2月份的通胀数据带来两方面的影响：一则今年食品、服务类消费在假期的刺激效应下价格边际走高；二则去年同期的基数走弱，继而推升同比读数。1-2月平均来看的话，全国居民消费价格则与上年同期持平。以上两点影响从数据上也可得到验证：一是2月份CPI环比上涨1.0%，相比前值涨幅扩大0.7个百分点，其中食品与服务分项拉动明显。食品项影响CPI上涨约0.59个百分点，出行和文娱消费类合计影响约0.3个百分点；二是根据统计局的测算，在2月份0.7%的CPI同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-0.6个百分点（前值为-1.1个百分点），今年价格变动的新影响约为1.3个百分点（前值为0.3个百分点），翘尾与新涨价因素的边际变化分别对应着去年同期基数的走低以及今年价格本身的上行。', 'content': 'China\\'s CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year in February, market expectations increased by 0.4%, and the previous value fell by 0.8%. China\\'s PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year in February, market expectations fell by 2.5%, and the previous value fell by 2.5%. 01 The Spring Festival falls in the wrong month, and CPI rebounds more than expected. China\\'s CPI in February increased by 0.7% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations and rising 1.5 percentage points from the previous value. The main reason for the year-on-year rebound is the \"Spring Festival holiday\". Last year, the Spring Festival holiday started at the end of January, but this year it is in February. This has two impacts on February\\'s inflation data: First, food and service consumption during the holiday this year The price marginally rose under the stimulus effect; secondly, the base number in the same period last year weakened, which in turn pushed up the year-on-year reading. Looking at the average from January to February, the national consumer price was the same as the same period last year. The impact of the above two points can also be verified from the data: First, the CPI rose by 1.0% month-on-month in February, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous value, with food and services contributing significantly. The food item affects the CPI increase by about 0.59 percentage points, and the travel and entertainment consumption categories have a combined impact of about 0.3 percentage points. Second, according to the Bureau of Statistics’ calculations, in the 0.7% year-on-year change in CPI in February, the tail-lifting impact was about -0.6 percentage points. (The previous value was -1.1 percentage points), the new impact of this year’s price changes was approximately 1.3 percentage points (the previous value was 0.3 percentage points), and the marginal changes in tail-lifting and new price increase factors respectively correspond to the lower base number in the same period last year and this year’s The price itself goes up.', 'authorid': UUID('449742b5-b0f3-5c56-92a0-5cc455ba4318'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7166217565536499, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '81TPQKJ8BM2MRSH6A8436G39U7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '81TPQKJ8BM2MRSH6A8436G39U7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a473b817-a271-5c0b-a42a-bc662936605d'), 'title': 'Macro report: Why small non-agricultural (ADP) and non-agricultural (NFP) employment continue to diverge', 'author': 'Song Xuetao', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BHB5H3fIbBJmeAGwol8Q1mo=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BHB5H3fIbBJmeAGwol8Q1mo=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626211717_1.pdf?1710152416000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626211717_1.pdf?1710152416000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro report: Why small non-agricultural (ADP) and non-agricultural (NFP) employment continue to diverge', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛', 'originalContent': '小非农（ADP）与非农（NFP）同为衡量美国就业的关键指标，但是疫情以来，两者之间的走势背离程度愈发加剧。小非农（ADP）仅包含私人部门就业，而非农（NFP）既包含私人部门又包含政府部门就业。因此当私人部门和政府部门的就业趋势出现差异��或政府就业遇到季节性变化时，小非农（ADP）和非农（NFP）会产生背离。我们认为两者就业趋势的差异是近半年来小非农（ADP）和非农（NFP）差异愈发明显的重要原因。从构成结构上看，与小非农（ADP）更具有可比性的是非农（NFP）的私人部门新增就业。疫情以来，两者的差异也开始加大，且波动更明显。我们认为有两个原因导致了小非农（ADP）和非农（NFP）私人部门就业出现背离且越来越大，一是编纂方法的差异导致了数据差异甚至背离，二是疫后美国就业活动的新特点放大了数据的差异程度。小非农（ADP）对灵活就业、临时用工的反应更准确，而非农（NFP）私人就业更多反应的是稳定工作的就业数据。为什么疫后两个数据的差异越来越大呢？这和美国疫后就业活动的新特点有关。疫情以来，美国兼职（包括自愿与非自愿）就业数小幅持续增加，但全职就业数快速修复后有所停滞。随着兼职人数的增加，非农就业开始再加速。而这一部分兼职的人数此前可能已经被小非农（ADP）所涵盖，因此小非农（ADP）就业保持稳定，加剧了近半年来的背离。风险提示：小非农（ADP）与非农(NFP)统计质量下降；美国年轻人就业偏好出现较大不确定性。', 'content': 'Small non-farm payrolls (ADP) and non-farm payrolls (NFP) are both key indicators of U.S. employment, but since the epidemic, the trend divergence between the two has become increasingly intensified. Small nonfarm (ADP) includes only private sector employment, while nonfarm (NFP) includes both private and government sector employment. Therefore, when there are differences in employment trends between the private sector and the government sector, or when government employment encounters seasonal changes, small non-farm payrolls (ADP) and non-farm payrolls (NFP) will diverge. We believe that the difference in employment trends between the two is an important reason why the difference between small non-agriculture (ADP) and non-agriculture (NFP) has become increasingly obvious in the past six months. From a structural point of view, what is more comparable to small non-agriculture (ADP) is the new employment in the private sector of non-agriculture (NFP). Since the epidemic, the difference between the two has begun to increase, and the fluctuations have become more obvious. We believe that there are two reasons that have caused the divergence between small non-agricultural (ADP) and non-agricultural (NFP) private sector employment to become larger and larger. First, differences in compilation methods have led to data differences and even divergences. Second, US employment after the epidemic New features of the activity magnified the extent of the data differences. Small non-agricultural employment (ADP) responds more accurately to flexible employment and temporary employment, while non-agricultural (NFP) private employment more reflects employment data of stable jobs. Why is the difference between the two data increasing after the epidemic? This is related to the new characteristics of post-epidemic employment activities in the United States. Since the epidemic, the number of part-time (including voluntary and involuntary) employment in the United States has continued to increase slightly, but the number of full-time employment has stagnated after a rapid recovery. As the number of part-time workers increases, non-agricultural employment begins to accelerate again. This part of the number of part-time workers may have been covered by ADP before, so ADP employment has remained stable, exacerbating the deviation in the past six months. Risk warning: The statistical quality of small non-farm payrolls (ADP) and non-farm payrolls (NFP) has declined; there is greater uncertainty in the employment preferences of young people in the United States.', 'authorid': UUID('e546a080-7eae-5a16-8b31-ee315393fe93'), 'sentimentScore': -0.5347664654254913, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'UAE9E9E4S7TNCEVS2IVTONO9U7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:47 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'UAE9E9E4S7TNCEVS2IVTONO9U7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('fe761b34-9116-5eae-8063-c9bdd504d30b'), 'title': 'Macro-thematic analysis report: U.S. election, poll: \"Which country is stronger?\"', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Chen Dafei, Zhao Yu', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BBncPdHFgJSKfZYsp03uXN4=', 'researcher': '赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000385631', '11000436531'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BBncPdHFgJSKfZYsp03uXN4=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626211693_1.pdf?1710154738000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626211693_1.pdf?1710154738000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro-thematic analysis report: U.S. election, poll: \"Which country is stronger?\"', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇', 'originalContent': '“超级星期二”之后，2024年美国总统大选初选格局已定。拜登与特朗普再次“狭路相逢”，谁会赢得本次大选？基于对美国民调的准确性和政治倾向的分析，报告认为，当前民调结果或低估了特朗普的得票率3.5个百分点。热点思考：特朗普支持率可能被低估美国大选民调机构数目众多，多数为媒体、大学、智库。2024年评级排名靠前的民调机构有：纽约时报、ABC新闻、马凯特大学、YOUGOV等机构。大选民调依赖于抽样调查，单个民调质量受统计方法的影响，误差难以避免，且会受政治倾向的干扰，多数民调误差为正负1%-4%左右。平均而言，今年大选，特朗普及拜登的民调误差为正负2.6%。单个民调误差难以控制，集合民调更有优势，后者已是判断大选风向的主要依据。集合民调将大量民调机构的结果进行汇总、平均，得到全国民调的总体情况。主流的集合民调机构包括FiveThirtyEight(538)、RealClearPolitics(RCP)和270toWin等。2020年大选，RCP和FiveThirtyEight的误差均低于单个本地民调，RCP的误差更低。大选早期民调表现一般，准确性约为73%。使用集合民调数据分析发现，1936年至2020年的22场大选里，早期民调预测正确16场，失误主因是“新人效应”，即候选人首次参加竞选，初期知名度低，导致民调偏低。例如克林顿1992年首次参选，早期民调落后11个点。剔除“新人效应”后，早期民调准确率可达80%。最终民调准确性较高，达到91%。1936年至2020年，最终民调预测仅出现两次失误，正确次数达20次，两次失误均与摇摆州民调有关。第一次民调失误为1948年大选，杜鲁门民调落后但仍成功当选。一方面是因为此次大选民调提前结束，另一方面，竞选后期，杜鲁门在摇摆州开展大量竞选活动，最终民调未能及时反映。第二次为2016年民调集体误判，主因是未能捕捉到摇摆州的民意变化。2016年大选，初始民调与最终民调均显示特朗普支持率更低，但在预测选举人得票率上却出现偏差。原因是低学历选民更愿意投给共和党及特朗普，但普遍不愿公开表达对特朗普的支持。在摇摆州，这种现象尤其明显，导致民调机构集体低估特朗普的支持率。因此民调失误往往与候选人“新人效应”及摇摆州民意难以识别有关，但今年，出现此类失误的可能性较低。其一，与以往大选不同，今年大选并无新人，基本可锁定为特朗普与拜登“重赛”。其二，今年摇摆州民意差距已被拉大，七大摇摆州里，特朗普有六个州民调领先，四个州领先幅度达3%以上，已突破2.6%的民调误差范围。民调机构普遍偏向民主党，或指向特朗普领先优势被低估。今年评级前20的民调机构中，16个更倾向于民主党。总体民调机构里，189家偏向共和党，284家偏民主党，比重为1:1.5，明显高于2000至2012年大选的均值1:0.77。2020及2016两次大选中，误差最低的前20场民调里，也各有13个更有利于民主党，偏向共和党的仅各有7个。相比于一般候选人，特朗普民调被低估的程度更高。1936年以来，共和党候选人民调平均被低估0.7个点，特朗普的民调被低估程度更高。2016年，特朗普早期民调被低估3.7个点，最终民调被低估4.1个点。2020年，特朗普同样被低估。两次大选合计，竞选早期，特朗普民调平均被低估2.8个点，最终民调平均被低估3.5个百分点。海外事件&数据：美国2月新增非农就业超预期，薪资增速较弱，失业率升至3.9%超级星期二结束，特朗普、拜登各自锁定党内提名。3月5日大选“超级星期二”，17个州举行初选，大选格局基本明朗。特朗普拿下1066名代表支持，拜登为1866名，各自基本锁定总统候选人提名。截至3月9日，特朗普支持率为47.5%，拜登支持率为45.3%。摇摆州支持率方面，特朗普领先幅度进一步扩大。美国2月新增非农就业人数27.5万，预期20万，过去12个月均值23万，12月、1月合计较修正前大幅减少16.7万。平均时薪同比4.3%，预期4.4%，前值4.5%；环比0.1%，预期0.3%，前值0.5%。失业率意外上升0.2%至3.9%，创2022年2月以来新高，预期3.7%；劳动参与率连续第三个月为62.5%，预期62.6%。截至3月9日，��场定价美联储6月首次降息的概率为57%。3月6日当周，美联储总资产规模小幅下降，美联储BTFP工具使用量微升。负债端，逆回购规模下降，准备金规模有所上升，TGA存款下降。货币市场基金规模上升190亿美元。2月28日当周，美国商业银行存款上升860亿美元。风险提示地缘政治冲突升级；美联储再次转“鹰”；金融条件加速收缩', 'content': 'After \"Super Tuesday\", the pattern of the 2024 US presidential election primaries has been determined. Biden and Trump \"face each other on a narrow road\" again. Who will win this election? Based on an analysis of the accuracy and political leanings of U.S. polls, the report believes that the current poll results may underestimate Trump\\'s vote share by 3.5 percentage points. Hot thoughts: Trump’s support rate may be underestimated. There are many polling organizations in the US election, most of which are media, universities, and think tanks. Polling organizations with top rankings in 2024 include: The New York Times, ABC News, Marquette University, YOUGOV and other institutions. General election polls rely on sample surveys. The quality of a single poll is affected by statistical methods. Errors are inevitable and will be interfered by political leanings. The error of most polls is about plus or minus 1%-4%. On average, in this year’s election, the poll error for Trump and Biden was plus or minus 2.6%. The error of individual polls is difficult to control, and collective polls have more advantages. The latter has become the main basis for judging the direction of the general election. Aggregated polling aggregates and averages the results of a large number of polling agencies to obtain the overall situation of national polling. Mainstream collective polling organizations include FiveThirtyEight (538), RealClearPolitics (RCP) and 270toWin. In the 2020 election, the errors of both RCP and FiveThirtyEight were lower than those of a single local poll, with RCP\\'s error even lower. Early polls for the general election were average, with an accuracy of about 73%. Analysis using aggregated polling data found that out of 22 general elections from 1936 to 2020, early poll predictions were correct in 16. The main reason for the error was the \"newcomer effect\", that is, the candidate participated in the election for the first time and had low initial popularity, leading to biased polls. Low. For example, when Clinton first ran for office in 1992, he was trailing by 11 points in early polls. After excluding the \"newcomer effect\", the accuracy of early polls can reach 80%. The accuracy of the final poll was high, reaching 91%. From 1936 to 2020, the final poll prediction was wrong only twice and correct 20 times. Both errors were related to swing state polls. The first polling error occurred in the 1948 election, when Truman fell behind in the polls but was still elected. On the one hand, this is because the polls for this general election ended early, and on the other hand, in the later stages of the campaign, Truman carried out a large number of campaign activities in swing states, and the final polls were not reflected in time. The second time was the collective misjudgment of the 2016 polls, mainly due to the failure to capture the changes in public opinion in swing states. In the 2016 election, both the initial poll and the final poll showed that Trump\\'s support rate was lower, but there was a deviation in predicting the electoral vote rate. The reason is that voters with low education are more willing to vote for the Republican Party and Trump, but are generally unwilling to publicly express support for Trump. This phenomenon is particularly evident in swing states, causing pollsters to collectively underestimate Trump\\'s support. Therefore, polling errors are often related to the \"newcomer effect\" of candidates and the difficulty in identifying public opinion in swing states, but this year, the possibility of such errors is low. First, unlike previous elections, there are no newcomers in this year’s election, which is basically a rematch between Trump and Biden. Second, the gap in public opinion in swing states has widened this year. Among the seven major swing states, Trump leads in the polls in six states, with a lead of more than 3% in four states, exceeding the 2.6% polling error margin. Pollsters generally favor the Democratic Party and may point to Trump\\'s lead being underestimated. Of the top 20 polling organizations rated this year, 16 favor the Democratic Party. Among the overall polling agencies, 189 favored the Republicans and 284 favored the Democrats, with a ratio of 1:1.5, which was significantly higher than the average of 1:0.77 from the 2000 to 2012 general elections. In the two general elections of 2020 and 2016, the top 20 with the lowest error In the poll, 13 of each party favored the Democrats, while only 7 of each party favored the Republicans. Trump is undervalued in polls to a greater extent than the average candidate. Since 1936, Republican candidate polls have been underestimated by an average of 0.7 points, with Trump polling even more undervalued. In 2016, Trump was underestimated by 3.7 points in early polls and 4.1 points in final polls. In 2020, Trump is also underestimated. Taking the two general elections combined, Trump\\'s polls were underestimated by an average of 2.8 points in the early stages of the campaign, and the final polls were underestimated by an average of 3.5 percentage points. Overseas events & data: The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in February exceeded expectations, wage growth was weak, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. At the end of Super Tuesday, Trump and Biden each locked up their party nominations. On March 5th, the “Super Tuesday” general election, 17 states held primaries, and the general election pattern was basically clear. Trump won the support of 1,066 delegates and Biden 1,866. Each has basically secured the presidential nomination. As of March 9, Trump’s approval rate was 47.5% and Biden’s approval rate was 45.3%. In terms of approval ratings in swing states, Trump\\'s lead further expanded. The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States was 275,000 in February, which was expected to be 200,000. The average number in the past 12 months was 230,000. The total number of non-farm jobs in December and January decreased significantly by 167,000 compared with before the revision. The average hourly wage was 4.3% year-on-year, expected 4.4%, and the previous value was 4.5%; month-on-month, it was 0.1%, expected 0.3%, and the previous value was 0.5%. The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased by 0.2% to 3.9%, hitting a new high since February 2022, and was expected to be 3.7%; the labor participation rate was 62.5% for the third consecutive month, and was expected to be 62.6%. As of March 9, the market priced in a 57% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time in June. In the week of March 6, the total assets of the Federal Reserve declined slightly, and the use of the Fed’s BTFP tool increased slightly. On the liability side, the scale of reverse repurchase decreased, the scale of reserves increased, and TGA deposits decreased. The size of money market funds increased by $19 billion. In the week of February 28, U.S. commercial bank deposits rose by $86 billion. Risks prompt the escalation of geopolitical conflicts; the Fed turns \"hawk\" again; financial conditions accelerate contraction', 'authorid': UUID('5561e32c-d3e7-5cc0-a5d5-33281e23a919'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6187854669988155, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'PEBOKVINLVP5MFH8C9I1UH7M5FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'PEBOKVINLVP5MFH8C9I1UH7M5FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('36ce0c6f-908f-5de3-9ec1-07cf7d4f59e3'), 'title': 'Current economic and policy thinking: three concerns about commodity prices', 'author': 'Yang Chang', 'orgName': '中泰证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000157', 'orgSName': '中泰证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BPEIuQ0p1Svb5ST7UW2AoQI=', 'researcher': '杨畅', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000286037'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BPEIuQ0p1Svb5ST7UW2AoQI=', 'site': 'Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中泰证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626211713_1.pdf?1710152314000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626211713_1.pdf?1710152314000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Current economic and policy thinking: three concerns about commodity prices', 'originalAuthor': '杨畅', 'originalContent': '第一，PPI仍然偏弱，单月环比下降0.2%，连续4个月环比负增长；另外，生产资料环比降幅更大，但生活资料环比下降时间更长；第二，CPI是否走强，单月环比上涨1.0%，主要受节庆假日扰动，计算1-2月均值，相较上年同期下降0.1%，反应同口径比较下的CPI并未走强；第三，服务价格续升。单月环比上涨1.0%，拉长观察维度，仍处于中长期上升通道，尤其是旅游价格，相较2018年基期上涨超过40%；高频数据：生产高位波动，基建运行仍弱，地产成交波动，土地出让仍弱，消费结构差异，出口运价续落，进口运价续升风险提示事件：国内与海外政策变动风险；国内与海外经济波动超预期风险；国际经济贸易摩擦风险', 'content': 'First, PPI is still weak, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, and negative growth month-on-month for 4 consecutive months; in addition, the means of production have fallen even more month-on-month, but the means of living have declined for a longer period of time; second, whether the CPI is strengthening, month-on-month growth has been negative for four consecutive months. It rose by 1.0%, mainly affected by festivals and holidays. Calculating the average value from January to February, it fell by 0.1% compared with the same period last year, reflecting that the CPI did not strengthen under the same caliber; third, service prices continued to rise. It increased by 1.0% month-on-month, extending the observation dimension, and it is still on the medium- to long-term upward channel, especially tourism prices, which increased by more than 40% compared with the base period of 2018; high-frequency data: production fluctuates at a high level, infrastructure operations are still weak, and real estate transactions fluctuate , land transfer is still weak, consumption structure is different, export freight rates continue to fall, and import freight rates continue to rise Risk reminder events: risks of domestic and overseas policy changes; risks of domestic and overseas economic fluctuations exceeding expectations; risks of international economic and trade frictions', 'authorid': UUID('f3afd47c-fdac-5a33-93e8-2b27032e7117'), 'sentimentScore': -0.961857395246625, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'B4OK76922NS820A32090UJ8N5VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:53 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'B4OK76922NS820A32090UJ8N5VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6f9e13f8-bdf7-54ee-a31c-67899a9c8250'), 'title': 'Macro Observation Issue 16, 2024 (Total Issue 527): Interpretation 2 of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": How much investment potential will the new round of \"large-scale equipment updates\" stimulate? ＊', 'author': 'Zhou Jingtong, Liang Jing, Liu Peizhong', 'orgName': '中国银行', 'orgCode': '80001122', 'orgSName': '中国银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BCJ/TFxTzXmT+c3kJ2e7h2M=', 'researcher': '周景彤,梁婧,刘佩忠', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000218248', '11000223840', '11000421835'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BCJ/TFxTzXmT+c3kJ2e7h2M=', 'site': 'Bank of China', 'originalSite': '中国银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209354_1.pdf?1710170511000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209354_1.pdf?1710170511000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Observation Issue 16, 2024 (Total Issue 527): Interpretation 2 of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": How much investment potential will the new round of \"large-scale equipment updates\" stimulate? ＊', 'originalAuthor': '周景彤,梁婧,刘佩忠', 'originalContent': '2024年2月23日，习近平总书记在中央财经委员会第四次会议上提出要“鼓励引导新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，鼓励汽车、家电等传统消费品以旧换新，推动耐用消费品以旧换新”。在刚刚召开的“两会”上，李强总理在《政府工作报告》中提出，要“积极扩大有效投资”“推动生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造”。实施大规模设备更新改造是推动产业转型升级和提振内需的重要抓手，有利于促进生产和服务领域设备绿色化、智能化更新。与以往设备更新工程相比，本轮大规模设备更新“新”在供给与需求协同，生产和服务并重。预计本轮大规模设备更新将拉动整体固定资产投资增长1.2-1.5个百分点，带动GDP增长0.4个百分点左右。政策可考虑再次设立专项再贷款，通过采取税收减免和政府采购等举措调动企业积极性，在推动设备更新改造过程中坚持高标准引领，同时避免政策“一刀切”影响生产稳定。', 'content': 'On February 23, 2024, General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed at the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission to \"encourage and guide a new round of large-scale equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods, encourage the trade-in of traditional consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances, and promote the trade-in of durable consumer goods.\" At the just-convened \"Two Sessions\", Premier Li Qiang proposed in the \"Government Work Report\" that we should \"actively expand effective investment\" and \"promote the updating and technological transformation of production equipment and service equipment.\" Implementing large-scale equipment upgrades is an important step to promote industrial transformation and upgrading and boost domestic demand, and is conducive to promoting green and intelligent updates of equipment in the production and service fields. Compared with previous equipment update projects, this round of large-scale equipment update is \"new\" in the coordination of supply and demand, with equal emphasis on production and service. This round of large-scale equipment renewal is expected to drive overall fixed asset investment growth by 1.2-1.5 percentage points and GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage points. Policies can consider setting up special re-loans again, mobilizing the enthusiasm of enterprises through measures such as tax exemptions and government procurement, and adhering to high standards in the process of promoting equipment upgrading and transformation, while avoiding \"one-size-fits-all\" policies that affect production stability.', 'authorid': UUID('0096e444-d3cb-592a-9be2-23ce58977a07'), 'sentimentScore': 0.4823253033682704, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KC1UHNEL1PB9DT1AB5GLVJ4V4FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:55 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KC1UHNEL1PB9DT1AB5GLVJ4V4FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f90fb51a-6161-53a8-b9a8-b527807467a4'), 'title': 'Comments on February inflation data: CPI returns to positive level, can it be sustained?', 'author': 'Xiao Yu', 'orgName': '中泰证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000157', 'orgSName': '中泰证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BBqQCuCS5dgcWC1m2+SzQ54=', 'researcher': '肖雨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000255536'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BBqQCuCS5dgcWC1m2+SzQ54=', 'site': 'Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中泰证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209346_1.pdf?1710153181000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209346_1.pdf?1710153181000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February inflation data: CPI returns to positive level, can it be sustained?', 'originalAuthor': '肖雨', 'originalContent': '投资要点事件：统计局公布，2024年2月CPI同比上涨0.7%，环比上涨1.0%；PPI同比下降2.7%，环比下降0.2%。我们点评如下：CPI：2月CPI同比0.7%（前值-0.8%），高于预期值0.4%，自2023年9月份以来首度回正。CPI环比上涨1.0%；核心CPI同比增速为1.2%（2023年12月和2024年1月分别为0.6%、0.4%）。CPI同比增速回正，可能一方面受到春节错位因素影响，去年2月份春节后物价回落，而今年2月份春节物价上涨；另一方面，猪肉、旅游价格1-2月同比增速较快，是本次居民价格指数超预期上行的主要拉动项，二者分别对应三分法中的食品项和服务项。三分法来看，食品项同比由-5.9%回升至-0.9%，拉动CPI回落约0.2个百分点，对CPI的拖累减小；工业消费品同比由0.2%升至0.3%，拉动CPI回升0.1个百分点；服务项同比增速由0.5%回升至1.9%，拉动CPI约0.8个百分点。八大项中，食品烟酒、教育文化娱乐、交通通信是2月份CPI的主要拉动项。1）食品烟酒：猪肉价格同环比均上涨。2月份食品烟酒同比增速-0.1%，相比2023年12月上升1.9个百分点；1-2月同比增速（-1.9%）相比12月份上升0.1个百分点。其中，猪肉、蛋类和水产品同比增速较快，剔除春节效应，考虑1-2月同比增速，三者相比2023年12月份分别高出17.0、1.2和1.0个百分点。猪肉价格结束了去年10月份以来的环比下行，2月份逆势回升7.2个百分点，而2021-2023年同期猪肉价格均环比回落；从同比来看，2023年12月、2024年1月猪肉价格增速分别为-26.1%、-17.3%，处在猪周期价格下行的阶段，而2月份同比转正至0.2%。但猪肉价格是否已经走出下行周期，还是仅由春节期间物价总体上行驱动仍需观察。2）教育文化娱乐：春节假期延长，旅游需求旺盛。2月份教育文化娱乐同比增速3.9%，相比2023年12月上升2.1个百分点；1-2月同比增速（2.6%）相比12月份上升0.8个百分点。教育文化娱乐内含教育服务和旅游两个分项，其中教育服务2月份同比增速1.7%，旅游分项增长23.1%，因此主要由旅游价格带动。从环比来看，2月份旅游价格增速13.1%，明显超季节性。去年年底，中办、国办《关于做好2024年元旦春节期间有关工作的通知》提出，鼓励各单位结合带薪年休假等制度落实，安排职工在除夕休息。因此2024年春节相比往年有所延长，叠加交运部加强重点时段、热点路线运力储备和供给，最大限度满足群众出行需求，今年春节期间旅游需求相对旺盛，推升了旅游分项价格。3）交通通信：春运、旅游需求推升交通价格。2月份交通通信同比增速-0.4%，相比2023年12月上升1.8个百分点；1-2月同比增速（-1.4%）相比12月份上升0.8个百分��。其中，交通工具使用和维修、交通工具使用燃料2月份同比增速分别为2.9%和0.8%，1-2月同比增速分别为0.9%和0.3%，均相比去年12月份有所上行。2月PPI同比下降2.7%，低于Wind一致预期（-2.5%）。在2月份的PPI同比增速中，去年价格变动的翘尾影响约为-2.3个百分点，新涨价影响约为-0.4个百分点。从分项来看，生产资料价格由上月的同比-3.0%回落至-3.4%，生活资料价格回升0.2个百分点至-0.9%。在主要行业中，油气开采2月份正增长（4.2%），其余行业多数负增长，煤炭开采和洗选业负增长程度较大（-14.7%）。2月份，PPI与CPI剪刀差由-1.7%回落1.7个百分点至-3.4%。CPI正增长能否持续？我们认为3月份仍将维持正增长。从影响CPI最主要的两个因素，即猪肉价格和原油价格来看，首先，2023年上半年猪肉价格连续环比回落，3月份环比增速-4.2%，意味着3月份猪肉价格基数进一步降低，即便本月猪肉价格在春节效应消退之后上升速度减缓、持平甚至微降，猪肉价格都将对CPI形成一定支撑。其次，从原油价格来看，去年3月份油价先降后升，中枢相比2月份有所降低，意味着油价基数将有所下降，假使本月油价未出现明显趋势性变动，原油分项对CPI的拉动作用将有所上升。最后，2月份旅游价格的超季节性上行可能会在3月份消退，旅游分项对CPI的贡献回归正常水平。但“猪油共振”下，3月份CPI预计仍为正数。政策层面，潘功胜行长在十四届全国人大二次会议经济主题记者会上答记者问上明确表示，“我们将把维护价格稳定、推动价格温和回升作为货币政策的重要考量”，因此通胀的温和回升既具有一定的现实基础，也与政策导向相一致。但2月份通胀数据“开门红”能否指示经济基本面的进一步修复可能仍需观察。春节效应以及旅游需求的超季节性增长是难以完全剔除的因素。2月份经济修复的效果以及持续性如何还需等待后续金融、经济数据的进一步验证。风险提示：猪肉价格、原油价格超预期波动等。', 'content': 'Key investment events: The Bureau of Statistics announced that in February 2024, CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month; PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Our comments are as follows: CPI: The CPI in February was 0.7% year-on-year (previous value -0.8%), 0.4% higher than the expected value, and returned to positive for the first time since September 2023. CPI increased by 1.0% month-on-month; core CPI growth rate was 1.2% year-on-year (0.6% and 0.4% in December 2023 and January 2024 respectively). The year-on-year growth rate of CPI has returned to positive. On the one hand, it may be affected by the misalignment of the Spring Festival. In February last year, prices fell after the Spring Festival, but in February this year, prices rose during the Spring Festival. On the other hand, pork and tourism prices grew faster year-on-year in January and February. It is the main driver of the unexpected increase in the resident price index this time. The two correspond to the food items and service items in the three-point rule respectively. Judging from the three-point rule, food items rose from -5.9% to -0.9% year-on-year, driving the CPI back by about 0.2 percentage points, reducing the drag on CPI; industrial consumer goods rose from 0.2% to 0.3% year-on-year, driving the CPI back up by 0.1 percentage points percentage points; the year-on-year growth rate of services rebounded from 0.5% to 1.9%, driving CPI by about 0.8 percentage points. Among the eight major items, food, tobacco and alcohol, education, culture and entertainment, transportation and communications were the main driving items of CPI in February. 1) Food, tobacco and alcohol: Pork prices increased year-on-month. The year-on-year growth rate of food, tobacco and alcohol in February was -0.1%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points compared with December 2023; the year-on-year growth rate from January to February (-1.9%) was an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared with December. Among them, pork, eggs and aquatic products have faster year-on-year growth rates. Excluding the Spring Festival effect and considering the year-on-year growth rates from January to February, the three are 17.0, 1.2 and 1.0 percentage points higher than in December 2023 respectively. Pork prices ended their month-on-month decline since October last year, bucking the trend and rebounding by 7.2 percentage points in February, while pork prices fell month-on-month in the same period from 2021 to 2023; from a year-on-year perspective, pork prices increased in December 2023 and January 2024. The growth rates were -26.1% and -17.3% respectively, which is in the downward stage of the pig cycle price. In February, the year-on-year price turned positive to 0.2%. However, it remains to be seen whether pork prices have exited the downward cycle, or whether they are only driven by the overall rise in prices during the Spring Festival. 2) Education, culture and entertainment: The Spring Festival holiday is extended and tourism demand is strong. In February, the year-on-year growth rate of education, culture and entertainment was 3.9%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared with December 2023; the year-on-year growth rate from January to February (2.6%) was an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared with December. Education, culture and entertainment include two sub-categories: educational services and tourism. Among them, educational services grew by 1.7% year-on-year in February, and the tourism sub-category increased by 23.1%, so it was mainly driven by tourism prices. From a month-on-month perspective, tourism prices increased by 13.1% in February, which was obviously super seasonal. At the end of last year, the \"Notice on Doing Relevant Work During the New Year\\'s Day and Spring Festival in 2024\" issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council proposed to encourage all units to implement systems such as paid annual leave and arrange for employees to rest on New Year\\'s Eve. Therefore, the Spring Festival in 2024 has been extended compared with previous years. In addition, the Ministry of Transport has strengthened the capacity reserve and supply of key periods and hot routes to meet the travel needs of the masses to the greatest extent. Tourism demand during the Spring Festival this year is relatively strong, pushing up the price of tourism items. 3) Transportation and communications: Spring Festival transportation and tourism demand push up transportation prices. The year-on-year growth rate of transportation and communications in February was -0.4%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points compared with December 2023; the year-on-year growth rate from January to February (-1.4%) was an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared with December. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of vehicle use and maintenance and vehicle fuel use in February were 2.9% and 0.8% respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates from January to February were 0.9% and 0.3% respectively, both of which were higher than in December last year. PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year in February, lower than Wind\\'s consensus forecast (-2.5%). In the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in February, the impact of price changes last year was approximately -2.3 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was approximately -0.4 percentage points. In terms of items, the price of means of production dropped to -3.4% from -3.0% year-on-year last month, and the price of means of living rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to -0.9%. Among the major industries, oil and gas extraction had positive growth in February (4.2%), while most other industries had negative growth. The coal mining and washing industry had a relatively large negative growth (-14.7%). In February, the scissor gap between PPI and CPI fell by 1.7 percentage points from -1.7% to -3.4%. Can positive CPI growth be sustained? We believe that positive growth will still be maintained in March. Judging from the two most important factors affecting CPI, namely pork price and crude oil price, first of all, pork price continued to fall month-on-month in the first half of 2023, with a month-on-month growth rate of -4.2% in March, which means that the base of pork prices in March further dropped. Even if the rise in pork prices this month slows down, remains flat or even drops slightly after the Spring Festival effect subsides, pork prices will provide some support for CPI. Secondly, from the perspective of crude oil prices, in March last year, oil prices first fell and then rose. The center was lower than that in February, which means that the oil price base will decline. If there is no obvious trend change in oil prices this month, the crude oil sub-item comparison The pulling effect of CPI will increase. Finally, the super-seasonal rise in tourism prices in February may subside in March, and the contribution of the tourism component to CPI returns to normal levels. However, under the \"lard resonance\", the CPI in March is still expected to be positive. At the policy level, Governor Pan Gongsheng made it clear in answering questions from reporters at the economic press conference of the Second Session of the 14th National People’s Congress that “we will regard maintaining price stability and promoting a moderate price recovery as an important consideration in monetary policy.” Therefore, the impact of inflation A moderate rebound has a certain realistic basis and is also consistent with policy guidance. However, it may still need to be seen whether the \"good start\" in February\\'s inflation data can indicate further repair of economic fundamentals. The Spring Festival effect and the super-seasonal increase in tourism demand are factors that are difficult to completely eliminate. The effectiveness and sustainability of economic recovery in February still need to be further verified by subsequent financial and economic data. Risk warning: Pork prices and crude oil prices fluctuate beyond expectations, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('8140c451-8a6a-5e7d-961a-cec7a4ef1548'), 'sentimentScore': -0.48846253752708435, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'R6M8RCH8G1CNUDS6OB8R52MUT3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:41:58 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'R6M8RCH8G1CNUDS6OB8R52MUT3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('814d3f4a-9dcf-5087-957d-09174dc2ab13'), 'title': 'Macro Observation Issue 15, 2024 (Total Issue 526): Interpretation 1 of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": What is the potential of the new round of \"old-for-new\" policy for consumer goods? ＊', 'author': 'Zhou Jingtong, Liang Jing, Fan Ruoying', 'orgName': '中国银行', 'orgCode': '80001122', 'orgSName': '中国银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BFNUXe9It7NbFS59ix66Y6g=', 'researcher': '周景彤,梁婧,范若滢', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000218248', '11000223840', '11000257148'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BFNUXe9It7NbFS59ix66Y6g=', 'site': 'Bank of China', 'originalSite': '中国银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209345_1.pdf?1710169431000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209345_1.pdf?1710169431000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Observation Issue 15, 2024 (Total Issue 526): Interpretation 1 of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": What is the potential of the new round of \"old-for-new\" policy for consumer goods? ＊', 'originalAuthor': '周景彤,梁婧,范若滢', 'originalContent': '近年来，消费对我国经济增长的拉动作用越来越大。在刚刚召开的“两会”上，李强总理所做的《政府工作报告》提出要促进消费稳定增长，鼓励和推动消费品以旧换新，提振智能网联新能源汽车、电子产品等大宗消费。预计，新一轮消费品“以旧换新”政策将催生新的消费增长点。根据定量测算，在不同情形下，本轮“以旧换新”政策有望激发新增汽车、家电需求估计约为2109-6293亿元，将拉动GDP增长约0.16-0.5个百分点。若本轮消费品“以旧换新”政策配合新能源汽车、新型家电下乡等优惠政策，则有望释放更大消费潜力。但本轮消费品“以旧换新”政策也面临一些堵点和难点，需进一步完善相关政策，更大程度发挥政策潜力，以更好达到促消费稳增长的目的。金融业要紧扣国家发展大局，持续提升金融产品与服务质效，充分把握本轮消费品“以旧换新”政策带来的市场机遇，当好服务实体经济的主力军。', 'content': 'In recent years, consumption has played an increasingly important role in driving my country\\'s economic growth. At the just-convened \"Two Sessions\", the \"Government Work Report\" delivered by Prime Minister Li Qiang proposed to promote stable growth of consumption, encourage and promote the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, and boost bulk consumption such as intelligent connected new energy vehicles and electronic products. It is expected that a new round of “old-for-new” policy for consumer goods will generate new consumption growth points. According to quantitative calculations, under different circumstances, this round of \"old-for-new\" policy is expected to stimulate new demand for cars and home appliances estimated at about 210.9-629.3 billion yuan, which will boost GDP growth by about 0.16-0.5 percentage points. If this round of \"old-for-new\" policies for consumer goods are combined with preferential policies such as new energy vehicles and new home appliances going to the countryside, it is expected to unleash greater consumption potential. However, this round of \"old-for-new\" policy for consumer goods also faces some blockages and difficulties. It is necessary to further improve relevant policies and maximize policy potential to better achieve the purpose of promoting consumption and steady growth. The financial industry must closely follow the overall development of the country, continue to improve the quality and efficiency of financial products and services, fully seize the market opportunities brought by this round of \"old-for-new\" consumer goods policy, and serve as the main force in serving the real economy.', 'authorid': UUID('949a7f7d-42a2-5852-9729-a77373a7fd46'), 'sentimentScore': 0.7064312128350139, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GI8HU170J63I8DVTO5AS86938NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:42:01 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GI8HU170J63I8DVTO5AS86938NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f463a5ec-fa00-5129-b1bf-f48d94eba079'), 'title': 'Comments on inflation data in February 2024: CPI higher than expected, PPI lower than expected', 'author': 'Ye Fan, Wang Runmeng, Liu Yanhong', 'orgName': '西南证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000296', 'orgSName': '西南证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BM7YDt+AEbReeU0d7MDzPiA=', 'researcher': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000263735', '11000418732', '11000440469'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BM7YDt+AEbReeU0d7MDzPiA=', 'site': 'Southwest Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '西南证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209329_1.pdf?1710153389000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209329_1.pdf?1710153389000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on inflation data in February 2024: CPI higher than expected, PPI lower than expected', 'originalAuthor': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'originalContent': '点评春节错位叠加天气影响，CPI同比超预期上涨。同比来看，2024年2月，春节错位效应，叠加天气因素影响供给，CPI同比由上月下降0.8%转为上涨0.7%，涨幅超出市场预期。其中，食品价格的拖累有所减弱，食品CPI同比降幅大幅收窄5个百分点至-0.9%，影响CPI下降约0.17个百分点，非食品价格同比涨幅扩大0.7个百分点至1.1%，影响CPI上涨约0.89个百分点；环比来看，春节期间消费需求增加，加之部分地区雨雪天气影响供给，2月CPI环比上涨1%，涨幅扩大0.7个百分点，连续三个月上涨，但小幅低于2015-2019年春节当月CPI环比平均水平1.2%。其中，食品价格环比涨幅扩大2.9个百分点至3.3%，影响CPI上涨约0.58个百分点，春节期间出行和文娱消费增多，非食品价格上涨0.5%，涨幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点，影响CPI上涨约0.44个百分点。2月，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅较上月扩大0.8个百分点，为2022年2月以来最高涨幅，环比上涨0.5%，涨幅扩大0.2个百分点。鲜菜价格环比大涨，猪肉价格环比结束下行。同比来看，2月食品细项中除粮食、鲜菜、水产品、卷烟类价格同比上升外，其余食品类价格同比均下降。鲜菜价格同比增速回升最多，其次是畜肉类、水产品、鲜果等，而酒类同比降幅扩大。其中，畜肉类价格同比降幅收窄8.7个百分点至-2.9%，2月在春节消费带动下猪肉价格有所回升，加之春节错位使得基数走低，猪肉价格同比由下降17.3%转为上涨0.2%，在连续下降9个月后首次转涨；在节日需求拉动以及采摘、运输成本上涨下，鲜菜价格季节性上行，再加上春节错位，鲜菜价格同比由下降12.7%转为上涨2.9%；春节期间，水产品需求增加，叠加基数效应，水产品价格同比由下降3.4%转为上涨4.1%。环比来看，节日效应叠加天气影响供应和运输，鲜菜、水产品、鲜果、畜肉类及卷烟价格环比上行。其中，鲜菜价格环比上涨最多，涨幅达12.7%，较上月扩大8.9个百分点；猪肉价格环比由上月下降0.2%转为上涨7.2%，结束了连续四个月的环比下降；水产品价格环比上涨6.2%，涨幅扩大3.6个百分点；鲜果价格环比由下降0.5%转为上涨4.3%。春节假期带动，以及养殖端惜售挺价，猪肉价格有所反弹，但节后终端需求下滑，养殖端出栏节奏逐渐恢复，猪价有所回落。但后续随着生猪产能持续去化，猪肉价格有望逐步企稳。此外，随着气温逐渐回升，蔬菜供应逐步恢复，鲜菜价格或有所下滑。截至2024年3月8日，高频数据显示3月初28种重点监测蔬菜同比由下降转为上涨，7种重点监测水果价格和鸡蛋平均批发价同比降幅扩大，猪肉平均批发价同比由上涨转为下降；28种重点监测蔬菜、猪肉平均批发价环比由上涨转为下降，7种重点监测水果价格环比涨幅收敛，鸡蛋平均批发价环比降幅扩大。2024年3月，预计在春节效应消退之后主要食品类别价格将有所回落，食品CPI同比增速将走低，但中期随着供给逐渐去化，食品CPI有望逐步回升。旅游价格表现亮眼，交通工具用燃料价格同比转涨。2月，非食品中消费品价格同比降幅收窄1.6个百分点至-0.1%，服务价格同比涨幅扩大1.4个百分点至1.9%。其中，七大类价格同比六涨一降，交通通信、教育文化娱乐、医疗保健和其他用品及服务价格同比增速上升，衣着价格同比增速持平，居住和生活用品及服务同比增速回落。交通工具用燃料��格同比由下降0.1%转为上涨0.8%，旅游价格同比涨幅扩大21.3个百分点至23.1%，飞机票和交通工具租赁费也同比上涨20.8%和17.4%，主要因春节错位下基数较低。七大类价格环比三涨一平三降，春节期间出行和文娱消费需求大幅增加，飞机票、交通工具租赁费、旅游、电影及演出票价格涨幅在12.5%-23.0%之间，合计影响CPI上涨约0.30个百分点。其中旅游价格环比为2011年以来最大涨幅；受国际油价上行影响，国内汽油价格由上月下降1.0%转为上涨2.0%，影响CPI上涨约0.07个百分点。而衣着、据国家发改委，自3月4日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别提高125元、120元，或带动交通工具用燃料价格继续走高，春节效应消退后，旅游等服务价格或将逐渐回落至淡季水平，预计非食品价格短期涨幅也将有所收敛。PPI同比降幅超预期扩大，与工业淡季和复工节奏有关。2月PPI同比降幅较1月扩大0.2个百分点至-2.7%，低于市场预期，与CPI的走势分化，除了工业淡季因素之外，可能也与春节后复工节奏偏慢有关。其中，生产资料同比降幅较上月扩大0.4个百分点至-3.4%，生活资料价格同比降幅较上月收敛0.2个百分点至-0.9%。主要行业中，化学原料和化学制品制造业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业、电气机械和器材制造业4个行业价格同比降幅比上月均扩大，合计影响PPI同比下降约1.17个百分点，对PPI的下拉作用比上月增加0.19个百分点。煤炭开采和洗选业、非金属矿物制品业、计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业价格同比也走低，合计影响PPI同比下降约0.92个百分点。从环比看，PPI环比下降0.2%，降幅与上月相同。其中，生产资料价格下降0.3%，降幅扩大0.1个百分点；生活资料价格下降0.1%，降幅收敛0.1个百分点。国际原油价格上行，带动国内石油相关行业价格上涨，其中石油和天然气开采业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业价格分别环比上涨2.5%和0.2%；市场需求改善带动有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨0.2%；北方气温偏高，采暖用煤需求减少，加之非电用煤需求季节性偏弱，煤炭开采和洗选业价格下降0.7%；春节假日房地产、基建项目停工等因素影响下，钢材、水泥等行业需求减少，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、水泥制造价格分别下降0.4%、1.4%；此外，锂离子电池制造、新能源车整车制造、计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业价格环比也呈下行态势。从国际上看，OPEC+减产延长至二季度，且全球制造业周期有启动迹象，1、2月全球制造业PMI均升至荣枯线上，但美国等发达国家利率依然较高，对经济的滞后效应或将逐渐显现，2月美国失业率上升0.2个点至3.9%，需求端或依然偏弱，供需因素下预计国际油价将呈震荡走势。从国内来看，稳增长政策力度不减，今年两会提出3%赤字率和1万亿元超长期特别国债，而且提出优化房地产政策，有望支撑国内基建和地产开工，国内相关工业品价格有望得到提振，尤其是即将进入到节后金三银四开工旺季，预计PPI同比降幅有望逐步收敛。预计短期CPI同比增速回落，PPI同比降幅收敛。2月，CPI和PPI同比走势分化，CPI继续高于PPI，CPI-PPI剪刀差较1月扩大至3.4个百分点。CPI方面，在2月份0.7%的CPI同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-0.6个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为1.3个百分点。春节效应消退之后主要食品类别价格将有所回落，食品CPI同比增速预计将走低，成品油价格上升对非食品价格有支撑，但旅游等服务价格或将逐渐回落至淡季水平，预计非食品价格短期涨幅也将有所收敛。综合来看3月份CPI同比增速或回落，但中期来看随着需求转好、供给下降CPI仍具备回升基础；PPI方面，在2月份-2.7%的PPI同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-2.3个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为-0.4个百分点。国际油价短期或呈震荡态势，政策或支撑国内相关工业品价格，预计PPI同比降幅逐步收敛。风险提示：需求复苏不及预期、国际大宗商品价格波动超预期。', 'content': '点评春节错位叠加天气影响，CPI同比超预期上涨。同比来看，2024年2月，春节错位效应，叠加天气因素影响供给，CPI同比由上月下降0.8%转为上涨0.7%，涨幅超出市场预期。其中，食品价格的拖累有所减弱，食品CPI同比降幅大幅收窄5个百分点至-0.9%，影响CPI下降约0.17个百分点，非食品价格同比涨幅扩大0.7个百分点至1.1%，影响CPI上涨约0.89个百分点；环比来看，春节期间消费需求增加，加之部分地区雨雪天气影响供给，2月CPI环比上涨1%，涨幅扩大0.7个百分点，连续三个月上涨，但小幅低于2015-2019年春节当月CPI环比平均水平1.2%。其中，食品价格环比涨幅扩大2.9个百分点至3.3%，影响CPI上涨约0.58个百分点，春节期间出行和文娱消费增多，非食品价格上涨0.5%，涨幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点，影响CPI上涨约0.44个百分点。2月，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅较上月扩大0.8个百分点，为2022年2月以来最高涨幅，环比上涨0.5%，涨幅扩大0.2个百分点。鲜菜价格环比大涨，猪肉价格环比结束下行。同比来看，2月食品细项中除粮食、鲜菜、水产品、卷烟类价格同比上升外，其余食品类价格同比均下降。鲜菜价格同比增速回升最多，其次是畜肉类、水产品、鲜果等，而酒类同比降幅扩大。其中，畜肉类价格同比降幅收窄8.7个百分点至-2.9%，2月在春节消费带动下猪肉价格有所回升，加之春节错位使得基数走低，猪肉价格同比由下降17.3%转为上涨0.2%，在连续下降9个月后首次转涨；在节日需求拉动以及采摘、运输成本上涨下，鲜菜价格季节性上行，再加上春节错位，鲜菜价格同比由下降12.7%转为上涨2.9%；春节期间，水产品需求增加，叠加基数效应，水产品价格同比由下降3.4%转为上涨4.1%。环比来看，节日效应叠加天气影响供应和运输，鲜菜、水产品、鲜果、畜肉类及卷烟价格环比上行。其中，鲜菜价格环比上涨最多，涨幅达12.7%，较上月扩大8.9个百分点；猪肉价格环比由上月下降0.2%转为上涨7.2%，结束了连续四个月的环比下降；水产品价格环比上涨6.2%，涨幅扩大3.6个百分点；鲜果价格环比由下降0.5%转为上涨4.3%。春节假期带动，以及养殖端惜售挺价，猪肉价格有所反弹，但节后终端需求下滑，养殖端出栏节奏逐渐恢复，猪价有所回落。但后续随着生猪产能持续去化，猪肉价格有望逐步企稳。此外，随着气温逐渐回升，蔬菜供应逐步恢复，鲜菜价格或有所下滑。截至2024年3月8日，高频数据显示3月初28种重点监测蔬菜同比由下降转为上涨，7种重点监测水果价格和鸡蛋平均批发价同比降幅扩大，猪肉平均批发价同比由上涨转为下降；28种重点监测蔬菜、猪肉平均批发价环比由上涨转为下降，7种重点监测水果价格环比涨幅收敛，鸡蛋平均批发价环比降幅扩大。2024年3月，预计在春节效应消退之后主要食品类别价格将有所回落，食品CPI同比增速将走低，但中期随着供给逐渐去化，食品CPI有望逐步回升。旅游价格表现亮眼，交通工具用燃料价格同比转涨。2月，非食品中消费品价格同比降幅收窄1.6个百分点至-0.1%，服务价格同比涨幅扩大1.4个百分点至1.9%。其中，七大类价格同比六涨一降，交通通信、教育文化娱乐、医疗保健和其他用品及服务价格同比增速上升，衣着价格同比增速持平，居住和生活用品及服务同比增速回落。交通工具用燃料价格同比由下降0.1%转为上涨0.8%，旅游价格同比涨幅扩大21.3个百分点至23.1%，飞机票和交通工具租赁费也同比上涨20.8%和17.4%，主要因春节错位下基数较低。七大类价格环比三涨一平三降，春节期间出行和文娱消费需求大幅增加，飞机票、交通工具租赁费、旅游、电影及演出票价格涨幅在12.5%-23.0%之间，合计影响CPI上涨约0.30个百分点。其中旅游价格环比为2011年以来最大涨幅；受国际油价上行影响，国内汽油价格由上月下降1.0%转为上涨2.0%，影响CPI上涨约0.07个百分点。而衣着、据国家发改委，自3月4日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别提高125元、120元，或带动交通工具用燃料价格继续走高，春节效应消退后，旅游等服务价格或将逐渐回落至淡季水平，预计非食品价格短期涨幅也将有所收敛。PPI同比降幅超预期扩大，与工业淡季和复工节奏有关。2月PPI同比降幅较1月扩大0.2个百分点至-2.7%，低于市场预期，与CPI的走势分化，除了工业淡季因素之外，可能也与春节后复工节奏偏慢有关。其中，生产资料同比降幅较上月扩大0.4个百分点至-3.4%，生活资料价格同比降幅较上月收敛0.2个百分点至-0.9%。主要行业中，化学原料和化学制品制造业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业、电气机械和器材制造业4个行业价格同比降幅比上月均扩大，合计影响PPI同比下降约1.17个百分点，对PPI的下拉作用比上月增加0.19个百分点。煤炭开采和洗选业、非金属矿物制品业、计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业价格同比也走低，合计影响PPI同比下降约0.92个百分点。从环比看，PPI环比下降0.2%，降幅与上月相同。其中，生产资料价格下降0.3%，降幅扩大0.1个百分点；生活资料价格下降0.1%，降幅收敛0.1个百分点。国际原油价格上行，带动国内石油相关行业价格上涨，其中石油和天然气开采业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业价格分别环比上涨2.5%和0.2%；市场需求改善带动有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨0.2%；北方气温偏高，采暖用煤需求减少，加之非电用煤需求季节性偏弱，煤炭开采和洗选业价格下降0.7%；春节假日房地产、基建项目停工等因素影响下，钢材、水泥等行业需求减少，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、水泥制造价格分别下降0.4%、1.4%；此外，锂离子电池制造、新能源车整车制造、计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业价格环比也呈下行态势。从国际上看，OPEC+减产延长至二季度，且全球制造业周期有启动迹象，1、2月全球制造业PMI均升至荣枯线上，但美国等发达国家利率依然较高，对经济的滞后效应或将逐渐显现，2月美国失业率上升0.2个点至3.9%，需求端或依然偏弱，供需因素下预计国际油价将呈震荡走势。从国内来看，稳增长政策力度不减，今年两会提出3%赤字率和1万亿元超长期特别国债，而且提出优化房地产政策，有望支撑国内基建和地产开工，国内相关工业品价格有望得到提振，尤其是即将进入到节后金三银四开工旺季，预计PPI同比降幅有望逐步收敛。预计短期CPI同比增速回落，PPI同比降幅收敛。2月，CPI和PPI同比走势分化，CPI继续高于PPI，CPI-PPI剪刀差较1月扩大至3.4个百分点。CPI方面，在2月份0.7%的CPI同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-0.6个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为1.3个百分点。春节效应消退之后主要食品类别价格将有所回落，食品CPI同比增速预计将走低，成品油价格上升对非食品价格有支撑，但旅游等服务价格或将逐渐回落至淡季水平，预计非食品价格短期涨幅也将有所收敛。综合来看3月份CPI同比增速或回落，但中期来看随着需求转好、供给下降CPI仍具备回升基础；PPI方面，在2月份-2.7%的PPI同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-2.3个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为-0.4个百分点。国际油价短期或呈震荡态势，政策或支撑国内相关工业品价格，预计PPI同比降幅逐步收敛。风险提示：需求复苏不及预期、国际大宗商品价格波动超预期。', 'authorid': UUID('d3389991-b216-5572-82e3-6396ad6aed04'), 'sentimentScore': -0.01342424750328064, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '2S2NNU3LRR34H2MTI6QRFEOOCNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:42:05 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '2S2NNU3LRR34H2MTI6QRFEOOCNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1c5ee797-80a1-5e52-bbae-59229ad6b369'), 'title': 'Industry Chapter Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Focus on new productivity and promote high-quality development', 'author': 'Li Fan, Song Xiaowen, Wang Baoquan, Hu Guodong, Wang Hailiang', 'orgName': '招商银行股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BOHa+hJExL4ddlWBny9XSBc=', 'researcher': '李凡,宋小雯,王宝权,胡国栋,王海量', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000298611', '11000426031', '11000325650', '11000318232', '11000291134'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BOHa+hJExL4ddlWBny9XSBc=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209326_1.pdf?1710168575000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209326_1.pdf?1710168575000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Industry Chapter Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Focus on new productivity and promote high-quality development', 'originalAuthor': '李凡,宋小雯,王宝权,胡国栋,王海量', 'originalContent': '2024年3月5日，十四届全国人大二次会议在京召开，李强总理代表国务院作政府工作报告（以下简称《报告》）。2024年总量增长设定为5%左右、财政特别国债适度发力、就业和能耗目标进取，宏观稳增长意图较为明确。聚焦2024年重点工作，《报告》不仅延续“大力推进现代化产业体系建设”这一经济重心，还新增“深入实施科教兴国战略”作为第二项重点工作,体现出我国将致力于打造新质生产力；并在对外开放、农业、新型城镇化、降碳等领域以结构优化升级为政策导向，促进经济长期高质量发展。一、总览：延续稳增长信号，着力推进高质量发展在肯定2023年工作成绩的基础上，《报告》延续“稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破”的政策思路，提出2024年经济社会发展目标和重点工作，整体基调与中央经济工作会议一脉相承。（1）总量目标：积极进取GDP增速目标：5%左右。由于2024年面临更高的基数，该增速目标意味着今年经济动能需要较2023年实现进一步修复。考虑到有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱、风险隐患仍然较多、国内大循环存在堵点、国际循环存在干扰等困难和挑战仍存，实现预期目标需要政策聚焦发力、积极进取。宏观政策：财政政策适度加力、提质增效，货币政策灵活适度、精准有效，与中央经济工作会议表述一致。值得关注的结构性特征在于，财政政策方面，中央财政加大发力。从今年开始，拟连续几年发行专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设的超长期特别国债，中央加杠杆的政策方向具有可持续性。聚焦2024年，1万亿元超长期特别国债发行，叠加去年10月增发的万亿国债陆续形成实物工作量，有望对基建形成支撑。货币政策方面，结构调节重在提升效能。直面金融体系“资金空转”现象，《报告》明确指出要畅通货币政策传导机制。同时，信贷投放要提升质量，重点发展“五篇大文章”。另外，城镇调查失业率、CPI涨幅、居民收入等预期目标与2023年政府工作报告一致；而城镇新增就业和能耗目标则较2023年更为进取。（2）产业政策：高质发展，统筹配合整体看，围绕高质量发展主线展开部署。今年《报告》的重点任务安排基本延续了中央经济工作会议的部署，体现了政策的连续性。高质量发展依然是各领域的工作主线，这主要是因为近年来经济增速的放缓反映出资本产出效率下滑的内在问题，引导各领域结构升级将有望注入经济增长新动力。横向看，不同领域之间的政策统筹性强。1）培育壮大新型消费与现代化产业体系建设：《报告》指出要“实施数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费促进政策”，这些新型消费的发展离不开传统产业高端化、智能化、绿色化的转型升级；智能家居、文娱旅游、体育赛事、国货“潮品”等新增长点，及智能网联新能源汽车、电子产品等大宗消费，均需依托于现代服务业与先进制造业的深度融合，符合现代化产业体系建设的融合化趋势。2）科教兴国战略与新质生产力：科教兴国战略的核心要义是教育、科技、人才统筹推进，与创新驱动发展战略密不可分，是新质生产力的发展引擎。3）扩大有效投资与城乡融合发展：政府投资要重点支持新型基础设施，鼓励民间资本参与重大项目建设，与新型城镇化下的城市更新行动和县域经济密切相关。具体看，细节丰富，有助于政策精准发力。相较于中央经济工作会议，《报告》对于多领域的产业政策部署进行了细化和丰富，我们将在下文对主要领域做展开分析。', 'content': 'On March 5, 2024, the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress was held in Beijing. Premier Li Qiang delivered a government work report (hereinafter referred to as the \"Report\") on behalf of the State Council. The total growth in 2024 is set to be around 5%, fiscal and special government debt will be deployed appropriately, employment and energy consumption targets are aggressive, and the intention to stabilize macroeconomic growth is relatively clear. Focusing on the key tasks in 2024, the \"Report\" not only continues the economic focus of \"vigorously promoting the construction of a modern industrial system\", but also adds \"in-depth implementation of the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education\" as the second key task, reflecting our country\\'s commitment to creating new quality Productivity; and in the fields of opening up, agriculture, new urbanization, carbon reduction and other fields, we will take structural optimization and upgrading as policy guidance to promote long-term high-quality economic development. 1. Overview: Continue the signal of stable growth and strive to promote high-quality development. On the basis of affirming the work achievements in 2023, the \"Report\" continues the policy thinking of \"seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through advancement, and establishing first before breaking\", and proposes 2024 The overall tone of the economic and social development goals and key tasks for the year is consistent with that of the Central Economic Work Conference. (1) Aggregate target: Aggressive GDP growth target: around 5%. Since 2024 faces a higher base, this growth target means that the economic momentum this year needs to be further restored compared with 2023. Considering that difficulties and challenges such as insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, many hidden risks, blockages in the domestic cycle, and interference in the international cycle still exist, achieving the expected goals requires focused policies and proactive policies. Enterprising. Macroeconomic policy: Fiscal policy will be moderately strengthened to improve quality and efficiency, and monetary policy will be flexible, moderate, precise and effective, consistent with the statement of the Central Economic Work Conference. The structural feature worthy of attention is that in terms of fiscal policy, the central government has stepped up its efforts. Beginning this year, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years specifically for the implementation of major national strategies and the construction of security capabilities in key areas. The policy direction of the central government to increase leverage is sustainable. Focusing on 2024, the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, combined with the additional trillions of treasury bonds issued in October last year, has gradually formed a physical workload, which is expected to support infrastructure construction. In terms of monetary policy, structural adjustment focuses on improving efficiency. Faced with the phenomenon of \"idle funds\" in the financial system, the \"Report\" clearly points out the need to unblock the monetary policy transmission mechanism. At the same time, the quality of credit extension must be improved, focusing on the development of \"five major articles\". In addition, expected targets such as urban surveyed unemployment rate, CPI growth, and residents\\' income are consistent with the 2023 government work report; while the targets for new urban employment and energy consumption are more aggressive than in 2023. (2) Industrial policy: high-quality development, overall planning and coordination, and deployment around the main line of high-quality development. The key task arrangements in this year\\'s \"Report\" basically continue the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference, reflecting the continuity of policies. High-quality development is still the main line of work in various fields. This is mainly because the slowdown in economic growth in recent years reflects the inherent problem of declining capital output efficiency. Guiding structural upgrades in various fields is expected to inject new impetus into economic growth. From a horizontal perspective, policies in different fields have strong co-ordination. 1) Cultivate and strengthen new consumption and modern industrial system construction: The \"Report\" points out that it is necessary to \"implement digital consumption, green consumption, and healthy consumption promotion policies.\" The development of these new consumptions is inseparable from the high-end, intelligent, and green traditional industries. Transformation and upgrading; new growth points such as smart homes, entertainment and tourism, sports events, domestic \"trendy products\", and bulk consumption such as intelligent connected new energy vehicles and electronic products all need to rely on the deep integration of modern service industries and advanced manufacturing , in line with the integration trend of modern industrial system construction. 2) The strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education and new productive forces: The core essence of the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education is the coordinated advancement of education, science and technology, and talent. It is inseparable from the innovation-driven development strategy and is the development engine of new productive forces. 3) Expand effective investment and integrated urban and rural development: Government investment should focus on supporting new infrastructure and encourage private capital to participate in the construction of major projects, which is closely related to urban renewal actions and county economies under new urbanization. Looking at it specifically, the details are rich, which helps the policy to be implemented accurately. Compared with the Central Economic Work Conference, the \"Report\" has refined and enriched the deployment of industrial policies in many fields. We will analyze the main fields below.', 'authorid': UUID('bad6aac6-927c-57b9-ae24-cb894945890f'), 'sentimentScore': 0.3965745707973838, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '77GO0J96RNPJ51TGBOKB351Q4JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:42:09 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '77GO0J96RNPJ51TGBOKB351Q4JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6a27a46e-0c75-5c3b-bc14-e735ed8a7d23'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\" - Deepening Reform: Focus on Four Key Areas and Enhance Endogenous Motivation for Development', 'author': 'Cheng Weibo , Dai Xiaodi', 'orgName': '招商银行股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BCjbTADAPshi7TBmuq1OB5g=', 'researcher': '程伟波,戴筱頔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000295634', '11000380344'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BCjbTADAPshi7TBmuq1OB5g=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209325_1.pdf?1710170586000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209325_1.pdf?1710170586000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\" - Deepening Reform: Focus on Four Key Areas and Enhance Endogenous Motivation for Development', 'originalAuthor': '程伟波,戴筱頔', 'originalContent': '2024年政府工作报告把“坚定不移深化改革,增强发展内生动力”作为第四大任务，推进重点领域和关键环节改革攻坚，处理好政府与市场的关系。“深化改革”将成为2024年政府工作的关键词之一。一、深化改革成为《报告》突出亮点秉承前期会议1精神，本次政府工作报告高度强调“深化改革”，旨在增强发展的内生动能，全面深化改革将是全年的重要任务。与上年政府工作任务相比，一是单独成节，重要性进一步提升。在2023年政府工作报告中，改革相关内容则是散落于“切实落实‘两个毫不动摇’”、“有效防范化解重大经济金融风险”、“保障基本民生和发展社会事业”等章节。二是阐述更为全面，系统性要求更高。上年的改革部署集中在细分领域，今年则是更体系化地从参与主体、机制体制、重点领域等维度进行工作部署。二、总体基调：稳中求进，突出重大关系统筹协调总体基调稳中求进、较为积极，预计更大力度、更深层次的改革将会到来。从目标导向上来看，聚焦对内改革、重点领域和关键环节,最终目标是“推动构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制”。从改革理念来看，协调好改革中的重大关系贯穿始终，一是处理好政府与市场的关系。习近平总书记指出，经济体制改革的核心问题是“处理好政府和市场关系”，《报告》在“政策取向”和“深化改革”中也强调要“促进有效市场和有为政府更好结合”，让市场在资源配置中发挥“决定性作用”，同时“更好发挥政府作用”。二是处理好央地关系、地区间等关系，主要在深化财税体制改革、构建全国统一的大市场等任务中有所映射，如前者重点之一是优化中央地方事权财权匹配机制，后者核心是打破地区封锁、部门分割。三、2024年重点领域第一，国资国企改革仍为重点。2024年是新一轮国有企业改革深化提升行动的攻坚之年，需要完成重点任务的70%以上。本次政府工作报告围绕国资国企改革做了四方面的部署，较上年更为详实，一是“完善中国特色现代企业制度”。二是“打造更多世界一流企业”，这主要是央企的改革任务。三是“增强核心功能、提高核心竞争力”，较上年增加“核心功能”，以服务国家战略为导向的功能性改革是重点。国资国企要在科技创新、产业控制和安全支撑上发挥关键作用。结合前期相关政策，现代化产业体系建设、科技创新等是核心点，具体措施包括培育战新产业和未来产业、促进产业链供应链融通、打造创新联合体、产业和科创投资、强化能源资源安全保障等。四是“优化国有经济布局”，这并非新提法，但过往关于如何优化、往哪优化较为模糊。《报告》首次提出要“建立国有经济布局优化和结构调整指引制度”，将会进一步厘清改革重点，有助于国央企优化布局有章可循、考核有据可依，建议重点关注。同时还需关注国资国企改革与财税体制改革的结合。2023年11月中央全面深化改革委员会第三次会议上审议通过《关于进一步完善国有资本经营预算制度的意见》。国有资本经营预算制度改革作为新一轮财税体制改革的先行军，核心内容是完善收益上交机制，提升预算支出效能。改革的落实，或将有利于进一步厘清政府和国企间的经济利益分配关系，有利于做大国有资本经营预算蛋糕、提升对财政的贡献，有利于优化支出、推进国企聚焦重要行业和关键领域。第二，进一步促进多种所有制经济共同发展。《报告》强调，“国有企业、民营企业、外资企业都是现代化建设的重要力量”，传递了更强的积极信号，旨在以改革激发各类经济主体动力活力，增强市场信心。民营经��领域在上年工作报告中，也是重点。2023年7月国务院出台了《中共中央国务院关于促进民营经济发展壮大的意见》2，提出31条重点工作。今年重点是细化和落实，将在市场准入、要素获取、公平执法、权益保护等方面加大改革，在促进民企融资、帮扶个体工商户、降低物流成本、防范化解拖欠企业账款等方面开展行动，营商环境有望进一步改善。外资经济领域的改革较上年更为突出，相关表述集中在第五大重点任务（扩大高水平开放）3中，着力点在于破除市场壁垒、优化营商环境、深化对外开放重点领域体制机制改革，从而增强我国对外商投资的吸引力，提高利用外资质量。第三，全国统一大市场建设或将提速。2022年《中共中央国务院关于加快建设全国统一大市场的意见》发布，旨在畅通国内大循环，但在实际推进中困难较多、进度较缓。上年工作报告中未做重点部署，此次重提，体现了中央破除各种障碍、加快建设全国统一大市场的决心。结合前期会议精神，预计今年有三大改革重点：一是推进破除各种形式的地方保护、市场分割、招商引资不当竞争等，如近年来，地方政府出现的招商引资竞争变形走样、过度“内卷”现象。针对以上突出问题，《报告》提出要开展专项行动，或将对区域间的竞合关系产生一定影响。二是深化要素市场化配置综合改革试点，建议重点关注土地要素、数据要素、创新要素、物流体系等方面的改革进展。以土地要素为例，预计土地要素跨区域再配置、建设用地和补充耕地指标交易市场建设将是探索重点。2月19日召开的中央全面深化改革委员会第四次会议强调，要“建立同宏观制度、区域发展更加高效衔接的土地管理制度”，“增强土地要素对优势地区高质量发展保障能力”。随着相关工作的有序推进，或将缓解当前发达地区建设用地指标欠缺的难题，有助于各地形成优势互补、区域协调发展的新格局。三是加强监管，如加强对招投标市场的规范和管理,维护公平竞争的市场秩序。第四，谋划落实财税、金融等重点领域改革。金融领域改革进度相对更快。2023年已明确金融监管体制改革等的顶层设计，并基本完成中央层面大的机构改革方案，2024年重点是加速“落实”。“新一轮财税体制改革”4则以“谋划”为主，整体方案尚待出台。在地方财政收入增长乏力、财政支出压力较大的背景下，如何厘清政府和市场关系，界定政府职责边界，如何理顺央地政府财政关系，有望成为重点方向。此外，报告提及“加大对高质量发展的财税金融支持”，预计相关资源将会进一步往高质量发展领域倾斜；首次提出“建设高水平社会主义市场经济体制改革先行区”，党的二十大报告将“构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制”作为加快构建新发展格局、着力推动高质量发展的重要战略任务，先行区的建设将为深化相关领域改革积累经验。“先行区”究竟花落何处值得关注。', 'content': '2024年政府工作报告把“坚定不移深化改革,增强发展内生动力”作为第四大任务，推进重点领域和关键环节改革攻坚，处理好政府与市场的关系。“深化改革”将成为2024年政府工作的关键词之一。一、深化改革成为《报告》突出亮点秉承前期会议1精神，本次政府工作报告高度强调“深化改革”，旨在增强发展的内生动能，全面深化改革将是全年的重要任务。与上年政府工作任务相比，一是单独成节，重要性进一步提升。在2023年政府工作报告中，改革相关内容则是散落于“切实落实‘两个毫不动摇’”、“有效防范化解重大经济金融风险”、“保障基本民生和发展社会事业”等章节。二是阐述更为全面，系统性要求更高。上年的改革部署集中在细分领域，今年则是更体系化地从参与主体、机制体制、重点领域等维度进行工作部署。二、总体基调：稳中求进，突出重大关系统筹协调总体基调稳中求进、较为积极，预计更大力度、更深层次的改革将会到来。从目标导向上来看，聚焦对内改革、重点领域和关键环节,最终目标是“推动构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制”。从改革理念来看，协调好改革中的重大关系贯穿始终，一是处理好政府与市场的关系。习近平总书记指出，经济体制改革的核心问题是“处理好政府和市场关系”，《报告》在“政策取向”和“深化改革”中也强调要“促进有效市场和有为政府更好结合”，让市场在资源配置中发挥“决定性作用”，同时“更好发挥政府作用”。二是处理好央地关系、地区��等关系，主要在深化财税体制改革、构建全国统一的大市场等任务中有所映射，如前者重点之一是优化中央地方事权财权匹配机制，后者核心是打破地区封锁、部门分割。三、2024年重点领域第一，国资国企改革仍为重点。2024年是新一轮国有企业改革深化提升行动的攻坚之年，需要完成重点任务的70%以上。本次政府工作报告围绕国资国企改革做了四方面的部署，较上年更为详实，一是“完善中国特色现代企业制度”。二是“打造更多世界一流企业”，这主要是央企的改革任务。三是“增强核心功能、提高核心竞争力”，较上年增加“核心功能”，以服务国家战略为导向的功能性改革是重点。国资国企要在科技创新、产业控制和安全支撑上发挥关键作用。结合前期相关政策，现代化产业体系建设、科技创新等是核心点，具体措施包括培育战新产业和未来产业、促进产业链供应链融通、打造创新联合体、产业和科创投资、强化能源资源安全保障等。四是“优化国有经济布局”，这并非新提法，但过往关于如何优化、往哪优化较为模糊。《报告》首次提出要“建立国有经济布局优化和结构调整指引制度”，将会进一步厘清改革重点，有助于国央企优化布局有章可循、考核有据可依，建议重点关注。同时还需关注国资国企改革与财税体制改革的结合。2023年11月中央全面深化改革委员会第三次会议上审议通过《关于进一步完善国有资本经营预算制度的意见》。国有资本经营预算制度改革作为新一轮财税体制改革的先行军，核心内容是完善收益上交机制，提升预算支出效能。改革的落实，或将有利于进一步厘清政府和国企间的经济利益分配关系，有利于做大国有资本经营预算蛋糕、提升对财政的贡献，有利于优化支出、推进国企聚焦重要行业和关键领域。第二，进一步促进多种所有制经济共同发展。《报告》强调，“国有企业、民营企业、外资企业都是现代化建设的重要力量”，传递了更强的积极信号，旨在以改革激发各类经济主体动力活力，增强市场信心。民营经济领域在上年工作报告中，也是重点。2023年7月国务院出台了《中共中央国务院关于促进民营经济发展壮大的意见》2，提出31条重点工作。今年重点是细化和落实，将在市场准入、要素获取、公平执法、权益保护等方面加大改革，在促进民企融资、帮扶个体工商户、降低物流成本、防范化解拖欠企业账款等方面开展行动，营商环境有望进一步改善。外资经济领域的改革较上年更为突出，相关表述集中在第五大重点任务（扩大高水平开放）3中，着力点在于破除市场壁垒、优化营商环境、深化对外开放重点领域体制机制改革，从而增强我国对外商投资的吸引力，提高利用外资质量。第三，全国统一大市场建设或将提速。2022年《中共中央国务院关于加快建设全国统一大市场的意见》发布，旨在畅通国内大循环，但在实际推进中困难较多、进度较缓。上年工作报告中未做重点部署，此次重提，体现了中央破除各种障碍、加快建设全国统一大市场的决心。结合前期会议精神，预计今年有三大改革重点：一是推进破除各种形式的地方保护、市场分割、招商引资不当竞争等，如近年来，地方政府出现的招商引资竞争变形走样、过度“内卷”现象。针对以上突出问题，《报告》提出要开展专项行动，或将对区域间的竞合关系产生一定影响。二是深化要素市场化配置综合改革试点，建议重点关注土地要素、数据要素、创新要素、物流体系等方面的改革进展。以土地要素为例，预计土地要素跨区域再配置、建设用地和补充耕地指标交易市场建设将是探索重点。2月19日召开的中央全面深化改革委员会第四次会议强调，要“建立同宏观制度、区域发展更加高效衔接的土地管理制度”，“增强土地要素对优势地区高质量发展保障能力”。随着相关工作的有序推进，或将缓解当前发达地区建设用地指标欠缺的难题，有助于各地形成优势互补、区域协调发展的新格局。三是加强监管，如加强对招投标市场的规范和管理,维护公平竞争的市场秩序。第四，谋划落实财税、金融等重点领域改革。金融领域改革进度相对更快。2023年已明确金融监管体制改革等的顶层设计，并基本完成中央层面大的机构改革方案，2024年重点是加速“落实”。“新一轮财税体制改革”4则以“谋划”为主，整体方案尚待出台。在地方财政收入增长乏力、财政支出压力较大的背景下，如何厘清政府和市场关系，界定政府职责边界，如何理顺央地政府财政关系，有望成为重点方向。此外，报告提及“加大对高质量发展的财税金融支持”，预计相关资源将会进一步往高质量发展领域倾斜；首次提出“建设高水平社会主义市场经济体制改革先行区”，党的二十大报告将“构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制”作为加快构建新发展格局、着力推动高质量发展的重要战略任务，先行区的建设将为深化相关领域改革积累经验。“先行区”究竟花落何处值得关注。', 'authorid': UUID('180d1b37-2a7b-577a-958b-e5106086150f'), 'sentimentScore': 0.07921616360545158, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'N8VTA4I27IATMVE5OSFDA6M5KBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:42:14 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'N8VTA4I27IATMVE5OSFDA6M5KBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7d318acf-8363-548f-a4d6-89f82d8288b6'), 'title': 'Capital Market Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Opportunities for A-shares lie in \"new productivity\", with fixed income and exchange rate stability as the main focus', 'author': 'Liu Dongliang, Bai Yuhan, Su Chang, Chen Qiao, Zhao Yu', 'orgName': '招商银行股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BKQT7ZozBJvE8F6TgOWySz0=', 'researcher': '刘东亮,柏禹含,苏畅,陈峤,赵宇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177869', '11000297834', '11000369721', '11000316145', '11000393768'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BKQT7ZozBJvE8F6TgOWySz0=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209323_1.pdf?1710168745000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209323_1.pdf?1710168745000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Capital Market Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Opportunities for A-shares lie in \"new productivity\", with fixed income and exchange rate stability as the main focus', 'originalAuthor': '刘东亮,柏禹含,苏畅,陈峤,赵宇', 'originalContent': '《政府工作报告》（以下简称《报告》）中的经济增长目标（5%左右）、财政政策（适度加力、提质增效，3%赤字率+1万亿特别国债+3.9万亿专项债）和货币政策（灵活适度、精准有效）的定调，显示宏观政策以稳为主，不会搞强刺激，基本符合此前资本市场的预期，而房地产、地方化债等领域政策亦未见超预期内容。但“新质生产力”成为今年政府工作任务之首，一方面这有利于推动中国经济继续向高质量发展转型，另一方面这也将对资本市场特别是A股的结构性机会产生一定影响。《报告》对资本市场着墨不多，“增强资本市场内在稳定性”是较为突出的提法。3月5日上午议程结束后，境内股债汇市场未见大的波动，各资产表现以稳为主。截至下午收盘，10年期国债利率下行3bp，人民币汇率维持在7.199，上证指数上涨0.28%，沪深300上涨0.7%。一、固收市场：债券利率位于历史低位，关注产品净值波动的可能《报告》对经济增长5%左右的定调，显示经济增长未超市场预期，这有利于债券利率延续当前震荡下行的趋势。但是考虑到债券利率已处在历史低位，在缺少更多利好刺激的背景下，长期国债利率下行空间有所收窄，短期大概率以低位震荡为主。需要提示的是，前期超长期限国债利率下行偏多，30年期国债利率已在2.5%（1年期MLF利率）附近，超长期国债交易略显拥挤，短期或有小幅调整的风险。相比之下，短债性价比更高一些，从防御角度来看，如遇调整，短债利率调整幅度有限。从盈利角度来看，资金利率或有一定的下行空间，短债也有望受益。基于上述判断，固收产品净值的波动可能会略有加大，短债类产品风险收益比或更优，中长债理财或债基的净值或进入波动平台期，建议继续持有，等待下一轮债市上涨。固收增强产品建议关注固收+红利策略。二、外汇市场：人民币汇率将以双向波动为主《报告》中“增强资本市场内在稳定性”和“保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定”的表述，确认了稳汇率政策将延续。从2023年下半年开始，汇率主管层面持续推出稳汇率措施，例如强化逆周期调节因子、发行境外央票、下调金融机构外汇存款准备金率、上调跨境融资宏观审慎调节参数等，这些措施使得人民币整体走势已经相��稳定，市场预期也有所改善。不过，中美利差对汇率所带来的压力仍需关注。尽管美联储大概率今年会启动降息，中美利差深度倒挂的局面将有所改善，但考虑到美国经济的韧性以及美国通胀的粘性，其货币政策转向的节奏将会较慢。同时，国内货币政策宽松预期暂难改变，国内利率水平可能进一步下行。这意味着，中美利差年内对人民币仍会构成一定压力。但在稳汇率调控政策的支持下，人民币的走势预计会相对稳定，双向波动将是基准情形。三、A股市场：增强资本市场内在稳定性已上升到国家政策层面，结构性机会在科技和高股息《报告》强调要“增强资本市场内在稳定性”，这意味着A股不仅要规模扩张，更要提质增效、行稳致远，这是资本市场总体发展思路的转变。增强资本市场内在稳定性，需要市场的高质量发展，健全的基础制度，以及参与主体的理性成熟。根据此前国常会的表述，具体措施包括：健全完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡，大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度，以及加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，打造规范透明的市场环境。预计上述措施，将减小A股市场波动，提高A股的长期回报水平，对于投资者而言，这既是挑战，更是机遇。中期来看，A股估值位于历史低位，股票供求关系有所改善，内外宏观政策趋于宽松，无风险利率持续下行，名义经济增速二季度将有所扩张，大盘一季度筑底后二季度或迎来改观。结构上，《报告》将现代化产业体系与新质生产力、科教兴国放在了重点工作的前两位，科技板块的重要性更加凸显。结合增强资本市场内在稳定性，政策主线对应到股票市场投资的两大配置方向：科技和高股息。科技行业是具备长期产业政策支持的成长性行业，且政策支持力度不断加大。从上市公司质量、价值实现以及稳定投资回报的角度来说，高股息方向具备长期投资价值。配置上，高股息和科技这两大方向可均衡配置，以应对市场轮动的不确定性。', 'content': 'The \"Government Work Report\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Report\") contains the economic growth target (around 5%), fiscal policy (appropriate strengthening, quality improvement and efficiency improvement, 3% deficit rate + 1 trillion special national debt + 3.9 trillion special projects Debt) and monetary policy (flexible, appropriate, precise and effective) show that the macro policy focuses on stability and will not engage in strong stimulus, which is basically in line with the previous expectations of the capital market, while policies in real estate, localized debt and other fields have also not changed. Content beyond expectations. However, \"new quality productivity\" has become the top government task this year. On the one hand, this will help promote the continued transformation of China\\'s economy to high-quality development. On the other hand, it will also have a certain impact on the structural opportunities of the capital market, especially A-shares. The \"Report\" does not mention much about the capital market, and \"enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market\" is a more prominent formulation. After the agenda ended on the morning of March 5, there were no major fluctuations in the domestic stock, bond and foreign exchange markets, and the performance of various assets was mainly stable. As of the afternoon close, the 10-year government bond interest rate had dropped by 3bp, the RMB exchange rate remained at 7.199, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.28%, and the CSI 300 rose by 0.7%. 1. Fixed-income market: Bond interest rates are at historically low levels, and attention should be paid to the possibility of fluctuations in the net value of products. The \"Report\" sets the tone for economic growth of about 5%, showing that economic growth has not exceeded market expectations, which is conducive to the continuation of the current downward trend in bond interest rates. . However, considering that bond interest rates are already at historically low levels, and in the absence of more positive stimulus, the downside space for long-term government bond interest rates has narrowed, and there is a high probability that short-term fluctuations will mainly occur at low levels. It should be noted that the interest rate of ultra-long-term government bonds has fallen too much in the early stage. The interest rate of 30-year government bonds is already around 2.5% (the 1-year MLF interest rate). The trading of ultra-long-term government bonds is slightly crowded, and there may be a risk of slight adjustment in the short term. In comparison, short-term bonds are more cost-effective. From a defensive perspective, in the event of an adjustment, the interest rate adjustment range of short-term bonds is limited. From a profit perspective, funding rates may have some room for decline, and short-term bonds are also expected to benefit. Based on the above judgment, the fluctuation of the net value of fixed-income products may increase slightly, the risk-return ratio of short-term debt products may be better, and the net value of medium- and long-term debt financial management or debt funds may enter a fluctuation plateau period. It is recommended to continue to hold and wait for the next step. A bond market rally. For fixed income enhanced products, it is recommended to pay attention to the fixed income + dividend strategy. 2. Foreign exchange market: The RMB exchange rate will mainly fluctuate in both directions. The statements in the \"Report\" about \"enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market\" and \"maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level\" confirm that the policy of stabilizing the exchange rate will continue. Starting from the second half of 2023, the exchange rate authorities will continue to introduce measures to stabilize the exchange rate, such as strengthening countercyclical adjustment factors, issuing overseas central bank bills, lowering the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, and raising macro-prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing. These measures have made The overall trend of the RMB has been relatively stable, and market expectations have also improved. However, the pressure on the exchange rate caused by the interest rate gap between China and the United States still needs attention. Although the Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates this year and the deep inversion of interest rates between China and the United States will improve, its monetary policy shift will be slower given the resilience of the U.S. economy and the stickiness of U.S. inflation. At the same time, domestic monetary policy easing expectations are difficult to change for the time being, and domestic interest rates may fall further. This means that the interest rate gap between China and the United States will still put certain pressure on the RMB during the year. However, with the support of stable exchange rate control policies, the trend of the RMB is expected to be relatively stable, and two-way fluctuations will be the baseline scenario. 3. A-share market: Enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market has risen to the level of national policy. Structural opportunities lie in technology and high dividends. The \"Report\" emphasizes the need to \"enhance the inherent stability of the capital market\", which means that A-shares must not only expand in scale. , it is also necessary to improve quality and efficiency, and achieve stable and long-term development. This is a change in the overall development thinking of the capital market. Enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market requires high-quality development of the market, sound basic systems, and rational maturity of participating entities. According to the previous statement of the National Standing Committee, specific measures include: improving the basic system of the capital market, paying more attention to the dynamic balance of investment and financing, vigorously improving the quality and investment value of listed companies, increasing the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, and strengthening capital market supervision, and cracking down on illegal activities. There will be \"zero tolerance\" for violations and create a standardized and transparent market environment. It is expected that the above measures will reduce the volatility of the A-share market and improve the long-term return level of A-shares. For investors, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. In the medium term, A-share valuations are at historically low levels, stock supply and demand have improved, internal and external macroeconomic policies have become looser, risk-free interest rates continue to decline, nominal economic growth will expand in the second quarter, and the market will bottom in the second quarter. The quarter may see a change. Structurally, the \"Report\" places the modern industrial system, new productive forces, and rejuvenating the country through science and education as the top two priorities, and the importance of the science and technology sector is even more prominent. Combined with enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market, the main policy lines correspond to the two major allocation directions of stock market investment: technology and high dividends. The technology industry is a growth industry with long-term industrial policy support, and policy support is constantly increasing. From the perspective of the quality of listed companies, value realization and stable investment returns, high dividends have long-term investment value. In terms of allocation, the two major directions of high dividends and technology can be allocated in a balanced manner to cope with the uncertainty of market rotation.', 'authorid': UUID('91d757e6-c665-5019-8337-bbd867ab1b61'), 'sentimentScore': 0.2373222801834345, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'F0A6DIN2EA9N8SPQU0AQ3LGJ33VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:42:17 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'F0A6DIN2EA9N8SPQU0AQ3LGJ33VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2445fce0-ab82-535b-a95b-8dccccbc0ae7'), 'title': 'Regional Economy Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": New urbanization emphasizes people-centeredness, and regional development emphasizes comparative advantages.', 'author': 'Cheng Weibo, Li Weilin, Liu Jiangwei', 'orgName': '招商银行', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BJ5tKgoR8P2yqQHVD76+FBY=', 'researcher': '程伟波,李蔚林,刘江伟', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000295634', '11000410033', '11000460133'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BJ5tKgoR8P2yqQHVD76+FBY=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209318_1.pdf?1710169625000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209318_1.pdf?1710169625000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Regional Economy Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": New urbanization emphasizes people-centeredness, and regional development emphasizes comparative advantages.', 'originalAuthor': '程伟波,李蔚林,刘江伟', 'originalContent': '与往年相比，2024年《政府工作报告》（以下简称《报告》）将“城乡融合与区域协调发展”单列，成为与“扩大国内需求”并列的部分。这种论述方式与党的二十大工作报告以及中央经济工作会议是一致的。《报告》将新型城镇化与区域协调发展置于“优化经济布局”的视角下展开，其政策更具体系性，较往年增加了更多的具体工作部署。新型城镇化建设战略行动继续深入实施，突出以人为本的新型城镇化建设有关举措，户籍制度改革或将为其注入政策动力。区域协调发展强调发挥各地区比较优势，经济发展优势地区要发挥高质量发展动力源的作用，战略腹地建设或为中西部区域发展带来新机遇；雄安新区进入新发展阶段以及优化主体功能区规划也是本部分的重要关注点。一、新型城镇化建设举措突出以人为本《报告》指出，“我国城镇化还有很大发展提升空间，要促进各类要素双向流动，形成城乡融合发展新格局”。这明确了新型城镇化建设还具有发展空间，要继续推动城乡融合发展新格局的进程。今年在城镇化建设部分没有涉及房地产相关内容，在既有新型城镇化战略行动基础上，更加突出了“以人为本”的各项举措；政策方面把加快农业转移人口市民化摆在突出位置，重点部署了“户籍制度改革”。一是继续深入实施新型城镇化战略行动。《报告》体现了新型城镇化战略行动的政策延续性，继续将县城作为新型城镇化建设的重要载体；继续注重以城市群、都市圈为依托促进大中小城市协调发展；继续将成渝地区双城经济圈建设作为新型城镇化建设的区域重点；继续稳步实施城市更新行动,并强调“推进‘平急两用’公共基础设施建设和城中村改造”。二是将人为本的新型城镇化建设举措进一步做实。在城镇化建设中关注“以人为本”并不是新的政策提法，但在本年度政府工作报告进行了着重强调，明确“新型城镇化要处处体现以人为本”。去年底召开的国务院常务会议曾研究了深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化有关举措，《报告》在此方面做了更加具体的部署，明确要“加快完善地下管网,推动解决老旧小区加装电梯、停车等难题”。三是通过户籍制度改革加快农业转移人口市民化。《报告》指出要“把加快农业转移人口市民化摆在突出位置”，户籍制度改革或成为加速这一进程的关键。通过“完善‘人地钱’挂钩政策,让有意愿的进城农民工在城镇落户,推动未落户常住人口平等享受城镇基本公共服务”。户籍制度改革或将释放一波政策红利，为新型城镇化建设找到新的突破，为扩大内需提供新的支撑点。二、区域协调发展强调发挥各地区比较优势《报告》在“提高区域协调发展水平”部分延续了国民经济“十四五”规划及往年政府工作报告对区域重大战略、区域协调发展战略、特殊类型地区的政策论述，指出“充分发挥各地区���较优势,按照主体功能定位,积极融入和服务构建新发展格局”。较往年，区域协调发展主要有以下五方面变化。一是强调发挥各地区的比较优势。“发挥各地区比较优势”是国民经济“十四五”规划在“优化国土空间开发保护格局”部分既有的政策部署，但在近年的政府工作报告中均未提及。今年《报告》明确要“充分发挥各地区比较优势”，而往年出提及较多的“区域发展平衡性”则没有出现，体现了当前经济环境下新的区域发展导向。二是强调发挥经济发展优势地区的作用。《报告》强调“支持京津冀、长三角、粤港澳大湾区等经济发展优势地区更好发挥高质量发展动力源作用”。国民经济“十四五”规划对“开拓高质量发展的重要动力源”有过论述，指出要“以中心城市和城市群等经济发展优势区域为重点，增强经济和人口承载能力，带动全国经济效率整体提升”。《报告》提及此内容，说明中央今年对经济发展优势地区在发展中的作用进行了重点的部署，这与中央经济工作会议强调“经济大省要真正挑起大梁,为稳定全国经济作出更大贡献”是一致的。三是布局国家战略腹地建设。区域协调发展部分的另外一个关注点是对“加强国家战略腹地建设”的部署。《报告》将“加强国家战略腹地建设”作为新时代重大生产力布局优化的战略举措。这或将成为中西部区域发展的新机遇。如该政策推动有力，涉及生产力布局的重大项目与政策或将惠及中西部区域，成为加速中西部区域发展的新引擎。四是对雄安新区建设提出更高更具体的要求。以往政府工作报告对雄安新区的描述为“高标准高质量建设”，本次《报告》提出了更加具体的要求，要“抓好标志性项目在雄安新区落地建设”。自2017年4月1日雄安新区设立以来，其现代化城市建设雏形初显。2023年5月，习近平总书记在调研时强调，雄安新区已进入大规模建设与承接北京非首都功能疏解并重阶段。雄安新区在我国经济版图中扮演的角色将更加清晰、更加具体。五是优化主体功能区规划或将提上日程。主体功能区规划对于我国空间发展统筹协调、保障国家重大发展战略落地意义重大。党的二十大报告指出，“要健全主体功能区制度，优化国土空间发展格局”。《报告》明确了要“制定主体功能区优化实施规划”。这与中央全面深化改革委员会第四次会议所强调的“要统筹好区域经济布局和国土空间利用，立足各地功能定位和资源禀赋，细化土地管理政策单元，提高资源开发利用水平，更好发挥优势地区示范引领作用”的政策安排是相呼应的。优化主体功能区规划的工作或已正式提上相关部委的日程。三、2024年区域经济展望各省2024年增长目标更加审慎务实，将支撑全国5%左右的增长目标达成。31个省份的政府工作报告增长目标集中在5%-6%的区间，仅海南（8.5%左右）、西藏（8.5%左右）、新疆（6.5%左右）和天津（4.5%左右）例外，总体上仍呈现中西部增长目标领先的特征。16个省份增长目标较2023年有所下调，仅北京、天津、吉林、浙江四个省份上调，反映出各省政府经济发展更加审慎务实的取向。31个省份的加权（权重为2023年GDP）目标增速为5.4%，将对全国经济增长目标的达成形成支撑。经济大省体现“真正挑起大梁”的担当。在超过半数省份下调增长目标的背景下，粤苏鲁浙川豫6个经济大省中仅河南下调目标，浙江更是逆势将增长目标上调0.5个百分点，体现出经济大省对中央经济工作会议“经济大省要真正挑起大梁，为稳定全国经济做出更大贡献”精神的积极响应。6省2023年GDP合计占全国的44%，2024年加权目标增速为5.2%，将在稳定全国经济、支撑5%左右的增长目标达成中发挥关键作用。', 'content': '与往年相比，2024年《政府工作报告》（以下简称《报告》）将“城乡融合与区域协调发展”单列，成为与“扩大国内需求”并列的部分。这种论述方式与党的二十大工作报告以及中央经济工作会议是一致的。《报告》将新型城镇化与区域协调发展置于“优化经济布局”的视角下展开，其政策更具体系性，较往年增加了更多的具体工作部署。新型城镇化建设战略行动继续深入实施，突出以人为本的新型城镇化建设有关举措，户籍制度改革或将为其注入政策动力。区域协调发展强调发挥各地区比较优势，经济发展优势地区要发挥高质量发展动力源的作用，战略腹地建设或为中西部区域发展带来新机遇；雄安新区进入新发展阶段以及优化主体功能区规划也是本部分的重���关注点。一、新型城镇化建设举措突出以人为本《报告》指出，“我国城镇化还有很大发展提升空间，要促进各类要素双向流动，形成城乡融合发展新格局”。这明确了新型城镇化建设还具有发展空间，要继续推动城乡融合发展新格局的进程。今年在城镇化建设部分没有涉及房地产相关内容，在既有新型城镇化战略行动基础上，更加突出了“以人为本”的各项举措；政策方面把加快农业转移人口市民化摆在突出位置，重点部署了“户籍制度改革”。一是继续深入实施新型城镇化战略行动。《报告》体现了新型城镇化战略行动的政策延续性，继续将县城作为新型城镇化建设的重要载体；继续注重以城市群、都市圈为依托促进大中小城市协调发展；继续将成渝地区双城经济圈建设作为新型城镇化建设的区域重点；继续稳步实施城市更新行动,并强调“推进‘平急两用’公共基础设施建设和城中村改造”。二是将人为本的新型城镇化建设举措进一步做实。在城镇化建设中关注“以人为本”并不是新的政策提法，但在本年度政府工作报告进行了着重强调，明确“新型城镇化要处处体现以人为本”。去年底召开的国务院常务会议曾研究了深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化有关举措，《报告》在此方面做了更加具体的部署，明确要“加快完善地下管网,推动解决老旧小区加装电梯、停车等难题”。三是通过户籍制度改革加快农业转移人口市民化。《报告》指出要“把加快农业转移人口市民化摆在突出位置”，户籍制度改革或成为加速这一进程的关键。通过“完善‘人地钱’挂钩政策,让有意愿的进城农民工在城镇落户,推动未落户常住人口平等享受城镇基本公共服务”。户籍制度改革或将释放一波政策红利，为新型城镇化建设找到新的突破，为扩大内需提供新的支撑点。二、区域协调发展强调发挥各地区比较优势《报告》在“提高区域协调发展水平”部分延续了国民经济“十四五”规划及往年政府工作报告对区域重大战略、区域协调发展战略、特殊类型地区的政策论述，指出“充分发挥各地区比较优势,按照主体功能定位,积极融入和服务构建新发展格局”。较往年，区域协调发展主要有以下五方面变化。一是强调发挥各地区的比较优势。“发挥各地区比较优势”是国民经济“十四五”规划在“优化国土空间开发保护格局”部分既有的政策部署，但在近年的政府工作报告中均未提及。今年《报告》明确要“充分发挥各地区比较优势”，而往年出提及较多的“区域发展平衡性”则没有出现，体现了当前经济环境下新的区域发展导向。二是强调发挥经济发展优势地区的作用。《报告》强调“支持京津冀、长三角、粤港澳大湾区等经济发展优势地区更好发挥高质量发展动力源作用”。国民经济“十四五”规划对“开拓高质量发展的重要动力源”有过论述，指出要“以中心城市和城市群等经济发展优势区域为重点，增强经济和人口承载能力，带动全国经济效率整体提升”。《报告》提及此内容，说明中央今年对经济发展优势地区在发展中的作用进行了重点的部署，这与中央经济工作会议强调“经济大省要真正挑起大梁,为稳定全国经济作出更大贡献”是一致的。三是布局国家战略腹地建设。区域协调发展部分的另外一个关注点是对“加强国家战略腹地建设”的部署。《报告》将“加强国家战略腹地建设”作为新时代重大生产力布局优化的战略举措。这或将成为中西部区域发展的新机遇。如该政策推动有力，涉及生产力布局的重大项目与政策或将惠及中西部区域，成为加速中西部区域发展的新引擎。四是对雄安新区建设提出更高更具体的要求。以往政府工作报告对雄安新区的描述为“高标准高质量建设”，本次《报告》提出了更加具体的要求，要“抓好标志性项目在雄安新区落地建设”。自2017年4月1日雄安新区设立以来，其现代化城市建设雏形初显。2023年5月，习近平总书记在调研时强调，雄安新区已进入大规模建设与承接北京非首都功能疏解并重阶段。雄安新区在我国经济版图中扮演的角色将更加清晰、更加具体。五是优化主体功能区规划或将提上日程。主体功能区规划对于我国空间发展统筹协调、保障国家重大发展战略落地意义重大。党的二十大报告指出，“要健全主体功能区制度，优化国土空间发展格局”。《报告》明确了要“制定主体功能区优化实施规划”。这与中央全面深化改革委员会第四次会议所强调的“要统筹好区域经济布局和国土空间利用，立足各地功能定位和资源禀赋，细化土地管理政策单元，提高资源开发利用水平，更好发挥优势地区示范引领作用”的政策安排是相呼应的。优化主体功能区规划的工作或已正式提上相关部委的日程。三、2024年区域经济展望各省2024年增长目标更加审慎务实，将支撑全国5%左右的增长目标达成。31个省份的政府工作报告增长目标集中在5%-6%的区间，仅海南（8.5%左右）、西藏（8.5%左右）、新疆（6.5%左右）和天津（4.5%左右）例外，总体上仍呈现中西部增长目标领先的特征。16个省份增长目标较2023年有所下调，仅北京、天津、吉林、浙江四个省份上调，反映出各省政府经济发展更加审慎务实的取向。31个省份的加权（权重为2023年GDP）目标增速为5.4%，将对全国经济增长目标的达成形成支撑。经济大省体现“真正挑起大梁”的担当。在超过半数省份下调增长目标的背景下，粤苏鲁浙川豫6个经济大省中仅河南下调目标，浙江更是逆势将增长目标上调0.5个百分点，体现出经济大省对中央经济工作会议“经济大省要真正挑起大梁，为稳定全国经济做出更大贡献”精神的积极响应。6省2023年GDP合计占全国的44%，2024年加权目标增速为5.2%，将在稳定全国经济、支撑5%左右的增长目标达成中发挥关键作用。', 'authorid': UUID('0b80d032-1f8d-5adb-9f2b-6a90d936e98e'), 'sentimentScore': 0.039044253528118134, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '1E9BMNLI29TT3K19NEO07JKEDNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:42:58 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '1E9BMNLI29TT3K19NEO07JKEDNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a3b12746-682e-5a34-9943-a2d0801ae4f9'), 'title': 'Comments on price data in February 2024: Can CPI continue to exceed expectations?', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Chang Yixin', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BCLOxpfFP9fEU394ECOi55k=', 'researcher': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000387731'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BCLOxpfFP9fEU394ECOi55k=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209316_1.pdf?1710147936000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209316_1.pdf?1710147936000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on price data in February 2024: Can CPI continue to exceed expectations?', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'originalContent': '事项：2024年2月CPI同比0.7%，PPI同比为-2.7%。平安观点：CPI同比由跌转涨。2024年2月CPI同比增0.7%，较上月提升1.5个百分点；剔除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增1.2%，较上月提升0.8个百分点。春节错位对CPI增速的扰动较大。去年春节时间偏早，2月CPI环比回落0.5%；而今年春节时间偏晚，2月CPI环比增长1%，基本符合春节前后的变化规律，且高于受疫情影响较大的2022年同期。从结构上看，1）春节旅游出行火热，是CPI的最强支撑。2月旅游价格同比增23.1%，达2002年1月有统计以来的最高值。我们估算，旅游支出在居民消费中的占比约为4%，旅游价格对2月CPI同比增速的拉动或接近0.9个百分点。2）能源价格反弹，食品价格向季节性均值靠拢，也有助于CPI增速的稳定。2月交通工具用燃料环比上行1.9%，对CPI由拖累转为支撑。CPI食品项环比上涨3.3%，接近历史同期均值。往后看，CPI增速恢复的可持续性有待观察。1）春节假期结束后，旅游出行迅速降温，机票价格的下跌速度也快于以往。若3月份旅游价格环比回落10%（与18-19年同期相当），旅游价格的同比增速将回落至11.2%，预计旅游对3月CPI同比增速的拉动较2月减弱0.5个百分点。2）房地产行业持续磨底，对居住服务及耐用品价格的拖累还在延续。2月通信工具、衣着价格环比分别下跌1.1%、下跌0.2%，家用器具价格持平于上月。CPI居住分项已连续6个月环比持平，同比增速也趋向回落。3）食品价格表现一定程度上受部分地区雨雪天气影响，此前连续7个月的环比表现弱于季节性。PPI同比跌幅扩大，较上月回落0.2个百分点至-2.7%；环比持平于-0.2%。PPI环比表现的支撑因素在于，国际市场原油价格偏强，对化工产业链价格形成推升。我们测算，石化产业链五个行业对PPI环比增速拉动较上���提升0.17个百分点。PPI环比表现的拖累因素在于，内需定价的原材料、电力煤炭、装备制造价格表现偏弱。一是，建筑施工需求季节性走弱，春节假期钢材、水泥等行业需求减少，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、水泥制造价格回落。二是，装备制造主要行业价格均下跌（包括锂离子电池制造、新能源车整车制造、通用设备制造、铁路船舶运输设备制造、计算机通信电子设备制造、金属制品业），或受部分行业产能过剩拖累。三是，北方气温偏高，采暖用煤需求减少，加之非电用煤需求季节性偏弱，煤炭开采和洗选业、水电燃气相关的三个子行业价格均回落。', 'content': \"Matters: In February 2024, the CPI was 0.7% year-on-year, and the PPI was -2.7% year-on-year. Ping An's perspective: CPI turned from falling to rising year-on-year. In February 2024, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the core CPI excluding food and energy increased by 1.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The misalignment of the Spring Festival has a greater impact on CPI growth. Last year's Spring Festival was too early, and the CPI fell by 0.5% month-on-month in February. However, this year's Spring Festival was too late, and the CPI in February increased by 1% month-on-month, which is basically in line with the change pattern before and after the Spring Festival, and is higher than the same period in 2022, which was greatly affected by the epidemic. From a structural point of view, 1) Spring Festival travel is booming, which is the strongest support for CPI. Tourism prices in February increased by 23.1% year-on-year, reaching the highest value since statistics were collected in January 2002. We estimate that tourism expenditure accounts for about 4% of household consumption, and tourism prices may have contributed nearly 0.9 percentage points to the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in February. 2) A rebound in energy prices and food prices moving closer to the seasonal average will also help stabilize CPI growth. In February, transportation fuel consumption increased by 1.9% month-on-month, which turned from a drag to a support for CPI. CPI food items increased by 3.3% month-on-month, close to the historical average for the same period. Looking forward, the sustainability of the CPI growth recovery remains to be seen. 1) After the Spring Festival holiday, tourism has cooled down rapidly, and air ticket prices have fallen faster than before. If tourism prices fall by 10% month-on-month in March (similar to the same period in 2018-19), the year-on-year growth rate of tourism prices will fall back to 11.2%. It is expected that tourism’s contribution to the year-on-year CPI growth rate in March will be 0.5 percentage points weaker than in February. 2) The real estate industry continues to bottom out, which continues to drag down the prices of residential services and durable goods. In February, the prices of communication tools and clothing fell by 1.1% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively, while the prices of household appliances remained unchanged from the previous month. The residential component of CPI has remained unchanged month-on-month for six consecutive months, and the year-on-year growth rate has also tended to decline. 3) Food price performance is affected to a certain extent by rain and snow in some areas. The previous seven consecutive months of month-on-month performance were weaker than seasonal. The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded, falling 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to -2.7%; month-on-month, it remained unchanged at -0.2%. The supporting factor for the month-on-month performance of PPI is that the price of crude oil in the international market is relatively strong, which has pushed up the price of the chemical industry chain. We estimate that the five industries in the petrochemical industry chain contributed to the month-on-month growth of PPI by 0.17 percentage points compared with the previous month. The drag factor on the month-on-month performance of PPI is that the price performance of raw materials, electricity, coal, and equipment manufacturing priced by domestic demand is weak. First, the demand for construction has weakened seasonally. During the Spring Festival holiday, demand for steel, cement and other industries has decreased, and prices for ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries and cement manufacturing have fallen. Second, prices in major equipment manufacturing industries have fallen (including lithium-ion battery manufacturing, new energy vehicle manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing, railway and shipping equipment manufacturing, computer communications electronic equipment manufacturing, and the metal products industry), or the production capacity of some industries has declined. Excess drag. Third, the temperature in the north is high, the demand for heating coal is reduced, and the demand for non-electricity coal is seasonally weak. Prices in the three sub-sectors related to coal mining and washing, and water, electricity and gas have all fallen.\", 'authorid': UUID('149306d1-3d93-5b17-941a-f5aa3a00dc04'), 'sentimentScore': 0.624542698264122, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TGBCPLATU6QISTQ8FUAB826HKJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:43:01 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TGBCPLATU6QISTQ8FUAB826HKJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('28a88690-4870-5ee5-a056-0d33a541b8ef'), 'title': 'The macro chapter of the interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Promote stability through advancement and strive for progress', 'author': 'Tan Zhuo, Niu Mengqi, Wang Xintian, Zhang Bingying, Liu Yang, Wang Tiancheng', 'orgName': '招商银行股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BG8lMd+4LXaio8jmNXkPU7k=', 'researcher': '谭卓,牛梦琦,王欣恬,张冰莹,刘阳,王天程', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000281853', '11000353933', '11000369840', '11000430037', '11000392636', '11000412642'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BG8lMd+4LXaio8jmNXkPU7k=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209317_1.pdf?1710168745000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209317_1.pdf?1710168745000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The macro chapter of the interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Promote stability through advancement and strive for progress', 'originalAuthor': '谭卓,牛梦琦,王欣恬,张冰莹,刘阳,王天程', 'originalContent': '3月5日，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告（以下简称《报告》），回顾2023年工作，研判当前形势，提出2024年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向，并部署重点工作任务。一、形势判断：战略机遇和风险挑战并存《报告》首先回顾了2023年工作成绩，认为过去一年多重困难挑战交织叠加，我国经济波浪式发展、曲折式前进，全年经济运行呈现前低中高后稳态势，成绩来之不易。《报告》客观分析了去年外部和内部、短期和长期、内生和外生的困难挑战，指出“外需下滑和内需不足碰头，周期性和结构性问题并存”，一些地方的房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等风险隐患凸显，部分地区遭受严重自然灾害。因此，“政策抉择和工作推进面临的两难多难问题明显增加”。尽管如此，去年我国仍然实现了全年预期发展目标，这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导的结果，是全国上下团结奋斗的结果。在此基础上，《报告》对今年形势作出研判，基调与去年末中央经济工作会议一致。从外部看，“复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升”，主要是世界经济增长动能不足，地区热点问题频发。从内部看，“持续回升向好的基础还不稳固”，存在“有效需求不足，部分行业产能过剩，社会预期偏弱，风险隐患仍然较多，国内大循环存在堵点，国际循环存在干扰”六大挑战。其中最后一项为新增表述，或与近期外贸外资领域下行压力有关。《报告》强调了上年关注的中小企业经营、就业、公共服务、基层财力、科技创新、生态环境、安全生产以及工作作风等方面的问题，新增“重点领域改革仍有不少硬骨头要啃”的表述，并对此在今年工作任务第四项进行了“坚定不移深化改革”专题部署。在直面问题和挑战的同时，《报告》强调今年我国发展“有利条件强于不利因素”，指出我国在制度、大市场、产业体系和人才方面的优势，发展内生动力在不断集聚，“必须增强信心和底气”。二、发展目标：积极进取、奋发有为《报告》指出，今年各项预期目标的设定“兼顾了需要和可能”。各目标的设定总体积极、内生一致，隐含了中国经济进一步复苏向好的基准情景，体现了“以进促稳”的政策取向。《报告》强调，“实现今年预期目标并非易事，需要政策聚焦发力、工作加倍努力、各方面齐心协力”。1.增长目标：积极进取，以进促稳今年我国经济增长目标为“5%左右”，与去年一致，符合市场预期。《报告》指出，这一目标的设定既考虑了短期促进就业增收、防范化解风险，以及实现中长期发展目标的需要，也考虑了经济增长的潜在可能。一方面，合理的经济增速是经济高质量发展的内在要求。《报告》起草组负责人、国务院研究室主任黄守宏3月5日在国新办发布会上表示，“从现在到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化的目标，大体要保持5%左右的经济增速”。短期看，积极的增长目标可以有效提振信心，有利于在“稳增长”的同时防范化解风险。另一方面，今年实现经济增长目标的难度较上年进一步上升。去年我国经济增长5.2%存在低基数支撑，两年复合增速为4.1%，距离5%仍有约1个百分点的差距。因此，今年基数效应消退后，要实现5%左右的增长，有赖于各项政策积极进取、协同发力。2.就业目标：强化新增就业《报告》提出今年“城镇新增就业1,200万人以上，城镇调查失业率5.5%左右”的目标，其中新增就业目标表述由去年的“左右”强化为“以上”，失业率目标与惯例一致。进取的新增就业目标既有需要，也有压力。去年，我国实现城镇新增就业1,244万，相较1,200万目标富余度相对有限。今年就业供给或进一步上升，高校毕业生预计超过1,170万人，较去年的1,158万进一步上升12万，再创历史新高。吸纳增量供给，需要政策积极发力，通过有效推动经济高质量发展，缓解就业总量压力和结构性矛盾。《报告》在工作任务部分对稳就业促增收进行了专门部署，指出“就业是最基本的民生”。3.通胀目标：持平往年居民消费价格涨幅目标继续保持“3%左右”，与往年一致。去年居民消费价格上涨0.2%，显著低于目标涨幅。今年我国通胀水平有望温和复苏。《报告》提出的赤字率和赤字规模目标隐含的通胀预期也将较去年显著提高。今年赤字率隐含的名义GDP增速预期中枢约7.3%，下限为5.9%（以赤字率3.04%计）。结合5%的实际GDP增速，《报告》对GDP平减指数同比增速的预期中枢为2.3%，下限为0.9%，相较去年的-0.6%，预期回升幅度超过1.5pct。当前市场对CPI通胀预期在1-2%之间。CPI通胀要实现更为陡峭的修复，需要综合施策有效增强经济增长内生动能，提振信心、改善需求、优化供给。4.其他目标：量化能耗目标回归其他主要目标方面，与去年相比，“居民收入增长与经济增长基本同步”“粮食产量保持在1.3万亿斤以上”的目标保持一致；“国际收支基本平衡”目标保留，“进出口促稳提质”的表述被隐去。值得注意的是，在绿色发展上，《报告》提出单位GDP能耗“降低2.5%左右”，相较去年“继续下降”的要求强化。此前，2018-2019年与2021年，该目标为降低3%“以上”或“左右”，但在过去两年并未设立量化目标。今年量化目标再度回归，尽管降幅要求较2021年边际收窄，但考虑到降低能耗的难度边际递增，当前的要求可能更高。', 'content': '3月5日，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告（以下简称《报告》），回顾2023年工作，研判当前形势，提出2024年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向，并部署重点工作任务。一、形势判断：战略机遇和风险挑战并存《报告》首先回顾了2023年工作成绩，认为过去一年多重困难挑战交织叠加，我国经济波浪式发展、曲折式前进，全年经济运行呈现前低中高后稳态势，成绩来之不易。《报告》客观分析了去年外部和内部、短期和长期、内生和外生的困难挑战，指出“外需下滑和内需不足碰头，周期性和结构性问题并存”，一些地方的房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等风险隐患凸显，部分地区遭受严重自然灾害。因此，“政策抉择和工作推进面临的两难多难问题明显增加”。尽管如此，去年我国仍然实现了全年预期发展目标，这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导的结果，是全国上下团结奋斗的结果。在此基础上，《报告》对今年形势作出研判，基调与去年末中央经济工作会议一致。从外部看，“复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升”，主要是世界经济增长动能不足，地区热点问题频发。从内部看，“持续回升向好的基础还不稳固”，存在“有效需求不足，部分行业产能过剩，社会预期偏弱，风险隐患仍然较多，国内大循环存在堵点，国际循环存在干扰”六大挑战。其中最后一项为新增表述，或与近期外贸外资领域下行压力有关。《报告》强调了上年关注的中小企业经营、就业、公共服务、基层财力、科技创新、生态环境、安全生产以及工作作风等方面的问题，新增“重点领域改革仍有不少硬骨头要啃”的表述，并对此在今年工作任务第四项进行了“坚定不移深化改革”专题部署。在直面问题和挑战的同时，《报告》强调今年我国发展“有利条件强于不利因素”，指出我国在制度、���市场、产业体系和人才方面的优势，发展内生动力在不断集聚，“必须增强信心和底气”。二、发展目标：积极进取、奋发有为《报告》指出，今年各项预期目标的设定“兼顾了需要和可能”。各目标的设定总体积极、内生一致，隐含了中国经济进一步复苏向好的基准情景，体现了“以进促稳”的政策取向。《报告》强调，“实现今年预期目标并非易事，需要政策聚焦发力、工作加倍努力、各方面齐心协力”。1.增长目标：积极进取，以进促稳今年我国经济增长目标为“5%左右”，与去年一致，符合市场预期。《报告》指出，这一目标的设定既考虑了短期促进就业增收、防范化解风险，以及实现中长期发展目标的需要，也考虑了经济增长的潜在可能。一方面，合理的经济增速是经济高质量发展的内在要求。《报告》起草组负责人、国务院研究室主任黄守宏3月5日在国新办发布会上表示，“从现在到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化的目标，大体要保持5%左右的经济增速”。短期看，积极的增长目标可以有效提振信心，有利于在“稳增长”的同时防范化解风险。另一方面，今年实现经济增长目标的难度较上年进一步上升。去年我国经济增长5.2%存在低基数支撑，两年复合增速为4.1%，距离5%仍有约1个百分点的差距。因此，今年基数效应消退后，要实现5%左右的增长，有赖于各项政策积极进取、协同发力。2.就业目标：强化新增就业《报告》提出今年“城镇新增就业1,200万人以上，城镇调查失业率5.5%左右”的目标，其中新增就业目标表述由去年的“左右”强化为“以上”，失业率目标与惯例一致。进取的新增就业目标既有需要，也有压力。去年，我国实现城镇新增就业1,244万，相较1,200万目标富余度相对有限。今年就业供给或进一步上升，高校毕业生预计超过1,170万人，较去年的1,158万进一步上升12万，再创历史新高。吸纳增量供给，需要政策积极发力，通过有效推动经济高质量发展，缓解就业总量压力和结构性矛盾。《报告》在工作任务部分对稳就业促增收进行了专门部署，指出“就业是最基本的民生”。3.通胀目标：持平往年居民消费价格涨幅目标继续保持“3%左右”，与往年一致。去年居民消费价格上涨0.2%，显著低于目标涨幅。今年我国通胀水平有望温和复苏。《报告》提出的赤字率和赤字规模目标隐含的通胀预期也将较去年显著提高。今年赤字率隐含的名义GDP增速预期中枢约7.3%，下限为5.9%（以赤字率3.04%计）。结合5%的实际GDP增速，《报告》对GDP平减指数同比增速的预期中枢为2.3%，下限为0.9%，相较去年的-0.6%，预期回升幅度超过1.5pct。当前市场对CPI通胀预期在1-2%之间。CPI通胀要实现更为陡峭的修复，需要综合施策有效增强经济增长内生动能，提振信心、改善需求、优化供给。4.其他目标：量化能耗目标回归其他主要目标方面，与去年相比，“居民收入增长与经济增长基本同步”“粮食产量保持在1.3万亿斤以上”的目标保持一致；“国际收支基本平衡”目标保留，“进出口促稳提质”的表述被隐去。值得注意的是，在绿色发展上，《报告》提出单位GDP能耗“降低2.5%左右”，相较去年“继续下降”的要求强化。此前，2018-2019年与2021年，该目标为降低3%“以上”或“左右”，但在过去两年并未设立量化目标。今年量化目标再度回归，尽管降幅要求较2021年边际收窄，但考虑到降低能耗的难度边际递增，当前的要求可能更高。', 'authorid': UUID('c68034f6-188b-5b40-8d5b-57b60b914f50'), 'sentimentScore': 0.1050495021045208, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'S279RDO1R30J6I170M5AI290OVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:43:05 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'S279RDO1R30J6I170M5AI290OVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('137f7773-b3eb-50f7-b700-995669d4305e'), 'title': 'Overseas market tracking: soft demand, inflation easing', 'author': 'Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli', 'orgName': '上海证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000155', 'orgSName': '上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BGaA/EB3BowJFuB1b7QonZ0=', 'researcher': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172617', '11000235839'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BGaA/EB3BowJFuB1b7QonZ0=', 'site': 'Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '上海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209302_1.pdf?1710152794000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209302_1.pdf?1710152794000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas market tracking: soft demand, inflation easing', 'originalAuthor': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'originalContent': '投资摘要海外市场跟踪——（2.26-3.1）海外股市涨跌均有，日本股市再创新高；海外国债收益率涨跌互现；美元指数有所回落，美元兑除日元外均有所升值；CRB指数有所回升，主要商品除铜、小麦外均有所上涨。发达国家制造业景气度回落2月主要发达国家制造业景气度以回落为主。美国2月PMI下降1.3个百分点至47.8%；欧盟PMI下降0.1个百分点至46.5%，其中法国回升4个百分点至47.1%，德国下降3个百分点至42.5%；英国2月PMI为47.5%，上涨0.2个百分点；日本下降0.8个百分点至47.2%。整体来看，海外需求仍然较疲软，欧盟中主要国家表现分化。美国日本通胀持续回落美国1月PCE同比增长2.4%，核心PCE同比增长2.85%，较上月均有所回落，美国通胀进一步缓解。美联储曾强调，政策利率可能处于本轮紧缩周期的峰值，但在对通胀可持续向2%迈进的信心增强之前，降低联邦基金利率的目标区间是不合适的。我们认为，当前利率已在顶部，通胀回落的延续或将加快降息的到来。日本1月CPI同比增长2.2%，较上月下降0.4个百分点；环比增长0.1%，由负转正。日本通胀进一步回落，创下近两年新低。风险提示俄乌冲突、中东冲突等地缘政治事件恶化，国际金融形势改变；中国通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。', 'content': \"Investment summary overseas market tracking - (2.26-3.1) Overseas stock markets rose and fell, and the Japanese stock market hit a new high; overseas debt yields were mixed; the U.S. dollar index fell back, and the U.S. dollar appreciated against all but the Japanese yen ; The CRB index has rebounded, and all major commodities except copper and wheat have increased. The manufacturing boom in developed countries fell back. The manufacturing boom in major developed countries mainly fell back in February. The US PMI fell by 1.3 percentage points to 47.8% in February; the EU PMI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 46.5%, with France rising by 4 percentage points to 47.1% and Germany falling by 3 percentage points to 42.5%; the UK PMI in February was 47.5%, rising. 0.2 percentage points; Japan dropped 0.8 percentage points to 47.2%. Overall, overseas demand is still weak, and the performance of major countries in the EU is divided. Inflation in the U.S. and Japan continues to fall. The U.S. PCE increased by 2.4% year-on-year in January, and the core PCE increased by 2.85% year-on-year. Both declined from the previous month, and U.S. inflation further eased. The Fed has emphasized that policy rates may be at the peak of this tightening cycle, but that lowering the target range for the federal funds rate would not be appropriate until confidence in inflation's sustainable move toward 2% increases. We believe that the current interest rate is at the top, and the continuation of the fall in inflation may accelerate the arrival of interest rate cuts. Japan's CPI increased by 2.2% year-on-year in January, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; it increased by 0.1% month-on-month, turning from negative to positive. Japan's inflation fell further, hitting a new low in the past two years. Risks suggest that geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East conflict have worsened, and the international financial situation has changed; China's inflation has risen beyond expectations, and China's monetary policy has changed beyond expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('23836b0d-75e0-5a50-a109-862fde53e3bf'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8738689757883549, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GJERA8ULCRHCEPA2E1910MNPEVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:43:08 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GJERA8ULCRHCEPA2E1910MNPEVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "https://reportapi.eastmoney.com/report/jg?cb=datatable8544623&pageSize=100&beginTime=2023-12-16&endTime=2024-03-15&pageNo=1&qType=3\n", - "{'id': UUID('edf8968b-79e9-50a9-bad0-d4a1a8a4a2e9'), 'title': 'Information Accessibility Trends (Issue 2, 2024)', 'author': 'Institute of Industry and Planning, Digital Management Research Department', 'orgName': '中国信息通信研究院', 'orgCode': '80635291', 'orgSName': '中国信通院', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmQnpPs7nePPY8D67Qgka0uU=', 'researcher': '产业与规划研究所,数字化管理研究部', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000433231', '11000436435'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmQnpPs7nePPY8D67Qgka0uU=', 'site': 'China Academy of Information and Communications Technology', 'originalSite': '中国信通院', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827543_1.pdf?1710522904000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827543_1.pdf?1710522904000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Information Accessibility Trends (Issue 2, 2024)', 'originalAuthor': '产业与规划研究所,数字化管理研究部', 'originalContent': '部委动态工业和信息化部指导发布互联网应用适老化优秀案例集2月1日，中国信息通信研究院、数字适老化及信息无障碍联盟在工业和信息化部信息通信管理局部署要求下，以“数字技术增进民生福祉，适老发展助力银发生活”为主题，举办数字技术适老化高质量发展推进会。会议上，中国信息通信研究院与中国互联网协会发布《数字惠民：互联网应用适老化及无障碍实践优秀案例集》（以下简称《案例集》）。《案例集》共收录了38个互联网网站、手机App优秀改造案例，覆盖新闻资讯、社交通讯、生活购物、医疗健康、金融服务、学习教育、交通出行和政务服务八大领域，旨在推广“通用设计理念”与先进经验做法，从方法上启发思路，从模式上提供借鉴，从实践上引导创新，更好地满足老年人、残疾人深层次、多样化的信息交流需求。此外，在会议上三家基础电信企业与多家头部互联网企业等27家单位共同签署“数字技术适老化高质量发展宣言”。同期，数字适老化及信息无障碍联盟启动“2024年数字助老计划”，将优先重点在本地生活、旅游出行、社交通信和医疗健康等领域落地实施。', 'content': 'Ministries and Commissions News The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology guided the release of a collection of outstanding cases of Internet application for aging. On February 1, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology and the Digital Age-Adapted and Information Accessibility Alliance, under the deployment requirements of the Information and Communications Administration of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, With the theme of \"Digital technology improves people\\'s livelihood and well-being, and age-appropriate development supports the lives of seniors\", a promotion conference for the high-quality development of digital technology for age-appropriate development was held. At the meeting, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology and the Internet Society of China released \"Digital Benefiting the People: A Collection of Excellent Practice Cases of Internet Applications for Aging and Accessibility\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Case Collection\"). The \"Case Collection\" contains a total of 38 excellent transformation cases of Internet websites and mobile apps, covering eight major fields: news and information, social communication, life shopping, medical health, financial services, learning and education, transportation and government services, aiming to promote \"universal Design concepts\" and advanced experience and practices inspire ideas in terms of methods, provide reference from models, and guide innovation in practice to better meet the deep-seated and diverse information exchange needs of the elderly and disabled people. In addition, at the meeting, 27 units including three basic telecommunications companies and a number of leading Internet companies jointly signed the \"Declaration on High-Quality Development of Digital Technology for Aging\". At the same time, the Digital Aging and Information Accessibility Alliance launched the \"2024 Digital Assistance Plan\", which will prioritize implementation in areas such as local life, tourism, social communications, and medical health.', 'authorid': UUID('fc3026bc-fccb-5556-b786-e882668b0f90'), 'sentimentScore': 0.1761248093098402, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3DFATTJ30CPCAPOSV2V2F401ONVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:43:13 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3DFATTJ30CPCAPOSV2V2F401ONVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3daca595-311e-5d82-8422-3dc6874d6aa1'), 'title': 'Focus on the two sessions, high-end manufacturing policy interpretation: focus on new productivity and build a new digital full industry chain', 'author': 'Wang Yang, Ning Lijie', 'orgName': '联合资信评估股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80002172', 'orgSName': '联合资信', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmeFAp7mt3UIS44pLyZa9/1M=', 'researcher': '王阳,宁立杰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000432842', '11000432841'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmeFAp7mt3UIS44pLyZa9/1M=', 'site': 'United Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '联合资信', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827545_1.pdf?1710522334000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827545_1.pdf?1710522334000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Focus on the two sessions, high-end manufacturing policy interpretation: focus on new productivity and build a new digital full industry chain', 'originalAuthor': '王阳,宁立杰', 'originalContent': '2023年政府工作任务中，“加快建设现代化产业体系”位于第二位，在当前科技产业变革蓄势待发的环境下，2024年政府工作报告在工作任务中，将“大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力”列至首位，并围绕创新链产业链资金链人才链一体部署实施，将“科教兴国战略”列为第二项重要任务。未来，通过集成国家战略科技力量、社会创新资源，关键技术与产业创新的逐步推进，深度推进，有望为高端制造业的发展提供良好的外部环境。', 'content': 'Among the government work tasks in 2023, \"accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system\" ranks second. In the current environment where the technological industry is ready to change, the 2024 government work report will \"vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system\" among the work tasks. \", accelerating the development of new productive forces\" was ranked first, and the \"strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education\" was listed as the second important task around the integrated deployment and implementation of the innovation chain, industrial chain, capital chain and talent chain. In the future, through the integration of national strategic scientific and technological strength, social innovation resources, and the gradual and in-depth advancement of key technologies and industrial innovation, it is expected to provide a good external environment for the development of high-end manufacturing.', 'authorid': UUID('6572575b-a871-5c81-a50c-de577f7f8583'), 'sentimentScore': 0.2047610143199563, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'S6FISMQK4KRFGED8OJIC2BFMV3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:43:35 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'S6FISMQK4KRFGED8OJIC2BFMV3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c10a76dc-1782-508f-870b-c26e59d65162'), 'title': '2023 Urban Basic and Public Service APP Traffic Monitoring Report', 'author': 'TMT Beijing Special Team', 'orgName': '艾瑞股份', 'orgCode': '80365131', 'orgSName': '艾瑞股份', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmWls7UAiuvlRLZo7zOC4eiQ=', 'researcher': 'TMT北京专项组', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000456232'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmWls7UAiuvlRLZo7zOC4eiQ=', 'site': 'iResearch', 'originalSite': '艾瑞股份', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827538_1.pdf?1710521918000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827538_1.pdf?1710521918000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '2023 Urban Basic and Public Service APP Traffic Monitoring Report', 'originalAuthor': 'TMT北京专项组', 'originalContent': '城市基础及公共服务类应用整体发展现状：截至2023年末，中国移动互联网月独立设备数已连续数月保持在约13.9亿的水平，整体流量增长已经遇到瓶颈，但城市基础及公共服务类APP却凭借其独特的优势保持着高速增长态势。主要原因是其能满足用户日益多样化的需求，提供一体化服务，并通过实施“大APP战略”，即通过整合各类资源和服务到一个综合应用中，提升用户体验、实现资源的高效整合与成本的降低，同时为用户提供更多便捷的服务可能性。这种策略使得城市基础及公共服务类APP在竞争激烈的移动互联网市场中脱颖而出，保持了强劲的增长势头。', 'content': 'The overall development status of urban basic and public service applications: As of the end of 2023, the number of monthly independent devices of China Mobile Internet has remained at about 1.39 billion for several consecutive months. The overall traffic growth has encountered a bottleneck, but urban basic and public service APPs However, it has maintained a rapid growth trend by virtue of its unique advantages. The main reason is that it can meet the increasingly diverse needs of users, provide integrated services, and implement the \"big APP strategy\", that is, by integrating various resources and services into a comprehensive application to improve user experience and achieve efficient integration of resources. and cost reduction, while providing users with more convenient service possibilities. This strategy allows urban basic and public service apps to stand out in the highly competitive mobile Internet market and maintain strong growth momentum.', 'authorid': UUID('6dd93ba4-3651-5f77-81f5-1d8a522ee525'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8192497426643968, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '4O8N27C4MIRLS8NG1IO41KA5B3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:43:39 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '4O8N27C4MIRLS8NG1IO41KA5B3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('651af450-4440-5e5c-b6fa-403932013c9c'), 'title': 'Liquidity Tracking Weekly Report', 'author': 'Xu Ying, Lin Yonglu', 'orgName': '麦高证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80049237', 'orgSName': '麦高证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmUxggl1sNKQ5zPB0lIeQXm8=', 'researcher': '徐滢,林永绿', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000449878', '11000449879'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmUxggl1sNKQ5zPB0lIeQXm8=', 'site': 'Mago Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '麦高证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827021_1.pdf?1710516419000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827021_1.pdf?1710516419000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Liquidity Tracking Weekly Report', 'originalAuthor': '徐滢,林永绿', 'originalContent': '上周公开市场净投放6320亿元，本周有11640亿元逆回购到期上周（2024年2月26日—2024年3月3日）央行公开市场净投放6320亿元，其中7天逆回购投放11640亿元，到期5320亿元，维持1.80%利率水平。本周（2024年3月4日—2024年3月8日）有11640亿元的逆回购到期。R007与DR007利差小幅下跌，交易所回购利率上行R001均值为2.07%，较前一周上行11.50BP，DR001均值为1.71%较前一周上行5.86BP。DR007加权均价的均值为1.85%，较前一周上行3.47BP。R007加权均价的均值为2.13%，较前一周上行3.04BP。二者收盘价利差（R007-DR007）收于-0.05BP，较前一周下行0.06BP。交易所回购利率上行，GC007均值为2.13%，较前一周上行2.64BP。同业存单发行总额减少，平均票面利率下行上周同业存单到期量有所减少，为5174.30亿元（前一周为5229.10亿元），发行数量减少至633只，实际发行总额为5734.30亿元（前一周为11226.80亿元）。平均票面利率下行2.23BP至2.24%。风险提示：政策超预期、金融监管超预期等。', 'content': 'Last week, there was a net investment of 632 billion yuan in the open market, and 1,164 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired this week. Last week (February 26, 2024 - March 3, 2024), the central bank had a net investment of 632 billion yuan in the open market, of which 7 days The reverse repurchase investment amounted to 1.164 billion yuan, with a maturity of 532 billion yuan and an interest rate of 1.80%. This week (March 4, 2024 - March 8, 2024), 1.164 billion yuan of reverse repurchases expired. The spread between R007 and DR007 fell slightly. The exchange repurchase rate increased. The average value of R001 was 2.07%, an increase of 11.50 BP from the previous week. The average value of DR001 was 1.71%, an increase of 5.86 BP from the previous week. The average weighted average price of DR007 is 1.85%, an increase of 3.47BP from the previous week. The average weighted average price of R007 was 2.13%, an increase of 3.04BP from the previous week. The closing price difference between the two (R007-DR007) closed at -0.05BP, down 0.06BP from the previous week. The exchange repurchase rate increased, with the average value of GC007 being 2.13%, an increase of 2.64BP from the previous week. The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit decreased, and the average coupon rate fell. The maturity amount of interbank certificates of deposit decreased last week, to 517.430 billion yuan (previous week: 522.910 billion yuan). The number of issuances decreased to 633, and the actual total issuance was 573.430 billion yuan (previous week: 522.910 billion yuan). 1.12268 billion yuan a week). The average coupon rate fell by 2.23BP to 2.24%. Risk warning: Policies exceed expectations, financial supervision exceeds expectations, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('117b2061-d9f1-5a06-93ac-5937039d112f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.03218412585556507, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'C3681GEB52FJBS3I693VLPPLINVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:43:41 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'C3681GEB52FJBS3I693VLPPLINVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('18a9f5c1-3459-57f9-8011-4a65a093e280'), 'title': 'U.S. Economy: Retail sales slow, goods inflation rebounds', 'author': 'Ye Bingnan, Liu Zehui', 'orgName': '招银国际金融有限公司', 'orgCode': '80027629', 'orgSName': '招银国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmWfm2y+JTvZVfMtHhGqUqH0=', 'researcher': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000395738', '11000444841'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmWfm2y+JTvZVfMtHhGqUqH0=', 'site': 'CMB International Capital Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招银国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826910_1.pdf?1710515201000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826910_1.pdf?1710515201000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. Economy: Retail sales slow, goods inflation rebounds', 'originalAuthor': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'originalContent': '美国2月零售环比增长0.6%，低于市场预期的0.8%，过去两月增速大幅下修，显示商品消费温和放缓。但PPI环比增速超预期，因供应链扰动和中欧经济回升推动能源和航运价格反弹。商品通胀反弹可能制约近期去通胀速度。首次领取失业金人数仍处于历史低位，但持续领取失业金人数接近历史高位，就业市场将平缓降温。系列数据公布后，10年国债收益率大幅上行至近4.3%，美元指数走强，货币市场对6月降息概率预期保持在60%左右。近期通胀和就业数据令美联储有更多理由在3月和5月议息会议上保持政策利率不变。随着第二季度经济持续降温，6月可能迎来首次降息。我们维持全年降息100个基点的预测。零售数据表现不及预期。美国2月零售和食品服务销售季调环比反弹0.6%，低于市场预期的0.8%。12月与1月的环比增速分别从0.55%和-0.8%大幅下调至0.11%和-1.05%，显示消费放缓趋势。2月零售反弹主要由于机动车及零部件、建筑材料和加油站，三者环比增速分别从1月的-2.1%、-4.3%和-1.4%反弹至2月的1.6%、2.2%和0.9%。除机动车及零部件和加油站外的零售环比增涨0.3%。核心零售环比持平，低于市场预期的0.4%。电子产品与家用电器零售保持较快增长，但家具、服装和网购等零售环比走弱。食品服务和餐吧作为零售中的服务业消费，在连续两个月环比下跌后2月环比增长0.45%。总体来看，零售数据显示家庭商品消费更明显的放缓迹象。PPI环比增速超预期，因能源和航运价格反弹。PPI最终需求环比涨幅从1月的0.3%扩大至0.6%，高于市场预期。其中能源商品环比大涨4.4%，不包括食品、能源和贸易服务价格的核心PPI上涨0.4%，核心商品价格连续第二个月环比上涨0.3%，而核心服务环比涨幅从1月的0.8放缓至0.5%。从同比数据来看，PPI最终需求和核心PPI的同比涨幅分别从1月的1%和2.6%反弹至1.6%和2.8%。受石油减产、红海事件等供应因素和中国、欧洲经济低位回升等需求因素影响，近期能源与航运价格反弹，推动美国PPI连续两月高于预期，CPI中商品价格见底回升，可能制约短期内去通胀速度，预计2月PCE通胀可能略超预期，美联储有更多理由在近期保持利率不变。领取失业金人数新增季节性调整因素。领取失业金人数数据在3月新增了季节性因素调整，历史数据变得更加平滑。3月第二周的首次申请失业金人数小幅下降0.1万人至20.9万人，过去四周平均仍处于历史低点，显示美国裁员水平依然较低。3月第一周的持续领取失业金人数环比增加1.7万人至181.1万人，过去四周平均数据保持2022年以来高位，显示美国企业招工节奏放缓，未来失业率可能小幅回升。就业市场正在温和放缓，预计未来随着经济进一步降温，劳动力市场供求将更趋平衡，薪资增速将逐渐回落，推动消费增速放缓。经济将温和降温，第二季度可能更加明显。美国经济自2023年下半年以来延续超预期表现，通胀回落速度慢于市场预期。但零售与PMI数据显示经济降温迹象。随着银行系统超额流动性和信贷增速不断下降，第二季度美国经济降温可能更加明显。美联储可能避免在临近大选前的第三季度实施货币政策转向，6月可能首次降息。我们维持全年降息100个基点左右的预测，年末联邦基金利率降至4.3%左右。美国名义GDP增速可能从2023年的6.3%降至2024年的4%，2024-2025年潜在名义GDP增速为4.2%左右，预计10年国债收益率从2023年末的3.9%降至2024年末的3.75%和2025���的3.6%。', 'content': 'U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month in February, lower than market expectations of 0.8%. The growth rate in the past two months has been revised sharply, indicating a moderate slowdown in commodity consumption. However, the month-on-month growth rate of PPI exceeded expectations, as supply chain disruptions and economic recovery in China and Europe drove a rebound in energy and shipping prices. The rebound in commodity inflation may restrict the speed of deflation in the near future. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time is still at a historical low, but the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits is close to a historical high, and the job market will cool down slowly. After the series of data were released, the 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply to nearly 4.3%, the U.S. dollar index strengthened, and the money market’s expectation of a June interest rate cut remained at around 60%. Recent inflation and employment data have given the Fed more reason to keep policy rates unchanged at its March and May interest rate meetings. As the economy continues to cool in the second quarter, June may see the first interest rate cut. We maintain our forecast of a 100 basis point interest rate cut for the full year. Retail sales data fell short of expectations. U.S. retail and food services sales rebounded by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in February, lower than market expectations of 0.8%. The month-on-month growth rates in December and January were significantly reduced from 0.55% and -0.8% to 0.11% and -1.05% respectively, indicating a trend of slowing consumption. The rebound in retail sales in February was mainly due to motor vehicles and parts, construction materials and gas stations. The month-on-month growth rates of the three rebounded from -2.1%, -4.3% and -1.4% in January to 1.6%, 2.2% and 1.4% respectively in February. 0.9%. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts and gas stations increased by 0.3% month-on-month. Core retail sales were flat month-on-month, below market expectations of 0.4%. The retail sales of electronic products and household appliances maintained rapid growth, but the retail sales of furniture, clothing and online shopping weakened month-on-month. Food services and restaurants and bars, as service industry consumption in retail, increased by 0.45% month-on-month in February after falling month-on-month for two consecutive months. Overall, retail sales data show more obvious signs of slowdown in household consumption of goods. The month-on-month growth rate of PPI exceeded expectations due to rebound in energy and shipping prices. The month-on-month increase in final PPI demand expanded to 0.6% from 0.3% in January, which was higher than market expectations. Among them, energy commodities rose 4.4% month-on-month. The core PPI excluding food, energy and trade service prices rose 0.4%. Core commodity prices rose 0.3% month-on-month for the second consecutive month, while the month-on-month increase in core services slowed down from 0.8 in January. to 0.5%. Judging from year-on-year data, the year-on-year growth rates of PPI final demand and core PPI rebounded from 1% and 2.6% in January to 1.6% and 2.8% respectively. Affected by supply factors such as oil production cuts and the Red Sea incident, as well as demand factors such as the economic recovery in China and Europe, the recent rebound in energy and shipping prices has pushed the U.S. PPI to be higher than expected for two consecutive months. Commodity prices in the CPI have bottomed out and rebounded, which may restrict the short-term Regarding the speed of de-inflation, it is expected that PCE inflation in February may be slightly higher than expected, and the Federal Reserve has more reasons to keep interest rates unchanged in the near future. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits adds a seasonal adjustment factor. The data on the number of people receiving unemployment benefits added seasonal adjustments in March, and the historical data became smoother. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the second week of March dropped slightly by 1,000 to 209,000. The average number of people filing for unemployment benefits over the past four weeks is still at a historical low, indicating that the level of layoffs in the United States is still low. The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits in the first week of March increased by 17,000 from the previous month to 1.811 million. The average data over the past four weeks has remained at the highest level since 2022, indicating that the pace of recruitment by US companies has slowed down and the unemployment rate may rebound slightly in the future. The job market is slowing down moderately. It is expected that as the economy cools further in the future, supply and demand in the labor market will become more balanced, and wage growth will gradually decline, driving consumption growth to slow down. The economy will cool modestly, perhaps more significantly in the second quarter. The U.S. economy has continued to outperform expectations since the second half of 2023, and inflation has fallen slower than market expectations. But retail sales and PMI data showed signs of a cooling economy. As excess liquidity in the banking system and credit growth continue to decline, the cooling of the U.S. economy may become more pronounced in the second quarter. The Federal Reserve may avoid implementing a monetary policy shift in the third quarter before the election, and may cut interest rates for the first time in June. We maintain our forecast of an interest rate cut of around 100 basis points throughout the year, with the federal funds rate falling to around 4.3% by the end of the year. The U.S. nominal GDP growth rate may fall from 6.3% in 2023 to 4% in 2024. The potential nominal GDP growth rate in 2024-2025 is about 4.2%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is expected to fall from 3.9% at the end of 2023 to the end of 2024. 3.75% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2025.', 'authorid': UUID('08f97a71-1879-5f33-a1aa-79c7a17d8bf9'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8727751150727272, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'DNUQCLSRMCJTDH4MJ9BLMNGF1VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:43:43 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'DNUQCLSRMCJTDH4MJ9BLMNGF1VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f17cdd71-1c69-583d-98d5-c1bb7d4a8e04'), 'title': 'Macro Research Weekly Report: The two sessions will be held this week, and the market may continue to fluctuate.', 'author': 'Xu Ying', 'orgName': '麦高证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80049237', 'orgSName': '麦高证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmTzrYX2XbHtMAZKyAElN9uI=', 'researcher': '徐滢', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000449878'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmTzrYX2XbHtMAZKyAElN9uI=', 'site': 'Mago Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '麦高证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826722_1.pdf?1710511154000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826722_1.pdf?1710511154000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Research Weekly Report: The two sessions will be held this week, and the market may continue to fluctuate.', 'originalAuthor': '徐滢', 'originalContent': '上周国内主要新闻：1.中国人民银行召开做好金融五篇大文章工作座谈会。2.西班牙巴塞罗那召开的2024年世界移动通信大会上汇聚于主题为“算力网络：智能网络赋能智慧世界”的专题论坛。3.证监会推动区域性股权市场建立与全国性证券交易场所的产品衔接和制度性对接机制。4.证监会党委书记、主席吴清主持召开资本市场法治建设座谈会，就完善资本市场基础制度、加强法治保障听取意见建议。5.国家统计局发布数据显示，2月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.1%，比上月下降0.1个百分点。上周国际主要新闻：1.高盛与穆巴达拉携手启动10亿美元亚太私募信贷投资合作。2.日本1月核心CPI同比上升2%。3.美联储柯林斯表示，基准情景是美联储将于今年降息。4.新西兰联储维持基准利率在5.5%不变，连续第五次暂停加息，符合市场预期。5.俄罗斯央行最终委员决定保持利率不变。一周市场回顾：沪深两市春节前后连续反弹，强势特征明显，沪指更是连续收复几个整数关口，站上3000点。上周的市场经过连续多日反弹后，反弹力度减弱，呈现高位横盘震荡走势，周五收盘沪市仍在3000点上方。值得注意的，上周两市日均成交额在万亿元以上，北向资金更是创一年以来较高的单周流入额，而且北向资金已经连续5周呈现净流入，增量资金入市推动题材股走高，价值股则有所回落。本轮市场反弹更多的是基于资本市场政策发力叠加两会预期，以及海外市场的良好表现，投资者对于资本市场信心增强，入市意愿较强。本周两会即将召开，从目前市场的运行看，市场情绪较为积极，两会期间，市场或将延续震荡走势，但考虑春节前市场开始反弹，反弹至今涨幅较大，震荡回调在所难免，后续看两会政策的定调以及金融数据的情况，市场在经历政策预期之后，终将会落在经济修复和企业盈利的数据上，可关注受益于两会概念的新质生产力相关题材股。风险提示：政策不及预期，国际贸易政策风险，地缘政治冲突风险。', 'content': 'Main domestic news last week: 1. The People\\'s Bank of China held a symposium on five major financial articles. 2. At the 2024 Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, \\u200b\\u200bSpain, they gathered at a special forum with the theme of \"Computing Network: Intelligent Network Empowers a Smart World\". 3. The China Securities Regulatory Commission promotes the establishment of product connection and institutional docking mechanisms between regional equity markets and national securities trading venues. 4. Wu Qing, Secretary and Chairman of the Party Committee of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, presided over a symposium on the construction of the rule of law in the capital market to listen to opinions and suggestions on improving the basic system of the capital market and strengthening the protection of the rule of law. 5. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) in February was 49.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Major international news last week: 1. Goldman Sachs and Mubadala jointly launched a US$1 billion Asia-Pacific private credit investment cooperation. 2. Japan’s core CPI increased by 2% year-on-year in January. 3. Fed Collins said the baseline scenario is that the Fed will cut interest rates this year. 4. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.5%, suspending interest rate increases for the fifth consecutive time, in line with market expectations. 5. The final members of the Russian Central Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Weekly market review: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued to rebound around the Spring Festival, with obvious strong characteristics. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index even regained several integer marks in a row, standing above 3,000 points. After rebounding for many consecutive days last week, the market rebound weakened and showed a high and sideways trend. The Shanghai stock market closed above 3,000 points on Friday. It is worth noting that the average daily trading volume of the two cities last week was more than one trillion yuan, and northbound capital inflows hit the highest level in a year. Moreover, northbound capital has shown net inflows for five consecutive weeks, driven by the entry of incremental funds into the market. Theme stocks rose while value stocks retreated. This round of market rebound is more based on the capital market policy and the expectations of the two sessions, as well as the good performance of overseas markets. Investors have increased confidence in the capital market and have a strong willingness to enter the market. The two sessions are about to be held this week. Judging from the current market operation, the market sentiment is relatively positive. During the two sessions, the market may continue to fluctuate. However, considering that the market began to rebound before the Spring Festival, and the rebound has so far increased significantly, a volatile correction is inevitable. Follow-up With regard to the setting of the policy tone of the Two Sessions and the situation of financial data, after experiencing policy expectations, the market will eventually fall on the data of economic recovery and corporate profits. You can pay attention to stocks related to new productivity that benefit from the concept of the Two Sessions. Risk warning: policies that fall short of expectations, international trade policy risks, and geopolitical conflict risks.', 'authorid': UUID('a7f043a0-c180-553f-9a30-81d8998aa3b6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.10617803130298853, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OH7JF2RB026LVTPKS38KLOPOAJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:43:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OH7JF2RB026LVTPKS38KLOPOAJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ff46ab96-736c-5a56-9887-f8a6919ec107'), 'title': 'International data tracking: U.S. non-farm employment cools, unemployment rate rises unexpectedly', 'author': 'Xu Jingya,Cao Shiqi', 'orgName': '南京证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000051', 'orgSName': '南京证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmecUz+CB3G84obpf5YZ+tIs=', 'researcher': '徐静雅,曹世棋', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000411231', '11000442938'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmecUz+CB3G84obpf5YZ+tIs=', 'site': 'Nanjing Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '南京证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826717_1.pdf?1710515957000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826717_1.pdf?1710515957000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'International data tracking: U.S. non-farm employment cools, unemployment rate rises unexpectedly', 'originalAuthor': '徐静雅,曹世棋', 'originalContent': '美国非农就业降温。美国2月新增非农就业人数超预期，在前值下修下实现增长，但有所���温。2月美国新增非农就业人数达27.5万人，高于预期的19万人。1月新增非农下修了12.4万人，导致2月环比多增4.6万人。就业的最大支撑项依然是保健和社会援助，其中医疗保健就业人数占比在七成左右。后续来看，新冠过后流行病明显增多，后遗症及其触发的其他基础疾病对医疗保健的需求仍能支持其保持一定就业规模的扩张。预计未来医疗保健就业能够围绕目前中枢水平小幅震荡。其次的支撑项是住宿餐饮，其中餐饮是主要的增长项，占比超九成。猜测原因可能来自于旅游和出差等的增长，因为与其相关的酒店住宿、航空运输、旅游观光交通、过境和地面客运均出现不同程度的就业增长。美国劳动力供需结构改善。美国2月失业率抬头，劳动力供需结构得到进一步改善，逐渐趋于平衡。2月美国失业人数大幅增加，失业率提升至3.9%，超过市场预期3.7%。实际失业率与自然失业率计算的劳动力缺口回升至-0.52%，去年至今的走势是逐步收敛。美国职位空缺数从去年至今呈缓慢下行趋势，最近也是连续2个月回落，1月已从降至886.3万个。1月职位空缺数与失业人数计算口径得出的劳动力缺口和去年四季度的3个月相比是有所放大的，但2月在失业人数大幅增加背景下，该缺口大概率会收窄。2月平均时薪同比小幅回落至4.28%，环比大幅下降至0.14%，反映了劳动报酬增长的韧性减弱，就业市场逐步降温。风险提示：美国经济韧性超预期，地缘政治风险，美国财政债务压力凸显，金融部门流动性风险。', 'content': 'U.S. non-farm employment has cooled. The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in February exceeded expectations and increased despite a downward revision to the previous value, but it has cooled down. The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States reached 275,000 in February, higher than the expected 190,000. New non-agricultural employment in January was revised down to 124,000, resulting in an increase of 46,000 from the previous month in February. The biggest support for employment is still health care and social assistance, of which health care employment accounts for about 70%. In the future, the epidemic will increase significantly after the new crown epidemic, and the demand for medical care due to the sequelae and other basic diseases triggered by it can still support the expansion of maintaining a certain employment scale. It is expected that health care employment will fluctuate slightly around the current central level in the future. The second supporting item is accommodation and catering, of which catering is the main growth item, accounting for over 90%. It is speculated that the reason may come from the growth of tourism and business trips, because related hotel accommodation, air transportation, tourism transportation, transit and ground passenger transportation have all experienced varying degrees of employment growth. The labor supply and demand structure in the United States has improved. The unemployment rate in the United States increased in February, and the labor supply and demand structure further improved and gradually became balanced. The number of unemployed people in the United States increased significantly in February, with the unemployment rate rising to 3.9%, exceeding market expectations of 3.7%. The labor gap calculated between the actual unemployment rate and the natural unemployment rate has rebounded to -0.52%, and the trend since last year has gradually converged. The number of job vacancies in the United States has been on a slow downward trend since last year, and has recently fallen for two consecutive months, falling from 8.863 million in January. The labor gap calculated based on the number of job vacancies and the number of unemployed people in January was enlarged compared with the three months in the fourth quarter of last year. However, in February, against the background of a significant increase in the number of unemployed people, the gap is likely to narrow. The average hourly wage in February fell slightly to 4.28% year-on-year and dropped sharply to 0.14% month-on-month, reflecting the weakening resilience of labor remuneration growth and the gradual cooling of the job market. Risk warning: The resilience of the U.S. economy exceeds expectations, geopolitical risks, prominent U.S. fiscal debt pressure, and liquidity risks in the financial sector.', 'authorid': UUID('b2efc2af-3d99-51ba-8361-3770c0b4d165'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7568733468651772, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '217DRJ8K7RERJC7A88NGPUOURBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:43:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '217DRJ8K7RERJC7A88NGPUOURBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "The read operation timed out\n", - "{'id': UUID('3ce94f65-645b-5b51-aad4-b76f112339db'), 'title': 'Comments on trade data from January to February 2024: The export trend is strong at the beginning of the year, and its sustainability remains to be seen.', 'author': 'Feng Lin', 'orgName': '东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司', 'orgCode': '80117870', 'orgSName': '东方金诚', 'publishDate': '2024-03-15', 'encodeUrl': '/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmdBrUzImJkJF7JT0/Js2pI4=', 'researcher': '冯琳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000282735'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmdBrUzImJkJF7JT0/Js2pI4=', 'site': 'Oriental Jincheng International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东方金诚', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826711_1.pdf?1710515415000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826711_1.pdf?1710515415000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on trade data from January to February 2024: The export trend is strong at the beginning of the year, and its sustainability remains to be seen.', 'originalAuthor': '冯琳', 'originalContent': '事件：根据海关部署公布的数据，以美元计价，2024年1-2月出口额同比增长7.1%，2023年12月同比为2.3%；1-2月进口额同比增长3.5%，2023年12月同比为0.2%。具体解读如下：一、1-2月出口额同比增长7.1%，超出市场预期，延续了去年四季度以来的改善势头。主要原因是近期外需有所改善，我国对美国、东盟等主要经济体出口增速大幅上扬，以及汽车出口增速保持高位。不过，伴随上年同期基数大幅抬升，3月出口额同比增速有可能转负。尽管今年发达经济体将普遍转向降息，全球贸易趋于回暖，但在全球经济增长乏力的前景下，我国出口恐难现持续大幅增长，外需对宏观经济的拉动作用不宜过度高估。另外，欧盟正在对中国出口增速较快的新能源汽车展开反补贴调查，具体进程和结果值得重点关注。着眼于推动外贸质升量稳，下一步政策面将加大对外贸出口企业的支持力度，重点是改善出口企业面临的政策和制度环境。以人民币计价，1-2月进、出口额同比增速分别为10.3%和6.7%，与同期以美元计价的增速差主要源于过去一年中人民币兑美元有所贬值。1、以美元计价，1-2月出口额同比增速为7.1%，较上年12月增速大幅加快4.8个百分点，超出市场普遍预期。在上年同期增速基数有所抬高的背景下，这主要源于今年开年出口增长动能较强。环比来看，今年1-2月出口额较去年12月增长73.9%，大幅高于过去10年平均52.3%的环比增长水平。背后有两个原因：首先是外需方面，1-2月以来摩根大通全球制造业PMI指数持续处于荣枯平衡线上方，结束了此前连续16个月的收缩状态，显示开年外需边际改善。可以看到，作为重要的商品出口国，1-2月越南、韩国出口也整体保持正增长势头，且增速较去年四季度有所加快。其次是商务部信息显示，今年春节前出现的出口小高峰一直延续到了春节期间，家电、汽车等重点产品出口订单好于预期。2、从主要出口目的地来看，开年我国对美国出口大幅改善，是拉动整体出口表现超预期的一个重要原因。1-2月我国对美出口额同比增长5.0%，在上年同期基数变化不大的背景下，同比增速较上年12月大幅加快11.9个百分点，主要与近期美国经济走势偏强，进口需求增长较快有关。数据显示，1-2月Markit美国制造业PMI指数都处于扩张区间，而此前曾连续两个月收缩。另外，这也可以从年初韩国对美国出口增速加快中得到印证。不过，1-2月我国对欧盟和日本出口增速继续处于低位，分别为-1.3%和-9.7%，与去年12月相比变化不大。可以看到，年初以来欧洲经济运行态势偏弱，继续影响对我国商品的进口需求；而近期我国对日本出口持续处于较大幅度下滑状态，源于当前日本经济增长主要由商品和服务出口推动，其国内制造业和消费偏弱，进口需求不振。发展中经济体方面，1-2月我国整体出口拉动最大的因素来自对我国头号贸易伙伴东盟的出口同比增长6.0%，在上年同期增速基数有所抬高的背景下，同比增速较去年12月大幅加快12.1个百分点。中国物流信息中心数据显示，2024年2月份亚洲制造业PMI为50.3%，较上月微幅下降0.1个百分点，连续2个月保持在50%以上，其中马来西亚、印度尼西亚、越南都呈改善态势。另外我们估计,RCEP(《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》)对我国与东盟贸易的促进效应进一步释放，也可能产生了一定积极影响。1-2月我国对印度出口同比大幅增长12.8%，增速较上年12月加快一倍；对俄罗斯出口同比也大幅增长12.5%。前者主要与印度经济增长动能较强、进口需求增加有关；后者原因与去年类似，主要是在国际制裁加剧背景下，俄罗斯将从欧洲等地的商品进口转向我国，这尤其体现在当前俄罗斯从我国进口汽车大幅增长等方面。3、1-2月汽车出口延续高位，出口新动能继续保持强势。1-2月汽车（包括底盘）出口量同比增速为22.1%，出口额同比增速为12.6%，主要受绝对基数水平大幅抬高影响，增速分别较上年12月放缓13.2和39.4个百分点，但出口额增速仍然明显高于整体出口额增长水平。背后是2021年以来，我国在新能源汽车领域实现“弯道超车”，加之具有突出的价格优势，在包括欧盟等发达经济体在内的全球新能源汽车市场的占比大幅提升，传统燃油汽车出口则在俄罗斯市场实现高速增长。4、展望未来，伴随基数大幅抬升，预计3月出口额同比增速有可能由正转负，预计将在-5.0%左右，且短期内难以转正。可以看到，2月官方制造业PMI指数中的新出口订单指数为46.3%，较上月下降0.9个百分点，降至2023年下半年以来的底部区域。我们判断，尽管今年发达经济体将普遍转向降息，全球贸易趋于回暖，但在全球经济增长乏力的前景下，我国出口恐难现持续大幅增长。预计2024年全年出口增速会在4.0%左右，外需对宏观经济的拉动作用不宜过度高估。今年政策面将加大对外贸出口的支持力度，着力改善出口企业面临的政策和制度环境。其中，今年我国将努力完成和东盟自贸区3.0版的谈判，完成与秘鲁的自贸协定升级谈判，还将和海湾合作委员会、新西兰、韩国、瑞士进行自贸谈判或者升级谈判。另外，针对当前增长较快的跨境电商出口，监管层也会有针对性地完善通关、税收、外汇等政策，加快构建适应跨境电商发展的供应链和生态圈，鼓励外贸新业态发展。值得注意的是，去年10月欧盟启动从中国进口新能源汽车反补贴调查，调查预计将在启动后的13个月内完成,而且可能在今年7月就开始征收临时关税，预计关税水平将从目前的10%升至20%，而美国也在酝酿类似措施。事实上，今年一些国家还有可能针对我国出口的太阳能组件启动类似的调查措施，或将对我国快速增长的“新三样（电动载人汽车、锂电池、太阳能电池）”出口带来较为严重的影响。二、1-2月进口额同比延续正增且增速较去年12月加快，主要与去年同期基数走低有关，同时，年初出口高增以及原油等部分大宗商品价格回升也对进口额增长起到一定推动作用。考虑到当前实际进口需求仍然偏弱，近期进口增速回升的趋势能否持续仍有待观察。以美元计价，2024年1-2月进口额同比增长3.5%，延续了去年12月的同比正增长势头，且增速加快了3.3个百分点。主要原因是去年同期基数较低——受疫情等因素影响，2023年1-2月进口额同比下降10.0%。从环比表现来看，1-2月累计进口额是去年12月1.76倍，在历年同期中处于较低水平。根据我们测算，2014-2023年10年间，1-2月进口额相比上年12月的倍数平均为1.84倍。这表明，今年1-2月我国进口额环比表现要小幅弱于季节性，同比增速超预期主要与低基数有关。这也反映于1-2月官方制造业PMI进口指数仍处较深收缩区间。从主要商品进口情况来看，（1）1-2月原油进口额同比增长2.8%，增速较去年12月加快7.3个百分点。由于OPEC+持续减产、IMF等主要机构上调2024年全球经济增速预期等因素提振国际油价回升，1-2月我国原油进口价格同比降幅收窄；同时，当期进口量同比也较去年12月有所提速，共同推动进口额同比增速加快。（2）铁矿石方面，1-2月铁矿石进口价格虽继续上扬，但因去年同期基数走高，同比涨幅较去年12月明显收敛，加之进口量同比也有所放缓，当期铁矿石进口额同比增速较去年12月大幅下滑25.8个百分点至22.8%。（3）集成电路方面，1-2月进口额同比增长15.3%，增速较去年12月大幅加快18.7个百分点，主要原因是去年同期进口量价基数都比较低，以及全球电子周期上行。今年1-2月铁矿石进口量同比增速明显加快、进口价格同比跌幅出现大幅收敛。（4）大豆方面，1-2月大豆进口量和进口价格同比降幅均有所扩大，拖累进口额同比降幅从去年12月的-19.1%扩大至-22.2%。整体上看，1-2月进口额同比延续正增且增速加快，这主要与去年同期基数走低有关。同时，考虑到我国对外贸易具有“大进大出”特征，加工贸易占比较高，年初出口高增也会带动进口增速加快。另外，近期原油等部分大宗商品价格回升也对进口额增长起到一定推动作用。不过，在房地产投资延续低迷、终端消费有待进一步提振背景下，当前国内进口需求仍然较弱，实质性增强的迹象尚不明显，这也意味着，近期进口增速回升的趋势能否持续仍有待观察。我们判断，3月节后制造业企业、基建等全面开工有望提振进口需求边际上行，但料难以抵消基数抬升对当月进口同比表现的下拉作用。预计3月进口额同比增速将较1-2月累计增速有所放缓，不排除小幅转负的可能。', 'content': '事件：根据海关部署公布的数据，以美元计价，2024年1-2月出口额同比增长7.1%，2023年12月同比为2.3%；1-2月进口额同比增长3.5%，2023年12月同比为0.2%。具体解读如下：一、1-2月出口额同比增长7.1%，超出市场预期，延续了去年四季度以来的改善势头。主要原因是近期外需有所改善，我国对美国、东盟等主要经济体出口增速大幅上扬，以及汽车出口增速保持高位。不过，伴随上年同期基数大幅抬升，3月出口额同比增速有可能转负。尽管今年发达经济体将普遍转向降息，全球贸易趋于回暖，但在全球经济增长乏力的前景下，我国出口恐难现持续大幅增长，外需对宏观经济的拉动作用不宜过度高估。另外，欧盟正在对中国出口增速较快的新能源汽车展开反补贴调查，具体进程和结果值得重点关注。着眼于推动外贸质升量稳，下一步政策面将加大对外贸出口企业的支持力度，重点是改善出口企业面临的政策和制度环境。以人民币计价，1-2月进、出口额同比增速分别为10.3%和6.7%，与同期以美元计价的增速差主要源于过去一年中人民币兑美元有所贬值。1、以美元计价，1-2月出口额同比增速为7.1%，较上年12月增速大幅加快4.8个百分点，超出市场普遍预期。在上年同期增速基数有所抬高的背景下，这主要源于今年开年出口增长动能较强。环比来看，今年1-2月出口额较去年12月增长73.9%，大幅高于过去10年平均52.3%的环比增长水平。背后有两个原因：首先是外需方面，1-2月以来摩根大通全球制造业PMI指数持续处于荣枯平衡线上方，结束了此前连续16个月的收缩状态，显示开年外需边际改善。可以看到，作为重要的商品出口国，1-2月越南、韩国出口也整体保持正增长势头，且增速较去年四季度有所加快。其次是商务部信息显示，今年春节前出现的出口小高峰一直延续到了春节期间，家电、汽车等重点产品出口订单好于预期。2、从主要出口目的地来看，开年我国对美国出口大幅改善，是拉动整体出口表现超预期的一个重要原因。1-2月我国对美出口额同比增长5.0%，在上年同期基数变化不大的背景下，同比增速较上年12月大幅加快11.9个百分点，主要与近期美国经济走势偏强，进口需求增长较快有关。数据显示，1-2月Markit美国制造业PMI指数都处于扩张区间，而此前曾连续两个月收缩。另外，这也可以从年初韩国对美国出口增速加快中得到印证。不过，1-2月我国对欧盟和日本出口增速继续处于低位，分别为-1.3%和-9.7%，与去年12月相比变化不大。可以看到，年初以来欧洲经济运行态势偏弱，继续影响对我国商品的进口需求；而近期我国对日本出口持续处于较大幅度下滑状态，源于当前日本经济增长主要由商品和服务出口推动，其国内制造业和消费偏弱，进口需求不振。发展中经济体方面，1-2月我国整体出口拉动最大的因素来自对我国头号贸易伙伴东盟的出口同比增长6.0%，在上年同期增速基数有所抬高的背景下，同比增速较去年12月大幅加快12.1个百分点。中国物流信息中心数据显示，2024年2月份亚洲制造业PMI为50.3%，较上月微幅下降0.1个百分点，连续2个月保持在50%以上，其中马来西亚、印度尼西亚、越南都呈改善态势。另外我们估计,RCEP(《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》)对我国与东盟贸易的促进效应进一步释放，也可能产生了一定积极影响。1-2月我国对印度出口同比大幅增长12.8%，增速较上年12月加快一倍；对俄罗斯出口同比也大幅增长12.5%。前者主要与印度经济增长动能较强、进口需求增加有关；后者原因与去年类似，主要是在国际制裁加剧背景下，俄罗斯将从欧洲等地的商品进口转向我国，这尤其体现在当前俄罗斯从我国进口汽车大幅增长等方面。3、1-2月汽车出口延续高位，出口新动能继续保持强势。1-2月汽车（包括底盘）出口量同比增速为22.1%，出口额同比增速为12.6%，主要受绝对基数水平大幅抬高影响，增速分别较上年12月放缓13.2和39.4个百分点，但出口额增速仍然明显高于整体出口额增长水平。背后是2021年以来，我国在新��源汽车领域实现“弯道超车”，加之具有突出的价格优势，在包括欧盟等发达经济体在内的全球新能源汽车市场的占比大幅提升，传统燃油汽车出口则在俄罗斯市场实现高速增长。4、展望未来，伴随基数大幅抬升，预计3月出口额同比增速有可能由正转负，预计将在-5.0%左右，且短期内难以转正。可以看到，2月官方制造业PMI指数中的新出口订单指数为46.3%，较上月下降0.9个百分点，降至2023年下半年以来的底部区域。我们判断，尽管今年发达经济体将普遍转向降息，全球贸易趋于回暖，但在全球经济增长乏力的前景下，我国出口恐难现持续大幅增长。预计2024年全年出口增速会在4.0%左右，外需对宏观经济的拉动作用不宜过度高估。今年政策面将加大对外贸出口的支持力度，着力改善出口企业面临的政策和制度环境。其中，今年我国将努力完成和东盟自贸区3.0版的谈判，完成与秘鲁的自贸协定升级谈判，还将和海湾合作委员会、新西兰、韩国、瑞士进行自贸谈判或者升级谈判。另外，针对当前增长较快的跨境电商出口，监管层也会有针对性地完善通关、税收、外汇等政策，加快构建适应跨境电商发展的供应链和生态圈，鼓励外贸新业态发展。值得注意的是，去年10月欧盟启动从中国进口新能源汽车反补贴调查，调查预计将在启动后的13个月内完成,而且可能在今年7月就开始征收临时关税，预计关税水平将从目前的10%升至20%，而美国也在酝酿类似措施。事实上，今年一些国家还有可能针对我国出口的太阳能组件启动类似的调查措施，或将对我国快速增长的“新三样（电动载人汽车、锂电池、太阳能电池）”出口带来较为严重的影响。二、1-2月进口额同比延续正增且增速较去年12月加快，主要与去年同期基数走低有关，同时，年初出口高增以及原油等部分大宗商品价格回升也对进口额增长起到一定推动作用。考虑到当前实际进口需求仍然偏弱，近期进口增速回升的趋势能否持续仍有待观察。以美元计价，2024年1-2月进口额同比增长3.5%，延续了去年12月的同比正增长势头，且增速加快了3.3个百分点。主要原因是去年同期基数较低——受疫情等因素影响，2023年1-2月进口额同比下降10.0%。从环比表现来看，1-2月累计进口额是去年12月1.76倍，在历年同期中处于较低水平。根据我们测算，2014-2023年10年间，1-2月进口额相比上年12月的倍数平均为1.84倍。这表明，今年1-2月我国进口额环比表现要小幅弱于季节性，同比增速超预期主要与低基数有关。这也反映于1-2月官方制造业PMI进口指数仍处较深收缩区间。从主要商品进口情况来看，（1）1-2月原油进口额同比增长2.8%，增速较去年12月加快7.3个百分点。由于OPEC+持续减产、IMF等主要机构上调2024年全球经济增速预期等因素提振国际油价回升，1-2月我国原油进口价格同比降幅收窄；同时，当期进口量同比也较去年12月有所提速，共同推动进口额同比增速加快。（2）铁矿石方面，1-2月铁矿石进口价格虽继续上扬，但因去年同期基数走高，同比涨幅较去年12月明显收敛，加之进口量同比也有所放缓，当期铁矿石进口额同比增速较去年12月大幅下滑25.8个百分点至22.8%。（3）集成电路方面，1-2月进口额同比增长15.3%，增速较去年12月大幅加快18.7个百分点，主要原因是去年同期进口量价基数都比较低，以及全球电子周期上行。今年1-2月铁矿石进口量同比增速明显加快、进口价格同比跌幅出现大幅收敛。（4）大豆方面，1-2月大豆进口量和进口价格同比降幅均有所扩大，拖累进口额同比降幅从去年12月的-19.1%扩大至-22.2%。整体上看，1-2月进口额同比延续正增且增速加快，这主要与去年同期基数走低有关。同时，考虑到我国对外贸易具有“大进大出”特征，加工贸易占比较高，年初出口高增也会带动进口增速加快。另外，近期原油等部分大宗商品价格回升也对进口额增长起到一定推动作用。不过，在房地产投资延续低迷、终端消费有待进一步提振背景下，当前国内进口需求仍然较弱，实质性增强的迹象尚不明显，这也意味着，近期进口增速回升的趋势能否持续仍有待观察。我们判断，3月节后制造业企业、基建等全面开工有望提振进口需求边际上行，但料难以抵消基数抬升对当月进口同比表现的下拉作用。预计3月进口额同比增速将较1-2月累计增速有所放缓，不排除小幅转负的可能。', 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'核心观点：我国乡村数字经济迈入新阶段，数字养殖重视度提升。我国自2015年开始对乡村数字经济探索，2021年以来进入深化阶段。2021年我国数字乡村发展水平已达39.1%，农业生产信息化率达25.4%，取得显著成效。畜禽养殖链为当前农业行业关注重点。在数字养殖方面，我国出台多项文件大力推动畜禽养殖行业向集约化、自动化、标准化、信息化、智能化方向转型。2021年我国畜禽养殖信息化率达34%，生猪和家禽养殖信息化率分别为36.9%和36.4%。数智化成为我国畜牧业转型升级、高质量发展的必然要求和发展趋势。我国养殖业处初级智能阶段，数字养殖助力降本增效。数字养殖是工业中智能制造理念向养殖业的迁移，本质上是一种全新的、复杂协同的知识自动化系统，是畜牧业的第三次革命。目前我国工厂化养猪处于初级智能阶段，农业机器人也处于起步阶段，但从市场供需和增长来看，2015年至今我国农业机器人始终保持供不应求的状态，2022年农业机器人市场规模约11.46亿元（同比+37.58%），未来我国农业机器人和数字养殖市场增长空间广阔。数字养殖转型升级的必要性在于改善我国畜牧业现存的诸多问题，例如我国中小规模养殖场占比高，其抗风险能力较弱；养殖信息化程度低；母猪生产效率指标较发达国家水平有较大差距（21年我国PSY均值18.3头，同期美国26.1头）；养殖成本方面，我国饲料成本、仔猪成本、人工成本均较发达国家水平有显著差距等。而数字养殖的效果在于能使劳动生产率提高30%以上，每头出栏生猪降低约150元成本，从而大幅提升我国畜牧业生产效率和产品质量。上市猪企发力数字养殖，牧原股份为数字化转型引领者。数字养殖的行业转型趋势为猪企的养殖场数智化升级带来了难得的发展机遇，有利于增强竞争优势、提高市场份额。上市猪企中，牧原股份、温氏股份、巨星农牧、神农集团、唐人神、新希望、大北农等均已开展数字养殖项目规划和建设，多数于2023年启动项目资金募集。其中牧原股份的数字养殖起步早、起点高、优势显著。牧原通过六大主体共同搭建数智化平台，22年智能装备累计接入160万台，累计服务猪群规模超6000万。从降本增效的具体成果看，数字养殖的应用使得牧原的母猪年提供断奶仔猪提高1.2头，头均药费降低41.79元；饲喂全程节约人工成本12.48元/头，增加利润24.89元/头；板下清粪机器人的使用预计可为10万全线场一年节省30万元的粪水处理费用等。投资建议：在数字时代背景下，生猪养殖模式与管理方式将迎来崭新的变革，人力依赖或将逐步减少，主观能动性问题亦将随之减少，猪群健康状况提升，带来养殖效率的全面升级。我国头部猪企中以牧原股份为领先代表，其一具备行业领先的成本控制能力；其二养殖规模行业首位，市占率由0.25%提升至8.78%。其三公司领先布局数字化养殖体系，数智化平台的运用是保证规模扩张下成本端有效控制的手段之一。同时公司持续引进数智化专业人才为后续更强大的数字养殖体系提供支撑。其四数据为未来核心驱动力，作为业内领先具备数据意识的猪企，将掌握更多的数据，实现更优迭代。基于上述分析，叠加考虑估值历史低位因素，可积极关注牧原股份（002714.SZ）。', 'content': \"Core point of view: my country's rural digital economy has entered a new stage, and digital farming has received increased attention. My country began to explore rural digital economy in 2015 and has entered a deepening stage since 2021. In 2021, my country's digital rural development level has reached 39.1%, and the informatization rate of agricultural production has reached 25.4%, achieving remarkable results. The livestock and poultry breeding chain is the focus of the current agricultural industry. In terms of digital breeding, my country has issued a number of documents to vigorously promote the transformation of the livestock and poultry breeding industry in the direction of intensification, automation, standardization, informatization, and intelligence. In 2021, the informatization rate of my country's livestock and poultry breeding will reach 34%, and the informatization rate of pig and poultry breeding will be 36.9% and 36.4% respectively. Digital intelligence has become an inevitable requirement and development trend for the transformation and upgrading and high-quality development of my country's animal husbandry industry. my country's breeding industry is at the primary stage of intelligence, and digital breeding helps reduce costs and increase efficiency. Digital breeding is the migration of intelligent manufacturing concepts in industry to the breeding industry. It is essentially a new, complex and collaborative knowledge automation system, and is the third revolution in animal husbandry. At present, my country's factory-based pig farming is in the primary intelligence stage, and agricultural robots are also in their infancy. However, from the perspective of market supply, demand and growth, my country's agricultural robots have always been in short supply since 2015. The agricultural robot market size in 2022 will be approximately 1.146 billion yuan ( +37.58% year-on-year), my country’s agricultural robot and digital breeding market has broad room for growth in the future. The necessity of digital breeding transformation and upgrading lies in improving many existing problems in my country's animal husbandry industry. For example, my country's small and medium-sized farms account for a high proportion and their ability to resist risks is weak; the degree of informatization in breeding is low; sow production efficiency indicators are lower than those in developed countries. There is a big gap (the average PSY in my country in 2021 was 18.3 heads, and the United States was 26.1 heads in the same period); in terms of breeding costs, my country's feed costs, piglet costs, and labor costs are all significantly different from the levels of developed countries. The effect of digital breeding is that it can increase labor productivity by more than 30% and reduce the cost of each pig for slaughter by about 150 yuan, thus greatly improving the production efficiency and product quality of my country's livestock industry. Listed pig companies are focusing on digital farming, and Muyuan Co., Ltd. is the leader in digital transformation. The industry transformation trend of digital farming has brought rare development opportunities to the digital and intelligent upgrade of pig farms, which is conducive to enhancing competitive advantages and increasing market share. Among the listed pig companies, Muyuan Co., Ltd., Wen's Co., Ltd., Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Shennong Group, Tangrenshen, New Hope, Dabeinong, etc. have all carried out digital breeding project planning and construction, and most will start project fund raising in 2023. Among them, Muyuan's digital farming started early, with a high starting point and significant advantages. Muyuan has jointly built a digital intelligence platform through six major entities. In 22 years, a total of 1.6 million units of intelligent equipment have been connected, and the cumulative number of pig herds served exceeds 60 million. Judging from the specific results of cost reduction and efficiency improvement, the application of digital breeding has enabled Muyuan’s sows to provide 1.2 more weaned piglets per year, and the average drug cost per head has been reduced by 41.79 yuan; the entire feeding process has saved labor costs of 12.48 yuan/head, and increased profits by 24.89 yuan. / head; the use of under-slab manure cleaning robots is expected to save 300,000 yuan a year in manure and water treatment costs for the entire 100,000-line site. Investment advice: In the context of the digital age, pig breeding models and management methods will usher in new changes. Manpower dependence may be gradually reduced, subjective initiative problems will also be reduced, and the health of the pig herds will be improved, bringing about a comprehensive improvement in breeding efficiency. upgrade. Among the top pig companies in my country, Muyuan Co., Ltd. is the leading representative. Firstly, it has industry-leading cost control capabilities; secondly, it ranks first in the industry in terms of breeding scale, with its market share increasing from 0.25% to 8.78%. The third company is taking the lead in laying out a digital breeding system, and the use of digital and intelligent platforms is one of the means to ensure effective cost control under scale expansion. At the same time, the company continues to introduce digital intelligence professionals to provide support for a more powerful digital breeding system in the future. The fourth data is the core driving force in the future. As a leading data-aware enterprise in the industry, it will master more data and achieve better iterations. Based on the above analysis and considering the factors of historically low valuation, you can actively pay attention to Muyuan Shares (002714.SZ).\", 'authorid': UUID('71940778-e8ec-575a-8e06-60a8ffce80d7'), 'sentimentScore': 0.5885467426851392, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'E2ENGBS0PSBT53TFQAH5CC4MLRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:44:03 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'E2ENGBS0PSBT53TFQAH5CC4MLRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "The size of tensor a (514) must match the size of tensor b (512) at non-singleton dimension 1\n", - "{'id': UUID('d528eff2-c7e1-5d7e-b739-9de9dcec80ec'), 'title': '2024 Overseas Economic Annual Outlook: Recession continues to be delayed, overseas enters the channel of interest rate cuts', 'author': 'Kangmingyi', 'orgName': '东兴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80114781', 'orgSName': '东兴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSW2syV/v7kvh1gxB71uhH0Q=', 'researcher': '康明怡', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000270257'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSW2syV/v7kvh1gxB71uhH0Q=', 'site': 'Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东兴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626753659_1.pdf?1710442406000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626753659_1.pdf?1710442406000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '2024 Overseas Economic Annual Outlook: Recession continues to be delayed, overseas enters the channel of interest rate cuts', 'originalAuthor': '康明怡', 'originalContent': '提纲海外衰退推迟：消费动能仍在，仍可支撑短期经济，投资短期止跌略有回升。实体经济：全球商品库存周期开始正常化，美国上半年衰退概率不大。货币政策：最快二季度下半程降息（先看50bp）。美股：短期没有明显风险点；长期再次出现趋势性泡沫，2023年年底从中性谨慎转为中性。美债：下限3.65~3.85%。风险提示：全球通胀超预期导致全球衰退。', 'content': 'Outline: Overseas recession is postponed: consumption momentum is still there and can still support the short-term economy, and investment has stopped falling in the short-term and has rebounded slightly. Real economy: The global commodity inventory cycle has begun to normalize, and the probability of a U.S. recession in the first half of the year is unlikely. Monetary policy: Cut interest rates in the second half of the second quarter at the earliest (look at 50bp first). US stocks: There are no obvious risk points in the short term; trend bubbles will appear again in the long term, and will turn from neutral and cautious to neutral at the end of 2023. U.S. bonds: lower limit 3.65~3.85%. Risk warning: Global inflation exceeds expectations, leading to a global recession.', 'authorid': UUID('3f2797dd-6eba-5070-8041-b1ca733a1529'), 'sentimentScore': -0.26351360976696014, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'A11MMK9IGO74S1CIV2LE0K4REBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:44:08 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'A11MMK9IGO74S1CIV2LE0K4REBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1be88e2c-4580-5b1e-9a79-b67eeda84102'), 'title': '2024 US Election Express (4): The battle for the White House has begun early. Will Trump and Biden withdraw midway?', 'author': 'Wei Wei, Zhou Chang', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSeJiuAAlvXahQ2mD74UUmJE=', 'researcher': '魏伟,周畅', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000191821', '11000443154'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSeJiuAAlvXahQ2mD74UUmJE=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626753658_1.pdf?1710442609000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626753658_1.pdf?1710442609000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '2024 US Election Express (4): The battle for the White House has begun early. Will Trump and Biden withdraw midway?', 'originalAuthor': '魏伟,周畅', 'originalContent': '特朗普与拜登各自提前锁定党内提名资格，但初选过程也凸显出双方的竞选隐忧。截止当地时间3月12日，特朗普获得1228票，超过共和党总票数的一半1215票，拜登获得2101票，超过民主党总票数的一半1968票，二者各自提前锁定党内提名资格，并将在今年7-8月两党全国代表大会上正式成为总统提名人。此次初选是近代美国大选中最无悬念的初选之一，但在初选过程中也凸显出双方的竞选隐忧：一则，民主党初选中，继密歇根州发起“倾听密歇根”运动带动约13%的密歇根居民投“不表态”选项，后续多州居民选择支持“不表态”选项以表达对拜登在巴以冲突中亲以立场的不满，其中明尼苏达州“不表态”选项支持率接近19%，在该州拜登赢得了75票中的64票，而“未承诺”的投票选项赢得了11票，最终民主党内“未承诺”选项共获得20票，指向后续巴以冲突、俄乌冲突是否得以妥善处理将对拜登的竞选过程产生较大影响。此外，在美属萨摩亚州初选中，拜登以40票对51票的结果败给了另一位年轻候选人贾森·帕尔默，标志着拜登在本届大选党内初选中迄今为止首次失利，一定程度上体现出部分民众对拜登的不满。二则，共和党内，在“超级星期二”中约30%的共和党选民通过投票给其他候选人的方式表达对特朗普的不满，此部分选民或有可能在11月大选日中影响特朗普得票率。', 'content': 'Trump and Biden each secured their party nomination qualifications in advance, but the primary process also highlighted the campaign concerns of both parties. As of March 12, local time, Trump had received 1,228 votes, more than half of the Republican Party\\'s total votes (1,215 votes), and Biden had received 2,101 votes, more than half of the Democratic Party\\'s total votes (1,968 votes). The two had each locked in their party nomination qualifications in advance, and He will officially become the presidential nominee at the bipartisan national conventions in July-August this year. This primary election is one of the most unsuspicious in modern American elections, but the primary process also highlights the campaign concerns of both parties: First, in the Democratic primary, following the launch of the \"Listen to Michigan\" campaign in Michigan, About 13% of Michigan residents voted for the “no stance” option. Subsequently, residents in many states chose to support the “no stance” option to express their dissatisfaction with Biden’s pro-Israel stance on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Among them, Minnesota’s support rate for the “no stance” option Nearly 19%, Biden won 64 of the 75 votes in the state, and the \"uncommitted\" voting option won 11 votes. In the end, the \"uncommitted\" option in the Democratic Party received a total of 20 votes, pointing to the subsequent Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict can be properly handled will have a greater impact on Biden\\'s campaign. In addition, in the American Samoa primary, Biden lost to another young candidate, Jason Palmer, 40 votes to 51, marking Biden’s first victory in the party’s primary in this election. This is the first defeat so far in the election, which to some extent reflects the dissatisfaction of some people with Biden. Second, within the Republican Party, about 30% of Republican voters expressed their dissatisfaction with Trump by voting for other candidates on Super Tuesday. This group of voters may influence Trump on the November election day. Vote percentage.', 'authorid': UUID('34e7baf4-e205-5137-b5ef-d1ca6bacf118'), 'sentimentScore': 0.0561908483505249, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'K0ED9OFBD46NTNANI690N4PRBBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:44:11 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'K0ED9OFBD46NTNANI690N4PRBBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('cf8d09d4-493f-56be-8ad0-24104d9e7cc1'), 'title': 'Commentary on U.S. February CPI data: U.S. inflation is still sticky and the window for interest rate cuts is narrow', 'author': 'Kangmingyi', 'orgName': '东兴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80114781', 'orgSName': '东兴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSaErKvYQKkbspLkB4hXOJj8=', 'researcher': '康明怡', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000270257'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSaErKvYQKkbspLkB4hXOJj8=', 'site': 'Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东兴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626727747_1.pdf?1710434870000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626727747_1.pdf?1710434870000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on U.S. February CPI data: U.S. inflation is still sticky and the window for interest rate cuts is narrow', 'originalAuthor': '康明怡', 'originalContent': '事件：美国2月CPI环比0.4%，预期0.4%，前值0.3%；同比3.2%，预期3.1%，前值3.1%。核心CPI环比0.4%，预期0.3%，前值0.4%；同比3.8%，预期37%，前值3.9%。主要观点：1、住宅价格环比下降，但没有趋势性下降的证据；非住宅服务价格环比并未减速，粘性仍需时间。2、降息节点：首次降息不会早于5月的观点得到印证，参考时间节点可为核心CPI环比跌落0.3%平台。3、降息幅度：首先考虑降息50bp，更多降息需后续数据支持。4、降息窗口：窗口较窄，三四季度为传统消费旺季，降息过晚可能会遇到经济尚可但通胀回落放缓的不利降息的局面。5、维持美国十年期国债利率下限3.65~3.85%，上限4.35~4.6%；美股维持短期没有明显风险点，长期中性。数据方面，房屋和汽油价格贡献了CPI环比的60%。能源价格环比0.4%，各类分项均有所上涨；食品稳定。核心通胀分项方面，2月非住宅环比增长显著的有机票3.6%（前值1.4%），车险0.9%，其他上涨的有服饰、休闲娱乐、二手车；下降的有医疗0（前值0.5%）、个人护理-0.5%（前值0.6%）、家装-0.1%、新车-0.1%。2月核心通胀同比3.8%，房屋5.7%，贡献了核心通胀的三分之二，其他显著增加的有车险20.6%，医疗1.4%，休闲娱乐2.1%，个人护理4.2%。住宅价格环比增速未见趋势性下降，非住宅服务类价格环比也仍未减速。商品价格结束9个月的下跌趋势，2月环比增速回升至0.1%（图7）。住宅环比虽低于上月（0.4%，前值0.6%），但从去年3月开始一直在0.4~0.6%这一平台震荡，尚未有进一步回落的趋势（图7）。非住宅服务类价格维持在2022年10月以来的最高位0.6%，与服务业就业仍旧紧绷相吻合（图7）。叠加商品环比止跌，带动非住宅核心通胀环比略突破2023年5月以来的平台（0.3%vs0.2%）（图7）。过早过度降息会进一步增加服务价格的粘性。降息背景下，通胀回落趋势不变，但可能更为缓慢。由于原油价格稳定（图13），短期内通胀不会有实质性压力。住宅价格端，房贷利率随着美十债利率略下跌，房价反弹（图8）；供给端，住宅市场存量房屋数太少，住宅市场处于紧平衡状态；收入端，失业率较低，三重因素均支撑房价的再次反弹。随着加息周期结束，下半年进入降息通道，房价仍有支撑，预计核心通胀回落较通胀更为缓慢。我们关于降息节奏的观点逐步得到印证：即最早不会早于5月。维持若要避免后期过早衰退，停留在5.25%上方的时间不宜过长的观点。关于降息节点，1、2月非农和通胀均较强，一季度降息可能不大已被市场接受，目前市场预期首次降息为6月。无论劳动力市场还是房地产市场，虽有所缓和但仍处于紧绷状态，叠加拜登政府推出的基建法案，建筑业也进入相对繁荣期，过早降息可能会引起后期通胀反弹。降息时间节点可以参考核心CPI环比跌落当前0.3%这一平台的时间点，比如连续2个月不高于0.2%（图6）。关于降息幅度：首先考虑降息50bp，更多降息需后续数据支持。近期鲍威尔表示降息临近，认为目前的政策利率水平明显高于中性利率水平。我们在2020年疫情开始时就提出，随着地产周期复苏，中性利率可能有所抬升，即目前的政策利率水平虽处于限制性区域，但可能离中性利率并不太远。鉴于地产市场已摆脱08年次贷危机阴影，恢复了对利率的敏感度，当前地产市场处于紧平衡状态，而非疲软。这意味着也不能快速降息太多，目前市场对降息幅度预期过于乐观。当经济特别是地产开始恢复对利率的敏感度时，降息幅度应更为谨慎。此外，最佳的降息窗口在二季度末三季度初。由于美国是消费主导的经济体，三四季度为传统消费旺季，若一二季度不出现衰退，则大概率三四季度经济表现尚可。若三四季度消费尚可，则通胀存在反弹压力。降息拖到三季度后期至年尾，可能会遇到通胀下行趋势减弱而经济增速维持一定水平这种不利降息的局面。美国十年期国债利率下限维持3.65~3.85%，上限4.35~4.6%（图12）。目前美十债利率水平隐含的降息幅度为50bp左右（图12，以一年期国债与FFR利差衡量）。随着通胀中枢以及GDP增长中枢上移，��十债很难回到2008~2022年间的长期低利率水平。股市方面，美国短期经济衰退风险不大，实体经济投资止跌，叠加AI技术突破，股市短期风险不大。但长期泡沫再次出现，类似1997-2000年科技泡沫时期。历次长期趋势的泡沫湮灭均与货币政策收紧有关，鉴于美联储开始进入降息通道，我们在2023年年底对长期趋势的看法从中性谨慎转为中性，中性是对泡沫的警惕，去掉谨慎是目前尚没有货币政策导致的流动性问题。风险提示：海外经济衰退。', 'content': 'Event: The U.S. CPI in February was 0.4% month-on-month, expected 0.4%, and the previous value was 0.3%; year-on-year, it was 3.2%, expected 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.1%. Core CPI was 0.4% month-on-month, expected to be 0.3%, and the previous value was 0.4%; year-on-year, it was 3.8%, expected to be 37%, and the previous value was 3.9%. Main points: 1. Residential prices declined month-on-month, but there is no evidence of a trend decline; non-residential service prices did not slow down month-on-month, and it will still take time to become sticky. 2. Interest rate cut node: The view that the first interest rate cut will not be earlier than May has been confirmed. The reference time node can be the core CPI falling 0.3% month-on-month platform. 3. Amount of interest rate cut: First consider cutting interest rates by 50bp, and more interest rate cuts will need to be supported by subsequent data. 4. The window for interest rate cuts: The window is narrow. The third and fourth quarters are the traditional peak seasons for consumption. If you cut interest rates too late, you may encounter an unfavorable situation of cutting interest rates when the economy is still good but inflation has slowed down. 5. Maintain the lower limit of the U.S. ten-year Treasury bond interest rate at 3.65~3.85% and the upper limit at 4.35~4.6%; U.S. stocks maintain no obvious short-term risk points and are neutral in the long term. In terms of data, housing and gasoline prices contributed 60% of the CPI month-on-month. Energy prices were 0.4% month-on-month, and all sub-categories increased; food prices were stable. In terms of core inflation sub-items, non-residential inflation increased significantly in February by 3.6% month-on-month (previous value: 1.4%), auto insurance increased by 0.9%, and others increased by clothing, leisure and entertainment, and second-hand cars; medical care decreased by 0.0% (previous value) 0.5%), personal care -0.5% (previous value: 0.6%), home improvement -0.1%, new cars -0.1%. Core inflation in February was 3.8% year-on-year, and housing was 5.7%, contributing two-thirds of core inflation. Other significant increases included auto insurance 20.6%, medical care 1.4%, leisure and entertainment 2.1%, and personal care 4.2%. The month-on-month growth rate of residential prices has not shown a downward trend, and the price of non-residential services has not slowed down month-on-month. Commodity prices ended a nine-month downward trend, and the month-on-month growth rate rebounded to 0.1% in February (Figure 7). Although the month-on-month housing price index was lower than the previous month (0.4%, the previous value was 0.6%), it has been fluctuating at the 0.4~0.6% platform since March last year, and has not yet shown a further downward trend (Figure 7). Non-residential service prices remained at 0.6%, the highest level since October 2022, consistent with employment in the service industry remaining tight (Figure 7). Superimposed commodities stopped falling month-on-month, driving non-residential core inflation to slightly exceed the platform since May 2023 (0.3% vs. 0.2%) month-on-month (Figure 7). Cutting interest rates too early and excessively will further increase the stickiness of service prices. In the context of interest rate cuts, the downward trend in inflation remains unchanged, but may be slower. As crude oil prices are stable (Figure 13), there will be no substantial pressure on inflation in the short term. On the residential price side, mortgage interest rates have fallen slightly along with U.S. bond rates, and house prices have rebounded (Figure 8); on the supply side, there are too few houses in the housing market, and the housing market is in a tight balance; on the income side, the unemployment rate is low, and three factors All support another rebound in housing prices. With the end of the interest rate hike cycle and the entry into the interest rate cut channel in the second half of the year, housing prices will still be supported, and core inflation is expected to fall more slowly than inflation. Our view on the pace of interest rate cuts has been gradually confirmed: that is, it will not be earlier than May at the earliest. We maintain the view that if we want to avoid a premature recession in the later period, it should not stay above 5.25% for too long. Regarding the interest rate cut node, non-farm payrolls and inflation were both strong in January and February. The possibility of an interest rate cut in the first quarter has been accepted by the market. The market currently expects the first interest rate cut to be in June. Both the labor market and the real estate market have eased but are still in a tight state. Coupled with the infrastructure bill introduced by the Biden administration, the construction industry has also entered a period of relative prosperity. Premature interest rate cuts may cause a later rebound in inflation. The time point for interest rate cuts can refer to the time point when the core CPI drops to the current platform of 0.3% month-on-month, such as not being higher than 0.2% for 2 consecutive months (Figure 6). Regarding the extent of interest rate cuts: First consider cutting interest rates by 50bp, and more interest rate cuts will need to be supported by subsequent data. Powell recently stated that a rate cut is imminent and believes that the current policy interest rate level is significantly higher than the neutral interest rate level. We proposed at the beginning of the epidemic in 2020 that as the real estate cycle recovers, the neutral interest rate may rise. That is, although the current policy interest rate level is in a restrictive area, it may not be too far from the neutral interest rate. Given that the real estate market has shaken off the shadow of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and has regained its sensitivity to interest rates, the current real estate market is in a state of tight balance rather than weakness. This means that interest rates cannot be cut too much quickly. The market is currently too optimistic about the extent of interest rate cuts. When the economy, especially real estate, begins to regain its sensitivity to interest rates, interest rate cuts should be more cautious. In addition, the best window for interest rate cuts is at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter. Since the United States is a consumption-led economy, the third and fourth quarters are the traditional peak consumption seasons. If there is no recession in the first and second quarters, there is a high probability that the economic performance in the third and fourth quarters will be acceptable. If consumption in the third and fourth quarters is acceptable, there will be pressure for inflation to rebound. If the interest rate cut is delayed until the late third quarter to the end of the year, the downward trend in inflation may weaken while economic growth maintains a certain level, which is an unfavorable situation for interest rate cuts. The lower limit of the U.S. ten-year Treasury bond interest rate remains at 3.65~3.85%, and the upper limit is 4.35~4.6% (Figure 12). The current U.S. ten bond interest rates imply an interest rate cut of about 50bp (Figure 12, measured by the spread between one-year Treasury bonds and FFR). As the center of inflation and GDP growth moves upward, it will be difficult for U.S. Treasury bonds to return to the long-term low interest rate levels between 2008 and 2022. In terms of the stock market, the short-term risk of economic recession in the United States is not great. Investment in the real economy has stopped falling. Combined with breakthroughs in AI technology, the short-term risk of the stock market is not great. But the long-term bubble has reappeared, similar to the tech bubble period of 1997-2000. The annihilation of bubbles in previous long-term trends is all related to the tightening of monetary policy. In view of the fact that the Federal Reserve has begun to enter the interest rate cut channel, our view of the long-term trend will change from neutral and cautious to neutral at the end of 2023. Neutral means being alert to bubbles, and removing caution is There are currently no liquidity problems caused by monetary policy. Risk warning: Overseas economic recession.', 'authorid': UUID('3f2797dd-6eba-5070-8041-b1ca733a1529'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9074981044977903, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'R2COQB1HT7MKQT7I5MQAUG166VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:44:14 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'R2COQB1HT7MKQT7I5MQAUG166VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9421fa78-5324-5174-9aec-16a645cc89dd'), 'title': 'Comments on price data in February 2024: CPI returns to positive, PPI is weak', 'author': 'Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli', 'orgName': '上海证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000155', 'orgSName': '上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSehgTGHzoFRmhIN0yMfpXuk=', 'researcher': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172617', '11000235839'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSehgTGHzoFRmhIN0yMfpXuk=', 'site': 'Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '上海���券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626723750_1.pdf?1710424565000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626723750_1.pdf?1710424565000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on price data in February 2024: CPI returns to positive, PPI is weak', 'originalAuthor': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'originalContent': '主要观点CPI回正，PPI稳中偏弱2月CPI受春节效应影响，食品以及出行娱乐等服务价格上涨突出，带动CPI由负转正，大幅反弹。并且由于服务类价格的上涨，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅比上月扩大0.8个百分点，创2022年2月以来最高涨幅。工业品价格走势则延续惯性，在基数效应下同比降幅略有扩大，稳中偏弱。主要行业中，化学制品、黑色金属冶炼、石油、电气机械等行业降幅扩大，煤炭、非金属制品以及通信电子设备价格均有不同程度下降。市场有望走稳回暖我们认为宏观环境变化为我国资本市场运行步入平稳回暖的新阶段奠定了基础。我们认为，在政策激励和经济韧性影响下，中国经济运行平稳态势不变，随着政策效应逐渐呈现，2024年中国经济和资本市场运行或将演绎双回暖格局。我们认为，未来“宏观平稳、微观改善”的宏观运行趋势，有利于资本市场走稳回暖。宽松政策仍有空间受春节假期刺激，CPI重新回正，但PPI运行仍然偏弱。春节因素消退后，CPI或将再度走弱。价格走势仍将延续我们一直秉持的观点：标杆商品猪肉延续稳中偏弱，大宗商品价格因经济偏软也呈现偏弱走势。我们认为，当前价格低迷并非周期性的，主要反映经济结构面临转型下，传统商品结构价格的疲软态势。基于经济趋势和产业周期状况，我们认为消费品走势平稳依旧，工业品延续稳中偏弱，基数效应下24年都将缓慢回升。我们认为经济平稳中的通胀下行走势，或带来货币增速的后撤；价格运行稳中偏低的态势，也为宽松货币政策创造了空间，预计1-2Q内调降回购利率5BP的降息举措或有发生、2-3Q内降准25BP也是大概率事件。随着中国经济运行的国内外环境改变，推动融资成本下行的降准、降息等政策工具仍将延续。风险提示俄乌冲突、中东冲突等地缘政治事件恶化，国际金融形势改变；中国通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。', 'content': 'Main point: CPI returned to positive, while PPI was stable but weak. CPI in February was affected by the Spring Festival effect. Prices of food, travel and entertainment and other services increased significantly, driving CPI from negative to positive and rebounding sharply. And due to the increase in service prices, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, the highest increase since February 2022. The price trend of industrial products continued its inertia, and the year-on-year decline slightly expanded due to the base effect, which was stable but weak. Among the major industries, the decline in chemical products, ferrous metal smelting, petroleum, electrical machinery and other industries expanded, and the prices of coal, non-metallic products and communication electronic equipment all fell to varying degrees. The market is expected to stabilize and pick up. We believe that changes in the macro environment have laid the foundation for my country\\'s capital market to enter a new stage of steady recovery. We believe that under the influence of policy incentives and economic resilience, China\\'s economic performance remains stable. As the policy effects gradually emerge, China\\'s economy and capital market operations may perform a double recovery pattern in 2024. We believe that the future macro operation trend of \"macro stability and micro improvement\" will be conducive to the stabilization and recovery of the capital market. There is still room for easing policies. Stimulated by the Spring Festival holiday, the CPI has returned to positive levels, but the PPI operation is still weak. After the Spring Festival factors subside, CPI may weaken again. The price trend will continue to be the view we have always held: the benchmark commodity pork continues to be stable but weak, and commodity prices are also showing a weak trend due to the soft economy. We believe that the current price downturn is not cyclical, but mainly reflects the weakening price trend of traditional commodity structure as the economic structure faces transformation. Based on economic trends and industrial cycles, we believe that the trend of consumer goods remains stable, while industrial products continue to be stable and weak, and will slowly rebound in 24 years under the base effect. We believe that the downward trend of inflation in a stable economy may bring about a retreat in monetary growth; the stable and low price trend also creates space for loose monetary policy. It is expected that the repurchase rate will be lowered by 5BP in 1-2Q. Interest rate cuts may occur, and a 25BP reserve requirement ratio cut within 2-3Q is also a high probability event. As the domestic and international environment for China\\'s economic operation changes, policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts that promote downward financing costs will continue. Risks suggest that geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East conflict have worsened, and the international financial situation has changed; China\\'s inflation has risen beyond expectations, and China\\'s monetary policy has changed beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('23836b0d-75e0-5a50-a109-862fde53e3bf'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8925097733736038, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'H5BT85B96N3LD42R81DJS995OBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:44:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'H5BT85B96N3LD42R81DJS995OBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7987a7ee-e645-52e5-9450-83bcea4db4df'), 'title': 'Macro View: Falling Inflation Isn’t Smooth Sailing', 'author': 'Huang Fusheng, Li Qi, Gao Xiaojie', 'orgName': '中邮证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80036717', 'orgSName': '中邮证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankScrO2GKcqQqrGQf12MncLuY=', 'researcher': '黄付生,李起,高晓洁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172600', '11000440637', '11000460131'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankScrO2GKcqQqrGQf12MncLuY=', 'site': 'China Post Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中邮证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626722984_1.pdf?1710419327000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626722984_1.pdf?1710419327000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro View: Falling Inflation Isn’t Smooth Sailing', 'originalAuthor': '黄付生,李起,高晓洁', 'originalContent': '核心观点2月美国CPI略超预期的主要因素在于能源价格降幅的收窄，其他主要分项，尤其是核心CPI同比较上月走低。但我们认为，美国通胀未来仍然存在隐忧。首先是就业市场并未出现明显的松动，时薪增速和工作时长增速一降一升尚无明确方向。其次房价和房租的反弹后续或延迟传递至持续走低的住房租金分项。最后，当前生产资料价格指数环比出现小幅回升，叠加2023年2季度PPI基数较低，我国“再通胀”有望实现，那么美国未来商品价格的下降将面临更大的阻力。短期数据的好坏不易线性外推，定价通胀顺势下行或为时过早。风险提示：美国就业市场超预期走弱；我国经济基本面再次走弱；国家大宗商品价格超预期下降；美国房价超预期回落；我国稳增长政策力度和效果不及预期。', 'content': 'Core view: The main factor behind the slightly higher-than-expected U.S. CPI in February was the narrowing of the decline in energy prices. Other major components, especially core CPI, fell compared with last month. However, we believe that there are still hidden concerns about U.S. inflation in the future. The first is that the job market has not seen significant relaxation, and there is no clear direction for the growth rate of hourly wages and working hours to rise and fall. Secondly, the rebound in house prices and rents may be later transmitted to the housing rent component that continues to fall. Finally, the current price index for means of production has rebounded slightly from the previous quarter. Coupled with the low PPI base in the second quarter of 2023, my country\\'s \"reflation\" is expected to be realized, so the future decline in commodity prices in the United States will face greater resistance. The quality of short-term data cannot be easily extrapolated linearly, and it may be premature to price inflation downwards. Risk warning: The U.S. job market weakened more than expected; my country\\'s economic fundamentals weakened again; national commodity prices fell more than expected; U.S. housing prices fell more than expected; the strength and effectiveness of my country\\'s stabilizing growth policies were less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('e2348d66-fa4f-5ba2-ba82-ccc397343672'), 'sentimentScore': -0.92231011018157, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'CNQDQGL3O19TRO5KFFV5DUKFPVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:44:19 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'CNQDQGL3O19TRO5KFFV5DUKFPVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c9b749d0-64a1-5b9c-ad44-83ea1dc66886'), 'title': 'Central Bank Operation Daily', 'author': 'Li Mingyu', 'orgName': '新湖期货股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80030099', 'orgSName': '新湖期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSRCxH18PQ3zKXhX1SzxbE/w=', 'researcher': '李明玉', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197321'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSRCxH18PQ3zKXhX1SzxbE/w=', 'site': 'Xinhu Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '新湖期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626713591_1.pdf?1710409808000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626713591_1.pdf?1710409808000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Central Bank Operation Daily', 'originalAuthor': '李明玉', 'originalContent': '公开市场操作：3月14日中国央行今日进行30亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.80%，与此前持平。因今日有100亿元7天期逆回购到期，当日实现净回笼70亿元。MLF操作：今日央行无MLF投放与操作，中标利率为2.50%，与此前一致PSL操作：今日央行无PSL投放与操作。TMLF：今日无TMLF到期与操作。国库定存操作：今日无国库定存到期及操作。', 'content': \"Open market operations: On March 14, the People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 3 billion yuan today, with the winning interest rate being 1.80%, the same as before. Because 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos expired today, a net withdrawal of 7 billion yuan was achieved that day. MLF operation: There is no MLF placement or operation by the central bank today, and the winning interest rate is 2.50%, which is consistent with the previous PSL operation: There is no PSL placement or operation by the central bank today. TMLF: There are no TMLF expirations and operations today. Treasury fixed deposit operations: There are no treasury fixed deposit expirations and operations today.\", 'authorid': UUID('06615761-5e26-57d2-b056-2b9f0d8913bd'), 'sentimentScore': 0.02577984146773815, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'NGSLTJ9UTFQMOBRAFLF0ACOHBRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:44:21 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'NGSLTJ9UTFQMOBRAFLF0ACOHBRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b147319d-3004-52fb-9650-c33c27f006bf'), 'title': 'U.S. inflation remained resilient in February and may have a neutral impact on the decision to cut interest rates', 'author': 'Jin Xiaowen', 'orgName': '浦银国际证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '81070432', 'orgSName': '浦银国际证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSSnpzNeorwYDhOZqzyHvjdo=', 'researcher': '金晓雯', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000442747'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSSnpzNeorwYDhOZqzyHvjdo=', 'site': 'Shanghai Pudong International Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '浦银国际证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626704982_1.pdf?1710409310000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626704982_1.pdf?1710409310000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. inflation remained resilient in February and may have a neutral impact on the decision to cut interest rates', 'originalAuthor': '金晓雯', 'originalContent': '美国核心环比通胀率2月大致持平，但强于预期。环比来看，核心通胀回落0.03个百分点到0.36%，略高于市场预期的0.3%。整体CPI环比增速继续上升0.14个百分点到0.44%，能源价格的大幅反弹是主要原因，而食品价格基本持平。按同比看，美国整体CPI小幅上升0.1个百分点到3.2%，核心CPI小幅下滑0.1个百分点到3.8%（图表2）。从环比细分数据看，核心服务CPI（尤其是住房）仍是支撑核心CPI韧性的最重要因素（图表1）：核心商品价格反弹（2月：0.11%，1月：-0.32%）。服装和运输价格的反弹是主要推动力。尤其是二手车价格在1月环比下跌3.4%之后2月反弹0.5%。不过两者的反弹从历史数据来看均不一定能持续（图表3）。在商品价格方面，还需警惕红海事件的影响。住房价格环比增速2月下滑到0.43%（1月：0.63%）。由于业主等价租金中各类住房比重在今年1月调整，1月的业主等价租金环比CPI上涨到0.56%。2月该项终于回归到约0.4%的相对于1月前数据类似的稳定水平。正如我们所预测的，1月超强的外宿价格并不持续，2月外宿环比CPI下滑到0.15%（1月：1.78%）。租金CPI原先基本稳定滞后房价变化约1年，但是最近几个月两者的联系似乎有��减弱。不过不论如何，我们预计住房相关价格今年仍会偏高，影响通胀下行速度。除住房外核心服务价格（超级核心服务CPI）增速明显减慢，但仍保持较高水平（2月：0.5%，1月：0.7%）。或许受油价反弹影响，机票价格2月再升3.57%（1月环比：1.40%），拉高整体运输服务价格。在劳动力成本虽有下降但仍偏高的背景下，娱乐和教育价格环比增速仍较高。不过医疗护理价格明显下降。与此同时，2月非农报告印证我们劳动力市场温和收紧的趋势的判断。此前，1月远超预期的非农新增就业引起市场担忧，不过我们当时就判断1月年度季节调整可能是主要原因。将去年12月和今年1月两个月的数据加起来下修高达16.7万人。虽然2月新增就业27.5万超过了市场20万人左右的预期（图表4），但是其他劳动力市场指标均指向温和收紧：失业率在连续三个月维持在3.7%后在2月上升0.2个百分点到3.9%（图表6）。时薪环比增速下滑0.38个百分点到0.15%（图表5）。周度的持续领取失业金人数持续呈向上趋势（图表7）。我们维持核心通胀下行道路仍将缓慢且有波折的基本观点。坚挺的核心服务价格CPI仍是影响整体核心通胀下行的主要阻力。往前看，业主等价租金的权重调整可能引发该分项CPI更多变数，不过整体而言我们认为住房价格今年或仍偏高。劳动力市场虽然继续温和收紧，但是在未实现显著收紧之前，排除了住房价格之外的超级核心服务CPI下行或依然缓慢。核心通胀在今年年底或难回到2%的目标水平。然而本次通胀数据对美联储的降息决议或影响不大。有几个数据细节或导致美联储对再通胀放松警惕：1月突增的住房CPI（尤其是业主等价租金）回归正轨，超级核心服务CPI虽然依然偏高，但是也显著下滑。此外需要注意的是，2月住房价格对核心CPI环比增速的贡献高达54%，而在美联储更为重视的核心PCE价格指数中，住房的权重要低很多（参见：月度宏观洞察：美国经济软着陆或变成硬着陆？）。2月更为全面的通胀情况还有待3月底PCE价格数据的发布。总而言之，我们认为本次通胀数据并不会影响美联储目前既定的降息路径选择。在3月19-20日的议息会议中，我们预计美联储不会降息，并且会维持此前12月作出的政策利率预测不变（美联储预测全年降息75个基点）。届时美联储对于降息问题的表述以及季度经济展望发布或给降息路径提供更明确线索。风险提示：美联储未及时对经济走弱做出反应而引起经济衰退，提早降息导致通胀率居高不下和经济过热。', 'content': \"U.S. core month-on-month inflation was roughly flat in February but stronger than expected. On a month-on-month basis, core inflation fell by 0.03 percentage points to 0.36%, slightly higher than market expectations of 0.3%. The overall CPI growth rate continued to increase by 0.14 percentage points to 0.44%. The sharp rebound in energy prices was the main reason, while food prices were basically flat. On a year-on-year basis, the overall U.S. CPI increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 3.2%, and the core CPI decreased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% (Chart 2). Looking at the month-on-month breakdown, core service CPI (especially housing) is still the most important factor supporting the resilience of core CPI (Chart 1): core commodity prices rebounded (February: 0.11%, January: -0.32%). Rebounding apparel and shipping prices were the main drivers. In particular, second-hand car prices rebounded 0.5% in February after falling 3.4% month-on-month in January. However, judging from historical data, the rebound of both may not be sustainable (Chart 3). In terms of commodity prices, we also need to be alert to the impact of the Red Sea incident. The month-on-month growth rate of housing prices fell to 0.43% in February (January: 0.63%). As the proportion of various types of housing in the owner's equivalent rent was adjusted in January this year, the owner's equivalent rent in January rose to 0.56% month-on-month CPI. In February, the item finally returned to a stable level of about 0.4% relative to the data before January. As we predicted, the strong accommodation prices in January did not last, and the month-on-month CPI for accommodation fell to 0.15% in February (January: 1.78%). The rental CPI was originally basically stable and lagged changes in housing prices by about one year, but the relationship between the two seems to have weakened in recent months. However, we expect that housing-related prices will still be relatively high this year, which will affect the rate of inflation decline. The growth rate of core service prices (super core service CPI) except housing has slowed down significantly, but still maintains a high level (February: 0.5%, January: 0.7%). Perhaps affected by the rebound in oil prices, air ticket prices rose another 3.57% in February (month-on-month: 1.40%), driving up the overall transportation service price. Against the background that labor costs have declined but are still relatively high, the price growth of entertainment and education is still relatively high. However, the price of medical care has dropped significantly. At the same time, the February non-farm payrolls report confirmed our judgment of a moderate tightening trend in the labor market. Previously, the new non-agricultural employment in January, which far exceeded expectations, caused market concerns. However, we judged at that time that the annual seasonal adjustment in January might be the main reason. The combined data for December last year and January this year was revised down to 167,000. Although the 275,000 new jobs created in February exceeded market expectations of around 200,000 (Chart 4), other labor market indicators pointed to moderate tightening: the unemployment rate rose by 0.2% in February after remaining at 3.7% for three consecutive months. percentage points to 3.9% (Chart 6). The hourly wage growth rate fell by 0.38 percentage points to 0.15% (Chart 5). The weekly number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits continues to trend upward (Chart 7). We maintain our fundamental view that the downward path for core inflation will remain slow and bumpy. Strong core service price CPI remains the main resistance to the decline in overall core inflation. Looking forward, the weight adjustment of the owner's equivalent rent may trigger more variables in this sub-CPI, but overall we believe that housing prices may still be high this year. Although the labor market continues to tighten moderately, the CPI for super core services excluding housing prices may still decline slowly before significant tightening is achieved. Core inflation may be difficult to return to the 2% target level by the end of this year. However, this inflation data may have little impact on the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates. There are several data details that may cause the Fed to relax its vigilance against reflation: the sudden increase in housing CPI in January (especially owner-equivalent rent) is back on track, and the super-core service CPI, although still high, has also declined significantly. In addition, it should be noted that housing prices contributed as much as 54% to the core CPI month-on-month growth rate in February, while in the core PCE price index that the Federal Reserve pays more attention to, the weight of housing is much lower (see: Monthly Macro Insights: U.S. Economy Soft landing or hard landing?). A more comprehensive picture of inflation in February awaits the release of PCE price data at the end of March. All in all, we believe that this inflation data will not affect the Fed's current interest rate cut path choice. At the interest rate meeting on March 19-20, we do not expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and will maintain the policy rate forecast made in December unchanged (the Fed predicts a 75 basis point interest rate cut throughout the year). At that time, the Federal Reserve's statement on the issue of interest rate cuts and the release of its quarterly economic outlook may provide clearer clues to the path of interest rate cuts. Risk warning: The Fed fails to respond to a weakening economy in time and causes an economic recession. Cutting interest rates early leads to high inflation and overheating of the economy.\", 'authorid': UUID('777b0405-2b18-5046-a5d4-5ba161bb71cc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8269776552915573, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '07COG08SHGKHV1OOPVBO5MLLIJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:44:24 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '07COG08SHGKHV1OOPVBO5MLLIJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5338d196-70d3-5695-baf8-f00a88cdc314'), 'title': 'Commentary on February US CPI data: Stagnant “de-inflation”', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Chen Dafei, Zhao Yu', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSbuB0UOh7bto6cOvwwKGlQ8=', 'researcher': '赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000436531', '11000197421', '11000385631'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSbuB0UOh7bto6cOvwwKGlQ8=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626700097_1.pdf?1710405062000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626700097_1.pdf?1710405062000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on February US CPI data: Stagnant “de-inflation”', 'originalAuthor': '��伟,陈达飞,赵宇', 'originalContent': '事件：美国2月CPI（季调后）同比3.2%，预期3.1%，前值3.1%；CPI环比0.4%，预期0.4%，前值0.3%。核心CPI同比3.8%，预期3.7%，前值3.9%，为2021年5月以来新低；核心CPI环比0.36%，预期0.3%，前值0.39%，环比年化4.4%。整体CPI反弹主因是能源、二手车和卡车。核心CPI继续超预期主因核心服务保持粘性。美国2月CPI再超预期，核心服务保持粘性美国2月CPI（季调后）同比3.2%，预期3.1%，前值3.1%；CPI环比0.4%，预期0.4%，前值0.3%。核心CPI同比3.8%，预期3.7%，前值3.9%，为2021年5月以来新低；核心CPI环比0.36%，预期0.3%，前值0.39%，环比年化4.4%。整体CPI反弹主因是能源、二手车和卡车。核心CPI继续超预期主因核心服务保持粘性。2月商品分项CPI同比0.3%，前值0.1%，同比有所反弹主要源于能源商品和核心非耐用品价格的大幅上涨。食品价格同比、环比均继续下行；能源商品同比有所反弹，环比大幅转正；核心商品同比继续通缩，环比转正。核心商品中，二手车和卡车同比、环比均边际大幅回升，烟草同比继续保持高位，服装、医疗和烟草环比大幅回升。2月服务业CPI同比5.0%，前值5.0%。分项上，除能源、医疗服务外，其它分项继续处于去通胀过程中。能源服务同比反弹、环比有所回落；核心服务同比、环比均继续下行，但保持韧性。房租仍是通胀的最大贡献分项，拉动了服务业CPI3.2%，贡献率64%（前值67%）；扣除房租之后的服务业CPI3.9%，前值3.6%。“去通胀”存在拖尾效应，但持续进行长期通胀（同比）压力持续好转，但短期通胀（6M环比年化）继续反弹。从扩散指数来看，同比通胀超过3%、5%和10%的细分科目数量继续减少，但6M环比年化通胀的细分科目数量相比1月有所增加。核心CPI同比继续缓慢下降，“去通胀”一直在持续进行，但通胀趋稳且具粘性。核心CPI3个月和6个月环比年化继续走高。住房和超级核心服务通胀放缓有助于核心通胀下行。一方面，在租金边际变化下，住房（主要是租金和OER）通胀自2023年3月以来一直处于下行趋势中，今年大概率会继续放缓。另一方面，劳动力市场的再平衡和薪资增速放缓，往会对通胀产生抑制作用，后续随着薪资增速的进一步放缓，“工资-通胀”链条下、超级核心服务通胀有望继续下行。CPI数据发布后，美元指数、美债收益率短线飙升，黄金短线下挫。由于通胀再次超预期，加强了美联储在近期内推迟降息的理由。截至3月13日，CME FedWatch Tool显示，市场定价美联储3月会议基本按兵不动的概率升至99%，5月维持利率不变的概率升至84%，6月首次降息的概率为57%，全年降息3次。风险提示地缘政治冲突升级；美联储再次转“鹰”；金融条件加速收缩；', 'content': 'Event: The U.S. CPI (seasonally adjusted) in February was 3.2% year-on-year, 3.1% expected, and the previous value was 3.1%; CPI was 0.4% month-on-month, 0.4% expected, and the previous value was 0.3%. The core CPI is 3.8% year-on-year, expected to be 3.7%, and the previous value is 3.9%, a new low since May 2021; the core CPI is 0.36% month-on-month, expected to be 0.3%, the previous value is 0.39%, and the month-on-month annualized rate is 4.4%. The main reasons for the overall CPI rebound were energy, used cars and trucks. Core CPI continues to exceed expectations mainly because core services remain sticky. The U.S. CPI in February exceeded expectations again, and core services remained sticky. The U.S. CPI in February (after seasonally adjusted) was 3.2% year-on-year, compared with the expected 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.1%; the CPI was 0.4% month-on-month, compared with the expected 0.4%, and the previous value was 0.3%. The core CPI is 3.8% year-on-year, expected to be 3.7%, and the previous value is 3.9%, a new low since May 2021; the core CPI is 0.36% month-on-month, expected to be 0.3%, the previous value is 0.39%, and the month-on-month annualized rate is 4.4%. The main reasons for the overall CPI rebound were energy, used cars and trucks. Core CPI continues to exceed expectations mainly because core services remain sticky. The commodity sub-CPI in February was 0.3% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 0.1%. The year-on-year rebound was mainly due to the sharp increase in the prices of energy commodities and core non-durable goods. Food prices continued to decline year-on-year and month-on-month; energy commodities rebounded year-on-year and turned sharply positive month-on-month; core commodities continued to deflate year-on-year and turned positive month-on-month. Among core commodities, the average margin of second-hand cars and trucks rebounded significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, tobacco continued to remain high year-on-year, and clothing, medical care, and tobacco rebounded significantly month-on-month. The service industry CPI in February was 5.0% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 5.0%. In terms of sub-items, except for energy and medical services, other sub-items continue to be in the process of deflation. Energy services rebounded year-on-year and declined month-on-month; core services continued to decline year-on-year and month-on-month, but remained resilient. Rent is still the largest contributor to inflation, driving the service industry CPI by 3.2%, with a contribution rate of 64% (the previous value was 67%); after deducting rent, the service industry CPI was 3.9%, the previous value was 3.6%. \"De-inflation\" has a tailing effect, but long-term inflation (year-on-year) pressure continues to improve, but short-term inflation (6M month-on-month annualized) continues to rebound. Judging from the diffusion index, the number of subdivided subjects with year-on-year inflation exceeding 3%, 5% and 10% continues to decrease, but the number of subdivided subjects with 6M month-on-month annualized inflation has increased compared with January. Core CPI continues to decline slowly year-on-year, and \"de-inflation\" has been ongoing, but inflation is stable and sticky. The core CPI 3-month and 6-month annualized rates continued to rise. Slowing core inflation in housing and super services helped core inflation fall. On the one hand, under the marginal change in rent, housing (mainly rent and OER) inflation has been in a downward trend since March 2023, and there is a high probability that it will continue to slow down this year. On the other hand, the rebalancing of the labor market and the slowdown in wage growth will often have a suppressive effect on inflation. As wage growth slows down further, super core service inflation is expected to continue to decline under the \"wage-inflation\" chain. . After the CPI data was released, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields surged in the short term, while gold fell in the short term. Inflation has once again exceeded expectations, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to delay cutting interest rates in the near term. As of March 13, the CME FedWatch Tool showed that the market priced the probability that the Federal Reserve would basically hold steady at its March meeting to rise to 99%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in May rose to 84%, and the probability of cutting interest rates for the first time in June was 57%. Interest rates were cut three times a year. Risks indicate the escalation of geopolitical conflicts; the Fed turns \"hawk\" again; financial conditions accelerate contraction;', 'authorid': UUID('5561e32c-d3e7-5cc0-a5d5-33281e23a919'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9327776171267033, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8E2HVHL3R7I0SBDLGIAJC2QVTBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:44:27 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8E2HVHL3R7I0SBDLGIAJC2QVTBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f875107e-94be-5db6-8137-86d2b6b7d3a6'), 'title': 'February U.S. CPI Data Flash Report', 'author': 'Macro Finance Team', 'orgName': '国投安信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066669', 'orgSName': '国投安信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSTGpVLDdlnczXh0ehvEyJTY=', 'researcher': '宏观金融团队', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000442645'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=7Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSTGpVLDdlnczXh0ehvEyJTY=', 'site': 'SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投安信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626699176_1.pdf?1710403586000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626699176_1.pdf?1710403586000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'February U.S. CPI Data Flash Report', 'originalAuthor': '宏观金融团队', 'originalContent': '美国2月CPI同比增3.2%，高于预期的3.1%，前值为3.1%。美国2月CPI环比增0.4%，符合预期，但高出前值0.3%。核心CPI同比增3.8%%，高于预期的3.7%，较前值3.9%进一步回落，仍为2021年5月以来的最低水平。2月核心CPl环比增0.4%，为八个月最大升幅，高于预期的0.3%，与前值持平。2月核心商品价格增速为-0.3%（前值-0.3%），服务价格增长5.2%（前值5.4%）。从细分项目来看，汽油和住房（包括租金)对CPl月度涨幅的贡献超过60%，暗示通胀存在一定的粘性。二手车、服装、机动车保险和机票价格也有所上涨。总体来看，2月CPl同比增速高于市场预期，主要原因是能源项有所反弹，同时核心商品项增速短期止跌，而核心服务价格环比跟随非农薪资有所放缓。通胀数据公布后，市场仍预期美联储将在6月份降息。掉期市场显示，6月份降息的概率为63%，略高于CPI读数公布前一天的61.8%，对于下周即将召开的3月议息会议，2月的报告不会改变美联储下周维持利率不变的计划，市场更加关注美联储对于今年降息前景的看法以及经济预测如何发出信号。', 'content': \"The U.S. CPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year in February, higher than the expected 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.1%. The U.S. CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month in February, in line with expectations, but 0.3% higher than the previous value. Core CPI increased by 3.8% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.7%, further down from the previous value of 3.9%, still the lowest level since May 2021. Core CPl increased by 0.4% month-on-month in February, the largest increase in eight months, higher than the expected 0.3% and unchanged from the previous value. In February, core commodity price growth was -0.3% (previous value -0.3%), and service prices increased by 5.2% (previous value: 5.4%). Judging from the breakdown of items, gasoline and housing (including rent) contributed more than 60% to the monthly increase in CPl, suggesting that inflation has a certain stickiness. Prices for used cars, clothing, motor vehicle insurance and air tickets also increased. Overall, the year-on-year growth rate of CPl in February was higher than market expectations, mainly due to a rebound in energy items, while the growth rate of core commodity items stopped falling in the short term, while core service prices slowed down month-on-month following non-agricultural wages. After the inflation data was released, the market still expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June. The swap market shows that the probability of an interest rate cut in June is 63%, slightly higher than the 61.8% the day before the CPI reading was released. For the March interest rate meeting to be held next week, the February report will not change the Fed’s maintenance of interest rates next week. With no change in plans, the market is paying closer attention to the Fed's views on the prospects for cutting interest rates this year and how economic forecasts will signal it.\", 'authorid': UUID('d4813736-c001-5f5c-bd84-39fcb960b66d'), 'sentimentScore': 0.19882133603096008, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'JMQ81633HD9TPMV7PFS3TIRD43VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:01 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'JMQ81633HD9TPMV7PFS3TIRD43VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('dca393dc-6b71-5deb-980e-b62995247500'), 'title': 'Macro research: Observing the marginal decline of PCE from changes in the US CPI structure', 'author': 'Yuanno', 'orgName': '中邮证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80036717', 'orgSName': '中邮证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-14', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEIiqES0GliG0nMihyVBlYK8=', 'researcher': '袁野', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000266839'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEIiqES0GliG0nMihyVBlYK8=', 'site': 'China Post Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中邮证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626673489_1.pdf?1710401730000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626673489_1.pdf?1710401730000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro research: Observing the marginal decline of PCE from changes in the US CPI structure', 'originalAuthor': '袁野', 'originalContent': '核心观点能源、房租推升通胀超预期，核心通胀边际回落。继1月美国CPI超预期之后，2月CPI再次超预期回升，引发市场关注。但从结构来看，CPI增速超预期回升主要是能源和房租分项贡献拉动，核心商品（不包括食品和能源）和核心服务（不包括能源）对CPI同比增速和环比增速的贡献均呈现边际回落趋势。这与1月美国CPI增速超预期存在结构性差异，后者超预期回升主要是核心服务（不包括能源）贡献边际回升带动，更体现核心通胀粘性较强，而2月CPI结构特征显示核心通胀有边际回落的可能。此外，考虑在核心PCE计算中，住房分项比重有所下调，医疗服务分项权重有所提高，减弱房租分项贡献，增大了2月PCE边际回落可能。2月美联储更为关注的核心PCE价格指数有望呈现边际回落态势，但尚不能给出美联储降息与否的明显指示信号，短期更需要谨慎对待日本央行收紧货币政策，警惕各类资产价格的调整。美联储货币政策制定存在数据依赖，2月核心通胀有望边际回落，但趋势性特征有待进一步明确，尚不能给出明确指示信号。此外，日本已经上修了4季度GDP数据，本周将公布日本的“春斗”结果，如果薪资增长超预期���日本央行可能收紧货币政策，这是一个从零到一的过程，意味着全球阶段性融资成本较低的时段结束，应警惕各类资产价格的调整。风险提示：美国房地产市场超预期下行；美国消费疲软；海外地缘政治冲突加剧。', 'content': 'Core view: Energy and housing rents pushed up inflation beyond expectations, while core inflation fell marginally. After the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations in January, the CPI rebounded again beyond expectations in February, attracting market attention. However, from a structural point of view, the higher-than-expected rebound in CPI growth was mainly driven by the contribution of energy and rent sub-items. The contribution of core commodities (excluding food and energy) and core services (excluding energy) to the year-on-year and month-on-month growth of CPI All showed a marginal downward trend. This is structurally different from the higher-than-expected growth rate of U.S. CPI in January. The latter\\'s higher-than-expected recovery was mainly driven by the marginal rebound in the contribution of core services (excluding energy), which also reflects the strong stickiness of core inflation. The structural characteristics of February\\'s CPI show that core inflation is relatively sticky. Inflation is likely to fall marginally. In addition, considering that in the core PCE calculation, the proportion of the housing sub-item has been reduced, and the weight of the medical service sub-item has increased, weakening the contribution of the rent sub-item and increasing the possibility of a marginal decline in PCE in February. The core PCE price index, which the Fed is more concerned about in February, is expected to show a marginal decline, but it cannot yet give a clear indication of whether the Fed will cut interest rates. In the short term, we need to be cautious about the tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan and be wary of adjustments in various asset prices. . The Fed\\'s monetary policy formulation is dependent on data. Core inflation is expected to fall marginally in February, but the trend characteristics need to be further clarified and no clear indication signal can be given yet. In addition, Japan has revised its fourth-quarter GDP data upwards and will announce the results of Japan\\'s \"Spring Fight\" this week. If wage growth exceeds expectations, the Bank of Japan may tighten monetary policy. This is a process from zero to one, which means that the global The period of lower periodic financing costs is over, and we should be wary of adjustments in the prices of various assets. Risk warning: The U.S. real estate market has declined more than expected; U.S. consumption has weakened; overseas geopolitical conflicts have intensified.', 'authorid': UUID('41b3960d-9709-5ae8-b077-aad17d16ee4a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8609316796064377, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '95RDA0E61GJKS9JJ17FEF9G0S7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:03 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '95RDA0E61GJKS9JJ17FEF9G0S7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('234160f5-aad5-5b4e-8eeb-7e7e2e13ff4f'), 'title': 'Overseas market tracking: U.S. employment remains strong, interest rate cuts are timed cautiously', 'author': 'Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli', 'orgName': '上海证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000155', 'orgSName': '上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEHB7WegDKms4AWJ+Q/4H1ko=', 'researcher': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172617', '11000235839'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEHB7WegDKms4AWJ+Q/4H1ko=', 'site': 'Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '上海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626658779_1.pdf?1710363534000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626658779_1.pdf?1710363534000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas market tracking: U.S. employment remains strong, interest rate cuts are timed cautiously', 'originalAuthor': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'originalContent': '投资摘要海外市场跟踪——（3.4-3.8）海外股市除德国、法国外均有所下跌；海外国债收益率以下行为主；美元指数有所回落，美元兑主要货币均有所贬值，其中英镑、澳元升值较多；CRB指数有所回落，主要商品除原油、小麦外均有所上涨，黄金大涨美国就业仍偏强，降息时机谨慎美国2月主要就业数据公布。从非农数据来看，新增就业27.5万人，远超市场预期，但薪资增长却有所放缓，另外失业率意外回升至3.9%，创两年来新高。从ADP就业数据来看，新增14万人，休闲与酒店业就业新增最多，其次是建筑、贸易运输类。我们认为，美国的就业市场整体仍具有韧性，虽失业率反弹，但新增就业人数仍较可观。美联储主席鲍威尔在国会的发言表示，“政策利率可能在本轮紧缩周期中达到峰值。如果经济像预期的那样发展，那么在今年的某个时候开始减少政策限制可能是合适的”。但也再次重申了1月美联储会议的观点——在对通胀率可持续地向2%迈进的信心增强之前，降低目标区间是不合适的。我们认为，今年存在降息的可能性，但对时机的选择上美联储仍持相当谨慎的态度，也需要更多通胀缓解的证据支持。欧洲央行维持利率不变3月欧洲央行宣布维持利率水平不变，并发布了最新的预测，其中通胀预期下调，主要反映了能源价格的贡献下降；2024年经济增长预期下调，但此后将有所回升，主要受到消费以及投资的支持。欧洲央行仍然强调，关键利率处于维持足够长的时间的水平，将对通胀目标的实现做出重大贡献。我们认为欧洲央行同样在等待通胀回落的进一步确认，降息仍需等待。风险提示地缘政治事件恶化，国际金融形势改变；中国通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。', 'content': 'Investment Summary Overseas Market Tracking - (3.4-3.8) Overseas stock markets have declined except for Germany and France; overseas foreign bond yields are mainly below; the U.S. dollar index has fallen back, and the U.S. dollar has depreciated against major currencies, including British pound, The Australian dollar appreciated more; the CRB index fell back; major commodities except crude oil and wheat all rose; gold surged; U.S. employment was still strong; the timing of interest rate cuts was prudent after the release of major U.S. employment data in February. Judging from the non-agricultural data, 275,000 new jobs were created, far exceeding market expectations. However, wage growth has slowed down. In addition, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9%, a new high in two years. Judging from ADP employment data, there were 140,000 new jobs added, with the leisure and hotel industry adding the most jobs, followed by construction, trade and transportation. We believe that the U.S. job market as a whole is still resilient. Although the unemployment rate has rebounded, the number of new jobs is still considerable. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in a speech to Congress that \"policy rates may peak during this tightening cycle. If the economy develops as expected, it may be appropriate to begin reducing policy restrictions at some point this year.\" But it also reiterated the view from the January Fed meeting that it would be inappropriate to lower the target range until confidence in inflation\\'s sustainable move toward 2% increases. We believe that there is a possibility of interest rate cuts this year, but the Fed is still very cautious about timing and needs more evidence of easing inflation. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged. In March, the European Central Bank announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged and released its latest forecast, in which inflation expectations were lowered, mainly reflecting the decline in the contribution of energy prices; economic growth expectations in 2024 were lowered, but there will be an increase thereafter. The rebound was mainly supported by consumption and investment. The ECB still emphasizes that maintaining key interest rates at a level long enough will make a significant contribution to the achievement of the inflation target. We believe that the European Central Bank is also waiting for further confirmation of the fall in inflation, and interest rate cuts still need to wait. Risks suggest that geopolitical events have worsened and the international financial situation has changed; China\\'s inflation has risen beyond expectations, and China\\'s monetary policy has changed beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('23836b0d-75e0-5a50-a109-862fde53e3bf'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7780679389834404, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '66NJ3JMVGT7EALOTQ86OMH99ORVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:06 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '66NJ3JMVGT7EALOTQ86OMH99ORVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('244ffd6e-cb00-5cef-a6ab-bd066f1b2d03'), 'title': 'Macro: What do you think of the government work report of the two sessions?', 'author': 'Jiang Wenbin', 'orgName': '五矿期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80055516', 'orgSName': '五矿期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEOdmpE47F7hEXWoWc6Ks7Ok=', 'researcher': '蒋文斌', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000370211'], 'count': 1, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEOdmpE47F7hEXWoWc6Ks7Ok=', 'site': 'Minmetals Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '五矿期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626615332_1.pdf?1710351949000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626615332_1.pdf?1710351949000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro: What do you think of the government work report of the two sessions?', 'originalAuthor': '蒋文斌', 'originalContent': '报告要点：3月4日开启的两会即将结束，回顾会议主要议程，最受市场关注的应该是两会的“政府工作报告”内容，其既是政府对过去一年的工作总结，也是政府对未来一年的工作目标安排。总体来说，今年政府的工作要求仍然坚持“稳重求进”的总基调，但和前两年不同的则是今年的工作要求中加入了“以进促稳、先立后破”等内容，这和去年12月份的中央政治局会议要求一致。也表明政府在未来的工作中，政策的出台会相对谨慎，对政策可能带来的附加影响会有更多的考量。对于这一块，报告中也强调了政策的协调配合，把非经济性政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估，强化政策统筹，确保同向发力、形成合力。制定政策要认真听取和吸纳各方面意见，涉企政策要注重与市场沟通、回应企业关切。实施政策要强化协同联动、放大组合效应，防止顾此失彼、相互掣肘。综合来看，未来的政策会更为友好，也会更为立体的统筹各方面的影响。而从“两会”的2024年具体工作目标看，基本符合市场预期。相对来说“GDP增长目标5%”和“连续几年发行万亿特别国债”略超市场预期。财政和货币政策发力力度并不低。重点工作方面，高质量发展，新质生产力和建设现代化产业体系是未来的工作重点。', 'content': 'Highlights of the report: The two sessions, which started on March 4, are about to come to an end. Looking back at the main agenda of the meeting, the content of the “Government Work Report” of the two sessions that attracted the most attention should be the government’s summary of the past year’s work and the government’s outlook for the future. Work target arrangement for the year. Generally speaking, the government\\'s work requirements this year still adhere to the general tone of \"striving for stability and progress\", but what is different from the previous two years is that this year\\'s work requirements include \"promoting stability through advancement, establishing first and breaking things later\". This is consistent with the requirements of the Political Bureau meeting in December last year. It also shows that in future work, the government will be relatively cautious in issuing policies and will give more consideration to the additional impacts that policies may bring. Regarding this area, the report also emphasizes the coordination of policies, including non-economic policies in the consistency assessment of macro policy orientation, strengthening policy coordination, and ensuring that efforts are made in the same direction and a synergy is formed. When formulating policies, we must carefully listen to and absorb opinions from all sides, and enterprise-related policies must focus on communicating with the market and responding to enterprise concerns. The implementation of policies must strengthen synergy and linkage, amplify the combination effect, and avoid focusing on one at the expense of the other and preventing each other from constraining each other. Taken together, future policies will be more friendly and will coordinate the impacts of all aspects in a more three-dimensional manner. Judging from the specific work goals of the \"Two Sessions\" in 2024, they are basically in line with market expectations. Relatively speaking, the \"GDP growth target of 5%\" and \"issuing trillions of special government bonds for several consecutive years\" slightly exceeded market expectations. The intensity of fiscal and monetary policies is not low. In terms of key tasks, high-quality development, new-quality productivity and the construction of a modern industrial system are the focus of future work.', 'authorid': UUID('6707c931-5c46-5931-89ed-c45f28161ed6'), 'sentimentScore': -0.018036585301160812, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'FNL2FQLUR38AD3J8R8GFVGIM2NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:07 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'FNL2FQLUR38AD3J8R8GFVGIM2NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b3bf5df8-43b8-50de-9d16-6051cfe65b7e'), 'title': 'U.S. February CPI data: The fall in core CPI is still hampered by lagging components', 'author': 'Zhang Jun , Yu Jintong', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKECNL1G8692ny0ZfBmhmoeqU=', 'researcher': '章俊,于金潼', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000440456'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKECNL1G8692ny0ZfBmhmoeqU=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626615047_1.pdf?1710349104000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626615047_1.pdf?1710349104000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. February CPI data: The fall in core CPI is still hampered by lagging components', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,于金潼', 'originalContent': '核心要点：CPI和核心CPI增速再度高于预期，居住成本和能源价格贡献突出：美国劳工数据局（BLS）公布2月消费者价格指数（CPI），其同比增速从1月的3.1%升至3.2%，高于3.1%的市场预期；剔除能源和食品的核心CPI同比3.8%，比1月的3.9%稍有下降，同样高于3.7%的市场预期。季调环比方面，CPI增速升至0.4%，核心CPI增速维持0.4%。CPI数据已经连续3个月强于预期，这其中不仅有年度调整、季调因子变动和居住成本统计方式的影响，也反映服务部分的粘性在劳动缺口和实际薪资的支持下偏强。通胀数据反映的5个要点：（1）2月CPI增速超预期的核心原因一方面是能源商品环比增幅在连续4个月负增长后转正，另一方面居住成本的粘性仍强，增幅略高于预期；此外运输、休闲、教育和通信等服务的环比也不弱。通胀的下行动能尚在，但在三季度快速向2%靠拢存在一定难度。对于通胀的整体路径需要上修。（2）核心CPI方面，我们此前认为前三季度其将顺利向3%靠拢，但提示如果居住成本粘性高则需要警惕；目前来看，居住成本统计相关的问题可能会拖累核心CPI降低的进程，需要开始注意核心年末仍在3%以上的风险。（3）居住成本所体现的信息喜忧参半，好消息是业主等价租金（OER）1月份异常的0.6%环比增速没有继续维持，后续居住成本仍有望降低；令市场担忧的是，权重高达36.2%的居住成本项环比增速近期主要在0.4%-0.5%的范围内，并未如同领先租金和房价指数预示的一般逐渐向0.3%-0.4%靠近，这可能表明CPI对实际租金成本的统计与市场数据有偏差。虽然居住成本的实际涨价情况并不严峻，但CPI的统计滞后和对OER中价格更高的独户住宅权重上调意味着居住成本目前是通胀靠近2%的最大阻碍之一。（4）不含租金的未季调服务环比增速从0.9%回落至0.6%，显示服务价格压力较1月下行，但依然处于偏高水平。从同日公布的NFIB美国小企业调查来看，未来劳动市场有望边际弱化，失业率可能开始向4%靠近，这意味着对利率反应十分滞后的服务价格终将弱化。（5）从美联储的视角来看，CPI居住成本的异常与实际情况和PCE通胀情况有所偏离，可能无需过虑，但其四季度潜在的回升与服务价格粘性的结合限制了美联储年内降息的空间。以目前数据和实际利率的框架来看，年中进行首次降息仍有较高的概率，但对全年的降息幅度预期需要进一步降低。因此，将全年降息次数修正为3次75BP。在年中进行首次降息后，美联储可能在有充分数据观察时间的9月和12月进行第二和第三次降息；而如果四季度CPI快速回升至3%以上，核心CPI仍未降至3%附近，则美联储可能选择在12月不降息，全年仅降息2次。我们的基准假设认为核心CPI年内仍会降至3%左右，但如果CPI降幅不及预期，美联储可能压缩降息幅度。目前对3月的CPI同比增速预测为3.2%，核心3.7%左右市场对CPI超预期的交易并不剧烈：市场没有对超预期的CPI做出强烈反应，CME数据显示联邦基金利率期货交易者依然维持了6月首次降息、全年75-100BP的押注。10年期美债收益率上行5.9BP至4.160%，美元指数跳升后回落，收102.9321，美国三大股指集体收涨，伦金下跌至2158美元/盎司。在通胀粘性因诸多原因而偏强的情况下，目前的降息预期稍显乐观，可能有进一步降低的空间。同日NFIB小企业调查公布的领先于劳动市场的招聘指标等暗示就业可能弱化，也是市场没有猛烈交易CPI超预期的潜在因素。在拜登政府的美国财政赤字2024和2025年希望为6.6%和6.1%的情况下，长端美债受到的压力仍然明显，同时在美联储考虑的“买短卖长”的情况下，短端国债显得更为安全。风险提示：1.美国经济韧性超预期的风险2.地缘政治冲突加剧的风险3.美国出现突发流动性危机的风险', 'content': 'Core points: CPI and core CPI growth rates were once again higher than expected, with living costs and energy prices contributing prominently: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Consumer Price Index (CPI), with year-on-year growth rising from 3.1% in January. rose to 3.2%, higher than the market expectation of 3.1%; the core CPI excluding energy and food was 3.8% year-on-year, slightly lower than the 3.9% in January, and also higher than the market expectation of 3.7%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI growth rate rose to 0.4%, and the core CPI growth rate remained at 0.4%. CPI data has been stronger than expected for three consecutive months. This is not only affected by annual adjustments, changes in seasonal adjustment factors and statistical methods of housing costs, but also reflects the stickiness of the service sector, which is supported by the labor gap and actual wages. 5 key points reflected in the inflation data: (1) The core reason why the CPI growth rate in February exceeded expectations is that on the one hand, the month-on-month growth rate of energy commodities turned positive after four consecutive months of negative growth, and on the other hand, the stickiness of housing costs is still strong, with a slightly higher growth rate. Better than expected; in addition, the chain of services such as transportation, leisure, education and communications is also not weak. The downward momentum of inflation is still there, but it will be difficult to quickly move closer to 2% in the third quarter. The overall path of inflation needs to be revised upward. (2) In terms of core CPI, we previously believed that it would smoothly move closer to 3% in the first three quarters, but we reminded that if the stickiness of housing costs is high, you need to be vigilant; at present, issues related to housing cost statistics may drag down the process of reducing the core CPI. , we need to start paying attention to the risk that the core is still above 3% at the end of the year. (3) The information reflected in the cost of living is mixed. The good news is that the abnormal 0.6% month-on-month growth rate of owner equivalent rent (OER) in January has not been maintained, and the subsequent cost of living is still expected to decrease; what worries the market is that the weight is as high as 36.2 % of the month-on-month growth rate of housing cost items has recently been mainly in the range of 0.4%-0.5%, and has not gradually approached 0.3%-0.4% as predicted by the leading rent and house price indexes. This may indicate that CPI’s statistics on actual rental costs Deviation from market data. Although the actual increase in housing costs is not severe, the statistical lag in CPI and the increased weight of more expensive single-family homes in the OER mean that housing costs are currently one of the biggest obstacles to inflation approaching 2%. (4) The month-on-month growth rate of non-seasonally adjusted services excluding rent fell from 0.9% to 0.6%, indicating that service price pressure has declined from January, but is still at a relatively high level. Judging from the NFIB U.S. Small Business Survey released on the same day, the labor market is expected to weaken marginally in the future, and the unemployment rate may begin to approach 4%, which means that service prices that are very slow to respond to interest rates will eventually weaken. (5) From the perspective of the Federal Reserve, the abnormality in CPI living costs deviates from the actual situation and PCE inflation, and there may be no need to worry about it. However, the combination of its potential recovery in the fourth quarter and the stickiness of service prices limits the space for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates during the year. . Judging from the current data and real interest rate framework, there is still a high probability of a first interest rate cut in the middle of the year, but the expected rate cut for the whole year needs to be further reduced. Therefore, the number of interest rate cuts throughout the year is revised to three times at 75BP. After cutting interest rates for the first time in the middle of the year, the Federal Reserve may make second and third interest rate cuts in September and December when there is sufficient data observation time; and if the CPI quickly rebounds to above 3% in the fourth quarter, the core CPI has not yet dropped to 3%. %, the Fed may choose not to cut interest rates in December and only cut interest rates twice throughout the year. Our baseline assumption is that core CPI will still fall to around 3% this year, but if the CPI falls less than expected, the Fed may reduce the scope of interest rate cuts. The current forecast for March CPI year-on-year growth is 3.2%, with a core of around 3.7%. The market is not trading violently on CPI exceeding expectations: the market has not reacted strongly to CPI exceeding expectations, CME data shows that federal funds rate futures traders It still maintains its bet on the first interest rate cut in June and 75-100 BP for the whole year. The 10-year U.S. bond yield rose 5.9 BP to 4.160%. The U.S. dollar index fell back after jumping to close at 102.9321. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, with Lung gold falling to $2,158 per ounce. In the case where the stickiness of inflation is strong due to many reasons, the current interest rate cut expectations are slightly optimistic and there may be room for further reduction. On the same day, the NFIB small business survey released hiring indicators that were ahead of the labor market, suggesting that employment may weaken, which is also a potential factor why the market did not trade violently for CPI to exceed expectations. With the Biden administration\\'s U.S. fiscal deficit expected to be 6.6% and 6.1% in 2024 and 2025, the pressure on the long-end U.S. bonds is still obvious. At the same time, with the Fed considering \"buying short and selling long\", the short-end Treasury bonds appear safer. Risk warning: 1. The risk of U.S. economic resilience exceeding expectations 2. The risk of intensifying geopolitical conflicts 3. The risk of a sudden liquidity crisis in the U.S.', 'authorid': UUID('aade9e7c-af7e-5d53-a8f5-2d3af8826809'), 'sentimentScore': 0.841748058795929, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'BN20LPSKID1D2OHOKUQA3HNVE7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:11 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'BN20LPSKID1D2OHOKUQA3HNVE7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('09c69ae7-f9c5-520e-a44d-2b88abb8f0f4'), 'title': 'Commentary on US February CPI data: service inflation remains high, interest rate cut expectations may be postponed again', 'author': 'Fan Lei, Wang Boqun', 'orgName': '国联证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000028', 'orgSName': '国联证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEPd8qiHnNBMjrYN5OCppp+o=', 'researcher': '樊磊,王博群', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000175009', '11000457032'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEPd8qiHnNBMjrYN5OCppp+o=', 'site': 'Guolian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626614159_1.pdf?1710347510000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626614159_1.pdf?1710347510000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on US February CPI data: service inflation remains high, interest rate cut expectations may be postponed again', 'originalAuthor': '樊磊,王博群', 'originalContent': '事件：美国2月CPI同比增长3.2%，略微高于预期，前值3.1%，环比增长0.4%。2月核心CPI同比3.8%，预期3.7%，前值3.9%，环比增长0.4%，上月0.3%，预期0.3%。通胀数据仍有韧性，尤其是服务通胀环比仍维持高位，或仍有一点惯性。数据公布后美联储3月降息概率已经降到1%，国债利率上行，但市场未进一步调低6月降息预期，三大股指先跌后涨。我们继续维持美联储降息在6月或以后的判断，目前6月降息的不确定性仍大。事件点评CPI数据略超预期，美联储降息或仍谨慎CPI略高于预期，较上月微增，同比从上个月的3.1%上升到3.2%（预期3.1%）。而核心CPI同比较上月微升，也略高于预期。数据表明通胀或仍有韧性，降息或还不宜操之过急。数据公布后美联储3月降息概率已经降到1%，关于降息时点的争论或集中在6月，国债利率上行，但市场未进一步调低6月降息预期，三大股指先跌后涨。核心服务通胀环比维持高位，同比仅微降核心CPI的韧性主要体现在服务上。服务的通胀环比0.5%，仍维持高位，虽然较上月下降0.2pct，同比增长5.2%，较上月微降。核心服务的主要一些分项，包括居所、运输服务环比增长仍较高，短期或仍有惯性。运输服务可能对利率不敏感。从核心CPI的权重来看，由于核心商品占比仅为核心服务大概一半，尽管商品通胀已经不是通胀的主要问题，但核心服务价格的韧性可能仍影响整体核心CPI，核心CPI可能仍然会表现出韧性。自有房等价租金微降，房价增速还在加快住宅的通胀目前仍然是每月服务通胀增长的最大贡献者，同比4.5%，上月4.6%。住宅通胀中，居所通胀仍处于高位，2月环比0.4%，较上月下降0.2pct，2月同比增长5.8%，上月6.1%。从目前的趋势看，未来短期住房相关通胀仍然是拖累通胀保持高位的分项。值得关注的是房价增速近期上行趋势仍在持续。美联储的研究发现房价增长与自有房等价租金(OER)通胀的相关性在16个月后达到0.75左右的峰值。这说明居所通胀仍有反复可能，货币政策不宜过早放松。风险提示：美联储鹰派超预期，地缘政治风险超预期。', 'content': \"Event: The U.S. CPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year in February, slightly higher than expected. The previous value was 3.1%, and the month-on-month increase was 0.4%. In February, the core CPI was 3.8% year-on-year, 3.7% expected, 3.9% previously, an increase of 0.4% month-on-month, and 0.3% last month, 0.3% expected. Inflation data are still resilient, especially services inflation which remains high month-on-month and may still have some inertia. After the data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March has dropped to 1%, and government bond interest rates have risen. However, the market has not further lowered expectations for an interest rate cut in June. The three major stock indexes fell first and then rose. We continue to maintain the judgment that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in June or later. There is still great uncertainty about interest rate cuts in June. Event Comments CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, and the Fed may still be cautious about interest rate cuts. CPI was slightly higher than expected, with a slight increase from the previous month, and a year-on-year increase from 3.1% last month to 3.2% (expected 3.1%). The core CPI rose slightly compared with last month, which was also slightly higher than expected. The data shows that inflation may still be resilient, and it may not be appropriate to cut interest rates too hastily. After the data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March has dropped to 1%. The debate on the timing of interest rate cuts may focus on June. Treasury interest rates are rising, but the market has not further lowered expectations for an interest rate cut in June. The three major stock indexes fell first and then rose. Core service inflation remained high month-on-month, with only a slight year-on-year decrease in core CPI. The resilience is mainly reflected in services. Inflation for services remained high at 0.5% month-on-month, although it fell by 0.2pct from the previous month and increased by 5.2% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous month. The main sub-categories of core services, including residence and transportation services, still have relatively high month-on-month growth, and there may still be inertia in the short term. Transportation services may not be rate sensitive. Judging from the weight of core CPI, since core goods account for only about half of core services, although commodity inflation is no longer the main issue of inflation, the resilience of core service prices may still affect the overall core CPI, and core CPI may still show toughness. Equivalent rents for owner-occupied houses have fallen slightly, and house price growth is still accelerating. Residential inflation is still the largest contributor to monthly service inflation growth, at 4.5% year-on-year and 4.6% last month. Among residential inflation, residential inflation remained at a high level, at 0.4% month-on-month in February, a decrease of 0.2pct from the previous month. It increased by 5.8% year-on-year in February and 6.1% last month. Judging from the current trend, short-term housing-related inflation will still be a drag on maintaining high inflation in the future. It is noteworthy that the recent upward trend in housing price growth continues. The Fed's research found that the correlation between house price growth and owner-equivalent rent (OER) inflation peaked at around 0.75 after 16 months. This shows that residential inflation is still likely to recur, and monetary policy should not be relaxed prematurely. Risk warning: The Federal Reserve is more hawkish than expected, and geopolitical risks are greater than expected.\", 'authorid': UUID('4786395a-b6a8-5613-93cb-532d55daeddb'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6518389135599136, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '2QSGHDMH7UHF982R5ASGJ3F9IVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:13 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '2QSGHDMH7UHF982R5ASGJ3F9IVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2e54e36e-47c3-5bef-b82b-571b6ae0e38e'), 'title': 'Comments on US CPI in February: Inflation resilience may continue', 'author': 'Zhou Yaqi , Zhu Qibing', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEJoy3SxYVHuzSOfnMzG6EKY=', 'researcher': '周亚齐,朱启兵', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000429332', '11000224223'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEJoy3SxYVHuzSOfnMzG6EKY=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626610521_1.pdf?1710342602000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626610521_1.pdf?1710342602000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on US CPI in February: Inflation resilience may continue', 'originalAuthor': '周亚齐,朱启兵', 'originalContent': '美国2月CPI同比和环比增速分别为3.2%和0.4%，略高于市场预期。能源通胀负贡献收敛，服务业通胀依旧强劲；我们预计未来数月CPI同比增速或将维持在3%左右，并存在上行风险。通胀数据并未打破“复苏交易”，美股盘中V型反弹。(未经季调)同比增速：2月美国CPI同比增速由1月的3.1%抬升至3.2%略高于市场预期的3.1%；2月核心CPI同比增速由1月的3.9%回落至3.8%，但略高于市场预期的3.7%。从CPI主要分项的2月同比增速看，食品为2.2%(vs.前值2.6%)，能源为-1.9%(vs.前值-4.6%)，核心商品为-0.3%(vs.前值-0.3%)，住宅为5.7%(vs.前值6.0%)，除住宅外的核心服务(Super Core)为4.3%(vs.前值4.3%)。(季调后)环比增速：2月美国CPI环比增速为0.4%(vs.前值0.3%)，同市场预期一致；2月美国核心CPI环比增速为0.4%(vs.前值0.4%)，高于市场预期的0.3%。从CPI主要分项的2月环比增速看，食品为0.0%(vs.前值0.4%)，能源为2.3%(vs.前值-0.9%)，核心商品为0.1%(vs.前值-0.3%)，住宅为0.4%(vs.前值0.6%)，除住宅外的核心服务为0.5%(vs.前值0.9%)能源通胀负贡献收敛，服务业通胀依旧强劲；我们预计未来数月CPI同比增速或将维持在3%左右，并存在上行风险。从能源通胀来看，在布伦特油价近期持续在80美元/桶上下波动的背景下，美国CPI能源同比增速负贡献进一步收敛。在布伦特油价维持在80美元/桶的假设下，未来数月能源通胀的同比增速或在0%附近徘徊。从食品通胀来看，全球初级产品的食品价格指数显示美国CPI食品同比增速未来数月或由近期的回落逐渐转变为走高，从而带来新的通胀压力。另一方面，综合考虑全球供应链压力指数和中国PPI未来数月的可能路径，我们预期剔除了能源和食品的CPI核心商品同比增速未来或将从目前0%附近的低位小幅反弹。从服务业通胀来看，考虑美国房价同比走势以及CPI住房通胀统计上的滞后性，我们预计未来数月CPI住房通胀同比增速或将持续缓慢降温，但可能在2024年下半年开始回升。另一方面，在劳动力市场持续边际降温（尤其是时薪同比增速放缓）的假设下，我们预计剔除了住房通胀的CPI服务业（Super Core）未来数月同比增速有望呈现缓慢回落的态势。整体而言，尽管未来数月包括能源和食品在内的商品类通胀同比走势可能出现一些波动，但是在权重显著更大的服务业通胀有望缓慢降温的背景下美国CPI同比增速仍有可能缓慢回落。但进入2024年下半年后，随着走高的房价对CPI的影响逐渐显现，通胀或存在更大的上行压力。地缘政治不确定性对供应链、大宗商品等的影响或也将为通胀带来上行风险。我们预计未来数月美国CPI同比增速将维持在3%左右，但存在上行风险与此同时，克利夫兰联储的CPI Nowcasting指标显示3月美国的CPI和核心CPI分别为约3.3%和3.7%，这也显示了美国目前通胀压力仍较大。略超预期的通胀数据并未打破“复苏交易”，美股盘中V型反弹。尽管略超预期的通胀数据公布之后对市场形成了短暂的冲击，但并未打破2024年开年以来的“复苏交易”。数据公布后的几分钟之内，美债长端收益率冲高，美股下挫，但这一波动很快被逆转，最终美债长端收益率和美股在当天再次携手走高。在3月11日《海外宏观和大类资产月报：初春之兴的报告中，我们提到“股指和美债收益率携手上行暗示市场交易主题线索或已经由通胀/美联储转变至经济基本面/企业盈利”。企业盈利回升的动能可能是美股面对较高通胀仍能表现优异的关键支撑。另一方面，通胀数据并未显著改变市场对于美联储的货币政策路径预期。市场对6月降息预期的概率基本不变，但小幅调降了2024年累计降息的幅度。风险提示：美国通胀走势偏离预期。', 'content': 'The year-on-year and month-on-month CPI growth rates in the United States in February were 3.2% and 0.4% respectively, slightly higher than market expectations. The negative contribution of energy inflation has converged, and service industry inflation remains strong; we expect that the year-on-year CPI growth rate may remain around 3% in the next few months, and there are upward risks. Inflation data did not break the \"recovery trade\", and US stocks rebounded in a V-shape during the session. (Not seasonally adjusted) Year-on-year growth: The year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI in February rose to 3.2% from 3.1% in January, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.1%; the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in February fell from 3.9% in January to 3.8%, but slightly higher than market expectations of 3.7%. Judging from the year-on-year growth rate of the main CPI components in February, food was 2.2% (vs. the previous value of 2.6%), energy was -1.9% (vs. the previous value -4.6%), and core commodities were -0.3% (vs. The previous value was -0.3%), residential was 5.7% (vs. the previous value was 6.0%), and core services (Super Core) other than residential were 4.3% (vs. the previous value was 4.3%). (After seasonally adjusted) month-on-month growth rate: The month-on-month growth rate of U.S. CPI in February was 0.4% (vs. the previous value of 0.3%), consistent with market expectations; the month-on-month growth rate of U.S. core CPI in February was 0.4% (vs. the previous value of 0.4 %), higher than market expectations of 0.3%. Judging from the February month-on-month growth rate of the main CPI components, food was 0.0% (vs. the previous value 0.4%), energy was 2.3% (vs. the previous value -0.9%), and core commodities was 0.1% (vs. the previous value) -0.3%), residential is 0.4% (vs. previous value 0.6%), core services other than residential is 0.5% (vs. previous value 0.9%), the negative contribution of energy inflation has converged, and service industry inflation remains strong; we expect that in the future The year-on-year CPI growth rate in several months is likely to remain around 3%, and there are upward risks. From the perspective of energy inflation, with Brent oil prices continuing to fluctuate around US$80/barrel recently, the negative contribution to the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI energy has further converged. Under the assumption that Brent oil prices remain at US$80 per barrel, the year-on-year growth rate of energy inflation in the coming months may hover around 0%. From the perspective of food inflation, the food price index of global primary products shows that the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI food may gradually shift from a recent decline to a rise in the coming months, thus bringing new inflationary pressure. On the other hand, taking into account the global supply chain stress index and the possible path of China\\'s PPI in the coming months, we expect that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI core commodities excluding energy and food may rebound slightly from the current low of around 0%. From the perspective of service industry inflation, considering the year-on-year trend of U.S. housing prices and the statistical lag in CPI housing inflation, we expect that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI housing inflation may continue to slow down slowly in the coming months, but may begin to pick up in the second half of 2024. On the other hand, under the assumption that the labor market continues to cool down (especially the year-on-year growth rate of hourly wages slows down), we expect that the CPI service industry (Super Core) excluding housing inflation is expected to show a slow decline in year-on-year growth in the next few months. situation. Overall, although the year-on-year trend of commodity inflation, including energy and food, may see some fluctuations in the next few months, the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI is still likely to be slow against the background that inflation in the service industry, which has a significantly larger weight, is expected to slowly cool down. fall back. However, after entering the second half of 2024, as the impact of rising housing prices on CPI gradually becomes apparent, there may be greater upward pressure on inflation. The impact of geopolitical uncertainty on supply chains, commodities, etc. may also bring upward risks to inflation. We expect U.S. CPI year-on-year growth to remain around 3% in the coming months, but there are upside risks. At the same time, the Cleveland Fed\\'s CPI Nowcasting indicator shows that U.S. CPI and core CPI were about 3.3% and 3.7% respectively in March. It also shows that the current inflationary pressure in the United States is still relatively high. The slightly higher-than-expected inflation data did not break the \"recovery trade\", and US stocks rebounded in a V-shape during the session. Although the release of inflation data that was slightly higher than expected caused a short-term impact on the market, it did not break the \"recovery trade\" since the beginning of 2024. Within minutes after the data was released, long-term U.S. bond yields surged higher and U.S. stocks fell. However, this fluctuation was quickly reversed, and eventually U.S. bond long-term yields and U.S. stocks rose together again that day. In the March 11 \"Overseas Macro and Major Assets Monthly Report: The Rise of Spring\" report, we mentioned that \"the stock index and U.S. bond yields have risen together, suggesting that the market trading theme clue may have shifted from inflation/the Federal Reserve to economic fundamentals/ corporate profits”. The momentum of a rebound in corporate earnings may be a key support for U.S. stocks to outperform in the face of higher inflation. On the other hand, the inflation data did not significantly change the market’s expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy path. The market\\'s expected probability of an interest rate cut in June remains basically unchanged, but the cumulative rate of interest rate cuts in 2024 has been slightly reduced. Risk warning: U.S. inflation trends deviate from expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('f45139fc-bbea-5975-8c64-cec4e899633c'), 'sentimentScore': 0.5318552255630493, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '91EPAESBFVOEFNUG5C2I62E1LNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '91EPAESBFVOEFNUG5C2I62E1LNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e438077a-067b-5b03-8075-d4bafdc58294'), 'title': '[Guangdong Open Macro] Basic characteristics, influencing factors and policy suggestions of wage income', 'author': 'Luo Zhiheng, Ma Jiajin', 'orgName': '粤开证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000118', 'orgSName': '粤开证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKECRhHui4XyikoZSrlxTJoEI=', 'researcher': '罗志恒,马家进', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245432', '11000375233'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKECRhHui4XyikoZSrlxTJoEI=', 'site': 'Guangdong Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '粤开证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626610503_1.pdf?1710342602000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626610503_1.pdf?1710342602000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '[Guangdong Open Macro] Basic characteristics, influencing factors and policy suggestions of wage income', 'originalAuthor': '罗志恒,马家进', 'originalContent': '摘要居民收入增速较疫情前放缓，是当前居民消费不足、楼市低迷、信心不振的重要原因，拖累经济平稳恢复。2023年全国居民人均可支配收入增长6.3%，低于疫情前2019年的8.8%。《政府工作报告》将“居民收入增长和经济增长同步”与“多措并举稳就业促增收”分别列入了今年的主要预期目标和重点工作任务。劳动工资是居民的主要收入来源，是促增收的重要抓手。2023年城镇居民工资性收入占可支配收入的60.4%。工资增长将提高居民消费能力，降低预防性储蓄，增强居民消费信心和意愿。央行城镇储户问卷调查结果显示，当期收入感受上升，未来收入信心和当前消费意愿也将明显增强。1、不同行业、企业、岗位间的工资水平存在显著差异。1）行业方面，2022年城镇非私营单位的年平均工资，互联网、金融、科研技术行业位列前三，均在16万元以上；而制造业、房地产、建筑、公共设施管理、居民服务、农林牧渔、住宿餐饮等行业，年平均工资不足10万元。2）企业方面，同一行业中，城镇非私营单位中的其他单位（包括联营单位、有限责任公司、股份有限公司、外商投资和港澳台投资等）与城镇私营单位，企业的所有制性质相近，主要差别在于企业规模大小，前者的营收规模更大，2022年各行业平均工资比后者高出12.7%~119.8%。3）岗位方面，国家统计局统计了16个行业大类（不含金融、公共管理、农林牧渔业）的岗位工资数据，其中互联网、租赁商务、公共设施管理业的岗位工资差距位列前三，2022年岗位平均工资最高与最低之比都在4.5倍以上；工资差距最小的是建筑业和住宿餐饮业，岗位平均工资最高与最低之比不到2.3倍，二者也是平均工资水平较低、农民工就业人数较多的行业。4）个税方面，由于个人所得税是累进税，因此行业平均工资越高、岗位工资差距越大，行业的人均个人所得税也会越高。2022年人均个人所得税最高的三个行业分别是金融、租赁商务、互联网行业，最低的是建筑、教育、住宿餐饮、公共设施管理业。虽然租赁商务业的平均工资只是中等水平，但岗位工资差距显著，因此人均个税较高；而公共设施管理业虽然岗位工资差距显著，但平均工资较低，因此人均个税也较低。2、市场机制是决定工资水平的主要力量。党的二十大报告提出，要“构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制，充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用，更好发挥政府作用”。根据新古典分配理论，劳动、资本、土地等生产要素的均衡价格等于其在商品和服务生产中的边际贡献，贡献越大，要素价格越高。工资是劳动的要素价格，均衡工资等于劳动的边际产出。资本密集型和技术密集型的高端制造业和服务业，其从业人员的工资之所以能高于劳动密集型的传统和低附加值制造业和服务业，是因为前者的边际产出比后者更高，创造的经济价值更大。3、当前工资增速受到经济下行压力和物价低迷影响。当前我国宏观经济总体处于疫后恢复期，但面临一些困难和挑战：一是有效需求不足，居民消费和企业投资意愿不强；二是部分行业存在重复布局和内卷式竞争，出现产能过剩；三是物价水平低位运行，尤其是PPI降幅较大，导致企业利润下降、债务负担加重、投资意愿降低、财政收入放缓。宏观经济的压力会传导至行业、企业和居民，导致实际工资增速放缓；而低迷的物价也会压低名义增速，造成宏观数据与微观感受的背离。总的来看，中国经济回升向好的势头不会改变，既有经济自身的内生恢复动能，也有稳增长政策的保驾护航。然而受外部形势复杂严峻、内部风险挑战等因素影响，节奏上可能呈现出波浪式发展、曲折式前进的特征，或对居民工资收入增长造成扰动。4、如何提高居民工资收入？第一，稳增长稳就业是最有效、最普惠的方式。有必要强化宏观政策逆周期和跨周期调节，以财政政策和房地产政策为重点、以提振预期和就业优先政策为核心，加快经济回升向好。第二，劳动力跨区域、跨行业自由流动是基本要求。要构建灵活、可竞争的市场机制，以深化改革户籍制度和基本公共服务提供机制为路径，加快破除妨碍劳动力市场化配置和自由流动的障碍，促进人力资源优化配置。第三，充分激发民营企业活力是重要保障。民营企业是创造就业岗位并发放劳动工资的重要市场主体，要从政策、制度、法治和理论层面将民营经济发展内嵌于社会主义市场经济之中，从根本上破解市场准入、要素获取、公平执法、权益保护等方面存在的问题。行业市场化程度越高，行业内民营企业的相对工资水平也越高；而在那些行政性垄断程度较高的行业，国有单位的平均工资要显著高于民营企业。风险提示：外部冲击超预期、稳增长政策超预期', 'content': 'Abstract The growth rate of residents\\' income has slowed down compared with that before the epidemic. This is an important reason for the current insufficient consumption of residents, the sluggish property market, and low confidence, which has hindered the smooth recovery of the economy. The per capita disposable income of national residents will grow by 6.3% in 2023, which is lower than the 8.8% in 2019 before the epidemic. The \"Government Work Report\" lists \"synchronizing residents\\' income growth with economic growth\" and \"taking multiple measures to stabilize employment and increase income\" as this year\\'s main expected goals and key tasks respectively. Labor wages are the main source of income for residents and an important starting point for increasing income. In 2023, urban residents’ wage income will account for 60.4% of disposable income. Wage growth will increase residents\\' spending power, reduce precautionary savings, and enhance residents\\' confidence and willingness to consume. The results of the central bank\\'s urban savers\\' questionnaire show that the current income experience has increased, and future income confidence and current consumption willingness will also be significantly enhanced. 1. There are significant differences in salary levels among different industries, companies, and positions. 1) In terms of industries, in terms of annual average wages in urban non-private units in 2022, the Internet, finance, and scientific research and technology industries rank among the top three, all above 160,000 yuan; while manufacturing, real estate, construction, public facilities management, resident services, In industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, accommodation and catering, the average annual salary is less than 100,000 yuan. 2) In terms of enterprises, in the same industry, other urban non-private units (including joint ventures, limited liability companies, joint stock companies, foreign investment, investment from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, etc.) are similar to urban private units, and the ownership nature of the enterprise is similar. The difference lies in the size of the company. The former has a larger revenue scale, and the average salary in various industries in 2022 is 12.7% to 119.8% higher than the latter. 3) In terms of jobs, the National Bureau of Statistics has compiled job salary data for 16 major industry categories (excluding finance, public management, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery). Among them, the salary gap among jobs in the Internet, leasing business, and public facilities management industries ranks top Third, in 2022, the ratio of the highest to the lowest average salary for the job will be more than 4.5 times; the smallest wage gap is in the construction industry and the accommodation and catering industry, where the ratio of the highest to the lowest average salary will be less than 2.3 times. The two industries also have relatively higher average salary levels. Industries with low employment rates and a large number of migrant workers. 4) In terms of personal income tax, since personal income tax is a progressive tax, the higher the average salary in the industry and the greater the wage gap between positions, the higher the per capita personal income tax in the industry will be. The three industries with the highest per capita personal income tax in 2022 are finance, leasing business, and the Internet industry, while the lowest are construction, education, accommodation and catering, and public facilities management. Although the average salary in the leasing business industry is only at a medium level, the salary gap between positions is significant, so the per capita personal income tax is high; while in the public facilities management industry, although the salary gap between positions is significant, the average salary is low, so the personal income tax per capita is also low. . 2. The market mechanism is the main force that determines wage levels. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to \"build a high-level socialist market economic system, give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation, and better play the role of the government.\" According to neoclassical distribution theory, the equilibrium price of production factors such as labor, capital, and land is equal to their marginal contribution in the production of goods and services. The greater the contribution, the higher the factor price. Wage is the factor price of labor, and the equilibrium wage is equal to the marginal product of labor. The reason why the wages of employees in capital-intensive and technology-intensive high-end manufacturing and service industries are higher than those in labor-intensive traditional and low value-added manufacturing and service industries is because the marginal output of the former is higher than that of the latter Higher, the economic value created is greater. 3. The current wage growth rate is affected by the downward pressure on the economy and low prices. At present, China\\'s macro-economy is generally in the post-epidemic recovery period, but it faces some difficulties and challenges: First, effective demand is insufficient, and residents\\' consumption and corporate investment willingness are not strong; second, some industries have duplication of layout and involution competition, resulting in overcapacity; Third, the price level is running at a low level, especially the PPI has dropped significantly, which has led to a decline in corporate profits, an increase in debt burden, a reduction in investment willingness, and a slowdown in fiscal revenue. Macroeconomic pressure will be transmitted to industries, companies and residents, causing real wage growth to slow down; and depressed prices will also depress nominal growth, causing a discrepancy between macro data and micro perceptions. Overall, China\\'s economic recovery will not change. It has both the economy\\'s own endogenous recovery momentum and the protection of growth-stabilizing policies. However, due to the complex and severe external situation, internal risk challenges and other factors, the pace may show the characteristics of wave-like development and zigzag progress, or cause disturbance to the growth of residents\\' wage income. 4. How to increase residents’ wage income? First, stabilizing growth and employment is the most effective and universally beneficial way. It is necessary to strengthen counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, focus on fiscal policy and real estate policy, and focus on boosting expectations and employment priority policies to accelerate economic recovery. Second, free movement of labor across regions and industries is a basic requirement. It is necessary to build a flexible and competitive market mechanism, take the path of deepening the reform of the household registration system and the basic public service provision mechanism, accelerate the removal of obstacles that hinder the market-oriented allocation and free flow of labor, and promote the optimal allocation of human resources. Third, fully stimulating the vitality of private enterprises is an important guarantee. Private enterprises are important market entities that create jobs and pay labor wages. They must embed the development of the private economy in the socialist market economy from the policy, system, legal and theoretical levels, and fundamentally crack down on market access, factor acquisition, Problems in fair law enforcement and protection of rights and interests. The higher the degree of marketization of an industry, the higher the relative wage level of private enterprises in the industry; and in those industries with a high degree of administrative monopoly, the average wage of state-owned units is significantly higher than that of private enterprises. Risk warning: External shocks exceed expectations, and policies to stabilize growth exceed expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('3a3f588e-caa1-5e3b-bce3-f7ec5e6b279a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8841436859220266, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'DDC96QM21AHIB8MI0BCUEM4L0NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:20 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'DDC96QM21AHIB8MI0BCUEM4L0NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8808268f-2087-5bfc-b028-cde5df6dc795'), 'title': 'U.S. Economy: CPI exceeds expectations again, but does not change the possibility of first interest rate cut in June', 'author': 'Ye Bingnan, Liu Zehui', 'orgName': '招银国际金融有限公司', 'orgCode': '80027629', 'orgSName': '招银国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEDFI2TQ11pCo1fGiidfL6Qw=', 'researcher': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000395738', '11000444841'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEDFI2TQ11pCo1fGiidfL6Qw=', 'site': 'CMB International Capital Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招银国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626609847_1.pdf?1710339170000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626609847_1.pdf?1710339170000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. Economy: CPI exceeds expectations again, but does not change the possibility of first interest rate cut in June', 'originalAuthor': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'originalContent': '美国2月CPI和核心CPI环比增速连续第二个月高于市场预期，CPI同比增速也小幅反弹。食品价格回落，但能源与核心商品价格反弹。服务通胀小幅回落，业主等价租金环比涨幅收窄令市场宽慰，但能源服务、运输服务价格反弹推动超级核心服务通胀小幅回升。CPI略超预期将强化美联储保持观望而不立即降息的态度，预计3月和5月议息会议将保持利率不变。通胀数据公布后，10年国债收益率从4.09%最高升至近4.17%，美元指数走强，但美股小幅上扬，货币市场预期6月美联储降息概率保持在70%不变。由于春季出行需求推动汽油价格回升与基数效应，3月CPI同比可能延续反弹；但二手车等核心商品与房租通胀回落将推动核心CPI增速延续回落。预计第二季度美国经济和就业将有所降温。美联储可能避免在临近大选前的第三季度启动政策转向，6月首次降息的可能性相对更大，预计全年降息幅度100个基点，年末联邦基金利率在4.3%左右。食品价格回落，能源与核心商品价格反弹。美国CPI环比增速从1月的0.3%反弹至0.4%，连续两月高于市场预期，同比增速从3.1%小幅反弹至3.2%。食品价格环比持平，较1月的0.4%有所下降。其中外出就餐环比增速从0.5%降至0.1%，为2021年初以来最低。能源价格环比反弹2.3%，而1月环比下降1.9%，但同比增速延续回落，其中汽油价格环比增速从1月的-3.3%大幅反弹至2月的3.8%。3月前两周汽油价格较2月延续上涨近4.5%，由于今年春季天气较暖，提前的出行需求可能继续推动汽油价格环比回升。核心商品价格环比反弹0.1%，同比下降0.3%，服装和二手车价格成为核心商品反弹的最大推手。二手车价格在1月环比大幅下降3.4%后小幅反弹0.5%，服装环比上涨0.6%。展望未来，从二手车批发价等先行指标来看，核心商品通胀可能延续回落；食品价格将继续下降，但能源价格同比增速可能将逐渐重返正区间。服务通胀小幅回落但仍在高位，运输服务价格反弹制约去通胀速度。核心CPI环比增速与1月持平达到0.4%，高于预期的0.3%，同比增速从3.9%回落至3.8%。核心服务环比增速从0.7%降至0.5%，主要由于占CPI权重超过三分之一的房租环比增速从1月的0.6%下降至0.4%，其中占权重最大的业主等价租金(OER)环比涨幅从0.6%降至0.4%，主要居所租金则从0.4%增至0.5%。BLS解释1月OER大幅反弹因为独栋房屋占比提升，2月OER环比涨幅放缓则缓解了市场对房租通胀可能反弹的担忧。但由于去年四季度以来独栋房屋价格反弹，短期内房租通胀降幅可能受限，从而制约通胀进一步下行速度。扣除房租外的超级核心服务价格环比增速与1月持平达到0.6%，医疗护理、专业服务、健康险、汽车保险和杂项个人服务环比增速显著放缓，但公共交通、机票、休闲服务价格环比涨幅扩大。美联储或在6月开始降息、全年降息1个百分点。2月CPI增速超预期强化美联储保持观望而不降息态度，预计3月和5月议息会议将保持政策利率不变。尽管2月CPI通胀延续超预期，但业主等价租金涨幅回落缓解市场之前担忧，货币市场对6月首次降息的预期不变。预计第二季度经济和通胀将保持温和放缓态势，而美联储可能避免在临近大选前的第三季度实施货币政策转向，因此6月首次降息的可能性较大。预计美联储全年降息幅度100个基点，年末联邦基金利率降至4.3%左右。美国名义GDP增速可能从2023年的6.3%降至2024年的4%，2024-2025年潜在名义GDP增速为4.2%左右，预计10年国债收益率从2023年末的3.9%降至2024年末的3.75%和2025年的3.6%。', 'content': \"The month-on-month growth rate of U.S. CPI and core CPI in February was higher than market expectations for the second consecutive month, and the year-on-year CPI growth rate also rebounded slightly. Food prices fell, but energy and core commodity prices rebounded. Service inflation fell slightly, and the month-on-month increase in landlord-equivalent rents narrowed, which relieved the market. However, the rebound in prices of energy services and transportation services drove a slight rebound in super-core service inflation. The slightly higher-than-expected CPI will strengthen the Fed's wait-and-see attitude and not immediately cut interest rates. It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the March and May interest rate meetings. After the inflation data was released, the 10-year Treasury yield rose from a maximum of 4.09% to nearly 4.17%. The U.S. dollar index strengthened, but U.S. stocks rose slightly. The money market expected that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June remained unchanged at 70%. Due to the rebound in gasoline prices and the base effect driven by travel demand in the spring, the CPI may continue to rebound year-on-year in March; however, the decline in core commodities such as used cars and rent inflation will push the core CPI growth rate to continue to decline. The U.S. economy and employment are expected to cool in the second quarter. The Federal Reserve may avoid starting a policy shift in the third quarter before the election. It is more likely to cut interest rates for the first time in June. It is expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points throughout the year, and the federal funds rate will be around 4.3% at the end of the year. Food prices fell, while energy and core commodity prices rebounded. The U.S. CPI growth rate rebounded from 0.3% in January to 0.4%, higher than market expectations for two consecutive months, and the year-on-year growth rate rebounded slightly from 3.1% to 3.2%. Food prices were flat month-on-month, down from 0.4% in January. Among them, the month-on-month growth rate of dining out dropped from 0.5% to 0.1%, the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Energy prices rebounded by 2.3% month-on-month, while falling by 1.9% month-on-month in January, but the year-on-year growth rate continued to decline. The month-on-month growth rate of gasoline prices rebounded sharply from -3.3% in January to 3.8% in February. In the first two weeks of March, gasoline prices continued to rise by nearly 4.5% compared with February. Due to warmer weather this spring, early travel demand may continue to push gasoline prices up month-on-month. Prices of core commodities rebounded by 0.1% month-on-month and fell 0.3% year-on-year. Clothing and second-hand car prices became the biggest drivers of the rebound in core commodities. Second-hand car prices rebounded slightly by 0.5% after a sharp drop of 3.4% month-on-month in January, while clothing prices rose 0.6% month-on-month. Looking to the future, judging from leading indicators such as second-hand car wholesale prices, core commodity inflation may continue to fall; food prices will continue to decline, but the year-on-year growth rate of energy prices may gradually return to the positive range. Service inflation fell slightly but is still at a high level, and the rebound in transportation service prices restricted the speed of de-inflation. The core CPI month-on-month growth rate was unchanged from January at 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3%, and the year-on-year growth rate dropped from 3.9% to 3.8%. The month-on-month growth rate of core services dropped from 0.7% to 0.5%, mainly due to the month-on-month growth rate of rent, which accounts for more than one-third of the CPI weight, falling to 0.4% from 0.6% in January. Among them, the owner's equivalent rent (OER), which accounts for the largest weight, ) month-on-month increase fell from 0.6% to 0.4%, while the rent of primary residence increased from 0.4% to 0.5%. The BLS explained that the sharp rebound in OER in January was due to the increase in the proportion of single-family homes. The slowdown in OER month-on-month growth in February alleviated market concerns about a possible rebound in rent inflation. However, due to the rebound in single-family house prices since the fourth quarter of last year, the decline in rent inflation may be limited in the short term, thus restricting the further decline in inflation. The month-on-month growth rate of super core service prices excluding rent was unchanged from January at 0.6%. The month-on-month growth rate of medical care, professional services, health insurance, car insurance and miscellaneous personal services slowed significantly, but the price growth of public transportation, air tickets, and leisure services The month-on-month increase expanded. The Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in June and cut interest rates by 1 percentage point throughout the year. The higher-than-expected growth rate of CPI in February strengthened the Fed's wait-and-see attitude and not to cut interest rates. It is expected that the policy rate will remain unchanged at the March and May interest rate meetings. Although CPI inflation continued to exceed expectations in February, the decline in owner-equivalent rent growth eased the market's previous concerns, and the money market's expectations for the first interest rate cut in June remained unchanged. The economy and inflation are expected to maintain a moderate slowdown in the second quarter, and the Federal Reserve may avoid implementing a monetary policy shift in the third quarter before the election. Therefore, the first interest rate cut in June is more likely. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points throughout the year, with the federal funds rate falling to around 4.3% by the end of the year. The U.S. nominal GDP growth rate may fall from 6.3% in 2023 to 4% in 2024. The potential nominal GDP growth rate in 2024-2025 is about 4.2%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is expected to fall from 3.9% at the end of 2023 to the end of 2024. 3.75% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2025.\", 'authorid': UUID('08f97a71-1879-5f33-a1aa-79c7a17d8bf9'), 'sentimentScore': 0.5541839450597763, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '62F11EALVLG09J62A4G8LOTE1FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:22 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '62F11EALVLG09J62A4G8LOTE1FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a996335f-b10e-5c01-8386-851b73dc1b2c'), 'title': 'Low-altitude economic framework report: The first year of the low-altitude economy has arrived, but the sails are sailing but the trade winds', 'author': 'Su Yi', 'orgName': '中泰证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000157', 'orgSName': '中泰证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEAzouKGjil532KG9QjppN4M=', 'researcher': '苏仪', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000301031'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEAzouKGjil532KG9QjppN4M=', 'site': 'Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中泰证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626609689_1.pdf?1710340048000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626609689_1.pdf?1710340048000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Low-altitude economic framework report: The first year of the low-altitude economy has arrived, but the sails are sailing but the trade winds', 'originalAuthor': '苏仪', 'originalContent': '摘要“低空”通常指距正下方地平面垂直距离在1000米以内的空域（根据不同地区特点和实际需要可延伸至3000米）人民日报刊登的文章《科技引领，促进低空经济腾飞》提到，到“十四五”末，我国低空经济对国民经济的综合贡献值将达到3-5万亿元。“填空白、补短板，创新发展模式，加强运营环境建设，拓展终端应用市场，才能激发产业活力、释放消费潜力。”文章明确，当此之际，各地应当因地制宜出台支持政策，完善地方性法规，聚焦解决空域开放和地面基础设施建设等问题，推动尽快建立健全低空领域基础标准、技术标准、管理标准、行业标准体系，切实保障低空经济健康发展。低空经济是一个融合发展的综合经济形态。可以理解为以民用有人驾驶和无人驾驶航空器为载体，以载人、载货及其他作业等多场景低空飞行活动为牵引。目前在部分领域已经有了广泛应用：风光游览、城市安防、医疗救护、应急救援、农林植保、电力巡检等。风险提示：低空开放政策进度不及预期；空域开放不及预期；低空航空器技术及配套设施发展缓慢；旅游观光等消费需求不足；市场竞争加剧；研报使用信息更新不及时的风险等。', 'content': 'Abstract \"Low altitude\" usually refers to the airspace within 1,000 meters of the vertical distance from the ground level directly below (it can be extended to 3,000 meters according to different regional characteristics and actual needs). The article \"Science and Technology Leads to Promote the Take-off of Low-altitude Economy\" published in the People\\'s Daily mentioned that, By the end of the \"14th Five-Year Plan\", the comprehensive contribution value of my country\\'s low-altitude economy to the national economy will reach 3-5 trillion yuan. \"Only by filling gaps, making up for shortcomings, innovating development models, strengthening the construction of operating environment, and expanding the terminal application market can we stimulate industrial vitality and release consumption potential.\" The article makes it clear that at this time, all localities should introduce support policies according to local conditions and improve local regulations, focusing on solving issues such as airspace opening and ground infrastructure construction, promoting the establishment and improvement of basic standards, technical standards, management standards, and industry standard systems in the low-altitude field as soon as possible to effectively ensure the healthy development of the low-altitude economy. The low-altitude economy is a comprehensive economic form that integrates development. It can be understood that civil manned and unmanned aircraft are used as carriers, and multi-scenario low-altitude flight activities such as manned, cargo and other operations are used as traction. At present, it has been widely used in some fields: scenery tours, urban security, medical rescue, emergency rescue, agriculture, forestry and plant protection, power inspection, etc. Risk warning: The progress of the low-altitude opening policy is less than expected; the opening of airspace is less than expected; the development of low-altitude aircraft technology and supporting facilities is slow; consumer demand for tourism and sightseeing is insufficient; market competition intensifies; the risk of untimely updates of research and use information, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('d27b90f9-8896-5e73-bce2-d322755dfad3'), 'sentimentScore': 0.08165724761784077, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'M11SR170754U8T8PI68HF3I21RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:25 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'M11SR170754U8T8PI68HF3I21RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b89f4ac8-3674-55a2-9a54-d11ad59235de'), 'title': '2024 Mood and Healthy Sleep White Paper', 'author': 'Guo Qiaoyu', 'orgName': '艾瑞股份', 'orgCode': '80365131', 'orgSName': '艾瑞股份', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEDY9VdV6/sSnJtWHF2alFCk=', 'researcher': '郭乔羽', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000460338'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEDY9VdV6/sSnJtWHF2alFCk=', 'site': 'iResearch', 'originalSite': '艾瑞股份', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626609383_1.pdf?1710337237000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626609383_1.pdf?1710337237000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '2024 Mood and Healthy Sleep White Paper', 'originalAuthor': '郭乔羽', 'originalContent': '2024年，国民对“健康”的定义更加多元大众健康意识提升，人们对健康的理解从“无病无痛”，延伸到“身心健康、精神面貌、外在形象、生活作息”等多方面。受公共健康事件、悦己理念等影响，大众开始关注自我感受，健康管理的意识也逐渐渗透至心理健康管理、容貌管理。人们对自身的健康状态也提出了更高要求和期待人们对自身健康状态也提出了更高要求和期待，仅有11.0%的受访者表示，对自己目前的健康状况“十分满意”。整体而言，61.3%的受访者对自己的健康状况“较为满意”。其中，男性对自己健康状况的满意度略高于女性。大众持续关注健康状况，睡眠困扰成为国民问题95%的受访者表示，最近一年有过健康困扰，人均3.6个健康困扰，担忧普涨。其中，睡眠问题、皮肤状态不好、肠胃不好、脱发、情绪问题成为国民的五大健康困扰。', 'content': 'In 2024, the national definition of \"health\" will become more diverse and public health awareness will increase. People\\'s understanding of health will extend from \"no disease and no pain\" to \"physical and mental health, mental outlook, external image, daily routine\" and other aspects. Affected by public health incidents and the concept of self-pleasure, the public has begun to pay attention to self-feeling, and the awareness of health management has gradually penetrated into mental health management and appearance management. People have also put forward higher demands and expectations for their own health status. Only 11.0% of the respondents said they were \"very satisfied\" with their current health status. Overall, 61.3% of the respondents were \"relatively satisfied\" with their health status. Among them, men are slightly more satisfied with their health than women. The public continues to pay attention to health conditions, and sleep problems have become a national problem. 95% of the respondents said they have had health problems in the past year, with an average of 3.6 health problems per capita. Concerns are generally rising. Among them, sleeping problems, poor skin condition, gastrointestinal problems, hair loss, and emotional problems have become the top five health problems for the people.', 'authorid': UUID('093702d6-3e7e-5e2a-a6fb-a03a5112b2c3'), 'sentimentScore': 0.08267176523804665, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '0EL83RJ4TC5K9UAT77CK2IH473VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:28 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '0EL83RJ4TC5K9UAT77CK2IH473VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e07c43cf-5500-5cae-b699-7996fa003e84'), 'title': 'Comments on US CPI in February: Inflation has rebounded again, and core pressure is difficult to relieve', 'author': 'Cai Rui, Li Shaojin', 'orgName': '交银国际证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80101832', 'orgSName': '交银国际证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEKQeCIqaBTGC4xY4Pv+kQg4=', 'researcher': '蔡瑞,李少金', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000442439', '11000445033'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEKQeCIqaBTGC4xY4Pv+kQg4=', 'site': 'BOCOM International Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '交银国际证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626609374_1.pdf?1710336979000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626609374_1.pdf?1710336979000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on US CPI in February: Inflation has rebounded again, and core pressure is difficult to relieve', 'originalAuthor': '蔡瑞,李少金', 'originalContent': '美国2024年2月CPI同比增3.2%，高于市场预期以及上月的3.1%；环比增0.4%，持平预期，但高于上月0.3%。核心CPI同比增3.8%，高于市场预期3.7%，但低于上月3.9%。核心CPI环比0.4%，高于预期0.3%，与上月一致。汽油价格大涨是本月总体通胀超预期的主要推手。汽油价格的上升是2月名义通胀超预期的主要驱动因素，其环比由上月的-3.2%，跳升为3.6%。而能源服务价格虽有所回落，但环比增速依然较为强劲。能源产品和服务两项共同推动能源价格环比升2.3%，贡献了CPI月度超三分之一的涨幅。尽管随着冬季过去，能源服务价格可能将回落，但半导体、AI等产业对用电的中长期压力犹在。此外，地缘局势对能源价格的扰动仍不可忽视。且由于居民对能源价格的感知度较高，通胀预期近期有所上升。核心商品价格反弹，供应链压力难解。二手车价格在上月大幅回落后再度上涨，考虑到其前瞻性指标已回落，预计二手车对商品价格造成的扰动应有限。但此外，红海紧张局势尚未停歇，对航运价格仍形成扰动，供应链压力短期难以缓解，或拖累整体商品通胀回落的进展。住房通胀缓解，但总体滞后性仍较强。继1月住房通胀大幅上涨后，2月住房通胀环比有所放缓。上月业主等价租金（OER）大幅上涨可能主要源于美国劳工部对数据源权重的调整，但后续可能仍会有此种偏差效应，且住房服务通胀总体滞后性仍较强，持续拖累核心通胀回落进程。剔除住房的核心服务通胀仍然顽固。美联储关注更为密切的剔除掉住房后的核心服务通胀仍然顽固，环比由上月的0.8，降至0.5%。其中，医疗服务价格压力缓解，但交通服务仍在加速上涨，机票价格及机动车保险价格热度难退。剔除住房的核心服务通胀与薪资增速相关性较高，2月非农就业数据显示薪资增速仍较高，超级核心通胀压力暂难缓解。再超预期的通胀数据对降息预期影响相对有限。利率期货市场隐含5月降息25基点概率为14.2%，而CPI数据公布前为17.9%；6月降息25基点的概率为60.8%，与CPI数据公布前相差不大。市场押注2024年全年降息在3-4次。后市观察：作为美联储3月FOMC会议前最后一份，也是最重要的参考数据，2月再超预期的通胀数据，以及此前仍显稳健的就业数据显然不能够给美联储官员足够的信心尽快降息。市场对仍显顽固的通胀数据有所脱敏，可能源于近日美联储主席鲍威尔在两院听证会上表示距离有信心开始降息“不远”了，认为预防式降息仍将会不久后开启。鉴于近期市场风险偏好处在较高位置，美股、比特币等风险资产接连创下新高，可能进一步限制了美联储进行预防式降息的空间。我们重申在1月FOMC���议纪要后的解读，即美联储对降息审慎，货币政策的边际调整更可能是以放缓缩表来实现的。我们延续对美联储降息审慎的判断，即降息时点和幅度可能均小于市场预期，投资者可能须警惕风险资产的回调风险。', 'content': 'The U.S. CPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year in February 2024, higher than market expectations and 3.1% last month; it increased 0.4% month-on-month, in line with expectations, but higher than 0.3% last month. Core CPI increased by 3.8% year-on-year, higher than market expectations of 3.7%, but lower than 3.9% last month. Core CPI was 0.4% month-on-month, 0.3% higher than expected and consistent with last month. A surge in gasoline prices was the main driver of higher-than-expected overall inflation this month. Rising gasoline prices were the main driver of higher-than-expected nominal inflation in February, which jumped to 3.6% month-on-month from -3.2% the previous month. Although energy service prices have fallen somewhat, the month-on-month growth rate is still relatively strong. Energy products and services jointly pushed energy prices up 2.3% month-on-month, contributing more than one-third of the monthly CPI increase. Although energy service prices may fall as winter passes, the mid- to long-term pressure on electricity consumption from industries such as semiconductors and AI remains. In addition, the impact of geopolitical tensions on energy prices cannot be ignored. And because residents have a higher perception of energy prices, inflation expectations have increased recently. Core commodity prices have rebounded, and supply chain pressures are difficult to resolve. Second-hand car prices have risen again after falling sharply last month. Considering that their forward-looking indicators have fallen back, the disruption caused by second-hand cars to commodity prices is expected to be limited. But in addition, tensions in the Red Sea have not subsided and are still causing disturbances to shipping prices. The pressure on the supply chain is difficult to alleviate in the short term, which may hinder the progress of the overall commodity inflation decline. Housing inflation has eased, but the overall lag is still strong. Following a sharp rise in housing inflation in January, housing inflation slowed down in February from the previous month. The sharp increase in owner-equivalent rent (OER) last month may be mainly due to the adjustment of the weight of data sources by the U.S. Department of Labor, but such bias effects may still occur in the future, and the overall lag in housing services inflation is still strong, continuing to drag down the core The process of inflation falling. Inflation in core services, which excludes housing, remains stubborn. The core services inflation excluding housing, which the Fed is watching more closely, remained stubborn, falling to 0.5% month-on-month from 0.8% last month. Among them, the pressure on medical service prices has eased, but transportation services are still rising at an accelerating pace, and air ticket prices and motor vehicle insurance prices are hard to stop. Core service inflation excluding housing has a high correlation with wage growth. February non-farm employment data shows that wage growth is still high, and super core inflation pressure is difficult to alleviate for the time being. Any higher-than-expected inflation data will have a relatively limited impact on interest rate cut expectations. The interest rate futures market implies that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in May is 14.2%, compared with 17.9% before the release of CPI data; the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in June is 60.8%, which is not much different from that before the release of CPI data. The market is betting on 3-4 interest rate cuts throughout 2024. Market Outlook Observation: As the last and most important reference data before the Federal Reserve\\'s March FOMC meeting, the inflation data that exceeded expectations again in February and the previously still solid employment data obviously do not give Federal Reserve officials enough confidence to cut interest rates as soon as possible. The market is desensitized to the still stubborn inflation data, which may be due to the fact that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the recent hearings of both houses that it is \"not far\" from confidence to start cutting interest rates, believing that preventive interest rate cuts will still start soon. Given that market risk appetite has been at a high level recently, risk assets such as U.S. stocks and Bitcoin have hit new highs one after another, which may further limit the Federal Reserve’s space for preventive interest rate cuts. We reiterate our interpretation after the January FOMC meeting minutes, that is, the Fed is cautious about cutting interest rates, and the marginal adjustment of monetary policy is more likely to be achieved by slowing down the balance sheet. We continue to be cautious about the Fed\\'s interest rate cut, that is, the timing and magnitude of the rate cut may be smaller than market expectations, and investors may need to be wary of the risk of a correction in risky assets.', 'authorid': UUID('2427af0c-0a21-5003-abde-02bb4ca518e3'), 'sentimentScore': 0.7983054146170616, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '0NVN4H10Q11154O0MIL4C9QNQVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:30 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '0NVN4H10Q11154O0MIL4C9QNQVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7ff795a1-2d84-5a1c-a199-09b89dfa1e21'), 'title': 'Overseas Observation: US CPI in February 2024 - Has the downward trend of US inflation reversed?', 'author': 'Hu Shaohua, Liu Sijia', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEHXmjrKE48UfIoWGAhV0ZwQ=', 'researcher': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249934', '11000257478'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEHXmjrKE48UfIoWGAhV0ZwQ=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626603618_1.pdf?1710335331000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626603618_1.pdf?1710335331000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas Observation: US CPI in February 2024 - Has the downward trend of US inflation reversed?', 'originalAuthor': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'originalContent': '投资要点事件：2月美国CPI同比上涨3.2%，前值3.1%，预期3.1%；环比上涨0.4%，前值0.3%，预期0.4%。核心CPI同比上涨3.8%，前值3.9%，预期3.7%；环比上涨0.4%，前值0.4%，预期0.3%。核心观点：美国2月CPI超预期，通胀下降趋势不明显。能源和房租价格上涨是主因。核心通胀仍显韧性，核心服务价格与当月薪资增速脱钩，未来仍有进一步下降的可能性。市场推迟美联储降息预期。美国经济政策前景将依赖于就业和通胀数据的后续变化。由于美国实际工资仍在增长，消费难以骤降，除非金融市场发生危机，否则就业降温仍将缓慢。未来一段时间，通胀可能仍是美联储的首要关切。目前的数据虽然没有显示通胀下行的趋势已经逆转，但显然也无法给美联储信心。3月FOMC可能温和放鹰。美国通胀续超预期，下降趋势不明显。2月美国CPI同比增速再次上升，高于市场预期。核心CPI同比增速较上月略有下滑、环比增速持平，均高于市场预期。除去住房外的核心服务价格同比上涨3.9%，环比季调后上涨0.6%，环比增幅与上月持平，反映出美国核心通胀的韧性依然很强。美国CPI的同比增速于2023年6月降至3.1%后，至今的3个季度都仍维持在3%以上，虽然仍在下行，但趋势已非常不明显。能源和房租仍是推动CPI上涨的主因。2月，能源价格上涨2.3%，成为美国CPI上升的重要推手。由于国际油价走高，汽油和燃油分别上涨3.8%和1.1%。住房价格上涨0.4%，较上月略有下跌，但仍是美国CPI的最大贡献项。主要住所租金、业主等价租金，分别上涨0.5%、0.4%。美国房价高位、就业市场维持韧性之下，租金价格下降速度可能仍将缓慢。核心通胀韧性仍强。2月，核心商品价格CPI由跌转涨，环比上涨0.1%。二手车和服装价格的上涨是主要原因，分别上涨0.5%和0.6%。核心服务价格环比上升0.5%，涨幅较上月小幅下降0.2pct。除住房外的核心服务价格环比增长0.6%，与前值持平，主要原因是交通、机票、娱乐价格上涨。鉴于2月美国就业偏弱、薪资增速低于预期，当月的核心服务价格上涨较为意外，可能滞后于服务业薪资的变化。如果美国就业市场维持2月的走弱趋势，核心通胀未来仍有加速下降的可能性。市场推迟降息预期。由于通胀高于预期，联邦基金利率期货计价的6月降息概率从71.5%下滑至67.5%。美债波动加大，美元汇率上升，标普500指数上涨。美国通胀韧性或将持续，美联储降息时点可能依旧遥远。除去能源、房租两项较为不可控的因素，核心服务可能是未来美国通胀下行的希望。服务价格取决于美国的就业市场是否能继续降温。美国就业市场近两个月来的趋势较为扑朔，1月过热，2月又急速冷却，总体趋势仍有待观察。但由于美国实际工资仍在增长，消费难以骤降，除非金融市场发生危机，否则就业降温仍将缓慢。未来一段时间，通胀可能仍是美联储的首要关切。1月FOMC会议上，鲍威尔表示，美联储需要对通胀能够降至2%有充分信心，才能开始逐��放松限制性政策。目前的数据虽然没有显示通胀下行的趋势已经逆转，但显然也无法给美联储信心。3月FOMC会议上，美联储可能温和放鹰，一边推迟降息预期，一边强化软着陆前景以稳定资本市场信心。需要关注3月会议上美联储对后续缩表节奏的安排。风险提示：中国出口商品价格波动可能影响美国通胀；地缘政治风险。', 'content': \"Key investment events: U.S. CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year in February, compared with the previous value of 3.1%, and 3.1% expected; it rose 0.4% month-on-month, compared with the previous value of 0.3%, and 0.4% expected. Core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, the previous value was 3.9%, and the expectation was 3.7%; it rose 0.4% month-on-month, the previous value was 0.4%, and the expectation was 0.3%. Core view: U.S. CPI in February exceeded expectations, and the downward trend in inflation is not obvious. Rising energy and rent prices are the main reasons. Core inflation remains resilient, core service prices are decoupled from monthly wage growth, and there is still the possibility of further declines in the future. The market postponed expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The outlook for U.S. economic policy will depend on subsequent changes in employment and inflation data. Since real wages in the United States are still growing, consumption is unlikely to plummet. Unless there is a crisis in the financial market, employment will continue to cool slowly. Inflation is likely to remain the Fed's primary concern for some time to come. Although the current data does not show that the downward trend in inflation has been reversed, it obviously cannot give confidence to the Fed. The March FOMC may be mildly hawkish. U.S. inflation continues to exceed expectations, and the downward trend is not obvious. In February, the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI increased again, higher than market expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of core CPI dropped slightly from the previous month, while the month-on-month growth rate was flat, both higher than market expectations. Prices of core services excluding housing rose 3.9% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month after seasonally adjustment. The month-on-month increase was the same as last month, reflecting that the resilience of U.S. core inflation remains strong. After the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI dropped to 3.1% in June 2023, it has remained above 3% for the past three quarters. Although it is still declining, the trend is no longer obvious. Energy and rent are still the main factors driving the rise in CPI. In February, energy prices rose by 2.3%, becoming an important driver of the rise in US CPI. Due to higher international oil prices, gasoline and fuel oil increased by 3.8% and 1.1% respectively. Housing prices rose 0.4%, a slight decrease from the previous month, but still the largest contributor to US CPI. Main residence rent and owner-equivalent rent increased by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. With U.S. housing prices remaining high and the job market remaining resilient, rental prices may still decline slowly. Core inflation remains strong. In February, the core commodity price CPI turned from falling to rising, rising by 0.1% month-on-month. Rising prices of used cars and clothing were the main reasons, rising by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively. Core service prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, a slight decrease of 0.2pct from the previous month. Prices of core services other than housing increased by 0.6% month-on-month, the same as the previous value, mainly due to increases in transportation, air tickets, and entertainment prices. Given that U.S. employment was weak and wage growth was lower than expected in February, the increase in core service prices that month was unexpected and may lag behind changes in service industry wages. If the U.S. job market maintains its weakening trend in February, there is still the possibility that core inflation will accelerate in the future. The market postponed interest rate cut expectations. Due to higher-than-expected inflation, the probability of a June rate cut based on federal funds rate futures fell from 71.5% to 67.5%. U.S. debt volatility increased, the U.S. dollar exchange rate rose, and the S&P 500 index rose. The resilience of U.S. inflation may continue, and the time for the Fed to cut interest rates may still be far away. Excluding the two relatively uncontrollable factors of energy and rent, core services may be the hope for downward inflation in the United States in the future. Prices for services depend on whether the U.S. job market continues to cool. The trend of the U.S. job market in the past two months has been complicated. It was overheated in January and cooled rapidly in February. The overall trend remains to be seen. However, since real wages in the United States are still growing, consumption is unlikely to plummet. Unless there is a crisis in the financial market, employment will continue to cool slowly. Inflation is likely to remain the Fed's primary concern for some time to come. At the January FOMC meeting, Powell said that the Fed needs to be fully confident that inflation can be reduced to 2% before it can begin to gradually relax restrictive policies. Although the current data does not show that the downward trend in inflation has been reversed, it obviously cannot give confidence to the Fed. At the March FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve may be mildly hawkish, delaying interest rate cut expectations while strengthening the prospect of a soft landing to stabilize capital market confidence. We need to pay attention to the Fed's arrangements for the subsequent pace of balance sheet reduction at the March meeting. Risk warning: Price fluctuations in China’s export commodities may affect U.S. inflation; geopolitical risks.\", 'authorid': UUID('f33028d3-8791-5b14-80ca-a862e2ba251a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6325174272060394, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '2I62NI5FCTVT811M0EHOAFIOKNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:33 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '2I62NI5FCTVT811M0EHOAFIOKNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e0b82dd2-20bc-50e6-ae27-5d01e10c2fef'), 'title': 'Central Bank Operation Daily', 'author': 'Li Mingyu', 'orgName': '新湖期货股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80030099', 'orgSName': '新湖期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEMHkZEfFCgH/ewltGIxsLmk=', 'researcher': '李明玉', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197321'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEMHkZEfFCgH/ewltGIxsLmk=', 'site': 'Xinhu Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '新湖期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626602532_1.pdf?1710342408000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626602532_1.pdf?1710342408000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Central Bank Operation Daily', 'originalAuthor': '李明玉', 'originalContent': '公开市场操作：3月13日|中国央行今日进行30亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.80%，与此前持平。因今日有100亿元7天期逆回购到期，当日实现净回笼？0亿元曰人U日心uvvMLF操作：今日央行无MLF投放与操作，中标利率为2.50%，与此前一致PSL操作：今日央行无PSL投放与操作。TILF：今日无TMLF到期与操作。国库定存操作：今日无国库定存到期及操作。', 'content': 'Open market operations: March 13 | The People’s Bank of China conducted a 3 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation today, with the winning rate at 1.80%, the same as before. Because 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase expires today, will a net withdrawal be achieved on that day? 0 billion Japanese U heliocentric uvvMLF operation: There is no MLF placement and operation by the central bank today, and the winning interest rate is 2.50%, which is consistent with the previous PSL operation: There is no PSL placement and operation by the central bank today. TILF: There are no TMLF expirations and operations today. Treasury fixed deposit operations: There are no treasury fixed deposit expirations and operations today.', 'authorid': UUID('06615761-5e26-57d2-b056-2b9f0d8913bd'), 'sentimentScore': 0.05591055378317833, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '7RVGBHK3TCKP4U7UCBAO0KQJEJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:35 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '7RVGBHK3TCKP4U7UCBAO0KQJEJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('850f0bdd-515c-540a-8754-7d18b91fde9a'), 'title': 'Macro Comment: The impact of price wars on price levels', 'author': 'Song Xuetao, Sun Yongle', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEO3DAJzAM86mpvK8nHiFvUY=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛,孙永乐', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658', '11000337036'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEO3DAJzAM86mpvK8nHiFvUY=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626602528_1.pdf?1710329437000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626602528_1.pdf?1710329437000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: The impact of price wars on price levels', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛,孙永乐', 'originalContent': '在CPI同比位于低点时，技术进步带来的汽车行业价格战对CPI的影响或不可忽视。假设今年手机价格跌幅近似去年，汽车价格降幅进一步下滑至-8%左右，预计会导致CPI同比增速下滑0.45个百分点左右。但本文仅估算了技术进步初期，价格战对CPI的影响。站在中长期看，价格战后，企业优胜劣汰，行业生态更加有效，技术进步对CPI的影响会减弱。同时，技术进步、生产效率提高能够带动经济增长并创造新的需求，这会带动CPI的上行。风险提示：权重估算存在误差，CPI波动超预期，价格战演进超预期', 'content': 'When CPI is at a low point year-on-year, the impact of price wars in the automobile industry brought about by technological progress on CPI may not be ignored. Assuming that the price drop of mobile phones this year is similar to that of last year, and the drop in car prices further drops to about -8%, it is expected that the year-on-year CPI growth rate will fall by about 0.45 percentage points. However, this article only estimates the impact of price wars on CPI in the early stages of technological progress. From a mid- to long-term perspective, after a price war, enterprises will survive and the fittest will survive, the industry ecology will be more effective, and the impact of technological progress on CPI will weaken. At the same time, technological progress and improved production efficiency can drive economic growth and create new demand, which will drive up the CPI. Risk warning: There are errors in weight estimation, CPI fluctuations exceed expectations, and the price war evolves beyond expectations', 'authorid': UUID('4449585e-c540-5def-a027-eb3ec7d62432'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8625787263736129, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'NHA75PFTF0QCCPBHFRFI61HDMRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:38 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'NHA75PFTF0QCCPBHFRFI61HDMRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('815a90b0-3cbc-589b-87f3-7380a7479aab'), 'title': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm payroll data in February: The U.S. labor market remains relatively stable and the window for interest rate cuts is narrow', 'author': 'Kangmingyi', 'orgName': '东兴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80114781', 'orgSName': '东兴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEBUZp30nujD5mELBbd742Jo=', 'researcher': '康明怡', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000270257'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEBUZp30nujD5mELBbd742Jo=', 'site': 'Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东兴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626602526_1.pdf?1710329357000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626602526_1.pdf?1710329357000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm payroll data in February: The U.S. labor market remains relatively stable and the window for interest rate cuts is narrow', 'originalAuthor': '康明怡', 'originalContent': '事件：美国2月季调后非农就业增27.5万，预期20万，前值从35.3万下修至22.9万人；失业率3.9%，预期3.7%，前值3.7%。劳动参与率62.5%，持平。时薪同比4.3%，预期4.3%，前值4.4%。主要观点：1、就业紧绷程度下降，非常接近疫情前的高位水平，上半年就业尚可。2、降息最佳时间窗口为5月至三季度中期，先考虑50bp幅度，更多降息仍需数据支持。就业紧绷程度下降，非常接近疫情前的高位水平，上半年就业尚可。宏观上，消费的迅速恢复与就业市场固有的缓慢复苏特征是造成去年至今劳动力市场紧绷的主要原因。当前，岗位空缺数与非农就业总和仍显著高于劳动力供给，预计上半年就业仍旧尚可。但注意到岗位空缺数下降趋势不变，就业紧绷程度已非常接近疫情前的高位水平，预示着疫情后期非正常的劳动力供给不平衡状态接近结束。我们以岗位空缺数与非农就业总和作为衡量劳动力市场的需求方，以劳动力人数作为供给方，需求占供给的比例已从疫情后期的高点103.68%降至101.64%，非常接近疫情前的高点100.91%。（疫情前2019~2020年2月，美国劳动力市场处于历史上较为紧绷的时期），短期仍难以下降至合理范围。分行业看，部分行业岗位空缺数已显著低于疫情前，如贸易运输和能源（85%）、零售（74%），仍显著高于疫情前的有医疗保健（162%）、制造业（155%）和建筑业（137%）（图8）。受基建项目支持，建筑业岗位需求旺盛，推断短期内建筑业投资仍旧稳健。目前劳动力市场紧绷主要集中于恢复较慢的服务业人群和受政策影响的建筑业。就业人数下降，非农上升，两者���距继续走阔。劳动参与率和就业率双双回落至上一个平台。分年龄看，35-44岁参与率继续上扬，但其他年龄层有所下降（图3）。虽然非农就业上升，但就业人人下降，说明兼职人数有所增加，高通胀对实际购买力或有持续影响。医疗、政府继续高位增长，与上月特征相仿，专业与商业继续低迷。2月就业主要集中于医疗保健（6.7万）、政府（5.2万）、餐饮（4.2万）、社会支持（2.4万），建筑（2.3万）、运输和仓储（2万），零售（1.9万），其余行业就业变化不大。基建法案效果显著，建筑2.3万基本由非房地产贡献，比如重型和城市工程建设1.25万，非民宅特别贸易合同0.74万等。专业与商业服务（0.9万）的低速增长延续了前几个月的特征，即专业、科学技术服务继续增长1.6万，就业下降主要来自临时帮助服务-1.54万。其他方面，信息业连续3个月就业不再收缩，或预示疫情后的行业回落暂告一段落；此外，制造业就业继续低迷（-0.4万），非耐用品仍处于趋势性回落中（-0.6万），耐用品基本不变（0.2万）。时薪（或周薪）同比需降至4%以下才可看到通胀压力实际下降，需至少一个季度才能确定不会反弹。在前期基数较高的基础上，时薪同比仍能达到4%以上是劳动力市场较为紧绷的佐证之一。2月时薪同比虽然继续回落，但仍有4.5%。时薪回落主要由中高收入带动，中低收入变化不大。横向比较，4%属于正常经济周期的高位，特别是CPI同比低于时薪同比的情况下。我们关于降息时间点的观点基本印证，即最早不会早于5月。近期鲍威尔表示降息临近，目前的政策利率水平明显高于中性利率水平。我们在2020年疫情开始后就提出，随着地产周期复苏，中性利率可能有所抬升，即目前的政策利率水平虽处于限制性区域，但可能离中性利率并不太远。降息方面，我们认为，劳动力市场虽有所缓和但仍处于紧绷状态，过早降息可能会引起后期通胀的反弹。今年先考虑降息50bp以缓和高利率对经济的限制，更多的降息仍需观察。此外，最佳的降息窗口在二季度末三季度初。由于美国是消费主导的经济体，三四季度为传统消费旺季，若一二季度不出现衰退，则大概率三四季度经济表现尚可。因此，若三四季度消费尚可，则通胀存在反弹压力。降息拖到三季度后期至年尾，可能会遇到通胀下行趋势减弱而经济增速维持一定水平这种不利降息的局面。风险提示：海外通胀超预期，海外经济衰退。', 'content': 'Event: The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 275,000 in February after seasonally adjustment, which was expected to be 200,000. The previous value was revised down from 353,000 to 229,000; the unemployment rate was 3.9%, which was expected to be 3.7%, and the previous value was 3.7%. The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, unchanged. Hourly wages were 4.3% year-on-year, compared with the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.4%. Main points: 1. The employment tightness has declined and is very close to the high level before the epidemic. Employment in the first half of the year is acceptable. 2. The best time window for interest rate cuts is from May to the middle of the third quarter. Consider the 50bp range first. More interest rate cuts still need data support. The employment tightness has declined and is very close to the high level before the epidemic. Employment in the first half of the year is acceptable. From a macro perspective, the rapid recovery of consumption and the inherent slow recovery characteristics of the job market are the main reasons for the tight labor market since last year. Currently, the total number of job vacancies and non-agricultural employment is still significantly higher than the labor supply, and employment is expected to remain acceptable in the first half of the year. However, it is noted that the downward trend in the number of job vacancies remains unchanged, and the employment tightness is very close to the high level before the epidemic, indicating that the abnormal labor supply imbalance in the late period of the epidemic is approaching an end. We measure the demand side of the labor market by the number of job vacancies and the total number of non-agricultural employment, and the supply side by the number of laborers. The proportion of demand to supply has dropped from the high point of 103.68% in the late period of the epidemic to 101.64%, which is very close to the high point before the epidemic. Points 100.91%. (Before the epidemic, from 2019 to February 2020, the U.S. labor market was in a relatively tight period in history), and it is still difficult to fall to a reasonable range in the short term. In terms of industries, the number of job vacancies in some industries has been significantly lower than before the epidemic, such as trade, transportation and energy (85%), and retail (74%). It is still significantly higher than before the epidemic, such as health care (162%) and manufacturing. (155%) and construction (137%) (Figure 8). Supported by infrastructure projects, the demand for jobs in the construction industry is strong, and it is inferred that investment in the construction industry will remain solid in the short term. The current tightening of the labor market is mainly concentrated in the service industry, which is slow to recover, and the construction industry, which is affected by policies. The number of employed persons has declined, while non-agricultural employment has increased, and the gap between the two continues to widen. Both the labor force participation rate and the employment rate fell back to the previous level. Looking at age groups, the participation rate for those aged 35-44 continues to rise, but for other age groups it has declined (Figure 3). Although non-agricultural employment increased, the number of employed persons decreased, indicating that the number of part-time workers has increased, and high inflation may have a continued impact on real purchasing power. Medical care and government continued to grow at a high level, similar to the characteristics of last month, while professional and business continued to be sluggish. Employment in February was mainly concentrated in health care (67,000), government (52,000), catering (42,000), social support (24,000), construction (23,000), transportation and warehousing (20,000), and retail (19,000) ), employment in other industries has not changed much. The infrastructure bill has a significant effect. The construction bill of 23,000 is basically contributed by non-real estate, such as heavy and urban engineering construction of 12,500, and non-residential special trade contracts of 7,400. The slow growth in professional and business services (09,000) continued the characteristics of previous months, that is, professional, scientific and technical services continued to increase by 16,000, and the employment decline mainly came from temporary help services -15,400. In other respects, employment in the information industry has not shrunk for three consecutive months, which may indicate that the industry decline after the epidemic has come to an end; in addition, manufacturing employment continues to be sluggish (-0.4 million), and non-durable goods are still in a trend decline (-0.6 million), durable goods remained basically unchanged (0.2 million). Hourly wages (or weekly wages) need to fall below 4% year-on-year to see inflationary pressure actually decline, and it will take at least one quarter to be sure it will not rebound. On the basis of a high base in the early stage, hourly wages can still reach more than 4% year-on-year, which is one of the evidences of the tight labor market. Although hourly wages continued to fall year-on-year in February, they were still 4.5%. The fall in hourly wages was mainly driven by middle and high incomes, with little change in low and middle incomes. In horizontal comparison, 4% is a high level in the normal economic cycle, especially when the year-on-year CPI is lower than the year-on-year hourly wage. Our view on the timing of interest rate cuts is basically confirmed, that is, it will not be earlier than May at the earliest. Powell recently stated that a rate cut is imminent, and the current policy interest rate level is significantly higher than the neutral interest rate level. We proposed after the start of the epidemic in 2020 that as the real estate cycle recovers, the neutral interest rate may rise. That is, although the current policy interest rate level is in a restrictive area, it may not be too far from the neutral interest rate. In terms of interest rate cuts, we believe that although the labor market has eased, it is still in a tight state, and cutting interest rates too early may cause a rebound in inflation in the later period. This year, we will first consider cutting interest rates by 50bp to ease the constraints of high interest rates on the economy. More interest rate cuts still need to be observed. In addition, the best window for interest rate cuts is at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter. Since the United States is a consumption-led economy, the third and fourth quarters are the traditional peak consumption seasons. If there is no recession in the first and second quarters, there is a high probability that the economic performance in the third and fourth quarters will be acceptable. Therefore, if consumption is acceptable in the third and fourth quarters, there will be pressure for inflation to rebound. If the interest rate cut is delayed until the late third quarter to the end of the year, the downward trend in inflation may weaken while economic growth maintains a certain level, which is an unfavorable situation for interest rate cuts. Risk warning: Overseas inflation exceeds expectations and overseas economies decline.', 'authorid': UUID('3f2797dd-6eba-5070-8041-b1ca733a1529'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9599061850458384, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '5HII4F7DNMHAA114DH04TLG1B7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:41 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '5HII4F7DNMHAA114DH04TLG1B7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('907f9864-062a-5558-8627-c3981782f993'), 'title': 'Comments on import and export data from January to February 2024: The base effect is superimposed on the resilience of external demand, and export growth exceeds expectations.', 'author': 'Yuan Haixia, Zhang Lin, Shi Miao', 'orgName': '中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80002154', 'orgSName': '中诚信国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEHmDhQ54lYFp6POyFzCV4xI=', 'researcher': '袁海霞,张林,石淼', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000241949', '11000270239', '11000450331'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEHmDhQ54lYFp6POyFzCV4xI=', 'site': 'China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中诚信国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626601608_1.pdf?1710327946000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626601608_1.pdf?1710327946000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on import and export data from January to February 2024: The base effect is superimposed on the resilience of external demand, and export growth exceeds expectations.', 'originalAuthor': '袁海霞,张林,石淼', 'originalContent': '低基数叠加外需韧性，出口增速超出预期。1-2月出口同比增长7.1%，较去年末（2023年12月）提升4.8个百分点，预期为2.7%。出口增速超预期主要受以下因素影响，一是全球半导体销售上行周期对我国机电产品出口形成支撑；二是美国进入补库周期带来需求的额外增量；三是东盟及美国等经济仍有韧性带动出口数量改善。从环比来看，1-2月环比回落-9.8%，强于2014-2023年-20.4%的均值水平。海外经济基本面延续分化，我国对东盟、美国出口由负转正，对欧盟出口降幅显著。美国经济依然较为强劲，2023年四季度美国GDP环比折年率为3.3%，2024年1-2月新增非农业就业人数依然处于较高水平，而欧元区GDP仍在零增长附近徘徊，经济增长乏力，俄乌冲突持续扰动欧洲政治与经济运行。2月全球主要经济体制造业PMI均有不同程度上涨，摩根大通全球制造业PMI连续两月小幅回升至50.3%，重返荣枯线以上，其中2月份美国制造业PMI为52.2%，较上月回升1.5个百分点，欧元区和日本制造业景气度边际改善但仍偏弱，PMI指数位于荣枯线以下。总体上看，美国经济韧性较强对于我国外需起到了一定支撑作用。1月与2月中国PMI新出口订单分别为46.7%、46.4%，略高于2023年12月，表明制造业出口需求有所上涨。与海外经济体的基本面及制造业景气度运行一致，1-2月我国对东盟、美国出口增速均较前期显著上涨，对欧盟、日本的出口降幅进一步扩大。具体来看，1-2月，对东盟、美国出口由负转正，同比增速为6%、5%，较前值分别增长11、18.1个百分点，东盟仍是我国第一大贸易伙伴；对日本和韩国出口增速分别为-9.7%和-9.9%，分别较前值下降1.2、3.7个百分点；对欧盟出口降幅收窄8.9个百分点至-1.3%。对巴西、越南、印度、俄罗斯、非洲等国家和地区而出口增速分别为33.8%、24.1%、12.8%、12.5%、21%。机电产品、高新技术产品、劳动密集型产品为主要贡献项，增速均有所回升。从出口产品来看，机电产品、高新技术产品、劳动密集型产品出口回升。机电产品出口同比上升8.5%，较前值回升8.2个百分点，连续三个月正增长；高新技术产品同比上升0.2%，较前值上升1.2个百分点；劳动密集型产品出口同比上升22.2%，增长势头显著好于市场预期。其中，主要受全球半导体周期上行影响，机电产品出口增速较快，电子产业链相关的集成电路、电脑、音视频设备出口增速分别回升21.7、7.0、8.0个百分点至24.3%、3.9%、13.4%，其他机电产品出口增速回升7.2个百分点至1.6%。此外，高技术产品相关的船舶出口同比较前值上涨144.5个百分点至173.1%；汽车及汽车零件出口同比延续较快增长，同比增速分别为12.6%、16.2%，汽车产业链在去年全年高技术的影响下，出口优势延续。手机出口下降18.2%，降幅有所扩大，但出口数量增长12.8%，出口下滑主要受到价格下跌影响。从劳动密集型产品来看，1-2月延续去年12月的复苏态势，其中，家具较上月上涨23.7个百��点至36.1%；塑料、箱包、纺织品同比增速均提升至两位数，分别为22.9%、24.1%、15.5%；服装、鞋靴、玩具由降转增，增速分别为13.1%、14.4%、15.9%.进口增速超预期，电子产品、铁矿砂、原油等大宗商品表现较好，其中主要是数量因素贡献。受去年同期基数较低叠加铁矿砂、原油等大宗商品进口量明显增加的影响，1-2月进口增速表现较好，同比增长3.5%。从重点进口商品来看，高新技术产品进口金额同比上升10.5个百分点至11.9%，机电产品上升5.5个百分点至7.7%，农产品上涨0.4个百分点至-6.5%。受全球半导体销售周期上行，尤其是我国消费电子相关产品出口增加的影响，1-2月我国集成电路等电子产业链进口增速明显回升。其中，集成电路、二极管及类似半导体器件、电脑及零配件进口增速分别回升18.7、22.9、39.9个百分点至15.3%、5.0%、67.3%；煤、肥料量价齐跌，进口金额增速较上月分别回落28.5、23个百分点至-5.1%、-4%，进口数量同比较上月分别回落30.1、46.5个百分点至22.9%、62%；铁矿砂进口增速大幅下降至22.8%，较上月回落25.81个百分点；大豆进口增速持续下降至-22.2%，较上月扩大3.15个百分点。基数效应与海外需求韧性或支撑出口保持正增长，但出口增速回升的可持续性仍需观察，稳外贸、稳外资与扩大高水平对外开放仍需落到实处。低基数效应叠加海外需求仍有韧性，1-2月出口增速超预期，低基数下2024年全年出口增速或将保持正增长。后续看，一方面欧美等主要经济体的高通胀情况得到抑制，特别是欧洲经济相对疲软，或率先进入降息通道，全球经济存在企稳空间，我国出口面临的外需压力或边际好转。另一方面，外贸领域“保稳提质”政策延续出台，出口结构不断优化，或对出口增速形成一定支撑。进口方面，万亿国债落地形成实物工作量会带动相关商品需求，内需后续或会延续企稳，进口增速维持稳定也有支撑，但内需修复的幅度依然需要观察。2024年政府工作报告在扩大高水平对外开放方面做出具体部署，包括促进跨境电商等新业态健康发展，优化海外仓布局，支持加工贸易提档升级，拓展中间品贸易、绿色贸易等，这些措施将持续支撑我国货物与服务出口“保稳提质”。此外，政府工作报告也提出扩大鼓励外商投资目录，鼓励外资企业境内再投资，推动高质量共建“一带一路”走深走实，深化多双边和区域经济合作等措施，在稳外资方面也将持续市场政策效应。', 'content': '低基数叠加外需韧性，出口增速超出预期。1-2月出口同比增长7.1%，较去年末（2023年12月）提升4.8个百分点，预期为2.7%。出口增速超预期主要受以下因素影响，一是全球半导体销售上行周期对我国机电产品出口形成支撑；二是美国进入补库周期带来需求的额外增量；三是东盟及美国等经济仍有韧性带动出口数量改善。从环比来看，1-2月环比回落-9.8%，强于2014-2023年-20.4%的均值水平。海外经济基本面延续分化，我国对东盟、美国出口由负转正，对欧盟出口降幅显著。美国经济依然较为强劲，2023年四季度美国GDP环比折年率为3.3%，2024年1-2月新增非农业就业人数依然处于较高水平，而欧元区GDP仍在零增长附近徘徊，经济增长乏力，俄乌冲突持续扰动欧洲政治与经济运行。2月全球主要经济体制造业PMI均有不同程度上涨，摩根大通全球制造业PMI连续两月小幅回升至50.3%，重返荣枯线以上，其中2月份美国制造业PMI为52.2%，较上月回升1.5个百分点，欧元区和日本制造业景气度边际改善但仍偏弱，PMI指数位于荣枯线以下。总体上看，美国经济韧性较强对于我国外需起到了一定支撑作用。1月与2月中国PMI新出口订单分别为46.7%、46.4%，略高于2023年12月，表明制造业出口需求有所上涨。与海外经济体的基本面及制造业景气度运行一致，1-2月我国对东盟、美国出口增速均较前期显著上涨，对欧盟、日本的出口降幅进一步扩大。具体来看，1-2月，对东盟、美国出口由负转正，同比增速为6%、5%，较前值分别增长11、18.1个百分点，东盟仍是我国第一大贸易伙伴；对日本和韩国出口增速分别为-9.7%和-9.9%，分别较前值下降1.2、3.7个百分点；对欧盟出口降幅收窄8.9个百分点至-1.3%。对巴西、越南、印度、俄罗斯、非洲等国家和地区而出口增速分别为33.8%、24.1%、12.8%、12.5%、21%。机电产品、高新技术产品、劳动密集型产品为主要贡献项，增速均有所回升。从出口产品来看，机电产品、高新技术产品、劳动密集型产品出口回升。机电产品出口同比上升8.5%，较前值回升8.2个百分点，连续���个月正增长；高新技术产品同比上升0.2%，较前值上升1.2个百分点；劳动密集型产品出口同比上升22.2%，增长势头显著好于市场预期。其中，主要受全球半导体周期上行影响，机电产品出口增速较快，电子产业链相关的集成电路、电脑、音视频设备出口增速分别回升21.7、7.0、8.0个百分点至24.3%、3.9%、13.4%，其他机电产品出口增速回升7.2个百分点至1.6%。此外，高技术产品相关的船舶出口同比较前值上涨144.5个百分点至173.1%；汽车及汽车零件出口同比延续较快增长，同比增速分别为12.6%、16.2%，汽车产业链在去年全年高技术的影响下，出口优势延续。手机出口下降18.2%，降幅有所扩大，但出口数量增长12.8%，出口下滑主要受到价格下跌影响。从劳动密集型产品来看，1-2月延续去年12月的复苏态势，其中，家具较上月上涨23.7个百分点至36.1%；塑料、箱包、纺织品同比增速均提升至两位数，分别为22.9%、24.1%、15.5%；服装、鞋靴、玩具由降转增，增速分别为13.1%、14.4%、15.9%.进口增速超预期，电子产品、铁矿砂、原油等大宗商品表现较好，其中主要是数量因素贡献。受去年同期基数较低叠加铁矿砂、原油等大宗商品进口量明显增加的影响，1-2月进口增速表现较好，同比增长3.5%。从重点进口商品来看，高新技术产品进口金额同比上升10.5个百分点至11.9%，机电产品上升5.5个百分点至7.7%，农产品上涨0.4个百分点至-6.5%。受全球半导体销售周期上行，尤其是我国消费电子相关产品出口增加的影响，1-2月我国集成电路等电子产业链进口增速明显回升。其中，集成电路、二极管及类似半导体器件、电脑及零配件进口增速分别回升18.7、22.9、39.9个百分点至15.3%、5.0%、67.3%；煤、肥料量价齐跌，进口金额增速较上月分别回落28.5、23个百分点至-5.1%、-4%，进口数量同比较上月分别回落30.1、46.5个百分点至22.9%、62%；铁矿砂进口增速大幅下降至22.8%，较上月回落25.81个百分点；大豆进口增速持续下降至-22.2%，较上月扩大3.15个百分点。基数效应与海外需求韧性或支撑出口保持正增长，但出口增速回升的可持续性仍需观察，稳外贸、稳外资与扩大高水平对外开放仍需落到实处。低基数效应叠加海外需求仍有韧性，1-2月出口增速超预期，低基数下2024年全年出口增速或将保持正增长。后续看，一方面欧美等主要经济体的高通胀情况得到抑制，特别是欧洲经济相对疲软，或率先进入降息通道，全球经济存在企稳空间，我国出口面临的外需压力或边际好转。另一方面，外贸领域“保稳提质”政策延续出台，出口结构不断优化，或对出口增速形成一定支撑。进口方面，万亿国债落地形成实物工作量会带动相关商品需求，内需后续或会延续企稳，进口增速维持稳定也有支撑，但内需修复的幅度依然需要观察。2024年政府工作报告在扩大高水平对外开放方面做出具体部署，包括促进跨境电商等新业态健康发展，优化海外仓布局，支持加工贸易提档升级，拓展中间品贸易、绿色贸易等，这些措施将持续支撑我国货物与服务出口“保稳提质”。此外，政府工作报告也提出扩大鼓励外商投资目录，鼓励外资企业境内再投资，推动高质量共建“一带一路”走深走实，深化多双边和区域经济合作等措施，在稳外资方面也将持续市场政策效应。', 'authorid': UUID('dbe8a134-a365-56c2-8da6-f20d15300a37'), 'sentimentScore': 0.005714572966098785, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TBLPNVHUKRLRKT2PCOE62561T3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TBLPNVHUKRLRKT2PCOE62561T3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d2235d4f-96a4-5e3c-943c-c456c3ddb0ff'), 'title': 'Commentary on US February CPI data: the “last mile” of de-inflation', 'author': 'Yan Xiang, Xu Ruchun', 'orgName': '华福证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000065', 'orgSName': '华福证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEOLT+FRkn0u2g38GOBDG6w4=', 'researcher': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000223033', '11000339132'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEOLT+FRkn0u2g38GOBDG6w4=', 'site': 'Huafu Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华福证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626573617_1.pdf?1710323697000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626573617_1.pdf?1710323697000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on US February CPI data: the “last mile” of de-inflation', 'originalAuthor': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'originalContent': '事件：2月CPI同比3.2%，预期和前值均为3.1%；季调后CPI环比0.4%，预期0.4%，前值0.3%；核心CPI同比3.8%，预期3.7%，前值3.9%；核心CPI环比0.4%，预期0.3%，前值0.4%。投资要点：能源反弹+核心服务韧性较强，2月美国CPI同比回升且略超市场预期：2月美国CPI同比3.2%、核心CPI同比3.8%，均比预期值高0.1pct。1月底以来国际油价重回80美元关口，市场对2月美国CPI回升已有一定预期，但最后读数仍略偏高，反映美国通胀的韧性仍然相对较强。分项看，食品项环比明显回落（0.4%→0.0%），带动食品项同比（2.2%）降至2022年8月以来的新低；能源项大幅反弹（-0.9%→2.3%），主要源于1月以来国际油价温和上行，对2月美国CPI环比回升构成主要贡献；核心商品环比再度转正（-0.3%→0.1%），其中服装、运输产品（新车和二手车）、医疗护理贡献较大；核心服务环比略有回落（0.7%→0.5%），其中住房租金项环比虽然略有回落（0.6%→0.4%）但仍然构成主要贡献。往后看，对于美联储而言，去通胀的“最后一英里”仍然充满挑战，离2%目标仍有一定距离：无论是按0.3%还是0.2%的环比假设计算，后续美国CPI大概率继续回落，到8月降至2.4%-2.5%区间，离美联储2%目标尚有一定距离，且不排除有反弹风险。其原因在于现阶段美国经济尤其是服务业韧性较强，11月以来金融条件放松带动股市、房地产等各类资产再度上涨，对居民消费构成支撑。市场已计算入6月开启降息、全年降息100BP预期，但后续若通胀回落偏慢，意味着降息节点可能继续后延：通胀数据公布后，CME利率期货显示市场仍预期6月开启降息，但全年降息幅度降至75BP。过去8轮降息开启的节点，美国经济已处于持续下行中，非农就业、PMI降幅明显，通胀短期或仍在相对高位。因此美联储不需要等到通胀降到2%才开始降息，但需要看到经济有明显冷却迹象，尤其是PMI、非农就业等大幅度转冷，目前看仍然需要等待。而后续若通胀降幅低于预期，不排除降息节点继续后延，推迟到7月或更往后的9月。流动性宽松交易短期或面临一定阻碍，重点关注下周FOMC会议：数据公布后，10年期美债利率上行7BP、美元指数重新回到103以上，但美股反而上涨，或源于此前2个交易日已有一定回撤。但往后看，美债利率的趋势性下行仍需等待，美股短期或阶段性面临压力，重点关注下周FOMC会议。风险提示：一是美联储表态偏鹰；二是美国通胀下行偏慢。', 'content': 'Event: CPI in February was 3.2% year-on-year, with expectations and previous values \\u200b\\u200bof 3.1%; seasonally adjusted CPI was 0.4% month-on-month, with expectations of 0.4%, and previous values \\u200b\\u200bof 0.3%; core CPI was 3.8% year-on-year, with expectations of 3.7%, and previous values \\u200b\\u200bof 3.9%; Core CPI was 0.4% month-on-month, compared with the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.4%. Investment points: energy rebound + core services are highly resilient. U.S. CPI rebounded year-on-year in February and slightly exceeded market expectations: U.S. CPI in February was 3.2% year-on-year and core CPI was 3.8% year-on-year, both 0.1pct higher than expected. Since the end of January, international oil prices have returned to the $80 mark, and the market has certain expectations for a rebound in U.S. CPI in February. However, the final reading is still slightly higher, reflecting that the resilience of U.S. inflation is still relatively strong. In terms of items, the food item dropped significantly month-on-month (0.4%→0.0%), driving the food item year-on-year (2.2%) to a new low since August 2022; the energy item rebounded sharply (-0.9%→2.3%), mainly due to Since January, international oil prices have risen moderately, which has constituted a major contribution to the month-on-month rebound in U.S. CPI in February; core commodities have turned positive again month-on-month (-0.3% → 0.1%), among which clothing, transportation products (new and used cars), and medical care have contributed more. Large; core services fell slightly month-on-month (0.7% → 0.5%). Although housing rental items fell slightly month-on-month (0.6% → 0.4%), they still constituted the main contribution. Looking forward, for the Federal Reserve, the \"last mile\" of de-inflation is still full of challenges, and there is still a certain distance from the 2% target: whether calculated based on the 0.3% or 0.2% month-on-month assumption, there is a high probability that the US CPI will continue to fall in the future. , dropped to the range of 2.4%-2.5% by August, which is still a certain distance from the Fed’s 2% target, and the risk of rebound cannot be ruled out. The reason is that the U.S. economy, especially the service industry, is highly resilient at this stage. Since November, the easing of financial conditions has driven the stock market, real estate and other assets to rise again, supporting household consumption. The market has already calculated in expectations that interest rates will be cut in June and that interest rates will be cut by 100 BP throughout the year. However, if inflation falls slowly in the future, it means that the interest rate cut node may continue to be postponed: After the release of inflation data, CME interest rate futures showed that the market still expected that interest rates would be cut in June, but The full-year interest rate cut was reduced to 75BP. At the point when the past eight rounds of interest rate cuts began, the U.S. economy has been in a continuous decline, non-farm employment and PMI have dropped significantly, and inflation may remain relatively high in the short term. Therefore, the Fed does not need to wait until inflation drops to 2% before starting to cut interest rates, but it does need to see obvious signs of cooling in the economy, especially PMI and non-farm employment, which have turned sharply colder. At present, it still needs to wait. If the subsequent inflation decline is lower than expected, it is not ruled out that the interest rate cut point will be postponed to July or later to September. The liquidity easing transaction may face certain obstacles in the short term, and the focus will be on next week\\'s FOMC meeting: After the data was released, the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate rose by 7BP, and the U.S. dollar index returned to above 103. However, U.S. stocks rose instead, perhaps due to the two previous transactions. There has been a certain retracement on the day. But looking forward, we still have to wait for the downward trend in U.S. bond interest rates. U.S. stocks will face short-term or periodic pressures, and we will focus on next week\\'s FOMC meeting. Risk warning: First, the Fed\\'s stance is hawkish; second, U.S. inflation is declining slowly.', 'authorid': UUID('91584e59-c8cd-5c63-a616-39b00d7419c0'), 'sentimentScore': 0.5826840177178383, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'BB1H5NMNNG1EFQ54O6444E0P6FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'BB1H5NMNNG1EFQ54O6444E0P6FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('da66bbb8-d14d-5426-a299-1be1cf980369'), 'title': 'Interpretation of relevant content of the 2024 Government Work Report on the optional consumer industry: [Policy Interpretation] Expand domestic demand, optimize structure, and boost confidence', 'author': 'Xiao Huaiyu, Ning Lijie', 'orgName': '联合资信评估股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80002172', 'orgSName': '联合资信', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEDmR7a6h7VdTc8CS2E3elbo=', 'researcher': '肖怀玉,宁立杰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000432843', '11000432841'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEDmR7a6h7VdTc8CS2E3elbo=', 'site': 'United Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '联合资信', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626566897_1.pdf?1710321672000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626566897_1.pdf?1710321672000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of relevant content of the 2024 Government Work Report on the optional consumer industry: [Policy Interpretation] Expand domestic demand, optimize structure, and boost confidence', 'originalAuthor': '肖怀玉,宁立杰', 'originalContent': '【摘要】2023年以来，各地各部门围绕促进汽车、家居、品牌消费和餐饮业高质量发展等，推动出台支持恢复和扩大消费的系列政策措施。随着扩内需和促消费政策的落地见效，我国服务消费市场持续向好，线下消费潜力不断释放。为实现经济稳步回升的目标，《2024年政府工作报告》提出了一系列发掘消费潜力、调整消费结构、优化消费环境、推动外贸发展等方面的工作任务，这也体现了消费在支撑国民经济回升、拉动经济增长的重要性。2023年促消费政策发力，居民消费有所回暖《政府工作报告》（以下简称“《报告》”）在回顾2023年度工作中提及“围绕扩大内需、优化结构、提振信心、防范化解风险，延续优化一批阶段性政策，及时推出一批新政策，打出有力有效的政策组合拳”“出台支持汽车、家居、电子产品、旅游等消费政策，大宗消费稳步回升，生活服务消费加快恢复。”2023年，促消费政策不断，居民消费持续回暖。各地各部门围��促进汽车、家居、品牌消费和餐饮业高质量发展等，推动出台支持恢复和扩大消费的系列政策措施，并举办一系列活动，居民线下活动恢复，居民消费对经济贡献有所提升。为促进消费复苏，国务院办公厅转发国家发展改革委《关于恢复和扩大消费措施的通知》，把恢复和扩大消费摆在优先位置，从稳定大宗消费、扩大服务消费、促进农村消费、拓展新型消费、完善消费设施、优化消费环境等方面提出针对性举措，进一步释放消费潜力。2023年7月12日，商务部等13部门发布《关于促进家居消费若干措施的通知》，从提升供给质量、创新消费场景、改善消费条件、优化消费环境等方面提出多项政策举措，并推动业态模式创新发展。', 'content': '[Abstract] Since 2023, various localities and departments have promoted the introduction of a series of policies and measures to support the recovery and expansion of consumption, focusing on promoting the high-quality development of automobiles, home furnishings, brand consumption and catering industries. With the implementation of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, my country\\'s service consumption market continues to improve, and offline consumption potential continues to be released. In order to achieve the goal of steady economic recovery, the \"2024 Government Work Report\" proposed a series of tasks in terms of exploring consumption potential, adjusting consumption structure, optimizing the consumption environment, and promoting foreign trade development. This also reflects the role of consumption in supporting the recovery of the national economy. , the importance of stimulating economic growth. In 2023, policies to promote consumption will be implemented, and household consumption will pick up. The \"Government Work Report\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Report\") mentioned in reviewing the work in 2023 that \"focusing on expanding domestic demand, optimizing structure, boosting confidence, preventing and defusing risks\" , continue to optimize a number of phased policies, launch a number of new policies in a timely manner, and create a powerful and effective policy combination. \"Policies to support consumption of automobiles, home furnishings, electronic products, tourism, etc. have been introduced. Bulk consumption has steadily rebounded, and consumption of daily services has accelerated. \"In 2023, policies to promote consumption will continue, and household consumption will continue to pick up. Various localities and departments have promoted the introduction of a series of policies and measures to support the recovery and expansion of consumption, focusing on promoting the high-quality development of automobiles, home furnishings, brand consumption and catering industries, and organized a series of activities. Residents\\' offline activities have resumed, and residents\\' consumption has contributed to the economy. promote. In order to promote the recovery of consumption, the General Office of the State Council forwarded the National Development and Reform Commission\\'s \"Notice on Measures to Restore and Expand Consumption\", giving priority to the restoration and expansion of consumption, starting from stabilizing bulk consumption, expanding service consumption, promoting rural consumption, and expanding new consumption Propose targeted measures in terms of improving consumption facilities and optimizing the consumption environment to further release consumption potential. On July 12, 2023, 13 departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued the \"Notice on Several Measures to Promote Home Consumption\", proposing a number of policy measures from aspects such as improving supply quality, innovating consumption scenarios, improving consumption conditions, and optimizing the consumption environment, and promoted Innovative development of business models.', 'authorid': UUID('4bfb4f47-d508-5491-9af3-13b96f082bc9'), 'sentimentScore': 0.926056919619441, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GMDVI1O54VFHAEP9A9LB2T747BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GMDVI1O54VFHAEP9A9LB2T747BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a0c049d9-04af-5b30-a8b7-3c83fcbd31fe'), 'title': 'Comments on U.S. CPI in February: Inflation level has rebounded slightly, but the impact on the timing of interest rate cuts in 2024 may be limited', 'author': 'He Ning, Pan Weizhen', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEBNVzt/LXrpzmK704eMqKJc=', 'researcher': '何宁,潘纬桢', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332', '11000416632'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEBNVzt/LXrpzmK704eMqKJc=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626538208_1.pdf?1710320350000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626538208_1.pdf?1710320350000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on U.S. CPI in February: Inflation level has rebounded slightly, but the impact on the timing of interest rate cuts in 2024 may be limited', 'originalAuthor': '何宁,潘纬桢', 'originalContent': '事件：美国公布2月最新通胀数据。其中CPI同比上升3.2%，略超过市场预期，环比上升0.4%；核心CPI同比上升3.8%，环比上升0.4%，均略超过市场预期。通胀水平略超预期反弹，去通胀之路“前路仍漫漫”1.总体通胀略超预期反弹，核心通胀略有下行。美国2月CPI同比上升3.2%，略超过市场预期。环比增速较1月上涨0.1个百分点至0.4%。核心CPI同比上涨3.8%，环比上升0.4%。总的来看，美国去通胀进程中短期内或处于“攻坚期”，当前通胀水平虽然正在向着美联储的目标前行，但所需时长或仍存在较多的不确定性。2.分项看，能源通胀降幅收窄，核心通胀缓慢下行。具体而言，2月能源项同比下降1.9%，跌幅较1月份收窄2.7个百分点；食品方面，2月份食品项同比上升2.2%，较1月份下降0.4个百分点，连续19个月下降；核心CPI方面，2月核心CPI同比上升3.8%，环比上升0.4%。同比与环比增速分别较1月下降0.1个百分点、持平。房租通胀2月录得较大幅度放缓。3.去通胀进程仍在持续中，但“前路仍漫漫”。2月的通胀数据显示美国去通胀进程存在着一定的“波动性”，目前仍在“攻坚期”。虽然去通胀进度较慢，但我们认为美国去通胀进程仍在持续中。往后看，后续通胀水平的下行将更加依靠核心服务的变动，从当前的情况来看，核心服务大概率将继续缓坡下行。我们认为美国去通胀进程整体还在持续，其问题在于本轮去通胀所需时间可能较漫长，且后续货币政策对通胀水平的影响亦需要密切注意。美联储或需更多数据对降息时点进行确定从2月份数据来看，当前通胀进程处于缓坡下行的阶段，虽然距离美联储的目标区间仍存在一定的距离，但结合前期美联储主席鲍威尔表示不需要等到通胀下降至2%才开始放松货币政策，美联储距离对降息有信心已经不远。只要通胀走势符合预期，降息的过程“可以而且将会在今年开始”。因此联储2024年降息是一个大概率事件，当月通胀数据或会对降息时点影响有限，通胀趋势的变动对当前联储的判断才是最重要的。结合2月非农数据来看，美国劳动力市场仍处于再平衡的过程之中，劳动力市场的供需关系亦在逐渐改善，这意味着对通胀水平的支撑力度将会逐渐放缓。综合上述两点来看，本轮美国去通胀进程可能是一个较为长期的过程，但随着去通胀进程的继续，实际利率水平也在提升，我们认为只要去通胀进程不发生大幅波动，美联储或将会更倾向于进行“预防式降息”，以避免经济在具有限制性的利率水平下持续承压。基准条件下，在去通胀进程未发生逆转的情况下，我们仍倾向于认为美联储将会在6月份进行第一次降息，但再后的降息节奏与幅度会相对较灵活，整体幅度也不会很大。不过从中期角度看，美联储的利率水平可能会较大幅度的高于疫情前水平。风险提示：国际局势紧张引发通胀超预期，美国经济超预期衰退。', 'content': 'Event: The United States released the latest inflation data for February. Among them, CPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations, and increased by 0.4% month-on-month; core CPI increased by 3.8% year-on-year, and increased by 0.4% month-on-month, both slightly exceeding market expectations. Inflation rebounded slightly more than expected, and the road to deflation is still long. 1. Overall inflation rebounded slightly more than expected, and core inflation declined slightly. U.S. CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year in February, slightly exceeding market expectations. The month-on-month growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points from January to 0.4%. Core CPI increased by 3.8% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. Generally speaking, the U.S. de-inflation process may be in a \"tough period\" in the short to medium term. Although the current inflation level is moving towards the Fed\\'s goal, there may still be more uncertainty about how long it will take. 2. Looking at the breakdown, the decline in energy inflation narrowed and core inflation slowly declined. Specifically, the energy item fell by 1.9% year-on-year in February, 2.7 percentage points narrower than that in January; in terms of food, the food item increased by 2.2% year-on-year in February, down 0.4 percentage points from January, and has declined for 19 consecutive months; core In terms of CPI, core CPI in February increased by 3.8% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. The year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates respectively decreased by 0.1 percentage points and remained the same as those in January. Rent inflation slowed significantly in February. 3. The de-inflation process is still ongoing, but “the road ahead is still long.” February\\'s inflation data shows that there is a certain degree of \"volatility\" in the United States\\' de-inflation process, which is still in a \"tough period.\" Although the progress of de-inflation is slow, we believe that the de-inflation process in the United States is still ongoing. Looking forward, the subsequent decline in inflation will rely more on changes in core services. Judging from the current situation, there is a high probability that core services will continue to decline slowly. We believe that the overall de-inflation process in the United States is still continuing. The problem is that this round of de-inflation may take a long time, and the impact of subsequent monetary policies on inflation levels also needs to be paid close attention to. The Fed may need more data to determine the timing of interest rate cuts. Judging from February data, the current inflation process is in a gentle downward slope. Although there is still a certain distance from the Fed\\'s target range, combined with the previous Fed Chairman Powell\\'s statement that there is no need to wait until Only when inflation falls to 2% does it begin to loosen monetary policy, and the Fed is not far away from becoming confident in cutting interest rates. As long as inflation moves in line with expectations, the process of cutting interest rates \"can and will begin this year.\" Therefore, the Fed\\'s interest rate cut in 2024 is a high-probability event. The inflation data for that month may have limited impact on the timing of the rate cut. Changes in inflation trends are the most important for the current Fed\\'s judgment. Judging from February non-agricultural data, the U.S. labor market is still in the process of rebalancing, and the supply and demand relationship in the labor market is gradually improving, which means that the support for inflation will gradually slow down. Based on the above two points, this round of US de-inflation process may be a relatively long-term process, but as the de-inflation process continues, the real interest rate level is also increasing. We believe that as long as the de-inflation process does not fluctuate significantly, the Federal Reserve may There will be a greater tendency to carry out \"precautionary interest rate cuts\" to avoid continued pressure on the economy at restrictive interest rate levels. Under baseline conditions, if the de-inflation process has not been reversed, we still tend to believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in June, but the pace and magnitude of subsequent interest rate cuts will be relatively flexible, and the overall magnitude will not be Very big. However, from a medium-term perspective, the Fed\\'s interest rate level may be significantly higher than the pre-epidemic level. Risk warning: Tensions in the international situation have triggered higher-than-expected inflation, and the U.S. economy has declined beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('d47cb679-02a6-5e72-a1c5-22a80f95708b'), 'sentimentScore': -0.05355057120323181, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'NJQVKKH7069UP0H7CT1DL3AHB7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:53 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'NJQVKKH7069UP0H7CT1DL3AHB7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('836d49d5-462c-54f7-acd4-03204308096f'), 'title': 'Macro daily: U.S. CPI slightly exceeded expectations in February', 'author': 'Cai Shaoli, Gao Cong', 'orgName': '华泰期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80055521', 'orgSName': '华泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEOHJWdi9z2QBagpyIiWLYNM=', 'researcher': '蔡劭立,高聪', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000304033', '11000304231'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEOHJWdi9z2QBagpyIiWLYNM=', 'site': 'Huatai Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626537970_1.pdf?1710319546000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626537970_1.pdf?1710319546000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro daily: U.S. CPI slightly exceeded expectations in February', 'originalAuthor': '蔡劭立,高聪', 'originalContent': '策略摘要商品期货：整��中性，关注芳烃系化工（EB、PX、TA）、生猪、贵金属等结构性买入套保机会；铁矿卖出套保；股指期货：逢低买入套保。核心观点市场分析宏观预期有望迎来上修契机。海关总署公布的1-2月进出口数据明显改善，其中去年海外的高库存导致的低出口基数是原因之一，但就算剔除季节性后仍有出口明显改善，分项来看，纺织服装、塑料制品和地产后周期的家电、家具等产品出口继续回升。现阶段核心矛盾在于复工复产进度偏慢，以及2024年后整体债务发行节奏平稳，政策超前发力的迹象不明显。那么去年作为拖累项的出口改善或将成为宏观预期上修的契机，后续还需要警惕地产的拖累风险。全国两会的历史规律：复盘近11年的两会资产样本：A股受益明显，两会后一周和后一月中证1000和中证500表现较强，样本上涨概率在70%左右；商品在两会期间有所承压，两会后逐步企稳修复。美国2月CPI略超预期。美国2月CPI同比增3.2%，较前值增长0.1%，核心CPI同比3.8%，较前值下降0.1%，但核心CPI环比增0.4%，为八个月最大升幅，数据继续凸显通胀韧性。数据公布后，贵金属表现仍具韧性，关注下周美联储是否释放QT转缓信号。节后第三周，商品交投仍清淡。黑色方面，整体消费启动慢，处于低产量低消费的状态，短期仍需警惕调整风险；有色整体受到美元走弱提振，但仍处于季节性累库阶段，下游需求平淡；能源短期受到俄乌冲突导致的炼厂加工量下降以及红海事件的支撑；化工板块芳烃线具有韧性，关注苯乙烯、PX、PTA的机会，2月纺服、塑料制品等出口回升对需求端亦有支撑；农产品方面，关注饲料和养殖板块，生猪目前是供需双弱格局，短期驱动看二次育肥的变量。贵金属方面，美联储沃勒“反扭曲操作”的相关言论带动美联储降息计价触底回升，结合3月议息会议或将讨论放缓QT，贵金属多配窗口重新打开。风险地缘政治风险（能源板块上行风险）；全球经济超预期下行（风险资产下行风险）；美联储超预期收紧（风险资产下行风险）；海外流动性风险冲击（风险资产下行风险）。', 'content': 'Strategy summary: Commodity futures: overall neutral, focusing on structural buying and hedging opportunities such as aromatic chemicals (EB, PX, TA), pigs, precious metals, etc.; iron ore selling for hedging; stock index futures: buying on dips for hedging. The core view of market analysis is that macroeconomic expectations are expected to usher in an opportunity for upward revision. The import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs improved significantly from January to February. Among them, the low export base caused by high overseas inventory last year was one of the reasons. However, even after excluding seasonality, exports still improved significantly. In terms of items, textiles and clothing , plastic products, and exports of home appliances, furniture and other products in the post-real estate cycle continue to rebound. The core contradiction at this stage is that the resumption of work and production is slow, and the overall pace of debt issuance after 2024 is stable, and there are no obvious signs of policy advancement. Then the improvement in exports, which was a drag item last year, may become an opportunity for upward revision of macroeconomic expectations. In the future, we need to be wary of the drag risk of real estate. The historical pattern of the National Two Sessions: Review of asset samples from the Two Sessions in the past 11 years: A-shares benefited significantly, the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 performed strongly one week and one month after the Two Sessions, and the probability of the sample rising was about 70%; commodities rose during the Two Sessions There was some pressure during the period, but it gradually stabilized and recovered after the two sessions. U.S. CPI slightly exceeded expectations in February. The U.S. CPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year in February, an increase of 0.1% from the previous value. The core CPI increased by 3.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous value. However, the core CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, the largest increase in eight months. The data continues to highlight the resilience of inflation. After the data was released, the performance of precious metals remained resilient, and attention will be paid to whether the Federal Reserve releases a signal that QT will slow down next week. In the third week after the holiday, commodity trading remained light. On the black side, overall consumption has started slowly and is in a state of low output and consumption. In the short term, we still need to be vigilant about adjustment risks; non-ferrous metals are generally boosted by the weakening of the US dollar, but are still in the seasonal accumulation stage, and downstream demand is flat; energy is affected by Russia and Ukraine in the short term. The decline in refinery processing volume caused by the conflict and the support of the Red Sea incident; the aromatics line of the chemical sector is resilient, focusing on opportunities for styrene, PX, and PTA. The rebound in exports of textiles, clothing, plastic products, etc. in February also supports the demand side; agricultural products , paying attention to the feed and breeding sectors, pigs are currently in a weak supply and demand situation, and the short-term driver depends on the variables of secondary fattening. In terms of precious metals, Fed Waller\\'s remarks about \"anti-distortion operations\" drove the Fed\\'s interest rate cut pricing to bottom out and rebound. Combined with the March interest rate meeting, which may discuss slowing down QT, the precious metals long-allocation window has reopened. Risks include geopolitical risks (upward risks for the energy sector); unexpected downturns in the global economy (downward risks for risky assets); unexpected tightening by the Federal Reserve (downward risks for risky assets); overseas liquidity risk impacts (downward risks for risky assets).', 'authorid': UUID('1f2a6e53-dc21-5b64-b53e-783c1fe16451'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8924829289317131, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'ACCAUMQIQI170RTEP0B3G7ROFFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:56 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'ACCAUMQIQI170RTEP0B3G7ROFFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3379f150-5f4e-55c6-944e-d102b9b7d268'), 'title': 'Macro Research Weekly Report: The two sessions conclude this week, and the short-term market may face adjustments', 'author': 'Xu Ying', 'orgName': '麦高证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80049237', 'orgSName': '麦高证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEISxC3XDMo/U9oOYNNyrHXw=', 'researcher': '徐滢', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000449878'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEISxC3XDMo/U9oOYNNyrHXw=', 'site': 'Mago Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '麦高证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626537111_1.pdf?1710320967000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626537111_1.pdf?1710320967000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Research Weekly Report: The two sessions conclude this week, and the short-term market may face adjustments', 'originalAuthor': '徐滢', 'originalContent': '上周国内主要新闻：1.习近平主席参加江苏代表团时表示要因地制宜发展新质生产力。2.上交所、深交所联合举办量化私募机构交易合规培训。3.证监会主席吴清系统闸释资本市场监管思路，定调监管工作的重点为“两强两严”。4.海关总署发布数据显示，2024年前2个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值6.61万亿元人民币，同比增长8.7%上周国际主要新闻：1.美联储主席绝威尔表示，今年可能适合降息。2.美联储公布福皮书，即12个地方联储编制的经济形势调查报告3.欧洲中央银行决定继续维持三大关键利率不变。4.欧盟委员会5日公布欧盟首个《欧洲国防工业战略》，就加强欧盟国防工业能力明确了长期愿景。5.2024年非洲能源大会开幕，探讨实现非洲能源转型的可持续解决方案。一周市场回顾：上周正值两会召开，沪深两市维持反弹后的震荡走势，沪市表现强于深市，除上证指数收涨外，其他主要指数均下跌。两市成交额明显姜缩，日均交易额再度回落至万亿元之下，北向资金也是一改连续几周的净流入，上周呈现出小幅净流出。总体来看，市场经过连续上涨后，累积了一定的获利盘，短期市场资金有获利了结的需求。上周召开的两会传达了较多的信息，政府工作报告不仅对今年的经济运行目标进行量化，同时还提出，要多出有利于稳预期、稳增长、稳就业的政策，谨慎出台收缩性抑制性举措。强化宏观政策逆周期和路周期调节，继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，加强政策工具创新和协调配合。增强资本市场内在稳定性。另外，在经济主题记者会上，证监会主席吴清系统闸释了资本市场监管思路，定调监管工作的重点为“两强两严”，即“强本强基、严监严管”。综合上述信息，政策导向利于资本市场稳定和发展，市场环境较为积极。同时，政府工作报告还提出，要大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力。新质生产力作为重点题材在会上反复提及，盘中相关概念股持续发酵，成为未来重点关注的方向。随着本���两会闭幕，市场热度将有所降温，资金获利了结的可能性较大，短期市场或将面临调整。风险提示：政策不及预期，国际贸易政策风险，地缘政治冲突风险。', 'content': 'Major domestic news last week: 1. When President Xi Jinping attended the Jiangsu delegation, he expressed the need to develop new productive forces according to local conditions. 2. The Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange jointly organized transaction compliance training for quantitative private equity institutions. 3. Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, explained the capital market supervision ideas and set the focus of supervision work on \"two strong and two strict\". 4. Data released by the General Administration of Customs show that in the first two months of 2024, my country’s total import and export value of goods trade was 6.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. Major international news last week: 1. Federal Reserve Chairman Will Will said that this year may Suitable for interest rate cuts. 2. The Federal Reserve released the Economic Situation Survey Report compiled by 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks. 3. The European Central Bank decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged. 4. The European Commission announced the EU\\'s first \"European Defense Industry Strategy\" on the 5th, clarifying the long-term vision for strengthening the EU\\'s defense industry capabilities. 5. The 2024 African Energy Conference opens to explore sustainable solutions for Africa’s energy transformation. Weekly market review: Last week coincided with the two sessions. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets maintained a volatile trend after rebounding. The Shanghai stock market performed better than the Shenzhen stock market. Except for the Shanghai Composite Index, which closed up, other major indexes fell. The transaction volume of the two cities has shrunk significantly, and the average daily transaction volume has once again fallen below one trillion yuan. Northbound funds have also changed from net inflows for several consecutive weeks, showing a small net outflow last week. Overall, the market has accumulated a certain amount of profits after continuous rises, and there is a demand for short-term market funds to take profits. The two sessions held last week conveyed a lot of information. The government work report not only quantified this year\\'s economic performance targets, but also proposed more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, stabilizing growth, and stabilizing employment, and cautiously introducing contractionary restraints. Sexual initiatives. We will strengthen countercyclical and cyclical adjustments to macroeconomic policies, continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies, and strengthen innovation and coordination of policy tools. Enhance the inherent stability of the capital market. In addition, at the economic-themed press conference, Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, elaborated on the ideas of capital market supervision and set the focus of supervision work as \"two strong and two strict\", that is, \"strengthening the foundation and strengthening the foundation, strict supervision and strict management.\" Based on the above information, policy guidance is conducive to the stability and development of the capital market, and the market environment is relatively positive. At the same time, the government work report also proposed that we should vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerate the development of new productive forces. New productivity was repeatedly mentioned as a key theme at the meeting, and related concept stocks continued to ferment during the session, becoming a key focus in the future. With the conclusion of the two sessions this week, the market heat will cool down, capital profit-taking is more likely, and the short-term market may face adjustments. Risk warning: policies that fall short of expectations, international trade policy risks, and geopolitical conflict risks.', 'authorid': UUID('a7f043a0-c180-553f-9a30-81d8998aa3b6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.10696574579924345, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '0F3TBC5EEEJPD290V5DQRL9C13VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:45:58 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '0F3TBC5EEEJPD290V5DQRL9C13VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8a017a5d-c09b-5c09-96f3-dd21487f2cfd'), 'title': 'The Courage to Act: Lessons from the Liquidity Trap in Developed Countries', 'author': 'Yang Weiqiu, Meng Zijun', 'orgName': '国元证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001043', 'orgSName': '国元证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEFYAxokPzCbHb1CsudpdyD4=', 'researcher': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000176619', '11000337831'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEFYAxokPzCbHb1CsudpdyD4=', 'site': 'Guoyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国元证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626537081_1.pdf?1710318517000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626537081_1.pdf?1710318517000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The Courage to Act: Lessons from the Liquidity Trap in Developed Countries', 'originalAuthor': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'originalContent': '流动性陷阱指的是利率水平的下降无法带来广义货币的派生，即无论央行投放多少流动性，都积蓄在商业银行体系内，无法进入实体，进而无法拉动经济和物价的上涨。流动性陷阱的经典案例是2007-2008年的美国、2008-2014年的欧元区及上世纪90年代的日本，这几个样本的共性是在一次金融系统性风险发酵之后，实体的悲观预期开始浮出水面，并严重干扰了实体融资的积极性。政策上的不谋而合之处是：这三个经济体都在用非常极致的宽松政策试图解决流动性陷阱问题，在流动性陷阱发生前，三个经济体的基准利率都远远高于如今中国的基准利率水平，而在走出流动性陷阱之时，这三个经济体的基准利率都非常接近于0。差异在于：这三个经济体在面对相同的问题时，行动的魄力是不同的:1）美国的行动是最及时迅猛的，在2008年全年时间里，美国的宽松政策迅速让利率从4.25%降到0.25%，于是，那一轮流动性问题没有拖很久，2009年美国就走出了信用收缩的泥潭；2）可能因为欧元区的协调问题，欧元区虽宽松政策来得及时，但利率下调却偏缓慢，直到2013年，欧元区才将自己的基准利率调到0.25%左右，于是，欧元区的信用投放在2014年方才见底；3）日本的问题是，政策的应对就来得很迟，日本经济泡沫破灭始于1990年，但日本首次降息的时间是1991年7月，此间间隔的时间长达一年半左右，此外，日本利率下调的过程也很缓慢，在2001年其基准利率下调到0.1%后，其信用才随后见底。因此，我们也看到了这三个经济体的经济表现的差异：1）美国在2009年经济探底后，迅速走出危机模式，经济回到了韧性状态；2）欧元区在当时虽在美国带动下完成了第一波修复，但又进入了二次衰退后，经济才得以平稳；3）日本经济则经历了十年的衰退过程，在经济增长速度从7.5%左右被拖到负增长之后，日本经济才稳定下来，但此时，日本的经济增长已经习惯性停滞。发达国家的先例所给予的启示如下：1）在发生流动性陷阱时，不要考虑利率的线性，在极端的悲观预期下，利率必须以陡峭的斜率向下，这就是一个非常规化的宽松过程；2）不要考虑凯恩斯主义的问题，从三个国家的先例来看，货币依然有效，大家对货币无效的认知是因为货币宽松的力度慢于预期衰退的速度；3）时间非常宝贵，政策越早决断，经济受伤害的时间就越短，后续经济的恢复也会相应更加容易。在资产配置上，流动性陷阱环境下的唯一占优资产是债券，若流动性陷阱无改观，则即使经济脉冲式上扬，债券市场的反应也极弱。风险提示：地缘政治冲突加剧，美国金融系统危机爆发，国内宏观政策落地不及预期等', 'content': \"The liquidity trap refers to the fact that the decline in interest rates cannot bring about the derivation of broad money. That is, no matter how much liquidity the central bank releases, it is accumulated in the commercial banking system and cannot enter the entity, thereby failing to drive the economy and price increases. The classic cases of liquidity traps are the United States from 2007 to 2008, the Eurozone from 2008 to 2014, and Japan in the 1990s. The commonality of these samples is that after a financial systemic risk fermented, pessimistic expectations of entities began. surfaced and seriously interfered with the entity's enthusiasm for financing. What coincides in policy is that these three economies are using very extreme easing policies to try to solve the liquidity trap problem. Before the liquidity trap occurs, the benchmark interest rates of the three economies are much higher than Today, China’s benchmark interest rates are very close to 0 when they emerge from the liquidity trap. The difference is that when these three economies face the same problem, their courage to act is different: 1) The United States’ actions were the most timely and swift. Throughout 2008, the United States’ easing policy quickly brought interest rates from 4.25% dropped to 0.25%. As a result, that round of liquidity problems did not drag on for long, and the United States emerged from the quagmire of credit contraction in 2009; 2) Perhaps due to coordination problems in the Eurozone, although the Eurozone’s easing policies were timely, the interest rate The downward adjustment was slow. It was not until 2013 that the Eurozone adjusted its benchmark interest rate to around 0.25%. Therefore, the Eurozone’s credit did not bottom out until 2014; 3) Japan’s problem is that the policy response comes very quickly. Lately, Japan's economic bubble burst in 1990, but Japan's first interest rate cut was in July 1991, with an interval of about one and a half years. In addition, Japan's interest rate reduction process was also very slow. In 2001, its benchmark After the interest rate was lowered to 0.1%, its credit subsequently bottomed out. Therefore, we have also seen differences in the economic performance of these three economies: 1) After the economic bottom in 2009, the United States quickly came out of crisis mode and the economy returned to a resilient state; 2) Although the Eurozone was driven by the United States at that time, After completing the first wave of repairs but entering a second recession, the economy stabilized; 3) The Japanese economy experienced a decade of recession. After the economic growth rate was dragged from about 7.5% to negative growth, the Japanese economy It stabilized, but at this time, Japan's economic growth had habitually stagnated. The lessons learned from the precedents of developed countries are as follows: 1) When a liquidity trap occurs, do not consider the linearity of interest rates. Under extreme pessimistic expectations, interest rates must decline at a steep slope. This is an unconventional easing process. ;2) Don’t consider Keynesian issues. Judging from the precedents of the three countries, currency is still effective. Everyone’s perception of currency ineffectiveness is because the intensity of monetary easing is slower than the expected recession; 3) Time is very precious, and policies The earlier the decision is made, the shorter the time for economic damage will be, and the subsequent economic recovery will be correspondingly easier. In terms of asset allocation, the only dominant asset in a liquidity trap environment is bonds. If the liquidity trap does not change, even if the economy rises in a pulse-like manner, the reaction of the bond market will be extremely weak. Risk warning: geopolitical conflicts intensify, the crisis in the US financial system breaks out, and the implementation of domestic macro policies falls short of expectations, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('06a6231a-b667-541e-b1fd-3c96f32864dc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.21031439118087292, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'QM8S0B55H9APSI7V25O3CCU0AFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:46:01 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'QM8S0B55H9APSI7V25O3CCU0AFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('4d4f4cb5-767c-5550-a0a5-f00501484e59'), 'title': 'U.S. CPI Commentary (2024.2): Wage inflation transmission has resumed, and the Fed’s “first cut” may be postponed again', 'author': 'Qin Tai', 'orgName': '华金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000134', 'orgSName': '华金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': '/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEM3iaNUwGZ1GIg2oJQo/68A=', 'researcher': '秦泰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249937'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEM3iaNUwGZ1GIg2oJQo/68A=', 'site': 'Huajin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626495388_1.pdf?1710317097000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626495388_1.pdf?1710317097000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. CPI Commentary (2024.2): Wage inflation transmission has resumed, and the Fed’s “first cut” may be postponed again', 'originalAuthor': '秦泰', 'originalContent': '投资要点美国2月CPI、核心CPI涨幅均超预期，其中总体CPI受能源价格上涨的推升作用幅度较大。据美国劳工统计局当地时间3月12日上午公布的数据，美国2月CPI（经季节调整，下同）、核心CPI同比分别增长3.2%、3.8%，分别较1月反弹0.1个百分点和小幅回落0.1个百分点，均明显强于市场预期。通胀能否稳定较快向2%的长期目标区间回落是当前美联储何时进行首次降息决策的最重要决定因素，2月数据的超预期表现或将令美联储更加犹豫谨慎。从总体CPI的角度来看，年初以来原油价格的上涨正在以较为直接的路径向能源CPI传导，后者2月环比涨幅高达2.3%，创出近6个月以来新高。当前加沙地区和红海区域地缘政治冲突严峻、复杂难解，沙特等OPEC重点产油国延长自愿减产协议，预计国际油价仍将���持高位，在连续5个月粘滞于3.1%-3.3%的狭窄区间之后，美国总体CPI同比增速的回落之路仍非坦途。同样超预期的核心CPI则呈现出三大结构性特征：1）新一轮薪资高位向通胀的传导效应成型；2）本轮美联储加息并未对房价和房租形成大幅抑制；3）美国居民消费意愿强劲。三大结构性强劲表现一旦持续数月，美联储“首降”的时点都将被迫推迟。2月美国核心CPI同比高达3.8%，仅较1月小幅回落0.1个百分点，过去5个月累计仅下行0.3个百分点，下行速度大幅放缓，环比涨幅更高达0.36%，为过去10个月次高水平，并呈现三大结构性走强的特征。1）两大主要受数月前薪资增速传导效应决定的分项：核心非耐用消费品和除房租外的核心服务CPI环比均大幅反弹，2月环比分别增长达0.32%和0.52%，涨幅均显著高于过去12个月平均水平，显示美国薪资增速在过去数个月中所呈现的高位黏性已经开始滞后地向美国核心CPI形成传导，美国的“薪资通胀螺旋”在薪资向通胀传导一侧不但未有缓解，甚至有所强化。2）2月房租环比涨幅仍超过0.4%，大幅高于疫情前数年的正常均值涨幅；考虑到房租往往是此前5个月房价的滞后、平均意义上的综合体现，本轮美联储的迅速加息路径实际上并未对美国房价和租金造成实质性的抑制效果，而这一点也将阻碍美国核心CPI的下行。3）2月美国耐用消费品环比跌幅仅-0.06%，较1月收窄达0.4个百分点，是过去9个月的连续环比下跌过程至今跌幅最小单月，该分项与美国居民消费需求的关联度较高，显示美国当前仍处于财政扩张、居民收入高增驱动的需求偏热周期阶段，强劲的消费需求也将对美国“薪资通胀螺旋”形成强化作用。我们小幅上修美国核心CPI预测，预计在5月同比降至3.4%之后，将基本维持在这一“平台”水平直至10月，唯有在11-12月预计才可小幅下行至3.3%左右，仍远高于美联储2%的长期通胀目标。加之美国潜在劳动力供给空间有限，年内失业率可能将再度有所下行，我们维持美联储首次降息预计发生在9月的相对市场更为谨慎的预测不变。非美发达经济体经济增长前景普遍趋于恶化，核心通胀回落已经并预计将持续快于美国，欧英央行被迫提前于美联储在6月实施降息的概率提升，年初至今美元指数的上行趋势或远未完结，不可低估其所带来的全球流动性紧缩效应，我国货币政策宽松性操作年内仍可能持续受到人民币被动贬值压力的牵制，财政政策维持或超出两会年度预算的扩张规模对于今年5%左右高质量增长目标的重要性进一步提升。风险提示：美联储降息晚于预期导致美元指数上冲、限制我国货币宽松空间风险。', 'content': 'Investment Points: The U.S. CPI and core CPI rose more than expected in February, with overall CPI being driven up significantly by rising energy prices. According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on the morning of March 12, local time, the U.S. CPI (seasonally adjusted, the same below) and core CPI increased by 3.2% and 3.8% respectively year-on-year in February, rebounding 0.1 percentage points and slightly from January respectively. fell 0.1 percentage points, both significantly stronger than market expectations. Whether inflation can fall stably and quickly toward the long-term target range of 2% is the most important determinant of when the Federal Reserve will make its first interest rate cut. The higher-than-expected performance of February data may make the Federal Reserve more hesitant and cautious. From the perspective of overall CPI, the rise in crude oil prices since the beginning of the year is being transmitted to energy CPI in a more direct way. The latter increased by as much as 2.3% month-on-month in February, hitting a new high in the past six months. The current geopolitical conflicts in Gaza and the Red Sea region are severe, complex and difficult to resolve. Saudi Arabia and other key OPEC oil-producing countries have extended their voluntary production reduction agreement. It is expected that international oil prices will remain high and have stuck at a narrow range of 3.1%-3.3% for five consecutive months. After reaching the range, the path for the U.S. overall CPI to fall back year-on-year is still not smooth. The core CPI, which also exceeded expectations, showed three major structural characteristics: 1) The transmission effect of a new round of high wages to inflation is taking shape; 2) The current round of Fed interest rate hikes did not significantly suppress housing prices and rents; 3) U.S. residents Willingness to consume is strong. Once the strong performance of the three major structural factors continues for several months, the Fed\\'s \"first cut\" will be forced to postpone. In February, the U.S. core CPI reached 3.8% year-on-year, only a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from January. In the past five months, the cumulative decline has only been 0.3 percentage points. The downward rate has slowed down significantly, and the month-on-month increase has been as high as 0.36%, the highest in the past 10 months. It is at a high level and shows three major structural strengthening characteristics. 1) The two major sub-categories, which are mainly determined by the transmission effect of wage growth a few months ago: core non-durable consumer goods and core services excluding rent, both rebounded sharply month-on-month, with month-on-month growth of 0.32% and 0.52% respectively in February. Significantly higher than the average level of the past 12 months, it shows that the high stickiness of U.S. wage growth in the past few months has begun to be transmitted to the U.S. core CPI with a lag. The U.S. \"wage inflation spiral\" is transmitting wages to inflation. Not only was there no relief on one side, it was even intensified. 2) The month-on-month increase in rents in February still exceeded 0.4%, which is significantly higher than the normal average increase in the years before the epidemic; considering that rents are often a lagging and average comprehensive reflection of housing prices in the previous five months, this round of rapid acceleration by the Federal Reserve The interest rate path has not actually had a substantial suppressive effect on U.S. housing prices and rents, and this will also hinder the decline of U.S. core CPI. 3) In February, the month-on-month decline in U.S. durable consumer goods was only -0.06%, which was 0.4 percentage points narrower than in January. It was the smallest monthly decline in the past nine months of continuous month-on-month declines. The relationship between this sub-item and the consumer demand of U.S. residents The high degree shows that the United States is still in the stage of a demand cycle driven by fiscal expansion and high household income growth. Strong consumer demand will also strengthen the \"wage inflation spiral\" in the United States. We have slightly revised up our U.S. core CPI forecast, predicting that after falling to 3.4% year-on-year in May, it will basically remain at this \"platform\" level until October. Only in November and December is it expected to drop slightly to around 3.3%. , remains well above the Fed\\'s long-term inflation target of 2%. Coupled with the limited potential labor supply space in the United States, the unemployment rate may fall again during the year. We maintain the relatively cautious market forecast that the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut is expected to occur in September. The economic growth prospects of non-US developed economies have generally worsened. Core inflation has fallen and is expected to continue to be faster than that of the United States. The probability that the European and British central banks will be forced to cut interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve in June has increased. The upward trend of the U.S. dollar index so far this year may be It is far from over, and the global liquidity tightening effect it will bring cannot be underestimated. my country\\'s monetary policy easing operations may continue to be constrained by the passive depreciation pressure of the RMB during the year. The fiscal policy maintains or exceeds the expansion scale of the annual budget of the two sessions, which is 5% this year. The importance of high-quality growth targets has further increased. Risk warning: The Federal Reserve\\'s later-than-expected interest rate cut caused the U.S. dollar index to rise, limiting the risk of my country\\'s monetary easing space.', 'authorid': UUID('ae91a726-1e5a-5a58-8cc8-85a64f6c36b2'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6401763260364532, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'SNSST49DU7L9F8MR64HILUTF1JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:46:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'SNSST49DU7L9F8MR64HILUTF1JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7b2bf90f-3d7c-52c2-b2a8-65a5dc7226de'), 'title': 'Macro Comment: February inflation: exceeded expectations, but insufficient', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-13', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el9lLYjeWZqepxle0TH+agQo=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el9lLYjeWZqepxle0TH+agQo=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626494752_1.pdf?1710316779000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626494752_1.pdf?1710316779000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: February inflation: exceeded expectations, but insufficient', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '美国通胀“1月特例论”不攻自破，2月数据很“不给面子”。美国2月通胀和核心通胀双双超预期，这似乎和各联储密切跟踪的通胀指标的回落有些“背道而驰”。评估美国通胀指标显示潜在的通胀在不断“迈”向2%，剔除异常波动后的通胀持续回落。但我们认为当前最核心的佐证通胀前景的指标亚特兰大联储粘性CPI回落缓慢，显现出通胀更具有持续性。这也是通胀所需要走的“最艰难、最后一段路”。最后一段路，谁在“拖后腿”？根据旧金山联储，很明显通胀回落的堵点在于“需求型通胀”和“周期型通胀”。具体来说，需求型通胀被定义为同月价格和数量的实际值高于预测值；周期型通胀则是把价格对整体经济状况更为敏感的类别归纳于此。更直白的说，当前的通胀几乎完全是由住房租金及住宿、医疗保健和交通等服务推动的。从细项上来看2月通胀数据，住房和汽油价格是导致指数上升的主要原因，两者占2月增幅的60%以上。食品和家庭食品价格整体与上月保持不变。核心商品方面，新车和二手车的价格走势脱节。那么具体来看：能源价格是推动本次整体CPI上涨的重要推手。2月能源通胀掉头加速，根据美国汽车协会数据，普通汽油价格较一个月前上涨约20美分，涨幅超过6%，成为能源价格反弹的主要原因。虽然能源在一揽子CPI中占比并不是最大的，但是油价不仅影响着商品价格，也会延伸到其他服务价格，这也将抬升通胀预期从而加剧通胀风险。住房租金仍是最大“贡献者”，但增速有所放缓。2月住房分项CPI环比上升0.5%，住房通胀的韧性仍是核心CPI的主要拉动。但相对于1月住房分项增速的跳涨，2月增速明显有所放缓。房租环比也从1月0.6%下降至0.4%，住房通胀有所降温。但当前住房类通胀的居高不下仍使得通胀目标的实现面临重重阻碍，近期美国房价指数同比增速有所回升，谨防后续对住房类CPI的持续传导。超级核心通胀使美联储政策转向更加“纠结”。2月美联储钟爱的指标—超级核心通胀（剔除了住房的核心CPI服务分项）环比上涨0.5%，虽然相较于1月环比上涨的0.85%有所放缓，但仍旧高于疫前水平。且同比上涨高达4.5%，创下近一年以来的最大上涨幅度。服务业的韧性依然是美联储抗通胀路上的最大“绊脚石”。从分项上来看，2月除医疗护理服务环比下降外，运输服务（环比1.4%）、休闲服务（环比0.5%）、教育和通讯服务环比增速（环比0.5%）均呈现加速趋势。不过环比薪资上涨动能放缓，缓解通胀粘性。2月非农报告显示薪资环比大幅降温至0.1%，这对于通胀来说无疑是“好消息”。不过鉴于劳动力供给紧俏情况尚未完全好转，美国企业涨薪的趋势在短期内快速逆转仍有待观察。2月薪资同比增速达4.3%，距离目标水平仍有距离。且从行业来看，采矿业、制造业、运输业、金融业及其他服务业的同比薪资增速仍高达5%的水平。再者，核心商品环比增速的转正也是后续通胀回升的一大“隐患”。虽然2月核心商品同比增速延续负增长，助力核心CPI继续下行。但从环比增速上来看，2月在二手车（环比0.5%）的带动下，核心商品环比增速一度结束了去年6月以来持续的负增长，给后续核心通胀的回升埋下隐患。尤其是近两个月Manheim二手车价格指数环比呈现回升趋势，二手车分项通胀。通胀不仅扰动着美联储，同样是拜登的一大“心结”。因为从通胀和失业角度来看，当总统任期内发生高通胀和高失业率时，一般连任失败。截至目前，虽然拜登四年任期内失业率控制的较好，但平均物价水平却仍旧与连任成功的2.9%有差距。因此若想要连任成功，通胀还需要再加把劲儿。而相比于美联储“无法保证通胀会持续降至联储目标2%”，拜登显得更有“信心”，他在费城竞选活动上公开“打赌”预测降息，这在历史上还是头一次。鉴于通胀当前对美联储加息的指引性更强，根据此前我们的测算，通胀如果不能连续保持“好”的环比下降标准，那么将在上半年小幅反弹。这也符合鲍威尔及其他票委此前的判断：通胀将以一种崎岖的方式回落。因此需要物价以“令人信服”的方式放缓，这一要求便是环比稳定在0.3%的增幅以下，或者更低。显然本月核心通胀环比上涨的0.4%，离着“好”的方向远了一步。至于降息何时开启？上周鲍威尔曾表示，如果通胀走势符合预期，降息的过程“将会��今年开始”。我们认为这一标准是CPI至少要持续下降3个月，美联储才会认可通胀的下降趋势。由于本月通胀的小幅反弹，美联储需要跟多份数据的支持才能对降息更有“信心”，6月降息越来越难。风险提示：全球通胀超预期上行，美国经济提前进入显著衰退，巴以冲突局势失控，美国银行危机再起金融风险暴露。', 'content': 'The \"January special case\" theory of U.S. inflation is self-defeating, and the February data is \"unworthy of face.\" Both U.S. inflation and core inflation in February exceeded expectations, which seems to be somewhat \"contrary\" to the fall in inflation indicators closely tracked by the Federal Reserve. Evaluating U.S. inflation indicators shows that underlying inflation continues to \"move\" towards 2%, and inflation after excluding abnormal fluctuations continues to fall. However, we believe that the Atlanta Fed\\'s sticky CPI, the current core indicator supporting the outlook for inflation, has fallen slowly, showing that inflation is more sustainable. This is also the “most difficult and final path” that inflation needs to take. Who is \"holding back\" on the last stretch of the road? According to the San Francisco Fed, it is obvious that the blocking point for the fall in inflation lies in \"demand inflation\" and \"cyclical inflation.\" Specifically, demand-based inflation is defined as the actual value of prices and quantities in the same month being higher than the forecast value; cyclical inflation is a category where prices are more sensitive to overall economic conditions. To put it more bluntly, current inflation is driven almost entirely by housing rents and services such as accommodation, health care and transport. Looking at the February inflation data in detail, housing and gasoline prices were the main reasons for the increase in the index, accounting for more than 60% of February\\'s increase. Food and household food prices overall remained unchanged from the previous month. In terms of core commodities, the price trends of new cars and used cars are out of sync. Let’s look more specifically: Energy prices are an important driver of this overall CPI increase. Energy inflation turned around and accelerated in February. According to data from the American Automobile Association, the price of regular gasoline rose by about 20 cents, or more than 6%, from a month ago, which became the main reason for the rebound in energy prices. Although energy does not account for the largest proportion of the CPI package, oil prices not only affect commodity prices, but also extend to other service prices, which will also raise inflation expectations and intensify inflation risks. Housing rents are still the largest \"contributor\", but the growth rate has slowed down. The housing sub-CPI increased by 0.5% month-on-month in February, and the resilience of housing inflation is still the main driver of core CPI. However, compared with the jump in housing sub-item growth in January, the growth rate in February slowed down significantly. Month-on-month rents also dropped from 0.6% to 0.4% in January, and housing inflation has cooled. However, the current high level of housing inflation still poses many obstacles to the realization of the inflation target. The U.S. housing price index has recently picked up year-on-year growth, and we should be wary of continued transmission of housing CPI. Super core inflation makes the Fed\\'s policy shift more \"tangled.\" The Fed\\'s favorite indicator, super core inflation (the core CPI service component excluding housing), rose 0.5% month-on-month in February. Although it slowed down from the 0.85% month-on-month increase in January, it was still higher than pre-epidemic levels. And the year-on-year increase was as high as 4.5%, the largest increase in the past year. The resilience of the service industry remains the biggest \"stumbling block\" to the Fed\\'s fight against inflation. From a sub-item perspective, in addition to the month-on-month decrease in medical and nursing services in February, the month-on-month growth rates of transportation services (month-on-month 1.4%), leisure services (month-on-month 0.5%), education and communication services (month-on-month 0.5%) all showed an accelerating trend. However, the momentum of month-on-month wage growth has slowed down, easing the stickiness of inflation. The February non-farm payrolls report showed that wages dropped sharply to 0.1% month-on-month, which is undoubtedly \"good news\" for inflation. However, given that the tight labor supply situation has not yet completely improved, it remains to be seen whether the trend of wage increases in U.S. companies will reverse quickly in the short term. Salary growth in February reached 4.3% year-on-year, still far from the target level. From an industry perspective, year-on-year wage growth in the mining, manufacturing, transportation, financial and other service industries is still as high as 5%. Furthermore, the positive month-on-month growth rate of core commodities is also a major \"hidden risk\" for the subsequent rise in inflation. Although the year-on-year growth rate of core commodities in February continued to be negative, it helped the core CPI continue to decline. However, from the perspective of month-on-month growth, in February, driven by second-hand cars (0.5% month-on-month), the month-on-month growth rate of core commodities once ended the negative growth that had continued since June last year, laying hidden dangers for the subsequent rebound in core inflation. Especially in the past two months, the Manheim second-hand car price index has shown an upward trend month-on-month, and second-hand car inflation has been sub-indexed. Inflation not only disturbs the Federal Reserve, but is also a major concern for Biden. Because from the perspective of inflation and unemployment, when high inflation and high unemployment occur during a president\\'s term, he generally fails to be re-elected. So far, although Biden has controlled the unemployment rate well during his four-year term, the average price level is still far from the 2.9% that he achieved during his re-election. Therefore, if we want to be re-elected successfully, inflation needs to increase. Compared with the fact that the Fed \"cannot guarantee that inflation will continue to fall to the Fed\\'s target of 2%,\" Biden appears more \"confident.\" He publicly \"betted\" on predicting an interest rate cut at a campaign event in Philadelphia. This is the first time in history. Given that inflation is currently a stronger guideline for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, according to our previous calculations, if inflation cannot continue to maintain a \"good\" month-on-month decline standard, it will rebound slightly in the first half of the year. This is also consistent with the previous judgment of Powell and other voting committee members: inflation will fall back in a bumpy way. Therefore, prices need to slow down in a \"convincing\" way. This requirement is to stabilize at a month-on-month growth rate of less than 0.3%, or even lower. Obviously, core inflation rose by 0.4% month-on-month this month, which is a step away from the \"good\" direction. As for when the interest rate cut will start? Powell said last week that if inflation moves as expected, the process of cutting interest rates \"will begin this year.\" We believe that the standard is that CPI must continue to decline for at least 3 months before the Fed will recognize the downward trend in inflation. Due to the slight rebound in inflation this month, the Federal Reserve needs the support of multiple data to be more \"confident\" in cutting interest rates. It is becoming increasingly difficult to cut interest rates in June. Risk warning: Global inflation is rising faster than expected, the U.S. economy has entered a significant recession ahead of schedule, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is out of control, and the U.S. banking crisis has revived financial risk exposure.', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8809853345155716, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'S4NEGI52CJMCOEPEUAGKOBR7J7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:46:11 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'S4NEGI52CJMCOEPEUAGKOBR7J7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5b420262-a6aa-5c47-90c5-059767d2da67'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Comments: Looking at the level of fiscal efforts in 2024 from the budget report', 'author': 'He Ning', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6ely0FGuBxWIKwJ9/ZPLcECrk=', 'researcher': '何宁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6ely0FGuBxWIKwJ9/ZPLcECrk=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626490379_1.pdf?1710277535000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626490379_1.pdf?1710277535000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Comments: Looking at the level of fiscal efforts in 2024 from the budget report', 'originalAuthor': '何宁', 'originalContent': '事件：3月5日，财政部发布《关于2023年中央和地方预算执行情况与2024年中央和地方预算草案的报告》，以下简称“《报告》”。2024年一般公共预算收支增长适度，基建支出小幅加速1、从第一本账预算来看，2024年财政发力较为适度，收支增速平稳。2024年全国一般公共预算收入22.4万亿，同比增长3.1%（2023年增速为3.4%）。支出方面，全国公共预算支出总量为28.5万亿，同比增长3.8%（2023年增速��3.0%）。收支缺口约为6万亿，其中安排赤字弥补4.06万亿，剩余2万亿主要是调入资金和结转结余。2、实际收入总量可能存在缺口。进一步拆分，中央预算稳定调节基金调入+中央另外两本账调入和中央结转结余资金共约8200亿元；地方财政调入及使用结转结余12708亿，主要是地方政府往年支出的结余加上其他三本账用于平衡年度预算的调入收入。但因为近两年土地收入的下滑，地方财政收入可调入资金或有限，因此若年内无增量资金，财政收支或存在一定缺口。2023年，该科目预算数为1.18万亿，而实际值为8991亿元，少增约2800亿。但由于2023年内增发1万亿国债，这部分缺口未造成支出力度缩减。3、预算内投资的发力方向未出现明显转变，基建类支出小幅加力。2024年安排中央预算内投资7000亿，增加了200亿元，《报告》显示，政府投资将重点支持科技创新、新型基础设施、节能减排降碳，加强民生等薄弱领域补短板等。此外，预计这部分中央预算内投资将主要用于大规模设备更新创新、消费需求结构升级等方向。2024年全国预算支出中投向基建、民生领域的规模分别为5.9万亿、8.4万亿；相对于2023年实际值分别增长了4.2%和3.9%。预计2023年基建类财政保障力度将有所加强，但基建和民生支出的相对占比并未出现大幅变化。结合两本账衡量广义财政的发力水平1、政府性基金预算对地方政府土地收入假设偏乐观，或存在较大缺口。全国政府性基金预算收入7.08万亿，比2023年初预算数同比减少9.4%。与2023年实际值相比基本持平，同比增长约为0.1%，其中地方政府性基金收入也基本与2023年实际值持平，因此预算中隐含2024年土地收入0增长的假设。政府性基金预算支出约为12万亿，同比增长2%。其中中央政府性基金预算支出14866亿元，1万亿超长期特别国债支出便包含在内，值得注意的是，其中有6153亿元作为转移支付给地方，或指向仍有4千亿左右的特别国债由中央支出。2、综合一般公共预算和政府性基金两本账，财政力度强于2023年。（1）两本账合计预算支出增幅大于收入。两本账预算收入共约29.5万亿；两本账合计预算支出同比增加3.2%。但由于第二本账财政预算中对2024年土地收入的假设偏乐观，实际财政力度或需取决于地方政府性基金收入，第二本账收支可能存在一定缺口。（2）广义财政资金增量或超过1万亿。若以广义口径，即预算内+预算外资金衡量财政资金支持投资的力度，2024年总规模约为赤字4.06万亿+1万亿特别国债+3.9万亿专项债，共计约9万亿；此外，2023年增发国债还有大部分将在2024年使用，因此总体相对2023年有约1.3万亿增量资金（2023年增发国债按每年各使用5000亿测算）。财政支出温和扩张，但或存在一定压力总结来看，2024年财政支出力度温和扩张，第二本账是国内经济的主要支撑。但考虑地产调整、地方政府财源缩窄等问题，财政收支平衡或存压力。2022-2023年地方土地收入增速平均为-18%，我们认为2024年地产销售将边际回升，但地产中长期调整的趋势或难以扭转。若假设2024年地方政府性收入增速为-5%—-10%，则地方政府性基金收入或比预算减少约3400-6700亿元。此外，正如上文提到的，2023年地方结转结余收入缺口约2800亿元，若2024年这部分收入不及预算的情况延续，且年内无增量财政收入来源，则财政或有一定压力。因此，我们认为若后续实际经济表现与目标有差距，财政也可能在年中继续加力。风险提示：经济超预期下行；政策执行不及预期。', 'content': 'Event: On March 5, the Ministry of Finance released the \"Report on the Implementation of the Central and Local Budgets in 2023 and the Draft Central and Local Budgets in 2024\", hereinafter referred to as the \"Report\". The general public budget revenue and expenditure will grow moderately in 2024, and infrastructure expenditure will accelerate slightly. 1. Judging from the first budget, the fiscal effort in 2024 will be relatively moderate, and the revenue and expenditure growth will be stable. The national general public budget revenue in 2024 will be 22.4 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% (the growth rate in 2023 will be 3.4%). In terms of expenditure, the total national public budget expenditure is 28.5 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% (the growth rate in 2023 will be 3.0%). The revenue and expenditure gap is about 6 trillion yuan, of which 4.06 trillion yuan is arranged to make up for the deficit, and the remaining 2 trillion yuan is mainly due to transferred funds and carryover balances. 2. There may be a gap in the actual total income. Further split, the central budget stabilization fund was transferred in + the other two central accounts transferred in and the central carryover and balance funds totaled about 820 billion yuan; local finance transferred and used the carryover and balance of 1.2708 billion yuan, mainly the expenditures of local governments in previous years. The balance plus the transfer revenue from the other three accounts is used to balance the annual budget. However, due to the decline in land revenue in the past two years, the funds that can be transferred from local fiscal revenue may be limited. Therefore, if there is no additional funds within the year, there may be a certain gap in fiscal revenue and expenditure. In 2023, the budget for this subject is 1.18 trillion yuan, while the actual value is 899.1 billion yuan, a decrease of about 280 billion yuan. However, due to the issuance of an additional 1 trillion treasury bonds in 2023, this gap has not resulted in a reduction in spending. 3. There has been no obvious change in the direction of budgetary investment, and infrastructure expenditure has increased slightly. In 2024, an investment of 700 billion is arranged within the central budget, an increase of 20 billion yuan. The \"Report\" shows that government investment will focus on supporting technological innovation, new infrastructure, energy conservation and emission reduction, and strengthening people\\'s livelihood and other weak areas to make up for shortcomings. In addition, it is expected that this part of the central budget investment will be mainly used for large-scale equipment updating and innovation, upgrading of consumer demand structure, etc. In 2024, the scale of national budget expenditures invested in infrastructure and people\\'s livelihood fields will be 5.9 trillion and 8.4 trillion respectively; compared with the actual values \\u200b\\u200bin 2023, they will increase by 4.2% and 3.9% respectively. It is expected that financial support for infrastructure construction will be strengthened in 2023, but the relative proportions of infrastructure and people\\'s livelihood expenditures have not changed significantly. Combining the two accounts to measure the level of efforts of general finance 1. The assumption of the government fund budget on local government land revenue is optimistic, or there may be a large gap. The national government fund budget revenue is 7.08 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4% from the budget figure at the beginning of 2023. Compared with the actual value in 2023, it is basically the same, with a year-on-year growth of about 0.1%. The income of local government funds is also basically the same as the actual value in 2023. Therefore, the budget implies an assumption of zero growth in land revenue in 2024. The budget expenditure of government funds is approximately 12 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Among them, the central government fund budget expenditure is 1,486.6 billion yuan, including the 1 trillion ultra-long-term special government bond expenditure. It is worth noting that 615.3 billion yuan of this amount is used as transfer payments to local governments, or it may refer to the special funds that still have about 400 billion yuan. National debt is paid by the central government. 2. Combining the general public budget and government funds, the fiscal strength will be stronger than in 2023. (1) The total budget expenditure of the two accounts increased more than the revenue. The total budget revenue of the two accounts is approximately 29.5 trillion; the total budget expenditure of the two accounts increased by 3.2% year-on-year. However, since the assumption of land revenue in 2024 in the second fiscal budget is optimistic, the actual fiscal strength may depend on the revenue of local government funds, and there may be a certain gap in the revenue and expenditure of the second fiscal account. (2) The increase in general fiscal funds may exceed 1 trillion. If we use a broad approach, that is, budgetary + extrabudgetary funds to measure the intensity of fiscal funds supporting investment, the total scale in 2024 will be approximately 4.06 trillion yuan in deficit + 1 trillion yuan in special government bonds + 3.9 trillion yuan in special bonds, totaling approximately 9 trillion yuan; in addition , most of the additional treasury bonds issued in 2023 will be used in 2024, so the overall increase in funds compared to 2023 is about 1.3 trillion (the additional treasury bonds issued in 2023 are calculated as using 500 billion each year). Fiscal expenditures are expanding moderately, but there may be some pressure. To sum up, fiscal expenditures will expand moderately in 2024, and the second account is the main support for the domestic economy. However, considering issues such as real estate adjustments and shrinking financial resources of local governments, there may be pressure on fiscal balance. The average growth rate of local land revenue from 2022 to 2023 is -18%. We believe that real estate sales will rebound marginally in 2024, but the trend of mid- to long-term real estate adjustments may be difficult to reverse. If it is assumed that the growth rate of local government revenue in 2024 is -5% to -10%, then local government fund revenue may be approximately 340-670 billion yuan less than the budget. In addition, as mentioned above, the local carryover and balance revenue gap in 2023 is about 280 billion yuan. If this part of the revenue in 2024 continues to be less than the budget, and there is no source of incremental fiscal revenue during the year, the finance may be under certain pressure. Therefore, we believe that if there is a gap between the subsequent actual economic performance and the target, fiscal policy may continue to increase in the middle of the year. Risk warning: The economy declines more than expected; policy implementation falls short of expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('52a5389c-6434-575d-ad8f-dccb9d09cd11'), 'sentimentScore': 0.3539019413292408, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'C5LU115LACOCTRA8JG29TGICNFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:46:14 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'C5LU115LACOCTRA8JG29TGICNFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('07b3aaed-09ee-5511-afaa-3b27c1e65679'), 'title': 'Short-term and medium- and long-term inflation framework: exploring the multiple interpretation paths of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts', 'author': 'Zhang Jun , Yu Jintong', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el8cJ4H/a40BQdWGWV4q4UCA=', 'researcher': '章俊,于金潼', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000440456'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el8cJ4H/a40BQdWGWV4q4UCA=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626488914_1.pdf?1710274722000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626488914_1.pdf?1710274722000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Short-term and medium- and long-term inflation framework: exploring the multiple interpretation paths of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,于金潼', 'originalContent': '核心观点：鲍威尔暗示降息在路上，但目前的市场预期存在哪些风险？年初市场的降息预测较为激进，一度为3月进行首次降息，全年最多可能降息7次。不过，随着劳动市场、通胀和经济数据展现超预期的韧性，当前的主流预测已经变为6月首次降息，全年累计4次共100BP，也有部分意见认为存在2024年不降息的风险。令市场松了一口气的是，鲍威尔在3月6日的国会听证中表示“适时在今年某个时候开始缓和限制性的货币政策”。虽然如此，近期强于预期的数据令投资者不得不考虑一些问题：（1）什么因素可能导致美联储在2024年降息幅度不及预期？（2）美联储2024年不降息的概率有多大？通胀隐忧之下，降息时点和幅度可能发生什么变化？可能导致降息不及预期的短期因素：居住成本相关的统计问题可能是导致通胀回落不及预期的最直接的风险，核心服务价格在劳动供需缺口下的粘性短期保持，但终将回落，意外的冲突对能源价格的扰动也应警惕，食品和核心商品无需过度忧虑。通胀在前三季度曲折下行的趋势仍在，但四季度可能回升并向3%靠拢，这也易导致美联储的降息幅度更加克制。CPI统计修订了业主等价租金的分项权重，增加了涨价幅度更明显的“独户住宅”占比，这也直接导致2024年1月3.1%的CPI同比增速显著超过2.9%的市场预期。在目前的地产供需格局下，预计业主等价租金（OER）的环比增速可能在2024年小幅高于主要居所租金，为通胀更顺畅的下行制造小幅阻力。值得关注的中长期因素中，债务影响可能最为明显：如有证据表明美国老龄人口退休加剧并带动储蓄率下行、政治因素导致（计划）立法通过大量新增关税、地缘政治冲突长期持续并提升大宗商品成本、美国财政支出再度超预期扩张，则2024年的降息幅度可能也会被这些中长期因素所限制。老龄化方面，（1）在不考虑技术进步的情况下，老龄抚养比的上升对总产出的负面贡献不利于低通胀的保持；（2）部分研究认为老龄化导致储蓄率降低，而储蓄可能被转换为需求和流动性，增加通胀。（3）持续的超额退休使美国劳动缺口闭合十分缓慢，偏高劳动需求下薪资和通胀形成循环。逆全球化方面，特朗普潜在的“回归”与其关税政策是重要担忧。中长期框架中目前最明显的压力来自于拜登政府新公���的财政计划，白宫预计2024和2025年赤字率仍高达6.6%和6.1%。而贫富差距、生产力与经济扩张和绿色低碳等问题影响尚不突出。美联储2024年不降息的概率有多大？降息的幅度和时点可能发生什么变化？不降息的概率目前很低，在鲍威尔等重要官员表态会在某一时点降低政策利率的基础上，美联储的“实际利率”框架和泰勒规则也并不支持联邦基金利率在通胀继续放缓的基础上保持高位。但如果通胀出人意料的大幅反弹引发不降息，10年期美债收益率在赤字率不低的基础上可能再度挑战5%，美元指数回升超过105，美股也面临更长期高利率下的业绩压力。考虑到通胀数据中居住成本对通胀降低形成的阻碍、劳动市场和核心服务价格粘性略强于预期、白宫计划的财政支出力度和赤字率仍然较强，我们维持美联储在二季度末进行首次降息的判断，但将全年降息次数修正为3次75BP。在年中进行首次降息后，美联储可能在有充分数据观察时间的9月和12月进行第二和第三次降息；而如果四季度CPI快速回升至3%以上，核心CPI仍未降至3%附近，则美联储可能选择在12月不降息，全年仅降息2次。风险提示1.美国市场流动性意外紧张的风险2.美国财政力度意外放缓的风险3.大选年政治不确定性的相关风险', 'content': 'Core Viewpoint: Powell hinted that a rate cut is on the way, but what are the risks to current market expectations? At the beginning of the year, the market\\'s interest rate cut predictions were relatively radical. At one point, the first rate cut was made in March, and up to seven rate cuts were possible throughout the year. However, as the labor market, inflation and economic data show stronger-than-expected resilience, the current mainstream forecast has become the first interest rate cut in June, with a total of 4 times for the year totaling 100BP. Some opinions believe that there is a risk of no interest rate cut in 2024. To the market\\'s relief, Powell stated during a congressional hearing on March 6 that it would be \"appropriate to begin easing restrictive monetary policy at some point this year.\" Nonetheless, the recent stronger-than-expected data has forced investors to consider some questions: (1) What factors may cause the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates less than expected in 2024? (2) What is the probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in 2024? Amid concerns about inflation, what might happen to the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts? Short-term factors that may lead to a lower-than-expected interest rate cut: Statistical issues related to housing costs may be the most direct risk that causes inflation to fall lower than expected. Core service prices remain sticky in the short term under the gap between labor supply and demand, but will eventually fall. Unexpected conflicts have a negative impact on the economy. We should also be alert to disturbances in energy prices, and there is no need to worry too much about food and core commodities. The downward trend of inflation in the first three quarters is still there, but it may rebound and move closer to 3% in the fourth quarter, which may also lead to the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate cuts being more restrained. CPI statistics have revised the sub-item weights of owner-equivalent rents and increased the proportion of \"single-family homes\" with more obvious price increases. This has also directly caused the CPI year-on-year growth rate of 3.1% in January 2024 to significantly exceed the 2.9% market. expected. Under the current real estate supply and demand pattern, it is expected that the month-on-month growth rate of owner-equivalent rent (OER) may be slightly higher than that of primary residence rent in 2024, creating slight resistance to a smoother downward trend in inflation. Among the mid- to long-term factors worthy of attention, the impact of debt may be the most obvious: if there is evidence that the aging population in the United States is retiring and driving down the savings rate, political factors lead to (planned) legislation passing a large number of new tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts continue for a long time and increase the volume of commodities. Commodity costs and U.S. fiscal spending have once again expanded beyond expectations, and the extent of interest rate cuts in 2024 may also be limited by these medium- and long-term factors. In terms of aging, (1) without taking into account technological progress, the negative contribution of the increase in the old-age dependency ratio to total output is not conducive to maintaining low inflation; (2) some studies believe that aging leads to a reduction in the savings rate, and savings May be converted into demand and liquidity, increasing inflation. (3) Continued excess retirements have made the U.S. labor gap close very slowly, creating a cycle of wages and inflation under relatively high labor demand. In terms of anti-globalization, Trump\\'s potential \"return\" and his tariff policy are important concerns. The most obvious pressure in the mid- to long-term framework currently comes from the newly announced fiscal plan of the Biden administration. The White House predicts that the deficit rate will still be as high as 6.6% and 6.1% in 2024 and 2025. However, the impact of issues such as the gap between rich and poor, productivity and economic expansion, and green and low carbon is not yet prominent. What are the chances that the Fed will not cut interest rates in 2024? What might happen to the extent and timing of interest rate cuts? The probability of not cutting interest rates is currently very low. On the basis that important officials such as Powell have stated that they will lower the policy interest rate at some point, the Fed\\'s \"real interest rate\" framework and the Taylor rule do not support the federal funds rate on the basis that inflation continues to slow. Keep it high. However, if an unexpected sharp rebound in inflation leads to no interest rate cut, the 10-year U.S. bond yield may challenge 5% again on the basis of a high deficit rate. The U.S. dollar index will rebound above 105, and U.S. stocks will also face performance pressure under longer-term high interest rates. Considering that the cost of living in the inflation data hinders the reduction of inflation, the price stickiness of the labor market and core services is slightly stronger than expected, and the fiscal spending intensity and deficit ratio planned by the White House are still strong, we maintain the Fed\\'s first interest rate cut at the end of the second quarter. Judgment, but revised the number of interest rate cuts throughout the year to 3 times 75BP. After cutting interest rates for the first time in the middle of the year, the Federal Reserve may make second and third interest rate cuts in September and December when there is sufficient data observation time; and if the CPI quickly rebounds to above 3% in the fourth quarter, the core CPI has not yet dropped to 3%. %, the Fed may choose not to cut interest rates in December and only cut interest rates twice throughout the year. Risk warning 1. Risk of unexpected tight liquidity in the US market 2. Risk of unexpected slowdown in US fiscal strength 3. Risks related to political uncertainty in the election year', 'authorid': UUID('aade9e7c-af7e-5d53-a8f5-2d3af8826809'), 'sentimentScore': 0.1454193890094757, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '2BBCPC9AF8C1U8R5G82GK0MNERVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:46:17 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '2BBCPC9AF8C1U8R5G82GK0MNERVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('49b6b535-1e98-53c5-b806-37f6e29ee3f5'), 'title': 'Monetary policy and liquidity observation: Funding remained loose at the beginning of the month', 'author': 'Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el7bMxXWJvi52xOmULblF4Vw=', 'researcher': '董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el7bMxXWJvi52xOmULblF4Vw=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626458054_1.pdf?1710270665000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626458054_1.pdf?1710270665000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Monetary policy and liquidity observation: Funding remained loose at the beginning of the month', 'originalAuthor': '董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点月初资金面保持宽松海外方面，上周（3月4日-3月8日）全球主要央行货币政策无重大变化。联邦资金利率期货隐含的3月FOMC降息25bp的可能性为3%，不降息的可能性为97%。国内流动性方面，月初资金面扰动因素较少，央行大幅回收超万亿元跨月基础货币，但流动性总体仍较为宽松，资金利率稳中有降，银行-非银分层回归历史平均水平。国信狭义流动性高频扩散指数较前一周（2月26日-3月1日）边际下降0.12至100.93。其中价格指标贡献-21%，数量指标贡献121%。价格指数上升（宽松）主要上周全周标准化后的R/DR加权利率偏离度（7天/14天利率减去同期限政策利率）和同业存单加权利率总体环比下行支撑，R001小幅上行拖累。数量上，央行上周逆回购大幅缩量，对数量指标形成拖累。本周需关注以下因素的扰动：15日为办税截止日，同业存单到期超过9000亿元。央行公开市场操作：上周（3月4日-3月10日），央行净投放流动性资金-11140亿元。其中：7天逆回购净投放-11140��元（到期11640亿元，投放500亿元），14天逆回购净投放0亿元（到期0亿元，投放0亿元）。本周（3月11日-3月17日），央行逆回购将到期500亿元，其中7天逆回购到期500亿元，14天逆回购到期0亿元。截至本周一（3月11日）央行7天逆回购净投放0亿元，14天逆回购净投放0亿元，OMO存量为500亿元。银行间交易量：上周银行间市场质押回购平均日均成交7.26万亿，较前一周（2月26日-3月3日）增加0.81万亿。隔夜回购占比为88.8%，较前一周（85.7%）降低3.1pct。债券发行：上周政府债净融资1155.5亿元，，本周计划发行3805.3亿元，净融资额预计为-125.2亿元；上周同业存单净融资-684.4亿元，本周计划发行2261.4亿元，净融资额预计为-7626.1亿元；上周政策银行债净融资1250.0亿元，本周计划发行390.0亿元，净融资额预计为-340.0亿元；上周商业银行次级债券净融资0.0亿元，本周计划发行500.0亿元，净融资额预计为500.0亿元；上周企业债券净融资4379.8亿元（其中城投债融资贡献约5.9%），本周计划发行1320.9亿元，净融资额预计为-2226.1亿元。上周五（3月8日）人民币CFETS一篮子汇率指数较前一周（3月1日）下行0.72至98.72，同期美元指数下行1.14，位于102.74。3月8日，美元兑人民币在岸汇率较3月1日的7.19基本维持不变；离岸汇率基本维持不变位于7.20。风险提示：需求改善不及预期，海外经济进入衰退。', 'content': \"Core point of view: Funding remained loose at the beginning of the month. In terms of overseas markets, there were no major changes in the monetary policies of major central banks around the world last week (March 4-March 8). Federal funds rate futures imply a 3% chance of a 25bp rate cut by the March FOMC, and a 97% chance of no rate cut. In terms of domestic liquidity, there were few disturbing factors on the funding side at the beginning of the month. The central bank significantly recycled more than one trillion yuan of base money across the month. However, overall liquidity is still relatively loose. Funding interest rates are stable but falling, and the bank-non-bank stratification has returned to the historical average. . Guosen's narrow liquidity high-frequency diffusion index fell marginally by 0.12 to 100.93 from the previous week (February 26-March 1). Among them, the price indicator contributed -21% and the quantity indicator contributed 121%. The increase (easing) in the price index was mainly supported by the overall week-on-month downward trend in the standardized R/DR weighted interest rate deviation (7-day/14-day interest rate minus the policy interest rate for the same period) and the overall month-on-month decline in the weighted interest rate on interbank certificates of deposit, dragged down by the slight upward movement of R001. In terms of quantity, the central bank significantly reduced its reverse repurchase volume last week, which exerted a drag on quantitative indicators. This week we need to pay attention to the disturbance of the following factors: the 15th is the tax deadline, and interbank certificates of deposit expire over 900 billion yuan. Open market operations of the central bank: Last week (March 4-March 10), the central bank released net liquidity funds of -1.114 billion yuan. Among them: 7-day reverse repurchase net investment -1114 billion yuan (expiration of 1164 billion yuan, investment of 50 billion yuan), 14-day reverse repurchase net investment of 0 billion yuan (expiration of 0 billion yuan, investment of 0 billion yuan). This week (March 11-March 17), the central bank's reverse repurchase will expire 50 billion yuan, of which 7-day reverse repurchase will expire 50 billion yuan, and 14-day reverse repurchase will expire 0 billion yuan. As of this Monday (March 11), the central bank has invested a net RMB 0 billion in 7-day reverse repurchases and RMB 0.0 billion in 14-day reverse repurchases. The OMO stock is 50 billion yuan. Inter-bank transaction volume: The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos in the inter-bank market last week was 7.26 trillion, an increase of 0.81 trillion from the previous week (February 26-March 3). Overnight repurchases accounted for 88.8%, a decrease of 3.1pct from the previous week (85.7%). Bond issuance: Net financing of government bonds last week was 115.55 billion yuan, and 380.53 billion yuan is planned to be issued this week, with net financing expected to be -12.52 billion yuan; net financing of interbank certificates of deposit was -68.44 billion yuan last week, and 226.14 billion yuan is planned to be issued this week. , the net financing amount is expected to be -762.61 billion yuan; last week, the net financing of policy bank bonds was 125.0 billion yuan, and 39.0 billion yuan is planned to be issued this week, and the net financing amount is expected to be -34.00 billion yuan; last week, the net financing of commercial bank subordinated bonds was 0.0 billion, this week plans to issue 50.0 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is expected to be 50.0 billion yuan; last week, corporate bond net financing was 437.98 billion yuan (of which urban investment bond financing contributed about 5.9%), and this week it plans to issue 132.09 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 50.0 billion yuan. The amount of financing is expected to be -222.61 billion yuan. Last Friday (March 8), the RMB CFETS basket exchange rate index fell 0.72 to 98.72 from the previous week (March 1). During the same period, the U.S. dollar index fell 1.14 to 102.74. On March 8, the onshore exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the RMB was higher than that of the previous week (March 1). The 7.19 on March 1 remained basically unchanged; the offshore exchange rate remained basically unchanged at 7.20. Risk warning: Demand does not improve as expected, and overseas economies enter recession.\", 'authorid': UUID('7f0ba462-39fa-5efc-b2aa-f8b8339a39b2'), 'sentimentScore': -0.707776628434658, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'V97QS7FPLU21MKITCVKLN2HFBRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:46:20 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'V97QS7FPLU21MKITCVKLN2HFBRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('44859a08-43f0-5fe2-acc8-d995809d3fad'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic special research: risk subsidy interest rate research', 'author': 'Shao Xingyu, Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el2gG8wDTAdrX1tUDk+BIvH0=', 'researcher': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257974', '11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el2gG8wDTAdrX1tUDk+BIvH0=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626458052_1.pdf?1710270250000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626458052_1.pdf?1710270250000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic special research: risk subsidy interest rate research', 'originalAuthor': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点采用两阶段折现模型可以计算得到风险补贴利率。（1）考虑到中国资本市场所面临的增速换挡的宏观现实，我们采用两阶段折现模型计算风险补贴利率，其中初试增速设定为沪深300当期预期利润增速，永续增速设定为中国经济名义增速的长期中枢水平为6%（5%的实际增速+1%的GDP平减指数），无风险利率取10年期国债收益率。（2）风险补贴利率计算结果呈现均值回归规律。在2017年至今样本观测期间，风险补贴利率均值水平在14.7%，标准差为1.89%。风险补贴利率整体在两倍标准差即10.29%-17.86%之间波动，仅在2021年末出现小幅突破下限情况，整体呈现显著均值回归规律。风险补贴利率与主权CDS息差、沪深300指数高度相关。分别将计算结果与主权CDS息差和沪深300两类资产定价进行了比较。（1）从历史对比情况来看，2017年至今，我们计算所得的风险补贴利率与CDS息差之间一直存在较强相关性，具体反映为：风险补贴利率与CDS息差之间波动幅度并不完全一致，但波动方向大部分吻合，且在时间上同步。但两大指标在2022年4月-6月和2023年2月-4月之间也曾经发生过方向上的背离，我们认为这两个时间段的背离与特定事件发生后国内外存在一定信息差有关。（2）风险补贴利率与沪深300走势呈现显著负相关，即风险补贴利率下行，则对应沪深300上行。但是，这一组关系在历史上也曾经发生过背离，2023年8月底到2023年11月底，出现沪深300指数持续下行但风险补贴利率也下行的情况，这可能意味着这一阶段沪深300的调整并不来自于风险事件冲击，而更多来自于市场对潜在增速的下修。当前风险补贴利率大致位于历史均值附近。借助于两阶段估值模型，我们将市盈率的影响因子进一步拆分为潜在增速、无风险收益率和风险补贴利率三个部分。从计算结果来看，截止至2024年3月8日，风险补贴利率计算结果为14.2%，大致处于历史均值附近。风险提示：政策调整滞后，经济增速下滑。', 'content': \"The core point is that the risk subsidy rate can be calculated using a two-stage discount model. (1) Taking into account the macro reality of the growth rate shift faced by China’s capital market, we use a two-stage discount model to calculate the risk subsidy interest rate, in which the initial trial growth rate is set to the expected profit growth rate of the CSI 300 for the current period, and the sustainable growth rate is The speed is set to the long-term central level of China's nominal economic growth rate of 6% (5% real growth rate + 1% GDP deflator), and the risk-free interest rate is the 10-year government bond yield. (2) The calculation results of risk subsidy interest rate show the law of mean regression. During the sample observation period from 2017 to the present, the average level of risk subsidy interest rate is 14.7%, and the standard deviation is 1.89%. The overall risk subsidy rate fluctuates between two standard deviations, that is, 10.29%-17.86%. It only slightly broke through the lower limit at the end of 2021, showing a significant mean reversion pattern overall. The risk subsidy rate is highly correlated with sovereign CDS spreads and the CSI 300 Index. The calculation results are compared with the sovereign CDS spread and the CSI 300 asset pricing respectively. (1) Judging from the historical comparison, from 2017 to the present, there has always been a strong correlation between the risk subsidy interest rate and the CDS interest rate calculated by us. The specific reflection is as follows: the fluctuation range between the risk subsidy interest rate and the CDS interest spread is not the same. Not completely consistent, but the wave directions are mostly consistent and synchronized in time. However, the two major indicators have also diverged in direction between April and June 2022 and February and April 2023. We believe that the divergence between these two time periods is related to the existence of certain information at home and abroad after the occurrence of specific events. Difference related. (2) There is a significant negative correlation between the risk subsidy rate and the trend of the CSI 300. That is, a downward trend in the risk subsidy rate corresponds to an upward trend in the CSI 300. However, this set of relationships has also diverged in history. From the end of August 2023 to the end of November 2023, the CSI 300 Index continued to decline but the risk subsidy interest rate also declined. This may mean that the CSI 300 Index continued to decline during this period. The adjustment of 300 does not come from the impact of risk events, but more from the market's downward revision of potential growth. Current risk subsidy rates are roughly around historical averages. With the help of a two-stage valuation model, we further split the influencing factors of the price-to-earnings ratio into three parts: potential growth rate, risk-free rate of return and risk subsidy rate. Judging from the calculation results, as of March 8, 2024, the risk subsidy interest rate calculation result is 14.2%, which is roughly around the historical average. Risk warning: Policy adjustments lag behind and economic growth slows down.\", 'authorid': UUID('326df97e-9b51-50f7-9a96-c9f92117a326'), 'sentimentScore': 0.021505722776055336, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'LAQE8MRGBTU6N2JEO7H7VQLJ0BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:46:23 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'LAQE8MRGBTU6N2JEO7H7VQLJ0BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1a9ceec4-da03-558d-beda-91ed19db6ebf'), 'title': 'Market expectations for China’s economic data in March 2024 are ahead of schedule: economic expectations are stable and inflation expectations are slightly higher.', 'author': 'Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli', 'orgName': '上海证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000155', 'orgSName': '上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elxd46C4wQqPnFu63fF5qxZk=', 'researcher': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172617', '11000235839'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elxd46C4wQqPnFu63fF5qxZk=', 'site': 'Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '上海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626458051_1.pdf?1710270821000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626458051_1.pdf?1710270821000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Market expectations for China’s economic data in March 2024 are ahead of schedule: economic expectations are stable and inflation expectations are slightly higher.', 'originalAuthor': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'originalContent': '主要观点2024年3月份经济数据公布将恢复常态，本次市场提前POLL（2月份数据未公布前进行的2024年3月份中国经济数据预测）表明，对中国经济运行格局的市场主流预期由前期的稳中偏软，变化为稳中向好：与预测当期数据（2023年12月份）相比，作为经济增长第一动力的投资增长预期略有上涨，表明经济整体运行稳中向好成为市场共识，消费由于基数效应有所下降，整体平稳态势不变；另外从��测数据的宽分布格局看，机构间分歧仍然较大，我们认为这体现了经济转型时期结构变化给微观主体造成不同影响的阶段特征。通胀预期保持平稳虽然1月份CPI和PPI延续了“双负”状态，且程度加深，但市场主流预期并没有形成通缩深化的预期：2024年3月份CPI同比增速（%）预测分布区间为（-0.6,0.8），预期的中值和均值分别为0.3和0.2，表明消费价格回升是市场主流预期；主流预期认为PPI同比增速仍保持平稳。我们一直认为，受基数效应影响，未来CPI同比数据或持续处于低位运行状态，PPI则延续降幅缓慢收窄态势。2月份真实物价数据公布后，市场整体对物价运行基准水平应有下移，但运行趋势（平稳中缓回升）预期应保持不变。我们认为，中国消费价格有着较为明显的季节性波动规律，从环比价格变动看，中国物价运行并未陷入通缩态势，受基数效应影响，1月CPI同比降幅有所扩大，但并不意味着通缩态势形成，价格运行比较平稳；工业品价格受大宗商品价格低迷影响，延续低迷态势。经济平稳中货币增长预期稳中偏降对工业、投资和消费的增速预期中值显示，市场整体认为经济运行整体将呈现稳中趋升态势；经济回暖下货币政策宽松格局或逐渐退出，从市场预期的中值和均值看，稳中趋降成为货币增长的市场主流预期。我们一直认为，经济平稳中的通胀下行走势，或带来货币增速的后撤；价格运行稳中偏低的态势，也为宽松货币政策创造了空间，预计1-2Q内调降回购利率5BP的降息举措或有发生、2-3Q内降准25BP也是大概率事件。我们认为，随着中国经济运行的国内外环境改变，推动融资成本下行的降准、降息等政策工具仍将延续。综合来看，我们认为，在政策激励和经济韧性影响下，中国经济运行平稳态势不变，随着政策效应逐渐呈现，2024年中国经济和资本市场运行或将延续双回暖格局。我们认为，未来“宏观平稳、微观改善”的宏观运行趋势，将为资本市场的走稳回暖奠定坚实基础。风险提示俄乌冲突扩大化，国际金融形势改变；中国通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。', 'content': 'The main point is that the release of economic data in March 2024 will return to normal. The market\\'s early POLL (forecast of China\\'s economic data in March 2024 conducted before the February data is released) shows that the mainstream market expectations for China\\'s economic operation pattern have changed from the previous ones. Stable but moderately soft, changing to stable but improving: Compared with the forecast data for the current period (December 2023), investment growth expectations, which are the first driving force for economic growth, have increased slightly, indicating that the overall economic operation is stable and improving, which has become the market consensus. , consumption has declined due to the base effect, and the overall stable trend remains unchanged; in addition, judging from the wide distribution pattern of the forecast data, the differences between institutions are still large. We believe this reflects the stage in which structural changes have different impacts on micro entities during the economic transition period. feature. Inflation expectations remain stable. Although CPI and PPI continued to be \"double negative\" in January and deepened, the mainstream market expectations did not form expectations of deepening deflation: the forecast distribution range of CPI year-on-year growth rate (%) in March 2024 is ( -0.6, 0.8), the expected median and mean values \\u200b\\u200bare 0.3 and 0.2 respectively, indicating that a rebound in consumer prices is the mainstream expectation of the market; the mainstream expectation is that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will remain stable. We have always believed that due to the base effect, future CPI year-on-year data may continue to be at a low level, while PPI will continue to decline and slowly narrow. After the release of real price data in February, the market as a whole should have downward expectations for the benchmark level of price operations, but expectations for the operating trend (stable and moderate recovery) should remain unchanged. We believe that China\\'s consumer prices have relatively obvious seasonal fluctuations. Judging from month-on-month price changes, China\\'s price movement has not fallen into a deflationary trend. Affected by the base effect, the year-on-year decline in CPI in January has expanded, but it does not mean deflation. A trend has been formed, and prices have been relatively stable; industrial product prices have been affected by the downturn in commodity prices and have continued to remain depressed. The economy is stable and currency growth is expected to be stable but slightly lower. The median growth expectations for industry, investment and consumption show that the market as a whole believes that the overall economic operation will show a stable and upward trend; as the economy picks up, the easing pattern of monetary policy may gradually exit, from Looking at the median and average market expectations, stable and declining trends have become the mainstream market expectations for currency growth. We have always believed that the downward trend of inflation in a stable economy may bring about a retreat in monetary growth; the stable and low price trend has also created space for loose monetary policy, and it is expected that the repurchase rate will be lowered in 1-2Q. A 5BP interest rate cut may occur, and a 25BP RRR cut within 2-3Q is also a high probability event. We believe that as the domestic and international environment for China\\'s economic operation changes, policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts that promote downward financing costs will continue. Taken together, we believe that under the influence of policy incentives and economic resilience, China\\'s economic operation will remain stable. As the policy effects gradually emerge, China\\'s economy and capital market operations may continue the double recovery pattern in 2024. We believe that the future macro operation trend of \"macro stability and micro improvement\" will lay a solid foundation for the stabilization and recovery of the capital market. Risks include the expansion of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and changes in the international financial situation; China\\'s inflation has risen beyond expectations, and China\\'s monetary policy has changed beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('23836b0d-75e0-5a50-a109-862fde53e3bf'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6964735463261604, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TJEF3H4MHUJKJH6OA1JOKE7A0BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:46:25 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TJEF3H4MHUJKJH6OA1JOKE7A0BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f26b4c6d-dc62-5b76-8827-9d441ee42651'), 'title': 'Macro Research: Summary and Review of 2024 Fiscal Series Outlook', 'author': 'Zhang Jun ,Nie Tianqi', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el0ye6+YpWgqNdRemU8K+x3o=', 'researcher': '章俊,聂天奇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000450636'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el0ye6+YpWgqNdRemU8K+x3o=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626456991_1.pdf?1710273714000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626456991_1.pdf?1710273714000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Research: Summary and Review of 2024 Fiscal Series Outlook', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,聂天奇', 'originalContent': '核心观点：伴随今年财政预算草案的发布，2024年财政政策的基调和方向基本“尘埃落定”。银河宏观团队自去年年底便开始密切关注财政政策的变化，实际上从2023年到2024年，财政政策逻辑的确发生了显著调整，从“一揽子化债”到“新增万亿国债”再到“超长期特别国债”，新一轮积极财政政策如期而至，财政逆周期调节和结构性调整的工具和方向均发生了系统性变化。为此，我们对财政政策展望的系列报告进行再次梳理和总结，回答几个关键问题。对于之前对财政关注不多的投资者，相信通过该篇报告可以对2024年财政政策变化有一个全面了解。一、如何理解新一轮“积极财政”的政策内涵？财政作为宏观调控和国家治理的支柱，在不同时期有不同使命任务。读懂财政政策，首先要准确把握政策内涵。我们在《2024年财政政策展望：积极财政的新内涵》一文中回顾了过去三轮积极财政政策背后的逻辑演变，特别是2023年逆周期回归的现实原因。在此基础上，我们提出：鉴于当前宏观经济形势发生了重要转变，2024年或将是新一轮积极财政“元年”，新内涵将兼顾“防风险”与“稳增长”，执行上具备“相机抉择”的动态选择。与之对应的政策工具便是“化债一揽子政策”及超长期特别国债。二、2024年地方化债可能以何种方式推进？我国先后进行过三轮化债，但为何隐形债务问题总是“野火烧不尽”？对此，我们在《从国际经验看化解中国地方债务的出路》一文中详细分析了债务风险的形成机制：由于地方政府基于“土地财政”有了不受预算约束的自主融资能力，使得过去我国面临类似于欧洲“货币统一、财权独立”的矛盾困境。但有别于欧元区无法统一财政的先天缺陷，中国可以通过加强中央统筹的财政体制来逐步控制和化解地方政府债务风险。其次，我们在《2024年地方化债何去何从？》一文中又对2024年地方化债的背景进行了分析：过去高风险地区的转移支付、债务、投资增长显著高于其人口流入、GDP占比，是一种不可持续的基建和公共服务过剩，未来“钱随人走”将是财政政策调整的重要方向。三、如何看待超长期特别国债？如果说财政政策有“热搜榜”，超长期特别国债无疑是2024年的头条。为何要发行特别国债，怎么发，对经济和市场又会有那些影响？为回答上述问题，我们在春节前发布的《如何看待超长期特别国债？》一文中对超长期政府债的历史和存量结构进行了详细分析，同时对于发行超长期特别国债的政策意图、审批节点、发行方式、流动性影响进行了预测和推演。四、如何理解今年3%赤字率目标，以及财政政策有何转变？去年10月份新增万亿国债之后，预算赤字率达到3.8%，为此市场对于今年赤字率的普遍预期在3.5%左右，而政府工作报告中3%的赤字率目标是否表达了财政政策的相对克制？我们在《如何理解3%赤字率目标？》一文中分析：3%的目标赤字率更多体现的是对于政府行政开支的财政约束，而非政策力度的紧缩，2024年“适度加力”的财政力度并未弱于去年。虽然财政政策力度未有减弱，但从今年财政预算草案中可以看出政策支持方向及方式均有所转变。我们在《预算草案的五大焦点》一文中，列举了了几处关键变化：一是财政首要支持政策转向经济转型和科技创新；二是“大国大城”战略下财政和基建转向人口流入的发达经济带；三是广义财政显著扩张，但主体转向中央负债；四是土地收入目标背后隐含了中央对于地产的预期趋于平稳；五是国有资本经营预算反映地方“盘活存量”压力大幅缓解。', 'content': 'Core point of view: With the release of this year\\'s fiscal budget draft, the tone and direction of fiscal policy in 2024 have basically \"settled.\" The Galaxy Macro team has been paying close attention to changes in fiscal policy since the end of last year. In fact, from 2023 to 2024, the logic of fiscal policy has indeed undergone significant adjustments, from \"a package of debt\" to \"new trillions of national debt\" to \"Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds\" and a new round of proactive fiscal policies have arrived as scheduled, and the tools and directions of fiscal countercyclical adjustments and structural adjustments have undergone systematic changes. To this end, we have once again sorted out and summarized the series of reports on fiscal policy outlook to answer several key questions. For investors who have not paid much attention to finance before, I believe that this report can provide a comprehensive understanding of the changes in fiscal policy in 2024. 1. How to understand the policy connotation of the new round of “active finance”? As the pillar of macro-control and national governance, finance has different missions and tasks in different periods. To understand fiscal policy, we must first accurately grasp the policy connotation. In the article \"Fiscal Policy Outlook 2024: The New Connotation of Active Fiscal Policy\", we reviewed the logical evolution behind the past three rounds of active fiscal policies, especially the practical reasons for the countercyclical return in 2023. On this basis, we propose: In view of the important changes that have taken place in the current macroeconomic situation, 2024 may be the \"first year\" of a new round of proactive fiscal policy. The new connotation will take into account \"risk prevention\" and \"stabilizing growth\", and the implementation will be qualified. Dynamic selection of \"camera selection\". The corresponding policy tools are the \"debt reduction package\" and ultra-long-term special government bonds. 2. In what ways may localized bonds be promoted in 2024? Our country has carried out three rounds of debt reduction, but why is the hidden debt problem always \"wildfire burning\"? In this regard, we analyzed the formation mechanism of debt risk in detail in the article \"The Way to Resolve China\\'s Local Debt from International Experience\": Because local governments have independent financing capabilities without budget constraints based on \"land finance\", China\\'s past It faces a contradictory dilemma similar to Europe\\'s \"monetary unity and financial independence\". But unlike the Eurozone, which has the inherent flaw of being unable to unify its finances, China can gradually control and resolve local government debt risks by strengthening its centrally coordinated fiscal system. Secondly, we discussed in \"Where Will Localized Debt Go in 2024?\" \"The article also analyzes the background of localized debt in 2024: in the past, the growth of transfer payments, debt, and investment in high-risk areas were significantly higher than their population inflow and GDP ratio, which is an unsustainable infrastructure and public services In the future, \"money follows people\" will be an important direction for fiscal policy adjustment. 3. How do you view ultra-long-term special treasury bonds? If there is a \"hot search list\" for fiscal policy, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will undoubtedly be the headline in 2024. Why is it necessary to issue special treasury bonds, how to issue them, and what impact will it have on the economy and market? In order to answer the above questions, we released before the Spring Festival \"How to treat ultra-long-term special treasury bonds?\" \"The article provides a detailed analysis of the history and stock structure of ultra-long-term government bonds, and also predicts and deduce the policy intentions, approval nodes, issuance methods, and liquidity impacts of the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds. 4. How to understand this year’s 3% deficit ratio target and any changes in fiscal policy? After the trillions of new national debts were added in October last year, the budget deficit rate reached 3.8%. For this reason, the market\\'s general expectation for this year\\'s deficit rate is around 3.5%. Does the 3% deficit rate target in the government work report express the relative importance of fiscal policy? restraint? We are in \"How to Understand the 3% Deficit Ratio Target?\" Analysis in the article: The target deficit rate of 3% reflects more of the fiscal constraints on government administrative expenditures rather than the tightening of policy intensity. The \"moderate increase\" of fiscal intensity in 2024 is not weaker than last year. Although the intensity of fiscal policy has not weakened, it can be seen from this year\\'s fiscal budget draft that the direction and method of policy support have changed. In the article \"Five Focuses of the Budget Draft\", we listed several key changes: first, the primary fiscal support policy shifts to economic transformation and technological innovation; second, under the \"big country, big city\" strategy, fiscal and infrastructure shifts to developed economies with population inflows. The third is that broad fiscal expansion has significantly expanded, but the main body has turned to the central government\\'s liabilities; fourth, the land revenue target implies that the central government\\'s expectations for real estate have stabilized; fifth, the state-owned capital operating budget reflects that the pressure on local governments to \"revitalize stock\" has been significantly relieved.', 'authorid': UUID('bd8b59b5-0702-5498-bd36-917d7e164bee'), 'sentimentScore': 0.27849033288657665, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8LK6NCLGQOTTN3NQ9Q76LDIRUJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:46:28 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8LK6NCLGQOTTN3NQ9Q76LDIRUJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('82ba235d-b9c1-5e3f-a086-d5f677ef932f'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Comments: Five Signals of the 2024 Plan Report', 'author': 'He Ning', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elzYAhLWmj9qxb2MfR+xhe3g=', 'researcher': '何宁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elzYAhLWmj9qxb2MfR+xhe3g=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626455583_1.pdf?1710266208000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626455583_1.pdf?1710266208000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Comments: Five Signals of the 2024 Plan Report', 'originalAuthor': '何宁', 'originalContent': '事件：3月5日，国家发改委作《关于2023年国民经济和社会发展计划执行情况与2024年国民经济和社会发展计划草案的报告》，以下简称“《计划报告》”。价格预期目标或隐含公用事业及资源品价格改革2024年或开展公用事业及资源品价格改革，或影响物价水平。《计划报告》在2024年居民CPI目标段落提出，2024年3%的CPI目标“为加大宏观政策调控力度和深化价格改革留有一定余地”，《计划报告》在改革篇章也提及“有序推进水电气热等公用事业和公共服务价格改革”。我们提示，公用事业及资源品价格改革或影响物价水平：一则水电气热等公用事业是居民消费支出的一部分，其价格变动会直接影响CPI；二则水电燃气等价格变动��将影响其他生产性行业尤其是中上游高耗能行业的运行成本，从而通过PPI间接向CPI传导。此外，公用事业产品价格机制调整一方面会拉动居民消费指数上行，另一方面或为政府财政收入来源打开新的可能性。货币政策仍有空间，融资供给将向高质量发展倾斜降准降息仍可期，宽货币或推动物价温和回升。《计划报告》中CPI目标“为加大宏观政策调控力度和深化价格改革留有一定余地”、潘行长部长记者会讲话中“央行将把维护价格稳定、推动价格温和回升作为货币政策的重要考量”均指向宽货币或成为推动物价温和回升的因素之一。我们认为2024年货币政策仍有宽松空间，央行或采取降准、降息等手段推动社会融资成本下行。新质生产力的工作抓手：制造业设立能耗标准；加大前沿科技领域投入《计划报告》中具体阐明了推进现代化产业体系建设和加快形成新质生产力的六项重点工作。有两个主要关注点：1、制造业技改将以技术、能耗标准为牵引。在传统产业转型和升级方面，《计划报告》强调“实施制造业核心竞争力提升行动、技术改造升级工程”。结合后文中“以提高技术、能耗、排放等标准为牵引，推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造”，我们认为本轮制造业更新改造的基础或是设立技术或能耗类标准，从而驱动不符合标准的企业提高技术水平或降低设备能耗。2、新兴和未来产业多为前沿硬科技领域。《计划报告》明确新兴产业包括新能源汽车、生物制造、商业航天、新材料、低空经济等；而未来产业的含义涵盖量子技术、生命科学、人工智能、氢能、核聚变等新赛道和新能源产业。改革：财税体制、民营经济、市场体系改革为重点1、新一轮财税体制改革或涉及完善优化地方税和转移支付体系。《计划报告》指出，“谋划新一轮财税体制改革，研究健全地方税体系，研究建立完善促进高质量发展的转移支付激励约束机制”。2024年财政预算草案也同样指出“谋划新一轮财税体制改革”，具体包括“研究健全地方税体系，推动消费税改革，完善增值税制度”等。对比2023年财政预算草案只是“进一步深化财税体制改革”，且关于制度改革的表述较少。我们认为，2024年财税制度领域的改革或着眼于完善政府税收体系，例如消费税、房地产税等税收的改革，以及完善政府间转移支付制度、中央和地方财权和事权的划分等。2、《计划报告》在改革章节重点提到了国企和民企的改革、深化市场体系改革、深化重点领域改革、优化营商环境四个方面。区域发展：促进区域战略间联动融合发展《计划报告》针对区域协调发展、优化区域经济布局展开较多笔墨，“区域战略融合发展先行探索”方面，具体举措包括京津冀、长江经济带、粤港澳大湾区、长三角、西部开发等多个区域产业发展规划。新型城镇化方面，推动城镇化率低且人口规模大的市县协调推进新型工业化城镇化，加快培育特色优势产业集群，增强县城综合承载能力。风险提示：经济超预期下行；政策执行力度不及预期。', 'content': 'Event: On March 5, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the \"Report on the Implementation of the National Economic and Social Development Plan in 2023 and the Draft National Economic and Social Development Plan in 2024\", hereinafter referred to as the \"Plan Report\". The expected price target may imply price reform of public utilities and resource products in 2024, which may affect the price level. The \"Plan Report\" states in the 2024 resident CPI target paragraph that the 3% CPI target in 2024 \"leaves some room for increasing macro-policy control and deepening price reform.\" The \"Plan Report\" also mentions in the reform chapter that \"there is We will advance the price reform of public utilities and public services such as water, electricity, and heating in an orderly manner.” We remind that the price reform of public utilities and resource products may affect the price level: First, public utilities such as water, electricity, and heating are part of residents’ consumption expenditures, and their price changes will directly affect CPI; second, price changes such as water, electricity, and gas will also affect other production The operating costs of the sex industry, especially the high energy-consuming industries in the middle and upper reaches, are indirectly transmitted to CPI through PPI. In addition, adjustments to the price mechanism for public utility products will, on the one hand, drive up the household consumption index, and on the other hand, may open up new possibilities for government revenue sources. There is still room for monetary policy, financing supply will be tilted towards high-quality development, and interest rate cuts are still expected. Easing money may promote a moderate recovery in prices. The CPI target in the \"Plan Report\" \"leaves some room for increasing macroeconomic policy control and deepening price reform\", and in Governor Pan\\'s speech at the press conference, \"the central bank will regard maintaining price stability and promoting a moderate price recovery as an important consideration in monetary policy.\" All point to loose money as one of the factors driving a modest recovery in prices. We believe that there is still room for easing monetary policy in 2024, and the central bank may take measures such as lowering reserve requirements and interest rates to drive down social financing costs. The starting points for new quality productivity: setting energy consumption standards in the manufacturing industry; increasing investment in cutting-edge science and technology. The \"Plan Report\" specifically clarifies six key tasks to promote the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerate the formation of new quality productivity. There are two main concerns: 1. The technological transformation of the manufacturing industry will be driven by technology and energy consumption standards. In terms of the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, the \"Plan Report\" emphasizes \"implementing actions to enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and technological transformation and upgrading projects.\" Combined with the following article’s “driven by improving technology, energy consumption, emission and other standards to promote the update and technological transformation of various production equipment and service equipment”, we believe that the basis for this round of manufacturing renewal and transformation may be the establishment of technology or energy consumption standards , thereby driving companies that do not meet the standards to improve their technical level or reduce equipment energy consumption. 2. Emerging and future industries are mostly in cutting-edge hard technology fields. The \"Plan Report\" clarifies that emerging industries include new energy vehicles, biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, new materials, low-altitude economy, etc.; and the meaning of future industries covers quantum technology, life sciences, artificial intelligence, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion and other new tracks and New energy industry. Reform: Focus on the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, private economy, and market system. 1. The new round of fiscal and taxation system reform may involve improving and optimizing the local tax and transfer payment system. The \"Plan Report\" states, \"Plan a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform, study and improve the local tax system, and study and establish a transfer payment incentive and restraint mechanism to promote high-quality development.\" The 2024 fiscal budget draft also points out \"planning a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform\", which specifically includes \"research and improvement of the local tax system, promote consumption tax reform, and improve the value-added tax system\". In contrast, the 2023 fiscal budget draft only \"further deepens the reform of the fiscal and taxation system\" and has less statements about system reform. We believe that reforms in the fiscal and taxation system in 2024 may focus on improving the government tax system, such as the reform of consumption tax, real estate tax and other taxes, as well as improving the intergovernmental transfer payment system and the division of central and local financial and administrative powers. 2. In the reform chapter, the \"Plan Report\" focuses on four aspects: the reform of state-owned and private enterprises, deepening the reform of the market system, deepening the reform of key areas, and optimizing the business environment. Regional development: Promote the linkage and integrated development of regional strategies. The \"Plan Report\" focuses on coordinated regional development and optimizing regional economic layout. In terms of \"first exploration of regional strategic integrated development\", specific measures include Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Guangdong Industrial development plans for multiple regions including the Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Yangtze River Delta, and Western Development. In terms of new urbanization, we will promote cities and counties with low urbanization rates and large populations to coordinate the promotion of new industrialization and urbanization, accelerate the cultivation of characteristic and advantageous industrial clusters, and enhance the comprehensive carrying capacity of counties. Risk warning: The economy declines more than expected; policy implementation is less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('52a5389c-6434-575d-ad8f-dccb9d09cd11'), 'sentimentScore': -0.10836903005838394, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'FBC8Q74Q6MUTH8AUJBT2K07OVRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:47:02 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'FBC8Q74Q6MUTH8AUJBT2K07OVRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('657c3067-14a8-5214-92a6-0dca61cf2aff'), 'title': 'Major Assets Weekly Report No. 20: High Dividend Market, Where to Go in the Future?', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Jia Luxi, Li Xinyue', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el/zMtPbrsAvuhfjt4L4ZSwI=', 'researcher': '赵伟,贾璐熙,李欣越', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000456132', '11000446746'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el/zMtPbrsAvuhfjt4L4ZSwI=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626455199_1.pdf?1710265469000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626455199_1.pdf?1710265469000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Major Assets Weekly Report No. 20: High Dividend Market, Where to Go in the Future?', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,贾璐熙,李欣越', 'originalContent': '2023年11月20日以来，高股息板块“异军突起”。当下行情演绎到的阶段、与过往的异同？本文分析，供参考。热点思考：高股息行情，未来向何处去？一问：高股息缘何“异军突起”？低迷情绪下的“防御”属性，煤炭等产业结构的优化2021年以来，高股息板块持续占优；2023年12月以来，中证红利更是“异军突起”。本轮高股息板块的相对占优始于2021年；截至2023年11月19日，中证红利指数震荡上涨8.1%、而万得全A则大跌13.9%。2023年11月20日以来，高股息的优势进一步“凸显”，在万得全A下跌7.0%的背景下，中证红利指数继续大涨了10.9%。历史回溯来看，高股息行情多在“熊市”占优；2021年以来的高股息行情同样发生在相对弱势的市场环境中，但行业结构与基本面环境有一定变化。第一，区别于过往银行、家用电器等行业驱动的高股息行情，本轮中受益于产业格局优化的煤炭表现更为突出。第二，本轮行情受益于宽松流动性环境下“资金空转”，高股息“类债”逻辑更为突出。二问：当下高股息行情能延续吗？当前拥挤度并不高，有望受益增量资金与经济复苏当下，高股息持仓和成交拥挤度均未达极致水平，中证红利指数估值也处过去10年偏低水平，仍有一定修复空间。1）截至2023年6月30日，公募持仓中证红利成分股权重仅5.0%、低配比例达3.3%。2）2024年前2月，中证红利平均成交占比仅4.9%，处过去10年40%分位。3）截至3月8日，中证红利PE为过去10年的35%分位、相对偏低。向后看，保险类增量资金有望强化高股息行情，高股息的“顺周期”特征也将受益于经济的企稳复苏。一方面，经验显示，增量资金对于强势板块具有强化甚至决定性的影响；当下保险类资金权益仓位占比较低，在会计准则调整后或具有较高增配空间。另一方面，当下高股息行业中“顺周期”占比较高，经济企稳复苏的逻辑也构成一定利好。三问：后续板块内部可能的分化？部分行业拥挤度偏高，关注高分红率、高ROE两条逻辑链当下，煤炭、银行、石油石化股息率最高，其中煤炭等行业拥挤度、估值相对偏高，后续行情持续性或有所减弱。截至3月11日，银行与煤炭交易相对拥挤，拥挤度分处历史82%、67%分位数；估值层面，煤炭与石油石化过去10年PE历史分位数，分列32个申万一级行业第7、8，相对偏高。拥挤度与估值相对偏高，或约束煤炭等行业上行空间。若高股息策略进一步扩散，可以关注高分红率与高ROE两条逻辑链。高分红逻辑：股息率取决于每股盈利和股利支付率，交运、公用事业和纺服盈利增速较快，且产业生命周期处于成熟或后成熟期，预计未来2年股息率仍有较大提升空间。高ROE逻辑：每股盈利最终取决于ROE，从ROE较高的行业来看，食品饮料和家用电器行业或将相对受益。周度回顾：全球股指涨跌分化，黄金价格创历史新高（2024/03/04-2024/03/08）股票市场：发达国家股指多数下跌，新兴市场股指多数上涨。发达国家股指，纳斯达克指数下跌1.2%，法国CAC40上涨1.2%；新兴市场股指，韩国综合指数上涨1.4%，泰国SET指数上涨1.4%，上证指数上涨0.6%。债券市场：发达国家10年期国债收益率多数下跌。美国10年期国债收益率下行10bp至4.09%，德国10年期国债收益率下行14bp至2.28%，法国10年期国债收益率下行18bp至2.71%，英国国债收益率下行8bp至4.03%。外汇市场：美元指数下行,人民币兑美元小幅升值。美元指数下行1%至102.7，美元兑人民币贬值0.2%，美元兑在岸人民币和离岸人民币均为7.2。欧元兑美元升值0.9%，英镑兑美元升值1.5%；主要新兴市场兑美元多数下跌。商品市场：农产品全线上涨，原油价格下跌。豆粕上涨4.8%，WTI原油价格下跌2.5%，受美国降息预期以及全球央行购金影响，黄金价格创历史新高，升至2177.8美元/盎司；通胀预期降至2.3%，10Y美债实际收益率降至1.8%。风险提示成长风格走强；拥挤度进一步提升；潜在高股息行业不及预期', 'content': 'Since November 20, 2023, the high-dividend sector has \"suddenly emerged.\" What stage has the current market reached, and what are the similarities and differences with the past? This article is analyzed for reference. Hot thoughts: High dividend market, where will it go in the future? Question: Why did high dividends suddenly emerge? The \"defensive\" attribute under the downturn and the optimization of industrial structures such as coal. Since 2021, the high-dividend sector has continued to dominate; since December 2023, CSI dividends have become a \"sudden rise\". The relative dominance of the high-dividend sector in this round began in 2021; as of November 19, 2023, the CSI Dividend Index fluctuated and rose by 8.1%, while Wind Quan A plummeted by 13.9%. Since November 20, 2023, the advantages of high dividends have been further \"prominent\". Against the background of Wind Quan A falling 7.0%, the CSI Dividend Index has continued to rise by 10.9%. Looking back at history, high dividend markets mostly dominate in \"bear markets\"; high dividend markets since 2021 also occur in a relatively weak market environment, but there are certain changes in the industry structure and fundamental environment. First, unlike the high dividend market driven by banks, household appliances and other industries in the past, coal, which has benefited from the optimization of the industrial structure, has performed more prominently in this round. Second, the current market situation has benefited from the \"idle flow of funds\" in the loose liquidity environment, and the \"debt-like\" logic of high dividends has become more prominent. Second question: Can the current high dividend market continue? The current congestion level is not high, and it is expected to benefit from the incremental funds and economic recovery. At present, high dividend holdings and transaction congestion have not reached the extreme level. The valuation of the CSI Dividend Index is also at the low level of the past 10 years, and there is still some room for repair. . 1) As of June 30, 2023, the weight of CSI dividend component stocks held by public offerings is only 5.0%, and the underweight ratio reaches 3.3%. 2) In the first two months of 2024, the average transaction proportion of CSI dividends was only 4.9%, which was at the 40% percentile in the past 10 years. 3) As of March 8, CSI Dividend PE was at the 35% level in the past 10 years, which is relatively low. Looking backward, incremental insurance funds are expected to strengthen the market for high dividends, and the \"procyclical\" characteristics of high dividends will also benefit from the stabilization and recovery of the economy. On the one hand, experience shows that incremental funds have a strengthening or even decisive impact on strong sectors; the current proportion of insurance fund equity positions is relatively low, and there may be higher room for additional allocations after adjustments to accounting standards. On the other hand, the current proportion of \"procyclical\" industries in high-dividend industries is relatively high, and the logic of economic stabilization and recovery also constitutes a certain benefit. Third question: What are the possible differentiations within the sector in the future? Some industries are highly crowded and focus on the two logical chains of high dividend rate and high ROE. At present, coal, banking, and petroleum and petrochemicals have the highest dividend rates. Among them, coal and other industries are relatively crowded and have relatively high valuations. The subsequent market may be sustainable. weaken. As of March 11, banking and coal transactions were relatively crowded, with congestion levels at the 82% and 67% historical quantiles; at the valuation level, the historical PE quantiles for coal and petroleum and petrochemicals in the past 10 years were ranked 32 Shenwan. The first-level industry ranks 7th and 8th, which is relatively high. The relatively high congestion and valuation may limit the upside potential of industries such as coal. If high dividend strategies are further spread, you can focus on the two logical chains of high dividend rate and high ROE. High dividend logic: The dividend rate depends on the earnings per share and the dividend payout rate. The profits of transportation, public utilities and textile clothing are growing rapidly, and the industry life cycle is in a mature or post-mature stage. It is expected that the dividend rate will still be relatively high in the next two years. Big room for improvement. High ROE logic: Earnings per share ultimately depends on ROE. From the perspective of industries with higher ROE, the food and beverage and household appliance industries may benefit relatively. Weekly review: Global stock indexes rose and fell, and the price of gold hit a record high (2024/03/04-2024/03/08) Stock market: Most stock indexes in developed countries fell, while most stock indexes in emerging markets rose. Developed country stock indexes, the Nasdaq fell 1.2%, France\\'s CAC40 rose 1.2%; emerging market stock indexes, South Korea\\'s Composite Index rose 1.4%, Thailand\\'s SET Index rose 1.4%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.6%. Bond market: Most 10-year government bond yields in developed countries fell. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 10bp to 4.09%, the German 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 14bp to 2.28%, the French 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 18bp to 2.71%, and the British Treasury bond yield fell 8bp to 4.03%. Foreign exchange market: The U.S. dollar index fell, and the RMB appreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar. The US dollar index fell 1% to 102.7, the US dollar depreciated 0.2% against the RMB, and the US dollar against both onshore RMB and offshore RMB was 7.2. The euro appreciated 0.9% against the US dollar, and the pound appreciated 1.5% against the US dollar; most major emerging markets fell against the US dollar. Commodity market: Agricultural products rose across the board, while crude oil prices fell. Soybean meal rose 4.8%, while WTI crude oil prices fell 2.5%. Affected by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and gold purchases by global central banks, gold prices hit a record high, rising to $2,177.8 per ounce; inflation expectations fell to 2.3%, and the actual yield on 10Y U.S. Treasury bonds fell. to 1.8%. Risk reminder: growth style is strengthening; congestion is further increasing; potential high-dividend industries are lower than expected', 'authorid': UUID('6120e22e-df37-5105-8a6c-dafce37f539a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.015997406095266342, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'NLQDDKM16PFMU6GCCGK09DR7S3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:47:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'NLQDDKM16PFMU6GCCGK09DR7S3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('26a27727-df59-5999-b39a-6197a1db3d06'), 'title': 'Interpretation of import and export data from January to February: The low base effect appears, and the import and export data has a \"good start\"', 'author': 'Shen Xiayi', 'orgName': '联储证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80036123', 'orgSName': '联储证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elyYr/SFxz7/abFaYFMKKx+E=', 'researcher': '沈夏宜', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000444136'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elyYr/SFxz7/abFaYFMKKx+E=', 'site': 'Fed Securities, Inc.', 'originalSite': '联储证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626455197_1.pdf?1710266047000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626455197_1.pdf?1710266047000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of import and export data from January to February: The low base effect appears, and the import and export data has a \"good start\"', 'originalAuthor': '沈夏宜', 'originalContent': '投资要点：1-2月进出口数据超预期改善，可能系春节较晚所致。以美元计价，1-2月出口总值为5,280.14亿美元，同比上升7.0%；进口总值为为4,028.51亿美元，同比微增3.5%。以人民币计价，1-2月出口总值为37,523.24亿元，同比增长10.2%，；进口总值为28,614.63亿元，同比增加6.7%。2023年春节较早，叠加疫情放开早期生产和需求恢复较慢，导致2023年同期进出口数据明显下滑。对拉丁美洲和非洲出口显著增长，消费品和机电产品出口均有所改善。1-2月，我国对美国、欧盟和东盟出口基本保持稳定，同比增长分别为2.59%、-2.30%和0.06%；对拉丁美洲和非洲出口显著增长，同比增长分别为19.00%和15.47%，其中对巴西出口同比大幅增长33.8%。商品方面，消费品显著改善，同比涨幅均为两位数；机电产品出口金额为3,119.72亿美元，同比增长8.5%，为同期次高，仅次于2022年，其中通用机械设备出口110.26亿美元，同比大幅增长32.0%，创同期新高。对荷兰和巴西进口快速增长，电子行业进口有所回暖。1-2月，我国对主要区域的进口情况出现分化，对美国、欧盟和日本���口有所下滑，其中，对荷兰进口在对欧盟进口整体下滑的情况下，逆势增长22.64%；对东盟、韩国、俄罗斯、拉丁美洲和非洲进口同比增长，其中，巴西作为中国拉丁美洲最重要的贸易伙伴，同比增长35.40%。商品方面，机电产品和高新技术产品进口景气度回升，同比增长7.70%和11.90%，可能系电子行业有所回暖叠加去年同期低基数所致。对3月进出口表现的预期不宜过分乐观，全年出口有望逐季改善。1-2月进出口数据的超预期改善，更多的是去年同期低基数效应所致，经济复苏情况仍需进一步观察。全年来看，外需韧性仍在，以巴西为代表的拉丁美洲与中国贸易持续加深，出口快速增长，有望成为支撑中国出口的新增长点。风险提示：海外经济不及预期、“一带一路”推进不及预期、中美摩擦升级风险、地缘政治风险等', 'content': \"Investment points: The import and export data from January to February improved beyond expectations, which may be due to the late Spring Festival. In US dollars, the total export value from January to February was US$528.014 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%; the total import value was US$402.851 billion, a slight increase of 3.5% year-on-year. In RMB terms, the total export value from January to February was 3,752.324 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%; the total import value was 2,861.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The Spring Festival in 2023 is early, and the early release of the epidemic and the slow recovery of demand have led to a significant decline in import and export data in the same period of 2023. Exports to Latin America and Africa increased significantly, and exports of consumer goods and mechanical and electrical products improved. From January to February, China's exports to the United States, the European Union and ASEAN remained basically stable, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.59%, -2.30% and 0.06% respectively; exports to Latin America and Africa increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.00% and 15.47% respectively. , among which exports to Brazil increased significantly by 33.8% year-on-year. In terms of commodities, consumer goods improved significantly, with double-digit year-on-year increases; the export value of mechanical and electrical products was US$311.972 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, the second highest in the same period, second only to 2022, of which general machinery and equipment exports were US$11.026 billion. A significant year-on-year increase of 32.0%, a new high for the same period. Imports from the Netherlands and Brazil have grown rapidly, and imports from the electronics industry have picked up. From January to February, China's imports from major regions diverged, with imports from the United States, the European Union and Japan declining. Among them, imports from the Netherlands bucked the trend and increased by 22.64% despite the overall decline in imports from the EU; imports from ASEAN, Imports from South Korea, Russia, Latin America and Africa increased year-on-year. Among them, Brazil, China's most important trading partner in Latin America, increased by 35.40% year-on-year. In terms of commodities, the import boom of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products rebounded, with year-on-year growth of 7.70% and 11.90%, which may be due to the rebound in the electronics industry and the low base in the same period last year. Expectations for import and export performance in March should not be overly optimistic. Exports throughout the year are expected to improve quarter by quarter. The unexpected improvement in import and export data from January to February is more due to the low base effect in the same period last year, and the economic recovery still needs further observation. Throughout the year, the resilience of external demand remains. Trade between Latin America and China, represented by Brazil, continues to deepen and exports grow rapidly, which is expected to become a new growth point supporting China's exports. Risk warning: Overseas economy falls short of expectations, “Belt and Road” progress falls short of expectations, risks of escalating Sino-US frictions, geopolitical risks, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('048abd73-2d86-5b69-b228-9c48baf20f63'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9294358864426613, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'ODHQ9NKACDKH9LVNEF5NQ3HSQJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:47:07 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'ODHQ9NKACDKH9LVNEF5NQ3HSQJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7efa2cf4-a7d8-5594-95f0-2f6d8a2a6bbe'), 'title': 'Comments on foreign trade data from January to February 2024: Foreign trade revives and high surplus continues', 'author': 'Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli', 'orgName': '上海证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000155', 'orgSName': '上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elyL1JMuWnvRiD8J43/FMguk=', 'researcher': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172617', '11000235839'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elyL1JMuWnvRiD8J43/FMguk=', 'site': 'Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '上海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626455195_1.pdf?1710265154000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626455195_1.pdf?1710265154000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on foreign trade data from January to February 2024: Foreign trade revives and high surplus continues', 'originalAuthor': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'originalContent': '主要观点外贸开年双回升1-2月进出口双双回升，顺差扩张较快。出口方面，发达国家制造业景气度多数回落，外需偏软，但出口仍然维持了强韧。从出口国别来看，主要发达国家中除对日本出口下滑外，其余均保持了不同程度的增长或改善。从出口商品来看，劳动密集型产品均保持了较快增长；机电商品中除了手机和汽车外均有所回升，汽车高位回落，但仍维持了10%以上的增速。进口方面，从进口数量来看，主要进口商品增速除原油、铜以外以下降为主。虽然大宗商品、原材料进口有所下降，但机电产品增长加快，带动进口整体的回升。1-2月由于出口回升幅度更大，贸易顺差同比增长高达20.5%，高顺差得以延续。市场有望走稳回暖我们认为宏观环境变化为我国资本市场运行步入平稳回暖的新阶段奠定了基础。我们认为，在政策激励和经济韧性影响下，中国经济运行平稳态势不变，随着政策效应逐渐呈现，2024年中国经济和资本市场运行或将演绎双回暖格局。我们认为，未来“宏观平稳、微观改善”的宏观运行趋势，有利于资本市场走稳回暖。优势地位延续，高顺差得以保障出口重振，扭转了去年下半年以来持续下降的态势，企稳反弹，高顺差延续。我们认为外贸的走势也反映了中国经济在世界经济格局中的制造中心地位稳固态势已成，在国际经济竞争中的这种优势地位，在未来较长时期内仍将延续。因此未来外贸增长趋平，高顺差仍将延续。我们认为高货物顺差将有助于中国外储的稳定，不过由于中国货币基础货币投放能力待提升的局面没有改变，未来降准、降息仍可期待。风险提示俄乌冲突、中东冲突等地缘政治事件恶化，国际金融形势改变；中国通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。', 'content': 'Main points: Foreign trade rebounded at the beginning of the year. Imports and exports both rebounded from January to February, and the surplus expanded rapidly. In terms of exports, the manufacturing boom in most developed countries has declined and external demand has been soft, but exports have remained strong. From the perspective of exporting countries, except for the decline in exports to Japan, all major developed countries have maintained growth or improvement to varying degrees. From the perspective of export commodities, labor-intensive products have maintained rapid growth; mechanical and electrical products have rebounded except for mobile phones and automobiles, and automobiles have fallen back from highs, but still maintained a growth rate of more than 10%. In terms of imports, from the perspective of import quantity, the growth rate of major imported commodities, except crude oil and copper, mainly declined. Although imports of bulk commodities and raw materials have declined, the growth of mechanical and electrical products has accelerated, driving an overall rebound in imports. From January to February, due to a greater rebound in exports, the trade surplus increased by as much as 20.5% year-on-year, and the high surplus continued. The market is expected to stabilize and pick up. We believe that changes in the macro environment have laid the foundation for my country\\'s capital market to enter a new stage of steady recovery. We believe that under the influence of policy incentives and economic resilience, China\\'s economic performance remains stable. As the policy effects gradually emerge, China\\'s economy and capital market operations may perform a double recovery pattern in 2024. We believe that the future macro operation trend of \"macro stability and micro improvement\" will be conducive to the stabilization and recovery of the capital market. The dominant position continued, and the high surplus ensured the revitalization of exports, reversing the downward trend since the second half of last year. It stabilized and rebounded, and the high surplus continued. We believe that the trend of foreign trade also reflects that China\\'s economy has become firmly established as the manufacturing center in the world economic structure. This dominant position in international economic competition will continue for a long time to come. Therefore, foreign trade growth will level off in the future and high surpluses will continue. We believe that a high goods surplus will help stabilize China\\'s foreign reserves. However, as China\\'s monetary base currency injection capacity needs to be improved, future reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts can still be expected. Risks suggest that geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East conflict have worsened, and the international financial situation has changed; China\\'s inflation has risen beyond expectations, and China\\'s monetary policy has changed beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('23836b0d-75e0-5a50-a109-862fde53e3bf'), 'sentimentScore': 0.45586763322353363, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'E357TVFUJLQS5LDTN0A1S55KFJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:47:10 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'E357TVFUJLQS5LDTN0A1S55KFJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f12f7fee-e19b-5777-961a-994e77d0e617'), 'title': 'Weekly Economic Observation: The market’s pricing paradigm may continue', 'author': 'Yuan Fang , Shu Jiapei', 'orgName': '国投证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80084302', 'orgSName': '国投证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el9KR9zK9MdyZrXcDu0fUCbE=', 'researcher': '袁方,束加沛', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000337134', '11000370131'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el9KR9zK9MdyZrXcDu0fUCbE=', 'site': 'SDIC Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626451834_1.pdf?1710262087000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626451834_1.pdf?1710262087000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly Economic Observation: The market’s pricing paradigm may continue', 'originalAuthor': '袁方,束加沛', 'originalContent': '内容提要最新公布的贸易和通胀数据显示，我国内外需之间仍然存在分化。全球制造业的恢复有望继续推动我国出口活动温和回升，而房地产行业的减速对总需求的拖累或将延续。从市场定价来看，万科违约的风险短期缓解，压力的扩散被阶段性阻断，市场的担忧情绪缓和，二次探底的风险得到管控。不过权益市场能否转化为趋势上涨，仍然需要基本面信号的确认，这无疑需要时间。政策的出台和拥挤的交易可能会放大债券市场的波动，但考虑到资本报酬率的回落、温和的通胀环境以及趋于下行的贷款利率，我国债券市场利率中枢或许仍然在下行途中。风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险（2）政策出台超预期', 'content': \"Executive summary The latest trade and inflation data show that there is still a divide between domestic and foreign demand in China. The recovery of the global manufacturing industry is expected to continue to promote a moderate rebound in my country's export activities, while the slowdown in the real estate industry may continue to drag down total demand. From the perspective of market pricing, the risk of Vanke's default has been alleviated in the short term, the spread of pressure has been blocked in stages, market concerns have eased, and the risk of a second dip has been controlled. However, whether the equity market can be transformed into an upward trend still requires confirmation of fundamental signals, which will undoubtedly take time. The introduction of policies and crowded transactions may amplify the volatility of the bond market, but considering the fall in the return on capital, the moderate inflation environment and the downward trend of loan interest rates, the interest rate center of my country's bond market may still be on the way down. Risk warning: (1) Geopolitical risks (2) Policy introduction exceeds expectations\", 'authorid': UUID('66c81f3c-61e1-5d1f-95e1-6739dac1004e'), 'sentimentScore': -0.024565786123275757, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TFFJ908CAIDGQCU278BHJFH8JRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:47:12 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TFFJ908CAIDGQCU278BHJFH8JRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1a34bbf9-d6b0-5986-8903-b81ed8789f39'), 'title': 'Macro Observation Issue 17, 2024 (Total Issue 528): Interpretation 3 of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have become an important starting point for strengthening fiscal policy and improving efficiency*', 'author': 'Ye Yindan, Liu Chen', 'orgName': '中国银行', 'orgCode': '80001122', 'orgSName': '中国银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elzdrEYvHdQZfX3sQ1CGnucI=', 'researcher': '叶银丹,刘晨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000318748', '11000382833'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elzdrEYvHdQZfX3sQ1CGnucI=', 'site': 'Bank of China', 'originalSite': '中国银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626448834_1.pdf?1710260954000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626448834_1.pdf?1710260954000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Observation Issue 17, 2024 (Total Issue 528): Interpretation 3 of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have become an important starting point for strengthening fiscal policy and improving efficiency*', 'originalAuthor': '叶银丹,刘晨', 'originalContent': '3月5日，李强总理在十四届全国人大二次会议上做了《政府工作报告》（以下简称《报告》）。《报告》回顾了2023年的政府工作，提出了2024年经济社会发展预期目标、总体要求和政策取向，部署了2024年政府工作重点任务。其中，《报告》提出将连续几年发行超长期特别国债，今年先发行1万亿元，超出市场预期。本文重点分析了2024年财政政策力度，在梳理过去超长期特别国债发行情况的基础上，分析了本轮超长期特别国债发行的原因和影响，并提出相关政策建议。', 'content': 'On March 5, Premier Li Qiang delivered the \"Government Work Report\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Report\") at the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress. The \"Report\" reviews the government\\'s work in 2023, puts forward the expected goals, overall requirements and policy orientation for economic and social development in 2024, and deploys the key tasks of the government\\'s work in 2024. Among them, the \"Report\" proposed that ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued for several consecutive years. This year, 1 trillion yuan will be issued first, exceeding market expectations. This article focuses on analyzing the intensity of fiscal policy in 2024. Based on sorting out the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in the past, it analyzes the causes and impacts of this round of ultra-long-term special treasury bond issuance, and puts forward relevant policy recommendations.', 'authorid': UUID('8ce0d131-8f3a-5d4d-bad0-0e960e9652ac'), 'sentimentScore': 0.05821179039776325, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3S1LH239S5E8H3GI9JM1N4LM1VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:47:14 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3S1LH239S5E8H3GI9JM1N4LM1VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('4bce7653-76a8-5aa2-a167-c006e29e9bf8'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Research Weekly Report: Domestic prices rebounded moderately, and U.S. non-farm data exceeded expectations', 'author': 'Ye Bin', 'orgName': '财信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000140', 'orgSName': '财信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elz67TF5A6QzQOu/9244+Zp8=', 'researcher': '叶彬', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000370137'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elz67TF5A6QzQOu/9244+Zp8=', 'site': 'Caixin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '财信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626448833_1.pdf?1710258603000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626448833_1.pdf?1710258603000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Research Weekly Report: Domestic prices rebounded moderately, and U.S. non-farm data exceeded expectations', 'originalAuthor': '叶彬', 'originalContent': '本周观点：国内方面，2024年2月份，全国CPI环比上涨1.0%，涨幅比上月扩大0.7个百分点；同比由上月下降0.8%转为上涨0.7%。核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅比上月扩大0.8个百分点，为2022年2月以来最高涨幅。同比来看，非食品中，服务价格上涨1.9%，涨幅扩大1.4个百分点，影响CPI上涨约0.76个百分点，其中旅游、飞机票和交通工具租赁费价格分别上涨23.1%、20.8%和17.4%。2024年春节假期偏长，春节消费景气度明显提升，春节电影票房打破记录、春节中长线出游明显回暖、免税消费大超预期，这与2月份核心CPI回升相互验证。2月份，受春节假日等因素���响，工业生产处于传统淡季，全国PPI环比下降0.2%，降幅与上月相同。总体来看，2月份CPI及PPI数据均受春节因素影响较大，暂无法判断其趋势。出口数据方面，受益于低基数，1-2月份按美元计价出口5280.1亿美元，增长7.1%，但两年年化增速-0.94%。其中，出口机电产品2.22万亿元，增长11.8%，占出口总值的59.1%。总体来看，2024年前2个月我国外贸进出口呈现出稳健的增长态势，但未来全球经济面临一些不确定性，如地缘政治风险、金融市场波动等，出口增速可能会受到一些外部因素的拖累。海外方面，美国劳工统计局于3月8日公布了最新就业数据，显示2月份美国非农就业人口增长达27.5万人，这一数字超出了市场预期的20万人，并且高于过去12个月平均每月23万人的增长。非农就业人口的增长超出了市场预期，表明美国经济仍然具有相当的韧性，劳动力市场需求强劲。但是，前两个月的非农就业人数总数经过修正后有所下降，这可能引发市场对于劳动力市场是否真正如预期般强劲的疑虑。另外，失业率意外上升至3.9%，这一数字虽然仍然处于相对较低的水平，但高于市场预期。总体来看，尽管2月非农数据表现亮眼，但前期经过修正的数据下降叠加失业率超预期，经济强劲势头仍存在不确定性，市场对美联储降息预期保持乐观情绪。国内热点：一、十四届全国人大二次会议听取关于政府工作的报告。二、央行发布《以区域金融改革为抓手做好“五篇大文章”》专栏文章。三、前2个月我国货物贸易进出口总值6.61万亿元人民币，同比增长8.7%。四、2月份CPI同比上涨0.7%，PPI同比下降2.7%。国际热点：一、美国2月非农就业增27.5万，超出市场预期。二、2月新兴市场录得连续第4个月外资净流入。上周高频数据跟踪：3月4日至3月8日，上证指数上涨0.63%，收报3046.02点；沪深300指数上涨0.43%，收报3544.91点；创业板指下跌0.92%，收报1807.29点。风险提示：国内政策超预期；欧美经济衰退风险加剧。', 'content': 'This week’s view: Domestically, in February 2024, the national CPI increased by 1.0% month-on-month, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month; the year-on-year decrease changed from a 0.8% decrease last month to an increase of 0.7%. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, the highest increase since February 2022. Year-on-year, among non-food items, service prices increased by 1.9%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.76 percentage points. Among them, the prices of travel, air tickets and transportation rental fees increased by 23.1%, 20.8% and 17.4% respectively. The Spring Festival holiday in 2024 is relatively long, and the consumption boom during the Spring Festival has improved significantly. The box office of Spring Festival movies has broken the record, medium and long-term travel during the Spring Festival has picked up significantly, and duty-free consumption has exceeded expectations. This is mutually verified by the rebound in core CPI in February. In February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and other factors, industrial production was in the traditional off-season, and the national PPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month, the same as the previous month. Overall, the CPI and PPI data in February were greatly affected by the Spring Festival factors, and it is temporarily impossible to judge their trends. In terms of export data, benefiting from the low base, exports in US dollars from January to February were US$528.01 billion, an increase of 7.1%, but the two-year annualized growth rate was -0.94%. Among them, the export of mechanical and electrical products was 2.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.8%, accounting for 59.1% of the total export value. Overall, my country\\'s foreign trade import and export showed a steady growth trend in the first two months of 2024. However, the global economy faces some uncertainties in the future, such as geopolitical risks, financial market fluctuations, etc., and the export growth rate may be affected by some external factors. drag. Overseas, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest employment data on March 8, showing that the U.S. non-farm employment population increased by 275,000 in February. This number exceeded market expectations of 200,000 and was higher than the past 12 months. The monthly average growth is 230,000 people per month. The growth in non-farm payroll employment exceeded market expectations, indicating that the U.S. economy is still quite resilient and the labor market demand is strong. However, nonfarm payroll employment totals for the first two months were revised down, which may raise questions about whether the labor market is truly as strong as expected. In addition, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9%. Although this number is still at a relatively low level, it is higher than market expectations. Overall, although the non-agricultural data in February performed well, the revised data dropped in the previous period and the unemployment rate exceeded expectations. There is still uncertainty about the strong economic momentum. The market remains optimistic about the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate cut expectations. Domestic hot topics: 1. The second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress heard reports on government work. 2. The central bank published a column titled \"Five Big Articles Taking Regional Financial Reform as the Focus\". 3. In the first two months, my country’s total import and export value of goods trade was 6.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. 4. In February, CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, and PPI decreased by 2.7% year-on-year. International hot spots: 1. The U.S. non-agricultural employment increased by 275,000 in February, exceeding market expectations. 2. In February, emerging markets recorded net foreign capital inflows for the fourth consecutive month. High-frequency data tracking last week: From March 4 to March 8, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63% to close at 3046.02 points; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.43% to close at 3544.91 points; the ChiNext Index fell 0.92% to close at 1807.29 points. Risk warning: Domestic policies have exceeded expectations; the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States has intensified.', 'authorid': UUID('4fda87f7-a5e2-53ab-b6c5-0b61d8c5eaae'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9307087250053883, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '30FF3K3FKTISFM7GKS1AV9695VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:47:17 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '30FF3K3FKTISFM7GKS1AV9695VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f4f69192-4ab1-5665-b362-e39f7688392c'), 'title': 'Overseas and major category weekly reports: Innovation narrative challenges recession expectations', 'author': 'Wu Kaida', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el1WVW3+mDe6vcrAnD0QW2ws=', 'researcher': '吴开达', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259142'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el1WVW3+mDe6vcrAnD0QW2ws=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626446954_1.pdf?1710251841000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626446954_1.pdf?1710251841000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas and major category weekly reports: Innovation narrative challenges recession expectations', 'originalAuthor': '吴开达', 'originalContent': '港股市场：1)恒指延续震荡整理。在政策预期兑现以及前期积累可观的涨幅后出现一定调整。3月4日至8日，风格层面，恒生高股息、中国央企与小盘因子均录得正收益，恒生科技回调显著达2.94%；行业方面，上游周期表现亮眼，原材料与能源板块分别上涨8.98%与5.40%，医疗保健与可选消费行业跌幅居首，分别下跌3.33%与3.60%；2)预期交易结束后，市场会围绕托而不举的政策基调，对风险出清以及产业升级两个方向进行政策落地观察。政府工作报告设定全年5%GDP增长目标、赤字率拟3%，从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，今年先发行1万亿元，政策托底力度较为温和，并未超出市场预期。后续关注点上，一方面针对房地产与地方政府的纾困措施仍是市场关切，若相关领域的局部风险得到有效遏制，经济有望重新回到正轨，扭转PMI与企业盈利低位震荡或偏弱的态势；另一方面，新质生产力主题下开展的“产业升级”与“发展支撑”将是2024年的两大投资主线，数字经济、科技制造景气仍在，等待后续产业具体政策落地为市场提供更多线索；3)配置方面，在政策预期躁动结束以及港元贬值压力尚未缓解的背景下，建议仍以波动率策略为主。短期内股息率较高的公用事业、能源、金融、电信等板块，即使未来市场波动率有所上升，也能在该环境中提供可观的相对收益；中长期而言，以半导体、互联网为代表的科技行业仍将是产业转型的主抓手，有望从政府支持以及国产替代中受益。美股市场：1)本周美股先扬后抑，主要指数略有收跌。Claude3大模型推出以及鲍威尔释放鸽派信号提振市场情绪，而随后2月季调失业率意外升至两年新高3.9%以及美股前期涨幅较大的背景下，科技板块遭遇回调。3月4日至8日���风格层面，以罗素2000为代表的小盘指数占优，标普500纯价值、罗素3000价值等价值指数占优；行业层面，公用事业(+3.19%)、原材料(+1.58%)、房地产(+1.46%)等板块涨幅居前，可选消费(-2.59%)、信息技术(-1.08%)、通信服务(-0.65%)等行业领跌市场；2)部分2月经济数据边际走弱引发衰退预期，但科技创新有望使美国经济保持韧性。2月ADP就业人数、服务业PMI不及预期，失业率升至3.9%创两年来新高，十年期美债收益率从3月4日4.22%回落至3月8日4.09%，反映市场衰退预期上升。尽管就业数据出现一定摇摆，但整体认为美国经济将在科技创新的加持下维持韧性。短期来看，费城半导体指数同比变化较制造业PMI有6个月领先性，伴随全球半导体销售回升以及AI龙头的技术进步，PMI指标或将企稳回升；长期来看，美国劳动生产率于2014年触底，尽管在2021至2022年间由于疫情影响而快速回落，但在于2022年中至今延续着上行趋势，劳动生产率连续回升区间内美国经济鲜有衰退状态；3)短期美股或存在技术回调风险。当前美股处于高离散、低相关状态，表明过多的涨幅累积在特定的板块中，此外市场宽度指标、VIX指数、美股主动投资仓位指数也纷纷指向市场或存在过热风险；4)配置层面，在科技革命尚在验证期、美联储年内降息以及美国经济软着陆的基准假设情形下，建议三条配置主线。一是海外大模型迭代加速对科技硬件形成强烈需求；二是利率敏感型板块有望从降息周期中受益，如医疗保健；三是尽管短期经济数据有所摇摆，但美国经济仍保持韧性，能源、原材料等顺周期板块具备一定配置性价比区间。风险提示：海外二次通胀压力；美国经济硬着陆风险；国际局势复杂化。', 'content': 'Hong Kong stock market: 1) The Hang Seng Index continued to fluctuate. Certain adjustments occurred after policy expectations were fulfilled and considerable gains accumulated in the early stage. From March 4 to 8, at the style level, Hang Seng High Dividend, China\\'s central enterprises and small-cap factors all recorded positive returns, and Hang Seng Technology\\'s correction reached a significant 2.94%; in terms of industry, the upstream cycle performed well, with the raw materials and energy sectors respectively. rose 8.98% and 5.40%, with the healthcare and consumer discretionary industries leading the decline, falling 3.33% and 3.60% respectively; 2) It is expected that after the transaction is completed, the market will focus on the policy tone of leaving nothing behind, clearing risks and industry Upgrade two directions to observe policy implementation. The government work report sets the annual GDP growth target of 5% and the deficit rate of 3%. Starting from this year, it plans to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds for several consecutive years. This year, it will first issue 1 trillion yuan. The policy support is relatively moderate and has not exceeded market expectation. In terms of follow-up attention, on the one hand, relief measures for real estate and local governments are still of concern to the market. If local risks in related fields are effectively contained, the economy is expected to get back on track and reverse the low, volatile or weak trend of PMI and corporate profits. On the other hand, \"industrial upgrading\" and \"development support\" carried out under the theme of new productivity will be the two main lines of investment in 2024. The digital economy and technological manufacturing are still booming, and we are waiting for the implementation of subsequent industry-specific policies to provide the market with more opportunities. Multiple clues; 3) In terms of allocation, in the context of the end of policy expectations and the pressure on Hong Kong dollar depreciation that has not yet eased, it is recommended to still focus on volatility strategies. Sectors such as utilities, energy, finance, and telecommunications with higher dividend rates in the short term can provide considerable relative returns in this environment even if market volatility increases in the future; in the medium and long term, represented by semiconductors and the Internet The technology industry will remain the main focus of industrial transformation and is expected to benefit from government support and domestic substitution. U.S. stock market: 1) U.S. stocks rose first and then fell this week, with major indexes closing slightly lower. The launch of Claude3\\'s large model and Powell\\'s dovish signal boosted market sentiment, and then the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a two-year high of 3.9% in February and against the background of large early gains in U.S. stocks, the technology sector suffered a correction. From March 4 to 8, at the style level, small-cap indexes represented by Russell 2000 dominated, and value indexes such as S&P 500 pure value and Russell 3000 value dominated; at the industry level, utilities (+3.19%), raw materials (+1.58%), real estate (+1.46%) and other sectors were among the top gainers, while industries such as consumer discretionary (-2.59%), information technology (-1.08%), and communication services (-0.65%) led the market decline; 2) Marginal weakness in some February economic data triggered recession expectations, but technological innovation is expected to keep the U.S. economy resilient. In February, ADP employment numbers and service industry PMI were lower than expected. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, a new high in two years. The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield fell from 4.22% on March 4 to 4.09% on March 8, reflecting market recession expectations. rise. Although there are certain swings in employment data, it is generally believed that the U.S. economy will maintain resilience with the support of technological innovation. In the short term, the year-on-year change of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is 6 months ahead of the manufacturing PMI. With the rebound in global semiconductor sales and the technological advancement of AI leaders, the PMI index may stabilize and rebound; in the long term, U.S. labor productivity hit 2014. At the end of the year, although there was a rapid decline due to the impact of the epidemic between 2021 and 2022, the upward trend has continued from mid-2022 to the present, and the U.S. economy has rarely been in recession within the range of continuous rebound in labor productivity; 3) There may be a risk of technical correction in U.S. stocks in the short term. The current U.S. stock market is in a state of high dispersion and low correlation, indicating that excessive gains have accumulated in specific sectors. In addition, the market breadth index, VIX index, and U.S. stock active investment position index also point to the market or the risk of overheating; 4) At the allocation level, in Under the baseline assumption that the technological revolution is still in the verification period, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during the year, and the U.S. economy soft lands, three main lines of allocation are recommended. First, the iteration of large overseas models is accelerating, creating strong demand for technology hardware; second, interest-sensitive sectors are expected to benefit from the interest rate cut cycle, such as health care; third, despite some swings in short-term economic data, the U.S. economy remains resilient, with energy, Procyclical sectors such as raw materials have a certain configuration and price-performance range. Risk warning: overseas secondary inflationary pressure; risk of hard landing of the U.S. economy; complex international situation.', 'authorid': UUID('7654beb8-79ca-5a7e-acbf-3ae8a45aa9bd'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9212254732847214, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'P8B69RPFH6R8AI904CN3O15QFFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:47:20 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'P8B69RPFH6R8AI904CN3O15QFFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('37a1fc47-623f-58fa-92e0-96b7fa174825'), 'title': 'Macro report: Two clues to U.S. core inflation rebound', 'author': 'Song Xuetao', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elwQhviehbritOLgJlHMKb1k=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elwQhviehbritOLgJlHMKb1k=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626447058_1.pdf?1710251841000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626447058_1.pdf?1710251841000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro report: Two clues to U.S. core inflation rebound', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛', 'originalContent': '美国的通胀水平相较于本轮周期高点缓和明显。核心商品快速去通胀，但核心服务通胀依然极具粘性，三个月平均环比折年率亦有明显反弹的趋势。我们认为未来美国核心通胀或将进一步反弹。其背后有两条主要线索：线索1：去通胀进程本就极其有限的住房通胀，将随着房价的反弹带来新的通胀压力最新数据中，业主等权租金远高于主要居所租金。随着房价持续反弹，OER的高增或将缓慢向非主要居所租金传导，进一步推高住房租金分项。23年6月见底反弹的美国房价指向24年6-7月的住房通胀反弹，将对核心通胀带来新的压力。线索2：火热的低技能服务业与难弥合的劳动力供需缺口推动超级核心通胀反弹难以弥合的低技能服务业供需缺口阻碍了去���胀进程，这也使得其薪资增速难以大幅缓和，增加超级核心通胀压力。当前美国劳动力整体供需缺口为270万人左右，仍远高于2019年110万人的水平，薪资增速均难以实质性跌破4%。美国劳动力供给修复遇到瓶颈，供给偏紧的局面或将延续，托底薪资增速，间接支撑核心服务通胀反弹。风险提示：美国抵押贷款风险暴露导致房价大幅下跌，美联储维持高利率时间高于预期，美国海外劳动力供给超预期。', 'content': 'The inflation level in the United States has eased significantly compared with the high point of this cycle. Core goods de-inflated rapidly, but core service inflation remained extremely sticky, and the three-month average month-on-month annualized rate also showed a clear rebound trend. We believe that U.S. core inflation may rebound further in the future. There are two main clues behind this: Clue 1: Housing inflation, which has an extremely limited de-inflation process, will bring new inflationary pressure as housing prices rebound. According to the latest data, the equal-rights rent for owners is much higher than the rent for primary residence. As housing prices continue to rebound, the high growth in OER may be slowly transmitted to non-primary residence rents, further pushing up the housing rental component. U.S. housing prices, which bottomed out in June 2023, point to a rebound in housing inflation from June to July 2024, which will put new pressure on core inflation. Clue 2: The hot low-skilled service industry and the difficult-to-bridge labor supply and demand gap drive the super core inflation rebound. The difficult-to-bridge supply and demand gap in the low-skilled service industry hinders the de-inflation process, which also makes it difficult for its wage growth to significantly ease, increasing the super core Inflationary pressures. The current overall supply-demand gap for the U.S. labor force is about 2.7 million people, which is still much higher than the level of 1.1 million people in 2019, and it is difficult for wage growth to fall below 4% in substance. The restoration of labor supply in the United States has encountered a bottleneck, and the tight supply situation may continue, which will support wage growth and indirectly support the rebound in core service inflation. Risk warning: U.S. mortgage risk exposure has led to a sharp decline in housing prices, the Federal Reserve has maintained high interest rates for longer than expected, and the U.S. overseas labor supply has exceeded expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('e546a080-7eae-5a16-8b31-ee315393fe93'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6142538338899612, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'S896PAUPC4ENF83HA2PR1OQ3AFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:47:22 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'S896PAUPC4ENF83HA2PR1OQ3AFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e79b55d4-fb7d-5352-9bdb-ab77f80ae36d'), 'title': 'Comments on price data in February 2024: The reversal of the \"Spring Festival in the wrong month\" effect drove the CPI to become positive year-on-year in February, and the price level will still run at a low level in the short term', 'author': 'Feng Lin', 'orgName': '东方金诚', 'orgCode': '80117870', 'orgSName': '东方金诚', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6ely2JzUmSiQ8k3qDdZZKQ20Q=', 'researcher': '冯琳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000282735'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6ely2JzUmSiQ8k3qDdZZKQ20Q=', 'site': 'Oriental Jincheng', 'originalSite': '东方金诚', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626446950_1.pdf?1710255358000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626446950_1.pdf?1710255358000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on price data in February 2024: The reversal of the \"Spring Festival in the wrong month\" effect drove the CPI to become positive year-on-year in February, and the price level will still run at a low level in the short term', 'originalAuthor': '冯琳', 'originalContent': '事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2024年2月，CPI同比为0.7%，1月为-0.8%；PPI同比为-2.7%，1月为-2.5%。基本观点：2月CPI同比转正，结束了此前连续四个月的同比负增长，这主要源于“春节错月”效应反转，食品和旅游出行服务价格大涨带动整体物价水平显著走高；从环比来看，2月物价增长动能仍然较为温和。预计3月CPI同比涨幅将会回落，未来一段时间仍将低位运行，其中一个原因是楼市低迷对居民消费心理有一定负面影响。PPI方面，2月国际原油价格上行，但因国内商品整体价格偏弱调整，当月PPI环比仍维持跌势。���时，由于上年同期基数走势相对稳定，当月PPI同比降幅有所扩大。展望未来，节后食品价格正在较快回落，服务消费也将进入淡季。由此，尽管上年同期价格基数下行，但今年3月CPI同比涨幅仍将有所回落，预计将在0.2%左右。综合考虑各类影响物价走势的因素，短期内CPI同比涨幅明显上移的可能性不大，低通胀现象仍需高度重视。3月国际油价波动中枢大概率将高于2月，加之春节假期对需求端的扰动退去，PPI环比表现有望改善。不过，由于需求预期尚未明显好转，预计3月PPI环比涨跌幅将仅在0.0%附近，加之上年同期基数走势稳定，同比降幅将维持在-2.7%。进入二季度以后，伴随稳增长政策效果逐步显现，加之上年同期价格基数下沉，预计4月起PPI同比降幅将重回收窄过程，并有望在年中前后转为正增长。', 'content': 'Event: According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in February 2024, the CPI was 0.7% year-on-year and -0.8% in January; the PPI was -2.7% year-on-year and -2.5% in January. Basic point of view: CPI turned positive year-on-year in February, ending the previous four consecutive months of negative year-on-year growth. This was mainly due to the reversal of the \"Spring Festival wrong month\" effect, and the sharp increase in food and travel service prices drove the overall price level to rise significantly; from On a month-on-month basis, price growth momentum in February was still relatively moderate. It is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI in March will fall back and will remain low for some time to come. One of the reasons is that the downturn in the property market has a certain negative impact on residents\\' consumption psychology. In terms of PPI, international crude oil prices rose in February, but due to weak adjustments in overall domestic commodity prices, PPI still maintained a month-on-month decline that month. At the same time, due to the relatively stable base trend in the same period last year, the year-on-year decline in PPI in that month expanded. Looking to the future, food prices are falling rapidly after the holidays, and service consumption will also enter the off-season. As a result, despite the downward price base in the same period last year, the year-on-year CPI increase in March this year will still fall back, and is expected to be around 0.2%. Taking into account various factors that affect price trends, it is unlikely that the year-on-year increase in CPI will move up significantly in the short term, and the phenomenon of low inflation still requires great attention. There is a high probability that the international oil price fluctuation center in March will be higher than that in February. In addition, the disruption to the demand side caused by the Spring Festival holiday has receded, and the month-on-month performance of PPI is expected to improve. However, as demand expectations have not improved significantly, the month-on-month increase or decrease of PPI in March is expected to be only around 0.0%. Coupled with the stable base trend in the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease will remain at -2.7%. After entering the second quarter, as the effects of stabilizing growth policies gradually emerge, and the price base sinks in the same period last year, it is expected that the year-on-year decline in PPI will return to a narrow process starting in April, and is expected to turn to positive growth around the middle of the year.', 'authorid': UUID('c7e74489-0cfa-5b6c-bf86-df5a0ef5adbc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7084092348814011, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'K7RV4921SUQ7MSU24CCNRPQK93VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:47:25 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'K7RV4921SUQ7MSU24CCNRPQK93VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ac19f526-9d90-5b31-b1a9-af910fbaa3af'), 'title': \"Macro Weekly Report: China's exports have a better-than-expected start, and U.S. non-farm employment grows moderately\", 'author': 'Li Ting, Huang Lei, Gao Hui, Wang Gongjian', 'orgName': '铜冠金源期货', 'orgCode': '80055522', 'orgSName': '铜冠金源期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el6viRt0PFQFKE6OlaErXoYU=', 'researcher': '李婷,黄蕾,高慧,王工建', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000207840', '11000210457', '11000428834', '11000369911'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el6viRt0PFQFKE6OlaErXoYU=', 'site': 'Tongguan Jinyuan Futures', 'originalSite': '铜冠金源期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626446874_1.pdf?1710504320000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626446874_1.pdf?1710504320000.pdf', 'originalTitle': \"Macro Weekly Report: China's exports have a better-than-expected start, and U.S. non-farm employment grows moderately\", 'originalAuthor': '李婷,黄蕾,高慧,王工建', 'originalContent': '核心观点海外方面，美国2月非农就业新增27.5万人，超出市场预期，前两月累计下修16.7万人，商品部门边际降温，服务就业依旧有韧劲，工资通胀压力缓解，失业率意外上行至3.9%，整体而言目前就业市场温和增速的趋势未变。周五鲍威尔释放鸽派信号，强调通胀已出现明显进展，且长线通胀预期锚定良好，重申今年降息可能是适当的。随后美债收益率回落，美元指数下行，金价连续创新高，目前市场定价6月首次降息，全年降4次。欧央行利率决议连续4次“按兵不动”，同步下调通胀、经济增长预期。本周关注美国2月CPI、零售数据。国内方面，1-2月进出口数据均高于市场预期，主要有3点原因①全球制造业景气回升，半导体产业链复苏，海外已逐渐由去库转向补库，需求拉动出口超预期；②春节错位以及2023年初疫情导致的低基数，助推了同比增速的改善；③1-2月外贸企业积极抢订单、拓市场。2月物价数据在春节错位下呈分化走势，CPI同比超预期且回正，PPI同比走弱，后续由于低基数效应预计将呈弱修复趋势。两会闭幕，总体而言未超市场预期，全年GDP目标5%左右，赤字率3%。本周关注国内金融数据。风险因素：政策效果不及预期，地产修复不及预期，欧美降息预期反复，地缘政治冲突加剧。', 'content': 'Core Views Overseas, the United States added 275,000 non-farm jobs in February, exceeding market expectations. The cumulative number of jobs in the first two months was revised down to 167,000. The commodity sector has cooled down at the margin, service employment remains resilient, wage inflation pressures have eased, and the unemployment rate is unexpected. It rose to 3.9%. Overall, the current trend of moderate growth in the job market has not changed. Powell issued a dovish signal on Friday, emphasizing that inflation has shown significant progress and long-term inflation expectations are well anchored, and reiterated that an interest rate cut this year may be appropriate. Subsequently, U.S. bond yields fell back, the U.S. dollar index fell, and the price of gold continued to reach new highs. The market is currently pricing in an interest rate cut for the first time in June, and 4 times throughout the year. The European Central Bank\\'s interest rate decision has been \"on hold\" for the fourth time in a row, simultaneously lowering inflation and economic growth expectations. This week, focus on the US February CPI and retail sales data. Domestically, the import and export data from January to February were higher than market expectations. There are three main reasons: ① The global manufacturing boom has rebounded, the semiconductor industry chain has recovered, overseas has gradually shifted from destocking to replenishing, and demand has driven exports beyond expectations; ② The misalignment of the Spring Festival and the low base caused by the epidemic in early 2023 have contributed to the improvement in year-on-year growth; ③ From January to February, foreign trade companies actively grabbed orders and expanded the market. Price data in February showed a divergent trend due to the misalignment of the Spring Festival. CPI exceeded expectations and returned to positive year-on-year, while PPI weakened year-on-year. It is expected to show a weak recovery trend due to the low base effect in the future. The conclusion of the two sessions generally did not exceed market expectations, with the full-year GDP target of around 5% and a deficit rate of 3%. Focus on domestic financial data this week. Risk factors: policy effects are not as good as expected, real estate recovery is not as good as expected, expectations of interest rate cuts in Europe and the United States are repeated, and geopolitical conflicts intensify.', 'authorid': UUID('031c3f63-fc61-5961-a12a-0ada8999feda'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9216106422245502, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'V53P4PT3ATEMTOBFM07AK976KNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:47:27 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'V53P4PT3ATEMTOBFM07AK976KNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0cffaf67-7b74-502e-a542-a9b82d4f3e30'), 'title': 'February U.S. non-farm payrolls report', 'author': 'Macro Finance Team', 'orgName': '国投安信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066669', 'orgSName': '国投安信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el108U/3BxFl4+fdKosGBzew=', 'researcher': '宏观金融团队', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000442645'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el108U/3BxFl4+fdKosGBzew=', 'site': 'SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投安信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626444038_1.pdf?1710252847000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626444038_1.pdf?1710252847000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'February U.S. non-farm payrolls report', 'originalAuthor': '宏观金融团队', 'originalContent': '美国2024年2月新增非农就业27.5万人，预期20万人，前值下修至22.9万人；失业率意外上行0.2pct至3.9%，劳动参与率维持62.5%。2月小时工资同比增速较前值回落0.1pct至4.3%，环比增速回落0.4pct至0.1%。2月份就业增长主要集中在服务业，具体来看，所有行业中只有制造业就业回落，服务业就业人数增长仍未最为显著的行业，2月达20.4万人，为本月最高，教育和保健服务、休闲和酒店业的新增就业增长是该类就业上升的主要因素。整体来看，尽管2月新增非农就业数据高于前值，但前值大幅下修、超预期上行的失业率与下滑的薪资同比增速仍显示美国劳动力市场有所降温。在数据公布后，市场对降息时点的预期基本保持稳定，预期降息最早可能出现在今年的6月，概率为60.5%，年内有4次降息空间。', 'content': \"The United States added 275,000 non-farm jobs in February 2024, compared with expectations of 200,000, and the previous value was revised down to 229,000; the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose by 0.2pc to 3.9%, and the labor participation rate remained at 62.5%. The year-on-year growth rate of hourly wages in February fell by 0.1pct to 4.3% from the previous value, and the month-on-month growth rate dropped by 0.4pct to 0.1%. Employment growth in February was mainly concentrated in the service industry. Specifically, among all industries, only manufacturing employment fell. The growth in employment in the service industry was still not the most significant. It reached 204,000 in February, the highest this month. Education and New job growth in the health services, leisure and hospitality industries was a major factor in the rise in employment. Overall, although the new non-farm employment data in February was higher than the previous value, the sharp downward revision of the previous value, the higher-than-expected unemployment rate, and the declining year-on-year wage growth still indicate that the U.S. labor market has cooled. After the data was released, the market's expectations for the timing of interest rate cuts have basically remained stable. It is expected that an interest rate cut may occur as early as June this year, with a probability of 60.5%, and there is room for four interest rate cuts during the year.\", 'authorid': UUID('d4813736-c001-5f5c-bd84-39fcb960b66d'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9521210640668869, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'EK6H8ONL3GUHREHRDQDDV8R8IVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:47:29 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'EK6H8ONL3GUHREHRDQDDV8R8IVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0b8a3268-301a-5be3-9631-30c1b2de9867'), 'title': 'February China Price Data Express', 'author': 'Jin Shunrouzi', 'orgName': '国投安信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066669', 'orgSName': '国投安信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elzWI/rn2eB8eQ0hLkJlYEvo=', 'researcher': '靳顺柔子', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245957'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elzWI/rn2eB8eQ0hLkJlYEvo=', 'site': 'SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投安信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626444033_1.pdf?1710242241000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626444033_1.pdf?1710242241000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'February China Price Data Express', 'originalAuthor': '靳顺柔子', 'originalContent': '中国2月CPI同比上涨0.7%，好于预期上涨0.4%，为去年8月以来首次转正，前值下降0.8%：环比涨幅比上月扩大0.7个百分点至1%。PPI同比下降2.7%，不及预期下降2.5%，前值降2.5%：环比下降0.2%，降幅与上月持平。CPI-PPI剪刀差扩大1.7个百分点至3.4%。CPI方面，春节错位叠加食品、服务类消费在假期的刺激效应下价格边际走高，CPI同比回升超预期。食品方面，鲜菜、猪肉、水产品和鲜果价格分别环比上涨12.7%、7.2%、6.2%和4.3%；同比来看，猪价上涨0.2%，是连续下降9个月后的首次转涨，鲜菜和水产品价格分别由上月下降12.7%和3.4%转为上涨2.9%和4.1%。非食品方面，旅游和交通类服务价格涨幅较大，整体服务价格涨幅超出季节性。PPI方面，2月下游处于需求淡季，市场预期也没有明显变化，工业品价格缺少明显驱动，由于市场对房地产预期较弱，春节后复工复产进度也偏慢，整体工业品价格有所回落。整体来看，春节假期效应推动叠加春节错月带来的低基数，中国2月CPI同比由负转正，创下11个月最大涨幅：但由于春节前后处于传统工业生产的淡季，PPI同比降幅则略有扩大。当前国内需求预期依然偏弱，通胀修复尚需时日，后续仍看需求侧政策发力效果。', 'content': \"China's CPI rose 0.7% year-on-year in February, which was better than expected. It rose 0.4%, turning positive for the first time since August last year. The previous value fell 0.8%: the month-on-month increase expanded 0.7 percentage points from the previous month to 1%. PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year, which was less than expected to fall by 2.5%. The previous value fell by 2.5%: it fell by 0.2% month-on-month, and the decline was the same as last month. The CPI-PPI scissor gap widened by 1.7 percentage points to 3.4%. In terms of CPI, the Spring Festival misalignment combined with the marginal increase in prices of food and service consumption under the stimulating effect of the holiday, and the year-on-year CPI rebound exceeded expectations. In terms of food, the prices of fresh vegetables, pork, aquatic products and fresh fruits increased by 12.7%, 7.2%, 6.2% and 4.3% respectively month-on-month; year-on-year, the price of pigs increased by 0.2%, which was the first increase after nine consecutive months of decline. The prices of fresh vegetables and aquatic products increased by 2.9% and 4.1% respectively from a decrease of 12.7% and 3.4% in the previous month. In terms of non-food, the prices of tourism and transportation services increased significantly, and the overall service price increase exceeded the seasonal increase. In terms of PPI, downstream demand was in the off-season in February, and there was no significant change in market expectations. Industrial product prices lacked obvious drivers. Due to weak market expectations for real estate, the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival was also slow, and overall industrial product prices fell. Overall, due to the Spring Festival holiday effect and the low base caused by the wrong month of the Spring Festival, China's CPI in February turned from negative to positive year-on-year, setting the largest increase in 11 months: However, due to the off-season for traditional industrial production around the Spring Festival, the year-on-year decline in PPI was slightly smaller. There is expansion. At present, domestic demand is still expected to be weak, and it will take time for inflation to recover. The follow-up still depends on the effect of demand-side policies.\", 'authorid': UUID('40e65a3c-99e1-55f2-857c-bc9dfcf8c17c'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7536743730306625, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'SMV552K6476V8OCSAC71UFC5QNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:47:32 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'SMV552K6476V8OCSAC71UFC5QNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('14edbe8e-8d01-5932-ad71-56819c0b2578'), 'title': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm payroll data in February: U.S. employment data is mixed', 'author': 'Yan Xiang, Zhu Bin, Zhang Mengfei', 'orgName': '华福证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000065', 'orgSName': '华福证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elwGQstdnLrJ+4RqyNq5yBn8=', 'researcher': '燕翔,朱斌,章孟菲', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000223033', '11000235035', '11000449858'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elwGQstdnLrJ+4RqyNq5yBn8=', 'site': 'Huafu Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华福证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626420341_1.pdf?1710233916000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626420341_1.pdf?1710233916000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm payroll data in February: U.S. employment data is mixed', 'originalAuthor': '燕翔,朱斌,章孟菲', 'originalContent': '事件：3月8日，美国劳工局（BLS）公布了2月非农数据。2月新增非农就业人数为27.5万人，高于市场预期的20万人，前值由35.3万人下修至22.9万人。投资要点：从分项数据来看，商品生产就业人数新增1.9万人。其中，建筑业就业人数新增2.3万人为最大贡献项，连续11个月新增就业为正，采矿业新增就业与前值持平，制造业下降0.4万人。服务业新增就���人数为20.4万人，为2023年6月以来最大增加值。其中对利率不敏感的教育和保健服务业（+8.5万人）依然贡献了最大增长，休闲和酒店业（+5.8万人）为2023年6月以来最大新增值，运输仓储业（+2.0万人），零售业（+1.9万），专业和商业服务（+0.9万）等行业均为正增长。同时，美国12月失业率为3.9%，高于预期和前值3.7%，为2022年1月来新高。1月劳动力短缺率（就业率+广义职位空缺率-劳动力参与率）较上月有所回升，但整体仍然呈下降趋势，显示加息对劳动力供需的缺口继续改善，供需错位现象持续缓解。从平均时薪来看，2月美国私营部门平均小时工资为34.57美元，略高于前值34.52美元，2月平均时薪环比上升0.14%，为2022年12月以来新低，其中，商品生产部门平均时薪环比增速为0.11%，低于前值的0.43%。服务业部门平均时薪环比增速为0.15%，低于前值0.56%。总体来看，2月美国就业数据喜忧参半，一方面非农新增就业持续强劲，另一方面失业率升至2022年1月以来的最高位。非农数据公布后，芝商所Fed Watch工具显示美联储6月降息的概率从此前的56.8%上升至57.4%。除了本次公布偏高的失业率外，2月密歇根消费者信心指数、ISM制造业PMI等经济指标都不及预期，较前值都有所下降，显示美国经济增长势头正在减弱。此前鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会听证会表示充分意识到过晚降息的风险，距离对降息有信心不是很远，预计将出现由商业地产引发的（中小）银行倒闭。我们认为在劳动力市场供需错位现象持续缓解、高利率环境可能给经济带来潜在风险的情况下，美联储可能会在6月开始预防式降息，后续仍需关注2月的通胀数据。风险提示：美联储加息超预期，地缘政治影响超预期。', 'content': 'Event: On March 8, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released February non-agricultural data. The number of new non-farm jobs in February was 275,000, higher than market expectations of 200,000. The previous value was revised down from 353,000 to 229,000. Investment points: Judging from the breakdown of data, the number of jobs in commodity production increased by 19,000. Among them, the largest contributor was the increase of 23,000 jobs in the construction industry, which was positive for 11 consecutive months. The number of new jobs in the mining industry was the same as the previous value, and the manufacturing industry dropped by 4,000. The number of new jobs in the service industry was 204,000, the largest value added since June 2023. Among them, the education and health services industry (+85,000), which is not sensitive to interest rates, still contributed the largest growth, the leisure and hotel industry (+58,000) has the largest new value since June 2023, and the transportation and warehousing industry (+20,000) people), retail (+19,000), professional and business services (+09,000) and other industries all showed positive growth. At the same time, the U.S. unemployment rate was 3.9% in December, higher than expected and the previous value of 3.7%, a new high since January 2022. The labor shortage rate (employment rate + broad job vacancy rate - labor force participation rate) in January rebounded from the previous month, but the overall trend is still downward, indicating that the gap between labor supply and demand caused by interest rate hikes continues to improve, and the mismatch between supply and demand continues to ease. In terms of average hourly wages, the average hourly wage in the U.S. private sector in February was US$34.57, slightly higher than the previous value of US$34.52. The average hourly wage in February increased by 0.14% month-on-month, a new low since December 2022. Among them, the commodity production sector The average hourly wage growth rate was 0.11% month-on-month, lower than the previous value of 0.43%. The average hourly wage growth in the service sector was 0.15% month-on-month, lower than the previous value of 0.56%. Overall, U.S. employment data in February were mixed. On the one hand, new non-agricultural employment continued to be strong, and on the other hand, the unemployment rate rose to the highest level since January 2022. After the non-agricultural data was released, the CME Group Fed Watch tool showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June rose to 57.4% from the previous 56.8%. In addition to the relatively high unemployment rate announced this time, economic indicators such as the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and the ISM Manufacturing PMI in February were lower than expected and fell from the previous values, indicating that the momentum of U.S. economic growth is weakening. Previously, Powell stated at the Senate Banking Committee hearing that he is fully aware of the risks of cutting interest rates too late, and is not far away from having confidence in interest rate cuts. It is expected that there will be (small and medium-sized) bank failures caused by commercial real estate. We believe that as the mismatch between supply and demand in the labor market continues to ease and the high interest rate environment may bring potential risks to the economy, the Federal Reserve may begin a precautionary interest rate cut in June. We will still need to pay attention to the inflation data in February. Risk warning: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates more than expected, and the impact of geopolitics exceeded expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('8ca1f13c-5904-515d-b780-96d04864f029'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7998790815472603, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '7HR2CUDJ16EPJNPAN6CJOHLVIFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:47:34 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '7HR2CUDJ16EPJNPAN6CJOHLVIFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('be26dfbd-66d9-5d6d-9f9c-0669fa8af040'), 'title': 'Policy Monthly Report No. 7: What are the new developments in stabilizing growth?', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Zhang Yunjie', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elwbv1092DcccbPaELqW0gA4=', 'researcher': '赵伟,张云杰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000369443'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elwbv1092DcccbPaELqW0gA4=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626416449_1.pdf?1710231477000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626416449_1.pdf?1710231477000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Policy Monthly Report No. 7: What are the new developments in stabilizing growth?', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,张云杰', 'originalContent': '地方重大项目是各省层层筛选、政策重点支持的优质项目，在拉动地方经济增长、促进产业转型等方面具有重要意义，同时，重大项目具有政府重视度高、完成情况好、建设周期长等特点，是观察稳增长落地的重要参考。以浙江为例，其重大项目建设周期均在4年左右；且2023年广东、四川、福建等地重大项目完成进度超100%。截至2月底，全国共有18省市公布2024年重大项目年度投资规划、达7.9万亿元。广东、山东、浙江2024年重大项目年度投资计划规模均达万亿元，海南、内蒙古重大项目年度投资计划增速较高，分别为23%、16%。可比口径下，12省市2024年重大项目年度投资增速为4%、较2020、2023年两位数增速回落，高于2021-2022年3%的增速。从项目施工类型来看，可比口径下，续建、新建项目数量比例稳定在7/3，多地储备项目占实施类项目数量比超10%。可比口径下，地方重大项目续建、新建比例较为稳定，2024年占比分别为70.3%、29.7%，与2023年基本持平。从项目储备情况看，天津储备项目数量较多、占实施类项目比例近四分之一，福建、湖北、江苏储备项目占比超10%。二问：本轮稳增长，较过往有何不同？重心向产业倾斜、经济大省扛大梁、中央财政支持加码本轮稳增长重心进一步向产业发展倾斜。2024年地方对产业发展重视度进一步提升，部分重点化债省市将现代化产业体系建设作为稳增长的“新驱动”；四川、山东、江苏等2024年重大项目中，产业类项目占比升至65.7%、较2023年提升2.5个百分点；1-2月地方新增专项债亦有四成投向市政产业园领域、较2023年全年提升近10个百分点。地域间稳增长重心有所分化，部分经济大省重大项目投资规模维持较高水平，新增地方债额度更向经济大省倾斜。2024年初部分经济大省重大项目开工时间提前，且浙江、广东、江苏等经济大省重大项目年度投资维持较高规模。同时，新增专项债额度更向经济大省倾斜，13个经济大省2024年专项债提前批额度占比85%、高于2023年全年的64%。中央财政持续加码，超长期特别国债、中央预算对民间投资及耐用品消费以旧换新等支持政策持续推出。2024年起，超长期特别国债拟连续几年发行，2024年先发行一万亿元；同时，据国家发改委，中央预算内投资对民间投资项目支持力度可达60%，中央财经委员会第四次会议也提出“对消费品以旧换新，要坚持中央财政和地方政府联动”等。三问：稳增长落地，后续如何跟踪？围绕资金、项目、实物工作量三方面，宏微观指标相结合稳增长“三步走”，从资金加码至项目部署再到实物工作量落地，后续对稳���长落地进度的跟踪将围绕三方面开展。稳增长资金端，预算内万亿国债资金预算下达完毕、万亿超长期特别国债待发行，预算外PSL新增5000亿元等。2024年前两月，地方新增专项债发行仅4033亿元，或缘于新增专项债“提前批”额度下达较晚、万亿国债资金及项目先落地等因素。预算外，“准财政”已然加码，2023年12月和2024年1月PSL余额共新增5000亿元。稳增长项目端，微观层面代表性基建上市公司订单明显增长，宏观层面地方重大项目规划部分落地。微观层面，代表性基建央企新签订单额明显增长；水利、电力能源等细分领域订单变化或对当前基建投资重心转变具有一定指引意义。宏观层面，可比口径下地方重大项目年度投资增速为4%、较2023年高增速回落，但高于2021-2022年3%的增速。形成实物工作量方面，反映基建落地的高频指标春节后表现不及过往同期，或部分缘于极端天气干扰、复工复产推迟等因素。稳增长落地，月度数据可关注各地重大项目开工规模等，2024年1月各地重大项目开工投资额5.4万亿元，为2020年以来同期次高；但春节后石油沥青开工率不及过往，或部分缘于节后极端天气等因素干扰复工节奏。风险提示:经济复苏不及预期，政策落地效果不及预期。', 'content': 'Major local projects are high-quality projects that are screened at all levels by each province and supported by policies. They are of great significance in stimulating local economic growth and promoting industrial transformation. At the same time, major projects have the characteristics of high government attention, good completion status, and long construction cycle. , is an important reference for observing the implementation of stable growth. Taking Zhejiang as an example, the construction cycle of its major projects is about 4 years; and in 2023, the completion progress of major projects in Guangdong, Sichuan, Fujian and other places will exceed 100%. As of the end of February, 18 provinces and cities across the country had announced annual investment plans for major projects in 2024, amounting to 7.9 trillion yuan. The annual investment plans for major projects in Guangdong, Shandong, and Zhejiang in 2024 all reach one trillion yuan. The annual investment plans for major projects in Hainan and Inner Mongolia have higher growth rates, 23% and 16% respectively. On a comparable basis, the annual investment growth rate of major projects in 12 provinces and cities in 2024 is 4%, which is lower than the double-digit growth rate in 2020 and 2023, and higher than the 3% growth rate in 2021-2022. From the perspective of project construction types, on a comparable basis, the proportion of continued and new projects is stable at 7/3, and reserve projects in multiple places account for more than 10% of the number of implementation projects. On a comparable basis, the proportion of continued construction and new construction of major local projects is relatively stable, accounting for 70.3% and 29.7% respectively in 2024, basically the same as in 2023. Judging from the project reserve situation, Tianjin has a large number of reserve projects, accounting for nearly a quarter of the implementation projects, and Fujian, Hubei, and Jiangsu reserve projects account for more than 10%. Second question: How is this round of stable growth different from the past? The focus is tilted towards industry, with major economic provinces taking the lead, and the central government’s financial support has increased. This round of stabilizing growth has further tilted the focus towards industrial development. In 2024, local governments will pay more attention to industrial development, and some key debt-prone provinces and cities will regard the construction of modern industrial systems as a \"new driver\" for stable growth; among major projects in Sichuan, Shandong, and Jiangsu in 2024, the proportion of industrial projects will rise to 65.7%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from 2023; 40% of new local special bonds from January to February were invested in municipal industrial parks, an increase of nearly 10 percentage points from 2023. The focus of stabilizing growth has differentiated among regions. The scale of investment in major projects in some economically large provinces has remained at a relatively high level, and the amount of new local debt has been tilted towards the economically large provinces. At the beginning of 2024, the start date of major projects in some major economic provinces has been advanced, and the annual investment in major projects in major economic provinces such as Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Jiangsu has maintained a relatively high scale. At the same time, the new special bond quotas are more tilted towards economically prosperous provinces. The 13 economically prosperous provinces account for 85% of the special debt quotas approved in advance in 2024, which is higher than the 64% in 2023. The central government continues to increase funding, and continues to roll out support policies such as ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and the central budget for private investment and durable goods consumption trade-in. Starting from 2024, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are planned to be issued for several consecutive years, with one trillion yuan issued first in 2024. At the same time, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, the central budgetary investment can support 60% of private investment projects. The fourth report of the Central Financial and Economic Commission The meeting also proposed that \"when replacing old consumer goods with new ones, we must adhere to the linkage between the central finance and local governments.\" Third question: How to follow up on the implementation of stable growth? Focusing on the three aspects of funds, projects, and physical workload, macro and micro indicators are combined to stabilize growth in a \"three-step\" process, from increasing funds to project deployment and then to the implementation of physical workload. Subsequent tracking of the progress of stabilizing growth will be carried out around three aspects. . On the funding side for steady growth, the budget for trillions of government bonds within the budget has been released, trillions of super-long-term special government bonds are to be issued, and extra-budgetary PSL has increased by 500 billion yuan, etc. In the first two months of 2024, the issuance of new local special bonds was only 403.3 billion yuan, which may be due to factors such as the late release of the \"advance approval\" quota for new special bonds, trillions of government bond funds and projects being implemented first. Outside of the budget, \"quasi-fiscal\" has been increased, and the PSL balance in December 2023 and January 2024 will increase by a total of 500 billion yuan. On the stable growth project side, orders from representative infrastructure listed companies at the micro level have increased significantly, and major local project plans at the macro level have been partially implemented. At the micro level, the number of new orders signed by representative central enterprises in infrastructure construction has increased significantly; changes in orders in subdivided fields such as water conservancy and power energy may have certain guiding significance for the current shift in the focus of infrastructure investment. At the macro level, the annual investment growth rate of local major projects on a comparable basis is 4%, which is lower than the high growth rate in 2023, but higher than the 3% growth rate in 2021-2022. In terms of physical workload, the performance of high-frequency indicators reflecting the implementation of infrastructure after the Spring Festival was not as good as in the same period in the past, which may be partly due to factors such as extreme weather disturbances and delays in resumption of work and production. Stable growth has been achieved, and monthly data can focus on the scale of major project start-ups in various regions. In January 2024, the investment in major projects in various regions was 5.4 trillion yuan, the second highest in the same period since 2020; however, the start-up rate of petroleum asphalt after the Spring Festival was not as good as in the past, or some This is due to factors such as extreme weather after the holidays that interfere with the pace of resumption of work. Risk warning: The economic recovery is not as good as expected, and the effect of policy implementation is not as good as expected.', 'authorid': UUID('ff469869-b6c6-5748-a897-a67668ded608'), 'sentimentScore': 0.18996292632073164, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'FDTHU6NSGI98R4BA1V4LF85F2BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:48:08 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'FDTHU6NSGI98R4BA1V4LF85F2BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('18ce7728-6fe0-56a1-9d6c-15d0beba8d0e'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly: Looking at incremental policies from thematic press conferences', 'author': 'Cheng Qiang', 'orgName': '德邦证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000217', 'orgSName': '德邦证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elw2Pq0I3zl6eAvmKR3XSrx4=', 'researcher': '程强', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000296632'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6elw2Pq0I3zl6eAvmKR3XSrx4=', 'site': 'Debon Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '德邦证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626416447_1.pdf?1710231334000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626416447_1.pdf?1710231334000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly: Looking at incremental policies from thematic press conferences', 'originalAuthor': '程强', 'originalContent': '经济主题记者会有哪些增量政策？1）在财政政策方面：今年积极的财政政策备受市场关注。财政政策3%的赤字率和4.06万亿的赤字规模的安排与我们《2024年地方两会观察与全国两会前瞻》中的展望基本一致。记者会重点投向领域的明确除了有助于经济结构的新旧动能转换，还能与准备研究推出的大规模设备更新政策打“组合拳”。此外，去年四季度增发的1万亿国债，由于发行时间靠后，因此有7000亿将在今年使用，贡献增量略超预期。同时，继续强调过紧日子要求，政府“三公”经费支出或将持续收紧。2）设备更新和消费品换新方面：根据发改委估算，设备更新的市场规模约为5万亿，耐用消费品更新换代的市场规模达万亿，按此规模测算，分别占到2023年全年GDP的4%和0.8%。3）资本市场方面：明确了资本市场的定位，强调要注重投融资平衡发展，在后续的建设上着力强调了三点：一是强调对投资者的保护，特别是中小投资者。二是强调提高上市公司质量。三是进一步完善基础制度。上一次大规模设备更新往事。我国上一轮鼓励消费品以旧换新要追溯到2008年12月国务院推广的“家电下乡”和2009年5月在“家电下乡”的基础上开展的汽车、家电“以旧换新”活动。主要是为了扩大国内需求，改善民生，拉动消费带动生产，促进经济平稳较快增长等。当前距2008年12月开始的“家电下乡”已有13余年，考虑到上一轮家电产品大部分已超使用年限存在安全隐患以及新一代家电产品的科技创新含量，启动新一轮消费品以旧换新非常必要，这有利于活跃国内消费经济循环，也有助于部分中游制造业的去库存和产能利用率提升。宏观数据跟踪。1）新能源去库存，价格战仍在延续。2月出现环比和同比剧烈下滑的重要原因是春节因素带来的节前消费时间差异，1月纯新能源车企的总体库存降到37万辆，其中新能源经销商渠道库存明显下降。2）今年3.8妇女节呈现出多元化的趋势，外出就餐、参加主题活动、逛街、看电影、看演唱会/livehouse等消费文娱活动更受欢迎。3）AI：全球AI产品全球总榜中，2月访问量涨跌分化。ChatGPT和NewBing访问量远超其他，全球APP增速榜中有国内的百度网盘和豆包上榜，其中豆包涨幅高达567%。4）出海短剧格局稳固，得益于较早布局海外，收入、下载量等数据与其他拉开断层式差距。投资建议：股市：随着两会日历效应和维稳需求的衰退，本轮快速的超跌反弹或将逐步走向阻力下的震荡行情，需要进一步检验后续的经济数据、宏观政策及市场预期。高赔率下，胜率能否有效提升是反转开启与否的关键，但目前并未见到宏观基本面在边际上的显著转暖，这意味着分子端仍较疲弱，而在增量资金入场料将逐步放缓的情形下，投资者预期与市场风险偏好可能仍将是扰动市场的关键因素。后市对本轮反弹的博弈或将逐步让位于基本面逻辑和产业逻辑等。债市：围绕长端下行空间的博弈激化，长端利率波动可能阶段性放大。从债券借贷情况来看，年后到3月8日，10Y230026借贷集中度由38.9%上升48.3%，30Y230023借贷集中度由16.2%上升至32.9%，在长端利率不断创历史新低的情况下，继续做多面临的压力也不断增大，多空分歧依然相当大，需警惕短期内长端利率波动放大的风险，或可适当缩短久期，静待高波动阶段过去。商品：当前商品价格高位震荡，海外降息预期增强以及购金需求增长之下，金价有望继续上行。而在海外宏观利好共振和国内需求有望恢复向好的综合影响下，预计大宗商品整体延续持稳上行的走势。同时，红海局势依旧紧张，地缘政治风险仍存或进一步形成支撑。风险提示：政策支持力度不及预期；政策落地不及预期；经济复苏进程不及预期', 'content': 'What incremental policies will there be for economic journalists? 1) In terms of fiscal policy: This year’s proactive fiscal policy has attracted market attention. The fiscal policy\\'s 3% deficit rate and 4.06 trillion deficit scale arrangement are basically consistent with the outlook in our \"2024 Local Two Sessions Observation and National Two Sessions Forecast\". The clarification of the key investment areas at the press conference will not only help the transformation of the economic structure into new and old driving forces, but can also be combined with the large-scale equipment renewal policy that is being studied and launched. In addition, of the 1 trillion additional treasury bonds issued in the fourth quarter of last year, 700 billion will be used this year due to the later issuance time, and the incremental contribution slightly exceeds expectations. At the same time, the government continues to emphasize the need to live a tight life, and the government\\'s \"three public services\" expenditures may continue to be tightened. 2) Equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement: According to estimates by the National Development and Reform Commission, the market size of equipment renewal is about 5 trillion, and the market size of durable consumer goods replacement is trillions. Calculated based on this scale, they will account for 10% of the annual GDP in 2023. 4% and 0.8%. 3) Capital market: It clarified the positioning of the capital market, emphasized the need to pay attention to the balanced development of investment and financing, and emphasized three points in subsequent construction: First, it emphasized the protection of investors, especially small and medium-sized investors. The second is to emphasize improving the quality of listed companies. The third is to further improve the basic system. The last large-scale device update is a thing of the past. The last round of encouraging trade-in of consumer goods in my country can be traced back to the “Home Appliances to the Rural Areas” campaign promoted by the State Council in December 2008 and the “Old-for-New” campaign for automobiles and home appliances carried out on the basis of the “Home Appliances to the Rural Areas” program in May 2009. The main purpose is to expand domestic demand, improve people\\'s livelihood, stimulate consumption to drive production, and promote stable and rapid economic growth. It has been more than 13 years since the \"Home Appliances to the Countryside\" program started in December 2008. Considering that most of the previous round of home appliances have exceeded their useful life and have safety hazards, as well as the technological innovation content of the new generation of home appliances, a new round of consumer goods trade-in has been launched. It is very necessary, which is conducive to activating the domestic consumption economic cycle, and will also help destocking and increasing capacity utilization in some midstream manufacturing industries. Macro data tracking. 1) New energy is being destocked and the price war is still continuing. The important reason for the sharp month-on-month and year-on-year declines in February was the difference in pre-holiday consumption time caused by the Spring Festival. In January, the overall inventory of pure new energy vehicle companies dropped to 370,000 vehicles, of which the inventory in new energy dealer channels dropped significantly. 2) This year’s March 8th Women’s Day shows a diversified trend. Consumer entertainment activities such as dining out, participating in theme activities, shopping, watching movies, and attending concerts/livehouses are more popular. 3) AI: In the global list of global AI products, the number of visits in February varied. ChatGPT and NewBing have far more visits than others. Domestic Baidu Netdisk and Doubao are on the global APP growth list, with Doubao increasing by as much as 567%. 4) The pattern of overseas short dramas is stable. Thanks to its early overseas deployment, data such as revenue and downloads have widened the gap with others. Investment advice: Stock market: With the calendar effect of the two sessions and the decline in demand for stability, this round of rapid oversold rebound may gradually move towards a volatile market under resistance. Further testing of subsequent economic data, macro policies and market expectations is required. Under high odds, whether the winning rate can be effectively improved is the key to whether the reversal starts. However, we have not yet seen a significant improvement in the macro fundamentals at the margin, which means that the molecular end is still weak, and in terms of incremental funds, With admissions expected to gradually slow down, investor expectations and market risk appetite may remain key factors disturbing the market. The market outlook for this round of rebound may gradually give way to fundamental logic and industrial logic. Bond market: The game surrounding the long-term downside space has intensified, and fluctuations in long-term interest rates may increase in stages. Judging from the bond lending situation, from the end of the year to March 8, the loan concentration ratio of 10Y230026 increased from 38.9% to 48.3%, and the loan concentration ratio of 30Y230023 increased from 16.2% to 32.9%. With long-term interest rates continuing to hit record lows, The pressure to continue to go long is also increasing, and the differences between long and short are still quite large. We need to be wary of the risk of amplified fluctuations in long-term interest rates in the short term. We may shorten the duration appropriately and wait for the high volatility phase to pass. Commodities: With current commodity prices fluctuating at high levels, rising expectations of overseas interest rate cuts and growing demand for gold purchases, gold prices are expected to continue to rise. Under the combined influence of the positive overseas macro resonance and the expected recovery of domestic demand, commodities are expected to continue a steady upward trend as a whole. At the same time, the situation in the Red Sea remains tense, and geopolitical risks still exist or may provide further support. Risk warning: policy support is less than expected; policy implementation is less than expected; economic recovery process is less than expected', 'authorid': UUID('a2700561-8738-5acf-b44a-342784ba77a6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6845169831067324, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '4A5BE9PMP40G0F23VIT5BVNJ07VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:48:12 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '4A5BE9PMP40G0F23VIT5BVNJ07VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8ab7df19-d9a8-5941-a031-a5893f582c35'), 'title': 'Comments on February inflation data: Under the influence of the Spring Festival, the performance of CPI and PPI diverges', 'author': 'Yu Tianxu', 'orgName': '万联证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000187', 'orgSName': '万联证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el4JFr+3457r0NPnEmPV87Bw=', 'researcher': '于天旭', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000348537'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el4JFr+3457r0NPnEmPV87Bw=', 'site': 'Wanlian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '万联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626364237_1.pdf?1710229375000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626364237_1.pdf?1710229375000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February inflation data: Under the influence of the Spring Festival, the performance of CPI and PPI diverges', 'originalAuthor': '于天旭', 'originalContent': '事件：2月CPI同比0.7%，前值-0.8%，环比1%；PPI同比-2.7%，前值-2.5%，环比-0.2%。CPI增速转正，食品项、服务项价格大幅上行，核心CPI同比走高。食品项、服务同比由分别上行5、1.4个pct至-0.9%、1.9%，核心CPI同比上行0.8个百分点至1.2%。食品价格季节性上行，猪肉同比明显拉升，水果、蔬菜价格同环比均大幅上行。受到春节错位和需求季节性增加的影响，2月猪价同环比明显抬升，未来产能将继续保持去化。果蔬价格显著拉升，春节和部分地区雨雪天气为主要影响。牛羊肉、蛋类、食用油价格同比回落，粮食、烟草价格整体保持平稳，酒类价格同比下滑。非食品项中，汽车价格同比保持低位，春节假期带动出行、旅游相关服务需求，但房租、家庭服务保持低位。汽车降价促销尚未结束，交通工具分项同比由-5.6%小幅上行为-5.4%。服务项分项表现具有一定差异，春节假期出行、娱乐需求显著增加，机票、旅游、住宿价格均有所上涨。教育、家庭服务增速持平，房租价格小幅回落，务工人员集中返乡带来一定影响。PPI同比回落，加工工业-原材料工业剪刀差转正。工业品价格水平仍处于低位，PPI上行动力不足。生产资料中，采掘工业同比上行，加工和原材料工业同比回落，但原材料下行幅度偏大，两者剪刀差缩窄。生活资料中，耐用消费品、衣着、食品类同比增速均有所上行。黑色金属、有色金属产业链价格持续下滑，下游制造业价格依然较为低迷。采掘业中，煤炭开采和洗选业为同比主要拉动项，石油和天然气开采业也有所上行。春节期间地产、基建等工程建设停工，带来钢材、水泥等产品需求回落，价格有所下行。整体中下游行业需求不足的问题依然存在，价格波动小于上游行业，春节期间停工给工业生产带来一定影响。通胀短期仍将保持温和，春节影响将逐步消退。2月春节影响下，CPI和PPI的表现明显分化，背后是居民食品、服务消费和工业开工带来的走势差异。虽然2月CPI明显反弹，但春节过后服务类消费面临边际转弱的压力，居民消费旺盛的可持续性依然有待观察。当前猪肉产能保持去化，但猪肉价格大幅反弹的风险有限，CPI或延续低位温和的态势。随着3月基建、地产等复工复产，工业品需求有望边际好转，但上行幅度依然相对有限。我国积极的财政政策将发力提振内需，政策也开始关注价格问题，短期CPI驱动依然较为有限，随着经济的修复，价格提振仍需时间，低基数也将给CPI带来一定推力。风险因素：海外经济政策节奏和幅度超预期，居民消费回暖可持续性有待观察，原油价格上行幅度超预期。', 'content': \"Event: CPI in February was 0.7% year-on-year, -0.8% previous value, and 1% month-on-month; PPI was -2.7% year-on-year, -2.5% previous value, and -0.2% month-on-month. The CPI growth rate turned positive, the prices of food items and services increased significantly, and the core CPI increased year-on-year. Food items and services increased by 5 and 1.4 percentage points year-on-year to -0.9% and 1.9% respectively, and core CPI increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 1.2%. Food prices have risen seasonally, with pork prices rising significantly year-on-year, and fruit and vegetable prices rising sharply year-on-month. Affected by the misalignment of the Spring Festival and the seasonal increase in demand, the price of pigs in February increased significantly year-on-month, and production capacity will continue to be reduced in the future. The price of fruits and vegetables has increased significantly, mainly affected by the Spring Festival and rain and snow weather in some areas. The prices of beef, mutton, eggs, and edible oils fell year-on-year, the prices of grain and tobacco remained stable overall, and the prices of alcohol fell year-on-year. Among non-food items, car prices remained low year-on-year. The Spring Festival holiday drove demand for travel and tourism-related services, but rents and household services remained low. The car price reduction promotion has not yet ended, and the transportation sub-category increased slightly from -5.6% to -5.4% year-on-year. There are certain differences in the performance of service items. The demand for travel and entertainment increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday, and the prices of air tickets, tourism, and accommodation all increased. The growth rates of education and household services have remained flat, rent prices have fallen slightly, and the return of migrant workers to their hometowns has had a certain impact. PPI fell year-on-year, and the scissor difference between the processing industry and the raw material industry turned positive. The price level of industrial products is still at a low level, and the upward momentum of PPI is insufficient. Among the means of production, the mining industry rose year-on-year, while the processing and raw material industry fell year-on-year. However, the decline in raw materials was relatively large, and the scissor gap between the two narrowed. Among daily necessities, the year-on-year growth rates of consumer durables, clothing, and food all increased. Prices in the ferrous and non-ferrous metal industry chains continue to decline, and prices in the downstream manufacturing industry remain relatively sluggish. In the mining industry, the coal mining and washing industry was the main driver year-on-year, and the oil and natural gas mining industry also experienced an upward trend. During the Spring Festival, the construction of real estate, infrastructure and other projects was suspended, which brought about a drop in demand for steel, cement and other products, and prices fell. The problem of insufficient demand in the overall midstream and downstream industries still exists, and price fluctuations are smaller than those in the upstream industries. The shutdown during the Spring Festival has a certain impact on industrial production. Inflation will remain moderate in the short term, and the impact of the Spring Festival will gradually fade. Under the influence of the Spring Festival in February, the performance of CPI and PPI was obviously divergent. Behind this was the difference in trends brought about by residents' food and service consumption and industrial start-up. Although CPI rebounded significantly in February, service consumption faced marginal weakening pressure after the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of strong household consumption remains to be seen. The current pork production capacity remains reduced, but the risk of a sharp rebound in pork prices is limited, and the CPI may continue to remain low and moderate. With the resumption of work and production in infrastructure, real estate, etc. in March, demand for industrial products is expected to improve marginally, but the upward trend is still relatively limited. my country's active fiscal policy will work hard to boost domestic demand, and policies have also begun to pay attention to price issues. The short-term CPI drive is still relatively limited. With the recovery of the economy, it will still take time to boost prices, and the low base will also bring some impetus to CPI. Risk factors: The pace and scope of overseas economic policies exceed expectations, the sustainability of the recovery in household consumption remains to be seen, and the rise in crude oil prices exceeds expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('f09132a4-2048-5601-aef1-20be35dfd0c9'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9120943211019039, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'P8D6GG680JB1LN6E1HSKHN8G8RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:48:15 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'P8D6GG680JB1LN6E1HSKHN8G8RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b26b89d5-c120-5e72-84ab-72ddffa37fec'), 'title': 'Special report: Observing liquidity changes from the perspective of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet (2)', 'author': 'Ding Peizhou, Huang Tian', 'orgName': '国投安信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066669', 'orgSName': '国投安信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-12', 'encodeUrl': 'mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el7pp1yNmN0lIYaFj3HdUmxU=', 'researcher': '丁沛舟,黄恬', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000224020', '11000425032'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=mKvJcfWZ/eP4KMDXp+6el7pp1yNmN0lIYaFj3HdUmxU=', 'site': 'SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投安信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626361133_1.pdf?1710253658000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626361133_1.pdf?1710253658000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Special report: Observing liquidity changes from the perspective of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet (2)', 'originalAuthor': '丁沛舟,黄恬', 'originalContent': '相关阅读：以美联储资产负债表视角观察流动性变化（一）2020年3月，为了应对疫情可能带来的经济危机，联邦基金利率区间快速降至0%-0.25%。美国通过货币政策配合巨量财政刺激，重启量化宽松。财政赤字货币化拉动了美国经济，但政府债务飙升随之而来。2020年底美国的公共债务约21万亿美元，同增约4.2万亿，而美联储持有的美债约6.7万亿，同增约2.4万亿。2020年，公共持有的债务占美国GDP比重已高达99.78%。另一方面，只要美联储不在公开市场上抛售债券资产，这些以购债形式撒向市场的钱，已成为了事实上的新增货币。量化宽松导致基础货币增加是否一定引发通货膨胀并无定论，但2021年美国CPI同比开始攀升，2022年最高达到9.3%。美联储不得不正视管理通胀的问题，更重要的是，在管理通胀的同时保证就业以及维护金融稳定的问题。2022年3月美联储启动加息，6月开始缩表，2023年下半年开始美联储已经停止加息，并将在3月议息会议上讨论QT相关事宜。美联储QT的方式是“被动式”的，即有计划地停止到期债务展期。自2022年6月1日开始，前三个月国债、MBS分别以每月300、175亿美元的速度缩减，之后分别提高到每月600亿、350亿美元。如果每月到期的附息国债数额低于缩减的目标值，则通过到期的短期国债补充。缩表的影响在资产端表现为国债和MBS余额下降，而在负债端，TGA、储备金和逆回购则表现各异。在探究缩表进程以及流动性变化以及之前，需要先提及美联储的货币政策框架以及美国货币市场的结构。调节联邦基金利率（FederalFundRate，FFR）及其目标区间是美联储实施货币政策的主要手段。在金融危机之前，美联储执行的是稀缺准备金框架（ScarceReserves），通过“走廊体系”控制FFR的上下沿，其中FFR的下沿是储备金利率（Interestrateonreserve，IOR），上沿是贴现利率（DiscountRate，DR）。在稀缺准备金框架下，美联储将准备金利率设置为零，并通过公开市场操作来调节准备金供应，从而令EFFR运行于目标区间内。2008年之后，大放水导致流动性泛滥，银行准备金余额远超准备金要求和应对支付冲击的需求，美联储难以再通过准备金供应的改变去调节FFR，于是转向充足准备金框架（AmpleReserves）——通过调整准备金利率为FFR设置下限——也就是“地板”体系。如果FFR低于超额准备金利率（interestrateonexcessreserve，IOER），银行会选择将资金放入美联储而不是到银行间市场借出，由此IOER成为FFR的下限。但实际中EFFR往往在IOER下方运行，这是因为随着银行资产负债表的扩大，资产负债表的成本也会增加，银行借入边际储备金所要求的利率就会低一些。另一方面，银行间市场的参与者还有FHLBs、房地美、房利美这样的GSEs，它们手里的流动性无法在美联储获得IOER，因此愿意以低于IOER的利率在银行间市场借出，所以EFFR实际上低于IOER运行。2013年美联储推出了面向货币基金、GSEs等非银机构的隔夜逆回购（ONRRP）工具，目的是吸收这些机构手里的冗余流动性。这样一来，非银机构手里的资金就有了ONRRP作为托底，因此ONRRP成为了FFR事实上的“地板”利率。2021年7月29日，美联储以IORB取代了IOER和IORR，EFFR维持在IORB和ONRRP之间运行。', 'content': 'Related reading: Observing liquidity changes from the perspective of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet (1) In March 2020, in order to cope with the economic crisis that may be caused by the epidemic, the federal funds rate range was quickly lowered to 0%-0.25%. The United States has restarted quantitative easing through monetary policy combined with massive fiscal stimulus. Monetizing the fiscal deficit boosted the U.S. economy, but soaring government debt followed. At the end of 2020, the public debt of the United States was approximately US$21 trillion, an increase of approximately 4.2 trillion year-on-year, while the US debt held by the Federal Reserve was approximately 6.7 trillion, an increase of approximately 2.4 trillion US dollars year-on-year. In 2020, publicly held debt accounted for 99.78% of U.S. GDP. On the other hand, as long as the Fed does not sell bond assets in the open market, the money poured into the market in the form of bond purchases has become de facto new money. It is not clear whether the increase in base money caused by quantitative easing will definitely trigger inflation. However, the U.S. CPI will begin to rise year-on-year in 2021, reaching a maximum of 9.3% in 2022. The Fed has to face up to the problem of managing inflation, and more importantly, managing inflation while ensuring employment and maintaining financial stability. The Fed started raising interest rates in March 2022 and began shrinking its balance sheet in June. The Fed has stopped raising interest rates since the second half of 2023 and will discuss QT-related matters at the March interest rate meeting. The Fed\\'s QT approach is \"passive\", that is, it systematically stops the rollover of maturing debt. Starting from June 1, 2022, Treasury bonds and MBS decreased at a rate of US$30 billion and US$17.5 billion per month respectively in the first three months, and then increased to US$60 billion and US$35 billion per month respectively. If the amount of monthly maturing interest-bearing Treasury bonds falls below the reduction target, it will be supplemented by maturing short-term Treasury bonds. The impact of balance sheet shrinkage is manifested in the decline in the balance of government bonds and MBS on the asset side, while on the liability side, TGA, reserves and reverse repurchases have different performances. Before exploring the balance sheet reduction process and liquidity changes, we need to first mention the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy framework and the structure of the U.S. money market. Adjusting the federal funds rate (Federal Fund Rate, FFR) and its target range are the main means by which the Federal Reserve implements monetary policy. Before the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve implemented a scarce reserve framework (ScarceReserves) and controlled the upper and lower edges of FFR through the \"corridor system\". The lower edge of FFR was the reserve interest rate (Interestrateonreserve, IOR), and the upper edge was the discount rate (DiscountRate). ,DR). Under the scarce reserves framework, the Fed sets the reserve interest rate to zero and adjusts reserve supply through open market operations to keep EFFR within the target range. After 2008, large-scale water supply led to flooding of liquidity, and bank reserve balances far exceeded reserve requirements and the need to cope with payment shocks. The Fed could no longer adjust FFR through changes in reserve supply, so it turned to the adequate reserve framework (AmpleReserves) - — Setting a lower limit for FFR by adjusting the reserve interest rate—that is, the “floor” system. If the FFR is lower than the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER), banks will choose to put funds in the Federal Reserve instead of lending them to the interbank market, so IOER becomes the lower limit of FFR. However, in practice, EFFR often runs below IOER. This is because as banks\\' balance sheets expand, the cost of the balance sheet will also increase, and the interest rate required by banks to borrow marginal reserves will be lower. On the other hand, participants in the interbank market include GSEs such as FHLBs, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae. The liquidity in their hands cannot obtain IOER from the Federal Reserve, so they are willing to borrow in the interbank market at an interest rate lower than IOER. out, so the EFFR is actually running lower than the IOER. In 2013, the Federal Reserve launched the Overnight Reverse Repurchase (ONRRP) facility for non-bank institutions such as monetary funds and GSEs, with the purpose of absorbing the redundant liquidity in the hands of these institutions. In this way, the funds in the hands of non-bank institutions have ONRRP as a backing, so ONRRP has become the de facto \"floor\" interest rate of FFR. On July 29, 2021, the Federal Reserve replaced IOER and IORR with IORB, and EFFR maintained its operation between IORB and ONRRP.', 'authorid': UUID('664769de-015d-5e1d-9e70-f4779d89caa1'), 'sentimentScore': -0.16178059577941895, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '84ILM1PV5PK0M4BGHQRNS1U2IRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:48:18 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '84ILM1PV5PK0M4BGHQRNS1U2IRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('67b7fb5b-9121-5588-95e9-a3d2317eead0'), 'title': 'Unemployment rate rises unexpectedly, expectations for Fed rate cut increase', 'author': 'Yu Qi', 'orgName': '致富证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80102269', 'orgSName': '致富证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BOdEwQY0R7SVWNMnedXzVi4=', 'researcher': '余琦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000352833'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BOdEwQY0R7SVWNMnedXzVi4=', 'site': 'CHIEF SECURITIES LIMITED', 'originalSite': '致富证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626264335_1.pdf?1710190193000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626264335_1.pdf?1710190193000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Unemployment rate rises unexpectedly, expectations for Fed rate cut increase', 'originalAuthor': '余琦', 'originalContent': '事件：2024年2月美国新增非农就业人数为27.5万人（上月新增22.9万人，市场预期增加20万人）。失业率为3.9%（上月3.8%，市场预期3.8%）；劳动参与率62.5%（上月62.5%，市场预期62.6%）；平均时薪同比上涨4.3%（上月上涨4.5%，市场预期4.4%），环比上涨0.1%（上月上涨0.6%，市场预期上涨0.3%）。点评：1、虽然2月美国非农新增就业人数27.5万人，高于市场预期20万人，但此前2个月就业数据大幅下调，其中1月就业数据从35.3万人大幅下调至22.9万人，2023年12月数据从33.3万人下调至29万人，前两个月就业数据总计下调16.7万人。此外，2月失业率3.9%高于市场预期，平均时薪环比增幅0.1%相比上月出现明显放缓，美国就业市场出现一定程度的降温迹象。2、2月美国非农新增就业人数主要来源是服务业，相比上月新增20.4万人，除了住宿餐饮外，主要来自与宏观经济关联度不大的教育保健和政府部门，后两项对整体新增的拉动贡献占比接近50%。具体来看，教育保健行业增加8.5万人，住宿餐饮行业增加5.8万人，政府部门增加5.2万人；贸易运输公用行业增加1.97万人，零售业增加1.87万人，商业服务业新增9000人，信息咨询业增加2000人。此外，建筑业新增2.3万人，制造业减少4000人。3、美国劳动力市场已经完全恢复至疫情之前水平，2月非农就业人数总计1.578亿，相比2020年2月增加549.9万人，增幅为3.61%。从分项数据来看，只有就业人数较少的采矿业相比疫情前仍存在6.43%的缺口，休闲住宿行业相比疫情前存在0.01%的小幅缺口，其他行业的就业人数都超过疫情前水平。具体来看，建筑业相比疫情前增加54.7万人，增幅为7.81%；制造业相比疫情前增加18.4万人，增幅为1.44%；运输仓储业相比疫情前增加73.2万人，增幅为12.7%；金融业相比疫情前增加36万人，增幅为4.06%；零售业相比疫情前增加12.6万人，增幅为0.81%；商业服务相比2019年同期增加149.4万人，增幅为6.97%；教育医疗相比疫情前增加144.6万人，增幅为5.88%；政府部门相比疫情前增加31.3万人，增幅为1.37%。结论：1、1月美国非农就业数据如我们此前预计出现了大幅下调（见《美国1月非农数据快评》），虽然2月非农就业数据高于预期，但主要来自与宏观经济关联度不大的教育保健和政府部门，加之2月失业率高于预期且达到两年高点，平均时薪增速明显下降，创2022年以来单月环比增幅最低。表明货币政策的时滞效应已经逐渐传导到就业市场，美国就业市场初现一定程度的降温迹象。2、鲍威尔上周在国会听证会上的发言偏鸽，表示如果通货膨胀回落趋势确定，美联储将在今年启动降息，同时联储非常清楚降息太晚的风险。目前CME交易所预测美联储3月不降息的概率高达96%，5月不降息的概率为76%，而6月开始降息的概率则高达72.8%。我们维持美联储将在二季度首次降息的判断，同时认为降息节奏会较为灵活，若经济数据出现快速变化，单次降息25bp或者50bp均有可能，全年降息幅度将在125-150bp。3、对未来大类资产价格走势，我们的判断是：美股近期连创新高，但一旦联储正式开启降息，反而有可能迎来一波调整。一季度美股围绕降息预期变化的震荡可能会加剧。美元指数近期持续回调，预计中期将维持100-105的震荡区间。十年期美债收益率2月以来由于降息预期下降，反弹至4%以上，但进入3月出现持续回落，预计近期跌破4%回到3.5-4%的区间震荡的概率较大。如我们此前提示，黄金价格近期已经突破历史新高，预计中期维持2000美元/盎司以上高位震荡的概率较大。', 'content': 'Event: In February 2024, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States was 275,000 (229,000 new jobs were added last month, and the market expected an increase of 200,000). The unemployment rate was 3.9% (3.8% last month, market expected 3.8%); the labor force participation rate was 62.5% (62.5% last month, market expected 62.6%); average hourly wages increased 4.3% year-on-year (up 4.5% last month, market expected) 4.4%), up 0.1% month-on-month (up 0.6% last month, market expected to rise 0.3%). Comments: 1. Although the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States was 275,000 in February, which was higher than market expectations of 200,000, the employment data in the previous two months were significantly lowered. Among them, the employment data in January was significantly lowered from 353,000 to 229,000. People, the data in December 2023 was revised down from 333,000 to 290,000, and the employment data in the first two months was revised down by a total of 167,000. In addition, the unemployment rate in February was 3.9% higher than market expectations, the average hourly wage increase of 0.1% month-on-month showed a significant slowdown compared to the previous month, and the U.S. job market showed signs of cooling to a certain extent. 2. The main source of new non-agricultural employment in the United States in February was the service industry, with an increase of 204,000 compared to the previous month. In addition to accommodation and catering, they mainly came from education, health care and government departments that have little connection with the macro economy. The latter two The contribution of the project to the overall new increase is close to 50%. Specifically, the education and health care industry increased by 85,000 people, the accommodation and catering industry increased by 58,000 people, and the government departments increased by 52,000 people; the trade, transportation and public utility industry increased by 19,700 people, the retail industry increased by 18,700 people, and the commercial service industry increased by 9,000 people. , the information consulting industry increased by 2,000 people. In addition, the construction industry added 23,000 people and the manufacturing industry decreased by 4,000 people. 3. The U.S. labor market has fully returned to pre-epidemic levels. Non-farm employment totaled 157.8 million in February, an increase of 5.499 million or 3.61% compared to February 2020. Judging from the breakdown of data, only the mining industry, which has a small number of employees, still has a gap of 6.43% compared to before the epidemic. The leisure accommodation industry has a small gap of 0.01% compared to before the epidemic. The number of employees in other industries has exceeded the pre-epidemic level. . Specifically, the construction industry has an increase of 547,000 people compared with before the epidemic, an increase of 7.81%; the manufacturing industry has an increase of 184,000 people, an increase of 1.44% compared with before the epidemic; the transportation and warehousing industry has an increase of 732,000 people compared with before the epidemic, an increase of 1.44%. 12.7%; the financial industry increased by 360,000 people compared with before the epidemic, an increase of 4.06%; the retail industry increased by 126,000 people compared with before the epidemic, an increase of 0.81%; commercial services increased by 1.494 million people compared with the same period in 2019, an increase of 697 %; education and medical services increased by 1.446 million people compared with before the epidemic, an increase of 5.88%; government departments increased by 313,000 people compared with before the epidemic, an increase of 1.37%. Conclusion: 1. The U.S. non-farm employment data in January was significantly lowered as we previously expected (see \"Quick Review of U.S. Non-Farm Employment Data in January\"). Although the February non-farm employment data was higher than expected, it was mainly due to macroeconomic factors. In the education, health care and government sectors that are not closely related, and the unemployment rate in February was higher than expected and reached a two-year high, the growth rate of average hourly wages dropped significantly, hitting the lowest monthly growth rate in a single month since 2022. This shows that the time lag effect of monetary policy has gradually been transmitted to the job market, and the U.S. job market is showing signs of cooling to a certain extent. 2. Powell’s speech at a congressional hearing last week was dovish, saying that if the downward trend in inflation is confirmed, the Fed will start cutting interest rates this year. At the same time, the Fed is very aware of the risk of cutting interest rates too late. The CME Exchange currently predicts that the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in March is as high as 96%, the probability of not cutting interest rates in May is 76%, and the probability of starting to cut interest rates in June is as high as 72.8%. We maintain our judgment that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in the second quarter. We also believe that the pace of interest rate cuts will be more flexible. If economic data changes rapidly, a single interest rate cut of 25bp or 50bp is possible, and the annual rate cut will be between 125-150bp. 3. Regarding the future price trends of major asset classes, our judgment is that the U.S. stock market has hit new highs in recent times, but once the Federal Reserve officially starts cutting interest rates, it may usher in a wave of adjustments. The volatility of U.S. stocks around changes in interest rate cut expectations may intensify in the first quarter. The U.S. dollar index has continued to correct recently and is expected to maintain a range of 100-105 in the medium term. Since February, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has rebounded to above 4% due to declining expectations for interest rate cuts. However, it has continued to fall in March. It is expected that there is a high probability of falling below 4% in the near future and returning to the 3.5-4% range. As we have previously reminded, gold prices have recently broken through record highs, and it is expected that there is a high probability of maintaining high levels above US$2,000 per ounce in the medium term.', 'authorid': UUID('591fee66-cf6b-525f-a7bd-20c63c98a0b9'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9110997468233109, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OTOEQ6MNOE6N8IHGO0RQN254F7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:48:22 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OTOEQ6MNOE6N8IHGO0RQN254F7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f1293484-92e3-51e0-bd38-1434686716c2'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Weekly Report: Guosen Macro Diffusion Index still points to a weak economy and low interest rates', 'author': 'Li Zhizhi, Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BGELa032TV6/A5ZGZWzPE/Y=', 'researcher': '李智能,董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245053', '11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BGELa032TV6/A5ZGZWzPE/Y=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626224730_1.pdf?1710177018000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626224730_1.pdf?1710177018000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Weekly Report: Guosen Macro Diffusion Index still points to a weak economy and low interest rates', 'originalAuthor': '李智能,董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点国信宏观扩散指数仍指向经济偏弱，利率偏低。本周国信高频宏观扩散指数A转为负值，指数B有所回落。从分项来看，本周消费领域景气变化不大，投资、房地产领域景气有所回落。从季节性比较来看，本周指数B标准化后有所下行，表现逊于历史平均水平，国内经济增长向上动力仍偏弱。基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率和股票价格仍偏低，预计下周（2024年3月15日所在周）十年期国债利率、上证综合指数将上行。周度价格高频跟踪方面：（1）本周食品价格下跌，非食品价格上涨。预计2024年3月CPI食品环比约为-3.0%，非食品环比约为-0.1%，CPI整体环比约为-0.6%，3月CPI同比或回落至0.4%。（2）2月上旬国内流通领域生产资料价格小幅回落，中、下旬持续回升。预计2024年3月国内PPI环比在零附近，3月PPI同比或持平上月的-2.7%。风险提示：政策刺激力度减弱，经济增速下滑。', 'content': \"The core view is that the Guosen Macro Diffusion Index still points to a weak economy and low interest rates. Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative this week, and Index B fell back. From a sub-item perspective, there was little change in the consumer sector this week, while the investment and real estate sectors fell back. From a seasonal comparison point of view, index B has declined this week after normalization, and its performance is worse than the historical average. The upward momentum of domestic economic growth is still weak. Forecasting asset prices based on the Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index shows that current domestic interest rates and stock prices are still low. It is expected that the ten-year government bond interest rate and the Shanghai Composite Index will rise next week (the week of March 15, 2024). Weekly price high-frequency tracking: (1) Food prices fell this week, while non-food prices rose. It is expected that in March 2024, the CPI for food will be approximately -3.0% month-on-month, the month-on-month for non-food will be approximately -0.1%, and the overall CPI will be approximately -0.6% month-on-month. The CPI in March may fall back to 0.4% year-on-year. (2) Prices of means of production in the domestic circulation sector fell slightly in early February and continued to rise in the middle and late February. It is expected that the domestic PPI in March 2024 will be close to zero month-on-month, and the PPI in March may be the same as last month's -2.7% year-on-year. Risk warning: Policy stimulus will weaken and economic growth will decline.\", 'authorid': UUID('92623406-8214-5e94-84f7-458373c02882'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9629369955509901, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3T6H49N66K199KEP35M6FLACSRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:48:25 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3T6H49N66K199KEP35M6FLACSRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c9b7150c-4c20-59bb-b4dc-c718e63ad747'), 'title': 'Domestic high-frequency indicator tracking (Issue 8, 2024)', 'author': 'Z Honghu Ali Ang,Amber Zhou', 'orgName': '海通国际证券集团有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001968', 'orgSName': '海通国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BBxvTKbYfmEYafAO4HUp00c=', 'researcher': 'Zhonghua Liang,Amber Zhou', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000406832', '11000355042'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BBxvTKbYfmEYafAO4HUp00c=', 'site': 'Haitong International Securities Group Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '海通国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626217481_1.pdf?1710169802000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626217481_1.pdf?1710169802000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Domestic high-frequency indicator tracking (Issue 8, 2024)', 'originalAuthor': 'Zhonghua Liang,Amber Zhou', 'originalContent': '生产行业分化，地产承压、基建复工偏慢。消费方面，整体消费回归平淡，汽车、家电等耐用品消费，电影、旅游等服务消费均在小幅回落。投资方面，新房销售超季节性回落，当前仍在底部；基建资金到位或慢于往年，开工施工实物指标处于相对低位，这或是受前期政策影响，今年项目落地进度偏慢。进出口方面，港口船舶运转速度较快，或反映进出口需求相对较多。生产方面，传统型行业生产持续偏弱，新兴行业中光伏、汽车生产指标则均有回升，其中汽车行业景气度再创新高。库存方面，钢铁、沥青等建材逆季节性补库，或是今年需求相对偏弱。价格方面，消费品价格季节性回落，除建材外的工业品价格则小幅回升。流动性方面，美元指数回落至103点以下，人民币小幅升值。风险提示：稳增长政策不及预期。', 'content': \"The production industry is fragmented, real estate is under pressure, and infrastructure resumption is slow. In terms of consumption, overall consumption has returned to flatness. The consumption of durable goods such as cars and home appliances, and the consumption of services such as movies and tourism have all declined slightly. In terms of investment, new home sales have fallen super-seasonally and are still at the bottom; the arrival of infrastructure funds may be slower than in previous years, and the physical indicators of construction starts are at a relatively low level. This may be due to the impact of previous policies, and the progress of project implementation this year is slow. In terms of import and export, the faster movement of ships at the port may reflect the relatively large demand for import and export. In terms of production, production in traditional industries continues to be weak, while photovoltaic and automobile production indicators in emerging industries have rebounded, with the automobile industry's prosperity hitting a new high. In terms of inventory, steel, asphalt and other building materials are being replenished counter-seasonally, or demand is relatively weak this year. In terms of prices, consumer goods prices fell seasonally, while industrial product prices except building materials rebounded slightly. In terms of liquidity, the U.S. dollar index fell back below 103 points, and the RMB appreciated slightly. Risk warning: Policies to stabilize growth fall short of expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('21742a72-b2bd-533e-9f1a-c6fdb159a438'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9631604729220271, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OLJ4VHCHE7DV75PGAUVJ1TQ307VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:48:27 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OLJ4VHCHE7DV75PGAUVJ1TQ307VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('03d21493-ad1e-5201-b354-f400c866fa4f'), 'title': 'Weekly observation of major asset classes', 'author': 'Pu Zulin', 'orgName': '正信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80019274', 'orgSName': '正信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BKry4ILXdnXwpsxnyDkaTww=', 'researcher': '蒲祖林', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000438232'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BKry4ILXdnXwpsxnyDkaTww=', 'site': 'Zhengxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '正信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626216270_1.pdf?1710168202000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626216270_1.pdf?1710168202000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly observation of major asset classes', 'originalAuthor': '蒲祖林', 'originalContent': '大类资产周评：美国就业市场降温，中国宏观政策不及预期策略概述1、美国2月就业市场和服务业边际降温，金融市场演绎乐观降息预期，美债利率持续下行，实际利率回落驱动风险资产价格延续强劲涨势，关注本周美国2月CPI数据确认是否转折。2、国内两会召开释放宏观预期指引，高质量发展基调和超长期特别国债发行计划令市场预期分化，地产链条为主的传统经济承压，新质生产力为代表的新经济则预期收益，但总量层面政策力度仍不及市场预期，驱动国内风险资产价格纷纷下挫。短期货币供需中性偏紧，企业债务融资需求维持高位，资金价格边际趋紧。地产高频销售结构分化，新房和二手房劈叉，总量延续疲弱，制造业产能利用率内外需分化，经济复苏仍需更强宽财政政策刺激，随着特别国债发行资金逐步落地和两会后各地加速开工，经济有望逐步筑底企稳。投资要点美国通胀在高利率的约束下已经进入乐观区间，四季度GDP也开始见顶回落，美联储政策大概率已经确认进入降息周期前夕，美国经济将不可避免进入浅衰退或软着陆，短期经济反弹两个月后再度走弱，金融市场再度展开乐观降息预期，金融条件边际宽松驱动风险资产价格上涨，海外企业盈利边际下行令股市和商品承压。中国宏观需求仍显不足，制造业减产去库存，库存低位和供需双弱，企业利润趋稳，关注2月货币融资数据表现。本周大类资产配置方面建议回调做多风险资产（股票）和回调做多避险资产（国债）进行配置，权益风格预计成长占优，关注结构性机会；商品预计震荡走弱，建议回调做多配置农产品和有色等工业品，反弹做空黑色和化工相关工业品；利率短期新低后有望超跌反弹，建议急跌做多十债、五债或多短空长套利，美国实际利率高位回调，驱动贵金属价格历史新高，短期有超买回调风险，建议持多或减仓黄金和白银多单。风险提示美国通胀和就业扰动、国内实体经济恢复不及预期、地缘军事冲突', 'content': \"Weekly Review of Major Assets: The U.S. job market cooled, and China’s macroeconomic policies fell short of expectations Strategy Overview 1. The U.S. job market and service industry cooled marginally in February, and the financial market interpreted optimistic interest rate cut expectations. U.S. bond interest rates continued to decline, and the fall in real interest rates drove risk assets Prices continue to rise strongly, and attention will be paid to whether the U.S. CPI data for February confirms a turning point this week. 2. The convening of the domestic two sessions released macro expected guidance. The high-quality development tone and the ultra-long-term special treasury bond issuance plan have divided market expectations. The traditional economy dominated by the real estate chain is under pressure, and the new economy represented by new productive forces is expected to gain, but overall The intensity of quantitative policies is still less than market expectations, driving the prices of domestic risk assets to fall one after another. Short-term money supply and demand are neutral, corporate debt financing needs remain high, and capital prices are marginally tight. The high-frequency sales structure of real estate is differentiated, with new and second-hand houses split, the total volume continues to be weak, the utilization rate of manufacturing capacity is divided between internal and external demand, and economic recovery still needs stronger fiscal policy stimulus. By accelerating the start of construction, the economy is expected to gradually bottom out and stabilize. Investment Points: U.S. inflation has entered an optimistic range under the constraints of high interest rates. GDP has also begun to peak and fall in the fourth quarter. The Federal Reserve policy has most likely confirmed that on the eve of entering an interest rate cut cycle, the U.S. economy will inevitably enter a shallow recession or soft landing and a short-term economic rebound. It weakened again two months later. The financial market once again launched optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts. Marginal easing of financial conditions drove the price of risky assets to rise. The profit margin of overseas companies declined, which put pressure on the stock market and commodities. China's macroeconomic demand is still insufficient. The manufacturing industry has reduced production and destocked. Inventories are low and supply and demand are weak. Corporate profits have stabilized. Pay attention to the performance of February's monetary financing data. In terms of asset allocation this week, it is recommended to go long risk assets (stocks) and long safe-haven assets (treasury bonds) after a callback. The equity style is expected to grow and focus on structural opportunities. Commodities are expected to fluctuate and weaken, so it is recommended to go long a callback. Allocate more to agricultural products, non-ferrous metals and other industrial products, and go short black and chemical-related industrial products on rebound; interest rates are expected to rebound after reaching a new low in the short term. It is recommended to go long on ten bonds, five bonds or long short-short and long-term arbitrage after a sudden drop. The real interest rate in the United States has been pulled back from the high level. It has driven the price of precious metals to record highs, and there is a risk of overbought correction in the short term. It is recommended to hold long or reduce long positions in gold and silver. Risk reminder: U.S. inflation and employment disruptions, domestic real economy recovery less than expected, geo-military conflicts\", 'authorid': UUID('aebc7166-97b8-5419-ad05-d62abbd6b41f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8772300854325294, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'D1OPPE8DUAIL4ONLVFEVINV6RVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:48:30 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'D1OPPE8DUAIL4ONLVFEVINV6RVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ef2ce826-e965-5c2a-846a-76a67207d0ab'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: The two sessions set development goals, and trade performance was better than expected', 'author': 'Zheng Jianxin', 'orgName': '国贸期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80004615', 'orgSName': '国贸期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BOlwsW3PVWP4v7vk9j8Iu98=', 'researcher': '郑建鑫', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245638'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BOlwsW3PVWP4v7vk9j8Iu98=', 'site': 'Guomao Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国贸期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215646_1.pdf?1710166876000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215646_1.pdf?1710166876000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: The two sessions set development goals, and trade performance was better than expected', 'originalAuthor': '郑建鑫', 'originalContent': '观点展望后市：内外需定价的商品走势分化。内需定价类商品：弱现实与政策预期的摇摆。一方面，春节后，国内需求恢复明显弱于预期，尤其是房地产的销售和开工明显弱于预期，拖累黑色系为代表的内需定价类商品的表现；另一方面，国内稳增长政策持续加码，两会确认发行超长期国债、提升专项债额度，货币政策保持宽松，将有望提振未来的需求预期。外需定价类商品：今年以来，各国制造业PMI普遍大幅回升，发达经济边际改善幅度明显好于新兴市场，同时，欧美央行降息预期此起彼伏，全球需求回暖叠加货币宽松预期带动外需定价类的商品表现偏强。不过，当前欧美经济增长趋缓、商品需求偏弱的基本趋势不变，反弹的持续性或将受到制约。核心逻辑（1）本周国内商品继续震荡上行，一是，受供给收缩和需求改善预期的提振，农产品板块涨幅居前；二是，受欧美央行降息预期升温的影响，美元指数回落，叠加供给端面临扰动，基本金属震荡上行。不过，受国内需求偏弱（尤其是房地产）的影响，黑色系商品走势较弱。（2）政府工作报告明确发展目标，前两月贸易表现好于预期。1）今年经济增速目标定在5%左右，考虑到低基数效应消退，今年要实现5%的增速目标难度有所提升，政策基调将更加积极，预计2024年经济将延续复苏态势，或呈现出前稳后升态势。2）按美元计价，1-2月出口���计同比7.1%，进口累计同比3.5%，均好于预期和前值。今年以来，各国制造业PMI普遍大幅回升，发达经济边际改善幅度明显好于新兴市场，全球需求回暖，带动我国出口明显改善。展望后市，当前欧美经济增长趋缓、商品需求偏弱的基本趋势不变，但欧美经济仍有一定韧性。因此，海外经济的不确定性将对后续我国对外贸易造成持续的影响。去年出口基数明显升高，或将影响短期的出口增速表现。（3）美国非农就业总量强劲，欧央行按兵不动。1）2月新增非农就业升至27.5万，失业率升至3.9%，平均时薪环比降至0.1%。综合这些劳动力市场指标来看，美国劳动力市场仍然处于走弱但是韧性较强的态势。结合近期美联储官员的表态来看，预计2月非农数据对当前美联储的决策影响或有限，相较于单月数据美联储当前或更加关注就业数据的趋势性变化，同时还需密切关注后续通胀数据。2）欧洲央行公布3月利率决议，如预期一致维持欧央行三大主要利率不变。会议下调未来两年通胀预测值，称降通胀取得良好进展。行长拉加德在新闻发布会上表示，“市场预期似乎正在更好地趋同”，暗示当前市场押注6月首次降息的可取性。', 'content': 'Viewpoint: Looking forward to the market outlook: The trends of commodities that require pricing at home and abroad are divergent. Domestic demand-priced commodities: weak reality and swings in policy expectations. On the one hand, after the Spring Festival, the recovery of domestic demand was significantly weaker than expected, especially the sales and construction starts of real estate were significantly weaker than expected, dragging down the performance of domestically priced commodities represented by black series; on the other hand, domestic stabilizing growth policies continued to increase, The Two Sessions confirmed the issuance of ultra-long-term government bonds, increased quotas for special bonds, and maintained loose monetary policy, which is expected to boost future demand expectations. External demand pricing commodities: Since the beginning of this year, manufacturing PMIs in various countries have generally rebounded sharply, and the marginal improvement of developed economies has been significantly better than that of emerging markets. At the same time, expectations of interest rate cuts by European and American central banks have emerged one after another, and the rebound in global demand coupled with expectations of monetary easing have driven the performance of external demand pricing commodities to be biased. powerful. However, the current basic trends of slowing economic growth and weak commodity demand in Europe and the United States remain unchanged, and the sustainability of the rebound may be restricted. Core logic (1) Domestic commodities continued to fluctuate upward this week. First, boosted by expectations of contraction in supply and improvement in demand, the agricultural product sector led the gains; second, affected by rising expectations of interest rate cuts by European and American central banks, the U.S. dollar index fell back, superimposing The supply side faces disturbances, and base metals fluctuate upward. However, affected by weak domestic demand (especially real estate), the trend of black products is weak. (2) The government work report clearly stated development goals, and trade performance in the first two months was better than expected. 1) This year’s economic growth target is set at around 5%. Considering that the low base effect has subsided, it will be more difficult to achieve the 5% growth target this year. The policy tone will be more positive. It is expected that the economy will continue to recover in 2024, or Showing a trend of stabilizing before rising and then rising. 2) In terms of US dollars, the cumulative exports from January to February were 7.1% year-on-year, and the cumulative imports were 3.5% year-on-year, both better than expected and the previous value. Since the beginning of this year, the manufacturing PMI of various countries has generally rebounded significantly. The marginal improvement of developed economies has been significantly better than that of emerging markets. The rebound in global demand has led to a significant improvement in my country\\'s exports. Looking forward to the market outlook, the current basic trends of slowing economic growth and weak demand for goods in Europe and the United States remain unchanged, but the European and American economies still have certain resilience. Therefore, overseas economic uncertainty will have a lasting impact on my country\\'s subsequent foreign trade. The export base increased significantly last year, which may affect short-term export growth performance. (3) The total non-farm employment in the United States is strong, and the European Central Bank is on hold. 1) New non-agricultural employment rose to 275,000 in February, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, and the average hourly wage dropped to 0.1% month-on-month. Based on these labor market indicators, the U.S. labor market is still weakening but resilient. Judging from recent statements by Federal Reserve officials, it is expected that the impact of February\\'s non-farm payroll data on the current Fed\\'s decision-making may be limited. Compared with single-month data, the Fed may pay more attention to trend changes in employment data. It also needs to pay close attention to subsequent inflation data. . 2) The European Central Bank announced its March interest rate decision, keeping the three major interest rates of the European Central Bank unchanged as expected. The meeting lowered the inflation forecast for the next two years and said that good progress has been made in reducing inflation. President Lagarde said at a press conference that \"market expectations appear to be converging better,\" suggesting that the market is currently betting on the desirability of a first interest rate cut in June.', 'authorid': UUID('a9121ac9-9180-5a0d-b04f-77adb31c9370'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9538604421541095, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'S02N1GCIP3T8IFNS0QFRM4GSUVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:48:32 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'S02N1GCIP3T8IFNS0QFRM4GSUVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8429411b-7322-591b-b268-a66e9e2ad404'), 'title': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm employment in February: employment and unemployment both rise, wage growth slows', 'author': 'Cai Rui, Li Shaojin', 'orgName': '交银国际证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80101832', 'orgSName': '交银国际证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BI1wv+xxQqqe0EY5S0GcVGM=', 'researcher': '蔡瑞,李少金', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000442439', '11000445033'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BI1wv+xxQqqe0EY5S0GcVGM=', 'site': 'BOCOM International Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '交银国际证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215472_1.pdf?1710166462000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215472_1.pdf?1710166462000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm employment in February: employment and unemployment both rise, wage growth slows', 'originalAuthor': '蔡瑞,李少金', 'originalContent': '美国2月非农新增就业27.5万人，再超预期20万人，前值修正至22.9万人。2月失业率升至3.9%，高于预期和前值3.8%。劳动参与率62.5%，与上月一致，但低于预期62.6%。2月平均时薪同比增速回落至4.3%，低于预期4.4%以及前值4.5%；平均时薪环比增速降至0.1%，低于预期0.3%和前值0.6%；平均每周工时回升至34.3，与预期持平，高于前值34.1。2月非农新增就业数据仍强劲，但前两月数据大幅下修。美国2月非农新增就业27.5万人，仍超预期20万人。此前两月数据大幅下修，2023年12月就业人数在上月大幅上修至33.3万人后，于本月再下修至29万人；1月新增就业由35.3万人大幅下修至22.9万人。修正后，前两月新增就业合计下修16.7万人。我们在上月报告曾提及1月新增就业大超预期可能一定程度受季节性招聘变化影响，特别是零售商在假期裁员的数量低于预期。2月新增就业仍较为强劲，反映企业仍在积极招聘。行业分布上，2月新增就业主要在医疗健康、政府等宏观敏感度不高的行业。医疗健康（+6.7万人）高于过去12个月平均的5.8万人。政府（+5.2万人）与过去12个月平均的5.3万人相当。食品（+4.2万人），社会救助（+2.4万人），建筑（+2.3万人）变化不大，而专业及商业服务就业大幅下降了3.1万人。家庭调查数据则出现明显降温。1）供给端略有回升。2月适龄工作人口增加17万人，劳动力人口增15万人，使得劳动力参与率接近维持不变。同时，失业人口大增33.4万人，使得失业率升至3.9%。2）需求端变化不大，职位空缺数略降至886万人，就业缺口维持在270万人附近，职位空缺数与失业人数之比仍在1.4附近，高于疫情前的1.2。薪资增速明显降温，工作时长略有增加。2月平均时薪同比增速回落至4.3%，低于预期4.4%；时薪环比增速降至0.1%，低于预期0.3%，以及上月的0.6%。1月时薪环比大幅增长主要源于恶劣天气导致平均工作时长缩短，抬高了平均时薪。2月平均每周工时有所回升，使得时薪增速略有回落。但整体上，时薪增速仍明显偏高，且高于美联储合意的3.5%的水平。2月非农新增就业好坏参半，降息预期略有上升。利率期货市场隐含的加息概率显示，3月维持利率不变的概率几无变化；2024年5月降息25基点概率升至34.5%，而就业数据公布前为26.7%。市场押注6月开始降息，且完全定价7月降息25个基点，而对2024年全年降息幅度的押注在3-4次。后市观察：近日美联储主席鲍威尔在两院听证会上表示，距离有信心开始降息“不远”了，而2月就业数据显示继续放缓的迹象也一定程度上助长了市场乐观降息预期。我们认为非农就业整体仍较为稳健，对降息走势影响可能仍较为有限。同时，美国将于3月12日公布2月通胀数据，由于1月CPI超预期上涨，作为美联储3月FOMC会议前的最后一份重要参考数据，其对降息路径指引的重要性不言而喻，仍需密切关注。', 'content': 'The United States added 275,000 non-farm jobs in February, exceeding expectations by 200,000. The previous value was revised to 229,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February, higher than expected and the previous value of 3.8%. The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, consistent with last month, but lower than expected at 62.6%. The average hourly wage growth in February fell back to 4.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous value of 4.5%; the average hourly wage growth fell to 0.1% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.6%; average weekly working hours It rose back to 34.3, which was in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 34.1. The new non-agricultural employment data in February was still strong, but the data in the first two months were significantly revised down. The United States added 275,000 non-farm jobs in February, still exceeding expectations by 200,000. The data for the previous two months were significantly downwardly revised. The number of employed people in December 2023 was revised downwards to 290,000 this month after being significantly upwardly revised to 333,000 last month. The number of new jobs in January was significantly downwardly revised from 353,000 to 333,000. 229,000 people. After the revision, the total number of new jobs in the first two months was revised downward by 167,000. We mentioned in last month\\'s report that the larger-than-expected increase in new jobs in January may be affected to some extent by changes in seasonal hiring, especially as the number of layoffs by retailers during the holidays was lower than expected. New jobs were still relatively strong in February, reflecting that companies are still actively hiring. In terms of industry distribution, new jobs in February were mainly in industries with low macro sensitivity, such as medical health and government. Healthcare (+67,000) was above the 58,000 average over the past 12 months. Government (+52,000) was on par with the 53,000 average over the past 12 months. Food (+42,000), social assistance (+24,000), and construction (+23,000) showed little change, while professional and business services employment fell sharply by 31,000. Household survey data showed a significant cooling. 1) The supply side has picked up slightly. In February, the working-age population increased by 170,000, and the labor force population increased by 150,000, keeping the labor force participation rate close to unchanged. At the same time, the number of unemployed people increased significantly by 334,000, causing the unemployment rate to rise to 3.9%. 2) The demand side has not changed much. The number of job vacancies has dropped slightly to 8.86 million, the employment gap has remained around 2.7 million, and the ratio of job vacancies to the number of unemployed people is still around 1.4, which is higher than 1.2 before the epidemic. Wage growth has cooled significantly, and working hours have increased slightly. Average hourly wage growth in February fell back to 4.3% year-on-year, lower than the 4.4% expected; hourly wage growth fell to 0.1% month-on-month, lower than the 0.3% expected, and 0.6% last month. The sharp month-on-month increase in hourly wages in January was mainly due to the shortening of average working hours due to bad weather, which increased average hourly wages. Average weekly hours worked rebounded in February, causing hourly wage growth to slow slightly. But overall, hourly wage growth is still significantly higher and higher than the 3.5% level desired by the Federal Reserve. New non-agricultural employment in February was mixed, and expectations for an interest rate cut increased slightly. The implied probability of an interest rate hike in the interest rate futures market shows that the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in March has barely changed; the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in May 2024 has risen to 34.5%, compared with 26.7% before the employment data was released. The market is betting on interest rate cuts to begin in June, and is fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut in July, while betting on the extent of interest rate cuts throughout 2024 will be 3-4 times. Market Outlook Observation: Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at a hearing in both houses of Congress that it is \"not far\" away from confidence to start cutting interest rates, and February employment data showed signs of continued slowdown, which to a certain extent fueled the market\\'s optimistic interest rate cut expectations. We believe that overall non-farm employment is still relatively stable, and the impact on interest rate cuts may still be limited. At the same time, the United States will release February inflation data on March 12. Due to the unexpected rise in CPI in January, as the last important reference data before the Federal Reserve’s March FOMC meeting, its importance in guiding the path of interest rate cuts is self-evident. , still needs close attention.', 'authorid': UUID('2427af0c-0a21-5003-abde-02bb4ca518e3'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9252306558191776, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '828A37L7A6G3036DT5E5D9A0ENVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:48:35 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '828A37L7A6G3036DT5E5D9A0ENVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('176cb6ce-62f7-515b-b253-55bf46889004'), 'title': 'U.S. Economy: Employment is cooling modestly, the Fed may cut interest rates in June', 'author': 'Ye Bingnan, Liu Zehui', 'orgName': '招银国际金融有限公司', 'orgCode': '80027629', 'orgSName': '招银国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BH15dkqBhtY27l3jRqKifB4=', 'researcher': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000395738', '11000444841'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BH15dkqBhtY27l3jRqKifB4=', 'site': 'CMB International Capital Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招银国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215475_1.pdf?1710170204000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215475_1.pdf?1710170204000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. Economy: Employment is cooling modestly, the Fed may cut interest rates in June', 'originalAuthor': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'originalContent': '美国2月新增非农就业人数继续超预期，但往月下修幅度大于预期。薪资增速有所放缓，失业率小幅抬升。美国就业市场仍然稳健，近一半的新增就业持续来自医疗服务与政府部门等受经济周期影响较小的行业，其他行业就业呈现温和放缓迹象。总体来看，就业整体依然偏强，但失业率小幅抬升与薪资增速放缓令就业市场维持在支持消费稳健扩张，但不至于导致通胀重新反弹的健康区间，美联储对通胀实质性趋近2%的信心不断累积。就业数据发布后，市场强化6月降息的预期，10年国债收益率短暂下跌后最高升至近4.1%。我们预计2Q24可能见到就业和通胀进一步降温，美联储可能在6月开始降息，全年降息1个百分点。预计PCE通胀将从2023年的3.7%降至2024年的2.5%。新增非农就业超预期但往月下修幅度大于预期，就业市场将逐渐降温。2月新增非农就业人数达到27.5万人，大幅高于市场预期的20万人。但近两月的新增就业人数下修16.7万人，1月和12月分别下修12.4和4.3万人至22.9和29万人。私营部门新增22.3万人就业，较1月的17.7万人有所增长。分行业来看，商品生产新增就业1.9万人，服务业新增就业20.4万，政府部门新增就业5.2万人。商品生产中，建筑业增加了2.3万人，但制造业共计减少了4千人。服务业就业保持强劲扩展，医疗保健与社会救助以及休闲与酒店业分别新增就业9.1和5.8万人。1个月后就业扩散指数从61.8%增加至62.6%，说明就业增长在更加广泛的行业中呈现。每周工时上升0.1至34.3小时。非农私人企业薪资增速有所回落，平均时薪环比增速从1月的0.52%降至0.14%，同比增速从4.4%小幅下降至4.3%，仍显著高于2%通胀目标隐含的3.5%的合宜薪资增速（假设劳动生产率增速1.5%）。由于工作时长增加和时薪延续增长，家庭收入增长继续跑赢通胀，支撑美国消费韧性。美国就业市场仍然稳健，但近一半的新增就业持续来自医疗服务与政府部门等受经济降温影响较小的行业，其他行业就业呈现温和放缓迹象。展望未来，随着美联储紧缩政策的滞后效应逐渐显现，就业市场将有所降温，新增非农就业与薪资增速将逐步放缓。失业率小幅上升，持续失业金申请人数不断增加。美国2月失业率从1月的3.7%小幅提高至3.9%，显示劳动市场的放缓趋势。劳动参与率连续3月保持在62.5%，其中16-24岁劳动参与率下降0.4个百分点至55.9%，疫情后迟迟未恢复的55岁以上��动参与率保持在38.5%。1月最后一周的初次申请失业金人数保持在21.7万人，过去四周移动平均值仍在历史低位。持续领取失业金人数不断增加达到190.6万人，与过去四周移动平均均为21年末以来最高。美国企业裁员水平仍在历史低位，但招工节奏正在不断放缓。就业数据支持美联储降息讨论，或在6月开始降息。美联储票委从1月的强调需要确定通胀稳定回到2%再降息到近期开始密集谈论合适降息时间，显示美联储态度转向。总体来看，就业整体依然偏强，但小幅抬升的失业率与放缓的薪资增速使就业市场维持在支持消费稳健扩张但又不导致通胀重新反弹的健康区间。美联储启动降息周期的条件是核心PCE通胀进一步下降和失业率进一步上升，预计2Q24可能见到经济降温的数据拐点。我们预计美联储可能在6月开始降息，全年降息幅度可能为1个百分点。', 'content': \"The number of new non-farm payroll jobs in the United States in February continued to exceed expectations, but the downward revision in previous months was larger than expected. Wage growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has increased slightly. The U.S. job market remains robust, with nearly half of new jobs continuing to come from industries less affected by the economic cycle, such as medical services and government sectors, while employment in other industries shows signs of a mild slowdown. Overall, employment is still relatively strong, but the slight increase in the unemployment rate and the slowdown in wage growth have kept the job market in a healthy range that supports the steady expansion of consumption but will not cause inflation to rebound again. The Federal Reserve's view on inflation is substantially approaching 2 % confidence continues to accumulate. After the employment data was released, the market strengthened expectations for a June interest rate cut, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield briefly fell to a maximum of nearly 4.1%. We expect to see further cooling in employment and inflation in 2Q24, and the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates in June, cutting interest rates by 1 percentage point throughout the year. PCE inflation is expected to fall from 3.7% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024. New non-agricultural employment exceeded expectations, but the downward revision in previous months was larger than expected, indicating that the job market will gradually cool down. The number of new non-farm jobs in February reached 275,000, significantly higher than market expectations of 200,000. However, the number of new jobs in the past two months was revised down by 167,000, and in January and December it was revised down by 124,000 and 43,000 to 229,000 and 290,000, respectively. The private sector added 223,000 jobs, up from 177,000 in January. In terms of industries, 19,000 new jobs were created in commodity production, 204,000 new jobs were created in the service industry, and 52,000 new jobs were created in government departments. In the production of goods, the construction industry increased by 23,000 people, but the manufacturing industry decreased by 4,000 people in total. Employment in the service industry maintained strong expansion, with the health care and social assistance and leisure and hotel industries adding 91,000 and 58,000 new jobs respectively. One month later, the employment diffusion index increased from 61.8% to 62.6%, indicating that employment growth occurred in a wider range of industries. Weekly working hours increased by 0.1 to 34.3 hours. The wage growth rate of non-agricultural private enterprises has slowed down, with the month-on-month growth rate of average hourly wages falling from 0.52% in January to 0.14%, and the year-on-year growth rate falling slightly from 4.4% to 4.3%, which is still significantly higher than the 2% inflation target implies. A reasonable wage growth rate of 3.5% (assuming labor productivity growth of 1.5%). As working hours increase and hourly wages continue to rise, household income growth continues to outperform inflation, supporting the resilience of U.S. consumption. The U.S. job market remains solid, but nearly half of new jobs continue to come from industries less affected by the economic cooling, such as medical services and government sectors, while employment in other industries shows signs of a mild slowdown. Looking ahead, as the lagging effects of the Fed's tightening policy gradually emerge, the job market will cool down, and new non-farm employment and wage growth will gradually slow down. The unemployment rate rose slightly, and the number of people applying for continuing unemployment benefits continued to increase. The U.S. unemployment rate increased slightly to 3.9% in February from 3.7% in January, indicating a slowdown in the labor market. The labor participation rate has remained at 62.5% for three consecutive months, with the labor participation rate among those aged 16-24 falling by 0.4 percentage points to 55.9%. The labor participation rate among those aged 55 and above, which has yet to recover after the epidemic, remained at 38.5%. Initial jobless claims in the last week of January remained at 217,000, and the moving average over the past four weeks remains at historically low levels. The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits continues to increase to 1.906 million, which is the highest since the end of 2021 compared with the moving average of the past four weeks. The level of layoffs in U.S. companies is still at a historically low level, but the pace of hiring is slowing down. The employment data supports the Federal Reserve's discussion of interest rate cuts, which may begin in June. The Fed's voting committee went from emphasizing the need to ensure that inflation stabilizes back to 2% before cutting interest rates in January to recently beginning to intensively discuss the appropriate time to cut interest rates, indicating a change in the Fed's attitude. Overall, employment remains strong, but the slightly rising unemployment rate and slowing wage growth keep the job market within a healthy range that supports steady expansion of consumption but does not lead to a rebound in inflation. The conditions for the Fed to start the interest rate cut cycle are a further decline in core PCE inflation and a further increase in the unemployment rate. It is expected that 2Q24 may see an inflection point in economic cooling. We expect that the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates in June, and the rate cut for the whole year may be 1 percentage point.\", 'authorid': UUID('08f97a71-1879-5f33-a1aa-79c7a17d8bf9'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8036630377173424, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'FK2BIC2Q65UTF3OM6CURIU3PHRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:48:38 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'FK2BIC2Q65UTF3OM6CURIU3PHRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f71ae89d-ee8c-51d1-9c07-608a059cfcb2'), 'title': 'Market Liquidity Weekly Report', 'author': 'Xu Wei', 'orgName': '宏信证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000150', 'orgSName': '宏信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BLZBBWYPMUU7oWzbi0TReUQ=', 'researcher': '徐伟', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000234031'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BLZBBWYPMUU7oWzbi0TReUQ=', 'site': 'Horizon Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '宏信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215460_1.pdf?1710166462000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215460_1.pdf?1710166462000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Market Liquidity Weekly Report', 'originalAuthor': '徐伟', 'originalContent': '公开市场操作：2024年3月4日-3月8日，央行公开市场开展逆回购操作投放500亿元，逆回购到期11640亿元，总计实现净回笼11140亿元。本周预计将有500亿元逆回购到期，4810亿元MLF到期。货币市场：截至3月8日，银行间同业拆借加权平均利率较3月1日变动3.55BP至1.85%，质押式回购加权平均利率较3月1日变动1.10BP至1.85%；短期利率方面，隔夜shibor、1周shibor、2周shibor、1个月shibor分别为1.7200%、1.8480%、2.0030%、2.0870%，较3月1日分别变动2.60BP、4.20BP、1.70BP、-0.10BP；中期利率方面，3个月shibor、6个月shibor、9个月shibor、1年shibor分别为2.1600%、2.2070%、2.2470%、2.2600%，较3月1日分别变动-2.20BP、-3.90BP、-2.40BP、-3.00BP。国债市场：截至3月8日，1个月期、3个月期、6个月期、1年期、3年期、5年期、10年期、30年期国债到期收益率分别为1.5307%、1.5819%、1.6641%、1.7525%、2.0906%、2.2089%、2.2825%、2.4335%，较3月1日分别变动8.68BP、-4.61BP、-2.44BP、-3.08BP、-4.99BP、-5.43BP、-8.50BP、-5.80BP。外汇市场：截至3月8日，美元兑人民币中间价较3月1日下行81BP至7.0978；美元兑人民币即期汇率较3月1日下行67BP至7.1918，较中间价高940BP；美元兑离岸人民币即期汇率较3月1日下行91BP至7.2008，较在岸即期汇率高90BP。', 'content': 'Open market operations: From March 4 to March 8, 2024, the central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations in the open market, investing 50 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchases expired at 1,164 billion yuan, achieving a total net withdrawal of 1,114 billion yuan. This week it is expected that 50 billion yuan of reverse repos and 481 billion yuan of MLF will expire. Money market: As of March 8, the weighted average interest rate of inter-bank lending increased by 3.55 BP from March 1 to 1.85%, and the weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase increased by 1.10 BP from March 1 to 1.85%; in terms of short-term interest rates , the overnight shibor, 1-week shibor, 2-week shibor, and 1-month shibor were 1.7200%, 1.8480%, 2.0030%, and 2.0870% respectively, which were 2.60BP, 4.20BP, 1.70BP, and -0.10BP respectively compared with March 1; In terms of mid-term interest rates, the 3-month Shibor, 6-month Shibor, 9-month Shibor, and 1-year Shibor are 2.1600%, 2.2070%, 2.2470%, and 2.2600% respectively, which have changed by -2.20BP and -3.90BP respectively from March 1. , -2.40BP, -3.00BP. Treasury market: As of March 8, the yields to maturity of 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds are respectively 1.5307%, 1.5819%, 1.6641%, 1.7525%, 2.0906%, 2.2089%, 2.2825%, 2.4335%, respectively changed by 8.68BP, -4.61BP, -2.44BP, -3.08BP, -4.99BP, compared with March 1st. -5.43BP, -8.50BP, -5.80BP. Foreign exchange market: As of March 8, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB dropped 81 BP from March 1 to 7.0978; the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB dropped 67 BP from March 1 to 7.1918, which is 940 BP higher than the central parity rate; the US dollar against the offshore The RMB spot exchange rate dropped 91 BP from March 1 to 7.2008, which is 90 BP higher than the onshore spot exchange rate.', 'authorid': UUID('c273a69b-821f-57db-9d79-aac493ef6732'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8976400773972273, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'D83D9839NE43QTVK3VBI00ISIFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:48:40 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'D83D9839NE43QTVK3VBI00ISIFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('182b11e0-cee3-5f52-afc3-6df545a6aa2d'), 'title': 'Macro View: More evidence may be needed to price in job market weakness', 'author': 'Huang Fusheng, Gao Xiaojie', 'orgName': '中邮证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80036717', 'orgSName': '中邮证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BD6GmQ4GUEkmc6eBEdBGj0w=', 'researcher': '黄付生,高晓洁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172600', '11000460131'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BD6GmQ4GUEkmc6eBEdBGj0w=', 'site': 'China Post Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中邮证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215245_1.pdf?1710164335000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626215245_1.pdf?1710164335000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro View: More evidence may be needed to price in job market weakness', 'originalAuthor': '黄付生,高晓洁', 'originalContent': '核心观点总体来说， 2 月美国的非农就业数据并不是一份“降息交易者”渴望的完美线索，尽管失业率、失业者结构和薪资增速支持更快的降息节奏，但新增就业人数、工作时长以及兼职人数却与前者给出的指引相左。 数据发布后，期货市场显示的 6 月降息的概率小幅提高，但我们认为定价就业市场的走弱或需要更多的证据。当前美国金融条件仍偏宽松，经济基本面较为健康，早降息的“好处”远小于二次通胀的“坏处”，在这样的情况下我们倾向于认为高利率水平维持的时间或超出市场预期。在就业报告内部数据指向矛盾以及美国商业银行工商业贷款增速触底回升的背景下，投资者继续定价他们愿意看到的结果：数据发布后美债收益率走低，美元走弱，黄金继续冲高。 而短暂脱离这样的惯性，警惕高利率的风险或许是当前更理性的思考。风险提示：美国就业市场超预期走弱；美联储降息节奏快于预期； 美国物价水平超预期回落；金融风险事件', 'content': 'Core Viewpoint Overall, February’s U.S. non-farm payrolls data is not the perfect clue that “interest rate cut traders” crave. Although the unemployment rate, the structure of the unemployed and wage growth support a faster pace of interest rate cuts, the number of new jobs The number of people, working hours and number of part-time workers are contrary to the guidance given by the former. Futures markets are pointing to a slight increase in the probability of a rate cut in June following the release of the data, but we believe more evidence may be needed to price in a weakening job market. At present, financial conditions in the United States are still relatively loose, the economic fundamentals are relatively healthy, and the \"benefits\" of an early interest rate cut are far less than the \"disadvantages\" of secondary inflation. Under such circumstances, we tend to believe that high interest rates may be maintained for longer than market expectations. Against the background of contradictory data within the employment report and the bottoming out of industrial and commercial loan growth by U.S. commercial banks, investors continue to price in the outcome they are willing to see: U.S. bond yields lower after the release of the data, the U.S. dollar weakens, and gold continues to rise. . To temporarily break away from such inertia and be wary of the risk of high interest rates may be a more rational thinking at the moment. Risk warning: The U.S. job market weakened more than expected; the Federal Reserve cut interest rates faster than expected; U.S. price levels fell more than expected; financial risk events', 'authorid': UUID('0c8defe7-9c05-5154-9a77-4cc49fb745c4'), 'sentimentScore': 0.11483877897262573, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'HL5PSHLLGAM4E3SC480759A203VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:48:43 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'HL5PSHLLGAM4E3SC480759A203VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5063ec3d-c7cf-550b-9448-23cb93d6adf9'), 'title': 'FICC & Asset Allocation Weekly Observation: The U.S. dollar interest rate curve is bullish and the international gold price reaches a new high', 'author': 'Li Pei, Xie Jianbin', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BC1bqQqsnaBp5ssAbDAkPso=', 'researcher': '李沛,谢建斌', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000337631', '11000192027'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BC1bqQqsnaBp5ssAbDAkPso=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626213915_1.pdf?1710163577000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626213915_1.pdf?1710163577000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'FICC & Asset Allocation Weekly Observation: The U.S. dollar interest rate curve is bullish and the international gold price reaches a new high', 'originalAuthor': '李沛,谢建斌', 'originalContent': '投资要点曲线牛平，利率依然交易“资产荒”。本周利率整体先下后上。周三午后央行行长潘功胜表示目前我国法定存款准备金率为7%，后续仍有降准空间。叠加债务置换区域范围相关舆情驱动，10Y及30Y国债收益率分别下破2.27%与2.45%，续创新低，较前一周周五下行近10bp。7Y-10Y利率一度倒挂。周四及周五受止盈需求、出口数据超预期及超长债监管舆情因素扰动，利率出现调整，10Y及30Y利率分别收于2.28%与2.43%。国债10Y-1Y利差降至53bp，较前一周下行超5bp。据统计局，2月CPI同比+0.7%由负转正，略强于季节性。两会确立中央政府加杠杆思路，再提资金“防空转”。两会视角看利率债供给，中央加杠杆路线确立，赤字规模进一步向中央政府倾斜。政府预算工作报告设立2024年赤字率为3%，赤字规模为4.06万亿元，其中中央赤字规模为3.34万亿元，占比为82.26%。其中特别万亿国债不纳入赤字管理。考虑5%的GDP增长目标及3%的CPI目标，以及未来每年“特别国债”的接续，两会政策的落地力度整体在预期范围内。二季度供给预期或构成短期扰动，但考虑地产景气收敛下的经济动能转型及下半年更为货币政策宽松可期，调整后债市将重新迎来配置窗口。二月央行在稳地产、稳汇率、防空转和稳息差中寻求平衡，MLF利率并未调降。当前资金利率水平仍然不低，后续资金利率能否顺畅下行需要关注3月MLF利率落地。金融、避险、商品属性共振，金价创历史新高。本周国际黄金价格上行超4%，周五COMEX黄金期货报收2186美元/盎司附近。2月下旬以来，金价的上行主要源于：（1）避险需求利多金价。纽约社区银行由于商业地产风险持续暴露，股价自2024年2月以来已下降近65%。3月7日，国际评级机构穆迪表示，已将其对纽约社区银行的评级审查方向从降级审查改为升级审查。此外，2023年为全球选举大年，美国、欧洲及俄罗斯等主要国家均有选举进行，地缘政治博弈催生避险需求支撑金价走高。（2）美债利率回落，金融属性提振金价。黄金作为不生息资产，其持有主要收益源于资本利得。当美债市场利率下行时，持有黄金的机会成本将下降，投资黄金的吸引力将上行。受近期鲍威尔中性偏鸽表态及银行风险事件影响，10Y美债利率自3月22日4.33%回落24bp至3月7日的4.09%，对金价形成提振。（3）商品属性及实物需求亦形成支撑。2024年2月末，中国央行黄金储备7258万盎司，环比增39万盎司，已为央行连续第16个月增持黄金储备。金价的强劲使黄金饰品实物消费需求热度不减。展望而言，2024H2伴随联储降息正式落地，金价仍有望续创新高。美元回落，美联储6月开启降息概率仍近7成。美国2月非农就业人口增加27.5万人，高于预期。2月美国失业率升至3.9%，结束连续3个月3.7%低位。当前美国潜在风险主要源于商业银行，回顾2023年3月硅谷银行SVB暴雷后，美联储启用BTFP流动性管理工具1650亿美元将于3月11日到期，指向中小银行或需被动提升存款利率吸储，也使商业银行失去“BTFP-准备金余额IORB”近50bp的潜在套利空间。当前美联储ONRRP使用规模不足5000亿美元，较2022年高位2.5万亿美元的水平大幅回落。指向美国市场流动性存在一定压力。据CMEFedWatch，市场预期6月和7月联储开启首次降息概率分别为73.4%与91.5%。日央行YCC退出预期有所升温，日元小幅升值。本周日元小幅升值超2%，美元兑日元报收147。3月7日，据日本厚生劳动省数据，1月日本名义现金收入同比增2%，高于前值0.8%及市场预期值1.2%。剔除物价影响后的实际薪资降0.6%，降幅小于预期，也是一年来的最低降幅。3月7日10Y日债利率升2bp至0.74%。后续仍然关注春斗结果。物价和薪资是否延续正循环将成为3月19日日央行利率决议的重要参考。风险提示：美国通胀回落速度不及预期、海外银行业危机蔓延、国际地缘摩擦超预期。', 'content': 'The investment point curve is flat, and interest rates are still trading in an \"asset shortage\". This week, interest rates generally fell first and then rose. On Wednesday afternoon, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the Central Bank, said that my country\\'s statutory deposit reserve ratio is currently 7%, and there is still room for subsequent RRR cuts. Driven by public opinion related to the debt replacement area, the yields of 10Y and 30Y government bonds fell below 2.27% and 2.45% respectively, continuing to hit new lows and falling by nearly 10bp from Friday the previous week. Interest rates were once upside down between 7Y and 10Y. On Thursday and Friday, interest rates were adjusted due to factors such as profit-stop demands, higher-than-expected export data and public opinion on ultra-long-term debt supervision. The 10Y and 30Y interest rates closed at 2.28% and 2.43% respectively. The interest rate spread of 10Y-1Y government bonds dropped to 53bp, a decrease of more than 5bp from the previous week. According to the Bureau of Statistics, the CPI in February turned from negative to positive at +0.7% year-on-year, which is slightly stronger than seasonal. The Two Sessions established the central government’s idea of \\u200b\\u200bincreasing leverage, and then mentioned the “anti-idling” of funds. Looking at the supply of interest rate bonds from the perspective of the two sessions, the central government’s policy of increasing leverage has been established, and the scale of the deficit is further tilted towards the central government. The government budget work report sets a deficit rate of 3% in 2024, with a deficit scale of 4.06 trillion yuan, of which the central government deficit is 3.34 trillion yuan, accounting for 82.26%. Among them, trillions of national debt are not included in deficit management. Considering the GDP growth target of 5% and the CPI target of 3%, as well as the continuation of \"special national debt\" every year in the future, the implementation of the policies of the two sessions is generally within the expected range. Supply expectations in the second quarter may constitute short-term disturbances, but considering the transformation of economic momentum due to the convergence of the real estate boom and the expectation of looser monetary policy in the second half of the year, the bond market will once again usher in an allocation window after adjustment. In February, the central bank sought a balance between stabilizing real estate, stabilizing exchange rates, preventing idling and stabilizing interest rate differentials, and the MLF interest rate was not lowered. The current funding interest rate level is still not low. Whether the subsequent funding interest rate can decline smoothly depends on the implementation of the MLF interest rate in March. Finance, hedging, and commodity attributes resonated, and the price of gold hit a record high. International gold prices rose by more than 4% this week, with COMEX gold futures closing at around US$2,186 per ounce on Friday. Since late February, the rise in gold prices has been mainly due to: (1) Safe-haven demand has been bullish for gold prices. New York Community Bank\\'s stock price has fallen nearly 65% \\u200b\\u200bsince February 2024 due to continued exposure to commercial real estate risks. On March 7, the international rating agency Moody\\'s stated that it had changed the direction of its rating review of New York Community Bank from a downgrade review to an upgrade review. In addition, 2023 is a global election year, with elections taking place in major countries such as the United States, Europe and Russia. Geopolitical games have generated safe-haven demand to support higher gold prices. (2) U.S. bond interest rates have fallen, and financial attributes have boosted gold prices. As a non-interest-bearing asset, the main income from holding gold comes from capital gains. When U.S. bond market interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold will fall, and the attractiveness of investing in gold will rise. Affected by Powell\\'s recent neutral-to-dovish stance and banking risk events, the 10Y U.S. bond interest rate fell by 24bp from 4.33% on March 22 to 4.09% on March 7, boosting gold prices. (3) Product attributes and physical demand also provide support. At the end of February 2024, the central bank\\'s gold reserves were 72.58 million ounces, an increase of 390,000 ounces from the previous month. This was the 16th consecutive month that the central bank has increased its gold reserves. The strong gold price has continued to increase the demand for physical gold jewelry. Looking forward, with the official implementation of the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate cut in 2024H2, gold prices are still expected to reach new highs. The US dollar has fallen back, and the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in June is still nearly 70%. U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increased by 275,000 in February, higher than expected. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February, ending a three-month low of 3.7%. The current potential risks in the United States mainly originate from commercial banks. Looking back at the Silicon Valley Bank SVB storm in March 2023, the Federal Reserve launched a BTFP liquidity management tool of US$165 billion that will expire on March 11, pointing to the need for small and medium-sized banks to passively increase deposit interest rates. The deposit absorption also caused commercial banks to lose nearly 50bp of potential arbitrage space in \"BTFP - reserve balance IORB\". The current use of ONRRP by the Federal Reserve is less than US$500 billion, which has fallen sharply from the high level of US$2.5 trillion in 2022. Pointing to certain pressure on US market liquidity. According to CMEFedWatch, the market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time in June and July is 73.4% and 91.5% respectively. Expectations for the Bank of Japan\\'s YCC exit have increased, and the yen has appreciated slightly. The yen appreciated slightly by more than 2% this week, with the U.S. dollar closing at 147 against the yen. On March 7, according to data from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Japan\\'s nominal cash income increased by 2% year-on-year in January, which was higher than the previous value of 0.8% and the market expectation of 1.2 %. Actual wages after excluding the impact of prices fell by 0.6%, a smaller than expected decline and the lowest decline in a year. On March 7, the interest rate on 10Y Japanese bonds rose 2bp to 0.74%. We will still pay attention to the result of Chun Dou in the future. Whether prices and wages continue their positive cycle will become an important reference for the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision on March 19. Risk warning: U.S. inflation fell slower than expected, the overseas banking crisis spread, and international geopolitical friction exceeded expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('64a8cfbb-988c-5966-8f69-eb8abdee3337'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9427320100367069, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'BLLNB402C9HPNP0URNMG2E5SJFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:48:46 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'BLLNB402C9HPNP0URNMG2E5SJFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "The read operation timed out\n", - "{'id': UUID('5aee070a-3778-5b8b-b7aa-ec558a0358d3'), 'title': 'China Macroeconomic Monthly Report', 'author': 'Yan Yijin', 'orgName': '致富证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80102269', 'orgSName': '致富证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BII7MS3zVXc68toASnxlyr0=', 'researcher': '阎奕锦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000254034'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BII7MS3zVXc68toASnxlyr0=', 'site': 'CHIEF SECURITIES LIMITED', 'originalSite': '致富证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212773_1.pdf?1710169031000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212773_1.pdf?1710169031000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'China Macroeconomic Monthly Report', 'originalAuthor': '阎奕锦', 'originalContent': '事件：2月，CPI同比上涨0.7%（前值为-0.8%），环比上涨1.0%；PPI同比下降2.7%（前值为-2.5%），环比下降0.2%。主要观点：春节期间消费需求增加、部分地区雨雪天气影响供给和交通运��春节错月等因素的共同作用之下，食品价格和服务价格环比均显著上涨，带动CPI环比涨幅扩大，同比由降转涨。2月，CPI同比上涨0.7%（前值为-0.8%），环比上涨1.0%。核心CPI同比上涨1.2%（前值为0.4%），环比上涨0.5%（往年同期均值为0.15%）。食品价格同比下降0.9%（前值为-5.9%），环比上涨3.3%（往年同期均值为2.4%），涨幅高于往年同期平均水平。春节期间消费需求增加和雨雪天气影响供给，鲜菜、猪肉、水产品和鲜果价格涨幅较大。具体而言，鲜菜价格环比上涨12.7%，同比上涨2.9%；鲜果价格环比上涨4.3%，同比下降4.1%；水产品价格环比上涨6.2%，同比上涨4.1%；畜肉类价格环比上涨3.4%，同比下降2.9%（其中，猪肉价格环比上涨7.2%，同比上涨0.2%）；蛋类价格环比下降2.2%，同比下降5.1%。非食品价格同比上涨1.1%（前值为0.4%），环比上涨0.5%（往年同期均值为0.2%），涨幅大于往年同期平均水平。涨幅较高的原因主要为春节期间出行和文娱消费需求显著增加，飞机票、交通工具租赁费、旅游、电影及演出票价均录得两位数增速的涨幅，带动教育文化娱乐、交通通信价格环比涨幅较大。非食品七个中类价格环比“三升一平三降”。其中，教育文化娱乐、交通和通信、医疗保健价格环比分别上涨1.7%、0.1%、1.6%和0.4%；居住价格环比持平；生活用品及服务、衣着价格环比分别下降0.5%和0.2%；其他用品及服务价格下降0.2%。', 'content': 'Event: In February, CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year (previous value was -0.8%) and 1.0% month-on-month; PPI decreased by 2.7% year-on-year (previous value was -2.5%) and decreased by 0.2% month-on-month. Main point: Due to the combined effects of factors such as increased consumer demand during the Spring Festival, rain and snow weather in some areas affecting supply, and transportation during the Spring Festival, both food prices and service prices increased significantly month-on-month, driving the month-on-month increase in CPI to expand from a year-on-year decrease to Turn up. In February, CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year (previous value was -0.8%) and 1.0% month-on-month. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year (previous value was 0.4%) and month-on-month by 0.5% (the average for the same period in previous years was 0.15%). Food prices fell by 0.9% year-on-year (the previous value was -5.9%) and increased by 3.3% month-on-month (the average for the same period in previous years was 2.4%), which was higher than the average for the same period in previous years. During the Spring Festival, consumer demand increased and rain and snow weather affected supply. The prices of fresh vegetables, pork, aquatic products and fresh fruits increased significantly. Specifically, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 12.7% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year; the price of fresh fruits increased by 4.3% month-on-month and decreased 4.1% year-on-year; the price of aquatic products increased by 6.2% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year; the price of livestock and meat increased by 3.4% month-on-month. A year-on-year decrease of 2.9% (of which pork prices increased by 7.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year); egg prices decreased by 2.2% month-on-month and 5.1% year-on-year. Non-food prices increased by 1.1% year-on-year (the previous value was 0.4%) and 0.5% month-on-month (the average for the same period in previous years was 0.2%), which was greater than the average for the same period in previous years. The reason for the higher increase is mainly due to the significant increase in travel and entertainment consumption demand during the Spring Festival. Air tickets, transportation rental fees, travel, movie and performance ticket prices all recorded double-digit growth rates, driving education, culture, entertainment, transportation Communication prices increased significantly month-on-month. The prices of seven non-food categories increased by three, stayed flat, and fell three times month-on-month. Among them, the prices of education, culture and entertainment, transportation and communications, and medical care increased by 1.7%, 0.1%, 1.6%, and 0.4% respectively month-on-month; the prices of housing remained unchanged month-on-month; the prices of daily necessities and services, and clothing decreased by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively month-on-month; others Prices of supplies and services fell by 0.2%.', 'authorid': UUID('54d1db30-6891-593c-8df0-38025cdcc2be'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7399428933858871, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '1OIF7PLEUSE02UTKKT8FTV7HQFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:48:54 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '1OIF7PLEUSE02UTKKT8FTV7HQFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f4820416-8b49-5c0b-91f3-b0aac02cf5fd'), 'title': 'Comments on the 2024 Government Work Report: Accelerate the development of new productive forces and continue to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds', 'author': 'Yan Yijin', 'orgName': '致富证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80102269', 'orgSName': '致富证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BADx0WQGEs8Di1Nv/yB1FFA=', 'researcher': '阎奕锦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000254034'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BADx0WQGEs8Di1Nv/yB1FFA=', 'site': 'CHIEF SECURITIES LIMITED', 'originalSite': '致富证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212771_1.pdf?1710170914000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212771_1.pdf?1710170914000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on the 2024 Government Work Report: Accelerate the development of new productive forces and continue to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds', 'originalAuthor': '阎奕锦', 'originalContent': '事项：2024年3月5日，第十四届全国人民代表大会第二次会议在北京召开，李强总理作《政府工作报告》，对2023年我国经济社会发展取得的重大成就和主要工作进行回顾，明确今年经济社会发展主要目标和宏观政策取向，并对重点工作进行部署。2024年3月6日，财政部网站上发布了《关于2023年中央和地方预算执行情况与2024年中央和地方预算草案的报告（摘要）》。主要观点：经济：今年的经济形势定位和目标制定均偏正向——今年我国发展面临的环境仍是战略机遇和风险挑战并存，有利条件强于不利因素。政府工作报告对当前发展面临的困难和挑战描述为“世界经济增长动能不足，地区热点问题频发，外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升。我国经济持续回升向好的基础还不稳固，有效需求不足，部分行业产能过剩，社会预期偏弱，风险隐患仍然较多，国内大循环存在堵点，国际循环存在干扰。部分中小企业经营困难。就业总量压力和结构性矛盾并存，公共服务仍有不少短板。一些地方基层财力比较紧张。科技创新能力还不强。重点领域改革仍有不少硬骨头要啃。生态环境保护治理任重道远。安全生产的薄弱环节不容忽视。政府工作存在不足，形式主义、官僚主义现象仍较突出，一些改革发展举措落实不到位。有的干部缺乏担当实干精神，消极避责、做表面文章。一些领域腐败问题仍然多发。”我国的有利条件为“我国具有显著的制度优势、超大规模市场的需求优势、产业体系完备的供给优势、高素质劳动者众多的人才优势，科技创新能力在持续提升，新产业、新模式、新动能在加快壮大，发展内生动力在不断积聚，经济回升向好、长期向好的基本趋势没有改变也不会改变”。总体定性为“有利条件强于不利因素”。经济增速目标设置在5%左右，与上年相同，但实现难度较上年提升。将今年的GDP增速目标值设置在5%左右，为较高基数上的中高速增长，主要是出于稳就业保民生防风险的考虑：1、一方面，今年高校毕业生将超过1170万人，再创历史新高，再加上农民工、转业军人等群体的新增就业需求，今年就业压力依然较大，因此政府报告提出今年城镇新增就业1200万人以上，目标高于上年的1200万人左右；2、经济增长与就业存在关联带动效应，我国当前经济增长1个百分点可带动200多万人就业。以上年为例，GDP增长5.2%，城镇新增就业1244万人。从二者的关系看，今年1200万以上的新增就业目标需要5.0%以上的经济增速。3、设置该增速目标值也是为了与“十四五”规划和基本实现现代化的目标要求相衔接。但今年5%的增速目标要在上年5.2%的基础上实现，在当前的国际国内经济金融形势下难度高于上年。CPI涨幅目标值设置在3%左右，与上年相同。经过测算，我们认为今年CPI走势呈现“前低后高，逐渐回升”的走势，全年通胀压力不大，设置3%的CPI目标，主要是维持之前的目标值的连续性。财政政策：积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效。今年开始连续发行超长期特别国债。赤字率为3.0%，与上年持平。今年赤字金额4.06万亿元，较上年预算增加1,800亿元。财政收入增长、特定国有金融机构和专营机构依法上缴近年结存利润、调入预算稳定基金等因素使可用财力增加，全国一般公共预算支出28.5万亿元，较上年高1.1万亿元。从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。超长���意味着为30年期或50年期，特别国债意味着不计入赤字率，体现出财政政策作用于当前的同时，也兼顾长远发展。安排地方政府专项债3.9万亿元，比上年增加1000亿元。受土地出让收入下降对地方政府基金收入的持续性影响，今年政府性基金预算收入依然较低，较上年仅增长0.1%至7.08万亿元。但预算支出增速较快，增长18.6%至12.0万亿元，二者之间的差额靠上年结转收入391.87亿元、超长期特别国债收入10000亿元、地方政府专项债务收入39000亿元三项补充。货币政策：稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效。保持流动性合理充裕，社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增速和价格水平预期目标相匹配。加强总量和结构双重调节，盘活存量、提升效能，加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度。促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降。畅通货币政策传导机制，避免资金沉淀空转。加快发展新质生产力居于政府工作报告2024年十大工作任务的首位，也是今年两会的热词。新质生产力是创新起主导作用，摆脱传统经济增长方式、生产力发展路径，具有高科技、高效能、高质量特征，符合新发展理念的先进生产力质态。它由技术革命性突破、生产要素创新性配置、产业深度转型升级而催生。以劳动者、劳动资料、劳动对象及其优化组合的跃升为基本内涵。以全要素生产率大幅提升为核心标志。它的特点是创新，关键在质优，本质是先进生产力。把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来，更好统筹消费和投资，增强对经济增长的拉动力。积极扩大有效投资，投资重心向科技民生设备更新转移，传统基建投资分量淡化：重点支持科技创新、新型基础设施、节能减排降碳，加强民生等经济社会薄弱领域补短板，推进防洪排涝抗灾基础设施建设，推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造，加快实施“十四五”规划重大工程项目。促进消费稳定增长，政策标本兼顾。“标”的方面，推动新型消费、传统消费、服务消费等各类消费。“本”的方面，从增加收入、优化供给、减少限制性措施等方面综合施策，激发消费潜能。对于消费而言，要注意三点：一、鼓励和推动消费品以旧换新等治“标”政策只是通过补贴等政策把部分靠后的置换需求前置，集中置换期过后置换需求会快速将至正常水平之下，对总体需求拉动较为有限。二、消费结构正处于从传统商品消费向新型消费和服务消费转变的阶段，新型消费和服务消费需求和实际消费金额均呈增加走势，政策要随势而动，做好助力。但与此同时，居民讲究性价比、消费降级等倾向也越发凸显；以春节假期出游消费为例，出行人次创新高，显著高于疫情前的2019年，但人均消费金额增速却为负值。三、增加收入、优化供给等治“本”政策对消费的拉动效果更为显著，但这些政策产生作用所需时间较长。房地产：强调处置风险隐患和建立风险防控长效机制。优化房地产政策，对不同所有制房地产企业合理融资需求要一视同仁给予支持，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。适应新型城镇化发展趋势和房地产市场供求关系变化，加快构建房地产发展新模式。加大保障性住房建设和供给，完善商品房相关基础性制度，满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求。坚持房住不炒定位，完善“市场+保障”住房供应体系。市场满足多层次多样化住房需求，政府保障基本住房需求。政府继续做好规划建设保障性住房，推进“平急两用”公共基础设施和城中村改造三大项目，今年再改造5万个老旧小区。其他：对科教兴国、深化改革、对外开放、乡村振兴、城乡融合和区域协调发展、生态文明建设、民生等诸领域均进行了部署。', 'content': '事项：2024年3月5日，第十四届全国人民代表大会第二次会议在北京召开，李强总理作《政府工作报告》，对2023年我国经济社会发展取得的重大成就和主要工作进行回顾，明确今年经济社会发展主要目标和宏观政策取向，并对重点工作进行部署。2024年3月6日，财政部网站上发布了《关于2023年中央和地方预算执行情况与2024年中央和地方预算草案的报告（摘要）》。主要观点：经济：今年的经济形势定位和目标制定均偏正向——今年我国发展面临的环境仍是战略机遇和风险挑战并存，有利条件强于不利因素。政府工作报告对当前发展面临的困难和挑战描述为“世界经济增长动能不足，地区热点问题频发，外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升。我国经济持续回升向好的基础还不稳固，有效需求不足，部分行业产能过剩，社会预期偏弱，风险隐患仍然较多，国内大循环存在堵点，国际循环存在干扰。部分中小企业经营困难。就业总量压力和结构性矛盾并存，公共服务仍有不少短板。一些地方基层财力比较紧张。科技创新能力还不强。重点领域改革仍有不少硬骨头要啃。生态环境保护治理任重道远。安全生产的薄弱环节不容忽视。政府工作存在不足，形式主义、官僚主义现象仍较突出，一些改革发展举措落实不到位。有的干部缺乏担当实干精神，消极避责、做表面文章。一些领域腐败问题仍然多发。”我国的有利条件为“我国具有显著的制度优势、超大规模市场的需求优势、产业体系完备的供给优势、高素质劳动者众多的人才优势，科技创新能力在持续提升，新产业、新模式、新动能在加快壮大，发展内生动力在不断积聚，经济回升向好、长期向好的基本趋势没有改变也不会改变”。总体定性为“有利条件强于不利因素”。经济增速目标设置在5%左右，与上年相同，但实现难度较上年提升。将今年的GDP增速目标值设置在5%左右，为较高基数上的中高速增长，主要是出于稳就业保民生防风险的考虑：1、一方面，今年高校毕业生将超过1170万人，再创历史新高，再加上农民工、转业军人等群体的新增就业需求，今年就业压力依然较大，因此政府报告提出今年城镇新增就业1200万人以上，目标高于上年的1200万人左右；2、经济增长与就业存在关联带动效应，我国当前经济增长1个百分点可带动200多万人就业。以上年为例，GDP增长5.2%，城镇新增就业1244万人。从二者的关系看，今年1200万以上的新增就业目标需要5.0%以上的经济增速。3、设置该增速目标值也是为了与“十四五”规划和基本实现现代化的目标要求相衔接。但今年5%的增速目标要在上年5.2%的基础上实现，在当前的国际国内经济金融形势下难度高于上年。CPI涨幅目标值设置在3%左右，与上年相同。经过测算，我们认为今年CPI走势呈现“前低后高，逐渐回升”的走势，全年通胀压力不大，设置3%的CPI目标，主要是维持之前的目标值的连续性。财政政策：积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效。今年开始连续发行超长期特别国债。赤字率为3.0%，与上年持平。今年赤字金额4.06万亿元，较上年预算增加1,800亿元。财政收入增长、特定国有金融机构和专营机构依法上缴近年结存利润、调入预算稳定基金等因素使可用财力增加，全国一般公共预算支出28.5万亿元，较上年高1.1万亿元。从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。超长期意味着为30年期或50年期，特别国债意味着不计入赤字率，体现出财政政策作用于当前的同时，也兼顾长远发展。安排地方政府专项债3.9万亿元，比上年增加1000亿元。受土地出让收入下降对地方政府基金收入的持续性影响，今年政府性基金预算收入依然较低，较上年仅增长0.1%至7.08万亿元。但预算支出增速较快，增长18.6%至12.0万亿元，二者之间的差额靠上年结转收入391.87亿元、超长期特别国债收入10000亿元、地方政府专项债务收入39000亿元三项补充。货币政策：稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效。保持流动性合理充裕，社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增速和价格水平预期目标相匹配。加强总量和结构双重调节，盘活存量、提升效能，加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度。促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降。畅通货币政策传导机制，避免资金沉淀空转。加快发展新质生产力居于政府工作报告2024年十大工作任务的首位，也是今年两会的热词。新质生产力是创新起主导作用，摆脱传统经济增长方式、生产力发展路径，具有高科技、高效能、高质量特征，符合新发展理念的先进生产力质态。它由技术革命性突破、生产要素创新性配置、产业深度转型升级而催生。以劳动者、劳动资料、劳动对象及其优化组合的跃升为基本内涵。以全要素生产率大幅提升为核心标志。它的特点是创新，关键在质优，本质是先进生产力。把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来，更好统筹消费和投资，增强对经济增长的拉动力。积极扩大有效投资，投资重心向科技民生设备更新转移，传统基建投资分量淡化：重点支持科技创新、新型基础设施、节能减排降碳，加强民生等经济社会薄弱领域补短板，推进防洪排涝抗灾基础���施建设，推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造，加快实施“十四五”规划重大工程项目。促进消费稳定增长，政策标本兼顾。“标”的方面，推动新型消费、传统消费、服务消费等各类消费。“本”的方面，从增加收入、优化供给、减少限制性措施等方面综合施策，激发消费潜能。对于消费而言，要注意三点：一、鼓励和推动消费品以旧换新等治“标”政策只是通过补贴等政策把部分靠后的置换需求前置，集中置换期过后置换需求会快速将至正常水平之下，对总体需求拉动较为有限。二、消费结构正处于从传统商品消费向新型消费和服务消费转变的阶段，新型消费和服务消费需求和实际消费金额均呈增加走势，政策要随势而动，做好助力。但与此同时，居民讲究性价比、消费降级等倾向也越发凸显；以春节假期出游消费为例，出行人次创新高，显著高于疫情前的2019年，但人均消费金额增速却为负值。三、增加收入、优化供给等治“本”政策对消费的拉动效果更为显著，但这些政策产生作用所需时间较长。房地产：强调处置风险隐患和建立风险防控长效机制。优化房地产政策，对不同所有制房地产企业合理融资需求要一视同仁给予支持，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。适应新型城镇化发展趋势和房地产市场供求关系变化，加快构建房地产发展新模式。加大保障性住房建设和供给，完善商品房相关基础性制度，满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求。坚持房住不炒定位，完善“市场+保障”住房供应体系。市场满足多层次多样化住房需求，政府保障基本住房需求。政府继续做好规划建设保障性住房，推进“平急两用”公共基础设施和城中村改造三大项目，今年再改造5万个老旧小区。其他：对科教兴国、深化改革、对外开放、乡村振兴、城乡融合和区域协调发展、生态文明建设、民生等诸领域均进行了部署。', 'authorid': UUID('54d1db30-6891-593c-8df0-38025cdcc2be'), 'sentimentScore': 0.08706098049879074, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'N2T99T48K095ISCFK1CANMEIQNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:48:59 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'N2T99T48K095ISCFK1CANMEIQNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d68e2a65-527e-5eda-88c9-5df752a1c8ec'), 'title': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm payrolls data in February: Unemployment rate rises but new non-farm payrolls remain high', 'author': 'Fan Lei, Wang Boqun', 'orgName': '国联证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000028', 'orgSName': '国联证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BJvvMEiKW5DpiqhNfNAVW7E=', 'researcher': '樊磊,王博群', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000175009', '11000457032'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BJvvMEiKW5DpiqhNfNAVW7E=', 'site': 'Guolian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212757_1.pdf?1710154445000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212757_1.pdf?1710154445000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm payrolls data in February: Unemployment rate rises but new non-farm payrolls remain high', 'originalAuthor': '樊磊,王博群', 'originalContent': '事件：失业率上升到3.9%，显示就业市场走弱；但同时新增非农27.5万人，高于多数分析师的预期。但从时薪的环比超预期下降可能意味着整体而言就业市场略弱于市场预期。股票、债券市场对此都有反映，但是程度非常温和。美联储2024年3月会议降息的概率不到5%，期货市场预期的6月降息概率略超过70%。但我们认为单月数据的意义有限，一些通胀的因素尚难说完全缓解，6月是否能降息还存在较大不确定性。矛盾的两个调查，真实状况或在中间失业率上升到3.9%，显示就业市场走弱，但同时新增非农27.5万人，高于多数分析师的预期。来自于家庭调查的失业率数据和来自于雇主调查的新增非农数据略有矛盾。考虑到新增非农最近1年经常下修，我们认为就业市场的真实状态或没有新增非农显示的那么强，但可能也不如失业率上升显示的那么弱，可能真实的状态在中间。根据Sahm法则失业率上升让衰退的可能增大了一些。工资通胀的压力缓解就业数据中最大的好消息是时薪环比增速大幅下降到0.14%，同比下降到4.3%，这对于缓解美联储的通胀担忧来讲是���利的。同时时薪的走弱和就业市场整体走弱的大趋势也是吻合的。分行业看共8个行业时薪跑赢通胀，在13个行业中超过半数。2月每周工作时间34.3小时，较1月34.2小时上升。非农就业新增又超预期，仅2个行业负增长2月新增非农又超预期，高于多数分析师预测，12月数据二次修正后仍然上修，但1月份数据显著下修。雇主调查和家庭调查的差异较大，从历史的数据上看，只有约7%的月份雇主调查和家庭调查的新增非农差异比2月的差异更大。目前来看，同比新增就业这个角度衡量的劳动力市场的热度仍然略高于疫情前的水平。如果对比2019年的情况，同比增长1.8%的非农就业并不弱，2019年2月的同比只有1.4%。风险提示：美联储鹰派超预期，通货膨胀超预期。', 'content': \"Event: The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, indicating a weakening job market; but at the same time, 275,000 new non-agricultural jobs were added, which was higher than most analysts' expectations. However, a larger-than-expected decline in hourly wages may mean that the overall job market is slightly weaker than market expectations. The stock and bond markets have reflected this, but to a very mild extent. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its March 2024 meeting is less than 5%, and the futures market expects a slightly over 70% probability of a rate cut in June. However, we believe that the significance of single-month data is limited. It is difficult to say that some inflationary factors have been completely alleviated. There is still great uncertainty about whether interest rates can be cut in June. The two contradictory surveys suggest that the real unemployment rate may have risen to 3.9%, showing a weakening job market, but at the same time, 275,000 new non-agricultural workers were added, higher than most analysts expected. The unemployment rate data from the household survey and the new non-farm payroll data from the employer survey are slightly contradictory. Considering that the new non-farm payrolls have been frequently revised downwards in the past year, we believe that the true state of the job market may not be as strong as the new non-farm payrolls indicate, but it may not be as weak as the rising unemployment rate indicates. The real state may be in the middle. According to Sahm's law, rising unemployment makes a recession more likely. Pressure on wage inflation eased The biggest good news in the employment data is that hourly wage growth dropped sharply to 0.14% month-on-month and 4.3% year-on-year, which is beneficial to alleviating the Federal Reserve's inflation concerns. At the same time, the weakening of hourly wages is consistent with the general trend of the overall weakening of the job market. Broken down by industry, hourly wages in eight industries outperformed inflation, accounting for more than half of the 13 industries. Weekly working hours in February were 34.3 hours, up from 34.2 hours in January. The increase in non-agricultural employment exceeded expectations again. Only two industries had negative growth. New non-agricultural employment in February exceeded expectations and was higher than most analysts' predictions. The December data was still revised upward after the second revision, but the January data was significantly revised down. The difference between the employer survey and the household survey is relatively large. From a historical perspective, only about 7% of the months have a greater difference in new non-farm payrolls than the difference in February. At present, the labor market's enthusiasm, measured from the perspective of year-on-year new employment, is still slightly higher than the pre-epidemic level. If compared with the situation in 2019, the non-agricultural employment growth of 1.8% year-on-year is not weak. The year-on-year growth in February 2019 was only 1.4%. Risk warning: The Fed is more hawkish than expected, and inflation exceeds expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('4786395a-b6a8-5613-93cb-532d55daeddb'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9410577286034822, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '2DHI0GFJBCQ00J7NIRV4U6VOFBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:49:02 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '2DHI0GFJBCQ00J7NIRV4U6VOFBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2d05ac4d-dbd5-56ca-8eab-8e36882be17b'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: Ministries and commissions intensively release positive signals, overseas geopolitics causes fluctuations', 'author': 'Ye Fan, Wang Runmeng, Liu Yanhong', 'orgName': '西南证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000296', 'orgSName': '西南证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BI3EBGMMKdTGeOf8ej25hwE=', 'researcher': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000263735', '11000418732', '11000440469'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BI3EBGMMKdTGeOf8ej25hwE=', 'site': 'Southwest Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '西南证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212514_1.pdf?1710154224000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212514_1.pdf?1710154224000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: Ministries and commissions intensively release positive signals, overseas geopolitics causes fluctuations', 'originalAuthor': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'originalContent': '摘要一周大事记国内：经济主题记者会释放重大信号，外汇储备小幅升高。3月5日，2月财新服务业PMI录得52.5%，较1月回落0.2个百分点，显示服务业仍维持扩张但势头放缓，财新制造业和服务业PMI的走势与官方制造业和服务业PMI走势再度背离；6日，十四届全国人大二次会议经济主题记者会召开，发改委、财政部、商务部、央行和证监会领导发言，就经济发展、财政货币、消费和资本市场等方面表态，释放利好信号；5日，国家发改委发布《2024年国民经济和社会发展计划的主要任务》提出，加强重大经济金融风险防控，牢牢守住不发生系统性风险的底线，以科技创新引领现代化产业体系建设，加快形成新质生产力；7日，国家外管局数据显示，2月外汇储备小幅升高，央行连续第16个月增持黄金，地缘政治风险不断，全球央行购金潮在今年可能仍将有所延续，支撑黄金中长期中枢价格；7日，财政部公开了《2023年中国财政政策执行情况报告》，认为去年财政政策有力促进我国经济运行向好和高质量发展，并展望2024年财政政策。海外：红海局势再度升温，超级星期二结果出炉。当地时间3月3日，OPEC+成员国达成协议，同意延期额外自愿减产的协议至二季度，支持石油市场的稳定与平衡，预计短期国际油价在供需两端因素共同作用下，呈震荡偏强走势；当地时间4日，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，预计美联储将在今年第三季度首次降息，6日和7日，鲍威尔在国会两院听证会老调重弹，基于目前美国经济数据变化，我们仍维持美联储将在年中左右开始降息；5日数据显示，2月日本东京CPI同比上涨2.6%，高于市场预期，体现国内通胀目前仍具有持续性，日本是否摆脱通缩困境还需要进一步确认工资和物价之间的良性循环，后续建议关注3月份日本春季劳资谈判的结果以及服务价格变化等；5日，美国“超级星期二”，15个州和一个海外领地美属萨摩亚将同时举行初选，拜登和特朗普赢得大部分州的初选；5日，欧盟1月PPI同比下降8.6%，降幅大于预期，能源价格是导致PPI继续下滑的主因，欧洲经济偏疲弱，叠加通胀放缓，预计欧央行或在上半年进行降息。高频数据：上游：本周布伦特原油现货均价、铁矿石价格、阴极铜价周环比升1.2%、落0.9%、升0.34%；中游：螺纹钢价格周环比下降2.06%，水泥价格指数周环比下降0.04%，秦皇岛港动力煤平仓价周环比落0.63%；下游：商品房成交面积周环比回落32.72%，2月第五周全国乘用车市场日均零售5.8万辆；物价：蔬菜价格周环比回落3.13%，猪肉价格回落1.36%。下周重点关注：中国2月M2年率、新增人民币贷款（周一），美国2月CPI年率（周二）；EIA公布月度短期能源展望报告（周三）；美国2月PPI年率、零售销售月率（周四）；美国2月工业产出月率、进口物价指数、3月密歇根大学消费者信心指数（周五）。风险提示：国内经济复苏不及预期，海外经济超预期下行。', 'content': 'Summary of major domestic events of the week: The economic-themed press conference released major signals, and foreign exchange reserves increased slightly. On March 5, the Caixin Service Industry PMI in February recorded 52.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from January, showing that the service industry still maintained expansion but the momentum was slowing down. The trends of Caixin Manufacturing and Service Industry PMI were in line with the official manufacturing industry and the service industry PMI trend deviated again; on the 6th, the economic theme press conference of the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress was held. Leaders of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the Central Bank and the China Securities Regulatory Commission spoke on economic development, fiscal currency, consumption and capital. The market and other aspects expressed their opinions and released positive signals; on the 5th, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the \"Main Tasks of the National Economic and Social Development Plan for 2024\" and proposed to strengthen the prevention and control of major economic and financial risks, firmly guard the bottom line of no systemic risks, and Technological innovation leads the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerates the formation of new productive forces; on the 7th, data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that foreign exchange reserves increased slightly in February, and the central bank increased its gold holdings for the 16th consecutive month. Geopolitical risks continue, and global central bank purchases The gold tide may continue this year, supporting the mid- and long-term central price of gold; on the 7th, the Ministry of Finance released the \"Report on the Implementation of my country\\'s Fiscal Policy in 2023\", believing that last year\\'s fiscal policy effectively promoted the good and high-quality performance of our country\\'s economy development, and looks ahead to fiscal policy in 2024. Overseas: The situation in the Red Sea heats up again, with Super Tuesday results coming out. On March 3, local time, OPEC+ member states reached an agreement to extend the agreement on additional voluntary production cuts until the second quarter to support the stability and balance of the oil market. It is expected that short-term international oil prices will show a volatile and strong trend under the combined influence of supply and demand factors. ; On the 4th local time, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in the third quarter of this year. On the 6th and 7th, Powell reiterated his old tune at hearings in both houses of Congress. Based on the current changes in U.S. economic data, We still maintain that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates around the middle of the year; data on the 5th showed that Japan’s Tokyo CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year in February, higher than market expectations, reflecting that domestic inflation is still persistent, and whether Japan will escape the deflation dilemma needs further confirmation. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices, follow-up suggestions are to pay attention to the results of Japan\\'s spring labor negotiations in March and service price changes; on the 5th, the United States \"Super Tuesday\", 15 states and one overseas territory, American Samoa, will hold preliminary meetings at the same time In the election, Biden and Trump won the primaries in most states; on the 5th, the European Union\\'s PPI fell by 8.6% year-on-year in January, a greater than expected decline. Energy prices were the main reason for the continued decline in PPI. The European economy was weak and inflation was rising. It is expected that the European Central Bank may cut interest rates in the first half of the year. High-frequency data: Upstream: This week’s average Brent crude oil spot price, iron ore price, and cathode copper price increased by 1.2% week-on-week, fell by 0.9%, and rose by 0.34%; midstream: rebar prices fell by 2.06% week-on-week, and cement prices The index fell by 0.04% week-on-week, and the thermal coal closing price at Qinhuangdao Port fell by 0.63% week-on-week; downstream: the commercial housing transaction area fell by 32.72% week-on-week, and the national passenger car market averaged 58,000 daily retail sales in the fifth week of February; prices: Vegetable prices fell by 3.13% week-on-week, and pork prices fell by 1.36%. Focus next week: China’s February M2 annual rate, new RMB loans (Monday), U.S. February CPI annual rate (Tuesday); EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook report (Wednesday); U.S. February PPI annual rate, retail sales monthly rate ( Thursday); US February industrial output monthly rate, import price index, March University of Michigan consumer confidence index (Friday). Risk warning: The domestic economic recovery is less than expected, and the overseas economy is declining more than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('d3389991-b216-5572-82e3-6396ad6aed04'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9536212496459484, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'M5H5VCNADDVV7OREN4ANHN3N5JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:49:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'M5H5VCNADDVV7OREN4ANHN3N5JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('85eedaa7-5e47-52a3-bde0-ab778e8544aa'), 'title': 'High-frequency observation of China’s economy (first week of March): Funds constrain the progress of construction resumption', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Chang Yixin', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BKNGJyQ2rPnq7PG/tsGGjUo=', 'researcher': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000387731'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BKNGJyQ2rPnq7PG/tsGGjUo=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212508_1.pdf?1710154022000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626212508_1.pdf?1710154022000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'High-frequency observation of China’s economy (first week of March): Funds constrain the progress of construction resumption', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'originalContent': '平安观点：本周是春节假期结束后的第三周，货物流动、人员返程、建筑工地复工等进展仍然缓慢。工业原材料生产弱于季节性，但中下游汽车、纺织生产恢复较好。需求方面，新房销售环比回落近3成，外需环比继续恢复。建筑复工：同比偏慢。1）据百年建筑调研，截至3月5日（正月十八），全国工地开复工率农历同比减少13.6个百分点；劳务上工率农历同比下降10.7个百分点。续建项目进度偏缓，且新项目明显减少，资金问题未有明显改善。2）从主要建筑原料需求看，实物工作量形成速度约较去年农历同期低2成以上。其中，水泥出库量农历同比下降28.2%，基建水泥直供量农历同比下降17.3%。全国混凝土产能利用率为1.69%，同比降低1.38个百分点；混凝土发运量为33.85万方，同比减少45%。线下活动：货运物流恢复较慢，人员流动同比略有改善。1）近7日整车货运流量指数、公共物流园吞吐量指数、主要快递企业分拨中心吞吐量指数分别较1月均值低17.4%、低7.7%、低7.9%，同比增速均处负值区间。2）近7日，百度迁徙指数弱于去年同期，24城地铁客运量同比由负转正。工业生产：延续恢复势头。1）钢铁、沥青、水泥等建筑原材料生产环比回升，多数指标绝对水平低于去年同期。2）主要化工原料开工率分化，纯碱、甲醇、聚氯乙烯有所提升，而山东地炼、纯苯开工率回落。3）中下游生产表现较好，汽车轮胎开工率高位运行，纺织化纤产业链也有修复。地产：新房销售环比走弱，二手房销售环比恢复。1）近7日（截至3月8日），我们统计的61个样本城市新房日均成交面积环比下跌近3成，同比下跌45%，相比2019至2021年同期均值跌5成以上。分城市能级看，一线(-27%)>三线(-30%)>四五线(-31%)>二线(-55.5%)。2）近7日，15个样本城市二手房日均成交面积环比提升2成以上，同比增速约-29%，绝对水平高于2019-2021年同期均值。外需：本周出口集装箱运价回落，通往美西、欧洲、澳新等主要发达区域的航线运价均下跌；通往东南亚、东西非及南美等新兴市场及发展中区域的航线运价回升。上周港口吞吐量环比恢复，但低于去年同期。截至3月5日当周，交通运输部监测的港口累计完成集装箱吞吐量、货物吞吐量分别较去年同期回落2.4%、回落4.0%。物价：南华工业品指数回落，工业品现货价格大多下跌。焦煤、螺纹钢、铁矿石、玻璃、水泥等主要工业品现货价格大多回落。农产品价格环比回落，蔬菜价格明显下跌，水果价格下跌，而猪肉价格反弹。风险提示：稳增长政策不及预期，海外经济衰退程度超预期，地缘政治冲突升级等。', 'content': \"Ping An's perspective: This week is the third week after the Spring Festival holiday, and progress in the movement of goods, return of personnel, and resumption of work at construction sites is still slow. The production of industrial raw materials is weaker than seasonal, but the mid-stream and downstream automobile and textile production have recovered well. On the demand side, new home sales fell by nearly 30% month-on-month, and external demand continued to recover month-on-month. Construction resumption: slower year-on-year. 1) According to Centennial Construction Research, as of March 5 (the eighteenth day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of construction sites across the country has decreased by 13.6 percentage points year-on-year; the labor employment rate has decreased by 10.7 percentage points year-on-year. The progress of continued construction projects is slow, new projects have significantly decreased, and the funding problem has not been significantly improved. 2) Judging from the demand for major construction raw materials, the rate of physical workload formation is about 20% lower than that of the same period last year. Among them, the quantity of cement shipped out of warehouses fell by 28.2% year-on-year, and the direct supply of cement for infrastructure construction fell by 17.3% year-on-year. The national concrete production capacity utilization rate was 1.69%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.38 percentage points; the concrete shipment volume was 338,500 cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 45%. Offline activities: Freight logistics has recovered slowly, and the flow of people has improved slightly year-on-year. 1) In the past seven days, the vehicle freight flow index, public logistics park throughput index, and major express delivery company distribution center throughput index were 17.4%, 7.7%, and 7.9% lower than the January average respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were all negative. value interval. 2) In the past seven days, the Baidu migration index has been weaker than the same period last year, and the subway passenger volume in 24 cities turned from negative to positive year-on-year. Industrial production: The recovery momentum continues. 1) The production of construction raw materials such as steel, asphalt, cement, etc. has rebounded month-on-month, and the absolute levels of most indicators are lower than the same period last year. 2) The operating rates of major chemical raw materials are differentiated. Soda ash, methanol, and polyvinyl chloride have increased, while the operating rates of Shandong local refining and pure benzene have fallen. 3) Midstream and downstream production performed well, the operating rate of automobile tires was running at a high level, and the textile and chemical fiber industry chain was also repaired. Real Estate: New home sales weakened month-on-month, while second-hand home sales recovered month-on-month. 1) In the past 7 days (as of March 8), the average daily transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bnew homes in the 61 sample cities we counted has dropped by nearly 30% month-on-month and 45% year-on-year. Compared with the average value for the same period from 2019 to 2021, it has dropped by more than 50%. Looking at city levels, first-tier (-27%) > third-tier (-30%) > fourth- and fifth-tier (-31%) > second-tier (-55.5%). 2) In the past 7 days, the average daily transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bsecond-hand housing in 15 sample cities has increased by more than 20% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth rate of about -29%. The absolute level is higher than the average for the same period from 2019 to 2021. External demand: Export container freight rates fell this week, with freight rates on routes to major developed regions such as the Western United States, Europe, Australia and New Zealand falling; freight rates on routes to emerging markets and developing regions such as Southeast Asia, East and West Africa, and South America rebounded. . Port throughput recovered last week, but was lower than the same period last year. As of the week of March 5, the cumulative container throughput and cargo throughput of ports monitored by the Ministry of Transport fell by 2.4% and 4.0% respectively compared with the same period last year. Prices: The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell, and the spot prices of industrial products mostly fell. The spot prices of major industrial products such as coking coal, rebar, iron ore, glass, and cement have mostly fallen. The prices of agricultural products fell month-on-month, with vegetable prices falling significantly, fruit prices falling, and pork prices rebounding. Risk warning: Policies to stabilize growth fall short of expectations, overseas economic recession is worse than expected, geopolitical conflicts escalate, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('149306d1-3d93-5b17-941a-f5aa3a00dc04'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9532750444486737, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '74J88TCOQD0AANV7RTMNT4PQHVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:49:07 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '74J88TCOQD0AANV7RTMNT4PQHVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "IncompleteRead(1254 bytes read, 37409 more expected)\n", - "{'id': UUID('5b6107b8-2962-5dbf-826c-c7d083ba5217'), 'title': 'Comments on February inflation data: The Spring Festival is in the wrong month, and the performance of CPI and PPI is divergent', 'author': 'Xu Chao, Wan Qi', 'orgName': '太平洋证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80050806', 'orgSName': '太平洋', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BCUaCyI5HYdfxQlyyhOf8F4=', 'researcher': '徐超,万琦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249881', '11000454339'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BCUaCyI5HYdfxQlyyhOf8F4=', 'site': 'Pacific Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '太平洋', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626211720_1.pdf?1710152211000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626211720_1.pdf?1710152211000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February inflation data: The Spring Festival is in the wrong month, and the performance of CPI and PPI is divergent', 'originalAuthor': '徐超,万琦', 'originalContent': '中国2月CPI同比增长0.7%，市场预期增长0.4%，前值���降0.8%。中国2月PPI同比下降2.7%，市场预期下降2.5%，前值下降2.5%。01春节错月,CPI同比回升超预期中国2月CPI同比增长0.7%，小幅超出市场预期，较前值回升1.5个百分点。同比反弹的主要原因在于“春节错月”，去年春节假期于1月末开启，今年则在2月，这对2月份的通胀数据带来两方面的影响：一则今年食品、服务类消费在假期的刺激效应下价格边际走高；二则去年同期的基数走弱，继而推升同比读数。1-2月平均来看的话，全国居民消费价格则与上年同期持平。以上两点影响从数据上也可得到验证：一是2月份CPI环比上涨1.0%，相比前值涨幅扩大0.7个百分点，其中食品与服务分项拉动明显。食品项影响CPI上涨约0.59个百分点，出行和文娱消费类合计影响约0.3个百分点；二是根据统计局的测算，在2月份0.7%的CPI同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-0.6个百分点（前值为-1.1个百分点），今年价格变动的新影响约为1.3个百分点（前值为0.3个百分点），翘尾与新涨价因素的边际变化分别对应着去年同期基数的走低以及今年价格本身的上行。', 'content': 'China\\'s CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year in February, market expectations increased by 0.4%, and the previous value fell by 0.8%. China\\'s PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year in February, market expectations fell by 2.5%, and the previous value fell by 2.5%. 01 The Spring Festival falls in the wrong month, and CPI rebounds more than expected. China\\'s CPI in February increased by 0.7% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations and rising 1.5 percentage points from the previous value. The main reason for the year-on-year rebound is the \"Spring Festival holiday\". Last year, the Spring Festival holiday started at the end of January, but this year it is in February. This has two impacts on February\\'s inflation data: First, food and service consumption during the holiday this year The price marginally rose under the stimulus effect; secondly, the base number in the same period last year weakened, which in turn pushed up the year-on-year reading. Looking at the average from January to February, the national consumer price was the same as the same period last year. The impact of the above two points can also be verified from the data: First, the CPI rose by 1.0% month-on-month in February, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous value, with food and services contributing significantly. The food item affects the CPI increase by about 0.59 percentage points, and the travel and entertainment consumption categories have a combined impact of about 0.3 percentage points. Second, according to the Bureau of Statistics’ calculations, in the 0.7% year-on-year change in CPI in February, the tail-lifting impact was about -0.6 percentage points. (The previous value was -1.1 percentage points), the new impact of this year’s price changes was approximately 1.3 percentage points (the previous value was 0.3 percentage points), and the marginal changes in tail-lifting and new price increase factors respectively correspond to the lower base number in the same period last year and this year’s The price itself goes up.', 'authorid': UUID('449742b5-b0f3-5c56-92a0-5cc455ba4318'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7166217565536499, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8LQMV3TCABS6BNEI17V0V7BLLVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:49:55 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8LQMV3TCABS6BNEI17V0V7BLLVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a473b817-a271-5c0b-a42a-bc662936605d'), 'title': 'Macro report: Why small non-agricultural (ADP) and non-agricultural (NFP) employment continue to diverge', 'author': 'Song Xuetao', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BHB5H3fIbBJmeAGwol8Q1mo=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BHB5H3fIbBJmeAGwol8Q1mo=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626211717_1.pdf?1710152416000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626211717_1.pdf?1710152416000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro report: Why small non-agricultural (ADP) and non-agricultural (NFP) employment continue to diverge', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛', 'originalContent': '小非农（ADP）与非农（NFP）同为衡量美国就业的关键指标，但是疫情以来，两者之间的走势背离程度愈发加剧。小非农（ADP）仅包含私人部门就业��而非农（NFP）既包含私人部门又包含政府部门就业。因此当私人部门和政府部门的就业趋势出现差异，或政府就业遇到季节性变化时，小非农（ADP）和非农（NFP）会产生背离。我们认为两者就业趋势的差异是近半年来小非农（ADP）和非农（NFP）差异愈发明显的重要原因。从构成结构上看，与小非农（ADP）更具有可比性的是非农（NFP）的私人部门新增就业。疫情以来，两者的差异也开始加大，且波动更明显。我们认为有两个原因导致了小非农（ADP）和非农（NFP）私人部门就业出现背离且越来越大，一是编纂方法的差异导致了数据差异甚至背离，二是疫后美国就业活动的新特点放大了数据的差异程度。小非农（ADP）对灵活就业、临时用工的反应更准确，而非农（NFP）私人就业更多反应的是稳定工作的就业数据。为什么疫后两个数据的差异越来越大呢？这和美国疫后就业活动的新特点有关。疫情以来，美国兼职（包括自愿与非自愿）就业数小幅持续增加，但全职就业数快速修复后有所停滞。随着兼职人数的增加，非农就业开始再加速。而这一部分兼职的人数此前可能已经被小非农（ADP）所涵盖，因此小非农（ADP）就业保持稳定，加剧了近半年来的背离。风险提示：小非农（ADP）与非农(NFP)统计质量下降；美国年轻人就业偏好出现较大不确定性。', 'content': 'Small non-farm payrolls (ADP) and non-farm payrolls (NFP) are both key indicators of U.S. employment, but since the epidemic, the trend divergence between the two has become increasingly intensified. Small nonfarm (ADP) includes only private sector employment, while nonfarm (NFP) includes both private and government sector employment. Therefore, when there are differences in employment trends between the private sector and the government sector, or when government employment encounters seasonal changes, small non-farm payrolls (ADP) and non-farm payrolls (NFP) will diverge. We believe that the difference in employment trends between the two is an important reason why the difference between small non-agriculture (ADP) and non-agriculture (NFP) has become increasingly obvious in the past six months. From a structural point of view, what is more comparable to small non-agriculture (ADP) is the new employment in the private sector of non-agriculture (NFP). Since the epidemic, the difference between the two has begun to increase, and the fluctuations have become more obvious. We believe that there are two reasons that have caused the divergence between small non-agricultural (ADP) and non-agricultural (NFP) private sector employment to become larger and larger. First, differences in compilation methods have led to data differences and even divergences. Second, US employment after the epidemic New features of the activity magnified the extent of the data differences. Small non-agricultural employment (ADP) responds more accurately to flexible employment and temporary employment, while non-agricultural (NFP) private employment more reflects employment data of stable jobs. Why is the difference between the two data increasing after the epidemic? This is related to the new characteristics of post-epidemic employment activities in the United States. Since the epidemic, the number of part-time (including voluntary and involuntary) employment in the United States has continued to increase slightly, but the number of full-time employment has stagnated after a rapid recovery. As the number of part-time workers increases, non-agricultural employment begins to accelerate again. This part of the number of part-time workers may have been covered by ADP before, so ADP employment has remained stable, exacerbating the deviation in the past six months. Risk warning: The statistical quality of small non-farm payrolls (ADP) and non-farm payrolls (NFP) has declined; there is greater uncertainty in the employment preferences of young people in the United States.', 'authorid': UUID('e546a080-7eae-5a16-8b31-ee315393fe93'), 'sentimentScore': -0.5347664654254913, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'QMK6GKE2BLS2D3IJBTP494HDKRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:49:57 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'QMK6GKE2BLS2D3IJBTP494HDKRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('fe761b34-9116-5eae-8063-c9bdd504d30b'), 'title': 'Macro-thematic analysis report: U.S. election, poll: \"Which country is stronger?\"', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Chen Dafei, Zhao Yu', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BBncPdHFgJSKfZYsp03uXN4=', 'researcher': '赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000385631', '11000436531'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BBncPdHFgJSKfZYsp03uXN4=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626211693_1.pdf?1710154738000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626211693_1.pdf?1710154738000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro-thematic analysis report: U.S. election, poll: \"Which country is stronger?\"', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇', 'originalContent': '“超级星期二”之后，2024年美国总统大选初选格局已定。拜登与特朗普再次“狭路相逢”，谁会赢得本次大选？基于对美国民调的准确性和政治倾向的分析，报告认为，当前民调结果或低估了特朗普的得票率3.5个百分点。热点思考：特朗普支持率可能被低估美国大选民调机构数目众多，多数为媒体、大学、智库。2024年评级排名靠前的民调机构有：纽约时报、ABC新闻、马凯特大学、YOUGOV等机构。大选民调依赖于抽样调查，单个民调质量受统计方法的影响，误差难以避免，且会受政治倾向的干扰，多数民调误差为正负1%-4%左右。平均而言，今年大选，特朗普及拜登的民调误差为正负2.6%。单个民调误差难以控制，集合民调更有优势，后者已是判断大选风向的主要依据。集合民调将大量民调机构的结果进行汇总、平均，得到全国民调的总体情况。主流的集合民调机构包括FiveThirtyEight(538)、RealClearPolitics(RCP)和270toWin等。2020年大选，RCP和FiveThirtyEight的误差均低于单个本地民调，RCP的误差更低。大选早期民调表现一般，准确性约为73%。使用集合民调数据分析发现，1936年至2020年的22场大选里，早期民调预测正确16场，失误主因是“新人效应”，即候选人首次参加竞选，初期知名度低，导致民调偏低。例如克林顿1992年首次参选，早期民调落后11个点。剔除“新人效应”后，早期民调准确率可达80%。最终民调准确性较高，达到91%。1936年至2020年，最终民调预测仅出现两次失误，正确次数达20次，两次失误均与摇摆州民调有关。第一次民调失误为1948年大选，杜鲁门民调落后但仍成功当选。一方面是因为此次大选民调提前结束，另一方面，竞选后期，杜鲁门在摇摆州开展大量竞选活动，最终民调未能及时反映。第二次为2016年民调集体误判，主因是未能捕捉到摇摆州的民意变化。2016年大选，初始民调与最终民调均显示特朗普支持率更低，但在预测选举人得票率上却出现偏差。原因是低学历选民更愿意投给共和党及特朗普，但普遍不愿公开表达对特朗普的支持。在摇摆州，这种现象尤其明显，导致民调机构集体低估特朗普的支持率。因此民调失误往往与候选人“新人效应”及摇摆州民意难以识别有关，但今年，出现此类失误的可能性较低。其一，与以往大选不同，今年大选并无新人，基本可锁定为特朗普与拜登“重赛”。其二，今年摇摆州民意差距已被拉大，七大摇摆州里，特朗普有六个州民调领先，四个州领先幅度达3%以上，已突破2.6%的民调误差范围。民调机构普遍偏向民主党，或指向特朗普领先优势被低估。今年评级前20的民调机构中，16个更倾向于民主党。总体民调机构里，189家偏向共和党，284家偏民主党，比重为1:1.5，明显高于2000至2012年大选的均值1:0.77。2020及2016两次大选中，误差最低的前20场民调里，也各有13个更有利于民主党，偏向共和党的仅各有7个。相比于一般候选人，特朗普民调被低估的程度更高。1936年以来，共和党候选人民调平均被低估0.7个点，特朗普的民调被低估程度更高。2016年，特朗普早期民调被低估3.7个点，最终民调被低估4.1个点。2020年，特朗普同样被低估。两次大选合计，竞选早期，特朗普民调平均被低估2.8个点，最终民调平均被低估3.5个百分点。海外事件&数据：美国2月新增非农就业超预期，薪资增速较弱，失业率升至3.9%超级星期二结束，特朗普、拜登各自锁定党内提名。3月5日大选“超级星期二”，17个州举行初选，大选格局基本明朗。特朗普拿下1066名代表支持，拜登为1866名，各自基本锁定总统候选人提名。截至3月9日，特朗普支持率为47.5%，拜登支持率为45.3%。摇摆州支持率方面，特朗普领先幅度进一步扩大。美国2月新增非农就业人数27.5万，预期20万，过去12个月均值23万，12月、1月合计较修正前大幅减少16.7万。平均时薪同比4.3%，预期4.4%，前值4.5%；环比0.1%，预期0.3%，前值0.5%。失业率意外上���0.2%至3.9%，创2022年2月以来新高，预期3.7%；劳动参与率连续第三个月为62.5%，预期62.6%。截至3月9日，市场定价美联储6月首次降息的概率为57%。3月6日当周，美联储总资产规模小幅下降，美联储BTFP工具使用量微升。负债端，逆回购规模下降，准备金规模有所上升，TGA存款下降。货币市场基金规模上升190亿美元。2月28日当周，美国商业银行存款上升860亿美元。风险提示地缘政治冲突升级；美联储再次转“鹰”；金融条件加速收缩', 'content': 'After \"Super Tuesday\", the pattern of the 2024 US presidential election primaries has been determined. Biden and Trump \"face each other on a narrow road\" again. Who will win this election? Based on an analysis of the accuracy and political leanings of U.S. polls, the report believes that the current poll results may underestimate Trump\\'s vote share by 3.5 percentage points. Hot thoughts: Trump’s support rate may be underestimated. There are many polling organizations in the US election, most of which are media, universities, and think tanks. Polling organizations with top rankings in 2024 include: The New York Times, ABC News, Marquette University, YOUGOV and other institutions. General election polls rely on sample surveys. The quality of a single poll is affected by statistical methods. Errors are inevitable and will be interfered by political leanings. The error of most polls is about plus or minus 1%-4%. On average, in this year’s election, the poll error for Trump and Biden was plus or minus 2.6%. The error of individual polls is difficult to control, and collective polls have more advantages. The latter has become the main basis for judging the direction of the general election. Aggregated polling aggregates and averages the results of a large number of polling agencies to obtain the overall situation of national polling. Mainstream collective polling organizations include FiveThirtyEight (538), RealClearPolitics (RCP) and 270toWin. In the 2020 election, the errors of both RCP and FiveThirtyEight were lower than those of a single local poll, with RCP\\'s error even lower. Early polls for the general election were average, with an accuracy of about 73%. Analysis using aggregated polling data found that out of 22 general elections from 1936 to 2020, early poll predictions were correct in 16. The main reason for the error was the \"newcomer effect\", that is, the candidate participated in the election for the first time and had low initial popularity, leading to biased polls. Low. For example, when Clinton first ran for office in 1992, he was trailing by 11 points in early polls. After excluding the \"newcomer effect\", the accuracy of early polls can reach 80%. The accuracy of the final poll was high, reaching 91%. From 1936 to 2020, the final poll prediction was wrong only twice and correct 20 times. Both errors were related to swing state polls. The first polling error occurred in the 1948 election, when Truman fell behind in the polls but was still elected. On the one hand, this is because the polls for this general election ended early, and on the other hand, in the later stages of the campaign, Truman carried out a large number of campaign activities in swing states, and the final polls were not reflected in time. The second time was the collective misjudgment of the 2016 polls, mainly due to the failure to capture the changes in public opinion in swing states. In the 2016 election, both the initial poll and the final poll showed that Trump\\'s support rate was lower, but there was a deviation in predicting the electoral vote rate. The reason is that voters with low education are more willing to vote for the Republican Party and Trump, but are generally unwilling to publicly express support for Trump. This phenomenon is particularly evident in swing states, causing pollsters to collectively underestimate Trump\\'s support. Therefore, polling errors are often related to the \"newcomer effect\" of candidates and the difficulty in identifying public opinion in swing states, but this year, the possibility of such errors is low. First, unlike previous elections, there are no newcomers in this year’s election, which is basically a rematch between Trump and Biden. Second, the gap in public opinion in swing states has widened this year. Among the seven major swing states, Trump leads in the polls in six states, with a lead of more than 3% in four states, exceeding the 2.6% polling error margin. Pollsters generally favor the Democratic Party and may point to Trump\\'s lead being underestimated. Of the top 20 polling organizations rated this year, 16 favor the Democratic Party. Among the overall polling agencies, 189 favored the Republicans and 284 favored the Democrats, with a ratio of 1:1.5, which was significantly higher than the average of 1:0.77 from the 2000 to 2012 general elections. In the two general elections of 2020 and 2016, the top 20 with the lowest error In the poll, 13 of each party favored the Democrats, while only 7 of each party favored the Republicans. Trump is undervalued in polls to a greater extent than the average candidate. Since 1936, Republican candidate polls have been underestimated by an average of 0.7 points, with Trump polling even more undervalued. In 2016, Trump was underestimated by 3.7 points in early polls and 4.1 points in final polls. In 2020, Trump is also underestimated. Taking the two general elections combined, Trump\\'s polls were underestimated by an average of 2.8 points in the early stages of the campaign, and the final polls were underestimated by an average of 3.5 percentage points. Overseas events & data: The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in February exceeded expectations, wage growth was weak, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. At the end of Super Tuesday, Trump and Biden each locked up their party nominations. On March 5th, the “Super Tuesday” general election, 17 states held primaries, and the general election pattern was basically clear. Trump won the support of 1,066 delegates and Biden 1,866. Each has basically secured the presidential nomination. As of March 9, Trump’s approval rate was 47.5% and Biden’s approval rate was 45.3%. In terms of approval ratings in swing states, Trump\\'s lead further expanded. The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States was 275,000 in February, which was expected to be 200,000. The average number in the past 12 months was 230,000. The total number of non-farm jobs in December and January decreased significantly by 167,000 compared with before the revision. The average hourly wage was 4.3% year-on-year, expected 4.4%, and the previous value was 4.5%; month-on-month, it was 0.1%, expected 0.3%, and the previous value was 0.5%. The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased by 0.2% to 3.9%, hitting a new high since February 2022, and was expected to be 3.7%; the labor participation rate was 62.5% for the third consecutive month, and was expected to be 62.6%. As of March 9, the market priced in a 57% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time in June. In the week of March 6, the total assets of the Federal Reserve declined slightly, and the use of the Fed’s BTFP tool increased slightly. On the liability side, the scale of reverse repurchase decreased, the scale of reserves increased, and TGA deposits decreased. The size of money market funds increased by $19 billion. In the week of February 28, U.S. commercial bank deposits rose by $86 billion. Risks prompt the escalation of geopolitical conflicts; the Fed turns \"hawk\" again; financial conditions accelerate contraction', 'authorid': UUID('5561e32c-d3e7-5cc0-a5d5-33281e23a919'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6187854669988155, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'AHOIIUGS52B78VPAKR0AHK6DONVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:50:00 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'AHOIIUGS52B78VPAKR0AHK6DONVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('36ce0c6f-908f-5de3-9ec1-07cf7d4f59e3'), 'title': 'Current economic and policy thinking: three concerns about commodity prices', 'author': 'Yang Chang', 'orgName': '中泰证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000157', 'orgSName': '中泰证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BPEIuQ0p1Svb5ST7UW2AoQI=', 'researcher': '杨畅', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000286037'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BPEIuQ0p1Svb5ST7UW2AoQI=', 'site': 'Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中泰证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626211713_1.pdf?1710152314000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626211713_1.pdf?1710152314000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Current economic and policy thinking: three concerns about commodity prices', 'originalAuthor': '杨畅', 'originalContent': '第一，PPI仍然偏弱，单月环比下降0.2%，连续4个月环比负增长；另外，生产资料环比降幅更大，但生活资料环比下降时间更长；第二，CPI是否走强，单月环比上涨1.0%，主要受节庆假日扰动，计算1-2月均值，相较上年同期下降0.1%，反应同口径比较下的CPI并未走强；第三，服务价格续升。单月环比上涨1.0%，拉长观察维度，仍处于中长期上升通道，尤其是旅游价格，相较2018年基期上涨超过40%；高频数据：生产高位波动，基建运行仍弱，地产成交波动，土地出让仍弱，消费结构差异，出口运价续落，进口运价续升风险提示事件：国内与海外政策变动风险；国内与海外经济波动超预期风险；国际经济贸易摩擦风险', 'content': 'First, PPI is still weak, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, and negative growth month-on-month for 4 consecutive months; in addition, the means of production have fallen even more month-on-month, but the means of living have declined for a longer period of time; second, whether the CPI is strengthening, month-on-month growth has been negative for four consecutive months. It rose by 1.0%, mainly affected by festivals and holidays. Calculating the average value from January to February, it fell by 0.1% compared with the same period last year, reflecting that the CPI did not strengthen under the same caliber; third, service prices continued to rise. It increased by 1.0% month-on-month, extending the observation dimension, and it is still on the medium- to long-term upward channel, especially tourism prices, which increased by more than 40% compared with the base period of 2018; high-frequency data: production fluctuates at a high level, infrastructure operations are still weak, and real estate transactions fluctuate , land transfer is still weak, consumption structure is different, export freight rates continue to fall, and import freight rates continue to rise Risk reminder events: risks of domestic and overseas policy changes; risks of domestic and overseas economic fluctuations exceeding expectations; risks of international economic and trade frictions', 'authorid': UUID('f3afd47c-fdac-5a33-93e8-2b27032e7117'), 'sentimentScore': -0.961857395246625, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'S5Q467H2SVRRB1IRCODB95VTSNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:50:02 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'S5Q467H2SVRRB1IRCODB95VTSNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6f9e13f8-bdf7-54ee-a31c-67899a9c8250'), 'title': 'Macro Observation Issue 16, 2024 (Total Issue 527): Interpretation 2 of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": How much investment potential will the new round of \"large-scale equipment updates\" stimulate? ＊', 'author': 'Zhou Jingtong, Liang Jing, Liu Peizhong', 'orgName': '中国银行', 'orgCode': '80001122', 'orgSName': '中国银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BCJ/TFxTzXmT+c3kJ2e7h2M=', 'researcher': '周景彤,梁婧,刘佩忠', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000218248', '11000223840', '11000421835'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BCJ/TFxTzXmT+c3kJ2e7h2M=', 'site': 'Bank of China', 'originalSite': '中国银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209354_1.pdf?1710170511000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209354_1.pdf?1710170511000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Observation Issue 16, 2024 (Total Issue 527): Interpretation 2 of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": How much investment potential will the new round of \"large-scale equipment updates\" stimulate? ＊', 'originalAuthor': '周景彤,梁婧,刘佩忠', 'originalContent': '2024年2月23日，习近平总书记在中央财经委员会第四次会议上提出要“鼓励引导新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，鼓励汽车、家电等传统消费品以旧换新，推动耐用消费品以旧换新”。在刚刚召开的“两会”上，李强总理在《政府工作报告》中提出，要“积极扩大有效投资”“推动生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造”。实施大规模设备更新改造是推动产业转型升级和提振内需的重要抓手，有利于促进生产和服务领域设备绿色化、智能化更新。与以往设备更新工程相比，本轮大规模设备更新“新”在供给与需求协同，生产和服务并重。预计本轮大规模设备更新将拉动整体固定资产投资增长1.2-1.5个百分点，带动GDP增长0.4个百分点左右。政策可考虑再次设立专项再贷款，通过采取税收减免和政府采购等举措调动企业积极性，在推动设备更新改造过程中坚持高标准引领，同时避免政策“一刀切”影响生产稳定。', 'content': 'On February 23, 2024, General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed at the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission to \"encourage and guide a new round of large-scale equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods, encourage the trade-in of traditional consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances, and promote the trade-in of durable consumer goods.\" At the just-convened \"Two Sessions\", Premier Li Qiang proposed in the \"Government Work Report\" that we should \"actively expand effective investment\" and \"promote the updating and technological transformation of production equipment and service equipment.\" Implementing large-scale equipment upgrades is an important step to promote industrial transformation and upgrading and boost domestic demand, and is conducive to promoting green and intelligent updates of equipment in the production and service fields. Compared with previous equipment update projects, this round of large-scale equipment update is \"new\" in the coordination of supply and demand, with equal emphasis on production and service. This round of large-scale equipment renewal is expected to drive overall fixed asset investment growth by 1.2-1.5 percentage points and GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage points. Policies can consider setting up special re-loans again, mobilizing the enthusiasm of enterprises through measures such as tax exemptions and government procurement, and adhering to high standards in the process of promoting equipment upgrading and transformation, while avoiding \"one-size-fits-all\" policies that affect production stability.', 'authorid': UUID('0096e444-d3cb-592a-9be2-23ce58977a07'), 'sentimentScore': 0.4823253033682704, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'S1AGVFML48R2K1RJ9K9VOV4A0FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:50:05 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'S1AGVFML48R2K1RJ9K9VOV4A0FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f90fb51a-6161-53a8-b9a8-b527807467a4'), 'title': 'Comments on February inflation data: CPI returns to positive level, can it be sustained?', 'author': 'Xiao Yu', 'orgName': '中泰证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000157', 'orgSName': '中泰证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BBqQCuCS5dgcWC1m2+SzQ54=', 'researcher': '肖雨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000255536'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BBqQCuCS5dgcWC1m2+SzQ54=', 'site': 'Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中泰证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209346_1.pdf?1710153181000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209346_1.pdf?1710153181000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February inflation data: CPI returns to positive level, can it be sustained?', 'originalAuthor': '肖雨', 'originalContent': '投资要点事件：统计局公布，2024年2月CPI同比上涨0.7%，环比上涨1.0%；PPI同比下降2.7%，环比下降0.2%。我们点评如下：CPI：2月CPI同比0.7%（前值-0.8%），高于预期值0.4%，自2023年9月份以来首度回正。CPI环比上涨1.0%；核心CPI同比增速为1.2%（2023年12月和2024年1月分别为0.6%、0.4%）。CPI同比增速回正，可能一方面受到春节错位因素影响，去年2月份春节后物价回落，而今年2月份春节物价上涨；另一方面，猪肉、旅游价格1-2月同比增速较快，是本次居民价格指数超预期上行的主要拉动项，二者分别对应三分法中的食品项和服务项。三分法来看，食品项同比由-5.9%回升至-0.9%，拉动CPI回落约0.2个百分点，对CPI的拖累减小；工业消费品同比由0.2%升至0.3%，拉动CPI回升0.1个百分点；服务项同比增速由0.5%回升至1.9%，拉动CPI约0.8个百分点。八大项中，食品烟酒、教育文化娱乐、交通通信是2月份CPI的主要拉动项。1）食品烟酒：猪肉价格同环比均上涨。2月份食品烟酒同比增速-0.1%，相比2023年12月上升1.9个百分点；1-2月同比增速（-1.9%）相比12月份上升0.1个百分点。其中，猪肉、蛋类和水产品同比增速较快，剔除春节效应，考虑1-2月同比增速，三者相比2023年12月份分别高出17.0、1.2和1.0个百分点。猪肉价格结束了去年10月份以来的环比下行，2月份逆势回升7.2个百分点，而2021-2023年同期猪肉价格均环比回落；从同比来看，2023年12月、2024年1月猪肉价格增速分别为-26.1%、-17.3%，处在猪周期价格下行的阶段，而2月份同比转正至0.2%。但猪肉价格是否已经走出下行周期，还是仅由春节期间物价总体上行驱动仍需观察。2）教育文化娱乐：春节假期延长，旅游需求旺盛。2月份教育文化娱乐同比增速3.9%，相比2023年12月上升2.1个百分点；1-2月同比增速（2.6%）相比12月份上升0.8个百分点。教育文化娱乐内含教育服务和旅游两个分项，其中教育服务2月份同比增速1.7%，旅游分项增长23.1%，因此主要由旅游价格带动。从环比来看，2月份旅游价格增速13.1%，明显超季节性。去年年底，中办、国办《关于做好2024年元旦春节期间有关工作的通知》提出，鼓励各单位结合带薪年休假等制度落实，安排职工在除夕休息。因此2024年春节相比往年有所延长，叠加交运部加强重点时段、热点路线运力储备和供给，最大限度满足群众出行需求，今年春节期间旅游需求相对旺盛，推升了旅游分项价格。3）交通通信：春运、旅游需求推升交通价格。2月份��通通信同比增速-0.4%，相比2023年12月上升1.8个百分点；1-2月同比增速（-1.4%）相比12月份上升0.8个百分点。其中，交通工具使用和维修、交通工具使用燃料2月份同比增速分别为2.9%和0.8%，1-2月同比增速分别为0.9%和0.3%，均相比去年12月份有所上行。2月PPI同比下降2.7%，低于Wind一致预期（-2.5%）。在2月份的PPI同比增速中，去年价格变动的翘尾影响约为-2.3个百分点，新涨价影响约为-0.4个百分点。从分项来看，生产资料价格由上月的同比-3.0%回落至-3.4%，生活资料价格回升0.2个百分点至-0.9%。在主要行业中，油气开采2月份正增长（4.2%），其余行业多数负增长，煤炭开采和洗选业负增长程度较大（-14.7%）。2月份，PPI与CPI剪刀差由-1.7%回落1.7个百分点至-3.4%。CPI正增长能否持续？我们认为3月份仍将维持正增长。从影响CPI最主要的两个因素，即猪肉价格和原油价格来看，首先，2023年上半年猪肉价格连续环比回落，3月份环比增速-4.2%，意味着3月份猪肉价格基数进一步降低，即便本月猪肉价格在春节效应消退之后上升速度减缓、持平甚至微降，猪肉价格都将对CPI形成一定支撑。其次，从原油价格来看，去年3月份油价先降后升，中枢相比2月份有所降低，意味着油价基数将有所下降，假使本月油价未出现明显趋势性变动，原油分项对CPI的拉动作用将有所上升。最后，2月份旅游价格的超季节性上行可能会在3月份消退，旅游分项对CPI的贡献回归正常水平。但“猪油共振”下，3月份CPI预计仍为正数。政策层面，潘功胜行长在十四届全国人大二次会议经济主题记者会上答记者问上明确表示，“我们将把维护价格稳定、推动价格温和回升作为货币政策的重要考量”，因此通胀的温和回升既具有一定的现实基础，也与政策导向相一致。但2月份通胀数据“开门红”能否指示经济基本面的进一步修复可能仍需观察。春节效应以及旅游需求的超季节性增长是难以完全剔除的因素。2月份经济修复的效果以及持续性如何还需等待后续金融、经济数据的进一步验证。风险提示：猪肉价格、原油价格超预期波动等。', 'content': 'Key investment events: The Bureau of Statistics announced that in February 2024, CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month; PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Our comments are as follows: CPI: The CPI in February was 0.7% year-on-year (previous value -0.8%), 0.4% higher than the expected value, and returned to positive for the first time since September 2023. CPI increased by 1.0% month-on-month; core CPI growth rate was 1.2% year-on-year (0.6% and 0.4% in December 2023 and January 2024 respectively). The year-on-year growth rate of CPI has returned to positive. On the one hand, it may be affected by the misalignment of the Spring Festival. In February last year, prices fell after the Spring Festival, but in February this year, prices rose during the Spring Festival. On the other hand, pork and tourism prices grew faster year-on-year in January and February. It is the main driver of the unexpected increase in the resident price index this time. The two correspond to the food items and service items in the three-point rule respectively. Judging from the three-point rule, food items rose from -5.9% to -0.9% year-on-year, driving the CPI back by about 0.2 percentage points, reducing the drag on CPI; industrial consumer goods rose from 0.2% to 0.3% year-on-year, driving the CPI back up by 0.1 percentage points percentage points; the year-on-year growth rate of services rebounded from 0.5% to 1.9%, driving CPI by about 0.8 percentage points. Among the eight major items, food, tobacco and alcohol, education, culture and entertainment, transportation and communications were the main driving items of CPI in February. 1) Food, tobacco and alcohol: Pork prices increased year-on-month. The year-on-year growth rate of food, tobacco and alcohol in February was -0.1%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points compared with December 2023; the year-on-year growth rate from January to February (-1.9%) was an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared with December. Among them, pork, eggs and aquatic products have faster year-on-year growth rates. Excluding the Spring Festival effect and considering the year-on-year growth rates from January to February, the three are 17.0, 1.2 and 1.0 percentage points higher than in December 2023 respectively. Pork prices ended their month-on-month decline since October last year, bucking the trend and rebounding by 7.2 percentage points in February, while pork prices fell month-on-month in the same period from 2021 to 2023; from a year-on-year perspective, pork prices increased in December 2023 and January 2024. The growth rates were -26.1% and -17.3% respectively, which is in the downward stage of the pig cycle price. In February, the year-on-year price turned positive to 0.2%. However, it remains to be seen whether pork prices have exited the downward cycle, or whether they are only driven by the overall rise in prices during the Spring Festival. 2) Education, culture and entertainment: The Spring Festival holiday is extended and tourism demand is strong. In February, the year-on-year growth rate of education, culture and entertainment was 3.9%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared with December 2023; the year-on-year growth rate from January to February (2.6%) was an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared with December. Education, culture and entertainment include two sub-categories: educational services and tourism. Among them, educational services grew by 1.7% year-on-year in February, and the tourism sub-category increased by 23.1%, so it was mainly driven by tourism prices. From a month-on-month perspective, tourism prices increased by 13.1% in February, which was obviously super seasonal. At the end of last year, the \"Notice on Doing Relevant Work During the New Year\\'s Day and Spring Festival in 2024\" issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council proposed to encourage all units to implement systems such as paid annual leave and arrange for employees to rest on New Year\\'s Eve. Therefore, the Spring Festival in 2024 has been extended compared to previous years. In addition, the Ministry of Transport has strengthened the capacity reserve and supply of key periods and hot routes to meet the travel needs of the masses to the greatest extent. Tourism demand during the Spring Festival this year is relatively strong, pushing up the price of tourism items. 3) Transportation and communications: Spring Festival transportation and tourism demand push up transportation prices. The year-on-year growth rate of transportation and communications in February was -0.4%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points compared with December 2023; the year-on-year growth rate from January to February (-1.4%) was an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared with December. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of vehicle use and maintenance and vehicle fuel use in February were 2.9% and 0.8% respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates from January to February were 0.9% and 0.3% respectively, both of which were higher than in December last year. PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year in February, lower than Wind\\'s consensus forecast (-2.5%). In the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in February, the impact of price changes last year was approximately -2.3 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was approximately -0.4 percentage points. In terms of items, the price of means of production dropped to -3.4% from -3.0% year-on-year last month, and the price of means of living rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to -0.9%. Among the major industries, oil and gas extraction had positive growth in February (4.2%), while most other industries had negative growth. The coal mining and washing industry had a relatively large negative growth (-14.7%). In February, the scissor gap between PPI and CPI fell by 1.7 percentage points from -1.7% to -3.4%. Can positive CPI growth be sustained? We believe that positive growth will still be maintained in March. Judging from the two most important factors affecting CPI, namely pork price and crude oil price, first of all, pork price continued to fall month-on-month in the first half of 2023, with a month-on-month growth rate of -4.2% in March, which means that the base of pork prices in March further dropped. Even if the rise in pork prices this month slows down, remains flat or even drops slightly after the Spring Festival effect subsides, pork prices will provide some support for CPI. Secondly, from the perspective of crude oil prices, in March last year, oil prices first fell and then rose. The center was lower than that in February, which means that the oil price base will decline. If there is no obvious trend change in oil prices this month, the crude oil sub-item comparison The pulling effect of CPI will increase. Finally, the super-seasonal rise in tourism prices in February may subside in March, and the contribution of the tourism component to CPI returns to normal levels. However, under the \"lard resonance\", the CPI in March is still expected to be positive. At the policy level, Governor Pan Gongsheng made it clear in answering questions from reporters at the economic press conference of the Second Session of the 14th National People’s Congress that “we will regard maintaining price stability and promoting a moderate price recovery as an important consideration in monetary policy.” Therefore, the impact of inflation A moderate rebound has a certain realistic basis and is also consistent with policy guidance. However, it may still need to be seen whether the \"good start\" in February\\'s inflation data can indicate further repair of economic fundamentals. The Spring Festival effect and the super-seasonal increase in tourism demand are factors that are difficult to completely eliminate. The effectiveness and sustainability of economic recovery in February still need to be further verified by subsequent financial and economic data. Risk warning: Pork prices and crude oil prices fluctuate beyond expectations, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('8140c451-8a6a-5e7d-961a-cec7a4ef1548'), 'sentimentScore': -0.48846253752708435, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'UIEII64NOL4S265BDCAGEG7OI7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:50:28 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'UIEII64NOL4S265BDCAGEG7OI7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('814d3f4a-9dcf-5087-957d-09174dc2ab13'), 'title': 'Macro Observation Issue 15, 2024 (Total Issue 526): Interpretation 1 of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": What is the potential of the new round of \"old-for-new\" policy for consumer goods? ＊', 'author': 'Zhou Jingtong, Liang Jing, Fan Ruoying', 'orgName': '中国银行', 'orgCode': '80001122', 'orgSName': '中国银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BFNUXe9It7NbFS59ix66Y6g=', 'researcher': '周景彤,梁婧,范若滢', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000218248', '11000223840', '11000257148'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BFNUXe9It7NbFS59ix66Y6g=', 'site': 'Bank of China', 'originalSite': '中国银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209345_1.pdf?1710169431000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209345_1.pdf?1710169431000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Observation Issue 15, 2024 (Total Issue 526): Interpretation 1 of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": What is the potential of the new round of \"old-for-new\" policy for consumer goods? ＊', 'originalAuthor': '周景彤,梁婧,范若滢', 'originalContent': '近年来，消费对我国经济增长的拉动作用越来越大。在刚刚召开的“两会”上，李强总理所做的《政府工作报告》提出要促进消费稳定增长，鼓励和推动消费品以旧换新，提振智能网联新能源汽车、电子产品等大宗消费。预计，新一轮消费品“以旧换新”政策将催生新的消费增长点。根据定量测算，在不同情形下，本轮“以旧换新”政策有望激发新增汽车、家电需求估计约为2109-6293亿元，将拉动GDP增长约0.16-0.5个百分点。若本轮消费品“以旧换新”政策配合新能源汽车、新型家电下乡等优惠政策，则有望释放更大消费潜力。但本轮消费品“以旧换新”政策也面临一些堵点和难点，需进一步完善相关政策，更大程度发挥政策潜力，以更好达到促消费稳增长的目的。金融业要紧扣国家发展大局，持续提升金融产品与服务质效，充分把握本轮消费品“以旧换新”政策带来的市场机遇，当好服务实体经济的主力军。', 'content': 'In recent years, consumption has played an increasingly important role in driving my country\\'s economic growth. At the just-convened \"Two Sessions\", the \"Government Work Report\" delivered by Prime Minister Li Qiang proposed to promote stable growth of consumption, encourage and promote the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, and boost bulk consumption such as intelligent connected new energy vehicles and electronic products. It is expected that a new round of “old-for-new” policy for consumer goods will generate new consumption growth points. According to quantitative calculations, under different circumstances, this round of \"old-for-new\" policy is expected to stimulate new demand for cars and home appliances estimated at about 210.9-629.3 billion yuan, which will boost GDP growth by about 0.16-0.5 percentage points. If this round of \"old-for-new\" policies for consumer goods are combined with preferential policies such as new energy vehicles and new home appliances going to the countryside, it is expected to unleash greater consumption potential. However, this round of \"old-for-new\" policy for consumer goods also faces some blockages and difficulties. It is necessary to further improve relevant policies and maximize policy potential to better achieve the purpose of promoting consumption and steady growth. The financial industry must closely follow the overall development of the country, continue to improve the quality and efficiency of financial products and services, fully seize the market opportunities brought by this round of \"old-for-new\" consumer goods policy, and serve as the main force in serving the real economy.', 'authorid': UUID('949a7f7d-42a2-5852-9729-a77373a7fd46'), 'sentimentScore': 0.7064312128350139, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'NFJ8DU9UEDPNIHO3TQA3906Q7VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:50:30 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'NFJ8DU9UEDPNIHO3TQA3906Q7VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f463a5ec-fa00-5129-b1bf-f48d94eba079'), 'title': 'Comments on inflation data in February 2024: CPI higher than expected, PPI lower than expected', 'author': 'Ye Fan, Wang Runmeng, Liu Yanhong', 'orgName': '西南证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000296', 'orgSName': '西南证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BM7YDt+AEbReeU0d7MDzPiA=', 'researcher': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000263735', '11000418732', '11000440469'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BM7YDt+AEbReeU0d7MDzPiA=', 'site': 'Southwest Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '西南证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209329_1.pdf?1710153389000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209329_1.pdf?1710153389000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on inflation data in February 2024: CPI higher than expected, PPI lower than expected', 'originalAuthor': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'originalContent': '点评春节错位叠加天气影响，CPI同比超预期上涨。同比来看，2024年2月，春节错位效应，叠加天气因素影响供给，CPI同比由上月下降0.8%转为上涨0.7%，涨幅超出市场预期。其中，食品价格的拖累有所减弱，食品CPI同比降幅大幅收窄5个百分点至-0.9%，影响CPI下降约0.17个百分点，非食品价格同比涨幅扩大0.7个百分点至1.1%，影响CPI上涨约0.89个百分点；环比来看，春节期间消费需求增加，加之部分地区雨雪天气影响供给，2月CPI环比上涨1%，涨幅扩大0.7个百分点，连续三个月上涨，但小幅低于2015-2019年春节当月CPI环比平均水平1.2%。其中，食品价格环比涨幅扩大2.9个百分点至3.3%，影响CPI上涨约0.58个百分点，春节期间出行和文娱消费增多，非食品价格上涨0.5%，涨幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点，影响CPI上涨约0.44个百分点。2月，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅较上月扩大0.8个百分点，为2022年2月以来最高涨幅，环比上涨0.5%，涨幅扩大0.2个百分点。鲜菜价格环比大涨，猪肉价格环比结束下行。同比来看，2月食品细项中除粮食、鲜菜、水产品、卷烟类价格同比上升外，其余食品类价格同比均下降。鲜菜价格同比增速回升最多，其次是畜肉类、水产品、鲜果等，而酒类同比降幅扩大。其中，畜肉类价格同比降幅收窄8.7个百分点至-2.9%，2月在春节消费带动下猪肉价格有所回升，加之春节错位使得基数走低，猪肉价格同比由下降17.3%转为上涨0.2%，在连续下降9个月后首次转涨；在节日需求拉动以及采摘、运输成本上涨下，鲜菜价格季节性上行，再加上春节错位，鲜菜价格同比由下降12.7%转为上涨2.9%；春节期间，水产品需求增加，叠加基数效应，水产品价格同比由下降3.4%转为上涨4.1%。环比来看，节日效应叠加天气影响供应和运输，鲜菜、水产品、鲜果、畜肉类及卷烟价格环比上行。其中，鲜菜价格环比上涨最多，涨幅达12.7%，较上月扩大8.9个百分点；猪肉价格环比由上月下降0.2%转为上涨7.2%，结束了连续四个月的环比下降；水产品价格环比上涨6.2%，涨幅扩大3.6个百分点；鲜果价格环比由下降0.5%转为上涨4.3%。春节假期带动，以及养殖端惜售挺价，猪肉价格有所反弹，但节后终端需求下滑，养殖端出栏节奏逐渐恢复，猪价有所回落。但后续随着生猪产能持续去化，猪肉价格有望逐步企稳。此外，随着气温逐渐回升，蔬菜供应逐步恢复，鲜菜价格或有所下滑。截至2024年3月8日，高频数据显示3月初28种重点监测蔬菜同比由下降转为上涨，7种重点监测水果价格和鸡蛋平均批发价同比降幅扩大，猪肉平均批发价同比由上涨转为下降；28种重点监测蔬菜、猪肉平均批发价环比由上涨转为下降，7种重点监测水果价格环比涨幅收敛，鸡蛋平均批发价环比降幅扩大。2024年3月，预计在春节效应消退之后主要食品类别价格将有所回落，食品CPI同比增速将走低，但中期随着供给逐渐去化，食品CPI有望逐步回升。旅游价格表现亮眼，交通工具用燃料价格同比转涨。2月，非食品中消费品价格同比降幅收窄1.6个百分点至-0.1%，服务价格同比涨幅扩大1.4个百分点至1.9%。其中，七大类价格同比六涨一降，交通通信、教育文化娱乐、医疗保健和其他用品及服务���格同比增速上升，衣着价格同比增速持平，居住和生活用品及服务同比增速回落。交通工具用燃料价格同比由下降0.1%转为上涨0.8%，旅游价格同比涨幅扩大21.3个百分点至23.1%，飞机票和交通工具租赁费也同比上涨20.8%和17.4%，主要因春节错位下基数较低。七大类价格环比三涨一平三降，春节期间出行和文娱消费需求大幅增加，飞机票、交通工具租赁费、旅游、电影及演出票价格涨幅在12.5%-23.0%之间，合计影响CPI上涨约0.30个百分点。其中旅游价格环比为2011年以来最大涨幅；受国际油价上行影响，国内汽油价格由上月下降1.0%转为上涨2.0%，影响CPI上涨约0.07个百分点。而衣着、据国家发改委，自3月4日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别提高125元、120元，或带动交通工具用燃料价格继续走高，春节效应消退后，旅游等服务价格或将逐渐回落至淡季水平，预计非食品价格短期涨幅也将有所收敛。PPI同比降幅超预期扩大，与工业淡季和复工节奏有关。2月PPI同比降幅较1月扩大0.2个百分点至-2.7%，低于市场预期，与CPI的走势分化，除了工业淡季因素之外，可能也与春节后复工节奏偏慢有关。其中，生产资料同比降幅较上月扩大0.4个百分点至-3.4%，生活资料价格同比降幅较上月收敛0.2个百分点至-0.9%。主要行业中，化学原料和化学制品制造业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业、电气机械和器材制造业4个行业价格同比降幅比上月均扩大，合计影响PPI同比下降约1.17个百分点，对PPI的下拉作用比上月增加0.19个百分点。煤炭开采和洗选业、非金属矿物制品业、计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业价格同比也走低，合计影响PPI同比下降约0.92个百分点。从环比看，PPI环比下降0.2%，降幅与上月相同。其中，生产资料价格下降0.3%，降幅扩大0.1个百分点；生活资料价格下降0.1%，降幅收敛0.1个百分点。国际原油价格上行，带动国内石油相关行业价格上涨，其中石油和天然气开采业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业价格分别环比上涨2.5%和0.2%；市场需求改善带动有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨0.2%；北方气温偏高，采暖用煤需求减少，加之非电用煤需求季节性偏弱，煤炭开采和洗选业价格下降0.7%；春节假日房地产、基建项目停工等因素影响下，钢材、水泥等行业需求减少，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、水泥制造价格分别下降0.4%、1.4%；此外，锂离子电池制造、新能源车整车制造、计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业价格环比也呈下行态势。从国际上看，OPEC+减产延长至二季度，且全球制造业周期有启动迹象，1、2月全球制造业PMI均升至荣枯线上，但美国等发达国家利率依然较高，对经济的滞后效应或将逐渐显现，2月美国失业率上升0.2个点至3.9%，需求端或依然偏弱，供需因素下预计国际油价将呈震荡走势。从国内来看，稳增长政策力度不减，今年两会提出3%赤字率和1万亿元超长期特别国债，而且提出优化房地产政策，有望支撑国内基建和地产开工，国内相关工业品价格有望得到提振，尤其是即将进入到节后金三银四开工旺季，预计PPI同比降幅有望逐步收敛。预计短期CPI同比增速回落，PPI同比降幅收敛。2月，CPI和PPI同比走势分化，CPI继续高于PPI，CPI-PPI剪刀差较1月扩大至3.4个百分点。CPI方面，在2月份0.7%的CPI同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-0.6个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为1.3个百分点。春节效应消退之后主要食品类别价格将有所回落，食品CPI同比增速预计将走低，成品油价格上升对非食品价格有支撑，但旅游等服务价格或将逐渐回落至淡季水平，预计非食品价格短期涨幅也将有所收敛。综合来看3月份CPI同比增速或回落，但中期来看随着需求转好、供给下降CPI仍具备回升基础；PPI方面，在2月份-2.7%的PPI同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-2.3个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为-0.4个百分点。国际油价短期或呈震荡态势，政策或支撑国内相关工业品价格，预计PPI同比降幅逐步收敛。风险提示：需求复苏不及预期、国际大宗商品价格波动超预期。', 'content': '点评春节错位叠加天气影响，CPI同比超预期上涨。同比来看，2024年2月，春节错位效应，叠加天气因素影响供给，CPI同比由上月下降0.8%转为上涨0.7%，涨幅超出市场预期。其中，食品价格的拖累有所减弱，食品CPI同比降幅大幅收窄5个百分点至-0.9%，影响CPI下降约0.17个百分点，非食品价格同比涨幅扩大0.7个百分点至1.1%，影响CPI上涨约0.89个百分点；环比来看，春节期间消费需求增加，加之部分地区雨雪天气影响供给，2月CPI环比上涨1%，涨幅扩大0.7个百分点，连续三个月上涨，但小幅低于2015-2019年春节当月CPI环比平均水平1.2%。其中，食品价格环比涨幅扩大2.9个百分点至3.3%，影响CPI上涨约0.58个百分点，春节期间出行和文娱消费增多，非食品价格上涨0.5%，涨幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点，影响CPI上涨约0.44个百分点。2月，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅较上月扩大0.8个百分点，为2022年2月以来最高涨幅，环比上涨0.5%，涨幅扩大0.2个百分点。鲜菜价格环比大涨，猪肉价格环比结束下行。同比来看，2月食品细项中除粮食、鲜菜、水产品、卷烟类价格同比上升外，其余食品类价格同比均下降。鲜菜价格同比增速回升最多，其次是畜肉类、水产品、鲜果等，而酒类同比降幅扩大。其中，畜肉类价格同比降幅收窄8.7个百分点至-2.9%，2月在春节消费带动下猪肉价格有所回升，加之春节错位使得基数走低，猪肉价格同比由下降17.3%转为上涨0.2%，在连续下降9个月后首次转涨；在节日需求拉动以及采摘、运输成本上涨下，鲜菜价格季节性上行，再加上春节错位，鲜菜价格同比由下降12.7%转为上涨2.9%；春节期间，水产品需求增加，叠加基数效应，水产品价格同比由下降3.4%转为上涨4.1%。环比来看，节日效应叠加天气影响供应和运输，鲜菜、水产品、鲜果、畜肉类及卷烟价格环比上行。其中，鲜菜价格环比上涨最多，涨幅达12.7%，较上月扩大8.9个百分点；猪肉价格环比由上月下降0.2%转为上涨7.2%，结束了连续四个月的环比下降；水产品价格环比上涨6.2%，涨幅扩大3.6个百分点；鲜果价格环比由下降0.5%转为上涨4.3%。春节假期带动，以及养殖端惜售挺价，猪肉价格有所反弹，但节后终端需求下滑，养殖端出栏节奏逐渐恢复，猪价有所回落。但后续随着生猪产能持续去化，猪肉价格有望逐步企稳。此外，随着气温逐渐回升，蔬菜供应逐步恢复，鲜菜价格或有所下滑。截至2024年3月8日，高频数据显示3月初28种重点监测蔬菜同比由下降转为上涨，7种重点监测水果价格和鸡蛋平均批发价同比降幅扩大，猪肉平均批发价同比由上涨转为下降；28种重点监测蔬菜、猪肉平均批发价环比由上涨转为下降，7种重点监测水果价格环比涨幅收敛，鸡蛋平均批发价环比降幅扩大。2024年3月，预计在春节效应消退之后主要食品类别价格将有所回落，食品CPI同比增速将走低，但中期随着供给逐渐去化，食品CPI有望逐步回升。旅游价格表现亮眼，交通工具用燃料价格同比转涨。2月，非食品中消费品价格同比降幅收窄1.6个百分点至-0.1%，服务价格同比涨幅扩大1.4个百分点至1.9%。其中，七大类价格同比六涨一降，交通通信、教育文化娱乐、医疗保健和其他用品及服务价格同比增速上升，衣着价格同比增速持平，居住和生活用品及服务同比增速回落。交通工具用燃料价格同比由下降0.1%转为上涨0.8%，旅游价格同比涨幅扩大21.3个百分点至23.1%，飞机票和交通工具租赁费也同比上涨20.8%和17.4%，主要因春节错位下基数较低。七大类价格环比三涨一平三降，春节期间出行和文娱消费需求大幅增加，飞机票、交通工具租赁费、旅游、电影及演出票价格涨幅在12.5%-23.0%之间，合计影响CPI上涨约0.30个百分点。其中旅游价格环比为2011年以来最大涨幅；受国际油价上行影响，国内汽油价格由上月下降1.0%转为上涨2.0%，影响CPI上涨约0.07个百分点。而衣着、据国家发改委，自3月4日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别提高125元、120元，或带动交通工具用燃料价格继续走高，春节效应消退后，旅游等服务价格或将逐渐回落至淡季水平，预计非食品价格短期涨幅也将有所收敛。PPI同比降幅超预期扩大，与工业淡季和复工节奏有关。2月PPI同比降幅较1月扩大0.2个百分点至-2.7%，低于市场预期，与CPI的走势分化，除了工业淡季因素之外，可能也与春节后复工节奏偏慢有关。其中，生产资料同比降幅较上月扩大0.4个百分点至-3.4%，生活资料价格同比降幅较上月收敛0.2个百分点至-0.9%。主要行业中，化学原料和化学制品制造业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业、电气机械和器材制造业4个行业价格同比降幅比上月均扩大，合计影响PPI同比下降约1.17个百分点，对PPI的下拉作用比上月增加0.19个百分点。煤炭开采和洗选业、非金属矿物制品业、计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业价格同比也走低，合计影响PPI同比下降约0.92个百分点。从环比看，PPI环比下降0.2%，降幅���上月相同。其中，生产资料价格下降0.3%，降幅扩大0.1个百分点；生活资料价格下降0.1%，降幅收敛0.1个百分点。国际原油价格上行，带动国内石油相关行业价格上涨，其中石油和天然气开采业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业价格分别环比上涨2.5%和0.2%；市场需求改善带动有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨0.2%；北方气温偏高，采暖用煤需求减少，加之非电用煤需求季节性偏弱，煤炭开采和洗选业价格下降0.7%；春节假日房地产、基建项目停工等因素影响下，钢材、水泥等行业需求减少，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、水泥制造价格分别下降0.4%、1.4%；此外，锂离子电池制造、新能源车整车制造、计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业价格环比也呈下行态势。从国际上看，OPEC+减产延长至二季度，且全球制造业周期有启动迹象，1、2月全球制造业PMI均升至荣枯线上，但美国等发达国家利率依然较高，对经济的滞后效应或将逐渐显现，2月美国失业率上升0.2个点至3.9%，需求端或依然偏弱，供需因素下预计国际油价将呈震荡走势。从国内来看，稳增长政策力度不减，今年两会提出3%赤字率和1万亿元超长期特别国债，而且提出优化房地产政策，有望支撑国内基建和地产开工，国内相关工业品价格有望得到提振，尤其是即将进入到节后金三银四开工旺季，预计PPI同比降幅有望逐步收敛。预计短期CPI同比增速回落，PPI同比降幅收敛。2月，CPI和PPI同比走势分化，CPI继续高于PPI，CPI-PPI剪刀差较1月扩大至3.4个百分点。CPI方面，在2月份0.7%的CPI同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-0.6个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为1.3个百分点。春节效应消退之后主要食品类别价格将有所回落，食品CPI同比增速预计将走低，成品油价格上升对非食品价格有支撑，但旅游等服务价格或将逐渐回落至淡季水平，预计非食品价格短期涨幅也将有所收敛。综合来看3月份CPI同比增速或回落，但中期来看随着需求转好、供给下降CPI仍具备回升基础；PPI方面，在2月份-2.7%的PPI同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-2.3个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为-0.4个百分点。国际油价短期或呈震荡态势，政策或支撑国内相关工业品价格，预计PPI同比降幅逐步收敛。风险提示：需求复苏不及预期、国际大宗商品价格波动超预期。', 'authorid': UUID('d3389991-b216-5572-82e3-6396ad6aed04'), 'sentimentScore': -0.01342424750328064, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'AP4KLSK462LEKR962OQPQ3QLJ7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:50:34 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'AP4KLSK462LEKR962OQPQ3QLJ7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1c5ee797-80a1-5e52-bbae-59229ad6b369'), 'title': 'Industry Chapter Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Focus on new productivity and promote high-quality development', 'author': 'Li Fan, Song Xiaowen, Wang Baoquan, Hu Guodong, Wang Hailiang', 'orgName': '招商银行股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BOHa+hJExL4ddlWBny9XSBc=', 'researcher': '李凡,宋小雯,王宝权,胡国栋,王海量', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000298611', '11000426031', '11000325650', '11000318232', '11000291134'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BOHa+hJExL4ddlWBny9XSBc=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209326_1.pdf?1710168575000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209326_1.pdf?1710168575000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Industry Chapter Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Focus on new productivity and promote high-quality development', 'originalAuthor': '李凡,宋小雯,王宝权,胡国栋,王海量', 'originalContent': '2024年3月5日，十四届全国人大二次会议在京召开，李强总理代表国务院作政府工作报告（以下简称《报告》）。2024年总量增长设定为5%左右、财政特别国债适度发力、就业和能耗目标进取，宏观稳增长意图较为明确。聚焦2024年重点工作，《报告》不仅延续“大力推进现代化产业体系建设”这一经济重心，还新增“深入实施科教兴国战略”作为第二项重点工作,体现出我国将致力于打造新质生产力；并在对外开放、农业、新型城镇化、降碳等领域以结构优化升级为政策导向，促进经济长期高质量发展。一、总览：延续稳增长信号，着力推进高质量发展在肯定2023年工作成绩的基础上，《报告》延续“稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破”的政策思路，提出2024年经济社会发展目标和重点工作，整体基调与中央经济工作会议一脉相承。（1）总量目标：积极进取GDP增速目标：5%左右。由于2024年面临更高的基数，该增速目标意味着今年经济动能需要较2023年实现进一步修复。考虑到有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱、风险隐患仍然较多、国内大循环存在堵点、国际循环存在干扰等困难和挑战仍存，实现预期目标需要政策聚焦发力、积极进取。宏观政策：财政政策适度加力、提质增效，货币政策灵活适度、精准有效，与中央经济工作会议表述一致。值得关注的结构性特征在于，财政政策方面，中央财政加大发力。从今年开始，拟连续几年发行专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设的超长期特别国债，中央加杠杆的政策方向具有可持续性。聚焦2024年，1万亿元超长期特别国债发行，叠加去年10月增发的万亿国债陆续形成实物工作量，有望对基建形成支撑。货币政策方面，结构调节重在提升效能。直面金融体系“资金空转”现象，《报告》明确指出要畅通货币政策传导机制。同时，信贷投放要提升质量，重点发展“五篇大文章”。另外，城镇调查失业率、CPI涨幅、居民收入等预期目标与2023年政府工作报告一致；而城镇新增就业和能耗目标则较2023年更为进取。（2）产业政策：高质发展，统筹配合整体看，围绕高质量发展主线展开部署。今年《报告》的重点任务安排基本延续了中央经济工作会议的部署，体现了政策的连续性。高质量发展依然是各领域的工作主线，这主要是因为近年来经济增速的放缓反映出资本产出效率下滑的内在问题，引导各领域结构升级将有望注入经济增长新动力。横向看，不同领域之间的政策统筹性强。1）培育壮大新型消费与现代化产业体系建设：《报告》指出要“实施数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费促进政策”，这些新型消费的发展离不开传统产业高端化、智能化、绿色化的转型升级；智能家居、文娱旅游、体育赛事、国货“潮品”等新增长点，及智能网联新能源汽车、电子产品等大宗消费，均需依托于现代服务业与先进制造业的深度融合，符合现代化产业体系建设的融合化趋势。2）科教兴国战略与新质生产力：科教兴国战略的核心要义是教育、科技、人才统筹推进，与创新驱动发展战略密不可分，是新质生产力的发展引擎。3）扩大有效投资与城乡融合发展：政府投资要重点支持新型基础设施，鼓励民间资本参与重大项目建设，与新型城镇化下的城市更新行动和县域经济密切相关。具体看，细节丰富，有助于政策精准发力。相较于中央经济工作会议，《报告》对于多领域的产业政策部署进行了细化和丰富，我们将在下文对主要领域做展开分析。', 'content': 'On March 5, 2024, the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress was held in Beijing. Premier Li Qiang delivered a government work report (hereinafter referred to as the \"Report\") on behalf of the State Council. The total growth in 2024 is set to be around 5%, fiscal and special government debt will be deployed appropriately, employment and energy consumption targets are aggressive, and the intention to stabilize macroeconomic growth is relatively clear. Focusing on the key tasks in 2024, the \"Report\" not only continues the economic focus of \"vigorously promoting the construction of a modern industrial system\", but also adds \"in-depth implementation of the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education\" as the second key task, reflecting our country\\'s commitment to creating new quality Productivity; and in the fields of opening up, agriculture, new urbanization, carbon reduction and other fields, we will take structural optimization and upgrading as policy guidance to promote long-term high-quality economic development. 1. Overview: Continue the signal of stable growth and strive to promote high-quality development. On the basis of affirming the work achievements in 2023, the \"Report\" continues the policy thinking of \"seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through advancement, and establishing first before breaking\", and proposes 2024 The overall tone of the economic and social development goals and key tasks for the year is consistent with that of the Central Economic Work Conference. (1) Aggregate target: Aggressive GDP growth target: around 5%. Since 2024 faces a higher base, this growth target means that the economic momentum this year needs to be further restored compared with 2023. Considering that difficulties and challenges such as insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, many hidden risks, blockages in the domestic cycle, and interference in the international cycle still exist, achieving the expected goals requires focused policies and proactive policies. Enterprising. Macroeconomic policy: Fiscal policy will be moderately strengthened to improve quality and efficiency, and monetary policy will be flexible, moderate, precise and effective, consistent with the statement of the Central Economic Work Conference. The structural feature worthy of attention is that in terms of fiscal policy, the central government has stepped up its efforts. Beginning this year, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years specifically for the implementation of major national strategies and the construction of security capabilities in key areas. The policy direction of the central government to increase leverage is sustainable. Focusing on 2024, the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, combined with the additional trillions of treasury bonds issued in October last year, has gradually formed a physical workload, which is expected to support infrastructure construction. In terms of monetary policy, structural adjustment focuses on improving efficiency. Faced with the phenomenon of \"idle funds\" in the financial system, the \"Report\" clearly points out the need to unblock the monetary policy transmission mechanism. At the same time, the quality of credit extension must be improved, focusing on the development of \"five major articles\". In addition, expected targets such as urban surveyed unemployment rate, CPI growth, and residents\\' income are consistent with the 2023 government work report; while the targets for new urban employment and energy consumption are more aggressive than in 2023. (2) Industrial policy: high-quality development, overall planning and coordination, and deployment around the main line of high-quality development. The key task arrangements in this year\\'s \"Report\" basically continue the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference, reflecting the continuity of policies. High-quality development is still the main line of work in various fields. This is mainly because the slowdown in economic growth in recent years reflects the inherent problem of declining capital output efficiency. Guiding structural upgrades in various fields is expected to inject new impetus into economic growth. From a horizontal perspective, policies in different fields have strong co-ordination. 1) Cultivate and strengthen new consumption and modern industrial system construction: The \"Report\" points out that it is necessary to \"implement digital consumption, green consumption, and healthy consumption promotion policies.\" The development of these new consumptions is inseparable from the high-end, intelligent, and green traditional industries. Transformation and upgrading; new growth points such as smart homes, entertainment and tourism, sports events, domestic \"trendy products\", and bulk consumption such as intelligent connected new energy vehicles and electronic products all need to rely on the deep integration of modern service industries and advanced manufacturing , in line with the integration trend of modern industrial system construction. 2) The strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education and new productive forces: The core essence of the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education is the coordinated advancement of education, science and technology, and talent. It is inseparable from the innovation-driven development strategy and is the development engine of new productive forces. 3) Expand effective investment and integrated urban and rural development: Government investment should focus on supporting new infrastructure and encourage private capital to participate in the construction of major projects, which is closely related to urban renewal actions and county economies under new urbanization. Looking at it specifically, the details are rich, which helps the policy to be implemented accurately. Compared with the Central Economic Work Conference, the \"Report\" has refined and enriched the deployment of industrial policies in many fields. We will analyze the main fields below.', 'authorid': UUID('bad6aac6-927c-57b9-ae24-cb894945890f'), 'sentimentScore': 0.3965745707973838, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GV47PDGI5CNV9DQGSLU136BJRFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:50:37 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GV47PDGI5CNV9DQGSLU136BJRFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6a27a46e-0c75-5c3b-bc14-e735ed8a7d23'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\" - Deepening Reform: Focus on Four Key Areas and Enhance Endogenous Motivation for Development', 'author': 'Cheng Weibo , Dai Xiaodi', 'orgName': '招商银行股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BCjbTADAPshi7TBmuq1OB5g=', 'researcher': '程伟波,戴筱頔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000295634', '11000380344'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BCjbTADAPshi7TBmuq1OB5g=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209325_1.pdf?1710170586000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209325_1.pdf?1710170586000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\" - Deepening Reform: Focus on Four Key Areas and Enhance Endogenous Motivation for Development', 'originalAuthor': '程伟波,戴筱頔', 'originalContent': '2024年政府工作报告把“坚定不移深化改革,增强发展内生动力”作为第四大任务，推进重点领域和关键环节改革攻坚，处理好政府与市场的关系。“深化改革”将成为2024年政府工作的关键词之一。一、深化改革成为《报告》突出亮点秉承前期会议1精神，本次政府工作报告高度强调“深化改革”，旨在增强发展的内生动能，全面深化改革将是全年的重要任务。与上年政府工作任务相比，一是单独成节，重要性进一步提升。在2023年政府工作报告中，改革相关内容则是散落于“切实落实‘两个毫不动摇’”、“有效防范化解重大经济金融风险”、“保障基本民生和发展社会事业”等章节。二是阐述更为全面，系统性要求更高。上年的改革部署集中在细分领域，今年则是更体系化地从参与主体、机制体制、重点领域等维度进行工作部署。二、总体基调：稳中求进，突出重大关系统筹协调总体基调稳中求进、较为积极，预计更大力度、更深层次的改革将会到来。从目标导向上来看，聚焦对内改革、重点领域和关键环节,最终目标是“推动构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制”。从改革理念来看，协调好改革中的重大关系贯穿始终，一是处理好政府与市场的关系。习近平总书记指出，经济体制改革的核心问题是“处理好政府和市场关系”，《报告》在“政策取向”和“深化改革”中也强调要“促进有效市场和有为政府更好结合”，让市场在资源配置中发挥“决定性作用”，同时“更好发挥政府作用”。二是处理好央地关系、地区间等关系，主要在深化财税体制改革、构建全国统一的大市场等任务中有所映射，如前者重点之一是优化中央地方事权财权匹配机制，后者核心是打破地区封锁、部门分割。三、2024年重点领域第一，国资国企改革仍为重点。2024年是新一轮国有企业改革深化提升行动的攻坚之年，需要完成重点任务的70%以上。本次政府工作报告围绕国资国企改革做了四方面的部署，较上年更为详实，一是“完善中国特色现代企业制度”。二是“打造更多世界一流企业”，这主要是央企的改革任务。三是“增强核心功能、提高核心竞争力”，较上年增加“核心功能”，以服务国家战略为导向的功能性改革是重点。国资国企要在科技创新、产业控制和安全支撑上发挥关键作用。结合前期相关政策，现代化产业体系建设、科技创新等是核心点，具体措施包括培育战新产业和未来产业、促进产业链供应链融通、打造创新联合体、产业和科创投资、强化能源资源安全保障等。四是“优化国有经济布局”，这并非新提法，但过往关于如何优化、往哪优化较为模糊。《报告》首次提出要“建立国有经济布局优化和结构调整指引制度”，将会进一步厘清改革重点，有助于国央企优化布局有章可循、考核有据可依，建议重点关注。同时还需关注国资国企改革与财税体制改革的结合。2023年11月中央全面深化改革委员会第三次会议上审议通过《关于进一步完善国有资本经营预算制度的意见》。国有资本经营预算制度改革作为新一轮财税体制改革的先行军，核心内容是完善收益上交机制，提升预算支出效能。改革的落实，或将有利于进一步厘清政府和国企间的经济利益分配关系，有利于做大国有资本经营预算蛋糕、提升对财政的贡献，有利于优化支出、推进国企聚焦重要行业和关键领域。第二，进一步促进多种所有制经济共同发展。《报告》强调，“国有企业、民营企业、外资企业都是现代化建设的重���力量”，传递了更强的积极信号，旨在以改革激发各类经济主体动力活力，增强市场信心。民营经济领域在上年工作报告中，也是重点。2023年7月国务院出台了《中共中央国务院关于促进民营经济发展壮大的意见》2，提出31条重点工作。今年重点是细化和落实，将在市场准入、要素获取、公平执法、权益保护等方面加大改革，在促进民企融资、帮扶个体工商户、降低物流成本、防范化解拖欠企业账款等方面开展行动，营商环境有望进一步改善。外资经济领域的改革较上年更为突出，相关表述集中在第五大重点任务（扩大高水平开放）3中，着力点在于破除市场壁垒、优化营商环境、深化对外开放重点领域体制机制改革，从而增强我国对外商投资的吸引力，提高利用外资质量。第三，全国统一大市场建设或将提速。2022年《中共中央国务院关于加快建设全国统一大市场的意见》发布，旨在畅通国内大循环，但在实际推进中困难较多、进度较缓。上年工作报告中未做重点部署，此次重提，体现了中央破除各种障碍、加快建设全国统一大市场的决心。结合前期会议精神，预计今年有三大改革重点：一是推进破除各种形式的地方保护、市场分割、招商引资不当竞争等，如近年来，地方政府出现的招商引资竞争变形走样、过度“内卷”现象。针对以上突出问题，《报告》提出要开展专项行动，或将对区域间的竞合关系产生一定影响。二是深化要素市场化配置综合改革试点，建议重点关注土地要素、数据要素、创新要素、物流体系等方面的改革进展。以土地要素为例，预计土地要素跨区域再配置、建设用地和补充耕地指标交易市场建设将是探索重点。2月19日召开的中央全面深化改革委员会第四次会议强调，要“建立同宏观制度、区域发展更加高效衔接的土地管理制度”，“增强土地要素对优势地区高质量发展保障能力”。随着相关工作的有序推进，或将缓解当前发达地区建设用地指标欠缺的难题，有助于各地形成优势互补、区域协调发展的新格局。三是加强监管，如加强对招投标市场的规范和管理,维护公平竞争的市场秩序。第四，谋划落实财税、金融等重点领域改革。金融领域改革进度相对更快。2023年已明确金融监管体制改革等的顶层设计，并基本完成中央层面大的机构改革方案，2024年重点是加速“落实”。“新一轮财税体制改革”4则以“谋划”为主，整体方案尚待出台。在地方财政收入增长乏力、财政支出压力较大的背景下，如何厘清政府和市场关系，界定政府职责边界，如何理顺央地政府财政关系，有望成为重点方向。此外，报告提及“加大对高质量发展的财税金融支持”，预计相关资源将会进一步往高质量发展领域倾斜；首次提出“建设高水平社会主义市场经济体制改革先行区”，党的二十大报告将“构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制”作为加快构建新发展格局、着力推动高质量发展的重要战略任务，先行区的建设将为深化相关领域改革积累经验。“先行区”究竟花落何处值得关注。', 'content': '2024年政府工作报告把“坚定不移深化改革,增强发展内生动力”作为第四大任务，推进重点领域和关键环节改革攻坚，处理好政府与市场的关系。“深化改革”将成为2024年政府工作的关键词之一。一、深化改革成为《报告》突出亮点秉承前期会议1精神，本次政府工作报告高度强调“深化改革”，旨在增强发展的内生动能，全面深化改革将是全年的重要任务。与上年政府工作任务相比，一是单独成节，重要性进一步提升。在2023年政府工作报告中，改革相关内容则是散落于“切实落实‘两个毫不动摇’”、“有效防范化解重大经济金融风险”、“保障基本民生和发展社会事业”等章节。二是阐述更为全面，系统性要求更高。上年的改革部署集中在细分领域，今年则是更体系化地从参与主体、机制体制、重点领域等维度进行工作部署。二、总体基调：稳中求进，突出重大关系统筹协调总体基调稳中求进、较为积极，预计更大力度、更深层次的改革将会到来。从目标导向上来看，聚焦对内改革、重点领域和关键环节,最终目标是“推动构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制”。从改革理念来看，协调好改革中的重大关系贯穿始终，一是处理好政府与市场的关系。习近平总书记指出，经济体制改革的核心问题是“处理好政府和市场关系”，《报告》在“政策取向”和“深化改革”中也强调要“促进有效市场和有为政府更好结合”，���市场在资源配置中发挥“决定性作用”，同时“更好发挥政府作用”。二是处理好央地关系、地区间等关系，主要在深化财税体制改革、构建全国统一的大市场等任务中有所映射，如前者重点之一是优化中央地方事权财权匹配机制，后者核心是打破地区封锁、部门分割。三、2024年重点领域第一，国资国企改革仍为重点。2024年是新一轮国有企业改革深化提升行动的攻坚之年，需要完成重点任务的70%以上。本次政府工作报告围绕国资国企改革做了四方面的部署，较上年更为详实，一是“完善中国特色现代企业制度”。二是“打造更多世界一流企业”，这主要是央企的改革任务。三是“增强核心功能、提高核心竞争力”，较上年增加“核心功能”，以服务国家战略为导向的功能性改革是重点。国资国企要在科技创新、产业控制和安全支撑上发挥关键作用。结合前期相关政策，现代化产业体系建设、科技创新等是核心点，具体措施包括培育战新产业和未来产业、促进产业链供应链融通、打造创新联合体、产业和科创投资、强化能源资源安全保障等。四是“优化国有经济布局”，这并非新提法，但过往关于如何优化、往哪优化较为模糊。《报告》首次提出要“建立国有经济布局优化和结构调整指引制度”，将会进一步厘清改革重点，有助于国央企优化布局有章可循、考核有据可依，建议重点关注。同时还需关注国资国企改革与财税体制改革的结合。2023年11月中央全面深化改革委员会第三次会议上审议通过《关于进一步完善国有资本经营预算制度的意见》。国有资本经营预算制度改革作为新一轮财税体制改革的先行军，核心内容是完善收益上交机制，提升预算支出效能。改革的落实，或将有利于进一步厘清政府和国企间的经济利益分配关系，有利于做大国有资本经营预算蛋糕、提升对财政的贡献，有利于优化支出、推进国企聚焦重要行业和关键领域。第二，进一步促进多种所有制经济共同发展。《报告》强调，“国有企业、民营企业、外资企业都是现代化建设的重要力量”，传递了更强的积极信号，旨在以改革激发各类经济主体动力活力，增强市场信心。民营经济领域在上年工作报告中，也是重点。2023年7月国务院出台了《中共中央国务院关于促进民营经济发展壮大的意见》2，提出31条重点工作。今年重点是细化和落实，将在市场准入、要素获取、公平执法、权益保护等方面加大改革，在促进民企融资、帮扶个体工商户、降低物流成本、防范化解拖欠企业账款等方面开展行动，营商环境有望进一步改善。外资经济领域的改革较上年更为突出，相关表述集中在第五大重点任务（扩大高水平开放）3中，着力点在于破除市场壁垒、优化营商环境、深化对外开放重点领域体制机制改革，从而增强我国对外商投资的吸引力，提高利用外资质量。第三，全国统一大市场建设或将提速。2022年《中共中央国务院关于加快建设全国统一大市场的意见》发布，旨在畅通国内大循环，但在实际推进中困难较多、进度较缓。上年工作报告中未做重点部署，此次重提，体现了中央破除各种障碍、加快建设全国统一大市场的决心。结合前期会议精神，预计今年有三大改革重点：一是推进破除各种形式的地方保护、市场分割、招商引资不当竞争等，如近年来，地方政府出现的招商引资竞争变形走样、过度“内卷”现象。针对以上突出问题，《报告》提出要开展专项行动，或将对区域间的竞合关系产生一定影响。二是深化要素市场化配置综合改革试点，建议重点关注土地要素、数据要素、创新要素、物流体系等方面的改革进展。以土地要素为例，预计土地要素跨区域再配置、建设用地和补充耕地指标交易市场建设将是探索重点。2月19日召开的中央全面深化改革委员会第四次会议强调，要“建立同宏观制度、区域发展更加高效衔接的土地管理制度”，“增强土地要素对优势地区高质量发展保障能力”。随着相关工作的有序推进，或将缓解当前发达地区建设用地指标欠缺的难题，有助于各地形成优势互补、区域协调发展的新格局。三是加强监管，如加强对招投标市场的规范和管理,维护公平竞争的市场秩序。第四，谋划落实财税、金融等重点领域改革。金融领域改革进度相对更快。2023年已明确金融监管体制改革等的顶层设计，并基本完成中央层面大的机构改革方案，2024年重点是加速“落实”。“新一轮财税体制改革”4则以“谋划”为主，整体方案��待出台。在地方财政收入增长乏力、财政支出压力较大的背景下，如何厘清政府和市场关系，界定政府职责边界，如何理顺央地政府财政关系，有望成为重点方向。此外，报告提及“加大对高质量发展的财税金融支持”，预计相关资源将会进一步往高质量发展领域倾斜；首次提出“建设高水平社会主义市场经济体制改革先行区”，党的二十大报告将“构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制”作为加快构建新发展格局、着力推动高质量发展的重要战略任务，先行区的建设将为深化相关领域改革积累经验。“先行区”究竟花落何处值得关注。', 'authorid': UUID('180d1b37-2a7b-577a-958b-e5106086150f'), 'sentimentScore': 0.07921616360545158, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KUMHA3KCBCNKPVPU2BHHMGQELFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:50:41 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KUMHA3KCBCNKPVPU2BHHMGQELFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7d318acf-8363-548f-a4d6-89f82d8288b6'), 'title': 'Capital Market Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Opportunities for A-shares lie in \"new productivity\", with fixed income and exchange rate stability as the main focus', 'author': 'Liu Dongliang, Bai Yuhan, Su Chang, Chen Qiao, Zhao Yu', 'orgName': '招商银行股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BKQT7ZozBJvE8F6TgOWySz0=', 'researcher': '刘东亮,柏禹含,苏畅,陈峤,赵宇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177869', '11000297834', '11000369721', '11000316145', '11000393768'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BKQT7ZozBJvE8F6TgOWySz0=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209323_1.pdf?1710168745000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209323_1.pdf?1710168745000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Capital Market Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Opportunities for A-shares lie in \"new productivity\", with fixed income and exchange rate stability as the main focus', 'originalAuthor': '刘东亮,柏禹含,苏畅,陈峤,赵宇', 'originalContent': '《政府工作报告》（以下简称《报告》）中的经济增长目标（5%左右）、财政政策（适度加力、提质增效，3%赤字率+1万亿特别国债+3.9万亿专项债）和货币政策（灵活适度、精准有效）的定调，显示宏观政策以稳为主，不会搞强刺激，基本符合此前资本市场的预期，而房地产、地方化债等领域政策亦未见超预期内容。但“新质生产力”成为今年政府工作任务之首，一方面这有利于推动中国经济继续向高质量发展转型，另一方面这也将对资本市场特别是A股的结构性机会产生一定影响。《报告》对资本市场着墨不多，“增强资本市场内在稳定性”是较为突出的提法。3月5日上午议程结束后，境内股债汇市场未见大的波动，各资产表现以稳为主。截至下午收盘，10年期国债利率下行3bp，人民币汇率维持在7.199，上证指数上涨0.28%，沪深300上涨0.7%。一、固收市场：债券利率位于历史低位，关注产品净值波动的可能《报告》对经济增长5%左右的定调，显示经济增长未超市场预期，这有利于债券利率延续当前震荡下行的趋势。但是考虑到债券利率已处在历史低位，在缺少更多利好刺激的背景下，长期国债利率下行空间有所收窄，短期大概率以低位震荡为主。需要提示的是，前期超长期限国债利率下行偏多，30年期国债利率已在2.5%（1年期MLF利率）附近，超长期国债交易略显拥挤，短期或有小幅调整的风险。相比之下，短债性价比更高一些，从防御角度来看，如遇调整，短债利率调整幅度有限。从盈利角度来看，资金利率或有一定的下行空间，短债也有望受益。基于上述判断，固收产品净值的波动可能会略有加大，短债类产品风险收益比或更优，中长债理财或债基的净值或进入波动平台期，建议继续持有，等待下一轮债市上涨。固收增强产品建议关注固收+红利策略。二、外汇市场：人民币汇率将以双向波动为主《报告》中“增强资本市场内在稳定性”和“保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定”的表述，确认了稳汇率政策将延续。从2023年下半年开始，汇率主管层面持续推出稳汇率措施，例如强化逆周期调节因子、发行境外央票、下调金���机构外汇存款准备金率、上调跨境融资宏观审慎调节参数等，这些措施使得人民币整体走势已经相对稳定，市场预期也有所改善。不过，中美利差对汇率所带来的压力仍需关注。尽管美联储大概率今年会启动降息，中美利差深度倒挂的局面将有所改善，但考虑到美国经济的韧性以及美国通胀的粘性，其货币政策转向的节奏将会较慢。同时，国内货币政策宽松预期暂难改变，国内利率水平可能进一步下行。这意味着，中美利差年内对人民币仍会构成一定压力。但在稳汇率调控政策的支持下，人民币的走势预计会相对稳定，双向波动将是基准情形。三、A股市场：增强资本市场内在稳定性已上升到国家政策层面，结构性机会在科技和高股息《报告》强调要“增强资本市场内在稳定性”，这意味着A股不仅要规模扩张，更要提质增效、行稳致远，这是资本市场总体发展思路的转变。增强资本市场内在稳定性，需要市场的高质量发展，健全的基础制度，以及参与主体的理性成熟。根据此前国常会的表述，具体措施包括：健全完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡，大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度，以及加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，打造规范透明的市场环境。预计上述措施，将减小A股市场波动，提高A股的长期回报水平，对于投资者而言，这既是挑战，更是机遇。中期来看，A股估值位于历史低位，股票供求关系有所改善，内外宏观政策趋于宽松，无风险利率持续下行，名义经济增速二季度将有所扩张，大盘一季度筑底后二季度或迎来改观。结构上，《报告》将现代化产业体系与新质生产力、科教兴国放在了重点工作的前两位，科技板块的重要性更加凸显。结合增强资本市场内在稳定性，政策主线对应到股票市场投资的两大配置方向：科技和高股息。科技行业是具备长期产业政策支持的成长性行业，且政策支持力度不断加大。从上市公司质量、价值实现以及稳定投资回报的角度来说，高股息方向具备长期投资价值。配置上，高股息和科技这两大方向可均衡配置，以应对市场轮动的不确定性。', 'content': 'The \"Government Work Report\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Report\") contains the economic growth target (around 5%), fiscal policy (appropriate strengthening, quality improvement and efficiency improvement, 3% deficit rate + 1 trillion special national debt + 3.9 trillion special projects Debt) and monetary policy (flexible, appropriate, precise and effective) show that the macro policy focuses on stability and will not engage in strong stimulus, which is basically in line with the previous expectations of the capital market, while policies in real estate, localized debt and other fields have also not changed. Content beyond expectations. However, \"new quality productivity\" has become the top government task this year. On the one hand, this will help promote the continued transformation of China\\'s economy to high-quality development. On the other hand, it will also have a certain impact on the structural opportunities of the capital market, especially A-shares. The \"Report\" does not mention much about the capital market, and \"enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market\" is a more prominent formulation. After the agenda ended on the morning of March 5, there were no major fluctuations in the domestic stock, bond and foreign exchange markets, and the performance of various assets was mainly stable. As of the afternoon close, the 10-year government bond interest rate had dropped by 3bp, the RMB exchange rate remained at 7.199, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.28%, and the CSI 300 rose by 0.7%. 1. Fixed-income market: Bond interest rates are at historically low levels, and attention should be paid to the possibility of fluctuations in the net value of products. The \"Report\" sets the tone for economic growth of about 5%, showing that economic growth has not exceeded market expectations, which is conducive to the continuation of the current downward trend in bond interest rates. . However, considering that bond interest rates are already at historically low levels, and in the absence of more positive stimulus, the downside space for long-term government bond interest rates has narrowed, and there is a high probability that short-term fluctuations will mainly occur at low levels. It should be noted that the interest rate of ultra-long-term government bonds has fallen too much in the early stage. The interest rate of 30-year government bonds is already around 2.5% (the 1-year MLF interest rate). The trading of ultra-long-term government bonds is slightly crowded, and there may be a risk of slight adjustment in the short term. In comparison, short-term bonds are more cost-effective. From a defensive perspective, in the event of an adjustment, the interest rate adjustment range of short-term bonds is limited. From a profit perspective, funding rates may have some room for decline, and short-term bonds are also expected to benefit. Based on the above judgment, the fluctuation of the net value of fixed-income products may increase slightly, the risk-return ratio of short-term debt products may be better, and the net value of medium- and long-term debt financial management or debt funds may enter a fluctuation plateau period. It is recommended to continue to hold and wait for the next step. A bond market rally. For fixed income enhanced products, it is recommended to pay attention to the fixed income + dividend strategy. 2. Foreign exchange market: The RMB exchange rate will mainly fluctuate in both directions. The statements in the \"Report\" about \"enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market\" and \"maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level\" confirm that the policy of stabilizing the exchange rate will continue. Starting from the second half of 2023, the exchange rate authorities will continue to introduce measures to stabilize the exchange rate, such as strengthening countercyclical adjustment factors, issuing overseas central bank bills, lowering the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, and raising macro-prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing. These measures have made The overall trend of the RMB has been relatively stable, and market expectations have also improved. However, the pressure on the exchange rate caused by the interest rate gap between China and the United States still needs attention. Although the Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates this year and the deep inversion of interest rates between China and the United States will improve, its monetary policy shift will be slower given the resilience of the U.S. economy and the stickiness of U.S. inflation. At the same time, domestic monetary policy easing expectations are difficult to change for the time being, and domestic interest rates may fall further. This means that the interest rate gap between China and the United States will still put certain pressure on the RMB during the year. However, with the support of stable exchange rate control policies, the trend of the RMB is expected to be relatively stable, and two-way fluctuations will be the baseline scenario. 3. A-share market: Enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market has risen to the level of national policy. Structural opportunities lie in technology and high dividends. The \"Report\" emphasizes the need to \"enhance the inherent stability of the capital market\", which means that A-shares must not only expand in scale. , it is also necessary to improve quality and efficiency, and achieve stable and long-term development. This is a change in the overall development thinking of the capital market. Enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market requires high-quality development of the market, sound basic systems, and rational maturity of participating entities. According to the previous statement of the National Standing Committee, specific measures include: improving the basic system of the capital market, paying more attention to the dynamic balance of investment and financing, vigorously improving the quality and investment value of listed companies, increasing the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, and strengthening capital market supervision, and cracking down on illegal activities. There will be \"zero tolerance\" for violations and create a standardized and transparent market environment. It is expected that the above measures will reduce the volatility of the A-share market and improve the long-term return level of A-shares. For investors, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. In the medium term, A-share valuations are at historically low levels, stock supply and demand have improved, internal and external macroeconomic policies have become looser, risk-free interest rates continue to decline, nominal economic growth will expand in the second quarter, and the market will bottom in the second quarter. The quarter may see a change. Structurally, the \"Report\" places the modern industrial system, new productive forces, and rejuvenating the country through science and education as the top two priorities, and the importance of the science and technology sector is even more prominent. Combined with enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market, the main policy lines correspond to the two major allocation directions of stock market investment: technology and high dividends. The technology industry is a growth industry with long-term industrial policy support, and policy support is constantly increasing. From the perspective of the quality of listed companies, value realization and stable investment returns, high dividends have long-term investment value. In terms of allocation, the two major directions of high dividends and technology can be allocated in a balanced manner to cope with the uncertainty of market rotation.', 'authorid': UUID('91d757e6-c665-5019-8337-bbd867ab1b61'), 'sentimentScore': 0.2373222801834345, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'HN9LR6JBGTVGS5CJCKUBKKBELBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:50:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'HN9LR6JBGTVGS5CJCKUBKKBELBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2445fce0-ab82-535b-a95b-8dccccbc0ae7'), 'title': 'Regional Economy Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": New urbanization emphasizes people-centeredness, and regional development emphasizes comparative advantages.', 'author': 'Cheng Weibo, Li Weilin, Liu Jiangwei', 'orgName': '招商银行', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BJ5tKgoR8P2yqQHVD76+FBY=', 'researcher': '程伟波,李蔚林,刘江伟', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000295634', '11000410033', '11000460133'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BJ5tKgoR8P2yqQHVD76+FBY=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209318_1.pdf?1710169625000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209318_1.pdf?1710169625000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Regional Economy Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": New urbanization emphasizes people-centeredness, and regional development emphasizes comparative advantages.', 'originalAuthor': '程伟波,李蔚林,刘江伟', 'originalContent': '与往年相比，2024年《政府工作报告》（以下简称《报告》）将“城乡融合与区域协调发展”单列，成为与“扩大国内需求”并列的部分。这种论述方式与党的二十大工作报告以及中央经济工作会议是一致的。《报告》将新型城镇化与区域协调发展置于“优化经济布局”的视角下展开，其政策更具体系性，较往年增加了更多的具体工作部署。新型城镇化建设战略行动继续深入实施，突出以人为本的新型城镇化建设有关举措，户籍制度改革或将为其注入政策动力。区域协调发展强调发挥各地区比较优势，经济发展优势地区要发挥高质量发展动力源的作用，战略腹地建设或为中西部区域发展带来新机遇；雄安新区进入新发展阶段以及优化主体功能区规划也是本部分的重要关注点。一、新型城镇化建设举措突出以人为本《报告》指出，“我国城镇化还有很大发展提升空间，要促进各类要素双向流动，形成城乡融合发展新格局”。这明确了新型城镇化建设还具有发展空间，要继续推动城乡融合发展新格局的进程。今年在城镇化建设部分没有涉及房地产相关内容，在既有新型城镇化战略行动基础上，更加突出了“以人为本”的各项举措；政策方面把加快农业转移人口市民化摆在突出位置，重点部署了“户籍制度改革”。一是继续深入实施新型城镇化战略行动。《报告》体现了新型城镇化战略行动的政策延续性，继续将县城作为新型城镇化建设的重要载体；继续注重以城市群、都市圈为依托促进大中小城市协调发展；继续将成渝地区双城经济圈建设作为新型城镇化建设的区域重点；继续稳步实施城市更新行动,并强调“推进‘平急两用’公共基础设施建设和城中村改造”。二是将人为本的新型城镇化建设举措进一步做实。在城镇化建设中关注“以人为本”并不是新的政策提法，但在本年度政府工作报告进行了着重强调，明确“新型城镇化要处处体现以人为本”。去年底召开的国务院常务会议曾研究了深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化有关举措，《报告》在此方面做了更加具体的部署，明确要“加快完善地下管网,推动解决老旧小区加装电梯、停车等难题”。三是通过户籍制度改革加快农业转移人口市民化。《报告》指出要“把加快农业转移人口市民化摆在突出位置”，户籍制度改革或成为加速这一进程的关键。通过“完善‘人地钱’挂钩政策,让有意愿的进城农民工在城镇落户,推动未落户常住人口平等享受城镇基本公共服务”。户籍制度改革或将释放一波政策红利，为新型城镇化建设找到新的突破，为扩大内需提供新的支撑点。二、区域协调发展强调发挥各地区比较优势《报告》在“提高区域协调发展水平”部分延续了国民经济“十四五”规划及往年政府工作报告对区域重大战略、区域协调发展战略、特殊类型地区的政策论述，指出“充分发挥各地区比较优势,按照主体功能定位,积极融入和服务构建新发展格局”。较往年，区域协调发展主要有以下五方面变化。一是强调发挥各地区的比较优势。“发挥各地区比较优势”是国民经济“十四五”规划在“优化国土空间开发保护格局”部分既有的政策部署，但在近年的政府工作报告中均未提及。今年《报告》明确要“充分发挥各地区比较优势”，而往年出提及较多的“区域发展平衡性”则没有出现，体现了当前经济环境下新的区域发展导向。二是强调发挥经济发展优势地区的作用。《报告》强调“支持京津冀、长三角、粤港澳大湾区等经济发展优势地区更好发挥高质量发展动力源作用”。国民经济“十四五”规划对“开拓高质量发展的重要动力源”有过论述，指出要“以中心城市和城市群等经济发展优势区域为重点，增强经济和人口承载能力，带动全国经济效率整体提升”。《报告》提及此内容，说明中央今年对经济发展优势地区在发展中的作用进行了重点的部署，这与中央经济工作会议强调“经济大省要真正挑起大梁,为稳定全国经济作出更大贡献”是一致的。三是布局国家战略腹地建设。区域协调发展部分的另外一个关注点是对“加强国家战略腹地建设”的部署。《报告》将“加强国家战略腹地建设”作为新时代重大生产力布局优化的战略举措。这或将成为中西部区域发展的新机遇。如该政策推动有力，涉及生产力布局的重大项目与政策或将惠及中西部区域，成为加速中西部区域发展的新引擎。四是对雄安新区建设提出更高更具体的要求。以往政府工作报告对雄安新区的描述为“高标准高质量建设”，本次《报告》提出了更加具体的要求，要“抓好标志性项目在雄安新区落地建设”。自2017年4月1日雄安新区设立以来，其现代化城市建设雏形初显。2023年5月，习近平总书记在调研时强调，雄安新区已进入大规模建设与承接北京非首都功能疏解并重阶段。雄安新区在我国经济版图中扮演的角色将更加清晰、更加具体。五是优化主体功能区规划或将提上日程。主体功能区规划对于我国空间发展统筹协调、保障国家重大发展战略落地意义重大。党的二十大报告指出，“要健全主体功能区制度，优化国土空间发展格局”。《报告》明确了要“制定主体功能区优化实施规划”。这与中央全面深化改革委员会第四次会议所强调的“要统筹好区域经济布局和国土空间利用，立足各地功能定位和资源禀赋，细化土地管理政策单元，提高资源开发利用水平，更好发挥优势地区示范引领作用”的政策安排是相呼应的。优化主体功能区规划的工作或已正式提上相关部委的日程。三、2024年区域经济展望各省2024年增长目标更加审慎务实，将支撑全国5%左右的增长目标达成。31个省份的政府工作报告增长目标集中在5%-6%的区间，仅海南（8.5%左右）、西藏（8.5%左右）、新疆（6.5%左右）和天津（4.5%左右）例外，总体上仍呈现中西部增长目标领先的特征。16个省份增长目标较2023年有所下调，仅北京、天津、吉林、浙江四个省份上调，反映出各省政府经济发展更加审慎务实的取向。31个省份的加权（权重为2023年GDP）目标增速为5.4%，将对全国经济增长目标的达成形成支撑。经济大省体现“真正挑起大梁”的担当。在超过半数省份下调增长目标的背景下，粤苏鲁浙川豫6个经济大省中仅河南下调目标，浙江更是逆势将增长目标上调0.5个百分点，体现出经济大省对中央经济工作会议“经济大省要真正挑起大梁，为稳定全国经济做出更大贡献”精神的积极响应。6省2023年GDP合计占全国的44%，2024年加权目标增速为5.2%，将在稳定全国经济、支撑5%左右的增长目标达成中发挥关键作用。', 'content': '与往年相比，2024年《政府工作报告》（以下简称《报告》）将“城乡融合与区域协调发展”单列，成为与“扩大国内需求”并列的部分。这种论述方式与党的二十大工作报告以及中央经济工作会议是一致的。《报告》将新型城镇化与区域协调发展置于“优化经济布局”的视角下展开，其政策更具体系性，较往年增加了更多的具体工作部署。新型城镇化建设战略行动继续深入实施，突出以人为本的新型城镇化建设有关举措，户籍制度改革或将为其注入政策动力。区域协调发展强调发挥各地区比较优势，经济发展优势地区要发挥高质量发展动力源的作用，战略腹地建设或为中西部区域发展带来新机遇；雄安新区进入新发展阶段以及优化主体功能区规划也是本部分的重要关注点。一、新型城镇化建设举措突出以人为本《报告》指出，“我国城镇化还有很大发展提升空间，要促进各类要素双向流动，形成城乡融合发展新格局”。这明确了新型城镇化建设还具有发展空间，要继续推动城乡融合发展新格局的进程。今年在城镇化建设部分没有涉及房地产相关内容，在既有新型城镇化战略行动基础上，更加突出了“以人为本”的各项举措；政策方面把加快农业转移人口市民化摆在突出位置，重点部署了“户籍制度改革”。一是继续深入实施新型城镇化战略行动。《报告》体现了新型城镇化战略行动的政策延续性，继续将县城作为新型城镇化建设的重要载体；继续注重以城市群、都市圈为依托促进大中小城市协调发展；继续将成渝地区双城经济圈建设作为新型城镇化建设的区域重点；继续稳步实施城市更新行动,并强调“推进‘平急两用’公共基础设施建设和城中村改造”。二是将人为本的新型城镇化建设举措进一步做实。在城镇化建设中关注“以人为本”并不是新的政策提法，但在本年度政府工作报告进行了着重强调，明确“新型城镇化要处处体现以人为本”。去年底召开的国务院常务会议曾研究了深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化有关举措，《报告》在此方面做了更加具体的部署，明确要“加快完善地下管网,推动解决老旧小区加装电梯、停车等难题”。三是通过户籍制度改革加快农业转移人口市民化。《报告》指出要“把加快农业转移人口市民化摆在突出位置”，户籍制度改革或成为加速这一进程的关键。通过“完善‘人地钱’挂钩政策,让有意愿的进城农民工在城镇落户,推动未落户常住人口平等享受城镇基本公共服务”。户籍制度改革或将释放一波政策红利，为新型城镇化建设找到新的突破，为扩大内需提供新的支撑点。二、区域协调发展强调发挥各地区比较优势《报告》在“提高区域协调发展水平”部分延续了国民经济“十四五”规划及往年政府工作报告对区域重大战略、区域协调发展战略、特殊类型地区的政策论述，指出“充分发挥各地区比较优势,按照主体功能定位,积极融入和服务构建新发展格局”。较往年，区域协调发展主要有以下五方面变化。一是强调发挥各地区的比较优势。“发挥各地区比较优势”是国民经济“十四五”规划在“优化国土空间开发保护格局”部分既有的政策部署，但在近年的政府工作报告中均未提及。今年《报告》明确要“充分发挥各地区比较优势”，而往年出提及较多的“区域发展平衡性”则没有出现，体现了当前经济环境下新的区域发展导向。二是强调发挥经济发展优势地区的作用。《报告》强调“支持京津冀、长三角、粤港澳大湾区等经济发展优势地区更好发挥高质量发展动力源作用”。国民经济“十四五”规划对“开拓高质量发展的重要动力源”有过论述，指出要“以中心城市和城市群等经济发展优势区域为重点，增强经济和人口承载能力，带动全国经济效率整体提升”。《报告》提及此内容，说明中央今年对经济发展优势地区在发展中的作用进行了重点的部署，这与中央经济工作会议强调“经济大省要真正挑起大梁,为稳定全国经济作出更大贡献”是一致的。三是布局国家战略腹地建设。区域协调发展部分的另外一个关注点是对“加强国家战略腹地建设”的部署。《报告》将“加强国家战略腹地建设”作为新时代重大生产力布局优化的战略举措。这或将成为中西部区域发展的新机遇。如该政策推动有力，涉及生产力布局的重大项目与政策或将惠及中西部区域，成为加速中西部区域发展的新引擎。四是对雄安新区建设提出更高更具体的要求。以往政府工作报告对雄安新区的描述为“高标准高质量建设”，本次《报告》提出了更加具体的要求，要“抓好标志性项目在雄安新区落地建设”。自2017年4月1日雄安新区设立以来，其现代化城市建设雏形初显。2023年5月，习近平总书记在调研时强调，雄安新区已进入大规模建设与承接北京非首都功能疏解并重阶段。雄安新区在我国经济版图中扮演的角色将更加清晰、更加具体。五是优化主体功能区规划或将提上日程。主体功能区规划对于我国空间发展统筹协调、保障国家重大发展战略落地意义重大。党的二十大报告指出，“要健全主体功能区制度，优化国土空间发展格局”。《报告》明确了要“��定主体功能区优化实施规划”。这与中央全面深化改革委员会第四次会议所强调的“要统筹好区域经济布局和国土空间利用，立足各地功能定位和资源禀赋，细化土地管理政策单元，提高资源开发利用水平，更好发挥优势地区示范引领作用”的政策安排是相呼应的。优化主体功能区规划的工作或已正式提上相关部委的日程。三、2024年区域经济展望各省2024年增长目标更加审慎务实，将支撑全国5%左右的增长目标达成。31个省份的政府工作报告增长目标集中在5%-6%的区间，仅海南（8.5%左右）、西藏（8.5%左右）、新疆（6.5%左右）和天津（4.5%左右）例外，总体上仍呈现中西部增长目标领先的特征。16个省份增长目标较2023年有所下调，仅北京、天津、吉林、浙江四个省份上调，反映出各省政府经济发展更加审慎务实的取向。31个省份的加权（权重为2023年GDP）目标增速为5.4%，将对全国经济增长目标的达成形成支撑。经济大省体现“真正挑起大梁”的担当。在超过半数省份下调增长目标的背景下，粤苏鲁浙川豫6个经济大省中仅河南下调目标，浙江更是逆势将增长目标上调0.5个百分点，体现出经济大省对中央经济工作会议“经济大省要真正挑起大梁，为稳定全国经济做出更大贡献”精神的积极响应。6省2023年GDP合计占全国的44%，2024年加权目标增速为5.2%，将在稳定全国经济、支撑5%左右的增长目标达成中发挥关键作用。', 'authorid': UUID('0b80d032-1f8d-5adb-9f2b-6a90d936e98e'), 'sentimentScore': 0.039044253528118134, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'C2TGNVFG4U6SEEHTNKEJGM07HBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:50:49 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'C2TGNVFG4U6SEEHTNKEJGM07HBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a3b12746-682e-5a34-9943-a2d0801ae4f9'), 'title': 'Comments on price data in February 2024: Can CPI continue to exceed expectations?', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Chang Yixin', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BCLOxpfFP9fEU394ECOi55k=', 'researcher': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000387731'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BCLOxpfFP9fEU394ECOi55k=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209316_1.pdf?1710147936000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209316_1.pdf?1710147936000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on price data in February 2024: Can CPI continue to exceed expectations?', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'originalContent': '事项：2024年2月CPI同比0.7%，PPI同比为-2.7%。平安观点：CPI同比由跌转涨。2024年2月CPI同比增0.7%，较上月提升1.5个百分点；剔除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增1.2%，较上月提升0.8个百分点。春节错位对CPI增速的扰动较大。去年春节时间偏早，2月CPI环比回落0.5%；而今年春节时间偏晚，2月CPI环比增长1%，基本符合春节前后的变化规律，且高于受疫情影响较大的2022年同期。从结构上看，1）春节旅游出行火热，是CPI的最强支撑。2月旅游价格同比增23.1%，达2002年1月有统计以来的最高值。我们估算，旅游支出在居民消费中的占比约为4%，旅游价格对2月CPI同比增速的拉动或接近0.9个百分点。2）能源价格反弹，食品价格向季节性均值靠拢，也有助于CPI增速的稳定。2月交通工具用燃料环比上行1.9%，对CPI由拖累转为支撑。CPI食品项环比上涨3.3%，接近历史同期均值。往后看，CPI增速恢复的可持续性有待观察。1）春节假期结束后，旅游出行迅速降温，机票价格的下跌速度也快于以往。若3月份旅游价格环比回落10%（与18-19年同期相当），旅游价格的同比增速将回落至11.2%，预计旅游对3月CPI同比增速的拉动较2月减弱0.5个百分点。2）房地产行业持续磨底，对居住服务及耐用品价格的拖累还在延续。2月通信工具、衣着价格环比分别下跌1.1%、下跌0.2%，家用器具价格持平于上月。CPI居住分项已连续6个月环比持平，同比增速也趋向回落。3）食品价格表现一定程度上受部分地区雨雪天气影响，此前连续7个月的环比表现弱于季节性。PPI同比跌幅扩大，较上月回落0.2个百分点至-2.7%；环比持平于-0.2%。PPI环比表现的支撑因素在于，国际市场原油价格偏强，对化工产业链价格形成推升。我们测算，石化产业链五个行业对PPI环比增速拉动较上月提升0.17个百分点。PPI环比表现的拖累因素在于，内需定价的原材料、电力煤炭、装备制造价格表现偏弱。一是，建筑施工需求季节性走弱，春节假期钢材、水泥等行业需求减少，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、水泥制造价格回落。二是，装备制造主要行业价格均下跌（包括锂离子电池制造、新能源车整车制造、通用设备制造、铁路船舶运输设备制造、计算机通信电子设备制造、金属制品业），或受部分行业产能过剩拖累。三是，北方气温偏高，采暖用煤需求减少，加之非电用煤需求季节性偏弱，煤炭开采和洗选业、水电燃气相关的三个子行业价格均回落。', 'content': \"Matters: In February 2024, the CPI was 0.7% year-on-year, and the PPI was -2.7% year-on-year. Ping An's perspective: CPI turned from falling to rising year-on-year. In February 2024, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the core CPI excluding food and energy increased by 1.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The misalignment of the Spring Festival has a greater impact on CPI growth. Last year's Spring Festival was too early, and the CPI fell by 0.5% month-on-month in February. However, this year's Spring Festival was too late, and the CPI in February increased by 1% month-on-month, which is basically in line with the change pattern before and after the Spring Festival, and is higher than the same period in 2022, which was greatly affected by the epidemic. From a structural point of view, 1) Spring Festival travel is booming, which is the strongest support for CPI. Tourism prices in February increased by 23.1% year-on-year, reaching the highest value since statistics were collected in January 2002. We estimate that tourism expenditure accounts for about 4% of household consumption, and tourism prices may have contributed nearly 0.9 percentage points to the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in February. 2) A rebound in energy prices and food prices moving closer to the seasonal average will also help stabilize CPI growth. In February, transportation fuel consumption increased by 1.9% month-on-month, which turned from a drag to a support for CPI. CPI food items increased by 3.3% month-on-month, close to the historical average for the same period. Looking forward, the sustainability of the CPI growth recovery remains to be seen. 1) After the Spring Festival holiday, tourism has cooled down rapidly, and air ticket prices have fallen faster than before. If tourism prices fall by 10% month-on-month in March (similar to the same period in 2018-19), the year-on-year growth rate of tourism prices will fall back to 11.2%. It is expected that tourism’s contribution to the year-on-year CPI growth rate in March will be 0.5 percentage points weaker than in February. 2) The real estate industry continues to bottom out, which continues to drag down the prices of residential services and durable goods. In February, the prices of communication tools and clothing fell by 1.1% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively, while the prices of household appliances remained unchanged from the previous month. The residential component of CPI has remained unchanged month-on-month for six consecutive months, and the year-on-year growth rate has also tended to decline. 3) Food price performance is affected to a certain extent by rain and snow in some areas. The previous seven consecutive months of month-on-month performance were weaker than seasonal. The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded, falling 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to -2.7%; month-on-month, it remained unchanged at -0.2%. The supporting factor for the month-on-month performance of PPI is that the price of crude oil in the international market is relatively strong, which has pushed up the price of the chemical industry chain. We estimate that the five industries in the petrochemical industry chain contributed to the month-on-month growth of PPI by 0.17 percentage points compared with the previous month. The drag factor on the month-on-month performance of PPI is that the price performance of raw materials, electricity, coal, and equipment manufacturing priced by domestic demand is weak. First, the demand for construction has weakened seasonally. During the Spring Festival holiday, demand for steel, cement and other industries has decreased, and prices for ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries and cement manufacturing have fallen. Second, prices in major equipment manufacturing industries have fallen (including lithium-ion battery manufacturing, new energy vehicle manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing, railway and shipping equipment manufacturing, computer communications electronic equipment manufacturing, and the metal products industry), or the production capacity of some industries has declined. Excess drag. Third, the temperature in the north is high, the demand for heating coal is reduced, and the demand for non-electricity coal is seasonally weak. Prices in the three sub-sectors related to coal mining and washing, and water, electricity and gas have all fallen.\", 'authorid': UUID('149306d1-3d93-5b17-941a-f5aa3a00dc04'), 'sentimentScore': 0.624542698264122, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'PBM0D8L6FLEIUD20VGFMEFVLIVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:50:52 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'PBM0D8L6FLEIUD20VGFMEFVLIVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('28a88690-4870-5ee5-a056-0d33a541b8ef'), 'title': 'The macro chapter of the interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Promote stability through advancement and strive for progress', 'author': 'Tan Zhuo, Niu Mengqi, Wang Xintian, Zhang Bingying, Liu Yang, Wang Tiancheng', 'orgName': '招商银行股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BG8lMd+4LXaio8jmNXkPU7k=', 'researcher': '谭卓,牛梦琦,王欣恬,张冰莹,刘阳,王天程', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000281853', '11000353933', '11000369840', '11000430037', '11000392636', '11000412642'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BG8lMd+4LXaio8jmNXkPU7k=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209317_1.pdf?1710168745000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209317_1.pdf?1710168745000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The macro chapter of the interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Promote stability through advancement and strive for progress', 'originalAuthor': '谭卓,牛梦琦,王欣恬,张冰莹,刘阳,王天程', 'originalContent': '3月5日，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告（以下简称《报告》），回顾2023年工作，研判当前形势，提出2024年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向，并部署重点工作任务。一、形势判断：战略机遇和风险挑战并存《报告》首先回顾了2023年工作成绩，认为过去一年多重困难挑战交织叠加，我国经济波浪式发展、曲折式前进，全年经济运行呈现前低中高后稳态势，成绩来之不易。《报告》客观分析了去年外部和内部、短期和长期、内生和外生的困难挑战，指出“外需下滑和内需不足碰头，周期性和结构性问题并存”，一些地方的房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等风险隐患凸显，部分地区遭受严重自然灾害。因此，“政策抉择和工作推进面临的两难多难问题明显增加”。尽管如此，去年我国仍然实现了全年预期发展目标，这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导的结果，是全国上下团结奋斗的结果。在此基础上，《报告》对今年形势作出研判，基调与去年末中央经济工作会议一致。从外部看，“复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升”，主要是世界经济增长动能不足，地区热点问题频发。从内部看，“持续回升向好的基础还不稳固”，存在“有效需求不足，部分行业产能过剩，社会预期偏弱，风险隐患仍然较多，国内大循环存在堵点，国际循环存在干扰”六大挑战。其中最后一项为新增表述，或与近期外贸外资领域下行压力有关。《报告》强调了上年关注的中小企业经营、就业、公共服务、基层财力、科技创新、生态环境、安全生产以及工作作风等方面的问题，新增“重点领域改革仍有不少硬骨头要啃”的表述，并对此在今年工作任务第四项进行了“坚定不移深化改革”专题部署。在直面问题和挑战的同时，《报告》强调今年我国发展“有利条件强于不利因素”，指出我国在制度、大市场、产业体系和人才方面的优势，发展内生动力在不断集聚，“必须增强信心和底气”。二、发展目标：积极进取、奋发有为《报告》指出，今年各项预期目标的设定“兼顾了需要和可能”。各目标的设定总体积极、内生一致，隐含了中国经济进一步复苏向好的基准情景，体现了“以进促稳”的政策取向。《报告》强调，“实现今年预期目标并非易事，需要政策聚焦发力、工作加倍努力、各方面齐心协力”。1.增长目标：积极进取，以进促稳今年我国经济增长目标为“5%左右”，与去年一致，符合市场预期。《报告》指出，这一目标的设定既考虑了短期促进就业增收、防范化解风险，以及��现中长期发展目标的需要，也考虑了经济增长的潜在可能。一方面，合理的经济增速是经济高质量发展的内在要求。《报告》起草组负责人、国务院研究室主任黄守宏3月5日在国新办发布会上表示，“从现在到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化的目标，大体要保持5%左右的经济增速”。短期看，积极的增长目标可以有效提振信心，有利于在“稳增长”的同时防范化解风险。另一方面，今年实现经济增长目标的难度较上年进一步上升。去年我国经济增长5.2%存在低基数支撑，两年复合增速为4.1%，距离5%仍有约1个百分点的差距。因此，今年基数效应消退后，要实现5%左右的增长，有赖于各项政策积极进取、协同发力。2.就业目标：强化新增就业《报告》提出今年“城镇新增就业1,200万人以上，城镇调查失业率5.5%左右”的目标，其中新增就业目标表述由去年的“左右”强化为“以上”，失业率目标与惯例一致。进取的新增就业目标既有需要，也有压力。去年，我国实现城镇新增就业1,244万，相较1,200万目标富余度相对有限。今年就业供给或进一步上升，高校毕业生预计超过1,170万人，较去年的1,158万进一步上升12万，再创历史新高。吸纳增量供给，需要政策积极发力，通过有效推动经济高质量发展，缓解就业总量压力和结构性矛盾。《报告》在工作任务部分对稳就业促增收进行了专门部署，指出“就业是最基本的民生”。3.通胀目标：持平往年居民消费价格涨幅目标继续保持“3%左右”，与往年一致。去年居民消费价格上涨0.2%，显著低于目标涨幅。今年我国通胀水平有望温和复苏。《报告》提出的赤字率和赤字规模目标隐含的通胀预期也将较去年显著提高。今年赤字率隐含的名义GDP增速预期中枢约7.3%，下限为5.9%（以赤字率3.04%计）。结合5%的实际GDP增速，《报告》对GDP平减指数同比增速的预期中枢为2.3%，下限为0.9%，相较去年的-0.6%，预期回升幅度超过1.5pct。当前市场对CPI通胀预期在1-2%之间。CPI通胀要实现更为陡峭的修复，需要综合施策有效增强经济增长内生动能，提振信心、改善需求、优化供给。4.其他目标：量化能耗目标回归其他主要目标方面，与去年相比，“居民收入增长与经济增长基本同步”“粮食产量保持在1.3万亿斤以上”的目标保持一致；“国际收支基本平衡”目标保留，“进出口促稳提质”的表述被隐去。值得注意的是，在绿色发展上，《报告》提出单位GDP能耗“降低2.5%左右”，相较去年“继续下降”的要求强化。此前，2018-2019年与2021年，该目标为降低3%“以上”或“左右”，但在过去两年并未设立量化目标。今年量化目标再度回归，尽管降幅要求较2021年边际收窄，但考虑到降低能耗的难度边际递增，当前的要求可能更高。', 'content': '3月5日，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告（以下简称《报告》），回顾2023年工作，研判当前形势，提出2024年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向，并部署重点工作任务。一、形势判断：战略机遇和风险挑战并存《报告》首先回顾了2023年工作成绩，认为过去一年多重困难挑战交织叠加，我国经济波浪式发展、曲折式前进，全年经济运行呈现前低中高后稳态势，成绩来之不易。《报告》客观分析了去年外部和内部、短期和长期、内生和外生的困难挑战，指出“外需下滑和内需不足碰头，周期性和结构性问题并存”，一些地方的房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等风险隐患凸显，部分地区遭受严重自然灾害。因此，“政策抉择和工作推进面临的两难多难问题明显增加”。尽管如此，去年我国仍然实现了全年预期发展目标，这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导的结果，是全国上下团结奋斗的结果。在此基础上，《报告》对今年形势作出研判，基调与去年末中央经济工作会议一致。从外部看，“复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升”，主要是世界经济增长动能不足，地区热点问题频发。从内部看，“持续回升向好的基础还不稳固”，存在“有效需求不足，部分行业产能过剩，社会预期偏弱，风险隐患仍然较多，国内大循环存在堵点，国际循环存在干扰”六大挑战。其中最后一项为新增表述，或与近期外贸外资领域下行压力有关。《报告》强调了上年关注的中小企业经营、就业、公共服务、基层财力、科技创新、生态环境、安全生产以及工作作风等方面的问题，新增“重点领域改革仍有不少硬骨头要啃”的表述，并对此在今年工作任务第四项进行了“坚定不移深化改革”专题部署。在直面问题和挑战的同时，《报告》强调今年我国发展“有利条件强于不利因素”，指出我国在制度、大市场、产业体系和人才方面的优势，发展内生动力在不断集聚，“必须增强信心和底气”。二、发展目标：积极进取、奋发有为《报告》指出，今年各项预期目标的设定“兼顾了需要和可能”。各目标的设定总体积极、内生一致，隐含了中国经济进一步复苏向好的基准情景，体现了“以进促稳”的政策取向。《报告》强调，“实现今年预期目标并非易事，需要政策聚焦发力、工作加倍努力、各方面齐心协力”。1.增长目标：积极进取，以进促稳今年我国经济增长目标为“5%左右”，与去年一致，符合市场预期。《报告》指出，这一目标的设定既考虑了短期促进就业增收、防范化解风险，以及实现中长期发展目标的需要，也考虑了经济增长的潜在可能。一方面，合理的经济增速是经济高质量发展的内在要求。《报告》起草组负责人、国务院研究室主任黄守宏3月5日在国新办发布会上表示，“从现在到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化的目标，大体要保持5%左右的经济增速”。短期看，积极的增长目标可以有效提振信心，有利于在“稳增长”的同时防范化解风险。另一方面，今年实现经济增长目标的难度较上年进一步上升。去年我国经济增长5.2%存在低基数支撑，两年复合增速为4.1%，距离5%仍有约1个百分点的差距。因此，今年基数效应消退后，要实现5%左右的增长，有赖于各项政策积极进取、协同发力。2.就业目标：强化新增就业《报告》提出今年“城镇新增就业1,200万人以上，城镇调查失业率5.5%左右”的目标，其中新增就业目标表述由去年的“左右”强化为“以上”，失业率目标与惯例一致。进取的新增就业目标既有需要，也有压力。去年，我国实现城镇新增就业1,244万，相较1,200万目标富余度相对有限。今年就业供给或进一步上升，高校毕业生预计超过1,170万人，较去年的1,158万进一步上升12万，再创历史新高。吸纳增量供给，需要政策积极发力，通过有效推动经济高质量发展，缓解就业总量压力和结构性矛盾。《报告》在工作任务部分对稳就业促增收进行了专门部署，指出“就业是最基本的民生”。3.通胀目标：持平往年居民消费价格涨幅目标继续保持“3%左右”，与往年一致。去年居民消费价格上涨0.2%，显著低于目标涨幅。今年我国通胀水平有望温和复苏。《报告》提出的赤字率和赤字规模目标隐含的通胀预期也将较去年显著提高。今年赤字率隐含的名义GDP增速预期中枢约7.3%，下限为5.9%（以赤字率3.04%计）。结合5%的实际GDP增速，《报告》对GDP平减指数同比增速的预期中枢为2.3%，下限为0.9%，相较去年的-0.6%，预期回升幅度超过1.5pct。当前市场对CPI通胀预期在1-2%之间。CPI通胀要实现更为陡峭的修复，需要综合施策有效增强经济增长内生动能，提振信心、改善需求、优化供给。4.其他目标：量化能耗目标回归其他主要目标方面，与去年相比，“居民收入增长与经济增长基本同步”“粮食产量保持在1.3万亿斤以上”的目标保持一致；“国际收支基本平衡”目标保留，“进出口促稳提质”的表述被隐去。值得注意的是，在绿色发展上，《报告》提出单位GDP能耗“降低2.5%左右”，相较去年“继续下降”的要求强化。此前，2018-2019年与2021年，该目标为降低3%“以上”或“左右”，但在过去两年并未设立量化目标。今年量化目标再度回归，尽管降幅要求较2021年边际收窄，但考虑到降低能耗的难度边际递增，当前的要求可能更高。', 'authorid': UUID('c68034f6-188b-5b40-8d5b-57b60b914f50'), 'sentimentScore': 0.1050495021045208, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'LMDN5F3UARM9HPHQ0HK5VT5JRRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:50:56 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'LMDN5F3UARM9HPHQ0HK5VT5JRRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('137f7773-b3eb-50f7-b700-995669d4305e'), 'title': 'Overseas market tracking: soft demand, inflation easing', 'author': 'Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli', 'orgName': '上海证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000155', 'orgSName': '上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BGaA/EB3BowJFuB1b7QonZ0=', 'researcher': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172617', '11000235839'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BGaA/EB3BowJFuB1b7QonZ0=', 'site': 'Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '上海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209302_1.pdf?1710152794000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209302_1.pdf?1710152794000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas market tracking: soft demand, inflation easing', 'originalAuthor': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'originalContent': '投资摘要海外市场跟踪——（2.26-3.1）海外股市涨跌均有，日本股市再创新高；海外国债收益率涨跌互现；美元指数有所回落，美元兑除日元外均有所升值；CRB指数有所回升，主要商品除铜、小麦外均有所上涨。发达国家制造业景气度回落2月主要发达国家制造业景气度以回落为主。美国2月PMI下降1.3个百分点至47.8%；欧盟PMI下降0.1个百分点至46.5%，其中法国回升4个百分点至47.1%，德国下降3个百分点至42.5%；英国2月PMI为47.5%，上涨0.2个百分点；日本下降0.8个百分点至47.2%。整体来看，海外需求仍然较疲软，欧盟中主要国家表现分化。美国日本通胀持续回落美国1月PCE同比增长2.4%，核心PCE同比增长2.85%，较上月均有所回落，美国通胀进一步缓解。美联储曾强调，政策利率可能处于本轮紧缩周期的峰值，但在对通胀可持续向2%迈进的信心增强之前，降低联邦基金利率的目标区间是不合适的。我们认为，当前利率已在顶部，通胀回落的延续或将加快降息的到来。日本1月CPI同比增长2.2%，较上月下降0.4个百分点；环比增长0.1%，由负转正。日本通胀进一步回落，创下近两年新低。风险提示俄乌冲突、中东冲突等地缘政治事件恶化，国际金融形势改变；中国通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。', 'content': \"Investment summary overseas market tracking - (2.26-3.1) Overseas stock markets rose and fell, and the Japanese stock market hit a new high; overseas debt yields were mixed; the U.S. dollar index fell back, and the U.S. dollar appreciated against all but the Japanese yen ; The CRB index has rebounded, and all major commodities except copper and wheat have increased. The manufacturing boom in developed countries fell back. The manufacturing boom in major developed countries mainly fell back in February. The US PMI fell by 1.3 percentage points to 47.8% in February; the EU PMI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 46.5%, with France rising by 4 percentage points to 47.1% and Germany falling by 3 percentage points to 42.5%; the UK PMI in February was 47.5%, rising. 0.2 percentage points; Japan dropped 0.8 percentage points to 47.2%. Overall, overseas demand is still weak, and the performance of major countries in the EU is divided. Inflation in the U.S. and Japan continues to fall. The U.S. PCE increased by 2.4% year-on-year in January, and the core PCE increased by 2.85% year-on-year. Both declined from the previous month, and U.S. inflation further eased. The Fed has emphasized that policy rates may be at the peak of this tightening cycle, but that lowering the target range for the federal funds rate would not be appropriate until confidence in inflation's sustainable move toward 2% increases. We believe that the current interest rate is at the top, and the continuation of the fall in inflation may accelerate the arrival of interest rate cuts. Japan's CPI increased by 2.2% year-on-year in January, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; it increased by 0.1% month-on-month, turning from negative to positive. Japan's inflation fell further, hitting a new low in the past two years. Risks suggest that geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East conflict have worsened, and the international financial situation has changed; China's inflation has risen beyond expectations, and China's monetary policy has changed beyond expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('23836b0d-75e0-5a50-a109-862fde53e3bf'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8738689757883549, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '2O2GGCH1EBEF1FO1KHUIIK4T3RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:50:58 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '2O2GGCH1EBEF1FO1KHUIIK4T3RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "https://reportapi.eastmoney.com/report/jg?cb=datatable8544623&pageSize=100&beginTime=2023-12-16&endTime=2024-03-15&pageNo=2&qType=3\n", - "{'id': UUID('eb61970d-9481-5e80-8c82-a7c9e97440da'), 'title': 'Comments on trade data from January to February: Why did import and export have a better-than-expected “good start”?', 'author': 'Xu Chao, Wan Qi', 'orgName': '太平洋证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80050806', 'orgSName': '太平洋', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BGgvXyhTyOmtEoRIIAy0Zy0=', 'researcher': '徐超,万琦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249881', '11000454339'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BGgvXyhTyOmtEoRIIAy0Zy0=', 'site': 'Pacific Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '太平洋', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209303_1.pdf?1710163334000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209303_1.pdf?1710163334000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on trade data from January to February: Why did import and export have a better-than-expected “good start”?', 'originalAuthor': '徐超,万琦', 'originalContent': '中国1-2月出口（以美元计价，下同）同比增长7.1%，市场预期增长2.7%，去年12月增长2.3%。中国1-2月进口同比增长3.5%，市场预期增长0.3%，去年12月增长0.2%。中国1-2月贸易顺差1251.6亿美元，市场预期708.5亿美元，去年12月为753.4亿美元。1-2月出口（以美元计价，下同）同比增长7.1%，相比去年12月上行4.8个百分点。考虑到去年春节较早，其对生产的影响在去年1-2月体现得比今年更为明显，这也意味着同期基数偏低，所以市场对今年年初两个月出口同比增速的上行已有一定预期，但数据反弹幅度明显超出了市场估计。究其原因，在基数之外，1-2月出口本身也有积极贡献，其绝对值处于历史同期的次高水平（仅次于2022年），其中优势产业（机电产品）的出口继续形成支撑，对新兴市场的出口则维持较强态势。超预期的点或在于对北美出口的回升及劳动密集型产品、地产后周期产品的出口反弹。', 'content': \"China's exports (denominated in US dollars, the same below) increased by 7.1% year-on-year from January to February, and the market expected an increase of 2.7%. It increased by 2.3% in December last year. China's imports from January to February increased by 3.5% year-on-year, market expectations increased by 0.3%, and increased by 0.2% in December last year. China's trade surplus from January to February was US$125.16 billion, compared with market expectations of US$70.85 billion, and US$75.34 billion in December last year. From January to February, exports (denominated in US dollars, the same below) increased by 7.1% year-on-year, an increase of 4.8 percentage points compared with December last year. Considering that the Spring Festival was earlier last year, its impact on production was more obvious in January and February last year than this year. This also means that the base number in the same period was low. Therefore, the market has been optimistic about the upward year-on-year growth rate of exports in the first two months of this year. There were certain expectations, but the data rebound significantly exceeded market estimates. The reason is that in addition to the base number, exports themselves also made a positive contribution from January to February, with their absolute value at the second highest level in the same period in history (second only to 2022). Among them, exports of advantageous industries (mechanical and electrical products) continue to provide support. Exports to emerging markets maintained a strong momentum. What exceeds expectations may be the rebound in exports to North America and the rebound in exports of labor-intensive products and real estate post-cyclical products.\", 'authorid': UUID('449742b5-b0f3-5c56-92a0-5cc455ba4318'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9265800211578608, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TDVKSHBHET79F7U2TO6C2ICEB3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:51:02 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TDVKSHBHET79F7U2TO6C2ICEB3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2ded9027-f29d-55f5-8a40-f18288e9b450'), 'title': 'Comprehensive review and outlook for the week: Government work report clarifies development goals', 'author': 'Yan Xiang, Xu Ruchun', 'orgName': '华福证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000065', 'orgSName': '华福证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BKSPPu6kp6YZ62UmG7Ndsnc=', 'researcher': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000223033', '11000339132'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BKSPPu6kp6YZ62UmG7Ndsnc=', 'site': 'Huafu Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华福证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209286_1.pdf?1710168745000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209286_1.pdf?1710168745000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comprehensive review and outlook for the week: Government work report clarifies development goals', 'originalAuthor': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'originalContent': '投资要点：核心观点：3月5日，李强总理在十四届全国人大二次会议上做了《政府工作报告》（以下简称《报告》），提出了对2024年经济社会发展预期目标以及重点工作任务。《报告》提出，2024年全年国内生产总值目标增长5%左右，与2023年保持一致。在这个基础上，城镇新增就业1200万人以上，城镇调查失业率5.5%左右；居民消费价格涨幅3%左右；居民收入增长与经济增长基本同步；国际收支保持基本平衡；粮食产量保持在1.3万亿斤以上；单位国内生产总值能耗降低2.5%左右，生态环境质量持续改善。宏观政策方面，《报告》提出积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效，赤字率方面，2024年的赤字率拟按3%安排，预算赤字规模4.06万亿元。2024年将安排新增地方政府专项债发行3.9万亿人民币，较2023年增加1000亿元，并提出了万亿超长期特别国债。稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效；保持流动性合理充裕，社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配。产业政策方面，大力推进现代化产业体系建设、加快发展新质生产力是2024年首要工作目标。此外，3月7日，海关总署公布了今年1-2月进出口数据。数据显示，按美元计价，2024年前2个月，我国进出口总额9308.6亿美元，同比增长5.5%；其中，出口5280.1亿美元，同比增长7.1%，进口4028.5亿美元，增长3.5%；贸易顺差1251.6亿美元，同比扩大20.5%。分国别来看，2024年前2个月，我国对东盟、美国出口增速实现增长，对欧盟出口增速大幅回暖，对日本出口降幅持续扩大。从出口产品类别来看，2024年前2个月，机电产品出口大幅增加。总体来看，今年《政府工作报告》内容更加关注集中力量推动高质量发展，特别是强调现代化产业体系的建设与新质生产力的发展。我们认为，未来宏观政策将继续强化逆周期和跨周期调节，积极的财政政策会适度加力、提质增效，中央财政适度发力，优化中央和地方政府债务结构；稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效，总体上偏宽松，年内存在进一步降准降息的可能性，结构上将更加注重政策的实施效果。对资本市场而言，在当前利率处于低位、上市公司盈利处于底部位置的背景下，我们认为分母逻辑将继续演绎，权益市场继续上行的可能性较大，方向上重点关注与科技创新相关的品种，以及受益于利率下行的红利品种。风险提示：地缘政治风险超预期、经济数据不及预期、海外市场大幅波动等。', 'content': 'Investment points: Core view: On March 5, Premier Li Qiang delivered the \"Government Work Report\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Report\") at the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress, proposing the expected goals and key points for economic and social development in 2024. work tasks. The \"Report\" proposes that the GDP target for 2024 will grow by about 5%, consistent with 2023. On this basis, more than 12 million new urban jobs will be created, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate will be around 5.5%; consumer prices will increase by around 3%; residents’ income growth will basically keep pace with economic growth; the international balance of payments will remain basically balanced; and grain output will remain at More than 1.3 trillion kilograms; energy consumption per unit of GDP is reduced by about 2.5%, and the quality of the ecological environment continues to improve. In terms of macro policies, the \"Report\" proposes that proactive fiscal policies should be appropriately intensified and improve quality and efficiency. In terms of deficit ratio, the deficit ratio in 2024 is planned to be 3%, with a budget deficit of 4.06 trillion yuan. In 2024, an additional 3.9 trillion yuan of local government special bonds will be issued, an increase of 100 billion yuan compared with 2023, and a trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be proposed. A prudent monetary policy must be flexible, appropriate, precise and effective; liquidity must be maintained at a reasonable and sufficient level, and the scale of social financing and money supply must match the expected goals of economic growth and price levels. In terms of industrial policy, vigorously promoting the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerating the development of new productive forces are the primary work goals in 2024. In addition, on March 7, the General Administration of Customs released import and export data from January to February this year. Data show that in US dollars, in the first two months of 2024, my country\\'s total import and export volume was US$930.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%; of which, exports were US$528.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and imports were US$402.85 billion, an increase of 3.5%; the trade surplus US$125.16 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. Looking at each country, in the first two months of 2024, my country\\'s export growth to ASEAN and the United States increased, the growth rate of exports to the EU picked up significantly, and the decline in exports to Japan continued to expand. From the perspective of export product categories, in the first two months of 2024, exports of mechanical and electrical products increased significantly. Overall, this year\\'s \"Government Work Report\" focuses more on concentrating efforts to promote high-quality development, especially emphasizing the construction of a modern industrial system and the development of new productive forces. We believe that in the future, macro policies will continue to strengthen counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustments, proactive fiscal policies will be appropriately intensified, improve quality and efficiency, central finance will make appropriate efforts to optimize the debt structure of central and local governments; prudent monetary policies must be flexible It is moderate, precise and effective, and generally loose. There is the possibility of further RRR and interest rate cuts during the year, and the structure will pay more attention to the implementation effect of the policy. For the capital market, under the current background of low interest rates and bottom-line profits of listed companies, we believe that the denominator logic will continue to be interpreted, and the equity market is more likely to continue to rise. The direction will focus on varieties related to technological innovation. , as well as dividend varieties that benefit from falling interest rates. Risk warning: Geopolitical risks exceed expectations, economic data falls short of expectations, overseas markets fluctuate significantly, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('91584e59-c8cd-5c63-a616-39b00d7419c0'), 'sentimentScore': 0.5313109755516052, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'NO8KVIV88I223U433AR5H6OG8RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:51:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'NO8KVIV88I223U433AR5H6OG8RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1d9c83a3-d5f2-517f-9346-d81a128a5bca'), 'title': 'Price Comments in February 2024: Micro-level clues for CPI exceeding expectations', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Ma Jieying', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BDVeri0KAxZIsQF9kYnXpV0=', 'researcher': '赵伟,马洁莹', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000342031'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BDVeri0KAxZIsQF9kYnXpV0=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209277_1.pdf?1710147653000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209277_1.pdf?1710147653000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Price Comments in February 2024: Micro-level clues for CPI exceeding expectations', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,马洁莹', 'originalContent': 'CPI同比超预期上涨，主因春节期间新涨价因素拉动。2月，CPI同比上涨0.7%、高于预期的0.4%，其中，翘尾因素拖累0.6个百分点、较上月收窄0.5个百分点，新涨价因素贡献1.3个百分点。结构中，食品环比涨幅扩大2.9个百分点、与近10年春节环比均值大体相当；非食品环比涨幅扩大0.3个百分点至0.5%、高于季节性水平。拆分来看，食品价格边际回升、与部分商品供给压力减弱等有关，非食品回升主因服务价格修复等。一方面，春节需求增加、叠加寒潮影响供给等，鲜菜、猪肉、水产品等合计影响CPI上涨0.58个百分点；另一方面，节假日期间服务需求回升带动CPI旅游等环比创历史新高至13.1%、叠加原油链拖累减弱等，支撑非食品价格延续修复。往后来看，寒潮低温对蔬果等价格影响更多为短期脉冲作用、加之春节效应走弱等，3月CPI同比或有所回落、0.5%左右；二、三季度表现相对温和、0.5%附近震荡；四季度后，CPI同比增速或回升至阶段性高点、1.5%左右（详情参见《极端天气，如何影响复苏节奏？》、《温和通胀的微观基础？》）。2024年PPI同比增速延续修复、斜率或相对平缓，年中前后转正，全年中枢在0.2%左右。原材料等生产资料拖累最大阶段或已过去，伴随需求边际修复或支撑部分商品涨价、但部分行业供给压力或仍存，涨价弹性还待观察。中性情景下，PPI同比高点或在三季度、1.5%左右，四季度边际有所回落。常规跟踪：CPI同比转正，PPI降幅扩大、与生产资料拖累等有关CPI同比增速转正。2月，CPI同比增速由负转正至0.7%、上月为-0.8%；核心CPI同比涨幅扩大0.8个百分点至1.2%。分项环比中，食品环比涨幅扩大至3.3%，其中，鲜菜、猪肉和水产分别为12.7%、7.2%和6.2%；非食品环比涨幅扩大至0.5%，其中，原油涨价带动交通通信燃料由负转正至1.6%，服务价格回升支撑文教娱环比创近年同期新高、1.7%。PPI同比降幅扩大、主因生产资料拖累。2月，PPI同比降幅扩大0.2个百分点至2.7%，环比持平于-0.2%。大类环比中，生产资料环比降幅扩大0.1个百分点至-0.3%、主因原材料价格拖累，采掘和加工环比持平于上月；生活资料环比降幅收窄0.1个百分点至-0.1%，主因耐用消费品价格拖累放缓，食品、衣着也有支撑，一般日用品环比回落。分行业来看，受节假日、生产淡季影响，部分中下游制造业价格延续回落。行业环比中，原油链拖累减弱，石油开采、化学纤维环比转正至2.5%和0.2%；受假日停工影响等，钢材、水泥等行业需求减少，黑色冶炼、水泥制造环比分别回落至-0.4%和-1.4%；此外，设备制造、烟草制造等部分中下游价格延续回落。风险提示猪价大幅反弹。', 'content': 'CPI rose more than expected year-on-year, mainly due to new price increases during the Spring Festival. In February, CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 0.4%. Among them, the upward factor dragged down 0.6 percentage points, narrowing 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and new price increase factors contributed 1.3 percentage points. In terms of structure, the month-on-month increase of food increased by 2.9 percentage points, which is roughly the same as the month-on-month average of the Spring Festival in the past 10 years; the month-on-month increase of non-food increased by 0.3 percentage points to 0.5%, which is higher than the seasonal level. Broken down, the marginal rebound in food prices is related to the weakening supply pressure of some commodities, while the rebound in non-food prices is mainly due to the restoration of service prices. On the one hand, the increase in demand during the Spring Festival and the superimposed cold wave affected supply. Fresh vegetables, pork, aquatic products, etc. collectively affected the CPI to rise by 0.58 percentage points. On the other hand, the rebound in demand for services during the holidays drove the CPI on tourism and other aspects to hit a record high of 13.1% month-on-month. The combined drag of the crude oil chain has weakened, supporting the continued recovery of non-food prices. Looking forward, the impact of the cold wave and low temperature on the prices of fruits and vegetables will be more of a short-term pulse effect, coupled with the weakening of the Spring Festival effect, etc. The CPI in March may have declined year-on-year, around 0.5%; the performance in the second and third quarters was relatively mild, fluctuating around 0.5% ; After the fourth quarter, the year-on-year CPI growth rate may rebound to a staged high of around 1.5% (for details, see \"How does extreme weather affect the pace of recovery?\" and \"The micro-foundation of moderate inflation?\"). In 2024, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will continue to recover, and the slope may be relatively flat. It will turn positive around the middle of the year, and the center for the whole year will be around 0.2%. The biggest drag on production materials such as raw materials may have passed. Marginal demand recovery may support price increases for some commodities. However, supply pressure in some industries may still exist, and the elasticity of price increases remains to be seen. Under a neutral scenario, the year-on-year high of PPI may be around 1.5% in the third quarter, with a marginal decline in the fourth quarter. Routine tracking: CPI turned positive year-on-year, PPI decline expanded, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI related to the drag on production materials turned positive. In February, the year-on-year CPI growth rate turned from negative to positive to 0.7%, which was -0.8% last month; the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI expanded by 0.8 percentage points to 1.2%. Among the sub-items, the month-on-month growth of food expanded to 3.3%, of which fresh vegetables, pork and aquatic products were 12.7%, 7.2% and 6.2% respectively; the month-on-month growth of non-food expanded to 0.5%, among which, the increase in crude oil prices drove transportation and communication fuels It turned from negative to positive to 1.6%, and the rebound in service prices supported culture, education and entertainment, which hit a new high of 1.7% month-on-month in the same period in recent years. The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded, mainly due to the drag on production materials. In February, the year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7%, and remained unchanged at -0.2% month-on-month. Among the major categories, the month-on-month decrease of means of production expanded by 0.1 percentage points to -0.3%, mainly due to the drag on raw material prices, while mining and processing remained unchanged from the previous month; the month-on-month decrease of means of living narrowed 0.1 percentage points to -0.1%, mainly due to the price of durable consumer goods. The drag slowed down, food and clothing also found support, and general daily necessities fell month-on-month. From an industry perspective, affected by holidays and off-season production, prices in some midstream and downstream manufacturing industries continued to fall. In the industry chain, the drag of the crude oil chain weakened, and oil mining and chemical fiber turned positive to 2.5% and 0.2% month-on-month. Affected by holiday shutdowns, demand for steel, cement and other industries decreased, and ferrous smelting and cement manufacturing fell back to -0.4% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively. -1.4%; in addition, prices in the midstream and downstream sectors such as equipment manufacturing and tobacco manufacturing continued to fall. Risk reminder: Pig prices rebounded sharply.', 'authorid': UUID('65b4787f-7726-5182-b084-4d4dd0fd8474'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6216102689504623, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8HLGEBPD2ISRMILB8UDF9763NNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:51:06 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8HLGEBPD2ISRMILB8UDF9763NNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e19def58-257d-5f90-9bf4-cb3d3f46ba1f'), 'title': 'The past is like gold: the grand narrative hidden in the price of gold', 'author': 'Yang Weiqiu, Meng Zijun', 'orgName': '国元证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001043', 'orgSName': '国元证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BNYFHjQuPPKgDjHwTRT/Rs4=', 'researcher': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000176619', '11000337831'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BNYFHjQuPPKgDjHwTRT/Rs4=', 'site': 'Guoyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国元证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209282_1.pdf?1710152690000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209282_1.pdf?1710152690000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The past is like gold: the grand narrative hidden in the price of gold', 'originalAuthor': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'originalContent': '报告要点：美债的实际收益率是黄金的一个定价锚，从这个角度看，当前黄金是超涨的：1）黄金本质上是一种零息货币，其持有收益完全来自于资本利得，具有货币和抗通胀的双重属性。2）与此对应，美债实际收益率是持有黄金的机会成本，二者反向相关。3）当前10Y美债实际收益率仍处于历史高位，金价却创出历史新高，二者出现显著背离，如果纯按照10Y美债实际收益率来推算的话，金价应在850美金附近，可见传统的定价锚已严重失灵。既然金价的新高无法用抗通胀属性来进行解释，那就有两个可能性：一是市场提前交易美联储降息，或者说市场的降息预期升温，二是市场的避险情绪升温。有不少观点认为近期金价的上涨，是市场在赌美联储降息，但其实不然：1）大类资产的表现与该猜想不协调，10Y美债收益率和美国资金利率并未出现流畅的下行，为何单单只有黄金在赌联储放水。2）在2022~2023年美联储猛烈加息的时候，10Y美债收益率大幅走高，而黄金在此间由跌转涨，价格甚至超越了联储加息之前的位置。既然联储收水时对金价没有起到决定性作用，为何放水时就能起到关键作用。从排除法来看，金价的上涨是因为避险属性又出现了，这与地缘政治冲突有关，也与美国甚至全球性的或有金融风险有关。为何大家会执着于避险交易：中短期来看，俄乌冲突、美国大选等都加剧了地缘政治风险，长期来看，全球意识形态存在分歧，大国间从合作模式逐步趋于竞争模式，大国间的冲突难以避免，这势必会加大各资产交易的不确定性。支持金价上涨的逻辑更多像是一个遥远且宏大的叙事，市场是否买账很大程度上取决于剩余流动性的多寡，这点也可以从历史走势中略窥一二。比如，2023年国内金价相对于海外金价超额收益显著，对应的时点正是国内的资产荒，而在2020年，国内的流动性寡于海外，国内金价涨幅就不及海外。往后去看，我们认为黄金有概率继续上涨：1）2024年是“全球选举年”，约有50个国家进行议会选举或者领导人选举，其中不乏美国、俄罗斯、欧洲等重要地区。全球大选的不确定性是黄金的基本面。2）美国、欧元区等主要经济体的加息进程已经结束，当前面临的只是降息开启时点早晚的问题，全球流动性只松不紧。3）全球一体化推进的故事，在短期是比较难以讲通的。风险提示：地缘政治冲突加剧，美国银行业危机，宏观政策落地不及预期等', 'content': 'Report highlights: The actual yield rate of U.S. bonds is a pricing anchor for gold. From this perspective, gold is currently overvalued: 1) Gold is essentially a zero-interest currency, and its holding income comes entirely from capital gains. It has dual properties of currency and anti-inflation. 2) Correspondingly, the actual yield on U.S. bonds is the opportunity cost of holding gold, and the two are inversely related. 3) Currently, the actual yield of 10Y U.S. Treasury bonds is still at a historical high, but the price of gold has reached a record high. There is a significant deviation between the two. If calculated purely based on the actual yield of 10Y U.S. bonds, the price of gold should be around US$850, which shows that the traditional The pricing anchor has seriously failed. Since the new high of gold prices cannot be explained by its anti-inflation properties, there are two possibilities: first, the market is trading ahead of the Fed\\'s interest rate cut, or the market\\'s expectations for an interest rate cut are rising, and second, the market\\'s risk aversion sentiment is rising. Many people believe that the recent rise in gold prices is because the market is betting on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but this is not the case: 1) The performance of major asset classes is inconsistent with this conjecture. The 10Y U.S. bond yield and the U.S. funds interest rate did not decline smoothly. Why is gold the only one betting on the Fed releasing water? 2) When the Federal Reserve violently raised interest rates from 2022 to 2023, the yield on 10Y U.S. Treasury bonds rose sharply, while gold turned from falling to rising, and the price even exceeded the position before the Fed raised interest rates. Since the Fed does not play a decisive role in gold prices when it collects water, why does it play a key role when it releases water? Judging from the elimination method, the rise in gold prices is due to the reappearance of safe-haven properties, which is related to geopolitical conflicts and potential financial risks in the United States and even globally. Why do people insist on hedging transactions: In the short and medium term, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the U.S. election have intensified geopolitical risks. In the long term, there are differences in global ideologies, and the model of cooperation among major countries has gradually shifted from a cooperative model to a competitive model. Conflicts are inevitable, which will inevitably increase the uncertainty of asset transactions. The logic supporting the rise in gold prices is more like a distant and grand narrative. Whether the market buys it depends largely on the amount of remaining liquidity, which can also be gleaned from historical trends. For example, in 2023, the domestic gold price will have a significant excess return relative to overseas gold prices, which corresponds to the domestic asset shortage. In 2020, domestic liquidity will be less than overseas, and the domestic gold price will not rise as much as overseas. Looking forward, we believe that gold has a probability of continuing to rise: 1) 2024 is a \"global election year\". About 50 countries will hold parliamentary elections or leadership elections, including many important regions such as the United States, Russia, and Europe. Global election uncertainty is fundamental for gold. 2) The process of raising interest rates in major economies such as the United States and the Eurozone has ended. What we are currently facing is the timing of interest rate cuts. Global liquidity will only loosen or tighten. 3) The story of global integration advancement is relatively difficult to explain in the short term. Risk warning: geopolitical conflicts intensify, U.S. banking crisis, macroeconomic policies falling short of expectations, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('06a6231a-b667-541e-b1fd-3c96f32864dc'), 'sentimentScore': 0.03888627514243126, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TD5M7BVQ701KE5NQMBH4L8KF6NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:51:08 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TD5M7BVQ701KE5NQMBH4L8KF6NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7542806e-9fa5-57e1-b995-63ae34a123de'), 'title': 'Comments on February U.S. non-farm payroll data: Stunning “rebalancing”', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Chen Dafei, Zhao Yu', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BAoD1FhkzmM91op92C15u44=', 'researcher': '赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000385631', '11000436531'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BAoD1FhkzmM91op92C15u44=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209275_1.pdf?1710147722000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209275_1.pdf?1710147722000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February U.S. non-farm payroll data: Stunning “rebalancing”', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇', 'originalContent': '美国2月新增非农就业人数27.5万，高于预期20万，也超过过去12个月均值（23万）。行业结构上，教育及健康服务、休闲和酒店业、政府、交运仓储等行业的就业岗位继续增加，仅制造业和批发贸易的就业岗位有所减少。12月、1月新增非农就业人数合计较修正前大幅减少16.7万。私人部门平均时薪增速较弱，环比大幅放缓至近两年低位。美国2月非农私人部门平均时薪为34.6美元，同比4.3%，低于预期4.4%，前值4.5%，过去12个月的平均值为4.5%；环比0.1%，低于预期0.3%，前值0.6%下修至0.5%，增速创2022年3月以来新低。行业结构上，绝大多数行业边际回落。失业率创近两年新高，劳动参与率保持不变，就业率微降，就业市场处于持续降温进程。美国2月失业率意外上升0.2个百分点至3.9%，创2022年2月以来新高，预期3.7%；劳动参与率连续第三个月为62.5%，预期62.6%；就业率60.1%，前值60.2%。失业率上升的主要原因是许多寻找新工作的人还未找到。劳动力市场逐步降温，通胀放缓迹象不改美国就业市场的增长主要来自非经济原因的兼职。2月份，因非经济原因而从事兼职工作的人数为2230.9万、前值2215.6万、环比增加15.3万，非经济原因兼职占全职的比重升至16.8%，可能是劳动力市场逐步降温的迹象之一。此外，终端消费走弱下，制造业需求走软，制造业PMI就业指数走弱下，制造业新增非农就业为负。职位空缺率的下降或是失业率上行的前提。招聘减少、职位空缺数下降，叠加裁员上升，可能会使得找工作更难、失业率上升。2022年3月以来，贝弗里奇曲线表现为垂直下移态势，往后看，随着劳动力市场持续降温，贝弗里奇曲线垂直下移的同时也开始右偏，后续随着职位空缺率的下行，失业率存在明显上升的可能性。薪资增长放缓、失业率上升，进一步显示通胀放缓的迹象。失业率上升、工资增长放缓，消费者的购买力下降，导致需求减弱，从而抑制了价格上涨的压力。疫情后，随着就业人数拉动逐步减弱，非农私人部门的劳动报酬同比也在走弱，后续随着薪资增速的进一步放缓，劳动报酬同比下行会带动消费者购买力下降。非农数据发布后，美元指数短线下挫、美债收益率先涨后跌，黄金短线下挫后快速反转，期货市场隐含利率微降。由于失业率意外攀升，薪资增长放缓，互换市场充分定价美联储6月份将降息25个基点。截至3月8日，CME FedWatch数据显示，市场定价美联储6月首次降息25BP的概率为57%，上调对美联储2024年降息押注。风险提示地缘政治冲突升级；美联储再次转“鹰”；金融条件加速收缩；', 'content': 'The United States added 275,000 new non-farm jobs in February, which was higher than the expected 200,000 and also exceeded the average of the past 12 months (230,000). In terms of industry structure, employment in education and health services, leisure and hotel industry, government, transportation and warehousing and other industries continued to increase, while only manufacturing and wholesale trade employment decreased. The total number of new non-agricultural employment in December and January dropped significantly by 167,000 compared with before the revision. The growth rate of average hourly wages in the private sector was weak, slowing sharply from the previous month to the lowest level in nearly two years. The average hourly wage of the non-farm private sector in the United States in February was 34.6 US dollars, 4.3% year-on-year, lower than expected 4.4%, the previous value was 4.5%, and the average over the past 12 months was 4.5%; month-on-month 0.1%, lower than expected 0.3%, The previous value was revised down from 0.6% to 0.5%, and the growth rate hit a new low since March 2022. In terms of industry structure, most industries are experiencing marginal decline. The unemployment rate hit a new high in the past two years, the labor force participation rate remained unchanged, the employment rate dropped slightly, and the job market continued to cool. The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9% in February, hitting a new high since February 2022, with expectations of 3.7%; the labor participation rate was 62.5% for the third consecutive month, with expectations of 62.6%; the employment rate was 60.1%, with the previous value of 60.2 %. The main reason for the rise in unemployment is that many people looking for new jobs have not yet found one. The labor market is gradually cooling, and signs of slowing inflation remain unchanged. Growth in the U.S. job market mainly comes from part-time jobs for non-economic reasons. In February, the number of people working part-time for non-economic reasons was 22.309 million, an increase of 153,000 from the previous value of 22.156 million. The proportion of part-time jobs for non-economic reasons rose to 16.8% of full-time jobs, which may be one of the signs of the gradual cooling of the labor market. . In addition, as terminal consumption weakens, manufacturing demand weakens. As the manufacturing PMI employment index weakens, new non-agricultural employment in the manufacturing industry is negative. The decline in the job vacancy rate may be a prerequisite for the unemployment rate to rise. Decreased hiring, fewer job vacancies, and increased layoffs may make it more difficult to find a job and increase the unemployment rate. Since March 2022, the Beveridge Curve has shown a vertical downward trend. Looking forward, as the labor market continues to cool, the Beveridge Curve has shifted vertically downward and also begun to skew to the right. Subsequently, as the job vacancy rate downward, the unemployment rate is likely to rise significantly. Wage growth has slowed and unemployment has risen, further showing signs of slowing inflation. Rising unemployment, slowing wage growth and reduced consumer purchasing power have led to weaker demand, thus curbing upward pressure on prices. After the epidemic, as the number of employed people gradually weakened, labor remuneration in the non-agricultural private sector also weakened year-on-year. As wage growth slowed further, the year-on-year decline in labor remuneration will lead to a decline in consumer purchasing power. After the non-agricultural data was released, the U.S. dollar index fell in the short term, U.S. bond yields first rose and then fell. Gold quickly reversed after its short-term fall, and the implied interest rates in the futures market fell slightly. With unemployment rising unexpectedly and wage growth slowing, swaps markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June. As of March 8, CME FedWatch data showed that the market priced in a 57% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time by 25 BP in June, raising bets on the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate cut in 2024. Risks indicate the escalation of geopolitical conflicts; the Fed turns \"hawk\" again; financial conditions accelerate contraction;', 'authorid': UUID('5561e32c-d3e7-5cc0-a5d5-33281e23a919'), 'sentimentScore': -0.95369762647897, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'CTE41TLQLSE9R6F3V8U08OA2V3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:51:11 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'CTE41TLQLSE9R6F3V8U08OA2V3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('163c4e0f-f77a-5a66-9c54-547683a52f04'), 'title': 'Comments on February inflation data: Spring Festival consumption characteristics implied by inflation', 'author': 'Cheng Qiang', 'orgName': '德邦证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000217', 'orgSName': '德邦证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BO2OaaOgdmiWNytXRqHYbcs=', 'researcher': '程强', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000296632'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BO2OaaOgdmiWNytXRqHYbcs=', 'site': 'Debon Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '德邦证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209255_1.pdf?1710145957000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209255_1.pdf?1710145957000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February inflation data: Spring Festival consumption characteristics implied by inflation', 'originalAuthor': '程强', 'originalContent': '核心观点：春节假期需求增加食品拖累减小，服务涨价带动CPI同比回升，政策显效前CPI或仍低速增长。2月CPI同环比较1月明显改善，春节期间消费需求增加、冰雪旅游爆火，食品项对CPI拖累减小，服务项中旅游出行链价格上涨带动CPI同环比上升。但春节后食品价格的快速回落、地产销售仍偏弱、新能源汽车新一轮价格战等因素均指向CPI上涨动力可能仍然不足。向后看，消费品以旧换新相关政策逐步落实或能够提振消费价格，不排除后续陆续出台推动通胀温和回升的政策“组合拳”的可能性，但政策显效需要时间，短期内CPI或仍将低速增长。PPI方面，上游行业涨价释放了积极信号，在节后基建等项目开工支撑下，后续涨价动力从上游向下传导值得期待。CPI：2月CPI同比上升0.7%，扭转连续四个月同比下降态势；环比上升1.0%，涨幅扩大。2月CPI同比0.7%，前值-0.8%，环比1.0%，前值0.3%。具体来看，食品项同比-0.9%，前值-5.9%；非食品项同比1.1%，前值0.4%；消费品项同比-0.1%，前值-1.7%；服务项同比1.9%，前值0.5%。环比方面，食品项环比3.3%，前值0.4%；非食品项环比0.5%，前值0.2%；消费品项环比1.1%，前值0.2%；服务项环比1.0%，前值0.4%。扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比1.2%，前值0.4%，环比0.5%，前值0.3%。食品：猪肉价格超季节性上涨带动CPI食品项同比降幅收窄，环比涨幅扩大。2月CPI食品项同比-0.9%，前值-5.9%；环比3.3%，前值0.4%。猪肉方面，CPI猪肉项同比由1月的下跌17.3%转为上涨0.2%，环比由1月的下跌0.2%转为上涨7.2%。虽然2月猪肉价格仍低位运行，但由于春节时点错位，2月猪肉价格同环比均由降转升。从供给端来看，截止1月，能繁母猪存栏连续7个月下降，但仍在4000万头以上，猪肉价格后续或仍低位波动。春节期间消费需求增加和区域雨雪天气影响供给，鲜菜、水产品和鲜果价格分别环比上涨12.7%、6.2%和4.3%，食品项合计拉动CPI环比上涨约0.59个百分点，对CPI同比的拖累约0.17个百分点，较1月1.13个百分点的拖累幅度明显改善。通过猪肉、蔬菜、水果价格观察今年春节食品消费特征，以春节前第三周的最后一日价格为基准，今年春节前后两周猪肉价格先升后降，与过去三年同期明显不同；而从蔬果价格来看，共同的特征是年前价格涨幅高于去年，但年后价格回落幅度较前几年更大，呈现出消费需求虽有所回升，但仍较2019-2022年同期相比偏弱，相比之下，猪肉价格走势超越季节性的原因或是猪肉价格持续偏低所致，今年春节前后蔬菜、水果价格处于2019年以来80%-90%分位，而猪肉价格则处于2019年以来30%-50%分位，猪肉价格持续偏低可能导致了居民在年货购置中对猪肉的购买意愿较高，带动了年前猪肉价格的超季节性上涨。非食品：国际油价上涨影响未尽，旅游出行需求旺盛带动服务价格上涨。2月CPI非食品项同比1.1%，前值0.4%，环比0.5%，前值0.2%。（1）能源：国际油价涨幅尚未完全反映在国内油价中，3月CPI燃料项或仍有上涨动力。2月指征能源价格的CPI交通通信分项中的燃料项同比上涨0.8%，上月同比下跌0.1%；环比上涨1.9%，上月环比下跌1.0%。受国际油价上行影响，统计局口径国内汽油价格由上月下降1.0%转为上涨2.0%，拉动CPI环比上涨约0.07个百分点。从高频数据观察，2月92#和95#汽油价格环比分别上涨1.84%和1.81%，而2月布伦特原油价格上涨5.36%，CPI燃料项环比涨幅与92#和95#汽油高频价格涨幅接近，但仍明显低于国际油价涨幅，由于国内油价跟随国际油价调整有一定的滞后，而高频数据显示3月第一周布油价格继续高于2月均值，国内油价这部分“待涨”因素或将对3月CPI燃料项环比有一定支撑。（2）消费品：二手房销售偏弱拖累家具价格，出行需求旺盛推升交通工具租赁价格。2月CPI消费品分项同比-0.1%，前值-1.7%，三大耐用品价格环比走势分化。其中，家用器具分项环比持平，回落至近五年增速区间低位，或受地产销售走弱影响，新房销售到装修有一定时滞，装修时长较为个性化，新房销售难以作为家具购置需求的前瞻指标；而二手房在完成销售后通常将立刻进行家具更新，以二手房销售来观察家具购置需求，2月地产销售偏弱，与2019年以来横向对比，14城二手房销售面积更是仅高于疫情爆发之初的2020年同期，即使与2019年以来春节当月对比，今年2月二手房销售依然处于最低水平，二手房销售热度下降或导致家具购置需求减弱；通信工具分项环比-1.1%，回落至近年增速区间下限以下，通信电子产品需求仍不乐观；交通工具分项环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.1%，春节假期出行需求旺盛推升交通工具租赁价格。（3）服务：春节旅游出行需求旺盛，国内旅游资源不断挖掘成为长假旅游链条价格强支撑。2月CPI服务分项同比1.9%，前值0.5%，环比1.0%，前值0.4%。今年春节受冰雪旅游爆火等影响，旅游出行需求旺盛，文旅部测算，今年春节假期国内旅游出游4.74亿人次，同比增长34.3%，按可比口径较2019年同��增长19.0%；哈尔滨文旅局统计，今年春节期间哈尔滨市累计接待游客1009.3万人次，日均同比增长81.7%。去年以来国内旅游“爆款”层出不穷，随着国内旅游资源的不断挖掘，长假期间国内旅游需求有望持续旺盛，带动旅游价格阶段性上涨。旅游出行需求旺盛也带动了相关产业链上其他商品和服务价格的上涨，2月飞机票、交通工具租赁费、旅游、电影及演出票价格涨幅在12.5%—23.0%之间，合计影响CPI上涨约0.30个百分点。PPI：生产淡季PPI回升乏力，上游先行涨价或将向下传导。2月PPI同比-2.7%，前值-2.5%；环比-0.2%，前值-0.2%。其中，生产资料价格同比-3.4%，前值-3.0%，环比-0.3%，前值-0.2%；生活资料价格同比-0.9%，前值-1.1%，环比-0.1%，前值-0.2%。2月受国际油价上行、市场需求改善影响，采掘工业PPI环比上涨0.2%（前值0.2%）；受春节假日等因素影响，工业生产处于传统淡季，原材料和加工工业PPI环比分别下跌0.4%（前值-0.2%）和0.3%（前值-0.3%）。从产业链来看，PPI环比涨价的主要是上游原材料加工业，环比跌价的主要是中游装备制造业和公用事业，同样受到春节期间工厂停工等影响。今冬北方气温偏高，采暖用煤需求减少，叠加非电用煤需求季节性偏弱，煤炭开采和洗选业价格下降0.7%。受春节假日房地产、基建项目停工等因素影响，钢材、水泥等行业需求减少，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、水泥制造价格分别下降0.4%、1.4%。此外，车企价格战等因素导致锂离子电池制造、新能源车整车制造业价格分别下降0.5%和0.4%。后续价格形势展望：春节需求增加食品拖累减小，服务涨价带动CPI同比回升，政策显效前CPI或仍低速增长。2月CPI同环比较1月明显改善，春节期间消费需求增加、冰雪旅游爆火，食品项对CPI拖累减小，服务项中旅游出行链价格上涨带动CPI同环比上升。但春节后食品价格的快速回落、地产销售仍偏弱、新能源汽车新一轮价格战等因素均指向CPI上涨动力可能仍然不足。向后看，推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案的逐步落实或能够提振消费价格，不排除后续陆续出台推动通胀温和回升的政策“组合拳”的可能性，这或将对摆脱2023年低通胀环境起到不小的作用，但政策显效需要时间，短期内CPI或仍将低速增长；PPI方面，春节时点错位导致的生产节奏错位导致中游行业仍跌价为主，但上游行业涨价释放了积极信号，在节后基建等项目开工支撑下，后续涨价动力从上游向下传导值得期待。风险提示：国际原油价格波动；猪肉等食品价格波动；宏观政策力度及节奏超预期。', 'content': '核心观点：春节假期需求增加食品拖累减小，服务涨价带动CPI同比回升，政策显效前CPI或仍低速增长。2月CPI同环比较1月明显改善，春节期间消费需求增加、冰雪旅游爆火，食品项对CPI拖累减小，服务项中旅游出行链价格上涨带动CPI同环比上升。但春节后食品价格的快速回落、地产销售仍偏弱、新能源汽车新一轮价格战等因素均指向CPI上涨动力可能仍然不足。向后看，消费品以旧换新相关政策逐步落实或能够提振消费价格，不排除后续陆续出台推动通胀温和回升的政策“组合拳”的可能性，但政策显效需要时间，短期内CPI或仍将低速增长。PPI方面，上游行业涨价释放了积极信号，在节后基建等项目开工支撑下，后续涨价动力从上游向下传导值得期待。CPI：2月CPI同比上升0.7%，扭转连续四个月同比下降态势；环比上升1.0%，涨幅扩大。2月CPI同比0.7%，前值-0.8%，环比1.0%，前值0.3%。具体来看，食品项同比-0.9%，前值-5.9%；非食品项同比1.1%，前值0.4%；消费品项同比-0.1%，前值-1.7%；服务项同比1.9%，前值0.5%。环比方面，食品项环比3.3%，前值0.4%；非食品项环比0.5%，前值0.2%；消费品项环比1.1%，前值0.2%；服务项环比1.0%，前值0.4%。扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比1.2%，前值0.4%，环比0.5%，前值0.3%。食品：猪肉价格超季节性上涨带动CPI食品项同比降幅收窄，环比涨幅扩大。2月CPI食品项同比-0.9%，前值-5.9%；环比3.3%，前值0.4%。猪肉方面，CPI猪肉项同比由1月的下跌17.3%转为上涨0.2%，环比由1月的下跌0.2%转为上涨7.2%。虽然2月猪肉价格仍低位运行，但由于春节时点错位，2月猪肉价格同环比均由降转升。从供给端来看，截止1月，能繁母猪存栏连续7个月下降，但仍在4000万头以上，猪肉价格后续或仍低位波动。春节期间消费需求增加和区域雨雪天气影响供给，鲜菜、水产品和鲜果价格分别环比上涨12.7%、6.2%和4.3%，食品项合计拉动CPI环比上涨约0.59个百分点，对CPI���比的拖累约0.17个百分点，较1月1.13个百分点的拖累幅度明显改善。通过猪肉、蔬菜、水果价格观察今年春节食品消费特征，以春节前第三周的最后一日价格为基准，今年春节前后两周猪肉价格先升后降，与过去三年同期明显不同；而从蔬果价格来看，共同的特征是年前价格涨幅高于去年，但年后价格回落幅度较前几年更大，呈现出消费需求虽有所回升，但仍较2019-2022年同期相比偏弱，相比之下，猪肉价格走势超越季节性的原因或是猪肉价格持续偏低所致，今年春节前后蔬菜、水果价格处于2019年以来80%-90%分位，而猪肉价格则处于2019年以来30%-50%分位，猪肉价格持续偏低可能导致了居民在年货购置中对猪肉的购买意愿较高，带动了年前猪肉价格的超季节性上涨。非食品：国际油价上涨影响未尽，旅游出行需求旺盛带动服务价格上涨。2月CPI非食品项同比1.1%，前值0.4%，环比0.5%，前值0.2%。（1）能源：国际油价涨幅尚未完全反映在国内油价中，3月CPI燃料项或仍有上涨动力。2月指征能源价格的CPI交通通信分项中的燃料项同比上涨0.8%，上月同比下跌0.1%；环比上涨1.9%，上月环比下跌1.0%。受国际油价上行影响，统计局口径国内汽油价格由上月下降1.0%转为上涨2.0%，拉动CPI环比上涨约0.07个百分点。从高频数据观察，2月92#和95#汽油价格环比分别上涨1.84%和1.81%，而2月布伦特原油价格上涨5.36%，CPI燃料项环比涨幅与92#和95#汽油高频价格涨幅接近，但仍明显低于国际油价涨幅，由于国内油价跟随国际油价调整有一定的滞后，而高频数据显示3月第一周布油价格继续高于2月均值，国内油价这部分“待涨”因素或将对3月CPI燃料项环比有一定支撑。（2）消费品：二手房销售偏弱拖累家具价格，出行需求旺盛推升交通工具租赁价格。2月CPI消费品分项同比-0.1%，前值-1.7%，三大耐用品价格环比走势分化。其中，家用器具分项环比持平，回落至近五年增速区间低位，或受地产销售走弱影响，新房销售到装修有一定时滞，装修时长较为个性化，新房销售难以作为家具购置需求的前瞻指标；而二手房在完成销售后通常将立刻进行家具更新，以二手房销售来观察家具购置需求，2月地产销售偏弱，与2019年以来横向对比，14城二手房销售面积更是仅高于疫情爆发之初的2020年同期，即使与2019年以来春节当月对比，今年2月二手房销售依然处于最低水平，二手房销售热度下降或导致家具购置需求减弱；通信工具分项环比-1.1%，回落至近年增速区间下限以下，通信电子产品需求仍不乐观；交通工具分项环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.1%，春节假期出行需求旺盛推升交通工具租赁价格。（3）服务：春节旅游出行需求旺盛，国内旅游资源不断挖掘成为长假旅游链条价格强支撑。2月CPI服务分项同比1.9%，前值0.5%，环比1.0%，前值0.4%。今年春节受冰雪旅游爆火等影响，旅游出行需求旺盛，文旅部测算，今年春节假期国内旅游出游4.74亿人次，同比增长34.3%，按可比口径较2019年同期增长19.0%；哈尔滨文旅局统计，今年春节期间哈尔滨市累计接待游客1009.3万人次，日均同比增长81.7%。去年以来国内旅游“爆款”层出不穷，随着国内旅游资源的不断挖掘，长假期间国内旅游需求有望持续旺盛，带动旅游价格阶段性上涨。旅游出行需求旺盛也带动了相关产业链上其他商品和服务价格的上涨，2月飞机票、交通工具租赁费、旅游、电影及演出票价格涨幅在12.5%—23.0%之间，合计影响CPI上涨约0.30个百分点。PPI：生产淡季PPI回升乏力，上游先行涨价或将向下传导。2月PPI同比-2.7%，前值-2.5%；环比-0.2%，前值-0.2%。其中，生产资料价格同比-3.4%，前值-3.0%，环比-0.3%，前值-0.2%；生活资料价格同比-0.9%，前值-1.1%，环比-0.1%，前值-0.2%。2月受国际油价上行、市场需求改善影响，采掘工业PPI环比上涨0.2%（前值0.2%）；受春节假日等因素影响，工业生产处于传统淡季，原材料和加工工业PPI环比分别下跌0.4%（前值-0.2%）和0.3%（前值-0.3%）。从产业链来看，PPI环比涨价的主要是上游原材料加工业，环比跌价的主要是中游装备制造业和公用事业，同样受到春节期间工厂停工等影响。今冬北方气温偏高，采暖用煤需求减少，叠加非电用煤需求季节性偏弱，煤炭开采和洗选业价格下降0.7%。受春节假日房地产、基建项目停工等因素影响，钢材、水泥等行业需求减少，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、水泥制造价格分别下降0.4%、1.4%。此外，车企价格战等因素导致锂离子电池制造、新能源车整车制造业价格分别下降0.5%和0.4%。后续价格形势展望：春节需求增加食品拖累减小，服务涨价带动CPI同比回升，政策显效前CPI或仍低速增长。2月CPI同环比较1月明显改善，春节期间消费需求增加、冰雪旅游爆火，食品项对CPI拖累减小，服务项中旅游出行链价格上涨带动CPI同环比上升。但春节后食品价格的快速回落、地产销售仍偏弱、新能源汽车新一轮价格战等因素均指向CPI上涨动力可能仍然不足。向后看，推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案的逐步落实或能够提振消费价格，不排除后续陆续出台推动通胀温和回升的政策“组合拳”的可能性，这或将对摆脱2023年低通胀环境起到不小的作用，但政策显效需要时间，短期内CPI或仍将低速增长；PPI方面，春节时点错位导致的生产节奏错位导致中游行业仍跌价为主，但上游行业涨价释放了积极信号，在节后基建等项目开工支撑下，后续涨价动力从上游向下传导值得期待。风险提示：国际原油价格波动；猪肉等食品价格波动；宏观政策力度及节奏超预期。', 'authorid': UUID('a2700561-8738-5acf-b44a-342784ba77a6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.008854053914546967, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '51G18UEJKPVGFLCP39U77JSNQJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:51:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '51G18UEJKPVGFLCP39U77JSNQJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8a8c4bf2-4e21-5954-9c4b-302ca24dfe5b'), 'title': 'CPI, PPI comment report: Due to the Spring Festival effect, CPI turned from negative to positive year-on-year', 'author': 'Su Jian', 'orgName': '北京大学国民经济研究中心', 'orgCode': '80922684', 'orgSName': '北大国民经济研究中心', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BH3o1wIGbLF9f78K4LSIUPU=', 'researcher': '苏剑', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000345146'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BH3o1wIGbLF9f78K4LSIUPU=', 'site': 'National Economic Research Center of Peking University', 'originalSite': '北大国民经济研究中心', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209247_1.pdf?1710177986000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209247_1.pdf?1710177986000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'CPI, PPI comment report: Due to the Spring Festival effect, CPI turned from negative to positive year-on-year', 'originalAuthor': '苏剑', 'originalContent': '2024 年 2 月， CPI 同比增长 0.7%，较上月上涨 1.5 个百分点，环比上涨 1.0%，较上月上升 0.7 个百分点。其中去年价格变动的翘尾影响约为-0.6 个百分点， 新涨价影响约为 1.3个百分点。 食品价格环比回升是 CPI 环比继续上升的主要原因，具体表现为：受降水天气不利生鲜农产品储运以及春节消费需求增加影响，食品市场需求激增，食品价格拉动 CPI 环比上涨。受国际油价上行且春节出行及服务需求增加影响，工业消费品价格、 服务价格共同推动非食品价格上涨。 此外，扣除食品和能源价格的核心 CPI 同比增长 1.2 %， 较上月上涨 0.8个百分点，主要是受上年同期春节错月基数较低影响。2024年 2 月， PPI 同比下跌 2.7%，较上月下降 0.2 个百分点， 环比下跌 0.2%， 降幅与上月持平。其中去年价格变动的翘尾影响为-2.3 个百分点； 新涨价影响约为-0.4 个百分点。高基数效应、国际能源价格低位运行叠加工业品生产需求季节性回落仍是 PPI 同比下跌的主要原因，具体表现为：受国际能源价格低位运行影响，上游工业品价格环比仍跌，而中下游工业品需求回落带动生活资料价格环比继续下跌。总体而言，居民消费端中， 春节效应促使食品和服务价格均拉动 CPI 环比上涨，但国内供给相对充足整体 CPI 同比增速依然低位前行。工业生产端中，国际能源价格低迷叠加工业品生产季节性需求回落造成 PPI 同比下跌', 'content': \"In February 2024, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and a month-on-month increase of 1.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the upward impact of last year’s price changes was approximately -0.6 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was approximately 1.3 percentage points. The month-on-month rebound in food prices is the main reason why the CPI continues to rise month-on-month. The specific manifestations are as follows: Affected by the precipitation and unfavorable storage and transportation of fresh agricultural products and the increase in consumer demand during the Spring Festival, food market demand surged, and food prices drove the month-on-month rise in CPI. Affected by the rise in international oil prices and the increase in demand for travel and services during the Spring Festival, the prices of industrial consumer goods and service prices jointly drove up non-food prices. In addition, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the lower base of the Spring Festival in the same period last year. In February 2024, PPI fell 2.7% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month, and 0.2% month-on-month, with the same decline as the previous month. Among them, the upward impact of last year's price changes was -2.3 percentage points; the impact of new price increases was approximately -0.4 percentage points. The high base effect, low international energy prices and seasonal decline in industrial product production demand are still the main reasons for the year-on-year decline in PPI. The specific manifestations are: affected by the low international energy prices, the prices of upstream industrial products still fell month-on-month, while the prices of mid-stream and downstream industries continued to fall. The fall in demand for goods has driven prices of daily necessities to continue to fall month-on-month. Generally speaking, on the consumer side, the Spring Festival effect caused food and service prices to drive up the CPI month-on-month. However, domestic supply was relatively sufficient and the overall CPI year-on-year growth rate remained low. On the industrial production side, the downturn in international energy prices and the fall in seasonal demand for industrial product production caused the PPI to fall year-on-year.\", 'authorid': UUID('001e9255-5522-5a6e-9434-e426fea56df9'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8767744582146406, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'N8HKA2S5CI0TTT551JJ7UDTJD7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:51:19 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'N8HKA2S5CI0TTT551JJ7UDTJD7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9510026a-1981-5d44-ad64-17a44ba21c29'), 'title': 'Import and Export Commentary Report: Demand expansion superimposes the base effect, and foreign trade growth continues to rise', 'author': 'Su Jian', 'orgName': '北京大学经济研究所', 'orgCode': '80446485', 'orgSName': '', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BB2QJny8gCNZYei7v/cKve8=', 'researcher': '苏剑', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000240538'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BB2QJny8gCNZYei7v/cKve8=', 'site': 'Peking University Institute of Economics', 'originalSite': '', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209248_1.pdf?1710169693000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209248_1.pdf?1710169693000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Import and Export Commentary Report: Demand expansion superimposes the base effect, and foreign trade growth continues to rise', 'originalAuthor': '苏剑', 'originalContent': '要点外需扩张叠加基数效应，出口增速继续上涨基数效应，进口额增速继续小幅上涨未来展望：主要经济体经济恢复，外贸增速或将筑底回升2024年1-2月份，按美元计价，中国进出口总值9308.6亿美元，同比增长5.5%。其中，出口5280.1亿美元，同比增长7.1%；进口4028.5亿美元，同比增长3.5%；贸易顺差1251.6亿美元。总体来看，1-2月份出口增速与进口增速均有小幅上行。出口方面，尽管近期并未发生重大影响事件，地缘政治冲突状况也未发生改变，但全球经济走势平稳，较2023年存在企稳迹象，叠加去年同期低基数效应明显，使得1-2月出口金额增速继续上涨，较前期升4.8个百分点。进口方面，中国国内经济走势平稳，经济复苏继续，2024年1、2月制造业PMI为49.2、49.1，均高于2023年12月49.0，制造业企业景气水平有所回升；价格方面，2024年1-2月价格因素贡献继续，使得1-2月进口金额增速继续上涨，较前期升3.3个百分点。', 'content': \"Key points: Expansion of external demand superimposes base effect, export growth continues to rise. Base effect, import growth continues to rise slightly. Future outlook: The economies of major economies have recovered, and foreign trade growth may bottom out and rebound. From January to February 2024, in U.S. dollars, China's total import and export value was US$930.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. Among them, exports were US$528.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; imports were US$402.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%; the trade surplus was US$125.16 billion. Overall, both export growth and import growth increased slightly from January to February. In terms of exports, although there have been no major impact events recently and the geopolitical conflict situation has not changed, the global economic trend is stable and there are signs of stabilization compared with 2023. The low base effect in the same period last year is obvious, resulting in an increase in exports from January to February. The rate continued to rise, up 4.8 percentage points from the previous period. In terms of imports, China's domestic economic trend is stable and economic recovery continues. In January and February 2024, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2 and 49.1, both higher than 49.0 in December 2023. The prosperity level of manufacturing enterprises has rebounded; in terms of prices, in 2024 Price factors continued to contribute from January to February, causing the growth rate of imports from January to February to continue to rise, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous period.\", 'authorid': UUID('001e9255-5522-5a6e-9434-e426fea56df9'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9253579303622246, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'HBKAA1OR1ANINJ4VASV85L1QQ3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:51:22 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'HBKAA1OR1ANINJ4VASV85L1QQ3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('62b918fb-1ec7-53b2-b94d-e9ec66177d05'), 'title': 'Weekly Observation on Risk Pricing of Major Asset Categories-The 2nd Week of March 24', 'author': 'Song Xuetao, Lin Yan', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BEHTYFFGKHlIJwxJc1G3LD8=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛,林彦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658', '11000425634'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BEHTYFFGKHlIJwxJc1G3LD8=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209073_1.pdf?1710146275000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209073_1.pdf?1710146275000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly Observation on Risk Pricing of Major Asset Categories-The 2nd Week of March 24', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛,林彦', 'originalContent': '3月第1周（3月4日-3月8日），美股三大指数涨跌互现，Wind全A下跌0.07%，日均成交小幅下降至10311亿元。30个一级行业过半数下跌；石油石化、有色金属和电力及公用事业涨幅领跑，综合金融、消费者服务和房地产表现靠后。信用债指数上升0.08%，国债指数上涨0.22%。风险提示：地缘冲突进一步升级；经济复苏斜率不及预期；货币政策超预期收紧', 'content': 'In the first week of March (March 4-March 8), the three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed, with Wind all A falling 0.07%, and the average daily turnover dropped slightly to 1,031.1 billion yuan. More than half of the 30 first-level industries fell; petroleum and petrochemicals, nonferrous metals, and electric power and utilities led the gains, while comprehensive finance, consumer services, and real estate lagged behind. The credit bond index rose 0.08% and the government bond index rose 0.22%. Risk warning: geopolitical conflicts further escalate; economic recovery slope is lower than expected; monetary policy tightens beyond expectations', 'authorid': UUID('36e3252c-e8b8-57b7-8761-bedbc96e9406'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9614365119487047, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'G9SH07KDOU3S8TV7HPEIEEVGU7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:51:24 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'G9SH07KDOU3S8TV7HPEIEEVGU7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('782657a3-5451-54e5-89df-4930c56c2934'), 'title': 'Overseas Macro Weekly Report: Gold prices hit record high', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Fan Chengkai', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BIMeMSKnxAv0pToFdQXl7mA=', 'researcher': '钟正生,范城恺', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000369143'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BIMeMSKnxAv0pToFdQXl7mA=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209070_1.pdf?1710146388000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209070_1.pdf?1710146388000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas Macro Weekly Report: Gold prices hit record high', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,范城恺', 'originalContent': '海外经济政策。1）美国：鲍威尔国会听证会发言保持“中性”，预计今年晚些时候降息，对待物价、商业银行风险等谨慎乐观。美国ISM非制造业PMI降幅超预期。美国2月“小非农”略有回暖但不及预期。美国1月职位空缺数略有减少，离职率和招聘率下降。美国最新初请失业金人数略高于预期。美国2月新增非农仍强，但1月数据大幅下修，且失业率超预期上升至3.9%，工资增长放缓，就业市场整体呈现降温。CME降息预期近一周有所升温，6月降息概率由63%上升至73%，全年降息次数预期由3.3次增加至3.5次。2）欧洲：欧洲央行会议语调偏鸽，明示已经开始讨论降息，暗示最快可能4月降息。欧元区服务业和综合PMI上修，四季度GDP终值维持不变。3）日本：日本现金收入超预期增长，日本银行“放鹰”，市场预期3月货币政策或重大调整，令日债利率与日元汇率走高。全球大类资产。1）股市：全球股市涨跌互现，美、日股调整，欧股上涨。美国方面，纳斯达克综指、标普500指数和道琼斯工业指数整周分别下跌1.2%、0.3%和0.9%。宏观层面，虽然宏观数据略有降温，降息预期反弹，但是日本货币政策转向风险上升，打压风险偏好。微观层面，3月8日美股高开，但主要指数创历史新高后回落，科技股领跌，或体现市场“畏高”情绪。2）债市：多数期限美债利率连续第二周回落。10年美债收益率下跌10BP至4.09%，10年TIPS利率（实际利率）整周下跌6BP至1.81%，隐含通胀预期整周下跌4BP至2.28%。非美地区方面，10年德国国债收益率整周下跌14BP至2.27%，主要受欧央行“放鸽”驱动；10年英国国债收益率整周下跌10BP至4.01%；10年日本国债收益率整周上升0.9BP至0.737%，主要受日银转向预期驱动。3）商品：贵金属价格急涨，金价创历史新高，国际油价回调。原油方面，布伦特和WTI原油整周分别下跌1.8%和2.5%，分别至82.1和78.0美元/桶。贵金属方面，黄金和白银现货价整周分别上涨5.9%和7.8%，金价连续7个交易日上涨，3月8日收于2171美元/盎司，创历史新高。一方面，美国降息预期升温，美债利率与美元指数下行；另一方面，美国“超级星期二”落幕，特朗普当选预期或与财政扩张、关税风险相联，增大市场避险情绪。4）外汇：美元指数整周下跌1.10%至102.74，日元大幅升值。美国方面，市场降息预期升温，令美元承压。日本方面，日元兑美元整周涨2.07%，美元兑日元汇率收于147.07，创近一个月新低。最新居民现金收入超预期增长，叠加日银和日本媒体不断暗示货币政策转向在即，令日元明显升值。风险提示：美国经济和通胀超预期上行，美联储降息预期超预期推迟，国际金融风险超预期上升等。', 'content': 'Overseas economic policy. 1) United States: Powell\\'s speech at the Congressional hearing remained \"neutral\" and is expected to cut interest rates later this year. He is cautiously optimistic about prices, commercial bank risks, etc. The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell more than expected. The U.S.’s “small non-farm payrolls” picked up slightly in February but fell short of expectations. The number of job openings in the United States decreased slightly in January, and the turnover rate and hiring rate fell. The latest number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States was slightly higher than expected. The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States was still strong in February, but January\\'s data was significantly revised down, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% more than expected. Wage growth slowed down, and the overall job market showed cooling. CME interest rate cut expectations have increased in the past week, with the probability of an interest rate cut in June rising from 63% to 73%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts throughout the year increasing from 3.3 to 3.5. 2) Europe: The tone of the European Central Bank meeting was dovish, indicating that it has begun discussing an interest rate cut, suggesting that it may cut interest rates as soon as April. The Eurozone service industry and comprehensive PMI were revised upwards, and the final GDP value in the fourth quarter remained unchanged. 3) Japan: Japan’s cash income has grown more than expected, the Bank of Japan is “hawkish”, and the market expects that monetary policy may be significantly adjusted in March, causing Japanese bond interest rates and the yen exchange rate to rise. Major global asset classes. 1) Stock market: Global stock markets were mixed, with US and Japanese stocks adjusting and European stocks rising. In the United States, the Nasdaq Composite Index, S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Index fell 1.2%, 0.3% and 0.9% respectively for the week. At the macro level, although macro data has cooled slightly and interest rate cut expectations have rebounded, Japan\\'s monetary policy has turned to rising risks, suppressing risk appetite. At the micro level, U.S. stocks opened higher on March 8, but the major indexes fell back after hitting record highs. Technology stocks led the decline, which may reflect the market\\'s \"fear of heights\" sentiment. 2) Bond market: U.S. bond interest rates for most maturities fell for the second consecutive week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 10 BP to 4.09%, the 10-year TIPS interest rate (real interest rate) fell 6 BP to 1.81% throughout the week, and the implied inflation expectation fell 4 BP to 2.28% throughout the week. In the non-US region, the 10-year German government bond yield fell 14 BP for the whole week to 2.27%, mainly driven by the European Central Bank\\'s \"dove release\"; the 10-year British government bond yield fell 10 BP for the whole week to 4.01%; the 10-year Japanese government bond yield fell 14 BP for the whole week to 4.01%. Weekly increase of 0.9BP to 0.737%, mainly driven by the Bank of Japan\\'s expected shift. 3) Commodities: Precious metal prices surged, gold prices hit a record high, and international oil prices fell back. In terms of crude oil, Brent and WTI crude oil fell by 1.8% and 2.5% respectively throughout the week, to US$82.1 and US$78.0 per barrel respectively. In terms of precious metals, the spot prices of gold and silver rose by 5.9% and 7.8% respectively throughout the week. The price of gold rose for 7 consecutive trading days, closing at $2,171 per ounce on March 8, a record high. On the one hand, expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut have increased, and U.S. bond interest rates and the U.S. dollar index have declined; on the other hand, the U.S. \"Super Tuesday\" has come to an end, and expectations of Trump\\'s election may be linked to fiscal expansion and tariff risks, increasing market risk aversion. 4) Foreign exchange: The U.S. dollar index fell 1.10% to 102.74 throughout the week, and the Japanese yen appreciated significantly. In the United States, market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, putting pressure on the dollar. In Japan, the yen rose 2.07% against the U.S. dollar for the whole week, and the U.S. dollar-yen exchange rate closed at 147.07, a new low in the past month. The latest cash income of residents increased more than expected, and the Bank of Japan and Japanese media continued to hint that a shift in monetary policy was imminent, causing the yen to appreciate significantly. Risk warning: The U.S. economy and inflation are rising more than expected, the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate cut is expected to be delayed beyond expectations, and international financial risks are rising more than expected, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('1faba558-17d3-5821-ae0e-e52593c216b5'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9339773114770651, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'UFP6HHA2LRPKP3SLONKUNE5LFNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:51:46 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'UFP6HHA2LRPKP3SLONKUNE5LFNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('893993df-3369-5174-8a52-02f0ac3585e9'), 'title': 'Macro and major asset class weekly report: assets across cycles', 'author': 'Yang Weiqiu, Meng Zijun', 'orgName': '国元证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001043', 'orgSName': '国元证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BOp1Jf0JaqxJBrTAUXfFhUc=', 'researcher': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000176619', '11000337831'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BOp1Jf0JaqxJBrTAUXfFhUc=', 'site': 'Guoyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国元证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209062_1.pdf?1710151972000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209062_1.pdf?1710151972000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro and major asset class weekly report: assets across cycles', 'originalAuthor': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'originalContent': '报告要点：本周关注——本周两会召开，政府工作报告再次彰显政策定力。今年政策的力度和方向是市场关注的重点，从政府工作报告来看，政策的定力依旧很强，赤字率目标定在了3%，没有大幅度扩大财政赤字。2月国内CPI同比增速由负转正，主要系春节假期的影响，如果把1、2月份合起来看的话，CPI同比大约在0附近，符合预期。后续预计CPI会在0以上窄��震荡。PPI则继续走平。价格水平对货币政策不存在制约。在上周周报《一个新的问题》中，我们提到要关注地产销售的变化。从30个大中城市商品房销售面积这一数据来看，2024年1、2月的数据同比下跌40%。3月前8日的数据同比下跌59%，幅度和去年比出现了明显的扩大。这一转变可能和流动性梗阻有关。市场表现来看，股市的申万一级行业中，地产行业周跌幅第一，超额负收益显著；商品市场中，与地产相关的品种如螺纹钢、铁矿石、玻璃的价格持续下跌；长债收益率持续下行，10Y国债收益率跌破2.3%。金价续创历史新高，美债实际收益率这一传统的黄金定价锚基本失效。结合其他相关资产的表现来看，本轮金价的飙升应主要系避险情绪所致，这与不断出现的地缘政治冲突，以及美国银行业的或有危机有关。往后来看，金价有望持续上涨。美国2月就业数据显示劳动力市场延续温和放缓、韧性仍存。从绝对水平来看，非农就业与薪酬水平的同比增速依旧处于历史高位，失业率仍处低位；从边际变化来看，就业市场在持续降温，供需缺口在持续弥合。我们维持美联储在年中之后降息的判断。市场反应来看，美债收益率和美元指数几乎持平，美股的回调则主要系科技股的影响。投资建议——宏观经济：虽然金融周期至此，但目前内溢的外部流动性能够基本稳住库存周期，这导致经济基本面至少是平的。资产配置：如果流动性梗阻还在，那risk-off将是一个超出周期理解范畴的趋势。利率债：在宽信用出现之前，建议维持高杠杆、长久期。但监管是需要密切关注的一条可能转向的线索。权益市场：建议保持观望。历史经验来看，历次股市上涨，都需要流动性（狭义社融）或者经济名义增速至少其一的好转。信用市场：在风控允许的范围内，可以尽可能下潜城投信用，目前看，在极端的配置图景下，信用利差有历史性新低的可能；但是地产信用还要等等。商品市场：从绝对价格的角度，当前商品价格是偏高的，但从周期意义上说，商品可能即将出现一个上行的波段，此中尤其可以关注原油价格的修复。风险提示：宏观政策落地不及预期等', 'content': 'Highlights of the report: Pay attention this week - the two sessions will be held this week, and the government work report once again demonstrates the determination of policy. The strength and direction of this year\\'s policies are the focus of the market. Judging from the government work report, the policy is still very determined. The deficit rate target is set at 3%, and the fiscal deficit has not been significantly expanded. In February, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic CPI turned from negative to positive, mainly due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday. If January and February are combined, the year-on-year CPI is around 0, which is in line with expectations. The CPI is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range above 0 in the future. PPI continues to trend flat. The price level has no constraints on monetary policy. In last week\\'s weekly report \"A New Issue\", we mentioned that we should pay attention to changes in real estate sales. Judging from the data on commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium-sized cities, the data in January and February 2024 fell by 40% year-on-year. The data for the first 8 days of March fell 59% year-on-year, which was significantly larger than last year. This change may be related to flow obstruction. In terms of market performance, among the Shenwan first-level industries in the stock market, the real estate industry has the largest weekly decline, with significant excess negative returns; in the commodity market, the prices of real estate-related varieties such as rebar, iron ore, and glass continue to fall; Long-term bond yields continued to decline, with the 10Y Treasury bond yield falling below 2.3%. Gold prices continue to hit record highs, and the traditional gold pricing anchor of U.S. Treasury real yields has basically failed. Combined with the performance of other related assets, the current surge in gold prices should be mainly due to risk aversion, which is related to the emerging geopolitical conflicts and the possible crisis in the U.S. banking industry. Looking forward, gold prices are expected to continue to rise. U.S. employment data for February showed that the labor market continued to slow down moderately and remained resilient. From an absolute level, the year-on-year growth rate of non-agricultural employment and salary levels is still at a historically high level, and the unemployment rate is still at a low level; from a marginal change perspective, the job market continues to cool down, and the supply and demand gap continues to close. We maintain our view that the Fed will cut interest rates after mid-year. Judging from market reaction, U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar index are almost the same, and the correction in U.S. stocks is mainly due to the impact of technology stocks. Investment advice - Macroeconomics: Although the financial cycle has reached this point, the current internal overflow of external liquidity can basically stabilize the inventory cycle, which results in the economic fundamentals being at least flat. Asset allocation: If liquidity obstruction persists, risk-off will be a trend beyond the scope of cycle understanding. Interest rate bonds: Before the emergence of loose credit, it is recommended to maintain high leverage and long term. But regulation is a clue to a possible turn that needs to be watched closely. Equity market: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. Judging from historical experience, every stock market rise requires an improvement in at least one of liquidity (social financing in a narrow sense) or nominal economic growth. Credit market: Within the scope allowed by risk control, you can dive into urban investment credit as much as possible. At present, under the extreme allocation scenario, credit spreads may reach a historic low; but real estate credit has to wait. Commodity market: From an absolute price perspective, current commodity prices are on the high side, but from a cyclical perspective, commodities may be about to experience an upward trend, in which we can especially pay attention to the recovery of crude oil prices. Risk warning: The implementation of macro policies falls short of expectations, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('06a6231a-b667-541e-b1fd-3c96f32864dc'), 'sentimentScore': 0.415925957262516, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '0QMODMCN92U6VCJ3UP3HPRF78JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:51:49 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '0QMODMCN92U6VCJ3UP3HPRF78JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ed6e900d-f58d-501e-838c-c9bb13ea6698'), 'title': 'Market reaction to U.S. non-farm payroll data may be too great', 'author': 'Yang Weiqiu, Meng Zijun', 'orgName': '国元证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001043', 'orgSName': '国元证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BNlmN0H8LOK+VHrTLjL6FfE=', 'researcher': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000176619', '11000337831'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BNlmN0H8LOK+VHrTLjL6FfE=', 'site': 'Guoyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国元证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209061_1.pdf?1710152211000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209061_1.pdf?1710152211000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Market reaction to U.S. non-farm payroll data may be too great', 'originalAuthor': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'originalContent': '报告要点：2月美国非农新增就业人数依旧火热超预期，新增27.5万个岗位。但是前两个月的新增岗位依旧得到下修。非农新增人数下修在2023年其实就经常出现，回溯历史来看，每当在经济下行的阶段时，往往都有不程度的下修，例如08年以及20年这种情况都有出现。这个原因在于企业处于经营压力较大的时期，所以会更晚提交劳工部的问卷。所以，非农数据的频繁下修这件事情，本身可能就代表着劳动力市场的走软，而2月的27.5万可能也有不少水分。失业率的上升和非农新增人数出现背离的根本原因还是在于失业率的统计口径来自于家庭问卷调查，而非农新增来自于企业问卷调查。从家庭问卷调查出发，新增就业人数已经是连续三个月的持续萎缩。可能的解释在于一些自雇人员重新回到劳动力市场，从家庭调查出发，他们的身份从就业者变成了失业者。其他数据来说，经济暂时没有过多的问题：1）劳动参与率虽然走平，但是壮龄劳动参与率重（25-54岁年龄阶段）回疫情前最高水平的83.5%，说明劳动力市场供给侧暂时没有问题；2）平均时薪环比上涨0.1%，远低于上个月的0.5%和预期的0.3%，是2022年以来低单月增幅。工作时长则是回升0.1%，每周有34.3个小时。薪资的回落和工作时长的上升相对展现的是经济走软的信号值得注意的是，移民人数在2月有所跳涨，这可能和近期非法移民的事件有关，这些人暂时被统计在失业人数中。如果失业率的推升有这方面的影响，那么这个失业率的上升也并非全是坏消息。整体来看，这份就业数据报告算是一个乐观的消息。比起相对有水份的新增岗位，而实际放缓的薪资增速以及上升的失业率更为重要。美国劳动力市场依旧延续着去年年末的走��，劳动力在温和放缓。数据上来看看不出衰退的迹象，但当然也没有要二次起飞的迹象。降息预期依旧保持在不早于24年年中，而接下来的数据持续爆冷与否，是影响降息次数是否变化的最重要的变量。风险提示：海外宏观政策落地不及预期等', 'content': \"Report highlights: The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in February was still hotter than expected, with 275,000 new jobs added. However, the number of new jobs in the first two months was still revised downwards. In fact, downward revisions to the number of new non-agricultural workers often occur in 2023. Looking back at history, whenever the economy is in a downward stage, there are often downward revisions to varying degrees. For example, this happened in 2008 and 2020. . The reason for this is that companies are in a period of greater operating pressure, so they will submit the Ministry of Labor's questionnaire later. Therefore, the frequent downward revisions of non-agricultural data may itself represent a softening of the labor market, and February's figure of 275,000 may also have a lot of water. The fundamental reason for the divergence between the rise in the unemployment rate and the number of new non-agricultural workers is that the statistical basis of the unemployment rate comes from household questionnaire surveys, while the new non-agricultural workers come from corporate questionnaire surveys. Starting from the household questionnaire survey, the number of new jobs has been shrinking for three consecutive months. A possible explanation is that some self-employed people return to the labor market and their status changes from employed to unemployed based on household surveys. As for other data, the economy does not have too many problems for the time being: 1) Although the labor participation rate is flat, the prime-age labor participation rate (25-54 years old) has returned to the highest level before the epidemic of 83.5%, indicating that the labor market supply There is no problem for the time being; 2) The average hourly wage increased by 0.1% month-on-month, which was far lower than the 0.5% last month and the expected 0.3%. It was the lowest single-month increase since 2022. Working hours rose by 0.1% to 34.3 hours per week. The fall in wages and the rise in working hours are relatively signs of a weakening economy. It is worth noting that the number of immigrants jumped in February. This may be related to the recent illegal immigration incidents. These people are temporarily included in the unemployment number. . If the rise in unemployment has that effect, then it's not all bad news. Overall, this employment data report is optimistic news. Compared with the relatively promising new jobs, the actual slowdown in wage growth and the rising unemployment rate are more important. The U.S. labor market continues the trend seen at the end of last year, with the labor force slowing down moderately. There are no signs of recession from the data, but there are certainly no signs of a second take-off. Interest rate cuts are still expected to be no earlier than mid-2024, and whether the following data continues to be disappointing is the most important variable that affects whether the number of interest rate cuts will change. Risk warning: The implementation of overseas macro policies falls short of expectations, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('06a6231a-b667-541e-b1fd-3c96f32864dc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9428798500448465, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '6NQ4HNJ7LLUCAHFVUQPRP0SBMNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:51:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '6NQ4HNJ7LLUCAHFVUQPRP0SBMNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6c22e0a1-4433-5741-ba52-ab5060f721b9'), 'title': 'Technology Week Observation: Broadcom’s quarterly semiconductor revenue fell short of expectations, and AI revenue guidance was raised', 'author': 'Li Hao, Zhang Weizhen', 'orgName': '德邦证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000217', 'orgSName': '德邦证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BE4pCsC0WJGxXuvBZc8tUeI=', 'researcher': '李浩,张威震', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000302631', '11000430135'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BE4pCsC0WJGxXuvBZc8tUeI=', 'site': 'Debon Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '德邦证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209054_1.pdf?1710151896000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209054_1.pdf?1710151896000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Technology Week Observation: Broadcom’s quarterly semiconductor revenue fell short of expectations, and AI revenue guidance was raised', 'originalAuthor': '���浩,张威震', 'originalContent': '市场表现：TMT表现弱于周期稳定风格，AI算力产业链仍是市场关注焦点。本周（03.04-03.08）上证指数收报3046.02，上涨0.63%，深证成指下跌0.70%，创业板指下跌0.92%，北证50下跌6.17%，沪深300上涨0.20%，万得全A下跌0.04%，恒生指数下跌1.42%，恒生科技下跌2.94%。从风格角度看，本周稳定风格（2.56%）相对表现最好，周期风格（1.65%）表现次之，成长风格（-0.41%）、消费风格（-1.03%）、金融风格（-1.26%）均出现不同程度的下跌。从产业链角度看，本周上游、中游、下游产业链环节分别上涨4.41%、上涨0.46%、下跌1.24%，基础设施及建设上涨1.60%，金融地产下跌1.38%，TMT下跌0.25%。TMT板块中：1）电子行业整体下跌0.17%，较上周表现有所回调，消费电子本周略有上涨，光学光电则有所下跌，半导体中集成电路、分立器件有所下跌，半导体设备略有上涨，PCB行业本周则受到AI服务器等因素催化而大涨8.69%。2）计算机行业整体下跌1.07%，细分行业中本周仅通用计算机设备出现明显上涨（+4.63%），主要与AI服务器有关。3）通信行业整体上涨2.87%，本周运营商（+2.79%）、光模块（+4.13%）均表现较好。4）传媒行业整体下跌2.32%，细分板块中仅出版（+2.03%）行业出现明显上涨，其他行业表现较弱。总结来看，本周A股市场以震荡为主、略有上涨，大盘和中小盘表现较为均衡，港股则略有下跌。稳定、周期风格表现较好，对应产业链上游的石油化工、有色、煤炭、钢铁等行业和电力公用等基础设施，制造板块略有上涨。本周TMT板块中，市场关注焦点仍在AI服务器与算力产业链，运营商和CPO推动通信板块上涨，PCB行业的大涨也主要缘于AI服务器、交换机等AI基础设施需求的增长。热点跟踪：博通FY24Q1季报半导体收入不及市场预期，AI收入指引上调。3月8日上午，博通（AVGO）披露其FY2024Q1业绩。1）整体上看：包含VMware收入，博通FQ1收入同比增长34.2%至约120亿美元（不含VMware，FQ1收入同比增长11%），略超市场预期；Q1单季度毛利率74.0%、净利率11.1%，Non-GAAP净利率43.9%（同比下降6.36pcts）。展望FY2024，预计全年营收将同比增长40%至500亿美元，调整后EBITDA预计为300亿美元。2）半导体：FQ1收入74亿美元（YoY+4%），低于市场预期，毛利率约67%（同比下降约1.9pcts）。具体分项中，网络业务由于AI相关需求而呈现高速增长，其他无线、存储连接、宽带、工业等业务均有所疲软。AI相关收入Q1同比增长4倍至23亿美元，预计在FY24收入占比将提升至35%的100亿美元，较此前指引（25%占比）有所提升，而增量中约70%贡献来自AI ASIC。预计FY24半导体板块收入将实现高个位数同比增速。3）软件业务：FQ1收入同比增长152.8%至45.71亿美元（含VMware的21亿美元），毛利率约为88%，略超市场预期。展望2024财年，博通预计VCF的强劲需求和积压订单将推动软件业务将实现200亿美元营收。投资建议：从博通的季报指引来看，2024年AI相关业务仍将保持高速增长，建议持续关注AI芯片、服务器、数据中心、光通信、晶圆代工、先进封装等产业链。风险提示：AI应用需求不及预期风险；人工智能技术路线变更风险；人工智能产业监管政策超预期风险。', 'content': \"Market performance: TMT's performance is weaker than the cyclical stability style, and the AI \\u200b\\u200bcomputing power industry chain is still the focus of the market. This week (03.04-03.08), the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3046.02, up 0.63%, the Shenzhen Composite Component Index fell 0.70%, the GEM Index fell 0.92%, the BSE 50 fell 6.17%, the CSI 300 rose 0.20%, and the Wind All A fell 0.04%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.42%, and Hang Seng Technology fell 2.94%. From a style perspective, stable style (2.56%) performed best this week, followed by cyclical style (1.65%), growth style (-0.41%), consumption style (-1.03%), and financial style (-1.26%). ) all experienced varying degrees of decline. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream, midstream, and downstream industrial chain links increased by 4.41%, 0.46%, and 1.24% respectively this week. Infrastructure and construction increased by 1.60%, financial real estate fell by 1.38%, and TMT fell by 0.25%. In the TMT sector: 1) The electronics industry overall fell by 0.17%, a slight correction from last week's performance. Consumer electronics rose slightly this week, optics and optoelectronics fell, integrated circuits and discrete devices in semiconductors fell, and semiconductor equipment fell slightly. There has been an increase, and the PCB industry has surged 8.69% this week, catalyzed by factors such as AI servers. 2) The computer industry as a whole fell by 1.07%. Among the sub-sectors, only general computer equipment saw a significant increase this week (+4.63%), mainly related to AI servers. 3) The communications industry as a whole rose by 2.87%. This week, operators (+2.79%) and optical modules (+4.13%) both performed well. 4) The media industry as a whole fell by 2.32%. Among the sub-sectors, only the publishing (+2.03%) industry saw a significant increase, while other industries performed weakly. In summary, the A-share market was mainly volatile this week with a slight increase. The performance of the large-cap and small- and medium-cap markets was relatively balanced, while the Hong Kong stock market fell slightly. The stable and cyclical style performed better, corresponding to the petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel and other industries in the upper reaches of the industrial chain, as well as infrastructure such as electric power and public utilities, and the manufacturing sector rose slightly. In the TMT sector this week, the market's focus is still on the AI \\u200b\\u200bserver and computing power industry chain. Operators and CPOs have driven the rise in the communications sector. The surge in the PCB industry is also mainly due to the growth in demand for AI infrastructure such as AI servers and switches. Hotspot tracking: Broadcom’s FY24Q1 quarterly report semiconductor revenue fell short of market expectations, and its AI revenue guidance was raised. On the morning of March 8, Broadcom (AVGO) disclosed its FY2024Q1 results. 1) Overall: Including VMware revenue, Broadcom's FQ1 revenue increased by 34.2% year-on-year to approximately US$12 billion (excluding VMware, FQ1 revenue increased by 11% year-on-year), slightly exceeding market expectations; Q1 single-quarter gross profit margin and net profit margin were 74.0%. 11.1%, Non-GAAP net profit margin was 43.9% (a year-on-year decrease of 6.36pcts). Looking forward to FY2024, full-year revenue is expected to increase 40% year-on-year to US$50 billion, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be US$30 billion. 2) Semiconductors: FQ1 revenue was US$7.4 billion (YoY+4%), lower than market expectations, with a gross profit margin of approximately 67% (a year-on-year decrease of approximately 1.9pcts). Among specific sub-categories, the network business has shown rapid growth due to AI-related demand, while other wireless, storage connection, broadband, industrial and other businesses have experienced weakness. AI-related revenue increased 4 times year-on-year in Q1 to US$2.3 billion. It is expected that the revenue share in FY24 will increase to 35% of US$10 billion, which is an increase from the previous guidance (25% share), and will contribute about 70% of the increase. from AI ASIC. The semiconductor segment revenue is expected to achieve high single-digit year-on-year growth in FY24. 3) Software business: FQ1 revenue increased by 152.8% year-on-year to US$4.571 billion (including US$2.1 billion from VMware), with a gross profit margin of approximately 88%, slightly exceeding market expectations. Looking forward to fiscal 2024, Broadcom expects strong demand for VCF and backlog of orders to drive the software business to achieve revenue of US$20 billion. Investment advice: Judging from Broadcom’s quarterly report guidance, AI-related businesses will still maintain rapid growth in 2024. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to industry chains such as AI chips, servers, data centers, optical communications, wafer foundry, and advanced packaging. Risk warning: the risk of AI application demand being less than expected; the risk of changes in the artificial intelligence technology route; the risk of artificial intelligence industry regulatory policies exceeding expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('f36e6c53-cdea-5b4e-b7e6-89039329716a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9356269091367722, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'HAJV0K2BFCOBN90JAEFQIULANNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:51:54 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'HAJV0K2BFCOBN90JAEFQIULANNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('18a50922-916f-5d4e-81c9-6bc69fba94af'), 'title': 'Weekly report: Consumption recovery helps CPI strengthen, government work report boosts economic expectations', 'author': 'Fu Yang,Liu Qingdong,Liu Qian', 'orgName': '中航证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000197', 'orgSName': '中航证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UlEKt8Na66d3YTZ16xVqres=', 'researcher': '符旸,刘庆东,刘倩', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177393', '11000268232', '11000424332'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UlEKt8Na66d3YTZ16xVqres=', 'site': 'AVIC Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中航证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626202613_1.pdf?1710149784000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626202613_1.pdf?1710149784000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly report: Consumption recovery helps CPI strengthen, government work report boosts economic expectations', 'originalAuthor': '符旸,刘庆东,刘倩', 'originalContent': '消费修复，CPI明显走强2024年2月CPI同比为+0.7%，较上月+1.5PCTS，时隔4个月再次转正，高于市场预期。分食品和非食品看，2024年2月食品项和非食品项CPI同比分别-0.9%和+1.1%，分别较上月+5.OPCTS和+0.7PCTS。今年2月，食品项和非食品项价格同比均较1月明显走强。食品项方面，上月拖累性较强的猪肉项和鲜菜项均实现了同比转正，其中鲜菜项录得+2.9%（上月-12.67%），猪肉项录得了+0.2%（上月为-17.3%），非食品项方面，交通通信项和教育文化和娱乐项较较1月明显走强走强走强走强，同比分别录得-0.4%和+3.9%，较上月分别+2.0PCTs和+2.6PCTS。去除食品和能源后，2024年2月核心CPI同比为+1.2%,较1月+0.8PCTS。2024年2月CPI环比录得+1.0%，较上月+0.7PCTS,剔除春节假期主要在1月的2017、2020和2023年后，较近10年均值高0.2PCTS。2024年2月核心CPI环比录得+0.5%，较上月+0.2PCTS，剔除春节假期主要在1月的年份后，比近10年同月环比均值高0.3PCTS，显示扣除价格波动较大的食品项和能源项后，2月核心CPI环比强于季节性。总体来看，今年2月CPI以及核心CPI的走强虽然部分受到了今年春节在2月而去年春节在1月的春节错位因素影响，但结合CPI和核心CPI环比明显强于季节性来看，居民消费的明显修复对2月CPI的走强起到了较大作用，这也与我们此前所观察到的春节前后居民旅游、出行等高频数据已经强于疫情之前相互印证。考虑到去年上半年猪肉和原油价格基数走低，结合目前消费复苏的良好趋势，预计今年上半年CPI同比有望整体上行。2024年2月，PPI同比-2.7%,较上月-0.2PCTS,环比为-0.2%,与上月相同。2024年2月PPIRM同比-3.4%，与上月相同，环比为-0.2%，与上月持平。从工业子行业角度，2024年2月，30个子行业中，有7个子行业PPI环比为正，较7月减少3个子行业，但石油和天然气开采业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业以及化学纤维制造业价格的强势反弹下，2月PPI环比持平于1月。与CPI受消费反弹的支撑不同，2月春节假期之下，工业企业生产放缓，PPI受到了一定拖累。分子行业类别看，主要受输入性因素影响的原油产业链价格表现相对强势，而受到房地产和基建拖累的黑色金属、非金属矿物产业链价格表现相对弱势，体现了我国经济不同部门复苏节奏差异对工业品价格走势的影响。去年上半年工业品价格基数下降，结合当前工业的整体的恢复趋势，预计今年上半年PPI同比降幅将逐渐走低。政府工作报告指明方向，提振今年经济增长预期2024年GDP增长目标设为5%左右，与2023年目标相同。我们认为，这一目标并不低。2023年5%的目标在当时普遍被市场解读为偏向保守，原因在于2022年因疫情因素扰动，我国2022年GDP增速只有3%，在疫情因素消退，同比低基数利好之下，经济回归常态的2023年实现5%的增速并不困难。2023年我国GDP实际增速为5.2%，2024年要在基数抬升的基础上再实现5%左右的GDP增速，实际隐含的预期是今年经济动能的恢复要比去年更强劲。财政政策上：会议提出，今年赤字率拟按3%安排，与去年两会目标值持平，但低于去年增发1万亿元特别国债后的3.8%，这一水平基本处于市场预期区间的下限。赤字规模4.06万亿元，比上年年初预算增加1800亿元。一般公共预算支出规模28.5万亿元、比上年增加1.1万亿元，同比增速为3.8%，低于2023年的5.4%和2022年的6.1％。从上述数据来看，今年一般公共预算口径下的财政支出和赤字力度并不算强。但在我国仍面临有效需求不足、社会预期偏弱等问题的背景下，私人部门加杠杆、扩需求的意愿和能力均存在不足，政府部门加杠杆支撑内需以打通宽货币向宽信用的传导渠道有较强的必要性，此时就需要中央政府来更多承担加杠杆的职责。因此，在去年推出1万亿特别国债之后，市场对今年继续发行特别国债存有预期。政府工作报告提到：“从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。”结合去年增设的1万亿特别国债有5000亿元结转今年使用，对应今年有1.5万亿元的特别国债用于支撑项目投资，直接形成投资额的话将推动固定资产投资总额增长3个百分点。在政府性基金支出发力的情况下，今年广义财政口径下的支出力度并不弱，此外，报告强调增强宏观政策取向一致性，提出“研究储备政策要增强前瞻性、丰富工具箱，并留出冗余度，确保一旦需要就能及时推出、有效发挥作用”，表明各项政策为了适应经济形势的变化和需要，后续或还有灵活调整的空间，因此财政政策对内需的支撑值得期待。货币政策方面，政府工作报告提出：稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效；保持流动性合理充裕，社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配；加强总量和结构双重调节，盘活存量、提升效能；加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度；促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降；保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。上述表述与去年底的中央经济工作会议基本一致，显示货币政策基调保持稳定，未出现明显变化。在内需总体不足的基本面没有得到根本扭转的前提下，年内稳增长政策发力离不开货币政策的进一步支持。“促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降”既指向了名义利率可能进一步调降，同时也显示了要防范通缩压力，驱动实际利率水平下降。今年2月，降准和LPR降息接连落地，明确了货币政策支持经济复苏的明确立场。从近年来的LPR走势来看，1年期LPR自2022年以来调整了3次，5年期及以上LPR则是下调了4次，基本上保持每年调整2次的节奏。预计年内政策利率仍有进一步调降的空间，特别是在美联储开启降息前后（CME数据显示，目前市场对美联储降息时点的预期是6月），我国货币政策宽松空间有望进一步打开。央行行长潘功胜表示“后续仍有降准空间”，下周MLF续作操作需关注当前资金面较为平稳，以DR007为代表的资金利率在政策利率上方小幅波动。截止3月8日，DR007报收1.86%，较上周五上行4BP；SHIBOR1W报收1.85%,较上周五上行4BP。公开市场操作方面，跨月结束后央行公开市场操作规模重回低量，周内共投放7D逆回购500亿元，利率维持1.80%；逆回购到期11640亿元，通过逆回购净回笼流动性11140元。下周五将有4810亿元的MLF到期，央行MLF续作规模和利率水平续重点关注。2024年春节后首周即宣布下调5年期LPR25BP至3.95%，在资金面宽松预期下十年期国债收益率一路下行，当前已落至MLF政策利率下方。MLF续作利率或向市场利率“回归”。在3月6日的十四届全国人大二次会议经济主题记者会上，央行行长潘功胜表示，目前我国银行业存款准备金率平均在7%，后续仍然有降准空间，持续为货币宽松预期加码。结合去年底中央经济工作会议和刚结束的两会对于货币政策的表态延续“稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效；保持流动性合理充裕”的总基调，我们认为在内需总体不足的基本面没有得到根本扭转的前提下，年内稳增长政策发力离不开货币政策的进一步支持，年内货币政策进一步宽松值得期待。非农就业报告显示美国劳动力市场具有韧性但有降温迹象，6月降息预期强化，美债收益率下行，人民币汇率持续小幅波动截至3月9日，美国10年期国债收益率录得4.09%，较上周五下行10BP。3月8日，美国劳工局公布最新的非农就业报告数据。报告显示美国2月的劳动力市场有所降温，但是仍具有韧性：2月新增非农就业人口27.5万，较分析师预期多增7.5万；失业率升至3.9%，创两年来新高；工资较1月增长放缓，同比增速持平预期的4.3%，环比增速0.1%，低于预期的0.2%。最新报告强化了市场对美联储6月开启降息的预期，当前CMEFEDWatch显示市场预期美联储年内降息4次，降息力度加大。此外，鲍威尔周内在国会作证时重申年内降息预期，他表示1月份强劲的通胀和就业数据并未改变美联储关于今年晚些时候适宜降息的预期，但官员们希望看到更多证据表明通胀正在放缓。周内美元指数加速下行，周五报收102.74,较上周五下行1.1%。美债收益率跌幅近10BP,人民币汇率外部压力边际趋缓。截止3月8日，人民币兑美元即期汇率报收7.1918，周内持续小幅波动。宽松预期助推10年期国债收益率突破2.3%截止3月8日，我国10年期国债收益率报收2.28%，较上周五下行9BP；1年期国债收益率报收1.75%，较上周五下行3BP，长端利率快速下行带动期限利差回落，本周五期限利差录得53.00BP，较上周五下行5.42BP。央行行长潘功胜对货币政策工“后续仍然有降准空间”的表态点燃了债市的做多情绪，10年期国债收益率在2月下旬突破2.40%的关口后进一步发力，本周一举突破历史性的2.30%，超出市场预期。基本面上近期发布的进出口数据显示开年前两个月外贸有企稳改善迹象，1-2月进出口同比增长数据均处于正区间，且货物进出口规���创历史同期新高，外贸实现良好开局。CPI方面，受春节期间消费需求增加等因素影响，中国2月CPI同比增速转正，录得0.7%，环比上涨1.0%。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅比上月扩大0.8个百分点，为2022年2月以来最高涨幅。不过，春节假日工业生产处于传统淡季，PPI同比加速放缓。但是经济基本面是否持续修复乃至国内内需和循环是否能有本质上的提升后续内需进一步修复有待政策发力，特别是1万亿特别国债对内需的带动效果值得期待。在此之前基本面对债市尚难构成利空因素。长期来看，处于缓释金融系统风险、维持地方债务滚续的要求，货币政策进一步宽松可期，政策利率下行以及增加流动性投放均有利于债市长端利率的趋势性下移，以实现政府债券“降本增效”的目标。但当前债市情绪性交易已达到高点，短期内需关注政府债发行等影响下导致的资金波动以及止盈情绪等因素引发的债市波动增大。风险提示：国际局势出现黑天鹅利空事件；海外宏观经济下行超预期；国内稳增长政策效果不及预期；国内需求端恢复速度显著偏慢', 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'消费修复，CPI明显走强2024年2月CPI同比为+0.7%，较上月+1.5PCTS，时隔4个月再次转正，高于市场预期。分食品和非食品看，2024年2月食品项和非食品项CPI同比分别-0.9%和+1.1%，分别较上月+5.OPCTS和+0.7PCTS。今年2月，食品项和非食品项价格同比均较1月明显走强。食品项方面，上月拖累性较强的猪肉项和鲜菜项均实现了同比转正，其中鲜菜项录得+2.9%（上月-12.67%），猪肉项录得了+0.2%（上月为-17.3%），非食品项方面，交通通信项和教育文化和娱乐项较较1月明显走强走强走强走强，同比分别录得-0.4%和+3.9%，较上月分别+2.0PCTs和+2.6PCTS。去除食品和能源后，2024年2月核心CPI同比为+1.2%,较1月+0.8PCTS。2024年2月CPI环比录得+1.0%，较上月+0.7PCTS,剔除春节假期主要在1月的2017、2020和2023年后，较近10年均值高0.2PCTS。2024年2月核心CPI环比录得+0.5%，较上月+0.2PCTS，剔除春节假期主要在1月的年份后，比近10年同月环比均值高0.3PCTS，显示扣除价格波动较大的食品项和能源项后，2月核心CPI环比强于季节性。总体来看，今年2月CPI以及核心CPI的走强虽然部分受到了今年春节在2月而去年春节在1月的春节错位因素影响，但结合CPI和核心CPI环比明显强于季节性来看，居民消费的明显修复对2月CPI的走强起到了较大作用，这也与我们此前所观察到的春节前后居民旅游、出行等高频数据已经强于疫情之前相互印证。考虑到去年上半年猪肉和原油价格基数走低，结合目前消费复苏的良好趋势，预计今年上半年CPI同比有望整体上行。2024年2月，PPI同比-2.7%,较上月-0.2PCTS,环比为-0.2%,与上月相同。2024年2月PPIRM同比-3.4%，与上月相同，环比为-0.2%，与上月持平。从工业子行业角度，2024年2月，30个子行业中，有7个子行业PPI环比为正，较7月减少3个子行业，但石油和天然气开采业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业以及化学纤维制造业价格的强势反弹下，2月PPI环比持平于1月。与CPI受消费反弹的支撑不同，2月春节假期之下，工业企业生产放缓，PPI受到了一定拖累。分子行业类别看，主要受输入性因素影响的原油产业链价格表现相对强势，而受到房地产和基建拖累的黑色金属、非金属矿物产业链价格表现相对弱势，体现了我国经济不同部门复苏节奏差异对工业品价格走势的影响。去年上半年工业品价格基数下降，结合当前工业的整体的恢复趋势，预计今年上半年PPI同比降幅将逐渐走低。政府工作报告指明方向，提振今年经济增长预期2024年GDP增长目标设为5%左右，与2023年目标相同。我们认为，这一目标并不低。2023年5%的目标在当时普遍被市场解读为偏向保守，原因在于2022年因疫情因素扰动，我国2022年GDP增速只有3%，在疫情因素消退，同比低基数利好之下，经济回归常态的2023年实现5%的增速并不困难。2023年我国GDP实际增速为5.2%，2024年要在基数抬升的基础上再实现5%左右的GDP增速，实际隐含的预期是今年经济动能的恢复要比去年更强劲。财政政策上：会议提出，今年赤字率拟按3%安排，与去年两会目标值持平，但低于去年增发1万亿元特别国债后的3.8%，这一水平基本处于市场预期区间的下限。赤字规模4.06万亿元，比上年年初预算增加1800亿元。一般公共预算支出规模28.5万亿元、比上年增加1.1万亿元，同比增速为3.8%，低于2023年的5.4%和2022年的6.1％。从上述数据来看，今年一般公共预算口径下的财政支出和赤字力度并不算强。但在��国仍面临有效需求不足、社会预期偏弱等问题的背景下，私人部门加杠杆、扩需求的意愿和能力均存在不足，政府部门加杠杆支撑内需以打通宽货币向宽信用的传导渠道有较强的必要性，此时就需要中央政府来更多承担加杠杆的职责。因此，在去年推出1万亿特别国债之后，市场对今年继续发行特别国债存有预期。政府工作报告提到：“从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。”结合去年增设的1万亿特别国债有5000亿元结转今年使用，对应今年有1.5万亿元的特别国债用于支撑项目投资，直接形成投资额的话将推动固定资产投资总额增长3个百分点。在政府性基金支出发力的情况下，今年广义财政口径下的支出力度并不弱，此外，报告强调增强宏观政策取向一致性，提出“研究储备政策要增强前瞻性、丰富工具箱，并留出冗余度，确保一旦需要就能及时推出、有效发挥作用”，表明各项政策为了适应经济形势的变化和需要，后续或还有灵活调整的空间，因此财政政策对内需的支撑值得期待。货币政策方面，政府工作报告提出：稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效；保持流动性合理充裕，社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配；加强总量和结构双重调节，盘活存量、提升效能；加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度；促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降；保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。上述表述与去年底的中央经济工作会议基本一致，显示货币政策基调保持稳定，未出现明显变化。在内需总体不足的基本面没有得到根本扭转的前提下，年内稳增长政策发力离不开货币政策的进一步支持。“促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降”既指向了名义利率可能进一步调降，同时也显示了要防范通缩压力，驱动实际利率水平下降。今年2月，降准和LPR降息接连落地，明确了货币政策支持经济复苏的明确立场。从近年来的LPR走势来看，1年期LPR自2022年以来调整了3次，5年期及以上LPR则是下调了4次，基本上保持每年调整2次的节奏。预计年内政策利率仍有进一步调降的空间，特别是在美联储开启降息前后（CME数据显示，目前市场对美联储降息时点的预期是6月），我国货币政策宽松空间有望进一步打开。央行行长潘功胜表示“后续仍有降准空间”，下周MLF续作操作需关注当前资金面较为平稳，以DR007为代表的资金利率在政策利率上方小幅波动。截止3月8日，DR007报收1.86%，较上周五上行4BP；SHIBOR1W报收1.85%,较上周五上行4BP。公开市场操作方面，跨月结束后央行公开市场操作规模重回低量，周内共投放7D逆回购500亿元，利率维持1.80%；逆回购到期11640亿元，通过逆回购净回笼流动性11140元。下周五将有4810亿元的MLF到期，央行MLF续作规模和利率水平续重点关注。2024年春节后首周即宣布下调5年期LPR25BP至3.95%，在资金面宽松预期下十年期国债收益率一路下行，当前已落至MLF政策利率下方。MLF续作利率或向市场利率“回归”。在3月6日的十四届全国人大二次会议经济主题记者会上，央行行长潘功胜表示，目前我国银行业存款准备金率平均在7%，后续仍然有降准空间，持续为货币宽松预期加码。结合去年底中央经济工作会议和刚结束的两会对于货币政策的表态延续“稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效；保持流动性合理充裕”的总基调，我们认为在内需总体不足的基本面没有得到根本扭转的前提下，年内稳增长政策发力离不开货币政策的进一步支持，年内货币政策进一步宽松值得期待。非农就业报告显示美国劳动力市场具有韧性但有降温迹象，6月降息预期强化，美债收益率下行，人民币汇率持续小幅波动截至3月9日，美国10年期国债收益率录得4.09%，较上周五下行10BP。3月8日，美国劳工局公布最新的非农就业报告数据。报告显示美国2月的劳动力市场有所降温，但是仍具有韧性：2月新增非农就业人口27.5万，较分析师预期多增7.5万；失业率升至3.9%，创两年来新高；工资较1月增长放缓，同比增速持平预期的4.3%，环比增速0.1%，低于预期的0.2%。最新报告强化了市场对美联储6月开启降息的预期，当前CMEFEDWatch显示市场预期美联储年内降息4次，降息力度加大。此外，鲍威尔周内在国会作证时重申年内降息预期，他表示1月份强劲的通胀和就业数据并未改变美联储关于今年晚些时候适宜降息的预期，但官员们希望看到更多证据表明通胀正在放缓。周内美元指数加速下行，周五报收102.74,较上周五下行1.1%。美债收益率跌幅近10BP,人民币汇率外部压力边际趋缓。截止3月8日，人民币兑美元即期汇率报收7.1918，周内持续小幅波动。宽松预期助推10年期国债收益率突破2.3%截止3月8日，我国10年期国债收益率报收2.28%，较上周五下行9BP；1年期国债收益率报收1.75%，较上周五下行3BP，长端利率快速下行带动期限利差回落，本周五期限利差录得53.00BP，较上周五下行5.42BP。央行行长潘功胜对货币政策工“后续仍然有降准空间”的表态点燃了债市的做多情绪，10年期国债收益率在2月下旬突破2.40%的关口后进一步发力，本周一举突破历史性的2.30%，超出市场预期。基本面上近期发布的进出口数据显示开年前两个月外贸有企稳改善迹象，1-2月进出口同比增长数据均处于正区间，且货物进出口规模创历史同期新高，外贸实现良好开局。CPI方面，受春节期间消费需求增加等因素影响，中国2月CPI同比增速转正，录得0.7%，环比上涨1.0%。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅比上月扩大0.8个百分点，为2022年2月以来最高涨幅。不过，春节假日工业生产处于传统淡季，PPI同比加速放缓。但是经济基本面是否持续修复乃至国内内需和循环是否能有本质上的提升后续内需进一步修复有待政策发力，特别是1万亿特别国债对内需的带动效果值得期待。在此之前基本面对债市尚难构成利空因素。长期来看，处于缓释金融系统风险、维持地方债务滚续的要求，货币政策进一步宽松可期，政策利率下行以及增加流动性投放均有利于债市长端利率的趋势性下移，以实现政府债券“降本增效”的目标。但当前债市情绪性交易已达到高点，短期内需关注政府债发行等影响下导致的资金波动以及止盈情绪等因素引发的债市波动增大。风险提示：国际局势出现黑天鹅利空事件；海外宏观经济下行超预期；国内稳增长政策效果不及预期；国内需求端恢复速度显著偏慢', 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'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000317034', '11000404332', '11000449040', '11000415535'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UuQoeeRqG65SoiJSnhXBmf0=', 'site': 'Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '民生证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626202498_1.pdf?1710144639000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626202498_1.pdf?1710144639000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas Weekly: Pay attention to China’s leading vertical products and pay attention to financial reports exceeding expectations', 'originalAuthor': '易永坚,徐熠雯,柴梦婷,李华熠', 'originalContent': '本期观点&投资建议：1)教培短期催化减弱，进入阶段性真空期，但是我们全年推荐，从2023年年末各类教培政策来看，维持“保护合法，打击非法”的基调；从近期新东方、好未来披露的季报来看，景气度确定延续。我们认为教培是未来2年少有的边际向上赛道，值得重视。除了持续推荐新东方、建议关注好未来、学大教育，我们也建议关注正在发生积极变化的高途。2)重视有回购&大股东增持的互联网龙头的估值修复，参考OTA龙头携程最新财报超预期表现，我们认为中国互联网企业的价值需重估。3)推荐互联网券商平台，建议关注富途控股和老虎证券。消费&教育，1）消费：a）携程作为OTA龙头，国内业务稳健，出境业务复苏优于行业，国际业务有望带来增量，继续推荐。b）Q1仍处于咖啡淡季，瑞幸高速开店对短期业绩造成压力；但我们认为行业格局优化，瑞幸龙头地位有望得到进一步巩固，近期优惠力度有所减弱价格逐步企稳，关注旺季临近带来的杯量回升情况。c）茶饮行业竞争日趋激烈，奈雪、乐乐茶更新加盟政策降低准入门槛，沪上阿姨发布新品牌切入轻乳茶及平价市场。2）K12教培：“双减”三年，行业政策更加清晰化、法制化，教育部发布《校外培训管理条例（征求意见稿）》，显著性利好行业发展。供需失衡的背景下，头部企业的供给承载优势更加显著，营收、网点、递延收入等指标较快增长。继续重点推荐新东方，积极关注好未来、学大教育、高途、思考乐教育、卓越教育集团。科技互联网，1）电商零售：京东发布2023年第四季度及全年财报，2023年全年净营收为10847亿元，同比增长3.7%；经调整归属于普通股东的净利润为352亿元，超市场预期。建议关注电商巨头阿里巴巴、拼多多。2）长短视频：长视频ARM提升和持续推出优质内容驱动的会员数增加为核心逻辑，建议关注龙头爱奇艺。短视频：a）电商业务增速较高，泛货架创增量；b）广告持续修复，内循环广告增速高；c）本地生活等新业态有望打开新成长空间。盈利侧：部分中短视频企业开始靠近盈利目标实现的时间节点，未来核心关注收入增长带来的盈利杠杆驱动利润释放，建议关注快手、哔哩哔哩。3）车后市场：市场调查机构Gartner最新报告预估，2027年纯电汽车的平均生产成本将低于同级别内燃机汽车，但平均维修成本将增加30%，建议关注途虎-W。新股初识：1）本周递交/更新/公开披露招股书：①港股：4家公司，CaroteLtd、西悦飞机有限公司、武汉有机控股有限公司、趣致集团；②美股：荣业食品（WYHG）、泰安隆泰（LUD）。2）本周获备案通知书：①港股：4家公司，康沣生物科技（上海）股份有限公司、宁波健世科技股份有限公司、中创新航科技集团股份有限公司、厦门燕之屋燕窝产业股份有限公司。②美股：Star Fashion CultureHoldings Limited（星际时尚文化控股有限公司）。3）成功上市：①港股：泓基集团（02535.HK)、乐思集团(02540.HK)；②美股：罗科仕（LGCL）。风险提示：消费复苏不及预期，政策监管风险，行业竞争加剧风险，公司业务发展不及预期。', 'content': 'Views & investment suggestions for this issue: 1) The short-term catalysis of education and training has weakened and entered a periodic vacuum period, but we recommend throughout the year that from the perspective of various education and training policies at the end of 2023, maintain the tone of \"protecting the legal and cracking down on the illegal\"; Judging from the recent quarterly reports released by New Oriental and TAL, the prosperity has definitely continued. We believe that education and training is a rare marginal upward track in the next two years and deserves attention. In addition to continuing to recommend New Oriental, recommending paying attention to TAL Future and Xueda Education, we also recommend paying attention to Gaotu, which is undergoing positive changes. 2) Pay attention to the valuation restoration of leading Internet companies with repurchases and major shareholder increases. Referring to the above-expected performance of the latest financial report of OTA leader Ctrip, we believe that the value of Chinese Internet companies needs to be revalued. 3) Recommend Internet brokerage platforms, and it is recommended to pay attention to Futu Holdings and Tiger Brokers. Consumption & Education, 1) Consumption: a) Ctrip, as the leader of OTAs, has stable domestic business, outbound business recovery is better than the industry, and international business is expected to bring growth, so we continue to recommend. b) Q1 is still in the off-season for coffee, and the opening of Luckin Expressway stores has put pressure on short-term performance; however, we believe that the industry structure has been optimized, and Luckin’s leading position is expected to be further consolidated. Recently, the discounts have weakened and prices have gradually stabilized. We are paying attention to the impact of the approaching peak season. Cup volume rebound situation. c) Competition in the tea beverage industry is becoming increasingly fierce. Naixue and Lele Tea have updated their franchise policies to lower the entry threshold. Shanghai Auntie has released a new brand to enter the light milk tea and affordable markets. 2) K12 education and training: After three years of \"double reduction\", industry policies have become clearer and legalized. The Ministry of Education issued the \"Off-campus Training Management Regulations (Draft for Comments)\", which significantly benefits the development of the industry. In the context of imbalance between supply and demand, the supply carrying advantages of leading companies have become more significant, and indicators such as revenue, outlets, and deferred income have grown rapidly. Continue to focus on recommending New Oriental, and actively pay attention to TAL, Xueda Education, Gaotu, Sile Education, and Excellence Education Group. Technology Internet, 1) E-commerce retail: JD.com released its fourth quarter and full-year financial report for 2023. Net revenue for 2023 was 1.0847 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; adjusted net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 35.2 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to e-commerce giants Alibaba and Pinduoduo. 2) Long and short videos: The core logic is to increase the number of members driven by the improvement of long video ARM and the continuous launch of high-quality content. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading iQiyi. Short video: a) E-commerce business has a high growth rate, and general shelves have created new growth; b) Advertising continues to be repaired, and internal circulation advertising has a high growth rate; c) New business formats such as local life are expected to open up new growth space. Profit side: Some short and medium video companies are beginning to approach the time point of achieving their profit targets. In the future, they will focus on the profit leverage brought by revenue growth to drive profit release. It is recommended to pay attention to Kuaishou and Bilibili. 3) Aftermarket: The latest report from market research organization Gartner predicts that the average production cost of pure electric vehicles in 2027 will be lower than that of internal combustion engine vehicles of the same level, but the average maintenance cost will increase by 30%. It is recommended to pay attention to Tuhu-W. First introduction to new stocks: 1) Prospectus submitted/updated/publicly disclosed this week: ① Hong Kong stocks: 4 companies, Carote Ltd, Xiyue Aircraft Co., Ltd., Wuhan Organic Holdings Co., Ltd., Quzhi Group; ② US stocks: Rongye Food (WYHG) ), Tai\\'an Longtai (LUD). 2) Received filing notices this week: ① Hong Kong stocks: 4 companies, Kangfeng Biotechnology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., Ningbo Jianshi Technology Co., Ltd., China Innovation Aviation Technology Group Co., Ltd., Xiamen Yanzhiwu Bird\\'s Nest Industry Co., Ltd. ②US stocks: Star Fashion Culture Holdings Limited. 3) Successfully listed: ① Hong Kong stocks: Hongji Group (02535.HK), Lexi Group (02540.HK); ② US stocks: LGCL. Risk warning: consumption recovery is less than expected, policy and regulatory risks, industry competition intensifies, and the company\\'s business development is less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('dd4e41db-8f33-5fde-9fa1-d93cc4b11ef4'), 'sentimentScore': -0.008748933672904968, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'REK2K0N7R88R80SMUCQLJS7AN3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:01 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'REK2K0N7R88R80SMUCQLJS7AN3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8773cfc6-9c13-5ed3-8a91-200cfbead153'), 'title': 'Financial High Frequency Data Weekly Report: How quickly is the rental housing loan support program advancing?', 'author': 'Zhang Jun, Xu Dongshi, Zhan Lu', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2Uo/mRia2PCMStCDyBaQNa1M=', 'researcher': '章俊,许冬石,詹璐', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000185520', '11000208436'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2Uo/mRia2PCMStCDyBaQNa1M=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626201807_1.pdf?1710149481000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626201807_1.pdf?1710149481000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Financial High Frequency Data Weekly Report: How quickly is the rental housing loan support program advancing?', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,许冬石,詹璐', 'originalContent': '核心观点：我们在前期报告《房地产长效机制：集体住房新模式》中对于今年1月中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局发布《关于金融支持住房租赁市场发展的意见》可能带来的影响和意义做了分析。本篇我们继续跟踪租赁住房贷款支持计划的推进情况。租赁住房贷款支持计划正在加速落地。租赁住房贷款支持计划共有8个试点城市，2023年以来4个城市已落地，贷款金额总计约40.86亿元（图1）。2024年1月证券时报报道农业银行积极推进人民银行租赁住房贷款支持计划落地，目前已与天津、济南、郑州、青岛4个城市的13个租赁住房项目达成融资意向。农行天津分行支持批量购买位于河西区、和��区、东丽区、南开区6个新建小区的1170套租赁住房。同时今年2月重庆市租赁住房贷款支持计划试点暨住房租赁基金首批收购项目签约仪式举行。涉及7个项目，合计4207套房源。消化房地产库存。目前试点的8个城市都面临一定的房地产库存压力。以济南为例，截至2023年10月，商品房屋待售面积约420万平方米，同比增长75%，库存在2023年快速上行。租赁住房贷款支持计划的推进对盘活存量住房，加速房地产去库存，防范化解房地产风险有积极意义。我们粗略估算，本轮已落地的租赁住房贷款支持计划在青岛、天津、重庆所涉及的房源面积，分别相当于所在城市2023年全年销售面积的1%、0.73%和1.3%。我们在前期报告《房地产长效机制：集体住房新模式》中测算，每1000亿规模的住房租赁团体购房贷款可以带动约1250万平方米的库存去化，约占全国住宅待售面积的4%。解决“新市民、青年人”住房稳就业。金融支持住房租赁市场发展的政策意图是解决大城市“新市民、青年人等群体住房问题”。济南此次购置存量房范围选定为主城区，靠近主要商圈、办公区及地铁站。重庆首批收购的7个项目，集中在轨道交通站点和商业商务区、产业园区、校区、院（医院）区等“一点四区”人口聚集区，以70平方米以下小户型为主。本轮租赁住房的房源选择体现出解决新市民、青年人等群体住房问题的政策意图。本周市场观察（3月4日-3月8日）：公开市场操作：跨月后本周净回笼11140亿元。政府债券发行提速，货币市场利率快速上行，流动性趋于紧张：SHIBOR007和DR007分别收于1.8480%（+4BP）、1.8628%（+4BP）。GC007收于2.005%（-4BP）。政府债券发行提速，本周国债和地方政府债净融资额分别为800亿和356亿。银行间质押式回购日成交量小幅上升：从上周的约6.4万亿上升至约6.3万亿。国债收益率曲线走平，期限利差收窄：30年中债国债收益率向下突破2.5，收于2.49%（-9BP）；10年期向下突破2.4，收于2.37%（-3BP）；1年期收于1.78%（+1BP），同业存单发行利率小幅波动：1年期国有银行同业存单发行利率回落至2.21%（-2BP）；股份制银行收于2.24%，持平上周。美元指数快速回落至102.74，非美货币升值，人民币小幅升值0.09%：人民币即期汇率收于7.1918（-67pips），日元+2.07%、韩元+0.89%、欧元+0.91%、加元+0.56%、澳元+1.78%、英镑+1.55%。', 'content': 'Core point of view: In our previous report \"Long-term Mechanism for Real Estate: New Model for Collective Housing\", we discussed the possible impact and impact of the \"Opinions on Financial Support for the Development of the Housing Leasing Market\" issued by the People\\'s Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision in January this year. The meaning was analyzed. In this article, we continue to track the progress of the rental housing loan support program. The rental housing loan support program is accelerating. There are 8 pilot cities for the rental housing loan support program, and 4 cities have been implemented since 2023, with a total loan amount of approximately 4.086 billion yuan (Figure 1). In January 2024, the Securities Times reported that the Agricultural Bank of China was actively promoting the implementation of the People\\'s Bank of China\\'s rental housing loan support plan and has currently reached financing intentions with 13 rental housing projects in four cities: Tianjin, Jinan, Zhengzhou, and Qingdao. Agricultural Bank of China Tianjin Branch supports the bulk purchase of 1,170 rental housing units in six newly built communities in Hexi District, Heping District, Dongli District and Nankai District. At the same time, in February this year, the signing ceremony of the Chongqing Rental Housing Loan Support Plan Pilot and the first batch of housing rental fund acquisition projects was held. Involving 7 projects, totaling 4,207 units. Digest real estate inventory. The eight pilot cities are currently facing certain real estate inventory pressures. Taking Jinan as an example, as of October 2023, the area of \\u200b\\u200bcommercial housing for sale is approximately 4.2 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 75%, and inventory will rise rapidly in 2023. The advancement of the rental housing loan support plan is of positive significance for revitalizing existing housing stock, accelerating real estate destocking, and preventing and defusing real estate risks. We roughly estimate that the housing area involved in this round of rental housing loan support programs in Qingdao, Tianjin, and Chongqing is equivalent to 1%, 0.73%, and 1.3% of the city\\'s annual sales area in 2023 respectively. In our previous report, \"Long-term Mechanism for Real Estate: A New Model for Collective Housing,\" we calculated that each RMB 100 billion of group home purchase loans for housing rentals can drive the elimination of approximately 12.5 million square meters of inventory, accounting for approximately 4% of the national residential area for sale. . Solve the problem of housing and stabilizing employment for “new citizens and young people”. The policy intention of financial support for the development of the housing rental market is to solve the \"housing problems of new citizens, young people and other groups\" in large cities. The scope of Jinan\\'s purchase of existing housing is selected as the main urban area, close to major business districts, office areas and subway stations. The first batch of 7 projects acquired in Chongqing are concentrated in \"1.4 District\" population gathering areas such as rail transit stations and commercial business districts, industrial parks, campuses, hospital (hospital) areas, etc., and are mainly small units of less than 70 square meters. The selection of this round of rental housing reflects the policy intention to solve the housing problems of new citizens, young people and other groups. Market observation this week (March 4-March 8): Open market operations: A net withdrawal of 1.114 billion yuan this week after a month-long break. Government bond issuance accelerated, money market interest rates rose rapidly, and liquidity became tight: SHIBOR007 and DR007 closed at 1.8480% (+4BP) and 1.8628% (+4BP) respectively. GC007 closed at 2.005% (-4BP). Government bond issuance is accelerating. This week\\'s net financing amounts to treasury bonds and local government bonds were 80 billion and 35.6 billion respectively. The daily trading volume of inter-bank pledged repos increased slightly: from about 6.4 trillion last week to about 6.3 trillion. The treasury bond yield curve flattened and the term spread narrowed: the 30-year China Bond treasury bond yield fell below 2.5 and closed at 2.49% (-9BP); the 10-year government bond yield fell below 2.4 and closed at 2.37% (-3BP) ; 1-year closed at 1.78% (+1BP), and the issuance interest rate of interbank certificates of deposit fluctuated slightly: the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit issuance interest rate of state-owned banks fell back to 2.21% (-2BP); joint-stock banks closed at 2.24%, unchanged from last week. The U.S. dollar index quickly fell back to 102.74, non-U.S. currencies appreciated, and the RMB appreciated slightly by 0.09%: the spot exchange rate of the RMB closed at 7.1918 (-67pips), the Japanese yen +2.07%, the Korean won +0.89%, the euro +0.91%, and the Canadian dollar +0.56 %, Australian dollar +1.78%, British pound +1.55%.', 'authorid': UUID('9691e2af-b977-525d-9856-67ec9bb87ebf'), 'sentimentScore': 0.06903129909187555, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'C4FS2UGNMTQNEM0ONSDK2TDODFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'C4FS2UGNMTQNEM0ONSDK2TDODFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('da2efc55-b04e-5465-af90-2167e45022d9'), 'title': 'February 2024 Inflation Comments: Inflation slightly exceeded expectations', 'author': 'Guo Rui', 'orgName': '山西证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000080', 'orgSName': '山西证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UrOLmodiIILYdxxmp5Pl/c4=', 'researcher': '郭瑞', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000179017'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UrOLmodiIILYdxxmp5Pl/c4=', 'site': 'Shanxi Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '山西证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626201742_1.pdf?1710149668000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626201742_1.pdf?1710149668000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'February 2024 Inflation Comments: Inflation slightly exceeded expectations', 'originalAuthor': '郭瑞', 'originalContent': '2 月 CPI 高于预期， PPI 低于预期。 2 月 CPI 同比 0.7%（前值-0.8%），万得一致预期值为 0.4%。 2 月 CPI 环比 1.0%， 强于 2020-2023 年同期， 基本持平于 2015-2019 同期水平； PPI 同比-2.7%（前值-2.5%）， 低于万得一致预期值-2.5%。 2 月 PPI 环比-0.2%， 无论疫情前后都弱于季节性。服务项和食品项是拉动 CPI 的主因， 也要关注到房租以及家庭服务分项弱于季节性。 2 月核心 CPI、 服务 CPI 环比分别上涨 0.5%、 1.0%， 均高于 2019年以来的同期值， 同比分别上涨 1.2%（前值 0.4%）、 1.9%（前值 0.5%）。 春节期间出行和文娱消费需求大幅增加， 飞机票、 交通工具租赁费、 旅游、 电影及演出票价格涨幅在 12.5%—23.0%之间， 合计影响 CPI 上涨约 0.30 个百分点。 也要关注到， 2 月房租、 家庭服务分项环比分别为持平和-1.7%， 均弱于季节性， 或预示服务项的���续回暖尚待观察。 食品价格环比上涨 3.3%， 为2021 年以来的同期最高值。 春节期间消费需求增加， 加之部分地区雨雪天气影响供给， 鲜菜、 猪肉、 水产品和鲜果价格分别上涨 12.7%、 7.2%、 6.2%和4.3%， 合计影响 CPI 上涨约 0.58 个百分点。 受国际油价上行影响， 国内汽油价格由上月下降 1.0%转为上涨 2.0%， 影响 CPI 上涨约 0.07 个百分点。受春节假日等因素影响， 工业生产处于传统淡季， PPI 同比降幅略有扩大。其中， 生产资料表现弱于生活资料， 生产资料价格环比-0.3%（前值-0.2%）；生活资料价格环比-0.1%（前值-0.2%）。 生产资料中， 原材料和加工业表现较差。 受春节假日房地产、 基建项目停工等因素影响， 钢材、 水泥等行业需求减少， 黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、 水泥制造价格分别下降 0.4%、 1.4%。另外， 锂离子电池制造、 新能源车整车制造、 计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业价格分别下降 0.5%、 0.4%、 0.1%。 采矿业同比跌幅收窄至-5.5%（前值-6.0%）。 国际原油价格上行， 带动国内石油相关行业价格上涨， 其中石油和天然气开采业价格上涨 2.5%， 石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业价格上涨 0.2%。市场启示： 通胀中枢略上行， 债市或窄幅震荡。 今年 2 月是我国受疫情影响后正常化的第二个春节， 消费活动进一步常态化， CPI 回升仍有积压需求释放的因素， 持续性有待观察。 PPI 降幅扩大和 1-2 月 PMI 生产快于需求的表现一致。 我国两会确定了较为积极的经济增长和通胀目标， 宏观政策同时注重逆周期和跨周期， 二季度财政政策效应进一步显现， 同时价格基数相对有利， PPI 预计中枢略上行， CPI 预计仍有反复。 我们认为通胀中枢略回升不改货币政策短期谨慎中期偏松预期， 债市或窄幅震荡。风险提示： 国内稳增长政策力度超预期； 地缘政治风险加剧。', 'content': \"February CPI was higher than expected and PPI was lower than expected. February CPI was 0.7% year-on-year (previously -0.8%), while the Wind consensus was 0.4%. The CPI in February was 1.0% month-on-month, stronger than the same period in 2020-2023, and basically the same as the same period in 2015-2019; the PPI was -2.7% year-on-year (previous value -2.5%), lower than Wind's consensus expectation of -2.5%. The PPI in February was -0.2% month-on-month, which was weaker than the seasonality before and after the epidemic. Service items and food items are the main factors driving CPI. It should also be noted that rent and household service items are weaker than seasonal. In February, core CPI and service CPI increased by 0.5% and 1.0% month-on-month respectively, both higher than the same period since 2019. They increased by 1.2% (previous value: 0.4%) and 1.9% (previous value: 0.5%) respectively. During the Spring Festival, the demand for travel and entertainment consumption increased significantly. The prices of air tickets, transportation rental fees, travel, movie and performance tickets increased between 12.5% \\u200b\\u200band 23.0%, which together affected the CPI increase by about 0.30 percentage points. It should also be noted that the monthly rent and household services sub-items in February were flat and -1.7% respectively, both weaker than seasonal. It remains to be seen whether it may indicate a continued recovery in services. Food prices rose 3.3% month-on-month, the highest level in the same period since 2021. During the Spring Festival, consumer demand increased, and rain and snow weather affected supply in some areas. The prices of fresh vegetables, pork, aquatic products, and fresh fruits increased by 12.7%, 7.2%, 6.2%, and 4.3% respectively, which collectively affected the CPI increase by approximately 0.58 percentage points. Affected by the rise in international oil prices, domestic gasoline prices increased by 2.0% from a decrease of 1.0% in the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by approximately 0.07 percentage points. Affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, industrial production is in the traditional off-season, and the year-on-year decline in PPI has slightly expanded. Among them, the performance of means of production was weaker than that of means of living, with the price of means of production -0.3% month-on-month (previous value -0.2%); the price of means of living -0.1% month-on-month (previous value -0.2%). Among the means of production, the raw materials and processing industries performed poorly. Affected by factors such as the suspension of real estate and infrastructure projects during the Spring Festival holiday, demand in industries such as steel and cement decreased. The prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries and cement manufacturing fell by 0.4% and 1.4% respectively. In addition, prices for lithium-ion battery manufacturing, new energy vehicle manufacturing, computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing fell by 0.5%, 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. The year-on-year decline in the mining industry narrowed to -5.5% (previous value -6.0%). The rise in international crude oil prices has driven up prices in domestic petroleum-related industries, with prices in the oil and natural gas mining industry rising by 2.5% and prices in the petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries rising by 0.2%. Market Enlightenment: The center of inflation is slightly upward, and the bond market may fluctuate within a narrow range. February this year is the second Spring Festival that normalized in my country after being affected by the epidemic. Consumption activities have further normalized. The rebound in CPI still has factors that can release pent-up demand. The sustainability remains to be seen. The wider decline in PPI is consistent with PMI production outpacing demand in January and February. my country's Two Sessions set relatively aggressive economic growth and inflation targets. Macroeconomic policies focus on both counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical policies. The effects of fiscal policy will further emerge in the second quarter. At the same time, the price base is relatively favorable. PPI is expected to center slightly upward, while CPI is expected to remain volatile. We believe that the slight rebound in inflation will not change the expectation that monetary policy will be cautious in the short term and easing in the medium term, and the bond market may fluctuate within a narrow range. Risk warning: Domestic policies to stabilize growth are stronger than expected; geopolitical risks are intensifying.\", 'authorid': UUID('e521f4b9-7006-505f-b080-07c6b67b7ccf'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9414705485105515, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '6UFN8GHF0IGHEE0EPJNQTCA037VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:07 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '6UFN8GHF0IGHEE0EPJNQTCA037VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('24089c31-309b-5136-887a-1eaf2686c174'), 'title': 'Commentary on February inflation data: Moderate inflation is expected to start', 'author': 'Yuanno', 'orgName': '中邮证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80036717', 'orgSName': '中邮证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UmuNMD8NOrvE7FTpVeH8hng=', 'researcher': '袁野', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000266839'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UmuNMD8NOrvE7FTpVeH8hng=', 'site': 'China Post Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中邮证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626201716_1.pdf?1710149784000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626201716_1.pdf?1710149784000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on February inflation data: Moderate inflation is expected to start', 'originalAuthor': '袁野', 'originalContent': '核心观点CPI超预期回升，春节效应明显；PPI超预期回落，短期支撑仍强。3月CPI同比有望继续温和增长，涨幅或小幅回落；PPI同比或仍处于负增长区间，跌幅或有所收窄。鉴于2月具有春节效应，新涨价因素贡献相对较高，3月新涨价因素或有所回落，但翘尾因素的拖累作用亦逐步减弱，叠加经济稳健修复，1-2月专项债提前储备发行，3月有望迎来开工季，预计3月CPI同比有望仍维持正增长，但涨幅或小幅回落。此外，当前美国经济存在技术性衰退风险，美联储降息预期进一步加强，会支撑美元计价的商品价格，叠加欧佩克减产计划延长至第二季度末，共同支撑油价上涨，对我国工业品价格形成输入性影响。以上因素对中期工业品价格有支撑，且短期拖累减弱。考虑3月翘尾因素基本持平2月，3月PPI同比增速或仍将处于负增长区间，但跌幅或有所收窄。预计3月CPI同比0.2%左右，PPI同比-2.3%左右。基于上中下游利润传导视角，结合《政府工作报告》内容，此阶段可适度关注下游消费、传统设备更新改造的下游制造行业、以及以氢能、数字经济等为代表的创新投资方向。风险提示：美国房地产市场超预期下行；美国消费疲软；海外地缘政治冲突加剧。', 'content': 'The core view is that CPI has rebounded beyond expectations, and the Spring Festival effect is obvious; PPI has fallen beyond expectations, and short-term support is still strong. CPI in March is expected to continue to grow moderately year-on-year, and the increase may fall slightly; PPI may still be in a negative growth range year-on-year, and the decline may narrow. In view of the Spring Festival effect in February, the contribution of new price increase factors is relatively high. In March, the new price increase factors may have declined, but the dragging effect of tailing factors has also gradually weakened. Superimposed on the steady recovery of the economy, special bonds have advanced in January and February. Reserve issuance is expected to usher in the construction season in March. It is expected that the CPI in March is expected to maintain positive year-on-year growth, but the increase may fall slightly. In addition, the current risk of a technical recession in the U.S. economy, and further strengthening of expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, will support U.S. dollar-denominated commodity prices. Together with the extension of OPEC\\'s production reduction plan to the end of the second quarter, they will jointly support the rise in oil prices and have an imported impact on the prices of my country\\'s industrial products. The above factors will support the price of industrial products in the medium term, and the short-term drag will weaken. Taking into account the tail-off factors in March, which is basically the same as in February, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in March may still be in the negative growth range, but the decline may narrow. The CPI in March is expected to be around 0.2% year-on-year, and the PPI is expected to be around -2.3% year-on-year. Based on the perspective of upstream, midstream and downstream profit transmission, combined with the content of the \"Government Work Report\", this stage can appropriately focus on downstream consumption, the downstream manufacturing industry of traditional equipment renewal and transformation, and innovative investment directions represented by hydrogen energy, digital economy, etc. Risk warning: The U.S. real estate market has declined more than expected; U.S. consumption has weakened; overseas geopolitical conflicts have intensified.', 'authorid': UUID('41b3960d-9709-5ae8-b077-aad17d16ee4a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6232259720563889, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '7URUO1J7Q904TM3G9O6FTODO9BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:10 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '7URUO1J7Q904TM3G9O6FTODO9BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8bad5408-d48c-5aba-8b65-bf0d4740844e'), 'title': 'Paying attention to the two \"expected differences\" in global liquidity, my country\\'s exports need to improve the \"new\" and consolidate the \"old\"', 'author': 'Yuanno', 'orgName': '中邮证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80036717', 'orgSName': '中邮证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-11', 'encodeUrl': 'MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2Un+US7kyKyaLz/omekxl3qY=', 'researcher': '袁野', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000266839'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2Un+US7kyKyaLz/omekxl3qY=', 'site': 'China Post Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中邮证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626201709_1.pdf?1710150605000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626201709_1.pdf?1710150605000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Paying attention to the two \"expected differences\" in global liquidity, my country\\'s exports need to improve the \"new\" and consolidate the \"old\"', 'originalAuthor': '袁野', 'originalContent': '核心观点（1）美国就业市场相对紧张问题有所缓解，失业率小幅上升，工资增速边际回落，工资通胀螺旋压力有所缓解，这为美联储降息提供了一种相对积极的信号，市场对6月降息定价相对充分。关于美联储降息路径，仍存在两个预期差：一是美联储降息延后至三季度，刺激美国股市和经济基本面，支持美国总统选举；二是美联储3月或5月意外提前降息，或指向美国经济风险有所上升，需要谨慎应对，谨防2007年风险冲击。（1）我国1-2月进出口超预期回升，可能存在以下五点原因：一是低基数影响。2023年1-2月外部冲击仍在，基数较低。二是地缘冲突导致能源价格上升，导致欧洲本土工业品价格相对劣势，我国出口产品存在价格竞争优势。三是基于欧盟对我国电动汽车反倾销调查的分歧，加大短期进口。四是美联储降息预期下，美国房价再次回升，拉动地产后周期产品出口增速。向后看，目前地缘政治冲突导致的我国出口价格优势仍在，同时欧盟对中国电动汽车补贴倾销调查结束前（10月前），欧洲有望维持突击进口汽车的动力，美国房地产韧性较强，将会对我国出口形成一定支撑。但中期看，美、欧经济技术性衰退，或对我国中国出口产生一定制约，考虑2023年3月高基数影响，3月出口增速或有压力。（2）本周宏观环境整体呈现边际向���态势。在政策环境方面，内外部均呈现正面。市场对美联储6月降息定价较为充分，全球货币环境表现正面；我国宏观调控政策定调积极，年内超预期发行1万亿超长期国债，推动设备更新改造和以旧换新等；国内流动性合理充裕，央行提示存在降准空间。在非政策环境方面，外部环境承压，内部环境正面。特朗普当选美国总统预期走高，可能会加剧中美贸易摩擦，美国经济存在短期技术性衰退，欧洲经济景气边际放缓。内部环境方面，我国房地产市场有所回暖，出口超预期。风险提示：中美贸易摩擦超预期加剧；美国商业银行危机超预期演变；海外地缘政治冲突加剧。', 'content': \"Core Views (1) The relative tension in the U.S. job market has eased, the unemployment rate has increased slightly, wage growth has declined marginally, and the spiral pressure on wage inflation has eased. This has provided a relatively positive signal for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The market is optimistic about 6 The monthly interest rate cut is relatively well priced. Regarding the path of the Fed's interest rate cut, there are still two expectations gaps: first, the Fed's interest rate cut is postponed to the third quarter, stimulating the U.S. stock market and economic fundamentals, and supporting the U.S. presidential election; second, the Fed unexpectedly cuts interest rates early in March or May, which may point to the U.S. Economic risks have increased, and we need to deal with them cautiously and beware of risk shocks in 2007. (1) my country’s import and export rebounded more than expected from January to February. There may be five reasons: First, the impact of low base. External shocks will still be felt from January to February 2023, with a low base. Second, geopolitical conflicts have led to rising energy prices, resulting in a relative disadvantage in the price of European domestic industrial products. my country's export products have a price competitive advantage. The third is to increase short-term imports based on the EU's differences in the anti-dumping investigation of my country's electric vehicles. Fourth, in anticipation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, U.S. housing prices have rebounded again, boosting the export growth of post-cyclical real estate products. Looking backward, my country's export price advantage caused by the current geopolitical conflict is still there. At the same time, before the end of the EU's subsidy dumping investigation of Chinese electric vehicles (before October), Europe is expected to maintain the motivation to import cars suddenly. The US real estate is relatively resilient and will It will provide certain support to my country’s exports. However, in the medium term, the technical recession of the U.S. and European economies may impose certain constraints on my country's exports. Considering the impact of the high base in March 2023, export growth in March may be under pressure. (2) The overall macro environment this week showed a marginal improvement. In terms of policy environment, both internal and external aspects are positive. The market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in June, and the global monetary environment has performed positively; my country's macroeconomic control policy has been proactive, with the issuance of 1 trillion ultra-long-term treasury bonds exceeding expectations during the year, and promotion of equipment renovation and trade-in; domestic liquidity is reasonably abundant, and the central bank It indicates that there is room for lowering the standard. In terms of non-policy environment, the external environment is under pressure and the internal environment is positive. The election of Trump as U.S. President is expected to increase, which may intensify the Sino-U.S. trade friction. The U.S. economy will experience a short-term technical recession and the European economic boom will slow down marginally. In terms of internal environment, my country's real estate market has picked up, and exports have exceeded expectations. Risk warning: Sino-US trade friction has intensified beyond expectations; the U.S. commercial bank crisis has evolved beyond expectations; overseas geopolitical conflicts have intensified.\", 'authorid': UUID('41b3960d-9709-5ae8-b077-aad17d16ee4a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.08221659064292908, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '085IC4JG7UJQ2G1RAC1IH6VS1VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:12 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '085IC4JG7UJQ2G1RAC1IH6VS1VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d58cd348-6cdc-57c3-89bf-8a71aa8a43fb'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly: Looking at economic and financial policies from the voices of the two sessions', 'author': 'Hu Shaohua, Liu Sijia', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UgMgJKqqjT74v+vyHLOJmFQ=', 'researcher': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249934', '11000257478'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UgMgJKqqjT74v+vyHLOJmFQ=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626202565_1.pdf?1710152516000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626202565_1.pdf?1710152516000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly: Looking at economic and financial policies from the voices of the two sessions', 'originalAuthor': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'originalContent': '投资要点核心观点：两会期间，多位部长出席主题记者会，释放了一些增量信息，资本市场方面，从严监管信号强烈，上市公司质量有望根本性提升，长期资金或更大力度入市，市场有望迎来β机会。经济政策上，对超长期国债的使用方向初步细化，对出口形势进行了展望，地产防风险有望继续稳步推进。货币上，降准仍有空间，结构性货币政策工具有望迎来扩展；财政上适度加力，提质增效。国际关系方面，旧金山会晤后中美关系取得一些进展，但双边关系仍待改善。“一带一路”建设十年来成果丰硕，中亚、欧洲、东南亚与中国贸易增长居前。总体来看，两会期间定调积极，有利因素正逐步累积。资本市场监管突出“强、严”，上市公司质量有望根本性提升。证监会主席吴清指出，高质量的上市公司是资本市场内在稳定性的基石，要从严把入口、加强上市后监管、畅通出口三方面发力提高上市公司质量。第一，企业IPO上市各个环节要严之又严，坚持申报即担责。第二，企业上市后要防假打假、规范减持、推动分红。第三，设置更严格的强制退市标准，拓宽多元退出渠道。今年以来（截至2月21日），在45单IPO终止审核当中，有43家为主动撤单。未来IPO阶段性收紧或将延续，IPO数量和融资规模可能下降，同时上市公司质量有望根本提升，A股市场生态或逐步优化。经济政策：超长期特别国债“既利当前，又惠长远”。国家发改委主任郑栅洁表示，发行使用超长期特别国债是重大政策举措，既可以拉动当前的投资和消费，又能打下长期高质量发展的基础。从主要投向看，将重点支持科技创新、城乡融合发展、区域协调发展、粮食能源安全、人口高质量发展等领域建设，相比政府工作报告更加细化了投向。超长期特别国债是今年以及今后几年的财政亮点，在稳定经济增长的同时，助力经济结构的调整。出口趋势向好。商务部部长王文涛表示，去年3月份的基数比较高，可能会有一些回落。总体这个趋势在向上走，“新三样”出口可能是稳步发展的态势。我们认为，2024年开年出口同比增速延续上升趋势，或受去年低基数以及外需回暖的影响，机电产品出口持续保持高位，船舶出口亮眼，凸显产业链优势。美国库存水平位于低位，外需具备韧性，净出口若全年有较好表现，或将在一定程度上对冲地产投资下行的压力。城市更新，地产防风险稳步推进。住建部部长倪虹表示，从我国城镇化发展进程看，从全国城镇住房存量的更新改造需求看，房地产还是有很大的潜力和空间。今年计划再改造5万个老旧小区，建设一批完整的社区；继续加大老旧管网的改造力度，今年再改造10万公里以上。关于推动构建房地产发展新模式，有力有序推进现房销售。防风险方面，已上报的“白名单”项目中82.8%是民营企业和混合所有制企业的项目，对严重资不抵债、失去经营能力的房企，要按照法治化、市场化的原则，该破产的破产，该重组的重组。货币及财政政策。货币政策上降准有空间，结构性工具有望扩展。央行行长潘功胜表示，目前我国银行业存款准备金率平均在7%，后续仍然有降准空间。后续专项债以及1万亿超长期特别国债的发行节奏，以及呵护银行净息差的角度，年内大概率仍有降准可能。设立科技创新和技术改造再贷款，支持高端制造业和数字经济的发展。继续实施支持碳减排的再贷款，进一步扩大支持领域，并增加规模。新设再贷款工具体现货币政策层面对新质生产力以及大规模设备更新发展方向上的支持力度。碳减排支持工具目前仍在存续状态，额度为8000亿元，截至2023年12月末的余额为5410亿元，预计结构性货币政策工具仍将发挥精准作用，约���传统产能过剩行业的信贷投放，加大对绿色低碳行业的支持力度，推动实现双碳目标。财政政策适度加力，提质增效。适度加力，体现在：财政支出强度总体扩大；政府债券规模明显增加；继续实施结构性减税降费政策。广义财政支出力度相对积极，中央具备加杠杆空间。提质增效，体现在：优化财政管理，加强政策协同，提升财政政策质效。当前社会预期仍然不强，强化政策统筹的重要性进一步凸显。加强宏观政策取向一致性，有助于促进政策形成组合效应，提升宏观调控的科学性和有效性，巩固经济回升基础。解放军和武警部队代表团新闻发言人吴谦接受媒体采访时表示，2024年全国一般公共预算安排国防支出1.69万亿元，比上年执行数增长7.2%，增速与前值持平。中美关系仍待改善，“一带一路”成果丰硕。3月7日，外交部长王毅就中国外交政策和对外关系答记者问。中美关系方面，王毅表示，旧金山会晤以来，中美关系改善取得一些进展。但不得不指出的是，美方的对华错误认知仍在延续，所做的承诺并没有真正兑现。王毅表示，“一带一路”成为当今世界最受欢迎的国际公共产品和最大规模的国际合作平台。2015年以来的近10年，一带一路贸易额指数累计增长超1倍，其中，蒙俄、中亚、欧洲、东南亚与中国贸易增长居前。“一带一路”建设有助于发挥中国在基建、制造业等领域的优势产能，推动中国出口多元化，提升中国在全球产业链中的辐射带动能力。风险提示：地缘政治风险；政策落地不及预期的风险；海外金融事件风险。', 'content': '投资要点核心观点：两会期间，多位部长出席主题记者会，释放了一些增量信息，资本市场方面，从严监管信号强烈，上市公司质量有望根本性提升，长期资金或更大力度入市，市场有望迎来β机会。经济政策上，对超长期国债的使用方向初步细化，对出口形势进行了展望，地产防风险有望继续稳步推进。货币上，降准仍有空间，结构性货币政策工具有望迎来扩展；财政上适度加力，提质增效。国际关系方面，旧金山会晤后中美关系取得一些进展，但双边关系仍待改善。“一带一路”建设十年来成果丰硕，中亚、欧洲、东南亚与中国贸易增长居前。总体来看，两会期间定调积极，有利因素正逐步累积。资本市场监管突出“强、严”，上市公司质量有望根本性提升。证监会主席吴清指出，高质量的上市公司是资本市场内在稳定性的基石，要从严把入口、加强上市后监管、畅通出口三方面发力提高上市公司质量。第一，企业IPO上市各个环节要严之又严，坚持申报即担责。第二，企业上市后要防假打假、规范减持、推动分红。第三，设置更严格的强制退市标准，拓宽多元退出渠道。今年以来（截至2月21日），在45单IPO终止审核当中，有43家为主动撤单。未来IPO阶段性收紧或将延续，IPO数量和融资规模可能下降，同时上市公司质量有望根本提升，A股市场生态或逐步优化。经济政策：超长期特别国债“既利当前，又惠长远”。国家发改委主任郑栅洁表示，发行使用超长期特别国债是重大政策举措，既可以拉动当前的投资和消费，又能打下长期高质量发展的基础。从主要投向看，将重点支持科技创新、城乡融合发展、区域协调发展、粮食能源安全、人口高质量发展等领域建设，相比政府工作报告更加细化了投向。超长期特别国债是今年以及今后几年的财政亮点，在稳定经济增长的同时，助力经济结构的调整。出口趋势向好。商务部部长王文涛表示，去年3月份的基数比较高，可能会有一些回落。总体这个趋势在向上走，“新三样”出口可能是稳步发展的态势。我们认为，2024年开年出口同比增速延续上升趋势，或受去年低基数以及外需回暖的影响，机电产品出口持续保持高位，船舶出口亮眼，凸显产业链优势。美国库存水平位于低位，外需具备韧性，净出口若全年有较好表现，或将在一定程度上对冲地产投资下行的压力。城市更新，地产防风险稳步推进。住建部部长倪虹表示，从我国城镇化发展进程看，从全国城镇住房存量的更新改造需求看，房地产还是有很大的潜力和空间。今年计划再改造5万个老旧小区，建设一批完整的社区；继续加大老旧管网的改造力度，今年再改造10万公里以上。关于推动构建房地产发展新模式，有力有序推进现房销售。防风险方面，已上报的“白名单”项目中82.8%是民营企业和混合所有制企业的项目，对严重资不抵债、失去经营能力的房企，要按照法���化、市场化的原则，该破产的破产，该重组的重组。货币及财政政策。货币政策上降准有空间，结构性工具有望扩展。央行行长潘功胜表示，目前我国银行业存款准备金率平均在7%，后续仍然有降准空间。后续专项债以及1万亿超长期特别国债的发行节奏，以及呵护银行净息差的角度，年内大概率仍有降准可能。设立科技创新和技术改造再贷款，支持高端制造业和数字经济的发展。继续实施支持碳减排的再贷款，进一步扩大支持领域，并增加规模。新设再贷款工具体现货币政策层面对新质生产力以及大规模设备更新发展方向上的支持力度。碳减排支持工具目前仍在存续状态，额度为8000亿元，截至2023年12月末的余额为5410亿元，预计结构性货币政策工具仍将发挥精准作用，约束传统产能过剩行业的信贷投放，加大对绿色低碳行业的支持力度，推动实现双碳目标。财政政策适度加力，提质增效。适度加力，体现在：财政支出强度总体扩大；政府债券规模明显增加；继续实施结构性减税降费政策。广义财政支出力度相对积极，中央具备加杠杆空间。提质增效，体现在：优化财政管理，加强政策协同，提升财政政策质效。当前社会预期仍然不强，强化政策统筹的重要性进一步凸显。加强宏观政策取向一致性，有助于促进政策形成组合效应，提升宏观调控的科学性和有效性，巩固经济回升基础。解放军和武警部队代表团新闻发言人吴谦接受媒体采访时表示，2024年全国一般公共预算安排国防支出1.69万亿元，比上年执行数增长7.2%，增速与前值持平。中美关系仍待改善，“一带一路”成果丰硕。3月7日，外交部长王毅就中国外交政策和对外关系答记者问。中美关系方面，王毅表示，旧金山会晤以来，中美关系改善取得一些进展。但不得不指出的是，美方的对华错误认知仍在延续，所做的承诺并没有真正兑现。王毅表示，“一带一路”成为当今世界最受欢迎的国际公共产品和最大规模的国际合作平台。2015年以来的近10年，一带一路贸易额指数累计增长超1倍，其中，蒙俄、中亚、欧洲、东南亚与中国贸易增长居前。“一带一路”建设有助于发挥中国在基建、制造业等领域的优势产能，推动中国出口多元化，提升中国在全球产业链中的辐射带动能力。风险提示：地缘政治风险；政策落地不及预期的风险；海外金融事件风险。', 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Local finance depends on the \"doorway\"', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UlpWhiOQ3RTfb1inYZVsJAw=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UlpWhiOQ3RTfb1inYZVsJAw=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626202535_1.pdf?1710152416000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626202535_1.pdf?1710152416000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: How to survive \"tight days\"? Local finance depends on the \"doorway\"', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '“各级政府过‘紧日子’是长久之计”是财政部部长蓝佛安的最新发言。目前看来，地方政府的“钱袋子”确实比较紧——不仅地方政府本级财政收支的增速已不及疫情前水平，而且地方财政支出增速屡屡大于收入增速。为何比较“紧”？其实是因为地方政府在化债的同时，还面临着土地财政不可持续的问题。除此之外，2024年地方政府还需要加大“稳经济”的力度、加大科技和安全方面的支出。不过，前有资产处置力度的加大、后有超长期特别国债的发行，在一定程度上都起到了为地方财力“保驾护航”的作用。中央逐步加大对地方的支持力度是近年来的趋势，这将在一定程度上有效缓解地方财政压力。地��政府的“钱袋子”为何变紧了？一是房地产市场景气度尚未完全恢复，导致具有“土地依赖症”的地方政府并未完成政府性基金收入目标。根据2023年决算案来看，地方政府的政府性基金收入整体仅完成预算的89.6%。二是土地财政见底产生的“连锁反应”，决定了调入资金的“底气”有多大。通常每一年地方财力的表现，会在一定程度上决定下一年地方财政调入资金的“底气”有多足。由于2022年充当地方财力“主力军”的政府性基金收入远不及预算案预期，导致2023年可调入地方财政的资金规模受限，其中一般公共预算、国有资本经营预算中调入资金及使用结转结余规模均低于预算案预期。中央转移支付、以及资产处置力度的加大，保障了2023年地方的基本财力。地方财政吃紧的同时，其对应的事权却并未减少，地方政府承担着加杠杆“主角”的任务。因此，财政状况相对宽裕的中央政府不断为地方财力“充电”，2023年中央对地方转移支付的总规模也大于预算案。除此之外，地方政府自身也在“东寻西觅”扩张财政收入的方法。2023年地方政府就通过“加大资产处置力度，一次性产权转让收入增加”的方法，有力推高其国有资本经营收入规模，也使国有资本收入决算与预算规模之差创了历史新高。与此同时，地方政府国有资本预算调入一般公共预算的规模也在明显走高，以此支持公共财政往更多领域“加力提效”。不过即便有来自处置资产的“助攻”，总量口径下的地方公共财政收入还是并未达到预算案中所给规模。一次性收入“昙花一现”后，2024年地方财力靠什么？2023年地方政府的资产处置是一次性收入来源，而后续地方财政发力的“动力源”主要来自于超长期特别国债——虽然超长期特别国债主要纳入中央政府性基金预算收入，但鉴于2024年政府性基金预算内中央向地方转移支付的规模直接提升了一个量级（与2020年抗疫特别国债的情况相似），我们认为1万亿元的超长期特别国债大部分资金将由地方使用。与此同时，超长期特别国债也为地方公共财政收入“发电”。超长期特别国债除了能为地方政府性基金收入“保驾护航”，或许也能在一定程度上为地方一般公共预算收入“添砖加瓦”。2024年地方公共财政收入中调入资金达12708亿元，明显超过2023年实际执行规模，背后可能也是来源于超长期特别国债的“助攻”。参考2020年，抗疫特别国债的发行也冲高了地方政府一般公共预算的调入资金规模。不过与2020年不同的是，目前地方政府性基金收支的缺口更大，因此特别国债资金需要更多地“分流”至政府性基金，导致调入一般公共预算的资金规模略小一些。地方公共财政支出可能会往高科技和安全相关领域“进攻”。由于财政预算案中仅给出全国以及中央层级的公共财政支出细项数据，我们尝试着根据这些数据，去大致推算地方层级的公共财政支出在不同领域的资金规模。结果显示，地方财政支出“科技”和“安全”的含量更高了——科技方面，不仅科学技术支出力度加强，与科技发展“一脉相承”的教育支出（人才要素）也在提高；安全方面，地方防灾、应急管理支出的占比变得更高了。除了科技与安全，地方政府还兼顾着“稳经济”的任务，譬如基建中的农林水支出和城乡社区支出都保持较高力度，以及用于社会保障和就业支出的资金规模也有了明显提高。风险提示：政策定力超预期；出口超预期萎缩；信贷投放量不及预期。', 'content': '“Governments at all levels must live a tight life as a long-term solution,” was Finance Minister Lan Foan’s latest statement. At present, it seems that the \"pocket bags\" of local governments are indeed relatively tight - not only is the growth rate of local government fiscal revenue and expenditure no longer as high as before the epidemic, but the growth rate of local fiscal expenditures has repeatedly exceeded the growth rate of revenue. Why is it \"tighter\"? In fact, it is because local governments are also facing the problem of unsustainable land finance while resolving debt. In addition, in 2024, local governments also need to increase efforts to \"stabilize the economy\" and increase spending on technology and security. However, the previous increase in asset disposal and later the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds have played a role in \"protecting\" local financial resources to a certain extent. It has been a trend in recent years for the central government to gradually increase its support for local governments, which will effectively alleviate local financial pressures to a certain extent. Why are local government\\'s \"money bags\" getting tighter? First, the real estate market has not yet fully recovered, causing local governments with \"land dependence\" to fail to meet their government fund revenue targets. According to the 2023 final accounts, the overall government fund revenue of local governments only completed 89.6% of the budget. Second, the \"chain reaction\" caused by the bottoming out of land finance determines the \"confidence\" to transfer funds. Usually, the performance of local financial resources each year will, to a certain extent, determine the “confidence” of local finances to transfer funds in the next year. Since the revenue of government funds, which serve as the \"main force\" of local financial resources in 2022, is far less than expected in the budget, the scale of funds that can be transferred to local finance in 2023 is limited, including the funds transferred and used in the general public budget and state-owned capital operating budget. The scale of carry-forward balances was lower than budget expectations. The increase in central transfer payments and asset disposal has guaranteed the basic financial resources of local governments in 2023. While local finances are tight, their corresponding powers have not been reduced. Local governments are tasked with increasing leverage as the \"protagonist\". Therefore, the central government, which is in a relatively comfortable financial position, continues to \"recharge\" local financial resources, and the total scale of transfer payments from the central government to local governments in 2023 will be larger than the budget. In addition, local governments themselves are also \"looking here and there\" for ways to expand fiscal revenue. In 2023, local governments adopted the method of \"increasing asset disposal and increasing one-time property rights transfer income\" to effectively push up the scale of their state-owned capital operating income, and also made the difference between the final accounts of state-owned capital income and the budget scale reach a record high. At the same time, the amount of local government state-owned capital budgets transferred into general public budgets has also increased significantly to support the \"efficiency improvement\" of public finance in more areas. However, even with the \"assist\" from the disposal of assets, the local public fiscal revenue based on the total caliber still does not reach the scale given in the budget. After the one-time revenue is \"short-lived\", what will local financial resources rely on in 2024? The asset disposal of local governments in 2023 is a one-time source of revenue, and the \"power source\" for subsequent local fiscal efforts mainly comes from ultra-long-term special treasury bonds. Although ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are mainly included in the central government fund budget revenue, in view of the 2024 The scale of transfer payments from the central government to local governments within the 2020 government fund budget has directly increased by one order of magnitude (similar to the 2020 anti-epidemic special treasury bonds). We believe that most of the 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be used by local governments. At the same time, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds also \"generate electricity\" for local public fiscal revenue. In addition to \"protecting\" local government fund revenue, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds may also be able to \"contribute\" to local general public budget revenue to a certain extent. The amount of funds transferred from local public fiscal revenue in 2024 will reach 1.2708 billion yuan, significantly exceeding the actual implementation scale in 2023. This may also be the \"assist\" from ultra-long-term special government bonds. Referring to 2020, the issuance of special anti-epidemic treasury bonds also increased the scale of funds transferred from local governments\\' general public budgets. However, what is different from 2020 is that the current gap in the revenue and expenditure of local government funds is larger, so special government bond funds need to be \"diverted\" more to government funds, resulting in a slightly smaller scale of funds transferred to the general public budget. Local public finance expenditures may \"offensive\" in high-tech and security-related fields. Since the fiscal budget only provides detailed data on public finance expenditures at the national and central levels, we try to use these data to roughly estimate the scale of public finance expenditures at the local level in different fields. The results show that the content of \"technology\" and \"security\" in local fiscal expenditures is higher - in terms of science and technology, not only science and technology expenditures have been strengthened, but education expenditures (talent elements) that are \"in line with the development of science and technology\" have also increased; in terms of security, The proportion of local disaster prevention and emergency management expenditures has become higher. In addition to technology and security, local governments also take into account the task of \"stabilizing the economy.\" For example, expenditures on agriculture, forestry, water, and urban and rural communities in infrastructure construction have remained relatively high, and the scale of funds used for social security and employment expenditures has also increased significantly. Risk warning: Policy strength exceeds expectations; exports shrink more than expected; credit volume is less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8142342306673527, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'VT2OM6SLCTBU9IRQTU91C09MSFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:21 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'VT2OM6SLCTBU9IRQTU91C09MSFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('fce8683d-437b-5831-b113-ccd11c19936e'), 'title': 'Comments on February inflation data: core inflation rebounded reasonably', 'author': 'Xiao Chengzhe, Zhang Peng', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2Uibpd/GqQ5wElXdocgPhIZ0=', 'researcher': '肖成哲,张鹏', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259664', '11000342533'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2Uibpd/GqQ5wElXdocgPhIZ0=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626200839_1.pdf?1710089318000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626200839_1.pdf?1710089318000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February inflation data: core inflation rebounded reasonably', 'originalAuthor': '肖成哲,张鹏', 'originalContent': '通胀数据印证居民消费需求回升，债市需关注对政策进一步博弈的空间如前期报告《核心CPI偏强、M1错月高增》（20240218）提到，今年1月的核心CPI处于近年来春节前月份偏强水平，或反映居民消费需求的回升。2月核心CPI继续走强，再次印证这一趋势。1-2月，核心CPI累计环比上涨约0.8%，为近几年最高，与2019年1-2月的累计涨幅接近。核心CPI月度涨幅的下行趋势已得到扭转。食品类CPI同比降幅显著收窄、能源价格对CPI保持温和的正效应。作为代表性的食品和能源价格，猪肉批发价和柴油市场价变动趋于平稳，有利于整体物价随着核心通胀而温和回升。CPI与PPI同比涨幅分化，利好下游产业盈利空间合理改善。居民消费需求回升的同时，上游原料、燃料价格继续温和下降，为下游产业盈利空间的合理改善提供契机。在核心通胀或已进入温和回升路径的背景下，对货币政策的进一步博弈应该更加谨慎。对债市而言，近期长债、超长债利率较快下行，反映了对后续货币政策空间的预期。2月房租类CPI环比和同比均持平，这可能反映城镇住房供求或处于较为均衡状态，一手房市场景气的恢复仍需要利率条件的配合。但1-2月的通胀数据在一定程度上印证了居民消费需求回升，也应关注对政策空间预期过度的风险，对长债、超长债不宜过度“追涨”。风险提示：国内外实体经济出现超预期变化；国内政策超预期收紧；国际地缘政治紧张局势升级等。', 'content': 'Inflation data confirms the rebound in consumer demand, and the bond market needs to pay attention to the space for further policy games. As mentioned in the previous report \"Core CPI is Strong, M1 Increases in Staggered Months\" (20240218), the core CPI in January this year was before the Spring Festival in recent years. The strong monthly level may reflect the rebound in consumer demand. Core CPI continued to strengthen in February, once again confirming this trend. From January to February, the core CPI increased by approximately 0.8% month-on-month, the highest in recent years and close to the cumulative increase from January to February 2019. The downward trend in core CPI monthly gains has been reversed. The year-on-year decline in food CPI narrowed significantly, and energy prices maintained a moderate positive effect on CPI. As representative food and energy prices, wholesale pork prices and diesel market prices have stabilized, which is conducive to a moderate recovery in overall prices along with core inflation. The year-on-year growth rates of CPI and PPI are divergent, which is good for a reasonable improvement in the profit margins of downstream industries. While household consumption demand is recovering, upstream raw material and fuel prices continue to decline moderately, providing opportunities for reasonable improvement in the profit margins of downstream industries. Against the background that core inflation may have entered a moderate recovery path, we should be more cautious about further gaming of monetary policy. For the bond market, the recent rapid decline in long-term bond and ultra-long bond interest rates reflects expectations for subsequent monetary policy space. The CPI for rent in February was both month-on-month and year-on-year, which may reflect that urban housing supply and demand may be in a relatively balanced state. The recovery of the primary housing market still requires the cooperation of interest rate conditions. However, the inflation data from January to February confirm to a certain extent the rebound in consumer demand. We should also pay attention to the risk of excessive expectations for policy space, and we should not excessively \"chasing the rise\" of long-term bonds and ultra-long bonds. Risk warning: unexpected changes in the real economy at home and abroad; unexpected tightening of domestic policies; escalation of international geopolitical tensions, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('010b4a40-792e-5d21-ab07-46126fbd3a18'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6453948095440865, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'R3AAE9NA7V11J2MS8AUPOG5K7VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:24 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'R3AAE9NA7V11J2MS8AUPOG5K7VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2d664a2f-5015-5e78-82f3-51cc6d2a6465'), 'title': 'February Inflation Comments: Price performance exceeded expectations, domestic demand is expected to continue to recover', 'author': 'Zhang Xiaojiao, Zhu Qibing', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UvrgbmmqudRGFwwyq99oV5s=', 'researcher': '张晓娇,朱启兵', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000213120', '11000224223'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UvrgbmmqudRGFwwyq99oV5s=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626200470_1.pdf?1710083299000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626200470_1.pdf?1710083299000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'February Inflation Comments: Price performance exceeded expectations, domestic demand is expected to continue to recover', 'originalAuthor': '张晓娇,朱启兵', 'originalContent': '2月CPI同比增速超预期，主要是受春节假期消费和部分地区雨雪天气影响；从分项看，食品和服务是推动CPI超预期的主要因素；虽然低基数仍将在二季度及前后几个月时间内主导CPI同比增速上行的趋势，但在春节假期结束后，3月CPI同比增速可能较2月回落；2月PPI同比增速低于预期，主要是受生产资料价格环比增速下降的影响；短期内需要关注3月春节假期结束后基建和房地产投资复工的情况，中期内外需可能成为拉动我国生产端走强的超预期因素。2月CPI环比上升1.0%，同比增长0.7%，核心CPI同比增长1.2%，服务价格同比增长1.9%，消费品价格同比下降0.1%。从环比看，2月食品价格影响CPI上涨约0.59个百分点，非食品价格影响CPI上涨约0.44个百分点；从同比看，食品价格影响CPI下降约0.17个百分点，非食品价格影响CPI上涨约0.89个百分点。价格表现超预期，内需有望持续复苏。2月CPI同比增速转正在市场预期之中，但同比增速涨幅0.7%超出万得一致预期的0.4%，其中对环比增速影响比较大的分类包括：鲜菜、猪肉、水产品和鲜果价格合计影响CPI环比上涨约0.58个百分点，飞机票、交通工具租赁费、旅游、电影及演出票价格合计影响CPI环比上涨约0.30个百分点，国内汽油价格影响CPI环比上涨约0.07个百分点，上述三类累计影响CPI环比上涨幅度达到0.95个百分点。我们认为2月通胀上行幅度超预期，表明内需复苏的趋势依然存在，有助于提振市场对消费走势的信心，但也需要关注到，2月存在春节假期和部分地区雨雪天气对食品运输供给等影响，在假期效应回落后，3月CPI同比增速可能较2月有所回落。但我们也维持此前观点，二季度CPI同比增速将受到低基数的提振，全年或维持平稳上行趋势。2月PPI环比下降0.2%，同比下降2.7%，其中生产资料同比下降3.4%，生活资料同比下降0.9%。PPIRM同比下降3.4%，同比增速较1月下降的是黑色金属和有色金属，增速较1月上升较多的则是木材纸浆、建筑材料和农副产品等。从同比看，主要行业中，化学原料和化学制品制造业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业、电气机械和器材制造业4个行业同比降幅比上月均扩大，合计影响PPI同比下降约1.17个百分点，对PPI的下拉作用比上月增加0.19个百分点；煤炭开采和洗选业价格、非金属矿物制品业、计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业合计影响PPI同比下降约0.92个百分点。关注节后基建和房地产投资复工情况。2月PPI同比增速较1月小幅下降，增速低于万得一致预期的-2.5%。从原因看，春节假期前停工的季节性因素较大，从分项看，化学原料、钢铁、水泥、石油煤炭、非金属矿物、电气机械、计算机通信等行业价格都对PPI增速下行有不同程度的影响。我们认为全年在低基数影响下PPI同比增速或仍大概率维持上行趋势，从1-2月出口数据看，外需可能成为拉动生产的超预期因素。短期建议关注节后基建和房地产投资复工的情况。风险提示：全球通胀回落偏慢；欧美经济回落速度偏快；国际局势复杂化。', 'content': \"The year-on-year growth rate of CPI in February exceeded expectations, mainly due to the impact of Spring Festival holiday consumption and rain and snow weather in some areas; from a breakdown, food and services are the main factors driving CPI to exceed expectations; although the low base will still be in the second quarter and around The upward trend in year-on-year CPI growth has dominated for several months, but after the Spring Festival holiday, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in March may fall back compared to February; the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in February was lower than expected, mainly due to the month-on-month price increase of production materials. The impact of declining growth; in the short term, attention needs to be paid to the resumption of infrastructure and real estate investment after the Spring Festival holiday in March. In the medium term, domestic and foreign demand may become a stronger-than-expected factor in the strengthening of my country's production side. In February, CPI increased by 1.0% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year. Service prices increased by 1.9% year-on-year. Consumer goods prices fell by 0.1% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, food prices in February affected the CPI increase by about 0.59 percentage points, and non-food prices affected the CPI increase by about 0.44 percentage points. From a year-on-year perspective, food prices affected the CPI decrease by about 0.17 percentage points, and non-food prices affected the CPI increase by about 0.89 percentage points. percentage point. Price performance exceeded expectations, and domestic demand is expected to continue to recover. The year-on-year CPI growth rate in February was within market expectations, but the year-on-year growth rate of 0.7% exceeded Wind's consensus expectation of 0.4%. Among them, the categories that have a greater impact on the month-on-month growth rate include: fresh vegetables, pork, aquatic products and fresh fruits The total prices affect the CPI increase by about 0.58 percentage points month-on-month. The total prices of air tickets, transportation rental fees, travel, movie and performance tickets affect the CPI increase by about 0.30 percentage points month-on-month. Domestic gasoline prices affect the CPI increase by about 0.07 percentage points month-on-month. The above three factors affect the CPI increase by about 0.07 percentage points. The cumulative impact of this category on the month-on-month increase in CPI reached 0.95 percentage points. We believe that inflation in February rose more than expected, indicating that the trend of domestic demand recovery still exists, which will help boost market confidence in consumption trends. However, we also need to pay attention to the Spring Festival holiday and rain and snow weather in some areas in February, which will have an impact on food transportation. Due to supply and other influences, after the holiday effect recedes, the year-on-year CPI growth rate in March may fall back compared to February. However, we also maintain our previous view that the year-on-year CPI growth rate in the second quarter will be boosted by a low base, and may maintain a steady upward trend throughout the year. In February, PPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with production materials falling by 3.4% year-on-year and living materials falling by 0.9% year-on-year. PPIRM decreased by 3.4% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate decreased compared with January for ferrous metals and non-ferrous metals, while the year-on-year growth rate increased significantly compared with January for wood pulp, building materials, agricultural and sideline products, etc. From a year-on-year perspective, among the major industries, the year-on-year declines in the four major industries, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, all expanded compared with the previous month. The total The impact on PPI dropped by about 1.17 percentage points year-on-year, and the downward effect on PPI increased by 0.19 percentage points from the previous month; the coal mining and washing industry prices, non-metallic mineral products industry, computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries combined to affect PPI by about 1.17 percentage points year-on-year. 0.92 percentage points. Pay attention to the resumption of infrastructure and real estate investment after the holiday. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI in February dropped slightly from January, and the growth rate was lower than Wind's consensus forecast of -2.5%. Judging from the reasons, the seasonal factors of the shutdown before the Spring Festival holiday are relatively large. From a sub-item perspective, the prices of chemical raw materials, steel, cement, petroleum and coal, non-metallic minerals, electrical machinery, computer communications and other industries have different effects on the downward trend of PPI growth. degree of influence. We believe that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI is likely to maintain an upward trend due to the low base throughout the year. Judging from the export data from January to February, external demand may become an unexpected factor in stimulating production. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to the resumption of infrastructure and real estate investment after the holidays. Risk warning: Global inflation is falling slowly; European and American economies are falling quickly; the international situation is complicated.\", 'authorid': UUID('52d6affa-3156-5e62-b963-6ddd41b8d0d3'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6331552714109421, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'AV52O85F3IO0UKF03ETE2KTFR3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:27 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'AV52O85F3IO0UKF03ETE2KTFR3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0851de9f-2a87-5037-aa2b-95bfb207776b'), 'title': 'Overseas Observation: U.S. employment data in February 2024-U.S. employment in February was generally weak', 'author': 'Hu Shaohua, Liu Sijia', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UqWUDUl/mtsy710TfQliYsk=', 'researcher': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249934', '11000257478'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UqWUDUl/mtsy710TfQliYsk=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626199844_1.pdf?1710081735000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626199844_1.pdf?1710081735000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas Observation: U.S. employment data in February 2024-U.S. employment in February was generally weak', 'originalAuthor': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'originalContent': '投资要点事件：美国2月新增非农就业27.5万人，前值从35.5万下修至22.9万人，预期20万人；失业率3.9%，前值3.7%，预期3.7%。时薪环比增长0.1%，前值0.5%，预期0.2%。核心观点：美国就业总体偏弱。虽然2月非农超预期，但前两个月非农就业人数共向下修正16.7万人。失业率意外攀升至3.9%，为过去两年以来最高，对于经济周期更敏感的少数族裔失业走高，说明美国就业边际正在变差。教育、医疗、政府等非周期性行业仍是主要支撑，制造业和批发业就业人数减少，也说明美国就业并没有表面看上去那么强。薪资增速较低，但高于通胀增速，实际薪资上升，仍将继续支撑美国消费。2月美国核心通胀可能不会很高。由于2月美国就业总体偏弱、薪资增速放缓，市场上调了对美联储降息预期的计价。美债收益率和美元指数下跌，美股主要指数高开低走。利率期货显示，市场计价6月降息。美国就业总体偏弱，非农前值大幅下修。虽然2月非农就业人数达到27.5万，高于预期的20万人，但12月和1月的数据都被大幅下修。12月非农新增就业人数从33.3万人下修至29万人；1月从35.3万人大幅下修至22.9万人，前两个月非农就业人数共向下修正16.7万人。2月高于预期的非农就业也有可能会被向下修正。失业率意外走高。家庭与企业调查再次出现分歧，失业率攀升至3.9%，为过去两年以来最高。失业率上升的群体主要是少数族裔。美国黑人的失业率上升0.3pct至5.6%，而白人的失业率维持在3.4%不变。少数族裔群体就业对于经济周期更敏感，少数族裔失业上升，说明美国就业边际正在变差。教育、医疗、政府等非周期性行业仍是主要支撑。教育和保健服务新增就业人数最多，达到8.5万人，休闲酒店业新增5.8万人，政府部门新增5.2万人，这三个行业构成了70%的新增就业岗位，美国就业的行业间分化依然严重。制造业和批发业就业人数减少。医疗、教育、政府等非周期性行业的支撑，也说明美国就业并没有表面看上去那么强。薪资增速低于预期。非农私人企业全体员工的平均时薪季调环比增速为0.1%，低于预期和前值；同比上涨4.3%，符合预期，仍高于美联储2%的通胀目标。时薪增速走低，意味着2月美国核心通胀增幅可能较小。由于时薪同比增速高于通胀增速，实际薪资还在上涨，美国消费可能仍将维持韧性。市场下调降息预期。由于2月美国就业总体偏弱、薪资增速放缓，市场上调了对美联储降息预期的计价。美债收益率和美元指数下跌，美股主要指数高开低走。利率期货显示，市场计价6月降息。风险提示：地缘政治风险；国际定价的大宗商品再通胀风险。', 'content': \"Key investment events: The United States added 275,000 non-farm jobs in February, revised down from the previous value to 229,000 from 355,000, and expected 200,000; the unemployment rate was 3.9%, from the previous value of 3.7%, and the expected 3.7%. Hourly wages increased by 0.1% month-on-month, compared with the previous value of 0.5% and the expected 0.2%. Core view: U.S. employment is generally weak. Although non-agricultural employment in February exceeded expectations, the number of non-agricultural employment in the first two months was revised downward by 167,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 3.9%, the highest level in the past two years. The unemployment rate of ethnic minorities, who are more sensitive to the economic cycle, has increased, indicating that the employment margin in the United States is getting worse. Non-cyclical industries such as education, medical care, and government are still the main support. The decrease in employment in the manufacturing and wholesale industries also shows that U.S. employment is not as strong as it appears on the surface. Wage growth is low, but higher than inflation, and rising real wages will continue to support U.S. consumption. U.S. core inflation may not be very high in February. Due to overall weak employment in the United States and slowing wage growth in February, the market has raised its pricing expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar index fell, while major U.S. stock indexes opened higher and moved lower. Interest rate futures show that the market is pricing in a rate cut in June. U.S. employment is generally weak, with pre-non-farm payrolls revised sharply. Although non-farm payroll employment reached 275,000 in February, higher than the expected 200,000, the data for December and January were significantly revised downwards. The number of new non-farm jobs in December was revised down from 333,000 to 290,000; in January it was revised sharply down from 353,000 to 229,000. In the first two months, the number of new non-farm jobs was revised downward by 167,000. February's higher-than-expected non-farm payrolls may also be revised downwards. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose. Household and business surveys diverge again, with the unemployment rate climbing to 3.9%, the highest level in the past two years. The unemployment rate has risen primarily among ethnic minorities. The unemployment rate for black Americans rose 0.3% to 5.6%, while the unemployment rate for white Americans remained unchanged at 3.4%. The employment of ethnic minority groups is more sensitive to the economic cycle, and the increase in unemployment among ethnic minorities shows that the employment margin in the United States is getting worse. Non-cyclical industries such as education, medical care, and government remain the main support. Education and health services had the largest number of new jobs, reaching 85,000, the leisure and hotel industry added 58,000, and the government sector added 52,000. These three industries accounted for 70% of the new jobs. The differentiation remains serious. Employment declined in manufacturing and wholesale. The support from non-cyclical industries such as medical care, education, and government also shows that U.S. employment is not as strong as it appears on the surface. Wage growth was slower than expected. The average hourly wage of all employees in non-agricultural private enterprises increased by 0.1% seasonally adjusted month-on-month, lower than expected and the previous value; it rose 4.3% year-on-year, in line with expectations, and still higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. The lower hourly wage growth means that the increase in U.S. core inflation in February may be smaller. Since hourly wages are growing faster than inflation year-on-year and real wages are still rising, U.S. consumption is likely to remain resilient. The market lowered interest rate cut expectations. Due to overall weak employment in the United States and slowing wage growth in February, the market has raised its pricing expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar index fell, while major U.S. stock indexes opened higher and moved lower. Interest rate futures show that the market is pricing in a rate cut in June. Risk warning: geopolitical risks; international pricing commodity reflation risks.\", 'authorid': UUID('f33028d3-8791-5b14-80ca-a862e2ba251a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9487457610666752, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'I82GTFUGVP2CCVGJ2NS6P81T0RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:30 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'I82GTFUGVP2CCVGJ2NS6P81T0RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('21183aaa-9607-5a9c-8865-972a2501324f'), 'title': 'Series of studies on the high-quality development of China’s economy: Digital economy: Cars serve as the hub to open up the interconnection of all things, AI empowerment leads to the stars and the sea', 'author': 'Shi Jinman, Qin Zhikun', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2Uq83nvnu8WI71750TngN1l8=', 'researcher': '石金漫,秦智坤', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000232122', '11000449937'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2Uq83nvnu8WI71750TngN1l8=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626199843_1.pdf?1710080813000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626199843_1.pdf?1710080813000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Series of studies on the high-quality development of China’s economy: Digital economy: Cars serve as the hub to open up the interconnection of all things, AI empowerment leads to the stars and the sea', 'originalAuthor': '石金漫,秦智坤', 'originalContent': '核心观点：宏观层面：数字经济将带动中国经济高质量发展。2023年以来软件及信息服务等产业投资总额持续增长，数字经济核心产业彰显出强大的活力，数据要素是数字经济的的基本单元和构成，海量数据资源和超大数据要素市场规模为我国经济发展注入了新的动力。数字经济的三大基础要素为数据、算力和算法，目前中国在数据和算力方面具有明显的大国优势。预计到2025年我国数字经济规模超60万亿元，相比2021年增加一倍。车联网数据要素释放潜力巨大，以自动驾驶为核心带动新技术、新服务、新商业模式。车联网连接车端与道路基础设施端数据，依托“车路云一体化”系统统筹处理，汽车数据规模快速扩大，形成具有挖掘潜力价值的数据要素，带来车联网数据的三次价值释放：一是车辆、路测、云端的全线业务贯通，二是数据决策层面，产生新数据提升车辆和交通决策效率，三是数据流通层面，关联更多行业和企业，实现数据要素价值最大化。新技术：车身电子电气架构、智能座舱、交通信息系统等技术更新迭代加快。新服务：智慧汽车带动智慧交通（无人出租车、自主代客泊车、智慧公交等）、物流配送（干线物流、无人配送、封闭园区物流等）等赋能智慧城市，驱动新一轮新质生产力。新商业：从硬件到软件再到生态圈，形成多元化商业模式。市场空间：预计2030年我国汽车产业数字经济总产值增量为6.7万亿，年均复合增长率为29%。人工智能兴起，为自动驾驶带来革命性变革。1）我们目前的自动驾驶技术路线基于规则设计的场景，然后交给AI系统去使用，相当于是新司机模型，交给一个不会开车的机器怎么去开车；而基于大数据训练的自动驾驶技术路线相当于教给机器怎么从一个新司机成长为经验丰富的老司机。2）区别于传统自动驾驶基于模块化规则，每个模块各司其职，有着独立且明确的目标。应用AI大模型后，自动驾驶算法的底层逻辑将变成“场景→车辆控制”的端到端模型，现阶段主要集中在自动驾驶及智能座舱大模型。展望全球：我国整体处于全球领跑阶段，但尚未形成绝对优势。我国在基础设施、5G通信、北斗导航、ICT等领域形成技术优势，但在电子电气架构、大算力芯片、操作系统、ADAS系统及高端装备等领域的落后仍会影响产业安全可控。行业投资建议：（1）智能驾驶：“车路云一体化”+单车智能模式将长期保持，一方面能够形成冗余度更高的安全保障，另一方面，单车智能水平的不断提升能够明显降低云端系统调控难度，加速“车路云一体化”的规模化应用；（2）智能座舱：AI大模型的发展将继续带动智能座舱装配量与技术水平的持续提升，智能座舱软硬件市场将继续维持高景气度。', 'content': 'Core view: Macro level: The digital economy will drive high-quality development of the Chinese economy. Since 2023, the total investment in industries such as software and information services has continued to grow. The core industries of the digital economy have demonstrated strong vitality. Data elements are the basic units and components of the digital economy. Massive data resources and ultra-large data element market scale have injected an injection into my country\\'s economic development. new impetus. The three basic elements of the digital economy are data, computing power and algorithms. Currently, China has obvious advantages as a major country in data and computing power. It is expected that the scale of my country\\'s digital economy will exceed 60 trillion yuan by 2025, doubling compared with 2021. The data elements of the Internet of Vehicles have great potential to unleash new technologies, new services, and new business models with autonomous driving as the core. The Internet of Vehicles connects the data on the vehicle side and the road infrastructure side. Relying on the \"vehicle-road-cloud integration\" system for overall processing, the scale of automobile data is rapidly expanding, forming data elements with potential value, and bringing about three value releases of Internet of Vehicles data: 1. It is the full-line business integration of vehicles, road testing, and cloud. The second is the data decision-making level, which generates new data to improve the efficiency of vehicle and traffic decision-making. The third is the data circulation level, which is related to more industries and enterprises to maximize the value of data elements. New technologies: Technical updates and iterations such as body electronic and electrical architecture, smart cockpits, and traffic information systems are accelerating. New services: Smart cars drive smart transportation (unmanned taxis, autonomous valet parking, smart buses, etc.), logistics and distribution (trunk logistics, unmanned distribution, closed park logistics, etc.), empower smart cities, and drive a new round of New productivity. New business: From hardware to software to ecosystem, form a diversified business model. Market space: It is estimated that the total output value of my country\\'s automotive industry\\'s digital economy will be 6.7 trillion in 2030, with an average annual compound growth rate of 29%. The rise of artificial intelligence has brought revolutionary changes to autonomous driving. 1) Our current autonomous driving technology route is based on scenarios designed by rules, and then handed over to the AI \\u200b\\u200bsystem for use. It is equivalent to a new driver model, giving a machine that cannot drive how to drive; and autonomous driving technology based on big data training The route is equivalent to teaching the machine how to grow from a new driver to an experienced driver. 2) Different from traditional autonomous driving, which is based on modular rules, each module performs its own duties and has independent and clear goals. After applying the AI \\u200b\\u200blarge model, the underlying logic of the autonomous driving algorithm will become an end-to-end model of \"scene→vehicle control\". At this stage, it is mainly focused on autonomous driving and smart cockpit large models. Looking to the world: my country is in the global leading stage as a whole, but has not yet formed an absolute advantage. my country has developed technological advantages in infrastructure, 5G communications, Beidou navigation, ICT and other fields, but its backwardness in electronic and electrical architecture, large computing power chips, operating systems, ADAS systems and high-end equipment will still affect industrial safety and controllability. Industry investment recommendations: (1) Intelligent driving: \"vehicle-road-cloud integration\" + bicycle intelligence model will be maintained for a long time. On the one hand, it can form a higher redundant safety guarantee. On the other hand, the continuous improvement of bicycle intelligence level can be obvious. Reduce the difficulty of cloud system control and accelerate the large-scale application of \"vehicle-road-cloud integration\"; (2) Smart cockpit: The development of AI large models will continue to drive the continuous improvement of smart cockpit assembly volume and technical level, and the smart cockpit software and hardware market will Continue to maintain a high level of prosperity.', 'authorid': UUID('cd535c24-40ac-52a1-b222-ea4537614ef9'), 'sentimentScore': 0.5926911411806941, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '068AVIRM1D742T3TJN304S021NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:32 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '068AVIRM1D742T3TJN304S021NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('42d9b3f0-bdcf-5633-858e-843e9b8493f1'), 'title': 'Domestic Observation: Inflation data for February 2024: CPI returned to positive beyond expectations, and the center is expected to move upward', 'author': 'Liu Sijia, Hu Shaohua', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UvyvO9vovgx/wOfrhkmMk2M=', 'researcher': '刘思佳,胡少华', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257478', '11000249934'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UvyvO9vovgx/wOfrhkmMk2M=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626199397_1.pdf?1710078918000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626199397_1.pdf?1710078918000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Domestic Observation: Inflation data for February 2024: CPI returned to positive beyond expectations, and the center is expected to move upward', 'originalAuthor': '刘思佳,胡少华', 'originalContent': '事件：3月9日，统计局发布2024年2月通胀数据。2月，CPI当月同比0.7%，前值-0.8%；环比1.0%，前值0.3%。PPI当月同比-2.7%，前值-2.5%；环比-0.2%，前值-0.2%。核心观点：总的来看，春节错位影响导致1-2月CPI先降后升，其中服务价格的表现超预期、食品价格的超季节性表现是推动2月CPI同比回正的主要原因。往后看，受基数回落的影响，以季节性环比来推算，CPI可能在正值区间波动，中枢逐渐上移。PPI对工业企业利润的影响较大，影响权益分子端定价。总体来看，两会定调积极，超长期特别国债1万亿元，去年留存的5000亿元增发国债，大规模设备更新及消费品以旧换新等多项政策均有望推动通胀逐步回升。剔除春节错位影响，CPI整体持平季节性，非食品超季节性。2月CPI环比1.0%，以2010年以后春节位于2月的年份测算环比均值为1.08%，基本持平于季节性。分项来看，食品环比3.3%，持平于季节性（2010年以来剔除春节错位影响均值3.32%），而非食品环比0.5%（均值0.31%），表现超季节性。猪价小幅上涨，基数回落下同比转正。据农业农村部数据，2月猪肉平均批发价21.68元/公斤，较上月的20.09元/公斤小幅上涨，另一方面基数延续回落的趋势（2023年1月23.83元/公斤降至2023年2月21.11元/公斤），CPI中猪价同比升至0.2%（+17.5pct），2023年5月以来首次转正。供给来看，1月能繁母猪存栏量降至4100万头以下，为2020年11月以来首次，存栏去化的速度有所加快，持续性仍有待跟踪。鲜菜鲜果存季节性上涨，另一方面雨雪天气也影响供给，鲜菜、鲜果分别环比上涨12.7%和4.3%。服务价格超季节性，核心通胀明显回升。2月消费品价格环比1.10%（2010年以来剔除春节错位影响均值1.3%），仍然略弱于季节性。服务消费价格环比1.0%（2010年以来剔除春节错位影响均值0.66%），强于季节性，与春节期间消费表现较好相验证。整体上服务消费仍强于消费品，往后看消费品以旧换新政策落地后或推动汽车、家电等产品的销量，对通胀形成一定贡献。另一方面，受服务价格的带动，核心CPI环比0.5%，明显超季节性，同比跳升至1.2%，为2022年1月以来最高。PPI能否回升期待政策落地效果。2月PPI环比-0.2%，降幅持平于上月，表现依然弱于季节性（近5年同期均值0.14%）。2月受春节季节性影响，工业品需求处于淡季。若只以PPI季节性环比推演，上半年可能很难回正，往后看可能需要关注四条线索：一是地方财力受限对传统基建的影响；二是房地产三大工程的推进速度；三是大规模设备更新投资的力度，据发改委表示市场空间在5万亿以上；四是原油价格是否能保持高位震荡。总体来看，驱动PPI回升的有利因素正逐步增加。从2月当月来看，油价上行，带动石油和天然气开采业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业环比分别为2.5%、0.2%；市场需求改善带动有色金属冶炼和压延加工业环比0.2%。用煤需求有所下滑，煤炭开采和洗选业环比-0.7%。受春节假日房地产、基建项目停工等因素影响，钢材、水泥等行业需求减少，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、水泥制造环比-0.4%、-1.4%。风险提示：政策落地不及预期，海外金融市场风险。', 'content': 'Event: On March 9, the Bureau of Statistics released inflation data for February 2024. In February, CPI was 0.7% year-on-year, and the previous value was -0.8%; month-on-month, it was 1.0%, and the previous value was 0.3%. PPI for the month was -2.7% year-on-year, and the previous value was -2.5%; month-on-month -0.2%, and the previous value was -0.2%. Core point of view: Generally speaking, the impact of the Spring Festival dislocation caused the CPI to fall first and then rise from January to February. Among them, the performance of service prices exceeded expectations and the super-seasonal performance of food prices were the main reasons for the year-on-year return of CPI in February. Looking forward, affected by the fall in the base number and calculated on a seasonal basis, the CPI may fluctuate in a positive range, with the center gradually moving upward. PPI has a greater impact on the profits of industrial enterprises and affects the pricing of equity molecules. Overall, the two sessions have set a positive tone. Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds of 1 trillion yuan, 500 billion yuan of additional treasury bonds retained last year, large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in and other policies are expected to promote a gradual recovery in inflation. Excluding the impact of the Spring Festival dislocation, the CPI is generally seasonal and non-food is super seasonal. The CPI in February was 1.0% month-on-month. Based on the year after 2010 when the Spring Festival is in February, the month-on-month average is 1.08%, which is basically the same as seasonality. In terms of items, food sales increased by 3.3% month-on-month, which is consistent with seasonality (the average since 2010, excluding the impact of the Spring Festival dislocation, is 3.32%), while non-food sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month (average 0.31%), which is super seasonal. Pig prices rose slightly, and turned positive year-on-year as the base fell. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of pork in February was 21.68 yuan/kg, a slight increase from 20.09 yuan/kg in the previous month. On the other hand, the base continued to decline (23.83 yuan/kg in January 2023 dropped to 23.83 yuan/kg in February 2023). 21.11 yuan/kg (month), the CPI pig price rose to 0.2% year-on-year (+17.5pct), turning positive for the first time since May 2023. From a supply perspective, the number of reproductive sows dropped below 41 million in January, the first time since November 2020. The pace of destocking has accelerated, and the sustainability remains to be tracked. The inventory of fresh vegetables and fruits increased seasonally. On the other hand, rain and snow weather also affected the supply. Fresh vegetables and fresh fruits increased by 12.7% and 4.3% month-on-month respectively. Service prices were super seasonal and core inflation picked up significantly. Consumer goods prices in February were 1.10% month-on-month (the average since 2010, excluding the impact of the Spring Festival dislocation, is 1.3%), which is still slightly weaker than seasonal. The service consumer price is 1.0% month-on-month (the average value since 2010, excluding the impact of the Spring Festival dislocation, is 0.66%), which is stronger than the seasonality, which is verified by the better consumption performance during the Spring Festival. Overall, service consumption is still stronger than consumer goods. In the future, the implementation of the trade-in policy for consumer goods may boost the sales of automobiles, home appliances and other products, making a certain contribution to inflation. On the other hand, driven by service prices, the core CPI was 0.5% month-on-month, which was obviously super seasonal. It jumped to 1.2% year-on-year, the highest since January 2022. Whether PPI can rebound depends on the effect of policy implementation. PPI in February was -0.2% month-on-month, the decline was the same as last month, and the performance was still weaker than seasonal (the average for the same period in the past five years was 0.14%). In February, due to the seasonal influence of the Spring Festival, the demand for industrial products was in the off-season. If we only use the PPI seasonal chain deduction, it may be difficult to return to normal in the first half of the year. Looking forward, we may need to pay attention to four clues: first, the impact of limited local financial resources on traditional infrastructure; second, the advancement speed of the three major real estate projects; third, Regarding the intensity of investment in large-scale equipment renewal, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, the market space is more than 5 trillion; fourth, whether crude oil prices can remain high and volatile. Overall, the favorable factors driving the recovery of PPI are gradually increasing. From the perspective of February, rising oil prices drove the oil and natural gas mining industry, petroleum coal and other fuel processing industries to 2.5% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively; improved market demand drove the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry to 0.2% month-on-month. The demand for coal has declined, with the coal mining and washing industry -0.7% month-on-month. Affected by factors such as the suspension of real estate and infrastructure projects during the Spring Festival holiday, demand in industries such as steel and cement decreased. The ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and cement manufacturing fell by -0.4% and -1.4% month-on-month. Risk warning: Policy implementation falls short of expectations, and there are risks in overseas financial markets.', 'authorid': UUID('2bb8c3e6-3f18-54fc-986c-cc6e63caf435'), 'sentimentScore': -0.3917629271745682, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '6JOSK90G72TSA3DCE6598G37R7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:35 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '6JOSK90G72TSA3DCE6598G37R7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5491cc32-9600-5987-96f9-0e8f1ead82bf'), 'title': 'Undervalued CPI', 'author': 'Xie Yunliang ,Mai Linyue', 'orgName': '信达证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80092742', 'orgSName': '信达证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UlzEHL1H2YyRkx40jXZIDb8=', 'researcher': '解运亮,麦麟玥', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000243225', '11000440452'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=MXCd+gH/3+e4jH+QFVO2UlzEHL1H2YyRkx40jXZIDb8=', 'site': 'Cinda Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '信达证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626199315_1.pdf?1710075230000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403101626199315_1.pdf?1710075230000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Undervalued CPI', 'originalAuthor': '解运亮,麦麟玥', 'originalContent': '市场低估了 CPI 的上涨。 今年 2 月 CPI 同比由负转正， 核心 CPI 同比为2022 年 2 月以来最高涨幅。 CPI 同比涨幅较高，既有春节错月因素，也有经济体消费需求增长的拉动。 1）春节错月拉升 CPI 同比。今年春节在 2月，去年春节是 1 月，春节错月因素导致今年同期的基数偏低。 2） 2 月环比涨幅扩大显示当月消费需求亦有增长。春节期间食品消费需求、 出行和文娱消费需求大量增加带动了 CPI 环比，被市场低估的 CPI 走出“W型” 的双底形态。地产和基建项目停工带动 PPI 回落。 PPI 同比表现低于市场预期， 我们认为， 2 月春节假日影响下工业生产处于传统淡季，因此全国 PPI 环比下降、同比降幅扩大。 而黑色系相关价格环比回落较多或是 2 月 PPI 降幅扩大的关键。 1）在春节期间，由于房地产、基建项目停工，钢材、水泥等行业需求减弱，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、水泥制造价格环比下降。2）在采掘和原材料行业中，黑色系相关价格均出现较大回落。而下游行业中，除食品、医药行业外，多个下游行业价格环比均有不同程度的改善。经济出现结构性弱改善。 截至今年 2 月， CPI、 PPI 价格水平双负的局面已经被打破。 2 月 CPI 的转正有春节错月的影响，但当月需求亦有增长。2 月 PPI 同比、环比均出现回落，背后有地产、基建项目因春节停工的影响。 总体看， CPI 同比由负转正、环比增长较多， 被市场低估的 CPI 走出了“W 型” 走势的双底形态。 结合年初的进出口贸易和物价数据来看， 经济企稳并呈弱改善迹象，但结构分化很大。经济不同部门出现分化，出口数据超预期、服务业价格上涨， 显示出口和服务业等部门在改善， 但地产部门仍在继续下行， 经济出现结构性弱改善。风险因素： 地缘政治风险，国际油价上涨超预期等。', 'content': 'The market is underestimating the rise in CPI. In February this year, the year-on-year CPI turned from negative to positive, and the core CPI year-on-year increase was the highest since February 2022. The higher year-on-year increase in CPI is due to the fact that the Spring Festival is in the wrong month and also driven by the growth in consumer demand in the economy. 1) The Spring Festival happened in the wrong month to boost CPI year-on-year. This year’s Spring Festival falls in February, while last year’s Spring Festival fell in January. The misalignment of the Spring Festival resulted in a low base for the same period this year. 2) The expanded month-on-month increase in February showed that consumer demand also increased in that month. During the Spring Festival, the substantial increase in food consumption demand, travel and entertainment consumption demand drove the CPI month-on-month, and the CPI, which was underestimated by the market, came out of a \"W-shaped\" double bottom shape. The suspension of real estate and infrastructure projects drove the PPI down. The year-on-year performance of PPI was lower than market expectations. We believe that industrial production was in the traditional off-season due to the Spring Festival holiday in February, so the national PPI fell month-on-month and the year-on-year decline expanded. The sharp decline in black-related prices from the previous month may be the key to the expansion of the PPI decline in February. 1) During the Spring Festival, due to the suspension of real estate and infrastructure projects, the demand for steel, cement and other industries weakened, and the prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries and cement manufacturing fell month-on-month. 2) In the mining and raw material industries, prices related to black series have dropped significantly. In the downstream industries, except for the food and pharmaceutical industries, prices in many downstream industries have improved to varying degrees month-on-month. The economy showed weak structural improvement. As of February this year, the situation of double negative CPI and PPI price levels has been broken. The positive CPI in February was affected by the wrong month of the Spring Festival, but demand also increased that month. In February, PPI fell year-on-year and month-on-month, which was affected by the suspension of real estate and infrastructure projects due to the Spring Festival. Overall, the CPI turned from negative to positive year-on-year and increased month-on-month. The CPI, which was underestimated by the market, has emerged from a \"W-shaped\" double-bottom pattern. Judging from the import and export trade and price data at the beginning of the year, the economy has stabilized and shown weak signs of improvement, but the structure is highly differentiated. Different sectors of the economy are diverging. Export data exceeded expectations and prices in the service industry increased, indicating that exports and service industries are improving. However, the real estate sector continues to decline, and the economy shows weak structural improvement. Risk factors: geopolitical risks, higher-than-expected rise in international oil prices, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('3f9d3803-89e6-5e94-a0a5-28b6565d83a1'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7525713369250298, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'CLLA8RQGHHM2GGQ4G5RSHM9OKBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:37 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'CLLA8RQGHHM2GGQ4G5RSHM9OKBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('4cfc7840-fff2-5b34-8537-b48c3d033cea'), 'title': 'Macro Special Research: Tracking the US Election: The \"gears\" have begun to turn', 'author': 'Zhao Honghe', 'orgName': '民生证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000038', 'orgSName': '民生证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxh675hq6SdVySjC9Ax7kt9o=', 'researcher': '赵宏鹤', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000330356'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxh675hq6SdVySjC9Ax7kt9o=', 'site': 'Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '民生证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626192391_1.pdf?1710068590000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626192391_1.pdf?1710068590000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Special Research: Tracking the US Election: The \"gears\" have begun to turn', 'originalAuthor': '赵宏鹤', 'originalContent': '美国大选可能是今年最重要的外部宏观变量，特朗普和拜登大概率将于11月再次对决。近期民调显示特朗普的支持率高于拜登，在大部分关键摇摆州也是如此，不过早期民调对大选结果的预见性历来比较有限。在跟踪美国大选时，还应关注影响两党选情具体问题的走向。拜登确实面临不少难题，除了无解的年龄问题，移民问题最为棘手、地缘问题“两头不讨好”。这些问题在接下来几个月存在调整策略的机会，也存在冒出“黑天鹅”的风险。黑利虽然无法战胜特朗普，却是他的试金石，让我们看到特朗普实际上也面临不少挑战。除了剩余的法律诉讼问题，更重要的是如何争取党内温和派和中间选民的支持。在“两党极化，中立增多”的大背景下，中间选民的影响力不容忽视。当前尚没有哪方占据明显优势，贯穿今年的选情走向还会存在很多变数，双方在应对难题、争取有利结果的过程中，会不断进行博弈。“齿轮”已经开始转动，双方为���得大选而做出的博弈行为，将比大选结果更早对市场产生影响。风险提示：地缘形势超预期变化，美国经济和通胀韧性超预期', 'content': 'The U.S. election may be the most important external macro variable this year, and Trump and Biden will most likely face off again in November. Recent polls have shown Trump\\'s approval rating is higher than Biden\\'s, including in most key battleground states, but early polls have historically been less predictive of the outcome of the election. When tracking the U.S. election, we should also pay attention to the direction of specific issues that affect the election situation of the two parties. Biden does face many problems. In addition to the unsolvable age issue, the immigration issue is the most thorny issue and the geographical issue \"cannot please both ends.\" These issues present opportunities to adjust strategies in the coming months, as well as the risk of \"black swans\" emerging. Although Haley cannot defeat Trump, she is his touchstone and shows us that Trump actually faces many challenges. In addition to the remaining legal issues, more important is how to win the support of moderates and centrist voters in the party. In the context of \"polarization of the two parties and an increase in neutrality\", the influence of the median voter cannot be ignored. At present, no party has a clear advantage. There will be many variables throughout this year\\'s election. The two sides will continue to engage in games as they deal with difficult problems and strive for favorable results. The \"gears\" have begun to turn, and the gaming behavior of both parties to win the election will have an impact on the market earlier than the election results. Risk warning: The geopolitical situation has changed beyond expectations, and the resilience of the U.S. economy and inflation has exceeded expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('c0fa26e4-f5e4-5712-8059-b76c5f4762fb'), 'sentimentScore': 0.15218497812747955, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'US1SGBRE96T98R5QH3CQ455VABVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:40 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'US1SGBRE96T98R5QH3CQ455VABVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('109b055e-cc51-5917-9389-c385ddda62ba'), 'title': 'High-frequency data tracking weekly report: Petroleum asphalt unit operating rate continues to rise this week', 'author': 'Tan Yiming, Lang Henan, Xie Yao', 'orgName': '民生证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000038', 'orgSName': '民生证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxouy8+P1rUnuuXmwn68+l2Y=', 'researcher': '谭逸鸣,郎赫男,谢瑶', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000374135', '11000440439', '11000449731'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxouy8+P1rUnuuXmwn68+l2Y=', 'site': 'Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '民生证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626190991_1.pdf?1710066562000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626190991_1.pdf?1710066562000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'High-frequency data tracking weekly report: Petroleum asphalt unit operating rate continues to rise this week', 'originalAuthor': '谭逸鸣,郎赫男,谢瑶', 'originalContent': '生产端观察：本周(3.4-3.8)唐山高炉开工率较上周下降；主要钢材品种库存续升，螺纹钢库存续升；焦化企业开工率续降，秦皇岛港煤炭库存转升，炼焦煤总库存续降；PTA、纯碱、聚酯切片、涤纶长丝、石油沥青装置开工率上升，苯乙烯开工率下降；全钢胎汽车轮胎开工率转降，半钢胎汽车轮胎开工率续升。总体看，本周生产整体平稳运行。需求端观察：本周(3.4-3.8)30大中城市商品房成交面积下降；无氧铜杆价格上升，螺纹钢、高线、热轧板卷、冷轧板卷、沥青、水泥、玻璃价格下降；全国电影票房续降，上海地铁客运量续升；进出口相关指数中，波罗的海干散货指数续升，CCFI综合指数、SCFI综合指数、宁波出口集装箱运价指数、CICFI综合指数下降。通胀观察：本周(3.4-3.8)农产品批发价格200指数下降1.57%至126.52点；猪肉平均批发价下降1.36%至20.1元/公斤，7种重点监测水果平均批发价上升1.04%至7.36元/公斤，28种重点监测蔬菜平均批发价下降3.46%至5.36元/公斤；布伦特原油现货价格上升1.33%至85.73美元/桶，IPE英国天然气价格上升8.06%至66.96便士/色姆，LME铜现货结算价上升1.26%至8483.8美元/吨，LME铝现货结算价上升2.02%至2196.1美元/吨。风险提示：政策不确定性；基本面变化超预期。', 'content': 'Observation on the production side: This week (3.4-3.8), the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces dropped compared with last week; the inventory of major steel products continued to rise, and the inventory of rebar continued to rise; the operating rate of coking enterprises continued to decline, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao Port increased, and the total coking coal inventory continued to rise. Inventories continued to fall; the operating rate of PTA, soda ash, polyester chips, polyester filament, and petroleum asphalt equipment increased, while the operating rate of styrene decreased; the operating rate of all-steel tire automobile tires declined, while the operating rate of semi-steel tire automobile tires continued to rise. Overall, production is running smoothly this week. Demand-side observation: This week (3.4-3.8), the transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bcommercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased; the price of oxygen-free copper rods increased, and the prices of rebar, high-speed wire, hot-rolled coils, cold-rolled coils, asphalt, cement, and glass decreased ; National movie box office continued to fall, and Shanghai subway passenger volume continued to rise; among import and export related indices, the Baltic Dry Bulk Index continued to rise, while the CCFI Comprehensive Index, SCFI Comprehensive Index, Ningbo Export Container Freight Index, and CICFI Comprehensive Index declined. Inflation observation: this week (3.4-3.8) the wholesale price of agricultural products 200 index fell by 1.57% to 126.52 points; the average wholesale price of pork fell by 1.36% to 20.1 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of seven types of key monitored fruits increased by 1.04% to 7.36 yuan/kg. Kilograms, the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables fell by 3.46% to 5.36 yuan/kg; Brent crude oil spot price rose by 1.33% to 85.73 US dollars/barrel, IPE British natural gas price rose by 8.06% to 66.96 pence/sem, LME copper The spot settlement price increased by 1.26% to US$8,483.8/ton, and the LME aluminum spot settlement price increased by 2.02% to US$2,196.1/ton. Risk warning: policy uncertainty; fundamental changes exceed expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('0e2e77a5-b8b5-5ba0-8728-8b25da6400a8'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9010342285037041, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '5UC6Q5PO3CCQORBL793UKGL0F7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:43 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '5UC6Q5PO3CCQORBL793UKGL0F7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('701082f8-f972-5387-a998-0111354ec77b'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Comments: Travel consumption booms, services and core CPI rise super-seasonally', 'author': 'He Ning', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxuJqJnHXdycx6zbnhMTtNZc=', 'researcher': '何宁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxuJqJnHXdycx6zbnhMTtNZc=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626190989_1.pdf?1710065211000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626190989_1.pdf?1710065211000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Comments: Travel consumption booms, services and core CPI rise super-seasonally', 'originalAuthor': '何宁', 'originalContent': '事件：2月CPI同比+0.7%，预期+0.4%，前值-0.8%；PPI同比-2.7%，预期-2.5%，前值-2.5%。服务与实物消费价格延续修复趋势，CPI环比涨幅扩大2月CPI同比由负转正，同比较前值上升1.5个百分点至0.7%，环比涨幅扩大，较前值上升0.7个百分点至1.0%。(1)食品项：蔬果猪肉价格带动食品项环比涨幅扩大2月CPI食品项环比涨幅扩大，较前值上升2.9个百分点至3.3%。蔬菜方面，春节需求较为旺盛，蔬菜价格季节性上升，往后看，节后需求或将有所降低，蔬菜价格或将回落。猪肉方面，春节猪肉价格季节性反弹，往后看，春节后进入消费淡季，且供给充足，预计猪肉价格或将有所回落。(2)非食品项：环比涨幅扩大，旅游、交通工具用燃料价格超季节性上升2月CPI非食品项环比涨幅扩大，较前值上升0.3个百分点至0.5%。季节性看，明显高于季节性的分项有旅游、交通工具用燃料、服装、家用器具等；明显低于季节性的分项有家庭服务、邮递服务等。需要注意的是，旅游、服装等出行消费环比超季节性，而家庭服务等居家高端消费环比低于季节性，或反映居民消费支出选择发生变化。(3)核心CPI同环比涨幅均扩大，中小企业经营与服务业景气度延续改善2月核心CPI同���涨幅扩大，较前值上升0.8个百分点至1.2%；环比涨幅扩大，较前值上升0.2个百分点至0.5%。结合2月服务业PMI、中国企业经营状况指数、服务CPI环比较前值均上升来看，2月中小企业经营与服务业景气度延续改善趋势。值得一提的是，继2023年12月以来，核心CPI与服务CPI连续3个月走势接近或超出季节性，反映服务消费与实物消费需求修复或具有一定持续性，建议对节后走势保持关注。PPI同比回落，大宗商品价格跌多涨少2月PPI同比降幅扩大，同比较前值下降0.2个百分点至-2.7%，环比降幅与前值持平，为-0.2%。(1)多重复合指标显示，下游价格回升倾向大于上游原材料2月CPI-PPI同比剪刀差、PPI生活资料-生产资料同比增速差均扩大；上游采掘工业同比降幅较前值收窄，原材料工业、加工工业同比降幅较前值均扩大，下游食品、衣着、耐用品价格同比较前值回升。综合以上复合指标，若以同比为衡量基准，下游价格边际回升倾向大于上游原材料。(2)39个工业行业看，需求平淡，大宗商品价格跌多涨少能源方面，地缘政治冲突延续，国内石油链产品价格环比较前值回升，下游整体采购动能偏弱，PPI煤炭开采和洗选业环比由正转负。金属方面，需求平淡，黑色金属矿采选环比涨幅收窄，有色金属矿采选环比由正转负；节后需求恢复速度不及预期，非金属矿价格有所回落。预计3月CPI同比略有回落，PPI同比回升从CPI来看，食品项中蔬菜猪肉价格短期内或将季节性回落，或对3月CPI形成一定拖累；而非食品项中核心CPI环比连续3个月超季节性，已显现一定积极因素，叠加低基数效应，CPI同比或在二季度开始继续温和上行，我们初步预计3月CPI环比为-0.4%左右，同比或在0.6%左右，2024年全年平均同比在0%-1%区间。近期大宗商品价格震荡运行，鲍威尔发言明确年内降息预期对大宗商品价格提供支撑，未来整体走势或将呈现回升态势，我们预计3月PPI同环比有所回升，2024年全年平均同比在-1%-0%区间。中长期看，随着需求内生修复叠加三大工程推进，实物工作量增加，提振商品及相关原材料消费需求，物价上行通道或已开启，在内生修复基础上，同时推进大规模设备更新与价格机制改革，CPI、PPI或将有超预期回升弹性。风险提示：政策变化超预期，大宗商品价格波动超预期。', 'content': \"Event: CPI in February was +0.7% year-on-year, expected to be +0.4%, and the previous value was -0.8%; PPI was -2.7% year-on-year, expected to be -2.5%, and the previous value was -2.5%. Consumer prices for services and physical goods continued to recover, and the month-on-month increase in CPI expanded. In February, the CPI turned from negative to positive year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percentage points to 0.7%. The month-on-month increase expanded, with an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous value to 1.0%. (1) Food items: Prices of vegetables, fruits and pork drove the month-on-month increase in food items to expand. The CPI food items increased month-on-month in February, rising 2.9 percentage points to 3.3% from the previous value. In terms of vegetables, demand is relatively strong during the Spring Festival, and vegetable prices rise seasonally. Looking forward, demand may decrease after the holiday, and vegetable prices may fall. In terms of pork, the price of pork rebounded seasonally during the Spring Festival. Looking forward, the off-season for consumption will enter after the Spring Festival and the supply is sufficient. It is expected that the price of pork will fall back. (2) Non-food items: The month-on-month increase expanded. The price of fuel for tourism and transportation increased super-seasonally. The month-on-month increase in CPI non-food items expanded in February, rising by 0.3 percentage points to 0.5% from the previous value. In terms of seasonality, the sub-items that are significantly higher than the seasonal ones include tourism, fuel for transportation, clothing, household appliances, etc.; the sub-items that are significantly lower than the seasonal ones include household services, postal services, etc. It should be noted that travel consumption, such as travel and clothing, is hyper-seasonal month-on-month, while high-end home consumption such as home services is lower than seasonal month-on-month, which may reflect changes in residents' consumption expenditure choices. (3) The year-on-month increase in core CPI expanded, and the business climate of small and medium-sized enterprises and the service industry continued to improve. The year-on-year increase in core CPI in February expanded, rising 0.8 percentage points from the previous value to 1.2%; the month-on-month increase expanded, rising 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. percentage points to 0.5%. Judging from the increase in February's service industry PMI, China's business operating conditions index, and service CPI compared with the previous value, the business climate of small and medium-sized enterprises and the service industry's prosperity continued to improve in February. It is worth mentioning that since December 2023, the trend of core CPI and service CPI for three consecutive months has been close to or exceeded seasonal trends, reflecting that the recovery of service consumption and physical consumption demand may have a certain degree of sustainability. It is recommended to keep an eye on the post-holiday trends. . PPI fell back year-on-year, and commodity prices fell more than they rose. The year-on-year decline in PPI in February expanded, falling 0.2 percentage points to -2.7% compared with the previous value. The month-on-month decline was the same as the previous value, at -0.2%. (1) Multiple composite indicators show that the tendency for downstream prices to rebound is greater than that of upstream raw materials. In February, the CPI-PPI year-on-year scissors difference and the PPI living materials-production materials year-on-year growth rate gap both expanded; the year-on-year decline in the upstream mining industry narrowed compared with the previous value, and the raw materials industry, The year-on-year decline in the processing industry expanded compared with the previous value, and the prices of downstream food, clothing, and durable goods rebounded compared with the previous value. Based on the above composite indicators, if the year-on-year basis is used as the benchmark, the marginal rebound tendency of downstream prices is greater than that of upstream raw materials. (2) Looking at 39 industrial industries, demand is flat, commodity prices have fallen more than they have risen. In terms of energy, geopolitical conflicts continue, prices of domestic petroleum chain products have rebounded from the previous value, overall downstream procurement momentum is weak, PPI coal mining and laundering The industry selection ratio turned from positive to negative. In terms of metals, demand was flat, with the month-on-month increase in ferrous metal ore mining and processing narrowing, and the month-on-month increase in non-ferrous metal ore mining and processing turning from positive to negative; demand recovery after the holiday was slower than expected, and non-metallic ore prices fell back. It is expected that the CPI in March will fall slightly year-on-year, and the PPI will rebound year-on-year. From the perspective of CPI, the price of vegetables and pork in food items may fall seasonally in the short term, which may exert a certain drag on CPI in March; the core CPI in non-food items has continued for 3 consecutive months month-on-month. Month-on-month super seasonality has shown certain positive factors, coupled with the low base effect, the CPI may continue to rise moderately year-on-year in the second quarter. We initially expect the CPI in March to be around -0.4% month-on-month, and around 0.6% year-on-year, in 2024 The annual average year-on-year rate is in the range of 0%-1%. Commodity prices have been fluctuating recently. Powell's speech made it clear that interest rate cuts are expected to provide support to commodity prices within the year. The overall trend may show a rebound trend in the future. We expect that PPI will rebound year-on-year in March, and the average year-on-year average in 2024 will be -1% -0% range. In the medium and long term, as the three major projects of endogenous repair and demand are advanced, the physical workload increases, boosting consumer demand for goods and related raw materials, and the upward channel for prices may have opened. On the basis of endogenous repair, large-scale equipment updates will be promoted at the same time. With the reform of the price mechanism, CPI and PPI may have greater resilience than expected. Risk warning: Policy changes exceed expectations, and commodity prices fluctuate beyond expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('52a5389c-6434-575d-ad8f-dccb9d09cd11'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9067775700241327, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'D5B176IH2JSS6F3482BDCA4307VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:46 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'D5B176IH2JSS6F3482BDCA4307VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0b53b179-6850-5601-adad-4d65f08995f2'), 'title': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm employment data in February: The rise in the unemployment rate in a single month may have limited impact on the Fed’s current decision-making', 'author': 'He Ning, Pan Weizhen', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxvVjRIwrr4qgrLTSlvex4ZQ=', 'researcher': '何宁,潘纬桢', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332', '11000416632'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxvVjRIwrr4qgrLTSlvex4ZQ=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626189815_1.pdf?1710063152000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626189815_1.pdf?1710063152000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on U.S. non-farm employment data in February: The rise in the unemployment rate in a single month may have limited impact on the Fed’s current decision-making', 'originalAuthor': '何宁,潘纬桢', 'originalContent': '新增非农就业再超预期，平均薪资增速未再提升1.新增非农仍旧较强，但前值经历较大幅下修2月新增非农就业27.5万人，较1月份初值有所下降，但高于市场预期。1月、2023年12月新增非农就业累计下修16.7万。后续来看，2月份的新增非农就业或也会经历一定程度的下修。趋势上看，近3个月份平均新增就业26.5万人，较2023年11月-2024年1月有所上行。结构上看，私人部门新增就业有较大幅度提升，其中运输仓储、休闲和酒店业、教育和保健服务新增就业上升较多。2.劳动参与率维持不变，失业率意外上升，薪资增速下行2月美国劳动参与率录得62.5%，失业率为3.9%，失业率较1月份上升0.2个百分点。25-54岁区间劳动参与率小幅上行，当前主力劳动人群就业意愿还在提升。劳动参与率未变、失业率上行，或显示就业市场出现一定程度的冷却。2月美国非农就业时薪录得34.57美金，同比上升4.3%，环比上升0.1%，均较1月份下行，后续薪资增速有望进一步回落，但斜率尚存在不确定性。若失业率持续处于低位，薪资增速或仍将保持一定韧性，3.劳动力供需关系边际趋缓，劳动力市场再平衡的趋势未变从LOJTS数据来看，1月份职位空缺数为886.3万人，较2023年12月有所下降，职位空缺率为5.3%，与2023年12月持平。目前每个求职者对应约1.37个工作岗位，美国劳动力市场的供需紧张程度边际趋缓。职工主动离职率录得2.1%，较2023年12月份下降，或表明当前员工换工作的意愿尚在下降。单月数据对联储决策影响或有限，关注后续通胀数据我们认为，2月非农数据对当前美联储的决策影响或有限，相较于单月数据，美联储当前或更加关注就业数据的趋势性变化，还需密切关注后续通胀数据。第一，当前新增非农就业数量（机构调查）仍相对较高，即使考虑到潜在的下修压力，仍然高于美联储每月新增10-15万的合意水平。家庭调查显示失业率岁上升至3.9%，显示美国的就业市场出现一定程度的松弛，但当前的失业率仍处于历史上的较低区间。且根据CEA的评估，机构调查的数据可信度更高，因此后续失业率能否继续上升，同时新增就业数量继续下降，还有待观察；第二，我们从就业扩散指数以及每周工资总额指数（私人部门）两个指标来看，美国劳动力市场亦有相当的韧性。2月美国私人部门的就业扩散指数较1月份有所上升，同时私人非农部门的每周工资总额指数同比与环比增速均出现一定程度的反弹，显示当前美国就业市场的再平衡并非一帆风顺；最后，从上述数据来看，美国劳动力市场确实仍处于再平衡的过程之中，劳动力市场的供需关系亦在逐渐改善，但结合近期美联储官员的表态来看，其对于就业市场以及通胀数据的观察更多的是观察趋势性的变化，而非单月的数据波动，且会参考更多的经济指标。从这个角度看，2月份就业数据对美联储的当前的决策影响或有限，还需要密切关注后续发布的2月份的通胀数据。我们仍维持美联储将会在6月份进行第一次降息的判断，但再后的降息节奏与幅度会相对较灵活。风险提示：国际局势紧张引发通胀超预期。', 'content': \"New non-agricultural employment exceeded expectations again, and average wage growth did not increase. 1. New non-agricultural employment was still strong, but the previous value experienced a significant downward revision. There were 275,000 new non-agricultural employment in February, which was higher than the initial value in January. It was down, but higher than market expectations. The cumulative number of new non-agricultural employment in January and December 2023 was revised down to 167,000. Going forward, new non-agricultural employment in February may also experience a downward revision to a certain extent. Looking at the trend, the average number of new jobs in the past three months is 265,000, which is an increase from November 2023 to January 2024. From a structural point of view, the number of new jobs in the private sector has increased significantly, among which the number of new jobs in transportation and warehousing, leisure and hotel industries, education and health services has increased significantly. 2. The labor participation rate remained unchanged, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, and wage growth declined. In February, the U.S. labor participation rate was 62.5%, the unemployment rate was 3.9%, and the unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points from January. The labor participation rate in the 25-54 age range has increased slightly, and the current main working population's willingness to find employment is still increasing. The labor force participation rate remains unchanged and the unemployment rate rises, which may indicate a certain degree of cooling in the job market. In February, U.S. non-farm employment hourly wages were recorded at US$34.57, up 4.3% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, both down from January. Subsequent wage growth is expected to fall further, but there is still uncertainty about the slope. If the unemployment rate remains low, wage growth may still maintain a certain degree of resilience. 3. The marginal relationship between labor supply and demand has slowed down, and the trend of labor market rebalancing has not changed. According to LOJTS data, the number of job vacancies in January was 8.863 million. This is down from December 2023, with the vacancy rate at 5.3%, the same as December 2023. Currently, there are approximately 1.37 jobs for each job seeker, and the tightness of supply and demand in the U.S. labor market is slowing down at the margin. The employee voluntary turnover rate was recorded at 2.1%, which is lower than that in December 2023, which may indicate that the current willingness of employees to change jobs is still declining. The impact of single-month data on the Fed's decision-making may be limited. Focusing on subsequent inflation data, we believe that February's non-agricultural data may have a limited impact on the current Fed's decision-making. Compared with single-month data, the Fed may currently pay more attention to trend changes in employment data. We also need to pay close attention to subsequent inflation data. First, the current number of new non-farm jobs (agency survey) is still relatively high. Even taking into account potential downward revision pressure, it is still higher than the Fed's desired level of 100,000-150,000 new jobs per month. The household survey showed that the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% year-on-year, indicating that the U.S. job market has slackened to a certain extent, but the current unemployment rate is still in a historically low range. And according to CEA’s assessment, the data from institutional surveys are more credible, so it remains to be seen whether the unemployment rate can continue to rise while the number of new jobs continues to decline; secondly, we use the employment diffusion index and weekly total wages Judging from the two indicators of index (private sector), the U.S. labor market is also quite resilient. The employment diffusion index of the U.S. private sector rose in February compared with January. At the same time, the weekly wage index of the private non-agricultural sector rebounded to a certain extent year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating that the current rebalancing of the U.S. job market is not smooth sailing; Finally, judging from the above data, the U.S. labor market is indeed still in the process of rebalancing, and the supply and demand relationship in the labor market is gradually improving. However, combined with the recent statements of Federal Reserve officials, their observations on the job market and inflation data It focuses more on observing trend changes rather than single-month data fluctuations, and will refer to more economic indicators. From this perspective, the February employment data may have a limited impact on the Fed's current decision-making, and we need to pay close attention to the subsequent February inflation data. We still maintain the judgment that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in June, but the pace and magnitude of subsequent interest rate cuts will be relatively flexible. Risk warning: Tensions in the international situation trigger higher-than-expected inflation.\", 'authorid': UUID('d47cb679-02a6-5e72-a1c5-22a80f95708b'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9360332675278187, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'LSJ943GLM02NR4RI9O7KF7270JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'LSJ943GLM02NR4RI9O7KF7270JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('40050951-08c5-513b-a466-c6d563de665f'), 'title': 'The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued new climate disclosure rules, formally requiring listed companies to disclose climate risk information', 'author': 'Xie Xuecheng, Xiao Zhimin, Ma Zongming', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxhF3xwirdsf8jGk8LfZsfOU=', 'researcher': '解学成,肖志敏,马宗明', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172781', '11000447631', '11000447632'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxhF3xwirdsf8jGk8LfZsfOU=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626189789_1.pdf?1710068790000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626189789_1.pdf?1710068790000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued new climate disclosure rules, formally requiring listed companies to disclose climate risk information', 'originalAuthor': '解学成,肖志敏,马宗明', 'originalContent': '核心观点：事件：2024年3月6日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）宣布批准气候披露新规，这是SEC对于2022年3月发布的气候披露规范草案后的正式文件的发布。该新规首次要求上市公司在其年度报告和注册声明中披露关于业务所面临气候风险的信息，包括解决这些风险和应对极端天气事件可能带来的财务影响的计划，以及在一些特定情境下，公司运营所产生的温室气体排放。相比2022年的意见征求稿，新规终稿大幅放松了最初的披露要求。主要体现在最终版本不再要求上市公司披露范畴三排放，并且还对范畴一和二的要求进行了放宽。范畴一和范畴二的强制披露要求将仅适用于大型申报者，且仅当它们被认为具有实质性的时候。对于需要披露碳排放信息的公司，新规还提供了更多缓释时间，允许报告与第二季度财务报告一起提交，而不是与年度报告一起提交。还将披露范围1和2报告的披露时间推迟到2026年，并放宽和分阶段执行要求，这项要求也仅适用于大公司。SEC新规对不同类型公司进行不同时间节点的强制披露要求，并且提供了相应的过渡期。根据要求，大型公司要从2025财年开始披露相关信息，但对定量信息的披露给了1年过渡期，即从2026财年开始要求披露。中型公司和小型公司顺延一年。参考气候相关财务信息披露（TCFD）的披露要求，但更强调实质性。SEC新规延续了征求意见稿中的参考框架，即气候相关财务信息披露（TCFD）的披露要求，将披露框架拆分为五大模块：在管治（governance）方面，强制披露有关董事会对气候相关事宜的监督情况和管理层在评估和管理气候相关风险方面的作用。在战略（strategy）方面，发行人需要披露对其业务战略、运营结果或财务状况产生重大影响或可能产生重大影响的气候相关风险，并描述此类风险是在短期（未来12个月）或长期（未来12个月之后）出现。在风险管理（risk management）方面，发行人只需要披露与重大气候风险有关的风险识别、评估和管理流程，并且只有当发行人正在管理某项重大气候风险时，才需要披露如何将此融入全面风险管理体系。在目标（targets and goals）方面，发行人也仅仅需要披露已经或有合理可能性对其产生重要影响的气候目标。在温室气体排放指标（GHG emissions metrics）方面，发行人仅仅在范围1或范围2温室气体排放量具有重要性时，才需要披露此数据。SEC新规更强调重要性/实质性，大量披露要求只有在发行人已经涉及或认为已经或可能产生重大影响时才需要披露。风险提示：美国证券交易委员会（SEC）气候相关信息披露规则实施不及预期的风险。', 'content': 'Core point of view: Event: On March 6, 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the approval of new climate disclosure regulations. This is the release of the SEC’s official document following the draft climate disclosure regulations released in March 2022. The new regulations require for the first time that listed companies disclose information about the climate risks faced by their businesses in their annual reports and registration statements, including plans to address these risks and respond to the possible financial impacts of extreme weather events, and, under certain scenarios, Greenhouse gas emissions from company operations. Compared with the 2022 solicitation draft, the final draft of the new regulations has significantly relaxed the initial disclosure requirements. This is mainly reflected in the fact that the final version no longer requires listed companies to disclose scope 3 emissions, and it also relaxes the requirements for scopes 1 and 2. Mandatory disclosure requirements for Scope 1 and 2 will only apply to large filers and only if they are deemed to be material. The new rules also provide additional relief for companies required to disclose carbon emissions information, allowing reports to be submitted with second-quarter financial reports rather than with annual reports. It also postpones the disclosure of scope 1 and 2 reports to 2026 and relaxes and stages implementation requirements. This requirement also only applies to large companies. The new SEC regulations impose mandatory disclosure requirements on different types of companies at different time points and provide corresponding transition periods. According to the requirements, large companies must begin to disclose relevant information from fiscal year 2025, but there is a one-year transition period for the disclosure of quantitative information, that is, disclosure will be required from fiscal year 2026. Medium-sized companies and small companies will be postponed for one year. Reference to the disclosure requirements of Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), but with a greater emphasis on materiality. The SEC’s new regulations continue the reference framework in the consultation draft, that is, the disclosure requirements for climate-related financial information disclosure (TCFD), and split the disclosure framework into five major modules: In terms of governance, mandatory disclosure of the board’s climate-related financial information disclosure requirements oversight of matters and management’s role in assessing and managing climate-related risks. On the strategy side, issuers are required to disclose climate-related risks that have a material impact or are likely to have a material impact on their business strategy, operating results or financial position, and describe whether such risks are in the short term (next 12 months) or the long term. (12 months into the future). In terms of risk management, issuers only need to disclose risk identification, assessment and management processes related to material climate risks, and only when the issuer is managing a material climate risk, they need to disclose how this is integrated into the overall Risk management system. In terms of targets and goals, issuers are only required to disclose climate goals that have or are reasonably likely to have a significant impact on them. In terms of GHG emissions metrics, issuers are only required to disclose this data if Scope 1 or 2 GHG emissions are material. The new SEC regulations place more emphasis on importance/substantiality, and a large number of disclosure requirements are only required when the issuer has been involved or believes that it has or may have a significant impact. Risk warning: There is a risk that the implementation of climate-related information disclosure rules of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will not be as expected.', 'authorid': UUID('d8875296-2ffa-5c22-9a14-badeb3db625c'), 'sentimentScore': 0.04161009844392538, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '58IJUL3NS4FDU2V78R6O3BVDHFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '58IJUL3NS4FDU2V78R6O3BVDHFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7acc5543-baa7-5256-a99b-5a134d6ad7e5'), 'title': 'PPI improvement is not as good as expected, waiting for policies to take effect', 'author': 'Xu Dongshi, Lu Lei', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxtzsNx7ZoKkja/ng4OZL6+w=', 'researcher': '许冬石,吕雷', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000185520', '11000443769'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxtzsNx7ZoKkja/ng4OZL6+w=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626189769_1.pdf?1710064959000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626189769_1.pdf?1710064959000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'PPI improvement is not as good as expected, waiting for policies to take effect', 'originalAuthor': '许冬石,吕雷', 'originalContent': '主要结论：2月CPI同比上涨0.7%（前值-0.8%），主要受春节错月效应影响，环比上行1.0%（前值0.3%），其中翘尾因素影响为-0.6%，新涨价因素影响为1.3%。PPI同比-2.7%，环比下降0.2%。服务价格带动CPI环比超预期上行，下游需求恢复缓慢拖累PPI改善服务价格超预期上行，交通工具使用维修和旅游是主要贡献项。非食品中，服务价格上涨1.0%，处于过去十年中的最高值位置，主要源于交通工具使用维修和旅游价格的快速上涨。受国际油价上行影响，2月交通工具燃料环比同样上涨1.9%。值得注意的是家庭服务价格春节期间意外下行���食品中，鲜菜和猪肉价格分别上涨12.7%和7.2%，2月猪肉和鲜菜的超预期涨幅带动食品项上涨较多。PPI环比延续下行，上游石油相关行业价格上涨，中游的设备和下游的消费品价格走低。国际原油价格上行，带动国内石油相关行业价格上涨，其中石油和天然气开采、黑色金属矿、中游的石油、煤炭及燃料加工业、化学纤维、有色金属冶炼等价格上行。受春节假日房地产、基建项目停工等因素影响，钢材、水泥等行业需求减少，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、水泥制造价格下降。受部分行业产能过剩的影响，中游设备的锂离子电池制造、新能源车整车制造、计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业价格下行。我们的分析：春节带动了CPI回升，PPI回暖需要政策支持2月CPI环比涨幅超预期主要受蔬菜、交通和旅游项贡献。后续猪肉价格短期内难以回升，蔬菜在不出现极端天气扰动的情况下，预计后续价格总体走势符合季节性特征。2月旅游价格更是创下10年来最高涨幅，释放出消费需求修复的信号。2月PPI环比延续回落，3月是工业企业复工复产高峰，市场需求将转旺，将带动工业品需求上行，从而带动黑色金属、有色金属及非金属建材等市场回暖。此外，今年政府工作报告内容显示，财政政策的“适度加力”进一步显现，内需的企稳回升有望支撑未来价格的稳定走高。整体上CPI二季度转正、PPI三季度转正3月份CPI的翘尾因素1.0%左右，新涨价因素在-0.9%左右，同比预计0.1%左右。随后物价会进入正常波动区间，居民生活消费的稳定小幅支撑CPI。3月份PPI的翘尾因素在-2.4%左右，这将拖累PPI的回升势头，新涨价因素在0.1%左右，同比预计收窄至-2.3%左右。在房地产疲软的情况下，出口形势好转给与PPI支撑，政府支持项目的加快建设有望成为带动PPI环比上行的贡献力量。我们预计1季度CPI和PPI增速分别为0%和-2.5%，全年分别预计在0.7%和-0.6%左右运行。整体节奏上，预计CPI二季度转正、PPI三季度转正。风险提示：1.房地产持续回落的风险2.大宗商品大幅下行的风险', 'content': \"Main conclusion: CPI in February increased by 0.7% year-on-year (previous value -0.8%), mainly affected by the Spring Festival's staggered month effect, rising by 1.0% month-on-month (previous value 0.3%), of which the impact of tail-over factors was -0.6%, and the new price increase The factor impact is 1.3%. PPI was -2.7% year-on-year, down 0.2% month-on-month. Service prices drove the CPI to rise more than expected on a month-on-month basis. The slow recovery of downstream demand dragged down PPI improvement. Service prices rose more than expected. The use and maintenance of transportation vehicles and tourism were the main contributors. Among non-food items, service prices increased by 1.0%, the highest level in the past decade, mainly due to the rapid increase in transportation use and maintenance and travel prices. Affected by the rise in international oil prices, transportation fuel also increased by 1.9% month-on-month in February. It is worth noting that home service prices unexpectedly dropped during the Spring Festival. Among foods, the prices of fresh vegetables and pork increased by 12.7% and 7.2% respectively. The unexpected increase in pork and fresh vegetables in February led to a larger increase in food items. PPI continued to decline month-on-month, prices in upstream petroleum-related industries increased, and prices of midstream equipment and downstream consumer goods fell. The increase in international crude oil prices has driven up prices in domestic petroleum-related industries, including oil and natural gas mining, ferrous metal mines, midstream petroleum, coal and fuel processing industries, chemical fibers, and non-ferrous metal smelting. Affected by factors such as the suspension of real estate and infrastructure projects during the Spring Festival holiday, demand in industries such as steel and cement decreased, and prices in the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and cement manufacturing fell. Affected by overcapacity in some industries, prices for lithium-ion battery manufacturing for midstream equipment, new energy vehicle manufacturing, computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing have fallen. Our analysis: The Spring Festival has driven a rebound in CPI, and PPI recovery requires policy support. The month-on-month increase in CPI in February exceeded expectations, mainly due to contributions from vegetables, transportation and tourism. It will be difficult for pork prices to rebound in the short term. Unless extreme weather disturbances occur, the overall price trend of vegetables is expected to be in line with seasonal characteristics. In February, travel prices hit the highest level in 10 years, signaling a recovery in consumer demand. The PPI continued to fall month-on-month in February. March is the peak month for industrial enterprises to resume work and production. Market demand will turn strong, which will drive upward demand for industrial products, thereby driving a recovery in markets such as ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals and non-metallic building materials. In addition, this year’s government work report shows that the “moderate strengthening” of fiscal policy has further emerged, and the stabilization and recovery of domestic demand is expected to support the stable rise of prices in the future. Overall, when CPI turned positive in the second quarter and PPI turned positive in the third quarter, the tailing factor of CPI in March was about 1.0%, and the new price increase factor was about -0.9%, which is expected to be about 0.1% year-on-year. Prices will then enter a normal fluctuation range, and the stability of residents' daily consumption will slightly support CPI. The tail-up factor of PPI in March was around -2.4%, which will drag down the recovery momentum of PPI. The new price increase factor was around 0.1%, which is expected to narrow to around -2.3% year-on-year. In the case of weak real estate, the improved export situation has given support to PPI, and the accelerated construction of government-supported projects is expected to contribute to the upward trend of PPI on a month-on-month basis. We estimate that the CPI and PPI growth rates in the first quarter will be 0% and -2.5% respectively, and the full-year growth rates are expected to be around 0.7% and -0.6% respectively. In terms of overall rhythm, it is expected that CPI will turn positive in the second quarter and PPI will turn positive in the third quarter. Risk warning: 1. The risk of a continued decline in real estate 2. The risk of a sharp decline in commodities\", 'authorid': UUID('470e8441-710b-59d0-89ec-ecf774931dc4'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9276784025132656, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '2BEENL9KAILBVASH81QMAHU3JVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:54 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '2BEENL9KAILBVASH81QMAHU3JVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e837d43d-16bc-59e1-b2f0-24bf2ee97141'), 'title': 'U.S. labor market data for February: New job creation exceeded expectations, but the previous value was revised sharply, and a mid-year interest rate cut is still expected', 'author': 'Zhang Jun , Yu Jintong', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxpiE0TtY00PsgXHyxMZuctY=', 'researcher': '章俊,于金潼', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000440456'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxpiE0TtY00PsgXHyxMZuctY=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626186212_1.pdf?1710066270000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626186212_1.pdf?1710066270000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. labor market data for February: New job creation exceeded expectations, but the previous value was revised sharply, and a mid-year interest rate cut is still expected', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,于金潼', 'originalContent': '新增非农就业强于预期但前值下调， 失业率升至3.9%，时薪环比缓和： 单位调查（ establishment survey）方面， 1月新增非农就业27.5万人， 超过20万人的市场预期， 仍高于2016-2019年新增就业均值18.1万人； 同时， 1月份新增非农就业从35.3万人大幅下修至22.9万人， 12月从33.3万人下修至29.0万人。 非农时薪增速有所放缓， 1月同比增长4.28%，环比0.15%， 三月均环比降至0.33%。 家庭调查（ household survey）方面，失业率从1月的3.7%升至3.9%， 高于预期的3.7%但仍在历史低位；劳动参与率继续维持62.5%，和前值持平， 55岁及以上参与率保持38.5%， 25-54岁参与率略升至83.5%。 1月兼职就业增加和全职就业减少，累计兼职工作人数同比增速升至3.41%，累计全职工作人数同比增速降至-0.21%。 在经历了1月BLS年度调整的动荡后， 2月干扰更少的单位调查数据显示虽然劳动市场依然处于不弱的状态， 但再度加速并助力二次通胀的风险并不高， 薪资增速的三月均值也重回缓慢弱化的轨道。 因此， 美国经济“软着陆” 的概率依然较大，对降息的时点和幅度不宜过分悲观。一季度就业数据与2023年同期有相似之处： 在1月新增非农就业经历了惯例性的修正后， 2月对1月数据进行了明显的下修， 符合预期。 值得注意的是， 2023年1季度的非农就业情况���目前有些相似：（ 1） 在年初调整后， 1、 2月数据整体偏强， 后期出现下修；（ 2） 服务需求依然坚挺， 帮助失业率保持较低位置。 总体上， 虽然劳动市场明显加速的担忧在2月数据后应当有所降低， 但就业的韧性意味着经济难以快速下行， 通胀的回落也不是一帆风顺的。 结构方面， 商品生产相关的就业稳中略降，服务业继续扩张。劳动数据中的五个要点： （ 1） 年初数据修正的影响过后， 1月数据出现明显的下调较为符合预期。 同时， 2月劳动市场在服务业的支撑下保持了稳中偏强的状态。 需要注意的是， 家庭调查中全职就业延续下行和失业人口的抬升预示劳动市场还在逐步弱化， 尽管韧性仍强。 （ 2） 薪资增速环比缓和一方面受到高环比基数影响， 但也表明近期环比靠近0.3%且没有进一步加速， 这可以降低对薪资回暖带动通胀回升的担忧。 以此增速推导， 时薪同比增速在2024年三季度有望达到与2%通胀目标更匹配的3.5%下方， 美联储在年中降息值得期待。 （ 3）失业率从低位回升， 在劳动人口小幅增长的情况下， 2月失业人口明显增加34万人， 是失业率上升0.2%至3.9%的主因。 （ 4） 1月职位空缺数有微小回落， 职位空缺率基本持平， 2月平均周工时也小幅回升至34.3小时， 表明劳动市场暂不具备明显恶化的基础， 需求侧偏强。 （ 5）综合来看， 虽然新增就业和失业率的数据有所分化， 但2月数据显示劳动市场不存在加速的风险且仍具韧性， “软着陆” 可能保持的同时， 也不会促使美联储考虑继续延后降息。 虽然按季节性规律， 2月的CPI可能不会明显弱化， 但美联储二季度末进行货币政策转向还是我们的基准假设。市场从“ 不着陆” 预期再次切换向“ 软着陆” ： 市场方面并没有对新增非农强于预期做过多解读， 失业率的上行和非农前值下修显示降息不会特别遥远。 美国国债收益率震荡下行， 2年期降3.2BP至4.482， 10年期降0.8BP至4.080；美元指数跌0.06%至102.7420；三大股指收跌。 市场在1月偏强通胀、 劳动市场和经济数据公布后进行了一段时间“紧缩延续” 的交易， 对美联储全年降息幅度的调整也相对趋于合理。 市场在“不着陆、 不降息” 和“软着陆、 年中降息” 预期之间的往返预计仍是导致市场震荡的主线。 鲍威尔近期暗示年中降息依然有不低的概率， 短期偏宽松的预期也利好了黄金价格； 在日央行终于接近退出负利率的时点之下， 美元可能还存在一定小幅走弱的动力。', 'content': 'New non-agricultural employment was stronger than expected, but the previous value was lowered. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, and hourly wages eased month-on-month: In terms of establishment survey, 275,000 new non-agricultural jobs were added in January, exceeding 200,000 in the market. It is expected that it is still higher than the average of 181,000 new jobs from 2016 to 2019; at the same time, the number of new non-agricultural jobs in January was sharply revised down from 353,000 to 229,000, and in December from 333,000 to 290,000. . The growth rate of non-agricultural hourly wages has slowed down, with a year-on-year increase of 4.28% in January and a month-on-month increase of 0.15%. The average month-on-month increase in March fell to 0.33%. In terms of household survey (household survey), the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.7% in January, higher than the expected 3.7% but still at a historically low level; the labor force participation rate continued to remain at 62.5%, the same as the previous value, 55 years and above The participation rate remained at 38.5%, and the participation rate among those aged 25-54 increased slightly to 83.5%. In January, part-time employment increased and full-time employment decreased. The cumulative number of part-time workers increased by 3.41% year-on-year, and the cumulative number of full-time workers increased by -0.21% year-on-year. After experiencing the turmoil of the BLS annual adjustment in January, less disruptive unit survey data in February showed that although the labor market is still not weak, the risk of accelerating again and contributing to secondary inflation is not high. The wage growth rate is The March average is also back on track to slowly weakening. Therefore, the probability of a \"soft landing\" for the U.S. economy is still high, and we should not be overly pessimistic about the timing and extent of interest rate cuts. There are similarities between the employment data in the first quarter and the same period in 2023: After the new non-farm employment experienced the customary revision in January, the January data was significantly downwardly revised in February, in line with expectations. It is worth noting that the non-agricultural employment situation in the first quarter of 2023 is somewhat similar to the current situation: (1) After adjustments at the beginning of the year, the data in January and February were generally strong, with downward revisions in the later period; (2) Service demand remains strong, helping Unemployment remains low. Generally speaking, although concerns about a significant acceleration in the labor market should be reduced after the February data, the resilience of employment means that the economy will not be able to decline quickly, and the fall in inflation will not be smooth sailing. In terms of structure, employment related to commodity production was stable and slightly decreased, and the service industry continued to expand. Five key points in the labor data: (1) After the impact of the data revision at the beginning of the year, the obvious downward revision of the January data is more in line with expectations. At the same time, the labor market remained stable and relatively strong in February, supported by the service industry. It should be noted that the continued decline in full-time employment and the rise in the unemployed population in household surveys indicate that the labor market is still gradually weakening, although the resilience is still strong. (2) The month-on-month moderation in wage growth is partly affected by the high month-on-month base, but it also shows that the recent month-on-month growth rate is close to 0.3% and has not accelerated further, which can reduce concerns about a rebound in inflation driven by rising wages. Based on this growth rate, the year-on-year growth rate of hourly wages is expected to reach below 3.5% in the third quarter of 2024, which is more consistent with the 2% inflation target. It is worth looking forward to the Fed\\'s interest rate cut in the middle of the year. (3) The unemployment rate rebounded from a low level. With the labor force growing slightly, the number of unemployed people increased significantly by 340,000 in February, which was the main reason for the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2% to 3.9%. (4) The number of job vacancies fell slightly in January, the job vacancy rate was basically the same, and the average weekly working hours in February also rose slightly to 34.3 hours, indicating that the labor market does not have the foundation for significant deterioration for the time being, and the demand side is strong. (5) Taken together, although the data on new jobs and unemployment rate are somewhat divergent, the February data shows that there is no risk of acceleration in the labor market and is still resilient. While the \"soft landing\" may be maintained, it will not prompt The Federal Reserve considers delaying further interest rate cuts. Although the CPI in February may not weaken significantly according to seasonal patterns, the Fed\\'s monetary policy shift at the end of the second quarter is still our baseline assumption. The market has once again switched from \"no landing\" expectations to \"soft landing\": the market did not interpret too much on the stronger-than-expected new non-farm payrolls. The upward revision of the unemployment rate and the downward revision of the pre-non-farm payrolls indicate that an interest rate cut is not particularly far away. U.S. Treasury bond yields fluctuated downward, with the 2-year bond falling by 3.2 BP to 4.482 and the 10-year bond falling by 0.8 BP to 4.080; the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.06% to 102.7420; the three major stock indexes closed lower. The market conducted a period of \"continuation of tightening\" trading after the release of strong inflation, labor market and economic data in January, and the Fed\\'s adjustment to the full-year interest rate cut became relatively reasonable. The market\\'s back and forth between expectations of \"no landing, no interest rate cut\" and \"soft landing, mid-year interest rate cut\" is expected to remain the main thread causing market shocks. Powell recently hinted that there is still a high probability of a mid-year interest rate cut, and expectations of short-term easing are also good for gold prices; as the Bank of Japan is finally close to exiting negative interest rates, the U.S. dollar may still have some momentum to weaken slightly.', 'authorid': UUID('aade9e7c-af7e-5d53-a8f5-2d3af8826809'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9217869937419891, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'K5R6MB17FJT83FR7RPR01I4K6BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:57 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'K5R6MB17FJT83FR7RPR01I4K6BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f6491587-3c34-5044-afd3-5dc9309b3f79'), 'title': 'Inflation in February: Spring Festival effect helped CPI take the lead in returning to positive levels', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxmupEn7uBc1y3R8Z0o81pHk=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxmupEn7uBc1y3R8Z0o81pHk=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626186036_1.pdf?1710064574000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626186036_1.pdf?1710064574000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Inflation in February: Spring Festival effect helped CPI take the lead in returning to positive levels', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '事件：2月CPI同比翻正至0.7%（预期0.4%），环比上涨1.0%；2月PPI同比回落至-2.7%（预期-2.5%），环比下降0.2%。1-2月CPI同比波动基本符合春节季节性。从历史上看，1-2月CPI的同比变动与春节距元旦的日期存在相关性（图1），而今年的数据也落在趋势线附近，符合晚春通胀“一月低，二月高”的特征。2月CPI受此影响下结束连续四个月的同比负增，回正至0.7%。分项来看，春节效应带动食品普涨，服务价格韧性较强。食品方面，2月食品价格环比涨3.3%，同比降0.9%，春节需求脉冲式增加，部分地区雨雪天气影响供给，猪肉、果蔬等食品的节前涨价是CPI环比上涨的主要贡献，但食品价格同比仍未转正。非食品方面，2月油价连续上调，交通工具燃料价格同比由1月的-0.1%转正至2月的0.8%；假期居民旅游出行客单价创新高，带动服务价格涨超季节性，2月旅游、飞机票和交通工具租赁费价格同比分别上涨23.1%、20.8%和17.4%，并支撑2月核心CPI同比跳升至1.2%。往后看，2月的涨价因素难以持续，预计3-5月CPI同比回落至0.3%水平。一是节后猪肉消费需求退坡，供给充足下猪价难见大涨，其他农产品节后供大于求的局面预计也将短期持续；二是3-4月假期与电商活动偏少，居民出行与耐用品消费进入传统淡季，消费品以旧换新政策有望成为耐用品再通胀的着力点。按照CPI环比历史季节性，我们预计3-5月CPI同比将回落至0.3%水平，核心CPI表现预计回归平稳。PPI环比连续第四个月下降，同比因基数效应退坡，回落至-2.7%。内部需求不足仍是价格回落的主因：节后复工开工节奏不及去年同期，2月下旬水泥产能利用率与沥青开工率都位于历史同期低位，且2月新房销售数据平淡，导向基建与地产施工进度偏缓。分项来看，国际原油价格上行带动国内油气行业涨价，为2月PPI环比的主要拉动；受假期传统地产与基建项目停工影响，2月黑色冶炼压延与水泥制造价格环比回落；中游新兴制造产业供给压力不减，2月锂离子电池制造、新能源车整车制造价格环比分别下降0.5%、0.4%。目前来看PPI同比上行回正的难度要大于CPI，短期涨价可能需依靠海外原油上涨输入。风险提示：政策出台节奏及项目落地放缓导致经济复苏偏慢；海外经济体提前显著进入衰退，国内出口超预期萎缩。', 'content': 'Event: CPI in February corrected to 0.7% year-on-year (0.4% expected), up 1.0% month-on-month; PPI fell back to -2.7% year-on-year in February (-2.5% expected), down 0.2% month-on-month. The year-on-year CPI fluctuations from January to February are basically in line with the Spring Festival seasonality. Historically, there is a correlation between the year-on-year changes in CPI from January to February and the date between the Spring Festival and New Year\\'s Day (Figure 1), and this year\\'s data also falls near the trend line, which is in line with the late spring inflation \"low in January and high in February\" Characteristics. Affected by this, the CPI in February ended four consecutive months of negative year-on-year growth and returned to 0.7%. In terms of items, the Spring Festival effect has led to a general increase in food prices, and service prices are highly resilient. In terms of food, food prices in February increased by 3.3% month-on-month and fell 0.9% year-on-year. Demand increased during the Spring Festival, and rain and snow weather affected supply in some areas. Pre-holiday price increases of pork, fruits and vegetables and other foods were the main contributors to the month-on-month increase in CPI. However, Food prices have not yet turned positive year-on-year. In terms of non-food, oil prices continued to rise in February, and transportation fuel prices turned positive from -0.1% in January to 0.8% in February; unit prices for residents traveling during the holidays hit a new high, driving service prices to rise beyond seasonality. Tourism in February , air ticket and transportation rental prices increased by 23.1%, 20.8% and 17.4% respectively year-on-year, and supported the core CPI to jump to 1.2% year-on-year in February. Looking forward, the price increase factors in February will be difficult to sustain, and the CPI is expected to fall back to 0.3% year-on-year from March to May. First, the demand for pork consumption declined after the holiday. It is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to sufficient supply. The oversupply of other agricultural products after the holiday is expected to continue in the short term; second, there were few holidays and e-commerce activities in March and April, and residents Travel and durable goods consumption have entered the traditional off-season, and the trade-in policy for consumer goods is expected to become the focus of durable goods reflation. According to the historical seasonality of CPI on a month-on-month basis, we expect that the CPI will fall back to 0.3% year-on-year from March to May, and the core CPI performance is expected to return to stability. PPI fell for the fourth consecutive month month-on-month, and fell back to -2.7% year-on-year due to the base effect. Insufficient internal demand is still the main reason for the price drop: the pace of resumption of work after the holiday is slower than that of the same period last year. In late February, the cement production capacity utilization rate and asphalt operating rate were at historical lows for the same period, and new home sales data in February were flat, which led to the progress of infrastructure and real estate construction. Slow. In terms of items, the rise in international crude oil prices drove up the domestic oil and gas industry\\'s price increases, which was the main driver of February\\'s PPI month-on-month; affected by the suspension of traditional real estate and infrastructure projects during the holidays, black smelting, rolling and cement manufacturing prices fell month-on-month in February; midstream emerging manufacturing The pressure on industrial supply remains unabated. In February, the prices of lithium-ion battery manufacturing and new energy vehicle manufacturing fell by 0.5% and 0.4% month-on-month respectively. At present, it seems that it is more difficult for PPI to return to positive year-on-year growth than for CPI. Short-term price increases may need to rely on rising overseas crude oil input. Risk warning: The slowdown in the pace of policy introduction and project implementation has led to a slow economic recovery; overseas economies have entered recession significantly ahead of schedule, and domestic exports have shrunk more than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8795835226774216, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'C81HRJ6C2TRCUVEDOKI94V9A6FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:52:59 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'C81HRJ6C2TRCUVEDOKI94V9A6FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d2a681d0-7d4e-5061-9d51-6df8b8d50bd7'), 'title': 'Macro Commentary: Narrative of Non-Farm Rate Cut in February', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-10', 'encodeUrl': 'OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxgZ6jlOpiO6uq5L0Z2ufEkY=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=OosnrsyyXPmhskuZqWLZxgZ6jlOpiO6uq5L0Z2ufEkY=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626066090_1.pdf?1710064574000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403091626066090_1.pdf?1710064574000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Commentary: Narrative of Non-Farm Rate Cut in February', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '鲍威尔对美国劳动力市场的态度刚稍显“松懈”（1月末的时候鲍威尔称就业市场为“紧张”（tight），本周三的半年度国会作证的表态对劳动力市场的看法转为了“相对紧张”（relativelytight）），随即2月的新增非农就业就泼了一盆“冷水”—10年期美债收益率短线飙升6bp。但结合修正数据来看，这一份就业报告其实整体偏鸽：一是过去两个月新增非农就业人数修正明显，去年12月和今年1月的就业人数合计比之前报告的减少16.7万人；二是失业率意外上涨，从1月的3.7%涨至3.9%。市场打消了就业仍在增长的疑虑—美股涨，美元跌。纵观劳动力市场，虽然美国用工紧张蔓延在各行各业的情况似乎有所好转，但从结构上看，劳动力市场的“再平衡”似乎是任重而道远的。具体来看：新增非农就业上涨集中在三个部门：医疗保健服务、政府和建筑业。具体来���，所有行业中只有制造业就业回落，服务业就业人数增长仍未最为显著的行业，2月达20.4万人，为本月最高，教育和保健服务、休闲和酒店业的新增就业增长是该类就业上升的主要因素。从职位空缺数据来看，目前教育及卫生服务依然是职位空缺最多的行业，劳动力供需的紧张。失业率飙升受家庭就业疲软所致。整体来看，2月美国参与率实际上略低于预期的62.5%，因此失业率飙升更多的是因为就业人数减少所致。美国住户调查显示2月份就业人数减少18.4万人。除此之外从结构上看：性别上，值此国际妇女节之际，女性的失业率攀升0.3%，达到3.5%，而男性的失业率则有所下降。族裔上，当劳动力市场发生变化时，少数民族社区通常首先受到最严重的冲击：2月白人的失业率保持在3.4%，但非洲裔的失业率却上升了0.3%，达到5.6%。企业“瘦身”，裁员与缩招同步进行。一方面，企业裁员仍在进行中：2月美国企业计划裁员84,638人，较1月继续增加3%，同比则增长9%，达到自2009年全球金融危机结束以来最高同月水平。另一方面，企业招聘计划也在放缓，企业雇佣计划指数不断下降。2月份雇主宣布计划招聘10,317名员工，这是自2009年挑战者公司开始跟踪招聘计划以来，宣布的招聘计划总数最低的一年。从行业来看，今年以来科技和金融是受影响最严重的行业：根据《纽约时报》2月5日报道，经过一年的大规模裁员后，科技行业最大型公司的裁员潮到2024年第一个月仍未停歇。互联网公司中Google,Amazon，微软，Ebay等都在纷纷裁员，人工智能抢走美国大厂员工“饭碗”。金融行业的BlackRock，花旗等也在裁员大潮之列。公司裁员的前5大原因则是重组、倒闭、成本以及经济和市场。薪资同比增速未见明显放缓，平均时薪增速仍高达4.3%。工资水平是美联储密切关注并视为是否会增加通胀压力的信号。具体来看，2月平均薪资同比上涨4.3%，相较于此前并未大幅放缓。虽然2月平均薪资环比仅上涨0.14%，较上个月的数据明显下降。但今年到目前为止，薪资环比平均增长0.3%，相较于去年全年平均0.35%的增幅并未明显走弱。跳槽员工薪资未见明显下滑，增速已达5.6%，远远超出美联储2%的通胀目标水平。美国就业市场的机会仍旧较多，跳槽员工的薪资3个月移动平均增速基本保持在5.6%，自去年下半年以来未见明显降速。就业增长距离达到“首降”还有一段路，从历史的角度来看，新增非农就业的人数至少达到在10万人左右低位徘徊，才能达到首次降息的门槛。虽然2月新增非农就业人数较1月有所下滑，但一方面是1月数据往往波动较大，有较大的干扰性；另一方面则是其放缓的下行趋势尚未确立。因此由历史经历来看，美联储开始降息所需的新增非农就业至少要达到10万人，而这在当前劳动力供需尚未大幅缓解的情况下是一个很高的门槛。往后看如果就业能够连续“下台阶”，在半年内达到上述门槛，那么我们预计美联储会在今年三季度开始降息。风险提示：全球通胀超预期上行，美国经济提前进入显著衰退，巴以冲突局势失控，美国银行危机再起金融风险暴。', 'content': 'Powell\\'s attitude towards the U.S. labor market has just become slightly \"loose\" (at the end of January, Powell called the job market \"tight\"). In his semi-annual congressional testimony on Wednesday, his view of the labor market changed to \"relatively tight\". \"(relativelytight)), and then the new non-farm employment in February poured a basin of \"cold water\" - the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged 6bp in the short term. However, combined with the revised data, this employment report is actually dovish overall: First, the number of new non-farm jobs has been significantly revised in the past two months. The total number of jobs in December last year and January this year was 167,000 less than the previous report. Second, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, from 3.7% in January to 3.9%. The market dispelled doubts that employment was still growing - U.S. stocks rose and the dollar fell. Looking at the labor market, although the spread of labor shortages in various industries in the United States seems to have improved, from a structural point of view, the \"rebalancing\" of the labor market seems to have a long way to go. Specifically: The increase in new non-farm employment was concentrated in three sectors: health care services, government and construction. Specifically, among all industries, only manufacturing employment has declined. The service industry has not yet seen the most significant employment growth. It reached 204,000 in February, the highest number this month. New employment in education and health services, leisure and hospitality industries Growth is the main factor behind this rise in employment. Judging from job vacancy data, education and health services are still the industries with the most job vacancies, and labor supply and demand are tight. The surge in unemployment was driven by weak household employment. Overall, the U.S. participation rate in February was actually slightly lower than the expected 62.5%, so the surge in the unemployment rate was more due to the reduction in the number of employed people. The U.S. household survey showed that employment fell by 184,000 people in February. In addition, from a structural point of view: In terms of gender, on the occasion of International Women\\'s Day, the unemployment rate of women increased by 0.3% to 3.5%, while the unemployment rate of men decreased. Ethnically, when the labor market changes, minority communities are often hardest hit first: the unemployment rate for whites remained at 3.4% in February, but the unemployment rate for African Americans rose 0.3% to 5.6%. Enterprises are \"downsizing\", with layoffs and employment cuts happening simultaneously. On the one hand, corporate layoffs are still ongoing: U.S. companies plan to lay off 84,638 people in February, a 3% increase from January and a year-on-year increase of 9%, reaching the highest level in the same month since the end of the global financial crisis in 2009. On the other hand, corporate recruitment plans are also slowing down, and the corporate hiring plan index continues to decline. Employers announced plans to hire 10,317 employees in February, the lowest total since challenger companies began tracking hiring plans in 2009. From an industry perspective, technology and finance have been the most severely affected industries this year: According to a report by the New York Times on February 5, after a year of large-scale layoffs, the wave of layoffs at the largest companies in the technology industry will reach the end of 2024. It hasn’t stopped for a month. Internet companies such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Ebay are all laying off employees, and artificial intelligence is taking away the jobs of employees in major American companies. BlackRock, Citigroup, etc. in the financial industry are also among the wave of layoffs. The top five reasons for company layoffs are restructuring, bankruptcy, costs, and the economy and market. The year-on-year wage growth has not slowed down significantly, and the average hourly wage growth is still as high as 4.3%. Wage levels are something the Fed watches closely as a sign of whether it could add to inflationary pressures. Specifically, average wages in February increased by 4.3% year-on-year, which did not slow down significantly compared to before. Although the average salary in February only increased by 0.14% month-on-month, it was a significant decrease from last month\\'s data. However, so far this year, wages have increased by an average of 0.3% month-on-month, which is not significantly weaker than the average increase of 0.35% for the whole of last year. The wages of employees who changed jobs have not seen a significant decline, and the growth rate has reached 5.6%, far exceeding the Federal Reserve\\'s 2% inflation target level. There are still many opportunities in the U.S. job market, and the three-month moving average growth rate of wages for job-hopping employees has basically remained at 5.6%, with no significant slowdown since the second half of last year. There is still some way to go before employment growth reaches the \"first drop.\" From a historical perspective, the number of new non-agricultural jobs needs to hover at least around 100,000 to reach the threshold for the first interest rate cut. Although the number of new non-farm payrolls in February declined compared with January, on the one hand, January data tend to fluctuate greatly and are highly disruptive; on the other hand, its downward trend of slowing has not yet been established. Therefore, judging from historical experience, the number of new non-farm jobs required for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates must reach at least 100,000, which is a high threshold when the current labor supply and demand have not significantly eased. Looking forward, if employment can continue to \"step down\" and reach the above threshold within half a year, then we expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in the third quarter of this year. Risk warning: Global inflation is rising faster than expected, the U.S. economy has entered a significant recession ahead of schedule, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is out of control, and the U.S. banking crisis has triggered financial risks again.', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8203812949359417, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'JQNK6KN2CGCV06T9MPA30EGOUFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:53:06 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'JQNK6KN2CGCV06T9MPA30EGOUFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1e1c855c-ff9c-573b-9b05-88bb36df88e6'), 'title': 'High-tech Manufacturing Macro Weekly Report: Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index fell slightly', 'author': 'Shao Xingyu, Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xcDVa0aaEKK/TXIE9e18Pi0=', 'researcher': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257974', '11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xcDVa0aaEKK/TXIE9e18Pi0=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626050402_1.pdf?1709929569000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626050402_1.pdf?1709929569000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'High-tech Manufacturing Macro Weekly Report: Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index fell slightly', 'originalAuthor': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数略有下跌。截至2024年3月2日当周，国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数A录得0.2，较上周下跌；国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数B为59.2，较上周略有下跌；扩散指数C为-17.09，较上周上涨。从分项看，本周六氟磷酸锂、动态随机存储器价格下跌，新能源行业、半导体行业景气度保持下行；丙烯腈价格上涨，航空航天景气度上行；中关村电子产品价格指数、6-氨基青霉烷酸价格不变，计算机、医药行业景气度不变。高技术产业跟踪方面：高技术制造业高频数据跟踪上，6-氨基青霉烷酸价格330元/千克，与上周持平；丙烯腈价格9600元/吨，较上周上涨350元/吨；动态随机存储器（DRAM）价格1.0820美元，较上周下跌0.005美元；晶圆（Wafer）价格最新一期报3.44美元/片，与上周持平；六氟磷酸锂价格6.35万元/吨，较上周下跌0.3；中关村电子产品价格指数:液晶显示器最新一期报91.04，与上周持平。总结来看，航空航天景气度上行，半导体、新能源行业景气度下行，医药、计算机行业景气度保持不变。高技术制造业政策动向上，据科技日报2月27日消息，记者从国家粮食和物资储备局新闻通气会上获悉，目前我国已初步建成粮食购销和储备数字化监管体系，首次实现政策性粮食监管信息化全覆盖，达到粮食购销和储备全过程实时动态监管的预期目标。“按照统一标准、统一接口、统一平台、统一信息系统的要求，经过2年的共同努力，中央和地方政策性粮食信息化覆盖率从40%左右上升到100%，已全面覆盖中央储备粮、最低收购价粮、省市县三级地方储备粮等所有中央和地方政策性粮食。”国家粮食和物资储备局党组成员、副局长钱毅表示。“人机协同‘大数据’管粮正成为现实。一方面，我们坚持以高质量的数据源头采集为基础。粮食购销和储备数字化监管国家平台已汇集粮食购销数据超4亿条，相比2年前，数据采集范围扩大了60%。另一方面，我们坚持以优化大数据监管模型系统为关键。该系统为粮食购销和储备监管提供了‘千里眼’和‘透视眼’，形成了对涉粮违法违规行为的震慑力。”高技术制造业前沿动态上，据科技日报2月27日消息，记者从广东省农业科学院获悉，该院作物研究所花生团队通过大规模的花生种质资源群体基因组重测序，构建出花生全基因组变异图谱，并阐明了中国花生的引进与传播途径，揭示了花生遗传改良的分子机制。该研究成果近日在线发表于《自然·遗传学》。风险提示：高技术制造业发展和结构调整带来指标失灵；经济政策和产业政策干预；经济增速下滑。', 'content': 'Core view: Guosen\\'s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index fell slightly. In the week ending March 2, 2024, Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index A recorded 0.2, down from last week; Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index B was 59.2, slightly down from last week; diffusion index C was - 17.09, up from last week. In terms of items, the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and dynamic random access memory fell this week, and the new energy industry and semiconductor industry continued to decline; the price of acrylonitrile increased, and the aerospace prosperity increased; Zhongguancun electronic product price index, 6-aminopenicillanic acid Prices remain unchanged, and the prosperity of the computer and pharmaceutical industries remains unchanged. High-tech industry tracking: According to the high-frequency data tracking of high-tech manufacturing, the price of 6-aminopenicillanic acid is 330 yuan/kg, the same as last week; the price of acrylonitrile is 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week. ; The price of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) was US$1.0820, down US$0.005 from last week; the price of wafer (Wafer) was reported at US$3.44/piece in the latest issue, the same as last week; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was RMB 63,500/ton, down from last week 0.3; Zhongguancun Electronic Products Price Index: The latest issue of LCD monitors was 91.04, the same as last week. In summary, the prosperity of the aerospace industry is rising, the semiconductor and new energy industries are declining, and the pharmaceutical and computer industries remain unchanged. Regarding high-tech manufacturing policy trends, according to Science and Technology Daily on February 27, reporters learned from the press briefing of the National Grain and Material Reserves Administration that my country has initially established a digital supervision system for grain purchase, sales and reserves, and has achieved policy-based grain supervision for the first time. Full informatization coverage achieves the expected goal of real-time and dynamic supervision of the entire process of grain purchase, sale and storage. \"In accordance with the requirements of unified standards, unified interfaces, unified platforms, and unified information systems, after two years of joint efforts, the coverage rate of central and local policy-based grain informatization has increased from about 40% to 100%, and has fully covered central grain reserves, All central and local policy grains such as minimum purchase price grains and local grain reserves at the provincial, city and county levels,” said Qian Yi, member of the Party Leadership Group and Deputy Director of the National Grain and Material Reserves Administration. \"Human-machine collaboration in \\'big data\\' grain management is becoming a reality. On the one hand, we insist on collecting high-quality data sources. The national platform for digital supervision of grain purchase, sales and reserves has collected more than 400 million pieces of grain purchase and sales data, compared with 2 Years ago, the scope of data collection expanded by 60%. On the other hand, we insist on optimizing the big data supervision model system as the key. This system provides \\'clairvoyance\\' and \\'perspective eyes\\' for the supervision of grain purchase, sales and reserves, forming a comprehensive understanding of the relevant issues. The deterrent effect of grain violations.\" On the forefront of high-tech manufacturing, according to Science and Technology Daily news on February 27, reporters learned from the Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences that the peanut team of the academy\\'s Crop Research Institute passed a large-scale peanut germplasm resource group Genome resequencing constructed a peanut genome-wide variation map, clarified the introduction and spread of peanuts in China, and revealed the molecular mechanism of peanut genetic improvement. The research results were recently published online in Nature Genetics. Risk warning: The development and structural adjustment of high-tech manufacturing industry will lead to indicator failure; economic policy and industrial policy intervention; economic growth will decline.', 'authorid': UUID('326df97e-9b51-50f7-9a96-c9f92117a326'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9657776830717921, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '5E8A5JEO4O4NPORCONAMJVNNV3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:53:09 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '5E8A5JEO4O4NPORCONAMJVNNV3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7102a4cb-09c8-566a-b1eb-540a09a7d25a'), 'title': 'Comments on PMI data in February 2024: weak repair in off-season', 'author': 'Tan Zhuo, Zhang Bingying', 'orgName': '招商银行股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xaPj5sUKuUF5kC//XZstJT0=', 'researcher': '谭卓,张冰莹', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000281853', '11000430037'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xaPj5sUKuUF5kC//XZstJT0=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626034298_1.pdf?1709920461000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626034298_1.pdf?1709920461000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on PMI data in February 2024: weak repair in off-season', 'originalAuthor': '谭卓,张冰莹', 'originalContent': '2月制造业PMI环比微跌0.1pct至49.1%，跌幅小于疫前三年春节月均值，连续第五个月位于收缩���间。非制造业PMI环比逆季节性上升0.7pct至51.4%，仍为历史同期最低值。其中，建筑业与服务业景气度环比延续上月走向，前者继续回落0.4pct至53.5%，后者继续回升0.9pct至51%，升幅超疫前三年春节月均值，是非制造业PMI环比上升的主因。一、产需：需求偏弱，生产遇阻需求端景气度仍处收缩。2月制造业内外需景气度环比未见改善，新订单指数49%持平上月，新出口订单指数下行0.9pct至46.3%，基本符合季节性特征。非制造业需求景气度环比分化。2月建筑业与服务业新订单指数分别逆季节性微升0.6pct、超季节性下行1pct至47.3%、46.7%，指向节后建筑业需求修复或率先启动。生产端景气度环比跌幅略超季节性。受节假日及极端天气影响，2月制造业生产指数环比大幅下行1.5pct至49.8%，时隔八个月暂返收缩区间。就业持续承压，制造业、建筑业与服务业从业人员指数自去年二季度以来均持续位于收缩区间。价格指数以跌为主。因生产端修复相对强于需求端，制造业出厂价格与服务业收费价格指数自去年四季度以来均位于收缩区间。边际变化出现在建筑业，因淡季需求持续偏弱，收费价格指数环比季节性下行，时隔九个月落入收缩区间。制造业原材料价格指数继续微降0.3pct至50.1%，指向2月PPI通胀或仍承压。库存端，产需两端疲弱及价格下行影响企业采购意愿，制造业企业库存去化持续放缓。2月原材料、产成品库存指数均位于收缩区间。边际变化是，新订单与产成品库存指数差小幅转正，企业节前备货得以消耗，但实际库存较需求修复情况仍偏高，指向企业后续生产空间或受压制。', 'content': \"The manufacturing PMI in February fell slightly by 0.1pct from the previous month to 49.1%. The decline was smaller than the monthly average during the Spring Festival in the three years before the epidemic, and it was in the contraction range for the fifth consecutive month. The non-manufacturing PMI rose counter-seasonally by 0.7pct month-on-month to 51.4%, still the lowest value for the same period in history. Among them, the prosperity of the construction industry and the service industry continued the trend from the previous month. The former continued to fall by 0.4pct to 53.5%, and the latter continued to rebound by 0.9pct to 51%. The increase exceeded the monthly average of the Spring Festival in the three years before the epidemic. The non-manufacturing PMI increased month-on-month. main reason. 1. Production and demand: Demand is weak, production is hindered and demand-side prosperity is still shrinking. The domestic and foreign demand sentiment in the manufacturing industry did not improve month-on-month in February. The new orders index remained unchanged at 49% from the previous month. The new export orders index fell by 0.9pct to 46.3%, which is basically in line with seasonal characteristics. Non-manufacturing demand boom varies month-on-month. In February, the new orders index for the construction industry and the service industry slightly increased counter-seasonally by 0.6 pct, and dropped super-seasonally by 1 pct to 47.3% and 46.7%, respectively, indicating that the recovery of demand in the construction industry after the holiday may be the first to start. The month-on-month decline in the production-end prosperity was slightly more than seasonal. Affected by holidays and extreme weather, the manufacturing production index dropped sharply by 1.5pct month-on-month to 49.8% in February, temporarily returning to contraction territory after eight months. Employment continues to be under pressure, and the employment indexes in the manufacturing, construction and service industries have all continued to be in the contraction range since the second quarter of last year. The price index mainly fell. Because the repairs on the production side are relatively stronger than those on the demand side, the manufacturing ex-factory price index and the service industry charge price index have both been in the contraction range since the fourth quarter of last year. Marginal changes occurred in the construction industry. As demand continued to be weak in the off-season, the charging price index fell seasonally from the previous month, falling into the contraction range for the first time in nine months. The manufacturing raw material price index continued to drop slightly by 0.3pct to 50.1%, indicating that PPI inflation may still be under pressure in February. On the inventory side, weakness in both production and demand and falling prices have affected companies' willingness to purchase, and inventory removal by manufacturing companies continues to slow down. Inventory indexes for raw materials and finished goods in February were both in the contraction range. The marginal change is that the difference between new orders and finished goods inventory index has turned slightly positive, and companies' pre-holiday stockings have been consumed. However, the actual inventory is still higher than the demand recovery situation, indicating that companies' subsequent production space may be suppressed.\", 'authorid': UUID('4de1a6de-15da-5e85-b302-5e4c939c8ff4'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9525847993791103, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'QH6FHKQ4AO4D0D8TPQ8KCAO7EBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:53:47 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'QH6FHKQ4AO4D0D8TPQ8KCAO7EBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('86e7eeff-bb25-514e-a673-4c5a72f198d6'), 'title': 'Interpretation and policy comparison of the 2024 government work reports of the top six provinces: Economically large provinces take the lead', 'author': 'Cheng Weibo, Chu Chu, Dai Xiaodi, Li Weilin, Cheng Chunxiao, Liu Jiangwei, Ji Xiangxi', 'orgName': '招商银行股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xUnXafiUekgIdxgISrNykKQ=', 'researcher': '程伟波,储楚,戴筱頔,李蔚林,程春晓,刘江伟,吉祥熙', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000295634', '11000398833', '11000380344', '11000410033', '11000380340', '11000460133', '11000460134'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xUnXafiUekgIdxgISrNykKQ=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626034294_1.pdf?1709920666000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626034294_1.pdf?1709920666000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation and policy comparison of the 2024 government work reports of the top six provinces: Economically large provinces take the lead', 'originalAuthor': '程伟波,储楚,戴筱頔,李蔚林,程春晓,刘江伟,吉祥熙', 'originalContent': '2023年底召开的中央经济工作会议强调“经济大省要真正挑起大梁”，为稳定全国经济作出更大贡献。随后在各省两会上，经济大省纷纷释放积极信号，扛起挑大梁职责。本篇报告对广东、江苏、山东、浙江、四川、河南等六省2024年政府工作报告进行了深入解读，并对各省年度工作重点进行了比较分析。2023年运行回顾：2023年，六个经济大省GDP合计占全国经济总量的44.2%，发挥着经济“顶梁柱”作用。其中，苏鲁浙川是提振全国经济增速的主要力量，而广东、河南表现略显疲软。同时，各省经济增长各有亮点。例如，广东区域创新综合能力连续7年居全国第一，江苏“万亿之城”增至5座，山东产业升级成果显现，浙江的软件信息等生产性服务业增势强劲，四川消费旺盛、服务业强势，河南“新三样”、民营企业出口展现韧性。2024年总体工作部署：六省积极响应中央经济工作会议精神，整体来看，科技创新、现代化产业体系建设、扩大消费和投资、促进外资外贸发展等，均是各大省普遍提及的重点工作。部分省份在此基础上做了一些特色化的安排，广东、四川分别将推进粤港澳大湾区、成渝地区双城经济圈这两项国家重点城市群战略放在重点工作首位；粤苏鲁浙4省将文化事业列为年度重点工作；此外，浙江把政策引导单列、山东把数字经济单列、广东把海洋经济单列。与2023年相比，多数经济大省下调了2024年GDP增速、投资、消费、进出口等多项目标，只有浙江逆势上调。重点举措解读：六省共同关注的工作重点：在科技创新方面，各地将从加强基础研究、推动科创与产业融合、强化企业创新主体地位、打造创新联合体、建设重大创新平台、推动科技成果转化应用、打造创新生态、机制保障等维度着力。在现代化产业体系建设方面，产业链与产业集群建设、传统产业和新兴产业及未来产业并举、数字经济、现代服务业等内容值得关注。在扩大内需方面，紧扣中央要求，提出要“激发有潜能的消费”，“扩大有效益的投资”，形成“消费和投资相互促进的良性循环”。在对外开放方面，与上年相比，突出稳外贸、引外资，扩大对外开放。六省的特色举措：广东大湾区建设迈向纵深，围绕“一点两地”新定位，布局再上新台阶；江苏强调高能级平台体系打造，从创新平台、开发平台、产业平台三方面，发挥平台的支撑作用。山东尤其重视数字经济，推动数字产业化、产业数字化和基础设施建设，以数字变革新赛道引领形成经济发展新动能。浙江注重有效市场与有为政府有机结合，围绕民营经济特点，提出要积极���挥政府引领作用，支持产业集群式发展。四川政府工作报告中能级提升与风险防范并重，将短长结合防范化解地方债务风险。河南特色在于农业强省建设，农业发展措施贯穿于科技创新、粮食生产到食品产业等全链条。', 'content': 'The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2023 emphasized that \"economically large provinces must truly take the lead\" and make greater contributions to stabilizing the national economy. Subsequently, at the two sessions of the provinces, major economic provinces released positive signals one after another and shouldered the responsibility of leading the charge. This report provides an in-depth interpretation of the 2024 government work reports of six provinces, including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Henan, and conducts a comparative analysis of the annual work priorities of each province. Operation review in 2023: In 2023, the GDP of the six major economic provinces accounted for 44.2% of the national economic total, playing the role of the \"backbone\" of the economy. Among them, Sulu, Zhejiang and Sichuan are the main forces boosting the national economic growth, while the performance of Guangdong and Henan is slightly weak. At the same time, each province has its own bright spots in economic growth. For example, Guangdong\\'s comprehensive regional innovation capabilities have ranked first in the country for seven consecutive years, Jiangsu\\'s \"Trillion Cities\" have increased to five, Shandong\\'s industrial upgrading has shown results, Zhejiang\\'s software and information and other producer service industries are growing strongly, Sichuan\\'s consumption is strong, The service industry is strong, and Henan’s “Three New Products” and private enterprise exports show resilience. Overall work plan for 2024: The six provinces actively responded to the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference. Overall, scientific and technological innovation, the construction of a modern industrial system, the expansion of consumption and investment, and the promotion of foreign investment and foreign trade development are all key tasks commonly mentioned by major provinces. . Some provinces have made some characteristic arrangements on this basis. Guangdong and Sichuan respectively put the promotion of the two national key urban agglomeration strategies of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle at the top of their priority work; Guangdong-Sulu Four provinces in Zhejiang have listed cultural undertakings as annual key tasks; in addition, Zhejiang has listed policy guidance separately, Shandong has listed digital economy separately, and Guangdong has listed marine economy separately. Compared with 2023, most major economic provinces have lowered their GDP growth, investment, consumption, import and export and other targets for 2024. Only Zhejiang bucked the trend and raised it. Interpretation of key measures: Focus on work shared by the six provinces: In terms of scientific and technological innovation, all regions will strengthen basic research, promote the integration of scientific innovation and industry, strengthen the main position of enterprises in innovation, create innovation consortiums, build major innovation platforms, and promote scientific and technological achievements. Focus on transforming applications, creating an innovation ecosystem, and ensuring institutional guarantees. In terms of the construction of a modern industrial system, the construction of industrial chains and industrial clusters, the simultaneous development of traditional and emerging industries and future industries, the digital economy, and the modern service industry deserve attention. In terms of expanding domestic demand, we closely follow the central government\\'s requirements and propose to \"stimulate potential consumption\" and \"expand productive investment\" to form a \"virtuous cycle in which consumption and investment promote each other.\" In terms of opening up to the outside world, compared with the previous year, emphasis was placed on stabilizing foreign trade, attracting foreign investment, and expanding opening up to the outside world. Characteristic measures of the six provinces: the construction of the Guangdong Greater Bay Area is moving forward in depth, with the new positioning of \"one point, two places\" taking the layout to a new level; Jiangsu emphasizes the creation of a high-energy platform system, from the three aspects of innovation platform, development platform and industrial platform. Play the supporting role of the platform. Shandong attaches special importance to the digital economy, promotes digital industrialization, industrial digitization and infrastructure construction, and uses the new track of digital transformation to lead the formation of new momentum for economic development. Zhejiang attaches great importance to the organic combination of effective markets and promising governments. Focusing on the characteristics of the private economy, it proposes to actively play the leading role of the government and support the development of industrial clusters. The Sichuan government work report places equal emphasis on energy level improvement and risk prevention, and combines short-term and long-term measures to prevent and resolve local debt risks. Henan\\'s characteristic lies in the construction of a strong agricultural province, and agricultural development measures run through the entire chain from scientific and technological innovation, grain production to food industry.', 'authorid': UUID('1414c125-1ff6-5b8c-a98b-27b777fc579a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.13934782519936562, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'AC2A0ELMFBGQN5V5D6UPNI7JAJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:53:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'AC2A0ELMFBGQN5V5D6UPNI7JAJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8f2468d6-876e-5096-8751-dd362850eab6'), 'title': 'Comments on Waller’s speech at the 2024 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum: Federal Reserve policy outlook: interest rate cut + balance sheet reduction', 'author': 'Tan Zhuo, Wang Tiancheng', 'orgName': '招商银行', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xZWZSLJVGHUyPs5t8tUbFBA=', 'researcher': '谭卓,王天程', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000281853', '11000412642'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xZWZSLJVGHUyPs5t8tUbFBA=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626034291_1.pdf?1709917222000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626034291_1.pdf?1709917222000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on Waller’s speech at the 2024 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum: Federal Reserve policy outlook: interest rate cut + balance sheet reduction', 'originalAuthor': '谭卓,王天程', 'originalContent': '美东时间3月1日，美联储理事沃勒（ChristopherJ.Waller）在美国货币政策论坛上发表关于美联储量化操作的演讲，引发市场广泛关注。总体上看，沃勒此次演讲展示了美联储未来政策操作的一种前景，即在降息的同时推进“缩表”。沃勒认为，量化紧缩并非紧缩性工具，而是货币政策正常化（normalization）的一部分，与降息并不冲突。未来美联储“缩表”或对金融市场造成深远影响。沃勒主张，从总量看，量化紧缩仍有很大空间；从结构看，MBS规模与占比应趋近于零，短期国债规模与占比将大幅提升。一、沃勒其人：“鹰派”共和党两年前，沃勒与美国前财长萨默斯（LarrySummers）、IMF前首席经济学家布兰查德（OlivierBlanchard）针锋相对，提出通胀可以在失业率不出现跳升的情况下回归2%，即货币政策可以让美国经济实现“软着陆”。目前看来，沃勒的观点似乎在这场“贝弗里奇曲线之争”中胜出。加之沃勒是当前美联储理事会中两名被特朗普任命的理事之一，被视为下一届美联储主席的有力竞争者（鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月届满），其观点因此广受瞩目。自2020年担任美联储理事以来，沃勒一直是著名的“鹰派”，更担忧高通胀而非高失业。此次沃勒通过论文评论发表的观点1也与其政策偏好总体一致，认为缩表的紧缩性效果相对有限。二、立场：量化紧缩不是紧缩工具沃勒指出，量化宽松（QE）和量化紧缩（QT）的影响是“非对称”（asymmetric）的，前者对收益率曲线的压降作用显著强于后者的拉升作用。这种非对称性使得量化宽松操作可能增进社会福利。论文2指出，量化紧缩的“公告效应”（announcementeffect）远弱于量化宽松，公布量化紧缩计划仅能拉升美国国债收益率4-8bp。基于此，沃勒认为量化宽松是宽松工具，但量化紧缩不是紧缩工具，而是资产负债表正常化的一部分。量化宽松是为应对“利率零下限”而启用的非常规（unconventional）工具，量化紧缩则是该工具退出的过程。三、执行：量化紧缩仍有很大空间沃勒认为美国国债市场兼具广度和深度，拥有充足的买家，很容易消化量化紧缩带来的流动性缺口。论文指出，央行在量化紧缩过程中减持的资产主要被居民部门和做市商承接。沃勒发现，2022年启动量化紧缩以来，美国居民部门持有国债量出现激增，抵押支持证券MBS3亦然。这些增持多来自于主动购买，而非来自因持有其他金融产品而导致的被动购买。考虑到隔夜逆回购4（ONRRP）所形成的缓冲垫，沃勒认为��缩空间还很大。沃勒表示，当前美联储负债端仍有规模超过$5,000亿的隔夜逆回购工具，这是金融市场不需要的过剩流动性，最终应当降至0。此外，国内常备回购便利5（SRF）等工具会在关键时刻向金融系统提供流动性支持，这意味着准备金水平还可以被压得更低。根据沃勒今年1月的表述，合意准备金规模约为名义GDP的10-11%，叠加当前超过$5,000亿的国内逆回购工具规模，美联储缩表空间或在$1万亿以上。四、结构：昨日重现沃勒认为美联储资产负债表正常化的意涵不仅在于总量上的缩减，更在于资产结构的调整。一是MBS占比从31.5%降至0，美联储在启动量化宽松前并不持有这种资产。二是大幅提升短期国债占比，短期国债占总资产的比重已经从2009年启动量化宽松前的30%降至当前的3%，这一比例应当向启动量化宽松前的水平回归，这能够使美联储资产负债表期限更为匹配，并为未来货币政策储备空间。五、前瞻：降息与缩表或同时进行前瞻地看，美联储降息和缩表或将同时进行。沃勒认为，资产负债表操作和利率操作的目标相对独立，前者致力于保持流动性合理充裕（rightandample），后者致力于经济稳定与双重目标。客观评估，考虑到美联储资产负债表总量缩减与结构调整的巨大数量级，沃勒的缩表设想将对全球金融市场造成深远影响。', 'content': 'On March 1, Eastern Time, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller delivered a speech on the Fed’s quantitative operations at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, which aroused widespread market attention. Overall, Waller\\'s speech showed a prospect for the Fed\\'s future policy operations, which is to cut interest rates while promoting \"balance reduction.\" Waller believes that quantitative tightening is not a tightening tool, but part of the normalization of monetary policy, and does not conflict with interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve\\'s \"shrinking of its balance sheet\" in the future may have a profound impact on the financial market. Waller advocated that from a total volume perspective, there is still a lot of room for quantitative tightening; from a structural perspective, the scale and proportion of MBS should approach zero, and the scale and proportion of short-term government bonds will increase significantly. 1. Who is Waller: The \"hawkish\" Republican Party. Two years ago, Waller had a tit-for-tat confrontation with former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard, proposing that inflation can be a factor in unemployment. If the rate returns to 2% without a jump, that is, monetary policy can allow the U.S. economy to achieve a \"soft landing.\" For now, Waller’s view appears to be winning the battle over the Beveridge Curve. In addition, Waller is one of the two Trump-appointed members of the current Federal Reserve Board of Governors and is regarded as a strong contender to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman (Powell’s term will expire in May 2026), so his views are widely By the attention. Since taking office as a Fed governor in 2020, Waller has been a well-known \"hawk\" and is more worried about high inflation than high unemployment. The opinion 1 expressed by Waller in this paper review is generally consistent with his policy preferences, and he believes that the tightening effect of balance sheet shrinkage is relatively limited. 2. Position: Quantitative tightening is not a tightening tool. Waller pointed out that the impact of quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT) is \"asymmetric\", and the former has a significantly stronger effect on the yield curve than the latter. The lifting effect. This asymmetry makes quantitative easing operations likely to enhance social welfare. Paper 2 points out that the \"announcement effect\" of quantitative tightening is far weaker than that of quantitative easing. The announcement of a quantitative tightening plan can only increase the yield of US Treasury bonds by 4-8bp. Based on this, Waller believes that quantitative easing is an easing tool, but quantitative tightening is not a tightening tool, but a part of balance sheet normalization. Quantitative easing is an unconventional tool used to deal with the \"zero lower bound on interest rates\", and quantitative tightening is the process of exiting this tool. 3. Execution: There is still a lot of room for quantitative tightening. Waller believes that the U.S. Treasury market has both breadth and depth, and has sufficient buyers, which can easily absorb the liquidity gap caused by quantitative tightening. The paper points out that the assets reduced by the central bank during the quantitative tightening process are mainly taken over by the residential sector and market makers. Waller found that since the launch of quantitative tightening in 2022, the amount of Treasury bonds held by the U.S. household sector has surged, as has the mortgage-backed securities MBS3. These increases in holdings mostly come from active purchases rather than from passive purchases resulting from holding other financial products. Taking into account the cushion formed by the overnight reverse repurchase 4 (ONRRP), Waller believes that there is still a lot of room for tightening. Waller said that the Fed currently still has more than $500 billion in overnight reverse repurchase facilities on its liability side. This is excess liquidity that is not needed in financial markets and should eventually be reduced to zero. In addition, tools such as the domestic Standing Repo Facility 5 (SRF) will provide liquidity support to the financial system at critical moments, which means that reserve levels can be pushed even lower. According to Waller\\'s statement in January this year, the agreed reserve scale is about 10-11% of nominal GDP. Combined with the current domestic reverse repurchase facility scale of more than $500 billion, the Fed\\'s balance sheet shrinkage space may be more than $1 trillion. 4. Structure: Yesterday, Waller reiterated that the normalization of the Fed\\'s balance sheet means not only the reduction of the total amount, but also the adjustment of the asset structure. First, the proportion of MBS dropped from 31.5% to 0. The Fed did not hold this asset before launching quantitative easing. The second is to significantly increase the proportion of short-term government bonds. The proportion of short-term government bonds in total assets has dropped from 30% before the launch of quantitative easing in 2009 to the current 3%. This proportion should return to the level before the launch of quantitative easing, which can make The Fed\\'s balance sheet maturities are more closely matched and provide room for future monetary policy. 5. Looking forward: Interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction may be carried out at the same time. Looking forward, the Fed\\'s interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction may be carried out at the same time. Waller believes that the goals of balance sheet operations and interest rate operations are relatively independent. The former is committed to maintaining reasonably sufficient liquidity (rightandample), and the latter is committed to economic stability and dual goals. An objective assessment shows that Waller\\'s balance sheet reduction scenario will have a profound impact on global financial markets, considering the magnitude of the total reduction and structural adjustment of the Federal Reserve\\'s balance sheet.', 'authorid': UUID('510b9bbe-d143-5321-b7bf-818dba62f694'), 'sentimentScore': 0.22749201953411102, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'SKH0L37JEGLUQ9QIENLBDIBF1FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:53:54 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'SKH0L37JEGLUQ9QIENLBDIBF1FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d1815f89-9ee0-54a6-80c7-b0f3d19f9b24'), 'title': 'Comments on Shandong Province’s “Notice on Temporarily Exempting Highway Tolls for Hydrogen Energy Vehicles”: Hydrogen Vehicles Want to Cross Thousand Mountains', 'author': 'Pan Wei', 'orgName': '招商银行', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xUBzXLSJXwZHuVG0Lyp5bNs=', 'researcher': '潘伟', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000401532'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xUBzXLSJXwZHuVG0Lyp5bNs=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626034262_1.pdf?1709924354000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626034262_1.pdf?1709924354000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on Shandong Province’s “Notice on Temporarily Exempting Highway Tolls for Hydrogen Energy Vehicles”: Hydrogen Vehicles Want to Cross Thousand Mountains', 'originalAuthor': '潘伟', 'originalContent': '事件：为积极推进“氢进万家”科技示范工程，鼓励氢能车辆开展跨区运营，山东省交通运输厅、山东省发展和改革委员会和山东省科技厅下发《关于对氢能车辆暂免收取高速公路通行费的通知》，自2024年3月1日起对行驶在山东省高速公路安装ETC套装设备的氢能车辆暂免收取高速公路通行费。政策试行期2年，到期后依据执行情况适时调整，这是国内首个对氢能车辆免收高速公路通行费的省份，我们对此点评如下：一、我国燃料电池汽车处于政策驱动阶段，货车是主要的应用领域2022年3月国家能源局出台《氢能产业发展中长期规划（2021-2035年）》，计划到2025年全国燃料电池保有量达到5万辆。而根据香橙会研究院的数据，2015-2023年全国燃料电池汽车���计的产量为18494辆，仅完成目标的36.2%。从总量来看，2023年我国燃料电池汽车累计上险7384辆，同比增长50.4%；全年燃料电池汽车产销量分别为5668辆和5805辆，同比分别增长55.3%和72.0%，均创下历史新高。从车型结构来看，2023年燃料电池货车、客车和乘用车分别上险5838、1339和207辆，占比分别为79.1%、18.1%和2.8%，意味着商用车（货车+客车）在我国燃料电池汽车中占绝对主导，这与国家“重点推动中远途、中重型商用车示范应用”的政策导向一致。', 'content': 'Event: In order to actively promote the \"Hydrogen Entering Ten Thousand Households\" technology demonstration project and encourage cross-regional operations of hydrogen energy vehicles, the Shandong Provincial Department of Transportation, the Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission, and the Shandong Provincial Department of Science and Technology issued the \"About Temporary Regulation of Hydrogen Energy Vehicles\" \"Notice on Exemption from Highway Tolls\", starting from March 1, 2024, hydrogen energy vehicles equipped with ETC package equipment driving on highways in Shandong Province will be temporarily exempted from highway tolls. The policy has a trial period of 2 years, and will be adjusted in due course based on the implementation after expiration. This is the first province in China to exempt hydrogen vehicles from highway tolls. Our comments on this are as follows: 1. my country’s fuel cell vehicles are in the policy-driven stage. Trucks are the main application field. In March 2022, the National Energy Administration issued the \"Medium- and Long-term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)\", which plans to have 50,000 fuel cells in the country by 2025. According to data from the Orange Association Research Institute, the cumulative production of fuel cell vehicles nationwide from 2015 to 2023 was 18,494 units, achieving only 36.2% of the target. In terms of total volume, a total of 7,384 fuel cell vehicles will be insured in my country in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 50.4%; the annual fuel cell vehicle production and sales were 5,668 and 5,805 vehicles, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 55.3% and 72.0%, both setting records. new highs. From the perspective of vehicle model structure, 5838, 1339 and 207 fuel cell trucks, buses and passenger cars will be insured respectively in 2023, accounting for 79.1%, 18.1% and 2.8% respectively, which means that commercial vehicles (trucks + buses) will be insured in 2023. Fuel cell vehicles dominate the market in my country, which is consistent with the country’s policy guidance of “focusing on promoting the demonstration and application of medium- and long-distance and medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles.”', 'authorid': UUID('2263343b-235e-5871-bfb7-3e2a00abab86'), 'sentimentScore': 0.12303102109581232, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'F2PN4N10IDERVEG8ICU136N3INVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:53:58 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'F2PN4N10IDERVEG8ICU136N3INVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6662f48c-72b7-57a5-9fa1-4999a0f90305'), 'title': 'Comments on macro events: Exports exceed expectations and macro policy rhythm', 'author': 'Zhao Honghe', 'orgName': '民生证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000038', 'orgSName': '民生证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xcCDWnHdc44IYU4fMPX7xN4=', 'researcher': '赵宏鹤', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000330356'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xcCDWnHdc44IYU4fMPX7xN4=', 'site': 'Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '民生证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626030856_1.pdf?1709913433000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626030856_1.pdf?1709913433000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on macro events: Exports exceed expectations and macro policy rhythm', 'originalAuthor': '赵宏鹤', 'originalContent': '开年进出口数据超预期。2024年1-2月，美元出口同比+7.1%（前值+2.3%），进口同比+3.5%（前值+0.2%），WIND预期均值是+0.3%和+0.1%。出口超预期可能令宏观政策节奏保持偏稳。出口超预期，一是基数下降，二是外需暂时改善，全球制造业周期的持续下行在2023年下半年有所企稳。随着出口迎来“开门红”，2023年负增长的外需对经济的拖累有所减小。政府工作报告将加速发展新质生产力设为今年第一顺位工作，外需的超预期表现可能令宏观政策的释放节奏在接下来1-2个月保持偏稳的状态。往后看，出口仍然面临一些不确定性。��务部长在两会经济主题记者会上指出，“今年的外贸还处于十分严峻的形势，一方面外需下滑的压力较大，另一方面可以看到贸易保护主义抬头”。下一个观察时间节点是4月下旬的政治局会议。出口面对的全球需求条件有所改善。即使剔除基数影响看出口的两年同比，仍然有所改善，指向外需条件改善是出口超预期的重要贡献。具体来看两个指标。一是美国制造业PMI，在1-2月分别录得49.1%和47.8%，明显高于2023年同期的47.4%和47.7%，当前美国制造业景气程度有所上升。从趋势来看，美国制造业PMI从2021年2季度开始持续下行，到2023年下半年逐渐企稳。二是全球半导体销售额，作为全球制造业景气度的影子指标，同样是在去年下半年之后企稳回升。分地区来看，1-2月我国大陆对多数地区出口同比增速回正，同比增速靠前的地区包括：非洲、拉丁美洲、中国香港、印度、加拿大和俄罗斯和其他，可见俄罗斯、中东、中亚、拉美、非洲等地区持续为我国大陆出口贡献增量。多数出口商品价格仍在下降。分商品来看，出口同比增速居前的主要包括家具、灯具、集成电路、陶瓷产品、箱包等，同比增速均在20%以上；肥料、稀土、成品油、手机、铝材等商品的出口则录得两位数以上的降幅，多集中在上游原材料类。经测算，2024年1-2月多数出口商品的价格仍在下跌，仅有中药类、液晶显示模组和集成电路的价格有所回升，显示多数商品的出口金额仍然由数量驱动。风险提示：外需回升不及预期、地缘关系变化超预期。', 'content': 'The import and export data at the beginning of the year exceeded expectations. From January to February 2024, US dollar exports were +7.1% year-on-year (previous value +2.3%), imports were +3.5% year-on-year (previous value +0.2%), and the average WIND expected values \\u200b\\u200bare +0.3% and +0.1%. Exports exceeding expectations may keep the pace of macroeconomic policy stable. Exports exceeded expectations. First, the base fell. Second, external demand temporarily improved. The continued downward trend of the global manufacturing cycle has stabilized in the second half of 2023. With exports getting off to a good start, the drag on the economy from negative growth in external demand in 2023 has been reduced. The government work report sets accelerating the development of new productive forces as the top priority this year. The unexpected performance of external demand may keep the pace of macroeconomic policy releases relatively stable in the next 1-2 months. Looking forward, exports still face some uncertainties. The Minister of Commerce pointed out at the economic press conference of the two sessions that \"foreign trade this year is still in a very severe situation. On the one hand, there is greater pressure from declining external demand, and on the other hand, we can see the rise of trade protectionism.\" The next observation time node is the Politburo meeting in late April. Global demand conditions faced by exports have improved. Even if we exclude the base effect and look at the two-year year-on-year export performance, there is still improvement, pointing to improved external demand conditions as an important contribution to exports exceeding expectations. Let’s look at two indicators specifically. First, the U.S. manufacturing PMI recorded 49.1% and 47.8% respectively in January and February, significantly higher than the 47.4% and 47.7% in the same period in 2023. The current prosperity of the U.S. manufacturing industry has increased. From a trend perspective, the U.S. manufacturing PMI has continued to decline since the second quarter of 2021 and will gradually stabilize in the second half of 2023. Second, global semiconductor sales, as a shadow indicator of global manufacturing prosperity, also stabilized and rebounded after the second half of last year. In terms of regions, the year-on-year growth rate of mainland my country\\'s exports to most regions returned to positive growth from January to February. Regions with the highest year-on-year growth rates include: Africa, Latin America, Hong Kong, India, Canada, Russia and others. It can be seen that Russia, the Middle East , Central Asia, Latin America, Africa and other regions continue to contribute incrementally to mainland my country\\'s exports. Prices of most export commodities are still falling. In terms of commodities, the exports with the highest year-on-year growth rates mainly include furniture, lamps, integrated circuits, ceramic products, luggage, etc., with year-on-year growth rates of more than 20%; fertilizers, rare earths, refined oils, mobile phones, aluminum and other commodities Exports recorded more than double-digit declines, mostly concentrated in upstream raw materials. It is estimated that the prices of most export commodities are still falling from January to February 2024, and only the prices of traditional Chinese medicine, LCD modules and integrated circuits have rebounded, showing that the export value of most commodities is still driven by quantity. Risk warning: The recovery of external demand is less than expected, and changes in geopolitical relations are greater than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('c0fa26e4-f5e4-5712-8059-b76c5f4762fb'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7338889464735985, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '31TBO473PMG6OBCD0NHRTOGVH7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:54:01 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '31TBO473PMG6OBCD0NHRTOGVH7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d1f93043-c3a4-5a63-8c4c-7a5cd341b13e'), 'title': 'Comments on trade data from January to February: The scale of import and export hit a record high for the same period in history, and the year-on-year growth rate of exports rebounded significantly.', 'author': 'Fei Xiaoping, Yin Weiqi, Zeng Hao', 'orgName': '东莞证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000081', 'orgSName': '东莞证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xfVQccsg0PvE539jxw1Bh3g=', 'researcher': '费小平,尹炜祺,曾浩', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172091', '11000369924', '11000444937'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xfVQccsg0PvE539jxw1Bh3g=', 'site': 'Dongguan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东莞证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626030356_1.pdf?1709912341000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626030356_1.pdf?1709912341000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on trade data from January to February: The scale of import and export hit a record high for the same period in history, and the year-on-year growth rate of exports rebounded significantly.', 'originalAuthor': '费小平,尹炜祺,曾浩', 'originalContent': '事件：根据海关总署统计，按人民币计价，我国1-2月出口同比增加10.30%，进口同比上升6.70%，1-2月贸易顺差规模为8908.61亿元。按美元计价，我国1-2月出口同比增加7.10%（预期1.90%），进口同比上升3.50%（预期1.50%），1-2月贸易顺差规模为1251.63亿美元（预期1103.00亿美元）。1-2月出口数据超预期回升，外贸动能修复显著。按人民币计价，中国1-2月出口同比上升10.30%，对比23年12月增幅扩大6.5个百分点，大幅高于市场预期，反映外贸动能边际修复显著。2月份摩根大通全球制造业PMI为50.3%，较1月回升0.6个百分点。另外，2024年1月和2月的全球制造业PMI在16个月后首次回升至50%的荣枯线之上。2月美国ISM制造业PMI录得47.8%，大幅回落2.6个百分点；欧元区和日本Markit制造业PMI也大幅低于荣枯线。这表明尽管全球制造业PMI有所回升，但中国的主要贸易伙伴国家的制造业活动仍需进一步的强化和修复。2月中国官方PMI新出口订单指数录得46.3%（前值47.2%）荣枯线下低位回落，考虑到海外制造业仍偏弱，外需动能仍显不足，整体出口形势承压。从主要出口类别来看，按人民币计价，1-2月机电产品出口金额同比增加11.80%，同比增速改善显著。其中，船舶（180.60%）通用机械设备（35.80%）、灯具（33.80%）等保持较快增长；手机（-15.80%形成拖累。前2个月，出口劳密产品6661.9亿元，增长22.2%，占17.8%1-2月进口同比增速显著提高，内需回升带动进口量增长。按人民币计价，1-2月我国进口同比上升6.70%，对比23年12月大幅提高5.1个百分点，继续扩大增幅，超出市场预期。虽然1-2月国内经济延续修复路径，但受到春节休假和节前部分需求提前释放等因素影响，2月PMI进口指数和新订单指数分别录得46.4%、46.3%，环比回落0.3、0.9个百分点。但与此同时，在稳增长政策持续发力的背景下，2月生产经营活动预期指数为54.2%，比上月增长0.2个百分点，制造业企业对市场预期稳定向好，叠加进口增速扩大，或指向内需边际修复、进口景气度稳步上升。从主要进口类别来看，原油、煤、天然气进口量增加。1-2月，我国进口原油、煤、天然气数量累计同比增加5.1%、22.9%、23.6%，原油进口价格上涨1.1%，煤、天然气进口价格累计同比下跌20.9%、21.1%1-2月我国对主要贸易合作伙伴出口同比显著改善，仅对日本出口负增长扩大。按人民币计价，1-2月我国对美国、欧盟和东盟的出口金额累计同比分别增加8.1%、1.6%和9.2%，较上年1-12月分别提高16.2、6.9和9.2个百分点；对日本的出口金额累计同比下降7.0%，呈现负增长，且较去年1-12月跌幅扩大3.5个百分点。此外，1-2月我国对“一带一路共建国家的合计进出口3.13万亿元，增长9%。在贸易顺差方面，以人民币计价，1-2月贸易顺差规模为8908.61亿元，环比增加约3500亿元总体来看，1-2月进出口规模创历史同期新高，出口同比增速显著回升出口方面，在美联储偏鹰信号的加持下，尽管全球制造业采购经理指数（PMI）有所上升，但在持续的高利率环境中，一些主要经济体如美国欧洲和日本的1-2月份制造业表现仍然疲软。与此同时，中国在同期的出口指标却顶住了外部压力，实现了超出预期的增长。进口方面，政策发力背景下，工业企业利润有所修复，叠加节前需求释放，带动内需大幅改善，1-2月我国进口同比增速继续扩大。展望3月，预计去年数据的高基数将导致3月进出口数据出现一定程度的下降。然而，随着全国两会的召开和政府工作报告中释放的积极财政政策信号，国内总需求有望得到进一步的改善。另外，美联储今年转鸽的信号明朗，美联储主席表示，很清楚降息太晚存在的风险，如果经济形势符合预期，美联储就可以从今年开始降息。预计此举将有助于刺激全球需求的复苏，从而改善出口市场的整体环境。综合来看，预计本年进出口数据将维持韧性，同时出口强劲开局也预示出口中枢的回升，将对实现今年5%的GDP增长目标起到积极作用。风险提示：海外经济超预期下滑，以及中美贸易摩擦超预期恶化，导致外需持续收缩，出口景气度持续偏低；内需恢复缓慢，国内经济修复的速度不及预期；中美利差倒挂导致资金持续外流。', 'content': 'Event: According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, calculated in RMB, my country\\'s exports increased by 10.30% year-on-year in January and February, and imports increased by 6.70% year-on-year. The trade surplus in January-February was 890.861 billion yuan. In dollar terms, my country\\'s exports from January to February increased by 7.10% year-on-year (expected to be 1.90%), imports increased by 3.50% year-on-year (expected to be 1.50%), and the trade surplus from January to February was US$125.163 billion (expected to be US$110.300 billion). Export data from January to February rebounded beyond expectations, and foreign trade momentum has recovered significantly. In RMB terms, China\\'s exports from January to February increased by 10.30% year-on-year, 6.5 percentage points higher than the growth rate in December 2023, significantly higher than market expectations, reflecting a significant marginal recovery in foreign trade momentum. JP Morgan\\'s global manufacturing PMI in February was 50.3%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from January. In addition, the global manufacturing PMI in January and February 2024 rose above the 50% boom-bust line for the first time in 16 months. In February, the ISM manufacturing PMI of the United States recorded 47.8%, a sharp drop of 2.6 percentage points; the Markit manufacturing PMI of the Eurozone and Japan were also significantly lower than the boom-bust line. This shows that although the global manufacturing PMI has rebounded, manufacturing activities in China\\'s major trading partners still need to be further strengthened and repaired. In February, China\\'s official PMI new export orders index recorded 46.3% (the previous value was 47.2%). The boom and bust line fell back from the low level. Considering that overseas manufacturing is still weak and external demand momentum is still insufficient, the overall export situation is under pressure. From the perspective of main export categories, in terms of RMB, the export value of mechanical and electrical products increased by 11.80% year-on-year from January to February, and the year-on-year growth rate improved significantly. Among them, ships (180.60%), general machinery and equipment (35.80%), lamps (33.80%), etc. maintained rapid growth; mobile phones (-15.80%) were a drag. In the first two months, the export of labor-intensive products was 666.19 billion yuan, an increase of 22.2% , accounting for 17.8%, the year-on-year growth rate of imports from January to February increased significantly, and the rebound in domestic demand drove the growth of import volume. In RMB terms, China\\'s imports from January to February increased by 6.70% year-on-year, a significant increase of 5.1 percentage points compared with December 23, continuing The growth rate expanded and exceeded market expectations. Although the domestic economy continued to recover from January to February, due to factors such as the Spring Festival holiday and the early release of some demand before the holiday, the PMI import index and new orders index recorded 46.4% and 46.3% respectively in February. , down 0.3 and 0.9 percentage points month-on-month. But at the same time, against the backdrop of continued efforts to stabilize growth policies, the expectation index for production and operating activities in February was 54.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Manufacturing companies’ expectations for the market Stability is improving, and the superimposed import growth rate is expanding, which may point to the marginal recovery of domestic demand and a steady increase in import prosperity. From the perspective of main import categories, the import volume of crude oil, coal, and natural gas increased. From January to February, China imported crude oil, coal, and natural gas The cumulative quantity increased by 5.1%, 22.9%, and 23.6% year-on-year, the import price of crude oil increased by 1.1%, and the cumulative import price of coal and natural gas fell by 20.9% and 21.1% year-on-year. From January to February, China\\'s exports to major trading partners improved significantly year-on-year. Only The negative growth in exports to Japan expanded. In RMB terms, China\\'s exports to the United States, the EU and ASEAN increased by 8.1%, 1.6% and 9.2% year-on-year respectively from January to February, and increased by 16.2, 6.9 and 16.9% respectively from January to December last year. 9.2 percentage points; the cumulative export value to Japan decreased by 7.0% year-on-year, showing negative growth, and the decline expanded by 3.5 percentage points from January to December last year. In addition, from January to February, China’s total imports and exports to the \"Belt and Road\" countries were 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 9%. In terms of trade surplus, measured in RMB, the trade surplus from January to February was 890.861 billion yuan, an increase of about 350 billion yuan from the previous month. Overall, the import and export scale from January to February hit a record high for the same period in history. In terms of exports, with the support of the Federal Reserve\\'s hawkish signal, although the global manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has increased, in the continued high interest rate environment, some major economies such as the United States and Europe and Japan\\'s manufacturing performance in January-February was still weak. At the same time, China\\'s export indicators in the same period withstood external pressure and achieved growth beyond expectations. In terms of imports, against the background of policy efforts, the profits of industrial companies have As repaired, combined with the release of pre-holiday demand, domestic demand has improved significantly, and China\\'s imports have continued to expand year-on-year growth from January to February. Looking forward to March, it is expected that the high base of last year\\'s data will lead to a certain degree of decline in March\\'s import and export data. However, , with the convening of the National Two Sessions and the positive fiscal policy signals released in the government work report, domestic aggregate demand is expected to further improve. In addition, the signal that the Federal Reserve will turn dovish this year is clear. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve stated that he is very aware of the risks of cutting interest rates too late. If the economic situation is in line with expectations, the Federal Reserve can start cutting interest rates this year. The move is expected to help stimulate the recovery of global demand, thereby improving the overall environment in the export market. Taken together, it is expected that the import and export data this year will maintain resilience. At the same time, the strong start of exports also indicates the recovery of the export center, which will play a positive role in achieving this year\\'s GDP growth target of 5%. Risk warning: The overseas economy has declined more than expected, and the Sino-US trade friction has worsened more than expected, resulting in continued contraction of external demand and continued low export prosperity; domestic demand has recovered slowly, and the recovery of the domestic economy has been slower than expected; the inversion of Sino-US interest rate differentials has led to continued funding outflow.', 'authorid': UUID('2893982f-72fd-52d2-b47a-0445106dbd73'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8878861777484417, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'MFHHV5PEJFV6UJEMH8C0FT6UQJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:54:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'MFHHV5PEJFV6UJEMH8C0FT6UQJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0d3c9a04-c03a-573f-aaa6-3297777949e1'), 'title': 'One of a series of comments on the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Six major concerns in the 2024 Government Work Report', 'author': 'Yuan Haixia, Zhang Lin, Yan Xiang', 'orgName': '中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80002154', 'orgSName': '中诚信国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xcZ+HV7QnhSywbjWoZXKUGQ=', 'researcher': '袁海霞,张林,燕翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000241949', '11000270239', '11000455541'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xcZ+HV7QnhSywbjWoZXKUGQ=', 'site': 'China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中诚信国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626030347_1.pdf?1709915940000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626030347_1.pdf?1709915940000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'One of a series of comments on the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Six major concerns in the 2024 Government Work Report', 'originalAuthor': '袁海霞,张林,燕翔', 'originalContent': '事件：2024年3月5日上午9时，十四届全国人大二次会议在人民大会堂开幕，国务院总理李强代表国务院向十四届全国人大二次会议作政府工作报告。我们认为本次报告有以下六点值得关注：一、5%左右的增速目标有助于稳定预期，符合“稳中求进、以进促稳”的基调和要求5%左右的增速目标有助于稳定市场预期与信心，实现预期增速目标也有一定支撑。5%的经济增长目标与我们此前建议的增速目标一致，我们认为，在经济运行的各项矛盾与问题中，预期不稳是引发需求不足、产能过剩和国内经济循环存在堵点的重要原因，2023年两年复合增速仅有4.1%，在此背景下若预期增速目标相比上一年出现回调，或会进一步影响市场的信心与底气。在基数走高的背景下，增速目标相较上年不调低，有助于稳定市场预期。另一方面，我们认为今年经济稳中向好有多重支撑：一是工业生产仍有韧性，特别是装备制造业近年来保持较快增长，占工业增加值的比重稳中有升；二是房地产投资的拖累有望减轻，各地“因城施策”加大落地，“三大工程”建设也将为房地产投资提供增量空间；三是服务消费依然保持较快增长，加之大规模消费品以旧换新政策对于商品消费形成的提振，消费的延续改善也有一定空间；四是宏观政策稳增长的空间依然较为充分。从工业与服务业生产，以及消费、投资、出口等方面的宏观统计来看，中性情形下可以支撑实现5%的GDP增长1，今年各地两会公布的GDP加权增速目标为5.4%，总体来看5%也是一个可以完成的目标。实现预期增速目标也并非易事，需要将“稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破”落到实处，并努力推动名义GDP增速显著回升。本次政府工作报告延续了2023年中央经济工作会议对于当前经济形势的判断，指出我国经济持续回升向好的基础尚不牢固，经济运行面临的问题由“三重压力”转变为“多重压力”，存在“有效需求不足，部分行业产能过剩，社会预期偏弱，风险隐患仍然较多，国内大循环存在堵点，国际循环存在干扰”等突出问题。我们认为，房地产投资、消费以及出口等领域依然存在一定的不确定性，积极因素的叠加有可能推动经济增速达到5.5%左右，但消极因素的共振则有可能拖累经济增速下行至4.2%左右，实现预期增速目标仍需各领域政策的合力和努力。此外，本次政府工作报告提出的赤字率和赤字规模所对应的名义GDP增速约为7.4%，高于上年政府工作报告对应的名义增速0.5个百分点，高于上年名义GDP增速2.7个百分点，这意味着2024年稳增长的力度相较2023年应有所加大，“进”和“立”的政策力度应有所加强，促进名义GDP增速有所回升，缩小宏观增长与微观感受之间的差距。二、扩内需将与供给侧结构性改革紧密融合，统筹消费和投资对经济的拉动作用实现5%的目标增速离不开“有潜能的消费”和“有效益的投资”，形成消费和投资相互促进的良性循环。中央经济工作会议提出需要“形成消费和投资相互促进的良性循环”，本次报告则对中央经济工作会议对于扩大内需的要求进行了细化部署。我们此前多次呼吁需要加大供给侧结构性改革与稳消费、促消费政策的有机融合：提升高质量产品供给以及养老、医疗等短板领域的产品与服务供给，不仅有利于扩展消费需求，也有助于缓和供需失衡的矛盾；拓展有利于扩大消费的公共领域和产业领域的投资空间，不仅有助于扩大有效投资，也有助于改善消费环境；当前制约经济良性循环的重要原因就在于最终消费需求不足，而消费需求的改善则为投资的扩张提供动力与空间。从促进消费稳定增长来看，本次报告首先提出通过“增加收入”激发消费潜能。当前制约我国消费增长的瓶颈主要是居民收入缺口尚未完全弥合，居民资产负债表恶化影响了居民的信心与预期。提振消费的关键依然在于提升居民的收入水平与预期，2023年居民收入增速有所回升，但相较常态增长趋势线仍有6%左右的缺口，同时因房产价格下行与股票市场走低，居民资产增速显著回落，财富缩水效应之下居民的消费意愿也有所趋弱。因此促进消费稳定增长首先需要增加居民收入，提升居民消费能力。我们依然建议通过发放现金补贴与数字货币等方式帮助居民修复资产负债表、提振居民消费信心。本次报告提出通过“优化供给”激发消费潜能，体现出供给与消费的结合。一方面培育壮大新型消费，积极培育智能家居、文娱旅游、体育赛事、国货“潮品”等新的消费增长点；另一方面鼓励和推动消费品的以旧换新，从存量中挖掘新的增长点。本次报告还提出通过“减少限制性措施”激发消费潜能，后续或将在购房以及新能源汽车购买方面放宽购置条件，以促进大宗消费。从扩大有效投资来看，一方面需要更好发挥政府投资的带动作用，进一步提升财政资金的投入产出效率，优化财政支出结构。根据各省政府工作报告，虽然今年多数省份固定资产投资增速均有下调，但重大项目依然是各省扩大有效投资的主要抓手，后续应加强民生等经济社会薄弱领域补短板，推进防洪排涝抗灾基础设施建设，推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造，加快实施“十四五”规划重大工程项目。财政资金更多向教育事业发展、医疗卫生服务、社会保障水平等民生领域重点倾斜，特别是专项债作为资本金的范围可以进一步向城中村改造、保障性住房等民生领域倾斜，在拉动投资的同时保障民生。其中，超大特大城市商品房销售额占全国商品房销售比例接近四成，本轮超大、特大城市开展城中村改造具有较强的示范作用，将进一步释放核心城市经济发展潜力，对消费提振也有积极作用。另一方面需要重点加大“科技创新、新型基础设施、节能减排降碳”等“有资金效益”领域中的投资，进一步释放新产业、新业态、新模式对于其他领域的辐射带动作用。此外，本次报告还重点提出“着力稳定和扩大民间投资”，近年来民营企业亏损面较大，“不敢投、不愿投”之下民间投资增速持续下行，通过给与民营企业更多的财政和金融政策支持，在重大投资项目中积极引入民间投资参与，提供更好的营商环境，提振民营企业家信心，才能更好激发微观主体活力，激发经济的内生增长动能。三、着力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力，努力提升全要素生产率推进现代产业体系建设与发展新质生产力为重点任务之首。本次政府工作报告将“大力推进现代化产业体系建设、加快发展新质生产力”作为2024年的首要工作任务。主要目标是以科技创新推动产业创新，加快推进新型工业化，提高全要素生产率，不断塑造发展新动能新优势。当前我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段，传统的经济增长红利和动能有所趋缓，对生产力质量提出了新的要求。新质生产力是总书记于2023年9月在东北调研时首次提出，随后被写入中央经济工作会议公报。新质生产力指以科技创新为经济增长新引擎、以新兴产业和未来产业为载体，符合高质量发展要求的新型生产力，是推动构建现代化产业体系的关键力量。新质生产力从功能来看主要表现为全要素生产率的提升，可以提高经济运行的增长中枢。我国目前的全要素生产率在近年来有所走低，相距美国等发达经济体仍有较大差距，在制度与技术创新领域还存在一定短板与不足，发展新质生产力是我国提升全要素生产率的必然选择。关注传统产业的技术改造升级以及数字经济的创新发展。本次报告在现代产业体系建设方面首先提出产业链供应链的优化升级，这要求加快工业经济与制造业的高端化、智能化、绿色化转型，加大对传统产业改造的投资力度。在积极培育新兴产业和未来产业方面，本次报告提及新能源汽车、新能源、生物制造、生命科学等相关领域，并提出促进战略性新兴产业融合集群发展。此外，我们认为数字技术和实体经济深度融合有助于加快新质生产力的形成。2022年，我国数字经济占GDP比重仅为41.5%，仍落后于英美等发达国家，但数字规模达到50.2万亿元，位居世界第二位，鉴于数字经济的“规模经济”特征以及对于传统产业的提升作用，建议持续促进数字经济和实体经济深度融合发展，推动智慧工厂、智慧供应链、智能车间等智能制造的建设，深入推进服务业数字化转型发展，持续推动数字产业化升级，集中优势力量做大做强5G、物联网、大数据等数字产业，深入挖掘区块链、人工智能等领域的发展潜力。四、财政政策以“适度加力、提质增效”为总基调，赤字率虽未突破3%，但财政政策力度有所增强加大财政支出、调增新增专项债规模以及发行特别国债是用好财政政策空间的主要手段，财政政策力度有所加强。本次政府工作报告延续了2023年中央经济工作会议以及政府工作报告关于财政加力的总基调，但并未突破3%的赤字率安排。报告指出，一是将通过税收的恢复性增长以及调入资金增加1.1万亿一般公共预算支出，二是安排地方政府专项债券3.9万亿，较上年增加1000亿，三是将发行1万亿超长期特别国债，并将连续几年发行。我们认为，破3%财政赤字率体现了“用好现有财政政策空间”的取向，也为后续赤字率的调整留下一定空间。地方政府专项债规模的调增或将使得2024年地方政府杠杆率较上年上升1个百分点左右，有助于缓解地方政府的财政收支压力，也有助于提振地方政府稳增长的能力与意愿。连续发行超长期特别国债超出预期，此前并未出台过特别国债连续发行数年的政策，尽管1万亿超长期特别国债不纳入赤字，但特别国债的持有人可以是中央银行，且部分地区已经在为超长期特别国债储备项目，这有助于财政发力的空间进一步打开，也有助于“强化国家重大战略任务和基本民生财力保障”。根据我们测算，今年广义赤字规模将较去年考虑万亿增发国债后的8.68万亿增加0.28万亿至8.96万亿，广义赤字率为6.6%，保持近年来较高水平。财政支出提质增效的要求并未放松，持续强调“切实把财政资金用在刀刃上”。本次政府工作报告再次明确“严控一般性支出”、“严肃财经纪律，加强财会监督，严禁搞面子工程、形象工程，坚决制止铺张浪费”，“各级政府要习惯过紧日子”等提法。提升资金使用效率可以从以下几个方面着手：一是持续优化财政支出结构。考虑到目前投资乘数低于消费乘数，支出结构可投资、消费并重。一方面，财政支出可进一步向社会民生领域倾斜，稳就业压力之下应继续加大社保就业支出力度，同时保障教育、健康等民生短板领域、薄弱环节支持力度；另一方面，基建相关支出仍可保持稳定，但应更加注重提升基建支出资金效益，促进基建支出向消费基础设施、养老基础设施、数字基数设施等领域倾斜，并加大吸引民间资本投资；同时，积极探索促进消费的举措，建议向低收入群体发放现金或数字货币，特别是针对边际消费倾向比较高的中低收入人群；此外，党政机关要严格落实过紧日子要求，压减一般性支出。二是加强财政改革管理。包括不断强化预算绩效管理，加大财会监督力度，落实落细地方债常态化严监管等，同时还需持续深化财税财政体制改革，以新一轮改革为契机提升财税体制运行效率。三是加强政策协调配合。财政政策要与货币、就业、产业、区域、科技、环保等政策协调配合，提升政策协调性、连续性，形成政策合力，更好发挥财政政策效果。四是后续需加强专项债“借用管还”管理，做好项目储备并优化投向，适当向新基建、消费等对需求拉动、经济修复更有助力的领域倾斜；同时依托国企改革加大融资平台整合，关停并转部分无效或低效运作平台，提升国资效率，逐步发挥股权财政作用。五、货币政策延续稳健基调，更加注重提升结构性政策工具的效能从“发挥双重功能”到“加强双重调节”，货币政策需要进一步加强调节经济运行的实际效果。不同于2023年中央经济工作会议提出的“发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能”，本次报告提出“加强总量和结构双重调节”。我们认为，从发挥功能到加强调节，体现出本次报告对于货币政策效果的强调。由于居民消费、购房以及企业部门特别是私营企业部门的投资动力或存在不足，市场自发的融资需求偏弱，一度出现广义货币供给M2同比增速高于社会融资规模存量同比的现象，宽货币向宽信用的传导存在阻滞，十年期国债收益率持续下行并探至低位，出现一定“资金沉淀空转”的现象。中央经济工作会议提出，保持社融、M2同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配，并将“价格水平预期目标”纳入明年货币供给与融资增速考量范围，体现出2024年货币政策的“锚”有所变化，将维护价格稳定、推动价格温和回升作为货币', 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'事件：2024年3月5日上午9时，十四届全国人大二次会议在人民大会堂开幕，国务院总理李强代表国务院向十四届全国人大二次会议作政府工作报告。我们认为本次报告有以下六点值得关注：一、5%左右的增速目标有助于稳定预期，符合“稳中求进、以进促稳”的基调和要求5%左右的增速目标有助于稳定市场预期与信心，实现预期增速目标也有一定支撑。5%的经济增长目标与我们此前建议的增速目标一致，我们认为，在经济运行的各项矛盾与问题中，预期不稳是引发需求不足、产能过剩和国内经济循环存在堵点的重要原因，2023年两年复合增速仅有4.1%，在此背景下若预期增速目标相比上一年出现回调，或会进一步影响市场的信心与底气。在基数走高的背景下，增速目标相较上年不调低，有助于稳定市场预期。另一方面，我们认为今年经济稳中向好有多重支撑：一是工业生产仍有韧性，特别是装备制造业近年来保持较快增长，占工业增加值的比重稳中有升；二是房地产投资的拖累有望减轻，各地“因城施策”加大落地，“三大工程”建设也将为房地产投资提供增量空间；三是服务消费依然保持较快增长，加之大规模消费品以旧换新政策对于商品消费形成的提振，消费的延续改善也有一定空间；四是宏观政策稳增长的空间依然较为充分。从工业与服务业生产，以及消费、投资、出口等方面的宏观统计来看，中性情形下可以支撑实现5%的GDP增长1，今年各地两会公布的GDP加权增速目标为5.4%，总体来看5%也是一个可以完成的目标。实现预期增速目标也并非易事，需要将“稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破”落到实处，并努力推动名义GDP增速显著回升。本次政府工作报告延续了2023年中央经济工作会议对于当前经济形势的判断，指出我国经济持续回升向好的基础尚不牢固，经济运行面临的问题由“三重压力”转变为“多重压力”，存在“有效需求不足，部分行业产能过剩，社会预期偏弱，风险隐患仍然较多，国内大循环存在堵点，国际循环存在干扰”等突出问题。我们认为，房地产投资、消费以及出口等领域依然存在一定的不确定性，积极因素的叠加有可能推动经济增速达到5.5%左右，但消极因素的共振则有可能拖累经济增速下行至4.2%左右，实现预期增速目标仍需各领域政策的合力和努力。此外，本次政府工作报告提出的赤字率和赤字规模所对应的名义GDP增速约为7.4%，高于上年政府工作报告对应的名义增速0.5个百分点，高于上年名义GDP增速2.7个百分点，这意味着2024年稳增长的力度相较2023年应有所加大，“进”和“立”的政策力度应有所加强，促进名义GDP增速有所回升，缩小宏观增长与微观感受之间的差距。二、扩内需将与供给侧结构性改革紧密融合，统筹消费和投资对经济的拉动作用实现5%的目标增速离不开“有潜能的消费”和“有效益的投资”，形成消费和投资相互促进的良性循环。中央经济工作会议提出需要“形成消费和投资相互促进的良性循环”，本次报告则对中央经济工作会议对于扩大内需的要求进行了细化部署。我们此前多次呼吁需要加大供给侧结构性改革与稳消费、促消费政策的有机融合：提升高质量产品供给以及养老、医疗等短板领域的产品与服务供给，不仅有利于扩展消费需求，也有助于缓和供需失衡的矛盾；拓展有利于扩大消费的公共领域和产业领域的投资空间，不仅有助于扩大有效投资，也有助于改善消费环境；当前制约经济良性循环的重要原因就在于最终消费需求不足，而消费需求的改善则为投资的扩张提供动力与空间。从促进消费稳定增长来看，本次报告首先提出通过“增加收入”激发消费潜能。当前制约我国消费增长的瓶颈主要是居民收入缺口尚未完全弥合，居民资产负债表恶化影响了居民的信心与预期。提振消费的关键依然在于提升居民的收入水平与预期，2023年居民收入增速有所回升，但相较常态增长趋势线仍有6%左右的缺口，同时因房产价格下行与股票市场走低，居民资产增速显著回落，财富缩水效应之下居民的消费意愿也有所趋弱。因此促进消费稳定增长首先需要增加居民收入，提升居民消费能力。我们依然建议通过发放现金补贴与数字货币等方式帮助居民修复资产负债表、提振居民消费信心。本次报告提出通过“优化供给”激发消费潜能，体现出供给与消费的结合。一方面培育壮大新型消费，积极培育智能家居、文娱旅游、体育赛事、国货“潮品”等新的消费增长点；另一方面鼓励和推动消费品的以旧换新，从存量中挖掘新的增长点。本次报告还提出通过“减少限制性措施”激发消费潜能，后���或将在购房以及新能源汽车购买方面放宽购置条件，以促进大宗消费。从扩大有效投资来看，一方面需要更好发挥政府投资的带动作用，进一步提升财政资金的投入产出效率，优化财政支出结构。根据各省政府工作报告，虽然今年多数省份固定资产投资增速均有下调，但重大项目依然是各省扩大有效投资的主要抓手，后续应加强民生等经济社会薄弱领域补短板，推进防洪排涝抗灾基础设施建设，推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造，加快实施“十四五”规划重大工程项目。财政资金更多向教育事业发展、医疗卫生服务、社会保障水平等民生领域重点倾斜，特别是专项债作为资本金的范围可以进一步向城中村改造、保障性住房等民生领域倾斜，在拉动投资的同时保障民生。其中，超大特大城市商品房销售额占全国商品房销售比例接近四成，本轮超大、特大城市开展城中村改造具有较强的示范作用，将进一步释放核心城市经济发展潜力，对消费提振也有积极作用。另一方面需要重点加大“科技创新、新型基础设施、节能减排降碳”等“有资金效益”领域中的投资，进一步释放新产业、新业态、新模式对于其他领域的辐射带动作用。此外，本次报告还重点提出“着力稳定和扩大民间投资”，近年来民营企业亏损面较大，“不敢投、不愿投”之下民间投资增速持续下行，通过给与民营企业更多的财政和金融政策支持，在重大投资项目中积极引入民间投资参与，提供更好的营商环境，提振民营企业家信心，才能更好激发微观主体活力，激发经济的内生增长动能。三、着力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力，努力提升全要素生产率推进现代产业体系建设与发展新质生产力为重点任务之首。本次政府工作报告将“大力推进现代化产业体系建设、加快发展新质生产力”作为2024年的首要工作任务。主要目标是以科技创新推动产业创新，加快推进新型工业化，提高全要素生产率，不断塑造发展新动能新优势。当前我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段，传统的经济增长红利和动能有所趋缓，对生产力质量提出了新的要求。新质生产力是总书记于2023年9月在东北调研时首次提出，随后被写入中央经济工作会议公报。新质生产力指以科技创新为经济增长新引擎、以新兴产业和未来产业为载体，符合高质量发展要求的新型生产力，是推动构建现代化产业体系的关键力量。新质生产力从功能来看主要表现为全要素生产率的提升，可以提高经济运行的增长中枢。我国目前的全要素生产率在近年来有所走低，相距美国等发达经济体仍有较大差距，在制度与技术创新领域还存在一定短板与不足，发展新质生产力是我国提升全要素生产率的必然选择。关注传统产业的技术改造升级以及数字经济的创新发展。本次报告在现代产业体系建设方面首先提出产业链供应链的优化升级，这要求加快工业经济与制造业的高端化、智能化、绿色化转型，加大对传统产业改造的投资力度。在积极培育新兴产业和未来产业方面，本次报告提及新能源汽车、新能源、生物制造、生命科学等相关领域，并提出促进战略性新兴产业融合集群发展。此外，我们认为数字技术和实体经济深度融合有助于加快新质生产力的形成。2022年，我国数字经济占GDP比重仅为41.5%，仍落后于英美等发达国家，但数字规模达到50.2万亿元，位居世界第二位，鉴于数字经济的“规模经济”特征以及对于传统产业的提升作用，建议持续促进数字经济和实体经济深度融合发展，推动智慧工厂、智慧供应链、智能车间等智能制造的建设，深入推进服务业数字化转型发展，持续推动数字产业化升级，集中优势力量做大做强5G、物联网、大数据等数字产业，深入挖掘区块链、人工智能等领域的发展潜力。四、财政政策以“适度加力、提质增效”为总基调，赤字率虽未突破3%，但财政政策力度有所增强加大财政支出、调增新增专项债规模以及发行特别国债是用好财政政策空间的主要手段，财政政策力度有所加强。本次政府工作报告延续了2023年中央经济工作会议以及政府工作报告关于财政加力的总基调，但并未突破3%的赤字率安排。报告指出，一是将通过税收的恢复性增长以及调入资金增加1.1万亿一般公共预算支出，二是安排地方政府专项债券3.9万亿，较上年增加1000亿，三是将发行1万亿超长期特别国债，并将连续几年发行。我们认为，破3%财政赤字率体现了“用好现有财政政策空间”的取向，也为后续赤字率的调整留下一定空间。地方政府专项债规模的调增或将使得2024年地方政府杠杆率较上年上升1个百分点左右，有助于缓解地方政府的财政收支压力，也有助于提振地方政府稳增长的能力与意愿。连续发行超长期特别国债超出预期，此前并未出台过特别国债连续发行数年的政策，尽管1万亿超长期特别国债不纳入赤字，但特别国债的持有人可以是中央银行，且部分地区已经在为超长期特别国债储备项目，这有助于财政发力的空间进一步打开，也有助于“强化国家重大战略任务和基本民生财力保障”。根据我们测算，今年广义赤字规模将较去年考虑万亿增发国债后的8.68万亿增加0.28万亿至8.96万亿，广义赤字率为6.6%，保持近年来较高水平。财政支出提质增效的要求并未放松，持续强调“切实把财政资金用在刀刃上”。本次政府工作报告再次明确“严控一般性支出”、“严肃财经纪律，加强财会监督，严禁搞面子工程、形象工程，坚决制止铺张浪费”，“各级政府要习惯过紧日子”等提法。提升资金使用效率可以从以下几个方面着手：一是持续优化财政支出结构。考虑到目前投资乘数低于消费乘数，支出结构可投资、消费并重。一方面，财政支出可进一步向社会民生领域倾斜，稳就业压力之下应继续加大社保就业支出力度，同时保障教育、健康等民生短板领域、薄弱环节支持力度；另一方面，基建相关支出仍可保持稳定，但应更加注重提升基建支出资金效益，促进基建支出向消费基础设施、养老基础设施、数字基数设施等领域倾斜，并加大吸引民间资本投资；同时，积极探索促进消费的举措，建议向低收入群体发放现金或数字货币，特别是针对边际消费倾向比较高的中低收入人群；此外，党政机关要严格落实过紧日子要求，压减一般性支出。二是加强财政改革管理。包括不断强化预算绩效管理，加大财会监督力度，落实落细地方债常态化严监管等，同时还需持续深化财税财政体制改革，以新一轮改革为契机提升财税体制运行效率。三是加强政策协调配合。财政政策要与货币、就业、产业、区域、科技、环保等政策协调配合，提升政策协调性、连续性，形成政策合力，更好发挥财政政策效果。四是后续需加强专项债“借用管还”管理，做好项目储备并优化投向，适当向新基建、消费等对需求拉动、经济修复更有助力的领域倾斜；同时依托国企改革加大融资平台整合，关停并转部分无效或低效运作平台，提升国资效率，逐步发挥股权财政作用。五、货币政策延续稳健基调，更加注重提升结构性政策工具的效能从“发挥双重功能”到“加强双重调节”，货币政策需要进一步加强调节经济运行的实际效果。不同于2023年中央经济工作会议提出的“发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能”，本次报告提出“加强总量和结构双重调节”。我们认为，从发挥功能到加强调节，体现出本次报告对于货币政策效果的强调。由于居民消费、购房以及企业部门特别是私营企业部门的投资动力或存在不足，市场自发的融资需求偏弱，一度出现广义货币供给M2同比增速高于社会融资规模存量同比的现象，宽货币向宽信用的传导存在阻滞，十年期国债收益率持续下行并探至低位，出现一定“资金沉淀空转”的现象。中央经济工作会议提出，保持社融、M2同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配，并将“价格水平预期目标”纳入明年货币供给与融资增速考量范围，体现出2024年货币政策的“锚”有所变化，将维护价格稳定、推动价格温和回升作为货币', 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'2024年全国两会在3月4-5日开幕。国务院总理李强于今日在人大开幕会上作政府工作报告。报告提出了今年发展的主要预期目标和工作重点。主要预期目标为经济增长5%，财政货币政策等方面符合预期。报告强调坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破，增强宏观政策取向一致性。工作重点包括推进现代化产业体系建设、深入实施科教兴国战略、扩大国内需求、坚定不移深化改革、扩大高水平对外开放、化解重点领域风险、推进乡村全面振兴、推动城乡融合和区域协调发展、加强生态文明建设、切实保障和改善民生等。在建设现代化产业体系方面，政府工作报告提及，加快发展新质生产力，充分发挥创新主导作用,以科技创新推动产业创新,加快推进新型工业化,提高全要素生产率,不断塑造发展新动能新优势,促进社会生产力实现新的跃升。新质生产力由习近平总书记2023年9月在黑龙江考察时首次提出，此后被正式写入中央文件。新质生产力是由技术革命性突破、生产要素创新性配置、产业深度转型升级而催生的当代先进生产力，它以劳动者、劳动资料、劳动对象及其优化组合的质变为基本内涵，以全要素生产率提升为核心标志。数字经济时代的新质生产力是以数字化、网络化、智能化的新技术为支撑，以科技创新为核心驱动力，以深化高技术应用为主要特征，产业层面要巩固战略性新兴产业、提前布局未来产业、改造提升传统产业。本段重点提及了要加快前沿新兴氢能、新材料、创新药等产业发展，积极打造生物制造、商业航天、低空经济等新增长引擎，制定支持数字经济高质量发展政策，积极推进数字产业，深化大数据、人工智能等研发应用，开展“人工智能+”行动。我国在相关新兴领域已有所积淀，新兴领域已逐步实现国产化替代。2023年生成式人工智能呈现百花齐放的局面，各大厂商相继推出自研大模型，预计未来国家将继续大力发展新兴领域，数字经济涉及的相关行业，特别是与数字基础设施相关的电讯和硬件半导体、与数字经济和实体经济融合，人工智能应用落地的互联网平台公司等，有望持续受惠。', 'content': 'The 2024 National Two Sessions will open on March 4-5. Premier Li Qiang of the State Council delivered a government work report at the opening session of the National People\\'s Congress today. The report puts forward the main expected goals and work priorities for this year\\'s development. The main expected target is economic growth of 5%, and fiscal and monetary policies are in line with expectations. The report emphasizes the need to pursue progress while maintaining stability, promote stability through advancement, establish first and then break, and enhance the consistency of macro policy orientations. Work priorities include promoting the construction of a modern industrial system, in-depth implementation of the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education, expanding domestic demand, unswervingly deepening reforms, expanding high-level opening up to the outside world, resolving risks in key areas, promoting comprehensive rural revitalization, promoting urban-rural integration and coordinated regional development, and strengthening Ecological civilization construction, effective protection and improvement of people\\'s livelihood, etc. In terms of building a modern industrial system, the government work report mentions accelerating the development of new productive forces, giving full play to the leading role of innovation, promoting industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, accelerating new industrialization, improving total factor productivity, and constantly shaping new drivers of development and new advantages. Promote social productivity to achieve a new leap. New quality productivity was first proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping during his inspection in Heilongjiang in September 2023, and has since been officially written into central documents. New quality productivity is the contemporary advanced productivity spawned by revolutionary breakthroughs in technology, innovative allocation of production factors, and in-depth transformation and upgrading of industries. Productivity improvements are a core hallmark. The new productivity in the era of digital economy is supported by new technologies of digitization, networking, and intelligence, with scientific and technological innovation as the core driving force, and the deepening of high-tech applications as the main feature. At the industrial level, strategic emerging industries must be consolidated and laid out in advance. Future industries, transforming and upgrading traditional industries. This paragraph focuses on accelerating the development of cutting-edge emerging hydrogen energy, new materials, innovative drugs and other industries, actively creating new growth engines such as biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy, formulating policies to support the high-quality development of the digital economy, and actively promoting the digital industry , deepen the research and development applications of big data, artificial intelligence, etc., and carry out the \"artificial intelligence +\" action. Our country has accumulated some experience in relevant emerging fields, and emerging fields have gradually realized domestic substitution. In 2023, generative artificial intelligence will flourish. Major manufacturers have successively launched self-developed large models. It is expected that in the future, the country will continue to vigorously develop emerging fields and related industries involved in the digital economy, especially telecommunications and hardware semiconductors related to digital infrastructure. , Internet platform companies that integrate with the digital economy and the real economy and implement artificial intelligence applications are expected to continue to benefit.', 'authorid': UUID('b81de0da-4d50-582f-b461-82ef6ab92b5c'), 'sentimentScore': 0.3330952385440469, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KEN5O1TV9MREE8JV0HT89PEE1BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:54:12 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KEN5O1TV9MREE8JV0HT89PEE1BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2772cd87-d30a-5d74-b22f-94ddc9d3c7f8'), 'title': 'China Economic Review: 2024 Government Work Report – Growth and fiscal targets are in line with expectations, and the economy is expected to continue to recover moderately under the policy of stabilizing growth', 'author': 'Cui Li, Xie Xuan, Yan Huiting', 'orgName': '建银国际证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80101867', 'orgSName': '建银国际证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xews9KEmf2qK0/MDiaiEALI=', 'researcher': '崔历,谢炫,严惠婷', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000301842', '11000428939', '11000444650'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xews9KEmf2qK0/MDiaiEALI=', 'site': 'CCB International Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '建银国际证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626030010_1.pdf?1709916173000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626030010_1.pdf?1709916173000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'China Economic Review: 2024 Government Work Report – Growth and fiscal targets are in line with expectations, and the economy is expected to continue to recover moderately under the policy of stabilizing growth', 'originalAuthor': '崔历,谢炫,严惠婷', 'originalContent': '2024年政府工作报告中的增长目标符合我们的预期。5%的增长目标与我们的年度预期一致。周期因素，包括企业基本面修复，外需转暖，消费进一步正常化和财政支持提升的共同支持下，近期经济指标已有所反弹。预计年内经济持续温和复苏，伴以再通胀将有助减少周期就业和债务压力。报告体现财政支持将持续，有助支持复苏。官方预算赤字定在GDP的3%符合预期，调整预算基金后的有效赤字与去年全年持平，显示预算内财政支持稳定。考虑去年年底特别国债发行的资金使用大多在今年，加上今年新增特别国债等因素，宽口径财政支持力度加大，预计财政取态保持去年四季度以来的温和扩张，有助经济复苏。财政结构上中央对项目支出支持上升，有利缓解地方财政压力。但风险防范的主题意味着大幅刺激的可能性不大。报告强调产业调整和扩大内需并重，关注产业政策和改革措施。高质量发展和新质生产力是政策重点，发展数字和平台经济、供应链优化、产业创新、绿色转型、扩大开放等政策预计持续，也将带动供给和需求的共同提升。先立后破的要求有助减少转型震荡。扩大内需方面，政府投资小幅扩大但投资效率���回报仍是重点。政府强调提升就业和收入以支持消费。关注对就业关键行业(特别是服务行业)的具体政策。财税，数据，外资准入等方面的改革和具体措施也将影响中期宏观和行业发展。', 'content': \"The growth targets in the 2024 Government Work Report are in line with our expectations. The 5% growth target is consistent with our annual guidance. Supported by cyclical factors, including the restoration of corporate fundamentals, warming external demand, further normalization of consumption and increased fiscal support, recent economic indicators have rebounded. It is expected that the economy will continue to recover moderately during the year, accompanied by reflation, which will help reduce cyclical employment and debt pressures. The report shows that fiscal support will continue to help support recovery. The official budget deficit is set at 3% of GDP, in line with expectations, and the effective deficit after adjusting budget funds is the same as last year, indicating stable fiscal support within the budget. Considering that most of the funds from the special treasury bonds issued at the end of last year were used this year, coupled with factors such as the new addition of special treasury bonds this year, wide-scale fiscal support has been increased. It is expected that the fiscal stance will maintain the moderate expansion since the fourth quarter of last year, which will help economic recovery. In terms of fiscal structure, the central government's support for project expenditures has increased, which will help alleviate local fiscal pressures. But the theme of risk aversion means a big stimulus is unlikely. The report emphasizes equal emphasis on industrial adjustment and expansion of domestic demand, and pays attention to industrial policies and reform measures. High-quality development and new productivity are policy priorities. Policies such as the development of the digital and platform economy, supply chain optimization, industrial innovation, green transformation, and wider opening up are expected to continue, which will also drive the joint improvement of supply and demand. The requirement to establish first and then break can help reduce transition shock. In terms of expanding domestic demand, government investment expanded slightly, but investment efficiency and returns remain the focus. The government emphasizes increasing employment and income to support consumption. Pay attention to specific policies for key employment industries (especially service industries). Reforms and specific measures in finance, taxation, data, foreign investment access, etc. will also affect medium-term macro and industry development.\", 'authorid': UUID('9eea1d13-d55b-5c56-9080-34e9fbc2e1fc'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9336912110447884, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'AG1CIMB7U7B80EIT42BHKG9333VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:54:14 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'AG1CIMB7U7B80EIT42BHKG9333VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('cfc65d8d-94d6-5d9c-9e0b-d81d03910b29'), 'title': 'Interpretation of trade data from January to February 2024: How good is the good start for exports?', 'author': 'Zhang Deli ,You Yong', 'orgName': '中泰证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000157', 'orgSName': '中泰证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xScwLakCfCeuioaiE2mR0vc=', 'researcher': '张德礼,游勇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000250135', '11000442740'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xScwLakCfCeuioaiE2mR0vc=', 'site': 'Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中泰证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626028268_1.pdf?1709907780000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626028268_1.pdf?1709907780000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of trade data from January to February 2024: How good is the good start for exports?', 'originalAuthor': '张德礼,游勇', 'originalContent': '2024年前两个月，中国出口5280.1亿美元，进口4028.5亿美元，同比分别增长7.1%和3.5%。出口和进口增速超过2023年12月的2.3%和0.2%，也超出Wind统计的市场预期值2.7%和0.3%。出口方面，有四点值得关注：第一，春节错月导致2024年前两个月出口同比高增，3月出口增速可能回落。2024年1-2月出口明显改善和春节因素有关，我们发现通常春节越晚，前两个月出口占一季度的比例就越高，原因是春节后的复工复产需要时间。2023年春节是近20年最早的一次，当年1-2月出口同比降至-8.4%。而2024年春节偏晚，春节错月产生的“低基数”推动今年1-2月出口同比高增。按历史规���估算，2024年1-2月出口占一季度比例约为65.8%，推算得2024年一季度出口同比0.9%，其中3月出口同比下降9.3%。第二，国别和地区视角看，前两个月中国对美国和东盟的出口增速回升，对欧盟的出口增速回落。2024年前两个月，中国对美国、欧盟（含英国）和东盟出口的同比分别为2.6%、-2.3%和0.1%，同比分别提高9.5个百分点、下降1.0个百分点与提高6.2个百分点。三大贸易伙伴中，对美出口相对较强，和美国部分行业补库存有关。剔除掉春节错月的影响后，今年前两个月中国对欧盟、东盟的出口同比可能均下降。中国对新势力国家和地区的出口保持较高增速，拉动总出口同比增长超过2个百分点。前两个月，中国对俄罗斯、非洲和拉美的出口同比分别为11.8%、15.5%和19.0%，均高于中国整体的出口增速。它们拉动中国总出口同比分别增长0.4、0.8和1.3个百分点。不过相比去年12月，出口增速均有不同程度回落，分别下降21.2、3.2和5.5个百分点。展望未来，新势力国家的需求边际减弱，叠加基数效应影响消退，中国向它们的出口增速可能回落。第三，行业层面，纺织产业链与电子出口增速回升，汽车产业链出口增速回落。今年前两个月，电子、纺织和汽车三大产业链的出口同比分别为1.9%、10.4%和13.1%。电子产业链出口增速较去年12月回升1.4个百分点，纺织产业链出口增速是去年下半年以来的首次转正。汽车产业链出口增速回落，低于去年12月的同比27.6%和两年平均的同比26.7%。汽车产业链出口回落主要受整车拖累，汽车零部件出口增速继续上升。前两个月，汽车与汽车零部件的出口增速分别为12.3%和14.0%，较前值分别下降39.6个百分点和提高6.9个百分点。1-2月汽车整车出口增速的回落和高基数有关，去年1-2月汽车出口额同比增长65.2%，全年出口同比增长69.0%。乘联会数据显示2023年中国汽车出口同比增长56%，其预计2024年出口增速能够达到20%。电子产业链出口分化，手机出口增速回落，电脑出口增速改善。今年前两个月，手机和电脑的出口同比分别为-18.3%和3.0%，增速分别较去年12月的下降17.9和上升6.1个百分点。手机出口增速的波动可能与基数效应有关。去年三季度以来，手机单月出口增速波动较大。两年平均同比口径下，手机出口增速在去年9-11月转正，而后再度降至负值。考虑到当前半导体周期处于底部，手机出口增速有望迎来反弹。第四，居民消费品出口增速进一步改善，或因海外开启补库。前两个月，家电、灯具和家具出口同比分别增长17.6%、19.2%和28.7%，增速较前值分别提升2.9、18.1和16.3个百分点。服装、鞋靴出口同比分别为7.9%和7.8%，都是去年下半年以来的首次同比正增长。正如我们一直所强调的，去年底以来，海外低库存下，贸易商补库增加了从中国的进口需求，居民消费品出口受益明显。2024年全年来看，相关产品的出口可能会延续改善。进口方面，前两个月中国进口增速回升主要是电子产品和资源品的拉动，有两点值得关注。第一，国别和地区层面看，对中国台湾、韩国、中国香港和东盟进口增速大幅回升。2024年前两个月，主要国别和地区中，对中国台湾、印度、韩国、中国香港和东盟进口的同比，较2013年12月回升幅度都在5个百分点以上。从进口额看，前两个月对中国总进口同比改善贡献较大的国家和地区是中国台湾、东盟和韩国，分别拉动中国总进口同比增长0.5、0.4和0.5个百分点，环比分别改善1.2、0.8和0.5个百分点。对欧盟、美国和日本的进口拖累总进口同比下降1.1、1.1和0.3个百分点，拉动幅度较2023年12月的分别下降1.1、0.6和0.4个百分点。第二，进口商品方面，前两个月电子产品对进口增速回升贡献最大，资源品进口增速亦改善。重点商品中，前两个月电子产品（电脑、半导体、集成电路）拉动总进口同比增长1.5个百分点，较2023年12月的回升1.9个百分点，贡献了同比增速变化的56.7%。资源品（铁矿砂、铜矿砂、原油和天然气等）拉动总进口同比增长2.9个百分点，较2023年12月的回升0.8个百分点。大豆进口同比下降22.2%，跌幅扩大3.1个百分点。电子产品中，集成电路与半导体进口增速开始转正。电子产品中，前两个月电脑、集成电路、半导体进口额同比分别为67.3%、15.3%和5.0%，增速分别较去年12月上升39.9、18.7和22.9个百分点。全球半导体周期可能见底，消费电子产业链景气度有望延续改善。进口资源品延续量涨价跌的格局，进口价格多数下降。进口价格方面，前两个月，天然气、大豆、铜矿砂和铁矿砂价格同比分别为-23.5%、-14.7%、-3.3%和13.6%，增速分别较去年12月下降3.1、1.7、11.2和20.3个百分点。原油价格同比下降2.2%，降幅较去年12月收窄2.9个百分点，或与今年初以来的中东形势有关。进口量方面，前两个月，天然气、铁矿砂与原油进口量同比分别增长23.6%、8.1%和5.1%，同比增速分别上升0.5个百分点、下降2.9个百分点和上升4.4个百分点。总的来说，今年1-2月中国的出口“开门红”，受春节的影响因素较大。此外，外需也呈现边际改善，体现在海外补库带动的消费品出口好转，以及电子产业链出口增速回升等。3月中国出口面临回落压力。展望全年，在全球需求改善的同时，需要警惕中国出口订单流出的风险。进口方面，电子产业链推动中国1-2月进口好转，后续进口表现取决于“两会”后逆周期调节政策的力度与经济恢复的节奏。风险提示：政策变动，经济恢复不及预期。', 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'2024年前两个月，中国出口5280.1亿美元，进口4028.5亿美元，同比分别增长7.1%和3.5%。出口和进口增速超过2023年12月的2.3%和0.2%，也超出Wind统计的市场预期值2.7%和0.3%。出口方面，有四点值得关注：第一，春节错月导致2024年前两个月出口同比高增，3月出口增速可能回落。2024年1-2月出口明显改善和春节因素有关，我们发现通常春节越晚，前两个月出口占一季度的比例就越高，原因是春节后的复工复产需要时间。2023年春节是近20年最早的一次，当年1-2月出口同比降至-8.4%。而2024年春节偏晚，春节错月产生的“低基数”推动今年1-2月出口同比高增。按历史规律估算，2024年1-2月出口占一季度比例约为65.8%，推算得2024年一季度出口同比0.9%，其中3月出口同比下降9.3%。第二，国别和地区视角看，前两个月中国对美国和东盟的出口增速回升，对欧盟的出口增速回落。2024年前两个月，中国对美国、欧盟（含英国）和东盟出口的同比分别为2.6%、-2.3%和0.1%，同比分别提高9.5个百分点、下降1.0个百分点与提高6.2个百分点。三大贸易伙伴中，对美出口相对较强，和美国部分行业补库存有关。剔除掉春节错月的影响后，今年前两个月中国对欧盟、东盟的出口同比可能均下降。中国对新势力国家和地区的出口保持较高增速，拉动总出口同比增长超过2个百分点。前两个月，中国对俄罗斯、非洲和拉美的出口同比分别为11.8%、15.5%和19.0%，均高于中国整体的出口增速。它们拉动中国总出口同比分别增长0.4、0.8和1.3个百分点。不过相比去年12月，出口增速均有不同程度回落，分别下降21.2、3.2和5.5个百分点。展望未来，新势力国家的需求边际减弱，叠加基数效应影响消退，中国向它们的出口增速可能回落。第三，行业层面，纺织产业链与电子出口增速回升，汽车产业链出口增速回落。今年前两个月，电子、纺织和汽车三大产业链的出口同比分别为1.9%、10.4%和13.1%。电子产业链出口增速较去年12月回升1.4个百分点，纺织产业链出口增速是去年下半年以来的首次转正。汽车产业链出口增速回落，低于去年12月的同比27.6%和两年平均的同比26.7%。汽车产业链出口回落主要受整车拖累，汽车零部件出口增速继续上升。前两个月，汽车与汽车零部件的出口增速分别为12.3%和14.0%，较前值分别下降39.6个百分点和提高6.9个百分点。1-2月汽车整车出口增速的回落和高基数有关，去年1-2月汽车出口额同比增长65.2%，全年出口同比增长69.0%。乘联会数据显示2023年中国汽车出口同比增长56%，其预计2024年出口增速能够达到20%。电子产业链出口分化，手机出口增速回落，电脑出口增速改善。今年前两个月，手机和电脑的出口同比分别为-18.3%和3.0%，增速分别较去年12月的下降17.9和上升6.1个百分点。手机出口增速的波动可能与基数效应有关。去年三季度以来，手机单月出口增速波动较大。两年平均同比口径下，手机出口增速在去年9-11月转正，而后再度降至负值。考虑到当前半导体周期处于底部，手机出口增速有望迎来反弹。第四，居民消费品出口增速进一步改善，或因海外开启补库。前两个月，家电、灯具和家具出口同比分别增长17.6%、19.2%和28.7%，增速较前值分别提升2.9、18.1和16.3个百分点。服装、鞋靴出口同比分别为7.9%和7.8%，都是去年下半年以来的首次同比正增长。正如我们一直所强调的，去年底以来，海外低库存下，贸易商补库增加了从中国的进口需求，居民消费品出口受益明显。2024年全年来看，相关产品的出口可能会延续改善。进口方面，前两个月中国进口增速回升主要是电子产品和资源品的拉动，有两点值得关注。第一，国别和地区层面看，对中国台湾、韩国、中国香港和东盟进口增速大幅回升。2024年前两个月，主要国别和地区中，对中国台湾、印度、韩国、中国香港和东盟进口的同比，较2013年12月回升幅度都在5个百分点以上。从进口额看，前两个月对中国总进口同比改善贡献较大的国家和地区是中国台湾、东盟和韩国，分别拉动中国总进口同比增长0.5、0.4和0.5个百分点，环比分别改善1.2、0.8和0.5个百分点。对欧盟、美国和日本的进口拖累总进口同比下降1.1、1.1和0.3个百分点，拉动幅度较2023年12月的分别下降1.1、0.6和0.4个百分点。第二，进口商品方面，前两个月电子产品对进口增速回升贡献最大，资源品进口增速亦改善。重点商品中，前两个月电子产品（电脑、半导体、集成电路）拉动总进口同比增长1.5个百分点，较2023年12月的回升1.9个百分点，贡献了同比增速变化的56.7%。资源品（铁矿砂、铜矿砂、原油和天然气等）拉动总进口同比增长2.9个百分点，较2023年12月的回升0.8个百分点。大豆进口同比下降22.2%，跌幅扩大3.1个百分点。电子产品中，集成电路与半导体进口增速开始转正。电子产品中，前两个月电脑、集成电路、半导体进口额同比分别为67.3%、15.3%和5.0%，增速分别较去年12月上升39.9、18.7和22.9个百分点。全球半导体周期可能见底，消费电子产业链景气度有望延续改善。进口资源品延续量涨价跌的格局，进口价格多数下降。进口价格方面，前两个月，天然气、大豆、铜矿砂和铁矿砂价格同比分别为-23.5%、-14.7%、-3.3%和13.6%，增速分别较去年12月下降3.1、1.7、11.2和20.3个百分点。原油价格同比下降2.2%，降幅较去年12月收窄2.9个百分点，或与今年初以来的中东形势有关。进口量方面，前两个月，天然气、铁矿砂与原油进口量同比分别增长23.6%、8.1%和5.1%，同比增速分别上升0.5个百分点、下降2.9个百分点和上升4.4个百分点。总的来说，今年1-2月中国的出口“开门红”，受春节的影响因素较大。此外，外需也呈现边际改善，体现在海外补库带动的消费品出口好转，以及电子产业链出口增速回升等。3月中国出口面临回落压力。展望全年，在全球需求改善的同时，需要警惕中国出口订单流出的风险。进口方面，电子产业链推动中国1-2月进口好转，后续进口表现取决于“两会”后逆周期调节政策的力度与经济恢复的节奏。风险提示：政策变动，经济恢复不及预期。', 'authorid': UUID('b9667b23-5191-55a2-9afc-91e894a5f714'), 'sentimentScore': -0.007517270743846893, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'N7O9J4JNSLAPHDCU6H1FG7TR93VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:54:19 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'N7O9J4JNSLAPHDCU6H1FG7TR93VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d227c96e-54bf-5cfb-a33c-f13b95001210'), 'title': 'Countercyclical factors continue to work to stabilize exchange rates', 'author': 'Huang Fusheng, Gao Xiaojie', 'orgName': '中邮证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80036717', 'orgSName': '中邮证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xVgO1i83h+rY7hmUVrqwWrw=', 'researcher': '黄付生,高晓洁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172600', '11000460131'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xVgO1i83h+rY7hmUVrqwWrw=', 'site': 'China Post Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中邮证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626027788_1.pdf?1709906285000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626027788_1.pdf?1709906285000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Countercyclical factors continue to work to stabilize exchange rates', 'originalAuthor': '黄付生,高晓洁', 'originalContent': '核心观点逆周期因子持续使用或指示人民币贬值压力。 开年后美元兑人民币汇率中间价保持在 7.10 左右，但人民币的贬值压力却在开年后逐渐加大。拉长时间周期来看， 2023 年 2 季度后逆周期因子即开始常态化使用，通过调节中间价的方式来稳定美元兑人民币汇率波动。目前我们观察到这一逆周期调节工具仍在中间价的形成中发挥作用。美元指数对人民币汇率影响显著。 根据 CFETS 汇率指数的形成机制，我们可以将影响美元兑人民币汇率的因素拆解为美元兑非美货币的强弱和人民币兑非美货币的强弱，前者我们可以用美元指数近似表示，而后者可以用 CFETS 汇率指数近似表示。因此我们能够看到，在CFETS 汇率指数保持稳定的背景下，人民币汇率与美元指数的强弱息息相关。降息节奏或慢于市场预期， 人民币阶段性的贬值压力难以短期缓解。 自 2023 年 10 月美国国债再融资规模不及预期后，美债收益率经历了一段时间的下行趋势，人民币贬值压力也得到了显著的缓解。 往后看，我们倾向认为不易过早地预期美联储的降息时点，人民币贬值压力短期内仍存。美元指数不易低估。 在美国非金融企业和居民部门整体资产负债情况较好的背景下，我们也观察到美国经济的全要素生产率从底部反弹，以上两者分别从负债端和资产端同时减轻了高利率对美国实体经济部门的压力，使美联储不降息的“底气”更足。同时，当下高企的房价增加了未来房租价格走高的隐忧，加上偏紧的就业市场和不稳定的油价，美联储在降息上将更加谨慎。 美元指数短期内恐有较强支撑。尽管短期承压但人民币长期不存在贬值趋势。 短期来看，国内利率仍有下降的空间， 与美国利差的扩大将加大人民币短期的贬值压力。而长期来看，随着“两会”后各项稳增长政策逐步发力，我国经济基本面有望企稳回升，吸引更多的国际资本流入。 同时完整的工业体系将持续为我国带来贸易账户盈余，有力地支持人民币汇率摆脱短期“热钱”的扰动。风险提示：美联储降息节奏快于预期； 国内经济基本面修复速度低于预期；政策风险。', 'content': 'The core view is that the continued use of countercyclical factors may indicate pressure on RMB depreciation. After the start of the year, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB remained at around 7.10, but the depreciation pressure on the RMB gradually increased after the start of the year. Looking at the long-term period, countercyclical factors will begin to be used regularly after the second quarter of 2023 to stabilize the fluctuation of the U.S. dollar against the RMB exchange rate by adjusting the central parity rate. We currently observe that this countercyclical adjustment tool is still playing a role in the formation of the central parity rate. The US dollar index has a significant impact on the RMB exchange rate. According to the formation mechanism of the CFETS exchange rate index, we can break down the factors that affect the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the RMB into the strength of the U.S. dollar against non-U.S. currencies and the strength of the RMB against non-U.S. currencies. The former can be approximated by the U.S. dollar index, while the latter It can be approximated by the CFETS exchange rate index. Therefore, we can see that under the background that the CFETS exchange rate index remains stable, the RMB exchange rate is closely related to the strength of the US dollar index. The pace of interest rate cuts may be slower than market expectations, and the periodic depreciation pressure on the RMB will be difficult to alleviate in the short term. Since the refinancing scale of U.S. Treasury bonds fell short of expectations in October 2023, U.S. bond yields have experienced a period of downward trend, and the pressure on RMB depreciation has also been significantly alleviated. Looking forward, we tend to believe that it is not easy to prematurely anticipate the timing of the Fed\\'s interest rate cut, and the pressure for RMB depreciation will still exist in the short term. The U.S. dollar index is not easily underestimated. Against the background that the overall asset and liability situation of the U.S. non-financial enterprises and residential sectors is relatively good, we have also observed that the total factor productivity of the U.S. economy has rebounded from the bottom. The above two have simultaneously alleviated the impact of high interest rates on U.S. entities from the liability side and the asset side respectively. The pressure on the economic sector has given the Federal Reserve more confidence not to cut interest rates. At the same time, the current high housing prices have increased concerns about higher rent prices in the future. Coupled with the tight job market and unstable oil prices, the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in cutting interest rates. The U.S. dollar index may have strong support in the short term. Despite the short-term pressure, there is no long-term depreciation trend of the RMB. In the short term, domestic interest rates still have room to fall, and the widening interest rate differential with the United States will increase short-term depreciation pressure on the RMB. In the long term, with the gradual implementation of various stabilizing growth policies after the \"Two Sessions\", my country\\'s economic fundamentals are expected to stabilize and rebound, attracting more international capital inflows. At the same time, a complete industrial system will continue to bring a trade account surplus to our country, strongly supporting the RMB exchange rate to get rid of the disturbance of short-term \"hot money\". Risk warning: The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates faster than expected; the recovery of domestic economic fundamentals is slower than expected; policy risks.', 'authorid': UUID('0c8defe7-9c05-5154-9a77-4cc49fb745c4'), 'sentimentScore': 0.12149010598659515, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8HUHMD9F1M81PQSM8O9E8G4KU3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:54:21 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8HUHMD9F1M81PQSM8O9E8G4KU3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('02f2c490-5c66-59e3-89b7-f65da511c63f'), 'title': 'Comments on trade data from January to February 2024: Base effect dominates, export performance is better', 'author': 'Ye Fan, Wang Runmeng, Liu Yanhong', 'orgName': '西南证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000296', 'orgSName': '西南证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xe/CjssIFMk4ZDs31E1OYtM=', 'researcher': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000263735', '11000418732', '11000440469'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xe/CjssIFMk4ZDs31E1OYtM=', 'site': 'Southwest Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '西南证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626027768_1.pdf?1709904893000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626027768_1.pdf?1709904893000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on trade data from January to February 2024: Base effect dominates, export performance is better', 'originalAuthor': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'originalContent': '摘要出口表现优于进口，后续增速或有波动。按美元计，2024年1-2月份我国货物贸易进出口总额同比增长5.5%，其中出口同比增长7.1%；进口同比增长3.5%，出口、进口增速都明显回升。从整体海外形势看，欧美经济增长趋缓、商品需求偏弱的基本趋势不变，但欧美经济仍有一定韧性，目前看海外经济的不确定性将对后续我国对外贸易形成持续影响。去年出口基数明显升高，或将影响后续短期出口增速表现。我国对东盟、欧盟、美国出口增速回升。1-2月，我国对东盟、欧盟、美、日进口、出口增速变化表现分化，对东盟、欧盟、美国出口，从东盟进口增速同比回升，从美国、欧盟、日本进口，对日本出口增速有所回落。其他贸易伙伴方面，我国与一带一路贸易关系较稳定，与拉丁美洲和非洲的进出口增速回升较快。基数回落下，大多主要出口商品增速回升。从主要出口商品看，大多主要商品出口金额有所回升，机电产品和高新技术产品出口增速都有所回升，劳动密集型商品增速回升较多。从出口数量看，水产品、粮食、稀土、箱包及类似容器、鞋靴、陶瓷产品、未锻轧铝及铝材、机电产品中的手机、家用电器、集成电路、船舶以及液晶平板显示模组的增速较去年有不同程度的回升。从出口金额看，机电产品和高新技术产品出口金额增速较2023年全年以及去年12月份有所回升；基数效应及海外需求影响下，劳动密集型产品的出口金额增速大多明显回升；部分上游商品出口金额同比增速放缓。短期来看，由于高利率持续作用于经济，海外需求可能震荡偏弱运行，我国出口可能仍受到一定影响。农产品进口增速走弱，而原材料和中游商品进口表现较好。1-2月，主要农产品进口量价增速都走弱，主要是受到基数和国际粮价下行的影响，后续若不出现地缘政治或者极端天气等黑天鹅事件，粮食供应端或逐渐改善，支持价格回落。从主要上游商品看，1-2月，铜矿砂及其精矿、煤及褐煤进口同比量升价减，原油、成品油、未锻轧铜及铜材、铁矿砂及其精矿进口量价齐升，原木及锯材、天然及合成橡胶(包括胶乳)进口量价同减。由于国内稳增长政策持续发力，国内企业生产需求回升，1-2月机电产品和高新技术产品进口金额分别同比增长7.7%和11.9%。后续随着国内复工复产，以及政策加持下，进口增速有望逐渐回升。风险提示：国内复苏不及预期，海外经济下行超预期。', 'content': \"Summary: Exports perform better than imports, and subsequent growth rates may fluctuate. In terms of US dollars, my country's total import and export of goods trade increased by 5.5% year-on-year from January to February 2024, of which exports increased by 7.1% year-on-year; imports increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the growth rates of both exports and imports rebounded significantly. Looking at the overall overseas situation, the basic trend of slowing economic growth and weak demand for goods in Europe and the United States remains unchanged. However, the European and American economies still have a certain degree of resilience. At present, the uncertainty of overseas economies will have a lasting impact on my country's foreign trade in the future. The export base increased significantly last year, which may affect the subsequent short-term export growth performance. my country's export growth to ASEAN, the European Union, and the United States has picked up. From January to February, the growth rate of my country's imports and exports to ASEAN, the EU, the United States, and Japan showed divergence. The growth rate of exports to ASEAN, the EU, and the United States, and the import growth rate from ASEAN rebounded year-on-year. The growth rate of China's imports from the United States, the European Union, and Japan, and exports to Japan The growth rate has slowed down. In terms of other trading partners, my country's trade relations with the Belt and Road Initiative are relatively stable, and the growth rate of imports and exports with Latin America and Africa has picked up rapidly. With the base falling, the growth rate of most major export commodities picked up. In terms of major export commodities, the export value of most major commodities has rebounded, the export growth rate of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products has rebounded, and the growth rate of labor-intensive commodities has rebounded more. In terms of export volume, aquatic products, grain, rare earths, bags and similar containers, shoes and boots, ceramic products, unwrought aluminum and aluminum materials, mobile phones, household appliances, integrated circuits, ships and LCD flat panel display modules in electromechanical products The growth rate has rebounded to varying degrees compared with last year. In terms of export value, the growth rate of export value of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products has rebounded compared with the whole year of 2023 and December last year; under the influence of base effect and overseas demand, the growth rate of export value of labor-intensive products has mostly rebounded significantly; some The export value of upstream commodities slowed down year-on-year. In the short term, as high interest rates continue to affect the economy, overseas demand may fluctuate and be weak, and my country's exports may still be affected to a certain extent. The growth rate of agricultural product imports weakened, while the import of raw materials and midstream commodities performed better. From January to February, the import volume and price growth of major agricultural products weakened, mainly due to the impact of the base and the decline in international food prices. If there are no black swan events such as geopolitics or extreme weather in the future, the food supply may gradually improve, supporting Prices fell back. In terms of major upstream commodities, from January to February, imports of copper ore and its concentrates, coal and lignite increased in volume and decreased in price year-on-year, while imports of crude oil, refined oil, unwrought copper and copper materials, iron ore and their concentrates Both volume and price increased, while import volume and price of logs and sawn timber, natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) both decreased. Due to the continued efforts of domestic stabilizing growth policies and the rebound in production demand of domestic enterprises, the import value of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products increased by 7.7% and 11.9% year-on-year respectively from January to February. With the subsequent resumption of domestic work and production and the support of policies, the import growth rate is expected to gradually pick up. Risk warning: Domestic recovery is less than expected, and overseas economic downturn is greater than expected.\", 'authorid': UUID('d3389991-b216-5572-82e3-6396ad6aed04'), 'sentimentScore': -0.39085209369659424, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '1808DLLJC5ILSNR897V7TEJFORVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:54:47 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '1808DLLJC5ILSNR897V7TEJFORVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5de497ae-04d8-583d-b8c4-d34aae4ba0e8'), 'title': 'Comments on import and export data: Import and export achieved a good start', 'author': 'Yan Xiang, Xu Ruchun', 'orgName': '华福证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000065', 'orgSName': '华福证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xcP1ZjwVTtNcSailDbG/2TU=', 'researcher': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000223033', '11000339132'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xcP1ZjwVTtNcSailDbG/2TU=', 'site': 'Huafu Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华福证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626027767_1.pdf?1709905333000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626027767_1.pdf?1709905333000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on import and export data: Import and export achieved a good start', 'originalAuthor': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'originalContent': '事件：3月7日，海关总署发布数据显示，按美元计价，2024年前2个月，我国进出口总额9308.6亿美元，同比增长5.5%，；其中，出口5280.1亿美元，同比增长7.1%，进口4028.5亿美元，增长3.5%；贸易顺差1251.6亿美元，同比扩大20.5%。贸易顺差持续扩张，体现我国进出口持续健康发展。投资要点：分国别来看，2024年前2个月，我国对东盟、美国出口增速实现增长，对欧盟出口增速大幅回暖，对日本出口降幅持续扩大。2024年前2个月，我国对美国出口734.2亿美元，增长5.0%，较12月份累计同比的-13.1%大幅上涨了18个百分点，一转出口收缩颓势；对欧盟的出口额为782.6亿美元，出口累计增速由12月份的-10.2%来到-1.3%，跌幅收窄近9个百分点；对东盟国家的出口额为827.2亿美元，累计增速达到6%，一扫自2023年7月以来的收缩态势；对日本的出口增速为-9.7%，较2023年12月累计的-8.4%扩大1.3个百分点。我国对美国、欧盟、日本以及东盟国家或地区的出口总规模占2024年前2华福证券个月全部出口的48.9%，合计向下拉动我国出口0.5个百分点，跌幅相较于12月份的2.7个百分点收窄2.2个百分点，主要拖累国家为欧盟和日本。分国家来看，日本出口对增速的拖累由12月的0.3个百分点扩大到0.5个百分点，跌幅扩大0.2个百分点；欧盟出口对我国出口增速的拖累保持0.3个百分点不变；美国作为第三大贸易伙伴对出口增速的影响由拉低1个百分点转为带动0.3个百分点；东盟由拖累我国出口增速1.1个百分点转为0，作为我国第一大贸易伙伴，东盟有望成为我国出口贸易的新增长点。从出口产品类别来看，2024年前2个月，机电产品出口出现大幅增加。机电产品作为我国主要出口类别，占出口总值的59.1%。2024年前2个月，机电产品出口同比增长6.1%，增幅较12月的0.3%大幅上涨；从对出口贡献的角度来看，2024年前2个月，机电产品拉动出口3.6个百分点，较12月份的0.3个百分点大幅增加。风险提示一是地缘政治风险超预期；二是宏观经济不及预期；三是海外市场大幅波动等。', 'content': \"Event: On March 7, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that in U.S. dollars, in the first two months of 2024, my country's total import and export volume was US$930.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%; of which, exports were US$528.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% , imports were US$402.85 billion, an increase of 3.5%; the trade surplus was US$125.16 billion, a year-on-year expansion of 20.5%. The trade surplus continues to expand, reflecting the sustained and healthy development of my country's imports and exports. Investment points: Looking at each country, in the first two months of 2024, my country's export growth to ASEAN and the United States has increased, the growth rate of exports to the EU has picked up significantly, and the decline in exports to Japan has continued to expand. In the first two months of 2024, my country's exports to the United States were US$73.42 billion, an increase of 5.0%, a sharp increase of 18 percentage points from the -13.1% year-on-year increase in December, reversing the decline in export contraction; exports to the EU were US$78.26 billion. , the cumulative growth rate of exports increased from -10.2% in December to -1.3%, and the decline narrowed by nearly 9 percentage points; exports to ASEAN countries were US$82.72 billion, with a cumulative growth rate of 6%, sweeping away the decline since July 2023. The contraction trend since last month; the export growth rate to Japan was -9.7%, an expansion of 1.3 percentage points from the cumulative -8.4% in December 2023. The total scale of my country's exports to the United States, the European Union, Japan and ASEAN countries or regions accounted for 48.9% of all exports in the first two months of 2024, which together drove down my country's exports by 0.5 percentage points, compared with the 2.7% decline in December. percentage points narrowed by 2.2 percentage points, with the main dragging countries being the European Union and Japan. In terms of countries, the drag of Japan's exports on growth expanded from 0.3 percentage points in December to 0.5 percentage points, and the decline expanded by 0.2 percentage points; the drag of EU exports on my country's export growth remained unchanged at 0.3 percentage points; the United States, as the third country, The impact of the three major trading partners on export growth has changed from dragging down 1 percentage point to driving 0.3 percentage points; ASEAN has changed from dragging down my country's export growth by 1.1 percentage points to 0. As my country's largest trading partner, ASEAN is expected to become my country's export growth rate. new growth point for trade. From the perspective of export product categories, in the first two months of 2024, exports of mechanical and electrical products increased significantly. As my country's main export category, mechanical and electrical products account for 59.1% of the total export value. In the first two months of 2024, exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 6.1% year-on-year, a sharp increase from the 0.3% increase in December; from the perspective of contribution to exports, in the first two months of 2024, mechanical and electrical products drove exports by 3.6 percentage points, which was higher than the 0.3% increase in December. A significant increase of 0.3 percentage points in December. The first risk warning is that geopolitical risks are higher than expected; the second is that the macro economy is worse than expected; the third is that overseas markets fluctuate significantly, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('91584e59-c8cd-5c63-a616-39b00d7419c0'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9190142005681992, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OGI15ASMK2AJCPAP82TGKRG3CNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:54:50 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OGI15ASMK2AJCPAP82TGKRG3CNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('72e24cf7-daec-5b78-b4ac-3e3f83dcd93f'), 'title': 'Comments on import and export data from January to February 2024: Exports exceed expectations, pay attention to the strong chain extension of intermediate goods trade', 'author': 'Cheng Qiang', 'orgName': '德邦证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000217', 'orgSName': '德邦证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xVQPgw2eHaAg12p7FSALQ9w=', 'researcher': '程强', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000296632'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xVQPgw2eHaAg12p7FSALQ9w=', 'site': 'Debon Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '德邦证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626027764_1.pdf?1709904893000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626027764_1.pdf?1709904893000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on import and export data from January to February 2024: Exports exceed expectations, pay attention to the strong chain extension of intermediate goods trade', 'originalAuthor': '程强', 'originalContent': '核心观点：1-2月中国出口金额（美元计价）同比+7.1%，进口同比+3.5%，进出口金额同比均超市场预期。出口超预期受机电、集成电路等中间品贸易支撑逻辑，进口超预期受2023年1-2月低进口基数及大宗商品进口增加影响。在出口重点商品中，集成电路对出口金额的拉动为0.77%，是出口金额的最大拉动项，在进口重点商品中，集成电路、铁矿砂及其精矿、原油是进口金额拉动项的前三名，分别拉动进口金额+1.77%、1.17%和0.60%，这几大重点商品都是中间品，因此我们建议关注外贸背后中间品贸易强链延链的支撑逻辑：（1）新旧动能切换过程中，中间品贸易有望推动我国制造业转型升级，成为外贸动能增长点；（2）地缘政治变动下，中间品贸易有望增强产业链和供应链韧性，对于应对“脱钩断链”具有较强的现实针对性和长远意义；（3）全球科技周期带动机电产品、集成电路等中间品的增长。在稳政策加持下，三大工程和万亿国债等有望加速制造业等行业优胜劣汰，技术密集型的机电和集成电路产品有望在此进程中受益。事件：2024年1-2月份，中国出口金额（美元计价）同比+7.1%，2023年12月为+2.3%；进口金额（美元计价）同比+3.5%，2023年12月为+0.2%；贸易差额为1251.6亿美元，前值为753.4亿美元。出口：受中间品贸易支撑逻辑，机电、集成电路等产品出口超预期。2024年1-2月人民币计价出口3.75万亿元，同比+10.3%，美元计价出口5280.1亿美元，同比+7.1%，远高于Wind一致预期。分地区来看，东盟为我国第一大出口伙伴，1-2月我国对东盟、欧盟、美国、韩国的人民币计价出口同比分别增长9.2%、1.6%、8.1%和-6.8%，同期，我国对共建“一带一路”国家出口1.75万亿元，增长13.5%；分商品来看，机电产品占出口比重近6成，其中自动数据处理设备、集成电路和汽车出口增长。1-2月，我国出口机电产品2.22万���元，增长11.8%，占出口总值的59.1%。其中，自动数据处理设备及其零部件1954.5亿元，增长7.3%；集成电路1607.1亿元，增长28.6%；汽车1118.9亿元，增长15.8%。同期，出口劳密产品6661.9亿元，增长22.2%，占17.8%。其中，服装及衣着附件1662亿元，增长16.3%；纺织品1543.3亿元，增长18.9%；塑料制品1182.8亿元，增长26.5%。出口农产品1053.7亿元，增长5.9%。整体来看，受中间品贸易支撑逻辑，机电、集成电路等产品出口超预期。出口超预期，关注中间品贸易强链延链长期逻辑。2024年开年出口超预期走高，通过量价拆分，我们发现：在出口重点商品中，集成电路对出口金额的拉动为0.77%，是出口金额的最大拉动项，在进口重点商品中，集成电路、铁矿砂及其精矿、原油是进口金额拉动项的前三名，分别拉动进口金额+1.77%、1.17%和0.60%，这几大重点商品都是中间品，因此我们认为2024年应重点关注外贸背后中间品贸易强链延链的支撑逻辑：（1）新旧动能切换过程中，中间品贸易有望推动我国制造业转型升级，成为外贸动能增长点。中国经济正在转向更高质量和更优结构的发展，亟需建立新动能。2023年12月中央经济工作会议强调“加快培育外贸新动能”，提出“拓展中间品贸易、服务贸易、数字贸易、跨境电商出口”等具体部署。拓展“中间品贸易”被排在部署首位。2023年，我国进出口中间品25.53万亿元，占整体进出口总值的61.1%。其中，出口中间品11.24万亿元，占我国出口总值的47.3%；进口中间品14.29万亿元，占我国进口总值的79.4%。在城镇化、工业化和全球化红利逐步减弱的过程中，捕捉新旧动能切换中新动能的边际增量极为关键，我国中间品贸易是中央经济工作会议在培育外贸动能中的首要部署，应加以关注，相关商品有望在接下来成为外贸动能增长点。（2）地缘政治变动下，中间品贸易有望增强产业链和供应链韧性，对于应对“脱钩断链”具有很强的现实针对性和长远意义。一是由于在当前的中美博弈中，美国多处行为表征其“脱钩断链”的打算，其单边制裁、“长臂管辖”和经济胁迫的行为严重破坏了国际经贸规则和秩序，干扰了全球产业链和供应链稳定，着力发展本国的中间品贸易可以减少在多国协作过程中产生的成本，提升贸易品主导地位。二是由于2023年以来全球地缘政治变动频发，例如红海航运危机使得全球航运成本上升，扰动外贸市场，从而掣肘全球贸易增长，发展中间品贸易有望通过增强各国经贸合作紧密度，提升在全球产业链供应链中的参与度，在开放中互利共赢，从而对冲地缘政治变动下跨国贸易可能产生的低流动性风险。三是我国与“一带一路”国家中间品贸易增多，通过共建“一带一路”倡议和企业“走出去”战略，延伸中间品贸易链条，更好增强国内国际两个市场资源的联动效应。（3）全球科技周期带动机电产品、集成电路等中间品的增长。在中美此轮人工智能科技革命的博弈中，美国在技术研发占据优势地位，底层算力的需求增长也快速推动了科技周期，技术密集型的机电和集成电路产品受益。1-2月，我国出口机电产品2.22万亿元，增长11.8%，占出口总值的59.1%。其中，自动数据处理设备及其零部件1954.5亿元，增长7.3%；集成电路1607.1亿元，增长28.6%；汽车1118.9亿元，增长15.8%。此外，2月8日国家发展改革委会同工业和信息化部、财政部、住房城乡建设部、市场监管总局、国家能源局等部门印发了《重点用能产品设备能效先进水平、节能水平和准入水平》，强调“加快提升产品设备节能标准。”有望加速各行业中能效偏低产品设备的“出清”。在稳政策加持下，三大工程和万亿国债等有望加速制造业等行业优胜劣汰，技术密集型的机电和集成电路产品有望在此进程中受益。进口：受2023年1-2月低进口基数及大宗商品进口增加影响，2024年1-2月进口表现超预期。2024年1-2月人民币计价进口2.86万亿元，同比+6.7%，美元计价出口4028.5亿美元，同比+3.5%，远高于Wind一致预期。分地区来看，韩国为我国第一大进口伙伴，1-2月我国对东盟、欧盟、美国、韩国的人民币计价进口同比分别增长6.6%、-6.8%、-7%和12.3%，同期，我国对共建“一带一路”国家进口1.38万亿元，增长3.9%；分商品来看，主要大宗商品进口量增加。1-2个月，铁矿砂、原油、煤和天然气进口量分别+8.1%、+5.1%、+22.9%和+23.6%。进口机电产品9740.8亿元，增长11%。整体来看，受2023年1-2月低进口基数及大宗商品进口增加影响，2024年1-2月进口表现超预期。贸易顺差：1-2���贸易顺差处于高位。2024年1-2月人民币计价贸易顺差8908.7亿元，同比+23.6%，美元计价贸易顺差1251.6亿美元，同比+20.5%。当前贸易顺差较高除了中间品贸易强联延链支撑外，也因近期人民币汇率处尚未从贬值转入升值区间，客观上支撑贸易顺差，外需对GDP的增长起到了正向作用。风险提示：稳增长政策对内需的拉动效果不及预期；经济恢复不及预期；三大工程进展不及预期；美联储货币政策超预期；地缘政治变动超预期。', 'content': '核心观点：1-2月中国出口金额（美元计价）同比+7.1%，进口同比+3.5%，进出口金额同比均超市场预期。出口超预期受机电、集成电路等中间品贸易支撑逻辑，进口超预期受2023年1-2月低进口基数及大宗商品进口增加影响。在出口重点商品中，集成电路对出口金额的拉动为0.77%，是出口金额的最大拉动项，在进口重点商品中，集成电路、铁矿砂及其精矿、原油是进口金额拉动项的前三名，分别拉动进口金额+1.77%、1.17%和0.60%，这几大重点商品都是中间品，因此我们建议关注外贸背后中间品贸易强链延链的支撑逻辑：（1）新旧动能切换过程中，中间品贸易有望推动我国制造业转型升级，成为外贸动能增长点；（2）地缘政治变动下，中间品贸易有望增强产业链和供应链韧性，对于应对“脱钩断链”具有较强的现实针对性和长远意义；（3）全球科技周期带动机电产品、集成电路等中间品的增长。在稳政策加持下，三大工程和万亿国债等有望加速制造业等行业优胜劣汰，技术密集型的机电和集成电路产品有望在此进程中受益。事件：2024年1-2月份，中国出口金额（美元计价）同比+7.1%，2023年12月为+2.3%；进口金额（美元计价）同比+3.5%，2023年12月为+0.2%；贸易差额为1251.6亿美元，前值为753.4亿美元。出口：受中间品贸易支撑逻辑，机电、集成电路等产品出口超预期。2024年1-2月人民币计价出口3.75万亿元，同比+10.3%，美元计价出口5280.1亿美元，同比+7.1%，远高于Wind一致预期。分地区来看，东盟为我国第一大出口伙伴，1-2月我国对东盟、欧盟、美国、韩国的人民币计价出口同比分别增长9.2%、1.6%、8.1%和-6.8%，同期，我国对共建“一带一路”国家出口1.75万亿元，增长13.5%；分商品来看，机电产品占出口比重近6成，其中自动数据处理设备、集成电路和汽车出口增长。1-2月，我国出口机电产品2.22万亿元，增长11.8%，占出口总值的59.1%。其中，自动数据处理设备及其零部件1954.5亿元，增长7.3%；集成电路1607.1亿元，增长28.6%；汽车1118.9亿元，增长15.8%。同期，出口劳密产品6661.9亿元，增长22.2%，占17.8%。其中，服装及衣着附件1662亿元，增长16.3%；纺织品1543.3亿元，增长18.9%；塑料制品1182.8亿元，增长26.5%。出口农产品1053.7亿元，增长5.9%。整体来看，受中间品贸易支撑逻辑，机电、集成电路等产品出口超预期。出口超预期，关注中间品贸易强链延链长期逻辑。2024年开年出口超预期走高，通过量价拆分，我们发现：在出口重点商品中，集成电路对出口金额的拉动为0.77%，是出口金额的最大拉动项，在进口重点商品中，集成电路、铁矿砂及其精矿、原油是进口金额拉动项的前三名，分别拉动进口金额+1.77%、1.17%和0.60%，这几大重点商品都是中间品，因此我们认为2024年应重点关注外贸背后中间品贸易强链延链的支撑逻辑：（1）新旧动能切换过程中，中间品贸易有望推动我国制造业转型升级，成为外贸动能增长点。中国经济正在转向更高质量和更优结构的发展，亟需建立新动能。2023年12月中央经济工作会议强调“加快培育外贸新动能”，提出“拓展中间品贸易、服务贸易、数字贸易、跨境电商出口”等具体部署。拓展“中间品贸易”被排在部署首位。2023年，我国进出口中间品25.53万亿元，占整体进出口总值的61.1%。其中，出口中间品11.24万亿元，占我国出口总值的47.3%；进口中间品14.29万亿元，占我国进口总值的79.4%。在城镇化、工业化和全球化红利逐步减弱的过程中，捕捉新旧动能切换中新动能的边际增量极为关键，我国中间品贸易是中央经济工作会议在培育外贸动能中的首要部署，应加以关注，相关商品有望在接下来成为外贸动能增长点。（2）地缘政治变动下，中间品贸易有望增强产业链和供应链韧性，对于应对“脱钩断链”具有很强的现实针对性和长远意义。一是由于在当前的中美博弈中，美国多处行为表征其“脱钩断链”的打算，其单边制裁、“长臂管辖”和经济胁迫的行为严重破坏了国际经贸规则和秩序，干扰了全��产业链和供应链稳定，着力发展本国的中间品贸易可以减少在多国协作过程中产生的成本，提升贸易品主导地位。二是由于2023年以来全球地缘政治变动频发，例如红海航运危机使得全球航运成本上升，扰动外贸市场，从而掣肘全球贸易增长，发展中间品贸易有望通过增强各国经贸合作紧密度，提升在全球产业链供应链中的参与度，在开放中互利共赢，从而对冲地缘政治变动下跨国贸易可能产生的低流动性风险。三是我国与“一带一路”国家中间品贸易增多，通过共建“一带一路”倡议和企业“走出去”战略，延伸中间品贸易链条，更好增强国内国际两个市场资源的联动效应。（3）全球科技周期带动机电产品、集成电路等中间品的增长。在中美此轮人工智能科技革命的博弈中，美国在技术研发占据优势地位，底层算力的需求增长也快速推动了科技周期，技术密集型的机电和集成电路产品受益。1-2月，我国出口机电产品2.22万亿元，增长11.8%，占出口总值的59.1%。其中，自动数据处理设备及其零部件1954.5亿元，增长7.3%；集成电路1607.1亿元，增长28.6%；汽车1118.9亿元，增长15.8%。此外，2月8日国家发展改革委会同工业和信息化部、财政部、住房城乡建设部、市场监管总局、国家能源局等部门印发了《重点用能产品设备能效先进水平、节能水平和准入水平》，强调“加快提升产品设备节能标准。”有望加速各行业中能效偏低产品设备的“出清”。在稳政策加持下，三大工程和万亿国债等有望加速制造业等行业优胜劣汰，技术密集型的机电和集成电路产品有望在此进程中受益。进口：受2023年1-2月低进口基数及大宗商品进口增加影响，2024年1-2月进口表现超预期。2024年1-2月人民币计价进口2.86万亿元，同比+6.7%，美元计价出口4028.5亿美元，同比+3.5%，远高于Wind一致预期。分地区来看，韩国为我国第一大进口伙伴，1-2月我国对东盟、欧盟、美国、韩国的人民币计价进口同比分别增长6.6%、-6.8%、-7%和12.3%，同期，我国对共建“一带一路”国家进口1.38万亿元，增长3.9%；分商品来看，主要大宗商品进口量增加。1-2个月，铁矿砂、原油、煤和天然气进口量分别+8.1%、+5.1%、+22.9%和+23.6%。进口机电产品9740.8亿元，增长11%。整体来看，受2023年1-2月低进口基数及大宗商品进口增加影响，2024年1-2月进口表现超预期。贸易顺差：1-2月贸易顺差处于高位。2024年1-2月人民币计价贸易顺差8908.7亿元，同比+23.6%，美元计价贸易顺差1251.6亿美元，同比+20.5%。当前贸易顺差较高除了中间品贸易强联延链支撑外，也因近期人民币汇率处尚未从贬值转入升值区间，客观上支撑贸易顺差，外需对GDP的增长起到了正向作用。风险提示：稳增长政策对内需的拉动效果不及预期；经济恢复不及预期；三大工程进展不及预期；美联储货币政策超预期；地缘政治变动超预期。', 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'', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000385631', '11000369443'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xaP6vuIHfoGlw8DUUhrp0Bk=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626027766_1.pdf?1709904796000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626027766_1.pdf?1709904796000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Export comments from January to February 2024: Recovery in external demand drives export improvement', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,陈达飞,张云杰', 'originalContent': '事件：北京时间3月7日，中国海关总署公布2024年1-2月进出口数据。按美元计价，2024年1-2月累计出口金额同比7.1%，预期2.7%，2023年12月2.3%；2024年1-2月累计进口金额同比3.5%，预期0.3%，2023年12月0.2%。核心观点：全球需求回暖、美国补库，带动我国总出口明显改善全球需求回暖下，我国总出口明显改善。2024年1-2月我国出口同比7.1%，去年12月为2.3%，环比大幅提升4.8个百分点。2024年1月以来，各国制造业PMI普遍大幅回升，印度、巴西等制造业PMI显著偏强，发达经济边际改善幅度明显好于新兴市场，东盟、欧盟、美国等三大贸易伙伴区需求有所回暖。分地区看，我国对美国出口好转值得重点关注，美国部分行业开启补库或是主要原因。2023年三季度起美国部分行业开始补库、带动进口需求持续改善，2024年2月制造业PMI进口指数较去年末大幅提升6.6个百分点至53%。伴随美国进口回暖，1-2月我国对美国出口同比升至5.3%，国内美西航线运价指数持续上行、表现强于季节性。分商品看，我国船舶出口增速走强，带动作用凸显。1-2月，我国船舶出口金额同比173.1%、两年复合增速43.1%。需求端看，国际航运增长、环保标准提升等带动全球船舶需求提升；供给端看，中国生产成本更低、相较其他生产型经济体具备明显优势，加上2023年我国运输设备行业盈利较好、交付能力较强，均对船舶出口形成支撑。常规跟踪：机电产品明显改善，集成电路、船舶、通用机械设备等出口走强我国出口进一步改善，主要贡献来自美国、中国港台、拉美地区。2024年1-2月出口累计同比为7.1%，较2023年12月的2.3%提升4.8个百分点，分地区来看，对美国、中国港台、拉美地区的出口明显好转，分别拉动总体出口0.8%、1.3%、1.5%，但是对日韩的出口贡献由上月的-0.2%继续下降至-0.9%。机电产品明显改善，集成电路、船舶、通用机械设备等走强。从主要出口商品来看，2024年1-2月机电产品占我国出口总值的59.1%，拉动出口同比增速5.0%，其中，集成电路、船舶、通用机械设备分别拉动出口同比增速0.9%、0.9%、0.5%，但是手机、汽车（包括底盘）等走弱。从量价拆解来看，主要出口商品大多是由数量端拉动。我国自中国港台、东盟（除越南外）的进口明显好转带动了总进口。2024年1-2月进口累计同比为3.5%，较去年12月的0.2%提升3.3个百分点，分地区来看，我国自中国港台、东盟（除越南外）进口对总体进口的拉动分别为0.5%、-0.1%，但是自欧盟的进口贡献由上月的正向拉动转为负向拖累。机电产品进口同比增速多有改善，高新技术产品走强。从主要进口商品来看，2024年1-2月机电产品占我国进口总值的34.1%，拉动进口同比增速2.5%，其中，集成电路等高新技术产品走强，拉动进口同比增速1.9%，而非机电产品类的中间品和资本品走弱。从量价拆解来看，主要进口商品大多是由数量端拉动。风险提示地缘政治冲突升级；美联储再次转“鹰”；金融条件加速收缩；', 'content': 'Event: On March 7, Beijing time, the General Administration of Customs of China announced import and export data from January to February 2024. In US dollars, the cumulative export value in January-February 2024 is 7.1% year-on-year, expected to be 2.7%, and 2.3% in December 2023; the cumulative import value from January to February 2024 is 3.5% year-on-year, expected to be 0.3%, and in December 2023 0.2 %. Core point of view: Global demand has picked up and the United States has replenished its inventory, leading to a significant improvement in my country\\'s total exports. With global demand picking up, my country\\'s total exports have improved significantly. From January to February 2024, my country\\'s exports were 7.1% year-on-year, and 2.3% in December last year, a significant increase of 4.8 percentage points month-on-month. Since January 2024, the manufacturing PMI of various countries has generally rebounded significantly. The manufacturing PMI of India, Brazil and other countries has been significantly stronger. The marginal improvement of developed economies has been significantly better than that of emerging markets. Demand in the three major trading partner areas of ASEAN, the European Union, and the United States has increased. The warmth. Looking at different regions, the improvement of my country\\'s exports to the United States deserves special attention. This may be the main reason for the start of restocking in some industries in the United States. Starting from the third quarter of 2023, some industries in the United States began to replenish their inventories, driving import demand to continue to improve. In February 2024, the manufacturing PMI import index increased significantly by 6.6 percentage points from the end of last year to 53%. As U.S. imports pick up, my country\\'s exports to the U.S. rose to 5.3% year-on-year in January and February, and the domestic U.S.-Western route freight index continued to rise, with performance stronger than seasonal. Broken down by commodity, my country\\'s ship export growth rate is strong and its driving role is prominent. From January to February, my country\\'s ship export value was 173.1% year-on-year, with a two-year compound growth rate of 43.1%. From the demand side, the growth of international shipping and the improvement of environmental standards have driven the global demand for ships; from the supply side, China\\'s production costs are lower and it has obvious advantages over other production-oriented economies. In addition, China\\'s transportation equipment industry will be more profitable in 2023. , strong delivery capabilities, all support ship exports. Regular tracking: Mechanical and electrical products have improved significantly, and exports of integrated circuits, ships, general machinery and equipment have strengthened. my country\\'s exports have further improved, with major contributions coming from the United States, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Latin America. The cumulative exports from January to February 2024 were 7.1% year-on-year, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from 2.3% in December 2023. In terms of regions, exports to the United States, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Latin America improved significantly, driving overall exports by 0.8% respectively. %, 1.3%, and 1.5%, but the export contribution to Japan and South Korea continued to decline from -0.2% last month to -0.9%. Mechanical and electrical products have improved significantly, and integrated circuits, ships, general machinery and equipment have strengthened. Judging from the main export commodities, mechanical and electrical products accounted for 59.1% of China\\'s total export value from January to February 2024, driving export growth by 5.0% year-on-year. Among them, integrated circuits, ships, and general machinery and equipment each drove export growth by 0.9% year-on-year. , 0.9%, 0.5%, but mobile phones, cars (including chassis), etc. weakened. From the perspective of volume and price, most of the major export commodities are driven by the quantity side. my country\\'s imports from Hong Kong, Taiwan and ASEAN (except Vietnam) have improved significantly, driving total imports. The cumulative imports from January to February 2024 were 3.5% year-on-year, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from 0.2% in December last year. In terms of regions, China\\'s imports from Hong Kong, Taiwan and ASEAN (excluding Vietnam) contributed to overall imports respectively. 0.5%, -0.1%, but the contribution of imports from the EU turned from a positive pull last month to a negative drag. The year-on-year growth rate of imports of mechanical and electrical products has mostly improved, and high-tech products have strengthened. Judging from the main imported commodities, mechanical and electrical products accounted for 34.1% of China\\'s total import value from January to February 2024, driving import growth by 2.5% year-on-year. Among them, the strength of high-tech products such as integrated circuits drove import growth by 1.9% year-on-year. Intermediate goods and capital goods, which are non-mechanical and electrical products, weakened. From the perspective of volume and price, most of the major imported commodities are driven by the quantity side. Risks indicate the escalation of geopolitical conflicts; the Fed turns \"hawk\" again; financial conditions accelerate contraction;', 'authorid': UUID('082a7378-f8cf-56eb-9a8f-5e0745c154c5'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9076127484440804, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'T3O0CL83VQBBHC5A533DBJA643VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:54:59 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'T3O0CL83VQBBHC5A533DBJA643VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1e1157be-b815-5510-912c-d36dc42fb637'), 'title': 'Comments on import and export data from January to February: low base factor is not the only reason for the improvement in exports', 'author': 'Chen Qi, Zhu Qibing', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xU0Ktgmh+aXbIHnjMVL11ZA=', 'researcher': '陈琦,朱启兵', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288352', '11000224223'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xU0Ktgmh+aXbIHnjMVL11ZA=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626025946_1.pdf?1709897356000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626025946_1.pdf?1709897356000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on import and export data from January to February: low base factor is not the only reason for the improvement in exports', 'originalAuthor': '陈琦,朱启兵', 'originalContent': '出口累计同比增幅明显走扩。主要贸易对手对出口同比增速的贡献改善。低基数因素并非出口改善的唯一原因。出口累计同比增幅明显走扩。3月7日，海关总署公布数据显示，以美元计价，1-2月，我国出口同比增长7.1%，增速较2023年1-12月转正，增幅实现11.7个百分点；进口同比增长3.5%，增速较2023年1-12月延续改善9.0个百分点；贸易顺差实现1251.6亿美元。以人民币计价，1-2月我国出口同比增长10.3%，增幅较2023年1-12月继续改善9.7个百分点；进口同比增长6.7%，增幅较2023年1-12月明显改善7.0个百分点；贸易顺差实现8908.6亿元。主要贸易对手对出口同比增速的贡献改善。分国别看，1-2月，我国对东盟进出口总额实现1397.7亿美元，占比15.0%，东盟仍是我国第一大贸易伙伴，其中，出口同比增长6.0%，增速较2023年1-12月明显改善11.0个百分点；进口同比增长3.3%，2023年1-12月改善8.1个百分点。1-2月，我国对欧盟进出口总额1172.5亿美元，占比12.6%；其中，出口同比下降1.3%，降幅较2023年1-12月明显收窄8.9个百分点；进口同比下降9.4%，降幅较2023年1-12月明显走扩8.5个百分点。对美国进出口总额995.5亿美元，占比10.7%，其中，出口同比增长5.0%，增速较2023年1-12月明显改善18.1个百分点；进口同比下降9.7%，降幅较2023年1-12月走扩2.9个百分点。1-2月，主要贸易对象对当期出口同比增速贡献有所改善，共计拉动当期同比增速1.0个百分点，较2023年1-12月改善6.0个百分点。1-2月，欧、美对当期出口同比增速的贡献较2023年1-12月均有改善；对欧出口仍为负贡献，但负贡献较2023年1-12月明显收窄1.5个百分点，仅拖累当期出口同比增速0.2个百分点；另一方面，对美出口贡献由负转正，拉动当期出口同比增速0.7个百分点，较2023年1-12月明显改善2.8个百分点。汽车产业链出口维持较好表现。着眼产品结构，1-2月，多数产品出口增速有所改善，但改善动力有所不同。一方面，轻工产品出口增速明显改善，主要受到去年同期订单积压、基数较低的影响。另一方面，中游机械制造业出口增速表现持续较好，1-2月船舶、汽车及汽车零件出口同比延续较快增长，同比增速分别实现173.1%、12.6%和16.2%，汽车产业链在去年全年高基数的影响下，出口优势延续。此外，1-2月家电、音频设备及医疗器械出口同比增速均高于当期我国出口同比增速，海外订单延续温和修复。进口方面，1-2月，进口同比增速维持较快的产品主要分布在初级产品、周期品及工业半成品中，包括部分食品、成品油、铁矿砂及集成电路等。1-2月我国出口同比增速明显改善，一定程度上受到去年同期低基数的影响。但我们认为，低基数因素并非出口改善的唯一原因，美国制造业补库对我国外需亦有提振。1月美国制造业资本品、耐用品存货量环比分别增长0.3%和0.2%，美国制造业补库仍在进行。值得注意的是，1月美制造业耐用品、资本品库存环比增速高于同期消费品增速，一定程度上说明此轮补库为投资驱动；在美通胀持续回落的背景下，美制造业补库的延续性仍需观察。风险提示：海外主要经济体通胀韧性超预期；地缘关系不确定因素增加。', 'content': \"The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of exports expanded significantly. The contribution of major trading rivals to year-on-year export growth improved. The low base factor is not the only reason for the improvement in exports. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of exports expanded significantly. On March 7, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that in US dollars, from January to February, my country's exports increased by 7.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate turned positive compared with January-December 2023, with an increase of 11.7 percentage points; imports increased by 3.5% year-on-year. , the growth rate continued to improve by 9.0 percentage points compared with January to December 2023; the trade surplus achieved US$125.16 billion. In RMB terms, my country's exports increased by 10.3% year-on-year from January to February, and the growth rate continued to improve by 9.7 percentage points compared with January-December 2023; imports increased by 6.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate improved significantly by 7.0 percentage points compared with January-December 2023; Trade A surplus of 890.86 billion yuan was realized. The contribution of major trading rivals to year-on-year export growth improved. Looking at the country by country, from January to February, my country's total import and export to ASEAN reached 139.77 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 15.0%. ASEAN is still my country's largest trading partner. Among them, exports increased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was higher than that in January 2023. -A significant improvement of 11.0 percentage points in December; imports increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and improved by 8.1 percentage points from January to December 2023. From January to February, my country's total import and export to the EU was US$117.25 billion, accounting for 12.6%; of which, exports fell by 1.3% year-on-year, a decline that was significantly narrower than that from January to December 2023 by 8.9 percentage points; imports fell by 9.4% year-on-year, and the decline was significantly narrower than that from January to December 2023. Compared with January to December 2023, it expanded significantly by 8.5 percentage points. The total import and export volume to the United States was US$99.55 billion, accounting for 10.7%. Among them, exports increased by 5.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was significantly improved by 18.1 percentage points from January to December 2023; imports decreased by 9.7% year-on-year, and the decline rate was significantly improved from January to December 2023. The monthly growth rate expanded by 2.9 percentage points. From January to February, the contribution of major trading objects to the year-on-year growth rate of exports in the current period improved, driving a total of 1.0 percentage points to the year-on-year growth rate in the current period, an improvement of 6.0 percentage points from January to December 2023. From January to February, the contribution of Europe and the United States to the year-on-year export growth rate of the current period improved compared with January-December 2023; exports to Europe still made a negative contribution, but the negative contribution was significantly narrowed by 1.5% compared with January-December 2023. percentage points, only dragging down the current export growth by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year; on the other hand, the contribution of exports to the United States turned from negative to positive, driving the current export growth by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 2.8 percentage points from January to December 2023. Exports in the automobile industry chain maintained good performance. Focusing on the product structure, from January to February, the export growth rate of most products improved, but the motivation for improvement was different. On the one hand, the growth rate of exports of light industrial products has improved significantly, mainly affected by the backlog of orders and a low base in the same period last year. On the other hand, the export growth rate of the midstream machinery manufacturing industry continued to be good. From January to February, the exports of ships, automobiles and auto parts continued to grow rapidly year-on-year, with year-on-year growth rates of 173.1%, 12.6% and 16.2% respectively. The automobile industry chain Under the influence of the high base throughout last year, the export advantage continued. In addition, the year-on-year growth rate of exports of home appliances, audio equipment and medical equipment from January to February was higher than the year-on-year growth rate of my country's exports in the same period, and overseas orders continued to recover moderately. In terms of imports, from January to February, products with relatively fast year-on-year import growth were mainly distributed in primary products, cyclical products and industrial semi-finished products, including some food, refined oil, iron ore and integrated circuits. The year-on-year growth rate of my country's exports improved significantly from January to February, which was affected to a certain extent by the low base in the same period last year. However, we believe that the low base factor is not the only reason for the improvement in exports. The replenishment of the U.S. manufacturing industry will also boost China's foreign demand. In January, the inventory of capital goods and durable goods in the U.S. manufacturing industry increased by 0.3% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively, and restocking in the U.S. manufacturing industry is still in progress. It is worth noting that the month-on-month growth rate of durable goods and capital goods inventories in the U.S. manufacturing industry in January was higher than the growth rate of consumer goods in the same period, which to a certain extent shows that this round of inventory replenishment is driven by investment; in the context of U.S. inflation continuing to fall, the U.S. manufacturing industry The continuity of the replenishment still needs to be observed. Risk warning: Inflation resilience in major overseas economies exceeds expectations; uncertainties in geopolitical relations increase.\", 'authorid': UUID('64fe4936-93fb-5012-8030-63d18f4c6df2'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9359847977757454, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'HDEB1S8JRKR126K1K19JUDI4VFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:55:02 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'HDEB1S8JRKR126K1K19JUDI4VFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('08a0d721-54b9-5195-b17f-8ffb8fd2487f'), 'title': 'Two major driving forces for the obvious increase in export growth', 'author': 'Xie Yunliang ,Mai Linyue', 'orgName': '信达证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80092742', 'orgSName': '信达证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xYXLl8HSI+U8oB3Pl6o7Ss4=', 'researcher': '解运亮,麦麟玥', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000243225', '11000440452'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xYXLl8HSI+U8oB3Pl6o7Ss4=', 'site': 'Cinda Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '信达证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626025225_1.pdf?1709895231000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626025225_1.pdf?1709895231000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Two major driving forces for the obvious increase in export growth', 'originalAuthor': '解运亮,麦麟玥', 'originalContent': '出口增速明显抬升有两大推力。 今年 1-2 月中国出口累计同比增速扭转了去年同期累计同比负增长的局面。 从出口实际金额的明显增长来看，我们认为，此次出口数据明显改善背后的动力或是海外制造业景气度回升、“一带一路”新兴市场的扩大。从海外制造业 PMI 来看，今年 1-2 月美国制造业进口 PMI 和越南制造业 PMI 扭转至扩张区间，欧元区制造业 PMI 也是近 10 个月以来的较高水平。 不仅如此， 根据重点出口商品的量价表现，我们认为，出口数量依旧是此次出口增速回升的主导力量。进口增长背后有进口价格因素的提振。 从绝对金额来看，无论是出口、还是进口，增速的明显改善主因均不是基数变动。我们认为，今年 1-2 月进口累计同比增长背后，要看到国内工业生产需求仍在恢复，也要看到进口增长背后也有进口价格因素的提振。 从进口细分商品来看，这次进口的增长既有机电产品、也有能源资源品和工业原料等大宗商品。 工业原料方面，铁矿砂和铜矿砂相关产品进口金额累计同比增速均有改善，但价格改善幅度较大是工业原料进口金额增速明显改善的主要因素。即使出口增速再回落，出口表现也不会太差。 目前海外降息尚未启动，主要是全球制造业触底和美国补库在影响出口。 根据新订单与自由库存之差的领先表现， 我们认为，后续美国补库空间仍能利好我国出口。 其次，摩根大通全球制造业 PMI 已在今年前两月进入扩张区间，我们认为全球制造业触底回升仍有望成为今年的趋势。 不仅如此， 美国再次对俄罗斯增加制裁，俄罗斯商品进口转向我国的需求仍在。 即使出口增速有回落，但受全球制造业触底回升的影响，我们认为全年出口增速表现不会太差。风险因素： 稳增长政策力度不及预期，全球经济景气度不及预期等。', 'content': \"There are two major driving forces for the obvious increase in export growth. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of China's exports from January to February this year reversed the cumulative year-on-year negative growth in the same period last year. Judging from the significant increase in the actual amount of exports, we believe that the driving force behind the significant improvement in export data may be the rebound in overseas manufacturing prosperity and the expansion of emerging markets along the “One Belt, One Road” initiative. From the perspective of overseas manufacturing PMI, the U.S. manufacturing import PMI and Vietnam manufacturing PMI reversed to the expansion range from January to February this year, and the euro zone manufacturing PMI was also at a high level in the past 10 months. Not only that, based on the volume and price performance of key export commodities, we believe that export quantity is still the dominant force in this recovery in export growth. Behind the growth of imports is the boost of import price factors. In terms of absolute amounts, whether it is exports or imports, the main reason for the obvious improvement in growth rate is not the change in the base number. We believe that behind the cumulative year-on-year growth in imports from January to February this year, we must see that domestic industrial production demand is still recovering, and we must also see that the import growth is also boosted by import price factors. From the perspective of imported commodities, the increase in imports includes mechanical and electrical products, energy resources, industrial raw materials and other bulk commodities. In terms of industrial raw materials, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the import value of iron ore and copper ore-related products has improved, but the larger price improvement is the main factor for the significant improvement in the growth rate of the import value of industrial raw materials. Even if export growth slows down again, export performance will not be too bad. At present, overseas interest rate cuts have not yet started, mainly due to the bottoming out of the global manufacturing industry and the replenishment of US stocks, which are affecting exports. Based on the leading performance of the difference between new orders and free inventory, we believe that the subsequent replenishment space in the United States can still benefit my country's exports. Secondly, JP Morgan’s global manufacturing PMI has entered the expansion range in the first two months of this year. We believe that the bottoming out of the global manufacturing industry is still expected to become a trend this year. Not only that, the United States has once again increased sanctions on Russia, and the demand for imports of Russian goods to my country is still there. Even though the export growth rate has declined, we believe that the full-year export growth rate will not be too bad due to the impact of the bottoming out of the global manufacturing industry. Risk factors: Policies to stabilize growth are less than expected, global economic prosperity is less than expected, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('3f9d3803-89e6-5e94-a0a5-28b6565d83a1'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9209456350654364, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '683S13KAQR12VN8ERS3U7J7B83VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:55:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '683S13KAQR12VN8ERS3U7J7B83VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('cc230a1e-9a25-5c18-bc58-23cb8806870b'), 'title': 'Thoughts on foreign trade data from January to February and future prospects: Improved foreign demand led to significant growth in exports from January to February', 'author': 'Fan Lei, Fang Shichao', 'orgName': '国联证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000028', 'orgSName': '国联证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xV+rX4VCvBkxOZW4f27jckg=', 'researcher': '樊磊,方诗超', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000175009', '11000369352'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xV+rX4VCvBkxOZW4f27jckg=', 'site': 'Guolian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626021224_1.pdf?1709890701000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626021224_1.pdf?1709890701000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Thoughts on foreign trade data from January to February and future prospects: Improved foreign demand led to significant growth in exports from January to February', 'originalAuthor': '樊磊,方诗超', 'originalContent': '核心观点：1-2 月中国以美元计价的出口同比增长 7.1%（前值 2.3%）。 经季节性调整后， 1-2 月出口环比增长 6.3%，较 12 月有明显的回升。外需的改善可能是出口环比回升的主要原因， 此外，年尾的技术性因素可能也有一定影响。1-2 月进口规模的季调环比增长 1.7%， 表明内需可能正在持续修复。 展望未来， 我们认为， 中国季节性调整后的出口规模或能保持温和的环比正增长，进口也有望继续增长。1-2 月出口明显反弹1-2 月中国出口同比增速为 7.1%（美元计价，前值 2.3%），较上月大幅回升，也明显好于市场一致预期（0.3%）。经过季节性调整以后， 1-2 月出口环比也出现了显著的上行， 1-2 月平均的出口规模较 12 月环比增长 6.3%（前值-0.1%）。多数产品出口回升，对主要贸易对象出口普遍改善季节性调整后，分产品看， 除原材料出口继续下滑(环比-2.1%)，农产品出口基本保持平稳外（环比-0.4%），其余主要出口大类均有明显改善，包括轻工、机电产品的出口都出现了较大幅度的回升，高新技术产品出口也有进一步改善（环比分别为+7.2%、 +7.2%、 +2.3%）。 分出口对象看， 我国对新兴经济体、转口贸易对象与发达经济体的出口都有明显的改善（环比分别为+4.6%、 +5.3%、 +4.4%），只有对韩国、日本等个别国家出口表现偏弱。1-2 月出口为何环比回升？一方面，外需的改善可能是主要原因， 1、 2 月摩根大通全球制造业 PMI 分别 50.0%、 50.3%，较 12 月（49.0%）明显回升。 1-2 月韩国出口同比增速也有大幅回升，同比增长 11.2%（前值 5.0%）。 另一方面，出口环比的回升，可能也与一些年尾的技术性因素有关。1-2 月进口继续回升，表明内需或持续修复1-2 月进口同比增速为 3.5%（美元计��，前值 0.2%），较上月进一步回升，好于市场的一致预期（0.1%） 。季节性调整后，进口规模环比增长 1.7%（前值 0.8%） ,反映出内需或正在持续修复。从四年复合同比增速来看，主要进口产品中，高新技术产品的进口出现反弹，机电产品的进口保持平稳，原材料的进口则有所回落。后续外贸走势展望出口方面，近几个月中国出口份额保持平稳，我们认为 2024 年中国出口份额或好于预期，同时，美国经济也有望软着陆，支撑中国外需。因为，我们认为， 我国季节性调整后的出口规模或有望保持温和的环比正增长。当然，考虑到 2023 年年初基数较高， 3-4 月的出口同比增速可能会处于负增长区间。进口方面， 近期超预期的社融、 PMI、春节假期消费的数据都显示出，内需或正在修复的正循环之中，我们认为进口也有望继续增长。风险提示： 海外经济与预期不一致，政策与预期不一致', 'content': \"Key takeaway: China's dollar-denominated exports increased 7.1% year-on-year in January-February (previous value: 2.3%). After seasonal adjustment, exports increased by 6.3% month-on-month from January to February, a significant rebound from December. Improvement in external demand may be the main reason for the month-on-month rebound in exports. In addition, technical factors at the end of the year may also have a certain impact. Imports from January to February increased by 1.7% seasonally adjusted month-on-month, indicating that domestic demand may be continuing to recover. Looking forward, we believe that China's seasonally adjusted exports may maintain moderate positive month-on-month growth, and imports are also expected to continue to grow. Exports rebounded significantly from January to February. China's export growth rate from January to February was 7.1% year-on-year (in US dollars, the previous value was 2.3%), a sharp rebound from the previous month, and significantly better than the market consensus expectation (0.3%). After seasonal adjustment, exports from January to February also showed a significant upward trend. The average export scale from January to February increased by 6.3% from December (previous value -0.1%). Exports of most products rebounded, and exports to major trading objects generally improved. After seasonal adjustment, in terms of products, except for the export of raw materials that continued to decline (-2.1% month-on-month) and the export of agricultural products that remained basically stable (-0.4% month-on-month), the remaining major exports There has been a significant improvement in all categories, including the export of light industry and mechanical and electrical products, which have rebounded significantly, and the export of high-tech products has also further improved (month-on-month respectively +7.2%, +7.2%, +2.3%). In terms of export objects, China's exports to emerging economies, re-export trade objects and developed economies have all improved significantly (month-on-month: +4.6%, +5.3%, +4.4% respectively), only to individual countries such as South Korea and Japan. Export performance was weak. Why did exports rebound from January to February? On the one hand, improvement in external demand may be the main reason. In January and February, JPMorgan Chase's global manufacturing PMI was 50.0% and 50.3% respectively, which was a significant rebound from December (49.0%). South Korea's export growth also rebounded significantly from January to February, with a year-on-year increase of 11.2% (previous value of 5.0%). On the other hand, the month-on-month rebound in exports may also be related to some technical factors at the end of the year. Imports continued to rebound from January to February, indicating that domestic demand may continue to recover. The year-on-year growth rate of imports from January to February was 3.5% (in US dollars, the previous value was 0.2%), which was a further rebound from the previous month and was better than the market consensus expectation (0.1%). . After seasonal adjustment, the import scale increased by 1.7% month-on-month (previous value: 0.8%), reflecting that domestic demand may be continuing to recover. Judging from the four-year compound year-on-year growth rate, among the main imported products, the import of high-tech products rebounded, the import of mechanical and electrical products remained stable, and the import of raw materials fell back. Outlook for subsequent foreign trade trends In terms of exports, China's export share has remained stable in recent months. We believe that China's export share in 2024 may be better than expected. At the same time, the U.S. economy is also expected to have a soft landing to support China's foreign demand. Because, we believe that my country's seasonally adjusted export scale is expected to maintain moderate positive month-on-month growth. Of course, considering the high base at the beginning of 2023, the year-on-year export growth rate from March to April may be in the negative growth range. In terms of imports, the recent higher-than-expected social finance, PMI, and Spring Festival holiday consumption data all show that domestic demand may be recovering in a positive cycle, and we believe that imports are also expected to continue to grow. Risk warning: Overseas economies are inconsistent with expectations, and policies are inconsistent with expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('b6747a67-28e3-5d3e-a47d-fd6929bfa2b9'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9331188034266233, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8G8TL9JRS74NLPU99A4M9TNS0RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:55:07 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8G8TL9JRS74NLPU99A4M9TNS0RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('406c2221-2152-5849-ac60-2ae0aee31425'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Comments: External demand has improved substantially, but the slope and sustainability remain to be further observed.', 'author': 'He Ning, Pan Weizhen', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xYdsCjiaUkCQOus/jasVGrQ=', 'researcher': '何宁,潘纬桢', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332', '11000416632'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xYdsCjiaUkCQOus/jasVGrQ=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626021220_1.pdf?1709890303000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626021220_1.pdf?1709890303000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Comments: External demand has improved substantially, but the slope and sustainability remain to be further observed.', 'originalAuthor': '何宁,潘纬桢', 'originalContent': '事件：以美元计，中国1-2月出口同比+7.1%，前值+2.3%；1-2月进口同比+3.5%，前值0.2%；1-2月贸易顺差1251.6亿美元，2023年11-12月为1447.9亿美元。出口：排除复工时间错位影响，实际外需仍有改善迹象1.全球经济景气度重返景气区间，实际外需有所改善。1-2月摩根大通全球制造业PMI分别为50%、50.3%，较前值有所回升，1月为11个月以来首次处于50%荣枯线以上。排除基数影响，中国1-2月出口两年复合增速为-1.5%，前值为-5.6%，排除春节复工复产错位影响，日本、土耳其、印度2024年1月出口同比亦有所改善，显示实际外需有一定程度改善迹象。2.多数经济体需求转暖趋势明显，对美国、发展中经济体出口明显改善。分国别看，1-2月出口同比改善主要来自美国与发展中地区。发达经济体中对美国1-2月出口同比较前值上升9.5个百分点至2.6%，发展中经济体中东盟、巴西、印度等地区对我国出口贡献均边际改善。外需看，多数发达与发展中经济体转暖趋势明显。3.劳密型产品出口延续改善，汽车链产品出口维持正增长。分产品看，农产品与原材料拖累1-2月出口同比增速0.4个百分点；劳密型产品拉动1-2月出口同比1.5个百分点，电子产业链产品拉动出口同比0.3个百分点，对出口同比的贡献均边际改善；汽车产业链产品拉动出口增长0.7个百分点，对出口同比拉动作用有所降低，但仍处相对高位。量价拆分来看，出口同比回升主要来自出口数量，从公布的重点产品出口量价数据来看，数量拉动为12月出口金额同比为正的主要原因。边际变化上，1-2月半数产品出口数量同比贡献较前值边际提升，多数产品价格同比贡献较前值边际降低。进口：同比回升，内需或延续改善1-2月进口同比回升，较前值上升3.3个百分点至3.5%。排除基数效应，两年复合同比3.8%，前值-3.7%，反映当前我国内需或有改善。随着三大工程的稳步推进与实物工作量的提升，内需或将继续温和回升。建议对电子产业链、地产后周期与出行消费等出口板块保持关注1.多维度指标指向出口外需实质性回暖，但回升斜率及持续性仍有待进一步观察。PMI、出口地区与产品结构等多维度指标均指向外需有实质性回暖。往后看，我们预计3月在同期高基数影响下出口同比增速或将较低，再往后，年中欧央行、美联储或将相继进入降息区间，有望提振海外商品需求，且主要经济体或已相继进入主动补库阶段，从而对我国出口带来正向拉动效应，但回升斜率及持续性仍有待进一步观察。我们对后续出口保持谨慎乐观，基准情形下，预计2024年我国出口同比增速前低后高，全年或为低个位数正增长。2.关注电子产业链产品、地产后周期产品与出行消费品出口边际回暖趋势。韩国出口同比已连续5个月为正，其出口产品以电子产业链产品为主，我国电子产业链产品出口整体亦呈回升趋势。陶瓷、家电、家具、灯具等地产后周期产品或受益于海外房地产温和修复，排除基数效应影响，上述行业10月、11月、12、1-2月出口两年复合增速分别为-11.6%、-8.7%、-4.7%、0.8%，同比连续回升，此外箱包服装、鞋靴等出行消费品出口两年复合增速同样连续回升，或反映其真实需求已处于上升通道中。风险提示：外需回落超预期，政策变化超预期。', 'content': \"Event: In US dollars, China’s exports from January to February were +7.1% year-on-year, and the previous value was +2.3%; imports from January to February were +3.5% year-on-year, and the previous value was 0.2%; the trade surplus from January to February was US$125.16 billion, in 2023 From November to December it was US$144.79 billion. Exports: Excluding the impact of the mismatch in resumption of work, actual external demand still shows signs of improvement 1. The global economic boom has returned to the boom range, and actual external demand has improved. From January to February, JPMorgan Chase's global manufacturing PMI was 50% and 50.3% respectively, which rebounded from the previous value. January was the first time in 11 months that it was above the 50% expansion line. Excluding the impact of the base, the two-year compound growth rate of China's exports from January to February was -1.5%, compared with the previous value of -5.6%. Excluding the impact of the misalignment of resumption of work and production during the Spring Festival, the exports of Japan, Turkey, and India also improved year-on-year in January 2024. , showing signs of improvement in actual external demand to a certain extent. 2. Demand in most economies has shown a clear warming trend, and exports to the United States and developing economies have improved significantly. Looking at different countries, the year-on-year improvement in exports from January to February mainly came from the United States and developing regions. Among developed economies, exports to the United States in January-February increased by 9.5 percentage points to 2.6% year-on-year. The contribution of developing economies to ASEAN, Brazil, India and other regions to my country's exports all improved marginally. Looking at external demand, most developed and developing economies have a clear warming trend. 3. The export of labor-intensive products continued to improve, and the export of automotive chain products maintained positive growth. In terms of products, agricultural products and raw materials dragged down export growth by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year in January and February; labor-intensive products drove exports in January-February by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, and electronic industry chain products drove exports by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The average contribution margin improved; automobile industry chain products drove export growth by 0.7 percentage points, and their year-on-year boost to exports has decreased, but is still at a relatively high level. From the perspective of volume and price, the year-on-year rebound in exports mainly comes from export quantity. Judging from the published export volume and price data of key products, quantity is the main reason for the positive year-on-year export value in December. In terms of marginal changes, the year-on-year contribution of the export quantity of half of the products from January to February was marginally higher than the previous value, and the year-on-year contribution of the price of most products was marginally lower than the previous value. Imports: Year-on-year rebound, domestic demand may continue to improve. Imports from January to February rebounded year-on-year, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous value to 3.5%. Excluding the base effect, the two-year compound growth rate was 3.8% year-on-year, and the previous value was -3.7%, reflecting that my country's current domestic demand may be improving. With the steady progress of the three major projects and the increase in physical workload, domestic demand may continue to recover moderately. It is recommended to pay attention to export sectors such as the electronics industry chain, real estate post-cycle and travel consumption. 1. Multi-dimensional indicators point to a substantial recovery in export demand, but the slope and sustainability of the recovery remain to be further observed. Multi-dimensional indicators such as PMI, export regions and product structure all point to a substantial recovery in external demand. Looking forward, we expect that export growth in March may be lower year-on-year due to the high base in the same period. Going forward, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve may successively enter the interest rate cut range in the middle of the year, which is expected to boost overseas commodity demand, and major economies They may have entered the stage of active inventory replenishment, thus bringing a positive pulling effect to my country's exports, but the slope and sustainability of the recovery remain to be further observed. We remain cautiously optimistic about subsequent exports. Under the baseline scenario, my country's exports are expected to have a year-on-year growth rate that is low at first and then high in 2024, and the whole year may be low single-digit positive growth. 2. Pay attention to the marginal recovery trend in exports of electronic industry chain products, real estate post-cycle products and travel consumer goods. South Korea's exports have been positive for five consecutive months year-on-year. Its export products are mainly electronics industry chain products. my country's overall exports of electronics industry chain products are also on an upward trend. Post-real estate cycle products such as ceramics, home appliances, furniture, and lamps may benefit from the mild restoration of overseas real estate. Excluding the influence of the base effect, the two-year compound growth rate of exports in the above industries in October, November, December, and January-February was -11.6% respectively. , -8.7%, -4.7%, 0.8%, continued to rebound year-on-year. In addition, the two-year compound growth rate of exports of travel consumer goods such as luggage, clothing, shoes and boots also continued to rebound, which may reflect that their real demand is on the rise. Risk warning: External demand fell more than expected, and policy changes exceeded expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('d47cb679-02a6-5e72-a1c5-22a80f95708b'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9300589431077242, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'DTE3RA6QNTISBDRJGNCCPD8OE7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:55:41 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'DTE3RA6QNTISBDRJGNCCPD8OE7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('67fb3d88-b177-5325-b7bd-d43a178c0c86'), 'title': 'Part 1 of the U.S. Finance Research Series: U.S. Finance: History and Trends', 'author': 'Hu Shaohua, Liu Sijia', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xddiLvRFi0nLr4p9b3HghHc=', 'researcher': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249934', '11000257478'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xddiLvRFi0nLr4p9b3HghHc=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626021189_1.pdf?1709892414000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626021189_1.pdf?1709892414000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Part 1 of the U.S. Finance Research Series: U.S. Finance: History and Trends', 'originalAuthor': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'originalContent': '投资要点美国财政政策主流理念的演变经历了四个阶段。建国初的一百多年，美国政府遵循自由主义的经济理念，几乎没有对国内征税。面对1929年大萧条的挑战，凯恩斯主义的提出和罗斯福新政标志着财政转向积极干预经济，通过增加政府开支来刺激需求，后续几十年中成为财政政策的主导。然而，20世纪70年代末期的滞胀现象使新古典经济学观点重新获得青睐，主张财政政策应更加谨慎。到了2008年金融危机和随后的新冠疫情，美国再次转向凯恩斯主义的扩张性财政政策。实践上，无论主流理论如何变化，美国的财政操作遇到经济困难时总倾向于采用凯恩斯主义的积极干预措施。政治周期影响使得多数总统实际采取与竞选承诺不同的财政操作。美国财政政策表现出中等的逆周期性，主要体现在经济衰退时财政扩张、经济过热时难以紧缩的不对称性，反映出政府调整政策时的自律缺失。美国财政预算制定和执行涉及行政和立法两大分支的合作。美国的财政政策分为强制性支出和自由裁量性支出两大类。强制性支出主要包括社保、医疗、利息等支出，不需年度国会批准，而自由裁量性支出需国会年度审议通过。预算案首先由总统提出，然后提交给国会进行审议和修改，双方达成一致后，预算案便会正式通过，并成为法律执行。由于立法过程中存在的“阻挠议事”现象，使得通过财政法案往往需要超过简单多数的“超级多数”支持。预算和解程序提供了一种绕过阻挠议事，以简单多数通过财政相关法案的途径。美国各级政府的事权根据受益范围划分。美国实行联邦、州级和地方三级财政体制，各级政府在财政政策上具有一定的独立性，但联邦政府��过联邦补助金在全国性政策目标的实施上发挥核心作用。联邦政府负责全国性项目如国家安全和社会福利，而州和地方政府则着重于提供教育、公共安全等地方性服务。税收是美国各级政府的主要收入来源。美国每年的税收中，约有一半归属于联邦政府，剩下的一半由州政府和地方政府约按六四开的比例划分。个人所得税是联邦政府和州政府最主要的税源，而地方政府则主要依赖房地产税作为其税收收入的来源。大部分政府债务由联邦政府承担。自上而下的单向转移支付制度作为美国税收分配制度的补充，能够推动全国性财政政策的有效落地。美国财政体系展现出以下发展趋势：1.在财政思想层面重新向凯恩斯主义倾斜，但在实践层面，美国财政政策不具备凯恩斯主义理论的对称性。在新冠疫情后，美联储再次独自承担起抑制通胀的职责，而财政出于政治的需要仍在试图扩张，展现出一定的顺周期性。2.财政决策的灵活性下降。美国财政预算中，自由裁量性支出的比重逐年下降，而强制性支出由于受到社会福利需求和利息支出上升的推动，比重逐年上升。在2024年这样的选举年，财政政策制定和执行的延迟可能难以避免。3.在央地关系上，财政权力逐渐向联邦政府倾斜。2008年后，随着美国财政再次向凯恩斯主义靠拢，全国性财政政策的重要程度加深，州和地方政府的财政支出增长几乎停滞，财政刺激主要通过联邦政府实行。4.财政支出规模逐步放大，而财政收入相对不足，导致政府债务不断增加。未来，美国财政是会在财政赤字货币化的道路上一去不返，还是回归1984年至2008年以削减赤字为最高目标的自律模式，仍需等待历史的演绎。风险提示：财政赤字和债务水平；政治分歧对财政政策的影响；社会保障和医疗保险制度的可持续性。', 'content': 'Investment Points The evolution of the mainstream philosophy of U.S. fiscal policy has gone through four stages. For more than a hundred years after the founding of the People\\'s Republic of China, the U.S. government followed liberal economic concepts and imposed almost no domestic taxes. Faced with the challenge of the Great Depression in 1929, the introduction of Keynesianism and Roosevelt\\'s New Deal marked a shift toward active fiscal intervention in the economy, stimulating demand through increased government spending, and became the dominant fiscal policy in the following decades. However, the stagflation phenomenon in the late 1970s brought the neoclassical economic perspective back into favor, advocating that fiscal policy should be more prudent. By the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent COVID-19 epidemic, the United States once again turned to Keynesian expansionary fiscal policy. In practice, no matter how the mainstream theory changes, the United States always tends to adopt Keynesian active intervention measures when its fiscal operations encounter economic difficulties. The influence of the political cycle causes most presidents to actually take fiscal actions that are different from their campaign promises. U.S. fiscal policy shows moderate countercyclicality, which is mainly reflected in the asymmetry of fiscal expansion during economic recession and difficulty in tightening when the economy overheats, reflecting the government\\'s lack of self-discipline when adjusting policies. The formulation and execution of the U.S. fiscal budget involves cooperation between the executive and legislative branches. U.S. fiscal policy is divided into two categories: mandatory spending and discretionary spending. Mandatory expenditures mainly include social security, medical care, interest and other expenditures, which do not require annual congressional approval, while discretionary expenditures require annual review and approval by Congress. The budget is first proposed by the president and then submitted to Congress for review and revision. After both parties reach an agreement, the budget will be formally passed and become law. Due to the \"filibuster\" phenomenon that exists in the legislative process, the passage of fiscal bills often requires the support of a \"super majority\" that exceeds a simple majority. The budget reconciliation process provides a way to bypass the filibuster and pass fiscally related bills with a simple majority. The powers of various levels of U.S. government are divided according to the scope of benefits. The United States implements a three-level fiscal system of federal, state and local levels. Governments at all levels have a certain degree of independence in fiscal policy, but the federal government plays a central role in the implementation of national policy objectives through federal subsidies. The federal government is responsible for national programs such as national security and social welfare, while state and local governments focus on providing local services such as education and public safety. Taxes are the primary source of revenue for all levels of government in the United States. About half of the annual tax revenue in the United States belongs to the federal government, and the remaining half is divided between state and local governments in a roughly 60-40 ratio. Personal income tax is the main tax source for the federal and state governments, while local governments mainly rely on real estate taxes as their source of tax revenue. Most government debt is borne by the federal government. As a supplement to the U.S. tax distribution system, the top-down one-way transfer payment system can promote the effective implementation of national fiscal policies. The U.S. fiscal system shows the following development trends: 1. It tilts back toward Keynesianism at the fiscal ideological level, but at the practical level, U.S. fiscal policy does not have the symmetry of Keynesian theory. After the COVID-19 epidemic, the Federal Reserve once again assumed the sole responsibility of curbing inflation, while the fiscal budget was still trying to expand due to political needs, showing a certain degree of procyclicality. 2. The flexibility of financial decision-making has decreased. In the U.S. fiscal budget, the proportion of discretionary expenditures decreases year by year, while the proportion of mandatory expenditures increases year by year due to the increase in social welfare needs and interest payments. In an election year like 2024, delays in fiscal policy formulation and implementation may be unavoidable. 3. In terms of the relationship between the central and local governments, financial power is gradually tilted towards the federal government. After 2008, as U.S. finance once again moved closer to Keynesianism, the importance of national fiscal policy deepened. The growth of fiscal expenditures of state and local governments almost stagnated, and fiscal stimulus was mainly implemented through the federal government. 4. The scale of fiscal expenditures has gradually increased, while fiscal revenue has been relatively insufficient, resulting in increasing government debt. In the future, whether the U.S. finance will never return to the path of monetizing fiscal deficits, or whether it will return to the self-discipline model with deficit reduction as the highest goal from 1984 to 2008, we still have to wait for the interpretation of history. Risk warning: Fiscal deficit and debt levels; impact of political differences on fiscal policy; sustainability of social security and medical insurance systems.', 'authorid': UUID('f33028d3-8791-5b14-80ca-a862e2ba251a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.20666523650288582, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'FFAESVOLAER9TFK2V6A6R8J08NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:55:44 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'FFAESVOLAER9TFK2V6A6R8J08NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9cfbca23-4f43-526d-8ae2-77b28c13e078'), 'title': 'Comments on import and export data from January to February: Behind the “good start” of exports', 'author': 'Xiao Yu', 'orgName': '中泰证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000157', 'orgSName': '中泰证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xapxTMQc+Ra2GLvWhlb3AHU=', 'researcher': '肖雨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000255536'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xapxTMQc+Ra2GLvWhlb3AHU=', 'site': 'Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中泰证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626021009_1.pdf?1709889511000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626021009_1.pdf?1709889511000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on import and export data from January to February: Behind the “good start” of exports', 'originalAuthor': '肖雨', 'originalContent': '整体来看，进出口均明显超预期。从Wind一致预期来看，进口同比增速超预期（实际值3.5%、预期值0.1%），出口同比增速超预期（实际值7.1%、预期值0.3%），贸易顺差超预期（实际值1251.6亿美元，预期值708.5亿美元）。出口：1-2月份出口同比增速7.1%，将2021、2023年用两年复合增速进行处理，则2024年1-2月出口同比增速由负转正。出口产品来看，一是汽车对出口的支撑作用减弱。2023年12月份，汽车出口向上拉动出口增速约1.0pct；2024年1-2月，汽车正向拉动出口约0.6pct，有所回落。二是地产后周期产品出口金额回升较快。1-2月份，陶瓷、家电、灯具、家具产品出口金额分别同比回升11.8%、17.6%、19.2%、28.7%，环比回升并对出口起到正向拉动作用。三是手机、液晶平板显示模组出口环比回落。1-2���份，手机、液晶平板显示模组出口金额分别相比去年12月份回落15.6pct、1.3pct。分国别来看，新兴国家对出口继续起支撑作用。2024年1-2月，东盟对出口继续起到明显支撑作用，同比增速0.1%，环比回升7.7pct。发达国家制造业景气度依旧低迷，外需可能短期内难以回升，对我国出口形成一定拖累。欧盟、美国出口金额同比增速分别为-2.3%、2.6%，环比回升8.5pct和16.6pct；日本出口增速-10.4%（环比回落1.5个百分点）。进口：1-2月份进口同比增速3.5%，将2021、2023年用两年复合增速进行处理，则2024年1-2月进口同比增速由负转正。分产品来看，原油、电子产品对进口增速起到支撑作用。原油、集成电路、自动数据处理设备、半导体器件1-2月进口金额同比增速较快，相比去年12月份上升8.0pct、19.4pct、29.1pct、17.8pct；汽车以及铁、铜、煤等大宗商品进口金额有所回落，环比回落36.9pct、26.8pct、35.6pct、27.9pct。分国别来看，我国从新兴国家进口金额有所回升，从发达国家进口金额回落。从进口金额来看，东盟、欧盟、美国和日本是主要进口国，1-2月份进口同比增速分别为2.9%、-9.9%、-13.7%、-5.1%，东盟相比去年12月（两年复合增速）回升5.2pct，欧盟、美国和日本分别回落10.3pct、7.6pct、6.9pct。1-2月份进出口数据均超预期改善，主因2023年同期基数较低，这可能和2023年春节较早，复工复产需要一定时间有关，从而拖累了1、2月份进出口总额。若剔除基数效应，考虑两年复合增速，则出口和进口增速分别为-0.9%和-3.5%。因此，此次进出口增速回升不宜过度高估，经济修复进程可能还需经济金融数据的进一步验证。风险提示：海外衰退超预期、地缘政治风险等。', 'content': \"Overall, imports and exports significantly exceeded expectations. Judging from Wind's consensus expectations, the year-on-year growth rate of imports exceeded expectations (actual value 3.5%, expected value 0.1%), the year-on-year growth rate of exports exceeded expectations (actual value 7.1%, expected value 0.3%), and the trade surplus exceeded expectations (actual value 7.1%, expected value 0.3%) US$125.16 billion, expected value of US$70.85 billion). Exports: The year-on-year growth rate of exports in January-February was 7.1%. If 2021 and 2023 are treated as two-year compound growth rates, the year-on-year export growth rate in January-February 2024 will turn from negative to positive. In terms of export products, first, the supporting role of automobiles in exports has weakened. In December 2023, automobile exports will drive export growth upward by about 1.0 pct; from January to February 2024, automobile exports will drive export growth by about 0.6 pct, which has declined. Second, the export volume of real estate post-cyclical products has rebounded rapidly. From January to February, the export value of ceramics, home appliances, lamps, and furniture products rebounded by 11.8%, 17.6%, 19.2%, and 28.7% year-on-year respectively. The month-on-month rebound has played a positive role in boosting exports. Third, exports of mobile phone and LCD flat panel display modules fell from the previous month. From January to February, the export value of mobile phone and LCD flat panel display modules fell by 15.6pct and 1.3pct respectively compared with December last year. From a country-by-country perspective, emerging countries continue to play a supportive role in exports. From January to February 2024, ASEAN continued to play a significant supporting role in exports, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.1% and a month-on-month rebound of 7.7pct. The manufacturing boom in developed countries is still sluggish, and external demand may be difficult to pick up in the short term, which will pose a certain drag on my country's exports. The export value of the EU and the United States grew by -2.3% and 2.6% respectively year-on-year, up 8.5pct and 16.6pct from the previous month; Japan's export growth rate was -10.4% (down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month). Imports: The year-on-year growth rate of imports in January-February was 3.5%. If 2021 and 2023 are treated as two-year compound growth rates, the year-on-year growth rate of imports in January-February 2024 will turn from negative to positive. In terms of products, crude oil and electronic products play a supporting role in import growth. The import value of crude oil, integrated circuits, automatic data processing equipment, and semiconductor devices increased rapidly year-on-year from January to February, up 8.0pct, 19.4pct, 29.1pct, and 17.8pct compared with December last year; automobiles, iron, copper, coal, etc. The amount of bulk commodity imports fell, with month-on-month decreases of 36.9pct, 26.8pct, 35.6pct, and 27.9pct. From a country-by-country perspective, my country's imports from emerging countries have rebounded, while imports from developed countries have fallen. In terms of import value, ASEAN, the EU, the United States and Japan are the main importing countries. The year-on-year import growth rates from January to February were 2.9%, -9.9%, -13.7%, and -5.1% respectively. ASEAN compared with December last year ( The two-year compound growth rate) rebounded by 5.2pct, while the EU, the United States and Japan fell by 10.3pct, 7.6pct and 6.9pct respectively. The import and export data from January to February improved beyond expectations, mainly due to the low base in the same period in 2023. This may be related to the early Spring Festival in 2023, which will take some time to resume work and production, thus dragging down the total import and export volume in January and February. If the base effect is eliminated and the two-year compound growth rate is considered, the export and import growth rates are -0.9% and -3.5% respectively. Therefore, the rebound in import and export growth should not be overestimated. The economic recovery process may require further verification of economic and financial data. Risk warning: overseas recession exceeds expectations, geopolitical risks, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('8140c451-8a6a-5e7d-961a-cec7a4ef1548'), 'sentimentScore': 0.5225927382707596, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '9FM9LNL5MHDUV31BK7I9NG1L3RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:55:46 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '9FM9LNL5MHDUV31BK7I9NG1L3RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('441b9138-c3c6-56b2-a0e1-b1fb34dc9356'), 'title': 'Domestic Observation: Import and export data from January to February 2024: Both import and export rebounded beyond expectations', 'author': 'Liu Sijia, Hu Shaohua', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xRJ90nRXM9NGjtlI37oKTVs=', 'researcher': '刘思佳,胡少华', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257478', '11000249934'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xRJ90nRXM9NGjtlI37oKTVs=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626019385_1.pdf?1709888235000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626019385_1.pdf?1709888235000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Domestic Observation: Import and export data from January to February 2024: Both import and export rebounded beyond expectations', 'originalAuthor': '刘思佳,胡少华', 'originalContent': '投资要点事件：3月7日，海关总署发布2024年1-2月外贸数据。2024年1-2月，以美元计价，出口增速7.1%，前值2.3%；进口增速3.5%，前值0.2%；贸易差额1251.6亿美元，较去年同期增长213.72亿美元。核心观点：整体来看，2024年开年出口同比增速延续上升趋势，或受去年低基数以及外需回暖的影响，机电产品出口持续保持高位，船舶出口亮眼，凸显产业链优势。进口增速回升，低基数效性可能相对明显。两会政策定调积极，进口需求上关注大规模设备更新投资的进展、专项债的发行节奏、留存于今年的5000亿元增发国债实物工作量形成情况。总的来看，美国库存水平位于低位，外需具备韧性，净出口若全年有较好表现，或将在一定程度上对冲地产投资下行的压力。外需稳定，出口超季节性。出口同比增速回升虽然有低基数的影响，但1-2月合并较去年12月环比增长73.91%，高于近5年同期均值54.58%，明显超季节性，反映出外需的韧性。2月摩根大通全球制造业PMI小幅上涨至50.3%，重返荣枯线以上。美国2月Markit制造业PMI终值录得52.2，2023年12月库存同比增速0.44%，为2000年以来17.36%分位数水平。欧洲制造业景气水平偏弱，但东盟2月制造业PMI升至50.4%。日本制造业PMI继续回落至47.2。韩国1-2月出口累计同比两位数以上增长，整体来看呈向好趋势。分国别看，对东盟、美国出口增速相对较高。1-2月，对东盟出口增速升至6.0%。增速较12月增长12.14个百分点，出口规模占比第一。对美国（5.0%）出口增速回正，增速较12月增长11.89个百分点。对欧盟（-1.3%）出口增速小幅回落，对日本（-9.7%）出口增速降幅扩大，较12月减少2.4个百分点。船舶出口亮眼。从出口产品来看，大类中，机电产品出口（8.5%）增速较快，较12月上升8.2个百分点。船舶出口金额、数量增速双升，其中金额同比较前值上涨144.5个百分点至173.1%，数量同比由负转正，上涨97.8个百分点至59.9%。集成电路出口金额同比增速上涨21.7个百分点至24.3%，但出口数量下降1.4个百分点至6.3%，可能主要受价格贡献。而汽车在高基数影响下出口金额和出口数量同比分别较12月下降39.4和14.0个百分点，汽车降价可能是影响因素之一。手机出口金额同比下降17.8个百分点至-18.2%，出口数量同比下降6.5个百分点12.8%，形成一定拖累。基数影响下进口增速回升。2023年1-2月进口金额合计3893.1亿美元，与2022年以及2021年相比，基数水平不高，进口增速回升受低基数的影响可能较大。分进口产品大类来看，高新技术产品进口金额增速上涨10.5个百分点至11.9%，机电产品上涨5.5个百分点至7.7%，农产品上涨0.4个百分点至-6.5%。从主要商品来看，集成电路量价齐升，进口金额和进口数量增速较上月分别上涨18.7、10.8个百分点至15.3%、16.8%。煤、肥料量价齐跌，进口金额增速较上月分别回落28.5、23个百分点至-5.1%、-4.0%，进口数量增速较上月分别回落30.1、46.5个百分点至22.9%、62.0%，量上的影响相对更大。内需层面来看，基建处于淡季，地方财力受限对传统基建的影响仍需持续跟踪；另一方面，当前房地产市场仍相对偏弱，需求受限。春节后，开工率逐步恢复，但整体节奏并不快，预计3月低基数影响消退后，进口增速或有回落。风险提示：1）政策落地不及预期。2）海外金融市场风险。', 'content': \"Key investment events: On March 7, the General Administration of Customs released foreign trade data from January to February 2024. From January to February 2024, in U.S. dollars, exports grew by 7.1%, compared with the previous value of 2.3%; imports grew by 3.5%, compared with the previous value of 0.2%; the trade balance was US$125.16 billion, an increase of US$21.372 billion over the same period last year. Core point of view: Overall, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in the beginning of 2024 will continue to rise. It may be affected by last year's low base and the rebound in external demand. The export of mechanical and electrical products continues to remain at a high level, and the export of ships is eye-catching, highlighting the advantages of the industrial chain. Import growth is picking up, and the low base effect may be relatively obvious. The two sessions have set a positive policy tone. In terms of import demand, attention will be paid to the progress of large-scale equipment renewal investment, the issuance rhythm of special bonds, and the formation of the physical workload of the 500 billion yuan in additional issuance of government bonds reserved for this year. Overall, U.S. inventory levels are at a low level and external demand is resilient. If net exports perform well throughout the year, it may be able to offset the downward pressure on real estate investment to a certain extent. External demand is stable and exports are super seasonal. Although the year-on-year growth rate of exports rebounded due to the impact of a low base, the combined January-February growth rate was 73.91% month-on-month compared to December last year, which was higher than the average of 54.58% for the same period in the past five years. It was obviously super seasonal and reflected the resilience of external demand. In February, JPMorgan Chase's global manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 50.3%, returning to above the boom-bust line. The final value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in February was recorded at 52.2. Inventory growth in December 2023 was 0.44% year-on-year, which was the 17.36% quantile level since 2000. The European manufacturing boom level is weak, but the ASEAN manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4% in February. Japan's manufacturing PMI continued to fall to 47.2. South Korea's exports from January to February increased by more than double digits year-on-year, showing an overall positive trend. Looking at different countries, the growth rate of exports to ASEAN and the United States is relatively high. From January to February, the export growth rate to ASEAN rose to 6.0%. The growth rate increased by 12.14 percentage points compared with December, and export scale ranked first. The growth rate of exports to the United States (5.0%) returned to positive levels, with the growth rate increasing by 11.89 percentage points compared with December. The growth rate of exports to the EU (-1.3%) fell slightly, and the growth rate of exports to Japan (-9.7%) expanded, 2.4 percentage points lower than in December. Ship exports are outstanding. From the perspective of export products, among the major categories, exports of mechanical and electrical products (8.5%) grew faster, up 8.2 percentage points from December. Both the value and quantity of ship exports increased, with the value rising by 144.5 percentage points to 173.1% year-on-year, and the quantity turning from negative to positive year-on-year, rising by 97.8 percentage points to 59.9%. The export value of integrated circuits increased by 21.7 percentage points year-on-year to 24.3%, but the export volume fell by 1.4 percentage points to 6.3%, which may be mainly due to price contribution. Affected by the high base, the export value and export quantity of automobiles fell by 39.4 and 14.0 percentage points year-on-year respectively compared with December. Auto price reduction may be one of the influencing factors. The export value of mobile phones fell by 17.8 percentage points year-on-year to -18.2%, and the export quantity dropped by 6.5 percentage points year-on-year to 12.8%, which caused a certain drag. Under the influence of the base, import growth picked up. The total import value from January to February 2023 was US$389.31 billion. Compared with 2022 and 2021, the base level is not high, and the recovery in import growth may be greatly affected by the low base. In terms of imported product categories, the import value of high-tech products increased by 10.5 percentage points to 11.9%, mechanical and electrical products increased by 5.5 percentage points to 7.7%, and agricultural products increased by 0.4 percentage points to -6.5%. From the perspective of major commodities, the volume and price of integrated circuits increased. The growth rate of import value and import quantity increased by 18.7 and 10.8 percentage points respectively from the previous month to 15.3% and 16.8%. Both the volume and price of coal and fertilizers fell. The growth rate of import value fell by 28.5 and 23 percentage points respectively from the previous month to -5.1% and -4.0%. The growth rate of import quantity fell by 30.1 and 46.5 percentage points respectively from the previous month to 22.9% and 62.0%. %, the quantitative impact is relatively greater. From the perspective of domestic demand, infrastructure construction is in the off-season, and the impact of limited local financial resources on traditional infrastructure still needs to be tracked; on the other hand, the current real estate market is still relatively weak and demand is limited. After the Spring Festival, the operating rate gradually recovered, but the overall pace was not fast. It is expected that after the impact of the low base in March subsides, the import growth rate may fall back. Risk warning: 1) Policy implementation falls short of expectations. 2) Overseas financial market risks.\", 'authorid': UUID('2bb8c3e6-3f18-54fc-986c-cc6e63caf435'), 'sentimentScore': 0.903772160410881, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'MSGUP7JBEM9CDJKMJHKGOEB88JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:55:49 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'MSGUP7JBEM9CDJKMJHKGOEB88JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1a4bd6c4-22dc-5660-bd7c-45c674bc41c7'), 'title': 'Macro daily: Import and export data may bring opportunities for upward revision of macro expectations', 'author': 'Cai Shaoli, Gao Cong', 'orgName': '华泰期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80055521', 'orgSName': '华泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xaBHbpjunw8nYspC6BwCMOE=', 'researcher': '蔡劭立,高聪', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000304033', '11000304231'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xaBHbpjunw8nYspC6BwCMOE=', 'site': 'Huatai Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626018878_1.pdf?1709887040000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626018878_1.pdf?1709887040000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro daily: Import and export data may bring opportunities for upward revision of macro expectations', 'originalAuthor': '蔡劭立,高聪', 'originalContent': '策略摘要商品期货：整体中性，关注芳烃系化工（EB、PX、TA）、生猪、贵金属等结构性买入套保机会；股指期货：逢低买入套保。核心观点市场分析宏观预期有望迎来上修契机。海关总署公布的1-2月进出口数据明显改善，其中去年海外的高库存导致的低出口基数是原因之一，但就算剔除季节性后仍有出口明显改善，分项来看，纺织服装、塑料制品和地产后周期的家电、加剧等产品出口继续回升。现阶段核心矛盾在于复工复产进度偏慢，以及2024年后整体债务发行节奏平稳，政策超前发力的迹象不明显。那么去年作为拖累项的出口改善或将成为宏观预期上修的契机，后续还需要看到复工复产推进以及政策衔接等信号进一步确认。全国两会的历史规律：复盘近11年的两会资产样本：A股受益明显，两会后一周和后一月中证1000和中证500表现较强，样本上涨概率在70%左右；商品在两会期间有所承压，两会后逐步企稳修复。节后第二周，商品交投仍清淡。黑色方面，钢厂原料补库不及预期，铁水产量小幅下滑，仍需关注复工复产进度；有色整体延续季节性累库趋势，下游需求平淡；能源短期受到俄乌冲突导致的炼厂加工量下降以及红海事件的支撑；化工板块芳烃线具有韧性，关注苯乙烯、PX、PTA的机会，目前处于驱动强，但估值亦偏高的状态，此外橡胶供给受限需求则逐步恢复，亦可以关注；农产品方面，节后猪价有所走强，关注远端供应短缺下的行情抢跑可能。贵金属方面，美联储沃勒“反扭曲操作”的相关言论带动美联储降息计价触底回升，结合3月议息会议或将讨论放缓QT，贵金属多配窗口重新打开，关注本周四公布的欧洲央行利率决议，目前衍生品计价欧洲央行的首次降息将在6或7月。风险地缘政治风险（能源板块上行风险）；全球经济超预期下行（风险资产下行风险）；美联储超预期收紧（风险资产下行风险）；海外流动性风险冲击（风险资产下行风险）。', 'content': 'Strategy summary: Commodity futures: overall neutral, focusing on structural buying and hedging opportunities such as aromatic chemicals (EB, PX, TA), pigs, precious metals, etc.; stock index futures: buying on dips for hedging. The core view of market analysis is that macroeconomic expectations are expected to usher in an opportunity for upward revision. The import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs improved significantly from January to February. Among them, the low export base caused by high overseas inventory last year was one of the reasons. However, even after excluding seasonality, exports still improved significantly. In terms of items, textiles and clothing Exports of products such as home appliances, plastic products and real estate intensified after the cycle continued to rebound. The core contradiction at this stage is that the resumption of work and production is slow, and the overall pace of debt issuance after 2024 is stable, and there are no obvious signs of policy advancement. Then the improvement in exports, which was a drag last year, may become an opportunity for upward revision of macroeconomic expectations. In the future, we need to see further confirmation of signals such as the resumption of work and production and the convergence of policies. The historical pattern of the National Two Sessions: Review of asset samples from the Two Sessions in the past 11 years: A-shares benefited significantly, the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 performed strongly one week and one month after the Two Sessions, and the probability of the sample rising was about 70%; commodities rose during the Two Sessions There was some pressure during the period, but it gradually stabilized and recovered after the two sessions. In the second week after the holiday, commodity trading remained light. On the black side, steel mills\\' raw material replenishment fell short of expectations, and molten iron production declined slightly. We still need to pay attention to the progress of resumption of work and production; non-ferrous metals as a whole continued the seasonal inventory accumulation trend, and downstream demand was flat; energy was affected by the short-term decline in refinery processing volume caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As well as the support of the Red Sea incident; the aromatics line of the chemical industry sector is resilient. Pay attention to the opportunities of styrene, PX, and PTA. It is currently in a strong driving state, but the valuation is also on the high side. In addition, the demand for rubber supply is gradually recovering, and you can also pay attention to it. ; In terms of agricultural products, pig prices have strengthened after the holiday, and we are concerned about the possibility of a market jump due to remote supply shortages. In terms of precious metals, Fed Waller\\'s remarks about \"anti-distortion operations\" have driven the Fed\\'s interest rate cut pricing to bottom out and rebound. Combined with the March interest rate meeting, which may discuss slowing down QT, the precious metals long-allocation window has reopened. Pay attention to the European Central Bank\\'s announcement on Thursday. Interest rate decision, currently derivatives price the European Central Bank\\'s first interest rate cut will be in June or July. Risks include geopolitical risks (upward risks for the energy sector); unexpected downturns in the global economy (downward risks for risky assets); unexpected tightening by the Federal Reserve (downward risks for risky assets); overseas liquidity risk impacts (downward risks for risky assets).', 'authorid': UUID('1f2a6e53-dc21-5b64-b53e-783c1fe16451'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8901544883847237, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'AP9847FFA1EEQ5BCR3599I1UNNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:55:52 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'AP9847FFA1EEQ5BCR3599I1UNNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e0726493-ab7e-5995-b5f3-e3923af61697'), 'title': 'Comments on foreign trade data from January to February 2024: Exports get off to a good start', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Chang Yixin', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xQD53HLVqVXzNx/8DoPAqh0=', 'researcher': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000387731'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xQD53HLVqVXzNx/8DoPAqh0=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626016421_1.pdf?1709883277000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626016421_1.pdf?1709883277000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on foreign trade data from January to February 2024: Exports get off to a good start', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'originalContent': '按美元计价，2024年1-2月中国出口同比增长7.1%，进口同比增长3.5%，贸易顺差同比扩大20.5%。当前中国出口与进口增长呈现出以下主要变化：中国出口开门红，环比表现强于季节性。按美元计价，2024年1-2月中国出口同比增长7.1%，较去年末提升4.8个百分点。从环比增速看，2024年1-2月中国出口环比回落-9.8%，强于2014-2023年-20.4%的均值水平。港口货物和集装箱吞吐量等高频数据也可印证，海外需求恢复是出口表现偏强的原因所在。摩根大通全球制造业PMI在1月触及50，2月升至50.3，而此前连续16个月处荣枯线以下。以美元计价，1-2月韩国、越南出口累计同比分别增长11.2%、19.2%。总结来看，开年中国出口恢复势头较好，“外循环”走向修复，为“内循环”走向再平衡创造良好环境，也有助于人民币汇率的稳定。机电产品是出口结构的亮点，或提振装备制造业工业增加值表现。出口国别结构上，美国、东盟、非洲、拉美等区域对中国出口的贡献提升。分国别看：1）美国对中国出口同比增速的拉动为0.7个百分点，而去年末为拖累1.1个百分点。主要得益于制造业需求的恢复，美国Markit制造业PMI数据在1-2月持续回升，均处于荣枯线以上。2）欧盟、日本及韩国等非美发达经济体经济需求恢复弱于美国，对中国出口同比增速的贡献较去年末分别增0.1个百分点、减0.2个百分点、减0.3个百分点。3）“一带一路”相关的东盟、非洲、拉美、印度等区域对中国出口的拉动合计较上月提升4.1个百分点，但前期偏强的俄罗斯对中国出口的拉动减弱0.2个百分点。出口产品结构上，机电产品、劳动密集型产品对中国出口的带动均提升。1）机电产品对总体出口的拉动较去年末提升4.8个百分点。以集成电路、船舶、通用机械设备表现偏强，拉动分别提升0.8、0.6和0.5个百分点；电脑、汽车零配件、家电音视频、灯具等也有带动。仅手机、汽车及其底盘拉动减弱。2）劳动密集型产品对总体出口的带动较上月提升2.8个百分点，服装、纺织品、塑料制品、箱包、玩具、家具及其零件等主要产品均有提升。3）除机电产品、劳动密集型产品之外，其他产品对出口的拉动较上月回落2.8个百分点。中国进口增速回升，主要受机电产品、高技术产品及原材料带动，劳动密集型产品的拖累有所加大。以美元计价，2024年1-2月中国进口增速为3.5%，较去年末回升3.3个百分点。从产品结构看：1）机电产品及高技术产品对中国进口增速的拉动明显提升，分别较去年末提升1.7和2.4个百分点；集成电路的表现较为突出，得益于去年同期基数偏低，且当前全球半导体及消费电子行业周期趋向回稳。2）原材料产品对中国进口的拉动也提升0.5个百分点。其中，天然气、原油等能源进口增速回升，对中国进口的拉动合计提升2.4个百分点；但煤及褐煤、铜矿砂及其精矿、成品油等原材料进口增速回落，形成一定对冲。3）劳动密集型产品对中国进口的拉动减弱0.9个百分点，主要受医药材、纸浆的拖累。', 'content': 'In US dollar terms, China\\'s exports increased by 7.1% year-on-year in January-February 2024, imports increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the trade surplus expanded by 20.5% year-on-year. The current growth of China\\'s exports and imports shows the following main changes: China\\'s exports have had a good start, and the month-on-month performance is stronger than seasonal. In US dollar terms, China\\'s exports from January to February 2024 increased by 7.1% year-on-year, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the end of last year. Looking at the month-on-month growth rate, China\\'s exports fell by -9.8% month-on-month from January to February 2024, which is stronger than the average level of -20.4% from 2014-2023. High-frequency data such as port cargo and container throughput can also confirm that the recovery of overseas demand is the reason for the strong export performance. JPMorgan Chase\\'s global manufacturing PMI hit 50 in January and rose to 50.3 in February, after remaining below the boom-bust line for 16 consecutive months. In US dollars, exports from South Korea and Vietnam increased by 11.2% and 19.2% year-on-year respectively from January to February. In summary, China\\'s exports have recovered well in the beginning of the year, and the \"external circulation\" is repairing, creating a good environment for the \"internal circulation\" to be rebalanced, and also conducive to the stability of the RMB exchange rate. Mechanical and electrical products are the highlight of the export structure and may boost the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry. In terms of export country structure, the contribution of the United States, ASEAN, Africa, Latin America and other regions to China\\'s exports has increased. Looking at it by country: 1) The year-on-year growth rate of U.S. exports to China was driven by 0.7 percentage points, while it was a drag of 1.1 percentage points at the end of last year. Mainly due to the recovery of manufacturing demand, the US Markit manufacturing PMI data continued to rebound from January to February, both above the boom and bust line. 2) The recovery of economic demand in non-US developed economies such as the European Union, Japan and South Korea is weaker than that of the United States, and their contribution to the year-on-year growth rate of China\\'s exports increased by 0.1 percentage point, decreased by 0.2 percentage point, and decreased by 0.3 percentage point respectively compared with the end of last year. 3) The total boost to China’s exports from ASEAN, Africa, Latin America, India and other regions related to the “Belt and Road Initiative” increased by 4.1 percentage points from the previous month, but Russia’s boost to China’s exports, which was stronger in the early stage, weakened by 0.2 percentage points. In terms of export product structure, mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products have driven exports to China higher. 1) The contribution of mechanical and electrical products to overall exports increased by 4.8 percentage points compared with the end of last year. Integrated circuits, ships, and general machinery and equipment performed strongly, driving increases of 0.8, 0.6, and 0.5 percentage points respectively; computers, auto parts, home appliances, audio and video, and lamps also contributed. Only phones, cars and their chassis pull less. 2) The contribution of labor-intensive products to overall exports increased by 2.8 percentage points from the previous month. Major products such as clothing, textiles, plastic products, bags, toys, furniture and their parts all increased. 3) Except for mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products, the contribution of other products to exports fell by 2.8 percentage points from the previous month. China\\'s import growth has picked up, mainly driven by mechanical and electrical products, high-tech products and raw materials, with labor-intensive products being increasingly dragged down. In US dollars, China\\'s import growth rate from January to February 2024 was 3.5%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from the end of last year. From the perspective of product structure: 1) Mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products have significantly increased China’s import growth, increasing by 1.7 and 2.4 percentage points respectively from the end of last year; the performance of integrated circuits is more outstanding, benefiting from the low base in the same period last year. And the current global semiconductor and consumer electronics industry cycle is tending to stabilize. 2) The contribution of raw material products to China’s imports also increased by 0.5 percentage points. Among them, the growth rate of natural gas, crude oil and other energy imports picked up, and the total contribution to China\\'s imports increased by 2.4 percentage points; however, the growth rate of raw material imports such as coal and lignite, copper ore and their concentrates, and refined oil fell back, forming a certain offset. 3) The contribution of labor-intensive products to China\\'s imports weakened by 0.9 percentage points, mainly affected by pharmaceutical materials and pulp.', 'authorid': UUID('149306d1-3d93-5b17-941a-f5aa3a00dc04'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9321723822504282, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8TKATAFS1SI30G5TMT6IKQMF8BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:55:55 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8TKATAFS1SI30G5TMT6IKQMF8BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7d201e1b-55fb-5789-b5cb-5f8d4244c3b9'), 'title': 'Comments on import and export data from January to February 2024', 'author': 'Luo Yunfeng, Niu Yi', 'orgName': '华金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000134', 'orgSName': '华金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xeZepspAfhyq5sBIqdOtb4M=', 'researcher': '罗云峰,牛逸', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000218293', '11000440547'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xeZepspAfhyq5sBIqdOtb4M=', 'site': 'Huajin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626016193_1.pdf?1709891505000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081626016193_1.pdf?1709891505000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on import and export data from January to February 2024', 'originalAuthor': '罗云峰,牛逸', 'originalContent': '以美元计价，2024年1-2月出口金额同比增长7.1%，高于万得一致预期2.7%，前值为2.3%（2023年12月同比）；1-2月进口金额同比增长3.5%，高于万得一致预期0.3%，前值为0.2%。出口方面分量价来看，1-2月主要出口商品受数量影响更大，价格对出口有所拖累。南华综合指数与出口价格指数(HS2)相关性较强，2024年1月、2月南华综合指数连续下跌。PMI新出口订单与出口数量同比指数(HS2)相关性较强，1月、2月PMI新出口订单分别为47.20、46.30，较12月45.80有所恢复。分地区看，1-2月对主要生产国增速变动不一：对韩出口减少6.8pct至-9.9%，对日本减少2.4pct至-9.7%，对东盟出口增加12.1pct至6.0%大幅回正，其中对越南、马来西亚、泰国、新加坡、印度尼西亚、菲律宾分别增加19.8pct、4.2pct、12.1pct、3.5pct、22.6pct、8.6pct至24.1%、4.8%、8.2%、-17.2%、18.8%、-11.9%。对主要消费品国家或地区出口增速回正：对美出口增加11.9pct至5.0%，对欧盟增加0.6pct至-1.3%，对英国下降2.9pct至4.9%，对俄罗斯下降9.1pct至12.5%。2024年1-2月出口迎来开门红，仅略低于2022年同期。重点出口产品较12月量价齐升。劳密产品出口回升，服装、箱包、纺织品、鞋靴、家具、玩具出口金额同比增速增加，整体量价齐升。电子产品中，手机同比增速下降17.89pct至-18.24%，景气度尚处低位。家用电器继续增长6.1pct至20.81%。集成电路增长21.68pct至24.27%。汽车出口增速回落39.41pct至12.56%，量增价减。船舶则再次大增144.58pct至173.13%，持续维持高增速。运价方面，受1月红海危机继续发酵叠加2月春节影响，各航线集装箱运价指数在1月大幅上涨后，节后恢复略显缓慢。欧洲、地中海航线1月涨幅达85.49%、68.95%。运价整体较2022年和2023年同期表现稳步向好。2024年1-2月进口超预期，继12月回正后进一步改善。分商品看，粮食、大豆同比增速继续下行至-14.86%、-22.20%，受数量影响更大。大宗商品进口增速回落，铁矿砂、铜矿砂、煤及褐煤同比增速均呈现量价齐减，原油量价齐升，成品油价增量减，天然气量增价减。机电产品回升5.47pct至7.71%，自动数据处理设备及其零部件、二极管及类似半导体器件、集成电路整体量价齐升，进口金额分别大增39.95pct、22.90pct、18.65pct至67.31%、5.02%、15.27%。1-2月能源、工业原材料进口情况与PMI指数仍处荣枯线之下相互印证，或显示生产端恢复基础尚不牢固。2024年1月、2月，美国制造业PMI分别为49.10、47.80，欧元区为46.60、46.50，日本为48.00、47.20，韩国为51.20、50.70，均在2月有所回落。全球经济整体仍处恢复进程，但恢复力度有所减弱。整体而言，受基数效应影响，1月物量数据表现较为强劲、2月则较为疲弱，本轮下行周期目前判断基本在4个月左右（2023年12月-2024年3月）。2024年预计资产端实际GDP增速平稳运行，在4-5%之间窄幅波动。我们维持出口增速边际企稳，全年实现小幅增长的判断不变。风险提示：经济失速下滑、政策超预期宽松', 'content': \"In U.S. dollars, the export value from January to February 2024 increased by 7.1% year-on-year, higher than Wind's consensus estimate of 2.7%, and the previous value was 2.3% (year-on-year in December 2023); the import value from January to February increased by 3.5% year-on-year, It was 0.3% higher than Wind's consensus estimate and the previous value was 0.2%. In terms of export volume and price, the main export commodities from January to February were more affected by quantity, and prices were a drag on exports. The Nanhua Composite Index has a strong correlation with the export price index (HS2). In January and February 2024, the Nanhua Composite Index fell continuously. PMI new export orders have a strong correlation with the export quantity year-on-year index (HS2). PMI new export orders in January and February were 47.20 and 46.30 respectively, recovering from 45.80 in December. In terms of regions, the growth rates of major producing countries varied from January to February: exports to South Korea decreased by 6.8pct to -9.9%, exports to Japan decreased by 2.4pct to -9.7%, and exports to ASEAN increased by 12.1pct to 6.0%. Positive, of which Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines increased by 19.8pct, 4.2pct, 12.1pct, 3.5pct, 22.6pct, and 8.6pct respectively to 24.1%, 4.8%, 8.2%, -17.2%, and 18.8%. , -11.9%. The growth rate of exports to major consumer goods countries or regions returned to positive levels: exports to the United States increased by 11.9pct to 5.0%, exports to the EU increased by 0.6pct to -1.3%, exports to the UK fell by 2.9pct to 4.9%, and exports to Russia fell by 9.1pct to 12.5%. Exports from January to February 2024 are off to a good start, only slightly lower than the same period in 2022. The volume and price of key export products increased compared with December. The export of Laomi products rebounded, with the export value of clothing, bags, textiles, shoes, furniture, and toys increasing year-on-year, and the overall volume and price rising. Among electronic products, the year-on-year growth rate of mobile phones dropped by 17.89pct to -18.24%, and the prosperity is still at a low level. Household appliances continued to grow by 6.1pct to 20.81%. Integrated circuits increased by 21.68pct to 24.27%. The growth rate of automobile exports dropped by 39.41pct to 12.56%, with volume increasing and price decreasing. The number of ships increased sharply again by 144.58pct to 173.13%, continuing to maintain a high growth rate. In terms of freight rates, due to the continued fermentation of the Red Sea crisis in January and the impact of the Spring Festival in February, the container freight index of various routes rose sharply in January, and the post-holiday recovery was slightly slow. European and Mediterranean routes increased by 85.49% and 68.95% in January. The overall freight rate performance is steadily improving compared with the same period in 2022 and 2023. Imports from January to February 2024 exceeded expectations and improved further after returning to positive levels in December. In terms of commodities, the year-on-year growth rates of grain and soybeans continued to decline to -14.86% and -22.20%, which were more affected by quantity. The growth rate of bulk commodity imports has slowed down. The year-on-year growth rates of iron ore, copper ore, coal and lignite have all shown a decrease in volume and price. The volume and price of crude oil have both increased. The increase in the price of refined oil has decreased, and the increase in natural gas has decreased in price. Mechanical and electrical products rebounded by 5.47pct to 7.71%. Automatic data processing equipment and its components, diodes and similar semiconductor devices, and integrated circuits increased in overall volume and price. The import value increased significantly by 39.95pct, 22.90pct, and 18.65pct to 67.31% and 5.02 respectively. %, 15.27%. The import situation of energy and industrial raw materials from January to February and the PMI index are still below the boom and bust line, which mutually confirms each other, which may indicate that the foundation for the recovery of the production side is not yet solid. In January and February 2024, the U.S. manufacturing PMI was 49.10 and 47.80 respectively, the euro zone was 46.60 and 46.50, Japan was 48.00 and 47.20, and South Korea was 51.20 and 50.70. They all fell back in February. The global economy as a whole is still in the process of recovery, but the intensity of recovery has weakened. Overall, due to the base effect, the volume data in January was relatively strong and February was relatively weak. The current downward cycle is currently estimated to be around 4 months (December 2023-March 2024). In 2024, the real GDP growth rate on the asset side is expected to run smoothly, fluctuating within a narrow range of 4-5%. We maintain that export growth has been marginally stable, and our judgment of achieving slight growth throughout the year remains unchanged. Risk warning: The economy stalls and declines, and policies are looser than expected\", 'authorid': UUID('a7eff2c8-f33d-545c-a413-5aeee64c1096'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7376101091504097, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OH79CT2BFBVA4E6A14I3PB1FGRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:55:58 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OH79CT2BFBVA4E6A14I3PB1FGRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a567a51c-f670-5725-b7a5-ed276baae63a'), 'title': 'Comments on import and export data: Excluding the leap year Spring Festival effect, exports are hardly strong.', 'author': 'Qin Tai', 'orgName': '华金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000134', 'orgSName': '华金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-08', 'encodeUrl': 'B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xYstUQcwZDd9Wvz5xddGfoA=', 'researcher': '秦泰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249937'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=B93udXDJV7EjtstAAb8+xYstUQcwZDd9Wvz5xddGfoA=', 'site': 'Huajin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081625986119_1.pdf?1709886344000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403081625986119_1.pdf?1709886344000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on import and export data: Excluding the leap year Spring Festival effect, exports are hardly strong.', 'originalAuthor': '秦泰', 'originalContent': '1-2月出口同比显著上行至7.1%，但主因春节延迟和闰年叠加导致的暂时推升作用，剔除闰年春节效应，1-2月出口同比增长1.8%，稍低于前月。作为市场上率先关注到春节前后出口的大幅季节性异动模式的团队，我们通过不断升级的量化春节调整模型从一季度出口数据中更加精准地进行出口趋势的分析和预测。春节前数日出口集中，而节后约一个月内出口均不同程度走弱。2024年春节较2023年大幅推迟，节后偏弱效应部分延宕至3月，叠加2024年为闰年，“二月强三月弱”效应极为明显，对出口形成短暂推升效果。1-2月出口（美元计价）同比增长7.1%，较前月增速明显上行，我们使用“华金宏观—闰年+春节出口调整模型”将上述扰动因素剔除后，1-2月出口同比增速为1.8%，稍低于2023年12月0.5个百分点。重点类别商品出口展现此消彼长的三条逻辑：尚未受不利外部政策影响的中端商品出口改善，芯片和消费电子产品出口稳中向好，汽车及零部件出口开始降温。从重点出口商品类别表现来看，剔除闰年春节效应和基数变化（2023年1-2月出口还受到疫情带来的扰动）：1）陶瓷钢铝材、家具灯具等中端消费品和中间品出口表现相对较好，这些中端商品当前并未受到不利外部贸易环境的影响，因并非尖端科技产品，未来受限制的可能性也不大。2）集成电路和消费电子出口整体表现稳中向好，作为受美国“脱钩断链”政策影响至目前最直接的领域，持续呈现来自国内产业链支撑的底部韧性。3）汽车和汽车零部件出口开始降温，包括新能源汽车在内的这一大类别截至目前尚未开始受到实质性的外部贸易限制性措施的直接冲击，但近期美国、欧盟贸易政策环境对自华进口新能源汽车的友好度迅速下降，后续可能面临更大下行压力。进口增速在闰年春节效应一定程度的推升作用和加工贸易中间品强劲增长的拉动下，也出现比较明显的回升。1-2月进口（美元计价）累计同比较2023年12月上行3.3个百分点至3.5%，除也一定程度受闰年春节效应推升之外，加工贸易中间品进口增长强劲。美国对华尖端科技产业链的围堵政策正在从半导体电子产业链向欧洲、向新能源汽车领域蔓延，年初看似高增的出口实则主要由闰年春节效应扰动，严峻的外部贸易投资政策环境令我们决定小幅下修全年出口增速预测，全年经济增长目标更需国内投资消费夯实大循环内生主动力才能有力完成。年初以来进入大选年的美国政府在对华先进产业链“围堵”政策的道路上进行更多危险的尝试，继限制对我国相关企业出口尖端半导体芯片并对产业链合作施加不合理限制之后，拜登政府再度提出拟对自华进口新能源汽车采取限制性措施，同时欧盟近期也宣布将对从中国进口的纯电动汽车进行海关登记，反补贴调查完成后可能将征收“追溯性关税”。这些最新的外部环境复杂化局面可能令已经开始降温的汽车出口全年增长趋势低于我们此前的预期，并可能波及至电池等我国具有明显优势的相关领域。我们小幅下修2024年出口（美元计价）同比增速预测2个百分点至0%左右，预计净出口或拖累全年实际GDP同比增速约0.4个百分点。这意味着全年经济增长目标的完成，需更多依赖国内消费投资互动关系的改善以及国内大循环内生主动力的夯实。风险提示：外需降温速度超预期风险。', 'content': 'Exports in January-February rose significantly to 7.1% year-on-year, but this was mainly due to the temporary boost caused by the delayed Spring Festival and the superposition of leap years. Excluding the Spring Festival effect in leap years, exports in January-February increased by 1.8% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous month. As the first team in the market to pay attention to the large seasonal changes in exports around the Spring Festival, we use the continuously upgraded quantitative Spring Festival adjustment model to more accurately analyze and predict export trends from the first quarter export data. Exports were concentrated in the days before the Spring Festival, while exports weakened to varying degrees in about a month after the Spring Festival. The Spring Festival in 2024 is significantly postponed compared to 2023, and the weak post-holiday effect is partially postponed to March. Superimposing 2024 as a leap year, the \"strong in February and weak in March\" effect is extremely obvious, which has a short-term boost effect on exports. Exports from January to February (denominated in US dollars) increased by 7.1% year-on-year, which was significantly higher than the growth rate of the previous month. We used the \"Huajin Macro-Leap Year + Spring Festival Export Adjustment Model\" to eliminate the above disturbance factors, and the year-on-year growth rate of exports from January to February was It was 1.8%, slightly lower than 0.5 percentage points in December 2023. Exports of key categories of goods show three logics of ebb and flow: exports of mid-range goods that have not been affected by adverse external policies have improved, exports of chips and consumer electronics have stabilized and improved, and exports of automobiles and parts have begun to cool down. Judging from the performance of key export commodity categories, excluding leap year Spring Festival effects and base changes (exports from January to February 2023 were also disturbed by the epidemic): 1) Exports of mid-range consumer goods and intermediate goods such as ceramics, steel, aluminum, furniture and lamps The performance is relatively good. These mid-range products are currently not affected by the adverse external trade environment. Since they are not cutting-edge technology products, they are unlikely to be restricted in the future. 2) The overall performance of exports of integrated circuits and consumer electronics is stable and improving. As the areas most directly affected by the US \"decoupling and link breaking\" policy, it continues to show bottom resilience supported by the domestic industrial chain. 3) Exports of automobiles and auto parts have begun to cool down. This category, including new energy vehicles, has not yet been directly affected by substantial external trade restrictive measures. However, the recent trade policy environment of the United States and the European Union has had a negative impact on China’s exports. The friendliness of imported new energy vehicles has declined rapidly, and they may face greater downward pressure in the future. Driven by the leap year Spring Festival effect and the strong growth of intermediate goods in processing trade, the import growth rate has also rebounded significantly. The cumulative imports (denominated in US dollars) from January to February increased by 3.3 percentage points to 3.5% compared with December 2023. In addition to being boosted to a certain extent by the leap year Spring Festival effect, the import of intermediate goods in processing trade grew strongly. The U.S. policy of containing China\\'s cutting-edge technology industry chain is spreading from the semiconductor electronics industry chain to Europe and the new energy vehicle field. The seemingly high export growth at the beginning of the year is actually mainly disturbed by the leap year Spring Festival effect. The severe external trade and investment policy environment has made We have decided to slightly lower the forecast for the annual export growth rate. The full-year economic growth target requires domestic investment and consumption to consolidate the endogenous driving force of the general cycle in order to effectively achieve it. Since the beginning of the year and entering an election year, the U.S. government has made more dangerous attempts on the road of \"containing\" China\\'s advanced industrial chain policy. After restricting the export of cutting-edge semiconductor chips to relevant Chinese companies and imposing unreasonable restrictions on industrial chain cooperation, The Biden administration has once again proposed restrictive measures on the import of new energy vehicles from China. At the same time, the European Union has also recently announced that it will conduct customs registration of pure electric vehicles imported from China. \"Retroactive tariffs\" may be imposed after the anti-subsidy investigation is completed. These latest complications in the external environment may make the annual growth trend of automobile exports, which has begun to cool down, lower than our previous expectations, and may spread to related fields such as batteries where my country has obvious advantages. We have slightly revised down our 2024 export (USD-denominated) year-on-year growth forecast by 2 percentage points to about 0%. Net exports are expected to drag down the year-on-year real GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage points. This means that the achievement of the annual economic growth target needs to rely more on the improvement of the interactive relationship between domestic consumption and investment and the consolidation of the endogenous driving force of the domestic general cycle. Risk warning: There is a risk of external demand cooling faster than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('ae91a726-1e5a-5a58-8cc8-85a64f6c36b2'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8535415828227997, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '678UEHPPMVG4K70P0BTO976R3JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:00 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '678UEHPPMVG4K70P0BTO976R3JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('623a81f7-07dc-5c6f-a84e-f7dd357d78ce'), 'title': 'Comments on import and export data from January to February 2024: The scale of import and export hit a new high, and foreign trade got off to a good start', 'author': 'Fu Yang , Liu Qian', 'orgName': '中航证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000197', 'orgSName': '中航证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-07', 'encodeUrl': 'd5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q3iKOABWjKm0HcQn5b84xQw=', 'researcher': '符旸,刘倩', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177393', '11000424332'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=d5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q3iKOABWjKm0HcQn5b84xQw=', 'site': 'AVIC Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中航证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625983515_1.pdf?1709891787000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625983515_1.pdf?1709891787000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on import and export data from January to February 2024: The scale of import and export hit a new high, and foreign trade got off to a good start', 'originalAuthor': '符旸,刘倩', 'originalContent': '1-2月进出口规模创新高，外贸开局良好据海关统计，以美元计价，中国1-2月出口累计同比+7.1%，同比增速较2023年12月上行4.8PCTS;进口累计同比+3.5%，同比增速较2023年12月上行3.1PCTS。2024年1-2月贸易顺差录得1251.6亿美元，较去年同期增长20.5%。1-2月货物进出口总值9308.6亿美元，与去年同期增长5.5%，进出口规模创历史同期新高，外贸实现良好开局。以各项目出口累计金额减去去年同期出口累计金额之差比上去年同期的出口累计总额衡量各项目对出口同比增速的拉动作用，分产品类别看，以美元计价，2024年前两个月有21个品类对出口拉动呈正向作用，大部分品类的表现较去年12月有所改善。机电产品表现突出，1-2月该品类对总体拉动出口同比增速达3.63%，较去年12月的累计同比增速上行5.73PCTS.据海关数据，机电产品占出口比重近6成，其中自动数据处理设备、集成电路和汽车出口增长。以人民币计价，自动数据处理设备及其零部件1954.5亿元，增长7.3%;集成电路1607.1亿元，增长28.6%;汽车1118.9亿元，增长15.8%。从量价角度来看，由于去年低基数影响，各出口品类的出口数量均有大幅上涨，带动本月出口同比大幅改善。从出口目的地来看，按美元计价，1-2月东盟仍是我国第一大贸易伙伴，对东盟出口总额占了总金额的15.7%；其次为欧盟（14.8%）和美国（13.9%），三者合计出口份额44.4%，占据我国出口的“半壁江山”。从拉动力角度，1-2月我国对拉丁美洲（1.33%）、中国香港（0.905%）、印度（0.21%)、非洲（0.78%）等18个对象的出口金额同比拉动均呈正向作用。与去年1-12月的累计增速相比，2024年开年两个月对大部分出口对象的出口均呈现改善。进口同比增速改善幅度不及出口。从产品量价来看，铁矿砂、原油、煤和天然气等主要大宗商品进口量增加，27类进口产品中有14类进口量同比增加，与此同时仅有6个品类的产品价格同比上涨。1-2月进口同比增速的上升主要是数量改善的，这表明我国内需有企稳改善的迹象。外贸韧性持续显现，但年内出口仍面临较强不确定性2024年开年两个月，我国进出口规模仍然延续了去年四季度以来的向好趋势，继去年11月同比增速回到正区间之后，同比改善幅度进一步扩大。前两个月进出口货物规模和贸易差额累计值均创新高，显示我国出口在全产业链和结构品质改善带动下具有韧性。', 'content': 'The scale of import and export from January to February reached a new high, and foreign trade got off to a good start. According to customs statistics, in US dollars, China\\'s exports from January to February totaled +7.1% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate was 4.8 PCTS higher than that in December 2023; the cumulative imports +3.5% year-on-year %, the year-on-year growth rate is 3.1 PCTS higher than that in December 2023. The trade surplus from January to February 2024 was US$125.16 billion, an increase of 20.5% compared with the same period last year. The total import and export value of goods from January to February was US$930.86 billion, an increase of 5.5% over the same period last year. The scale of import and export hit a record high for the same period in history, and foreign trade achieved a good start. The difference between the cumulative export amount of each item minus the cumulative export amount in the same period last year is compared with the cumulative export amount in the same period last year to measure the driving effect of each item on the year-on-year export growth. Looking at product categories, in U.S. dollars, the first two months of 2024 There are 21 categories that have a positive effect on exports, and the performance of most categories has improved compared with December last year. Mechanical and electrical products performed outstandingly. From January to February, this category contributed to the overall year-on-year export growth of 3.63%, which was 5.73 PCTS higher than the cumulative year-on-year growth in December last year. According to customs data, mechanical and electrical products accounted for nearly 60% of exports, among which automatic Exports of data processing equipment, integrated circuits and automobiles grew. In RMB, automatic data processing equipment and its parts were 195.45 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3%; integrated circuits were 160.71 billion yuan, an increase of 28.6%; automobiles were 111.89 billion yuan, an increase of 15.8%. From the perspective of volume and price, due to the impact of the low base last year, the export quantity of each export category has increased significantly, leading to a significant year-on-year improvement in exports this month. From the perspective of export destinations, in terms of US dollars, ASEAN was still my country\\'s largest trading partner from January to February, with total exports to ASEAN accounting for 15.7% of the total; followed by the EU (14.8%) and the United States (13.9%). , the total export share of the three is 44.4%, accounting for \"half of my country\\'s exports\". From the perspective of driving force, from January to February, my country\\'s export value to 18 targets including Latin America (1.33%), Hong Kong (0.905%), India (0.21%), and Africa (0.78%) showed a positive year-on-year boost. Compared with the cumulative growth rate from January to December last year, exports to most export objects showed improvement in the first two months of 2024. The year-on-year growth rate of imports improved less than that of exports. From the perspective of product volume and price, the import volume of major commodities such as iron ore, crude oil, coal and natural gas increased. The import volume of 14 of the 27 categories of imported products increased year-on-year. At the same time, the product prices of only 6 categories increased year-on-year. . The increase in the year-on-year growth rate of imports from January to February was mainly due to improvement in quantity, which shows that my country\\'s domestic demand is showing signs of stabilization and improvement. The resilience of foreign trade continues to show, but exports during the year still face strong uncertainty. In the first two months of 2024, my country\\'s import and export scale still continued the upward trend since the fourth quarter of last year, and the year-on-year growth rate returned to the positive range after November last year. Since then, the year-on-year improvement has further expanded. In the first two months, the scale of import and export goods and the cumulative value of trade balance hit new highs, showing that my country\\'s exports are resilient driven by improvements in the entire industrial chain and structural quality.', 'authorid': UUID('766fb84a-eba6-512f-85dc-43692cdedc73'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8749261796474457, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '9HEPJDKDEBVBNH7KI0LQDF93SFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:06 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '9HEPJDKDEBVBNH7KI0LQDF93SFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('94109ed3-9563-5799-bfc3-25013aaadbf2'), 'title': 'U.S. Election Situation Tracking: Positions and Policy Impacts of “Capitol Hill Stock Gods”', 'author': 'Zhang Jun, Gao Ming, Xu Dongshi', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-07', 'encodeUrl': 'd5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6QxtImNHbjZ73LJn/vDkx/OA=', 'researcher': '章俊,高明,许冬石', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000262937', '11000185520'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=d5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6QxtImNHbjZ73LJn/vDkx/OA=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625965056_1.pdf?1709847616000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625965056_1.pdf?1709847616000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. Election Situation Tracking: Positions and Policy Impacts of “Capitol Hill Stock Gods”', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,高明,许冬石', 'originalContent': '核心观点：一、“超级星期二”结果：本次“超级星期二”基本落幕，特朗普和拜登分别确立了自身在党内的绝对优势，两人将在11月份重演选举对决。特朗普大比例胜于唯一竞争对手黑利，后黑利宣布退选。目前特朗普赢得1031张党内选举人票，距离1251张的共和党提名门槛一步之遥，预计在后续州初选中将比较容易得到足够票数。拜登取得了1527张党内选举人票，距离1969张民主党提名门槛仅差442票。不过需要注意的是，在州选票上选择“未承诺”来拒绝给拜登投票的运动在明尼苏达州广泛蔓延，20%的选民，即近34,000张选票选择了该选项，以抗议拜登在巴以冲突上的政策。因此拜登如何安抚选民，并有效防止“未承诺”运动扩大化将成为未来的政策焦点。二、最高法院裁清扫清特朗普提名问题：美国时间3月4日，美国联邦最高法院裁决各州不得取消特朗普的候选资格。此前，科罗拉多州最高法院判决，由于特朗普“参与了国会山叛乱”，因此引用美国宪法第14修正案第3条，剥夺特朗普在科罗拉多州总统候选人身份。本次联邦最高法院的判决避免了特朗普在全美州级层面被剥夺选举资格的可能。后续来看，虽然特朗普依然面临91项刑事罪名指控和数十起民事案件，但至少可以继续参选，且一旦当选后，特朗普可以特赦自己在联邦政府层面的罪名。不过在州层面的刑事罪名一旦坐实，依然有入狱风险，且无法自我特赦，因此仍有机会引发美国宪政危机。三、从股票持仓看两党产业偏好：“国会山股神”们指的是一些美国国会议员及其亲属，因其在股市中的超强投资表现而得名。例如美国国会众议院前议长南希·佩洛西的丈夫保罗·佩洛西，他的投资回报率在2021年达到了56%。但佩洛西家族的投资年回报率在国会山也只是排第九位。排名第一的民主党议员布莱恩·希金斯的年回报率高达238%。鉴于议员们的高回报，有两只ETF“NANC”和“KRUZ”分别跟踪民主党和共和党议员的持仓情况。自2023年2月初推出以来，民主党投资截至目前上涨29%，而共和党投资回报率仅为14.95%。两党ETF收益分化的主要原因是民主党对科技股，尤其是AI相关的股票进行了重点投资，科技板块占比高达37.49%，其次是周期消费品（16.28%）、通信（12.58%）以及金融服务（8.86%）。共和党则专注于传统制造业和能源公司，虽然第一大板块也为科技，但占比仅有22.77%，显著低于民主党ETF的投资占比。其次为工业（15.07%）和能源（12.41%）。可见，两党投资标的和产业的分化显著，因此一旦特朗普当选，很可能利好传统能源和工业，而对目前拜登所推进的环境保护和新能源产业会造成冲击。四、未来看点：拜登定于美国时间本周四（3月7日）发表国情咨文演讲。下周二（3月12日），佐治亚州、密西西比州和华盛顿州将举行初选，夏威夷将举行共和党党团会议。共和党和民主党的全国代表大会将分别于7月15至18日、8月19至22日举行。我们也将持续跟进选情的进展和对资本市场的影响。风险提示1.海外经济衰退的风险2.地缘政治的风险3.民调误差的风险4.选举超预期的风险', 'content': 'Core viewpoints: 1. \"Super Tuesday\" results: This \"Super Tuesday\" has basically come to an end. Trump and Biden have each established their absolute advantages within the party. The two will rematch in the election showdown in November. Trump beat his only rival Haley by a large margin, and Haley announced her withdrawal from the race. Trump currently has won 1,031 party electoral votes, one step away from the 1,251 Republican nomination threshold. It is expected that it will be easier to get enough votes in subsequent state primaries. Biden received 1,527 electoral votes within the party, only 442 votes short of the 1,969 Democratic nomination threshold. However, it should be noted that the movement to refuse to vote for Biden by selecting \"uncommitted\" on the state ballot has spread widely in Minnesota. 20% of voters, or nearly 34,000 votes, selected this option to protest Biden\\'s election in Palestine. To conflict on the policy. Therefore, how Biden appeases voters and effectively prevents the expansion of the \"uncommitted\" movement will become a policy focus in the future. 2. The Supreme Court ruled to clear Trump’s nomination: On March 4, U.S. time, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states may not cancel Trump’s candidacy. Previously, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that because Trump \"participated in the insurrection on Capitol Hill,\" Article 3 of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution was cited to deprive Trump of his status as a presidential candidate in Colorado. This federal Supreme Court decision prevents Trump from being disqualified from election at the state level across the United States. In the future, although Trump still faces 91 criminal charges and dozens of civil cases, he can at least continue to run for office, and once elected, Trump can pardon his crimes at the federal level. However, once criminal charges at the state level are confirmed, there is still a risk of imprisonment, and self-pardon is not possible, so there is still a chance of triggering a constitutional crisis in the United States. 3. Look at the industry preferences of the two parties from the perspective of stock holdings: \"Capitol Hill Stock Gods\" refer to some U.S. Congressmen and their relatives, so named for their strong investment performance in the stock market. For example, Paul Pelosi, the husband of former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, has a return on investment of 56% in 2021. But the Pelosi family’s annual return on investment only ranks ninth on Capitol Hill. The top-ranked Democratic congressman, Brian Higgins, had an annual return of 238%. In view of the high returns of lawmakers, there are two ETFs \"NANC\" and \"KRUZ\" that track the holdings of Democratic and Republican lawmakers respectively. Since its launch in early February 2023, Democratic investments are up 29% so far, while Republican investments have returned just 14.95%. The main reason for the divergence of ETF returns between the two parties is that the Democratic Party has focused on investing in technology stocks, especially AI-related stocks. The technology sector accounts for as much as 37.49%, followed by cyclical consumer goods (16.28%), communications (12.58%) and financial services. (8.86%). The Republican Party focuses on traditional manufacturing and energy companies. Although the largest sector is technology, it only accounts for 22.77%, which is significantly lower than the investment proportion of Democratic ETFs. Followed by industry (15.07%) and energy (12.41%). It can be seen that the investment targets and industries of the two parties are significantly different. Therefore, once Trump is elected, it is likely to benefit traditional energy and industry, but will have an impact on the environmental protection and new energy industries currently promoted by Biden. 4. Future highlights: Biden is scheduled to deliver the State of the Union address on Thursday (March 7), U.S. time. Next Tuesday (March 12), Georgia, Mississippi and Washington state will hold primaries, and Hawaii will hold the Republican caucus. The Republican and Democratic National Conventions will be held from July 15 to 18 and August 19 to 22 respectively. We will also continue to follow the progress of the election and its impact on the capital market. Risk warning 1. Risk of overseas economic recession 2. Risk of geopolitics 3. Risk of polling error 4. Risk of election exceeding expectations', 'authorid': UUID('82751e64-92c8-52a1-a134-71932205eb83'), 'sentimentScore': -0.3219871073961258, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GVGIC5RF4U8MLM0JU0SFV9BJANVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:09 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GVGIC5RF4U8MLM0JU0SFV9BJANVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c0187462-13a2-5240-a7e3-12e6f24dbf00'), 'title': 'Exports to the U.S. turning positive boost foreign trade beyond expectations', 'author': 'Xu Dongshi, Lu Lei', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-07', 'encodeUrl': 'd5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q4QOrXfGaFoo8QIAda4udvc=', 'researcher': '许冬石,吕雷', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000185520', '11000443769'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=d5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q4QOrXfGaFoo8QIAda4udvc=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625965031_1.pdf?1709847508000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625965031_1.pdf?1709847508000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Exports to the U.S. turning positive boost foreign trade beyond expectations', 'originalAuthor': '许冬石,吕雷', 'originalContent': '3月7日海关总署公布2024年1-2月份进出口数据：前2个月，我国进出口总值9308.6亿美元���增长5.5%。其中，出口5280.1亿美元，增长7.1%；进口4028.5亿美元，增长3.5%；贸易顺差1251.6亿美元，扩大20.5%。海外需求部门向补库阶段过渡、海外制造业景气度边际改善、亚洲半导体产业链加速复苏提振和出口商品单价下降带来的商品竞争力提升。第一，当前美国零售商处于被动去库阶段，而批发商和制造商已进入主动补库阶段；第二，1-2月欧美英经济体制造业PMI边际改善；第三，2024年的半导体市场规模将比2023年增加13%，这将对东亚半导体产业链生产出口带来持续支撑；第四，出口商品单价下降带来商品竞争力提升，海关总署统计的17个品类中，2023年单价下降的品类有13类，从商品均价单月同比来看，降价品类的比例从2022年秋季开始上升。越印美俄对出口贡献率最高，对日韩产业链地区出口下滑。1-2月对美国出口增速回升转正，拉升出口增速0.38个百分点，成为拉动出口上行的主要贡献之一。对欧出口降幅基本稳定，欧洲经济的低景气度抑制其需求快速增长。对东盟出口增速大幅改善主要来源于对越南出口增速的高增长，1月份越南出口增速高达34%，对产业链国家日本(-9.7%)、韩国(-9.9%)出口均呈现下滑趋势。主要拉动贡献国来自越南（24.1%）、印度（+12.8%）、美国（+5%）和俄罗斯（+12.5%）。劳动密集型、机电产品出口继续上行，手机出口延续下落。（1）劳动密集型产品中所有品类商品出口累计同比均在改善，其中塑料、箱包、纺织、服装、鞋靴和玩具出口增速较2023年12月均有不同幅度上行；（2）机电产品中，通用设备、集成电路出口活力显著，家用电器、汽车零配件、汽车仍延续两位数高速增长态势；（3）前两个月手机累计同比增速延续下落至-18.2%（去年同期+2%），随着全球消费电子步入上行区间，后续我国电子类产品出口亦有望跟随迎来改善上行。外需改善支撑出口持续上行。随着全球高利率政策转向，美国逐步向全面补库存过渡，将整体上促进全球贸易的复苏回升，中国出口增速也会跟随全球贸易复苏迎来进一步改善，预计全年出口增速3.5%。进口依赖内需稳定复苏。随着今年国内财政的“适度加力”进一步显现，内需有望呈现复苏回暖的态势。此外价格因素对进口增速的贡献有望提升，对进口增速也相对乐观，预计全年进口增速2.2%。风险提示：1.国内经济增速超预期下行风险2.新质生产力相关政策出台不及预期', 'content': 'On March 7, the General Administration of Customs announced import and export data from January to February 2024: In the first two months, my country\\'s total import and export value was US$930.86 billion, an increase of 5.5%. Among them, exports were US$528.01 billion, an increase of 7.1%; imports were US$402.85 billion, an increase of 3.5%; the trade surplus was US$125.16 billion, an increase of 20.5%. The overseas demand sector has transitioned to the replenishment stage, the overseas manufacturing boom has improved marginally, the Asian semiconductor industry chain has accelerated the recovery, and the unit price of exported goods has decreased, which has improved the competitiveness of goods. First, U.S. retailers are currently in the passive destocking stage, while wholesalers and manufacturers have entered the active restocking stage; second, the marginal improvement in the manufacturing PMI of European, American and British economies from January to February; third, semiconductors in 2024 The market size will increase by 13% compared with 2023, which will provide continued support for the production and export of East Asia\\'s semiconductor industry chain; fourth, the decline in the unit price of export commodities will increase the competitiveness of commodities. Among the 17 categories analyzed by the General Administration of Customs, in 2023 There are 13 categories with unit price decreases. Judging from the average monthly price of goods year-on-year, the proportion of price-cut categories will begin to increase from the autumn of 2022. Vietnam, India, the United States, and Russia have the highest contribution to exports, while exports to Japan and South Korea\\'s industrial chain areas have declined. From January to February, the growth rate of exports to the United States rebounded and turned positive, increasing the export growth rate by 0.38 percentage points, becoming one of the main contributions to the upward trend in exports. The decline in exports to Europe is basically stable, and the low economic prosperity of Europe restrains its rapid growth in demand. The significant improvement in the growth rate of exports to ASEAN is mainly due to the high growth rate of exports to Vietnam. In January, Vietnam\\'s export growth rate was as high as 34%, and exports to industrial chain countries Japan (-9.7%) and South Korea (-9.9%) both showed decline. trend. The main contributors are Vietnam (24.1%), India (+12.8%), the United States (+5%) and Russia (+12.5%). Exports of labor-intensive and mechanical and electrical products continued to rise, while exports of mobile phones continued to decline. (1) The cumulative exports of all categories of labor-intensive products are improving year-on-year, among which the export growth rates of plastics, bags, textiles, clothing, shoes and toys have increased to varying degrees compared with December 2023; (2) Mechanical and electrical products Among them, the export vitality of general equipment and integrated circuits is remarkable, and household appliances, auto parts and automobiles continue to maintain double-digit rapid growth; (3) the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of mobile phones in the first two months continued to fall to -18.2% (+ in the same period last year 2%), as global consumer electronics enters an upward range, my country\\'s exports of electronic products are also expected to follow suit and see improvements and upward trends. Improved external demand supports the continued upward trend in exports. As the global high interest rate policy shifts, the United States gradually transitions to a comprehensive replenishment of inventories, which will overall promote the recovery of global trade. China\\'s export growth will also see further improvements following the recovery of global trade, and the annual export growth rate is expected to be 3.5%. Imports rely on the steady recovery of domestic demand. As the \"moderate boost\" of domestic finance this year further appears, domestic demand is expected to show a recovery trend. In addition, the contribution of price factors to import growth is expected to increase, and the import growth rate is relatively optimistic. The annual import growth rate is expected to be 2.2%. Risk warning: 1. Downside risk if domestic economic growth exceeds expectations 2. The introduction of policies related to new productivity is less than expected', 'authorid': UUID('470e8441-710b-59d0-89ec-ecf774931dc4'), 'sentimentScore': 0.7270882874727249, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'UCMTTCB42JIIB7Q4P5UJSJI61FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:11 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'UCMTTCB42JIIB7Q4P5UJSJI61FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5e8c3928-8bae-586d-9337-7fba390d08c2'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Research Weekly Report: Domestic manufacturing PMI fell back, U.S. PCE in line with expectations', 'author': 'Ye Bin', 'orgName': '财信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000140', 'orgSName': '财信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-07', 'encodeUrl': 'd5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Qw1zIWwQPnMllscX+JKlpCw=', 'researcher': '叶彬', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000370137'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=d5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Qw1zIWwQPnMllscX+JKlpCw=', 'site': 'Caixin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '财信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625964837_1.pdf?1709848025000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625964837_1.pdf?1709848025000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Research Weekly Report: Domestic manufacturing PMI fell back, U.S. PCE in line with expectations', 'originalAuthor': '叶彬', 'originalContent': '本周观点：国内方面，2024年2月份，国内制造业PMI为49.1%，比上月下降0.1个百分点。这表明制造业市场活跃度总体有所下降，制造业PMI略有回落。这可能是由于春节假日因素影响，制造业处于传统生产淡季，加之疫情防控平稳转段后企业员工假期返乡增多，企业生产经营受到较大影响。另外，尽管制造业PMI有所下降，但非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为51.4%和50.9%，均有所上升。这表明非制造业扩张步伐继续加快，服务业和建筑业总体延续增长态势。这可能是由于春节期间服务业明显反弹，以及非制造业领域的持续复苏和扩张。总体来看，2024年2月份我国PMI数据呈现出制造业略有回落、非制造业持续扩张的特点。这表明我国经济在保持稳定增长的同时，也在经历结构调整和转型升级的过程。未来，应继续加强政策引导和支持，推动制造业和非制造业协同发展，促进经济持续平稳健康发展。海外方面，美国商务部公布了1月核心PCE物价指数，整体符合预期。剔除了波动较大的食品和能源部分的核心PCE物价指数增长2.8%，为2021年3月以来最小增幅。但环比来看，1月核心PCE物价指数增长0.4%，创下2023年2月以来最大增幅。随着最新通胀数据缓解了市场对美国物价加速上涨的担忧，美联储年中降息���预期进一步得到巩固。同时，3月1日，美联储官员沃勒在美国货币政策论坛上提出，美联储在资产负债表上应该“买短卖长”，瞬间点燃市场风险情绪，当天美债收益率应声大跌，金价美股大涨。沃勒指出，美联储应该提高短期美债在资产负债表中的比例，并将所持MBS降至零。总体来看，短期内全球经济仍存在不确定性，全球通胀水平整体呈现企稳回落趋势，美联储降息预期升温；但中长期来看，全球通胀水平尽管逐步从高位回落并趋稳，但是仍处于较高水平；美国经济数据整体向好，美联储降息周期的开启或需要等待更长时间。国内热点：一、中共中央政治局就新能源技术与我国能源安全进行第十二次集体学习。二、中国2月官方制造业PMI为49.1。三、全国政协将围绕人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化等议题协商议政。四、李强主持召开国务院常务会议。国际热点：一、美国PCE数据“平庸”缓解市场通胀担忧。二、美联储官员提出，美联储在资产负债表上应该“买短卖长”。上周高频数据跟踪：2月26日至3月1日，上证指数上涨0.74%，收报3027.02点；沪深300指数上涨1.38%，收报3527.80点；创业板指上涨3.74%，收报1824.03点。风险提示：国内政策超预期；欧美经济衰退风险加剧。', 'content': 'This week’s view: Domestically, in February 2024, the domestic manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. This shows that the overall activity of the manufacturing market has declined, and the manufacturing PMI has fallen slightly. This may be due to the Spring Festival holiday. The manufacturing industry is in the traditional off-season for production. In addition, after the epidemic prevention and control has stabilized, more and more employees are returning home during the holidays, which has greatly affected the production and operation of enterprises. In addition, despite the decline in the manufacturing PMI, the non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 51.4% and 50.9% respectively, both rising. This shows that the pace of expansion of non-manufacturing industries continues to accelerate, and the service industry and construction industry generally continue to grow. This may be due to the significant rebound in the service industry during the Spring Festival and the continued recovery and expansion of the non-manufacturing sector. Overall, my country\\'s PMI data in February 2024 showed a slight decline in the manufacturing industry and continued expansion of the non-manufacturing industry. This shows that while my country\\'s economy maintains stable growth, it is also undergoing a process of structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading. In the future, we should continue to strengthen policy guidance and support, promote the coordinated development of manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries, and promote sustained, stable and healthy economic development. Overseas, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the core PCE price index for January, which was generally in line with expectations. The core PCE price index, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, increased by 2.8%, the smallest increase since March 2021. But on a month-on-month basis, the core PCE price index increased by 0.4% in January, the largest increase since February 2023. Expectations for a mid-year interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve were further solidified as the latest inflation data eased market concerns about accelerating price increases in the United States. At the same time, on March 1, Federal Reserve official Waller proposed at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum that the Federal Reserve should \"buy short and sell long\" on the balance sheet, which instantly ignited market risk sentiment. U.S. bond yields fell sharply that day, and gold prices in U.S. stocks Big rise. Waller pointed out that the Fed should increase the proportion of short-term U.S. debt in its balance sheet and reduce its holdings of MBS to zero. Overall, there are still uncertainties in the global economy in the short term, global inflation levels have shown a stabilizing and declining trend, and expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have increased. However, in the medium to long term, although global inflation levels have gradually fallen from highs and stabilized, they are still at a relatively high level. High level; U.S. economic data are generally improving, and the start of the Fed\\'s interest rate cutting cycle may take longer. Domestic hot topics: 1. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee conducted the 12th collective study on new energy technology and my country’s energy security. 2. China’s official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.1. 3. The National Committee of the Chinese People\\'s Political Consultative Conference will negotiate and discuss issues such as high-quality population development and supporting Chinese-style modernization. 4. Li Qiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council. International hot spots: 1. The “mediocre” US PCE data eased market inflation concerns. 2. Fed officials proposed that the Fed should \"buy short and sell long\" on its balance sheet. High-frequency data tracking last week: From February 26 to March 1, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.74% to close at 3027.02 points; the CSI 300 Index rose 1.38% to close at 3527.80 points; the ChiNext Index rose 3.74% to close at 1824.03 points. Risk warning: Domestic policies have exceeded expectations; the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States has intensified.', 'authorid': UUID('4fda87f7-a5e2-53ab-b6c5-0b61d8c5eaae'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9607784571126103, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '4DFQ2GC19U6JHH2CNJUUMJE3KRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:14 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '4DFQ2GC19U6JHH2CNJUUMJE3KRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('77935897-650f-52ab-94fa-f5e67c3af18f'), 'title': 'The second series of comments on the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Three major concerns about active finance after the \"Two Sessions\"', 'author': 'Yuan Haixia, Wang Yuanhui, Yan Yanming', 'orgName': '中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80002154', 'orgSName': '中诚信国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-07', 'encodeUrl': 'd5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q/0Mixj4aE3ChVcKO9M6TTg=', 'researcher': '袁海霞,汪苑晖,闫彦明', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000241949', '11000270236', '11000369532'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=d5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q/0Mixj4aE3ChVcKO9M6TTg=', 'site': 'China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中诚信国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625964671_1.pdf?1709845823000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625964671_1.pdf?1709845823000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The second series of comments on the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": Three major concerns about active finance after the \"Two Sessions\"', 'originalAuthor': '袁海霞,汪苑晖,闫彦明', 'originalContent': '2024年3月5日，第十四届全国人民代表大会第二次会议在北京开幕，国务院总理李强作2023年《政府工作报告》。《政府工作报告》将今年GDP增速预期目标设定为5%左右，并强调坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破，强化宏观政策逆周期和跨周期调节，加强政策工具创新和协调配合。其中，积极的财政政策要适度加力提质增效，今年赤字率拟按3%安排、与去年持平，赤字规模4.06万亿、较去年增加0.18万亿，地方新增专项债安排3.9万亿元、较去年增加0.1万亿，同时，今年开始将连续几年发行超长期特别国贵、今年先发1万亿。此外，《政府工作报告》还提出一般公共预算支持规模比上年增加1.1万亿，大力优化支出结构，落实结构性减税降费政策，合理扩大地方政府专项债券投向领域和用作资本金范围等。结合《政府工作报告》和《关于2023年中央和地方预算执行情况与2024年中央和地方预算草案的报告》，我们认为，2024年积极财政政策有如下三大看点：一、赤字率下调但积极财政基调未改，推动中央加杠杆优化债务结构综合考虑发展需要及财政可持续后，今年狭义赤字率虽大幅低于去年增发万亿国债后的3.8%水平，但积极财政基调未改，通过优化政策工具组合、小幅提升专项债限额、增发超长期特别国债等继续发力，根据中诚信国际测算，今年广义赤字规模将较去年考虑万亿增发国债后的8.68万亿增加0.28万亿至8.96万亿，广义赤字率为6.6%，虽小幅低于去年约0.2个百分点，但依然是近年来较高水平积极财政依然积极。', 'content': 'On March 5, 2024, the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress opened in Beijing, and Premier Li Qiang delivered the 2023 \"Government Work Report\". The \"Government Work Report\" sets the expected GDP growth target for this year at around 5%, and emphasizes the need to make progress while maintaining stability, promote stability through advancement, establish first and then break, strengthen counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, and strengthen policy tools. Innovation and coordination. Among them, the proactive fiscal policy should be appropriately intensified to improve quality and efficiency. This year\\'s deficit rate is planned to be arranged at 3%, the same as last year. The deficit scale is 4.06 trillion, an increase of 0.18 trillion from last year. Local new special debt arrangements are 3.9 trillion. Yuan, an increase of 0.1 trillion compared with last year. At the same time, super-long-term special national funds will be issued for several consecutive years starting from this year, with 1 trillion being issued first this year. In addition, the \"Government Work Report\" also proposes to increase the scale of general public budget support by 1.1 trillion compared with the previous year, vigorously optimize the expenditure structure, implement structural tax reduction and fee reduction policies, and reasonably expand the investment areas of local government special bonds and the scope of capital funds wait. Combining the \"Government Work Report\" and the \"Report on the Implementation of the Central and Local Budgets in 2023 and the Draft Central and Local Budgets in 2024\", we believe that the proactive fiscal policy in 2024 has the following three major highlights: 1. The deficit rate will be reduced but The positive fiscal tone has not changed, pushing the central government to increase leverage and optimize the debt structure. After comprehensively considering development needs and fiscal sustainability, although this year\\'s narrow deficit rate is significantly lower than the 3.8% level after the issuance of trillions of treasury bonds last year, the positive fiscal tone has not changed, passed Optimizing the mix of policy tools, slightly increasing the limit of special debt, and issuance of additional ultra-long-term special treasury bonds continue to make efforts. According to CCXI’s calculations, the scale of the general deficit this year will increase by 0.28 trillion to 8.96 billion from last year’s 8.68 trillion after considering the issuance of trillions of additional treasury bonds. trillion, the broad-based deficit rate is 6.6%. Although it is slightly lower than last year by about 0.2 percentage points, it is still a relatively high level in recent years. The fiscal policy is still active.', 'authorid': UUID('d22bb785-f541-5718-8373-c3ee073a8f45'), 'sentimentScore': 0.4179060496389866, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '85D7FG174P4PKL22C4Q0VBONDFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '85D7FG174P4PKL22C4Q0VBONDFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e96d3c69-2012-5e78-8c8c-8c34b13c6102'), 'title': 'January-February Import and Export Data Express', 'author': 'Jin Shunrouzi', 'orgName': '国投安信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066669', 'orgSName': '国投安信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-07', 'encodeUrl': 'd5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6QxeOA4dbPxlgtZ7Fm7Y5UOE=', 'researcher': '靳顺柔子', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245957'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=d5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6QxeOA4dbPxlgtZ7Fm7Y5UOE=', 'site': 'SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投安信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625949461_1.pdf?1709840514000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625949461_1.pdf?1709840514000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'January-February Import and Export Data Express', 'originalAuthor': '靳顺柔子', 'originalContent': '按美元计价，我国进出口总值9308.6亿美元，增长5.5%。其中，出口5280.1亿美元，增长7.1%；进口4028.5亿美元，增长3.5%；贸易顺差1251.6亿美元，扩大20.5%。出口方面，1-2月出口数据大幅超出1.9%d的预期，实现了头两个月的开门红。从需求来看，今年头两个月，海外制造业整体处于温和恢复过程中，1、2月发达经济体制造业PMI分别为48.9%、49.3%（2023年12月为47.0%），1、2月中采PMI新出口订单分别为47.2%、46.3%（2023年12月为45.8%），均边际有所改善。从主要出口的地区来看，1-2月，我国前三大出口市场分别是东盟、欧盟、美国。其中，对东盟出口较上年同期增长6.0%，对欧盟出口下降1.3%，对美出口上涨5.0%。从主要产品来看，船舶类产品出口大幅增长180.6%，排名增长率第一,其他主要有竞争力的出口品类也持续走强，显示出良好的势头。进口方面，虽然1-2月内需依然偏弱，但由于去年同期基数较低，叠加进口运价走强，进口同比增速较去年12月小幅上行。当前国内消费整体温和，房地产行业持续处于调整状态，我国经济修复动能仍然偏弱，短期内进口需求或仍受抑制。', 'content': \"In US dollars, my country’s total import and export value was US$930.86 billion, an increase of 5.5%. Among them, exports were US$528.01 billion, an increase of 7.1%; imports were US$402.85 billion, an increase of 3.5%; the trade surplus was US$125.16 billion, an increase of 20.5%. In terms of exports, the export data from January to February significantly exceeded expectations of 1.9%d, achieving a good start in the first two months. From the perspective of demand, in the first two months of this year, overseas manufacturing as a whole was in the process of moderate recovery. In January and February, the manufacturing PMI of advanced economies was 48.9% and 49.3% respectively (47.0% in December 2023). In February, new export orders in China's purchasing PMI were 47.2% and 46.3% respectively (45.8% in December 2023), with both margins improving. From the perspective of main export regions, from January to February, my country's top three export markets were ASEAN, the European Union, and the United States. Among them, exports to ASEAN increased by 6.0% compared with the same period last year, exports to the EU decreased by 1.3%, and exports to the United States increased by 5.0%. From the perspective of major products, exports of shipbuilding products increased significantly by 180.6%, ranking first in growth rate. Other major competitive export categories also continued to strengthen, showing good momentum. In terms of imports, although domestic demand remained weak in January and February, due to the low base in the same period last year and the strengthening of import freight rates, the year-on-year growth rate of imports increased slightly compared with December last year. At present, domestic consumption is generally moderate, the real estate industry continues to be in a state of adjustment, my country's economic recovery momentum is still weak, and import demand may still be suppressed in the short term.\", 'authorid': UUID('40e65a3c-99e1-55f2-857c-bc9dfcf8c17c'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9341776221990585, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '21LG23JO48QNDFTLHI15QHC6CNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:19 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '21LG23JO48QNDFTLHI15QHC6CNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('44713bd5-29f4-5f34-ac4e-c9fffe046cc0'), 'title': 'Import and export data review event points from January to February 2024', 'author': 'Luo Yunfeng, Niu Yi', 'orgName': '华金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000134', 'orgSName': '华金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-07', 'encodeUrl': 'd5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q8DCkg5wv7c+mo3pTkbjDJ4=', 'researcher': '罗云峰,牛逸', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000218293', '11000440547'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=d5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q8DCkg5wv7c+mo3pTkbjDJ4=', 'site': 'Huajin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625941150_1.pdf?1709838289000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625941150_1.pdf?1709838289000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Import and export data review event points from January to February 2024', 'originalAuthor': '罗云峰,牛逸', 'originalContent': '投资要点以美元计价，2024年1-2月出口金额同比增长7.1%，高于万得一致预期2.7%，前值为2.3%（2023年12月同比）；1-2月进口金额同比增长3.5%，高于万得一致预期0.3%，前值为0.2%。出口方面分量价来看，1-2月主要出口商品受数量影响更大，价格对出口有所拖累。南华综合指数与出口价格指数(HS2)相关性较强，2024年1月、2月南华综合指数连续下跌。PMI新出口订单与出口数量同比指数(HS2)相关性较强，1月、2月PMI新出口订单分别为47.20、46.30，较12月45.80有所恢复。分地区看，1-2月对主要生产国增速变动不一：对韩出口减少6.8pct至-9.9%，对日本减少2.4pct至-9.7%，对东盟出口增加12.1pct至6.0%大幅回正，其中对越南、马来西亚、泰国、新加坡、印度尼西亚、菲律宾分别增加19.8pct、4.2pct、12.1pct、3.5pct、22.6pct、8.6pct至24.1%、4.8%、8.2%、-17.2%、18.8%、-11.9%。对主要消费品国家或地区出口增速回正：对美出口增加11.9pct至5.0%，对欧盟增加0.6pct至-1.3%，对英国下降2.9pct至4.9%，对俄罗斯下降9.1pct至12.5%。2024年1-2月出口迎来开门红，仅略低于2022年同期。重点出口产品较12月量价齐升。劳密产品出口回升，服装、箱包、纺织品、鞋靴、家具、玩具出口金额同比增速增加，整体量价齐升。电子产品中，手机同比增速下降17.89pct至-18.24%，景气度尚处低位。家用电器继续增长6.1pct至20.81%。集成电路增长21.68pct至24.27%。汽车出口增速回落39.41pct至12.56%，量增价减。船舶则再次大增144.58pct至173.13%，持续维持高增速。运价方面，受1月红海危机继续发酵叠加2月春节影响，各航线集装箱运价指数在1月大幅上涨后，节后恢复略显缓慢。欧洲、地中海航线1月涨幅达85.49%、68.95%。运价��体较2022年和2023年同期表现稳步向好。2024年1-2月进口超预期，继12月回正后进一步改善。分商品看，粮食、大豆同比增速继续下行至-14.86%、-22.20%，受数量影响更大。大宗商品进口增速回落，铁矿砂、铜矿砂、煤及褐煤同比增速均呈现量价齐减，原油量价齐升，成品油价增量减，天然气量增价减。机电产品回升5.47pct至7.71%，自动数据处理设备及其零部件、二极管及类似半导体器件、集成电路整体量价齐升，进口金额分别大增39.95pct、22.90pct、18.65pct至67.31%、5.02%、15.27%。1-2月能源、工业原材料进口情况与PMI指数仍处荣枯线之下相互印证，或显示生产端恢复基础尚不牢固。2024年1月、2月，美国制造业PMI分别为49.10、47.80，欧元区为46.60、46.50，日本为48.00、47.20，韩国为51.20、50.70，均在2月有所回落。全球经济整体仍处恢复进程，但恢复力度有所减弱。整体而言，受基数效应影响，1月物量数据表现较为强劲、2月则较为疲弱，本轮下行周期目前判断基本在4个月左右（2023年12月-2024年3月）。2024年预计资产端实际GDP增速平稳运行，在4-5%之间窄幅波动。我们维持出口增速边际企稳，全年实现小幅增长的判断不变。风险提示：经济失速下滑、政策超预期宽松', 'content': \"Investment points are calculated in US dollars. The export value from January to February 2024 increased by 7.1% year-on-year, which was higher than Wind's consensus expectation of 2.7%. The previous value was 2.3% (year-on-year in December 2023); the import value from January to February increased by 3.5% year-on-year. %, higher than Wind’s consensus estimate of 0.3% and the previous value of 0.2%. In terms of export volume and price, the main export commodities from January to February were more affected by quantity, and prices were a drag on exports. The Nanhua Composite Index has a strong correlation with the export price index (HS2). In January and February 2024, the Nanhua Composite Index fell continuously. PMI new export orders have a strong correlation with the export quantity year-on-year index (HS2). PMI new export orders in January and February were 47.20 and 46.30 respectively, recovering from 45.80 in December. In terms of regions, the growth rates of major producing countries varied from January to February: exports to South Korea decreased by 6.8pct to -9.9%, exports to Japan decreased by 2.4pct to -9.7%, and exports to ASEAN increased by 12.1pct to 6.0%. Positive, of which Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines increased by 19.8pct, 4.2pct, 12.1pct, 3.5pct, 22.6pct, and 8.6pct respectively to 24.1%, 4.8%, 8.2%, -17.2%, and 18.8%. , -11.9%. The growth rate of exports to major consumer goods countries or regions returned to positive levels: exports to the United States increased by 11.9pct to 5.0%, exports to the EU increased by 0.6pct to -1.3%, exports to the UK fell by 2.9pct to 4.9%, and exports to Russia fell by 9.1pct to 12.5%. Exports from January to February 2024 are off to a good start, only slightly lower than the same period in 2022. The volume and price of key export products increased compared with December. The export of Laomi products rebounded, with the export value of clothing, bags, textiles, shoes, furniture, and toys increasing year-on-year, and the overall volume and price rising. Among electronic products, the year-on-year growth rate of mobile phones dropped by 17.89pct to -18.24%, and the prosperity is still at a low level. Household appliances continued to grow by 6.1pct to 20.81%. Integrated circuits increased by 21.68pct to 24.27%. The growth rate of automobile exports dropped by 39.41pct to 12.56%, with volume increasing and price decreasing. The number of ships increased sharply again by 144.58pct to 173.13%, continuing to maintain a high growth rate. In terms of freight rates, due to the continued fermentation of the Red Sea crisis in January and the impact of the Spring Festival in February, the container freight index of various routes rose sharply in January, and the post-holiday recovery was slightly slow. European and Mediterranean routes increased by 85.49% and 68.95% in January. The overall freight rate performance is steadily improving compared with the same period in 2022 and 2023. Imports from January to February 2024 exceeded expectations and improved further after returning to positive levels in December. In terms of commodities, the year-on-year growth rates of grain and soybeans continued to decline to -14.86% and -22.20%, which were more affected by quantity. The growth rate of bulk commodity imports has slowed down. The year-on-year growth rates of iron ore, copper ore, coal and lignite have all shown a decrease in volume and price. The volume and price of crude oil have both increased. The increase in the price of refined oil has decreased, and the increase in natural gas has decreased in price. Mechanical and electrical products rebounded by 5.47pct to 7.71%. Automatic data processing equipment and its components, diodes and similar semiconductor devices, and integrated circuits increased in overall volume and price. The import value increased significantly by 39.95pct, 22.90pct, and 18.65pct to 67.31% and 5.02 respectively. %, 15.27%. The import situation of energy and industrial raw materials from January to February and the PMI index are still below the boom and bust line, which mutually confirms each other, which may indicate that the foundation for the recovery of the production side is not yet solid. In January and February 2024, the U.S. manufacturing PMI was 49.10 and 47.80 respectively, the euro zone was 46.60 and 46.50, Japan was 48.00 and 47.20, and South Korea was 51.20 and 50.70. They all fell back in February. The global economy as a whole is still in the process of recovery, but the intensity of recovery has weakened. Overall, due to the base effect, the volume data in January was relatively strong and February was relatively weak. The current downward cycle is currently estimated to be around 4 months (December 2023-March 2024). In 2024, the real GDP growth rate on the asset side is expected to run smoothly, fluctuating within a narrow range of 4-5%. We maintain that export growth has been marginally stable, and our judgment of achieving slight growth throughout the year remains unchanged. Risk warning: The economy stalls and declines, and policies are looser than expected\", 'authorid': UUID('a7eff2c8-f33d-545c-a413-5aeee64c1096'), 'sentimentScore': 0.46667538583278656, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'SVJKVJVUGIUOTOPJG1UPFS3GFBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:22 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'SVJKVJVUGIUOTOPJG1UPFS3GFBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('26882b90-3f26-5137-ad42-ad636084e7b8'), 'title': 'Comments on PMI data in September: The total PMI reading increased slightly, but most sub-items still contracted', 'author': '', 'orgName': '丝路海洋(北京)科技有限公司', 'orgCode': '81687161', 'orgSName': '丝路海洋(北京)科技', 'publishDate': '2024-03-07', 'encodeUrl': 'd5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q4C5Gy3vSRefYjfBdrXvTIY=', 'researcher': '', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': '', 'count': 1, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=d5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q4C5Gy3vSRefYjfBdrXvTIY=', 'site': 'Silk Road Ocean (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '丝路海洋(北京)科技', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625932628_1.pdf?1709826314000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625932628_1.pdf?1709826314000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on PMI data in September: The total PMI reading increased slightly, but most sub-items still contracted', 'originalAuthor': '', 'originalContent': '【数据】中国 9 月官方制造业 PMI 为 50.1， 前值 49.4。中国 9 月官方非制造业 PMI 为 50.6， 前值 52.6。【 点评】8 月国内疫情散点式发酵， 且极端天气给生产、 生活带来较大影响， 9 月基本面略有改善， 制造业 PMI 回升 0.4 个百分点， 重新站上荣枯线。 不同规模企业PMI 表现趋同， 前期回暖最为明显的大、 中型企业小幅回暖， 其中大型企业本月继续停留扩张区间， 小规模企业仍位于荣枯线以下呈收缩态势， 大中小企业 PMI分别录得 51.1、 49.7、 48.3， 较前月分别回升 0.6、 0.8、 0.7 个百分点。 从制造业 PMI 各分项上看多有小幅修复。具体来看：回顾 9 月份， 全国分散化的疫情及极端天气带来的负面影响逐渐减弱， 需求不足的问题虽未能有效解决， 但供给有所向好。 9 月 PMI 生产指数为 51.5， 前月提升 1.7pct， 显示制造业生产活动终于重回“活跃” 状态。 前期受到压制的需求继续释放， 但绝对水平仍处收缩区间， 整体不强。9 月 PMI 新订单指数录得 49.8，较上月回升 0.6 个百分点， 仍难以重回 6 月份的边际向好态势。 生产经营预期分项仍显稳定迹象， 回升 1.1 个百分点至 53.4', 'content': '[Data] China’s official manufacturing PMI in September was 50.1, compared with the previous value of 49.4. China\\'s official non-manufacturing PMI in September was 50.6, compared with the previous value of 52.6. [Comment] In August, the domestic epidemic situation fermented in scattered ways, and extreme weather had a greater impact on production and life. Fundamentals improved slightly in September, and the manufacturing PMI rebounded by 0.4 percentage points, returning to the line of prosperity and contraction. The PMI performance of enterprises of different sizes converged. Large and medium-sized enterprises, which had the most obvious recovery in the early stage, recovered slightly. Among them, large enterprises continued to stay in the expansion range this month, while small-scale enterprises were still below the boom-bust line and showed a contraction trend. The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises recorded 51.1 respectively. , 49.7, and 48.3, up 0.6, 0.8, and 0.7 percentage points respectively from the previous month. Judging from the various sub-items of the manufacturing PMI, there was a slight recovery. Specifically: Looking back on September, the negative impacts of the decentralized epidemic and extreme weather across the country have gradually weakened. Although the problem of insufficient demand has not been effectively solved, supply has improved. The PMI production index in September was 51.5, an increase of 1.7pct in the previous month, indicating that manufacturing production activities have finally returned to an \"active\" state. The demand that was suppressed in the early stage continues to be released, but the absolute level is still in the contraction range, and the overall level is not strong. The PMI new orders index in September recorded 49.8, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. It is still difficult to return to the marginal improvement trend in June. The production and operation expectations sub-item still showed signs of stability, rising 1.1 percentage points to 53.4', 'authorid': UUID('0a68eb57-c88a-5f34-9e9d-27f85e68af4f'), 'sentimentScore': 0.7751556262373924, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'EE0B263OPFEIPQ89N7C7FHU5ARVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:24 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'EE0B263OPFEIPQ89N7C7FHU5ARVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('34ecf02d-4c45-5e2a-abd2-a0458a9dc86a'), 'title': 'Comments on February PMI data: Manufacturing prosperity declined slightly, non-manufacturing PMI picked up, and small business prosperity dropped to a low level, which deserves attention', 'author': 'Yuan Haixia, Zhang Lin, Wang Yuanhui, Shi Miao', 'orgName': '中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80002154', 'orgSName': '中诚信国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-07', 'encodeUrl': 'd5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Qwnsy4cUi1fBGPRjQTJ9XJc=', 'researcher': '袁海霞,张林,汪苑晖,石淼', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000241949', '11000270239', '11000270236', '11000450331'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=d5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Qwnsy4cUi1fBGPRjQTJ9XJc=', 'site': 'China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中诚信国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625931103_1.pdf?1709829423000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625931103_1.pdf?1709829423000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February PMI data: Manufacturing prosperity declined slightly, non-manufacturing PMI picked up, and small business prosperity dropped to a low level, which deserves attention', 'originalAuthor': '袁海霞,张林,汪苑晖,石淼', 'originalContent': '综合PMI产出指数为50.9%，总体仍处于扩张区间。2月制造业生产指数降至49.8%，较上月下降1.5个百分点，处于历年同期的较低水平。非制造业商务活动指数为51.4%，较上月回升0.7个百分点，位于扩张区间延续回升态势。由于制造业占GDP比重为25.45%，非制造业占GDP比重为74.55%（2023年），制造业生产指数与非制造业商务活动指数一升一降，带来综合PMI产出指数与上月持平，总体处于扩张区间。生产边际放缓需求边际回落，制造业PMI小幅微降。制造业PMI小幅回落，结束了上月的回升态势，较前值下降0.1个百分点至49.1%，连续5个月位于荣枯线以下；其中生产活动有所放缓是制造业景气度下调的主要原因，需求指数较上月有所下降，且仍低于荣枯线。反映市场需求不足的企业占比依然较高，新出口订单指数走弱。2月新订单指数与上月持平为49.0%，连续5个月位于收缩区间，市场需求不足仍是当前制造业修复与回暖所面临的主要问题，本月制造业企业中反映市场需求不足的企业占比超过60%。分行业来看，装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业新订单指数分别为49.5%、50.8%和50%,较上月相比均有所下降，景气水平有所回落，而高耗能行业新订单指数为47.9%，较上月上升0.3个百分点，景气水平边际回升。外需方面，新出口订单较上月回落0.9个百分点至46.3%，仍位于收缩区间。全球外贸景气度有所回调，2月初韩国、越南出口金额同比分别下滑7.8%、4.1%，外需领域仍存在一定的压力，出口走弱的压力仍然存在。季节性因素影响制造业生产回落至收缩区间，产成��库存指数回落。受季节性因素影响，春节所在月份制造业一般处于生产淡季，生产指数较上月下降1.5个百分点至49.8%。库存方面，产成品库存较上月回落1.5个百分点至47.9%，原材料库存较上月回落0.2个百分点至47.4%，采购量指数回落1.2个百分点至48%。分行业看，食品及酒饮料精制茶、医药、有色金属冶炼及压延加工、电气机械器材等行业两个指数均连续两个月位于荣枯线以上；化学纤维及橡胶塑料制品、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工等行业两个指数均位于荣枯线以下。此外，制造业生产经营活动预期指数为54.2%，较上月上升0.2个百分点，仍位于扩张区间，制造业企业对于市场信心总体向稳。', 'content': \"The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.9%, which is still in the expansion range overall. The manufacturing production index fell to 49.8% in February, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and at a relatively low level for the same period in previous years. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and was in the expansion range and continued its upward trend. Since the manufacturing industry accounts for 25.45% of GDP and the non-manufacturing industry accounts for 74.55% of GDP (in 2023), the manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index rise and fall, resulting in a rise in the comprehensive PMI output index. It was flat month on month and generally in the expansion range. The margin of production slowed down, the margin of demand fell, and the manufacturing PMI fell slightly. The manufacturing PMI fell slightly, ending the rebound trend last month. It dropped 0.1 percentage points from the previous value to 49.1%, and has been below the boom-bust line for five consecutive months. Among them, the slowdown in production activities is the main reason for the decline in manufacturing prosperity. The reason is that the demand index has dropped from last month and is still below the boom-bust line. The proportion of companies reflecting insufficient market demand is still high, and the new export orders index has weakened. The new orders index in February was 49.0%, which was the same as last month, and has been in the contraction range for five consecutive months. Insufficient market demand is still the main problem facing the repair and recovery of the current manufacturing industry. Among manufacturing companies this month, the companies that reported insufficient market demand Accounting for more than 60%. In terms of industries, the new order index of the equipment manufacturing industry, high-tech manufacturing industry and consumer goods industry was 49.5%, 50.8% and 50% respectively, which all decreased compared with the previous month. The prosperity level has declined, while the high energy consumption The industry's new orders index was 47.9%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a marginal rebound in prosperity. In terms of external demand, new export orders fell 0.9 percentage points from the previous month to 46.3%, still in the contraction range. The global foreign trade boom has been recovering. In early February, the export value of South Korea and Vietnam fell by 7.8% and 4.1% year-on-year respectively. There is still a certain pressure in the field of external demand, and the pressure of weakening exports still exists. Seasonal factors affected manufacturing production and fell back to the contraction range, and the inventory index of finished goods fell. Affected by seasonal factors, the manufacturing industry in the month of the Spring Festival is generally in the off-season, and the production index fell 1.5 percentage points from the previous month to 49.8%. In terms of inventory, the inventory of finished products fell by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month to 47.9%, the inventory of raw materials fell by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to 47.4%, and the purchase volume index fell by 1.2 percentage points to 48%. In terms of industries, the two indexes of food and alcoholic beverages and refined tea, medicine, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, and electrical machinery and equipment have been above the boom and bust line for two consecutive months; chemical fiber and rubber plastic products, ferrous metal smelting and Both indexes for industries such as calendering and processing are below the boom-bust line. In addition, the expectation index for manufacturing production and operating activities was 54.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still in the expansion range, and manufacturing companies' confidence in the market is generally stable.\", 'authorid': UUID('66f10638-a2dc-5d5b-8c6d-7377b20bf3a3'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9666978707537055, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'JA7KDNGHAAAA6TA2SFDUGS8GHJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:26 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'JA7KDNGHAAAA6TA2SFDUGS8GHJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0ff85153-30f7-5d6d-8fcd-5108b415d27a'), 'title': 'Some understandings of the 2024 Government Work Report', 'author': 'Kangmingyi', 'orgName': '东兴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80114781', 'orgSName': '东兴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-07', 'encodeUrl': 'd5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q9M9gFWJ8TsJVEMpLDworS0=', 'researcher': '康明怡', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000270257'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=d5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q9M9gFWJ8TsJVEMpLDworS0=', 'site': 'Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东兴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625927755_1.pdf?1709823694000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625927755_1.pdf?1709823694000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Some understandings of the 2024 Government Work Report', 'originalAuthor': '康明怡', 'originalContent': '投资摘要：经济增速目标合理。报告设定的2024年的GDP目标为5%，符合市场预期。受海外库存周期部分商品进入补库存阶段的影响，我们预计今年的出口略好于去年，但幅度不大。受新的融资政策支持和保交楼政策的托举，预计今年地产跌幅略有收窄，对GDP的拖累略好于去年。出口和地产企稳将带动投资比去年略有好转。另一方面，去年恢复性增长导致消费对经济增长贡献率达82.5%，今年的消费基数效应下降，消费增速将不及去年。综合来看，虽然今年的经济增速目标小于去年的GDP增速，但仍需积极的宏观政策支持。政策基调的连续性较强。经济工作方面基本延续了去年12月中央经济工作会议的精神。总基调仍为加大力度，可以认为今年的财政和货币政策仍处于宽松区间，与去年下半年相仿。仍然不会大水漫灌，重点支持科技创新和制造业。财政方面，明确提出拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，今年先发行1万亿。货币方面，提及增强资本市场内在稳定性。风险处置基调不变，强调发展和风险防范的联动关系。12月的中央经济工作会议特别强调要满足不同所有权房地产企业的合理融资需求，即融资端举措，这在2024年政府工作报告中表述未变。产业政策重视科技发展。政府工作报告中对于今年工作任务的排列顺序中，首先是科技，其次是教育，再次是经济，基本体现了今年政府工作重心。报告指出就业是最基本的民生。今年有1170万高校毕业生，今年经济发展的城镇新增就业预期目标为1200万人以上。要突出就业优先导向，加强对就业容量大的行业企业支持。风险提示：全球通胀超预期导致全球衰退。', 'content': \"Investment summary: The economic growth target is reasonable. The GDP target set in the report is 5% in 2024, which is in line with market expectations. Affected by the overseas inventory cycle of some commodities entering the restocking stage, we expect this year's exports to be slightly better than last year, but not by much. Supported by the new financing policy and the policy of guaranteeing the delivery of properties, the decline in real estate is expected to narrow slightly this year, and the drag on GDP will be slightly better than last year. Stabilizing exports and real estate will lead to a slight improvement in investment compared with last year. On the other hand, last year's restorative growth caused consumption to contribute 82.5% to economic growth. This year's consumption base effect has declined, and consumption growth will be slower than last year. Taken together, although this year's economic growth target is smaller than last year's GDP growth rate, active macro policy support is still needed. The policy tone has strong continuity. In terms of economic work, the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference held in December last year was basically continued. The general tone is still to increase efforts, and it can be considered that this year's fiscal and monetary policies are still in a loose range, similar to the second half of last year. There will still be no flooding, and the focus will be on supporting technological innovation and manufacturing. In terms of finance, it is clearly proposed to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years, starting with the issuance of 1 trillion yuan this year. In terms of currency, it is mentioned to enhance the inherent stability of the capital market. The tone of risk management remains unchanged, emphasizing the linkage between development and risk prevention. The Central Economic Work Conference in December particularly emphasized the need to meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate companies with different ownerships, that is, financing-side measures. This statement has not changed in the 2024 Government Work Report. Industrial policy attaches great importance to scientific and technological development. In the government work report, the order of this year's work tasks is science and technology first, education second, and economy third, which basically reflects the focus of the government's work this year. The report points out that employment is the most basic livelihood of the people. There are 11.7 million college graduates this year, and the expected target of new urban jobs for economic development this year is more than 12 million. It is necessary to highlight the priority orientation of employment and strengthen support for enterprises in industries with large employment capacity. Risk warning: Global inflation exceeds expectations, leading to a global recession.\", 'authorid': UUID('3f2797dd-6eba-5070-8041-b1ca733a1529'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6258754879236221, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OK27P02ORPL172PHA1CMEP46GNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:29 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OK27P02ORPL172PHA1CMEP46GNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('005d096c-bc92-5063-90a5-73beb6255795'), 'title': 'International data tracking: U.S. economic data weakens, U.S. bond yields fall', 'author': 'Xu Jingya,Cao Shiqi', 'orgName': '南京证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000051', 'orgSName': '南京证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-07', 'encodeUrl': 'd5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q5MtnJpDbNQ+lW6fi6b+CUs=', 'researcher': '徐静雅,曹世棋', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000411231', '11000442938'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=d5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q5MtnJpDbNQ+lW6fi6b+CUs=', 'site': 'Nanjing Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '南京证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625926965_1.pdf?1709810328000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625926965_1.pdf?1709810328000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'International data tracking: U.S. economic data weakens, U.S. bond yields fall', 'originalAuthor': '徐静雅,曹世棋', 'originalContent': '摘要经济数据走弱，美债有所上涨。今年第九周（2.26-3.1）美债收益率整体下行，一周的变化表现为先上后下，其中短端利率涨跌互现，中端利率大幅下行在10bp左右，长端利率小幅下行在5bp左右。各期限国债收益率构成的美债期限结构曲线变陡。周三公布美国去年四季度GDP季调环比折年率，由3.3%下修至3.2%，小幅低于预期，但并未对市场造成较大影响。月底受资产配置再平衡交易影响，美债小幅走高。周四公布的PCE物价指数同比下行，环比涨幅也在市场预期之内。此外，个人消费支出在薪资报酬放缓作用下出现较为明显的下滑，初请失业金人数也有所增长，劳动力市场终于不再强劲，降温迹象显著。在收入支撑力量的减弱下，伴随着超储的持续消耗和利率高压，消费必将迅速趋弱。这是去年三四季度至今以来，重要经济数据首次支持经济放缓，为今年降息做铺垫。周五ISM公布了2月制造业PMI，显示制造业修复速度放慢，产出水平有所下行，预示着今年一季度经济增长速度大概率会下行。受此影响，美债收益率下行，2年期和3年期债券利率下行幅度在10bp及以上，美元指数下降至103.89。截至3月1日收盘，国债2Y下行13bp，收于4.54%；国债10Y下行7bp，收于4.19%。期限利差和信用利差走阔。今年第九周（2.26-3.1）美债期限利差较上周有所走阔，倒挂情况和上周相比加深和缓解情况同存，中美10Y国债收益率利差倒挂程度小幅缓解，美国信用利差小幅走阔。风险提示：美国经济韧性超预期，地缘政治风险，美国财政债务压力凸显，金融部门流动性风险。', 'content': 'Summary economic data weakened, U.S. bonds rose. In the ninth week of this year (2.26-3.1), U.S. bond yields fell overall. The changes during the week were first up and then down. Short-term interest rates were mixed, mid-term interest rates fell sharply around 10bp, and long-term interest rates fell slightly. About 5bp. The U.S. bond term structure curve composed of Treasury bond yields of various maturities has become steeper. On Wednesday, the U.S. GDP seasonally adjusted annualized rate for the fourth quarter of last year was revised down from 3.3% to 3.2%, which was slightly lower than expected, but did not have a major impact on the market. At the end of the month, U.S. Treasuries rose slightly due to the impact of asset allocation rebalancing transactions. The PCE price index released on Thursday declined year-on-year, and the month-on-month increase was within market expectations. In addition, personal consumption expenditures have declined significantly due to the slowdown in wages, and the number of initial jobless claims has also increased. The labor market is finally no longer strong, and there are obvious signs of cooling. With the weakening of income support, along with the continued consumption of excess reserves and high interest rates, consumption will weaken rapidly. This is the first time since the third and fourth quarters of last year that important economic data has supported an economic slowdown, paving the way for an interest rate cut this year. On Friday, ISM released the manufacturing PMI for February, which showed that the recovery speed of the manufacturing industry has slowed down and the output level has declined, indicating that the economic growth rate is likely to decline in the first quarter of this year. Affected by this, U.S. bond yields fell, with 2-year and 3-year bond rates falling by 10bp or more, and the U.S. dollar index fell to 103.89. As of the close on March 1, the 2Y Treasury Bonds fell 13bp to close at 4.54%; the Treasury Bond 10Y fell 7bp to close at 4.19%. Term spreads and credit spreads widened. In the ninth week of this year (2.26-3.1), the U.S. Treasury bond maturity spread widened compared with last week. The inversion situation was both deepened and alleviated compared with last week. The inversion degree of the 10Y Treasury bond yield spread between China and the United States eased slightly. The U.S. Credit spreads widened slightly. Risk warning: The resilience of the U.S. economy exceeds expectations, geopolitical risks, prominent U.S. fiscal debt pressure, and liquidity risks in the financial sector.', 'authorid': UUID('b2efc2af-3d99-51ba-8361-3770c0b4d165'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9538263864815235, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'SC5EVV53JK535P1TKPHFB5AJSNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:36 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'SC5EVV53JK535P1TKPHFB5AJSNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c70f04fe-0a59-5b7d-af2b-515a56a27692'), 'title': 'Interpretation of February PMI data: The manufacturing industry in the United States and South Korea is firmly on the line of prosperity and decline', 'author': 'Zuo Jingran', 'orgName': '联储证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80036123', 'orgSName': '联储证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-07', 'encodeUrl': 'd5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q6hlnbT+fM3Hl0AatZvg9Pc=', 'researcher': '左景冉', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000444039'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=d5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q6hlnbT+fM3Hl0AatZvg9Pc=', 'site': 'Fed Securities, Inc.', 'originalSite': '联储证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625926964_1.pdf?1709824821000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625926964_1.pdf?1709824821000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of February PMI data: The manufacturing industry in the United States and South Korea is firmly on the line of prosperity and decline', 'originalAuthor': '左景冉', 'originalContent': '投资要点：美国、韩国制造业2月站稳荣枯线上，欧元区景气度修复仍遥遥无期，印证我们前几个月对重点国家制造业的分析。具体从美国和韩国制造业看，美韩制造业高景气分别主要受益拜登政府“制造业回流计划”，以及“半导体上行周期”，预计未来几个月AI大模型算力硬件和消费电子催化下，制造业大概率保持高景气。从欧元区制造业看，本月是欧元区制造业连续第20个月处在荣枯线以下，主因是德国、法国两大欧洲经济核心引擎制造业失速。从近月看，德法制造业景气度虽有上升，但何时走出收缩区间尚无明确迹象。国内制造业方面，2月制造业PMI录得49.1，较前值降0.1pct，景气度因春节效应略有下滑。制造业PMI主要构成项全面领先季节性，但制造业由延续6个月的“供给扩张、需求收缩”转向“供需双收缩”，预计节后生产陆续恢复。具体从3方面看：供需两端看，2月生产和外需下降、内需持平，供需均处在收缩区间；进出口看，2月进出口再度转弱；价格方面，出厂价格指数升、原材料价格指数降，自2023年10月份以来利润空间首度扩大。2月服务业PMI录得50.1，较前值升0.9pct，主要是春节效应带动下，居民出行和假日消费意愿增强；建筑业PMI方面，2月各分项，仅新订单持平季节性，其他分项低于5年均值。具体看，服务业PMI方面，2月各构成项基本持平5年均值，仅新订单��幅落后滞后季节性，投入品价格是本月服务业景气改善最大项目。建筑业PMI方面，2月各分项，仅新订单持平季节性，其他分项低于5年均值。风险提示：制造业需求恢复不及预期、地缘政治风险、红海局势升级风险、海外经济出现超预期衰退、海外二次通胀风险、美国新建产业开工时间延后等', 'content': 'Investment points: The manufacturing industries of the United States and South Korea stood firmly on the line of prosperity and contraction in February, and the recovery of the Eurozone\\'s prosperity is still far away, confirming our analysis of the manufacturing industries of key countries in the past few months. Looking specifically at the manufacturing industries of the United States and South Korea, the high prosperity of the manufacturing industries in the United States and South Korea mainly benefits from the Biden administration\\'s \"manufacturing reshoring plan\" and the \"semiconductor up cycle\". It is expected that AI large-model computing hardware and consumer electronics will catalyze the growth in the next few months. Under this situation, the manufacturing industry is likely to maintain high prosperity. From the perspective of the euro area manufacturing industry, this month is the 20th consecutive month that the euro area manufacturing industry has been below the boom and bust line. The main reason is that the manufacturing industries of Germany and France, the two core engines of the European economy, have stalled. Judging from recent months, although the prosperity of the manufacturing industry in Germany and France has increased, there is no clear sign of when it will exit the contraction range. In terms of domestic manufacturing, the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.1 in February, down 0.1pct from the previous value. The prosperity level declined slightly due to the Spring Festival effect. The main components of the manufacturing PMI are all ahead of seasonality, but the manufacturing industry has shifted from \"supply expansion and demand contraction\" that lasted for six months to \"supply and demand contraction\", and production is expected to resume after the holiday. Specifically, from three aspects: from both sides of supply and demand, production and external demand declined in February, while domestic demand remained flat, and supply and demand were both in contraction range; from the perspective of import and export, import and export weakened again in February; in terms of price, the ex-factory price index rose, and raw material prices The index fell, and profit margins expanded for the first time since October 2023. In February, the service industry PMI recorded 50.1, up 0.9pct from the previous value, mainly due to the increased willingness of residents to travel and holiday consumption driven by the Spring Festival effect; in terms of the construction industry PMI, in February, only new orders remained seasonal, while others It is lower than the 5-year average. Specifically, in terms of the service industry PMI, all components in February were basically the same as the five-year average, with only new orders slightly lagging behind the lagging seasonality. Input prices were the biggest improvement in the service industry boom this month. In terms of the construction PMI, among all the components in February, only new orders were seasonal, while other components were lower than the five-year average. Risk warning: Manufacturing demand recovery is less than expected, geopolitical risks, risk of escalation of the Red Sea situation, overseas economic recession beyond expectations, overseas secondary inflation risk, delay in the start of new industries in the United States, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('55454838-fb02-5d8f-b8ca-735f5e850009'), 'sentimentScore': 0.7979737482964993, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'JTM3FMK7ERD571JGO6Q96D6AKBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:39 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'JTM3FMK7ERD571JGO6Q96D6AKBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('152416bc-11eb-5cae-b699-37ac38f563c4'), 'title': 'Leading the construction of a modern industrial system with technological innovation and new quality productivity', 'author': 'Chen Li', 'orgName': '川财证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000204', 'orgSName': '川财证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-07', 'encodeUrl': 'd5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q6nxz+7itbPr8bG/Nl8SF4U=', 'researcher': '陈雳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000174919'], 'count': 13, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=d5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6Q6nxz+7itbPr8bG/Nl8SF4U=', 'site': 'Chuancai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '川财证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625919974_1.pdf?1709804487000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625919974_1.pdf?1709804487000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Leading the construction of a modern industrial system with technological innovation and new quality productivity', 'originalAuthor': '陈雳', 'originalContent': '事件2024年3月5日上午，十四届全国人大二次会议开幕。李强总理作政府工作报告。（中国政府网）点评2024年GDP增长预期目标定为5%左右，符合市场的一致预期。稳健的经济增速目标，一方面体现了稳增长、稳就业的政策取向，另一方面，也是基于对我国发展环境的理性认知。外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升，我国经济持续回升向好的基础有待进一步巩固，在这样的宏观背景下，5%的经济增速目标，既兼顾了我国经济发展面临的挑战，又为新动能的成长留出了空间，有助于宏观经济稳定、持续增长，实现高质量发展。2024年中央财政预算赤字率持平去年，今年将发行1万亿元特别国债，总量适度、结构优化。财政政策延续适度加力、提质增效的基调，赤字率依然维持在3%，预计今年总量支出强度适度。报告提出，从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。1万亿元特别国债成为增量，重大战略、重点领域有望得到更大力度的资金支持，或将推动支出结构的优化。此外，超长期特别国债的发行，一方面体现了中央加杠杆、稳增长、稳预期的政策导向；另一方面，为中长期重点项目提供了相对低成本的资金，或将助力缓解地方政府债务压力。“大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力”作为2024年政府工作十大任务的第一项，强调以科技创新、新质生产力引领现代化产业体系建设。科技创新、高质量发展目标为牵引，产业链供应链优化升级、培育新兴产业和未来产业、数字经济创新发展将成为建设现代化产业体系的有力抓手，新质生产力将加快我国经济增长新动能的培育。绿色可持续发展也将更加深入人心，做好数字金融、科技金融、绿色金融等五篇大文章是金融工作的重要看点，金融服务实体经济的能效将不断增加。风险提示：宏观经济不及预期，出现严重信用事件，政策变化不及预期。', 'content': 'Event On the morning of March 5, 2024, the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress opened. Premier Li Qiang delivered a government work report. (Chinese Government Website) Dianping’s expected GDP growth target in 2024 is set at around 5%, in line with the market’s consensus expectations. The steady economic growth target reflects the policy orientation of stabilizing growth and employment on the one hand. On the other hand, it is also based on a rational understanding of my country\\'s development environment. The complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the external environment have increased, and the foundation for my country\\'s sustained economic recovery needs to be further consolidated. Against this macro background, the 5% economic growth target takes into account the challenges faced by my country\\'s economic development. , and leaves room for the growth of new driving forces, which will help stabilize and sustain macroeconomic growth and achieve high-quality development. The central fiscal budget deficit rate in 2024 will be the same as last year. This year, 1 trillion yuan of special government bonds will be issued, with an appropriate total amount and an optimized structure. The fiscal policy continues to be moderately intensified and improves quality and efficiency. The deficit rate remains at 3%. It is expected that the total expenditure intensity this year will be moderate. The report proposes that starting from this year, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years, specifically for the implementation of major national strategies and the construction of security capabilities in key areas. This year, 1 trillion yuan will be issued first. 1 trillion yuan of special national debt has become an increment, and major strategies and key areas are expected to receive greater financial support, which may promote the optimization of the expenditure structure. In addition, the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, on the one hand, reflects the central government\\'s policy orientation of increasing leverage, stabilizing growth, and stabilizing expectations; on the other hand, it provides relatively low-cost funds for medium- and long-term key projects, which may help alleviate local government debt. pressure. \"Vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerate the development of new productive forces\" is the first of the ten major government tasks in 2024, emphasizing the use of technological innovation and new productive forces to lead the construction of a modern industrial system. Driven by the goals of technological innovation and high-quality development, the optimization and upgrading of industrial and supply chains, the cultivation of emerging industries and future industries, and the innovative development of the digital economy will become a powerful starting point for building a modern industrial system. New quality productivity will accelerate the creation of new momentum for my country\\'s economic growth. Nurture. Green and sustainable development will also be more deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. The five major articles of digital finance, technology finance, and green finance are important aspects of financial work. The energy efficiency of financial services to the real economy will continue to increase. Risk warning: The macro economy is less than expected, serious credit events occur, and policy changes are less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('267e0858-7a39-5196-be76-43e80fed6dc6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.3177518155425787, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'JBQJCPL5PKD9LCF3T4I89DI9FRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'JBQJCPL5PKD9LCF3T4I89DI9FRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f7d7dfe8-691b-516e-804b-09affc584e26'), 'title': '2024 US Election Express (3): \"Super Tuesday\" votes are opened, and Trump\\'s victory within the party is locked in advance', 'author': 'Wei Wei, Zhou Chang', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-07', 'encodeUrl': 'd5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6QwYgtEIQItvfs+ikHtaBK6Q=', 'researcher': '魏伟,周畅', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000191821', '11000443154'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=d5Exx5hVyNgzcqSbNzD6QwYgtEIQItvfs+ikHtaBK6Q=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625915494_1.pdf?1709803773000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403071625915494_1.pdf?1709803773000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '2024 US Election Express (3): \"Super Tuesday\" votes are opened, and Trump\\'s victory within the party is locked in advance', 'originalAuthor': '魏伟,周畅', 'originalContent': '地缘问题处理方式持续拉低拜登支持率，“支持民主党但反对拜登”的“不表态”选项在多州得票率较高，后续巴以冲突、俄乌冲突如何处理对拜登团队而言尤为重要：伴随拜登取得“超级星期二”民主党党内全胜，另一隐患更加凸显，“超级星期二”中多州效仿此前密歇根州初选时“倾听密歇根”运动，以投票“不表态”选项督促拜登调整亲以立场。截至当地时间3月5日22点，此选项在明尼苏达州、北卡罗来纳州、马萨诸塞州的得票率均超10%，其中投票该选项的选民大部分为阿拉伯裔选民、青少年选民，而该群体在2020年大选中为拜登票仓选民。目前距离最终大选时刻还有8个月时间，后续巴以冲突、俄乌冲突是否得以妥善处理将对拜登选举进程产生较大影响。', 'content': 'The way in which geopolitical issues are handled continues to lower Biden’s approval rate. The “no-state” option of “supporting the Democratic Party but opposing Biden” has higher vote rates in many states. How to deal with the subsequent conflicts between Palestine and Israel and Russia and Ukraine will be a big challenge for Biden’s team. Particularly important: As Biden achieved a complete victory within the Democratic Party on Super Tuesday, another hidden danger became more prominent. On Super Tuesday, many states followed the \"Listen to Michigan\" campaign in the previous Michigan primary and voted for the \"no voice\" option. Urging Biden to adjust his pro-Israel stance. As of 22:00 local time on March 5, this option has received more than 10% of the vote in Minnesota, North Carolina, and Massachusetts. Most of the voters who voted for this option are Arab voters and teenage voters. A voter in the Biden ticket in the 2020 election. There are still eight months left before the final election. Whether the subsequent conflicts between Palestine and Israel and Russia and Ukraine can be properly handled will have a greater impact on Biden\\'s election process.', 'authorid': UUID('34e7baf4-e205-5137-b5ef-d1ca6bacf118'), 'sentimentScore': -0.22111286222934723, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8KVD8FDA4RISG2BM298S03OJ3FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:47 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8KVD8FDA4RISG2BM298S03OJ3FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "The size of tensor a (513) must match the size of tensor b (512) at non-singleton dimension 1\n", - "{'id': UUID('98624031-9333-559f-8335-56b2b96f6164'), 'title': 'Learning experience from the 2024 Government Work Report: Focus on strengthening the construction of the credit service system and fully support the development of new quality productivity', 'author': 'Research and Development Department', 'orgName': '远东资信评估有限公司', 'orgCode': '80002101', 'orgSName': '远东资信', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13NzCzM95rlnen7jKPEqMW14=', 'researcher': '研究与发展部', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000460031'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13NzCzM95rlnen7jKPEqMW14=', 'site': 'Far East Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '远东资信', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625774181_1.pdf?1709762514000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625774181_1.pdf?1709762514000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Learning experience from the 2024 Government Work Report: Focus on strengthening the construction of the credit service system and fully support the development of new quality productivity', 'originalAuthor': '研究与发展部', 'originalContent': '3月5日，国务院总理李强在向十四届全国人大二次会议所作2024年政府工作报告（以下简称“政府工作报告”）中，深刻指出了过去一年全面建设社会主义现代化国家迈出坚实步伐，进而明确提出了今年经济社会发展的总体要求，其中强调大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力。本文密切结合我们所处行业，认真学习领悟习总书记在中共中央政治局第十一次集体学习时讲话和李总理作的2024年政府工作报告精神，重点针对信用服务业全力服务新质生产力发展做出如下思考。需强调的是，本文所指的信用服务体系暨信用服务行业，系指依法向社会提供信用信息服务、信用增进、信用管理咨询等信用产品和服务的专业服务机构，包括企业征信、个人征信、信用评级、信用担保、信用保险、商业保理、信用管理咨询等丰富业态体系。一、提升科创领域信用服务体系质量，助推创新引擎赋能高质量发展今年1月，习近平总书记在中共中央政治局第十一次集体学习讲话（以下简称“讲话”）时强调，加快发展新质生产力，扎实推进高质量发展。讲话明确指出了新质生产力概念基本内涵——“新质生产力是创新起主导作用，摆脱传统经济增长方式、生产力发展路径，具有高科技、高效能、高质量特征，符合新发展理念的先进生产力质态”。讲话深刻指出，科技创新能够催生新产业、新模式、新动能，是发展新质生产力的核心要素。李总理所作的政府工作报告，关于加快发展新质生产力则继续强调，充分发挥创新主导作用，以科技创新推动产业创新，加快推进新型工业化，提高全要素生产率，不断塑造发展新动能新优势，促进社会生产力实现新的跃升。本文认为，新质生产力以创新为引领，而科技创新是全社会创新体系建设的核心和关键要素。科技创新是推动人类社会变革、生产生活改善和促进国民经济高质量发展的重要力量。加快科技创新是推动中国式现代化建设的关键引擎，是提高我国科技创新自主能力，打赢核心关键技术攻坚战，扭转关键核心技术受制于人、产业链长期位居中低端的不利局面，促进国民经济产业体系现代化建设，实现科技强国和制造强国等强国目标的行动基础。深入来说，加快科技创新需要突出强调提升科技型企业创新发展能力，科技型企业无论大型企业还是中小企业，都是推进科技高水平自立自强、实现科技强国目标的重要载体。相对于倾向于以基础科研为主的事业性科研院所，科技型企业的科技创新具有更加反映市场需求的特点，科技型企业的应用创新是基础科技研究的重要补充，是推进科技成果商业化、市场化，或者说推动科创成果贴近市场需求、实现造福于民的重要载体。既往经验证明，科技型中小企业成为我国乃至全球主要经济体促进科技创新发展的活跃力量，然而，融资难、融资贵的问题也一直成为困扰科技型企业发展的一大瓶颈。从债券融资视域来看，2015年以来，我国陆续出台专门政策支持债券市场加强对科技创新支持力度，为推动双创公司债券、双创专项债务融资工具、科技创新公司债券、科创票据和混合型科创票据等科技创新债券品种上市提供了制度支撑，推动了科创债市场的平稳发展乃至快速发展。但目前，债券市场支持科技创新方面，不仅市场规模仍然有待显著扩容，而且针对科技创新尤其核心/关键/共性/原创技术支持精准性不强，针对科技型中小企业支持力度十分薄弱，此外，在兼顾区域公平、促进区域间协调发展方面存在明显不足。究其原因，不仅包括科技型企业经营失败风险较大、科技型企业信息披露不够完善、专项债券种设计有待深入完善、科技资源布局具有明显的区域集中性和差异性等原因，也有针对科技型企业的信用服务支持力度和精度有待增强的问题。展望未来，大力发展以创新为主导的新质生产力，需要高效率破解科技型中小企业融资瓶颈的世界性难题，信用服务业在增强服务科技型中小企业的能力方面还有明显改善潜力。其中，信用评级机构结合科技创新特点，深入开展科技型中小企业信用评级方法和模型等技术体系建设，有助于提高科技企业信用风险甄别预警能级；征信行业改善科技型企业征信报告服务能力，有助于丰富投资者所需的科技企业信用信息内容；而加强科技企业信用担保服务，有助于提升企业信用质量和降低投资风险。综合而言，针对科技型企业的信用服务体系仍然有待深化建设，进而助力金融市场明显提升对于包括符国家战略导向的优质科技企业“明日之星”在内的优质科技企业的债务融资支持能力。', 'content': 'On March 5, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council, in his 2024 Government Work Report (hereinafter referred to as the \"Government Work Report\") delivered to the Second Session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress, profoundly pointed out that solid progress has been made in building a socialist modern country in an all-round way over the past year. pace, and then clearly put forward the overall requirements for economic and social development this year, which emphasized vigorously promoting the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerating the development of new productive forces. This article is closely combined with the industry we are in, carefully studying and understanding the spirit of General Secretary Xi’s speech at the 11th collective study session of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the 2024 Government Work Report delivered by Premier Li, focusing on the credit service industry to fully serve the development of new quality productivity. Consider the following. It should be emphasized that the credit service system and credit service industry referred to in this article refers to professional service institutions that provide credit information services, credit enhancement, credit management consulting and other credit products and services to the society in accordance with the law, including corporate credit reporting, personal reporting Credit, credit rating, credit guarantee, credit insurance, commercial factoring, credit management consulting and other rich business format systems. 1. Improve the quality of the credit service system in the field of science and technology innovation and promote innovation engines to enable high-quality development. In January this year, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized in the 11th collective study speech of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee (hereinafter referred to as the \"Speech\") that accelerating Develop new productive forces and solidly promote high-quality development. The speech clearly pointed out the basic connotation of the concept of new quality productivity - \"New quality productivity is advanced productivity that plays a leading role in innovation, breaks away from the traditional economic growth mode and productivity development path, has the characteristics of high technology, high efficiency and high quality, and conforms to the new development concept. Quality\". The speech profoundly pointed out that scientific and technological innovation can give birth to new industries, new models, and new driving forces, and is the core element of developing new productive forces. The government work report delivered by Prime Minister Li continued to emphasize on accelerating the development of new productive forces, giving full play to the leading role of innovation, promoting industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, accelerating new industrialization, improving total factor productivity, constantly shaping new drivers of development and new advantages, and promoting Social productivity achieved a new leap. This article believes that new productive forces are led by innovation, and scientific and technological innovation is the core and key element of the construction of the entire social innovation system. Scientific and technological innovation is an important force that promotes the transformation of human society, improves production and life, and promotes high-quality development of the national economy. Accelerating scientific and technological innovation is the key engine to promote China-style modernization. It is to improve our country\\'s independent ability in scientific and technological innovation, win the battle against core and key technologies, reverse the unfavorable situation of key and core technologies being controlled by others, and the industrial chain being at the middle and low end for a long time, and promote the national economic industry. System modernization is the basis for action to achieve the goals of becoming a scientific and technological power and a manufacturing power. In depth, accelerating scientific and technological innovation requires a strong emphasis on improving the innovation and development capabilities of scientific and technological enterprises. Whether large enterprises or small and medium-sized enterprises, scientific and technological enterprises are important carriers to promote high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and achieve the goal of becoming a technologically powerful country. Compared with commercial research institutes that tend to focus on basic scientific research, the scientific and technological innovation of scientific and technological enterprises has the characteristics of more reflecting market demand. The applied innovation of scientific and technological enterprises is an important supplement to basic scientific and technological research and is an important factor in promoting the commercialization of scientific and technological achievements. , marketization, or an important carrier to promote scientific and technological innovation achievements to meet market demand and benefit the people. Past experience has proved that technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises have become an active force in promoting the development of technological innovation in my country and even in major economies around the world. However, the problem of difficult and expensive financing has always been a major bottleneck that plagues the development of technology-based enterprises. From the perspective of bond financing, since 2015, my country has successively introduced special policies to support the bond market in strengthening its support for scientific and technological innovation, in order to promote mass entrepreneurship and innovation corporate bonds, mass entrepreneurship and innovation special debt financing instruments, scientific and technological innovation corporate bonds, scientific and technological innovation notes and The listing of scientific and technological innovation bond types such as hybrid scientific and technological innovation notes has provided institutional support and promoted the steady and even rapid development of the scientific and technological innovation bond market. However, at present, in terms of the bond market\\'s support for technological innovation, not only does the market scale still need to be significantly expanded, but the support for technological innovation, especially core/key/common/original technologies, is not very precise, and the support for technological small and medium-sized enterprises is very weak. In addition, in There are obvious deficiencies in taking into account regional equity and promoting coordinated development among regions. The reasons include not only the greater risk of business failure of technology-based enterprises, insufficient information disclosure of technology-based enterprises, the design of special bond types that need to be further improved, and the obvious regional concentration and differences in the layout of technology resources, but also for technology-based companies. The strength and accuracy of corporate credit service support need to be enhanced. Looking to the future, vigorously developing innovation-led new productive forces requires efficiently solving the global problem of financing bottlenecks for technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises. The credit service industry still has obvious improvement potential in enhancing its ability to serve technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises. Among them, credit rating agencies have combined the characteristics of technological innovation to carry out in-depth construction of technical systems such as credit rating methods and models for technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, which will help improve the level of credit risk screening and early warning for technology-based enterprises; the credit industry has improved credit reporting services for technology-based enterprises Capabilities will help enrich the credit information content of technology companies required by investors; and strengthening credit guarantee services for technology companies will help improve corporate credit quality and reduce investment risks. Generally speaking, the credit service system for technology-based enterprises still needs to be further developed, which will help the financial market significantly improve its debt financing support capabilities for high-quality technology companies, including the \"stars of tomorrow\" that are in line with the national strategic orientation.', 'authorid': UUID('136497c3-c981-5bcc-b066-833e0e249e00'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6262224707752466, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '1J32BMSG3SKDB2AVULD4S475QJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:53 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '1J32BMSG3SKDB2AVULD4S475QJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('673e3afa-6ad1-5f8b-83b9-fca95088018d'), 'title': 'Macro Research: Five Focus Points in the Budget Draft', 'author': 'Zhang Jun ,Nie Tianqi', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13HvTTn3UQyiDj1nZeIv1hTI=', 'researcher': '章俊,聂天奇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000450636'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13HvTTn3UQyiDj1nZeIv1hTI=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625700122_1.pdf?1709758993000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625700122_1.pdf?1709758993000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Research: Five Focus Points in the Budget Draft', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,聂天奇', 'originalContent': '核心观点：3月6日财政部公布了《关于2023年中央和地方预算执行情况与2024年中央和地方预算草案的报告》，从今年预算草案的整体内容来看，对于财政重点支持方向、区域间的财力流向以及央地间的债务融资较以往年度均有显著变化。通过地方政府性基金和国有资本经营预算的收支安排中，也反映出中央对于地产投资的预期趋稳、地方“盘活存量”的压力也有大幅缓解。主要内容如下：一、财政首要支持政策转向经济转型和科技创新。根据过往几年预算草案来看，每年基本会公布7-8项主要政策，其基本规律是：后几项政策相对固定，而前三项政策的内容和排序往往指明当年重点方向。例如2022年首要政策目标是保市场主体、2023年为扩大内需，而今年我们看到主要政策的前两项均和科创相关，第一是支持加快现代化产业体系建设，第二是支持深入实施科教兴国战略。去年的首要目标“扩大内需”已经移居第三。据此我们认为：新一轮财政逆周期调控或不同于以往几次传统基建投资扩张，将更加兼顾跨周期调节、聚焦经济转型和科技创新。具体财政支持政策有以下几方面：一是税收政策方面的表述更多为“落实”，既落实技术改造相关投资税收优惠，落实研发费用加计扣除等政策；二是政府专项产业基金的资金支持；三是国企改革，在国有资本经营预算基础上更好发挥国有资本和国有企业在科技创新中的引领、引导作用；四是财政对于教育和研发支持。二、“大国大城”战略下财政和基建转向人口流入的发达经济带。本次预算草案在提及“推动城镇化建设”时，对于“三大工程”即城市基础设施的建设将更多倾向吸纳农村人口较多的城市，并推动健全常住地提供基本公共服务制度。这意味着未来人口大量流入的大中城市基础设施和公共服务建设将是财政重点支持方向。三、广义财政显著扩张，但主体转向中央负债。2024年一般公共预算支出增速4%，略低于去年，财政扩张主要靠政府性基金支出的大幅扩张。2024年政府性基金预算收入增长0.1%，与去年持平，但支出增长18.6%，支出绝对值较去年增长约1.88万亿。其背后主要是1万亿的新增超长期特别国债以及6000多亿的中央政府性基金预算（去年超收和往年结余）对地方的转移支付。需要注意的是，今年政府性基金的扩张与往年显著不同的是，增量资金主要来于中央，而不是往年持续扩张的地方专项债。对于政府投融资而言，意味着更低的融资利率和更低的债务风险。四、地方政府性基金收入背后隐含了中央对于地产的预期转向平稳。自2021年以来，由于房地产行业的持续下行，作为地方政府性基金主要收入的土地出让金收入连续3年大幅下行。2024年预算草案中，对于地方政府性基金收入的目标为6.6万亿，较去年增长0.1%。我们认为这一增速目标较为客观，也从侧面反映了中央对于2024年房地产一级市场的判断和政策导向仍然以稳为主。五、国有资本经营预算反映地方“盘活存量”压力大幅缓解��对比2023年国有资本经营预算的完成情况和2024年的收支预算，可以显著发现今年的收支增速大幅缓解。其中2023年国有资本经营预算收入为6743亿元，预算完成度为125.9%，增长18.4%。报告显示其收入高增的背后主要是地方加大资产处置力度，一次性产权转让收入增加，地方国有资本经营收入增长较多。而2024年国有资本经营预算收入仅为5925.14亿元，下降12.1%，主要是地方收入调降较多。“一升一降”背后反映了疫后财政逐步走向正常化，地方国资通过存量盘活应急的压力大幅缓解。', 'content': 'Core point of view: On March 6, the Ministry of Finance announced the \"Report on the Implementation of the Central and Local Budgets in 2023 and the Draft Central and Local Budgets in 2024\". Judging from the overall content of this year\\'s budget draft, there are key fiscal support directions, regional The flow of financial resources between the central and local governments and the debt financing between central and local governments have changed significantly compared with previous years. The revenue and expenditure arrangements through local government funds and state-owned capital operating budgets also reflect that the central government’s expectations for real estate investment have stabilized, and the pressure on local governments to “revitalize stock” has also been significantly eased. The main contents are as follows: 1. The primary fiscal support policy shifts to economic transformation and technological innovation. According to the budget drafts of the past few years, 7-8 major policies will be announced every year. The basic rule is: the last few policies are relatively fixed, while the content and order of the first three policies often indicate the key directions of the year. For example, the primary policy objectives in 2022 are to protect market entities and in 2023 to expand domestic demand. However, this year we see that the first two major policies are related to science and technology innovation. The first is to support the acceleration of the construction of a modern industrial system, and the second is to support in-depth implementation. The strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education. Last year\\'s primary goal of \"expanding domestic demand\" has moved to third place. Based on this, we believe that the new round of fiscal countercyclical regulation may be different from previous expansions of traditional infrastructure investment, and will pay more attention to cross-cyclical adjustment and focus on economic transformation and technological innovation. Specific financial support policies include the following aspects: First, the tax policy is more often expressed as \"implementation\", which includes the implementation of tax incentives for investments related to technological transformation and the implementation of policies such as super deductions for R&D expenses; second, financial support from government special industry funds The third is the reform of state-owned enterprises, which will better play the leading and guiding role of state-owned capital and state-owned enterprises in scientific and technological innovation on the basis of state-owned capital operating budgets. The fourth is financial support for education and research and development. 2. Under the “big country, big city” strategy, finance and infrastructure will shift to developed economic zones with population inflows. When this draft budget mentions \"promoting urbanization\", the construction of urban infrastructure, namely the \"three major projects\", will be more inclined to absorb cities with large rural populations, and promote and improve the system of providing basic public services in permanent residences. This means that the construction of infrastructure and public services in large and medium-sized cities with a large population inflow in the future will be the focus of financial support. 3. Broad fiscal expansion expanded significantly, but the main body turned to central liabilities. The growth rate of general public budget expenditures in 2024 is 4%, slightly lower than last year. Fiscal expansion mainly relies on the substantial expansion of government fund expenditures. In 2024, government fund budget revenue will increase by 0.1%, the same as last year, but expenditures will increase by 18.6%, and the absolute value of expenditures will increase by approximately 1.88 trillion compared with last year. The main reasons behind this are 1 trillion new ultra-long-term special government bonds and more than 600 billion central government fund budget (last year\\'s overcollection and previous years\\' surplus) transfer payments to local governments. It should be noted that this year’s expansion of government funds is significantly different from previous years in that the incremental funds mainly come from the central government, rather than local special bonds that continued to expand in previous years. For government investment and financing, it means lower financing interest rates and lower debt risks. 4. The revenue from local government funds implies that the central government’s expectations for real estate have stabilized. Since 2021, due to the continued downturn in the real estate industry, land transfer fee income, the main income of local government funds, has declined sharply for three consecutive years. In the 2024 budget draft, the target for local government fund revenue is 6.6 trillion, an increase of 0.1% from last year. We believe that this growth rate target is relatively objective, and it also reflects from the side that the central government’s judgment and policy guidance for the primary real estate market in 2024 is still focused on stability. 5. The state-owned capital operating budget reflects that the pressure on local governments to “revitalize the stock” has been significantly relieved. Comparing the completion of the state-owned capital operating budget in 2023 with the revenue and expenditure budget in 2024, it can be clearly found that the growth rate of revenue and expenditure this year has eased significantly. Among them, the budget revenue of state-owned capital operations in 2023 is 674.3 billion yuan, and the budget completion rate is 125.9%, an increase of 18.4%. The report shows that the main reason behind its high revenue growth is that local governments have increased their efforts in asset disposal, one-time property rights transfer revenue has increased, and local state-owned capital operating revenue has increased significantly. The budget revenue from state-owned capital operations in 2024 is only 592.514 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1%, mainly due to a large reduction in local revenue. \"One increase and one decrease\" reflects the gradual normalization of finance after the epidemic, and the emergency pressure on local state-owned assets has been greatly alleviated through the revitalization of stocks.', 'authorid': UUID('bd8b59b5-0702-5498-bd36-917d7e164bee'), 'sentimentScore': 0.14137843996286392, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '01UK6PNDJGFK49FGC7KVU8960BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:56:57 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '01UK6PNDJGFK49FGC7KVU8960BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('fecb0f90-24e0-57c0-a368-2e07025d319e'), 'title': 'U.S. Economy: PMI points to mild economic slowdown', 'author': 'Ye Bingnan, Liu Zehui', 'orgName': '招银国际金融有限公司', 'orgCode': '80027629', 'orgSName': '招银国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13CSBievc/elfOwG95I1Jdao=', 'researcher': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000395738', '11000444841'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13CSBievc/elfOwG95I1Jdao=', 'site': 'CMB International Capital Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招银国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625698514_1.pdf?1709757580000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625698514_1.pdf?1709757580000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. Economy: PMI points to mild economic slowdown', 'originalAuthor': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'originalContent': '2月美国服务业PMI小幅回落至52.6，略低于市场预期，美国服务业连续14个月扩张但增速有所放缓。2月制造业PMI下降至47.8，大幅低于市场预期，连续16个月处于收缩区间。虽然制造业陷入长时间衰退，但服务业持续扩张支撑美国经济韧性。服务业与制造业的就业指数均大幅下降进入收缩区间，显示就业市场降温，2月非农就业数据有下行风险。服务业价格指数延续扩张，制造业价格指数1、2月反弹至荣枯线以上，显示商品价格反弹。目前核心PCE通胀仍显著高于美联储的目标，失业率仍显著低于自然失业率，我们认为美联储可能维持当前政策利率水平，待就业和通胀数据进一步冷却后才会启动降息周期。随着实际利率居高的紧缩效应进一步显现，第二季度经济可能明显冷却。我们预计美国GDP增速将从2023年的2.5%降至2024年的1.4%，总需求放缓和供应链恢复将推动PCE通胀从2023年的3.7%降至2024年的2.5%，名义GDP增速从2023年的6.2%降至2024年的4%。美联储可能从6月开始降息，全年降息1个百分点。降息之后实际利率仍显著高于实际中性利率，货币政策仍在紧缩性状态，同时即将结束的银行定期资助计划（BTFP）也使美国银行体系重新面临流动性风险，美联储将在3月会议讨论是否放缓量化紧缩（QT）。预计美国10年国债收益率上半年仍有波动，下半年将有所回落，年末降至3.75%左右。服务业PMI延续扩张但小幅回落，就业重回收缩，通胀略有回落。ISM服务业PMI从1月的53.4小幅回落至52.6，略低市场预期的53，连续14个月保持扩张。其中商业活动指数从55.8上升至57.2。就业指数从50.5下降至48，显示2月的非农就业数据有下行风险。报告表示劳工成本连续上升，其中合同工和熟练工的价格分别连续上升6和2个月，显示薪资增速仍较高，拖累服务业通胀回落。新订单指数从55继续上升至56.1，显示服务业需求保持旺盛。库存指数从49.1继续下降至47.1，物价指数从64回落至58.6，显示服务通胀有所放缓。供应商交付指数从52.4下降至48.9，交付时间缩短。新出口订单指数从56.1降至51.6，进口指数从59.9下降至54.3。分行业来看，建筑业、零售、政府服务、医疗卫生与社会救助、餐饮住宿、专业、科学与技术服务和金融与保险等十四个行业有所扩张。房地产与租赁以及艺术与娱乐休闲等行业则在收缩。根据历史经验，服务业PMI超过49%预示经济扩张。2月52.6的服务业PMI对应年化GDP增速约为1.2%。制造业PMI延续收缩，商品价格反弹。制造业PMI从1月的49.1下降至2月的47.8，低于市场预期，连续16个月处于收缩区间。在主要行业中，有7个进一步收缩，包括家具、机械、木制品、电脑和电子产品和食品饮料及香烟等。服装、非金属矿物制品、初级金属、塑料与橡胶制品等8个行业报告扩张，较上月增加4个。制造业产出和新订单指数从1月的50.4和52.5大幅下降至48.4和49.2，显示生产活动与需求有所走弱。库存指数从46.2降至45.3，显示企业去库存速度加快。价格指数从52.9小幅下降至52.5，原材料价格继续反弹，PPI降幅或将缩窄。供应商交付指数从1月的49.1升至50.1，反映交货速度变慢。制造业就业指数继续下跌，从47.1降至45.9，接近后疫情时代低点。出口订单回升至51.6，进口订单继续上升至53。基于历史经验，制造业PMI低于50显示制造业收缩，低于42.5往往表明整体经济收缩，47.8的制造业PMI值对应的GDP增速约为1.5%。经济温和放缓，美联储可能在6月开始降息。PMI数据显示美国经济温和放缓，虽然制造业陷入长时间衰退，但服务业持续扩张支撑美国经济韧性。PMI的就业指数指向就业市场降温，2月非农就业数据有下行风险。随着通胀不断回落，实际利率已升至历史高位，货币政策紧缩对经济的抑制将逐步显现，尤其是资本密集行业和企业投资将继续受高利率和信贷条件收紧的影响。随着就业市场降温、收入放缓和消费信贷收紧，家庭消费可能逐步放缓。美联储可能在6月开始降息，全年降息1个百分点。在降息之后，实际利率依然显著超过实际中性利率，货币政策仍处于紧缩性状态。同时BTFP将在3月停止，银行体系将重新面临流动性压力，美联储可能会在3月开始给出是否缩减QT规模指引。', 'content': \"The U.S. service industry PMI fell slightly to 52.6 in February, slightly lower than market expectations. The U.S. service industry expanded for 14 consecutive months but the growth rate slowed down. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.8 in February, significantly lower than market expectations, and has been in contraction territory for 16 consecutive months. Although the manufacturing industry has fallen into a prolonged recession, the continued expansion of the service industry has supported the resilience of the U.S. economy. The employment indexes of both the service industry and manufacturing industry dropped sharply and entered the contraction range, indicating that the job market has cooled down and there is a downside risk to the February non-farm employment data. The service industry price index continued to expand, and the manufacturing price index rebounded above the boom-bust line in January and February, indicating a rebound in commodity prices. At present, core PCE inflation is still significantly higher than the Fed's target, and the unemployment rate is still significantly lower than the natural unemployment rate. We believe that the Fed is likely to maintain the current policy interest rate level, and will not initiate an interest rate cut cycle until employment and inflation data further cool down. As the tightening effect of high real interest rates further emerges, the economy may cool down significantly in the second quarter. We expect U.S. GDP growth to fall from 2.5% in 2023 to 1.4% in 2024. Slowing aggregate demand and supply chain recovery will push PCE inflation to fall from 3.7% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024. Nominal GDP growth The rate will drop from 6.2% in 2023 to 4% in 2024. The Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in June and cut interest rates by 1 percentage point throughout the year. After the interest rate cut, the actual interest rate is still significantly higher than the actual neutral interest rate, and monetary policy is still tightening. At the same time, the upcoming end of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) has also exposed the U.S. banking system to liquidity risks again. The Federal Reserve will meet in March. Discuss whether to slow down quantitative tightening (QT). It is expected that the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield will still fluctuate in the first half of the year, and will fall back in the second half of the year, falling to around 3.75% by the end of the year. The service PMI continued to expand but fell slightly, employment returned to contraction, and inflation fell slightly. The ISM services PMI fell slightly to 52.6 from 53.4 in January, slightly lower than market expectations of 53, maintaining expansion for 14 consecutive months. Among them, the business activity index rose from 55.8 to 57.2. The employment index fell to 48 from 50.5, indicating that February's non-farm payrolls data has downside risks. The report shows that labor costs have continued to rise, with the prices of contract workers and skilled workers rising for 6 and 2 consecutive months respectively, indicating that wage growth is still relatively high, dragging down service industry inflation. The new orders index continued to rise from 55 to 56.1, indicating that demand in the service industry remains strong. The inventory index continued to fall from 49.1 to 47.1, and the price index fell from 64 to 58.6, indicating that service inflation has slowed down. The supplier delivery index dropped from 52.4 to 48.9, and delivery times shortened. The new export orders index fell to 51.6 from 56.1, and the import index fell to 54.3 from 59.9. In terms of industries, fourteen industries including construction, retail, government services, medical health and social assistance, catering and accommodation, professional, scientific and technical services, and finance and insurance have expanded. Industries such as real estate and leasing and arts, entertainment and leisure are shrinking. According to historical experience, service industry PMI exceeding 49% indicates economic expansion. The services PMI of 52.6 in February corresponded to an annualized GDP growth rate of approximately 1.2%. The manufacturing PMI continued to shrink, and commodity prices rebounded. The manufacturing PMI fell from 49.1 in January to 47.8 in February, lower than market expectations and in contraction territory for 16 consecutive months. Among the major industries, seven have further contracted, including furniture, machinery, wood products, computers and electronic products, food and beverages, and cigarettes. Eight industries, including clothing, non-metallic mineral products, primary metals, plastics and rubber products, reported expansion, an increase of 4 from the previous month. The manufacturing output and new orders index fell sharply to 48.4 and 49.2 from 50.4 and 52.5 in January, indicating that production activity and demand have weakened. The inventory index dropped from 46.2 to 45.3, indicating that companies are speeding up destocking. The price index dropped slightly from 52.9 to 52.5, raw material prices continue to rebound, and the decline in PPI may narrow. The supplier delivery index rose to 50.1 from 49.1 in January, reflecting slower deliveries. The manufacturing employment index continued to fall, falling from 47.1 to 45.9, close to the low in the post-epidemic era. Export orders rebounded to 51.6, and import orders continued to rise to 53. Based on historical experience, a manufacturing PMI below 50 indicates contraction of the manufacturing industry, and a manufacturing PMI below 42.5 often indicates contraction of the overall economy. A manufacturing PMI value of 47.8 corresponds to a GDP growth rate of approximately 1.5%. The economy is slowing modestly and the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates in June. PMI data showed a moderate slowdown in the U.S. economy. Although the manufacturing industry fell into a prolonged recession, the continued expansion of the service industry supported the resilience of the U.S. economy. PMI's employment index points to a cooling of the job market, and February's non-farm payrolls data has downside risks. As inflation continues to fall and real interest rates have risen to historical highs, the restraint of monetary policy tightening on the economy will gradually become apparent. In particular, capital-intensive industries and corporate investment will continue to be affected by high interest rates and tightening credit conditions. Household consumption is likely to gradually slow as the job market cools, incomes slow and consumer credit tightens. The Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in June and cut interest rates by 1 percentage point throughout the year. After the interest rate cut, the actual interest rate is still significantly higher than the actual neutral interest rate, and monetary policy is still in a tightening state. At the same time, BTFP will stop in March, the banking system will face liquidity pressure again, and the Federal Reserve may begin to give guidance on whether to reduce the scale of QT in March.\", 'authorid': UUID('08f97a71-1879-5f33-a1aa-79c7a17d8bf9'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9477576147764921, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KSCEBOUGGLIRMNE7C9PMF39C3VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:57:13 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KSCEBOUGGLIRMNE7C9PMF39C3VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0494b940-a183-5776-9542-81acce99417e'), 'title': 'Comments on the 2024 Government Work Report: 5% higher quality, more positive policy orientation', 'author': 'Jin Shunrouzi, Zhu He', 'orgName': '国投安信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066669', 'orgSName': '国投安信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13FkRwzWDc7GD2evXSi/URvw=', 'researcher': '靳顺柔子,朱赫', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245957', '11000348531'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13FkRwzWDc7GD2evXSi/URvw=', 'site': 'SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投安信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625694460_1.pdf?1709752555000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625694460_1.pdf?1709752555000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on the 2024 Government Work Report: 5% higher quality, more positive policy orientation', 'originalAuthor': '靳顺柔子,朱赫', 'originalContent': '两会政府工作报告落地，重要的经济目标方面如下：GDP增长目标为5%左右，城镇新增就业1200万人以上，城镇调查失业率5.5%左右，居民消费价格涨幅3%左右。其中，5%的GDP目标符合预期，相比2023年保持不变。值得注意的是，2023年是基于2022年较低基数的情况下设定的增速目标，2024年面对一个更为正常化的基数，同样是“5%左右”意味着今年的增速目标有更高的要求，也体现了积极进取、奋发有为的政策取向。新增城镇就业目标继续维持在“1200万”的高位，显示出对就业问题的重视，当前的就业环境压力较大，较高的经济增长要求也有利于实现就业目标。“3%左右”的CPI增速目标维持不变，但加快物价企稳回升的重要性突显。和经济工作会议对应，政府工作报告将此前的“广义货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配”调整为“社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配”。综合来看，从宏观层面推动货币的活化以及扭转通缩预期或是今年宏观目标的抓手。从当前的形势的判断，提出了“世界经济增长动能不足,外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升，我国经济持续回升向好的基础还不稳固,有效需求不足,社会预期偏弱,国内大循环存在堵点,国际循环存在干扰”，即全球经济的压力对于国内经济而言依然可能会构成一定程度的逆风以及充分意识到在疫后经济复苏的过程中内需传导弱势的问题。从10大任务的排序上来看，将“大力推进现代化产业体系建设,加快发展新质生产力”排在第一位，体现出对于现代化产业建设的重视程度进一步上升，需处理好传统产业与新兴产业、未来产业的关系，随着我国新质生产力的路径逐步具象化，发展新质生产力是我国科技、产业突围的必然选择也将成为推动高质量发展的重要着力点，从全年来看，应持续对于产业政策进行关注。在财政与货币政策方面，财政政策力度较去年有所提升，今年的赤字率拟按3%安排，与去年持平；赤字规模为4.06万亿，高于去年1800亿元；专项债拟按3.9万亿安排，高于去年1000亿元；更重要是未来几年将连续发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，广义财政的扩张在中期具有一定持续性。整体来看今年积极的财政政策主调不变，“适度加力”这是由当前宏观经济有效需求不足、微观主体信心仍未根本提振的形势决定的，是顺应经济形势和经济工作目标的顺势而为。同时更加强调优化政策组合和支出效率，稳妥以及标本兼治化解债务风险，谋划新一轮财税体制改革是下阶段的重要任务。货币政策方面，政策基调延续“灵活适度、精准有效”，“保持流动性合理充裕”。我们预计2024年货币政策或进一步稳健宽松，降准降息仍有发力空间。除了稳增长、稳价格，值得一提的是，今年在货币政策方面还新添了增强资本市场内在稳定性，2月以来资本市场政策组合拳的回归成功地扭转了市场持续下跌的悲观预期，报告中这一表述意味着政策支���资本市场稳定将是今年的主基调，这有利于从稳金融到向实体经济的传导。总的来看，本次政府工作报告释放了积极信号，经济增长、通胀、就业等目标均符合预期，财政加力将成为增长目标实现的重要支撑。对于地产产业链而言，化解房地产风险仍是2024年工作重中之重，一视同仁支持不同所有制房企合理融资需求是重要抓手。2024年是疫后的第二年，疤痕效应逐渐消退，经济发展的积极因素在增多，本次政府工作报告高度强调信心的培育，同时强化科技含量更高下的高质量发展，具体表现为新质生产力成为重中之重。对比起中央经济工作会议，目前对“建设现代化产业体系”以及“发展新质生产力”的表述，新增了“大力”和“加快”二词，产业政策的重要性进一步凸显。未来或从以下几个方面把握宏观上的主要矛盾：第一，继续关注中东地缘局势的演变和对原油定价的影响，进入到Q2后在OPEC+在供给端的变化对于油价的影响又再度敏感，美联储目前管理通胀仍然较为平稳，尽管存在一些反弹迹象，但是尚未构成较大威胁，而一旦油价有突破当前震荡区间向上的趋势，那会对于Q2美联储管理通胀重新带来较大的不确定性，如果油价继续维持窄幅震荡格局，那么目前相对友好的美元金融条件仍有一定的延续性；第二，继续关注美联储在3月份行动的逻辑，经过1-2月份相对平稳的矫正，目前市场定价的2024年降息次数在4次左右，较年初的定价已经大幅修正，且首次降息的时间推迟到了6月份，在这个背景下，观察美联储是会维持12月份的基本判断从而延续维稳为主的思路，还是会继续基于经济的韧性释放出继续矫正降息预期的偏鹰思路；第三，关注国内前期经济政策向实体层面的政策信号，1月份金融数据强势，且M1增速大幅超预期，表明此前央行PSL的投放以及地产融资条件的放松开始修复企业部门的活期存款，但是向微观高频数据的传导比较缓慢，进入到3月份之后，临近旺季经济要开启弱反弹，跟踪政策的传导效果。两会时间窗口释放了积极的财政政策信号，在此前货币政策先行的基础上，关注后续财政政策节奏。展望后市运行，金融品方面，在汇率相对稳定的时间窗口，金融品在前期政策的驱动下估值修复明显，对于股指而言，在政策主动矫正了多空力量后出现了普涨格局，当前阶段处于大市值价值板块向成长板块扩散的阶段，货币层面M1增速的反弹，以及产业政策的频繁出台构成了催化，预计3月份市场将由普涨向震荡分化转化，节奏上成长小盘风格短期的补涨或与红利高股息板块一起构成两条轮动主线。国债而言，宽松预期背景下，市场的多头交易十分拥挤，新入投资者的加入带来市场波动的放大，预期三月份，利率市场牛市格局仍然保持，但是波动率会有明显的增大。对于大宗商品而言，目前政策预期和低库存对于商品有支撑，使得很多品种下跌空间有限，但是需求驱动目前较弱，旺季需求待验证，目前处于震荡格局下的品种相对较多，部分品种根据基本面修复的信号尝试性做多。', 'content': '两会政府工作报告落地，重要的经济目标方面如下：GDP增长目标为5%左右，城镇新增就业1200万人以上，城镇调查失业率5.5%左右，居民消费价格涨幅3%左右。其中，5%的GDP目标符合预期，相比2023年保持不变。值得注意的是，2023年是基于2022年较低基数的情况下设定的增速目标，2024年面对一个更为正常化的基数，同样是“5%左右”意味着今年的增速目标有更高的要求，也体现了积极进取、奋发有为的政策取向。新增城镇就业目标继续维持在“1200万”的高位，显示出对就业问题的重视，当前的就业环境压力较大，较高的经济增长要求也有利于实现就业目标。“3%左右”的CPI增速目标维持不变，但加快物价企稳回升的重要性突显。和经济工作会议对应，政府工作报告将此前的“广义货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配”调整为“社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配”。综合来看，从宏观层面推动货币的活化以及扭转通缩预期或是今年宏观目标的抓手。从当前的形势的判断，提出了“世界经济增长动能不足,外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升，我国经济持续回升向好的基础还不稳固,有效需求不足,社会预期偏弱,国内大循环存在堵点,国际循环存在干扰”，即全球经济的压力对于国内经济而言依然可能会构成一定程度的逆风以及充分意识到在疫后经济复苏的过程中内需传��弱势的问题。从10大任务的排序上来看，将“大力推进现代化产业体系建设,加快发展新质生产力”排在第一位，体现出对于现代化产业建设的重视程度进一步上升，需处理好传统产业与新兴产业、未来产业的关系，随着我国新质生产力的路径逐步具象化，发展新质生产力是我国科技、产业突围的必然选择也将成为推动高质量发展的重要着力点，从全年来看，应持续对于产业政策进行关注。在财政与货币政策方面，财政政策力度较去年有所提升，今年的赤字率拟按3%安排，与去年持平；赤字规模为4.06万亿，高于去年1800亿元；专项债拟按3.9万亿安排，高于去年1000亿元；更重要是未来几年将连续发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，广义财政的扩张在中期具有一定持续性。整体来看今年积极的财政政策主调不变，“适度加力”这是由当前宏观经济有效需求不足、微观主体信心仍未根本提振的形势决定的，是顺应经济形势和经济工作目标的顺势而为。同时更加强调优化政策组合和支出效率，稳妥以及标本兼治化解债务风险，谋划新一轮财税体制改革是下阶段的重要任务。货币政策方面，政策基调延续“灵活适度、精准有效”，“保持流动性合理充裕”。我们预计2024年货币政策或进一步稳健宽松，降准降息仍有发力空间。除了稳增长、稳价格，值得一提的是，今年在货币政策方面还新添了增强资本市场内在稳定性，2月以来资本市场政策组合拳的回归成功地扭转了市场持续下跌的悲观预期，报告中这一表述意味着政策支持资本市场稳定将是今年的主基调，这有利于从稳金融到向实体经济的传导。总的来看，本次政府工作报告释放了积极信号，经济增长、通胀、就业等目标均符合预期，财政加力将成为增长目标实现的重要支撑。对于地产产业链而言，化解房地产风险仍是2024年工作重中之重，一视同仁支持不同所有制房企合理融资需求是重要抓手。2024年是疫后的第二年，疤痕效应逐渐消退，经济发展的积极因素在增多，本次政府工作报告高度强调信心的培育，同时强化科技含量更高下的高质量发展，具体表现为新质生产力成为重中之重。对比起中央经济工作会议，目前对“建设现代化产业体系”以及“发展新质生产力”的表述，新增了“大力”和“加快”二词，产业政策的重要性进一步凸显。未来或从以下几个方面把握宏观上的主要矛盾：第一，继续关注中东地缘局势的演变和对原油定价的影响，进入到Q2后在OPEC+在供给端的变化对于油价的影响又再度敏感，美联储目前管理通胀仍然较为平稳，尽管存在一些反弹迹象，但是尚未构成较大威胁，而一旦油价有突破当前震荡区间向上的趋势，那会对于Q2美联储管理通胀重新带来较大的不确定性，如果油价继续维持窄幅震荡格局，那么目前相对友好的美元金融条件仍有一定的延续性；第二，继续关注美联储在3月份行动的逻辑，经过1-2月份相对平稳的矫正，目前市场定价的2024年降息次数在4次左右，较年初的定价已经大幅修正，且首次降息的时间推迟到了6月份，在这个背景下，观察美联储是会维持12月份的基本判断从而延续维稳为主的思路，还是会继续基于经济的韧性释放出继续矫正降息预期的偏鹰思路；第三，关注国内前期经济政策向实体层面的政策信号，1月份金融数据强势，且M1增速大幅超预期，表明此前央行PSL的投放以及地产融资条件的放松开始修复企业部门的活期存款，但是向微观高频数据的传导比较缓慢，进入到3月份之后，临近旺季经济要开启弱反弹，跟踪政策的传导效果。两会时间窗口释放了积极的财政政策信号，在此前货币政策先行的基础上，关注后续财政政策节奏。展望后市运行，金融品方面，在汇率相对稳定的时间窗口，金融品在前期政策的驱动下估值修复明显，对于股指而言，在政策主动矫正了多空力量后出现了普涨格局，当前阶段处于大市值价值板块向成长板块扩散的阶段，货币层面M1增速的反弹，以及产业政策的频繁出台构成了催化，预计3月份市场将由普涨向震荡分化转化，节奏上成长小盘风格短期的补涨或与红利高股息板块一起构成两条轮动主线。国债而言，宽松预期背景下，市场的多头交易十分拥挤，新入投资者的加入带来市场波动的放大，预期三月份，利率市场牛市格局仍然保持，但是波动率会有明显的增大。对于大宗商品而言，目前政策预期和低库存对于商品有支撑，使得很多品种下跌空间有限，但是需求驱动目前较弱，旺季需求待验证，目前处于震荡格局下的品种相对较多，部分品种根据基本面修复的信号尝试性做多。', 'authorid': UUID('15bfe5fa-f62b-5ed7-8e95-180a67c380da'), 'sentimentScore': 0.07436773553490639, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KJJ11LL4V54T1BPIBU9DV8MABVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:57:17 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KJJ11LL4V54T1BPIBU9DV8MABVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('cd9d3247-98a0-5469-b2a4-bb8044f0bf03'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the \"2024 Government Work Report\": in-depth advancement, high quality and new development', 'author': 'Ye Fan, Wang Runmeng, Liu Yanhong', 'orgName': '西南证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000296', 'orgSName': '西南证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13DxjHIbQitsBJP2DgUJ0Dkw=', 'researcher': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000263735', '11000418732', '11000440469'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13DxjHIbQitsBJP2DgUJ0Dkw=', 'site': 'Southwest Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '西南证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625694382_1.pdf?1709752876000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625694382_1.pdf?1709752876000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the \"2024 Government Work Report\": in-depth advancement, high quality and new development', 'originalAuthor': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'originalContent': '摘要经济增速合预期，新发展格局重“质量”和“安全”。今年经济增速目标定在5%左右，主要考虑到当前我国面临外部环境依然复杂严峻、国内有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱等问题，今年经济增长仍是“质量”与“安全”并举；本次政府工作报告强调“加快构建新发展格局，着力推动高质量发展”。预计2024年经济将延续复苏态势，或呈现出前稳后升态势。分项指标设定方面，消费价格、就业、通胀、粮食产量、财政赤字率等目标与2023年相比持平，地方政府专项债限额较上年增加，此外能耗设置具体量化目标。财政政策：预算设定体现“适度加力”，超长期特别国债拉开序幕。财政政策定调与去年12月份中央经济工作会议一致，在适度扩大支出、稳增长的同时，将加强财政纪律，提升财政资金的使用效率。赤字率设定在3%，与2023年初制定的预算赤字率相同，触及“警戒线”但并未突破。但从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。地方政府新增专项债限额拟安排为3.9万亿元，略高于2023年，体现出地方控杠杆、中央加杠杆的特点。货币政策：总量和结构工具均有发力空间，增强资本市场内在稳定性。货币政策“灵活适度、精准有效”，总量和结构型货币政策均有望发挥效力。总量型工具方面，会议指出“促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降”，预计后续年内仍有降准降息的空间，助力社会融资需求回稳向上，然而在节奏上或有政策统筹以及汇率等多方面考虑；结构性货币政策工具将更加精准、高效，发力重心将在五大篇文章、“三大工程”和民营经济等领域。此外，会议还提出“增强资本市场内在稳定性”，后续资本市场更多改革举措有望推出，主要从融资端、交易端、投资端三个方面着手。政府工作报告中的其他部署重点。部署一：新质生产力三个方面，产业链、新兴产业及数字经济。产业链供应链有两方面的侧重，其一延续之前重要会议中对科技创新能力提升的要求，其二是对中国品牌的倾斜。新兴产业方面，报告中更加明确新兴产业方向，建议重点关注量子技术、生命科学等前沿领域重点环节突破及国产化替代的投资机会。数字经济要“深化大数据、人工智能等研发应用，开展‘人工智能＋’行动，打造具有国际竞争力的数字产业集群”；部署二：扩内需在于促消费和扩投资双轮驱动。本次报告承接中央经济工作会议强调的“形成消费和投资相互促进的良性循环”，大宗消费的政策倾向力度或将更大，此外新型消费提供增长新动能，体育消费、数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费等进入发展快车道。投资方面，中央预算内投资拟安排7000亿元，对于部分传统基建以及新型基础设施建设的支持力度仍较大；部署三��持续优化房企融资环境，加速构建房地产新模式。会议提出“优化房地产政策，对不同所有制房地产企业合理融资需求要一视同仁给予支持”，未提“防止无序扩张”，当前需要通过需求端刺激和融资端优化等措施来避免风险进一步蔓延，同时还将加快构建房地产发展新模式，进一步加大保障性住房建设和供给。风险提示：逆全球化程度加深，国内复苏不及预期。', 'content': 'Summary: The economic growth rate is in line with expectations, and the new development pattern emphasizes \"quality\" and \"safety\". This year\\'s economic growth target is set at around 5%. Mainly considering that my country currently faces problems such as the still complex and severe external environment, insufficient domestic effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, and weak social expectations. This year\\'s economic growth is still a matter of \"quality\" and \" \"safety\" simultaneously; this government work report emphasizes \"accelerating the construction of a new development pattern and striving to promote high-quality development.\" It is expected that the economy will continue its recovery trend in 2024, or show a trend of stabilization and then growth. In terms of setting sub-indicators, targets such as consumer prices, employment, inflation, grain production, and fiscal deficit rates remain unchanged compared with 2023. The local government\\'s special debt limit has increased compared with the previous year. In addition, specific quantitative targets for energy consumption have been set. Fiscal policy: The budget setting reflects \"moderate strengthening\", and ultra-long-term special government bonds have kicked off. The tone of fiscal policy is consistent with the Central Economic Work Conference held in December last year. While appropriately expanding expenditures and stabilizing growth, fiscal discipline will be strengthened and the efficiency of the use of fiscal funds will be improved. The deficit rate is set at 3%, which is the same as the budget deficit rate established at the beginning of 2023, touching the \"warning line\" but not breaking through. However, starting from this year, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years, specifically for the implementation of major national strategies and the construction of security capabilities in key areas. This year, 1 trillion yuan will be issued first. The new special debt limit for local governments is planned to be 3.9 trillion yuan, slightly higher than that in 2023, reflecting the characteristics of local governments controlling leverage and the central government increasing leverage. Monetary policy: There is room for both aggregate and structural tools to enhance the inherent stability of the capital market. Monetary policy is \"flexible, appropriate, precise and effective\", and both aggregate and structural monetary policies are expected to be effective. In terms of aggregate tools, the meeting pointed out that \"the cost of comprehensive social financing will be stabilized and reduced.\" It is expected that there will still be room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in the following years to help social financing demand stabilize and improve. However, the pace may be affected by policy coordination and exchange rates. Consider multiple aspects; structural monetary policy tools will be more precise and efficient, and the focus will be on the five major articles, the \"three major projects\" and the private economy. In addition, the meeting also proposed \"enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market\", and more reform measures in the capital market are expected to be launched in the future, mainly from the three aspects of financing, trading and investment. Other deployment priorities in the government work report. Deployment 1: Three aspects of new productivity, industrial chain, emerging industries and digital economy. The industrial chain and supply chain focus on two aspects. One is the continuation of the requirements for improving technological innovation capabilities in previous important meetings, and the other is the tilt towards Chinese brands. In terms of emerging industries, the report further clarifies the direction of emerging industries and recommends focusing on breakthroughs in key links in frontier fields such as quantum technology and life sciences and investment opportunities for localized substitution. The digital economy must \"deepen the research and development applications of big data, artificial intelligence, etc., carry out the \\'artificial intelligence +\\' action, and create an internationally competitive digital industry cluster\"; Deployment 2: Expanding domestic demand lies in the two-wheel drive of promoting consumption and expanding investment. This report follows the Central Economic Work Conference’s emphasis on “forming a virtuous cycle in which consumption and investment promote each other.” The policy preference for bulk consumption may be stronger. In addition, new consumption provides new growth momentum, including sports consumption, digital consumption, green consumption, Healthy consumption and other industries have entered the fast lane of development. In terms of investment, 700 billion yuan is planned to be invested in the central budget, and support for some traditional infrastructure and new infrastructure construction is still relatively strong; deployment three: continue to optimize the financing environment for real estate companies and accelerate the construction of new real estate models. The meeting proposed to \"optimize real estate policies and provide equal support to the reasonable financing needs of real estate companies of different ownerships.\" It did not mention \"preventing disorderly expansion.\" At present, measures such as demand-side stimulation and financing-side optimization are needed to avoid further spread of risks, while also We will accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development and further increase the construction and supply of affordable housing. Risk warning: The degree of anti-globalization is deepening, and the domestic recovery is less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('d3389991-b216-5572-82e3-6396ad6aed04'), 'sentimentScore': 0.10833310335874557, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8AGJ18FQ9VR1SF3RE230J2VUU3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:57:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8AGJ18FQ9VR1SF3RE230J2VUU3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1df49a63-2528-5672-9955-242c286026c6'), 'title': 'Based on Tengjing AI high-frequency simulation and forecast: U.S. CPI in February remained unchanged or declined slightly year-on-year, or 3.1%', 'author': 'Wang Jingjia, Wu Wei', 'orgName': '北京腾景大数据应用科技研究院', 'orgCode': '81409778', 'orgSName': '腾景数研', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13D3k4aUj4umJQSgEdNAs22g=', 'researcher': '王景嘉,吴卫', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000453432', '11000422235'], 'count': 1, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13D3k4aUj4umJQSgEdNAs22g=', 'site': 'Beijing Tengjing Big Data Application Technology Research Institute', 'originalSite': '腾景数研', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625691484_1.pdf?1709753170000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625691484_1.pdf?1709753170000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Based on Tengjing AI high-frequency simulation and forecast: U.S. CPI in February remained unchanged or declined slightly year-on-year, or 3.1%', 'originalAuthor': '王景嘉,吴卫', 'originalContent': '本期要点：腾景宏观高频模拟显示，2月美国CPI同比维持不变或小幅下降，或为3.1%，继续维持高位。本月国际原油价格同比回升，拉动CPI能源项上行；商品项受二手车价格影响小幅下降，服务项与前值持平。分项来看，本月核心CPI同比预计为3.8%，较上月下降0.1个百分点；CPI能源同比继1月下降后出现回升，预计本月上升0.8个百分点至-3.8%；食品项本月依旧维持下降趋势，或为2.5%。2月汽油价格同比继1月下降后出现小幅回升，天然气价格同比继去年11月12月持续下降后出现回升。美国优质汽油零售价格同比下降3.56%。核心商品中二手车价格指数同比在小幅回升后再现下降趋势，同时核心服务中，业主等价租金同比和主要居所租金同比形成稳定回落态势，拉动核心通胀持续下行，但目前核心通胀降温速度缓慢。美国2月Markit制造业PMI初值升至51.5，高于预期50.7，创2022年10月以来新高，前值50.7；服务业PMI初值为51.3，低于预期52.3，创三个月新低，前值52.5。综合PMI初值为51.4，低于预期51.8，前值为52。美国2月消费者信心指数由1月的110.9降至106.7，继三个月的上升后出现下降。1月美国CPI增速超市场预期，同比增长3.1%，预期2.9%，前值3.4%；核心CPI同比增长3.9%，前值3.9%，高于预期3.7%。1月通胀中枢核心CPI受服务项韧性影响难以下降是CPI降速缓慢的主要原因。总体来看，2024年一季度美国CPI应处于持续放缓的状态，但由于核心通胀的强韧性，上半年预计回落缓慢，下半年稳定在2%附近仍有一定困难。', 'content': \"Highlights of this issue: Tengjing Macro’s high-frequency simulation shows that the U.S. CPI remained unchanged or dropped slightly year-on-year in February, or 3.1%, continuing to remain high. This month, the international crude oil price rebounded year-on-year, driving the CPI energy item upward; the commodity item fell slightly due to the price of second-hand cars, and the service item remained the same as the previous value. In terms of items, the core CPI this month is expected to be 3.8% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; CPI energy has rebounded year-on-year after falling in January, and is expected to rise 0.8 percentage points this month to -3.8%; food items this month Still maintaining a downward trend, or 2.5%. In February, gasoline prices rebounded slightly year-on-year after falling in January, and natural gas prices rebounded year-on-year after continuing to fall in November and December last year. The retail price of premium gasoline in the United States fell by 3.56% year-on-year. Among core commodities, the second-hand car price index has resumed a downward trend after a slight rebound year-on-year. At the same time, among core services, the owner's equivalent rent and the rent of main residence have formed a steady downward trend, driving core inflation to continue to decline. However, the current cooling rate of core inflation is slow. The preliminary value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in February rose to 51.5, higher than the expected 50.7, a new high since October 2022, and the previous value was 50.7; the initial value of the services PMI was 51.3, lower than the expected 52.3, a three-month low, and the previous value was 51.3. Value 52.5. The initial composite PMI value was 51.4, lower than the expected 51.8, and the previous value was 52. The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 106.7 in February from 110.9 in January, falling after rising for three months. In January, U.S. CPI growth exceeded market expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, compared with the expected 2.9%, and the previous value of 3.4%; core CPI increased by 3.9% year-on-year, with the previous value of 3.9%, higher than the expected 3.7%. The main reason for the slow decline in CPI was that the core CPI, the center of inflation, was difficult to decline due to the resilience of service items in January. Overall, U.S. CPI should continue to slow down in the first quarter of 2024. However, due to the strong resilience of core inflation, it is expected to fall slowly in the first half of the year, and it will still be difficult to stabilize around 2% in the second half of the year.\", 'authorid': UUID('b71ecaa2-e5e6-5d89-ad06-c113fd47f681'), 'sentimentScore': -0.775084063410759, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'O5QQPHMPFGSNH2IT3C4FL52TQVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:57:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'O5QQPHMPFGSNH2IT3C4FL52TQVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('52d7b23c-179d-5d54-a73b-2c131362e61b'), 'title': 'Comments on the 2024 Government Work Report: Economic growth target remains unchanged, focusing on high-quality development', 'author': 'Yu Tianxu', 'orgName': '万联证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000187', 'orgSName': '万联证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13Gij1o75QUnjtUgHZHaNA+g=', 'researcher': '于天旭', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000348537'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13Gij1o75QUnjtUgHZHaNA+g=', 'site': 'Wanlian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '万联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625674930_1.pdf?1709745416000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625674930_1.pdf?1709745416000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on the 2024 Government Work Report: Economic growth target remains unchanged, focusing on high-quality development', 'originalAuthor': '于天旭', 'originalContent': '事件：2024年3月4-5日十四届全国人大二次会议、全国政协十四届二次会议在北京召开，公布2024年政府工作报告。2024年GDP增速目标设置在5%左右。经济增速目标与2023年持平，失业率5.5%左右，CPI目标3%左右，均保持不变。经济保持5%的增速需要积极的财政政策带动，经济大省将起到“挑大梁”的作用。有效需求不足的问题也需要解决，内需恢复需要更多推力。报告提及外部环境不确定性上行，国际循环存在干扰，出口环境也需要政策呵护。政策表态上体现了稳增长的决心和力度，高质量发展重视度明显抬升。财政政策适度加力、提质增效，财政投放增加有望拉动国内需求：1）赤字率拟按3%安排，相对克制。2024年赤字规模4.06万亿元，较2023年年初预算增加1800亿元。2）超长期特备国债将常态化发行。2024年将发行1万亿元，不计入赤字，未来将持续投向国家重大战略实施和安全领域建设。逐步推进“去土地财政化”，推进向高质量发展转型。3）财政资金使用上注重可持续性。政策首次提及“严控一��性支出”，财政资金在项目投向上将更加严格和注重效率。4）中央向地方财政的下沉机制预期将持续，省级财政兜底。中央财政加大对地方转移支付力度，地方财政注重提效，省级政府推动财力下沉。专项债额度增长，新增专项债额度预期向经济大省倾斜。对于广义财政包含的地方专项债方面，目标发行规模3.9万亿元，2023年目标为3.8万亿元。专项债投向领域有望继续扩容，政策提出“额度分配向项目准备充分、投资效率较高的地区倾斜”，预期经济大省将为主要方向。货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效，未来将配合财政政策保持宽松：1）推动社会融资成本稳中有降，全面降息依然可期。降息过程中为了缓解银行息差压力，存款利率仍有进一步调降的可能。2）信贷投放优化结构，重视盘活存量。2023年四季度货币政策报告提出信贷“高质量投放”，并强调“盘活低效存量金融资源”，未来将做好五大篇章的相关工作。3）关注价格调控相关政策。我国CPI处于相对低位，有效需求不足的问题依然存在，政策提及社融、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配。未来扩内需政策有望陆续出台。首提“加快发展新质生产力”，对科创的重视度持续提升。焦数字经济、新兴产业和未来产业发展，将进一步巩固新能源汽车产业链优势，对于人工智能、数字经济、量子技术等产业政策有望加码，会议新增了“氢能、新材料、创新药”方向，科创领域稳固已有行业优势和开辟新的赛道并行。在经济高质量发展驱动、海外不确定性提升的背景下，本次会议产业政策的重要性进一步提高，科教兴国战略将辅助产业创新发展。推动设备更新和技术改造来扩内需。推动生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造有助于拉动内需，设备更新换代也有助于降低碳排放，符合绿色可持续发展的目标。中央财经委员会第四次会议提出“研究大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新”、“有效降低全社会物流成本”，未来重点行业设备、建筑和市政基础设施领域设备、交运设备、老旧农业机械、教育医疗设备更新改造有望推进，开展汽车、家电等消费品以旧换新。着力化解房地产风险，构建“三大工程”为主体的地产新发展模式。地产依然是风险化解的重要方向，政策将推进“租售并举”的保障房建设，城中村改造接力建筑、地产链条，平急两用设施有助于拉动基建投资建设，盘活城市资源。PSL资金、央行专项工具和政策性银行专项借款将为“三大工程”提供资金支持。政策提及满足地产企业的流动性融资需求，预期将加快推进并落实地方地产项目融资的白名单制度。持续缓解地方政府债务风险。地方化债背景下，对于地方政府债务融资平台管控将继续强化。政策也提到地方化债的风险防控长效机制在于监管体系建设，推进地方融资平台转型，化债将持续从时间换空间。继续培育外贸新动能，深化对外开放合作。出口依然是我国经济重要的拉力。会议提及了“全面取消制造业领域外资准入限制措施，放宽电信、医疗等服务市场准入”，更大力度的吸引和利用外资的政策有望出台，“一带一路”仍是重要战略布局方向。扩大高水平开放，稳定海外投资者信心。风险因素：内需修复不及预期，美联储降息节奏和幅度变动超预期，地缘政治风险加剧。', 'content': 'Event: The second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress and the second session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People\\'s Political Consultative Conference were held in Beijing on March 4-5, 2024, to announce the 2024 Government Work Report. The GDP growth target for 2024 is set at around 5%. The economic growth target is the same as in 2023, the unemployment rate is around 5.5%, and the CPI target is around 3%, both of which remain unchanged. Maintaining an economic growth rate of 5% requires active fiscal policies, and provinces with major economies will play a leading role. The problem of insufficient effective demand also needs to be solved, and the recovery of domestic demand needs more push. The report mentioned that uncertainty in the external environment is rising, there is interference in the international cycle, and the export environment also needs policy care. The policy stance reflects the determination and strength to stabilize growth, and the emphasis on high-quality development has increased significantly. Fiscal policy will be moderately strengthened to improve quality and efficiency, and increased fiscal investment is expected to boost domestic demand: 1) The deficit rate is planned to be set at 3%, which is relatively restrained. The deficit in 2024 will be 4.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 180 billion yuan from the budget at the beginning of 2023. 2) Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued on a regular basis. 1 trillion yuan will be issued in 2024, not included in the deficit, and will continue to be invested in the implementation of major national strategies and the construction of security fields in the future. Gradually promote the “de-fiscalization of land” and promote the transition to high-quality development. 3) Pay attention to sustainability in the use of fiscal funds. The policy mentions \"strict control of general expenditures\" for the first time, and fiscal funds will be more stringent and focus on efficiency in project investment. 4) The transfer mechanism from the central government to local finance is expected to continue, with provincial finance taking the bottom line. The central government has increased transfer payments to local governments, local governments have focused on improving efficiency, and provincial governments have promoted the sinking of financial resources. The quota of special bonds has increased, and the quota of new special bonds is expected to be tilted towards provinces with large economies. For local special bonds included in broad fiscal finance, the target issuance scale is 3.9 trillion yuan, and the target in 2023 is 3.8 trillion yuan. The field of special bond investment is expected to continue to expand. The policy proposes that \"the allocation of quotas will be tilted towards areas with sufficient project preparation and high investment efficiency.\" It is expected that economically large provinces will be the main direction. Monetary policy must be flexible, appropriate, precise and effective, and will remain loose in conjunction with fiscal policy in the future: 1) Promote social financing costs to stabilize and decline, and comprehensive interest rate cuts are still expected. In order to ease the pressure on bank interest margins during the interest rate reduction process, there is still the possibility of further reductions in deposit interest rates. 2) Optimize the structure of credit extension and pay attention to revitalizing the stock. The monetary policy report for the fourth quarter of 2023 proposed \"high-quality lending\" of credit and emphasized \"revitalizing inefficient existing financial resources\". In the future, relevant work will be done in five major chapters. 3) Pay attention to policies related to price control. my country\\'s CPI is at a relatively low level, and the problem of insufficient effective demand still exists. The policy mentions social financing and money supply to match the expected goals of economic growth and price levels. Policies to expand domestic demand are expected to be introduced one after another in the future. First of all, \"accelerating the development of new productive forces\" is mentioned, and the emphasis on scientific and technological innovation continues to increase. Focusing on the digital economy, emerging industries and future industrial development will further consolidate the advantages of the new energy vehicle industry chain. Industrial policies for artificial intelligence, digital economy, quantum technology and other industries are expected to increase. The conference added \"hydrogen energy, new materials, innovative drugs\" In the field of scientific and technological innovation, we should consolidate existing industry advantages and open up new tracks in parallel. In the context of high-quality economic development and rising overseas uncertainties, the importance of industrial policies at this meeting has further increased. The strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education will assist industrial innovation and development. Promote equipment updates and technological transformation to expand domestic demand. Promoting the updating and technological transformation of production equipment and service equipment will help stimulate domestic demand, and the upgrading of equipment will also help reduce carbon emissions, in line with the goal of green and sustainable development. The fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to \"study large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods\" and \"effectively reduce the logistics cost of the whole society\". In the future, key industry equipment, construction and municipal infrastructure equipment, transportation equipment, old agricultural machinery, The upgrading of educational and medical equipment is expected to advance, and consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances will be traded in for new ones. Efforts will be made to resolve real estate risks and build a new real estate development model with \"three major projects\" as the main body. Real estate is still an important direction for risk resolution. Policies will promote the construction of affordable housing that promotes both renting and selling. Urban village renovation relay buildings and real estate chains, as well as leisure and emergency facilities, will help stimulate infrastructure investment and construction and revitalize urban resources. PSL funds, central bank special tools and policy bank special borrowings will provide financial support for the “three major projects”. The policy mentions meeting the liquidity financing needs of real estate companies, and is expected to accelerate the promotion and implementation of a whitelist system for local real estate project financing. Continue to mitigate local government debt risks. In the context of localized debt, control over local government debt financing platforms will continue to be strengthened. The policy also mentions that the long-term mechanism for risk prevention and control of localized debt lies in the construction of a regulatory system and the promotion of the transformation of local financing platforms. The localized debt will continue to change time for space. Continue to cultivate new momentum for foreign trade and deepen opening-up and cooperation. Exports remain an important driving force for our country\\'s economy. The meeting mentioned the \"comprehensive abolition of restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector and the relaxation of market access for telecommunications, medical and other service markets.\" Greater policies to attract and utilize foreign investment are expected to be introduced, and the \"One Belt, One Road\" remains an important strategic direction. . Expand high-level opening up and stabilize the confidence of overseas investors. Risk factors: Domestic demand recovery is less than expected, the pace and magnitude of the Fed\\'s interest rate cuts have changed beyond expectations, and geopolitical risks have intensified.', 'authorid': UUID('f09132a4-2048-5601-aef1-20be35dfd0c9'), 'sentimentScore': 0.13492830470204353, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'MH9EG3MN2RLSCUU7BSU8TAHVG7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:57:52 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'MH9EG3MN2RLSCUU7BSU8TAHVG7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('fd6dd991-4ab6-5e71-9e03-e09c816eb124'), 'title': 'Macro: Uncertainty in a “global election year”', 'author': 'Song Xuetao', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13Ml4ksIEIitjFMavGyVM/3s=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13Ml4ksIEIitjFMavGyVM/3s=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625674927_1.pdf?1709741772000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625674927_1.pdf?1709741772000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro: Uncertainty in a “global election year”', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛', 'originalContent': '美国总统大选是全球最重要的政治事件之一，大选前景增加了市场的不确定性。目前民意调查结果显示，两方支持率接近，也各有优势，结果难分伯仲。我们认为俄乌战争的形势或与美国大选有关。如果特朗普当选，“保护主义”政策或依然是他极为显著的标签，同时政策的不确定性或更强。风险提示：美国大选结果超预期，政策预判存在偏差，对中美关系判断存在偏差', 'content': 'The U.S. presidential election is one of the most important political events in the world, and the prospect of the election has increased market uncertainty. Current opinion poll results show that the support rates of the two parties are close, and each has its own advantages. The results are indistinguishable. We believe that the situation of the Russia-Ukraine war may be related to the US election. If Trump is elected, \"protectionist\" policies may still be his most prominent label, and policy uncertainty may become stronger. Risk warning: The results of the U.S. election exceeded expectations, policy predictions were biased, and judgments on Sino-U.S. relations were biased.', 'authorid': UUID('e546a080-7eae-5a16-8b31-ee315393fe93'), 'sentimentScore': -0.08921127021312714, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '0DKOEO1PLF7KLPGPANIH63HOGRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:57:54 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '0DKOEO1PLF7KLPGPANIH63HOGRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('4ee81e6f-f3d8-5ec6-9962-c452f7276941'), 'title': 'Comments on the 2024 Government Work Report: Pay equal attention to new productivity and stable growth', 'author': 'Shen Xiayi, Chen Guowen', 'orgName': '联储证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80036123', 'orgSName': '联储证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13EAIe8s6NkvyHtYCKbpNXjA=', 'researcher': '沈夏宜,陈国文', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000444136', '11000446851'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13EAIe8s6NkvyHtYCKbpNXjA=', 'site': 'Fed Securities, Inc.', 'originalSite': '联储证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625674928_1.pdf?1709745416000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625674928_1.pdf?1709745416000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on the 2024 Government Work Report: Pay equal attention to new productivity and stable growth', 'originalAuthor': '沈夏宜,陈国文', 'originalContent': '事件：2024年3月5日上午9时，国务院总理李强在十四届全国人大二次会议上作政府工作报告。报告中明确了2024年总体目标，财政政策和货币政策逆周期、跨周期调节的基调，以及稳定增长发力点等内容总体目标方面，明确了2024年GDP增速为5%左右的增长目标，城镇新增就业1200万人以上，失业率为5.5%左右，居民消费价格涨幅为3%左右。重点工作领域聚焦推进现代化产业体系建设，发展新质生产力，推进高质量发展，通过促消费和扩投资来促进内需，对内改革，扩大高水平开放，化解风险，乡村振兴，城乡融合发展，绿色低碳发展和改善民生。财政政策适度加力。财政发力主要表现在赤字规模增加，财政支出增加地方专项债规模增加，以及发行超长期特别国债等方面，体现出中央加杠杆意愿提升，广义财政赤字扩大等特点。货币政策灵活，强调精准有效。报告提出社融、货币供给增速与增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配，降低社会融资成本。要求货币政策要有效作用于支持重大战略、领域和薄弱环节，畅通货币政策传导机制，增强资本市场内在稳定性，保持汇率稳定，做好金融五篇大文章，满足中小企业融资。稳增长的主要着力点在于促消费，扩投资和更高水平开放。消费方面须推进智能家居，文娱旅游，体育赛事，国货“潮品”，新能源汽车，电子产品等消费。投资重点支持科技创新，新型基础设施，节能减排领域，民生薄弱领域，抗灾基建领域，生产和服务设备更新等领域。扩大高水平对外开放强调外资、外贸、“一带一路”和区域合作的重要作用。风险提示：经济复苏偏离预期风险，政策效果不达预期风险。', 'content': 'Event: At 9 a.m. on March 5, 2024, Premier Li Qiang delivered a government work report at the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress. The report clarified the overall goals for 2024, the tone of counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustments of fiscal and monetary policies, and the driving force for stable growth. It also clarified the growth target of a GDP growth rate of about 5% in 2024. More than 12 million new urban jobs have been created, the unemployment rate is about 5.5%, and the consumer price increase is about 3%. Key work areas focus on promoting the construction of a modern industrial system, developing new productive forces, promoting high-quality development, promoting domestic demand through promoting consumption and expanding investment, internal reform, expanding high-level opening up, defusing risks, rural revitalization, integrated urban and rural development, and green low-carbon development and improving people’s livelihood. Fiscal policy will be moderately stepped up. Fiscal efforts are mainly reflected in the increase in the size of the deficit, the increase in fiscal expenditures, the increase in the scale of local special bonds, and the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, which reflect the central government\\'s increased willingness to increase leverage and the expansion of broad fiscal deficits. The monetary policy is flexible and emphasizes precision and effectiveness. The report proposes that the growth rate of social financing and money supply should match the expected goals of growth and price levels, and reduce social financing costs. It requires monetary policy to effectively support major strategies, fields and weak links, smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism, enhance the inherent stability of the capital market, maintain exchange rate stability, and do five major financial tasks to meet the financing requirements of small and medium-sized enterprises. The main focus of stabilizing growth is to promote consumption, expand investment and open up to a higher level. In terms of consumption, it is necessary to promote the consumption of smart homes, entertainment and tourism, sports events, domestic \"trendy products\", new energy vehicles, electronic products, etc. Investment focuses on supporting technological innovation, new infrastructure, energy conservation and emission reduction, weak areas of people\\'s livelihood, disaster-resistant infrastructure, production and service equipment updates and other fields. Expanding high-level opening up emphasizes the important role of foreign investment, foreign trade, the “Belt and Road Initiative” and regional cooperation. Risk warning: The risk of economic recovery deviating from expectations and the risk of policy effects not meeting expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('20de0085-8a7b-52a4-831e-0f4fdc3e344c'), 'sentimentScore': 0.1379626151174307, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3R2SHQQKK0AJ508AFJR4CMHTNFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:57:56 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3R2SHQQKK0AJ508AFJR4CMHTNFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0ec60fcc-5cf1-5321-aa2b-2f61e8afeb90'), 'title': 'International Macroeconomic Information Biweekly Report', 'author': 'Du Lingxuan, Wang Jialu, Yu Jia, Zhang Jingxin, Yi Cheng, Fang Heyang, Li Zemian', 'orgName': '中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80002154', 'orgSName': '中诚信国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13Kekf9irKlmJGhQG2C+1x4c=', 'researcher': '杜凌轩,王家璐,于嘉,张晶鑫,易成,方菏阳,李泽冕', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000270344', '11000284640', '11000288237', '11000288238', '11000408032', '11000444044', '11000456832'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13Kekf9irKlmJGhQG2C+1x4c=', 'site': 'China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中诚信国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625672216_1.pdf?1709745240000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625672216_1.pdf?1709745240000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'International Macroeconomic Information Biweekly Report', 'originalAuthor': '杜凌轩,王家璐,于嘉,张晶鑫,易成,方菏阳,李泽冕', 'originalContent': '热点评级韩国 2 月出口同比增 4.8%连增五个月马来西亚令吉跌至 26 年来新低 央行随时准备干预令吉汇率经济巴以冲突导致以色列 2023 年第四季度经济萎缩 20%乌克兰政府将推出“乌克兰制造” 补贴计划新加坡 2 月制造业 PMI 下降 0.1 至 50.6 电子业连续四个月扩张越南 2 月 CPI 指数同比上涨 3.98%泰国： 近 15 万人参加减债计划南非 1 月份实得工资持续增长 企业清算数量大幅增长土耳其央行宣布将基准利率维持在 45%巴西 2023 年国内生产总值增长 2.9%财政美国政府暂时避免停摆 临时拨款或成常态意大利 GDP 小幅增长 但赤字率超出预期南非 2023 年税收收入低于预算 财政部将实施全球最低企业税并通过央行应急储备账户减轻债务压力政治美国制裁 93 家助俄实体 16 家来自土耳其葡萄牙腐败丑闻为提前大选增加变数 利好民粹主义候选人印尼就加入 OECD 展开磋商 朝跻身发达国家愿景迈进巴基斯坦新一届国民议会成立 夏巴兹· 谢里夫当选新一任总理国际收支2024 年全球天然气需求预计增长 3%普京力挺土耳其成能源伙伴 批评欧洲抵制中国接受巴基斯坦 20 亿美元贷款延期请求2023 年泰国外资投资总额为 6632.39 亿泰铢2023 年南非农产品出口额再创新高 太阳能进口额大幅增长ESG印度煤炭行业产量和需求大幅跃升中东地区在人工智能领域的投资及技能提升方面处于领先地位主权信用标普将葡萄牙主权信用评级由 BBB+调至 A- 展望维持正面惠誉将捷克共和国展望由负面调整为稳定 维持 AA-主权信用评级', 'content': 'Hot Ratings South Korea\\'s February exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year for five consecutive months. The Malaysian ringgit fell to a 26-year low. The central bank is ready to intervene in the ringgit exchange rate. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict will cause Israel\\'s economy to shrink by 20% in the fourth quarter of 2023. The Ukrainian government will launch \"Made in Ukraine\" \"Subsidy Plan Singapore\\'s manufacturing PMI fell 0.1 to 50.6 in February. The electronics industry expanded for four consecutive months. Vietnam\\'s February CPI index rose 3.98% year-on-year. Thailand: Nearly 150,000 people participated in the debt reduction plan. South Africa\\'s take-home wages continued to grow in January. The number of corporate liquidations Significant growth Turkey\\'s central bank announced that it will maintain the benchmark interest rate at 45%. Brazil\\'s GDP will grow by 2.9% in 2023. The U.S. government has temporarily avoided a shutdown. Temporary appropriations may become the norm. Italy\\'s GDP has grown slightly, but the deficit rate exceeds expectations. South Africa\\'s tax revenue in 2023 is lower than budgeted. The Treasury Department will implement the world\\'s lowest corporate tax and reduce debt pressure through the central bank\\'s emergency reserve account. Politics: The United States sanctions 93 entities aiding Russia, 16 from Turkey. The Portuguese corruption scandal adds variables to early elections and favors populist candidates. Indonesia begins consultations on joining the OECD and is heading towards the top. The vision of developed countries moves forward. Pakistan\\'s new National Assembly is established. Shahbaz Sharif is elected as the new prime minister. Balance of payments: Global natural gas demand is expected to grow by 3% in 2024. Putin supports Turkey as an energy partner and criticizes Europe for boycotting China\\'s acceptance of Pakistan\\'s $2 billion loan extension Requests Total foreign investment in Thailand in 2023 is 663.239 billion baht South Africa’s agricultural exports hit new highs in 2023 Solar energy imports surge ESG India’s coal industry output and demand jump sharply Middle East leads in investment and skills improvement in artificial intelligence Sovereignty Credit Standard & Poor\\'s revised Portugal\\'s sovereign credit rating to A- from BBB+ and maintained a positive outlook. Fitch revised the Czech Republic\\'s outlook to stable from negative and maintained its AA- sovereign credit rating.', 'authorid': UUID('a2c4b698-a492-5220-beba-42486291b20f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9329596552997828, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8LEACLVCH457KKD2VCKN8GK837VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:57:59 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8LEACLVCH457KKD2VCKN8GK837VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('645ae5f2-3fa2-530e-9ba4-e03c1a649950'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the 2024 Government Work Report: High Goals, High Quality', 'author': 'You Chunye', 'orgName': '五矿证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000133', 'orgSName': '五矿证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13AvgcNhFKDnoUW/T3aVxiKY=', 'researcher': '尤春野', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000272834'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13AvgcNhFKDnoUW/T3aVxiKY=', 'site': 'Minmetals Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '五矿证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625670531_1.pdf?1709735846000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625670531_1.pdf?1709735846000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the 2024 Government Work Report: High Goals, High Quality', 'originalAuthor': '尤春野', 'originalContent': '报告摘要肯定成绩，直面困难。2024年政府工作报告是本届政府首次向全国人大报告政府工作。报告首先肯定了过去一年所取得的成就：2023年中国GDP增长5.2%，超额完成了“5%左右”的增长目标。新增城镇就业人口和失业率也顺利完成目标。同时也指出当前中国经济面临的困难。拉动有效需求、扭转社会预期、化解风险隐患、扶助中小企业经营、扩大居民就业等方面将是未来政府工作的重要方向。经济目标较高，政策发力可期。对于2024年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向，报告将今年GDP预期目标定在5%左右，与去年相同。因为2022年存在疫情冲击带来的低基数效应，所以2023年经济实现5%以上的增速并不困难。以两年平均增速来衡量，2023年GDP两年平均增速只有4.1%。这一数值显然低于当前中国经济的潜在增速的，即去年经济的动能并不强，而这一现状至今还未出现根本性的扭转。在这种惯性下今年要实现5%的目标并不容易。我们认为今年在5%的目标的指引下，政策有望更加积极，经济动能和市场信心也有望改善。对于宏观政策的安排分为三个方面，一是积极的财政政策，二是稳健的货币政策，三是加强政策工具创新和协调配合。尽管赤字率安排并未突破3%，但今年广义财政的力度不算弱。4.06万亿的赤字预算、3.9万亿的专项债加上1万亿的特别国债，再考虑到目前正在持续释放的PSL准财政工具，总体力度已经较强。货币政策将资本市场的稳定列入到考量中来，体现出高层对资本市场稳定的重视。我们认为随着高层反复强调“增强宏观政策取向一致性”，未来一段时间内收缩性政策会非常谨慎，有助于逐步稳定市场预期。高质量发展是政府工作的核心任务。对于2024年政府工作任务，报告分成十个部分，分别是发展新质生产力、科教兴国、扩内需、深化改革、扩大开放、安全及防风险、乡村振兴、城乡和区域协调发展、绿色低碳、民生。相比于2023年的工作任务，2024年将“现代化体系建设”从第二位提高到第一位，并重申了“新质生产力”；增添了“科教兴国”和“城乡和区域协调发展”两方面内容。总的来说，对于“高质量发展”、科技的重视程度进一步提升。制造业设备更新和升级、消费以旧换新等方面的政策值得期待。风险提示：政策不及预期。', 'content': 'The report summary affirms achievements and faces difficulties head on. The 2024 Government Work Report is the first time this government has reported government work to the National People\\'s Congress. The report first affirms the achievements made in the past year: China\\'s GDP will grow by 5.2% in 2023, exceeding the growth target of \"around 5%\". The new urban employment population and unemployment rate also successfully met the targets. At the same time, it also pointed out the difficulties currently faced by China\\'s economy. Stimulating effective demand, reversing social expectations, resolving hidden risks, supporting the operation of small and medium-sized enterprises, and expanding residents\\' employment will be important directions for future government work. The economic goals are relatively high and policy efforts can be expected. Regarding the overall requirements and policy orientation for economic and social development in 2024, the report sets the expected GDP target for this year at around 5%, the same as last year. Because there will be a low base effect brought about by the impact of the epidemic in 2022, it will not be difficult for the economy to achieve a growth rate of more than 5% in 2023. Measured by the two-year average growth rate, the two-year average GDP growth rate in 2023 is only 4.1%. This value is obviously lower than the current potential growth rate of China\\'s economy, that is, the economic momentum last year was not strong, and this status quo has not yet been fundamentally reversed. It is not easy to achieve the 5% target this year under this inertia. We believe that this year, under the guidance of the 5% target, policies are expected to be more proactive, and economic momentum and market confidence are also expected to improve. Arrangements for macro policies are divided into three aspects: first, proactive fiscal policy, second, prudent monetary policy, and third, strengthening innovation and coordination of policy tools. Although the deficit ratio arrangement has not exceeded 3%, the strength of the general fiscal year this year is not weak. With a deficit budget of 4.06 trillion, special bonds of 3.9 trillion, and special national debt of 1 trillion, and taking into account the PSL quasi-fiscal tools that are currently being released continuously, the overall strength is already strong. Monetary policy takes the stability of the capital market into consideration, reflecting the high-level emphasis on the stability of the capital market. We believe that as high-level leaders repeatedly emphasize \"enhancing the consistency of macro policy orientations\", contractionary policies will be very cautious in the coming period, which will help gradually stabilize market expectations. High-quality development is the core task of government work. Regarding the government work tasks in 2024, the report is divided into ten parts, namely developing new productive forces, rejuvenating the country through science and education, expanding domestic demand, deepening reform, expanding opening up, security and risk prevention, rural revitalization, coordinated urban-rural and regional development, green and low-carbon, people\\'s livelihood. Compared with the work tasks in 2023, \"modern system construction\" will be raised from the second to the first place in 2024, and \"new quality productivity\" will be reiterated; \"rejuvenating the country through science and education\" and \"coordinated development of urban, rural and regional areas\" will be added Two aspects of content. In general, the emphasis on \"high-quality development\" and technology has been further enhanced. Policies on updating and upgrading manufacturing equipment and replacing old ones with new ones are worth looking forward to. Risk warning: The policy does not meet expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('46773c39-b9dc-5860-883e-97ccc48708db'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9157593753188848, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OCUTUN8T55NA2I0FE5RA6SDQLVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:58:02 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OCUTUN8T55NA2I0FE5RA6SDQLVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "IncompleteRead(1254 bytes read, 39241 more expected)\n", - "{'id': UUID('88c47109-fb71-56df-9cfc-e2271c819994'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the key points of the 2024 Government Work Report: How to understand the growth target of “around 5.0%” and fiscal and monetary policy arrangements in 2024?', 'author': 'Wang Qing, Feng Lin', 'orgName': '东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司', 'orgCode': '80117870', 'orgSName': '东方金诚', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13BbBEDFg9TZT+6+uir/C6y4=', 'researcher': '王青,冯琳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000265644', '11000282735'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13BbBEDFg9TZT+6+uir/C6y4=', 'site': 'Oriental Jincheng International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东方金诚', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625670220_1.pdf?1709737258000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625670220_1.pdf?1709737258000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the key points of the 2024 Government Work Report: How to understand the growth target of “around 5.0%” and fiscal and monetary policy arrangements in 2024?', 'originalAuthor': '王青,冯琳', 'originalContent': '2024年3月5日，国务院总理李强代表国务院向十四届全国人大一次会议作《政府工作报告》（以下简称“《报告》”）。报告提出了2024年主要经济预期目标，并对重大宏观政策做出安排部署。对此，我们做如下要点解读：一、2024年GDP增速目标设定为“5.0%左右”，与去年增速目标持平，也与去年5.2%的实际增长水平相近，符合市场预期。去年12月中央经济工作会议在继续强调“稳中求进”的基础上，首次提出“以进促稳”。这意味着保持中高速增长水平受到进一步重视，2024年两会政府工作报告继续设定“5.0%左右”的经济增长目标，符合普遍预期。实际上，考虑到基数因素影响，今年实现“5.0%左右”的经济增长，意味着实际经济增长动能要强于去年。我们认为，今年之所以设定这一增长目标，主要有以下考虑：一方面，当前及未来一段时间，我国具备5.0%-6.0%的经济增长潜力，而这也是在2021-35年“实现经济总量或人均收入翻一番”的基本要求。更重要的是，当前保持5.0%左右的中高速增长水平，能够为保障民生就业、维护金融稳定、化解地方债务风险提供基础保障，为加快建设现代产业体系，扎实推进高质量发展提供有利的环境。最后，这一增速目标与此前国内外各类机构的判断基本一致，有助于稳定市场预期。我们预计，2024年居民消费有望继续恢复，加之宏观政策仍将保持一定稳增长力度，今年经济实际增长水平有望达到5.0%左右。2023年宏观政策的重点是以科技创新引领现代化产业体系建设，大力促进民营经济发展壮大，经济内生增长动力有望进一步加强。', 'content': 'On March 5, 2024, Premier Li Qiang delivered the \"Government Work Report\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Report\") to the First Session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress on behalf of the State Council. The report puts forward the main expected economic goals for 2024 and makes arrangements for major macro policies. In this regard, we make the following key points: 1. The GDP growth target for 2024 is set at \"around 5.0%,\" which is the same as last year\\'s growth target and similar to last year\\'s actual growth level of 5.2%, in line with market expectations. In December last year, the Central Economic Work Conference continued to emphasize \"seeking progress while maintaining stability\" and proposed for the first time \"promoting stability through progress.\" This means that maintaining a medium-to-high-speed growth level has received further attention. The government work report of the two sessions in 2024 will continue to set an economic growth target of “around 5.0%”, in line with general expectations. In fact, taking into account the influence of base factors, achieving economic growth of \"around 5.0%\" this year means that the actual economic growth momentum is stronger than last year. We believe that the reason for setting this growth target this year is mainly due to the following considerations: On the one hand, currently and in the future, our country has an economic growth potential of 5.0%-6.0%, and this is also the \"realization of economic growth\" in 2021-35. The basic requirement is to double the total or per capita income. More importantly, maintaining the current medium-to-high growth rate of around 5.0% can provide basic guarantees for ensuring people\\'s livelihood and employment, maintaining financial stability, and resolving local debt risks, and provide a favorable environment for accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system and solidly promoting high-quality development. . Finally, this growth target is basically consistent with the previous judgments of various domestic and foreign institutions, which helps stabilize market expectations. We predict that household consumption will continue to recover in 2024, and macroeconomic policies will still maintain a certain level of steady growth. This year\\'s actual economic growth is expected to reach around 5.0%. The focus of macro policies in 2023 is to lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation, vigorously promote the development and growth of the private economy, and the endogenous growth momentum of the economy is expected to be further strengthened.', 'authorid': UUID('d7ea9c3c-f2e2-5feb-9235-126befe02cfb'), 'sentimentScore': 0.0817751046270132, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'FPAH9GUMLCLNQRVG1IONJQ405BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:58:40 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'FPAH9GUMLCLNQRVG1IONJQ405BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('124c7ecb-00c4-5a1e-9348-95cadd80152a'), 'title': 'Study the 2024 Government Work Report: Strengthen quality improvement and efficiency improvement, and stabilize reasonable growth', 'author': 'Yuanno', 'orgName': '中邮证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80036717', 'orgSName': '中邮证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13C2Tz7dzczsnbNxtxtKnRiM=', 'researcher': '袁野', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000266839'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13C2Tz7dzczsnbNxtxtKnRiM=', 'site': 'China Post Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中邮证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625667630_1.pdf?1709730344000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625667630_1.pdf?1709730344000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Study the 2024 Government Work Report: Strengthen quality improvement and efficiency improvement, and stabilize reasonable growth', 'originalAuthor': '袁野', 'originalContent': '核心观点2024年政府工作报告定调积极进取，关键目标与预期基本相符，持平市场预期上限，机遇与压力并存。宏观政策符合预期，基本延续中央经济工作会议精神基调，财政加大调控力度，新增发行1万亿超长期国债，加大中央对地方均衡转移支付力度。十大重点任务部署务实，稳增长与防风险并重。可关注传统设备更新改造、以及以氢能、数字经济等为代表的创新投资方向。风险提示：全球经济增长动能超预期放缓；中美贸易摩擦超预期加剧；海外地缘政治冲突加剧。', 'content': 'The core view is that the 2024 Government Work Report sets a positive and enterprising tone. The key goals are basically in line with expectations and the upper limit of market expectations. Opportunities and pressures coexist. Macroeconomic policies are in line with expectations and basically continue the spiritual tone of the Central Economic Work Conference. Fiscal control has been stepped up, an additional 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term government bonds have been issued, and the central government has increased balanced transfer payments to local governments. The deployment of the ten key tasks is pragmatic, with equal emphasis on stabilizing growth and preventing risks. You can focus on the upgrading and transformation of traditional equipment, as well as innovative investment directions represented by hydrogen energy, digital economy, etc. Risk warning: Global economic growth momentum slowed down more than expected; Sino-US trade friction intensified more than expected; overseas geopolitical conflicts intensified.', 'authorid': UUID('41b3960d-9709-5ae8-b077-aad17d16ee4a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.2574136909097433, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'VVHEGF40C4G8JN3QNTL0PECCAVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:58:42 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'VVHEGF40C4G8JN3QNTL0PECCAVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('abff653d-f2c3-5aa3-9f26-d0442c07d496'), 'title': 'Weekly Economic Observation: The tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability continues', 'author': 'Yuan Fang , Shu Jiapei', 'orgName': '国投证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80084302', 'orgSName': '国投证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13Fcvmaims9pXOessyksID/I=', 'researcher': '袁方,束加沛', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000337134', '11000370131'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13Fcvmaims9pXOessyksID/I=', 'site': 'SDIC Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625661209_1.pdf?1709721869000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625661209_1.pdf?1709721869000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly Economic Observation: The tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability continues', 'originalAuthor': '袁方,束加沛', 'originalContent': '本次政府工作报告的总体基调与去年 12 月的中央经济工作会议接近。 5%的增长目标显示了决策层稳中求进的思路，政府通过总需求政策大力刺激经济的可能性较低，未来经济活动的恢复更多依靠内生动能。当前房地产行业面临的流动性压力仍然较大， 新房销售走弱，万科股债的价格波动也显示市场对其担忧在增加。权益市场处于流动性压力缓和、超跌反弹的阶段。 不过权益市场最终能否趋势走强高度依赖房地产行业的走向，这无疑需要关注万科债务问题的演绎。风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （ 2）政策出台超预期', 'content': \"The overall tone of this government work report is similar to that of the Central Economic Work Conference last December. The 5% growth target shows the decision-makers' approach to making progress while maintaining stability. The government is less likely to vigorously stimulate the economy through aggregate demand policies, and the recovery of future economic activities will rely more on endogenous kinetic energy. The current liquidity pressure faced by the real estate industry is still high, new home sales are weakening, and the price fluctuations of Vanke's stocks and bonds also show that the market is increasing concerns about it. The equity market is in a stage of easing liquidity pressure and rebounding from oversold conditions. However, whether the equity market can eventually strengthen is highly dependent on the direction of the real estate industry, which undoubtedly requires attention to the interpretation of Vanke's debt problem. Risk reminder: (1) Geopolitical risks (2) Policy introduction exceeds expectations\", 'authorid': UUID('66c81f3c-61e1-5d1f-95e1-6739dac1004e'), 'sentimentScore': -0.06739093363285065, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OP6JO8A0E0LB2UT2O8GA4T3I0BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:58:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OP6JO8A0E0LB2UT2O8GA4T3I0BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9bc71284-45ca-54bc-9d52-ecac30238c6f'), 'title': 'China Macro: Interpretation of the 2024 Government Work Report - Technology leads the way to achieve the economic goal of high-quality development', 'author': 'Cai Rui, Li Shaojin', 'orgName': '交银国际证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80101832', 'orgSName': '交银国际证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13MPeQzbQYzLoegX6mmPPqSY=', 'researcher': '蔡瑞,李少金', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000442439', '11000445033'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13MPeQzbQYzLoegX6mmPPqSY=', 'site': 'BOCOM International Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '交银国际证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625660147_1.pdf?1709736059000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625660147_1.pdf?1709736059000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'China Macro: Interpretation of the 2024 Government Work Report - Technology leads the way to achieve the economic goal of high-quality development', 'originalAuthor': '蔡瑞,李少金', 'originalContent': '2024年3月5日，国务院总理李强向十四届全国人大二次会议作政府工作报告，关于2024年主要政府工作目标，要点如下：。总量目标：2024年国内生产总值增长5%左右；赤字率拟按3%安排。一般公共预算支出比上年增加1.1万亿元；拟安排地方政府专项债券3.9万亿元。中央预算内投资拟安排7000亿元；从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。产业政策：大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力，开辟量子技术、生命科学等新赛道；开展“人工智能+”行动。总量层面：预计宏观经济政策延续积极，经济有望实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。2024年经济增长目标设在5%左右，符合市场预期，预计宏观经济政策延续积极。2024年经济增长目标设定在5%左右，与2023年相同，且符合市场预期，但考虑到2022年较低的基数，2024年设立这一增长目标体现了政府对经济稳定增长的坚定承诺，同时也是对经济实现高质量发展提出了更高要求。综合海内外形势和各方面因素，我们认为2024年经济增长目标的设定释放了积极信号，有利于稳定海内外预期，并巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，持续推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。财政政策适度加力，有利于营造稳定透明可预期的政策环境。宏观经济政策延续积极，本次政府工作报告拟从2024年开始连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。同时，地方政府专项债提高至3.9万亿，较上年增加1000亿元，均体现了财政政策的适度加力。同时，结合当前国内实际利率仍高，以及海外降息预期，货币政策仍有一定的操作空间，有利于后续货币政策维持灵活适度、精准有效，从而增强宏观政策取向一致性，营造可预期的政策环境。产业政策：强调科技引领，实施更积极的人才政策，大力推进现代化产业体系建设，扩大改革开放，加快发展新质生产力。突出科技引领，产业政策的重要性明显提升。本次政府报告着重强调了科技创新在推动产业发展中的核心作用，明确提出要依靠科技创新引领产业升级和经济高质量发展。政府工作报告提出了将加大对重大科技项目的支持力度，全面推进新型工业化进程，提高全要素生产率，以科技创新为引领，促进产业创新，不断塑造发展新动能和新优势，反映了政府将继续加强国家战略科技力量的建设，通过科技引领实现社会生产力的新跃升，加快发展新质生产力，实现经济增长引擎的转变和经济效率的深层次变革。2024年政府工作报告首提生物制造、低空经济等产业，突出量子技术、人工智能等新兴前沿行业的重要性。政府计划积极培育新兴产业和未来产业，如智能网联新能源汽车、前沿新兴氢能、新材料、创新药等产业，并加快这些领域的发展。同时，还提到了打造生物制造、商业航天、低空经济等新增长引擎，以及开辟量子技术、生命科学等新赛道，创建一批未来产业先导区。产业措施旨在巩固并扩大中国在这些高技术产业领域的领先优势，推动战略性新兴产业融合集群发展，促进经济结构的优化升级。重视人才因素，实施更积极、更开放和更有效的人才政策。本次政府工作报告将工作任务中的人才因素摆在第二位，凸显了对人才因素的重视。报告重提科教兴国战略，为高质量发展提供基础支撑。通过加强教育和科技创新，不仅可以培养出更多具有创新能力和实践技能的高素质人才，还能够推动科技进步和产业升级，从而为国家的长远发展奠定坚实的基础。实现高质量发展，也需内外兼修，扩大改革开放有助于进一步促进经济高质量发展的关键举措。本次政府工作报告提及扩大高水平对外开放，着力在：1）“走出去”：推动外贸质升量稳，支持企业开拓多元化市场，提升外贸结构的优化级别，推动从“量的扩张”向“质的提升”转变。2）“引进来”：加大吸引外资力度，放宽制造业领域、电信、医疗服务市场准入，将有利于吸引更多高质量外资流入，还促进技术和管理经验交流，提高国内产业整体水平。3）深化合作，推动构建开放型世界经济：通过实施自贸试验区提升战略、赋予自贸试验区更多自主权等措施，不仅有利于中国经济的长期健康发展，也为世界经济稳定和增长提供了新的动力。总体而言，2024年政府工作报告释放出积极信号，表明国家对今年经济工作充满信心，并为经济发展指明方向，利于推动经济行稳致远。结合前不久中共中央政治局会议审议《政府工作报告》提出了一系列有利于推动中国经济高质量发展的措施和目标任务，强调了2024年为实现“十四五”规划目标任务的关键一年的重要性。会议提出的措施和目标任务将有助于巩固和增强中国经济回升向好态势，切实增强经济活力、防范化解风险、改善社会预期，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，持续推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。', 'content': '2024年3月5日，国务院总理李强向十四届全国人大二次会议作政府工作报告，关于2024年主要政府工作目标，要点如下：。总量目标：2024年国内生产总值增长5%左右；赤字率拟按3%安排。一般公共预算支出比上年增加1.1万亿元；拟安排地方政府专项债券3.9万亿元。中央预算内投资拟安排7000亿元；从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。产业政策：大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力，开辟量子技术、生命科学等��赛道；开展“人工智能+”行动。总量层面：预计宏观经济政策延续积极，经济有望实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。2024年经济增长目标设在5%左右，符合市场预期，预计宏观经济政策延续积极。2024年经济增长目标设定在5%左右，与2023年相同，且符合市场预期，但考虑到2022年较低的基数，2024年设立这一增长目标体现了政府对经济稳定增长的坚定承诺，同时也是对经济实现高质量发展提出了更高要求。综合海内外形势和各方面因素，我们认为2024年经济增长目标的设定释放了积极信号，有利于稳定海内外预期，并巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，持续推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。财政政策适度加力，有利于营造稳定透明可预期的政策环境。宏观经济政策延续积极，本次政府工作报告拟从2024年开始连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。同时，地方政府专项债提高至3.9万亿，较上年增加1000亿元，均体现了财政政策的适度加力。同时，结合当前国内实际利率仍高，以及海外降息预期，货币政策仍有一定的操作空间，有利于后续货币政策维持灵活适度、精准有效，从而增强宏观政策取向一致性，营造可预期的政策环境。产业政策：强调科技引领，实施更积极的人才政策，大力推进现代化产业体系建设，扩大改革开放，加快发展新质生产力。突出科技引领，产业政策的重要性明显提升。本次政府报告着重强调了科技创新在推动产业发展中的核心作用，明确提出要依靠科技创新引领产业升级和经济高质量发展。政府工作报告提出了将加大对重大科技项目的支持力度，全面推进新型工业化进程，提高全要素生产率，以科技创新为引领，促进产业创新，不断塑造发展新动能和新优势，反映了政府将继续加强国家战略科技力量的建设，通过科技引领实现社会生产力的新跃升，加快发展新质生产力，实现经济增长引擎的转变和经济效率的深层次变革。2024年政府工作报告首提生物制造、低空经济等产业，突出量子技术、人工智能等新兴前沿行业的重要性。政府计划积极培育新兴产业和未来产业，如智能网联新能源汽车、前沿新兴氢能、新材料、创新药等产业，并加快这些领域的发展。同时，还提到了打造生物制造、商业航天、低空经济等新增长引擎，以及开辟量子技术、生命科学等新赛道，创建一批未来产业先导区。产业措施旨在巩固并扩大中国在这些高技术产业领域的领先优势，推动战略性新兴产业融合集群发展，促进经济结构的优化升级。重视人才因素，实施更积极、更开放和更有效的人才政策。本次政府工作报告将工作任务中的人才因素摆在第二位，凸显了对人才因素的重视。报告重提科教兴国战略，为高质量发展提供基础支撑。通过加强教育和科技创新，不仅可以培养出更多具有创新能力和实践技能的高素质人才，还能够推动科技进步和产业升级，从而为国家的长远发展奠定坚实的基础。实现高质量发展，也需内外兼修，扩大改革开放有助于进一步促进经济高质量发展的关键举措。本次政府工作报告提及扩大高水平对外开放，着力在：1）“走出去”：推动外贸质升量稳，支持企业开拓多元化市场，提升外贸结构的优化级别，推动从“量的扩张”向“质的提升”转变。2）“引进来”：加大吸引外资力度，放宽制造业领域、电信、医疗服务市场准入，将有利于吸引更多高质量外资流入，还促进技术和管理经验交流，提高国内产业整体水平。3）深化合作，推动构建开放型世界经济：通过实施自贸试验区提升战略、赋予自贸试验区更多自主权等措施，不仅有利于中国经济的长期健康发展，也为世界经济稳定和增长提供了新的动力。总体而言，2024年政府工作报告释放出积极信号，表明国家对今年经济工作充满信心，并为经济发展指明方向，利于推动经济行稳致远。结合前不久中共中央政治局会议审议《政府工作报告》提出了一系列有利于推动中国经济高质量发展的措施和目标任务，强调了2024年为实现“十四五”规划目标任务的关键一年的重要性。会议提出的措施和目标任务将有助于巩固和增强中国经济回升向好态势，切实增强经济活力、防范化解风险、改善社会预期，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，持续推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。', 'authorid': UUID('2427af0c-0a21-5003-abde-02bb4ca518e3'), 'sentimentScore': 0.05536617338657379, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'DL647J8A6CONODJ508FUUHSBQNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:58:49 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'DL647J8A6CONODJ508FUUHSBQNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ebdcee92-c0bd-5a5c-8967-fde578504033'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic report: How does the economy look at the beginning of the year?', 'author': 'Song Xuetao, Sun Yongle', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13DwHnKNa/2IQKd9BAz6xXBQ=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛,孙永乐', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658', '11000337036'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13DwHnKNa/2IQKd9BAz6xXBQ=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625659925_1.pdf?1709720977000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625659925_1.pdf?1709720977000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic report: How does the economy look at the beginning of the year?', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛,孙永乐', 'originalContent': '按照生产法，我们估算1-2月（涵盖了整个春节）月度GDP同比增速或在4.2%左右，第二产业表现略弱，第三产业表现略强。考虑到2023年4季度国内GDP两年复合同比增速4%，今年年初经济大致延续了去年年末的格局，翻过年，经济没有变得更好，也没有变得更差。4.2%左右的GDP增速相比于今年5%左右的政策目标还有一定的距离，两会之后，市场可以期待政策的实际发力力度。风险提示：经济数据表现超预期，高频数据与实际月度数据存在背离，模型误差', 'content': \"According to the production method, we estimate that the monthly GDP growth rate from January to February (covering the entire Spring Festival) may be around 4.2% year-on-year, with the performance of the secondary industry slightly weaker and the performance of the tertiary industry slightly stronger. Taking into account the two-year compound year-on-year growth rate of domestic GDP of 4% in the fourth quarter of 2023, the economy at the beginning of this year has roughly continued the pattern at the end of last year. After the new year, the economy has not gotten better or worse. The GDP growth rate of about 4.2% is still far behind this year's policy target of about 5%. After the two sessions, the market can expect the actual strength of the policy. Risk warning: Economic data performance exceeds expectations, high-frequency data deviates from actual monthly data, and model errors occur\", 'authorid': UUID('4449585e-c540-5def-a027-eb3ec7d62432'), 'sentimentScore': -0.5288661122322083, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '6OO6M9L29R3IS773JHCPF011D3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:58:52 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '6OO6M9L29R3IS773JHCPF011D3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('447c6e60-f6e3-5584-90c6-841c13460333'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the 2024 Two Sessions Government Work Report: Five-Dimensional Understanding of the Government Work Report', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Chang Yixin, Fan Chengkai', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13LzUY+O6ZFwo7EcQBdN1jQ4=', 'researcher': '钟正生,常艺馨,范城恺', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000387731', '11000369143'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13LzUY+O6ZFwo7EcQBdN1jQ4=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625659923_1.pdf?1709720977000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625659923_1.pdf?1709720977000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the 2024 Two Sessions Government Work Report: Five-Dimensional Understanding of the Government Work Report', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,常艺馨,范城恺', 'originalContent': '平安观点：2024年3月5日，李强总理在全国两会作政府工作报告，回顾2023年工作，提出2024年政府工作目标。我们从五个维度出发，提出我们的理解与判断。1、目标5%左右，并非易事。财政赤字率与新增赤字规模安排，暗含了对名义GDP增速目标的假设（5.6%附近），GDP平减指数���标下限0.6%左右。报告在稳增长方面具体提出：一是，着力扩大国内需求，更好统筹消费和投资。二是，积极扩大有效投资。推动传统行业加快设备更新和技术改造，有助于制造业投资增速稳定在合理水平。三是，推动外贸质升量稳。四是，房地产政策保留“一视同仁”、“加快构建房地产发展新模式”等说法。我们对2024年中国经济增长目标的实现葆有信心。2、赤字率3%，实则积极。3%的赤字率持平于去年，但对应赤字规模为4.06万亿，较去年两会安排增加1800亿元。新增专项债规模3.9万亿，较去年增加1000亿元。综合已发行的1万亿特别国债（其中5000亿元结转到2024年使用）、拟安排2024年新发行的1万亿超长期特别国债和3.9万亿专项债，2024年可动用的两本账广义赤字约9.46万亿，较2023年全年可动用的规模提高1.28万亿，保持了积极的取向。此外，减税降费强调落实，新出台大规模政策概率较低；防范和化解债务风险仍是重点。3、货币宽松，把握节奏。当前市场对于2024年货币政策宽松的方向已经形成共识。我们认为，判断货币政策发力节奏有两个“题眼”。1）物价：年初CPI增速回落，实际利率被动抬升，一定程度上推动2月LPR报价下调。从财政赤字率与新增赤字规模推算，2024年GDP平减指数目标下限应在0.6%附近。若一段时间内物价表现明显弱于预期，或可期待增量货币政策出台。2）汇率：春节期间美联储降息预期明显调整，为维持人民币汇率的相对稳定，节后央行并未调整MLF政策利率。往后看，美联储有望于6月开启降息，届时汇率压力减弱，有助于扩宽货币政策降息空间。4、“稳就业”下限约束更强。2024年城镇新增就业目标设定为1200万人“以上”，不同于去年的“左右”。青年人群仍然是稳就业工作的重点挑战所在，2024届高校毕业生将达到1179万人，占城镇新增就业目标的98.3%，这是稳就业政策对下限约束增强的原因所在。5、“新质生产力”置于首位。报告将“大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力”置于政府工作首位。我们认为，“新质生产力”发展是兼顾短期和中长期发展目标的理想之路，本质上强调了提升全要素生产率与潜在增长能力。具体来看，人工智能、数字经济和新能源汽车等三大领域发展与新质生产力的演进方向较为契合。在推进碳达峰碳中和方面，今年报告用“积极稳妥”替换“科学有序”。报告重新提出具体能耗目标，即“单位GDP能耗降低2.5%左右”，仍然相对务实。', 'content': 'Ping An\\'s perspective: On March 5, 2024, Premier Li Qiang delivered a government work report at the National People\\'s Congress and the National People\\'s Congress, reviewing the work in 2023 and proposing government work goals for 2024. We start from five dimensions and propose our understanding and judgment. 1. The target is about 5%, which is not easy. The arrangement of the fiscal deficit ratio and the scale of new deficits implies the assumption of a nominal GDP growth target (near 5.6%), and the lower limit of the GDP deflator target is about 0.6%. The report specifically proposes in terms of stabilizing growth: First, focus on expanding domestic demand and better coordinate consumption and investment. Second, actively expand effective investment. Promoting traditional industries to speed up equipment updates and technological transformation will help stabilize the growth rate of manufacturing investment at a reasonable level. The third is to promote the quality improvement and stable quantity of foreign trade. Fourth, the real estate policy retains statements such as “treating everyone equally” and “accelerating the construction of a new model of real estate development.” We remain confident in the realization of China\\'s economic growth target in 2024. 2. The deficit rate is 3%, which is actually positive. The deficit rate of 3% is the same as last year, but the corresponding deficit size is 4.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 180 billion yuan from last year\\'s two sessions. The scale of new special bonds was 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan compared with last year. Taking into account the 1 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds issued (of which 500 billion yuan will be carried forward to 2024), the 1 trillion yuan of super long-term special treasury bonds and 3.9 trillion yuan of special bonds planned to be newly issued in 2024, the two bonds that can be used in 2024 The general account deficit is approximately 9.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.28 trillion yuan from the scale available for the whole of 2023, maintaining a positive orientation. In addition, tax cuts and fee reductions emphasize implementation, and the probability of new large-scale policies is low; preventing and resolving debt risks remains the focus. 3. Monetary easing and keeping pace. The market currently has a consensus on the direction of monetary policy easing in 2024. We believe that there are two \"problems\" in judging the pace of monetary policy. 1) Prices: The CPI growth rate fell back at the beginning of the year, and the real interest rate passively rose, which to a certain extent promoted the downward adjustment of the LPR quotation in February. Calculated from the fiscal deficit rate and the scale of new deficits, the lower limit of the GDP deflator target in 2024 should be around 0.6%. If price performance is significantly weaker than expected for a period of time, we may expect the introduction of incremental monetary policy. 2) Exchange rate: During the Spring Festival, the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate cut expectations were significantly adjusted. In order to maintain the relative stability of the RMB exchange rate, the central bank did not adjust the MLF policy interest rate after the holiday. Looking forward, the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates in June, when exchange rate pressure will weaken, which will help expand the space for monetary policy to cut interest rates. 4. The lower limit of \"stabilizing employment\" is stronger. The target for new urban employment in 2024 is set at \"above\" 12 million people, which is different from last year\\'s \"around\". Young people are still the key challenge in stabilizing employment. The number of college graduates in 2024 will reach 11.79 million, accounting for 98.3% of the new urban employment target. This is the reason why the employment stabilization policy has strengthened the lower limit constraints. 5. Put “new quality productivity” first. The report places \"vigorously promoting the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerating the development of new productive forces\" at the top of the government\\'s work. We believe that the development of \"new productive forces\" is an ideal path that takes into account both short-term and medium- and long-term development goals. It essentially emphasizes the improvement of total factor productivity and potential growth capabilities. Specifically, the development of the three major fields of artificial intelligence, digital economy and new energy vehicles is relatively consistent with the evolution direction of new productive forces. In terms of promoting carbon peak and carbon neutrality, this year’s report replaces “scientific and orderly” with “active and prudent”. The report re-proposes a specific energy consumption target, that is, \"to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by about 2.5%\", which is still relatively pragmatic.', 'authorid': UUID('3d3b1613-a06f-5fe2-a7e8-22dd4bfb85ae'), 'sentimentScore': 0.08655424416065216, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'JJJDUBFD96DORF47KLT9VABA5FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:58:55 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'JJJDUBFD96DORF47KLT9VABA5FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('229693f8-bc95-5fa8-ae04-42874803c7c5'), 'title': 'Liquidity Tracking Weekly Report', 'author': 'Xu Ying, Lin Yonglu', 'orgName': '麦高证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80049237', 'orgSName': '麦高证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13BORP/rzzECcMv7FaoX8XGs=', 'researcher': '徐滢,林永绿', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000449878', '11000449879'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13BORP/rzzECcMv7FaoX8XGs=', 'site': 'Mago Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '麦高证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625659343_1.pdf?1709723103000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625659343_1.pdf?1709723103000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Liquidity Tracking Weekly Report', 'originalAuthor': '徐滢,林永绿', 'originalContent': '摘要上周公开市场净回笼8400亿元，本周有5320亿元逆回购到期上周（2024年2月18日—2024年2月25日）央行公开市场净回笼8400亿元，其中7天逆回购投放5320亿元，到期1340亿元，维持1.80%利率水平；14天逆回购到期12390亿元；MLF投放5000亿元，到期4990亿元。本周（2024年2月24日—2024年3月3日）有5320亿元的逆回购到期。R007与DR007利差小幅上涨，交易所回购利率下行R001均值为1.96%，较前一周下行24.01BP，DR001均值为1.66%，较前一周下行5.86BP。DR007加权均价的均值为1.82%，较前一周下行8.82BP。R007加权均价的均值为2.10%，较前一周下行26.49BP。二者收盘价利差（R007-DR007）收于0.01BP，较前一周上行0.01BP。交易所回购利率下行，GC007均值为2.10%，较前一周下行28.06BP。同业存单发行总额增加，平均��面利率下行上周同业存单到期量有所增加，为5229.10亿元（前一周为1662.50亿元），发行数量增加至840只，实际发行总额为11226.80亿元（前一周为4267.40亿元）。平均票面利率下行7.65BP至2.26%。风险提示：政策超预期、金融监管超预期等。', 'content': \"Summary Last week, the open market had a net withdrawal of 840 billion yuan, and 532 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired this week. Last week (February 18, 2024 - February 25, 2024), the central bank's open market had a net withdrawal of 840 billion yuan, of which 7 Tianni reverse repurchase has invested 532 billion yuan, with 134 billion yuan due, maintaining the interest rate level of 1.80%; 14-day reverse repurchase has matured 1,239 billion yuan; MLF has invested 500 billion yuan, with 499 billion yuan due. This week (February 24, 2024 - March 3, 2024), 532 billion yuan of reverse repurchases expired. The spread between R007 and DR007 increased slightly. The exchange repurchase rate fell. The average value of R001 was 1.96%, a decrease of 24.01 BP from the previous week. The average value of DR001 was 1.66%, a decrease of 5.86 BP from the previous week. The average weighted average price of DR007 is 1.82%, a decrease of 8.82BP from the previous week. The average weighted average price of R007 is 2.10%, a decrease of 26.49BP from the previous week. The spread between the closing prices of the two (R007-DR007) closed at 0.01BP, an increase of 0.01BP from the previous week. The exchange repurchase rate fell, with the average value of GC007 being 2.10%, a decrease of 28.06BP from the previous week. The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit increased, and the average coupon rate fell. The maturity amount of interbank certificates of deposit increased last week, reaching 522.91 billion yuan (previous week: 166.250 billion yuan). The number of issuances increased to 840, and the actual total issuance was 1.12268 billion yuan (previous week: 166.250 billion yuan). 426.74 billion yuan a week). The average coupon rate fell by 7.65BP to 2.26%. Risk warning: Policies exceed expectations, financial supervision exceeds expectations, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('117b2061-d9f1-5a06-93ac-5937039d112f'), 'sentimentScore': 0.04268608242273331, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'M8BVC27MH6OMRPEBM9ECC863NVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:58:57 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'M8BVC27MH6OMRPEBM9ECC863NVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('29b57dda-c6cc-5abd-ad36-c897d6ec4529'), 'title': 'Macro topic: The \"Two Sessions\" are in line with expectations, and commodities focus on structural opportunities', 'author': 'Xu Wenyu, Cai Shaoli, Gao Cong', 'orgName': '华泰期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80055521', 'orgSName': '华泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13FLSpi1ZRGIvenptRibxfD0=', 'researcher': '徐闻宇,蔡劭立,高聪', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000194620', '11000304033', '11000304231'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13FLSpi1ZRGIvenptRibxfD0=', 'site': 'Huatai Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625658670_1.pdf?1709718867000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625658670_1.pdf?1709718867000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro topic: The \"Two Sessions\" are in line with expectations, and commodities focus on structural opportunities', 'originalAuthor': '徐闻宇,蔡劭立,高聪', 'originalContent': '策略摘要2024年的政府工作报告释放了财政温和扩张的讯号，总体符合预期。一方面，广义财政虽高于去年年初目标，但仍低于年中上修后的程度；另一方面，特别国债进入到“常态化”发行，长期影响强于短期，稳定中国宏观资产负债表。关注商品结构性的机会。核心观点宏观政策扩张初期，资产端扩张温和，关注市场预期差带来的调整压力。中国宏观资产负债表的负债端随着2月货币政策的降准和降息，开启了本轮负债扩张的序幕；但是宏观资产端的扩张表现出长期性的特征，2月份PSL扩张暂停，3月份政府工作报告3.0%的赤字目标持平于去年，在化债背景下4.06万亿赤字规模和3.9万亿地方债限额虽然表现为政策的环比扩张，但是相比较房地产2023年两位数的回落，短期资产的创造仍谨慎，特别国债的扩张表现为长期性的特征。在短期“缺资产”延续状态下，收益率曲线仍有趋平压力（+1×T-2TS），关注商品调整风险。中观政府工作报告对商品的影响。整体宏观预期得到提振，中央财政有所发力，广义财政较去年明显加码，对应基建投资和设备投资，消费方面的大规模设备更新以及消费品的以旧换新同样值得持续关注，对应是工业品的需求受益。但现阶段核心矛盾在于复工复产进度偏慢，以及2024年后整体债务发行节奏平稳，政策超前发力的迹象不明显。从库存周期的角度，关注汽车、运输设备、橡塑、燃气、黑色冶炼、电子等进入补库周期的行业。1月制造业PMI分行业来看，原材料、中间品、设备回升，消费较上月回落，设备领跑大类行业。事件策略来看，全国两会：复盘近11年的两会资产样本：A股受益明显，两会后一周和后一月中证1000和中证500表现较强，样本上涨概率在70%左右；商品在两会期间有所承压，两会后逐步企稳修复。微观商品交投情绪清淡，芳烃系化工（EB、PX、TA）、生猪、贵金属存在结构性机会。风险：地缘政治风险（能源板块上行风险）；全球经济超预期下行（风险资产下行风险）；美联储超预期收紧（风险资产下行风险）；海外流动性风险冲击（风险资产下行风险）。', 'content': 'Strategy Summary The 2024 government work report released a signal of moderate fiscal expansion, which was generally in line with expectations. On the one hand, although the broad fiscal budget is higher than the target at the beginning of last year, it is still lower than the level after the mid-year upward revision; on the other hand, special government bonds have entered the \"normal\" issuance, and the long-term impact is stronger than the short-term, stabilizing China\\'s macro balance sheet . Pay attention to commodity structural opportunities. Core view: In the early stages of macroeconomic policy expansion, the expansion of the asset side is moderate, and we should pay attention to the adjustment pressure caused by the difference in market expectations. The liability side of China\\'s macro balance sheet kicked off this round of liability expansion with the monetary policy cut in reserve requirements and interest rates in February; however, the expansion of the macro asset side shows long-term characteristics. In February, the PSL expansion was suspended, and in March the government The 3.0% deficit target in the work report remains unchanged from last year. In the context of debt reduction, the 4.06 trillion deficit scale and the 3.9 trillion local debt limit represent a month-on-month expansion of policies. However, compared with the double-digit decline of real estate in 2023, short-term assets The creation of bonds is still cautious, especially the expansion of national debt shows long-term characteristics. As the short-term \"shortage of assets\" continues, there is still pressure to flatten the yield curve (+1×T-2TS), and we should pay attention to the risk of commodity adjustment. The impact of the Meso Government Work Report on commodities. The overall macroeconomic expectations have been boosted, the central finance has made some efforts, and the general finance has significantly increased compared with last year, corresponding to infrastructure investment and equipment investment. Large-scale equipment updates in consumption and the trade-in of consumer goods also deserve continued attention, corresponding to the demand for industrial products. Benefit. However, the core contradiction at this stage is that the resumption of work and production is slow, and the overall pace of debt issuance after 2024 is stable, and there are no obvious signs of policy advancement. From the perspective of inventory cycle, focus on industries that have entered the inventory replenishment cycle, such as automobiles, transportation equipment, rubber and plastics, gas, ferrous smelting, and electronics. Looking at the manufacturing PMI by industry in January, raw materials, intermediate goods, and equipment rebounded, consumption fell compared with the previous month, and equipment led the major industries. From the perspective of event strategy, the National Two Sessions: Review of asset samples from the Two Sessions in the past 11 years: A-shares benefited significantly, with CSI 1000 and CSI 500 performing strongly in the week and month after the Two Sessions, with a sample increase probability of about 70%; commodities There was some pressure during the two sessions, but it gradually stabilized and recovered after the two sessions. Micro-commodity trading sentiment is light, and there are structural opportunities in aromatic chemicals (EB, PX, TA), pigs, and precious metals. Risks: Geopolitical risks (upward risk for the energy sector); unexpected downturn in the global economy (downward risk for risky assets); unexpected tightening by the Federal Reserve (downward risk for risky assets); impact of overseas liquidity risks (downward risk for risky assets).', 'authorid': UUID('c972bae4-a66e-5b69-a00c-159851827ed0'), 'sentimentScore': 0.4511260390281677, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GVK0FC36G9STQ4EUQC0CT4G9TJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:58:59 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GVK0FC36G9STQ4EUQC0CT4G9TJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0d191f9a-aaf9-5e8b-b406-aebf726321fe'), 'title': 'Macro monthly report: Learning experience from \"Government Work Report\"', 'author': 'Zhang Deli', 'orgName': '中泰证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000157', 'orgSName': '中泰证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13I2lPiIYSDOLOQXrNZvMYso=', 'researcher': '张德礼', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000250135'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13I2lPiIYSDOLOQXrNZvMYso=', 'site': 'Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中泰证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625655727_1.pdf?1709715289000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625655727_1.pdf?1709715289000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro monthly report: Learning experience from \"Government Work Report\"', 'originalAuthor': '张德礼', 'originalContent': '学习了2024年《政府工作报告》后，有几个直观感受：一是主要的预期目标，包括GDP增速、CPI同比、新增城镇就业和城镇调查失业率，都持平于去年的，也跟市场的主流预期一致；二是今年发行1万亿超长期特别国债的时点略早于预期，市场此前认为发行时点要视经济情况而定。此外，《政府工作报告》还预告了未来几年都将拟发行超长期特别国债；三是处置风险隐患要“稳妥有序”，节奏调整是防风险部分最大的变化。具体来看，我们认为有以下几点值得关注：第一，GDP增速目标定在5%左右，兼顾了需要和可能。从《政府工作报告》看，与“十四五”规划和基本实现现代化的目标相衔接，是设定这一增速目标的考量因素之一。2035年基本实现现代化目标，人均国内生产总值需要达到中等发达国家水平。刘伟等人的研究显示，2020-2035年中国人均实际GDP水平至少需要翻番，才能满足基本实现社会主义现代化的要求，隐含的是2020-2035年中国实际GDP年均增速在4.8%以上。根据2021-2023年中国实际的GDP增速，测算得2024-2035年中国年均的实际GDP增速需达到4.61%。考虑到GDP增速中枢下移的客观规律，近年中国的实际GDP增速有必要保持相对高位，这可能也是未来几年都将拟发行超长期特别国债的原因之一。第二，公共财政适度发力，政府性基金支出托底经济。赤字率拟按3%安排，赤字规模4.06万亿，隐含的名义GDP增速在7.4%左右。一般公共财政支出规模28.5万亿元，较2023年的实际支出规模增长3.8%，低于2022年（6.1%）和2023年（5.4%）的公共财政支出实际增速。公共财政支出规模比2023年增加1.1万亿，同比增量亦低于2022年（2.1万亿）和2023年（1.5万亿）的，体现了财政可持续性。新增地方政府专项债券3.9万亿，比上年增加1000亿。再考虑到1万亿超长期特别建设国债在促进国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设方面的作用，政府性基金在托底经济方面扮演了重要角色。第三，货币政策要加强总量和结构的双重调节。货币政策部分值得关注的：一是“加强总量和结构双重调节”，这意味着结构性货币政策工具在支持重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节方面，将会有更大力度、更广范围的使用；二是明确要求“避免资金沉淀空转”，关注非市场因素可能影响资金面的风险；三是“增强资本市场内在稳定性”，可能将在完善制度、稳定市场等方面推进。第四，大力推进现代化产业体系建设，深入实施实施科教兴国战略，位居2024年各项工作的前两位。从2023年中央经济工作会议的部署看，产业政策是2024年各项工作之首，符合预期。《政府工作报告》在推动产业链供应链优化升级、积极培育新兴产业和未来产业、深入推进数字经济创新发展三个方面做了部署，核心是要建设现代化产业体系和发展新质生产力。把实施科教兴国战略放在第二位，比较超预期，可能的原因在于，加快现代化产业体系建设和经济高质量发展，需要高质量的教育体系和人才队伍，以及高水平的科技自立自强。第五，促进消费稳定增长，积极扩大有效投资。《政府工作报告》在优化供给和减少限制性措施等方面，对促进消费做了部署。固定资产投资方面，2024年中央预算内投资拟安排7000亿元，比2023年增加了200亿。新增专项债额度分配向项目准备充分、投资效率较高的���区倾斜，这一原则在提前批专项债额度分配里已经得到体现，预计新增专项债整体对基建的拉动效率将提升。防止低效无效投资，在化债的大背景下，达不到审批标准的项目比例可能提高。第六，深化改革，扩大高水平开放。结合近年改革实践和2023年中央经济工作会议的部署，一些市场关心的改革领域，在《政府工作报告》里都有部署，包括支持民营企业发展、建设全国统一大市场和财税金融等领域改革。针对民营企业融资难的问题，要求提高民营企业贷款占比、扩大发债融资规模。《政府工作报告》指出“建设高水平社会主义市场经济体制改革先行区”，关注后续如何推进。近年各界对外贸和外资的关注度很高，《政府工作报告》在推动外贸质升量稳、加大吸引外资力度、推动高质量共建“一带一路”走深走实、深化多双边和区域经济合作等方面做了部署。第七，处置风险隐患要“稳妥有序”。防范化解房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等风险，具体举措基本都是已经提出过的。对比最近几年的《政府工作报告》，2024年防风险部分最大的变化可能是，处置风险隐患的节奏要“稳妥有序”，从而更好统筹发展和安全。我们认为定调变化的可能原因，一是2024年稳增长压力上升，政策目标在稳增长和防风险中适度向前者倾斜；二是经过几年时间，防风险工作已经取得了一定进展，比如2024年2月23日国常会指出“地方债务风险得到整体缓解”。风险提示：政策变动，经济恢复不及预期。', 'content': 'After studying the 2024 \"Government Work Report\", I have several intuitive feelings: First, the main expected targets, including GDP growth, CPI year-on-year, new urban employment and urban surveyed unemployment rate, are all the same as last year, and also in line with The market\\'s mainstream expectations are consistent; second, the issuance of 1 trillion ultra-long-term special government bonds this year is slightly earlier than expected. The market previously believed that the issuance time will depend on economic conditions. In addition, the \"Government Work Report\" also predicted that ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued in the next few years; third, the handling of hidden risks must be \"safe and orderly\", and rhythm adjustment is the biggest change in the risk prevention part. Specifically, we believe that the following points deserve attention: First, the GDP growth target is set at around 5%, taking into account both needs and possibilities. Judging from the \"Government Work Report\", the connection with the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" and the goal of basically realizing modernization is one of the considerations in setting this growth target. To basically achieve the modernization goal by 2035, the per capita GDP needs to reach the level of moderately developed countries. Research by Liu Wei and others shows that China\\'s per capita real GDP level needs to at least double from 2020 to 2035 to meet the requirements of basically realizing socialist modernization. The implication is that China\\'s real GDP annual average growth rate from 2020 to 2035 will be above 4.8%. . Based on China\\'s actual GDP growth rate from 2021 to 2023, it is calculated that China\\'s average annual real GDP growth rate from 2024 to 2035 needs to reach 4.61%. Taking into account the objective law that the center of GDP growth rate shifts downward, China\\'s actual GDP growth rate must remain relatively high in recent years. This may be one of the reasons why ultra-long-term special government bonds will be issued in the next few years. Second, public finance has been moderately exerted, and government fund expenditures have supported the economy. The deficit rate is planned to be arranged at 3%, with a deficit scale of 4.06 trillion, and the implied nominal GDP growth rate is around 7.4%. The scale of general public finance expenditure is 28.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.8% compared with the actual expenditure scale in 2023, which is lower than the actual growth rate of public finance expenditure in 2022 (6.1%) and 2023 (5.4%). The scale of public financial expenditure will increase by 1.1 trillion compared with 2023, and the year-on-year increase is also lower than that in 2022 (2.1 trillion) and 2023 (1.5 trillion), reflecting fiscal sustainability. New local government special bonds amounted to 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan from the previous year. Considering the role of 1 trillion ultra-long-term special construction treasury bonds in promoting the implementation of major national strategies and building security capabilities in key areas, government funds play an important role in underpinning the economy. Third, monetary policy must strengthen the dual adjustment of aggregate volume and structure. The monetary policy part deserves attention: First, \"strengthening dual adjustment of aggregate volume and structure\", which means that structural monetary policy tools will have greater intensity and wider scope in supporting major strategies, key areas and weak links. The second is to clearly require \"avoiding the idling of funds\" and pay attention to the risks that non-market factors may affect the capital side; the third is to \"enhance the inherent stability of the capital market\", which may be promoted in aspects such as improving the system and stabilizing the market. Fourth, vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system, thoroughly implement the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education, and rank among the top two in various tasks in 2024. Judging from the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference in 2023, industrial policy will be the first of all tasks in 2024, in line with expectations. The \"Government Work Report\" makes arrangements in three aspects: promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial and supply chains, actively cultivating emerging industries and future industries, and further promoting the innovative development of the digital economy. The core is to build a modern industrial system and develop new productive forces. Putting the implementation of the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education in second place is more unexpected than expected. The possible reason is that accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system and high-quality economic development require a high-quality education system and talent team, as well as high-level scientific and technological self-reliance. Fifth, promote stable growth in consumption and actively expand effective investment. The \"Government Work Report\" makes arrangements to promote consumption in terms of optimizing supply and reducing restrictive measures. In terms of fixed asset investment, the central budget investment in 2024 is planned to be 700 billion yuan, an increase of 20 billion yuan from 2023. The allocation of new special bond quotas is tilted towards areas with well-prepared projects and high investment efficiency. This principle has been reflected in the allocation of special bond quotas approved in advance. It is expected that the overall efficiency of new special bonds in stimulating infrastructure will be improved. To prevent inefficient and ineffective investment, in the context of debt elimination, the proportion of projects that fail to meet approval standards may increase. Sixth, deepen reform and expand high-level opening up. Combining the reform practice in recent years and the deployment of the 2023 Central Economic Work Conference, some reform areas of concern to the market have been deployed in the \"Government Work Report\", including supporting the development of private enterprises, building a national unified market, and reforms in the fields of finance, taxation and finance. In response to the problem of financing difficulties for private enterprises, it is required to increase the proportion of loans to private enterprises and expand the scale of bond issuance and financing. The \"Government Work Report\" pointed out that \"building a high-level socialist market economic system reform pioneer area\" and paid attention to how to proceed in the future. In recent years, people from all walks of life have paid great attention to foreign trade and foreign investment. The \"Government Work Report\" is promoting the quality and quantity of foreign trade, increasing efforts to attract foreign investment, promoting the high-quality joint construction of the \"Belt and Road\" to deepen and solidify, and deepening multi-bilateral and regional cooperation. Arrangements have been made in economic cooperation and other aspects. Seventh, the handling of hidden risks must be “prudent and orderly”. To prevent and resolve risks in real estate, local debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions, the specific measures have basically been proposed. Comparing the \"Government Work Report\" in recent years, the biggest change in the risk prevention part in 2024 may be that the rhythm of handling hidden risks must be \"steady and orderly\" to better coordinate development and safety. We believe that the possible reasons for the change in setting the tone are: first, the pressure to stabilize growth in 2024 has increased, and policy goals are moderately tilted towards the former in stabilizing growth and preventing risks; second, after several years, certain progress has been made in risk prevention, such as in 2024 On February 23, 2018, the National Council pointed out that “local debt risks have been alleviated as a whole.” Risk warning: Policy changes may result in economic recovery falling short of expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('364597e5-dc40-563a-8402-c94bd80c035c'), 'sentimentScore': 0.19599711149930954, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'FR67KM9QFT8GSFRTF4O9RMENH7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:59:02 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'FR67KM9QFT8GSFRTF4O9RMENH7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b14b02f6-4021-57aa-ab99-1a561ccfffd5'), 'title': 'Preview of February economic data: CPI is expected to return to positive levels', 'author': 'Xiao Yu', 'orgName': '中泰证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000157', 'orgSName': '中泰证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13DxiyqMPOppsJ/x7rzTGflc=', 'researcher': '肖雨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000255536'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13DxiyqMPOppsJ/x7rzTGflc=', 'site': 'Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中泰证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625655726_1.pdf?1709714973000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625655726_1.pdf?1709714973000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Preview of February economic data: CPI is expected to return to positive levels', 'originalAuthor': '肖雨', 'originalContent': '工增：外需走弱，补库需求仍不足。12月生产两年复合增速回落，电热燃水在低基数下增长较快。内需方面，2月PMI新订单指数为49.0%，与1月份持平，仍处在枯荣线之下。外需放缓，PMI新出口订单指数46.3%，环比下降0.9pct。2月产成品库存和原材料库存回落，反映企业仍处在去库存阶段，供给端尚未修复。考虑到当前需求较弱、补库需求不足，生产端也较为疲弱，预计2024年1-2月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增速6.0%，相比12月份回落0.8个百分点。固投：基建、地产预计走弱。12月份基建投资加速恢复，地产投资是主要拖累。地产方面，1-2月份商品房交易市场、土地市场边际走弱；基建方面，1-2月新增专项债发行不及预期，石油沥青装置开工回落，基建投资预计下行。制造业景气度回落、地产销售有所降温、基建开工与景气度回落，1-2月固定资产投资同比增速可能回落。预计1-2月固定资产投资累计同比增速回落0.2个百分点至2.8%左右。社零：餐饮、汽车零售恢复较快。12月份社零不及预期，社零整体和商品零售同比增速回落，餐饮回升。1、2月服务业PMI分别为50.1%、51.0%，有所回升。1-2月大宗可选消费品汽车日均销量较去年12月份和1-2月份均有所增长，一定程度反映出国内整体消费环境回暖，预计消费品市场继续呈复苏态势，2023年12月，社零在低基数下同比增长7.4%，预计2024年1-2月份社零在基数回归正常的情况下，同比增速回落至6.0%。外贸：预计进口回落、出口回升。12月份出口走弱，进口环比改善。需求端，美、日、欧制造业PMI均处在枯荣线以下，外需仍较弱。从供给端看，1-2月PMI新出口订单先升至47.2%、后降至46.3%，相比去年12月份上升0.5pct。1-2月中国出口集装箱运价综合指数CCFI环比回升；波罗的海干散货指数（BDI）较12月份有所回落。结合高频数据，预测1-2月出口同比增速在低基数下小幅回升0.2个百分点至2.5%。1、2月PMI进口指数先升至46.7%、后降至46.4%，与去年12月份持平。价格方面，1-2月原油价格较去年1-2月份有所回落，不利于进口金额增长。预计1-2月进口同比增速放缓0.2个百分点至0%。物价：预计PPI降幅扩大、CPI回正。PMI主要原材料购进价格指数回落0.3个百分点至50.1%。再结合动力煤、螺纹钢、水泥价格等高频数据，预测2月PPI同比增速回落0.2个百分点至-2.7%。由于春节错位原因，2月28种重点监测蔬菜价格月度均值与去年同期持平；猪肉平均批发价同比上涨2.7%。预测2月CPI同比增速有望回正，增速为0.1%。金融：信贷、社融预计同比少增。2月30大中城市的商品房成交面积同比回落64.2%（前值-6.9%），可能带动居民中长期贷款继续同比少增。2月汽车日均销量同比上升，有望带动居民短期贷款同比多增。2月地产、基建预计同比走弱，企业中长期贷款增速同比少增。预计2月新增人民币贷款同比少增3000亿元，即1.5万亿元。受地产拖累，预计表外贷款（委托，信托，未贴现）仍然同比减少。直接融资方面，股票融资波动不大，企业债净融资额同比减少约2200亿元，政府债券净融资与去年同期基本持平。预测2月新增社融2.3万亿元，同比少增约8000亿元，社融存量增速为9.2%。风险提示：预测模型和方法不够准确，高频数据更新不及时或提取失误。', 'content': \"Employment growth: External demand is weakening and demand for replenishment is still insufficient. The two-year compound growth rate of production fell back in December, and electric heating and fuel-fired water grew rapidly under a low base. In terms of domestic demand, the PMI new orders index in February was 49.0%, which was the same as in January and was still below the boom-and-bust line. External demand slowed, and the PMI new export orders index was 46.3%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9pct. Inventories of finished goods and raw materials fell in February, reflecting that companies are still in the destocking stage and the supply side has not yet been restored. Taking into account the current weak demand, insufficient replenishment demand, and relatively weak production end, it is expected that the national industrial added value above designated size will grow by 6.0% year-on-year from January to February 2024, down 0.8 percentage points from December. Solid Investment: Infrastructure and real estate are expected to weaken. Infrastructure investment accelerated its recovery in December, with real estate investment being the main drag. In terms of real estate, the commercial housing trading market and land market weakened marginally from January to February; in terms of infrastructure, the issuance of new special bonds from January to February was lower than expected, the start of petroleum asphalt installations fell, and infrastructure investment is expected to decline. The manufacturing boom has declined, real estate sales have cooled, infrastructure construction has started and boom has dropped, and the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in January-February may have dropped. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment from January to February is expected to fall by 0.2 percentage points to around 2.8%. She Ling: Catering and automobile retail sales recovered quickly. In December, social retail sales fell short of expectations. Overall social retail sales and merchandise retail sales dropped year-on-year, while catering rebounded. The PMI of the service industry in January and February was 50.1% and 51.0% respectively, which showed some rebound. The average daily sales of bulk optional consumer goods cars in January and February increased compared with December and January and February last year, which reflects to a certain extent the recovery of the overall domestic consumption environment. It is expected that the consumer goods market will continue to show a recovery trend. In December 2023, social Zero grew by 7.4% year-on-year on a low base. It is expected that from January to February 2024, the year-on-year growth rate of social zero will fall back to 6.0% when the base returns to normal. Foreign trade: Imports are expected to fall and exports to rebound. Exports weakened in December, while imports improved month-on-month. On the demand side, the manufacturing PMIs of the United States, Japan, and Europe are all below the boom-and-bust line, and external demand is still weak. From the supply side, PMI new export orders from January to February first rose to 47.2% and then fell to 46.3%, an increase of 0.5pct compared with December last year. From January to February, China's comprehensive export container freight index CCFI rebounded month-on-month; the Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI) fell slightly from December. Combined with high-frequency data, it is predicted that the year-on-year export growth rate from January to February will rebound slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 2.5% on a low base. In January and February, the PMI import index first rose to 46.7% and then fell to 46.4%, which was the same as in December last year. In terms of price, the price of crude oil in January and February dropped slightly compared with January and February last year, which is not conducive to the growth of import value. The year-on-year growth rate of imports from January to February is expected to slow down by 0.2 percentage points to 0%. Prices: It is expected that the PPI decline will expand and the CPI will return to positive levels. The PMI main raw material purchasing price index fell 0.3 percentage points to 50.1%. Combined with high-frequency data such as thermal coal, rebar, and cement prices, it is predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in February will fall by 0.2 percentage points to -2.7%. Due to the misalignment of the Spring Festival, the monthly average price of 28 key monitored vegetables in February was the same as the same period last year; the average wholesale price of pork increased by 2.7% year-on-year. It is predicted that the year-on-year CPI growth rate in February is expected to return to positive, with a growth rate of 0.1%. Finance: Credit and social financing are expected to grow less year-on-year. The transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bcommercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities fell by 64.2% year-on-year in February (previous value -6.9%), which may lead to the continued decrease in medium- and long-term loans for residents year-on-year. Average daily automobile sales in February increased year-on-year, which is expected to drive a year-on-year increase in short-term loans to residents. In February, real estate and infrastructure are expected to weaken year-on-year, and the growth rate of medium- and long-term corporate loans will slow down year-on-year. New RMB loans in February are expected to decrease by 300 billion yuan year-on-year, or 1.5 trillion yuan. Affected by real estate, off-balance sheet loans (entrusted, trust, undiscounted) are expected to still decrease year-on-year. In terms of direct financing, stock financing fluctuated little, corporate bond net financing decreased by about 220 billion yuan year-on-year, and government bond net financing was basically the same as the same period last year. It is predicted that new social financing will increase by 2.3 trillion yuan in February, a decrease of about 800 billion yuan year-on-year, and the growth rate of social financing stock will be 9.2%. Risk warning: Forecasting models and methods are not accurate enough, high-frequency data updates are not timely or extraction errors occur.\", 'authorid': UUID('8140c451-8a6a-5e7d-961a-cec7a4ef1548'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9635942289605737, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'D56A3CIO66VTUQ03UHO0DLJ3K7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:59:39 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'D56A3CIO66VTUQ03UHO0DLJ3K7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "https://reportapi.eastmoney.com/report/jg?cb=datatable8544623&pageSize=100&beginTime=2023-12-16&endTime=2024-03-15&pageNo=3&qType=3\n", - "{'id': UUID('14a0d7ae-7c2b-55b8-a534-d2a7ddaeeceb'), 'title': 'Learning from the spirit of the two sessions in 2024: high-quality development, high-level security', 'author': 'Zhao Wei', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13InuIp4Yrcg8C4foQEhhdIc=', 'researcher': '赵伟', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13InuIp4Yrcg8C4foQEhhdIc=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625654426_1.pdf?1709714424000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625654426_1.pdf?1709714424000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Learning from the spirit of the two sessions in 2024: high-quality development, high-level security', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟', 'originalContent': '事件：2024 年 3 月 5 日，国务院总理李强代表国务院，向十四届全国人大二次会议作政府工作报告。点评：一、经济增长目标不低，政策合力推动高质量发展2024 年经济增长预期目标为 5%左右，与 2023 年持平。在 2023 年经济增速 5.2%的高基数上， 2024 年 5%左右的经济增速目标不低。 CPI 增速与 2023 年目标一致、仍为 3%左右。新增就业人数目标上调至 1200 万人以上，考虑到 2024年高校毕业生人数增多，全年城镇调查失业率目标仍设定为 5.5%左右。经济形势研判延续 2023 年中央经济工作会议内容。报告指出当前经济发展面临“有效需求不足，部分行业产能过剩，社会预期偏弱，风险隐患仍然较多，国内大循环存在堵点，国际循环存在干扰”等问题和挑战。要求“坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破”， 中央层面首提“谨慎出台收缩性抑制性举措，清理和废止有悖于高质量发展的政策规定”。中央财政后续或持续发力。 2024 年赤字率拟按 3%安排，较 2023 年初的 2.8%赤字率有所提升、低于 2023 年底调增万亿国债后 3.8%的赤字率；但同时报告也指出“拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债”， 2024 年先发行 1 万亿元。超长期特别国债启动发行，指向中央财政在今后将持续加力，或为长期项目建设、国家重点战略落实等提供有效支撑。二、产业体系建设为首，深化改革增强内生动力现代化产业体系建设、发展“新质生产力”为 2024 年首要任务，科教兴国战略为其提供基础支撑。“现代化产业体系建设”中， “新质生产力”自 2023 年底以来在高层会议中反复出现；前沿新兴氢能、新材料、创新药等“未来产业”被重点提及。加强高质量教育体系建设、基础研究系统布局、完善创新人才发现和培养机制等为产业发展提供支撑。2023 年以来， 政策对现代化产业体系建设的重视度持续增强。 2023 年 10 月的中央金融工作会议中多次提及 “加强对新科技、新赛道、新市场的金融支持”，将“更多金融资源用于促进科技创新、先进制造、绿色发展和中小微企业”等。可比口径下 2024 年产业类重大项目占比升至 65.7%、较 2023 年提升 2.5 个百分点。2024 年改革之年，以深化改革增强发展内生动力。本次政府工作报告对经营主体、要素配置、营商制度、财税金融体制等方面改革均有提及。 近期， 全国统一大市场建设持续部署，破除“地方保护”壁垒，着力推动产权保护、市场准入、公平竞争、社会信用等方面制度规则统一或可期待。新一轮财税体制改革、农村土地制度改革等亦在谋划推进中。三、“高水平安全”首次提出、保障高质量发展2024 年，“安全”仍是政策重要主线之一，且内含更加丰富。 2024 年政府工作报告中，“安全”词频相较去年明显提升、词频居前，报告首提“高水平安全”、与“高质量发展”对应。根据报告内容，促进高水平安全，后续政策重心或在处置风险隐患、健全长效机制、加强重点领域安全能力建设三方面。房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等风险要“标本兼治”。“治本”则或涉及相关领域机制体系的完善建设。报告中提及的“重大风险处置统筹协调机制”如城市房地产融资协调机制，“风险防控长效机制”如“保障+市场”的住房供应体系，“全覆盖、无例外”的金融监管体系等或是后续政策重点。加强重点领域安全能力建设涉及粮食安全、能源安全、产业链供应链安全、国家安全等方面。报告中，粮食安全重点在于完善粮食生产、收储、加工等体系；能源资源安全重点提及油气、战略性矿产资源勘探开发及储备体系建设。网络、数据、产业链供应链等方面安全保障亦是重点。风险提示经济复苏不及预期，政策落地效果不及预期。', 'content': 'Event: On March 5, 2024, Premier Li Qiang, on behalf of the State Council, delivered a government work report to the Second Session of the 14th National People’s Congress. Comments: 1. The economic growth target is not low, and policies will work together to promote high-quality development. The expected economic growth target in 2024 is about 5%, which is the same as in 2023. Based on the high base of 5.2% economic growth in 2023, the economic growth target of around 5% in 2024 is not low. The CPI growth rate is consistent with the 2023 target and is still around 3%. The target for new employment has been raised to more than 12 million. Taking into account the increase in the number of college graduates in 2024, the annual surveyed urban unemployment rate target is still set at around 5.5%. The analysis and judgment of the economic situation continues the content of the 2023 Central Economic Work Conference. The report points out that current economic development is facing problems and challenges such as \"insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, many hidden risks, blockages in the domestic cycle, and interference in the international cycle.\" It requires \"persisting in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through advancement, and establishing first and then breaking.\" The central government first proposed \"cautiously introducing contractionary and inhibitory measures, and cleaning up and abolishing policies and regulations that are contrary to high-quality development.\" The central government may continue to make follow-up efforts. The deficit rate in 2024 is planned to be arranged at 3%, which is higher than the 2.8% deficit rate at the beginning of 2023 and lower than the 3.8% deficit rate at the end of 2023 after increasing the trillions of treasury bonds. However, the report also pointed out that \"it is planned to issue more than 1 trillion yuan in national debt for several consecutive years.\" \"Long-term special national bonds\", with an initial issuance of 1 trillion yuan in 2024. The launch of the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds indicates that the central government will continue to increase its efforts in the future, or provide effective support for long-term project construction and the implementation of key national strategies. 2. Taking the construction of the industrial system as the first priority, deepening reform, strengthening the construction of a modern industrial system with endogenous power, and developing \"new productive forces\" are the top tasks in 2024, and the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education provides basic support. In the \"construction of modern industrial system\", \"new productivity\" has appeared repeatedly in high-level meetings since the end of 2023; \"future industries\" such as cutting-edge emerging hydrogen energy, new materials, and innovative drugs have been highlighted. Strengthen the construction of high-quality education systems, layout of basic research systems, and improve innovative talent discovery and training mechanisms to provide support for industrial development. Since 2023, policies have continued to attach greater importance to the construction of a modern industrial system. The Central Financial Work Conference in October 2023 repeatedly mentioned “strengthening financial support for new technologies, new tracks, and new markets” and using “more financial resources to promote technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, green development, and small and medium-sized enterprises.” Microenterprises\" etc. On a comparable basis, the proportion of major industrial projects in 2024 will rise to 65.7%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from 2023. In 2024, the year of reform, we will deepen reform and enhance endogenous driving force for development. This government work report mentions the reform of business entities, factor allocation, business system, fiscal and taxation financial system and other aspects. Recently, the construction of a unified national market has been continuously deployed to break down the barriers of \"local protection\" and strive to promote the unification of institutional rules in aspects such as property rights protection, market access, fair competition, and social credit, which may be expected. A new round of fiscal and taxation system reform and rural land system reform are also being planned and advanced. 3. \"High-level security\" was proposed for the first time to ensure high-quality development. In 2024, \"security\" will still be one of the important main lines of policy, and its content will be richer. In the 2024 Government Work Report, the frequency of the word \"safety\" has increased significantly compared with last year, and the word frequency ranks among the top. The report first mentions \"high-level security\", which corresponds to \"high-quality development\". According to the report, to promote high-level safety, follow-up policies may focus on three aspects: dealing with hidden risks, improving long-term mechanisms, and strengthening safety capacity building in key areas. Risks such as real estate, local debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions must “treat both the symptoms and root causes.” \"Treating the root cause\" may involve improving the construction of mechanisms and systems in related fields. The \"major risk disposal overall coordination mechanism\" mentioned in the report such as the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, the \"long-term risk prevention and control mechanism\" such as the \"guarantee + market\" housing supply system, and the \"full coverage, no exceptions\" financial supervision system It may be the focus of follow-up policies. Strengthening security capacity building in key areas involves food security, energy security, industrial chain supply chain security, national security and other aspects. In the report, food security focuses on improving the grain production, storage, storage, and processing systems; energy resource security focuses on oil and gas, strategic mineral resource exploration and development, and the construction of reserve systems. Security assurance in areas such as networks, data, and industrial and supply chains is also a focus. Risks suggest that the economic recovery is not as good as expected and the effect of policy implementation is not as good as expected.', 'authorid': UUID('f440b850-2d99-508a-a4c1-451305ac80fd'), 'sentimentScore': 0.21616072859615088, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '81HFPLS35NMTMOI7BTBE7K0733VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:59:42 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '81HFPLS35NMTMOI7BTBE7K0733VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('45238bcf-e555-5110-8822-06deac8a611b'), 'title': 'Macro research report: Several understandings of the government work report', 'author': 'Yang Weiqiu, Meng Zijun', 'orgName': '国元证券', 'orgCode': '10001043', 'orgSName': '国元证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13NRukx6arnli1jvKIzgNIfE=', 'researcher': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000176619', '11000337831'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13NRukx6arnli1jvKIzgNIfE=', 'site': 'Guoyuan Securities', 'originalSite': '国元证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625654433_1.pdf?1709714874000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625654433_1.pdf?1709714874000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro research report: Several understandings of the government work report', 'originalAuthor': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'originalContent': '报告要点：2024年GDP目标增速5%左右，“左右”二字为波动留出了空间。报告指出，2024年单位GDP能耗目标降低2.5%左右。2021~2023年，单位GDP能耗同比增速分别为-2.7%、-0.1%、-0.5%，可见这一目标并不低。在短期内，降低能耗和经济增长之间是存在些许冲突的，毕竟高耗能项��能更快地拉动经济增长，但长期来看，经济增长的同时兼顾能耗才更加可持续。财政端的发力是当前需要关注的重点。当前经济的核心问题是央行宽松的货币政策无法带动实体部门信贷需求的扩张，即经济堵点在宽信用上，而不在宽货币上。财政目标方面：1）赤字率目标3%，2023年为3.8%（2023Q4增发国债一万亿）；2）地方政府专项债目标规模3.9万亿，规模是历史之最，按照满额发行计算，同比增速较2023年是下降的；3）新增发行1万亿特别国债，与2023年相比边际上没有变化，只是2023发行的额度有一半在今年使用；4）对于连续多年发行特别国债，我们认为是出于既要守住《马斯特里赫特条约》中所设定的3%的赤字率安全红线，又要稳定经济的考虑；5）综合来看，预计基建增速基本平稳，总体在相对高位区域，这也为地产的下滑腾挪出一些空间。CPI目标3%，城镇新增就业1200万人以上，失业率5.5%左右，均与2023年的目标基本一致。就业和物价是经济的滞后指标，就业尤其是青年人口的就业改善，以及物价水平的稳定上涨，都依赖于宏观经济的改善。2024年政府工作的首要任务是大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力，产业链的优化升级和新兴产业的培育发展仍是今年的重中之重。对于消费，报告指出要着力扩大内需，积极培育新的消费增长点，推动传统耐用消费品的以旧换新。对于房地产，报告指出要适应新型城镇化发展趋势和房地产市场供求关系变化，加快构建房地产发展新模式。资产配置上，在宽信用出现明显效果之前，债券仍然是占优资产，建议维持高杠杆、长久期，如果对行情反转非常警惕的话，可以适度注重一下持仓的流动性问题，把部分30Y超长期券换仓到10Y长期券。风险提示：宏观政策落地不及预期。', 'content': 'Key points of the report: The GDP target growth rate in 2024 is about 5%, and the word \"left or right\" leaves room for fluctuations. The report points out that the energy consumption target per unit of GDP in 2024 will be reduced by about 2.5%. From 2021 to 2023, the year-on-year growth rates of energy consumption per unit of GDP are -2.7%, -0.1%, and -0.5% respectively, which shows that this goal is not low. In the short term, there is some conflict between reducing energy consumption and economic growth. After all, high-energy-consuming projects can drive economic growth faster. But in the long term, it is more sustainable to take into account energy consumption while economic growth. The financial side is the focus that needs to be paid attention to now. The core problem of the current economy is that the central bank\\'s loose monetary policy cannot drive the expansion of credit demand in the real sector. That is, the economic bottleneck lies in loosening credit, not loosening money. In terms of fiscal targets: 1) The deficit rate target is 3%, and it will be 3.8% in 2023 (an additional treasury bond issuance of 1 trillion in 2023Q4); 2) The target size of local government special bonds is 3.9 trillion, the largest scale in history. Calculated based on full issuance, year-on-year The growth rate is declining compared with 2023; 3) The newly issued 1 trillion special government bonds will have no marginal change compared with 2023, except that half of the quota issued in 2023 will be used this year; 4) For the issuance of special government bonds for many consecutive years, We believe this is due to the need to maintain the safety red line of 3% deficit rate set in the Maastricht Treaty and to stabilize the economy; 5) Overall, the growth rate of infrastructure is expected to be basically stable. Generally speaking, it is in a relatively high area, which also makes some room for the decline of real estate prices. The CPI target is 3%, more than 12 million new urban jobs will be created, and the unemployment rate is about 5.5%, which are basically consistent with the 2023 target. Employment and prices are lagging indicators of the economy. The improvement of employment, especially the employment of the youth population, and the steady rise in price levels all depend on the improvement of the macro economy. The government\\'s primary task in 2024 is to vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerate the development of new productive forces. The optimization and upgrading of the industrial chain and the cultivation and development of emerging industries remain the top priorities this year. Regarding consumption, the report points out that efforts should be made to expand domestic demand, actively cultivate new consumption growth points, and promote the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones. For real estate, the report points out that it is necessary to adapt to new urbanization development trends and changes in the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market, and accelerate the construction of a new real estate development model. In terms of asset allocation, before the credit relaxation has obvious effects, bonds will still be the dominant asset. It is recommended to maintain high leverage and long term. If you are very wary of the market reversal, you can pay appropriate attention to the liquidity of the position and invest some of the 30Y over-the-top assets. Exchange long-term bonds to 10Y long-term bonds. Risk warning: The implementation of macro policies falls short of expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('06a6231a-b667-541e-b1fd-3c96f32864dc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8693753127008677, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'SSMN4B7HTQ4THSND5C0FG81QN3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:59:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'SSMN4B7HTQ4THSND5C0FG81QN3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9a34d0aa-49df-5539-98fb-5c513742d8e7'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the \"Government Work Report\": Taking the initiative with flexibility', 'author': 'Qin Tai', 'orgName': '华金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000134', 'orgSName': '华金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13NyaWOdceVY99GEnW3uC8xw=', 'researcher': '秦泰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249937'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13NyaWOdceVY99GEnW3uC8xw=', 'site': 'Huajin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625654429_1.pdf?1709714539000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625654429_1.pdf?1709714539000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the \"Government Work Report\": Taking the initiative with flexibility', 'originalAuthor': '秦泰', 'originalContent': '经济增长目标5%左右，充分体现积极进取、奋发有为的要求。可持续增长和结构优化都不能一蹴而就，揠苗助长可能导致经济新的泡沫化风险，因此也需考虑“经济增长潜力和支撑条件”，稍高于内生动能的目标可以通过经济政策的和衷共济、协同发力而转化为可持续的内生动能强化，是最为合理的选择。财政：3%+3.9万亿+1万亿，积极扩张的决心力度比看起来更大。尽管一般预算赤字率仅有3%低于预期，但新增专项债3.9万亿规模大幅超出预期，1万亿超长期特别国债的安排也并不仅限于今年而可能持续数年连续增量发行，财政积极扩张的决心和力度比赤字率单个指标看起来的要大得多。一般公共预算支出增长4.0%左右，但考虑到2023年增发万亿国债中有一半已经提前于去年底前支出，调整后2024年财政支出同比增速可达7.8%左右，足以保证对政府消费、预算内投资、设备更新和消费品以旧换新的财政支持力度。考虑到一般公共预算缺口比我们之前预测水平稍窄，同时政府性基金预算或可提供稍大于我们预测的向一般公共预算调入资金支持，实际财政扩张的力度和决心远大于赤字率单个数据所呈现的强度。维持更新换新财政支持力度和结构预测，个税减税概率有所下降。尽管并未就财政政策支持“推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造”的具体方式给出详细阐述，但基于对财政扩张力度较大的分析，我们维持可能实施包括鼓励先进生产设备加速折旧、加计折旧或直接给予一定的财政补贴等在内的措施的预测。由于一般公共预算赤字率低于我们此前预期，当前形势下超预期的专项债规模又难以腾挪至一般公共预算进行减税操作，因此我们认为年内实施增量个税减税的概率下降。但考虑到跨年资金腾挪的灵活度仍然很高，我们仍对个税减税是抱有一定期待的。货币金融：配合性宽松可期，增强资本市场内在稳定性。货币政策几乎全部延续了此前会议的定调，在增强宏观经济政策一致性的方向性要求下，货币政策积极主动配合财政政策的合理力度的宽松操作可期，预计实施充足的长期流动性投放并引导融资成本逐步有序下降，同时维持人民币汇率基本稳定是2024年全年的货币政策基调。此外，报告还罕见明确提到“增强资本市场内在稳定性”，凸显出在经济结构优化的长期发展阶段，长期资本预期的稳定性得到了中央经济政策的高度重视。供给侧：加快发展新质生产力，提高全要素生产率。发展新质生产力在经济发展战略层面的落脚点是什么？《报告》明确提出最终目标是提高全要素生产率，这意味着传统粗放性外延式的工业经济要持续不���向科技创新推动的产业创新跃升，债务刺激的经济增长发展模式也不是政策优先选项。三大主攻方向：推动产业链供应链优化升级，积极培育新兴产业和未来产业，以及深入推进数字经济创新发展。房地产市场：加大保障房建设，完善商品房基础性制度。供给侧再次强调“稳妥有序处置风险隐患”，“健全风险防控长效机制”，重申“对不同所有制房地产企业合理融资需求要一视同仁给予支持”，符合我们预期的仍将强调保交付、去库存和对应的白名单融资保障的政策方向。需求侧提出“适应新型城镇化发展趋势”，在进一步明确要求“加大保障性住房建设和供给”的基础上，新增“完善商品房相关基础性制度”的要求，房地产市场从商品房为主向保障房+商品房“一轨拆两轨”的新发展模式转型路径呼之欲出。基建投资明确向效率较高地区倾斜，或成地方债务化解核心思路。三大新政策导向令人耳目一新：新型基建带动放大效应，加强预算内投资建设，向投资效率较高的地区倾斜，或将成为地方债务风险化解的核心思路，也可对基建投资全国一盘棋的总体增速起到重要的高效稳定作用。化解债务风险强度提升的同时，对新型基建、重大项目、防灾减灾工程和高效率投资区域的资金支持力度进一步加大，综合分析，维持广义基建投资全年同比增长10%左右的较为乐观的预测不变。风险提示：稳增长政策力度不及预期风险。', 'content': 'The economic growth target is about 5%, which fully reflects the requirements of being proactive and enterprising. Neither sustainable growth nor structural optimization can be achieved overnight, and encouraging growth may lead to the risk of new economic bubbles. Therefore, \"economic growth potential and supporting conditions\" must also be considered. Goals that are slightly higher than endogenous kinetic energy can be achieved through concerted efforts and coordinated development of economic policies. It is the most reasonable choice to transform the energy into sustainable endogenous kinetic energy enhancement. Finance: 3% + 3.9 trillion + 1 trillion. The determination to actively expand is stronger than it seems. Although the general budget deficit rate is only 3% lower than expected, the scale of new special bonds of 3.9 trillion yuan significantly exceeds expectations. The arrangement of 1 trillion ultra-long-term special government bonds is not limited to this year, but may continue to be issued continuously for several years. The determination and intensity of active fiscal expansion are much greater than what a single indicator of the deficit ratio would suggest. General public budget expenditures will increase by about 4.0%. However, considering that half of the trillions in additional national debt issued in 2023 has been spent in advance before the end of last year, the adjusted year-on-year growth rate of fiscal expenditures in 2024 can reach about 7.8%, which is enough to ensure that government consumption, Financial support for within-budget investments, equipment upgrades and trade-ins of consumer goods. Considering that the general public budget gap is slightly narrower than our previous forecast, and the government fund budget may be able to provide slightly larger financial support to the general public budget than we forecast, the actual intensity and determination of fiscal expansion are much greater than what the single data on the deficit rate indicates. The intensity of the presentation. Maintaining the updated fiscal support intensity and structure forecast, the probability of individual tax cuts has declined. Although there is no detailed elaboration on the specific ways in which fiscal policy supports \"promoting the updating and technological transformation of various production equipment, service equipment\", based on the analysis of strong fiscal expansion, we maintain that possible implementation includes encouraging the acceleration of advanced production equipment. Forecast of measures including depreciation, added depreciation or direct financial subsidies. Since the general public budget deficit rate is lower than our previous expectations, and the larger-than-expected special debt scale under the current situation is difficult to transfer to the general public budget for tax reduction operations, we believe that the probability of implementing incremental personal tax cuts during the year has decreased. However, considering that the flexibility of fund transfer during the New Year period is still very high, we still have certain expectations for personal income tax cuts. Monetary and Finance: Coordinated easing is expected to enhance the inherent stability of the capital market. Monetary policy has almost entirely continued the tone set at the previous meeting. Under the directional requirement to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policies, monetary policy can be actively and proactively coordinated with fiscal policy to achieve reasonable easing operations. It is expected to implement sufficient long-term liquidity injection and Guiding a gradual and orderly decline in financing costs while maintaining a basically stable RMB exchange rate is the tone of monetary policy throughout 2024. In addition, the report rarely explicitly mentions \"enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market,\" highlighting that in the long-term development stage of economic structure optimization, the stability of long-term capital expectations has received great attention from the central economic policy. Supply side: Accelerate the development of new productive forces and improve total factor productivity. What is the goal of developing new productive forces at the strategic level of economic development? The \"Report\" clearly states that the ultimate goal is to increase total factor productivity, which means that the traditional extensive and extended industrial economy must continue to leap towards industrial innovation driven by technological innovation, and the debt-stimulated economic growth development model is not a policy priority. Three main directions: promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial and supply chains, actively cultivate emerging industries and future industries, and further promote the innovative development of the digital economy. Real estate market: Increase the construction of affordable housing and improve the basic system for commercial housing. The supply side once again emphasized \"proper and orderly handling of hidden risks\" and \"improving the long-term mechanism for risk prevention and control\", and reiterated that \"the reasonable financing needs of real estate companies with different ownerships must be supported equally\". In line with our expectations, the emphasis will still be on ensuring delivery and eliminating Policy direction for inventory and corresponding whitelist financing guarantees. On the demand side, it is proposed to \"adapt to the development trend of new urbanization\". On the basis of further clarifying the requirement to \"increase the construction and supply of affordable housing\", a new requirement is added to \"improving the basic systems related to commercial housing\". The real estate market has shifted from being dominated by commercial housing to The new development model transformation path of \"one track and two tracks\" of affordable housing + commercial housing is about to emerge. Infrastructure investment is clearly tilted towards areas with higher efficiency, which may become the core idea for resolving local debt. The three new policy directions are refreshing: new infrastructure will drive amplification effects, strengthen budgetary investment and construction, and tilt towards regions with higher investment efficiency. This may become the core idea for resolving local debt risks, and it can also provide an overall picture of the national chess game of infrastructure investment. Growth rate plays an important role in efficiency and stability. While resolving the increase in debt risk intensity, financial support for new infrastructure, major projects, disaster prevention and reduction projects, and high-efficiency investment areas has been further increased. Comprehensive analysis shows that the overall year-on-year growth rate for generalized infrastructure investment is expected to be around 10%. The forecast remains unchanged. Risk warning: There is a risk that the policy to stabilize growth is less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('ae91a726-1e5a-5a58-8cc8-85a64f6c36b2'), 'sentimentScore': 0.28615731932222843, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'QLGERMSEF999VTDRQ5FCPEUQL3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:59:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'QLGERMSEF999VTDRQ5FCPEUQL3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('439aa3d7-56ce-5573-b372-32bda50bd72f'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": This year\\'s 5% target is more high-quality', 'author': 'Y U and X UN,Amber Zhou', 'orgName': '海通国际证券集团有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001968', 'orgSName': '海通国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13EfTB8u+48dk73KEdSRz8H8=', 'researcher': 'Yugen Xun,Amber Zhou', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000406834', '11000355042'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=UQeAbgJXWwpA8lkf1CS13EfTB8u+48dk73KEdSRz8H8=', 'site': 'Haitong International Securities Group Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '海通国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625652148_1.pdf?1709717786000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403061625652148_1.pdf?1709717786000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\": This year\\'s 5% target is more high-quality', 'originalAuthor': 'Yugen Xun,Amber Zhou', 'originalContent': '2024 年 3 月 5 日，十四届全国人大二次会议在北京召开，李强总理代表国务院在会议上作《政府工作报告》。我们对主要内容的理解如下：2024 年 GDP 目标增速 5%左右， CPI 增速目标 3%左右，相比 2023 年保持不变。值得关注的是， 2023 年是基于 2022 年较低基数的情况下设定的增速目标，这也意味着今年的增速目标更显高质量要求。 政策基调方面，强调“坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破”。 要“多出有利于稳预期、稳增长、稳就业的政策，谨慎出台收缩性抑制性举措，清理和废止有悖于高质量发展的政策规定”。 我们认为，今年积极的宏观政策仍会延续， 但规模和力度“适度”。财政政策方面，强调“适度加力、提质增效”。今年财政赤字率拟按 3%安排，预算赤字规模 4.06 万亿元， 拟安排新增地方专项债 3.9 万亿元，比去年增加 1000 亿元。 从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行 1 万亿元。 我们认为，今年财政政策会适度发力稳增长， 节奏上或主要集中在二、三季度。广义财政规模的变化要持续跟踪。 货币政策方面，强调“灵活适度、 精准有效”，“保持流动性合理充裕”。我们认为，预计 2024 年货币政策或进一步稳健宽松， 政策利率仍有调整空间。扩大内需方面，一方面， 促进消费稳定增长。从“增加收入、优化供给、减少限制性措施” 等方面综合施策。培育壮大新型消费，稳定和扩大传统消费。另一方面， 积极扩大有效投资。 重点支持科技创新、新型基础设施、节能减排降碳。 此外，全面取消制造业领域外资准入限制措施。结构性政策方面体现“稳中求进”。一是，房地产政策要“稳”。报告强调优化房地产政策， “加快构建房地产发展新模式”，“加大保障性住房建设和供给”。 我们认为，房地产领域的政策重在托底，不是强刺激需求。 同时，化解风险是今年的重要工作，“标本兼治化解房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等风险”。二是，产业政策要“进”。在产业政策方面，“大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力”。制定支持数字经济高质量发展政策。积极培育新兴产业和未来产业。此外，“启动第二轮土地承包到期后再延长 30 年整省试点”值得关注。资本市场方面，报告指出要“增强资本市场内在稳定性”。 我们认为这需要大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度。一方面，提高上市公司质量是资本市场平稳发展的内在要求，应支持上市公司注入优质资产、市场化并购重组，激发经营活力，还应深化退市机制，加速优胜劣汰；并引导上市公司通过回购注销、加大分红等方式回报投资者，提升投资价值。另一方面，长期以来， A 股市场面临机构投资者占比不高的问题，未来还需加快养老金第二、三支柱入市速度，提高权益投资比例，推动资本市场长期稳定发展。风险提示： 政策不及预期', 'content': 'On March 5, 2024, the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress was held in Beijing. Premier Li Qiang delivered the \"Government Work Report\" on behalf of the State Council at the meeting. Our understanding of the main content is as follows: the GDP growth target in 2024 is about 5%, and the CPI growth target is about 3%, which remains unchanged compared to 2023. It is worth noting that the growth target for 2023 is set based on a lower base in 2022, which also means that this year’s growth target is more high-quality. In terms of policy tone, it emphasizes \"persisting in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through advancement, and establishing first and then breaking.\" It is necessary to \"develop more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, stabilizing growth, and stabilizing employment, cautiously introduce contractionary and inhibitory measures, and clean up and abolish policies and regulations that are contrary to high-quality development.\" We believe that this year\\'s proactive macro policies will continue, but the scale and intensity will be \"appropriate.\" In terms of fiscal policy, the emphasis is on “appropriate efforts to improve quality and efficiency.” This year\\'s fiscal deficit rate is planned to be 3%, with a budget deficit of 4.06 trillion yuan. It is planned to increase local special bonds by 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan from last year. Starting from this year, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years specifically for the implementation of major national strategies and the construction of security capabilities in key areas. This year, 1 trillion yuan will be issued first. We believe that this year\\'s fiscal policy will make moderate efforts to stabilize growth, and the pace may be mainly concentrated in the second and third quarters. Changes in the broad fiscal scale must be continuously tracked. In terms of monetary policy, it emphasizes \"flexibility, appropriateness, precision and effectiveness\" and \"maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity\". We believe that monetary policy is expected to be further prudent and easing in 2024, and there is still room for adjustment in policy interest rates. In terms of expanding domestic demand, on the one hand, it will promote stable growth in consumption. Implement comprehensive policies from the aspects of \"increasing income, optimizing supply, and reducing restrictive measures\". Cultivate and expand new consumption, stabilize and expand traditional consumption. On the other hand, we should actively expand effective investment. Focus on supporting technological innovation, new infrastructure, energy conservation and emission reduction. In addition, restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector will be completely lifted. Structural policies reflect “making progress while maintaining stability”. First, real estate policies must be \"stable.\" The report emphasizes optimizing real estate policies, \"accelerating the construction of a new model of real estate development\" and \"increasing the construction and supply of affordable housing.\" We believe that policies in the real estate sector focus on supporting the bottom line, rather than strongly stimulating demand. At the same time, resolving risks is an important task this year, \"treating both the symptoms and root causes to resolve risks in real estate, local debt, small and medium-sized financial institutions, etc.\" Second, industrial policy must be “advanced”. In terms of industrial policy, \"vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerate the development of new productive forces.\" Formulate policies to support the high-quality development of the digital economy. Actively cultivate emerging industries and future industries. In addition, “the launch of a province-wide pilot project to extend the second round of land contracts for 30 years after expiration” deserves attention. In terms of capital markets, the report pointed out that it is necessary to \"enhance the inherent stability of the capital market.\" We believe that this requires vigorously improving the quality and investment value of listed companies and increasing the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market. On the one hand, improving the quality of listed companies is an inherent requirement for the stable development of the capital market. Listed companies should be supported to inject high-quality assets, market-oriented mergers and acquisitions, and stimulate operational vitality. The delisting mechanism should also be deepened to accelerate the survival of the fittest; and guide listed companies through buybacks. Repay investors through cancellation, increase in dividends, etc. to increase investment value. On the other hand, the A-share market has long faced the problem of a low proportion of institutional investors. In the future, it is necessary to speed up the entry of the second and third pillars of pension funds into the market, increase the proportion of equity investment, and promote the long-term stable development of the capital market. Risk warning: Policy does not meet expectations', 'authorid': UUID('08f2a24b-7f7b-53bc-8351-0985cffe40db'), 'sentimentScore': 0.00657469779253006, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '0P56HINKSV58T915PAHIF9OEFVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:59:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '0P56HINKSV58T915PAHIF9OEFVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('990ca5cc-c6c6-5da4-b66f-d08d0aa9178a'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the 2024 Two Sessions Government Work Report: Be proactive and put science and technology first', 'author': 'Hu Shaohua, Liu Sijia', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-06', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYET5oBgkPKfRZl08owHMNG4=', 'researcher': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249934', '11000257478'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYET5oBgkPKfRZl08owHMNG4=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625537373_1.pdf?1709716587000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625537373_1.pdf?1709716587000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the 2024 Two Sessions Government Work Report: Be proactive and put science and technology first', 'originalAuthor': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'originalContent': '事件：2024年3月5日，十四届全国人大第二次会议在北京举行，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告。核心观点：GDP增长目标设定在5%左右，“体现了积极进取、奋发有为的要求”，反映出2024年稳增长仍积极。在基数增加的情况下实现5%左右的增长目标，仍需相对积极的政策支持。财政政策上，虽然赤字率未上调，但预算支出、专项债均继续增加，尤其是1万亿元特别国债响应了市场的呼声，而且今后可能会持续发行，重大战略方向上我们认为对科技相关产业的投入可能会加大。科技为先：重点任务将新质生产力放在了第一位，长期发展主线得到了进一步的巩固。扩大内需在促进消费、增加投资，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案可能是重点。绿色低碳、民生保障等仍是发展重点。此外统筹发展与安全，三大风险领域的化解仍将持续推进。经济回升向好，但持续回升的基础还不稳固。政府工作报告指出我国发展面临的环境仍是战略机遇和风险挑战并存，有利条件强于不利因素。我国具有显著的制度优势、超大规模市场的需求优势、产业体系完备的供给优势、高素质劳动者众多的人才优势，经济回升向好、长期向好的基本趋势没有改变也不会改变。同时要坚持底线思维，做好应对各种风险挑战的充分准备。国际上来看，外需仍存不确定性，地缘政治局势仍有风险；国内来看，“我国经济持续回升向好的基础还不稳固”，具体表现在“有效需求不足，部分行业产能过剩，社会预期偏弱，部分中小企业经营困难，就业总量压力和结构性矛盾并存”。5%左右的增长目标并非易事，显示稳增长仍积极。GDP增长目标设定在5%左右，符合市场预期。报告指出增长目标“体现了积极进取、奋发有为的要求”，“稳是大局和基础”，反映出2024年稳增长仍积极。2023年5.2%的GDP增速是在3%的低基数上实现的，2023年四季度剔除基数效应的GDP两年平均增速较三季度已有所下滑，2024年经济增长面临的是相对正常的基数。在地产尚未明显好转，国内消费恢复斜率偏缓，海外高利率环境对外需的影响仍存不确定性的情况下，为了实现增长目标，我们认为政策整体取向仍然较为积极，正如政府工作报告中所提到的“进是方向和动力，该立的要积极主动立起来，该破的要在立的基础上坚决破，特别是要在转方式、调结构、提质量、增效益上积极进取”。宏观政策。积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效。赤字率拟按3%安排，一般公共预算支出规模28.5万亿元，比上年增加1.1万亿元。拟安排地方政府专项债券3.9万亿元，比上年增加1000亿元。从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，今年先发行1万亿元。另外，去年增发的国债中有5000亿元留在今年使用，中央财政在加力，估计PSL也会继续增加。不过，当前地方土地出让收入拖累较大，化债牵制仍在，地方广义财政发力空间可能相对有限。未来货币政策有空间。货币政策灵活适度、精准有效，保持流动性合理充裕，社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配，延续去年中央经济工作会议的精神。年初以来，央行超预期降准50个BP，5年期以上LPR下调25个BP，未来政策仍有超预期可能。总体来看，国内目前通胀水平相对较低，实际利率水平位于高位，但由于海外美联储降息预期推迟，汇率方面压力仍然存在。在美联储开启降息之后，我们认为货币政策空间将会进一步打开，窗口期或在下半年。大力推进现代化产业体系建设，发展新质生产力。报告指出，推动产业链供应链优化升级，增强产业链供应链韧性和竞争力。加快推动高水平科技自立自强，全面提升自主创新能力。从具体产业方向来看，一方面，报告将新能源汽车、氢能、新材料、创新药、商业航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业，以及量子技术、生命科学等未来产业作为着力发展重点，有助于抓住新一轮产业变革机遇，培育经济增长新引擎，相关行业有望保持较高投资增速。另一方面，积极推进数字产业化、产业数字化，加强数字技术和实体经济的融合，推动传统产业向智能化方向发展，可以使传统产业在稳定总量的同时提升质量。着力扩大内需：促进消费稳定增长，积极扩大有效投资。消费方面���从“增加收入、优化供给、减少限制性措施”的政策方向来看，未来提升城乡居民收入的举措有望增加，商品和服务质量或将继续提高。新能源汽车、家电等相关领域或仍有较大提升空间。新一轮大规模设备更新改造有望带动制造业投资保持一定强度；报告提出“进一步拆除各种藩篱”，未来民间投资环境有望继续改善。推进绿色低碳发展，推动外贸质升量稳。报告提到，大力发展绿色低碳经济，推进产业结构、能源结构、交通运输结构、城乡建设发展绿色转型。产业结构、能源结构、交通运输结构、城乡建设发展是绿色转型的四大方向。推动外贸质升量稳，加大外资吸引力度。报告提到，加大吸引外资力度，继续缩减外资准入负面清单，全面取消制造业领域外资准入限制措施，放宽电信、医疗等服务业市场准入。中国制造业市场或将更加开放，为外资企业提供更多机会和空间，同时也有助于推动中国制造业技术创新和产业升级。切实保障和改善民生。报告提到，多措并举稳就业促增收，加大促就业专项政策力度。居民医保人均财政补助标准提高30元，城乡居民基础养老金月最低标准提高20元。加强老年用品和服务供给，大力发展银发经济。多渠道增加城乡居民收入，强化就业政策举措，有助于增强居民消费能力和意愿，巩固经济回升向好态势。此外，我国老龄人口规模较大，医疗、养老等产业具备长期发展空间。统筹发展与安全。报告指出要标本兼治化解房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等风险。房地产方面，加快构建房地产发展新模式，优化房地产政策，实施三大工程，加上新型城镇化建设等，估计房地产企业风险会得到进一步化解。地方债务方面，进一步落实一揽子化债方案，妥善化解存量债务风险，严防新增债务风险，建立同高质量发展相适应的政府债务管理机制，地方债风险估计将逐步降低，不过可能会对传统基建投资形成一定压力，但后续仍需跟踪。风险提示：发达国家通胀超预期；政策落地不及预期。', 'content': '事件：2024年3月5日，十四届全国人大第二次会议在北京举行，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告。核心观点：GDP增长目标设定在5%左右，“体现了积极进取、奋发有为的要求”，反映出2024年稳增长仍积极。在基数增加的情况下实现5%左右的增长目标，仍需相对积极的政策支持。财政政策上，虽然赤字率未上调，但预算支出、专项债均继续增加，尤其是1万亿元特别国债响应了市场的呼声，而且今后可能会持续发行，重大战略方向上我们认为对科技相关产业的投入可能会加大。科技为先：重点任务将新质生产力放在了第一位，长期发展主线得到了进一步的巩固。扩大内需在促进消费、增加投资，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案可能是重点。绿色低碳、民生保障等仍是发展重点。此外统筹发展与安全，三大风险领域的化解仍将持续推进。经济回升向好，但持续回升的基础还不稳固。政府工作报告指出我国发展面临的环境仍是战略机遇和风险挑战并存，有利条件强于不利因素。我国具有显著的制度优势、超大规模市场的需求优势、产业体系完备的供给优势、高素质劳动者众多的人才优势，经济回升向好、长期向好的基本趋势没有改变也不会改变。同时要坚持底线思维，做好应对各种风险挑战的充分准备。国际上来看，外需仍存不确定性，地缘政治局势仍有风险；国内来看，“我国经济持续回升向好的基础还不稳固”，具体表现在“有效需求不足，部分行业产能过剩，社会预期偏弱，部分中小企业经营困难，就业总量压力和结构性矛盾并存”。5%左右的增长目标并非易事，显示稳增长仍积极。GDP增长目标设定在5%左右，符合市场预期。报告指出增长目标“体现了积极进取、奋发有为的要求”，“稳是大局和基础”，反映出2024年稳增长仍积极。2023年5.2%的GDP增速是在3%的低基数上实现的，2023年四季度剔除基数效应的GDP两年平均增速较三季度已有所下滑，2024年经济增长面临的是相对正常的基数。在地产尚未明显好转，国内消费恢复斜率偏缓，海外高利率环境对外需的影响仍存不确定性的情况下，为了实现增长目标，我们认为政策整体取向仍然较为积极，正如政府工作报告中所提到的“进是方向和动力，该立的要积极主动立起来，该破的要在立的基础上坚决破，特别是要在转方式、调结构、提质量、增效益上积极进取”。宏观政策。积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效。赤字率拟按3%���排，一般公共预算支出规模28.5万亿元，比上年增加1.1万亿元。拟安排地方政府专项债券3.9万亿元，比上年增加1000亿元。从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，今年先发行1万亿元。另外，去年增发的国债中有5000亿元留在今年使用，中央财政在加力，估计PSL也会继续增加。不过，当前地方土地出让收入拖累较大，化债牵制仍在，地方广义财政发力空间可能相对有限。未来货币政策有空间。货币政策灵活适度、精准有效，保持流动性合理充裕，社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配，延续去年中央经济工作会议的精神。年初以来，央行超预期降准50个BP，5年期以上LPR下调25个BP，未来政策仍有超预期可能。总体来看，国内目前通胀水平相对较低，实际利率水平位于高位，但由于海外美联储降息预期推迟，汇率方面压力仍然存在。在美联储开启降息之后，我们认为货币政策空间将会进一步打开，窗口期或在下半年。大力推进现代化产业体系建设，发展新质生产力。报告指出，推动产业链供应链优化升级，增强产业链供应链韧性和竞争力。加快推动高水平科技自立自强，全面提升自主创新能力。从具体产业方向来看，一方面，报告将新能源汽车、氢能、新材料、创新药、商业航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业，以及量子技术、生命科学等未来产业作为着力发展重点，有助于抓住新一轮产业变革机遇，培育经济增长新引擎，相关行业有望保持较高投资增速。另一方面，积极推进数字产业化、产业数字化，加强数字技术和实体经济的融合，推动传统产业向智能化方向发展，可以使传统产业在稳定总量的同时提升质量。着力扩大内需：促进消费稳定增长，积极扩大有效投资。消费方面，从“增加收入、优化供给、减少限制性措施”的政策方向来看，未来提升城乡居民收入的举措有望增加，商品和服务质量或将继续提高。新能源汽车、家电等相关领域或仍有较大提升空间。新一轮大规模设备更新改造有望带动制造业投资保持一定强度；报告提出“进一步拆除各种藩篱”，未来民间投资环境有望继续改善。推进绿色低碳发展，推动外贸质升量稳。报告提到，大力发展绿色低碳经济，推进产业结构、能源结构、交通运输结构、城乡建设发展绿色转型。产业结构、能源结构、交通运输结构、城乡建设发展是绿色转型的四大方向。推动外贸质升量稳，加大外资吸引力度。报告提到，加大吸引外资力度，继续缩减外资准入负面清单，全面取消制造业领域外资准入限制措施，放宽电信、医疗等服务业市场准入。中国制造业市场或将更加开放，为外资企业提供更多机会和空间，同时也有助于推动中国制造业技术创新和产业升级。切实保障和改善民生。报告提到，多措并举稳就业促增收，加大促就业专项政策力度。居民医保人均财政补助标准提高30元，城乡居民基础养老金月最低标准提高20元。加强老年用品和服务供给，大力发展银发经济。多渠道增加城乡居民收入，强化就业政策举措，有助于增强居民消费能力和意愿，巩固经济回升向好态势。此外，我国老龄人口规模较大，医疗、养老等产业具备长期发展空间。统筹发展与安全。报告指出要标本兼治化解房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等风险。房地产方面，加快构建房地产发展新模式，优化房地产政策，实施三大工程，加上新型城镇化建设等，估计房地产企业风险会得到进一步化解。地方债务方面，进一步落实一揽子化债方案，妥善化解存量债务风险，严防新增债务风险，建立同高质量发展相适应的政府债务管理机制，地方债风险估计将逐步降低，不过可能会对传统基建投资形成一定压力，但后续仍需跟踪。风险提示：发达国家通胀超预期；政策落地不及预期。', 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'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYC8HxCrY6k8WiX9okmlyjIk=', 'site': 'Huaxin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华鑫证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625537025_1.pdf?1709676241000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625537025_1.pdf?1709676241000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary report: Policy signals and market guidance for the two sessions in 2024', 'originalAuthor': '杨芹芹', 'originalContent': '事件3月5日，十四届全国人大二次会议在北京人民大会堂开幕。国务院总理李强代表国务院，向十四届全国人大二次会议作政府工作报告。投资要点总量政策：重点在中央加杠杆2024年两会总量政策延续稳健基调，财政重点在广义赤字扩张、货币政策强调灵活适度。财政政策延续加力，狭义赤字虽未有突破，但广义赤字明显扩张，助力中央财政加杠杆。货币政策持续适度宽松。另外，特别提到“增强资本市场内在稳定性”，表达对资本市场的关注及要求。产业政策：重点在新质生产力2024年两会的重要任务排序出现明显的变化，“现代化产业体系，加快发展新质生产力”成为首位，“科教兴国”紧随其后，去年排名第一的“着力扩大内需”今年位列第三，可见对高质量发展的重视，向创新发展要动力。产业政策以新质生产力、大规模设备更新、耐用消费品换新为主线。提及重点产业：战略性新兴产业，未来产业，数字经济A股走势：会中多整固，会后看政策成效从近十年两会前后A股走势来看：两会前多因政策预期抬升而表现较好，会中出现短期震荡跌多涨少，会后则多受稳增长总量政策和产业政策催化而上行风格轮动：两会多触发风格切换从近十年两会前后风格走势来看，会前小盘价值、小盘成长领涨，会中小盘成长抗跌，会后小盘价值先行，大盘价值、大盘成长后至行业主线：两会政策多指引全年主线两会的产业政策定调不仅影响会后行业的短期表现，更是对全年主线行情的指引。后续建议关注中央加杠杆和新质生产力两大方向。风险提示（1）政策落地不及预期（2）国内经济不及预期（3）外部风险冲击加剧', 'content': 'Incident On March 5, the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress opened in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. On behalf of the State Council, Premier Li Qiang delivered a government work report to the Second Session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress. Investment points aggregate policy: The focus is on the central government to increase leverage. The aggregate policy of the two sessions in 2024 will continue to be prudent. The fiscal focus will be on the expansion of the general deficit, and the monetary policy will emphasize flexibility and moderation. Fiscal policy continues to intensify. Although the narrow deficit has not broken through, the broad deficit has expanded significantly, helping the central government to increase leverage. Monetary policy continues to be moderately loose. In addition, \"enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market\" was specifically mentioned to express concerns and requirements for the capital market. Industrial policy: focus on new productive forces. There have been obvious changes in the ranking of important tasks during the two sessions in 2024. \"Modernizing the industrial system and accelerating the development of new productive forces\" has become the first, followed closely by \"rejuvenating the country through science and education\", and \"focusing on\" which ranked first last year. \"Expanding domestic demand\" ranked third this year, which shows that we attach great importance to high-quality development and seek motivation from innovative development. The industrial policy focuses on new productivity, large-scale equipment renewal, and replacement of durable consumer goods. Mentioned key industries: strategic emerging industries, future industries, digital economy A-share trend: Most consolidation during the meeting, policy effects will be seen after the meeting Judging from the trend of A-shares before and after the two sessions in the past ten years: Before the two sessions, most performance was due to rising policy expectations It was relatively good. There were short-term shocks during the meeting, with more falls and less rises. After the meeting, it was mostly catalyzed by policies to stabilize growth and industrial policies, leading to upward style rotation: the two sessions often triggered style switching. Judging from the style trend before and after the two sessions in the past decade, the meeting Before the meeting, small-cap value and small-cap growth led the rise. During the meeting, small-cap growth resisted the decline. After the meeting, small-cap value led first. After the meeting, large-cap value and large-cap growth came to the main line of the industry: the policies of the Two Sessions provide more guidance. The setting of industrial policies for the main line of the two sessions not only affects the meeting. The short-term performance of the industry in the future is a guide to the main line market throughout the year. Follow-up suggestions focus on the two major directions of central government leveraging and new productivity. Risk warning (1) Policy implementation falls short of expectations (2) Domestic economy falls short of expectations (3) External risk shocks intensify', 'authorid': UUID('e16b627e-fddb-5bf4-a02c-8c05aa673541'), 'sentimentScore': 0.22986433375626802, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '62NODDDPQT5QIUECSTMJ2CC2R7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 09:59:58 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '62NODDDPQT5QIUECSTMJ2CC2R7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9e5b8500-92fa-5d8f-bf1f-84b853781242'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic data outlook: Overview of macroeconomic indicator expectations from January to February 2024', 'author': 'Li Zhizhi, Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYJYuthELqTgP1i0Qs2FEeu0=', 'researcher': '李智能,董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245053', '11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYJYuthELqTgP1i0Qs2FEeu0=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625534955_1.pdf?1709674759000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625534955_1.pdf?1709674759000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic data outlook: Overview of macroeconomic indicator expectations from January to February 2024', 'originalAuthor': '李智能,董德志', 'originalContent': '事项：2024年1-2月国内宏观经济数据将在2024年3月陆续公布，国信证券经济研究所提前给出2024年1-2月主要经济数据预测。以下是2024年1-2月主要经济数据预测：结论：高基数下1-2月国内经济增速有所回落。预计2月国内CPI环比约为1.0%，CPI同比较上月明显回升至0.7%；2月PPI环比或约为零，PPI同比持平上月的-2.5%；考虑去年同期的高基数，预计1-2月工业增加值同比回落至3.5%；国内社会消费品零售总额同比回落至5.5%；固定资产投资同比回落至2.5%；国内美元计价的出口同比回落至-1.0%左右。风险提示政策调整滞后，经济增速下滑。', 'content': \"Matter: Domestic macroeconomic data for January-February 2024 will be released one after another in March 2024. Guosen Securities Economic Research Institute has given forecasts of major economic data for January-February 2024 in advance. The following is the forecast of major economic data from January to February 2024: Conclusion: Domestic economic growth has slowed down in January and February under a high base. Domestic CPI is expected to be about 1.0% month-on-month in February, and CPI has rebounded significantly to 0.7% compared with last month; PPI month-on-month in February may be about zero, and PPI is unchanged from last month's -2.5% year-on-year; considering the high base in the same period last year, it is expected that 1 -In February, industrial added value fell to 3.5% year-on-year; domestic total retail sales of consumer goods fell to 5.5% year-on-year; fixed asset investment fell to 2.5% year-on-year; domestic dollar-denominated exports fell to around -1.0% year-on-year. Risks suggest that policy adjustments are lagging behind and economic growth is declining.\", 'authorid': UUID('92623406-8214-5e94-84f7-458373c02882'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9572444530203938, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '5SUNOFT4FLN2T3EOJKFKN5H72FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:00:01 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '5SUNOFT4FLN2T3EOJKFKN5H72FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('cbd18b35-8f23-5bd0-b821-163a3acddf65'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the Government Work Report of the National Two Sessions: Seeking progress while maintaining stability and implementing economic policies', 'author': 'Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYOwjSbT/jJ4nFxJP64KRCk4=', 'researcher': '董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYOwjSbT/jJ4nFxJP64KRCk4=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625534956_1.pdf?1709675032000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625534956_1.pdf?1709675032000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the Government Work Report of the National Two Sessions: Seeking progress while maintaining stability and implementing economic policies', 'originalAuthor': '董德志', 'originalContent': '会议内容：2024年3月5日上午，十四届全国人大二次会议开幕，李强总理作政府工作报告，主要内容为：过去一年发展成就：经济总体回升向好，现代化产业体系建设取得重要进展，科技创新实现新的突破，改革开放向纵深推进，安全发展基础巩固夯实，生态环境质量稳中改善，民生保障有力有效。过去一年的困难挑战：从国际看，世界经济复苏乏力，地缘政治冲突加剧，保护主义、单边主义上升，外部环境对我国发展的不利影响持续加大。从国内看，经历三年新冠疫情冲击，经济恢复发展本身有不少难题，长期积累的深层次矛盾加速显现，很多新情况新问题又接踵而至。外需下滑和内需不足碰头，周期性和结构性问题并存，一些地方的房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等风险隐患凸显，部分地区遭受洪涝、台风、地震等严重自然灾害。过去一年主要工作：一是加大宏观调控力度，推动经济运行持续好转。二是依靠创新引领产业升级，增强城乡区域发展新动能。三是深化改革扩大开放，持续改善营商环境。四是强化生态环境保护治理，加快发展方式绿色转型。五是着力抓好民生保障，推进社会事业发展。六是全面加强政府建设，大力提升治理效能。2024年发展的主要预期目标：国内生产总值增长5%左右；城镇新增就业1200万人以上，城镇调查失业率5.5%左右；居民消费价格涨幅3%左右；居民收入增长和经济增长同步；国际收支保持基本平衡；粮食产量1.3万亿斤以上；单位国内生产总值能耗降低2.5%左右，生态环境质量持续改善。2024年经济工作总体要求：我们要坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破。稳是大局和基础，各地区各部门要多出有利于稳预期、稳增长、稳就业的政策，谨慎出台收缩性抑制性举措，清理和废止有悖于高质量发展的政策规定。进是方向和动力，该立的要积极主动立起来，该破的要在立的基础上坚决破，特别是要在转方式、调结构、提质量、增效益上积极进取。强化宏观政策逆周期和跨周期调节，继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，加强政策工具创新和协调配合。2024年政府工作主要任务：1.大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力。推动产业链供应链优化升级，积极培育新兴产业和未来产业，深入推进数字经济创新发展。2.深入实施科教兴国战略，强化高质量发展的基础支撑。加强高质量教育体系建设，加快推动高水平科技自立自强，全方位培养用好人才。3.着力扩大国内需求，推动经济实现良性循环。促进消费稳定增长，积极扩大有效投资。4.坚定不移深化改革，增强发展内生动力。激发各类经营主体活力，加快全国统一大市场建设，推进财税金融等领域改革。5.扩大高水平对外开放，促进互利共赢。推动外贸质升量稳，加大吸引外资力度，推动高质量共建“一带一路”走深走实，深化多双边和区域经济合作。6.更好统筹发展和安全，有效防范化解重点领域风险。稳妥有序处置风险隐患，健全风险防控长效机制，加强重点领域安全能力建设。7.坚持不懈抓好“三农”工作，扎实推进乡村全面振兴。加强粮食和重要农产品稳产保供，毫不放松巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，稳步推进农村改革发展。8.推动城乡融合和区域协调发展，大力优化经济布局。积极推进新型城镇化，提高区域协调发展水平。9.加强生态文明建设，推进绿色低碳发展。推动生态环境综合治理，大力发展绿色低碳经济，积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和。10.切实保障和改善民生，加强和创新社会治理。多措并举稳就业促增收，提高医疗卫生服务能力，加强社会保障和服务，丰富人民群众精神文化生活，维护国家安全和社会稳定。解读：结论：全国两会政府工作报告明确2024年GDP��长5%等主要发展目标，明确了2024年经济社会发展的总体要求和重点任务，为2024年发展指明了方向。可以重点关注：一是财政空间将进一步优化，赤字规模扩大，一般公共预算支出规模增加1.1万亿元，从2024年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债；二是货币政策将与价格水平预期目标相匹配，将畅通传导货币政策机制，避免资金沉淀空转，增强资本市场内在稳定性；三是现代化产业体系建设关注现代生产性服务业，生物制造、商业航天、低空经济等新增长引擎，全国一体化算力体系等；四是科教兴国战略关注数字教育、支持全面创新的基础制度，以及以创新价值、能力、贡献为导向的人才评价体系等；五是内需领域关注大规模设备更新及消费品以旧换新，养老、育幼、家政服务等；六是改革领域关注国有经济布局优化和结构调整指引制度，以及提高民营企业贷款占比、扩大发债融资规模等；七是开放领域关注全面实施跨境服务贸易负面清单，加快内外贸一体化发展，赋予自贸试验区、海南自由贸易港等更多自主权，中国—东盟自贸区3.0版谈判等；八是风险防控领域关注压实企业主体责任、部门监管责任、地方属地责任，建立同高质量发展相适应的政府债务管理机制等风险防控长效机制；九是绿色低碳领域重点关注落实全面节约战略，提升碳排放统计核算核查能力，加快建设新型能源体系，加强大型风电光伏基地和外送通道建设等。', 'content': '会议内容：2024年3月5日上午，十四届全国人大二次会议开幕，李强总理作政府工作报告，主要内容为：过去一年发展成就：经济总体回升向好，现代化产业体系建设取得重要进展，科技创新实现新的突破，改革开放向纵深推进，安全发展基础巩固夯实，生态环境质量稳中改善，民生保障有力有效。过去一年的困难挑战：从国际看，世界经济复苏乏力，地缘政治冲突加剧，保护主义、单边主义上升，外部环境对我国发展的不利影响持续加大。从国内看，经历三年新冠疫情冲击，经济恢复发展本身有不少难题，长期积累的深层次矛盾加速显现，很多新情况新问题又接踵而至。外需下滑和内需不足碰头，周期性和结构性问题并存，一些地方的房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等风险隐患凸显，部分地区遭受洪涝、台风、地震等严重自然灾害。过去一年主要工作：一是加大宏观调控力度，推动经济运行持续好转。二是依靠创新引领产业升级，增强城乡区域发展新动能。三是深化改革扩大开放，持续改善营商环境。四是强化生态环境保护治理，加快发展方式绿色转型。五是着力抓好民生保障，推进社会事业发展。六是全面加强政府建设，大力提升治理效能。2024年发展的主要预期目标：国内生产总值增长5%左右；城镇新增就业1200万人以上，城镇调查失业率5.5%左右；居民消费价格涨幅3%左右；居民收入增长和经济增长同步；国际收支保持基本平衡；粮食产量1.3万亿斤以上；单位国内生产总值能耗降低2.5%左右，生态环境质量持续改善。2024年经济工作总体要求：我们要坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破。稳是大局和基础，各地区各部门要多出有利于稳预期、稳增长、稳就业的政策，谨慎出台收缩性抑制性举措，清理和废止有悖于高质量发展的政策规定。进是方向和动力，该立的要积极主动立起来，该破的要在立的基础上坚决破，特别是要在转方式、调结构、提质量、增效益上积极进取。强化宏观政策逆周期和跨周期调节，继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，加强政策工具创新和协调配合。2024年政府工作主要任务：1.大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力。推动产业链供应链优化升级，积极培育新兴产业和未来产业，深入推进数字经济创新发展。2.深入实施科教兴国战略，强化高质量发展的基础支撑。加强高质量教育体系建设，加快推动高水平科技自立自强，全方位培养用好人才。3.着力扩大国内需求，推动经济实现良性循环。促进消费稳定增长，积极扩大有效投资。4.坚定不移深化改革，增强发展内生动力。激发各类经营主体活力，加快全国统一大市场建设，推进财税金融等领域改革。5.扩大高水平对外开放，促进互利共赢。推动外贸质升量稳，加大吸引外资力度，推动高质量共建“一带一路”走深走实，深化多双边和区域经济合作。6.更好统筹发展和安全，有效防范化解重点领域风险。稳妥有序处置风险隐患，健全风险防控长效机制，加强重点领域安全能力建���。7.坚持不懈抓好“三农”工作，扎实推进乡村全面振兴。加强粮食和重要农产品稳产保供，毫不放松巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，稳步推进农村改革发展。8.推动城乡融合和区域协调发展，大力优化经济布局。积极推进新型城镇化，提高区域协调发展水平。9.加强生态文明建设，推进绿色低碳发展。推动生态环境综合治理，大力发展绿色低碳经济，积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和。10.切实保障和改善民生，加强和创新社会治理。多措并举稳就业促增收，提高医疗卫生服务能力，加强社会保障和服务，丰富人民群众精神文化生活，维护国家安全和社会稳定。解读：结论：全国两会政府工作报告明确2024年GDP增长5%等主要发展目标，明确了2024年经济社会发展的总体要求和重点任务，为2024年发展指明了方向。可以重点关注：一是财政空间将进一步优化，赤字规模扩大，一般公共预算支出规模增加1.1万亿元，从2024年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债；二是货币政策将与价格水平预期目标相匹配，将畅通传导货币政策机制，避免资金沉淀空转，增强资本市场内在稳定性；三是现代化产业体系建设关注现代生产性服务业，生物制造、商业航天、低空经济等新增长引擎，全国一体化算力体系等；四是科教兴国战略关注数字教育、支持全面创新的基础制度，以及以创新价值、能力、贡献为导向的人才评价体系等；五是内需领域关注大规模设备更新及消费品以旧换新，养老、育幼、家政服务等；六是改革领域关注国有经济布局优化和结构调整指引制度，以及提高民营企业贷款占比、扩大发债融资规模等；七是开放领域关注全面实施跨境服务贸易负面清单，加快内外贸一体化发展，赋予自贸试验区、海南自由贸易港等更多自主权，中国—东盟自贸区3.0版谈判等；八是风险防控领域关注压实企业主体责任、部门监管责任、地方属地责任，建立同高质量发展相适应的政府债务管理机制等风险防控长效机制；九是绿色低碳领域重点关注落实全面节约战略，提升碳排放统计核算核查能力，加快建设新型能源体系，加强大型风电光伏基地和外送通道建设等。', 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['11000179017'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYLKqKhhM1GDZZwBAIqIl1Pw=', 'site': 'Shanxi Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '山西证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625533364_1.pdf?1709673306000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625533364_1.pdf?1709673306000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the 2024 Government Work Report: High-quality development and stable growth are more integrated', 'originalAuthor': '郭瑞', 'originalContent': '投资要点：2024年政府工作报告提出的经济社会发展总体要求延续了中央经济工作会议的表述。一是，继续突出“三个统筹”，即统筹扩大内需和深化供给侧结构性改革，统筹新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴，统筹高质量发展和高水平安全。二是，高质量发展亦需短期经济保持稳定增速。2024年经济目标是“切实增强经济活力、防范化解风险、改善社会预期，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，持续推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长”。“三个统筹”和科技发展要求或是短期经济和中长期经济发展相结合的“重点”和“关键”。5%的GDP增速目标稳妥中偏积极，主要出于四个方面的考虑。第一，考虑了促进就业增收、防范化解风险等需要。第二，2024年5%的增速目标可以实现的近五年复合增速为4.76%，能够与“十四五”规划和基本实现现代化的目标相衔接。第三，综合考虑了国内外形势和各��面因素，增速目标体现了积极进取、奋发有为的要求。第四，2023年，我国经济增速为5.2%，节奏上呈现前低中高后稳态势。去年四季度以来，经济量价指标呈现出筑底态势，未来辅以适度的政策措施，经济动能有望进一步恢复，促进经济增长保持稳定。高质量发展目标下传统产业和政策将面临底线的约束，如政府工作报告中提出“清理和废止有悖于高质量发展的政策规定”“该破的要在立的基础上坚决破”。因此，5%的目标并不意味着经济增长诉求的降低。政策布局总体稳中求进，强化宏观政策逆周期和跨周期调节，强调协同性和一致性。报告指出“强化宏观政策逆周期和跨周期调节”，整体政策基调仍偏积极，但站在高质量发展的要求下，政策并非“大进”。今年的政策基调还呈现以下特点：一是政策协调配合进入新阶段。二是研究储备政策要增强前瞻性、丰富工具箱，并留出冗余度。三是加强对政策执行情况的跟踪评估。四是精准做好政策宣传解读。财政政策方面，积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效，具体安排是“3%赤字率+地方政府专项债3.9万亿元+超长期特别国债1万亿元”。货币政策方面，稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效，加强总量和结构双重调节。推进现代化产业体系建设放在了主要任务的首位。主要涉及到三个方面：第一，推动产业链供应链优化升级。提到了“实施制造业重点产业链高质量发展行动”“实施制造业技术改造升级工程”“创建国家新型工业化示范区”“加快发展现代生产性服务业”“促进中小企业专精特新发展”等。第二，积极培育新兴产业和未来产业。其中新兴产业提到了“巩固扩大智能网联新能源汽车等产业领先优势”“加快前沿新兴氢能、新材料、创新药等产业发展”“积极打造生物制造、商业航天、低空经济等新增长引擎”。未来产业提到“开辟量子技术、生命科学等新赛道”。数字经济方面提到了“深化大数据、人工智能等研发应用”“加快工业互联网规模化应用，推进服务业数字化，建设智慧城市、数字乡村”“适度超前建设数字基础设施”等。扩大内需，统筹消费和投资。消费方面，从增加收入、优化供给、减少限制性措施等方面综合施策，促进消费稳定增长。培育壮大新型消费，稳定和扩大传统消费，推动养老、育幼、家政等服务扩容提质。投资方面，发挥好政府投资的带动放大效应，积极扩大有效投资。重点支持科技创新、新型基础设施、节能减排降碳，加强民生等经济社会薄弱领域补短板，推进防洪排涝抗灾基础设施建设，推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造，加快实施“十四五”规划重大工程项目。标本兼治化解“三大领域”风险。政府工作报告提出，更好统筹发展和安全，有效防范化解重点领域风险。标本兼治化解房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等风险，维护经济金融大局稳定。房地产方面，提出优化房地产政策，对不同所有制房地产企业合理融资需求要一视同仁给予支持，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。适应新型城镇化发展趋势和房地产市场供求关系变化，加快构建房地产发展新模式。加大保障性住房建设和供给，完善商品房相关基础性制度，满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求。地方债务方面，统筹好地方债务风险化解和稳定发展，进一步落实一揽子化债方案，妥善化解存量债务风险、严防新增债务风险。建立同高质量发展相适应的政府债务管理机制，完善全口径地方债务监测监管体系，分类推进地方融资平台转型。中小金融机构方面，稳妥推进一些地方的中小金融机构风险处置。严厉打击非法金融活动。健全金融监管体制，提高金融风险防控能力。风险提示：经济内生动力恢复较慢；宏观政策工具和力度不及预期。', 'content': 'Investment points: The overall requirements for economic and social development proposed in the 2024 Government Work Report continue the statements of the Central Economic Work Conference. First, continue to highlight the \"three coordinations\", that is, coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and deepen supply-side structural reform, coordinate new urbanization and comprehensive rural revitalization, and coordinate high-quality development and high-level security. Second, high-quality development also requires the economy to maintain stable growth in the short term. The economic goal for 2024 is to \"effectively enhance economic vitality, prevent and resolve risks, improve social expectations, consolidate and enhance the positive economic recovery, and continue to promote the economy to achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth.\" The \"three coordinations\" and the requirements of scientific and technological development may be the \"key points\" and \"keys\" in combining short-term economic and medium- and long-term economic development. The 5% GDP growth target is stable and moderately positive, mainly due to four considerations. First, the needs of promoting employment and income, preventing and defusing risks were considered. Second, the compound growth rate in the past five years that can be achieved by the 5% growth target in 2024 is 4.76%, which can be connected with the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" and the goal of basically realizing modernization. Third, taking into account the domestic and international situation and various factors, the growth target reflects the requirements of being proactive and enterprising. Fourth, in 2023, my country\\'s economic growth rate will be 5.2%, showing a trend of low at first, high at middle and then stable. Since the fourth quarter of last year, economic volume and price indicators have shown a bottoming trend. In the future, supplemented by appropriate policy measures, economic momentum is expected to further recover and promote stable economic growth. Under the goal of high-quality development, traditional industries and policies will face bottom-line constraints. For example, the government work report proposed to \"clean up and abolish policies and regulations that are contrary to high-quality development\" and \"what should be broken must be resolutely broken on the basis of establishment.\" Therefore, the 5% target does not mean a reduction in economic growth demands. The overall policy layout seeks progress while maintaining stability, strengthens counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, and emphasizes synergy and consistency. The report pointed out that \"strengthening counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies\", the overall policy tone is still positive, but under the requirements of high-quality development, the policy is not a \"big progress\". This year’s policy tone also presents the following characteristics: First, policy coordination has entered a new stage. Second, the research reserve policy should be more forward-looking, enrich the toolbox, and leave redundancy. The third is to strengthen the tracking and evaluation of policy implementation. The fourth is to accurately carry out policy publicity and interpretation. In terms of fiscal policy, the proactive fiscal policy must be moderately strengthened to improve quality and efficiency. The specific arrangement is \"3% deficit rate + 3.9 trillion yuan of local government special bonds + 1 trillion yuan of super-long-term special government bonds.\" In terms of monetary policy, prudent monetary policy must be flexible, moderate, precise and effective, and strengthen dual adjustment of aggregate volume and structure. Promoting the construction of a modern industrial system has been placed at the top of the list of major tasks. It mainly involves three aspects: First, promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial chain and supply chain. Mentioned are \"implementing high-quality development actions for key manufacturing industry chains\", \"implementing manufacturing technology transformation and upgrading projects\", \"creating national new industrialization demonstration zones\", \"accelerating the development of modern producer services\" and \"promoting the specialized and innovative development of small and medium-sized enterprises\". wait. Second, actively cultivate emerging industries and future industries. Among them, the emerging industries mentioned \"consolidating and expanding the leading advantages of intelligent network-connected new energy vehicles and other industries\", \"accelerating the development of cutting-edge emerging hydrogen energy, new materials, innovative drugs and other industries\" and \"actively creating new growth engines such as biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy.\" \". Future Industries mentioned “opening up new tracks such as quantum technology and life sciences”. In terms of the digital economy, it was mentioned \"deepening the research and development applications of big data, artificial intelligence, etc.\", \"accelerating the large-scale application of the industrial Internet, promoting the digitization of the service industry, building smart cities and digital villages\", \"building digital infrastructure appropriately ahead of schedule\", etc. Expand domestic demand and coordinate consumption and investment. In terms of consumption, comprehensive policies will be implemented to promote stable growth in consumption by increasing income, optimizing supply, and reducing restrictive measures. Cultivate and expand new consumption, stabilize and expand traditional consumption, and promote the expansion and quality improvement of services such as elderly care, child care, and housekeeping. In terms of investment, we should give full play to the amplification effect of government investment and actively expand effective investment. Focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation, new infrastructure, energy conservation and emission reduction, strengthening weak links in economic and social areas such as people\\'s livelihood, promoting the construction of flood control and drainage and disaster relief infrastructure, promoting the update and technological transformation of various production equipment and service equipment, and accelerating the implementation of \" Major engineering projects are planned in the 14th Five-Year Plan. Treating both the symptoms and root causes to resolve risks in the “three major areas”. The government work report proposes to better coordinate development and security and effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas. Address both the symptoms and root causes to resolve risks such as real estate, local debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions, and maintain overall economic and financial stability. In terms of real estate, it is proposed to optimize real estate policies, provide equal support to the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownerships, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Adapt to new urbanization development trends and changes in supply and demand in the real estate market, and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development. Increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, improve basic systems related to commercial housing, and meet residents\\' rigid housing needs and diversified improved housing needs. In terms of local debt, we will coordinate the resolution of local debt risks and stabilize development, further implement a package of debt reduction plans, properly resolve existing debt risks, and strictly prevent new debt risks. Establish a government debt management mechanism that is compatible with high-quality development, improve the full-scale local debt monitoring and supervision system, and promote the transformation of local financing platforms by category. As for small and medium-sized financial institutions, we will steadily advance the risk management of small and medium-sized financial institutions in some places. Strictly crack down on illegal financial activities. Improve the financial supervision system and improve financial risk prevention and control capabilities. Risk warning: The endogenous driving force of the economy is recovering slowly; macroeconomic policy tools and intensity are less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('e521f4b9-7006-505f-b080-07c6b67b7ccf'), 'sentimentScore': 0.11699060164391994, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'SHUVF6B766APNKA0P0OEKM8QD3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:00:09 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'SHUVF6B766APNKA0P0OEKM8QD3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('fd3e1b46-bd32-5982-b8b0-0cc9bd88135a'), 'title': 'Comments on macro events: incremental information in the government work report', 'author': 'Zhao Honghe', 'orgName': '民生证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000038', 'orgSName': '民生证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYCe4cF4WSsbEvh0S/PjCB2Y=', 'researcher': '赵宏鹤', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000330356'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYCe4cF4WSsbEvh0S/PjCB2Y=', 'site': 'Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '民生证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625532268_1.pdf?1709671369000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625532268_1.pdf?1709671369000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on macro events: incremental information in the government work report', 'originalAuthor': '赵宏鹤', 'originalContent': '2024年3月5日，十四届全国人大二次会议开幕，国务院总理李强做政府工作报告。由于报告发布之前已经可以通过前序高级别会议和地方两会前瞻部分信息，我们重点寻找报告中的增量信息。主要量化目标：经济目标有挑战，政策目标有定力经济增长目标5.0%左右，CPI目标3%左右，与去年相同。2023年实际GDP两年同比增速是4.1%，其中23Q4是4.0%，以此对标，今年要实现5%左右的经济增速并不容易，报告也提到“实现今年预期目标并非易事”。另外，经济和CPI的目标组合对应8%左右的“目标名义GDP增速”，结合宏观政策逆周期和跨周期调节的导向，今年M2和社融的合意增速或在8-9%之间，预计低于去年的9.7%和9.5%。赤字率拟按3.0%安排，赤字规模4.06万亿，统筹财政收入和调入资金等，一般公共预算支出28.5万亿元。按照“赤字率=赤字规模/名义GDP”推算，赤字率2.98%-3.02%对应6.6%-8.1%的“隐含名义GDP增速”，对比2023年名义GDP增速4.6%。2023年一般公共预算支出27.46万亿元，按照“比上年增加1.1万亿”，同比增速是4%左右，对比2023年增速是5.4%，小幅下降。拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，今年发行１万亿元，新增专项债3.9万亿元。过往惯例是特别国债不纳入赤字率，同专项债纳入政府性基金预算管理，因此3%赤字率安排应不包括这部分。新增专项债比去年多1000亿，2021年之后专项债额度增长显著放缓，而去年增发国债+今后几年发行特别国债，符合中央金融工作会议部署的“优化央地债务结构”。财政节奏是今年重要的国内宏观变量。如果一般公共预算支出和M2增速下降，如何推动年内经济增速提升？我们认为大致有三种途径：一是加大广义财政如PSL等的投放力度，二是控制好地方隐性债务的压降力度，三是加快去年底增发国债和今年特别国债的支出进度。以上三点均存在调整节奏的空间，年初以来释放速度总体不快，后续应重点给予跟踪。单位GDP能耗降低2.5%左右。经历2021年的波折后，2022-23年连续两年的政府工作报告没有明确降能耗的量化目标，2023年国家能源局提出“降低2%左右”，今年政府工作报告重提该目标，并稍作上调。作为对比，2021-23年实际的单位GDP能耗同比分别是-2.7%、-0.1%、+0.5%，可见今年要实现-2.5%的目标还需要更多措施和努力。宏观政策取向：关注货币新表述和三点新要求“积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效”和“稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效”的表述与近期高级别会议没有变化，量化目标所映射的财政支出和货币融资增长空间也契合“适度”的要求。值得关注的是货币政策的一段新表述：“畅通货币政策传导机制，避免资金沉淀空转”。如何理解？去年11月全国人大网发布了《对金融工作情况报告的意见和建议》，提到“近期，我国M2增幅高，M1增幅低，两者不相匹配，原因之一在于货币资金在银行间空转，或在银行与大企业之间轮流转，面向中小企业的信贷资金渠道不畅。”由此推测，沉淀与M2偏高有关，空转与M1偏低和银行间流动性有关，避免资金沉淀空转指向M2-M1剪刀差收敛和流动性保持合理充裕。前者着力于控M2、提M1，后者指向DR007继续围绕政策利率中枢甚至略高运行。另外，报告中再次强调“增强宏观政策取向一致性”，而且提出三点具体要求：1）制定政策要认真听取和吸纳各方面意见，涉企政策要注重与市场沟通、回应企业关切；2）实施政策要强化协同联动、放大组合效应，防止顾此失彼、相互掣肘；3）研究储备政策要增强前瞻性、丰富工具箱，并留出冗余度，确保一旦需要就能及时推出、有效发挥作用。以上三点均切中要害，有利于稳定企业预期、发挥政策效用、提高政策时效，最终有利于“营造稳定透明可预期的政策环境”，对于资本市场来说也是一件好事。政府工作任务：新质生产力、科教兴国位居前两顺位今年政府工作任务的次序比去年有所调整。去年扩大内需处于第一顺位、建设现代化产业体系处于第二顺位、“两个毫不动摇”处于第三顺位。今年的情况是，现代化产业体系建设来到第一顺位、并提出“加快发展新质生产力”，新增“科教兴国战略”至第二顺位，扩大内需处于第三顺位。新质生产力是连接经济目标和传统政策缺口的桥梁。在当前人口和资本存量格局下，“提高全要素生产率”是稳定中长期经济潜在增速的根本途径。具体部署包括：人工智能+、制造业技术改造升级、中小企业专精特新、智能网联新能源汽车、氢能、新材料、创新药、生物制造、商业航天、低空经济、量子技术、生命科学等。关于扩大内需的增量信息不多。投资方面明确了今年中央预算内投资拟安排7000亿元，去年是6800亿元，增长2.9%。对于专项债的安排是“合理扩大投向领域和用作资本金范围，额度分配向项目准备充分、投资效率较高的地区倾斜”，从年初的专项债发行情况来看，经济大省贡献了大部分额度，而“重债省”的发行规模明显偏低。风险提示：地缘政治形势超预期变化，房地产和地方债务风险超预期暴露。', 'content': '2024年3月5日，十四届全国人大二次会议开幕，国务院总理李强做政府工作报告。由于报告发布之前已经可以通过前序高级别会议和地方两会前瞻部分信息，我们重点寻找报告中的增量信息。主要量化目标：经济目标有挑战，政策目标有定力经济增��目标5.0%左右，CPI目标3%左右，与去年相同。2023年实际GDP两年同比增速是4.1%，其中23Q4是4.0%，以此对标，今年要实现5%左右的经济增速并不容易，报告也提到“实现今年预期目标并非易事”。另外，经济和CPI的目标组合对应8%左右的“目标名义GDP增速”，结合宏观政策逆周期和跨周期调节的导向，今年M2和社融的合意增速或在8-9%之间，预计低于去年的9.7%和9.5%。赤字率拟按3.0%安排，赤字规模4.06万亿，统筹财政收入和调入资金等，一般公共预算支出28.5万亿元。按照“赤字率=赤字规模/名义GDP”推算，赤字率2.98%-3.02%对应6.6%-8.1%的“隐含名义GDP增速”，对比2023年名义GDP增速4.6%。2023年一般公共预算支出27.46万亿元，按照“比上年增加1.1万亿”，同比增速是4%左右，对比2023年增速是5.4%，小幅下降。拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，今年发行１万亿元，新增专项债3.9万亿元。过往惯例是特别国债不纳入赤字率，同专项债纳入政府性基金预算管理，因此3%赤字率安排应不包括这部分。新增专项债比去年多1000亿，2021年之后专项债额度增长显著放缓，而去年增发国债+今后几年发行特别国债，符合中央金融工作会议部署的“优化央地债务结构”。财政节奏是今年重要的国内宏观变量。如果一般公共预算支出和M2增速下降，如何推动年内经济增速提升？我们认为大致有三种途径：一是加大广义财政如PSL等的投放力度，二是控制好地方隐性债务的压降力度，三是加快去年底增发国债和今年特别国债的支出进度。以上三点均存在调整节奏的空间，年初以来释放速度总体不快，后续应重点给予跟踪。单位GDP能耗降低2.5%左右。经历2021年的波折后，2022-23年连续两年的政府工作报告没有明确降能耗的量化目标，2023年国家能源局提出“降低2%左右”，今年政府工作报告重提该目标，并稍作上调。作为对比，2021-23年实际的单位GDP能耗同比分别是-2.7%、-0.1%、+0.5%，可见今年要实现-2.5%的目标还需要更多措施和努力。宏观政策取向：关注货币新表述和三点新要求“积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效”和“稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效”的表述与近期高级别会议没有变化，量化目标所映射的财政支出和货币融资增长空间也契合“适度”的要求。值得关注的是货币政策的一段新表述：“畅通货币政策传导机制，避免资金沉淀空转”。如何理解？去年11月全国人大网发布了《对金融工作情况报告的意见和建议》，提到“近期，我国M2增幅高，M1增幅低，两者不相匹配，原因之一在于货币资金在银行间空转，或在银行与大企业之间轮流转，面向中小企业的信贷资金渠道不畅。”由此推测，沉淀与M2偏高有关，空转与M1偏低和银行间流动性有关，避免资金沉淀空转指向M2-M1剪刀差收敛和流动性保持合理充裕。前者着力于控M2、提M1，后者指向DR007继续围绕政策利率中枢甚至略高运行。另外，报告中再次强调“增强宏观政策取向一致性”，而且提出三点具体要求：1）制定政策要认真听取和吸纳各方面意见，涉企政策要注重与市场沟通、回应企业关切；2）实施政策要强化协同联动、放大组合效应，防止顾此失彼、相互掣肘；3）研究储备政策要增强前瞻性、丰富工具箱，并留出冗余度，确保一旦需要就能及时推出、有效发挥作用。以上三点均切中要害，有利于稳定企业预期、发挥政策效用、提高政策时效，最终有利于“营造稳定透明可预期的政策环境”，对于资本市场来说也是一件好事。政府工作任务：新质生产力、科教兴国位居前两顺位今年政府工作任务的次序比去年有所调整。去年扩大内需处于第一顺位、建设现代化产业体系处于第二顺位、“两个毫不动摇”处于第三顺位。今年的情况是，现代化产业体系建设来到第一顺位、并提出“加快发展新质生产力”，新增“科教兴国战略”至第二顺位，扩大内需处于第三顺位。新质生产力是连接经济目标和传统政策缺口的桥梁。在当前人口和资本存量格局下，“提高全要素生产率”是稳定中长期经济潜在增速的根本途径。具体部署包括：人工智能+、制造业技术改造升级、中小企业专精特新、智能网联新能源汽车、氢能、新材料、创新药、生物制造、商业航天、低空经济、量子技术、生命科学等。关于扩大内需的增量信息不多。投资方面明确了今年中央预算内投资拟安排7000亿元，去年是6800亿元，增长2.9%。对于专项债的安排是“合理扩大投向领域和用作资本金范围，额度分配向项目准备充分、投资效率较高的地区倾斜”，从年初的专项债发行情况来看，经济大省贡献了大部分额度，而“重债省”的发行规模明显偏低。风险提示：地缘政治形势超预期变化，房地产和地方债务风险超预期暴露。', 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'目标设定稳中有进。中央财政加力提质增效。促消费、扩投资并举。2024年3月5日，十四届全国人大二次会议在人民大会堂开幕，国务院总理李强向大会作政府工作报告（下文简称“报告”）。目标设定稳中有进。报告提出，今年发展主要预期目标是：国内生产总值增长5%左右，与2023年目标持平。居民消费价格涨幅3%左右，粮食产量1.3万亿斤以上，通胀、粮食安全目标与2023年持平。值得关注的是，2024年城镇新增就业目标由2023年的“1200万人左右”，调整为“1200万人以上”，反映出当前政策端对“稳就业”、“稳收入”的重视度提升。此外，在生态环境质量方面，报告提出2024年单位国内生产总值能耗降低2.5%左右。整体来看，报告此次目标设定坚持“稳中求进，以进促稳”的工作基调；在2023年几项关键目标超额完成的基础上（2023年GDP实际增长5.2%，粮食产量1.39万亿斤，城镇新增就业1244万人），2024年各项指标目标设定稳中有进。中央财政加力提质增效。报告提出，“积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效。2024年赤字率拟按3%安排，赤字规模4.06万亿元”；其中，赤字率安排与2023年持平。此外，报告提出“拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债”，“今年先发行1万亿元”，“专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设”；据我们测算，叠加年内万亿超长期特别国债，2024年实际赤字率有望达到3.7%以上。在资金用途方面，超长期特别国债旨在“系统解决强国建设民族复兴进程中一些重大项目建设的资金问题”，而报告前文明确指出，要“以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业”，“中国式现代化”将是年内中央财政加力支持的重要领域之一。报告对货币政策调控提出了更高要求。报告提出，社会融资规模、货币供应量要与经济增长、价格水平预期目标相匹配，将往年“名义经济增速”指标拆分为经济增速和价格水平两项指标；这要求货币政策关注经济增长与物价稳定之间的均衡关系。此外，报告在货币政策部分提出“增强资本市场内在稳定性”，同样是对货币政策提出的更高要求。促消费、扩投资并举。在扩大内需方面，报告提出“促进消费稳定增长”，“积极扩大有效投资”。在消费方面，报告指出“鼓励和推动消费品以旧换新”，并明确提及智能网联新能源汽车、电子产品等大宗消费及养老、家政等服务消费。在扩大投资方面，报告要求“发挥好政府投资的带动放大效应”；年内地方政府专项债券限额安排3.9万亿元，中央预算内投资安排7000亿元，均较往年规模有所上升，政府投资安排相对充裕。在投资方向上，年内有效投资向“新质生产力”倾斜。在“加快实施‘十四五’规划重大工程项目”的基础上，报告特别强调科技创新、新型基础设施、节能减排降碳等重点领域；在政策��支持下，年内电气机械制造业等高技术产业投资增速有望维持高位。风险提示：海外通胀韧性超预期；地缘关系的不确定性。', 'content': 'Goal setting is steady and progressing. The central government has stepped up its efforts to improve quality and efficiency. Promote consumption and expand investment simultaneously. On March 5, 2024, the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress opened in the Great Hall of the People. Premier Li Qiang of the State Council delivered a government work report (hereinafter referred to as the \"report\") to the conference. Goal setting is steady and progressing. The report states that the main expected development target for this year is: GDP growth of about 5%, which is the same as the 2023 target. Consumer prices will increase by about 3%, grain output will exceed 1.3 trillion kilograms, and inflation and food security targets will remain the same as in 2023. It is worth noting that the target for new urban employment in 2024 has been adjusted from \"around 12 million people\" in 2023 to \"more than 12 million people\", reflecting the current policy emphasis on \"stabilizing employment\" and \"stabilizing income\" promote. In addition, in terms of ecological and environmental quality, the report proposes that energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by about 2.5% in 2024. Overall, the target setting of the report adheres to the working tone of \"seeking progress while maintaining stability to promote stability\"; on the basis of overfulfillment of several key targets in 2023 (the actual GDP growth in 2023 is 5.2%, and the grain output is 1.39%). trillion jin, 12.44 million new urban jobs), and the target settings for various indicators in 2024 are stable and making progress. The central government has stepped up its efforts to improve quality and efficiency. The report states that \"the proactive fiscal policy must be appropriately intensified and improve quality and efficiency. The deficit rate is planned to be arranged at 3% in 2024, with a deficit scale of 4.06 trillion yuan.\" Among them, the deficit rate arrangement is the same as in 2023. In addition, the report proposes that “it plans to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years” and “issue 1 trillion yuan first this year” to be “dedicated to the implementation of major national strategies and the construction of security capabilities in key areas”; according to our calculations, a total of 1 trillion yuan will be issued during the year. For ultra-long-term special government bonds, the actual deficit rate in 2024 is expected to reach more than 3.7%. In terms of the use of funds, the ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are intended to \"systematically solve the funding problems of some major project construction in the process of building a strong country and national rejuvenation.\" The report clearly states that it is necessary to \"comprehensively promote the construction of a strong country and the great cause of national rejuvenation with Chinese-style modernization.\" , \"Chinese-style modernization\" will be one of the important areas where the central government will increase its financial support during the year. The report puts forward higher requirements for monetary policy regulation. The report proposed that the scale of social financing and money supply should match the expected goals of economic growth and price levels, and the \"nominal economic growth\" indicator of previous years should be split into two indicators: economic growth speed and price level; this requires monetary policy to focus on the economy The equilibrium relationship between growth and price stability. In addition, the report proposes \"enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market\" in the monetary policy section, which is also a higher requirement for monetary policy. Promote consumption and expand investment simultaneously. In terms of expanding domestic demand, the report proposes \"promoting stable growth in consumption\" and \"actively expanding effective investment.\" In terms of consumption, the report points out that “encouraging and promoting the trade-in of old consumer goods for new ones” and clearly mentions bulk consumption such as intelligent connected new energy vehicles and electronic products, as well as consumption of services such as elderly care and housekeeping. In terms of expanding investment, the report calls for \"giving full play to the amplification effect of government investment\"; the local government special bond limit is 3.9 trillion yuan during the year, and the central budget investment arrangement is 700 billion yuan, both of which have increased in scale compared with previous years. Government investment arrangements Relatively abundant. In terms of investment direction, effective investment during the year was tilted towards \"new quality productivity\". On the basis of \"accelerating the implementation of major engineering projects in the 14th Five-Year Plan\", the report particularly emphasizes key areas such as technological innovation, new infrastructure, energy conservation and emission reduction; with the support of policies, during the year, high-tech enterprises such as the electrical machinery manufacturing industry The growth rate of technology industry investment is expected to remain high. Risk warning: Overseas inflation resilience exceeds expectations; uncertainty in geopolitical relations.', 'authorid': UUID('64fe4936-93fb-5012-8030-63d18f4c6df2'), 'sentimentScore': 0.19560858514159918, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'AVVV2K8I1M1RCMSVUJ9SL52S13VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:00:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'AVVV2K8I1M1RCMSVUJ9SL52S13VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c933a9a9-2b12-53da-bbac-3920ea5c9514'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Weekly Report: Domestic interest rates and stock prices are still significantly low', 'author': 'Li Zhizhi, Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYIYkb2RktxB8VFUd0AzX28Q=', 'researcher': '李智能,董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245053', '11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYIYkb2RktxB8VFUd0AzX28Q=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625526965_1.pdf?1709666989000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625526965_1.pdf?1709666989000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Weekly Report: Domestic interest rates and stock prices are still significantly low', 'originalAuthor': '李智能,董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点国内利率和股票价格仍明显偏低。本周国信高频宏观扩散指数A转为正值，指数B小幅回升。从分项来看，本周消费、房地产领域景气变化不大，投资领域景气有所上升。从季节性比较来看，本周指数B标准化后有所回升，表现逊于历史平均水平，国内经济增长向上动力仍偏弱。基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率和股票价格仍明显偏低，预计下周（2024年3月8日所在周）十年期国债利率、上证综合指数将上行。周度价格高频跟踪方面：（1）本周食品价格下跌，非食品价格上涨。预计2024年2月CPI食品环比约为3.5%，非食品环比约为0.4%，CPI整体环比约为1.0%，2月CPI同比或明显回升至0.7%。（2）2月上旬国内流通领域生产资料价格小幅回落，中、下旬持续回升。预计2024年2月国内PPI环比在零附近，PPI同比或持平上月的-2.5%。风险提示：政策刺激力度减弱，经济增速下滑。', 'content': \"The core view is that domestic interest rates and stock prices are still significantly low. Guosen High Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, while Index B rebounded slightly. From a sub-item perspective, the prosperity of the consumption and real estate sectors has not changed much this week, while the prosperity of the investment sector has increased. From a seasonal comparison point of view, Index B has rebounded this week after normalization, and its performance is worse than the historical average. The upward momentum of domestic economic growth is still weak. The prediction of asset prices based on the Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index shows that the current domestic interest rates and stock prices are still significantly low. It is expected that the ten-year government bond interest rate and the Shanghai Composite Index will rise next week (the week of March 8, 2024). Weekly price high-frequency tracking: (1) Food prices fell this week, while non-food prices rose. It is expected that in February 2024, the food CPI will be approximately 3.5% month-on-month, the non-food month-on-month CPI will be approximately 0.4%, and the overall month-on-month CPI will be approximately 1.0%. The CPI in February may rebound significantly to 0.7% year-on-year. (2) Prices of means of production in the domestic circulation sector fell slightly in early February and continued to rise in the middle and late February. It is expected that the domestic PPI in February 2024 will be near zero month-on-month, and the PPI may be the same as last month's -2.5% year-on-year. Risk warning: Policy stimulus will weaken and economic growth will decline.\", 'authorid': UUID('92623406-8214-5e94-84f7-458373c02882'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8918078951537609, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'CGFO1D4LJCU8F53B4OC1AN4F8FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:00:18 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'CGFO1D4LJCU8F53B4OC1AN4F8FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('df1466a5-a3a9-5cef-b091-b93dfd0d5d05'), 'title': 'Macro report: Ten key points of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\"', 'author': 'Song Xuetao, Zhang Wei', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYEDQiYErwJGjif/tbPPSTkY=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛,张伟', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658', '11000305734'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYEDQiYErwJGjif/tbPPSTkY=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625526966_1.pdf?1709667691000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625526966_1.pdf?1709667691000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro report: Ten key points of the 2024 \"Government Work Report\"', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛,张伟', 'originalContent': '重点1：GDP增长目标为何确定为5%左右？重点2：发行超长期特别国债对冲一般预算支出增速的放缓。重点3：货币政策延续货政报告基调，重结构和存量。重点4：资本市场稳定性有待加强。重点5：以改革促发展的定力仍强。重点6：科教兴国的优先级有所提升。重点7：哪些产业将受到重点支持？重点8：提出“人工智能+”，重视AI的发展。重点9：对民间资本参与科技创新的激励或将加大。重点10：新型城镇化+土地改革可能是今年改革的重点内容。风险提示：政策节奏存在不确定性；海外政治、经济的波动可能会对政策的出台产生影响。', 'content': 'Key point 1: Why is the GDP growth target set at around 5%? Focus 2: Issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds to offset the slowdown in general budget expenditure growth. Key point 3: Monetary policy continues the tone of the monetary policy report, focusing on structure and stock. Key point 4: The stability of the capital market needs to be strengthened. Key Point 5: The determination to promote development through reform is still strong. Key point 6: The priority of rejuvenating the country through science and education has been raised. Focus 7: Which industries will receive key support? Key point 8: Propose \"artificial intelligence +\" and attach importance to the development of AI. Key point 9: Incentives for private capital to participate in scientific and technological innovation may be increased. Key point 10: New urbanization + land reform may be the focus of this year’s reform. Risk warning: There is uncertainty in the pace of policy; overseas political and economic fluctuations may have an impact on the introduction of policies.', 'authorid': UUID('5401fe2c-be87-59ac-9de2-31f3e8036e8b'), 'sentimentScore': 0.3641851404681802, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'T18NV42L627H2R4SRD22KUBPRBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:00:21 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'T18NV42L627H2R4SRD22KUBPRBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('49e58b13-3c8a-5afb-99b2-cc339d1efc8e'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the 2024 Government Work Report: Focus on New Productivity', 'author': 'Zhang Jun, Gao Ming, Xu Dongshi, Zhan Lu, Wu Jing, Nie Tianqi, Lu Lei', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYNIMXnOXvQMKk7grhhsPJfQ=', 'researcher': '章俊,高明,许冬石,詹璐,吴京,聂天奇,吕雷', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000262937', '11000185520', '11000208436', '11000450635', '11000450636', '11000443769'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYNIMXnOXvQMKk7grhhsPJfQ=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625523563_1.pdf?1709666067000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625523563_1.pdf?1709666067000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the 2024 Government Work Report: Focus on New Productivity', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,高明,许冬石,詹璐,吴京,聂天奇,吕雷', 'originalContent': '主要结论：2024年3月5日，第十四届全国人民代表大会第二次会议召开，国务院总理李强向大会报告政府工作（以下简称《报告》）。实际GDP增长维持5.0%左右��体现了“积极进取、奋发有为”。2023年是在2022年增长3.0%的基础上，从2022年的目标5.5%调降至5.0%的目标。而2024年是在2023年增长5.2%的基础上，维持5.0%左右不变。这实际上考虑了促进就业增收、防范化解风险、与‘十四五’规划和基本实现现代化的目标相衔接，以及经济增长潜力和支撑条件四个方面。居民收入增长和城镇新增就业目标提升。居民收入增长目标从2023年“与经济增长基本同步”提升为2024年“与经济增长同步”。城镇新增就业目标从2023年的“1200万人左右”提升至2024年的“1200万人以上”。CPI目标维持3.0%左右，维持货币政策规则和给货币政策新的标准：在通胀预期偏低的情况之下，将CPI增幅目标维持3.0%左右，一是防止货币因为目标被动收缩，二是给与货币政策新的标准，使得M2和社会融资的增长有所依据。单位GDP能耗降低2.5%左右。减少了供给侧煤炭、电力、钢铁等行业压力。增加宏观政策一致性预期低位。强调加强财政、货币、就业、产业、区域、科技、环保等政策的协调配合。财政政策仍适度扩张。一是3%的赤字更多是财政纪律的体现；二是广义赤字率上行；三是考虑价格因素今年实际赤字率或高于3%；四是超长期特别国债显著体现财政逆周期扩张的政策意图。货币政策变化不大。货币政策仍然是灵活适度、精准有效，货币政策将总量和结构工具双重发力，央行将继续实施降准、降息。2024年工作前三大目标：现代化体系和新质生产力、科教兴国、扩大内需。新质生产力是未来政策重点。2024年政府工作报告部署全年十大任务，将“大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力”放到首位。有三项重点布局：一是推动产业链供应链优化升级；二是积极培育新兴产业和未来产业；三是深入推进数字经济创新发展。扩大内需主要在供给侧。居民消费仍然重视供给侧，壮大新型消费、传统消费以旧换新、推动汽车电子大宗消费、推动养老、育幼、家政服务消费。投资主要集中在科技创新、新型基础设施、节能减排降碳、防洪排涝抗灾基础设施、生产设备更新、“十四五”重大工程项目。防范化解风险依然集中在房地产、地方政府债务、中小金融机构。在短期风险控制的基础上，要标本兼治建立化解风险的长效机制。风险提示：1.海外经济衰退的风险', 'content': 'Main conclusions: On March 5, 2024, the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress was held. Premier Li Qiang of the State Council reported the government work to the conference (hereinafter referred to as the \"Report\"). Real GDP growth remained at around 5.0%, reflecting \"proactive and enterprising spirit.\" In 2023, based on the 3.0% growth in 2022, the target was lowered from the 2022 target of 5.5% to 5.0%. In 2024, based on the 5.2% growth in 2023, it will remain unchanged at around 5.0%. This actually considers four aspects: promoting employment and income, preventing and defusing risks, connecting with the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" and the goal of basically realizing modernization, as well as economic growth potential and supporting conditions. The targets for resident income growth and new urban employment have been raised. The target for residents’ income growth has been raised from “basically in sync with economic growth” in 2023 to “in sync with economic growth” in 2024. The target for new urban employment has been raised from \"around 12 million people\" in 2023 to \"more than 12 million people\" in 2024. The CPI target is maintained at around 3.0%, maintaining monetary policy rules and setting new standards for monetary policy: Under the circumstances of low inflation expectations, the CPI growth target is maintained at around 3.0%. One is to prevent the currency from passive contraction due to the target, and the other is to provide With the new standards of monetary policy, the growth of M2 and social financing has a basis. Energy consumption per unit of GDP is reduced by about 2.5%. This has reduced the pressure on coal, electricity, steel and other industries on the supply side. Increased macro policy consistency is expected to be low. Emphasize strengthening the coordination and cooperation of fiscal, monetary, employment, industry, regional, science and technology, environmental protection and other policies. Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary. First, the 3% deficit is more of a reflection of fiscal discipline; second, the broad deficit rate is rising; third, considering price factors, the actual deficit rate this year may be higher than 3%; fourth, ultra-long-term special government bonds significantly reflect the policy of fiscal countercyclical expansion. intention. Monetary policy has changed little. Monetary policy remains flexible, appropriate, precise and effective. Monetary policy will use both aggregate and structural tools. The central bank will continue to implement reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The top three goals for 2024 are: modernizing the system and new productive forces, rejuvenating the country through science and education, and expanding domestic demand. New productivity is the focus of future policies. The 2024 government work report deploys the ten major tasks for the whole year, placing \"vigorously promoting the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerating the development of new productive forces\" at the top of the list. There are three key layouts: first, to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial and supply chains; second, to actively cultivate emerging industries and future industries; and third, to further promote the innovative development of the digital economy. Expanding domestic demand mainly lies on the supply side. Residential consumption still attaches great importance to the supply side, strengthening new consumption, replacing old consumption with new ones, promoting bulk consumption of automotive electronics, and promoting consumption of elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping services. Investments are mainly concentrated in technological innovation, new infrastructure, energy conservation and emission reduction, flood control and disaster relief infrastructure, production equipment updates, and major \"14th Five-Year Plan\" projects. Risk prevention and resolution are still concentrated on real estate, local government debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions. On the basis of short-term risk control, it is necessary to address both the symptoms and root causes and establish a long-term mechanism to resolve risks. Risk warning: 1. Risk of overseas economic recession', 'authorid': UUID('dce8b192-e78b-5cf1-aa94-40420f523269'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8326619602739811, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'VCF7U7V0H21OA6VTKBJ26QA88FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:00:24 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'VCF7U7V0H21OA6VTKBJ26QA88FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3b0c332e-5cb9-5c80-87e1-1ebb1399a34a'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Commentary: The key to “promoting stability through advancement” is to seek motivation from reform', 'author': 'He Ning', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYDgWba/Kk2bRsb4hYbG/qEs=', 'researcher': '何宁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYDgWba/Kk2bRsb4hYbG/qEs=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625523469_1.pdf?1709666164000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625523469_1.pdf?1709666164000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Commentary: The key to “promoting stability through advancement” is to seek motivation from reform', 'originalAuthor': '何宁', 'originalContent': '政策基调:2023年完成目标，2024年坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破1、回顾2023年，任务目标圆满完成，但也清醒看到困难挑战，如有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱、内循环存堵点、国际循环存干扰、中小企业经营困难、就业压力、基层财力紧张、科技能力不强、改革硬骨头等。2、2024年政策取向延续中央经济工作会议的“稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破”。“稳是大局和基础，进是方向和动力，该立的要积极主动立起来，该破的要在立的基础上坚决破”，我们理解这是对“进”和“立”的强调，旨在通过结构调整、改革开放、提升质量等方面来促进稳。主要目标：5%左右的经济目标或有四层含义，或需要更强的政策支持1、5%左右的经济目标或有四层含义。（1）短期看，有助于稳就业和防止风险“水落石出”；（2）长期看，我们测算实现2035远景目标，需在2023-2035年人均GNI增速超过6.7%，名义GDP6.2%，对应实际GDP增速可能4.1%-4.6%（误差在于平减指数的波动），当下需较高的经济增速；（3）潜在增速方面，学术研究表明十四五中国潜在经济增速在5%-5.5%之间，十五五回落至5%以下；（4）2023年中国GDP同比5.2%，增速居世界前列。但2023年中国名义GDP占美国比重下滑至65%，经济高增符合国际比较诉求。需要看到，当下经济存在两大不确定性：一是12省化债对基建的影响；二是地产需求改善仍存掣肘。要完成5%经济目标，或需比2023年更强的政策对冲。2、CPI目标为3%，我们测算2024年CPI可能在0%-1%之间，结合会议隐含的名义GDP增速为7.4%，可关注后续是否有价格改革、扩大需求等举措。宏观调控：我们测算广义赤字率6.6%，货币精准有效，关注信贷新特点1、总体看，会议要求“增强宏观政策取向一致性”；增强前瞻性；加强对政策执行的跟踪评估；营造稳定透明可预期的政策环境。2、财政政策“适度加力、提质增效”。会议拟安排赤字率3%，地方政府专项债券3.9万亿元，发行1万亿超长期特别国债。假设2024年名义GDP增速为7.4%，我们测算广义财政赤字共为9万亿元，广义财政赤字率可能为6.6%。此外，会议指出“拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，用于国家重大战略和重点领域安全建设”，预计将利好水利、交通等基建。我们判断若后续实际经济表现与目标有差距，财政也可能在年中继续加力，以稳增长。3、货币政策“灵活适度、精准有效”，预计继续降准降息，关注信贷新特点和稳定资本市场相关举措。“保持流动性合理充裕”指向央行或需加大力度呵护流动性，配合财政发债，但降息程度可能受防止资金空转和汇率稳定要求的限制。会议延续“社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配”，指向有望引导通胀适度上行。“盘活存量、提升效能”旨在调结构、盘存量。“促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降”指向继续降息。工作任务：重视发展新质生产力；关注三方面改革；防止系统性风险1、现代化产业体系与新质生产力。主要强调三个方面：产业链供应链优化升级（制造业技术改造升级、现代生产性服务业）；培育新兴产业和未来产业（智能网联新能源汽车，新兴氢能等）；推进数字经济发展（人工智能、平台企业）。2、实施科教兴国战略。科技自立自强，自主创新，颠覆性技术和前沿技术。3、着力扩大内需，关注制造业技改、县域经济、三大工程、消费品以旧换新等。消费端，关注消费品以旧换新，智能网联新能源汽车、电子产品；数字、绿色、健康等新型消费和服务消费。我们认为“消费新时代”的内生动能正在积聚。投资端，关注科技创新、新基建等领域补短板；抗灾基础设施；设备技改；保障房建设；“平急两用”基础设施和城中村改造，地下管网等。4、坚定不移深化改革，聚焦经营主体活力、统一大市场和财税金融改革，关注三中全会。一是深入实施国企改革深化提升行动，促进民营经济发展壮大；二是加快统一大市场建设，深化要素市场化改革，治理地方保护等；三是推进财税金融改革，深化电力、油气、铁路和综合运输体系等改革。5、统筹发展和安全，防止系统性风险。地产端，对房企合理融资一视同仁，构建房地产发展新模式，加大保障房建设，指向供给端政策加速推进；化债方面，进一步落实一揽子化债方案，分类推进地方融资平台转型；此外，加强粮食、水网、能源、数据等安全能力建设。6、其他：推动外贸质升量稳，加大吸引外资力度；大力发展绿色经济，加强大型风电光伏建设；稳就业促增收；发展银发经济等。风险提示：经济增长不及预期，政策执行力度不及预期。', 'content': 'Policy tone: Achieve the goals in 2023, insist on making progress while maintaining stability, promote stability through advancement, and establish first and then break 1. Looking back on 2023, the mission objectives have been successfully completed, but we are also clearly aware of the difficulties and challenges, such as insufficient effective demand, partial The industry has overcapacity, weak social expectations, internal circulation congestion, interference in the international circulation, operational difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises, employment pressure, financial constraints at the grassroots level, weak scientific and technological capabilities, and hard-core reforms. 2. The policy orientation in 2024 continues the Central Economic Work Conference’s “seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through advancement, and establishing before breaking.” \"Stability is the overall situation and foundation, progress is the direction and driving force, what should be established must be proactively established, and what should be broken must be resolutely broken on the basis of being established.\" We understand that this is an emphasis on \"advance\" and \"establishment\", It aims to promote stability through structural adjustment, reform and opening up, and quality improvement. Main goals: The economic target of around 5% may have four levels of meaning, or may require stronger policy support. 1. The economic target of around 5% may have four levels of meaning. (1) In the short term, it will help stabilize employment and prevent risks from coming to light; (2) In the long term, we estimate that to achieve the long-term goal of 2035, per capita GNI growth needs to exceed 6.7% and nominal GDP 6.2% from 2023 to 2035. , corresponding to the actual GDP growth rate may be 4.1%-4.6% (the error lies in the fluctuation of the deflator), and a higher economic growth rate is needed at the moment; (3) In terms of potential growth rate, academic research shows that China’s potential economic growth rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan Between 5% and 5.5%, it will fall below 5% during the 15th Five-Year Plan; (4) China\\'s GDP in 2023 will be 5.2% year-on-year, ranking among the top in the world. However, China\\'s nominal GDP will account for 65% of the United States\\' share in 2023, and high economic growth is in line with international comparison requirements. It needs to be noted that there are two major uncertainties in the current economy: first, the impact of the 12 provincial debts on infrastructure; second, there are still constraints on the improvement of real estate demand. To achieve the 5% economic target, stronger policy hedging than in 2023 may be needed. 2. The CPI target is 3%. We estimate that the CPI in 2024 may be between 0% and 1%. Combined with the nominal GDP growth rate implied by the meeting of 7.4%, we can pay attention to whether there will be subsequent price reforms, expansion of demand and other measures. Macroeconomic control: We estimate that the general deficit rate is 6.6%, the currency is accurate and effective, and we pay attention to the new characteristics of credit 1. Overall, the meeting called for \"enhancing the consistency of macro policy orientation\"; strengthening foresight; strengthening the tracking and evaluation of policy implementation; creating stability and transparency Predictable policy environment. 2. Fiscal policy should be “appropriately enhanced to improve quality and efficiency.” The meeting planned to arrange a deficit rate of 3%, local government special bonds of 3.9 trillion yuan, and the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds. Assuming that the nominal GDP growth rate is 7.4% in 2024, we estimate that the broad fiscal deficit will total 9 trillion yuan, and the broad fiscal deficit rate may be 6.6%. In addition, the meeting pointed out that \"it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years to be used for security construction in major national strategies and key areas,\" which is expected to benefit infrastructure such as water conservancy and transportation. We judge that if there is a gap between the subsequent actual economic performance and the target, fiscal policy may continue to increase in the middle of the year to stabilize growth. 3. Monetary policy is \"flexible, appropriate, precise and effective\". It is expected to continue to cut reserve requirements and interest rates, and pay attention to new features of credit and measures related to stabilizing the capital market. \"Maintaining reasonably sufficient liquidity\" means that the central bank may need to step up efforts to protect liquidity and cooperate with the fiscal bond issuance, but the extent of interest rate cuts may be limited by the requirements to prevent idling of funds and stabilize the exchange rate. The meeting continued that \"the scale of social financing and money supply are consistent with the expected goals of economic growth and price levels\", pointing to the possibility of guiding inflation to rise moderately. \"Revitalizing inventory and improving efficiency\" aims to adjust structure and inventory. \"Promoting social comprehensive financing costs to stabilize and decline\" points to continued interest rate cuts. Work tasks: Pay attention to the development of new productive forces; focus on reforms in three aspects; prevent systemic risks 1. Modern industrial system and new productive forces. It mainly emphasizes three aspects: optimization and upgrading of industrial chain and supply chain (technological transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, modern producer service industry); cultivating emerging industries and future industries (intelligent network-connected new energy vehicles, emerging hydrogen energy, etc.); promoting the development of digital economy (artificial intelligence, platform companies). 2. Implement the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education. Self-reliance in science and technology, independent innovation, disruptive technology and cutting-edge technology. 3. Focus on expanding domestic demand, focusing on technological transformation of the manufacturing industry, county economy, three major projects, and trade-in of consumer goods. On the consumer side, focus on the trade-in of consumer goods, smart connected new energy vehicles and electronic products; digital, green, health and other new consumption and service consumption. We believe that the endogenous kinetic energy of the “new era of consumption” is gathering momentum. On the investment side, we focus on making up for shortcomings in areas such as technological innovation and new infrastructure; disaster-resistant infrastructure; equipment technical transformation; construction of affordable housing; \"both emergency and leisure\" infrastructure and urban village renovation, underground pipe networks, etc. 4. Unswervingly deepen reforms, focus on the vitality of business entities, unified market and fiscal, taxation and financial reforms, and pay attention to the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. The first is to implement in-depth reforms and upgrades of state-owned enterprises to promote the development and growth of the private economy; the second is to accelerate the construction of a unified large market, deepen the market-oriented reform of factors, and manage local protection; the third is to promote fiscal, taxation and financial reforms and deepen the development of power, oil and gas, railways and comprehensive Transportation system and other reforms. 5. Coordinate development and security to prevent systemic risks. On the real estate side, we will treat reasonable financing of real estate companies equally, build a new model of real estate development, increase the construction of affordable housing, and accelerate supply-side policies; in terms of debt reduction, we will further implement a package of debt reduction plans and promote the transformation of local financing platforms in categories; in addition, strengthen Building security capabilities for food, water networks, energy, data, etc. 6. Others: Promote the quality and quantity of foreign trade and increase efforts to attract foreign investment; vigorously develop the green economy and strengthen the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaics; stabilize employment and increase income; develop the silver economy, etc. Risk warning: Economic growth is less than expected, and policy implementation is less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('52a5389c-6434-575d-ad8f-dccb9d09cd11'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6240059062838554, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '12QNENVIVGLGHPORF955KBLSF3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:00:27 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '12QNENVIVGLGHPORF955KBLSF3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('23e44d13-b98c-580a-a443-55d223d88d54'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the 2024 Government Work Report', 'author': 'Bao Chengchao, Deng Yulin', 'orgName': '国联证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000028', 'orgSName': '国联证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYPVf1sTHp4YbeQPa9dN1g+8=', 'researcher': '包承超,邓宇林', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000268933', '11000337556'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYPVf1sTHp4YbeQPa9dN1g+8=', 'site': 'Guolian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625523252_1.pdf?1709666332000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625523252_1.pdf?1709666332000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the 2024 Government Work Report', 'originalAuthor': '包承超,邓宇林', 'originalContent': '核心结论总体来说，增长目标符合市场预期，工作任务延续中央经济工作会议的内容，但有部分新增补充。2024年目标：主要经济增长目标GDP增速5%左右（持平去年）、赤字率3%（持平去年）、特别国债1万亿（强调会连续几年发行超长期特别国债）2024工作任务首位——科技创新落脚点在新质生产力——包括产业链升级、培育新产业、推进数字经济三方面：1）培育哪些新产业？“加快发展”新兴氢能、新材料、创新药产业，“积极打造”生物制造、商业航天、低空经济等新增长引擎，“开辟”量子技术、生命科学等新赛道。2)如何推进数字经济？两个要点。“深入开展中小企业数字化赋能专项行动”，“适度超前建设数字基础设施”。3、时隔11年再提“科教兴国”：高质量教育体系+科技自立自强+培养用好人才。4、扩内需聚焦消费。1）新消费：智能家居、文娱旅游、体育赛事、国货“潮品”。2）老消费：新能源车、电子产品。3）服务消费：养老、育幼、家政等服务扩容提质，支持社会力量提供社区服务。5、房地产方面：房地产放在“统筹发展与安全”主题下，强调供给端加大保障性住房建设和供给，满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求。6、对外方面：推进中国—东盟自贸区3.0版谈判。7、��本市场方面：重点在于增强资本市场内在稳定+鼓励新产业股权投资。8、城镇化中县域经济是重点培育发展县域经济，补齐基础设施和公共服务短板，使县城成为新型城镇化的重要载体。9、此外，我们注意到两个“品牌”建设：“投资中国”品牌（针对吸引外资）+“中国制造”品牌（针对推动产业链升级）', 'content': 'Core Conclusions Generally speaking, the growth target is in line with market expectations, and the work tasks continue the content of the Central Economic Work Conference, but with some new additions. Goals for 2024: The main economic growth targets are GDP growth of about 5% (the same as last year), a deficit rate of 3% (the same as last year), and special national debt of 1 trillion (emphasis on the issuance of ultra-long-term special national debt for several consecutive years). The first task in 2024 - —Technological innovation focuses on new productive forces—including three aspects: upgrading the industrial chain, cultivating new industries, and promoting the digital economy: 1) What new industries should be cultivated? \"Accelerate the development\" of emerging hydrogen energy, new materials, and innovative pharmaceutical industries, \"actively create\" new growth engines such as biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy, and \"open up\" new tracks such as quantum technology and life sciences. 2) How to promote the digital economy? Two important points. \"Carry out in-depth special actions to empower small and medium-sized enterprises in digitalization\" and \"build digital infrastructure appropriately ahead of schedule.\" 3. After 11 years, we once again mentioned \"rejuvenating the country through science and education\": high-quality education system + self-reliance through science and technology + cultivating and utilizing talents. 4. Expand domestic demand and focus on consumption. 1) New consumption: smart home, entertainment and tourism, sports events, and domestic “trendy products”. 2) Old consumption: new energy vehicles and electronic products. 3) Service consumption: Expand and improve services such as elderly care, child care, and housekeeping, and support social forces in providing community services. 5. Real estate: Real estate is placed under the theme of \"coordinating development and security\", emphasizing the supply side to increase the construction and supply of affordable housing to meet residents\\' rigid housing needs and diversified improved housing needs. 6. Externally: Promote negotiations on version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. 7. Capital market: The focus is on enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market + encouraging equity investment in new industries. 8. In urbanization, the county economy is focused on cultivating and developing the county economy, making up for the shortcomings in infrastructure and public services, and making the county an important carrier of new urbanization. 9. 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'事件：2024年3月5日，十四届全国人大二次会议在人民大会堂开幕，国务院总理向大会作政府工作报告。点评：经济增速设定在5%左右，坚持“稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破”2024年GDP增速目标为5%左右，与2023年持平，基本符合市场预期。我们认为，在内外部形势依旧复杂严峻的背景下，将2024年GDP增速目标定在5%左右的较高水平，一方面符合我国经济回升向好的基本情况。2023年中国经济总量稳步攀升，国内生产总值（GDP）超过126万亿元，全年实际GDP增速录得5.2%，高于政府预期目标（5.0%），且明显快于美国、欧元区、日本的经济增速；另一方面，5%左右的GDP增速目标符合中央经济工作会议以来“稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破”的工作总基调。《政府工作报告》表示，我国经济持续回升向好的基础还不稳固，有效需求不足，社会预期偏弱，风险隐患仍然较多。考虑到今年是实施“十四五”规划的关键之年，是巩固和增强经济回升向好态势、持续推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长承上启下之年，将目标设定在5%以上，有利于市场主体信心的恢复，聚焦于经济的高质量发展，也为后续GDP增速目标的设定预留一定弹性。在就业方面，《报告》提出2024年城镇调查失业率全年控制在5.5%左右，与2023年和“十四五”规划对失业率的要求基本保持一致。2024年城镇新增就业1200万人以上，较2023年“1200万人左右���的表述更为积极，体现出政府稳就业的决心。同时强调，要突出就业优先导向，加强财税、金融等政策对稳就业的支持，加大促就业专项政策力度；同时，强化促进青年就业政策举措，优化就业创业指导服务。物价方面，政府将居民消费价格预期涨幅连续四年设在3%左右。2023年居民消费价格上涨0.2%，反映出全年总需求偏弱。与世界主要经济体的通胀高位承压不同，我国去年的物价总水平低位回稳。而核心CPI同比增速保持低位震荡，指向我国面临需求偏弱的现实。不过随着降准降息、设备更新、消费品以旧换新等增量政策的不断落地，叠加后续经济企稳回升可期，消费需求、市场流通、居民企业预期等有望渐进向好，同时考虑到今年要着力释放内需潜力特别是消费需求，2024年物价的上行动力要高于2023年。我们认为将CPI涨幅目标维持在3%水平，为宏观政策实施提供了空间，又有利于更好保障基本民生。从近期来看，2024年1月CPI弱于市场预期、PPI降幅收窄，物价整体呈现波折修复，当前内生动力不强、需求不足等问题仍然突出。但1月CPI环比增速录得0.3%，已连续两个月上涨；核心通胀环比录得0.3%创去年8月以来最大涨幅，亦指向需求端的边际恢复。积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效，赤字率不变、专项债和超长期特别国债发行增加首先，2024年赤字率拟按3%安排，较2023年持平，赤字规模为4.06万亿，高于去年1800亿元。总体来看，3%的赤字率符合中国经济运行整体向好的客观实际、向外界释放积极的信号，也有利于控制政府负债率、增强财政可持续，为应对将来可能出现的风险挑战预留政策空间。另外，2024年拟安排地方政府专项债券3.9万亿元，创历史新高，较2023年的3.8万亿元增加约1000亿元。我们认为，增加地方政府专项债券发行，或是考虑到地方政府稳增长仍有压力、旨在发挥好政府投资的带动放大效应。此外，从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。这体现了中央加杠杆、地方降风险的政策导向，有助于减轻地方政府支出负担，支持地方债务风险化解。其次，从整体来看，《政府工作报告》延续了中央经济工作会议“积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效”的提法，加之2023年底中央发行万亿元特别国债，其中5000亿元结转至2024年使用，奠定了年内财政政策的基调，整体来看今年的财政政策将保持积极。此外，中央将“加大财政资金统筹力度，适度增加财政支出规模”，统筹考虑发展需要和财政可持续性。稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效，结构性货币政策覆盖范围更广《报告》指出稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效。保持流动性合理充裕，社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配。2024年政府工作报告对货币政策总基调与2023年12月中央经济工作会议保持一致。我们认为2024年货币政策或呈现小步慢走，渐进式支持经济增长。先前2月份5年期以上LPR调降25个基点，调降幅度创历史新高，释放逆周期调节信号，稳定市场预期。虽LPR利率已进行调降，但1月CPI通胀录得-0.8%，再创本轮新低，低通胀导致实际利率偏高。往后看，考虑到当前物价水平偏低推高企业和居民实际贷款利率，宏观经济景气度有待改善，货币政策仍存在放松空间，降准降息仍可期。此外，《报告》强调，加强总量和结构双重调节，盘活存量、提升效能，加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度。畅通货币政策传导机制，避免资金沉淀空转。结构性货币政策上，《报告》强调，将大力发展科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融。优化融资增信、风险分担、信息共享等配套措施，更好满足中小微企业融资需求，内容对比2023年政府工作报告更加细致，内涵更加丰富。后续央行的结构性政策也将持续发力来保持货币信贷的合理增长，同时加强政策工具创新，保证政策的精准有效。将科技创新置于更优先位置，针对消费，投资及进出口均有积极的政策部署2024年政府工作报告对于科技创新的重视程度进一步上升。2024年政府工作任务的首条便是“大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力”，强调推动产业链供应链优化升级，积极培育新兴产业和未来产业，深入推进数字经济创新发展等领域。未来政策重心或将通过科技创新来提高全社会劳动生产率和全要素生产率，促进经济高质量发展。巩固扩大智能网联新能���汽车等产业领先优势，加快前沿新兴氢能、新材料、创新药等产业发展，积极打造生物制造、商业航天、低空经济等新增长引擎。制定未来产业发展规划，开辟量子技术、生命科学等新赛道，创建一批未来产业先导区。消费方面，促进消费稳定增长。从增加收入、优化供给、减少限制性措施等方面综合施策，激发消费潜能。一方面，培育壮大新型消费，实施数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费促进政策，积极培育智能家居、文娱旅游、体育赛事、国货“潮品”等新的消费增长点。另一方面，稳定和扩大传统消费，鼓励和推动消费品以旧换新，提振智能网联新能源汽车、电子产品等大宗消费。推动养老、育幼、家政等服务扩容提质，支持社会力量提供社区服务。投资方面，积极扩大有效投资。发挥好政府投资的带动放大效应，重点支持科技创新、新型基础设施、节能减排降碳，加强民生等经济社会薄弱领域补短板，推进防洪排涝抗灾基础设施建设，推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造，加快实施“十四五”规划重大工程项目。今年中央预算内投资拟安排7000亿元。合理扩大地方政府专项债券投向领域和用作资本金范围，额度分配向项目准备充分、投资效率较高的地区倾斜。统筹用好各类资金，防止低效无效投资。深化投资审批制度改革。着力稳定和扩大民间投资，落实和完善支持政策，实施政府和社会资本合作新机制，鼓励民间资本参与重大项目建设。进一步拆除各种藩篱，在更多领域让民间投资进得来、能发展、有作为。最终把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来，更好统筹消费和投资，增强对经济增长的拉动作用。在进出口方面，推动外贸质升量稳。加强进出口信贷和出口信保支持，优化跨境结算、汇率风险管理等服务，支持企业开拓多元化市场。促进跨境电商等新业态健康发展，优化海外仓布局，支持加工贸易提档升级，拓展中间品贸易、绿色贸易等新增长点。积极扩大优质产品进口。全面实施跨境服务贸易负面清单。出台服务贸易、数字贸易创新发展政策。加快内外贸一体化发展。办好进博会、广交会、服贸会、数贸会等重大展会。加快国际物流体系建设，打造智慧海关，助力外贸企业降本提效。同时加大吸引外资力度。继续缩减外资准入负面清单，全面取消制造业领域外资准入限制措施，放宽电信、医疗等服务业市场准入。落实好外资企业国民待遇，保障依法平等参与政府采购、招标投标、标准制定，推动解决数据跨境流动等问题。加强外商投资服务保障，打造“投资中国”品牌。另外，《报告》亦提到多举措来推动经济稳步安全发展。在风险防范方面，优化房地产政策，对不同所有制房地产企业合理融资需求要一视同仁给予支持，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。统筹好地方债务风险化解和稳定发展，进一步落实一揽子化债方案，妥善化解存量债务风险、严防新增债务风险。稳妥推进一些地方的中小金融机构风险处置。严厉打击非法金融活动。在房地产方面，适应新型城镇化发展趋势和房地产市场供求关系变化，加快构建房地产发展新模式。加大保障性住房建设和供给，完善商品房相关基础性制度，满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求。在就业方面，加强财税、金融等政策对稳就业的支持，加大促就业专项政策力度。落实和完善稳岗返还、专项贷款、就业和社保补贴等政策，加强对就业容量大的行业企业支持。在国企和民企发展方面，深入实施国有企业改革深化提升行动，做强做优主业，增强核心功能、提高核心竞争力。建立国有经济布局优化和结构调整指引制度。全面落实促进民营经济发展壮大的意见及配套举措，进一步解决市场准入、要素获取、公平执法、权益保护等方面存在的突出问题。提高民营企业贷款占比、扩大发债融资规模，加强对个体工商户分类帮扶支持。总的来看，政府工作报告对经济发展定调积极，并有较多增量信息或超市场预期政策，有助于市场风险偏好的回升。《报告》对2024年经济增速设定在5%左右，与“十四五”规划和基本实现现代化的目标相衔接，也考虑了经济增长潜力和支撑条件，对经济发展提出更高要求。同时强调，要坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破。稳是大局和基础，各地区各部门要多出有利于稳预期、稳增长、稳就业的政策，谨慎出台收缩性抑制性举措，清理和废止有悖于高质量发展的政策规定，对外释放积极��政策信号。积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效。4.06万亿赤字，3.9万亿专项债，1万亿超长期特别国债指向财政扩张空间明显。稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效。此外，《报告》针对投资、消费以及进出口均有政策部署，同时更注重相关风险化解的稳步推进，统筹化解房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等风险，维护经济金融大局稳定。最后，《报告》对于科技创新的重视程度进一步上升，将科技创新置于更优先位置，凸显科技创新的重要性，亦指向未来政策重心或将通过科技创新来提高全社会劳动生产率和全要素生产率，促进经济高质量发展。随着政府工作报告释放政策新风，增量政策不断出台，经济有望加快修复。根据政策方向，可关注新老基建、科技、国有企业估值重塑等板块机会。风险提示海外经济超预期下滑，以及中美贸易摩擦超预期恶化，导致外需回落，国内出口承压；全球主要经济体超预期延长加息周期，高利率环境使全球经济增速明显放缓，压缩国内资金面；海外信用收缩引发风险事件，可能对市场流动性造成冲击，干扰利率和汇率走势。', 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'事件：2024年3月5日，十四届全国人大二次会议在人民大会堂开幕，国务院总理向大会作政府工作报告。点评：经济增速设定在5%左右，坚持“稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破”2024年GDP增速目标为5%左右，与2023年持平，基本符合市场预期。我们认为，在内外部形势依旧复杂严峻的背景下，将2024年GDP增速目标定在5%左右的较高水平，一方面符合我国经济回升向好的基本情况。2023年中国经济总量稳步攀升，国内生产总值（GDP）超过126万亿元，全年实际GDP增速录得5.2%，高于政府预期目标（5.0%），且明显快于美国、欧元区、日本的经济增速；另一方面，5%左右的GDP增速目标符合中央经济工作会议以来“稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破”的工作总基调。《政府工作报告》表示，我国经济持续回升向好的基础还不稳固，有效需求不足，社会预期偏弱，风险隐患仍然较多。考虑到今年是实施“十四五”规划的关键之年，是巩固和增强经济回升向好态势、持续推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长承上启下之年，将目标设定在5%以上，有利于市场主体信心的恢复，聚焦于经济的高质量发展，也为后续GDP增速目标的设定预留一定弹性。在就业方面，《报告》提出2024年城镇调查失业率全年控制在5.5%左右，与2023年和“十四五”规划对失业率的要求基本保持一致。2024年城镇新增就业1200万人以上，较2023年“1200万人左右”的表述更为积极，体现出政府稳就业的决心。同时强调，要突出就业优先导向，加强财税、金融等政策对稳就业的支持，加大促就业专项政策力度；同时，强化促进青年就业政策举措，优化就业创业指导服务。物价方面，政府将居民消费价格预期涨幅连续四年设在3%左右。2023年居民消费价格上涨0.2%，反映出全年总需求偏弱。与世界主要经济体的通胀高位承压不同，我国去年的物价总水平低位回稳。而核心CPI同比增速保持低位震荡，指向我国面临需求偏弱的现实。不过随着降准降息、设备更新、消费品以旧换新等增量政策的不断落地，叠加后续经济企稳回升可期，消费需求、市场流通、居民企业预期等有望渐进向好，同时考虑到今年要着力释放内需潜力特别是消费需求，2024年物价的上行动力要高于2023年。我们认为将CPI涨幅目标维持在3%水平，为宏观政策实施提供了空间，又有利于更好保障基本民生。从近期来看，2024年1月CPI弱于市场预期、PPI降幅收窄，物价整体呈现波折修复，当前内生动力不强、需求不足等问题仍然突出。但1月CPI环比增速录得0.3%，已连续两个月上涨；核心通胀环比录得0.3%创去年8月以来最大涨幅，亦指向需求端的边际恢复。积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效，赤字率不变、专项债和超长期特别国债发行增加首先，2024年赤字率拟按3%安排，较2023年持平，赤字规模为4.06万亿，高于去年1800亿元。总体来看，3%的赤字率符合中国经济运行整体向好的客观实际、向外界释放积极的信号，也有利于控制政府负债率、增强财政可持续，为应对将来可能出现的风险挑战预留政策空间。另外，2024年拟安排地方政府专项债券3.9万亿元，创历史新高，较2023年的3.8万亿元增加约1000亿元。我们认为，增加地方政府专项债券发行，或是考虑到地方政府稳增长仍有压力、旨在发挥好政府投资的带动放大效应。此外，从今年开始拟连续几年发行超��期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。这体现了中央加杠杆、地方降风险的政策导向，有助于减轻地方政府支出负担，支持地方债务风险化解。其次，从整体来看，《政府工作报告》延续了中央经济工作会议“积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效”的提法，加之2023年底中央发行万亿元特别国债，其中5000亿元结转至2024年使用，奠定了年内财政政策的基调，整体来看今年的财政政策将保持积极。此外，中央将“加大财政资金统筹力度，适度增加财政支出规模”，统筹考虑发展需要和财政可持续性。稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效，结构性货币政策覆盖范围更广《报告》指出稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效。保持流动性合理充裕，社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配。2024年政府工作报告对货币政策总基调与2023年12月中央经济工作会议保持一致。我们认为2024年货币政策或呈现小步慢走，渐进式支持经济增长。先前2月份5年期以上LPR调降25个基点，调降幅度创历史新高，释放逆周期调节信号，稳定市场预期。虽LPR利率已进行调降，但1月CPI通胀录得-0.8%，再创本轮新低，低通胀导致实际利率偏高。往后看，考虑到当前物价水平偏低推高企业和居民实际贷款利率，宏观经济景气度有待改善，货币政策仍存在放松空间，降准降息仍可期。此外，《报告》强调，加强总量和结构双重调节，盘活存量、提升效能，加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度。畅通货币政策传导机制，避免资金沉淀空转。结构性货币政策上，《报告》强调，将大力发展科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融。优化融资增信、风险分担、信息共享等配套措施，更好满足中小微企业融资需求，内容对比2023年政府工作报告更加细致，内涵更加丰富。后续央行的结构性政策也将持续发力来保持货币信贷的合理增长，同时加强政策工具创新，保证政策的精准有效。将科技创新置于更优先位置，针对消费，投资及进出口均有积极的政策部署2024年政府工作报告对于科技创新的重视程度进一步上升。2024年政府工作任务的首条便是“大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力”，强调推动产业链供应链优化升级，积极培育新兴产业和未来产业，深入推进数字经济创新发展等领域。未来政策重心或将通过科技创新来提高全社会劳动生产率和全要素生产率，促进经济高质量发展。巩固扩大智能网联新能源汽车等产业领先优势，加快前沿新兴氢能、新材料、创新药等产业发展，积极打造生物制造、商业航天、低空经济等新增长引擎。制定未来产业发展规划，开辟量子技术、生命科学等新赛道，创建一批未来产业先导区。消费方面，促进消费稳定增长。从增加收入、优化供给、减少限制性措施等方面综合施策，激发消费潜能。一方面，培育壮大新型消费，实施数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费促进政策，积极培育智能家居、文娱旅游、体育赛事、国货“潮品”等新的消费增长点。另一方面，稳定和扩大传统消费，鼓励和推动消费品以旧换新，提振智能网联新能源汽车、电子产品等大宗消费。推动养老、育幼、家政等服务扩容提质，支持社会力量提供社区服务。投资方面，积极扩大有效投资。发挥好政府投资的带动放大效应，重点支持科技创新、新型基础设施、节能减排降碳，加强民生等经济社会薄弱领域补短板，推进防洪排涝抗灾基础设施建设，推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造，加快实施“十四五”规划重大工程项目。今年中央预算内投资拟安排7000亿元。合理扩大地方政府专项债券投向领域和用作资本金范围，额度分配向项目准备充分、投资效率较高的地区倾斜。统筹用好各类资金，防止低效无效投资。深化投资审批制度改革。着力稳定和扩大民间投资，落实和完善支持政策，实施政府和社会资本合作新机制，鼓励民间资本参与重大项目建设。进一步拆除各种藩篱，在更多领域让民间投资进得来、能发展、有作为。最终把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来，更好统筹消费和投资，增强对经济增长的拉动作用。在进出口方面，推动外贸质升量稳。加强进出口信贷和出口信保支持，优化跨境结算、汇率风险管理等服务，支持企业开拓多元化市场。促进跨境电商等新业态健康发展，优化海外仓布局，支持加工贸��提档升级，拓展中间品贸易、绿色贸易等新增长点。积极扩大优质产品进口。全面实施跨境服务贸易负面清单。出台服务贸易、数字贸易创新发展政策。加快内外贸一体化发展。办好进博会、广交会、服贸会、数贸会等重大展会。加快国际物流体系建设，打造智慧海关，助力外贸企业降本提效。同时加大吸引外资力度。继续缩减外资准入负面清单，全面取消制造业领域外资准入限制措施，放宽电信、医疗等服务业市场准入。落实好外资企业国民待遇，保障依法平等参与政府采购、招标投标、标准制定，推动解决数据跨境流动等问题。加强外商投资服务保障，打造“投资中国”品牌。另外，《报告》亦提到多举措来推动经济稳步安全发展。在风险防范方面，优化房地产政策，对不同所有制房地产企业合理融资需求要一视同仁给予支持，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。统筹好地方债务风险化解和稳定发展，进一步落实一揽子化债方案，妥善化解存量债务风险、严防新增债务风险。稳妥推进一些地方的中小金融机构风险处置。严厉打击非法金融活动。在房地产方面，适应新型城镇化发展趋势和房地产市场供求关系变化，加快构建房地产发展新模式。加大保障性住房建设和供给，完善商品房相关基础性制度，满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求。在就业方面，加强财税、金融等政策对稳就业的支持，加大促就业专项政策力度。落实和完善稳岗返还、专项贷款、就业和社保补贴等政策，加强对就业容量大的行业企业支持。在国企和民企发展方面，深入实施国有企业改革深化提升行动，做强做优主业，增强核心功能、提高核心竞争力。建立国有经济布局优化和结构调整指引制度。全面落实促进民营经济发展壮大的意见及配套举措，进一步解决市场准入、要素获取、公平执法、权益保护等方面存在的突出问题。提高民营企业贷款占比、扩大发债融资规模，加强对个体工商户分类帮扶支持。总的来看，政府工作报告对经济发展定调积极，并有较多增量信息或超市场预期政策，有助于市场风险偏好的回升。《报告》对2024年经济增速设定在5%左右，与“十四五”规划和基本实现现代化的目标相衔接，也考虑了经济增长潜力和支撑条件，对经济发展提出更高要求。同时强调，要坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破。稳是大局和基础，各地区各部门要多出有利于稳预期、稳增长、稳就业的政策，谨慎出台收缩性抑制性举措，清理和废止有悖于高质量发展的政策规定，对外释放积极的政策信号。积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效。4.06万亿赤字，3.9万亿专项债，1万亿超长期特别国债指向财政扩张空间明显。稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效。此外，《报告》针对投资、消费以及进出口均有政策部署，同时更注重相关风险化解的稳步推进，统筹化解房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等风险，维护经济金融大局稳定。最后，《报告》对于科技创新的重视程度进一步上升，将科技创新置于更优先位置，凸显科技创新的重要性，亦指向未来政策重心或将通过科技创新来提高全社会劳动生产率和全要素生产率，促进经济高质量发展。随着政府工作报告释放政策新风，增量政策不断出台，经济有望加快修复。根据政策方向，可关注新老基建、科技、国有企业估值重塑等板块机会。风险提示海外经济超预期下滑，以及中美贸易摩擦超预期恶化，导致外需回落，国内出口承压；全球主要经济体超预期延长加息周期，高利率环境使全球经济增速明显放缓，压缩国内资金面；海外信用收缩引发风险事件，可能对市场流动性造成冲击，干扰利率和汇率走势。', 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'事项：2024年3月5日，第十四届全国人民代表大会二次会议开幕，国务院总理李强代表国务院向大会作政府工作报告。平安观点：整体基调：GDP增长目标5.0%左右，发展新质生产力。政府工作报告研判今年我国发展面临的环境仍是战略机遇和风险挑战并存，有利因素强于不利因素，全年GDP增速目标设定为5.0%左右。报告明确指出，实现今年预期目标并非易事，需要政策聚焦发力、工作加倍努力、各方面齐心协力，增强宏观政策取向一致性。一是积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效，赤字率拟按3%安排，与去年目标持平，地方新增专项债拟安排3.9万亿，比去年增加1000亿元，拟发行1万亿元超长期特别国债，用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，谋划新一轮财税体制改革。二是稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效，保持流动性合理充裕，加强总量和结构双重调节，大力发展金融服务实体五大篇文章。三是产业政策聚焦发展新质生产力和现代化产业体系，发展先进制造业，培育新兴产业和未来产业，发展数字经济。四是社会政策，重视稳就业促增收，积极应对人口老龄化，大力发展银发经济。五是金融领域，要有效防范化解地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等重点领域风险，增强资本市场内在稳定性。结合政府工作报告的基调和重点工作，资本市场或重点关注以下主线：第一条主线是新质生产力，关注数字经济、先进制造、新能源、生物医药等现代化产业体系重点方向。政府工作报告将“大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力”列为2024年政府工作任务的首位，强调“以科技创新推动产业创新”。一是推动产业链供应链优化升级，推动传统产业高端化、智能化、绿色化转型，培育壮大先进制造业集群；二是积极培育新兴产业和未来产业，巩固扩大智能网联新能源汽车等产业领先优势，加快前沿新兴氢能、新材料、创新药等产业发展，打造生物制造、商业航天、低空经济等新增长引擎，规划量子技术、生命科学等未来产业，另外提出加强重点行业统筹布局和投资引导，防止产能过剩和低水平重复建设；三是深入推进数字经济创新发展，深化大数据、人工智能等研发应用，部署开展“人工智能+”行动、加快工业互联网规模化应用、适度超前建设数字基础设施等。今年以来，高层会议也就发展“新质生产力”进行学习规划，2/29中共中央政治局年内第二次集体学习关注新能源技术与我国的能源安全。地方2024年政府工作报告也多有提及“新质生产力”，强调发展产业集群。据工信部披露，目前我国共有45个国家级先进制造业集群，新一代信息技术领域13个、高端装备领域13个、新材料领域7个、生物医药及高端医疗器械领域5个、消费品领域4个、新能源及智能网联汽车领域3个。第二条主线是着力扩大内需，“大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新”是重要抓手。政府工作报告将“着力扩大国内需求，推动经济实现良性循环”列为工作任务的第三项，提出“鼓励和推动消费品以旧换新”“推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造”。这一方面出于积极扩大有效投资、扩大国内需求的要求，也基于部分传统行业产能周期迭代的考量，是推进产业体系高端化/智能化/绿色化转型、发展新质生产力的重要一环。2024年以来，高层会议已经对此有多项工作部署。2月23日，中央财经委员会第四次会议便提出，研究大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新问题，研究有效降低全社会物流成本问题，鼓励汽车、家电等传统消费品以旧换新，降低物流成本方面要求优化运输结构、优化主干线大通道、统筹规划物流枢纽，鼓励发展与平台经济、低空经济、无人驾驶等结合的物流新模式，发展临空经济、临港经济等。随后，3月1日召开的国务院常务会议上审议通过《推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案》，指出推动消费品以旧换新是党中央重大决策，推动高质量耐用消费品进入居民生活。此外，政府工作报告在扩大有效投资方面还强调，“发挥好政府投资的带动放大效应，重点支持科技创新、新型基础设施、节能减排降碳”，相关领域的投资机会值得关注。第三条主线是中国品牌出海，支持企业拓展多元化国际市场，打造更多具有国际影响力的中国制造品牌。政府工作报告总结了2023年我国外贸在稳规模、优结构方面的积极成果，电动汽车、锂电池、光伏产品“新三样”出口增长近30%；对于2024年，报告强调“推动外贸质升量稳”，加强进出口信贷、结算、汇率风险管理等金融服务，支持企业开拓多元化市场，促进跨境电商等新业态健康发展，优化海外仓布局，支持加工贸易提档升级，拓展中间品贸易、绿色贸易等新增长点，支持服务贸易、数字贸易创新发展，加快国际物流体系建设、打造智慧海关等。引入外资方面，报告还提到，继续缩减外资准入负面清单，放宽电信、医疗等服务业市场准入，赋予自贸试验区等更多自主权，推动开发区改革创新。第四条主线是国企改革，关注央国企市值管理和人工智能布局。政府工作报告提出，深入实施国有企业改革深化提升行动，做强做优主业，增强核心功能、提高核心竞争力，建立国有经济布局优化和结构调整指引制度。在高质量发展的总体目标下，国有企业在发展新质生产力、保障产业链供应链安全、通过科技创新引领产业创新等方面将发挥重要作用，2024年以来，国资委对新一轮国企改革深化提升行动也作出密集工作部署，包括“研究将市值管理纳入中央企业负责人业绩考核”，推动央企加快布局发展人工智能产业、带头建设一批智能算力中心、开展AI+专项行动实现行业赋能等。另外，房地产政策延续“加快构建房地产发展新模式”的转型政策导向，关注“三大工程”增量。报告关于房地产方面的工作安排关注两方面。第一，推动房地产发展转型，提出适应新型城镇化发展趋势和房地产市场供求关系，加大保障性住房建设和供给，完善商品房相关基础性制度，满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求；优化房地产政策，对不同所有制房地产企业合理融资要求要一视同仁给予支持，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。第二，积极推进新型城镇化，稳步实施城市更新行动，推进“平急两用”公共基础设施建设和城中村改造。根据国开行2024年2月21日召开的服务“三大工程”现场推动会上表示，截至2024年2月20日，全行已发放城中村改造专项借款360多亿元，涉及北京、上海、广州等32个城市223个项目，惠及城中村居民26万户，支持建设安置房54万套。风险提示：1）宏观经济修复不及预期；2）金融监管政策超预期收紧；3）海外资本市场波动加大。', 'content': '事项：2024年3月5日，第十四届全国人民代表大会二次会议开幕，国务院总理李强代表国务院向大会作政府工作报告。平安观点：整体基调：GDP增长目标5.0%左右，发展新质生产力。政府工作报告研判今年我国发展面临的环境仍是战略机遇和风险挑战并存，有利因素强于不利因素，全年GDP增速目标设定为5.0%左右。报告明确指出，实现今年预期目标并非易事，需要政策聚焦发力、工作加倍努力、各方面齐心协力，增强宏观政策取向一致性。一是积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效，赤字率拟按3%安排，与去年目标持平，地方新增专项债拟安排3.9万亿，比去年增加1000亿元，拟发行1万亿元超长期特别国债，用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，谋划新一轮财税体制改革。二是稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效，保持流动性合理充裕，加强总量和结构双重调节，大力发展金融服务实体五大篇文章。三是产业政策聚焦发展新质生产力和现代化产业体系，发展先进制造业，培育新兴产业和未来产业，发展数字经济。四是社会政策，重视稳就业促增收，积极应对人口老龄化，大力发展银发经济。五是金融领域，要有效防范化解地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等重点领域风险，增强资本市场内在稳定性。结合政府工作报告的基调和重点工作，资本市场或重点关注以下主线：第一条主线是新质生产力，关注数字经济、先进制造、新能源、生物医药等现代化产业体系重点方向。政府工作报告将“大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力”列为2024年政府工作任务的首位，强调“以科技创新推动产业创新”。一是推动产业链供应链优化升级，推动传统产业高端化、智能化、绿色化转型，培育壮大先进制造业集群；二是积极培育新兴产业和未来产业，巩固扩大智能网联新能源汽车等产业领先优势，加快前沿新兴氢能、新材料、创新药等产业发展，打造生物制造、商业航天、低空经济等新增长引擎，规划量子技术、生命科学等未来产业，另外提出加强重点行业统筹布局和投资引导，防止产能过剩和低水平重复建设；三是深入推进数字经济创新发展，深化大数据、人工智能等研发应用，部署开展“人工智能+”行动、加快工业互联网规模化应用、适度超前建设数字基础设施等。今年以来，高层会议也就发展“新质生产力”进行学习规划，2/29中共中央政治局年内第二次集体学习关注新能源技术与我国的能源安全。地方2024年政府工作报告也多有提及“新质生产力”，强调发展产业集群。据工信部披露，目前我国共有45个国家级先进制造业集群，新一代信息技术领域13个、高端装备领域13个、新材料领域7个、生物医药及高端医疗器械领域5个、消费品领域4个、新能源及智能网联汽车领域3个。第二条主线是着力扩大内需，“大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新”是重要抓手。政府工作报告将“着力扩大国内需求，推动经济实现良性循环”列为工作任务的第三项，提出“鼓励和推动消费品以旧换新”“推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造”。这一方面出于积极扩大有效投资、扩大国内需求的要求，也基于部分传统行业产能周期迭代的考量，是推进产业体系高端化/智能化/绿色化转型、发展新质生产力的重要一环。2024年以来，高层会议已经对此有多项工作部署。2月23日，中央财经委员会第四次会议便提出，研究大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新问题，研究有效降低全社会物流成本问题，鼓励汽车、家电等传统消费品以旧换新，降低物流成本方面要求优化运输结构、优化主干线大通道、统筹规划物流枢纽，鼓励发展与平台经济、低空经济、无人驾驶等结合的物流新模式，发展临空经济、临港经济等。随后，3月1日召开的国务院常务会议上审议通过《推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案》，指出推动消费品以旧换新是党中央重大决策，推动高质量耐用消费品进入居民生活。此外，政府工作报告在扩大有效投资方面还强调，“发挥好政府投资的带动放大效应，重点支持科技创新、新型基础设施、节能减排降碳”，相关领域的投资机会值得关注。第三条主线是中国品牌出海，支持企业拓展多元化国际市场，打造更多具有国际影响力的中国制造品牌。政府工作报告总结了2023年我国外贸在稳规模、优结构方面的积极成果，电动汽车、锂电池、光伏产品“新三样”出口增长近30%；对于2024年，报告强调“推动外贸质升量稳”，加强进出口信贷、结算、汇率风险管理等金融服务，支持企业开拓多元化市场，促进跨境电商等新业态健康发展，优化海外仓布局，支持加工贸易提档升级，拓展中间品贸易、绿色贸易等新增长点，支持服务贸易、数字贸易创新发展，加快国际物流体系建设、打造智慧海关等。引入外资方面，报告还提到，继续缩减外资准入负面清单，放宽电信、医疗等服务业市场准入，赋予自贸试验区等更多自主权，推动开发区改革创新。第四条主线是国企改革，关注央国企市值管理和人工智能布局。政府工作报告提出，深入实施国有企业改革深化提升行动，做强做优主业，增强核心功能、提高核心竞争力，建立国有经济布局优化和结构调整指引制度。在高质量发展的总体目标下，国有企业在发展新质生产力、保障产业链供应链安全、通过科技创新引领产业创新等方面将发挥重要作用，2024年以来，国资委对新一轮国企改革深化提升行动也作出密集工作部署，包括“研究将市值管理纳入中央企业负责人业绩考核”，推动央企加快布局发展人工智能产业、带头建设一批智能算力中心、开展AI+专项行动实现行业赋能等。另外，房地产政策延续“加快构建房地产发展新模式”的转型政策导向，关注“三大工程”增量。报告关于房地产方面的工作安排关注两方面。第一，推动房地产发展转型，提出适应新型城镇化发展趋势和房地产市场供求关系，加大保障性住房建设和供给，完善商品房相关基础性制度，满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求；优化房地产���策，对不同所有制房地产企业合理融资要求要一视同仁给予支持，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。第二，积极推进新型城镇化，稳步实施城市更新行动，推进“平急两用”公共基础设施建设和城中村改造。根据国开行2024年2月21日召开的服务“三大工程”现场推动会上表示，截至2024年2月20日，全行已发放城中村改造专项借款360多亿元，涉及北京、上海、广州等32个城市223个项目，惠及城中村居民26万户，支持建设安置房54万套。风险提示：1）宏观经济修复不及预期；2）金融监管政策超预期收紧；3）海外资本市场波动加大。', 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['11000175009', '11000369352'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYIlb24sESRQ/NppVps042TM=', 'site': 'Guolian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625520714_1.pdf?1709660855000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625520714_1.pdf?1709660855000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on the National Two Sessions in 2024: Policy goals are basically in line with expectations', 'originalAuthor': '樊磊,方诗超', 'originalContent': '事件：3月5日，十四届全国人大二次会议于北京召开，李强总理作政府工作报告（以下简称“报告”）。报告回顾了2023年的政府工作，明确了2024年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向，并对2024年的政府工作任务进行了部署。我们认为，报告提出的经济增长目标基本符合预期，传递了较强的稳增长信号，财政政策安排也体现了财政“适度加力”、中央地方财政转杠杆的特征，工作任务安排上现代化产业建设与民生保障的重要性有所上升。事件点评5%左右的GDP目标传递稳增长信号报告提出，今年GDP增速目标在5%左右，基本符合预期，并传递了较强的稳增长信号。我们认为，在过去一段时间实际产出下行到潜在增速以下的情况下，在2024年实现相对较高的经济增速，有利于稳就业与保障居民收入增长，减少通缩风险。同时，报告指出，“实现今年预期目标并非易事，需要政策聚焦发力、工作加倍努力、各方面齐心协力”。从近期超预期的社融、PMI以及春节假期消费数据来看，我们对实现这一目标有较强的信心。财政安排符合“适度加力”、“转杠杆”的基调报告延续了此前中央经济和金融工作会议提出的“财政政策适度加力”、“优化央地债务结构”的基调，赤字率拟按3%安排，地方专项债拟按3.9万亿元安排，从今年开始连续几年发行超长期特别国债并在今年先发行１万亿元。我们的测算显示，在中央财政加杠杆的贡献下，2024年预算内资金用于基建投资的规模或将有两位数以上的增长，即使考虑报告也对地方财政提出了“过紧日子”的要求，全年基建投资增速仍有望达到6-7%的水平。重视现代化产业建设与民生保障对比2023年与2024年政府工作任务，我们认为报告对现代化产业体系建设、民生保障与社会事业两大领域的重视程度有进一步上升。一方面，报告提出要“培育新兴产业与未来产业”，“加快前沿新兴氢能、新材料、创新药等产业发展，积极打造生物制造、商业航天、低空经济等新增长引擎……开辟量子技术、生命科学等新赛道”。另一方面，报告在民生工作领域，对民生相关的基础设施建设与稳就业促增收进行了更为详细的安排。风险提示：对政策的意图理解不到位，地缘政治风险超预期', 'content': 'Event: On March 5, the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress was held in Beijing. Premier Li Qiang delivered a government work report (hereinafter referred to as the \"report\"). The report reviews government work in 2023, clarifies the overall requirements and policy orientation for economic and social development in 2024, and deploys government work tasks in 2024. We believe that the economic growth targets proposed in the report are basically in line with expectations and send a strong signal of stable growth. The fiscal policy arrangements also reflect the characteristics of \"appropriate fiscal strengthening\" and central and local fiscal leverage. The work tasks are arranged to build modern industries. The importance of protecting people\\'s livelihood has increased. Event Comments: The GDP target of around 5% sends a signal of stable growth. The report proposed that this year’s GDP growth target is around 5%, which is basically in line with expectations and sends a strong signal of stable growth. We believe that in the past period of time when actual output has dropped below the potential growth rate, achieving a relatively high economic growth rate in 2024 will be conducive to stabilizing employment and ensuring residents\\' income growth, and reducing the risk of deflation. At the same time, the report pointed out that \"achieving this year\\'s expected goals is not easy. It requires focused policies, redoubled efforts, and concerted efforts from all aspects.\" Judging from the recent higher-than-expected social finance, PMI and Spring Festival holiday consumption data, we have strong confidence in achieving this goal. The fiscal arrangement is in line with the keynote of \"appropriately increasing fiscal policy\" and \"leveraging\". The report continues the keynote of \"appropriately increasing fiscal policy\" and \"optimizing the central and local debt structure\" proposed by the previous Central Economic and Financial Work Conference. The deficit ratio is planned to be 3 % arrangement, local special bonds are planned to be arranged at 3.9 trillion yuan, and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued for several consecutive years starting from this year and 1 trillion yuan will be issued first this year. Our calculations show that with the contribution of the central government\\'s increased leverage, the scale of budget funds used for infrastructure investment in 2024 may increase by more than double digits. Even considering the report, local finances are \"tightened\". According to requirements, the growth rate of infrastructure investment throughout the year is still expected to reach 6-7%. Paying Attention to Modern Industrial Construction and People\\'s Livelihood Security Comparing the government work tasks in 2023 and 2024, we believe that the report has further increased its emphasis on the construction of modern industrial system, people\\'s livelihood security and social undertakings. On the one hand, the report proposes to \"cultivate emerging industries and future industries\", \"accelerate the development of cutting-edge emerging hydrogen energy, new materials, innovative drugs and other industries, and actively create new growth engines such as biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy... to open up quantum technology , life sciences and other new tracks.” On the other hand, in the field of people\\'s livelihood work, the report makes more detailed arrangements for infrastructure construction related to people\\'s livelihood and stabilizing employment and increasing income. Risk warning: Inadequate understanding of policy intentions, geopolitical risks exceeding expectations', 'authorid': UUID('b6747a67-28e3-5d3e-a47d-fd6929bfa2b9'), 'sentimentScore': 0.26227645948529243, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'LJFGT6D5VRBUDHHLJDQ53MM3UJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:13 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'LJFGT6D5VRBUDHHLJDQ53MM3UJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('088119ef-a1c1-50ac-b6b3-aefa2dd88bfc'), 'title': 'Study and interpretation of the 2024 Government Work Report: Concentrate on promoting high-quality development', 'author': 'Yan Xiang, Xu Ruchun', 'orgName': '华福证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000065', 'orgSName': '华福证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYLmQ63bawHgJ+ChYm9PmspM=', 'researcher': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000223033', '11000339132'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYLmQ63bawHgJ+ChYm9PmspM=', 'site': 'Huafu Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华福证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625516979_1.pdf?1709657705000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625516979_1.pdf?1709657705000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Study and interpretation of the 2024 Government Work Report: Concentrate on promoting high-quality development', 'originalAuthor': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'originalContent': '事件：3月5日，李强总理在十四届全国人大二次会议上做了《政府工作报告》，回顾了2023年的工作，提出了2024年经济社会发展预期目标、总体要求和政策取向，部署了2024年政府工作重点任务。投资要点：《政府工作报告》提出，2024年全年国内生产总值增长5%左右，与2023年保持一致。在这个基础上，城镇新增就业1200万人以上，城镇调查失业率5.5%左右；居民消费价格涨幅3%左右；居民收入增长与经济增长基本同步；国际收支保持基本平衡；粮食产量保持在1.3万亿斤以上；单位国内生产总值能耗降低2.5%左右，生态环境质量持续改善。积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效，赤字率方面，2024年的赤字率拟按3%安排，预算赤字规模4.06万亿元。2024年将安排新增地方政府专项债发行3.9万亿人民币，较2023年增加1000亿元。此外，为系统解决强国建设、民族复兴进程中一些重大项目建设的资金问题，从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。超长期特别国债的发行可以提供更为稳定的资金来源，不仅有助于提升我国财政政策的可持续性，也是我国未来长远发展所需要的重要财政工具。稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效。保持流动性合理充裕，社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配。促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降。增强资本市场内在稳定性。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定，基本延续了中央经济工作会议的基调。总体来看，本次会议更加关注集中力量推动高质量发展，特别是强调现代化产业体系的建设与新质生产力的发展。我们认为，未来宏观政策将继续强化逆周期和跨周期调节，积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效，中央财政适度发力，优化中央和地方政府债务结构；稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效，总体上偏宽松，年内存在进一步降准降息的可能性，结构上将更加注重政策的实施效果，发挥货币政策的结构优化作用，结构性货币政策工具将持续发力。对资本市场而言，当前十年期国债收益率处于历史低位，同时上市公司盈利已经处于底部位置，市场对分子端较为钝化，我们认为分母的逻辑更容易兑现，权益市场继续上行的可能性较大，方向上重点关注与科技创新相关的品种，以及受益于利率下行的红利品种。风险提示：一是地缘政治风险超预期；二是宏观经济不及预期；三是海外市场大幅波动等。', 'content': 'Event: On March 5, Premier Li Qiang delivered the \"Government Work Report\" at the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress, reviewing the work in 2023 and proposing the expected goals, overall requirements and policy orientation for economic and social development in 2024. The key government tasks for 2024 have been deployed. Investment points: The \"Government Work Report\" proposes that the annual GDP growth in 2024 will be about 5%, consistent with 2023. On this basis, more than 12 million new urban jobs will be created, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate will be around 5.5%; consumer prices will increase by around 3%; residents’ income growth will basically keep pace with economic growth; the international balance of payments will remain basically balanced; and grain output will remain at More than 1.3 trillion kilograms; energy consumption per unit of GDP is reduced by about 2.5%, and the quality of the ecological environment continues to improve. The proactive fiscal policy must be appropriately intensified and improve quality and efficiency. In terms of deficit ratio, the deficit ratio in 2024 is planned to be 3%, with a budget deficit of 4.06 trillion yuan. In 2024, 3.9 trillion yuan of new local government special bonds will be issued, an increase of 100 billion yuan compared with 2023. In addition, in order to systematically solve the funding problems of some major projects in the process of building a strong country and national rejuvenation, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years starting from this year, specifically for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas. The first issuance this year 1 trillion yuan. The issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds can provide a more stable source of funds, which not only helps to improve the sustainability of our country\\'s fiscal policy, but is also an important fiscal tool needed for our country\\'s future long-term development. A prudent monetary policy must be flexible, appropriate, precise and effective. Maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and ensure that the scale of social financing and money supply match the expected goals of economic growth and price levels. Promote social comprehensive financing costs to stabilize and decline. Enhance the inherent stability of the capital market. Maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level basically continues the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference. Overall, this meeting focused more on concentrating efforts to promote high-quality development, especially emphasizing the construction of a modern industrial system and the development of new productive forces. We believe that in the future, macro policies will continue to strengthen counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustments. Proactive fiscal policies must be appropriately intensified to improve quality and efficiency. The central government must make appropriate efforts to optimize the debt structure of central and local governments. Stable monetary policies must be flexible. Moderate, precise and effective, and generally loose, there is the possibility of further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts during the year. Structurally, more attention will be paid to the implementation effect of the policy, the structural optimization role of monetary policy will be brought into play, and structural monetary policy tools will continue to exert force. For the capital market, the current ten-year government bond yield is at a historical low, and the profits of listed companies are already at the bottom. The market is relatively blunt on the numerator. We believe that the logic of the denominator is easier to realize, and the equity market is likely to continue to rise. Larger, the direction focuses on varieties related to technological innovation, as well as dividend varieties that benefit from falling interest rates. Risk warning: First, geopolitical risks exceed expectations; second, macroeconomic conditions fall short of expectations; third, overseas markets fluctuate significantly, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('91584e59-c8cd-5c63-a616-39b00d7419c0'), 'sentimentScore': 0.15336148720234632, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '5FPI04EH0D8RLRMJP592P6FAEVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '5FPI04EH0D8RLRMJP592P6FAEVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a311fa23-0a28-5419-8d52-b1d6a2ca2ff8'), 'title': 'How to understand the 3% deficit ratio target?', 'author': 'Zhang Jun ,Nie Tianqi', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYDQ48ydzRVcQci80elxczfE=', 'researcher': '章俊,聂天奇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000450636'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYDQ48ydzRVcQci80elxczfE=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625514201_1.pdf?1709655002000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625514201_1.pdf?1709655002000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'How to understand the 3% deficit ratio target?', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,聂天奇', 'originalContent': '核心观点：3月5日十四届全国人大二次会议开幕，根据政府工作报告内容显示，2024年财政预算赤字率为3%，新增专项债额度为3.9万亿元，同时拟发行1万亿超长期特别国债。直观感受上，3%的赤字率可能会被市场解读为财政发力相对克制，但我们认为3%的目标赤字率更多体现的是对于政府行政开支的财政约束，而非政策力度的紧缩。实际上，在考虑到物价水平因素2024年实际赤字率可能略高于3%，而考虑专项债和特别国债后的政府广义赤字率也高于去年，由此推算今年政府性基金支出的增速规模更将大幅高于去年。“适度加力”的财政力度并未弱于去年。3%赤字率的重要意义在于财政纪律约束，不代表政策的紧缩意图。首先需要明确的是：历年目标赤字率本就不能完全代表财政扩张力度，一般公共预算的狭义赤字率主要反映的是政府一般性事务的收支缺口，仅包括部分政府投资。在中央经济工作会议和全国财政工作会议中提出“政府要适应过紧日子”的基础上，我们认为坚守3%红线的主要意义在于控制政府公共开支的盲目扩张。此外，由于疫后财政收入持续回升及去年的新增国债，今年一本账财政支出压力大幅缓解，相应的一般政府债务融资需求也有所降低。从目前财政存款的余额来看，去年10月份大幅提升之后，截止今年1月份财政存款余额仍有6.65万亿，显著高于往年同期。表明当���财政资金相对充裕，且具有一定规模的流动性待释放，按往年均值（约5.4万亿）来看，目前有约1.25万亿财政资金待拨付使用，政府财力较去年相对充裕。2024年实际狭义赤字率与去年基本持平，广义赤字率提升。自2015年以来，一般公共预算的收支差额除了依靠狭义赤字弥补之外，财政二、三本账的调入资金也是主要来源之一，其中主要包括央行以及国有企业向财政的上缴利润。我们测算2024年调入资金规模在2万亿左右（23年约为1.8万亿），考虑调入资金后实际赤字率为4.55%，与2023年的4.58%基本持平。此外，今年新增的3.9万亿专项债和1万亿特别国债，加上去年新增万亿国债中有8000亿是在2024年实际使用，2024年实际使用的广义赤字率为8.76%，略高于去年的8.39%。由于专项债和特别国债均纳入政府性基金预算管理，假设今年政府性基金收入与去年持平，我们预计今年预算草案中政府性基金支出增速大致在18%左右，较去年的-8.4%大幅提升。考虑价格因素今年实际赤字率或高于3%。按照今年财政拟安排的4.06万亿赤字总规模以及3%的赤字率目标可以推算出2024年的名义GDP规模大致为135.3万亿，在5%实际GDP增速目标下，对应2024年的GDP平减指数为2.36%，这一物价增速显著高于2023年的-1.04%，也高于我们测算的2024年平减指数（0.5%）。在2024年的物价水平没有大幅超预期增长的基础上，实际实现的名义GDP或低于赤字率倒算出来的水平，这也意味着今年实际的赤字率或是高于3%的。超长期特别国债显著体现财政逆周期扩张的政策意图。政府工作报告提出：从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设。我们认为超长期特别国债具有部分替代专项债进行政府投融资的实际功能，与此同时在债务融资管理上由中央统筹，能够有效加强对债务风险的管控、缓解地方债务压力、降低债务融资成本。未来五年，超长期特别国债将是兼顾经济高质量发展和财政可持续的重要政策工具，也是财政逆周期发力的重要意图体现，具有较强的信号意义。可以类比的政策是1998-2000年连续三年的新增建设国债和2008年的“四万亿”计划，其均对预期改善和物价回升起到了积极作用。风险提示1.政策理解不到位的风险2.财政政策不及预期的风险3.经济超预期下行的风险4.政府债券违约超预期的风险', 'content': 'Core point of view: The second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress opened on March 5. According to the government work report, the fiscal budget deficit rate in 2024 is 3%, the new special bond quota is 3.9 trillion yuan, and 10,000 yuan is planned to be issued at the same time. billion in super long-term special treasury bonds. Intuitively, the 3% deficit rate may be interpreted by the market as relatively restrained fiscal efforts, but we believe that the 3% target deficit rate reflects more of the fiscal constraints on government administrative expenditures rather than the tightening of policy efforts. In fact, after taking into account price level factors, the actual deficit rate in 2024 may be slightly higher than 3%, and the general government deficit rate after taking into account special bonds and special treasury bonds is also higher than last year. From this, the growth rate of government fund expenditures this year can be calculated. The scale will be significantly higher than last year. The fiscal intensity of the “moderate boost” is not weaker than last year. The significance of the 3% deficit rate lies in fiscal discipline and does not represent the policy\\'s tightening intentions. First of all, it needs to be made clear that the target deficit rate over the years cannot fully represent the intensity of fiscal expansion. The narrow deficit rate of the general public budget mainly reflects the revenue and expenditure gap of the government\\'s general affairs, and only includes part of the government investment. On the basis that the Central Economic Work Conference and the National Fiscal Work Conference proposed that \"the government must adapt to tight times\", we believe that the main significance of adhering to the 3% red line is to control the blind expansion of government public expenditures. In addition, due to the continued rebound in fiscal revenue after the epidemic and the new national debt last year, the pressure on one-account fiscal expenditures has been significantly eased this year, and the corresponding demand for general government debt financing has also decreased. Judging from the current balance of fiscal deposits, after a significant increase in October last year, the balance of fiscal deposits as of January this year is still 6.65 trillion, which is significantly higher than the same period in previous years. This shows that the current fiscal funds are relatively abundant, and there is a certain amount of liquidity to be released. Based on the average of previous years (about 5.4 trillion), there are currently about 1.25 trillion fiscal funds to be allocated and used, and the government\\'s financial resources are relatively abundant compared with last year. The actual narrow deficit rate in 2024 will be basically the same as last year, while the broad deficit rate will increase. Since 2015, in addition to relying on narrow deficits to make up for the balance of revenue and expenditure of the general public budget, funds transferred from the second and third fiscal accounts are also one of the main sources, which mainly include profits handed over to the fiscal by the central bank and state-owned enterprises. We estimate that the scale of transferred funds in 2024 will be around 2 trillion (about 1.8 trillion in 2023). After considering the transferred funds, the actual deficit rate will be 4.55%, which is basically the same as 4.58% in 2023. In addition, this year\\'s new 3.9 trillion special bonds and 1 trillion special treasury bonds, plus 800 billion of last year\\'s new trillions of treasury bonds, will be actually used in 2024. The actual broad deficit rate in 2024 will be 8.76%, slightly This is higher than last year\\'s 8.39%. Since both special bonds and special treasury bonds are included in the budget management of government funds, assuming that the revenue of government funds this year is the same as last year, we expect the growth rate of government fund expenditures in this year\\'s budget draft to be roughly around 18%, a significant increase from last year\\'s -8.4% . Taking into account price factors, the actual deficit rate this year may be higher than 3%. Based on the total deficit of 4.06 trillion planned for this year\\'s fiscal year and the deficit rate target of 3%, it can be calculated that the nominal GDP size in 2024 is roughly 135.3 trillion. Under the 5% real GDP growth target, corresponding to the average GDP in 2024. The deflator is 2.36%. This price growth rate is significantly higher than the -1.04% in 2023, and also higher than the deflator we calculated in 2024 (0.5%). On the basis that the price level in 2024 does not increase significantly beyond expectations, the actual nominal GDP may be lower than the level calculated back from the deficit rate, which also means that the actual deficit rate this year may be higher than 3%. Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds clearly reflect the policy intention of fiscal countercyclical expansion. The government work report proposed that starting from this year, it plans to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years to be used for the implementation of major national strategies and the construction of security capabilities in key areas. We believe that ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have the practical function of partially replacing special bonds for government investment and financing. At the same time, debt financing management is coordinated by the central government, which can effectively strengthen the management and control of debt risks, alleviate local debt pressure, and reduce debt financing costs. In the next five years, ultra-long-term special government bonds will be an important policy tool that takes into account high-quality economic development and fiscal sustainability. They are also an important manifestation of fiscal countercyclical efforts and have strong signaling significance. Comparable policies are the three consecutive years of new construction national debt from 1998 to 2000 and the \"four trillion\" plan in 2008, both of which played a positive role in improving expectations and rising prices. Risk warning 1. The risk of insufficient policy understanding 2. The risk of fiscal policy falling short of expectations 3. The risk of an unexpected economic downturn 4. The risk of government bond defaults exceeding expectations', 'authorid': UUID('bd8b59b5-0702-5498-bd36-917d7e164bee'), 'sentimentScore': -0.049166321754455566, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'LGMUK8TL26LI3MN3GDOQGQ6BRJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:19 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'LGMUK8TL26LI3MN3GDOQGQ6BRJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ed97b97a-1d8f-57b9-8625-4ea8bfd99c35'), 'title': 'Profitability is vulnerable to the external environment: handover coverage', 'author': 'Guo Xiangyu', 'orgName': '海通国际证券集团有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001968', 'orgSName': '海通国际', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYKP9/hPqC1GH8iU/18dmIgo=', 'researcher': '郭翔宇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000459231'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYKP9/hPqC1GH8iU/18dmIgo=', 'site': 'Haitong International Securities Group Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '海通国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625512452_1.pdf?1709653301000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625512452_1.pdf?1709653301000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Profitability is vulnerable to the external environment: handover coverage', 'originalAuthor': '郭翔宇', 'originalContent': '事件我们交接覆盖了东曹，维持其“中性”评级，并将目标价提升至2,100日元。公司FY3/23前三季度销售收入同比增长5.9%，达7,479亿日元，营业利润同比增长1.2%，达596亿日元。在其FY3/24业绩指引中，公司预计全年销售收入同比下降2.3%至10,400亿日元，营业利润上升15.3%至860亿日元。点评东曹公司成立于1935年，是一家多元化的化工企业，其战略重点集中在四个关键业务领域：石油化工、氯碱、功能性化学品和工程相关。前两个业务领域主要生产标准化工产品，在FY3/24前三个季度的总销售额中占54%。然而，尽管销售额可观，这些领域的营业利润却仅占19%，这表明这些领域容易受到外部因素的影响，而且公司对其盈利能力的控制稍显薄弱。值得注意的是功能性产品和工程相关业务。FY3/24功能性产品的销售额占总销售额的26%，营业利润则占到了令人印象深刻的52%。东曹功能性化学品的突出特点是提供高附加值产品，如半导体制造中至关重要的溅射靶材。作为溅射靶材领域的领军企业之一，东曹拥有20%的全球市场份额。工程相关是东曹产品组合的重要组成部分，致力于为半导体行业提供半导体生产所需的纯净水解决方案。这项服务由东曹的上市子公司Organo（6368JP）提供。与石油化工和氯碱业务相比，功能性化学品和工程相关业务的技术壁垒要高得多，公司在此二领域的盈利能力更强。估值我们预计公司FY3/24-FY3/26财年的每股收益为177日元、221日元和244日元。根据我们的现金流折现模型，我们将公司目标价提升至2,100日元，对应FY3/268.6倍市盈率。我们维持其“中性”评级。风险主要的上行风险为：1）石化产品和氯碱产品价格大幅上涨。主要的下行风险是：1）来自半导体行业的需求低于预期。', 'content': 'We transitioned coverage of Tosoh into the event, maintaining its \"neutral\" rating and raising the target price to 2,100 yen. The company\\'s sales revenue in the first three quarters of FY3/23 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 747.9 billion yen, and operating profit increased by 1.2% year-on-year to 59.6 billion yen. In its FY3/24 performance guidance, the company expects full-year sales revenue to fall 2.3% year-on-year to 1,040 billion yen, and operating profit to rise 15.3% to 86 billion yen. Comments: Founded in 1935, Tosoh Corporation is a diversified chemical company with strategic focus on four key business areas: petrochemicals, chlor-alkali, functional chemicals and engineering related. The first two business areas mainly produce standard chemical products and accounted for 54% of total sales in the first three quarters of FY3/24. However, despite significant sales, these areas accounted for only 19% of operating profit, suggesting that these areas are susceptible to external factors and that the company has slightly less control over its profitability. Notable are functional products and engineering-related businesses. Sales of functional products accounted for 26% of total sales in FY3/24, and operating profit accounted for an impressive 52%. Tosoh Functional Chemicals\\' outstanding feature is the provision of high value-added products such as sputtering targets that are crucial in semiconductor manufacturing. As one of the leading companies in the field of sputtering targets, Tosoh has a 20% global market share. Engineering related products are an important part of Tosoh\\'s product portfolio and are committed to providing the semiconductor industry with pure water solutions required for semiconductor production. This service is provided by Tosoh\\'s listed subsidiary Organo (6368JP). Compared with the petrochemical and chlor-alkali businesses, the technical barriers to functional chemicals and engineering-related businesses are much higher, and the company has stronger profitability in these two areas. Valuation We estimate the company\\'s earnings per share for the fiscal years FY3/24-FY3/26 to be 177 yen, 221 yen and 244 yen. Based on our discounted cash flow model, we raised the company\\'s target price to 2,100 yen, corresponding to a FY3/268.6 times P/E ratio. We maintain its \"Neutral\" rating. Risks The main upside risks are: 1) Sharp increases in the prices of petrochemical products and chlor-alkali products. The main downside risks are: 1) Lower than expected demand from the semiconductor industry.', 'authorid': UUID('6979c6b7-71e2-5bd7-ba6c-c09150b5afc5'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8462537974119186, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'IQ6GL44H3V94HBVPS99GN502QNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:22 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'IQ6GL44H3V94HBVPS99GN502QNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0f4cb90a-a643-5335-a32a-eb3817a8cffe'), 'title': 'Macro and major asset class weekly report: a new question', 'author': 'Yang Weiqiu, Meng Zijun', 'orgName': '国元证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001043', 'orgSName': '国元证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYLwPYybHXvC8oi6tXFL4dpI=', 'researcher': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000176619', '11000337831'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYLwPYybHXvC8oi6tXFL4dpI=', 'site': 'Guoyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国元证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625510061_1.pdf?1709650343000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625510061_1.pdf?1709650343000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro and major asset class weekly report: a new question', 'originalAuthor': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'originalContent': '报告要点：本周关注——整体经济仍可大致看作走平。2月PMI的下滑有一定的春节因素在，而且，商品周期也同时企稳，比如PMI中的购进价格映射的PPI在-2.8%左右。地产可以稍加关注，30个大中城市商品房成交面积在2月日均成交14万平（同比降65%），是2020年2月以来的最低值。即使地产在常态负增长状态，这种增速上的突然下跌也值得思虑，一个可能是：如果流动性梗阻降低了M2，实体资金链的问题可能会发酵地产问题，比如，1月法拍房套数同比增长48%，这个链条虽然长，但也现实。本质上，流动性梗阻问题还是需要化解，区域流动性之间的高墙并不坚固，如果实体流动性大体在收缩状态，不可能其中有某个局部区域的流动性可以幸免于难，如果当前的地产可以用这个大势解释，那说明现在的金融问题已经传导到了实体比较深的层面。这个现象若无化解，资产风格会一直在risk-off状态内，当然，上周的权益市场上涨以及周五债券市场的下跌，只能归于市场交易层面的心态问题造成的短时波动。从海外成熟经济体的历史经验来看，当流动性梗阻发生时，央行的首要举措都是快速大幅度地下调基准利率，次贷危机后的美国、欧债危机后的欧元区、上世纪90年代的日本，皆是如此，我们接下来能否执行非常规宽松政策，将是一个破局的重点。投资建议——宏观经济：虽然金融周期至此，但目前内溢的外部流动性能够基本稳住库存周期，这导致经济基本面至少是平的，但需要时时警惕流动性梗阻的问题开始对实体产生实质性拖累。资产配置：如果流动性梗阻还在，那risk-off将是一个超出周期理解范畴的趋势。利率债：在宽信用出现之前，建议维持高杠杆、长久期，如果对行情反转非常警惕的话，可以适度注重一下持仓的流动性问题，把部分30Y超长期券换仓到10Y长期券就好，过度收缩久期并无必要。权益市场：近期股市的上涨说明投资者还是有些信心的，这些信心可能源于对即将召开的两会的政策预期。历史经验来看，历次股市上涨，都需要流动性（狭义社融）或者经济名义增速至少其一的好转。信用市场：在风控允许的范围内，可以尽可能下潜城投信用，目前看，在极端的配置图景下，信用利差有历史性新低的可能；但是，地产信用还要等等，关注万科非标债延期事件的后续进展。商品市场：从绝对价格的角度，当前的商品价格是偏高的，但从周期意义上说，商品可能即将出现一个上行的波段，此中尤其可以关注原油价格的修复。风险提示：宏观政策落地不及预期等', 'content': \"Report Highlights: Focus on this week - the overall economy can still be seen as broadly flat. The decline in PMI in February was partly due to the Spring Festival. Moreover, the commodity cycle also stabilized. For example, the PPI reflected by the purchase price in PMI was around -2.8%. You can pay more attention to real estate. The average daily transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bcommercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities in February was 140,000 square meters (a year-on-year decrease of 65%), which was the lowest value since February 2020. Even if real estate is in a state of normal negative growth, this sudden drop in growth is worthy of consideration. One possibility is: if liquidity obstruction reduces M2, problems in the physical capital chain may ferment real estate problems. For example, the number of foreclosures in January A year-on-year increase of 48%. Although this chain is long, it is also realistic. Essentially, the problem of liquidity obstruction still needs to be resolved. The high walls between regional liquidity are not strong. If the physical liquidity is generally in a state of contraction, it is impossible for a certain local area of \\u200b\\u200bliquidity to survive. If the current The real estate industry can be explained by this general trend, which shows that the current financial problems have been transmitted to a deeper level of entities. If this phenomenon is not resolved, asset styles will remain in a risk-off state. Of course, last week's rise in the equity market and Friday's drop in the bond market can only be attributed to short-term fluctuations caused by psychological issues at the market transaction level. Judging from the historical experience of overseas mature economies, when liquidity obstruction occurs, the central bank's first action is to quickly and significantly lower the benchmark interest rate. This was the case in the United States after the subprime mortgage crisis, the Eurozone after the European debt crisis, and the Eurozone after the European debt crisis in the 1990s. This is the case for Japan in the 1990s. Whether we can implement unconventional easing policies in the future will be a key point to break the situation. Investment advice - Macroeconomics: Although the financial cycle has reached this point, the current internal overflow of external liquidity can basically stabilize the inventory cycle. This results in the economic fundamentals being at least flat, but it is necessary to always be vigilant about the problem of liquidity obstruction that has begun to affect entities. Substantial drag. Asset allocation: If liquidity obstruction persists, risk-off will be a trend beyond the scope of cycle understanding. Interest rate bonds: Before the emergence of credit easing, it is recommended to maintain high leverage and long term. If you are very wary of market reversal, you can pay appropriate attention to the liquidity issue of your positions and just swap some 30Y ultra-long-term bonds into 10Y long-term bonds. , excessive contraction of duration is not necessary. Equity market: The recent rise in the stock market shows that investors still have some confidence, which may stem from policy expectations for the upcoming two sessions. Judging from historical experience, every stock market rise requires an improvement in at least one of liquidity (social financing in a narrow sense) or nominal economic growth. Credit market: Within the scope of risk control, you can dive into urban investment credit as much as possible. At present, under the extreme allocation scenario, credit spreads may reach a historic low; however, real estate credit has to wait and pay attention. Follow-up progress of Vanke’s non-standard bond extension event. Commodity market: From an absolute price perspective, current commodity prices are on the high side, but from a cyclical perspective, commodities may be about to experience an upward trend, in which we can especially pay attention to the recovery of crude oil prices. Risk warning: The implementation of macro policies falls short of expectations, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('06a6231a-b667-541e-b1fd-3c96f32864dc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8297738209366798, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TQIG4MB23DMLBK4LQL3VLDNG6VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:24 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TQIG4MB23DMLBK4LQL3VLDNG6VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('28c69b67-67d3-56b0-8396-d8424a95dc3f'), 'title': 'No. 71 of the series \"Seeing the Little Things\": How does extreme weather affect the pace of recovery?', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Zhang Yunjie, Ma Jieying', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYGAf7+KB9Ljx0kNqnIbDHqI=', 'researcher': '赵伟,张云杰,马洁莹', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000369443', '11000342031'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYGAf7+KB9Ljx0kNqnIbDHqI=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625510031_1.pdf?1709652918000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625510031_1.pdf?1709652918000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'No. 71 of the series \"Seeing the Little Things\": How does extreme weather affect the pace of recovery?', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,张云杰,马洁莹', 'originalContent': '2月��下旬，节后复工、复产遭遇冻雨等极端天气，中东部地区明显受灾。经济运行、物价形势或受到哪些影响？一问：本轮冻雨，影响范围与持续时间？中东部地区明显受灾，3月天气或将恢复常态2月中下旬，大部地区气温较常年同期明显偏低，全国多地相继出现冻雨等极端天气。2月17日以来，中东部地区受寒潮影响范围较大，郑州、合肥、长沙等中部城市，最低温度单日最大降幅在7-8摄氏度之间，平均低温较过去4年同期下降1.5-3摄氏度。低温压制下，多地出现大范围低温雨雪冰冻，部分地区甚至出现冻雨等极端天气。区域上，本轮冻雨集中在中东部地区，长三角等地的极端天气较为反常。经验上，冻雨多发生在山地和湖区、淮南多于淮北，贵州、湖南等地较为多见。2024年初冻雨横跨东中西部地区的数十个省份，较为少见地出现在山东南部、安徽北部等地势平坦地区，长三角区域更是极为罕见地出现冻雨、冰粒等复杂降水相态。本轮极端天气或即将结束，3月上旬中东部地区或明显升温，不再具备冻雨发生条件。冻雨的发生条件较为苛刻，仅当有降水出现且地面温度低于零摄氏度等条件同时具备时，才可能形成。气象监测数据显示，全国大范围雨雪天气已基本结束，3月上旬中东部地区或迎来升温，4日起长沙、合肥等代表性城市气温或基本回归去年同期水平。二问：经济运行，或遭遇哪些挑战？冻雨影响人流出行，扰动节后复工、复产节奏以冻雨为代表的低温冷冻极端天气，所造成的直接经济损失通常较小。2012年以来，我国气象灾害平均每年造成的直接经济损失在3500亿元左右、占GDP比重基本低于0.5%。各类气象灾害中，冻雨、雪灾等低温冷害对经济影响通常较低，农作物受灾面积占比仅有5.8%，明显低于旱灾、暴雨洪涝、风雹的40.8%、31.4%、13.4%。但冻雨对人流出行影响较大，本轮冻雨恰逢节后复工、复产，或对经济复苏节奏形成“间接”扰动。节后复工以来13日，全社会跨区人流明显回落，分别较2023、2019年同期下滑1.6、4.8个百分点；广东、湖南、浙江等中东部劳务大省，人流净迁入明显不及去年同期；建筑业受劳务人口迁移影响较大，华东地区粉磨、沥青开工率表现平淡。此外，冻雨或引发电力供应故障，进而对工业运行节奏产生影响。2013、2016年初，湖南省曾发生两次冻雨天气，期间部分地区工业增加值、工业用电量同比均较上年末明显回落。分行业看，电燃水、上游加工制造行业能耗较高，受电力故障的影响相对更大。2024年春节后，高炉开工率等上游工业生产指标，走势仍相对偏弱。三问：对物价扰动，影响几何？短期脉冲、对CPI弹性影响偏弱本轮低温冻雨恰逢油菜等蔬果处于现蕾至抽薹期、易受冻害，也易造成农产品运输受阻等。安徽中南部、江苏中部、湖北大部等地油菜将遭受轻至中度低温冻害；阴雨天气将加重长江中下游部分地区土壤过湿状况，不利于回温后油菜、露地蔬菜等恢复生长。此外，寒潮天气下，农作物运输受阻，运价或有所抬升、推升果蔬成本。高频数据显示，蒜薹等蔬果价格已有边际抬升、持续性还待进一步跟踪。供给充足下，鲜菜等超季节性降价一度对CPI食品端有明显拖累、例如，1月鲜菜鲜果合计影响CPI下降约0.3个百分点。低温寒潮对蔬果供给阶段性冲击、叠加运输抬升等，以蒜薹为代表的农产品价格自2月以来边际上涨至8.7元/500克，高于季节性水平。低温冻害对蔬果价格影响更多为短期脉冲作用、对CPI影响相对较弱，后续可重点关注生猪产能去化节奏等。经验显示，低温等影响蔬菜生长导致CPI环比阶段性较正常年份高0.1-0.2个百分点；考虑到蔬果等权重占比相对较低，对CPI影响弹性或相对有限。CPI节奏或更多受猪价等弹性较大的分项影响，后续可密切生猪产能去化节奏等。风险提示经济复苏不及预期，政策落地效果不及预期。', 'content': 'In mid-to-late February, the resumption of work and production after the holidays encountered extreme weather such as freezing rain, and the central and eastern regions were obviously affected. How will the economic operation and price situation be affected? Question: What is the scope and duration of this round of freezing rain? The central and eastern regions were obviously affected by the disaster, and the weather may return to normal in March. In mid-to-late February, the temperature in most areas was significantly lower than the same period in normal years, and extreme weather such as freezing rain occurred in many places across the country. Since February 17, the central and eastern regions have been largely affected by the cold wave. In central cities such as Zhengzhou, Hefei, and Changsha, the maximum single-day drop in minimum temperature has been between 7 and 8 degrees Celsius, and the average low temperature has dropped by 1.5 to 3 degrees Celsius compared with the same period in the past four years. degrees Celsius. Under the suppression of low temperatures, widespread low-temperature rain, snow, and ice occurred in many places, and extreme weather such as freezing rain even occurred in some areas. Regionally, this round of freezing rain is concentrated in the central and eastern regions, and the extreme weather in the Yangtze River Delta and other places is relatively abnormal. Experience shows that freezing rain occurs more often in mountainous areas and lake areas, more in Huainan than in Huaibei, and is more common in Guizhou, Hunan and other places. In early 2024, freezing rain spread across dozens of provinces in the eastern, central and western regions. It rarely appeared in flat areas such as southern Shandong and northern Anhui. In the Yangtze River Delta region, complex precipitation phases such as freezing rain and ice particles were extremely rare. This round of extreme weather may be coming to an end. The central and eastern regions may heat up significantly in early March, and conditions for freezing rain will no longer exist. The conditions for the occurrence of freezing rain are relatively harsh. It can only form when there is precipitation and the ground temperature is below zero degrees Celsius. Meteorological monitoring data shows that widespread rain and snow weather across the country has basically ended. The central and eastern regions may see a rise in temperature in early March. From the 4th, temperatures in representative cities such as Changsha and Hefei may basically return to the same period last year. Second question: What challenges will the economy encounter? Freezing rain affects the flow of people and disrupts the pace of resumption of work and production after the holidays. Extreme low-temperature and freezing weather, represented by freezing rain, usually causes relatively small direct economic losses. Since 2012, the average annual direct economic loss caused by meteorological disasters in my country has been around 350 billion yuan, accounting for basically less than 0.5% of GDP. Among various types of meteorological disasters, low-temperature damage such as freezing rain and snowstorms usually have a low impact on the economy. The affected area of \\u200b\\u200bcrops accounts for only 5.8%, which is significantly lower than the 40.8%, 31.4%, and 13.4% of drought, heavy rain, flood, and hail. However, freezing rain has a greater impact on the flow of people. This round of freezing rain coincides with the resumption of work and production after the holidays, which may cause \"indirect\" disturbance to the pace of economic recovery. In the 13 days since the resumption of work after the holiday, the cross-regional flow of people across society has dropped significantly, down 1.6 and 4.8 percentage points respectively compared with the same periods in 2023 and 2019; in Guangdong, Hunan, Zhejiang and other central and eastern labor-producing provinces, the net flow of people has been significantly lower than the same period last year; The construction industry is greatly affected by labor migration, and the operating rates of grinding and asphalt in East China are flat. In addition, freezing rain may cause power supply failures, thereby affecting the rhythm of industrial operations. In 2013 and early 2016, there were two freezing rain weather events in Hunan Province. During this period, the industrial added value and industrial electricity consumption in some areas dropped significantly compared with the end of the previous year. Looking at different industries, the electricity, water, and upstream processing and manufacturing industries have higher energy consumption and are relatively more affected by power failures. After the Spring Festival in 2024, the trend of upstream industrial production indicators such as blast furnace operating rate will still be relatively weak. Third question: What is the impact of price disturbances? Short-term pulse, weak impact on CPI elasticity. This round of low-temperature freezing rain coincides with the budding to bolting stage of vegetables and fruits such as rapeseed, and is susceptible to freezing damage, and can also easily cause obstacles to the transportation of agricultural products. Rapeseed in central and southern Anhui, central Jiangsu, and most of Hubei will suffer mild to moderate low-temperature freeze damage; rainy weather will aggravate the over-humidity of the soil in some areas of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, which is not conducive to the recovery of rape and open-field vegetables after the temperature returns. In addition, under cold wave weather, the transportation of crops is blocked, and freight rates may rise, pushing up the cost of fruits and vegetables. High-frequency data shows that the prices of vegetables and fruits such as garlic sprouts have increased marginally, and the sustainability needs to be further tracked. With sufficient supply, super-seasonal price cuts such as fresh vegetables once had a significant drag on the food side of CPI. For example, in January, the total impact of fresh vegetables and fruits on the CPI fell by about 0.3 percentage points. Due to the periodic impact of low temperature and cold wave on the supply of fruits and vegetables, coupled with the increase in transportation, the price of agricultural products represented by garlic sprouts has risen marginally to 8.7 yuan/500 grams since February, which is higher than the seasonal level. The impact of low-temperature freezing damage on vegetable and fruit prices is more of a short-term pulse effect, and the impact on CPI is relatively weak. In the future, we can focus on the pace of pig production capacity depletion, etc. Experience shows that low temperature and other factors affecting the growth of vegetables cause the CPI to be 0.1-0.2 percentage points higher than in normal years. Considering that the weight of fruits and vegetables is relatively low, the elasticity of the impact on CPI may be relatively limited. The pace of CPI may be more affected by highly elastic components such as pig prices, and the pace of pig production capacity reduction can be closely followed in the future. Risks suggest that the economic recovery is not as good as expected and the effect of policy implementation is not as good as expected.', 'authorid': UUID('fd4a9029-aaf0-5d12-a76a-16c910288eb6'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8676898926496506, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'DR8TPS2FGDO1DPH3N42DG5JA67VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:27 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'DR8TPS2FGDO1DPH3N42DG5JA67VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('618b192e-393d-5baa-9b36-5b3fac47be92'), 'title': 'Macro Comment: The scientific and technological content of the government work report', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYAZEzjxfK7bwZbVKphcXibk=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYAZEzjxfK7bwZbVKphcXibk=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625507852_1.pdf?1709649948000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625507852_1.pdf?1709649948000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: The scientific and technological content of the government work report', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '今年的政府工作报告最明显的变化就是科技含量提高了，而总量则更加强调“持久战”。与去年12月的中央经济工作会议相比，今天政府工作报告明确要求要“紧紧抓住主要矛盾”，无疑就是“新质生产力”（也就是科技），除了“大力”、“加速”的措辞，进一步把“新质生产力”的重要助推“科教兴国”（人才要素）放在了第二位，而扩大内需的内容则下降至第三，以财政为代表的总量政策则更加强调持续发力，而非短期的强刺激。科技方面，什么最“急”？行业厚度和人才。除了中央经济工作会议提及的“生物制造、商业航天、低空经济、量子和生命科学”外，智能网联新能源车、新兴氢能、新材料和创新药急需巩固和加快发展。而以人工智能为代表的数字经济内容大幅增加，数字基础设施和算力体系可能成为重要抓手。除此之外，人才的因素越来越受到关注，科教兴国下构建“教育-科研-人才”的支持体系。总量方面，稳还是最重要的，而且是持续的“稳”。财政政策开始着眼于未来几年，货币政策新增了稳定资本市场的功能，地产方面，依旧以“平稳健康发展”和加大保障性住房建设为主线。产业政策：新质生产力成为2024年经济社会发展的关键词。对比起去年的政府工作报告，今年产业政策不仅重要性被抬升、而且相关表述也更多了。两会上“推进现代化产业体系建设”这一表述与中央经济工作会议一脉相连，不过对比起中央经济工作会议，政府工作报告中又多了一些新的产业领域，包括智能网联新能源汽车、新兴氢能、新材料、创新药。新质生产力的“含金量”十足。其实“新质生产力”这一名词并不陌生——自去年9月总书记在黑龙江考察时首次提及以后，它就在各大“重磅”会议里频频出现。同时春节前后各省省委书记也纷纷出面、为新质生产力“站台”。对比起中央经济工作会议，目前对“建设现代化产业体系”以及“发展新质生产力”的表述，新增了“大力”和“加快”二词，产业政策的重要性进一步凸显。除此之外，科教兴国重要性的提升，也是加快发展新质生产力的“潜台词”。在2024年政府工作报告中，科教兴国可谓是最大的“黑马”——从近年会议重点工作中并未提及，到此次直接跃升至重点工作中排序第二的位置。其实科教兴国与排序第一的新质生产力也是“珠联璧合”的关系，这是因为新质生产力的发展离不开人才的投入，科教兴国战略正是助推新质生产力发展的最好“引擎”。新质生产力有何内涵？从内部看，作为新质生产力发展载体的战略性新兴产业和未来产业可以带来经济发展质量和效率的深层次变革，是实现经济高质量发展的一大“捷径”。从外部看，在海外AI加速发展、主要发达经济体加大新兴产业补贴力度的背景下，我国产业政策加码及切实落地的紧迫性明显提升。总量方面，财政政策比起“速决战”，更偏好“持久战”。虽然2024年目标财政赤字率并未突破3%“红线”，但两会上正式“官宣”超长期特别国债的发行、以及提高地方政府专项债的拟发行规模，都意味着积极财政政策的基调不变。超长期特别国债的出台意味着未来几年财政的发力更偏“循序渐进”式、而非“拔苗助长”式。发行不计入赤字的超长期特别国债，言外之意可能是逐步实现去土地财政化，从而真正实现经济增长引擎转型的高质量发展决心。货币政策除了稳增长、稳价格，今年还新添了稳市场。这意味着央行今年在市场预期方面也将承担重要职责，做好长短兼顾：短期方面可通过发挥货币政策“排头兵”的作用，譬如年初的大幅降准稳市场预期；长期方面或暗示《金融稳定法》的加速推进及平准基金的筹备，健全维护市场稳定的长效机制。从实际利率、地产表现与外部压力来看，我们预计今年的降息降准空间应不低于去年，节奏上可能要到第二季度中后段，但面临后续再通胀、经济与市场的变盘时，也要留意货币政策稳市场的“前置”落地与平准基金的“择时”入市可能。地产更加聚焦“风险”与“落实”。一是相比去年，保障房建设从工作安排中的民生领域前提至防风险领域，提升了保障房建设作为地产防风险一环的重要性；二是随着“白名单”的持续扩容与PSL等资金支持落地，年初以来地产政策的显著感受是“做的”比“说的”多，融资机制效率良好，反映当前政策可能更加注重落实，资金到位后的地产开工施工最快有望在二季度企稳。风险提示：政策出台节奏及项目落地放缓导致经济复苏偏慢；海外经济体提前显著进入衰退，国内出口超预期萎缩。', 'content': 'The most obvious change in this year\\'s government work report is that the scientific and technological content has increased, while the overall report places more emphasis on \"protracted war.\" Compared with the Central Economic Work Conference in December last year, today’s government work report clearly requires that we must “grasp the main contradiction”, which is undoubtedly “new productive forces” (that is, science and technology). In addition to “vigorous” and “accelerated” The wording further places \"rejuvenating the country through science and education\" (talent elements), an important boost of \"new productive forces\", in the second place, while the content of expanding domestic demand drops to the third place, and the overall policy represented by finance puts more emphasis on Continuous efforts, rather than short-term strong stimulation. In terms of technology, what is most “urgent”? Industry thickness and talent. In addition to \"biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, quantum and life sciences\" mentioned at the Central Economic Work Conference, there is an urgent need to consolidate and accelerate the development of intelligent networked new energy vehicles, emerging hydrogen energy, new materials and innovative drugs. The content of the digital economy represented by artificial intelligence has increased significantly, and digital infrastructure and computing power systems may become important starting points. In addition, the factor of talent has attracted more and more attention, and a support system of \"education-scientific research-talent\" has been established under the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education. In terms of total volume, stability is still the most important, and it is sustained \"stability\". Fiscal policy has begun to focus on the next few years, and monetary policy has added the function of stabilizing the capital market. In terms of real estate, it still focuses on \"stable and healthy development\" and increasing the construction of affordable housing. Industrial policy: New productivity has become the key word for economic and social development in 2024. Compared with last year\\'s government work report, this year\\'s industrial policy has not only been elevated in importance, but also has more relevant statements. The expression \"promoting the construction of a modern industrial system\" at the two sessions is closely related to the Central Economic Work Conference. However, compared with the Central Economic Work Conference, the government work report includes some new industrial fields, including intelligent network-connected new energy vehicles, Emerging hydrogen energy, new materials, innovative drugs. New productivity is full of “gold content”. In fact, the term \"new quality productivity\" is not unfamiliar - since the general secretary first mentioned it during his inspection in Heilongjiang in September last year, it has appeared frequently in major \"big\" meetings. At the same time, before and after the Spring Festival, provincial party committee secretaries from various provinces also came forward one after another to \"stand out\" for new quality productivity. Compared with the Central Economic Work Conference, the current expressions of \"building a modern industrial system\" and \"developing new productive forces\" have added the words \"vigorously\" and \"accelerate\", further highlighting the importance of industrial policy. In addition, the increased importance of rejuvenating the country through science and education is also the \"subtext\" for accelerating the development of new productive forces. In the 2024 government work report, rejuvenating the country through science and education can be said to be the biggest \"dark horse\" - it has not been mentioned in the key tasks of the conference in recent years, but this time it has jumped directly to the second position in the key tasks. In fact, the relationship between rejuvenating the country through science and education and the first-ranked new productivity is also a perfect match. This is because the development of new productivity cannot be separated from the investment of talents. The strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education is the best \"engine\" to boost the development of new productivity. . What is the connotation of new quality productivity? From an internal perspective, strategic emerging industries and future industries, which are the carriers of the development of new productive forces, can bring about profound changes in the quality and efficiency of economic development and are a \"shortcut\" to achieving high-quality economic development. From an external perspective, in the context of the accelerated development of overseas AI and the increase in subsidies for emerging industries in major developed economies, the urgency of increasing my country\\'s industrial policies and implementing them has increased significantly. In terms of total volume, fiscal policy prefers a “protracted war” to a “quick and decisive war”. Although the target fiscal deficit rate in 2024 has not exceeded the \"red line\" of 3%, the official \"official announcement\" of the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds at the two sessions and the increase in the planned issuance scale of local government special bonds all imply the tone of a proactive fiscal policy constant. The introduction of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds means that fiscal efforts in the next few years will be more \"step-by-step\" rather than \"reinforcement\". The implication of the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds that are not included in the deficit may be the determination to gradually realize the de-land fiscalization and truly realize the high-quality development determination of transforming the economic growth engine. In addition to stabilizing growth and prices, monetary policy has also added market stabilization this year. This means that the central bank will also assume important responsibilities in terms of market expectations this year and take into account both the long and short term: in the short term, it can play the role of \"vanguard\" of monetary policy, such as a sharp cut in reserve requirements at the beginning of the year to stabilize market expectations; in the long term, it may hint at the \"Financial Stability\" Accelerate the advancement of the Law and prepare for the stabilization fund, and improve the long-term mechanism to maintain market stability. From the perspective of real interest rates, real estate performance and external pressure, we expect that the room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts this year should be no less than last year, and the pace may not be until the middle or late second quarter. However, in the face of subsequent reflation, economic and market changes At the same time, we should also pay attention to the \"pre-emptive\" implementation of monetary policy to stabilize the market and the \"timed\" entry of stabilization funds into the market. Real estate focuses more on “risk” and “implementation”. First, compared with last year, the construction of affordable housing has shifted from the people\\'s livelihood field in work arrangements to the field of risk prevention, which has enhanced the importance of affordable housing construction as a part of real estate risk prevention; second, with the continued expansion of the \"white list\" and PSL Waiting for the financial support to be implemented, the obvious feeling of real estate policy since the beginning of the year is that there is more \"done\" than \"said\", and the efficiency of the financing mechanism is good, reflecting that the current policy may pay more attention to implementation. After the funds are in place, real estate construction is expected to start as soon as the second quarter. stabilize. Risk warning: The slowdown in the pace of policy introduction and project implementation has led to a slow economic recovery; overseas economies have entered recession significantly ahead of schedule, and domestic exports have shrunk more than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': 0.3637785315513611, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'M31RPGQOAPQDLB0BOM6J1N0IVFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:30 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'M31RPGQOAPQDLB0BOM6J1N0IVFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('199441c0-e82f-5b63-9310-98a93e16fee5'), 'title': 'Macro Financial Information Weekly Report', 'author': '', 'orgName': '国贸期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80004615', 'orgSName': '国贸期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYKaFQU9SSLzgKkp2/ctM5OI=', 'researcher': '', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': '', 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYKaFQU9SSLzgKkp2/ctM5OI=', 'site': 'Guomao Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国贸期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625507453_1.pdf?1709653865000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625507453_1.pdf?1709653865000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Financial Information Weekly Report', 'originalAuthor': '', 'originalContent': '【 宏观】 国内 PMI 走势分化，美国 PCE 符合预期观点： 宏观因素多空交织，商品走势震荡，关注下周重要事件和非农数据的指引逻辑： 近期国内商品持续震荡运行，一是，国内宏观预期和供需弱现实的博弈或愈发剧烈， 导致工业品陷入宽幅震荡；二是，美国经济的强韧性与降息预期的反复造成了行情的混乱；三是，地缘政治、 产量政策调整等供应端的扰动有所增多。展望后市： 下周重要事件和数据来临，关注破局因素的出现。国内部分，一方面，政府工作报告对于经济和政策的定调，将会为未来一段时间经济发展指明方向，尤其是财政如何发力值得高度关注；另一方面， PSL 连续净投放，“三大工程”等有望加速推进，关注“金三银四”旺季需求的释放。海外部分， 1 月 PCE 通胀走势符合预期，减缓了市场的担忧情绪， 当前需要重点关注的是通胀和非农数据反弹的持续性，若下周公布的 2 月非农数据重回放缓趋势，那么市场的降息预期有望再度升温。 地缘政治部分， 俄乌冲突、巴以局势等短期内看不到解决的路径， 或仍将对供应端带来扰动，关注相关方和谈的走向', 'content': '[Macro] The trend of domestic PMI is divided, and the US PCE is in line with expectations. Macro factors are intertwined with long and short, and commodity trends are volatile. Pay attention to important events next week and the guidance logic of non-agricultural data: Domestic commodities have continued to fluctuate recently. First, domestic macro expectations The game with the reality of weak supply and demand may become more intense, causing industrial products to fall into wide fluctuations; secondly, the resilience of the U.S. economy and repeated expectations of interest rate cuts have caused market chaos; thirdly, supply-side changes such as geopolitics and output policy adjustments Disturbance has increased. Looking forward to the market outlook: Important events and data will arrive next week, so pay attention to the emergence of disruptive factors. In the domestic part, on the one hand, the government work report sets the tone for the economy and policies, which will point out the direction for economic development in the future, especially how fiscal efforts are used. It deserves great attention; on the other hand, PSL has continued net investment, and the \"three major \"Project\" and other projects are expected to be accelerated, and attention will be paid to the release of demand in the \"Gold, Three, Silver and Four\" peak seasons. Overseas, the PCE inflation trend in January was in line with expectations, which alleviated market concerns. What needs to be focused on now is the sustainability of the rebound in inflation and non-agricultural data. If the February non-agricultural data released next week returns to a slowing trend, Then the market\\'s interest rate cut expectations are expected to heat up again. In terms of geopolitics, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli situation cannot be resolved in the short term, and may still cause disturbances to the supply side. Pay attention to the direction of the peace talks between relevant parties.', 'authorid': UUID('0a68eb57-c88a-5f34-9e9d-27f85e68af4f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9330172128975391, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '42DGBU66HCCRHES3DGP581V1BVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:33 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '42DGBU66HCCRHES3DGP581V1BVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9230e3bc-794c-5cf5-9266-7f881e458d71'), 'title': 'Brief review on carbon trading: Green manufacturing opinions are released, and large-scale commercial use of CCUS can be expected', 'author': 'Tang Huijing', 'orgName': '中信建投期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80098340', 'orgSName': '中信建投期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYAH0ugQw6rB8hbZZlVRok3c=', 'researcher': '唐惠珽', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000356536'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYAH0ugQw6rB8hbZZlVRok3c=', 'site': 'CITIC Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中信建投期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625506584_1.pdf?1709649948000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625506584_1.pdf?1709649948000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Brief review on carbon trading: Green manufacturing opinions are released, and large-scale commercial use of CCUS can be expected', 'originalAuthor': '唐惠珽', 'originalContent': '今日行情碳配额19-20、22价格上涨碳配额21无成交1、涨跌幅：今日碳配额19-20、22收盘价上涨，碳配额21价格不变。2、价差：碳排放配额22收盘价为85.50元/吨，与碳排放配额21价差走阔。3、成交量：今日碳配额19-20成交量上升，碳配额22成交量下降，碳配额21无成交。市场消息绿色制造意见出台，CCUS规模商用可期1、3月1日，工信部等七部门联合发布关于加快推动绿色制造业绿色化发展的指导意见。2、2月29日，海南省生态环境厅等六部门联合印发《关于鼓励开展海南省大型活动碳中和的指导意见》，就实现大型活动碳中和的实施范围、实施流程、保障措施等做了充分说明。', 'content': 'Today’s market prices of carbon quotas 19-20 and 22 increased, but there was no transaction for carbon quota 21. 1. Increase or decrease: Today’s closing prices of carbon quotas 19-20 and 22 increased, while the price of carbon quota 21 remained unchanged. 2. Price difference: The closing price of carbon emission quota 22 is 85.50 yuan/ton, and the price difference with the price of carbon emission quota 21 is wide. 3. Transaction volume: Today, the transaction volume of carbon quota 19-20 increased, the transaction volume of carbon quota 22 decreased, and there was no transaction of carbon quota 21. Market News Green Manufacturing Opinions Released, CCUS Large-Scale Commercial Operation Can Be Expected On March 1, seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued guidance on accelerating the green development of green manufacturing. 2. On February 29, six departments including the Hainan Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the \"Guiding Opinions on Encouraging Carbon Neutrality in Large-scale Events in Hainan Province\", which provides guidance on the implementation scope, implementation process, and safeguard measures to achieve carbon neutrality in large-scale events. Fully explained.', 'authorid': UUID('802a4a9b-6480-53da-8fad-27bfb6990aef'), 'sentimentScore': 0.37298987060785294, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'M2PC0AGES3EC7OOA978QBLGC2RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:35 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'M2PC0AGES3EC7OOA978QBLGC2RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('bc2cb3a3-faf4-52c1-af0a-0a3c45de5377'), 'title': 'CTA Strategy Index Weekly Tracking', 'author': 'Peng Jingqiao, Yin Zixu', 'orgName': '中信建投期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80098340', 'orgSName': '中信建投期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYJm+goRPlA7P2WxgWrj4Ppc=', 'researcher': '彭鲸桥,殷子旭', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000236822', '11000459836'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYJm+goRPlA7P2WxgWrj4Ppc=', 'site': 'CITIC Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中信建投期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625506599_1.pdf?1709649541000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625506599_1.pdf?1709649541000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'CTA Strategy Index Weekly Tracking', 'originalAuthor': '彭鲸桥,殷子旭', 'originalContent': '摘要：目前商品市场波动率处于17.8%年内历史分位点。从周度表现看，上周反转>趋势。短中长周期趋势周净值变动0.12%/-0.71%/-0.07%，60日反转策略周净值变动-0.2%。从月度表现看，上月反转>趋势。短中长周期趋势净值变动-1.17%/-3.25%/-0.61%，60日反转策略净值变动0.17%。从上周的策略板块表现看，短周期趋势在有色板块较好，净值变动0.51%；在贵金属板块较差，净值变动-0.31%。中周期趋势在贵金属板块较好，净值变动1.79%；在农产品板块上业绩较差，净值变动-1.52%。长周期趋势在贵金属板块较好，净值变动1.79%；在能化板块较差，净值变动-0.45%。60日反转在有色板块较好，净值变动0.51%；在农产品板块较差，净值变动-0.61%。从各策略的板块年内表现看，通过夏普比率排序：短周期趋势上，有色>贵金属>农产品>能化>黑色，年化收益为5.51%/9.18%/1.93%/-2.43%/-13.25%；中周期趋势上，农产品>黑色>能化>有色>贵金属，年化收益为5.27%/0.46%/-1.12%/-3.27%/-21.85%；长周期趋势上，农产品>黑色>能化>贵金属>有色，年化收益为7.01%/5.34%/-7.01%/-15.16%/-8.37%；。注：短中长周期趋势回溯日数分别为20/120/240天。风险提示：存在策略失效风险、模型误设风险、历史统计规律失效等风险。', 'content': \"Summary: The current commodity market volatility is at the historical quantile of 17.8% for the year. Judging from the weekly performance, last week's reversal>trend. The short, medium and long cycle trend’s weekly net value changed by 0.12%/-0.71%/-0.07%, and the 60-day reversal strategy’s weekly net value changed by -0.2%. Looking at the monthly performance, last month reversed > trend. The net value of the short, medium and long cycle trend changed by -1.17%/-3.25%/-0.61%, and the net value of the 60-day reversal strategy changed by 0.17%. Judging from the performance of strategic sectors last week, the short-term trend was better in the non-ferrous sector, with a net value change of 0.51%; in the precious metals sector, the short-term trend was worse, with a net value change of -0.31%. The mid-cycle trend is better in the precious metals sector, with a net value change of 1.79%; in the agricultural products sector, performance is poor, with a net value change of -1.52%. The long-term trend is better in the precious metals sector, with a net value change of 1.79%; in the energy and chemical sector, it is worse, with a net value change of -0.45%. The 60-day reversal was better in the nonferrous sector, with a net value change of 0.51%; it was worse in the agricultural products sector, with a net value change of -0.61%. Judging from the performance of each strategy's sectors during the year, sorted by the Sharpe ratio: in the short-term trend, nonferrous metals>precious metals>agricultural products>energy chemical>black, the annualized return is 5.51%/9.18%/1.93%/-2.43%/-13.25% ; In the mid-cycle trend, agricultural products > black > energy chemicals > nonferrous metals > precious metals, the annualized return is 5.27%/0.46%/-1.12%/-3.27%/-21.85%; in the long-term trend, agricultural products > black > energy chemicals > Precious metals > Non-ferrous metals, the annualized return is 7.01%/5.34%/-7.01%/-15.16%/-8.37%;. Note: The number of lookback days for short, medium and long cycle trends is 20/120/240 days respectively. Risk warning: There are risks such as strategy failure risk, model misconfiguration risk, and historical statistical law failure.\", 'authorid': UUID('fcee1c4b-750c-5df6-973a-69442d346a9b'), 'sentimentScore': -0.16775458306074142, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'SSMSKFMHP3CQGHTT7EO4TS39OBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:38 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'SSMSKFMHP3CQGHTT7EO4TS39OBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('82065556-c750-5de4-9cef-866b0c722298'), 'title': '2024 US Election Express (2): \"Super Tuesday\" is coming, and the \"battle\" for the House of Representatives and the Senate begins simultaneously', 'author': 'Wei Wei, Zhou Chang', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYIktJhZgwYiS01dg5QFaZ6w=', 'researcher': '魏伟,周畅', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000191821', '11000443154'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYIktJhZgwYiS01dg5QFaZ6w=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625506045_1.pdf?1709653198000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625506045_1.pdf?1709653198000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '2024 US Election Express (2): \"Super Tuesday\" is coming, and the \"battle\" for the House of Representatives and the Senate begins simultaneously', 'originalAuthor': '魏伟,周畅', 'originalContent': '党内竞选|特朗普初选首败，仍可能于12日获得提名特朗普横扫爱达荷、密苏里和密歇根，黑利在华盛顿特区获首胜：当地时间3月2日，共和党分别在爱达荷州、密苏里州进行党团会议，特朗普均以压倒性优势战胜黑利，按照当地选票分配规则，如果某位总统候选人得票率超过50%，则得到全部代表票，因此特朗普赢得爱达荷州与密苏里州全部共86张选票。此外，密歇根州剩余的39张选票也全由特朗普获得。同时，在当地时间3月3日举行的华盛顿特区共和党初选中，黑利以62%的支持率获得初选首胜，赢得全部19张选票。整体来看，黑利仍大幅落后于特朗普，目前票差进一步拉大至204票。特朗普仍有可能最快于3月12日获得党内提名：根据共和党党内竞选规则，获得总统提名需获得占总票数一半以上的票数（即总票数2429张中的1215票）。截至3月12日，总计开票票数将达1366票，超总票数的一半。截至3月3日，特朗普共获得247票，黑利共获得43票，二者差距较大。若3月4日至3月12日期间，特朗普能获得968票及以上（即此期间获得的票数达总开票总数的91.0%及以上），其仍有可能最快于12日获得党内提名。', 'content': \"Party campaign | Trump lost his first primary, but may still be nominated on the 12th. Trump swept Idaho, Missouri and Michigan, and Haley won his first victory in Washington, D.C.: On March 2, local time, the Republican Party During the caucuses in Idaho and Missouri, Trump defeated Haley by an overwhelming margin. According to local vote allocation rules, if a presidential candidate gets more than 50% of the votes, he will get all the delegates. Therefore, Trump Trump won a total of 86 votes in Idaho and Missouri. In addition, all the remaining 39 votes in Michigan were won by Trump. At the same time, in the Republican primary election in Washington, DC, held on March 3, local time, Haley won the primary victory with 62% support, winning all 19 votes. Overall, Haley still lags far behind Trump, with the current vote gap widening to 204 votes. Trump is still likely to receive the party's nomination as soon as March 12: According to the Republican Party's internal campaign rules, more than half of the total votes are required to obtain the presidential nomination (i.e. 1,215 of the total 2,429 votes). As of March 12, the total number of votes cast will reach 1,366, more than half of the total number of votes cast. As of March 3, Trump had received a total of 247 votes and Haley had received a total of 43 votes. There is a large gap between the two. If Trump can obtain 968 or more votes between March 4 and March 12 (that is, the number of votes obtained during this period reaches 91.0% or more of the total number of votes cast), he may still win the party title as soon as the 12th. Nominated within.\", 'authorid': UUID('34e7baf4-e205-5137-b5ef-d1ca6bacf118'), 'sentimentScore': 0.06780661270022392, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KCT617G09GUUN8EAMDBUBOPLQ7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:41 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KCT617G09GUUN8EAMDBUBOPLQ7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('21e12e00-8f50-5615-a6f4-963253153300'), 'title': '[Guangdong Open Macro] Nine major signals released by the government work report', 'author': 'Luo Zhiheng, Ma Jiajin, Yuanye, Fang Kun', 'orgName': '粤开证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000118', 'orgSName': '粤开证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYES5C8jlEHgFEjD8B16u9vY=', 'researcher': '罗志恒,马家进,原野,方堃', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245432', '11000375233', '11000370251', '11000282034'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYES5C8jlEHgFEjD8B16u9vY=', 'site': 'Guangdong Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '粤开证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625504615_1.pdf?1709647070000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625504615_1.pdf?1709647070000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '[Guangdong Open Macro] Nine major signals released by the government work report', 'originalAuthor': '罗志恒,马家进,原野,方堃', 'originalContent': '投资要点事件2024年3月5日上午，十四届全国人大二次会议开幕，李强总理作《政府工作报告》，全面总结2023年工作成绩，明确2024年经济社会发展主要预期目标和政策取向，部署2024年政府工作任务。本次会议有诸多新内容：提高城镇新增就业目标至“1200万人以上”，发行1万亿元超长期特别国债，一般公共预算支出比上年增加1.1万亿元，地方政府专项债券比上年增加1000亿元，中央预算内投资拟安排7000亿元，鼓励和推动消费品以旧换新、设备更新和技术改造，加大保障性住房建设和供给、完善商品房相关基础性制度等。风险提示：外部冲击超预期、稳增长政策超预期', 'content': 'Key investment events On the morning of March 5, 2024, the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress opened. Premier Li Qiang delivered the \"Government Work Report\", comprehensively summarizing the work achievements in 2023 and clarifying the main expected goals and policy orientations for economic and social development in 2024. Deploy government work tasks for 2024. This meeting has many new contents: raising the target of new urban employment to \"more than 12 million people\", issuing 1 trillion yuan of super-long-term special treasury bonds, general public budget expenditures increasing by 1.1 trillion yuan over the previous year, local government special bond ratios It increased by 100 billion yuan last year, and 700 billion yuan is planned to be invested in the central budget to encourage and promote the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, equipment upgrades and technological transformations, increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, and improve basic systems related to commercial housing. Risk warning: External shocks exceed expectations, and policies to stabilize growth exceed expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('0c74a2f6-bf0c-5430-831a-1d9841404fae'), 'sentimentScore': 0.125352437607944, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '9ORGD9BUTB55LQRLO7DMCR74JBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:43 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '9ORGD9BUTB55LQRLO7DMCR74JBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ce217e50-1892-5bfe-90f3-28070779efb8'), 'title': 'Monthly Macro Insights: Will the U.S. Economy Become a Hard Landing?', 'author': 'Jin Xiaowen', 'orgName': '浦银国际证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '81070432', 'orgSName': '浦银国际证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYN07wm+rGFryLEfZEHUznts=', 'researcher': '金晓雯', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000442747'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYN07wm+rGFryLEfZEHUznts=', 'site': 'Shanghai Pudong International Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '浦银国际证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625503615_1.pdf?1709647464000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625503615_1.pdf?1709647464000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Monthly Macro Insights: Will the U.S. Economy Become a Hard Landing?', 'originalAuthor': '金晓雯', 'originalContent': '1月美国经济数据显示软着陆的机会似乎有所减少。在去年12月数据发布后，市场对美国经济软着陆的期望似乎达到了顶点。尽管如此，我们在上一份的宏观洞察中就已经指出，美国经济在2024年要实现软着陆并不容易，经济过热和过冷均有可能发生。而美国1月的经济数据正好体现了这一点。经济迅速降温以及再通胀似乎同时在发生。一方面，绝大部分1月实体经济数据均有所走弱且低于预期。另一方面，CPI和PPI均超预期回升，PCE虽符合预期但也有小幅上升。与此同时，非农新增就业数据亦出乎意料地上升到35.3万人，或影响劳动力成本的进一步下降的速度。基于宏观背景的变化，降息预期近期明显减���，甚至市场有声音担忧美联储是否还会再加息。市场计入的3月降息概率已经由2月初的37%下跌到0%，首次降息预期大概率落在6月。全年的降息次数预期也从12月美联储会议后的6.75次一路下降到3.5次。市场上甚至出现了美联储下一步操作可能是加息而不是降息的声音。我们认为加息的担忧是过虑的，仅1月单月数据并不足以显示经济已经陷入硬着陆或者再通胀。首先，实体经济数据例如零售和工业生产的走弱可能受季节性趋势影响，12月数据通常较为强劲。其次，年度季节调整可能是新增就业超预期的原因之一，去年12月数据也被上调到33.3万人（之前为21.6万人）。分行业看，仅有教育医疗以及专业和商业服务新增就业较多，其他行业表现较为平淡。与此同时，失业率并未下降，而是维持在3.7%。时薪同比增速亦不升反降。我们判断1月新增就业人数数据或仅为特殊情况，劳动力市场温和收紧的趋势依然不变。最后，环比通胀走强亦有年初工资调整（时薪环比增加1.2%之多）和波动性因素的影响。外宿和运输（尤其是机票）价格的大幅上升是推动核心服务CPI走高的重要原因，而两者从历史规律来看波动较大，价格上升或并不可持续。我们认为还需要更多数据来判断美国经济是否会陷入硬着陆或再通胀。我们对通胀的基本判断依然是通胀率可能会有所反复，但是整体趋势还是温和向下。', 'content': \"U.S. economic data for January showed the chances of a soft landing appear to have diminished. After the release of data in December last year, market expectations for a soft landing in the U.S. economy seemed to have reached their peak. Despite this, we have pointed out in our last macro insight that it will not be easy for the U.S. economy to achieve a soft landing in 2024, and both economic overheating and undercooling are likely to occur. The U.S. economic data in January reflects this exactly. Rapid economic cooling and reflation appear to be occurring simultaneously. On the one hand, most real economic data in January were weaker and lower than expected. On the other hand, both CPI and PPI rebounded beyond expectations, and PCE also rose slightly although it was in line with expectations. At the same time, the new non-agricultural employment data unexpectedly rose to 353,000, which may affect the speed of further decline in labor costs. Based on changes in the macroeconomic background, interest rate cut expectations have significantly diminished recently, and there are even concerns in the market about whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again. The market's probability of a rate cut in March has dropped from 37% in early February to 0%, and the first rate cut is expected to most likely fall in June. The number of interest rate cuts expected throughout the year has also dropped to 3.5 from 6.75 after the December Fed meeting. There are even voices in the market that the Fed's next move may be to raise interest rates rather than cut them. We believe that concerns about raising interest rates are exaggerated. The January data alone is not enough to show that the economy has entered a hard landing or reflation. First, the weakening in real economic data such as retail sales and industrial production may be affected by seasonal trends, with December data usually being stronger. Secondly, the annual seasonal adjustment may be one of the reasons for the higher-than-expected increase in new employment. The data for December last year was also revised upward to 333,000 (previously 216,000). In terms of industries, only education, medical care, and professional and business services created more jobs, while other industries performed relatively flat. At the same time, the unemployment rate did not fall, but remained at 3.7%. The year-on-year growth rate of hourly wages also declined instead of rising. We judge that the new employment data in January may only be a special situation, and the trend of moderate tightening of the labor market remains unchanged. Finally, the stronger month-on-month inflation is also affected by wage adjustments at the beginning of the year (hourly wages increased by as much as 1.2% month-on-month) and volatility factors. The sharp increase in the prices of accommodation and transportation (especially air tickets) is an important reason for the increase in the CPI of core services. However, historical patterns of both have large fluctuations, and the price increase may not be sustainable. We believe more data is needed to determine whether the US economy will fall into a hard landing or reflation. Our basic judgment on inflation is still that the inflation rate may fluctuate, but the overall trend is still moderately downward.\", 'authorid': UUID('777b0405-2b18-5046-a5d4-5ba161bb71cc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9213534761220217, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3BTPISJ85O41D8LNMT7OLJ2TCNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:46 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3BTPISJ85O41D8LNMT7OLJ2TCNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('09e88b81-249a-51c5-a76d-1398fe381e26'), 'title': 'Weekly observation on risk pricing of major asset classes: the first week of March 24', 'author': 'Song Xuetao, Lin Yan', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYGhLBHlMUz6E1ClyB1YaDf0=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛,林彦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658', '11000425634'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYGhLBHlMUz6E1ClyB1YaDf0=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625455558_1.pdf?1709633523000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625455558_1.pdf?1709633523000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly observation on risk pricing of major asset classes: the first week of March 24', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛,林彦', 'originalContent': '3月第1周（2月26日-3月1日），美股三大指数普遍上涨，Wind全A上涨2.42%，日均成交上涨至11001亿元。30个一级行业大部分上涨；通信、计算机和电子涨幅领跑，煤炭、银行和交通运输表现靠后。信用债指数上升0.25%，国债指数上涨0.26%。风险提示：地缘冲突进一步升级；经济复苏斜率不及预期；货币政策超预期收紧', 'content': 'In the first week of March (February 26-March 1), the three major U.S. stock indexes generally rose, with Wind all A rising by 2.42%, and the average daily turnover rose to 1.1001 billion yuan. Most of the 30 first-level industries rose; communications, computers and electronics led the way, while coal, banking and transportation lagged behind. The credit bond index rose 0.25% and the government bond index rose 0.26%. Risk warning: geopolitical conflicts further escalate; economic recovery slope is lower than expected; monetary policy tightens beyond expectations', 'authorid': UUID('36e3252c-e8b8-57b7-8761-bedbc96e9406'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8762814998626709, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '0FEHP4D6G1LH7PRCJPGI3H7RLVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '0FEHP4D6G1LH7PRCJPGI3H7RLVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('81e26e9d-4772-5885-8b6c-9efbf78280fd'), 'title': 'Macroscopic review: Two generations go overseas', 'author': 'Song Xuetao', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYJmTmsgKOzmzwobpb40GquU=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYJmTmsgKOzmzwobpb40GquU=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625455561_1.pdf?1709633431000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625455561_1.pdf?1709633431000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroscopic review: Two generations go overseas', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛', 'originalContent': '出口是货出去，出海是人出去。研究出海，最重要的变量是人。对二级市场投资来说，“出海”不是出口，而是一个全新的议题。我们谈论“出海”的投资机会时还是习惯性地寻找海外业务收入占比较高的公司，这可能是一个“陷阱”。“出海”与出口不同，不能仅凭出口货值或者海外业务收入占比判断企业的出海潜力，而是需要从第一性原理出发，从创始人开始梳理，关注有国际化经验背景的创始人或者创二代接班的公司。出海的企业虽多，但发展还在早期，很多企业是小帆船，并非大航母。一年利润有限，上市融资的需求较少。如何走出去做80亿人的生意依然是一个重要的议题，但也是大势所趋，而且从制造到消费、服务、传媒，各个行业都有开拓海外市场的动力，这将给股票估值空间带来提升的可能空间。风险提示：海外营商环境不及预期；地缘政治导致出海受阻；出海目的地政局、社会稳定不及预期', 'content': 'Export means goods go out, and going to sea means people go out. When studying overseas, the most important variable is people. For secondary market investment, \"going overseas\" is not exporting, but a completely new topic. When we talk about \"overseas\" investment opportunities, we still habitually look for companies with a relatively high proportion of overseas business revenue. This may be a \"trap.\" \"Going overseas\" is different from exporting. You cannot judge a company\\'s overseas potential solely by the value of exports or the proportion of overseas business revenue. Instead, you need to start from first principles, start with the founders, and focus on founders with international experience. Or create a company that will be succeeded by the second generation. Although there are many companies going overseas, their development is still in the early stages. Many of them are small sailing ships, not large aircraft carriers. One-year profits are limited and there is less demand for listing financing. How to go out and do business for 8 billion people is still an important issue, but it is also the general trend. From manufacturing to consumption, services, and media, all industries have the motivation to open up overseas markets, which will improve the stock valuation space. possible space. Risk warning: The overseas business environment is not as good as expected; geopolitics has hindered overseas travel; the political situation and social stability of overseas destinations are not as good as expected.', 'authorid': UUID('e546a080-7eae-5a16-8b31-ee315393fe93'), 'sentimentScore': -0.05079978331923485, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3SSM32NNBJT964DEV2P86ONFHBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:50 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3SSM32NNBJT964DEV2P86ONFHBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('cb889e48-255f-56ce-b72e-1b1bed67c345'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Weekly: Waiting for action', 'author': 'Wei Zhichao, Huang Yuyang', 'orgName': '首创证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000122', 'orgSName': '首创证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYITsu5dNYGoerZPuW3znzUU=', 'researcher': '韦志超,黄煜阳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000279539', '11000415933'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYITsu5dNYGoerZPuW3znzUU=', 'site': 'Capital Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '首创证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625451974_1.pdf?1709629042000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625451974_1.pdf?1709629042000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Weekly: Waiting for action', 'originalAuthor': '韦志超,黄煜阳', 'originalContent': '核心观点经济仍在低位。2月PMI平均值虽然延续了1月的回升态势，但总体仍然处于较低水平。制造业、建筑业和服务业PMI分别为49.1%、53.5%和51.0%，较前值分别下降0.1、0.4和上升0.9个百分点，综合PMI2月读数为50.9%，与前值持平。需要指出的是，商品房销售的持续低迷可能对后续经济修复带来较大的不确定性。市场风格延续。国内市场表现与经济出现了分化，2月股、债均有较大幅度的涨幅，工业品指数维持平稳。周内股、债均在波折中继续上涨，万得全A上涨2.4%，中债10年国债到期收益率下行3.3个BP。股市从行业板块来看，本周延续了上周的风格，表现最好的仍然是TMT，引领科创和创业板指数涨幅居前。利率债引起广泛关注的是期限利差的进一步收窄，周内1年、5年、10年、30年期国债到期收益率分别上行1.3、上行1.4、下行3.3和下行8.9个BP。关注期限利差。本次期限利差收窄出现两个新的特征：（1）利差压缩程度极致，30年期与10年期国债收益率的利差创新低；（2）利差压缩时刻特殊，无论是中国利率债的历史规律还是参考其他国家利率债情况，30年与10年债券期限利差收窄通胀在10年期债券收益率上行期间发生，本次却是在债券牛市发生。我们观察到，期限利差与10年国债收益率在2022年之后发生背离并非中国特例，如亚洲市场上的印度和印尼国债也出现了类似情况，但程度没有我国这么极致。。高频数据扫描。高频数据显示经济低位平稳运行，关键数据起色不大，而且房地产行业的风险仍未得到解除。后市展望。经济虽然略有修复，但整体仍然处于低位，特别是制造业的弱势不改，近期市场的反弹很大程度上是政策催化所致，并且，股、债到了当前位置均出现了一定程度的动量弱化。因此，A股短期大幅上涨的可能性不大，再度大幅下跌的风险不大，策略上可以待机而动。债市尽管收益率向下的趋势短期内��有大的变化，但30年与10年的利差已经过低，如果继续压低，可以逐步介入博弈收益率曲线陡峭化的策略。风险提示。地产下行超预期，政策不及预期，海外扰动超预期。', 'content': \"The core view is that the economy is still at a low level. Although the average PMI in February continued the upward trend in January, it is still at a low level overall. The manufacturing, construction and service PMIs were 49.1%, 53.5% and 51.0% respectively, down 0.1, 0.4 and 0.9 percentage points respectively from the previous value. The comprehensive PMI reading in February was 50.9%, the same as the previous value. It should be pointed out that the continued downturn in commercial housing sales may bring greater uncertainty to the subsequent economic recovery. The market style continues. The performance of the domestic market and the economy have diverged. Both stocks and bonds rose significantly in February, while the industrial products index remained stable. During the week, both stocks and bonds continued to rise despite the twists and turns. Wind Quan A rose by 2.4%, and ChinaBond's 10-year Treasury bond yield to maturity fell by 3.3 BP. From the perspective of industry sectors, the stock market continued last week's style this week. The best performer was still TMT, which led the gains in the Science and Technology Innovation and GEM indexes. Interest rate bonds have attracted widespread attention due to the further narrowing of term spreads. During the week, the maturity yields of 1-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds rose by 1.3, 1.4, 3.3, and 8.9 BP respectively. Pay attention to term spreads. There are two new characteristics of this narrowing of term spreads: (1) The degree of spread compression is extreme, and the spread between the 30-year and 10-year treasury bond yields has hit a new low; (2) The moment of spread compression is special, whether it is The historical pattern of China's interest rate bonds still refers to the situation of interest rate bonds in other countries. The interest rate spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds narrows and inflation occurs during the period when the 10-year bond yield rises. This time, it occurred during the bond bull market. We have observed that the divergence between term spreads and 10-year government bond yields after 2022 is not a special case in China. For example, similar situations have occurred with Indian and Indonesian government bonds in the Asian market, but the extent is not as extreme as in our country. . High frequency data scanning. High-frequency data shows that the economy is running smoothly at a low level, key data has shown little improvement, and risks in the real estate industry have not been eliminated. Outlook. Although the economy has recovered slightly, the overall economy is still at a low level, especially the weakness of the manufacturing industry. The recent market rebound is largely due to policy catalysis, and stocks and bonds have shown a certain degree of momentum at their current positions. weaken. Therefore, it is unlikely that A-shares will rise sharply in the short term, and the risk of another sharp decline is small, and the strategy can be prepared for action. Although the downward trend of yields in the bond market has not changed significantly in the short term, the spread between 30-year and 10-year interest rates is already too low. If it continues to be depressed, strategies for steepening the yield curve can be gradually introduced. risk warning. The real estate downturn exceeded expectations, policies fell short of expectations, and overseas disturbances exceeded expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('0181c0d9-e631-5b03-bfe5-4493ac0ae23e'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9668066622689366, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'EUR0DPC7QFESRROF98G17AQF0FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:53 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'EUR0DPC7QFESRROF98G17AQF0FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('afe8f825-56c9-568c-89e7-28c492ef4de3'), 'title': 'Comments on February PMI data: The economy is operating at a low level and has improved slightly month-on-month.', 'author': 'Wei Zhichao, Huang Yuyang', 'orgName': '首创证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000122', 'orgSName': '首创证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYCvnh5ogOKHuWyF1JDbZlSg=', 'researcher': '韦志超,黄煜阳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000279539', '11000415933'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYCvnh5ogOKHuWyF1JDbZlSg=', 'site': 'Capital Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '首创证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625451973_1.pdf?1709628882000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625451973_1.pdf?1709628882000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February PMI data: The economy is operating at a low level and has improved slightly month-on-month.', 'originalAuthor': '韦志超,黄煜阳', 'originalContent': '核心观点2月的经济特征：（1）经济虽然延续回升，但整体仍然处于低位；（2）服务业比制造业恢复更好；（3）在考虑春节因素之后，经济环比不算差，特别是服务业。经济仍在低位。2月制造业、建筑业和服务业PMI分别为49.1%、53.5%和51.0%，较前值分别下降0.1、0.4和上升0.9个百分点，仍然处于低位。综合PMI2月读数为50.9%，与前值持平。由于服务业PMI的反弹，制造业和非制造业PMI的均值继续上升。在考虑春节因素之后，2月服务业PMI的反弹幅度依然明显。PMI分项指标大都走弱。2月制造业PMI分项指标，除了新订单PMI读数与前值持平，其余分项均走弱。生产、供货商配送时间、新订单、原材料库存、从业人员等PMI2月分别录得49.8%、48.8%、49.0%、47.4%和47.5%，较前值分别下降1.5、2.0、0.0、0.2和0.1个百分点。剔除配送时间的PMI更弱。在制造业PMI分项中，供货商配送时间PMI为逆指标，其在2月较大幅度的下行可能对读数造成干扰，因此，我们构造一个剔除供货商配送时间的PMI，构造的PMI显示2月的经济形势可能比PMI显示的下滑幅度更大。其他PMI分项同样不强。（1）采购方面，采购量和进口PMI分别录得48.0%和46.4%，较前值下降1.2和0.3个百分点；（2）订单和库存方面，在手订单和新出口订单PMI分别录得43.5%和46.3%，较前值下降0.8和0.9个百分点。倒算的国内订单为49.7%，较前值小幅增加0.2个百分点。产成品库存PMI录得47.9%，较前值下降1.5个百分点；（3）价格方面，出厂价格PMI和原材料购进价格PMI分别录得48.1%和50.10，较前值上升1.1和下降0.3个百分点。后市展望。经济虽然仍然在低位，但综合制造业和非制造业来看，短期内可能维持平稳。经济的明显好转仍然需要等待政策的变化，4月政治局会议是关键时点。由于利空因素在之前得到明显释放，加上政策强势，短期市场再度大幅下跌的风险不大。经济基本面仍处弱势，市场大幅上涨的可能性也不大。风险提示。地产下行超预期，政策不及预期，海外扰动超预期。。', 'content': \"Core points of view: Economic characteristics in February: (1) Although the economy continues to rebound, the overall economy is still at a low level; (2) The service industry has recovered better than the manufacturing industry; (3) After taking into account the Spring Festival factors, the economic chain is not bad, especially It's the service industry. The economy is still at a low level. In February, the manufacturing, construction and service PMIs were 49.1%, 53.5% and 51.0% respectively, down 0.1, 0.4 and up 0.9 percentage points respectively from the previous values, still at low levels. The comprehensive PMI February reading was 50.9%, the same as the previous value. Due to the rebound of the service PMI, the average value of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI continued to rise. After taking into account the Spring Festival factors, the rebound in the service industry PMI in February was still obvious. Most of the PMI sub-indicators weakened. Among the sub-indicators of the manufacturing PMI in February, except for the new orders PMI reading, which was unchanged from the previous value, all other sub-indicators weakened. The PMI for production, supplier delivery time, new orders, raw material inventory, and employees recorded 49.8%, 48.8%, 49.0%, 47.4%, and 47.5% respectively in February, down 1.5, 2.0, 0.0, 0.2, and 0.2 respectively from the previous value. 0.1 percentage points. The PMI excluding delivery time is even weaker. In the manufacturing PMI sub-item, the supplier delivery time PMI is an inverse indicator. Its relatively large decline in February may interfere with the reading. Therefore, we construct a PMI that excludes supplier delivery time. The constructed PMI It shows that the economic situation in February may have declined more sharply than the PMI indicated. Other PMI sub-items are also not strong. (1) In terms of purchasing, the purchasing volume and import PMI recorded 48.0% and 46.4% respectively, down 1.2 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous value; (2) In terms of orders and inventory, the orders on hand and new export orders PMI recorded 43.5 respectively. % and 46.3%, down 0.8 and 0.9 percentage points from the previous value. The calculated domestic orders were 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The finished goods inventory PMI recorded 47.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous value; (3) In terms of prices, the ex-factory price PMI and raw material purchase price PMI recorded 48.1% and 50.10 respectively, an increase of 1.1 percentage points and a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value. . Outlook. Although the economy is still at a low level, looking at the manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries, it is likely to remain stable in the short term. A significant improvement in the economy still needs to wait for policy changes, and the April Politburo meeting is a critical time. Since the negative factors have been clearly released before, coupled with strong policies, there is little risk of another sharp decline in the short-term market. Economic fundamentals are still weak, and the possibility of a sharp market rise is unlikely. risk warning. The real estate downturn exceeded expectations, policies fell short of expectations, and overseas disturbances exceeded expectations. .\", 'authorid': UUID('0181c0d9-e631-5b03-bfe5-4493ac0ae23e'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9566783513873816, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'QOGVPJS255G027DS87G353HMV3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:56 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'QOGVPJS255G027DS87G353HMV3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('09df76da-2db9-593a-9610-619cc88debe3'), 'title': 'Comments on PMI data in February 2024: Manufacturing production fell slightly due to the traditional off-season impact', 'author': 'Cao Ming', 'orgName': '华龙证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000156', 'orgSName': '华龙证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYEKn8zJW62hkApr1GGz/apI=', 'researcher': '曹明', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000196935'], 'count': 1, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYEKn8zJW62hkApr1GGz/apI=', 'site': 'Hualong Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华龙证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625451971_1.pdf?1709630476000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625451971_1.pdf?1709630476000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on PMI data in February 2024: Manufacturing production fell slightly due to the traditional off-season impact', 'originalAuthor': '曹明', 'originalContent': '事件：2024年3月1日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。2月官方制造业PMI为49.1%，比上月下降0.1个百分点。与此同时财新中国制造业采购经理指数PMI录得50.9，较上月微升0.1个百分点。正文：2月制造业采购经理指数PMI为49.1%，比上月下降0.1个百分点，自2023年10月以来已连续5个月处于收缩区间。分类指数均位于荣枯线下方。2月份受到春节假日因素影响，制造业生产活动处于传统生产淡季，构成PMI的五项分类指数均位于荣枯线下方，呈现出一持平、四下降的局势，其中：生产指数为49.8%，比上月下降1.5个百分点；新订单指数为49.0%，与上月持平；原材料库存指数为47.4%，比上月下降0.2个百分点；从业人员指数为47.5%，比上月下降0.1个百分点；供应商配送时间指数为48.8%，比上月下降2.0个百分点。原材料库存与从业人员指数更是连续数月出现下跌态势。产需缺口有所收窄。从产需情况看，2月生产指数为49.8%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，春节期间企业员工假期返乡增多，企业生产活动有所放缓；新订单指数为49.0%，与上月持平，新出口订单指数为46.3%，较上月下降0.9个百分点，在外需下滑的前提下，新订单指数与上月持平，主要受益于春节假期国内需求拉动的影响，这一点也可以从财新制造业PMI与非制造业商务活动指数都较上月有不同程度的提升中得到印证。产需缺口为0.80%，虽然有所回落，但主要影响因素为生产指数下降幅度较大引致。大中小型企业继续延续分化特征。从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.4%，与上月持平，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为49.1%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI为46.4%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，低于临界点，已连续5个月下跌，局势进一步恶化，表明中小企业景气度仍面临民企预期不稳，发展的内生动力未得到彻底激发，信心修复仍需政策组合拳发力。企业预期稳定。2月生产经营活动预期指数为54.2%，较上月上升0.2个百分点，表明企业对春节后市场发展信心有所增强。从行业看，木材加工及家具、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备、电气机械器材等行业生产经营活动预期指数均位于58.0%以上较高景气区间，企业对行业发展信心较强。聚焦发展新质生产力，高技术制造业保持扩张。2月PMI指数中高技术制造业PMI为50.8%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，连��4个月保持在扩张区间，行业延续增长态势。制造业是实体经济的基础，也是建设现代化产业体系的重要领域，优化提升产业结构，加快形成新质生产力，传统产业改造升级，战略新兴产业加快培育，不断聚焦高端化、智能化、绿色化。原材料库存与产成品库存仍有反复。2月PMI指数中原材料库存指数为47.4%，已连续5个月下跌，数值再次回落至2023年6月低点，表明企业补库存意愿有所下滑，生产仍具有一定的被动性；产成品库存指数为47.9%，较1月下降1.5个百分点，得益于2月市场需求有所复苏影响。非制造业扩张步伐继续加快。2月非制造业商务活动指数为51.4%，比1月份上升0.7个百分点。分行业看，建筑业商务活动指数为53.5%，比上月下降0.4个百分点；服务业商务活动指数为51.0%，比上月上升0.9个百分点。春节假期影响下，房屋建筑、装饰与批发业等行业需求出现淡季回调。2月综合PMI产出指数为50.9%，与1月份持平，仍位于扩张区间。整体来看，尽管2月PMI受到传统淡季及春节假期影响指数出现小幅回落，但是指数仍在收缩区间徘徊。此外，从2024年初两个月的PMI均值与2022年、2023年比较看，制造业生产的修复仍不及预期，除国内需求有所复苏外，企业自身的生产与补库意愿仍显不足。全球制造业出现温和回升以及“稳增长”政策持续发力下，国内制造业产需环境都将有不同程度的改善，产需的进一步修复有望带动指数重回扩张区间。风险提示国内经济复苏不及预期。国内经济复苏动能依旧偏弱，结构性矛盾突出，尤其是房地产市场风险带来的金融信用危机，以及地方政府债务能否有效化解都是经济增长的潜在风险点。行业及市场主体风险。由于一些不确定因素的存在，导致对某行业生产、经营、投资或授信后偏离预期结果而造成损失的可能性，包括周期性风险、成长性风险、产业关联度风险。政策落地及政策效果不及预期。外部环境超预期转变，国内市场预期持续转弱，导致政策落地实施与政策效果不及预期。黑天鹅事件。难以预测，但突然发生时会引起连锁反应、带来巨大的负面影响，存在于自然、经济及政治各个领域。所引用数据来源发布错误数据。本报告数据来源于公开或已购买数据库，若这些来源所发布数据出现错误，将可能对分析结果造成影响。', 'content': 'Event: On March 1, 2024, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. The official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. At the same time, the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index recorded 50.9, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Text: The manufacturing purchasing managers index PMI in February was 49.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. It has been in the contraction range for five consecutive months since October 2023. The sub-indices are all below the boom and bust line. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, manufacturing production activities were in the traditional production off-season. The five sub-indices that make up the PMI were all below the boom and bust line, showing a situation of one being flat and four declining. Among them: the production index was 49.8%, compared with Last month decreased by 1.5 percentage points; the new orders index was 49.0%, the same as the previous month; the raw material inventory index was 47.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the employee index was 47.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; supply The merchant delivery time index was 48.8%, down 2.0 percentage points from the previous month. The raw material inventory and employment index have been declining for several consecutive months. The gap between production and demand has narrowed. In terms of production and demand, the production index in February was 49.8%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. During the Spring Festival, more corporate employees returned home during the holidays, and corporate production activities slowed down; the new order index was 49.0%, the same as the previous month. , the new export orders index was 46.3%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. Under the premise of declining external demand, the new orders index was the same as the previous month, mainly benefiting from the impact of domestic demand driven by the Spring Festival holiday. This can also be seen from Caixin This is confirmed by the fact that both the manufacturing PMI and the non-manufacturing business activity index have improved to varying degrees compared with the previous month. The gap between production and demand is 0.80%. Although it has declined somewhat, the main influencing factor is the large decline in the production index. Large, medium and small enterprises continue to be differentiated. In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.4%, the same as last month and higher than the critical point; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 49.1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and lower than the critical point; the PMI of small enterprises was 46.4%, higher than the critical point. It fell by 0.8 percentage points last month, which is below the critical point. It has fallen for five consecutive months. The situation has further deteriorated, indicating that the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises is still facing unstable expectations of private enterprises. The endogenous driving force for development has not been fully stimulated. Policies are still needed to restore confidence. Use combination punches to exert force. Business expectations are stable. The expectation index for production and operating activities in February was 54.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that companies have increased confidence in market development after the Spring Festival. From an industry perspective, the expected index of production and operation activities in industries such as wood processing and furniture, automobiles, railways, ships, aerospace equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment are all in the high-prosperity range above 58.0%, and companies have strong confidence in the development of the industry. Focusing on the development of new productive forces, high-tech manufacturing continued to expand. The high-tech manufacturing PMI in the February PMI index was 50.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. It has remained in the expansion range for four consecutive months, and the industry continues to grow. Manufacturing is the foundation of the real economy and an important area for building a modern industrial system. We must optimize and upgrade the industrial structure, accelerate the formation of new productive forces, transform and upgrade traditional industries, accelerate the cultivation of strategic emerging industries, and constantly focus on high-end, intelligent, and green industries. There is still overlap between raw material inventory and finished product inventory. The raw material inventory index in the PMI index in February was 47.4%, which has fallen for 5 consecutive months. The value has once again fallen to the low in June 2023, indicating that companies’ willingness to replenish inventory has declined, and production is still passive to a certain extent; finished product inventory The index was 47.9%, down 1.5 percentage points from January, benefiting from the recovery in market demand in February. The pace of non-manufacturing expansion continues to accelerate. The non-manufacturing business activity index in February was 51.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from January. In terms of industries, the business activity index of the construction industry was 53.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the business activity index of the service industry was 51.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, demand in the housing construction, decoration and wholesale industries has experienced an off-season correction. The comprehensive PMI output index in February was 50.9%, the same as in January, still in the expansion range. Overall, although the February PMI index fell slightly due to the impact of the traditional off-season and the Spring Festival holiday, the index is still hovering in the contraction range. In addition, comparing the average PMI values \\u200b\\u200bin the first two months of 2024 with those in 2022 and 2023, the recovery of manufacturing production is still less than expected. In addition to the recovery of domestic demand, the enterprises\\' own willingness to produce and restock is still insufficient. With the mild rebound in the global manufacturing industry and the continued efforts of \"stabilizing growth\" policies, the domestic manufacturing production and demand environment will improve to varying degrees. Further restoration of production demand is expected to drive the index back to the expansion range. Risks suggest that the domestic economic recovery is less than expected. The momentum for domestic economic recovery is still weak, and structural contradictions are prominent. In particular, the financial credit crisis caused by real estate market risks and whether local government debt can be effectively resolved are potential risks to economic growth. Industry and market entity risks. Due to the existence of some uncertain factors, there is the possibility of losses caused by deviation from expected results after production, operation, investment or credit granting in a certain industry, including cyclical risks, growth risks, and industry correlation risks. Policy implementation and policy effects fell short of expectations. The external environment has changed beyond expectations, and domestic market expectations have continued to weaken, resulting in policy implementation and policy effects falling short of expectations. Black swan event. It is difficult to predict, but when it occurs suddenly, it will cause chain reactions and bring huge negative impacts, which exist in various fields of nature, economy and politics. The cited data source publishes incorrect data. The data in this report comes from public or purchased databases. If there are errors in the data published by these sources, it may affect the analysis results.', 'authorid': UUID('1cdbef20-5851-5062-b5d9-212455e00e3a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9600946847349405, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'O7EKB3HP0ANME97PUEJ0HVLMUNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:01:59 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'O7EKB3HP0ANME97PUEJ0HVLMUNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c476a9c2-4bef-52c9-adcf-26e2e85cc169'), 'title': 'Monetary policy and liquidity observation: cross-month funds are stable and safe', 'author': 'Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYFrNVlK9q4fgooXkn842XxM=', 'researcher': '董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYFrNVlK9q4fgooXkn842XxM=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625451968_1.pdf?1709632765000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625451968_1.pdf?1709632765000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Monetary policy and liquidity observation: cross-month funds are stable and safe', 'originalAuthor': '董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点跨月资金面平稳无虞海外方面，上周（2月26日-3月1日）全球主要央行货币政策无重大变化。联邦资金利率期货隐含的3月FOMC降息25bp的可能性为5%，不降息的可能性为95%。国内流动性方面，在央行连续净投放呵护下，上周资金面延续均衡偏宽松态势，跨月平稳无虞。短端资金利率中枢有所抬升，总体呈前高后低走势。国信狭义流动性高频扩散指数较节前一周（2月19日-2月23日）边际上升0.01至101.05。其中价格指标贡献-429%，数量指标贡献529%。价格指数下降（收紧）主要上周全周标准化后的R/DR加权利率偏离度（7天/14天利率减去同期限政策利率）和R001总体环比上行拖累，同业存单加权利率下行支撑。数量上，央行上周逆回购超额续作，对数量指标形成支撑。本周需关注以下因素的扰动：同业存单到期超过5000亿元。央行公开市场操作：上周（2月26日-3月3日），央行净投放流动性资金7370亿元。其中：7天逆回购净投放7370亿元（到期4270亿元，投放11640亿元），14天逆回购净投放0亿元（到期0亿元，投放0亿元）。本周（3月4日-3月10日），央行逆回购将到期11640亿元，其中7天逆回购到期11640亿元，14天逆回购到期0亿元。截至本周一（3月4日）央行7天逆回购净投放-3190亿元，14天逆回购净投放0亿元，OMO存量为8450亿元。银行间交易量：上周银行间市场质押回购平均日均成交6.44万亿，较前一周（2月19日-2月25日，7.09万亿）降低0.64万亿。隔夜回购占比为85.7%，较前一周（87.3%）降低1.6pct。债券发行：上周政府债净融资720.6亿元，本周计划发行1928.8亿元，净融资额预计为55.5亿元；上周同业存单净融资567.5亿元，本周计划发行266.1亿元，净融资额预计为-5454.1亿元；上周政策银行债净融资1250.0亿元，本周计划发行180.0亿元，净融资额预计为-620.7亿元；上周商业银行次级债券净融资-400.0亿元，本周计划发行0.0亿元，净融资额预计为-3.0亿元；上周企业债券净融资732.9亿元（其中城投债融资贡献约54%），本周计划发行1212.9亿元，净融资额预计为-1334.3亿元。上周五（3月1日）人民币CFETS一篮子汇率指数较前一周（2月23日）上行0.01至99.44，同期美元指数下行0.09，位于103.88。3月1日，美元兑人民币在岸汇率较2月23日的7.20维持不变；离岸汇率上行约3基点至7.21。风险提示：需求改善不及预期，海外经济进入衰退。', 'content': \"The core view is that the capital situation is stable across the month. In overseas terms, there were no major changes in the monetary policies of the world's major central banks last week (February 26-March 1). The implied probability of a 25bp rate cut by the March FOMC in federal funds rate futures is 5%, and the probability of no rate cut is 95%. In terms of domestic liquidity, under the protection of the central bank's continuous net investment, funds continued to be balanced and loose last week, and were stable across the month. The center of short-end capital interest rates has risen, with an overall trend of first high and then low. Guosen's narrow liquidity high-frequency diffusion index increased marginally by 0.01 to 101.05 compared with the week before the holiday (February 19-February 23). Among them, the price indicator contributed -429% and the quantity indicator contributed 529%. The decline (tightening) of the price index was mainly caused by the deviation of the R/DR weighted interest rate after normalization for the whole week last week (7-day/14-day interest rate minus the policy interest rate for the same period) and the overall month-on-month upward increase in R001, supported by the downward trend in the weighted interest rate of interbank certificates of deposit. In terms of quantity, the central bank's reverse repurchase exceeded its quota last week, which provided support for quantitative indicators. This week, we need to pay attention to the disturbance of the following factors: interbank certificates of deposit expired for more than 500 billion yuan. Open market operations of the central bank: Last week (February 26-March 3), the central bank released a net liquidity fund of 737 billion yuan. Among them: a net investment of 737 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repurchases (427 billion yuan is due, 1,164 billion yuan is invested), and a net investment of 0 billion yuan is invested in 14-day reverse repurchases (000 million yuan is expired, and 0 billion yuan is invested). This week (March 4 to March 10), the central bank's reverse repurchase will expire at 1.164 billion yuan, of which 7-day reverse repurchase will expire at 1.164 billion yuan, and the 14-day reverse repurchase will expire at 0.0 billion yuan. As of this Monday (March 4), the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase net investment was -319 billion yuan, the 14-day reverse repurchase net investment was 0 billion yuan, and the OMO stock was 845 billion yuan. Inter-bank transaction volume: The average daily turnover of pledged repos in the inter-bank market last week was 6.44 trillion, a decrease of 0.64 trillion from the previous week (February 19-February 25, 7.09 trillion). Overnight repurchases accounted for 85.7%, a decrease of 1.6pct from the previous week (87.3%). Bond issuance: Net financing of government bonds last week was 72.06 billion yuan, and 192.88 billion yuan was planned to be issued this week, with net financing expected to be 5.55 billion yuan; net financing of interbank certificates of deposit last week was 56.75 billion yuan, and 26.61 billion yuan was planned to be issued this week, net financing The amount is expected to be -545.41 billion yuan; the net financing of policy bank bonds last week was 125.0 billion yuan, and 18.0 billion yuan is planned to be issued this week, and the net financing amount is expected to be -62.07 billion yuan; the net financing of commercial bank subordinated bonds last week was -40.00 billion yuan , this week plans to issue 0.0 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is expected to be -300 million yuan; last week, corporate bond net financing was 73.29 billion yuan (of which urban investment bond financing contributed about 54%), and this week it plans to issue 121.29 billion yuan, with net financing The amount is expected to be -133.43 billion yuan. Last Friday (March 1), the RMB CFETS basket exchange rate index rose 0.01 to 99.44 from the previous week (February 23). During the same period, the US dollar index fell 0.09 to 103.88. On March 1, the onshore exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was higher than that of the previous week (February 23). The 7.20 on February 23 remained unchanged; the offshore exchange rate rose by about 3 basis points to 7.21. Risk warning: Demand does not improve as expected, and overseas economies enter recession.\", 'authorid': UUID('7f0ba462-39fa-5efc-b2aa-f8b8339a39b2'), 'sentimentScore': 0.3278648294508457, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'HI3A5A9BILVLU9GG4S9H897OMRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:01 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'HI3A5A9BILVLU9GG4S9H897OMRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c2b27e0a-2cea-519e-856e-ee6a8f143cd8'), 'title': 'Macro daily newspapers: Pay attention to the government work report', 'author': 'Cai Shaoli, Gao Cong', 'orgName': '华泰期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80055521', 'orgSName': '华泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-05', 'encodeUrl': 'qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYFOjshjVoIydMqSvt7adbRE=', 'researcher': '蔡劭立,高聪', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000304033', '11000304231'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=qKiZJUUfH5/pz+PptX0jYFOjshjVoIydMqSvt7adbRE=', 'site': 'Huatai Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625451040_1.pdf?1709627511000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403051625451040_1.pdf?1709627511000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro daily newspapers: Pay attention to the government work report', 'originalAuthor': '蔡劭立,高聪', 'originalContent': '策略摘要商品期货：整体中性，关注芳烃系化工（EB、PX、TA）、生猪、贵金属等结构性买入套保机会；股指期货：逢低买入套保。核心观点市场分析关注政府工作报告。3月5日，两会期间将举办新闻发布会，并解读《政府工作报告》。近期国内市场情绪有所改善，2月23日，中央财经委员会第四次会议，研究大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新问题，研究有效降低全社会物流成本问题。其中，中央财政和地方政府联动，统筹支持设备更新和以旧换新值得进一步关注，目前汽车、家电等行业主要受益，以及近期6g概念也引起市场关注，对应工业品板块受益。2月20日，央行超预期下调5年期LPR利率25bp，与此同时1年期LPR维持不变，此举稳定地产市场预期信号强烈。随后国内股指和商品均表现偏强，目前核心在于节后复工复产进度，叠加今年3月4日和3月5日开幕的两会，宏观上关注政策预期和复工复产事实共振向上的可能性。节后第二周，商品交投仍清淡。黑色方面，钢厂原料补库不及预期，铁水产量小幅下滑，仍需关注复工复产进度；有色整体延续季节性累库趋势，下游需求平淡；能源短期受到俄乌冲突导致的炼厂加工量下降以及红海事件的支撑；化工板块芳烃线具有韧性，关注苯乙烯、PX、PTA的机会，目前处于驱动强，但估值亦偏高的状态，此外橡胶供给受限需求则逐步恢复，亦可以关注；农产品方面，节后猪价有所走强，关注远端供应短缺下的行情抢跑可能。贵金属方面，美联储沃勒“反扭曲操作”的相关言论带动美联储降息计价触底回升，结合3月议息会议或将讨论放缓QT，贵金属多配窗口重新打开。风险地缘政治风险（能源板块上行风险）；全球经济超预期下行（风险资产下行风险）；美联储超预期收紧（风险资产下行风险）；海外流动性风险冲击（风险资产下行风险）。', 'content': 'Strategy summary: Commodity futures: overall neutral, focusing on structural buying and hedging opportunities such as aromatic chemicals (EB, PX, TA), pigs, precious metals, etc.; stock index futures: buying on dips for hedging. The core point of view is that market analysis focuses on the government work report. On March 5, a press conference will be held during the two sessions and the \"Government Work Report\" will be interpreted. Domestic market sentiment has improved recently. On February 23, the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission was held to study the issue of large-scale equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods, and to study the issue of effectively reducing logistics costs for the whole society. Among them, the central government\\'s coordination with local governments to coordinate and support equipment updates and trade-ins deserves further attention. At present, the automobile, home appliance and other industries are mainly benefiting, and the recent 6G concept has also attracted market attention, corresponding to the industrial products sector. On February 20, the central bank lowered the 5-year LPR interest rate by 25bp beyond expectations. At the same time, the 1-year LPR remained unchanged. This move has a strong signal of stabilizing the real estate market. Subsequently, both domestic stock indexes and commodities performed relatively strongly. The current focus is on the progress of resumption of work and production after the holiday, superimposed on the two sessions that opened on March 4 and March 5 this year. From a macro perspective, attention is paid to the possibility that policy expectations and the facts of resumption of work and production will resonate upward. . In the second week after the holiday, commodity trading remained light. On the black side, steel mills\\' raw material replenishment fell short of expectations, and molten iron production declined slightly. We still need to pay attention to the progress of resumption of work and production; non-ferrous metals as a whole continued the seasonal inventory accumulation trend, and downstream demand was flat; energy was affected by the short-term decline in refinery processing volume caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As well as the support of the Red Sea incident; the aromatics line of the chemical industry sector is resilient. Pay attention to the opportunities of styrene, PX, and PTA. It is currently in a strong driving state, but the valuation is also on the high side. In addition, the demand for rubber supply is gradually recovering, and you can also pay attention to it. ; In terms of agricultural products, pig prices have strengthened after the holiday, and we are concerned about the possibility of a market jump due to remote supply shortages. In terms of precious metals, Fed Waller\\'s remarks about \"anti-distortion operations\" drove the Fed\\'s interest rate cut pricing to bottom out and rebound. Combined with the March interest rate meeting, which may discuss slowing down QT, the precious metals long-allocation window has reopened. Risks include geopolitical risks (upward risks for the energy sector); unexpected downturns in the global economy (downward risks for risky assets); unexpected tightening by the Federal Reserve (downward risks for risky assets); overseas liquidity risk impacts (downward risks for risky assets).', 'authorid': UUID('1f2a6e53-dc21-5b64-b53e-783c1fe16451'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6523384414613247, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '6RQPT33VAMBCITRT5QRS79AQ7RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '6RQPT33VAMBCITRT5QRS79AQ7RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7d828df4-9d13-503e-bf15-1b565f243c61'), 'title': 'U.S. Election Tracking: Super Tuesday Watch Guide', 'author': 'Zhang Jun, Gao Ming, Xu Dongshi', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ48PkMuauZ/xVc/ZgqKlLWI=', 'researcher': '章俊,高明,许冬石', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000262937', '11000185520'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ48PkMuauZ/xVc/ZgqKlLWI=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625400677_1.pdf?1709587978000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625400677_1.pdf?1709587978000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. Election Tracking: Super Tuesday Watch Guide', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,高明,许冬石', 'originalContent': '核心观点：一、选情跟踪：3月5日星期二，美国大选周期初选阶段最重要的一天即将到来，16个州将在“超级星期二”（SuperTuesday）的初选中进行投票或举行党团会议。其结果能够为成绩占优的候选人提供强大的动力，也可能使表现不佳的候选人因为缺乏足够的代表票而难以继续竞选，因此将直接影响到候选人在党内的代表票数和最终获得提名的可能性。历史上的“超级星期二”往往能够迅速缩小候选人的范围。与此同时，候选人也能获得更多的媒体曝光和公众关注，这对于他们的竞选策略和资金筹集都有重要影响。拜登方面，在2月28日密歇根州初选中虽然获得了80%支持的胜利，但有13%的选票选择“未承诺”（Uncommitted），以表达对拜登政府在巴以冲突态度上的不满。对于特朗普而言，在2月24日和28日分别赢得了南卡罗来纳州和密歇根州的党内初选，大概率锁定了党内提名，但目前在30多个州面临刑事、民事诉讼以及取消候选人资格的诉讼。法律危机会导致特朗普团队难以专心应对选举，并造成现金流危机。目前特朗普支持率在不同民调口径下均对拜登产生了优势，平均支持率为45%，高于拜登的43%。而拜登的执政满意度已经跌至40%以下，与前几任美国总统相比则处于较低的位置。二、关注经济政策：特朗普2.0将到来？拜登目前尚未系统性地提出下一任期政策计划，但大概率会延续目前的政策框架，包括继续推行大规模产业政策，推进与盟友等国家的外交联系，以及对低收入群体和学生贷款的支持等。而特朗普团队在本次竞选中陆续提出了一些政策计划，总体风格上延续了他在上个任期打出的贸易保护主义、亲近传统能源等理念。产业政策方面，特朗普可能会推翻拜登执政期间的不少成果。贸易政策方面，特朗普仍旧打算重演加关税戏码。税收政策方面，特朗普希望继续延长上一任期的措施，并进一步降低个人和企业税。财政政策方面，特朗普希望还清政府债务，但根据我们的测算，这一目标实现的难度非常大。三、大选年的资本市场表现如何？股票和黄金收益在过往的大选年较弱，S&P500在大选年和非大选年涨幅分别为8.63%和11.55%，黄金为3.25%和7.57%。美国2��期和10年期国债收益率来看，大选年稍高。选举日时点对于股市的影响有很强的不确定性。近些年来，美国大选的对资本市场的影响已不仅截止于结果当日，还需要考虑特朗普如果再次败选可能引发的激烈反应。由于担心类似于2021年1月6日国会山骚乱的事件再次发生，衍生品市场已经将11月的选举视为一个可能动荡的市场事件。总体来看，资本市场已经在为特朗普获胜或失利的不同情境做准备，这位商人总统很可能继续以出人意料的政策掀起市场波澜，但其“美国至上”、经济为主、看重股市的态度，也让不少美国资本市场参与者放心。随着大选周期的不断推进，我们的选情跟踪系列也还会带来更多关于大选年政治和经济走向和风险的分析。风险提示1.海外经济衰退的风险2.地缘政治的风险3.民调误差的风险4.选举超预期的风险', 'content': 'Core points: 1. Election tracking: Tuesday, March 5, the most important day in the primary stage of the U.S. election cycle is coming. 16 states will vote or hold caucuses in the \"Super Tuesday\" primaries. . The result can provide a strong impetus for candidates with superior performance, and may also make it difficult for candidates with poor performance to continue running due to lack of sufficient delegate votes. Therefore, it will directly affect the candidate\\'s number of delegate votes within the party and the final result. Likelihood of Nomination. Historically, Super Tuesday has tended to narrow the field of candidates quickly. At the same time, candidates can also gain more media exposure and public attention, which has an important impact on their campaign strategies and fund-raising. As for Biden, although he won the Michigan primary on February 28 with 80% support, 13% of the votes chose \"Uncommitted\" to express their disapproval of the Biden administration\\'s attitude towards the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. dissatisfaction. For Trump, he won the party primaries in South Carolina and Michigan on February 24 and 28 respectively, with a high probability of locking in the party nomination. However, he is currently facing criminal and civil lawsuits in more than 30 states. and proceedings to disqualify candidates. A legal crisis would make it difficult for the Trump team to focus on the election and create a cash flow crisis. Trump\\'s approval rating currently has an advantage over Biden under different polling calibers, with an average approval rating of 45%, higher than Biden\\'s 43%. Biden\\'s satisfaction with governing has dropped below 40%, which is at a lower level than previous U.S. presidents. 2. Pay attention to economic policies: Will Trump 2.0 come? Biden has not yet systematically proposed a policy plan for the next term, but there is a high probability that he will continue the current policy framework, including continuing to implement large-scale industrial policies, advancing diplomatic ties with allies and other countries, and improving low-income groups and student loans. Support etc. The Trump team has successively proposed some policy plans during this election, and the overall style continues the concepts of trade protectionism and closeness to traditional energy that he promoted in the last term. In terms of industrial policy, Trump may overturn many of the achievements made during the Biden administration. In terms of trade policy, Trump still plans to repeat the drama of increasing tariffs. In terms of tax policy, Trump hopes to continue to extend the measures of the previous term and further reduce personal and corporate taxes. In terms of fiscal policy, Trump hopes to pay off government debt, but according to our calculations, it is very difficult to achieve this goal. 3. How will the capital market perform in the election year? Stock and gold returns have been weak in past election years. The S&P500 rose 8.63% and 11.55% respectively in election years and non-election years, and gold rose 3.25% and 7.57%. Judging from the U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields, they are slightly higher in an election year. There is strong uncertainty about the impact of Election Day timing on the stock market. In recent years, the impact of the U.S. election on the capital market has not only ended on the day of the results, but also needs to consider the possible violent reactions if Trump loses the election again. Derivatives markets have viewed the November election as a potentially volatile market event amid fears of a recurrence of events similar to the Capitol Hill riots on January 6, 2021. Overall, the capital market is already preparing for different scenarios in which Trump wins or loses. The businessman president is likely to continue to make waves in the market with unexpected policies, but his \"America first\", economy-focused, and stock market-oriented approach This attitude also reassures many U.S. capital market participants. As the election cycle continues to advance, our election tracking series will also bring more analysis on the political and economic trends and risks in the election year. Risk warning 1. Risk of overseas economic recession 2. Risk of geopolitics 3. Risk of polling error 4. Risk of election exceeding expectations', 'authorid': UUID('82751e64-92c8-52a1-a134-71932205eb83'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8335809465497732, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3GAS72GDIMUNGQA5O44CV9G0C7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:07 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3GAS72GDIMUNGQA5O44CV9G0C7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6545d702-ce44-5fdf-b169-70d478a5f971'), 'title': 'Weekly report on major asset classes: As the two sessions approach, domestic equity assets continue to rise', 'author': 'Ding Peizhou', 'orgName': '国投安信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066669', 'orgSName': '国投安信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ7PCrWsFzIRnM+VzZ+ntMA0=', 'researcher': '丁沛舟', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000224020'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ7PCrWsFzIRnM+VzZ+ntMA0=', 'site': 'SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投安信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625399116_1.pdf?1709585656000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625399116_1.pdf?1709585656000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly report on major asset classes: As the two sessions approach, domestic equity assets continue to rise', 'originalAuthor': '丁沛舟', 'originalContent': '全球大类资产表现情况：股市震荡债市商品上涨2月26日—3月01日当周，美国1月PCE物价指数符合市场预期，市场美元降息预期变化不大。美元指数周度窄幅震荡，股市分化，债市商品上涨。综合来看，以美元计价，商品＞债＞股。国内大类资产表现情况：股债上涨商品震荡2月26日—3月01日当周，2月中采制造业PMI49.1%，低于前值。2月中国非制造业商务活动指数51.4%，好于前值。2月中国财新制造业PMI50.9%，较前一个月上涨0.1个百分点，与中采走势并不一致。经济内生动力仍需加强。股债上涨，商品震荡运行。综合来看，股＞债＞商品。大类资产价格展望：关注两会政策落地情况综合来看，当前市场进入相对平静阶段。对国内权益资产来说，重点关注两会召开后政策落地情况。风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期', 'content': \"Performance of major global asset classes: The stock market fluctuated and the bond market and commodities rose. In the week from February 26 to March 1, the U.S. PCE price index in January was in line with market expectations, and market expectations for a U.S. dollar interest rate cut did not change much. The U.S. dollar index fluctuated within a narrow range for the week, the stock market diverged, and bond market commodities rose. Taken together, in US dollars, commodities > bonds > stocks. Performance of major domestic assets: Stocks and bonds rose, commodities fluctuated. In the week from February 26 to March 1, the manufacturing PMI in February was 49.1%, lower than the previous value. China's non-manufacturing business activity index in February was 51.4%, better than the previous value. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in February was 50.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, which was inconsistent with the trend of China Mining. The endogenous driving force of the economy still needs to be strengthened. Stocks and bonds rose, and commodities fluctuated. Taken together, stocks > bonds > commodities. Outlook for major asset prices: Pay attention to the implementation of policies during the two sessions. Overall, the current market has entered a relatively calm stage. For domestic equity assets, focus on the implementation of policies after the two sessions. Risk warning: U.S. inflation data improves less than expected\", 'authorid': UUID('1b81edf7-fac6-5484-88a6-d9ef697a32ab'), 'sentimentScore': 0.4425932466983795, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'MG77OD9RJSM8HMJKCOTDMQT23BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:10 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'MG77OD9RJSM8HMJKCOTDMQT23BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5e38dfc9-b8ac-5ee8-b44d-6bae5d3ac7b5'), 'title': 'Encourage and guide a new round of large-scale equipment updates', 'author': 'Ye Yanwu, Yu Jie', 'orgName': '光大期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80103744', 'orgSName': '光大期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ5tFbHWM7+d4dOv4rTmFyrQ=', 'researcher': '叶燕武,于洁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000208423', '11000444556'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ5tFbHWM7+d4dOv4rTmFyrQ=', 'site': 'Everbright Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '光大期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625382519_1.pdf?1709569544000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625382519_1.pdf?1709569544000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Encourage and guide a new round of large-scale equipment updates', 'originalAuthor': '叶燕武,于洁', 'originalContent': '2月官方制造业PMI49.1，预期49.1，前值49.2；非制造业PMI51.4，预期50.7，前值50.7；综合PMI50.9，前值50.9。2月份，由于春节假日因素影响，制造业处于传统生产淡季，加之疫情防控平稳转段后企业员工假期返乡增多，企业生产经营受到较大影响，制造业市场活跃度总体有所下降，制造业PMI比上月略降0.1个百分点。产需指数一降一平。生产指数为49.8%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，企业生产活动有所放缓；新订单指数为49.0%，与上月持平。服务业景气回升。服务业商务活动指数为51.0%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，服务业扩张力度有所增强。从行业看，受春节假日等因素带动，与节日出行和消费密切相关的行业生产经营较为活跃。建筑业继续保持扩张。受春节假期及低温雨雪天气等因素影响，建筑业商务活动指数为53.5%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，仍位于扩张区间，建筑业总体延续增长态势。政策方面，3月1日召开的国务院常务会议审议通过《推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案》，并作出全面部署。具体方面，有序推进重点行业设备、建筑和市政基础设施领域设备、交通运输设备和老旧农业机械、教育医疗设备等更新改造，积极开展汽车、家电等消费品以旧换新，形成更新换代规模效应。整体来看，今年促消费政策在重点领域提前发力，有利于提振消费需求，鼓励家电设备的以旧换新对房地产链条商品消费也有一定拉动，对接下来政策的落地值得关注。', 'content': 'In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.1, which was expected to be 49.1, and the previous value was 49.2; the non-manufacturing PMI was 51.4, which was expected to be 50.7, and the previous value was 50.7; the comprehensive PMI was 50.9, and the previous value was 50.9. In February, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the manufacturing industry It is in the traditional off-season for production, and after the epidemic prevention and control has stabilized, the number of corporate employees returning home for holidays has increased, corporate production and operations have been greatly affected, and the overall activity of the manufacturing market has declined. The manufacturing PMI fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The production and demand index fell and flattened. The production index was 49.8%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and corporate production activities have slowed down; the new orders index was 49.0%, the same as the previous month. The service industry is recovering. The business activity index of the service industry was 51.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the expansion of the service industry has increased. From an industry perspective, driven by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, the production and operation of industries closely related to holiday travel and consumption are relatively active. The construction industry continues to expand. Affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday and low temperature, rain and snow weather, the construction industry business activity index was 53.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the expansion range, and the construction industry as a whole continued to grow. In terms of policy, the State Council executive meeting held on March 1 reviewed and approved the \"Action Plan for Promoting Large-Scale Equipment Updates and Trade-in of Consumer Goods\" and made comprehensive arrangements. In terms of specific aspects, we will orderly promote the upgrading and transformation of equipment in key industries, equipment in the construction and municipal infrastructure fields, transportation equipment, old agricultural machinery, educational and medical equipment, etc., and actively carry out the replacement of old consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances with new ones to create a scale effect of upgrading. Overall, this year\\'s consumption-promoting policies have been implemented in key areas in advance, which will help boost consumer demand. Encouraging the trade-in of home appliances will also have a certain boost to commodity consumption in the real estate chain. The implementation of the next policies deserves attention.', 'authorid': UUID('489b7577-bfb7-5d18-ad2f-fa790d25f98b'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8694409020245075, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OCVMF27OC2IKBCSTTL9R2CRDN7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:14 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OCVMF27OC2IKBCSTTL9R2CRDN7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('dea4cd5a-29b8-5ab6-9469-d7a0aabe1844'), 'title': 'The fundamental trend is stable, and the RMB moves forward in shock', 'author': '', 'orgName': '北京大学经济研究所', 'orgCode': '80446485', 'orgSName': '', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ4kn4xzslCCg4OuSaMagFr0=', 'researcher': '', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': '', 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ4kn4xzslCCg4OuSaMagFr0=', 'site': 'Peking University Institute of Economics', 'originalSite': '', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625382474_1.pdf?1709572143000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625382474_1.pdf?1709572143000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The fundamental trend is stable, and the RMB moves forward in shock', 'originalAuthor': '', 'originalContent': '预计2024年3月在7.05～7.25区间双向波动2024年2月，人民币汇率呈现震荡下跌趋势，在7.1006至7.2200区间内呈现双向波动的态势，美国经济数据强劲、美国CPI超预期反弹、中美利差倒挂和货币政策分化是影响2月人民币汇率走势的主要因素。近期继续受美国、欧元区CPI增速反弹影响，市场对欧美降息预期后移，使得人民币走势承压。与此同时，2月中国降准降息，5年期以上LPR下调25个基点至3.95%，中美利差或进一步扩大。基本面方面，2024年以来中国国内经济走势平稳，利多人民币走势。因此，预计2024年3月人民币汇率在7.05～7.25区间双向波动。一、市场回顾2024年2月，受到中美利差倒挂、美国经济数据好于预期、美降息时点预期推迟，叠加中国降准降息等因素影响，人民币汇率小幅下降，整体走势平稳，总体在7.1006至7.2200区间内双向波动。其中，人民币在岸汇率从7.1795跌至7.1985，累计下跌190个基点；人民币中间价从7.1039涨至7.1036，累计调涨3个基点；人民币离岸汇率从7.1862跌至7.2081，累计下跌219个基点。主要影响因素包括：第一，美国2024年1月的经济数据依然表现强劲，2月2日，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国1月非农就业人口增加35.3万人，近乎预期的2倍；美国2月Markit制造业PMI初值51.5，高于预期和前值50.7。第二，美国通胀再次超预期反弹。继2023年12月美国CPI同比增速超预期上涨后，2024年1月，美国CPI同比增长3.1%，再次高于预期的2.9%；国际原油价格震荡上行，2月布伦特原油现货价格平均值为83.94美元/桶，较1月环比上涨4.5%。超预期的经济数据、反弹的通胀及原油价格上涨，进一步加深了市场对美国降息时点推迟的预期。第三，国际货币政策方向方面，美国降息时点推迟，欧洲或6月启动降息。当地时间2月21日，美国联邦储备委员会发布的1月货币政策会议纪要显示，联邦基金利率可能已达峰值，但过早放松货币政策立场存在风险；尽管欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，“欧洲央行在通胀问题上尚未达到目标，必须努力地实现这一目标”，但欧洲央行管委会成员之一、希腊央行行长亚尼斯·斯托纳拉斯表示，“该央行面临的挑战比美联储更加严峻，而且预计首次降息在6月份”。从2月的内部环境来看，在稳经济政策的主力下，经济恢复继续，但经济内生修复动能仍待进一步加强。国内政策方面，中国人民银行决定自2024年2月5日起，下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点；中国2月LPR报价显示，1年期LPR报价持平于3.45%，5年期以上LPR下调25个基点至3.95%，创历史最大降幅。从2月的外部环境来看，中美利差保持倒挂，人民币依旧承压。截至2月29日，美国10年期国债收益率为4.25%，中国10年期国债收益率为2.3417%；美国1年期国债收益率为5.01%，中国1年期国债收益率为1.8364%。跨境资金方面，2月北向资金净流入607亿元，利多人民币。美元指数方面，受CPI超预期反弹影响，2月美元指数继续小幅上涨。总体来看，美国经济数据强劲、美国CPI超预期反弹、中美利差倒挂和货币政策分化等因素导致2月人民币总体呈现小幅下跌，在7.1006至7.2200区间内呈现双向波��态势。二、人民币汇率后市展望人民币汇率的走势是内外因素共同作用的结果。预计2024年3月人民币汇率保持震荡，震荡区间为7.05～7.25。从拉升因素看：第一，2024年欧美的降息预期。据英国《金融时报》2月4日报道，美联储主席鲍威尔2月4日在哥伦比亚广播公司的《60分钟》节目中表示，美联储的利率制定者仍预计今年将降息3次，每次约25个基点；欧洲方面，据LSEG的数据显示，当前交易员押注欧洲央行6月份开始降息的可能性为77.6%。第二，2月中国国内经济走势平稳，股市走出前期下跌的阴霾，上证指数从1月31日的2788.55点涨至2月29日的3015.17点上涨了8.1%。从压低因素看：第一，国内降息。继降准后，中国2月LPR报价显示，1年期LPR报价持平于3.45%，5年期以上LPR下调25个基点至3.95%，创历史最大降幅。第二，欧美降息时间推迟。近期美国、欧盟CPI增速超预期反弹，推迟了市场对欧美降息的预期，推动美元指数再度上涨，利空人民币。第三，中美利差保持倒挂。截止到2月29日，10年期美债收益率为4.25%，10年期国债收益率为2.3417%，中美利差持续倒挂，人民币承压。综合而言，中国国内经济走势平稳，欧美加息周期暂停，对人民币形成支撑。但国内外货币政策保持分化、中美利差持续倒挂等负面因素对未来人民币形成压力。预计2024年3月人民币汇率在7.05～7.25区间双向波动。', 'content': 'It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate in both directions in the range of 7.05 to 7.25 in March 2024. In February 2024, the RMB exchange rate will show a volatile downward trend, showing a two-way fluctuation in the range of 7.1006 to 7.2200. The U.S. economic data is strong, the U.S. CPI has rebounded beyond expectations, and Sino-U.S. The inversion of differentials and the divergence of monetary policies are the main factors affecting the trend of the RMB exchange rate in February. Recently, the market continues to be affected by the rebound in CPI growth in the United States and the Eurozone, and the market\\'s expectations for interest rate cuts in Europe and the United States have shifted back, putting pressure on the trend of the RMB. At the same time, China cut reserve requirements and interest rates in February, and the LPR over five years was lowered by 25 basis points to 3.95%. The interest rate gap between China and the United States may further widen. In terms of fundamentals, China\\'s domestic economic trend has been stable since 2024, which is bullish for the trend of the RMB. Therefore, the RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate in both directions in the range of 7.05 to 7.25 in March 2024. 1. Market Review In February 2024, affected by factors such as the inversion of the interest rate differential between China and the United States, better-than-expected U.S. economic data, the postponement of the U.S. interest rate cut, and China\\'s RRR cut and interest rate cut, the RMB exchange rate fell slightly, and the overall trend was stable. It fluctuates in both directions within the range of 7.1006 to 7.2200. Among them, the onshore RMB exchange rate fell from 7.1795 to 7.1985, a cumulative decrease of 190 basis points; the RMB central parity rate rose from 7.1039 to 7.1036, a cumulative increase of 3 basis points; the offshore RMB exchange rate fell from 7.1862 to 7.2081, a cumulative decline of 219 basis points. The main influencing factors include: First, the U.S. economic data in January 2024 is still strong. On February 2, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the U.S. non-farm employment population increased by 353,000 in January, nearly twice the expected rate. ; The preliminary value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in February was 51.5, higher than expected and the previous value of 50.7. Second, U.S. inflation rebounded again beyond expectations. Following the higher-than-expected year-on-year growth of U.S. CPI in December 2023, in January 2024, the U.S. CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, again higher than the expected 2.9%; international crude oil prices fluctuated upward, and the spot price of Brent crude oil in February averaged The value was US$83.94/barrel, an increase of 4.5% from January. Better-than-expected economic data, rebounding inflation and rising crude oil prices have further deepened market expectations for a delay in U.S. interest rate cuts. Third, in terms of the direction of international monetary policy, the timing of interest rate cuts in the United States has been postponed, and Europe may start to cut interest rates in June. On February 21, local time, the minutes of the January monetary policy meeting released by the U.S. Federal Reserve showed that the federal funds rate may have reached its peak, but there are risks in easing the monetary policy stance prematurely; although European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said, \" The European Central Bank has not yet reached its target on inflation and must work hard to achieve this goal,\" but Yanis Stonaras, president of the Bank of Greece and a member of the ECB\\'s Governing Council, said, \"The challenges facing the central bank are greater than The Fed is more severe and is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in June.\" Judging from the internal environment in February, the economic recovery continued with the main force of economic stabilization policies, but the endogenous recovery momentum of the economy still needs to be further strengthened. In terms of domestic policies, the People\\'s Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points starting from February 5, 2024; China\\'s February LPR quotation showed that the 1-year LPR quotation remained unchanged at 3.45%, and the LPR quotation for 5-year and above It was lowered by 25 basis points to 3.95%, the largest drop in history. Judging from the external environment in February, the interest rate gap between China and the United States remained inverted, and the RMB remained under pressure. As of February 29, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield was 4.25%, and the Chinese 10-year Treasury bond yield was 2.3417%; the U.S. 1-year Treasury bond yield was 5.01%, and the Chinese 1-year Treasury bond yield was 1.8364%. In terms of cross-border funds, the net inflow of northbound funds in February was 60.7 billion yuan, which was bullish for the RMB. In terms of the U.S. dollar index, affected by the unexpected rebound in CPI, the U.S. dollar index continued to rise slightly in February. Overall, factors such as strong U.S. economic data, an unexpected rebound in U.S. CPI, an inversion of Sino-U.S. interest rate differentials, and divergent monetary policies led to an overall slight decline in the RMB in February, with two-way fluctuations in the range of 7.1006 to 7.2200. 2. Outlook for the RMB exchange rate market outlook The trend of the RMB exchange rate is the result of the combined effect of internal and external factors. The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain volatile in March 2024, with the fluctuation range being 7.05 to 7.25. Looking at the factors that are driving the increase: First, the interest rate cut expectations in Europe and the United States in 2024. According to a report by the British \"Financial Times\" on February 4, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on CBS\\'s \"60 Minutes\" program on February 4 that the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate setters still expect to cut interest rates three times this year, each time by about 25%. Basis point; in Europe, according to LSEG data, traders are currently betting that the possibility of the European Central Bank starting to cut interest rates in June is 77.6%. Second, China’s domestic economy was stable in February, and the stock market emerged from the previous decline. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2,788.55 points on January 31 to 3,015.17 points on February 29, an increase of 8.1%. From the perspective of depressing factors: First, domestic interest rates are cut. Following the RRR cut, China\\'s February LPR quotations showed that the 1-year LPR quotation remained unchanged at 3.45%, and the 5-year and above LPR was lowered by 25 basis points to 3.95%, the largest drop in history. Second, interest rate cuts in Europe and the United States have been delayed. The recent higher-than-expected CPI growth rebound in the United States and the European Union has postponed market expectations for interest rate cuts in Europe and the United States, pushing the U.S. dollar index to rise again, which is negative for the RMB. Third, the interest rate gap between China and the United States remains inverted. As of February 29, the 10-year U.S. bond yield was 4.25%, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield was 2.3417%. The interest rate gap between China and the United States continued to be inverted, and the RMB was under pressure. On the whole, China\\'s domestic economy is on a stable trend, and the interest rate hike cycle in Europe and the United States is suspended, which provides support for the RMB. However, negative factors such as the divergence of domestic and foreign monetary policies and the continued inversion of interest rates between China and the United States will put pressure on the RMB in the future. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate in both directions in the range of 7.05 to 7.25 in March 2024.', 'authorid': UUID('0a68eb57-c88a-5f34-9e9d-27f85e68af4f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6583100333809853, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '882MPRLE8R13BTMBOCHQ9CTFTNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:17 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '882MPRLE8R13BTMBOCHQ9CTFTNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b5ba2c60-f538-5ccb-bbf8-6c917b1665fb'), 'title': 'Correction report: Different seasonality – February PMI comments', 'author': 'Yin Ruizhe', 'orgName': '国投证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80084302', 'orgSName': '国投证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ8nbLzsSx3+RPxKr2UcgiD8=', 'researcher': '尹睿哲', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000240446'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ8nbLzsSx3+RPxKr2UcgiD8=', 'site': 'SDIC Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625380984_1.pdf?1709567821000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625380984_1.pdf?1709567821000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Correction report: Different seasonality – February PMI comments', 'originalAuthor': '尹睿哲', 'originalContent': '制造业 PMI 临界值以下回落，非制造业继续回升。 在上个月短暂的弱回升之后，本月制造业 PMI 再度回落，已连续 5 个月运行在临界值以下。其中需求表现虽然仍弱但相对平稳，供给的大幅收缩是拖累PMI 的主要因素，生产指标大幅回落 1.5 个点至收缩区间。受假期影响，供货商配送时间也被明显拉长，但该指标回落 2 个点反而向上拉动 PMI 约 0.3 个点。其它分项指标多数回落，仅出厂价格和企业经营预期分别回升 1.1、 0.2 个点。非制造业在临界值以上延续回升趋势，尤其是服务业显著回升 0.9 个点带动非制造业 PMI 表现超预期。1. 不一样的季节性对比两组不一样的季节性对比。 作为一年中最特别的一个假期，春节当月经济表现往往呈现同样的规律，受假期影响制造业生产放缓，供给端收缩，而服务业却受益于此，需求集中释放。今年由于“8+1”的假期安排，出现史上最长春节假期，同时，正月初一至十五全部落在 2月内，假期人员返乡对本次 PMI 统计区间内的经济活动冲击被双重放大。具体从数据来看：生产 PMI 弱于季节性。 近十年（不考虑 2023 年，下同）春节所在月份生产指标均表现为回落，无一例外，平均回落幅度约 1.0 个点，而今年回落 1.5 个点明显弱于季节性。对这一特点的解读一方面是超长假期所致，另一方面需求表现平淡的情况下，生产转弱意味着供给过剩的压力或可稍微得到释放。服务业 PMI 强于季节性。 2013 年以来春节当月服务业 PMI 平均上升0.04 个点，而本月超季节性回升 0.9 个点。受春节假日等因素带动，与节日出行和消费密切相关的行业生产经营较为活跃，其中零售、铁路运输、道路运输、餐饮、生态保护及公共设施管理等行业商务活动指数位于 53.0 以上；航空运输、货币金融服务、文化体育娱乐等行业商务活动指数位于 60.0 以上高位景气区间。对于服务业的高景气度，春节期间的出游数据也有所体现，文旅部数据显示，今年春节期间，出游人次、出游花费、以及人均花费均实现大幅增长，超过疫情前的增长中枢。2. 产需差收敛内需出现反弹。 本月新订单 PMI 持平于上月，而新出口订单 PMI 回落0.9 个点，从“新订单-新出口订单” 的维度来观察内需变化，该指标在本月结束了前三个月持续的下行趋势，向上反弹约 0.9 个点。但值得注意的是，需求类指数仍然位于临界值以下，反映需求不足的企业占比超过 60%，需求的长期低迷也导致了生产端缓慢向其靠拢，前期持续处于高位的产需差终于有所收敛。企业生产安排不算积极。 在需求相对平稳的背景下，本月生产放缓带动去库节奏加快，原材料库存和产成品库存分别在临界值以下回落0.2、 1.5 个点。但同时采购量指标也在临界值以下明显回落 1.2 个点，虽然一定程度上是受到假期影响，但也部分反映企业对节后的需求判断以及据此作出的生产安排并不积极。3. 相对乐观的建筑业建筑业 PMI 虽有回落但仍然保持扩张。 受春节假期和低温雨雪天气等因素影响，本月建筑业商务活动指数较上月回落 0.4 个点，但仍然落在扩张区间。同时，新订单指数回升 0.6 个点，有利于节后开工。此外，反映基础建设投资需求的土木工程建筑业，商务活动指标和新订单指标较上月均有不同程度回升，均升至 60%以上，显示基建对建筑业的支撑力度仍然不小。节后开复工强于去年同期。 根据百年建筑网节后开复工调研数据，截止 2 月 27 日（农历正月十八），调研的全国 187 家建筑施工头部企业、 10094 个工地的开复工率达到 39.9%，农历同比增加 1.5 个百分点，劳务上工率 38.1%，农历同比下降 5.2 个百分点。其中，房地产项目开复工率 35.7%，环比增加 22.6 个百分点；劳务上工率 37.0%，环比增加 22.9 个百分点；非房地产项目开复工率 41.5%，环比增加28.6 个百分点；劳务上工率 38.4%，环比增加 22.4 个百分点。制造业 PMI 同比延续上月趋势，继续回落至-5.6%。 受春节假期影响，制造业与非制造业景气度明显分化，而节日效应减退，回归到正常的运转节奏后，更值得关注的是长期维度需求的变化。今年以来，货币政策总体仍然宽松， 1 月降准， 2 月超预期调降 LPR25 个基点，但地方专项债发行偏慢等因素也对年初的经济热度造成一定拖累，重点关注 3 月即将到来的重要会议对于经济的边际效应。风险提示： 统计口径误差更正原因：本文是对 3 月 1 日 PMI 点评报告的更正，更正了本期 PMI数据点评对应的时间， 将原“标题”中“1 月 PMI 数据点评”修正为“2月 PMI 数据点评', 'content': 'The manufacturing PMI fell below the critical value, and the non-manufacturing industry continued to rebound. After a brief weak rebound last month, the manufacturing PMI fell again this month and has been running below the critical value for five consecutive months. Among them, demand performance is still weak but relatively stable. The sharp contraction in supply is the main factor dragging down the PMI. The production indicator dropped sharply by 1.5 points to the contraction range. Affected by the holidays, supplier delivery times have also been significantly lengthened, but the 2-point drop in this indicator has actually pulled up the PMI by about 0.3 points. Most other sub-indicators fell, with only ex-factory prices and corporate operating expectations rising by 1.1 and 0.2 points respectively. The non-manufacturing industry continued its upward trend above the critical value. In particular, the service industry rebounded significantly by 0.9 points, driving the non-manufacturing PMI to exceed expectations. 1. Different seasonal comparisons. Two different seasonal comparisons. As the most special holiday of the year, economic performance during the Spring Festival month often follows the same pattern. Affected by the holiday, manufacturing production slows down and the supply side shrinks. However, the service industry benefits from this and demand is concentrated. This year, due to the \"8+1\" holiday arrangement, there will be the longest Spring Festival holiday in history. At the same time, the first to the fifteenth day of the first lunar month all fall within February. The impact of holiday workers returning home on economic activities within the statistical range of this PMI is doubled. . Specifically from the data point of view: the production PMI is weaker than seasonal. In the past ten years (excluding 2023, the same below), the production indicators in the Spring Festival month have all shown a decline, without exception, with an average decline of about 1.0 points, and this year\\'s 1.5-point decline is significantly weaker than seasonal. The interpretation of this feature is on the one hand due to the extremely long holiday, and on the other hand when demand is flat, weakening production means that the pressure of oversupply may be slightly relieved. Services PMI was stronger than seasonal. Since 2013, the service PMI has increased by an average of 0.04 points during the Spring Festival month, and this month saw a super-seasonal rebound of 0.9 points. Driven by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, the production and operation of industries closely related to holiday travel and consumption are relatively active. Among them, the business activity index of retail, railway transportation, road transportation, catering, ecological protection and public facilities management is above 53.0; air transportation, The business activity index of monetary and financial services, culture, sports and entertainment and other industries is in the high and prosperous range above 60.0. The high prosperity of the service industry is also reflected in the travel data during the Spring Festival. Data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism shows that during this year’s Spring Festival, the number of trips, travel expenditure, and per capita expenditure all achieved substantial growth, exceeding the growth center before the epidemic. 2. The gap between production and demand converged and domestic demand rebounded. This month\\'s new orders PMI remained unchanged from the previous month, while the new export orders PMI fell by 0.9 points. Looking at changes in domestic demand from the dimension of \"new orders - new export orders\", this indicator ended the downward trend in the previous three months this month. trend, rebounding upward by about 0.9 points. However, it is worth noting that the demand index is still below the critical value, with more than 60% of companies reflecting insufficient demand. The long-term sluggish demand has also led to the production side slowly moving closer to it. The gap between production and demand that continued to be high in the early stage has finally been resolved. converged. Enterprise production arrangements are not positive. Against the background of relatively stable demand, the slowdown in production this month has accelerated the pace of destocking, with raw material inventory and finished product inventory falling below the critical value by 0.2 and 1.5 points respectively. However, at the same time, the purchase volume indicator also dropped significantly by 1.2 points below the critical value. Although it was affected to a certain extent by the holidays, it also partially reflected that the company\\'s judgment on post-holiday demand and the production arrangements made accordingly were not active. 3. Relatively optimistic construction industry. Although the PMI of the construction industry has declined, it still maintains expansion. Affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday and low temperatures, rain and snow, the construction industry business activity index fell 0.4 points this month from the previous month, but still fell within the expansion range. At the same time, the new orders index rebounded by 0.6 points, which is conducive to the start of construction after the holiday. In addition, in the civil engineering construction industry, which reflects the demand for infrastructure investment, the business activity indicators and new order indicators have rebounded to varying degrees from the previous month, both rising to more than 60%, indicating that the support of infrastructure for the construction industry is still considerable. The resumption of work after the holiday is stronger than the same period last year. According to the post-holiday resumption of work survey data from the Centennial Construction Network, as of February 27 (the eighteenth day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of 187 leading construction companies and 10,094 construction sites across the country reached 39.9%, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year in the lunar calendar percentage points, and the labor employment rate was 38.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2 percentage points. Among them, the resumption rate of real estate projects was 35.7%, an increase of 22.6 percentage points from the previous month; the labor availability rate was 37.0%, an increase of 22.9 percentage points from the previous month; the resumption rate of non-real estate projects was 41.5%, an increase of 28.6 percentage points from the previous month; the labor availability rate was 38.4% , a month-on-month increase of 22.4 percentage points. The manufacturing PMI continued the trend from last month and continued to fall to -5.6% year-on-year. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the prosperity of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries has clearly differentiated, and the holiday effect has subsided. After returning to the normal operating rhythm, what is more worthy of attention is the change in long-term demand. Since the beginning of this year, monetary policy has generally remained loose. The reserve requirement ratio was lowered in January and the LPR was lowered by 25 basis points more than expected in February. However, factors such as the slow issuance of local special bonds also caused a certain drag on the economic heat at the beginning of the year. Focus on the upcoming March The marginal effect of important meetings on the economy. Risk warning: Reason for correction of errors in statistical caliber: This article is a correction to the PMI comment report on March 1. It corrects the time corresponding to the PMI data comment in this issue and corrects the \"January PMI data comment\" in the original \"title\" to \"2 Monthly PMI data comments', 'authorid': UUID('478f37d9-f18b-5f6f-b9fa-64f8b0f1f90f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9651264771819115, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '0E1F9DO15KGP6QDDFUOJR5VHJ7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:21 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '0E1F9DO15KGP6QDDFUOJR5VHJ7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a4a3df50-269f-51c5-97cc-cca3b4399ddf'), 'title': 'Overseas Weekly: Pay attention to overseas financial reporting season', 'author': 'Yi Yongjian, Xu Yiwen, Chai Mengting, Li Huayi', 'orgName': '民生证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000038', 'orgSName': '民生证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZyVVGDyK2STLWjg2jnoaSXA=', 'researcher': '易永坚,徐熠雯,柴梦婷,李华熠', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000317034', '11000404332', '11000449040', '11000415535'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZyVVGDyK2STLWjg2jnoaSXA=', 'site': 'Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '民生证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625381112_1.pdf?1709567821000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625381112_1.pdf?1709567821000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas Weekly: Pay attention to overseas financial reporting season', 'originalAuthor': '易永坚,徐熠雯,柴梦婷,李华熠', 'originalContent': '本期观点&投资建议：1）继续推荐教培，从2023年年末各类教培政策来看，维持“保护合法，打击非法”的基调；从近期新东方、好未来披露的季报来看，景气度确定延续。我们认为教培是未来2年少有的边际向上赛道，值得重视。我们继续推荐新东方，继续关注好未来、学大教育，同时建议关注正在发生积极变化的高途。2）开始重视有回购&大股东增持的互联网龙头的估值修复，参考OTA龙头携程最新财报超预期表现，我们认为中国互联网企业的价值需重估。消费&教育，1）消费：携程作为OTA龙头，国内业务稳健，出境业务复苏优于行业，国际业务有望带来增量，建议关注。咖啡行业格局优化，瑞幸龙头地位有望得到进一步巩固，建议关注天气转暖及旺季临近带来的量价变化。2）K12教培：校外培训行业监管不断清晰，国家支持非学科培训等高质量发展，监管基调为保护合规、打击违法、总量控制。“双减”后留存机构拥有存量网点优势、教研优势、资金优势，监管环境边际好转下，非学科等转型业务逐步起量，传统业务逐步恢复。推荐新东方，积极关注好未来、学大教育、高途、思考乐教育、卓越教育集团。科技互联网，1）电商零售：阿里巴巴集团主席蔡崇信接受采访时指出，随着架构重组和新管理层的到位，阿里对能够成为中国顶级电子商务企业之一更具信心，建议关注阿里巴巴。2）长短视频：爱奇艺发布23Q4及2023全年财报，23Q4利润超预期，2023创史上最佳年度业绩，首年实现GAAP口径净利润转正，建议积极关注。短视频：a）电商业务增速较高，泛货架创增量；b）广告持续修复，内循环广告增速高；c）本地生活等新业态有望打开新成长空间。盈利侧：部分中短视频企业开始靠近盈利目标实现的时间节点，未来核心关注收入增长带来的盈利杠杆驱动利润释放，建议关注快手、哔哩哔哩。新股初识：1）递交招股书：①港股：8家，闪回科技；EDA；方舟云康；天聚地合；中和农信；上海挚达；上海重塑能源集团；BelleFashion；②美股：无。2）获备案通知书：①港股：沪上阿姨；康乐卫士。②美股：无。3）成功上市：①港股：无；②美股：无。风险提示：消费复苏不及预期，政策监管风险，行业竞争加剧风险，公司业务发展不及预期', 'content': 'Views & investment suggestions for this issue: 1) Continue to recommend education and training. Judging from the various education and training policies at the end of 2023, the tone of \"protecting the legal and cracking down on the illegal\" is maintained; judging from the recent quarterly reports disclosed by New Oriental and TAL, the prosperity Determine the continuation. We believe that education and training is a rare marginal upward track in the next two years and deserves attention. We continue to recommend New Oriental, continue to pay attention to TAL and Xueda Education, and also recommend paying attention to Gaotu, which is undergoing positive changes. 2) Begin to pay attention to the valuation restoration of Internet leaders with buybacks and major shareholder increases. With reference to the latest financial report of OTA leader Ctrip that exceeded expectations, we believe that the value of Chinese Internet companies needs to be revalued. Consumption & Education, 1) Consumption: As the leader of OTAs, Ctrip’s domestic business is stable, its outbound business has recovered better than the industry, and its international business is expected to bring growth. It is recommended to pay attention. The coffee industry structure is optimized, and Luckin\\'s leading position is expected to be further consolidated. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in volume and price brought about by the warmer weather and the approaching peak season. 2) K12 education and training: The supervision of the off-campus training industry continues to be clear. The state supports high-quality development such as non-disciplinary training. The regulatory tone is to protect compliance, crack down on violations, and control total volume. The remaining institutions after the \"double cuts\" have the advantages of existing outlets, teaching and research advantages, and financial advantages. With the regulatory environment improving marginally, non-disciplinary and other transformation businesses have gradually increased in volume, and traditional businesses have gradually recovered. Recommend New Oriental, and actively pay attention to TAL, Xueda Education, Gaotu, Sile Education, and Excellence Education Group. Technology Internet, 1) E-commerce retail: Alibaba Group Chairman Tsai Chongxin pointed out in an interview that with the restructuring of the structure and the new management in place, Alibaba is more confident in becoming one of China\\'s top e-commerce companies, and it is recommended to pay attention to Alibaba. 2) Long and short videos: iQiyi released its 23Q4 and 2023 full-year financial reports. 23Q4 profits exceeded expectations, 2023 achieved the best annual performance in history, and achieved positive GAAP net profit in the first year. It is recommended to pay active attention. Short video: a) E-commerce business has a high growth rate, and general shelves have created new growth; b) Advertising continues to be repaired, and internal circulation advertising has a high growth rate; c) New business formats such as local life are expected to open up new growth space. Profit side: Some short and medium video companies are beginning to approach the time point of achieving their profit targets. In the future, they will focus on the profit leverage brought by revenue growth to drive profit release. It is recommended to pay attention to Kuaishou and Bilibili. First introduction to new stocks: 1) Submit prospectus: ①Hong Kong stocks: 8, Flashback Technology; EDA; Ark Yunchang; Tianjudihe; Zhonghe Rural Credit Union; Shanghai Zhida; Shanghai Reshaping Energy Group; BelleFashion; ②US stocks :none. 2) Received registration notice: ①Hong Kong stocks: Shanghai Auntie; Leisure Guardian. ②US stocks: None. 3) Successfully listed: ① Hong Kong stocks: None; ② U.S. stocks: None. Risk warning: Consumption recovery is less than expected, policy regulatory risks, industry competition risks intensify, company business development is less than expected', 'authorid': UUID('dd4e41db-8f33-5fde-9fa1-d93cc4b11ef4'), 'sentimentScore': 0.3219725554808974, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '499ACJ68CU8LCNNAAJNCEO0FBVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:27 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '499ACJ68CU8LCNNAAJNCEO0FBVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d9c9753b-7803-5a4b-8f1a-357e37a12aa9'), 'title': 'Comments on February PMI data: Overall slight decline, production and demand performance differentiated', 'author': 'Xu Chao, Wan Qi', 'orgName': '太平洋证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80050806', 'orgSName': '太平洋', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZyq+RsQSitBg3kyBE1skKWw=', 'researcher': '徐超,万琦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249881', '11000454339'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZyq+RsQSitBg3kyBE1skKWw=', 'site': 'Pacific Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '太平洋', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625381084_1.pdf?1709568077000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625381084_1.pdf?1709568077000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February PMI data: Overall slight decline, production and demand performance differentiated', 'originalAuthor': '徐超,万琦', 'originalContent': '中国2月制造业PMI指数49.1%，预期49.1%，前值49.2%。中国2月非制造业PMI指数51.4%，预期50.7%，前值50.7%。01生产活跃度季节性调整，制造业PMI小幅回落2月制造业PMI持续处于收缩区间，向下略有调整，相比上月小幅下行0.1个百分点至49.1%，持平于市场预期。多数细分项均有边际回落，其中春节假期背景下生产指数的季节性调整是本月PMI回落的主因。整体而言PMI数据显示出2月份国内经济承压的情况尚未出现明显好转。生产季节性回落，需求维持平稳态势。2月生产指数录得49.8%（前值51.3%），边际转弱且重回荣枯线以下，主要受2月春节假期影响，生产活跃度因工人返乡过年有所下行，以往春节假期月份也多出现这一季节性调整。与生产相关的其他分项指标也侧面印证本月生产景气回落的情况:一则原材料库存指数在临界水平以下持续收缩，延续去库存；二则采购量指数同样较上月小幅下行，表明本月企业生产以消耗旧有原材料为主；三则本月从业人员指数相比上月下降0.1个百分点。需求方面，2月新订单指数与上月持平，均为49%，就其结构而言，新出口订单边际回落相对明显，较前值下行了0.9个百分点，内需则略有回升，但考虑到本月反映市场需求不足的制造业企业比重超过61%，需求不足的压力依旧存在。具体行业方面，高技术制造业和消费品制造业需求相对较强大中型企业表现优于小型企业。2月大型企业PMI持续运行在扩张区间，中型企业较前值也边际上行0.2个百分点。相比而言，小型企业的边际调整则更为明显，PMI指数仅录得46.4%（前值47.2%），且产需双降，生产指数及新订单指数在收缩区间内进一步下行。02服务带动非制造业进一步扩张2月非制造业商务活动指数为51.4%，较上月上行0.7个百分点，持续运行在扩张区间，高于市场预期。绝对水平而言，服务业及建筑业本月均持续扩张，从边际变化上来看，服务业扩张速度进一步加快，是本月非制造业指数的主要贡献项。假期刺激下服务业加快扩张。2月服务业PMI为51%，相比1月份上行0.9个百分点，本月服务业景气的回升主要受到春节假期出行及消费相关行业扩张的影响。零售、铁路运输、道路运输、餐饮、生态保护及公共设施管理等行业活动指数超53.0%；航空运输、货币金融服务、文化体育娱乐等行业位于60.0%以上。建筑业因春节及施工进度较慢的影响边际放缓。2月建筑业PMI指数为53.5%，基建拉动之下建筑业指数仍高于临界水平，但扩张速度放缓，主要受到两方面的影响：一是本月春节假期影响建筑业施工；二是剔除假期影响，今年施工进度本身就偏慢。以农历口径对比近几年节后开复工率及劳务上工率，今年的数据表现偏弱，相应拖累建筑业景气。', 'content': \"China's manufacturing PMI index in February was 49.1%, expected 49.1%, and the previous value was 49.2%. China's non-manufacturing PMI index in February was 51.4%, expected 50.7%, and the previous value was 50.7%. 01 Seasonal adjustment of production activity, manufacturing PMI fell slightly. The manufacturing PMI in February continued to be in the contraction range, with a slight downward adjustment. It dropped slightly by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month to 49.1%, which was the same as market expectations. Most subdivisions have experienced marginal declines. Among them, the seasonal adjustment of the production index in the context of the Spring Festival holiday is the main reason for this month's PMI decline. Overall, the PMI data shows that the domestic economy was under pressure in February and has not yet improved significantly. Production fell seasonally and demand remained stable. The production index recorded 49.8% in February (the previous value was 51.3%). The margin weakened and returned to below the boom-bust line. It was mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February. The production activity declined due to workers returning home for the New Year. In the past Spring Festival holiday months, This seasonal adjustment often occurs. Other sub-indicators related to production also confirm the decline in the production boom this month: one is that the raw material inventory index continues to shrink below the critical level, and destocking continues; the other is that the purchase volume index also fell slightly from the previous month, indicating that this month Enterprise production mainly consumes old raw materials; the three employment indexes this month decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month. On the demand side, the new orders index in February was the same as last month, both at 49%. In terms of structure, the marginal decline in new export orders was relatively obvious, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous value. Domestic demand rebounded slightly, but considering This month, the proportion of manufacturing companies reporting insufficient market demand exceeded 61%, and the pressure of insufficient demand still exists. In terms of specific industries, high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing have relatively strong demand, with medium-sized enterprises performing better than small enterprises. In February, the PMI of large enterprises continued to operate in the expansion range, and medium-sized enterprises also showed a marginal increase of 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous value. In comparison, the marginal adjustment of small enterprises was more obvious, with the PMI index recording only 46.4% (previous value 47.2%), and both production and demand fell. The production index and new orders index further declined within the contraction range. 02 Services drive further expansion of non-manufacturing industries. The non-manufacturing business activity index in February was 51.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. It continues to operate in the expansion range and is higher than market expectations. In absolute terms, both the service industry and the construction industry continued to expand this month. From a marginal perspective, the expansion of the service industry further accelerated and was the main contributor to the non-manufacturing index this month. The service industry accelerated its expansion under the holiday stimulus. The PMI of the service industry in February was 51%, up 0.9 percentage points from January. The rebound in the service industry this month was mainly affected by the expansion of travel and consumption-related industries during the Spring Festival holiday. The activity index of industries such as retail, railway transportation, road transportation, catering, ecological protection and public facilities management exceeds 53.0%; the air transportation, monetary and financial services, culture, sports and entertainment and other industries are above 60.0%. The construction industry is experiencing a marginal slowdown due to the impact of the Spring Festival and slow construction progress. The PMI index of the construction industry in February was 53.5%. Driven by infrastructure, the construction industry index is still above the critical level, but the expansion rate has slowed down, mainly affected by two aspects: first, the Spring Festival holiday this month affected the construction industry; second, the elimination of Due to the holiday, the construction progress this year is slow. Comparing the post-holiday work resumption rate and labor availability rate in recent years based on the lunar calendar, this year's data performance is weak, which has accordingly dragged down the construction industry's prosperity.\", 'authorid': UUID('449742b5-b0f3-5c56-92a0-5cc455ba4318'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9635947728529572, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'UO41B38B7TEGFK1N7OJENI2RPRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:29 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'UO41B38B7TEGFK1N7OJENI2RPRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('14f8ea6a-0327-54aa-8b40-5353658a12d2'), 'title': 'Comments on February PMI data: The manufacturing industry is generally stable and the decline is mainly due to seasonality', 'author': 'Du Zhengzheng', 'orgName': '国开证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000113', 'orgSName': '国开证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ8xgmZHAiLjxHdcDMRb73Pc=', 'researcher': '杜征征', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000174292'], 'count': 1, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ8xgmZHAiLjxHdcDMRb73Pc=', 'site': 'China Development Bank Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国开证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625379474_1.pdf?1709566201000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625379474_1.pdf?1709566201000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February PMI data: The manufacturing industry is generally stable and the decline is mainly due to seasonality', 'originalAuthor': '杜征征', 'originalContent': '内容提要：2 月中国综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.9%，持平 1 月；制造业PMI 指数为 49.1%，环比回落 0.1 个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为 51.4%，环比回升 0.7 个百分点。制造业 PMI 总体平稳。2 月制造业 PMI 环比符合季节性特征，回落主因在于假期因素。主要分项指标中除了新订单持平外均有所回落。综合 1-2 月情况看，今年环比好于历史均值，PMI 总体平稳。生产端季节性放缓。从中观高频数据看，节后生产恢复情况好于 2023 年农历同期，若未来需求稳定复苏则供给端恢复会有所加快，后期需观察出口增速变化影响。内需改善推动总需求保持稳定。2 月新订单指数持平 1 月，无论是从当月看还是合并 1-2 月看， 其环比表现均好于历史同期均值，需求总体上较为稳定。不过，2 月反映需求不足的企业占比超过 60%（近 5 个月均在 60%左右徘徊），需求不足问题仍然突出。大、中型企业景气度稳定，小企业回落。其中，小型企业受春节假日影响更为明显，生产经营活动放缓。企业预期有所回暖。2 月生产经营活动预期指数环比回升0.2 个百分点至 54.2%，表明企业对春节后市场发展信心有所增强。综合来看，剔除季节性因素后制造业 PMI 总体平稳，但需求不足问题尚存。考虑到当前经济复苏基础仍需夯实，未来可能会加强政府投资对企业产需的带动作用， 进一步巩固经济回升向好态势。风险提示： 央行超预期调控， 通胀超预期， 贸易摩擦升温，金融市场波动加大，经济下行压力增大，国内外疫情超预期变化风险，中美关系全面恶化风险，国际经济形势急剧恶化，俄乌冲突升级风险，台海局势不确定性风险，海外黑天鹅事件等。', 'content': \"Executive summary: China's comprehensive PMI output index was 50.9% in February, unchanged from January; the manufacturing PMI index was 49.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.4%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing PMI was generally stable. The manufacturing PMI in February was in line with seasonal characteristics month-on-month, and the decline was mainly due to holiday factors. Except for new orders, all major sub-indicators fell. Based on the situation from January to February, this year’s month-on-month performance is better than the historical average, and the PMI is generally stable. There is a seasonal slowdown on the production side. Judging from the mesoscopic high-frequency data, the post-holiday production recovery is better than the same period in the lunar calendar in 2023. If demand recovers steadily in the future, the supply-side recovery will accelerate. The impact of changes in export growth needs to be observed in the later period. Improved domestic demand pushed aggregate demand to remain stable. The new orders index in February was unchanged from January. Whether looking at the current month or combining January and February, its month-on-month performance was better than the historical average for the same period, and demand was generally relatively stable. However, the proportion of companies reporting insufficient demand accounted for more than 60% in February (it has hovered around 60% in the past five months), and the problem of insufficient demand is still prominent. The prosperity of large and medium-sized enterprises is stable, while that of small enterprises is declining. Among them, small enterprises were more obviously affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and their production and operation activities slowed down. Business expectations are picking up. The expectation index for production and operating activities in February rose 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to 54.2%, indicating that companies have increased confidence in market development after the Spring Festival. Taken together, after excluding seasonal factors, the manufacturing PMI is generally stable, but the problem of insufficient demand still exists. Considering that the foundation for the current economic recovery still needs to be solidified, the role of government investment in driving corporate production and demand may be strengthened in the future, further consolidating the positive economic recovery. Risk warning: The central bank controls more than expected, inflation exceeds expectations, trade frictions heat up, financial market volatility increases, economic downward pressure increases, the risk of unexpected changes in domestic and foreign epidemics, the risk of overall deterioration of Sino-US relations, the international economic situation deteriorates sharply, Russia Risks of escalation of conflict in Ukraine, risks of uncertainty in the situation in the Taiwan Strait, overseas black swan events, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('3890c2bb-63b7-56c5-88be-afd5fb830952'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9454255029559135, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'PV1JK4E1URF0VI0NBJK3JHOEDVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:32 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'PV1JK4E1URF0VI0NBJK3JHOEDVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e4a7572d-f9e7-567b-9b95-a666db62a378'), 'title': 'Macro·Weekly Report: Domestic PMI trends diverge, US PCE is in line with expectations', 'author': 'Zheng Jianxin', 'orgName': '国贸期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80004615', 'orgSName': '国贸期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ3LadOYJJUsgmZvdDX9UOe4=', 'researcher': '郑建鑫', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245638'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ3LadOYJJUsgmZvdDX9UOe4=', 'site': 'Guomao Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国贸期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625379061_1.pdf?1709566395000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625379061_1.pdf?1709566395000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro·Weekly Report: Domestic PMI trends diverge, US PCE is in line with expectations', 'originalAuthor': '郑建鑫', 'originalContent': '观点展望后市：下周重要事件和数据来临，关注破局因素的出现。国内部分，一方面，政府工作报告对于经济和政策的定调，将会为未来一段时间经济发展指明方向，尤其是财政如何发力值得高度关注；另一方面，PSL连续净投放，“三大工程”等有望加速推进，关注“金三银四”旺季需求的释放。海外部分，1月PCE通胀走势符合预期，减缓了市场的担忧情绪，当前需要重点关注的是通胀和非农数据反弹的持续性，若下周公布的2月非农数据重回放缓趋势，那么市场的降息预期有望再度升温。地缘政治部分，俄乌冲突、巴以局势等对供应端仍有扰动，关注相关方谈判的结果。核心逻辑（1）本周国内商品持续震荡运行，一是，国内宏观预期和供需弱现实的博弈或愈发剧烈；二是，美国经济的强韧性与降息预��的反复造成了行情的混乱；三是，地缘政治、产量政策调整等供应端的扰动有所增多。（2）国内PMI走势分化。2月中采制造业PMI小幅回落至49.1%（前值49.2%），延续2023Q4以来的收缩状态；2月服务业PMI则小幅升至51.4%（前值50.7%）。2023年中央经济工作会议强调当前经济存在“有效需求不足”和“社会预期偏弱”等问题之后，财政、货币、金融、房地产等政策陆续发力，稳定市场预期的信号也接连出现。今年1月、2月PMI连续呈现环比企稳特征，这意味着政策已有初步效果。不过，当前经济仍面临房地产尚未企稳和外需走弱的压力，PSL连续净投放、五年期LPR利率下调是一个好的开始，或能助力房地产行业企稳，未来重点关注广义财政能否在减去化债影响后继续“净扩张”。（3）美国1月PCE走势符合预期，日本1月通胀高于预期。1）1月核心PCE同比回落至2.8%，PCE同比回落至2.4%，均符合市场预期，减缓了市场对通胀再超预期的担忧。由于此前已经公布的1月CPI和非农数据偏强，市场对PCE可能出现的反弹已有充分的预期，因此数据公布后并未对市场造成较大的波动。市场已对3月降息的预期做了修正：年初以来降息时点推后，且国债利率大幅上行。当前需要重点关注的是通胀和非农数据反弹的持续性，若下周公布的2月非农数据重回放缓趋势，那么市场的降息预期有望再度升温。2）根据欧盟委员会公布数据显示，欧元区2月经济景气指数为95.4，低于1月份的96.2以及预期96.6，连续三个月走低。3）日本1月整体CPI同比上涨2.2%，虽较前值2.6%有所放缓，但明显高于预期的1.9%。', 'content': 'Viewpoint: Looking forward to the market outlook: Important events and data will arrive next week, and attention will be paid to the emergence of disruptive factors. In the domestic part, on the one hand, the government work report sets the tone for the economy and policies, which will point out the direction for economic development in the future, especially how fiscal efforts are made, which deserves great attention; on the other hand, PSL has continued net investment, and the \"three major \"Project\" and other projects are expected to be accelerated, and attention will be paid to the release of demand in the \"Gold, Three, Silver and Four\" peak seasons. Overseas, the PCE inflation trend in January was in line with expectations, which alleviated market concerns. What needs to be focused on now is the sustainability of the rebound in inflation and non-agricultural data. If the February non-agricultural data released next week returns to the slowdown trend, Then the market\\'s interest rate cut expectations are expected to heat up again. In terms of geopolitics, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the situation between Palestine and Israel are still causing disruptions to the supply side. Pay attention to the results of negotiations between relevant parties. Core logic (1) Domestic commodities continue to fluctuate this week. First, the game between domestic macro expectations and the reality of weak supply and demand may become more intense; second, the resilience of the U.S. economy and repeated expectations of interest rate cuts have caused market chaos; third Yes, supply-side disturbances such as geopolitics and output policy adjustments have increased. (2) Domestic PMI trends are divergent. In February, the China Mining Manufacturing Manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 49.1% (previous value: 49.2%), continuing the contraction since 2023Q4; in February, the service industry PMI rose slightly to 51.4% (previous value: 50.7%). After the 2023 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that the current economy has problems such as \"insufficient effective demand\" and \"weak social expectations,\" fiscal, monetary, financial, real estate and other policies have been launched one after another, and signals to stabilize market expectations have also appeared one after another. In January and February this year, the PMI continued to show month-on-month stabilization characteristics, which means that the policy has had initial effects. However, the current economy is still facing the pressure of real estate not yet stabilizing and weakening external demand. The continuous net investment of PSL and the reduction of the five-year LPR interest rate are a good start, which may help the real estate industry stabilize. In the future, we will focus on whether the general finance can reduce the After eliminating the impact of debt, \"net expansion\" continued. (3) The trend of PCE in the United States in January was in line with expectations, and inflation in Japan in January was higher than expected. 1) Core PCE fell back to 2.8% year-on-year in January, and PCE fell back to 2.4% year-on-year, both in line with market expectations and alleviating market concerns about inflation exceeding expectations again. Since the CPI and non-agricultural data for January that had been previously announced were relatively strong, the market had full expectations for a possible rebound in PCE, so the data did not cause major fluctuations in the market after the data was released. The market has revised its expectations for an interest rate cut in March: the timing of interest rate cuts has been pushed back since the beginning of the year, and government bond interest rates have risen sharply. What needs to be focused on now is the sustainability of the rebound in inflation and non-agricultural data. If the February non-agricultural data released next week returns to a slowing trend, then the market\\'s expectations for an interest rate cut are expected to heat up again. 2) According to data released by the European Commission, the economic sentiment index of the Eurozone in February was 95.4, lower than the 96.2 in January and the expected 96.6, falling for three consecutive months. 3) Japan’s overall CPI rose by 2.2% year-on-year in January. Although it slowed down from the previous value of 2.6%, it was significantly higher than the expected 1.9%.', 'authorid': UUID('a9121ac9-9180-5a0d-b04f-77adb31c9370'), 'sentimentScore': 0.46767068933695555, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'T6V8JM1LHSA07IS0CO130UOHFFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:35 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'T6V8JM1LHSA07IS0CO130UOHFFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3580ad8a-d81b-56ad-a4bb-5cb26a5fca51'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: Domestic PMI is running weak, US PCE did not exceed expectations', 'author': 'Li Ting, Huang Lei, Gao Hui, Wang Gongjian', 'orgName': '金源期货', 'orgCode': '80055522', 'orgSName': '金源期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ5Jk75cXJvh31cvKWPhpAwk=', 'researcher': '李婷,黄蕾,高慧,王工建', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000207840', '11000210457', '11000428834', '11000369911'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ5Jk75cXJvh31cvKWPhpAwk=', 'site': 'Jinyuan Futures', 'originalSite': '金源期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625379076_1.pdf?1709566497000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625379076_1.pdf?1709566497000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: Domestic PMI is running weak, US PCE did not exceed expectations', 'originalAuthor': '李婷,黄蕾,高慧,王工建', 'originalContent': '核心观点海外方面，1月美国CPI超预期引发市场再度紧缩担忧，而最新公布的PCE并未超出市场预期，其中能源项跌幅扩大，食品项小幅回落，核心商品降幅收窄，而核心服务环比走强，超级核心通胀有所上行。2月ISM制造业PMI意外下行，产需双弱，就业转冷，物价放缓，但与超预期的Markit制造业PMI相背离，两者差异为3年来最高，后续保持关注。欧元区2月通胀略超预期，但趋势向下，1月失业率处于历史低位，较紧的就业市场及缓慢降温的通胀支持欧央行“不急于降息”。周五晚上美联储理事沃勒建议美联储提高短期美债占比，即“买短卖长”，叠加意外转冷的经济数据，美债收益率应声大跌触及2周低点，金价美股大涨。本周关注美国2月非农就业数据。国内方面，2月制造业PMI整体偏弱运行，受春节假期影响，产需延续双弱，内外需求均未好转，企业去库并不顺畅，库存周期的开启仍需时日。假期带动服务业回暖，建筑业景气处于往年同期低位，随着天气转暖有望回升。高频数据显示，开年地产反弹较弱，尽管LPR利率超预期下调，实际效果仍有待观察。本周两会召开，将定调全年经济目标及财政赤字率，关注是否会出台超预期的政策。风险因素：政策效果不及预期，地产修复不及预期，美国降息晚于预期，地缘政治冲突加剧。', 'content': 'Core Views Overseas, the US CPI exceeded expectations in January, triggering concerns about another tightening in the market. However, the latest PCE did not exceed market expectations. The decline in energy items expanded, the food items fell slightly, the decline in core commodities narrowed, and core services strengthened month-on-month. , super core inflation has risen. The ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell in February, with both production and demand weakening, employment turning cold, and prices slowing down. However, it deviated from the higher-than-expected Markit manufacturing PMI. The difference between the two was the highest in three years, so we will continue to pay attention to it in the future. Inflation in the Eurozone slightly exceeded expectations in February, but the trend was downward. The unemployment rate in January was at a historically low level. The tight job market and slowly cooling inflation support the European Central Bank\\'s \"not in a hurry to cut interest rates.\" On Friday night, Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested that the Fed increase the proportion of short-term U.S. debt, that is, \"buy short and sell long.\" Coupled with unexpectedly cold economic data, U.S. bond yields fell sharply and hit a 2-week low, and gold prices and U.S. stocks rose sharply. This week we will focus on the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for February. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in February was overall weak. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, production and demand continued to be weak. Neither domestic nor domestic demand improved. Enterprises were not able to destock smoothly, and it will still take some time for the inventory cycle to start. The holidays have led to a recovery in the service industry, and the construction industry is at a low level for the same period in previous years. It is expected to rebound as the weather gets warmer. High-frequency data shows that the real estate rebound in the beginning of the year is weak. Although the LPR interest rate has been lowered than expected, the actual effect remains to be seen. The two sessions will be held this week, where the full-year economic goals and fiscal deficit ratio will be set, and attention will be paid to whether policies that exceed expectations will be introduced. Risk factors: Policy effects are less than expected, real estate recovery is less than expected, U.S. interest rates are cut later than expected, and geopolitical conflicts intensify.', 'authorid': UUID('031c3f63-fc61-5961-a12a-0ada8999feda'), 'sentimentScore': -0.95469756051898, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '0DT77FJJ8A6R4EI9E0D01CF5V3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:38 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '0DT77FJJ8A6R4EI9E0D01CF5V3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9b96c033-b813-5a3a-ae7a-9d5a0d95679e'), 'title': 'February Global Economic Observation: Analysis of 2024 Federal Reserve Voting Committee Factions', 'author': 'Yan Xiang, Zhu Bin, Zhang Mengfei', 'orgName': '华福证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000065', 'orgSName': '华福证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ90t6JiSKw/7D/Sm+T3ttUQ=', 'researcher': '燕翔,朱斌,章孟菲', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000223033', '11000235035', '11000449858'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ90t6JiSKw/7D/Sm+T3ttUQ=', 'site': 'Huafu Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华福证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625378748_1.pdf?1709563051000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625378748_1.pdf?1709563051000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'February Global Economic Observation: Analysis of 2024 Federal Reserve Voting Committee Factions', 'originalAuthor': '燕翔,朱斌,章孟菲', 'originalContent': '投资要点：本月聚焦：2024美联储票委派系解析。2024年开年以来，随着各项经济数据的公布、美联储议息会议的召开和各个官员的发声，市场对美联储降息的乐观情绪逐渐减弱。从本轮加息-降息周期开始，美联储各官员在不同场合都发表了自己的观点，可以看出在美联储内部对未来利率走向存在几种不同的声音：在加息周期中，鹰派主张加息而鸽派主张保持利率稳定甚至降息；在降息周期中，鹰派主张延后降息时点和减少降息的幅度，反之则为鸽派，此外还存在对加息和降息态度模棱两可的中间派。我们在去年8月发布的报告《美联储的派系》中梳理了当时各个官员对是否应该继续加息所持的意见，而当前已经到了本轮加息-降息周期的后半程，市场对于何时降息、降息幅度等问题的讨论愈演愈烈，美联储内部各个官员对此亦持不同的观点。同时在2024年，FOMC中拥有投票权的票委也发生了更替，两位鹰派官员卡什卡利和洛根离开了FOMC，取而代之的是两位鸽派人士，即博斯蒂克和戴利。鸽派的古尔斯比也退出FOMC，而鹰派的梅斯特加入了，不过她将于6月退休。我们从美联储的架构出发，对各个官员的公开发言进行更新和梳理，总结了FOMC各个票委的派系。2月全球主要大类资产多为上涨。2月全球主要权益市场几乎全线上涨；全球长端利率走势不一；2月美元较人民币升值，美元指数上涨；2月大宗商品期货多数下跌。美国就业市场韧性较强。美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的1月新增非农就业人数为35.3万人，远高于市场预期的18��人，前值由21.6万人上修至33.3万人，11月非农就业人数从17.3万修正至18.2万，经过修正后，11月和12月的就业人数比之前公布的数据增加了12.6万人。美国劳工部公布的数据显示美国1月通胀超预期上行，同比升3.1%，市场预期升2.9%，前值升3.4%。欧洲制造业经济有所回升。2月欧元区制造业PMI值为46.1，低于前值46.6，服务业PMI为50.0，高于前值48.4。日本制造业PMI仍处于荣枯线以下。2月日本制造业PMI为47.20，低于前值48.0，连续9个月处于荣枯线以下。2月美债十年期隐含通胀预期上升至2.33%。而10年期中美利差倒挂幅度加深至190.83BP。风险提示：美联储加息超预期，地缘政治风险超预期。', 'content': 'Investment points: This month’s focus: Analysis of the 2024 Federal Reserve voting system. Since the beginning of 2024, with the release of various economic data, the convening of the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and the statements of various officials, the market\\'s optimism about the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate cut has gradually weakened. Since the beginning of this round of interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts, various Fed officials have expressed their opinions on different occasions. It can be seen that there are several different voices within the Fed regarding the future direction of interest rates: During the interest rate hike cycle, hawks advocated increasing interest rates. Doves advocate keeping interest rates stable or even cutting interest rates; during the interest rate cut cycle, hawks advocate delaying the timing of interest rate cuts and reducing the magnitude of interest rate cuts, while doves advocate the opposite. In addition, there are centrists who are ambiguous about interest rate increases and interest rate cuts. In the report \"Factions at the Fed\" released in August last year, we sorted out the opinions of various officials at that time on whether to continue to raise interest rates. Now that we have reached the second half of this round of interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts, the market has no idea when to cut interest rates. Discussions on issues such as interest rate cuts and the extent of interest rate cuts are intensifying, and various officials within the Federal Reserve also hold different views on this. At the same time, in 2024, the voting committee of the FOMC also changed. Two hawkish officials, Kashkari and Logan, left the FOMC and were replaced by two doves, namely Bostic and Daly. . The dovish Goolsby also left the FOMC, while the hawkish Mester joined, but she will retire in June. Starting from the structure of the Federal Reserve, we updated and sorted out the public statements of various officials, and summarized the factions of each FOMC voting committee. Most major global asset classes rose in February. Almost all major global equity markets rose in February; global long-term interest rates showed mixed trends; the U.S. dollar appreciated relative to the RMB in February, and the U.S. dollar index rose; most commodity futures fell in February. The U.S. job market is relatively resilient. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that 353,000 new non-farm jobs were added in January, much higher than market expectations of 180,000. The previous value was revised up from 216,000 to 333,000. Non-farm employment in November The number was revised from 173,000 to 182,000. After the revision, the number of people employed in November and December increased by 126,000 from the previously released data. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that U.S. inflation rose more than expected in January, rising by 3.1% year-on-year. Market expectations rose by 2.9%, and the previous value rose by 3.4%. The European manufacturing economy has rebounded. In February, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI was 46.1, lower than the previous value of 46.6, and the services PMI was 50.0, higher than the previous value of 48.4. Japan\\'s manufacturing PMI is still below the boom-bust line. Japan\\'s manufacturing PMI was 47.20 in February, lower than the previous value of 48.0, and has been below the boom-bust line for nine consecutive months. The implied inflation expectation for the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 2.33% in February. The inversion of the 10-year interest rate differential between China and the United States deepened to 190.83BP. Risk warning: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates more than expected, and geopolitical risks exceeded expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('8ca1f13c-5904-515d-b780-96d04864f029'), 'sentimentScore': -0.5912741608917713, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'G5K7BJQEIL5S5N49RN54N0ON4BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:40 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'G5K7BJQEIL5S5N49RN54N0ON4BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('51812570-e95a-5f36-8035-db744ffa8b15'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: The National Two Sessions are about to be held, and stable growth is worth looking forward to', 'author': 'Xia Haojie, Zhang Junfeng', 'orgName': '国信期货有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80095998', 'orgSName': '国信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ6v2whlcSmvL+1Gt2LjVevY=', 'researcher': '夏豪杰,张俊峰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000178175', '11000444234'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ6v2whlcSmvL+1Gt2LjVevY=', 'site': 'Guosen Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625377728_1.pdf?1709562161000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625377728_1.pdf?1709562161000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: The National Two Sessions are about to be held, and stable growth is worth looking forward to', 'originalAuthor': '夏豪杰,张俊峰', 'originalContent': '周一，2月26日。《粤港澳大湾区“跨境理财通”业务试点实施细则》自2024年2月26日起施行。周二，2月27日。根据中国证监会消息，《证监会召开资本市场法治建设座谈会》，会议表示，进一步完善中国特色证券期货执法司法体系，优化行刑衔接机制，加强执法司法高效协同，加大行政、民事和刑事立体追责力度，全面提升“零容忍”执法效能。周二，2月27日。根据住房城乡建设部消息，《住房城乡建设部关于做好住房发展规划和年度计划编制工作的通知》（简称《通知》）发布。《通知》要求，各地“根据人口变化确定住房需求，根据住房需求科学安排土地供应、引导配置金融资源，实现以人定房、以房定地、以房定钱，促进房地产市场供需平衡、结构合理，防止市场大起大落。', 'content': 'Monday, February 26th. The \"Details for the Implementation of the \"Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect\" Business Pilot in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will come into effect on February 26, 2024. Tuesday, February 27th. According to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the \"China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on the construction of the rule of law in the capital market\". The meeting stated that the securities and futures law enforcement and judicial system with Chinese characteristics will be further improved, the execution connection mechanism will be optimized, the efficient coordination of law enforcement and justice will be strengthened, and the administrative, civil and criminal aspects will be strengthened. Strengthen accountability and comprehensively improve the effectiveness of \"zero tolerance\" law enforcement. Tuesday, February 27th. According to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the \"Notice of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development on Preparing Housing Development Planning and Annual Plans\" (referred to as the \"Notice\") was released. The \"Notice\" requires that all localities \"determine housing needs based on population changes, scientifically arrange land supply according to housing needs, guide the allocation of financial resources, realize people determine housing, housing determines land, and housing determines money, and promote the balance and structure of supply and demand in the real estate market. Reasonable to prevent market ups and downs.', 'authorid': UUID('01badbb2-8ea2-5c81-9a71-801c82db5e24'), 'sentimentScore': 0.04336383379995823, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'UT462DVRBBGOJUI93VHRU8PLO3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:43 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'UT462DVRBBGOJUI93VHRU8PLO3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('61bcfa62-35a0-5b5b-9ef3-91a272f95863'), 'title': 'Comments on February PMI data: Spring Festival factors trigger fluctuations in manufacturing PMI values', 'author': 'Song Ippei', 'orgName': '东方财富证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000126', 'orgSName': '东方财富证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZxQ/aSpjN80AzyWUUSoIRlQ=', 'researcher': '曲一平', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000360738'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZxQ/aSpjN80AzyWUUSoIRlQ=', 'site': 'Oriental Fortune Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东方财富证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625377618_1.pdf?1709564539000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625377618_1.pdf?1709564539000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February PMI data: Spring Festival factors trigger fluctuations in manufacturing PMI values', 'originalAuthor': '曲一平', 'originalContent': '【事项】国家统计局数据显示，2024年2月份我国制造业PMI为49.1%，较1月下降0.1个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为51.4%，较1月提高0.7个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.9%，较1月持平。【评论】春节效应是制造业PMI回落的重要因素。历史上春节期间制造业处于淡季，当月制造业PMI数值通常低于前后一个月，加之2023年是疫情防控平稳转段后第一年，外出务工人员假期返乡增多，企业生产经营受到的冲击大于往年，造成制造业市场活跃度下降。不同企业景气度分化明显。分行业看，高技术制造业连续4个月保持在扩张区间，高耗能制造业继续位于收缩区间。分企业规模看，大型企业继续位于临界值以上，中型企业景气度边际改善，小型企业在临界值下持续收缩旅游出行消费热度提升，支撑服务业PMI景气度上行。受益于春节假日等因素带动，与节日出行和消费密切相关的行业生产经营较为活跃，2月份服务业商务活动指数边际上行。其中，零售、铁路运输、道路运输、餐饮、生态保护及公共设施管理等行业商务活动指数位于53.0%以上；航空运输、货币金融服务、文化体育娱乐等行业商务活动指数位于60.0%以上高位景气区间，服务业扩张力度增强。【风险提示】海外通胀下行进度偏慢海外需求回落超预期', 'content': '[Matter] Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that my country’s manufacturing PMI in February 2024 was 49.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from January; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from January; the comprehensive PMI output The exit index was 50.9%, unchanged from January. [Comment] The Spring Festival effect is an important factor in the decline of manufacturing PMI. Historically, the manufacturing industry has been in the off-season during the Spring Festival, and the manufacturing PMI value of that month is usually lower than that of the month before and after. In addition, 2023 is the first year after the epidemic prevention and control has stabilized, and more migrant workers have returned home during the holidays, which has affected the production and operation of enterprises. It is larger than previous years, resulting in a decrease in manufacturing market activity. There are obvious differences in the prosperity of different enterprises. In terms of industries, the high-tech manufacturing industry has remained in the expansion range for four consecutive months, while the high-energy-consuming manufacturing industry has continued to be in the contraction range. In terms of enterprise size, large enterprises continue to be above the critical value, the prosperity of medium-sized enterprises has improved marginally, and small enterprises have continued to shrink under the critical value, and the popularity of tourism and travel consumption has increased, supporting the upward trend of the PMI prosperity of the service industry. Benefiting from factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, the production and operation of industries closely related to holiday travel and consumption are relatively active, and the service industry business activity index rose marginally in February. Among them, the business activity index of industries such as retail, railway transportation, road transportation, catering, ecological protection and public facilities management is above 53.0%; the business activity index of air transportation, monetary and financial services, culture, sports and entertainment and other industries is in the high and prosperous range of above 60.0% , the expansion of the service industry has been strengthened. [Risk Warning] Overseas inflation is slowing down and overseas demand has fallen more than expected', 'authorid': UUID('28ee33bf-6be5-5702-b781-ed6b30936433'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8152108415961266, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GT95ST0SEIB2I0G40F3V38OH27VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GT95ST0SEIB2I0G40F3V38OH27VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e98d4571-b03e-524d-b273-dafd2ca30370'), 'title': 'Macro Interest Rate Chart 175: Pay attention to the two sessions and wait for policies', 'author': 'Xu Wenyu', 'orgName': '华泰期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80055521', 'orgSName': '华泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ39tQFl0+XpIU4q04TaCr74=', 'researcher': '徐闻宇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000194620'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ39tQFl0+XpIU4q04TaCr74=', 'site': 'Huatai Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625377415_1.pdf?1709559114000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625377415_1.pdf?1709559114000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Interest Rate Chart 175: Pay attention to the two sessions and wait for policies', 'originalAuthor': '徐闻宇', 'originalContent': '策略摘要中国央行已经开启了降息周期，等待前方的化债和稳增长，关注3月两会政策的增量信息。海外层面，随着市场对3月不降息定价的相对充分，高利率延续之下美联储的资产负债表政策值得留意，在政府短期支出法案通过的情况下，预计大的政策变动概率较低，美元流动性仍存在一定风险。核心观点市场分析国内：关注两会。1）货币政策：政治局会议指出积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效，稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效，增强宏观政策取向一致性，营造稳定透明可预期的政策环境。2）宏观政策：住建部要求以人定房，以房定地、以房定钱；住房和城乡建设部、金融监管总局指出3月15日前地级及以上城市要建立融资协调机制；横琴粤澳深度合作区3月1日零时正式实施封关运行。3）经济数据：1月国际收支货物和服务贸易进出口同比增长23%；1到2月TOP100房企销售总额同比下降51.6%。海外：关注市场风险的波动。1）货币政策：美联储半年度货币政策报告显示，官员们仍然高度留意通胀风险，未来数据、前景、风险将引导利率决定；美联储威廉姆斯和科林斯均表示，美联储在“今年晚些时候”首次降息可能是合适的，降低借贷成本的路径可能有别于之前的降息周期；日本央行货币政策委员高田创表示价格目标终于有望实现，结束负利率政策的理由越来越强。2）经济数据：美国2月ISM制造业指数47.8，预期49.5，1月耐用品订单环比回落6.1%，1月新屋销售66.1万户，预期68.4万户；四季度实际GDP年化小幅下修至3.2%，1月核心PCE物价指数同比增速回落至2.8%，环比从0.2%反弹至0.4%；日本1月核心CPI同比上涨2%；印度四季度GDP同比增长8.4%，市场预期6.6%，三季度由7.6%上修至8.1%。3）风险因素：英伟达财报超预期，机构投资者快速套现离场；2年期美债的拍卖规模630亿美元创最高拍卖量，得标利率为4.691%；比特币逼近历史高点；美国临时支出法案达成，部分政府部门提供资金直至9月30日；普京国情咨文称俄战略核力量处于全面戒备状态。策略持有VXM24，收益率曲线短期有趋平压力（+1×T-2×TS）风险地缘冲突升级，疫情风险升级，欧洲债务风险', 'content': 'Strategy Summary: The People\\'s Bank of China has started the interest rate cut cycle, waiting for the debt reduction and stabilization of growth ahead, and pay attention to the incremental information on the policy of the two sessions in March. At the overseas level, as the market has relatively fully priced in no interest rate cut in March, the Fed\\'s balance sheet policy is worthy of attention amid the continuation of high interest rates. With the passage of the government\\'s short-term spending bill, the probability of major policy changes is expected to be low, and the U.S. dollar There are still certain risks in liquidity. Core point of view: domestic market analysis: pay attention to the two sessions. 1) Monetary policy: The Politburo meeting pointed out that proactive fiscal policy must be appropriately intensified, improve quality and efficiency, and prudent monetary policy must be flexible, moderate, precise and effective, enhance the consistency of macro policy orientation, and create a stable, transparent and predictable policy environment. 2) Macroeconomic policies: The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development requires people to determine housing, housing to determine land, and housing to determine money; the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Administration of Financial Supervision pointed out that cities at prefecture level and above must establish a financing coordination mechanism before March 15; Hengqin The Guangdong-Macao Deep Cooperation Zone officially implemented customs closure at 0:00 on March 1. 3) Economic data: In January, the import and export of international trade in goods and services increased by 23% year-on-year; from January to February, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 51.6% year-on-year. Overseas: Pay attention to market risk fluctuations. 1) Monetary policy: The Federal Reserve\\'s semi-annual monetary policy report shows that officials are still highly concerned about inflation risks, and future data, prospects, and risks will guide interest rate decisions; both Fed Williams and Collins said that the Fed will announce its first policy update \"later this year\" An interest rate cut may be appropriate, and the path to reducing borrowing costs may be different from previous interest rate cut cycles; Bank of Japan monetary policy member Hajime Takada said that the price target is finally expected to be achieved, and the reasons for ending the negative interest rate policy are getting stronger. 2) Economic data: The U.S. ISM manufacturing index in February was 47.8, expected to be 49.5. Durable goods orders in January fell 6.1% month-on-month. New home sales in January were 661,000, compared with 684,000 expected; the annualized real GDP in the fourth quarter was slightly revised down to 3.2%, the core PCE price index growth rate in January fell back to 2.8% year-on-year, rebounding from 0.2% to 0.4% month-on-month; Japan\\'s core CPI in January increased by 2% year-on-year; India\\'s GDP in the fourth quarter increased by 8.4% year-on-year, market expectations were 6.6%, In the third quarter, it was revised up from 7.6% to 8.1%. 3) Risk factors: Nvidia’s financial report exceeded expectations, and institutional investors quickly cashed out; the auction of 2-year U.S. debt reached a record volume of US$63 billion, with a bid interest rate of 4.691%; Bitcoin is approaching historical highs; the U.S. temporary The spending bill was reached, and some government departments provided funds until September 30; Putin\\'s State of the Union address stated that Russia\\'s strategic nuclear forces are on full alert. The strategy holds VXM24. There is flattening pressure on the yield curve in the short term (+1×T-2×TS). Risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, escalating epidemic risks, and European debt risks.', 'authorid': UUID('ea5b1c8b-2069-5763-b3d4-70c9ba8cbb24'), 'sentimentScore': 0.4135482646524906, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'QU0LHQQPK5B7QP2NF9G1KBFBH3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'QU0LHQQPK5B7QP2NF9G1KBFBH3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('856324e3-14cc-503d-a976-828424014ceb'), 'title': 'The U.S. inflation signal is unclear, and the demand for \"external rollout\" is increasing', 'author': 'Yuanno', 'orgName': '中邮证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80036717', 'orgSName': '中邮证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ04Mxr7zZ6RSRiIZKpGv7cw=', 'researcher': '袁野', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000266839'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ04Mxr7zZ6RSRiIZKpGv7cw=', 'site': 'China Post Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中邮证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625365858_1.pdf?1709557559000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625365858_1.pdf?1709557559000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The U.S. inflation signal is unclear, and the demand for \"external rollout\" is increasing', 'originalAuthor': '袁野', 'originalContent': '核心观点（1）美国通胀粘性仍强，货币政策限制性有所显现。1月美国PCE物价指数整体符合预期，但环比增速创2023年2月以来最大增幅，强势抵消了2023年12月圣诞假期影响，指向美国通胀粘性较强。从结构数据来看，无论核心服务PCE物价指数环比增速还是同比增速，均保持了较高韧性，亦凸显了美国通胀粘性较强。从美国个人收入和支出来看，美国个人收入保持稳健增长，但受高利率制约，美国个人利息支出已经开始挤压个人消费支出，个人储蓄率已有明显下降，货币政策对经济的限制性影响已有显现，美国经济尚未显示明确衰退迹象。当前，考虑当前美国通胀粘性仍强，提高利率抑制通胀存在滞后效应，预计美联储降息或稍晚于市场预期，叠加美国商业银行风险有所上升，纽约社区银行风险暴露，因此，反而需要关注美国金融系统乃至经济状况的骤变风险。此外，3月1日美联储理事沃勒在美国货币政策论坛提出“反向扭转操作”。如此操作成行，则短期利好短债收益率及美股，而对美长债收益率造成上行压力。（2）本周宏观环境整体呈现边际向好态势。在政策环境方面，内外部均呈现正面。美欧通胀虽强，但降息预期一直存在；我国宏观调控政策力度有所加大；国内流动性合理充裕，DR007和NCD（6M）本周有明显下行。在非政策环境方面，外部环境承压，内部环境正面。外部环境负面主要体现为美国拜登政府的贸易保护主义有所抬头，宣称将对中国制造的网联汽车展开调查。同时，美欧经济景气度有所下行。内部���境方面，我国汽车销售回暖，房地产销售虽下行，但降幅收窄，显示内需有所回升。风险提示：中美贸易摩擦超预期加剧；美国商业银行危机超预期演变；海外地缘政治冲突加剧。', 'content': 'Core viewpoints (1) U.S. inflation remains highly sticky, and monetary policy is becoming more restrictive. The U.S. PCE price index in January was generally in line with expectations, but the month-on-month growth rate hit the largest increase since February 2023, which strongly offset the impact of the Christmas holiday in December 2023, pointing to strong stickiness in U.S. inflation. From the perspective of structural data, both the core services PCE price index growth rate month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates have maintained high resilience, which also highlights the strong stickiness of U.S. inflation. From the perspective of personal income and expenditure in the United States, personal income in the United States has maintained steady growth. However, restricted by high interest rates, personal interest payments in the United States have begun to squeeze personal consumption expenditures. The personal savings rate has dropped significantly. Monetary policy has a restrictive impact on the economy. It has emerged that the U.S. economy has yet to show clear signs of recession. At present, considering that the stickiness of inflation in the United States is still strong, raising interest rates to curb inflation has a hysteresis effect, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates slightly later than market expectations, and the risks of U.S. commercial banks have increased, and the risks of New York community banks have been exposed. Therefore, we need to pay attention to the U.S. financial sector. Risks of sudden changes in system and even economic conditions. In addition, on March 1, Federal Reserve Governor Waller proposed \"Operation Reverse Reversal\" at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum. If this operation is successful, it will be beneficial to short-term bond yields and U.S. stocks in the short term, while putting upward pressure on U.S. long-term bond yields. (2) The overall macro environment this week showed a marginal improvement. In terms of policy environment, both internal and external aspects are positive. Although inflation in the United States and Europe is strong, interest rate cut expectations have always existed; my country\\'s macroeconomic control policies have increased; domestic liquidity is reasonably abundant, and DR007 and NCD (6M) have declined significantly this week. In terms of non-policy environment, the external environment is under pressure and the internal environment is positive. The negative external environment is mainly reflected in the rise of trade protectionism under the Biden administration in the United States, which announced that it will launch an investigation into connected cars made in China. At the same time, economic prosperity in the United States and Europe has declined. In terms of the internal environment, my country\\'s automobile sales are picking up, and although real estate sales are declining, the decline has narrowed, indicating that domestic demand has picked up. Risk warning: Sino-US trade friction has intensified beyond expectations; the U.S. commercial bank crisis has evolved beyond expectations; overseas geopolitical conflicts have intensified.', 'authorid': UUID('41b3960d-9709-5ae8-b077-aad17d16ee4a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.38042953610420227, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '4D9KAPHQ8AJPSR0340L63EBBV3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '4D9KAPHQ8AJPSR0340L63EBBV3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3f401624-dfcb-58b6-8dd1-53395f58943c'), 'title': 'Market Liquidity Weekly Report', 'author': 'Xu Wei', 'orgName': '宏信证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000150', 'orgSName': '宏信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ6W6eEMRnlJYWI84Nwxe3P4=', 'researcher': '徐伟', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000234031'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ6W6eEMRnlJYWI84Nwxe3P4=', 'site': 'Horizon Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '宏信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625321741_1.pdf?1709552872000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625321741_1.pdf?1709552872000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Market Liquidity Weekly Report', 'originalAuthor': '徐伟', 'originalContent': '公开市场操作：2024年2月26日-3月1日，央行公开市场开展逆回购操作投放11640亿元，逆回购到期5320亿元，总计实现净投放6320亿元。本周预计将有11640亿元逆回购到期。货币��场：截至3月1日，银行间同业拆借加权平均利率较2月23日变动-8.98BP至1.82%，质押式回购加权平均利率较2月23日变动-6.58BP至1.84%；短期利率方面，隔夜shibor、1周shibor、2周shibor、1个月shibor分别为1.6940%、1.8060%、1.9860%、2.0880%，较2月23日分别变动-5.30BP、-1.00BP、-13.30BP、-3.40BP；中期利率方面，3个月shibor、6个月shibor、9个月shibor、1年shibor分别为2.1820%、2.2460%、2.2710%、2.2900%，较2月23日分别变动-3.20BP、-3.70BP、-3.30BP、-3.20BP。国债市场：截至3月1日，1个月期、3个月期、6个月期、1年期、3年期、5年期、10年期、30年期国债到期收益率分别为1.4439%、1.6280%、1.6885%、1.7833%、2.1405%、2.2632%、2.3675%、2.4915%，较2月23日分别变动-3.61BP、7.68BP、-3.30BP、1.34BP、1.71BP、1.37BP、-3.34BP、-8.94BP。外汇市场：截至3月1日，美元兑人民币中间价较2月23日下行5BP至7.1059；美元兑人民币即期汇率较2月23日上行1BP至7.1985，较中间价高926BP；美元兑离岸人民币即期汇率较2月23日上行43BP至7.2100，较在岸即期汇率高115BP。', 'content': 'Open market operations: From February 26 to March 1, 2024, the central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations in the open market and invested 1.164 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchases expired at 532 billion yuan, achieving a total net investment of 632 billion yuan. This week, 1.164 billion yuan of reverse repos is expected to expire. Money market: As of March 1, the weighted average inter-bank lending rate has changed -8.98BP from February 23 to 1.82%, and the weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase has changed -6.58BP from February 23 to 1.84%; short-term In terms of interest rates, the overnight shibor, 1-week shibor, 2-week shibor, and 1-month shibor were 1.6940%, 1.8060%, 1.9860%, and 2.0880% respectively, which were -5.30BP, -1.00BP, and -13.30BP respectively from February 23. , -3.40BP; in terms of medium-term interest rates, the 3-month shibor, 6-month shibor, 9-month shibor, and 1-year shibor were 2.1820%, 2.2460%, 2.2710%, and 2.2900% respectively, which were -3.20% higher than on February 23. BP, -3.70BP, -3.30BP, -3.20BP. Treasury market: As of March 1, the yields to maturity of 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds are respectively 1.4439%, 1.6280%, 1.6885%, 1.7833%, 2.1405%, 2.2632%, 2.3675%, 2.4915%, respectively changed -3.61BP, 7.68BP, -3.30BP, 1.34BP, 1.71BP, \\u200b\\u200b1.37BP from February 23 , -3.34BP, -8.94BP. Foreign exchange market: As of March 1, the central parity rate of USD/CNY fell 5 BP to 7.1059 from February 23; the spot exchange rate of USD/CNY rose 1 BP to 7.1985 from February 23, which is 926 BP higher than the central parity rate; USD/CNH The RMB spot exchange rate rose 43 BP to 7.2100 from February 23, which is 115 BP higher than the onshore spot exchange rate.', 'authorid': UUID('c273a69b-821f-57db-9d79-aac493ef6732'), 'sentimentScore': -0.2810638099908829, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'MU6DNAL77LEBOO7B2SNK086UT7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:53 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'MU6DNAL77LEBOO7B2SNK086UT7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ad71c7fc-5f91-5fdc-93d1-f2bec63c64ba'), 'title': 'February PMI continues to be better than seasonal: Thoughts on February PMI and high-frequency data and future economic outlook', 'author': 'Fan Lei, Fang Shichao', 'orgName': '国联证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000028', 'orgSName': '国联证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ+M1603LiVn9ywCWw9rrRV0=', 'researcher': '樊磊,方诗超', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000175009', '11000369352'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ+M1603LiVn9ywCWw9rrRV0=', 'site': 'Guolian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625230405_1.pdf?1709547440000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625230405_1.pdf?1709547440000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'February PMI continues to be better than seasonal: Thoughts on February PMI and high-frequency data and future economic outlook', 'originalAuthor': '樊磊,方诗超', 'originalContent': '核心观点：2月PMI综合指数较上月回落0.1个百分点，降幅小于可比的历史平均水平0.3个百分点。从结构上来看，近半数分项指数有超季节性的表现。2月实体相关高频数据有所分化，表现较为亮眼的包括上游工业行业，以及一些消费方面的高频指标。结合1、2月PMI与高频数据表现，我们认为，1-2月工业生产乃至总体经济大概率也有望环���迎来回升。展望未来，我们维持对中国经济或在2024年上半年重回复苏轨道的判断。2月PMI表现继续好于季节性2月PMI指数为49.1%（前值49.2%），符合市场一致预期。在2013-2019年间春节在2月的可比年份，2月PMI指数平均较上月回落0.4个百分点，今年2月PMI指数较上月回落0.1个百分点，表现明显好于季节性。主要分项指数中，需求相关的分项指数表现好于季节性，其中内需的改善好于外需；供应商配送时间所代表的景气程度大幅超季节性上升；供给相关的分项指数则有所回落，库存也有所下滑，工业品价格指数环比或仍承压。实体相关高频数据有所分化上游工业行业表现较为积极，节后发电耗煤水平明显回升（+8.5pct），钢铁生产也基本保持平稳;中游部分工业行业包括纺织、轮胎生产有所回落，PTA生产则大体保持平稳；基建相关高频指标稍有回落，可能受到近期连续的雨雪天气影响；市内人口流动进一步环比回升（+2.5pct），显示消费或正在持续修复；但节后跨城交通有所回落，节后复工或有所放缓。此外，地产市场仍有待提振，航运价格在红海事件的影响下出现分化。1-2月经济修复的两条主线1-2月PMI指数的环比变动持续好于季节性。历史经验显示，制造业PMI指数的环比变动与工业增加值的环比变动有较高相关性（拟合优度为0.73）。我们认为，1-2月工业生产乃至总体经济大概率也有望环比迎来回升。从高频数据看，1-2月经济修复或有两条主线：第一，消费可能正在持续修复之中；第二，发电耗煤水平在节后回升可能意味着，尽管地产仍偏弱，但产能投资和基建投资仍然支撑了总需求，并使得总体工业生产有较强的韧性。展望未来，我们维持经济将在上半年复苏的预测中期来看，我们认为在2024年1季度或者2季度，GDP环比增速或将重新回到1.1%-1.2%上方，推动负产出缺口收敛和经济复苏。一方面，从近期的数据来看，1月社融超预期、1-2月PMI表现强于季节性（好于季节规律0.4、0.3pct）以及春节消费的超预期回升，意味着经济新周期的正循环或正在启动。另一方面，近期稳增长政策持续推出，为经济企稳保驾护航。比如，2月20日央行的“非对称”降息传递了强烈的稳增长和稳地产信号。风险提示：经济、政策与预期不一致，地缘政治关系恶化超预期，外需超预期下行，地产出现系统性风险', 'content': 'Core view: The PMI composite index fell by 0.1 percentage points in February from the previous month, which was smaller than the comparable historical average of 0.3 percentage points. From a structural point of view, nearly half of the sub-indices have super-seasonal performance. High-frequency data related to entities in February were somewhat differentiated, with more eye-catching performance including upstream industrial industries and some consumption-related high-frequency indicators. Combining the performance of PMI and high-frequency data in January and February, we believe that industrial production and even the overall economy are likely to rebound month-on-month from January to February. Looking forward, we maintain our judgment that China\\'s economy may return to the track of recovery in the first half of 2024. The February PMI performance continued to be better than the seasonal February PMI index of 49.1% (previous value 49.2%), in line with market consensus expectations. In comparable years between 2013 and 2019 when the Spring Festival fell in February, the PMI index in February fell by 0.4 percentage points on average from the previous month. The PMI index in February this year fell by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, which is significantly better than seasonal performance. Among the main sub-indices, the demand-related sub-index performed better than the seasonality, with domestic demand improving better than external demand; the prosperity represented by supplier delivery time increased significantly over seasonality; the supply-related sub-index showed an improvement. Inventories have also declined, and the industrial product price index may still be under pressure month-on-month. Entity-related high-frequency data are somewhat differentiated. Upstream industrial industries performed more positively. Coal consumption for power generation rebounded significantly after the holidays (+8.5pct), and steel production also basically remained stable. Some midstream industrial industries, including textile and tire production, fell back. PTA Production has generally remained stable; high-frequency indicators related to infrastructure have fallen slightly, which may be affected by the recent continuous rain and snow weather; the population flow in the city has further rebounded month-on-month (+2.5pct), indicating that consumption may be continuing to recover; but cross-city after the holiday Traffic has slowed down, and work resumption after the holidays may slow down. In addition, the real estate market still needs to be boosted, and shipping prices have diverged under the influence of the Red Sea incident. The two main lines of economic recovery from January to February. The month-on-month changes in the PMI index from January to February continued to be better than seasonal. Historical experience shows that the month-on-month changes in the manufacturing PMI index have a high correlation with the month-on-month changes in industrial added value (the goodness of fit is 0.73). We believe that industrial production and even the overall economy are likely to rebound month-on-month from January to February. Judging from high-frequency data, there may be two main lines of economic recovery in January and February: first, consumption may be continuing to recover; second, the level of coal consumption for power generation has picked up after the holiday, which may mean that although real estate is still weak, However, investment in production capacity and infrastructure still supports aggregate demand and makes overall industrial production more resilient. Looking forward, we maintain our forecast that the economy will recover in the first half of the year. In the medium term, we believe that in the first or second quarter of 2024, the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate may return to above 1.1%-1.2%, promoting the convergence of the negative output gap. and economic recovery. On the one hand, judging from recent data, social financing in January exceeded expectations, the PMI performance from January to February was stronger than seasonal (better than the seasonal pattern of 0.4, 0.3pct), and the unexpected rebound in consumption during the Spring Festival means a new economic cycle The positive cycle or starting. On the other hand, recent policies to stabilize growth have been continuously introduced to safeguard economic stability. For example, the central bank\\'s \"asymmetric\" interest rate cut on February 20 sent a strong signal to stabilize growth and real estate. Risk warning: The economy and policies are inconsistent with expectations, geopolitical relations have deteriorated more than expected, external demand has declined more than expected, and systemic risks have emerged in real estate.', 'authorid': UUID('b6747a67-28e3-5d3e-a47d-fd6929bfa2b9'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9567993031814694, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '4264OJ34NFT4MFIIN22FOOOF9RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:56 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '4264OJ34NFT4MFIIN22FOOOF9RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('55dbb47b-2615-5a70-a9fe-9dc4b7206abd'), 'title': \"High-frequency observation of China's economy: How will production demand perform at the beginning of the new year and after the holidays?\", 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Chang Yixin', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZwqjEKZfDhbNfKnUSGQGTBk=', 'researcher': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000387731'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZwqjEKZfDhbNfKnUSGQGTBk=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625259091_1.pdf?1709564452000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625259091_1.pdf?1709564452000.pdf', 'originalTitle': \"High-frequency observation of China's economy: How will production demand perform at the beginning of the new year and after the holidays?\", 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'originalContent': '平安观点：本周是春节假期结束后的第二周，货物流动、人员返程、建筑工地复工工业原材料生产等弱于季节性，仅中下游汽车、纺织复工复产偏强第一，人员返城、货运物流恢复较慢。1）全社会跨区域人员流动情况、百度迁徒指数农历同比表现弱于节前，一线城市地铁客运量仍较1月均值低1.7%。2）整车货运流量、公共物流园吞吐量、主要快递企业分拨中心吞吐量指数分别较1月均值-25.3%、-11.6%、-12%第二，投资实物工作量形成同比放缓。1）截至正月十八，全国工地劳务上工率农历同比降5.2个百分点；开复工率略强于去年同期，但弱于21-22年同期。2）从钢铁建材表观需求、全国水泥出库量、基建水泥直供量等主要建筑原料需求看，投资实物工作量形成速度约较去年农历同期低3成。第三，工业生产方面，原材料与中下游存在分化。汽车轮胎和纺织中下游开工率强势恢复，而钢材、沥青、水泥等原材料生产略弱于季节性。结合年初以来高频数据看，1-2月工业生产平稳、服务业扩张。需求端基建投资偏强，商品消费和出口稳步复苏，但房地产投资及销售存在拖累。第一，工业生产总体平稳。1）从制造业PM数据看，1月生产指数回升1.1个点，强于农历同期；2月生产指数回落1.6个点至49.8，环比略弱于农历同期。2）从高频数据看，1-2月汽车轮胎、化工和纺织生产强于季节性，水泥生产基本符合季节性，钢铁和沥青生产略弱于季节性。第二，基建投资实物工作量强于去年同期，房地产拖累仍较大。1）从PM数据看，2月份建筑业商务活动和新订单指数分别为53.5和47.3；其中，基建相关的土木工程建筑业商务活动指数和新订单指数均升至60以上。2）从高频数据看，前9周螺纹钢和线材表观需求同比增长-20%；前8周全国水泥出库量同比增长3.3%，基建水泥直供量同比增长15.4%第三，新房销售同比跌三到五成。1-2月，克而瑞统计的百强房企销售操盘金额同比-48.8%；我们统计的61个样本城市新房成交面积同比-32.8%，其中一线（-25.6%）二线（-32.4%）三线（-36.1%）四五线（-47.8%）第四，居民消费方面，预计社零同比6%以上，服务零售额同比10%以上。年初服务消费亮眼；汽车、家电等商品消费受低基数推升，表现尚可。第五，外需出口维持复苏势头，尽管去年同期基数拾升，但不排除1-2月中国出口小幅正增长的可能性。1）年初至2月25日，港口累计完成的集装箱吞吐量、货物吞吐量维持正增长。2）从PMI数据看，海外需求有回温迹象。3）1-2月韩国、越南出口累计同比分别增长11.2%、19.2%风险提示：稳增长政筑不及预期', 'content': \"Ping An's perspective: This week is the second week after the Spring Festival holiday. The flow of goods, the return of people, and the resumption of industrial raw material production at construction sites are weaker than seasonal. Only the resumption of work and production of mid- and downstream automobiles and textiles is stronger, and the return of people to the city is stronger. , Freight logistics is recovering slowly. 1) The cross-regional flow of people across society and the Baidu Migration Index’s Lunar New Year performance was weaker than before the holiday. Subway passenger volume in first-tier cities was still 1.7% lower than the January average. 2) Vehicle freight flow, public logistics park throughput, and major express delivery company distribution center throughput indexes were -25.3%, -11.6%, and -12% respectively compared with the January average, indicating a year-on-year slowdown in investment physical workload. 1) As of the 18th of the first lunar month, the national construction site labor availability rate dropped by 5.2 percentage points year-on-year; the resumption rate was slightly stronger than the same period last year, but weaker than the same period in 2021-22. 2) Judging from the apparent demand for steel and building materials, national cement shipments, and direct supply of cement for infrastructure construction and other major construction raw materials, the rate of formation of physical investment workload is about 30% lower than the same period last year in the lunar calendar. Third, in terms of industrial production, there is differentiation between raw materials and midstream and downstream industries. The operating rates of midstream and downstream automobile tires and textiles have recovered strongly, while the production of raw materials such as steel, asphalt, cement, etc. is slightly weaker than seasonal. Based on high-frequency data since the beginning of the year, industrial production was stable and the service industry expanded from January to February. Demand-side infrastructure investment is strong, and commodity consumption and exports are recovering steadily, but real estate investment and sales are dragging down. First, industrial production is generally stable. 1) Looking at manufacturing PM data, the production index rose by 1.1 points in January, which was stronger than the same period in the lunar calendar; the production index fell by 1.6 points in February to 49.8, which was slightly weaker than the same period in the lunar calendar. 2) Judging from high-frequency data, from January to February, the production of automobile tires, chemicals and textiles was stronger than the seasonality, cement production was basically in line with the seasonality, and the production of steel and asphalt was slightly weaker than the seasonality. Second, the physical workload of infrastructure investment is stronger than the same period last year, and real estate is still a big drag. 1) Judging from PM data, the construction industry business activity and new order index in February were 53.5 and 47.3 respectively; among them, the infrastructure-related civil engineering construction industry business activity index and new order index both rose to above 60. 2) Judging from high-frequency data, the apparent demand for rebar and wire rods increased by -20% year-on-year in the first nine weeks; the national cement shipment volume in the first eight weeks increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and the direct supply of infrastructure cement increased by 15.4% year-on-year. Third, new houses Sales fell by 30% to 50% year-on-year. From January to February, the sales volume of the top 100 real estate companies counted by CRIC was -48.8% year-on-year; the transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bnew homes in the 61 sample cities we counted was -32.8% year-on-year, including first-tier (-25.6%) and second-tier (-32.4%) ) Third tier (-36.1%) Fourth and fifth tier (-47.8%) Fourth, in terms of household consumption, social retail sales are expected to exceed 6% year-on-year, and service retail sales are expected to exceed 10% year-on-year. At the beginning of the year, service consumption was impressive; consumption of automobiles, home appliances and other goods was boosted by a low base, and the performance was acceptable. Fifth, external demand exports maintain recovery momentum. Although the base number rose in the same period last year, the possibility of small positive growth in China's exports from January to February cannot be ruled out. 1) From the beginning of the year to February 25, the port’s cumulative container throughput and cargo throughput maintained positive growth. 2) Judging from PMI data, overseas demand shows signs of recovery. 3) From January to February, the cumulative exports of South Korea and Vietnam increased by 11.2% and 19.2% respectively year-on-year. Risk warning: Policies to stabilize growth fell short of expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('149306d1-3d93-5b17-941a-f5aa3a00dc04'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7603907957673073, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'UHLICRLO0KAAPJIS6KF0GIVILNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:02:58 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'UHLICRLO0KAAPJIS6KF0GIVILNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('78412376-1472-5e23-b0d0-7ded6e90919c'), 'title': 'Current economic and policy thinking: new traces of population mobility', 'author': 'Yang Chang', 'orgName': '中泰证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000157', 'orgSName': '中泰证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ6BV1e9mxgtRRd+SVM9vR9Q=', 'researcher': '杨畅', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000286037'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ6BV1e9mxgtRRd+SVM9vR9Q=', 'site': 'Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中泰证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625259317_1.pdf?1709547850000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625259317_1.pdf?1709547850000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Current economic and policy thinking: new traces of population mobility', 'originalAuthor': '杨畅', 'originalContent': '投资要点居民生活用电数可以拆解为居民数量与生活用电方式（人均用电数量）的乘积；影响居民生活用电数的因素，要么是居民数量的变化，要么是生活用电方式的变化；生活用电方式的变化，或能采取用电数量的绝对增长来解释，影响的主要因素可能是新能源车保有量的提升；居民在乡村和城镇的流动变化，或能解释乡村居民生活用电数在城乡生活用电总数中的占比变化；以2019年为基准，在2022年的所有月份上，乡村占比都呈现提升态势；2023年情况类似，除1个月份的乡村占比微弱降低外，其他公布数据的9个月份全部提升。这或许能体现在中期维度上，人口出现从城镇向乡村的流动新痕迹。高频数据：生产高位平稳，基建运行仍弱，地产成交回升，土地出让偏弱，消费总体平稳，出口运价回落，进口运价续升。风险提示事件：国内与海外政策变动风险；国内与海外经济波动超预期风险；国际经济贸易摩擦风险', 'content': 'Investment points: The number of residents’ daily electricity consumption can be broken down into the product of the number of residents and the mode of daily electricity consumption (per capita electricity consumption); the factors that affect the number of residents’ daily electricity consumption are either changes in the number of residents or the mode of daily electricity consumption. Changes; changes in the way people consume electricity may be explained by the absolute increase in electricity consumption, and the main factor may be the increase in the number of new energy vehicles; changes in the flow of residents in rural and urban areas may explain the life of rural residents Changes in the proportion of electricity consumption in the total urban and rural electricity consumption; based on 2019, in all months of 2022, the rural proportion has shown an increasing trend; the situation is similar in 2023, except for the rural proportion in 1 month Except for the slight decrease, all other nine months of published data increased. This may be reflected in the medium-term dimension, with new traces of population flow from urban to rural areas. High-frequency data: Production is stable at a high level, infrastructure operations are still weak, real estate transactions are picking up, land sales are weak, consumption is generally stable, export freight rates have fallen, and import freight rates have continued to rise. Risk warning events: risks of domestic and overseas policy changes; risks of unexpected domestic and overseas economic fluctuations; risks of international economic and trade frictions', 'authorid': UUID('f3afd47c-fdac-5a33-93e8-2b27032e7117'), 'sentimentScore': -0.02248658798635006, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GF5VUI9TH279VP3U5IBQRP0QBFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:01 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GF5VUI9TH279VP3U5IBQRP0QBFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7b47d748-b3d2-5d74-a6de-1eba34614863'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: Industrial production may recover faster than demand after the holiday', 'author': 'He Ning', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZxzzn0Sd5qEyAmS7YT26qDo=', 'researcher': '何宁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZxzzn0Sd5qEyAmS7YT26qDo=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625259050_1.pdf?1709547540000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625259050_1.pdf?1709547540000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: Industrial production may recover faster than demand after the holiday', 'originalAuthor': '何宁', 'originalContent': '供需：节后基建开工表现分化，工业生产恢复快于需求1.节后磨机运转与水泥发运率处于历史同期高位。最近两周石油沥青装置开工率见底回升，但绝对值仍处历史同期较低位置，节后第一周磨机运转率、水泥发运率处于历史同期较高位置。2.工业生产端，部分化工链产品开工超季节性，汽车轮胎开工回升较快。最近两周PX等化工链开工率超历史同期、汽车轮胎开工率回升速度较快，高炉、焦炉开工率延续下行。3．需求端，地产链与轻纺城需求回升速度较慢。工业需求端，2月前22天，电厂煤炭日耗均值较1月下降。节后最近一周（2月25日至3月2日）地产链需求回升速度慢于历史同期。消费需求端，2023年11月以来，乘用车四周滚动平均销量同比维持正增长，近期因春节错位有所回落。最近两周中国轻纺城成交量季节性回升，但平均值较历史同期仍处低位。商品价格：国际大宗品涨跌分化，国内金属、化工商品上升1.国际大宗商品：原油价格延续回升，金属价格涨跌互现。最近两周，原油价格延续回升；铜与黄金平均价格均有所上升，铝价有所下降。2.国内工业品：整体震荡运行，金属、能化产品价格上升。首先以南华指数观察整体价格变化，最近两周，国内工业品价格震荡运行。黑色系商品价格普降，最近两周，铁矿石、螺纹钢价格均下降。化工链商品价格春节整体上升，春节当周，甲醇、顺丁橡胶、涤纶长丝平均价格较上周有所上升。建材价格整体回升，最近两周，沥青价格略有回落，浮法玻璃、水泥春节期间价格较前值有所回升。3.食品：农产品价格有所下降。最近两周，农产品价格有所回落，农产品价格200指数平均值较上两周环比下降4.8%，猪肉价格回落，猪肉平均批发价较上两周环比下降7.6%。地产与流动性：商品房成交环比回升但弱于季节性，资金利率波动运行1.商品房：成交面积环比回升。最近两周，全国30大中城市商品房成交面积平均值较上两周环比回升149.7%，但从季节性上看处于同期历史低位。从结构上看，以当周值计算，一线城市商品房销售转暖较为明显。2.土地：成交面积同环比均下降。最近两周，100大中城市成交土地占地面积较上两周环比下降4.7%，较2023年春节同期同比下降33%。3.流动性：资金利率波动运行，逆回购以净回笼为主。最���两周，资金利率波动运行。截至3月1日，R007为2.0%，DR007为1.8%。最近两周央行逆回购以净回笼为主。最近一周央行实现货币净投放6320亿元。近两周质押式回购成交量共为65.6万亿元。本周质押式逆回购较上周增加10.1万亿元。交通运输：居民出行同比正增，出口运价有所回落1.居民出行：稳中有升。最近两周，北上广深地铁客运量平均值较上两周环比上升67.8%，较2023年春节同期同比上升12.6%。国内执行航班数平均值较上两周环比下降2.7%，较2023年春节同期同比上升12.0%。2.货运物流：边际回升。最近两周，整车货运流量指数、公路物流园吞吐量指数与主要快递企业分拨中心吞吐量指数平均值较上两周分别环比-23.5%、-15.6%、-16.1%。节奏上看，整车货运流量指数、公路物流园吞吐量指数与主要快递企业分拨中心吞吐量指数在最近一周已有所反弹。3.运价：出口运价有所回落，BDI与铁矿石运价指数有所回升。最近两周，出口运价与内贸运价均回落，大宗商品运价中BDTI指数回落，BDI指数、铁矿石运价指数回升。风险提示：大宗商品价格波动超预期，政策力度超预期。', 'content': \"Supply and demand: The performance of infrastructure construction after the holiday is divided, and industrial production recovers faster than demand. 1. After the holiday, mill operation and cement shipping rate are at historical highs for the same period. In the past two weeks, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt installations has bottomed out and rebounded, but the absolute value is still at a historically low level for the same period. The mill operation rate and cement shipping rate in the first week after the holiday are at a historically high level for the same period. 2. On the industrial production side, the start-up of some chemical chain products is extremely seasonal, and the start-up of automobile tires has rebounded quickly. In the past two weeks, the operating rates of PX and other chemical chains have exceeded the same period in history, the operating rates of automobile tires have rebounded rapidly, and the operating rates of blast furnaces and coke ovens have continued to decline. 3． On the demand side, demand from the real estate chain and textile cities is picking up slowly. On the industrial demand side, in the first 22 days of February, the average daily coal consumption of power plants dropped compared with January. In the last week after the holiday (February 25 to March 2), demand in the real estate chain rebounded slower than in the same period in history. On the consumer demand side, since November 2023, the four-week rolling average sales volume of passenger cars has maintained positive year-on-year growth, but has recently declined due to the Spring Festival dislocation. In the past two weeks, the transaction volume of China Textile City has rebounded seasonally, but the average value is still low compared with the same period in history. Commodity prices: International commodities rose and fell, while domestic metal and chemical commodities rose. 1. International commodities: Crude oil prices continued to rise, while metal prices were mixed. In the past two weeks, crude oil prices have continued to rise; the average prices of copper and gold have increased, while aluminum prices have declined. 2. Domestic industrial products: The overall operation is volatile, with prices of metals and energy and chemical products rising. First, observe the overall price changes using the Nanhua Index. In the past two weeks, domestic industrial product prices have fluctuated. The prices of black commodities have generally fallen. In the past two weeks, the prices of iron ore and rebar have both dropped. Prices of commodities in the chemical chain generally rose during the Spring Festival. During the week of the Spring Festival, the average prices of methanol, butadiene rubber, and polyester filament increased compared with last week. Building materials prices have rebounded overall. In the past two weeks, asphalt prices have fallen slightly, and float glass and cement prices have rebounded from the previous value during the Spring Festival. 3. Food: Prices of agricultural products have declined. In the past two weeks, the prices of agricultural products have declined. The average price of the Agricultural Products 200 Index has dropped by 4.8% from the previous two weeks. The price of pork has dropped, with the average wholesale price of pork falling by 7.6% from the previous two weeks. Real estate and liquidity: Commercial housing transactions rebounded month-on-month but were weaker than seasonality, and capital interest rates fluctuated. 1. Commercial housing: Transaction area rebounded month-on-month. In the past two weeks, the average transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bcommercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities across the country has rebounded by 149.7% from the previous two weeks, but it is at a historical low in the same period from a seasonal perspective. From a structural point of view, based on the current week's value, commercial housing sales in first-tier cities have picked up significantly. 2. Land: Transaction area decreased year-on-month. In the past two weeks, the area of \\u200b\\u200bland transacted in 100 large and medium-sized cities has decreased by 4.7% compared with the previous two weeks, and has decreased by 33% year-on-year compared with the same period during the Spring Festival in 2023. 3. Liquidity: Fund interest rates fluctuate, and reverse repos are mainly net withdrawals. In the past two weeks, capital interest rates have fluctuated. As of March 1, R007 was 2.0% and DR007 was 1.8%. In the past two weeks, the central bank's reverse repurchases have mainly been net withdrawals. In the past week, the central bank achieved a net monetary injection of 632 billion yuan. The total volume of pledged repurchase transactions in the past two weeks was 65.6 trillion yuan. This week's pledged reverse repurchase increased by 10.1 trillion yuan compared with last week. Transportation: Residential travel has increased year-on-year, and export freight rates have declined. 1. Residential travel: Steady and rising. In the past two weeks, the average passenger volume of the Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen subway has increased by 67.8% compared with the previous two weeks, and increased by 12.6% compared with the same period during the Spring Festival in 2023. The average number of domestic flights fell by 2.7% compared with the previous two weeks, and increased by 12.0% compared with the same period during the Spring Festival in 2023. 2. Freight logistics: marginal recovery. In the past two weeks, the average vehicle freight flow index, highway logistics park throughput index and major express delivery company distribution center throughput index were -23.5%, -15.6% and -16.1% respectively compared with the previous two weeks. In terms of rhythm, the vehicle freight flow index, highway logistics park throughput index and major express delivery company distribution center throughput index have rebounded in the past week. 3. Freight rates: Export freight rates have declined, and BDI and iron ore freight indexes have rebounded. In the past two weeks, export freight rates and domestic trade freight rates have both fallen. The BDTI index in bulk commodity freight rates has fallen, while the BDI index and iron ore freight index have rebounded. Risk warning: Commodity prices fluctuate beyond expectations, and policy intensity exceeds expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('52a5389c-6434-575d-ad8f-dccb9d09cd11'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7207344844937325, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'D6GRQQMR9DUN2RTARMB329M54FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'D6GRQQMR9DUN2RTARMB329M54FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a40d9234-858f-5e12-bef5-99aee09d6a98'), 'title': 'Industrial Economic Monthly Report: Pay attention to the procyclical factors of heavy holdings of institutions', 'author': 'Li Hao', 'orgName': '德邦证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000217', 'orgSName': '德邦证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ7svvjh0E8Or3cjzZfJZpY8=', 'researcher': '李浩', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000302631'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ7svvjh0E8Or3cjzZfJZpY8=', 'site': 'Debon Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '德邦证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625258886_1.pdf?1709547760000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625258886_1.pdf?1709547760000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Industrial Economic Monthly Report: Pay attention to the procyclical factors of heavy holdings of institutions', 'originalAuthor': '李浩', 'originalContent': '投资要点：近期观点1、中国经济复苏一触即发，债务周期走向产业周期中消费结构特征也会随之改变，地产周期下行后居民实际可支配收入提升，中低端消费复苏后有望向高端可选消费蔓延。2、过去多年里美国的移动互联网和创新药等科技发展一定程度上限制了全球要素生产率增长，而这一限制或是中国全球化的重要基础，中国的全新商业范式或将带动全球要素生产率重回上行趋势。3、中国加速地产市场化，财政的变化或整体较为平稳。地产周期平滑，或不需要太多政策工具支持，地产回归平衡点后或将为中国全球化提供更好的宏观环境。4、行业配置：关注低估值、顺周期、机构重仓股因子，股份行、城商行、农商行、保险、工程机械、轮胎、家电、新能源整车。宏观与中观趋势：1、预计人工智能的发展难以扭转美国科技创新周期回落带来的盈利增速放缓。2、美国科技、制造、地产或均衡发展，中低收入人群薪资增速或难大幅回落，美国通胀具有粘性。3、关注美国从长期衰退走向长期滞胀的可能，长期滞胀特征或将加剧美国经济短期波动。4、关注美国逆全球化趋势下，离岸美元融资或将走弱，人民币国际化进程或有提速。5、中国共同富裕与中低收入人群消费升级具有长期性。6、低回报时代重点关注供给格局带来的长期超额收益。7、传统行业国有化，国有企业市场化是中国经济效率上升的重要突破方向。8、高端制造供需缺口最大阶段或已过，产能过剩导致的利润下行或将改善。长期和中期行业选择：1、长期看全球经济可能走向杠杆周期的繁荣，通胀中枢拾级而上。我们建议关注传统行业中供给格局好的行业。2、全球科技产业将持续数据化、智能化演进，先进封装或接棒摩尔定律。3、中国去杠杆周期的尾声，可选消费或将具有显著超额增速。4、看好中国相对低价推动的全面出海，以及未来品牌和渠道优势带动的量价齐升。风险提示：美国就业超预期改善；中美关系改善不及预期；半导体周期再度下行', 'content': \"Investment points: Recent views 1. China’s economic recovery is imminent. The characteristics of the consumption structure will also change during the debt cycle and the industrial cycle. After the real estate cycle declines, residents’ real disposable income will increase. After the recovery of mid-to-low-end consumption, it is expected to shift to high-end optional consumption. spread. 2. In the past many years, the development of technologies such as mobile Internet and innovative drugs in the United States has limited the growth of global factor productivity to a certain extent. This limitation may be an important foundation for China's globalization. China's new business paradigm may lead to a significant increase in global factor productivity. Back to the uptrend. 3. China is accelerating the marketization of real estate, and financial changes may be relatively stable overall. The smoothing of the real estate cycle may not require the support of many policy tools. After real estate returns to the equilibrium point, it may provide a better macro environment for China's globalization. 4. Industry configuration: Pay attention to the factors of low valuation, procyclicality, and institutional heavyweight stocks, including joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, insurance, engineering machinery, tires, home appliances, and new energy vehicles. Macro and meso trends: 1. It is expected that the development of artificial intelligence will be difficult to reverse the slowdown in profit growth caused by the decline in the U.S. technological innovation cycle. 2. U.S. technology, manufacturing, and real estate may develop in a balanced way, and the wage growth rate of middle- and low-income people may not fall significantly. U.S. inflation is sticky. 3. Pay attention to the possibility that the United States will move from long-term recession to long-term stagflation. The characteristics of long-term stagflation may intensify the short-term fluctuations of the U.S. economy. 4. Pay attention to the trend of anti-globalization in the United States, offshore US dollar financing may weaken, and the process of RMB internationalization may accelerate. 5. China’s common prosperity and the consumption upgrade of low- and middle-income groups are long-term. 6. In the era of low returns, focus on the long-term excess returns brought about by the supply pattern. 7. The nationalization of traditional industries and the marketization of state-owned enterprises are important breakthroughs in improving China's economic efficiency. 8. The largest gap between supply and demand in high-end manufacturing may have passed, and the profit decline caused by overcapacity may improve. Long-term and medium-term industry selection: 1. In the long term, the global economy may move toward a leverage cycle of prosperity, with the inflation center rising. We recommend focusing on industries with good supply patterns in traditional industries. 2. The global technology industry will continue to evolve toward digitalization and intelligence, and advanced packaging may succeed Moore's Law. 3. At the end of China’s deleveraging cycle, optional consumption may have significant excess growth. 4. We are optimistic about China’s comprehensive overseas expansion driven by relatively low prices, and the future volume and price increases driven by brand and channel advantages. Risk warning: U.S. employment improves more than expected; Sino-U.S. relations improve less than expected; semiconductor cycle declines again\", 'authorid': UUID('a869b7c2-96bd-54ad-9354-73271b48c123'), 'sentimentScore': 0.3452375438064337, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'T5MH6FQ4KHLF7KFCEDKR0HI30NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:07 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'T5MH6FQ4KHLF7KFCEDKR0HI30NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ee30adc5-3923-5783-8adf-f49ec18214c4'), 'title': 'Thoughts on February PMI and high-frequency data and future economic outlook: February PMI continues to be better than seasonal', 'author': 'Fan Lei, Fang Shichao', 'orgName': '国联证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000028', 'orgSName': '国联证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZzOo8SVQQTssOW466H+YWN8=', 'researcher': '樊磊,方诗超', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000175009', '11000369352'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZzOo8SVQQTssOW466H+YWN8=', 'site': 'Guolian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625216719_1.pdf?1709549638000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625216719_1.pdf?1709549638000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Thoughts on February PMI and high-frequency data and future economic outlook: February PMI continues to be better than seasonal', 'originalAuthor': '樊磊,方诗超', 'originalContent': '专题内容摘要核心观点：2月PMI综合指数较上月回落0.1个百分点，降幅小于可比的历史平均水平0.3个百分点。从结构上来看，近半数分项指数有超季节性的表现。2月实体相关高频数据有所分化，表现较为亮眼的包括上游工业行业，以及一些消费方面的高频指标。结合1、2月PMI与高频数据表现，我们认为，1-2月工业生产乃至总体经济大概率也有望环比迎来回升。展望未来，我们维持对中国经济或在2024年上半年重回复苏轨道的判断。2月PMI表现继续好于季节性2月PMI指数为49.1%（前值49.2%），符合市场一致预期。在2013-2019年间春节在2月的可比年份，2月PMI指数平均较上月回落0.4个百分点，今年2月PMI指数较上月回落0.1个百分点，表现明显好于季节性。主要分项指数中，需求相关的分项指数表现好于季节性，其中内需的改善好于外需；供应商配送时间所代表的景气程度大幅超季节性上升；供给相关的分项指数则有所回落，库存也有所下滑，工业品价格指数环比或仍承压。实体相关高频数据有所分化上游工业行业表现较为积极，节后发电耗煤水平明显回升（+8.5pct），钢铁生产也基本保持平稳;中游部分工业行业包括纺织、轮胎生产有所回落，PTA生产则大体保持平稳；基建相关高频指标稍有回落，可能受到近期连续的雨雪天气影响；市内人口流动进一步环比回升（+2.5pct），显示消费或正在持续修复；但节后跨城交通有所回落，节后复工或有所放缓。此外，地产市场仍有待提振，航运价格在红海事件的影响下出现分化。1-2月经济修复的两条主线1-2月PMI指数的环比变动持续好于季节性。历史经验显示，制造业PMI指数的环比变动与工业增加值的环比变动有较高相关性（拟合优度为0.73）。我们认为，1-2月工业生产乃至总体经济大概率也有望环比迎来回升。从高频数据看，1-2月经济修复或有两条主线：第一，消费可能正在持续修复之中；第二，发电耗煤水平在节后回升可能意味着，尽管地产仍偏弱，但产能投资和基建投资仍然支撑了总需求，并使得总体工业生产有较强的韧性。展望未来，我们维持经济将在上半年复苏的预测中期来看，我们认为在2024年1季度或者2季度，GDP环比增速或将重新回到1.1%-1.2%上方，推动负产出缺口收敛和经济复苏。一方面，从近期的数据来看，1月社融超预期、1-2月PMI表现强于季节性（好于季节规律0.4、0.3pct）以及春节消费的超预期回升，意味着经济新周期的正循环或正在启动。另一方面，近期稳增长政策持续推出，为经济企稳保驾护航。比如，2月20日央行的“非对称”降息传递了强烈的稳增长和稳地产信号。风险提示：经济、政策与预期不一致，地缘政治关系恶化超预期，外需超预期下行，地产出现系统性风险', 'content': 'Topic content summary core point of view: The PMI composite index fell by 0.1 percentage points in February from the previous month, which was smaller than the comparable historical average of 0.3 percentage points. From a structural point of view, nearly half of the sub-indices have super-seasonal performance. High-frequency data related to entities in February were somewhat differentiated, with more eye-catching performance including upstream industrial industries and some consumption-related high-frequency indicators. Combining the performance of PMI and high-frequency data in January and February, we believe that industrial production and even the overall economy are likely to rebound month-on-month from January to February. Looking forward, we maintain our judgment that China\\'s economy may return to the track of recovery in the first half of 2024. The February PMI performance continued to be better than the seasonal February PMI index of 49.1% (previous value 49.2%), in line with market consensus expectations. In comparable years between 2013 and 2019 when the Spring Festival fell in February, the PMI index in February fell by 0.4 percentage points on average from the previous month. The PMI index in February this year fell by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, which is significantly better than seasonal performance. Among the main sub-indices, the demand-related sub-index performed better than the seasonality, with domestic demand improving better than external demand; the prosperity represented by supplier delivery time increased significantly over seasonality; the supply-related sub-index showed an improvement. Inventories have also declined, and the industrial product price index may still be under pressure month-on-month. Entity-related high-frequency data are somewhat differentiated. Upstream industrial industries performed more positively. Coal consumption for power generation rebounded significantly after the holidays (+8.5pct), and steel production also basically remained stable. Some midstream industrial industries, including textile and tire production, fell back. PTA Production has generally remained stable; high-frequency indicators related to infrastructure have fallen slightly, which may be affected by the recent continuous rain and snow weather; the population flow in the city has further rebounded month-on-month (+2.5pct), indicating that consumption may be continuing to recover; but cross-city after the holiday Traffic has slowed down, and work resumption after the holidays may slow down. In addition, the real estate market still needs to be boosted, and shipping prices have diverged under the influence of the Red Sea incident. The two main lines of economic recovery from January to February. The month-on-month changes in the PMI index from January to February continued to be better than seasonal. Historical experience shows that the month-on-month changes in the manufacturing PMI index have a high correlation with the month-on-month changes in industrial added value (the goodness of fit is 0.73). We believe that industrial production and even the overall economy are likely to rebound month-on-month from January to February. Judging from high-frequency data, there may be two main lines of economic recovery in January and February: first, consumption may be continuing to recover; second, the level of coal consumption for power generation has picked up after the holiday, which may mean that although real estate is still weak, However, investment in production capacity and infrastructure still supports aggregate demand and makes overall industrial production more resilient. Looking forward, we maintain our forecast that the economy will recover in the first half of the year. In the medium term, we believe that in the first or second quarter of 2024, the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate may return to above 1.1%-1.2%, promoting the convergence of the negative output gap. and economic recovery. On the one hand, judging from recent data, social financing in January exceeded expectations, the PMI performance from January to February was stronger than seasonal (better than the seasonal pattern of 0.4, 0.3pct), and the unexpected rebound in consumption during the Spring Festival means a new economic cycle The positive cycle or starting. On the other hand, recent policies to stabilize growth have been continuously introduced to safeguard economic stability. For example, the central bank\\'s \"asymmetric\" interest rate cut on February 20 sent a strong signal to stabilize growth and real estate. Risk warning: The economy and policies are inconsistent with expectations, geopolitical relations have deteriorated more than expected, external demand has declined more than expected, and systemic risks have emerged in real estate.', 'authorid': UUID('b6747a67-28e3-5d3e-a47d-fd6929bfa2b9'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9569992534816265, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '07K2DUL22L7KQGUESOKEN5U7GFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:09 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '07K2DUL22L7KQGUESOKEN5U7GFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7f5fae63-414b-5bd0-a19e-1b14d5c3025f'), 'title': 'Further signs of economic stabilization appear: Weekly Report from February 26 to March 3, 2024', 'author': 'Fu Yang,Liu Qingdong,Liu Qian', 'orgName': '中航证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000197', 'orgSName': '中航证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ1i0gyNWxw48YROCTT76LOM=', 'researcher': '符旸,刘庆东,刘倩', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177393', '11000268232', '11000424332'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ1i0gyNWxw48YROCTT76LOM=', 'site': 'AVIC Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中航证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625216004_1.pdf?1709564317000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625216004_1.pdf?1709564317000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Further signs of economic stabilization appear: Weekly Report from February 26 to March 3, 2024', 'originalAuthor': '符旸,刘庆东,刘倩', 'originalContent': '制造业PMI强于季节性2024年2月官方制造业PMI录得49.1%，较上月-0.1PCTS。我们认为2月制造业PMI需从三个角度理解：其一，2月制造业PMI较1月下行符合春节导致的季节性规律。其二，从绝对水平的比较来看，2月制造业PMI与历年春节假期位于2月的年份相比不算强，制造业景气度仍有较大提升空间。其三，从环比变化的比较来看，2月制造业PMI因春节因素而较1月下行的幅度明显小于季节性，显示出较强的韧性，后续制造业景气度继续改善有望总体来看，景气度仍处相对低位，但景气度修复速度较快是2月PMI数据的核心特征。2月制造业的需求和生产与历年同月相比均处在较弱的位置，导致2月制造业景气度总体上弱于历年2月，制造业PMI值排在历年2月靠后的位置。另一方面，2月在内需回暖的带动下，制造业总体需求正在快速修复中，制造业PMI在春节因素的作用下下滑幅度明显小于季节性。结合2月较1月上行的业务活动预期指数反映出的制造业企业预期好转，以及下滑幅度弱于季节性的进口指数和采购量指数反映出的内需韧性，预计3月制造业企业景气度有望较2月好转。今年2月，非制造业商务活动指数录得51.4%，较上月+0.7PCTS，其中，建筑业PMI为53.5%，较上月-0.4PCTS，服务业PMI为51.0%，较上月+1.0PCTS。2月建筑业景气度较1月下滑，一是受到了节假期及低温雨雪天气等因素影响，二是今年专项债发行节奏较慢，三是继续受到房地产行业不景气的拖累。建筑业的景气程度与基建和地产相关性较大，后续应重点观察房地产和基建相关政策的出台。2月服务业PMI较上月上行1.0PCTS，连续第2个月位于荣枯线之上。虽然2月服务业PMI值仍然在可比年份同月中排在靠后位置，但2月PMI较1月拾升，向好程度强于季节性，显示服务业修复速度较快，与春节期间居民消费、旅游数据的好转相互印证。稳增长政策下，经济企稳信号接连出现后续重点仍在房地产行业走势去年上半年我国经济恢复态势相对良好，但进入下半年之后，经济动能持续走弱对此，于去年12月召开的中央经济工作会议对我国的经济给出了“有效需求不足”、“部分行业产能过剩”、“社会预期偏弱”、“风险隐患仍然较多”、“国内大循环存在堵点”以及“外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升”等6点重要判断。我们认为，上述六点判断中，“有效需求不足”和“社会预期偏弱”居于核心地位，也是最能适配财政政策和货币政策来解决的问题。自中央经济工作会议之后，针对上述经济运行过程中存在的问题，以货币政策和财政政策为主的多项宏观政策已经出台。包括2023年末开始重启PSL，近期的五年期LPR创纪录调降等等从近期公布的经济和金融数据看，下我国经济已出现了些企稳信号如：1月我国社融和信贷超预期，且结构性出现改善，私人部门融资需求回升；2月制造业PMI虽然因春节因素较1月下行，但同比下滑值明显小于可比年份，显示出较强韧性。此外，非制造业中的服务业PMI也显示出服务业景气度正在快速恢复中。总体来看，日前我国经济运行中，房地产仍面临较大的不确定性。虽然过去两年稳房地产政策持续推出，我国房地产行业持续不景气的状态并未得到扭转，整个行业仍然沿着居民购房意愿下降一一房企回款变慢、预期转弱一一房企降低房地产投资力度这一链条持续恶化。因此，虽然从2021年下半年开始，我国房地产因新房建设速度的大幅减小而出现了持续去库存，但因为居民购房下滑的速度更快，因此商品房去化周期不仅没有下降，反而持续上升。下周两会即将召开，除财政赤字水平、进一步降准降息预期等关系到今年稳增长力度的政策外，房地产行业的最新定调、乃至最���的增量稳房地产政策也应重点关注。时逢月末资金利率季节性波动，短期内市场流动性或边际收敛时逢月末，资金市场季节性波动。跨月结束后资金利率即回落至政策利率附近，截止3月1日，DR007报收1.82%，较上周五下行2BP；SHIBOR1W报收1.81%，较上周五下行1BP。公开市场操作方面，为了维护月末流动性平稳，央行加大了公开市场操作规模。本周内共投放7D逆回购11640亿元，利率维持1.80%；逆回购到期5320亿元、通过逆回购净投放流动性6320亿元2024年开年以来央行货币政策宽松程度超出市场预期，不仅节前在国务院新闻发布会上宣布进行结构性降息、降准，节后首周即宣布下调5年期LPR25BP至3.95%，调整幅度达到历史新高。此外，一季度以来政府债发行节奏趋缓也使得流动性挤压减轻，多重因素综合作用使得开年以来资金市场流动性一直处于较为充裕的状态。往后看，在当前内需不足、经济复苏节奏尚待提升的基本面下，3月初召开的全国两会对货币政策定调大概率仍维持宽松。但从内外部平衡和货币政策带后性有待观察的角度考虑，短期内进一步调降政策利率的需求可能并不追切，叠加会议结束后二季度政府专项债等各类政策有序推进对资金形成的高量需求，二季度流动性或边际小幅收敛美国核心PCE物价指数符合市场预期，美债收益率高位回落，人民币汇率外部压力趋缓截至3月1日，美国10年期国债收益率录得4.19%，较上周五下行7BP。2月29日，美国商务部公布的数据显示，美国1月核心PCE物价指数较12月增长0.4%，同比增加2.8%，表现符合预期。作为美联储重点关注的核心物价指数，该数据表现巩固了美联储6月开启降息的市场预期。美国10年期国债收益率高位回落，人民币汇率外部压力边际趋缓。截止3月1日，人民币兑美元即期汇率报收7.1985，周内持续小幅波动。近期市场对美联储的降息预期随着各项经济数据大幅波动。去年底以来美国通胀压力有所缓解，鲍威尔在12月召开的议息会议上宣布“降息问题已经进入视野”，美联储叙事正式转入降息范式，市场给予了积极回应，FEDWatch利率路径显示市场预期2024年3月开启降息，年内降息150BP。外部压力降低促使人民币汇率重新走出升值行情而随着开年以来美国通胀数据显示出反弹的势头，失业率回落和制造业PMI筑底回升专明美国经济韧性犹存，海外降息预期大幅降低，市场一致预期3月美联储按兵不动开启降息时点可能延后至6月份，并且年内降息幅度也缩减至75BP与此同时，2024年以来人民币汇率波动幅度却有所下降，美元兑人民币即期汇率集中在7.15-7.20小幅波动。美债利率尚处高位，中美货币政策周期错位之下，人民币汇率的外部压力较强。另一方面，国内实体基本面偏弱格局未有实质性改变。人民币汇率持续小幅盘整，表明央行对于汇率的政策调控和干预力度加强，人民币败值幅度相对可控。3月多项经济数据发布叠加止盈压力或加大债市波动截止3月1日，我国10年期国债收益率报收2.37%，较上周五下行3BP；1年期国债收益率报收1.78%，较上周五上行1BP，长端利率快速下行带动期限利差回落，本周五期限利差录得58.42BP，较上周五下行4.68BP。年后在LPR超预期大幅下调和流动性宽松助推下，10年期国债收益率下探至2.40%下方，触及2003年以来的最低点。年初两个月多项宏观经济数据指标合并发布，造成多项数据“真空”。进入3月，伴随全国两会的召开和多项宏观数据的发布，市场对稳增长政策的关注度上升。基本面上，近期数据显示国内需求有企稳向好的迹象。2月官方制造业PMI指数录得49.1，虽然受到春节假期错位因素等影响较1月份小幅回落，但是高于市场预期。2月服务业PMI回升0.9至51，零售、交运、餐饮等生活性服务业构成支撑。此外，2月23日召开的中央财经委员会第四次会议上要求推动新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，对内需有一定的提振作用。基本面边际转好迹象+稳增长政策加码发力+市场止盈压力多重作用，债市波动幅度或加大。风险提示：国际局势出现黑天鹅利空事件；海外宏观经济下行超预期；国内稳增长政策效果不及预期：国内需求端恢复速度显著偏慢', 'content': '制造业PMI强于季节性2024年2月官方制造业PMI录得49.1%，较上月-0.1PCTS。我们认为2月制造业PMI需从三个角度理解：其一，2月制造业PMI较1月下行符合春节导致的季节性规律。其二，从绝对水平的比较来看，2月制造业PMI与历年春节假期位于2月的年份相比不算强，制造业景气度仍有较大提升空间。其三，从环比��化的比较来看，2月制造业PMI因春节因素而较1月下行的幅度明显小于季节性，显示出较强的韧性，后续制造业景气度继续改善有望总体来看，景气度仍处相对低位，但景气度修复速度较快是2月PMI数据的核心特征。2月制造业的需求和生产与历年同月相比均处在较弱的位置，导致2月制造业景气度总体上弱于历年2月，制造业PMI值排在历年2月靠后的位置。另一方面，2月在内需回暖的带动下，制造业总体需求正在快速修复中，制造业PMI在春节因素的作用下下滑幅度明显小于季节性。结合2月较1月上行的业务活动预期指数反映出的制造业企业预期好转，以及下滑幅度弱于季节性的进口指数和采购量指数反映出的内需韧性，预计3月制造业企业景气度有望较2月好转。今年2月，非制造业商务活动指数录得51.4%，较上月+0.7PCTS，其中，建筑业PMI为53.5%，较上月-0.4PCTS，服务业PMI为51.0%，较上月+1.0PCTS。2月建筑业景气度较1月下滑，一是受到了节假期及低温雨雪天气等因素影响，二是今年专项债发行节奏较慢，三是继续受到房地产行业不景气的拖累。建筑业的景气程度与基建和地产相关性较大，后续应重点观察房地产和基建相关政策的出台。2月服务业PMI较上月上行1.0PCTS，连续第2个月位于荣枯线之上。虽然2月服务业PMI值仍然在可比年份同月中排在靠后位置，但2月PMI较1月拾升，向好程度强于季节性，显示服务业修复速度较快，与春节期间居民消费、旅游数据的好转相互印证。稳增长政策下，经济企稳信号接连出现后续重点仍在房地产行业走势去年上半年我国经济恢复态势相对良好，但进入下半年之后，经济动能持续走弱对此，于去年12月召开的中央经济工作会议对我国的经济给出了“有效需求不足”、“部分行业产能过剩”、“社会预期偏弱”、“风险隐患仍然较多”、“国内大循环存在堵点”以及“外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升”等6点重要判断。我们认为，上述六点判断中，“有效需求不足”和“社会预期偏弱”居于核心地位，也是最能适配财政政策和货币政策来解决的问题。自中央经济工作会议之后，针对上述经济运行过程中存在的问题，以货币政策和财政政策为主的多项宏观政策已经出台。包括2023年末开始重启PSL，近期的五年期LPR创纪录调降等等从近期公布的经济和金融数据看，下我国经济已出现了些企稳信号如：1月我国社融和信贷超预期，且结构性出现改善，私人部门融资需求回升；2月制造业PMI虽然因春节因素较1月下行，但同比下滑值明显小于可比年份，显示出较强韧性。此外，非制造业中的服务业PMI也显示出服务业景气度正在快速恢复中。总体来看，日前我国经济运行中，房地产仍面临较大的不确定性。虽然过去两年稳房地产政策持续推出，我国房地产行业持续不景气的状态并未得到扭转，整个行业仍然沿着居民购房意愿下降一一房企回款变慢、预期转弱一一房企降低房地产投资力度这一链条持续恶化。因此，虽然从2021年下半年开始，我国房地产因新房建设速度的大幅减小而出现了持续去库存，但因为居民购房下滑的速度更快，因此商品房去化周期不仅没有下降，反而持续上升。下周两会即将召开，除财政赤字水平、进一步降准降息预期等关系到今年稳增长力度的政策外，房地产行业的最新定调、乃至最新的增量稳房地产政策也应重点关注。时逢月末资金利率季节性波动，短期内市场流动性或边际收敛时逢月末，资金市场季节性波动。跨月结束后资金利率即回落至政策利率附近，截止3月1日，DR007报收1.82%，较上周五下行2BP；SHIBOR1W报收1.81%，较上周五下行1BP。公开市场操作方面，为了维护月末流动性平稳，央行加大了公开市场操作规模。本周内共投放7D逆回购11640亿元，利率维持1.80%；逆回购到期5320亿元、通过逆回购净投放流动性6320亿元2024年开年以来央行货币政策宽松程度超出市场预期，不仅节前在国务院新闻发布会上宣布进行结构性降息、降准，节后首周即宣布下调5年期LPR25BP至3.95%，调整幅度达到历史新高。此外，一季度以来政府债发行节奏趋缓也使得流动性挤压减轻，多重因素综合作用使得开年以来资金市场流动性一直处于较为充裕的状态。往后看，在当前内需不足、经济复苏节奏尚待提升的基本面下，3月初召开的全国两会对货币政策定调大概率仍维持宽松。但从内外部平衡和货币政策带后性有待观察的角度考虑，短期内进一步调降政策利率的需求可能并不追切，叠加会议结束后二季度政��专项债等各类政策有序推进对资金形成的高量需求，二季度流动性或边际小幅收敛美国核心PCE物价指数符合市场预期，美债收益率高位回落，人民币汇率外部压力趋缓截至3月1日，美国10年期国债收益率录得4.19%，较上周五下行7BP。2月29日，美国商务部公布的数据显示，美国1月核心PCE物价指数较12月增长0.4%，同比增加2.8%，表现符合预期。作为美联储重点关注的核心物价指数，该数据表现巩固了美联储6月开启降息的市场预期。美国10年期国债收益率高位回落，人民币汇率外部压力边际趋缓。截止3月1日，人民币兑美元即期汇率报收7.1985，周内持续小幅波动。近期市场对美联储的降息预期随着各项经济数据大幅波动。去年底以来美国通胀压力有所缓解，鲍威尔在12月召开的议息会议上宣布“降息问题已经进入视野”，美联储叙事正式转入降息范式，市场给予了积极回应，FEDWatch利率路径显示市场预期2024年3月开启降息，年内降息150BP。外部压力降低促使人民币汇率重新走出升值行情而随着开年以来美国通胀数据显示出反弹的势头，失业率回落和制造业PMI筑底回升专明美国经济韧性犹存，海外降息预期大幅降低，市场一致预期3月美联储按兵不动开启降息时点可能延后至6月份，并且年内降息幅度也缩减至75BP与此同时，2024年以来人民币汇率波动幅度却有所下降，美元兑人民币即期汇率集中在7.15-7.20小幅波动。美债利率尚处高位，中美货币政策周期错位之下，人民币汇率的外部压力较强。另一方面，国内实体基本面偏弱格局未有实质性改变。人民币汇率持续小幅盘整，表明央行对于汇率的政策调控和干预力度加强，人民币败值幅度相对可控。3月多项经济数据发布叠加止盈压力或加大债市波动截止3月1日，我国10年期国债收益率报收2.37%，较上周五下行3BP；1年期国债收益率报收1.78%，较上周五上行1BP，长端利率快速下行带动期限利差回落，本周五期限利差录得58.42BP，较上周五下行4.68BP。年后在LPR超预期大幅下调和流动性宽松助推下，10年期国债收益率下探至2.40%下方，触及2003年以来的最低点。年初两个月多项宏观经济数据指标合并发布，造成多项数据“真空”。进入3月，伴随全国两会的召开和多项宏观数据的发布，市场对稳增长政策的关注度上升。基本面上，近期数据显示国内需求有企稳向好的迹象。2月官方制造业PMI指数录得49.1，虽然受到春节假期错位因素等影响较1月份小幅回落，但是高于市场预期。2月服务业PMI回升0.9至51，零售、交运、餐饮等生活性服务业构成支撑。此外，2月23日召开的中央财经委员会第四次会议上要求推动新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，对内需有一定的提振作用。基本面边际转好迹象+稳增长政策加码发力+市场止盈压力多重作用，债市波动幅度或加大。风险提示：国际局势出现黑天鹅利空事件；海外宏观经济下行超预期；国内稳增长政策效果不及预期：国内需求端恢复速度显著偏慢', 'authorid': UUID('4742b007-903b-50d6-ade3-9921cbbf7a57'), 'sentimentScore': 0.017964929342269897, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '9U5RJSKBB80EDT7O0BK4SE2CL7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:14 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '9U5RJSKBB80EDT7O0BK4SE2CL7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f1b6772d-769e-5c70-bf93-37d5759495a2'), 'title': 'Official PMI comments in February 2024: Manufacturing PMI is stronger than seasonal, and the economy is stabilizing and provides new signals', 'author': 'Fu Yang ,Liu Qingdong', 'orgName': '中航证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000197', 'orgSName': '中航证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZz6NwctzXj4l+ikOtRI9ZYA=', 'researcher': '符旸,刘庆东', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177393', '11000268232'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZz6NwctzXj4l+ikOtRI9ZYA=', 'site': 'AVIC Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中航证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625216003_1.pdf?1709564233000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625216003_1.pdf?1709564233000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Official PMI comments in February 2024: Manufacturing PMI is stronger than seasonal, and the economy is stabilizing and provides new signals', 'originalAuthor': '符旸,刘庆东', 'originalContent': '内容摘要2024年2月官方制��业PMI录得49.1%，较上月-0.1PCTS。我们认为2月制造业PMI需从三个角度理解：其一，2月制造业PMI较1月下行符合春节导致的季节性规律。其二，从绝对水平的比较来看，2月制造业PMI与历年春节假期位于2月的年份相比不算强，制造业景气度仍有较大提升空间。其三，从环比变化的比较来看，2月制造业PMI因春节因素而较1月下行的幅度明显小于季节性，显示出较强的韧性，后续制造业景气度继续改善有望。总体来看，景气度仍处相对低位，但景气度修复速度较快是2月PMI数据的核心特征。2月制造业的需求和生产与历年同月相比均处在较弱的位置，导致2月制造业景气度总体上弱于历年2月，制造业PMI值排在历年2月靠后的位置。另一方面，2月在内需回暖的带动下，制造业总体需求正在快速修复中，制造业PMI在春节因素的作用下下滑幅度明显小于季节性。结合2月较1月上行的业务活动预期指数反映出的制造业企业预期好转，以及下滑幅度弱于季节性的进口指数和采购量指数反映出的内需韧性，预计3月制造业企业景气度有望较2月好转。今年2月，非制造业商务活动指数录得51.4%，较上月+0.7PCTS，其中，建筑业PMI为53.5%，较上月-0.4PCTS，服务业PMI为51.0%，较上月+1.0PCTS。2月建筑业景气度较1月下滑，一是受到了节假期及低温雨雪天气等因素影响，二是今年专项债发行节奏较慢，三是继续受到房地产行业不景气的拖累。建筑业的景气程度与基建和地产相关性较大，后续应重点观察房地产和基建相关政策的出台。2月服务业PMI较上月上行1.0PCTS，连续第2个月位于荣枯线之上。虽然2月服务业PMI值仍然在可比年份同月中排在靠后位置，但2月PMI较1月抬升，向好程度强于季节性，显示服务业修复速度较快，与春节期间居民消费、旅游数据的好转相互印证。去年12月中央经济工作会议后增量财政和货币政策接续出台。从近期公布的经济和金融数据看，当下我国经济已出现了一些企稳信号，政策已经开始起效。如：1月我国社融和信贷超预期，且结构性出现改善，私人部门融资需求回升；2月制造业PMI虽然因春节因素较1月下行，但同比下滑值明显小于可比年份，显示出较强韧性。此外，非制造业中的服务业PMI也显示出服务业景气度正在快速恢复中。总体来看，目前我国经济运行中，房地产仍面临较大的不确定性。截止去年年末，我国房地产行业持续不景气的状态并未得到扭转，整个行业仍然沿着居民购房意愿下降——房企回款变慢、预期转弱——房企降低房地产投资力度这一链条持续恶化。下周两会即将召开，除财政赤字水平、进一步降准降息预期等关系到今年稳增长力度的政策外，房地产行业的最新定调、乃至最新的增量稳房地产政策也应重点关注。风险提示：国内需求端恢复速度显著偏慢，稳增长政策效力不及预期', 'content': \"Content summary: The official manufacturing PMI in February 2024 recorded 49.1%, -0.1PCTS compared with the previous month. We believe that the manufacturing PMI in February needs to be understood from three perspectives: First, the downward trend in the manufacturing PMI in February compared with January is in line with the seasonal pattern caused by the Spring Festival. Second, from an absolute level comparison, the manufacturing PMI in February is not strong compared with previous years when the Spring Festival holiday falls in February, and there is still much room for improvement in the manufacturing boom. Third, from the comparison of month-on-month changes, the decline in the manufacturing PMI in February compared with January due to the Spring Festival was significantly less than seasonal, showing strong resilience, and the manufacturing boom is expected to continue to improve in the future. Overall, the prosperity level is still at a relatively low level, but the rapid recovery of the prosperity level is the core feature of the February PMI data. The demand and production of the manufacturing industry in February were at a weaker position compared with the same month in previous years. As a result, the manufacturing boom in February was generally weaker than in previous Februarys, and the manufacturing PMI value ranked at the bottom of previous Februarys. On the other hand, driven by the rebound in domestic demand in February, the overall demand in the manufacturing industry is recovering rapidly, and the decline in manufacturing PMI due to the Spring Festival factor is significantly less than seasonal. Combined with the improvement in expectations of manufacturing companies reflected in the business activity expectation index that increased in February compared with January, and the resilience of domestic demand reflected in the import index and purchase volume index whose decline was weaker than seasonal, it is expected that the prosperity of manufacturing companies in March is expected to be Better than February. In February this year, the non-manufacturing business activity index recorded 51.4%, +0.7 PCTS compared with the previous month. Among them, the construction industry PMI was 53.5%, -0.4 PCTS compared with the previous month, and the service industry PMI was 51.0%, +1.0 PCTS compared with the previous month. PCTS. The prosperity of the construction industry in February declined compared with January. First, it was affected by factors such as holidays and low temperature, rain and snow. Second, the pace of special bond issuance this year was slow. Third, it continued to be dragged down by the sluggish real estate industry. The prosperity of the construction industry is closely related to infrastructure and real estate. In the future, we should focus on observing the introduction of policies related to real estate and infrastructure. The service PMI in February increased by 1.0 PCTS from the previous month, staying above the boom-and-bust line for the second consecutive month. Although the PMI value of the service industry in February still ranked low among the same months in comparable years, the PMI in February was higher than that in January, and the improvement was stronger than the seasonality, indicating that the service industry was recovering quickly, which was in line with household consumption during the Spring Festival. The improvement in tourism data confirms each other. After the Central Economic Work Conference in December last year, incremental fiscal and monetary policies were successively introduced. Judging from the recently released economic and financial data, my country's economy has shown some signs of stabilization, and policies have begun to take effect. For example: in January, my country's social financing and credit exceeded expectations, and structural improvement occurred, and private sector financing demand rebounded; although the manufacturing PMI in February fell compared with January due to the Spring Festival factors, the year-on-year decline was significantly smaller than in comparable years, showing a strong toughness. In addition, the service PMI in the non-manufacturing industry also shows that the prosperity of the service industry is recovering rapidly. Overall, real estate is still facing great uncertainty in the current economic operation of our country. As of the end of last year, the continued sluggish state of my country's real estate industry has not been reversed. The entire industry continues to follow the chain of declining residents' willingness to buy houses - slowing down of payment collection by real estate companies and weakening expectations - real estate companies reducing their real estate investment intensity. deterioration. The two sessions will be held next week. In addition to the fiscal deficit level, expectations for further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and other policies related to the stabilization of growth this year, the latest tone of the real estate industry and even the latest incremental stabilizing real estate policies should also be focused on. Risk warning: The recovery speed of domestic demand is significantly slow, and the effectiveness of policies to stabilize growth is less than expected.\", 'authorid': UUID('a8535552-952a-5b8f-bd48-65174a3ed7ea'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9011852256953716, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KENS81V8R7R4B9P3BTOFV0JT7RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KENS81V8R7R4B9P3BTOFV0JT7RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('77009877-ed05-5abd-9d03-6790988a8df1'), 'title': 'Official PMI data update for February', 'author': 'Macro Finance Team', 'orgName': '国投安信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066669', 'orgSName': '国投安信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ6b4cDWil9o9LQX+Z4wLg+s=', 'researcher': '宏观金融团队', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000442645'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ6b4cDWil9o9LQX+Z4wLg+s=', 'site': 'SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投安信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625215365_1.pdf?1709566201000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625215365_1.pdf?1709566201000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Official PMI data update for February', 'originalAuthor': '宏观金融团队', 'originalContent': '2024年2月份，官方制造业PMI为49.1，比上月下降0.1个百分点，略低于wind一致预期49.2%；非制造业PMI为51.4，好于预期和前值的50.7，连续3个月上升：综合PMI产出指数为50.9%，与上月持平，我国企业生产经营活动总体继续扩张。制造业方面，受春节假期影响，制造业进入生产淡李，构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数均低于临界点，市场景气度总体有所下降。其中，产需指数一降一平，生产指数比上月下降1.5个百分点，表明企业生产活动有所放缓，而新订单指数与上月持平，供需缺口有所收敛，产成品库存有所下降，出厂价格指数有所拾升；不同类型企业表现分化，大型企业PMI在扩张区间特平前值，中型企业和小型企业仍在荣枯线以下，其中小型企业景气度继续回落，经济修复结构仍不均衡：生产经营活动预期指数在扩张区间比上月上升0.2个百分点，企业对未来市场发展信心总体稳定。非制造业方面，受春节假日等因素带动，与节日出行和消费密切相关的行业生产经营较为活跃，服务业扩张力度有所增强。受春节假期及低温雨雪天气等因素影响，建筑业扩张区间有所收敛，但总体延续增长态势。此外，稍晚公布的2月财新中国制造业PMI录得50.9，较上月微升0.1个百分点，2021年下半年以来首次连续四个月位于扩张区间，产需均持续扩张，新出口订单指数为一年来新高，带动财新制造业景气度持续提升。', 'content': \"In February 2024, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.1, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, slightly lower than the wind consensus expectation of 49.2%; the non-manufacturing PMI was 51.4, better than expected and the previous value of 50.7, rising for three consecutive months : The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.9%, the same as last month. The overall production and operation activities of my country's enterprises continued to expand. In terms of manufacturing, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the manufacturing industry has entered a period of slow production. The five sub-indexes that make up the manufacturing PMI are all below the critical point, and the overall market sentiment has declined. Among them, the production and demand index dropped once and flattened, and the production index dropped 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that corporate production activities have slowed down, while the new orders index remained unchanged from the previous month, the supply and demand gap has narrowed, and finished product inventories have declined. , the ex-factory price index has picked up; the performance of different types of enterprises is differentiated. The PMI of large enterprises is in the expansion range, especially the previous value. Medium-sized enterprises and small enterprises are still below the boom and bust line. Among them, the prosperity of small enterprises continues to decline, and the economic recovery structure is still Unbalanced: The expectation index for production and operating activities increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month in the expansion range, and corporate confidence in future market development was generally stable. In terms of non-manufacturing, driven by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, the production and operation of industries closely related to holiday travel and consumption are relatively active, and the expansion of the service industry has increased. Affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday and low-temperature rain and snow weather, the expansion range of the construction industry has converged, but the overall growth trend has continued. In addition, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, released later, recorded 50.9 in February, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. It has been in the expansion range for four consecutive months for the first time since the second half of 2021. Both production and demand continued to expand, and new export orders The index reached a new high in a year, driving the prosperity of Caixin's manufacturing industry to continue to improve.\", 'authorid': UUID('d4813736-c001-5f5c-bd84-39fcb960b66d'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9035896994173527, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '84FKGFGBP4TCONK71ERG0CQUAVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:19 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '84FKGFGBP4TCONK71ERG0CQUAVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2eaeb498-9f4d-5e99-b851-02caf97891f1'), 'title': 'Comments on social financing data in January: Financing demand has rebounded and the structure has been optimized', 'author': 'Zheng Jiawei', 'orgName': '甬兴证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '81119937', 'orgSName': '甬兴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ3b7Fvh69rZOAPSUTmi50Fc=', 'researcher': '郑嘉伟', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000278335'], 'count': 1, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ3b7Fvh69rZOAPSUTmi50Fc=', 'site': 'Yongxing Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '甬兴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625215041_1.pdf?1709548749000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625215041_1.pdf?1709548749000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on social financing data in January: Financing demand has rebounded and the structure has been optimized', 'originalAuthor': '郑嘉伟', 'originalContent': '核心观点事件：2024年2月9日，央行公布1月金融统计数据：2024年1月末广义货币M2同比增长8.7%，增速比前值低1.0个百分点；狭义货币M1同比增长5.9%，增速比前值高4.6个百分点。1月份社会融资规模存量同比增长9.5%；增量为6.5万亿元，比上年同期多5061亿元。融资需求回升带动社融增速超预期。1月社融同比增速为9.5%，与上月持平，新增社融6.5万亿元，比上年同期多5061亿元。1月企业债券净融资4835亿元，同比多增3197亿元；1月非标融资新增6008亿元，同比多增2523亿元。在重启抵押补充贷款（PSL)背景下，1月政府债券融资规模规模有所减小，新发行2947亿元，规模占新增社融比例低于上年同期水平。融资结构有所优化，反映需求端或有积极变化。1月人民币贷款增加4.92万亿元，同比多增162亿元。从结构上来看，居民端1月贷款增加9801亿元，同比多增7229亿元。其中，居民短贷增加3528亿元，同比多增3187亿元；居民中长贷增加6272亿元，同比多增4041亿元。居民端贷款多增或显示居民消费意愿回暖。1月企（事）业单位贷款增加3.86万亿元，同比少增8200亿元，其中，短期贷款增加1.46万亿元，同比少增500亿元；中长期贷款增加3.31万亿元，同比少增1900亿元；票据融资减少9733亿元，同比多减5606亿元。M1超预期增长带动M2-M1剪刀差收窄。春节错位下M1增速超预期同比增速为5.90%，较前值回升4.6个百分点；M2同比增速为8.70%，低于前值1.0个百分点。M2和M1增速剪刀差变动至2.80pct，绝对值收窄。从社融增速与M2增速差来看，1月份社融增速与M2增速延续了近期的回升势头。从存款数据来看，1月人民币存款增加5.48万亿元，同比少增1.39万亿元。其中，住户存款增加2.53万亿元，比上年同期少增3.67万亿元；非金融企业存款增加1.14万亿元，同比多增1.86万亿元；财政性存款增加8604亿元，同比多增1776亿元；非银行业金融机构存款增加5526亿元，同比少增4574亿元。投资建议融资需求回升，结构有所优化。企业端整体来看虽然较上年同期融资减少，但考虑到企业中长期信贷在“宽信用”周期中的滞后性，我们认为未来企业端融资或有积极变化，结合1月份企业债融资的高增长也能侧面反映企业融资需求有所上行，反映不仅实体经济融资需求有所回升，而且融资结构也有所优化。虽然当前增速数值的变化可能受到春节错位带来的基数效应扰动，但随着需求稳步回升，信贷融资需求增加，结合企业端表内融资的积极变化。我们认为，经济动能修复整体向好。短期债市调整仍是配置机会，长期来看权益资产配置的性价比提升。风险提示地缘政治风险；美联储货币政策超调；海外经济增速不及预期；国内物价变化超市场预期；上市公司业绩不及预期；市场波动超预期。', 'content': 'Core point of view event: On February 9, 2024, the central bank announced financial statistics for January: at the end of January 2024, broad money M2 increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.0 percentage points lower than the previous value; narrow money M1 increased by 5.9% year-on-year, an increase of The speed is 4.6 percentage points higher than the previous value. In January, the stock of social financing increased by 9.5% year-on-year; the increase was 6.5 trillion yuan, 506.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The rebound in financing demand has driven the growth of social financing to exceed expectations. In January, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing was 9.5%, the same as the previous month, with an increase of 6.5 trillion yuan in social financing, 506.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Net corporate bond financing in January was 483.5 billion yuan, an increase of 319.7 billion yuan year-on-year; non-standard financing increased by 600.8 billion yuan in January, an increase of 252.3 billion yuan year-on-year. In the context of restarting mortgage supplementary loans (PSL), the scale of government bond financing decreased in January, with 294.7 billion yuan of new issuances, and the proportion of the scale in new social financing was lower than the same period last year. The financing structure has been optimized, reflecting possible positive changes on the demand side. RMB loans increased by 4.92 trillion yuan in January, an increase of 16.2 billion yuan year-on-year. From a structural perspective, residential loans increased by 980.1 billion yuan in January, an increase of 722.9 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, residents\\' short-term loans increased by 352.8 billion yuan, an increase of 318.7 billion yuan year-on-year; residents\\' medium and long-term loans increased by 627.2 billion yuan, an increase of 404.1 billion yuan year-on-year. The increase in residential loans may indicate a rebound in residents\\' willingness to consume. In January, loans to enterprises (public institutions) increased by 3.86 trillion yuan, a decrease of 820 billion yuan from the same period last year. Among them, short-term loans increased by 1.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 50 billion yuan from the same period last year; medium and long-term loans increased by 3.31 trillion yuan, a decrease of 50 billion yuan from the same period last year. An increase of 190 billion yuan; bill financing decreased by 973.3 billion yuan, an increase of 560.6 billion yuan year-on-year. The higher-than-expected growth of M1 led to the narrowing of the M2-M1 scissor gap. Due to the Spring Festival misalignment, the M1 growth rate exceeded the expected year-on-year growth rate of 5.90%, 4.6 percentage points higher than the previous value; the M2 year-on-year growth rate was 8.70%, 1.0 percentage points lower than the previous value. The scissor difference between the growth rates of M2 and M1 changed to 2.80pct, and the absolute value narrowed. Judging from the difference between the growth rate of social financing and the growth rate of M2, the growth rate of social financing and the growth rate of M2 continued their recent rebound momentum in January. Judging from deposit data, RMB deposits increased by 5.48 trillion yuan in January, a decrease of 1.39 trillion yuan year-on-year. Among them, household deposits increased by 2.53 trillion yuan, 3.67 trillion yuan less than the same period last year; non-financial corporate deposits increased by 1.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.86 trillion yuan year-on-year; fiscal deposits increased by 860.4 billion yuan, an increase of 1.86 trillion yuan year-on-year. 177.6 billion yuan; deposits of non-banking financial institutions increased by 552.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 457.4 billion yuan year-on-year. Investment advice Financing demand has rebounded and the structure has been optimized. Although overall corporate financing has decreased compared with the same period last year, considering the lag in corporate mid- and long-term credit in the \"wide credit\" cycle, we believe that there may be positive changes in corporate financing in the future, combined with the high level of corporate debt financing in January. Growth can also reflect an upward trend in corporate financing needs, reflecting not only a rebound in financing demand from the real economy but also an optimization of the financing structure. Although changes in the current growth rate may be disturbed by the base effect caused by the Spring Festival dislocation, as demand steadily rebounds, the demand for credit financing increases, combined with the positive changes in corporate on-balance sheet financing. We believe that the recovery of economic momentum is generally improving. Short-term bond market adjustments are still opportunities for allocation, and in the long run, the cost-effectiveness of equity asset allocation will improve. Risks suggest geopolitical risks; the Federal Reserve\\'s monetary policy has overshooted; overseas economic growth has been slower than expected; domestic price changes have exceeded market expectations; the performance of listed companies has fallen short of expectations; and market fluctuations have exceeded expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('fb2ec772-0bf2-5ad5-9d8b-404ab9c936c4'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8473397437483072, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '2OB5I0J9K2FHNRGGII87M0MT1RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:21 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '2OB5I0J9K2FHNRGGII87M0MT1RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('83ae9607-57e7-5f4a-af84-7d2065230c91'), 'title': 'Overseas Weekly Observation: US Election, Trump’s “Eighty-One Difficulties”!', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Chen Dafei, Zhao Yu', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ+ONBD0R8OiLyoeej09WVQ8=', 'researcher': '赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000385631', '11000436531'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ+ONBD0R8OiLyoeej09WVQ8=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214929_1.pdf?1709552690000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214929_1.pdf?1709552690000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas Weekly Observation: US Election, Trump’s “Eighty-One Difficulties”!', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇', 'originalContent': '2024年美国大选处于党内初选阶段。特朗普的民调支持率略高于拜登。不确定的是，特朗普法律诉讼缠身，竞选资格纠纷未定，可谓“八十一难”！报告认为，剥夺特朗普参选资格的可能性极低，但败诉的负面影响也不可低估。热点思考：美国大选，特朗普的“八十一难”！2024年大选，特朗普面临1项宪法法律诉讼，4项刑事诉讼，2项民事诉讼案，总计91项指控，多数案件仍无定论。按重要性排序，分别为宪法法律诉讼>刑事诉讼>民事诉讼。宪法法律诉讼倾向于保留特朗普竞选资格，初步结果对特朗普较有利；四项刑事诉讼结果未定；两项民事诉讼已宣判，特朗普均败诉，但已提出上诉。民事或刑事诉讼不影响参选人竞选资格，即使被定罪也可竞选总统，但会分散竞选团队精力、影响支持率。美国宪法规定，竞选总统只需满足三项条件，一是在美国出生；二是年龄满35岁；三是在美国居住至少14年。宪法未明确规定被起诉讼就不能竞选，即使败诉，也不影响参选竞选，但可能影响其支持率。特朗普采用三大策略应对诉讼：拖延战术；借力打力；宣称总统豁免权。特朗普对各项民事、刑事诉讼均不认罪，并提出上诉，上诉程序将延迟案件审理。特朗普也在构建自己的受害者形象，根据ABC新闻的民调，46%的选民认为针对特朗普的诉讼存在政治操纵。针对2020年国会骚乱案，特朗普主张任期内享有总统豁免权。历史上，总统候选人面临法律诉讼并非罕见，其影响需具体分析。克林顿1992年竞选期间被爆出婚外情丑闻，但仍成功当选；2016年大选，特朗普面临多起民事诉讼，最终同意支付和解金；2016年，希拉里因“邮件门”遭刑事调查，虽未被定罪，但间接导致竞选失败。1920年，共和党候选人德布斯被判入狱，在监狱中参与总统竞选。若候选人成功当选，但随后法律问题发酵，此时最高法院无权判决总统无资格当选，只能由国会启动弹劾程序。代表性案例是水门事件后尼克松被迫辞职。1972年6月，水门事件发生，但尼克松当年仍以绝对优势胜选。此后随着调查的深入，尼克松直接涉案的证据逐步被揭露。1974年，美国众议院开始发起弹劾，尼克松随后自行辞职下台。若选举最终投票存在争议，引发诉讼，美国最高法院往往不倾向于改变原有投票结果。针对大选，美国最高法院的基本态度是审慎干预，尊重选举程序。2020年大选，邮寄选票引发广泛争议，特朗普选举日的领先优势被拜登逆转，随后特朗普一方发起了多达60起的诉讼，半数被驳回或撤销，最高法院事实上维持了原有投票结果不变。今年，特朗普法律争议或存在三种可能结果。情形一：特朗普大选前被直接取消竞选资格，可能性较低。因担忧党争扩大、违背程序正义、影响选民选举权等，最高法倾向于保留特朗普参选资格。基于判例法原则，最高法院仅需对科州一案做出裁决。为避免干扰大选进程，最高法判决时间可能会加快，或在选举季到来前完成此案审理。情形二：特朗普保留参选资格，但因诉讼不利，竞选失败。民调显示，特朗普若败诉，或将拉低支持率。根据今年2月份NBC的全国民调，若特朗普被判决有罪，支持率或被拜登反超，特朗普支持率将降至43%，拜登支持率则上升至45%。特朗普竞选支出中，仅法律咨询费占比就超8%，若诉讼问题继续发酵，或影响特朗普竞选资金的使用效率。情形三：特朗普保留参选资格，并成功当选，但大选后诉讼结果对其不利，特朗普或面临弹劾。美国宪法规定，总统可以因“叛国罪、贿赂和其他重罪和轻罪”而受到弹劾。美国历史上仅发生过四次总统弹劾，均以失败告终。弹劾需经国会两院通过，参考RCP大选一致预测，2024年共和党可能重新掌控两院，弹劾特朗普难度较大。海外事件&数据：美国2月制造业PMI回落，PCE通胀回落趋势不改美国2月ISM制造业PMI47.8，预期49.5，前值49.1，其中，新订单、产出和就业均出现萎缩。此外，1月居民实际消费支出走弱，2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数近三个月以来首次下降，美国终端消费走弱下，制造业需求走软。美国1月PCE物价指数同比2.4%、预期2.4%、前值2.6%，环比0.3%、预期0.3%、前值0.1%；核心PCE物价指数同比2.8%、预期2.8%、前值2.9%，环比0.4%、预期0.4%、前值0.1%。1月实际个人消费支出环比-0.1%。截至3月2日，市场定价美联储5月不降息的概率有所上升(81%)。2月28日当周，美联储总资产规模小幅下降，BTFP工具使用量微降。负债端，逆回购规模略降，准备金规模有所上升，TGA存款下降。货币市场基金规模上升。风险提示地缘政治冲突升级；美联储再次转“鹰”；金融条件加速收缩', 'content': 'The 2024 U.S. election is in the primary stage of the party. Trump\\'s poll approval rating is slightly higher than Biden\\'s. What is uncertain is that Trump is entangled in legal proceedings and the dispute over his candidacy is undecided, which can be described as \"81 difficulties\"! The report believes that the possibility of depriving Trump of his candidacy is extremely low, but the negative impact of losing the case cannot be underestimated. Hot thoughts: U.S. election, Trump’s “81st difficulty”! In the 2024 election, Trump faces 1 constitutional legal lawsuit, 4 criminal lawsuits, 2 civil lawsuits, a total of 91 charges, and most cases are still inconclusive. In order of importance, they are constitutional legal litigation > criminal litigation > civil litigation. The constitutional legal proceedings tend to preserve Trump\\'s candidacy, and the preliminary results are more favorable to Trump; the results of four criminal proceedings are undecided; two civil proceedings have been pronounced, and Trump lost both cases, but has appealed. Civil or criminal lawsuits do not affect a candidate\\'s qualifications. Even if he is convicted, he can run for president, but it will distract the campaign team\\'s energy and affect his support rate. The U.S. Constitution stipulates that to run for president, you only need to meet three conditions: first, you were born in the United States; second, you are over 35 years old; and third, you have lived in the United States for at least 14 years. The Constitution does not clearly stipulate that a person cannot run for office if he is sued. Even if he loses the lawsuit, it will not affect his candidacy, but it may affect his support rate. Trump has adopted three major strategies to deal with the lawsuit: delaying tactics; leveraging power; and claiming presidential immunity. Trump has pleaded not guilty to various civil and criminal proceedings and has appealed. The appeal process will delay the trial of the case. Trump is also constructing his image as a victim. According to an ABC News poll, 46% of voters believe that the lawsuit against Trump is politically manipulated. In response to the 2020 Congressional riot case, Trump advocated presidential immunity during his term. Historically, it is not uncommon for presidential candidates to face legal action, and the impact needs to be analyzed in detail. Clinton was exposed to an extramarital affair scandal during the 1992 campaign, but was still successfully elected; in the 2016 election, Trump faced multiple civil lawsuits and finally agreed to pay a settlement; in 2016, Hillary was criminally investigated for the \"email scandal\", although she was not He was convicted, but indirectly led to the defeat of the election. In 1920, Republican candidate Debs was jailed and campaigned for president while in prison. If a candidate is successfully elected, but then legal issues arise, the Supreme Court has no power to rule that the president is not eligible for election, and Congress can only initiate impeachment proceedings. A representative case is that of Nixon who was forced to resign after the Watergate incident. In June 1972, the Watergate scandal occurred, but Nixon still won the election with an absolute advantage. Since then, as the investigation deepened, evidence that Nixon was directly involved in the case was gradually revealed. In 1974, the U.S. House of Representatives initiated impeachment proceedings, and Nixon subsequently resigned. If the final vote of an election is controversial and triggers litigation, the U.S. Supreme Court is often not inclined to change the original voting results. Regarding the general election, the basic attitude of the U.S. Supreme Court is to intervene prudently and respect the electoral process. In the 2020 election, mail-in ballots caused widespread controversy. Trump\\'s lead on election day was reversed by Biden. Subsequently, Trump launched as many as 60 lawsuits, half of which were dismissed or dismissed. The Supreme Court actually upheld the original lawsuit. The voting result remains unchanged. There are three possible outcomes for Trump’s legal dispute this year. Scenario 1: Trump is directly disqualified from running before the election, which is less likely. Due to concerns about the expansion of partisanship, violation of procedural justice, and impact on voters\\' electoral rights, the Supreme Court is inclined to retain Trump\\'s qualification to run. Based on the principles of case law, the Supreme Court only needs to decide the Colorado case. In order to avoid interfering with the election process, the Supreme Court may speed up the ruling or complete the case before the election season. Scenario 2: Trump retains his qualification to run, but loses the campaign due to adverse lawsuits. Polls show that if Trump loses the case, his approval rating may drop. According to an NBC national poll in February this year, if Trump is found guilty, his approval rating may be overtaken by Biden. Trump\\'s approval rating will drop to 43%, while Biden\\'s approval rating will rise to 45%. Legal consulting fees alone account for more than 8% of Trump\\'s campaign expenditures. If litigation issues continue to ferment, it may affect the efficiency of the use of Trump\\'s campaign funds. Scenario 3: Trump retains his qualifications to run and is successfully elected, but the outcome of the post-election litigation is unfavorable to him, and Trump may face impeachment. The U.S. Constitution states that a president can be impeached for \"treason, bribery, and other high crimes and misdemeanors.\" There have been only four presidential impeachments in U.S. history, all of which ended in failure. Impeachment needs to be approved by both houses of Congress. Referring to the unanimous prediction of the RCP election, the Republican Party may regain control of both houses in 2024, making it difficult to impeach Trump. Overseas events & data: The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell back in February, and the downward trend of PCE inflation did not change. The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in February was 47.8, which was expected to be 49.5 and the previous value was 49.1. Among them, new orders, output and employment all shrank. In addition, residents\\' actual consumption expenditure weakened in January, and the University of Michigan\\'s consumer confidence index fell for the first time in nearly three months in February. As U.S. terminal consumption weakened, manufacturing demand weakened. The PCE price index in the United States in January was 2.4% year-on-year, 2.4% expected, and the previous value was 2.6%, and 0.3% month-on-month, and 0.3% expected, and the previous value was 0.1%; the core PCE price index was 2.8% year-on-year, 2.8% expected, and the previous value was 2.9%, and the month-on-month 0.4%, expected 0.4%, previous value 0.1%. Actual personal consumption expenditures in January were -0.1% month-on-month. As of March 2, the market priced in an increased probability (81%) that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates in May. In the week of February 28, the total assets of the Federal Reserve decreased slightly, and the use of BTFP tools decreased slightly. On the liability side, the scale of reverse repurchase decreased slightly, the scale of reserves increased, and TGA deposits decreased. The size of money market funds increased. Risks prompt the escalation of geopolitical conflicts; the Fed turns \"hawk\" again; financial conditions accelerate contraction', 'authorid': UUID('5561e32c-d3e7-5cc0-a5d5-33281e23a919'), 'sentimentScore': -0.4418483003973961, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '7CJ3J5B2FIL7OF9G7H8O4RK14VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:25 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '7CJ3J5B2FIL7OF9G7H8O4RK14VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1f1cff86-e37a-5d72-939d-5e61563887d2'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: Accelerate the development of new productive forces, U.S. economic data revised downwards', 'author': 'Ye Fan, Wang Runmeng, Liu Yanhong', 'orgName': '西南证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000296', 'orgSName': '西南证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZzh0F4mBxAphRAANgogX20w=', 'researcher': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000263735', '11000418732', '11000440469'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZzh0F4mBxAphRAANgogX20w=', 'site': 'Southwest Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '西南证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214921_1.pdf?1709543155000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214921_1.pdf?1709543155000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: Accelerate the development of new productive forces, U.S. economic data revised downwards', 'originalAuthor': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'originalContent': '摘要一周大事记国内：资本市场加强法治建设，政治局会议强调新质生产力。2月26日，国务院进行第六次专题学习，提出加快完善全国统一大市场基础制度规则，有助于进一步促进我国内循环，逐步释放消费潜力；同日，中国人民银行召开做好金融五篇大文章工作座谈会，着力做好科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、��字金融五篇大文章，后续金融对于五大方面的投入也将较大，细节规定上可能进一步细化，赋能实体经济发展；27日，吴清主持召开资本市场法治建设座谈会，就完善资本市场基础制度、加强法治保障听取意见建议，后续资本市场制度有望不断完善优化，从而助力投资者信心回升；28日，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波发表2024至2025财政年度特区政府《财政预算案》，后续离岸人民币流动性将逐步提高，互联互通机制将持续深化；29日中共中央政治局召开会议，政策仍强调对新质生产力、扩大需求、防范化解重点领域风险等领域的政策倾斜和关注。海外：美国去年四季度经济增速下修，日本通胀回落幅度小于预期。当地时间2月26日，美国1月新屋销售录得66.1万户，低于预期，新房供应量攀升至45.6万套，为一年多来的最高水平，美国房贷利率近来再次上升，可能会令房地产市场压力逐渐显现；当地时间27日，日本1月CPI同比上涨2.2%，虽较前值放缓，但明显高于预期，后续需要关注3月份日本春季劳资谈判的结果，以及服务价格是否能够在劳动力成本的推动下保持上涨态势；当地时间28日，欧元区2月经济景气指数录得95.4，连续三个月走低，低于预期，短期来看，预计在高利率以及通胀压力不减下，欧洲经济或仍偏弱，经济能否在中期企稳回升仍取决于通胀水平能否如期走低；同日，美国四季度GDP年化季环比修正值下修至3.2%，不及预期，目前看美国数据仍有短期扰动的影响，经济和通胀韧性较强，建议密切关注2月主要数据的变化；当地时间29日，法国2月CPI同比初值录得2.9%，高于预期，德国2月CPI同比初值录得2.5%，低于预期，预计短期欧洲通胀将延续下行趋势，但下降速率在国家之间或有所分化。高频数据：上游：本周布伦特原油现货均价周环比下降1.97%，铁矿石价格周环比下降3.58%，阴极铜价格周环比略升0.1%；中游：螺纹钢价格周环比下降0.88%，秦皇岛港动力煤平仓价周环比下降1.55%，水泥价格指数周环比上涨0.16％；下游：商品房成交面积周环比上升91.91％，2月1-25日，乘用车市场零售同比下降25%；物价：蔬菜价格周环比下降2.35%，猪肉价格回升4.04%。下周重点关注：十四届全国人大二次会议、日本2月东京CPI同比、欧元区1月PPI、美国2月ISM非制造业指数（周二）；欧元区1月零售销售同比、美国2月ADP就业人数变动、1月JOLTS职位空缺（周三）；中国1-2月进出口数据（待定）、美联储褐皮书、欧洲央行利率决议（周四）；美国2月非农就业人口变动、失业率（周五）；中国2月CPI、PPI（周六）。风险提示：国内经济复苏不及预期，海外经济超预期下行。', 'content': \"Summary of major domestic events of the week: The capital market strengthens the construction of the rule of law, and the Politburo meeting emphasizes new productivity. On February 26, the State Council held its sixth special study session, proposing to speed up the improvement of the basic system and rules of the national unified large market, which will help further promote China's domestic circulation and gradually release consumption potential; on the same day, the People's Bank of China held a five-part meeting on how to do a good job in finance. The article work symposium will focus on five major articles: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance. Subsequent financial investment in the five major aspects will also be greater, and the detailed regulations may be further refined to empower Development of the real economy; on the 27th, Wu Qing presided over a symposium on the construction of the rule of law in the capital market to listen to opinions and suggestions on improving the basic system of the capital market and strengthening the protection of the rule of law. The subsequent capital market system is expected to continue to be improved and optimized, thus helping to restore investor confidence; on the 28th , Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po of the Hong Kong SAR Government released the SAR Government’s Budget for the 2024-2025 fiscal year, and the subsequent offshore RMB liquidity will gradually increase, and the interconnection mechanism will continue to deepen; on the 29th, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, and the policy It still emphasizes policy preference and attention to areas such as new productive forces, expanding demand, and preventing and resolving risks in key areas. Overseas: The U.S. economic growth rate was revised downward in the fourth quarter of last year, and Japan's inflation fell less than expected. On February 26, local time, new home sales in the United States recorded 661,000 units in January, lower than expected. The supply of new homes climbed to 456,000 units, the highest level in more than a year. U.S. mortgage interest rates have risen again recently, which may cause Pressure on the real estate market is gradually emerging; on the 27th local time, Japan's CPI in January rose 2.2% year-on-year. Although it slowed down from the previous value, it was significantly higher than expected. In the future, we need to pay attention to the results of Japan's spring labor negotiations in March and whether service prices can be maintained. The upward trend is maintained driven by labor costs; on the 28th local time, the Eurozone economic sentiment index recorded 95.4 in February, falling for three consecutive months and lower than expected. In the short term, it is expected that high interest rates and inflationary pressures will not abate. , the European economy may still be weak, and whether the economy can stabilize and recover in the medium term still depends on whether the inflation level can fall as expected; on the same day, the revised annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP of the United States in the fourth quarter was revised down to 3.2%, which is lower than expected. Currently, we look at the U.S. data There are still short-term disturbances, and the economy and inflation are relatively resilient. It is recommended to pay close attention to changes in major data in February; on the 29th local time, France’s February CPI initial value recorded 2.9% year-on-year, higher than expected, and Germany’s February CPI year-on-year The initial value was 2.5%, lower than expected. European inflation is expected to continue its downward trend in the short term, but the rate of decline may differ between countries. High-frequency data: Upstream: The average spot price of Brent crude oil fell by 1.97% week-on-week this week, the price of iron ore fell by 3.58% week-on-week, and the price of cathode copper rose slightly by 0.1% week-on-week; midstream: the price of rebar fell by 0.88% week-on-week. %, Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal closing price decreased by 1.55% week-on-week, and the cement price index increased by 0.16% week-on-week; downstream: commercial housing transaction area increased by 91.91% week-on-week. From February 1 to 25, the retail sales of the passenger car market decreased by 25% year-on-year. %; Prices: Vegetable prices fell by 2.35% week-on-week, and pork prices rebounded by 4.04%. Focus next week: the second session of the 14th National People’s Congress, Japan’s Tokyo CPI in February year-on-year, the Eurozone’s January PPI, the United States’ February ISM non-manufacturing index (Tuesday); the Eurozone’s January retail sales year-on-year, the United States’ February Changes in ADP employment, JOLTS job vacancies in January (Wednesday); China's import and export data from January to February (to be determined), the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision (Thursday); changes in U.S. non-farm payroll employment in February, unemployment Rate (Friday); China’s February CPI and PPI (Saturday). Risk warning: The domestic economic recovery is less than expected, and the overseas economy is declining more than expected.\", 'authorid': UUID('d3389991-b216-5572-82e3-6396ad6aed04'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6258236421272159, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'HDJKTLOVV8JT5V50DF6R2CDLI3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:28 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'HDJKTLOVV8JT5V50DF6R2CDLI3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('678ca5fb-df40-5509-81bb-54225b78a991'), 'title': 'Overseas Macro Weekly Report: The Fed’s tone is relatively neutral', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Fan Chengkai', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ+S6RME++yDDqq+LvCsnwpA=', 'researcher': '钟正生,范城恺', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000369143'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ+S6RME++yDDqq+LvCsnwpA=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214922_1.pdf?1709543155000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214922_1.pdf?1709543155000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas Macro Weekly Report: The Fed’s tone is relatively neutral', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,范城恺', 'originalContent': '海外经济政策。1）美国：美联储发布半年度货币政策报告，强调通胀回落进展，提及关注住房、银行等领域的风险。近一周美联储官员密集发声，整体语调较为中性，弱化单月通胀数据影响，预期今年晚些时候降息。CME降息预期近一周波动不大，6月首次降息概率由67%下降至63%，预期全年降息3.3次。美国2023年四季度GDP环比折年率由3.3%小幅下修至3.2%，但私人消费与PCE通胀率均上修。美国1月PCE和核心PCE分别为2.4%和2.8%，均符合预期；居民储蓄率小幅上升至3.8%。美国初请失业金人数反弹，续请失业金人数创近三个月新高。2）欧洲：欧元区2月HICP和核心HICP同比分别为2.6%和3.1%，回落幅度不及预期。欧元区2月制造业PMI上修，西班牙进入扩张区间，但德国制造业景气恶化。全球大类资产。1）股市：全球股市涨跌互现，越南股市领涨全球，日本和德国股票在发达市场中表现较佳。美国方面，纳斯达克综指、标普500指数和道琼斯工业指数整周分别上涨1.7%、上涨0.9%和下跌0.1%。AI概念再次领军，英伟达市值企稳在2万亿美元以上收市，驱动纳斯达克指数与标普500指数升上历史新高。不过，纽约社区银行股价暴跌。德国DAX整周上涨1.8%，领涨欧股。日经225整周上涨2.1%，继续刷新历史新高。越南胡志明指数整周大涨3.8%。越南总理25年来首次主持关于股市发展的讨论，力争到2025年将越南股市从前沿市场提升为新兴市场。2）债市：多数期限美债利率回落。10年美债收益率下跌7BP至4.19%，实际利率整周下跌9BP至1.87%，隐含通胀预期整周上升2BP至2.32%。一方面，纽约社区银行股价崩溃引发了市场对美国地区银行房地产暴露的担忧，刺激债券收益率下行；另一方面，市场对美联储放缓缩表的注意力上升。3）商品：国际油价大幅上涨，金价也保持涨势，其他商品表现分化。原油方面，布伦特和WTI原油整周分别上涨2.4%和4.5%，分别至83.6和80.0美元/桶。俄罗斯禁止汽油出口6个月。OPEC+将自愿减产协议延长至第二季度甚至年底。4）外汇：美元指数整周小幅下跌0.09%至103.88，日元和欧元走强，但英镑仍疲弱。欧洲方面，欧元区制造业PMI终值超预期上修，提振欧元表现。日本方面，尽管日本通胀处于回落通道，但日银转向预期有所升温，提振日元。风险提示：美国经济和通胀超预期上行，美联储降息预期超预期推迟，国际金融风险超预期上升等。', 'content': \"Overseas economic policy. 1) United States: The Federal Reserve released its semi-annual monetary policy report, emphasizing the progress of the fall in inflation and mentioning risks in housing, banking and other fields. Federal Reserve officials have spoken intensively in the past week, and their overall tone has been relatively neutral, weakening the impact of single-month inflation data and anticipating an interest rate cut later this year. CME interest rate cut expectations have not fluctuated much in the past week. The probability of the first interest rate cut in June has dropped from 67% to 63%, and it is expected to cut interest rates 3.3 times throughout the year. The U.S. GDP annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 was slightly revised down from 3.3% to 3.2%, but the private consumption and PCE inflation rates were both revised upwards. The U.S. PCE and core PCE in January were 2.4% and 2.8% respectively, both in line with expectations; the household savings rate increased slightly to 3.8%. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States rebounded, and the number of continuing jobless claims hit a three-month high. 2) Europe: The Eurozone’s HICP and core HICP in February were 2.6% and 3.1% year-on-year respectively, and the decline was less than expected. The manufacturing PMI of the Eurozone in February was revised upward, with Spain entering the expansion range, but the German manufacturing boom deteriorated. Major global asset classes. 1) Stock market: Global stock markets were mixed, with Vietnam’s stock market leading the global gains, and Japanese and German stocks performing better in developed markets. In the United States, the Nasdaq Composite Index, the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.7%, 0.9% and 0.1% respectively for the week. The AI \\u200b\\u200bconcept once again took the lead, and NVIDIA's market value stabilized at more than US$2 trillion and closed at the end of the day, driving the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes to record highs. However, shares of New York Community Bank plummeted. Germany's DAX rose 1.8% for the week, leading European stocks higher. The Nikkei 225 rose 2.1% for the whole week and continued to set a new all-time high. Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index rose 3.8% throughout the week. The Prime Minister of Vietnam hosted a discussion on the development of the stock market for the first time in 25 years, striving to upgrade the Vietnamese stock market from a frontier market to an emerging market by 2025. 2) Bond market: U.S. bond interest rates have fallen for most maturities. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 7 BP to 4.19%, the actual interest rate fell 9 BP to 1.87% throughout the week, and the implied inflation expectation rose 2 BP to 2.32% throughout the week. On the one hand, the collapse of New York community bank stock prices triggered market concerns about the real estate exposure of regional banks in the United States, stimulating a decline in bond yields; on the other hand, the market's attention to the Federal Reserve's slowdown in balance sheet tightening increased. 3) Commodities: International oil prices rose sharply, gold prices also maintained an upward trend, and other commodities performed divergently. In terms of crude oil, Brent and WTI crude oil rose 2.4% and 4.5% respectively throughout the week, to 83.6 and 80.0 US dollars per barrel respectively. Russia bans gasoline exports for 6 months. OPEC+ will extend the voluntary production reduction agreement until the second quarter or even the end of the year. 4) Foreign exchange: The U.S. dollar index fell slightly by 0.09% to 103.88 throughout the week. The Japanese yen and the euro strengthened, but the pound remained weak. In Europe, the final value of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI was revised higher than expected, boosting the performance of the euro. In Japan, although Japan's inflation is on a downward path, the Bank of Japan's turn to expectations has increased, boosting the yen. Risk warning: The U.S. economy and inflation are rising more than expected, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is expected to be delayed beyond expectations, and international financial risks are rising more than expected, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('1faba558-17d3-5821-ae0e-e52593c216b5'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7738703042268753, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'IMTT4CDHU9BPTDTMFBJQEVEIA3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:31 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'IMTT4CDHU9BPTDTMFBJQEVEIA3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e34039e0-e795-546f-8671-9c7c1c54f596'), 'title': 'Major Assets Monthly Report No. 10: Outlook for March: Will the “Stock and Bond Seesaw” Reappear?', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Jia Luxi, Li Xinyue', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ4zyFwdHv7ZxN4zBCwtvbK8=', 'researcher': '赵伟,贾璐熙,李欣越', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000456132', '11000446746'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ4zyFwdHv7ZxN4zBCwtvbK8=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214891_1.pdf?1709551884000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214891_1.pdf?1709551884000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Major Assets Monthly Report No. 10: Outlook for March: Will the “Stock and Bond Seesaw” Reappear?', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,贾璐熙,李欣越', 'originalContent': '2月，海外市场继续“高歌猛进”、美欧日股指屡创新高；国内市场情绪明显改善，“股债双牛”行情再现。海外新高背后的“分化”、“股债跷跷板”会否重现？本文分析，可供参考。热点思考：3月展望，“股债跷跷板”重现？一、2月海外市场主线？经济韧性叠加AI行情，美欧日股指均创历史新高2月美债收益率反弹，商品价格震荡走弱，但权益市场对分母端冲击却“钝感力”十足，美欧日股市不断刷新历史新高。2月，10Y美债利率上行26bp至4.25%，对商品价格形成压制、彭博商品指数震荡走低5.1%。但权益市场却未受冲击，2月23日，标普500、道指、斯托克600均创历史新高；日经225更是全月大涨10.0%、不断刷新历史新高。经济的韧性或是海外交易的主线逻辑，AI行情则是本轮海外股指上涨的主要支撑。2月以来，海外经济明显走强，降息预期的后移、股市周期板块的超涨、需求敏感型商品的相对走强均是对此的反映。与此同时，OpenAI新推出的SORA与大超预期的英伟达季报，也点燃了市场对AI的“热情”，半导体板块贡献了标普500、日经225在2月涨幅的四成。二、2月国内市场焦点？资本市场流动性改善，“股债双牛”行情再现2月初，在“雪球”敲入、融资平仓、质押平仓等流动性冲击下，国内股指一度大幅下行、在2月5日触及近5年新低。1）1月22日至2月5日，“雪球”集中敲入约2000亿；2）1月29日-2月5日，市场融资余额快速下降了1500亿；3）以质押率60%和平仓线140%进行估算，截至2月2日，大股东疑似触及平仓市值较12月底增加约2400亿。随着流动性风险缓和，权益市场情绪明显改善；“股债跷跷板”却并未出现，债市收益率继续下行、创近20年来新低。2月6日以来，在监管改革与降息等利好下，市场情绪逐步回暖、A股情绪指数由27.1升至38.2，A股开启一轮修复行情。而在流动性环境的边际转松的带动下，国债收益率仍延续下行：10Y国债收益率下行9.5bp、创近20年新低。三、3月市场如何演绎？海外股市行情或走向分化，国内“股债跷跷板”有望重现海外市场，分母端短期的高位震荡，或带来美股上行动能减弱，而上行基础更为“坚实”的日欧市场行情或有望延续。当下，美股估值已至相对高位，短期经济韧性与通胀粘性或驱动美债收益率继续攀高，以信息技术、工业等为代表的高估值板块波动或将加剧。区别于美股，日、欧股市上行基础更为“坚实”、估值也更“合理”，行情或有望得以延续。国内市场，基本面预期改善、风险偏好抬升与长线资金的支撑，或将助力A股的修复，“股债跷跷板”或将重现。随着基本面筑底改善、流动性风险相继释放，股市的利多因素正在累积。而债市方面，当前收益率已与资金利率明显背离。政府债券发行节奏对资金面的潜在扰动，股市预期改善后、前期“拥挤”机构行为的调整，或将放大债市的波动。月度回顾：海外股指多创历史新高，中国国债收益率全线下行（2024/02/01-2024/02/29）股票市场：发达国家股指多数上涨，新兴市场股指多数上涨。发达国家市场，道琼斯指数、标普500指数以及德国DAX指数均达到历史新高，分别上涨2.2%、5.2%以及4.6%；新兴市场，上证综指上涨8.1%、修复行情突出。债券市场：发达国家10年期国债收益率多数上涨，中国国债收益率下行至历史新低。10年期国债收益率方面，美国上行26bp至4.25%，英国上行30bp至4.19%；中国国债收益率中，2年期下行至2.05%，10年期下行至2.34%。外汇市场：美元指数上行,人民币小幅贬值。美元指数上行0.6%至104.1。欧元兑美元贬值0.1%，英镑兑美元贬值0.5%，日元兑美元升值2.1%，美元兑在岸人民币升至7.19，美元兑离岸人民币升至7.21。商品市场：原油全线上涨，贵金属走势分化，有色多数下跌。LME镍、焦煤领涨，分别上涨8.6%、7.5%；COMEX黄金涨0.3%至2043.1美元/盎司，通胀预期从前值的2.2%升至2.3%，10Y美债实际收益率从前值的1.7%升至1.9%。风险提示俄乌冲突再起波澜；大宗商品价格反弹；美欧工资增速放缓不达预期', 'content': 'In February, overseas markets continued to \"make rapid progress\", and the US, European and Japanese stock indexes hit new highs repeatedly; domestic market sentiment improved significantly, and the \"stock and bond bullish\" market reappeared. Will the \"differentiation\" and \"stock-bond seesaw\" behind new overseas highs reappear? The analysis in this article is for reference. Hot thoughts: Outlook for March, will the “stock and bond seesaw” reappear? 1. Main line of overseas markets in February? Economic resilience superimposed on the AI \\u200b\\u200bmarket, the US, Europe and Japan stock indexes all hit record highs. US bond yields rebounded in February, and commodity prices fluctuated and weakened. However, the equity market was \"insensitive\" to the impact on the denominator side. The US, Europe and Japan stock markets continued to set new records. new highs. In February, the 10Y U.S. bond interest rate rose by 26bp to 4.25%, suppressing commodity prices, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index fluctuated and fell by 5.1%. However, the equity market was not affected. On February 23, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Stoxx 600 all hit record highs; the Nikkei 225 surged 10.0% throughout the month, constantly setting new record highs. The resilience of the economy may be the main logic of overseas transactions, and the AI \\u200b\\u200bmarket is the main support for this round of rise in overseas stock indexes. Since February, the overseas economy has strengthened significantly, which is reflected in the postponement of interest rate cut expectations, the overshooting of stock market cyclical sectors, and the relative strength of demand-sensitive commodities. At the same time, OpenAI\\'s newly launched SORA and Nvidia\\'s quarterly report, which exceeded expectations, also ignited the market\\'s \"enthusiasm\" for AI. The semiconductor sector contributed 40% of the gains in the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 in February. 2. What is the focus of the domestic market in February? Liquidity in the capital market has improved, and the \"stock and bond bullish\" market has reappeared. In early February, under the impact of liquidity such as \"snowball\" knock-in, financing liquidation, and pledge liquidation, the domestic stock index once fell sharply, hitting the A new low in the past five years. 1) From January 22 to February 5, \"Snowball\" concentrated on knocking in about 200 billion; 2) From January 29 to February 5, the market financing balance dropped rapidly by 150 billion; 3) With a pledge rate of 60 % is estimated based on 140% of the closing line. As of February 2, the market value of major shareholders suspected of closing positions increased by approximately 240 billion compared with the end of December. As liquidity risks eased, equity market sentiment improved significantly; the \"stock-bond seesaw\" did not appear, and bond market yields continued to decline, hitting a new low in the past 20 years. Since February 6, with the favorable effects of regulatory reforms and interest rate cuts, market sentiment has gradually recovered, with the A-share sentiment index rising from 27.1 to 38.2, and A-shares have begun a round of market recovery. Driven by the marginal easing of the liquidity environment, government bond yields continued to decline: the 10Y government bond yield fell by 9.5bp, hitting a new low in the past 20 years. 3. How will the market perform in March? Overseas stock market conditions may diverge, and the domestic \"stock-bond seesaw\" is expected to reappear in overseas markets. Short-term high fluctuations on the denominator side may weaken the upward momentum of U.S. stocks, while the Japanese and European market conditions may have a more \"solid\" upward foundation. continue. At present, the valuation of U.S. stocks has reached a relatively high level. Short-term economic resilience and inflation stickiness may drive U.S. bond yields to continue to rise. Volatility in highly valued sectors represented by information technology and industry may intensify. Different from U.S. stocks, the upward foundation of Japanese and European stock markets is more \"solid\" and the valuation is more \"reasonable\". The market may be expected to continue. In the domestic market, improved fundamental expectations, rising risk appetite and the support of long-term funds may help the recovery of A-shares, and the \"stock-bond seesaw\" may reappear. As fundamentals improve and liquidity risks are released, bullish factors in the stock market are accumulating. In the bond market, the current yield has deviated significantly from the funding interest rate. The potential disruption to funding from the pace of government bond issuance, as well as the improvement in stock market expectations and adjustments to the behavior of “crowded” institutions in the early stages, may amplify the volatility of the bond market. Monthly review: Most overseas stock indexes hit record highs, and Chinese government bond yields fell across the board (2024/02/01-2024/02/29) Stock market: Most stock indexes in developed countries rose, and most stock indexes in emerging markets rose. In developed markets, the Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 Index and Germany\\'s DAX Index all reached record highs, rising 2.2%, 5.2% and 4.6% respectively; in emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 8.1%, with outstanding recovery trends. Bond market: Most developed countries’ 10-year government bond yields rose, while China’s government bond yields fell to a record low. In terms of 10-year government bond yields, the United States rose 26bp to 4.25%, and the United Kingdom rose 30bp to 4.19%. Among Chinese government bond yields, the 2-year government bond yields fell to 2.05%, and the 10-year government bond yields fell to 2.34%. Foreign exchange market: The U.S. dollar index rose and the RMB depreciated slightly. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.6% to 104.1. The euro depreciated against the US dollar by 0.1%, the pound against the US dollar depreciated by 0.5%, the Japanese yen appreciated by 2.1% against the US dollar, the US dollar against the onshore RMB rose to 7.19, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB rose to 7.21. Commodity market: Crude oil rose across the board, precious metals showed mixed trends, and most non-ferrous metals fell. LME nickel and coking coal led the gains, rising 8.6% and 7.5% respectively; COMEX gold rose 0.3% to US$2,043.1 per ounce, inflation expectations rose to 2.3% from the previous value of 2.2%, and the actual yield of 10Y U.S. Treasury bonds rose from 1.7% to the previous value. to 1.9%. Risks suggest renewed conflict between Russia and Ukraine; commodity prices rebound; wage growth in the United States and Europe slows down less than expected', 'authorid': UUID('6120e22e-df37-5105-8a6c-dafce37f539a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.1437734179198742, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TGG8PCG0CN43ID1L8LRLNJ8GD7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:34 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TGG8PCG0CN43ID1L8LRLNJ8GD7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('db558edc-86ff-58ac-a0a1-724a17a13704'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: Policy signals released intensively before the two sessions', 'author': 'He Ning', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZxoYnaCjSUNKc2U98IYzTTU=', 'researcher': '何宁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZxoYnaCjSUNKc2U98IYzTTU=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214907_1.pdf?1709543460000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214907_1.pdf?1709543460000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: Policy signals released intensively before the two sessions', 'originalAuthor': '何宁', 'originalContent': '国内宏观政策：加大宏观调控力度近两周（2月19日-3月2日）国内宏观主要聚焦以下几个方面：近期中央重要会议讨论了土地管理制度改革、大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新、推进全国统一大市场建设等。中央全面深化改革委员会第四次会议强调，要建立健全同宏观政策、区域发展更加高效衔接的土地管理制度，增强土地要素对优势地区高质量发展保障能力。中央财经委员会召开第四次会议，研究大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新问题，研究有效降低全社会物流成本问题。国务院总理在主持国务院专题学习时指出，推进全国统一大市场建设具有很强的战略性、全局性，无论对当前还是长远都至关重要。国务院常务会议审议通过《推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案》，会议指出，要加大财税、金融等政策支持，有序推进重点行业设备、建筑和市政基础设施领域设备、交通运输设备和老旧农业机械、教育医疗设备等更新改造，积极开展汽车、家电等消费品以旧换新。基建与产业方面，政策聚焦国资委强调中央企业加快布局和发展智能产业，工信部发布《工业领域数据安全能力提升实施方案（2024-2026年）》和《关于加快推动制造业绿色化发展的指导意见》，讨论工业领域数据安全保障体系和制造业绿色低碳转型。货币政策方面，央行2月21日下调5年期LPR25个基点至3.95%。对银行的影响来看，我们测算本次降息约压降2024年银行5BP净息差，而此前降存款利率等释放了一定净息差空间。2022年4月至今5次降存款利率总计提高2024年银行净息差9.4个BP，提高2025年银行净息差5.8个BP。降准提升上市银行净息差约1个BP，则前期操作对2024年银行负债端共提升10个BP。向后看，当前通胀水平偏低阻碍实际利率下行，政策利率仍有向下的必要，随着后续海外货币政策转向，或打开央行降息空间。地产政策方面，住建部、金融监管总局联合召开城市房地产融资协调机制工作视频调度会议。截至2月28日，全国31个省份276个城市已建立城市融资协调机制，共提出房地产项目约6000个，商业银行快速进行项目筛选，审批通过贷款超2000亿元。消费政策方面，2024年全国消费促进月启动，商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示，在新春消费旺季和各项政策措施带动下，预计一季度消费市场将呈现平稳增长态势。贸易政策方面，近两周政策聚焦国务院批复同意《上海东方枢纽国际商务合作区建设总体方案》、深圳发布促进汽车出口方案等。金融监管，近两周政策聚焦证监会将加强上市公司监管、证监会召开资本市场法治建设座谈会并听取意见、对DMA等场外衍生品业务继续强化监管等。海外宏观政策：美欧央行仍保持高利率过去两周（2月19日-3月2日），海外宏观关注美联储会议纪要和利率讨论，美联储官员普遍表态不会过早降息；欧央行官员提示可能6月开始降息，欧央行还未实现通胀目标。美联储会议纪要显示，多数美联储官员认为，政策利率可能处于峰值，在更有信心通胀会达标前，不适合降息。欧洲央行1月货币政策会议纪要显示，欧央行管委会普遍认为现在讨论降息为时过早，过早降息比过度紧缩更加危险。风险提示：国内外货币政策持续分化，国内政策执行力度不及预期。', 'content': 'Domestic macro policy: Intensify macro-control efforts. In the past two weeks (February 19-March 2), domestic macro has mainly focused on the following aspects: The recent important central meeting discussed the reform of the land management system, large-scale equipment updates and the trade-in of consumer goods. , Promote the construction of a national unified market, etc. The fourth meeting of the Central Commission for Comprehensive Deepening Reform emphasized the need to establish and improve a land management system that is more efficiently connected with macro policies and regional development, and to enhance the ability of land elements to guarantee high-quality development in advantageous areas. The Central Financial and Economic Commission held its fourth meeting to study the issue of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, and to study the issue of effectively reducing logistics costs for the whole society. When presiding over the special study of the State Council, the Premier of the State Council pointed out that promoting the construction of a unified national market has a strong strategic and overall significance, and is crucial for both the present and the long term. The State Council executive meeting reviewed and approved the \"Action Plan for Promoting Large-Scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods\". The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to increase fiscal, taxation, financial and other policy support, and orderly promote key industry equipment, construction and municipal infrastructure equipment, transportation equipment and Old agricultural machinery, educational and medical equipment, etc. are updated and renovated, and consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances are actively traded in for new ones. In terms of infrastructure and industry, policy focuses on the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasizing that central enterprises accelerate the layout and development of smart industries. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the \"Implementation Plan for Improving Data Security Capabilities in the Industrial Sector (2024-2026)\" and the \"Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Green Development of the Manufacturing Industry\" \", discussing the data security system in the industrial field and the green and low-carbon transformation of the manufacturing industry. In terms of monetary policy, the central bank lowered the 5-year LPR by 25 basis points to 3.95% on February 21. From the perspective of the impact on banks, we estimate that this interest rate cut will reduce the bank\\'s net interest margin by approximately 5 BP in 2024, while previous reductions in deposit interest rates have released a certain amount of net interest margin space. The five deposit rate cuts from April 2022 to now will increase the bank\\'s net interest margin by a total of 9.4 BP in 2024 and 5.8 BP in 2025. The RRR cut will increase the net interest margin of listed banks by about 1 BP, and the previous operations will increase the bank\\'s liability side by a total of 10 BP in 2024. Looking backward, the current low inflation level hinders the downward movement of real interest rates, and it is still necessary for policy interest rates to fall. With the subsequent shift in overseas monetary policies, the central bank may have room to cut interest rates. In terms of real estate policy, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Administration of Financial Supervision jointly held a video scheduling meeting on the work of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism. As of February 28, 276 cities in 31 provinces across the country have established urban financing coordination mechanisms, and a total of about 6,000 real estate projects have been proposed. Commercial banks have quickly screened projects and approved loans exceeding 200 billion yuan. In terms of consumer policy, the National Consumption Promotion Month will be launched in 2024. Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong said that driven by the New Year consumption season and various policies and measures, the consumer market is expected to show steady growth in the first quarter. In terms of trade policy, the policies in the past two weeks have focused on the State Council’s approval of the “Overall Plan for the Construction of the Shanghai Oriental Hub International Business Cooperation Zone” and Shenzhen’s release of a plan to promote automobile exports. Financial supervision, in the past two weeks, policies have focused on the fact that the China Securities Regulatory Commission will strengthen the supervision of listed companies, the China Securities Regulatory Commission will hold a symposium on the construction of the rule of law in the capital market and listen to opinions, and continue to strengthen supervision of over-the-counter derivatives businesses such as DMA. Overseas macro policy: The U.S. and European central banks still maintain high interest rates. In the past two weeks (February 19-March 2), overseas macroeconomics focused on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and interest rate discussions. Federal Reserve officials generally stated that they would not cut interest rates prematurely; ECB officials reminded Interest rates may begin to be cut in June, but the European Central Bank has not yet achieved its inflation target. Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that most Fed officials believe that policy interest rates may be at their peak, and it is not appropriate to cut interest rates until they are more confident that inflation will reach target. The minutes of the European Central Bank\\'s January monetary policy meeting showed that the ECB Governing Council generally believed that it was too early to discuss interest rate cuts, and that premature interest rate cuts were more dangerous than excessive tightening. Risk warning: Domestic and foreign monetary policies continue to diverge, and domestic policy implementation is less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('52a5389c-6434-575d-ad8f-dccb9d09cd11'), 'sentimentScore': 0.17260977532714605, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'RDNMNE8MES71DNAAQCF6G196OVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:36 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'RDNMNE8MES71DNAAQCF6G196OVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2da4bc93-28bd-5678-82cf-4e4af861d766'), 'title': 'Interpretation of PMI data in February 2024: Spring Festival consumption supports domestic demand', 'author': 'Zhang Deli , You Yong', 'orgName': '中泰证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000157', 'orgSName': '中泰证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ9aKHWRWI96ITp2TFWhX4rQ=', 'researcher': '张德礼,游勇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000250135', '11000442740'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ9aKHWRWI96ITp2TFWhX4rQ=', 'site': 'Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中泰证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214906_1.pdf?1709549856000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214906_1.pdf?1709549856000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of PMI data in February 2024: Spring Festival consumption supports domestic demand', 'originalAuthor': '张德礼,游勇', 'originalContent': '要点2024年2月，官方制造业PMI与非制造业PMI分别为49.1%和51.4%，环比分别下降0.1个百分点和提升0.7个百分点。我们认为有以下六点值得关注：第一，考虑到春节因素和供应商配送时间分项的扰动后，2024年2月PMI走势符合季节性。由于春节前的企业停工和员工返乡，而季调无法完全消除春节因素的影响，因此春节所在月份的官方制造业PMI多数回落。简单对比看，2024年2月制造业PMI环比下降0.1个百分点，低于2015-2019年春节所在月的平均降幅（0.3个百分点）。由于南方降雪影响交通等原因，2024年2月官方制造业PMI供应商配送时间异常下降，从50.8%回落到48.8%。在计算制造业综合PMI时，供应商配送时间指数是逆序数，权重为15%。异常天气反而拉动2024年2月制造业PMI环比回升0.3个百分点。剔除掉这一分项后，制造业PMI环比下降0.4个百分点，和2015年-2019年农历所在月制造业PMI剔除掉供应商配送时间后的环比降幅持平。因此，从官方制造业PMI看，中国经济的增长动能还有待进一步修复。第二，相对于需求，生产受春节因素的影响更大，重新降至荣枯线下。2024年2月，制造业PMI生产指数和新订单指数分别为49.8%和49.0%，环比分别下降1.5个百分点和持平上月。生产指数回落幅度较大，可能原因是作为恢复常态后的首个春节，返乡员工增多有关。今年春节假期全社会跨区域流动人员累积量为22.93亿人次，和2023年农历同期相比增长了21.0%。PMI新订单指数环比持平，主要是内需拉动，可能和今年春节消费总量较强有关。相比以往春节月份PMI新订单指数的回落（2015-2019年平均为-0.3%），今年新订单指数表现略超预期。结构上看，2月新出口订单指数大幅回落0.9个百分点，反映内需的（新订单指数-新出口订单指数）回升0.9个百分点，明显超过2015—2019年春节月份的平均环比-0.1%。今年春节返乡和出行的人员较多，对消费品的需求拉动幅度可能超过了季节性。第三，行业层面看装备制造业PMI降幅较大，各类型企业里小型企业PMI受冲击更大。国家统计局数据显示，2024年2月高技术制造业、装备制造业、消费品行业的PMI分别为50.8%、49.5%和50.0%，环比分别下降0.3、0.6和0.1个百分点。高耗能行业PMI为47.9%，环比上升0.3个百分点。2024年2月大、中、小型企业的PMI分别为50.4%、49.1%和46.4%，较上月分别持平、上升0.2个百分点和下降0.8个百分点。国家统计局指出“小型企业受春节假日影响更为明显，生产经营活动放缓”。第四，制造业企业库存再度回落。2024年2月，制造业PMI产成品库存指数环比下降1.5个百分点，PMI采购量指数、进口指数、主要原材料购进价格指数分别环比下降1.2、0.3和0.3个百分点，出厂价格指数回升1.1个百分点。出厂价格指数的回升可能受春节期间供需错位影响。2023年下半年以来，PMI指标显示库存周期紊乱��这和需求偏弱、预期不稳定等因素有关。考虑到终端需求有待提振，春节影响消退后制造业企业补库的动力可能不足。第五，外需环境或有所改善。2024年2月，制造业PMI新出口订单指数环比回落0.9个百分点。考虑到春节因素对1月和2月制造业PMI新出口订单指数的扰动较大，看2024年1-2月新出口订单指数的平均值，较2023年12月的提高了0.3个百分点。从全球PMI，以及越南、韩国的出口表现看，中国出口企业所面临的外部环境或边际改善。第六，非制造业中，服务业商务活动指数明显改善，建筑业商务活动指数继续回落。2024年2月，服务业商务活动指数为53.0%，环比提高0.9个百分点。今年春节假期出行和旅游的人数均创同期新高，带动出行、消费、零售、住宿餐饮、文娱等行业有较高景气度。建筑业商务活动指数为53.5%，环比下降0.4个百分点，不过降幅小于2015年-2019年春节所在月份的均值1.7%。当前地产行业持续低迷，春节因素对房地产施工的边际影响较弱，可能是建筑业PMI环比降幅能小于季节性的原因。总的来说，考虑到春节因素，以及异常天气通过供应商配送时间这一分项对制造业PMI的反向推升，2024年2月中国制造业的景气度环比变化符合季节性规律。服务业PMI明显回暖，主要是春节在支撑。房地产尚未看到拐点，中国经济的增长动能有待提高，政策适度托底经济和恢复信心仍有必要。风险提示：政策变动，经济恢复不及预期。', 'content': 'Key points: In February 2024, the official manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI were 49.1% and 51.4% respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1 percentage points and an increase of 0.7 percentage points respectively. We believe that the following six points are worthy of attention: First, after taking into account the Spring Festival factors and the disturbance of supplier delivery time items, the PMI trend in February 2024 is in line with seasonality. As companies shut down before the Spring Festival and employees returned home, and the seasonal adjustment cannot completely eliminate the impact of the Spring Festival, the official manufacturing PMI in the month of the Spring Festival mostly fell. From a simple comparison, the manufacturing PMI in February 2024 dropped by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, which was lower than the average decrease (0.3 percentage points) in the month of the Spring Festival from 2015 to 2019. Due to snowfall in the south affecting traffic and other reasons, the delivery time of official manufacturing PMI suppliers dropped abnormally in February 2024, falling from 50.8% to 48.8%. When calculating the manufacturing comprehensive PMI, the supplier delivery time index is a reverse number with a weight of 15%. The abnormal weather instead drove the manufacturing PMI to rebound by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month in February 2024. After excluding this sub-item, the manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, which was the same as the month-on-month decrease of the manufacturing PMI in the lunar month from 2015 to 2019 after excluding supplier delivery time. Therefore, judging from the official manufacturing PMI, the growth momentum of the Chinese economy still needs to be further restored. Second, compared with demand, production was more affected by the Spring Festival factors and fell back to the boom-bust line. In February 2024, the manufacturing PMI production index and new orders index were 49.8% and 49.0% respectively, down 1.5 percentage points month-on-month and unchanged from the previous month. The production index fell significantly, which may be due to the increase in employees returning home during the Spring Festival, which is the first time after the return to normalcy. During this year’s Spring Festival holiday, the cumulative number of people traveling across regions across society was 2.293 billion, an increase of 21.0% compared with the same period in the 2023 lunar calendar. The PMI new orders index remained flat month-on-month, mainly driven by domestic demand, which may be related to the strong total consumption during the Spring Festival this year. Compared with previous declines in the PMI new orders index during the Spring Festival months (an average of -0.3% from 2015 to 2019), the performance of this year\\'s new orders index slightly exceeded expectations. From a structural point of view, the new export orders index fell sharply by 0.9 percentage points in February, and the (new orders index - new export orders index), which reflects domestic demand, rose by 0.9 percentage points, significantly exceeding the average month-on-month -0.1% during the Spring Festival months from 2015 to 2019. This year’s Spring Festival sees more people returning home and traveling, and the demand for consumer goods may exceed seasonal demand. Third, at the industry level, the PMI of the equipment manufacturing industry has dropped significantly, and the PMI of small enterprises among various types of enterprises has been more affected. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the PMIs of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were 50.8%, 49.5%, and 50.0% respectively in February 2024, down 0.3, 0.6, and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month. The PMI of high energy-consuming industries was 47.9%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The PMIs of large, medium and small enterprises in February 2024 were 50.4%, 49.1% and 46.4% respectively, which were the same as last month, an increase of 0.2 percentage points and a decrease of 0.8 percentage points respectively. The National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that \"small enterprises are more obviously affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and production and business activities slow down.\" Fourth, inventories of manufacturing companies have fallen again. In February 2024, the manufacturing PMI finished product inventory index fell by 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, the PMI purchase volume index, import index, and main raw material purchase price index fell by 1.2, 0.3, and 0.3 percentage points respectively month-on-month, and the ex-factory price index rebounded by 1.1 percentage points. . The rebound in the ex-factory price index may be affected by the mismatch between supply and demand during the Spring Festival. Since the second half of 2023, PMI indicators have shown that the inventory cycle is disordered, which is related to factors such as weak demand and unstable expectations. Considering that terminal demand needs to be boosted, manufacturing companies may not have enough motivation to replenish their inventories after the impact of the Spring Festival subsides. Fifth, the external demand environment may improve. In February 2024, the manufacturing PMI new export orders index fell by 0.9 percentage points month-on-month. Considering that the Spring Festival factors had a greater disturbance on the new export order index of the manufacturing PMI in January and February, the average of the new export order index from January to February 2024 was 0.3 percentage points higher than that in December 2023. Judging from the global PMI and the export performance of Vietnam and South Korea, the external environment or marginal improvement faced by Chinese export companies can be seen. Sixth, among non-manufacturing industries, the service industry business activity index improved significantly, and the construction industry business activity index continued to fall. In February 2024, the service industry business activity index was 53.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points month-on-month. The number of people traveling and traveling during the Spring Festival holiday this year hit a new high for the same period, driving high prosperity in travel, consumption, retail, accommodation, catering, entertainment and other industries. The business activity index of the construction industry was 53.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but the decrease was smaller than the average 1.7% in the Spring Festival months from 2015 to 2019. The current real estate industry continues to be sluggish, and the Spring Festival factor has a weak marginal impact on real estate construction. This may be the reason why the month-on-month decline in the construction industry PMI is smaller than seasonal. In general, taking into account the Spring Festival factors and the reverse push-up of manufacturing PMI by abnormal weather through the supplier delivery time sub-item, the month-on-month changes in the prosperity of China\\'s manufacturing industry in February 2024 are in line with seasonal patterns. The service industry PMI has picked up significantly, mainly supported by the Spring Festival. The real estate industry has not yet seen an inflection point. The growth momentum of the Chinese economy needs to be improved. It is still necessary for appropriate policies to support the economy and restore confidence. Risk warning: Policy changes may result in economic recovery falling short of expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('c22a903d-76ba-53c8-9da4-b58bcda8a2d0'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6999967098236084, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'UKNSMQRLFI0VKPQQ54MVSGO1BJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:40 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'UKNSMQRLFI0VKPQQ54MVSGO1BJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('bd697777-fc44-5f5a-a356-3fa734bebe66'), 'title': 'Comments on PMI data in February 2024: differentiated data, looking forward to policy strengthening', 'author': 'Ye Fan, Wang Runmeng, Liu Yanhong', 'orgName': '西南证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000296', 'orgSName': '西南证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ/aTT83knHH8g+tR5HdEZAA=', 'researcher': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000263735', '11000418732', '11000440469'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ/aTT83knHH8g+tR5HdEZAA=', 'site': 'Southwest Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '西南证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214900_1.pdf?1709545581000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214900_1.pdf?1709545581000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on PMI data in February 2024: differentiated data, looking forward to policy strengthening', 'originalAuthor': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'originalContent': '制造业PMI：景气度季节性走弱，需求相对平稳。2024年2月制造业采购经理人指数较1月回落0.1个百分点至49.1%，主要受到季节性因素的影响。从需求端看，2月新订单指数为49.0%，较前月持平，但连续5个月收缩，需求端仍然偏弱；从生产端看，春节企业员工返乡增多，2月生产指数较上月回落1.5个百分点至49.8%，在连续8个月扩张后回到荣枯线下；企业预期有所回升，但招工小幅放缓；进出口情况来看，新出口订单指数和进口指数均回落，海外高利率持续作用于经济，外需可能震荡偏弱，我国出口可能仍受到一定影响，而扩内需政策下进口或有所支撑；行业上，高技术制造业、装备制造业和消费品制造业PMI均较上月有所下滑，基础原材料行业景气度回升。不同规模企业景气度分化，小型企业预期改善。分企业规模看，2月，中型企业景气度回升，小型企业景气度走低，大型企业持平。大中小型企业景气度表现分化明显，生产端均季节性走弱，但从需求端的边际变化来看，大型企业外需好于内需，中型和小型企业内需好于外需。从业人员和企业预期方面，小型企业预期指数明显回升，大、中型企业预期下降，大、中型企业的从业人员指数回升，而小型企业从业人员指数回落。出厂价格指数回升，两个库存指数均走低。2024年2月，假期因素导致采购量指数较上月回落1.2个百分点至48.0%。国际大宗商品价格略有上行，主要原材料购进价格指数虽然连续两个月走低，但仍处于扩张态势，而市场需求有所改善，出厂价格指数升高1.1个百分点至48.1%。大型企业主要原材料购进价格指数重新收缩，不同规模企业的出厂价格指数均有所回升。预计国际油价震荡偏强，部分工业品价格有望受到国内扩内需政策的支撑。2月，受到部分地区冻雨的天气影响，供应商配送时间指数下降，企业原材料、产成品库存指数下降，上半年国内可能仍将呈现库存低位震荡的状态。非制造业PMI：服务业、建筑业景气度走势分化。2024年2月，非制造业商务活动指数为51.4%，比上月回升0.7个百分点，连续3个月回升。分项指标来看，新订单指数为46.8%，下滑0.8个百分点，仍在荣枯线以下，而新出口订单指数回升2.1个点至47.3%。服务业商务活动指数为51.0%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，连续两个月走高。行业上有所分化，与节日出行和消费密切相关的行业生产经营较为活跃，房地产、居民服务等行业商务活动指数继续低于临界点。2月，受春节假期及低温雨雪天气等因素影响，建筑业商务活动指数为53.5%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，连续两个月下降。春节之后，石油沥青开工率有所回升，然而回升的速率偏慢。2月以来，房企融资继续得到政策支持，五年期LPR下调也有助于提振房地产销售信心，尽管地方债务约束依然较大，但节后将逐渐进入到“金三银四”旺季，且稳增长压力下期待后续中央财政发力加持，预计建筑业景气度有望逐渐恢复。风险提示：海外需求超预期下降，政策落地不及预期。', 'content': 'Manufacturing PMI: The prosperity is seasonally weak and demand is relatively stable. The manufacturing purchasing managers index in February 2024 fell 0.1 percentage points from January to 49.1%, mainly affected by seasonal factors. From the demand side, the new order index in February was 49.0%, which was the same as the previous month. However, it has shrunk for five consecutive months, and the demand side is still weak; from the production side, more employees returned home during the Spring Festival, and the production index in February was higher than that of the previous month. It dropped 1.5 percentage points to 49.8%, returning to the boom-bust line after eight consecutive months of expansion; business expectations have rebounded, but recruitment has slowed slightly; in terms of import and export conditions, both the new export order index and the import index have fallen. High overseas interest rates continue to affect the economy, external demand may fluctuate weakly, and my country\\'s exports may still be affected to a certain extent, while imports may be supported under the policy of expanding domestic demand; in terms of industry, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing are all There was a decline from the previous month, and the basic raw materials industry\\'s prosperity rebounded. The prosperity of enterprises of different sizes is divided, and small enterprises are expected to improve. In terms of enterprise size, in February, the prosperity of medium-sized enterprises rebounded, that of small enterprises declined, and that of large enterprises remained unchanged. The prosperity performance of large, medium and small enterprises is obviously divided, with the production side all weakening seasonally. However, judging from the marginal changes on the demand side, the external demand of large enterprises is better than domestic demand, and the domestic demand of medium and small enterprises is better than external demand. In terms of employees and enterprise expectations, the expectation index of small enterprises has rebounded significantly, while the expectations of large and medium-sized enterprises have declined. The employee index of large and medium-sized enterprises has rebounded, while the employee index of small enterprises has fallen. The factory-factory price index rebounded and both inventory indexes fell. In February 2024, holiday factors caused the purchase volume index to fall 1.2 percentage points from the previous month to 48.0%. International commodity prices rose slightly. Although the purchase price index of major raw materials fell for two consecutive months, it was still in an expansionary trend. Market demand improved, and the ex-factory price index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 48.1%. The purchase price index of main raw materials of large enterprises shrank again, and the ex-factory price index of enterprises of different sizes rebounded. International oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and the prices of some industrial products are expected to be supported by domestic policies to expand domestic demand. In February, affected by freezing rain in some areas, supplier delivery time index dropped, and corporate raw material and finished product inventory index dropped. In the first half of the year, domestic inventory may still be low and volatile. Non-manufacturing PMI: The prosperity trends of the service industry and construction industry are divergent. In February 2024, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month and rising for three consecutive months. In terms of sub-indicators, the new orders index was 46.8%, down 0.8 percentage points and still below the boom-bust line, while the new export orders index rose 2.1 points to 47.3%. The service industry business activity index was 51.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month and rising for two consecutive months. There is some differentiation in the industry. The production and operation of industries closely related to holiday travel and consumption are relatively active, and the business activity index of real estate, resident services and other industries continues to be below the critical point. In February, affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday and low temperature, rain and snow weather, the business activity index of the construction industry was 53.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and a decline for two consecutive months. After the Spring Festival, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt has rebounded, but the rate of recovery has been slow. Since February, the financing of real estate companies has continued to receive policy support, and the reduction of the five-year LPR has also helped boost real estate sales confidence. Although local debt constraints are still large, the \"Gold, Three, and Silver\" peak seasons will gradually enter after the holiday, and Under the pressure of stabilizing growth, we look forward to subsequent central fiscal support, and it is expected that the prosperity of the construction industry is expected to gradually recover. Risk warning: Overseas demand fell more than expected, and policy implementation fell short of expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('d3389991-b216-5572-82e3-6396ad6aed04'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9623881671577692, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'ELTRDTUPRPJD8KM4G2ALE7HL17VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:43 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'ELTRDTUPRPJD8KM4G2ALE7HL17VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6d98e403-9d23-5b08-a869-ff6093024ed6'), 'title': 'Comprehensive review and outlook for the week: Long-term interest rates hit new lows, and the logic of the denominator continues to be interpreted', 'author': 'Yan Xiang, Xu Ruchun', 'orgName': '华福证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000065', 'orgSName': '华福证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ5HRujtzyBZBzxSaiTp1pCU=', 'researcher': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000223033', '11000339132'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ5HRujtzyBZBzxSaiTp1pCU=', 'site': 'Huafu Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华福证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214893_1.pdf?1709563558000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214893_1.pdf?1709563558000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comprehensive review and outlook for the week: Long-term interest rates hit new lows, and the logic of the denominator continues to be interpreted', 'originalAuthor': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'originalContent': '核心观点：本周有三方面值得重点关注。一是政治局会议聚焦经济议题，后续两会具体部署值得期待。2月29日中共中央政治局召开会议，讨论政府工作报告。从会议通稿看，本次会议重点讨论经济工作，总体基调与2023年底的中央经济工作会议一致，但新增亮点值得关注：（1）首提“稳定透明可预期的政策环境”，有助于稳定社会预期。此前中央经济工作会议就明确提出国内经济面临的困难之一在于“社会预期偏弱”，而稳定的政策环境，有助于提振市场信心、稳定居民和企业预期，后续值得关注；（2）对新质生产力的建设更加重视。中央经济工作会议提出的首项任务就是建设现代化产业体系，发展新质生产力，而本次会议继续提出“大力推进现代化产业体系建设、加快发展新质生产力”，新质生产力有望成为未来产业发展政策的主线之一，对科技创新的支持力度只会只增不减。政治局会议总体体现出稳增长的诉求较大，尤其是在产业政策层面，具体关注后续两会相关具体表述。华福证券二是2月PMI数据呈现弱复苏格局，制造业边际承压而服务业景气回升，内需修复仍有赖稳增长政策发力。3月1日，中采公布2月PMI数据，2月制造业PMI值49.1、环比下降0.1pct，非制造业PMI51.4、环比提升0.7pct。制造业PMI环比回落，一方面受春节因素影响，另一方面反映需求相对偏弱，中小企业承压尤为明显。而服务业PMI景气度较高，受益于春节假期带动，前期各项春节出行和消费数据已予以佐证。后续重点关注3月需求修复情况，但从2月PMI、通胀等各项数据看，目前国内需求复苏仍相对偏慢，一方面仍有赖于前期特别国债及新发专向债逐步形成工作量，另一方面也有赖稳增长政策继续发力，货币和财政政策尤其值得关注。三是节后长端利率大幅下行，分母逻辑持续演绎。节后长端利率继续下行，10年期国债降至2.4%以下、30年国债期限利差降至历史低位，而上证指数累计上涨5.6%。当下的股债双牛行情主要受流动性驱动，尤其是2月18日LPR超预期降息25BP，更是予以确认。根据我们在报告《分母的逻辑》中指出的，当经济处于盈利周期底部，市场对分子端较为钝化，分母的逻辑更容易兑现。当前位置，从期限利差、信用利差、ERP等各个维度看，债券已处于历史极值水平，短期需警惕交易风险。而稳增长诉求对应货币政策或仍有发力空间，对股市持续构成分母端利好。风险提示：稳增长政策不及预期、流动性边际收紧、海外市场大幅波动等。', 'content': 'Core point: There are three aspects worthy of focus this week. First, the Politburo meeting focused on economic issues, and the specific arrangements for the subsequent two sessions are worth looking forward to. On February 29, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the government work report. Judging from the meeting draft, this meeting focuses on economic work, and the overall tone is consistent with the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2023, but the new highlights are worthy of attention: (1) The first mention of \"stable, transparent and predictable policy environment\" will help To stabilize social expectations. Previously, the Central Economic Work Conference clearly stated that one of the difficulties facing the domestic economy is \"weak social expectations\", and a stable policy environment will help boost market confidence and stabilize the expectations of residents and businesses, and it deserves attention in the future; (2) Pay more attention to the construction of new quality productive forces. The first task proposed by the Central Economic Work Conference is to build a modern industrial system and develop new productive forces. This conference continues to propose \"vigorously promoting the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerating the development of new productive forces.\" New productive forces are expected to become future industrial development policies One of the main themes is that support for technological innovation will only increase rather than decrease. The Politburo meeting generally reflected a greater demand for stable growth, especially at the industrial policy level, and paid specific attention to the specific statements related to the subsequent two sessions. Huafu Securities Second, the February PMI data showed a weak recovery pattern. The manufacturing industry was under pressure while the service industry was recovering. The recovery of domestic demand still depends on the stabilization of growth policies. On March 1, China National Mining Industry Corporation announced February PMI data. The manufacturing PMI value in February was 49.1, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1 pct, and the non-manufacturing PMI value was 51.4, a month-on-month increase of 0.7 pct. The manufacturing PMI fell on a month-on-month basis. On the one hand, it was affected by the Spring Festival factors. On the other hand, it reflected that demand was relatively weak, and small and medium-sized enterprises were particularly under pressure. The PMI of the service industry is relatively prosperous, benefiting from the Spring Festival holiday, which has been supported by various early Spring Festival travel and consumption data. The follow-up focus will be on demand recovery in March, but judging from February PMI, inflation and other data, the recovery of domestic demand is still relatively slow. On the one hand, it still relies on the gradual formation of workload for special treasury bonds and newly issued special bonds. On the other hand, it also depends on the continued efforts of policies to stabilize growth, and monetary and fiscal policies are particularly worthy of attention. Third, long-term interest rates fell sharply after the holiday, and the denominator logic continued to be interpreted. Long-term interest rates continued to fall after the holiday, with the 10-year Treasury bond falling below 2.4% and the term spread of the 30-year Treasury bond falling to a historical low, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.6%. The current bullish market of stocks and bonds is mainly driven by liquidity, especially confirmed by LPR\\'s unexpected 25BP interest rate cut on February 18. According to what we pointed out in the report \"The Logic of the Denominator\", when the economy is at the bottom of the profit cycle, the market is relatively blunt on the numerator, and the logic of the denominator is easier to realize. At the current position, from the perspective of term spread, credit spread, ERP and other dimensions, bonds are already at historical extreme levels, and we need to be vigilant about transaction risks in the short term. There may still be room for monetary policy to meet the demand for stable growth, which will continue to be positive for the denominator of the stock market. Risk warning: policies to stabilize growth are less than expected, liquidity margins are tightened, overseas markets fluctuate significantly, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('91584e59-c8cd-5c63-a616-39b00d7419c0'), 'sentimentScore': 0.011858420446515083, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'S6L1NSUKCLBGQP4BMIO9APG3A3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:46 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'S6L1NSUKCLBGQP4BMIO9APG3A3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('77be1d85-b629-5b02-aa2d-7acf983b0794'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Credit Observation (2023 Annual Report): The economy has withstood internal and external pressures and the long-term positive trend remains unchanged', 'author': 'Zhang Zhen', 'orgName': '联合资信评估股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80002172', 'orgSName': '联合资信', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ50i07oLWgKGefPpP7wl0k4=', 'researcher': '张振', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000459733'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ50i07oLWgKGefPpP7wl0k4=', 'site': 'United Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '联合资信', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214894_1.pdf?1709565281000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214894_1.pdf?1709565281000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Credit Observation (2023 Annual Report): The economy has withstood internal and external pressures and the long-term positive trend remains unchanged', 'originalAuthor': '张振', 'originalContent': '2023年，世界经济低迷，地缘政治冲突复杂多变，国内改革发展稳定���务依然繁重，各地区各部门稳中求进，着力扩大内需、优化结构、提振信心、防范化解风险，中国经济回升向好，主要预期目标圆满实现。初步核算，全年GDP按不变价格计算，比上年增长5.2%。一季度同比增长4.5%，二季度同比增长6.3%，三季度同比增长4.9%，四季度同比增长5.2%。展望2024年，有利条件强于不利因素，中国经济长期向好的基本面未变，绿色经济、数字经济蓬勃发展，积极财政支撑经济跨周期发展。信用环境方面，2023年社融规模与名义经济增长基本匹配，信贷结构不断优化，但是居民融资需求总体仍偏弱，且企业债券融资有所收缩。银行间市场流动性整体偏紧，实体经济融资成本逐步下降。展望2024年，社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配，市场货币供应量仍将保持充足，宽松信用环境关键仍在于为房地产的供需双方提供流动性支持。政策环境方面，2023年，宏观政策落实中央经济工作会议以及4月、7月中央政治局会议精神，聚焦于调整优化房地产政策、活跃资本市场、促进民营经济发展壮大、加大吸引外商投资力度等方面；四季度，宏观政策加强逆周期调控力度，发行特别国债和特殊再融资债券，以积极财政支持经济跨周期发展。展望2024年，宏观政策将聚焦于高质量发展，加大逆周期调控力度，适时适度推出调控政策工具，落实中央经济工作会议精神，突出资本市场建设在经济建设中的重要性。', 'content': \"In 2023, the world economy is sluggish, geopolitical conflicts are complex and volatile, and domestic reform, development and stability tasks remain arduous. All regions and departments strive to make progress while maintaining stability, and focus on expanding domestic demand, optimizing structure, boosting confidence, and preventing and defusing risks. China's economic recovery is heading towards Well, the main expected goals were successfully achieved. Preliminary calculations show that the full-year GDP, calculated at constant prices, increased by 5.2% over the previous year. The year-on-year growth rate was 4.5% in the first quarter, 6.3% in the second quarter, 4.9% in the third quarter, and 5.2% in the fourth quarter. Looking forward to 2024, the favorable conditions outweigh the unfavorable factors. The long-term fundamentals of China's economy remain unchanged. The green economy and digital economy are booming, and active fiscal support is provided for the cross-cyclical development of the economy. In terms of the credit environment, the scale of social financing will basically match nominal economic growth in 2023, and the credit structure will continue to be optimized. However, residents' financing demand is still generally weak, and corporate bond financing has shrunk. The overall liquidity in the inter-bank market is tight, and the financing costs of the real economy are gradually declining. Looking forward to 2024, the scale of social financing and money supply will match the expected goals of economic growth and price levels, the market money supply will remain sufficient, and the key to a loose credit environment will still be to provide liquidity support for both the supply and demand sides of real estate. In terms of policy environment, in 2023, macro policies will implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau meetings of the Central Committee in April and July, focusing on adjusting and optimizing real estate policies, activating the capital market, promoting the development and growth of the private economy, and increasing efforts to attract foreign investment. In terms of aspects; in the fourth quarter, macroeconomic policies strengthened countercyclical regulation and issued special government bonds and special refinancing bonds to actively support the cross-cyclical development of the economy through fiscal support. Looking forward to 2024, macro policies will focus on high-quality development, increase countercyclical regulation, launch regulatory policy tools in a timely and appropriate manner, implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, and highlight the importance of capital market construction in economic construction.\", 'authorid': UUID('6f33b920-59a6-59e2-ab54-958f79e424d5'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8070513308048248, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3HBNAMC11PSE6UQM3RVB8254UBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3HBNAMC11PSE6UQM3RVB8254UBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('958cd1cf-9239-5da2-9d38-c98d6e13cd55'), 'title': 'Also comment on February PMI data: supply and demand structure improves, focus on long-term rebalancing', 'author': 'He Ning, Chen Ce', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ2LN24ByIh4a0hWGHFJaC3I=', 'researcher': '何宁,陈策', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332', '11000443244'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ2LN24ByIh4a0hWGHFJaC3I=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214892_1.pdf?1709543646000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214892_1.pdf?1709543646000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Also comment on February PMI data: supply and demand structure improves, focus on long-term rebalancing', 'originalAuthor': '何宁,陈策', 'originalContent': '2024年2月官方制造业PMI49.1%，预期49.2%，前值49.2%；官方非制造业PMI51.4%，预期50.7%，前值50.7%。2月PMI印象：制造业供需结构改善，建筑业延续承压，服务业边际改善(1)制造业PMI环比好于季节性，供需均下行但供需结构短期改善。2月制造业PMI为49.1%，低于过去五年春节均值的50.0%，好的方面在于环比较1月仅下行0.1个百分点，好于过去五年春节的-0.3%。春节效应下供给的收缩幅度大于需求，带来短期的供需格局和价格水平改善。(2)建筑业PMI连续2个月下行。2024年百年建筑调研工地样本量为10094个、低于2023年的12220个，并指出“新项目总量减少且开工进度慢于去年（2023年），部分地区特定的续建项目暂缓施工”。往后看，万亿国债陆续形成实物工作量，叠加房地产加快白名单融资审批、城改专项借款投放，建筑业景气度或将企稳。(3)服务业PMI边际改善。春节消费数据的一致性在于“量”超预期、“价”相对平稳，但总消费水平的修复路径仍维持韧性。分行业来看，2月航空运输、货币金融服务、文化体育娱乐等行业景气度较高；房地产、居民服务等行业商务活动指数继续低于临界点。提示复工复产进度或放缓从2个指标来看，供给的回落或不止季节性，复工复产的斜率发生了一定变化。(1)百度地图迁徙指数明显回落：春节当周、节后1周、节后2周，2024年复工进度分别为48.2%、76.5%、96.2%，分别较2023年同期+3.0%、-1.4%、-2.2%。劳务输出大市的迁出指数和劳务输入大市的迁入指数同样降低。(2)百年建筑开复工率：截至2月27日（农历正月十八），百年建筑调研全国10094个工地开复工率39.9%，农历同比增加1.5个百分点；劳务上工率38.1%，农历同比下降5.2个百分点。供需再平衡视角：“两条腿走路”的进一步确认2023年我们多次强调“两条腿走路”，即单纯发展先进制造业可能造成产能过剩，宽财政的投向除基建+三大工程的老动能以外，或可考虑居民部门，包括财政支出提高工资、中央消费券和消费补贴、中央财政补贴居民（欧美日）、收入分配制度改革等。2月23日习近平总书记主持召开中央财经委员会第四次会议，强调“推动新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新”，并指出“要坚持中央财政和地方政府联动”，指向政策思路更加重视供需协同，往后看需关注二十届三中全会，或进一步深化统一大市场、财税制度改革、收入分配制度改革等。风险提示：政策变化超预期；美国经济超预期衰退。', 'content': 'In February 2024, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, which was expected to be 49.2%, and the previous value was 49.2%; the official non-manufacturing PMI was 51.4%, which was expected to be 50.7%, and the previous value was 50.7%. February PMI impression: The supply and demand structure of the manufacturing industry has improved, the construction industry continues to be under pressure, and the service industry has improved at the margin. (1) The manufacturing PMI is better than the seasonality month-on-month. Both supply and demand are declining, but the supply and demand structure has improved in the short term. The manufacturing PMI in February was 49.1%, which was lower than the 50.0% average of the Spring Festival in the past five years. The good thing is that it was only down 0.1 percentage points compared with January, which was better than the -0.3% during the Spring Festival in the past five years. Under the Spring Festival effect, the contraction of supply is greater than that of demand, resulting in short-term improvements in the supply and demand pattern and price levels. (2) The PMI of the construction industry has declined for 2 consecutive months. The sample number of construction sites in the Centennial Construction Survey in 2024 is 10,094, which is lower than the 12,220 sites in 2023. It is pointed out that \"the total number of new projects has decreased and the start of construction progress is slower than last year (2023), and the construction of specific continuation projects in some areas has been suspended.\" Looking forward, trillions of treasury bonds will gradually form a physical workload, superimposed on real estate to speed up whitelist financing approvals and special loans for urban reform, and the construction industry\\'s prosperity may stabilize. (3) Marginal improvement in service industry PMI. The consistency of the Spring Festival consumption data lies in the fact that \"volume\" exceeds expectations and \"price\" is relatively stable, but the recovery path of the overall consumption level remains resilient. In terms of industries, air transportation, monetary and financial services, culture, sports and entertainment and other industries were relatively prosperous in February; the business activity index of real estate, resident services and other industries continued to be below the critical point. It is suggested that the progress of resumption of work and production may slow down. Judging from the two indicators, the drop in supply may be more than seasonal, and the slope of resumption of work and production has changed to a certain extent. (1) Baidu Map Migration Index dropped significantly: in the week of the Spring Festival, 1 week after the holiday, and 2 weeks after the holiday, the resumption progress in 2024 was 48.2%, 76.5%, and 96.2% respectively, which were +3.0% and -1.4 respectively compared with the same period in 2023. %, -2.2%. The out-migration index of major labor-exporting cities and the in-migration index of major labor-importing cities also decreased. (2) Centenary Construction\\'s resumption rate: As of February 27 (the eighteenth day of the first lunar month), Centenary Construction\\'s survey of 10,094 construction sites across the country had a resumption rate of 39.9%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year in the lunar calendar; the labor employment rate was 38.1%, a year-on-year increase in the lunar calendar dropped by 5.2 percentage points. Perspective of rebalancing supply and demand: further confirmation of \"walking on two legs\". In 2023, we have emphasized \"walking on two legs\" many times, that is, simply developing advanced manufacturing may cause overcapacity. In addition to momentum, the household sector may be considered, including fiscal expenditures to increase wages, central consumer vouchers and consumption subsidies, central financial subsidies to residents (Europe, the United States and Japan), income distribution system reform, etc. On February 23, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, emphasizing “promoting a new round of large-scale equipment updates and replacing old consumer goods with new ones” and pointed out that “the linkage between central finance and local governments must be adhered to”, pointing to greater emphasis on policy thinking. In terms of supply and demand coordination, we need to pay attention to the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in the future, or further deepen the unified market, fiscal and taxation system reform, income distribution system reform, etc. Risk warning: policy changes exceed expectations; the U.S. economy declines more than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('f7fc630b-ca95-5dfd-b515-67d2d47ac3bb'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9060971979051828, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'PS1QGHR73O7GPOTOH8UP90QQBJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'PS1QGHR73O7GPOTOH8UP90QQBJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e50d007b-f9b3-5fc9-a01e-21dae1be5ce5'), 'title': 'Comments on February PMI data: The Spring Festival holiday affects PMI performance, pay attention to the introduction of subsequent policies', 'author': 'Yu Tianxu', 'orgName': '万联证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000187', 'orgSName': '万联证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZxmBafy2Pn6tlaRIyCIHDsE=', 'researcher': '于天旭', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000348537'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZxmBafy2Pn6tlaRIyCIHDsE=', 'site': 'Wanlian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '万联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214887_1.pdf?1709543357000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214887_1.pdf?1709543357000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February PMI data: The Spring Festival holiday affects PMI performance, pay attention to the introduction of subsequent policies', 'originalAuthor': '于天旭', 'originalContent': '事件：2月���采制造业PMI为49.1%，较上月回落0.1个百分点，非制造业PMI51.4%，较上月上行0.7个百分点。制造业PMI环比季节性回落，PMI降幅低于往年春节在2月的年份。2月制造业PMI依然处于荣枯线下方。春节在2月，企业开工受到影响，企业开工受到影响，对比往年春节在2月的月份，制造业PMI环比多有所回落。生产进入传统淡季，内外需表现尚未修复。生产指数下探至荣枯线下方，春节为传统生产淡季，上游化纤制品、黑色金属加工行业处于临界点下方，下游医药、食品制造、电气机械等行业生产景气度依然较高。需求端来看，新订单指数与上月持平，出口订单、进口指数均有所下滑。原材料、出厂价格走势分化，企业去库进程仍处磨底阶段。原材料购进价格回落，出厂价格上行，下游加工制造业利润边际修复。企业产成品、原材料库存保持去化，春节原材料采购和交货时间减慢。生产经营活动预期小幅好转，小型企业为主要拉动。小型企业出口订单大幅下滑，中型企业新订单反弹上行。小型企业原材料购进价格上行，成本端持续承压。小型企业新出口订单指数显著下滑，中型企业也有所回落，仅大型企业上涨。仅中型企业的新订单指数上行，进口指数保持增长。政策上对于中小企业的扶持延续，美联储降息预期后置，短期外需仍阶段性承压。春节带动服务业PMI上行，建筑业PMI受假期和雨雪天气影响边际回落。返乡、旅游人数增加，出行和服务相关的行业景气度抬升。房地产投资表现依然偏弱，开年以来地方债发行偏缓，地方化债背景下，地方重大项目建设可能会受到一定影响，未来需要关注中央财政的支持力度。政策将持续助力稳经济，节后生产有望季节性修复。总体而言，2月数据受到春节因素干扰较大，3月PMI预期环比回升，生产将出现好转。两会召开将出台更多提振经济的政策，中央财经委会议提出的“推动新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新”，有望给制造业需求带来支撑。当前中美仍处于去库存的磨底阶段，补库进程仍有一定扰动，美联储未来开启降息后，有望带动需求转好，提振海外的补库进程。短期地产产业链的拖累仍将持续，后续“三大工程”有望形成一定拉动。节后消费景气度的可持续仍需观察。风险因素：海外政策变动节奏和幅度超预期，居民消费、购房持续疲弱，政策出台和落地不及预期。', 'content': 'Event: In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 51.4%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing PMI fell seasonally on a month-on-month basis, and the PMI decline was lower than in previous years when the Spring Festival fell in February. The manufacturing PMI in February was still below the boom-bust line. The Spring Festival falls in February, which affects the start of business operations. Compared with previous years when the Spring Festival falls in February, the manufacturing PMI has fallen slightly month-on-month. Production has entered the traditional off-season, and internal and external demand performance has not yet recovered. The production index dropped below the boom-bust line. The Spring Festival is the traditional off-season for production. The upstream chemical fiber products and ferrous metal processing industries are below the critical point. The production prosperity of downstream industries such as medicine, food manufacturing, and electrical machinery is still high. On the demand side, the new orders index remained unchanged from the previous month, while export orders and import indices both declined. The price trends of raw materials and ex-factory prices have diverged, and the destocking process of enterprises is still at the bottoming stage. The purchasing prices of raw materials have fallen, ex-factory prices have risen, and the profit margins of downstream processing and manufacturing industries have recovered. Enterprises\\' finished goods and raw material inventories remain depleted, and raw material procurement and delivery times slow down during the Spring Festival. Production and business activities are expected to improve slightly, with small enterprises as the main driver. Export orders from small companies fell sharply, while new orders from medium-sized companies rebounded. The purchase price of raw materials for small enterprises has increased, and the cost side continues to be under pressure. The index of new export orders for small enterprises fell significantly, and for medium-sized enterprises it also fell. Only large enterprises increased. Only the new orders index of medium-sized enterprises increased, and the import index maintained growth. Policy support for small and medium-sized enterprises continues, the Fed\\'s interest rate cut expectations are postponed, and short-term external demand is still under periodic pressure. The Spring Festival drove the service industry PMI upward, while the construction industry PMI fell marginally due to the holidays and rain and snow weather. The number of people returning home and traveling has increased, and the prosperity of travel and service-related industries has increased. The performance of real estate investment is still weak, and local debt issuance has been slow since the beginning of the year. In the context of localized debt, the construction of major local projects may be affected to a certain extent. In the future, we need to pay attention to the support of the central government. Policies will continue to help stabilize the economy, and production is expected to recover seasonally after the holidays. Generally speaking, the February data was greatly affected by the Spring Festival. The PMI in March is expected to rebound month-on-month, and production will improve. The two sessions will introduce more policies to boost the economy. The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting’s proposal to “promote a new round of large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones” is expected to support manufacturing demand. Currently, China and the United States are still in the bottoming out stage of destocking, and there are still certain disturbances in the replenishment process. After the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates in the future, it is expected to drive demand to improve and boost the overseas replenishment process. The short-term drag on the real estate industry chain will continue, and the follow-up \"three major projects\" are expected to provide some boost. The sustainability of the post-holiday consumption boom still needs to be observed. Risk factors: The pace and magnitude of overseas policy changes exceed expectations, household consumption and home purchases continue to be weak, and policy introduction and implementation fall short of expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('f09132a4-2048-5601-aef1-20be35dfd0c9'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9593947231769562, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KIFO8KKFHJA123VED6PG1D3AC3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:53 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KIFO8KKFHJA123VED6PG1D3AC3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('4a25b292-2e4f-53df-b44c-ea43609efcb1'), 'title': 'Macro Dynamic Tracking Report: Five Judgments for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Fan Chengkai', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ357BhmeUa7a3xdfSlCo6zA=', 'researcher': '钟正生,范城恺', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000369143'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ357BhmeUa7a3xdfSlCo6zA=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214885_1.pdf?1709552192000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214885_1.pdf?1709552192000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Dynamic Tracking Report: Five Judgments for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,范城恺', 'originalContent': '平安观点：2024年美国大选已拉开帷幕，拜登和特朗普很可能步入最终角逐，市场对选情的交易亦可能提前。我们关于本次大选及其影响有五个判断：一、选情：“重竞”，特朗普势头更佳，但变数犹存。当前特朗普全国及摇摆州民调均领先。RCP统计的全国民调中，特朗普领先2个百分点。不过，目前判断特朗普胜出可能为时尚早。在过去七次大选中，前21天的民调结果与实际结果平均偏差达4.3个百分点；人工智能（AI）造假问题可能干扰选情；选民对“拜登经济学”（尤其通胀）的看法或有改善空间。二、财政：无论增支或减税，财政都不紧缩。拜登连任或推翻大部分减税政策，但增税举措不在于追求财政紧缩，更可能是为了保证政府支出的能力，继而政府支出可能继续增长。但无论谁当选，都将面对一个愈发不可持续的财政前景。美国在新冠冲击后财政大幅扩张，提前10年达到了2030-2033年赤字水平。尤其是，特朗普当选并延续减税，将令美国财政更不可持续。三、贸易：关税风险重燃。拜登连任或难推翻关税政策，可能继续巩固“印太经济框架”网络，“逆全球化”趋势难改。特朗普当选或重启对华关税，也可能新设“无差别关税”。���方面，美国贸易逆差在新冠疫情后快速扩大。另一方面，美国对华贸易限制效果并不明显，虽然中国对美出口份额出现下滑，但全球市占率保持相对稳定。这将增大启动“无差别关税”的风险。四、产业：“再工业化”思路有别，人工智能同受重视。特朗普若当选，可能打击拜登执政期间的“再工业化”成效。拜登与特朗普都希望重振制造业，但实施思路不同。比较二人执政的前三年，美国制造业就业人数在拜登和特朗普时期分别累计上涨6.3%和3.5%，非住宅建造支出则分别上涨38%和18%，可见拜登政府的制造业政策更有成效。拜登政府的投资计划长达5-10年，如果特朗普当选，美国政府投资与产业政策的连贯性势必受威胁。双方都将重视AI发展，但监管思路尚不明朗。五、市场：有望相对“淡定”。从目前到大选结束，预计金融市场波动相对有限。第一，“重竞”情形下，公众对两位候选人较为熟悉，政策确定性更强。第二，扩张性财政取向不变，叠加货币渐回中性，美国经济前景维持乐观。第三，围绕关税风险的交易有望相对克制。回顾2018-19年，在中美“休战”后又重启关税背景下，市场反应明显减弱。第四，AI发展环境不变，且经济增长和企业盈利前景维持乐观，大选本身可能不会阻碍美股“科技牛”行情。具体来看，美股涨势或将不受选情过多干扰，关税风险对非美市场冲击幅度有限，美债利率和美元指数有望获得支撑而维持相对高位。风险提示：美国大选候选人超预期变更，候选人政策取向超预期变化，美国经济和政治环境超预期变化等', 'content': 'Ping An’s perspective: The 2024 U.S. election has begun. Biden and Trump are likely to enter the final contest, and the market’s trading on the election may also be advanced. We have five judgments about this election and its impact: 1. Election situation: \"Re-election\", Trump has better momentum, but variables still exist. Trump is currently leading in both national and swing state polls. In national polls compiled by RCP, Trump leads by 2 percentage points. However, it may be too early to judge Trump’s victory. In the past seven general elections, the average deviation between the poll results in the first 21 days and the actual results was 4.3 percentage points; the problem of artificial intelligence (AI) fraud may interfere with the election; voters’ views on “Bidenomics” (especially inflation) There may be room for improvement. 2. Finance: No matter whether it increases spending or cuts taxes, there will be no fiscal tightening. Biden may be re-elected to overturn most of the tax cuts, but the tax increase is not to pursue fiscal austerity, but more likely to ensure the government\\'s ability to spend, and government spending may continue to grow. But whoever is elected will face an increasingly unsustainable fiscal outlook. The United States has experienced significant fiscal expansion after the COVID-19 impact, reaching the 2030-2033 deficit level 10 years ahead of schedule. In particular, Trump\\'s election and continuation of tax cuts will make the US fiscal system even more unsustainable. 3. Trade: Tariff risks are rekindled. It may be difficult for Biden to overturn the tariff policy if he is re-elected. He may continue to consolidate the \"Indo-Pacific Economic Framework\" network, and the \"anti-globalization\" trend will be difficult to change. If Trump is elected, he may restart tariffs on China and may also establish new \"indiscriminate tariffs\". On the one hand, the U.S. trade deficit has expanded rapidly after the COVID-19 epidemic. On the other hand, the effect of U.S. trade restrictions on China is not obvious. Although China\\'s export share to the U.S. has declined, its global market share has remained relatively stable. This will increase the risk of launching \"indiscriminate tariffs\". 4. Industry: The ideas of “re-industrialization” are different, but artificial intelligence is equally valued. If Trump is elected, it may undermine the \"re-industrialization\" results achieved during Biden\\'s administration. Both Biden and Trump hope to revive the manufacturing industry, but their implementation ideas are different. Comparing the first three years of their administration, U.S. manufacturing employment increased by 6.3% and 3.5% respectively during the Biden and Trump periods, while non-residential construction spending increased by 38% and 18% respectively. This shows that the Biden administration’s manufacturing Industrial policies are more effective. The Biden administration\\'s investment plan lasts for 5-10 years. If Trump is elected, the consistency of the U.S. government\\'s investment and industrial policies will inevitably be threatened. Both parties will attach great importance to the development of AI, but the regulatory ideas are still unclear. 5. Market: It is expected to be relatively \"calm\". Financial market volatility is expected to be relatively limited between now and the end of the election. First, in a \"rematch\" situation, the public is more familiar with the two candidates and has greater policy certainty. Second, the expansionary fiscal orientation remains unchanged, the superimposed currency gradually returns to neutrality, and the U.S. economic outlook remains optimistic. Third, trading around tariff risks is expected to be relatively restrained. Looking back on 2018-19, against the background of the resumption of tariffs after the \"truce\" between China and the United States, the market reaction weakened significantly. Fourth, the AI \\u200b\\u200bdevelopment environment remains unchanged, and the prospects for economic growth and corporate profits remain optimistic. The election itself may not hinder the \"tech bull\" market in U.S. stocks. Specifically, the rise in U.S. stocks may not be too disrupted by the election, the impact of tariff risks on non-U.S. markets will be limited, and U.S. bond interest rates and the U.S. dollar index are expected to receive support and remain relatively high. Risk warning: U.S. election candidates change beyond expectations, candidates’ policy orientation changes beyond expectations, the U.S. economic and political environment changes beyond expectations, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('1faba558-17d3-5821-ae0e-e52593c216b5'), 'sentimentScore': 0.02385353296995163, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'JD4UD4MA0MP7C9A9N5HQ1OFV7FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:03:55 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'JD4UD4MA0MP7C9A9N5HQ1OFV7FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d498c37e-baea-52cd-b6b8-b7857a702ea8'), 'title': 'Interpretation of February PMI data: Festival consumption drives super-seasonal improvement in non-manufacturing industry', 'author': 'Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ1ZaYrD1Q2remrXgBQW1DOw=', 'researcher': '董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZ1ZaYrD1Q2remrXgBQW1DOw=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214884_1.pdf?1709543560000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214884_1.pdf?1709543560000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of February PMI data: Festival consumption drives super-seasonal improvement in non-manufacturing industry', 'originalAuthor': '董德志', 'originalContent': '事项：3月1日，2月中国采购经理人指数（PMI）公布，其中制造业PMI为49.1（环比-0.1pct）；非制造业为51.4（环比+0.7pct）。结论：总体而言，2月PMI数据表现不弱。制造业在淡季呈现出一定韧性。景气度环比虽小幅下降（-0.1pct）但相较2019（-0.3pct）、2021（-0.7pct）等可比年份，回落幅度不大。需要指出，数据的韧性可能来自前期低基数和春节假期更长带来的季调补偿等因素。分贡献因素看，主要拉动来自配送（贡献0.3pct），生产、原料库存和就业构成小幅拖累（-0.375pct、-0.02pct、0.02pct）。非制造业超季节性改善，环比持续回升（+0.7pct），节日消费旺盛是主要原因。具体来看，2月PMI有以下几点特征：一是制造业产需缺口明显收窄，但可持续性仍待观察。从相对变化看，本月PMI“产需差”在连续两个月的扩张后显著收窄：一方面受春节开工不足影响，生产明显放缓（-1.5pct）；另一方面新订单保持稳定（+0pct），“产需差”高位收窄1.5pct至0.8pct。二是库存/价格与“春节月份产需缺口收窄”特征吻合。库存方面，产成品与原材料库存双双下降。一方面，1月加速生产备货后，春节假期将产成品库存大幅消化，回落1.5pct至47.9。另一方面，企业春节停工采购意愿不足，原材料库存继续小幅回落，下降0.2pct至47.4。与此同时，价格指标走势背离：受企业采购不足影响，原材料价格继续下滑；而出厂价格受供需差改善提振显著回升。预期方面，产需缺口收敛叠加产成品价格回稳，制造业预期环比小幅改善（+0.2pct至54.2），但仍位于近期偏低水平。三是非制造业持续蓄力改善。从结构上看，服务业是主要拉动力量；建筑业继续小幅回落，但表现不弱。具体来看，节日出行及消费需求带动消费性服务业连续三个月反弹（本月+7.4pct至58.1），但随着生产放缓，生产性服务业继续走弱（-4.3pct至47.8）。这���特征也反映在不同规模非制造业企业的景气度上：消费性服务业居多的小型企业景气度改善（+7.5pct）明显强于大型（-5.9pct）、中型（+2.2pct）企业。制造业2月制造业PMI在春节淡季多因素扰动下，总体保持稳定。当月环比小幅回落0.1pct至49.1，连续5个月位于收缩区间。从季节性角度观察，今年开年淡季制造业景气度回落幅度小于2019和2021年等可比年份（PMI环比分别回落0.3和0.7pct）。即使综合考虑1-2月，今年累计变化幅度（0.1pct）也明显好于2019（-0.2pct）和2021（-1.3pct）。需要指出，这并不必然指向制造业表现较以往更好，回落幅度偏弱的原因可能来自前期低基数和春节假期更长带来的季调补偿等因素。分贡献因素看，主要拉动来自配送（贡献0.3pct），生产、原料库存和就业构成小幅拖累（-0.375pct、-0.02pct、0.02pct）。本月产需缺口明显收窄，但可持续性仍待观察。从相对变化看，本月PMI“产需差”在连续两个月的扩张后显著收窄：一方面受春节开工不足影响，生产明显放缓（-1.5pct）；另一方面新订单保持稳定（+0pct），“产需差”高位收窄1.5pct至0.8pct。从绝对水平看，生产回落至收缩区间（49.8），三大需求指标也同样位于收缩区间：新订单企稳（49），新出口订单（-0.9pct至46.3）和在手订单（-0.8pct至43.5）低位萎缩。库存/价格与“春节月份产需缺口收窄”特征相吻合。库存方面，产成品与原材料库存双双下降。一方面，1月加速生产备货后，春节假期将产成品库存大幅消化，回落1.5pct至47.9。另一方面，企业春节停工采购意愿不足，原材料库存继续小幅回落，下降0.2pct至47.4。与此同时，价格指标显著背离。受企业采购影响，原材料价格继续下滑，投入品价格下跌0.3pct至50.1；而出厂价格受供需差改善提振显著回升（+1.1pct至48.1），但仍未进入扩张区间。尽管企业“投入-产出成本差”有所修复，但投入品价格扩张而产成品价格收缩的趋势仍未改变，压制未来生产意愿。供应链方面，受春节人员紧张、运力饱和等因素影响配送时效显著下降（-2pct至48.8），对PMI形成提振。上述因素影响下，制造业预期有所企稳。预期方面，产需缺口收敛叠加产成品价格回稳，制造业预期环比小幅改善（+0.2pct至54.2），但仍位于近期偏低水平。就业方面，从业人员指数下降0.1pct至47.5,为过去15个月新低，一定程度受到春节劳动力流动高峰扰动。分规模看，不同规模企业PMI分化延续，规模越大企业韧性越强。“大小企业差”进一步扩张0.8pct至4pct，小型企业新订单显著走弱（-2.6pct至43.8）或是重要原因。非制造业2月非制造业PMI持续蓄力改善。景气度环比逆季节性回升0.7pct至51.4，改善幅度好于近三年春节水平（剔除2023年，平均+0.03pct）。从结构上看，服务业是非制造业PMI改善的主要来源；建筑业继续小幅回落，但仍位于较好水平。消费带动服务业PMI在扩张区间进一步巩固（环比增加0.9pct至51）。服务业内部分化依然明显：随着企业停工过节，生产性服务业景气度继续回落（-4.3pct至47.8），但节日出行及消费需求带动消费性服务业连续三个月反弹（本月+7.4pct至58.1）。建筑业PMI季节性回落，但仍维持较好水平。建筑业PMI环比下降0.4pct至53.5。具体来看，建筑业的支撑主要来自土木工程建筑业，环比回升8.5pct至60.4；拖累主要来自建筑安装装饰及其它建筑业（环比下降7.1pct至53.8）以及房屋建筑业（环比下降4.6pct至48.4）。从分项指标看，有三方面值得关注：一是消费主导下，小型企业景气度改善。当月大、中、小型非制造业企业PMI环比分别-5.9pct、+2.2pct和+7.5pct。这与小型企业利润（-3.8pct）和新订单（-4.9pct）显著改善有关，也凸显节日消费对于非制造业景气度改善的主导作用。二是企业利润有所走弱，“以价换量”特征明显。当月投入品价格指标上升（+1pct）而收费价格下滑（-0.4pct），企业利润率受到挤压（-1.8pct）。三是就业保持稳定。非制造业就业保持稳定，主要由建筑业拖累（-2.5pct至47.6），服务业起到稳定器作用（+0.5pct至46.9）。风险提示需求改善不及预期，海外经济进入衰退。', 'content': '事项：3月1日，2月中国采购经理人指数（PMI）公布，其中制造业PMI为49.1（环比-0.1pct）；非制造业为51.4（环比+0.7pct）。结论：总体而言，2月PMI数据表现不弱。制造业在淡季呈现出一定韧性。景气度环比虽小幅下降（-0.1pct）但相较2019（-0.3pct）、2021（-0.7pct）等可比年份，回落幅度不大。需要指出，数据的韧性可能来自前期低基数和春节假期更长带来的季调补偿���因素。分贡献因素看，主要拉动来自配送（贡献0.3pct），生产、原料库存和就业构成小幅拖累（-0.375pct、-0.02pct、0.02pct）。非制造业超季节性改善，环比持续回升（+0.7pct），节日消费旺盛是主要原因。具体来看，2月PMI有以下几点特征：一是制造业产需缺口明显收窄，但可持续性仍待观察。从相对变化看，本月PMI“产需差”在连续两个月的扩张后显著收窄：一方面受春节开工不足影响，生产明显放缓（-1.5pct）；另一方面新订单保持稳定（+0pct），“产需差”高位收窄1.5pct至0.8pct。二是库存/价格与“春节月份产需缺口收窄”特征吻合。库存方面，产成品与原材料库存双双下降。一方面，1月加速生产备货后，春节假期将产成品库存大幅消化，回落1.5pct至47.9。另一方面，企业春节停工采购意愿不足，原材料库存继续小幅回落，下降0.2pct至47.4。与此同时，价格指标走势背离：受企业采购不足影响，原材料价格继续下滑；而出厂价格受供需差改善提振显著回升。预期方面，产需缺口收敛叠加产成品价格回稳，制造业预期环比小幅改善（+0.2pct至54.2），但仍位于近期偏低水平。三是非制造业持续蓄力改善。从结构上看，服务业是主要拉动力量；建筑业继续小幅回落，但表现不弱。具体来看，节日出行及消费需求带动消费性服务业连续三个月反弹（本月+7.4pct至58.1），但随着生产放缓，生产性服务业继续走弱（-4.3pct至47.8）。这一特征也反映在不同规模非制造业企业的景气度上：消费性服务业居多的小型企业景气度改善（+7.5pct）明显强于大型（-5.9pct）、中型（+2.2pct）企业。制造业2月制造业PMI在春节淡季多因素扰动下，总体保持稳定。当月环比小幅回落0.1pct至49.1，连续5个月位于收缩区间。从季节性角度观察，今年开年淡季制造业景气度回落幅度小于2019和2021年等可比年份（PMI环比分别回落0.3和0.7pct）。即使综合考虑1-2月，今年累计变化幅度（0.1pct）也明显好于2019（-0.2pct）和2021（-1.3pct）。需要指出，这并不必然指向制造业表现较以往更好，回落幅度偏弱的原因可能来自前期低基数和春节假期更长带来的季调补偿等因素。分贡献因素看，主要拉动来自配送（贡献0.3pct），生产、原料库存和就业构成小幅拖累（-0.375pct、-0.02pct、0.02pct）。本月产需缺口明显收窄，但可持续性仍待观察。从相对变化看，本月PMI“产需差”在连续两个月的扩张后显著收窄：一方面受春节开工不足影响，生产明显放缓（-1.5pct）；另一方面新订单保持稳定（+0pct），“产需差”高位收窄1.5pct至0.8pct。从绝对水平看，生产回落至收缩区间（49.8），三大需求指标也同样位于收缩区间：新订单企稳（49），新出口订单（-0.9pct至46.3）和在手订单（-0.8pct至43.5）低位萎缩。库存/价格与“春节月份产需缺口收窄”特征相吻合。库存方面，产成品与原材料库存双双下降。一方面，1月加速生产备货后，春节假期将产成品库存大幅消化，回落1.5pct至47.9。另一方面，企业春节停工采购意愿不足，原材料库存继续小幅回落，下降0.2pct至47.4。与此同时，价格指标显著背离。受企业采购影响，原材料价格继续下滑，投入品价格下跌0.3pct至50.1；而出厂价格受供需差改善提振显著回升（+1.1pct至48.1），但仍未进入扩张区间。尽管企业“投入-产出成本差”有所修复，但投入品价格扩张而产成品价格收缩的趋势仍未改变，压制未来生产意愿。供应链方面，受春节人员紧张、运力饱和等因素影响配送时效显著下降（-2pct至48.8），对PMI形成提振。上述因素影响下，制造业预期有所企稳。预期方面，产需缺口收敛叠加产成品价格回稳，制造业预期环比小幅改善（+0.2pct至54.2），但仍位于近期偏低水平。就业方面，从业人员指数下降0.1pct至47.5,为过去15个月新低，一定程度受到春节劳动力流动高峰扰动。分规模看，不同规模企业PMI分化延续，规模越大企业韧性越强。“大小企业差”进一步扩张0.8pct至4pct，小型企业新订单显著走弱（-2.6pct至43.8）或是重要原因。非制造业2月非制造业PMI持续蓄力改善。景气度环比逆季节性回升0.7pct至51.4，改善幅度好于近三年春节水平（剔除2023年，平均+0.03pct）。从结构上看，服务业是非制造业PMI改善的主要来源；建筑业继续小幅回落，但仍位于较好水平。消费带动服务业PMI在扩张区间进一步巩固（环比增加0.9pct至51）。服务业内部分化依然明显：随着企业停工过节，生产性服务业景气度继续回落（-4.3pct至47.8），但节日出行及消费需求带动消费性服务业连续三个月反弹（本月+7.4pct至58.1）。建筑业PMI季节性回落，但仍维持较好水平。建筑业PMI环比下降0.4pct至53.5。具体来看，建筑业的支撑主要来自土木工程建筑业，环比回升8.5pct至60.4；拖累主要来自建筑安装装饰及其它建筑业（环比下降7.1pct至53.8）以及房屋建筑业（环比下降4.6pct至48.4）。从分项指标看，有三方面值得关注：一是消费主导下，小型企业景气度改善。当月大、中、小型非制造业企业PMI环比分别-5.9pct、+2.2pct和+7.5pct。这与小型企业利润（-3.8pct）和新订单（-4.9pct）显著改善有关，也凸显节日消费对于非制造业景气度改善的主导作用。二是企业利润有所走弱，“以价换量”特征明显。当月投入品价格指标上升（+1pct）而收费价格下滑（-0.4pct），企业利润率受到挤压（-1.8pct）。三是就业保持稳定。非制造业就业保持稳定，主要由建筑业拖累（-2.5pct至47.6），服务业起到稳定器作用（+0.5pct至46.9）。风险提示需求改善不及预期，海外经济进入衰退。', 'authorid': UUID('7f0ba462-39fa-5efc-b2aa-f8b8339a39b2'), 'sentimentScore': 0.009870626032352448, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'BOCF8KVKL7MTBEB1JQPTIBJ7IFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:00 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'BOCF8KVKL7MTBEB1JQPTIBJ7IFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c967ccc6-1048-521c-b616-4267d07ab55a'), 'title': 'February 2024 PMI Comments: Extreme weather disrupts the pace of resumption of work and production', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Zhang Yunjie', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': 'nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZwC22hzDS3CQ8iGF1NIE4ng=', 'researcher': '赵伟,张云杰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000369443'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=nTZc3cJ4pt7jUiHWnwBZZwC22hzDS3CQ8iGF1NIE4ng=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214855_1.pdf?1709542245000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403041625214855_1.pdf?1709542245000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'February 2024 PMI Comments: Extreme weather disrupts the pace of resumption of work and production', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,张云杰', 'originalContent': '事件：3月1日，国家统计局公布2月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.1、前值49.2；非制造业PMI为51.4、前值50.7。制造业PMI小幅回落，生产降幅较大制造业PMI小幅回落，极端天气影响下生产降幅较大。2月，制造业PMI49.1%、较上月下降0.1个百分点。主要分项中，生产、原材料库存指数分别回落1.5、0.2个百分点至49.8%、47.4%，新订单指数持平上月录得49%。供货商配送时间大幅回落2个百分点至48.8%，对PMI形成“反向”贡献，但其变化主因或在于极端天气而非需求改善。需求仍显不足，制造业库存再度“回踩”。2月，内、外需边际回落，进口、新出口订单指数分别下挫0.3、0.9个百分点至46.4%、46.3%，拖累采购量、在手订单指数分别回落1.2、0.8个百分点至48%、43.5%。由于生产端降幅更大，制造业库存再度“回踩”，产成品库存指数下滑1.5个百分点至47.9%。服务业景气回升，建筑业复工遭遇天气扰动服务业带动下，非制造业景气扩张。2月，服务业PMI边际上升0.9个百分点至51%、带动非制造业PMI回升0.7个百分点至51.4%。服务业PMI分项中，投入品价格、从业人员指数分别提升1.2、0.5个百分点至50.4%、46.9%，新订单、销售价格指数分别下滑1、0.3个百分点至46.7%、48.4%。极端天气扰动复工节奏，建筑业PMI有所回落。2月，全国大部地区遭遇寒潮、中东部地区出现冻雨等极端天气，建筑业PMI边际下滑0.4个百分点至53.5%。其中，新订单指数较上月改善0.6个百分点至47.3%；从业人员、销售价格指数再度回落至收缩区间，分别较上月下滑2.5、1.5个百分点至47.6%、48.9%。关注“外需”及“稳增长”链条的微观信号分行业看，关注“外需”或超预期的微观信号。高频数据显示，国内建筑业、上游加工制造等链条受极端天气扰动较大。相比之下，汽车、化工等链条节后复工形势明显更好；节后汽车开工率快速反弹、乘用车批发销量维持历史高位，PTA开工率、总需求量高位运行，或指向“外需”形势边际回暖。重申观点：阶段性扰动即将告一段落，“稳增长”三步走进行时，对于经济的支撑效果或将逐步显现。2024年春节时点较晚、节后复工复产遭遇极端天气，或对政策落地见效产生“滞后性”影响。3月上旬中东部地区或迎升温，本轮极端天气即将结束，重点关注“稳增长”相关链条的修复性变化。风险提示经济复苏不及预期，政策落地效果不及预期。', 'content': 'Event: On March 1, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the February PMI index. The manufacturing PMI was 49.1, the previous value was 49.2; the non-manufacturing PMI was 51.4, the previous value was 50.7. The manufacturing PMI fell slightly, and production dropped significantly. The manufacturing PMI fell slightly, and production dropped significantly due to the impact of extreme weather. In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among the main components, the production and raw material inventory index fell by 1.5 and 0.2 percentage points to 49.8% and 47.4% respectively, while the new orders index remained unchanged from the previous month at 49%. Supplier delivery time dropped sharply by 2 percentage points to 48.8%, forming a \"reverse\" contribution to PMI, but the main reason for the change may be extreme weather rather than improved demand. Demand is still insufficient, and manufacturing inventories are once again \"backing down\". In February, domestic and external demand fell marginally. The import and new export order index fell 0.3 and 0.9 percentage points respectively to 46.4% and 46.3%. This dragged down the purchase volume and orders on hand index and fell 1.2 and 0.8 percentage points respectively to 48% and 43.5%. . Due to a larger decline on the production side, manufacturing inventories once again \"rebounded\", and the finished goods inventory index fell by 1.5 percentage points to 47.9%. The service industry\\'s boom has rebounded, and the construction industry\\'s resumption has encountered weather disturbances. Driven by the service industry, the non-manufacturing boom has expanded. In February, the service PMI marginally increased by 0.9 percentage points to 51%, driving the non-manufacturing PMI to rebound by 0.7 percentage points to 51.4%. In the PMI sub-item of the service industry, the input price and employment index increased by 1.2 and 0.5 percentage points respectively to 50.4% and 46.9%, while the new orders and sales price index fell by 1 and 0.3 percentage points respectively to 46.7% and 48.4%. Extreme weather disrupted the pace of resumption of work, and the PMI of the construction industry fell back. In February, most of the country suffered from a cold wave and extreme weather such as freezing rain occurred in the central and eastern regions. The PMI of the construction industry fell by 0.4 percentage points to 53.5%. Among them, the new orders index improved by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month to 47.3%; the employment and sales price indexes fell back to the contraction range again, falling 2.5 and 1.5 percentage points from the previous month to 47.6% and 48.9% respectively. Pay attention to the micro signals of \"external demand\" and \"stable growth\" chains by industry, and pay attention to micro signals of \"external demand\" or exceeding expectations. High-frequency data shows that the domestic construction industry, upstream processing and manufacturing and other chains are greatly disturbed by extreme weather. In contrast, the post-holiday resumption situation of chains such as automobiles and chemicals is significantly better; the automobile operating rate rebounded rapidly after the holiday, the wholesale sales of passenger cars remained at historically high levels, and the PTA operating rate and total demand were running at high levels, which may point to \"external demand\" The situation is improving on the margins. To reiterate my point of view: the periodic disturbance is about to come to an end, and as the three-step \"stabilizing growth\" progress is underway, the supporting effect on the economy may gradually appear. The Spring Festival in 2024 will be late, and the resumption of work and production after the holiday will encounter extreme weather, which may have a \"hysteresis\" impact on the implementation of the policy. The central and eastern regions are likely to warm up in early March, and this round of extreme weather is coming to an end. The focus is on restorative changes in the chains related to \"stabilizing growth.\" Risks suggest that the economic recovery is not as good as expected and the effect of policy implementation is not as good as expected.', 'authorid': UUID('ff469869-b6c6-5748-a897-a67668ded608'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9656975180841982, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '9R5GCFSTA337J36SJLD0CBBOQFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:02 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '9R5GCFSTA337J36SJLD0CBBOQFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('76200be9-311f-5226-a19e-d491ca3cdb16'), 'title': 'Weekly observation on global major asset allocation: U.S. inflation pressure slows down and market risk appetite picks up', 'author': 'Yang Chao', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': '+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQLZ+6rLhsKvKFm2o+CNicSE=', 'researcher': '杨超', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000406637'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQLZ+6rLhsKvKFm2o+CNicSE=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625210393_1.pdf?1709546007000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625210393_1.pdf?1709546007000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly observation on global major asset allocation: U.S. inflation pressure slows down and market risk appetite picks up', 'originalAuthor': '杨超', 'originalContent': '核心观点：大类资产表现复盘：周内（2月26日至3月1日），美国通胀压力减缓，尽管美联储持续鹰派，美债收益率录得下行，带动大类资产价格回暖。大宗商品：（1）原油：受减产政策可能延长与地缘冲突升级的影响，原油价格大幅收涨。Brent原油涨2.36%，报83.55美元/桶，WTI原油涨4.55%，报79.97美元/桶。预计原油价格仍呈现周期波动。（2）黄金：地缘冲突升级叠加美国政府停摆危机，避险情绪升温；美债收益率与美元指数回落，黄金价格上涨。COMEX黄金期货涨2.28%，报2083.60美元/盎司，伦敦金现涨2.32%，报2082.40美元/盎司。预计贵金属价格仍有攀高的可能。债市：（1）美债：美国2023年第四季度GDP小幅下修，1月核心PCE价格指数增长符合预期，2月ISM制造业PMI回落至荣枯线以下，美国通胀压力放缓；尽管美联储的半年度货币政策报告声称美国通胀仍高于目标水平，且美联储官员密集发表“鹰派”言论，美债收益率仍有所回落，其中短债回落幅度大于长债。2年期美债收益率下行11BPs，报4.54%；10年期美债收益率下行4BPs，报4.33%。在美联储没有降息信号之前，预计美债收益率仍以震荡为主。（2）国债：受跨月资金利率上行的影响，央行在公开市场连续大额净投放，银行间债券通过柜台向居民开放的政策强化了久期供给预期，国债收益率震荡调整。10年期中债国债和国开债到期收益率分别下行3.34BPs、6.75BPs至2.37%、2.49%，1年期中债国债到期收益率上行1.34BPs至1.78%，1年期中债国开债到期收益率下行4.51BPs至1.84%。从中长期角度看，货币政策将整体延续宽松，随着经济基本面的温和修复，国债收益率仍有下行空间。汇率市场：（1）美元指数：美国经济出现降温迹象，美元指数跌0.09%，报103.8849。（2）欧元：欧洲股市小幅上涨支撑欧元走强；但欧元区通胀持续下降，部分弱化欧元涨势，欧元兑美元涨0.16%，报1.0839。（3）英镑：受英国央行即将开启降息的预期影响，英镑兑美元跌0.11%，报1.2656。（3）日元：日本1月CPI高于市场预期，强化了日本开启加息的押注；与此同时，日本央行官员表示日本央行有望退出超宽松货币政策，日元受到支撑，美元兑日元跌0.28%，报150.1105。（4）人民币：美元兑人民币维持相对稳定，基本与上周基本持平，报7.1985。权益市场：多数权益市场在“科技股”带领下创新高。（1）美股：人工智能概念持续火爆，叠加美国1月ISM制造业与消费者信心数据走软，美联储即将开启降息的预期使得市场风险偏好回暖，支撑美国股市上涨，标普500涨0.95%，纳斯达克指数涨1.74%，道琼斯工业指数跌0.11%。（2）A股：由于AI技术不断突破，叠加新质生产力概念持续受资金追捧，A股市场持续上扬；官方2月PMI显示经济修复斜率温和，A股涨势有所放缓，上证指数涨0.74%，深证成指涨4.03%，创业板指数涨3.74%。风险提示：全球经济下行风险，美联储降息时点及幅度不确定性风险，国际地缘因素不确定性风险，市场情绪不稳定性风险等。', 'content': 'Core view: Review of the performance of major asset classes: During the week (February 26 to March 1), inflationary pressure in the United States slowed. Despite the continued hawkishness of the Federal Reserve, U.S. bond yields fell, driving the price of major asset classes to recover. Commodities: (1) Crude oil: Affected by the possible extension of the production reduction policy and the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, crude oil prices closed sharply higher. Brent crude oil rose 2.36% to US$83.55/barrel, and WTI crude oil rose 4.55% to US$79.97/barrel. Crude oil prices are expected to still show cyclical fluctuations. (2) Gold: The escalation of geopolitical conflicts combined with the US government shutdown crisis has heightened risk aversion; US bond yields and the US dollar index have fallen, and gold prices have risen. COMEX gold futures rose 2.28% to US$2,083.60 per ounce, while London gold rose 2.32% to US$2,082.40 per ounce. Precious metal prices are still expected to rise. Bond market: (1) U.S. debt: U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 was slightly revised downwards, the core PCE price index growth in January was in line with expectations, the ISM manufacturing PMI fell back below the boom-bust line in February, and U.S. inflation pressure slowed; although The Federal Reserve\\'s semi-annual monetary policy report claimed that U.S. inflation is still above the target level, and Fed officials have made intensive \"hawkish\" remarks. U.S. bond yields have still fallen, with short-term bonds falling more than long-term bonds. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 11 BPs to 4.54%; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 4 BPs to 4.33%. Until there is no signal from the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, U.S. bond yields are expected to remain volatile. (2) Treasury bonds: Affected by the rise in cross-month funding rates, the central bank continued to make large net investments in the open market. The policy of opening inter-bank bonds to residents through the counter strengthened duration supply expectations, and Treasury bond yields fluctuated and adjusted. The maturity yields of the 10-year ChinaBond Treasury Bonds and China Development Bank Bonds fell by 3.34BPs and 6.75BPs to 2.37% and 2.49% respectively. The maturity yields of the 1-year ChinaBond Treasury Bonds rose by 1.34BPs to 1.78%. The yield to maturity fell by 4.51BPs to 1.84%. From a mid- to long-term perspective, monetary policy will continue to be loose as a whole. With the moderate recovery of economic fundamentals, there is still room for downward decline in government bond yields. Exchange rate market: (1) U.S. dollar index: The U.S. economy showed signs of cooling, with the U.S. dollar index falling 0.09% to 103.8849. (2) Euro: The slight rise in European stock markets supported the strength of the euro; however, inflation in the euro zone continued to decline, partially weakening the euro\\'s gains. The euro rose 0.16% against the US dollar to report at 1.0839. (3) Sterling: Affected by expectations that the Bank of England will soon cut interest rates, the pound fell 0.11% against the US dollar to 1.2656. (3) Japanese Yen: Japan’s CPI in January was higher than market expectations, strengthening Japan’s bets on raising interest rates; at the same time, Bank of Japan officials said the Bank of Japan is expected to exit its ultra-loose monetary policy, and the Japanese yen was supported. The yuan fell 0.28% to 150.1105. (4) RMB: The USD/CNY remained relatively stable, basically the same as last week, at 7.1985. Equity market: Most equity markets hit new highs led by “technology stocks”. (1) U.S. stocks: The concept of artificial intelligence continues to be popular, coupled with the softening of the U.S. ISM manufacturing and consumer confidence data in January, and the expectation that the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates, the market risk appetite has recovered, supporting the rise of the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 rose 0.95%, Na The Nasdaq rose 1.74% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.11%. (2) A-shares: As AI technology continues to make breakthroughs, and the concept of superimposed new productivity continues to be sought after by funds, the A-share market continues to rise; the official PMI in February showed that the economic recovery slope is moderate, the rise of A-shares has slowed down, and the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 0.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.03%, and the GEM Index rose 3.74%. Risk warning: risks of global economic downturn, risks of uncertainty about the timing and extent of the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate cut, risks of uncertainty about international geopolitical factors, risks of instability in market sentiment, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('8103051e-1ac3-52d1-ae97-4eef593ccd5a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.5000529140233994, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'RM6CH48OLFH4NNT7P8EQN5IUIFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:05 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'RM6CH48OLFH4NNT7P8EQN5IUIFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8343afa9-79f1-5da8-b919-e520ea9586c4'), 'title': 'Financial high-frequency data weekly report: Financial management may reduce deposit allocation', 'author': 'Zhang Jun, Xu Dongshi, Zhan Lu', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': '+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQFQsZvWnkKxvx6B6rm6+jAc=', 'researcher': '章俊,许冬石,詹璐', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000185520', '11000208436'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQFQsZvWnkKxvx6B6rm6+jAc=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625210309_1.pdf?1709545581000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625210309_1.pdf?1709545581000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Financial high-frequency data weekly report: Financial management may reduce deposit allocation', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,许冬石,詹璐', 'originalContent': '核心观点：近期21世纪经济报道，某省金融监管部门新近要求，在监管报表填写过程中，保险资管公司发行理财产品等募集的资金应填入“同业存放”科目，不得计入一般性存款。这意味着银行理财借助保险资管计划去配置大额存单等存款的行为，可能在未来有所减少，涉及的资金规模可能在2-3万亿元左右。由于受到净值化转型以及债市波动的影响，理财产品配置现金及银行存款的比例从2022年开始快速上行，截至2023年末，理财产品投资资产规模合计29.06万亿元，其中配置现金及银行存款约7.9万亿，占比26.7%，这个比例比2021年末提升15.3pct，快速增长。银行理财配置存款比例可能面临拐点，主要原因来自两方面：1、银行理财借助保险资管计划配置存款的现象可能减少；2、存款收益率下降，配置债券的意愿提升。银行理财之所以存在通过购买保险资管计划，再去配置存款的现象，是因为既可以算作一般性存款，收益也高于直接去银行存同业存款。但如果今后要计入同业存款，监管对同业存款有额度限制，从而会降低通过此方式配置存款的规模。根据上海证券报报道吉林、广西等地银行近日密集发布存款利率调整公告，对一年期、三年期和五年期的存款利率进行下调，下调幅度为10个基点至60个基点不等。近期部分中小银行调降存款利率，是对于去年12月国有大行调降存款利率的跟进。存款利率的下行使得存款类资产配置价值下降，债券配置价值相对提升，有可能成为存款替代，机构配置债券的比例提升。减少资金空转，降低金融风险。银行理财借助保险资管计划配置存款的行为，实际上资金并没有进入实体，只在金融体系循环，增加资金空转。同时，负债端和资产端可能存在期限错配，引发流动性风险。前期，我们对于央行四季度货币政策执行报告的解读报告曾指出，首次提出“加强货币市场宏观审慎管理，完善货币市场流动性监测机制”，对于金融机构期限错配可能引发的流动性风险的关注可能会进一步提升。本周市场观察（2月26日-3月1日）：公开市场操作：跨月净投放6320亿元，呵护流动性。货币市场利率月末季节性上行，但流动性依然保持合理充裕：SHIBOR007和DR007分别收于1.8060%（-1BP）、1.8197%（-2BP）。GC007收于2.045%（-16BP）。R007收于1.9890%（-14BP），跨月后与DR007利差缩小。银行间质押式回购日成交量小幅上升：从上周的约6.3万亿上升至约6.4万亿。国债收益率曲线走平，期限利差收窄：30年中债国债收益率向下突破2.5，收于2.49%（-9BP）；10年期向下突破2.4，收于2.37%（-3BP）；1年期收于1.78%（+1BP），同业存单发行利率继续回落：1年期国有银行同业存单发行利率回落至2.23%（-2BP）；股份制银行收于2.24%（-3BP）。美元指数小幅回落至103.88，非美货币涨跌互现，人民币基本持平：人民币即期汇率收于7.1985（+1pips），日元+0.28%、韩元-0.04%、欧元+0.16%、加元-0.41%、澳元-0.94%、英镑-0.11%。', 'content': 'Core point of view: According to a recent 21st Century Business Herald report, a provincial financial regulatory department recently required that during the process of filling out regulatory statements, funds raised by insurance asset management companies from issuing financial products and other products should be filled in the \"Interbank Deposits\" account and must not be included in general deposits. . This means that bank financial management\\'s use of insurance asset management plans to allocate large deposit certificates and other deposits may decrease in the future, and the scale of funds involved may be around 2-3 trillion yuan. Due to the impact of net worth transformation and bond market fluctuations, the proportion of cash and bank deposits allocated to wealth management products will begin to rise rapidly from 2022. As of the end of 2023, the total investment assets of wealth management products will total 29.06 trillion yuan, of which approximately 29.06 trillion yuan will be allocated to cash and bank deposits. 7.9 trillion, accounting for 26.7%. This proportion has increased by 15.3pct compared with the end of 2021, growing rapidly. The proportion of deposits allocated to bank financial management may face an inflection point, mainly due to two aspects: 1. The phenomenon of bank financial management using insurance asset management plans to allocate deposits may decrease; 2. The deposit yield rate declines, and the willingness to allocate bonds increases. The reason why bank financial management involves purchasing insurance asset management plans and then allocating deposits is because it can be regarded as a general deposit, and the income is higher than directly depositing interbank deposits in the bank. However, if interbank deposits are to be included in the future, supervision will impose quota limits on interbank deposits, which will reduce the scale of deposit allocation through this method. According to the Shanghai Securities News, banks in Jilin, Guangxi and other places have recently issued intensive deposit interest rate adjustment announcements, lowering the one-year, three-year and five-year deposit interest rates, ranging from 10 basis points to 60 basis points. The recent reduction of deposit interest rates by some small and medium-sized banks is a follow-up to the reduction of deposit interest rates by major state-owned banks in December last year. The decline in deposit interest rates has caused the value of deposit asset allocation to decline, while the value of bond allocation has relatively increased. It may become a substitute for deposits, and the proportion of institutions\\' bond allocation increases. Reduce idling of funds and reduce financial risks. Bank financial management relies on the insurance asset management plan to allocate deposits. In fact, the funds do not enter the entity, but only circulate in the financial system, increasing the idling of funds. At the same time, there may be a maturity mismatch between the liability side and the asset side, causing liquidity risks. Earlier, our interpretation of the central bank\\'s fourth quarter monetary policy implementation report pointed out that for the first time it was proposed to \"strengthen macro-prudential management of the money market and improve the money market liquidity monitoring mechanism\", focusing on the liquidity risks that may be caused by maturity mismatches in financial institutions. It may be improved further. Market observation this week (February 26-March 1): Open market operations: Net investment of 632 billion yuan across months to protect liquidity. Money market interest rates rose seasonally at the end of the month, but liquidity remained reasonably abundant: SHIBOR007 and DR007 closed at 1.8060% (-1BP) and 1.8197% (-2BP) respectively. GC007 closed at 2.045% (-16BP). R007 closed at 1.9890% (-14BP), and the interest rate difference with DR007 narrowed after the month. The daily trading volume of inter-bank pledged repos increased slightly: from about 6.3 trillion last week to about 6.4 trillion. The treasury bond yield curve flattened and the term spread narrowed: the 30-year China Bond treasury bond yield fell below 2.5 and closed at 2.49% (-9BP); the 10-year government bond yield fell below 2.4 and closed at 2.37% (-3BP) ; The 1-year interbank certificate of deposit issuance interest rate continued to fall: the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit issuance interest rate of state-owned banks fell to 2.23% (-2BP); the joint-stock bank closed at 2.24% (-3BP). The U.S. dollar index fell slightly to 103.88, non-U.S. currencies were mixed, and the RMB was basically unchanged: the spot exchange rate of the RMB closed at 7.1985 (+1pips), the Japanese yen +0.28%, the Korean won -0.04%, the euro +0.16%, the Canadian dollar - 0.41%, Australian dollar -0.94%, British pound -0.11%.', 'authorid': UUID('9691e2af-b977-525d-9856-67ec9bb87ebf'), 'sentimentScore': -0.016760120168328285, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'VKRNGMUHFQ1A5AVKL9GFKQIH3VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:08 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'VKRNGMUHFQ1A5AVKL9GFKQIH3VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('fa2caa15-782d-5758-9153-81dfb3c15c88'), 'title': 'Macro and major asset allocation weekly report: pay attention to equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in action plans', 'author': 'Sun Deji, Zhu Qibing', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-04', 'encodeUrl': '+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQLZyzO5y8RtZMe6jnDCkq1M=', 'researcher': '孙德基,朱启兵', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000296533', '11000224223'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQLZyzO5y8RtZMe6jnDCkq1M=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625210286_1.pdf?1709544513000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625210286_1.pdf?1709544513000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro and major asset allocation weekly report: pay attention to equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in action plans', 'originalAuthor': '孙德基,朱启兵', 'originalContent': '大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。宏观要闻回顾经济数据：中国2月官方制造业PMI为49.1%，环比下降0.1个百分点，主要是春节因素影响；非制造业PMI为51.4%，环比上升0.7个百分点，连续3个月上升且升幅较上月有所扩大，另外2月财新中国制造业PMI为50.9%，环比微升0.1个百分点，连续四个月位于扩张区间。要闻：中共中央政治局召开会议，讨论国务院拟提请第十四届全国人民代表大会第二次会议审议的《政府工作报告》稿。政协第十四届全国委员会第二次会议于将于3月4日在北京召开。国家统计局表示，当前正在开展的全国投入产出调查，新增新能源车整车制造业、新能源发电业、互联网和相关服务业等重点领域调查表，这有利于更全面准确了解我国经济结构新变化。资产表现回顾人民币资产表现有所分化。本周沪深300指数上涨1.38%，沪深300股指期货上涨1.46%；焦煤期货本周下跌1.05%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌1.63%；股份制银行理财预期收益率收于1.5%，余额宝7天年化收益率下跌5BP至1.90%；十年国债收益率下行3BP至2.37%，活跃十年国债期货本周下跌0.16%。资产配置建议大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。关注设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案。国务院常务会议审议通过《推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案》。会议指出，推动新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，是党中央着眼于我国高质量发展大局作出的重大决策。本次行动与以往有所不同，其一在于传统的基建和地产出现变化之后，扩大制造业投资和扩大内需正在成为新的稳增长抓手；其二是在高质量发展的大背景下，推动重点行业设备大规模更新有利于推动产业转型升级，提高经济增长潜力；其三，发挥能耗等标准的牵引作用，强调建立健全回收利用体系等则是对绿色环保目标的落实。关注行动后续部署。风险提示：全球通胀回落偏慢；欧美经济回落速度过快；国际局势复杂化。', 'content': 'The order of allocation of major asset categories: stocks>blocks>bonds>currency. Macro News Review of Economic Data: China\\'s official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the Spring Festival factors; non-manufacturing PMI was 51.4%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, rising for 3 consecutive months and increasing It expanded from the previous month. In addition, Caixin China\\'s manufacturing PMI in February was 50.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and it has been in the expansion range for four consecutive months. Important News: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the draft \"Government Work Report\" that the State Council plans to submit to the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress for review. The second meeting of the 14th CPPCC National Committee will be held in Beijing on March 4. The National Bureau of Statistics stated that the currently ongoing national input-output survey has added new questionnaires in key areas such as new energy vehicle manufacturing, new energy power generation, the Internet and related service industries, which is conducive to a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of our country\\'s economy. New structural changes. Asset Performance Review The performance of RMB assets has varied somewhat. The CSI 300 Index rose by 1.38% this week, and the CSI 300 stock index futures rose by 1.46%; coking coal futures fell by 1.05% this week, and the main iron ore contract fell by 1.63% this week; the expected return rate of joint-stock bank financial management closed at 1.5%, and the balance Bao\\'s 7-day annualized yield fell 5 BP to 1.90%; the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 3 BP to 2.37%. Active 10-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.16% this week. Asset allocation suggests the order of asset allocation for major categories: Stocks>Bulks>Bonds>Currency. Pay attention to equipment updates and consumer product trade-in action plans. The State Council executive meeting reviewed and approved the Action Plan for Promoting Large-Scale Equipment Updating and Trade-in of Consumer Goods. The meeting pointed out that promoting a new round of large-scale equipment updates and replacing old consumer goods with new ones is a major decision made by the Party Central Committee with an eye on the overall high-quality development of our country. This action is different from the past. First, after the changes in traditional infrastructure and real estate, expanding manufacturing investment and expanding domestic demand are becoming new means of stabilizing growth; second, in the context of high-quality development, promoting Large-scale updates of equipment in key industries are conducive to promoting industrial transformation and upgrading and increasing economic growth potential; thirdly, giving play to the pulling role of standards such as energy consumption and emphasizing the establishment and improvement of recycling systems are the implementation of green environmental protection goals. Pay attention to the follow-up deployment of actions. Risk warning: Global inflation is falling slowly; European and American economies are falling too fast; the international situation is complicated.', 'authorid': UUID('11f9398e-c969-5313-8931-19767ae86000'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8964135497808456, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '6G62NVM6J1OS2EDL42D8S9V2VJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:10 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '6G62NVM6J1OS2EDL42D8S9V2VJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7c99fee1-39df-5325-af3d-6980bbc66fb5'), 'title': 'Macro report: PMI recovers weakly, and the endogenous driving force of the economy needs to be strengthened', 'author': 'Yuanno', 'orgName': '中邮证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80036717', 'orgSName': '中邮证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-03', 'encodeUrl': '+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQIs0pP0npKv1UiMKeNSBDLw=', 'researcher': '袁野', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000266839'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQIs0pP0npKv1UiMKeNSBDLw=', 'site': 'China Post Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中邮证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625209741_1.pdf?1709487817000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625209741_1.pdf?1709487817000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro report: PMI recovers weakly, and the endogenous driving force of the economy needs to be strengthened', 'originalAuthor': '袁野', 'originalContent': '核心观点2 月制造业 PMI 数据呈现以下特点：（1）供需两端弱复苏，整体呈现供大于求的趋势，但供需缺口持续收窄；（2）量价回落，可能拖累 2 月工业企业利润增速；（3）需求向生产传导力度不足，新一轮库存周期开启仍需耐心等待；（4）市场主体景气度分化，小型企业仍需政策呵护。2 月非制造业 PMI 显示，当前非制造业相对更为向好，虽然弱于季节性表现，但仍处于扩张区间，其中建筑业受益于近期密集的稳增长政策，景气度韧性仍在；服务业需求有所回落，未来景气度或将边际回落。2024 年是实现“十四五”规划的关键一年。 2 月 PMI 数据显示，当前社会预期仍弱、需求不足问题是制约经济持续修复的核心问题。结合中央经济工作会议“稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破”的基调，以及近期政策动态， 2024 年稳增长政策有望持续发力，稳增长的重点可能会重回房地产、基建领域，不过核心是托底市场，而非大幅刺激。向后看，一季度降息降准政策落地，刺激房地产和消费，并提振市场预期，但经济修复动力仍不足；二季度财政加大政策支持力度， 接续房地产宽松政策，房地产调控有望进一步优化，共同拉动需求回升。此阶段，为配合财政政策，货币政策降准预期仍在；三季度相机决策，新的库存周期启动。房地产市场拐点出现后，经济韧性增强，需求向生产传导机制修复，新的一轮库存周期有望正式开始，成为 2024 年四季度乃至 2025 年经济的重要支撑，直接决定了经济复苏的持续性。风险提示：外需超预期疲软；房地产市场修复不及预期；海外地缘政治冲突加剧。', 'content': 'Core Views The February manufacturing PMI data showed the following characteristics: (1) There was a weak recovery at both ends of supply and demand, with the overall trend of oversupply showing, but the gap between supply and demand continued to narrow; (2) Volume and price fell, which may drag down the profits of industrial companies in February growth rate; (3) The transmission of demand to production is insufficient, and we still need to wait patiently for the start of a new round of inventory cycles; (4) The prosperity of market entities is divided, and small enterprises still need policy protection. The non-manufacturing PMI in February shows that the current non-manufacturing industry is relatively better. Although it is weaker than the seasonal performance, it is still in the expansion range. Among them, the construction industry has benefited from the recent intensive stabilizing growth policies, and the resilience of the economy is still there; services Industry demand has declined, and the future prosperity may decline marginally. 2024 is a critical year for the realization of the “14th Five-Year Plan”. February PMI data shows that current social expectations are still weak and insufficient demand is the core issue restricting the continued recovery of the economy. Combined with the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference of \"seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through promotion, establishing first and breaking down later\" and recent policy developments, policies to stabilize growth are expected to continue to be effective in 2024, and the focus of stabilizing growth may return to real estate and infrastructure. field, but the core is to support the market rather than significantly stimulate it. Looking backward, the policy of cutting interest rates and reserve requirement ratios in the first quarter was implemented, stimulating real estate and consumption, and boosting market expectations, but the impetus for economic recovery is still insufficient; in the second quarter, the fiscal year increased policy support and continued the easing policy in real estate, and real estate regulation is expected to be further optimized. jointly drive demand recovery. At this stage, in order to cooperate with fiscal policy, expectations for monetary policy reduction are still there; discretionary decisions are made in the third quarter, and a new inventory cycle begins. After the turning point of the real estate market appears, the economic resilience increases, the demand-to-production transmission mechanism is restored, and a new round of inventory cycle is expected to officially begin, becoming an important support for the economy in the fourth quarter of 2024 and even 2025, directly determining the sustainability of economic recovery. Risk warning: External demand is weaker than expected; the real estate market is not recovering as expected; overseas geopolitical conflicts are intensifying.', 'authorid': UUID('41b3960d-9709-5ae8-b077-aad17d16ee4a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.88288389518857, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8INDRTDV69100J756D1AHGRCBNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:13 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8INDRTDV69100J756D1AHGRCBNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('49b6f104-264d-534b-a5e2-7cfda33e3422'), 'title': 'Macro monthly report: Discussing the general trend in the first quarter of the year (2024)', 'author': 'Xu Wenyu, Gao Cong', 'orgName': '华泰期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80055521', 'orgSName': '华泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-03', 'encodeUrl': '+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQGODvIYRiI21j6Np0HViHiY=', 'researcher': '徐闻宇,高聪', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000194620', '11000304231'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQGODvIYRiI21j6Np0HViHiY=', 'site': 'Huatai Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625209696_1.pdf?1709485163000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625209696_1.pdf?1709485163000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro monthly report: Discussing the general trend in the first quarter of the year (2024)', 'originalAuthor': '徐闻宇,高聪', 'originalContent': '策略摘要2月末国内的A股重返3000，全球的道金比在去年四季度开始美联储结束加息的引导下持续回升，2月末接近调整通道的高点附近。两者都隐含了两大国改善金融周期的努力。展望3月，周期向下的力量仍在发酵，国内宽货币的政策已经开启，关注两会政策对冲，国外高利率对增量的压力继续上升，关注联储不降息条件下资产负债表政策的变动。核心观点市场分析宏观周期：关注经济改善和政策落地之间时间差。从2023年开始美国经济呈现同比放缓但环比改善的特征，也支持着美联储短期政策不宽松。国内从2015年开始实施供给侧结构性改革，货币政策持续处在“稳健中性”的状态之中，在经济增长的波动中调整逆周期和跨周期的分配。随着海外延续短期“不降息”的倔强，国内2月降准降息政策的出台，稳增长的需求短期上升，预计经济数据仍将表现出短期压力的特征。价格周期：名义增长的改善需要落实再分配政策。一季度的M1开启了政策扩张的周期，市场预期的改善进入到了左侧观察区间。从政策落地开启到经济数据改���之间，存在着时间差。我们预计在央行2024年货币政策强调价格目标的情况下，价格的改善将领先于实际经济增长的改善，同时，价格是一个经济结构变动的指示器，关注“高质量”领域的价格溢价。政策周期：政策处在扩张的初期，变量仅在节奏。2月货币政策的降准和降息开启了本轮宏观政策宽松的序幕，在财政扩张缓慢的“缺资产”状态下，长久期国债大幅上涨，TL-MLF利差趋平。关注两会财政政策对于国内需求创造的增量影响，关注市场预期差带来的调整压力。策略宏观策略进入到配置的左侧区间，建议波动率资产的对冲头寸（+VXM24）继续持有，宽松货币的初期预计收益率曲线仍有扁平空间（1×T-2TS）。风险美联储意外加息，地缘风险意外上升', 'content': 'Strategy summary: Domestic A-shares returned to 3,000 at the end of February, and the global Dow Jones ratio continued to rise under the guidance of the Federal Reserve ending interest rate hikes starting in the fourth quarter of last year, and was close to the high point of the adjustment channel at the end of February. Both imply efforts by the two major countries to improve the financial cycle. Looking forward to March, the downward cyclical forces are still fermenting. Domestic loose monetary policy has been launched. Pay attention to the policy hedging of the two sessions. Foreign high interest rates continue to increase the pressure on growth. Pay attention to the changes in the balance sheet policy of the Federal Reserve without cutting interest rates. Core point of view: market analysis of macro cycles: focus on the time difference between economic improvement and policy implementation. Starting from 2023, the U.S. economy will show a year-on-year slowdown but a month-on-month improvement, which also supports the Fed\\'s short-term policy of not being loose. Domestic supply-side structural reforms have been implemented since 2015, and monetary policy has continued to be in a \"stable and neutral\" state, adjusting counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical allocations amid fluctuations in economic growth. As overseas countries continue to be stubborn about not cutting interest rates in the short term, and the domestic policy of cutting reserve requirements and interest rates in February has been introduced, the demand for stable growth has increased in the short term, and it is expected that economic data will still show the characteristics of short-term pressure. Price cycle: Improvements in nominal growth require the implementation of redistributive policies. M1 in the first quarter started a cycle of policy expansion, and the improvement in market expectations entered the left observation range. There is a time lag between the implementation of policies and the improvement of economic data. We expect that with the central bank\\'s monetary policy emphasizing price targets in 2024, price improvements will precede improvements in real economic growth. At the same time, prices are an indicator of changes in economic structure, focusing on price premiums in \"high-quality\" areas. Policy cycle: The policy is in the early stages of expansion, and the variable is only the rhythm. The reserve reserve ratio and interest rate cuts in February marked the beginning of this round of macroeconomic policy easing. In the \"short of assets\" state of slow fiscal expansion, long-term government bonds rose sharply, and the TL-MLF interest rate spread flattened. Pay attention to the incremental impact of the fiscal policies of the two sessions on the creation of domestic demand, and pay attention to the adjustment pressure caused by the difference in market expectations. The strategic macro strategy has entered the left range of the allocation. It is recommended to continue to hold the hedging position of volatility assets (+VXM24). The initial period of loose money is expected to still have room to flatten the yield curve (1×T-2TS). Risks: The Federal Reserve unexpectedly raised interest rates, and geopolitical risks unexpectedly rose.', 'authorid': UUID('a8f34728-ec3a-5739-b5e7-1087eb48ea4d'), 'sentimentScore': 0.10450759530067444, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'MOHI1RNFQ937HACSUMNURCBPNVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'MOHI1RNFQ937HACSUMNURCBPNVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0ffceeae-8fdb-52a5-8db8-d34048bf3abf'), 'title': 'Observation of the Local Two Sessions and Prospects of the National Two Sessions in 2024: Focus on industrial upgrading and promote high-quality development', 'author': 'Cheng Qiang', 'orgName': '德邦证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000217', 'orgSName': '德邦证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-03', 'encodeUrl': '+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQM2vVvXCBXIv8/78F3eIuEc=', 'researcher': '程强', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000296632'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQM2vVvXCBXIv8/78F3eIuEc=', 'site': 'Debon Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '德邦证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625209686_1.pdf?1709484778000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625209686_1.pdf?1709484778000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Observation of the Local Two Sessions and Prospects of the National Two Sessions in 2024: Focus on industrial upgrading and promote high-quality development', 'originalAuthor': '程强', 'originalContent': '投资要点：预计2024年GDP增速目标在5%左右：2024年31省、自治区、直辖市GDP加权平均增速目标为5.4%。但近年来各地增速目标的实现难度在扩大，我们预计，2024年全国GDP增速目标定在5%左右可能比较合适。重点化债省份是经济增长压力的观察样本，困难主要来自投资下降和消费潜力不明朗：重点化债省份实现增长目标的难度比其他省份更大，12个重点化债省份多数在2024年调降了经济增速的政府预期目标，化债约束下，重点省份投资可能面临不小压力，同时消费增长的潜力仍不明朗。产业升级和区域协调发展是2024年地方政府工作重视的两个方面：产业升级是2024年各地政府工作报告关注的方向。由于地产行业持续疲软，各地亟需寻找替代房地产的经济增长新引擎，也由于中国经济逐步向高质量发展转变，各地政府对经济增长的质的关注增加，产业升级可能成为中国经济下一个阶段的主线。2024年财政政策展望：预计2024年赤字率将安排在3%左右，对应赤字规模在4万亿以上；专项债规模有望略增，预计安排在3.9万亿左右，且专项债发行有望相对前置；预计今年有望发行1万亿的长期建设国债或者特别国债。此外，PSL、专项建设基金、PPP等“准财政”政策工具也有望配合发力。类似1998年的“长期建设国债”有望再次发行：去年年中增发的1万亿国债纳入中央赤字并分两年安排，与1998-2008年的长期建设国债有相似之处，我们预计2024年若重启类“长期建设国债”的发行，则规模有望在1万亿左右。财政政策发力效果受到地方政府财力的影响：预计地产拖累下，仍将进一步制约地方政府性基金预算支出。预计2024年地方本级政府性基金收入约为56862亿元，较2023年减少约9425亿元，这是制约地方财政发力的重要因素。2024年货币政策展望：当前财政积极发力的紧迫性在于总需求不足，旨在通过增加财政支出、利用杠杆效应增加社会总投资、消费规模。央行或将通过加强信贷管理、提高信贷使用效率积极配合财政发力。货币政策“和价格水平预期目标相匹配”的指向：货币政策基调表述新提法核心指向或还是落在通胀本身，2024年货币政策或将着力促使通胀回归温和上升，而这或仍将通过货币政策保持灵活宽松、刺激需求扩张来实现。制约国内货币政策的外部因素有望在2024年下半年缓解：过去两年中，我国央行货币政策“内外均衡”目标的实现难度不小，中美名义利率倒挂导致汇率贬值压力经常阶段性加剧。2024年，美国大概率转向降息周期，首次降息或将发生在6月，届时掣肘我国货币政策的汇率压力或将得到缓解。全国两会关键词预测：结合地方两会关注的要点，我们认为，全国两会可能有以下五大关键词：新质生产力、高质量发展；绿色发展、“双碳”目标；扩大内需；统一大市场；深化改革。风险提示：政策支持力度不及预期；政策落地执行不及预期；经济复苏进程不及预期', 'content': 'Investment points: The GDP growth target is expected to be around 5% in 2024: the weighted average GDP growth target of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in 2024 is 5.4%. However, in recent years, it has become more difficult to achieve growth targets in various regions. We predict that it may be more appropriate to set the national GDP growth target at around 5% in 2024. Key provinces with debt are an observation sample of economic growth pressure. The difficulties mainly come from declining investment and unclear consumption potential: it is more difficult for key provinces with debt to achieve growth targets than other provinces. Most of the 12 key provinces with debt will be reduced in 2024. The government\\'s expected economic growth target has been exceeded, and under the constraints of debt reduction, investment in key provinces may face considerable pressure. At the same time, the potential for consumption growth remains unclear. Industrial upgrading and coordinated regional development are two aspects that local governments will focus on in 2024: Industrial upgrading is the focus of local government work reports in 2024. As the real estate industry continues to weaken, various regions are in urgent need of finding new engines of economic growth that can replace real estate. Also, as China\\'s economy gradually shifts to high-quality development, local governments are paying more attention to the quality of economic growth. Industrial upgrading may become the key to the next stage of China\\'s economy. main line. Fiscal policy outlook for 2024: It is expected that the deficit rate in 2024 will be around 3%, and the corresponding deficit scale will be more than 4 trillion; the scale of special bonds is expected to increase slightly, and is expected to be around 3.9 trillion, and special bond issuance is expected to be relatively early ; It is expected that 1 trillion long-term construction treasury bonds or special treasury bonds are expected to be issued this year. In addition, \"quasi-fiscal\" policy tools such as PSL, special construction funds, and PPP are also expected to cooperate. \"Long-term construction treasury bonds\" similar to those in 1998 are expected to be issued again: the 1 trillion additional treasury bonds issued in the middle of last year were included in the central deficit and arranged in two years. They are similar to the long-term construction treasury bonds from 1998 to 2008. We expect that if The issuance of restarted \"long-term construction treasury bonds\" is expected to be around 1 trillion. The effectiveness of fiscal policy is affected by the financial resources of local governments: it is expected that the drag on real estate will further restrict local government fund budget expenditures. It is estimated that the revenue of local government funds in 2024 will be approximately 5,686.2 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 942.5 billion yuan compared with 2023. This is an important factor restricting local fiscal efforts. Monetary policy outlook for 2024: The current urgency of active fiscal efforts lies in insufficient aggregate demand, aiming to increase total social investment and consumption scale by increasing fiscal expenditures and using leverage effects. The central bank may actively cooperate with fiscal efforts by strengthening credit management and improving the efficiency of credit use. The direction of monetary policy to “match the expected price level target”: The core direction of the new formulation of monetary policy tone may still fall on inflation itself. In 2024, monetary policy may focus on promoting a return to moderate inflation, and this may still be through monetary policy. This can be achieved by maintaining flexible and loose policies to stimulate demand expansion. External factors restricting domestic monetary policy are expected to ease in the second half of 2024: In the past two years, it has been difficult for the People\\'s Bank of my country to achieve the \"internal and external balance\" goal of monetary policy, and the inversion of nominal interest rates in China and the United States has often intensified the pressure on exchange rate depreciation. In 2024, there is a high probability that the United States will shift to an interest rate cutting cycle, and the first interest rate cut may occur in June. By then, the exchange rate pressure that has constrained my country\\'s monetary policy may be alleviated. Keyword predictions for the National Two Sessions: Combining the key points of the local Two Sessions, we believe that the National Two Sessions may have the following five keywords: new productivity, high-quality development; green development, \"double carbon\" goals; expanding domestic demand; unifying the large market; deepening reform. Risk warning: policy support is less than expected; policy implementation is less than expected; economic recovery process is less than expected', 'authorid': UUID('a2700561-8738-5acf-b44a-342784ba77a6'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6230440586805344, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'L4161ECEVK83R7G80H3N7TUMJBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:19 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'L4161ECEVK83R7G80H3N7TUMJBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('87c1dcf2-81b3-5c48-8acd-d2225e52c941'), 'title': 'Comments on February PMI data: Three clues that overcapacity has begun to ease.', 'author': 'Cheng Qiang', 'orgName': '德邦证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000217', 'orgSName': '德邦证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-03', 'encodeUrl': '+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQLUeGbPVjwJs44qAS7AbTZs=', 'researcher': '程强', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000296632'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQLUeGbPVjwJs44qAS7AbTZs=', 'site': 'Debon Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '德邦证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625209685_1.pdf?1709484778000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625209685_1.pdf?1709484778000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February PMI data: Three clues that overcapacity has begun to ease.', 'originalAuthor': '程强', 'originalContent': '投资要点：核心观点：受春节假期影响，2月制造业PMI小幅下行，服务业PMI继续扩张。从行业来看，制造业PMI小幅下降主因化学、汽车和纺织服装行业拉动。从企业规模来看，2月大型企业PMI继续高于临界点。在本月制造业PMI细分项数据中，只有出厂价格和生产经营活动预期分项环比上升，这两个指标可以用来辅助观测产能过剩开始缓解的程度。此外，2月中采和财新PMI的背离也可以辅助判断。展望未来，在稳政策的加持下，三大工程、万亿国债以及产能政策有望加速制造业等行业优胜劣汰，制造业景气度有望重回扩张区间。事件：2024年2月，中国制造业采购经理指数（制造业PMI）为49.1%，较上月下降0.1个百分点；中国非制造业商务活动指数（非制造业PMI）为51.4%，较上月上升0.7个百分点。制造业PMI：受春节假期以及疫情防控平稳转段后企业员工假期返乡影响，制造业进入生产淡季，2月制造业景气较前值有所下降。2024年2月份，生产指数为49.8%，较前值下降1.5个百分点，较过去五年均值高4.6个百分点，继续位于临界值以下，表明制造业企业生产活动生产仍在收缩，但步伐有所加快；新订单指数为49.0%，与前值持平，较过去五年均值高4.2个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所增加。2月中国制造业PMI新出口订单指数为46.3%，较前值下降0.9个百分点，未能延续1月份的上升趋势。2024年1月全球制造业PMI回到荣枯线上方，结束了16个月以来低于荣枯线的收缩状态，全球制造业景气度回升，叠加国内春节结束，生产生活逐步恢复，有望拉动海外订单，对我国出口形成有力支撑。从结构上看，制造业PMI小幅下降主因化学、汽车和纺织服装行业拉动。根据中采统计，制造业PMI分行业来看，石油加工及炼焦业、计算机通信电子设备业及仪器仪表制造业、通用设备制造业、医药制造和金属制品业PMI处于扩张区间，金属制品和非金属矿物制品业2月PMI分别较1月增加13.6和8.3个百分点。2月制造业PMI的小幅下降，主要由化学原料以及化学制品业（2月PMI为39.8%，较1月下降13.5个百分点）、汽车制造业（2月PMI为48.7%，较1月下降13个百分点）和纺织服装装饰业（2月PMI为46.2，较1月下降12个百分点）三大行业拖累。分企业规模来看，2月大型企业PMI继续高于临界点。大型企业PMI为50.4%，与上月持平，继续位于扩张区间，其中生产指数和新订单指数连续10个月保持在临界点以上；中型企业PMI为49.1%，比上月上升0.2个百分点；小型企业受春节假日影响更为明显，本月PMI为46.4%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，生产经营活动放缓。非制造业商务活动指数位于临界点以上，服务业扩张速度继续加快。2024年2月份，非制造业PMI为51.4%，较前值上升0.7个百分点，非制造业景气度增强，其中服务业景气度增强、建筑业景气度减弱。其中，服务业2月PMI为51.0%，环比+0.9%，服务业加速扩张，或与春节期间消费热度提高有关；建筑业2月PMI为53.5%，环比-0.4%，或与寒潮以及春节停工有关。航空运输和电信广播业生产经营活动经营状况指数位于60.0%以上高位景气区间。但地产投资持续疲弱，地产后周期等大宗消费仍存不足，房地产业2月PMI为47.6%，处于收缩区间。产能过剩开始有所“缓解”，向后看制造业景气度有望重新回到扩张区间。2023年12月召开的中央经济工作会议指出，当前经济所面临的困难和挑战包括“有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱、风险隐患仍然较多”，近期如何去产能成为焦点话题。在此次制造业PMI数据中，环比上升的只有出厂价格分项和生产经营活动预期分项，这两个指标可以辅助观测产能过剩开始缓解的程度，此外，2月中采和财新PMI的背离也可以辅助判断。（1）出厂价格指数衡量本月主要产品的平均出厂价格。2月出厂价格指数为48.1%，较前值上升1.1个百分点，表明出厂价格处于收缩放缓阶段，即可能处于产能缺口的缩小阶段或预示产能缺口即将缩窄。用产成品库存+生产代替供给，用在手订单+新订单代替需求，计算得出2月产出缺口增速自1月的环比24.4%下降至2月的7.4%，也可验证产能过剩开始有所“缓解”。（2）生产经营活动预期指数是未来3个月内生产经营活动整体水平的统计。2月���产经营活动预期指数为54.2%，较前值上升0.2个百分点，表明企业对春节后市场发展信心有所增强。2月8日国家发展改革委会同工业和信息化部、财政部、住房城乡建设部、市场监管总局、国家能源局等部门印发了《重点用能产品设备能效先进水平、节能水平和准入水平》，强调“加快提升产品设备节能标准。”有望加速各行业中能效偏低产品设备的“出清”。因此从这两个指标综合来看，在稳政策加持下，三大工程和万亿国债等有望加速制造业等行业优胜劣汰，制造业景气度有望重回扩张区间。（3）此外，2月中采PMI与财新PMI呈现背离也可辅助判断。2月中国制造业采购经理指数（制造业PMI）为49.1%，较上月下降0.1个百分点；2月财新中国制造业采购经理人指数（制造业PMI）为50.9%，较上月上升0.1个百分点，连续四个月高于荣枯线。中采PMI样本企业的行业分布可能更为全面，尤其是重工业比重相对较高，而财新PMI样本企业的行业分布可能更集中于轻工业和服务业。财新PMI更加敏感，更能反映出中国经济的变动趋势和增量特征。综合来看，财新PMI代表部分高敏感行业的景气度，这与前文提到的《重点用能产品设备能效先进水平、节能水平和准入水平》中强调的加速出清是契合的，因此可以将此次背离理解为部分行业的景气度正在领先回升。风险提示：稳增长政策对内需的拉动效果不及预期；三大工程进展不及预期；美联储货币政策超预期。', 'content': '投资要点：核心观点：受春节假期影响，2月制造业PMI小幅下行，服务业PMI继续扩张。从行业来看，制造业PMI小幅下降主因化学、汽车和纺织服装行业拉动。从企业规模来看，2月大型企业PMI继续高于临界点。在本月制造业PMI细分项数据中，只有出厂价格和生产经营活动预期分项环比上升，这两个指标可以用来辅助观测产能过剩开始缓解的程度。此外，2月中采和财新PMI的背离也可以辅助判断。展望未来，在稳政策的加持下，三大工程、万亿国债以及产能政策有望加速制造业等行业优胜劣汰，制造业景气度有望重回扩张区间。事件：2024年2月，中国制造业采购经理指数（制造业PMI）为49.1%，较上月下降0.1个百分点；中国非制造业商务活动指数（非制造业PMI）为51.4%，较上月上升0.7个百分点。制造业PMI：受春节假期以及疫情防控平稳转段后企业员工假期返乡影响，制造业进入生产淡季，2月制造业景气较前值有所下降。2024年2月份，生产指数为49.8%，较前值下降1.5个百分点，较过去五年均值高4.6个百分点，继续位于临界值以下，表明制造业企业生产活动生产仍在收缩，但步伐有所加快；新订单指数为49.0%，与前值持平，较过去五年均值高4.2个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所增加。2月中国制造业PMI新出口订单指数为46.3%，较前值下降0.9个百分点，未能延续1月份的上升趋势。2024年1月全球制造业PMI回到荣枯线上方，结束了16个月以来低于荣枯线的收缩状态，全球制造业景气度回升，叠加国内春节结束，生产生活逐步恢复，有望拉动海外订单，对我国出口形成有力支撑。从结构上看，制造业PMI小幅下降主因化学、汽车和纺织服装行业拉动。根据中采统计，制造业PMI分行业来看，石油加工及炼焦业、计算机通信电子设备业及仪器仪表制造业、通用设备制造业、医药制造和金属制品业PMI处于扩张区间，金属制品和非金属矿物制品业2月PMI分别较1月增加13.6和8.3个百分点。2月制造业PMI的小幅下降，主要由化学原料以及化学制品业（2月PMI为39.8%，较1月下降13.5个百分点）、汽车制造业（2月PMI为48.7%，较1月下降13个百分点）和纺织服装装饰业（2月PMI为46.2，较1月下降12个百分点）三大行业拖累。分企业规模来看，2月大型企业PMI继续高于临界点。大型企业PMI为50.4%，与上月持平，继续位于扩张区间，其中生产指数和新订单指数连续10个月保持在临界点以上；中型企业PMI为49.1%，比上月上升0.2个百分点；小型企业受春节假日影响更为明显，本月PMI为46.4%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，生产经营活动放缓。非制造业商务活动指数位于临界点以上，服务业扩张速度继续加快。2024年2月份，非制造业PMI为51.4%，较前值上升0.7个百分点，非制造业景气度增强，其中服务业景气度增强、建筑业景气度减弱。其中，服务业2月PMI为51.0%，环比+0.9%，服务业加速扩张，或与春节期间消费热度提高有关；建筑业2月PMI为53.5%，环比-0.4%，或与寒潮以及春节停工有关。航空运输和电信广播业生产经营活动经营状况指数位于60.0%以上高位景气区间。但地产投资持续疲弱，地产后周期等大宗消费仍存不足，房地产业2月PMI为47.6%，处于收缩区间。产能过剩开始有所“缓解”，向后看制造业景气度有望重新回到扩张区间。2023年12月召开的中央经济工作会议指出，当前经济所面临的困难和挑战包括“有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱、风险隐患仍然较多”，近期如何去产能成为焦点话题。在此次制造业PMI数据中，环比上升的只有出厂价格分项和生产经营活动预期分项，这两个指标可以辅助观测产能过剩开始缓解的程度，此外，2月中采和财新PMI的背离也可以辅助判断。（1）出厂价格指数衡量本月主要产品的平均出厂价格。2月出厂价格指数为48.1%，较前值上升1.1个百分点，表明出厂价格处于收缩放缓阶段，即可能处于产能缺口的缩小阶段或预示产能缺口即将缩窄。用产成品库存+生产代替供给，用在手订单+新订单代替需求，计算得出2月产出缺口增速自1月的环比24.4%下降至2月的7.4%，也可验证产能过剩开始有所“缓解”。（2）生产经营活动预期指数是未来3个月内生产经营活动整体水平的统计。2月生产经营活动预期指数为54.2%，较前值上升0.2个百分点，表明企业对春节后市场发展信心有所增强。2月8日国家发展改革委会同工业和信息化部、财政部、住房城乡建设部、市场监管总局、国家能源局等部门印发了《重点用能产品设备能效先进水平、节能水平和准入水平》，强调“加快提升产品设备节能标准。”有望加速各行业中能效偏低产品设备的“出清”。因此从这两个指标综合来看，在稳政策加持下，三大工程和万亿国债等有望加速制造业等行业优胜劣汰，制造业景气度有望重回扩张区间。（3）此外，2月中采PMI与财新PMI呈现背离也可辅助判断。2月中国制造业采购经理指数（制造业PMI）为49.1%，较上月下降0.1个百分点；2月财新中国制造业采购经理人指数（制造业PMI）为50.9%，较上月上升0.1个百分点，连续四个月高于荣枯线。中采PMI样本企业的行业分布可能更为全面，尤其是重工业比重相对较高，而财新PMI样本企业的行业分布可能更集中于轻工业和服务业。财新PMI更加敏感，更能反映出中国经济的变动趋势和增量特征。综合来看，财新PMI代表部分高敏感行业的景气度，这与前文提到的《重点用能产品设备能效先进水平、节能水平和准入水平》中强调的加速出清是契合的，因此可以将此次背离理解为部分行业的景气度正在领先回升。风险提示：稳增长政策对内需的拉动效果不及预期；三大工程进展不及预期；美联储货币政策超预期。', 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'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000233049', '11000281531', '11000281843', '11000431035'], 'count': 1, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQCY09ejF+ibdSit/+DUCU04=', 'site': 'CCB Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '建信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625208642_1.pdf?1709475107000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625208642_1.pdf?1709475107000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Market Monthly Report: China’s central bank cuts reserve requirement ratio and interest rates', 'originalAuthor': '何卓乔,黄雯昕,董彬,王天乐', 'originalContent': '观点摘要2023年底至2024年初中国政策利率保持稳定，刺激政策预期落空提振债券并打压股市，雪球敲入压力则使得1月份中国股市加速寻底，中国出台刺激政策的压力上升；1月24日中国央行宣布自2月5日起全面下调存准率0.5个百分点，并分别下调支农再贷款、支小再贷款和再贴现利率各0.25个百分点，市场信心一度得到提振。但月底香港高等法院裁定恒大清盘，市场对中国房地产市场的悲观预期再次发酵，并引发两融和量化等结构性风险；2月7日监管层决定撤换证监会主席，2月20日中国央行不对称下调LPR，中国股票市场风险偏好得到提振，但债券市场仍期待中国央行进一步下调政策利率以改善经济增长前景。美国经济就业韧性以及通胀形势反复使得美联储在通胀形势显著缓和之后仍对开启降息进程保持谨慎态度，中国财政政策受到债务压力高企、房地产市场疲软以及国际地缘政治风险的抑制，而货币政策也通过中美利差和人民币汇率等途径受到美欧央行货币政策的牵引，中美制造业库存压力较高的现实意味着新一轮库存周期开启的前提条件是美联储降息，由此风险资产的企稳回升有待于美联储开启降息进程。但目前中国股债差值已经达到2008年以来的高水平区间，而在美联储货币政策立场确定转变的情况下中国央行也可以在美联储降息前适当宽松，因此中国股债差值转折时点有可能提前，1月份和2月份中国央行全面降准之后又不对称降息，政策呵护下蓝筹股已经呈现企稳迹象。综合来看建议中期内超配蓝筹价值股和原油，标配利率债和黄金而低配货币、信用债和中小成长股。', 'content': \"Summary of views: China’s policy interest rates will remain stable from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024. The failure of stimulus policy expectations boosted bonds and suppressed the stock market. Snowball pressure caused the Chinese stock market to accelerate its search for the bottom in January, and the pressure for China to introduce stimulus policies increased; January 24 Japan's central bank announced that it would cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points across the board starting from February 5, and cut the re-lending to support agriculture, re-loan to support small businesses and the rediscount rate by 0.25 percentage points each, boosting market confidence. However, at the end of the month, the Hong Kong High Court ruled that Evergrande would be liquidated. The market's pessimistic expectations for China's real estate market once again fermented, triggering structural risks such as financing and quantification. On February 7, regulators decided to remove the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. On February 20, the People's Bank of China refused to The symmetrical reduction of LPR has boosted the risk appetite of China's stock market, but the bond market still expects the People's Bank of China to further cut policy interest rates to improve economic growth prospects. The employment resilience of the U.S. economy and the repeated inflationary situation have made the Federal Reserve still cautious about starting the process of cutting interest rates even after the inflation situation has significantly eased. China's fiscal policy has been restrained by high debt pressure, weak real estate market, and international geopolitical risks, while monetary policy has also passed Interest rate differentials between China and the United States and the RMB exchange rate are driven by the monetary policies of the central banks of the United States and Europe. The reality of high manufacturing inventory pressure in China and the United States means that the prerequisite for the start of a new round of inventory cycle is the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which will lead to the stabilization and recovery of risk assets. It’s up to the Federal Reserve to start the process of cutting interest rates. However, the current gap between China's stocks and bonds has reached a high level since 2008, and when the Fed's monetary policy stance is determined to change, the People's Bank of China can also be appropriately easing before the Fed cuts interest rates. Therefore, there is a possibility of a turning point in the gap between China's stocks and bonds. Ahead of time, the central bank of China cut interest rates asymmetrically after comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts in January and February. Blue-chip stocks have shown signs of stabilizing under the protection of the policy. Taken together, it is recommended that in the medium term, we overweight blue chip value stocks and crude oil, standard weight interest rate bonds and gold, and underweight currencies, credit bonds, and small and medium-sized growth stocks.\", 'authorid': UUID('679b89eb-97c4-5e53-8c41-c01a877e890f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9004597179591656, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'SINGM3H324CAC1J78D7758FLT7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:26 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'SINGM3H324CAC1J78D7758FLT7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('4bbb0581-e791-5284-8bc2-6e31a009af38'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic special report: PMI shows economic growth remained stable in February', 'author': 'Liu Yang', 'orgName': '格林大华期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80069367', 'orgSName': '格林期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-03', 'encodeUrl': '+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQGYDpH+b2dM0JAms2A5aFZw=', 'researcher': '刘洋', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000284232'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQGYDpH+b2dM0JAms2A5aFZw=', 'site': 'Green Dahua Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '格林期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625208617_1.pdf?1709476528000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625208617_1.pdf?1709476528000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic special report: PMI shows economic growth remained stable in February', 'originalAuthor': '刘洋', 'originalContent': '摘要3月1日国家统计局公布2月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.1%，前值49.2%。因为今年春节假期在2月，制造业处于传统生产淡季，季节性因素导致2月PMI较1月有所回落。2月生产指数为49.8%，前值51.3%，春节因素影响制造业生产略有收缩。2月新订单指数为49.0%，前值49.0%。2月新出口订单指数为46.3%，前值47.2%。反映需求不足的企业占比超过60%，需求不足的问题仍然突出。2月PMI主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为50.1%和48.1%，前值分别为50.4%和47.0%。国内工业品通胀继续保持较低水平。2月PMI原材料库存指数为47.4%，前值47.6%；产成品库存指数为47.9%，前值49.4%。制造业企业继续谨慎增加存货，未进入补库存周期。2月份非制造业商务活动指数为51.4%，前值50.7%。2月建筑业商务活动指数为53.5%，前值53.9%。受低温天气及春节假日影响，建筑业进入施工淡季。同时2月新房销售继续偏弱，对建筑业业务活动预期也有不利影响。2月服务业商务活动指数为51.0%，上月50.1%。春节假日因素带动了出行、旅游、餐饮等服务行业，2月服务业扩张力度有所增强。2月份，综合PMI产出指数为50.9%，与上月持平，2月整体经济增长保持平稳。', 'content': \"Summary: On March 1, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) in February was 49.1%, the previous value was 49.2%. Because this year's Spring Festival holiday falls in February, the manufacturing industry is in the traditional production off-season, and seasonal factors have caused the PMI to fall in February compared with January. The production index in February was 49.8%, compared with the previous value of 51.3%. Manufacturing production shrank slightly due to the Spring Festival factor. The new orders index in February was 49.0%, compared with the previous value of 49.0%. The new export orders index in February was 46.3%, compared with the previous value of 47.2%. More than 60% of companies reported insufficient demand, and the problem of insufficient demand is still prominent. In February, the PMI purchasing price index of main raw materials and the ex-factory price index were 50.1% and 48.1% respectively, compared with the previous values \\u200b\\u200bof 50.4% and 47.0% respectively. Domestic industrial product inflation continues to remain at a low level. In February, the PMI raw materials inventory index was 47.4%, the previous value was 47.6%; the finished goods inventory index was 47.9%, the previous value was 49.4%. Manufacturing companies continue to cautiously increase inventories and have not entered an inventory replenishment cycle. The non-manufacturing business activity index in February was 51.4%, compared with the previous value of 50.7%. The construction industry business activity index in February was 53.5%, compared with the previous value of 53.9%. Affected by low temperature weather and the Spring Festival holiday, the construction industry has entered the off-season. At the same time, new home sales continued to be weak in February, which also had an adverse impact on expectations for business activities in the construction industry. The service industry business activity index was 51.0% in February, compared with 50.1% in the previous month. The Spring Festival holiday factor has driven the travel, tourism, catering and other service industries, and the expansion of the service industry has increased in February. In February, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.9%, the same as last month. The overall economic growth remained stable in February.\", 'authorid': UUID('523fea45-5d65-507a-bbc0-d0cfeff42c97'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9613741999492049, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '5ILF2FJ1SBPDTOO064ADPSFQNBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:28 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '5ILF2FJ1SBPDTOO064ADPSFQNBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c951efec-06ae-5037-85b4-2bcbbfc38405'), 'title': 'PMI Comments on February 2024: Domestic demand improved weakly from January to February, but production is still relatively fast', 'author': 'Guo Rui', 'orgName': '山西证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000080', 'orgSName': '山西证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-03', 'encodeUrl': '+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQA+UmQMwZPhda0TW9S68cQQ=', 'researcher': '郭瑞', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000179017'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQA+UmQMwZPhda0TW9S68cQQ=', 'site': 'Shanxi Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '山西证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625207569_1.pdf?1709465676000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625207569_1.pdf?1709465676000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'PMI Comments on February 2024: Domestic demand improved weakly from January to February, but production is still relatively fast', 'originalAuthor': '郭瑞', 'originalContent': '核心观点：2月制造业景气度略回落，非制造业景气度回升。2月制造业PMI为49.1%（前值49.2%）。由于2月经济受季节性影响，合并1-2月看，制造业景气度整体较去年12月弱改善。从2011年以来的数据看，这种边际改善仅发生在2012年、2017年、2023年同期。非制造业商务活动指数为51.4%（前值50.7%）。非制造业中，服务业商务活动指数为51.0%（前值50.1%），受春节假日等因素带动扩张进一步加快；建筑业商务活动指数为53.5%（前值53.9%），受春节假期及低温雨雪天气等因素影响。内需稳定，外需回落，1-2月生产好于需求，经济动能指数回落。2月新订单指数为49.0%，与上月持平。新出口订单指数为46.3%（前值47.2%）。2月生产指数为49.8%（前值51.3%），主要受春节假日影响，制造业处于传统生产淡季。由于1月生产指数大幅走升，合并1-2月看，生产整体好于去年12月。趋势上，生产相对于新订单和在手订单均处于高位，因此难言生产端开始调整。2月产成品库存指数为47.9%（前值49.4%），合并1-2月看，依然处于高位水平。2月经济动能指数（新订单-产成品库存）为1.1%，1-2月总体仍在回落。出厂价回升，购进价回落，价差略恢复。2月主要原材料购进价格指数为50.1%（前值50.4%），出厂价格指数48.1%（前值47.0%）。1-2月整体价格水平仍回落。受原材料开始去库存因素，出厂与购进价差为-2.0%（前值-3.4%），有利于中下游企业利润恢复。制造业信心回升但采购量放缓。2月制造业、建筑业、服务业生产经营活动预期指数分别为54.2%（前值54.0%）、55.7%（前值61.9%）、58.1%（前值59.3%）。1-2月整体信心不及去年12月。采购量明显回落且相对于生产偏弱。市场启示：1-2月内需边际弱改善及两会政策博弈扰动债市。春节以来债市偏强，收益率曲线继续平坦。驱动因素主要包括：LPR下调之后债券相对于贷款性价比提升；近期多家银行密集下调存款利率，机构负债成本进一步下行；节后资金面偏松及二季度MLF利率下调和大行新一轮存款利率下调预期；2月末票据转贴现利率在反弹后走低预示融资需求的反复；价格信号偏弱等。3月1日PMI公布，债券市场出现明显调整，10年及30年国债期货价格单日大幅下跌0.43%、1.16%。1-2月内需边际弱改善、两会政策博弈、止盈压力等是扰动债市的主要原因。短期看上述扰动还将持续，债市偏震荡。中期看，经济内生动能有待恢复，我们判断本次债市调整为阶段性。风险提示：两会出台超预期稳增长政策。', 'content': 'Core view: The manufacturing boom declined slightly in February, while the non-manufacturing boom rebounded. The manufacturing PMI in February was 49.1% (previous value 49.2%). As the economy in February was affected by seasonal factors, looking at January and February combined, the overall manufacturing boom improved slightly compared to December last year. Judging from the data since 2011, this marginal improvement only occurred in the same period in 2012, 2017, and 2023. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.4% (previous value 50.7%). Among non-manufacturing industries, the business activity index of the service industry was 51.0% (previous value: 50.1%), with expansion further accelerating due to factors such as the Spring Festival holiday; the business activity index of the construction industry was 53.5% (previous value: 53.9%), due to the Spring Festival holiday and low temperatures. Affected by rain, snow and other factors. Domestic demand is stable, external demand is falling, production was better than demand in January and February, and the economic momentum index fell. The new orders index in February was 49.0%, the same as last month. The new export orders index was 46.3% (previous value 47.2%). The production index in February was 49.8% (previous value 51.3%). Mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the manufacturing industry is in the traditional production off-season. As the production index rose sharply in January, looking at January and February combined, production was overall better than in December last year. On the trend, production is at a high level relative to both new orders and orders on hand, so it is difficult to say that the production side has begun to adjust. The inventory index of finished goods in February was 47.9% (the previous value was 49.4%). Looking at the combined January and February, it is still at a high level. The economic momentum index (new orders-finished goods inventory) in February was 1.1%, and it was still falling overall from January to February. The ex-factory price rebounded, the purchase price fell, and the spread slightly recovered. The purchase price index of main raw materials in February was 50.1% (previous value 50.4%), and the ex-factory price index was 48.1% (previous value 47.0%). The overall price level still fell from January to February. Affected by the destocking of raw materials, the difference between ex-factory and purchase prices was -2.0% (previous value -3.4%), which is conducive to the recovery of profits of midstream and downstream companies. Manufacturing confidence rebounded but purchases slowed. The expected index of production and operation activities in the manufacturing, construction, and service industries in February was 54.2% (previous value 54.0%), 55.7% (previous value 61.9%), and 58.1% (previous value 59.3%) respectively. Overall confidence in January-February was lower than in December last year. Purchase volume dropped significantly and was weaker than production. Market Enlightenment: The weak marginal improvement in domestic demand in January and February and the policy game between the two sessions disturbed the bond market. The bond market has been strong since the Spring Festival and the yield curve continues to be flat. The main driving factors include: after the LPR reduction, the cost performance of bonds relative to loans has improved; many banks have recently intensively lowered deposit interest rates, and institutional liability costs have further declined; the funding situation has been loose after the holiday, and the MLF interest rate has been lowered in the second quarter and a new round of deposit interest rates of major banks. Expectations have been lowered; the bill transfer discount rate fell after rebounding at the end of February, indicating a recurrence of financing needs; price signals are weak, etc. PMI announced on March 1 that there was a significant adjustment in the bond market, with the prices of 10-year and 30-year Treasury bond futures falling sharply by 0.43% and 1.16% in a single day. The weak marginal improvement in domestic demand in January and February, the policy game between the two sessions, and the pressure to stop profits are the main reasons for disturbing the bond market. In the short term, the above disturbances will continue, and the bond market will be volatile. In the medium term, the endogenous momentum of the economy needs to be restored, and we judge this bond market adjustment to be a phased one. Risk warning: The two sessions introduced policies to stabilize growth beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('e521f4b9-7006-505f-b080-07c6b67b7ccf'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9147038590162992, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'RB27TGB9V7LQCB49QG2LAVM2VBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:31 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'RB27TGB9V7LQCB49QG2LAVM2VBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2ad96c15-1c49-5519-a61d-8957a2b5401d'), 'title': 'How China’s economy will recover (6): From the performance of 4Q listed industrial companies to exceeding expectations to a positive cycle in the new cycle', 'author': 'Fan Lei, Fang Shichao', 'orgName': '国联证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000028', 'orgSName': '国联证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-03', 'encodeUrl': '+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQHUvTi2zLDh2eiPkQwbYmnE=', 'researcher': '樊磊,方诗超', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000175009', '11000369352'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQHUvTi2zLDh2eiPkQwbYmnE=', 'site': 'Guolian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625207557_1.pdf?1709462265000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625207557_1.pdf?1709462265000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'How China’s economy will recover (6): From the performance of 4Q listed industrial companies to exceeding expectations to a positive cycle in the new cycle', 'originalAuthor': '樊磊,方诗超', 'originalContent': '核心观点：2023年4季度规上工业企业盈利的明显回升尚未引起资本市场的充分重视。我们发现规上工业企业利润波动与上市公司利润波动高度趋同。4季度规上工业企业利润的回升可能意味着正在公布的工业类上市公司年报有超预期的可能，包括中下游制造业上市公司。此外，企业利润的改善与资本支出持续走强，叠加消费有改善的迹象，可能意味着以资本支出为主导的正循环已经可以对冲地产的下行，并推动中国经济逐步迎来新周期的复苏。规上工业企业利润与上市工业公司利润有较高相关性规上工业企业增加值占中国全部工业增加值的95%以上。但是，受到统计口径调整，基数效应扭曲等多方面因素的影响，投资者对规上工业企业利润是否能够代表上市公司利润存在疑虑。我们发现，经过季调以后的规上工业企业利润和ROA与工业类上市公司的利润和ROA高度趋同，两者ROA的拟合优度高达0.78。这种较高的相关性也同样适用于中下游制造业以及剔除烟草等国有特许经营部门之后的中下游制造业（ROA拟合优度约为0.7）。2023年4季度工业上市公司利润或超预期由于季调后规上工业企业利润自去年8月以来大幅回升（12月较7月共回升27.4%），我们预计正在公布的上市工业企业年报整体或超预期。其中，中下游行业可能也有一定改善——但是受到相关行业周期性较弱的影响，其改善比较温和。从行业上看，除了偏上游的钢铁、有色等行业外，机械设备维修、化学纤维制造、木材制品、纺织业、造纸与印刷、金属制品以及酒饮行业ROA的回升幅度好于制造业ROA回升的平均水平。新周期的正循环或正在启动工业利润改善、企业资本支出走强，以及春节期间消费数据超预期的回升，可能意味着资本支出推动产出增加和真实收入改善，收入改善进一步带动投资和消费等终端需求回升的正循环已经逐步成型。从1月社融超预期和1-2月PMI超季节性（好于季节规律0.4、0.3pct）来看，以资本支出为核心的正循环可能已经可以对冲地产的下行，并推动中国经济逐步进入新的复苏周期。回顾历史，2003年的中国经济过热就主要受制造业投资驱动。海外经验:地产危机后新周期一旦启动，资本市场常迎来长期牛市从美国、瑞典、韩国等国家走出地产长周期拐点之后的衰退，走向经济复苏的经验来看，股票市场常常出现长期牛市。我们认为这一现象可能与新经济周期主要受到资本支出驱动，周期的长度偏长有关。风险提示：经济二次探底时间长于预期，政策意外收紧，外需和地缘政治发生不利变化，地产出现系统性风险', 'content': \"Core point of view: The significant rebound in profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in the fourth quarter of 2023 has not yet attracted sufficient attention from the capital market. We found that the profit fluctuations of industrial enterprises above designated size are highly consistent with the profit fluctuations of listed companies. The rebound in profits of above-average industrial companies in the fourth quarter may mean that the annual reports of industrial listed companies being released may exceed expectations, including listed companies in the mid- and downstream manufacturing industries. In addition, the improvement of corporate profits and the continued strength of capital expenditures, coupled with signs of improvement in consumption, may mean that the positive cycle led by capital expenditures can hedge against the downturn of real estate and promote the gradual recovery of the Chinese economy into a new cycle. There is a high correlation between the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size and the profits of listed industrial companies. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size accounts for more than 95% of China's total industrial added value. However, affected by various factors such as adjustment of statistical caliber and distortion of base effect, investors have doubts about whether the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size can represent the profits of listed companies. We found that after seasonal adjustment, the profits and ROA of industrial enterprises above designated size are highly consistent with the profits and ROA of industrial listed companies, and the goodness of fit of the two ROA is as high as 0.78. This higher correlation also applies to the mid- to downstream manufacturing industry and the mid-to-downstream manufacturing industry after excluding state-owned franchised sectors such as tobacco (ROA goodness of fit is about 0.7). The profits of listed industrial companies in the fourth quarter of 2023 may exceed expectations. As the profits of industrial companies above regulatory standards have rebounded sharply since August last year after seasonally adjustment (a total rebound of 27.4% in December compared with July), we expect that the annual reports of listed industrial companies being announced will be overall or Exceeded expectations. Among them, the mid-stream and downstream industries may also see some improvement - but due to the weak cyclicality of related industries, their improvement is relatively mild. From an industry perspective, in addition to the upstream steel, non-ferrous metals and other industries, the recovery in ROA of machinery and equipment maintenance, chemical fiber manufacturing, wood products, textile industry, paper making and printing, metal products and wine and beverage industries is better than that of the manufacturing industry. average level. The positive cycle of the new cycle may be starting to improve industrial profits, strengthen corporate capital expenditures, and the unexpected rebound in consumption data during the Spring Festival, which may mean that capital expenditures drive output increases and real incomes improve, and income improvements further drive investment and consumption. A positive cycle of demand recovery has gradually taken shape. Judging from the higher-than-expected social financing in January and the super-seasonal PMI from January to February (better than the seasonal pattern of 0.4 and 0.3pct), the positive cycle with capital expenditure as the core may have been able to hedge against the downturn of real estate and promote the gradual development of China's economy. Entering a new recovery cycle. Looking back at history, China's economic overheating in 2003 was mainly driven by manufacturing investment. Overseas experience: Once a new cycle starts after the real estate crisis, the capital market often experiences a long-term bull market. Judging from the experience of the United States, Sweden, South Korea and other countries that have emerged from the recession after the turning point of the long real estate cycle and moved toward economic recovery, the stock market often experiences a long-term bull market. We believe this phenomenon may be related to the fact that the new economic cycle is mainly driven by capital expenditures and the length of the cycle is relatively long. Risk warning: The second dip in the economy lasts longer than expected, policies are unexpectedly tightened, external demand and geopolitics undergo adverse changes, and systemic risks arise in real estate\", 'authorid': UUID('b6747a67-28e3-5d3e-a47d-fd6929bfa2b9'), 'sentimentScore': -0.614599883556366, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'U0S3NU0KJK2KV0U9FUN4HAU31FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:33 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'U0S3NU0KJK2KV0U9FUN4HAU31FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('4375135d-ae7e-5eb4-9c57-bb9f6c814225'), 'title': 'Prospects for the Two Sessions: New Productivity, Replacing Old with New, and Fiscal Expansion', 'author': 'Qin Tai', 'orgName': '华金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000134', 'orgSName': '华金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-03', 'encodeUrl': '+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQJdytpSUvY9PbparblsuK7o=', 'researcher': '秦泰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249937'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=+SVsQiEOOGlZ4X7dOY4wQJdytpSUvY9PbparblsuK7o=', 'site': 'Huajin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625204520_1.pdf?1709462189000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403031625204520_1.pdf?1709462189000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Prospects for the Two Sessions: New Productivity, Replacing Old with New, and Fiscal Expansion', 'originalAuthor': '秦泰', 'originalContent': '投资要点重申以进促稳、先立后破，预计经济增长目标5.0%左右。政治局会议重申了2023年中央经济工作会议的要求，延续“以进促稳、先立后破”的定调，强调加大宏观调控力度要求积极进取，预计可能以5.0%左右作为2024年经济增长的总体目标。供给侧：新质生产力、大规模设备更新、全国统一大市场。中央经济工作会议首次提出“发展新质生产力”，今年两会的一大看点就是将提出怎样的经济政策和改革政策组合以推动新质生产力加快发展？我们预计大规模设备更新和全国统一大市场基础制度规则的建设完善是主要的政策着力点。预计将提出包括鼓励先进生产设备加速折旧、加计折旧或直接给予一定财政补贴在内的��施，假设减少财政收入或增加支出2000亿，可以撬动约6000亿增量投资，则预计提升制造业和基础设施投资分别约2个百分点左右，对2024年经济增长的拉动作用约0.5个百分点。消费品以旧换新，适度优化二次分配，夯实大循环内需主动力。从资金保障角度来看，预计财政对消费品以旧换新支出约2000亿左右，加上对资源循环利用的鼓励、以及适度的个税减税，预计额外刺激居民耐用消费品更新需求约4000亿左右，推动社会消费品零售总额同比增速提升约1个百分点至5.5%左右。预计今年两会可能提出全年约2000亿规模的适度个税减税方案，具体工具包括提升起征点，扩大低税率税档的应税收入金额，以及提升6项个税抵扣项的减免税收额度或增加新的抵扣项等等。尽管我们预期的2000亿左右年化减税规模并不大，与GDP之比来看只有2019年个税减税力度的1/3左右，但如果进一步考虑到大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新所额外对应的财政支出或减收预测规模，实际上财政对于消费和先进设备投资的支持力度合计起来是与2019年个税减税的力度相近的。房地产及地方债务风险化解加快，关注保障房建设和新型基建。有序稳妥化解房地产市场风险预计仍将是主要定调，供给侧预计仍将强调保交付、去库存和对应的白名单融资保障，需求侧则将进一步实施“兜底性”的政策，保障房建设的加力实施或将成为主要亮点。预计土地出让金收入跌幅有望收窄至5%左右。预计2024年商品房销售面积、房地产开发投资同比分别下跌约5%和约7%，跌幅均较2023年有所收窄，但尚不足以转正。加快增发万亿国债水利项目实施落地，“长期特别国债”部分替代专项债专注新型基建，满足融资需求的同时缓解偿债压力，推动地方政府债务风险有序化解。预计2024年新增专项债规模缩减为3.3万亿，并发行长期特别国债1万亿，财政对基建投资和地方债务风险化解的支持力度同步提升。财政政策：预计赤字率3.6%、3.5万亿专项债、1万亿特别国债。预计2024年一般公共预算财政收入、支出同比分别增长2%、7%左右。由于财政收支增速连年呈现收入增长慢于支出的格局，2024年一般公共预算表见收支缺口预计将进一步加大，对应的一般公共预算内赤字率预计需安排在3.6%左右，较增发万亿国债后的2023年小幅下调0.2个百分点。土地出让金收入的进一步下滑意味着政府性基金预算对一般公共预算的资金支持力度将持续缩减，3.5万亿的新增专项债加上额外的1万亿长期特别国债才能形成有效支持。货币政策：配合性合理宽松，降准、中端降息可期。货币政策积极主动配合财政政策，增强宏观经济政策的一致性，实施充足的长期流动性投放并引导融资成本逐步有序下降是2024年全年的基调。我们维持2024年仍需降准50BP的预测不变，下一个降准的时间窗口预计为9月FOMC会议召开之前；预计后续仍将继续实施向1YLPR和MLF利率倾斜的小幅降息操作，进一步降低5YLPR的概率较低。风险提示：稳增长政策力度不及预期风险。', 'content': 'The key points of investment are reiterated to promote stability, establish first and then break, and the economic growth target is expected to be around 5.0%. The Politburo meeting reiterated the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference in 2023, continued the tone of \"promoting stability, establishing first and then breaking\", and emphasized the need to increase macro-control efforts and require proactive progress. It is expected that the economic growth rate in 2024 may be around 5.0%. overall goal of growth. Supply side: new productivity, large-scale equipment updates, and a unified national market. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed \"developing new productive forces\" for the first time. One of the highlights of this year\\'s Two Sessions is what combination of economic policies and reform policies will be proposed to accelerate the development of new productive forces? We expect that large-scale equipment updates and the construction and improvement of the basic system and rules of the national unified large market will be the main policy focus. It is expected that measures including encouraging accelerated depreciation of advanced production equipment, additional depreciation or direct financial subsidies will be proposed. Assuming that fiscal revenue is reduced or expenditures are increased by 200 billion, approximately 600 billion in incremental investment can be leveraged, and the manufacturing industry is expected to be improved. and infrastructure investment are about 2 percentage points respectively, and the driving effect on economic growth in 2024 is about 0.5 percentage points. Consumer goods are replaced with new ones, secondary distribution is appropriately optimized, and the main driving force of domestic demand in the general cycle is consolidated. From the perspective of funding security, it is estimated that the fiscal expenditure on the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones is about 200 billion. Coupled with the encouragement of resource recycling and moderate personal tax cuts, it is expected to stimulate an additional demand of about 400 billion for the replacement of durable consumer goods among residents, promoting social development. The year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods increased by about 1 percentage point to around 5.5%. It is expected that this year\\'s Two Sessions may propose a moderate personal income tax reduction plan of about 200 billion for the whole year. Specific tools include raising the threshold, expanding the amount of taxable income in low-tax tax brackets, and increasing the tax reduction and exemption for six individual tax deduction items. quota or add new deduction items, etc. Although our expected annual tax reduction of about 200 billion is not large, and is only about 1/3 of the personal income tax reduction in 2019 compared to GDP, if we further take into account the additional cost of large-scale equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods The corresponding predicted scale of fiscal expenditures or revenue reductions, in fact, the total intensity of fiscal support for consumption and investment in advanced equipment is similar to the intensity of personal tax cuts in 2019. The resolution of real estate and local debt risks is accelerating, and attention is paid to the construction of affordable housing and new infrastructure. The orderly and steady resolution of real estate market risks is expected to remain the main tone. The supply side is expected to still emphasize guaranteed delivery, destocking and corresponding whitelist financing guarantees, while the demand side will further implement \"bottom-up\" policies to build affordable housing. The afterburner implementation may become the main highlight. The decline in land transfer fee income is expected to narrow to about 5%. It is expected that commercial housing sales area and real estate development investment will fall by approximately 5% and approximately 7% respectively year-on-year in 2024. The declines are both narrower than in 2023, but not enough to turn positive. Accelerate the implementation of water conservancy projects by issuing additional trillions of treasury bonds. \"Long-term special treasury bonds\" will partially replace special bonds to focus on new infrastructure, meet financing needs while easing debt repayment pressure, and promote the orderly resolution of local government debt risks. It is expected that the scale of new special bonds will be reduced to 3.3 trillion in 2024, and long-term special government bonds will be issued at 1 trillion, and fiscal support for infrastructure investment and local debt risk resolution will be increased simultaneously. Fiscal policy: The deficit rate is expected to be 3.6%, 3.5 trillion special bonds, and 1 trillion special government bonds. It is expected that general public budget revenue and expenditure will increase by about 2% and 7% respectively year-on-year in 2024. As the growth rate of fiscal revenue and expenditure has shown a pattern of revenue growth being slower than expenditure in consecutive years, the gap in revenue and expenditure in the general public budget is expected to further increase in 2024, and the corresponding deficit rate in the general public budget is expected to be around 3.6%, which is higher than the additional issuance rate. Trillion national debt in 2023, slightly lowered by 0.2 percentage points. The further decline in land transfer revenue means that the financial support of the general public budget from the government fund budget will continue to shrink. Only 3.5 trillion new special bonds plus an additional 1 trillion long-term special government bonds can provide effective support. Monetary policy: Reasonable and loose, with RRR cuts and mid-range interest rate cuts expected. Monetary policy proactively cooperates with fiscal policy, enhances the consistency of macroeconomic policies, implements sufficient long-term liquidity injection and guides the gradual and orderly decline of financing costs. This is the tone for the whole year of 2024. We maintain the forecast that a 50BP RRR cut will still be needed in 2024. The next time window for RRR cut is expected to be before the FOMC meeting in September; it is expected that slight interest rate cuts tilted towards 1YLPR and MLF interest rates will continue to be implemented to further reduce 5YLPR. The probability is lower. Risk warning: There is a risk that the policy to stabilize growth is less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('ae91a726-1e5a-5a58-8cc8-85a64f6c36b2'), 'sentimentScore': 0.2512871203944087, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'SO5EC8AQ2N0BGBGMKR1QGLS2NBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:36 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'SO5EC8AQ2N0BGBGMKR1QGLS2NBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('41ac1ec6-7df9-57bc-a9f1-8361c15a01cb'), 'title': 'March was volatile, but structural trends continued', 'author': 'Deng Lijun', 'orgName': '华金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000134', 'orgSName': '华金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-03', 'encodeUrl': 'q03mVseni82SDn2cAJAPZbiBrarv/JeiB6YpI2tMRPY=', 'researcher': '邓利军', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000253446'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=q03mVseni82SDn2cAJAPZbiBrarv/JeiB6YpI2tMRPY=', 'site': 'Huajin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403021625202659_1.pdf?1709462840000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403021625202659_1.pdf?1709462840000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'March was volatile, but structural trends continued', 'originalAuthor': '邓利军', 'originalContent': '投资要点历史上影响3月A股走势的核心因素是基本面、政策及外部事件、流动性。复盘自2010年以来历年3月A股市场的表现，可以看到：（1）14年中仅有5次3月上证综指上涨。（2）影响3月市场走势的因素：基本面>政策及外部事件>流动性。一是基本面尤其是地产销售和盈利增速的变化是影响3月走势的核心因素：3月出现下跌的9年中有6次地产销售增速回落、4次工业企业利润增速回落，而在3月上涨的5年中有4次地产销售增速或工业企业利润增速上行。二是政策及外部事件对3月市场走势也有明显影响：如2017、2018、2022和2023年3月美联储加息、2020年3月疫情爆发，上证综指均偏弱；2010年3月美联储继续QE、2015年和2016年3月央行降息降准、2019年3月中美贸易摩擦缓和，上证综指均上涨。三是流动性是影响3月市场走势的重要因素。四是估值和情绪的影响较小。比照复盘，今年3月A股震荡可能偏强。（1）基本面角度，地产销售可能仍偏弱，但盈利大概率处于上行趋势中。一是地产销售可能企稳但依然偏弱：首先，3月份是开工及销售旺季；其次，近期降低利率、放松限购等刺激地产的政策不断出台。二是经济修复和盈利回升趋势大概率延续：首先，随着万亿国债在一季度的落地、设备更新和以旧换新等政策的出台和实施等，3月份以后经济修复趋势大概率延续；其次，工业企业利润增速今年可能均处于上行趋势中，年报预告也显示A股盈利增速在去年二季度已见底。（2）政策和外部事件角度，3月份总体偏正面。一是政策预期持续偏强：两会即将来临，财政发力等政策可能进一步出台；类比2019年，偏积极的经济和资本市场政策导致A股在3月表现较强。二是中美关系3月份可能维持稳定甚至边际改善。（3）流动性可能维持宽松。一是海外流动性预期平稳，对国内宽松掣肘降低。二是3月国内流动性可能进一步宽松。反弹进入中后期，3月偏震荡，结构性行情延续。（1）分子端：3月延续弱修复。2月PMI依然偏弱，但随着开工旺季、信贷高峰以及万亿国债项目实施和设备更新、以旧换新等政策的落实，经济和盈利在3月份大概率延续修复趋势。（2）流动性：3月海外流动性预期平稳，国内维持宽松；比照历次反弹，融资、外资和新发基金的修复仍有较大空间。（3）风险偏好：比照历次反弹，情绪指标的修复仍有空间；中美关系回暖叠加两会召开、政策预期上升，风险偏好在3月可能继续改善。3月继续均衡配置低估值价值和科技成长。（1）3月行情中政策导向和高景气的行业占优，当前指向低估值价值和科技成长。（2）反弹中后期补涨角度：首先，复盘来看，反弹中后期补涨逻辑占优；其次，当前成长中的半导体、计算机设备、电新、医药，消费和周期中的汽车、家电、食品饮料、化工等，低估值蓝筹中的大金融、交运等估值和换手率都相对偏低。（3）3月建议继续均衡配置：一是政策和产业趋势向上的通信（算力、卫星互联网等）、电子（半导体、消费电子）、计算机（数据要素、鸿蒙）、传媒（AI在游戏、教育等的应用）；二是超跌的新能源（电池、光伏）、医药（中药、药店）、消费（汽车、家电、白酒）、军工；三是央国企相关的建筑、石化、银行、非银等。风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用，政策超预期变化，经济修复不及预期。', 'content': \"Investment Points Historically, the core factors that affect the trend of A-shares in March are fundamentals, policies, external events, and liquidity. Reviewing the performance of the A-share market in March since 2010, we can see that: (1) The Shanghai Composite Index rose only five times in March in 14 years. (2) Factors affecting market trends in March: Fundamentals > Policies and external events > Liquidity. First, fundamentals, especially changes in real estate sales and profit growth, are the core factors affecting the trend in March: in the 9 years of March declines, real estate sales growth has fallen back 6 times, and industrial enterprise profit growth has fallen 4 times, while In the five years since March, there have been four times when real estate sales growth or industrial enterprise profit growth has increased. Second, policies and external events also have a significant impact on the market trend in March: for example, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in March 2017, 2018, 2022, and 2023, and the epidemic broke out in March 2020, the Shanghai Composite Index was weak; in March 2010, the Federal Reserve continued to QE, the central bank's interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts in 2015 and March 2016, and the easing of Sino-US trade frictions in March 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index all rose. Third, liquidity is an important factor affecting market trends in March. Fourth, the impact of valuation and sentiment is small. Based on the review, the A-share market may have been relatively volatile in March this year. (1) From a fundamental perspective, real estate sales may still be weak, but profits are likely to be on an upward trend. First, real estate sales may stabilize but remain weak: first, March is the peak season for construction and sales; second, policies to stimulate real estate such as lowering interest rates and easing purchase restrictions have recently been introduced. Second, the trend of economic recovery and profit recovery is likely to continue: First, with the release of trillions of national debt in the first quarter, the introduction and implementation of policies such as equipment upgrades and trade-in, etc., the economic recovery trend is likely to continue after March; secondly, the industrial Corporate profit growth is likely to be on an upward trend this year, and the annual report forecast also shows that A-share profit growth bottomed out in the second quarter of last year. (2) From the perspective of policies and external events, March was generally positive. First, policy expectations continue to be strong: the two sessions are approaching, and fiscal policies and other policies may be further introduced; analogously to 2019, more positive economic and capital market policies led to a strong performance of A shares in March. Second, Sino-US relations may remain stable or even improve marginally in March. (3) Liquidity may remain loose. First, overseas liquidity is expected to be stable, reducing constraints on domestic easing. Second, domestic liquidity may be further relaxed in March. The rebound has entered the mid-to-late period, with volatility in March and the structural market continuing. (1) Molecular side: Weak repair continued in March. PMI is still weak in February, but with the peak construction season, credit peak, implementation of trillion-dollar national debt projects, equipment updates, trade-in and other policies, there is a high probability that the economy and profits will continue to recover in March. (2) Liquidity: Overseas liquidity is expected to be stable in March, while domestic liquidity will remain loose; compared with previous rebounds, there is still much room for the recovery of financing, foreign capital and new funds. (3) Risk appetite: Compared with previous rebounds, there is still room for improvement in sentiment indicators; with the warming of Sino-US relations coupled with the convening of the two sessions and rising policy expectations, risk appetite may continue to improve in March. In March, we continued to balance allocation of low valuation value and technology growth. (1) The market in March was dominated by policy-oriented and prosperous industries, and is currently pointing to low valuations and technological growth. (2) Angle of compensatory growth in the middle and late stages of the rebound: First, based on review, the logic of compensatory growth in the mid-to-late rebound period is dominant; secondly, the current growth of semiconductors, computer equipment, electronics, medicine, consumption and cyclical automobiles and home appliances , food and beverage, chemical industry, etc. Among the low-valued blue chips, the valuation and turnover rate of large finance, transportation, etc. are relatively low. (3) In March, it is recommended to continue a balanced allocation: First, communications (computing power, satellite Internet, etc.), electronics (semiconductors, consumer electronics), computers (data elements, Hongmeng), media (AI in games, etc.) with upward policy and industrial trends applications in education, etc.); the second is oversold new energy (batteries, photovoltaics), medicine (traditional Chinese medicine, pharmacies), consumption (automobiles, home appliances, liquor), and military industry; the third is construction, petrochemicals, banks, and non-profit industries related to central state-owned enterprises. Silver etc. Risk warning: Historical experience may not be applicable in the future, policies may change unexpectedly, and economic recovery may not be as good as expected.\", 'authorid': UUID('eeebd4e7-3e6b-5b25-bba6-a2dddac77a24'), 'sentimentScore': 0.024198636412620544, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'EUIOSM3EG38U589LKU9VGGT5NJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:39 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'EUIOSM3EG38U589LKU9VGGT5NJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2f519262-ddb0-5c97-b1cd-462fbd1bdb51'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: The economy is generally stable, TMT leads the market', 'author': 'Hu Shaohua, Liu Sijia', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-03', 'encodeUrl': 'q03mVseni82SDn2cAJAPZfob3n6Ao3FnUdQtsDTZ8GE=', 'researcher': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249934', '11000257478'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=q03mVseni82SDn2cAJAPZfob3n6Ao3FnUdQtsDTZ8GE=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403021625198913_1.pdf?1709461365000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403021625198913_1.pdf?1709461365000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: The economy is generally stable, TMT leads the market', 'originalAuthor': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'originalContent': '投资要点核心观点：2月制造业PMI环比略微回落0.1个百分点，与历年同期相比，今年2月PMI弱于季节性，显示当前经济恢复力度偏弱。制造业生产活动季节性放缓，需求端保持稳定。春节假期带动服务业活动明显升温，节后电影消费、商场和景区客流出现季节性回落。当前地产需求仍偏疲弱，但政策端较积极，5年期以上LPR超预期下调25BP，多地明确提出保交楼和城中村改造目标，地产有望逐步企稳。中央财经委第四次会议部署大规模设备更新和消费品换新，有望促进投资和消费，提高技术、节能减排或是设备更新重要方向，新能源汽车增长空间仍大。市场方面，TMT领涨本轮春节行情；电力设备、计算机、美容护理等板块上轮调整幅度居前，关注超跌反弹走势。股市“新政”继续推进，长期趋势向好。2月制造业PMI略微回落，非制造业分化，服务业热度高，建筑业回落。与历年同期相比今年2月制造业PMI弱于季节性，显示当前经济恢复力度偏弱。春节消费需求释放充分，实物零售、住宿餐饮、交通运输等行业活跃度提升；建筑业活动受春节假期、雨雪天气等因素影响有所放缓，楼市需求偏弱，春节过后企业复工和天气转暖，建筑业活动有望提速。春节过后消费热度回落，较往年同期略偏弱。2024年春节档总票房、总观影人次均创历史新高，节后观影热度明显回落。2月18日（初九）至2月29日，全国观影总人次约为春节假期的40%，与2019、2021年农历同期的75%、60%相比，电影消费恢复偏弱，但也有今年基数偏高的因素影响。出行方面，2月18日至2月28日，全国重点旅游景区平均客流较去年同期下降13.1%，全国重点购物中心平均客流较去年同期下降9.6%。节后复工复产方面，春节过后上中下游开工率普遍回升，其中下游开工率恢复明显。上游PTA开工率、中游纯碱开工率环比均升0.7个百分点；下游江浙织机开工率环比升19.7个百分点，半钢胎开工率环比升23.9个百分点，全钢胎开工率环比升62.4个百分点。地方两会对2024年房地产工作部署聚焦支持刚性和改善性需求、保交楼、“三大工程”。提高技术、节能减排可能是设备更新的重要方向。2月23日，中央财经委员会第四次会议强调，实行大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新。2023年中央经济工作会议提到，要以提高技术、能耗、排放等标准为牵引，推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新。因此，提高技术水平、节能减排可能是本轮大规模设备更新的重点方向。央行专项再贷款规模有望继续攀升。2022年9月，央行设立设备更新改造专项再贷款，贷款额度2000亿元以上。按照“贷款期限1年，可展期2次，每次展期1年”的规定，2022年发放的设备更新贷款最晚将于2025年到期。新一轮大规模设备更新或将覆盖更多领域，专项再贷款规模有望随之继续攀升。新能源汽车增长空间仍大。中央财经委员会第四次会议提到“鼓励汽车、家电等传统消费品以旧换新”。2024年1月，国内新能源汽车零售渗透率为32.8%，较去年同期提升7.2个百分点。但从保有量来看，截至2023年12月，国内新能源汽车保有量仅占汽车总量的6.1%因此未来新能源汽车销售在以旧换新浪潮中仍有较大提升空间。计算机、传媒、通信领涨本轮春节行情。上证指数于2月5日触及阶段性低点，至3月1日，上证指数累计上涨近12%。其中，计算机、传媒、通信、电子涨幅居前，期间累计涨幅分别为34.4%、28.4%、28.1%、24.8%。电力设备、计算机、美容护理、社会服务、传媒上轮调整幅度较大，关注超跌反弹走势。2023年5月8日至2024年2月5日，上证指数累计回落20.4%。其中，电力设备、计算机、美容护理、社会服务、传媒跌幅居前，可关注前期调整幅度较大板块的超跌反弹走势。风险提示：地缘政治风险；政策落地不及预期的风险；海外金融事件风险。', 'content': 'Investment Key Points Core Viewpoint: The manufacturing PMI in February fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. Compared with the same period in previous years, the PMI in February this year was weaker than seasonal, indicating that the current economic recovery is weak. Manufacturing production activities have slowed down seasonally, and the demand side has remained stable. The Spring Festival holiday has led to a significant increase in service industry activities. After the holiday, movie consumption and passenger flow in shopping malls and scenic spots have experienced seasonal declines. The current demand for real estate is still weak, but the policy side is more positive. The LPR for 5 years and above has been lowered by 25BP more than expected. Many places have clearly stated the goals of guaranteed housing and urban village renovation. Real estate is expected to gradually stabilize. The fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission deployed large-scale equipment updates and consumer product replacements, which are expected to promote investment and consumption, improve technology, energy conservation and emission reduction, or important directions for equipment updates. New energy vehicles still have huge room for growth. In terms of the market, TMT led the rise in the current Spring Festival market; power equipment, computers, beauty care and other sectors had the largest adjustment in the last round, so attention should be paid to the oversold rebound trend. The \"New Deal\" for the stock market continues to advance, and the long-term trend is improving. The manufacturing PMI fell slightly in February, the non-manufacturing industry diverged, the service industry was hot, and the construction industry fell back. Compared with the same period in previous years, the manufacturing PMI in February this year was weaker than seasonality, indicating that the current economic recovery is weak. Consumer demand during the Spring Festival is fully released, and the activity of physical retail, accommodation and catering, transportation and other industries increases; construction industry activities have slowed down due to the Spring Festival holiday, rain and snow weather and other factors, and the demand in the property market is weak. After the Spring Festival, companies resume work and the weather changes. Warmth, construction industry activity is expected to accelerate. After the Spring Festival, consumption enthusiasm fell back and was slightly weaker than the same period in previous years. The total box office and total number of moviegoers during the 2024 Spring Festival hit record highs, and the popularity of moviegoing dropped significantly after the holiday. From February 18 (the ninth day of the Lunar New Year) to February 29, the total number of moviegoers nationwide was about 40% of the Spring Festival holiday. Compared with 75% and 60% of the same period in the lunar calendar in 2019 and 2021, the recovery of movie consumption was weak, but There are also factors affecting the high base this year. In terms of travel, from February 18 to February 28, the average passenger flow in key tourist attractions across the country dropped by 13.1% compared with the same period last year, and the average passenger flow in key shopping malls across the country dropped by 9.6% compared with the same period last year. In terms of resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, the operating rates of upstream, midstream and downstream industries generally rebounded after the Spring Festival, among which the operating rates of downstream industries recovered significantly. The operating rate of upstream PTA and midstream soda ash both increased by 0.7 percentage points month-on-month; the operating rate of downstream looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 19.7 percentage points month-on-month, the operating rate of semi-steel tires increased by 23.9 percentage points month-on-month, and the operating rate of all-steel tires increased by 62.4 percentage points month-on-month. The local two sessions will focus on real estate work deployment in 2024 to support rigid and improved demand, guaranteed delivery of buildings, and \"three major projects.\" Improving technology, saving energy and reducing emissions may be important directions for equipment renewal. On February 23, the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the implementation of large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones. The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference mentioned that it is necessary to promote large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, driven by improving technology, energy consumption, emission and other standards. Therefore, improving technology, saving energy and reducing emissions may be the focus of this round of large-scale equipment updates. The scale of special re-lending by the central bank is expected to continue to rise. In September 2022, the central bank set up a special re-loan for equipment renovation, with a loan limit of more than 200 billion yuan. According to the regulations of \"the loan period is 1 year and can be extended twice, each extension is 1 year\", the equipment renewal loan issued in 2022 will expire in 2025 at the latest. A new round of large-scale equipment updates may cover more areas, and the scale of special refinancing is expected to continue to rise. There is still a lot of room for growth in new energy vehicles. The fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission mentioned \"encouraging traditional consumer goods such as cars and home appliances to trade in old ones for new ones.\" In January 2024, the retail penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles was 32.8%, an increase of 7.2 percentage points from the same period last year. However, from the perspective of ownership, as of December 2023, domestic new energy vehicle ownership only accounts for 6.1% of the total number of vehicles. Therefore, there is still much room for improvement in future new energy vehicle sales during the trade-in wave. Computers, media, and communications led the current Spring Festival market. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a periodic low on February 5. By March 1, the Shanghai Composite Index had risen by nearly 12%. Among them, computers, media, communications, and electronics were the top gainers, with cumulative increases during the period being 34.4%, 28.4%, 28.1%, and 24.8% respectively. Electrical equipment, computers, beauty care, social services, and media have experienced relatively large adjustments in the last round. Pay attention to the oversold rebound trend. From May 8, 2023 to February 5, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by a cumulative 20.4%. Among them, electrical equipment, computers, beauty care, social services, and media were among the top decliners. You can pay attention to the oversold rebound trend of sectors with larger adjustments in the early stage. Risk warning: geopolitical risks; risks of policy implementation failing to meet expectations; risks of overseas financial events.', 'authorid': UUID('f33028d3-8791-5b14-80ca-a862e2ba251a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9468464702367783, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'M7913RT4VU1VGOMEGKIRM9NPJBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:42 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'M7913RT4VU1VGOMEGKIRM9NPJBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('bf651ac5-001b-5ff1-b1ed-53cc544fb62b'), 'title': 'Manufacturing sector broadly stable', 'author': 'Xie Yunliang, Xiao Zhangyu', 'orgName': '信达证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80092742', 'orgSName': '信达证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-02', 'encodeUrl': 'q03mVseni82SDn2cAJAPZedMtGooX8/9TKSRsW9fak0=', 'researcher': '解运亮,肖张羽', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000243225', '11000369835'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=q03mVseni82SDn2cAJAPZedMtGooX8/9TKSRsW9fak0=', 'site': 'Cinda Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '信达证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403021625199874_1.pdf?1709462517000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403021625199874_1.pdf?1709462517000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Manufacturing sector broadly stable', 'originalAuthor': '解运亮,肖张羽', 'originalContent': '摘要：制造业部门大致企稳。在前期报告《经济可能是“W型”修复》中，我们提出2023年是疫后正常化的第一年，全年经济呈现类似于“W”的形态。2024年1月金融数据“开门红”，社融、信贷数据均超出市场预期，且结构较好，M1增速也出现明显回升，反映出在货币政策的呵护下，经济内生动能有所恢复。2月PMI虽然仍在荣枯线之下，但边际下降幅度低于往年同期。同日公布的财新PMI为50.9，较上月上升0.1个百分点，连续四个月位于扩张区间，表明制造业景气度持续提升。稳经济政策陆续出台，企业预期出现回稳迹象。2月以来货币政策率先发力，五年期LPR调降25bp，有利于降低企业融资成本，提振投资意愿，也能够对稳定房地产预期起到积极的作用。2月中央财经委员会第四次会议提出，鼓励引导新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新。该政策有望为制造业带来增量需求。2月份制造业生产经营活动预期指数为54.2%，较上月上升0.2个百分点，我们认为主要来源于政策的带动。需要警惕的依然是房地产的下行压力。2024年开年之后，新房销售的高频数据仍处于历史低位，居民购房意愿仍待改善。房地产服务的PMI商务活动指数继续处在收缩区间。房地产的下行压力可能会制约经济进一步修复的高度。服务业需求季节性释放，基建动能上升。从行业看，受春节假日等因素带动，与节日出行和消费密切相关的行业生产经营较为活跃，其中零售、铁路运输、道路运输、餐饮、生态保护及公共设施管理等行业商务活动指数较高。2月建筑业处于施工淡季，建筑业活动较上月有所放缓。值得关注的是，反映基础建设投资需求的土木工程建筑业供需呈现向好迹象。土木工程建筑业的商务活动指数和新订单指数较上月均有不同程度上升，且均升至60%以上，意味着基础建设投资需求有持续释放动能。风险因素：信贷政策收紧；海外衰退幅度超预期。', 'content': 'Summary: The manufacturing sector has generally stabilized. In our previous report, \"The Economy May Have a \"W-Shaped\" Recovery,\" we proposed that 2023 will be the first year of post-epidemic normalization, and that the economy will show a shape similar to a \"W\" throughout the year. Financial data in January 2024 had a \"good start\". Social financing and credit data exceeded market expectations, and the structure was good. M1 growth also rebounded significantly, reflecting that under the protection of monetary policy, the endogenous energy of the economy has recovered. Although the PMI in February was still below the boom-bust line, the marginal decline was lower than the same period in previous years. The Caixin PMI released on the same day was 50.9, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. It has been in the expansion range for four consecutive months, indicating that the prosperity of the manufacturing industry continues to improve. Policies to stabilize the economy have been introduced one after another, and companies are expected to show signs of stabilization. Monetary policy has taken the lead since February, with the five-year LPR lowered by 25bp, which will help reduce corporate financing costs, boost investment willingness, and also play a positive role in stabilizing real estate expectations. The fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in February proposed to encourage and guide a new round of large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-in of consumer goods. The policy is expected to bring incremental demand to the manufacturing industry. The expected index of manufacturing production and operating activities in February was 54.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. We believe it is mainly driven by policies. What needs to be vigilant is still the downward pressure on real estate. After the start of 2024, high-frequency data on new home sales are still at historically low levels, and residents\\' willingness to buy homes still needs to be improved. The real estate services PMI business activity index continues to be in contraction territory. Downward pressure on real estate may limit the extent of further economic recovery. The demand in the service industry is released seasonally, and the momentum of infrastructure construction is rising. From an industry perspective, driven by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, industries closely related to holiday travel and consumption are more active in production and operations. Among them, industries such as retail, railway transportation, road transportation, catering, ecological protection and public facilities management have higher business activity indexes. The construction industry was in the off-season in February, and construction industry activities slowed down compared with the previous month. It is worth noting that the supply and demand of the civil engineering construction industry, which reflects the demand for infrastructure investment, is showing signs of improvement. The business activity index and new order index of the civil engineering construction industry increased to varying degrees from the previous month, and both rose to above 60%, which means that infrastructure investment demand has continued to release momentum. Risk factors: Tightening of credit policies; overseas recession is deeper than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('6b24f994-d652-5708-b02b-eaafb1220749'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9152987040579319, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OP154U5MPPO96FSG98GQ9JAVM3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:44 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OP154U5MPPO96FSG98GQ9JAVM3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2c9bb476-0339-5d4f-a8ff-5aa2745695ef'), 'title': 'Macroequilibrium portfolio allocation and position adjustment: The return of Beta', 'author': 'Wang Xiao , Tang Li', 'orgName': '国泰期货', 'orgCode': '80101065', 'orgSName': '国泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQFUfrk3IAngXbRwIF5XKyLg=', 'researcher': '王笑,唐立', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259151', '11000417832'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQFUfrk3IAngXbRwIF5XKyLg=', 'site': 'Cathay Futures', 'originalSite': '国泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624985230_1.pdf?1709326226000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624985230_1.pdf?1709326226000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroequilibrium portfolio allocation and position adjustment: The return of Beta', 'originalAuthor': '王笑,唐立', 'originalContent': '报告导读：摘要：我们运用国内的宏、中、微观尺度下的模型以及对于海外经济环境的判断，构建了涵盖股、债、商品以及现金的大类资产配置持仓。目标为构建不同宏观环境下的均衡配置，重视Beta的获取与配置的便利性。该持仓表现用于宏观配置的观点映射、资产表现的持续跟踪以及研究方法的反复论证。权益类资产中涵盖了A股、H股以及美股，债券类中仅包含中美利率债，商品则选用CTA基准表现。由于该组合仅用于研究追踪，因此现金部分不计算收益率且未考虑交易成本。潜在优化方式：根据基差规律进行资产配置的期货替代+尾部风险的期权保护策略大类资产组合2月初：25%沪深300ETF+25%恒生指数ETF+25%CTAbenchmark+25%现金2月14日调仓：加仓美债长债ETF TLT，同时现金仓位降为初始组合的5%。前期A+H市场呈现超调，同时月初中债、美债性价比均不够高，商品配置中频CTA为了分散收益来源，且看好年中中美补库共振作为提前布局。月中10Y美债利率触达4.3%一带后美债长债配置价值凸显，因此加仓偏长久期的美债ETF TLT，通过规避美债短债来增强对于加息不确定性的应对，同时保留长端的观点。中债长债拥挤度较高，性价比偏低，若深度回调，可择机配置。3月展望：当前A+H权益端的反弹尽管是技术性的，但暂时难以被证伪，若两会结束后，市场仍然坚挺，则中期思路不变。美债长债端在新增核心PCE等数据公布后表现上佳，静待新非农数据是否边际转弱印证美国需求仍有边际下行时空的判断，月末保留TLT持仓。CTA商品端仍有不确定性，当前对于中美补库的中性预测在年中。外需边际下行是否会带来商品的调整，同时内部需求的斜率仍受两会等因素影响，内外因素叠加下商品需求端若暂时无法形成合力，则考虑减仓CTA策略规避风险。前期配置CTA是为了在组合上分散收益来源，从库存周期与CTA收益的分析来看，中美补库共振将是今年组合中CTA子配置最重要的潜在收益。近期关键事件：两会，美国非农数据公布风险提示：政策支持不及预期、2月非农超预期强劲', 'content': \"Report introduction: Abstract: We use domestic macro-, medium-, and micro-scale models and judgments on overseas economic environments to construct large-scale asset allocation positions covering stocks, bonds, commodities, and cash. The goal is to build a balanced configuration under different macro-environments, paying attention to the convenience of Beta acquisition and configuration. This position performance is used for perspective mapping of macro allocations, continuous tracking of asset performance, and repeated demonstration of research methods. Equity assets include A-shares, H-shares and US stocks, bonds only include Sino-US interest rate bonds, and CTA benchmark performance is used for commodities. Since this portfolio is used for research tracking only, the cash component does not calculate the yield and does not take transaction costs into account. Potential optimization methods: Futures substitution for asset allocation based on the law of basis difference + option protection strategy for tail risk Major asset portfolios Early February: 25% CSI 300 ETF + 25% Hang Seng Index ETF + 25% CTAbenchmark + 25% cash February 14 Daily position adjustment: increase the position of U.S. Treasury Long-Term Bond ETF TLT, while reducing the cash position to 5% of the initial portfolio. The A+H market showed an overshoot in the early stage. At the same time, the price/performance ratio of China Bonds and U.S. Bonds at the beginning of the month was not high enough. The commodity allocation was mid-frequency CTA in order to diversify the sources of income, and it was optimistic about the replenishment resonance between China and the United States in the middle of the year as an advance layout. After the 10Y U.S. Treasury interest rate hit 4.3% in the middle of the month, the value of long-term U.S. bond allocation became more prominent. Therefore, the long-term U.S. bond ETF TLT increased its position by avoiding short-term U.S. bonds to enhance the response to the uncertainty of interest rate hikes. At the same time, Keep the long-end view. ChinaBond long-term bonds are highly crowded and have low cost performance. If there is a deep correction, you can choose the opportunity to allocate them. Outlook for March: Although the current rebound on the equity side of A+H is technical, it is difficult to be falsified for the time being. If the market is still strong after the two sessions, the mid-term thinking will remain unchanged. The long-term U.S. debt side performed well after the release of new core PCE and other data. We are waiting to see whether the new non-agricultural data weakens at the margin and confirms that there is still time and space for a marginal decline in U.S. demand. We will retain our TLT position at the end of the month. There is still uncertainty on the CTA commodity side, and the current neutral forecast for Sino-US replenishment is mid-year. Will the marginal decline in external demand bring about adjustments to commodities? At the same time, the slope of internal demand is still affected by factors such as the two sessions. If the demand side of commodities cannot temporarily form a synergy due to the superposition of internal and external factors, the CTA strategy of reducing positions will be considered to avoid risks. The purpose of allocating CTA in the early stage is to diversify the sources of income in the portfolio. From the analysis of inventory cycle and CTA income, the resonance of Sino-US replenishment will be the most important potential income of CTA sub-allocation in this year's portfolio. Recent key events: Two sessions, U.S. non-farm data release risk warning: policy support is less than expected, February non-farm payrolls are stronger than expected\", 'authorid': UUID('854ea9ad-1f3f-5788-a2a8-feda65df9731'), 'sentimentScore': 0.056497847661376, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'NBRKPP94U2CHC8NTP3IHCBLHCRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:47 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'NBRKPP94U2CHC8NTP3IHCBLHCRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('47cacb1e-74dd-5b73-aa8a-9c424c60bb47'), 'title': 'Welcome the light of capital market system', 'author': 'Hu Shaohua, Liu Sijia', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQO+YTi73dLbZCETZoxqtj4E=', 'researcher': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249934', '11000257478'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQO+YTi73dLbZCETZoxqtj4E=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624860395_1.pdf?1709325397000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624860395_1.pdf?1709325397000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Welcome the light of capital market system', 'originalAuthor': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'originalContent': '美债收益率、北向资金在一定时期与A股走势有一致性10年期美债收益率于2023年10月触达高点（约5%），此后持续回落，12月降至3.8%附近，但同期上证指数仍整体下行。2022年5月以来，北向资金净流入规模与上证指数走势有一定一致性。经济增速与股市走势一致性较好2022年以来名义GDP增速与上证指数、万得全A指数走势相关性强，经济基本面定价可能占主导。', 'content': 'U.S. bond yields and northbound funds are consistent with the trend of A-shares in a certain period. The 10-year U.S. bond yield reached a high (about 5%) in October 2023, and has continued to fall since then, falling to around 3.8% in December. , but the Shanghai Composite Index still fell overall during the same period. Since May 2022, the scale of net northbound capital inflows has been consistent with the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index. The economic growth rate is well consistent with the stock market trend. Since 2022, the nominal GDP growth rate has a strong correlation with the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All-A Index, and economic fundamentals may dominate pricing.', 'authorid': UUID('f33028d3-8791-5b14-80ca-a862e2ba251a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9188026022166014, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '0T7INM91OVIVGCEFC8G8UV7MMJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:50 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '0T7INM91OVIVGCEFC8G8UV7MMJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ca8b3560-5e59-568d-a943-bb0483902d18'), 'title': 'Domestic Observation: PMI-PMI in February 2024 was weaker than seasonal, and holidays promoted the service industry to heat up', 'author': 'Liu Sijia, Hu Shaohua', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQAz7oQgvcKcJ7eCdNIhK8zs=', 'researcher': '刘思佳,胡少华', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257478', '11000249934'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQAz7oQgvcKcJ7eCdNIhK8zs=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624858144_1.pdf?1709325290000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624858144_1.pdf?1709325290000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Domestic Observation: PMI-PMI in February 2024 was weaker than seasonal, and holidays promoted the service industry to heat up', 'originalAuthor': '刘思佳,胡少华', 'originalContent': '投资要点事件：3月1日，国家统计局公布2月官方PMI数据。2月，制造业PMI为49.1%，前值49.2%；非制造业PMI为51.4%，前值50.7%。核心观点：2月制造业PMI稳中略微回落，与历年同期相比弱于季节性。制造业生产端受春节假期影响较为明显，生产活动有所放缓，但节后企业复工有望带动生产指数较快回升。需求端整体稳定，其中外需表现不佳，内需中新动能表现较好，高技术制造业和消费品制造业新订单指数环比均上升超1个百分点。非制造业方面，春节消费需求释放充分，实物零售、住宿餐饮、交通运输、文体娱乐等行业活跃度提升；建筑业活动受春节假期、雨雪天气等因素影响有所放缓，楼市需求偏弱，春节过后企业复工和天气转暖，建筑业活动有望提速。总体看，当前经济运行稳定，但需求不足问题仍待缓解。一方面，中央财经委第四次会议部署大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，或将有力促进投资和消费；另一方面，当前实际利率较高，降息仍有空间。制造业PMI稳中略有回落。2月，制造业PMI环比小幅回落0.1个百分点至49.1%。与历史同期相比，今年2月制造业PMI低于近10年同期均值50.3%（剔除2020年2月），显示当前经济恢复力度偏弱。需求端持稳，供给受春节假期影响有所波动。2月生产和新订单指数分别为49.8%、49%，生产指数环比下降1.5个百分点，新订单指数环比持平，新出口订单指数环比下降0.9个百分点。从需求端来看，在外需有所回落的情况下市场需求总体持稳。结构上，高技术制造业和消费品制造业需求表现较好，二者新订单指数环比分别上升1.1个、2个百分点至51.3%、52.3%。从生产端来看，制造业生产活动受春节假期员工离岗影响较为明显，生产指数近9个月来首次降至收缩区间，但生产活动收缩可能是短期现象，符合春节期间生产指数回落的一般规律，节后企业复工有望带动3月生产指数较快回升。原材料价格相对稳定，出厂价格回暖。2月，原材料购进价格指数环比下降0.3个百分点至50.1%，近两个月原材料价格保持相对稳定。从出厂价格来看，内需持稳对制造业产品价格有所支撑，出厂价格指数环比上升1.1个百分点至48.1%。行业上看，重点行业产品出厂价格稳中有升。其中，基础原材料、高技术制造业的出厂价格指数均较1月上升2个百分点左右，消费品制造业出厂价格指数较1月上升近1个百分点。大中型企业运行稳定，小型企业需求仍待改善。2月，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为50.4%、49.1%、46.4%。其中，大型企业PMI与上月持平，中型企业PMI环比上升0.2个百分点，小型企业PMI环比下降0.8个百分点。供给方面，受春节假期影响，各规模企业生产指数均出��回落。需求方面，中型企业市场需求改善幅度较大，小型企业市场需求收缩明显。春节假期消费带动服务业活动升温。2月，服务业商务活动指数为51%，环比上升0.9个百分点。从行业看，2月实物消费、吃住消费、景区旅游、交通运输等多个层面消费活跃度高。统计局数据显示，零售餐饮业、住宿业、景区服务业、航空运输业等商务活动指数环比均有不同程度上升。整体上，春节假期对消费的拉动作用较强，服务业景气水平回暖。建筑业进入施工淡季，活跃度回落。2月，受春节假期、冬季低温雨雪天气等因素影响，建筑业进入施工淡季，活跃度有所回落，建筑业商务活动指数环比下降0.4个百分点至53.5%。从需求看，春节期间房地产市场表现低迷，但2月建筑业新订单指数环比上升0.6个百分点至47.3%，可能与基建投资需求支撑有关。2月土木工程建筑业新订单指数升至60%以上高景气区间。往后看，春节过后伴随复工复产以及气温逐步回升，建筑业相关活动有望提速。风险提示：海外局势变化超预期；政策落地不及预期。', 'content': \"Key investment events: On March 1, the National Bureau of Statistics released official PMI data for February. In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, the previous value was 49.2%; the non-manufacturing PMI was 51.4%, the previous value was 50.7%. Core view: The manufacturing PMI in February was stable and fell slightly, which was weaker than the seasonality compared with the same period in previous years. The production side of the manufacturing industry has been significantly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and production activities have slowed down. However, the resumption of work after the holiday is expected to drive the production index to rebound quickly. The demand side is generally stable, with foreign demand performing poorly and new drivers of domestic demand performing better. The new order index for high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing both increased by more than 1 percentage point month-on-month. In terms of non-manufacturing industries, consumer demand during the Spring Festival was fully released, and the activity of physical retail, accommodation and catering, transportation, sports and entertainment industries increased; construction industry activities slowed down due to factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, rain and snow, and the property market demand was weak. , after the Spring Festival, companies resume work and the weather gets warmer, construction industry activities are expected to accelerate. Overall, the current economic performance is stable, but the problem of insufficient demand still needs to be alleviated. On the one hand, the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission deployed large-scale equipment updates and the trade-in of consumer goods, which may effectively promote investment and consumption; on the other hand, the current real interest rates are relatively high, and there is still room for interest rate cuts. The manufacturing PMI was stable and fell slightly. In February, the manufacturing PMI fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month to 49.1%. Compared with the same period in history, the manufacturing PMI in February this year was 50.3% lower than the average for the same period in the past 10 years (excluding February 2020), indicating that the current economic recovery is weak. The demand side remains stable, while supply fluctuates due to the Spring Festival holiday. The production and new order indexes in February were 49.8% and 49% respectively. The production index fell by 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, the new orders index remained unchanged month-on-month, and the new export orders index fell by 0.9 percentage points month-on-month. From the demand side, market demand is generally stable despite a decline in external demand. Structurally, demand in high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing performed better, with their new order indexes rising 1.1 and 2 percentage points month-on-month to 51.3% and 52.3% respectively. From a production perspective, manufacturing production activities were significantly affected by employees leaving their jobs during the Spring Festival holiday. The production index dropped to the contraction range for the first time in the past nine months. However, the contraction of production activities may be a short-term phenomenon, which is in line with the general decline in the production index during the Spring Festival. According to the law, the resumption of work by enterprises after the holiday is expected to drive the production index to rebound quickly in March. Raw material prices are relatively stable and ex-factory prices are picking up. In February, the raw material purchase price index fell by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 50.1%. Raw material prices have remained relatively stable in the past two months. From the perspective of ex-factory prices, stable domestic demand has supported the prices of manufacturing products, with the ex-factory price index rising by 1.1 percentage points month-on-month to 48.1%. From an industry perspective, ex-factory prices of products in key industries have increased steadily. Among them, the ex-factory price index of basic raw materials and high-tech manufacturing increased by about 2 percentage points from January, and the ex-factory price index of consumer goods manufacturing increased by nearly 1 percentage point from January. Large and medium-sized enterprises are operating stably, while demand from small enterprises still needs to be improved. In February, the PMIs of large, medium and small enterprises were 50.4%, 49.1% and 46.4% respectively. Among them, the PMI of large enterprises was unchanged from the previous month, the PMI of medium-sized enterprises increased by 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, and the PMI of small enterprises fell by 0.8 percentage points month-on-month. On the supply side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the production index of enterprises of all sizes fell. In terms of demand, the market demand of medium-sized enterprises has improved significantly, while the market demand of small enterprises has shrunk significantly. Consumption during the Spring Festival holiday has driven up activity in the service industry. In February, the business activity index of the service industry was 51%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. From an industry perspective, consumption activity in physical goods consumption, food and accommodation consumption, scenic spot tourism, transportation and other aspects was high in February. Data from the Bureau of Statistics show that business activity indices such as the retail catering industry, accommodation industry, scenic spot service industry, and air transportation industry all increased to varying degrees month-on-month. Overall, the Spring Festival holiday has a strong driving effect on consumption, and the service industry's boom level is picking up. The construction industry has entered the off-season, and activity has dropped. In February, affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday and low-temperature rain and snow in winter, the construction industry entered the off-season for construction, and activity dropped. The construction industry business activity index fell by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month to 53.5%. From the perspective of demand, the real estate market performed sluggishly during the Spring Festival, but the new orders index for the construction industry in February increased by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month to 47.3%, which may be related to the support of infrastructure investment demand. In February, the new orders index for the civil engineering and construction industry rose to a high-prosperity range of over 60%. Looking forward, with the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival and the gradual recovery of temperatures, construction industry-related activities are expected to accelerate. Risk warning: Overseas situations have changed beyond expectations; policy implementation has fallen short of expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('2bb8c3e6-3f18-54fc-986c-cc6e63caf435'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9620427889749408, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'EHJ0J6UU9M0IG21MILK3RRDGLFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:53 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'EHJ0J6UU9M0IG21MILK3RRDGLFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('133ea95d-0ffa-5a17-aba8-7492eb926695'), 'title': 'ESG Monthly Report (February 2024): Sustainable development disclosure of listed companies is included in supervision, and the standardization of ESG reporting is expected to be further improved', 'author': 'Xie Xuecheng, Xiao Zhimin, Ma Zongming', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQC0bvLIZeFKEP1UgCYBWFts=', 'researcher': '解学成,肖志敏,马宗明', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172781', '11000447631', '11000447632'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQC0bvLIZeFKEP1UgCYBWFts=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624855371_1.pdf?1709319350000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624855371_1.pdf?1709319350000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'ESG Monthly Report (February 2024): Sustainable development disclosure of listed companies is included in supervision, and the standardization of ESG reporting is expected to be further improved', 'originalAuthor': '解学成,肖志敏,马宗明', 'originalContent': '核心观点：国内上市公司可持续发展披露与治理工作正式纳人监管范畴：2024年2月8日，在中国证监会的统一指导下，沪深北交易所发布了《上市公司持续监管指引—可持续发展报告（征求意见稿）》，这是三大交易所首次起草可持续发展信息披露指引。主要包括：自愿披露和强制披露相结合；建立可持续发展披露框架；明确环境、社会、公司治理披露内容。《指引》选择可持续发展报告作为主导披露逻辑和形式，能够有助于可持续相关信息披露形式的统一。《指引》兼顾国际接轨与本土适用、财务重要与影响重要、强制规范与自愿灵活。《指引》的发布将促进ESG信息披露，提升ESG报告的规范性，具有里程碑式的意义。国内ESG热点事件速递：国家政策方面，本月主要在双碳领域发布了一系列政策，包括构建废弃物循环利用体系、工业领域碳达峰碳中和标准体系建设等；金融市场方面，香港政府成功发售了多币种计价的数码绿色债券，中国农业发展银行发行了支持长江大保护的债券等；产业动态方面，三部门发布《关于加强绿色电力证书与节能降碳政策衔接大力促进非化石能源消费的通知》。国内ESG产品/市场追踪：截止本月月末，国内ESG债券类产品存量有3883只，规模近6万亿元，以绿色债券为主；泛ESG主题基金存量为307只，ESG主题基金为207只，其中纯ESG主题基金和ESG策略基金分别有92和117只；银行理财产品方面，纯ESG主题、环境保护主题、社会责任主题产品存量依次有285、97和82只；ESG指数类产品存续386只，其中股票类指数260只，债券类指数122只。ESG产品本月新发情况：ESG债券增发37只，新增规模为310.4亿元，ESG债券新增情况相比去年同期有很大幅度降低，尤其是绿色债券新发规模降低67.7%；ESG银行理财产品新增数量较上月有所下降，但比上年同期大幅提升，其中社会责任主题新增较为突出。全国碳市场：截至本月末，全国碳市场碳排放配额（CEA）累计成交量4.5亿吨，累计成交额253.2亿元。本月CEA成交量207.46万吨，相比上月下降31.2%，与去年同期（185.43万吨）相比有所增加。本月CEA成交均价为73.74元/吨，相较上月（72.61元/吨）有所上升。ESG因子市场表现：我们对全A按照ESG、E因子、S因子、G因子得分分别构造多空组合并计算组合收益率，发现相较基准（沪深300），本月ESG因子及E、G因子具有明显超额收益，ESG表现出一定超额收益。海外政策：（1）2024年2月3日，欧央行（ECB）发布2024-2025气候与自然计划，旨在总结此前的气候行动，并制定未来两年新的工作领域；（2）2024年2月5日，全球报告倡议组织（GRI）正式宣布发布采矿业可持续披露标准《GRI14：采矿业2024》；（3）2024年2月6日，欧盟委员会发表声明，建议到2040年，将欧盟的温室气体净排放量在1990年水平的基础上减少90%，展示了欧盟为实现气候中和采取更加严格措施的决心；（4）2024年2月20日，法国巴黎资产管理公司（BNPPAM）宣布推出其新的ESG主动型固定收益ETF系列，并推出首批的两只基金。风险提示：政策实施不及预期的风险。', 'content': 'Core point of view: The sustainable development disclosure and governance of domestic listed companies has been officially included in the scope of supervision: On February 8, 2024, under the unified guidance of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges issued the \"Guidelines for the Continuous Supervision of Listed Companies - May Sustainability Report (Draft for Comment)\", this is the first time that the three major exchanges have drafted sustainable development information disclosure guidelines. Mainly include: combining voluntary disclosure and mandatory disclosure; establishing a sustainable development disclosure framework; clarifying the content of environmental, social and corporate governance disclosures. The \"Guidelines\" select sustainability reporting as the dominant disclosure logic and form, which can contribute to the unification of sustainability-related information disclosure forms. The \"Guidelines\" take into account both international standards and local applicability, financial importance and impact importance, mandatory regulations and voluntary flexibility. The issuance of the \"Guidelines\" will promote ESG information disclosure and enhance the standardization of ESG reporting, which is of milestone significance. Domestic ESG hot event express: In terms of national policies, this month mainly released a series of policies in the dual-carbon field, including the construction of a waste recycling system and the construction of a carbon peak and carbon neutral standard system in the industrial sector; in terms of financial markets, the Hong Kong government Digital green bonds denominated in multiple currencies were successfully sold, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China issued bonds to support the protection of the Yangtze River. In terms of industry trends, the three departments issued the \"About Strengthening the Linkage of Green Power Certificates and Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Policies to vigorously promote non-fossil energy Consumption Notice\". Domestic ESG products/market tracking: As of the end of this month, there are 3,883 domestic ESG bond products in stock, with a scale of nearly 6 trillion yuan, mainly green bonds; the stock of pan-ESG theme funds is 307, and the number of ESG theme funds is 207 , among which there are 92 pure ESG theme funds and ESG strategy funds respectively; in terms of bank financial products, there are 285, 97 and 82 pure ESG theme, environmental protection theme and social responsibility theme products in stock; ESG index products exist at 386 There are 260 stock indexes and 122 bond indexes. New issuances of ESG products this month: 37 additional ESG bonds were issued, with an additional scale of 31.04 billion yuan. The number of new ESG bonds has dropped significantly compared with the same period last year, especially the scale of new green bond issuances dropped by 67.7%; ESG Bank The number of newly added financial products decreased compared with the previous month, but increased significantly compared with the same period last year, among which the new number of social responsibility themes was more prominent. National Carbon Market: As of the end of this month, the cumulative transaction volume of carbon emission allowances (CEA) in the national carbon market was 450 million tons, with a cumulative transaction volume of 25.32 billion yuan. This month\\'s CEA trading volume was 2.0746 million tons, a decrease of 31.2% compared with the previous month and an increase compared with the same period last year (1.8543 million tons). The average transaction price of CEA this month was 73.74 yuan/ton, which increased compared with last month (72.61 yuan/ton). ESG factor market performance: We constructed long and short portfolios based on ESG, E factor, S factor, and G factor scores for All A and calculated the portfolio return rate. We found that compared with the benchmark (CSI 300), this month\\'s ESG factors and E, G Factors have significant excess returns, and ESG shows certain excess returns. Overseas policies: (1) On February 3, 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) released the 2024-2025 Climate and Nature Plan, which aims to summarize previous climate actions and formulate new work areas for the next two years; (2) 2024 On February 5, the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) officially announced the release of the sustainable disclosure standard for the mining industry \"GRI14: Mining 2024\"; (3) On February 6, 2024, the European Commission issued a statement recommending that by 2040, The EU\\'s net greenhouse gas emissions have been reduced by 90% based on 1990 levels, demonstrating the EU\\'s determination to take more stringent measures to achieve climate neutrality; (4) On February 20, 2024, French Paris Asset Management Company (BNPPAM) ) announced the launch of its new ESG active fixed income ETF series and the launch of the first two funds. Risk warning: Risks of policy implementation not meeting expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('d8875296-2ffa-5c22-9a14-badeb3db625c'), 'sentimentScore': 0.07763884495943785, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'ILG8FF5JNTNM49NOCQSGUVELBRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:56 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'ILG8FF5JNTNM49NOCQSGUVELBRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('42e655da-f201-5f1b-b237-edd258582c09'), 'title': 'PMI Comments (2024.2): Production demand is weak and destocking is accelerating, and there is an urgent need to stimulate effective domestic demand', 'author': 'Qin Tai', 'orgName': '华金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000134', 'orgSName': '华金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQAfdasaJ84//GTkfACZD3Sw=', 'researcher': '秦泰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249937'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQAfdasaJ84//GTkfACZD3Sw=', 'site': 'Huajin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624855048_1.pdf?1709326108000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624855048_1.pdf?1709326108000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'PMI Comments (2024.2): Production demand is weak and destocking is accelerating, and there is an urgent need to stimulate effective domestic demand', 'originalAuthor': '秦泰', 'originalContent': '投资要点2月PMI受去库存再度加速导致生产放慢的影响而小幅下行，需求侧持续偏冷的情况未有明显改善。2月制造业PMI低位再度小幅下行0.1至49.1，处于近一年来次低水平，产需同步偏弱的背景下未能改善低位波动的态势，主要呈现以下特征：1）去库存再度加速严重拖累企业生产，2月PMI生产指数大幅下行1.5至49.8，成为2023年1月来次低水平，是当月下行的主要拖累因素。2）2月新订单指数持平于49的低位水平，虽未见明显的改善趋势，但在房地产市场持续调整的背景下呈现低位企稳的态势，显示中等收入群体的预期或不再随房地产市场而持续大幅降温，各方面迹象初步呈现筑底的特征；出口方面因春节假期的影响较为显著，新出口订单指数大幅下行0.9至46.3的较低水平。3）去库存速度的短暂放缓趋势未能得到延续，2月去库存再度加速，PMI产成品库存指数大幅下行1.5至47.9，去库存对PMI的拖累仍在持续。服务业PMI回升至51，连续第二个月有所改善；建筑业PMI受极端天气和地方债务风险去化的共同影响而再度小幅回落。2月服务业PMI连续第二个月有所改善，上行0.9至51，正如我们在此前报告《春节期间海内外宏观经济金融市场综述》中所提及，中等收入人群在消费意愿方面未进一步受到财富效应预期较弱的拖累，尤其是服务消费的意愿在筑底期正呈现逐步小幅改善的态势，这也与春节假期期间的各项服务消费数据结构相匹配。建筑业PMI再度小幅下滑0.4至53.5，2月全国各地不同程度的极端天气对建筑施工造成较大影响，此外，地方债务风险持续去化构成另一重要因素。据统计局官方披露，建筑业业务活动预期指数为55.7，建筑业企业对未来行业发展整体较为乐观，随着2023年中增发的万亿国债的逐步落地，预期有望进一步改善。单从PMI产成品库存指数来看去库存速度在去年底短暂放缓后再度有所加速，去库存和内需偏弱正同时对PMI产生拖累。2月工业企业经营数据尚未公布，但PMI产成品库存指数的大幅下行一定程度上反映去库存的阶段性再度加速。本轮去库存至今已延续长达16个月，阶段性加速或源于短期扰动，我们仍然预计本轮去库存有望在2024年上半年见底，对PMI的压制也将逐步减轻，未来工业企业的生产信心加强仍将系于工业品需求能否在政策引导下实现改善。去库再度有所加速进一步反映了工业企业信心受需求偏弱的拖累程度较深。当前发展新质生产力亟需优先刺激有效国内需求，两会在即，预计推升大宗可选商品消费将对工业企业信心改善起到关键性作用。在外需持续降温、外部竞争压力日渐加大的经济环境下，我们预计2024年财政货币等宏观经济政策将倾向以更加积极主动的方式引导内需改善，中央财经委会议已经强调“推动新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新”，或可视为今年政策将大力推动大宗可选商品消费的序幕，在此基础上，工业品需求和工业企业信心都将得到改善。考虑到当前中等收入群体的预期初步呈现稳定迹象，财富效应收缩的影响小幅消退，通过财政扩张在收入端形成更强有力的支撑，同时货币政策积极主动配合形成宽松保障，或许能够有效拉动中等收入群体的消费。维持2024年仍需降准50BP的预测不变，同时对财政进行更大力度的个税减税保持期待。风险提示：稳增长政策力度不及预期风险。', 'content': 'Investment Points: The February PMI fell slightly due to the slowdown in production caused by destocking, and the demand side continued to be cold and there was no significant improvement. In February, the manufacturing PMI dropped slightly from the low point of 0.1 to 49.1, which was the second lowest level in the past year. The situation of low fluctuations failed to improve against the background of weak production and demand. It mainly showed the following characteristics: 1) Destocking accelerated again and seriously dragged down Regarding corporate production, the PMI production index dropped sharply from 1.5 to 49.8 in February, becoming the second lowest level since January 2023 and the main drag factor for the decline that month. 2) The new orders index remained flat at a low level of 49 in February. Although there was no obvious improvement trend, it showed a trend of stabilizing at a low level against the background of the continuous adjustment of the real estate market, indicating that the expectations of the middle-income group may no longer follow the real estate market. The temperature continues to cool significantly, and all signs are initially showing the characteristics of bottoming out; in terms of exports, the impact of the Spring Festival holiday is more significant, and the new export orders index dropped sharply by 0.9 to a low level of 46.3. 3) The short-term slowdown in destocking failed to continue. Destocking accelerated again in February, and the PMI finished goods inventory index dropped sharply by 1.5 to 47.9. The drag on PMI by destocking continues. The service PMI rebounded to 51, improving for the second consecutive month; the construction PMI fell slightly again due to the combined impact of extreme weather and the elimination of local debt risks. The service PMI improved for the second consecutive month in February, rising by 0.9 to 51. As mentioned in our previous report \"Overview of Macroeconomic and Financial Markets at Home and Abroad During the Spring Festival\", middle-income people have not been further affected by their willingness to consume. Dragged down by the expected weak wealth effect, in particular, the willingness to consume services is showing a gradual and slight improvement trend during the bottoming period, which is also consistent with the data structure of various service consumption during the Spring Festival holiday. The PMI of the construction industry fell slightly again by 0.4 to 53.5. Extreme weather of varying degrees across the country in February had a greater impact on construction construction. In addition, the continued elimination of local debt risks constitutes another important factor. According to official disclosures from the Bureau of Statistics, the construction industry business activity expectation index is 55.7. Construction companies are generally optimistic about the future development of the industry. With the gradual implementation of the trillions of additional government bonds issued in mid-2023, expectations are expected to further improve. Judging from the PMI finished goods inventory index alone, the destocking speed has accelerated again after a brief slowdown at the end of last year. Destocking and weak domestic demand are simultaneously dragging down the PMI. The operating data of industrial enterprises in February have not yet been released, but the sharp decline in the PMI finished goods inventory index reflects to a certain extent that the phased destocking process has accelerated again. This round of destocking has lasted for 16 months, and the phased acceleration may be due to short-term disturbances. We still expect that this round of destocking is expected to bottom out in the first half of 2024, and the suppression of PMI will also gradually ease. In the future, industrial enterprises The strengthening of production confidence will still depend on whether demand for industrial products can improve under policy guidance. The accelerated destocking further reflects that the confidence of industrial enterprises is deeply affected by weak demand. At present, the development of new productive forces requires priority to stimulate effective domestic demand. With the two sessions approaching, it is expected that increasing the consumption of bulk optional commodities will play a key role in improving the confidence of industrial enterprises. In an economic environment where external demand continues to cool and external competitive pressure is increasing, we expect that fiscal and monetary and other macroeconomic policies in 2024 will tend to guide the improvement of domestic demand in a more proactive manner. The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting has emphasized \"promoting a new round of major \"Scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in\" may be regarded as the prelude to this year\\'s policy that will vigorously promote the consumption of bulk optional goods. On this basis, the demand for industrial products and the confidence of industrial enterprises will be improved. Considering that the current expectations of the middle-income group have initially shown signs of stabilization, the impact of the contraction of the wealth effect has subsided slightly, and stronger support has been formed on the income side through fiscal expansion. At the same time, the proactive cooperation of monetary policy to form loose guarantees may be able to effectively boost the middle-income group. group consumption. We maintain our forecast that the reserve requirement ratio will still need to be reduced by 50BP in 2024, and at the same time we maintain our expectations for a greater fiscal reduction in personal tax. Risk warning: There is a risk that the policy to stabilize growth is less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('ae91a726-1e5a-5a58-8cc8-85a64f6c36b2'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9531119838356972, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OBGF3SG2IAPJT9U0R2I23NVCGFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:04:58 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OBGF3SG2IAPJT9U0R2I23NVCGFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "https://reportapi.eastmoney.com/report/jg?cb=datatable8544623&pageSize=100&beginTime=2023-12-16&endTime=2024-03-15&pageNo=4&qType=3\n", - "{'id': UUID('81573f57-4e67-5622-80a5-15b6e629e0f4'), 'title': 'Economic Insight: China’s official comprehensive PMI output index remained stable in February', 'author': 'Yao Shaohua', 'orgName': '农银国际证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80180327', 'orgSName': '农银国际证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQM8Q38sx8i/J6HfPeGX9rVI=', 'researcher': '姚少华', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000253246'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQM8Q38sx8i/J6HfPeGX9rVI=', 'site': 'ABC International Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '农银国际证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624851502_1.pdf?1709326226000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624851502_1.pdf?1709326226000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Economic Insight: China’s official comprehensive PMI output index remained stable in February', 'originalAuthor': '姚少华', 'originalContent': '2024年2月中国官方制造业PMI为49.1，比2024年1月略微回落0.1个百分点，略高于市场所预期的49.0。2月份官方制造业PMI略有回落主要因为生产端受春节假期因素影响以及整体需求仍疲弱2月非制造业商务活动指数为51.4，比1月回升0.7个百分点，亦高于市场所预期的50.7。2月份非制造业PMI出现回升主要归因于春节假期服务消费升温，旅游交通行业景气度大幅上升2月综合PMI产出指数为50.9，与1月持平。此外，今日标普全球公布的数据显示，2月财新中国制造业PMI录得50.9，较1月微升0.1个百分点整体来说，2月份的官方制造业PMI、非制造业PMI以及综合PMI产出指数显示中国经济景气程度维持稳定状态，非制造业回升弥补了制造业的放缓。展望未来，3月制造业有望出现明显回升，一方面随着春节假期结束，制造业企业将全面复工复产；另一方面，中央财经委会议提出要鼓励引导新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，这将为制造业带来增量需求。然而，房地产行业的疲弱可能继续拖累3月服务业和建筑业的改善。如果房地产行业继续疲弱的话，未来房地产支持政策恐需继续加码', 'content': \"China's official manufacturing PMI in February 2024 was 49.1, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from January 2024, and slightly higher than the market expectation of 49.0. The official manufacturing PMI fell slightly in February mainly because the production side was affected by the Spring Festival holiday. And overall demand is still weak. The non-manufacturing business activity index in February was 51.4, up 0.7 percentage points from January and higher than the market expectation of 50.7. The rebound in non-manufacturing PMI in February was mainly due to the increase in service consumption during the Spring Festival holiday. , The prosperity of the tourism and transportation industry has increased significantly. The comprehensive PMI output index in February was 50.9, which was the same as in January. In addition, data released by S&P Global today showed that Caixin China's manufacturing PMI recorded 50.9 in February, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from January. Overall, the official manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI and comprehensive PMI in February The output index shows that China's economic prosperity remains stable, and the rebound in non-manufacturing industries has made up for the slowdown in manufacturing. Looking forward, the manufacturing industry is expected to rebound significantly in March. On the one hand, with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, manufacturing companies will fully resume work and production; on the other hand, the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting proposed to encourage and guide a new round of large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods Trade-in old products for new ones will bring incremental demand to the manufacturing industry. However, weakness in the real estate sector may continue to weigh on improvements in the services and construction sectors in March. If the real estate industry continues to be weak, real estate support policies may need to continue to increase in the future.\", 'authorid': UUID('624fc916-32a8-597b-a865-0d0278fbf27c'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9274812415242195, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'VHLNHGUE369JH5S5VDNLKJM943VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:01 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'VHLNHGUE369JH5S5VDNLKJM943VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7991f8d7-f0ca-53cf-bb47-6d89551b6f61'), 'title': 'February 2024 Macro Monthly Report: The probability of a \"non-landing\" of the U.S. economy increases, and the Chinese economy accumulates momentum', 'author': 'Tan Zhuo, Niu Mengqi, Wang Xintian, Liu Yang, Wang Tiancheng, Zhang Bingying', 'orgName': '招商银行股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQF4XJHl/9EdnVdGOpHbTvr8=', 'researcher': '谭卓,牛梦琦,王欣恬,刘阳,王天程,张冰莹', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000281853', '11000353933', '11000369840', '11000392636', '11000412642', '11000430037'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQF4XJHl/9EdnVdGOpHbTvr8=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624847416_1.pdf?1709324211000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624847416_1.pdf?1709324211000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'February 2024 Macro Monthly Report: The probability of a \"non-landing\" of the U.S. economy increases, and the Chinese economy accumulates momentum', 'originalAuthor': '谭卓,牛梦琦,王欣恬,刘阳,王天程,张冰莹', 'originalContent': '美国经济从“软着陆”向“不着陆”过渡，市场对美联储政策的预期快速转鹰，首次降息时点预期从3月推迟至6月，全年降息次数预期从6次收敛至3次。在劳动力市场“供不应求”和人工智能快速发展的双重支撑下，美国经济韧性和通胀粘性双双超出市场预期，通胀短期内难以回归2%，对美联储政策转向持续构成掣肘。在1月末进行的年内首次议息会议上，尽管美联储作出了“年内大概率开启降息”的表态，但也明确打压了市场过激的降息预期。各项数据均指向美联储作出了相对准确的判断，市场预期向美联储引导的方向不断靠拢。我们维持美联储将于年中开启降息，全年降息3次的判断，并继续提示市场预期进一步转鹰的风险。国内实体经济方面，春节期间处于消费旺季生产淡季，总体动能仍显不足。私人部门消费意愿高企，但消费能力尚未修复至疫前水平。房地产市场受前期政策提振结构性修复，新房销售持续低迷，二手房交易显著回暖。生产端未见明显改善，价格指数表现仍弱，资本市场波动加剧。前瞻地看，2-3月重要会议召开后，各项政策效果有望增强，市场信心和经济内生动能或逐步回暖。金融形势方面，信贷需求端，人民币贷款略超季节性水平，房地产政策加码放松下，房企开发贷款和居民购房需求或是主要支撑因素；货币供给端，M2同比增速大幅降至8.7%，主要受居民存款大幅少增拖累，M1同比增速环比上升4.6pct至5.9%，受财政资金加快转为单位活期存款支撑。财政形势方面，各省发布一般公共预算收入增速目标，多数较上年有所下调。预计全国一般公共预算收入和支出增速目标分别为6%和5.5%。开年国债靠前发行，意在保障重点领域支出强度以及平滑整体发行情况。货币政策方面，2月20日，央行宣布5年期以上LPR下降25bp至3.95%，1年期LPR保持不变为3.45%。本次降息幅度总体超出预期，5年期以上LPR调降高达25bp，是自2019年8月LPR报价制度改革以来的单次最大降幅。本次降息充分显示了宏观政策“稳增长”的决心，成效主要将体现在三个方面，一是释放积极信号，提振私人部门信心；二是降低按揭成本，提升居民购房与消费能力；三是熨平信贷利率曲线，优化金融资源配置。前瞻地看，未来货币政策仍有宽松空间。', 'content': 'The U.S. economy is transitioning from a \"soft landing\" to a \"non-landing\", and the market\\'s expectations for the Federal Reserve\\'s policy have quickly turned hawkish. The timing of the first interest rate cut has been postponed from March to June, and the number of interest rate cuts expected throughout the year has converged from 6 to 3. Under the dual support of \"oversupply\" in the labor market and the rapid development of artificial intelligence, the U.S. economic resilience and inflation stickiness have exceeded market expectations. It is difficult for inflation to return to 2% in the short term, which continues to pose constraints to the Federal Reserve\\'s policy shift. At the first interest rate meeting of the year held at the end of January, although the Federal Reserve made a statement that \"it is likely to start cutting interest rates within the year,\" it also clearly suppressed the market\\'s excessive interest rate cut expectations. All data point to a relatively accurate judgment by the Federal Reserve, and market expectations continue to move closer to the direction guided by the Federal Reserve. We maintain our judgment that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in the middle of the year and cut interest rates three times throughout the year, and continue to remind the market of the risk of a further turn to hawkish expectations. In terms of the domestic real economy, the Spring Festival period is in the peak consumption season and the off-peak production season, and the overall momentum is still insufficient. The private sector\\'s willingness to consume is high, but its consumption capacity has not yet recovered to pre-epidemic levels. The real estate market has undergone structural repairs boosted by previous policies, new home sales have continued to be sluggish, and second-hand home transactions have picked up significantly. There has been no significant improvement on the production side, the price index performance remains weak, and capital market volatility has intensified. Looking forward, after the important meetings in February and March, the effects of various policies are expected to be enhanced, and market confidence and economic endogenous momentum may gradually pick up. In terms of financial situation, on the credit demand side, RMB loans are slightly above the seasonal level. With the further relaxation of real estate policies, the demand for development loans of real estate companies and residents\\' house purchase may be the main supporting factors; on the money supply side, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 dropped sharply to 8.7%. Mainly dragged down by the sharp decrease in residents\\' deposits, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 increased by 4.6pct month-on-month to 5.9%, supported by the accelerated conversion of fiscal funds into unit demand deposits. In terms of fiscal situation, each province released general public budget revenue growth targets, and most of them were lowered from the previous year. The national general public budget revenue and expenditure growth targets are expected to be 6% and 5.5% respectively. The issuance of government bonds at the beginning of the year is intended to ensure the intensity of spending in key areas and smooth the overall issuance situation. In terms of monetary policy, on February 20, the central bank announced that the LPR over 5 years fell by 25bp to 3.95%, while the 1-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.45%. The magnitude of this interest rate cut overall exceeded expectations, and the LPR for 5 years and above was reduced by as much as 25bp, which was the largest single reduction since the reform of the LPR quotation system in August 2019. This interest rate cut fully demonstrates the determination of macroeconomic policies to \"stabilize growth\". The results will be mainly reflected in three aspects. First, it releases positive signals and boosts the confidence of the private sector; second, it reduces mortgage costs and enhances residents\\' home purchasing and consumption capabilities; It is to flatten the credit interest rate curve and optimize the allocation of financial resources. Looking forward, there is still room for easing monetary policy in the future.', 'authorid': UUID('81c4216b-5efa-57b9-a005-6e840690f7fe'), 'sentimentScore': -0.4219176769256592, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3F8P1TDNCA7KUDI0J0OB7ARDIJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3F8P1TDNCA7KUDI0J0OB7ARDIJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e2811f37-7d70-5f68-960b-ef9caf098574'), 'title': 'Comments on PMI data in February 2024: The Spring Festival factors caused obvious disturbances, and the official manufacturing and service PMI indexes in February \"falled and then rose\"', 'author': 'Wang Qing, Yan Jun, Feng Lin', 'orgName': '东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司', 'orgCode': '80117870', 'orgSName': '东方金诚', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQI4UODY0yKReEuVBHu5NGso=', 'researcher': '王青,闫骏,冯琳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000265644', '11000415631', '11000282735'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQI4UODY0yKReEuVBHu5NGso=', 'site': 'Oriental Jincheng International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东方金诚', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624847236_1.pdf?1709314693000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624847236_1.pdf?1709314693000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on PMI data in February 2024: The Spring Festival factors caused obvious disturbances, and the official manufacturing and service PMI indexes in February \"falled and then rose\"', 'originalAuthor': '王青,闫骏,冯琳', 'originalContent': '事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2024年2月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.1%，低于上月的49.2%；2月，非制造业商务活动指数为51.4%，高于上月的50.7%，其中，建筑业PMI���数为53.5%，低于上月的53.9%，服务业PMI指数为51.0%，高于上月的50.1%。2月PMI数据要点解读如下：今年春节是2000年以首个完全不受新冠疫情影响的春节，企业员工假期返乡大幅增加，对2月制造业PMI指数运行带来较强影响。首先，受员工离岗影响，当月生产指数较上月大幅下降1.5个百分点，降至49.8%，9个月来首次降入收缩区间，是拖累2月PMI指数整体下行的主要原因。这符合历年春节期间生产指数下行的一般规律。其次，物流公司员工放假导致配送时间拉长，2月供货端配送时间指数大幅下降2个百分点至48.8%。不过，该指标为反向指标，对当月PMI指数整体水平有一定推高作用，很大程度上抵消了生产指数大降带来的影响。2月制造业新订单指数为49%，与上月持平，连续5个月处于收缩区间。当月反映需求不足的企业占比超过60%，需求不足问题仍然突出。我们判断，房地产行业低迷背景下，居民消费信心受到影响，是制造业需求不足的主要原因。这一点并未因春节消费旺季到来而有所改变。更为重要的是，2月央行降准落地、5年期以上LPR报价大幅下调0.25个百分点，城市房地产融资协调机制也加速落地，稳增长政策明显发力，但对市场需求的提振效应尚不明显，背后是2月楼市继续处于低迷状态。这是当前影响宏观经济运行及市场需求的最重要因素。需要注意的是，2月新出口订单指数较上月下降0.9个百分点，至46.3%，降至2023年下半年以来的底部区域。这意味着尽管今年全球贸易趋于回暖，但短期内我国出口恐难现大幅增长，外需对宏观经济的拉动作用不宜过度高估。其他市场比较关注的分项指数方面，2月制造业PMI中的两个价格指数“一升一降”。其中，出厂价格指数上行1.1个百分点至48.1%，环比降幅收窄，但继续处于收缩区间，背后是当前供应稳定而市场需求不足。2月主要原材料购进价格指数下降0.3个百分点50.1%，意味着大宗商品价格保持涨势，但环比涨幅有所收窄。近期红海局势紧张对国际大宗商品价格的推升效应减弱，而国内房地产行业继续处于调整状态，加之春节假期需求下降，2月国内主导的钢铁、水泥、煤炭等大宗商品价格稳中偏弱。考虑到上年同期价格基数平稳，我们预计2月PPI同比降幅仍将从上月的-2.5%收窄至-2.3%左右。2月大型企业PMI稳定在50.4%的扩张区间，主要源于稳增长政策对基建等大型企业影响更为直接。当月中型企业PMI指数也有所上行，而小型企业PMI指数低位大幅下行0.8个百分点，至46.4%，春节假期员工大规模放假可能是一个重要扰动因素。不过，近一段时间以来，小型企业景气度明显偏低，背后是小型企业多接近市场终端，消费需求不足对其影响更为直接。由于小型企业是吸纳城镇就业的主力军，当前政策面正在加大对小微企业的支持力度，其中1月24日央行宣布下调支农支小再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点。我们判断，后期财政政策针对小微企业的减税降费政策也将适时推出。2月服务业PMI指数为51.0%，比上月大幅上扬0.9个百分点，连续两个月处于扩张区间。主要受春节假期服务消费升温，旅游交通行业景气度上行带动。这意味着短期内服务业仍将是拉动经济增长的主要引擎。2月建筑业商务活动指数为53.5%，较上月回落0.4个百分点，符合春节期间波动规律。但该指数继续处于高景气状态，与近期基建投资提速相印证，是稳增长政策发力的清晰信号。整体上看，主要受春节假期因素影响，2月制造业PMI指数低位小幅下行，服务业PMI指数在扩张区间大幅上扬，综合PMI产出指数为50.9%，与上月持平，整体宏观经济景气度保持稳定。不过，2月制造业PMI指数连续5个月处于收缩区间，其中房地产行业低迷对市场需求拖累明显，当前经济运行仍面临一定下行压力。这意味着一季度已进入稳增长关键阶段，我们判断，在货币政策降准、5年期以上LPR报价下调后，政策性降息，即下调MLF操作利率也有可能在短期内落地。另外，一季度财政政策也将全面发力，其中在2月地方政府专项债发行显著加快后，3月发行量将进一步加大至万亿规模，开年基建投资有望继续保持较高增长水平。展望未来，居民消费存在一定内在修复动力，加之2月召开的中央财经委第四次会议部署大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，宏观政策正在加大力度提振内需，2024年3月制造业和服务业PMI指数有望改善，但制造业PMI指数回升至扩张区间还需要一个过程。后期回升速度将主要取决于三个因素：首先是在房地产支持政策全面加码前景下，楼市能否较��企稳回升。这是当前宏观经济牵一发动全身的关键点。二是一季度财政政策稳增长加力后，2024年初基建投资能否较快形成实物工作量，特别是加发1万亿国债对基建投资的拉动效应能否较快释放。三是以旧换新促消费政策将在多大程度上拉动耐用品消费。', 'content': '事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2024年2月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.1%，低于上月的49.2%；2月，非制造业商务活动指数为51.4%，高于上月的50.7%，其中，建筑业PMI指数为53.5%，低于上月的53.9%，服务业PMI指数为51.0%，高于上月的50.1%。2月PMI数据要点解读如下：今年春节是2000年以首个完全不受新冠疫情影响的春节，企业员工假期返乡大幅增加，对2月制造业PMI指数运行带来较强影响。首先，受员工离岗影响，当月生产指数较上月大幅下降1.5个百分点，降至49.8%，9个月来首次降入收缩区间，是拖累2月PMI指数整体下行的主要原因。这符合历年春节期间生产指数下行的一般规律。其次，物流公司员工放假导致配送时间拉长，2月供货端配送时间指数大幅下降2个百分点至48.8%。不过，该指标为反向指标，对当月PMI指数整体水平有一定推高作用，很大程度上抵消了生产指数大降带来的影响。2月制造业新订单指数为49%，与上月持平，连续5个月处于收缩区间。当月反映需求不足的企业占比超过60%，需求不足问题仍然突出。我们判断，房地产行业低迷背景下，居民消费信心受到影响，是制造业需求不足的主要原因。这一点并未因春节消费旺季到来而有所改变。更为重要的是，2月央行降准落地、5年期以上LPR报价大幅下调0.25个百分点，城市房地产融资协调机制也加速落地，稳增长政策明显发力，但对市场需求的提振效应尚不明显，背后是2月楼市继续处于低迷状态。这是当前影响宏观经济运行及市场需求的最重要因素。需要注意的是，2月新出口订单指数较上月下降0.9个百分点，至46.3%，降至2023年下半年以来的底部区域。这意味着尽管今年全球贸易趋于回暖，但短期内我国出口恐难现大幅增长，外需对宏观经济的拉动作用不宜过度高估。其他市场比较关注的分项指数方面，2月制造业PMI中的两个价格指数“一升一降”。其中，出厂价格指数上行1.1个百分点至48.1%，环比降幅收窄，但继续处于收缩区间，背后是当前供应稳定而市场需求不足。2月主要原材料购进价格指数下降0.3个百分点50.1%，意味着大宗商品价格保持涨势，但环比涨幅有所收窄。近期红海局势紧张对国际大宗商品价格的推升效应减弱，而国内房地产行业继续处于调整状态，加之春节假期需求下降，2月国内主导的钢铁、水泥、煤炭等大宗商品价格稳中偏弱。考虑到上年同期价格基数平稳，我们预计2月PPI同比降幅仍将从上月的-2.5%收窄至-2.3%左右。2月大型企业PMI稳定在50.4%的扩张区间，主要源于稳增长政策对基建等大型企业影响更为直接。当月中型企业PMI指数也有所上行，而小型企业PMI指数低位大幅下行0.8个百分点，至46.4%，春节假期员工大规模放假可能是一个重要扰动因素。不过，近一段时间以来，小型企业景气度明显偏低，背后是小型企业多接近市场终端，消费需求不足对其影响更为直接。由于小型企业是吸纳城镇就业的主力军，当前政策面正在加大对小微企业的支持力度，其中1月24日央行宣布下调支农支小再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点。我们判断，后期财政政策针对小微企业的减税降费政策也将适时推出。2月服务业PMI指数为51.0%，比上月大幅上扬0.9个百分点，连续两个月处于扩张区间。主要受春节假期服务消费升温，旅游交通行业景气度上行带动。这意味着短期内服务业仍将是拉动经济增长的主要引擎。2月建筑业商务活动指数为53.5%，较上月回落0.4个百分点，符合春节期间波动规律。但该指数继续处于高景气状态，与近期基建投资提速相印证，是稳增长政策发力的清晰信号。整体上看，主要受春节假期因素影响，2月制造业PMI指数低位小幅下行，服务业PMI指数在扩张区间大幅上扬，综合PMI产出指数为50.9%，与上月持平，整体宏观经济景气度保持稳定。不过，2月制造业PMI指数连续5个月处于收缩区间，其中房地产行业低迷对市场需求拖累明显，当前经济运行仍面临一定下行压力。这意味着一季度已进入稳增长关键阶段，我们判断，在货币政策降准、5年期以上LPR报价下调后，政策性降息，即下调MLF操作利率也有可能在短期内落地。另外，一季度财政政策也将全面发力，其中在2月地方政府专项债发行显著加快后，3月发行量将进一步加大至万亿规模，开年基建投资有望继续保持较高增长水平。展望未来，居民消费存在一定内在修复动力，加之2月召开的中央财经委第四次会议部署大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，宏观政策正在加大力度提振内需，2024年3月制造业和服务业PMI指数有望改善，但制造业PMI指数回升至扩张区间还需要一个过程。后期回升速度将主要取决于三个因素：首先是在房地产支持政策全面加码前景下，楼市能否较快企稳回升。这是当前宏观经济牵一发动全身的关键点。二是一季度财政政策稳增长加力后，2024年初基建投资能否较快形成实物工作量，特别是加发1万亿国债对基建投资的拉动效应能否较快释放。三是以旧换新促消费政策将在多大程度上拉动耐用品消费。', 'authorid': UUID('e8ebec48-14e9-5248-b6d4-7e5cc8a6af9b'), 'sentimentScore': 0.0079415962100029, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'H4351CCRJ8CNN2TQH9HCRCL8AFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:09 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'H4351CCRJ8CNN2TQH9HCRCL8AFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('dfe6d06c-12bf-5732-bfc6-de4e9d796d38'), 'title': 'Comments on February PMI data: Spring Festival disturbances amplify differences in business entities', 'author': 'Luo Yunfeng, Yang Feiran', 'orgName': '华金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000134', 'orgSName': '华金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQFGmRmTdf14oJ4N6G5qrshU=', 'researcher': '罗云峰,杨斐然', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000218293', '11000436436'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQFGmRmTdf14oJ4N6G5qrshU=', 'site': 'Huajin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624846959_1.pdf?1709314076000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624846959_1.pdf?1709314076000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February PMI data: Spring Festival disturbances amplify differences in business entities', 'originalAuthor': '罗云峰,杨斐然', 'originalContent': '事件：统计局公布2月制造业PMI，环比下降0.1至49.1；非制造业PMI继续提升0.7至51.4，连续3个月提升；综合PMI回升维持50.9。由于春节假期影响，2月制造业供给需收缩，但经营预期回升；节日出行和消费推高服务业PMI；整体而言，经济景气水平基本稳定。一、制造业：春节假期企业员工反乡增多，生产端季节性收缩，企业被动去库；外需回调，内需反弹1）生产与投资端，生产由扩张转为收缩，产成品被动去库。2月生产指数回调0.5至49.8，去年6月以后重返荣枯线以下；投资扩张季节性收缩，采购量回落1.2至48.0、原材料库存继续下降0.2至47.4；需求稳定背景下企业被动去库，产成品库存回落1.5至47.9。分行业看，食品及酒饮料精制茶、造纸印刷及文教体美娱用品、医药等行业生产指数高于53.0，相关行业生产增长较快；化工、非金属矿物制品等行业生产指数低于临界点，生产活动放缓。2）需求端新订单维持49.0，连续5个月处于收缩区间；外需回调，内需反弹；高耗能行业需求收缩幅度最大。2月，外需回落0.9至46.3，连续11月处于收缩区间；内需“新订单-新出口订单”反弹。从行业看，食品及酒饮料精制茶、医药、有色金属冶炼及压延加工、电气机械器材等行业的产、需指数均连续两个月位于临界点以上；化学纤维及橡胶塑料制品、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工等行业的产、需指数均位于临界点以下。3）价格与利润方面，企业对下游议价能力环比改善，但仍处于荣枯线以下，且弱于原材料购进价格，企业利润继续承压。2月原材料购进价格继续回调0.3至50.1，仍高于荣枯线；出厂价格显著回升1.1至48.1，为近三个月最高。4）大型企业生产扩张幅度缩小，但产需持续处于扩张区间；中型企业生产端重回荣枯线以下，但需求收缩幅度显著改善，由47提升至49.4；小型企业受春节假日影响更为明显，各指标普遍在明显收缩区间内下滑，尤其是新出口订单大幅下滑7.1至37.5。2月大、中、小型制造业企业PMI分别变动0.0、0.2、-0.8至50.4、49.1、46.4。5）高技术制造业保持扩张，装备制造业回落至荣枯线以下。2月高技术制造业、装备制造业、消费品行业、基础原材料行业分别变动-0.3、-0.6、-0.1、0.3至50.8、49.5、50.0、47.9。6）供需偏弱影���，制造业企业用工景气度仍在恶化。2月从业人员指数进一步小幅下降0.1至47.5，为2023年以来最低点。7）企业预期稳定。生产经营活动预期指数为54.2，比上月上升0.2，表明企业对春节后市场发展信心有所增强。从行业看，木材加工及家具、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备、电气机械器材等行业经营活动预期指数均位于58.0以上较高景气区间。二、非制造业：服务业扩张加快带动非制造业景气提高1）受春节假期及低温雨雪天气等因素影响，建筑业PMI回落0.4至53.5，其中业务活动预期显著下降（回调6.2至55.7）、销售价格回到荣枯线以下（回调1.5至48.9）、以及就业指标回到荣枯线以下（下降2.5至47.6）。需求侧，建筑业新订单回升0.6至47.3，但仍处于荣枯线以下。2）受节假日出行消费提振，服务业PMI提高0.9至51.0，为2023年8月以来最高。从行业看，与节日出行和消费密切相关的行业生产经营较为活跃，其中零售、铁路运输、道路运输、餐饮、生态保护及公共设施管理等行业PMI位于53以上；航空运输、货币金融服务、文化体育娱乐等行业PMI位于60以上高位景气区间。较弱的方面，房地产、居民服务等行业PMI则继续低于临界点。从市场预期看，服务业业务活动预期回落1.2至58.1，持续位于较高景气区间，多数服务业企业对近期市场发展继续看好。三、财新制造业PMI与中采PMI继续背离，但有部分一致性，中采PMI或更具广泛代表性；两者差异侧面反映不同规模企业经营情况的差异拉大。1）2月，国家统计局制造业PMI与财新中国制造业PMI连续第四个月出现背离。过去四个月，财新中国制造业PMI分别录得50.7、50.8、50.8、50.9，经济景气度持续向好；国家统计局制造业PMI分别录得49.4、49.0、49.2、49.1，持续低于荣枯线不过幅度有限。2）财新PMI显示生产、新订单、经营预期继续扩张，但供需改善尚未传递到就业、价格端。财新制造业PMI较上月微升0.1至50.9，2021年下半年以来首次连续四个月位于扩张区间，表明制造业景气度持续提升。其中，产出与需求均继续扩张。当月制造业生产指数、新订单指数、新出口订单指数均在扩张区间上升，其中生产指数和新出口订单指数分别录得9个月和12个月以来最高；原材料库存指数连续两个月高于荣枯线，并录得2020年12月以来最高。财新PMI显示，制造业企业家乐观情绪继续提升，2月生产经营预期指数续创2023年5月以来新高，企业家预期未来一年全球经济回暖，内外部需求增加。财新PMI显示，供需改善尚未传递到就业、价格端，价格水平仍较疲弱，企业利润持续承压。企业对增加用工保持审慎，就业指数连续第六个月位于荣枯线以下，且较上月略有下降。据调查，部分企业因公司重组和成本控制而减少用工。分子行业看，消费品生产企业人员的增加无法抵消投资品和中间品生产企业员工的减少。制造业出厂价格指数连续第二个月位于收缩区间，购进价格指数仅略高于荣枯线，两者均为2023年8月来最低。3）历史数据显示财新PMI实际上与大企业景气度、国企的工业增加值相关性更高，且与制造业工业增加值、私企工业增加值相关性极低。2012年以来，财新制造业PMI与中采制造业大、中、小企业PMI的相关系数分别为0.66、0.59、0.50。财新制造业PMI与制造业工增同比、国企工增同比、私企工增同比的相关系数分别为0.20、0.68、0.34，相比之下，中采制造业PMI与以上三者相关系数分别为0.53、0.68、0.58。4）两种PMI的差异主要源自样本不同，由于调查样本量不同（统计局3200家，财新650家）或导致财新PMI更具波动性，而中采PMI或更具广泛代表性。两种PMI合并来看，共性的方面在于需求弱于生产、经营预期回升、就业承压、以及价格疲软，两者的差异之处或侧面印证了大、小企业之间以及国企、私企之间经营情况差异拉大，尤其是春节假期导致的数据波动放大了这一差异。四、投资建议整体观察中国国家资产负债表，2月实体部门负债增速或趋于收敛，金融市场的强劲表现，可能更多来自于实体经济走弱释放出更多的剩余流动性，这里面有去年2月基数效应的影响，预计3月金融市场的剩余流动性很难边际上进一步增加。具体而言，预计一年期国债收益率中枢在1.9%，2023年6、8月两次降息期间形成的低点（1.73%）可以视为底部位置，2月20日LPR非对称降息后，下调期限利差中枢预估至60个基点，对应十债收益率中枢在2.5%，区间预估在2.3-2.7%，三十年国债和十年国债的利差进一步压缩空间或已有限，下调年内三十年和十年国债利差压缩至10个���点左右（目前已经基本到位）。市场似乎来到了一个比较尴尬的位置，各期限债券收益率全面接近了我们预测的区间下沿位置，进一步向下突破的空间不大，而在缩表周期下，股债性价比偏向权益的幅度有限，风格上的确定性更高一些，即在连续三周成长跑赢价值后，价值重回相对占优的概率更高，新增判断是红利指数和上证50指数目前或处于相对均衡的位置。风险提示：经济失速下滑，政策超预期宽松', 'content': '事件：统计局公布2月制造业PMI，环比下降0.1至49.1；非制造业PMI继续提升0.7至51.4，连续3个月提升；综合PMI回升维持50.9。由于春节假期影响，2月制造业供给需收缩，但经营预期回升；节日出行和消费推高服务业PMI；整体而言，经济景气水平基本稳定。一、制造业：春节假期企业员工反乡增多，生产端季节性收缩，企业被动去库；外需回调，内需反弹1）生产与投资端，生产由扩张转为收缩，产成品被动去库。2月生产指数回调0.5至49.8，去年6月以后重返荣枯线以下；投资扩张季节性收缩，采购量回落1.2至48.0、原材料库存继续下降0.2至47.4；需求稳定背景下企业被动去库，产成品库存回落1.5至47.9。分行业看，食品及酒饮料精制茶、造纸印刷及文教体美娱用品、医药等行业生产指数高于53.0，相关行业生产增长较快；化工、非金属矿物制品等行业生产指数低于临界点，生产活动放缓。2）需求端新订单维持49.0，连续5个月处于收缩区间；外需回调，内需反弹；高耗能行业需求收缩幅度最大。2月，外需回落0.9至46.3，连续11月处于收缩区间；内需“新订单-新出口订单”反弹。从行业看，食品及酒饮料精制茶、医药、有色金属冶炼及压延加工、电气机械器材等行业的产、需指数均连续两个月位于临界点以上；化学纤维及橡胶塑料制品、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工等行业的产、需指数均位于临界点以下。3）价格与利润方面，企业对下游议价能力环比改善，但仍处于荣枯线以下，且弱于原材料购进价格，企业利润继续承压。2月原材料购进价格继续回调0.3至50.1，仍高于荣枯线；出厂价格显著回升1.1至48.1，为近三个月最高。4）大型企业生产扩张幅度缩小，但产需持续处于扩张区间；中型企业生产端重回荣枯线以下，但需求收缩幅度显著改善，由47提升至49.4；小型企业受春节假日影响更为明显，各指标普遍在明显收缩区间内下滑，尤其是新出口订单大幅下滑7.1至37.5。2月大、中、小型制造业企业PMI分别变动0.0、0.2、-0.8至50.4、49.1、46.4。5）高技术制造业保持扩张，装备制造业回落至荣枯线以下。2月高技术制造业、装备制造业、消费品行业、基础原材料行业分别变动-0.3、-0.6、-0.1、0.3至50.8、49.5、50.0、47.9。6）供需偏弱影响，制造业企业用工景气度仍在恶化。2月从业人员指数进一步小幅下降0.1至47.5，为2023年以来最低点。7）企业预期稳定。生产经营活动预期指数为54.2，比上月上升0.2，表明企业对春节后市场发展信心有所增强。从行业看，木材加工及家具、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备、电气机械器材等行业经营活动预期指数均位于58.0以上较高景气区间。二、非制造业：服务业扩张加快带动非制造业景气提高1）受春节假期及低温雨雪天气等因素影响，建筑业PMI回落0.4至53.5，其中业务活动预期显著下降（回调6.2至55.7）、销售价格回到荣枯线以下（回调1.5至48.9）、以及就业指标回到荣枯线以下（下降2.5至47.6）。需求侧，建筑业新订单回升0.6至47.3，但仍处于荣枯线以下。2）受节假日出行消费提振，服务业PMI提高0.9至51.0，为2023年8月以来最高。从行业看，与节日出行和消费密切相关的行业生产经营较为活跃，其中零售、铁路运输、道路运输、餐饮、生态保护及公共设施管理等行业PMI位于53以上；航空运输、货币金融服务、文化体育娱乐等行业PMI位于60以上高位景气区间。较弱的方面，房地产、居民服务等行业PMI则继续低于临界点。从市场预期看，服务业业务活动预期回落1.2至58.1，持续位于较高景气区间，多数服务业企业对近期市场发展继续看好。三、财新制造业PMI与中采PMI继续背离，但有部分一致性，中采PMI或更具广泛代表性；两者差异侧面反映不同规模企业经营情况的差异拉大。1）2月，国家统计局制造业PMI与财新中国制造业PMI连续第四个月出现背离。过去四个月，财新中国制造业PMI分别录得50.7、50.8、50.8、50.9，经济景气度持续向好；国家统计局制造业PMI分别录得49.4、49.0、49.2、49.1，持续低于荣枯线不过幅度有限。2）财���PMI显示生产、新订单、经营预期继续扩张，但供需改善尚未传递到就业、价格端。财新制造业PMI较上月微升0.1至50.9，2021年下半年以来首次连续四个月位于扩张区间，表明制造业景气度持续提升。其中，产出与需求均继续扩张。当月制造业生产指数、新订单指数、新出口订单指数均在扩张区间上升，其中生产指数和新出口订单指数分别录得9个月和12个月以来最高；原材料库存指数连续两个月高于荣枯线，并录得2020年12月以来最高。财新PMI显示，制造业企业家乐观情绪继续提升，2月生产经营预期指数续创2023年5月以来新高，企业家预期未来一年全球经济回暖，内外部需求增加。财新PMI显示，供需改善尚未传递到就业、价格端，价格水平仍较疲弱，企业利润持续承压。企业对增加用工保持审慎，就业指数连续第六个月位于荣枯线以下，且较上月略有下降。据调查，部分企业因公司重组和成本控制而减少用工。分子行业看，消费品生产企业人员的增加无法抵消投资品和中间品生产企业员工的减少。制造业出厂价格指数连续第二个月位于收缩区间，购进价格指数仅略高于荣枯线，两者均为2023年8月来最低。3）历史数据显示财新PMI实际上与大企业景气度、国企的工业增加值相关性更高，且与制造业工业增加值、私企工业增加值相关性极低。2012年以来，财新制造业PMI与中采制造业大、中、小企业PMI的相关系数分别为0.66、0.59、0.50。财新制造业PMI与制造业工增同比、国企工增同比、私企工增同比的相关系数分别为0.20、0.68、0.34，相比之下，中采制造业PMI与以上三者相关系数分别为0.53、0.68、0.58。4）两种PMI的差异主要源自样本不同，由于调查样本量不同（统计局3200家，财新650家）或导致财新PMI更具波动性，而中采PMI或更具广泛代表性。两种PMI合并来看，共性的方面在于需求弱于生产、经营预期回升、就业承压、以及价格疲软，两者的差异之处或侧面印证了大、小企业之间以及国企、私企之间经营情况差异拉大，尤其是春节假期导致的数据波动放大了这一差异。四、投资建议整体观察中国国家资产负债表，2月实体部门负债增速或趋于收敛，金融市场的强劲表现，可能更多来自于实体经济走弱释放出更多的剩余流动性，这里面有去年2月基数效应的影响，预计3月金融市场的剩余流动性很难边际上进一步增加。具体而言，预计一年期国债收益率中枢在1.9%，2023年6、8月两次降息期间形成的低点（1.73%）可以视为底部位置，2月20日LPR非对称降息后，下调期限利差中枢预估至60个基点，对应十债收益率中枢在2.5%，区间预估在2.3-2.7%，三十年国债和十年国债的利差进一步压缩空间或已有限，下调年内三十年和十年国债利差压缩至10个基点左右（目前已经基本到位）。市场似乎来到了一个比较尴尬的位置，各期限债券收益率全面接近了我们预测的区间下沿位置，进一步向下突破的空间不大，而在缩表周期下，股债性价比偏向权益的幅度有限，风格上的确定性更高一些，即在连续三周成长跑赢价值后，价值重回相对占优的概率更高，新增判断是红利指数和上证50指数目前或处于相对均衡的位置。风险提示：经济失速下滑，政策超预期宽松', 'authorid': UUID('d1971c2d-f99a-5111-adc7-31ae4cececf4'), 'sentimentScore': -0.005037330090999603, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'J7KPJC1FG7A6RPM5E8H17A3OV7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:14 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'J7KPJC1FG7A6RPM5E8H17A3OV7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b2465aaf-66ac-558f-86a9-e5d296cd09de'), 'title': 'Comments on February PMI data: Manufacturing PMI fell back in February', 'author': 'Chen Li', 'orgName': '川财证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000204', 'orgSName': '川财证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQOVIXL0QLZxNCOkdOPeny4w=', 'researcher': '陈雳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000174919'], 'count': 13, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQOVIXL0QLZxNCOkdOPeny4w=', 'site': 'Chuancai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '川财证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624844163_1.pdf?1709311115000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624844163_1.pdf?1709311115000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February PMI data: Manufacturing PMI fell back in February', 'originalAuthor': '陈雳', 'originalContent': '事件2月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.1%，比上月下降0.1个百分点，制造业景气水平有所下降。（国家统计局）点评2月制造业PMI有所回落。2月份制造业PMI为49.1%，较上月下降0.1个百分点，主要由于春节期间企业员工大规模返乡，对企业经营造成一定影响；叠加当前制造业处于传统生产淡季，制造业景气水平小幅下降。从不同企业规模来看，大型企业PMI与上月持平，继续位于扩张区间；中型企业PMI为49.1%，小幅回升但仍在荣枯线以下；小型企业PMI为46.4%，较上月下降0.8个百分点，于收缩区间持续回落，民营小微企业复苏情况不及预期。2023年11月27日，央行等八部门印发印发《关于强化金融支持举措助力民营经济发展壮大的通知》，出台金融支持民营经济的25条举措。2024年2月28日国新办举行的国务院政策例行吹风会上，司法部表示，民营经济促进法立法工作已经全面启动。优化民企营商环境、畅通民企融资渠道、加大政策支持力度，随着一系列提振民营经济、支持小微企业的政策措施持续落地显效，中小企业受抑制的产需有望进一步恢复。制造业生产指数下降，新订单指数持平前值。从分类指数来看，2月生产指数为49.8%，较上月下降1.5个百分点，由扩张区间降至收缩区间，表明制造业企业生产活动有所放缓，受到春节假期、传统生产淡季影响。新订单指数为49.0%，与上月持平，其中，新出口订单指数回落0.9个百分点，对新订单指数形成拖累。2024年1月，全球制造业PMI自2023年以来首次回升至临界点，叠加美国制造业PMI升至扩张区间，释放外需回暖信号。展望后市，外需回暖有望对我国新出口订单指数回暖形成支撑，从而带动新订单指数提高。生产经营活动预期指数于扩张区间提高，企业预期稳定。生产经营活动预期指数为54.2%，较上月提高0.2个百分点，表明企业对节后市场的信心有所增强，其中，木材加工及家具、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备、电气机械器材等行业发展信心尤其高，生产经营活动预期指数均位于58.0%以上的较高景气区间。2024年2月底，中央政治局会议强调“营造稳定透明可预期的政策环境”，预计后续稳预期相关政策将接续发力。随着利好市场发展的积极因素不断累积，企业信心有望进一步提高。风险提示：宏观经济不及预期，增量政策不及预期，海外经济超预期下行风险。', 'content': 'In February, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 49.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. (National Bureau of Statistics) commented that the manufacturing PMI fell back in February. The manufacturing PMI in February was 49.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. This was mainly due to the large-scale return of corporate employees during the Spring Festival, which had a certain impact on corporate operations. In addition, the current manufacturing industry is in the traditional production off-season, and the manufacturing boom level has declined slightly. . From the perspective of different enterprise sizes, the PMI of large enterprises was the same as last month and continued to be in the expansion range; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 49.1%, a slight rebound but still below the boom and bust line; the PMI of small enterprises was 46.4%, down 0.8 points from the previous month. percentage points, continued to fall within the contraction range, and the recovery of private small and micro enterprises was less than expected. On November 27, 2023, eight departments including the central bank issued the \"Notice on Strengthening Financial Support Measures to Help the Development and Growth of the Private Economy\" and introduced 25 financial measures to support the private economy. At a regular briefing on State Council policies held by the State Council Information Office on February 28, 2024, the Ministry of Justice stated that the legislative work on the Private Economy Promotion Law has been fully launched. Optimize the business environment for private enterprises, unblock financing channels for private enterprises, and increase policy support. As a series of policy measures to boost the private economy and support small and micro enterprises continue to be effective, the suppressed production demand of small and medium-sized enterprises is expected to further recover. The manufacturing production index fell and the new orders index remained unchanged. From the perspective of sub-indices, the production index in February was 49.8%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, from the expansion range to the contraction range, indicating that the production activities of manufacturing enterprises have slowed down, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the traditional production off-season. The new orders index was 49.0%, the same as last month. Among them, the new export orders index fell by 0.9 percentage points, which was a drag on the new orders index. In January 2024, the global manufacturing PMI rose to the critical point for the first time since 2023, and the U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range, releasing a signal of recovery in external demand. Looking forward to the market outlook, the rebound in external demand is expected to support the rebound in my country\\'s new export orders index, thereby driving the new orders index to increase. The expectation index for production and operating activities increased within the expansion range, and corporate expectations were stable. The expectation index for production and operating activities was 54.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that companies have increased confidence in the post-holiday market. Among them, the development of wood processing and furniture, automobiles, railways, ships, aerospace equipment, electrical machinery and other industries Confidence is particularly high, with production and operating activity expectations indexes all in a relatively high business range of over 58.0%. At the end of February 2024, the Political Bureau meeting of the Central Committee emphasized \"creating a stable, transparent and predictable policy environment\", and it is expected that subsequent policies related to stabilizing expectations will continue to be implemented. As positive factors that benefit market development continue to accumulate, corporate confidence is expected to further improve. Risk warning: The macro economy is not as good as expected, incremental policies are not as good as expected, and overseas economies are at risk of downside risks that exceed expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('267e0858-7a39-5196-be76-43e80fed6dc6'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9647828955203295, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'NJQUOD7L3TMH7TR1U1795TNUTNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'NJQUOD7L3TMH7TR1U1795TNUTNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9d35f6e1-34d8-552f-9261-a01890ce77ef'), 'title': 'Comments on February PMI data: The Spring Festival holiday did not interrupt the positive effect of the “stabilizing growth” policy', 'author': 'Chen Qi, Zhu Qibing', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQNsQcXV7pN1upHMrGRe1tWc=', 'researcher': '陈琦,朱启兵', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288352', '11000224223'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQNsQcXV7pN1upHMrGRe1tWc=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624843195_1.pdf?1709310817000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624843195_1.pdf?1709310817000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February PMI data: The Spring Festival holiday did not interrupt the positive effect of the “stabilizing growth” policy', 'originalAuthor': '陈琦,朱启兵', 'originalContent': '内需对制造业订单有所支撑。春节假期并未打断“稳增长”政策的积极作用。高技术产业维持较高景气度。内需对制造业订单有所支撑。2月制造业PMI指数为49.1%，较1月下降0.1个百分点，制造业景气度仍处于荣枯线以下。着眼重要细分项，2月新订单指数49.0%，与1月持平，新出口订单较上月下降0.9个百分点至46.3%，内需对制造业订单有所支撑。生产指数实现49.8%，较1月明显下滑1.5个百分点；原材料库存指数47.4%，较1月继续下降0.2个百分点；产成品库存指数为47.9%，较1月下滑1.5个百分点；从业人员指数为47.5%，较1月继续下降0.1个百分点；供货商配送时间指数为48.8%，较1月明显下降2.0个百分点。企业预期方面，制造业生产经营活动预期指数实现54.2%，较1月小幅改善0.2个百分点。春节假期并未打断“稳增长”政策的积极作用。2月制造业生产活跃度明显下滑，采购指数较1月下降1.2个百分点至48.0%，原材料库存、供应商配送指数环比同样有所下降，春节假期是影响生产活跃度的主要因素。但从具体行业的表现看，春节假期并未打断“稳增长”政策的积极作用。一方面，部分原材料加工工业需求延续改善，2月有色金属冶炼加工业和金属制品业新订单指数分别明显上升14.8和27.5个百分点。另一方面，装备制造业出现“主动补库”迹象，2月专用设备、通用设备制造业出厂价格、新订单指数共同抬升；在需求、价格共同加厚产业利润的背景下，2月专用、通用设备行业产成品库存指数分别抬升3.0和7.8个百分点。去年以来，“稳增长”政策从项目、资金等多方面积极发力，年内投资蓄势待发，装备制造业、原材料加工业景气度有望得到进一步提振。2月非制造业PMI指数延续回升。2月非制造业PMI指数实现51.4%，较1月继续增长0.7个百分点。从需求端看，2月新订单指数为46.8%，较1月回落0.8个百分点；外部需求有所回升，新出口订单指数实现47.3%，较1月回升2.1个百分点。春节假期对非制造业供给效率有所影响。2月非制造业从业人员指数实现47.0%，与1月持平，仍处于荣枯线以下；供应商配送指数实现50.3%，较1月回落1.7个百分点。风险提示：海外通胀韧性超预期；地缘关系的不确定性。', 'content': 'Domestic demand has supported manufacturing orders. The Spring Festival holiday did not interrupt the positive effect of the \"stabilizing growth\" policy. High-tech industries maintain a high degree of prosperity. Domestic demand has supported manufacturing orders. The manufacturing PMI index in February was 49.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from January. The prosperity of the manufacturing industry is still below the boom-bust line. Focusing on important subdivisions, the new orders index in February was 49.0%, the same as January. New export orders fell 0.9 percentage points from the previous month to 46.3%. Domestic demand supported manufacturing orders. The production index reached 49.8%, a significant decrease of 1.5 percentage points from January; the raw material inventory index was 47.4%, a continued decrease of 0.2 percentage points from January; the finished product inventory index was 47.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from January; the employee index was 47.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from January. 47.5%, a continued decrease of 0.1 percentage points from January; the supplier delivery time index was 48.8%, a significant decrease of 2.0 percentage points from January. In terms of corporate expectations, the manufacturing production and operation activity expectation index reached 54.2%, a slight improvement of 0.2 percentage points from January. The Spring Festival holiday did not interrupt the positive effect of the \"stabilizing growth\" policy. Manufacturing production activity declined significantly in February, with the procurement index falling 1.2 percentage points from January to 48.0%. Raw material inventory and supplier distribution index also declined month-on-month. The Spring Festival holiday is the main factor affecting production activity. However, judging from the performance of specific industries, the Spring Festival holiday did not interrupt the positive effect of the \"stabilizing growth\" policy. On the one hand, demand in some raw material processing industries continued to improve. In February, the new order index for the non-ferrous metal smelting and processing industry and the metal products industry increased significantly by 14.8 and 27.5 percentage points respectively. On the other hand, the equipment manufacturing industry showed signs of \"active replenishment\". In February, the ex-factory price and new order index of special equipment and general equipment manufacturing industries rose together; in the context of demand and prices jointly increasing industrial profits, special equipment and general equipment manufacturing prices increased in February. The finished goods inventory index of the general equipment industry increased by 3.0 and 7.8 percentage points respectively. Since last year, the \"steady growth\" policy has been actively implemented from various aspects such as projects and funds. Investment is poised for development during the year, and the prosperity of the equipment manufacturing and raw material processing industries is expected to be further boosted. The non-manufacturing PMI index continued to rise in February. The non-manufacturing PMI index reached 51.4% in February, continuing to increase by 0.7 percentage points from January. From the demand side, the new orders index in February was 46.8%, down 0.8 percentage points from January. External demand has picked up, with the new export orders index reaching 47.3%, up 2.1 percentage points from January. The Spring Festival holiday has an impact on non-manufacturing supply efficiency. In February, the non-manufacturing employment index reached 47.0%, the same as in January, still below the boom-bust line; the supplier distribution index reached 50.3%, down 1.7 percentage points from January. Risk warning: Overseas inflation resilience exceeds expectations; uncertainty in geopolitical relations.', 'authorid': UUID('64fe4936-93fb-5012-8030-63d18f4c6df2'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9593274369835854, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'CBO13F3OB3MSUO7E2NQRBGJCJBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:19 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'CBO13F3OB3MSUO7E2NQRBGJCJBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('97cdd353-26f6-5cfe-a5c5-b8a9e0a53153'), 'title': 'PMI Divergence Again: Information in the Noise', 'author': 'Tao Chuan', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQDBv96apIUd4doLJhkCqx0c=', 'researcher': '陶川', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQDBv96apIUd4doLJhkCqx0c=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624830392_1.pdf?1709303353000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624830392_1.pdf?1709303353000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'PMI Divergence Again: Information in the Noise', 'originalAuthor': '陶川', 'originalContent': '中采PMI与财新PMI的同日陆续“官宣”并不常见，虽然这次两大PMI都跑赢了季节性（分别位于图1和图2中虚线的右上方），但是各自传达的消息似乎有些“矛盾”——官方PMI环比向下、而财新PMI环比向上；官方PMI位于荣枯线之下、而财新PMI位于荣枯线之上。两大PMI产生背离的情况已持续4个月之久，这次到底该听谁？其实这次两大PMI的环比变动情况，也基本符合“春节效应”的历史规律。我们认为表现均强于季节性的两大PMI验证了“开门红”的成色并不弱，不过更能代表宏观运行态势的官方PMI也说明了经济运行中仍存在一些结构性问题（譬如降幅略超季节性的生产）。随着政策“组合拳”效应逐步显现，这些结构性问题也将被逐一解决。从异同之处，解背离之惑。如何从官方PMI和财新PMI的异同点，解答两大指标的背离？市场上对于解释官方PMI和财新PMI的背离有三种主流假说：（1）样本企业类型假说：官方PMI的调查企业以大中型央企、国企为主，而财新PMI以中小型民企为主；（2）样本企业范围假说：官方PMI所调查的企业覆盖全国，而财新PMI所调查的企业更多集中在东部沿海地区，因此可能财新PMI更易受到来自于出口的“扰动”；（3）调查时间假说：官方PMI是在每月的20-25号展开调查，而财新PMI是每月中旬，因此月内工业运行情况的转变也可能导致两大PMI的背离。经过对数据的观察，我们认为仅有第三个假说可以更好地对两大指标的背离进行解释，具体来看：样本企业类型假说：与主流观点相背？揭开财新PMI的“面纱”。比起私营企业，财新PMI走势与国有控股企业工业增加值增速走势更为接近。着眼财新PMI与不同规模企业PMI之间的相关性，可以发现企业规模越大，与财新PMI的相关性也就越大。因此，财新PMI更能代表中小型民企景气度并非“板上钉钉之事”。不过值得注意的是，近期财新PMI与大型企业的相关性正在减弱。究其原因，我们认为可能是由于2022年6月财新PMI出现大幅度样本扩容，更大的样本或一定程度上增强了财新PMI的代表性，弱化了其在不同规模企业PMI之间的偏向。样本企业范围假说：财新PMI真是外贸的“代名词”吗？并不。从数据来看，相比于官方PMI，自2013年以来财新PMI与我国进出口贸易情况的确有更强的相关性——财新PMI与我国进出口金额同比增速的相关系数高于官方PMI。不过，这并不代表财新PMI一定与外贸走势相吻合。若用沿海12省市代表东部沿海地区，用其工业企业利润增速代表财新PMI；同时以全国工业企业利润增速代表官方PMI。若财新PMI更偏向于代表东部沿海企业经营情况，那么东部与全国工业利润增速差的走势应该和财新PMI与官方PMI之差的走势一致。结果显示，2019年之前财新PMI可能与外贸导向的沿海工业企业正处于“磨合期”——东部工业利润增速大于全国工业利润增速的情况下，财新PMI的表现并没有相应优于官方PMI。不过在2019年之后，这一情况有了改观：财新PMI与东部沿海地区工业企业利润增速比前期更“契合”了。但在2022年6月财新PMI样本大幅度扩容后，财新PMI与东部沿海地区工业企业利润的相关性又减弱了许多。不要小看2022年6月财新PMI样本扩容后带来的转变。同时，我们尝试从不同时期官方PMI、财新PMI分别与进出口增速的相关性这一角度入手、进行剖析，结果保持一致：（1）在2022年6月以前，进出口金额与财新PMI的相关性高于与官方PMI的相关性；（2）财新PMI与外贸的相关性，确实经历了“弱-强-弱”的三个阶段；（3）尤其是财新PMI自2022年6月扩容后，与进出口的相关性确实出现了大幅下降的现象。因此，用财新PMI去判断每月外贸形势，或许这套说辞已经“落伍”了。调查时间假说：“把脉”经济时间的不同，也许可以部分解释两大PMI的背离。“春节效应”其实就是解释调查时间论点的力证——我们以春节在2月的年份为样本，发现除夕的时间越前置，那么工业生产的季节性放缓也会“紧随其后”，导致调查时间靠前的财新PMI环比表现逊色于官方PMI。换句话说，除夕的时间越前置，那么官方PMI与财新PMI的环比变动之差就会越大。根据图8来看，2月官方PMI与财新PMI的环比变动情况基本符合这一历史规律。除了采样“网速”的差距，官方PMI与财新PMI的背后还有什么“干货”？由于官方PMI调查样本远多于财新PMI，所以在一定意义上更能代表全国整体宏观经济的运行态势。数据显示的确如此——官方PMI与实际GDP的相关性达0.70，而财新PMI与实际GDP的相关性仅为0.52。因此，或许我们可以将官方PMI视为宏观经济景气度的代表，而非财新PMI。财新PMI不等于中小型民营企业，不等于出口导向，那等于什么？或许财新PMI更代表一部分行业的景气度。根据财新官网，财新PMI是根据行业详细分类和公司用工规模、进行分层抽样法调查所得数据，因此或许财新PMI更侧重于表示用工规模更大的行业景气度。若我们用前五大用工行业的用电量代表工业制造业中的“工人密集型”行业景气度，可以发现财新PMI确实更与这类行业的景气度贴合一些。财新PMI与五大用工行业用电量同比之间的相关系数为0.40，略高于官方PMI的0.31。2月环比向上的财新PMI说明了确实有部分工业行业的景气度正在回升，但并非全部。总结来说，官方PMI更“宏观”，而财新PMI更“微观”。回到官方PMI本身，春节“噪音”下制造业的成色到底有几分？造成2月官方PMI环比下降的主因是生产，通过对比PMI生产指数环比变动和春节早晚的关系，可以看出2024年2月环比增速为-1.5pct的PMI生产指数表现在过去10余年中是偏弱的（位于图14中虚线的左下方）。再来看需求端，2月PMI新订单指数与前值持平，不过仍有61%的制造业企业反映市场需求不足（环比-1.1pct），扩需求政策有待进一步夯实。春节对小型企业的影响最大。春节之下，大中型企业似乎比小型企业更能“信手拈来”——2月大、中、小型企业PMI指数分别录得50.4%（环比0.0pct）、49.1%（环比0.2pct）、46.4%（环比-0.8pct），仅有小型企业景气度出现了下滑。春节期间小型企业的出口下滑幅度较大，2月小型企业的新出口订单指数环比下降7.1pct。这也验证了我们之前出口链可能更靠大型企业的去库存推进的观点。非制造业中，服务业“卷土重来”？2月建筑业PMI为53.5%（环比-0.4pct），取得了除2020年以外的历史同期最低值，10月底增发万亿国债所起到的提振作用似乎也有些“动力不足”了。结合今年以来新增专项债发行进度偏慢、建筑业复工偏缓的形势来看，我们认为建筑业的发力时间可能会来得慢一些，可能是经济发展的“后手棋”。与建筑业PMI的下降不同，2月服务业PMI环比增速为+0.9pct、录得51.0%，春节假期不俗的消费表现解释了2月服务业PMI的上升。风险提示：政策定力超预期；出口超预期萎缩；信贷投放量不及预期。', 'content': '中采PMI与财新PMI的同日陆续“官宣”并不常见，虽然这次两大PMI都跑赢了季节性（分别位于图1和图2中虚线的右上方），但是各自传达的消息似乎有些“矛盾”——官方PMI环比向下、而财新PMI环比向上；官方PMI位于荣枯线之下、而财新PMI位于荣枯线之上。两大PMI产生背离的情况已持续4个月之久，这次到底该听谁？其实这次两大PMI的环比变动情况，也基本符合“春节效应”的历史规律。我们认为表现均强于季节性的两大PMI验证了“开门红”的成色并不弱，不过更能代表宏观运行态势的官方PMI也说明了经济运行中仍存在一些结构性问题（譬如降幅略超季节性的生产）。随着政策“组合拳”效应逐步显现，这些结构性问题也将被逐一解决。从异同之处，解背离之惑。如何从官方PMI和财新PMI的异同点，解答两大指标的背离？市场上对于解释官方PMI和财新PMI的背离有三种主流假说：（1）样本企业类型假说：官方PMI的调查企业以大中型央企、国企为主，而财新PMI以中小型民企为主；（2）样本企业范围假说：官方PMI所调查的企业覆盖全国，而财新PMI所调查的企业更多集中在东部沿海地区，因此可能财新PMI更易受到来自于出口的“扰动”；（3）调查时间假说：官方PMI是在每月的20-25号展开调查，而财新PMI是每月中旬，因此月内工业运行情况的转变也可能导致两大PMI的背离。经过对数据的观察，我们认为仅有第三个假说可以更好地对两大指标的背离进行解释，具体来看：样本企业类型假说：与主流观点相背？揭开财新PMI的“面纱”。比起私营企业，财新PMI走势与国有控股企业工业增加值增速走势更为接近。着眼财新PMI与不同规模企业PMI之间的相关性，可以发现企业规模越大，与财新PMI的相关性也就越大。因此，财新PMI更能代表中小型民企景气度并非“板上钉钉之事”。不过值得注意的是，近期财新PMI与大型企业的相关性正在减弱。究其原因，我们认为可能是由于2022年6月财新PMI出现大幅度样本扩容，更大的样本或一定程度上增强了财新PMI的代表性，弱化了其在不同规模企业PMI之间的偏向。样本企业范围假说：财新PMI真是外贸的“代名词”吗？并不。从数据来看，相比于官方PMI，自2013年以来财新PMI与我国进出口贸易情况的确有更强的相关性——财新PMI与我国进出口金额同比增速的相关系数高于官方PMI。不过，这并不代表财新PMI一定与外贸走势相吻合。若用沿海12省市代表东部沿海地区，用其工业企业利润增速代表财新PMI；同时以全国工业企业利润增速代表官方PMI。若财新PMI更偏向于代表东部沿海企业经营情况，那么东部与全国工业利润增速差的走势应该和财新PMI与官方PMI之差的走势一致。结果显示，2019年之前财新PMI可能与外贸导向的沿海工业企业正处于“磨合期”——东部工业利润增速大于全国工业利润增速的情况下，财新PMI的表现并没有相应优于官方PMI。不过在2019年之后，这一情况有了改观：财新PMI与东部沿海地区工业企业利润增速比前期更“契合”了。但在2022年6月财新PMI样本大幅度扩容后，财新PMI与东部沿海地区工业企业利润的相关性又减弱了许多。不要小看2022年6月财新PMI样本扩容后带来的转变。同时，我们尝试从不同时期官方PMI、财新PMI分别与进出口增速的相关性这一角度入手、进行剖析，结果保持一致：（1）在2022年6月以前，进出口金额与财新PMI的相关性高于与官方PMI的相关性；（2）财新PMI与外贸的相关性，确实经历了“弱-强-弱”的三个阶段；（3）尤其是财新PMI自2022年6月扩容后，与进出口的相关性确实出现了大幅下降的现象。因此，用财新PMI去判断每月外贸形势，或许这套说辞已经“落伍”了。调查时间假说：“把脉”经济时间的不同，也许可以部分解释两大PMI的背离。“春节效应”其实就是解释调查时间论点的力证——我们以春节在2月的年份为样本，发现除夕的时间越前置，那么工业生产的季节性放缓也会“紧随其后”，导致调查时间靠前的财新PMI环比表现逊色于官方PMI。换句话说，除夕的时间越前置，那么官方PMI与财新PMI的环比变动之差就会越大。根据图8来看，2月官方PMI与财新PMI的环比变动情况基本符合这一历史规律。除了采样“网速”的差距，官方PMI与财新PMI的背后还有什么“干货”？由于官方PMI调查样本远多于财新PMI，所以在一定意义上更能代表全国整体宏观经济的运行态势。数据显示的确如此——官方PMI与实际GDP的相关性达0.70，而财新PMI与实际GDP的相关性仅为0.52。因此，或许我们可以将官方PMI视为宏观经济景气度的代表，而非财新PMI。财新PMI不等于中小型民营企业，不等于出口导向，那等于什么？或许财新PMI更代表一部分行业的景气度。根据财新官网，财新PMI是根据行业详细分类和公司用工规模、进行分层抽样法调查所得数据，因此或许财新PMI更侧重于表示用工规模更大的行业景气度。若我们用前五大用工行业的用电量代表工业制造业中的“工人密集型”行业景气度，可以发现财新PMI确实更与这类行业的景气度贴合一些。财新PMI与五大用工行业用电量同比之间的相关系数为0.40，略高于官方PMI的0.31。2月环比向上的财新PMI说明了确实有部分工业行业的景气度正在回升，但并非全部。总结来说，官方PMI更“宏观”，而财新PMI更“微观”。回到官方PMI本身，春节“噪音”下制造业的成色到底有几分？造成2月官方PMI环比下降的主因是生产，通过对比PMI生产指数环比变动和春节早晚的关系，可以看出2024年2月环比增速为-1.5pct的PMI生产指数表现在过去10余年中是偏弱的（位于图14中虚线的左下方）。再来看需求端，2月PMI���订单指数与前值持平，不过仍有61%的制造业企业反映市场需求不足（环比-1.1pct），扩需求政策有待进一步夯实。春节对小型企业的影响最大。春节之下，大中型企业似乎比小型企业更能“信手拈来”——2月大、中、小型企业PMI指数分别录得50.4%（环比0.0pct）、49.1%（环比0.2pct）、46.4%（环比-0.8pct），仅有小型企业景气度出现了下滑。春节期间小型企业的出口下滑幅度较大，2月小型企业的新出口订单指数环比下降7.1pct。这也验证了我们之前出口链可能更靠大型企业的去库存推进的观点。非制造业中，服务业“卷土重来”？2月建筑业PMI为53.5%（环比-0.4pct），取得了除2020年以外的历史同期最低值，10月底增发万亿国债所起到的提振作用似乎也有些“动力不足”了。结合今年以来新增专项债发行进度偏慢、建筑业复工偏缓的形势来看，我们认为建筑业的发力时间可能会来得慢一些，可能是经济发展的“后手棋”。与建筑业PMI的下降不同，2月服务业PMI环比增速为+0.9pct、录得51.0%，春节假期不俗的消费表现解释了2月服务业PMI的上升。风险提示：政策定力超预期；出口超预期萎缩；信贷投放量不及预期。', 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'2024年2月全球股市普涨，其中恒生科技、沪深300、日经225表现出色，月度涨幅分别达14.2%、9.4%、7.9%。2024年2月恒生行业全线录得上涨，其中非必需性消费业、工业、医疗保健业表现出色，月度涨幅分别达16.6%、11.5%、11.5%。2024年2月港股IPO市场暂无新股上市，仅有两只小型新股于2月29日启动招股。2024年2月港股再融资方面，1月共计28家上市公司公告增发配股，预计募集金额约10.4亿港元，行业分布主要集中在消费、能源及建筑。美国经济保持韧性，就业数据延续回暖。1月美国制造业PMI录得49.1，较前值47.1延续回升；美国劳动力市场延续升温，1月美国新增非农就业录得35.3万人，较前值33.3万人边际提升，失业率录得3.7%持平上月。美国通胀粘性凸显，美联储降息预期延后。1月美国CPI同比增速录得3.1%，预期值2.9%，前值3.4%，核心CPI同比增速为3.9%，高于预期值3.7%，持平于前值3.9%。在美国经济韧性和通胀具有一定粘性，尤其是住宅通胀仍偏高之下，美联储降通胀压力仍存，市场对于美联储3月降息预期推后，美债收益率近期回升至4.26%。春节期间消费结构性修复：出行旅游、观影表现出色，免税消费量增价减，地产表现仍偏弱，物价低位运行。（1）春节期间出行旅游、观影消费亮眼，免税消费量增价减。出行方面，2024/2/5-2024/2/15期间全社会跨区域人员流动量累计达28.4亿人次，较2023年春节同期增长14.3%。观影方面，截至2024/2/21，春节观影约2亿人次，票房达94.6亿元。免税消费方面，假期前7日，海南离岛免税购物金额达22.14亿元，同比增长41%，人均消费8235元，同比下降17%。（2）春节期间地产表现仍偏弱。整体节奏表现为节前快降，节后慢增。节前5日30大中城市商品房成交面积录得17.8万平方米，低于2023年的38.99万平方米；节后10日录得14.55万平方米，低于2023年的33.91万平方米。（3）物价维持低位运行。受春节时间错位影响，1月CPI同比下降0.8%，低于前值-0.3%及预期值-0.64%；同时受去年同期低基数影响，1月PPI同比下降2.5%，较前���-2.7%及预期值-2.52%降幅有所收窄。美国经济保持韧性和通胀粘性之下，市场对美联储3月降息预期延后，美债收益率回升。截至2月23日，10Y美债收益率回升至4.26%，较月初回升近40BP。本轮长端美债收益率持续回升，海外高利率强美元环境延续，市场对于2024年3月美联储降息预期普遍推后，伴随1月美国非农就业数据延续改善、通胀超预期反弹尤其是住宅通胀仍然偏高，短端来看美联储降通胀压力仍存，同时受大选影响，美联储货币政策取向更为审慎，降息时点不确定性增大。2月16日OpenAI发布首个视频生成模型Sora，本次Sora的发布意味着AI在视频技术领域取得突破性进展。随着AI在多模态领域陆续实现飞跃式发展，相关领域及产业在带动下也将迎来深度变革。我们预计2024年以AI为核心的众多相关产业有望被带动。此外，两会召开在即有望释放更多政策利好，当前港股估值处于历史低位，值得关注。国务院副总理何立峰：加大对优质上市公司支持力度。1月29日，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰在京出席部署走访上市公司工作、推动上市公司高质量发展全国视频会议。何立峰强调，各相关地方、部门要通过调研认真解决上市公司发展中面临的具体困难和问题，加大对优质上市公司支持力度，以推动上市公司高质量发展助力信心提振、资本市场稳定和经济高质量发展。国务院国资委召开中央企业人工智能专题推进会。2月19日，国务院国资委召开“AI赋能产业焕新”中央企业人工智能专题推进会。会议强调，中央企业要把发展人工智能放在全局工作中统筹谋划，深入推进产业焕新，加快布局和发展智能产业。要夯实发展基础底座，把主要资源集中投入到最需要、最有优势的领域，加快建设一批智能算力中心，进一步深化开放合作，更好发挥跨央企协同创新平台作用。香港楼市14年后再次进入“零辣招”时代。2月28日，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波在香港特区政府立法会综合大楼会议厅发表2024/2025财政年度特区政府财政预算案，其中关于香港楼市的新政策引发市场高度关注。陈茂波表示，经审慎考虑当前的整体情况后，特区政府决定即日起撤销所有住宅物业需求管理措施，即由今天起所有住宅物业交易无须再缴付额外印花税、买家印花税和新住宅印花税。', 'content': 'In February 2024, global stock markets generally rose. Among them, Hang Seng Technology, CSI 300, and Nikkei 225 performed well, with monthly increases of 14.2%, 9.4%, and 7.9% respectively. In February 2024, all Hang Seng industries recorded increases, among which the consumer discretionary industry, industrial industry, and medical care industry performed well, with monthly increases of 16.6%, 11.5%, and 11.5% respectively. There are no new shares listed in the Hong Kong IPO market in February 2024, and only two small new shares launched their IPOs on February 29. In terms of refinancing of Hong Kong stocks in February 2024, a total of 28 listed companies announced additional rights issues in January, with an estimated raised amount of approximately HK$1.04 billion. The industry distribution is mainly concentrated in consumption, energy and construction. The U.S. economy remains resilient and employment data continues to recover. In January, the U.S. manufacturing PMI recorded 49.1, continuing to rebound from the previous value of 47.1; the U.S. labor market continued to heat up, with 353,000 new non-farm jobs in the United States in January, a marginal increase from the previous value of 333,000, and the unemployment rate recorded 353,000. 3.7% remained unchanged from the previous month. The stickiness of U.S. inflation is highlighted, and the Fed\\'s expected rate cut is postponed. In January, the U.S. CPI recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 3.1%, which was 2.9% expected and the previous value of 3.4%. The core CPI growth rate was 3.9% year-on-year, which was higher than the expected value of 3.7% and unchanged from the previous value of 3.9%. As the U.S. economy is resilient and inflation is relatively sticky, especially with residential inflation still on the high side, pressure from the Federal Reserve to lower inflation remains. Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March have been pushed back, and U.S. bond yields have recently risen to 4.26%. During the Spring Festival, the consumption structure was restored: travel and movie viewing performed well, duty-free consumption increased and prices decreased, real estate performance remained weak, and prices remained low. (1) During the Spring Festival, the consumption of traveling and watching movies is eye-catching, and the tax-free consumption increases and the price decreases. In terms of travel, the total number of cross-regional personnel movements in society from 2024/2/5 to 2024/2/15 reached 2.84 billion, an increase of 14.3% compared with the same period during the Spring Festival in 2023. In terms of movie viewing, as of February 21, 2024, approximately 200 million people watched movies during the Spring Festival, and the box office reached 9.46 billion yuan. In terms of duty-free consumption, in the seven days before the holiday, the amount of duty-free shopping on Hainan\\'s outlying islands reached 2.214 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41%, and per capita consumption was 8,235 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17%. (2) The performance of real estate during the Spring Festival is still weak. The overall rhythm shows a rapid decrease before the festival and a slow increase after the festival. On the 5th day before the holiday, the transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bcommercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was recorded at 178,000 square meters, down from 389,900 square meters in 2023; on the 10th day after the holiday, the transaction area was 145,500 square meters, down from 339,100 square meters in 2023. (3) Prices remain low. Affected by the misalignment of the Spring Festival, the CPI in January fell by 0.8% year-on-year, which was lower than the previous value of -0.3% and the expected value of -0.64%. At the same time, affected by the low base in the same period last year, the PPI in January fell by 2.5% year-on-year, which was -2.7% from the previous value. And the expected value -2.52% decline has narrowed. With the U.S. economy remaining resilient and inflation sticky, the market\\'s expectations for a March interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have been postponed, and U.S. bond yields have risen. As of February 23, the yield on 10Y U.S. Treasury bonds rose back to 4.26%, an increase of nearly 40BP from the beginning of the month. This round of long-term U.S. bond yields continues to rise, and the overseas high interest rate and strong dollar environment continues. The market has generally pushed back expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in March 2024. With the continued improvement of U.S. non-farm employment data in January, inflation has rebounded beyond expectations, especially in residential housing. Inflation is still on the high side, and in the short term there is still pressure from the Federal Reserve to lower inflation. At the same time, affected by the election, the Federal Reserve\\'s monetary policy orientation has become more prudent, and the uncertainty about the timing of interest rate cuts has increased. On February 16, OpenAI released its first video generation model, Sora. The release of Sora means that AI has made breakthrough progress in the field of video technology. As AI continues to achieve rapid development in the multi-modal field, related fields and industries will also usher in profound changes. We predict that many related industries with AI as the core are expected to be driven in 2024. In addition, the upcoming two sessions are expected to release more policy benefits. The current valuation of Hong Kong stocks is at a historically low level and deserves attention. Vice Premier of the State Council He Lifeng: Increase support for high-quality listed companies. On January 29, He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, attended a national video conference in Beijing to arrange visits to listed companies and promote the high-quality development of listed companies. He Lifeng emphasized that all relevant localities and departments should conscientiously solve the specific difficulties and problems faced by listed companies in the development through research and increase support for high-quality listed companies, so as to promote the high-quality development of listed companies and help boost confidence, capital market stability and economic development. High quality development. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a special promotion meeting on artificial intelligence for central enterprises. On February 19, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a special promotion meeting on artificial intelligence for central enterprises called \"AI Empowering Industry Renewal\". The meeting emphasized that central enterprises should put the development of artificial intelligence into overall planning and overall planning, deeply promote industrial renewal, and accelerate the layout and development of intelligent industries. It is necessary to consolidate the basic foundation for development, concentrate major resources on the areas of greatest need and advantage, accelerate the construction of a number of intelligent computing centers, further deepen open cooperation, and better play the role of a collaborative innovation platform across central enterprises. After 14 years, the Hong Kong property market has once again entered the era of \"zero hot tricks\". On February 28, the Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, Paul Chan Mo-po, delivered the 2024/2025 fiscal year budget of the Special Administrative Region Government in the conference hall of the Legislative Council Complex of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government. The new policies regarding the Hong Kong property market attracted great attention from the market. Chan Mo-po said that after careful consideration of the current overall situation, the SAR government has decided to revoke all residential property demand management measures with immediate effect. That is, all residential property transactions will no longer need to pay additional stamp duty, buyer\\'s stamp duty and new residential stamp duty from today.', 'authorid': UUID('0a68eb57-c88a-5f34-9e9d-27f85e68af4f'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9168523587286472, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TMRN6IED2VOOQN19FK3M2EBQGFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:25 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TMRN6IED2VOOQN19FK3M2EBQGFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('68215053-53ff-54c9-91ee-a95a95636fa5'), 'title': 'Macro monthly report: February 2024: China’s Spring Festival consumption heats up, March focuses on the two sessions, overseas inflation may cool down or encounter obstacles', 'author': 'Cui Li, Xie Xuan, Yan Huiting', 'orgName': '建银国际证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80101867', 'orgSName': '建银国际证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQMGHIz43htEOhq/kPDuU7iQ=', 'researcher': '崔历,谢炫,严惠婷', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000301842', '11000428939', '11000444650'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQMGHIz43htEOhq/kPDuU7iQ=', 'site': 'CCB International Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '建银国际证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624830220_1.pdf?1709305420000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624830220_1.pdf?1709305420000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro monthly report: February 2024: China’s Spring Festival consumption heats up, March focuses on the two sessions, overseas inflation may cool down or encounter obstacles', 'originalAuthor': '崔历,谢炫,严惠婷', 'originalContent': '发达国家降通胀进程预计放缓，欧美央行对降息谨慎，日本央行预计将逐步退出宽松：美国经济短期增长动能仍较强劲，通胀可能超预期。市场对联储年内降息的预期调整带动利率走高，符合我们年初预期。地缘政治风险和美国经济坚挺下降通胀进程预计放慢，但美国商业地产的风险使联储难以再次加息。我们维持联储在3季度和4季度各降息25个基点的预测。预计2年和10年美国债利率3月的交易区间为4.4%-4.8%和4.0%-4.4%。下半年随降息推进预计小幅回落。欧洲央行也将关注通胀风险，难以短期转向。3月的薪资谈判将影响日本走出通缩的进程，预计日本央行将逐步退出负利率。国内春节消费走强，增强复苏信心，聚焦两会：春节长假期间旅游出行及生活服务等活动消费快速增长。节后生产总体保持复苏势头，地产交易二手房回暖快过新房，预示需求有所抬头。关注即将召开的两会，预计将延续中央经济会议精神，突出消费投资并举，产业升级和防范风险等主题，宏观取态保持支持。我们预计24年增长目标将保持在5%左右，财政支出提速。美元周期回落有利新兴市场资金流，点心债融资预计继续回升：降息预期的减弱推动美国和其他国家的利差走阔，美元指数反弹。但预计降息周期的开启将推动美元下半年下行。新兴市场资金受债市带动回流。随着中国经济持续复苏，人民币汇率有望小幅走高。中美利差持续下预计中资美元债存量仍将收缩，点心债发行年后将持续增加。下月市场焦点：国际方面，需要关注欧美国家通胀及就业数据，央行议息会议。国内方面，关注经济活动高频数据，及即将召开的两会。', 'content': \"The process of reducing inflation in developed countries is expected to slow down, European and American central banks are cautious about cutting interest rates, and the Bank of Japan is expected to gradually withdraw from easing: the short-term growth momentum of the U.S. economy is still strong, and inflation may exceed expectations. The market's adjustment in expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the year has driven interest rates higher, in line with our expectations at the beginning of the year. Geopolitical risks and a strong U.S. economy are expected to slow down the inflation process, but risks in U.S. commercial real estate make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again. We maintain our forecast for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in the third quarter and fourth quarter. The 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond rates are expected to trade in March trading ranges of 4.4%-4.8% and 4.0%-4.4%. It is expected to fall slightly in the second half of the year as interest rate cuts advance. The European Central Bank will also pay attention to inflation risks and it will be difficult to turn around in the short term. The salary negotiations in March will affect Japan's process of emerging from deflation, and the Bank of Japan is expected to gradually exit negative interest rates. Domestic consumption during the Spring Festival strengthened, boosting confidence in recovery, focusing on the two sessions: consumption in activities such as travel and daily life services increased rapidly during the Spring Festival holiday. Post-holiday production has generally maintained a recovery momentum, and real estate transactions for second-hand houses have picked up faster than new houses, indicating an increase in demand. Pay attention to the upcoming two sessions, which are expected to continue the spirit of the Central Economic Conference and highlight themes such as simultaneous consumption and investment, industrial upgrading and risk prevention, and the macro stance remains supportive. We expect that the growth target for 2024 will remain around 5%, and fiscal spending will accelerate. The U.S. dollar's cyclical decline is beneficial to emerging market capital flows, and dim sum bond financing is expected to continue to rebound: the weakening of interest rate cut expectations has pushed interest rate differentials between the U.S. and other countries to widen, and the U.S. dollar index has rebounded. However, it is expected that the start of the interest rate cutting cycle will push the dollar downward in the second half of the year. Emerging market funds are driven back by the bond market. As China's economy continues to recover, the RMB exchange rate is expected to rise slightly. As the interest rate gap between China and the United States continues, it is expected that the stock of Chinese dollar bonds will continue to shrink, and dim sum bonds will continue to increase after the issuance of this year. Market focus next month: Internationally, we need to pay attention to inflation and employment data in European and American countries, and central bank interest rate meetings. Domestically, focus on high-frequency data on economic activities and the upcoming two sessions.\", 'authorid': UUID('9eea1d13-d55b-5c56-9080-34e9fbc2e1fc'), 'sentimentScore': 0.2993786931037903, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'A55TQGIHNQA4LFHQBCS16V14TRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:28 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'A55TQGIHNQA4LFHQBCS16V14TRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ef30ee5c-9faf-5a8b-9076-17e8516d8678'), 'title': 'Manufacturing PMI analysis in February: There are three improvements and two contradictions', 'author': 'clever', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQKkl+0qvFD4AD3uNovBIYR0=', 'researcher': '高明', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000262937'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQKkl+0qvFD4AD3uNovBIYR0=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624827548_1.pdf?1709300778000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624827548_1.pdf?1709300778000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Manufacturing PMI analysis in February: There are three improvements and two contradictions', 'originalAuthor': '高明', 'originalContent': '事件：2月中采制造业PMI为49.1%（前值49.2%），延续2023Q4以来的收缩状态；但2月财新中国制造业PMI加速至50.9%（前值50.8%），连续4个月运行在临界值以上。2月服务业PMI升至51.4%（前值50.7%），建筑业PMI回落至53.5%（前值53.9%）。中采与财新制造业PMI矛盾：中采样本更偏向国内企业、规模更大；财新样本更偏向沿海、规模更小。目前房地产市场持续调整；但出口增速已于2023Q4转正，同时春节消费有所恢复。出口新订单指数继续收缩，但美国制造业PMI已连续两个月扩张，中国出口增速已经于2023Q4实现转正，这一矛盾可能是转口或滞后所致，需要进一步观察。2月美国Markit制造业PMI升至51.5%，连续2个月维持扩张。欧元区制造业仍在收缩区间。中国制造业PMI的新出口订单指数降至46.3%（前值47.2%），进口指数46.4%（前值46.7%）。虽然中国制造业的出口新订单指数仍在继续收缩，但2023Q4美国利率见顶回落之后，美国销售增速已实现转正，美国库存增速也开始筑底；同期美国制造业PMI逐渐走出收缩区间，中国出口已经实现转正。制造业PMI出口新订单持续收缩与中国出口增速已实现转正之间的矛盾，可能是美国需求回升向中国出口订单传导过程中存在间接转口或滞后效应所致，可进一步关注。供需缺口短暂缓解：此前制造业PMI呈现生产指数持续扩张、新订单指数持续收缩的状态，这是PPI连续5个季度负增长的成因。2月生产指数降至49.8%（前值51.3%），首次转入收缩区间，可能与春节假期有关。而新订单指数维持49.0%（前值49.0%）。所以“有效需求不足、局部产能过剩”问题出现短暂缓解，这有助于促进价格指数回升。可以看到，2月制造业PMI出厂价指数也回升至48.1%（前值47.0%），收窄降幅。购进价涨幅回落，出厂价收窄降幅：2月出厂价指数回升至48.1%（前值47.0%），收窄降幅，原材料购进价指数回落至50.1%（前值50.4%），保持扩张。此前购进价扩张出厂价收缩的情况有所缓解，有利于企业盈利的修复。库存周期尚未启动，但政策持续加力、出口实现转正，有助于实现PPI转正。2月制造业PMI采购量指数、原材料库存和产成品库存指数都在收缩。在PPI转正之前，企业盈利预期修复有限，加库存周期不会全面启动。目前PPI已经连续5个季度负值，但逆周期调节政策逐渐加力（特别是2月5年期LPR调降25BP），出口增速已经在2023Q4实现转正，预计PPI将在2024Q3实现转正。', 'content': 'Event: China\\'s manufacturing PMI in February was 49.1% (previous value 49.2%), continuing the contraction since 2023Q4; however, Caixin China\\'s manufacturing PMI accelerated to 50.9% (previous value 50.8%) in February, continuing for four consecutive months operating above the critical value. In February, the service industry PMI rose to 51.4% (previous value: 50.7%), and the construction industry PMI fell to 53.5% (previous value: 53.9%). The manufacturing PMIs of China National Caixin and Caixin are contradictory: China National Caixin’s samples are more biased towards domestic companies and are larger in scale; Caixin’s samples are more biased towards coastal companies and are smaller in scale. The real estate market continues to adjust; however, export growth has turned positive in 2023Q4, and consumption during the Spring Festival has recovered. The new export orders index continues to shrink, but the U.S. manufacturing PMI has expanded for two consecutive months, and China\\'s export growth has turned positive in 2023Q4. This contradiction may be caused by re-exports or lags and requires further observation. The U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5% in February, maintaining expansion for two consecutive months. Eurozone manufacturing remains in contraction territory. The new export orders index of China\\'s manufacturing PMI fell to 46.3% (previous value 47.2%), and the import index fell to 46.4% (previous value 46.7%). Although the new export orders index of China\\'s manufacturing industry continues to shrink, after U.S. interest rates peaked and fell in Q4 of 2023, U.S. sales growth has turned positive and U.S. inventory growth has begun to bottom out; during the same period, the U.S. manufacturing PMI gradually came out of the contraction range. China\\'s exports have turned positive. The contradiction between the continued contraction of new export orders in the manufacturing PMI and China\\'s export growth has turned positive may be caused by the indirect re-export or lag effect in the transmission of rising demand from the United States to China\\'s export orders, which can be further paid attention to. The gap between supply and demand temporarily eased: Previously, the manufacturing PMI showed that the production index continued to expand and the new orders index continued to contract. This was the reason why the PPI had negative growth for five consecutive quarters. The production index fell to 49.8% in February (previous value was 51.3%), entering the contraction range for the first time, which may be related to the Spring Festival holiday. The new orders index remained at 49.0% (previous value 49.0%). Therefore, the problem of \"insufficient effective demand and local overcapacity\" has temporarily eased, which will help promote the recovery of the price index. It can be seen that the manufacturing PMI factory price index also rebounded to 48.1% in February (previous value 47.0%), narrowing the decline. The increase in purchase prices fell back, and the ex-factory price index narrowed its decline: the ex-factory price index rebounded to 48.1% in February (previous value 47.0%), narrowing the decline, and the raw material purchase price index fell back to 50.1% (previous value 50.4%), maintaining expansion. . The previous expansion in purchase prices and contraction in ex-factory prices have eased, which is conducive to the restoration of corporate profits. The inventory cycle has not yet started, but policies continue to intensify and exports turn positive, which will help achieve positive PPI. The manufacturing PMI purchasing volume index, raw material inventory and finished goods inventory index all shrank in February. Before PPI turns positive, the recovery of corporate profit expectations will be limited, and the inventory-adding cycle will not fully start. At present, PPI has been negative for 5 consecutive quarters, but countercyclical adjustment policies are gradually increasing (especially the 25BP reduction of the 5-year LPR in February). Export growth has turned positive in 2023Q4, and PPI is expected to turn positive in 2024Q3.', 'authorid': UUID('4c99e5c2-35f4-5a6e-b385-10f54e74e6aa'), 'sentimentScore': -0.826353557407856, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '5E2CKVG2J4KAI9SR6K5JNGELSJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:30 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '5E2CKVG2J4KAI9SR6K5JNGELSJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('614a39b2-b5ff-5f36-9368-e654c415cb24'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Research Weekly Report: The 5-year LPR is lowered by 25BP, and the Eurozone PMI is lower than expected', 'author': 'Ye Bin', 'orgName': '财信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000140', 'orgSName': '财信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQPNVuUTtp+2WziRkczFyM2g=', 'researcher': '叶彬', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000370137'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQPNVuUTtp+2WziRkczFyM2g=', 'site': 'Caixin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '财信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624823375_1.pdf?1709291899000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624823375_1.pdf?1709291899000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Research Weekly Report: The 5-year LPR is lowered by 25BP, and the Eurozone PMI is lower than expected', 'originalAuthor': '叶彬', 'originalContent': '本周观点：国内方面，2024年2月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布的贷款市场报价利率（LPR）显示，1年期LPR为3.45%，保持不变，而5年期以上LPR为3.95%，较上月下降了25个基点，5年期LPR调降符合预期，但调降幅度高于预期。此次调整是对2023年10月中央金融工作会议、2023年12月中央经济工作会议和2024年2月货币政策执行报告提出的“推动社会综合融资成本稳中有降”精神的落实。预计下一阶段宽松仍是货币政策主基调。对于个人住房贷款和企事业单位中长期贷款来说，这是一个重要的定价基准。因此，这次调整有望进一步提振信贷市场和房地产市场，降低企业和居民的财务成本，助力开年经济继续回升向好。总的来看，2月份LPR报价调降是对当前经济形势的积极回应，有助于稳定市场预期，提升市场信心。同时，这也反映出政策在保持稳健的基础上，加大了逆周期调节的力度，以更好地支持实体经济的发展。海外方面，美联储公布1月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）政策会议纪要。FOMC预计，在对通胀持续向2%迈进有更多信心之前，降低目标区间是不合适的。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，利率已经接近峰值，但认为3月降息不太可能。会议纪要显示，美联储工作人员认为，通胀问题的进一步进展可能需要比预期更长的时间，因此美联储短期内降息的概率有所下降。亚洲主要经济体之一韩国央行将基准利率维持在3.5%不变，符合市场预期。韩国央行行长表示，上半年降息的可能性仍然不大，同时认为全球货币政策分歧正在增加，无法确定韩国央行将在美联储之前或之后降息。欧元区2月制造业PMI初值46.1，为2个月以来新低，低于预期47，欧洲方面经济恢复进度仍需观察。总体来看，全球通胀水平尽管逐步从高位回落并趋稳，但是仍处于较高水平；经济数据整体向好，不过短期内会有反复，美联储降息周期的开启或需要等待更长时间。国内热点：一、1月份70城房价出炉。二、国务院国资委召开“AI赋能产业焕新”中央企业人工智能专题推进会。三、2月份LPR报价出炉。四、习近平主持召开中央财经委员会第四次会议。国际热点：一、欧元区2月制造业PMI初值46.1。二、韩国央行将基准利率维持在3.5%不变。三、美联储公布1月联邦公开市场委员会政策会议纪要。上周高频数据���踪：2月19日至2月23日，上证指数上涨4.85%，收报3004.88点；沪深300指数上涨3.71%，收报3489.74点；创业板指上涨1.81%，收报1758.19点。风险提示：国内政策超预期；欧美经济衰退风险加剧。', 'content': 'This week’s point of view: Domestically, on February 20, 2024, the loan market quotation rate (LPR) authorized by the National Interbank Funding Center to be published by the People’s Bank of China showed that the 1-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.45%, while the 5-year LPR remained unchanged. The above-term LPR was 3.95%, down 25 basis points from last month. The 5-year LPR cut was in line with expectations, but the magnitude of the cut was higher than expected. This adjustment is the implementation of the spirit of “promoting social comprehensive financing costs to stabilize while decreasing” proposed by the Central Financial Work Conference in October 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2023, and the Monetary Policy Implementation Report in February 2024. It is expected that easing will remain the main tone of monetary policy in the next stage. This is an important pricing benchmark for personal housing loans and medium and long-term loans for enterprises and institutions. Therefore, this adjustment is expected to further boost the credit market and real estate market, reduce the financial costs of enterprises and residents, and help the economy continue to rebound in the beginning of the year. Overall, the reduction in LPR quotations in February was a positive response to the current economic situation, which helped stabilize market expectations and enhance market confidence. At the same time, this also reflects that the policy has increased the intensity of countercyclical adjustments while maintaining a sound basis to better support the development of the real economy. Overseas, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting. The FOMC expects that it would be inappropriate to lower the target range until there is more confidence that inflation is sustainably heading toward 2%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said interest rates are close to their peak but believes a rate cut in March is unlikely. The minutes of the meeting showed that Fed staff believed that further progress in inflation may take longer than expected, so the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the short term has decreased. The Bank of Korea, one of Asia\\'s major economies, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%, in line with market expectations. The governor of the Bank of Korea said that the possibility of an interest rate cut in the first half of the year is still unlikely. He also believes that global monetary policy differences are increasing and cannot be sure that the Bank of Korea will cut interest rates before or after the Federal Reserve. The preliminary manufacturing PMI value of the Eurozone in February was 46.1, a new low in two months and lower than the expected 47. The progress of economic recovery in Europe still needs to be observed. Overall, although global inflation has gradually fallen from highs and stabilized, it is still at a high level; economic data is generally good, but there will be recurrences in the short term, and the start of the Fed\\'s interest rate cutting cycle may take longer. Domestic hot spots: 1. Housing prices in 70 cities in January were released. 2. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a special promotion meeting on artificial intelligence for central enterprises on \"AI Empowering Industry Renewal\". 3. The LPR quotation for February is released. 4. Xi Jinping presided over the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Committee. International hot spots: 1. The preliminary manufacturing PMI value of the Eurozone in February was 46.1. 2. The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%. 3. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the January Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting. High-frequency data tracking last week: From February 19 to February 23, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.85% to close at 3004.88 points; the CSI 300 Index rose 3.71% to close at 3489.74 points; the GEM Index rose 1.81% to close at 1758.19 points. Risk warning: Domestic policies have exceeded expectations; the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States has intensified.', 'authorid': UUID('4fda87f7-a5e2-53ab-b6c5-0b61d8c5eaae'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9498877953737974, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'D0KQ2N5JDCN005LTABHE0FUIQJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:33 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'D0KQ2N5JDCN005LTABHE0FUIQJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('08a7d0d5-51d1-583f-8852-afa4923617b4'), 'title': '2024 US Election Express (1): Trump’s advantage within the party continues to expand, and “Super Tuesday” is coming', 'author': 'Wei Wei, Zhou Chang', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQITxZPz0HYhbewC+M72YnCk=', 'researcher': '魏伟,周畅', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000191821', '11000443154'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQITxZPz0HYhbewC+M72YnCk=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624823377_1.pdf?1709292053000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624823377_1.pdf?1709292053000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '2024 US Election Express (1): Trump’s advantage within the party continues to expand, and “Super Tuesday” is coming', 'originalAuthor': '魏伟,周畅', 'originalContent': '摇摆州密歇根州初选进行中，特朗普党内优势不断扩大：当地2月27日，两党分别在密歇根州开启党内初选，拜登已赢得该州初选，而共和党在该州采取“混合模式”，该州55张选举票中16张将根据27日初选结果分配，仍有39张待3月2日该州共和党团会上才能决定。截至2月29日，特朗普在已结束的四场共和党初选中（爱荷华州、新罕布什尔州、内华达州、南卡罗来纳州）取得连胜，党内优势不断扩大。“超级星期二”来袭，看点在于特朗普是否可提前锁定党内胜局，最快预计3月12日即可获党内提名资格：3月5日美国大选将迎来“超级星期二”，美国大约三分之一的地区（包括16个州或海外领地）将同步举行初选，本次看点在于特朗普将获得的票数量，这将决定特朗普是否在3月12日即可获得党内竞选提名。根据共和党内竞选规则，获得总统提名需获得占总票数一半以上的票数（即总票数2429张中的1215票）。截至3月12日，总计开票票数为1366票，超总票数的一半。截至2月28日，特朗普已获110张选票，若其在3月2日至12日期间的初选中获得超1105票，则最快在3月12日即可获得共和党总统提名资格。密歇根州初选结果显示拜登竞选隐忧：伴随拜登在密歇根州初选的胜利，另一隐患也再次凸显：初选中“不表态”选项得票率排名第二，达13.8%，共计9.8万人，该项意为“支持民主党，但反对拜登”。根据Statista公布的数据，截至2019年底，该州阿拉伯裔人口达21万人，为阿拉伯裔集中所在州之一。本次初选中，密歇根州发起“倾听密歇根”运动，号召全州穆斯林选民投“不表态”，以督促拜登调整亲以立场。而密歇根州被视作美国总统选举关键“摇摆州”之一，是两党对决的重点区域，2016年特朗普以0.2%的微弱优势在该州击败希拉里，2020年拜登则以2.8%的优势险胜特朗普。此次密西根州初选再次暴露拜登政府在地缘问题上的处理不当，后续巴以冲突、俄乌冲突是否得以妥善处理将对选举结果产生影响。特朗普申请暂缓缴纳罚款的请求被拒，如何处理对后续竞选影响较大：当地时间2月28日，美国纽约上诉法院裁定，特朗普必须就其民事欺诈案缴纳全部4.5亿美元罚款，并拒绝其提出的缴纳1亿美元保释金以暂停民事欺诈案的请求，以及在上诉结束前暂缓缴纳罚款的请求。巨额罚款下特朗普竞选资金库面临“枯竭”。总统候选人募集资金主要通过两种方式：一是候选人竞选委员会，二是超级政治行动委员会（SuperPAC）。此前特朗普大部分的诉讼费用来自于SuperPAC，而此次“虚增财产”案件属于商业个人行为，联邦竞选法律禁止候选人动用竞选资金用于个人用途或与职位不相关的活动，因此特朗普难以通过SuperPAC支付相关罚款。整体来看，特朗普涉及的诽谤案、干涉选举案、封口费案、私藏机密文件案四项刑事案件诉讼审判穿插于大选进程之中，特朗普后续如何处理，或对其支持率产生较大影响。风险提示：1）国际地缘形势变化超预期；2）选情出现重大变数；3）海外经济衰退风险变化超预期；4）民调数据存在偏误。', 'content': 'The primary election in the swing state of Michigan is ongoing, and Trump\\'s advantage within the party continues to expand: On February 27, the two parties opened their own party primaries in Michigan. Biden has won the state\\'s primary, while the Republican Party has won the primary in the state. Adopting a \"hybrid model\", 16 of the state\\'s 55 electoral votes will be allocated based on the results of the primary election on the 27th, and there are still 39 to be decided at the state\\'s Republican caucus meeting on March 2. As of February 29, Trump has won consecutive victories in the four completed Republican primaries (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina), and his advantage within the party continues to expand. \"Super Tuesday\" is coming, and the focus is whether Trump can secure victory within the party in advance. He is expected to be eligible for the party nomination as soon as March 12: The US general election on March 5 will usher in \"Super Tuesday.\" About one-third of the United States (including 16 states or overseas territories) will hold primaries simultaneously. The focus this time is the number of votes Trump will receive, which will determine whether Trump will win on March 12. Can obtain party nomination for election. According to the rules of the Republican Party, winning the presidential nomination requires more than half of the total votes (i.e. 1,215 votes out of 2,429 total votes). As of March 12, the total number of votes cast was 1,366, more than half of the total number of votes cast. As of February 28, Trump has received 110 votes. If he receives more than 1,105 votes in the primaries between March 2 and 12, he will be eligible for the Republican presidential nomination as soon as March 12. . The results of the Michigan primary show that Biden\\'s campaign has hidden concerns: With Biden\\'s victory in the Michigan primary, another hidden danger has once again become apparent: the \"no statement\" option ranked second in the primary election, reaching 13.8%, with a total of 98,000 People, this item means \"support the Democratic Party, but oppose Biden.\" According to data released by Statista, as of the end of 2019, the state\\'s Arab population reached 210,000, making it one of the states with the largest concentration of Arabs. In this primary election, Michigan launched the \"Listen to Michigan\" campaign, calling on Muslim voters across the state to vote \"no stance\" to urge Biden to adjust his pro-Israel stance. Michigan is regarded as one of the key \"swing states\" in the U.S. presidential election and a key area for the showdown between the two parties. In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the state by a slim margin of 0.2%. In 2020, Biden won by 2.8%. % advantage over Trump. The Michigan primary election once again exposed the Biden administration\\'s improper handling of geopolitical issues. Whether the subsequent conflicts between Palestine and Israel and Russia and Ukraine can be properly handled will have an impact on the election results. Trump\\'s request to suspend the payment of fines was rejected. How to deal with it will have a greater impact on the subsequent campaign: On February 28, local time, the U.S. Court of Appeals in New York ruled that Trump must pay the entire $450 million fine in his civil fraud case. It also rejected its request to post a $100 million bail to stay the civil fraud case and to suspend the payment of fines until the appeal is completed. Trump’s campaign funds are facing “drying up” under the huge fine. There are two main ways to raise funds for presidential candidates: candidate campaign committees and super political action committees (SuperPACs). Most of Trump\\'s previous litigation expenses came from SuperPAC, but this \"inflated property\" case is a commercial and personal behavior. Federal campaign laws prohibit candidates from using campaign funds for personal purposes or activities unrelated to their positions. Therefore, it is particularly Trump has difficulty paying related fines through SuperPAC. Overall, the four criminal litigation trials involving Trump, including the defamation case, the election interference case, the hush money case, and the possession of confidential documents case, are interspersed with the election process. How Trump will deal with it in the future will affect his support rate. have a greater impact. Risk warning: 1) The international geopolitical situation changes more than expected; 2) There are major variables in the election; 3) The risk of overseas economic recession changes more than expected; 4) There are biases in the polling data.', 'authorid': UUID('34e7baf4-e205-5137-b5ef-d1ca6bacf118'), 'sentimentScore': 0.11350544355809689, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '69QLCUTIOCV7H9J9BKC2QBAP8JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:36 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '69QLCUTIOCV7H9J9BKC2QBAP8JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e0001cea-b328-5889-a79e-84cb0fca4f70'), 'title': \"Overseas tracking: Hong Kong's three major stock indexes fell slightly, with the semiconductor sector leading the gains\", 'author': 'Zhang Zhuoran', 'orgName': '川财证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000204', 'orgSName': '川财证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQH8XL/XKnIMCyBPHwK0oPro=', 'researcher': '张卓然', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000344834'], 'count': 13, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQH8XL/XKnIMCyBPHwK0oPro=', 'site': 'Chuancai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '川财证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624822444_1.pdf?1709290578000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624822444_1.pdf?1709290578000.pdf', 'originalTitle': \"Overseas tracking: Hong Kong's three major stock indexes fell slightly, with the semiconductor sector leading the gains\", 'originalAuthor': '张卓然', 'originalContent': '跟踪点评周三，美国三大主要股指全部下跌。道琼斯工业平均指数收于38949.02点，下跌0.06%；标普500指数收于5069.76点,下跌0.17%；纳斯达克综合指数收于15947.74点，下跌0.55%。行业方面，科技股多数下跌，谷歌下跌1.8%，亚马逊下跌0.68%；中概股多数下跌，百度下跌8.05%，小鹏汽车下跌6.93%。宏观方面，美国去年四季度个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数修增速为环比上涨1.8%，核心PCE物价指数修正增速为环比上涨2.1%，均高于预期和初值。从数据来看，美国通胀压力依然存在，美联储短期降息的预期进一步降温。美债方面，长短端美债收益率下跌，10年期美债收益率收于4.27%。周四，香港三大主要股指小幅回落。恒生指数收于16511.44点，下跌0.15%；恒生中国企业指数收于5677.88点，下跌0.19%；恒生香港中资企业指数收于3397.89点，下跌0.84%。恒生科技指数收3431.3点，上涨0.14%。行业方面，半导体、新能源板块涨幅居前，中创新航上涨13.18%，中芯国际上涨5.93%。政策要闻1.日本央行：委员高田创表示，日本经济正迎来重要拐点，即长期以来的“常态”——工资和物价不上涨的局面正在改变。他指出，价格目标终于有望在近期内实现。高田创进一步阐述，随着这一拐点的到来，日本央行需要考虑采取更为灵活的应对措施，其中可能包括逐步退出货币刺激措施。他同时强调，尽管日本央行的财务状况有所恶化，但这并不会影响央行货币政策的制定和执行。（观点网）公司动态1.百度：发布2023年第四季度及全年财报，显示2023年总营收达1346亿元，归属百度的净利润（non-GAAP）287亿元，同比大涨39%；四季度营收350亿元，归属百度的净利润（non-GAAP）78亿元，同比增速达44%。2023年，百度全年营收和利润均超市场预期。（财联社）2.赛富时：第四财季调整后每股收益2.29美元，分析师预期2.27美元；第四财季营收92.9亿美元，分析师预期92.2亿美元；第四财季订阅与支持部门营收87.5亿美元，分析师预期86.2亿美元；第四财季调整后运营利润率31.4％，分析师预期31.4%；预计第一财季营收91.2亿美元至91.7亿美元，分析师预期91.6亿美元；预计2025年营收377亿美元至380亿美元，分析师预期386.2亿美元。（财联社）风险提示：经济增长不及预期，贸易保护主义的蔓延，美联储政策超预期。', 'content': \"Tracking comments Wednesday, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 38949.02 points, down 0.06%; the S&P 500 closed at 5069.76 points, down 0.17%; the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 15947.74 points, down 0.55%. In terms of industry, most technology stocks fell, with Google falling 1.8% and Amazon falling 0.68%; most Chinese concept stocks fell, with Baidu falling 8.05% and Xpeng Motors falling 6.93%. On the macro front, the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in the fourth quarter of last year had a revised growth rate of 1.8% month-on-month, and the core PCE price index had a revised growth rate of 2.1% month-on-month, both higher than expectations and the initial value. Judging from the data, inflationary pressure in the United States still exists, and expectations of a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have further cooled. In terms of U.S. Treasuries, long- and short-term U.S. bond yields fell, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield closing at 4.27%. Hong Kong's three major stock indexes fell slightly on Thursday. The Hang Seng Index closed at 16511.44 points, down 0.15%; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed at 5677.88 points, down 0.19%; the Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index closed at 3397.89 points, down 0.84%. The Hang Seng Technology Index closed at 3431.3 points, up 0.14%. In terms of industry, the semiconductor and new energy sectors were among the top gainers, with Sino-Sino Aviation rising 13.18% and SMIC rising 5.93%. Policy News 1. Bank of Japan: Member Hajime Takada said that Japan’s economy is reaching an important turning point, that is, the long-term “normal” situation of not rising wages and prices is changing. He noted that the price target is finally expected to be achieved in the near term. Takada further elaborated that with the arrival of this turning point, the Bank of Japan needs to consider more flexible response measures, which may include gradually withdrawing monetary stimulus measures. He also emphasized that although the Bank of Japan's financial situation has deteriorated, this will not affect the formulation and implementation of the central bank's monetary policy. (Viewpoint.com) Company News 1. Baidu: Released its fourth quarter and full-year financial report for 2023, showing total revenue in 2023 reaching 134.6 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to Baidu (non-GAAP) 28.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39 %; revenue in the fourth quarter was 35 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to Baidu (non-GAAP) was 7.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 44%. In 2023, Baidu's full-year revenue and profit exceeded market expectations. (Financial Associated Press) 2. Salesforce: Adjusted earnings per share in the fourth quarter were US$2.29, analysts expected US$2.27; fourth-quarter revenue was US$9.29 billion, analysts expected US$9.22 billion; fourth-quarter revenue Subscription and support segment revenue was US$8.75 billion, analysts expected US$8.62 billion; fourth-quarter adjusted operating profit margin was 31.4%, analysts expected 31.4%; first-quarter revenue was expected to be US$9.12 billion to US$9.17 billion, Analysts expected US$9.16 billion; revenue in 2025 was expected to be US$37.7 billion to US$38 billion, while analysts expected US$38.62 billion. (Financial Associated Press) Risk warning: Economic growth is lower than expected, trade protectionism is spreading, and the Federal Reserve policy exceeds expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('eea00dcc-4efb-5c15-9c64-76c8aa8e4fdc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9650345896370709, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'QQ6G3M2SDQ4L0G5KAPRB9A3FJFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:39 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'QQ6G3M2SDQ4L0G5KAPRB9A3FJFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2314074d-a811-5f28-8619-093bc1c8b990'), 'title': 'LNG Market February Issue: Although the demand margin has improved, weak replenishment expectations drive the market downward', 'author': 'Li Zuzhi', 'orgName': '国投安信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066669', 'orgSName': '国投安信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQKYVkSWu0oZx/IJgz1K8qL0=', 'researcher': '李祖智', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000308432'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQKYVkSWu0oZx/IJgz1K8qL0=', 'site': 'SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投安信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624813753_1.pdf?1709305018000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624813753_1.pdf?1709305018000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'LNG Market February Issue: Although the demand margin has improved, weak replenishment expectations drive the market downward', 'originalAuthor': '李祖智', 'originalContent': '2月国际市场交易需求风险的平稳释放而进一步价格下行，当前价格水平下开始出现北美减产和欧洲需求的环比回升，基本面带来一定边际改善但难以扭转当前趋势，短期仍以偏弱运行为主。由于取暖季内需求整体偏低，欧美库存在近期仍处于历史偏高位置，补库预期上难有起色会使得市场更加强调即期现实，后续关注去库速度能否加快，以及北美市场在近期回落至绝对低位后，逐步震荡筑底的可能市场焦点：2月全球市场气温均较此前回归历史均值，城燃需求在近期有所坚挺，2月内各地去库速度略有加快。尽管基本面出现一定边际改善，但我们着到市场价格并未对此作出反应，进一步下行达到23年以来的低位水平。随着取暖李进入末尾，市场对于需求风险的担忧跌至谷底，当下库存水平的高低对市场情绪影响放大。短期来着，国际LNG供应的相对充裕使得欧洲涨价补库的动力较低，国际市场会继续维持弱势，关注持续低价后，美国进一步产量缩减和欧洲非城燃需求得到提振后，市场开始筑底的可能。', 'content': \"In February, the steady release of transaction demand risks in the international market led to further price declines. At the current price level, North American production cuts and European demand began to rebound. The fundamentals brought some marginal improvement, but it is difficult to reverse the current trend. In the short term, it will still operate weakly. host. Due to the overall low demand during the heating season, inventories in Europe and the United States are still at a historically high level in the near future. The difficulty in replenishing inventories is expected to make the market place more emphasis on immediate reality. Follow-up attention will be paid to whether the destocking speed can be accelerated, and the North American market in the near future. After falling back to an absolute low, the possible market focus of gradually fluctuating and bottoming out: in February, the global market temperature returned to the historical average compared with before, urban fuel demand has strengthened in the near future, and the destocking speed of various regions has accelerated slightly in February. Although there has been some marginal improvement in fundamentals, we see that market prices have not responded to this and have further fallen to a 23-year low. As Warming Plum enters its end, the market's concerns about demand risks have hit rock bottom, and the current level of inventory has amplified its impact on market sentiment. In the short term, the relative abundance of international LNG supply makes Europe less motivated to increase prices and replenish its inventory. The international market will continue to remain weak. After paying attention to the continued low prices, further production reductions in the United States and boosting non-urban fuel demand in Europe, the market The possibility of starting to build a bottom.\", 'authorid': UUID('45f2f71d-78af-5d06-a063-1327f9bdd25b'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7586062848567963, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'ESPPCQAJM04P6SPUSCA11195V7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:41 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'ESPPCQAJM04P6SPUSCA11195V7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f6eabab9-027f-5625-9e66-2a167a27e929'), 'title': 'Macro information tracking', 'author': 'Chen Li', 'orgName': '川财证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000204', 'orgSName': '川财证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQA83FUKIVfWwWNHbrOU/wyg=', 'researcher': '陈雳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000174919'], 'count': 13, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQA83FUKIVfWwWNHbrOU/wyg=', 'site': 'Chuancai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '川财证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624811922_1.pdf?1709288050000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624811922_1.pdf?1709288050000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro information tracking', 'originalAuthor': '陈雳', 'originalContent': '宏观政策中共中央政治局：要大力推进现代化产业体系建设加快发展新质生产力中共中央政治局2月29日召开会议，讨论国务院拟提请第十四届全国人民代表大会第二次会议审议的《政府工作报告》稿。会议指出，积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效，稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效，增强宏观政策取向一致性，营造稳定透明可预期的政策环境。要大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力。要深入实施科教兴国战略，着力扩大国内需求，坚定不移深化改革，扩大高水平对外开放，有效防范化解重点领域风险。（中国政府网）宏观动态国家统计局：2023年沪深交易所累计筹资比上年减少4375亿元国家统计局发布中华人民共和国2023年国民经济和社会发展统计公报显示，全年沪深交易所A股累计筹资10734亿元，比上年减少4375亿元。沪深交易所首次公开发行上市A股236只，筹资3418亿元，比上年减少2286亿元，其中科创板股票67只，筹资1439亿元；沪深交易所A股再融资(包括公开增发、定向增发、配股、优先股、可转债转股)7316亿元，减少2089亿元。北京证券交易所公开发行股票77只，筹资146亿元。（国家统计局）风险提示：宏观经济修复不及预期，出现严重信用事件，增量政策不及预期。', 'content': 'Macro-policy Politburo of the CPC Central Committee: We must vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerate the development of new-quality productive forces. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on February 29 to discuss the \"Government Plan\" proposed by the State Council for consideration at the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress. Work Report\" draft. The meeting pointed out that the proactive fiscal policy should be appropriately strengthened, improve quality and efficiency, and the prudent monetary policy should be flexible, appropriate, precise and effective, enhance the consistency of macro policy orientation, and create a stable, transparent and predictable policy environment. We must vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerate the development of new productive forces. We must thoroughly implement the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education, focus on expanding domestic demand, unswervingly deepen reforms, expand high-level opening up, and effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas. (Chinese Government Network) Macro Dynamics National Bureau of Statistics: The cumulative financing of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in 2023 decreased by 437.5 billion yuan compared with the previous year. The National Bureau of Statistics released the National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin of the People\\'s Republic of China in 2023, which showed that the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges throughout the year A-shares have raised a total of 1.0734 billion yuan, a decrease of 437.5 billion yuan from the previous year. There were 236 initial public offerings of A-shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, raising 341.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 228.6 billion yuan from the previous year, including 67 stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, raising 143.9 billion yuan; refinancing of A-shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges (including public Additional issuance, private placement, rights issue, preference shares, convertible bonds conversion) 731.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 208.9 billion yuan. The Beijing Stock Exchange publicly issued 77 stocks, raising 14.6 billion yuan. (National Bureau of Statistics) Risk warning: Macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, serious credit events occur, and incremental policies are less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('267e0858-7a39-5196-be76-43e80fed6dc6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.1417260244488716, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '2CB17QTLSLEIVL5G70UPC8DQJFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:44 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '2CB17QTLSLEIVL5G70UPC8DQJFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('562aea35-d5c4-53b8-a8fd-564e0bc95805'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic aggregate monthly report (February 2024)', 'author': 'Wang Xiao, Mao Lei, Qu Xinrong, Dai Lu, Tang Li', 'orgName': '国泰期货', 'orgCode': '80101065', 'orgSName': '国泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQP4jg4EE/dm7E5It7ZKAN58=', 'researcher': '王笑,毛磊,瞿新荣,戴璐,唐立', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259151', '11000218765', '11000437431', '11000431533', '11000417832'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQP4jg4EE/dm7E5It7ZKAN58=', 'site': 'Cathay Futures', 'originalSite': '国泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624811058_1.pdf?1709303448000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624811058_1.pdf?1709303448000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic aggregate monthly report (February 2024)', 'originalAuthor': '王笑,毛磊,瞿新荣,戴璐,唐立', 'originalContent': '报告导读：摘要：大类资产组合：前期A+H市场呈现超调，同时月初中债、美债性价比均不够高，商品配置中频CTA为了分散收益来源，且看好年中中美补库共振作为提前布局。月中10Y美债利率触达4.3%一带后美债长债配置价值凸显，因此加仓偏长久期的美债ETF TLT，通过规避美债短债来增强对于加息不确定性的应对，同时保留长端的观点。中债长债拥挤度较高，性价比偏低。周期定位：国内处于三周期分析框架下的第1阶段复苏期；海外仍处于三周期分析框架下的第4到第5个阶段的过渡。宏观君之见：1-2月为例行宏观数据发布清淡期，即使正常发布的PMI、通胀、金融等数据，也受到今年与去年春节时间错位的扰动，而加大了市场对后期宏观趋势判断的难度。从高频数据来看，新房销售依然偏弱，出行消费热度回升。自放开以来的宏观叙事似乎仍在延续。2月大类资产表现回顾：全球权益市场表现偏强，A股港股市场表现亮眼。在1月的强非农数据支撑下，美债收益率有所上行，同时中债10Y收益率小幅下行围绕2.4%一带进行波动。CME比特币期货表现强势。商品方面，生猪开始走强，铁矿回调较深。3月宏观展望：国内宏观边际改善难有明显证据，正如地产的需求短期难以显著改善，需要关注两会是否存在进一步的政策驱动。2月份海外宏观数据整体韧性，但市场仍然担心关键指标走弱和风险事件影响，整体宏观趋势性不强。风险提示：政策支持不及预期。', 'content': 'Report introduction: Summary: Major asset portfolios: The A+H market showed overshoot in the early stage. At the same time, the performance-price ratio of China Bonds and U.S. bonds at the beginning of the month was not high enough. The commodity allocation was mid-frequency CTA in order to diversify the sources of income, and we were optimistic about the replenishment resonance between China and the United States in the middle of the year. Lay out in advance. After the 10Y U.S. Treasury interest rate hit 4.3% in the middle of the month, the value of long-term U.S. bond allocation became more prominent. Therefore, the long-term U.S. bond ETF TLT increased its position by avoiding short-term U.S. bonds to enhance the response to the uncertainty of interest rate hikes. At the same time, Keep the long-end view. ChinaBond long-term bonds are highly crowded and have low cost performance. Cycle positioning: China is in the first stage of recovery under the three-cycle analysis framework; overseas is still in the transition from the fourth to fifth stages under the three-cycle analysis framework. Macro Opinion: January to February is a slow period for the release of routine macro data. Even the normally released PMI, inflation, financial and other data are disturbed by the time misalignment between this year’s Spring Festival and last year’s Spring Festival, which increases the market’s concern for later macro trends. Difficulty of judgment. Judging from high-frequency data, new home sales are still weak, and travel consumption is picking up. The macro narrative since liberalization appears to be continuing. Review of the performance of major asset classes in February: The global equity market performed strongly, and the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets performed well. Supported by strong non-agricultural data in January, U.S. bond yields rose, while ChinaBond 10Y yields fell slightly and fluctuated around 2.4%. CME Bitcoin futures performed strongly. In terms of commodities, live pigs have begun to strengthen, and iron ore has seen a deeper correction. March Macro Outlook: It is difficult to see clear evidence of domestic macro marginal improvement. Just as the demand for real estate is difficult to significantly improve in the short term, we need to pay attention to whether there are further policy drivers from the two sessions. Overseas macro data in February showed overall resilience, but the market is still worried about the weakening of key indicators and the impact of risk events, and the overall macro trend is not strong. Risk warning: Policy support is less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('9f7f5f5f-3c7c-59ef-b5f2-66e243404720'), 'sentimentScore': 0.23160399496555328, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'M5S2PBNTIKMJ0R200LNS5JR9BJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:46 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'M5S2PBNTIKMJ0R200LNS5JR9BJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7f8951e9-58f2-5f81-a9e5-febda706e183'), 'title': 'Thirty glorious years: The long run of interest rate debt is not over yet', 'author': 'Yang Weiji', 'orgName': '国元证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001043', 'orgSName': '国元证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQMR7NJJPF3fOECs5YCEvQeU=', 'researcher': '杨为敩', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000176619'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQMR7NJJPF3fOECs5YCEvQeU=', 'site': 'Guoyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国元证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624810921_1.pdf?1709286664000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624810921_1.pdf?1709286664000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Thirty glorious years: The long run of interest rate debt is not over yet', 'originalAuthor': '杨为敩', 'originalContent': '核心观点：1、相对于2016年的行情，这次债券市场的基本面因素占比略高：（1）最近一个季度内，资金系统发生了明显的流动性梗阻的现象，大量资金滞留在银行系统之内，因此，银行产生了大量的现券配置需求。（2）当然，这此中也伴随着杠杆和久期的增加，比如，银行对非银的债权增长速度达到了双位数11%，委外及类委外重新加速。2、这种流动性梗阻是非周期性的，因此，我们可能不能用周期或经验思维去判断未来的债市行情，但相对确定的是，在流动性梗阻化解之前，债券市场的牛市可能不会终结。3、两个可能化解流动性梗阻的政策及其对债市影响：（1）非常规的货币宽松，这会导致债券收益率在进一步急跌之后开始急涨；（2）用积极的信用政策推进银行信用下潜，这个有效性的前提一定是终止债券市场如此凌厉的牛市进程，通过去杠杆政策降低银行的机会成本。4、如今来看，这两类政策尚没有风声及实质性推进，因此，当前即使在行情的左侧，这个时间节点也不会离拐点太近，高杠杆长久期的进攻策略还是有效的。5、至于市场近期的降久期行为和期限利差的上升，也不完全是基于过平的收益率曲线而出现的主流策略的变化：（1）从R007看，货币政策最近两个月略有宽松，因此，最近市场的久期可能是跟着银行自营增量的配置盘降下来的；（2）这一次货币政策宽松的背景是去年四季度过紧的资金面，因此，这个宽松是修复性宽松，还是新一轮宽松趋势的启动，目前还尚待观察。6、但这个悬念不重要，如果货币政策还在常规状态，无论宽松与否，宽信用的可能性都很低，这时，对债市行情的差异就是“牛平”还是“牛陡”而已。7、但即使是“牛陡”，单纯从收益的角度来说，我们降久期也不合适：（1）短久期的下行幅度大概率弥补不了长久期的收益加成；（2）经验上看，长短品种走势的实质性分化从未发生过，即使在如此平的曲线形态下，这个形态也不会对长端品种产生行情上的压力。8、如果对行情反转非常警惕的话，可以适度注重一下持仓的流动性问题，若行情的反转来临，流动性下的最快的应该是30Y附近的超长期品种，因此，适当把部分30Y超长期券换仓到10Y附近的长期券就好，过度收缩久期并无必要。风险提示：货币政策宽松不及预期，宏观经济不及预期', 'content': 'Core points: 1. Compared with the market situation in 2016, the fundamental factors of the bond market account for a slightly higher proportion this time: (1) In the recent quarter, the capital system has experienced obvious liquidity obstruction, and a large amount of funds have been stranded in banks. Within the system, therefore, banks have generated a large amount of demand for cash bond allocation. (2) Of course, this is also accompanied by an increase in leverage and duration. For example, banks\\' claims on non-banks have grown at a double-digit rate of 11%, and outsourcing and similar outsourcing have accelerated again. 2. This kind of liquidity obstruction is non-cyclical. Therefore, we may not be able to use cyclical or empirical thinking to judge the future bond market. But it is relatively certain that before the liquidity obstruction is resolved, the bull market in the bond market may not continue. end. 3. Two policies that may resolve liquidity obstruction and their impact on the bond market: (1) Unconventional monetary easing, which will cause bond yields to start to rise sharply after a further sharp decline; (2) Use active credit policies The prerequisite for the effectiveness of promoting bank credit divestment is to end such a fierce bull market process in the bond market and reduce the opportunity cost of banks through deleveraging policies. 4. Looking at it now, there is no news or substantial advancement of these two types of policies. Therefore, even if it is on the left side of the market, this time node will not be too close to the turning point. The high-leverage long-term offensive strategy is still effective. 5. As for the market’s recent duration reduction behavior and the rise in term spreads, they are not entirely based on changes in mainstream strategies based on an over-flat yield curve: (1) Judging from R007, monetary policy has slightly changed in the past two months. There is easing, so the recent market duration may be due to the bank\\'s self-operated incremental allocation; (2) The background of this easing of monetary policy is the tight funding situation in the fourth quarter of last year. Therefore, this easing is It remains to be seen whether it will be restorative easing or the start of a new round of easing trend. 6. But this suspense is not important. If the monetary policy is still in the normal state, no matter whether it is loose or not, the possibility of credit easing is very low. At this time, the difference in the bond market is just \"bull flat\" or \"bull steep\" . 7. But even if it is \"bullish\", purely from the perspective of income, it is not appropriate for us to reduce the duration: (1) The downside of the short-term duration will most likely not be able to make up for the income bonus of the long-term period; (2) Experience It seems that the substantial differentiation of the trends of long-term and short-term varieties has never occurred. Even in such a flat curve form, this form will not exert market pressure on long-term varieties. 8. If you are very wary of a market reversal, you can pay some attention to the liquidity of your positions. If a market reversal comes, the fastest liquidity should be the ultra-long-term varieties near 30Y. Therefore, it is appropriate to put part of the 30Y Just switch from ultra-long-term bonds to long-term bonds near 10Y. There is no need to shrink the duration excessively. Risk warning: Monetary policy is less easing than expected, and macroeconomics is less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('6d968db3-be1e-5c47-a812-8f8784abf8e8'), 'sentimentScore': 0.20026090741157532, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'HAH58S1GTH21QBU8CIVTOIK8H3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:49 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'HAH58S1GTH21QBU8CIVTOIK8H3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1b43c8db-0747-588a-89af-4d84418aa2dc'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Weekly Report: Policy-led, stocks and bonds strengthen', 'author': 'Wei Zhichao, Cui Zihan, Huang Yuyang', 'orgName': '首创证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000122', 'orgSName': '首创证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQMrKdlA7x3YuVBViTFP0Syc=', 'researcher': '韦志超,崔紫涵,黄煜阳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000279539', '11000432131', '11000415933'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQMrKdlA7x3YuVBViTFP0Syc=', 'site': 'Capital Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '首创证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624793096_1.pdf?1709283250000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624793096_1.pdf?1709283250000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Weekly Report: Policy-led, stocks and bonds strengthen', 'originalAuthor': '韦志超,崔紫涵,黄煜阳', 'originalContent': '核心观点春节假期后市场延续强势，股债双牛，商品整体震荡。上证指数八连阳，并于上周五重返3000点。近期在政策的主导下，证监会“换帅”叠加增量资金入市，股市情绪明显高涨。上周万得全A、上证指数和沪深300分别累计上涨5.2%、4.8%和3.7%。在国外AI新模型问世的利好催化下，TMT板块走强，小盘股超跌后反弹动能更强，国证2000累计涨幅超8%。LPR超预期非对称降息，经济基本面延续弱势叠加节后资金面宽松，节后债市表现依旧强势，10年国债活跃券收益率上周累计下行超3.6BP。今年以来，增量资金多次入市，且加仓时机主要集中于股市低点。2月5日股市再创新低，当日场内ETF成交额大幅增加，同时在2月7日再度放量，稳定节前股市情绪。而节后的上周增量资金可能在陆续退出，股市的连续大涨可能更多源于自发效应。今年以来，A股核心指数中，大盘股相对小盘股明显表现更优，可能反映资金侧重对大盘股的支持，尤其是红利指数韧性较强，今年累计上涨12.8%。参考历史，上证指数8连涨的样本较少，2000年以来仅有15次，大多短期会有一定回撤。由于样本大多发生在前期已有明显上涨的牛市中，因此，整体均值走势来看，后续仍有8%的上涨空间。而本次上涨期开启之前股市明显超跌，与之类似的样本较少，仅有三次，短期内后续整体呈震荡走势。尽管LPR超预期非对称降息，但整体经济基本面仍处弱势，市场并未明显交易宽信用预期，更为反映债券相对贷款的比价效应。节后流动性宽松延续，同时降息预期仍在，节后债市表现依旧强势，同时整体短端表现更优，10年与1年期国债期限利差明显缩窄。1月数据显示整体经济基本面仍处弱势，PMI略有企稳，金融偏强但市场对其持续性有所怀疑，物价偏弱，2月高频数据显示经济延续平稳。地铁客运量基本恢复至春节前，国内外航班执飞量春节假期期间明显冲高后，目前基本维持高位震荡。然而，房地产销售依然不振。节后复工进度相对缓慢，石油沥青装置开工率仅小幅回升，高炉开工率延续下行，螺纹钢持续库存持续上升，表观需求量下滑。根据社融领先的规律，经济可能在短期内平稳，经济的明显好转仍然需要等待政策的变化，4月政治局会议是关键时点。由于利空因素在之前得到明显释放，加上政策强势，两会在即，短期市场再度大幅下跌的风险不大。本轮反弹与政策高度相关，上证已回到3000点，政策大幅加码的概率不高；经济基本面仍处弱势，市场大幅上涨的可能性也不大。策略上可以先止盈，观望并等待下次机会。风险提示：1）地产下行超预期；2）政策不及预期；3）海外扰动超预期。', 'content': 'Core view: The market continues to be strong after the Spring Festival holiday, with both stocks and bonds bullish and commodities as a whole experiencing shocks. The Shanghai Composite Index has posted eight consecutive positive gains and returned to 3,000 points last Friday. Recently, under the guidance of policies, the China Securities Regulatory Commission \"changed managers\" and incremental funds entered the market, the stock market sentiment has increased significantly. Last week, Wind Quan A, Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 rose by 5.2%, 4.8% and 3.7% respectively. Catalyzed by the emergence of new foreign AI models, the TMT sector has strengthened, and small-cap stocks have stronger rebound momentum after oversold. The National Securities 2000 has a cumulative increase of more than 8%. The LPR cut interest rates asymmetrically beyond expectations, economic fundamentals continued to be weak and funds were loose after the holiday. The bond market performance remained strong after the holiday. The yield on 10-year government bond active bonds fell by more than 3.6BP last week. Since the beginning of this year, incremental funds have entered the market many times, and the timing of adding positions is mainly concentrated at the lows of the stock market. The stock market reached a new low on February 5, and the trading volume of ETFs on the exchange increased significantly that day. At the same time, volume increased again on February 7, stabilizing the stock market sentiment before the holiday. Incremental funds may be withdrawing one after another last week after the holiday, and the continuous surge in the stock market may be more due to spontaneous effects. Since the beginning of this year, large-cap stocks have performed significantly better than small-cap stocks in the A-share core index, which may reflect the focus of funds on supporting large-cap stocks, especially the strong resilience of the dividend index, which has risen by 12.8% this year. Referring to history, there are few samples of the Shanghai Composite Index rising for 8 consecutive years, only 15 times since 2000, and most of them will have a certain retracement in the short term. Since most of the samples occurred in the bull market that had already risen significantly in the early stage, judging from the overall average trend, there is still room for an 8% increase in the future. Before the start of this rising period, the stock market was obviously oversold. There were only three similar samples, and the overall trend was volatile in the short term. Although the LPR cut interest rates more than expected and asymmetrically, the overall economic fundamentals are still weak, and the market has not significantly traded in wider credit expectations, which more reflects the price comparison effect of bonds relative to loans. Loose liquidity continued after the holiday, while interest rate cuts were still expected. The bond market performance remained strong after the holiday. At the same time, the overall short-term performance was better, and the term interest rate difference between the 10-year and 1-year government bonds narrowed significantly. Data in January showed that the overall economic fundamentals are still weak, PMI has stabilized slightly, finance is strong but the market has doubts about its sustainability, and prices are weak. High-frequency data in February shows that the economy continues to be stable. Subway passenger traffic has basically returned to what it was before the Spring Festival. After the domestic and international flight volume surged significantly during the Spring Festival holiday, it has basically remained at a high level and fluctuated. However, property sales remain sluggish. The post-holiday resumption of work has been relatively slow. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt equipment has only rebounded slightly. The operating rate of blast furnaces has continued to decline. Rebar inventories have continued to rise, and apparent demand has declined. According to the law of leading social financing, the economy may be stable in the short term. A significant improvement in the economy still needs to wait for policy changes. The April Politburo meeting is a critical time. Since the negative factors have been clearly released before, coupled with strong policies and the two sessions are approaching, there is little risk of another sharp decline in the short-term market. This round of rebound is highly related to policy. The Shanghai Composite has returned to 3,000 points, and the probability of a substantial increase in policy is not high. Economic fundamentals are still weak, and the possibility of a sharp market rise is also low. Strategically, you can take profits first, wait and see, and wait for the next opportunity. Risk warning: 1) Real estate decline is greater than expected; 2) Policies are less than expected; 3) Overseas disturbances are greater than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('d48969c7-2352-5a2a-be69-37e107c3067d'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9194298647344112, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'CVP6PSS91D1776KM6TKM58EVUVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'CVP6PSS91D1776KM6TKM58EVUVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b10b7307-e38b-50c1-9045-c5899c250eb7'), 'title': 'Macro Comment: Can gold prices hit new highs in 2024?', 'author': 'Song Xuetao, Lin Yan', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-03-01', 'encodeUrl': 'DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQEFSZ6FYcJaejH8I4/Xn5O0=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛,林彦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658', '11000425634'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=DqPdLyf/r9KOGL+d08nRQEFSZ6FYcJaejH8I4/Xn5O0=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624793097_1.pdf?1709283156000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403011624793097_1.pdf?1709283156000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: Can gold prices hit new highs in 2024?', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛,林彦', 'originalContent': '展望2024年的黄金市场，无论是金融属性还是避险属性，均有利于金价的上涨，叠加当前估值水平相对合理，我们看好金价再创历史新高。未来黄金最大的变数可能蕴含在“人工智能的发展能否提升全要素生产率，从而解决供给不足的现状”这个新时代可能最重要的命题当中。风险提示：美国通胀超预期，美联储货币政策超预期紧缩，人工智能应用落地超预期', 'content': 'Looking forward to the gold market in 2024, both financial and hedging attributes are conducive to the rise of gold prices. Combined with the current valuation level, which is relatively reasonable, we are optimistic that gold prices will reach a new historical high. The biggest variable for gold in the future may be contained in the most important proposition of the new era: \"Can the development of artificial intelligence improve total factor productivity and thereby solve the current situation of insufficient supply?\" Risk warning: U.S. inflation exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightens more than expected, and the implementation of artificial intelligence applications exceeds expectations', 'authorid': UUID('36e3252c-e8b8-57b7-8761-bedbc96e9406'), 'sentimentScore': 0.81573679856956, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'RRRUKJ6TOIM7HBCT66MEMA4ODBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:54 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'RRRUKJ6TOIM7HBCT66MEMA4ODBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('aafd74c6-0d75-531c-80d0-c53967efe060'), 'title': 'Special Macroeconomic Research: Review of the History of China’s Automobile Industry', 'author': 'Shao Xingyu, Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwQ04X/jDRG5N8Zmu/jGK3as=', 'researcher': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257974', '11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwQ04X/jDRG5N8Zmu/jGK3as=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624250348_1.pdf?1709242055000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624250348_1.pdf?1709242055000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Special Macroeconomic Research: Review of the History of China’s Automobile Industry', 'originalAuthor': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点新中国汽车产业从无到有的历程。从新中国建立之初，汽车工业就受到最高领导人的高度重视。（1）建国初期，无论从供给端还是从需求端看，中国发展汽车工业的条件都还很不成熟。从供给端看，作为生产汽车最为基本的原材料，建国初期中国粗钢产量相对非常低；在需求端，我国建国初期公路里程数也相对较低，至1960年全国公路里程数为51万公里，仅相当于美国同期十分之一左右。（2）考虑到现实需求问题，我国汽车产业在早期阶段更加侧重于生产卡车和越野车等车型，轿车产量则在很长一段时间里相对较低。仅以早期汽车工业的主导者第一汽车制造厂为例，在1955年-1973年间，该厂产量长时间高度向“解放”牌卡车等车型倾向，单年最高产量达到过50605辆（1971年），与之相比，作为国产轿车代表的红旗轿车单年最高产量仅为307辆（1964年）。（3）在现实的资源和技术约束条件下，尽管我国汽车产业在60年代-70年代产量上出现了较大提升，也仍然面临着不少技术方面问题。仍以第一汽车制造厂的主要产品解放牌汽车为例，尽管该车实现了量产，但在很长一段时间里，该产品返修率始终处于10%以上水平，最高甚��一度达到50%以上。（4）自1975年，我国汽车工业开始进行一些技术合作方面的尝试，伴随改革开放后，我国主要汽车生产厂全面转向与国外车企合作，直到新能源汽车崛起，这种格局才出现新的变化。厚积薄发下的新能源车大发展。（1）目前我国在新能源车生产方面具有较大优势，是全球最主要的新能源车生产国。（2）新能源车之所以能够取得这样“弯道超车”的成绩，很大程度上与新能源车自身成本结构及我国此前在相关领域的长期积累有关。从车辆制造的成本投入来看，新能源车成本中最重要的是电池等，在成本当中占比约在40%上下，这一点与传统车主要成本来自于发动机存在较大不同。长期以来，我国在电气设备方面的技术优势要比发动机方面大得多。从这一点上讲，新能源车大发展是我国电气设备领域技术优势长期积累下的一个产物。风险提示：政策调整滞后，经济增速下滑。', 'content': 'Core viewpoint: The process of new China\\'s automobile industry from scratch. From the beginning of the founding of New China, the automobile industry has received great attention from the top leaders. (1) In the early days of the founding of the People\\'s Republic of China, the conditions for China\\'s development of the automobile industry were still very immature, both from the supply side and the demand side. From the supply side, as the most basic raw material for automobile production, China\\'s crude steel output was relatively very low in the early days of the founding of the People\\'s Republic of China. On the demand side, the mileage of highways in my country was also relatively low in the early days of the founding of the People\\'s Republic of China. By 1960, the national highway mileage was 510,000 kilometers. It is only equivalent to about one-tenth of the United States during the same period. (2) Considering the actual demand issues, my country\\'s automobile industry focused more on the production of trucks, off-road vehicles and other models in the early stages, while the output of cars was relatively low for a long time. Just take the First Automobile Manufacturing Plant, the leader of the early automobile industry, as an example. From 1955 to 1973, the plant\\'s output was highly inclined to \"Jiefang\" brand trucks and other models for a long time. The highest output in a single year reached 50,605 vehicles (in 1971 ), in comparison, the highest output of Hongqi sedan, a representative of domestically produced cars, was only 307 units in a single year (1964). (3) Under realistic resource and technical constraints, although my country\\'s automobile industry has experienced a significant increase in output in the 1960s and 1970s, it still faces many technical problems. Still taking the Jiefang brand car, the main product of the First Automobile Manufacturing Plant, as an example. Although the car has achieved mass production, the repair rate of this product has always been above 10% for a long time, and even reached over 50% at one time. . (4) Since 1975, my country’s automobile industry has begun to make some attempts at technical cooperation. With the reform and opening up, my country’s major automobile manufacturers have fully turned to cooperation with foreign automobile companies. It was not until the rise of new energy vehicles that this pattern emerged. Variety. The great development of new energy vehicles has been achieved through hard work. (1) At present, my country has great advantages in the production of new energy vehicles and is the world\\'s largest producer of new energy vehicles. (2) The reason why new energy vehicles can achieve such \"overtaking in corners\" is largely related to the cost structure of new energy vehicles themselves and my country\\'s long-term accumulation in related fields. From the perspective of vehicle manufacturing cost investment, the most important cost of new energy vehicles is the battery, which accounts for about 40% of the cost. This is quite different from traditional vehicles where the main cost comes from the engine. For a long time, our country\\'s technical advantages in electrical equipment have been much greater than in engines. From this point of view, the great development of new energy vehicles is a product of the long-term accumulation of technological advantages in the field of electrical equipment in my country. Risk warning: Policy adjustments lag behind and economic growth slows down.', 'authorid': UUID('326df97e-9b51-50f7-9a96-c9f92117a326'), 'sentimentScore': 0.0540105365216732, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'QO0BL8O2T4NMH0GSQFHCLHNBMRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:56 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'QO0BL8O2T4NMH0GSQFHCLHNBMRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('db8f9cac-9cc6-59e4-89b9-2467ff63df05'), 'title': 'High-tech Manufacturing Macro Weekly Report: Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index continues to rise', 'author': 'Shao Xingyu, Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwa7JHEI8pk0uesjMwztc6qY=', 'researcher': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257974', '11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwa7JHEI8pk0uesjMwztc6qY=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624249989_1.pdf?1709242055000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624249989_1.pdf?1709242055000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'High-tech Manufacturing Macro Weekly Report: Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index continues to rise', 'originalAuthor': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数继续上涨。截至2024年2月24日当周，国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数A录得0.2，与上周持平；国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数B为59.4，较上周上涨；扩散指数C为-17.27，较上周上涨。从分项看，本周丙烯腈、6-氨基青霉烷酸、六氟磷酸锂价格、中关村电子产品价格指数保持不变，航空航天行业、新能源行业、医药行业、计算机行业景气度保持不变；动态随机存储器价格上涨，半导体行业景气度较上周上涨。高技术产业跟踪方面：高技术制造业高频数据跟踪上，6-氨基青霉烷酸价格330元/千克，与上周持平；丙烯腈价格9250元/吨，与上周持平；动态随机存储器（DRAM）价格1.0870美元，较上周上涨0.006美元；晶圆（Wafer）价格最新一期报3.44美元/片，与上周持平；六氟磷酸锂价格6.65万元/吨，与上周持平；中关村电子产品价格指数:液晶显示器最新一期报91.04，与上周持平。总结来看，半导体行业景气度上行，医药、新能源、计算机、航空航天行业景气度保持不变。高技术制造业政策动向上，据新华社2月27日消息，2024年世界移动通信大会26日在西班牙巴塞罗那会展中心拉开帷幕。今年大会主题是“未来先行”，重点关注超越5G、智联万物、AI人性化、数智制造、颠覆规则、数字基因6大领域。据悉，今年大会有约2400家参展商和1100名演讲者参会，其中包括中国移动、中国电信、华为、中兴、联想、小米、科大讯飞等近300家中国企业。此外，为初创企业提供发展平台的创新孵化项目今年也迎来10周年，来自100多个国家和地区、涵盖12个行业的850多家初创企业将在今年大会期间亮相，展示相关领域的产品和技术。高技术制造业前沿动态上，据新华社2月27日消息，记者从自然资源部中国极地研究中心获悉，我国将在南极钻探一个冰下湖，正在开展的中国第40次南极考察中，内陆考察队员已成功进行实地探路。据中国极地研究中心极地冰雪与气候变化研究所研究员姜苏介绍，这个冰下湖位于东南极内陆冰盖伊丽莎白公主地区域，深埋在冰盖下方超过3600米，距离中国南极泰山站120千米。2022年，我国正式将这个形似“麒麟静卧”的冰下湖命名为“麒麟冰下湖”，现已被南极研究科学委员会（SCAR）收录。风险提示：高技术制造业发展和结构调整带来指标失灵；经济政策和产业政策干预；经济增速下滑。', 'content': 'Core view: Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index continues to rise. In the week ending February 24, 2024, Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index A recorded 0.2, the same as last week; Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index B was 59.4, up from last week; diffusion index C was -17.27, An increase from last week. In terms of items, the prices of acrylonitrile, 6-aminopenicillanic acid, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and the Zhongguancun electronic product price index remained unchanged this week, and the prosperity of the aerospace industry, new energy industry, pharmaceutical industry, and computer industry remained unchanged; dynamics The price of random access memory increased, and the prosperity of the semiconductor industry increased compared with last week. High-tech industry tracking: According to the high-frequency data tracking of high-tech manufacturing, the price of 6-aminopenicillanic acid is 330 yuan/kg, the same as last week; the price of acrylonitrile is 9,250 yuan/ton, the same as last week; dynamic random access memory (DRAM) price is US$1.0870, up US$0.006 from last week; wafer (Wafer) price in the latest issue is US$3.44/piece, the same as last week; lithium hexafluorophosphate price is 66,500 yuan/ton, the same as last week; Zhongguancun Electronic Products Price Index: The latest LCD monitor report was 91.04, the same as last week. In summary, the prosperity of the semiconductor industry has increased, while the prosperity of the pharmaceutical, new energy, computer, and aerospace industries has remained unchanged. Regarding high-tech manufacturing policy trends, according to Xinhua News Agency on February 27, the 2024 World Mobile Communications Conference kicked off on the 26th at the Barcelona Convention and Exhibition Center in Spain. The theme of this year\\'s conference is \"Future First\", focusing on six major areas: Beyond 5G, Intelligent Connectivity, Humanization of AI, Digital Intelligent Manufacturing, Subversion of Rules, and Digital Gene. It is reported that this year’s conference will have about 2,400 exhibitors and 1,100 speakers, including nearly 300 Chinese companies such as China Mobile, China Telecom, Huawei, ZTE, Lenovo, Xiaomi, and iFlytek. In addition, the innovation incubation project that provides a development platform for start-ups also celebrates its 10th anniversary this year. More than 850 start-ups from more than 100 countries and regions, covering 12 industries, will appear during this year\\'s conference to showcase products and products in related fields. technology. On the forefront of high-tech manufacturing, according to Xinhua News Agency on February 27, reporters learned from the China Polar Research Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources that my country will drill a subglacial lake in Antarctica. During China’s 40th Antarctic expedition, which is currently underway, The Chinese expedition team has successfully conducted on-site exploration. According to Jiang Su, a researcher at the Institute of Polar Ice, Snow and Climate Change at the China Polar Research Center, this subglacial lake is located in the Princess Elizabeth Land area of \\u200b\\u200bthe East Antarctic inland ice sheet. It is buried more than 3,600 meters beneath the ice sheet and is 120,000 meters away from China’s Antarctic Taishan Station. rice. In 2022, our country officially named this subglacial lake that resembles a \"Qilin Lying Quietly\" as the \"Qilin Subglacial Lake\", and it has now been included by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). Risk warning: The development and structural adjustment of high-tech manufacturing industry will lead to indicator failure; economic policy and industrial policy intervention; economic growth will decline.', 'authorid': UUID('326df97e-9b51-50f7-9a96-c9f92117a326'), 'sentimentScore': 0.842626977711916, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TGOMTSM81UJ88T1RBDRU5G5KC3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:05:59 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TGOMTSM81UJ88T1RBDRU5G5KC3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('02e61556-e352-559f-b2e5-06bb37ef4c54'), 'title': 'Macro Comment: Signals of the Two Sessions Revealed by the Politburo Meeting', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwW0FMdL5WrdbBGFd7x1Iwag=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwW0FMdL5WrdbBGFd7x1Iwag=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624152450_1.pdf?1709239724000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624152450_1.pdf?1709239724000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: Signals of the Two Sessions Revealed by the Politburo Meeting', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '今天的政治局会议有点不一样，议题非常聚焦——《政府工作报告》从历史上看，两会前的最后一次政治局会议议题往往会比较多样，例如去年会议优先讨论的是召开二十届二中全会（图1）。结合此前密集召开的深改委和中央财经委会议，这意味着当前高层确实比较重视经济。值得注意的是，与去年的中央经济工作会议相比，我们觉得政策层次更加看重“预期”和“科技”了。本次政治局会议进一步明确了“增强宏观政策取向一致性”的目的和标注——“营造稳定透明可预期的政策环境”，这可能是在经过外资流出、市场波动，政策可能更加注重时效性和预期引导。而“要大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力”，无疑凸显出科技创新等产业政策要进一步加速和发力了。结合中央经济工作会议和开年以来的变化，我们认为今年两会的政策基调是总量上保持平稳，而结构上重点会更加突出，最值得关注的是以人工智能、算力为主的科技创新产业政策，和更加注重落实的地产政策。总量上回归平稳，短期内可能不会给市场带来太多“惊喜”。我们认为有以下三个方面的原因：第一，前期政策出台力度大、节奏明显前置（可以追溯到去年年底）、效果仍需观测。2023年Q4的1万亿增发国债、今年年初超预期的降准降息，中央和地方一系列支持地产和“三大工程”的政策陆续落地，而这些都需要时间推进和转化。第二，消费对短期经济表现有一定结构支撑，春节假期我国实现国内旅游收入同比增长34%、服务性消费进一步修复，这可能也是高层对今年内需有所期待的重要原因，中财委在两会前几乎明牌式提出以设备更新和消费品以旧换换新为代表的内需将成为稳经济阶段性的抓手。第三，我们认为一些结构性的领域在政策优先级中可能更高。比如我们上文所说的科技创新、海外AI浪潮的压力，比如地产政策的落实以及地方化债的继续推进。在总量政策的定位里，货币政策是“排头兵”，财政政策可能是“后手棋”。今年货币政策发力早、力度也不小，而且从实际利率和地产表现来看，后续仍有较大空间（尤其是LPR和MLF降息），但是节奏上可能要到第二季度中后段。形成对比的是，今年以来财政所说所做就偏少了。从2月1日的国新办财政收支发布会中，可以看出财政的基本定调“保持适当的支出强度”，同时要“优化财政支出结构”，往科技创新等产业领域的“提效”是确定的（居于七大工作重点之首）。除此之外，今年以来发债慢、复工缓，以及安排地方准备超长期项目都凸显出“后手棋”的味道。我们认为阶段性政策关注的重点依旧在产业政策，尤其是人工智能和算力为代表的科技创新。从中央经济工作会议到各地两会，“科技创新、现代化产业体系建设”均为政府工作任务的首要关注点；对此，多部委积极响应，表态通过融资、财政等多手段对人工智能、新兴产业、未来产业等行业领域予以支持。值得注意的是，当前海外AI加速发展、主要发达经济体加大新兴产业补贴力度等因素催化下，我国产业政策加码及切实落地的紧迫性明显提升。具体领域来看，人工智能及算力领域或尤为值得关注。中央经济工作会议表示“推进”新型工业化、“发展”数字经济、“加快推动”人工智能发展、“打造”新兴产业、“开辟”未来产业，“加快”这一表态或对人工智能领域发展予以节奏指引。2月以来，部委及地方积极响应落实，2月21日，国资委专门就“人工智能”领域召开专题推进会值得关注（过往国资委专题推进会主要围绕国有企业改革等方面展开，较少聚焦单一行业领域），26日国资委召开扩大会议，再提“加快人工智能等新技术赋能”。中央定调下，各地加快出台具体措施，以“算力券”补贴等为代表的政策提升算力应用普惠力度、加大算力应用覆盖范围。新动能之外，地产也是今年稳经济的重要一环，当前政策可能更加注重落实。今年以来地产支持政策也密集出台，不过在新年1月70城二手房价格同比全数下跌，同时节前房企清盘事件与违约风险扰动市场的背景下，地产的“当务之急”是稳定预期，加速前期政策的落实，主要集中在两个方面：一是更加扎实、快速推进地方地产项目的融资“白名单”制度，防止风险爆发、蔓延，二是在PSL资金铺垫、央行专项工具以及政策性银行专项借款的支持下，“三大工程”、保障性住房建设会进一步加速。除此之外，“稳外资”也将是2024年的一大政策主线。2023年FDI投资明显下滑，稳定外资、稳定海外投资者的信心对于当前稳定经济和经济转型都有重要意义。以史为鉴，两会以及两会前后的国常会，其议题往往都会“一脉相连”，即使是2023年发生了国务院总理的“交接”，这一规律也并未发生改变。今年两会前的国常会提到了“要把稳外资作为做好今年经济工作的重要发力点”，这也说明了更大力度吸引和利用外资的政策举措“正在路上”。关注改革，构建全国统一大市场、支持民营经济发展、财税等重点领域体制改革等或为后续三中全会关注要点。长期改革目标上，中央经济工作会议强调深化重点领域改革，主要提及促进民营经济发展、加快建设全国统一大市场、谋划财税体制改革及落实金融体制改革；同时，2月26日国务院第六次专题学习聚集“加快完���全国统一大市场基础制度规则”，这些均为后续三中全会关注要点提供指引线索。风险提示：政策出台节奏及项目落地放缓导致经济复苏偏慢；海外经济体提前显著进入衰退，国内出口超预期萎缩。', 'content': '今天的政治局会议有点不一样，议题非常聚焦——《政府工作报告》从历史上看，两会前的最后一次政治局会议议题往往会比较多样，例如去年会议优先讨论的是召开二十届二中全会（图1）。结合此前密集召开的深改委和中央财经委会议，这意味着当前高层确实比较重视经济。值得注意的是，与去年的中央经济工作会议相比，我们觉得政策层次更加看重“预期”和“科技”了。本次政治局会议进一步明确了“增强宏观政策取向一致性”的目的和标注——“营造稳定透明可预期的政策环境”，这可能是在经过外资流出、市场波动，政策可能更加注重时效性和预期引导。而“要大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力”，无疑凸显出科技创新等产业政策要进一步加速和发力了。结合中央经济工作会议和开年以来的变化，我们认为今年两会的政策基调是总量上保持平稳，而结构上重点会更加突出，最值得关注的是以人工智能、算力为主的科技创新产业政策，和更加注重落实的地产政策。总量上回归平稳，短期内可能不会给市场带来太多“惊喜”。我们认为有以下三个方面的原因：第一，前期政策出台力度大、节奏明显前置（可以追溯到去年年底）、效果仍需观测。2023年Q4的1万亿增发国债、今年年初超预期的降准降息，中央和地方一系列支持地产和“三大工程”的政策陆续落地，而这些都需要时间推进和转化。第二，消费对短期经济表现有一定结构支撑，春节假期我国实现国内旅游收入同比增长34%、服务性消费进一步修复，这可能也是高层对今年内需有所期待的重要原因，中财委在两会前几乎明牌式提出以设备更新和消费品以旧换换新为代表的内需将成为稳经济阶段性的抓手。第三，我们认为一些结构性的领域在政策优先级中可能更高。比如我们上文所说的科技创新、海外AI浪潮的压力，比如地产政策的落实以及地方化债的继续推进。在总量政策的定位里，货币政策是“排头兵”，财政政策可能是“后手棋”。今年货币政策发力早、力度也不小，而且从实际利率和地产表现来看，后续仍有较大空间（尤其是LPR和MLF降息），但是节奏上可能要到第二季度中后段。形成对比的是，今年以来财政所说所做就偏少了。从2月1日的国新办财政收支发布会中，可以看出财政的基本定调“保持适当的支出强度”，同时要“优化财政支出结构”，往科技创新等产业领域的“提效”是确定的（居于七大工作重点之首）。除此之外，今年以来发债慢、复工缓，以及安排地方准备超长期项目都凸显出“后手棋”的味道。我们认为阶段性政策关注的重点依旧在产业政策，尤其是人工智能和算力为代表的科技创新。从中央经济工作会议到各地两会，“科技创新、现代化产业体系建设”均为政府工作任务的首要关注点；对此，多部委积极响应，表态通过融资、财政等多手段对人工智能、新兴产业、未来产业等行业领域予以支持。值得注意的是，当前海外AI加速发展、主要发达经济体加大新兴产业补贴力度等因素催化下，我国产业政策加码及切实落地的紧迫性明显提升。具体领域来看，人工智能及算力领域或尤为值得关注。中央经济工作会议表示“推进”新型工业化、“发展”数字经济、“加快推动”人工智能发展、“打造”新兴产业、“开辟”未来产业，“加快”这一表态或对人工智能领域发展予以节奏指引。2月以来，部委及地方积极响应落实，2月21日，国资委专门就“人工智能”领域召开专题推进会值得关注（过往国资委专题推进会主要围绕国有企业改革等方面展开，较少聚焦单一行业领域），26日国资委召开扩大会议，再提“加快人工智能等新技术赋能”。中央定调下，各地加快出台具体措施，以“算力券”补贴等为代表的政策提升算力应用普惠力度、加大算力应用覆盖范围。新动能之外，地产也是今年稳经济的重要一环，当前政策可能更加注重落实。今年以来地产支持政策也密集出台，不过在新年1月70城二手房价格同比全数下跌，同时节前房企清盘事件与违约风险扰动市场的背景下，地产的“当务之急”是稳定预期，加速前期政策的落实，主要集中在两个方面：一是更加扎实、快速推进地方地产项目的融资“白名单���制度，防止风险爆发、蔓延，二是在PSL资金铺垫、央行专项工具以及政策性银行专项借款的支持下，“三大工程”、保障性住房建设会进一步加速。除此之外，“稳外资”也将是2024年的一大政策主线。2023年FDI投资明显下滑，稳定外资、稳定海外投资者的信心对于当前稳定经济和经济转型都有重要意义。以史为鉴，两会以及两会前后的国常会，其议题往往都会“一脉相连”，即使是2023年发生了国务院总理的“交接”，这一规律也并未发生改变。今年两会前的国常会提到了“要把稳外资作为做好今年经济工作的重要发力点”，这也说明了更大力度吸引和利用外资的政策举措“正在路上”。关注改革，构建全国统一大市场、支持民营经济发展、财税等重点领域体制改革等或为后续三中全会关注要点。长期改革目标上，中央经济工作会议强调深化重点领域改革，主要提及促进民营经济发展、加快建设全国统一大市场、谋划财税体制改革及落实金融体制改革；同时，2月26日国务院第六次专题学习聚集“加快完善全国统一大市场基础制度规则”，这些均为后续三中全会关注要点提供指引线索。风险提示：政策出台节奏及项目落地放缓导致经济复苏偏慢；海外经济体提前显著进入衰退，国内出口超预期萎缩。', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': 0.06411560252308846, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'S54HH66IVD3KNK3VB0GJK873PBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:06:03 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'S54HH66IVD3KNK3VB0GJK873PBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d710a183-0476-5866-9e4c-2e0a78ff0a5e'), 'title': 'February macroeconomic forecast: consumption and exports can be more optimistic', 'author': 'Gao Ming , Xu Dongshi', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwVxiCVlq3wLqoCjzbTRVV7s=', 'researcher': '高明,许冬石', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000262937', '11000185520'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwVxiCVlq3wLqoCjzbTRVV7s=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624139086_1.pdf?1709238074000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624139086_1.pdf?1709238074000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'February macroeconomic forecast: consumption and exports can be more optimistic', 'originalAuthor': '高明,许冬石', 'originalContent': '核心要点：全球流动性进一步趋紧。2024年以来，美国10年期国债收益率从3.9%升至4.3%；同期中国10年期国债到期收益率从2.56%下降至2.34%，延续2023年12月从2.7%开始下行的趋势；对应中美利差从2023年底的-130BP再次扩大至接近-200BP。美元指数也从2023年末值101.38反弹至2月28日的103.9。根据春节消费数据上调社会消费品零售增速至5.6%。春节期间消费恢复速度快于2023年，尽管仍然面临人均消费下降的问题，但是消费人次上行带动消费总额恢复。2024年春节全国重点零售和餐饮消费增速达到8.5%，根据春节零售与全年零售关系的历史数据，全年消费增速可能在6.5%至7.5%之间。同时汽车销量保持较高增速，1至2月乘用车销量同比增长19%，而去年同期为-21%。受美国库存周期筑底带动，中国出口增速也将进一步加速，一季度平均增速可能达到8.0%左右。2023Q4美国利率见顶回落，美国销售总额增速实现转正，美国库存周期开始筑底，中国出口也在基数效应与美国销售额增长的驱动之下实现转正。2024年1至2月美国制造业PMI在连续保持在临界值以上，预计中国出口增速将继续加速上升，2月增速由于低基数可能接近20%。价格方面，维持二季度CPI转正、三季度PPI转正的预测。1月CPI同比-0.8%（前值-0.3%），环比+0.3%；PPI同比-2.5%（前值-2.7%），环比-0.2%。从环比看工业品需求仍然相对不足，消费品需求有一定恢复。预测CPI同比2月+0.4%，实现转正，但3月再次回落至-0.2%；预测PPI同比2月-2.3%、3月-2.2%，收窄降幅但斜率相对缓和。宏观政策持续加力，资本市场已经企稳，但房地产销售改善不明显，预计货币供应量与社会融资增速实现企稳。2月7日吴清任职证监会党委书记、主席；20日5年期LPR调降25BP；23日中央财经委第四次会议部署设备更新、消费品以旧换新��降低物流成本。政策驱动之下，2月上证综指上涨8.13%、创业板指数上涨14.85%。房地产方面，城市房地产融资协调机制开始推进，但1月至2月住房销售改善尚不明显。展望2024年一季度，政府债发行加速可能仍是推动社会融资的主要因素，但消费与出口的恢复将带动货币活化与信用需求。预测2月与3月M1增速分别为2.5%、3.4%；M2增速从1月的8.7%回升至2月至3月的8.9%；社会融资增速2月降至9.0%，3月回升至9.2%。', 'content': \"Key takeaway: Global liquidity tightens further. Since 2024, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield has risen from 3.9% to 4.3%; during the same period, China's 10-year Treasury bond yield to maturity has dropped from 2.56% to 2.34%, continuing the downward trend that started from 2.7% in December 2023; The corresponding interest rate gap between China and the United States has expanded again from -130BP at the end of 2023 to nearly -200BP. The U.S. dollar index also rebounded from the end-2023 value of 101.38 to 103.9 on February 28. Based on Spring Festival consumption data, the retail sales growth rate of consumer goods is raised to 5.6%. During the Spring Festival, consumption recovered faster than in 2023. Although per capita consumption is still facing the problem of decline, the increase in the number of consumers has driven the recovery of total consumption. During the 2024 Spring Festival, the national key retail and catering consumption growth will reach 8.5%. According to historical data on the relationship between Spring Festival retail and annual retail, the annual consumption growth rate may be between 6.5% and 7.5%. At the same time, automobile sales maintained a high growth rate. Passenger car sales increased by 19% year-on-year from January to February, compared with -21% in the same period last year. Driven by the bottoming out of the U.S. inventory cycle, China's export growth will also further accelerate, and the average growth rate in the first quarter may reach about 8.0%. In 2023Q4, U.S. interest rates peaked and fell, U.S. total sales growth turned positive, the U.S. inventory cycle began to bottom out, and China's exports also turned positive driven by the base effect and U.S. sales growth. From January to February 2024, the U.S. manufacturing PMI has continued to remain above the critical value. It is expected that China's export growth will continue to accelerate, and the growth rate in February may be close to 20% due to a low base. In terms of prices, we maintain the forecast that CPI will turn positive in the second quarter and PPI will turn positive in the third quarter. In January, CPI was -0.8% year-on-year (previous value -0.3%), month-on-month +0.3%; PPI was -2.5% year-on-year (previous value -2.7%), month-on-month -0.2%. From a month-on-month perspective, demand for industrial products is still relatively insufficient, while demand for consumer goods has recovered to some extent. CPI is forecast to be +0.4% year-on-year in February, turning positive, but will fall again to -0.2% in March; PPI is forecast to be -2.3% year-on-year in February and -2.2% in March, narrowing the decline but with a relatively gentle slope. Macroeconomic policies continue to intensify and the capital market has stabilized. However, real estate sales have not improved significantly. It is expected that the growth rate of money supply and social financing will stabilize. On February 7, Wu Qing was appointed as Secretary and Chairman of the Party Committee of the China Securities Regulatory Commission; on the 20th, the 5-year LPR was reduced by 25BP; on the 23rd, the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission deployed equipment updates, replacement of old consumer goods, and reduction of logistics costs. Driven by policies, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 8.13% and the GEM Index rose 14.85% in February. In terms of real estate, the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism has begun to advance, but the improvement in housing sales from January to February is not yet obvious. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2024, the acceleration of government bond issuance may still be the main factor driving social financing, but the recovery of consumption and exports will drive currency activation and credit demand. The growth rate of M1 in February and March is forecast to be 2.5% and 3.4% respectively; the growth rate of M2 rebounded from 8.7% in January to 8.9% from February to March; the growth rate of social financing dropped to 9.0% in February and 9.0% in March. rose back to 9.2%.\", 'authorid': UUID('2b7ee653-8f10-5dfc-9e1e-1186c79a37cf'), 'sentimentScore': 0.1773742139339447, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '043S0P7AALNP0QL3VNS06OMHANVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:06:06 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '043S0P7AALNP0QL3VNS06OMHANVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('4ad40ba8-56dc-5c24-bf91-c11fd0c41587'), 'title': 'A series of studies on the high-quality development of China’s economy: Digital economy: new solutions to new energy demands, technology empowerment and incubation of new business formats', 'author': 'Zhou Ran, Duan Shangchang, Huang Lin', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwaui6oVUC52EjVyRTQ6G5dI=', 'researcher': '周然,段尚昌,黄林', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000178889', '11000421133', '11000421132'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwaui6oVUC52EjVyRTQ6G5dI=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624117962_1.pdf?1709234266000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624117962_1.pdf?1709234266000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'A series of studies on the high-quality development of China’s economy: Digital economy: new solutions to new energy demands, technology empowerment and incubation of new business formats', 'originalAuthor': '周然,段尚昌,黄林', 'originalContent': '核心观点数字经济加速能源革命，技术赋能智能泛在电力系统。数字经济引领新质生产力，打造经济新动能。数字经济范式升级五大方向之一即为“从高能耗到绿色低碳”。数字经济将有效撬动大规模的风/光/储能装机需求以及电网等配套基础设施的发展。智能能源互联网有望催生出新技术、新业态、新领域。数字经济作为新能源需求新解法，助力过剩产能出清。高基数下，我们预计今年新能源装机以及锂电池需求增速或下滑，行业进入供过于求新常态，产能利用率下滑明显，企业盈利严重承压。数字经济有望激发海量绿电需求，开辟新能源发展新时代。我们搭建了“数据中心-电力系统需求模型”，测算出2026-2030年，仅为满足数据中心耗电需求催生的光伏、风电年均新增装机可达64GW、28GW，2031-2035年升至137GW、60GW；风光装机带动储能配套，截至2030年、2035年，预计储能累计新增装机可达350.9GWh、1,926.6GWh，有效消化光伏锂电行业过剩产能。“云大物移智链边”数字技术守护智能能源星辰大海。数字技术深度赋能，助力能源体系升级变革。智能能源互联网是数字经济重要基础设施，能源互联网升级撬动万亿基建投资，智能设备升级大有可为。智慧电网提升互联互通和全息感知能力，在状态感知、诊断、巡检方面加速输电网络数字化进程。作为用电信息和能源分配末端设备，智能电表从双向计量走向多向互动，实时监测电网运行状态，双芯、多模块发展提升终端兼容性和可扩展性，助力万物互联。数字革命和能源革命深度融合，构建能源互联网新业态，壮大经济增长新动能：1）绿证与碳交易市场，绿证是一种可交易的、能兑现为货币的凭证，价值或加速兑现，发展前景广阔。区块链技术去中心化、分布式记账、可溯源、加密防篡改等特点，可以有效解决绿证交易过程中的各种痛点问题；2）虚拟电厂，算力是虚拟电厂技术的真正内涵。在欧美发达国家，虚拟电厂已发展得较为成熟，调节形式多样有效。我国目前虚拟电厂的盈利模式主要来源于响应补贴；3）功率预测，新能源发电功率预测是电力调控和管理的刚需，准确率考核趋严。AI技术通过模型输入、模型构建和参数优化应用于新能源功率预测领域，有效提高功率预测准确性；4）数字孪生，得益于物联网、大数据、云计算等技术的发展，数字孪生技术对复杂系统的仿真、分析、预测能力已远超传统解决方案。目前在特高压输电领域、变电领域、配电领域已有广泛应用。能源携手AGI走向全面智能时代。2022年以大语言模型为核心的ChatGPT发布，开启通用人工智能（AGI）元年。AGI系统将具备理解、展示知识、学习、规划、推理、决策等多种复杂能力，在智能能源体系建设过程中展现出非凡的优势和广阔的应用前景。四大受益领域市场分析及投资建议：1）特高压正值投资高峰期，柔性直流潜力大；2）智能电表享海内外双增长红利；3）储能维持高景气度，看好独立储能、长时储能广阔空间；4）智能电网信息化数字化孕育蓝海市场：目前虚拟电厂以负荷型为主，我们更看好电源型或混合型，预计2025年我国电源型虚拟电厂市场空间200亿元；功率预测市场空间可期，集中度高，AI提高准确性；数据、模型、平台是我国电网数字孪生���临的最大挑战。', 'content': 'Core viewpoint: The digital economy accelerates the energy revolution, and technology empowers intelligent ubiquitous power systems. The digital economy leads new productivity and creates new economic momentum. One of the five major directions for upgrading the digital economic paradigm is “from high energy consumption to green and low carbon”. The digital economy will effectively drive the demand for large-scale wind/solar/energy storage installations as well as the development of supporting infrastructure such as power grids. The smart energy Internet is expected to give birth to new technologies, new business formats, and new fields. As a new solution to new energy demand, the digital economy helps clear excess production capacity. Under the high base, we expect that the growth rate of new energy installed capacity and lithium battery demand may decline this year. The industry will enter a new normal of oversupply, capacity utilization will decline significantly, and corporate profits will be severely pressured. The digital economy is expected to stimulate massive demand for green electricity and open up a new era of new energy development. We built a \"data center-power system demand model\" and calculated that from 2026 to 2030, the average annual new installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power generated just to meet the power demand of data centers could reach 64GW and 28GW, rising to 28GW from 2031 to 2035. 137GW, 60GW; wind and solar installed capacity drives energy storage matching. As of 2030 and 2035, it is expected that the cumulative new installed capacity of energy storage will reach 350.9GWh and 1,926.6GWh, effectively digesting the excess production capacity of the photovoltaic lithium battery industry. The digital technology of \"cloud, big things, moving intelligence, chain edge\" protects the sea of \\u200b\\u200bintelligent energy stars. Digital technology is deeply empowering to help upgrade and transform the energy system. The smart energy Internet is an important infrastructure for the digital economy. The upgrade of the energy Internet has leveraged trillions of infrastructure investments, and the upgrade of smart equipment has great potential. Smart grid improves interconnection and holographic perception capabilities, and accelerates the digitalization process of power transmission networks in terms of status perception, diagnosis, and inspection. As terminal equipment for power consumption information and energy distribution, smart meters have moved from two-way measurement to multi-way interaction, monitoring the operating status of the power grid in real time. The development of dual-core and multi-modules improves terminal compatibility and scalability, and helps the Internet of Everything. The digital revolution and the energy revolution are deeply integrated to build a new energy Internet business format and strengthen new driving forces for economic growth: 1) Green certificate and carbon trading market. Green certificate is a tradable certificate that can be cashed into currency, and its value may be accelerated. The development prospects are broad. Blockchain technology has the characteristics of decentralization, distributed accounting, traceability, encryption and anti-tampering, etc., which can effectively solve various pain points in the green certificate transaction process; 2) Virtual power plant, computing power is the true connotation of virtual power plant technology . In developed countries in Europe and the United States, virtual power plants have developed relatively maturely, with various and effective forms of regulation. The current profit model of virtual power plants in my country mainly comes from response subsidies; 3) Power forecasting. New energy power generation power forecasting is a rigid need for power regulation and management, and the accuracy assessment is becoming stricter. AI technology is applied to the field of new energy power prediction through model input, model construction and parameter optimization, effectively improving the accuracy of power prediction; 4) Digital twin, benefiting from the development of Internet of Things, big data, cloud computing and other technologies, digital twin technology The ability to simulate, analyze, and predict complex systems far exceeds traditional solutions. Currently, it has been widely used in the field of UHV transmission, substation and distribution. Energy joins hands with AGI to move towards the era of comprehensive intelligence. In 2022, ChatGPT with a large language model as the core will be released, ushering in the first year of general artificial intelligence (AGI). The AGI system will have a variety of complex capabilities such as understanding, displaying knowledge, learning, planning, reasoning, and decision-making, showing extraordinary advantages and broad application prospects in the construction of smart energy systems. Market analysis and investment suggestions for the four major benefit areas: 1) UHV is at the peak of investment, and flexible DC has great potential; 2) Smart meters enjoy double growth dividends at home and abroad; 3) Energy storage maintains high prosperity, and we are optimistic about independent energy storage, There is vast space for long-term energy storage; 4) Smart grid informatization and digitization breed blue ocean markets: At present, virtual power plants are mainly load-type, and we are more optimistic about power-type or hybrid types. It is estimated that the market space of power-type virtual power plants in my country will be 20 billion yuan in 2025; The power prediction market has promising space, high concentration, and AI improves accuracy; data, models, and platforms are the biggest challenges facing my country\\'s power grid digital twins.', 'authorid': UUID('5c1ce900-f42a-5a82-8be1-2922abb59201'), 'sentimentScore': 0.3711219811812043, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '1AGFJPHBIC9DER55OR4NILL53BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:06:10 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '1AGFJPHBIC9DER55OR4NILL53BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('28e4c680-c7e0-5e57-822a-320e77818549'), 'title': '[Guangdong Open Macro] New measures to promote investment and consumption, and tap increments from stock', 'author': 'Luo Zhiheng, Ma Jiajin', 'orgName': '粤开证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000118', 'orgSName': '粤开证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwalEaOOFJvpFdQzCq7hLOVU=', 'researcher': '罗志恒,马家进', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245432', '11000375233'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwalEaOOFJvpFdQzCq7hLOVU=', 'site': 'Guangdong Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '粤开证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624106633_1.pdf?1709221043000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624106633_1.pdf?1709221043000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '[Guangdong Open Macro] New measures to promote investment and consumption, and tap increments from stock', 'originalAuthor': '罗志恒,马家进', 'originalContent': '导读全国两会临近，市场对宏观政策的关注快速升温。近期中央财经委员会第四次会议研究部署的“推动新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新”引发了市场的广泛讨论。传统的需求刺激政策通常直接作用于增量，而设备更新和以旧换新呈现出“从存量中挖掘增量”的政策思路调整。这在财政盘活存量资产、金融盘活存量资金、房地产加快推进城中村改造等政策中也均有体现，背后是经济发展阶段和条件变化导致的宏观调控难度上升和传统政策效果减弱。具体到设备更新和以旧换新政策本身，政策效果方面，有助于统筹扩大有效需求和供给侧结构性改革，夯实经济回升向好基础，加快经济绿色转型；政策落地方面，要坚持市场为主、政府引导，财政和货币政策协同支持，避免一刀切、运动式的行政性调控。风险提示：外部冲击超预期、稳增长政策超预期', 'content': 'Introduction As the National Two Sessions approach, the market’s attention to macro policies is rapidly heating up. The “promoting a new round of large-scale equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods” discussed and deployed at the recent fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission has triggered extensive discussions in the market. Traditional demand stimulus policies usually directly act on increments, while equipment renewal and trade-in represent adjustments to the policy idea of \\u200b\\u200b“mining increments from stock”. This is also reflected in policies such as fiscal revitalization of existing assets, financial revitalization of existing funds, and real estate accelerating the transformation of urban villages. Behind the scenes are the increasing difficulty of macro-control and the weakening of the effects of traditional policies caused by changes in economic development stages and conditions. Specific to the equipment update and trade-in policy itself, in terms of policy effects, it helps to coordinate the expansion of effective demand and supply-side structural reforms, lay a solid foundation for economic recovery, and accelerate the green economic transformation; in terms of policy implementation, we must adhere to the principle of market-oriented and government-led Guidance, coordinated support from fiscal and monetary policies, and avoid one-size-fits-all, campaign-style administrative regulation. Risk warning: External shocks exceed expectations, and policies to stabilize growth exceed expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('3a3f588e-caa1-5e3b-bce3-f7ec5e6b279a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.11789536662399769, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KH93Q8QHCL8S4M3B4PGJ48L0H7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:06:12 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KH93Q8QHCL8S4M3B4PGJ48L0H7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "IncompleteRead(12470 bytes read, 34933 more expected)\n", - "{'id': UUID('f3683a04-62c9-52d1-908e-c90479bdc00c'), 'title': 'Forecast report: Policies to stabilize growth continue to be effective, and the economy moves forward steadily', 'author': 'Su Jian', 'orgName': '北京大学国民经济研究中心', 'orgCode': '80922684', 'orgSName': '北大国民经济研究中心', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwQ4Y9ISd2ZmYNaEc/MiLYYM=', 'researcher': '苏剑', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000345146'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwQ4Y9ISd2ZmYNaEc/MiLYYM=', 'site': 'National Economic Research Center of Peking University', 'originalSite': '北大国民经济研究中心', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624105655_1.pdf?1709217935000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624105655_1.pdf?1709217935000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Forecast report: Policies to stabilize growth continue to be effective, and the economy moves forward steadily', 'originalAuthor': '苏剑', 'originalContent': '要点稳增长政策持续加力，工业经济稳步增长基数效应叠加政策推动，社零增速或继续上涨政策推动，投资增速或小幅上涨基数效应，出口增速或小幅上涨低基数效应，进口额增速或继续小幅上涨春节因素驱动，CPI增速由负转正需求端无明显改变，工业价格继续底部徘徊稳增长政策发力但需求偏弱，信贷规模同比少增稳增长政策支撑信贷但基数较高，M2同比增速回落国内外释放积极信号，近期人民币或继续走势平稳内容提要尽管宏观稳经济政策持续发力，部分指标释放出经济恢复的积极信号，但中国面临的内部和外部环境仍旧复杂多变，经济下行风险犹存，国内有效需求仍底部徘徊，经济内生修复动能仍需加强，恢复和扩大需求是未来经济持续上涨的关键所在。在宏观政策的助力下，整体经济正逐步展现出企稳迹象，后期发力仍需政策连贯推动。供给端工业增加值：稳增长、扩内需、促改革政策继续发力提供支撑，尽管工业企业盈利增速压力仍存，但工业需求稳步复苏，工业整体开工率仍保持合理适度水平，工业经济整体处在复苏阶段，预计2024年1-2月工业增加值同比增长4.5%，较去年同期加快2.1个百分点。需求端消费：尽管降准降息、国内政策推动长期利好投资，先行指标释放需求扩张信号，但外部环境趋紧，需求依然承压，预计2024年1-2月份固定资产投资同比增长3.5%，较前期上涨0.5个百分点。投资：万亿规模特殊国债发放、国内政策推动长期利好投资，部分指标释放需求扩张信号，但外部环境趋紧，需求端依然承压，预计1-10月份固定资产投资同比增长3.3%，较1-9月份上涨0.2个百分点。出口：低基数效应，政策推动，外部环境释放积极信号，但海外需求仍未企稳，叠加出口管制，预计2024年1-2月份出口金额同比增长3.7%，较前期上涨1.5个百分点。进口：宏观政策持续发力，“一带一路”峰会成功举办，叠加基数效应或将对进口增速形成支撑，但房地产去产能继续，贸易壁垒高企，预计2024年1-2月份进口金额同比增长2.6%，较前期上涨2.4个百分点。价格方面CPI：受年春节因素因影响，消费需求扩张，居民消费价格上涨，预计2024年2月份CPI同比增长0.7%，较前期上涨1.5个百分点。PPI：国际油价主要受复杂国际环境影响再次反弹，国内需求不明显改变，上游生产资料价格低位继续底部徘徊，生活资料价格受中下游工业需求温和影响保持平稳，工业生产价格同比低位震荡消化，预计2024年2月份PPI同比下跌2.5%，与前期持平。货币金融方面人民币贷款：在稳经济、促恢复、扩内需等政策持续出台下，尤其是当前万亿增发国债的强力推动以及降准、降息等政策的短期效应明显，支撑信贷规模，但楼市回暖持续动力有待观察以及市场预期不稳仍一定程度制约信贷扩张，预计2024年2月新增人民币贷款17800亿元，同比少增300亿元。M2：伴随央行推行稳健的货币政策精准有力，国内稳增长政策持续发力，增发国债以及降准、降息的持续落地，共同支撑M2同比增速，但去年同期基数相对较高，预计2024年2月末M2同比增长8.6%，较��期下降0.1个百分点。人民币汇率：中美高层互动，经济基本面释放积极信号，对人民币形成支撑。但国内外货币政策保持分化、中美利差持续倒挂等负面因素对未来人民币形成压低。预计2024年3月人民币汇率在7.25～7.05区间双向波动。', 'content': 'Key points: Policies to stabilize growth will continue to be strengthened, the base effect of the industrial economy will grow steadily and the base effect will be superimposed on the policy push, the social zero growth rate may continue to rise due to the policy push, the investment growth rate may rise slightly, the base effect, the export growth rate may rise slightly, the low base effect, and the import volume will increase. Driven by the Spring Festival factors, the CPI growth rate has turned from negative to positive. There is no significant change on the demand side. Industrial prices continue to hover at the bottom. Stable growth policies are in force but demand is weak. The credit scale is less than the same period last year. Stable growth policies support credit but the base is high. , the year-on-year growth rate of M2 has dropped, sending positive signals at home and abroad, and the RMB may continue to trend stably in the near future. Summary Although macroeconomic stabilization policies continue to work hard, and some indicators have released positive signals for economic recovery, the internal and external environment faced by China is still more complex. The economic downturn risk still exists, domestic effective demand still hovers at the bottom, and the endogenous recovery momentum of the economy still needs to be strengthened. Restoring and expanding demand is the key to continued economic growth in the future. With the help of macro policies, the overall economy is gradually showing signs of stabilization, and subsequent efforts still need to be driven by coherent policies. Supply-side industrial added value: Policies to stabilize growth, expand domestic demand, and promote reform continue to provide support. Although pressure on industrial enterprises\\' profit growth still exists, industrial demand has recovered steadily, and the overall industrial operating rate has remained at a reasonable and moderate level. The overall industrial economy In the recovery stage, industrial added value is expected to grow by 4.5% year-on-year from January to February 2024, 2.1 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Demand-side consumption: Although RRR cuts and interest rates, domestic policies promote long-term positive investment, and leading indicators release signals of demand expansion, the external environment is tightening and demand is still under pressure. It is expected that fixed asset investment will grow by 3.5% year-on-year from January to February 2024, compared with the same period last year. It rose 0.5 percentage points in the previous period. Investment: Trillion-scale special treasury bonds are issued, domestic policies promote long-term positive investment, and some indicators release signals of demand expansion. However, the external environment is tightening and the demand side is still under pressure. Fixed asset investment is expected to increase by 3.3% year-on-year from January to October, compared with 1 -In September, it increased by 0.2 percentage points. Exports: Low base effect, policy promotion, and positive signals from the external environment. However, overseas demand has not yet stabilized. Superimposed on export controls, the export value is expected to increase by 3.7% year-on-year from January to February 2024, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous period. Import: Macroeconomic policies continue to exert force, and the \"Belt and Road\" summit was successfully held. The superimposed base effect may support the import growth rate. However, real estate capacity reduction continues and trade barriers remain high. The import value is expected to increase by 2.6% year-on-year from January to February 2024. %, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous period. CPI in terms of price: Affected by the Spring Festival factors this year, consumer demand has expanded and consumer prices have risen. The CPI is expected to increase by 0.7% year-on-year in February 2024, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous period. PPI: International oil prices have rebounded again mainly due to the complex international environment. Domestic demand has not changed significantly. Prices of upstream production materials have continued to hover at low levels. Prices of living materials have remained stable due to the moderate impact of midstream and downstream industrial demand. Industrial production prices have digested the low year-on-year fluctuations. It is expected that In February 2024, PPI fell by 2.5% year-on-year, which was the same as the previous period. In terms of currency and finance, RMB loans: With the continued introduction of policies to stabilize the economy, promote recovery, and expand domestic demand, especially the current strong promotion of trillions of additional government bonds and the obvious short-term effects of policies such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, the credit scale is supported, but the property market is recovering. Sustained momentum remains to be seen and unstable market expectations still restrict credit expansion to a certain extent. It is expected that new RMB loans will be 1.78 trillion yuan in February 2024, a decrease of 30 billion yuan year-on-year. M2: With the central bank\\'s precise and powerful implementation of prudent monetary policy, domestic stabilizing growth policies continue to be implemented, and the issuance of additional government bonds and the continued implementation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts jointly support the year-on-year growth rate of M2. However, the base number in the same period last year is relatively high, and it is expected that in February 2024 At the end of the month, M2 increased by 8.6% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous period. RMB exchange rate: Sino-US high-level interactions and economic fundamentals have released positive signals, supporting the RMB. However, negative factors such as the divergence of domestic and foreign monetary policies and the continued inversion of interest rates between China and the United States will depress the RMB in the future. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate in both directions in the range of 7.25 to 7.05 in March 2024.', 'authorid': UUID('001e9255-5522-5a6e-9434-e426fea56df9'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8688529282808304, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'EN47LB12EIHBDGA7Q8TBKP3T03VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:06:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'EN47LB12EIHBDGA7Q8TBKP3T03VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "IncompleteRead(11474 bytes read, 28240 more expected)\n", - "{'id': UUID('431608cd-644e-5569-a54e-29f5c7b0d2ee'), 'title': 'Property summary for the fourth quarter of 2023 in Greater China: Law is coming back and keeping pace with the times', 'author': 'Pang Ming , Yao Yao', 'orgName': 'JLL', 'orgCode': '80630298', 'orgSName': 'JLL', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwRQlTkNec62LOXna32pseMY=', 'researcher': '庞溟,姚耀', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000443240', '11000334862'], 'count': 1, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwRQlTkNec62LOXna32pseMY=', 'site': 'JLL', 'originalSite': 'JLL', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624103913_1.pdf?1709220624000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624103913_1.pdf?1709220624000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Property summary for the fourth quarter of 2023 in Greater China: Law is coming back and keeping pace with the times', 'originalAuthor': '庞溟,姚耀', 'originalContent': '展望2024年，在高通胀、高债务、高利率制约下，世界其他主要经济体增长动能趋弱、国际贸易下滑、全球经济增长放缓的概率仍不低。相比之下，中国经济发展的韧性和长期向好的基本趋势继续保持，全面深化改革、开放的潜力和宏观政策的空间仍然充足。在工业产出走稳走强、消费成为主增长动能、投资提速发力见效等诸多积极因素支持下，中国产业转型升级加快、经济社会高质量发展全面落实。中国依然是全球经济增长的压舱石和动力源，依然能为海内外投资者提供稳健的投资机会和多元化的资产类别。', 'content': \"Looking forward to 2024, under the constraints of high inflation, high debt, and high interest rates, the probability that the growth momentum of other major economies in the world will weaken, international trade will decline, and global economic growth will slow down is still high. In contrast, the resilience of China's economic development and the basic trend of long-term improvement continue to be maintained, and the potential for comprehensively deepening reform and opening up and the space for macro policies remain sufficient. With the support of many positive factors such as the stabilization and strengthening of industrial output, consumption becoming the main growth driver, and investment acceleration and effectiveness, China's industrial transformation and upgrading has accelerated, and high-quality economic and social development has been fully implemented. China remains the ballast and power source of global economic growth and can still provide investors at home and abroad with solid investment opportunities and diversified asset classes.\", 'authorid': UUID('fe92aabb-d365-57db-9320-1e56950adbd9'), 'sentimentScore': -0.5734536647796631, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'JBUCFK68B3FHAA7QGIKB2C1LUJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:07:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'JBUCFK68B3FHAA7QGIKB2C1LUJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('aa7a202a-663b-5462-9283-a74644042cea'), 'title': 'Macro Comment: New Directions for ESG Investment in the Face of Changes', 'author': 'Song Xuetao', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwQoHgABrRa0sMARyVCuNhvM=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwQoHgABrRa0sMARyVCuNhvM=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624103908_1.pdf?1709212361000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624103908_1.pdf?1709212361000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: New Directions for ESG Investment in the Face of Changes', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛', 'originalContent': 'ESG正处于动荡之中，而同时，市场对ESG投资的热情在近两年也有所降低。现行的ESG策略在引导投资方面存在一定的局限性。新事物的诞生往往伴随着持续的更新迭代，从而可以扎根于不同的土壤，ESG亦如是。中国经济目前正经历转型阶段，面临着技术、社会和制度方面的变革。整个转型过程充满了未知因素和风险。这些不确定因素和风险会对企业的生产和销售造成影响，从而影响其股票市场的表现。因此，我们重新从宏观角度界定了ESG的概念，聚焦风险管理，基于全球风险议题和风险传导路径，建立风险预警体系，以识别企业经营过程中可能面临的风险。宏观维度的视角并不是独立于现有ESG策略，而是对其的有效提升，可以推动尽责管理。风险提示：美国2024年大选结果反转；欧盟保持对气候议程的严格监管；国内ESG投资政策出台不及预期', 'content': \"ESG is in turmoil, and at the same time, the market's enthusiasm for ESG investing has also declined in the past two years. Current ESG strategies have certain limitations in guiding investment. The birth of new things is often accompanied by continuous updates and iterations, so that they can take root in different soils, and the same is true for ESG. China's economy is currently undergoing a transformation phase, facing technological, social and institutional changes. The entire transformation process is full of unknown factors and risks. These uncertainties and risks will have an impact on the company's production and sales, thereby affecting its stock market performance. Therefore, we have redefined the concept of ESG from a macro perspective, focused on risk management, and established a risk early warning system based on global risk issues and risk transmission paths to identify risks that companies may face in their operations. The macro-dimensional perspective is not independent of existing ESG strategies, but an effective improvement of them, which can promote responsible management. Risk warning: The results of the 2024 US election are reversed; the EU maintains strict supervision of the climate agenda; the introduction of domestic ESG investment policies falls short of expectations\", 'authorid': UUID('e546a080-7eae-5a16-8b31-ee315393fe93'), 'sentimentScore': -0.4541718438267708, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'MR9BABOEBBS1Q16FEPQCGCLKE7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:07:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'MR9BABOEBBS1Q16FEPQCGCLKE7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9922495e-09f2-5c2b-b0ff-7b8d1852b18a'), 'title': 'Overseas tracking: The three major U.S. stock indexes rose or fell, with most Chinese concept stocks rising.', 'author': 'Zhang Zhuoran', 'orgName': '川财证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000204', 'orgSName': '川财证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwWKFWFoyOayGYOmtOHj+/Jo=', 'researcher': '张卓然', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000344834'], 'count': 13, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwWKFWFoyOayGYOmtOHj+/Jo=', 'site': 'Chuancai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '川财证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624101136_1.pdf?1709206114000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624101136_1.pdf?1709206114000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas tracking: The three major U.S. stock indexes rose or fell, with most Chinese concept stocks rising.', 'originalAuthor': '张卓然', 'originalContent': '跟踪点评周二，美国三大主要股指涨跌不一。道琼斯工业平均指数收于38972.41点，下跌0.25%；标普500指数收于5078.18点,上涨0.17%；纳斯达克综合指数收于16035.3点，上涨0.37%。行业方面，科技股涨跌互现，奈飞上涨2.4%，亚马逊下跌0.68%；中概股多数上涨，高途集团上涨30.68%；中概新能源汽车股集体上涨，理想汽车涨11.78%，蔚来汽车上涨3.78%。美国经济分析局即将公布1月通胀数据，当前市场预计美联储将在3月息会维持基准利率不变，美联储短期降息的预期进一步降温。美债方面，10年期美债收益率收于4.31%，上涨了2个基点。周三，香港三大主要股指全部下跌。恒生指数收于16536.85点，下跌1.51%；恒生中国企业指数收于5688.46点，下跌2.04%；恒生香港中资企业指数收于3426.61点，下跌1.58%。恒生科技指数收3426.61点，下跌2.19%。行业方面，恒生行业指数多数下跌，恒生工业、恒生资讯科技业、恒生原材料业跌幅较深，分别下跌了2.6、2.47%、2.23%。个股方面，三一国际下跌7.06%，金川国际下跌7.04%，京东健康下跌4.52%。政策要闻1.俄罗斯央行：发布的文件表示，央行预计今年第一季度俄罗斯年通胀率将为7.6%，GDP年增长率为4.3%。俄央行写道：“俄罗斯央行预测，2024年第一季度通胀将放缓，环比可达5.7%，而年通胀率为7.6%。2024全年通胀率将降至4-4.5%，未来将保持在约4%水平上。”与此同时，第一季度GDP年增长率将小幅放缓，从2023年第四季度的4.8%降至4.3%。（财联社）公司动态1.第一太阳能：第四财季净销售11.6亿美元，分析师预期13.2亿美元；第四财季每股收益3.25美元，分析师预期3.15美元；第四财季运营利润3.978亿美元，分析师预期3.622亿美元；预计2024年净销售44亿-46亿美元，分析师预期45.6亿美元；预计2024年运营利润15亿-16亿美元，分析师预期15.2亿美元。（财联社）2.BeyondMeat：第四财季净营收7370万美元，分析师预期6680万美元；第四财季调整后EBITDA亏损1.251亿美元，分析师预期亏损0.471亿美元；预计2024年净营收3.15亿-3.45亿美元，分析师预期3.439亿美元。（财联社）风险提示：经济增长不及预期，贸易保护主义的蔓延，美联储政策超预期。', 'content': 'Tracking comments Tuesday, the three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 38972.41 points, down 0.25%; the S&P 500 closed at 5078.18 points, up 0.17%; the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 16035.3 points, up 0.37%. In terms of industry, technology stocks were mixed, with Netflix rising 2.4% and Amazon falling 0.68%; most Chinese concept stocks rose, with Gaotu Group rising 30.68%; Chinese new energy automobile stocks rose collectively, Li Auto rose 11.78%, and Wei Lai Auto rose 3.78%. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is about to release January inflation data. The current market expects the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged in March, further reducing expectations of a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. In terms of U.S. Treasuries, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.31%, an increase of 2 basis points. All three major Hong Kong stock indexes fell on Wednesday. The Hang Seng Index closed at 16536.85 points, down 1.51%; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed at 5688.46 points, down 2.04%; the Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index closed at 3426.61 points, down 1.58%. The Hang Seng Technology Index closed at 3426.61 points, down 2.19%. In terms of industries, most of the Hang Seng Industry Index fell. Hang Seng Industrial, Hang Seng Information Technology, and Hang Seng Raw Materials suffered deeper declines, falling by 2.6, 2.47%, and 2.23% respectively. In terms of individual stocks, Sany International fell 7.06%, Jinchuan International fell 7.04%, and JD Health fell 4.52%. Policy highlights 1. Central Bank of Russia: The released document stated that the central bank expects Russia’s annual inflation rate to be 7.6% and the annual GDP growth rate to be 4.3% in the first quarter of this year. The Bank of Russia wrote: \"The Bank of Russia predicts that inflation will slow down in the first quarter of 2024, reaching 5.7% quarter-on-quarter, while the annual inflation rate will be 7.6%. The inflation rate for the whole of 2024 will drop to 4-4.5%, and will remain unchanged in the future. At about the 4% level.\" At the same time, annual GDP growth will slow slightly in the first quarter, to 4.3% from 4.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023. (Financial Associated Press) Company News 1. First Solar: Net sales in the fourth fiscal quarter were US$1.16 billion, analysts expected US$1.32 billion; earnings per share in the fourth fiscal quarter were US$3.25, analysts expected US$3.15; fourth fiscal quarter Operating profit is US$397.8 million, analysts expect US$362.2 million; net sales are expected to be US$4.4 billion-4.6 billion in 2024, analysts expect US$4.56 billion; operating profit is expected to be US$1.5 billion-1.6 billion in 2024, analysts expect US$1.52 billion . (Financial Associated Press) 2. Beyond Meat: Net revenue in the fourth fiscal quarter was US$73.7 million, analysts expected US$66.8 million; adjusted EBITDA loss in the fourth fiscal quarter was US$125.1 million, analysts expected a loss of US$47.1 million; expected in 2024 Net revenue was US$315 million-345 million, while analysts expected US$343.9 million. (Financial Associated Press) Risk warning: Economic growth is lower than expected, trade protectionism is spreading, and the Federal Reserve policy exceeds expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('eea00dcc-4efb-5c15-9c64-76c8aa8e4fdc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.780790239572525, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'L9KSCHSPIIELG3608CII46JRHVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:07:53 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'L9KSCHSPIIELG3608CII46JRHVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b83dd77d-890c-598d-9bf8-c08697cfa97f'), 'title': '2023 Q4 China Equity Investment Market Index PEII released', 'author': '', 'orgName': '清科研究中心', 'orgCode': '80420467', 'orgSName': '清科研究中心', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwTFjTa3olhq5I0kW1iC2abc=', 'researcher': '', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': '', 'count': 1, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwTFjTa3olhq5I0kW1iC2abc=', 'site': 'Zero2IPO Research Center', 'originalSite': '清科研究中心', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624099476_1.pdf?1709222114000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624099476_1.pdf?1709222114000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '2023 Q4 China Equity Investment Market Index PEII released', 'originalAuthor': '', 'originalContent': '2023年第四季度，我国经济总体呈现恢复向好态势，GDP同比增长5.2%，环比增长1.0%。聚焦中国股权投资市场，自2021年创下历史峰值，近两年总体处于波动下行的调整周期。2023年第四季度，中国股权投资市场综合指数在经历了前两季度的连续上升后，再度回落至低位区间，募资、投资和退出市场的热度均有所下降。中国股权投资市场综合指数：2023Q4股权投资市场指数降至近年低位2023年第四季度，中国股权投资市场综合指数为178，同比下降3.3%，环比下降19.6%，市场活跃度处于近三年最低水平。', 'content': \"In the fourth quarter of 2023, my country's economy showed an overall recovery trend, with GDP increasing by 5.2% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month. Focusing on China's equity investment market, since it hit a historical peak in 2021, it has generally been in a volatile and downward adjustment cycle in the past two years. In the fourth quarter of 2023, China's equity investment market composite index fell back to a low range again after experiencing continuous increases in the first two quarters, and the popularity of fund-raising, investment and market exit has declined. China Equity Investment Market Comprehensive Index: The equity investment market index in 2023Q4 fell to a low in recent years. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the China Equity Investment Market Comprehensive Index was 178, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 19.6%. Market activity was at the lowest level in the past three years. .\", 'authorid': UUID('0a68eb57-c88a-5f34-9e9d-27f85e68af4f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8458567336201668, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'VE7QNB8PT4VEGJ7OC8MI7SIQPBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:07:56 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'VE7QNB8PT4VEGJ7OC8MI7SIQPBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('253f401a-f4df-53b1-8431-8ff3f50c8628'), 'title': 'What does the Red Sea supply chain crisis mean for the container shipping cycle?', 'author': 'Chen Yuhao', 'orgName': '中信建投期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80098340', 'orgSName': '中信建投期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwVI9JqSiw9Z7E/pc1x7++pA=', 'researcher': '陈宇灏', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000433644'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwVI9JqSiw9Z7E/pc1x7++pA=', 'site': 'CITIC Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中信建投期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624098725_1.pdf?1709216424000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624098725_1.pdf?1709216424000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'What does the Red Sea supply chain crisis mean for the container shipping cycle?', 'originalAuthor': '陈宇灏', 'originalContent': '历史报告的总结2023年8月18日-2023年10月1日：坚决的空头策略2023.8.18【建投航运专题】如何看待八个月后的运费-集运指数期货上市初日点评2023.9.5【建投航运专题】无根之水还是成竹在胸-如何看待现货单边下行时的强势涨停？2023年10月1日至12月下旬：顺应船司旺季涨价进行多头策略，红海事件大幅放大了现货的强势预期2023.10.1【建投航运专题】YesandNo-简析集运市场与传统大宗商品的异同暨市场前景展望（空单止盈）2023.10.13【建投航运双周报】集运市场节奏第一步-等待11月初的涨价落地2023.11.14【建投航运专题】现货的强势是否是昙花一现—期货市场缘何对于现货跳涨如此冷淡？2023.11.24【建投航运专题】认正考虑性价比，第三轮涨价将进一步延长现货的强势期2023.12.3【建投航运双周报】如何解读下周一或以平稳为主的SCFIS标的指数2023.12.16【建投航运快评】天鹅初振翅-关注绕行的影响能否长久2023年12月下旬至今：整体等待盘面出现偏离的机会2024.1.5【建投航运专题】尴尬等待运费回调幅度兑现的04合约与云里雾里的远月合约（给出了4月交割结算价的预期）2024.1.8【建投航运快评】1月运费初见高度，如何看待4月合约交割结算价（该周的交易日里便出现了偏离）2024.1.16【建投航运专题】春节前现货高峰将至，辩证看待盘面价格', 'content': 'Summary of historical reports August 18, 2023 - October 1, 2023: Determined short strategy 2023.8.18 [Jiantou Shipping Special Topic] How to view freight rates eight months later - Comments on the first day of the listing of container shipping index futures 2023.9.5 [ Jiantou Shipping Special Topic] Water without roots or a well-thought-out plan - How to treat the strong daily limit when the spot price unilaterally declines? October 1 to late December 2023: Complying with shipping companies’ peak season price increases, they carried out a long-term strategy. The Red Sea incident greatly amplified the strong expectations for spot goods. 2023.10.1 [Jiantou Shipping Special Topic] Yes and No - A brief analysis of the relationship between the container shipping market and traditional commodities. Similarities and Differences and Market Prospects (Short Orders and Take Profit) 2023.10.13 [Jiantou Shipping Biweekly Report] The first step in the rhythm of the container shipping market - waiting for the price increase in early November to take effect 2023.11.14 [Jiantou Shipping Special Topic] Is the strength of the spot a flash in the pan? —Why is the futures market so indifferent to spot jumps? 2023.11.24 [Jiantou Shipping Special Topic] Taking into account the cost-effectiveness, the third round of price increases will further extend the strong period of the spot 2023.12.3 [Jiantou Shipping Bi-weekly Report] How to interpret the SCFIS underlying index next Monday or mainly stable 2023.12 .16 [Jiantou Shipping Quick Review] The swan is flapping its wings for the first time - Pay attention to whether the impact of the detour will be long-lasting. From late December 2023 to the present: the whole is waiting for the opportunity for the market to deviate. 2024.1.5 [Jiantou Shipping Special Topic] Awkwardly waiting for the correction of freight rates. The realized 04 contract and the far-month contract that are still in the clouds (given the expectation of April delivery and settlement price) 2024.1.8 [Jiantou Shipping Quick Review] January freight rates have initially reached a high, how to view the April contract delivery and settlement price (The deviation occurred in the trading days of that week) 2024.1.16 [Jiantou Shipping Special Topic] The spot peak is approaching before the Spring Festival. Look at the market price dialectically', 'authorid': UUID('eecf8bec-5501-5819-b61a-483d7554f56c'), 'sentimentScore': 0.05178631655871868, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'QVGR0V9P61MTMANTD4TT3NRHVRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:07:58 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'QVGR0V9P61MTMANTD4TT3NRHVRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('08c3575e-ad54-5005-9332-daf0da60c565'), 'title': 'Macro Research Weekly Report: SORA concept ignited market hot spots, Shanghai Stock Index posted 8 consecutive positive results', 'author': 'Xu Ying', 'orgName': '麦高证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80049237', 'orgSName': '麦高证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwTFfuEWGOo6Nel2M5xnTbWw=', 'researcher': '徐滢', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000449878'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwTFfuEWGOo6Nel2M5xnTbWw=', 'site': 'Mago Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '麦高证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624098550_1.pdf?1709203365000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624098550_1.pdf?1709203365000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Research Weekly Report: SORA concept ignited market hot spots, Shanghai Stock Index posted 8 consecutive positive results', 'originalAuthor': '徐滢', 'originalContent': '上周国内主要新闻：1.5年期以上LPR下行，金融支持实体经济力度进一步提升。2.证监会集思广益，释放共建市场稳信心暖意。3.高盛、瑞银报告表示中国春节假期消费好于预期。4.国资委要求央企加快布局发展人工智能产业。5.证监会：促进量化交易规范健康发展。上周国际主要新闻：1.高利率下美银行业风险回升。2.美元汇率短期或维持相对强势。3.德国央行：德国经济可能陷入技术性衰退。4.降息时点预期后移，美债收益率阶段性走高。5.美联储会议纪要：大多数官员指出过快降息的风险。一周市场回顾：上周是春节后的首个交易周，沪深两市延续强势反弹态势，连续5个交易日均以阳线报收，其他主要指数也全面上涨，沪市更是收复2900点，周五收盘站稳3000点，强势特征明显。从资金面上看，随着市场情绪不断回暖，资金积极加仓，北向资金继续维持净流入。申万一级行业全线上涨，市场热点突出，AI概念全周投资热情高涨。开年后市场交易环境有所改善，监管层召开多场座谈会，听取各阶层投资者意见，及时回应市场关切问题，多措并举稳定市场。上周，量化交易报告制度平稳落地，这是沪深交易所首次针对量化交易集中推出系列监管措施，表明了监管的态度，也体现出监管部门加强量化交易监管、维护市场稳定的决心。从盘面上看，SORA概念全周持续活跃，文生视频AI股引爆科技题材股，在题材股活跃的同时，银行、非银金融等相关金融股不断创出新高，市场活跃度不断增强。本周即将出台经济数据，结合火爆的春节消费数据，经济数据有望持续修复。下阶段，两会临近，重要会议前夕市场或将平稳运行。风险提示：政策不及预期，国际贸易政策风险，地缘政治冲突风险。', 'content': \"Main domestic news last week: LPR over 1.5 years declined, and financial support for the real economy further increased. 2. The China Securities Regulatory Commission brainstorms and releases the warmth of confidence in jointly building market stability. 3. Goldman Sachs and UBS reported that China’s Spring Festival holiday consumption was better than expected. 4. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission requires central enterprises to accelerate the layout and development of the artificial intelligence industry. 5. China Securities Regulatory Commission: Promote the healthy development of quantitative trading standards. Major international news last week: 1. Risks in the U.S. banking industry have increased under high interest rates. 2. The U.S. dollar exchange rate may remain relatively strong in the short term. 3. Bundesbank: The German economy may fall into a technical recession. 4. The timing of interest rate cuts is expected to move later, and U.S. bond yields are rising periodically. 5. Fed meeting minutes: Most officials pointed to the risks of cutting interest rates too quickly. Weekly market review: Last week was the first trading week after the Spring Festival. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued their strong rebound, closing with a positive line for five consecutive trading days. Other major indexes also rose across the board, and the Shanghai stock market even recovered 2,900 points. It closed at 3,000 points on Friday, with obvious strong characteristics. From a financial perspective, as market sentiment continues to recover, funds are actively adding positions, and northbound funds continue to maintain a net inflow. Shenwan's first-level industries rose across the board, market hot spots were highlighted, and investment enthusiasm for the AI \\u200b\\u200bconcept was high throughout the week. The market trading environment has improved since the beginning of the new year. Regulators have held multiple symposiums to listen to the opinions of investors from all walks of life, respond to market concerns in a timely manner, and take multiple measures to stabilize the market. Last week, the quantitative trading reporting system was smoothly implemented. This is the first time that the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have launched a series of regulatory measures for quantitative trading. It demonstrates the regulatory attitude and also reflects the determination of the regulatory authorities to strengthen the supervision of quantitative trading and maintain market stability. Judging from the market, the SORA concept continued to be active throughout the week, and Vincent Video AI stocks detonated technology theme stocks. While theme stocks were active, banks, non-bank finance and other related financial stocks continued to hit new highs, and market activity continued to increase. Economic data will be released this week. Combined with the hot Spring Festival consumption data, economic data is expected to continue to recover. In the next stage, the two sessions are approaching, and the market may operate smoothly on the eve of the important meeting. Risk warning: policies that fall short of expectations, international trade policy risks, and geopolitical conflict risks.\", 'authorid': UUID('a7f043a0-c180-553f-9a30-81d8998aa3b6'), 'sentimentScore': -0.03050541877746582, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'J49E14G1D2HGHL1A7TCU3QGSINVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:01 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'J49E14G1D2HGHL1A7TCU3QGSINVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a85bc82b-9417-5200-b810-93c76800f438'), 'title': 'Overseas market tracking: interest rates top, turning cautious', 'author': 'Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli', 'orgName': '上海证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000155', 'orgSName': '上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwcQ7MOgPjpTfKlbXonoYLSk=', 'researcher': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172617', '11000235839'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwcQ7MOgPjpTfKlbXonoYLSk=', 'site': 'Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '上海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624098546_1.pdf?1709203090000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624098546_1.pdf?1709203090000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas market tracking: interest rates top, turning cautious', 'originalAuthor': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'originalContent': '投资摘要海外市场跟踪——（2.19-2.23）海外股市除英国指数外集体上涨；海外国债收益率涨跌均有；美元指数有所回落，美元兑除人民币、日元、瑞士法郎外均有所贬值；CRB指数有所下跌，主要商品除铜、小麦、金外均有所下跌。欧洲通胀持续缓解1月欧盟CPI回落至3.1%，下降0.3个百分点，环比下降0.2%，由正转负。欧盟1月通胀持平于去年11月的低点，通胀压力进一步缓解。在1月的会议中，欧洲央行宣布维持利率水平不变，欧洲央行认为当前如果维持足够长的时间，将对通胀目标的实现做出重大贡献。而关于降息，欧洲央行行长坚持自己1月份稍早在达沃斯的表态——夏季可能降息，但同时也强调委员会的共识是现在讨论降息还为时过早。我们认为，经济的疲软以及通胀的回落也使得欧洲央行降息的必要性上升，同时欧洲央行也在等待合适的时机。利率顶部，转向谨慎美联储1月会议纪要公布。与会者认为经济保持稳步扩张；就业增长放缓，但仍然强劲；通胀有所缓解，但仍处于高位。对于经济前景，与会者认为目前的货币政策立场是限制性的，将继续对经济活动和通胀造成下行压力，因此产品和劳动力市场的供需将继续趋于平衡。对于政策前景，与会者判断，政策利率可能处于本轮紧缩周期的峰值，但在对通胀可持续向2%迈进的信心增强之前，降低联邦基金利率的目标区间是不合适的。与会者强调了限制性货币政策立场需要维持多长时间的不确定性，并产生了一定分歧。整体来看，当前利率已在顶部，但转向仍需等待通胀回落的进一步确认。风险提示俄乌冲突、中东冲突等地缘政治事件恶化，国际金融形势改变；中国通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。', 'content': \"Investment Summary Overseas Market Tracking - (2.19-2.23) Overseas stock markets rose collectively except for the British index; overseas debt yields rose and fell; the U.S. dollar index fell back, and the U.S. dollar rose against all but the RMB, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc Depreciation; the CRB index fell, and all major commodities except copper, wheat, and gold fell. Inflation in Europe continues to ease. In January, the EU CPI fell back to 3.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, turning from positive to negative. Inflation in the European Union in January was flat at the low point in November last year, and inflationary pressures further eased. At the January meeting, the European Central Bank announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged. The European Central Bank believed that if maintained for a long enough time, it would make a significant contribution to the achievement of the inflation target. Regarding interest rate cuts, the president of the European Central Bank stuck to his statement in Davos earlier in January that an interest rate cut may be possible in the summer, but also emphasized that the committee's consensus is that it is too early to discuss an interest rate cut. We believe that the weakening economy and falling inflation have also increased the need for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates. At the same time, the European Central Bank is also waiting for the right time. Interest rates are at the top, turning cautious as the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January meeting are released. Participants believed that the economy maintained steady expansion; employment growth slowed but remained strong; inflation eased but remained high. Regarding the economic outlook, participants believed that the current monetary policy stance is restrictive and will continue to exert downward pressure on economic activity and inflation, so supply and demand in product and labor markets will continue to balance. Regarding the policy outlook, participants judged that the policy interest rate may be at the peak of this tightening cycle, but it is inappropriate to lower the target range of the federal funds rate before confidence that inflation can sustainably move towards 2% has increased. Participants highlighted the uncertainty and disagreement over how long a restrictive monetary policy stance would need to be maintained. Overall, the current interest rate is at the top, but the turnaround still needs to wait for further confirmation of a fall in inflation. Risks suggest that geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East conflict have worsened, and the international financial situation has changed; China's inflation has risen beyond expectations, and China's monetary policy has changed beyond expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('23836b0d-75e0-5a50-a109-862fde53e3bf'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8714799247682095, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '45M86EV8SGEMKR5KQU6SSR16FNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:03 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '45M86EV8SGEMKR5KQU6SSR16FNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6b803c25-2740-58ab-a56d-4230a9cc6fb9'), 'title': 'macroeconomic review', 'author': 'Li Qian', 'orgName': '第一上海证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80054871', 'orgSName': '第一上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwbQZll/8WAGpWnHVypujMpk=', 'researcher': '李倩', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000235832'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwbQZll/8WAGpWnHVypujMpk=', 'site': 'First Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '第一上海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624098544_1.pdf?1709220013000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624098544_1.pdf?1709220013000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'macroeconomic review', 'originalAuthor': '李倩', 'originalContent': '【宏观经济评论】第一上海——美股宏观策略周报经济数据上周公布了PMI数据，制造业PMI为51.5，表现不错，也是一年半以来的新高，主要因为订单增长强劲。服务业PMI为51.3，低于预期的52.3，有所回落，也算是均值回归。总体来说美国经济还是较为景气，预计今年一季度GDP也还是一个正增长，年化增速在2%左右。通胀方面，虽然2月的成本通胀为2020年10月以来的最小增幅，但是产出通胀，即人们所支付的费用，略有加速。利率方面，上周美联储公布了近期议息会议的纪要：大部分官员认为，目前不急于降息。市场对此是有些不乐意的。最近联储官员的密集发声，旨在为这个决定造势，也是对市场预期进行管理，避免不必要的波动。上周美国有一个160亿美元20年期国债的拍卖，结果不太好，得标利率为4.595，大幅高于上次的4.423。这也拖累了10年国债利率，上升达4.3左右。相应也推高了美国的房贷利率：截止2月16号，美国的30年期固定按揭贷款合同利率上升19个基点，达到7.06%，这对刚开始复苏的房地产市场构成一个打击。上周高盛数据显示，上周机构投资者连续4个交易日抛售其科技股头寸，为7个月以来最快的速度。机构投资者选择��多余资金投向波动率较小的股票如必选消费。现在市场一个主流看法是，一季报的财报季结束之后，驱动美股上涨的EPS因素已经告一段落，接下来的市场交易主线将倾向于经济数据和美联储的倾向等这些宏观因子。但是高盛自己更倾向于乐观。高盛认为短期内科技股涨势还会继续，将现在与历史相比：1994年的美国IT资本支出和生产力激增，开始纳指多年上升趋势，以及1999年到2000的科技股大起大落。高盛认为本轮上涨要弱的多，从大盘股的估值来看的话，距离泡沫区域还很遥远。目前纳指的市盈率为35倍，在上世纪的90年代末的科技泡沫中它曾达到过90倍。尽管高盛的判断值得商榷，但这些对于我们来说是一个重要参考，可以了解华尔街是怎么看待当下这个市场的。我们认为35倍跟指数历史上的PE区间相比，显然已经是非常贵了；2000年的估值泡沫也不应该成为我们的参照物，我们还是应该相对谨慎一些。大摩根据对冲基金公布的13F做出了一个评估，空头头寸已经降至7巨头已发行股票的1%，为2015年以来的最低水平；看涨押注还在继续增长，对冲基金所持有的7巨头的股票还在继续增加，散户也是。但这应该是上个季度末的数据，相对滞后。', 'content': \"[Macroeconomic Commentary] First Shanghai - U.S. stock macro strategy weekly economic data released PMI data last week. The manufacturing PMI was 51.5, which is a good performance and a new high in a year and a half, mainly due to strong order growth. The service PMI was 51.3, lower than the expected 52.3. It has fallen back, which can be regarded as mean reversion. Generally speaking, the U.S. economy is still relatively prosperous, and GDP is expected to grow at a positive rate in the first quarter of this year, with an annualized growth rate of about 2%. In terms of inflation, while cost inflation in February was the smallest increase since October 2020, output inflation, which is what people pay, accelerated slightly. In terms of interest rates, last week the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its recent interest rate meeting: most officials believe that there is no rush to cut interest rates at the moment. The market is somewhat unhappy with this. The recent intensive statements by Federal Reserve officials are aimed at building momentum for this decision and also to manage market expectations and avoid unnecessary fluctuations. Last week, there was an auction of $16 billion in 20-year Treasury bonds in the United States. The results were not very good. The winning interest rate was 4.595, which was significantly higher than the last time of 4.423. This also dragged down the 10-year Treasury bond interest rate, which rose to around 4.3. This has also pushed up U.S. mortgage interest rates: As of February 16, the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage loan contract interest rate has increased by 19 basis points to 7.06%, which is a blow to the real estate market that has just begun to recover. Data from Goldman Sachs last week showed that institutional investors sold off their technology stock positions for four consecutive trading days last week, the fastest pace in seven months. Institutional investors choose to invest their excess funds in stocks with less volatility, such as must-have consumption. A mainstream view in the market is that after the first-quarter earnings season ends, the EPS factors that drive the rise of U.S. stocks have come to an end, and the next main line of market transactions will tend to be economic data and the Fed's tendencies and other macro factors. But Goldman Sachs itself is more optimistic. Goldman Sachs believes that the rally in technology stocks will continue in the short term, comparing the present with history: the surge in U.S. IT capital expenditures and productivity in 1994, which started the Nasdaq's multi-year upward trend, and the ups and downs of technology stocks from 1999 to 2000. Goldman Sachs believes that this round of rise is much weaker. Judging from the valuation of large-cap stocks, it is still far from the bubble zone. The Nasdaq currently trades at 35 times earnings, compared with 90 times during the tech bubble of the late 1990s. Although Goldman Sachs' judgment is questionable, these are an important reference for us to understand how Wall Street views the current market. We believe that 35 times is obviously very expensive compared with the historical PE range of the index; the valuation bubble in 2000 should not be our reference, and we should still be relatively cautious. Morgan Stanley made an assessment based on the 13F released by hedge funds. Short positions have dropped to 1% of the issued shares of the 7 giants, the lowest level since 2015; bullish bets continue to grow, and hedge funds hold The stocks of the Big 7 continue to increase, and so do retail investors. But this should be the data at the end of last quarter, which is relatively lagging.\", 'authorid': UUID('65b3a723-6567-5c2c-9874-a85c5d112b4f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7977784499526024, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '7I4ED0BG96GK9EPVNGMUK10E7JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:05 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '7I4ED0BG96GK9EPVNGMUK10E7JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f1dcb94b-595a-5f46-8da5-7193557472a1'), 'title': 'Macro daily: A-shares adjust to heavy volume, but remain optimistic in the future', 'author': 'Cai Shaoli, Gao Cong', 'orgName': '华泰期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80055521', 'orgSName': '华泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwQW4IMI5dheykY/EyveuEjU=', 'researcher': '蔡劭立,高聪', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000304033', '11000304231'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwQW4IMI5dheykY/EyveuEjU=', 'site': 'Huatai Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624096272_1.pdf?1709201800000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624096272_1.pdf?1709201800000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro daily: A-shares adjust to heavy volume, but remain optimistic in the future', 'originalAuthor': '蔡劭立,高聪', 'originalContent': '策略摘要商品期货：黑色、有色、化工逢低买入套保；其他中性；股指期货：逢低买入套保。核心观点市场分析A股放量调整，后市保持乐观。2月28日，A股放量调整，两市成交额突破万亿，目前来看重演春节前调整的概率相对较低，市场微观结构上的抛压此前已经得到释放，后续核心仍是围绕经济预期和事实兑现上来。2月23日，中央财经委员会第四次会议，研究大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新问题，研究有效降低全社会物流成本问题。其中，中央财政和地方政府联动，统筹支持设备更新和以旧换新值得进一步关注，目前汽车、家电等行业主要受益，以及近期6g概念也引起市场关注，对应工业品板块受益。2月20日，央行超预期下调5年期LPR利率25bp，与此同时1年期LPR维持不变，此举稳定地产市场预期信号强烈。随后国内股指和商品均表现偏强，目前核心在于节后复工复产进度，叠加今年3月4日和3月5日开幕的两会，宏观上关注政策预期和复工复产事实共振向上的可能性。节后第一周，商品交投清淡。黑色方面，钢厂原料补库不及预期，铁水产量小幅下滑，仍需关注复工复产进度；有色整体延续季节性累库趋势，下游需求平淡；能源短期受到俄乌冲突导致的炼厂加工量下降以及红海事件的支撑；化工板块芳烃线具有韧性，关注苯乙烯、PX、PTA的机会，目前处于驱动强，但估值亦偏高的状态，此外橡胶供给受限需求则逐步恢复，亦可以关注；农产品方面，节后猪价有所走强，关注远端供应短缺下的行情抢跑可能。贵金属方面，趋势上继续保持乐观，近期美元指数有所回落，等待美债利率信号进一步确认。风险地缘政治风险（能源板块上行风险）；全球经济超预期下行（风险资产下行风险）；美联储超预期收紧（风险资产下行风险）；海外流动性风险冲击（风险资产下行风险）。', 'content': \"Strategy summary: Commodity futures: black, non-ferrous, chemical, buy on dips for hedging; other neutral; stock index futures: buy on dips for hedging. The core point of view is market analysis: A-shares have been adjusted due to heavy volume, and the market outlook remains optimistic. On February 28, A-shares experienced heavy volume adjustments, and the turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion. At present, the probability of a repeat of the adjustments before the Spring Festival is relatively low. The selling pressure on the market microstructure has been released before, and the core of the follow-up is still around economic expectations. And the facts come up. On February 23, the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Committee was held to study the issue of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, and to study the issue of effectively reducing logistics costs for the whole society. Among them, the central government's coordination with local governments to coordinate and support equipment updates and trade-ins deserves further attention. At present, the automobile, home appliance and other industries are mainly benefiting, and the recent 6G concept has also attracted market attention, corresponding to the industrial products sector. On February 20, the central bank lowered the 5-year LPR interest rate by 25bp beyond expectations. At the same time, the 1-year LPR remained unchanged. This move has a strong signal of stabilizing the real estate market. Subsequently, both domestic stock indexes and commodities performed relatively strongly. The current focus is on the progress of resumption of work and production after the holiday, superimposed on the two sessions that opened on March 4 and March 5 this year. From a macro perspective, attention is paid to the possibility that policy expectations and the facts of resumption of work and production will resonate upward. . In the first week after the holiday, commodity trading was light. On the black side, steel mills' raw material replenishment fell short of expectations, and molten iron production declined slightly. We still need to pay attention to the progress of resumption of work and production; non-ferrous metals as a whole continued the seasonal inventory accumulation trend, and downstream demand was flat; energy was affected by the short-term decline in refinery processing volume caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As well as the support of the Red Sea incident; the aromatics line of the chemical industry sector is resilient. Pay attention to the opportunities of styrene, PX, and PTA. It is currently in a strong driving state, but the valuation is also on the high side. In addition, the demand for rubber supply is gradually recovering, and you can also pay attention to it. ; In terms of agricultural products, pig prices have strengthened after the holiday, and we are concerned about the possibility of a market jump due to remote supply shortages. In terms of precious metals, the trend continues to remain optimistic. The U.S. dollar index has fallen back recently, waiting for further confirmation of U.S. bond interest rate signals. Risks include geopolitical risks (upward risks for the energy sector); unexpected downturns in the global economy (downward risks for risky assets); unexpected tightening by the Federal Reserve (downward risks for risky assets); overseas liquidity risk impacts (downward risks for risky assets).\", 'authorid': UUID('1f2a6e53-dc21-5b64-b53e-783c1fe16451'), 'sentimentScore': -0.4900495409965515, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'JKOVQQKF8B5N7MRNC34A95UE47VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:08 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'JKOVQQKF8B5N7MRNC34A95UE47VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ebd85b14-6db0-55c5-9aed-dbbcdb453390'), 'title': 'Central Bank Operation Daily', 'author': 'Li Mingyu', 'orgName': '新湖期货股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80030099', 'orgSName': '新湖期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwQO7zWNqdBU4mFwF7ZWIC+s=', 'researcher': '李明玉', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197321'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwQO7zWNqdBU4mFwF7ZWIC+s=', 'site': 'Xinhu Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '新湖期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624095602_1.pdf?1709200570000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624095602_1.pdf?1709200570000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Central Bank Operation Daily', 'originalAuthor': '李明玉', 'originalContent': '公开市场操作：2月29日|中国央行今日进行1170亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.80%，与此前持平。因今日有580亿元14天期逆回购到期，当日实现净投放590亿元。MLF操作：今日央行无MLF投放与操作，中标利率为2.50%，与此前一致PSL操作：今日央行无PSL投放与操作。TMLF：今日无TMLF到期与操作。国库定存操作：今日无国库定存到期及操作。', 'content': 'Open market operations: February 29 | The People’s Bank of China conducted a 117 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation today, with the winning rate at 1.80%, the same as before. As 58 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repos expired today, a net investment of 59 billion yuan was realized that day. MLF operation: There is no MLF placement or operation by the central bank today, and the winning interest rate is 2.50%, which is consistent with the previous PSL operation: There is no PSL placement or operation by the central bank today. TMLF: There are no TMLF expirations and operations today. Treasury fixed deposit operations: There are no treasury fixed deposit expirations and operations today.', 'authorid': UUID('06615761-5e26-57d2-b056-2b9f0d8913bd'), 'sentimentScore': 0.03303234465420246, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '7F2OK98DJJ98B3F828DQ6AAFENVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:10 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '7F2OK98DJJ98B3F828DQ6AAFENVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3e2f4166-e0aa-59b5-b94e-4e73c00aa851'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic special research: construction of fiscal policy intensity index (Part 2)', 'author': 'Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwV3p1sEd3mxICCgmir0S+YA=', 'researcher': '董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwV3p1sEd3mxICCgmir0S+YA=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624095491_1.pdf?1709200107000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624095491_1.pdf?1709200107000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic special research: construction of fiscal policy intensity index (Part 2)', 'originalAuthor': '董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点在上篇中，我们初步建立了月频的财政力度指数，并发现其逆周期性与对基建的部分领先性。本篇进一步探讨该指数的有效性及内涵，并进行拓展探讨。首先对拐点进行统计，可以看到近几年财政政策力度指数对基建投资的走势领先性较为明显，平均领先2-3个月左右。由于基建投资的主要资金来源之一为国家预算内资金，因此财政投向基建领域的支出自然而然对基建投资具有领先效果。将财政力度指数与货币供给和社融数据对比，发现财政力度指数与M2增速正相关性较强，且领先于货币供给。其原因可能是财政存款反向影响基础货币，从而导致与货币供给的负相关，即财政支出强度与货币供给增速正相关。其次社融存量的同比增速与财政政策力度有一定相关性，但并不明显，或与近期货币政策传导不畅有关。单独观察社融中的政府债则明显更为相关。讨论了财政政策力度指数的有效性后，一个自然而然的问题是，力度指数是否纵向可比？我们认为财政力度更多的是方向性的指引，而非在于绝对值水平。一方面我国财政发力方式和支出结构发生变动，专项债使用范围持续扩大；另一方面经济结构剧烈变动，基建投资边际收益下降，财政拉动经济的抓手和效率都在变化。随后本文构建当月版本的财政政策力度指数。基础的指数底层指标均为累计同比变动，将底层指标全部替换为当月同比，归一化后运用与原指标相同权重，建立一个基于当月同比的财政力度指数（当月），可以看到该指标的波动性提高并围绕原指标波动。对比三个常见的用于观察财政力度的备选指标，即财政脉冲、广义财政支出与政府融资与财政存款的变动，可以发现我们的基础指标从理论上更加全面，效果较好。最后尝试将底层指标简化。分别从收入、支出和赤字三个方面选取广义财政收入累计同比、广义财政支出累计同比、广义赤字率同比三个底层指标，运用熵值法重新计算权重并合成，与原指数进行比较，可以看到简化版的财政政策力度指数在走势上与原指数较为相似，但波动相对更大。风险提示：政策不及预期，经济增速下滑。', 'content': \"Core Points In the previous article, we initially established a monthly fiscal strength index and discovered its countercyclicality and partial leadership in infrastructure construction. This article further explores the validity and connotation of the index and conducts an expanded discussion. First, by counting the turning points, we can see that in recent years, the fiscal policy intensity index has been leading the trend of infrastructure investment, with an average lead of about 2-3 months. Since one of the main sources of funds for infrastructure investment is national budget funds, fiscal expenditures in the field of infrastructure will naturally have a leading effect on infrastructure investment. Comparing the fiscal strength index with money supply and social financing data, we found that the fiscal strength index has a strong positive correlation with M2 growth and is ahead of the money supply. The reason may be that fiscal deposits have a negative impact on base money, leading to a negative correlation with money supply, that is, the intensity of fiscal spending is positively correlated with the growth rate of money supply. Secondly, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock has a certain correlation with the strength of fiscal policy, but it is not obvious, or it may be related to the recent poor transmission of monetary policy. It is obviously more relevant to look at government bonds in social finance alone. After discussing the effectiveness of the fiscal policy intensity index, a natural question is, is the intensity index comparable vertically? We believe that fiscal intensity is more of a directional guide than an absolute level. On the one hand, my country's fiscal efforts and expenditure structure have changed, and the scope of use of special bonds has continued to expand; on the other hand, the economic structure has changed dramatically, the marginal returns of infrastructure investment have declined, and the focus and efficiency of fiscal stimulus for the economy are changing. This article then constructs the current month’s version of the fiscal policy intensity index. The underlying indicators of the basic index are all cumulative year-on-year changes. All underlying indicators are replaced with the year-on-year changes of the current month. After normalization, the same weight as the original indicators is used to establish a fiscal strength index (current month) based on the year-on-year changes of the current month. You can see the performance of this indicator. Volatility increases and moves around the original indicator. Comparing three common alternative indicators for observing fiscal strength, namely fiscal pulse, broad fiscal expenditures, and changes in government financing and fiscal deposits, we can find that our basic indicators are more comprehensive in theory and have better effects. Finally try to simplify the underlying indicators. Three underlying indicators are selected from the three aspects of revenue, expenditure and deficit. The cumulative year-on-year general fiscal revenue, the cumulative year-on-year general fiscal expenditure, and the generalized deficit rate are respectively selected from the three aspects. The entropy method is used to recalculate the weights and synthesize them. Compared with the original index, you can see The trend of the simplified version of the fiscal policy intensity index is similar to the original index, but the fluctuations are relatively larger. Risk warning: Policies fall short of expectations and economic growth slows.\", 'authorid': UUID('7f0ba462-39fa-5efc-b2aa-f8b8339a39b2'), 'sentimentScore': 0.30822712276130915, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'RA34QOVO10UEOUEUU85Q10SARRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:13 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'RA34QOVO10UEOUEUU85Q10SARRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0495c924-1533-5b89-b2c5-e6956755dd30'), 'title': 'Policy Weekly Issue 12: Demographic Transition: What are the “depressions” in fertility rates?', 'author': 'Zhao Wei', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwQuMYXjb0KvHJEaCLNm5FJc=', 'researcher': '赵伟', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwQuMYXjb0KvHJEaCLNm5FJc=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624092821_1.pdf?1709198073000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624092821_1.pdf?1709198073000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Policy Weekly Issue 12: Demographic Transition: What are the “depressions” in fertility rates?', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟', 'originalContent': '作为影响经济增速与发展模式的关键变量，全球人口发展现状如何？基于生育率视角系统梳理，可供参考。一问：如何理解人口转变理论？基于经济、社会制度等因素解释人口再生产模式的转变全球人口发展至今，学术界先后三次提出人口转变理论，用以描述人口再生产模式的转变。经典人口转变理论把工业化发展时期与人口再生产类型匹配，将“人口转变”的原因解释为，工业化带来了更好的医疗条件，降低了人口的死亡率，且城市化发展改变了传统社会生活方式，个人主义得到发展的等。第二次人口转变理论则关注到生育率持续下降背后的社会制度和文化观念等因素。第二次人口转变理论指出，劳动参与率提升增强女性经济地位，高等教育发展亦使女性更加注重自我价值的实现；随着配偶关系越来越趋于平等，女性初婚年龄上升、生育行为选择多元和生育年龄推迟等因素均推动生育率持续下降。“总和生育率”是描述分析生育率的常用指标，其中，人口更替水平生育率和总和生育率警戒线概念被普遍提及。总和生育率由某个时期15-49岁的女性的分年龄生育率的加总得出，表示一个国家或地区的女性在育龄期间生育子女的平均数。国际上通常认为总和生育率1.5左右是一条“高度敏感警���线”。二问：全球生育率现状如何？全球人口发展进入低出生率、低死亡率和较低人口增长率阶段2021年全球人口发展进入低出生率、低死亡率和较低人口增长率阶段。1950年代，全球人口快速增长，人口增长率由1950年的1.73%提升至1963年的2.27%、达到人口增长率峰值。此后六十年中，全球人口出生率、死亡率、增长率均呈现持续下滑态势，2021年为1.69%、0.88%、0.82%、分别较1963年回落2.05%、0.60%、1.5%。从人口增速看，1960年代中期以来，东亚、东南亚地区，中等偏上收入国家人口增长率降幅居前。1963年,中等偏上收入国家人口增速达2.8%峰值，此后快速回落，2021年中等偏上收入国家人口增速为0.23%、仅略高于高收入国家的0.16%。与之对应，东亚和东南亚地区人口增速2021年仅0.2%、较1963年峰值下降近2.7%。中等偏上收入国家人口增速下滑主因生育率拖累。1963年以来，中等偏上收入国家总和生育率加速下滑，由1963年的6.3下滑至2021年的1.52、接近低生育率“警戒线”，亦低于同期高收入国家的1.56。对应地，2021年东亚和东南亚地区总和生育率仅1.5、为世界最低水平，较1963年的6.4峰值下降明显。三问：生育率“洼地”有何特征？经济发展较为发达，女性受教育程度较高、劳动参与率较高等分发展程度看，当前全球总和生育率“洼地”集中于发达、高收入国家；分地区看，东亚、南欧等地区总和生育率处于最低水平。2021年，发达国家及高收入国家总和生育率处于最低水平，分别为1.52、1.56，低于2.1人口更替水平；分地区看，2021年欧洲国家总和生育率普遍较低、平均为1.50，东亚地区国家总和生育率最低、近1.17。“经典人口转变理论”或可部分解释欧洲及东亚地区较低的总和生育率。2021年，韩国、新加坡、中国等和部分群岛地区总和生育率较低，均低于1.5的低生育率“警戒线”；其中，韩国和中国香港总和生育率甚至不到1。究其背后原因，依据“经典人口转变理论”，较高的人均GDP、较长的平均预期寿命和较高婴儿存活率等或可部分解释。依据“第二次人口转变理论”，生育率的持续下降受到社会制度和文化观念等因素影响。各国2021年数据显示，女性受教育年限越高，总和生育率普遍越低；亚洲地区样本数据显示，其总和生育率亦受育龄女性结婚率、女性平均生育年龄等婚恋因素以及女性受教育年限、女性劳动参与率等女性发展因素影响。风险提示:国际经济形势变化超预期，人口增长不及预期。', 'content': 'As a key variable that affects economic growth and development patterns, what is the current status of global population development? A systematic review based on the fertility rate perspective is available for reference. Question 1: How to understand the demographic transition theory? Based on economic, social system and other factors to explain the transformation of the population reproduction model, the global population has developed so far. The academic community has proposed the population transition theory three times to describe the transformation of the population reproduction model. The classic population transition theory matches the period of industrialization development with the type of population reproduction, and explains the reason for \"demographic transition\" as that industrialization has brought better medical conditions, reduced the mortality rate of the population, and urbanization development has changed traditional social life. way, in which individualism is developed, etc. The second demographic transition theory focuses on factors such as social systems and cultural concepts behind the continued decline in fertility. The theory of the second demographic transition points out that the increase in labor participation rate has enhanced women\\'s economic status, and the development of higher education has also made women pay more attention to the realization of self-worth; as spouse relationships become more and more equal, women\\'s age at first marriage has increased, and their reproductive behavior choices have diversified. Factors such as and delayed childbearing age have all contributed to the continued decline in fertility rates. \"Total fertility rate\" is a commonly used indicator to describe and analyze fertility. Among them, the concepts of population replacement level fertility rate and total fertility rate warning line are commonly mentioned. The total fertility rate is calculated by summing up the age-specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 in a certain period, and represents the average number of children that women in a country or region have during their childbearing years. The international community generally considers the total fertility rate to be around 1.5 as a \"highly sensitive warning line.\" Question 2: What is the current status of global fertility rates? The global population development has entered a stage of low birth rate, low death rate and low population growth rate. In 2021, the global population development has entered a stage of low birth rate, low death rate and low population growth rate. In the 1950s, the global population grew rapidly. The population growth rate increased from 1.73% in 1950 to 2.27% in 1963, reaching the peak population growth rate. In the following six decades, the global population birth rate, death rate, and growth rate have all continued to decline, reaching 1.69%, 0.88%, and 0.82% in 2021, which are 2.05%, 0.60%, and 1.5% lower than in 1963 respectively. In terms of population growth rate, since the mid-1960s, upper-middle-income countries in East and Southeast Asia have seen the largest decline in population growth rate. In 1963, the population growth rate of upper-middle-income countries reached a peak of 2.8%, and then fell rapidly. In 2021, the population growth rate of upper-middle-income countries was 0.23%, which was only slightly higher than the 0.16% of high-income countries. Correspondingly, the population growth rate in East and Southeast Asia will be only 0.2% in 2021, a decrease of nearly 2.7% from the peak in 1963. The decline in population growth in upper-middle-income countries is mainly due to the drag on fertility rates. Since 1963, the total fertility rate in upper-middle-income countries has accelerated its decline, from 6.3 in 1963 to 1.52 in 2021, which is close to the \"warning line\" of low fertility and lower than the 1.56 in high-income countries during the same period. Correspondingly, the total fertility rate in East and Southeast Asia in 2021 is only 1.5, the lowest level in the world, which is significantly lower than the peak of 6.4 in 1963. Question 3: What are the characteristics of the fertility “depression”? Economic development is relatively developed, women have higher education levels, and labor participation rates are higher. Looking at different levels of development, the current global total fertility rate \"low spots\" are concentrated in developed and high-income countries; looking at different regions, the total fertility rate in East Asia, Southern Europe and other regions is at its lowest level. In 2021, the total fertility rate of developed countries and high-income countries will be at the lowest level, 1.52 and 1.56 respectively, which are lower than the population replacement level of 2.1. In terms of regions, the total fertility rate of European countries in 2021 is generally low, with an average of 1.50, and the average fertility rate of East Asia is 1.50. The country’s total fertility rate is the lowest, nearly 1.17. \"Classical demographic transition theory\" may partially explain the lower total fertility rates in Europe and East Asia. In 2021, the total fertility rate in South Korea, Singapore, China and some archipelago areas is low, all below the low fertility \"warning line\" of 1.5; among them, the total fertility rate in South Korea and Hong Kong, China is even less than 1. Investigating the reasons behind this, according to the \"classic demographic transition theory\", higher per capita GDP, longer average life expectancy and higher infant survival rate may be partially explained. According to the \"Second Demographic Transition Theory\", the continued decline in fertility is affected by factors such as social systems and cultural concepts. Data from various countries in 2021 show that the higher the number of years of education a woman has, the lower the total fertility rate is generally; sample data from Asia shows that the total fertility rate is also affected by marriage and love factors such as the marriage rate of women of childbearing age, the average childbearing age of women, as well as the number of years of education of women, The impact of female development factors such as female labor force participation rate. Risk warning: The international economic situation has changed beyond expectations, and population growth has fallen short of expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('f440b850-2d99-508a-a4c1-451305ac80fd'), 'sentimentScore': 0.1214008517563343, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'E2UG9K0PTCOOQ69BCCDPCAGNTFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'E2UG9K0PTCOOQ69BCCDPCAGNTFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3b874413-23dd-552a-82b4-b4c195b2debc'), 'title': 'Comments on macro events: Where has the overseas inventory cycle gone?', 'author': 'Yan Xiang, Xu Ruchun', 'orgName': '华福证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000065', 'orgSName': '华福证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwTbLTvA55ejvtClVm3rYyqU=', 'researcher': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000223033', '11000339132'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwTbLTvA55ejvtClVm3rYyqU=', 'site': 'Huafu Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华福证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624092811_1.pdf?1709222740000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624092811_1.pdf?1709222740000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on macro events: Where has the overseas inventory cycle gone?', 'originalAuthor': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'originalContent': '投资要点:截至2023年底,美国去库仍在进行,但明显放缓,或处于磨底阶段:(1)截至2023年12月,名义库存增速已降至0附近但速率明显放缓,后续或处于磨底阶段。其中批发商降幅居前,零售商增速相对较高;(2)截至2023Q4,实际库存增速仍在下行通道但整体好于名义库存,批发商降幅同样居前;(3)非耐用品去库领先耐用品,纸制品、服装、家具家居等库存增速处于历史偏低分位值,或离补库不远。欧洲同样处于主动去库阶段,但压力大于美国,上半年或继续承压:(1)2022年开始欧洲库存变动对GDP贡献持续下探,截至23Q3已降至-0.9%.从PMI对库存的领先性看,24H1欧洲大概率仍处于去库阶段;(2)企业微观调查同样显示去库仍在进行中,制造商领先零售商,且整体库存水位依然不低,后续的去库压力大于美国;(3)大部分行业处于去库阶段,其中运输设备、精炼油、医药、造纸等历史分位数偏低,离补库或不远。海外补库周期渐近,关注出口链机遇:(1)欧美库存周期与中国出口高度相关,源于欧美等发达经济体仍是外需主要来源地。从历史经验看,海外尤其是欧美开启补库后,中国出口增速通常上行,反之亦然;(2)欧美短期去库或仍在磨底阶段,补库仍需等待,下半年概率较高,重点关注对欧美出口占比高、金额大且库存处于偏低的细分行业,家具灯具、玩具等劳动密集型产品相对占优;(3)映射到股票市场上,出口链标的领先库存拐点,但与PMI拐点基本同步,全球需求有明显复苏迹象后,出口链股票组合通常取得较好收益。往后看,出口链机会仍然主要看海外需求,从目前市场预期看,欧央行、美联储最早或6-7月开启降息周期,而降息周期开启有望带动欧美需求回升,从而对国内出口链带来提振。风险提示:欧美经济下行超预期;地缘政治影响贸易和库存周期;历史经验不代表未来等。', 'content': \"Investment points: As of the end of 2023, the inventory destocking in the United States is still in progress, but it has slowed down significantly, or is in the bottoming out stage: (1) As of December 2023, the nominal inventory growth rate has dropped to near 0 but the rate has slowed down significantly. Or in the grinding stage. Among them, wholesalers have the largest decline, and retailers have a relatively high growth rate; (2) As of 2023Q4, the actual inventory growth rate is still in a downward channel but is overall better than nominal inventory, and wholesalers also have the largest decline; (3) Non-durable goods have declined The inventory growth rate of durable goods, paper products, clothing, furniture and home furnishings is at a historically low percentile, or is not far from replenishment. Europe is also in the active destocking stage, but the pressure is greater than that of the United States, and may continue to be under pressure in the first half of the year: (1) Starting in 2022, the contribution of European inventory changes to GDP will continue to decline, and as of 23Q3 it has dropped to -0.9%. From the perspective of PMI on inventories In terms of leadership, there is a high probability that Europe is still in the destocking stage in 24H1; (2) Enterprise micro-surveys also show that destocking is still in progress, manufacturers are ahead of retailers, and the overall inventory level is still not low, and the subsequent destocking pressure is greater than that in the United States. ; (3) Most industries are in the destocking stage, among which transportation equipment, refined oil, medicine, papermaking and other historical quantiles are relatively low, and may not be far away from replenishing stocks. The overseas inventory replenishment cycle is approaching, and we should pay attention to opportunities in the export chain: (1) The inventory cycle in Europe and the United States is highly related to China's exports, because developed economies such as Europe and the United States are still the main sources of external demand. Judging from historical experience, after overseas countries, especially Europe and the United States, start restocking, China's export growth usually rises, and vice versa; (2) Europe and the United States may still be in the bottom-out stage of short-term destocking, and replenishment still needs to wait, with a higher probability in the second half of the year. , focusing on subdivided industries with a high proportion of exports to Europe and the United States, large amounts, and low inventories. Labor-intensive products such as furniture, lamps, and toys are relatively dominant; (3) Mapping to the stock market, the leading inventory inflection point of the export chain , but basically synchronized with the PMI turning point, and after global demand shows obvious signs of recovery, the export chain stock portfolio usually achieves better returns. Looking forward, opportunities for the export chain will still mainly depend on overseas demand. Judging from current market expectations, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve may start an interest rate cut cycle in June or July at the earliest. The start of the interest rate cut cycle is expected to drive a rebound in European and American demand, thus bringing consequences to the domestic export chain. Boost. Risk warning: European and American economies are declining more than expected; geopolitics affects trade and inventory cycles; historical experience does not represent the future, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('91584e59-c8cd-5c63-a616-39b00d7419c0'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9185691010206938, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'UPFFB99QO7GQOUK6T1T5TRJEHJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:18 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'UPFFB99QO7GQOUK6T1T5TRJEHJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b560f4e4-769d-55d7-8574-223415085e81'), 'title': 'Six major concerns for the two sessions in 2024', 'author': 'Xie Yunliang, Xiao Zhangyu', 'orgName': '信达证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80092742', 'orgSName': '信达证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwco9pOV5bo9tiAFjPCI3JW4=', 'researcher': '解运亮,肖张羽', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000243225', '11000369835'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwco9pOV5bo9tiAFjPCI3JW4=', 'site': 'Cinda Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '信达证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624091299_1.pdf?1709199911000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624091299_1.pdf?1709199911000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Six major concerns for the two sessions in 2024', 'originalAuthor': '解运亮,肖张羽', 'originalContent': '', 'content': '', 'authorid': UUID('6b24f994-d652-5708-b02b-eaafb1220749'), 'sentimentScore': 0.14251141250133514, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'C2GOMDGP44BNB2OE2VRA7DVHAJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:20 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'C2GOMDGP44BNB2OE2VRA7DVHAJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('20d5f238-ad12-528a-b98c-32704c84ae5b'), 'title': \"Overseas tracking: Hong Kong's three major stock indexes rose or fell, new energy vehicle stocks strengthened\", 'author': 'Zhang Zhuoran', 'orgName': '川财证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000204', 'orgSName': '川财证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-29', 'encodeUrl': '4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwUEWjawnZieUiexCqRYF4ko=', 'researcher': '张卓然', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000344834'], 'count': 13, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4UDx+LlaM4nuzbfKvbUlwUEWjawnZieUiexCqRYF4ko=', 'site': 'Chuancai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '川财证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624090463_1.pdf?1709193830000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402291624090463_1.pdf?1709193830000.pdf', 'originalTitle': \"Overseas tracking: Hong Kong's three major stock indexes rose or fell, new energy vehicle stocks strengthened\", 'originalAuthor': '张卓然', 'originalContent': '跟踪点评周一，美国三大主要股指全部下跌。道琼斯工业平均指数收于39069.23点，下跌0.16%；标普500指数收于5069.53点,下跌0.38%；纳斯达克综合指数收于15976.25点，下跌0.13%。行业方面，科技板块走低，大型科技股多数下跌，谷歌-A下跌4.44%；中概股多数上涨，宏利营造上涨36.25%。理想汽车发布2023年四季度及全年财报，营收增速超预期，并首次实现全年盈利。受此提振，中概新能源汽车股集体上涨，理想汽车上涨18.79%，小鹏汽车上涨6.84%。美债方面，长短端美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率收于4.28%，上涨了3.7个基点。美国经济分析局将在本周公布1月PCE和核心PCE数据，若数据显示现阶段美国通胀压力依然较大，美联储短期降息的预期或进一���降温。周二，香港三大主要股指涨跌不一。恒生指数收于16790.8点，上涨0.94%；恒生中国企业指数收于5806.9点，上涨1.46%；恒生香港中资企业指数收于3481.74点，下跌0.46%。恒生科技指数收3503.17点，上涨3.24%。行业方面，恒生行业指数多数上涨，恒生非必需性消费业、恒生医疗保健业、恒生公用事业涨幅居前，分别上涨了3.48%、2.68%、0.92%。个股方面，新能源汽车股走强，理想汽车-W上涨25.45%，小鹏汽车-W上涨5.6%。政策要闻1.韩国央行：截至2023年12月底，韩国短期外债为1362亿美元，较9月底的1416亿美元下降，短期外债占外汇储备的比例为32.4%，较9月底的34.2%有所下降。（金十数据）2.欧洲央行：行长拉加德表示，我们的紧缩货币政策立场、随之而来的通胀率大幅下降以及牢固锚定的长期通胀预期，作为防止持续的工资-物价螺旋上升的保障；欧洲央行坚定致力于实现2%的通胀目标。（金十数据）公司动态1.理想汽车：公布2023年第四季度及全年财报。2023年第四季度，理想汽车实现营业收入417.3亿元，同比增长136.4%，环比增加20.3%；净利润57.5亿元，同比增加2068.2%。2023年实现营收1238.5亿元，同比增长173.5%；净利润达到118.1亿元，首次实现全年盈利。（同花顺Knews）风险提示：经济增长不及预期，贸易保护主义的蔓延，美联储政策超预期。', 'content': \"Tracking comments: On Monday, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 39069.23 points, down 0.16%; the S&P 500 closed at 5069.53 points, down 0.38%; the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 15976.25 points, down 0.13%. In terms of industry, the technology sector fell, with most large technology stocks falling, with Google-A falling 4.44%; most Chinese concept stocks rising, with Manulife rising 36.25%. Li Auto released its financial report for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023. Its revenue growth exceeded expectations and it achieved full-year profits for the first time. Boosted by this, China New Energy Automobile stocks collectively rose, with Li Auto rising 18.79% and Xpeng Motors rising 6.84%. In terms of U.S. bonds, long- and short-term U.S. bond yields rose collectively, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield closing at 4.28%, an increase of 3.7 basis points. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release January PCE and core PCE data this week. If the data shows that U.S. inflation pressure is still high at this stage, expectations for a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may further cool down. Hong Kong's three major stock indexes were mixed on Tuesday. The Hang Seng Index closed at 16,790.8 points, up 0.94%; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed at 5,806.9 points, up 1.46%; the Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index closed at 3,481.74 points, down 0.46%. The Hang Seng Technology Index closed at 3503.17 points, up 3.24%. In terms of industries, most of the Hang Seng Industry Index rose, with Hang Seng Consumer Discretionary, Hang Seng Healthcare, and Hang Seng Utilities leading the gains, rising by 3.48%, 2.68%, and 0.92% respectively. In terms of individual stocks, new energy automobile stocks strengthened, with Li Auto-W rising 25.45% and Xpeng Motors-W rising 5.6%. Policy News 1. Bank of Korea: As of the end of December 2023, South Korea's short-term external debt was US$136.2 billion, down from US$141.6 billion at the end of September. The proportion of short-term external debt in foreign exchange reserves was 32.4%, down from 34.2% at the end of September. . (Golden Ten Data) 2. European Central Bank: President Lagarde said that our tightening monetary policy stance, the consequent sharp decline in inflation and firmly anchored long-term inflation expectations, serve as a preventive measure to prevent a continued wage-price spiral. Guarantee of an increase; the ECB is firmly committed to achieving its 2% inflation target. (Golden Ten Data) Company News 1. Li Auto: Announced fourth quarter and full-year financial results for 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Li Auto achieved operating income of 41.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 136.4% and a month-on-month increase of 20.3%; net profit was 5.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2068.2%. In 2023, revenue will be 123.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 173.5%; net profit will reach 11.81 billion yuan, achieving full-year profitability for the first time. (Flush Knews) Risk warning: Economic growth is lower than expected, trade protectionism is spreading, and the Federal Reserve policy exceeds expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('eea00dcc-4efb-5c15-9c64-76c8aa8e4fdc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9674514010548592, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '6AEJP8LHRHRS4SF6O39EK1QM3RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:23 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '6AEJP8LHRHRS4SF6O39EK1QM3RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7898f781-0d15-5fcc-a1bb-c51b978dccad'), 'title': 'Macro information tracking', 'author': 'Chen Li', 'orgName': '川财证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000204', 'orgSName': '川财证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-28', 'encodeUrl': 'wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9MwxY/oBkjLk8Ai6qXYa/EQ=', 'researcher': '陈雳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000174919'], 'count': 13, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9MwxY/oBkjLk8Ai6qXYa/EQ=', 'site': 'Chuancai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '川财证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281624032509_1.pdf?1709156644000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281624032509_1.pdf?1709156644000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro information tracking', 'originalAuthor': '陈雳', 'originalContent': '宏观政策央行上海总部：1月人民币贷款增加1996亿元央行上海总部披露2024年1月份上海货币信贷运行情况。1月末，上海本外币贷款余额11.37万亿元，同比增长7.3%，增速与上月末持平。1月份，人民币贷款增加1996亿元，同比少增67亿元。（央行上海总部）宏观动态司法部：民营经济促进法立法工作已经全面启动在28日国新办举行的国务院政策例行吹风会上，司法部副部长胡卫列表示，司法部从全面清理行政法规、完善全国统一的大市场制度保障、推进法治化营商环境顶层设计、加强营商环境突出问题的法治督察等方面，采取了一系列针对性的举措。司法部下一步将会同相关部门积极稳妥加快推进立法进程，切实从法律制度上把国企、民企平等对待的要求用硬实的措施落下来，依法保护民营企业产权和企业家权益，促进民营经济健康发展。可以说，国家在优化营商环境方面已经形成了一整套的“法治组合拳”。国务院日前印发《关于进一步规范和监督罚款设定与实施的指导意见》（以下简称《意见》）也是这一套“法治组合拳”的重要组成部分。上述《意见》着力完善顶层设计，紧紧围绕经营主体关注的问题，通过规范和监督罚款的设定与实施，有效减少企业经营中的不确定性、降低企业运行成本，保护企业特别是中小微企业和群众合法权益，维护公平竞争的市场秩序，夯实优化营商环境工作法治基础。（国新办）风险提示：宏观经济修复不及预期，出现严重信用事件，增量政策不及预期。', 'content': 'Macro Policy Central Bank Shanghai Headquarters: RMB loans increased by 199.6 billion yuan in January. The Shanghai Headquarters of the Central Bank disclosed the operation of Shanghai’s currency and credit in January 2024. At the end of January, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans in Shanghai was 11.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and the growth rate was the same as at the end of last month. In January, RMB loans increased by 199.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7 billion yuan year-on-year. (Shanghai Headquarters of the Central Bank) Macro Dynamics Ministry of Justice: The legislative work of the Private Economy Promotion Law has been fully launched. At the State Council’s regular policy briefing held by the State Council Information Office on the 28th, Vice Minister of Justice Hu Weilie said that the Ministry of Justice will start from comprehensively cleaning up the administrative A series of targeted measures have been taken in terms of laws and regulations, improving the national unified large market system guarantee, promoting the top-level design of a legalized business environment, and strengthening legal supervision of outstanding issues in the business environment. In the next step, the Ministry of Justice will work with relevant departments to actively and steadily accelerate the legislative process, effectively implement the requirement of equal treatment of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises from the legal system with hard measures, protect the property rights of private enterprises and the rights and interests of entrepreneurs in accordance with the law, and promote the healthy development of the private economy. It can be said that the country has formed a complete set of \"rule of law\" in optimizing the business environment. The State Council recently issued the \"Guiding Opinions on Further Regulating and Supervising the Setting and Implementation of Fines\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Opinions\"), which is also an important part of this \"rule of law package\". The above-mentioned \"Opinions\" strive to improve the top-level design, closely focus on the issues that business entities are concerned about, and effectively reduce the uncertainty in business operations, reduce business operating costs, and protect enterprises, especially small, medium and micro enterprises, by standardizing and supervising the setting and implementation of fines. The legitimate rights and interests of enterprises and the public are maintained, the market order of fair competition is maintained, and the legal basis for optimizing the business environment is consolidated. (State Council Information Office) Risk warning: Macroeconomic recovery falls short of expectations, serious credit events occur, and incremental policies fall short of expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('267e0858-7a39-5196-be76-43e80fed6dc6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9173373710364103, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '5TRSJ67L3N6ST94GM70MAKAO5JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:25 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '5TRSJ67L3N6ST94GM70MAKAO5JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b0113b16-15ab-56c0-9b32-d6082b9e8f22'), 'title': \"CASH Investment Outlook 2024: Riding the Six Dragons. Rich as one's neighbor\", 'author': '', 'orgName': '时富金融服务集团有限公司', 'orgCode': '10002450', 'orgSName': '时富金融服务集团', 'publishDate': '2024-02-28', 'encodeUrl': 'wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9NosEDILtiTyA+sNxvXM8iU=', 'researcher': '', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': '', 'count': 1, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9NosEDILtiTyA+sNxvXM8iU=', 'site': 'CASH Financial Services Group Limited', 'originalSite': '时富金融服务集团', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623992129_1.pdf?1709149957000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623992129_1.pdf?1709149957000.pdf', 'originalTitle': \"CASH Investment Outlook 2024: Riding the Six Dragons. Rich as one's neighbor\", 'originalAuthor': '', 'originalContent': '「时乘六龙」，时潜则潜，时现则现….龙无常形，乘时变化，不一而定，惟适其时也。2024年是史上最大规模的大选年，加上地缘政治加剧地缘经济碎片化，市场又憧憬减息，投资前景变幻莫测，时富财富管理研究部遂为一众投资者深入剖析了2024年龙年投资建议，并作出不同地域、不同资产类别、不同年期的资产配置建议，以期「富以其邻」，成就客户的财富管理目标。2024年，时富财富管理的大数据模组研究发现六个优质投资主题。股市方面，我们对全球抱持乐观态度，尤其是随著墨西哥经济转型、日本股市持续畅旺，印度市场进入另一个发展阶段，以及中国内地股票大折让，这些市场将出现一些独特的投资机会。除股票外，比特币及其相关ETF将继续保持升势；而利率主题将在今年持续影响市场，令其中一些固定收益证券将变得非常吸引。', 'content': '\"Ride six dragons at a time\", when they are latent, they are latent, and when they appear, they appear... Dragons have no permanent shape, and they change when they ride, and they are not always determined, but they are suitable for the right time. 2024 is the year of the largest election in history. In addition, geopolitics has intensified geo-economic fragmentation, and the market is looking forward to interest rate cuts. The investment prospects are unpredictable. CASH Wealth Management Research Department has provided an in-depth analysis of the 2024 dragon for investors. Annual investment recommendations, and asset allocation recommendations for different regions, different asset classes, and different maturities, in order to \"get rich next to others\" and achieve customers\\' wealth management goals. In 2024, CASH Wealth Management’s big data module research discovered six high-quality investment themes. In terms of the stock market, we are optimistic about the world, especially as Mexico\\'s economy transforms, Japan\\'s stock market continues to boom, the Indian market enters another stage of development, and mainland China stocks are discounted, some unique investment opportunities will emerge in these markets. In addition to stocks, Bitcoin and its related ETFs will continue to rise; and the interest rate theme will continue to affect the market this year, making some of these fixed income securities very attractive.', 'authorid': UUID('0a68eb57-c88a-5f34-9e9d-27f85e68af4f'), 'sentimentScore': 0.06669093668460846, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'LGNTT9HO62403B0OQB4STERUBRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:28 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'LGNTT9HO62403B0OQB4STERUBRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b4611245-3443-5a2f-b514-12289ac50000'), 'title': 'Overseas technology stock earnings review + AI’s impact on company business', 'author': 'Zhang Liangwei', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-28', 'encodeUrl': 'wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9CqT/VekmyeiX9aurmLmtmI=', 'researcher': '张良卫', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000173557'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9CqT/VekmyeiX9aurmLmtmI=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623986439_1.pdf?1709140897000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623986439_1.pdf?1709140897000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas technology stock earnings review + AI’s impact on company business', 'originalAuthor': '张良卫', 'originalContent': '摘要纵观2023Q4微软、亚马逊、META和谷歌的财报：1）都视AI为重要战略方向，各家在CAPEX的投入均加强；2）但目前AI暂未出现爆款应用，也未有行业/公司被颠覆，AI应用目前集中于B端；3）AI对于业绩有明确贡献的为云计算，其他主要是在自身业务流程中进行降本增效。微软：1）收入、利润及AI进展超预期，但由于未披露Microsoft365Copilot的具体进展及市场预期太高，导致业绩后下跌；2）AI对业绩贡献贡献在云计算及软件产品方面，其中23Q4AI对Azure贡献6个点增速；软件+AI推出多个Copilots，对业绩贡献暂时较小；3）云计算已基本结束优化周期，借助OpenAI在大模型侧的实力，Azure目前是海外三朵云中最确定性受益于AI的；4）微软软件产品丰富，是巨头中AI应用场景最丰富的公司；根据彭博一致预期，FY2024-FY2026预计公司收入2446/2793/3203亿美元，同比增长15%/14%/15%；净利润867/991/1160亿美元，同比增长20%/14%/17%。亚马逊：收入、利润及指引均超市场预期，业绩后大涨来源于：1）零售业务超预期，并未受到TEMU竞争影响；2）Azure若无AI助力同比增速仍下滑，而几乎没有AI帮助的AWS增速已触底开始回升，证明在非AI领域AWS并未一直被Azure抢分额；3）物流投入周期结束后，零售业务开始释放利润。未来AI时代AWS仍受益，AWS和Azure的竞争态势可能取决于开源模型还是闭源模型占主导。根据彭博一致预期：2024-2026年预计公司收入6416/7180/8014亿美元，同比增长12%/12%/12%；净利润436/581/762亿美元，同比增长46%/33%/31%。META：收入、EPS和指引均超市场预期，业绩和指引超预期后，EPS上调显得估值具备性价比带来大涨。24Q1指引超预期源自：1）23Q1企业降本增效仍在持续、TEMU等中国广告主是自23Q2开始投放的，导致基数低；2）24Q1因美国天气寒冷，导致线上销售良好，带动电商广告。目前AI对公司的贡献仍体现在自身流程的降本增效，例如在C端通过提升用户体验带来参与度的提升，B端向广告主推出更高效率的广告产品。根据彭博一致预期，2024-2026年预计公司收入1581/1776/1996亿美元，同比增长17%/12%/12%；净利润524/602/694亿美元，同比增长34%/15%/15%。Google：总收入、EPS超市场预期，广告收入略不及市场预期，盘后下跌源于此前市场预期太乐观。1）与微软（OpenAI）在大模型侧的竞争压力始终存在；2）与微软丰富的AI应用场景不同，谷歌本身基本等于搜索行业贝塔，而生成式AI对搜索广告的提升作用确定性不够强。但由于自身盈利能力强，叠加AI实力，估值有支撑。根据彭博一致预期，2024-2026年预计公司收入3438/3823/4162亿美元，同比增长12%/11%/9%；净利润846/959/1075亿美元，同比增长15%/13%/12%。风险提示：AI发展不及预期风险，AI商业化风险，市场竞争风险，政策风险。', 'content': \"Summary: Looking at the financial reports of Microsoft, Amazon, META and Google in 2023Q4: 1) All regard AI as an important strategic direction, and each company has increased its investment in CAPEX; 2) However, there are currently no popular AI applications, and there are no industry/ The company has been disrupted, and AI applications are currently concentrated on the B-side; 3) AI has a clear contribution to performance in cloud computing, while the rest is mainly to reduce costs and increase efficiency in its own business processes. Microsoft: 1) Revenue, profit and AI progress exceeded expectations, but the specific progress of Microsoft 365 Copilot was not disclosed and market expectations were too high, resulting in post-performance decline; 2) AI’s contribution to performance was in cloud computing and software products, of which 23Q4 AI contributed to Azure contributed 6 points of growth; Software + AI launched multiple Copilots, which contributed little to performance for the time being; 3) Cloud computing has basically ended its optimization cycle. With OpenAI’s strength in large models, Azure is currently one of the three overseas clouds. The most certain to benefit from AI; 4) Microsoft has rich software products and is the company with the richest AI application scenarios among giants; according to Bloomberg’s consensus forecast, the company’s revenue is expected to be US$2446/2793/320.3 billion in FY2024-FY2026, a year-on-year increase of 15% /14%/15%; net profit was US$867/991/116 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20%/14%/17%. Amazon: Revenue, profit and guidance all exceeded market expectations. The reason for the sharp rise after the results is: 1) The retail business exceeded expectations and was not affected by TEMU competition; 2) Azure’s year-on-year growth rate would still decline without the help of AI, and there is almost no AI The growth rate of AWS has bottomed out and started to pick up, proving that AWS has not been losing share to Azure in the non-AI field; 3) After the logistics investment cycle is over, the retail business begins to release profits. In the future AI era, AWS will still benefit. The competitive situation between AWS and Azure may depend on whether the open source model or the closed source model dominates. According to Bloomberg's consensus forecast: the company's revenue from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be US$6416/7180/801.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%/12%/12%; net profit is US$436/581/76.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46%/33%/ 31%. META: Revenue, EPS and guidance all exceeded market expectations. After the performance and guidance exceeded expectations, the EPS increase showed that the valuation was cost-effective and brought about a huge increase. The 24Q1 guidance exceeded expectations due to: 1) In 23Q1, companies continued to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and Chinese advertisers such as TEMU started advertising in 23Q2, resulting in a low base; 2) In 24Q1, due to the cold weather in the United States, online sales were good, driving E-commerce advertising. At present, the contribution of AI to the company is still reflected in cost reduction and efficiency improvement of its own processes. For example, on the C-side, it improves user experience to increase participation, and on the B-side, it launches more efficient advertising products to advertisers. According to Bloomberg's consensus forecast, the company's revenue from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be US$158.1/177.6/199.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%/12%/12%; net profit is US$524/602/69.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34%/15%/ 15%. Google: Total revenue and EPS exceeded market expectations, and advertising revenue was slightly lower than market expectations. The after-hours decline was due to previous market expectations being too optimistic. 1) There is always competitive pressure with Microsoft (OpenAI) on the large model side; 2) Unlike Microsoft’s rich AI application scenarios, Google itself is basically equal to the beta of the search industry, and the effect of generative AI on improving search advertising is not strong enough. . However, due to its strong profitability and AI strength, its valuation is supported. According to Bloomberg's consensus forecast, the company's revenue from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be US$343.8/3823/416.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%/11%/9%; net profit is US$846/959/107.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%/13%/ 12%. Risk warning: AI development is less than expected risk, AI commercialization risk, market competition risk, policy risk.\", 'authorid': UUID('ac0236dd-1944-5047-9b7e-42a412b0fedb'), 'sentimentScore': 0.61342603713274, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'E8IJ4MR49DHAINH1REC1CKPHEVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:30 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'E8IJ4MR49DHAINH1REC1CKPHEVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0ca0b5ef-adce-5574-9e70-9560311482aa'), 'title': 'The TLAC instrument is about to be released. How do you view the investment value?', 'author': 'YY team', 'orgName': '瑞霆狗(深圳)信息技术有限公司', 'orgCode': '81119350', 'orgSName': '瑞霆狗(深圳)信息技术', 'publishDate': '2024-02-28', 'encodeUrl': 'wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9Ghp8zsFQHo73bseyTSHBUk=', 'researcher': 'YY团队', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000432151'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9Ghp8zsFQHo73bseyTSHBUk=', 'site': 'RuitingGou (Shenzhen) Information Technology Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '瑞霆狗(深圳)信息技术', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623981316_1.pdf?1709136020000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623981316_1.pdf?1709136020000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The TLAC instrument is about to be released. How do you view the investment value?', 'originalAuthor': 'YY团队', 'originalContent': '近日，中国银行公告董事会决议通过总损失吸收能力非资本债务工具发行额度和发行安排，标志着国内银行TLAC工具即将落地，本文梳理TLAC工具基本特征，并对其后续发行情况进行简单展望。TLAC即商业银行的总损失吸收能力，是指全球系统重要性银行进入处置阶段时，可以通过减记或转为普通股等方式吸收损失的资本和债务工具的总和。TLAC实际是国际金融稳定理事会（FSB）提出的对《巴塞尔协议》框架下“大而不能倒”（too-big-to-fail）银行危机救助缺漏的一个补丁。TLAC工具主要特性在于两点，一是定位上不属于银行资本工具，但具有吸收银行损失的功能，二是清偿顺序上位于普通债务之后，但优先于其他资本工具，整体来看次级属性不及二级资本债和永续债。根据五家G-SIBs三季报数据，我们对TLAC缺口进行静态测算，不将存款保险基金纳入考虑，则预期五大行合计缺口在25,139.67亿元，将存款保险基金设为上限值2.5%，则缺口在0.4万亿元左右，但由于实际存款基金规模在22年末仅为549亿，或难达到豁免上限。由于TLAC工具具有次级债券属性，风险权重与二级资本债一致为150%，对商业银行的表内风险资本占用较高，且面临G-SIBs互持上限的制约，持有者结构或将与二级资本债相似，以广义基金等非银机构为主。', 'content': 'Recently, the Bank of China announced that its board of directors has passed the issuance quota and issuance arrangements for total loss absorbing capacity non-capital debt instruments, marking the imminent implementation of TLAC instruments for domestic banks. This article sorts out the basic characteristics of TLAC instruments and gives a brief outlook on their subsequent issuance. TLAC is the total loss-absorbing capacity of commercial banks, which refers to the sum of capital and debt instruments that can absorb losses through write-downs or conversions to ordinary shares when global systemically important banks enter the resolution stage. TLAC is actually a patch proposed by the International Financial Stability Board (FSB) to address the gaps in the \"too-big-to-fail\" banking crisis rescue under the framework of the Basel Accord. The main characteristics of TLAC instruments lie in two points. First, they are not bank capital instruments in terms of positioning, but they have the function of absorbing bank losses. Second, they are placed after ordinary debts in the order of repayment, but have priority over other capital instruments. Overall, they have inferior attributes. Secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds. According to the third quarter report data of the five G-SIBs, we conduct a static calculation of the TLAC gap and do not take the deposit insurance fund into consideration. The total gap of the five major banks is expected to be 2,513.967 billion yuan. If the deposit insurance fund is set to the upper limit of 2.5%, then The gap is about 0.4 trillion yuan, but since the actual deposit fund size was only 54.9 billion at the end of 2022, it may be difficult to reach the exemption limit. Since TLAC instruments have subordinated bond attributes and the risk weight is the same as tier-two capital bonds at 150%, it occupies a relatively high amount of on-balance sheet risk capital for commercial banks and is restricted by the upper limit of mutual holdings of G-SIBs. The holder structure may change. Similar to secondary capital bonds, they are mainly non-bank institutions such as broad funds.', 'authorid': UUID('c1e89f27-fd7c-5450-978d-b2669e2cb776'), 'sentimentScore': 0.005417022854089737, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'HSG3U30DJO09F2RT83U1SQ4K6JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:33 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'HSG3U30DJO09F2RT83U1SQ4K6JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('806b0236-d11b-5285-8c7a-8643496e4739'), 'title': 'Thoughts on Local Leverage Ⅱ: The Current Situation and Future of New “Leverage”', 'author': '', 'orgName': '瑞霆狗(深圳)信息技术有限公司', 'orgCode': '81119350', 'orgSName': '瑞霆狗(深圳)信息技术', 'publishDate': '2024-02-28', 'encodeUrl': 'wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9EUk/N4LON9YHCL+Ba4abJQ=', 'researcher': '', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': '', 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9EUk/N4LON9YHCL+Ba4abJQ=', 'site': 'RuitingGou (Shenzhen) Information Technology Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '瑞霆狗(深圳)信息技术', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623980844_1.pdf?1709135921000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623980844_1.pdf?1709135921000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Thoughts on Local Leverage Ⅱ: The Current Situation and Future of New “Leverage”', 'originalAuthor': '', 'originalContent': '对于地方杠杆，我们在《地方杠杆思考Ⅰ》中更多的是对“加杠杆”可能方向的理论揣测和样本分析，本文则回到全局，基于一级市场不同监管之下的发行数据，重点回答两个问题：问题一，在“3899名单”、“隐债名单”，“市场化经营主体”等众多的标签之下，YY城投之中，一级发行数据告诉了我们什么？从统计来看，大概有以下3点：1）监管的时间轴，协会的政策时间大概源于10月26日，交易所则不可确定。2）协会层面，所谓的“市场化经营主体”目前在协会基本无新增，而“新增类债项”主体新增主体多以省级和地市级平台为主，业务类型上聚焦于交通、水利水务等领域。3）交易所层面，纯粹的基建主体当前新增是几乎不可能的，新增多由通过包装形成的涉产主体和交通公用事业为主。问题二，站在地方层面，当前债券融资杠杆的现状及未来测算。首先，对于城投杠杆，以2022年、2023年作为参考系，结合近期监管之下的新增类债券规模，我们线性外推下，可得：协会层面相较于2023年的净融资，差距有限，在300亿元左右，但高于2022年，但融资结构由地市区县为主转向省级为主；交易所则较为惨淡，前两年高规模的净融资之下，缺口或在5000亿元左右。再看，城投之外，我们定义在业务和政府意志上接近于城投的相关行业，以产业控股、多元金融、高速、公用事业（环保、水务、供热供气）作为泛平台1类主体，监管层面对其新增相对宽松，地方层面而言，整体有所扩容，但幅度有限。测算下：1）协会层面年融资规模930亿元，相较于2023年或增加354亿元，结合城投主体的线性外推之下的缺口，泛平台1+城投的合计新增或略超过2023年。2）交易所层面，年融资规模测算的下限值1447亿元，相较于2023年增加500亿元左右，但与交易所城投测算下接近5000亿元的缺口相比，较为杯水车薪。因此，基于两个问题的拆解，站在地方杠杆角度:城投债券层面，协会总量或能稳住，但结构问题较大，交易所则增幅稳减；而以类平台产业杠杆补缺，则面临匹配不适问题，诸如中低层级主体，中西区域主体，当前样本不多，力量有限。而地方缺钱本质依旧，那么杠杆大概率无法也不会躺平，该加的总要加点，不是自己努力（想法设法融资，但空间未知），就是积极向上沟通（财政打钱），只不过严控之下，对于标债投资而言，供给收缩下，2024，买啥呢？', 'content': 'Regarding local leverage, our \"Reflections on Local Leverage I\" is more about theoretical speculation and sample analysis of the possible directions of \"increasing leverage\". This article returns to the overall situation, based on issuance data under different regulations in the primary market, focusing on Answer two questions: Question 1: What does the primary issuance data of YY Urban Investment tell us under many labels such as \"3899 List\", \"Hidden Debt List\", \"Market-oriented Business Entity\", etc.? From a statistical point of view, there are probably the following three points: 1) The timeline of supervision. The association’s policy date probably started on October 26, while the exchange is uncertain. 2) At the association level, there are currently no new so-called \"market-oriented business entities\" in the association, while the new entities for \"new debt\" are mostly provincial and prefecture-level platforms, and their business types focus on Transportation, water conservancy and water affairs and other fields. 3) At the exchange level, it is almost impossible to add new pure infrastructure entities. The new additions are mainly made up of industry-related entities and transportation and public utilities formed through packaging. Question 2: From a local level, the current status and future estimation of bond financing leverage. First, for urban investment leverage, using 2022 and 2023 as the reference system, combined with the scale of new bonds under recent supervision, we can linearly extrapolate and obtain: Compared with the net financing at the association level in 2023, the gap Limited, at about 30 billion yuan, but higher than 2022, but the financing structure has shifted from mainly prefectures, cities and counties to mainly provincial levels; exchanges are relatively bleak. Under the high-scale net financing in the past two years, the gap may be About 500 billion yuan. Looking again, outside of urban investment, we define related industries that are close to urban investment in terms of business and government will, with industrial holdings, diversified finance, highways, and public utilities (environmental protection, water affairs, heating and gas supply) as the first category of pan-platforms For entities, the regulatory level is relatively relaxed for new additions. At the local level, the overall capacity has been expanded, but the extent is limited. Calculated: 1) The annual financing scale at the association level is 93 billion yuan, which may increase by 35.4 billion yuan compared with 2023. Combined with the gap under the linear extrapolation of urban investment entities, the total increase in pan-platform 1+ urban investment may be slightly Beyond 2023. 2) At the exchange level, the lower limit of the estimated annual financing scale is 144.7 billion yuan, which is about 50 billion yuan more than in 2023. However, compared with the gap of nearly 500 billion yuan estimated by the exchange city investment, it is a drop in the bucket. Therefore, based on the dismantling of two issues, from the perspective of local leverage: at the level of urban investment bonds, the total amount of the association may be stable, but the structural problem is relatively large, and the growth rate of the exchange has steadily decreased; while the industry leverage of similar platforms has filled the gap, It faces the problem of inappropriate matching, such as middle and low-level subjects, and subjects in the central and western regions. Currently, there are not many samples and the power is limited. However, the essence of the local shortage of money remains the same, so there is a high probability that leverage cannot and will not be flat. You must add more when you need to, either by working hard (finding ways to raise funds, but the space is unknown), or by actively communicating with others (fiscal money), but Under strict control, for standard bond investment, what should we buy in 2024 when supply shrinks?', 'authorid': UUID('0a68eb57-c88a-5f34-9e9d-27f85e68af4f'), 'sentimentScore': 0.018534328788518906, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '1FQND0UAM41TEVV4KOBA2ILMI3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:35 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '1FQND0UAM41TEVV4KOBA2ILMI3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7909e515-649b-5915-8d9b-fe1510b2ce7f'), 'title': 'Macro analysis framework: PPI analysis method', 'author': 'YY team', 'orgName': '瑞霆狗(深圳)信息技术有限公司', 'orgCode': '81119350', 'orgSName': '瑞霆狗(深圳)信息技术', 'publishDate': '2024-02-28', 'encodeUrl': 'wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9NGQx5R6+pKy5Xs4vHpTvUM=', 'researcher': 'YY团队', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000432151'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9NGQx5R6+pKy5Xs4vHpTvUM=', 'site': 'RuitingGou (Shenzhen) Information Technology Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '瑞霆狗(深圳)信息技术', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623980837_1.pdf?1709136531000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623980837_1.pdf?1709136531000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro analysis framework: PPI analysis method', 'originalAuthor': 'YY团队', 'originalContent': '本篇文章聚焦于物价水平指标之一的PPI指标。PPI通常指的是工业生产者出厂价格指数。在二分法和行业法两个不同口径下，本文计算了PPI指标体系中各分项对应的权重。得出当前基期生产资料和生活资料在PPI中的权重分别为74%和26%，以及“石化煤炭两色”是对PPI指数同比影响较大的行业。本篇文章构建了分析PPI指标的分析框架，从通胀原因出发，我们将影响因素分类到由国内国外、需求供给组成的四维矩阵中，逐一进行PPI趋势分析。为了实时跟踪和预测PPI指标的变化，根据两个口径我们构建了宏观整体和微观行业两个视角下相应的高频指标体系，对PPI同比或者环比进行拟合。利用分析框架，我们对2013年以来的两次PPI通胀周期进行分析。并探讨了2024年如何实现“再通胀”。参考2015年相关政策，我们认为需要以下几个方面。从国内需求角度出发，需要财政政策、货币政策发力坚持推进“三大工程”进程。国内供给侧角度出发，需要坚持供给侧改革，化解部分行业过剩产能。在国外供需两侧方面，由于变数较大，中国作为“防守方”需要“对症下药”，以平滑国外因素对国内PPI指标的影响。', 'content': 'This article focuses on the PPI indicator, one of the price level indicators. PPI usually refers to the industrial producer price index. Under two different calibers, the dichotomy method and the industry method, this article calculates the weight corresponding to each sub-item in the PPI indicator system. It is concluded that the weights of the current base period\\'s means of production and means of living in the PPI are 74% and 26% respectively, and \"petrochemicals and coal\" are industries that have a greater impact on the PPI index year-on-year. This article constructs an analytical framework for analyzing PPI indicators. Starting from the causes of inflation, we classify the influencing factors into a four-dimensional matrix composed of domestic and foreign, demand and supply, and analyze PPI trends one by one. In order to track and predict changes in PPI indicators in real time, we constructed corresponding high-frequency indicator systems from two perspectives, macro-overall and micro-industry, based on two calibers, to fit PPI year-on-year or month-on-month. Using the analytical framework, we analyzed the two PPI inflation cycles since 2013. And discussed how to achieve \"reflation\" in 2024. With reference to the relevant policies in 2015, we believe that the following aspects are needed. From the perspective of domestic demand, fiscal and monetary policies need to be used to promote the process of the \"three major projects\". From the perspective of the domestic supply side, we need to persist in supply-side reform and resolve excess production capacity in some industries. On both sides of foreign supply and demand, due to the large variables, China, as the \"defender\", needs to \"prescribe the right medicine\" to smooth the impact of foreign factors on the domestic PPI index.', 'authorid': UUID('c1e89f27-fd7c-5450-978d-b2669e2cb776'), 'sentimentScore': -0.019527550786733627, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '6D6CNECH11FSKFHRGHQ2EJ56F7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:38 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '6D6CNECH11FSKFHRGHQ2EJ56F7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('546d24e1-af27-52e3-b986-9379e25323eb'), 'title': 'Macro: Some Discussions on Japan', 'author': 'Song Xuetao, Sun Yongle', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-28', 'encodeUrl': 'wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9NSfswc0Z8R4p/Yy40WjCVM=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛,孙永乐', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658', '11000337036'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9NSfswc0Z8R4p/Yy40WjCVM=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623949592_1.pdf?1709125821000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623949592_1.pdf?1709125821000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro: Some Discussions on Japan', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛,孙永乐', 'originalContent': '对于中国市场的研究者来说，日本是这么近又那么远。近期我们与市场交流了一些观点，总结一下，以供参考。如何看待日本股市近期表现很好，但经济连续两个季度环比负增长？如何看待当前日本偏高的劳动参与率？日本房地产泡沫之所以消纳时间长，因为有很多外部因素。风险提示：日本股市走势超预期；日本经济变动超预期；日本劳动力市场走势超预期', 'content': \"For researchers of the Chinese market, Japan is so close yet so far. We have recently exchanged some views with the market and summarized them for reference. How do you think the Japanese stock market has performed very well recently, but the economy has experienced negative quarter-on-quarter growth for two consecutive quarters? What do you think of Japan’s current high labor participation rate? The reason why Japan's real estate bubble took a long time to absorb is because there are many external factors. Risk warning: Japanese stock market trends exceed expectations; Japan’s economic changes exceed expectations; Japan’s labor market trends exceed expectations\", 'authorid': UUID('4449585e-c540-5def-a027-eb3ec7d62432'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7201101183891296, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '7L2E52G0JJIG1TS9HI23VEN9OFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:40 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '7L2E52G0JJIG1TS9HI23VEN9OFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('fa70be73-9e80-5d67-8003-97a7bb7807d9'), 'title': 'Central Bank Operation Daily', 'author': 'Li Mingyu', 'orgName': '新湖期货股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80030099', 'orgSName': '新湖期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-28', 'encodeUrl': 'wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9AeecbT+myitIgtsqnVnwrU=', 'researcher': '李明玉', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197321'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9AeecbT+myitIgtsqnVnwrU=', 'site': 'Xinhu Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '新湖期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623939209_1.pdf?1709119914000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623939209_1.pdf?1709119914000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Central Bank Operation Daily', 'originalAuthor': '李明玉', 'originalContent': '公开市场操作：2月28日中国央行今日进行3240亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.80%，与此前持平。因今日有490亿元7天期逆回购到期，当日实现净投放2750亿元。MLF操作：今日央行无MLF投放与操作，中标利率为2.50%，与此前一致PSL操作：今日央行无PSL投放与操作。TMLF：今日无TMLF到期与操作。国库定存操作：今日无国库定存到期及操作。', 'content': \"Open market operations: On February 28, the People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 324 billion yuan today, with the winning interest rate being 1.80%, the same as before. As 49 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos expired today, a net investment of 275 billion yuan was realized on that day. MLF operation: There is no MLF placement or operation by the central bank today, and the winning interest rate is 2.50%, which is consistent with the previous PSL operation: There is no PSL placement or operation by the central bank today. TMLF: There are no TMLF expirations and operations today. Treasury fixed deposit operations: There are no treasury fixed deposit expirations and operations today.\", 'authorid': UUID('06615761-5e26-57d2-b056-2b9f0d8913bd'), 'sentimentScore': 0.024870751425623894, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '793013KE2SOM57P2U2GL1QH8J3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:43 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '793013KE2SOM57P2U2GL1QH8J3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('00922046-ffb1-529e-87f9-af413cc3a43d'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly: Spring Festival consumption releases vitality, social financing credit gets off to a good start', 'author': 'Ye Yanwu, Yu Jie', 'orgName': '光大期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80103744', 'orgSName': '光大期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-28', 'encodeUrl': 'wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9Hc4Jv5x0BRnf4OJh0NqrtE=', 'researcher': '叶燕武,于洁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000208423', '11000444556'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9Hc4Jv5x0BRnf4OJh0NqrtE=', 'site': 'Everbright Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '光大期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623928080_1.pdf?1709116420000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623928080_1.pdf?1709116420000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly: Spring Festival consumption releases vitality, social financing credit gets off to a good start', 'originalAuthor': '叶燕武,于洁', 'originalContent': '实体经济方面：投资行业，节后投资行业需求恢复较弱，五大品种钢材表需和水泥磨机运转率、出货量较节前回落较多，沥青开工率和出货量偏弱。消费行业，春节期间出行火热，节后一线及主要二线城市地铁客运量恢复至节前水平，拥堵延时指数恢复力度偏弱。春节假期楼市总体仍处于缓慢修复阶段，成交延续元旦趋势，新房热度不及二手房。数据方面：央行在2月10日公布1月份社融信贷数据，社融信贷数据取得开门红并超出市场预期。信贷总量和结构的双优，显示信贷对实体经济的支持力度加大，有利于稳增长政策的效果。M1增速和M1-M2剪刀差回升表明市场流动性在好转。社融分项来看，1月份提前批地方债发行规模并不大，对社融的拉动减弱。新增未贴现银行承兑汇票和企业债券融资是同比增量的主要贡献项。新增未贴现银行承兑汇票的同比多增主要受到票据融资同比大幅减少的影响，即企业贷款结构较优，存量票据被较少贴现用于融资，导致未贴现银行承兑汇票同比增加。人民币贷款同比多增162亿元，分部门看，住户贷款同比多增7229亿元，其中短期贷款同比多增3187亿元，中长期同比多增4041亿元。企业贷款同比少增8200亿元，短期贷款同比少增500亿元，票据融资同比少增5606亿元，中长期贷款同比少增1900亿元。人民币贷款分项中，从同比来看，住户贷款好于企业贷款，但企业贷款主要受到去年同期政策性开发性金融工具形成的基数比较高的影响，从绝对值来看今年1月的企业短期贷款和中长期贷款均处于仅次于2023年的较高水平。并且从结构上看企业贷款质量较优，票据融资同比大幅减少5606亿元。住户贷款明显回暖，住户短期贷款在春节错位效应的加持下处于近几年最高水平，且明显高于去年同期。住户中长期贷款处于同比大幅好转，但绝对值处于近几年次低水平。下周关注:中国2月官方PMI（周五）', 'content': \"In terms of real economy: investment industry, the demand recovery of the investment industry after the holiday is weak. The surface demand of the five major steel products and the cement mill operation rate and shipment volume have fallen more than before the holiday. The asphalt operating rate and shipment volume are relatively weak. In the consumer industry, travel is booming during the Spring Festival. After the holiday, subway passenger volume in first-tier and major second-tier cities has returned to pre-holiday levels, and the recovery of the congestion delay index has been weak. The property market is generally still in a slow recovery stage during the Spring Festival holiday. Transactions continue the New Year's Day trend, and new homes are not as popular as second-hand homes. Data: The central bank released social credit data for January on February 10. The social credit data got off to a good start and exceeded market expectations. The double excellence in the total amount and structure of credit shows that credit has increased its support for the real economy and is conducive to the effect of policies to stabilize growth. The rebound in M1 growth rate and M1-M2 scissors indicates that market liquidity is improving. Looking at the social financing sub-item, the scale of local government bond issuance approved in advance in January was not large, and the stimulus to social financing weakened. New undiscounted bank acceptance bills and corporate bond financing were the main contributors to the year-on-year increase. The year-on-year increase in new undiscounted bank acceptance bills was mainly affected by the significant year-on-year decrease in bill financing, that is, the corporate loan structure was better, and the existing bills were less discounted for financing, resulting in a year-on-year increase in undiscounted bank acceptance bills. RMB loans increased by 16.2 billion yuan year-on-year. Looking at different sectors, household loans increased by 722.9 billion yuan year-on-year, of which short-term loans increased by 318.7 billion yuan year-on-year, and medium and long-term loans increased by 404.1 billion yuan year-on-year. Corporate loans decreased by 820 billion yuan year-on-year, short-term loans decreased by 50 billion yuan year-on-year, bill financing decreased by 560.6 billion yuan year-on-year, and medium and long-term loans decreased by 190 billion yuan year-on-year. In the RMB loan sub-item, from a year-on-year perspective, household loans are better than corporate loans, but corporate loans are mainly affected by the relatively high base formed by policy-based development financial instruments in the same period last year. From an absolute value perspective, corporate short-term loans in January this year Both loans and medium- and long-term loans are at a high level next to 2023. And from a structural point of view, the quality of corporate loans is relatively good, with bill financing significantly reduced by 560.6 billion yuan year-on-year. Household loans have picked up significantly, and household short-term loans are at the highest level in recent years, supported by the dislocation effect of the Spring Festival, and are significantly higher than the same period last year. Household mid- and long-term loans have improved significantly year-on-year, but the absolute value is at the second lowest level in recent years. Watch next week: China’s official February PMI (Friday)\", 'authorid': UUID('489b7577-bfb7-5d18-ad2f-fa790d25f98b'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9602394355461001, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TCVU9IT06B8IHL945PVOCTQQRJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:46 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TCVU9IT06B8IHL945PVOCTQQRJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3eb90bd0-4930-56a9-9452-f3a7a51acd1c'), 'title': 'Major asset class strategy weekly report', 'author': '', 'orgName': '光大期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80103744', 'orgSName': '光大期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-28', 'encodeUrl': 'wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9HHgwFRi2r8XSbjToN3oUo4=', 'researcher': '', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': '', 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9HHgwFRi2r8XSbjToN3oUo4=', 'site': 'Everbright Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '光大期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623928031_1.pdf?1709133480000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623928031_1.pdf?1709133480000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Major asset class strategy weekly report', 'originalAuthor': '', 'originalContent': '大类资产配置：欧美利率路径的反复扰动1.海外宏观：欧美会议纪要打击市场降息预期(1)欧美2月经济景气度数据出炉：美国2月Markit制造业较1月进一步改善，继续位于荣枯线上方，创下2022年9月以来的最快增长，主要受益于订单增长强劲。美国2月Markit制造业PMI初值51.5，创17个月新高，预期50.7，前值50.7；服务业PMI初值51.3，创三个月新低，预期52.3，前值52.5；综合PMI初值51.4，预期51.8，前值52。欧元区方面，受益于服务业超强表现，欧元区整体商业活动下滑趋势有所缓解。欧元区2月综合PMI由47.9升至48.9，略高于预期值48.5，为连续第9个月处于荣枯线下。而服务业则从48.5跃升至50，远超预期值48.8，结束持续6个月的萎缩。制造业仍然是欧元区经济的拖累，2月制造业PMI从1月的46.6滑落至46.1，逊于预期值47，显示欧元区制造业的低迷在本月进一步加深。(2)欧美降息路径大幅调整：美联储会议纪要显示联储官员认为，政策利率可能处于峰值，在更有信心通胀会达标前，不适合降息；大多数官员强调不确定高利率持续多久、强调以评估数据判断降通胀进展的重要性。市场对于美联储降息预期快速回调，最早降息时点延后至6月，且全年降息幅度骤降至85bp，且若通胀持续反弹，将可能重新收紧货币政策。欧央行会议纪要同样打击了市场对于降息的乐观预期。会议纪要指出，欧央行官员认为过早降息比过度紧缩更加危险，如果经济活动比预期更强劲、工资增长加速或出现新的通胀压力，央行可能需要重新收紧政策。会议纪要公布后，交易员下调欧央行的降息幅度至100个基点以下。2.大类资产表现：科技股财报提振下全球股指多数收涨；降息预期再度回调，美债收益率整体上行，中美利差再度走扩；欧元区PMI小幅回暖提振欧元表现，美元指数下行，其他非美元货币表现不一；人民币继续小幅调整，离岸人民币小幅升值；地缘政治与海外宏观冲击共同扰动国际商品价格，国内商品价格整体呈现延续承压分化的态势。(1)债市方面，在会议纪要偏鹰和CPI数据等影响下，市场宽松预期继续回调，美债收益率继续反弹；欧洲PMI小幅回暖，但德国表现不佳，德国十年期国债收益率出现上行；国内资金面持续改善，十年期国债收益率周度下行3.8个bp至2.40%附近，中美十年期债券收益率利差扩大至185个基点。(2)汇率方面，美元指数周内小幅回落，周内下跌0.3%，报收103.97，欧元区经济状况有所改善，支撑欧元价格上行。人民币周内小幅调整，最新美元兑人民币报收7.1064（前一周为7.1036），离岸人民币报收7.2068（一周前为7.2216）。(3)股市方面，美联储会议纪要偏鹰，引发市场对于降息的预期回调，权益市场风险偏好受到一定压制，但在科技股财报超预期盈利的提振下，全球股指表现多数收涨。MSCI世界领先以及MSCI世界指数周度涨跌幅分别为1.46%和1.49%，MSCI发达国家指数微涨0.06%，MSCI新兴市场指数上涨1.19%。(4)大宗商品方面，欧佩克联盟减产及中东红海局势支撑油市，IEA下调原油需求增长预估，需求端忧虑加剧震荡，带动原油价格周内宽幅震荡。贵金属方面，美联储暂缓降息与地缘冲突共同影响下，comex黄金本周上涨23美元，收于2037.4美元/盎司，较上周上涨1.14%。国内商品期货市场资金净流出201.45亿元，在海外宏观风险冲击和国内多举措推进经济恢复向好的综合影响下，大宗商品整体呈现延续承压分化的态势。其中，受外盘影响，能化商品整体偏强，贵金属小幅回落，农产品板块表现分化，黑色商品表现偏弱。3.下周关注重点：国内关注中国2月官方PMI；海外关注美国1月PCE物价数据和2月ISM非制造业指数', 'content': \"Major asset allocation: repeated disturbances in the interest rate paths of Europe and the United States 1. Overseas macro: European and American meeting minutes dampened market interest rate cut expectations (1) Economic prosperity data in Europe and the United States in February are released: the Markit manufacturing industry in the United States further improved in February compared with January, and continues to be in prosperity Above the dry line, it recorded the fastest growth since September 2022, mainly benefiting from strong order growth. The initial value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in February was 51.5, a 17-month high, and was expected to be 50.7, and the previous value was 50.7; the initial service PMI value was 51.3, a three-month low, and was expected to be 52.3, and the previous value was 52.5; the initial comprehensive PMI value was 51.4, Expected 51.8, previous value 52. In the Eurozone, benefiting from the strong performance of the service industry, the downward trend in overall business activities in the Eurozone has eased. The Eurozone's comprehensive PMI rose from 47.9 to 48.9 in February, slightly higher than the expected value of 48.5, marking the ninth consecutive month of being below the boom-bust line. The service industry jumped from 48.5 to 50, far exceeding the expected value of 48.8, ending six months of contraction. The manufacturing industry remains a drag on the euro zone economy. The manufacturing PMI in February fell to 46.1 from 46.6 in January, which was worse than the expected value of 47, indicating that the downturn in the euro zone manufacturing industry has further deepened this month. (2) Interest rate cuts in Europe and the United States were significantly adjusted: The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that Fed officials believed that policy interest rates may be at their peak, and it is not appropriate to cut interest rates before they are more confident that inflation will reach the target; most officials emphasized that they were not sure how long high interest rates would last, and emphasized that they should evaluate The importance of data in judging progress in reducing inflation. The market's expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have been rapidly adjusted back. The earliest interest rate cut has been postponed to June, and the annual rate cut has plummeted to 85bp. If inflation continues to rebound, monetary policy may be tightened again. The ECB meeting minutes also dampened the market's optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts. The minutes of the meeting stated that ECB officials believe that premature interest rate cuts are more dangerous than excessive tightening. If economic activity is stronger than expected, wage growth accelerates, or new inflationary pressures arise, the central bank may need to tighten policy again. After the meeting minutes were released, traders lowered the ECB's interest rate cut to less than 100 basis points. 2. Performance of major asset classes: Most global stock indexes closed higher, boosted by financial reports from technology stocks; interest rate cut expectations were revised back again, U.S. bond yields rose as a whole, and the interest rate gap between China and the United States widened again; a slight recovery in Eurozone PMI boosted the performance of the euro, and the U.S. dollar The index fell, and other non-USD currencies performed mixedly; the RMB continued to adjust slightly, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly; geopolitics and overseas macro shocks jointly disturbed international commodity prices, and domestic commodity prices overall continued to be under pressure and differentiated. (1) In terms of the bond market, under the influence of the meeting minutes and CPI data, market easing expectations continued to adjust, and U.S. bond yields continued to rebound; European PMI picked up slightly, but Germany performed poorly, and German ten-year government bond yields continued to rebound. There has been an upward trend; domestic funding continues to improve, with the ten-year government bond yield falling 3.8 basis points per week to around 2.40%, and the spread between China and the United States' ten-year bond yields widening to 185 basis points. (2) In terms of exchange rates, the U.S. dollar index fell slightly during the week, falling 0.3% during the week to close at 103.97. The economic conditions in the euro zone have improved, supporting the rise in euro prices. The RMB adjusted slightly during the week, with the latest USD/CNY closing at 7.1064 (7.1036 the previous week), and the offshore RMB closing at 7.2068 (7.2216 a week ago). (3) In terms of the stock market, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were hawkish, triggering a callback in market expectations for interest rate cuts. Risk appetite in the equity market was suppressed to a certain extent. However, boosted by the earnings of technology stocks that exceeded expectations, most global stock indexes closed higher. The MSCI World Leading and MSCI World indexes had weekly gains and losses of 1.46% and 1.49% respectively. The MSCI Developed Countries Index rose slightly by 0.06%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 1.19%. (4) In terms of commodities, the OPEC alliance's production cuts and the situation in the Red Sea in the Middle East supported the oil market. The IEA lowered its forecast for crude oil demand growth, and demand-side concerns intensified the shock, driving crude oil prices to fluctuate widely during the week. In terms of precious metals, under the combined influence of the Federal Reserve's suspension of interest rate cuts and geopolitical conflicts, comex gold rose by $23 this week and closed at $2,037.4 per ounce, up 1.14% from last week. The net outflow of funds in the domestic commodity futures market was 20.145 billion yuan. Under the combined influence of overseas macro risk shocks and multiple domestic measures to promote economic recovery, commodities as a whole showed a trend of continued pressure and differentiation. Among them, affected by the external market, energy and chemical commodities were overall stronger, precious metals fell slightly, the performance of the agricultural products sector was differentiated, and the performance of black commodities was weak. 3. Focus next week: domestically, focus on China’s official PMI in February; overseas, focus on the US PCE price data in January and the February ISM non-manufacturing index\", 'authorid': UUID('0a68eb57-c88a-5f34-9e9d-27f85e68af4f'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9154397938400507, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'P3QEINQGE3LBK4GQK5JQHMF9SJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:49 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'P3QEINQGE3LBK4GQK5JQHMF9SJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('26ad30ea-b008-551a-907a-fd25fb73ae63'), 'title': 'Macro Research: How will Japanese stocks perform after hitting new highs?', 'author': 'Zhang Jun, Yang Chao, Gao Ming, Xu Dongshi', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-28', 'encodeUrl': 'wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9EDhIdlMxQxriV3XTAPHVBs=', 'researcher': '章俊,杨超,高明,许冬石', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000406637', '11000262937', '11000185520'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wrWHQ95ZauEzhKCWej4b9EDhIdlMxQxriV3XTAPHVBs=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623927828_1.pdf?1709115035000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402281623927828_1.pdf?1709115035000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Research: How will Japanese stocks perform after hitting new highs?', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,杨超,高明,许冬石', 'originalContent': '核心观点：近期日本股市一路高歌猛进，并突破了1989年底创下的最高收盘记录，今年以来日经225的涨幅也超过了18%，东证指数上涨超过12%。市场仍在不断上调对日本股市的预测。我们认为日本股市走强背后有三重主要因素。（一）支持日股上涨的内外条件趋于成熟，包括四个方面：1.薪资和通胀螺旋上升，日本有望走出通缩。全球大通胀浪潮助推日本将安倍经济学以来的积极政策转化为去通缩的实际效果。2.日本央行的宽松货币政策为股价提供了支撑。虽然日央行或在4月前后退出YCC和NIRP，但预计其政策“正常化”仍保持谨慎克制。3.日元汇率疲软有利于日本出口，并使日本公司股票对外国投资者更具吸引力。4.海外环境趋于稳定，投资气氛有利日股。（二）市场层面：盈利改善，资金流入，估值提升。日本企业的盈利持续改善，这是推动日股上涨的核心基本面利好。得益于日本企业在提高生产效率和成本控制方面的努力，利润率持续上升到历史高位。对日企的盈利预期也在显著改善。同时，海内外资金持续流入，推高日股估值。自2023年初至2024年2月中，外资总计净流入超过550亿美元，是2014年以来最快速度。（三）制度改进层面：关键的“一增一减”。交叉持股比例过高和分红回购不足，是日本股市长期被诟病的两个方面。如果说减少交叉持股是为了加快解决日股在企业治理方面的陈年旧疾，那加大回购分红则是致力于提升资本回报、提高长期吸引力的重大变革。近期的积极改变也是日股吸引到更多长线投资的重要原因。日股前景如何？和1989年泡沫不同，当前日股主要是盈利支撑。日经225预期市盈率约22.5倍，仍在过去20年均值加一个标准差范围内。我们认为短期内日股将继续受益于通缩改善预期、盈利提升、资金流入以及公司治理改善这四大支柱的支撑，目前看还没有进入严重过热状态。年中美国可能开始降息利于权益市场。如果中美经济动能强于预期，制造业周期好转，日本企业也会受益。在美国经济衰退、美元指数大幅下行和日元大幅升值这三项不出现的基准情景下，日经225指数在2024年有望站上40,000点并冲高至42000点，但后市波动会加大。在目前投资情绪高涨背景下，要格外留意四点风险。首先是海外股市波动，例如AI主题泡沫破裂、资金获利回吐、货币政策等因素触发的回调。第二是日本经济下行风险，目前陷入技术性衰退，如果反弹不及预期，则基本面对日股的��累最终还是会显现。第三，如果日本央行在时间点或者节奏上比市场预期的更鹰派，甚至转向连续加息，则日本企业的利息负担将会增加，日股也会明显承压。最后，外部环境对日股影响较大，地缘政治风险的上升可能导致外资投资者风险偏好下降。风险提示1.日本经济和通胀不及预期风险2.海外股市回调风险3.美日货币政策超预期调整风险4.地缘政治的风险', 'content': 'Core point of view: Recently, the Japanese stock market has been on a roll and has exceeded the highest closing record set at the end of 1989. The Nikkei 225 has also increased by more than 18% this year, and the Topix Index has increased by more than 12%. The market continues to raise its forecasts for the Japanese stock market. We believe there are three main factors behind the strength in Japanese stocks. (1) The internal and external conditions supporting the rise of Japanese stocks are maturing, including four aspects: 1. Wages and inflation are spiraling, and Japan is expected to emerge from deflation. The global inflationary wave has helped Japan transform its proactive policies since Abenomics into actual deflationary effects. 2. The Bank of Japan’s loose monetary policy has provided support for stock prices. Although the Bank of Japan may withdraw from YCC and NIRP around April, it is expected to remain cautious and restrained in the \"normalization\" of its policy. 3. A weaker yen benefits Japanese exports and makes Japanese company stocks more attractive to foreign investors. 4. The overseas environment has stabilized and investment sentiment is favorable for Japanese stocks. (2) Market level: earnings improvement, capital inflow, and valuation increase. The profitability of Japanese companies continues to improve, which is the core fundamental good factor driving the rise of Japanese stocks. Thanks to Japanese companies\\' efforts to improve production efficiency and cost control, profit margins continue to rise to historically high levels. Earnings expectations for Japanese companies have also improved significantly. At the same time, domestic and overseas capital continued to inflow, pushing up the valuation of Japanese stocks. From the beginning of 2023 to mid-February 2024, the total net inflow of foreign capital exceeded US$55 billion, the fastest pace since 2014. (3) System improvement level: the key \"one increase and one decrease\". Excessive cross-shareholding ratios and insufficient dividend buybacks are two aspects that have long been criticized in the Japanese stock market. If the reduction of cross-shareholdings is to speed up the resolution of the old problems in corporate governance of Japanese stocks, then the increase in repurchase dividends is a major change committed to increasing capital returns and improving long-term attractiveness. Recent positive changes are also an important reason why Japanese stocks have attracted more long-term investment. What is the outlook for Japanese stocks? Unlike the 1989 bubble, current Japanese stocks are mainly supported by earnings. The Nikkei 225\\'s expected price-to-earnings ratio is about 22.5 times, still within the range of the average plus one standard deviation over the past 20 years. We believe that in the short term, Japanese stocks will continue to benefit from the support of the four pillars of expectations of improved deflation, improved profits, capital inflows, and improved corporate governance. At present, they have not entered a serious overheating state. The United States may start to cut interest rates in the middle of the year, which will benefit the equity market. If the economic momentum of China and the United States is stronger than expected and the manufacturing cycle improves, Japanese companies will also benefit. Under the three non-occurring baseline scenarios of a U.S. economic recession, a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar index, and a sharp appreciation of the yen, the Nikkei 225 Index is expected to reach 40,000 points and reach 42,000 points in 2024, but the market outlook will be more volatile. Against the backdrop of current high investment sentiment, we should pay special attention to four risks. The first is the fluctuation of overseas stock markets, such as the bursting of the AI \\u200b\\u200btheme bubble, capital profit-taking, monetary policy and other factors triggering callbacks. The second is the downside risk of the Japanese economy, which is currently in a technical recession. If the rebound is less than expected, the fundamental drag on Japanese stocks will eventually appear. Third, if the Bank of Japan is more hawkish in timing or rhythm than the market expects, or even turns to continuous interest rate hikes, the interest burden of Japanese companies will increase and Japanese stocks will be significantly pressured. Finally, the external environment has a greater impact on Japanese stocks, and rising geopolitical risks may lead to a decline in foreign investors\\' risk appetite. Risk warning 1. The risk of Japan’s economy and inflation falling short of expectations 2. The risk of a correction in overseas stock markets 3. The risk of unexpected adjustments to U.S. and Japanese monetary policies 4. Geopolitical risks', 'authorid': UUID('978601a6-4c3d-5a3a-b158-39478298eaff'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8333266917616129, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OITV49KE18HG06D4L02V6M4JC7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OITV49KE18HG06D4L02V6M4JC7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6aabefe7-c9ce-5cee-bb65-266a68814dd0'), 'title': 'CFTC position analysis weekly report', 'author': 'Shang Lina, Shi Jialiang', 'orgName': '方正中期期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066668', 'orgSName': '方正中期期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6Zrtvo1uYCOfjdqWVUzEL8e2UcM=', 'researcher': '尚丽娜,史家亮', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000451032', '11000300434'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6Zrtvo1uYCOfjdqWVUzEL8e2UcM=', 'site': 'Founder Medium-Term Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '方正中期期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623791046_1.pdf?1709064820000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623791046_1.pdf?1709064820000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'CFTC position analysis weekly report', 'originalAuthor': '尚丽娜,史家亮', 'originalContent': '宏观经济解读【联储鹰派讲话对市场影响有限，联储6月降息可能性大】美联储官员继续发表偏鹰派讲话，强调今年晚些时候降息，当前放松政策的必要性低，但是已经被市场所计价，故对市场的影响相对有限，美元指数震荡运行，美债收益率冲高回落，贵金属震荡走强。具体来看，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，可能在今年晚些时候降息，加息不是他预想的基本情况；预计今年消费支出增长将放缓；如果通胀进展停滞，将不得不重新思考前景。美联储理事沃勒表示，1月份消费者价格飙升，需要谨慎决定何时开始降息，尽管他仍预计今年晚些时候将开始降息。鉴于经济和劳动力市场的强劲，放松政策“没有太大的紧迫性”。高盛下调对美联储的降息预期，预计美联储6月才会降息，全年仅降息4次，分别在6月、7月、9月和12月。高盛此前预测今年将有五次降息。对于美联储而言，基于美联储官员表态和经济数据表现，我们认为联储将在3月释放降息信号，2024年6月开启降息周期的概率依然较大，预计美联储将会在2024年降息3次/75BP。另外，美国中小银行业风险仍无法排除，美国临时支出法案仍存在风险，如果银行业危机和政府关门风险再度来袭，美联储亦不排除提前降息可能。美联储3月和5月降息可能性小，大部分被市场所计价和兑现，在没有进一步明显转变前，对市场影响相对有限，更容易出现影响兑现后的反向影响。【欧洲央行6月降息可能性大】欧洲通胀预期有所回升，尽管经济陷入衰退边缘，但是欧洲央行官员淡化过早降息预期，预计6月降息可能性大。欧洲央行最新调查显示，欧元区消费者对未来一年的通胀预期有所上升，从去年12月的3.2%上升至今年1月的3.3%，对未来三年的通胀预期则保持稳定。欧元区经济火车头经济陷入技术性衰退，预计将会进一步走弱，德国去年第四季度季调后GDP修正值环比萎缩0.3%，与此前公布的初值一致，意味着这个欧元区最大经济体已经陷入技术性衰退；德国央行预计，今年第一季度GDP可能再次收缩。欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，欧元区四季度薪资数据令人鼓舞，但降息动作仍需确信通胀放缓可持续。欧洲央行管委霍尔茨曼称，宁可晚一点、快一点降息，也不要过早降息，不认为会在美联储之前降息。内格尔称，最好以渐进的方式降息，首次降息也不应操之过急。斯图纳拉斯称，绝对不会在3月份降息，预计6月将首次降息。对于欧洲央行而言，当前依然面临地缘政治、能源危机预计内生经济增长动力不足等因素引发的经济偏弱态势和通胀的不确定性，欧洲央行不会急于降息，但是也不会滞后，预计6月降息可能性大。', 'content': 'Macroeconomic Interpretation [The Fed\\'s hawkish speech has limited impact on the market, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in June] Fed officials continue to make hawkish speeches, emphasizing an interest rate cut later this year. The current need to relax policy is low, but it has been dismissed by the market pricing, so the impact on the market is relatively limited. The U.S. dollar index fluctuates, U.S. bond yields rise and fall, and precious metals fluctuate and strengthen. Specifically, New York Fed President Williams said that interest rates may be cut later this year, and that raising interest rates is not the basic situation he expected; consumer spending growth is expected to slow down this year; if inflation progress stalls, the outlook will have to be rethought. Fed Governor John Waller said consumer prices surged in January and caution was needed in deciding when to start cutting interest rates, although he still expected rate cuts to begin later this year. Given the strength of the economy and labor market, there is \"not much urgency\" in easing policy. Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates in June, and will only cut interest rates four times throughout the year, in June, July, September and December. Goldman Sachs had previously forecast five interest rate cuts this year. For the Federal Reserve, based on the statements of Federal Reserve officials and the performance of economic data, we believe that the Federal Reserve will release an interest rate cut signal in March. The probability of starting an interest rate cut cycle in June 2024 is still high. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2024/75BP . In addition, risks to the U.S. small and medium-sized banking industry cannot be ruled out, and there are still risks in the U.S. temporary spending bill. If the risk of banking crisis and government shutdown strikes again, the Federal Reserve will not rule out the possibility of cutting interest rates in advance. The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in March and May is small, and most of them will be priced and realized by the market. Before there is any further obvious change, the impact on the market will be relatively limited, and it is more likely to have a reverse impact after the impact is realized. [European Central Bank is likely to cut interest rates in June] Inflation expectations in Europe have picked up. Although the economy is on the verge of recession, ECB officials have downplayed expectations of premature interest rate cuts, and it is expected that an interest rate cut in June is very likely. The latest ECB survey shows that Eurozone consumers’ inflation expectations for the next year have increased, from 3.2% in December last year to 3.3% in January this year, while inflation expectations for the next three years have remained stable. The Eurozone economic locomotive has fallen into a technical recession and is expected to weaken further. Germany\\'s seasonally adjusted GDP in the fourth quarter of last year shrank by 0.3% from the previous quarter, consistent with the previously announced initial value, which means that the largest economy in the Eurozone has fallen into Technical recession; the Bundesbank predicts that GDP may contract again in the first quarter of this year. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that fourth-quarter wage data in the euro zone was encouraging, but that interest rate cuts still require confidence that the slowdown in inflation is sustainable. ECB Governing Council member Holzmann said that it would be better to cut interest rates later and faster than to cut interest rates too early, and he does not think that interest rates will be cut before the Federal Reserve. Nagel said it is best to cut interest rates in a gradual manner, and the first rate cut should not be rushed. Stunalas said there will definitely be no interest rate cut in March and the first rate cut is expected to be in June. For the European Central Bank, it is still facing the uncertainty of economic weakness and inflation caused by factors such as geopolitics and the energy crisis, and it is expected that endogenous economic growth will be insufficient. The European Central Bank will not be in a hurry to cut interest rates, but it will not lag behind. It is expected that A rate cut in June is highly likely.', 'authorid': UUID('c07024d1-cc74-5ca2-906a-272054eb5406'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8125784415751696, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'QU5VMG9QMUCD7V8D8GAV94QFLRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:54 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'QU5VMG9QMUCD7V8D8GAV94QFLRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a0678418-79c6-5947-8bb5-6c5e7cf32fd3'), 'title': 'The U.S. economic cycle may start to move upward', 'author': 'Zhou Yaqi , Zhu Qibing', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvojF18/0MJWwBs2cVnaEmF0=', 'researcher': '周亚齐,朱启兵', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000429332', '11000224223'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvojF18/0MJWwBs2cVnaEmF0=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623742835_1.pdf?1709054054000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623742835_1.pdf?1709054054000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The U.S. economic cycle may start to move upward', 'originalAuthor': '周亚齐,朱启兵', 'originalContent': '美国经济周期初现触底回升的迹象，但美股计价或已经较为充分，其它风险资产或存在机会。美国经济周期观察：基于企业盈利的美国经济周期近期已经显现出触底回升的迹象，美国经济周期或已经进入新一轮上行时期。标普500指数及其一级细分行业净利润增速整体改善，并且分析师一致预期该趋势有望延续。高频数据显示美国经济韧性仍存，经济周期回升或仍在途中。利率水平的回落并不是经济周期上行的必要条件。强健的居民资产负债表以及生产效率的提高助推本轮美国经济周期上行，但上行周期被打断的风险仍然存在。大类资产判断：美股对于本轮美国经济周期上行的计价或已经比较充分中美经济周期有望共振上行并助推铜油、AH股等风险资产的回暖。风险提示：美国经济周期走势偏离预期，美国货币和财政政策超预期收紧，金融风险再次爆发，地缘政治以及黑天鹅事件扰动经济周期。', 'content': 'The U.S. economic cycle is showing signs of bottoming out, but U.S. stocks may have been fully priced, and there may be opportunities for other risky assets. U.S. Business Cycle Observation: The U.S. economic cycle based on corporate profits has recently shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the U.S. economic cycle may have entered a new upward period. The net profit growth of the S&P 500 Index and its first-level sub-industries has improved overall, and analysts unanimously expect this trend to continue. High-frequency data shows that the U.S. economy remains resilient and that the economic cycle may still be recovering. A fall in interest rates is not a necessary condition for an upward economic cycle. Strong household balance sheets and improvements in productivity have boosted the current U.S. economic cycle, but the risk of interruption of the upward cycle still exists. Judgment of major asset categories: U.S. stocks may have fully priced in the current upward trend of the U.S. economic cycle. The Chinese and U.S. economic cycles are expected to resonate upward and boost the recovery of risk assets such as copper oil and AH stocks. Risk warning: The U.S. economic cycle has deviated from expectations, U.S. monetary and fiscal policies have tightened beyond expectations, financial risks have erupted again, and geopolitics and black swan events have disrupted the economic cycle.', 'authorid': UUID('f45139fc-bbea-5975-8c64-cec4e899633c'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9203076157718897, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'JKKE7IAV0AE5G9GMVKAH00FUBNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:57 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'JKKE7IAV0AE5G9GMVKAH00FUBNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('54df1654-60ef-5e5f-9e42-75c2462d7887'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic special research: Guosen Macro Diffusion Index’s guidance on short-frequency stock and bond trading', 'author': 'Li Zhizhi, Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvnajkBrSrNbZfkOm9By/1do=', 'researcher': '李智能,董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245053', '11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvnajkBrSrNbZfkOm9By/1do=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623742180_1.pdf?1709052436000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623742180_1.pdf?1709052436000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic special research: Guosen Macro Diffusion Index’s guidance on short-frequency stock and bond trading', 'originalAuthor': '李智能,董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点资产价格拟合以及胜率测算框架。按“周六至下周五”的时间区间取十年期国债利率、上证综指、南华工业品指数、美元兑人民币汇率中间价的周度平均值，得到周度资产价格序列。按周度资产价格序列的时间区间，计算国信高频宏观扩散指数B的周度平均值，可以得到周度高频指标序列（注：在计算周度高频指标序列过程中，若遇到高频数据缺失的情况，则假定缺失的数据等于上一周的数值）。进一步地，采用国信高频宏观扩散指数周度同比数据来拟合资产价格。考虑到周度基本面数据的采集到周末才结束，本周的基本面数据大概率在下周才会被资产价格所消化，因此采用国信高频宏观扩散指数周度同比拟合下一周的资产价格。国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格的拟合结果。运用上述框架，我们可得到国信宏观扩散指数对各类资产价格的拟合模型。十年期国债收益率，上证综合指数、南华工业品指数、美元兑人民币汇率拟合模型的相关系数分别为0.848、0.483、0.288、-0.533。国信高频宏观扩散指数拟合资产价格的胜率分析。我们使用方向胜率来判定国信高频宏观扩散指数拟合资产价格的好坏（方向胜率=拟合值相对上周真实值的变动方向与实际资产价格运行方向一致的概率大小）。从结果来看，国信高频宏观扩散指数拟合十年期国债利率以及上证综指的方向胜率较高，拟合南华工业品指数以及美元兑人民币汇率的方向胜率偏低，特别是拟合美元兑人民币汇率的方向胜率明显低于50%。此外，方向胜率的稳健性需要较长的时间来验证。此处十年国债收益率的方向胜率是从2019年10月开始统计，上证综合指数是2021年2月，南华工业品指数是2023年3月。此处十年期国债收益率和上证综合指数的方向胜率较高且验证的时间较长，因此预测结果的稳健性值得信赖，但南华工业品指数方向胜率验证的时间尚短，其方向胜率维持在54%以上的不确定性还比较大。当前国内利率和股票价格或明显偏离国内基本面。本周（2024年2月23日所在周）十年期国债收益率、上证综合指数的预测值明显高于实际发生值，预测值与实际发生值的偏差历史分位数达到90%以上，表明当前国内利率和股票价格明显偏离了国信宏观扩散指数所捕抓到的国内基本面情况。模型的预测结果显示，下周（2024年3月1日所在周）十年期国债收益率、上证综合指数预测值仍明显高于本周数值，预计下周十年期国债收益率、上证综合指数将上行并向模型拟合值靠拢。风险提示：拟合模型失去稳健性，政府经济刺激力度下降，经济增速下滑。', 'content': 'The core viewpoint is asset price fitting and winning rate calculation framework. The weekly asset price sequence is obtained by taking the weekly average of the ten-year government bond interest rate, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index, and the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate based on the time interval of \"Saturday to next Friday\". According to the time interval of the weekly asset price series, calculate the weekly average of the Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index B to obtain the weekly high-frequency indicator series (Note: During the calculation of the weekly high-frequency indicator series, if high-frequency In the case of missing frequent data, the missing data are assumed to be equal to the previous week\\'s value). Furthermore, the weekly year-on-year data of Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index is used to fit asset prices. Considering that the collection of weekly fundamental data does not end until the weekend, this week\\'s fundamental data will most likely not be digested by asset prices until next week. Therefore, the Guosen High Frequency Macro Diffusion Index is used to fit the asset prices of the next week on a year-on-year basis. . Fitting results of Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index to asset prices. Using the above framework, we can obtain the fitting model of the Guosen Macro Diffusion Index to various asset prices. The correlation coefficients of the ten-year government bond yield, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index, and the USD/CNY exchange rate fitting model are 0.848, 0.483, 0.288, and -0.533 respectively. Analysis of the winning rate of asset prices fitted by Guosen’s high-frequency macro-diffusion index. We use the directional winning rate to determine how well the Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index fits asset prices (directional winning rate = the probability that the direction of movement of the fitted value relative to last week\\'s true value is consistent with the actual asset price movement direction). Judging from the results, the Guosen High Frequency Macro Diffusion Index has a higher success rate in fitting the direction of the ten-year treasury bond interest rate and the Shanghai Composite Index, while the success rate in fitting the direction of the Nanhua Industrial Products Index and the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate is low, especially when fitting the US dollar. The winning rate against the RMB exchange rate is significantly lower than 50%. In addition, the robustness of the directional winning rate requires a longer period of time to verify. The directional winning rate of the ten-year government bond yield here is calculated from October 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index is February 2021, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index is March 2023. Here, the direction winning rate of the ten-year government bond yield and the Shanghai Composite Index is relatively high and takes a long time to verify, so the robustness of the prediction results is trustworthy. However, the time to verify the direction winning rate of the Nanhua Industrial Products Index is still short, and its direction winning rate remains The uncertainty above 54% is still relatively large. Current domestic interest rates and stock prices may deviate significantly from domestic fundamentals. This week (the week of February 23, 2024), the predicted values \\u200b\\u200bof the ten-year government bond yield and the Shanghai Composite Index were significantly higher than the actual values, and the historical quantile of the deviation between the predicted values \\u200b\\u200band the actual values \\u200b\\u200breached more than 90%, indicating that The current domestic interest rates and stock prices have clearly deviated from the domestic fundamentals captured by the Guosen Macro Diffusion Index. The prediction results of the model show that the predicted values \\u200b\\u200bof the ten-year government bond yield and the Shanghai Composite Index next week (the week of March 1, 2024) are still significantly higher than this week\\'s values. The index will move upwards towards the model fitted value. Risk warning: The fitting model loses its robustness, the government\\'s economic stimulus intensity declines, and the economic growth rate declines.', 'authorid': UUID('92623406-8214-5e94-84f7-458373c02882'), 'sentimentScore': -0.005432864651083946, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'P59S9EVUIAA72CR02GQU1Q8TLNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:08:59 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'P59S9EVUIAA72CR02GQU1Q8TLNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e3bac648-f0c0-551e-a843-2b6348ec87fd'), 'title': 'Weekly Economic Watch: Interest rates are still on the way down', 'author': 'Yuan Fang , Shu Jiapei', 'orgName': '国投证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80084302', 'orgSName': '国投证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvqzADfTY2hcZ9urB9gSQ3NQ=', 'researcher': '袁方,束加沛', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000337134', '11000370131'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvqzADfTY2hcZ9urB9gSQ3NQ=', 'site': 'SDIC Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623737677_1.pdf?1709048362000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623737677_1.pdf?1709048362000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly Economic Watch: Interest rates are still on the way down', 'originalAuthor': '袁方,束加沛', 'originalContent': '内容提要当前房地产行业面临的流动性压力仍然较大，地产销售数据的表现显著弱于季节性。在此背景下，近期房地产供应和需求端政策密集出台，但效果尚不明显。权益市场流动性压力的缓解推动指数超跌反弹，但市场能否转入趋势反转，仍然依赖于基本面和经济政策的走向，这一信号的确认需要时间。中期来看，考虑到经济的减速、资本报酬率的下降，以及未来政策利率相应的调降，债券市场收益率中枢的下行或许仍在途中。风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险（2）政策出台超预期', 'content': 'Executive summary The current liquidity pressure faced by the real estate industry is still relatively large, and the performance of real estate sales data is significantly weaker than seasonal. Against this background, real estate supply and demand-side policies have been intensively introduced recently, but the effects are not yet obvious. The relief of liquidity pressure in the equity market has promoted an oversold rebound in the index, but whether the market can turn into a trend reversal still depends on fundamentals and the direction of economic policies. The confirmation of this signal will take time. In the medium term, given the slowdown in the economy, the decline in return on capital, and the corresponding reduction in future policy interest rates, the bond market yield center may still be on its way to a downward trend. Risk warning: (1) Geopolitical risks (2) Policy introduction exceeds expectations', 'authorid': UUID('66c81f3c-61e1-5d1f-95e1-6739dac1004e'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6801842153072357, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'AVDBD5ETNR519PBK9UM9HTC2MRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:01 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'AVDBD5ETNR519PBK9UM9HTC2MRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('19f17f08-15e6-5ab4-90d9-ea29147c5ec9'), 'title': 'February 2024 LPR Comments: How much can interest rate bonds look like after the “interest rate cut” is implemented?', 'author': 'Zhang Hesheng', 'orgName': '上海证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000155', 'orgSName': '上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6Zrtvtc7Gw+37ZRK5+7R1XxGZ9A=', 'researcher': '张河生', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000250226'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6Zrtvtc7Gw+37ZRK5+7R1XxGZ9A=', 'site': 'Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '上海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623731597_1.pdf?1709042322000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623731597_1.pdf?1709042322000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'February 2024 LPR Comments: How much can interest rate bonds look like after the “interest rate cut” is implemented?', 'originalAuthor': '张河生', 'originalContent': '事件北京时间2024年2月20日，央行公布1年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）报3.45%，上月为3.45%；5年期以上LPR报3.95%，上月为4.2%。主要观点开年“红包”，非对称降息落地。2月18日央行投放逆回购与MLF时并没有下调7天逆回购利率以及1年期MLF利率，这次1年期LPR也并未下调。央行单独下调5年期LPR，超出我们的预期，从下调幅度来看，单次下降25BP，与最近2次长端存款利率下调幅度一致，2023年9月、12月3年与5年定存利率均下调25BP。我们认为央行在保护商业银行长端资产、负债息差的同时已经尽最大努力“降低社会融资成本”。短端资产利率不调降或为保护商业银行净息差。不降逆回购以及MLF利率的原因我们认为是央行倾向于保护商业银行的净息差。12月份商业银行短端的存款利率也不同程度下调，2月短端资产端利率不下调，则将扩大的商业短端资产负债息差得以保留，减缓商业银行经营压力。单独调降5年期LPR或主要为托地产。单独降5年期LPR的原因我们认为可能是为“托地产”。春节前一线城市不同程度放松地产调控政策，大中城市住宅销量略有起色，30大中城市日均销量作14天平均处理后同比短暂升高后再次跌至负区间。债市反响积极，降息也超出市场预期。利率债市场尤其是短端品种反响比较积极，说明此次降息也超出了市场预期。10年国债收益率下调2.10BP至2.41%，6个月及1年期国债收益率分别下降8.42BP与5.08BP。短期内调降逆回购利率与MLF利率概率不高。展望后市，我们认为短期内再次看到央行调降逆回购与MLF利率的概率并不高，2月份没有调降表明了一种态度。我们认为保护商业银行短端净息差缓解其经营压力这个逻辑季度范围仍然站得住脚。2024年经济增长目标或不高，经济平稳发展。我们认为后续债券市场交易的重点在于年初经济数据表现、两会经济增长目标制定以及稳增长政策出台，我们倾向于认为2024年经济表现会比较平稳，推动高质量发展意味着我们工作总基调是稳中求进，并不会制定过高的经济增长目标。利率债收益率向下进一步突破难度大，风险在积聚。10年国债收益率目前已经跌至2.4%附近，想要进一步向下突破需要额外的利好，这或来自三个方向：3月公布的年初经济数据大幅低于市场预期，两会定的目标低于市场预期，快速跟进下调短端资产利率或再次启动新一轮存款调降，我们认为这些发生的概率并不高。当前权益市场上涨，投资者风险偏好有所提升，当上述三个方向表现相反，我们认为债市可能开始出现调整。风险提示超预期稳增长政策出台；经济数据开门红，表现超预期；两会制定目标超预期。', 'content': 'Event: On February 20, 2024, Beijing time, the central bank announced that the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was at 3.45%, compared with 3.45% last month; the LPR over five years was reported at 3.95%, compared with 4.2% last month. The main point is to start the new year with a \"red envelope\" and implement asymmetric interest rate cuts. When the central bank launched reverse repurchase and MLF on February 18, it did not lower the 7-day reverse repurchase rate and the 1-year MLF interest rate. This time, the 1-year LPR was not lowered either. The central bank separately lowered the 5-year LPR, which exceeded our expectations. Judging from the magnitude of the reduction, the single decrease was 25BP, which is consistent with the two recent long-term deposit interest rate reductions. In September and December 2023, 3-year and 5-year fixed deposits Interest rates were lowered by 25BP. We believe that the central bank has done its best to \"reduce social financing costs\" while protecting commercial banks\\' long-term assets and liability spreads. The non-cutting of short-term asset interest rates may protect commercial banks\\' net interest margins. We believe that the reason why the reverse repurchase and MLF interest rates are not lowered is that the central bank prefers to protect the net interest margin of commercial banks. The short-end deposit interest rates of commercial banks were also lowered to varying degrees in December. If the short-end asset-end interest rates are not lowered in February, the expanded commercial short-end asset-liability spreads will be retained and reduce the operating pressure of commercial banks. The reduction of the 5-year LPR alone may be mainly to support real estate. We think the reason for cutting the 5-year LPR alone may be to \"entrust real estate\". Before the Spring Festival, first-tier cities relaxed real estate control policies to varying degrees, and residential sales in large and medium-sized cities improved slightly. The average daily sales volume in 30 large and medium-sized cities was averaged over 14 days and then briefly increased year-on-year before falling into the negative range again. The bond market responded positively, and the interest rate cut exceeded market expectations. The interest rate bond market, especially the short-end varieties, responded relatively positively, indicating that this interest rate cut also exceeded market expectations. The 10-year government bond yield fell by 2.10 BP to 2.41%, and the 6-month and 1-year government bond yields fell by 8.42 BP and 5.08 BP respectively. The probability of lowering the reverse repurchase rate and MLF interest rate in the short term is not high. Looking forward to the market outlook, we believe that the probability of seeing the central bank lowering the reverse repurchase and MLF interest rates again in the short term is not high. The lack of lowering in February shows an attitude. We believe that the logical quarterly range of protecting commercial banks\\' short-term net interest margins and easing their operating pressure is still tenable. The economic growth target for 2024 may not be high, and the economy will develop steadily. We believe that the focus of subsequent bond market transactions will be on the performance of economic data at the beginning of the year, the formulation of economic growth targets at the two sessions, and the introduction of policies to stabilize growth. We tend to believe that the economic performance in 2024 will be relatively stable, and promoting high-quality development means that the overall tone of our work is stable. To seek progress, we will not set excessively high economic growth targets. It is difficult for interest rate bond yields to break through further downward, and risks are accumulating. The 10-year treasury bond yield has now fallen to around 2.4%. To break through further, additional benefits will be needed. This may come from three directions: the economic data at the beginning of the year released in March was significantly lower than market expectations, and the target set by the two sessions was lower than The market expects to quickly follow up on the reduction of short-term asset interest rates or start a new round of deposit reductions. We believe that the probability of this happening is not high. The current equity market is rising and investor risk appetite has increased. When the above three directions perform in opposite directions, we believe that the bond market may begin to adjust. Risk warning: Policies to stabilize growth were introduced that exceeded expectations; economic data got off to a good start and performed better than expected; the goals set by the two sessions exceeded expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('9fe98c5e-31b0-5a1b-bf2c-da9d8d5097cc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.1711719073355198, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '9PJCOKOQFF649FDIPG0EMRF0SNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '9PJCOKOQFF649FDIPG0EMRF0SNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('09598b13-f470-5da4-a48b-91d93a7cbfa0'), 'title': 'Comments on the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting: Interest rate cuts are hawkish, while balance sheet reduction is dovish.', 'author': 'Cai Rui, Li Shaojin', 'orgName': '交银国际证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80101832', 'orgSName': '交银国际证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvnZLAkfMWcRq6iXOpaqG19w=', 'researcher': '蔡瑞,李少金', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000442439', '11000445033'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvnZLAkfMWcRq6iXOpaqG19w=', 'site': 'BOCOM International Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '交银国际证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623731582_1.pdf?1709042424000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623731582_1.pdf?1709042424000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting: Interest rate cuts are hawkish, while balance sheet reduction is dovish.', 'originalAuthor': '蔡瑞,李少金', 'originalContent': '美联储1月会议纪要再次强调了其审慎立场，即降息需审慎，不宜过早。美联储在本次会议纪要中也再次强调了通胀上行的风险，包括总需求强劲、核心商品价格反弹、地缘政治因素对供应链造成的压力，以及工资增速强劲等因素。我们在市场降息最乐观之时，对美国经济、就业以及通胀判断上均予以详尽分析和风险提示，强调我们降息审慎的立场，而今美联储降息立场、美国通胀走势均符合我们此前的判断（如：《降息判断仍需审慎—美联储12月会议纪要点评》）。同时，美联储也强调了当前金融系统流动性较为充足，银行业风险已基本消除，因而停止缩表的迫切性不足。但美联储仍计划于3月会议讨论缩表节奏，或给出放缓缩表的信号，以避免剩余流动性耗尽。与此同时，此前乐观的降息预期已大幅修正，当前市场预期降息的时点已由此前的3月后移至6月，全年降息的次数也由5-6次降至3-4次。降息偏“鹰”：不宜过早，通胀上行风险不容忽视美联储对于降息仍较为审慎，总体认为降息不宜太早。1月会议纪要指出多数（“most”）官员强调了过早降息的风险，而仅有一些（“acoupleof”）官员提示持续维持高利率的风险，反映了美联储当前整体基调仍是继续观察数据，不宜过早降息，亦符合我们一直以来对降息审慎的判断。（ … Mostparticipants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy ... Acouple of participants, however, pointed to downside risks to the economyassociated with maintaining an overly restrictive stance for too long…）。通胀仍有反复，上行风险不容忽视。美联储在会议纪要中指出当前强劲的需求是通胀上行的一个重要的风险源，此外，近期金融条件的放缓可能加剧通胀上行的风险，其他因素如地缘政治对供应链造成的扰动、核心商品价格反弹以及工资增长强劲均给通胀造成了上行风险，因而仍需要维持高利率，不宜过早降息。（ …participants noted that momentum in aggregate demand may bestronger than currently assessed…the risk that financial conditions were or couldbecome less restrictive than appropriate… some other sources of upside risks toinflation, including possible disruptions to supply chains from geopoliticaldevelopments, a potential rebound in core goods prices as the effects of supply-sideimprovements dissipate, or the possibility that wage growth remains elevated...）缩表偏“鸽”：仍有缓冲，但可能即将释放转向信号金融系统稳健，且流动性仍较为充足。 美联储在会议纪要补充到1月FOMC 声明中删去了美国银行体系韧性的措辞，因其判断银行业的压力已然消退，同时金融系统流动性仍相对充足。因此，即使在隔夜逆回购规模快速下降的情况下，美联储仍可不急于停止缩表。（ … the stresses thatemerged at some banks early last year have subside…Participants judged thatliquidity in the financial system remained more than ample and discussed theimportance of considering liquidity conditions as the Federal Reserve’s balancesheet continues to normalize…）。', 'content': 'The minutes of the Federal Reserve\\'s January meeting once again emphasized its prudent stance, that is, cutting interest rates needs to be done cautiously and not too early. In the minutes of this meeting, the Federal Reserve also once again emphasized the risks of rising inflation, including factors such as strong aggregate demand, rebounding core commodity prices, pressure on supply chains caused by geopolitical factors, and strong wage growth. When the market was most optimistic about interest rate cuts, we provided detailed analysis and risk warnings on the U.S. economy, employment, and inflation judgments, emphasizing our prudent stance on interest rate cuts. The Fed\\'s interest rate cut stance and U.S. inflation trends are now in line with our previous judgments (such as: \"Judgment of interest rate cuts still needs to be cautious - Comments on the minutes of the Federal Reserve\\'s December meeting\"). At the same time, the Federal Reserve also emphasized that the current liquidity in the financial system is relatively sufficient and banking risks have been basically eliminated, so there is insufficient urgency to stop shrinking the balance sheet. However, the Fed still plans to discuss the pace of balance sheet reduction at its March meeting, and may give a signal to slow down the balance sheet reduction to avoid exhaustion of remaining liquidity. At the same time, the previously optimistic interest rate cut expectations have been significantly revised. The current market expectation for interest rate cuts has been moved from March to June, and the number of interest rate cuts throughout the year has also been reduced from 5-6 to 3-4. The interest rate cut is biased towards the \"Eagle\" side: it should not be too early, and the risk of rising inflation cannot be ignored. The Federal Reserve is still more cautious about cutting interest rates. Generally speaking, it is believed that it should not be too early to cut interest rates. The minutes of the January meeting pointed out that most (\"most\") officials emphasized the risk of cutting interest rates prematurely, while only a few (\"acoupleof\") officials highlighted the risk of continuing to maintain high interest rates, reflecting that the current overall tone of the Fed is still to continue to monitor data. It is not advisable to cut interest rates prematurely, which is also in line with our long-term prudent judgment on interest rate cuts. (… Most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy… A couple of participants, however, pointed to downside risks to the economy associated with maintaining an overly restrictive stance for too long…). Inflation continues to recur, and upward risks cannot be ignored. The Fed pointed out in the minutes of the meeting that the current strong demand is an important source of risk for rising inflation. In addition, the recent slowdown in financial conditions may exacerbate the risk of rising inflation. Other factors such as geopolitical disruptions to the supply chain and core commodity prices The rebound and strong wage growth have created upward risks for inflation, so interest rates still need to be maintained high and it is not advisable to cut interest rates prematurely. (…participants noted that momentum in aggregate demand may be stronger than currently assessed…the risk that financial conditions were or could become less restrictive than appropriate… some other sources of upside risks toinflation, including possible disruptions to supply chains from geopoliticaldevelopments, a potential rebound in core goods prices as the effects of supply-sideimprovements dissipate, or the possibility that wage growth remains elevated...) The balance sheet reduction is \"dovish\": there is still a buffer, but a turning signal may be about to be released. The financial system is stable and liquidity is still relatively sufficient. . The Federal Reserve deleted the wording on the resilience of the U.S. banking system in the January FOMC statement added to the meeting minutes because it judged that the pressure on the banking industry had subsided and the liquidity of the financial system was still relatively sufficient. Therefore, even if the scale of overnight reverse repurchase is declining rapidly, the Fed may not be in a hurry to stop shrinking its balance sheet. (…the stresses that emerged at some banks early last year have subside…Participants judged that liquidity in the financial system remained more than ample and discussed the importance of considering liquidity conditions as the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet continues to normalize…).', 'authorid': UUID('2427af0c-0a21-5003-abde-02bb4ca518e3'), 'sentimentScore': 0.2857280671596527, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '265I3SBVNH1OD9HL2021LD4B9NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:07 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '265I3SBVNH1OD9HL2021LD4B9NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "The read operation timed out\n", - "{'id': UUID('b7f2dcae-888f-5e9f-9abd-80f72e5bf086'), 'title': 'Real estate situation review and outlook for 2024', 'author': 'Mao Lei, Wang Xiao', 'orgName': '国泰期货', 'orgCode': '80101065', 'orgSName': '国泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6Zrtvt67Q12Ippl36c15OCN+0s4=', 'researcher': '毛磊,王笑', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000218765', '11000259151'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6Zrtvt67Q12Ippl36c15OCN+0s4=', 'site': 'Cathay Futures', 'originalSite': '国泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623731027_1.pdf?1709049165000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623731027_1.pdf?1709049165000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Real estate situation review and outlook for 2024', 'originalAuthor': '毛磊,王笑', 'originalContent': '报告导读：摘要：本文回顾了近两年地产各分项数据所处的历史位置，并结合2024年以来的托底政策，通过高频销售数据跟踪地产趋势。通过观察本轮地产下行的长周期人口因素，以及房企融资端的短期困境，目前，虽然一系列针对房企融资与稳需求的政策持续落地，但未来政策或仍有优化宽松空间。最后，我们对2024年主要地产数据增速做了具体预测，同时结合地产链条内部领先、滞后的勾稽关系对新开工与竣工趋势做了方向性预测。1、从地产端数据来看，近两年地产的深度下行带来多个数据创下多年极值。2023年新开工面积约6.9亿平方米，创下近十年以来新低，仅为2019年巅峰年份的四成。2023年，商品房销售金额跌破12万亿元，回落到2016年的水准；商品房销售面积创近十年以来新低。但全年竣工增速创下十九年来新高。2、虽然LPR超预期调降，春节前一线城市进一步放松限购；但是，上世纪80年代末中国婴儿潮见顶，随后的十余年，中国每年新生人口从2500万人跌至1500万人，当前这部分人群进入买房适龄阶段，从长周期角度压制地产需求。因此过去周期性的优化放松政策，在长期趋势性因素的扰动下，为了改善行业现状，降低地产对金融风险的传导，政策力度或仍有进一步优化空间。3、每年年初由于春节因素，宏观数据偏清淡，对跟踪地产趋势带来难度。我们从高频地产销售数据来看，开年以来，新房销售仍然偏弱，二手房销售出现回升，地产市场更多体现机构性改善。4、我们预测2024年地产投资增速为-6.5%(2023年-9.6%)，新开工面积同比增长-7%(2023年-20.4%)，施工面积同比增长-13.2%(2023年-7.2%)，竣工面积同比增长5.3%(2023年17%)，商品房销售增速同比增2.8%(2023年-8.5%)，销售金额同比增长6.8%(2023年-6.5%)。后期关注点：1、政策力度。2、2024年1-2月地产链条数据。基于我们预测2024年地产数据的逻辑，今年第一份数据将确定全年环比基数，很大程度影响了后续数据的精确度。', 'content': 'Report introduction: Abstract: This article reviews the historical position of various real estate sub-data in the past two years, combined with the support policy since 2024, and tracks real estate trends through high-frequency sales data. By observing the long-term demographic factors of this round of real estate downturn and the short-term difficulties on the financing side of real estate companies, although a series of policies aimed at financing and stabilizing demand for real estate companies continue to be implemented, there may still be room for optimization and easing of policies in the future. Finally, we made specific predictions on the growth rate of major real estate data in 2024. At the same time, we made directional predictions on the trend of new construction starts and completions based on the relationship between leading and lagging within the real estate chain. 1. From the perspective of real estate data, the deep downturn in real estate in the past two years has brought multiple data to hit multi-year extreme values. The newly started construction area in 2023 will be approximately 690 million square meters, setting a new low in the past decade and only 40% of the peak year in 2019. In 2023, the sales amount of commercial housing will fall below 12 trillion yuan, falling back to the level of 2016; the sales area of \\u200b\\u200bcommercial housing will hit a new low in the past ten years. However, the annual completion growth rate hit a 19-year high. 2. Although the LPR was lowered beyond expectations and first-tier cities further relaxed purchase restrictions before the Spring Festival; however, China’s baby boom peaked in the late 1980s. In the following ten years, China’s annual newborn population dropped from 25 million to 15 million. Currently, this group of people has entered the age-appropriate stage of buying a house, suppressing real estate demand from a long-term perspective. Therefore, despite the cyclical optimization and relaxation of policies in the past, under the disturbance of long-term trend factors, in order to improve the current situation of the industry and reduce the transmission of financial risks from real estate, there may still be room for further optimization of policy intensity. 3. Due to the Spring Festival at the beginning of each year, macro data is relatively light, which makes it difficult to track real estate trends. From the perspective of high-frequency real estate sales data, since the beginning of the year, new home sales have remained weak, second-hand home sales have rebounded, and the real estate market has shown more institutional improvements. 4. We predict that the real estate investment growth rate in 2024 will be -6.5% (-9.6% in 2023), the newly started construction area will increase by -7% year-on-year (-20.4% in 2023), and the construction area will increase by -13.2% year-on-year (-7.2% in 2023) %), the completed area increased by 5.3% year-on-year (17% in 2023), the sales growth rate of commercial housing increased by 2.8% year-on-year (-8.5% in 2023), and the sales amount increased by 6.8% year-on-year (-6.5% in 2023). Later focus: 1. Policy intensity. 2. Real estate chain data from January to February 2024. Based on our logic for predicting real estate data in 2024, the first data this year will determine the full-year month-on-month base, which will greatly affect the accuracy of subsequent data.', 'authorid': UUID('51f5be69-13d4-5cb3-b380-3e320a6f4d81'), 'sentimentScore': 0.0392568651586771, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '4OHHKD68VI30G9K77IMRLV9A8FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '4OHHKD68VI30G9K77IMRLV9A8FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8571a6a5-c43e-54de-913a-b635b472ce0d'), 'title': 'Major Assets Weekly Report No. 19: The “differentiation” behind the new highs in overseas markets?', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Jia Luxi, Li Xinyue', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6Zrtvu2zJg1altjotvD/m/Wxpac=', 'researcher': '赵伟,贾璐熙,李欣越', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000456132', '11000446746'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6Zrtvu2zJg1altjotvD/m/Wxpac=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623728607_1.pdf?1709034010000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623728607_1.pdf?1709034010000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Major Assets Weekly Report No. 19: The “differentiation” behind the new highs in overseas markets?', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,贾璐熙,李欣越', 'originalContent': '2月23日，美、日、欧等市场的主要宽基指数均创历史新高，国内投资者的关注度也显著提升。海外市场新高背后的“动能”、市场间驱动因素的“分化”、后续可能的“演绎”？本文分析，可供参考。热点思考：海外市场新高背后的“分化”？一问：近期，海外市场的焦点？美欧日股指均创历史新高、一度激起国内抢购热潮2月23日，美、日、欧等市场主要宽基指数均创历史新高。本轮海外市场的集体上涨始于2023年10月30日，截至2月23日，标普500、道指分别上涨23.6%、20.7%，均创历史新高；日经225指数大涨26.2%，突破了39000点、刷新了1989年12月的历史新高；欧洲市场，德国DAX、法国CAC40分别上涨18.6%、17.2%，不断刷新历史新高。海外市场大涨，一度带动了国内对QDIIETF的抢购热潮。1月底，在国内市场承压、海外不断上行背景下，投资者对海外ETF的抢购热情一度被点燃。伴随换手率快速攀升，标普500ETF加权平均溢价率一度触及6%、纳指ETF平均溢价率也达3%；日经ETF溢价率更是突破8%。近期随着国内市场情绪修复，海外ETF溢价率有所回落、但仍处高位。二问：海外新高的“背后”？流动性缓和叠加盈利预期改善，欧股基本面支撑相对更强流动性环境缓和是海外普涨的初期推升；随后，海外经济预期修复与亮眼财报数据接过了“接力棒”。第一阶段，2023年10月30日-12月31日，10Y美债、德债、日债收益率分别下行109、87、27bp，从分母端对股指提供支撑。第二阶段，1月1日至今，市场对无风险利率反弹“钝感力”十足，经济预期修复与财报数据继续为市场上行提供动能。集体新高的背后，海外市场间也存在一定分化：第一，美、日的市场上行多由估值驱动，而欧洲市场基本面驱动的特征更为明显。第二，AI行情是日股、美股的重要驱动，而欧股的大涨则更多是制造业相关领域的贡献。其中，美股Magnificent7贡献了标普500指数超三成的涨幅，东京电子等8支半导体相关股更是贡献了日经225涨幅的一半。三问：未来可能的“分化”？美股上行动能或将减弱，日欧市场行情或有望延续当下，美股估值已至相对高位，短期经济韧性与通胀粘性或驱动美债收益率继续攀高，高估值板块的波动或将加剧。1月以来，库存的回补支撑了制造业的韧性；而能源价格的反弹与薪资通胀的粘性，或导致通胀下行放缓。经济韧性、通胀粘性下，10年期美债收益率短期或维持高位震荡，以信息技术、工业等为代表高估值板块的波动或将加剧。区别于美股，日欧股市上行的基础更为“坚实”，行情有望得以延续。日股方面，AI“淘金热”中“金”的估值或有高估，但半导体产业“卖铲人”受益更为牢靠；叠加经济修复、外资流入、政策支持，日股或仍有一定支撑。欧股方面，前期上涨中欧股有盈利端支撑、当前估值也仍处历史中枢附近，降息带动下的利率回落有望成为欧股上行的新动能。周度回顾：美、欧、日股指均创历史新高，贵金属价格全面反弹（2024/02/16-2024/02/23）股票市场：发达国家股指多数上涨，新兴市场股指全线上涨。发达国家股指，法国CAC40上涨2.6%，德国DAX指数上涨1.8%；新兴市场股指，上证指数上涨4.8%，伊斯坦布尔证交所全国30指数上涨1.3%。债券市场：发达市场国债收益率表现分化。10年期国债收益率方面，美国下行4bp至4.2%，德国上行8bp至2.4%，法国下行2.9bp至2.8%，英国下行1.5bp至4.1%，意大利下行7.7bp至3.8%，日本下行0.5bp至0.7%。外汇市场：美元指数小幅下行。欧元兑美元升值0.4%，英镑兑美元升值0.5%，日元兑美元升值0.2%，美元兑人民币升值0.04%，欧元兑人民币升值1.05%；主要新兴市场兑美元走势分化，土耳其里拉兑美元升值0.1%。商品市场：贵金属全线上涨，农产品多数上涨，有色多数上涨，黑色多数下跌，原油全线下跌。通胀预期从前值的2.33%降至2.30%。COMEX黄金升至2037.2美元/盎司。10Y美债实际收益率从前值的1.97%降至1.96%。风险提示俄乌冲突再起波澜；大宗商品价格反弹；工资增速放缓不达预期', 'content': 'On February 23, the major broad-based indexes in the US, Japan, Europe and other markets all hit record highs, and domestic investors\\' attention also increased significantly. The \"momentum\" behind the new highs in overseas markets, the \"differentiation\" of driving factors among markets, and the possible \"deduction\" in the future? The analysis in this article is for reference. Hot thoughts: The “differentiation” behind the new highs in overseas markets? Question 1: What is the focus of overseas markets in the near future? The U.S., European, and Japanese stock indexes all hit record highs, once triggering a domestic rush to buy. On February 23, major broad-based indexes in the U.S., Japan, Europe and other markets all hit record highs. This round of collective rise in overseas markets began on October 30, 2023. As of February 23, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 23.6% and 20.7% respectively, both reaching record highs; the Nikkei 225 Index rose by 26.2%. It exceeded 39,000 points, setting a new historical high in December 1989; in the European market, the German DAX and the French CAC40 rose by 18.6% and 17.2% respectively, constantly setting new historical highs. The surge in overseas markets once triggered a rush to buy QDIIETF in China. At the end of January, with the domestic market under pressure and overseas markets continuing to rise, investors\\' enthusiasm for overseas ETFs was once ignited. With the rapid increase in turnover rate, the weighted average premium rate of S&P 500 ETF once touched 6%, the average premium rate of Nasdaq ETF also reached 3%; the premium rate of Nikkei ETF exceeded 8%. Recently, as the domestic market sentiment has recovered, the overseas ETF premium rate has fallen back, but is still at a high level. Second question: What’s behind the new overseas highs? Easing liquidity coupled with improved profit expectations, and relatively stronger support from European stock fundamentals. The easing of the liquidity environment was the initial push for the general overseas rally; subsequently, the restoration of overseas economic expectations and eye-catching financial data took over the \"baton\". In the first stage, from October 30 to December 31, 2023, the yields of 10Y U.S. bonds, German bonds, and Japanese bonds fell by 109, 87, and 27bp respectively, providing support to the stock index from the denominator side. In the second stage, from January 1 to the present, the market is fully \"insensitive\" to the rebound in risk-free interest rates, and the recovery of economic expectations and financial report data continue to provide upward momentum for the market. Behind the collective new highs, there are also certain differences between overseas markets: First, the market rise in the United States and Japan is mostly driven by valuations, while the fundamentals of the European market are more obvious. Second, the AI \\u200b\\u200bmarket is an important driver of Japanese and US stocks, while the surge in European stocks is more attributable to manufacturing-related fields. Among them, the US stock Magnificent7 contributed more than 30% of the increase in the S&P 500 Index, and eight semiconductor-related stocks including Tokyo Electronics contributed half of the increase in the Nikkei 225. Third question: Possible \"differentiation\" in the future? The upward momentum of U.S. stocks may weaken, and the market conditions in Japan and Europe may be expected to continue. U.S. stock valuations have reached relatively high levels, short-term economic resilience and inflation stickiness may drive U.S. bond yields to continue to rise, and volatility in high-valuation sectors may intensify. Since January, the replenishment of inventories has supported the resilience of the manufacturing industry; while the rebound in energy prices and the stickiness of wage inflation may lead to a slowdown in the downward trend of inflation. Given the resilience of the economy and the stickiness of inflation, the 10-year U.S. bond yield may remain high and volatile in the short term, and fluctuations in highly valued sectors represented by information technology and industry may intensify. Different from U.S. stocks, the foundation for the upward trend of Japanese and European stock markets is more \"solid\", and the market is expected to continue. In terms of Japanese stocks, the valuation of \"gold\" in the AI \\u200b\\u200b\"gold rush\" may be overvalued, but the \"shovel sellers\" in the semiconductor industry will benefit more firmly; combined with economic recovery, foreign investment inflows, and policy support, Japanese stocks may still have a certain support. In terms of European stocks, the early gains in European stocks were supported by profitability, and current valuations are still near the historical center. The fall in interest rates driven by interest rate cuts is expected to become a new driving force for the upward trend of European stocks. Weekly review: U.S., European, and Japanese stock indexes all hit record highs, and precious metal prices rebounded across the board (2024/02/16-2024/02/23) Stock market: Most stock indexes in developed countries rose, and emerging market stock indexes rose across the board. Developed country stock indexes, France\\'s CAC40 rose 2.6%, Germany\\'s DAX index rose 1.8%; emerging market stock indexes, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.8%, Istanbul Stock Exchange National 30 Index rose 1.3%. Bond market: Treasury bond yields in developed markets have varied. In terms of 10-year Treasury bond yields, the United States fell 4bp to 4.2%, Germany rose 8bp to 2.4%, France fell 2.9bp to 2.8%, the United Kingdom fell 1.5bp to 4.1%, Italy fell 7.7bp to 3.8%, and Japan fell 0.5bp. to 0.7%. Foreign exchange market: The U.S. dollar index fell slightly. The euro appreciated against the U.S. dollar by 0.4%, the pound against the U.S. dollar appreciated by 0.5%, the Japanese yen appreciated against the U.S. dollar by 0.2%, the U.S. dollar appreciated against the RMB by 0.04%, and the euro appreciated against the RMB by 1.05%. Major emerging markets showed mixed trends against the U.S. dollar, with the Turkish lira appreciating by 0.1 against the U.S. dollar. %. Commodity market: Precious metals rose across the board, most agricultural products rose, most non-ferrous metals rose, most black fell, and crude oil fell across the board. Inflation expectations fell to 2.30% from the previous value of 2.33%. COMEX gold rose to $2,037.2 per ounce. The actual yield on 10Y U.S. Treasury bonds fell to 1.96% from the previous value of 1.97%. Risks suggest that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is escalating again; commodity prices have rebounded; wage growth has slowed down less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('6120e22e-df37-5105-8a6c-dafce37f539a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.043937934562563896, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OVC94HH89E74ICJVKSIEFGAKH7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:19 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OVC94HH89E74ICJVKSIEFGAKH7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8ea72a56-a707-59ba-b112-b42f58ed701b'), 'title': 'Macroeconomics in January: Price and financial data improved, and the long-term LPR cut exceeded expectations', 'author': 'Xu Jingya', 'orgName': '南京证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000051', 'orgSName': '南京证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvvHaJEoqvA7Ph6n6az+Pu6o=', 'researcher': '徐静雅', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000411231'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvvHaJEoqvA7Ph6n6az+Pu6o=', 'site': 'Nanjing Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '南京证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623726768_1.pdf?1709030019000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623726768_1.pdf?1709030019000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomics in January: Price and financial data improved, and the long-term LPR cut exceeded expectations', 'originalAuthor': '徐静雅', 'originalContent': '摘要事件：2月8日，统计局公布1月物价数据。1月消费者物价指数-0.8%，生产者物价指数-2.5%。2月9日，央行公布1月金融数据：1月，社融增量6.5万亿，同比多增5061亿元；社融存量增9.5%，前值9.5%；M1同比增5.9%，前值1.3%；M2同比增8.7%，前值9.7%。2月20日LPR长端下调25个基点。物价最明显的持续贡献就是猪肉和油价，尤其是两者共振。目前来看，能繁母猪高位，猪肉供给端使得猪肉价格难以大幅持续上涨。油价来看，依总结出来的利率权益商品汇率价格同步或依次表现来看，油价目前仍在一轮周期的尾程，还在探底或者底部。CPI、PPI整体已经探出底部，基数支撑温和，物价数据可能温和上升。金融数据反映的1月融资需求还是相当不错的，结构上企业贷款仍逊色。M1对于资产价格的相关性仍需更多数据验证企业部门的预期和存款定期化的改善。LPR长期调降25个基点。一方面，是地产和地方融资平台新增贷款需求下降，降息事倍功半，不会主动去刺激。针对的是存量贷款的减负和实现延缓增量缩减的速度。地产不仅拖累了信贷，而且减少了居民企业资金投资的渠道，导致M1和M2持续背离，存款定期化。如果存款定期化仍未缓解、物价环比上涨还是超预期低，LPR还是会继续调降。货币政策重点不再追求增量，而是时间化解存量。风险提示：海内外流动性压力超预期、海内外经济下行超预期', 'content': 'Summary event: On February 8, the Bureau of Statistics released January price data. The consumer price index in January was -0.8%, and the producer price index was -2.5%. On February 9, the central bank announced financial data for January: In January, social financing increased by 6.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 506.1 billion yuan year-on-year; the stock of social financing increased by 9.5%, compared with the previous value of 9.5%; M1 increased by 5.9% year-on-year, compared with the previous value 1.3%; M2 increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the previous value was 9.7%. On February 20, the long-term LPR was lowered by 25 basis points. The most obvious sustained contribution to prices is pork and oil prices, especially the resonance between the two. At present, the high level of reproductive sows and the supply side of pork make it difficult for pork prices to rise significantly and sustainably. Looking at oil prices, based on the synchronized or sequential performance of interest rates, equity, commodity exchange rates and prices, oil prices are still at the end of a cycle and are still exploring or bottoming out. CPI and PPI have bottomed out as a whole, the base support is moderate, and price data may rise moderately. Financing demand reflected in financial data in January was still quite good, but corporate loans were still structurally inferior. The correlation of M1 to asset prices still requires more data to verify the expectations of the corporate sector and the improvement in deposit regularization. LPR is lowered by 25 basis points in the long term. On the one hand, the demand for new loans from real estate and local financing platforms has declined, and interest rate cuts will achieve half the result with half the effort, and they will not take the initiative to stimulate. The aim is to reduce the burden on existing loans and slow down the pace of incremental reduction. Real estate not only drags down credit, but also reduces the channels for resident enterprises to invest funds, leading to the continued divergence between M1 and M2 and the regularization of deposits. If the regularization of deposits has not eased and the month-on-month price rise is still lower than expected, the LPR will continue to be lowered. The focus of monetary policy is no longer the pursuit of increments, but time to resolve the stock. Risk warning: liquidity pressure at home and abroad exceeds expectations, and economic downturn at home and abroad exceeds expectations', 'authorid': UUID('05fe9377-bc17-5c58-9560-a3d3e84a81a4'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9245853964239359, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'NUVREDO34MUFO3RCAR5V6O6PJVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:22 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'NUVREDO34MUFO3RCAR5V6O6PJVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1b2eb691-d650-5556-a508-5ae66e348925'), 'title': 'China Macro: Interpretation of the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, supply and demand are expected to work together', 'author': 'Cai Rui, Li Shaojin', 'orgName': '交银国际证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80101832', 'orgSName': '交银国际证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6Zrtvj7KiKAf4uYpulomwWsYnUc=', 'researcher': '蔡瑞,李少金', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000442439', '11000445033'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6Zrtvj7KiKAf4uYpulomwWsYnUc=', 'site': 'BOCOM International Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '交银国际证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623726715_1.pdf?1709048446000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623726715_1.pdf?1709048446000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'China Macro: Interpretation of the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, supply and demand are expected to work together', 'originalAuthor': '蔡瑞,李少金', 'originalContent': '2024年2月23日，国家主席习近平主持召开中央财经委员会第四次会议，会议强调推动新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，有效降低全社会物流成本。关于会议精神，我们理解如下：本次会议强调了推动新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的重要性，以及有效降低全社会物流成本的必要性，旨在通过结构性改革来增加企业的竞争力，推动经济持续健康发展。同时，会议明确了进一步加强对经济结构调整的推进力度，促进国内消费、提高工业效率及优化物流体系，以提高有效需求，优化产能机构，激发经济增长的新动能，并通过技术更新和消费升级来推动经济向高质量发展转型。需求侧：大规模设备更新+消费品以旧换新政策，预计将有效促进投资和消费增长，提高有效需求。会议指出：一方面，要推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造，鼓励汽车、家电等传统消费品以旧换新；另一方面，通过大规模回收循环利用和加强“换新+回收”的物流体系，构建一个更加高效、环保的经济体系。同时，要求中央与地方政府的联动，以及对全链条各环节的统筹支持，将确保政策效果的最大化。这些措施有利于直接创造有效需求，并同时推动经济绿色的、可持续高质量发展。供给侧：推动先进产能比重持续提升、鼓励先进、淘汰落后，有利于推动产业升级，提高企业竞争力。会议提出政策的组合拳旨在提高先进产能比重，增加高质量耐用消费品在居民生活中的占比，从而显著提高国民经济循环的质量和水平。同时，政策实施将坚持市场主导与政府引导相结合，鼓励技术进步与淘汰落后产能，以及通过标准引领实现产业的有序提升。这些措施反映了对当前经济形势的全面应对策略，并通过优化产业结构来推动经济高质量发展。供给侧：降低物流成本，打造高效、有序竞争的物流市场，有利于提高经济效率，降低企业成本。会议提出降低全社会物流成本，旨在通过结构调整和改革促进，有效减少运输、仓储和管理成本，优化运输结构，从而形成高效、有序竞争的物流市场。同时，鼓励新型物流模式的发展，如结合平台经济、低空经济、无人驾驶等，促进物流枢纽的统筹规划和基础设施建设，发展临空、临港经济，以实现降本增效。中央财经委员会第四次会议进一步释放了积极的信号，在供需两端均做出了重要指示。1）供给端：优化产能结构，提高先进产能比重，淘汰低效、落后产能，以应对产能过剩；同时，优化运输结构、降低社会物流成本，帮助企业实现降本增效。2）需求端：实行大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，将有力促进投资和消费，提高有效需求。供需两端齐发力，结合此前央行调降5年期LPR利率，推动实际借贷成本下降，均利好企业改善利润，实现经济健康平稳发展。', 'content': 'On February 23, 2024, President Xi Jinping presided over the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Committee. The meeting emphasized the promotion of a new round of large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones to effectively reduce the logistics costs of the whole society. Regarding the spirit of the meeting, we understand the following: This meeting emphasized the importance of promoting a new round of large-scale equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods, as well as the need to effectively reduce the logistics costs of the whole society, aiming to increase the competition of enterprises through structural reforms efforts to promote sustained and healthy economic development. At the same time, the meeting made it clear to further strengthen the promotion of economic structural adjustment, promote domestic consumption, improve industrial efficiency and optimize the logistics system to increase effective demand, optimize production capacity structures, stimulate new momentum for economic growth, and through technological updates and consumption upgrades to promote the transformation of the economy to high-quality development. Demand side: Large-scale equipment updates + consumer goods trade-in policy are expected to effectively promote investment and consumption growth and increase effective demand. The meeting pointed out: On the one hand, it is necessary to promote the updating and technological transformation of various production equipment and service equipment, and encourage the replacement of old consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances with new ones; on the other hand, through large-scale recycling and strengthening of the \"replacement + recycling\" logistics system , to build a more efficient and environmentally friendly economic system. At the same time, it requires linkage between the central and local governments and coordinated support for all links in the entire chain to ensure maximum policy effects. These measures are conducive to directly creating effective demand and at the same time promoting green, sustainable and high-quality economic development. Supply side: Promote the continuous increase in the proportion of advanced production capacity, encourage the advanced, and eliminate the backward, which is conducive to promoting industrial upgrading and improving corporate competitiveness. The combination of policies proposed at the meeting aims to increase the proportion of advanced production capacity and increase the proportion of high-quality durable consumer goods in residents\\' lives, thereby significantly improving the quality and level of the national economic cycle. At the same time, policy implementation will adhere to the combination of market leadership and government guidance, encourage technological progress and eliminate backward production capacity, and achieve orderly upgrading of the industry through standard guidance. These measures reflect a comprehensive response strategy to the current economic situation and promote high-quality economic development by optimizing the industrial structure. Supply side: Reduce logistics costs and create an efficient and orderly competitive logistics market, which will help improve economic efficiency and reduce corporate costs. The meeting proposed reducing logistics costs for the whole society, aiming to effectively reduce transportation, warehousing and management costs and optimize the transportation structure through structural adjustment and reform promotion, thereby forming an efficient and orderly competitive logistics market. At the same time, encourage the development of new logistics models, such as combining platform economy, low-altitude economy, unmanned driving, etc., promote the overall planning and infrastructure construction of logistics hubs, and develop the airport and port economy to achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement. The fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission further released positive signals and issued important instructions on both the supply and demand sides. 1) Supply side: Optimize the production capacity structure, increase the proportion of advanced production capacity, eliminate inefficient and backward production capacity to cope with excess production capacity; at the same time, optimize the transportation structure, reduce social logistics costs, and help enterprises achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement. 2) Demand side: Implementing large-scale equipment updates and replacing old consumer goods with new ones will effectively promote investment and consumption and increase effective demand. Both supply and demand are working together, and combined with the central bank\\'s previous reduction in the 5-year LPR interest rate, the actual borrowing costs have been reduced, which is beneficial to companies improving profits and achieving healthy and stable economic development.', 'authorid': UUID('2427af0c-0a21-5003-abde-02bb4ca518e3'), 'sentimentScore': 0.2203366057947278, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '4J1P1V911TDCUJJFCJ92UVETK7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:24 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '4J1P1V911TDCUJJFCJ92UVETK7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('70f0a619-6863-5423-a0a7-5d1ef1899dc7'), 'title': 'No. 70 of the series of \"Seeing the subtleties\": Looking at industrial transformation from the perspective of \"specialization, specialization and innovation\"', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Zhang Yunjie', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvkpbNJ+/TlBA2pMFNB9SyWI=', 'researcher': '赵伟,张云杰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000369443'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvkpbNJ+/TlBA2pMFNB9SyWI=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623726072_1.pdf?1709028515000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623726072_1.pdf?1709028515000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'No. 70 of the series of \"Seeing the subtleties\": Looking at industrial transformation from the perspective of \"specialization, specialization and innovation\"', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,张云杰', 'originalContent': '2024年，多地发力布局新质生产力，专精特新企业或是重点“阵地”。以点见面，政策信号如何、反映哪些产业脉络？一问：专精特新企业，成长路径有何变化？区域上向东部集中，行业上重点产业占比抬升2023年，前五批专精特新“小巨人”企业认定数量接近1.3万家，提前完成十四五规划培育1万家的发展目标。2019-2023年，专精特新企业进入加速培育阶段，认证企业数量持续增长、配套政策接连出台。期间，专精特新“小巨人”占规模以上中小工业企业比重明显上升，由2019年的不足0.1%显著提升至2022年的2%。分地区看，专精特新“小巨人”企业进一步向东部发达地区集中。受经济实力、产业基础等因素影响，前五批认证企业主要分布在东部、占比63.9%，其中广东、江苏、浙江分列前三甲。2023年第五批认证企业中，东部地区占比75%、较2022年的64.1%进一步提升。“小巨人”上市企业聚集在东部地区的特征更加显著、占比高达74.3%。分行业看，十大重点产业领域集中度不断抬升，近九成上市公司分布在制造业。伴随科学技术、信息软件企业数量的增多，2022年认证企业中，制造业企业占比降至59%、十大重点产业领域企业占比升至81.2%，分别较2019年下滑10.7、上升7个百分点。“小巨人”上市企业明显更多分布在制造业，占比高至九成。二问：政策扶持思路，有何转变？认定标准趋严，财税奖补、融资政策等支持力度加大2024年，各地将继续加大力度培育专精特新企业，但评审标准或进一步趋严。2022年最新标准中，“小巨人”企业认定标准更加细化，企业需更加注重数字、绿色化发展。2023年第五批企业通过率相应降至21.6%、较上年回落14.7个百分点。2024年多地计划加大力度支持专精特新企业，但在培育“数量”已达标背景下，企业“质量”或更受关注。财税政策方面，近年来财政奖补力度持续加大，专精特新企业可享受的税收优惠政策增多。十四五期间，中央财政累计安排100亿元以上奖补资金支持“小巨人”企业。2019-2022年，全国公共财政支持中小企业发展管理支出由1878亿元提升至2887亿元。2023年，专精特新研发费加计扣除比例升至100%、设备投资扣除所得税延期至2027年底。融资政策方面，专精特新企业是金融政策的重点支持对象，受到的融资约束或进一步放松。2020年以来，央行进一步加大对于中小微、民营企业的支持力度。2024年，金融机构小微贷款增速18.8%、显著高于各项贷款增速的10.6%。政策扶持下，专精特新、“小巨人”认证企业，更容易获得银行信贷，同时利率或更优惠、额外享受贴息等。三问：产业转型脉络，如何洞察？新质生产力引领数字、智能化趋势，软科技受关注度提升“专精特新”政策变化，反映我国顶层规划更加注重产业发展质量。“专精特新”政策支持力度加大、企业认定标准提升，与中央经济工作会议“重点产业链高质量发展、加强质量支撑”等定调相符。政策引导下，2024年代表性省份产业类重大项目占比升至65.7%、较上年提高2.5个百分点，细分领域上更多聚焦未来产业、新一代信息技术等。产业脉络上，“新质生产力”或引领产业体系加快重构，产业数字化、智能化趋势进一步确立。专精特新企业或作为培育和发展新质生产力的“主阵地”，近年来科技、信息服务“小巨人”企业占比显著提升，反映了政策对“软科技”关注度提升的重要变化。产业数字化、智能化趋势下，2023年信息技术投资增速13.8%、较过往明显提升。以“小巨人”企业为样本，设备制造行业质效突显，石化、钢铁等传统行业受技术创新赋能更加显著。政策重点扶持下，专精特新企业经营能力保持优势，“小巨人”上市企业营收增速持续高于规模以上工业企业、ROA水平高于A股整体。分行业看，汽车等设备制造行业ROA位居前列；石化、钢铁等行业ROA明显高于A股同行业上市公司。风险提示经济复苏不及预期，政策落地效果不及预期。', 'content': 'In 2024, many places will make efforts to deploy new productive forces, and specialize in special new enterprises or key \"positions\". Looking at the points, what are the policy signals and what industrial context does it reflect? Question: How will the growth path of specialized new enterprises change? The region is concentrated towards the east, and the proportion of key industries in the industry has increased. In 2023, the number of the first five batches of specialized and new \"little giant\" enterprises will be close to 13,000, fulfilling the development goal of cultivating 10,000 enterprises in the 14th Five-Year Plan ahead of schedule. From 2019 to 2023, specialized and special new enterprises will enter the accelerated cultivation stage, the number of certified enterprises will continue to grow, and supporting policies will be introduced one after another. During this period, the proportion of specialized, specialized and new \"little giants\" in small and medium-sized industrial enterprises above designated size has increased significantly, from less than 0.1% in 2019 to 2% in 2022. Looking at different regions, the \"little giant\" enterprises that specialize in new technologies are further concentrated in the developed eastern regions. Affected by factors such as economic strength and industrial foundation, the first five batches of certified companies are mainly distributed in the east, accounting for 63.9%, of which Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang rank among the top three. Among the fifth batch of certified companies in 2023, the eastern region accounts for 75%, a further increase from 64.1% in 2022. The \"little giant\" listed companies are more prominent in the eastern region, accounting for 74.3%. In terms of industries, the concentration of the ten key industrial fields continues to increase, with nearly 90% of listed companies located in the manufacturing industry. With the increase in the number of science and technology and information software companies, among certified companies in 2022, the proportion of manufacturing companies will drop to 59%, and the proportion of companies in the top ten key industrial fields will rise to 81.2%, a decrease of 10.7 and an increase of 7 compared with 2019 respectively. percentage point. \"Little Giant\" listed companies are obviously more distributed in the manufacturing industry, accounting for as high as 90%. Second question: What changes have occurred in the policy support ideas? Recognition standards are becoming stricter, and financial and tax incentives, financing policies and other support will be increased. In 2024, various regions will continue to increase their efforts to cultivate specialized and special new enterprises, but the evaluation standards may be further tightened. In the latest standards in 2022, the criteria for identifying \"little giant\" companies are more detailed, and companies need to pay more attention to digital and green development. The passing rate of the fifth batch of companies in 2023 accordingly dropped to 21.6%, a drop of 14.7 percentage points from the previous year. In 2024, many places plan to increase their efforts to support specialized and new enterprises, but in the context of cultivating \"quantity\" that has reached the standard, the \"quality\" of enterprises will receive more attention. In terms of fiscal and taxation policies, fiscal incentives and subsidies have continued to increase in recent years, and more specialized and special new enterprises can enjoy more preferential tax policies. During the 14th Five-Year Plan, the central government has arranged a total of more than 10 billion yuan in incentives and subsidies to support \"little giant\" enterprises. From 2019 to 2022, national public finance expenditures to support the development and management of small and medium-sized enterprises increased from 187.8 billion yuan to 288.7 billion yuan. In 2023, the super deduction ratio for specialized and special new research and development expenses will increase to 100%, and the income tax deduction for equipment investment will be postponed to the end of 2027. In terms of financing policies, specialized and new enterprises are the key targets of financial policy support, and the financing constraints they are subject to may be further relaxed. Since 2020, the central bank has further increased its support for small, medium, micro, and private enterprises. In 2024, the growth rate of small and micro loans from financial institutions will be 18.8%, which is significantly higher than the 10.6% growth rate of various loans. With policy support, enterprises that specialize in new technologies and are certified as \"Little Giants\" can more easily obtain bank credit, and at the same time, the interest rates will be more favorable and they will enjoy additional discounts. Three questions: How to gain insight into the context of industrial transformation? New productivity leads the trend of digitalization and intelligence, and soft technology has attracted more attention. The changes in the \"specialized, special and innovative\" policy reflect that my country\\'s top-level planning pays more attention to the quality of industrial development. The \"Specialized, Specialized, Special and New\" policy support has been strengthened and the enterprise identification standards have been improved, which is consistent with the central economic work conference\\'s \"high-quality development of key industrial chains and strengthening quality support\". Under the guidance of policies, the proportion of major industrial projects in representative provinces will rise to 65.7% in 2024, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the previous year. The segmented fields will focus more on future industries, new generation information technology, etc. In terms of industrial context, \"new productivity\" may lead to accelerated restructuring of the industrial system, and the trend of industrial digitalization and intelligence will be further established. Specialized and special new enterprises may serve as the \"main front\" for cultivating and developing new productive forces. In recent years, the proportion of \"little giant\" enterprises in science and technology and information services has increased significantly, reflecting the important changes in the policy\\'s increased attention to \"soft technology\" . Under the trend of industrial digitalization and intelligence, information technology investment will grow by 13.8% in 2023, significantly higher than in the past. Taking \"little giant\" companies as examples, the quality and efficiency of the equipment manufacturing industry are outstanding, and traditional industries such as petrochemicals and steel are more significantly empowered by technological innovation. With the support of key policies, the operating capabilities of specialized and new enterprises have maintained their advantages. The revenue growth rate of \"little giant\" listed companies continues to be higher than that of industrial enterprises above designated size, and the ROA level is higher than that of A-shares as a whole. In terms of industries, the ROA of automobile and other equipment manufacturing industries ranks among the top; the ROA of petrochemical, steel and other industries is significantly higher than that of A-share listed companies in the same industry. Risks suggest that the economic recovery is not as good as expected and the effect of policy implementation is not as good as expected.', 'authorid': UUID('ff469869-b6c6-5748-a897-a67668ded608'), 'sentimentScore': 0.24976484943181276, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3IJIN0EFGO9E8NQNSJUN6VCKNNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:27 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3IJIN0EFGO9E8NQNSJUN6VCKNNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5b66d07a-2b64-51f6-a65f-bde116bce593'), 'title': 'Comments on the meeting of the Central Finance Commission: Promote investment and consumption through \"equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods\"', 'author': 'Chen Li', 'orgName': '川财证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000204', 'orgSName': '川财证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6Zrtvqj1jTaKskIkqcu4Km354n0=', 'researcher': '陈雳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000174919'], 'count': 13, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6Zrtvqj1jTaKskIkqcu4Km354n0=', 'site': 'Chuancai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '川财证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623723525_1.pdf?1709029451000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623723525_1.pdf?1709029451000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on the meeting of the Central Finance Commission: Promote investment and consumption through \"equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods\"', 'originalAuthor': '陈雳', 'originalContent': '事件习近平2月23日下午主持召开中央财经委员会第四次会议，研究大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新问题，研究有效降低全社会物流成本问题。习近平在会上发表重要讲话强调，加快产品更新换代是推动高质量发展的重要举措，要鼓励引导新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新。物流是实体经济的“筋络”，联接生产和消费、内贸和外贸，必须有效降低全社会物流成本，增强产业核心竞争力，提高经济运行效率。（中国政府网）点评大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，将有力促进投资和消费。2023年12月中央经济工作会议提出，要以提高技术、能耗、排放等标准为牵引，推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新。此次中财委会议延续中央经济工作会议的基调，并对“大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新”进行了更加详细的部署。投资角度看，对大规模设备更新的提倡，将鼓励企业加速折旧老设备、激发企业对新设备的需求，从而带动设备生产制造业的转型升级。短期来看，以新设备替换旧设备，或将对企业利润造成压力；长远来看，设备更新将提高企业运行效率、提振企业投资，对内需的扩大、基本面的复苏具有积极影响。消费角度看，消费品以旧换新将提振耐用消费品需求。2023年全年消费对经济增长的贡献率升至82.5%，显著高于2022年的32.8%和疫情前2017-2019平均的59.5%，消费有望成为拉动我国经济增长的主要引擎。消费结构层面，鉴于我国基本面仍在恢复向好的过程中，依然面临有效需求不足、社会预期不稳等挑战，耐用消费品需求有待进一步扩大。消费品以旧换新将促进消费市场的下沉，提振耐用品的消费，从而拉动相关领域的工业需求。后市方面，家电、新能源车下乡补贴政策可期。与平台经济、低空经济、无人驾驶等结合的物流新模式有望加速形成。方向上看，物流是连接生产和消费的桥梁，降低物流成本，将有助于更多资金流入实体经济领域。方式上看，一是优化运输结构，强化“公转铁”、“公转水”，铁路、水路建设有望成为基建的重要投向；二是发展与平台经济、低空经济、无人驾驶等结合的物流新模式，指明了物流业未来转型升级的方向。风险提示：宏观经济不及预期，出现严重信用事件，政策变化不及预期。', 'content': 'Events Xi Jinping chaired the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on the afternoon of February 23 to study the issue of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, and to study the issue of effectively reducing logistics costs for the whole society. Xi Jinping delivered an important speech at the meeting, emphasizing that accelerating product upgrading is an important measure to promote high-quality development, and that a new round of large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones should be encouraged and guided. Logistics is the \"string\" of the real economy, connecting production and consumption, domestic trade and foreign trade. It must effectively reduce the logistics costs of the whole society, enhance the core competitiveness of the industry, and improve the efficiency of economic operation. (Chinese Government Website) Comments: Large-scale equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods will effectively promote investment and consumption. The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2023 proposed that we should promote large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, driven by improving technology, energy consumption, emission and other standards. This meeting of the Central Finance Committee continued the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference and made more detailed arrangements for \"large-scale equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods.\" From an investment perspective, the promotion of large-scale equipment renewal will encourage companies to accelerate the depreciation of old equipment and stimulate their demand for new equipment, thus driving the transformation and upgrading of equipment production and manufacturing. In the short term, replacing old equipment with new equipment may put pressure on corporate profits; in the long term, equipment updates will improve corporate operating efficiency, boost corporate investment, and have a positive impact on the expansion of domestic demand and the recovery of fundamentals. From a consumption perspective, the trade-in of old consumer goods for new ones will boost demand for durable consumer goods. The contribution rate of consumption to economic growth in 2023 will rise to 82.5%, significantly higher than the 32.8% in 2022 and the pre-epidemic average of 59.5% from 2017 to 2019. Consumption is expected to become the main engine driving my country\\'s economic growth. In terms of consumption structure, given that my country\\'s fundamentals are still in the process of recovery and are still facing challenges such as insufficient effective demand and unstable social expectations, the demand for durable consumer goods needs to be further expanded. The trade-in of consumer goods will promote the sinking of the consumer market and boost the consumption of durable goods, thus boosting industrial demand in related fields. In terms of the market outlook, there is hope for the subsidy policy for home appliances and new energy vehicles going to the countryside. New logistics models combined with platform economy, low-altitude economy, autonomous driving, etc. are expected to accelerate their formation. From a direction perspective, logistics is a bridge connecting production and consumption. Reducing logistics costs will help more funds flow into the real economy. In terms of methods, the first is to optimize the transportation structure and strengthen \"road-to-rail\" and \"road-to-water\". The construction of railways and waterways is expected to become an important investment direction in infrastructure; the second is to develop new logistics methods that combine platform economy, low-altitude economy, unmanned driving, etc. The model points out the direction of future transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry. Risk warning: The macro economy is less than expected, serious credit events occur, and policy changes are less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('267e0858-7a39-5196-be76-43e80fed6dc6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6475334027782083, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'P9EJ99LIHB7QDF0I4SC3MA3R5VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:31 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'P9EJ99LIHB7QDF0I4SC3MA3R5VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e48e4200-4ad9-53dc-ae57-8e5787f69241'), 'title': 'Overseas Economic Week Observation', 'author': 'Fan Xin', 'orgName': '山西证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000080', 'orgSName': '山西证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvqTvpY7hN9z5lFskhZHS6Xc=', 'researcher': '范鑫', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000377732'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvqTvpY7hN9z5lFskhZHS6Xc=', 'site': 'Shanxi Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '山西证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623723104_1.pdf?1709030128000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623723104_1.pdf?1709030128000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas Economic Week Observation', 'originalAuthor': '范鑫', 'originalContent': '投资要点：美国：降息预期再修正，制造业呈现复苏迹象（1）央行动态美联储公布1月FOMC会议纪要，显示美联储官员认为过早降息的风险大于借贷成本长期居高不下的风险，首次降息的时点仍然存在不确定性。纪要公布后，市场对于3月降息的预期进一步下修，截至2024年2月25日，CMEFedWatch工具显示市场预期3月开启首次降息概率仅为2.5%，较2月16日的10%下修，预计6月开启首次降息为基准情形，预计全年降息75bp。（2）重点数据美国经济数据呈现韧性，制造业出现复苏迹象。S&PGlobal发布数据显示，美国2月综合PMI录的51.4，其中，季调后服务业PMI为51.3，制造业PMI为51.5，连续第二个月位于枯荣线之上。地产市场由于年初抵押贷款利率走低，二手房销售量出现明显改善，1月成屋销售环比增3.1%，创23年8月以来新高，库存水平处于低位支撑价格，按当前销售速度，成屋库存预计可售3个月，供给依旧偏紧，售价中位数同比增5.07%，再上行。近期伴随着降息预期的修正，美国抵押贷款利率开始反弹，截至2月22日，30Y-FRM平均为6.90%，15Y-FRM平均为6.29%，均较一周前（6.77%、6.12%）反弹。非美国家：欧元区、日本制造业仍低迷经济基本面呈现美强欧弱。欧洲2月制造业PMI为46.1，延续位于枯荣线之下，反映其制造业依旧低迷，而服务业PMI为50.0，稍有改善。在经济相对疲弱的背景下，欧元区通胀压力进一步放缓，欧元区20国1月HICP、核心HICP同比增速均延续下行。日本服务业扩张延续，制造业依旧疲弱。2月制造业PMI为47.2，创2020年8月以来新低，服务业PMI为52.5，连续18个月扩张。周观点我们认为，美国经济整体表现较强，制造业似有复苏之势，较高的借贷成本虽已使得美国地产市场大幅降温，但低库存为价格提供了支撑，与此同时，当前美国通胀的决定因素已由可变价格转化为粘性价格，因此，短期内降息的必要性不强，且过早降息会增加再通胀风险，因此，我们认为市场降息预期仍有调整的空间，预计2024年8月开启首次降息。风险提示海外流动性超预期恶化，通胀超预期发展，地缘冲突超预期', 'content': \"Investment points: United States: Interest rate cut expectations are revised again, and the manufacturing industry shows signs of recovery (1) Central Bank Dynamics The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the January FOMC meeting, showing that Fed officials believe that the risk of premature interest rate cuts is greater than the risk of long-term high borrowing costs. The first rate cut The timing remains uncertain. After the minutes were released, the market's expectations for an interest rate cut in March were further revised downwards. As of February 25, 2024, the CMEFedWatch tool showed that the market expected that the probability of the first interest rate cut in March was only 2.5%, which was revised down from 10% on February 16. The first rate cut is expected to be in June as the base case, and interest rates are expected to be cut by 75bp throughout the year. (2) Key data: The U.S. economic data shows resilience, and the manufacturing industry shows signs of recovery. Data released by S&P Global showed that the U.S. Comprehensive PMI in February was 51.4. Among them, the seasonally adjusted services PMI was 51.3 and the manufacturing PMI was 51.5, which were above the boom-and-bust line for the second consecutive month. In the real estate market, due to lower mortgage interest rates at the beginning of the year, second-hand home sales have improved significantly. Sales of existing homes in January increased by 3.1% month-on-month, hitting a new high since August 23. Inventory levels are at a low level to support prices. According to the current sales rate, existing home inventory It is expected to be available for sale for 3 months, and the supply is still tight. The median selling price increased by 5.07% year-on-year, and then continued to rise. With the recent revision of interest rate cut expectations, U.S. mortgage interest rates have begun to rebound. As of February 22, the average 30Y-FRM was 6.90%, and the average 15Y-FRM was 6.29%, both rebounding from a week ago (6.77%, 6.12%). Non-U.S. countries: The manufacturing industry in the Eurozone and Japan is still sluggish, and the economic fundamentals are strong in the United States and weak in Europe. Europe's manufacturing PMI in February was 46.1, continuing to be below the boom-bust line, reflecting that its manufacturing industry is still sluggish, while the services PMI was 50.0, a slight improvement. Against the background of a relatively weak economy, inflationary pressure in the Eurozone has further slowed, and the year-on-year growth rates of HICP and core HICP of the 20 Eurozone countries in January have continued to decline. The expansion of Japan's service industry continues, while the manufacturing industry remains weak. The manufacturing PMI in February was 47.2, a new low since August 2020, and the service PMI was 52.5, expanding for 18 consecutive months. From the weekly perspective, we believe that the overall performance of the U.S. economy is strong, and the manufacturing industry seems to be recovering. Although higher borrowing costs have significantly cooled the U.S. real estate market, low inventory has provided support for prices. At the same time, the current U.S. inflation The determinants of interest rates have been transformed from variable prices to sticky prices. Therefore, the need for interest rate cuts in the short term is not strong, and premature interest rate cuts will increase the risk of reflation. Therefore, we believe that there is still room for adjustment in market interest rate cut expectations, and it is expected that in 2024 The first interest rate cut began in August. Risks indicate that overseas liquidity has deteriorated beyond expectations, inflation has developed beyond expectations, and geopolitical conflicts have exceeded expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('c6212065-a43b-547c-84cb-1e543dcab783'), 'sentimentScore': 0.21518054604530334, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GUGTFQ7DNNVG049BJ77URSGV3JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:33 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GUGTFQ7DNNVG049BJ77URSGV3JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0846839d-6892-51bd-8def-e8dce75a2379'), 'title': 'Monetary Policy and Liquidity Observation: Funding remained loose in the first week after the holiday', 'author': 'Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvhvDELeSvOGMdN54xZ8jJjI=', 'researcher': '董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvhvDELeSvOGMdN54xZ8jJjI=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623723043_1.pdf?1709024403000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623723043_1.pdf?1709024403000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Monetary Policy and Liquidity Observation: Funding remained loose in the first week after the holiday', 'originalAuthor': '董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点节后首周资金面维持宽松海外方面，上周（2月19日-2月25日）全球主要央行货币政策无重大变化。联邦资金利率期货隐含的3月FOMC降息25bp的可能性为2.5%，不降息的可能性为97.5%。国内流动性方面，节后首周资金面总体维持偏宽松态势。在春节现金回流等因素的支撑下，尽管央行回收跨节流动性、且叠加税期效应，短端资金利率仍较为稳定，只是银行与非银分层有所扩大。国信狭义流动性高频扩散指数较节前一周（2月5日-2月9日）边际上升0.05至101.03。其中价格指标贡献228.65%，数量指标贡献-128.65%。价格指数升高（宽松）主要上周全周标准化后的同业存单加权利率、R/DR加权利率偏离度（7天/14天利率减去同期限政策利率）和R001总体环比下行支撑。数量上，央行回收跨节流动性对数量指标形成拖累。除跨月因素外，本周需关注以下因素的扰动：同业存单到期超过5000亿元。央行公开市场操作：上周（2月19日-2月25日），央行净投放流动性资金-8600亿元。其中：7天逆回购净投放3220亿元（到期1050亿元，投放4270亿元），14天逆回购净投放-11820亿元（到期11820亿元，投放0亿元）。本周（2月26日-3月3日），央行逆回购将到期4270亿元，其中7天逆回购到期4270亿元，14天逆回购到期0亿元。截至本周一（2月26日）央行7天逆回购净投放2970亿元，14天逆回购净投放0亿元，OMO存量为7240亿元。银行间交易量：上周（2月19日-2月23日），银行间市场质押回购平均日均成交7.09万亿，较春节前一周（2月2日-2月8日，6.01万亿）升高1.08万亿。隔夜回购占比为87.3%，较春节前一周（59.0%）升高28.2pct。债券发行：上周政府债净融资3594.0亿元，本周计划发行2406.1亿元，净融资额预计为320.6亿元；上周同业存单净融资6002.6亿元，本周计划发行2057.4亿元，净融资额预计为-3116.9亿元；上周政策银行债净融资1321.8亿元，本周计划发行450.0亿元，净融资额预计为-2292.2亿元；上周商业银行次级债券净融资0.0亿元，本周计划发行0.0亿元，净融资额预计为0.0亿元；上周企业债券净融资-318.5亿元（其中城投债融资贡献约26%），本周计划发行1105.6亿元，净融资额预计为-1439.6亿元。上周五（2月23日）人民币CFETS一篮子汇率指数较春节前一周（2月9日）上行0.12至99.43，同期美元指数下行0.10，位于103.97。2月23日，美元兑人民币在岸汇率较2月9日的7.19上行约57基点至7.20；离岸汇率上行约7基点至7.21。风险提示：需求改善不及预期，海外经济进入衰退。', 'content': \"Core view: Funding remained loose in the first week after the holiday. In terms of overseas markets, there were no major changes in the monetary policies of the world's major central banks last week (February 19-February 25). The implied probability of a 25bp rate cut by the March FOMC in federal funds rate futures is 2.5%, and the probability of no rate cut is 97.5%. In terms of domestic liquidity, funds generally remained loose in the first week after the holiday. Supported by factors such as the return of cash during the Spring Festival, despite the central bank's withdrawal of cross-holiday liquidity and the superimposed tax period effects, short-end funding rates are still relatively stable, but the stratification of banks and non-banks has expanded. Guosen's narrow liquidity high-frequency diffusion index increased marginally by 0.05 to 101.03 compared with the week before the holiday (February 5-February 9). Among them, the price indicator contributed 228.65% and the quantity indicator contributed -128.65%. The increase (easing) in the price index was mainly supported by the weighted interest rate on interbank certificates of deposit after normalization for the whole week last week, the R/DR weighted interest rate deviation (7-day/14-day interest rate minus the policy interest rate of the same period) and the overall downward trend of R001. In terms of quantity, the central bank's withdrawal of cross-section liquidity has exerted a drag on quantitative indicators. In addition to cross-month factors, we need to pay attention to the disturbance of the following factors this week: Interbank certificates of deposit expired for more than 500 billion yuan. Open market operations of the central bank: Last week (February 19-February 25), the central bank released a net liquidity fund of -860 billion yuan. Among them: the net investment in 7-day reverse repos is 322 billion yuan (105 billion yuan is due, 427 billion yuan is invested), and the 14-day reverse repurchase net investment is -1182 billion yuan (1182 billion yuan is due, 0 billion yuan is invested). This week (February 26-March 3), the central bank’s reverse repurchase will expire at 427 billion yuan, of which 7-day reverse repurchase will expire at 427 billion yuan, and 14-day reverse repurchase will expire at 0 billion yuan. As of this Monday (February 26), the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase net investment was 297 billion yuan, the 14-day reverse repurchase net investment was 0 billion yuan, and the OMO stock was 724 billion yuan. Inter-bank transaction volume: Last week (February 19-February 23), the average daily turnover of pledged repurchase in the inter-bank market was 7.09 trillion, which was 60,100 yuan compared with the week before the Spring Festival (February 2-February 8). billion) increased by 1.08 trillion. Overnight repurchases accounted for 87.3%, an increase of 28.2pct from the week before the Spring Festival (59.0%). Bond issuance: Net financing of government bonds last week was 359.40 billion yuan, and 240.61 billion yuan was planned to be issued this week, with net financing expected to be 32.06 billion yuan; net financing of interbank certificates of deposit last week was 600.26 billion yuan, and 205.74 billion yuan was planned to be issued this week, net financing The amount is expected to be -311.69 billion yuan; last week, policy bank debt net financing was 132.18 billion yuan, and 45.0 billion yuan is planned to be issued this week, and the net financing amount is expected to be -229.22 billion yuan; last week, commercial bank subordinated bond net financing was 0.0 billion yuan, This week, it is planned to issue 0.0 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is expected to be 0.0 billion yuan; last week, the net financing of corporate bonds was -31.85 billion yuan (of which urban investment bond financing contributed about 26%), and this week it is planned to issue 110.56 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of It is expected to be -143.96 billion yuan. Last Friday (February 23), the RMB CFETS basket exchange rate index rose 0.12 to 99.43 from the week before the Spring Festival (February 9). During the same period, the US dollar index fell 0.10 to 103.97. On February 23, the onshore exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB It rose by about 57 basis points to 7.20 from 7.19 on February 9; the offshore exchange rate rose by about 7 basis points to 7.21. Risk warning: Demand does not improve as expected, and overseas economies enter recession.\", 'authorid': UUID('7f0ba462-39fa-5efc-b2aa-f8b8339a39b2'), 'sentimentScore': -0.27855490148067474, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'IJ620BG4ESBQ92SMDF9HVTBAD7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:35 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'IJ620BG4ESBQ92SMDF9HVTBAD7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c6564d0f-0f91-54b3-9b8e-863d95f75272'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Weekly Report: Domestic interest rates and stock prices may deviate significantly from domestic fundamentals', 'author': 'Li Zhizhi, Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvuQxxpWAHr41TMRDmlySD8U=', 'researcher': '李智能,董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245053', '11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6ZrtvuQxxpWAHr41TMRDmlySD8U=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623723042_1.pdf?1709024109000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623723042_1.pdf?1709024109000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Weekly Report: Domestic interest rates and stock prices may deviate significantly from domestic fundamentals', 'originalAuthor': '李智能,董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点国内利率和股票价格或明显偏离国内基本面。本周国信高频宏观扩散指数A维持负值，指数B继续下行。从分项来看，本周房地产领域景气变化不大，投资领域景气有所回落，消费领域景气有所上升。从季节性比较来看，本周指数B标准化后继续下行，表现逊于历史平均水平，国内经济增长向上动力仍偏弱。基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率和股票价格明显偏低，工业品价格偏高，预计下周（2024年3月1日所在周）十年期国债利率、上证综合指数将上行，南华工业品指数将下行。周度价格高频跟踪方面：（1）本周食品、非食品价格均下跌。预计2024年2月CPI食品环比约为3.5%，非食品环比约为0.4%，CPI整体环比约为1.0%，2月CPI同比或明显回升至0.7%。（2）2月上旬国内流通领域生产资料价格小幅回落。预计2024年2月国内PPI环比在零附近，PPI同比或持平上月的-2.5%。风险提示：政策刺激力度减弱，经济增速下滑。', 'content': \"The core point is that domestic interest rates and stock prices may deviate significantly from domestic fundamentals. This week, Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A maintained a negative value, and Index B continued to decline. From a sub-item perspective, the real estate sector's prosperity has not changed much this week, the investment sector's boom has declined, and the consumption sector's boom has increased. From a seasonal comparison point of view, index B continued to decline after normalization this week, and its performance was worse than the historical average. The upward momentum of domestic economic growth is still weak. Forecasting asset prices based on the Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index shows that current domestic interest rates and stock prices are significantly low, and industrial product prices are high. It is expected that next week (the week of March 1, 2024) the ten-year government bond interest rate, the Shanghai Stock Exchange The composite index will rise, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index will fall. Weekly price high-frequency tracking: (1) Both food and non-food prices fell this week. It is expected that in February 2024, the food CPI will be approximately 3.5% month-on-month, the non-food month-on-month CPI will be approximately 0.4%, and the overall month-on-month CPI will be approximately 1.0%. The CPI in February may rebound significantly to 0.7% year-on-year. (2) In early February, the prices of means of production in the domestic circulation sector fell slightly. It is expected that the domestic PPI in February 2024 will be near zero month-on-month, and the PPI may be the same as last month's -2.5% year-on-year. Risk warning: Policy stimulus will weaken and economic growth will decline.\", 'authorid': UUID('92623406-8214-5e94-84f7-458373c02882'), 'sentimentScore': -0.952117876149714, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'VERM34VVJAUHS7QL0TDLLAFGC3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:39 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'VERM34VVJAUHS7QL0TDLLAFGC3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('afdb6efd-d2ba-5024-b1fc-a9db3583f955'), 'title': 'Major Asset Allocation Monthly Report Issue 32: March 2024: The policy game intensifies, pay attention to the \"Two Sessions\" and the timing of the Fed\\'s interest rate cut', 'author': 'Zheng Xiaoxia, Zhang Yunzhi, Ren Siyu', 'orgName': '华安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000064', 'orgSName': '华安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6Zrtvh83BTguRiUpHz7lLe7L3sc=', 'researcher': '郑小霞,张运智,任思雨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181105', '11000370201', '11000370161'], 'count': 1, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=faz29+Z/WAL8HKot6Zrtvh83BTguRiUpHz7lLe7L3sc=', 'site': 'Huaan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623721471_1.pdf?1709048773000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402271623721471_1.pdf?1709048773000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Major Asset Allocation Monthly Report Issue 32: March 2024: The policy game intensifies, pay attention to the \"Two Sessions\" and the timing of the Fed\\'s interest rate cut', 'originalAuthor': '郑小霞,张运智,任思雨', 'originalContent': '美联储降息时点再度推迟，二季度降息仍存可能性。2024年1月美联储议息会议纪要整体对降息态度维持审慎。美联储官员中大多数担心降息太快的风险，只有少部分官员担忧高利率对经济的冲击。美联储认为2023年四季度GDP增长保持强劲，总体认可通胀回落态势，但小幅下调了失业率预期。美联储官员对通胀回落过程出现反复存在担忧，美联储尚未确认何时降息，仍在耐心等待数据进一步验证通胀回落。因此，3月份降息概率极低，但二季度降息仍存可能性。受美联储议息会议纪要对降息持谨慎态度影响，市场继续推迟对美联储首次降息时点预期，CME观测器显示，数据显示的5月美联储首次降息25BP的概率为29.1%、维持利率不变概率为70.9%；6月份首次降息25BP的概率为71.5%、维持利率不变的概率为28.5%。经济基本面修复动能有所改善，但3月公布的经济数据难超预期。春节旅游出行数据整体好于预期，显示经济基本面修复动能有所改善。但在春节数据拉高市场预期后，从高频指标并未大幅改善，预计3月中旬公布的经济数据难超预期。预计1-2月社零同比增长5.1%，固定资产投资同比增长2.3%，其中制造业投资同比增长5.8%、基建投资增速6.8%、地产投资增速-9.8%，出口同比-3%；2月CPI同比0.1%、PPI同比-2.1%。商品与服务消费延续复苏，服务消费好于商品消费。2月前两周乘用车批发和零售当周日均销量平均值分别为.5万辆和4.0万辆，剔除春节不可比因素后，2月第1周批发和零售销量同比分别上涨8%和48%。服务类消费继续向好，2月电影票房周周均收入较去年同期增长117%，剔除春节档因素后，1-2月电影票房收入维持较高增速。春节期间商务部监测数据显示消费复苏有改善迹象，但居民部门收入和信心依然面临一定掣肘，消费内生复苏难以明显提速。', 'content': \"The timing of the Fed's interest rate cut has been postponed again, and a rate cut in the second quarter is still possible. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January 2024 maintained a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts as a whole. Most Fed officials are worried about the risk of cutting interest rates too quickly, while only a few are worried about the impact of high interest rates on the economy. The Federal Reserve believes that GDP growth will remain strong in the fourth quarter of 2023, and generally recognizes the downward trend in inflation, but has slightly lowered its unemployment rate forecast. Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly expressed concerns about the decline in inflation. The Fed has not yet confirmed when it will cut interest rates and is still patiently waiting for data to further verify the decline in inflation. Therefore, the probability of a rate cut in March is extremely low, but a rate cut in the second quarter is still possible. Affected by the cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts in the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, the market continues to postpone its expectations for the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut. The CME Observer shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time by 25 basis points in May is 29.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 29.1%. 70.9%; the probability of cutting interest rates for the first time by 25BP in June is 71.5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 28.5%. The momentum for repairing economic fundamentals has improved, but the economic data released in March are unlikely to exceed expectations. The Spring Festival tourism and travel data were overall better than expected, indicating that the recovery momentum of economic fundamentals has improved. However, after the Spring Festival data raised market expectations, high-frequency indicators did not improve significantly. It is expected that the economic data released in mid-March will be difficult to exceed expectations. From January to February, social retail sales are expected to increase by 5.1% year-on-year, and fixed asset investment will increase by 2.3% year-on-year, including manufacturing investment growth of 5.8% year-on-year, infrastructure investment growth of 6.8%, real estate investment growth of -9.8%, and exports of -3% year-on-year; In February, CPI was 0.1% year-on-year, and PPI was -2.1% year-on-year. Consumption of goods and services continued to recover, with service consumption better than goods consumption. The average weekly sales volume of passenger car wholesale and retail in the first two weeks of February was 5,000 and 40,000 units respectively. After excluding the incomparable factors of the Spring Festival, wholesale and retail sales in the first week of February increased by 8% and 48% year-on-year respectively. %. Service consumption continues to improve. The average weekly movie box office revenue in February increased by 117% compared with the same period last year. After excluding the Spring Festival period, movie box office revenue maintained a relatively high growth rate from January to February. During the Spring Festival, monitoring data from the Ministry of Commerce showed signs of improvement in consumption recovery, but the income and confidence of the household sector still faced certain constraints, and it was difficult to significantly accelerate the endogenous recovery in consumption.\", 'authorid': UUID('7036de1b-0245-56a7-a975-e73f641d6842'), 'sentimentScore': -0.40248462557792664, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '04R1A6N5EJRNDK93SVTQAMFMJNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:41 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '04R1A6N5EJRNDK93SVTQAMFMJNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('127df929-dfe7-56f5-994d-3180eb9b3481'), 'title': 'FICC & Asset Allocation Weekly Observation: What’s behind the easy decline and difficulty of interest rates?', 'author': 'Li Pei,Xie Jianbin', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-27', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk4ovkJf1iF6uDIaNsZH2uEo=', 'researcher': '李沛,谢建斌', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000337631', '11000192027'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk4ovkJf1iF6uDIaNsZH2uEo=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623621039_1.pdf?1709020359000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623621039_1.pdf?1709020359000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'FICC & Asset Allocation Weekly Observation: What’s behind the easy decline and difficulty of interest rates?', 'originalAuthor': '李沛,谢建斌', 'originalContent': '投资要点宽货币信号延续，市场演绎阶段性股债双牛。在2月20日5年期及以上LPR利率下调及存款利率调降等因素催化之下，利率债市场延续强势。周五10Y国债利率收于2.38%，周降幅近5bp。新发10Y国债利率持续低位。2月23日，财政部10年期国债“24附息国债04”加权中标收益率为2.35%，边际中标收益率为2.37%，全场倍数6.27，边际倍数5.64。权益市场方面，沪深300指数周涨幅为3.71%，且已连续9个交易日上行，市场风险偏好有所修复。央行于稳地产、稳汇率、稳息差间寻求平衡。2023年至今，央行宽松货币政策的延续主要体现为：（1）降准。2023年3月、2023年9月央行实施两次全面降准，每次各降25bp；2024年2月央行实施全面降准50bp。（2）降息。央行2023年6月和8月进行两次MLF利率调降，其中2023年6月MLF及两个期限的LPR利率均下调10bp，呈现对称调降；而2023年8月MLF和1年期的LPR分别调降15bp和10bp，但LPR5年期以上的利率是持平前值的，即挂钩房贷的利率已近8个月按兵不动。所以本周LPR5年期以上利率25bp的降息落地对2023年8月的补降，整体有望推动广谱利率下移。25bp的降幅隐含了对地产端拉动的迫切，映射出经济修复层面有效需求释放仍不足，也体现了逆周期政策的接续。再次，从MLF及LPR利率非对称降息意图来看，短端保持定力，长端利率先降一方面也有助于防止资金空转。部分银行理财资金通过保险资管存放银行科目或从一般存款转为同业存款。此举整体仍然利多债市。一方面，对于商业银行，此前127号文《关于进一步规范同业业务的通知》规定指标中，同业负债不能超总负债的1/3，故纳入银行一般存款更易满足监管层面需求。但一般存款较同业存款利率更高，纳入前者或对银行的净息差形成挤压。而该类变更将一定程度改善商业银行整体负债成本，减少“存款的虚增”，也将助于引导资产端利率下行。另一方面，对于保险资管机构，其主要赚取通道费用。将此前一般存款转为同业存款，相当于一款无风险且收益相对较高的投资标的不复存在，险资会更倾向于在资产端投向债券，而债券的抢筹则将进一步推动“资产荒”及利率的易下难上。据银行理财登记托管中心，截至2023年末，全国共有258家银行机构和31家理财公司有存续的理财产品，共存续产品3.98万只，较年初增加14.86%，存续规模为26.80万亿元。此外，从监管机构角度而言，保险公司协议存款为中长期负债产品，期限通常为5年。“转回同业存款”可以改善商业银行资产负债端期限错配的出现，减少流动性风险的出现，也有助于改善资金空转行为。关注2月PMI对于经济景气度的验证。PMI已连续4个月位于荣枯线下方，但1月社融数据的超预期、春节期间消费数据的景气对债市形成调整动力。其中，1月居民中长期贷款同比多增4041亿元，M2-M1剪刀差收窄至2.8%，票据融资减少9733亿元，虽有春节、政府债券支撑及基数因素，但整体信贷结构有所改善。地产需求端政策延续加码，房价经前期回落后，整体有望逐步进入磨底区间。具体销售情况而言，截至1月31日，30大中城市商品房成交面积810.04万平方米，在去年低基数的背景下同比降6.95%，金三银四或难再现。10Y国债利率低点年内有望触及2.3%。LPR降息之后，商业银行负债端也延续跟进。近期部分银行迎来新一轮存款利率下调，宽货币氛围仍然浓厚。据央行数据，2023年Q4我国商业银行净息差已经下滑至1.69%，据2021Q4的高点2.08%已降39bp。展望而言，我们认为2024年国内或仍有1次MLF降息与1次全面降准。尽管2月调降LPR长端利率较1月调降对于银行资产端重定价形成缓和空间，但2024年商业银行净息差大概率仍将下行。短期债市博弈空间较为有限，但全年来看仍有走牛空间，10Y国债利率下限年内有望突破2.3%。风险提示：美国通胀回落速度不及预期、海外银行业危机蔓延、国际地缘摩擦超预期。', 'content': 'Investment points: The currency signal continues, and the market interprets the periodic bullish situation of stocks and bonds. Catalyzed by factors such as the reduction of LPR interest rates of 5 years and above and the reduction of deposit interest rates on February 20, the interest rate bond market continues to be strong. The 10Y Treasury bond interest rate closed at 2.38% on Friday, a weekly decrease of nearly 5bp. The interest rate on newly issued 10Y Treasury bonds continues to be low. On February 23, the weighted bid yield of the Ministry of Finance\\'s 10-year Treasury Bond \"24 Coupon-bearing Treasury Bond 04\" was 2.35%, the marginal bid yield was 2.37%, the overall multiple was 6.27, and the marginal multiple was 5.64. In the equity market, the CSI 300 Index has a weekly increase of 3.71% and has been rising for 9 consecutive trading days. Market risk appetite has been restored. The central bank seeks a balance between stabilizing real estate, stabilizing exchange rates, and stabilizing interest rate differentials. From 2023 to the present, the continuation of the central bank\\'s loose monetary policy is mainly reflected in: (1) RRR reduction. In March 2023 and September 2023, the central bank implemented two comprehensive RRR cuts, each time by 25bp; in February 2024, the central bank implemented a comprehensive RRR cut of 50bp. (2) Interest rate cut. The central bank will cut MLF interest rates twice in June and August 2023. In June 2023, the MLF and two-term LPR interest rates were both reduced by 10bp, showing a symmetrical reduction; while in August 2023, the MLF and 1-year LPR interest rates were reduced by 10bp. They were lowered by 15bp and 10bp respectively, but the interest rate of LPR over 5 years remained unchanged from the previous value, that is, the interest rate of linked mortgage loans has remained unchanged for nearly 8 months. Therefore, this week’s 25bp interest rate cut for LPR’s 5-year and above interest rates is expected to make up for the reduction in August 2023, and is expected to push broad-spectrum interest rates downward. The 25bp drop implies the urgency of stimulating the real estate sector, reflects that the release of effective demand at the level of economic recovery is still insufficient, and also reflects the continuation of countercyclical policies. Thirdly, judging from the intention of asymmetric interest rate cuts in MLF and LPR interest rates, the short-end remains stable, and the first reduction in long-end interest rates will also help prevent funds from being idle. Some bank financial management funds are deposited in bank accounts through insurance asset management or transferred from general deposits to interbank deposits. This move is still bullish for the bond market overall. On the one hand, for commercial banks, among the indicators stipulated in the previous Notice on Further Standardizing Interbank Business in Document No. 127, interbank liabilities cannot exceed 1/3 of the total liabilities, so it is easier to meet regulatory needs by including them as bank general deposits. However, general deposits have higher interest rates than interbank deposits, and the inclusion of the former may squeeze banks\\' net interest margins. Such changes will improve the overall liability costs of commercial banks to a certain extent, reduce the \"inflated increase in deposits\", and will also help guide asset-side interest rates downward. On the other hand, for insurance asset management institutions, they mainly earn channel fees. Converting previous general deposits to interbank deposits means that a risk-free and relatively high-yield investment target no longer exists. Insurance funds will be more inclined to invest in bonds on the asset side, and the rush for bonds will further promote the \"asset \"Shortage\" and interest rates are easy to lower and difficult to raise. According to the Bank Wealth Management Registration and Custody Center, as of the end of 2023, a total of 258 banking institutions and 31 wealth management companies across the country have existing wealth management products, with a total of 39,800 existing products, an increase of 14.86% from the beginning of the year, and the existing scale is 26.80 trillion yuan. In addition, from the perspective of regulatory agencies, insurance company agreement deposits are medium and long-term liability products, with a term usually of 5 years. \"Reversing interbank deposits\" can improve the occurrence of maturity mismatches between assets and liabilities of commercial banks, reduce the emergence of liquidity risks, and also help improve idling behavior of funds. Pay attention to February\\'s PMI\\'s verification of economic prosperity. The PMI has been below the boom-bust line for four consecutive months, but the better-than-expected social finance data in January and the boom in consumption data during the Spring Festival have created adjustment momentum for the bond market. Among them, medium and long-term loans to residents increased by 404.1 billion yuan year-on-year in January, the M2-M1 scissors gap narrowed to 2.8%, and bill financing decreased by 973.3 billion yuan. Despite the Spring Festival, government bond support and base factors, the overall credit structure has improved. . Real estate demand-side policies continue to increase, and after the early decline in housing prices, the overall price is expected to gradually enter the bottom range. In terms of specific sales, as of January 31, the transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bcommercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 8.1004 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 6.95% against the background of a low base last year. It may be difficult to reproduce the gold, three, silver and four properties. The 10Y Treasury bond interest rate is expected to hit a low of 2.3% this year. After the LPR cut interest rates, the liability side of commercial banks also continued to follow suit. Recently, some banks have ushered in a new round of deposit interest rate cuts, and the monetary easing atmosphere is still strong. According to data from the central bank, the net interest margin of my country\\'s commercial banks has fallen to 1.69% in Q4 2023. According to the high of 2.08% in Q4 2021, it has dropped by 39bp. Looking forward, we believe that there may still be one MLF interest rate cut and one comprehensive RRR cut in China in 2024. Although the reduction in the LPR long-term interest rate in February compared with the January reduction has created room for relaxation in the re-pricing of bank assets, there is a high probability that the net interest margin of commercial banks will still decline in 2024. The space for gaming in the short-term bond market is relatively limited, but there is still room for bullish growth throughout the year. The lower limit of the 10Y government bond interest rate is expected to exceed 2.3% within the year. Risk warning: U.S. inflation fell slower than expected, the overseas banking crisis spread, and international geopolitical friction exceeded expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('a9604d37-5f24-5dfa-bf7b-5eb2ccd2f29c'), 'sentimentScore': -0.5966454446315765, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'H6RSHKOBNK4IEMG5ICJFIJ6V6FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'H6RSHKOBNK4IEMG5ICJFIJ6V6FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b2f850cd-d6ab-535a-ac89-fde5d656a2be'), 'title': '2024 U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook: When will the Fed end its balance sheet reduction?', 'author': 'Song Xuetao,Xiang Jingshu', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk1esTwnRqIk61ALfVSVvoMs=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛,向静姝', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658', '11000334362'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk1esTwnRqIk61ALfVSVvoMs=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623598960_1.pdf?1708982471000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623598960_1.pdf?1708982471000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '2024 U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook: When will the Fed end its balance sheet reduction?', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛,向静姝', 'originalContent': '本次缩表已经接近上一次缩表时的规模降幅。但是两次缩表过程中美联储资产负债表的成分变化差异较大。到目前为止，银行准备金依然充裕，为市场提供了足够的流动性。考虑到联储对待缩表的态度是“先放缓，再停止”，我们预计在3月的FOMC会议上联储可能对缩表放缓有更深入的讨论，从5月FOMC开始可能有放缓缩表的时间表，并在年底前完全结束缩表。放缓缩表将为市场提供额外流动性，参考上轮QT结束，美股、美债均有不同程度上涨。风险提示：全球经济深度衰退，美联储货币政策超预期紧缩，测算具有主观性，仅供参考', 'content': 'This balance sheet reduction is already close to the scale reduction seen in the last balance sheet reduction. However, the composition of the Fed\\'s balance sheet changed significantly during the two balance-sheet reduction processes. So far, bank reserves remain ample, providing the market with sufficient liquidity. Considering that the Fed\\'s attitude towards the balance sheet reduction is \"first slow down, then stop\", we expect that the Fed may have a more in-depth discussion on the slowdown of balance sheet reduction at the March FOMC meeting, and there may be a slowdown in the balance sheet reduction starting from the May FOMC meeting. The balance sheet reduction schedule will be completed before the end of the year. Slowing down the balance sheet will provide additional liquidity to the market. With reference to the end of the last round of QT, US stocks and US bonds have risen to varying degrees. Risk warning: The global economy is in deep recession, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has tightened beyond expectations. The calculation is subjective and is for reference only.', 'authorid': UUID('67c74a33-2e09-5223-ab25-3aff53a55cbd'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6966657862067223, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8HNSS4VSR0NP2LO4GPRSLPI2NNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:47 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8HNSS4VSR0NP2LO4GPRSLPI2NNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0d1afdce-6276-5e0f-b677-909ac4ec2d80'), 'title': 'Weekly puzzle series: How to realize robot touch: electronic skin and MEMS sensors', 'author': 'Li Zhe, Zhan Hao', 'orgName': '民生证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000038', 'orgSName': '民生证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk6B3OUSnJxVt8VBuw9zD7v4=', 'researcher': '李哲,占豪', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000268033', '11000424433'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk6B3OUSnJxVt8VBuw9zD7v4=', 'site': 'Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '民生证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623587918_1.pdf?1708974571000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623587918_1.pdf?1708974571000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly puzzle series: How to realize robot touch: electronic skin and MEMS sensors', 'originalAuthor': '李哲,占豪', 'originalContent': '本周关注：恒立液压、徐工机械、中国船舶、东方精工、纽威数控电子皮肤是一种模仿自然皮肤功能的创新技术。它的核心在于使用先进的电子和材料科学技术来制造出能够感知环境变化的灵敏表面。电子皮肤由基底层、传感器层、电路和处理器、能源供应、接口及通信系统以及保护层组成。基底层的灵活性使得电子皮肤可以适应各种形状和表面，传感器层的高度灵敏度则为其提供了类似于人类皮肤的感觉能力。电子皮肤主要依赖于其独特的材料和电子组件，以实现对不同类型的环境刺激（如压力、温度和湿度）的高度敏感和精确反应。电子皮肤的传感器层感应到压力或温度或湿度的变化，将其转换为数字信号并被传输到微处理器和电路系统，通过算法进行处理和分析。电子皮肤的技术难点主要体现在材料的选择以及提升耐久性：1）材料选择：电子皮肤的材料不仅需要达到轻薄和柔软的特性，还需要可拉伸并且对环境因素做出准确快速的响应。2）提升耐久性：由为了在一定时间内准确检测所需型号，需要确保电子系统能在一段时间内稳定运行。因此，延长电子皮肤材料的使用寿命便至关重要。柔性传感器是触觉传感器的一个子集，在电子皮肤的应用中扮演着至关重要的角色：1）柔性传感器由基底层、介电层、传感器的接触点以及传感区组成。柔性传感器的基底材料主要有聚合物基材以及纺织材料。2）柔性传感器主要分为电阻式传感器、电容式传感器、压电传感器以及摩擦电型传感器。电阻式传感器适合于基础的压力映射和触觉反馈系统，但在灵敏度和稳定性方面相对较弱，且容易受到环境因素如温度和湿度的影响；电容式传感器以其高灵敏度、快速响应和高精度表现突出，非常适合于高精度的触觉感测，但成本相对较高，且可能受到电磁干扰。3）柔性传感器制造技术主要为印刷法：每种工艺都涉及某种印刷方法，包括使用导电油墨和基底形成不同的设计。除此之外还有丝网印刷、喷墨打印、激光剥离以及3D打印等制作技术。电子皮肤市场规模与行业情况：全球柔性传感器行业市场规模呈现逐年上涨态势，2022年全球柔性传感器市场规模为19.31亿美元，需求量为2.43万个，均价为7.95美元/个。中国虽然相关落地产品多，但整体而言柔性传感器还处于发展初期，在材料、技术及产业链等方面都分别面临着不小挑战。中国柔性传感器行业市场规模增长速度较快，2022年中国柔性传感器行业市场规模为21.12亿元，国产化率也在不断提高。国内典型企业：能斯达、钛深科技、墨现科技、帕西尼。国外典型企业：GelSight、Canatu、Novasentis。柔性传感器以其可弯曲和伸缩的特性而著称：通常由柔性材料制成，能够适应弯曲和扭曲的表面。在测量压力、弯曲、伸展等物理变化方面表现出色，但大规模生产时可能面临复杂的制造工艺和耐久性问题，同时性能稳定性也是一个挑战。MEMS传感器以其小尺寸、高精度和低能耗而闻名：MEMS技术能够集成各种传感功能（如压力、温度、加速度等）到一个极小的芯片上，但其生产成本较高以及技术较复杂。在实际应用中，将这两种传感器结合使用，可以充分利用它们的优势，同时弥补各自的不足。投资建议：关注相关MEMS压阻传感器技术的华培动力、安培龙风险提示：机器人新产品研发及拓展不及预期的风险；机器人触觉传感器技术路线不确定的风险', 'content': \"This week’s attention: Hengli Hydraulics, XCMG Machinery, China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, Dongfang Precision Industry, Neway CNC electronic skin is an innovative technology that imitates the functions of natural skin. At its core, it uses advanced electronics and materials science techniques to create sensitive surfaces that can sense changes in their environment. Electronic skin consists of a base layer, sensor layer, circuits and processors, energy supply, interface and communication systems, and protective layers. The flexibility of the base layer allows the e-skin to adapt to various shapes and surfaces, while the high sensitivity of the sensor layer provides it with sensory capabilities similar to human skin. Electronic skins rely primarily on their unique materials and electronic components to achieve highly sensitive and precise responses to different types of environmental stimuli, such as pressure, temperature, and humidity. The sensor layer of the electronic skin senses changes in pressure or temperature or humidity, converts them into digital signals and transmits them to microprocessors and circuit systems for processing and analysis by algorithms. The technical difficulties of electronic skin are mainly reflected in the selection of materials and improving durability: 1) Material selection: The materials of electronic skin not only need to be thin and soft, but also need to be stretchable and respond accurately and quickly to environmental factors. 2) Improve durability: In order to accurately detect the required model within a certain period of time, it is necessary to ensure that the electronic system can operate stably for a period of time. Therefore, extending the service life of electronic skin materials is crucial. Flexible sensors are a subset of tactile sensors and play a vital role in the application of electronic skin: 1) Flexible sensors consist of a base layer, a dielectric layer, the contact points of the sensor, and the sensing area. The base materials of flexible sensors mainly include polymer base materials and textile materials. 2) Flexible sensors are mainly divided into resistive sensors, capacitive sensors, piezoelectric sensors and triboelectric sensors. Resistive sensors are suitable for basic pressure mapping and tactile feedback systems, but are relatively weak in sensitivity and stability, and are easily affected by environmental factors such as temperature and humidity; capacitive sensors are known for their high sensitivity, fast response and high accuracy. It has outstanding performance and is very suitable for high-precision tactile sensing, but the cost is relatively high and it may be subject to electromagnetic interference. 3) Flexible sensor manufacturing technology is mainly printing: Each process involves some kind of printing method, including using conductive ink and substrate to form different designs. In addition, there are production technologies such as screen printing, inkjet printing, laser peeling and 3D printing. Electronic skin market size and industry situation: The global flexible sensor industry market size is increasing year by year. In 2022, the global flexible sensor market size will be US$1.931 billion, with a demand of 24,300 units and an average price of US$7.95 per unit. Although there are many related products in China, overall flexible sensors are still in the early stages of development and face considerable challenges in terms of materials, technology and industrial chain. The market size of China's flexible sensor industry is growing rapidly. In 2022, the market size of China's flexible sensor industry will be 2.112 billion yuan, and the localization rate is also constantly increasing. Typical domestic enterprises: Nengstar, Titanium Technology, Moxian Technology, and Pacini. Typical foreign companies: GelSight, Canatu, Novasentis. Flexible sensors are known for their bendable and stretchable properties: usually made of flexible materials, they can adapt to curved and twisted surfaces. It performs well in measuring physical changes such as pressure, bending, and extension, but may face complex manufacturing processes and durability issues during mass production, and performance stability is also a challenge. MEMS sensors are famous for their small size, high precision and low energy consumption: MEMS technology can integrate various sensing functions (such as pressure, temperature, acceleration, etc.) onto a very small chip, but its production cost is high and the technology is relatively complex. complex. In practical applications, combining these two sensors can make full use of their advantages while making up for their respective shortcomings. Investment advice: Focus on Huapai Power and Ampelon related MEMS piezoresistive sensor technology. Risk warning: The risk of new robot product development and expansion failing to meet expectations; the risk of uncertainty in the technical route of robot tactile sensors.\", 'authorid': UUID('ed0666f2-d7b7-5431-9dce-16e2ac03ae97'), 'sentimentScore': 0.043250905349850655, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '5OQJP38U837R8BGU6EN0DJ8QANVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '5OQJP38U837R8BGU6EN0DJ8QANVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f1ad3493-d095-5db5-aae8-74cd35b2466b'), 'title': 'Research on credit rating methods and models of technology-based enterprises', 'author': 'Shen Xuefeng', 'orgName': '远东资信评估有限公司', 'orgCode': '80002101', 'orgSName': '远东资信', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGykxV8nXJ3ffBkCHY5oz7j2sY=', 'researcher': '申学峰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000360133'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGykxV8nXJ3ffBkCHY5oz7j2sY=', 'site': 'Far East Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '远东资信', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623585218_1.pdf?1708968031000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623585218_1.pdf?1708968031000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Research on credit rating methods and models of technology-based enterprises', 'originalAuthor': '申学峰', 'originalContent': '摘要近年来相关政策大力支持科技型企业债务融资，但是科技产业内涵丰富，需要准确界定科技型企业范围。参考科创板、科创债发行规则，可以首先限定科技型企业应属于高新技术产业和战略性新兴产业。进一步地，可以通过研发投入、研发人员等指标，或科技创新称号、具体核心技术等方面来判断科技属性。以科创板上市公司为样本分析科技型企业特征，可以看出：科技型企业营业收入增速明显高于一般企业，具有高成长特征；科技型企业销售费用、管理费用、研发费用在经常性业务成本中的占比较高，可能更需要进行产品推广，对经营管理水平要求也更高，并且需要更多研发投入来维持实力；科创板公司的整体负债率低于一般企业，且负债中有息负债的占比要更低，资本主要来自权益投资；科创板覆盖的行业类型众多，不同行业在竞争格局、产业周期等方面各具特点。结合科技型企业特征，可以从科技创新实力、业务经营状况、财务杠杆与偿债能力等角度选取指标来评价信用风险。其中，科技创新实力可以考虑用研发支出、研发人员等数据来评价，此外企业拥有的知识产权、科技相关资质荣誉等也可以反映科技创新实力。业务经营状况主要反映企业的经营风险，可以从市场地位、业务多样性、业务发展潜力、经营规模等角度来评价。财务杠杆可以用资产负债率、总债务资本化比率等指标来衡量，偿债能力可以用EBITDA利息保障倍数、CFO/总债务等指标来衡量。此外，评价科技型企业信用风险还应当考虑管理团队经验与管理质量、国家战略支持政策等其他因素。总体而言，科技型企业行业跨度大，产业更新迭代速度快，相关领域专业性强，给信用评级带来困难。可以考虑引入科技领域专家提供评价指导，参考相关专业人士的意见来评估定性指标。为了尽可能做出前瞻性评估，除关注行业具体特征外，还要了解产业技术趋势和外部环境的实时变动。', 'content': 'Abstract In recent years, relevant policies have strongly supported debt financing of technology-based enterprises. However, the technology industry has rich connotations and the scope of technology-based enterprises needs to be accurately defined. Referring to the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the issuance rules of Science and Technology Innovation Bonds, we can first limit the technology enterprises to belong to high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries. Furthermore, technological attributes can be judged through indicators such as R&D investment and R&D personnel, or technological innovation titles, specific core technologies, etc. Taking companies listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board as a sample to analyze the characteristics of technology enterprises, it can be seen that: the growth rate of operating income of technology enterprises is significantly higher than that of ordinary enterprises, and they have high growth characteristics; the sales expenses, management expenses, and R&D expenses of technology enterprises are on a regular basis. The proportion of business costs is relatively high, which may require more product promotion, higher requirements for operation and management, and more R&D investment to maintain strength; the overall debt ratio of companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board is lower than that of ordinary companies, and the debt is medium The proportion of interest-bearing liabilities is lower, and capital mainly comes from equity investment; the Science and Technology Innovation Board covers many types of industries, and different industries have their own characteristics in terms of competition landscape, industry cycle, etc. Combined with the characteristics of technology-based enterprises, indicators can be selected to evaluate credit risks from the perspectives of technological innovation strength, business operating conditions, financial leverage and debt solvency. Among them, the strength of technological innovation can be evaluated using data such as R&D expenditures and R&D personnel. In addition, the intellectual property rights, science and technology-related qualifications and honors owned by the company can also reflect the strength of technological innovation. Business operating conditions mainly reflect the operating risks of an enterprise, and can be evaluated from the perspectives of market position, business diversity, business development potential, and operating scale. Financial leverage can be measured by indicators such as asset-liability ratio and total debt capitalization ratio, and debt solvency can be measured by indicators such as EBITDA interest coverage ratio and CFO/total debt. In addition, other factors such as management team experience and management quality, national strategic support policies, etc. should also be considered when evaluating the credit risks of technology companies. Generally speaking, technology-based enterprises have a large industry span, rapid industrial update and iteration, and strong professionalism in related fields, which brings difficulties to credit ratings. You can consider bringing in experts in the science and technology field to provide evaluation guidance, and refer to the opinions of relevant professionals to evaluate qualitative indicators. In order to make as forward-looking an assessment as possible, in addition to paying attention to the specific characteristics of the industry, it is also necessary to understand industry technology trends and real-time changes in the external environment.', 'authorid': UUID('a05fc76d-cd76-54d4-8138-53f823feef77'), 'sentimentScore': 0.053043884225189686, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'LRPUPCEJL5M3JUD1CKL0TO79T3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:54 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'LRPUPCEJL5M3JUD1CKL0TO79T3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6350f153-40a0-51bc-93ca-c42fd4233e6e'), 'title': 'A brief summary of capital market-related policies in the 2024 government work reports of all provinces across the country', 'author': 'Cai Leixin', 'orgName': '国元证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001043', 'orgSName': '国元证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGykzRDaxx+Cy1PViLsTu3ZdP8=', 'researcher': '蔡雷鑫', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000454238'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGykzRDaxx+Cy1PViLsTu3ZdP8=', 'site': 'Guoyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国元证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623585033_1.pdf?1708967853000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623585033_1.pdf?1708967853000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'A brief summary of capital market-related policies in the 2024 government work reports of all provinces across the country', 'originalAuthor': '蔡雷鑫', 'originalContent': '报告要点：为了契合资本市场高质量发展的主旋律，我们对全国31个省(直辖市、自治区)政府工作报告进行了梳理，整理了各地发展资本市场的主要政策措施，对其中具有共性的重点、要点进行总结，方便更好地观察24年资本市场各省份政策端的发力方向。一是各地高度重视提高上市公司质量，尤其是国有上市公司质量的提升；二是支持和鼓励政府产业基金发展，强化引导撬动作用；三是推动区域股权市场发展，加大专精特新中小企业培育力度；四是加快现代金融机构和市场体系建设（金融机构牌照、一流投行机构、吸引机构展业）；五是重视北交所在多层次资本市场建设中的作用；六是做好金融五篇大文章，尤其是科技金融和绿色金融；七是坚守防风险底线，金融监管和防范风险（风险检测预警平台等）；八是其他经验做法，各省各有特色，如山东提出创新金融伙伴机制、四川实施“天府金泉”科技型企业上市培育计划等等。总的来看，提高上市公司质量、政府产业基金引导作用、现代化金融体系及多层次资本市场建设、五篇金融大文章以及风险防范等几大方面是各省政府在资本市场发展上的关注重��。相较于去年同期工作报告的要点（重视发展多层次资本市场、资本市场服务水平提高、推动企业上市、发展风投、创投基金、国企改革、坚守防风险底线）整体思路保持一致，变化上主要有对“上市公司质量提升”、“金融科技”、现代化金融体系建设等方面的侧重有所增强。可见，高质量发展这一主题已经在各省24年工作安排中提到了较高位置，资本市场的发展亦是如此。风险提示政策解读具有一定的主观性；政策侧重点转向的风险。', 'content': 'Highlights of the report: In order to comply with the main theme of high-quality development of the capital market, we have sorted out the government work reports of 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) across the country, sorted out the main policies and measures for developing capital markets in various regions, and summarized the common key points and key points. A summary is made to facilitate a better observation of the direction of policy efforts in various provinces in the capital market in 24 years. First, localities attach great importance to improving the quality of listed companies, especially the improvement of the quality of state-owned listed companies; second, support and encourage the development of government industrial funds and strengthen the role of guidance and leverage; third, promote the development of regional equity markets and increase the number of specialized, specialized, and new small and medium-sized enterprises. cultivation efforts; the fourth is to accelerate the construction of modern financial institutions and market systems (financial institution licenses, first-class investment banking institutions, attracting institutions to expand business); the fifth is to attach importance to the role of Beijing Jiaotong University in the construction of multi-level capital markets; the sixth is to do a good job in the five major financial Articles, especially technology finance and green finance; Seventh, adhere to the bottom line of risk prevention, financial supervision and risk prevention (risk detection and early warning platform, etc.); Eighth, other experiences and practices, each province has its own characteristics, such as Shandong’s innovative financial partnership mechanism, Sichuan Implement the \"Tianfu Jinquan\" technology enterprise listing cultivation plan, etc. In general, improving the quality of listed companies, the guiding role of government industrial funds, the construction of a modern financial system and multi-level capital markets, the five major financial articles, and risk prevention are the focus of provincial governments in the development of capital markets. Compared with the key points of the work report for the same period last year (paying attention to the development of multi-level capital markets, improving capital market service levels, promoting corporate listings, developing venture capital, venture capital funds, state-owned enterprise reform, and adhering to the bottom line of risk prevention), the overall thinking remains the same, with changes. Mainly, there is an increased emphasis on \"quality improvement of listed companies\", \"financial technology\", and the construction of a modern financial system. It can be seen that the theme of high-quality development has been mentioned at a high level in the 24-year work arrangements of each province, and the same is true for the development of the capital market. Risk reminder: There is a certain degree of subjectivity in policy interpretation; there is a risk of a shift in policy focus.', 'authorid': UUID('7828a07b-fdad-5762-ba97-eb66a4ed722a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.1485045664012432, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'H3ALPMBTRTG50QG5JQD68BDL0RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:57 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'H3ALPMBTRTG50QG5JQD68BDL0RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e0383709-a673-5e72-a6cd-d0ab4b39f163'), 'title': 'January foreign exchange market analysis report: The rebound of the RMB exchange rate was blocked, but the domestic foreign exchange market was generally operating smoothly', 'author': 'Guan Tao,Liu Lipin', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk7bCiqWHe80YX2sJ9d3eTsQ=', 'researcher': '管涛,刘立品', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000330136', '11000330534'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk7bCiqWHe80YX2sJ9d3eTsQ=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623580783_1.pdf?1708963337000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623580783_1.pdf?1708963337000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'January foreign exchange market analysis report: The rebound of the RMB exchange rate was blocked, but the domestic foreign exchange market was generally operating smoothly', 'originalAuthor': '管涛,刘立品', 'originalContent': '1月份，美联储紧缩预期增强，美元指数基本抹去上月跌幅，带动人民币汇率回调，即期汇率较中间价偏离程度扩大，境内外汇差增加。1月份，境内外汇延续供不应求状态，逆差规模小幅扩大，即期结售汇是主要贡献项，货物贸易又是银行代客结售汇逆差扩大的第一大贡献项。1月份，远期结汇对冲比率环比升幅大于远期购汇，市场主体即期结汇意愿强于前期人民币汇率反弹期间，汇率杠杆调节作用总体正常发挥。1月份，跨境资金延续净流入但规模下降，直接投资是第一大贡献项，货物贸易顺差占比上升，继续发挥稳定跨境资金流动的基本盘作用。1月份，证券投资项下跨境资金净流入放缓，但人民币债券对境外机构吸引力仍然偏强，陆股通和债券通合计的北上资金净流入规模增加。风险提示：海外金融风险超预期，主要央行货币政策调整超预期，国内经济复苏不如预期', 'content': \"In January, expectations of tightening by the Federal Reserve increased, and the U.S. dollar index basically erased last month's decline, which led to a correction in the RMB exchange rate. The deviation of the spot exchange rate from the central parity rate expanded, and domestic foreign exchange differentials increased. In January, domestic foreign exchange continued to be in short supply, and the deficit expanded slightly. Spot foreign exchange settlement and sales were the main contributor, and trade in goods was the largest contributor to the expansion of the deficit in foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks on behalf of customers. In January, the forward foreign exchange settlement and hedging ratio increased month-on-month at a greater rate than the forward foreign exchange purchase. The willingness of market entities to spot foreign exchange settlement was stronger than during the previous rebound in the RMB exchange rate. The adjustment effect of exchange rate leverage was generally functioning normally. In January, cross-border capital continued to see net inflows but the scale declined. Direct investment was the largest contributor, and the proportion of goods trade surplus increased, continuing to play a fundamental role in stabilizing cross-border capital flows. In January, the net inflow of cross-border funds under securities investment slowed down, but RMB bonds were still relatively attractive to overseas institutions. The combined net inflow of northbound funds from Northbound Stock Connect and Bond Connect increased. Risk warning: Overseas financial risks exceed expectations, major central banks’ monetary policy adjustments exceed expectations, and domestic economic recovery is not as good as expected.\", 'authorid': UUID('4f9d35aa-b655-5cbb-ba88-ca136ca54237'), 'sentimentScore': -0.04383605718612671, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '27NGMF9SC748EL9QCOKCU8BVUFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:09:59 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '27NGMF9SC748EL9QCOKCU8BVUFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a4f06dbb-64c0-59d4-a159-91f333a5e0ce'), 'title': 'Macro Comment: The road to renewal of equipment and consumption: routines and “new” ideas?', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk+L/xByP1Cn6ZprRwTvM0O0=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk+L/xByP1Cn6ZprRwTvM0O0=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623580481_1.pdf?1708962702000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623580481_1.pdf?1708962702000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: The road to renewal of equipment and consumption: routines and “new” ideas?', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '今年开年的首次中央财经委会议比较特殊。这种特殊性主要表现在两个方面：一是时点上，这次中财委会议和早前召开的深改委会议的会期间隔很短——仅4天，而此前一般是1至2周；二是议题上很特殊——设备更新和“以旧换新”。而中财委作为党领导经济的核心决策议事机构，以往主要关注的是全局性、战略性和长期性的问题。我们认为这至少透露了两个重要的信息；今年设备更新相关的制造业投资将是稳经济的重要补充，而消费可能会受到更多的重视。市场可能更加关心的是怎么干？我们梳理了历史上内外需求较弱的情况下国家求“新”的历史经验，其中2009年6月汽车、家电更新和2022年9月设备更新改造具备一定的参考意义，我们认为至少也有三点启示值得关注：一是资金来源上中央是主力，2009年中央财政在需求补贴中占比超过80%，2022年挑大梁的则是央行和财政部；二是消费端刺激的见效可能更快，尤其在相关领域的增长和通胀上，2009年政策刺激后，7月CPI见底，社零同比在高基数下稳步上升；三是居民和企业的杠杆率是影响政策效果的重要因素，2009年第二季度居民杠杆率为20.6%，政府以旧换新的补贴体量虽然不大，但撬动效果达1：24，而今可能需要政府在更大程度上发力。接下来重点关注本周的国常会以及接下来一个月内部委的后续部署。2009年6月“以旧换新”：汽车为主、家电为辅。在海外金融危机导致的全球需求收缩下，中国出口受到冲击，经济增长亟需从扩大内需角度打开局面。2009年1月中国出口同比进入两位数负增长，拖累2009年一季度GDP同比降速至6.4%。政府快速应对，包括投资于基建与地产“四万亿计划”，以及2009年6月出台的汽车家电“以旧换新”方案。该轮“以旧换新”，消费刺激拉动供给更新的特征明显。思路上主要通过推动住户汽车与家电的更新换代，促使上游制造业企业消化库存，出清旧产能，创造新需求。政策首先在北京、上海、天津、江苏、浙江等消费力较强、汽车及家电保有量较高的地区试点，汽车政策以购置税减免与报废补贴为主，家电政策则聚焦于以旧换新与“下乡”。政策资金均以财政补贴形式落地，其中汽车安排50亿元，家电安排20亿元，其中中央财政出大头“包干”，财政部在同期印发的《家电下乡操作细则》中表明中央与省级财政各负担资金80%及20%。财政撬动作用显著。据发改委统计2010年汽车及家电两项补贴政策共拉动消费1700多亿元，约占2010年社零的1%，根据最初70亿元的中央财政补贴计划，本轮财政对消费的撬动效果可达1：24。这一方面是因为当时住户汽车及家电渗透率不高，需求空间较大，另一方面是居民杠杆率偏低，消费潜力高。市场方面，汽车、家电板块受政策出台短期的提振有限，但中期业绩催生的市场超额收益亮眼。2009年年中政策落地后一个月市场尚处观望期，汽车与家电并未跑赢大市。但随着政策落地加速推进，居民消费对供给的更新拉动逐步体现在企业业绩上，加之政策延续预期支撑，汽车及家电板块逐步走强，6个月回报率在各行业中领先。2022年9月，超低利率支持下的设备更新改造。在出口增速下滑、需求不足、投资谨慎的背景下，2022年9月7日，国常会提出要“支持经济社会发展薄弱领域设备更新改造”；9月13日，国常会再次强调推进设备更新改造的重要性；仅仅时隔15天后，设备更新改造专项再贷款便正式浮出了水面——由货币财政联动向制造业、社会服务领域和中小微企业、个体工商户等设备更新改造提供贷款。设备更新改造贷款重点支持领域有哪些？高校+医疗为主。该设备更新改造贷款的支持方向包括教育、卫生健康、充电桩、新型基础设施、产业数字化、重点领域节能降碳改造升级等10个重点领域。设备更新改造贷款多大程度上支持企业？2022年设备更新改造专项再贷款提供支持的形式为：商业银行以不高于3.2%的利率向企业发放贷款，其中中央财政为贷款主体贴息2.5%，这也就意味着更新改造设备的贷款主体实际贷款成本将低于0.7%。在此机制的作用下，当时预计释放出的贷款总体规模达约1.7万亿元。设备更新改造专项再贷款“现身”后，企业贷款需求起、但制造业投资的改善相对滞后。受益于中央财政的贴息，2022年9月的设备更新改造政策促进了相关贷款主体实际贷款成本的降低，由此也推高了企业贷款的需求。然而，在设备更新改造政策出台后，短期内制造业投资并未出现明显改善，开启投资增速上行拐点的时间要略微滞后一些。不过市场更注重预期，与设备更新改造支持的相关板块表现不错。无论是2022年9月7日国常会对支持设备改造的政策定调、还是28日央行财政对设备更新改造专项再贷款的正式“官宣”，都并未明显提升股市活跃度。不过相较之下，与设备更新改造政策相关的一些板块股市表现确实要“更胜一筹”，其中医药、机械设备、环保等板块股市都在上涨。风险提示：设备更新政策出台落地节奏放缓或刺激效果不及预期，导致经济复苏偏慢；海外经济体提前显著进入衰退，国内出口超预期萎缩。', 'content': '今年开年的首次中央财经委会议比较特殊。这种特殊性主要表现在两个方面：一是时点上，这次中财委会议和早前召开的深改委会议的会期间隔很短——仅4天，而此前一般是1至2周；二是议题上很特殊——设备更新和“以旧换新”。而中财委作为党领导经济的核心决策议事机构，以往主要关注的是全局性、战略性和长期性的问题。我们认为这至少透露了两个重要的信息；今年设备更新相关的制造业投资将是稳经济的重要补充，而消费可能会受到更多的重视。市场可能更加关心的是怎么干？我们梳理了历史上内外需求较弱的情况下国家求“新”的历史经验，其中2009年6月汽车、家电更新和2022年9月设备更新改造具备一定的参考意义，我们认为至少也有三点启示值得关注：一是资金来源上中央是主力，2009年中央财政在需求补贴中占比超过80%，2022年挑大梁的则是央行和财政部；二是消费端刺激的见效可能更快，尤其在相关领域的增长和通胀上，2009年政策刺激后，7月CPI见底，社零同比在高基数下稳步上升；三是居民和企业的杠杆率是影响政策效果的重要因素，2009年第二季度居民杠杆率为20.6%，政府以旧换新的补贴体量虽然不大，但撬动效果达1：24，而今可能需要政府在更大程度上发力。接下来重点关注本周的国常会以及接下来一个月内部委的后续部署。2009年6月“以旧换新”：汽车为主、家电为辅。在海外金融危机导致的全球需求收缩下，中国出口受到冲击，经济增长亟需从扩大内需角度打开局面。2009年1月中国出口同比进入两位数负增长，拖累2009年一季度GDP同比降速至6.4%。政府快速应对，包括投资于基建与地产“四万亿计划”，以及2009年6月出台的汽车家电“以旧换新”方案。该轮“以旧换新”，消费刺激拉动供给更新的特征明显。思路上主要通过推动住户汽车与家电的更新换代，促使上游制造业企业消化库存，出清旧产能，创造新需求。政策首先在北京、上海、天津、江苏、浙江等消费力较强、汽车及家电保有量较高的地区试点，汽车政策以购置税减免与报废补贴为主，家电政策则聚焦于以旧换新与“下乡”。政策资金均以财政补贴形式落地，其中汽车安排50亿元，家电安排20亿元，其中中央财政出大头“包干”，财政部在同期印发的《家电下乡操作细则》中表明中央与省级财政各负担资金80%及20%。财政撬动作用显著。据发改委统计2010年汽车及家电两项补贴政策共拉动消费1700多亿元，约占2010年社零的1%，根据最初70亿元的中央财政补贴计划，本轮财政对消费的撬动效果可达1：24。这一方面是因为当时住户汽车及家电渗透率不高，需求空间较大，另一方面是居民杠杆率偏低，消费潜力高。市场方面，汽车、家电板块受政策出台短期的提振有限，但中期业绩催生的市场超额收益亮眼。2009年年中政策落地后一个月市场尚处观望期，汽车与家电并未跑赢大市。但随着政策落地加速推进，居民消费对供给的更新拉动逐步体现在企业业绩上，加之政策延续预期支撑，汽车及家电板块逐步走强，6个月回报率在各行业中领先。2022年9月，超低利率支持下的设备更新改造。在出口增速下滑、需求不足、投资谨慎的背景下，2022年9月7日，国常会提出要“支持经济社会发展薄弱领域设备更新改造”；9月13日，国常会再次强调推进设备更新改造的重要性；仅仅时隔15天后，设备更新改造专项再贷款便正式浮出了水面——由货币财政联动向制造业、社会服务领域和中小微企业、个体工商户等设备更新改造提供贷款。设备更新改造贷款重点支持领域有哪些？高校+医疗为主。该设备更新改造贷款的支持方向包括教育、卫生健康、充电桩、新型基础设施、产业数字化、重点领域节能降碳改造升级等10个重点领域。设备更新改造贷款多大程度上支持企业？2022年设备更新改造专项再贷款提供支持的形式为：商业银行以不高于3.2%的利率向企业发放贷款，其中中央财政为贷款主体贴息2.5%，这也就意味着更新改造设备的贷款主体实际贷款成本将低于0.7%。在此机制的作用下，当时预计释放出的贷款总体规模达约1.7万亿元。设备更新改造专项再贷款“现身”后，企业贷款需求起、但制造业投资的改善相对滞后���受益于中央财政的贴息，2022年9月的设备更新改造政策促进了相关贷款主体实际贷款成本的降低，由此也推高了企业贷款的需求。然而，在设备更新改造政策出台后，短期内制造业投资并未出现明显改善，开启投资增速上行拐点的时间要略微滞后一些。不过市场更注重预期，与设备更新改造支持的相关板块表现不错。无论是2022年9月7日国常会对支持设备改造的政策定调、还是28日央行财政对设备更新改造专项再贷款的正式“官宣”，都并未明显提升股市活跃度。不过相较之下，与设备更新改造政策相关的一些板块股市表现确实要“更胜一筹”，其中医药、机械设备、环保等板块股市都在上涨。风险提示：设备更新政策出台落地节奏放缓或刺激效果不及预期，导致经济复苏偏慢；海外经济体提前显著进入衰退，国内出口超预期萎缩。', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': 0.07054785639047623, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'U6P6MC7EVA9G6KMKKP8EO8M1EBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:10:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'U6P6MC7EVA9G6KMKKP8EO8M1EBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6047bd35-0ae7-5bc9-8820-10ffed648c04'), 'title': 'Domestic high-frequency indicator tracking (Issue 7, 2024)', 'author': 'Z Honghu Ali Ang,Amber Zhou', 'orgName': '海通国际证券集团有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001968', 'orgSName': '海通国际', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk9nWD5TVOUq/oqQHgf4jJhg=', 'researcher': 'Zhonghua Liang,Amber Zhou', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000406832', '11000355042'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk9nWD5TVOUq/oqQHgf4jJhg=', 'site': 'Haitong International Securities Group Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '海通国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623579431_1.pdf?1708963890000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623579431_1.pdf?1708963890000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Domestic high-frequency indicator tracking (Issue 7, 2024)', 'originalAuthor': 'Zhonghua Liang,Amber Zhou', 'originalContent': '春节后消费热度仍有延续，生产恢复相对偏慢。人口流动方面，春运返程已近尾声，人流量季节性回落。消费方面，服务消费仍相对亮眼；商品消费中汽车受促销等政策影响。投资方面，基建项目相对充裕，地产销售绝对值仍在历史底部。进出口方面，美欧外需一强一弱，出口或有承压。生产方面，传统型行业生产相对偏弱，其他行业已在持续修复。库存方面，煤炭补库，其他主要工业品库存也有所增加。价格方面，消费品价格季节性回升，工业品价格则小幅回落。流动性方面，美元指数再次回落。风险提示：稳增长政策不及预期。', 'content': 'After the Spring Festival, consumption enthusiasm continues, and production recovery is relatively slow. In terms of population mobility, the return trip from Spring Festival travel is almost over, and the flow of people has dropped seasonally. In terms of consumption, service consumption is still relatively eye-catching; among commodity consumption, automobiles are affected by policies such as promotions. In terms of investment, infrastructure projects are relatively abundant, and the absolute value of real estate sales is still at a historical low. In terms of import and export, foreign demand in the United States and Europe is strong and weak, and exports may be under pressure. In terms of production, production in traditional industries is relatively weak, while other industries are continuing to recover. In terms of inventories, coal stocks were replenished, and stocks of other major industrial products also increased. In terms of prices, consumer goods prices rebounded seasonally, while industrial product prices fell slightly. In terms of liquidity, the U.S. dollar index fell again. Risk warning: Policies to stabilize growth fall short of expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('21742a72-b2bd-533e-9f1a-c6fdb159a438'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9296205220744014, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'IQD71774Q4KT405NUQJJCHFUORVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:10:08 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'IQD71774Q4KT405NUQJJCHFUORVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0891a9bd-2497-58c8-9a58-ea40b34419a9'), 'title': 'Weekly observation of major asset classes', 'author': 'Pu Zulin', 'orgName': '正信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80019274', 'orgSName': '正信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk+SKdTsqsoYQY47fIjqdIr8=', 'researcher': '蒲祖林', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000438232'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk+SKdTsqsoYQY47fIjqdIr8=', 'site': 'Zhengxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '正信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623578246_1.pdf?1708957035000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623578246_1.pdf?1708957035000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly observation of major asset classes', 'originalAuthor': '蒲祖林', 'originalContent': '大类资产周评：美国1月PCE物价来袭，国内2月PMI关注经济边际变化策略概述1、美国1月货币政策会议纪要延续偏鹰，市场预期联储最早6月降息，美债利率震荡偏强，风险资产价格高位承压，本周美国将公布1月PCE物价指数和居民收入支出数据，同时出炉2月制造业PMI指数，关注经济数据边际是否走弱。2、国内救市资金持续稳定证券市场，但春节前后地产销售延续疲弱，经济复苏仍有压力，国内风险资产价格剧烈波动。短期货币供需中性偏紧，国债和企业债务融资需求维持高位，资金价格小幅下降。制造业产能利用率结构分化，外需改善内需疲弱，经济能否止跌复苏仍需更强宽财政政策刺激，关注本周公布的2月PMI数据是否确认拐点。投资要点金融市场与美联储展开博弈，预期和现实之间的矛盾左右金融市场波动，驱动大类资产价格走势剧烈震荡，降息周期中盈利/需求下行但估值抬升，风险资产价格上有顶，避险资产价格下有底。中国因内外需走势节奏劈叉，国内宏观需求疲弱但货币宽松，春节后宽财政有望进一步加码，给国内资产带来利多预期。大类资产配置方面建议回调波段做多风险资产（股票）和回调做多避险资产（国债）进行配置，权益风格预计成长占优；商品预计震荡分化，建议回调做多配置农产品和外需相关有色、化工板块，反弹做空地产和基建相关黑色板块；利率长期驱动下行但短期估值偏高，预计走势低位震荡，建议回调多十债、五债，或多短空长套利，美国实际利率止跌反弹，但市场反身性交易联储降息预期，贵金属价格短期调整后有望重拾涨势，建议回调多配黄金和白银。风险提示美国通胀和就业扰动、国内实体经济恢复不及预期、中东巴以冲突和红海危机扩散', 'content': 'Weekly Review of Major Assets: US PCE prices hit in January, domestic PMI in February focuses on marginal changes in the economy Strategy overview 1. The minutes of the US monetary policy meeting in January continue to be hawkish, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as early as June, and US bond interest rates fluctuate to the hawkish side Strong, high risk asset prices are under pressure. This week, the United States will release January PCE price index and household income and expenditure data. At the same time, it will release the February manufacturing PMI index. Pay attention to whether the economic data edge is weakening. 2. Domestic bailout funds continue to stabilize the securities market, but real estate sales continue to be weak around the Spring Festival, economic recovery is still under pressure, and domestic risk asset prices fluctuate violently. Short-term money supply and demand are neutral and tight, the demand for government bonds and corporate debt financing remains high, and the price of funds has declined slightly. The manufacturing capacity utilization structure is differentiated, external demand is improving and domestic demand is weak. Whether the economy can stop the decline and recover still requires more fiscal policy stimulus. Pay attention to whether the February PMI data released this week confirms the turning point. Investment points: The financial market is competing with the Federal Reserve. The contradiction between expectations and reality affects the fluctuations of the financial market, driving the price trends of major asset classes to fluctuate violently. During the interest rate cut cycle, profits/demand decline but valuations rise. Risk asset prices have peaked, and avoidance Risk asset prices have bottomed out. Due to the divergence of domestic and foreign demand trends in China, domestic macro demand is weak but the currency is loose, and fiscal easing is expected to be further increased after the Spring Festival, bringing positive expectations to domestic assets. In terms of asset allocation, it is recommended to go long in the callback band to risk assets (stocks) and callbacks to long safe-haven assets (treasury bonds). The equity style is expected to grow dominantly; commodities are expected to fluctuate and differentiate. It is recommended to go long in the callback band to allocate agricultural products and foreign demand-related non-ferrous metals. , chemical sector, rebound and short black sectors related to real estate and infrastructure; interest rates are driven downward in the long term but short-term valuations are high, and the trend is expected to be low and volatile. It is recommended to call back long ten bonds, five bonds, or long short short long arbitrage, and the US real interest rate has stopped falling. rebounded, but the market reacted reflexively to expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Precious metal prices are expected to resume their upward trend after a short-term adjustment. It is recommended to allocate more gold and silver after a pullback. Risks include disruptions to U.S. inflation and employment, domestic real economic recovery that is less than expected, the Middle East-Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the spread of the Red Sea crisis', 'authorid': UUID('aebc7166-97b8-5419-ad05-d62abbd6b41f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9055571835488081, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '33KH7T29F5I95OEKSC4194LDVRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:10:11 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '33KH7T29F5I95OEKSC4194LDVRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0c1b704a-b9b4-5a7d-8695-756c5d3255cf'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: Domestic LPR is asymmetrically lowered, and the U.S. manufacturing boom is on the rise', 'author': 'Li Ting, Huang Lei, Gao Hui, Wang Gongjian', 'orgName': '金源期货', 'orgCode': '80055522', 'orgSName': '金源期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk3td2rY+6rr4rF2gVBqF1mo=', 'researcher': '李婷,黄蕾,高慧,王工建', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000207840', '11000210457', '11000428834', '11000369911'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk3td2rY+6rr4rF2gVBqF1mo=', 'site': 'Jinyuan Futures', 'originalSite': '金源期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623578216_1.pdf?1708956504000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623578216_1.pdf?1708956504000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: Domestic LPR is asymmetrically lowered, and the U.S. manufacturing boom is on the rise', 'originalAuthor': '李婷,黄蕾,高慧,王工建', 'originalContent': '海外方面，美国2月制造业PMI扩张速度一年来首次超过服务业，连续几个月的改善表明制造商正摆脱长期低迷，而近期降息预期的减弱打击了服务业的前景预期。1月通胀数据超预期，就业还未出现转冷迹象，美联储最新会议纪要显示，官员担忧过早降息的风险，一致认为利率已到达顶峰，首次降息的具体时间尚不明朗。我们认为基准情景下，5-6月将开启降息周期，近期关注1月PCE数据。国内方面，2月降LPR不降MLF，意在稳地产、保汇率，且5年期LPR利率降幅为历史新高，体现了地产需求端疲软、政策托举的紧迫性及力度，但目前实际利率仍然偏高，对地产销售的刺激效果可能有限，预计未来LPR仍有进一步下降空间。春节后一周，股市反弹，债券收益率下行，两者驱动主要由为货币宽松落地、经济减速暂缓。目前国内市场对经济基本面恶化的定价已经结束，后续市场或将博弈政策预期，关注三月即将召开的全国两会。风险因素：国内政策不及预期，地产修复不及预期，美国经济衰退超预期，地缘政治冲突加剧。', 'content': \"Overseas, the expansion rate of the U.S. manufacturing PMI in February exceeded that of the service industry for the first time in a year. Several consecutive months of improvement indicate that manufacturers are emerging from a long-term downturn, while the weakening of recent interest rate cut expectations has hit the outlook for the service industry. Inflation data in January exceeded expectations, and employment showed no sign of cooling. Minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting showed that officials were worried about the risk of cutting interest rates prematurely and agreed that interest rates had reached their peak. The specific time for the first interest rate cut was still unclear. We believe that under the baseline scenario, the interest rate cut cycle will begin in May-June, and we will pay attention to January PCE data in the near future. Domestically, the LPR was lowered in February without lowering the MLF, which was intended to stabilize real estate and protect the exchange rate. The 5-year LPR interest rate dropped to a record high, reflecting the weakness of the real estate demand side and the urgency and intensity of policy support. However, the current actual interest rate It is still on the high side, and the stimulating effect on real estate sales may be limited. It is expected that LPR will still have room for further decline in the future. A week after the Spring Festival, the stock market rebounded and bond yields fell, both driven mainly by the implementation of monetary easing and the pause in economic slowdown. At present, the domestic market's pricing of the deterioration of economic fundamentals has ended, and the subsequent market may game policy expectations and pay attention to the upcoming National Two Sessions in March. Risk factors: Domestic policies fall short of expectations, real estate recovery falls short of expectations, the U.S. economic recession exceeds expectations, and geopolitical conflicts intensify.\", 'authorid': UUID('031c3f63-fc61-5961-a12a-0ada8999feda'), 'sentimentScore': -0.22829574346542358, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'UOQ7VEIHABJHOV4C68K4K8BV4NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:10:13 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'UOQ7VEIHABJHOV4C68K4K8BV4NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b4e49013-c774-5bc3-ab63-004833c77b81'), 'title': 'Macro Interest Rate Chart 174: Entering the Interest Rate Cut Cycle', 'author': 'Xu Wenyu', 'orgName': '华泰期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80055521', 'orgSName': '华泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGykyygJ9vXk4iZIdSk7Q8nkPU=', 'researcher': '徐闻宇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000194620'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGykyygJ9vXk4iZIdSk7Q8nkPU=', 'site': 'Huatai Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623578186_1.pdf?1708955915000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623578186_1.pdf?1708955915000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Interest Rate Chart 174: Entering the Interest Rate Cut Cycle', 'originalAuthor': '徐闻宇', 'originalContent': '策略摘要2月央行终于调降了5年期LPR利率，相比较此前5-10个BP的降息超预期，但相比较海外25个BP的幅度仅是正常，我们预计中国央行已经开启了降息周期。在这个降息周期中，将进行风险的释放。关注短期风险和长期资产创造的机会，维持对收益率曲线陡峭化的判断。核心观点市场分析国内：LPR超预期降息，预期只是开始。1）货币政策：本周央行进行4270亿元逆回购操作，净回笼7550亿元；五年期LPR下调25个基点。2）宏观政策：中央深改委强调增强土地要素对优势地区高质量发展保障能力。3）行业政策：证监会或加大对拟上市企业督导检查力度，对财务造假公司出清力度，完善行业机构监管模式。4）经济数据：1月70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降城市个数减少。海外：央行暂不降息，科技热情继续飞奔。1）货币政策：美联储会议纪要显示官员担心过快降息、担心通胀下降停滞；多位官员警告过快降息风险；欧央行会议纪要显示，讨论降息为时过早。2）经济数据：美国2月Markit制造业PMI初值51.5，创17个月新高，服务业PMI初值51.3，创三个月新低，1月成屋销售总数年化400万户，预期397万户；欧元区2月制造业PMI从1月的46.6滑落至46.1，德国降至42.3，法国回升至46.8，1月欧元区CPI从12月的2.9%降至2.8%，环比下降0.4%；日本1月出口超预期，同比增11.9%。3）风险因素：胡塞武装导弹袭击两艘美国船只；美国六大银行逾期超30天的商业房地产债务中，每1美元不良债务对应的平均准备金却从此前的1.6美元降低至0.9美元，上周30年期固定按揭贷款合同利率上升19个基点至7.06%；英伟达四季度营收、利润、一季度指引均超预期。策略持有VXM24，做陡收益率曲线（+2×TS-1×T）风险地缘冲突升级，疫情风险升级，欧洲债务风险', 'content': \"Strategy Summary In February, the central bank finally lowered the 5-year LPR interest rate. Compared with the previous 5-10 BP interest rate cut, it was more than expected, but compared with the overseas 25 BP rate, it was only normal. We expect that the People’s Bank of China has started an interest rate cut cycle. . In this interest rate cutting cycle, risks will be released. Pay attention to short-term risks and opportunities created by long-term assets, and maintain our judgment on the steepening of the yield curve. Core point of view: Domestic market analysis: LPR cut interest rates beyond expectations, and expectations are just the beginning. 1) Monetary policy: This week, the central bank conducted a 427 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan; the five-year LPR was lowered by 25 basis points. 2) Macroeconomic policies: The Central Commission for Deepening Reform emphasizes enhancing the ability of land elements to guarantee high-quality development in advantageous areas. 3) Industry policies: The China Securities Regulatory Commission may increase supervision and inspection of companies planning to be listed, clear out companies with financial fraud, and improve the supervision model of industry institutions. 4) Economic data: In January, the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell month-on-month, and the number of cities decreased. Overseas: The central bank will not cut interest rates yet, and enthusiasm for technology continues to fly. 1) Monetary policy: The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that officials were worried about cutting interest rates too quickly and the stagnant decline in inflation; many officials warned of the risks of cutting interest rates too quickly; the minutes of the European Central Bank meeting showed that it is too early to discuss an interest rate cut. 2) Economic data: The initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in February was 51.5, a 17-month high, and the initial service PMI value was 51.3, a three-month low. The total number of existing home sales in January was 4 million at an annualized rate, expected to be 3.97 million. Households; the Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell to 46.1 in February from 46.6 in January, Germany fell to 42.3, and France rebounded to 46.8. The Eurozone CPI fell to 2.8% in January from 2.9% in December, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%; Japan Exports in January exceeded expectations, increasing 11.9% year-on-year. 3) Risk factors: Houthi armed missiles attacked two U.S. ships; among the six major U.S. banks’ commercial real estate debt that is overdue for more than 30 days, the average reserve for every $1 of bad debt fell from the previous $1.6 to $0.9. Last week, the 30-year fixed mortgage loan contract interest rate increased by 19 basis points to 7.06%; NVIDIA's fourth-quarter revenue, profit, and first-quarter guidance all exceeded expectations. The strategy holds VXM24, steepening the yield curve (+2×TS-1×T) risks escalating geopolitical conflicts, escalating epidemic risks, and European debt risks\", 'authorid': UUID('ea5b1c8b-2069-5763-b3d4-70c9ba8cbb24'), 'sentimentScore': 0.007524266839027405, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GTBA6ROT6MT033H1933IS6QHLNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:10:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GTBA6ROT6MT033H1933IS6QHLNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('927a84a2-8bc6-5788-9b7f-2c37f143b4c0'), 'title': 'Macro monthly report: Pre-holiday reserve requirement ratio cuts and post-holiday interest rate cuts exceeded expectations. Prices and money supply improved.', 'author': 'Xia Haojie, Zhang Junfeng', 'orgName': '国信期货有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80095998', 'orgSName': '国信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk7T36GFPBIK9A/V6NF+j13s=', 'researcher': '夏豪杰,张俊峰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000178175', '11000444234'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk7T36GFPBIK9A/V6NF+j13s=', 'site': 'Guosen Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623578145_1.pdf?1708956937000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623578145_1.pdf?1708956937000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro monthly report: Pre-holiday reserve requirement ratio cuts and post-holiday interest rate cuts exceeded expectations. Prices and money supply improved.', 'originalAuthor': '夏豪杰,张俊峰', 'originalContent': '主要结论1月物价同比水平仍然不佳，由于冰冻雨雪天气以及春节消费，物价环比均有所好转。1月社融存量同比增速超过M2同比增速0.8个百分点，且M1增速较好；1月社融增量为6.50万亿元，为单月新增历史最高值；总体反映出季节性因素的利好，叠加人行货币政策操作的推动作用，货币供给结构性问题得到改善。1月官方制造业PMI较去年12月略有回升，但处于荣枯线下方，仍待改善；生产指数保持扩张且中型企业表现优异，但是购进价格和出厂价格双双回落、新出口订单已连续10个月处于荣枯线下方。“新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新”将启动，在当前“有效需求不足”的大背景下，可带动部分企业投资和居民消费。财政政策方面。根据Wind，地方政府新增专项债发行情况，2023年1月和2月分别发行4911.84亿元和3357.53亿元，2024年1月发行567.81亿元；截至2024年2月25日数据显示，2月计划发行规模为3465.88亿元。本月地方政府新增专项债发行有所加速，有助于发挥基建投资对固投整体水平的支撑作用。货币政策方面。节前全面降准落地，节后非对称降息落地，幅度、时点、操作规律等均超预期。本次降息幅度超市场预期，对宏观经济的政策刺激意图显著，或带动经济基本面改善。结合四大一线城市纷纷优化商品房限购政策，或有利于房地产需求侧改善，政策激励作用较为积极。汇率政策方面。人行超预期降息或可改善中国经济基本面。短期内，考虑到出口对弱势人民币的要求以及美联储降息后置等因素，在岸美元兑人民或震荡运行。中长期来说，随着年内美联储降息逐步兑现，考虑到2023年6月左右中国出口基数较低，对弱势人民币的要求降低，在岸美元兑人民币或稳步升值，其中7.0为关键点位，需关注美联储降息时点和幅度。房地产政策方面。节前四大一线城市纷纷优化商品房限购政策，叠加5年期以上LPR超预期调降，有望带动房地产需求侧改善。近期，“白名单”房企融资持续推进，人行PSL合计新增5000亿元，有望改善房地产供给侧房企流动性，带动新开工恢复。资本市场政策方面。随着证监会新主席上任，结合暂停新增转融券规模、全面开展“零容忍”执法以及召开多场专家座谈会，回应市场关切，资本市场稳信心稳预期政策频频落地。', 'content': 'Main conclusions: The year-on-year price level in January was still poor. Due to the freezing rain and snow weather and Spring Festival consumption, prices improved month-on-month. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock in January exceeded the year-on-year growth rate of M2 by 0.8 percentage points, and the growth rate of M1 was relatively good; the increase in social financing in January was 6.50 trillion yuan, the highest increase in history in a single month; overall reflecting seasonality The favorable factors, coupled with the driving role of the People\\'s Bank of China\\'s monetary policy operations, have improved the structural problems of money supply. The official manufacturing PMI in January rebounded slightly from December last year, but it was below the boom-bust line and still needs to be improved; the production index maintained expansion and medium-sized enterprises performed well, but both purchase prices and ex-factory prices fell, and new export orders continued It has been below the boom-bust line for 10 months. \"A new round of large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in\" will be launched, which can drive some corporate investment and residents\\' consumption under the current background of \"insufficient effective demand\". Fiscal policy. According to Wind, the issuance of new special bonds by local governments was 491.184 billion yuan and 335.753 billion yuan respectively in January and February 2023, and 56.781 billion yuan was issued in January 2024; as of February 25, 2024, data shows that in February The planned issuance scale is 346.588 billion yuan. The issuance of new special bonds by local governments has accelerated this month, which will help infrastructure investment support the overall level of fixed investment. Monetary policy. A comprehensive RRR cut was implemented before the holiday, and an asymmetric interest rate cut was implemented after the holiday. The magnitude, timing, and operating rules all exceeded expectations. The interest rate cut this time exceeds market expectations, and the policy stimulus intention for the macro economy is significant, which may lead to an improvement in economic fundamentals. Combined with the optimization of commercial housing purchase restriction policies in the four major first-tier cities, it may be conducive to the improvement of the demand side of real estate, and the policy incentive effect is relatively positive. exchange rate policy. The People\\'s Bank of China\\'s unexpected interest rate cut may improve China\\'s economic fundamentals. In the short term, considering factors such as export requirements for the weak yuan and the Fed\\'s interest rate cuts, the onshore dollar may fluctuate against the people. In the medium to long term, as the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate cuts are gradually implemented during the year, and considering that China\\'s export base will be low around June 2023 and the requirements for the weak RMB will be reduced, the onshore US dollar may appreciate steadily against the RMB, with 7.0 being the key point, which needs to Pay attention to the timing and extent of the Fed\\'s interest rate cuts. Real estate policy. Before the holiday, the four major first-tier cities have optimized the purchase restriction policy for commercial housing, coupled with the unexpected reduction of LPR over five years, which is expected to lead to an improvement in the demand side of real estate. Recently, the financing of \"white list\" real estate companies has continued to advance, and the People\\'s Bank of China has added a total of 500 billion yuan in PSL, which is expected to improve the liquidity of real estate companies on the real estate supply side and drive the recovery of new construction. Capital market policy. With the new chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission taking office, policies to stabilize confidence and expectations in the capital market have been implemented frequently in combination with the suspension of new securities refinancing, comprehensive implementation of \"zero tolerance\" law enforcement, and the convening of multiple expert symposiums to respond to market concerns.', 'authorid': UUID('01badbb2-8ea2-5c81-9a71-801c82db5e24'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6448626220226288, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'HT2IV8IDN3HT8GAMG8OQDS0V6RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:10:18 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'HT2IV8IDN3HT8GAMG8OQDS0V6RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b39c8938-bff7-586d-97f1-71f88b2a83b6'), 'title': 'Macro · Weekly Report: Domestic interest rates are cut sharply, the Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts', 'author': 'Zheng Jianxin', 'orgName': '国贸期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80004615', 'orgSName': '国贸期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGykzy+Zezf7Y/FyjWTwAw+2dQ=', 'researcher': '郑建鑫', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245638'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGykzy+Zezf7Y/FyjWTwAw+2dQ=', 'site': 'Guomao Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国贸期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623578116_1.pdf?1708956937000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623578116_1.pdf?1708956937000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro · Weekly Report: Domestic interest rates are cut sharply, the Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts', 'originalAuthor': '郑建鑫', 'originalContent': '观点展望后市：宏观层面多空因素交织，大宗商品短期或难见到趋势性行情。国内方面，尽管各类政策持续加码，但房地产行业仍未出现趋势性好转，弱现实的担忧持续存在，未来重点关注基建、三大工程提速后增量需求的释放。海外方面，美国经济的强韧性，尤其是近期制造业的回暖，将在一定程度上支撑商品需求，然而降息时点仍存在较大的不确定性，金融环境短期内将维持偏紧的状态，美元指数和美债利率的阶段性反弹将打击市场的风险偏好。地缘政治和供应端的扰动，俄乌冲突、巴以局势悬而未决，仍将对供应端带来扰动，同时需警惕国内部分行业过剩产能化解、两会期间安检升级等影响。核心逻辑（1）春节后大宗商品价格指数震荡运行，一方面，国内房地产表现低于预期，美欧央行对降息前景偏谨慎，压制大宗商品市场的乐观情绪；另一方面，由于国内煤炭减产预期等供应端的扰动增多，支撑部分商品。（2）MLF小幅超额平价续作，5年期LPR利率大幅下调。2月份LPR非对称降息可能的考虑，一是进一步支持房地产行业，当前房地产依旧困难重重，5年期LPR下调有助于进一步缓解房企融资问题，并直接利好购房者；二是降低长期实际利率，提高制造业企业资本开支意愿；三是配合广义财政扩张，两会后基建、“三大工程”有望提速，降低资金成本是政策协同的必要之举。展望未来，一方面，货币政策年内或有进一步调整的空间，在内需不足的基本面没有得到根本扭转的前提下，年内稳增长政策发力离不开货币政策的支持；另一方面，随着本轮降息落地，货币政策滞后效应之下央行和市场均需时间观察确认宽松对于经济和需求的刺激效果，而且1月PMI环比回升、金融数据好于预期，显示经济出现好转迹象，因此，短期内进一步调降利率的需求并不迫切。（3）美联储对降息保持谨慎，美欧经济数据喜忧参半。1）美联储1月FOMC会议纪要确认了加息周期的结束，但美联储官员对于通胀持续回落仍缺乏足够的信心，对于降息普遍保持谨慎的态度。我们认为基于1月公布的通胀、就业和零售等数据，并考虑居民资产负债表情况及财政情况，维持7月份开始降息的预测。2）美国2月制造业PMI数据回升、服务业PMI回落，其中制造业连续几个月出现改进，凸显生产商们正在摆脱长期以来的低迷态势。欧元区2月PMI数据喜忧参半，可能意味着欧洲经济的恢复仍将是一波三折的，然而通胀强韧性又限制了欧央行过快降息的决策。', 'content': 'Viewpoint: Looking forward to the market outlook: Long and short factors are intertwined at the macro level, and it may be difficult for commodities to see trending prices in the short term. Domestically, despite the continued intensification of various policies, the real estate industry has not yet shown a trend improvement, and concerns about weak reality continue to exist. In the future, the focus will be on the release of incremental demand after the acceleration of infrastructure and the three major projects. Overseas, the resilience of the U.S. economy, especially the recent recovery in the manufacturing industry, will support demand for goods to a certain extent. However, there is still great uncertainty about the timing of interest rate cuts, and the financial environment will remain tight in the short term. The periodic rebound in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond interest rates will dampen the market\\'s risk appetite. Geopolitical and supply-side disturbances, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the unresolved situation between Palestine and Israel, will still cause disruptions to the supply side. At the same time, we need to be alert to the effects of the resolution of excess production capacity in some domestic industries and the upgrade of security inspections during the two sessions. Core logic (1) The commodity price index fluctuated after the Spring Festival. On the one hand, the performance of domestic real estate was lower than expected, and the central banks of the United States and Europe were cautious about the prospect of interest rate cuts, suppressing optimism in the commodity market; on the other hand, due to the expected reduction in domestic coal production, Waiting for supply-side disturbances to increase to support some commodities. (2) MLF was slightly over-priced and renewed, and the 5-year LPR interest rate was significantly reduced. The possible considerations for the asymmetric LPR interest rate cut in February are: first, to further support the real estate industry. The current real estate industry is still facing difficulties. The reduction of the 5-year LPR will help further alleviate the financing problems of real estate companies and directly benefit home buyers; second, it will reduce the long-term real interest rate. , to increase the willingness of manufacturing companies to spend capital; thirdly, in line with broad fiscal expansion, infrastructure construction and the \"three major projects\" are expected to accelerate after the two sessions, and reducing capital costs is a necessary policy coordination move. Looking to the future, on the one hand, there may be room for further adjustments to monetary policy during the year. On the premise that the fundamentals of insufficient domestic demand have not been fundamentally reversed, the policy to stabilize growth during the year cannot be achieved without the support of monetary policy; on the other hand, as the With the implementation of this round of interest rate cuts, both the central bank and the market need time to observe and confirm the stimulating effect of easing on the economy and demand due to the lagging effect of monetary policy. Moreover, the PMI rebounded month-on-month in January and financial data were better than expected, showing signs of improvement in the economy. Therefore, in the short term The need for further interest rate cuts is not urgent. (3) The Federal Reserve remains cautious about cutting interest rates, and economic data from the United States and Europe are mixed. 1) The minutes of the Federal Reserve\\'s January FOMC meeting confirmed the end of the interest rate hike cycle, but Fed officials still lack sufficient confidence in the continued decline in inflation and are generally cautious about cutting interest rates. We believe that based on the inflation, employment and retail sales data released in January, and taking into account residents\\' balance sheet conditions and fiscal conditions, we maintain our forecast of interest rate cuts starting in July. 2) The U.S. manufacturing PMI data rebounded and the service industry PMI fell back in February. The manufacturing industry has improved for several consecutive months, highlighting that manufacturers are emerging from a long-term downturn. The Eurozone\\'s February PMI data is mixed, which may mean that the recovery of the European economy will still have twists and turns. However, the strong resilience of inflation limits the European Central Bank\\'s decision to cut interest rates too quickly.', 'authorid': UUID('a9121ac9-9180-5a0d-b04f-77adb31c9370'), 'sentimentScore': 0.7219498828053474, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'L7U3ATLHPPHOUMJE0RDJBRRQCJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:10:41 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'L7U3ATLHPPHOUMJE0RDJBRRQCJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5897d37c-a536-5104-b597-5ffb81e03c5c'), 'title': 'Comments on financial data in January: High loan growth supported new social financing scale to a new high, M1 improved significantly, but sustainability still needs to be observed', 'author': 'Yuan Haixia, Zhang Lin, Zhang Kun, Yan Xiang', 'orgName': '中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80002154', 'orgSName': '中诚信国际', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk2TfohV44SVw4Aqh+G5tvmM=', 'researcher': '袁海霞,张林,张堃,燕翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000241949', '11000270239', '11000395438', '11000455541'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk2TfohV44SVw4Aqh+G5tvmM=', 'site': 'China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中诚信国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623575630_1.pdf?1708961560000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623575630_1.pdf?1708961560000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on financial data in January: High loan growth supported new social financing scale to a new high, M1 improved significantly, but sustainability still needs to be observed', 'originalAuthor': '袁海霞,张林,张堃,燕翔', 'originalContent': '新增贷款高于预期，支撑单月社融新增规模创历史新高； 政府债券融资占比回落， 社融结构有所改善。 1 月新增社融 6.5 万亿，同比多增 5061 亿元， 显著高于市场预期的 5.8 万亿， 并创下有统计以来单月新增社融规模的新高；存量社融增速为 9.5%， 与上月持平，与我们此前预期一致。从表内融资看， 本月社融口径新增人民币贷款 4.84 万亿元， 取得信贷开门红， 在去年同期高基数下仅同比少增913亿。从表外融资看，未贴现银行承兑汇票增加5635亿元，同比多增 2672 亿元，或由于年初信贷投放较高情况下票据冲量动力减弱而导致； 信托贷款增加 732 亿元，同比多增 794 亿元；委托贷款减少 359 亿元，同比多减 943 亿元。从直接融资看， 政府债券净融资额为 2947 亿元，同比减少 1193 亿元， 或与同期 PSL 集中投放、增发国债资金落地，导致政府债券发行节奏放缓有关；企业债券净融资额 4835 亿元，同比多增 3197 亿元， 一方面由于去年同期债市波动形成的较低基数导致，另一方面也受当前信用债利差处于历史地位，企业发债融资意愿有所提升的影响； 受年初二级市场持续低迷、 IPO 收紧的影响，股票融资有所走低， 本月新增 422 亿元， 同比少增 542 亿元。后续看，受春节假期影响， 以及PSL 发力、降息预期上升、房地产边际改善等因素影响， 2024 年 2月新增社融规模预计环比有所下降， 存量社融增速或仍将保持在9.5%左右。', 'content': 'New loans were higher than expected, supporting the new scale of social financing in a single month to reach a record high; the proportion of government bond financing fell, and the social financing structure improved. New social financing in January was 6.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 506.1 billion yuan year-on-year, significantly higher than market expectations of 5.8 trillion, and setting a new high in the scale of new social financing in a single month since statistics were collected; the growth rate of existing social financing was 9.5 %, unchanged from the previous month and consistent with our previous expectations. From the perspective of on-balance sheet financing, new RMB loans for social financing this month were 4.84 trillion yuan, a good start in credit. The increase was only 91.3 billion yuan less than the same period last year on a high base. From the perspective of off-balance sheet financing, undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 563.5 billion yuan, an increase of 267.2 billion yuan year-on-year, which may be due to the weakening momentum of bill momentum due to high credit supply at the beginning of the year; trust loans increased by 73.2 billion yuan, an increase of 79.4 billion yuan year-on-year. billion; entrusted loans decreased by 35.9 billion yuan, an increase of 94.3 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of direct financing, the net financing amount of government bonds was 294.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 119.3 billion yuan, which may be related to the centralized investment of PSL and the implementation of additional government bond issuance funds during the same period, which led to the slowdown in the pace of government bond issuance; the net financing amount of corporate bonds was 483.5 billion yuan , an increase of 319.7 billion yuan year-on-year. On the one hand, it was due to the lower base formed by the fluctuations in the bond market in the same period last year. On the other hand, it was also affected by the current historical position of credit bond spreads and the increased willingness of enterprises to issue bonds for financing; due to the impact of the beginning of the year Affected by the continued downturn in the secondary market and the tightening of IPOs, stock financing has declined, with an increase of 42.2 billion yuan this month, a decrease of 54.2 billion yuan year-on-year. Looking forward, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, as well as factors such as the strength of PSL, rising expectations for interest rate cuts, and improvement in real estate margins, the scale of new social financing in February 2024 is expected to decline month-on-month, and the growth rate of existing social financing may still remain at 9.5 %about.', 'authorid': UUID('8c21264a-6900-5e12-a274-10dc26b1314a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9270723909139633, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OBNNA0SA6LNN5UQISBMVOKQ377VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:10:43 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OBNNA0SA6LNN5UQISBMVOKQ377VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f628e91e-21ff-5c17-b1c8-be8516f944f4'), 'title': 'Industrial Economic Weekly: Economic recovery is expected to happen soon', 'author': 'Li Hao, Zhang Weizhen', 'orgName': '德邦证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000217', 'orgSName': '德邦证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGykw/kaBIhrGuoZlByKwNIpus=', 'researcher': '李浩,张威震', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000302631', '11000430135'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGykw/kaBIhrGuoZlByKwNIpus=', 'site': 'Debon Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '德邦证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623574510_1.pdf?1708942699000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623574510_1.pdf?1708942699000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Industrial Economic Weekly: Economic recovery is expected to happen soon', 'originalAuthor': '李浩,张威震', 'originalContent': '投资要点：近期观点1、过去多年里美国的移动互联网和创新药等科技发展一定程度上限制了全球要素生产率增长，而这一限制或是中国全球化的重要基础，中国的全新商业范式或将带动全球要素生产率重回上行趋势。2、本轮中国经济复苏的路径或由中低端消费和制造开启，价格机制形成正反馈后高端消费和制造的利润格局有望逐步改善。3、美国通胀粘性具有长期性，海外半导体周期回暖，美国信息业劳动力薪资有上行动力，服务业通胀易上难下。4、行业配置：关注股份行、保险、券商、新能源车、社服。宏观与中观趋势：1、预计人工智能的发展难以扭转美国科技创新周期回落带来的盈利增速放缓。2、美国科技、制造、地产或均衡发展，中低收入人群薪资增速或难大幅回落，美国通胀具有粘性。3、关注美国从长期衰退走向长期滞胀的可能，长期滞胀特征或将加剧美国经济短期波动。4、关注美国逆全球化趋势下，离岸美元融资或将走弱，人民币国际化进程或有提速。5、中国共同富裕与中低收入人群消费升级具有长期性。6、低回报时代重点关注供给格局带来的长期超额收益。7、传统行业国有化，国有企业市场化是中国经济效率上升的重要突破方向。8、高端制造供需缺口最大阶段或已过，产能过剩导致的利润下行或将改善。长期和中期行业选择：1、长期看全球经济可能走向杠杆周期的繁荣，通胀中枢拾级而上。我们建议关注传统行业中供给格局好的行业。2、全球科技产业将持续数据化、智能化演进，先进封装或接棒摩尔定律。3、中国去杠杆周期的尾声，可选消费或将具有显著超额增速。4、看好中国相对低价推动的全面出海，以及未来品牌和渠道优势带动的量价齐升。风险提示：美国就业超预期改善；中美关系改善不及预期；半导体周期再度下行', 'content': \"Investment points: Recent views 1. In the past many years, the development of technologies such as mobile Internet and innovative drugs in the United States has limited the growth of global factor productivity to a certain extent. This restriction may be an important foundation for China's globalization. China's new business paradigm may Drive global factor productivity back to an upward trend. 2. The path of China’s economic recovery this round may be started by mid- to low-end consumption and manufacturing. After the price mechanism forms a positive feedback, the profit pattern of high-end consumption and manufacturing is expected to gradually improve. 3. The stickiness of U.S. inflation is long-term. The overseas semiconductor cycle is picking up. Labor wages in the U.S. information industry have upward momentum. Inflation in the service industry is easy to rise but difficult to fall. 4. Industry configuration: focus on joint-stock banks, insurance, securities firms, new energy vehicles, and social services. Macro and meso trends: 1. It is expected that the development of artificial intelligence will be difficult to reverse the slowdown in profit growth caused by the decline in the U.S. technological innovation cycle. 2. U.S. technology, manufacturing, and real estate may develop in a balanced way, and the wage growth rate of middle- and low-income people may not fall significantly. U.S. inflation is sticky. 3. Pay attention to the possibility that the United States will move from long-term recession to long-term stagflation. The characteristics of long-term stagflation may intensify the short-term fluctuations of the U.S. economy. 4. Pay attention to the trend of anti-globalization in the United States, offshore US dollar financing may weaken, and the process of RMB internationalization may accelerate. 5. China’s common prosperity and the consumption upgrade of low- and middle-income groups are long-term. 6. In the era of low returns, focus on the long-term excess returns brought about by the supply pattern. 7. The nationalization of traditional industries and the marketization of state-owned enterprises are important breakthroughs in improving China's economic efficiency. 8. The largest gap between supply and demand in high-end manufacturing may have passed, and the profit decline caused by overcapacity may improve. Long-term and medium-term industry selection: 1. In the long term, the global economy may move toward a leverage cycle of prosperity, with the inflation center rising. We recommend focusing on industries with good supply patterns in traditional industries. 2. The global technology industry will continue to evolve toward digitalization and intelligence, and advanced packaging may succeed Moore's Law. 3. At the end of China’s deleveraging cycle, optional consumption may have significant excess growth. 4. We are optimistic about China’s comprehensive overseas expansion driven by relatively low prices, and the future volume and price increases driven by brand and channel advantages. Risk warning: U.S. employment improves more than expected; Sino-U.S. relations improve less than expected; semiconductor cycle declines again\", 'authorid': UUID('f36e6c53-cdea-5b4e-b7e6-89039329716a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.4242417812347412, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'IUAM87AAVJQ3G5NP49IVS07HT3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:10:46 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'IUAM87AAVJQ3G5NP49IVS07HT3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('185a8498-77cd-527e-9d8b-b9c29aa3d9c6'), 'title': 'International Macroeconomic Information Biweekly Report', 'author': 'Du Lingxuan, Wang Jialu, Yu Jia, Zhang Jingxin, Yi Cheng, Fang Heyang, Li Zemian', 'orgName': '中诚信国际', 'orgCode': '80002154', 'orgSName': '中诚信国际', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGykwznMf9UEeF3nelEyIC1DEA=', 'researcher': '杜凌轩,王家璐,于嘉,张晶鑫,易成,方菏阳,李泽冕', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000270344', '11000284640', '11000288237', '11000288238', '11000408032', '11000444044', '11000456832'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGykwznMf9UEeF3nelEyIC1DEA=', 'site': 'China Chengxin International', 'originalSite': '中诚信国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623574283_1.pdf?1708962107000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623574283_1.pdf?1708962107000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'International Macroeconomic Information Biweekly Report', 'originalAuthor': '杜凌轩,王家璐,于嘉,张晶鑫,易成,方菏阳,李泽冕', 'originalContent': '热点评论印尼大选快述计票防长普短博沃宣布获胜独立参选人集团在巴基斯坦大选中处于领先地位，各方将联合组网选举总理经济美国1月CPI超出预期2023年俄罗斯石油和天然气预算收入下降24%墨西哥夹行连续第14次加息土年共1月通账率创新高马来西亚去年经济表现不如预期全年增长3.7%南非玫府宣布最低工资提高8.5%至每小时27.58兰特IMF将巴基斯坦2024财年的增长预期下调至2%财政新加坡政府连续三财年收支平衡发布2024财致年预算案伊朗计划伊历明年税收收入增长49.8%2023年3-10月石油销售财致收入为37亿美元政治比利时安特卫普港因农民抗议而暂停运营俄军已完全控制乌军重要防御根纽美方接���提案推进受阻泰节期间菲律宾在南海挑不断由于军事援助减弱乌克兰军队撤出乌东重镇阿夫杰耶夫卡国际收支意大利正等待欧盟批准48亿欧元关税，用以支付天然气储存成表南非过去十年外资逸离超1万亿兰特最新大麦克指数揭露经济棉战今年初越南出口形势向好阿尔及利亚2023年石油储量在阿拉伯国家中排名第七油气总产量为1.94亿吃油气当量ESG土耳共2023年人口增长创十年最低中东地区在人工智能领线的投资及技能提升方面处于领先地位主权信用移迪将以色列主权信用评级下调至A2，展望调整为负面', 'content': \"Hot Comments Indonesian election quick vote count Defense Minister Pudang Bowo declares victory Independent candidate group is in the leading position in Pakistan's election, all parties will jointly organize a network to elect the prime minister Economy U.S. CPI in January exceeds expectations Russia's oil and gas in 2023 Budget revenue fell by 24%. Mexico raised interest rates for the 14th time in a row. In January, the payment rate reached a record high. Malaysia’s economic performance last year was not as good as expected. The full-year growth was 3.7%. South Africa’s government announced that the minimum wage increased by 8.5% to 27.58 rand per hour. The IMF lowered Pakistan's growth forecast for fiscal year 2024 to 2%. The Singaporean government has balanced its expenditures for the third consecutive fiscal year and released the annual budget for fiscal year 2024. Iran plans to increase tax revenue by 49.8% next year. Oil sales from March to October 2023. Revenues of $3.7 billion Politics The Belgian port of Antwerp has been suspended due to farmers' protests. The Russian military has fully taken control of Ukraine's important defense. The U.S. proposal to take over Ukraine has been blocked. During the Thai holiday, the Philippines continued to challenge the South China Sea as military aid weakened. Ukrainian troops withdraw from Ukraine. The balance of payments in Avdeevka, a major town, Italy is waiting for the EU to approve 4.8 billion euros in tariffs to pay for natural gas storage. South Africa has lost more than 1 trillion rand in foreign investment in the past ten years. The latest Big Mac index reveals the economic war early this year. Vietnam's export situation is improving. Algeria's oil reserves will rank seventh among Arab countries in 2023. Total oil and gas production will be 194 million oil and gas equivalents. ESG Turkey's population growth in 2023 will be the lowest in ten years. Investment and skills improvement in the field of artificial intelligence in the Middle East In a leading position in terms of sovereign credit, Divide downgraded Israel's sovereign credit rating to A2 and adjusted the outlook to negative.\", 'authorid': UUID('a2c4b698-a492-5220-beba-42486291b20f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6005622446537018, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '7JNTRANO8O8NV9M1885LLB01KVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:10:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '7JNTRANO8O8NV9M1885LLB01KVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8fda3669-2c07-55ae-b51d-f17ee1e33bd3'), 'title': 'Comments on price data in January 2024: Price levels continue to hover at low levels, and policies to expand demand still need to be further developed.', 'author': 'Yuan Haixia, Wang Yuanhui, Zhang Lin, Zhang Wenyu', 'orgName': '中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80002154', 'orgSName': '中诚信国际', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk14Tc1u+q03v2CZx10XUsxc=', 'researcher': '袁海霞,汪苑晖,张林,张文宇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000241949', '11000270236', '11000270239', '11000380231'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk14Tc1u+q03v2CZx10XUsxc=', 'site': 'China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中诚信国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623574280_1.pdf?1708945423000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623574280_1.pdf?1708945423000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on price data in January 2024: Price levels continue to hover at low levels, and policies to expand demand still need to be further developed.', 'originalAuthor': '袁海霞,汪苑晖,张林,张文宇', 'originalContent': '受春节错位影响，CPI同比降幅扩大，节日效应带动CPI环比连续两个月回升。上年同期春节错位基数较高，1月CPI同比未能延续上月升势，由前值的-0.3%回落至-0.8%，但春节带动消费需求增加，CPI环比上涨0.3%，涨幅较上月扩大0.2个百分点。本月翘尾因素影响为-1.1个百分点，新涨价因素影响为0.3个百分点。剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比增长0.4%，较上月回落0.2个百分点，为2023年7月以来的低点，需求仍较为疲弱。春节错位扰动食品价格同比，节日提振消费需求，食品价格环比连续两个月上涨。上年春节位于1月且处于经济转向常态化的初期，推高了食品价格基数，本月食品价格同比下降5.9%，降幅较上月扩大2.2个百分点，影响CPI下降约1.13个百分点，环比连续两个月正增长，为0.4%，涨幅较上月回落0.5个百分点。具体来看，猪肉、鲜菜和鲜果价格合计影响CPI同比下降约0.78个百分点，占CPI同比降幅9成以上，是带动CPI同比回落的主要因素。上年基数走低及季节性需求增加，1月猪肉价格同比下降17.3%，降幅较上月收窄8.8个百分点，对CPI同比的拖累边际减轻，但仍位于低位区间，环比降幅较上月收窄0.8百分点至-0.2%；虽有雨雪寒潮天气扰动供给和春节提振需求等因素影响，但上年同期基数走高，本月鲜菜、鲜果同比价格均较上月有所回落，分别为-12.7%，-9.1%，不过鲜菜及水产品价格环比连续两个月正增长。非食品价格同比小幅回落整体保持平稳，节日效应带动非食品价格环比由负转正。1月非食品价格同比上涨0.4%，涨幅较上月小幅回落0.1个百分点，整体保持平稳，连续三个月位于0.5%左右，影响CPI同比上涨约0.32个百分点；环比由负转正，由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%。具体来看，服务价格同比上涨0.5%，较上月回落0.5个百分点，环比较上月增加0.3个百分点，为0.4%；消费品价格同比下降1.7%，未能延续上月回升走势，降幅较上月扩大0.6个百分点，已经连续10个月保持负增长，其中工业消费品价格由上月下降0.4%转为上涨0.1%，主要受能源价格的环比改善影响。总体来看，服务消费仍好于商品消费：受节前务工人员返乡及服务需求增加影响，家政服务和其他家庭服务价格同比分别上涨3.5%和2.4%，涨幅均较前值有所扩大，家政服务、美发和母婴护理服务价格环比分别上涨4.8%、4.6%和1.5%；假期出行及娱乐需求提振，旅游价格环比较上月增加4.1个百分点，为4.2%，飞机票价格环比12.1%，较前值增加11.7个百分点，但上年同期基数较高，旅游价格同比较前值回落5个百分点至1.8%。', 'content': \"Affected by the misalignment of the Spring Festival, the year-on-year decline in CPI expanded, and the festival effect drove the CPI to rebound month-on-month for two consecutive months. In the same period last year, the base of the Spring Festival dislocation was relatively high. The CPI in January failed to continue the upward trend from the previous month, falling from -0.3% in the previous month to -0.8%. However, the Spring Festival led to an increase in consumer demand, and the CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, an increase higher than the previous month. The monthly expansion was 0.2 percentage points. This month, the impact of tailing factors was -1.1 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was 0.3 percentage points. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.4% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and the lowest since July 2023. Demand is still relatively weak. The misalignment of the Spring Festival disrupted food prices year-on-year. The festival boosted consumer demand, and food prices rose month-on-month for two consecutive months. Last year's Spring Festival was in January and was in the early stage of economic normalization, which pushed up the food price base. This month, food prices fell by 5.9% year-on-year, an expansion of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI to fall by about 1.13 percentage points, a continuous month-on-month decrease. The two-month growth rate was 0.4%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Specifically, the prices of pork, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits together affected the CPI by about 0.78 percentage points year-on-year, accounting for more than 90% of the year-on-year CPI decline. They were the main factors driving the year-on-year decline in CPI. The base of the previous year was low and seasonal demand increased. In January, pork prices fell by 17.3% year-on-year, and the decline was 8.8 percentage points narrower than the previous month. The drag on CPI year-on-year was marginally reduced, but it was still in the low range, and the month-on-month decline was narrower than the previous month. 0.8 percentage points to -0.2%; despite the influence of factors such as rain, snow and cold wave weather that disrupted supply and the Spring Festival boosted demand, the base number for the same period last year was higher. The year-on-year prices of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits this month have declined compared with the previous month, respectively - 12.7%, -9.1%. However, the prices of fresh vegetables and aquatic products have increased month-on-month for two consecutive months. Non-food prices fell slightly year-on-year and remained stable overall. The holiday effect drove non-food prices from negative to positive month-on-month. In January, non-food prices increased by 0.4% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The overall price remained stable, staying at around 0.5% for three consecutive months, affecting the CPI to increase by about 0.32 percentage points year-on-year; the month-on-month increase turned from negative to positive, from the previous month. A 0.1% decrease turned into a 0.2% increase. Specifically, service prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and increased by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 0.4%; consumer goods prices fell by 1.7% year-on-year, failing to continue the rebound trend last month, and the decline was higher than the previous month. It expanded by 0.6 percentage points month-on-month and has maintained negative growth for 10 consecutive months. Among them, the price of industrial consumer goods increased by 0.1% from a decrease of 0.4% in the previous month, mainly affected by the month-on-month improvement in energy prices. Overall, service consumption is still better than commodity consumption: affected by the return of migrant workers before the holiday and the increase in demand for services, the prices of housekeeping services and other household services increased by 3.5% and 2.4% respectively year-on-year, both of which were larger than the previous values. The prices of housekeeping services, hairdressing and maternal and child care services increased by 4.8%, 4.6% and 1.5% respectively from the previous month; the demand for holiday travel and entertainment boosted, the tourism price increased by 4.1 percentage points from the previous month to 4.2%, and the air ticket price increased by 12.1% from the previous month. %, an increase of 11.7 percentage points from the previous value, but the base number was higher in the same period last year, and tourism prices fell by 5 percentage points to 1.8% compared with the previous value.\", 'authorid': UUID('f927025c-b26f-523b-91ba-999609796973'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9117338992655277, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '0EDQNIJTKUE1DCJPA21P8O1H43VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:10:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '0EDQNIJTKUE1DCJPA21P8O1H43VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0bb77c22-6006-53f2-aa6b-af7cb13d72b2'), 'title': 'Overseas Weekly Observation: “Cheap” Japan!', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Chen Dafei, Zhao Yu', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGykxeUo/Gy1G0nHBL8h8A24U8=', 'researcher': '赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000385631', '11000436531'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGykxeUo/Gy1G0nHBL8h8A24U8=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623573383_1.pdf?1708942055000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623573383_1.pdf?1708942055000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas Weekly Observation: “Cheap” Japan!', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇', 'originalContent': '2023年下半年，日本经济陷入“技术性衰退”，名义GDP跌至全球第四。疫后日本经济修复的成色如何，中长期能否摆脱长期停滞的困境？日央行政策正常化的“第三次实验”是否会再次中途“夭折”，其将如何处理“不可能三角”？热点思考：“廉价的”日本自2010年被中国超越之后，日本以美元计价的名义GDP一直位于世界第三，直至2023年被德国反超，跌至全球第四。2023年，世界排名前五的经济体的排序为：美国、中国（大陆）、德国、日本和印度，以美元计价的名义GDP分别为25.4、17.9、4.4、4.2和3.7万亿美元。日本相对于美国的GDP规模从90年代中期的72.6%下降至13.5%。日本经济的“倒退”是实际GDP低增长、通货紧缩和日元贬值三因素叠加的结果。日本的“倒退”在后疫情时代明显加速，这主要归因于更低的通胀和偏弱的日元。所以，“倒退”是名义而非实际的，是暂时的而非恒久的。展望未来，随着全球通胀的收敛和日元汇率的均值回归，以美元计价的日本经济规模或将企稳、回升。后疫情时代，日元汇率大幅贬值，利差是主要解释。其中，日元兑美元汇率从103跌至150，跌幅近50%。日元名义有效汇率指数从105跌至74（跌幅30%）、实际有效汇率从103跌至65（跌幅37%）。2021年来，日元兑美元汇率的贬值可主要由美日10年期国债利率来解释，而美日利差的扩大则源于各自经济基本面及其派生的货币政策周期的差异。2024年伊始，美日经济周期和通胀趋于收敛，但货币政策方向或趋于分化，进而有可能推动利差和日元汇率转向。经济周期方面，美、日经济周期均处于“复苏早期”阶段。通胀方面，美、日核心CPI同比已经收敛，美国GDP平减指数甚至已经低于日本。虽然美联储何时降息、以及全年降息的幅度仍具有不确定性，但也不宜高估再次加息的可能性。日央行非常规货币政策正常化的“第三次实验”正在进行，YCC名存实无，但负利率维持不变，进度慢于市场预期。我们认为，日央行退出负利率的条件趋于成熟，压力在增强。今年上半年退出负利率的概率仍较高。日本的内外需均在好转，通胀的驱动力正在从输入性通胀转向内生驱动的通胀，工资-物价良性循环形成的可能性趋于上行。日央行的正常化或成为日元升值的触发因素。对于日央行而言，矛盾之处在于，日元升值必然会削弱2%通胀目标可持续性的基础。平衡利弊和放缓日元升值斜率的一个可选路径或是在美联储降息之前先退出零利率，因此时间窗口主要在上半年（尤其是春斗前后），后续能否进一步回到正利率区间仍需要走一步看一步。海外事件&数据：市场定价美联储首次降息推至6月，美国2月MarkitPMI表现分化美国2月Markit制造业PMI意外攀升，服务业和综合PMI均不及预期但仍处在扩张区间。美国2月Markit制造业PMI初值51.5，预期50.5，前值50.7；美国2月Markit服务业PMI初值51.3，预期52，前值52.5；美国2月Markit综合PMI初值51.4，预期51.8，前值52。日本年初出口有较为明显改善，制造业依然低迷，服务业景气度维持高位。日本1月商品出口同比11.9%，预期9.5%，前值9.8%下修至9.7%，主因汽车和芯片相关设备的出货量有所增长。日本1月景气度边际变化不大，服务业景气度较大，制造业依然低迷；2月制造业延续下滑态势，制造业PMI初值47.2，前值48。截至2月24日，市场定价美联储首次降息推至6月、概率为52%，全年预计4次降息，共计降息约100个BP。2月21日当周，美联储总资产规模小幅下降，美联储BTFP工具使用量微降。负债端，逆回购规模略升，准备金规模下降，TGA存款下降430亿美元。货币市场基金规模下降50亿美元。风险提示地缘政治冲突升级；美联储再次转“鹰”；金融条件加速收缩', 'content': 'In the second half of 2023, Japan\\'s economy fell into a \"technical recession\" and its nominal GDP fell to fourth in the world. How good is Japan\\'s economic recovery after the epidemic? Can it get rid of the predicament of long-term stagnation in the medium and long term? Will the Bank of Japan\\'s \"third experiment\" in policy normalization fail again, and how will it deal with the \"impossible triangle\"? Hot thoughts: Since \"cheap\" Japan was surpassed by China in 2010, Japan\\'s nominal GDP in US dollars has been ranked third in the world until it was overtaken by Germany in 2023 and fell to fourth in the world. In 2023, the world\\'s top five economies are ranked as follows: the United States, China (mainland), Germany, Japan and India, with nominal GDP in US dollars of US$25.4, 17.9, 4.4, 4.2 and 3.7 trillion US dollars respectively. Japan\\'s GDP relative to the United States has dropped from 72.6% in the mid-1990s to 13.5%. The \"regression\" of Japan\\'s economy is the result of the superposition of three factors: low real GDP growth, deflation and the depreciation of the yen. Japan\\'s \"regression\" has accelerated significantly in the post-epidemic era, mainly due to lower inflation and a weak yen. Therefore, \"regression\" is nominal rather than actual, temporary rather than permanent. Looking forward, as global inflation converges and the Japanese yen exchange rate returns to the mean, the size of the Japanese economy in U.S. dollars may stabilize and rebound. In the post-epidemic era, the Japanese yen exchange rate has depreciated sharply, and interest rate differentials are the main explanation. Among them, the Japanese yen-dollar exchange rate fell from 103 to 150, a drop of nearly 50%. The nominal effective exchange rate index of the yen fell from 105 to 74 (a decrease of 30%), and the real effective exchange rate fell from 103 to 65 (a decrease of 37%). Since 2021, the depreciation of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar can be mainly explained by the U.S. and Japanese 10-year Treasury bond interest rates, while the expansion of the U.S. and Japanese interest rate differentials stems from differences in their respective economic fundamentals and their derived monetary policy cycles. At the beginning of 2024, the economic cycle and inflation in the United States and Japan tend to converge, but the directions of monetary policies may tend to diverge, which may in turn push interest rate differentials and the Japanese yen exchange rate to shift. In terms of economic cycles, the economic cycles of the United States and Japan are both in the \"early recovery\" stage. In terms of inflation, the core CPI of the United States and Japan has converged year-on-year, and the GDP deflator of the United States has even been lower than that of Japan. Although there is still uncertainty about when the Fed will cut interest rates and the extent of the rate cuts throughout the year, it is not advisable to overestimate the possibility of another interest rate hike. The \"third experiment\" of the Bank of Japan\\'s unconventional monetary policy normalization is underway. YCC exists in name only, but negative interest rates remain unchanged, and the progress is slower than market expectations. We believe that the conditions for the Bank of Japan to exit negative interest rates are becoming mature and the pressure is increasing. The probability of exiting negative interest rates in the first half of this year is still high. Japan\\'s domestic and foreign demand is improving, the driving force of inflation is shifting from imported inflation to endogenously driven inflation, and the possibility of forming a virtuous wage-price cycle is increasing. The Bank of Japan\\'s normalization may become a trigger for yen appreciation. For the Bank of Japan, the paradox is that an appreciation of the yen will inevitably weaken the basis for the sustainability of the 2% inflation target. An optional path to balance the pros and cons and slow down the slope of yen appreciation is to exit zero interest rates before the Fed cuts interest rates. Therefore, the time window is mainly in the first half of the year (especially around the Spring Festival). Whether it can further return to the positive interest rate range in the future remains You need to take one step at a time. Overseas events & data: The market is pricing in the Fed\\'s first interest rate cut to be pushed to June, and the performance of the US Markit PMI in February was divided. The US Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose in February. Both the service industry and the comprehensive PMI were lower than expected but still in the expansion range. The initial value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in February was 51.5, compared with 50.5 expected, and the previous value was 50.7; the initial value of the Markit service PMI in the United States in February was 51.3, compared with 52 expected, and the previous value was 52.5; the preliminary Markit composite PMI value in the United States in February was 51.4, compared with 51.8 expected, and the previous value was 52.5. Value 52. Japan\\'s exports improved significantly at the beginning of the year, the manufacturing industry remains sluggish, and the service industry\\'s prosperity remains high. Japan\\'s merchandise exports in January were 11.9% year-on-year, expected to be 9.5%, and the previous value of 9.8% was revised down to 9.7%, mainly due to an increase in shipments of automobiles and chip-related equipment. There was little marginal change in Japan\\'s prosperity in January, the service industry was relatively prosperous, and the manufacturing industry remained sluggish. The manufacturing industry continued to decline in February, with the initial manufacturing PMI value of 47.2, compared with the previous value of 48. As of February 24, the market priced in the Fed\\'s first interest rate cut to be pushed to June, with a probability of 52%. Four rate cuts are expected throughout the year, with a total rate cut of about 100 BP. In the week of February 21, the total assets of the Federal Reserve declined slightly, and the use of the Federal Reserve\\'s BTFP tools declined slightly. On the liability side, the scale of reverse repurchase increased slightly, the scale of reserves decreased, and TGA deposits fell by US$43 billion. Money market funds fell by $5 billion. Risks prompt the escalation of geopolitical conflicts; the Fed turns \"hawk\" again; financial conditions accelerate contraction', 'authorid': UUID('5561e32c-d3e7-5cc0-a5d5-33281e23a919'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6750237010419369, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'JN33N1E68AM1DU7PBGA909LDS3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:10:54 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'JN33N1E68AM1DU7PBGA909LDS3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('80151ca3-c061-5850-88dc-d2499d602397'), 'title': 'Overseas Macro Weekly Report: Japanese stocks broke history for the first time, and many stock indexes hit new highs', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Fan Chengkai', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk5ZZNbdLJUkLkkcrE0Vy8Pg=', 'researcher': '钟正生,范城恺', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000369143'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk5ZZNbdLJUkLkkcrE0Vy8Pg=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623573374_1.pdf?1708940728000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623573374_1.pdf?1708940728000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas Macro Weekly Report: Japanese stocks broke history for the first time, and many stock indexes hit new highs', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,范城恺', 'originalContent': '海外经济政策：1）全球：IIF数据显示，全球债务总量再创新高，但债务占GDP比重下降。2）美国：美联储1月会议纪要增量不多，但市场维持“紧缩交易”惯性，关注3月会议前后市场风格切换可能。美联储多名官员发声，强调是否降息取决于数据表现，哈克称5月降息可能性不大。CME降息预期近一周继续降温，全年降息押注由3.9次减少至3.2次。美国1月经济领先指标连续第23个月环比下降，但不再暗示经济将陷入衰退。美国2月Markit制造业PMI创17个月新高，服务业PMI回落。美国初请失业金人数下降至一个月来最低。3）欧洲：欧央行会议纪要显示，决策者对通胀前景更加乐观，但认为讨论降息为时尚早。英国央行决策者辩证谈论降息预期，市场目前押注首次降息或在8月。欧元区、英国2月制造业PMI超预期回落，而服务业PMI均好于预期。全球大类资产：1）股市：全球股市多数上涨，日股首次突破历史，美股道指、标普续创新高。美国方面，纳斯达克综指、标普500指数和道琼斯工业指数整周分别上涨1.4%、1.7%和1.3%。宏观层面，美联储降息预期仍在推迟，限制了科技股涨幅，但经济前景仍然乐观，为股市的积极表现铺路。微观层面，2月22日，英伟达业绩靓丽，股价当日涨超16%，令标普500指数创2023年1月以来的最佳单日表现。日经225指数整周上涨1.6%，站上39000点大关，首次突破1989年历史高位的38957.44点。我们认为，相较2023年二季度，当下海外流动性环境更佳，日本经济“摆脱通缩”的概率上升，日本资本市场改革也由起步观察阶段进入到加速落地阶段。日股具备中长期配置价值。2）债市：5年期及以上美债利率回落，1年期及以上美债利率上升。10年美债收益率下跌4BP至4.26%，10年TIPS利率（实际利率）整周下跌1BP至1.96%，隐含通胀预期整周下跌3BP至2.30%。尽管市场的降息预期仍在推迟，但是市场对远期利率上行的空间出现分歧。3）油价回调，金价反弹，不同商品价格表现分化。原油方面，布伦特原油整周下跌2.2%，至81.6美元/桶；WTI原油整周下跌3.4%，至76.5美元/桶。美联储降息预期降温，或令部分投资者更加担忧高利率对经济的负面影响。4）外汇：美元指数整周下跌0.29%，回落至104以下；英镑和欧元升值，日元仍走贬。虽然美国降息预期有所推迟，但欧央行和英国央行也谨慎对待降息，且英国和欧元区制造业PMI表现好于预期，令英镑和欧元走强。日本方面，近期经济数据不佳，市场对日银转向的预期或出现下降，日元维持弱势。风险提示：美国经济和通胀超预期上行，美联储降息预期超预期推迟，国际金融风险超预期上升等。', 'content': 'Overseas economic policies: 1) Global: IIF data shows that the total amount of global debt has reached a new high, but the proportion of debt in GDP has declined. 2) United States: The minutes of the Federal Reserve\\'s January meeting did not add much, but the market maintained the inertia of \"tightening trading\" and paid attention to the possibility of a switch in market style before and after the March meeting. Many officials from the Federal Reserve have spoken out, emphasizing that whether to cut interest rates depends on data performance, and Harker said that a rate cut in May is unlikely. CME interest rate cut expectations have continued to cool down in the past week, with bets on interest rate cuts for the year reduced from 3.9 to 3.2 times. Leading economic indicators in the United States fell for the 23rd consecutive month in January, but no longer hinted that the economy will fall into recession. The Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States hit a 17-month high in February, while the services PMI fell back. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to the lowest level in a month. 3) Europe: ECB meeting minutes showed that policymakers were more optimistic about the outlook for inflation, but believed it was too early to discuss interest rate cuts. Bank of England policymakers have dialectically discussed expectations for interest rate cuts, and the market is currently betting that the first rate cut may be in August. The Eurozone and UK manufacturing PMIs fell more than expected in February, while the service PMIs were both better than expected. Global major asset classes: 1) Stock market: Most global stock markets rose, with Japanese stocks breaking through history for the first time, and U.S. stocks such as the Dow and S&P continuing to hit new highs. In the United States, the Nasdaq Composite Index, S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 1.4%, 1.7% and 1.3% respectively for the week. At the macro level, expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve are still being postponed, limiting the gains of technology stocks, but the economic outlook remains optimistic, paving the way for positive performance in the stock market. At the micro level, Nvidia performed well on February 22, and its stock price rose by more than 16% that day, making the S&P 500 index its best single-day performance since January 2023. The Nikkei 225 index rose 1.6% for the whole week, standing above the 39,000 point mark, breaking through the historical high of 38,957.44 points in 1989 for the first time. We believe that compared with the second quarter of 2023, the current overseas liquidity environment is better, the probability of Japan\\'s economy \"eliminating deflation\" has increased, and Japan\\'s capital market reform has also entered the accelerated implementation stage from the initial observation stage. Japanese stocks have medium and long-term allocation value. 2) Bond market: Interest rates on U.S. bonds with maturities of 5 years and above fell back, while interest rates on U.S. bonds with maturities of 1 year and above rose. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 4 BP to 4.26%, the 10-year TIPS interest rate (real interest rate) fell 1 BP to 1.96% throughout the week, and the implied inflation expectation fell 3 BP to 2.30% throughout the week. Although the market\\'s interest rate cut expectations are still postponed, the market is divided on the room for upward growth in forward interest rates. 3) Oil prices have corrected, gold prices have rebounded, and the prices of different commodities have diverged. In terms of crude oil, Brent crude oil fell 2.2% for the whole week to US$81.6/barrel; WTI crude oil fell 3.4% for the whole week to US$76.5/barrel. The cooling of expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates may make some investors more worried about the negative impact of high interest rates on the economy. 4) Foreign exchange: The U.S. dollar index fell 0.29% throughout the week, falling back below 104; the pound and the euro appreciated, and the yen still depreciated. Although expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut have been postponed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also cautious about interest rate cuts, and the manufacturing PMI of the United Kingdom and the Euro Zone performed better than expected, making the pound and the euro stronger. In Japan, recent economic data has been poor, and the market\\'s expectations for the Bank of Japan\\'s turn may have declined, and the yen remains weak. Risk warning: The U.S. economy and inflation are rising more than expected, the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate cut is expected to be delayed beyond expectations, and international financial risks are rising more than expected, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('1faba558-17d3-5821-ae0e-e52593c216b5'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7722945511341095, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'A4P3OPT1AO5C93APR5PR2P7A03VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:11:28 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'A4P3OPT1AO5C93APR5PR2P7A03VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2d2e005c-a480-5189-8258-b244d4435788'), 'title': 'High-frequency observation of China’s economy (4th week of February): Construction resumption needs to be continued', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Chang Yixin', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk/ZKm81+3jGJyCGS0xUvEK0=', 'researcher': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000387731'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=wENqeu1ti04XyLGyyeGyk/ZKm81+3jGJyCGS0xUvEK0=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623571922_1.pdf?1708940426000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402261623571922_1.pdf?1708940426000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'High-frequency observation of China’s economy (4th week of February): Construction resumption needs to be continued', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'originalContent': '本周为春节假期后的第一周，货物人员流动受寒潮天气影响，总体不强；建筑施工项目数量减少，资金困扰仍在，总体复工节奏不快。需求方面，房地产销售环比恢复，新房销售农历同比跌四成，二手房强于去年同期；外需表现偏强，港口吞吐量和海外制造业PMI均回升。1、节后货物、人员流动及建筑施工情况。1）春运：本周春运返程客流表现弱于季节性。据交通运输部数据，正月十一起，春运客流较快回落，全社会跨区域人员流动量农历同比负增长；其中，公路运输受寒潮影响更大，客流回落更为明显。2）地铁：二线城市地铁客运接近节前，一线城市恢复略慢。近7日（2月17日至2月23日）二线城市地铁客运量已恢复至1月均值的99%；一线城市地铁客运量仅恢复至1月均值的92%，人员回流速度慢于二线。3）货运：整车货运流量恢复至1月均值的62%，快递物流略强于货运，约恢复至1月均值的77%。4）建筑施工：项目减少、资金困扰仍在。据百年建筑网，节后全国工地开复工率13%，农历同比增2个百分点，但弱于21年同期的17.5%和22年同期的27.3%；从同口径数据看，2024年样本施工企业项目数量同比去年减少21.06%。据Mysteel，节后多数施工企业项目数量减少，以存量为主，资金情况略偏紧，工人返工和项目开工时间较去年略延后。2、工业生产：大多季节性回升。本周为春节假期后第一周，节后复工复产开启，化工、纺织及汽车轮胎相关的开工率大多较节前回升；春节假期减产不多的铁水及钢铁成材产量环比有所回落。相比于去年农历同期，化工、纺织、汽车轮胎开工率表现较为亮眼，但钢铁建材表现偏弱。3、地产销售：环比恢复。1）近7日（2月17日至2月23日），我们统计的61个样本城市新房日均成交面积环比恢复，农历同比跌幅约-40%，其中一线(-50%)>二线(-33%)>三线(-51%)>四五线(-34%)。2）年初至2月23日，样本城市新房日均成交面积累计同比增长-32%，其中一线(-25%)>二线(-30%)>三线(-41%)>四五线(-51%)。3）二手房方面，本周15个样本城市二手房日均成交面积较快恢复，农历同比增速由负转正，绝对水平仅次于2021年同期。4、外需出口：维持增势。1）港口吞吐量明显回升。年初至2月18日，监测港口累计完成集装箱吞吐量、货物吞吐量分别较去年同期增7.7%、14.3%。2）海外制造业PMI回温。1月以中国出口份额加权的全球制造业PMI回升1.2个点至49.5。2月美国制造业PMI初值升至51.5，连续两个月处于荣枯线以上。3）韩国、越南1月出口同比增长18%、42%。风险提示：稳增长政策不及预期，海外经济衰退程度超预期，地缘政治冲突升级等。', 'content': \"This week is the first week after the Spring Festival holiday. The flow of goods and personnel is generally not strong due to the cold wave weather. The number of construction projects has decreased, financial problems are still there, and the overall pace of resumption of work is not fast. On the demand side, real estate sales recovered month-on-month, new home sales fell 40% year-on-year, and second-hand homes were stronger than the same period last year; external demand was relatively strong, with port throughput and overseas manufacturing PMI both rebounding. 1. The flow of goods, personnel and construction conditions after the holiday. 1) Spring Festival Transport: The return passenger flow during the Spring Festival Transport this week was weaker than seasonal. According to data from the Ministry of Transport, on the eleventh day of the first lunar month, the passenger flow during the Spring Festival dropped rapidly, and the cross-regional flow of people across society experienced a negative year-on-year growth. Among them, road transportation was more affected by the cold wave, and the passenger flow dropped more significantly. 2) Subway: Subway passenger transportation in second-tier cities is close to pre-holiday, and recovery in first-tier cities is slightly slower. In the past 7 days (February 17 to February 23), subway passenger volume in second-tier cities has recovered to 99% of the January average; subway passenger volume in first-tier cities has only recovered to 92% of the January average, and the return flow of people is slower than in second-tier cities. . 3) Freight: Vehicle freight traffic has recovered to 62% of the January average. Express logistics is slightly stronger than freight, and has recovered to approximately 77% of the January average. 4) Construction: Projects are reduced and funding problems remain. According to the Centennial Construction Network, the resumption rate of construction sites nationwide after the holiday is 13%, a year-on-year increase of 2 percentage points, but weaker than the 17.5% in the same period in 2021 and 27.3% in the same period in 22; from the same caliber data, sample construction companies in 2024 The number of projects decreased by 21.06% year-on-year. According to Mysteel, after the holiday, the number of projects of most construction companies decreased, mainly existing projects, and the funding situation was slightly tight. The rework of workers and the start of projects were slightly delayed compared to last year. 2. Industrial production: Most of them rebound seasonally. This week is the first week after the Spring Festival holiday. The post-holiday resumption of work and production has begun. Most of the operating rates related to chemicals, textiles and automobile tires have rebounded compared with before the holiday. The production of molten iron and finished steel products, which have not reduced much during the Spring Festival holiday, has declined month-on-month. Compared with the same period last year during the lunar calendar, the operating rates of chemicals, textiles, and automobile tires performed relatively well, but the performance of steel and building materials was weak. 3. Real estate sales: recovered month-on-month. 1) In the past 7 days (February 17th to February 23rd), the average daily transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bnew homes in the 61 sample cities we counted has recovered month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of approximately -40%, among which first-tier (-50%) > second-tier ( -33%)>Third line (-51%)>Fourth and fifth line (-34%). 2) From the beginning of the year to February 23, the average daily transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bnew houses in sample cities increased by -32% year-on-year, among which first-tier (-25%) > second-tier (-30%) > third-tier (-41%) > fourth- and fifth-tier (- 51%). 3) In terms of second-hand housing, the average daily transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bsecond-hand housing in the 15 sample cities recovered quickly this week, and the lunar calendar year-on-year growth rate turned from negative to positive, with an absolute level second only to the same period in 2021. 4. External demand exports: maintain growth momentum. 1) Port throughput has rebounded significantly. From the beginning of the year to February 18, the monitored port's cumulative container throughput and cargo throughput increased by 7.7% and 14.3% respectively compared with the same period last year. 2) Overseas manufacturing PMI is recovering. In January, the global manufacturing PMI, weighted by China's export share, rose 1.2 points to 49.5. In February, the initial value of the U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5, staying above the boom-bust line for two consecutive months. 3) Exports from South Korea and Vietnam increased by 18% and 42% year-on-year in January. Risk warning: Policies to stabilize growth fall short of expectations, overseas economic recession is worse than expected, geopolitical conflicts escalate, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('149306d1-3d93-5b17-941a-f5aa3a00dc04'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8238728418946266, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'BD1MTEO92JFDU5L0TKJN17QA97VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:11:31 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'BD1MTEO92JFDU5L0TKJN17QA97VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('83772190-40c9-5fb4-8b39-e9bf75af838f'), 'title': 'Overseas Macroeconomic Weekly Report: Will the performance of the U.S. economy cause interest rate cut expectations to drop again and again?', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy53tbJ13Q75m/c3oUcttjVBw=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy53tbJ13Q75m/c3oUcttjVBw=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623568189_1.pdf?1708937894000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623568189_1.pdf?1708937894000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas Macroeconomic Weekly Report: Will the performance of the U.S. economy cause interest rate cut expectations to drop again and again?', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '本周（2.19.-2.25，下同）美国经济活动边际上行，不过消费边际下降，而出行活动有所回升；受制于高利率的影响，抵押贷款利率边际上升；美国劳动力市场超预期强劲；美国大选方面，特朗普周六在南卡罗来纳州的共和党总统初选中大获全胜，延续了共和党迄今为止在每次提名竞选中的连胜势头，轻松击败前州长黑利，进一步加大获得该党的总统候选人提名的概率。流动性方面，美元流动性边际下行。经济活动：美国经济活动上行。截至2月19日，美国WEI指数1.87%，较前值1.37%有所上升。亚特兰大联储预测美国2024第一季度GDP增速为2.87%；欧洲方面，德国WAI指数本周录得0.02%，较前值0.05%有所下降；瑞士WEI指数本周录得0.10%，前值-0.14%。需求：美国消费指数下降，出行活动回升。截至2月23日，美国红皮书零售同比较上周下降0.5%至3%。欧美订餐人数持续下行，出行活动回升，美国安检人数周环比上升4.93%。美国执行航班周均值为7.49千架次（前值7.43千架次），德国执行航班周均值为1.99千架次（前值2.13千架次），英国执行航班周均值为1.96千架次（前值2.01千架次），西班牙执行航班周均值为2.07千架次（前值2.13千架次）。地产方面：本周美国30年期抵押贷款利率上升至6.9%，前值为6.77%；15年期抵押贷款利率上升至6.29%，前值为6.12%。美国MBA市场综合指数周同比为-9.11%，前值为-10.98%；美国MBA市场购买指数周同比为-9.18%，前值为-16.7%。2024年1月，美国现有住房销售同比增长3.1%。季节调整后的年化销售率为400万套，创下了过去五个月的最高水平。销售增长主要集中在中西部、南部和西部地区，而东北地区的销售保持稳定。总的住房库存量达到了101万套，较去年12月增长了2%。目前，未售出的房屋库存为3个月，略低于去年12月的3.1个月。所有住房类型的中位数现有房价达到了379,100美元，创下了1月份的历史最高水平。就业方面：美国劳动力市场保持强劲。截至2月18日，美国当周初请失业金人数下降至20.1万人，低于预期的21.8万人，前值为21.3万人，是近一个月以来最低的读数，表明美国劳动力市场仍旧强劲；当周续请失业人数为189.6万人，预期188万人，前值188.9万人，显示就业市场能够提供的机会有所减少。持有失业保险人群的失业率为1.2%，前值1.3%。美联储官员密集发表鹰派言论，暗示并不急于降息。多位票委暗示对于过快降息应更加谨慎，需要更多通胀持续下行的证据来消除可能的上行风险。美国大选：特朗普涉及的刑事案件和法律审判对其竞选前景带来不利影响，而普京罕见为美国大选“发声”增添了更多变数。对于拜登而言，移民政策中多州增援德克萨斯，若拜登政府应对移民危机失败，等待他的将是支持率进一步低迷；截至2月22日，特朗普民调支持率为46.1%，领先拜登1.9%；赔率上，特朗普赔率43.6%，领先拜登16.2%。流动性：美元流动性边际下行。本周美国净流动性（美联储总资产-TGA-逆回购）边际下行。监测美元流动性的核心指标Libor-OIS边际下行，企业债利差略有上升。截至2月21日，美联储资产负债表规模较上周紧缩-521.91亿美元，其中国债减少310.74亿美元，MBS减少30.07亿美元。此外，欧美主要银行的CDS指数在本周边际下降，债券违约风险边际下降。各类银行存款指数波动较小。风险提示：美国经济快速陷入衰退；地缘政治紧张形势扩散，大宗商品价格大涨；金融风险显著暴露；通胀二次抬头。', 'content': \"This week (2.19.-2.25, the same below) the U.S. economic activity has increased marginally, but the consumption margin has declined, while travel activities have picked up; due to the impact of high interest rates, mortgage interest rates have increased marginally; the U.S. labor market is stronger than expected; the U.S. In terms of the general election, Trump won the Republican presidential primary in South Carolina on Saturday, continuing the Republican Party's winning streak in every nomination race so far. He easily defeated former Governor Haley and further increased his victory. The probability of the party's presidential nomination. In terms of liquidity, the liquidity of the US dollar has declined marginally. Economic Activity: U.S. economic activity is picking up. As of February 19, the US WEI index was 1.87%, up from the previous value of 1.37%. The Atlanta Fed predicts that the U.S. GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2024 will be 2.87%; in Europe, the German WAI index recorded 0.02% this week, down from the previous value of 0.05%; the Swiss WEI index recorded 0.10% this week, the previous value - 0.14%. Demand: The U.S. consumer index fell and travel activities picked up. As of February 23, U.S. Red Book retail sales fell by 0.5% to 3% year-on-year. The number of people ordering food in Europe and the United States continued to decline, travel activities rebounded, and the number of security checkpoints in the United States increased by 4.93% week-on-week. The weekly average number of flights operated by the United States is 7.49 thousand flights (previous value 7.43 thousand flights), the weekly average number of flights operated by Germany is 1.99 thousand flights (previous value 2.13 thousand flights), and the weekly average number of flights operated by the United Kingdom is 1.96 thousand flights (previous value 2.01 thousand flights) , the weekly average number of flights operated by Spain was 2.07 thousand (the previous value was 2.13 thousand). Real estate: This week, the U.S. 30-year mortgage interest rate rose to 6.9%, from 6.77% previously; the 15-year mortgage interest rate rose to 6.29%, from 6.12% previously. The U.S. MBA market comprehensive index was -9.11% on a year-on-year basis, and the previous value was -10.98%; the U.S. MBA market purchase index was -9.18% on a year-on-year basis, and the previous value was -16.7%. In January 2024, existing home sales in the United States increased by 3.1% year-on-year. The seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate was 4 million units, the highest level in the past five months. Sales growth was concentrated in the Midwest, South and West regions, while sales in the Northeast remained stable. Total housing inventory reached 1.01 million units, an increase of 2% from December last year. Currently, the inventory of unsold homes stands at 3 months, down slightly from 3.1 months in December. The median existing home price for all housing types hit $379,100, an all-time high in January. Employment: The U.S. labor market remains strong. As of February 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to 201,000 for the week, lower than the expected 218,000. The previous value was 213,000, the lowest reading in the past month, indicating that the U.S. labor market remains strong. ; The number of people continuing to apply for unemployment that week was 1.896 million, compared with the expected 1.88 million and the previous value of 1.889 million, indicating that the opportunities provided by the job market have decreased. The unemployment rate for those holding unemployment insurance was 1.2%, compared with the previous value of 1.3%. Federal Reserve officials have made a flurry of hawkish comments, suggesting they are in no rush to cut interest rates. Many voting committee members suggested that they should be more cautious about cutting interest rates too quickly and that more evidence of continued downward inflation is needed to eliminate possible upward risks. U.S. election: Trump’s criminal cases and legal trials have adversely affected his election prospects, while Putin’s rare “voice” for the U.S. election has added more variables. For Biden, many states are supporting Texas in immigration policy. If the Biden administration fails to respond to the immigration crisis, what awaits him will be a further slump in support; as of February 22, Trump’s support rate in polls 46.1%, 1.9% ahead of Biden; in terms of odds, Trump’s odds are 43.6%, 16.2% ahead of Biden. Liquidity: USD liquidity is declining at the margin. U.S. net liquidity (Federal Reserve total assets-TGA-reverse repurchase) declined marginally this week. Libor-OIS, the core indicator for monitoring U.S. dollar liquidity, fell marginally, and corporate bond spreads increased slightly. As of February 21, the size of the Fed's balance sheet shrank by -$52.191 billion compared with last week, with Chinese bonds decreasing by US$31.074 billion and MBS decreasing by US$3.007 billion. In addition, the CDS index of major European and American banks declined marginally this week, and the risk of bond default declined marginally. Various types of bank deposit indices fluctuated less. Risk warning: The U.S. economy is rapidly slipping into recession; geopolitical tensions are spreading and commodity prices are rising sharply; financial risks are significantly exposed; inflation is rising again.\", 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': 0.33008691668510437, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'M2F8SHO3LT2LH23O36SF3R1L5VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:11:34 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'M2F8SHO3LT2LH23O36SF3R1L5VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d596cafb-4c86-5b63-948f-b269f8a3dc6a'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the Fourth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission: The possibility of a new Jugla cycle', 'author': 'clever', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-26', 'encodeUrl': 'Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy56H/fjfAmtsqZ54/uZoHbME=', 'researcher': '高明', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000262937'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy56H/fjfAmtsqZ54/uZoHbME=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623566749_1.pdf?1708939494000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623566749_1.pdf?1708939494000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the Fourth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission: The possibility of a new Jugla cycle', 'originalAuthor': '高明', 'originalContent': '主要结论：2024年2月23日习近平主持召开中央财经委员会第四次会议，研究大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新问题，研究有效降低全社会物流成本问题。 这两项工作各包括三项重点。 叠加2023年下半年以来出台的一系列财政、货币、房地产与资本市场政策，有望在2024年驱动资本开支的加速，这是朱格拉周期启动的必要条件之一。涉及部委： 会议听取发展改革委、商务部、工业和信息化部关于大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的汇报，听取发展改革委、交通运输部、商务部关于有效降低全社会物流成本的汇报。住房城乡建设部、市场监管总局、铁路集团作书面汇报。1.大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新： 一是推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造。二是鼓励汽车、家电等传统消费品以旧换新，推动耐用消费品的以旧换新。 三是推动大规模回收循环利用，加强“换新+回收”物流体系和新模式发展。2.降低全社会物流成本： 一是优化运输结构，强化“公转铁”、“公转水”，深化综合交通运输体系改革，形成统一高效、竞争有序的物流市场。 二是优化主干线大通道，打通堵点卡点，完善现代商贸流通体系，鼓励发展与平台经济、低空经济、无人驾驶等结合的物流新模式。 三是统筹规划物流枢纽，优化交通基础设施建设和重大生产力布局，发展临空经济、临港经济。在中国，朱格拉周期的触发点往往是事件性冲击后的政策调整。 这包括1981年工业生产经济责任制； 1992年建立社会主义市场经济体制； 1998年住房制度改革，2001年加入WTO； 2009年大规模刺激计划； 2016年供给侧结构性改革与棚改货币化安置等。 相比较而言，通过改革开放（如责任制、市场经济、加入WTO）带动全社会投资的效果要明显好于扩大政府投资（如“四万亿”）。当前，市场期待的改革与开放措施包括财税体制改革、金融体制改革、房地产新发展模式、扩大内需政策、民营经济政策、中美经贸关系优化等。展望未来，中国有望开启新一轮朱格拉周期。 2020年新冠疫情爆发、 2022年地缘政治冲击升级，由此带来的全球能源冲击与超常规货币政策冲击共同形成了经济周期底部。 2023年随着疫情结束，中国经济开始了“波浪式发展、曲折式前进”的疫后恢复。 2023年下半年以来， 全球货币政策开始转向，中国出口增速也随之趋于回升；国内财政政策、货币政策、 房地产政策、 稳定资本市场措施不断出台，此次中央财经委第四次会议与即将召开的“两会”、党的二十届三中全会将是这一系列政策的系统集成与升级，合力之下有望在2024年进一步驱动资本开支加速。从周期形态来看， 未来中国的朱格拉周期上行斜率相对缓和。 主要原因在于经济结构演变与政策模式调整。产业结构层面，工业与建筑业占国民经济比重下降，第三产业成为主体。需求结构层面，人口的老龄化使得资本形成占GDP比重下降，消费成为总需求主体。同时，投资驱动型、出口导向型经济增长模式都开始退出。政策层面，经济增速目标权重下降，结构优化、宏观杠杆率稳定、就业与民生、国家安全、绿色低碳等目标的权重上升，因此政策扩张更为温和风险提示：1. 海外经济衰退的风险', 'content': 'Main conclusions: On February 23, 2024, Xi Jinping presided over the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Committee to study the issue of large-scale equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods, and to study the issue of effectively reducing logistics costs for the whole society. Each of these two tasks includes three priorities. Combined with a series of fiscal, monetary, real estate and capital market policies introduced since the second half of 2023, it is expected to drive the acceleration of capital expenditure in 2024, which is one of the necessary conditions for the start of the Jugra cycle. Ministries involved: The meeting heard reports from the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on large-scale equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods, and heard reports from the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Transport, and the Ministry of Commerce on effectively reducing logistics costs for the whole society. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the Railway Group made written reports. 1. Large-scale equipment update and trade-in of consumer goods: First, promote the update and technological transformation of various production equipment and service equipment. The second is to encourage the trade-in of traditional consumer goods such as cars and home appliances, and promote the trade-in of durable consumer goods. The third is to promote large-scale recycling and utilization, and strengthen the \"replacement + recycling\" logistics system and the development of new models. 2. Reduce logistics costs for the whole society: First, optimize the transportation structure, strengthen \"road-to-rail\" and \"road-to-water\", deepen the reform of the comprehensive transportation system, and form a unified, efficient, competitive and orderly logistics market. The second is to optimize the main corridors, clear up congestion points, improve the modern commercial circulation system, and encourage the development of new logistics models that combine platform economy, low-altitude economy, autonomous driving, etc. The third is to coordinate the planning of logistics hubs, optimize the construction of transportation infrastructure and the layout of major productivity, and develop the airport economy and port economy. In China, the trigger point of the Jugla cycle is often the policy adjustment after an event shock. This includes the Economic Responsibility System for Industrial Production in 1981; the establishment of a socialist market economic system in 1992; the reform of the housing system in 1998 and accession to the WTO in 2001; the large-scale stimulus plan in 2009; the supply-side structural reform and monetized resettlement of shanty towns in 2016. wait. Comparatively speaking, the effect of stimulating social investment through reform and opening up (such as the responsibility system, market economy, and joining the WTO) is significantly better than expanding government investment (such as the \"four trillion\"). Currently, the reform and opening-up measures expected by the market include fiscal and taxation system reform, financial system reform, new real estate development model, policies to expand domestic demand, private economic policies, optimization of Sino-US economic and trade relations, etc. Looking to the future, China is expected to start a new Jugla cycle. The outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020 and the escalation of geopolitical shocks in 2022, the resulting global energy shock and the shock of unconventional monetary policies jointly formed the bottom of the economic cycle. With the end of the epidemic in 2023, China\\'s economy has begun a post-epidemic recovery of \"wave-like development and tortuous progress.\" Since the second half of 2023, global monetary policy has begun to turn, and China\\'s export growth has also tended to pick up; domestic fiscal policy, monetary policy, real estate policy, and measures to stabilize the capital market have been continuously introduced. The fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission and The upcoming \"Two Sessions\" and the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be a systematic integration and upgrade of this series of policies. Together, they are expected to further accelerate capital expenditure in 2024. From the perspective of cycle shape, the upward slope of China\\'s Jugla cycle in the future will be relatively moderate. The main reason lies in the evolution of economic structure and adjustment of policy models. At the industrial structure level, the proportion of industry and construction in the national economy has declined, and the tertiary industry has become the mainstay. At the level of demand structure, the aging of the population has caused the proportion of capital formation in GDP to decline, and consumption has become the main body of total demand. At the same time, investment-driven and export-oriented economic growth models have begun to exit. At the policy level, the weight of economic growth targets has decreased, while the weight of structural optimization, macro-leverage stabilization, employment and people\\'s livelihood, national security, green and low-carbon goals has increased. Therefore, policy expansion has become more moderate. Risk warning: 1. Risk of overseas economic recession.', 'authorid': UUID('4c99e5c2-35f4-5a6e-b385-10f54e74e6aa'), 'sentimentScore': 0.4498304985463619, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'J106APHO06631KKB11RF0TJN1BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:11:37 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'J106APHO06631KKB11RF0TJN1BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3eea7ec7-5814-53ab-8df8-07e5f3ffb667'), 'title': 'Bi-weekly report: Re-introduction of policies to promote high-quality development, aimed at stabilizing domestic demand', 'author': 'Fu Yang,Liu Qingdong,Liu Qian', 'orgName': '中航证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000197', 'orgSName': '中航证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-25', 'encodeUrl': 'Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy57WajvjVoeqk/TbVeIaq+qA=', 'researcher': '符旸,刘庆东,刘倩', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177393', '11000268232', '11000424332'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy57WajvjVoeqk/TbVeIaq+qA=', 'site': 'AVIC Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中航证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623567399_1.pdf?1708940030000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623567399_1.pdf?1708940030000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Bi-weekly report: Re-introduction of policies to promote high-quality development, aimed at stabilizing domestic demand', 'originalAuthor': '符旸,刘庆东,刘倩', 'originalContent': '美联储上半年降息的可能性再次缩小2月21日公布的美联储1月会议纪要显示，美联储官员“一致判断政策利率可能处于本轮紧缩周期的峰值”，但同时大多数与会官员“都注意到过早放松政策立场的风险”。相对于此前市场预期的降息可能最早在上半年即会到来，美联储纪要的立场偏鹰。除纪要外，本周亦有多位美联储官员表态，包括威廉姆斯、杰斐逊、库克哈克等均发表了与美联储纪要相近的立场，即降息大概率不会在上半年出现，今年降息时点将视通胀和经济走势而定，下半年可能是合适的时点。本周美联储纪要公布及美联储官员集体发声偏鹰是继此前美国通胀超预期后，市场乐观预期受到的再次打压，截止目前，市场此前对于美联储最快将于上半年即开启降息的乐观预期已经明显消退。截止2月25日，市场预期美联储3月会议继续维持联邦基金目标利率不变的概率已经升至96%，年内降息幅度也从今年年初的预期降息150BP调整为降息100BP。尽管截止目前，美联储年内开启降息仍是大概率事件，但降息时点的延后，意味着美联储高利率维持的时间可能较此前预期的有所延长，全球大类资产的压力可能需要下半年才能有实质性减轻。重要会议适时召开，推动高质量发展，意在激发内需2月23日下午，习近平主持召开中央财经委员会第四次会议，研究大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新问题，研究有效降低全社会物流成本问题。在新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新方面，会议强调，实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策将促进投资和消费，利于当前和长远发展。政策需协同发力，提升先进产能比重，推动高质量消费品普及和废旧资源循环利用，提高经济循环质量。其中，设备更新上会议提到了生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造等领域，在消费品方面，会议提到了汽车和家电两个类别，同时指出其余耐用消费品亦在覆盖范围内。在降低社会物流成本方面，会议强调主要从运输成本、仓储成本、管理成本三个方面发力，并具体提到了“强化‘公转铁’、‘公转水’”、“优化主干线大通道，打通堵点卡点”、“鼓励发展与平台经济、低空经济、无人驾驶等结合的物流新模式”、“大力发展临空经济、临港经济”等领域。总体来看，本次会议讨论的两项重点议题，从长远来看，其核心的意义在于进一步促进我国经济高质量发展，从短期来看，将有利于进一步激发我国内需的提高，从而对冲当前经济因房地产行业持续下行而面临的增速压力。', 'content': 'The possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the first half of the year has once again narrowed. Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting released on February 21 showed that Federal Reserve officials “unanimously judged that the policy interest rate may be at the peak of this tightening cycle,” but at the same time, most participating officials “noted that Risks of easing policy stance too early”. Compared with previous market expectations that an interest rate cut may come as early as the first half of the year, the stance of the Fed minutes was hawkish. In addition to the minutes, many Federal Reserve officials also expressed their opinions this week, including Williams, Jefferson, and Kukhack, etc., who all expressed a position similar to the Federal Reserve minutes, that is, there is a high probability that an interest rate cut will not occur in the first half of the year. The point will depend on inflation and economic trends, and the second half of the year may be the right time. This week\\'s release of the Federal Reserve minutes and the collective hawkish tone of Federal Reserve officials are another suppression of the market\\'s optimistic expectations after U.S. inflation exceeded expectations. So far, the market\\'s previous optimistic expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates as soon as the first half of the year have become apparent. subside. As of February 25, the market expects that the probability that the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain the federal funds target rate unchanged at the March meeting has risen to 96%, and the rate of interest rate cuts during the year has also been adjusted from the expected 150 BP rate cut at the beginning of this year to a 100 BP rate cut. Although it is still a high probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during the year, the delay in the timing of the rate cut means that the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for longer than previously expected, and the pressure on major global asset classes may not subside until the second half of the year. There is substantial relief. Important meetings are held at the right time to promote high-quality development and aim to stimulate domestic demand. On the afternoon of February 23, Xi Jinping chaired the fourth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Committee to study the issue of large-scale equipment updates and replacement of old consumer goods, and to study the issue of effectively reducing logistics costs for the whole society. In terms of a new round of large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in, the meeting emphasized that the implementation of large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in policies will promote investment and consumption and be beneficial to current and long-term development. Policies need to work together to increase the proportion of advanced production capacity, promote the popularization of high-quality consumer goods and the recycling of waste resources, and improve the quality of the economic cycle. Among them, the equipment update meeting mentioned the fields of production equipment, service equipment update and technological transformation. In terms of consumer goods, the meeting mentioned two categories: automobiles and home appliances, and pointed out that other durable consumer goods are also covered. In terms of reducing social logistics costs, the meeting emphasized that efforts should be made mainly from three aspects: transportation costs, warehousing costs, and management costs, and specifically mentioned \"strengthening \\'road-to-rail\\' and \\'road-to-water\\'\", \"optimizing major trunk lines, and opening up \"Congestion points\", \"Encourage the development of new logistics models that combine platform economy, low-altitude economy, unmanned driving, etc.\", \"Vigorously develop the airport economy and port economy\" and other fields. Overall, in the long run, the core significance of the two key issues discussed at this meeting is to further promote the high-quality development of our country\\'s economy. In the short term, it will be conducive to further stimulating the increase of my country\\'s domestic demand, thereby hedging the current The economy is facing growth pressure due to the continued downturn in the real estate industry.', 'authorid': UUID('4742b007-903b-50d6-ade3-9921cbbf7a57'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6333024799823761, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'C4P20IT3T0J41FVHRQV1EDCM07VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:11:39 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'C4P20IT3T0J41FVHRQV1EDCM07VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('45ca7ce8-53bf-5330-87fc-ccc99e5cb924'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: The new stock market policy may usher in beta opportunities', 'author': 'Hu Shaohua, Liu Sijia', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-25', 'encodeUrl': 'Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy5xQOwXWzWko/XxvNXgBhe1U=', 'researcher': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249934', '11000257478'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy5xQOwXWzWko/XxvNXgBhe1U=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623566631_1.pdf?1708882424000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623566631_1.pdf?1708882424000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: The new stock market policy may usher in beta opportunities', 'originalAuthor': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'originalContent': '投资要点核心观点： 近期监管部门连续召开座谈会，出台一系列措施，稳市场促发展，股市8连阳，市场走势明显好转。根据目前信息，我们认为以下几个方面可能会有突破性进展：一是上市公司质量可能会有根本性的提高，欺诈发行等受到严惩， IPO数��减少，退市数量增加，上市公司投资价值显现。二是央国企市值管理加速推进，市值管理纳入业绩考核有望促进企业加大分红、增持、回购力度。三是平准基金呼声较高，监管部门可能会予以重视。四是稳市场态度坚决， 交易监管力度加强，并引导中长期资金更大力度入市，有助于提振市场信心。整体看， A股可能会迎来长期向好的β性投资机会，当然这些变革的难度很大，具体还要看实际进展情况。严把IPO入口关， 上市公司质量有望根本性提高。 从最近证监会座谈会传出的信息来看，提高上市公司质量可能是监管将加强的非常重要的一项内容。 1月24日，证监会副主席王建军表示，对于欺诈发行等严重损害投资者利益的违法行为，坚决重拳打击，让其“倾家荡产、牢底坐穿”，对参与造假的中介机构一体追责。 2月4日，证监会公布了近三年对欺诈发行、财务造假等违法行为的处罚措施，并表示坚持“申报即担责”，对相关违法案件从重从快处罚。证监会严把IPO入口关，加强对IPO企业的质量要求，有助于从源头上提高上市公司质量，出清不合格的上市公司。估计IPO的数量会下降，而退市数量可能会有较大增加。 未来上市公司质量有望得到根本性提升，上市公司投资价值显现。央企市值管理加速推进。 1月29日，国资委在2024年中央企业、地方国资委考核分配工作会议上指出，全面推开上市公司市值管理考核。市值管理纳入业绩考核有望促进央国企上市公司加大分红、增持、回购力度，形成提升经营效率，提高经营业绩的正向反馈。 据中证报2月22日报道，今年央企负责人业绩考核指标有望于近期落地，其中将增加市值管理考核相关指标，并按“一企一策”进行设计。 回购、增持数量明显增加。 据不完全统计，截至2月23日，当月新增回购预案达733家，已超过去5个月总和；同期当月新增股东拟增持计划193家，接近此前4个月总和。近期证监会积极回应市场关切，平准基金呼声较高。 证监会召开系列座谈会，表示将认真对待来自各个方面的意见建议，经过论证切实可行的马上就办，及时回应市场关切。 2023年8月至2024年2月5日，上证指数从3322点跌至最低2635点。 2023年年末以来，市场对成立平准基金的呼声较高，我们认为监管部门可能会对市场的重点关切予以重视。稳定市场的手段也并非仅局限于平准基金一种方式，其形式可能多种多样，比如“国家队”入市。从2023年10月中央汇金宣布增持ETF至今，股票ETF规模增加超3000亿元，宽基ETF增长居前。“国家队”入市有助于平抑过度波动、稳定资本市场，一定程度上或体现了平准基金的作用。短期内多举措集中出台，市场风险偏好明显回升。 开年以来至春节假期前， A股持续回调。1月29日至2月5日的6个交易日内，上证指数跌幅达7.15%，同期小盘指数跌幅更大。 在此背景下，证监会加大了政策出台的力度，增加与市场沟通的频率。 2月5日， 证监会发文称“严惩操纵市场恶意做空，对影响股市稳定运行、损害投资者合法权益的违法行为坚决查处”。 2月22日，证监会发布6份行政处罚书，重点涉及内幕交易、操纵市场等违法行为。交易监管力度加强有助于提振市场信心， 春节前后A股8连阳，市场风险偏好明显回升。风险提示：地缘政治风险；政策落地不及预期的风险；海外金融事件风险。', 'content': 'Key points of investment: Recently, regulatory authorities have held consecutive symposiums and introduced a series of measures to stabilize the market and promote development. The stock market has been positive for eight consecutive years, and the market trend has improved significantly. Based on the current information, we believe that there may be breakthroughs in the following aspects: First, the quality of listed companies may be fundamentally improved, fraudulent issuances, etc. will be severely punished, the number of IPOs will decrease, the number of delistings will increase, and the investment value of listed companies will appear. . Second, the market value management of central state-owned enterprises has been accelerated. The inclusion of market value management in performance assessment is expected to promote enterprises to increase dividends, increase holdings, and repurchase efforts. Third, there is a high demand for stabilization funds, and regulatory authorities may pay attention to them. Fourth, we are resolute in stabilizing the market, strengthening transaction supervision, and guiding medium and long-term funds to enter the market with greater intensity, which will help boost market confidence. Overall, A-shares may usher in long-term positive beta investment opportunities. Of course, these changes are very difficult, and the specifics will depend on the actual progress. By strictly controlling IPO entrance, the quality of listed companies is expected to be fundamentally improved. Judging from the information coming out of the recent China Securities Regulatory Commission symposium, improving the quality of listed companies may be a very important aspect of the strengthening of supervision. On January 24, Wang Jianjun, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, stated that we will resolutely crack down on illegal activities that seriously damage the interests of investors, such as fraudulent issuances, so that they will \"go bankrupt and sit in jail\" and hold all intermediaries involved in the fraud accountable. . On February 4, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the punishment measures for illegal issuances, financial fraud and other illegal activities in the past three years, and stated that it adheres to the principle of \"declaration means responsibility\" and will punish relevant illegal cases severely and quickly. The China Securities Regulatory Commission strictly controls the entry of IPOs and strengthens the quality requirements for IPO companies, which will help improve the quality of listed companies from the source and clear out unqualified listed companies. It is estimated that the number of IPOs will decrease, while the number of delistings may increase significantly. In the future, the quality of listed companies is expected to be fundamentally improved, and the investment value of listed companies will appear. The market value management of central enterprises has been accelerated. On January 29, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission pointed out at the 2024 assessment and distribution work meeting of central enterprises and local State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission that the market value management assessment of listed companies will be fully launched. Incorporating market value management into performance assessment is expected to encourage listed companies of central state-owned enterprises to increase dividends, increase holdings, and repurchase efforts, creating positive feedback that improves operating efficiency and operating performance. According to a report by China Securities Journal on February 22, this year’s performance appraisal indicators for central enterprise leaders are expected to be implemented in the near future. Among them, indicators related to market value management assessment will be added and designed according to “one enterprise, one policy”. The number of repurchases and holdings increased significantly. According to incomplete statistics, as of February 23, there were 733 new repurchase plans in the month, exceeding the total in the past five months; during the same period, 193 new shareholders planned to increase their holdings, which was close to the total in the previous four months. Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has actively responded to market concerns, and there have been high calls for stabilization funds. The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a series of symposiums and stated that it would take seriously the opinions and suggestions from all aspects, implement them immediately if they are practical and feasible, and respond to market concerns in a timely manner. From August 2023 to February 5, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 3322 points to a minimum of 2635 points. Since the end of 2023, the market has been clamoring for the establishment of stabilization funds, and we believe that regulatory authorities may pay attention to the market\\'s key concerns. The means of stabilizing the market are not limited to stabilization funds. They may take various forms, such as the entry of the \"national team\" into the market. Since Central Huijin announced its increase in ETF holdings in October 2023, the scale of stock ETFs has increased by more than 300 billion yuan, with broad-based ETFs leading the list of growth. The entry of the \"national team\" into the market will help calm excessive volatility and stabilize the capital market, which may reflect the role of stabilization funds to a certain extent. In the short term, many measures have been introduced, and market risk appetite has rebounded significantly. Since the beginning of the new year and before the Spring Festival holiday, A-shares have continued to correct. In the six trading days from January 29 to February 5, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 7.15%, and the small-cap index fell even more during the same period. Against this background, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has stepped up its efforts to introduce policies and increase the frequency of communication with the market. On February 5, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a document stating that it “severely punishes malicious short selling that manipulates the market, and resolutely investigates and punishes illegal activities that affect the stable operation of the stock market and damage the legitimate rights and interests of investors.” On February 22, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued six administrative penalties, focusing on illegal activities such as insider trading and market manipulation. Strengthened trading supervision will help boost market confidence. A-shares posted eight consecutive positive gains around the Spring Festival, and market risk appetite has rebounded significantly. Risk warning: geopolitical risks; risks of policy implementation failing to meet expectations; risks of overseas financial events.', 'authorid': UUID('f33028d3-8791-5b14-80ca-a862e2ba251a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9192827688530087, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'R60V6RT4A9CGVTOJO0JBA16SPNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:11:42 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'R60V6RT4A9CGVTOJO0JBA16SPNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e3c558dc-e291-5661-b83c-043176b98249'), 'title': '[Guangdong Open Macro] Changes in the ranking of land transfer income in various provinces in China from 1998 to 2023', 'author': 'Luo Zhiheng, Fang Kun', 'orgName': '粤开证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000118', 'orgSName': '粤开证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-25', 'encodeUrl': 'Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy51ZncQmZzFEomHNAtEjbOT8=', 'researcher': '罗志恒,方堃', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245432', '11000282034'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy51ZncQmZzFEomHNAtEjbOT8=', 'site': 'Guangdong Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '粤开证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623566576_1.pdf?1708880975000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623566576_1.pdf?1708880975000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '[Guangdong Open Macro] Changes in the ranking of land transfer income in various provinces in China from 1998 to 2023', 'originalAuthor': '罗志恒,方堃', 'originalContent': '摘要90年代房地产市场化改革以及快速推进的城镇化进程，产生大量的住房需求，带动房地产市场快速发展，房地产相关税收、土地出让收入持续高增。“土地财政”历经二十余年发展，已成为地方政府财政收入的重要来源。但是近年来，伴随房地产供需形势逆转，商品房市场低迷持续冲击土地市场，叠加居民购房信心不足、房地产企业现金流偏差、民营企业拿地意愿不高，直接影响了地方政府的土地出让收入，进一步加剧了地方财政紧张。2023年全国土地出让收入57996亿元，同比下降13.2%，连续两年下降，冲击地方可用财力，并引发市场关注。本文梳理了1998-2023年分省份土地出让收入排名变化特征，并进一步探讨土地财政未来向何处去。（可参考前期报告《澄清土地财政的五个认知误区》《土地市场降温，土地财政向何处去？》《分税制不是土地财政的原因，政绩考核才是》《何为股权财政？能否接替土地财政？》）从收入规模看，2023年土地出让收入排名前十的省份依次为：江苏（9482亿元）、浙江（6470亿元）、山东（4156亿元）、四川（3952亿元）、广东（3818亿元）、上海（3197亿元）、湖北（2307亿元）、湖南（2283亿元）、安徽（2085亿元）、北京（1947亿元）。从收入增速来看，已公布数据的28个省份中，22个省份2023年土地出让收入陷入负增长。东南沿海经济大省土地市场下行压力增加，福建（-23.0%）、浙江（-22.4%）、广东（-18.2%）、上海（-15.9%）、江苏（-11.3%）土地出让收入同比跌幅较大。东部地区10省市2023年土地出让收入合计同比下降15.4%，但其总量达33831亿元，仍占全国土地出让收入的58.3%，土地出让收入集中在东部地区的格局没有改变。风险提示：房地产低迷拖累土地出让收入；部分省份2023年土地出让收入数据暂未披露，可能对排名产生一定影响；国土资源年鉴数据统计口径与财政部门存在差异。', 'content': 'Abstract The real estate market-oriented reform and the rapid urbanization process in the 1990s generated a large amount of housing demand and drove the rapid development of the real estate market. Real estate-related taxes and land transfer income continued to increase at a high rate. After more than 20 years of development, “land finance” has become an important source of fiscal revenue for local governments. However, in recent years, with the reversal of the real estate supply and demand situation, the downturn in the commercial housing market has continued to impact the land market. Combined with residents\\' lack of confidence in purchasing houses, real estate companies\\' cash flow deviations, and private companies\\' low willingness to acquire land, it has directly affected local government\\'s land transfer income, further aggravating the situation. caused local financial constraints. In 2023, the national land transfer revenue was 5,799.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2%, and the decline for two consecutive years has impacted the available financial resources of local governments and attracted market attention. This article sorts out the changing characteristics of land transfer revenue rankings by province from 1998 to 2023, and further explores the future direction of land finance. (You can refer to the previous reports \"Clarifying Five Cognitive Misunderstandings of Land Finance\" \"The Land Market Cools, Where Will Land Finance Go?\" \"The Tax Sharing System is Not the Reason for Land Finance, Performance Assessment is\" \"What is Equity Finance? Can it Be?\" Taking over land finance?》) In terms of revenue scale, the top ten provinces in land transfer revenue in 2023 are: Jiangsu (948.2 billion yuan), Zhejiang (647 billion yuan), Shandong (415.6 billion yuan), Sichuan (395.2 billion yuan) ), Guangdong (381.8 billion yuan), Shanghai (319.7 billion yuan), Hubei (230.7 billion yuan), Hunan (228.3 billion yuan), Anhui (208.5 billion yuan), and Beijing (194.7 billion yuan). From the perspective of revenue growth, 22 of the 28 provinces that have released data will experience negative growth in land transfer revenue in 2023. Downward pressure on the land market in the southeastern coastal economic provinces has increased, with year-on-year declines in land transfer revenue in Fujian (-23.0%), Zhejiang (-22.4%), Guangdong (-18.2%), Shanghai (-15.9%), and Jiangsu (-11.3%) larger. The total land transfer revenue of the 10 provinces and cities in the eastern region in 2023 will decrease by 15.4% year-on-year, but its total amount will reach 3,383.1 billion yuan, still accounting for 58.3% of the national land transfer revenue. The pattern of land transfer revenue concentrated in the eastern region has not changed. Risk warning: The downturn in real estate has dragged down land transfer income; the 2023 land transfer income data of some provinces has not yet been disclosed, which may have a certain impact on the ranking; the statistical caliber of the Land and Resources Yearbook data is different from that of the financial department.', 'authorid': UUID('7ccf0175-14a6-508f-bd91-25f1f3d4d5c0'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6704477369785309, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'MP28J95SMS950R37181NP82EHVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:11:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'MP28J95SMS950R37181NP82EHVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('cac1fde5-da10-5fbc-bdf3-5f4fa511fb49'), 'title': 'Domestic Macroeconomic Weekly: How did the domestic economy perform in its \"first show\" after the Spring Festival?', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-25', 'encodeUrl': 'Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy55RJv8fkRkHBY8sobOqUgjw=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy55RJv8fkRkHBY8sobOqUgjw=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623565182_1.pdf?1708875540000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623565182_1.pdf?1708875540000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Domestic Macroeconomic Weekly: How did the domestic economy perform in its \"first show\" after the Spring Festival?', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '本周（ 2.19-2.25，下同）高频数据显示， 汽车零售迎来季节性走弱，观影市场春节档表现创历史新高；“返工潮”来袭，客运货运均大幅回升；新房和二手房交易均呈现季节性回升；节后工业生产恢复“有快有慢”，基建开工偏缓、汽车开工偏快；食品价格节后大幅回落，工业品价格节后涨跌互现；流动性方面，节后资金面整体宽松，央行基本平续 MLF。国务院聚焦开年工作，促发展与防风险并行。 本周国务院的“重磅”会议有点多，从 2 月 18 日的第三次全体会议、再到 23 日的国常会， 可以说新的一年仍是促发展与防风险并行的一年。如何促发展？ 国务院第三次全体会议上李强总理对做好开年工作进行动员，并且表示 2024 年政府工作报告“正在路上”；五天后的国常会上总理提出要把稳外资作为做好今年经济工作的重要发力点。 如何防风险？ 本周国常会提��要进一步做好防范化解债务风险工作，可见化债仍是今年政策的重中之重。汽车零售迎来季节性走弱，观影市场春节档表现创历史新高。 2 月 5 日至 2 月 17 日乘用车零售销量同比下降 32%， 2 月前三周乘用车零售销量同比去年同期下降 14%。受春节车市淡季以及楼市与股市影响，居民消费心态相对保守，入门级燃油车市场偏弱。观影方面，今年春节档有多部优质影片，拉动票房取得优异表现，春节档（ 2 月 10 日至 2 月 17日）总票房超 80 亿元，票房、场次与观影人数均创历史新高，本次假期比往年多一日，档期后程发力较强，整体表现超预期。出行：“返工潮”来袭，客运货运均大幅回升。 本周是春节假期结束、居民正式返工的第一周，客运量大幅提升， 春节收假后的客运量提升为季节性变化； 同比来看，轨道交通人流量处于近五年同期（春节收假后一周）最高位，地面交通人流量也处于历史较高水平。货运量快速回暖。 春节假期过后，公路上的货运车也逐渐活跃了起来，整车货运流量恢复到高位运行：本周整车货运流量指数环比增长147.2%；与历史同期（春节后的复工首周）相比来看，处于近几年春节假期后货运量的较高水平。地产：新房和二手房交易均呈现季节性回升。 本周一线、二线和三线城市的商品房成交面积均在春节假期后表现出季节性回升的态势，但与历史同期相比该季节性回升的幅度偏弱一些。本周二手房成交量季节性回升，且与历史同期相比处于较高位。分城市看，本周二线城市二手房销售表现“更胜一筹”：不仅二手房成交面积环比增速更快，且与历史同期相比更处高位。生产：节后工业生产恢复“有快有慢”。 伴随着“春节效应”的逐步散去，本周部分工业高频指标逐渐“升温”： 铁路货运量在节后开始回弹上行；沿海七省电厂负荷率近期整体表现平稳。 不过受到了节后开工时间不一、部分地区暴雪天气的影响，也有部分指标在“降温”： 本周高炉开工率略有下降，周度环比增速录得-0.7 pct；煤炭吞吐量经历了加速下降，周度环比下降 14.4%。 整体来看，我们认为工业生产节奏暂未完全摆脱“春节效应”带来的影响。通胀：食品价格节后大幅回落， 国内工业品价格节后涨跌互现。 本周农产品批发价格 200 指数出现回落，周环比下降 4%，由涨转跌。本周南华工业品指数周环比小幅上升 0.7%，由跌转涨。其中螺纹钢与铁矿石价格持续下跌，螺纹钢周环比回落 1.3%，降幅较节前略有收窄，目前国内多地工地并未复工，市场需求表现低迷，叠加雨雪天气，市场成交偏冷清。流动性方面，节后资金面整体宽松，央行基本平续 MLF。 本周 DR007周均值环比下降约 10bp，周内在 1.78%-1.84%区间内震荡，均在政策利率附近运行， R007 周均值上升约 4bp，周内在 1.85%-2.12%的区间内运行，非银资金成本相对较高；本周票据利率整体呈先涨后跌走势， 6M 国股转贴票据利率上升至周四 1.86% 后周五回落至 1.8%， 3M 国股转贴票据利率周四上升至高点 2.02%后周五回落至 1.95%。本周央行逆回购到期 13730 亿元，逆回购投放 5320 亿元，同时 2 月 18 日央行开展 5000亿元 MLF 操作，伴随当日 4990 亿元 MLF 到期，本周整体实现流动性净回笼 8400 亿元。本周质押式回购成交量与占比较上周均小幅回升，本周债市杠杆率在周五录得 108.7%，周平均水平较上周有小幅回落。风险提示： 政策定力超预期；出口超预期萎缩；海外经济体提前显著进入衰退。', 'content': 'High-frequency data this week (2.19-2.25, the same below) show that automobile retail sales are experiencing seasonal weakness, and the performance of the Spring Festival period of the movie-going market has reached a record high; the \"rework wave\" has hit, and both passenger and freight transportation have rebounded sharply; new homes and second-hand Real estate transactions showed a seasonal rebound; the recovery of industrial production after the holiday was \"fast and slow\", with infrastructure construction starting slowly and automobile construction starting fast; food prices fell sharply after the holiday, and industrial product prices were mixed after the holiday; liquidity , the capital situation is generally loose after the holiday, and the central bank basically maintains MLF. The State Council focused on work at the beginning of the new year, promoting development and preventing risks at the same time. The State Council has a lot of “heavyweight” meetings this week, from the third plenary session on February 18 to the regular session of the State Council on February 23. It can be said that the new year is still a year of promoting development and preventing risks in parallel. How to promote development? At the third plenary session of the State Council, Premier Li Qiang mobilized for the work to start the new year and said that the 2024 government work report is \"on the way\"; at the regular session of the State Council five days later, the Prime Minister proposed that stabilizing foreign investment should be an important part of doing a good job in economic work this year. Work hard. How to prevent risks? This week\\'s State Council Standing Committee proposed to further prevent and resolve debt risks. It is obvious that debt reduction is still the top priority of this year\\'s policy. Automobile retail sales experienced seasonal weakness, and the performance of the movie viewing market during the Spring Festival hit a record high. Passenger car retail sales fell 32% year-on-year from February 5 to February 17, and passenger car retail sales in the first three weeks of February fell 14% year-on-year. Affected by the off-season of the Spring Festival car market and the property and stock markets, residents\\' consumption mentality is relatively conservative, and the entry-level fuel vehicle market is weak. In terms of movie viewing, there were many high-quality films during the Spring Festival this year, which drove excellent box office performance. The total box office during the Spring Festival (February 10 to February 17) exceeded 8 billion yuan, and the box office, number of screenings, and number of moviegoers all hit record highs. , this holiday was one day longer than in previous years, the later part of the schedule was stronger, and the overall performance exceeded expectations. Travel: The \"rework wave\" is coming, and both passenger and freight transportation have rebounded significantly. This week is the first week when the Spring Festival holiday ends and residents officially return to work. Passenger traffic has increased significantly. The increase in passenger traffic after the Spring Festival holiday is a seasonal change; year-on-year, rail transit passenger flow is at the same level in the past five years (Spring Festival holiday) the following week), the ground traffic flow is also at a historically high level. Freight volume is recovering rapidly. After the Spring Festival holiday, freight trucks on the highway have gradually become more active, and vehicle freight traffic has returned to high levels: this week, the vehicle freight traffic index increased by 147.2% month-on-month; compared with the same period in history (the first week of resumption of work after the Spring Festival) Look, freight volume is at a relatively high level after the Spring Festival holiday in recent years. Real Estate: Both new and second-hand housing transactions showed a seasonal rebound. This week, the transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bcommercial housing in first-, second- and third-tier cities all showed a seasonal rebound trend after the Spring Festival holiday, but the seasonal rebound was weaker compared with the same period in history. Second-hand housing transaction volume rebounded seasonally this week and is at a higher level compared with the same period in history. Looking at different cities, the sales performance of second-hand houses in second-tier cities this week was \"better\": not only did the transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bsecond-hand houses grow faster month-on-month, but it was also at a higher level compared with the same period in history. Production: The recovery of industrial production after the holiday will be \"fast or slow\". As the \"Spring Festival effect\" gradually dissipates, some industrial high-frequency indicators gradually \"heat up\" this week: Railway freight volume began to rebound and rise after the holiday; the overall performance of power plant load factors in the seven coastal provinces has been stable recently. However, due to the varying post-holiday start times and the impact of heavy snowfall in some areas, some indicators are \"cooling down\": the blast furnace operating rate dropped slightly this week, with a week-on-week growth rate of -0.7 pct; coal throughput experienced a The decline accelerated, with a week-on-week decline of 14.4%. Overall, we believe that the pace of industrial production has not yet completely gotten rid of the impact of the \"Spring Festival Effect\". Inflation: Food prices fell sharply after the holiday, and domestic industrial product prices were mixed after the holiday. The Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index fell back this week, down 4% week-on-week, turning from rising to falling. This week, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index rose slightly by 0.7% week-on-week, turning from falling to rising. Among them, the prices of rebar and iron ore continued to fall, with rebar falling by 1.3% week-on-week, and the decline was slightly narrower than before the holiday. At present, many domestic construction sites have not resumed work, and the market demand is sluggish, coupled with rain and snow, the market transactions are skewed Deserted. In terms of liquidity, funds are generally loose after the holiday, and the central bank basically maintains MLF. This week, the weekly average of DR007 dropped by about 10bp month-on-month, and fluctuated within the range of 1.78%-1.84% during the week, both running near the policy interest rate. The weekly average of R007 increased by approximately 4bp, and operated within the range of 1.85%-2.12% during the week. Non-bank funds The cost is relatively high; this week, the overall bill interest rate showed an overall trend of rising first and then falling. The interest rate of 6M\\'s state-owned shares transfer bill rose to 1.86% on Thursday and then fell back to 1.8% on Friday. The interest rate of 3M\\'s state-owned shares transfer bill rose to a high of 2.02% on Thursday. It fell back to 1.95% on Friday. This week, the central bank\\'s reverse repurchase expires with 1,373 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase investment is 532 billion yuan. At the same time, the central bank carried out 500 billion yuan of MLF operations on February 18. With the expiration of 499 billion yuan of MLF on that day, the overall net withdrawal of liquidity was achieved this week. 840 billion yuan. The volume and proportion of pledged repurchase transactions this week rebounded slightly compared with last week. This week\\'s bond market leverage ratio recorded 108.7% on Friday, and the weekly average level fell slightly from last week. Risk warning: Policy strength exceeded expectations; exports shrank more than expected; overseas economies entered recession significantly ahead of schedule.', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': -0.5957023501396179, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'LFNKBSE8MMAV61H0UJI2UAUP5NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:11:47 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'LFNKBSE8MMAV61H0UJI2UAUP5NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e5a01d8a-d56a-55bc-b760-b4e8814da20b'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: LPR is lowered than expected, waiting for confirmation of demand-side signals', 'author': 'Cai Shaoli, Gao Cong', 'orgName': '华泰期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80055521', 'orgSName': '华泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-25', 'encodeUrl': 'Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy57SRvVa4yKn9CdbslhLozJI=', 'researcher': '蔡劭立,高聪', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000304033', '11000304231'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy57SRvVa4yKn9CdbslhLozJI=', 'site': 'Huatai Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623564517_1.pdf?1708872524000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623564517_1.pdf?1708872524000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: LPR is lowered than expected, waiting for confirmation of demand-side signals', 'originalAuthor': '蔡劭立,高聪', 'originalContent': '策略摘要商品期货：黑色、有色、化工买入套保；贵金属、农产品、能源中性；股指期货：买入套保。核心观点市场分析LPR超预期下调提振国内信心。2月20日，央行超预期下调5年期LPR利率25bp，与此同时1年期LPR维持不变，此举稳定地产市场预期信号强烈。随后国内股指和商品均表现偏强，目前核心在于节后复工复产进度，叠加今年3月4日和3月5日开幕的两会，宏观上关注政策预期和复工复产事实共振向上的可能性。从日历效应来看，回溯2011年至2023年，剔除2020年共12个春节样本，假期期间的消费对于农产品中的谷物、软商品、油脂油料有一定支撑，节后首日样本上涨概率接近或>70%；节后首周，在复工复产逻辑驱动下，有色、黑色原料、非金属建材表现相对亮眼；节后首月，黄金表现相对亮眼。美元指数小幅回落，欧美制造业PMI分化。欧元区2月综合PMI从1月的47.9%升至48.9%，但产出指数拖累制造业的低迷程度进一步加深，制造业PMI从46.6%降至46.1%，德国2月制造业PMI录得4个月新低。与此同时，产出指数支撑美国2月制造业PMI初值大幅回升至51.5，前值为50.7。2月23日当周美元指数小幅下跌0.23%，全球股指普遍回升。节后第一周，商品交投清淡。黑色方面，钢厂原料补库不及预期，铁水产量小幅下滑，仍需关注复工复产进度；有色整体延续季节性累库趋势，下游需求平淡；能源短期受到俄乌冲突导致的炼厂加工量下降以及红海事件的支撑；化工板块芳烃线具有韧性，关注苯乙烯、PX、PTA的机会，目前处于驱动强，但估值亦偏高的状态，此外橡胶供给受限需求则逐步恢复，亦可以关注；农产品方面，节后猪价有所走强，关注远端供应短缺下的行情抢跑可能。贵金属方面，趋势上继续保持乐观，近期美元指数有所回落，等待美债利率信号进一步确认。风险地缘政治风险（能源板块上行风险）；全球经济超预期下行（风险资产下行风险）；美联储超预期收紧（风险资产下行风险）；海外流动性风险冲击（风险资产下行风险）。', 'content': \"Strategy summary Commodity futures: black, non-ferrous, and chemical buy hedging; precious metals, agricultural products, and energy neutral; stock index futures: buy hedging. Core point of view market analysis: LPR lowered than expected to boost domestic confidence. On February 20, the central bank lowered the 5-year LPR interest rate by 25bp beyond expectations. At the same time, the 1-year LPR remained unchanged. This move has a strong signal of stabilizing the real estate market. Subsequently, both domestic stock indexes and commodities performed relatively strongly. The current focus is on the progress of resumption of work and production after the holiday, superimposed on the two sessions that opened on March 4 and March 5 this year. From a macro perspective, attention is paid to the possibility that policy expectations and the facts of resumption of work and production will resonate upward. . From the calendar effect, looking back from 2011 to 2023, excluding a total of 12 Spring Festival samples in 2020, consumption during the holiday has certain support for grains, soft commodities, oils and fats in agricultural products, and the probability of sample increases on the first day after the holiday is close to or >70%; in the first week after the holiday, driven by the logic of resumption of work and production, the performance of non-ferrous and black raw materials and non-metallic building materials was relatively bright; in the first month after the holiday, the performance of gold was relatively bright. The U.S. dollar index fell slightly, and European and American manufacturing PMIs diverged. The Eurozone's comprehensive PMI rose to 48.9% in February from 47.9% in January. However, the output index dragged down the downturn in the manufacturing industry further. The manufacturing PMI fell from 46.6% to 46.1%. Germany's manufacturing PMI recorded a 4 Monthly low. At the same time, the output index supported the initial value of the U.S. manufacturing PMI in February, which rebounded sharply to 51.5 from the previous value of 50.7. The U.S. dollar index fell slightly by 0.23% in the week of February 23, and global stock indexes generally rebounded. In the first week after the holiday, commodity trading was light. On the black side, steel mills' raw material replenishment fell short of expectations, and molten iron production declined slightly. We still need to pay attention to the progress of resumption of work and production; non-ferrous metals as a whole continued the seasonal inventory accumulation trend, and downstream demand was flat; energy was affected by the short-term decline in refinery processing volume caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As well as the support of the Red Sea incident; the aromatics line of the chemical industry sector is resilient. Pay attention to the opportunities of styrene, PX, and PTA. It is currently in a strong driving state, but the valuation is also on the high side. In addition, the demand for rubber supply is gradually recovering, and you can also pay attention to it. ; In terms of agricultural products, pig prices have strengthened after the holiday, and we are concerned about the possibility of a market jump due to remote supply shortages. In terms of precious metals, the trend continues to remain optimistic. The U.S. dollar index has fallen back recently, waiting for further confirmation of U.S. bond interest rate signals. Risks include geopolitical risks (upward risks for the energy sector); unexpected downturns in the global economy (downward risks for risky assets); unexpected tightening by the Federal Reserve (downward risks for risky assets); overseas liquidity risk impacts (downward risks for risky assets).\", 'authorid': UUID('1f2a6e53-dc21-5b64-b53e-783c1fe16451'), 'sentimentScore': -0.5011968910694122, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'HGG8E5JH02ACVATHCK9BKUQGJ7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:11:50 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'HGG8E5JH02ACVATHCK9BKUQGJ7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5ba64736-6a27-5978-b209-bee85015371f'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the Fourth Meeting of the Central Committee for Deepening Reform: Important Signals for Land Reform', 'author': 'Song Xuetao, Zhang Wei', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-25', 'encodeUrl': 'Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy5zmmcc2yzdPXJWVcmSULLlM=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛,张伟', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658', '11000305734'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy5zmmcc2yzdPXJWVcmSULLlM=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623563984_1.pdf?1708870427000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623563984_1.pdf?1708870427000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the Fourth Meeting of the Central Committee for Deepening Reform: Important Signals for Land Reform', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛,张伟', 'originalContent': '有可能在今年召开的二十届三中全会将是宏观政策的一条重要主线。土地要素可能就是“妨碍中国式现代化顺利推进的体制机制障碍”和“最突出的问题”之一。本次会议强调“对一些探索性但又十分紧迫的改革举措，要深入研究、稳慎推进”。改革的紧迫性可能体现在三个方面。第一，当前土地要素流动市场化程度还不够高、交易范围仍然较窄。第二，“人地挂钩”有待进一步加强。第三，后地产时代的土地财政退坡问题。优化“耕地占补平衡制度”可能是未来的改革方向，而将土地要素流动与新型城镇化相结合、实现“地随人走”可能是改革的具体举措。风险提示：土地管理制度改革的推进节奏存在不确定性；用地指标跨区域交易不及预期。', 'content': 'The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, which is likely to be held this year, will be an important main line of macro policy. The land factor may be one of the “institutional and institutional obstacles that hinder the smooth advancement of Chinese-style modernization” and “the most prominent problem.” This meeting emphasized that “some exploratory but very urgent reform measures must be studied in depth and promoted steadily and prudently.” The urgency of reform may be reflected in three aspects. First, the current marketization of land factor flow is not high enough and the scope of transactions is still narrow. Second, the “human-land connection” needs to be further strengthened. Third, there is the problem of declining land finance in the post-real estate era. Optimizing the \"cultivated land occupation and compensation balance system\" may be the direction of future reform, while combining land element mobility with new urbanization and realizing \"land follows people\" may be specific measures for reform. Risk warning: There is uncertainty in the pace of land management system reform; cross-regional transactions in land use indicators are lower than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('5401fe2c-be87-59ac-9de2-31f3e8036e8b'), 'sentimentScore': -0.034800298511981964, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '82GPH4R2CBUK8E6GESMNH2O8N7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:11:52 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '82GPH4R2CBUK8E6GESMNH2O8N7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ee13542a-1f40-5a59-a29c-f5f3fae16871'), 'title': 'Overseas Macro Week Special Topic: The possibility of Trump imposing tariffs if elected should not be underestimated', 'author': 'Fan Lei, Wang Boqun', 'orgName': '国联证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000028', 'orgSName': '国联证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-25', 'encodeUrl': 'Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy5w8KbFinr/h6T8KYrj4jM8A=', 'researcher': '樊磊,王博群', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000175009', '11000457032'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=Kyt/wLRFy/kg1QrCcWWy5w8KbFinr/h6T8KYrj4jM8A=', 'site': 'Guolian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623562991_1.pdf?1708857285000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402251623562991_1.pdf?1708857285000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas Macro Week Special Topic: The possibility of Trump imposing tariffs if elected should not be underestimated', 'originalAuthor': '樊磊,王博群', 'originalContent': '专题内容摘要我们认为虽然特朗普获得共和党党内提名的可能性较大，但是是否能够赢得一般选举还有较大不确定性。如果特朗普再次当选总统，再次加征关税的可能性是不能忽略的；特朗普还有可能以加征关税作为筹码要求中方做出其他方面的让步。但是，考虑到60%的关税可能使得中美贸易趋于断绝，包括一些并不敏感的劳动密集型产品，既可能导致美国经济蒙受不必要的损失，也可能使得中美关系趋于紧张，我们认为这一情景并非大概率事件。特朗普或能成为共和��候选人特朗普有多大概率当选这个问题可以分解为两个问题，一个是特朗普是否能获得共和党的党内提名，第二个是特朗普是否能够赢得一般选举。我们认为虽然特朗普获得共和党党内提名的可能性较大，但是是否能够赢得一般大选还有较大不确定性。从目前的情况来看，一般选举中特朗普和拜登的民调结果非常接近。特朗普有意愿延续加征关税的政策特朗普的讲话和著作表明他的贸易观可能是反对贸易逆差的重商主义。从他的个性来看，他的想法也不太容易被改变。因此，加征关税的政策路线可能持续。此外，对华强硬的目的也可能是为了获得更多的谈判筹码。中美第一阶段贸易协定表明美方可能希望中方在知识产权、食品和农产品贸易、技术转让、金融服务和增加从美国进口方面等方面做出让步。如果特朗普加征新关税或提出新要求，当前中方有优势的新能源汽车或被“特别关照”。特朗普对华强硬或是为了争取摇摆州蓝领选票特朗普期望在对中国贸易上表现强硬出来在贸易上“赢”，通过对中国的强硬在选举中“赢”。他可能希望通过对华贸易强硬来赢得重要的制造业蓝领工人在摇摆州的关键选票。特朗普获胜的路径依然在于赢得关键的摇摆州。加征60%关税的可能性相对较低但是，即使特朗普当选，我们认为真正落实对全部中国产品60%关税的风险有限。首先，美国经济可能蒙受较大损失，一些与无关战略的劳动密集型产品相关的损失毫无必要。其次，参考“大萧条”期间的“斯姆特-霍利关税法”和美苏冷战的历史，贸易断绝可能加剧民族主义情绪推动国家关系走向紧张。紧张的中美关系也并不符合美国国家利益。最后，市场套利机制和规避关税的行为会使得全面对华产品加征高额关税的执法成本也很高。风险提示：特朗普一意孤行机会主义，地缘政治冲突风险超预期，双边民族主义情绪上升超预期。', 'content': 'Summary of topic content We believe that although Trump is more likely to win the Republican nomination, there is still great uncertainty about whether he can win the general election. If Trump is re-elected as president, the possibility of imposing additional tariffs cannot be ignored; Trump may also use additional tariffs as a bargaining chip to demand other concessions from China. However, considering that the 60% tariff may cut off Sino-U.S. trade, including some insensitive labor-intensive products, which may cause unnecessary losses to the U.S. economy and may also strain Sino-U.S. relations, we It is believed that this scenario is not a high probability event. Trump may become the Republican candidate. The question of how likely Trump is to be elected can be broken down into two questions. One is whether Trump can win the Republican party nomination, and the second is whether Trump can win the general election. election. We believe that although Trump is more likely to win the Republican nomination, there is still great uncertainty about whether he can win the general election. As it stands, the poll results for Trump and Biden in the general election are very close. Trump is willing to continue the policy of imposing tariffs. Trump’s speeches and writings indicate that his view on trade may be mercantilist in opposition to trade deficits. Judging from his personality, his ideas are not easily changed. Therefore, the policy line of imposing tariffs may continue. In addition, the purpose of being tough on China may also be to gain more bargaining chips. The Phase One trade agreement between China and the United States indicates that the United States may hope that China will make concessions in areas such as intellectual property rights, food and agricultural product trade, technology transfer, financial services, and increased imports from the United States. If Trump imposes new tariffs or puts forward new requirements, new energy vehicles that China currently has an advantage in may receive \"special care.\" Trump\\'s toughness on China may be to win blue-collar votes in swing states. Trump hopes to \"win\" on trade by being tough on China and \"win\" in the election by being tough on China. He may hope to win key votes from important blue-collar manufacturing workers in swing states by being tough on trade with China. Trump’s path to victory still lies in winning key swing states. The possibility of imposing 60% tariffs is relatively low. However, even if Trump is elected, we believe the risk of actually implementing 60% tariffs on all Chinese products is limited. First, the U.S. economy may suffer large losses, some of which are unnecessary related to labor-intensive products that have nothing to do with strategy. Secondly, referring to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act during the Great Depression and the history of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, trade severance may exacerbate nationalist sentiments and push national relations toward tension. Tense Sino-US relations are also not in the national interest of the United States. Finally, market arbitrage mechanisms and tariff avoidance behaviors will make the enforcement costs of comprehensively imposing high tariffs on Chinese products very high. Risk warning: Trump insists on opportunism, the risk of geopolitical conflicts exceeds expectations, and bilateral nationalist sentiments rise beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('4786395a-b6a8-5613-93cb-532d55daeddb'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6254060864448547, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '4FROCMR4CPR6DQDP1L4U4D6CCFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:11:55 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '4FROCMR4CPR6DQDP1L4U4D6CCFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "https://reportapi.eastmoney.com/report/jg?cb=datatable8544623&pageSize=100&beginTime=2023-12-16&endTime=2024-03-15&pageNo=5&qType=3\n", - "{'id': UUID('7f295c28-d7e0-567e-84cf-8e73b1a04ece'), 'title': 'Financial High Frequency Data Weekly Report: Why did M2 growth decline rapidly in January?', 'author': 'Zhang Jun, Xu Dongshi, Zhan Lu, Nie Tianqi', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-25', 'encodeUrl': 'r5BusUl/ARyH9Gl5NuPzWCPiaTiiQPcveckbpm8WWZE=', 'researcher': '章俊,许冬石,詹璐,聂天奇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000185520', '11000208436', '11000450636'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=r5BusUl/ARyH9Gl5NuPzWCPiaTiiQPcveckbpm8WWZE=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402241623552116_1.pdf?1708853886000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402241623552116_1.pdf?1708853886000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Financial High Frequency Data Weekly Report: Why did M2 growth decline rapidly in January?', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,许冬石,詹璐,聂天奇', 'originalContent': '核心观点：2024 年 1 月 M2 同比增长 8.7%，增速回落 1pct，处于历史较低水平。 M2 当月新增5.35 万亿元，同比少增约 2 万亿元，带来 M2 增速快速下滑。 为什么会出现同比大幅少增的现象，首先要拆解 M2 从何处派生。M2 从何处派生 ？ 1 月 M2 同比少增主要由于银行购买资管产品项目派生货币减少。2024 年 1 月广义货币 M2 的派生渠道拆分来看， 其中银行信贷投放 4.87 万亿元（同比-621 亿元），银行购买企业债 3325 亿元（同比+3724 亿元）， 外汇占款投放 1720亿元（同比+434 亿元），其他渠道回笼 180 亿元（同比-24373 亿元）。 银行信贷投放和外汇占款派生的广义货币两年相差不大，明显的变化是银行购买企业债这项同比多派生货币 3724 亿元，这与 2024 年 1 月社融项目中，企业债券融资同比多增 3197亿元数据相吻合 。新发的企业债可能主要由银行购买 。 “ 其他渠道” 项目主要包括财政净支出、银行购买资管产品及其他杂项。其中其他杂项占比较低且数据不易统计这里做简单忽略处理。财政收支数据由于不单独披露 1 月份数据，因此无法拆分出具体数值，我们粗略估算由于春节错位， 2024 年 1 月财政净支出派生的货币大概率高于 2023 年同期。这样倒算出银行购买资管产品同比去年大幅少增可能高于 2.5万亿，由此渠道派生的 M2 的减少是 1 月 M2 同比增速快速下滑的主要原因 。银行购买资管产品项目为什么会出现同比大幅少增？可能的原因是由于去年 1 月银行大量使用自有资金购买资管产品，超出历史均值。 背后可能的原因是居民和企业密集赎回理财等资管产品，但资管产品持有的资产不可能全部清仓， 银行为保持产品存续，使用自有资金购买资管产品。但今年 1 月并未出现银行理财产品被集中赎回的情况。因此， 2024 年 1 月出现 M2 增速的快速下滑，主要是由于去年的高基数，而高基数是由于银行购买资管产品项目派生的广义货币超出历史平均水平带来的，单月的快速下滑不必过度解读， M2 增速可能在 2 月出现回升。本周市场观察（ 2 月 18 日-2 月 23 日）：公开市场操作：逆回购净回笼 8410 亿元， MLF 净投放 10 亿元。货币市场利率春节后回落， 后半周临近月末季节性上行： SHIBOR007 和 DR007 分别收于 1.8160%（ -4BP）、 1.8425%（ -1BP）。 GC007 收于 2.21%（ +17BP）。 R007 收于 2.1247%（ +27BP），与 DR007 利差快速扩大。银行间质押式回购日成交量快速上升： 从上周的约 4.6 万亿上升至约 6.3 万亿。5 年期 LPR 调降 25BP， 国债收益率曲线下移，期限利差扩大： 10 年期中债国债收益率收于 2.40%（ -3BP）， 1 年期收于 1.77%（ -16BP）同 业 存 单 发 行 利 率 继 续 回 落 ： 1 年 期 国 有 银 行 同 业 存 单 发 行 利 率 回 落 至 2.25%（ -7BP）； 股份制银行收于 2.27%（ -3BP）。美元指数回落至 104 下方， 非美货币涨跌互现，人民币小幅贬值：人民币即期汇率收于 7.1984（ +57pips）， 日元-0.22%、 韩元+0.33%、 欧元+0.42%、 加元+0.06%、澳元+0.83%、英镑+0.43%。风险提示1.政策理解不到位的风险2.央行货币政策超预期的风险3.政府债券发行超预期的风险4.经济超预期下行的风险5.美联储紧缩周期超预期加长的风险', 'content': 'Core view: M2 increased by 8.7% year-on-year in January 2024, with the growth rate falling by 1pct, which is at a historically low level. M2 added 5.35 trillion yuan that month, a decrease of about 2 trillion yuan year-on-year, causing a rapid decline in M2 growth. Why there is a significant decrease in year-on-year growth? First, we need to dismantle where M2 is derived. Where is M2 derived? The year-on-year decrease in M2 in January was mainly due to the decrease in currency derived from bank purchases of asset management products. Looking at the derivation channels of broad money M2 in January 2024, bank credit was 4.87 trillion yuan (-62.1 billion yuan year-on-year), banks purchased corporate bonds 332.5 billion yuan (+372.4 billion yuan year-on-year), and foreign exchange funds were released 172 billion yuan (+43.4 billion yuan year-on-year), and 18 billion yuan was withdrawn from other channels (-2,437.3 billion yuan year-on-year). There is not much difference in the broad money derived from bank credit extension and foreign exchange purchases in the past two years. The obvious change is that banks’ purchases of corporate bonds have increased by 372.4 billion yuan year-on-year. This is the same as the year-on-year increase in corporate bond financing in social financing projects in January 2024. The data is consistent with an increase of 319.7 billion yuan. Newly issued corporate bonds may be mainly purchased by banks. \"Other channels\" items mainly include net fiscal expenditures, bank purchases of asset management products and other miscellaneous items. Among them, other miscellaneous items account for a low proportion and the data is difficult to count and are simply ignored here. Fiscal revenue and expenditure data are not disclosed separately for January, so specific values \\u200b\\u200bcannot be separated. We roughly estimate that due to the misalignment of the Spring Festival, the currency derived from net fiscal expenditure in January 2024 is likely to be higher than the same period in 2023. This backward calculation shows that the significant decrease in bank purchases of asset management products year-on-year may be more than 2.5 trillion. The decrease in M2 derived from this channel is the main reason for the rapid decline in M2 year-on-year growth in January. Why did banks’ purchases of asset management products show a sharp decrease year-on-year? The possible reason is that banks used a large amount of their own funds to purchase asset management products in January last year, exceeding the historical average. The possible reason behind this is that residents and enterprises are intensively redeeming asset management products such as wealth management products, but it is impossible to liquidate all the assets held by asset management products. In order to maintain the existence of the products, banks use their own funds to purchase asset management products. However, there was no centralized redemption of bank wealth management products in January this year. Therefore, the rapid decline in M2 growth in January 2024 was mainly due to the high base last year, and the high base was caused by the broad money derived from bank purchases of asset management products exceeding the historical average. The rapid decline in a single month There is no need to over-interpret, M2 growth may pick up in February. Market observation this week (February 18-February 23): Open market operations: Reverse repurchase net withdrawals of 841 billion yuan, MLF net injection of 1 billion yuan. Money market interest rates fell after the Spring Festival and rose seasonally in the second half of the week near the end of the month: SHIBOR007 and DR007 closed at 1.8160% (-4BP) and 1.8425% (-1BP) respectively. GC007 closed at 2.21% (+17BP). R007 closed at 2.1247% (+27BP), and the interest rate difference with DR007 expanded rapidly. The daily trading volume of inter-bank pledged repos rose rapidly: from about 4.6 trillion last week to about 6.3 trillion. The 5-year LPR was lowered by 25 BP, the government bond yield curve moved downwards, and the term spread expanded: the 10-year China Bond treasury bond yield closed at 2.40% (-3 BP), and the 1-year maturity closed at 1.77% (-16 BP). The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit Interest rates continued to fall: the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit issuance rate of state-owned banks fell to 2.25% (-7BP); joint-stock banks closed at 2.27% (-3BP). The U.S. dollar index fell back below 104, non-U.S. currencies were mixed, and the RMB depreciated slightly: the RMB spot exchange rate closed at 7.1984 (+57pips), the Japanese yen -0.22%, the Korean won +0.33%, the euro +0.42%, the Canadian dollar + 0.06%, Australian dollar +0.83%, British pound +0.43%. Risk warning 1. The risk of insufficient understanding of the policy 2. The risk of the central bank’s monetary policy exceeding expectations 3. The risk of government bond issuance exceeding expectations 4. The risk of the economy declining more than expected 5. The risk of the Fed’s tightening cycle being longer than expected', 'authorid': UUID('958af231-b988-5359-b5ad-f0eff717c2ef'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9212159682065248, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'U00UQOPFKIQPJFIRTDP8QD8COVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:11:57 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'U00UQOPFKIQPJFIRTDP8QD8COVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('69e4edae-87bc-562e-af4d-83de08c6cb8e'), 'title': 'Liquidity tracking weekly report: R007 rises to 2.12%', 'author': 'Tan Yiming, Lang Henan, Xie Yao', 'orgName': '民生证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000038', 'orgSName': '民生证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-24', 'encodeUrl': 'r5BusUl/ARyH9Gl5NuPzWGSKMKpAZwl52Jg97hkgY4s=', 'researcher': '谭逸鸣,郎赫男,谢瑶', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000374135', '11000440439', '11000449731'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=r5BusUl/ARyH9Gl5NuPzWGSKMKpAZwl52Jg97hkgY4s=', 'site': 'Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '民生证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402241623558137_1.pdf?1708852353000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402241623558137_1.pdf?1708852353000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Liquidity tracking weekly report: R007 rises to 2.12%', 'originalAuthor': '谭逸鸣,郎赫男,谢瑶', 'originalContent': '2.26-3.1 资金面关注因素：（1） 逆回购到期 5320 亿元； （2） 政府债净缴款 2253 亿元； （3） 同业存单到期 5304 亿元。2.18-2.23 公开市场情况：公开市场净回笼 8400 亿元。 7 天期逆回购投放 5320 亿元，到期 1340 亿元， 净投放 3980 亿元； 14 天期逆回购投放 0 亿元，到期 12390 亿元， 净回笼12390 亿元； MLF 投放 5000 亿元，到期 4990 亿元。2.18-2.23 货币市场利率变动：货币市场利率走势： （1） DR001 利率下行 11.2bp 至 1.7%， DR007 下行0.8bp 至 1.8%， R001 上行 1.4bp 至 1.9%， R007 上行 27.2bp 至 2.1%；（2） 1 月期 CD 利率下行 9.0bp 至 2.1%， 3 月期 CD 利率上行 3.1bp 至2.3%， 6 月期 CD 利率下行 13.3bp 至 2.3%， 9 月期 CD（股份行）利率下行6.3bp 至 2.3%， 1 年期 CD（股份行） 下行 3.1bp 至 2.3%。银行间质押式回购成交额日均为 63062 亿元，比 2.4-2.9 增加 16770 亿元。 其中， R001 日均成交额 55207 亿元，平均占比 88.0%； R007 日均成交6276 亿元，平均占比 9.4%。上交所新质押式国债回购日均成交额为 18462 亿元，比 2.4-2.9 增加 2225亿元。 其中， GC001 日均成交额 15530 亿元，占比 85.4%， GC007 日均成交额 2028 亿元，占比 10.1%。2.18-2.23 同业存单一级市场跟踪：主要银行同业存单发行 11177 亿元，净融资额为 5962 亿元，对比 2.4-2.9主要银行同业存单发行 4935 亿元，净融资额-678 亿元，发行规模增加，净融资额增加。 股份行、 1 年期存单发行占比最高，分别为 45%、 34%； 农商行、 1 月期、 AAA 级存单的发行成功率最高，分别为 100%、 89%、 89%。同业存单各主体的发行利率分化， 股份行、 国有行、农商行 1Y CD 发行利率分别下行 3.1bp、 7.5bp、 7.6bp，城商行 1Y CD 发行利率上行 4.1bp。 各期限的发行利率分化， 1 月期、 6 月期、 9 月期、 1 年期（股份行） 发行利率分别下行 9.0bp、 13.3bp、 6.3bp、 3.1bp， 3 月期发行利率上行 3.1bp。主体发行利差方面， 国有行与股份行 1 年期存单发行利差下行 0.1bp 至-2.4bp； 期限利差方面， 1Y-1M 利差上行 5.3bp 至 31.33bp。 此外， 股份行 1YCD 与 R007 的利差下行 30.32bp 至 14.44bp， 1Y CD 与 R001 的利差下行4.45bp 至 40.36bp，“1Y CD-1 年期 MLF”利差下行 3.09bp 至-23.09bp。2.18-2.23 同业存单二级市场跟踪：同业存单收益率分化。 其中，股份行 1 年期同业存单收益率下行 6.1bp， 1月期同业存单收益率上行 4.0bp， AA+级 1 年期同业存单收益率下行 4.3bp。 主体利差方面， 农商行与股份行 1 年期存单利差下行 1.6bp 至 6.9bp； 期限利差方面， 1Y-1M 利差下行 10.3bp 至 23.2bp； 等级利差方面， AA(1Y)-AAA(1Y)存单利差上行 2.0bp 至 21.0bp。 此外， “1Y CD–1Y MLF”利差下行 6.08bp 至-24.61bp，“1Y CD-10Y 国债”利差下行 2.4bp 至-14.7bp。风险提示： 政策不确定性；基本面变化超预期。', 'content': '2.26-3.1 Factors of concern in terms of funds: (1) Reverse repos matured at RMB 532 billion; (2) Net government debt payments reached RMB 225.3 billion; (3) Interbank certificates of deposit matured at RMB 530.4 billion. 2.18-2.23 Open market conditions: A net withdrawal of 840 billion yuan from the open market. The 7-day reverse repurchase invested 532 billion yuan, and 134 billion yuan matured, with a net investment of 398 billion yuan; the 14-day reverse repo invested 0.0 billion yuan, and matured 1,239 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 1,239 billion yuan; MLF invested 500 billion yuan, with a maturity of 499 billion yuan. 2.18-2.23 Changes in money market interest rates: Trends in money market interest rates: (1) DR001 interest rates fell by 11.2bp to 1.7%, DR007 fell by 0.8bp to 1.8%, R001 rose by 1.4bp to 1.9%, and R007 rose by 27.2bp to 2.1%; ( 2) The 1-month CD interest rate fell by 9.0bp to 2.1%, the 3-month CD interest rate increased by 3.1bp to 2.3%, the 6-month CD interest rate fell by 13.3bp to 2.3%, and the 9-month CD (joint-stock bank) interest rate fell by 6.3bp. to 2.3%, and 1-year CD (joint-stock bank) fell 3.1bp to 2.3%. The daily average inter-bank pledged repurchase turnover was 6.3062 billion yuan, an increase of 1.677 billion yuan from 2.4-2.9. Among them, the average daily turnover of R001 is 5,520.7 billion yuan, accounting for 88.0% on average; the average daily turnover of R007 is 627.6 billion yuan, accounting for 9.4% on average. The average daily turnover of new pledged government bond repurchases on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 1,846.2 billion yuan, an increase of 222.5 billion yuan from 2.4-2.9. Among them, the average daily trading volume of GC001 is 1.553 billion yuan, accounting for 85.4%, and the average daily trading volume of GC007 is 202.8 billion yuan, accounting for 10.1%. 2.18-2.23 Interbank certificates of deposit primary market tracking: major banks issued 1,117.7 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit, with a net financing amount of 596.2 billion yuan, compared with 2.4-2.9 major banks issued 493.5 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit, with a net financing amount of -67.8 billion yuan, and the issuance scale Increase, the net financing amount increases. Joint-stock banks and 1-year certificates of deposit have the highest issuance rates, 45% and 34% respectively; rural commercial banks, 1-month and AAA certificates of deposit have the highest issuance success rates, 100%, 89% and 89% respectively. The issuance interest rates of interbank certificates of deposit are differentiated. The 1Y CD issuance interest rates of joint-stock banks, state-owned banks, and rural commercial banks dropped by 3.1bp, 7.5bp, and 7.6bp respectively, while the 1Y CD issuance interest rates of city commercial banks increased by 4.1bp. The issuance interest rates of each term are differentiated. The issuance interest rates of 1-month, 6-month, 9-month and 1-year (joint-stock banks) dropped by 9.0bp, 13.3bp, 6.3bp and 3.1bp respectively, while the 3-month issuance interest rates increased by 3.1bp. . In terms of main issuance spreads, the 1-year certificate of deposit issuance spreads between state-owned banks and joint-stock banks fell by 0.1bp to -2.4bp; in terms of term spreads, the 1Y-1M spreads rose by 5.3bp to 31.33bp. In addition, the spread between 1Y CD and R007 of joint-stock banks dropped by 30.32bp to 14.44bp, the spread between 1Y CD and R001 dropped by 4.45bp to 40.36bp, and the spread of “1Y CD-1-year MLF” dropped by 3.09bp to -23.09bp. 2.18-2.23 Tracking of the secondary market of interbank certificates of deposit: Yields of interbank certificates of deposit are divergent. Among them, the yield on 1-year interbank certificates of deposit of joint-stock banks fell by 6.1bp, the yield on 1-month interbank certificates of deposit increased by 4.0bp, and the yield on AA+ grade 1-year interbank certificates of deposit fell by 4.3bp. In terms of main body interest rate spreads, the 1-year certificate of deposit spreads between rural commercial banks and joint-stock banks fell by 1.6bp to 6.9bp; in terms of term spreads, the 1Y-1M spreads fell by 10.3bp to 23.2bp; in terms of grade spreads, AA(1Y)- The interest rate spread of AAA(1Y) certificate of deposit increased by 2.0bp to 21.0bp. In addition, the spread of \"1Y CD-1Y MLF\" fell by 6.08bp to -24.61bp, and the spread of \"1Y CD-10Y Treasury Bond\" fell by 2.4bp to -14.7bp. Risk warning: Policy uncertainty; fundamental changes exceed expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('0e2e77a5-b8b5-5ba0-8728-8b25da6400a8'), 'sentimentScore': 0.5509559474885464, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3T1FUHBVPKI2EI0TK63GG65IGFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:01 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3T1FUHBVPKI2EI0TK63GG65IGFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('57f0260f-1635-56c2-92d4-6a5d2e8272cc'), 'title': 'Huajin Macro Double Cycle Weekly Report (Issue 45): House prices continue to fall, banks \"defend\" interest margins', 'author': 'Qin Tai', 'orgName': '华金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000134', 'orgSName': '华金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-23', 'encodeUrl': '4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XPzzV2mZ6jvS6RE53r9Ce+U=', 'researcher': '秦泰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249937'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XPzzV2mZ6jvS6RE53r9Ce+U=', 'site': 'Huajin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623380980_1.pdf?1708725639000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623380980_1.pdf?1708725639000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Huajin Macro Double Cycle Weekly Report (Issue 45): House prices continue to fall, banks \"defend\" interest margins', 'originalAuthor': '秦泰', 'originalContent': '投资要点年初各地房价延续下跌，一线二手住宅跌幅最深。1月70城新建住宅、二手住宅环比平均分别下跌0.4%和0.7%，分别为开始连续下跌以来的近8个月低位和近9个月次低位，一线城市二手住宅当月环比下跌达1.1%跌幅最深，近几个月下跌加速。而二三线城市在最近半年间已经进入了房价稳定下跌阶段。房地产市场何时见底的关键在于两大失衡问题何时缓和：1）一线城市产业实力雄厚吸纳、新增人口能力强，但房价收入比过高，刚需群体购买力相对疲弱；2）二三线城市房价明显更加友好，但产业基础相对不强，吸引新增居民落户置业的能力有限。两大区域各自面临的不同失衡问题，都需要一定的时间来共同观察“量”和“价”的表现，才可以逐月进行房地产市场阶段的跟踪和判断。需求侧的结构性放松政策应被看做是稳定和缓和作用为主的操作，核心的失衡还是在产业结构、人口流动方向和房价收入比等长期的、累积性的因素上，对房地产市场的反弹，我们建议客观谨慎分析研判，在上述中长期结构性问题经过不断努力而获得明显改善之前都不可操之过急。“保卫”净息差：超预期降息后，中小商业银行下调存款利率。本轮LPR下调前后，商业银行或早做准备、或反应迅速，凸显出在房地产市场深度调整、地方债务风险持续化解的背景下，本次降息主要意在优化债务存量，而对于信用增量，央行已经转为相当谨慎的判断，并引导市场参与者理性看待，更关注结构优化。本次降息只降长端政策利率、并且一次降幅较大，其本意更多在于促进化解地方债务风险和房地产市场风险向债市和商业银行资产负债表的风险延伸，对于房地产市场我们认为更多可能起到的是稳定而非刺激作用。考虑到美元年初以来重拾升势令人民币再度面临一定的外部贬值压力、同时存款利率越低利率刚性越大，我们预计年内后续进一步大幅下调长端政策利率的概率有所下降，后续的潜在降息操作预计将重回以1YLPR和MLF利率下调为主的期限结构。美欧央行纪要中经济展望分化加剧。美联储和欧央行均表达了对于近期通胀回落较快可能无法持续的担忧，后者偏鹰程度由此超出市场预期。同样的通胀高位黏性担忧却对应着完全相反的经济前景展望，我们认为暂时的走弱无法撼动美元指数重新向上的方向趋势。美联储在经历超强的23Q4工业生产之后展望相对稳中带有一些“谦虚”，欧央行对经济停滞的担忧和“类滞胀”的纠结却是深层次的。制造业PMI方面，美强欧弱背离再度加大，佐证了欧央行的纠结。美国制造业PMI以较上月大幅上行0.8至51.5的绝对领先水平傲视发达经济体，而欧元区、日本、英国2月制造业PMI却分别下行0.5、0.8、0.2至46.1、47.2和47.1，均远低于荣枯线水平。我们维持这一轮美元指数的上行过程可能远未结束的判断不变，美元指数的走高可能进一步令我国货币政策操作的外部环境变得复杂化。好在我国财政货币政策协同配合的潜在空间较大，2024年在外部金融环境日趋复杂严峻的背景下，我们更期待国内经济政策组合拳形成良好的实体经济和金融市场、外汇市场同时稳定的效果。华金宏观-全球宏观资产价格综合面板（GMAPP）：本周A股普遍上涨，传媒、计算机、通信涨幅最大；美债收益率整体上行，中国短端国债收益率大幅下行，中美10Y利差扩大；美元指数下行，CNY被动升值；金价重回2000美元以上。风险提示：房地产市场复苏慢于预期风险；美元指数超预期走强风险。', 'content': 'Investment Points: Housing prices in various places continued to fall at the beginning of the year, with first-tier second-hand housing experiencing the deepest decline. In January, newly-built housing and second-hand housing in 70 cities fell by an average of 0.4% and 0.7% month-on-month, respectively, reaching the lowest level in nearly 8 months and the second low in nearly 9 months since the continuous decline began. Second-hand housing in first-tier cities fell by 1.1% month-on-month. Deepest, the decline has accelerated in recent months. Second- and third-tier cities have entered a stage of steady decline in housing prices in the past six months. The key to when the real estate market will bottom out is when two major imbalances will ease: 1) First-tier cities have strong industrial strength to absorb and increase population capacity, but the housing price-to-income ratio is too high, and the purchasing power of the primary demand groups is relatively weak; 2) Second-tier and third-tier cities Housing prices are obviously more friendly, but the industrial base is relatively weak, and the ability to attract new residents to settle down and buy property is limited. The two major regions face different imbalance problems, and it takes a certain amount of time to jointly observe the performance of \"volume\" and \"price\" before tracking and judging the real estate market stage month by month. Structural relaxation policies on the demand side should be regarded as operations that mainly have stabilizing and easing effects. The core imbalance is still in the long-term and cumulative factors such as industrial structure, population flow direction and housing price-to-income ratio, which have a negative impact on the real estate market. rebound, we recommend objective and prudent analysis and judgment, and do not act too hastily until the above-mentioned medium and long-term structural problems have been significantly improved through continuous efforts. \"Defend\" net interest margin: After an unexpected interest rate cut, small and medium-sized commercial banks lowered their deposit interest rates. Before and after this round of LPR cuts, commercial banks either made early preparations or responded quickly, which highlights that in the context of the deep adjustment of the real estate market and the continued resolution of local debt risks, this interest rate cut is mainly intended to optimize the debt stock, and for credit increment, The central bank has turned to a very cautious judgment and guided market participants to view it rationally and pay more attention to structural optimization. This interest rate cut only lowers the long-term policy interest rate, and the reduction is relatively large. Its original intention is to promote the extension of local debt risks and real estate market risks to the bond market and commercial bank balance sheets. We think more about the real estate market May have a stabilizing rather than stimulating effect. Considering that the U.S. dollar has resumed its upward trend since the beginning of the year and the RMB is once again facing certain external depreciation pressure. At the same time, the lower the deposit interest rate, the greater the interest rate rigidity. We expect that the probability of further substantial reductions in long-term policy interest rates during the year will decrease, and subsequent potential interest rate cuts will be reduced. Operations are expected to return to a term structure dominated by 1YLPR and MLF interest rate cuts. The divergence of economic outlooks in the minutes of the central banks of the United States and Europe has intensified. Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have expressed concerns that the recent rapid decline in inflation may not be sustainable, and the latter\\'s hawkish bias has exceeded market expectations. The same concern about high sticky inflation corresponds to the completely opposite economic outlook. We believe that the temporary weakness cannot shake the U.S. dollar index\\'s upward trend again. After experiencing super strong 23Q4 industrial production, the Federal Reserve\\'s outlook is relatively stable and somewhat \"modest\", while the European Central Bank\\'s concerns about economic stagnation and \"quasi-stagflation\" are deep-seated. In terms of manufacturing PMI, the divergence between the strength of the United States and the weakness of Europe has once again increased, confirming the entanglement of the European Central Bank. The U.S. manufacturing PMI ranked ahead of developed economies with a sharp increase of 0.8 to 51.5 from the previous month, while the February manufacturing PMIs of the Eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom fell by 0.5, 0.8, and 0.2 to 46.1, 47.2, and 47.1, respectively. Far below the boom-bust level. We maintain our judgment that the upward trend of the U.S. dollar index may be far from over. The rise of the U.S. dollar index may further complicate the external environment for my country\\'s monetary policy operations. Fortunately, there is a lot of potential space for synergy between my country\\'s fiscal and monetary policies. In 2024, against the background of an increasingly complex and severe external financial environment, we are even more looking forward to the combination of domestic economic policies to form a good stabilizing effect on the real economy, financial markets, and foreign exchange markets. . Huajin Macro - Global Macro Asset Price Comprehensive Panel (GMAPP): A shares generally rose this week, with media, computers, and communications seeing the largest increases; U.S. bond yields rose overall, China\\'s short-term government bond yields fell sharply, and the Sino-US 10Y interest rate spread Expanded; the U.S. dollar index fell, CNY passively appreciated; the gold price returned to above $2,000. Risk warning: the risk of the real estate market recovering slower than expected; the risk of the U.S. dollar index strengthening stronger than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('ae91a726-1e5a-5a58-8cc8-85a64f6c36b2'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9673519115895033, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'C2EV5LJAHKIV99GOD8QB95V9GNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'C2EV5LJAHKIV99GOD8QB95V9GNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('df3cb0b6-fc35-5522-b38c-bad354cc92d3'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: Domestic interest rates are cut sharply, and the United States is worried about cutting interest rates too quickly', 'author': 'Ye Fan, Wang Runmeng, Liu Yanhong', 'orgName': '西南证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000296', 'orgSName': '西南证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-23', 'encodeUrl': '4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XPxvL8TGauDvFEL8+w5iXo8=', 'researcher': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000263735', '11000418732', '11000440469'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XPxvL8TGauDvFEL8+w5iXo8=', 'site': 'Southwest Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '西南证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623245896_1.pdf?1708716306000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623245896_1.pdf?1708716306000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: Domestic interest rates are cut sharply, and the United States is worried about cutting interest rates too quickly', 'originalAuthor': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'originalContent': '一周大事记国内：5年期LPR大幅调降，中小银行下调存款利率。2月18日，央行进行MLF小幅超额平价续作，调降5年期LPR25个基点，此次降息主要出于两方面考虑，缓解房企融资问题叠加“两会”在即降低资金成本，本次降息也有助于减轻政府偿债压力；19日，习近平主持召开中央全面深化改革委员会第四次会议，会议对于土地要素、全面创新、绿色转型、防范化解安全风险等有多方面部署，此后政策将围绕会议中的要点进一步细化落实，建议关注相关机会和产业政策变化；截至20日，全国29个省份214个城市已建立房地产融资协调机制，分批提出可以给予融资支持的房地产项目“白名单”并推送给商业银行，近期针对房地产的政策较密集，政策效果的持续性和稳定性还仍待观察；21日消息，司法部、国家发展改革委、全国人大常委会法工委共同召开立法工作座谈会，民营经济促进法起草工作已经启动，民营经济促进法立法进程的持续推进，针对民营经济的政策支持力度预计将加大，大幅提振民营企业的发展信心；近日吉林、广西等地多家中小银行宣布调整人民币存款挂牌利率，2024年存款利率有望继续下调。海外：美联储官员担心过快降息，红海局势再度升温。当地时间2月19日，也门胡塞武装发言人发表声明称，胡塞武装通过导弹袭击了两艘美国船只，并精准命中。后续预计国际原油价格短期在地缘政治、低库存、经济前景低迷等多重因素下震荡偏强，黄金价格偏震荡走势；21日，数据显示日本1月出口同比大涨11.9%，超预期，海外高利率的滞后影响或使得外需依然偏弱，后续还需持续观察日本通胀回落以及工资增长对内需的影响；21日，美联储公布1月议息会议纪要显示，与会美联储官员认为，“政策利率可能处于本轮紧缩周期的峰值”，考虑居民资产负债表情况及财政情况，我���仍认为降息将在年中左右开始；22日，数据显示欧元区2月综合PMI由47.9%升至48.9%，略高于预期值，制造业PMI低于预期，欧洲经济的恢复或一波三折，市场对于欧洲央行放宽货币政策的乐观情绪有所升温，我们仍预计欧洲央行在下半年降息的概率较大；同日，美国公布2月Markit制造业PMI创17个月新高，服务业创三个月新低。高频数据：上游：本周布伦特原油现货均价、铁矿石价格、阴极铜价周环比落0.18%、2.18%、升0.79%；中游：螺纹钢价格周环比下降0.28%，水泥价格指数周环比下降0.1%，秦皇岛港动力煤平仓价周环比升1.9%；下游：商品房成交面积周环比回升2863.41%，2月第一周全国乘用车市场日均零售5.4万辆；物价：蔬菜价格周环比回落1.21%，猪肉价格回落4.37%。下周重点关注：中国1月规上工业企业利润，美国1月耐用品订单月率（周二）；欧元区2月经济景气指数（周三）；美国1月PCE月率，日本1月工业产出月率（周四）；欧元区2月Markit制造业PMI、调和CPI年率（周五）。风险提示：国内经济复苏不及预期，海外经济超预期下行。', 'content': 'Major domestic events of the week: The 5-year LPR was significantly lowered, and small and medium-sized banks lowered their deposit interest rates. On February 18, the central bank carried out a slight over-parity renewal of MLF and lowered the 5-year LPR by 25 basis points. This interest rate cut was mainly based on two considerations: easing the financing problems of real estate companies and the upcoming \"Two Sessions\" to reduce capital costs. This interest rate cut It will also help reduce the government\\'s debt repayment pressure; on the 19th, Xi Jinping presided over the fourth meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensive Deepening Reforms. The meeting made various arrangements for land elements, comprehensive innovation, green transformation, preventing and defusing security risks, etc. Policies from now on will focus on The key points in the meeting were further detailed and implemented, and it was recommended to pay attention to relevant opportunities and changes in industrial policies; as of the 20th, 214 cities in 29 provinces across the country have established real estate financing coordination mechanisms and proposed in batches a \"white list\" of real estate projects that can provide financing support And pushed it to commercial banks. Recently, policies for real estate have been intensive, and the sustainability and stability of the policy effects remain to be seen. According to news on the 21st, the Ministry of Justice, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Legal Affairs Committee of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress jointly held a legislative work At the symposium, the drafting of the Private Economy Promotion Law has been launched. The legislative process of the Private Economy Promotion Law continues to advance. Policy support for the private economy is expected to increase, which will greatly boost the development confidence of private enterprises. Recently, many companies in Jilin, Guangxi and other places have Small and medium-sized banks announced adjustments to the listed interest rates for RMB deposits, and deposit interest rates are expected to continue to fall in 2024. Overseas: Federal Reserve officials are worried about cutting interest rates too quickly, and the situation in the Red Sea is heating up again. On February 19, local time, the spokesperson of the Houthi armed forces in Yemen issued a statement stating that the Houthi armed forces attacked two US ships with missiles and accurately hit them. Subsequently, it is expected that international crude oil prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term due to multiple factors such as geopolitics, low inventory, and sluggish economic prospects, and gold prices will tend to fluctuate; on the 21st, data showed that Japan\\'s exports in January surged 11.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, and overseas highs The lagging impact of interest rates may make external demand remain weak, and we need to continue to observe the impact of Japan\\'s falling inflation and wage growth on domestic demand. On the 21st, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its January interest rate meeting, which showed that Fed officials attending the meeting believed that \"the policy interest rate may be at \"The peak of this round of tightening cycle\", taking into account residents\\' balance sheet and fiscal situation, we still believe that interest rate cuts will begin around the middle of the year; on the 22nd, data showed that the Eurozone\\'s comprehensive PMI rose from 47.9% to 48.9% in February, which was slightly higher As expected, the manufacturing PMI was lower than expected. The recovery of the European economy may have twists and turns. The market\\'s optimism about the European Central Bank\\'s loosening of monetary policy has increased. We still expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. On the same day, the United States announced 2 In March, the Markit manufacturing PMI hit a 17-month high, and the service industry hit a three-month low. High-frequency data: Upstream: This week’s average Brent crude oil spot price, iron ore price, and cathode copper price fell by 0.18%, 2.18%, and rose by 0.79% week-on-week; midstream: rebar prices fell by 0.28% week-on-week, and the cement price index It fell 0.1% week-on-week, and the closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port rose 1.9% week-on-week; downstream: commercial housing transaction area rebounded 2863.41% week-on-week, and the national passenger car market averaged 54,000 retail sales per day in the first week of February; prices: vegetables Prices fell by 1.21% week-on-week, and pork prices fell by 4.37%. Focus next week: China’s profits from above-scale industrial enterprises in January, US durable goods orders monthly rate in January (Tuesday); Eurozone economic sentiment index in February (Wednesday); US January PCE monthly rate, Japan’s industrial output in January Monthly rate (Thursday); Eurozone February Markit manufacturing PMI, annual adjusted CPI rate (Friday). Risk warning: The domestic economic recovery is less than expected, and the overseas economy is declining more than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('d3389991-b216-5572-82e3-6396ad6aed04'), 'sentimentScore': -0.3340926170349121, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'C1LHMDGJKGGO3LEGAGBRJG2T6RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:06 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'C1LHMDGJKGGO3LEGAGBRJG2T6RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c5008273-0279-5066-b17c-19b6ba256132'), 'title': 'Commentary on China’s price data in January 2024: Twists and turns repaired', 'author': 'Tan Zhuo, Wang Tiancheng', 'orgName': '招商银行股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-02-23', 'encodeUrl': '4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XPu61hljnQoMAPy0DrSi8SQ=', 'researcher': '谭卓,王天程', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000281853', '11000412642'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XPu61hljnQoMAPy0DrSi8SQ=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623227360_1.pdf?1708708922000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623227360_1.pdf?1708708922000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on China’s price data in January 2024: Twists and turns repaired', 'originalAuthor': '谭卓,王天程', 'originalContent': '1月CPI通胀-0.8%，弱于市场预期的-0.5%。环比增速0.3%，连续第二个月上涨；PPI通胀-2.5%，符合市场预期。环比增速-0.2%，继续下跌。1月物价数据整体呈现出“服务强于商品，居民强于企业”的结构特征。CPI方面，除猪肉外的食品价格大幅弱于季节性水平，这直接导致了整体读数的大幅走弱，而从核心通胀，特别是服务分项看，价格已有企稳迹象；PPI方面，上游价格已在大宗商品价格企稳影响下止跌，但中下游价格仍在下行。背后的原因在于，商品供给相对刚性，企业部门的经济行为亦不及居民部门有弹性，供需缺口收敛过程的先后顺序随之成型。', 'content': 'CPI inflation in January was -0.8%, weaker than market expectations of -0.5%. The month-on-month growth rate was 0.3%, rising for the second consecutive month; PPI inflation was -2.5%, in line with market expectations. The month-on-month growth rate was -0.2%, continuing to decline. The overall price data in January showed the structural characteristics of “services are stronger than goods, and residents are stronger than enterprises”. In terms of CPI, food prices except pork were significantly weaker than seasonal levels, which directly led to a significant weakening of the overall reading. Looking at core inflation, especially the service sub-item, prices have shown signs of stabilization; in terms of PPI, upstream prices The decline has stopped under the influence of the stabilization of commodity prices, but prices in the middle and lower reaches are still falling. The reason behind this is that the supply of goods is relatively rigid, and the economic behavior of the corporate sector is not as elastic as that of the residential sector. The sequence of the supply and demand gap convergence process is subsequently formed.', 'authorid': UUID('510b9bbe-d143-5321-b7bf-818dba62f694'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9148152768611908, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'I4M47H431GL1JV02NUFNN65NABVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:09 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'I4M47H431GL1JV02NUFNN65NABVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3ae65e8d-1e5c-58e1-b163-740558727abc'), 'title': 'Commentary on U.S. price data for January 2024: “double support” for U.S. inflation', 'author': 'Tan Zhuo, Liu Yiduo, Wang Tiancheng, Chen Cheng', 'orgName': '招商银行', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-02-23', 'encodeUrl': '4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XCvVpy4RbI6E8MHMoMba+qw=', 'researcher': '谭卓,刘一多,王天程,陈诚', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000281853', '11000421035', '11000412642', '11000435935'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XCvVpy4RbI6E8MHMoMba+qw=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623227369_1.pdf?1708708805000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623227369_1.pdf?1708708805000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on U.S. price data for January 2024: “double support” for U.S. inflation', 'originalAuthor': '谭卓,刘一多,王天程,陈诚', 'originalContent': '1月美国物价数据超出市场预期。CPI同比增速3.1%（市场预期2.9%），环比增速0.3%（市场预期0.2%）；核心CPI同比增速3.9%（市场预期3.7%），环比增速0.4%（市场预期0.3%）。商品与服务通胀“冰火两重天”的背后，是美国和非美经济剪刀差的进一步走阔。与美国经济持续强劲形成鲜明对比的，是英国和日本等非美经济体陷入技术性衰退。商品能够进行全球贸易，服务则供需“两头在内”，受此影响美国服务通胀粘性大超预期，商品通胀则在低位进一步下探。前瞻地看，现阶段的服务通胀粘性来自于内生性供需缺口，具备较强的可持续性，这意味着去通胀最后一公里将尤为艰难，美联储降息的时点和幅度或进一步不及市场预期。', 'content': 'U.S. price data for January exceeded market expectations. CPI growth rate was 3.1% year-on-year (market expectation 2.9%), month-on-month growth rate 0.3% (market expectation 0.2%); core CPI growth rate was 3.9% year-on-year (market expectation 3.7%), month-on-month growth rate 0.4% (market expectation 0.3%) . Behind the \"ice and fire\" of goods and services inflation is the further widening of the scissor gap between the U.S. and non-U.S. economies. In stark contrast to the continued strength of the U.S. economy, non-U.S. economies such as the United Kingdom and Japan have fallen into technical recession. Goods can be traded globally, while supply and demand for services are \"inclusive\". As a result, the stickiness of U.S. service inflation has exceeded expectations, while commodity inflation has further declined at a low level. Looking forward, the stickiness of service inflation at this stage comes from the endogenous supply and demand gap and is highly sustainable, which means that the last mile of de-inflation will be particularly difficult, and the timing and extent of the Fed\\'s interest rate cuts may further fall short of market expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('bd808364-3932-53ec-b335-d76c5f137d51'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6309525817632675, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'NROH73DVM2D7ROMPB232F6T9CRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:11 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'NROH73DVM2D7ROMPB232F6T9CRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c69e86d1-8290-5af3-9757-fea50b49da27'), 'title': 'A brief analysis of the economic growth targets of each province in 2024: prudent goals, big provinces take responsibility', 'author': 'Li Weilin', 'orgName': '招商银行', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-02-23', 'encodeUrl': '4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XKjpZokOoXK1Ru/D3b6cXhE=', 'researcher': '李蔚林', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000410033'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XKjpZokOoXK1Ru/D3b6cXhE=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623227358_1.pdf?1708709117000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623227358_1.pdf?1708709117000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'A brief analysis of the economic growth targets of each province in 2024: prudent goals, big provinces take responsibility', 'originalAuthor': '李蔚林', 'originalContent': '随着地方两会的召开，31个省区市2024年GDP增速目标已全部出炉。各省目标设定在4.5%-8%区间内，GDP加权目标增速为5.4%，较2023年（5.6%）略微下调。按往年完成情况，各省目标增速可支撑全国实现5%左右的经济增速目标。一、2024年目标增速分布：格局延续、中枢下移2024年各省GDP增速目标延续了近年来大省稳健、中小省分化的整体格局，但整体分布的中枢下移，GDP加权目标增速1从5.6%下调至5.4%。2024年各省目标可分为高中低三区：高区，目标增速高于5.5%（不含）的省区市（图1红色），包括海南、西藏、新疆、四川、湖北、湖南、安徽、重庆、内蒙古、吉林、甘肃、宁夏等12个省份。该区以中西部省份为主，其中吉林、甘肃、内蒙古、四川的增速目标与上年持平，今年因分布中枢下移进入到高区。以上省份中，目标最高的为海南，设定为“8%左右”；新疆、西藏、海南三省是为数不多目标设定在6.5%以上的省份，均位于中西部；吉林近年来首次出现在高区，这对于长期处于增速底部的东北三省也是一次突破。中区，目标增速为5.5%的省区市（图1灰色），包括浙江、河南、福建、河北、陕西、辽宁、贵州、黑龙江等8个省份。东部加东北构成了中区的主力。福建、河南近年来首次从高区下滑至中区，特别是福建省目标的下调，使得东部的高区省份归零；浙江是粤苏鲁浙四强在中区唯一的存在；辽宁上调目标后，东北三省已经全部位于中高区域。低区，目标增速低于5.5%（不含）的省区市（图1蓝色），包括广东、江苏、山东、上海、北京、江西、云南、广西、山西、青海、天津等11个省份。粤苏鲁沪京已连续多年位于低区，但五省市2024年均保持目标不下降，其中北京还上调了目标；江西从上年的高区直接滑落至今年的低区，是变化最大的省份；天津以“4.5%左右”的目标值垫底，其自2018年起一直处于底部区域），但今年目标上调了0.5个百分点。', 'content': 'With the convening of the local two sessions, the GDP growth targets for 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in 2024 have all been released. The targets of each province are set in the range of 4.5%-8%, and the weighted GDP target growth rate is 5.4%, which is slightly lower than 2023 (5.6%). Based on the performance in previous years, the target growth rate of each province can support the national economic growth target of about 5%. 1. Distribution of target growth rates in 2024: The pattern continues, and the center moves downward. The GDP growth rate targets of each province in 2024 continue the overall pattern of stable large provinces and differentiation of small and medium-sized provinces in recent years, but the center of the overall distribution moves downward, and the GDP weighted target growth rate 1 was revised down from 5.6% to 5.4%. The targets of each province in 2024 can be divided into three zones: high, medium and low: high zones, provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities with a target growth rate higher than 5.5% (exclusive) (red in Figure 1), including Hainan, Tibet, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, and Anhui , Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Gansu, Ningxia and other 12 provinces. This area is dominated by the central and western provinces, among which Jilin, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan have the same growth rate target as the previous year. This year, they have entered the high-end area due to the downward shift of the distribution center. Among the above provinces, Hainan has the highest target, which is set at \"around 8%\"; Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hainan are among the few provinces with targets set at more than 6.5%, all located in the central and western regions; Jilin has appeared in the country for the first time in recent years. This is also a breakthrough for the three northeastern provinces that have been at the bottom of growth for a long time. The central zone refers to provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities with a target growth rate of 5.5% (gray in Figure 1), including 8 provinces including Zhejiang, Henan, Fujian, Hebei, Shaanxi, Liaoning, Guizhou, and Heilongjiang. The east and northeast constitute the main force of the central region. Fujian and Henan have fallen from the high zone to the middle zone for the first time in recent years. Especially the downward adjustment of Fujian Province’s target has brought the eastern high zone provinces to zero; Zhejiang is the only presence of the top four in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang in the middle zone; after Liaoning raised its target , the three northeastern provinces are all located in the mid-to-high zone. Low areas, provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities whose target growth rate is lower than 5.5% (exclusive) (blue in Figure 1), including 11 provinces including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, Beijing, Jiangxi, Yunnan, Guangxi, Shanxi, Qinghai, Tianjin, etc. province. Guangdong, Shandong, Shanghai and Beijing have been in the low zone for many years in a row, but the five provinces and cities have maintained their targets in 2024. Among them, Beijing has raised its targets; Jiangxi has directly fallen from the high zone last year to the low zone this year, which is the biggest change. Provinces; Tianjin is at the bottom with a target value of \"around 4.5%\", which has been at the bottom since 2018), but this year the target was raised by 0.5 percentage points.', 'authorid': UUID('ec037370-3ed2-5fc0-8b14-9f2ddb97989a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.17024683579802513, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'FOVG3CST9ASA8RJ7K8VOUOSBUJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:13 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'FOVG3CST9ASA8RJ7K8VOUOSBUJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ccba1866-59f1-500d-addb-0a091b30749e'), 'title': 'Comments on financial data in January 2024: private sector financing increases', 'author': 'Tan Zhuo, Niu Mengqi', 'orgName': '招商银行股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-02-23', 'encodeUrl': '4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XM0DWSQUxW7OTjBPKDfzF/8=', 'researcher': '谭卓,牛梦琦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000281853', '11000353933'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XM0DWSQUxW7OTjBPKDfzF/8=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623227357_1.pdf?1708709025000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623227357_1.pdf?1708709025000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on financial data in January 2024: private sector financing increases', 'originalAuthor': '谭卓,牛梦琦', 'originalContent': '1月我国新增社融6.5万亿（预期5.78万亿），同比多增5,061亿；新增人民币贷款4.92万亿（预期4.67万亿），同比多增162亿；M2同比增长8.7%（预期9.3%）。一、信贷：规模再创新高，居民端现企稳迹象人民币贷款略超季节性水平，房地产政策加码放松下，房企开发贷款和居民购房需求或是主要支撑因素。1月新增人民币贷款4.92万亿，创历史同期新高，高于近五年均值约1.1万亿。新增贷款在去年高基数水平上仍超预期，既表明私人部门内生动能增强，也反映尽管央行要求金融机构信贷投放要总量适度、节奏平稳，但并非“改变金融机构信贷投放正常的季节规律”。企业端，PSL投放撬动房地产“三大工程”相关贷款需求，叠加房地产“白名单”火速扩容，对新增贷款形成一定支撑。1月非金融企业贷款新增3.86万亿，同比少增8,200亿。其中，中长贷当月新增3.31万亿，同比少增1,900亿；短贷新增1.46万亿，同比少增500亿。表内信贷需求回升压缩银行收票规模，票据融资呈现“量跌价升”。1月票据净融资减少9,733亿，同比多减5,606亿；国股行半年直贴利率中枢为2.25%，环比大幅上升92bp。居民端，1月房地产政策松绑再提速，一线城市均调整限购政策，提振房地产市场预期，或托底购房需求，尤其是二手房。1月居民中长贷新增6,272亿，同比多增4,041亿，规模回到2017-2019年平均水平。二、社融：政府债发行放缓，企业债逆势扩容1月新增社融6.5万亿，社融存量增速9.5%，与上月持平。开年以来政府债发行速度明显放缓，1月新增政府债融资2,947亿，同比少增1,193亿。在央行“大力发展直接融资，推动公司信用类债券和金融债券市场发展”的政策导向下，1月企业债融资增加4,835亿，同比多增3,197亿，环比多增7,576亿。受票据贴现规模下降和经济活力增强的影响，1月未贴现票据新增5,635亿，同比大幅多增2,672亿。三、货币：M2增速急落，M1增速陡升M2同比增速大幅降至8.7%，主要受居民存款大幅少增拖累。一方面，春节前居民企业往往存在大量取现需求，通常若春节在2月份，1月居民存款往往同比少增。另一方面，结合居民中长贷较强劲表现，房地产刚需和改善性需求或有所释放，居民存款可能重新流入房市。1月居民存款增加2.53万亿，同比少增3.67万亿；企业存款增加1.14万亿，同比多增1.86万亿；财政存款增加8,604亿，同比多增1,776亿。M1同比增速5.9%，环比大幅上升4.6pct，接近去年同期水平，指向经济活跃度边际再增强。四、前瞻：私人部门内生动能增强总体而言，居民中长贷增加、存款回落，叠加M1增速大幅回升，均显示私人部门内生增长动能有企稳迹象。这既得益于房地产政策持续优化，也来自公共部门扩大需求对经济的正向拉动，若这一趋势能维持，有利于信心提振和收入改善。前瞻地看，随着春节后政府债发行加快，社融增速有望回升；随着春节前居民存款回落这一季节性因素消退，即使房地产销售继续小幅回暖，M2增速仍将边际上行，1月广义流动性呈现的大幅缺口（“M2-社融”增速差）或相应收窄。', 'content': 'In January, my country added 6.5 trillion yuan of social financing (expected to be 5.78 trillion), an increase of 506.1 billion year-on-year; new RMB loans were 4.92 trillion (expected to be 4.67 trillion), an increase of 16.2 billion year-on-year; M2 increased by 8.7% year-on-year (expected to 9.3%). 1. Credit: The scale has reached a new high. Residents are showing signs of stabilization, with RMB loans slightly exceeding seasonal levels. As real estate policies are further relaxed, development loans for real estate companies and residents\\' demand for home purchases may be the main supporting factors. New RMB loans in January were 4.92 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period in history, higher than the average of about 1.1 trillion yuan in the past five years. New loans still exceeded expectations at last year\\'s high base level, which not only shows that the endogenous momentum of the private sector has increased, but also reflects that although the central bank requires financial institutions to provide credit in a moderate amount and at a steady pace, it does not \"change the normal season of credit provision by financial institutions.\" law\". On the corporate side, the introduction of PSL has stimulated demand for loans related to the \"three major real estate projects\", and the rapid expansion of the real estate \"whitelist\" has provided certain support for new loans. In January, non-financial corporate loans increased by 3.86 trillion yuan, a decrease of 820 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, medium and long-term loans increased by 3.31 trillion yuan that month, a decrease of 190 billion yuan year-on-year; short-term loans increased by 1.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 50 billion yuan year-on-year. The rebound in on-balance sheet credit demand has reduced the scale of bank bill collection, and bill financing has shown a \"volume decrease and price increase\". In January, net bill financing decreased by 973.3 billion, an increase of 560.6 billion year-on-year; the central bank\\'s half-year direct discount interest rate was 2.25%, a sharp increase of 92bp month-on-month. On the residential side, real estate policies were relaxed and accelerated in January, with first-tier cities adjusting purchase restriction policies, which boosted real estate market expectations and may underpin demand for home purchases, especially second-hand homes. Residential medium and long-term loans increased by 627.2 billion in January, an increase of 404.1 billion year-on-year, and the scale returned to the average level from 2017 to 2019. 2. Social Financing: Government bond issuance slowed down, and corporate bonds bucked the trend and expanded social financing by 6.5 trillion yuan in January. The stock of social financing increased by 9.5%, the same as last month. The pace of government bond issuance has slowed down significantly since the beginning of the year. New government bond financing in January was 294.7 billion, a decrease of 119.3 billion year-on-year. Under the policy guidance of the central bank to \"vigorously develop direct financing and promote the development of corporate credit bonds and financial bond markets\", corporate bond financing increased by 483.5 billion in January, an increase of 319.7 billion year-on-year, and an increase of 757.6 billion month-on-month. Affected by the decline in the scale of bill discounts and the increase in economic vitality, undiscounted bills increased by 563.5 billion in January, a significant increase of 267.2 billion year-on-year. 3. Currency: The growth rate of M2 dropped sharply, while the growth rate of M1 surged. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 dropped sharply to 8.7%, which was mainly dragged down by the sharp decrease in residents\\' deposits. On the one hand, before the Spring Festival, resident enterprises often have a large demand for cash withdrawals. Usually, if the Spring Festival falls in February, residents\\' deposits tend to increase less year-on-year in January. On the other hand, combined with the relatively strong performance of residents\\' medium and long-term loans, the rigid demand and improvement demand for real estate may be released, and residents\\' deposits may flow into the real estate market again. In January, residents\\' deposits increased by 2.53 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.67 trillion yuan year-on-year; corporate deposits increased by 1.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.86 trillion yuan year-on-year; fiscal deposits increased by 860.4 billion, an increase of 177.6 billion yuan year-on-year. M1 grew by 5.9% year-on-year, a sharp increase of 4.6pct month-on-month, close to the level of the same period last year, pointing to a marginal increase in economic activity. 4. Prospects: The endogenous kinetic energy of the private sector has increased. Overall, the increase in medium and long-term residents\\' loans, the fall in deposits, and the sharp rebound in M1 growth rate all show signs of stabilization of the endogenous growth kinetic energy of the private sector. This is due not only to the continued optimization of real estate policies, but also to the positive stimulus to the economy from the expansion of demand from the public sector. If this trend can be maintained, it will be conducive to boosting confidence and improving income. Looking forward, as the issuance of government bonds accelerates after the Spring Festival, the growth rate of social financing is expected to pick up; as the seasonal factor of the decline in residents\\' deposits before the Spring Festival subsides, even if real estate sales continue to pick up slightly, the growth rate of M2 will still rise marginally, 1 The large gap in monthly broad liquidity (\"M2-Social Financing\" growth rate gap) may narrow accordingly.', 'authorid': UUID('98f8b909-aa54-50f4-942a-ef804aa95c8e'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9285311065614223, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'O60RE1DTCA7FNM2U9IC9SU5GU3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'O60RE1DTCA7FNM2U9IC9SU5GU3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('262c54ca-c2bd-5f6b-ac50-9b6c8d749cc3'), 'title': 'Comments on LPR interest rate cut on February 20, 2024: Boost confidence and boost the property market', 'author': 'Tan Zhuo, Niu Mengqi', 'orgName': '招商银行', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-02-23', 'encodeUrl': '4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XB6bA+1ZXAae03dpTfbOUt0=', 'researcher': '谭卓,牛梦琦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000281853', '11000353933'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XB6bA+1ZXAae03dpTfbOUt0=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623227356_1.pdf?1708709248000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623227356_1.pdf?1708709248000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on LPR interest rate cut on February 20, 2024: Boost confidence and boost the property market', 'originalAuthor': '谭卓,牛梦琦', 'originalContent': '2月20日，中国人民银行公布贷款市场报价利率，1年期LPR保持不变为3.45%，5年期以上LPR下降25bp至3.95%。一、政策特征：降幅超预期，两个非对称本次降息幅度总体超出预期，有两点主要特征。一是LPR非对称调降。1年期LPR不变而5年期以上LPR下调，期限溢价缩窄至历史新低50bp。本次5年期以上LPR调降高达25bp，是自2019年8月LPR报价制度改革以来的单次最大降幅。二是在本月MLF按兵不动的情况下，通过压缩加点调降LPR。5年期以上LPR加点下调25bp至145bp，金融机构将进一步加大向实体经济让利的力度。本次降息充分显示了宏观政策“稳增长”的决心，一方面发挥货币政策的信号作用和预期管理功能，另一方面增强金融服务实体经济的质效。二、政策意图：提振信心，托举楼市本次LPR降息落地时点基本符合市场预期。去年四季度，GDP两年复合增速降至4.0%，环比下滑0.4pct。开年以来，各项数据未见明显改善，经济内生动能仍待巩固。2月18号，央行主管媒体《金融时报》率先发声，表示本月LPR可能下行，5年期以上LPR下行可能性更大。2天后，LPR非对称降息随即落地。考虑到当前商业银行净息差总体承压，去年末以来央行通过前瞻部署，降低了商业银行负债端成本。一是2023年12月商业银行再下调各期限存款利率10-25bp，自2022年以来已累计四次调降存款利率，中长期存款到期重定价推动商业银行负债端成本改善。二是年初央行降准0.5pct和支农支小再贷款、再贴现利率下调0.25pct，均有利于银行节省资金成本。据测算，年初降准可释放长期资金约1万亿，降低商业银行融资成本约88亿元。此次LPR降息的成效主要将体现在三个方面。一是释放积极信号，提振私人部门信心。目前私人部门信心不足、经济金融行为收缩，居民存款持续高增、货币流通速度下降、资本市场表现欠佳。本次超预期降息贯彻了中央经济工作会议“强化宏观政策逆周期和跨周期调节”的要求，有助于“稳市场”“稳信心”。二是降低按揭成本，提升居民购房与消费能力。去年下半年以来，房地产供需两端政策密集发力，今年尽��二手房有所回暖，但新房销售仍然低迷，春节期间面积同比仍然下降近三成。此外，居民部门存在提前还贷现象，2023年个人住房贷款余额同比下降5,300亿，为2008年以来首次。本次5年期以上LPR定价下调后，增量和存量房贷利率均将进一步下调，可直接降低购房成本、提升居民消费能力。三是熨平信贷利率曲线，优化金融资源配置。近期债券利率曲线和存款利率曲线均呈现明显的平坦化趋势，2024年1月10Y-1Y国债期限利差较去年6月收窄约28bp，折射出债市的悲观预期。相较之下，贷款利率曲线仍然较为陡峭。本次降息将使贷款利率曲线更为平坦化，有助于提振长期信贷需求。三、政策前瞻：仍有宽松空间总体上看，本次LPR调降力度超出预期，释放出明确的“稳增长”信号，有助于鼓舞私人部门信心、托举楼市、提振消费。前瞻地看，未来货币政策仍有宽松空间。目前人民币贷款加权平均利率已降至历史新低4.35%，较疫前大幅下降近140bp，实体经济融资成本显著下行。但由于通胀低迷，实际利率仍处相对高位。在通胀低迷叠加债务高企的背景下，货币政策需与财政政策协调配合、发挥张力，继续保持积极姿态。美联储政策转向预期更为明朗之时，或是我国货币政策进一步操作之机。', 'content': 'On February 20, the People\\'s Bank of China announced the loan market quotation rate. The 1-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.45%, and the 5-year and above LPR dropped by 25bp to 3.95%. 1. Policy characteristics: The rate of reduction exceeded expectations. The two asymmetric rate cuts generally exceeded expectations. There are two main characteristics. The first is the asymmetric reduction of LPR. The 1-year LPR remains unchanged while the LPR over 5 years is lowered, and the term premium narrows to a record low of 50bp. This LPR reduction of more than 5 years is as high as 25bp, which is the largest single reduction since the reform of the LPR quotation system in August 2019. The second is to lower LPR by compressing and adding points while MLF remains unchanged this month. The LPR markup for maturities over 5 years has been reduced by 25bp to 145bp, and financial institutions will further increase their efforts to provide profits to the real economy. This interest rate cut fully demonstrates the determination of macroeconomic policies to \"stabilize growth\". On the one hand, it gives full play to the signaling role and expectation management function of monetary policy, and on the other hand, it enhances the quality and effectiveness of financial services for the real economy. 2. Policy intention: to boost confidence and boost the property market. The timing of this LPR interest rate cut is basically in line with market expectations. In the fourth quarter of last year, the two-year compound growth rate of GDP dropped to 4.0%, down 0.4% from the previous quarter. Since the beginning of the year, various data have not improved significantly, and the endogenous dynamism of the economy still needs to be consolidated. On February 18, the Financial Times, the media in charge of the central bank, was the first to speak out, saying that the LPR may fall this month, and the LPR over 5 years is more likely to fall. Two days later, the LPR asymmetric interest rate cut was implemented. Considering that the net interest margins of commercial banks are currently under overall pressure, the central bank has reduced the liability-side costs of commercial banks through forward-looking deployment since the end of last year. First, in December 2023, commercial banks will further reduce deposit interest rates of various maturities by 10-25bp. Since 2022, deposit interest rates have been reduced four times in total. The maturity repricing of medium and long-term deposits has promoted the improvement of liability-side costs of commercial banks. Second, at the beginning of the year, the central bank lowered the required reserve ratio by 0.5pct, refinanced to support agriculture and small businesses, and cut the rediscount rate by 0.25pct, which will help banks save capital costs. According to estimates, the RRR cut at the beginning of the year can release about 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds and reduce the financing costs of commercial banks by about 8.8 billion yuan. The effectiveness of this LPR interest rate cut will be mainly reflected in three aspects. The first is to release positive signals and boost private sector confidence. At present, private sector confidence is low, economic and financial activities are shrinking, residents\\' deposits continue to increase, the velocity of money circulation is declining, and the capital market is performing poorly. This unexpected rate cut implements the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference to \"strengthen counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustments in macroeconomic policies\" and will help \"stabilize the market\" and \"stabilize confidence.\" The second is to reduce mortgage costs and improve residents’ home purchasing and consumption capabilities. Since the second half of last year, policies on both sides of real estate supply and demand have been intensively implemented. Although second-hand housing has rebounded this year, new home sales are still sluggish, and the area during the Spring Festival still dropped by nearly 30% year-on-year. In addition, there is a phenomenon of early repayment of loans in the residential sector. The balance of personal housing loans in 2023 will drop by 530 billion year-on-year, which is the first time since 2008. After this reduction in LPR pricing for periods of more than 5 years, both incremental and existing mortgage interest rates will be further reduced, which can directly reduce the cost of home purchase and increase residents\\' spending power. The third is to flatten the credit interest rate curve and optimize the allocation of financial resources. Both the bond interest rate curve and the deposit interest rate curve have shown an obvious flattening trend recently. The term spread of 10Y-1Y government bonds in January 2024 narrowed by about 28bp compared with June last year, reflecting the pessimistic expectations of the bond market. In comparison, the loan interest rate curve remains steep. This interest rate cut will flatten the loan interest rate curve and help boost long-term credit demand. 3. Policy Prospects: There is still room for easing. Overall, this LPR cut is stronger than expected and sends a clear signal of \"stable growth\", which will help inspire confidence in the private sector, boost the property market, and boost consumption. Looking forward, there is still room for easing monetary policy in the future. At present, the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans has dropped to a record low of 4.35%, a significant decrease of nearly 140bp from before the epidemic, and the financing cost of the real economy has dropped significantly. But with inflation subdued, real interest rates remain relatively high. In the context of low inflation and high debt, monetary policy needs to coordinate with fiscal policy and exert tension to continue to maintain a positive attitude. When the Fed\\'s policy shift is expected to be clearer, it may be an opportunity for further manipulation of my country\\'s monetary policy.', 'authorid': UUID('98f8b909-aa54-50f4-942a-ef804aa95c8e'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8296288587152958, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '333A9ISHI29C6TJQLG2OG4TBKBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:20 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '333A9ISHI29C6TJQLG2OG4TBKBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7e7ae545-9fe6-51ee-bdb5-5ccffd0e3742'), 'title': 'Four key points of the \"Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2023\": Strengthen countercyclical adjustment and focus on high-quality investment', 'author': 'Tan Zhuo, Zhang Qiaoxu, Niu Mengqi, Zhan Qi', 'orgName': '招商银行', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-02-23', 'encodeUrl': '4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XNK4Ro+GqOX4UR58R+YqCBE=', 'researcher': '谭卓,张巧栩,牛梦琦,占祺', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000281853', '11000374832', '11000353933', '11000323736'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XNK4Ro+GqOX4UR58R+YqCBE=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623227355_1.pdf?1708709337000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623227355_1.pdf?1708709337000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Four key points of the \"Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2023\": Strengthen countercyclical adjustment and focus on high-quality investment', 'originalAuthor': '谭卓,张巧栩,牛梦琦,占祺', 'originalContent': '2月8日，央行发布《2023年四季度货币政策执行报告》（下称《报告》）。对此我们重点关注以下四个方面：一、形势判断：直面问题，坚定信心《报告》认为我国经济持续回升向好“需要克服一些困难和挑战”。从国际看，发达经济体本轮加息周期或已结束，但高利率的滞后影响还将持续显现；2024年作为全球选举大年，世界政治经济形势的不确定性可能增大。从国内看，经济大循环存在堵点，消费和民间投资需求不足，制造业PMI连续4个月位于收缩区间，社会预期依然偏弱。对此，《报告》表示“既要正视困难，又要增强信心和底气”，指出“要坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破，扎实推动高质量发展，在发展中解决问题”。通胀方面，《报告》认为“物价水平较低背后反映的是经济有效需求不足、总供求恢复不同步”，预计“未来随着基数效应逐步减弱，商品和服务需求的持续恢复，物价总体将呈温和回升态势”，再度重申“不存在长期通缩或通胀的基础”。二、政策立场：“逆周期”调节重要性上升《报告》要求“强化宏观政策逆周期和跨周期调节，坚持把金融服务实体经济作为根本宗旨，始终保持货币政策的稳健性，增强宏观政策取向一致性”。本次《报告》延续了中央经济工作会议的表述，将“逆周期”置于“跨周期”之前，次序相较三季度《报告》及中央金融工作会议发生了调换，表明政策加力“稳增长”的意愿上升。从广义流动性来看，《报告》要求“保持社融规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配”。直接融资方面，要充分发挥债券市场的融资功能，避免单一依赖信贷市场，要“合理把握债券与信贷两个最大融资市场的关系，继续推动公司信用类债券和金融债券市场发展”。去年新增人民币贷款22.7万亿，同比多增1.4万亿；而企业债仅新增1.6万亿，同比少增6,400亿。这既源于企业融资需求疲弱，也由于企业债利率阶段性高于贷款利率。未来随着经济进一步修复，企业债融资规模有望回升。信贷方面，要“准确把握货币信贷供需规律和新特点，引导信贷合理增长、均衡投放”。专栏1详细阐述了信贷供需规律和新特点的内涵，包括三个方面。一是要求信贷高质量投放。一方面，引导金融做好“五篇大文章”，加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度，相关贷款占比上升；另一方面，房地产和地方融资平台等传统动能贷款增速放缓，占比逐渐下降。一增一降之下，未来信贷总量增速或有所回落，质效有望上升。二是注重盘活低效存量资源。一方面，金融机构盘活存量进行债务重组，虽然不体现为贷款增量，但可通过转投更优质的市场主体，提升资金能效；另一方面，商业银行加大不良贷款核销，可加快市场出清支持实体经济，也纳入社会融资规模统计。三是减少对货币信贷月度波动的过度关注。去年1季度信贷“开门红”创历史天量，但二季度增速快速回落，引发市场波动。《报告》要求“信贷支持要把握好‘度’，平抑不正当竞争、‘冲时点’等不合理的信贷投放，而不是改变金融机构信贷投放正常的季节规律，更好地促进信贷投放节奏与实体经济发展的实际需要相匹配”。从狭义流动性来看，《报告》要求“保持流动性合理充裕”。2023年央行降准2次共50bp，释放长期流动性超1万亿，MLF超额续作2.5万亿，2023年末公开市场逆回购操作余额为2.8万亿，同比增1.1万亿。各项政策工具共同作用下，年末DR007利率为1.91%，较上年同期回落45bp，金融机构超额准备金率为2.1%，比上年末高0.1pct。前瞻地看，一方面，央行将持续加强对银行体系流动性供求和金融市场变化的分析监测，保持货币市场利率平稳运行；另一方面，运用多种货币政策工具，保障政府债券顺利发行。考虑到2024年财政政策整体积极程度或高于2023年，政府债发行规模有望扩张，货币政策要协调配合，创造良好的流动性环境。三、利率政策：畅通传导渠道《报告》要求“深入推进利率市场化改革，畅通货币政策传导渠道”。存款方面，要求“落实存款利率市场化调整机制，着力稳定银行负债成本”。2023年商业银行三次下调存款利率，同时央行两次降准共50bp，降低商业银行负债成本约88亿元。贷款方面，要求“发挥贷款市场报价利率改革效能，加强行业自律协调和管理，…，理顺贷款利率与债券收益率等市场利率的关系，维护市场竞争秩序”。专栏2回顾总结了利率自律机制过往十年的发展历程及工作成效，指出未来工作重点在于“督促银行持续健全存贷款利率定价机制，坚持风险定价原则，切实理顺信贷市场和债券市场、大银行和中小银行之间的利率关系”，指向市场机制将在金融资源配置中起到更为重要的作用。利率政策的最终目标在于“推动社会综合融资成本稳中有降”。去年12月，贷款加权平均利率为3.83%，同比下降31bp。其中，一般贷款和企业贷款加权平均利率分别为4.35%和3.75%，同比均下降22bp。四、金融开放：推进双边本币互换，建设香港国际金融中心《报告》要求“有序推进人民币国际化，进一步扩大人民币在跨境贸易和投资中的使用……稳步推进人民币资本项目可兑换”。专栏3提出稳步推进央行间双边本币互换，便利双边贸易和投资。专栏4要求进一步深化内地与香港金融合作，支持香港国际金融中心建设，推动香港加快融入国家发展大局，支持香港打造亚太地区金融科技枢纽。', 'content': '2月8日，央行发布《2023年四季度货币政策执行报告》（下称《报告》）。对此我们重点关注以下四个方面：一、形势判断：直面问题，坚定信心《报告》认为我国经济持续回升向好“需要克服一些困难和挑战”。从国际看，发达经济体本轮加息周期或已结束，但高利率的滞后影响还将持续显现；2024年作为全球选举大年，世界政治经济形势的不确定性可能增大。从国内看，经济大循环存在堵点，消费和民间投资需求不足，制造业PMI连续4个月位于收缩区间，社会预期依然偏弱。对此，《报告》表示“既要正视困难，又要增强信心和底气”，指出“要坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破，扎实推动高质量发展，在发展中解决问题”。通胀方面，《报告》认为“物价水平较低背后反映的是经济有效需求不足、总供求恢复不同步”，预计“未来随着基数效应逐步减弱，商品和服务需求的持续恢复，物价总体将呈温和回升态势”，再度重申“不存在长期通缩或通胀的基础”。二、政策立场：“逆周期”调节重要性上升《报告》要求“强化宏观政策逆周期和跨周期调节，坚持把金融服务实体经济作为根本宗旨，始终保持货币政策的稳健性，增强宏观政策取向一致性”。本次《报告》延续了中央经济工作会议的表述，将“逆周期”置于“跨周期”之前，次序相较三季度《报告》及中央金融工作会议发生了调换，表明政策加力“稳增长”的意愿上升。从广义流动性来看，《报告》要求“保持社融规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配”。直接融资方面，要充分发挥债券市场的融资功能，避免单一依赖信贷市场，要“合理把握债券与信贷两个最大融资市场的关系，继续推动公司信用类债券和金融债券市场发展”。去年新增人民币贷款22.7万亿，同比多增1.4万亿；而企业债仅新增1.6万亿，同比少增6,400亿。这既源于企业融资需求疲弱，也由于企业债利率阶段性高于贷款利率。未来随着经济进一步修复，企业债融资规模有望回升。信贷方面，要“准确把握货币信贷供需规律和新特点，引导信贷合理增长、均衡投放”。专栏1详细阐述了信贷供需规律和新特点的内涵，包括三个方面。一是要求信贷高质量投放。一方面，引导金融做好“五篇大文章”，加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度，相关贷款占比上升；另一方面，房地产和地方融资平台等传统动能贷款增速放缓，占比逐渐下降。一增一降之下，未来信贷总量增速或有所回落，质效有望上升。二是注重盘活低效存量资源。一方面，金融机构盘活存量进行债务重组，虽然不体现为贷款增量，但可通过转投更优质的市场主体，提升资金能效；另一方面，商业银行加大不良贷款核销，可加快市场出清支持实体经济，也纳入社会融资规模统计。三是减少对货币信贷月度波动的过度关注。去年1季度信贷“开门红”创历史天量，但二季度增速快速回落，引发市场波动。《报告》要求“信贷支持要把握好‘度’，平抑不正当竞争、‘冲时点’等不合理的信贷投放，而不是改变金融机构信贷投放正常的季节规律，更好地促进信贷投放节奏与实体经济发展的实际需要相匹配”。从狭义流动性来看，《报告》要求“保持流动性合理充裕”。2023年央行降准2次共50bp，释放长期流动性超1万亿，MLF超额续作2.5万亿，2023年末公开市场逆回购操作余额为2.8万亿，同比增1.1万亿。各项政策工具共同作用下，年末DR007利率为1.91%，较上年同期回落45bp，金融机构超额准备金率为2.1%，比上年末高0.1pct。前瞻地看，一方面，央行将持续加强对银行体系流动性供求和金融市场变化的分析监测，保持货币市场利率平稳运行；另一方面，运用多种货币政策工具，保障政府债券顺利发行。考虑到2024年财政政策整体积极程度或高于2023年，政府债发行规模有望扩张，货币政策要协调配合，创造良好的流动性环境。三、利率政策：畅通传导渠道《报告》要求“深入推进利率市场化改革，畅通货币政策传导渠道”。存款方面，要求“落实存款利率市场化调整机制，着力稳定银行负债成本”。2023年商业银行三次下调存款利率，同时央行两次降准共50bp，降低商业银行负债成本约88亿元。贷款方面，要求“发挥贷款市场报价利率改革效能，加强行业自律协调和管理，…，理顺贷款利率与债��收益率等市场利率的关系，维护市场竞争秩序”。专栏2回顾总结了利率自律机制过往十年的发展历程及工作成效，指出未来工作重点在于“督促银行持续健全存贷款利率定价机制，坚持风险定价原则，切实理顺信贷市场和债券市场、大银行和中小银行之间的利率关系”，指向市场机制将在金融资源配置中起到更为重要的作用。利率政策的最终目标在于“推动社会综合融资成本稳中有降”。去年12月，贷款加权平均利率为3.83%，同比下降31bp。其中，一般贷款和企业贷款加权平均利率分别为4.35%和3.75%，同比均下降22bp。四、金融开放：推进双边本币互换，建设香港国际金融中心《报告》要求“有序推进人民币国际化，进一步扩大人民币在跨境贸易和投资中的使用……稳步推进人民币资本项目可兑换”。专栏3提出稳步推进央行间双边本币互换，便利双边贸易和投资。专栏4要求进一步深化内地与香港金融合作，支持香港国际金融中心建设，推动香港加快融入国家发展大局，支持香港打造亚太地区金融科技枢纽。', 'authorid': UUID('77ca8fb6-bac1-5302-a189-bb9f197641d8'), 'sentimentScore': 0.054370131343603134, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'INOT2A5GD22A7417D9OO11NAHNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:25 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'INOT2A5GD22A7417D9OO11NAHNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b9b9eace-1377-5152-9d1c-79057bb4b3f4'), 'title': 'Global Market Pulse (February 2024)', 'author': 'Jiang Yue, Zhao Wenli', 'orgName': '建银国际证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80101867', 'orgSName': '建银国际证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-23', 'encodeUrl': '4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XNdzfQMXD8oembVjg1sB14o=', 'researcher': '姜越,赵文利', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000440636', '11000302036'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XNdzfQMXD8oembVjg1sB14o=', 'site': 'CCB International Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '建银国际证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623227350_1.pdf?1708709972000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623227350_1.pdf?1708709972000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Global Market Pulse (February 2024)', 'originalAuthor': '姜越,赵文利', 'originalContent': '市场焦点：日本股市的围城内外在2023年上涨28%之后，日本股市在2024年继续反弹，达到38000点水平，距离1989年的最高点38915点仅几步之遥。时隔35年，日本股市似乎终于回到了上世纪80年代的鼎盛时期。但历史从来不会以同样的方式重演，因此参与其中的参与者也在发生变化。仔细研究一下日本的交易数据，就会发现日本经纪商交易中的一个奇特“围城”现象：在外国投资者越来越多地投资日本股票、国内公司回购股票的同时，日本散户投资者似乎在2023年里放弃了本土的股票市场。根据对主要经纪商的调查，外国投资者是东证（东京证券交易所）主板市场的主要交易力量。2023年，外国投资者的交易额（买入和卖出）占东证主板市场经纪交易总额的近70%，而国内个人和机构的交易额仅分别占23%和7%。净买入数据显示，外国投资者和企业法人是日本股票的净买方，经纪交易总额分别为34950亿日元和48520亿日元，而日本国内个人投资者是净卖方，经纪交易净卖出额为33230亿日元。这似乎可以用1989年泡沫破灭后日本股票市场参与者的变化来解释。从20世纪80年代到近年年代，外国投资者持有的日本股票份额从5%上升到30%，而本国个人持有的份额则从30%左右下降到20%以下。目前，日本家庭资产的50%以上由现金和存款构成，截至2023年9月，约为1113万亿日元（约7.41万亿美元）。市场一直期待，岸田首相推出的新改革，包括日本个人储蓄账户（NISA）计划改革，可能会鼓励日本家庭将储蓄转为投资。这有可能将这万亿日元的储蓄转化为股票市场的新动力。然而，我们对NISA等新改革能吸引国内散户投资者从而支持股市的观点持怀疑态度。至少在短期内，日本个人可能会继续把储蓄放在首位。即使他们愿意投资，但只要日元对美元贬值，投资海外证券对国内散户投资者的吸引力就会增加。我们认为，日本股市很可能在近期内超过1989年的最高点38,915点。然而，35年前给国内投资者造成的创伤需要时间来愈合。散户投资者可能仍然倾向于持币观望，而外国投资者可能仍然是这场看似流行的游戏的主要参与者。', 'content': 'Market Focus: Japan\\'s stock market is under siege. After rising 28% in 2023, Japan\\'s stock market continued to rebound in 2024, reaching the 38,000 level, just steps away from the 1989 high of 38,915 points. After 35 years, the Japanese stock market seems to have finally returned to its heyday in the 1980s. But history never repeats itself the same way, so the players involved change. A closer look at Japanese trading data reveals a peculiar \"siege\" phenomenon in Japanese brokerage transactions: While foreign investors are increasingly investing in Japanese stocks and domestic companies are buying back shares, Japanese retail investors seem to be Abandon the local stock market in 2023. According to a survey of major brokers, foreign investors are the main trading force on the Topix (Tokyo Stock Exchange) main market. In 2023, the transaction volume (buying and selling) of foreign investors will account for nearly 70% of the total brokerage transactions on the Topix main board market, while the transaction volume of domestic individuals and institutions will only account for 23% and 7% respectively. Net buying data shows that foreign investors and corporate entities are net buyers of Japanese stocks, with total brokerage transactions of 3,495 billion yen and 4,852 billion yen respectively, while Japanese domestic individual investors are net sellers, with brokerage transactions net sales It is 3323 billion yen. This seems to be explained by changes in Japanese stock market participants after the bubble burst in 1989. From the 1980s to recent years, the share of Japanese stocks held by foreign investors rose from 5% to 30%, while the share held by domestic individuals fell from about 30% to less than 20%. Currently, more than 50% of Japanese household assets consist of cash and deposits, which as of September 2023 is approximately 1,113 trillion yen (approximately US$7.41 trillion). The market has been expecting that new reforms introduced by Prime Minister Kishida, including reforms to the Japanese Personal Savings Account (NISA) program, may encourage Japanese households to turn their savings into investments. This has the potential to transform these trillions of yen in savings into new impetus for the stock market. However, we are skeptical about the idea that new reforms such as NISA can attract domestic retail investors and thereby support the stock market. At least in the short term, Japanese individuals are likely to continue to prioritize saving. Even if they are willing to invest, investing in overseas securities will become more attractive to domestic retail investors as long as the yen weakens against the dollar. We believe that the Japanese stock market is likely to surpass the 1989 peak of 38,915 points in the near future. However, the wounds inflicted on domestic investors 35 years ago will take time to heal. Retail investors may still prefer to stay on the sidelines, while foreign investors may remain major players in this seemingly popular game.', 'authorid': UUID('b8ca0714-ab9a-587b-aeaf-4d10096ecd4d'), 'sentimentScore': -0.21287082135677338, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'BC050AJHNF4HIFQLER0KUBBVARVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:27 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'BC050AJHNF4HIFQLER0KUBBVARVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9c1ce1ed-99c4-588f-99ae-797d829bec1c'), 'title': 'Macro Topic: A Policy Path to Low Inflation', 'author': 'Song Ippei', 'orgName': '东方财富证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000126', 'orgSName': '东方财富证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-23', 'encodeUrl': '4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XPeL7nQcE/2DC4XXF40zEgU=', 'researcher': '曲一平', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000360738'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XPeL7nQcE/2DC4XXF40zEgU=', 'site': 'Oriental Fortune Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东方财富证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623209380_1.pdf?1708701099000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623209380_1.pdf?1708701099000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Topic: A Policy Path to Low Inflation', 'originalAuthor': '曲一平', 'originalContent': '【策略观点】维持2%左右的通胀水平成为各国央行共识。适度通胀能够有效刺激消费和投资需求，有益于经济的稳定发展和社会的稳定，因此各主要经济体央行均把维持通胀水平稳定作为货币政策的核心目标之一。如美联储在近期议息会议纪要中不断强调“将长期通胀水平控制在2%左右”的目标，并为此大幅调整货币政策；近年来我国CPI目标设定在3%左右。当前国内低物价的根源，既有生产力提升的正面因素��也有需求不足、流动性传导不畅的负面因素。从货币层面看，国内货币政策“以我为主”，流动性保持合理充裕，货币因素对国内通胀的影响偏正向；从供给端看，新能源等部分行业产品产量上升，价格趋降，但在国民经济中比重有限，不是造成低物价的主要原因；从需求端看，内需偏弱拖累货币周转效率，导致价格水平回落。海外经验表明，走出需求不足和低通胀需要货币政策重大调整。历史上日本、欧元区等主要海外发达经济体在经历外部冲击后也会面临需求不足、通胀低迷的问题，采取的应对措施通常是大幅调整货币政策，实施“零利率”甚至“负利率”等举措，宽货币持续时间在8-10年。激进的货币政策有助于走出低通胀，但也带来一定后遗症，如日本面临政府债务膨胀和本币汇率波动，欧元区面临资本净流出压力。保持流动性宽松趋势和谨慎去产能或为我国走出低通胀的政策路线。一方面，对于由生产力提升引发的正面物价下行因素，预计将坚持“先立后破”，谨慎去产能。另一方面，对于需求不足造成的低物价，货币政策宽松或为主要应对方法，预计降息降准短期仍有空间，低利率、宽信用环境大概率维持。【风险提示】美联储降息进度不及预期，中美利差倒挂现象加剧，国内货币政策调整阻力增大外需超预期回落，拖累我国制造业去库存', 'content': '[Strategic View] Maintaining an inflation level of around 2% has become the consensus of central banks around the world. Moderate inflation can effectively stimulate consumption and investment demand, and is beneficial to the stable development of the economy and social stability. Therefore, the central banks of all major economies regard maintaining stable inflation levels as one of the core goals of monetary policy. For example, the Federal Reserve has continuously emphasized the goal of \"controlling long-term inflation at around 2%\" in the minutes of its recent interest rate meeting, and has significantly adjusted its monetary policy to this end; in recent years, my country\\'s CPI target has been set at around 3%. The root causes of the current low domestic prices include both the positive factors of increased productivity and the negative factors of insufficient demand and poor liquidity transmission. From a monetary perspective, domestic monetary policy is \"centered on me\", liquidity remains reasonably abundant, and monetary factors have a positive impact on domestic inflation; from a supply side perspective, the output of products in some industries such as new energy has increased, and prices have tended to fall. However, its limited proportion in the national economy is not the main reason for low prices; from the demand side, weak domestic demand drags down currency turnover efficiency, causing the price level to fall. Overseas experience shows that getting out of insufficient demand and low inflation requires major adjustments to monetary policy. Historically, major overseas developed economies such as Japan and the Eurozone have also faced problems of insufficient demand and low inflation after experiencing external shocks. The response measures they have taken have usually been to significantly adjust monetary policies and implement measures such as \"zero interest rates\" or even \"negative interest rates.\" , the broad currency duration is 8-10 years. Radical monetary policy can help get out of low inflation, but it also brings certain sequelae. For example, Japan faces government debt expansion and currency exchange rate fluctuations, and the Eurozone faces net capital outflow pressure. Maintaining the trend of loose liquidity and cautiously cutting overcapacity may lead to a policy path of low inflation for our country. On the one hand, in response to the positive downward price factors caused by productivity improvements, it is expected to adhere to the principle of \"establishing first and then breaking\" and cautiously reduce overcapacity. On the other hand, loose monetary policy may be the main response to low prices caused by insufficient demand. It is expected that there will still be room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in the short term, and low interest rates and an easy credit environment are likely to be maintained. [Risk Warning] The Fed\\'s interest rate cut progress is less than expected, the inversion of interest rates between China and the United States has intensified, and the resistance to domestic monetary policy adjustments has increased. External demand has fallen more than expected, dragging down the destocking of my country\\'s manufacturing industry.', 'authorid': UUID('28ee33bf-6be5-5702-b781-ed6b30936433'), 'sentimentScore': 0.2665464896708727, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '56UBEE66TNGELF4UF9BHSGIC9RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:31 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '56UBEE66TNGELF4UF9BHSGIC9RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c0cc1915-f2f4-572e-a031-bd35c9c5fde6'), 'title': 'Risk management of asset securitization', 'author': 'Wang Qian', 'orgName': '中债登公司', 'orgCode': '80002557', 'orgSName': '中债登公司', 'publishDate': '2024-02-23', 'encodeUrl': '4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XDYy/DcZM/cCfPDA4d3y0gc=', 'researcher': '王倩', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000363232'], 'count': 1, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XDYy/DcZM/cCfPDA4d3y0gc=', 'site': 'China Bond Lending Company', 'originalSite': '中债登公司', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623201664_1.pdf?1708702228000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623201664_1.pdf?1708702228000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Risk management of asset securitization', 'originalAuthor': '王倩', 'originalContent': '资产证券化的概念与目的我们通常所谈及的证券化，是指将一种非证券形式的资产转化为资本市场上某种形式的证券的过程。“证券”是资本市场的一种可交易的金融工具。例如，银行可以把它发放贷款产生的未来资金流打包到一起，出售给投资者，以达到融资的目的。在资产证券化的过程中，人们将各种流动性较弱的（相对）类似的资产打包放到一起，作为证券出售给第三方投资者。例如，经过证券化过程最终所生成的证券如果是以房地产作为抵押的，则被称为房地产抵押证券，即MBS。对于非银行机构来说，不去发行企业债券，而去选择发行资产抵押债券的原因在于：①能够潜在地减少融资成本；②能够分散融资途径；③处置不良资产。对于银行机构来说，采用资产证券化进行融资的原因在于，它可以使停留在银行资产负债表商的资产产生价值。典型的资产有住房抵押贷款、企业债券、零售贷款以及信用卡贷款。促使银行对其部分资产进行证券化的原因：①提高ROE；②降低资本需求；③获得更优惠的融资；④平衡表资产管理；⑤风险管理与信用风险转移。', 'content': 'The concept and purpose of asset securitization. The securitization we usually talk about refers to the process of converting a non-security asset into some form of security in the capital market. A \"security\" is a tradable financial instrument in the capital market. For example, a bank can package together the future capital flows generated by its loans and sell them to investors for financing purposes. In the process of asset securitization, people package various illiquid (relatively) similar assets together and sell them as securities to third-party investors. For example, if the securities finally generated through the securitization process are mortgaged by real estate, they are called real estate mortgage-backed securities, or MBS. For non-bank institutions, the reasons for choosing to issue asset-backed bonds instead of corporate bonds are: 1. It can potentially reduce financing costs; 2. It can diversify financing channels; 3. Dispose of non-performing assets. For banking institutions, the reason for using asset securitization for financing is that it can generate value for the assets that remain on the bank\\'s balance sheet. Typical assets include home mortgages, corporate bonds, retail loans, and credit card loans. Reasons that prompt banks to securitize part of their assets: ① Increase ROE; ② Reduce capital requirements; ③ Obtain more favorable financing; ④ Balance sheet asset management; ⑤ Risk management and credit risk transfer.', 'authorid': UUID('04e9359d-2c14-5102-8921-c703189ba58f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.0009176991879940033, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'DT8RJIM57KD2MR8JN8JIJQ26OFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:33 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'DT8RJIM57KD2MR8JN8JIJQ26OFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('bdbdb85e-838c-5d6e-a216-3d29d11d9124'), 'title': 'Brief commentary on the Fed meeting minutes: description is more important than analysis', 'author': 'Zhaoyue', 'orgName': '致富证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80102269', 'orgSName': '致富证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-23', 'encodeUrl': '4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XChtWyyDY0NxICkg6MjpEXM=', 'researcher': '肇越', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000319632'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XChtWyyDY0NxICkg6MjpEXM=', 'site': 'CHIEF SECURITIES LIMITED', 'originalSite': '致富证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623199574_1.pdf?1708699004000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623199574_1.pdf?1708699004000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Brief commentary on the Fed meeting minutes: description is more important than analysis', 'originalAuthor': '肇越', 'originalContent': '昨晚美联储公布了1月议息会议的纪要。根据会议纪要披露的一些细节内容，可以对于美联储未来货币政策走向做出一些预判。一、美联储会议对于美国经济形势的观点美联储认为，目前美国经济形势好于去年12月会议做出的预测。第四季度美国经济在净出口和库存投资的推动下，环比年化增速超过市场预期，就业市场也相对稳定，通货膨胀虽然有所缓解，但是依旧处于相对高位。首先，整体经济增速有所下降，但是依旧高于潜在经济增长。去年实施的紧缩货币政策，由于存在时间滞后效应，目前阶段主要体现在对于金融市场和信贷市场的影响上，对于实体经济的抑制作用还没有充分体现，因此判断2024年美国经济仍然会高于经济的潜在增长；2025年受到紧缩政策的遏制，实际经济增长率会出现超调低于潜在增长，2026年经济增速将恢复到潜在增长附近。当前的紧缩性货币政策，一方面将导致金融条件收紧，继续对经济活动和通货膨胀施加下行压力；另一方面，家庭资产负债表的恶化可能导致消费减速超过预期。其次，通货膨胀继续放慢。无论是PCE，还是核心PCE都低于一年前水平，尤其是去年下半年通货膨胀明显下降。一方面由于新签租约的租金下降，住房服务价格将进一步下降（详细内容，请见2024年2月21日报告《对于美国1月份CPI数据的结构解读》）；另一方面由于消费市场逐渐降温，企业很难将价格上涨的压力转嫁给消费者。据此判断2024年PCE和核心PCE还将逐渐下降。', 'content': 'Last night the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its January interest rate meeting. Based on some details disclosed in the meeting minutes, some predictions can be made about the future direction of the Fed\\'s monetary policy. 1. The Federal Reserve’s meeting’s views on the U.S. economic situation. The Federal Reserve believes that the current U.S. economic situation is better than the forecast made at last December’s meeting. In the fourth quarter, driven by net exports and inventory investment, the U.S. economy\\'s quarter-on-quarter annualized growth exceeded market expectations. The job market was also relatively stable. Although inflation has eased, it is still at a relatively high level. First, the overall economic growth rate has declined, but it is still higher than potential economic growth. Due to the time lag effect of the tightening monetary policy implemented last year, the current stage is mainly reflected in the impact on the financial market and credit market, and the inhibitory effect on the real economy has not been fully reflected. Therefore, it is judged that the U.S. economy will still be higher than the economy in 2024 potential growth; constrained by tightening policies in 2025, the actual economic growth rate will overshoot and be lower than the potential growth, and the economic growth rate will return to near the potential growth in 2026. On the one hand, the current tightening monetary policy will lead to the tightening of financial conditions and continue to exert downward pressure on economic activity and inflation; on the other hand, the deterioration of household balance sheets may lead to a larger-than-expected slowdown in consumption. Second, inflation continues to slow. Both PCE and core PCE are lower than a year ago, especially in the second half of last year when inflation dropped significantly. On the one hand, due to the decline in rents for newly signed leases, the price of housing services will further decline (for details, please see the report \"Structural Interpretation of U.S. CPI Data in January\" on February 21, 2024); on the other hand, due to the gradual cooling of the consumer market , it is difficult for companies to pass on the pressure of rising prices to consumers. Based on this, it is judged that PCE and core PCE will gradually decline in 2024.', 'authorid': UUID('bd4b1eb2-e6f0-5211-9682-a3f7576d1e12'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6984887681901455, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GFOFDA4M1F7Q8SVPF3OBIKON6FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:36 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GFOFDA4M1F7Q8SVPF3OBIKON6FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('eeda0a98-5621-54d1-a3f4-ce6d9c5721bd'), 'title': 'Macro Observation Issue 13, 2024 (Total Issue 524): Virtuous Cycle of Consumption Investment: Logic, Potential and Path*', 'author': 'Li Peijia', 'orgName': '中国银行', 'orgCode': '80001122', 'orgSName': '中国银行', 'publishDate': '2024-02-23', 'encodeUrl': '4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XK/eeRCaLqKMqnS93GHt2SU=', 'researcher': '李佩珈', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000220524'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XK/eeRCaLqKMqnS93GHt2SU=', 'site': 'Bank of China', 'originalSite': '中国银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623199508_1.pdf?1708699190000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623199508_1.pdf?1708699190000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Observation Issue 13, 2024 (Total Issue 524): Virtuous Cycle of Consumption Investment: Logic, Potential and Path*', 'originalAuthor': '李佩珈', 'originalContent': '中央经济工作会议提出，要激发有潜能的消费，扩大有效益的投资，形成消费和投资相互促进的良性循环。中国正处于消费结构转型升级的关键时期，具备成为全球最大消费市场的潜力。未来，实现我国消费投资良性循环的关键是适应消费转型升级的新趋势，加大对具有消费潜能的领域的投资，实现消费需求与供给的有机结合。一是多措并举，从稳定预期、优化环境、创新政府投资方式等多方面入手以提振其消费意愿。二是因势利导，针对农村地区消费意愿好于城市的新趋势，加大农村地区消费基础设施投资，激发其在家电等耐用消费品的潜力等。三是进一步释放居民在汽车、住房、绿色消费等领域的消费潜能。四是把握老龄化趋势，加大对“银发经济”投资。五是加大对人工智能、养老护理、文化创意等公共教育投资，实现人力资本提升和促进消费的双重目的。', 'content': 'The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that it is necessary to stimulate consumption with potential, expand profitable investment, and form a virtuous cycle in which consumption and investment promote each other. China is in a critical period of transformation and upgrading of its consumption structure and has the potential to become the world\\'s largest consumer market. In the future, the key to realizing a virtuous cycle of consumption and investment in my country is to adapt to the new trend of consumption transformation and upgrading, increase investment in areas with consumption potential, and achieve an organic combination of consumer demand and supply. The first is to take multiple measures at the same time, starting from many aspects such as stabilizing expectations, optimizing the environment, and innovating government investment methods to boost their consumption willingness. The second is to take advantage of the situation and respond to the new trend that rural areas are more willing to consume than cities, increase investment in consumption infrastructure in rural areas, and stimulate their potential in durable consumer goods such as home appliances. The third is to further release residents’ consumption potential in areas such as automobiles, housing, and green consumption. The fourth is to grasp the trend of aging and increase investment in the \"silver economy\". The fifth is to increase investment in public education such as artificial intelligence, elderly care, and cultural creativity to achieve the dual purposes of improving human capital and promoting consumption.', 'authorid': UUID('35b15cc6-ec65-5d8c-a0c6-ca937be69957'), 'sentimentScore': 0.7562569286674261, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'G76QU90HFK3VQN640Q4K32CVPJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:38 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'G76QU90HFK3VQN640Q4K32CVPJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('96c12ae9-6298-5995-9e7a-51137dd46bf4'), 'title': 'Comments on the December U.S. International Capital Flow Report: The global dollar shortage has eased, and U.S. stocks and bonds are favored by foreign investors', 'author': 'Guan Tao, Zhou Yaqi', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-23', 'encodeUrl': '4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XIMYLc6k34T4v/aHND2UUrc=', 'researcher': '管涛,周亚齐', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000330136', '11000429332'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XIMYLc6k34T4v/aHND2UUrc=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623059122_1.pdf?1708689118000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623059122_1.pdf?1708689118000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on the December U.S. International Capital Flow Report: The global dollar shortage has eased, and U.S. stocks and bonds are favored by foreign investors', 'originalAuthor': '管涛,周亚齐', 'originalContent': '2023年外资净增持量略有下降但美债继续受到追捧，并将现金类资产转为证券类资产。2023年美国录得国际资本（不含跨境直接投资）净流入8645亿美元，虽然较上年下降46.6%，但绝对规模仍排名史上第五位；其中，私人外资净流入6785亿美元，较上年减少57.4%，为连续第10年持续净流入；官方外资净流入1860亿美元，增长6.17倍，为连续第四年净流入。从TIC三大项目来看，2023年美国长期证券项目录得约1万亿美元净流入，较上年减少12.9%，绝对规模位居历史第二；短期证券项目由上年的净流入1943亿美元转为净流出1029亿美元，为2013年以来的首次年度净流出（主要是由于净减持其它可转让资产所致）；银行对外负债也由上年净流入2546亿美元转为净流出519亿美元，为2020年以来的首次年度净流出。从具体资产项目的净买卖来看，就美债投资的整体情况而言，外资持有美债余额80561亿美元，由上年减少4503亿转为增加7660亿美元，余额和增加额均创历史新高。其中，净买入美债6708亿美元，正估值效应952亿美元。私人和官方外资均净增持短期和中长期美债。就美股而言，私人和官方外资在2023年分别净买入607亿美元和291亿美元，逆转了上年分别净卖出2106亿美元和162亿美元的情形。就政府机构债而言，私人和官方外资在2023年分别净买入1199亿美元和401亿美元，分别较上年净买入规模下降15.3%和75.2%。就企业债而言，私人和官方外资在2023年分别净买入2812亿美元和230亿美元，分别较上年净买入规模增长90.9%和38.7%。2023年欧英日净增持美债，中资继续减持美债并降低对美金融资产的风险暴露。欧元区持有美国国债约1.60万亿美元，较上年末增加2051亿美元，其中净买入1798亿美元，净买入规模创历史新高，正估值效应为253亿美元。英国持有美国国债7537亿美元，较上年末增加1142亿美元，其中净买入1364亿美元，为连续第12年持续净买入，负估值效应为223亿美元。日本持有美国国债约1.14万亿美元，较上年末增加632亿美元，其中净买入266亿美元，正估值效应为366亿美元。中资持有美债余额8163亿美元，较上年底减少508亿美元，较上年少减70.7%，为连续第三年下降。其中，净卖出美债563亿美元，较上年增长3.69倍，为连续第三年净减持；正估值效应56亿美元，上年为负估值效应1612亿美元。2018～2023年，中资累计净买入中长期美国证券资产1976亿美元，相当于同期美方统计的美国对华累计（商品）贸易逆差的9.7%，较2012～2017年低了8.2个百分点。这表明过去六年来，中国投资者更少将对美贸易顺差再投资于美国。2023年美国通胀走势是贯穿全年的宏观交易主线，3月金融风波造成扰动。美股在2023年整体呈现出先走高，后回落，最后反弹的“N”型走势，外资对于美股的月度净买入也大致呈现出类似的变化。从趋势性变动来看，2023年外资对于美股的交易整体仍然显示出“追涨杀跌”的特征。美债中长端收益率在2023年整体呈现出先下后上，最后再次快速回落的节奏。2023年，套息交易空间仍显著影响私人外资对于美债的主动配置，而全球美元外储变动则显著影响官方外资对于美债的被动配置。未来数月，美国通胀数据与货币政策博弈仍可能延续，但在通胀不出现大幅反弹的情况下，其重要性或相对降低，市场或将更多注意力转移至美国经济增长以及企业盈利增速。风险提示：美联储货币政策显著偏离市场预期，美国经济发展偏离预期，地缘政治局势发展超预期。', 'content': 'In 2023, the net increase in foreign capital holdings will decrease slightly, but U.S. bonds will continue to be popular, and cash assets will be converted into securities assets. In 2023, the United States recorded a net inflow of international capital (excluding cross-border direct investment) of US$864.5 billion. Although it dropped 46.6% from the previous year, the absolute scale still ranked fifth in history; among which, the net inflow of private foreign capital was US$678.5 billion, which was lower than that of the previous year. It decreased by 57.4% last year, marking the 10th consecutive year of continuous net inflows; the official net inflow of foreign capital was US$186 billion, an increase of 6.17 times, marking the fourth consecutive year of net inflows. Judging from the three major TIC projects, U.S. long-term securities projects will record a net inflow of approximately US$1 trillion in 2023, a decrease of 12.9% from the previous year, ranking second in absolute scale in history; short-term securities projects will have a net inflow of US$194.3 billion from the previous year. The U.S. dollar turned into a net outflow of 102.9 billion U.S. dollars, the first annual net outflow since 2013 (mainly due to the net reduction of other transferable assets); the bank\\'s external liabilities also changed from a net inflow of 254.6 billion U.S. dollars in the previous year to a net outflow of 519. billion, the first annual net outflow since 2020. Judging from the net purchases and sales of specific asset items, in terms of the overall situation of U.S. debt investment, the balance of U.S. debt held by foreign investors was 8,056.1 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 450.3 billion U.S. dollars in the previous year to an increase of 766 billion U.S. dollars. Both the balance and the increase hit a record new highs. Among them, the net purchase of U.S. debt was US$670.8 billion, with a positive valuation effect of US$95.2 billion. Both private and official foreign capital increased their net holdings of short-term and medium- and long-term U.S. debt. As far as U.S. stocks are concerned, private and official foreign capital will buy a net US$60.7 billion and US$29.1 billion respectively in 2023, reversing the net sales of US$210.6 billion and US$16.2 billion respectively last year. As far as government agency bonds are concerned, private and official foreign capital will make net purchases of US$119.9 billion and US$40.1 billion respectively in 2023, a decrease of 15.3% and 75.2% respectively compared with the previous year\\'s net purchases. As far as corporate bonds are concerned, private and official foreign capital will make net purchases of US$281.2 billion and US$23 billion respectively in 2023, an increase of 90.9% and 38.7% respectively over the previous year. In 2023, Europe, the UK, and Japan will increase their holdings of U.S. debt on a net basis, while Chinese capital will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. debt and reduce its risk exposure to U.S. financial assets. The Eurozone holds approximately US$1.60 trillion in US Treasury bonds, an increase of US$205.1 billion from the end of the previous year, of which net purchases were US$179.8 billion. The scale of net purchases hit a record high, with a positive valuation effect of US$25.3 billion. The UK holds US$753.7 billion in US Treasury bonds, an increase of US$114.2 billion from the end of the previous year, of which net purchases were US$136.4 billion, marking the 12th consecutive year of continuous net purchases, with a negative valuation effect of US$22.3 billion. Japan holds approximately US$1.14 trillion in US Treasury bonds, an increase of US$63.2 billion from the end of the previous year, of which net purchases were US$26.6 billion, with a positive valuation effect of US$36.6 billion. The balance of U.S. debt held by Chinese investors was US$816.3 billion, a decrease of US$50.8 billion from the end of last year, a decrease of 70.7% from the previous year, and the third consecutive year of decline. Among them, the net sales of U.S. debt were 56.3 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 3.69 times from the previous year, marking the third consecutive year of net reduction in holdings; the positive valuation effect was 5.6 billion U.S. dollars, compared with the negative valuation effect of 161.2 billion U.S. dollars last year. From 2018 to 2023, Chinese capital purchased a total of US$197.6 billion in medium- and long-term U.S. securities, which is equivalent to 9.7% of the U.S. cumulative (commodity) trade deficit with China according to U.S. statistics during the same period, and is 8.2 percentage points lower than from 2012 to 2017. This shows that over the past six years, Chinese investors have reinvested less of their trade surplus with the United States in the United States. The trend of U.S. inflation in 2023 is the main line of macro trading throughout the year, and the financial crisis in March caused disruptions. In 2023, the U.S. stock market as a whole will show an \"N\"-shaped trend of first rising, then falling, and finally rebounding. The monthly net purchases of U.S. stocks by foreign investors have generally shown similar changes. Judging from trend changes, the overall trading of foreign capital in U.S. stocks in 2023 still shows the characteristics of \"chasing the rise and killing the fall\". The mid- and long-term yields of U.S. bonds will generally show a rhythm of first falling, then rising, and finally falling rapidly again in 2023. In 2023, the carry trading space will still significantly affect the active allocation of private foreign capital to U.S. debt, while changes in global U.S. dollar foreign reserves will significantly affect the passive allocation of official foreign capital to U.S. debt. In the coming months, the game between U.S. inflation data and monetary policy is likely to continue, but without a sharp rebound in inflation, its importance may be relatively reduced, and the market may shift more attention to U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings growth. . Risk warning: The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy deviates significantly from market expectations, the U.S. economic development deviates from expectations, and the geopolitical situation develops beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('9a08da29-31ea-546c-a7a8-7784027f369a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9404264036566019, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '4SFPRS3CG8NQ1M1TBS1CNF671RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:41 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '4SFPRS3CG8NQ1M1TBS1CNF671RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ea99a0e9-be97-55fe-b585-7721495a79d6'), 'title': \"Overseas tracking: Hong Kong's three major stock indexes all rose, and the energy sector strengthened\", 'author': 'Zhang Zhuoran', 'orgName': '川财证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000204', 'orgSName': '川财证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-23', 'encodeUrl': '4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XBdVZ2vRDnLje5Hdowjy1/M=', 'researcher': '张卓然', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000344834'], 'count': 13, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XBdVZ2vRDnLje5Hdowjy1/M=', 'site': 'Chuancai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '川财证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623045329_1.pdf?1708700819000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623045329_1.pdf?1708700819000.pdf', 'originalTitle': \"Overseas tracking: Hong Kong's three major stock indexes all rose, and the energy sector strengthened\", 'originalAuthor': '张卓然', 'originalContent': '跟踪点评周三，美国三大主要股指涨跌互现。道琼斯工业平均指数收于38612.24点，上涨0.13%；标普500指数收于4981.8点,上涨0.13%；纳斯达克综合指数收于15580.87点，下跌0.32%。行业方面，能源板块走强，康菲石油上涨3.04%，埃克森美孚上涨2.05%；科技股涨跌不一，谷歌上涨1.01%，英伟达下跌2.85%；中概股多数上涨，达达集团上涨5.74%，理想汽车上涨4.09%。美联储公布1月息会纪要显示，多数委员担忧过早降息存在风险。从纪要来看，通胀反复是美联储不敢较早开启降息的关键。此前公布的美国1月数据也显示，尽管美国通胀压力有所改善，但核心通胀依然具备较强粘性，美联储降息预期进一步降温。周四，香港三大主要股指全部上涨。恒生指数收于16742.95点，上涨1.45%；恒生中国企业指数收于5758.46点，上涨2.05%；恒生香港中资企业指数收于3500.64点，上涨3.06%。恒生科技指数收3410.02点，上涨1.75%。行业方面，恒生能源业、恒生原材料业、恒生电讯业涨幅居前，分别上涨了5.22%、2.33%、2.14%。个股方面，中升控股上涨7.49%，中国海洋石油上涨5.85%，中国神华上涨5.04%，中国联通上涨3.99%。政策要闻1.美联储：美国联邦储备委员会21日发布的1月货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储官员“一致判断政策利率可能处于本轮紧缩周期的峰值”，大多数与会官员“都注意到过早放松政策立场的风险”，并强调仔细评估即将发布的数据的重要性，以判断通货膨胀率是否正向2%的长期目标水平持续下降。同时，一些美联储官员认为，开始放慢缩减资产负债表规模的步伐可能是合适的。许多与会者建议，制定货币政策的联邦公开市场委员会应在3月的会议上深入讨论这一议题。（新华社）公司动态1.英伟达：第四财季收入221亿美元，分析师预期204.1亿美元；第四财季数据中心收入184亿美元，分析师预期172.1亿美元；第四财季汽车业务收入2.81亿美元，分析师预期2.721亿美元；第四财季游戏业务收入29亿美元，分析师预期27.2亿美元；第四财季调整后毛利润率76.7%，分析师预期75.4%；预计第一财季收入240亿美元，上下不超过2%，分析师预期为219亿美元。（财联社）风险提示：经济增长不及预期，贸易保护主义的蔓延，美联储政策超预期。', 'content': 'Tracking comments Wednesday, the three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 38612.24 points, up 0.13%; the S&P 500 closed at 4981.8 points, up 0.13%; the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 15580.87 points, down 0.32%. In terms of industry, the energy sector strengthened, with ConocoPhillips rising 3.04% and Exxon Mobil rising 2.05%; technology stocks were mixed, with Google rising 1.01% and Nvidia falling 2.85%; most Chinese concept stocks rose, with Dada Group rising 5.74 %, Li Auto rose 4.09%. Minutes of the Federal Reserve\\'s January interest rate meeting showed that most members were concerned about the risks of cutting interest rates too early. Judging from the minutes, recurring inflation is the key reason why the Fed does not dare to cut interest rates earlier. Previously released U.S. data for January also showed that although U.S. inflationary pressure has improved, core inflation is still highly sticky, and expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have further cooled. Hong Kong\\'s three major stock indexes all rose on Thursday. The Hang Seng Index closed at 16,742.95 points, up 1.45%; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed at 5,758.46 points, up 2.05%; the Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index closed at 3,500.64 points, up 3.06%. The Hang Seng Technology Index closed at 3410.02 points, up 1.75%. In terms of industries, Hang Seng Energy Industry, Hang Seng Raw Materials Industry, and Hang Seng Telecommunications Industry were the top gainers, rising by 5.22%, 2.33%, and 2.14% respectively. In terms of individual stocks, Zhongsheng Holdings rose 7.49%, China National Offshore Oil rose 5.85%, China Shenhua rose 5.04%, and China Unicom rose 3.99%. Policy News 1. Federal Reserve: The minutes of the January monetary policy meeting released by the U.S. Federal Reserve on the 21st showed that Fed officials “unanimously judged that the policy interest rate may be at the peak of this round of tightening cycle”, and most participating officials “noted premature easing. \"Risks to the Policy Stance,\" stressing the importance of carefully assessing incoming data to determine whether inflation is continuing to fall toward its long-term target of 2 percent. At the same time, some Fed officials believe it may be appropriate to begin slowing the pace of reducing the size of its balance sheet. Many participants suggested that the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy, should discuss the topic in depth at its March meeting. (Xinhua News Agency) Company News 1. Nvidia: Fourth-quarter revenue was US$22.1 billion, analysts expected US$20.41 billion; fourth-quarter data center revenue was US$18.4 billion, analysts expected US$17.21 billion; fourth-quarter automotive business Revenue was US$281 million, analysts expected US$272.1 million; fourth-quarter game business revenue was US$2.9 billion, analysts expected US$2.72 billion; fourth-quarter adjusted gross profit margin was 76.7%, analysts expected 75.4%; expected First-quarter revenue was $24 billion, plus or minus less than 2%, and analysts expected $21.9 billion. (Financial Associated Press) Risk warning: Economic growth is lower than expected, trade protectionism is spreading, and the Federal Reserve policy exceeds expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('eea00dcc-4efb-5c15-9c64-76c8aa8e4fdc'), 'sentimentScore': 0.3751693665981293, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'RDP9NFUHVBSDNJ7HDNVOOQQ14JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'RDP9NFUHVBSDNJ7HDNVOOQQ14JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('93f65067-5bb2-586e-b148-132ae44f99d9'), 'title': 'Macro Dynamic Report: January FOMC Minutes and “Slower and Longer” Balance Sheet Reduction', 'author': 'Zhang Jun , Yu Jintong', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-23', 'encodeUrl': '4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XDWUz2sByJPNWyexpIYZdhw=', 'researcher': '章俊,于金潼', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000440456'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=4QVoFX8grBhvZD4AUBp4XDWUz2sByJPNWyexpIYZdhw=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623040747_1.pdf?1708695155000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402231623040747_1.pdf?1708695155000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Dynamic Report: January FOMC Minutes and “Slower and Longer” Balance Sheet Reduction', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,于金潼', 'originalContent': '核心要点：美联储2月21日公布了1月FOMC会议纪要，3个核心内容与早先发布会上传达的信息较为一致。（1）达成就业和通胀目标的风险正在更好的平衡，尽管经济前景面临不确定性且通胀风险不容忽视，这意味着在不显著冲击就业下的“软着陆”概率正在上行；（2）鲍威尔曾1月FOMC新闻发布会上明确表示3月进行首次降息的概率很低，并非基准情形，而本次纪要中大多（most）的与会者也提示了过快放松货币政策的风险。（3）缩表方面，许多（many）与会者认为应在3月会议进行深度讨论以指导最终缩表的节奏，即下次会议可能对“更慢更久”的缩表进行更明确的指引；其次，一些（some）与会者认为在估计充足准备金水平面临的不确��性下，放缓缩表规模可以缓和达到充足准备金水平的过程，也可以让缩表持续更久；最后，个别（afew）与会者表示缩表可以在降息开始后继续进行一段时间。美联储对经济前景评估相对乐观，倾向于控制通胀不必然导致失业人数显著上行和经济下滑。工作人员展望一方面判断货币政策的滞后效应下2024年的产出增速可能高于潜在水平，另一方面认为名义和核心PCE通胀都将继续下降，并最终在2026年接近2%，此外工作人员也对通胀上行和经济下行两种风险更加警惕。对整体情况的乐观评估表明美联储有充足的空间实现“数据依赖”式的调整，市场纠正此前过于激进的6次或以上降息预期是合适的，但通胀的降低也意味着保持当前“限制性”的实际利率也需要降息，重新开启加息的概率极低，无需过度担忧。3月降息概率很低的核心因素依然是美联储需要更长时间观察通胀数据以确保“二次通胀”的趋势难以形成，但降息也不会延后太久，二季度末概率不低。名义通胀回落之下，维持5.25%-5.5%的联邦基金利率不变意味着实际利率上行，对经济和流动性的压制降进一步加大，这并不是美联储希望看到的。我们的通胀预测和多种泰勒规则测算均显示75BP-100BP的降息幅度是较为合适的，将利于实际利率保持相对稳定而非继续提高。只要通胀和其他经济数据在一季度不持续超过预期，美联储仍可以在二季度末开启降息，且可以灵活的控制降息节奏和数量型工具。缩表的路径是货币政策的另一重点，本次FOMC纪要暗示认为有必要缩减QT规模的官员不在少数，并显示个别官员支持缩表和降息的同时进行。从充足准备金角度测算，假设其在RRP于4月恢复正常水平后，按2022年3月至2023年硅谷银行事件前的水平降低，则准备金占银行总资产的比例将在2024年三季度末达到13%左右，届时可以考虑显著缩减QT的月度规模；而如果进一步考虑BTFP的逐步到期，则美联储在5月或6月的FOMC会议上宣布放缓QT规模（QTtaper），达成“更慢更久”（slowerforlonger），而且缩表可能贯穿2024全年。市场方面，美联储纪要表露出3月难以降息或缩减QT的态度并不意外，冲击相对有限。10年期美国国债上行3.9BP至4.319%，美元指数震荡下行至103.986，标普和道指小幅上涨，纳指略跌。CME数据显示联邦基金利率期货交易者维持6月首次降息、全年降息4次的预期。1月末的财政部发行计划（QRA）显示债务发行总量虽然降低，但长端债务净发行并未显著减少，这意味着即使未来数月劳动数据和通胀环比回归正常区间，长端美债的收益率在QT和通胀忧虑的压力下也不易显著回落。虽然如此，我们倾向于降息在二季度末开启、经济增长边际降速后，10年期美债阶段性下探3.8%或更低水平，但考虑到偏强的财政力度和美国经济动能，美债2024年的中枢可能维持在4%以上。', 'content': 'Core points: The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the January FOMC meeting on February 21. The three core contents are relatively consistent with the information conveyed at the earlier press conference. (1) The risks of achieving employment and inflation targets are being better balanced, although the economic outlook faces uncertainty and inflation risks cannot be ignored, which means that the probability of a \"soft landing\" without a significant impact on employment is rising; (2) ) Powell made it clear at the FOMC press conference in January that the probability of a first interest rate cut in March was very low and was not a baseline scenario. Most of the participants in the minutes also reminded of the risks of loosening monetary policy too quickly. (3) In terms of balance sheet reduction, many participants believed that in-depth discussions should be held at the March meeting to guide the final pace of balance sheet reduction, that is, the next meeting may provide clearer guidance on a “slower and longer” balance sheet reduction. ; Secondly, some participants believed that given the uncertainty faced in estimating the level of sufficient reserves, slowing down the scale of balance sheet reduction could ease the process of reaching adequate reserve levels, and could also allow the balance sheet reduction to last longer; finally, some individuals (afew) Participants said that balance sheet reduction can continue for a period of time after the interest rate cut begins. The Federal Reserve\\'s assessment of the economic outlook is relatively optimistic, and its tendency to control inflation will not necessarily lead to a significant increase in unemployment and economic decline. On the one hand, the staff outlook determines that output growth in 2024 may be higher than potential levels due to the lag effect of monetary policy. On the other hand, it believes that both nominal and core PCE inflation will continue to decline and eventually approach 2% in 2026. In addition, the staff outlook Staff are also more alert to the risks of rising inflation and economic downturn. The optimistic assessment of the overall situation shows that the Federal Reserve has ample room to implement \"data-dependent\" adjustments. It is appropriate for the market to correct its previous overly aggressive expectations of six or more interest rate cuts, but the reduction in inflation also means maintaining the current \"restrictive\" The actual interest rate also needs to be cut, and the probability of restarting interest rate increases is extremely low, so there is no need to worry too much. The core factor why the probability of an interest rate cut in March is very low is still that the Federal Reserve needs to observe inflation data for a longer period of time to ensure that the trend of \"secondary inflation\" is difficult to form. However, the interest rate cut will not be delayed for too long, and the probability is not low at the end of the second quarter. With nominal inflation falling, keeping the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% means that real interest rates will rise and further suppress the economy and liquidity. This is not what the Fed wants to see. Our inflation forecasts and various Taylor rule calculations all show that an interest rate cut of 75BP-100BP is more appropriate and will help the real interest rate remain relatively stable rather than continue to increase. As long as inflation and other economic data do not continue to exceed expectations in the first quarter, the Fed can still start to cut interest rates at the end of the second quarter, and can flexibly control the pace of interest rate cuts and quantitative tools. The path of balance sheet reduction is another focus of monetary policy. This FOMC minutes hinted that there are many officials who believe it is necessary to reduce the size of QT, and showed that individual officials support simultaneous balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts. Calculated from the perspective of sufficient reserves, assuming that after RRP returns to normal levels in April, it decreases to the level before the Silicon Valley Bank incident from March 2022 to 2023, the proportion of reserves to the bank\\'s total assets will be in the third quarter of 2024. If it reaches about 13% by the end, then the monthly scale of QT can be significantly reduced; and if the gradual expiration of BTFP is further considered, the Federal Reserve will announce a slowdown in the scale of QT (QTtaper) at the FOMC meeting in May or June to achieve \" \"Slower and longer\" (slower for longer), and the balance sheet reduction may last throughout 2024. In terms of the market, it is not surprising that the Fed minutes revealed that it will be difficult to cut interest rates or reduce QT in March, and the impact is relatively limited. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose 3.9BP to 4.319%, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated and fell to 103.986, the S&P and the Dow rose slightly, and the Nasdaq fell slightly. CME data showed traders in federal funds rate futures maintained expectations for a first rate cut in June and four rate cuts for the year. The Treasury Issuance Plan (QRA) at the end of January showed that although the total amount of debt issuance decreased, the net issuance of long-term debt did not decrease significantly, which means that even if the labor data and inflation return to the normal range in the next few months, the long-term U.S. debt The yield is not likely to fall significantly under the pressure of QT and inflation concerns. Even so, we tend to cut interest rates at the end of the second quarter and after the marginal slowdown in economic growth, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond will gradually drop to 3.8% or lower. However, taking into account the strong fiscal strength and the momentum of the U.S. economy, the U.S. The center of debt is likely to remain above 4% in 2024.', 'authorid': UUID('aade9e7c-af7e-5d53-a8f5-2d3af8826809'), 'sentimentScore': 0.4832041598856449, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'EU9BHFQG6TH4RKQ37U2EQ7SARRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'EU9BHFQG6TH4RKQ37U2EQ7SARRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('729f37a9-56d7-5cbc-a29f-aa83bd2bb0dc'), 'title': '2023 Balance of Payments Analysis Report: The balance of payments continues to maintain its independent balance, and the pressure on short-term capital outflows has significantly eased.', 'author': 'Guan Tao,Liu Lipin', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQNR0hTW4cHL6M/ONbU3Buoo=', 'researcher': '管涛,刘立品', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000330136', '11000330534'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQNR0hTW4cHL6M/ONbU3Buoo=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622901340_1.pdf?1708637998000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622901340_1.pdf?1708637998000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '2023 Balance of Payments Analysis Report: The balance of payments continues to maintain its independent balance, and the pressure on short-term capital outflows has significantly eased.', 'originalAuthor': '管涛,刘立品', 'originalContent': '2023年经常项目顺差收窄，主要是因为服务贸易逆差扩大，货物贸易顺差缩小。其中，服务贸易逆差相当于疫情前五年均值的91%，且恢复进度逐季递增；货物贸易顺差同比减少，但仍是历史次高。2023年资本项目逆差收窄，短期资本流出压力明显缓解。其中，直接投资出现2017年以来首次年度逆差，且三季度外来直接投资首现净流出后四季度恢复净流入；短期资本逆差大幅减少，四季度外资配置人民币资产热情重新高涨。2023年外汇储备余额增加1103亿美元，主因是四季度美联储紧缩预期缓解、全球股债“双升”带来的正估值效应；黄金储备余额增加310亿美元，其中包括央行以外汇和人民币形式增持黄金，以及金价变动带来的影响外汇储备资产和黄金储备资产齐增，国际储备多元化趋势延续。风险提示：海外金融风险超预期，主要央行货币政策调整超预期，国内经济复苏不如预期', 'content': 'The current account surplus will narrow in 2023, mainly due to the expansion of the service trade deficit and the narrowing of the goods trade surplus. Among them, the services trade deficit is equivalent to 91% of the average of the five years before the epidemic, and the recovery progress is increasing quarter by quarter; the goods trade surplus has decreased year-on-year, but is still the second highest in history. The capital account deficit will narrow in 2023, and the pressure on short-term capital outflows will significantly ease. Among them, direct investment experienced an annual deficit for the first time since 2017, and foreign direct investment resumed net inflows in the fourth quarter after its first net outflow in the third quarter; the short-term capital deficit decreased significantly, and foreign investors\\' enthusiasm for allocating RMB assets increased again in the fourth quarter. The balance of foreign exchange reserves will increase by US$110.3 billion in 2023, mainly due to the positive valuation effect brought about by the easing of the Fed\\'s tightening expectations in the fourth quarter and the \"double rise\" of global stocks and bonds; the balance of gold reserves will increase by US$31 billion, including the central bank\\'s increase in foreign exchange and RMB The increase in gold holdings, as well as the impact of changes in gold prices, have increased both foreign exchange reserve assets and gold reserve assets, and the trend of diversification of international reserves has continued. Risk warning: Overseas financial risks exceed expectations, major central banks’ monetary policy adjustments exceed expectations, and domestic economic recovery is not as good as expected.', 'authorid': UUID('4f9d35aa-b655-5cbb-ba88-ca136ca54237'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8943614102900028, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'I2BLS4K408LIPLVMAB225S6U07VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'I2BLS4K408LIPLVMAB225S6U07VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('05d96772-0d09-5ee4-a87c-ae11ce06f744'), 'title': 'Interpretation of January inflation data: The average CPI in the second quarter is likely to be higher than that in the first quarter, and the probability of a sharp rise in PPI in 2024 is low', 'author': 'Zheng Houcheng, Rong Lang', 'orgName': '英大证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000085', 'orgSName': '英大证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQEHzTmnQDGFMA3OOKRJPAL8=', 'researcher': '郑后成,荣浪', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000395042', '11000459132'], 'count': 1, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQEHzTmnQDGFMA3OOKRJPAL8=', 'site': 'Yingda Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '英大证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622876673_1.pdf?1708631220000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622876673_1.pdf?1708631220000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of January inflation data: The average CPI in the second quarter is likely to be higher than that in the first quarter, and the probability of a sharp rise in PPI in 2024 is low', 'originalAuthor': '郑后成,荣浪', 'originalContent': '报告概要：1月CPI当月同比-0.80%，预期-0.60%，前值-0.30%；1月PPI当月同比-2.50%，预期-2.50%，前值-2.70%；1月PPIRM当月同比-3.40%，前值-3.80%。我们解读如下：一、“春节错位”效应是CPI大幅下行主因，2季度CPI均值大概率高于1季度；二、耐用消费品类PPI创新低，短期内工业企业产成品存货同比不具备大幅上行基础；三、PPI翘尾因素月度值均位于非正值区间，预示2024年PPI大幅上行概率较低；四、不排除有色金属材料类PPIRM下探可能，家用器具CPI上行趋势可能面临压力。', 'content': 'Summary of the report: January CPI was -0.80% year-on-year, expected -0.60%, and the previous value was -0.30%; January PPI was -2.50% year-on-year, expected -2.50%, and the previous value was -2.70%; January PPIRM was -3.40 year-on-year %, the previous value was -3.80%. Our interpretation is as follows: 1. The \"Spring Festival dislocation\" effect is the main reason for the sharp decline in CPI. The average CPI in the second quarter is likely to be higher than that in the first quarter; 2. The PPI of durable consumer goods has reached a new low. In the short term, the inventory of finished goods of industrial enterprises does not have the basis for a substantial upward trend compared with the same period last year. ; 3. The monthly values \\u200b\\u200bof PPI tail factors are all in the non-positive range, indicating that the probability of a sharp rise in PPI in 2024 is low; 4. The possibility of PPIRM decline for non-ferrous metal materials cannot be ruled out, and the upward trend of household appliances CPI may face pressure.', 'authorid': UUID('94be73fa-a88e-58f2-b977-9ca9ecc865df'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7733119390904903, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'LM2NC3PT31OJ1827F1ICOGCEFJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:53 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'LM2NC3PT31OJ1827F1ICOGCEFJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f79dbd82-7fa6-5ba2-b38b-921e74b676f9'), 'title': 'Three questions after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Fan Chengkai', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQJTXt9oYj/JUKpVI5/hJ+EE=', 'researcher': '钟正生,范城恺', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000369143'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQJTXt9oYj/JUKpVI5/hJ+EE=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622876632_1.pdf?1708631020000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622876632_1.pdf?1708631020000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Three questions after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,范城恺', 'originalContent': '事项：美国时间2024年2月21日，美联储公布1月议息会议纪要。市场降息预期继续降温，10年美债收益率上升5BP至4.32%，刷新年内新高；美股纳斯达克指数小幅收跌；美元指数震荡下跌，收于104下方。平安观点：会议纪要基本维持2月以来的政策基调，谨慎对待降息，仍较关注通胀风险。具体来看：1）利率方面，参会者判断政策利率可能已经达峰；参会者强调限制性货币政策利率需要维持多久具有不确定性；在对通胀持续回落到2%更有信心之前，不合适降息。2）经济方面，参会者认为实现充分就业和降低通胀两大目标的风险趋于平衡，但仍高度关注通胀风险；参会者指出，价格稳定的进展可能会停滞，过快放松政策立场有风险；也有几名参会者指出，长期维持限制性立场或带来经济下行风险。3）缩表方面，参会者指出，缩表是美联储实现目标的重要组成，适合在下一次会议上深入讨论相关问题；放慢缩表可能有助于平稳过渡到充裕的准备金水平，或者可以将缩表持续得更久；即使开始降息后，缩表也可能会持续一段时间。4）其他风险方面，参会者提到金融环境限制性不足可能导致通胀进展停滞、资产估值相比基本面偏高、地缘政治等经济金融风险。一问：没有太多增量的纪要，为何打击降息预期？2月21日会议纪要公布后，市场降息预期仍受打击，CME数据显示，3月降息概率仍然维持在6.5%，而5月和6月降息预期分别下降7.5和8.2个百分点，全年降息超过3次的概率由60.1%下降至50.1%。当日，2年和10年美债收益率均上升5BP，分别至4.64%和4.32%，均持平或刷新年内新高。回顾三周前（1月31日）美联储会议声明公布后，市场的“鹰派”感受并不强烈，当日，CME显示的全年降息预期甚至小幅升温，10年美债收益率日内大跌12BP至3.92%。在降息方面，鲍威尔此前在记者会中已经明确表示3月降息非基准情形；其在2月4日的采访中进一步表示，通胀未必像前六个月那般快速回落，过早降息的风险在于通胀难以回归2%。我们认为，在传递谨慎降息的信号上，美联储之前已经做得比较充分了，本次会议纪要并没有明显的增量信息。那么，为何市场降息预期仍在降温？我们理解，在最新通胀数据超预期后，当前市场维持“紧缩交易”惯性，投资者容易放大鹰派信号。二问：降息预期还会调整多久？目前，CME利率期货市场的主流预期是全年降息3-4次，已经基本接近我们的基准预期。不过，市场对利率走向的分歧也在加大。譬如，美国前财长萨默斯以及部分华尔街机构，开始评估美联储年内不降息、甚至再加息的风险。我们认为这一风险无需过忧。我们在报告《“类紧缩交易”何时休？》中指出，目前市场担忧的需求过热风险和供应链扰动，可能都不足以令通胀明显反弹，而且稳定的通胀预期也有利于通胀切实回归2%。我们观察到，近期市场主要博弈的是年中乃至全年的降息决策，但仅仅根据个别单次通胀数据以及议息会议，很难保证“远眺”的准确率。往近看一些，美联储3月会议前后是比较关键的观察窗口，如果新一期的就业和通胀数据有所降温，加上美联储最新经济预测将进一步明确降息路径，市场风格有可能再度回到“宽松交易”。三问：除降息预期波动，近期还有哪些因素或影响资产价格？美股方面，标普500指数年内（截至2月21日）已累涨4.4%，但2月中旬开始涨势减弱、波动加大。由于美国经济增长势头更足，但降息预期也在修正，投资者更需在乐观的盈利前景与上升的估值压力中寻求平衡。盈利方面，据FactSet数据，截至2月16日，市场预计2024年标普500公司盈利增长11%，且盈利增速呈现逐季上升。估值方面，截至2月21日，标普500指数市盈率为25.5倍，历史分位水平处于近十年的82%、1928年以来的93%。此外，随着视频生成模型Sora问世，英伟达业绩“不负众望”地大超预期等，目前“人工智能”主题投资热情仍高，这也意味着投资者在判断相关股票的“合理估值”时很可能陷入主观。然而，美股集中度过高引发市场波动的风险，在未来一段时间值得警惕。我们认为，在估值压力与“科技泡沫”风险下，美股短期或出现波动调整；待美联储确认开启降息后，或具备更好的上涨环境。美债方面，近期美债利率较快反弹，2月以来（截至21日），10年美债利率已累涨33BP，其中实际利率贡献25BP，隐含通胀预期贡献8BP。除了降息预期的修正外，美债供需前景，以及“股债跷跷板”效应，可能也在推升美债利率。美债供需方面，1月31日公布的财政部再融资方案提高了季度长债发行规模，可能持续引发美债供给过剩担忧。2月21日，美国财政部进行的20年期美债拍卖结果“惨淡”，得标利率为4.595%，大幅高于预发行利率3.3个基点，创2020年以来最大尾部利差。此外，近期市场也在展望特朗普当选新总统的可能，这或意味着2017年减税法案延期，但或也意味着美国财政继续走在不可持续的道路上。股债影响方面，近期美股波动加大，VIX指数（七日均值）已经处于年内最高水平，股市避险情绪的波动或引发“股债跷跷板”效应。譬如，2月20日美股在英伟达业绩公布前下跌，VIX指数走高至15.42，美债利率出现回落；一日后，积极的业绩表现令股市风险偏好上升，美债利率也随之走高。但无论如何，我们认为政策利率走向仍是今年美债的核心定价因素，美债利率有望在降息预期稳定后逐步回落。美元方面，2月以来（截至21日），美元指数上升0.45%，但非美货币表现分化，欧元兑美元几乎不变，英镑兑美元跌0.39%，而日元兑美元大跌2.23%，美元兑日元重回150大关。欧洲方面，欧元区经济疲弱似乎已在市场预期内，而英国GDP和通胀数据均弱于预期，引发英镑走贬。日本方面，日本2023年四季度GDP意外萎缩、陷入技术性衰退，令市场开始重新评估日银转向的节奏。此前，市场预期日银可能在4月就尝试退出负利率，但目前这一预期可能正在推迟。目前，日元汇率又处于150的阻力位，或意味着市场对未来一段时间日银的“鹰派”信号可能更加敏感。同时我们也提示，当前美联储降息路径模糊，可能也是日银不愿“轻举妄动”的考量，但在美联储开启降息后，日银转向与日元升值风险或加大。风险提示：美国经济和通胀超预期，美联储紧缩推迟，国际金融风险上升，地缘政治局势不确定等。', 'content': '事项：美国时间2024年2月21日，美联储公布1月议息会议纪要。市场降息预期继续降温，10年美债收益率上升5BP至4.32%，刷新年内新高；美股纳斯达克指数小幅收跌；美元指数震荡下跌，收于104下方。平安观点：会议纪要基本维持2月以来的政策基调，谨慎对待降息，仍较关注通胀风险。具体来看：1）利率方面，参会者判断政策利率可能已经达峰；参会者强调限制性货币政策利率需要维持多久具有不确定性；在对通胀持续回落到2%更有信心之前，不合适降息。2）经济方面，参会者认为实现充分就业和降低通胀两大目标的风险趋于平衡，但仍高度关注通胀风险；参会者指出，价格稳定的进展可能会停滞，过快放松政策立场有风险；也有几名参会者指出，长期维持限制性立场或带来经济下行风险。3）缩表方面，参会者指出，缩表是美联储实现目标的重要组成，适合在下一次会议上深入讨论相关问题；放慢缩表可能有助于平稳过渡到充裕的准备金水平，或者可以将缩表持续得更久；即使开始降息后，缩表也可能会持续一段时间。4）其他风险方面，参会者提到金融环境限制性不足可能导致通胀进展停滞、资产估值相比基本面偏高、地缘政治等经济金融风险。一问：没有太多增量的纪要，为何打击降息预期？2月21日会议纪要公布后，市场降息预期仍受打击，CME数据显示，3月降息概率仍然维持在6.5%，而5月和6月降息预期分别下降7.5和8.2个百分点，全年降息超过3次的概率由60.1%下降至50.1%。当日，2年和10年美债收益率均上升5BP，分别至4.64%和4.32%，均持平或刷新年内新高。回顾三周前（1月31日）美联储会议声明公布后，市场的“鹰派”感受并不强烈，当日，CME显示的全年降息预期甚至小幅升温，10年美债收益率日内大跌12BP至3.92%。在降息方面，鲍威尔此前在记者会中已经明确表示3月降息非基准情形；其在2月4日的采访中进一步表示，通胀未必像前六个月那般快速回落，过早降息的风险在于通胀难以回归2%。我们认为，在传递谨慎降息的信号上，美联储之前已经做得比较充分了，本次会议纪要并没有明显的增量信息。那么，为何市场降息预期仍在降温？我们理解，在最新通胀数据超预期后，当前市场维持“紧缩交易”惯性，投资者容易放大鹰派信号。二问：降息预期还会调整多久？目前，CME利率期货市场的主流预期是全年降息3-4次，已经基本接近我们的基准预期。不过，市场对利率走向的分歧也在加大。譬如，美国前财长萨默斯以及部分华尔街机构，开始评估美联储年内不降息、甚至再加息的风险。我们认为这一风险无需过忧。我们在报告《“类紧缩交易”何时休？》中指出，目前市场担忧的需求过热风险和供应链扰动，可能都不足以令通胀明显反弹，而且稳定的通胀预期也有利于通胀切实回归2%。我们观察到，近期市场主要博弈的是年中乃至全年的降息决策，但仅仅根据个别单次通胀数据以及议息会议，很难保证“远眺”的准确率。往近看一些，美联储3月会议前后是比较关键的观察窗口，如果新一期的就业和通胀数据有所降温，加上美联储最新经济预测将进一步明确降息路径，市场风格有可能再度回到“宽松交易”。三问：除降息预期波动，近期还有哪些因素或影响资产价格？美股方面，标普500指数年内（截至2月21日）已累涨4.4%，但2月中旬开始涨势减弱、波动加大。由于美国经济增长势头更足，但降息预期也在修正，投资者更需在乐观的盈利前景与上升的估值压力中寻求平衡。盈利方面，据FactSet数据，截至2月16日，市场预计2024年标普500公司盈利增长11%，且盈利增速呈现逐季上升。估值方面，截至2月21日，标普500指数市盈率为25.5倍，历史分位水平处于近十年的82%、1928年以来的93%。此外，随着视频生成模型Sora问世，英伟达业绩“不负众望”地大超预期等，目前“人工智能”主题投资热情仍高，这也意味着投资者在判断相关股票的“合理估值”时很可能陷入主观。然而，美股集中度过高引发市场波动的风险，在未来一段时间值得警惕。我们认为，在估值压力与“科技泡沫”风险下，美股短期或出现���动调整；待美联储确认开启降息后，或具备更好的上涨环境。美债方面，近期美债利率较快反弹，2月以来（截至21日），10年美债利率已累涨33BP，其中实际利率贡献25BP，隐含通胀预期贡献8BP。除了降息预期的修正外，美债供需前景，以及“股债跷跷板”效应，可能也在推升美债利率。美债供需方面，1月31日公布的财政部再融资方案提高了季度长债发行规模，可能持续引发美债供给过剩担忧。2月21日，美国财政部进行的20年期美债拍卖结果“惨淡”，得标利率为4.595%，大幅高于预发行利率3.3个基点，创2020年以来最大尾部利差。此外，近期市场也在展望特朗普当选新总统的可能，这或意味着2017年减税法案延期，但或也意味着美国财政继续走在不可持续的道路上。股债影响方面，近期美股波动加大，VIX指数（七日均值）已经处于年内最高水平，股市避险情绪的波动或引发“股债跷跷板”效应。譬如，2月20日美股在英伟达业绩公布前下跌，VIX指数走高至15.42，美债利率出现回落；一日后，积极的业绩表现令股市风险偏好上升，美债利率也随之走高。但无论如何，我们认为政策利率走向仍是今年美债的核心定价因素，美债利率有望在降息预期稳定后逐步回落。美元方面，2月以来（截至21日），美元指数上升0.45%，但非美货币表现分化，欧元兑美元几乎不变，英镑兑美元跌0.39%，而日元兑美元大跌2.23%，美元兑日元重回150大关。欧洲方面，欧元区经济疲弱似乎已在市场预期内，而英国GDP和通胀数据均弱于预期，引发英镑走贬。日本方面，日本2023年四季度GDP意外萎缩、陷入技术性衰退，令市场开始重新评估日银转向的节奏。此前，市场预期日银可能在4月就尝试退出负利率，但目前这一预期可能正在推迟。目前，日元汇率又处于150的阻力位，或意味着市场对未来一段时间日银的“鹰派”信号可能更加敏感。同时我们也提示，当前美联储降息路径模糊，可能也是日银不愿“轻举妄动”的考量，但在美联储开启降息后，日银转向与日元升值风险或加大。风险提示：美国经济和通胀超预期，美联储紧缩推迟，国际金融风险上升，地缘政治局势不确定等。', 'authorid': UUID('1faba558-17d3-5821-ae0e-e52593c216b5'), 'sentimentScore': 0.06940944492816925, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'A2P5KJTPLP4OEHLFOM85PGSUARVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:12:58 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'A2P5KJTPLP4OEHLFOM85PGSUARVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a67d8138-5f57-519b-9f1a-9fc48756d74f'), 'title': 'Macro Research Monthly Report: Social finance and credit data have made a good start, but the sustainability remains to be seen.', 'author': 'Xu Ying', 'orgName': '麦高证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80049237', 'orgSName': '麦高证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQC/O0ChJfWj9mFqohp+YO8k=', 'researcher': '徐滢', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000449878'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQC/O0ChJfWj9mFqohp+YO8k=', 'site': 'Mago Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '麦高证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622876549_1.pdf?1708631302000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622876549_1.pdf?1708631302000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Research Monthly Report: Social finance and credit data have made a good start, but the sustainability remains to be seen.', 'originalAuthor': '徐滢', 'originalContent': '摘要受去年同期基数较高以及今年同去年春节错期影响，1月份M2同比涨幅8.7%，较上月（9.7%）下降1%，M1同比增加5.9%，较上月（1.3%）大幅增长4.6%。M2与M1剪刀差为2.8%，环比收窄，资金活化程度有所提高。1月份信贷数据表现较好，居民新增贷款超预期增长，企业贷款数据维持较高水平，结构比较积极。居民新增贷款中的短期贷款和中长期贷款均较去年同期增长较多，短期贷款的增长主要受多家银行降低消费贷利率刺激，中长期贷款增长或与房地产销售回暖相关，总体表现较好。企业新增贷款中，短期贷款、中长期贷以及票据融资均减少，其中企业票据融资同比减少5606亿元，成为主要拖累因素，但也体现了企业票据融资冲量规模减少总体看，在去年同期基数较高的基础上，企业数据表现不弱。1月份新增社融6.5万亿元，同比多增5061亿元，社融增量数据超出���期，实现了开门红，人民币贷款仍是社融增长的主要支撑。分析社融增量的主要增长来自企业债券融资和未贴现银行承兑汇票的贡献，拖累因素为政府债券，政府债自2023年下半年以来一直是社融增量的主要支撑力量，但1月份同比减少1193亿元，也是2024年以来政府债整体发行节奏偏慢的原因。总体来看，社融增量和信贷数据超预期增长，实现了开门红，这也符合年内投放规律，银行和企业普遍靠前发力，后期增长持续性有待观察风险提示：基本面修复不及预期；房地产修复不及预期。', 'content': 'Summary Affected by the high base in the same period last year and the offset of the Spring Festival this year from last year, M2 in January increased by 8.7% year-on-year, down 1% from the previous month (9.7%), and M1 increased by 5.9% year-on-year, a significant increase from the previous month (1.3%) 4.6%. The scissor difference between M2 and M1 was 2.8%, narrowing month-on-month, and the degree of fund activation has improved. Credit data performed well in January, with new resident loans growing faster than expected, corporate loan data maintaining a high level, and a relatively positive structure. Among new loans to residents, both short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans increased more than the same period last year. The growth of short-term loans was mainly stimulated by the reduction of consumer loan interest rates by many banks. The growth of medium- and long-term loans may be related to the recovery of real estate sales, and the overall performance was good. . Among the new corporate loans, short-term loans, medium and long-term loans and bill financing all decreased. Among them, corporate bill financing decreased by 560.6 billion yuan year-on-year, becoming the main drag factor, but it also reflected the decrease in the scale of corporate bill financing. Overall, the base number in the same period last year On a higher basis, corporate data performance is not weak. In January, 6.5 trillion yuan of new social financing was added, an increase of 506.1 billion yuan year-on-year. The incremental data of social financing exceeded expectations and achieved a good start. RMB loans are still the main support for the growth of social financing. Analyzing the main growth in social financing increments comes from the contribution of corporate bond financing and undiscounted bank acceptance bills. The drag factor is government bonds. Government bonds have been the main support for social financing increments since the second half of 2023, but year-on-year in January The decrease of 119.3 billion yuan is also the reason why the overall pace of government bond issuance has been slow since 2024. Overall, the increase in social financing and credit data have exceeded expectations and achieved a good start. This is also in line with the investment pattern during the year. Banks and enterprises generally make efforts at the front, and the sustainability of growth in the later period remains to be seen. Risk warning: The fundamental repair is not as good as expected; Real estate repairs fell short of expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('a7f043a0-c180-553f-9a30-81d8998aa3b6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6916274279356003, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'PSUSO2EP3G6JHNH6K8SOJLJ0G7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:13:01 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'PSUSO2EP3G6JHNH6K8SOJLJ0G7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e94d619e-c69b-5a6c-8749-12f3b21b5db8'), 'title': 'Comments on urban real estate financing coordination mechanism', 'author': 'Su Bowen, Lu Rui', 'orgName': '联合资信评估股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80002172', 'orgSName': '联合资信', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQDIVFuR0Zro1GLhM87zECls=', 'researcher': '苏柏文,卢瑞', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000400240', '11000421834'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQDIVFuR0Zro1GLhM87zECls=', 'site': 'United Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '联合资信', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622830599_1.pdf?1708622132000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622830599_1.pdf?1708622132000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on urban real estate financing coordination mechanism', 'originalAuthor': '苏柏文,卢瑞', 'originalContent': '《关于建立城市房地产融资协调机制的通知》是中央加大金融支持房地产的又一具体落实。该文件的指向性非常明确，以项目层面进行融资协调更加符合当前的市场情况，一方面，优质房地产项目能够通过融资协调机制快速获得资金，尽快形成实物投资，有助于房地产投资企稳；另一方面，暂时遇到困难的项目得到融资支持，有助于减少项目交付风险，改善行业预期，促进房地产需求释放，有利于房地产市场企稳。但预计一些自身存在瑕疵的项目仍很难有实质性融资支持。2024年1月12日，住房城乡建设部、国家金融监督管理总局联合发布《关于建立城市房地产融资协调机制的通知》（以下简称“《协调通知》”或“该文件”），旨在指导各地级及以上城市建立房地产融资协调机制（以下简称“协调机制”），同时协调机制将根据房地产项目的开发建设情况及项目开发企业资质、信用、财务等情况，按照公平公正原则，提出可以给予融资支持的房地产项目名单。1月26日，住建部召开城市房地产融资协调机制部署会，35个重点城市相关负责人参会，旨在加快落实相关举措。截至1月底，26个省份170个城市已建立城市房地产融资协调机制，提出了第一批房地产项目“白名单”。从目前已知的第一批房地产项目名单中，主要以民营房企和混合所有制房企开发的项目为主，且多家出险房企的若干项目成功入围。同时，据公开渠道报道，住建部要求首批房地产融资项目进入白名单需要满足5个条件，分别为：（1）项目处于在建施工状态，如果项目短期停工，但资金到位就能复工建设和交付的，也可以纳入；（2）有与融资额基本匹配的抵押物；（3）确定一家贷款主办银行，并建立贷款资金封闭监管制度；（4）预售资金未被抽挪或抽挪的预售资金已追回；（5）制订贷款使用计划和项目完工计划。截至2月5日，已有绿地、融创、旭辉集团、远洋集团、金科股份、碧桂园、世茂集团、雅居乐、中国奥园、中骏等房企项目公布入围首批地产项目“白名单”，项目合计已超228个。', 'content': 'The \"Notice on Establishing an Urban Real Estate Financing Coordination Mechanism\" is another concrete implementation of the central government\\'s increased financial support for real estate. The direction of this document is very clear. Financing coordination at the project level is more in line with the current market conditions. On the one hand, high-quality real estate projects can quickly obtain funds through the financing coordination mechanism and form physical investment as soon as possible, which will help stabilize real estate investment; on the other hand, On the other hand, projects that have temporarily encountered difficulties will receive financing support, which will help reduce project delivery risks, improve industry expectations, promote the release of real estate demand, and help stabilize the real estate market. However, it is expected that some projects with inherent flaws will still find it difficult to obtain substantial financing support. On January 12, 2024, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau jointly issued the \"Notice on Establishing an Urban Real Estate Financing Coordination Mechanism\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Coordination Notice\" or \"the document\"), aiming to guide various localities. Cities at level 1 and above have established a real estate financing coordination mechanism (hereinafter referred to as the \"coordination mechanism\"). At the same time, the coordination mechanism will propose financing that can be provided based on the development and construction status of the real estate project and the qualifications, credit, and finance of the project development enterprise in accordance with the principle of fairness and justice. List of supported real estate projects. On January 26, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a deployment meeting for the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism. Relevant leaders from 35 key cities attended the meeting to speed up the implementation of relevant measures. As of the end of January, 170 cities in 26 provinces had established urban real estate financing coordination mechanisms and proposed the first batch of real estate project \"white lists.\" From the list of the first batch of known real estate projects, projects developed by private real estate companies and mixed-ownership real estate companies are the main ones, and several projects from many insurance real estate companies have been successfully shortlisted. At the same time, according to public reports, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development requires that the first batch of real estate financing projects enter the white list and meet five conditions, namely: (1) The project is under construction. If the project is suspended for a short period of time, construction can be resumed if the funds are in place; Delivered, can also be included; (2) There is collateral that basically matches the financing amount; (3) A loan sponsoring bank is determined and a closed supervision system for loan funds is established; (4) Pre-sale funds have not been diverted or diverted The pre-sale funds have been recovered; (5) Formulate a loan use plan and project completion plan. As of February 5, real estate projects such as Greenland, Sunac, CIFI Group, Sino-Ocean Group, Jinke Group, Country Garden, Shimao Group, Agile, China Aoyuan, Zhongjun and other real estate companies have announced that they have been shortlisted for the first batch of real estate projects in the \"white list\" ”, the total number of projects has exceeded 228.', 'authorid': UUID('2957d311-f28f-5863-8248-fa1502c92f65'), 'sentimentScore': 0.16280372440814972, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'G6545SMFVH9JF8480VT0OSL5I3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:13:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'G6545SMFVH9JF8480VT0OSL5I3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('dff67919-0eb1-504e-a2c9-b147327fa87d'), 'title': 'Fed: Is a rate hike looming?', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQJbAvCiqznUGfQc6GBtnPSo=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQJbAvCiqznUGfQc6GBtnPSo=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622828127_1.pdf?1708620605000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622828127_1.pdf?1708620605000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Fed: Is a rate hike looming?', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '美联储开始公开唱衰“降息论”了，该不该担心再加息的“意外”？ 周四凌晨公布的 1 月联储议息会议纪要多少要让市场“捏把汗” ——“大多数与会者关注到货币政策转向太快的风险（ Most participants noted therisks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy）”，这一唱衰“降息论”的行为背后至少透露了两层信号： 降息不会太快开启，而停止加息可能也并非“板上钉钉”。 略显默契的是， 2 月以来市场的表现也开始逐渐不再反映软着陆和美联储即将转向的叙事——美债收益率大幅上涨，而股市却表现坚挺。那么， 如何评估美联储再加息的隐忧？我们认为可能至少要满足三个方面的条件（就业、通胀和增长），而这三个条件目前看来门槛不低。 今年降息的时点和空间确实存在不确定性，但是重启加息的概率目前看来并不大。美联储重回加息的可能性有多大？ 我们认为可以从 2023 年美联储的超预期加息中获得一些洞见。 2022 年 12 月美联储议息会议点阵图暗示2023 年整体将加息 3 次，而市场由于衰退担忧，政策预期则更加“激进” ——6 月停止加息、 7 月开始降息。最终的结果是 2023 年美联储加息 4 次，最后一次加息在 7 月，并且全年没有降息。回顾 2023 年上半年美国经济和市场环境，顶着市场的衰退预期和美国硅谷银行的破产，美联储超预期加息的“底气”在哪？我们认为可能来自于三个方面重要的经济条件：其一，每月新增非农持续稳定保持在 20 万人乃至 30 万人以上，甚至部分月份超过 50 万人，就业市场需求高、韧性强；其二，核心通胀环比增速未出现明显退坡趋势，持续位于 0.3%之上，核心通胀随时面临加速风险；其三，美国实际 GDP 季度环比折年率位于 2.5%附近， 2022 年三四季度甚至一度达到 2.6%和 2.7%，经济表现尤为强劲。因此从以上三个方面来看，今年再次加息的兑现门槛不低。 虽然 1 月的就业和通胀数据都超预期了，但是背后多少都有些季节性、天气和统计变化的噪音，我们对未来一至两个季度内，美国经济能够在就业、增长和通胀方面持续保持“强劲”持有疑虑：短期数据扰动，就业市场仍在逐步降温。 对于就业市场来说， 1 月超预期新增非农数据的持续性存疑，一方面，年初非农数据通常会受到天气以及数据口径调整等影响，存在较大噪音；另一方面， 多项劳动力市场指标仍指向需求持续降温，职位空缺数呈现不断下行趋势、招聘率也已经低于疫情前水平； 此外，供给缺口逐渐愈合，劳动力参与率稳步修复，劳动力市场供需正在走向平衡。 自 2021 年以来，每年新增非农就业的中枢逐渐下降， 2023 年跌至 25.5 万人，而疫情前的 2016 年至 2019 年这一中��都在 20 万以下。经济虽仍有韧性，但高利率和财政脉冲放缓的滞后影响将会拖累后续经济的表现。 虽然去年四季度美国经济再次交出亮眼答卷， 显示经济的韧性。但从历史来看，在季节性和气候等影响下，一季度美国经济通常会有所下行，并且随着美国居民超额储蓄的下滑，消费对于经济的支撑作用将明显减弱，最新 GDPnow 显示一季度消费对于实际 GDP 贡献已经从最初预测的 2.4%下调至 1.8%，消费退坡仍在进行。 而可能更重要的是去年 3、 4 季度对经济形成有效支撑的积极财政，今年将成为重要拖累， 利率 higher for longer 的滞后影响在今年也会有所体现。但三个因素中，通胀的不确定可能是最大的。 截至 2023 年 12 月美国核心 PCE 同比下降至 3%以下，根据我们的路径演绎，如果要在 3 月或 5月议息会议前使得核心 PCE 同比反弹至 3%以上， 触发美联储加息考虑， 那么其月均环比增速要分别稳定保持在 0.5%或 0.4%，难免有些不切实际。 而且即便通胀有可能在年中超预期反弹，由于其他两个条件并不成熟，影响的可能更多是降息的推迟，而不是加息的重启。风险提示： 全球通胀超预期上行，美国经济提前进入显著衰退，巴以冲突局势失控，美国银行危机再起金融风险暴露，美联储超预期降息', 'content': 'The Federal Reserve has begun to publicly pessimize the \"interest rate cut theory\". Should it be worried about the \"surprise\" of raising interest rates? The minutes of the January Federal Reserve interest rate meeting released early Thursday morning made the market sweat to some extent - \"Most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy), this behavior of denigrating the \"interest rate cut theory\" reveals at least two signals: the interest rate cut will not start too soon, and stopping the interest rate increase may not be a \"certainty\". Somewhat tacitly, the market\\'s performance since February has gradually begun to no longer reflect the narrative of a soft landing and the Fed\\'s imminent pivot - U.S. bond yields have risen sharply, while the stock market has performed strongly. So, how to evaluate the hidden worries of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates? We believe that at least three conditions (employment, inflation and growth) may have to be met, and the threshold for these three conditions currently seems to be high. There is indeed uncertainty about the timing and space of interest rate cuts this year, but the probability of restarting interest rate hikes currently seems low. How likely is it that the Fed will return to raising interest rates? We think some insights can be gleaned from the Fed\\'s larger-than-expected interest rate hike in 2023. The dot plot of the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate meeting in December 2022 implies that interest rates will be raised three times in 2023. However, due to concerns about recession, the market\\'s policy expectations are more \"radical\" - it will stop raising interest rates in June and start cutting interest rates in July. The end result is that the Fed will raise interest rates four times in 2023, with the last increase in July, and no rate cuts throughout the year. Looking back at the U.S. economic and market environment in the first half of 2023, in the face of market recession expectations and the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States, what is the \"confidence\" for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates beyond expectations? We believe it may come from three important economic conditions: First, the monthly increase in non-agricultural employment has continued to remain stable at more than 200,000 or even 300,000 people, and even exceeded 500,000 in some months. The job market has high demand and strong resilience. ; Secondly, the core inflation growth rate has not shown a significant downward trend and continues to be above 0.3%, and core inflation faces the risk of accelerating at any time; thirdly, the quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of real GDP in the United States is around 2.5%, and in the third and fourth quarters of 2022 It even reached 2.6% and 2.7% at one time, and the economic performance was particularly strong. Therefore, from the above three aspects, the threshold for realizing another interest rate hike this year is not low. Although January\\'s employment and inflation data exceeded expectations, there is some noise behind it due to seasonal, weather and statistical changes. We are confident that the U.S. economy will continue to maintain strong performance in terms of employment, growth and inflation in the next one to two quarters. \"Strong\" holds doubts: short-term data are disturbed, and the job market is still gradually cooling. For the job market, the sustainability of the unexpected new non-agricultural data in January is questionable. On the one hand, non-agricultural data at the beginning of the year is usually affected by weather and data caliber adjustments, and there is a lot of noise; on the other hand, many labor force data Market indicators still point to continued cooling of demand, with the number of job vacancies showing a continuous downward trend and the recruitment rate already lower than the pre-epidemic level. In addition, the supply gap is gradually closing, the labor force participation rate is steadily recovering, and the labor market supply and demand are moving toward balance. Since 2021, the center of new non-farm employment every year has gradually declined, falling to 255,000 in 2023, while the center was below 200,000 from 2016 to 2019 before the epidemic. Although the economy is still resilient, the lagging impact of high interest rates and a slowdown in the fiscal pulse will drag down subsequent economic performance. Although the U.S. economy once again delivered outstanding results in the fourth quarter of last year, it showed the resilience of the economy. However, historically speaking, due to the influence of seasonality and climate, the U.S. economy usually declines in the first quarter, and as the excess savings of U.S. residents decline, the supporting role of consumption in the economy will be significantly weakened. The latest GDPnow shows that in the first quarter The contribution of consumption to real GDP has been reduced from the original forecast of 2.4% to 1.8%, and the decline in consumption is still ongoing. What may be more important is that the active fiscal policy that effectively supported the economy in the third and fourth quarters of last year will become an important drag this year, and the lagging impact of higher interest rates will also be reflected this year. But among the three factors, uncertainty about inflation may be the greatest. As of December 2023, the U.S. core PCE has dropped below 3% year-on-year. According to our path interpretation, if the core PCE is to rebound to more than 3% year-on-year before the interest rate meeting in March or May, triggering the Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates, then Its monthly average month-on-month growth rate needs to be stable at 0.5% or 0.4% respectively, which is inevitably somewhat unrealistic. And even if inflation is likely to rebound faster than expected in the middle of the year, since the other two conditions are not yet mature, the impact may be more on the delay of interest rate cuts than on the restart of interest rate increases. Risk warning: Global inflation rose more than expected, the U.S. economy entered a significant recession ahead of schedule, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict got out of control, the U.S. banking crisis resurfaced, financial risks were exposed, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': -0.27175938338041306, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GIPD352Q4SNMLF73650C86M08BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:13:07 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GIPD352Q4SNMLF73650C86M08BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('48c12b95-adaa-5b3d-aa3a-16ae45e80bbf'), 'title': 'High-tech manufacturing macro weekly report: Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index turned up', 'author': 'Shao Xingyu, Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQLKkXxoA7YRSFi24xN7nG+0=', 'researcher': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257974', '11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQLKkXxoA7YRSFi24xN7nG+0=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622827687_1.pdf?1708620427000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622827687_1.pdf?1708620427000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'High-tech manufacturing macro weekly report: Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index turned up', 'originalAuthor': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数转涨。截至2024年2月17日当周，国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数A录得0.2，较春节前上涨；国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数B为59.2，较春节前上涨；扩散指数C为-18.01，较春节前上涨。从分项看，本周动态随机存储器价格较春节前上涨，半导体行业景气度上行；6-氨基青霉烷酸、中关村电子产品价格指数、丙烯腈和六氟磷酸锂价格保持不变，医药、计算机、半导体、新能源行业景气度与春节前持平。高技术产业跟踪方面：高技术制造业高频数据跟踪上，6-氨���青霉烷酸价格330元/千克，与春节前持平；丙烯腈价格为9250元/吨，与春节前持平；动态随机存储器（DRAM）价格1.0810美元，较春节前上涨0.003美元；晶圆（Wafer）价格最新一期报3.44美元/片，与春节前持平；六氟磷酸锂价格6.65万元/吨，与春节前持平；中关村电子产品价格指数:液晶显示器最新一期报91.04，与春节前持平。总结来看，半导体行业景气度上行，航空航天、医药、新能源、计算机行业景气度保持不变。高技术制造业政策动向上，美国当地时间2024年2月15日，OpenAI正式发布文生视频模型Sora，并发布了48个文生视频案例和技术报告，正式入局视频生成领域。高技术制造业前沿动态上，据科技日报消息，近日，由中国船舶集团有限公司旗下上海船舶研究设计院（以下简称“上船院”）自主研发设计的1400TEU无舱盖集装箱船，获得来自比利时船东的订单。该型船是全球首艘氨燃料动力集装箱船，其成功签约标志着全球航运业在清洁能源领域又取得了重要突破，对引领航运业可持续绿色发展具有里程碑意义。风险提示：高技术制造业发展和结构调整带来指标失灵；经济政策和产业政策干预；经济增速下滑。', 'content': 'Core view: Guosen\\'s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index turned higher. As of the week of February 17, 2024, Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index A recorded 0.2, which was higher than before the Spring Festival; Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index B was 59.2, which was higher than before the Spring Festival; the diffusion index C was -18.01, Increased compared with before the Spring Festival. In terms of items, the price of dynamic random access memory increased this week compared with before the Spring Festival, and the prosperity of the semiconductor industry increased; the prices of 6-aminopenicillanic acid, Zhongguancun Electronic Products Price Index, acrylonitrile and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged, and the prices of medicine, computers, and semiconductors remained unchanged. The prosperity of the new energy industry is the same as before the Spring Festival. High-tech industry tracking: According to the high-frequency data tracking of high-tech manufacturing, the price of 6-aminopenicillanic acid is 330 yuan/kg, the same as before the Spring Festival; the price of acrylonitrile is 9,250 yuan/ton, the same as before the Spring Festival; dynamic random The price of memory (DRAM) is US$1.0810, up US$0.003 from before the Spring Festival; the price of wafers (Wafer) was reported at US$3.44 per piece in the latest period, the same as before the Spring Festival; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 66,500 yuan per ton, the same as before the Spring Festival; Zhongguancun Electronics Product price index: The latest issue of LCD monitors was 91.04, the same as before the Spring Festival. In summary, the prosperity of the semiconductor industry has increased, while the prosperity of the aerospace, pharmaceutical, new energy, and computer industries has remained unchanged. In terms of high-tech manufacturing policy trends, on February 15, 2024 local time in the United States, OpenAI officially released the Vincent video model Sora, and released 48 Vincent video cases and technical reports, officially entering the field of video generation. On the frontier of high-tech manufacturing, according to Science and Technology Daily, recently, the 1,400TEU hatchless container ship independently developed and designed by the Shanghai Ship Research and Design Institute (hereinafter referred to as the \"Shanghai Shipyard\"), a subsidiary of China State Shipbuilding Corporation, received a contract from Belgium. Shipowner’s order. This type of ship is the world\\'s first ammonia fuel-powered container ship. Its successful signing marks another important breakthrough for the global shipping industry in the field of clean energy and is a milestone in leading the sustainable green development of the shipping industry. Risk warning: The development and structural adjustment of high-tech manufacturing industry will lead to indicator failure; economic policy and industrial policy intervention; economic growth will decline.', 'authorid': UUID('326df97e-9b51-50f7-9a96-c9f92117a326'), 'sentimentScore': 0.7930443957448006, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'NQ3PPODBURK6O5CKHJ2MKJ1557VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:13:10 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'NQ3PPODBURK6O5CKHJ2MKJ1557VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8b7c6f3f-5d81-5cc0-a222-4328d1653233'), 'title': \"Special Macroeconomic Research: The Enlightenment the U.S. Internet Industry Brings to the Development of China's High-tech Industries - Things should always be taken into account\", 'author': 'Shao Xingyu, Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQB9/1TyakrMykdtwG0Z2U4U=', 'researcher': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257974', '11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQB9/1TyakrMykdtwG0Z2U4U=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622827690_1.pdf?1708620427000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622827690_1.pdf?1708620427000.pdf', 'originalTitle': \"Special Macroeconomic Research: The Enlightenment the U.S. Internet Industry Brings to the Development of China's High-tech Industries - Things should always be taken into account\", 'originalAuthor': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点新旧动能转换仍在进行中。（1）高技术产业驱动下的动能转换是理解目前中国经济的一个重要线索。毋庸置疑，中国高技术产业一直都在不断发展，对于经济的影响力也在不断提升。以高技术制造业投资占全部制造业投资的比重来看，高技术制造业投资占比从2017年14%左右不断扩大到目前的23%，对制造业增长的贡献率则达到四成左右。可以说，2021年以来制造业投资高增长的情况，很大程度上是由高技术产业转型所推动的。（2）但是新旧动能转换也带来了一些“成长的烦恼”。从经济数据来看，在高技术产业对制造业投资拉动越发明显的同时，高技术制造业在全部工业营收当中的占比却出现了下滑。从中央政策表述来看，部分新兴产业产能过剩的问题也引起了政策关注。2023年年末中央经济工作会议提出“部分行业产能过剩”，此后中央财经办进一步明确表述为“部分新兴行业存在重复布局和内卷式竞争，一些行业产能过剩”。产业生命周期视角看新兴产业产能过剩。（1）产业生命周期从成长到成熟的过程中往往要经历震荡期，在这一阶段，产业需求增速有所放缓，但习惯于快速增长的企业同以往一样继续扩大产能，此时，产业内竞争加剧，开始出现所谓的“价格屠夫”，企业数量迅速减少，企业集中度上升。但是，震荡阶段之后，产业市场充分成熟，增量需求让位于存量需求，同时，产业进入壁垒开始提高，龙头企业实现规模效应，反而使得产业潜力再次得到释放。（2）我国目前新兴产业的发展过程也较为符合理论所指出的产业发展过程。仅以新能源车为缩影，我国新能源车渗透率发展过程高度符合逻辑增长曲线理论模拟水平。从阶段划分来看，2021年以前，新能源车渗透率在10%以下水平徘徊，整体处于产业萌芽期阶段，2021年初-2022年末，新能源车渗透率迅速从10%上升至超过30%，这也是新能源车的快速成长阶段，而目前看，新能源车已经逐步进入到震荡期阶段，在这个阶段，产业可能出现一些调整和出清过程。从美国互联网产业发展看动能转换前景。（1）从历史经验来看，我们不妨以美国2000年前后互联网产业情况作为对新兴产业产能出清的一个参照。从美国互联网相关产业的情况来看，在1993-2000年之间，在蓬勃的互联网需求刺激下，计算机和电子等固定资产投资也出现了显著高增长的情况，增速在1996年达到顶峰16.8%。但是，在2000年之后的过程中，这部分产能利用率明显下降至60%左右。（2）美国向互联网产业的转型过程并未因此而被打断。从美国计算机和电子产品占制造业增加值的比重来看，在互联网所带来的狂热逐步消退以后，美国计算机产业重新回到稳步发展的轨道当中，计算机和电子产业占制造业增加值的比重从低点11.7%回升到2010年的13.3%。风险提示：政策调整滞后，经济增速下滑。', 'content': 'The core point is that the conversion of old and new driving forces is still in progress. (1) The transformation of kinetic energy driven by high-tech industries is an important clue to understanding the current Chinese economy. There is no doubt that China\\'s high-tech industry has been continuously developing, and its influence on the economy is also constantly increasing. Judging from the proportion of high-tech manufacturing investment in all manufacturing investments, the proportion of high-tech manufacturing investment has continued to expand from about 14% in 2017 to the current 23%, and its contribution to the growth of the manufacturing industry has reached about 40%. It can be said that the high growth of manufacturing investment since 2021 is largely driven by the transformation of high-tech industries. (2) But the conversion of old and new driving forces also brings some \"growing pains.\" From the perspective of economic data, while high-tech industries are increasingly driving investment in manufacturing, the share of high-tech manufacturing in total industrial revenue has declined. Judging from the central policy statements, the problem of overcapacity in some emerging industries has also attracted policy attention. At the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2023, it was proposed that \"some industries have overcapacity\". Since then, the Central Financial and Economic Office has further clearly stated that \"some emerging industries have duplication of layout and involution competition, and some industries have overcapacity.\" Overcapacity in emerging industries from an industrial life cycle perspective. (1) The industrial life cycle often goes through a shock period from growth to maturity. During this stage, the growth rate of industrial demand slows down, but companies accustomed to rapid growth continue to expand production capacity as before. At this time, Competition within the industry has intensified, so-called \"price butchers\" have begun to appear, the number of companies has decreased rapidly, and the concentration of companies has increased. However, after the shock stage, the industrial market is fully mature, and incremental demand gives way to existing demand. At the same time, industry entry barriers begin to increase, and leading companies achieve economies of scale, which in turn allows the industrial potential to be released again. (2) The current development process of emerging industries in my country is also relatively consistent with the industrial development process pointed out by theory. Taking new energy vehicles as a microcosm, the development process of my country\\'s new energy vehicle penetration rate is highly consistent with the theoretical simulation level of logical growth curve. From the perspective of stage division, before 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles hovered below 10%, and the overall industry was in the embryonic stage. From the beginning of 2021 to the end of 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles rapidly increased from 10% to more than 30%. This is also the rapid growth stage of new energy vehicles. At present, new energy vehicles have gradually entered a shock period. At this stage, the industry may undergo some adjustments and clearing processes. Looking at the prospects for momentum conversion from the perspective of the development of the US Internet industry. (1) From the perspective of historical experience, we might as well use the situation of the Internet industry in the United States around 2000 as a reference for clearing the production capacity of emerging industries. Judging from the situation of Internet-related industries in the United States, between 1993 and 2000, stimulated by the booming Internet demand, investment in fixed assets such as computers and electronics also experienced significant high growth, with the growth rate peaking at 16.8 in 1996. %. However, in the process after 2000, the utilization rate of this part of capacity dropped significantly to about 60%. (2) The transformation process of the United States into the Internet industry has not been interrupted. Judging from the proportion of U.S. computers and electronic products in the added value of the manufacturing industry, after the craze caused by the Internet gradually subsided, the U.S. computer industry has returned to the track of steady development. It rose from a low of 11.7% to 13.3% in 2010. Risk warning: Policy adjustments lag behind and economic growth slows down.', 'authorid': UUID('326df97e-9b51-50f7-9a96-c9f92117a326'), 'sentimentScore': 0.5033832909539342, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'AQJO1H90ECKU39OAIVPQ4932JVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:13:12 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'AQJO1H90ECKU39OAIVPQ4932JVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0e0f4590-40f6-5d82-9911-d2bd4a7b96a0'), 'title': 'Liquidity Tracking Weekly Report', 'author': 'Xu Ying, Lin Yonglu', 'orgName': '麦高证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80049237', 'orgSName': '麦高证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQPys8m+YDKhTv2t1+dvB4Fw=', 'researcher': '徐滢,林永绿', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000449878', '11000449879'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQPys8m+YDKhTv2t1+dvB4Fw=', 'site': 'Mago Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '麦高证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622824245_1.pdf?1708619451000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622824245_1.pdf?1708619451000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Liquidity Tracking Weekly Report', 'originalAuthor': '徐滢,林永绿', 'originalContent': '摘要上周公开市场净回笼4170亿元，本周有11820亿元逆回购到期上周（2024年2月5日—2024年2月9日）央行公开市场净回笼4170亿元，其中7天逆回购投放1340亿元，到期17330亿元，净回笼15990亿元，维持1.8%的利率水平，14天逆回购投放11820亿元。本周（2024年2月19日—2024年2月23日）有11820亿元的逆回购到期。R007与DR007利差回落，交易所回购利率下行R001均值为2.20%，较前一周下行19.43BP，DR001均值为1.72%，较前一周上行3BP。DR007加权均价的均值为1.91%，较前一周上行1.96BPR007加权均价的均值为2.36%，较前一周下行8.97BP。二者收盘价利差（R007-DR007）收于0BP，较前一周下行4BP。交易所回购利率下行，GC007均值为2.38%，较前一周下行7.26BP。同业存单发行总额增加，平均票面利率下行上周同业存单到期量有所增加，为5667.90亿元（前一周为2970.80亿元），发行数量减少至412只，实际发行总额为4267.40亿元（前一周为3615.50亿元）。平均票面利率下行6BP至2.34%。风险提示：政策超预期、金融监管超预期等。', 'content': \"Summary Last week, the open market had a net withdrawal of 417 billion yuan, and 1,182 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired this week. Last week (February 5, 2024 - February 9, 2024), the central bank's open market had a net withdrawal of 417 billion yuan, of which 7 RMB 134 billion was invested in the reverse repurchase, 1,733 billion yuan matured, and a net withdrawal of 1,599 billion yuan was maintained. The interest rate was maintained at 1.8%. The 14-day reverse repurchase invested 1,182 billion yuan. This week (February 19, 2024 - February 23, 2024), 1.182 billion yuan of reverse repurchases expired. The spread between R007 and DR007 fell, and the exchange repurchase rate fell. The average value of R001 was 2.20%, a decrease of 19.43 BP from the previous week. The average value of DR001 was 1.72%, an increase of 3 BP from the previous week. The average weighted average price of DR007 is 1.91%, an increase of 1.96BP from the previous week. The average weighted average price of PR007 is 2.36%, a decrease of 8.97BP from the previous week. The closing price difference between the two (R007-DR007) closed at 0BP, down 4BP from the previous week. The exchange repurchase rate fell, with the average value of GC007 being 2.38%, a decrease of 7.26BP from the previous week. The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit increased, and the average coupon rate fell. The maturity amount of interbank certificates of deposit increased last week, reaching 566.790 billion yuan (previous week: 297.080 billion yuan). The number of issuances decreased to 412, and the actual total issuance was 426.740 billion yuan (previous week: 297.080 billion yuan). 361.55 billion yuan a week). The average coupon rate dropped by 6BP to 2.34%. Risk warning: Policies exceed expectations, financial supervision exceeds expectations, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('117b2061-d9f1-5a06-93ac-5937039d112f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.036015525460243225, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '0P49I8N99UR4UA298RN7OVHS8NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:13:15 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '0P49I8N99UR4UA298RN7OVHS8NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9937d60a-0635-5a79-be0f-c4818605df58'), 'title': 'Peacock Flying Southeast: Everything About Enterprises Going Global (Part 2)', 'author': 'Yang Weiji', 'orgName': '国元证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001043', 'orgSName': '国元证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQIPdSBcGbPZpKJG8QqIj8W0=', 'researcher': '杨为敩', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000176619'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQIPdSBcGbPZpKJG8QqIj8W0=', 'site': 'Guoyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国元证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622821804_1.pdf?1708616846000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622821804_1.pdf?1708616846000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Peacock Flying Southeast: Everything About Enterprises Going Global (Part 2)', 'originalAuthor': '杨为敩', 'originalContent': '核心观点：我国出口和对外直接投资都存在结构性问题：（1） 出口表现为总量增长有韧性，结构特征里虽然仍以中低附加值的纺织、电气零件，贱金属为主，但汽车，运输设备等先进制造占比增长明显，正在改善我国的出口结构。贸易伙伴方面仍以美欧为主， 但随着发达国家积极投资东南��以及一些低附加值的劳动密集型产业转移至东南亚，我国对东南亚出口比例明显上升。（2） 对外直接投资现状不大乐观，主要存在两方面问题： 第一是存量远落后发达国家，第二是结构需要调整。在对外投资的地区结构中， 香港是我国对外直投的重中之重，而对发达国家地区，东盟新兴市场，乃至“一带一路”国家占比均极低。在产业结构中，我国没有像德国，日本等国在制造业方面进行投资，而是大笔投入租赁服务和零售批发。此外，我国对海外矿产资源投资亦不足， 在争夺核心资源战略方面缺乏雄心与魄力。从我国经济现状看， 人口供给的拐点， 过剩的产能使得产业有“走出去”的动力。 但根据赤松要的雁形理论，后起国意欲成为领头雁，形成“进口—“国内生产（国产替代）” —出口”的发展形态，至少在“走出去”时对他国要形成产业梯度差。而“走出去”是和全球各国最优秀的产业进行竞争， 因此我们横向比较中美上市产业的核心竞争力：（1） 我国绝大多数行业毛利率落后美国： 差距特别大的行业有， 航空Ⅲ (-64.26%,毛利率差距)，互联网软件与服务Ⅲ（-36.08%），电气设备(-13.94%)，生物科技Ⅲ (-14.69%)，媒体Ⅲ (-15.31%)，电脑与外围设备(-17.22%) ，家庭耐用消费品(-17.85%)，半导体产品与半导体设备(-20.74%)，制药(-21.57%)，通信设备Ⅲ (-22.54%) 。（2） 毛利率领先美国的行业有： 电力Ⅲ ，饮料，多元化零售，电子设备、仪器和元件，汽车及汽车零配件。其中电力和饮料在毛利率方面遥遥领先，分别超出 30.19 %和 27.98%。（3）我国绝大多数行业在节省销售、财务、管理费用开支方面领先美国：由于费用方面的管理较为出色，我国平均净利率较美国差距只有-2.43%，较毛利率差距提升了 9.83%。（4） 我国绝大多数行业人力成本占销售收入比重极低，部分不及 1%。推断有竞争力的行业或许为电力，饮料，零售，电子设备元件与汽车及零部件行业。从产业转移看， 东盟或许是我国产业“出海”的优选：（1） 可在“中国-东盟”的框架下，充分发挥免税优势；（2） 在比较 PCI 的基础上， 泰国或许是承接我国部分制造业的不错选择。（3） 但整体看东南亚的普遍的工业生产能力及配套设施建设不足， 低人工成本无法弥补劳动力素质较差的劣势，无法大规模承接制造业。在产业竞争力基础上， 我们判断“出海” 可能对新能源汽车产业带来显著影响， 对零售消费的提振可能一般：（1）“出海” 可能为新能源汽车带来较为显著的影响： 根据各国/组织规划的新能源保有量目标推算，截止 2030 年各市场 CAGR 预估为： 欧盟 22.88%，东南亚泰国 26.29%； 美国 27.76%； 大洋洲澳大利亚 44.78%。在假定中国占当地市场份额静态的情况下， 我国新能源汽车出口的 CAGR 保守估计至少为 23.23%，（2）“出海” 能为我国零售行业带来利润增长，但影响十分有限： 从增量看， 保守估计， 东南亚地区 2022 年至 2030 年预计将有 616.464 亿美元的家庭消费增长空间， 8 年复合平均增速仅为 3.49%，与美欧消费为主导的经济增速 1-2%增速差距不大，而东南亚消费体量远远小于美欧，影响十分有限。 因此零售业将更聚焦于存量竞争。“出海”的本质内涵是掌控产业核心竞争力。风险提示：中美产业比较不合理， 贸易投资保护主义加剧，我国地缘政治环境恶化，海外新能源计划不及预期，东南亚经济增速不及预期，线性递推模型偏差较大', 'content': 'Core point of view: There are structural problems in both my country\\'s exports and foreign direct investment: (1) Exports show resilient growth in total volume. Although the structural characteristics are still dominated by textiles, electrical parts, and base metals with medium and low added value, automobiles , the proportion of advanced manufacturing such as transportation equipment has increased significantly, which is improving my country\\'s export structure. The United States and Europe are still the main trading partners. However, as developed countries actively invest in Southeast Asia and some low-value-added labor-intensive industries are transferred to Southeast Asia, the proportion of my country\\'s exports to Southeast Asia has increased significantly. (2) The current situation of foreign direct investment is not optimistic. There are two main problems: first, the stock is far behind developed countries, and second, the structure needs to be adjusted. In the regional structure of foreign investment, Hong Kong is the top priority for my country’s foreign direct investment, while its proportion in developed countries, ASEAN emerging markets, and even the “Belt and Road” countries is extremely low. In the industrial structure, our country does not invest in manufacturing like Germany, Japan and other countries, but invests heavily in leasing services and retail and wholesale. In addition, my country has insufficient investment in overseas mineral resources and lacks ambition and courage in its strategy to compete for core resources. Judging from the current economic situation in my country, the turning point of population supply and excess production capacity have given industries the motivation to \"go global.\" However, according to Akamatsu Kaname\\'s wild goose theory, late-comer countries intend to become the leading goose and form a development pattern of \"import-\"domestic production (domestic substitution)\"-export. At least when \"going out\", they must form an industrial gradient gap with other countries. . \"Going global\" means competing with the best industries from all over the world, so we horizontally compare the core competitiveness of listed industries in China and the United States: (1) The gross profit margin of most industries in my country lags behind that of the United States: industries with particularly large gaps include aviation III (-64.26%, gross profit margin gap), Internet software and services III (-36.08%), electrical equipment (-13.94%), biotechnology III (-14.69%), media III (-15.31%), computers and peripherals Equipment (-17.22%), household consumer durables (-17.85%), semiconductor products and semiconductor equipment (-20.74%), pharmaceuticals (-21.57%), communication equipment III (-22.54%). (2) Industries with leading gross profit margins in the United States include: Electricity III, beverages, diversified retail, electronic equipment, instruments and components, automobiles and automobile parts. Among them, electricity and beverages are far ahead in terms of gross profit margin, exceeding 30.19% and 27.98% respectively. (3) Most industries in my country are ahead of the United States in saving sales, finance, and management expenses: due to better expense management, the average net profit margin gap in my country is only -2.43% compared with the United States, which is 9.83% higher than the gross profit margin gap. (4) The proportion of labor costs in sales revenue in most industries in my country is extremely low, with some less than 1%. It is inferred that the competitive industries may be the electricity, beverage, retail, electronic equipment components and automobile and parts industries. From the perspective of industrial transfer, ASEAN may be the first choice for my country\\'s industries to \"go overseas\": (1) It can give full play to its tax-free advantages under the \"China-ASEAN\" framework; (2) On the basis of comparing PCI, Thailand may be the best choice to undertake my country\\'s industrial transfer. A good choice for some manufacturing industries. (3) However, overall, Southeast Asia generally lacks industrial production capacity and supporting facilities. Low labor costs cannot make up for the disadvantage of poor labor quality, and it is unable to undertake large-scale manufacturing. On the basis of industrial competitiveness, we judge that \"going overseas\" may have a significant impact on the new energy vehicle industry, and the boost to retail consumption may be average: (1) \"going overseas\" may have a relatively significant impact on new energy vehicles: Based on the new energy storage targets planned by various countries/organizations, the CAGR of each market by 2030 is estimated to be: the European Union 22.88%, Southeast Asia and Thailand 26.29%; the United States 27.76%; Oceania and Australia 44.78%. Assuming that China\\'s local market share is static, the CAGR of my country\\'s new energy vehicle exports is conservatively estimated to be at least 23.23%. (2) \"Going overseas\" can bring profit growth to my country\\'s retail industry, but the impact is very limited: From incremental Look, conservative estimates show that Southeast Asia is expected to have room for US$61.6464 billion in household consumption growth from 2022 to 2030, with an 8-year compound average growth rate of only 3.49%, which is 1-2% higher than the US and European consumption-led economic growth. The speed gap is not big, and the consumption volume in Southeast Asia is far smaller than that in the United States and Europe, so the impact is very limited. Therefore, the retail industry will focus more on stock competition. The essential connotation of \"going overseas\" is to control the core competitiveness of the industry. Risk warning: The industrial comparison between China and the United States is unreasonable, trade and investment protectionism has intensified, my country\\'s geopolitical environment has deteriorated, overseas new energy plans are less than expected, Southeast Asia\\'s economic growth is less than expected, and the linear recursion model has large deviations', 'authorid': UUID('6d968db3-be1e-5c47-a812-8f8784abf8e8'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9216405339539051, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'SGHP8K20GBF75OKS59N04A1GA7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:13:18 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'SGHP8K20GBF75OKS59N04A1GA7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7e913842-218e-5c16-bf7d-0a6a4645f473'), 'title': 'Analysis mainly based on the perspective of financial cooperation between China and other BRICS countries: progress and prospects of financial cooperation among BRICS countries', 'author': 'Li Luxia,Zhang Runfeng', 'orgName': '中国工商银行(亚洲)有限公司', 'orgCode': '80065775', 'orgSName': '工银亚洲', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQEsY9xP3l1R/zJZ/p3gvn8k=', 'researcher': '李卢霞,张润锋', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000443532', '11000449132'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQEsY9xP3l1R/zJZ/p3gvn8k=', 'site': 'Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (Asia) Limited', 'originalSite': '工银亚洲', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622821791_1.pdf?1708616365000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622821791_1.pdf?1708616365000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Analysis mainly based on the perspective of financial cooperation between China and other BRICS countries: progress and prospects of financial cooperation among BRICS countries', 'originalAuthor': '李卢霞,张润锋', 'originalContent': '阅读摘要当前，金砖国家间的金融合作正伴随更加紧密的经贸合作快速发展。货币合作方面，目前中国与6国签署双边本币互换协议，与4国建立本币结算合作关系。互联互通方面，证券基金、衍生品合作日渐深入，金融科技、互挂上市等合作领域也正探索性推进。金融机构跨境经营方面，当前中资政策性、商业性机构围绕当地能源、基建项目，通过银团、投行等业务提供融资支持，中资银行的当地分支机构参与CIPS，也是金融基础设施互联互通的重要推动力量，目前，直参行已经达到9家。展望未来，金砖国家间更加紧密的贸易合作预将带动更密切的货币合作，支持人民币国际化持续发展。金融市场互联互通有望持续拓阔金砖国家融资渠道，提升金砖国家金融市场整体投融资功能。中资金融机构有望为金砖国家当地经济多元化转型和创新发展提供全方位金融服务支持，特别是，在港中资银行可依托香港绿色金融中心的市场、政策、资金优势，以及业务、产品灵活创新优势，联动其他金砖国家当地中资金融机构，提供绿色债券发行、资产证券化等创新服务支持，提升相关项目资金动员效率、降低综合融资成本。', 'content': 'Read summary Currently, financial cooperation among BRICS countries is developing rapidly along with closer economic and trade cooperation. In terms of currency cooperation, China currently has signed bilateral local currency swap agreements with six countries and established local currency settlement cooperation relationships with four countries. In terms of interconnection, cooperation in securities funds and derivatives is increasingly deepening, and cooperation in areas such as financial technology and mutual listings is also being exploratoryly advanced. In terms of cross-border operations of financial institutions, currently Chinese policy and commercial institutions provide financing support through syndicates, investment banks and other businesses around local energy and infrastructure projects. Local branches of Chinese banks participate in CIPS, which is also a key to the interconnection of financial infrastructure. An important driving force, currently, there are 9 direct participating banks. Looking to the future, closer trade cooperation among BRICS countries is expected to lead to closer currency cooperation and support the continued development of RMB internationalization. Financial market interconnection is expected to continue to expand financing channels for BRICS countries and enhance the overall investment and financing functions of the BRICS financial markets. Chinese financial institutions are expected to provide comprehensive financial service support for the diversified transformation and innovative development of local economies in BRICS countries. In particular, Chinese banks in Hong Kong can rely on the market, policy, capital advantages, as well as business and products of the Hong Kong Green Finance Center Flexibly innovate and link up with local Chinese financial institutions in other BRICS countries to provide innovative service support such as green bond issuance and asset securitization to improve the efficiency of fund mobilization for related projects and reduce comprehensive financing costs.', 'authorid': UUID('e7de00e7-03a1-5172-b835-b45e7b550305'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8507649786770344, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'K51QM9DUFBTACQFFTHQVAOB5RRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:13:21 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'K51QM9DUFBTACQFFTHQVAOB5RRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1b544022-1f29-58ee-92c0-dcb5fd586302'), 'title': 'Monetary policies and financial market performance of BRICS countries since the epidemic', 'author': 'Li Luxia, Huang Sijia, Yang Yan', 'orgName': '中国工商银行(亚洲)有限公司', 'orgCode': '80065775', 'orgSName': '工银亚洲', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQLSQb7Fg9q/AGKqgTGIeTSA=', 'researcher': '李卢霞,黄斯佳,杨妍', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000443532', '11000444737', '11000444738'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQLSQb7Fg9q/AGKqgTGIeTSA=', 'site': 'Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (Asia) Limited', 'originalSite': '工银亚洲', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622821790_1.pdf?1708616266000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622821790_1.pdf?1708616266000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Monetary policies and financial market performance of BRICS countries since the epidemic', 'originalAuthor': '李卢霞,黄斯佳,杨妍', 'originalContent': '阅读摘要除美联储政策外，金砖国家货币政策选择受贸易收支及国际资金流动的影响亦较大。疫情初期金砖国家先后跟随美联储大幅降息，伴随经济逐步走出疫情阴霾，各国货币政策分化态势较为明显。美联储政策路径、大宗商品价格走势等是影响金砖国家金融市场表现的重要因素。步入2024年，美联储或最早于二季度开启降息，叠加全球经济增长承压，金砖国家货币宽松的政策空间拓阔、必要性增加。其中：人行已于年初超预期降准，后续降息空间仍存；巴西央行配合政府“再工业化”计划，降息动力较足；印度、南非、沙特、阿联酋等国面对大宗商品需求压力，大概率跟随美联储于下半年降息；俄罗斯、埃及、伊朗等国经济增长受地缘局势影响较大，“滞涨”状况或延续一段时间，各国央行为支持经济亦可能实施货币宽松政策。货币政策普遍趋松背景下，新兴市场汇率料普遍回暖，但亦视乎各国经济景气程度及央行货币宽松幅度有所分化；债券利率存在下行空间，但经济景气程度整体低迷，收益率曲线或呈牛平走势；内外利差收窄，新兴市场对国际资金的吸引力提升，料可提振股市表现，但各国经济景气程度仍是最重要决定因素。', 'content': 'Reading summary In addition to the Federal Reserve policy, the monetary policy choices of the BRICS countries are also greatly affected by trade balance and international capital flows. In the early days of the epidemic, the BRICS countries followed the Federal Reserve in slashing interest rates. As the economy gradually emerged from the haze of the epidemic, the monetary policies of various countries became more differentiated. The policy path of the Federal Reserve and commodity price trends are important factors affecting the performance of the financial markets of the BRICS countries. Entering 2024, the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates as early as the second quarter. Adding pressure on global economic growth, the policy space for monetary easing in the BRICS countries will expand and the necessity will increase. Among them: the People\\'s Bank of China has lowered the required reserve ratio at the beginning of the year more than expected, and there is still room for subsequent interest rate cuts; the Brazilian Central Bank cooperates with the government\\'s \"re-industrialization\" plan and has sufficient motivation to cut interest rates; India, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries are facing pressure from commodity demand, and there is a high probability that Following the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate cut in the second half of the year, the economic growth of Russia, Egypt, Iran and other countries is greatly affected by the geopolitical situation, and the \"stagflation\" situation may continue for a period of time. Central banks of various countries may also implement monetary easing policies to support the economy. Against the background of generally loosening monetary policies, exchange rates in emerging markets are expected to generally recover, but this also depends on the degree of economic prosperity of each country and the degree of monetary easing by central banks. There is room for downward decline in bond interest rates, but the overall degree of economic prosperity is sluggish, and the yield curve may be Bullish trend; internal and external interest rate spreads have narrowed, and emerging markets have become more attractive to international funds, which is expected to boost stock market performance, but the economic prosperity of each country is still the most important determinant.', 'authorid': UUID('7b57b77e-d15c-59c1-b290-784046b9e41b'), 'sentimentScore': -0.062216341495513916, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '0DP6DOKKQQ7G67OFVFOM3QMLENVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:13:24 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '0DP6DOKKQQ7G67OFVFOM3QMLENVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('72be844f-417e-5a05-b683-f3f136350563'), 'title': 'Overview, developments and prospects of India, the “Land of Peacocks”', 'author': 'Li Luxia, Sun Yibo, Cao Fengwen, Wang Jingfei', 'orgName': '中国工商银行(亚洲)有限公司', 'orgCode': '80065775', 'orgSName': '工银亚洲', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQF3SrWbRnIaJWb7k1yChnbI=', 'researcher': '李卢霞,孙轶博,曹凤文,王靖斐', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000443532', '11000449846', '11000444135', '11000444134'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQF3SrWbRnIaJWb7k1yChnbI=', 'site': 'Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (Asia) Limited', 'originalSite': '工银亚洲', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622821439_1.pdf?1708616183000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622821439_1.pdf?1708616183000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overview, developments and prospects of India, the “Land of Peacocks”', 'originalAuthor': '李卢霞,孙轶博,曹凤文,王靖斐', 'originalContent': '阅读摘要印度位于南亚次大陆，面积为298万平方公里，位居世界第七。印度西北部同巴基斯坦接壤，东北部与中国、尼泊尔、不丹交界，东部与缅甸毗邻，东南部则与斯里兰卡隔海相望。印度已成为世界第一人口大国，族群构成复杂，同时也是全球经济增速最快的国家之一，现在已经成为世界第五大经济体。印度服务业发展超前、制造业相对落后，2014年推出“印度制造”计划，致力打造全球制造业中心。印度金融市场发展相对成熟。银行业以公共部门银行（Public Sector Banks）为主体，占银行业总资产约60%，中资商业银行中仅工行、中行在印度设有分支机构。2023年末，印度国家证券交易所总市值4.3万亿美元、位列全球第6。2022年印度总保费达1,310亿美元，为世界第十大保险市场。中国内地是印度最大进口来源国和第四大出口目的国，对华贸易持续逆差。印度主要自中国内地进口机电设备、化工产品等工业制成品，对华出口矿产品、珍珠宝石等初级产品。疫情后印度经济社会活动稳步重启，2023年第三季度印度GDP同比增长7.64%、增速较前值小幅回落0.18百分点、但较2022年同期上升2.44个百分点，领跑世界主要经济体。短期内，国内需求强劲、消费和投资持续复苏有望推动经济延续快速增长。中长期看，人口红利、制造业战略以及科技领域合作是经济增长的潜在动能。根据IMF预测，印度2025-2028年经济增速均有望保持6%以上，GDP总量或在2026年超过日本、2027年超过德国，成为仅次于美国和中国的世界第三大经济体。', 'content': 'Read summary India is located in the South Asian subcontinent, covering an area of \\u200b\\u200b2.98 million square kilometers, ranking seventh in the world. India borders Pakistan in the northwest, China, Nepal, and Bhutan in the northeast, Myanmar in the east, and Sri Lanka across the sea in the southeast. India has become the world\\'s most populous country with a complex ethnic composition. It is also one of the countries with the fastest economic growth in the world and has now become the world\\'s fifth largest economy. India\\'s service industry is advanced in development, but its manufacturing industry is relatively backward. In 2014, it launched the \"Made in India\" plan and is committed to building a global manufacturing center. The Indian financial market is relatively mature. The banking industry is dominated by Public Sector Banks, which account for about 60% of the total assets of the banking industry. Among Chinese commercial banks, only ICBC and Bank of China have branches in India. At the end of 2023, the total market value of the National Stock Exchange of India was US$4.3 trillion, ranking sixth in the world. In 2022, India\\'s total premiums reached US$131 billion, making it the tenth largest insurance market in the world. Mainland China is India\\'s largest source of imports and fourth largest export destination, and its trade with China continues to be in deficit. India mainly imports mechanical and electrical equipment, chemical products and other industrial products from mainland China, and exports mineral products, pearls and gems and other primary products to China. After the epidemic, India\\'s economic and social activities have steadily restarted. In the third quarter of 2023, India\\'s GDP increased by 7.64% year-on-year. The growth rate fell slightly by 0.18 percentage points from the previous value, but increased by 2.44 percentage points from the same period in 2022, leading the world\\'s major economies. In the short term, strong domestic demand and continued recovery in consumption and investment are expected to drive continued rapid economic growth. In the medium to long term, demographic dividend, manufacturing strategy and cooperation in the field of science and technology are potential driving forces for economic growth. According to IMF forecasts, India\\'s economic growth is expected to remain above 6% from 2025 to 2028, and its total GDP may surpass Japan in 2026 and Germany in 2027, becoming the world\\'s third largest economy after the United States and China.', 'authorid': UUID('7f90654c-29c3-5e1c-b752-8806aa7971af'), 'sentimentScore': 0.3672292195260525, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'JG956UAV8S3LMET8EN51QJRC6JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:13:26 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'JG956UAV8S3LMET8EN51QJRC6JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "IncompleteRead(2714 bytes read, 37922 more expected)\n", - "{'id': UUID('08b9a02b-898c-535f-8f39-357f56b5d31d'), 'title': '2022 Chinese Enterprise Globalization Report: Across Mountains and Seas', 'author': 'Yu Jian, Ma Shaozhi, Li Jiayi, Ma Xin, He Xiao, Li Ye, Liu Xin, Qi Dezhi, Yu Ming', 'orgName': '第一财经研究院', 'orgCode': '80189800', 'orgSName': '第一财经研究院', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQBS5q89teFlUZZYgWhQPF44=', 'researcher': '于舰,马绍之,李嘉怡,马鑫,何啸,李晔,刘昕,戚德志,于明', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000444642', '11000323536', '11000398834', '11000336039', '11000332135', '11000431737', '11000332444', '11000363831', '11000459131'], 'count': 1, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQBS5q89teFlUZZYgWhQPF44=', 'site': 'First Financial Research Institute', 'originalSite': '第一财经研究院', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622820089_1.pdf?1708615273000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622820089_1.pdf?1708615273000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '2022 Chinese Enterprise Globalization Report: Across Mountains and Seas', 'originalAuthor': '于舰,马绍之,李嘉怡,马鑫,何啸,李晔,刘昕,戚德志,于明', 'originalContent': '风浪有时，同在山海间两年前，我们来到深圳一家产品市场主要在欧美的中国企业走访。在人们似乎都在评说逆全球化风潮对中国的全球化公司会有严重影响的时候，作为处于风急浪高处的它们感知最深。这家公司的人说，他们几乎不怎么关注无法控制的人为因素，会把精力专注于产品创新、提高市场竞争力上面去。在一段时间里，人们对产品的消费需求不容易改变，对产品性能更高的追求没有改变，对于一个制造企业来说，产品有市场才是最为重要的。市场在，企业就能活下去。时而出现的逆全球化风浪只会给供需双方提高交易的成本，比如说交付的时间长了，价格上去了。这样的话在过去两年的时间里一定程度上得到了印证——2021年和2022年，全球贸易总额连创历史新高，中国的进出口总额也是如此。近年来，“逆全球化”并没有在贸易数据上体现，面对困难，人们采取了积极的应对之策。所以，最近一段时间，世界贸易组织提出了“再全球化”的呼吁，顺应人心，现实中也有必要。今年前八个月，虽然全球贸易数据，包括中国，在前两年的高速增长后有所下滑，全球贸易同此凉热，中国并非特例。但细看一下，还是有很多趋势变化的信息值得关注。中国一些生产高附加值产品的公司营业收入数据依然保持高速增长。这让我们思考：什么样的公司能够跨越经济发展的周期？什么样的产品能够在即便消费需求总体下降的时候依然有市场？抽取案例发现，那些高附加值、科技含量高、为人们生产生活所必需和必要的产品，往往在市场出现总体萎缩的时候，依然能靠创新赢得市场，保有可持续发展的动力。在我们“跨越山海”的中国企业全球化调研案例的公司中，潍柴动力2023年上半年营业收入和归母净利润分别同比大幅增长22%和63%。同时，公司上半年的海外收入占比也达到约73%，海外业务的三个主要产品销量都出现大幅增长，有两个增幅高达90%以上。我们调研的案例公司——豪迈科技的2023年半年报显示，上半年公司的营业收入和归母净利润也分别增长12%和37%。这些表现优秀的公司数据不仅仅是一个成绩，也是一个个样本，让我们知道什么是可以的，什么样的产品能冲破逆全球化和经济转向下行时的风浪。第一财经研究院于2021年开启了中国企业全球化课题研究，我们用衡量企业全球化的重要指标构建评价模型，搜集分析数据，从点到面来观察中国现阶段的全球化企业微观和宏观画像。在本报告中，我们对中国典型的全球化企业案例也进行了较为详尽地呈现。中国改革开放四十多年的历史中，这些全球化企业承载了经济改革开放的重任，它们是跨越山海的弄潮儿。两年来，我们这个课题项目在运行中其实也遇到过困难，最明显的是在新冠疫情大流行的最后一年。那个时候，逆全球化的风潮再加上疫情对全球经济的打击，很多人对全球化这件事在犹疑，信心摇摆，在困难中甚至对世界的未来充满了深深的不确定，提全球化好像是过去式。是什么让我们坚定信心继续做下去的？在去年进博会召开的时候，我在会场里看到从疫情中慢慢恢复过来的企业信心十足的样子，感染了我；宁波、苏州等地政府自发组织的商人出海团感染了我；一家全球化中国公司自己投资建造的出海货轮准备下水的消息感染了我……那些全球化的企业用自己的努力跨越山海，把商品、把服务、把文化带到需要它们到达的地方。我们同在这个星球之上，在不同的地方却有着共同的愿望。开放与贸易紧密联结，人们对于和平与发展的向往应该是共通的。商品走进的地方，枪炮便会停下它的脚步。世界贸易组织总干事奥孔乔-伊维拉表示，1945年以后的国际经济秩序建立在这样的理念之上：通过加强贸易和经济联系，各国之间相互依存，促进和平与共同繁荣。在今天，我们认为依然如此。经济的联结，贸易的往来，会解决人类社会目前亟待解决的诸如贫困、饥饿、歧视等等问题。出海的人们，从来都不会等到风平浪静再出发，他们会造好船，补好帆，装好桅杆，在海上，做足时时迎接风浪的准备。他们的使命是心怀初始，向着彼岸的目标。我们需要记录这个时代在贸易往来、跨越山海的路上，那些无惧风浪的赶海人。', 'content': 'Sometimes there are storms, but two years ago, we came to Shenzhen to visit a Chinese company whose product markets are mainly in Europe and the United States. When people seem to be commenting that the anti-globalization trend will have a serious impact on China\\'s global companies, they, as those at the top of the storm, feel it the most. People at this company said that they paid little attention to uncontrollable human factors and would focus on product innovation and improving market competitiveness. Over a period of time, people\\'s consumer demand for products is not easy to change, and the pursuit of higher product performance has not changed. For a manufacturing company, the most important thing is that the product has a market. As long as the market exists, companies can survive. The occasional anti-globalization wave will only increase transaction costs for both supply and demand parties. For example, delivery times will take longer and prices will rise. This has been confirmed to a certain extent in the past two years - in 2021 and 2022, the total global trade volume has hit record highs, as has China\\'s total import and export volume. In recent years, \"anti-globalization\" has not been reflected in trade data. In the face of difficulties, people have adopted active countermeasures. Therefore, in recent times, the World Trade Organization has put forward a call for \"re-globalization\", which is in line with people\\'s hearts and is necessary in reality. In the first eight months of this year, although global trade data, including that of China, declined after the rapid growth in the previous two years, global trade has also cooled down, and China is not a special case. But if you take a closer look, there is still a lot of information about trend changes worth paying attention to. The operating income data of some Chinese companies that produce high value-added products still maintain rapid growth. This got us thinking: What kind of companies can leapfrog economic development cycles? What kind of products can still have a market even when consumer demand overall declines? Extracting cases shows that those products with high added value, high technological content, and necessary for people\\'s production and life can often still win the market through innovation and maintain the power of sustainable development when the market is generally shrinking. Among the companies in our \"Across Mountains and Seas\" Chinese enterprise globalization research case, Weichai Power\\'s operating income and net profit attributable to the parent company increased significantly by 22% and 63% respectively year-on-year in the first half of 2023. At the same time, the company\\'s overseas revenue in the first half of the year also accounted for approximately 73%. The sales of the three main products of the overseas business have increased significantly, with two of them increasing by more than 90%. The 2023 semi-annual report of the case company we investigated, Halma Technology, shows that the company\\'s operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company also increased by 12% and 37% respectively in the first half of the year. These outstanding company data are not just results, but also samples, allowing us to know what is possible and what kind of products can break through the waves of anti-globalization and economic downturns. China Business News Research Institute has launched a research on the globalization of Chinese enterprises in 2021. We use important indicators to measure the globalization of enterprises to build an evaluation model, collect and analyze data, and observe the micro and macro aspects of China\\'s current globalized enterprises from point to aspect. portrait. In this report, we also present China’s typical cases of globalized enterprises in more detail. In the more than 40 years of China\\'s reform and opening up, these global enterprises have shouldered the heavy responsibility of economic reform and opening up. They are the trendsetters across mountains and seas. In the past two years, our project has actually encountered difficulties in the operation, the most obvious one was in the last year of the COVID-19 pandemic. At that time, with the trend of anti-globalization and the impact of the epidemic on the global economy, many people were hesitant about globalization, their confidence was wavering, and they were even full of deep uncertainty about the future of the world amid difficulties. Transformation seems to be the past tense. What gives us the confidence to continue? When the China International Import Expo was held last year, I saw in the venue the confidence of companies that were slowly recovering from the epidemic, and I was infected; I was also infected by the businessmen overseas groups organized by the governments of Ningbo, Suzhou and other places; a family The news that globalized Chinese companies have invested in and built ocean-going cargo ships is about to be launched... Those globalized companies use their own efforts to cross mountains and seas and bring goods, services, and culture to the places where they need to go. We are on the same planet, but we share the same aspirations in different places. Openness and trade are closely linked, and people should share the same yearning for peace and development. Wherever the merchandise goes, the guns stop. Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization, said that the international economic order after 1945 was based on the concept that by strengthening trade and economic ties, countries are interdependent and promote peace and common prosperity. Today, we believe this is still the case. Economic connections and trade exchanges will solve the problems that human society currently needs to solve, such as poverty, hunger, discrimination and so on. People who go to sea never wait until the weather is calm before setting off. They build ships, mend sails, install masts, and are fully prepared to face wind and waves at sea. Their mission is to keep the original intention in mind and move towards the goal of the other side. We need to record those people who were not afraid of wind and waves on the way to trade and across mountains and seas in this era.', 'authorid': UUID('c21c58d8-dec9-54fd-b892-13d4e8cafe20'), 'sentimentScore': 0.043955471366643906, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'ISTO6MCG5SA0NJELF0UU0M3T43VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:14:06 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'ISTO6MCG5SA0NJELF0UU0M3T43VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('80395ca7-4bb8-5638-81a0-c412e8a608da'), 'title': 'Comments on the LPR cut in February 2024: The asymmetric LPR cut will help the economy get off to a good start in the first quarter', 'author': 'Fu Yang , Liu Qian', 'orgName': '中航证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000197', 'orgSName': '中航证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQOV8hlpM4CdtG3x4IUUzkdg=', 'researcher': '符旸,刘倩', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177393', '11000424332'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQOV8hlpM4CdtG3x4IUUzkdg=', 'site': 'AVIC Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中航证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622803839_1.pdf?1708620528000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622803839_1.pdf?1708620528000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on the LPR cut in February 2024: The asymmetric LPR cut will help the economy get off to a good start in the first quarter', 'originalAuthor': '符旸,刘倩', 'originalContent': '核心观点5年期LPR报价下调25BP，幅度超出市场预期2月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，1年期LPR为3.45%，上次为3.45%；5年期以上LPR为3.95%，上次为4.2%。2024年首轮降息落地，此次5年期以上LPR单边下调，是继2023年6月下调10个基点后，时隔8个月再度下调，且创2019年LPR报价制度改革以来单次下调最大幅度，超出市场预期。降息背景其一：引导实际利率下降，促进融资成本下行，巩固经济回升向好基础2023年下半年以来，在有效需求不足、部分产业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱、外部环境不确定性上升等多种因素夹击下，国内经济恢复的进程不及预期。在助力稳增长的强力需求下，2023年央行货币政策逆周期调节力度有所加大，2023年3月和9月两次降准，累计降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点。降息方面，自去年6月由OMO利率引导LPR利率调降10BP之后，8月由MLF利率引导新一轮非对称降息，一年期LPR下调10个基点，5年期LPR按兵不动。2023年房地产行业恢复不及预期，对整体经济增长呈现拖累作用。2023年四季度以来官方制造业PMI指数持续运行在收缩区间，经济内生动力不足，市场对于货币政策助力稳增长的期待上升。在政策合力推动2024年一季度经济“开门红”的关键时期，5年期LPR报价大幅下调呼应了市场的宽松预期，有利于提振市场信心，进一步引导实体经济融资利率下降，稳固支持实体经济持续恢复向好，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。名义利率等于实际利率加通胀率。2023年年初以来，CPI整体呈下行趋势。2024年1月CPI同比录得-0.8%，连续四个月处于通缩区间，同比跌幅较12月扩大0.5PCTS。虽然CPI超预期的跌幅在一定程度上受到去年春节假期在1月的春节错位因素影响，但是也反映出当前居民消费和经济内生需求的修复仍然较低。工业品方面，PPI在2023年全年均处于负区间，工业生产需求也有待修复。因此，虽然当前我国名义利率（政策利率、国债利率和贷款利率）均处于历史低位，但是CPI和PPI均处于负区间，使得无论生产者还是消费者，目前的实际利率水平都处于历史高位。往后看，经济回升和需求的复苏不能一蹴而就，叠加通胀抬升的滞后效应，短期内物价水平或仍处于较为低迷的状态。因此，尽早通过进一步的货币宽松，降低名义利率，以驱动经济复苏和通胀回升，进而压低实际利率是必要的。降息背景二：银行资金成本下行为LPR调降挪出空间近期银行资金成本下行幅度显著，为LPR调降挪出了空间。一方面，多家国有银行在2023年9月和12月下调存款挂牌利率，两轮存款利率压降缓解了银行系统的息差压力，为进一步降息提供了有利条件。另一方面，1月25日，人民银行下调了再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点；2月5日，降准0.5个百分点，释放约1万亿元中长期低成本资金；2023年四季度以来央行通过MLF净投放流动性超过2万亿，有效向金融机构提供了流动性支持。这些政策措施有效降低了银行中长期负债成本，增加了下调LPR报价的空间。往后看，考虑到5年期以上LPR是中长期企业贷款和个人住房贷款定价的主要参考基准，5年期LPR调降会降低居民房贷利息支出。房地产市场当前正处于企稳复苏的关键阶段，降息利好资金成本的下调，释放了助力房地产市场平稳运行的强力信号，有利于提振房地产市场需求，改善商品房销售和信贷复苏情况。此外，LPR利率调降对于防范化解债务风险意义重大。LPR报价持续下调带动贷款利率下行，也将为今年地方债务风险化解提供更为有利的条件。货币政策年内或有进一步调整的空间综上，从稳物价、稳信贷、稳经济以及稳妥有效防范化解重点领域金融风险等多方面需求来看，本次调降政策利率是必要的，也是及时的。央行行长潘功胜在2024年1月召开的国新办新闻发布会上表示，2024年，人民银行在货币政策工具的使用中，将强化跨周期和逆周期调节，为经济增长和物价稳定���造良好的货币金融环境。在内需不足的基本面没有得到根本扭转的前提下，年内稳增长政策发力离不开货币政策的支持。另一方面，从近年来的LPR走势来看，1年期LPR自2022年以来调整了3次，5年期及以上LPR则是下调了4次，基本上保持每年调整2次的节奏。因此年内政策利率或仍有进一步调整的空间。但短期内再次宽松，进一步调降政策利率的需求可能并不迫切。外部环境方面，近日美国通胀数据全面超出预期，打压了市场对于美联储降息的押注。截至2月16日，美国10年期国债收益率录得4.30%，2月初以来持续上行近30BP。对此美联储多位官员强调政策须保持耐心。2024年开局的通胀数据呈现全面强势，或推迟美联储首次降息的时点，对国内货币政策的约束边际上升。内部条件方面，随着本轮降息落地，货币政策滞后效应之下央行和市场均需时间观察确认宽松对于经济和需求的刺激效果。2024年1月金融数据明显改善，社融结构由此前的政府债拉动为主转向私人部门融资需求拉动为主；M1增速大幅改善，M1—M2剪刀差明显收敛，显示经济活化水平正在上升。综上，预计短期内二次降息的迫切性并不高。风险提示：国内政策推行不及预期；地缘政治事件超预期；海外流动性收紧超预期；国内需求端恢复速度显著偏慢', 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'核心观点5年期LPR报价下调25BP，幅度超出市场预期2月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，1年期LPR为3.45%，上次为3.45%；5年期以上LPR为3.95%，上次为4.2%。2024年首轮降息落地，此次5年期以上LPR单边下调，是继2023年6月下调10个基点后，时隔8个月再度下调，且创2019年LPR报价制度改革以来单次下调最大幅度，超出市场预期。降息背景其一：引导实际利率下降，促进融资成本下行，巩固经济回升向好基础2023年下半年以来，在有效需求不足、部分产业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱、外部环境不确定性上升等多种因素夹击下，国内经济恢复的进程不及预期。在助力稳增长的强力需求下，2023年央行货币政策逆周期调节力度有所加大，2023年3月和9月两次降准，累计降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点。降息方面，自去年6月由OMO利率引导LPR利率调降10BP之后，8月由MLF利率引导新一轮非对称降息，一年期LPR下调10个基点，5年期LPR按兵不动。2023年房地产行业恢复不及预期，对整体经济增长呈现拖累作用。2023年四季度以来官方制造业PMI指数持续运行在收缩区间，经济内生动力不足，市场对于货币政策助力稳增长的期待上升。在政策合力推动2024年一季度经济“开门红”的关键时期，5年期LPR报价大幅下调呼应了市场的宽松预期，有利于提振市场信心，进一步引导实体经济融资利率下降，稳固支持实体经济持续恢复向好，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。名义利率等于实际利率加通胀率。2023年年初以来，CPI整体呈下行趋势。2024年1月CPI同比录得-0.8%，连续四个月处于通缩区间，同比跌幅较12月扩大0.5PCTS。虽然CPI超预期的跌幅在一定程度上受到去年春节假期在1月的春节错位因素影响，但是也反映出当前居民消费和经济内生需求的修复仍然较低。工业品方面，PPI在2023年全年均处于负区间，工业生产需求也有待修复。因此，虽然当前我国名义利率（政策利率、国债利率和贷款利率）均处于历史低位，但是CPI和PPI均处于负区间，使得无论生产者还是消费者，目前的实际利率水平都处于历史高位。往后看，经济回升和需求的复苏不能一蹴而就，叠加通胀抬升的滞后效应，短期内物价水平或仍处于较为低迷的状态。因此，尽早通过进一步的货币宽松，降低名义利率，以驱动经济复苏和通胀回升，进而压低实际利率是必要的。降息背景二：银行资金成本下行为LPR调降挪出空间近期银行资金成本下行幅度显著，为LPR调降挪出了空间。一方面，多家国有银行在2023年9月和12月下调存款挂牌利率，两轮存款利率压降缓解了银行系统的息差压力，为进一步降息提供了有利条件。另一方面，1月25日，人民银行下调了再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点；2月5日，降准0.5个百分点，释放约1万亿元中长期低成本资金；2023年四季度以来央行通过MLF净投放流动性超过2万亿，有效向金融机构提供了流动性支持。这些政策措施有效降低了银行中长期负债成本，增加了下调LPR报价的空间。往后看，考虑到5年期以上LPR是中长期企业贷款和个人住房贷款定价的主要参考基准，5年期LPR调降会降低居民房贷利息支出。房地产市场当前正处于企稳复苏的关键阶���，降息利好资金成本的下调，释放了助力房地产市场平稳运行的强力信号，有利于提振房地产市场需求，改善商品房销售和信贷复苏情况。此外，LPR利率调降对于防范化解债务风险意义重大。LPR报价持续下调带动贷款利率下行，也将为今年地方债务风险化解提供更为有利的条件。货币政策年内或有进一步调整的空间综上，从稳物价、稳信贷、稳经济以及稳妥有效防范化解重点领域金融风险等多方面需求来看，本次调降政策利率是必要的，也是及时的。央行行长潘功胜在2024年1月召开的国新办新闻发布会上表示，2024年，人民银行在货币政策工具的使用中，将强化跨周期和逆周期调节，为经济增长和物价稳定营造良好的货币金融环境。在内需不足的基本面没有得到根本扭转的前提下，年内稳增长政策发力离不开货币政策的支持。另一方面，从近年来的LPR走势来看，1年期LPR自2022年以来调整了3次，5年期及以上LPR则是下调了4次，基本上保持每年调整2次的节奏。因此年内政策利率或仍有进一步调整的空间。但短期内再次宽松，进一步调降政策利率的需求可能并不迫切。外部环境方面，近日美国通胀数据全面超出预期，打压了市场对于美联储降息的押注。截至2月16日，美国10年期国债收益率录得4.30%，2月初以来持续上行近30BP。对此美联储多位官员强调政策须保持耐心。2024年开局的通胀数据呈现全面强势，或推迟美联储首次降息的时点，对国内货币政策的约束边际上升。内部条件方面，随着本轮降息落地，货币政策滞后效应之下央行和市场均需时间观察确认宽松对于经济和需求的刺激效果。2024年1月金融数据明显改善，社融结构由此前的政府债拉动为主转向私人部门融资需求拉动为主；M1增速大幅改善，M1—M2剪刀差明显收敛，显示经济活化水平正在上升。综上，预计短期内二次降息的迫切性并不高。风险提示：国内政策推行不及预期；地缘政治事件超预期；海外流动性收紧超预期；国内需求端恢复速度显著偏慢', 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'数字政府已呈现一体化发展态势党的十八大以来，数字化发展步伐加快，“一网通办”“一网统管”“一网协同”等创新实践不断涌现，推动数字政府建设效能大幅提升，有力支撑了国家治理体系和治理能力现代化建设。与此同时，在政策、服务、数据、技术和底座等方面，我国数字政府建设已呈现出一体化的发展局面。（一）政策：从宏观到微观推进一体化布局从国家层面看，数字政府一体化建设工作部署日趋清晰。一是“十四五”规划纲要率先勾勒了数字政府建设的宏观轮廓。《“十四五”规划纲要》首次专篇阐述“加快数字化发展建设数字中国”，篇中单独设立章节，强调要“提高数字政府建设水平”，并提出了加强公共数据开放共享、推动政务信息化共建共用和提高数字化政务服务效能三大重点任务。二是国家出台指导意见正式确立了数字政府建设的总体框架。国务院印发的《关于加强数字政府建设的指导意见》，对我国数字政府建设作出了全面安排，明确提出“三个首次”，成为数字政府领域的纲领性指导文件。三是国家政务信息化规划系统部署了数字政府建设的重大工程。国家发改委印发《“十四五”推进国家政务信息化规划》，以“大数据、大平台、大系统”为总抓手，指导推进三大任务11项具体工程。四是一体化政务大数据体系详细绘就了数字政府建设的施工图纸。2022年9月13日，国务院办公厅印发了《全国一体化政务大数据体系建设指南》，明确提出了一体化推进统筹管理、数据目录、数据资源、共享交换、数据服务、算力设施、标准规范和安全保障八大方面的具体任务。从地方层面看，数字政府一体化建设成为主流路径选择。浙江、广东、上海作为我国数字政府建设的典型代表，始终以一体化建设理念推进数字政府建设，涌现出“一网系列”1创新实践，越来越多的省市开始统筹部署数字政府一体化建设。2022年12月26日，福建省人民政府发布了《福建省数字政府改革和建设总体方案》，提出坚持“全省一盘棋、上下一体化建设”原则，构建一张网、一朵云、三大一体化平台和一个综合门户，支撑N个应用的“1131﹢N”一体化数字政府体系，并对2025年发展目标和2035年远景目标进行明确规划。2023年4月，重庆市提出加快建设“1361”整体构架，以一体化智能化公共数据平台为核心，推进市、区县、乡镇（街道）数字化城市运行和治理中心一体化部署，抓好6大应用系统建设，更好推进基层智治体系建设，促进纵向贯通、横向联动、多跨协同，全方位提升城市发展能力、服务能力、治理能力。', 'content': 'Digital government has shown an integrated development trend. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the pace of digital development has accelerated. Innovative practices such as \"one network for all services\", \"one network for unified management\" and \"one network for collaboration\" have continued to emerge, which have greatly improved the efficiency of digital government construction and provided strong support. modernize the national governance system and governance capabilities. At the same time, my country\\'s digital government construction has shown an integrated development situation in terms of policies, services, data, technology and infrastructure. (1) Policy: Promote integrated layout from macro to micro. From a national level, the deployment of integrated construction of digital government is becoming increasingly clear. First, the “14th Five-Year Plan” outline took the lead in outlining the macro outline of digital government construction. The \"14th Five-Year Plan Outline\" elaborates on \"accelerating digital development and building a digital China\" for the first time. It has a separate chapter, emphasizing the need to \"improve the level of digital government construction\", and proposes to strengthen the open sharing of public data and promote government information. There are three key tasks: co-construction and sharing and improving the efficiency of digital government services. Second, the country has issued guidance to formally establish the overall framework for digital government construction. The \"Guiding Opinions on Strengthening the Construction of Digital Government\" issued by the State Council made comprehensive arrangements for the construction of digital government in our country, clearly proposed \"three firsts\", and became a programmatic guidance document in the field of digital government. Third, the national government information planning system has deployed major projects in digital government construction. The National Development and Reform Commission issued the \"14th Five-Year Plan for Promoting National Government Informatization\", which uses \"big data, big platforms, and big systems\" as the overall focus to guide the advancement of three major tasks and 11 specific projects. Fourth, the integrated government big data system has drawn up the construction drawings of digital government construction in detail. On September 13, 2022, the General Office of the State Council issued the \"Guidelines for the Construction of a National Integrated Government Big Data System\", which clearly proposed the integration of overall management, data catalogs, data resources, sharing and exchange, data services, computing facilities, and standards. Specific tasks in eight aspects of standardization and safety assurance. From a local level, the integrated construction of digital government has become the mainstream path choice. Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Shanghai, as typical representatives of my country\\'s digital government construction, have always promoted digital government construction with the concept of integrated construction, and innovative practices of \"one network series\"1 have emerged. More and more provinces and cities have begun to coordinate the deployment of digital government integration. construction. On December 26, 2022, the Fujian Provincial People\\'s Government released the \"Fujian Provincial Digital Government Reform and Construction Overall Plan\", proposing to adhere to the principle of \"one game of chess across the province and integrated construction from top to bottom\" to build one network, one cloud, and three major The integrated platform and a comprehensive portal support the \"1131﹢N\" integrated digital government system for N applications, and clearly plan the development goals for 2025 and the long-term goals for 2035. In April 2023, Chongqing proposed to accelerate the construction of the \"1361\" overall architecture, with an integrated intelligent public data platform as the core, promote the integrated deployment of digital city operation and governance centers at municipalities, districts, counties, towns (streets), and do a good job in 6 The construction of large application systems will better promote the construction of grassroots intelligent governance systems, promote vertical integration, horizontal linkage, and multi-span collaboration, and comprehensively improve urban development capabilities, service capabilities, and governance capabilities.', 'authorid': UUID('0a68eb57-c88a-5f34-9e9d-27f85e68af4f'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6879520481452346, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '9R9U6CES4931KRTMMFF6EO0SFJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:14:13 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '9R9U6CES4931KRTMMFF6EO0SFJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('deaacf70-b8c1-5ffe-afa7-3bc2bb51920b'), 'title': '50 years of Japan’s major asset classes: review and outlook', 'author': 'Yan Xiang, Xu Ruchun', 'orgName': '华福证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000065', 'orgSName': '华福证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQLIXl9iPphXBfi3x0FtxdrM=', 'researcher': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000223033', '11000339132'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQLIXl9iPphXBfi3x0FtxdrM=', 'site': 'Huafu Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华福证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622761560_1.pdf?1708608689000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622761560_1.pdf?1708608689000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '50 years of Japan’s major asset classes: review and outlook', 'originalAuthor': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'originalContent': '1972-2023年，日股总体跑赢其他日本资产，1972-1989年和2013年后的超额优势显著，但1990-2012年失去的二十年间表现不佳：（1）大部分资产跑赢通胀，日股和黄金领先，债券其次。70-80年代日股大幅领先其他资产，1990年泡沫经济破灭后日股回撤明显，债持续优于股，直到2013年日股再度领跑；（2）风险-收益比看，日本资产整体不及美国资产，股票类资产尤为明显，源于过早进入负利率及日股在1990-2012年表现不佳。1972年以来日本大类资产主要经历五轮周期：（1）减速换挡期（1972-1985）：大宗商品价格暴涨+内生增长动能下滑，日本经济减速换挡，但产业结构转型升级成功，大类资产上日股大幅领涨，黄金其次；（2）泡沫的盛宴（1986-1989）：广场协议后日元大幅升值、出口走弱，日本货币政策大幅宽松，日股、房地产均加速上涨，到1989年泡沫经济达到巅峰；（3）失去的二十年（1990-2012）：1990年泡沫经济破灭后，日本经济经历近二十年的低迷阶段，1998年后长期陷入通缩，日股和房地产大幅回撤，债券类资产领跑；（4）安倍经济学（2013-2019）：2012年底安倍政府上台，推行“安倍经济学”，尽管政策成本存在争议，但从结果看带动日本经济温和复苏，逐步走出通缩阴霾，日股再次领先；（5）“日特估”崛起（2020-今）：超宽松货币+积极财政政策刺激下，日本经济快速走出疫情阴霾，而企业盈利明显提升，叠加公司治理结构改善、日元贬值，日股再度吸引全球投资人目光，累计收益超过1989年前高。展望2024年，再通胀推动下，大类资产上日股或仍领先日债和日元，日特估叙事有望继续演绎：（1）日本经济或温和下行但仍在潜在增速以上，尤其是走出通缩局面下，内需或带来更大支撑；（2）货币政策大概率朝正常化方向迈进、年内有望退出负利率，对应日元升值、日债收益率上行概率较高；（3）对于日股而言，再通胀下企业盈利仍有支撑，估值层面截至1月底日股已超历史均值但并未显著高估，低于美股但高于其他主要股指，增量资金层面外资和内资均有较大增配空间，对应2024年日股仍有上涨空间，但短期涨幅较大，需警惕回调压力。近年来国内市场对日本的关注度持续提升，日本经验对A股市场有一定借鉴意义：（1）2013年后日股再次领跑，主要源于盈利驱动，也即企业盈利持续改善；（2）政策层面自上而下推动日本上市公司治理改革，带动日股盈利能力和股票投资价值改善；（3）1990年以来日本股市结构变迁反映了日本经济从金融地产为主导转向以消费科技为主导的增长模式。风险提示：历史经验不代表未来；数据计算存在误差；再通胀受阻等。', 'content': 'From 1972 to 2023, Japanese stocks generally outperformed other Japanese assets. The excess advantage from 1972 to 1989 and after 2013 was significant, but the performance was poor in the lost two decades from 1990 to 2012: (1) Most assets outperformed In terms of inflation, Japanese stocks and gold lead, followed by bonds. In the 1970s and 1980s, Japanese stocks significantly led other assets. After the bubble economy burst in 1990, Japanese stocks retreated significantly, and bonds continued to outperform stocks until 2013, when Japanese stocks took the lead again; (2) In terms of risk-return ratio, Japanese assets fell behind overall U.S. assets, especially stock assets, are due to the premature entry into negative interest rates and the poor performance of Japanese stocks from 1990 to 2012. Since 1972, Japan\\'s major asset classes have mainly experienced five cycles: (1) The deceleration and shifting period (1972-1985): Commodity prices skyrocketed + endogenous growth momentum declined. Japan\\'s economy decelerated and shifted, but the industrial structure was transformed and upgraded successfully. Japanese stocks led the surge in major asset categories, followed by gold; (2) Bubble feast (1986-1989): After the Plaza Accord, the yen appreciated sharply, exports weakened, Japan\\'s monetary policy was significantly loosened, and Japanese stocks and real estate all accelerated their rise. , the bubble economy reached its peak in 1989; (3) The Lost Twenty Years (1990-2012): After the bubble economy burst in 1990, the Japanese economy experienced a downturn for nearly two decades, and fell into deflation for a long time after 1998. Japanese stocks and real estate have retreated sharply, with bond assets leading the way; (4) Abenomics (2013-2019): The Abe government came to power at the end of 2012 and implemented \"Abenomics\". Although the cost of the policy is controversial, the results show that the Japanese economy is moderate Recovery, gradually emerging from the haze of deflation, and Japanese stocks are once again leading; (5) The rise of \"Japanese special estimates\" (2020-present): Stimulated by ultra-loose money + active fiscal policies, the Japanese economy quickly emerged from the haze of the epidemic, and corporate profits increased significantly. Coupled with the improvement of corporate governance structure and the depreciation of the yen, Japanese stocks once again attracted the attention of global investors, with cumulative returns exceeding the previous high in 1989. Looking forward to 2024, driven by reflation, Japanese stocks may still lead Japanese bonds and the Japanese yen in major asset categories, and the Japanese special assessment narrative is expected to continue: (1) Japan\\'s economy may decline moderately but is still above the potential growth rate, especially After exiting the deflationary situation, domestic demand may bring greater support; (2) Monetary policy is likely to move towards normalization, and negative interest rates are expected to exit within the year, corresponding to the appreciation of the yen and the probability of an increase in Japanese bond yields; (3) For Japan In terms of stocks, corporate profits are still supported under reflation. As of the end of January, Japanese stocks have exceeded the historical average but are not significantly overvalued. It is lower than the US stock market but higher than other major stock indexes. In terms of incremental funds, foreign and domestic capital have There is a large room for additional allocations, which means that Japanese stocks still have room to rise in 2024, but the short-term gains are large, so we need to be wary of callback pressure. In recent years, the domestic market\\'s attention to Japan has continued to increase, and Japan\\'s experience has certain reference significance for the A-share market: (1) Japanese stocks once again led the way after 2013, mainly due to profit-driven, that is, the continued improvement of corporate profits; (2) The policy level promotes the governance reform of Japanese listed companies from top to bottom, driving the improvement of Japanese stock profitability and stock investment value; (3) The structural changes in the Japanese stock market since 1990 reflect the shift of the Japanese economy from one dominated by finance and real estate to one dominated by consumer technology. growth model. Risk warning: historical experience does not represent the future; there are errors in data calculations; reflation is blocked, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('91584e59-c8cd-5c63-a616-39b00d7419c0'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9323691595345736, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'O9U94P0BQKUV4CHTQ4V20DHBP3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:14:15 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'O9U94P0BQKUV4CHTQ4V20DHBP3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9db2805b-ea35-58e3-9e12-151b50a7f7f2'), 'title': 'Macro daily: Domestic assets stabilize and gain momentum, focus on initial February PMI values \\u200b\\u200bin Europe and the United States', 'author': 'Cai Shaoli, Gao Cong', 'orgName': '华泰期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80055521', 'orgSName': '华泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQFs8tF/0qx3DiMO5wdzbny0=', 'researcher': '蔡劭立,高聪', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000304033', '11000304231'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQFs8tF/0qx3DiMO5wdzbny0=', 'site': 'Huatai Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622758665_1.pdf?1708594899000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622758665_1.pdf?1708594899000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro daily: Domestic assets stabilize and gain momentum, focus on initial February PMI values \\u200b\\u200bin Europe and the United States', 'originalAuthor': '蔡劭立,高聪', 'originalContent': '策略摘要商品期货：黑色、有色、化工买入套保；农产品、能源、贵金属中性；股指期货：买入套保。核心观点市场分析LPR 超预期且非对称下调。 2 月 20 日，央行超预期下调 5 年期 LPR 利率 25bp，与此同时 1 年期 LPR 维持不变，此举稳定地产市场预期信号强烈。随后 2 月 21 日 A 股低开走高，商品中的黑色、有色板块多数上涨，目前核心在于节后复工复产进度。从日历效应来看，回溯 2011 年至 2023 年，剔除 2020 年共 12 个春节样本，假期期间的消费对于农产品中的谷物、软商品、油脂油料有一定支撑，节后首日样本上涨概率接近或>70%；节后首周，在复工复产逻辑驱动下，有色、黑色原料、非金属建材表现相对亮眼；节后首月，黄金表现相对亮眼。关注假期后复工复产进度。春假假期是国内主要工业品库存季节性变化的主要原因之一，在春节假期前，下游工厂和施工项目将逐渐提前放假，节后复工，与此同时，上游成材生产端降幅较低，带来春节前后的库存周期性变化，春节因素对价格的影响甚至能跨越前后两个月，该阶段的库存超季节性变动则对价格影响明显上升，目前呈现供需双弱的局面。国内地产预期持续改善对整体黑色板块有所提振，目前静待微观数据确认。能源方面， 2024 年一季度累库预期是当前拖累油价的主要逻辑；化工板块芳烃线具有韧性，关注苯乙烯、 PX、 PTA 的机会。农产品目前重点关注南美天气变化，带来的饲料机会。贵金属方面，趋势上继续保持乐观，但短期降息计价持续修复，仍需要等待信号。风险地缘政治风险（能源板块上行风险）；全球经济超预期下行（风险资产下行风险）；美联储超预期收紧（风险资产下行风险）；海外流动性风险冲击（风险资产下行风险）。', 'content': 'Strategy summary: Commodity futures: black, non-ferrous, chemical industry buy hedging; agricultural products, energy, precious metals neutral; stock index futures: buy hedging. Core view: Market analysis: LPR exceeded expectations and was lowered asymmetrically. On February 20, the central bank lowered the 5-year LPR interest rate by 25bp more than expected. At the same time, the 1-year LPR remained unchanged. This move has a strong signal of stabilizing the real estate market. Then on February 21, A-shares opened lower and moved higher. Most of the black and non-ferrous sectors in commodities rose. The current focus is on the progress of resumption of work and production after the holiday. From the calendar effect point of view, looking back from 2011 to 2023, excluding a total of 12 Spring Festival samples in 2020, consumption during the holiday has certain support for grains, soft commodities, oils and fats in agricultural products, and the probability of sample increases on the first day after the holiday is close to or >70%; in the first week after the holiday, driven by the logic of resumption of work and production, the performance of non-ferrous and black raw materials and non-metallic building materials was relatively bright; in the first month after the holiday, the performance of gold was relatively bright. Pay attention to the progress of resumption of work and production after the holidays. The Spring Break holiday is one of the main reasons for the seasonal changes in the inventory of major domestic industrial products. Before the Spring Festival holiday, downstream factories and construction projects will gradually take the holiday in advance and resume work after the holiday. At the same time, the upstream finished product production will have a lower decline, which will bring There are cyclical changes in inventory before and after the Spring Festival. The impact of the Spring Festival factors on prices can even span the two months before and after. The super-seasonal changes in inventory at this stage have a significant impact on prices. Currently, supply and demand are both weak. The continued improvement in domestic real estate expectations has boosted the overall black sector, and we are currently waiting for confirmation from micro data. In terms of energy, the expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter of 2024 is the main logic currently dragging down oil prices; the aromatics line of the chemical sector is resilient, and attention is paid to opportunities in styrene, PX, and PTA. Agricultural products are currently focusing on the feed opportunities brought about by weather changes in South America. In terms of precious metals, the trend continues to remain optimistic, but short-term interest rate cuts and pricing continue to recover, and we still need to wait for signals. Risks include geopolitical risks (upward risks for the energy sector); unexpected downturns in the global economy (downward risks for risky assets); unexpected tightening by the Federal Reserve (downward risks for risky assets); overseas liquidity risk impacts (downward risks for risky assets).', 'authorid': UUID('1f2a6e53-dc21-5b64-b53e-783c1fe16451'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6701264530420303, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'FJFCAKG6G65E398UB6BU89KBLFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:14:17 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'FJFCAKG6G65E398UB6BU89KBLFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('90625952-97aa-54e3-b8e3-afea7303556e'), 'title': 'In February, the quotations of LPR with tenor of more than 5 years were individually lowered, and the quotations of LPR of the two types of maturities in the later period still have room to fall.', 'author': 'Wang Qing, Li Xiaofeng, Feng Lin', 'orgName': '东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司', 'orgCode': '80117870', 'orgSName': '东方金诚', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQBpb+CiXHOVA5/7ZoXQSSJs=', 'researcher': '王青,李晓峰,冯琳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000265644', '11000415035', '11000282735'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQBpb+CiXHOVA5/7ZoXQSSJs=', 'site': 'Oriental Jincheng International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东方金诚', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622754177_1.pdf?1708612663000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622754177_1.pdf?1708612663000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'In February, the quotations of LPR with tenor of more than 5 years were individually lowered, and the quotations of LPR of the two types of maturities in the later period still have room to fall.', 'originalAuthor': '王青,李晓峰,冯琳', 'originalContent': '事件：2024年2月20日，全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新版LPR报价：1年期品种报3.45%，上月为3.45%；5年期以上品种报3.95%，上月为4.2%。解读如下：一、2月1年期LPR报价不变，5年期以上LPR报价下调，直接原因是受近期降准落地等因素影响，银行资金成本下降，报价行有动力下调LPR报价加点。LPR报价由MLF操作利率和报价加点共同决定，其中，报价加点主要受银行资金成本变化、信贷市场供求状况和信用风险溢价等因素影响。2月MLF操作利率保持稳定，这意味着当月LPR报价的定价基础未发生变化，但当月降准落地，释放长期资金1万亿，可为银行每年节约资金成本90亿左右，增加了报价行下调LPR报价加点的动力。可以看到，自2019年8月LPR报价改革以来，在MLF操作利率不变的情况下，2019年9月、2021年12月1年期LPR报价和2022年5月5年期以上LPR报价进行过三次单独下调，主要受当时降准为银行节约资金成本等因素带动。另外，2023年11月、12月国内主要银行下调存款利率，再加上央行1月25日下调支农支小再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点，也对近期银行资金成本的下行起到了一定推动作用。我们认为，本次5年期以上LPR报价下调，将直接带动新发放企业中长期贷款和居民房贷利率跟进下调，有助于��振企业投资需求，稳定房地产市场运行。总体上看，本次5年期以上LPR报价下调，在价格方面释放了稳增长、稳楼市政策加力的明确信号，有助于提振市场信心，改善社会预期。本次两个期限品种的LPR报价为非对称调整，主要原因是2019年以来5年期以上LPR比1年期LPR的降幅小15个基点。5年期以上LPR报价是个人住房贷款和企事业单位中长期贷款的定价基准，当前楼市持续低位运行，投资稳增长需求较高，较大幅度下调5年期以上LPR报价有较强的必要性。而1年期LPR报价保持不动，则有助于稳定已处历史低位的银行净息差，为5年期以上LPR报价较大幅度下调腾出空间。', 'content': \"Event: On February 20, 2024, the National Interbank Funding Center announced a new version of LPR quotation: the 1-year variety was quoted at 3.45%, compared with 3.45% last month; the 5-year and above varieties were quoted at 3.95%, compared with 4.2% last month. The interpretation is as follows: 1. The 1-year LPR quotation remained unchanged in February, and the LPR quotation of 5-year and above was lowered. The direct reason is that due to the recent implementation of the RRR cut and other factors, bank capital costs have dropped, and the quoting banks have the motivation to lower the LPR quotation and add points. The LPR quotation is determined by the MLF operating interest rate and the quotation markup. Among them, the quotation markup is mainly affected by factors such as changes in bank capital costs, credit market supply and demand conditions, and credit risk premiums. The MLF operating interest rate remained stable in February, which means that the pricing basis of the LPR quotation for that month has not changed. However, the RRR reduction was implemented that month, releasing 1 trillion in long-term funds, which can save banks about 9 billion in annual capital costs, increasing the number of quotation banks. The motivation to add points to the LPR quotation. It can be seen that since the LPR quotation reform in August 2019, with the MLF operating interest rate unchanged, the 1-year LPR quotations in September 2019 and December 2021 and the 5-year or above LPR quotations in May 2022 have been carried out. There have been three separate reductions, mainly driven by factors such as the savings in capital costs for banks at that time. In addition, major domestic banks lowered deposit interest rates in November and December 2023, and the central bank lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates to support agriculture and small businesses by 0.25 percentage points on January 25, which also played a role in the recent decline in bank capital costs. Promoting effect. We believe that this reduction in LPR quotations with a maturity of more than 5 years will directly lead to subsequent reductions in the interest rates of newly issued medium- and long-term corporate loans and residential mortgage loans, which will help boost corporate investment demand and stabilize the operation of the real estate market. Generally speaking, this reduction in LPR quotations with a maturity of more than 5 years has released a clear signal in terms of price stabilization of growth and stable property market policies, which will help boost market confidence and improve social expectations. The LPR quotations of the two maturity varieties this time are asymmetrically adjusted. The main reason is that since 2019, the decline of LPR of 5 years and above is 15 basis points smaller than that of 1-year LPR. The LPR quotation of more than 5 years is the pricing benchmark for personal housing loans and medium and long-term loans for enterprises and institutions. The current property market continues to run at a low level and the demand for stable investment growth is high. It is necessary to significantly reduce the LPR quotation of more than 5 years. . The 1-year LPR quotation remains unchanged, which will help stabilize the bank's net interest margin, which is already at a historically low level, and make room for a significant reduction in the 5-year and above LPR quotation.\", 'authorid': UUID('58552b1d-85ea-5a5e-b5c5-73d3874f61f1'), 'sentimentScore': -0.20316299051046371, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '14J952FE7GQNU37SN8I3F6C4T7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:14:20 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '14J952FE7GQNU37SN8I3F6C4T7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('10602074-2ebf-578f-96fa-9273051bc90d'), 'title': 'Macro Research Weekly Report: The upward trend is expected to continue, and a good start may be expected', 'author': 'Xu Ying', 'orgName': '麦高证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80049237', 'orgSName': '麦高证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQMabM8Qnjdie5ftGvEFuEGk=', 'researcher': '徐滢', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000449878'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQMabM8Qnjdie5ftGvEFuEGk=', 'site': 'Mago Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '麦高证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622754126_1.pdf?1708608381000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622754126_1.pdf?1708608381000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Research Weekly Report: The upward trend is expected to continue, and a good start may be expected', 'originalAuthor': '徐滢', 'originalContent': '上周国内主要新闻：1.证监会：严历打击恶意做空等重大违法行为。2.证监会：防范股票质押风险，确保融资业务平稳运行。3.有力支持重大项目建设，地方债发行节奏料加快。4.北交所多项举措力促北交所公司质量提升。5.证监会：支持行业龙头企业高效并购优质资产6.2024年1月份居民消费价格环比上涨0.3%。上周国际主要新闻：1.研究显示美对华加征关税在经济上遭遇失败2.美国1月失业率维持在3.7%。3.通胀顽固利率高企，欧洲经济前景依旧低迷。4.经合组织上调今年全球经济增长预期至2.9%5.巴西欲借“新工业”计划助力经济转型。一周市场回顾：上周是春节前最后一周，沪深两市总体呈现先抑后扬、探底回升的走势，其中沪市在周一探出新低2635.09点之后，连续3个交易日大幅反弹，一举收复了2700点和2800点整数关口，收出了反弹的中阳线，其他主要指数也全部收涨，两市量能明显放大，北向资金4个交易日均呈现净流入，目前已连续3周呈现净流入的态势，主力资金流入迹象明显，对市场形成有力支撑。医药、消费、信息技术等行业重新活跃，金融行业等价值股有所回落。消息面上，此前市场连续下跌，证监会对融券机制进行了调整，进一步限制了做空机制，同时表示目前股票质押和融资融券业务风金可控，此举一定程度上抑制了做空能量，起到稳定资本市场，增强投资信心的作用。市场经过连续下跌，估值已处于历史低位，被称作“聪明资金”的北向资金大幅流入，为市场提供了更好的做多动能。春节休市期间，国家统计局发布了CPI等宏观经济数据，数据有所改善，尤其是在春节期间旅游和消费等行业受假期效应刺激，有望出现激增，经济数据反弹基础稳固。从周边股市表现来看，节前A股连续上涨，在赚钱效应的带动下，港股市场节后呈现三连阳的走势，而且在我国休市期间，外围股市表现也比较平稳，基于以上因素，预计节后A股市场有望延续前期的上涨趋势，开门红行情或可期。风险提示：政策不及预期，国际贸易政策风险，地缘政治冲突风险。', 'content': 'Main domestic news last week: 1. China Securities Regulatory Commission: Strictly crack down on malicious short selling and other major illegal activities. 2. China Securities Regulatory Commission: Prevent stock pledge risks and ensure the smooth operation of financing business. 3. Strong support for the construction of major projects, and the pace of local bond issuance is expected to accelerate. 4. The Beijing Stock Exchange has taken many measures to promote the quality improvement of Beijing Stock Exchange companies. 5. China Securities Regulatory Commission: Support industry leading companies to efficiently acquire high-quality assets. 6. In January 2024, consumer prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month. Major international news last week: 1. Research shows that the U.S.’s increased tariffs on China have failed economically. 2. The U.S. unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in January. 3. Inflation is stubborn, interest rates remain high, and the European economic outlook remains bleak. 4. The OECD has raised its global economic growth forecast for this year to 2.9%. 5. Brazil wants to use the \"new industry\" plan to help economic transformation. Weekly market review: Last week was the last week before the Spring Festival. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets generally showed a trend of first declining and then rising, bottoming out and rebounding. Among them, the Shanghai stock market rebounded sharply for three consecutive trading days after hitting a new low of 2635.09 points on Monday. It recovered the integer mark of 2700 points and 2800 points, and closed the rebounding Zhongyang line. All other major indexes also closed up. The volume of the two markets was significantly enlarged. Northbound funds showed net inflows for 4 trading days, and this has been the case for 3 consecutive weeks. The trend of net inflows and obvious signs of main capital inflows have provided strong support to the market. Industries such as medicine, consumption, and information technology have become active again, while value stocks such as the financial industry have retreated. In terms of news, after the market continued to fall, the China Securities Regulatory Commission made adjustments to the securities lending mechanism, further restricting the short-selling mechanism. At the same time, it stated that the risks of stock pledges and margin trading businesses are currently controllable. This move has suppressed the short-selling energy to a certain extent. It plays a role in stabilizing the capital market and enhancing investment confidence. After continuous declines in the market, valuations have reached historical lows. The large inflow of northbound funds known as \"smart money\" has provided the market with better long-term momentum. During the Spring Festival holiday, the National Bureau of Statistics released macroeconomic data such as CPI. The data has improved. Especially during the Spring Festival, tourism and consumption and other industries are stimulated by the holiday effect and are expected to surge. The rebound of economic data has a solid foundation. Judging from the performance of peripheral stock markets, A-shares continued to rise before the holiday. Driven by the money-making effect, the Hong Kong stock market showed a trend of three consecutive positives after the holiday. Moreover, during the holiday period in my country, the performance of peripheral stock markets was also relatively stable. Based on the above factors, it is expected that After the holiday, the A-share market is expected to continue its previous upward trend, and a good start may be expected. Risk warning: policies that fall short of expectations, international trade policy risks, and geopolitical conflict risks.', 'authorid': UUID('a7f043a0-c180-553f-9a30-81d8998aa3b6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8044315306469798, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'K3HOPRFL9FL5O0PQGTDTT41L1BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:14:23 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'K3HOPRFL9FL5O0PQGTDTT41L1BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('ae071256-193e-5166-93c6-8afe2075d1a5'), 'title': 'Comments on MLF operations in February 2024: MLF operating interest rates remained unchanged in February, and interest rate cuts are still in the policy toolbox', 'author': 'Wang Qing, Yan Jun, Feng Lin', 'orgName': '东方金诚', 'orgCode': '80117870', 'orgSName': '东方金诚', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQD0oQTCG8YxR7IfIGbPTeHE=', 'researcher': '王青,闫骏,冯琳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000265644', '11000415631', '11000282735'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQD0oQTCG8YxR7IfIGbPTeHE=', 'site': 'Oriental Jincheng', 'originalSite': '东方金诚', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622754093_1.pdf?1708608788000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622754093_1.pdf?1708608788000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on MLF operations in February 2024: MLF operating interest rates remained unchanged in February, and interest rate cuts are still in the policy toolbox', 'originalAuthor': '王青,闫骏,冯琳', 'originalContent': '事件：2024年2月18日，央行开展5000亿元MLF操作，本月MLF到期量为4990亿元；本月MLF操作利率为2.50%，上期为2.50%。一、2月MLF操作利率继续“按兵不动”，或与当月降准落地，有望带动LPR报价单独下调等因素有关。不过，当前物价水平偏低推高企业和居民实际贷款利率，宏观经济景气度有待改善，下调MLF操作利率仍是重要政策选项之一。伴随2月降准落地，近期市场对MLF操作利率下调的预期有所降温。我们预测，2月20日公布的LPR报价有可能单独下调，预计1年期和5年期以上LPR报价将分别下调5个基点。除本次降准会为银行每年节约资金成本120亿左右外，2023年11月、12月国内主要银行也下调了存款利率，这些措施都有助于推动LPR报价下行，并在一定程度上替代MLF利率下调，带动实体经济融资成本稳中有降。不过，主要受房地产行业下滑、消费需求不振等因素影响，2023年四季度以来官方制造业PMI指数持续运行在收缩区间。这意味着近期宏观经济运行稳中见弱，宏观政策实施逆周期调节的必要性上升。回顾历史可以看到，一旦官方制造业PMI指数连续3个月以上运行在收缩区间，货币政策做出反应的可能性就会显著加大，除降准外，下调政策利率也是常见的应对措施。另外，2024年2月CPI同比为-0.8%，降幅较上月扩大0.5个百分点，连续四个月同比负增长；当月PPI同比为-2.5%，降幅较上月收敛0.2个百分点，工业品价格继续处于较为明显的通缩状态。我们判断，伴随2月春节错月效应反���，CPI同比有望小幅回正，但短期内物价水平仍将处于低迷状态，上半年GDP平减指数同比将继续处于负值区间。这意味着未来一段时间物价水平和价格预期目标相比仍有距离，考虑物价因素的企业和居民实际贷款利率面临上升压力。由此，当前通过下调政策利率引导名义贷款利率较快下行，缓解实际利率上升压力的迫切性较高。需要指出的是，降准和银行存款利率下调带动的LPR报价下行幅度往往比较有限，或难以解决当前物价偏低、企业和居民实际贷款利率上升问题。综合当前经济和物价走势，我们判断短期内MLF利率下调的可能性仍然较大。首先，这将释放稳增长政策前置发力的清晰信号，提振市场信心，推动宏观经济稳中向上。其次，MLF利率下调会带动LPR报价联动调整，有效降低实体经济融资成本，并为地方债务风险化解提供更为有利的条件。最后，这将为引导居民房贷利率下行开拓空间，进而推动房地产行业尽快实现软着陆。我们认为，考虑到美联储等主要海外央行即将转入降息周期，今年汇率因素对我国央行降息的掣肘实际上要小于去年。二、2月MLF加量续作符合市场预期，也是稳增长政策持续发力的一个信号。2月MLF到期量为4990亿，当月操作规模达到5000亿，即当月实施小幅加量续作。首先，本月继续实施加量续作，符合市场预期。2024年一季度已进入稳增长关键阶段，MLF加量续作有助于增加银行体系中长期流动性，支持信贷增长以及政府、企业债券发行，同时也能鼓励银行等金融机构按照市场化、法治化原则，通过展期、借新还旧、置换等方式，积极参与地方债务风险化解。由此，尽管本月降准落地，释放资金规模超过1万亿，但考虑到1月信贷、社融均超预期，而且接下来政府债券发行有望提速，新增信贷还将处于较高水平，因此银行对MLF操作的需求增加。与此同时，MLF加量续作本身也在释放政策面加力稳增长的一个信号，体现货币政策总量发力。', 'content': 'Event: On February 18, 2024, the central bank launched an MLF operation of 500 billion yuan. The maturity amount of MLF this month was 499 billion yuan; the MLF operating interest rate this month was 2.50%, which was 2.50% in the previous period. 1. The MLF operating interest rate continued to be \"on hold\" in February, which may be related to factors such as the implementation of the required reserve ratio reduction that month, which is expected to lead to a separate reduction in LPR quotations. However, the current low price level has pushed up the actual loan interest rates of enterprises and residents, and the macroeconomic climate needs to be improved. Lowering the MLF operating interest rate is still one of the important policy options. With the implementation of the reserve requirement ratio reduction in February, the market\\'s recent expectations for a reduction in MLF operating interest rates have cooled down. We predict that the LPR quotations announced on February 20 may be individually lowered. It is expected that the quotations of LPR with a term of 1 year and above 5 years will be reduced by 5 basis points respectively. In addition to this RRR cut, which will save banks about 12 billion in capital costs every year, major domestic banks also lowered deposit interest rates in November and December 2023. These measures will help push the LPR quotation downward and replace it to a certain extent. The reduction in MLF interest rates has led to a steady decline in financing costs for the real economy. However, mainly due to factors such as the decline in the real estate industry and sluggish consumer demand, the official manufacturing PMI index has continued to run in the contraction range since the fourth quarter of 2023. This means that the recent macroeconomic performance has been stable but weakening, and the necessity of implementing countercyclical adjustments in macroeconomic policies has increased. Looking back at history, we can see that once the official manufacturing PMI index runs in the contraction range for more than three consecutive months, the possibility of monetary policy response will significantly increase. In addition to lowering the required reserve ratio, lowering the policy interest rate is also a common response. In addition, the CPI in February 2024 was -0.8% year-on-year, and the decline expanded by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with negative year-on-year growth for four consecutive months; the PPI in that month was -2.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Industrial product prices continued is in a relatively obvious state of deflation. We judge that with the reversal of the Lunar New Year effect in February, the CPI is expected to return slightly to positive year-on-year terms, but price levels will remain sluggish in the short term, and the GDP deflator will continue to be in the negative range year-on-year in the first half of the year. This means that there is still a gap between the price level and the expected price target in the future, and the actual loan interest rates of enterprises and residents who take price factors into consideration will face upward pressure. As a result, it is currently more urgent to lower the policy interest rate to guide the nominal loan interest rate to fall faster and alleviate the upward pressure on the real interest rate. It should be pointed out that the downward range of LPR quotations driven by RRR cuts and bank deposit interest rate cuts are often limited, and may be difficult to solve the current problems of low prices and rising actual loan interest rates for enterprises and residents. Based on the current economic and price trends, we judge that it is still more likely that the MLF interest rate will be lowered in the short term. First of all, this will send a clear signal that policies to stabilize growth will be implemented in advance, boost market confidence, and promote macroeconomic stability and upward momentum. Secondly, the reduction in MLF interest rates will lead to coordinated adjustments in LPR quotations, effectively reducing the financing costs of the real economy and providing more favorable conditions for resolving local debt risks. Finally, this will open up space to guide residents\\' mortgage interest rates downward, thereby promoting the real estate industry to achieve a soft landing as soon as possible. We believe that considering that major overseas central banks such as the Federal Reserve are about to enter an interest rate cutting cycle, the constraints imposed by exchange rate factors on my country\\'s central bank\\'s interest rate cuts will actually be smaller this year than last year. 2. The increase in MLF volume in February is in line with market expectations and is also a signal that the policy of stabilizing growth will continue to work hard. The maturity amount of MLF in February was 499 billion, and the operation scale of that month reached 500 billion, that is, a small increase in volume was implemented that month. First of all, we will continue to implement additional volume expansion this month, which is in line with market expectations. The first quarter of 2024 has entered a critical stage of stable growth. The additional MLF will help increase the medium- and long-term liquidity of the banking system, support credit growth and the issuance of government and corporate bonds, and also encourage banks and other financial institutions to follow marketization and the rule of law. We will actively participate in the resolution of local debt risks through extension, loan repayment, replacement, etc. As a result, although the RRR cut is implemented this month and the amount of funds released exceeds 1 trillion, considering that credit and social financing in January exceeded expectations, and government bond issuance is expected to accelerate in the future, new credit will still be at a relatively high level. Therefore, banks\\' demand for MLF operations increases. At the same time, the MLF volume increase sequel itself is also releasing a signal that the policy side will increase efforts to stabilize growth, reflecting the overall strength of monetary policy.', 'authorid': UUID('e8ebec48-14e9-5248-b6d4-7e5cc8a6af9b'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7051326334476471, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'SDU7SBDCK8GQUBS8B5A6CC3N8JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:14:25 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'SDU7SBDCK8GQUBS8B5A6CC3N8JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a3005bfb-7bef-555f-8c85-23f4951c4c5f'), 'title': 'International data tracking: U.S. prices rose more than expected, and the market expected an interest rate cut to be postponed', 'author': 'Xu Jingya,Cao Shiqi', 'orgName': '南京证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000051', 'orgSName': '南京证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQA3Nf1wGPXCAn0s59Zzt1eM=', 'researcher': '徐静雅,曹世棋', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000411231', '11000442938'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=oZrs6JaLKr9SnpZfxbMsQA3Nf1wGPXCAn0s59Zzt1eM=', 'site': 'Nanjing Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '南京证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622754062_1.pdf?1708608592000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402221622754062_1.pdf?1708608592000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'International data tracking: U.S. prices rose more than expected, and the market expected an interest rate cut to be postponed', 'originalAuthor': '徐静雅,曹世棋', 'originalContent': '摘要美国零售销售额出��锐降：美国1月零售销售总额同比增速达0.65%，较前值5.31%陡降了4.66pct，创下44个月以来的最低记录；核心零售销售总额同比增速为1.19%，大幅回落3.19pct。环比来看，零售销售增速远远不及预期，1月季调环比增速为-0.83%，低于预期-0.1%。零售数据显著走弱一方面受到同比基数走强的作用，剔除基数效应之后的跌幅明显收窄。而且居民的消费热情提前释放在了前期三四季度，相对减弱了当前居民消费动力。另一方面加上环比数据的参考，反映了新年伊始美国居民消费支出的边际下滑。在超储不断被消耗的背景下，高利率环境的限制性作用逐渐凸显，经济出现降温的迹象。从分项来看，形成拖累的主要是耐用品领域，如汽车、家电、建材等。美国物价环比超预期攀升：美国1月CPI当月同比增加3.1%，超出预期水平2.9%，增速较上月减少0.3pct；核心CPI当月同比达3.9%，高于预期3.7%，与前值持平。环比来看，CPI季调环比为0.3%，高于预期0.2%；核心CPI季调环比为0.4%，超过预期0.3%。1月CPI下行、核心CPI维稳的走势与我们此前的判断相一致，但超出了市场预期，尤其是环比超预期抬升，主要来自服务价格的上涨。周二公布的CPI高于预期、周五公布的PPI环比大超预期的上涨，引发了通胀横盘滞留在相对高位更久的担忧，市场降息预期快速转变，预期的首次降息日期推迟至今年6月，全年降息幅度缩小至100bp，美债大幅上行，美股下跌，美元逆势翻盘，周二一度上冲至104.86的高位，美国经济硬着陆风险再度被热议。风险提示：美国经济韧性超预期，地缘政治风险，通胀反弹风险，金融部门流动性风险。', 'content': 'Summary U.S. retail sales fell sharply: U.S. total retail sales in January grew by 0.65% year-on-year, a sharp drop of 4.66pct from the previous value of 5.31%, setting a 44-month low; core retail sales grew by 0.65% year-on-year. 1.19%, a sharp drop of 3.19pct. On a month-on-month basis, retail sales growth was far lower than expected. The seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth rate in January was -0.83%, lower than expected -0.1%. On the one hand, the significant weakening of retail sales data was affected by the strengthening of the year-on-year base. The decline after excluding the base effect narrowed significantly. Moreover, residents’ consumption enthusiasm was released in advance in the third and fourth quarters, which relatively weakened the current consumption motivation of residents. On the other hand, coupled with the reference to month-on-month data, it reflects the marginal decline in U.S. consumer spending at the beginning of the new year. Against the backdrop of continued depletion of excess reserves, the restrictive role of the high interest rate environment has gradually come to the fore, and the economy is showing signs of cooling. From a sub-item perspective, the main drag is in the field of durable goods, such as automobiles, home appliances, building materials, etc. U.S. prices rose more than expected month-on-month: U.S. CPI in January increased by 3.1% year-on-year, 2.9% higher than expected, and the growth rate decreased by 0.3pct from the previous month; core CPI reached 3.9% year-on-year, 3.7% higher than expected, and the same as the previous value . On a month-on-month basis, the CPI seasonally adjusted was 0.3%, 0.2% higher than expected; the core CPI seasonally adjusted was 0.4%, 0.3% higher than expected. The downward trend of CPI and the stabilization of core CPI in January were consistent with our previous judgment, but exceeded market expectations, especially the month-on-month higher than expected increase, which was mainly due to the increase in service prices. The CPI released on Tuesday was higher than expected, and the PPI released on Friday was higher than expected on a month-on-month basis, raising concerns that inflation will remain at a relatively high level for a longer period of time. Market expectations for interest rate cuts have rapidly changed, and the expected date of the first interest rate cut has been postponed to June this year. , the full-year interest rate cut was reduced to 100bp, U.S. bonds rose sharply, U.S. stocks fell, and the U.S. dollar bucked the trend. It once surged to a high of 104.86 on Tuesday, and the risk of a hard landing for the U.S. economy was once again hotly debated. Risk warning: The resilience of the U.S. economy exceeds expectations, geopolitical risks, inflation rebound risks, and financial sector liquidity risks.', 'authorid': UUID('b2efc2af-3d99-51ba-8361-3770c0b4d165'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9619284672662616, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'HT4A126OTTQFHQHAO6HL817U5RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:14:28 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'HT4A126OTTQFHQHAO6HL817U5RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0abd74c4-4d24-5005-a217-2048b33c58c6'), 'title': 'Comments on the 5-year LPR cut in February 2024: The 5-year LPR cut will not change the tailwind environment of the bond market', 'author': 'Guo Rui', 'orgName': '山西证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000080', 'orgSName': '山西证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-22', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZM4jA6guHytexvEGFdgO8pg=', 'researcher': '郭瑞', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000179017'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZM4jA6guHytexvEGFdgO8pg=', 'site': 'Shanxi Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '山西证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622476286_1.pdf?1708613430000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622476286_1.pdf?1708613430000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on the 5-year LPR cut in February 2024: The 5-year LPR cut will not change the tailwind environment of the bond market', 'originalAuthor': '郭瑞', 'originalContent': '核心观点事件：2024年2月20日，央行公布新一期LPR，其中1年期和5年期以上LPR分别为3.45%（前值3.45%）和3.95%（前值4.20%）。这也是继2022年5月后，第二次5年期LPR的单独调降。此次调降时间未超市场预期，但25bp的调降幅度超出市场预期。5年期LPR降幅超预期显示政策层面提振经济和稳定预期的信心。2023年四季度以来，我国总需求持续偏弱，房地产市场持续调整，财政政策发力效果显现较慢，通胀持续低位徘徊。央行在2023年四季度货币政策执行报告中也指出当前我国经济依然面临“社会预期依然偏弱”“需求不足与产能过剩的矛盾较为突出”等问题。2月18日国务院第三次全体会议再次强调“多做有利于提振信心和预期的事，保持政策制定和执行的一致性稳定性”。此次5年期LPR大幅度调降显示政府“奋力抢抓工作先机”的决策部署。货币政策依然稳健偏松。央行四季度货币政策执行报告强调货币政策工具的运用依然“要保持银行体系流动性合理充裕和货币市场利率平稳运行”，并通过多种方式“保持融资和货币总量合理增长”。货币政策稳健偏松基调未变，提振经济大方向下，LPR利率调降后MLF利率依然有较强的调降预期。货币政策节奏安排或进入新阶段。在“推动社会综合融资成本稳中有降”的目标下，央行对货币信用的传导效率问题关注度明显提升，从畅通货币政策传导渠道的角度提出“落实存款利率市场化调整机制”“理顺贷款利率与债券收益率等市场利率的关系”，从宽信用角度提出“合理把握债券与信贷两个最大融资市场的关系”“促进贷款合理增长，加强信贷均衡投放”“着力提升贷款使用效率”等。此次LPR单边下调主要得益于2023年12月商业银行存款利率的下调降低了银行负债成本。金融传导效率的提升虽不影响货币政策稳健偏松的方向，但可能对近期及中期货币政策节奏带来扰动。市场启示：5年期LPR调降不改收益率下行趋势。1月PMI及通胀数据显示经济动能依然偏弱，且当前经济偏弱原因不仅源于需求端，也在于供给快于需求，导致价格低位波动。5年期LPR超预期调降显示政策层面稳定需求和预期的信心。货币政策稳健偏松基调未变，5年期LPR利率调降后MLF利率依然有较强的调降预期。上半年债市顺风环境未变，但需要考虑金融传导效率的提升和央行关注的信贷结构优化对货币政策节奏带来扰动。风险提示：国内外宏观环境超预期变化；稳增长政策力度超预期；地缘政治风险加剧。', 'content': 'Core viewpoint event: On February 20, 2024, the central bank announced a new period of LPR, in which the 1-year and 5-year and above LPRs were 3.45% (previous value 3.45%) and 3.95% (previous value 4.20%) respectively. This is also the second separate reduction of the 5-year LPR after May 2022. The timing of this reduction did not exceed market expectations, but the magnitude of the 25bp reduction exceeded market expectations. The larger-than-expected decline in the 5-year LPR shows the policy level\\'s confidence in boosting the economy and stabilizing expectations. Since the fourth quarter of 2023, my country\\'s total demand has continued to be weak, the real estate market has continued to adjust, the effects of fiscal policy have been slow to show, and inflation continues to hover at low levels. The central bank also pointed out in its monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2023 that my country\\'s economy still faces problems such as \"social expectations are still weak\" and \"the contradiction between insufficient demand and overcapacity is more prominent\". The Third Plenary Session of the State Council on February 18 once again emphasized “do more things that are conducive to boosting confidence and expectations, and maintain consistency and stability in policy formulation and implementation.” The significant reduction in the 5-year LPR reflects the government’s decision-making and deployment of “striving to seize work opportunities.” Monetary policy remains prudent but loose. The central bank\\'s fourth quarter monetary policy execution report emphasized that the use of monetary policy tools still \"should maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system and the smooth operation of money market interest rates\", and \"maintain reasonable growth in financing and monetary aggregates\" through various methods. The tone of prudent and loose monetary policy has not changed. Under the general direction of boosting the economy, there are still strong expectations for a reduction in MLF interest rates after the LPR interest rate reduction. The pace of monetary policy may enter a new stage. Under the goal of \"promoting social comprehensive financing costs to stabilize while decreasing\", the central bank has paid significantly more attention to the transmission efficiency of monetary credit. From the perspective of smoothing the monetary policy transmission channel, it has proposed \"implementing the market-based adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates\" and \"straightening out the \"The relationship between loan interest rates and market interest rates such as bond yields\", and from a wide credit perspective, it is proposed to \"reasonably grasp the relationship between the two largest financing markets of bonds and credit\", \"promote reasonable growth of loans and strengthen balanced credit extension\" and \"strive to improve the efficiency of loan use\" wait. This unilateral reduction in LPR is mainly due to the reduction in commercial bank deposit interest rates in December 2023, which has reduced bank liability costs. Although the improvement in financial transmission efficiency will not affect the steady and loose direction of monetary policy, it may cause disturbances to the pace of monetary policy in the near and medium term. Market Enlightenment: The 5-year LPR cut does not change the downward trend in yields. January PMI and inflation data show that economic momentum is still weak, and the current weak economy is not only due to the demand side, but also because supply is faster than demand, resulting in low price fluctuations. The unexpected reduction of the 5-year LPR shows the confidence of stable demand and expectations at the policy level. The tone of prudent and loose monetary policy has not changed, and there are still strong expectations for a reduction in the MLF interest rate after the 5-year LPR interest rate was reduced. The tailwind environment for the bond market has not changed in the first half of the year, but it is necessary to consider the disruption to the pace of monetary policy caused by the improvement of financial transmission efficiency and the optimization of the credit structure that the central bank is concerned about. Risk warning: Domestic and foreign macro-environments have changed more than expected; policies to stabilize growth have been stronger than expected; geopolitical risks have intensified.', 'authorid': UUID('e521f4b9-7006-505f-b080-07c6b67b7ccf'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7887614518404007, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '4CERGGTT254VTJL8QPRIJG76J7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:14:31 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '4CERGGTT254VTJL8QPRIJG76J7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "IncompleteRead(31794 bytes read, 13958 more expected)\n", - "{'id': UUID('83aa99d2-5892-5fee-bd0b-9f0af04cef77'), 'title': 'Summary of various measures to stabilize the economy since this year', 'author': 'Mao Lei, Wang Xiao', 'orgName': '国泰期货', 'orgCode': '80101065', 'orgSName': '国泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZGvwTSsehus+7P+qveQKIYA=', 'researcher': '毛磊,王笑', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000218765', '11000259151'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZGvwTSsehus+7P+qveQKIYA=', 'site': 'Cathay Futures', 'originalSite': '国泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622523002_1.pdf?1708549560000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622523002_1.pdf?1708549560000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Summary of various measures to stabilize the economy since this year', 'originalAuthor': '毛磊,王笑', 'originalContent': '开年以来，一系列稳经济政策组合拳持续落地，主要涉及在货币��策与房地产政策领域。其中，总量型货币政策自开年以来加码，包括降准、降息均出现。而上一轮货币政策密集发力期还是在2023年年中前后。房地产方面，政策重点在于房企融资端的救助，如建立房地产融资协调机制，金融机构“房地产白名单”的落地；以及需求端的托底，包括一线热点城市购房政策的优化放松，以及5年期LPR降幅超预期。2月21日，金融、地产板块合力大涨，或与一系列稳楼市政策效果显现有关。此外，我们还整理了包括财政、人民币汇率、中美关系等方面的政策。目前距离“两会”召开已不到两周时间，在当前政策持续维稳的环境下，市场对于利多政策的预期或至少持续到“两会”靴子落地。', 'content': 'Since the beginning of the year, a series of policy packages to stabilize the economy have continued to be implemented, mainly involving the fields of monetary policy and real estate policy. Among them, aggregate monetary policy has been stepped up since the beginning of the year, including RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. The last round of intensive monetary policy was around mid-2023. In terms of real estate, the policy focus is on the rescue of the financing side of real estate companies, such as the establishment of a real estate financing coordination mechanism and the implementation of the \"real estate white list\" of financial institutions; as well as the support of the demand side, including the optimization and relaxation of home purchase policies in first-tier hotspot cities, and the 5-year LPR The decline was larger than expected. On February 21, the financial and real estate sectors jointly rose sharply, which may be related to the effectiveness of a series of policies to stabilize the property market. In addition, we also sorted out policies including finance, RMB exchange rate, Sino-US relations, etc. It has been less than two weeks since the \"Two Sessions\" were held. In the current environment where policies continue to maintain stability, the market\\'s expectations for bullish policies may continue until at least the \"Two Sessions\" are implemented.', 'authorid': UUID('51f5be69-13d4-5cb3-b380-3e320a6f4d81'), 'sentimentScore': 0.1781557071954012, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'I3AFIFQSLSNDBOMKB2R4KM3EU7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:08 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'I3AFIFQSLSNDBOMKB2R4KM3EU7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f59e7f62-471d-57a3-b127-f407e11a3599'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the structure of U.S. CPI data in January', 'author': 'Zhaoyue', 'orgName': '致富证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80102269', 'orgSName': '致富证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZIdC9fmrb2ru1MqIZHtN1/E=', 'researcher': '肇越', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000319632'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZIdC9fmrb2ru1MqIZHtN1/E=', 'site': 'CHIEF SECURITIES LIMITED', 'originalSite': '致富证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622506962_1.pdf?1708534182000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622506962_1.pdf?1708534182000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the structure of U.S. CPI data in January', 'originalAuthor': '肇越', 'originalContent': '内容概要：1、今年一月美国CPI同比涨幅高于市场预期均值，但是实际上低于上个月的同比涨幅。2、对于CPI涨幅贡献最大的是两项：房租和业主等价租金、机动车保费。3、房租和业主等价租金这一项，由于统计的原因严重地滞后于市场变化，反应的并不是当期房地产租赁市场的价格变化情况，美国住宅租金涨幅在2022年2月达到峰值之后，已经回调接近24个月。4、一月份美国机动车保费的变化主要受到前一年度机动车维修费用上升的影响。', 'content': 'Summary of content: 1. The year-on-year increase in U.S. CPI in January this year was higher than the average market expectation, but it was actually lower than the year-on-year increase last month. 2. The two items that contributed the most to the increase in CPI are: house rent and owner’s equivalent rent, and motor vehicle insurance premiums. 3. Rent and owner-equivalent rent seriously lag behind market changes due to statistical reasons. They do not reflect the price changes in the current real estate rental market. After the increase in U.S. residential rents reached its peak in February 2022, it has The pullback is approaching 24 months. 4. Changes in U.S. motor vehicle insurance premiums in January were mainly affected by the increase in motor vehicle maintenance costs in the previous year.', 'authorid': UUID('bd4b1eb2-e6f0-5211-9682-a3f7576d1e12'), 'sentimentScore': -0.13398458063602448, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'H0RS6085S9NH513LFT7H5B01JNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:11 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'H0RS6085S9NH513LFT7H5B01JNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('59f55a3f-d82f-5289-8896-ce2b49d2b81b'), 'title': \"China's economic data in February 2024 is expected by the market in advance: economic expectations are weak and there is still no expectation of deflation\", 'author': 'Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli', 'orgName': '上海证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000155', 'orgSName': '上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZP+EVnyd0VsBElOSKJIzEpg=', 'researcher': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172617', '11000235839'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZP+EVnyd0VsBElOSKJIzEpg=', 'site': 'Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '上海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622498960_1.pdf?1708528059000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622498960_1.pdf?1708528059000.pdf', 'originalTitle': \"China's economic data in February 2024 is expected by the market in advance: economic expectations are weak and there is still no expectation of deflation\", 'originalAuthor': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'originalContent': '主要观点2024年2月份经济数据公布将恢复常态，为消除春节因素影响，部分数据为1-2月合计。本次市场提前POLL（1月份数据未公布前进行的2024年2份中国经济数据预测）表明，市场整体虽然对经济短期前景运行的预期偏弱，但并没有形成通缩预期，货币预期增长延续平稳。通缩预期仍未出现虽然12月份CPI和PPI延续“双负”状态，且程度加深，但市场主流预期并没有形成通缩深化的预期：2024年2月份CPI同比增速（%）预测分布区间为（-0.5,1.3），预期的中值和均值均为0.4，表明消费价格回升是市场主流预期，但机构间分歧较大；主流预期认为PPI同比增速保持平稳。我们一直认为，受基数效应影响，未来CPI同比数据或持续处于低位运行状态，PPI则延续降幅缓慢收窄态势。1月份真实物价数据公布后，市场整体对物价运行基准水平应有下移，但运行趋势（平稳中缓回升）预期应保持不变。我们认为，中国消费价格有着较为明显的季节性波动规律，从环比价格变动看，中国物价运行并未陷入通缩态势，受基数效应影响，1月CPI同比降幅有所扩大，但并不意味着通缩态势形成，价格运行比较平稳；工业品价格受大宗商品价格低迷影响，延续低迷态势。经济偏软中货币增长预期保持平稳对工业、投资和消费的增速预期中值显示，市场整体认为经济仍将维持稳中偏软态势；虽然对经济短期运行前景预期维持偏软，但并不认为货币政策会因此而有进一步放松，从市场预期的中值和均值看，平稳继续成为货币增长的市场主流预期。我们仍然认为，经济平稳中的通胀下行走势，或带来货币增速的后撤；价格运行稳中偏低的态势，也为宽松货币政策创造了空间，预计1-2Q内调降回购利率5BP的降息举措或有发生、2-3Q内降准25BP也是大概率事件。随着中国经济运行的国内外环境改变，推动融资成本下行的降准、降息等政策工具仍将延续。综合来看，我们认为，在政策激励和经济韧性影响下，中国经济运行平稳态势不变，随着政策效应逐渐呈现，2024年中国经济和资本市场运行或将演绎双回暖格局。我们认为，未来“宏观平稳、微观改善”的宏观运行趋势，将为资本市场的走稳回暖奠定坚实基础。风险提示俄乌冲突扩大化，国际金融形势改变；中国通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。', 'content': 'The main point is that the economic data released in February 2024 will return to normal. In order to eliminate the impact of the Spring Festival, some data are the total from January to February. The market\\'s advance POLL (two Chinese economic data forecasts for 2024 conducted before the January data was released) shows that although the market as a whole has weak expectations for the short-term economic prospects, it has not formed deflation expectations, and the expected growth of currency continues to be stable. . Deflation expectations have not yet appeared. Although CPI and PPI continued to be \"double negative\" in December and deepened, the mainstream market expectations did not form expectations of deepening deflation: the forecast distribution range of CPI year-on-year growth rate (%) in February 2024 is ( -0.5, 1.3), the expected median and mean values \\u200b\\u200bare both 0.4, indicating that a rebound in consumer prices is the mainstream expectation of the market, but there are large differences among institutions; the mainstream expectation is that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will remain stable. We have always believed that due to the base effect, future CPI year-on-year data may continue to be at a low level, while PPI will continue to decline and slowly narrow. After the release of real price data in January, the market as a whole should have downward expectations for the benchmark level of price operations, but expectations for the operating trend (stable and moderate recovery) should remain unchanged. We believe that China\\'s consumer prices have relatively obvious seasonal fluctuations. Judging from month-on-month price changes, China\\'s price movement has not fallen into a deflationary trend. Affected by the base effect, the year-on-year decline in CPI in January has expanded, but it does not mean deflation. A trend has been formed, and prices have been relatively stable; industrial product prices have been affected by the downturn in commodity prices and have continued to remain depressed. Monetary growth is expected to remain stable amid a soft economy. The median growth expectations for industry, investment and consumption show that the market as a whole believes that the economy will remain stable but moderately soft; although expectations for the short-term economic outlook remain soft, it does not It is believed that monetary policy will be further relaxed as a result. Judging from the median and average market expectations, stability will continue to be the mainstream market expectation for currency growth. We still believe that the downward trend of inflation in a stable economy may bring about a retreat in monetary growth; the stable and low price trend also creates space for loose monetary policy, and it is expected that the repurchase rate will be lowered in 1-2Q. A 5BP interest rate cut may occur, and a 25BP RRR cut within 2-3Q is also a high probability event. As the domestic and international environment for China\\'s economic operation changes, policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts that promote downward financing costs will continue. Taken together, we believe that under the influence of policy incentives and economic resilience, China\\'s economic operation will remain stable. As the policy effects gradually emerge, China\\'s economy and capital market operations may perform a double recovery pattern in 2024. We believe that the future macro operation trend of \"macro stability and micro improvement\" will lay a solid foundation for the stabilization and recovery of the capital market. Risks include the expansion of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and changes in the international financial situation; China\\'s inflation has risen beyond expectations, and China\\'s monetary policy has changed beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('23836b0d-75e0-5a50-a109-862fde53e3bf'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9069429151713848, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '7DFI6OO6RE6ID3LPC5A0H7U5OBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:15 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '7DFI6OO6RE6ID3LPC5A0H7U5OBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2fd328c0-3016-5482-a840-beaf2a022267'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Research Weekly: Domestic financial data performed well in January, and U.S. CPI exceeded expectations', 'author': 'Ye Bin', 'orgName': '财信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000140', 'orgSName': '财信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZGJT4En3bAuInws5Rf/5rQw=', 'researcher': '叶彬', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000370137'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZGJT4En3bAuInws5Rf/5rQw=', 'site': 'Caixin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '财信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622498959_1.pdf?1708528429000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622498959_1.pdf?1708528429000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Research Weekly: Domestic financial data performed well in January, and U.S. CPI exceeded expectations', 'originalAuthor': '叶彬', 'originalContent': '本周观点：国内方面，1月CPI和PPI数据出炉。1月份CPI环比上涨0.3%，同比下降0.8%，降幅较上月扩大0.5个百分点。食品价格环比弱于历史同期，叠加春节错月因素影响，共同导致CPI增速回落；核心CPI继续处于“0”时代，反映出国内需求依然不足。PPI环���下降0.2%，同比下降2.5%，降幅较上月收窄0.2个百分点。受去年同期基数走低和国际大宗商品价格波动回升影响，1月PPI同比和环比降幅均有所收窄，但国内部分行业进入传统生产淡季，PPI环比继续负增长。1月金融数据总体实现开门红。1月M2同比8.7%，前值9.7%，M1同比5.9%，前值1.3%。新增人民币贷款4.92万亿元，同比多增162亿元。社会融资规模增量6.5万亿元，同比多增5061亿元。社融存量增速为9.5%，前值9.5%。其中，1月份M1同比改善明显的主因是春节错位导致部分用于奖金的企业活期存款并未转换成居民存款，同时增发国债也有一定带动作用；社融在数量和结构上均有一定改善，消费贷冲量、二手房销售偏强、PSL等“三大工程”配套融资落地可能是主要拉动原因。海外方面，根据美国劳工统计局2月13日发布的数据显示，美国1月CPI同比增长3.1%，高于2.9%的市场预期，前值为3.4%；1月核心CPI同比增长3.9%，略高于3.7%的市场预期，前值为3.9%；1月CPI环比增长0.3%，略高于0.2%的市场预期，前值为0.2%；1月核心CPI环比增长0.4%，略高于0.3%的市场预期，前值为0.3%。通胀数据公布后，当天美国国债利率上行，三大股指下行，市场调低降息预期。另外，美国经济数据表现强劲，美国1月ISM制造业PMI为49.1%，高于预期值47.0%、前值47.1%、过去12个月均值47.2%，较有韧性的经济表现也降低了市场对美联储近期降息的预期。据CME“美联储观察”最新数据，3月维持利率不变的概率有所提升。国内热点：一、中共中央、国务院2月8日上午在人民大会堂举行2024年春节团拜会。二、1月份CPI环比上涨0.3%。三、1月份PPI同比降幅收窄。四、1月金融统计数据报告。国际热点：一、美国政府的偿债成本明年将达到创纪录高位。二、日本央行：即使结束负利率政策，不会积极加息。三、美国1月CPI同比上涨3.1%超预期。上周高频数据跟踪：2月5日至2月8日，上证指数上涨4.97%，收报2865.90点；沪深300指数上涨5.83%，收报3364.93点；创业板指上涨11.38%，收报1726.86点。风险提示：国内政策超预期；欧美经济衰退风险加剧。', 'content': 'This week’s perspective: On the domestic front, January CPI and PPI data are released. In January, CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and decreased by 0.8% year-on-year. The decline expanded by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Food prices were weaker than the same period in history on a month-on-month basis, coupled with the impact of the Spring Festival being held in the wrong month, which jointly caused the CPI growth rate to fall; the core CPI continued to be in the \"0\" era, reflecting that domestic demand is still insufficient. PPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Affected by the lower base number in the same period last year and the rebound in international commodity price fluctuations, the year-on-year and month-on-month declines in PPI in January narrowed. However, some domestic industries entered the traditional production off-season, and PPI continued to grow negative month-on-month. January’s financial data generally got off to a good start. M2 in January was 8.7% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 9.7%, and M1 was 5.9% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 1.3%. New RMB loans increased by 4.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.2 billion yuan year-on-year. The scale of social financing increased by 6.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 506.1 billion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of social financing stock was 9.5%, compared with the previous value of 9.5%. Among them, the main reason for the obvious year-on-year improvement in M1 in January was that the Spring Festival misalignment caused some corporate demand deposits used for bonuses not to be converted into resident deposits. At the same time, the additional issuance of government bonds also had a certain driving effect; social financing has improved in both quantity and structure, and consumption Loan momentum, strong second-hand housing sales, and the implementation of supporting financing for the \"three major projects\" such as PSL may be the main driving factors. Overseas, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on February 13, the U.S. CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year in January, higher than the market expectation of 2.9%, and the previous value was 3.4%; the core CPI in January increased by 3.9% year-on-year, slightly Higher than the market expectation of 3.7%, the previous value was 3.9%; January CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, slightly higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, the previous value was 0.2%; January core CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, slightly higher than 0.3 % of market expectations, the previous value was 0.3%. After the inflation data was released, U.S. Treasury bond interest rates rose that day, the three major stock indexes fell, and the market lowered expectations for interest rate cuts. In addition, U.S. economic data performed strongly. The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in January was 49.1%, higher than the expected value of 47.0%, the previous value of 47.1%, and the average of the past 12 months of 47.2%. The more resilient economic performance also reduced market expectations. Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near future. According to the latest data from CME\\'s \"Fed Watch\", the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in March has increased. Domestic hot topics: 1. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council held a 2024 Spring Festival group meeting at the Great Hall of the People on the morning of February 8. 2. CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month in January. 3. The year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed in January. 4. January financial statistics report. International hot topics: 1. The U.S. government’s debt service costs will reach a record high next year. 2. The Bank of Japan: Even if it ends the negative interest rate policy, it will not actively raise interest rates. 3. The U.S. CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year in January, exceeding expectations. High-frequency data tracking last week: From February 5 to February 8, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.97% to close at 2865.90 points; the CSI 300 Index rose 5.83% to close at 3364.93 points; the ChiNext Index rose 11.38% to close at 1726.86 points. Risk warning: Domestic policies have exceeded expectations; the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States has intensified.', 'authorid': UUID('4fda87f7-a5e2-53ab-b6c5-0b61d8c5eaae'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9416918735951185, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TJ999QU1RA8O23T5VQOAS0Q467VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:17 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TJ999QU1RA8O23T5VQOAS0Q467VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('274e58ce-e010-5624-a1fc-a41fe1289fbf'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Research Weekly Report: Domestic PMI rebounded in January, US non-agricultural data exceeded expectations', 'author': 'Ye Bin', 'orgName': '财信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000140', 'orgSName': '财信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZJ89LU6hfsL8fNatdnWqIvs=', 'researcher': '叶彬', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000370137'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZJ89LU6hfsL8fNatdnWqIvs=', 'site': 'Caixin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '财信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622498958_1.pdf?1708528429000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622498958_1.pdf?1708528429000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Research Weekly Report: Domestic PMI rebounded in January, US non-agricultural data exceeded expectations', 'originalAuthor': '叶彬', 'originalContent': '本周观点：国内方面，受政策加力稳增长、春节前消费品制造业产销加快等因素影响，经济景气水平有所回升，1月制造业PMI为49.2%，环比上升0.2个百分点，结束连续3个月下降势头。但是受房地产市场低迷、市场预期改善有限等因素制约，国内需求不足对经济增速有一定制约，制造业PMI连续4个月处于收缩区间，经济恢复基础仍需继续巩固。从供给指标来看，1月生产指数为51.3%，较上月提高1.1个百分点，生产扩张有所加快，原因主要有二：一是临近春节，企业加快生产备货；二是万亿国债加快发行使用对基建项目施工形成支撑，对部分工业生产形成有力带动。从需求指标来看，1月新订单指数为49.0%，高于上月0.3个百分点，但是连续4个月位于收缩区间，国内需求不足仍是主要拖累因素，不过因海外需求有所恢复，新订单指数边际改善。预计未来一段时间，随着稳增长政策发力及万亿国债逐步形成工作量，国内制造业PMI有持续改善预期，3月份或重回扩张区间。海外方面，1月份非农就业人数增长35.3万，失业率维持在3.7%，薪资水平环比加速增长，创下2022年3月以来最大升幅。美国新增非农就业人数创下一年来最高水平，薪资增速超过预期，这可能促使美联储推迟降息，美债收益率也随之走高。同时，美联储决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在5.25%至5.5%。此外委员会预计，在对通胀率持续迈向2%更有信心之前，不宜降低目标区间。预计未来一段时间，随着通胀水平企稳，美联储加息周期已基本接近尾声，但降息周期开启或仍需���待。一是从近期数据来看，美国经济形势表现较好，增速可能放缓，但衰退可能性比较小；二是离2%的通胀目标还有一定差距，即便达到目标也要巩固。据CME“美联储观察”：美联储3月维持利率在5.25%-5.50%区间不变的概率为62%，降息25个基点的概率为38%。到5月维持利率不变的概率为6.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为59.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为34.2%。国内热点：一、2024年1月制造业PMI为49.2%。二、2023年全国一般公共预算收入同比增长6.4%。三、中共中央政治局就扎实推进高质量发展进行第十一次集体学习。四、工信部等七部门联合印发《关于推动未来产业创新发展的实施意见》。国际热点：一、美国1月新增非农就业人数创一年来新高。二、美联储决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在5.25%至5.5%。上周高频数据跟踪：1月29日至2月2日，上证指数下跌6.19%，收报2730.15点；沪深300指数下跌4.63%，收报3179.63点；创业板指下跌7.85%，收报1550.37点。风险提示：国内政策超预期；欧美经济衰退风险加剧。', 'content': 'This week’s view: On the domestic front, affected by factors such as policies to stabilize growth and the acceleration of production and sales of consumer goods manufacturing before the Spring Festival, the economic boom level has rebounded. The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, ending three consecutive years. monthly downward trend. However, restricted by factors such as the downturn in the real estate market and limited improvement in market expectations, insufficient domestic demand has certain constraints on economic growth. The manufacturing PMI has been in the contraction range for four consecutive months, and the foundation for economic recovery still needs to continue to be consolidated. From the perspective of supply indicators, the production index in January was 51.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. Production expansion has accelerated. There are two main reasons: first, as the Spring Festival approaches, companies speed up production and stocking; second, the issuance of trillions of government bonds is accelerated. Its use supports the construction of infrastructure projects and strongly promotes some industrial production. From the perspective of demand indicators, the new orders index in January was 49.0%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous month, but it has been in the contraction range for four consecutive months. Insufficient domestic demand is still the main drag factor. However, due to the recovery of overseas demand, new orders Marginal improvement in order index. It is expected that in the coming period, with the implementation of stabilizing growth policies and the gradual formation of trillions in national debt, the domestic manufacturing PMI is expected to continue to improve, and may return to the expansion range in March. Overseas, non-agricultural employment increased by 353,000 in January, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, and wages accelerated month-on-month, recording the largest increase since March 2022. The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States hit the highest level in a year, and wage growth exceeded expectations, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to delay cutting interest rates, and U.S. bond yields will also rise. At the same time, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. In addition, the Committee predicts that it will not be appropriate to lower the target range until it is more confident that inflation will continue to move towards 2%. It is expected that in the coming period, as inflation levels stabilize, the Fed\\'s interest rate hike cycle is basically coming to an end, but the start of the interest rate cut cycle may still have to wait. First, judging from recent data, the U.S. economic situation is performing well, and the growth rate may slow down, but the possibility of recession is relatively small; second, there is still a certain gap from the 2% inflation target, and even if the target is reached, it must be consolidated. According to CME\\'s \"Fed Watch\": the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 62%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 38%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by May is 6.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 59.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 34.2%. Domestic hot spots: 1. The manufacturing PMI in January 2024 was 49.2%. 2. In 2023, the national general public budget revenue will increase by 6.4% year-on-year. 3. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee conducted its 11th collective study session on solidly promoting high-quality development. 4. Seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the \"Implementation Opinions on Promoting Future Industrial Innovation and Development.\" International hot spots: 1. The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States hit a one-year high in January. 2. The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. High-frequency data tracking last week: From January 29 to February 2, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 6.19% to close at 2730.15 points; the CSI 300 Index fell 4.63% to close at 3179.63 points; the ChiNext Index fell 7.85% to close at 1550.37 points. Risk warning: Domestic policies have exceeded expectations; the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States has intensified.', 'authorid': UUID('4fda87f7-a5e2-53ab-b6c5-0b61d8c5eaae'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6480698436498642, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'VH02Q8UK2UKE9ID3FDGNJQ09TRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:20 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'VH02Q8UK2UKE9ID3FDGNJQ09TRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1dfd7dc4-1b9f-54d0-9d12-c9c5be9738dd'), 'title': 'How to judge the current U.S. interest rate cut cycle?', 'author': 'Zhou Hao, Sun Yingchao', 'orgName': '国泰君安证券(香港)有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000121', 'orgSName': '国泰君安证券(香港)', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZBYkv5fHhZkfD5w/oJbRjO8=', 'researcher': '周浩,孙英超', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000423934', '11000370047'], 'count': 1, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZBYkv5fHhZkfD5w/oJbRjO8=', 'site': 'Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国泰君安证券(香港)', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622498957_1.pdf?1708528497000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622498957_1.pdf?1708528497000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'How to judge the current U.S. interest rate cut cycle?', 'originalAuthor': '周浩,孙英超', 'originalContent': '伴随着10年美债收益率的回升，从去年11月开始的第一轮降息交易偃旗息鼓。由于美国经济数据表现抢眼，市场开始重新调整对于降息的预期。从目前的市场共识来看，市场认为美联储在3月份降息的概率在10%左右，并将第一次降息的时点推迟至6月的议息会议。我们对于今年的降息交易的看法，主要观点是“一个确定，两个不确定”。具体而言，“一个确定”是指降息的方向是确定的，“两个不确定”中的第一个不确定是降息的节奏，而第二个不确定是降息的影响。基于经济表现大概率会超预期，即美国在2024年的增速大约在2%的情形下，我们应该如何判断今年的降息节奏和幅度呢？首先，如果美国经济再度达到2%的增速，并保持大约3%的核心通胀率，那么这样的经济表现并不是我们熟知的。从这样的经济基本面出发，我们可以基本确定的是，美国的货币政策需要保持长期的限制性，这意味着终点利率的水平大约会在3%以上，甚至会达到3.5%。如果这一判断大致成立，那么本轮降息的幅度会在200个基点左右，即降息8次。接下来需要判断的是降息的节奏。首先可以大致明确的是，降息肯定会在今年上半年开启，美联储有绝对的动力去kickoff本轮降息，并可以将未来的不确定性留给未来。短期而言，市场需要等待的是下一个确定性，即本轮周期的首次降息，在这样的确定性下，逢高入手美债，并逢高做空美元，应该是胜率更高的交易。', 'content': 'As the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, the first round of interest rate cuts that began in November last year came to an end. Due to the eye-catching performance of U.S. economic data, the market began to readjust expectations for interest rate cuts. Judging from the current market consensus, the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March is around 10%, and will postpone the first interest rate cut to the interest rate meeting in June. Our main view on this year\\'s interest rate cut transactions is \"one certainty, two uncertainties\". Specifically, \"one certainty\" means that the direction of interest rate cuts is certain. The first uncertainty among the \"two uncertainties\" is the pace of interest rate cuts, and the second uncertainty is the impact of interest rate cuts. Given that economic performance is likely to exceed expectations, that is, the U.S. growth rate in 2024 will be about 2%, how should we judge the pace and extent of interest rate cuts this year? First, if the U.S. economy reaches 2% growth again and maintains core inflation of about 3%, then this is not the kind of economic performance we are familiar with. Starting from such economic fundamentals, we can basically determine that the U.S. monetary policy needs to remain restrictive in the long term, which means that the end-point interest rate level will be approximately above 3%, or even reach 3.5%. If this judgment is roughly true, then the magnitude of this round of interest rate cuts will be around 200 basis points, that is, 8 interest rate cuts. The next thing that needs to be judged is the pace of interest rate cuts. First of all, it is roughly clear that interest rate cuts will definitely start in the first half of this year. The Federal Reserve has absolute motivation to kick off this round of interest rate cuts and can leave future uncertainty to the future. In the short term, what the market needs to wait for is the next certainty, which is the first interest rate cut in this cycle. Under such certainty, buying U.S. bonds on rallies and shorting the U.S. dollar on rallies should be a transaction with a higher winning rate.', 'authorid': UUID('4280e1a6-2352-5bb4-8e72-a211ad168481'), 'sentimentScore': -0.12558919936418533, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'SA55LECMEDCUT3276M9N8VURVNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:22 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'SA55LECMEDCUT3276M9N8VURVNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a8847820-378b-5aba-9264-2b6163132254'), 'title': 'Insights into the development of public data licensing operations (2023)', 'author': 'Cloud Computing and Big Data Institute', 'orgName': '中国信息通信研究院', 'orgCode': '80635291', 'orgSName': '中国信通院', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZOJBeQWHbkfzYqBg+nXCkuc=', 'researcher': '云计算与大数据研究所', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000370244'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZOJBeQWHbkfzYqBg+nXCkuc=', 'site': 'China Academy of Information and Communications Technology', 'originalSite': '中国信通院', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622498885_1.pdf?1708533318000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622498885_1.pdf?1708533318000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Insights into the development of public data licensing operations (2023)', 'originalAuthor': '云计算与大数据研究所', 'originalContent': '公共数据是我国数据要素供给体系的重要组成部分。相较其他数据类型，公共数据具有公共性、权威性与规模性，蕴藏巨大价值。对公共数据进行开发利用是促进数字经济发展的重要举措，对于赋能政务服务、公共治理和共同富裕均有重要意义，是充分释放数据价值、培育数据要素市场的关键突破口。近年来，我国高度重视公共数据，以政务数据为核心，在政策制定、平台建设、内部共享、对外开放等方面开展了大量实践，取得了积极进展，公共数据价值加速凸显。为全面盘活公共数据资源，如何开拓公共数据开发利用的机制创新、模式创新、场景创新成为核心议题。《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要》提出开展政府数据授权运营试点，鼓励第三方深化对公共数据的挖掘利用。在此推动下，各地各部门围绕公共数据授权运营开展了大量积极探索，不断尝试创新，积累了一定经验，但仍存在共性困难和挑战，亟待整合多方力量共同突破。在坚持数据开放的基础上，有序探索公共数据授权运营，是对现有公共数据资源供给模式的有益补充，有助于持续优化数据要素供给质量。本报告从公共数据的概念内涵入手，分析了当前公共数据授权运营的发展基础、实践现状和普遍难点，并从制度建设、实施路径、平台系统、主体协同、成效评估等环节给出了推进建议。期望本报告的观点和内容能为公共数据授权运营的具体实践提供有价值的参考，为各界进一步参与数据要素实践探索提供助力。', 'content': 'Public data is an important part of my country\\'s data element supply system. Compared with other data types, public data is public, authoritative and scalable, and contains huge value. The development and utilization of public data is an important measure to promote the development of the digital economy. It is of great significance for empowering government services, public governance and common prosperity. It is a key breakthrough to fully release the value of data and cultivate the market for data elements. In recent years, our country has attached great importance to public data, with government data as the core, and has carried out a large number of practices in policy formulation, platform construction, internal sharing, external opening, etc., and has made positive progress, and the value of public data has accelerated. In order to fully revitalize public data resources, how to develop mechanism innovation, model innovation, and scenario innovation for the development and utilization of public data has become a core issue. The \"14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People\\'s Republic of China and the Outline of Long-term Goals for 2035\" proposes to carry out pilot operations of government data authorization and encourage third parties to deepen the mining and utilization of public data. Driven by this, various localities and departments have carried out a lot of active exploration around the authorized operation of public data, constantly tried to innovate, and accumulated certain experience. However, there are still common difficulties and challenges, and it is urgent to integrate multiple forces to jointly break through. On the basis of insisting on data openness, orderly exploration of public data authorization operation is a useful supplement to the existing public data resource supply model and helps to continuously optimize the quality of data element supply. This report starts from the conceptual connotation of public data, analyzes the development basis, practical status and common difficulties of the current authorized operation of public data, and gives promotion suggestions from the aspects of system construction, implementation path, platform system, subject collaboration, effectiveness evaluation and other aspects. . It is hoped that the views and content of this report can provide valuable reference for the specific practice of public data authorization operation, and provide assistance for all walks of life to further participate in the practical exploration of data elements.', 'authorid': UUID('a7d3716e-9f2b-5097-8819-dbadf67183ed'), 'sentimentScore': 0.27852161042392254, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '5HV582A9048RUGNNB0DB9FU68RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:25 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '5HV582A9048RUGNNB0DB9FU68RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1f342da2-80e2-5b3e-8076-b45693eb582a'), 'title': 'Detailed explanation of finance, finance and new productivity after real estate transformation: How can the new and old driving forces be smoothly continued?', 'author': 'Ye Fan,Liu Yanhong', 'orgName': '西南证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000296', 'orgSName': '西南证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZNzsc0Y2zC33J8zHHWkmE/o=', 'researcher': '叶凡,刘彦宏', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000263735', '11000440469'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZNzsc0Y2zC33J8zHHWkmE/o=', 'site': 'Southwest Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '西南证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622487854_1.pdf?1708522175000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622487854_1.pdf?1708522175000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Detailed explanation of finance, finance and new productivity after real estate transformation: How can the new and old driving forces be smoothly continued?', 'originalAuthor': '叶凡,刘彦宏', 'originalContent': '摘要房地产从商品化“旧模式”步入双轨制“新模式”。当前我国房地产行业的供求关系发生重大变化，“旧模式”难以为继，“新模式”逐渐拉开序幕。在转型的过程中，“旧模式”的弊病逐渐浮出水面。首先，个别房企债务问题暴雷，目前正加快境内外债重组；其次，房地产销售走弱，导致库存高企、房价下跌。2023年房地产市场整体运行较为低迷，市场仍在调整修复中。转型的同时，加快“新模式”的建设，一是加大保障性住房建设和供给，二是房地产业向“双轨制”转型，保守估计2024城中村改造等的投资规模为1万亿元左右，拉动固定资产投资约2个百分点。“土地财政”不可持续下，财税体制加快改革。随着房地产行业逐渐向“新模式”转型，关系紧密的地方财政和城投公司也不可避免地受到影响。因为房地产行业转型过程中带来的阵痛，城镇化减速，土地价格下跌，此前的“房地产土地财政”模式也受到挑战，而且由于地方政府对城投平台的债务提供了隐性担保，带来了潜在的政府债务违约风险。转型的路径主要有两方面：一是城投平台加快转型升级，比如对于资产质量较低的企业进行破产清算、兼��重组等；二是新一轮的财税体制改革，央地财政关系调整，缓解“土地财政”下滑所带来的影响。“土地金融”脱钩后，金融回归支持实体本源。房企融资限制的出台，房地产行业“过度金融化”逐渐得到矫正。在转型的阵痛期，不少房企频繁出现债务违约情况，从而也使得部分盈利能力较弱、资产质量偏差的中小金融机构的风险逐渐暴露，后续将主要通过补充资本金、加快合并重组、加快不良资产处理等路径来持续化解中小金融机构风险。而在房地产的“旧模式”逐渐成为过去后，金融行业需要回归本源，服务于实体经济：企业融资和个人消费信贷成本持续降低；发挥结构性货币政策工具作用；多层次资本市场不断完善和深化改革。新质生产力将成为拉动经济增长的新动能。在以“房地产—土地财政—土地金融”为代表的旧模式式微的背景下，未来经济发展的着力点将在大力发展制造业和实体经济上。传统制造业方面，未来转型方向主要为自主可控、数字化、绿色化三个方面。在传统制造业转型升级的同时，我国还将进一步加快“新质生产力”的发展，包括推进战略性新兴产业和未来产业发展，央国企在该领域将承担更重要的任务，不断加快对于战略性新兴产业的部署，经济发展基础较好的省市也在积极部署未来产业。风险提示：政策落地不及预期，地方债务风险超预期恶化。', 'content': 'Abstract Real estate has moved from the \"old model\" of commercialization to the \"new model\" of dual-track system. At present, the supply and demand relationship in my country\\'s real estate industry has undergone major changes. The \"old model\" is unsustainable and the \"new model\" is gradually beginning. In the process of transformation, the shortcomings of the \"old model\" gradually surfaced. First, the debt problems of individual real estate companies have exploded, and they are currently accelerating the restructuring of domestic and foreign debts; second, real estate sales have weakened, resulting in high inventory and falling housing prices. The overall real estate market will be relatively sluggish in 2023, and the market is still undergoing adjustment and repair. While transforming, the construction of \"new models\" should be accelerated, firstly, to increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, and secondly, to transform the real estate industry into a \"dual-track system\". It is conservatively estimated that the scale of investment in urban village renovation and other projects in 2024 will be about 1 trillion yuan. Boost fixed asset investment by about 2 percentage points. If \"land finance\" is unsustainable, the reform of the fiscal and taxation system will be accelerated. As the real estate industry gradually transforms into a \"new model\", closely related local finance and urban investment companies will inevitably be affected. Due to the pain caused by the transformation of the real estate industry, urbanization has slowed down and land prices have fallen. The previous \"real estate and land finance\" model has also been challenged. Moreover, because local governments have provided implicit guarantees for the debts of urban investment platforms, it has brought about Potential government debt default risk. There are two main paths for transformation: first, urban investment platforms accelerate transformation and upgrading, such as bankruptcy liquidation, mergers and reorganizations of enterprises with low asset quality; second, a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform, adjustments to central and local fiscal relations, and ease of The impact of the decline in “land finance”. After the decoupling of \"land finance\", finance returns to its roots of supporting entities. With the introduction of financing restrictions for real estate companies, the \"over-financialization\" of the real estate industry has gradually been corrected. During the painful period of transformation, many real estate companies frequently experienced debt defaults, which gradually exposed the risks of some small and medium-sized financial institutions with weak profitability and deviation in asset quality. The follow-up will mainly be through replenishing capital, accelerating mergers and reorganizations, and accelerating mergers and reorganizations. Dispose of non-performing assets and other ways to continue to resolve the risks of small and medium-sized financial institutions. After the \"old model\" of real estate gradually becomes a thing of the past, the financial industry needs to return to its roots and serve the real economy: corporate financing and personal consumption credit costs continue to decrease; structural monetary policy tools play a role; multi-level capital markets continue to improve and deepen reform. New productivity will become a new driving force for economic growth. In the context of the decline of the old model represented by \"real estate-land finance-land finance\", the focus of future economic development will be on vigorously developing manufacturing and the real economy. In terms of traditional manufacturing, the future transformation directions are mainly independent and controllable, digital and green. While the traditional manufacturing industry is transforming and upgrading, our country will further accelerate the development of \"new productive forces\", including promoting the development of strategic emerging industries and future industries. Central state-owned enterprises will assume more important tasks in this field and continue to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries. Regarding the deployment of emerging industries, provinces and cities with a good economic development foundation are also actively deploying future industries. Risk warning: Policy implementation falls short of expectations, and local debt risks worsen beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('a9583651-e2b3-5392-949b-b9913b346277'), 'sentimentScore': -0.1623600423336029, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'AAIASVCSTRTKUEE0D5E09A9U7VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:27 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'AAIASVCSTRTKUEE0D5E09A9U7VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('093e5fc2-8e16-505c-b001-dad497e10db5'), 'title': 'Macro information tracking', 'author': 'Chen Li', 'orgName': '川财证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000204', 'orgSName': '川财证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZA9nTRYsCAQUVvD9Yl7hgZw=', 'researcher': '陈雳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000174919'], 'count': 13, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZA9nTRYsCAQUVvD9Yl7hgZw=', 'site': 'Chuancai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '川财证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622487845_1.pdf?1708525435000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622487845_1.pdf?1708525435000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro information tracking', 'originalAuthor': '陈雳', 'originalContent': '宏观政策中国人民银行：5年期以上LPR为3.95%，较前值下降25个基点中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2024年2月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.45%，与前值持平；5年期以上LPR为3.95%，较前值下降25个基点。（中国人民银行）宏观动态商务部：已召开16场外资企业圆桌会解决问题诉求300余件自2023年7月起，商务部建立外资企业圆桌会议制度，截至今年1月底，商务部已召开16场外资企业圆桌会，共400余家外资企业、外国商协会参会，已解决会上反映的问题诉求300余件。一是紧抓快办一批重点问题。商务部会同财政部、税务总局继续对外资研发中心采购国产设备全额退还增值税；将外籍个人有关津补贴个人所得税政策延续至2027年底；国家发改委明确绿色电力交易规则；市场监管总局发布《外商投资企业参与我国标准化工作“十问十答”》。二是改进完善一批政策规定。外交部优化发布新版外国人来华签证申请表；国家移民局签发启用新版外国人永久居留身份证；市场监管总局修订《特殊医学用途配方食品注册管理办法》；国家网信办起草数据跨境流动有关规定并向社会公开征求意见。三是解释说明一批热点关切。商务部搭台、各部门参与，以“组团式”服务主动对接中国美国商会、中国欧盟商会、中国日本商会等主要外国商协会及重点外资企业。（新华社）', 'content': 'Macroeconomic Policy People\\'s Bank of China: LPR over 5 years is 3.95%, down 25 basis points from the previous value. The People\\'s Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) on February 20, 2024 is: 1 The one-year LPR was 3.45%, the same as the previous value; the five-year and above LPR was 3.95%, down 25 basis points from the previous value. (People\\'s Bank of China) Macro Dynamics Ministry of Commerce: 16 roundtable meetings for foreign-funded enterprises have been held to resolve more than 300 complaints and complaints. Starting from July 2023, the Ministry of Commerce has established a roundtable meeting system for foreign-funded enterprises. As of the end of January this year, the Ministry of Commerce has held 16 A total of more than 400 foreign-funded enterprises and foreign business associations participated in the foreign-funded enterprise roundtable, and more than 300 issues and demands reported at the meeting have been resolved. First, we must pay close attention to solving a number of key issues quickly. The Ministry of Commerce, together with the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation, will continue to fully refund the value-added tax on domestic equipment purchased by foreign-funded R&D centers; the personal income tax policy on subsidies and subsidies for foreign individuals will be extended to the end of 2027; the National Development and Reform Commission clarified the rules for green power trading; the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the \"Foreign Investors \"Ten Questions and Ten Answers\" on Investment Enterprises\\' Participation in my country\\'s Standardization Work\". The second is to improve and improve a number of policies and regulations. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs optimized and released a new version of the visa application form for foreigners to come to China; the National Immigration Bureau issued and launched a new version of permanent residence ID cards for foreigners; the State Administration for Market Regulation revised the \"Registration and Management Measures for Formula Foods for Special Medical Purposes\"; the Cyberspace Administration of China drafted the cross-border flow of data Relevant regulations shall be publicly solicited from the public for opinions. The third is to explain a number of hot issues. The Ministry of Commerce set up a platform and various departments participated to actively connect with major foreign business associations and key foreign-invested enterprises such as the American Chamber of Commerce in China, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, and the Japan Chamber of Commerce in China with \"group-style\" services. (Xinhua News Agency)', 'authorid': UUID('267e0858-7a39-5196-be76-43e80fed6dc6'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8434591321274638, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'VBIGAVP14ICEPFGD3BBD5SUKA3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:30 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'VBIGAVP14ICEPFGD3BBD5SUKA3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('93a18312-da69-5218-aa75-b1b288a71cc5'), 'title': 'Macro Observation Issue 12, 2024 (Total Issue 523): Debate on China’s Economic “Deflation”*', 'author': 'Fan Ruoying', 'orgName': '中国银行', 'orgCode': '80001122', 'orgSName': '中国银行', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZARUYe5oueu/byU45sjEPXc=', 'researcher': '范若滢', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257148'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZARUYe5oueu/byU45sjEPXc=', 'site': 'Bank of China', 'originalSite': '中国银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622483465_1.pdf?1708525127000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622483465_1.pdf?1708525127000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Observation Issue 12, 2024 (Total Issue 523): Debate on China’s Economic “Deflation”*', 'originalAuthor': '范若滢', 'originalContent': '2023年以来，社会各界对中国经济是否通缩的问题展开了广泛的讨论。本文认为，当前中国物价只是暂时的、结构性的下跌，且货币环境较宽松、经济整体运行稳定，并没有出现严格定义上的通货紧缩现象。但中国经济运行确实出现了一些困难，需求不足、市场信心弱、部分行业产能过剩、货币政策传导受阻等问题值得高度关注。从历史上国内外典型通缩时期的表现和应对中可得到启示，对于经济中出现的通缩趋势要给予高度重视并及时反应。建议政策上要兼顾短期稳增长、扩内需，以及长期促改革、调结构，推动经济景气度持续恢复。', 'content': \"Since 2023, all sectors of society have launched extensive discussions on whether China’s economy is experiencing deflation. This article believes that the current price decline in China is only temporary and structural, the monetary environment is relatively loose, the overall economic operation is stable, and there is no strictly defined deflation. However, China's economic operation has indeed encountered some difficulties. Issues such as insufficient demand, weak market confidence, overcapacity in some industries, and blocked monetary policy transmission deserve great attention. Inspiration can be obtained from the performance and response to typical deflationary periods at home and abroad in history. We must attach great importance to the deflationary trend in the economy and respond in a timely manner. It is recommended that policies should take into account short-term stabilization of growth and expansion of domestic demand, as well as long-term promotion of reform and structural adjustment to promote the continued recovery of economic prosperity.\", 'authorid': UUID('84df65e2-2657-53df-8b9f-a64fe334b5e7'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8524296060204506, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '73SIMS4HGAR24BGP83DISOO4GVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:33 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '73SIMS4HGAR24BGP83DISOO4GVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('afdf12d9-90ad-5b7f-85ea-1a09f59201cc'), 'title': 'Macro research: Asymmetric interest rate cuts promote the stabilization of real estate and stimulate the recovery of consumption', 'author': 'Yuanno', 'orgName': '中邮证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80036717', 'orgSName': '中邮证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZDTOiarGRIf2moNsNzxCmcs=', 'researcher': '袁野', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000266839'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZDTOiarGRIf2moNsNzxCmcs=', 'site': 'China Post Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中邮证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622483464_1.pdf?1708513456000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622483464_1.pdf?1708513456000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro research: Asymmetric interest rate cuts promote the stabilization of real estate and stimulate the recovery of consumption', 'originalAuthor': '袁野', 'originalContent': '核心观点2月20日，央行宣布1年期LPR为3.45%，保持不变，5年期以上LPR为3.95%，较上期下降了25bp。本次非对称降息，1年期LPR保持不变，5年期以上LPR出现大幅度下降，这是对市场流动性、价格水平及经济稳增长需求的综合考虑。其中，5年期以上LPR大幅下调25bp，超市场预期，应是充分考虑价格变动影响，实际利率水平恢复至2023年3月水平。5年期以上LPR大幅下调，将会有效带动社会综合融资成本下行，提振市场信心，促进房地产市场健康发展和消费持续回升，同时缩窄居民房贷利率与消费贷利率水平差距，避免资金空转。值得注意的是，本次降息也可能是避免因实际利率上升而抵消存量房贷利率下调的政策效应，核心是托底房地产市场平稳健康发展，而非强刺激。向后看，商业银行资产端收益率降幅高于近期负债端成本下降，进而压缩银行息差空间，同时，考虑通胀可能会温和回升，扭转价格因素导致实际利率持续走高趋势，叠加重点领域风险可能对商业银行产生的潜在影响，未来降息可能会相对谨慎。风险提示：美联储超预期加息；房地产市场超预期下行；海外地缘政治冲突加剧。', 'content': 'Core Views On February 20, the central bank announced that the 1-year LPR was 3.45%, unchanged, and the 5-year and above LPR was 3.95%, a decrease of 25bp from the previous period. In this asymmetric interest rate cut, the 1-year LPR remains unchanged, while the 5-year and above LPR drops significantly. This is a comprehensive consideration of market liquidity, price levels and the need for stable economic growth. Among them, the LPR over 5 years was significantly reduced by 25bp, exceeding market expectations. The impact of price changes should be fully considered, and the actual interest rate level returned to the level in March 2023. A significant reduction in LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years will effectively drive down the comprehensive social financing costs, boost market confidence, promote the healthy development of the real estate market and the continued recovery of consumption. At the same time, it will narrow the gap between residential mortgage interest rates and consumer loan interest rates, and avoid idling funds. It is worth noting that this interest rate cut may also be to avoid the policy effect of the reduction in existing mortgage interest rates being offset by an increase in real interest rates. The core is to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, rather than a strong stimulus. Looking backward, the asset-side yield of commercial banks has fallen more than the recent decline in liability-side costs, thereby compressing bank interest margins. At the same time, considering that inflation may pick up moderately, reversing the continued upward trend in real interest rates caused by price factors, there may be risks in key areas. Regarding the potential impact on commercial banks, future interest rate cuts may be relatively cautious. Risk warning: The Federal Reserve raises interest rates beyond expectations; the real estate market declines beyond expectations; overseas geopolitical conflicts intensify.', 'authorid': UUID('41b3960d-9709-5ae8-b077-aad17d16ee4a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9127455279231071, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'AG3KJNPK95EEFQ5T5TL0LP89SNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:37 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'AG3KJNPK95EEFQ5T5TL0LP89SNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('180cd97a-6808-5766-bd24-b782099a4947'), 'title': 'ESG: Vietnam’s energy transition and climate action: Towards a 2050 net-zero emissions target', 'author': 'Yang Bin', 'orgName': '海通国际证券集团有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001968', 'orgSName': '海通国际', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZJ0P0YTDc2USV/UMjwVIyF4=', 'researcher': '杨斌', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000418831'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZJ0P0YTDc2USV/UMjwVIyF4=', 'site': 'Haitong International Securities Group Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '海通国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622478325_1.pdf?1708525969000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622478325_1.pdf?1708525969000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'ESG: Vietnam’s energy transition and climate action: Towards a 2050 net-zero emissions target', 'originalAuthor': '杨斌', 'originalContent': '热点速评越南确立2030年新能源目标，减少国家对煤炭的依赖。越南政府近日批准《到2030年越南氢能发展战略和2050年愿景》（以下简称《战略》），标志着越南在能源转型和气候变化应对方面取得了显著进展。此《战略》有利于确保能源安全、减少温室气体排放、促进绿色经济、循环经济和氢能经济发展作出积极贡献。根据《2021-2030年国家能源总体规划和2050年愿景》方案，越南能源部门设定到2030年节约能源约8-10%、温室气体排放量减少17-26%的目标。到2050年节能约15-20%、温室气体排放量减少90%的目标，从而在2050年之前达到净零排放的国家目标。越南优先发展绿色金融市场和碳市场。据越南国家银行的统计数据，在2017-2022年阶段，绿色信贷金额的年均增长率23%。截止2022年底，越南绿色信贷项目余额超过210亿美元，占整个经济体贷款余额4%以上，较2021年底增长近13%。目前清洁技术行业的市场规模为每年40-50亿美元，在越南国家银行引导信贷组织投入的12个绿化领域中，清洁农业贷款余额占32%。据越南应对气候变化局预测，到2040年，越南需要约4000亿美元（约占GDP的6.8%）来应对气候变化。越南正在世界银行的帮助下制定“发展越南碳市场”项目。投资500万美元，从2024年起分4年实施，旨在支持越南发展碳市场、设计和实施碳信用额度以及碳配额交易机制。预计到2025年，开始试点碳信用额交易所，于2028年正式运营。越南吸引外资企业势头强劲。越南是东南亚最具活力和快速发展的经济体之一，吸引了大量的外国直接投资（FDI）。据越南计划与投资部外国投资局统计数据，截至2023年12月，越南吸引外国直接投资超366亿美元，同比增长32.1%。其中，新签注册项目3188个，同比增长56.6%；新签项目投资额近202亿美元，同比增长62.2%。根据越南投资计划部（MPI）数据，2022年共108个国家和地区在越南投资，与绿色经济有关的投资共90亿美元，占越南GDP的2%。2023年11月，越南自然资源与环境部与联合国开发计划署（UNDP）在首都河内共同召开了关于制定《发展循环经济的国家行动计划》的2023年越南循环经济论坛。会议再次强调了越共十三大决议，强调发展绿色经济，减少废弃物，降低温室气体排放，鼓励低碳和循环经济模式的发展，并寻求提高生产效率的有效途径。这不仅为越南带来了贸易和投资机会，也带来了更高的ESG标准和承诺。越南ESG趋势发展日益壮大。2020年11月，越南国会审议通过新的《环境保护法》并于2022年1月实施。新的环保法补充了许多新内容，如增加对投资项目进行分类的环保指标；强调“污染者付费”；引入碳排放报告制度，企业需主动参与数据统计并接受第三方机构的核查。2023年底在阿联酋迪拜召开的《联合国气候变化框架公约》第28次缔约方大会（COP28）框架内，越南继续大力落实“公正能源转型伙伴关系”（JETP）协议，是率先参与“全球降温承诺”的63个国家之一。根据大华银行（UOB）的《2023年商业展望研究》，94%的受访越南企业意识到可持续发展的重要性，超过一半的企业表示，可持续发展有助于提高企业声誉、吸引投资者并为企业带来竞争优势。可持续发展和负责人经营转变已成为全球趋势，在亚太地区，对上市公司全面强制要求披露ESG报���的有中国香港、马来西亚、新加坡、越南等国家。在这种情况下，将ESG标准应用到生产和商业活动对越南企业至关重要。不仅仅是为了合规，更是一种策略，可以帮助企业更好地管理风险，改善经营情况，并降低经营成本。外资企业在越南的绿色投资发展战略。1）致力于实施绿色生产方式。包括节能减排、减少废物产生以及提升能源使用效率。这可能涉及制造流程的改进、采用环保材料以及减少环境污染。2）利用可再生能源资源。越南具有丰富的太阳能和风能资源。企业可以利用太阳能和风能，以减少对传统化石燃料的依赖并降低温室气体排放。3）建立本地化的供应链。与越南当地供应商合作，以减少物流成本和碳排放，同时促进当地经济增长。4）关注社会责任和劳工权益。关注其在越南工厂的社会责任，努力确保员工享有良好的工作条件和福利。这包括遵守当地法规、提供安全的工作环境和培训机会。5）投资于技术和研发。外资企业投资于技术和研发，促进当地创新和科技发展。这有助于提升当地工程师和研究人员的技术水平，同时推广绿色技术的应用。这些策略不仅有助于外资企业实现可持续发展目标，也将促进越南经济的绿色转型和可持续增长。投资建议：建议关注在越南设立业务的外国公司，如提出“数据驱动、绿色发展”战略及获评为“中国工业碳达峰领跑者企业”的【工业富联】等。风险提示：ESG政策不及预期；宏观经济及市场流动性大规模变化风险。', 'content': 'Quick Review of Hot Topics Vietnam has established a new energy goal for 2030 to reduce the country\\'s dependence on coal. The Vietnamese government recently approved the \"Vietnam Hydrogen Energy Development Strategy to 2030 and Vision 2050\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Strategy\"), marking Vietnam\\'s significant progress in energy transformation and climate change response. This \"Strategy\" will help ensure energy security, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and promote the development of green economy, circular economy and hydrogen economy and make positive contributions. According to the \"National Energy Master Plan 2021-2030 and Vision 2050\", Vietnam\\'s energy sector has set goals to save energy by about 8-10% and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 17-26% by 2030. The goal is to save approximately 15-20% of energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2050, thereby achieving the national goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. Vietnam prioritizes the development of green financial markets and carbon markets. According to statistics from the State Bank of Vietnam, in the 2017-2022 period, the average annual growth rate of green credit amounts is 23%. As of the end of 2022, the balance of Vietnam\\'s green credit projects exceeded US$21 billion, accounting for more than 4% of the entire economy\\'s loan balance, an increase of nearly 13% from the end of 2021. The current market size of the clean technology industry is US$4-5 billion per year. Among the 12 greening fields that the State Bank of Vietnam guides credit organizations to invest in, the balance of clean agricultural loans accounts for 32%. According to the Vietnam Climate Change Bureau, Vietnam will need approximately US$400 billion (approximately 6.8% of GDP) by 2040 to address climate change. Vietnam is developing the \"Developing Vietnam Carbon Market\" project with the help of the World Bank. An investment of US$5 million will be implemented in four years starting from 2024, aiming to support Vietnam in developing carbon markets, designing and implementing carbon credits and carbon quota trading mechanisms. It is expected that by 2025, the carbon credit exchange will be piloted and officially operational in 2028. Vietnam has strong momentum in attracting foreign-invested enterprises. Vietnam is one of the most dynamic and rapidly growing economies in Southeast Asia, attracting large amounts of foreign direct investment (FDI). According to statistics from the Foreign Investment Bureau of the Ministry of Planning and Investment, as of December 2023, Vietnam has attracted more than US$36.6 billion in foreign direct investment, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%. Among them, there were 3,188 newly signed and registered projects, a year-on-year increase of 56.6%; the investment in newly signed projects was nearly US$20.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62.2%. According to data from Vietnam’s Ministry of Investment and Planning (MPI), a total of 108 countries and regions will invest in Vietnam in 2022, with investments related to green economy totaling US$9 billion, accounting for 2% of Vietnam’s GDP. In November 2023, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Vietnam and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) jointly held the 2023 Vietnam Circular Economy Forum in the capital Hanoi on the formulation of the \"National Action Plan for the Development of Circular Economy\". The meeting once again emphasized the resolution of the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, emphasizing the development of a green economy, reducing waste, lowering greenhouse gas emissions, encouraging the development of low-carbon and circular economic models, and seeking effective ways to improve production efficiency. This not only brings trade and investment opportunities to Vietnam, but also higher ESG standards and commitments. The ESG trend in Vietnam is growing day by day. In November 2020, the Vietnamese Congress reviewed and passed the new Environmental Protection Law and it will be implemented in January 2022. The new environmental protection law adds many new contents, such as adding environmental protection indicators to classify investment projects; emphasizing \"polluter pays\"; introducing a carbon emission reporting system, and enterprises must actively participate in data statistics and accept verification by third-party agencies. Within the framework of the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to be held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, at the end of 2023, Vietnam continues to vigorously implement the \"Just Energy Transition Partnership\" (JETP) agreement and is the first to participate in the \"Global Cooling Commitment\" one of 63 countries. According to United Overseas Bank\\'s (UOB) 2023 Business Outlook Study, 94% of Vietnamese companies surveyed are aware of the importance of sustainable development, and more than half of the companies said that sustainable development can help improve corporate reputation and attract investment. and bring competitive advantages to enterprises. Sustainable development and responsible management transformation have become global trends. In the Asia-Pacific region, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and other countries have comprehensively mandated the disclosure of ESG reports for listed companies. In this context, applying ESG standards to production and business activities is crucial for Vietnamese companies. It’s not just for compliance, it’s a strategy that can help companies better manage risks, improve operations, and reduce operating costs. Green investment and development strategies of foreign-invested enterprises in Vietnam. 1) Committed to implementing green production methods. Including energy conservation and emission reduction, reducing waste generation and improving energy efficiency. This may involve improvements in manufacturing processes, the use of environmentally friendly materials, and the reduction of environmental pollution. 2) Utilize renewable energy resources. Vietnam has abundant solar and wind energy resources. Businesses can harness solar and wind energy to reduce their reliance on traditional fossil fuels and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 3) Establish a localized supply chain. Cooperate with local suppliers in Vietnam to reduce logistics costs and carbon emissions while promoting local economic growth. 4) Pay attention to social responsibilities and labor rights. Pays attention to the social responsibility of its factories in Vietnam and strives to ensure that employees enjoy good working conditions and benefits. This includes complying with local regulations, providing a safe working environment and training opportunities. 5) Invest in technology and R&D. Foreign-owned enterprises invest in technology and research and development to promote local innovation and technological development. This helps to improve the technical level of local engineers and researchers while promoting the application of green technologies. These strategies will not only help foreign-funded enterprises achieve sustainable development goals, but also promote the green transformation and sustainable growth of Vietnam\\'s economy. Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to foreign companies setting up business in Vietnam, such as [Industrial Fii], which proposes a \"data-driven, green development\" strategy and is rated as the \"Leader of China\\'s Industrial Carbon Peak Enterprise\". Risk warning: ESG policies fall short of expectations; there are risks of large-scale changes in macroeconomics and market liquidity.', 'authorid': UUID('752b5c87-819b-5bfb-91e4-998b3b6f8734'), 'sentimentScore': 0.7583138439804316, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'G4QESOV6VDUAKO8UKOM0UGD8SNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:41 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'G4QESOV6VDUAKO8UKOM0UGD8SNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('881a8ccf-7296-585e-a1d8-2c62eedfacf4'), 'title': 'Financial Market Analysis Weekly', 'author': 'Fu Yang', 'orgName': '中航证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000197', 'orgSName': '中航证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZEANA4b9PiDIb330csSPMQ4=', 'researcher': '符旸', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177393'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZEANA4b9PiDIb330csSPMQ4=', 'site': 'AVIC Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中航证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622477817_1.pdf?1708509439000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622477817_1.pdf?1708509439000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Financial Market Analysis Weekly', 'originalAuthor': '符旸', 'originalContent': '报告摘要资金面分析：跨春节来临，资金面持续平衡宽松；税期将至叠加MLF到期，关注央行公开市场操作情况。本周央行开展了13160亿元逆回购操作，因有17330亿元逆回购到期，本周央行净回笼4170亿元。。央行前期降准于本周生效，一定程度上对流动性形成补充，资金市场维持平衡宽松态势。2月18日至2月23日随春节结束，节假日对于资金面的扰动也随之终止，有助于资金面回归平稳。此外政府债融资额环比回落，位于相对低位，预计对于资金面冲击有限。同时应注意2月23日为缴税截止日，随后两个工作日为缴税走款日，2月份虽然不是传统缴税大月，但预计税期仍将对资金面产生影响。最后2月18日至23日仍存大量逆回购及MLF到期，结合税期将至，关注央行公开市场操作情况。利率债：本周CPI/PPI及金融数据发布，CPI春节错月下降，PPI降幅收窄，信贷开门红；深圳及北京通州发布楼市新政，均放松程度较大；联储降息预期再次大幅延后；权益市场有一定期待，翘板效应下带来部分止盈盘。联储的“higher+longer”压制下，降息预期可能再次落空，地产政策继续托底但较难反转，权益市场同理，在经济弱修复情况下，利率上行触及关键点位将有交易性机会。CPI受春节错位影响同比下降环比好转，PPI环比同样下降，金融数据受到春节/开门红影响，略超预期，但持续性未知，基本面数据仍为弱修复。消费方面，春节期间最直观的为电影票房，80亿+创中国影史春节档票房纪录，在影片质量较好的情况下影院依旧是春节期间消费的较优之选，根据灯塔专业版数据，虽然总票房和观影人次创纪录，但平均票价下滑至50元（去年52.3元），春节档电影市场的下沉趋势明显，三四线城市票房所占份额超过54%（去年50%）。地产端政策持续托底，但在现阶段的供需结构下很难对经济形成拉动，对债市利空有限。MLF降息可能会再次落空，既上周较强非农后，春节期间美国PPI继续强劲，降息预期再次延后，符合本报告最初预期，继续压制国内降息空间。权益市场目前有一定的反弹迹象，预计节后至两会期间将延续反弹/横盘，权益对债市的翘板利好不再，但利率上行至关键点位将有一定的交易性机会。权益市场：春节前一周A股市场指数整体上涨，北向资金呈净流入状态，市场活跃度有所上升。北向资金本周呈净流入状态，净买入金额为160.82亿元。上证指数、深证成指、沪深300、科创50、创业板指、中证500、中证1000分别上涨4.97%、9.49%、5.83%、11.60%、11.38%、12.86%、9.15%。分行业来看，申万一级行业中医药生物、国防军工、美容护理表现较强，分别上涨10.31%、9.26%、9.01%；建筑装饰、综合表现较弱，分别下跌0.69%、0.58%。整体来看，本周市场上涨的主要原因为：1）中央汇金宣布扩大ETF增持范围；2）证监会网站陆续发布“证监会新闻发言人就股票质押有关情况答记者问”、“严惩操纵市场恶意做空切实维护市场稳定运行”、“证监会新闻发言人就“两融”融资业务有关情况答记者问”、“证监会新闻发言人就‘两融’融券业务有关情况答记者问”等多条公告，积极表态稳定市场信心；3）1月社融和人民币信贷同比均多增，高于市场预期，实现开门红。展望未来，海外降息预期反复，美联储首次降息时点或推迟。逆周期调控为市场注入活力，活跃资本市场动作接连落地。由于央企盈利稳健且分红较高，过去五年高股息指数的表现优于市场，这一势头有望延续。在央企改革推动下，在“一企一策”考核对于央企共性量化指标与个体企业差异性的统筹下，央企值得重点关注。此轮科技产业浪潮背景下，重点看好科技相关央企的表现。美元指数分析：美国1月份CPI及PPI数据双双超预期，美元指数本周维持上行。2月12日至16日期间，美国1月份通胀数据公布，其中美国1月份CPI同比增3.1%，超市场预期，同期公布的核心CPI同比环比亦超市场预期水平。稍晚公布的PPI数据同比增速同样高于市场预期值���韧性超预期的通胀数据一定程度打击了投资者对于美联储提早降息的乐观情绪。相对于通胀数据，美国1月份零售销售环比表现不及市场预期，同样差于前值，一定程度上反映当前面临连续加息，当前美国经济存在的压力同样逐步增大。近期数位美联储官员发言，整体表示对于降息仍需耐心，今年降息2至3次是较为合理的。受美国宏观数据以及美联储引导影响，市场对于美联储3月份降息的预期进一步转弱，美元指数本周上行。风险提示：货币政策超预期收紧 经济超预期复苏导致债券收益率大幅反弹地方财政状况恶化导致城投债信用风险集中显现 美国经济及通胀数据超预期下美联储紧缩周期延长', 'content': 'Report Summary Capital Analysis: As the Spring Festival approaches, capital continues to be balanced and loose; the tax period is approaching and MLF expires, so pay attention to the central bank\\'s open market operations. This week the central bank launched a 1.316 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation. As 1.733 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, the central bank withdrew a net 417 billion yuan this week. . The central bank\\'s previous reserve requirement ratio reduction took effect this week, supplementing liquidity to a certain extent, and the capital market maintained a balanced and loose trend. From February 18th to February 23rd, with the end of the Spring Festival, the disturbance of the capital side during the holidays also ended, which helped the capital side return to stability. In addition, the amount of government debt financing fell from the previous month and is at a relatively low level. The impact on funding is expected to be limited. At the same time, it should be noted that February 23 is the tax payment deadline, and the following two working days are the tax payment and withdrawal days. Although February is not a traditional tax payment month, it is expected that the tax period will still have an impact on funds. Finally, there are still a large number of reverse repurchases and MLF expirations from February 18th to 23rd. Considering the tax period is approaching, pay attention to the central bank\\'s open market operations. Interest rate bonds: CPI/PPI and financial data were released this week. CPI fell in the wrong month during the Spring Festival, PPI decline narrowed, and credit got off to a good start; Shenzhen and Beijing Tongzhou released new policies for the property market, both of which were relatively relaxed; the Fed\\'s expected interest rate cut was significantly postponed again; Equity The market has certain expectations, and some take-profit orders have been brought about by the seesaw effect. Under the \"higher+longer\" suppression by the Federal Reserve, expectations of interest rate cuts may once again come to nothing. Real estate policy continues to support the bottom but is difficult to reverse. The same is true for the equity market. Under the condition of weak economic recovery, there will be trading opportunities when interest rates hit key points. . CPI was affected by the Spring Festival dislocation, and the year-on-year decline improved month-on-month. PPI also declined month-on-month. Financial data was affected by the Spring Festival/good start, slightly exceeding expectations, but the sustainability is unknown, and the fundamental data is still weakly repaired. In terms of consumption, the most intuitive thing during the Spring Festival is the movie box office. 8 billion+ set a box office record for the Spring Festival in the history of Chinese films. When the quality of the movies is good, theaters are still the better choice for consumption during the Spring Festival. According to Beacon Professional Edition data, although The total box office and number of moviegoers hit a record, but the average ticket price fell to 50 yuan (52.3 yuan last year). The Spring Festival movie market has an obvious downward trend, with the box office share of third- and fourth-tier cities exceeding 54% (50% last year). Real estate policies continue to support the bottom line, but under the current supply and demand structure, it is difficult to stimulate the economy, and the negative impact on the bond market is limited. The MLF interest rate cut may fail again. After last week\\'s strong non-farm payrolls, US PPI continued to be strong during the Spring Festival, and interest rate cut expectations were postponed again, in line with the initial expectations of this report, continuing to suppress domestic interest rate cut space. The equity market currently shows some signs of rebound, and it is expected that the rebound/sideways movement will continue after the holiday and during the two sessions. Equity will no longer have a positive impact on the bond market, but there will be certain trading opportunities when interest rates rise to key points. Equity market: In the week before the Spring Festival, the A-share market index rose overall, northbound funds showed a net inflow, and market activity increased. Northbound funds showed a net inflow this week, with a net purchase amount of 16.082 billion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index, CSI 300, Science and Technology 50, GEM Index, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rose by 4.97%, 9.49%, 5.83%, 11.60%, 11.38%, 12.86%, and 9.15% respectively. In terms of industries, Shenwan\\'s first-level industries, traditional Chinese medicine and biology, national defense and military industry, and beauty care, performed strongly, rising by 10.31%, 9.26%, and 9.01% respectively; construction and decoration, and comprehensive performance were weak, falling by 0.69% and 0.58% respectively. Overall, the main reasons for the market\\'s rise this week are: 1) Central Huijin announced the expansion of the scope of ETF holdings; 2) The China Securities Regulatory Commission website successively published \"Spokesperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission Answers Journalists\\' Questions on Stock Pledge Related Situations\", \"Severe Punishment for Manipulation\" \"Malicious short selling in the market effectively maintains the stable operation of the market\", \"The spokesperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission answered reporters\\' questions on the relevant situation of the \\'two financing\\' financing business\", \"The spokesperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission answered the reporters\\' questions on the relevant situation of the \\'two financing\\' securities lending business\" and other announcements, actively expressing their stance to stabilize market confidence; 3) Social financing and RMB credit both increased year-on-year in January, higher than market expectations, achieving a good start. Looking ahead, overseas interest rate cuts are expected repeatedly, and the timing of the Federal Reserve\\'s first interest rate cut may be postponed. Countercyclical regulation has injected vitality into the market, and active capital market actions have been implemented one after another. The high dividend index has outperformed the market over the past five years due to solid profits and high dividends from state-owned enterprises, and this momentum is expected to continue. Driven by the reform of central enterprises, and with the \"one enterprise, one policy\" assessment coordinating the common quantitative indicators of central enterprises and the differences of individual enterprises, central enterprises deserve special attention. Against the background of this wave of technology industry, we should focus on the performance of technology-related central enterprises. U.S. dollar index analysis: U.S. CPI and PPI data in January both exceeded expectations, and the U.S. dollar index maintained its upward trend this week. From February 12 to 16, US inflation data for January were released. The US CPI in January increased by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. The core CPI released during the same period also exceeded market expectations year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI data released later was also higher than market expectations. The more resilient than expected inflation data has dampened investor optimism about an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Relative to inflation data, the month-on-month performance of U.S. retail sales in January fell short of market expectations and was also worse than the previous value. This reflects to a certain extent that the current pressure on the U.S. economy is also gradually increasing as it faces successive interest rate hikes. Several Federal Reserve officials have spoken recently, saying overall that they still need to be patient when it comes to cutting interest rates, and that two to three interest rate cuts this year is more reasonable. Affected by U.S. macro data and guidance from the Federal Reserve, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in March have further weakened, and the U.S. dollar index has risen this week. Risk warning: Monetary policy tightened more than expected. The economy recovered more than expected, resulting in a sharp rebound in bond yields. The deterioration of local fiscal conditions led to the concentration of credit risks on urban investment bonds. The Fed\\'s tightening cycle was extended due to US economic and inflation data exceeding expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('0a85bc8e-d406-5429-b05e-8a205ba6d31c'), 'sentimentScore': -0.5909097641706467, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'O00F7MAOJQDA2MP0EO4V2C0TSVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:44 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'O00F7MAOJQDA2MP0EO4V2C0TSVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1b08fd30-33bb-572f-8a44-07edeb1e8a76'), 'title': \"Comments on the central bank's 5-year LPR interest rate cut: Entering the moment of risk response, pay attention to the pressure of debt on commodities\", 'author': 'Xu Wenyu', 'orgName': '华泰期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80055521', 'orgSName': '华泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZN1eEsj5ggD2jYRcOxwtW3k=', 'researcher': '徐闻宇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000194620'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZN1eEsj5ggD2jYRcOxwtW3k=', 'site': 'Huatai Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622476343_1.pdf?1708507543000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622476343_1.pdf?1708507543000.pdf', 'originalTitle': \"Comments on the central bank's 5-year LPR interest rate cut: Entering the moment of risk response, pay attention to the pressure of debt on commodities\", 'originalAuthor': '徐闻宇', 'originalContent': '宏观事件中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2024年2月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.45%，5年期以上LPR为3.95%。前者较上一期保持不变，后者较上一期下降25个基点。核心观点超预期降息或预示着宏观政策进入到风险应对时刻LPR降息幅度超预期。自2021年12月以来，国内货币政策虽然处在宽松周期，但是短期的宽松幅度都较为谨慎，LPR利率单次变动均维持在5-15BP之间。2月20日5年期LPR利率25个基点的调降方向上符合市场预期，幅度上显著高于本轮宽松周期内的政策变动，显示出宽松的货币政策从此前的“谨慎”进入到发力阶段。先立后破，降息或进一步缓解债务展期压力。从2023年12月政治局会议提出“先立后破”，到2024年1月集体学习时提出“新质生产力”，中国经济结构转型的新旧动能转换到了关键时期。债务高压之下，1月城投资金仍以借新还旧为主，2月31省市投资增速和经济发展目标相比较2023年有所下调。本次超预期降息预示着“化债”到了关键时期，通过缓解化债的压力为“高质量发展”腾出政策空间，我们预计进一步降息的概率上升。关注高实际利率滞后影响，商品需求预期近弱远强高实际利率环境下，市场对降息后宽信用的效果存疑。2月20日央行宣布非对称调降5年期LPR利率后，从权益市场到信用债市场甚至工业金属市场的反馈均不甚积极，宏观政策对高利率的滞后应对，但高利率形成的债务压力却不会迟到。现代经济运行构筑于“预期”，为逆转市场的悲观预期（极致权益估值和股债比价），滞后的政策应对需要配合超预期的政策力度，2024年名义增长率的回升仍将是大概率。短期内，预计化债对于实体经济的需求仍将带来压力，关注相关高基差商品（碳酸锂等）的调整压力。风险经济数据短期波动风险，流动性快速收紧风险', 'content': 'Macro events The People\\'s Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) on February 20, 2024 is: 1-year LPR is 3.45%, and 5-year and above LPR is 3.95%. The former remained unchanged from the previous period, while the latter decreased by 25 basis points from the previous period. The core point is that the unexpected interest rate cut may indicate that macro policy has entered a risk response moment. The LPR interest rate cut is larger than expected. Since December 2021, although domestic monetary policy has been in a easing cycle, the short-term easing range has been relatively cautious, and single changes in the LPR interest rate have remained between 5-15BP. The direction of the 25 basis point cut in the 5-year LPR interest rate on February 20 was in line with market expectations, and the magnitude was significantly higher than the policy changes in this round of easing cycle, showing that the loose monetary policy has entered a new phase from the previous \"cautious\" one. The power stage. First established and then broken, interest rate cuts may further ease debt rollover pressure. From the Politburo meeting in December 2023 when the Politburo meeting proposed \"build first and then break\" to the collective study session in January 2024 when \"new quality productivity\" was proposed, the old and new driving forces of China\\'s economic structural transformation have entered a critical period. Under the high pressure of debt, city investment funds in January were still mainly borrowing new funds to repay old ones. On February 31, provincial and municipal investment growth rates and economic development targets were lowered compared with 2023. This unexpected interest rate cut indicates that the \"debt reduction\" has reached a critical period. By easing the pressure of debt reduction and freeing up policy space for \"high-quality development\", we expect that the probability of further interest rate cuts will increase. Paying attention to the lagging impact of high real interest rates, and the demand for goods is expected to be weak in the near future and strong in the far high real interest rate environment, the market has doubts about the effect of easing credit after interest rate cuts. After the central bank announced an asymmetric cut in the 5-year LPR interest rate on February 20, the feedback from the equity market to the credit bond market and even the industrial metal market was not very positive. Macroeconomic policies lagged in responding to high interest rates, but the debt formed by high interest rates Pressure but never late. The operation of the modern economy is built on \"expectations.\" In order to reverse the market\\'s pessimistic expectations (extreme equity valuations and stock-bond ratios), lagging policy responses need to be matched with policy efforts that exceed expectations. A rebound in nominal growth rate in 2024 will still be a high probability . In the short term, it is expected that the demand for chemical debt will still bring pressure to the real economy, and attention will be paid to the adjustment pressure of related high basis commodities (lithium carbonate, etc.). Risks Risks of short-term fluctuations in economic data, risks of rapid liquidity tightening', 'authorid': UUID('ea5b1c8b-2069-5763-b3d4-70c9ba8cbb24'), 'sentimentScore': -0.570799931883812, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TEEPVK2T5C74ACGAL2K5IJ370FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TEEPVK2T5C74ACGAL2K5IJ370FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('027a38ad-3727-5087-ae58-9a438826a174'), 'title': 'When the LM curve no longer moves: Regarding the reduction of LPR', 'author': 'Yang Weiqiu, Meng Zijun', 'orgName': '国元证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001043', 'orgSName': '国元证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZBlrPBFsNTsKLSYIa7Va334=', 'researcher': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000176619', '11000337831'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZBlrPBFsNTsKLSYIa7Va334=', 'site': 'Guoyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国元证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622472948_1.pdf?1708503927000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622472948_1.pdf?1708503927000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'When the LM curve no longer moves: Regarding the reduction of LPR', 'originalAuthor': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'originalContent': '这次LPR利率的调降是有的放矢的，专门调降了更长的5年期LPR，而偏短期限的1年期LPR没有动。这次LPR的调降明显压低了政策利率的期限曲线，我们猜目的有两个，一是刺激居民按揭，二是把更多信用注入需要更长期限资金的新兴产业之中。当然，这次调降LPR也经过了一些政策铺垫，比如存款利率在此前已经出现了下调，去年8月也单单调降了1年期LPR。我们认为，当前核心问题不一定是利率问题：1）这一轮自2021年始，政策利率和市场利率就只降不升，但地产销售情况一直不甚理想，靠这个幅度的利率下降去扭转地产预期，似乎很难；2）当前银行不缺资本，过剩流动性问题也体现得很充分，这说明，之前边际上对货币的价格弹性为零的实体参与者已越来越多，且多到了影响宏观状态的程度。况且，这种长期利率的定向调降若有效果，其先决条件是实体部门有货币收紧的预期，感性看，这个货币收紧的预期几乎不存在。因此，非对称降息对金融周期轨迹的效果不大，映射在大类资产上也同理，且目前股债的反应都相对平淡。后续看，可能解决流动性堵点的政策有二：一是执行充分的QE或零利率政策；二是窗口指导银行的信用下沉，这个首先要限制银行二级市场投资这条路，比如抑制债券市场不断扩张的杠杆。至于我们会走哪条路，目前还不得而知，但在政策有实质性动作之前，资产风格应该还是risk-off的，建议在流动性充分的前提下，维持利率债的高杠杆长久期。风险提示：宏观政策落地不及预期等', 'content': \"This cut in the LPR interest rate was targeted. The longer 5-year LPR was specifically lowered, while the shorter 1-year LPR remained unchanged. This LPR cut has significantly lowered the term curve of the policy interest rate. We guess it has two purposes. One is to stimulate residents' mortgages, and the other is to inject more credit into emerging industries that require longer-term funds. Of course, this LPR reduction was also paved by some policies. For example, deposit interest rates had been lowered before, and the one-year LPR was also lowered in August last year. We believe that the current core issue is not necessarily the interest rate issue: 1) Since the beginning of this round in 2021, policy interest rates and market interest rates have only fallen but not risen, but the real estate sales situation has not been ideal. Relying on this level of interest rate decline to turn around the real estate industry It seems difficult to predict; 2) At present, banks are not short of capital, and the problem of excess liquidity is also fully reflected. This shows that there are more and more physical participants whose marginal price elasticity to currency was zero before, and there are so many influence the macroscopic state. Moreover, if this directional cut in long-term interest rates is to be effective, the prerequisite is that the real sector has expectations of monetary tightening. From a perceptual perspective, this expectation of monetary tightening is almost non-existent. Therefore, asymmetric interest rate cuts have little effect on the trajectory of the financial cycle, and the same applies to major asset classes, and the current response from stocks and bonds is relatively flat. Looking forward, there are two policies that may solve the liquidity congestion point: one is to implement a full QE or zero interest rate policy; the other is to guide the bank’s credit sinking through a window. This must first limit the bank’s secondary market investment, such as inhibiting The bond market’s ever-expanding leverage. As for which path we will take, it is still unknown, but until the policy takes substantial action, the asset style should still be risk-off. It is recommended to maintain the high leverage and long-term duration of interest rate bonds on the premise of sufficient liquidity. Risk warning: The implementation of macro policies falls short of expectations, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('06a6231a-b667-541e-b1fd-3c96f32864dc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.08839872479438782, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GA6NQFF9GFTJLP6TJMGAG6FRPNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GA6NQFF9GFTJLP6TJMGAG6FRPNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('4a07b3ae-5896-57c4-b348-918ebed664f5'), 'title': 'India’s ALMM list is about to be restarted, and the export risks of photovoltaic modules under trade protectionism', 'author': 'Yang Bin', 'orgName': '海通国际证券集团有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001968', 'orgSName': '海通国际', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZH8CvoRHhrAl0BpaaRck+AA=', 'researcher': '杨斌', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000418831'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=QXYE2/TKXsr+lPAyzysJZH8CvoRHhrAl0BpaaRck+AA=', 'site': 'Haitong International Securities Group Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '海通国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622472947_1.pdf?1708526177000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402211622472947_1.pdf?1708526177000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'India’s ALMM list is about to be restarted, and the export risks of photovoltaic modules under trade protectionism', 'originalAuthor': '杨斌', 'originalContent': '印度ALMM清单或重启。2月9日，印度新能源和可再生能源部（“MNRE”）发布政令称“型号和制造商批准清单”（“ALMM”）将于2024年4月1日起重新生效，ALMM包含太阳能光伏和电池的型号和制造商清单，目前针对电池的清单还未公布。MNRE要求只有在清单中的产品型号才可用于印度政府光伏项目、政府资助或政府计划下的光伏项目以及印度政府PM KUSUM计划下的相关配套和屋顶光伏项目。尽管MNRE在2月15日发布新指令称目前ALMM将延期至新的政令发布，但地缘政策风险和贸易保护主义依然是悬在中国光伏组件出口需求头上的剑。预计77GW大型电站装机在规划中，印度光伏市场潜力较大。JMK Research数据显示，截至2023年底，印度光伏装机量约10GW，同比2022年下降28%，其中大型电站装机6.5GW，同比下降41%；屋顶光伏装机3GW，同比基本持平，另外有0.5GW的电网外项目。截至2023年9月底，印度大型电站装机有接近77GW项目在规划建设流程中，相较于2022年底的58GW增长33%，其中68GW招标中的项目等开标，印度光伏市场需求较充足，但其贸易保护主义为中国企业设置重重障碍。ALMM政策是印度光伏产业贸易保护的主要手段。“型号和制造商批准清单”（“ALMM”）是印度新能源和可再生能源部于2019年提出的旨在保护印度本土光伏组件和电池制造商的政策，在该政策下，只有符合条件的本土��造企业才能够在政府资助的光伏项目中使用，结合印度政府推出的Solar PLI计划以激励印度国内制造。截至2023年10月，ALMM中新增了16家印度本土组件厂商，清单中白名单数量至100家、30GW以上，印度组件厂商可随时为新组件产品型号或新产能申请进入清单，印度新能源和可再生能源部每季度审查更新清单。经过2023年5月的改革后，入选ALMM的产品有效期由两年提升至四年，到期后需要续费重申；申请费用下调80%，检查费用降低70%，最低转换效率要求为地面电站20%，屋顶光伏19.5%。保护政策下印度本土组件产能迅速增长，上游产能缺口较大。在印度政府的政策支持下，印度光伏制造业近两年快速发展。2020年至2023年间，印度电池和组件的名义产能增加了一倍以上，2023年印度的组件和电池名义产能分别为38和6.6GW。JMK Research预测，印度组件名义产能到2026年将达到110GW。在PLI计划下，印度政府大力支持本土制造商资本扩张，在2023年3月公布的PLI（Tranche-II）计划中，政府预计支出26亿美元，支持包括Shirdi Sai Electricals（4.01亿美元用于6000MW包括多晶硅到组件的产能）、Reliance（6000MW）、Waaree（6000MW）、ReNew（4800MW），维克拉姆太阳能公司（2400MW）和塔塔电力太阳能公司（4000MW）等。此外，美国等地区的光伏制造商瞄准“中国+1”战略，印度光伏对其他市场的出口迅速增长，促进印度光伏制造商扩产。尽管如此，印度光伏产业链中的上游零部件仍然较为依赖进口，硅片、硅料和电池片产能缺口较大。2023年中国对印度出口光伏组件达到7.6GW，ALMM下影响中国组件厂商出货。2023年，中国全年组件累计出口188.7GW，对印度出口7.6GW，占比7.6%，出口排名前三的国家为荷兰、巴西和印度。11/12月组件对印度出口达到高峰，分别为3.9/2.9GW，主要由于1）印度开发商预期今年4月开始受ALMM政策影响，预先囤货，2）国内光伏组件价格大幅下降。预计2024年第一季度中国对印度市场仍将出现大量出货。根据Mercom的印度太阳能市场排行数据显示，截至2023年上半年，隆基绿能、Waaree Energies，晶澳太阳能、晶科能源、Premier Energies分别为出货前五的组件供应商，供应占比分别为9.1%、8.9%、7.2%、6%及4.3%，其中Waaree为印度本土最大组件商之一，在古吉拉特邦拥有12GW组件产能，预计两年内将组件、电池和硅片产能扩大到20GW、12GW和6GW。投资建议：建议关注【First Solar】，其为第一家也是唯一一家获得11.78亿卢比PLI资金用于建立3400兆瓦的集成从多晶硅到组件工厂的海外公司。风险提示：1、ALMM政策延期不及预期；2、国内外政策突发重大变化。', 'content': 'India\\'s ALMM list may be restarted. On February 9, India\\'s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (\"MNRE\") issued an order stating that the \"Approval List of Models and Manufacturers\" (\"ALMM\") will be re-validated from April 1, 2024. ALMM includes solar photovoltaic and a list of battery models and manufacturers. The list of batteries has not yet been released. MNRE requires that only product models on the list can be used in Indian government photovoltaic projects, photovoltaic projects funded by the government or under government plans, and related supporting and rooftop photovoltaic projects under the Indian government\\'s PM KUSUM plan. Although MNRE issued a new directive on February 15 stating that the current ALMM will be postponed until a new government order is issued, geopolitical policy risks and trade protectionism are still swords hanging over China\\'s photovoltaic module export demand. It is estimated that 77GW of large power station installed capacity is under planning, and the Indian photovoltaic market has great potential. JMK Research data shows that as of the end of 2023, India\\'s photovoltaic installed capacity will be about 10GW, down 28% year-on-year, including 6.5GW of large power stations, down 41% year-on-year; 3GW of rooftop photovoltaic installed capacity, basically the same year-on-year, and 0.5GW of power grid installations external projects. As of the end of September 2023, there are nearly 77GW of large-scale power station installed capacity projects in India in the planning and construction process, an increase of 33% compared with 58GW at the end of 2022. Among them, 68GW of projects in the bidding process are waiting for the opening of bids. The Indian photovoltaic market demand is sufficient, but its trade Protectionism creates many obstacles for Chinese companies. The ALMM policy is the main means of trade protection for the Indian photovoltaic industry. The \"Approved List of Models and Manufacturers\" (\"ALMM\") is a policy proposed by India\\'s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy in 2019 to protect India\\'s local photovoltaic module and cell manufacturers. Under this policy, only qualified Only local manufacturing companies can be used in government-funded photovoltaic projects, combined with the Solar PLI program launched by the Indian government to encourage domestic manufacturing in India. As of October 2023, 16 local Indian component manufacturers have been added to ALMM, and the number of whitelists in the list has reached 100 and more than 30GW. Indian component manufacturers can apply for entry into the list for new component product models or new production capacities at any time. Indian New Energy and the Department of Renewable Energy review the updated list quarterly. After the reform in May 2023, the validity period of products selected for ALMM has been increased from two years to four years, and renewal is required after expiration; the application fee is reduced by 80%, the inspection fee is reduced by 70%, and the minimum conversion efficiency requirement is 20% for ground power stations. , rooftop photovoltaic 19.5%. Under the protection policy, India\\'s domestic component production capacity has grown rapidly, leaving a large gap in upstream production capacity. With the policy support of the Indian government, India\\'s photovoltaic manufacturing industry has developed rapidly in the past two years. Between 2020 and 2023, India\\'s nominal cell and module production capacity more than doubled, with India\\'s nominal module and cell production capacity in 2023 being 38 and 6.6GW respectively. JMK Research predicts that India\\'s nominal module production capacity will reach 110GW by 2026. Under the PLI plan, the Indian government strongly supports the capital expansion of local manufacturers. In the PLI (Tranche-II) plan announced in March 2023, the government is expected to spend US$2.6 billion. Support includes Shirdi Sai Electricals (US$401 million for 6000MW). Including polysilicon to module capacity), Reliance (6000MW), Waaree (6000MW), ReNew (4800MW), Vikram Solar (2400MW) and Tata Power Solar (4000MW), etc. In addition, photovoltaic manufacturers in the United States and other regions are targeting the \"China + 1\" strategy, and Indian photovoltaic exports to other markets have grown rapidly, promoting the expansion of Indian photovoltaic manufacturers. Despite this, India\\'s upstream components in the photovoltaic industry chain are still relatively dependent on imports, and there is a large production capacity gap for silicon wafers, silicon materials and cells. China\\'s photovoltaic module exports to India will reach 7.6GW in 2023, and the ALMM will affect the shipments of Chinese module manufacturers. In 2023, China\\'s total module exports for the whole year will be 188.7GW, and its exports to India will be 7.6GW, accounting for 7.6%. The top three export countries are the Netherlands, Brazil and India. Module exports to India reached a peak in November and December, at 3.9/2.9GW respectively, mainly due to 1) Indian developers expecting to be affected by the ALMM policy in April this year and stocking up in advance, and 2) domestic photovoltaic module prices falling sharply. It is expected that China will still see large shipments to the Indian market in the first quarter of 2024. According to Mercom\\'s Indian solar market ranking data, as of the first half of 2023, Longi Green Energy, Waaree Energies, JA Solar, JinkoSolar, and Premier Energies are the top five module suppliers in shipments, with supply ratios of 9.1% respectively. %, 8.9%, 7.2%, 6% and 4.3%. Waaree is one of the largest component manufacturers in India. It has 12GW component production capacity in Gujarat and is expected to expand component, cell and silicon wafer production capacity to 20GW, 12GW and 6GW within two years. . Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to [First Solar], which is the first and only overseas company to receive 1.178 billion rupees of PLI funding to establish a 3,400-megawatt integrated polysilicon to component factory. Risk warning: 1. The extension of the ALMM policy is less than expected; 2. Sudden major changes in domestic and foreign policies.', 'authorid': UUID('752b5c87-819b-5bfb-91e4-998b3b6f8734'), 'sentimentScore': -0.028152355924248695, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'E1PH208GEICI9Q9U4KCJF1SBSVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'E1PH208GEICI9Q9U4KCJF1SBSVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d3851074-904d-5493-9090-df999f74db21'), 'title': 'How to understand asymmetric interest rate cuts', 'author': 'You Chunye', 'orgName': '五矿证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000133', 'orgSName': '五矿证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-21', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuYzGUIl275Qk4mB+chteeLhw=', 'researcher': '尤春野', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000272834'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuYzGUIl275Qk4mB+chteeLhw=', 'site': 'Minmetals Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '五矿证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622450937_1.pdf?1708502120000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622450937_1.pdf?1708502120000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'How to understand asymmetric interest rate cuts', 'originalAuthor': '尤春野', 'originalContent': '事件描述2月20日央行公布2月LPR报价，1年期LPR报3.45%，与上期持平；5年期LPR报3.95%，较上期下调25bp。事件点评非对称降息旨在稳定房地产及缓解债务压力。2月份政策利率MLF并未调降，1年期LPR也未调降，但5年期LPR出现了史上最大幅度的调降，这是一次较为少见的差异较大的“非对称降息”。我们对这次降息有以下解读：第一，降息旨在稳定房地产及缓解债务压力。本次非对称降息的主要目的一是刺激居民的购房意愿，缓解房地产行业需求端的压力；二是降低制造业和基建长期贷款的融资成本，且能缓解存量债务压力，因为很多存量债务利率也会陆续随LPR调降。不过从此前5年期LPR调降的结果来看，其对居民购房需求的拉动有限。本次降息对购房需求的刺激效果有待于未来进一步观察。第二，汇率可能仍对货币政策有一定制约。2月MLF未调降，我们认为这其中可能有“保汇率”的考量。因为MLF对金融市场的利率的影响较大，MLF不降息使得金融市场利率整体下行的幅度有限，这客观上有助于维持汇率的稳定。近期美国国债收益率再度上行，对人民币汇率的潜在压力重现。我们认为“非对称降息”是权衡“稳增长”和“保汇率”之后的折中选择。第三，此前的货币政策调整已经为此次降息做出了铺垫。2023年12月各大银行存款利率纷纷下调，2024年1月央行实施全面降准，这些举措都降低了银行负债端的压力，为LPR的调降创造了条件。去年整体上1年期LPR下调20bp，5年期LPR下调10bp，所以本次5年期LPR单独调降也有一定“补偿性”。更多的宽松仍在路上。本次5年期LPR下调25bp，幅度较大，但我们认为中国货币政策宽松的周期并未停止，预计未来还会有进一步的降准及降息。第一，中国经济的压力在短期内难以完全消除。当前中国经济正处于转型期，房地产对于中国经济的贡献正在快速下滑，高技术制造业等新动能尚未培育完成，中国经济正从“债务驱动型”转向“创新驱动型”。这一变化是中周期级别的，而非短期可以结束。这一大的背景决定了中国利率中枢仍将下行。第二，中国通胀水平过低，需要货币政策继续发力。虽然中国推出了一系列稳增长的政策，但“需求不足”及随之而来的低通胀问题仍然未得到根本性扭转。中国1月CPI同比下降0.8%，PPI同比下降2.5%，均处于负值区间。低通胀的结果是企业和居民的名义收入增长缓慢，以及实际利率过高。所以货币政策需要进一步宽松以降低实际利率、提升通胀水平，促进经济回归正常化。第三，美联储货币政策转向在即，中国货币政策操作空间更大。从美联储1月会议及近期一系列官员讲话来看，美联储加息周期大概率已经终止，年内会实施数次降息。我们预计美联储可能在6月首次降息。此前央行行长潘功胜指出，“中美货币政策周期差处于收敛，这样一种外部环境变化，客观上有利于增强中国货币政策操作的自主性，拓展货币政策操作的空间。”这也就意味着，美联储转向之后，中国货币政策宽松的理由也更加充分。风险提示：1、降息效果低于预期；2、美联储降息时点晚于预期。', 'content': 'Event description: On February 20, the central bank announced the February LPR quotation. The 1-year LPR was quoted at 3.45%, the same as the previous period; the 5-year LPR was quoted at 3.95%, 25bp lower than the previous period. Event Comments Asymmetric interest rate cuts are aimed at stabilizing real estate and alleviating debt pressure. The policy rate MLF was not lowered in February, nor was the 1-year LPR. However, the 5-year LPR saw the largest reduction in history. This was a rare \"asymmetric interest rate cut\" with a large difference. We have the following interpretations of this interest rate cut: First, the interest rate cut aims to stabilize real estate and ease debt pressure. The main purpose of this asymmetric interest rate cut is to firstly stimulate residents\\' willingness to buy houses and ease the pressure on the demand side of the real estate industry; secondly, to reduce the financing costs of long-term loans for manufacturing and infrastructure construction, and to alleviate the pressure on existing debt, because many existing debt interest rates will also It has been gradually lowered along with the LPR. However, judging from the results of the previous five-year LPR reduction, its impact on residents\\' demand for home purchases is limited. The stimulating effect of this interest rate cut on home purchase demand remains to be further observed in the future. Second, the exchange rate may still impose constraints on monetary policy. The MLF was not lowered in February, and we believe this may be due to the consideration of “protecting the exchange rate.” Because the MLF has a greater impact on interest rates in the financial market, the failure of the MLF to cut interest rates will limit the overall decline in interest rates in the financial market, which objectively helps maintain the stability of the exchange rate. Recently, U.S. Treasury bond yields have risen again, and potential pressure on the RMB exchange rate has reappeared. We believe that \"asymmetric interest rate cuts\" are a compromise choice after weighing \"stabilizing growth\" and \"maintaining exchange rates.\" Third, previous monetary policy adjustments have paved the way for this interest rate cut. In December 2023, the deposit interest rates of major banks were reduced one after another, and in January 2024, the central bank implemented a comprehensive reduction in required reserve ratios. These measures have reduced the pressure on the liability side of banks and created conditions for the reduction of LPR. Last year, the 1-year LPR was reduced by 20bp as a whole, and the 5-year LPR was reduced by 10bp. Therefore, the separate reduction of the 5-year LPR this time is also \"compensatory\". More easing is still on the way. This time the 5-year LPR has been reduced by 25bp, which is relatively large, but we believe that China’s monetary policy easing cycle has not stopped, and it is expected that there will be further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in the future. First, the pressure on China’s economy cannot be completely eliminated in the short term. China\\'s economy is currently in a period of transformation. The contribution of real estate to China\\'s economy is declining rapidly. New driving forces such as high-tech manufacturing have not yet been cultivated. China\\'s economy is shifting from \"debt-driven\" to \"innovation-driven.\" This change is at the mid-cycle level and cannot be ended in the short term. This general background determines that China\\'s interest rate center will still fall. Second, China’s inflation level is too low and monetary policy needs to continue to be vigorous. Although China has launched a series of policies to stabilize growth, the problem of \"insufficient demand\" and the resulting low inflation has not been fundamentally reversed. China\\'s CPI fell by 0.8% year-on-year in January, and PPI fell by 2.5% year-on-year, both in negative territory. The result of low inflation is slow nominal income growth for businesses and residents, and too high real interest rates. Therefore, monetary policy needs to be further loosened to lower real interest rates, increase inflation levels, and promote economic normalization. Third, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy shift is imminent, giving China greater room for monetary policy manipulation. Judging from the Federal Reserve\\'s January meeting and a series of recent official speeches, the Fed\\'s interest rate hike cycle has most likely ended, and several interest rate cuts will be implemented during the year. We expect the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time in June. Previously, Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng pointed out, \"The cyclical differences between China and the United States\\' monetary policies are converging. Such a change in the external environment is objectively conducive to enhancing China\\'s autonomy in monetary policy operations and expanding the space for monetary policy operations.\" This also means that , after the Fed’s turn, China’s reasons for easing monetary policy have become more abundant. Risk warning: 1. The effect of the interest rate cut is lower than expected; 2. The timing of the Fed\\'s interest rate cut is later than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('46773c39-b9dc-5860-883e-97ccc48708db'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7855286002159119, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'I0O6BFOM28JI9I2PL8QV31IR57VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:15:54 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'I0O6BFOM28JI9I2PL8QV31IR57VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('128d3217-83a6-5b3c-8f78-4e3e9772f9b2'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: Domestic positive signals increase, and the road to deflation in the United States is not smooth', 'author': 'Li Ting, Huang Lei, Gao Hui, Wang Gongjian', 'orgName': '金源期货', 'orgCode': '80055522', 'orgSName': '金源期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY9D3tuNzfQ2KCXOvMFcBO9U=', 'researcher': '李���,黄蕾,高慧,王工建', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000207840', '11000210457', '11000428834', '11000369911'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY9D3tuNzfQ2KCXOvMFcBO9U=', 'site': 'Jinyuan Futures', 'originalSite': '金源期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622446406_1.pdf?1708460124000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622446406_1.pdf?1708460124000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: Domestic positive signals increase, and the road to deflation in the United States is not smooth', 'originalAuthor': '李婷,黄蕾,高慧,王工建', 'originalContent': '核心观点海外方面，美国1月CPI全面超预期，CPI最新权重增加了住房价格的比重，而住房项是本次CPI超预期的重要推手。与此同时，剔除住房的超级核心服务通胀环比、同比均大幅上涨，引发市场对于去通胀不顺的担忧，而1月零售销售在假期消退后呈降温迹象。假期期间，通胀超预期叠加联储官员偏鹰，市场预期首次降息时点推迟至6月，10Y美债曾破4.3%，美元指数仍在104上方震荡，关注联储官员讲话及月末PCE数据。国内方面，龙年春节出行流量创新历史高，服务消费较好，地产依旧偏弱。1月社融超预期呈现“开门红”，结构也有所改善，主要由企业债、非标提振；信贷方面，企业、居民中长贷边际转好，表明实体融资意愿增强。1月物价数据在春节错位下再次探底，但CPI、PPI新涨价因素均呈现反弹迹象，代表内生需求出现积极信号。货币政策方面，2月MLF超额平价续作5000亿元，意在稳汇率，但结合此前央行多次释放积极信号、地产低迷的背景下，2月下调LPR利率仍然较大。风险因素：国内政策不及预期，地缘政治冲突加剧，美国经济衰退超预期。', 'content': 'Core Viewpoints Overseas, the U.S. CPI in January exceeded expectations across the board. The latest weight of CPI increased the proportion of housing prices, and the housing item was an important driver of this CPI exceeding expectations. At the same time, super core service inflation excluding housing rose sharply both month-on-month and year-on-year, raising concerns about the failure of de-inflation, while retail sales in January showed signs of cooling after the holidays subsided. During the holidays, inflation exceeded expectations and Federal Reserve officials were hawkish. The market expected the first interest rate cut to be postponed to June. The 10Y U.S. Treasury bond once exceeded 4.3%. The U.S. dollar index still fluctuated above 104. Pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials and the PCE data at the end of the month. Domestically, during the Spring Festival in the Year of the Dragon, travel traffic reached a record high, service consumption was good, and real estate remained weak. In January, social financing exceeded expectations and showed a \"good start\", and the structure has also improved, mainly boosted by corporate bonds and non-standard loans; in terms of credit, the margins of medium and long-term loans for enterprises and residents have improved, indicating that entities are more willing to finance. Price data in January bottomed out again due to the Spring Festival dislocation, but new price increases in CPI and PPI showed signs of rebound, representing positive signals of endogenous demand. In terms of monetary policy, the MLF excess parity renewal in February was 500 billion yuan, which was intended to stabilize the exchange rate. However, combined with the previous positive signals released by the central bank and the real estate downturn, the cut in the LPR interest rate in February was still large. Risk factors: Domestic policies fall short of expectations, geopolitical conflicts intensify, and the U.S. economic recession exceeds expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('031c3f63-fc61-5961-a12a-0ada8999feda'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8227476328611374, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'HLJR15BLRN7MLKGDASB1TO6BENVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:16:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'HLJR15BLRN7MLKGDASB1TO6BENVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7e21c9cf-cda4-507f-8162-610dfc21c51a'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic special report: LPR lowered by 25 basis points over 5 years', 'author': 'Liu Yang', 'orgName': '格林大华期货', 'orgCode': '80069367', 'orgSName': '格林期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY9/GxL1c+DasjEAM+I2EeLI=', 'researcher': '刘洋', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000284232'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY9/GxL1c+DasjEAM+I2EeLI=', 'site': 'Green Dahua Futures', 'originalSite': '格林期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622445591_1.pdf?1708459462000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622445591_1.pdf?1708459462000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic special report: LPR lowered by 25 basis points over 5 years', 'originalAuthor': '刘洋', 'originalContent': '摘要今天公布的本月贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.45%，保持不变；5年期以上LPR下调25个基点至3.95%。5年期以上LPR上一次调整是2023年6月20日，从4.3%下调10个基点至4.2%，当时10年期国债的到期收益率是2.67%，最新的10年期国债到期收益率在2.44%。2023年四季度，新发放贷款加权平均利率为3.83%，单季回落31bp，而前三季度表现持平。所以去年下半年以来商业银行两大主要资金投向贷款和国债的中长端利率均已实际下行，本次5年期以上LPR的下行实际是相对落后的。本次5年期以上LPR的下行对商业银行的利差有不利的影响，但之前已有对冲措施实施。去年12月五大行宣布降低人民币存款利率，三年期和五年期均下调25个基点，与上一轮2023年9月降息类似，存款期限越长下调幅度越大。这样商业银行资金成本已提前调降，同时也体现了资金期限一定程度的匹配。央行还于2月5日下调存款准备金率0.5个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，降准可以使商业银行增加低成本的长期可用资金，有利于商业银行增加收益。本次5年期以上LPR的下行有利促进消费和投资，特别是直接有利于推动居民房贷利率下行。央行《2023年第四季度货币政策执行报告》中指出，货币政策要合理把握债券与信贷两个最大融资市场的关系，引导信贷合理增长、均衡投放，进一步完善贷款市场报价利率形成机制，发挥存款利率市场化调整机制作用，促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降。年内商业银行的存款利率和LPR利率存在进一步下调的可能。', 'content': 'Summary The loan market quoted interest rates (LPR) announced today are: 1-year LPR is 3.45%, unchanged; 5-year and above LPR is reduced by 25 basis points to 3.95%. The last adjustment of the LPR over 5 years was on June 20, 2023, which was reduced by 10 basis points from 4.3% to 4.2%. At that time, the yield to maturity of the 10-year government bond was 2.67%. The latest yield to maturity of the 10-year government bond The rate is 2.44%. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the weighted average interest rate of newly issued loans was 3.83%, a drop of 31bp in a single quarter, while the performance in the first three quarters was flat. Therefore, since the second half of last year, the medium and long-term interest rates of loans and government bonds, the two main funds invested by commercial banks, have actually declined. The decline of LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years this time is actually relatively lagging behind. The current decline in LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years has an adverse impact on the interest rate spreads of commercial banks, but hedging measures have been implemented before. In December last year, the five major banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit interest rates, with both three-year and five-year interest rates reduced by 25 basis points. Similar to the previous round of interest rate cuts in September 2023, the longer the deposit period, the greater the reduction. In this way, the capital costs of commercial banks have been reduced in advance, and it also reflects a certain degree of matching of funding periods. The central bank also lowered the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points on February 5, providing the market with long-term liquidity of about 1 trillion yuan. The RRR cut can enable commercial banks to increase low-cost long-term funds available, which will help commercial banks increase their profits. This decline in LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years is beneficial to promote consumption and investment, and is especially directly beneficial to the decline in residential mortgage interest rates. The central bank\\'s \"Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2023\" pointed out that monetary policy should reasonably grasp the relationship between the two largest financing markets, bonds and credit, guide the reasonable growth and balanced release of credit, further improve the loan market quotation rate formation mechanism, and give full play to deposits. The market-based adjustment mechanism for interest rates has promoted the stabilization and decline of comprehensive social financing costs. There is a possibility that the deposit interest rate and LPR interest rate of commercial banks will be further reduced during the year.', 'authorid': UUID('523fea45-5d65-507a-bbc0-d0cfeff42c97'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8270087447017431, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KTK4BN2N3O0120JR2RDNI2GS1VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:16:19 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KTK4BN2N3O0120JR2RDNI2GS1VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('bdd2cc38-9780-517a-9b8f-96b120d2f765'), 'title': 'China’s LPR for five years and above is cut by 25 basis points', 'author': 'Yao Shaohua, Ou Yuheng, Zhou Xiucheng, Pan Hongxing', 'orgName': '农银国际证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80180327', 'orgSName': '农银国际证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuYwRBRsOirP16sA79Mgn1tYw=', 'researcher': '姚少华,欧宇恒,周秀成,潘泓兴', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000253246', '11000193355', '11000245636', '11000179049'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuYwRBRsOirP16sA79Mgn1tYw=', 'site': 'ABC International Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '农银国际证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622421221_1.pdf?1708457644000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622421221_1.pdf?1708457644000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'China’s LPR for five years and above is cut by 25 basis points', 'originalAuthor': '姚少华,欧宇恒,周秀成,潘泓兴', 'originalContent': '2月20日周二，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2024年2月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.45%，与1月持平；5年期以上LPR为3.95%，较1月下调25个基点（图1）。本次5年期以上LPR单次降息幅度为LPR创立来最大，此前，中国5年期以上LPR已连续7个月保持不变，1年期LPR连续5个月持稳。本次人民银行实行的非对称降息体现了央行在稳汇率和稳增长之间取得平衡。1年期LPR保持不变体现了央行稳定人民币汇率的意图。当前人民币兑美元的在岸及离岸现货价在7.20左右，人民币兑美元的贬值压力仍不小。理论上，一国汇率的即期水平受较短期利率影响更大。相比5年期以上LPR，1年期LPR对人民币汇率的影响更大。此次虽然5年期以上LPR下调25个基点，但1年期LPR保持不变，对人民币汇率形成的贬值的压力相对轻微。此外，2024年2月18日人民银行开展5000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，中标利率为2.5%，与1月持平。1年期LPR利率一般由1年期的MLF利率与银行加点形成，本月MLF利率持稳上月，因此本月1年期LPR定价基础未产生变化。另一方面，本次5年期以上LPR下调25个基点，反映央行稳增长的意图。本次5年期以上LPR报价下调，将拉动居民房贷利率和企业中长期贷款利率的下调，有助于改善房地产销售以及企业的投资需求。当前房地产市场仍低迷，新房的市场需求十分疲弱。根据克而瑞地产研究数据，2024年1月前100大房企仅实现销售操盘金额2350.6亿元，同比降低34.2%，环比降低47.9%，单月业绩规模创近年新低。此次调降5年期以上LPR幅度达到25基点，表明央行稳房地产市场的决心。此外，从商业银行的负债成本看，前段时间主要银行连续下调中长期存款利率。1月25日，人民银行下调了再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点，2月5日，人民银行实施全面降准0.5个百分点，释放约1万亿元中长期低成本资金，这些政策措施有效降低了银行中长期负债成本，为此次5年期以上LPR下调创造了条件。展望未来，由于当前物价水平仍偏低，实体经济实际融资成本仍较高，加上美联储将开启降息周期，我们预期人民银行在2024年余下时间将继续下调基准利率。我们预计2024年年底1年期与5年期LPR的利率水平分别下调至3.25%及3.70%。', 'content': \"On Tuesday, February 20, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) on February 20, 2024 is: 1-year LPR is 3.45%, the same as January; 5-year and above The LPR was 3.95%, 25 basis points lower than in January (Figure 1). This single interest rate cut for the LPR over 5 years is the largest since the creation of the LPR. Previously, China's LPR over 5 years has remained unchanged for 7 consecutive months, and the 1-year LPR has remained stable for 5 consecutive months. The asymmetric interest rate cut implemented by the People's Bank of China reflects the central bank's efforts to strike a balance between stabilizing the exchange rate and stabilizing growth. The 1-year LPR remaining unchanged reflects the central bank's intention to stabilize the RMB exchange rate. The current onshore and offshore spot price of RMB against the U.S. dollar is around 7.20, and the pressure for RMB to depreciate against the U.S. dollar is still considerable. In theory, the spot level of a country's exchange rate is more affected by shorter-term interest rates. Compared with the LPR of more than 5 years, the 1-year LPR has a greater impact on the RMB exchange rate. Although the LPR over five years was reduced by 25 basis points this time, the one-year LPR remained unchanged, which put relatively little depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate. In addition, the People's Bank of China launched a 500 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation on February 18, 2024, and the winning interest rate was 2.5%, the same as in January. The 1-year LPR interest rate is generally formed by the 1-year MLF interest rate and bank points. The MLF interest rate this month remained stable last month, so the pricing basis of the 1-year LPR has not changed this month. On the other hand, this time the LPR of more than 5 years was lowered by 25 basis points, reflecting the central bank’s intention to stabilize growth. This reduction in LPR quotations with a maturity of more than 5 years will drive down the interest rates of residential mortgage loans and medium- and long-term corporate loans, which will help improve real estate sales and corporate investment needs. The current real estate market is still sluggish, and the market demand for new homes is very weak. According to CRIC Real Estate research data, the top 100 real estate companies only achieved sales of 235.06 billion yuan in January 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 34.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 47.9%. The scale of single-month performance hit a new low in recent years. This reduction of LPR over five years to 25 basis points shows the central bank's determination to stabilize the real estate market. In addition, judging from the liability costs of commercial banks, major banks have successively lowered medium and long-term deposit interest rates some time ago. On January 25, the People's Bank of China lowered the re-lending and re-discount rates by 0.25 percentage points. On February 5, the People's Bank of China implemented a comprehensive reduction of 0.5 percentage points in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in medium and long-term low-cost funds. These policies and measures are effective. This has reduced the cost of banks' medium and long-term liabilities, creating conditions for this reduction of LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years. Looking forward, as the current price level is still low, the real financing cost of the real economy is still high, and the Federal Reserve will start an interest rate cutting cycle, we expect the People's Bank of China to continue to lower the benchmark interest rate in the rest of 2024. We predict that the interest rates of 1-year and 5-year LPR will be reduced to 3.25% and 3.70% respectively by the end of 2024.\", 'authorid': UUID('97d8aa29-25f6-5701-805a-54aea8825867'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8889315724372864, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'LUM23FM03PD5KITRH2F5QUIKBRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:16:21 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'LUM23FM03PD5KITRH2F5QUIKBRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('17ab6bce-4792-59d0-8ca4-6a41383a5b59'), 'title': 'Comments on the interest rate cut in February 2024: Asymmetric interest rate cut: stabilizing growth, stabilizing real estate, and helping to resolve debt', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Ma Jieying', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuYxwj2GfKd55nsszi+OvH/M8=', 'researcher': '赵伟,马洁莹', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000342031'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuYxwj2GfKd55nsszi+OvH/M8=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622420917_1.pdf?1708457080000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622420917_1.pdf?1708457080000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on the interest rate cut in February 2024: Asymmetric interest rate cut: stabilizing growth, stabilizing real estate, and helping to resolve debt', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,马洁莹', 'originalContent': '事件：2月20日，1年期LPR持平于3.45%，5年期LPR下调25BP至3.95%。5年期LPR超预期下调，进一步释放稳增长信号、缓解存量债务压力等非对称降息，5年期LPR超预期下调25BP、1年期LPR未变。月中MLF利率未动的情况下，LPR时隔两年再度开启非对称下调，此前两次分别为2021年12月和2022年5月。其中，1年期LPR持平于3.45%，5年期LPR超预期下调25BP至3.95%、降幅为历史���高，此前下调幅度多在5BP至15BP之间。5年期LPR超预期下调，进一步释放“稳增长”信号。实体需求修复平缓自去年以来已有体现、尤其是地产景气延续回落。年初高频数据也能体现，30大中城市开年前50天商品房销售面积1010万平方米、较此前4年均值减少4成以上。5年期LPR、作为中长贷定价的锚，下调或进一步降低购房贷款成本。除释放部分领域“稳”信号外，长端LPR下调也有助于缓解存量债务压力、刺激需求等。根据LPR定价框架，存量贷款多会在1年内跟随LPR调整，缓解企业、城投平台等存量债务压力。相较存量贷款，LPR下调或直接带动基建、制造业等新增中长贷融资成本回落，例如，2022年以来，5年期LPR累计下调70BP，贷款加权利率随之回落超90BP。“稳增长三步走”进行时，债市潜在风险或在累积、股市市场情绪有望延续改善“稳增长三步走”进行时，对于经济的支撑效果有望逐步显现。2023年四季度以来，稳增长措施有序推进，依次包括：“财政端”万亿国债项目落地，“准财政端”PSL放量、助力地产“三大工程”加速布局，“地方”加快重大项目积极部署等。伴随稳增长项目落地实施等，2024年经济将“先升后稳”、稳步修复。债市或又到十字路口，潜在风险或在累积。短期来看，资金分层、非银资金利率下行空间有限下，机构杠杆行为依然突出、隔夜质押回购成交占比一度超90%，警惕市场情绪反复等。中期来看，“稳增长三步走”逐步落地过程中的经济修复，导致债市利空的因素也在累积（详情参见《债市，又到十字路口》、《从机构行为，看债市“隐忧”》）。权益市场，市场估值水平均处于历史低位，随着基本面筑底改善、“雪球”等风险相继释放等，市场情绪有望持续改善。中短期关注两条宏观逻辑链：1、“经济预期修复”相关逻辑链；2、“流动性冲击缓释”相关逻辑链（详情参见《2月展望，行至水穷处？》）。风险提示政策落地效果不及预期，疫情反复。', 'content': 'Event: On February 20, the 1-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.45%, and the 5-year LPR was lowered by 25BP to 3.95%. The 5-year LPR was lowered than expected, further releasing a signal of stabilizing growth and easing the pressure on existing debt and other asymmetric interest rate cuts. The 5-year LPR was lowered by 25 BP more than expected, and the 1-year LPR was unchanged. With the MLF interest rate unchanged in the middle of the month, the LPR started an asymmetric reduction again after two years. The previous two times were in December 2021 and May 2022. Among them, the 1-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.45%, and the 5-year LPR was lowered by 25 BP to 3.95% than expected, the largest decrease in history. The previous reductions were mostly between 5 BP and 15 BP. The 5-year LPR was lowered beyond expectations, further releasing a \"stable growth\" signal. The steady recovery of physical demand has been reflected since last year, especially the real estate boom continues to decline. High-frequency data at the beginning of the year can also reflect that the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium-sized cities in the first 50 days was 10.1 million square meters, a decrease of more than 40% from the average of the previous four years. The 5-year LPR, as the anchor for medium and long-term loan pricing, has been lowered or further reduced the cost of home purchase loans. In addition to releasing \"stability\" signals in some areas, the long-term LPR reduction will also help alleviate existing debt pressure and stimulate demand. According to the LPR pricing framework, most existing loans will follow the LPR adjustment within one year to alleviate the pressure on existing debts of enterprises, urban investment platforms, etc. Compared with existing loans, LPR reductions may directly drive down the financing costs of new medium and long-term loans in infrastructure, manufacturing and other industries. For example, since 2022, the 5-year LPR has been reduced by 70 BP cumulatively, and the loan-weighted interest rate has subsequently dropped by more than 90 BP. As the \"three-step process to stabilize growth\" proceeds, potential risks in the bond market may accumulate, and stock market sentiment is expected to continue to improve. As the \"three-step process to stabilize growth\" proceeds, the supporting effect on the economy is expected to gradually emerge. Since the fourth quarter of 2023, measures to stabilize growth have been advanced in an orderly manner, including: the implementation of trillion-dollar treasury bond projects on the \"fiscal end\", the expansion of PSL on the \"quasi-fiscal end\" and the acceleration of the layout of the \"three major real estate projects\", and the acceleration of major projects on the \"local\" side. Active deployment, etc. With the implementation of stabilizing growth projects, the economy will \"first rise and then stabilize\" and steadily recover in 2024. The bond market may be at a crossroads again, and potential risks may be accumulating. In the short term, under the stratification of funds and the limited downward space for non-bank capital interest rates, institutional leverage behavior is still prominent, the proportion of overnight pledged repurchase transactions once exceeded 90%, and we are wary of repeated market sentiments. In the medium term, as the economy recovers during the gradual implementation of the \"Three Steps to Stabilize Growth\", negative factors for the bond market are also accumulating (for details, see \"Bond Market, Again at a Crossroads\" and \"Looking at the Bond Market from Institutional Behavior\" \"Hidden worries\"). In the equity market, market valuation levels are at historically low levels. As fundamentals improve and \"snowball\" and other risks are released, market sentiment is expected to continue to improve. In the short and medium term, we should pay attention to two macro logic chains: 1. The logic chain related to \"restoration of economic expectations\"; 2. The logic chain related to \"mitigation of liquidity shocks\" (for details, see \"February Outlook, reaching the end of the road?\"). The implementation of risk warning policies has not been as effective as expected, and the epidemic has recurred.', 'authorid': UUID('65b4787f-7726-5182-b084-4d4dd0fd8474'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9008889049291611, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'M0PLG5UF9FKEA1A2KCIKJCC603VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:16:24 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'M0PLG5UF9FKEA1A2KCIKJCC603VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('edcf61fe-aa4e-5fe2-9265-a35f6e68ce85'), 'title': 'Comments on LPR quotation in February 2024: Increase the step length of interest rate cuts and reduce the actual interest rate', 'author': 'Cheng Qiang', 'orgName': '德邦证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000217', 'orgSName': '德邦证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY01LiqUTP8vC9mAIys7YkDo=', 'researcher': '程强', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000296632'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY01LiqUTP8vC9mAIys7YkDo=', 'site': 'Debon Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '德邦证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622420833_1.pdf?1708456831000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622420833_1.pdf?1708456831000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on LPR quotation in February 2024: Increase the step length of interest rate cuts and reduce the actual interest rate', 'originalAuthor': '程强', 'originalContent': '事件：中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2024年2月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.45%（前值3.45%），5年期以上LPR为3.95%（前值4.20%）。实际利率偏高，降息存在必要性：从当前经济运行来看，总需求偏弱问题依然制约增长动能，稳增长仍需持续发力。我们在前期外发的专题报告《实际利率之辨》中讨论过，我国实际利率从2021年四季度开始上升，已达到高位水平，较高的实际利率给企业经营造成一定压力，企业盈利能力不足、实际融资成本较高，因此对降低实际融资成本有诉求。通过降低融资成本缓解实体企业经营压力、改善盈利、提振投资意愿或是对标中长期贷款利率的5年期以上LPR降息的核心考量。本次5年期以上LPR调降25bps，是LPR报价机制调整以来最大单次降息幅度，央行引导金融支持实体的意愿较强，同样在《实际利率之辨》中我们提出若单次降息步长能够提升则将对压降实际利率、增强经济活力有重要积极意义，本次LPR调降力度超预期，实际利率偏高问题有望加快缓解。存款利率下调、降准、结构性工具降息释放LPR降息空间：从LPR报价机制来看，推动LPR报价下调需要降低银行负债端成本，从而释放银行资产端的降息空间。2023年11-12月存款利率调降、2024年1月支农支小再贷款、再贴现降息等都对银行负债端成本起到了压降的作用，商业银行逐步积累了LPR报价下调的动力，至2024年2月降准落地后达到商业银行降低LPR报价的阈值，5年期以上LPR适时下调以实现金融支持实体经济，银行让利助力实体企业融资成本下降。理顺市场利率与政策利率、贷款利率与债券收益率的关系：以往部分观点认为LPR报价利率与MLF挂钩，但近年来LPR与MLF变化经常并不保持一致。从央行表述来看，在2023年10月底中央金融工作会议结束后，11月央行货币政策司曾发专栏文章《持续深化利率市场化改革》，其中明确指出“健全‘市场利率+央行引导→LPR→贷款利率’和‘LPR+国债收益率→存款利率’的利率传导机制”，即从逻辑链条上，LPR与MLF并不具有直接的关联，MLF的调整能够影响市场利率，间接对LPR产生影响，中间还要考虑“央行引导”这一步骤的作用，因此单月MLF调整LPR不变或MLF不变LPR调整也都属于合理现象。在2023年第四季度货币政策执行报告中，央行指出“理顺贷款利率与债券收益率等市场利率的关系”，这意味着债券收益率未来也可能成为作为贷款利率基准的LPR报价调整的参考系，自2023年12月以来，作为债券收益率定价基准的1年期和10年期国债收益率大幅下降，若贷款利率保持相对刚性，一方面企业贷款需求可能减少，企业转向债券融资；另一方面在银行等金融机构风险偏好较低的情况下，信贷投放也可能集中在国企、城投等，中小企业贷款需求可能难以充分满足，这可能是央行新提法的考量所在。MLF、OMO不变可能包含防范金融空转的考虑：除了理顺市场利率与政策利率、贷款利率与债券收益率的关系的考量以外，本次LPR单独调节、MLF、OMO保持不变或也有出于防范金融空转的考虑。节前一段时间，权益市场大幅波动，市场风险偏好快速下降，债市迎来一波快牛行情，长短端国债收益率均大幅下降，30年期超长债更是备受青睐，在这样的金融市场条件下，若再进行MLF和OMO的降息，进一步降低短期资金利率，大概率将提升债市的加杠杆热情，吸引更多资金涌入超长债，导致机构久期拉长，加剧金融体系的脆弱性，这与当前金融工作“防风险”的关注点不符，因此在当前金融环境下MLF、OMO降息短期内或难以期待。保持政策利好的循序渐进、持续落地或是2月成为降息时点的原因：从稳增长的角度看，LPR降息对实体企业、对居民有直接利好，相比MLF、OMO和结构性货币政策工具降息是更加有力的稳增长措施，但为何2023年下半年5年期以上LPR调降幅度低于1年期LPR，而本次5年期以上LPR单次调降25bps创最大降幅，我们认为这或是出于央行保持货币政策宽松的循序渐进、保持积极的政策信号持续释放的考虑。在2023年下半年，5年期以上LPR没有跟随1年期LPR第二次调降的主要原因或是当时正酝酿存量房贷利率调整，对居民而言这是一大政策利好，将有效降低居民房贷负担，释放投资和消费潜力；对商业银行而言存量房贷利率调整也将导致其利息收入减少、净息差下降，当时保持5年期以上LPR不变也可以给银行留出空间支持存量房贷利率调整工作。而当前已不存在类似情况，在此时调降5年期以上LPR能够提振居民购房意愿，对稳定房地产市场有积极意义。LPR降息后商业银行净息差压力或仍需存款降息加以对冲：在居民端5年期以上LPR主要对标房贷利率，房贷是居民中长期贷款的主要组成部分，截止2024年1月，这类贷款余额在60万亿，以这一余额测算，本次5年期以上LPR调降25bps在下次房贷利率重定价日（一般在每年1月1日）将导致银行年利息收入降低1500亿左右，对银行净息差造成一定压力，目前平衡商业银行净息差主要是通过对定期存款降息，本次5年期以上LPR调降缺口或需商业银行后续对定期存款降息10bps加以平衡，但由于房贷重定价的滞后性，未来存款降息也需考虑到年内后续可能的增量货币政策的影响。风险提示：（1）货币政策变化超预期；（2）人民币汇率波动风险；（3）金融市场波动风险。', 'content': '事件：中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2024年2月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.45%（前值3.45%），5年期以上LPR为3.95%（前值4.20%）。实际利率偏高，降息存在必要性：从当前经济运行来看，总需求偏弱问题依然制约增长动能，稳增长仍需持续发力。我们在前期外发的专题报告《实际利率之辨》中讨论过，我国实际利率从2021年四季度开始上升，已达到高位水平，较高的实际利率给企业经营造成一定压力，企业盈利能力不足、实际融资成本较高，因此对降低实际融资成本有诉求。通过降低融资成本缓解实体企业经营压力、改善盈利、提振投资意愿或是对标中长期贷款利率的5年期以上LPR降息的核心考量。本次5年期以上LPR调降25bps，是LPR报价机制调整以来最大单次降息幅度，央行引导金融支持实体的意愿较强，同样在《实际利率之辨》中我们提出若单次降息步长能够提升则将对压降实际利率、增强经济活力有重要积极意义，本次LPR调降力度超预期，实际利率偏高问题有望加快缓解。存款利率下调、降准、结构性工具降息释放LPR降息空间：从LPR报价机制来看，推动LPR报价下调需要降低银行负债端成本，从而释放银行资产端的降息空间。2023年11-12月存款利率调降、2024年1月支农支小再贷款、再贴现降息等都对银行负债端成本起到了压降的作用，商业银行逐步积累了LPR报价下调的动力，至2024年2月降准落地后达到商业银行降低LPR报价的阈值，5年期以上LPR适时下调以实现金融支持实体经济，银行让利助力实体企业融资成本下降。理顺市场利率与政策利率、贷款利率与债券收益率的关系：以往部分观点认为LPR报价利率与MLF挂钩，但近年来LPR与MLF变化经常并不保持一致。从央行表述来看，在2023年10月底中央金融工作会议结束后，11月央行货币政策司曾发专栏文章《持续深化利率市场化改革》，其中明确指出“健全‘市场利率+央行引导→LPR→贷款利率’和‘LPR+国债收益率→存款利率’的利率传导机制”，即从逻辑链条上，LPR与MLF并不具有直接的关联，MLF的调整能够影响市场利率，间接对LPR产生影响，中间还要考虑“央行引导”这一步骤的作用，因此单月MLF调整LPR不变或MLF不变LPR调整也都属于合理现象。在2023年第四季度货币政策执行报告中，央行指出“理顺贷款利率与债券收益率等市场利率的关系”，这意味着债券收益率未来也可能成为作为贷款利率基准的LPR报价调整的参考系，自2023年12月以来，作为债券收益率定价基准的1年期和10年期国债收益率大幅下降，若贷款利率保持相对刚性，一方面企业贷款需求可能减少，企业转向债券融资；另一方面在银行等金融机构风险偏好较低的情况下，信贷投放也可能集中在国企、城投等，中小企业贷款需求可能难以充分满足，这可能是央行新提法的考量所在。MLF、OMO不变可能包含防范金融空转的考虑：除了理顺市场利率与政策利率、贷款利率与债券收益率的关系的考量以外，本次LPR单独调节、MLF、OMO保持不变或也有出于防范金融空转的考虑。节前一段时间，权益市场大幅波动，市场风险偏好快速下降，债市迎来一波快牛行情，长短端国债收益率均大幅下降，30年期超长债更是备受青睐，在这样的金融市场条件下，若再进行MLF和OMO的降息，进一步降低短期资金利率，大概率将提升债市的加杠杆热情，吸引更多资金涌入超长债，导致机构久期拉长，加剧金融体系的脆弱性，这与当前金融工作“防风险”的关注点不符，因此在当前金融环境下MLF、OMO降息短期内或难以期待。保持政策利好的循序渐进、持续落地或是2月成为降息时点的原因：从稳增长的角度看，LPR降息对实体企业、对居民有直接利好，相比MLF、OMO和结构性货币政策工具降息是更加有力的稳增长措施，但为何2023年下半年5年期以上LPR调降幅度低于1年期LPR，而本次5年期以上LPR单次调降25bps创最大降幅，我们认为这或是出于央行保持货币政策宽松的循序渐进、保持积极的政策信号持续释放的考虑。在2023年下半年，5年期以上LPR没有跟随1年期LPR第二次调降的主要原因或是当时正酝酿存量房贷利率调整，对居民而言这是一大政策利好，将有效降低居民房贷负担，释放投资和消费潜力；对商业银行而言存量房贷利率调整也将导致其利息收入减少、净息差下降，当时保持5年期以上LPR不变也可以给银行留出空间支持存量房贷利率调整工作。而当前已不存在类似情况，在此时调降5年期以上LPR能够提振居民购房意愿，对稳定房地产市场有积极意义。LPR降息后商业银行净息差压力或仍需存款降息加以对冲：在居民端5年期以上LPR主要对标房贷利率，房贷是居民中长期贷款的主要组成部分，截止2024年1月，这类贷款余额在60万亿，以这一余额测算，本次5年期以上LPR调降25bps在下次房贷利率重定价日（一般在每年1月1日）将导致银行年利息收入降低1500亿左右，对银行净息差造成一定压力，目前平衡商业银行净息差主要是通过对定期存款降息，本次5年期以上LPR调降缺口或需商业银行后续对定期存款降息10bps加以平衡，但由于房贷重定价的滞后性，未来存款降息也需考虑到年内后续可能的增量货币政策的影响。风险提示：（1）货币政策变化超预期；（2）人民币汇率波动风险；（3）金融市场波动风险。', 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['11000249937'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY094zdbxQDOC9407FMjIv78=', 'site': 'Huajin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622417356_1.pdf?1708454826000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622417356_1.pdf?1708454826000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '5Y LPR interest rate cut: stabilizing real estate, promoting bonds, and transmitting bond market interest rates', 'originalAuthor': '秦泰', 'originalContent': '投资要点只降长端政策利率，如何理解？2月20日，人民银行时隔半年再度宣布降息，大幅调降5YLPR25BP至3.95%，同时分别维持1YLPR利率和MLF利率于3.45%、2.5%不变。我们认为本次结构性降息说明了三点问题：1、本次降息向长端倾斜的结构和幅度均超预期，呼应央行所称“理顺信贷市场和债券市场的利率关系”，促进一线房地产市场尽早企稳见底。本次降息只降5YLPR且幅度较大，与2023年向1年期政策利率倾斜的降息结构不同，原因主要有三点。一、2023年1Y和5YLPR分别下调20BP和10BP，影响存款利率自律上限的1YLPR下调幅度更大，有利于引导银行存款利率下行和净息差修复，今年年初大中型商业银行普遍再度调降存款利率，为长端利率下调提供了可能性。二、央行在《货币政策执行报告》中首次明确提出“合理把握债券与信贷两个最大融资市场的关系”，“理顺信贷市场和债券市场的利率关系”。年初至今债券长端利率下行幅度较为明显，而贷款市场长期政策利率2023年以来波动很小，不具备资质发债融资的中小企业面临的利率环境相对不够友好，亟需修正。三、春节期间全国各地地产销售均较为清淡，两会在即，全年财政政策框架即将确定，房价能否普遍趋稳可能对财政发力的目标导向产生影响，在此背景下，下调5YLPR对当前仍绑定LPR的一线城市房地产市场可以形成一定的稳定作用。但也应看到，当前居民对房地产政策结构性放松态度相当理性，当前地产市场的投资投机属性已经大幅弱化，加之二三线城市首套房贷利率已普遍与LPR脱钩，本次降息大概率难以推动房地产市场进入泡沫化区间，而是更多地起到稳定预期，促进房价尽早企稳见底的效果。2、企业信贷出现降温迹象，亟需盘活信贷存量；地方债务问题悬而未决，相比刺激地产，加快债务风险化解意图更加明显。我们在报告《信用“开门红”再现，为何仍强调“盘活存量”？——金融数据、<货币政策执行报告>速评》（2024.2.9）中已经明确提及两点：1）春节错位和企业信贷需求整体降温造成2-3月新增信贷压力较大；2）在地产基建分别成为债务风险的两大主要源头的背景下，央行突出强调“盘活信贷存量”。大幅调降5YLPR意味着有效降低企业存量贷款的融资成本和地方债务风险相关的存量贷款利息成本的下降，当前果断实施能够兼顾这两项货币政策阶段性目标的长端政策利率下调，显示今年货币政策格外重视对房地产市场风险、地方债务风险的化解，但另一方面，年初大幅降息已经对存量债务风险的有序化解提供了良好的利率环境，年内进一步大幅下调长端利率概率有所下降。3、年初以来美元重拾升势、人民币再度小幅贬值的背景下仍果断降息，经济政策一致性得到突出强调，也意味着我们或可对财政扩张力度保持更大期待。年初以来美国经济数据呈现出更大的薪资通胀螺旋黏性，非美发达经济体与美国经济冷热背离扩大，美联储降息预期推迟，美元指数连续上行，也给人民币造成了一定的外溢性贬值压力。在前期人民银行如我们预期抢在美联储1月FOMC会议召开前“先发制人”宣布降准50BP，投放了足额的长期流动性的基础上，本次又果断宣布较大幅度的长端政策利率下调，从经济政策一致性的角度，向市场传递了较强的政策组合促进经济���长、优化经济结构的决心。全年外溢性流动性紧缩效应可能都会存在，从经济政策协同配合的角度来看，财政政策以更大力度实施扩张是货币政策配合性宽松的基本前提，我们预计2024年将是财政发力刺激消费内需的政策转型之年，货币政策主动配合实施充足的长期流动性投放并引导融资成本逐步下降是合理方向。我们维持2024年9月降准50BP的预测不变；预计后续仍将继续实施向1YLPR和MLF利率倾斜的小幅降息操作。风险提示：房地产市场复苏慢于预期风险；CNY超预期大幅贬值风险。', 'content': 'The investment key point is to only lower the long-term policy interest rate. How to understand it? On February 20, the People\\'s Bank of China announced another interest rate cut after half a year, significantly lowering the 5YLPR 25BP to 3.95%, while maintaining the 1YLPR interest rate and MLF interest rate at 3.45% and 2.5% respectively. We believe that this structural interest rate cut illustrates three points: 1. The structure and magnitude of this interest rate cut tilted towards the long end are both higher than expected, echoing what the central bank calls \"straightening out the interest rate relationship between the credit market and the bond market\" and promoting first-line real estate. The market stabilizes and bottoms out as soon as possible. This interest rate cut only reduces 5YLPR and the magnitude is relatively large. It is different from the interest rate cut structure that tilts towards the 1-year policy rate in 2023. There are three main reasons. 1. In 2023, 1Y and 5YLPR will be reduced by 20BP and 10BP respectively. The 1YLPR, which affects the upper limit of self-discipline of deposit interest rates, will be reduced by a larger margin, which will help guide the decline of bank deposit interest rates and the repair of net interest margins. At the beginning of this year, large and medium-sized commercial banks generally lowered deposit interest rates again. , providing the possibility for a reduction in long-term interest rates. 2. The central bank clearly stated for the first time in its \"Monetary Policy Implementation Report\" that it should \"reasonably grasp the relationship between the two largest financing markets, bonds and credit\" and \"straighten out the interest rate relationship between the credit market and the bond market.\" The long-term bond interest rates have fallen significantly since the beginning of the year, while the long-term policy interest rates in the loan market have fluctuated very little since 2023. The interest rate environment faced by small and medium-sized enterprises that are not qualified to issue bonds is relatively unfriendly and needs to be revised urgently. 3. During the Spring Festival, real estate sales across the country were relatively light. The two sessions are about to be held, and the fiscal policy framework for the whole year is about to be determined. Whether housing prices can generally stabilize may have an impact on the target orientation of fiscal efforts. Against this background, lowering the 5YLPR will have an impact on the current situation. The real estate market in first-tier cities bound to LPR can have a certain stabilizing effect. However, it should also be noted that the current attitude of residents towards the structural relaxation of real estate policies is quite rational. The investment and speculation nature of the current real estate market has been significantly weakened. In addition, first-home loan interest rates in second- and third-tier cities have generally been decoupled from LPR. It is highly likely that this interest rate cut will be difficult to promote. The real estate market has entered the bubble zone, but it has the effect of stabilizing expectations and promoting housing prices to stabilize and bottom out as soon as possible. 2. Corporate credit is showing signs of cooling down, and there is an urgent need to revitalize the credit stock; local debt problems are unresolved, and the intention to speed up the resolution of debt risks is more obvious than stimulating real estate. In our report \"Credit has had a good start\" again, why do we still emphasize \"revitalizing the stock\"? ——Financial Data, \"Quick Review of Monetary Policy Implementation Report\" (2024.2.9) has clearly mentioned two points: 1) The misalignment of the Spring Festival and the overall cooling of corporate credit demand caused greater pressure on new credit in February and March; 2 ) In the context of real estate and infrastructure becoming the two main sources of debt risks, the central bank has highlighted \"revitalizing credit stock.\" A substantial reduction in the 5YLPR means an effective reduction in the financing costs of existing corporate loans and a decline in the interest costs of existing loans related to local debt risks. The current decisive implementation of the long-term policy interest rate reduction that can take into account these two monetary policy phased goals shows that this year\\'s monetary policy The policy attaches special importance to resolving real estate market risks and local debt risks. However, on the other hand, the sharp interest rate cuts at the beginning of the year have provided a good interest rate environment for the orderly resolution of existing debt risks. The probability of further significant reductions in long-term interest rates during the year has declined. 3. Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. dollar has resumed its upward trend and the RMB has depreciated slightly again. It has still decisively cut interest rates. The consistency of economic policies has been highlighted, which also means that we may have greater expectations for fiscal expansion. Since the beginning of the year, U.S. economic data have shown a greater stickiness in the wage inflation spiral. The divergence between the hot and cold conditions of non-U.S. developed economies and the U.S. economy has widened. The Fed\\'s expected interest rate cut has been postponed. The U.S. dollar index has continued to rise, which has also caused certain spillover depreciation pressure on the RMB. . In the early stage, as we expected, the People\\'s Bank of China preemptively announced a 50bp RRR cut before the Federal Reserve\\'s January FOMC meeting and injected sufficient long-term liquidity. This time, it decisively announced a larger reduction in long-term policy interest rates. , from the perspective of economic policy consistency, it conveys to the market a strong determination to promote economic growth and optimize the economic structure through a strong policy mix. The tightening effect of spillover liquidity may exist throughout the year. From the perspective of economic policy coordination, the expansion of fiscal policy with greater intensity is the basic prerequisite for the coordination and easing of monetary policy. We expect that 2024 will be the year of fiscal stimulus. In the year of policy transformation for domestic consumer demand, it is a reasonable direction for monetary policy to actively cooperate with the implementation of sufficient long-term liquidity and guide the gradual reduction of financing costs. We maintain our forecast of a 50BP RRR cut in September 2024 unchanged; it is expected that slight interest rate cuts tilted towards 1YLPR and MLF interest rates will continue to be implemented in the future. Risk warning: The risk of the real estate market recovering slower than expected; the risk of CNY depreciating sharply beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('ae91a726-1e5a-5a58-8cc8-85a64f6c36b2'), 'sentimentScore': -0.05677863955497742, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'EC7O10KGPMEBQKG5SEICGHUQTJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:16:31 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'EC7O10KGPMEBQKG5SEICGHUQTJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('17c13102-057e-5dcf-b197-78e6b1ce63e4'), 'title': 'Interpretation of LPR adjustment in February 2024: Four points of understanding of asymmetric “interest rate cuts”', 'author': 'Zhang Deli ,You Yong', 'orgName': '中泰证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000157', 'orgSName': '中泰证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY0xAIqILjlGTJkngUYV3wog=', 'researcher': '张德礼,游勇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000250135', '11000442740'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY0xAIqILjlGTJkngUYV3wog=', 'site': 'Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中泰证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622416576_1.pdf?1708451436000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622416576_1.pdf?1708451436000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of LPR adjustment in February 2024: Four points of understanding of asymmetric “interest rate cuts”', 'originalAuthor': '张德礼,游勇', 'originalContent': '要点2024年2月20日，中国1年期LPR为3.45%，持平于前值；5年期LPR为3.95%，和上一次相比下调了25bp。针对本次LPR的非对称“降息”，我们有以下四点理解：第一，LPR下调预期较强，实际的下调方式和幅度超预期。虽然2月MLF没有降息，但最近两天市场对LPR下调仍有较强预期，原因一是央行领导1月24日在预告降准和下调支农支小再贷款、再贴现利率时，称“这些措施都将有助于推动信贷定价基准的贷款市场报价利率，也就是我们说的LPR下行”；二是2月18日央行主管的《金融时报》公众号发表文章《贷款利率仍有下行空间》，称近期LPR还可能下行，市场解读为这是在预热LPR下调。2月1年期LPR不变、5年期LPR下调，和2023年8月的那次非对称“降息”正好相反。2019年8月LPR报价改革后，到本次“降���”前，中国5年期LPR共下调了7次，降幅为5bp、10bp、15bp的分别有3次、2次和2次。本次5年期LPR下调了25bp，是单次“降息”幅度最大的。第二，在有效需求不足的情况下，实际贷款成本偏高，可能是本次5年期LPR大幅下调的最主要原因。2023年12月召开的中央经济工作会议，权威定调指出推动经济进一步回升向好面临“有效需求不足”等困难和挑战。今年春节国内旅游市场火爆，不过可比口径下今年春节长假国内旅游人均支出恢复到2019年农历同期的91%，低于今年元旦假期97%的恢复率。春节档电影平均票价为49元，已连续两年下降。春节楼市成交平淡，中指研究院统计显示，今年春节假期25个代表城市新房日均成交面积和去年农历同期相比下降了近三成。降低融资成本，是刺激消费和购房的重要举措之一。CPI和PPI这两个重要物价指标同比持续低位，抬高了实际融资成本。和中长期贷款利率挂钩的5年期LPR大幅下调，有助于降低实体部门的融资成本。2023年12月国有大行存款利率下调和1月降准，也一定程度上缓释了商业银行净息差压力。第三，对资本市场有积极影响。股票市场方面，我们理解和1月官宣降准一样，本次超预期非对称“降息”，是一揽子稳定资本市场的政策之一。债券市场方面，1年期MLF不变+5年期LPR下调的组合，相比于“宽货币”，“宽信用”的政策信号更明显。不过在房地产企稳带动信用周期内生性扩张前，我们认为贷款利率下降带动长端无风险收益率下行的幅度，要大于信用扩张对长端无风险收益率的推升，综合来看中国10年期国债收益率短期调整的风险可能有限。汇率因素对MLF利率下调有一定制约，不过由于5年期LPR对宽信用和稳经济的积极意义，本次非对称“降息”对人民币汇率影响偏正面。第四，对商业银行而言，进一步降低存款等负债端成本的诉求上升。根据中泰证券研究所银行组的测算，本次非对称“降息”拖累上市银行净息差8bp左右；综合考虑前期的降准50bp、2023年12月存款挂牌利率调整的缓释，上市银行净息差降幅在5bp左右。从稳定息差的角度看，我们预计一个季度内可能出台新一轮的存款降成本。风险提示：政策变动，经济恢复不及预期。', 'content': 'Key points: On February 20, 2024, China\\'s 1-year LPR was 3.45%, unchanged from the previous value; the 5-year LPR was 3.95%, down 25bp from the previous time. Regarding this asymmetric \"interest rate cut\" of LPR, we have the following four points of understanding: First, the LPR cut is expected to be strong, and the actual way and extent of the cut exceed expectations. Although the MLF did not cut interest rates in February, the market still has strong expectations for LPR cuts in the past two days. The first reason is that on January 24, when the central bank leaders announced a reduction in required reserve ratio and a reduction in re-lending and re-discount rates to support agriculture and small businesses, they said \" These measures will help drive down the loan market quotation rate, which is the benchmark for credit pricing, which is what we call the LPR. Secondly, on February 18, the Financial Times public account in charge of the central bank published an article \"Loan interest rates still have room to fall.\" ”, saying that the LPR may fall in the near future, and the market interpreted this as preheating for a downward adjustment of the LPR. The 1-year LPR was unchanged and the 5-year LPR was lowered in February, which is exactly the opposite of the asymmetric \"interest rate cut\" in August 2023. After the LPR quotation reform in August 2019, before this \"interest rate cut\", China\\'s 5-year LPR was lowered a total of 7 times, with reductions of 5bp, 10bp, and 15bp 3 times, 2 times, and 2 times respectively. This time the 5-year LPR has been lowered by 25bp, which is the largest single \"interest rate cut\". Second, in the case of insufficient effective demand, the actual loan cost is high, which may be the main reason for the sharp reduction of the 5-year LPR. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2023 authoritatively pointed out that promoting the economy to further rebound will face difficulties and challenges such as \"insufficient effective demand\". The domestic tourism market is booming during this year\\'s Spring Festival. However, on a comparable basis, the per capita domestic tourism expenditure during this year\\'s Spring Festival holiday has recovered to 91% of the same period in the lunar calendar in 2019, which is lower than the 97% recovery rate during this year\\'s New Year\\'s Day holiday. The average ticket price for Spring Festival movies is 49 yuan, which has dropped for two consecutive years. Transactions in the property market during the Spring Festival were flat. Statistics from the China Index Research Institute show that the average daily transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bnew homes in 25 representative cities during this Spring Festival holiday dropped by nearly 30% compared with the same period last year. Reducing financing costs is one of the important measures to stimulate consumption and home purchases. The two important price indicators, CPI and PPI, have remained low year-on-year, raising actual financing costs. The significant reduction in the 5-year LPR, which is linked to medium- and long-term loan interest rates, will help reduce the financing costs of the real sector. The reduction in deposit interest rates of major state-owned banks in December 2023 and the reserve requirement ratio reduction in January also eased the pressure on commercial banks\\' net interest margins to a certain extent. Third, it has a positive impact on the capital market. In terms of the stock market, we understand that, like the official RRR cut in January, this unexpected and asymmetric “rate cut” is part of a package of policies to stabilize the capital market. In the bond market, the combination of unchanged 1-year MLF + lowered 5-year LPR has a more obvious policy signal of \"widening credit\" than \"widening money\". However, before the stabilization of real estate drives the endogenous expansion of the credit cycle, we believe that the decline in loan interest rates will drive the long-term risk-free rate of return downward to a greater extent than the credit expansion\\'s push to the long-term risk-free rate of return. Taken together, China\\'s 10-year The risk of short-term adjustment in Treasury yields may be limited. Exchange rate factors have certain constraints on the reduction of MLF interest rates. However, due to the positive significance of the 5-year LPR in easing credit and stabilizing the economy, this asymmetric \"interest rate cut\" has a positive impact on the RMB exchange rate. Fourth, for commercial banks, there is an increasing demand to further reduce liability-side costs such as deposits. According to calculations by the banking group of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, this asymmetric \"interest rate cut\" drags down the net interest margin of listed banks by about 8bp; taking into account the previous 50bp cut in reserve requirements and the slowdown in the adjustment of deposit listed interest rates in December 2023, the net interest margin of listed banks The interest rate spread fell by about 5bp. From the perspective of stabilizing interest rate spreads, we expect that a new round of deposit cost reductions may be introduced within a quarter. Risk warning: Policy changes may result in economic recovery falling short of expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('b9667b23-5191-55a2-9afc-91e894a5f714'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8913333658128977, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'ED65V38DPLH6D6I02TKNDDTJ63VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:16:34 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'ED65V38DPLH6D6I02TKNDDTJ63VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('46175a8f-c0f0-5069-9336-4f9655dce576'), 'title': 'Comments on February LPR data: The economic recovery is not yet stable, the decline in LPR over 5 years has reached a record high, and the short-term market may be optimistic.', 'author': 'Fei Xiaoping, Yin Weiqi, Zeng Hao', 'orgName': '东莞证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000081', 'orgSName': '东莞证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuYzK7XafmFU+gNlFtD0ql4U4=', 'researcher': '费小平,尹炜祺,曾浩', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172091', '11000369924', '11000444937'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuYzK7XafmFU+gNlFtD0ql4U4=', 'site': 'Dongguan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东莞证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622415584_1.pdf?1708449720000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622415584_1.pdf?1708449720000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February LPR data: The economic recovery is not yet stable, the decline in LPR over 5 years has reached a record high, and the short-term market may be optimistic.', 'originalAuthor': '费小平,尹炜祺,曾浩', 'originalContent': '事件：中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2024年2月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.45%，5年期以上LPR为3.95%。点评：1、经济恢复尚不稳固，五年期以上LPR降幅超预期，实际利率水平有望进一步下行。首先，我们认为2月LPR利率下调的核心原因是当前国内经济基本面偏弱。2024年开年以来，社融信贷数据迎来开门红，春节假期出行消费平稳恢复，折射出中国经济呈现边际回升向好。但与此同时，2024��1月PMI录得49.2%，连续四个月位于荣枯线以下，经济环比动能继续回落；1月CPI通胀录得-0.8%，再创本轮新低。1月PPI同比下降2.5%，环比下降0.2%，考虑到物价水平回升节奏较为缓慢，缓解企业和居民实际融资成本上升压力较为紧迫；此外，1月份超预期的新增社融也未掩盖实体经济融资需求还需要宽松政策加码提振的问题。而从地方政府两会上看，2024年经济增长目标或继续定在5%左右，目前尚位于收缩区间的制造业采购经理指数和偏低的物价水平，均反映出当前经济恢复尚不稳固、社会预期偏弱、有效需求不足，2024年经济增长压力依然不减。因此，在合力推动一季度经济“开门红”的关键时期，货币政策前置发力的必要性加大，LPR报价的下调无疑将提振市场信心，也将引导实体经济融资的实际利率进一步下降。其次，从本次降息的特点来看，首先是MLF按兵不动，LPR单独下调，此前历史上仅出现过两次，反映出货币政策传导途径或发生边际变化。2月MLF未调主要是考虑了人民币汇率的约束，但存款利率调降叠加定向降息等因素推动2月LPR下行。具体来看，从去年下半年主要银行下调存款利率，到今年1月25日起人民银行开展“定向降息”，下调支农支小再贷款、再贴现利率，以及2月5日人民银行开展全面降准，均有利于推动银行资金成本下降，虽然本月MLF利率按兵不动，但上述措施均为LPR下调打开了操作空间。此外，五年期以上LPR调降25个基点明显超出市场预期，房地产行业迎来利好。房企融资以长期融资为主，而个人房贷利率也锚定5年期以上LPR，本次5年期以上LPR大幅下调，对房企资金成本下降及购房需求均带来正面影响，有助于支持房地产市场平稳健康发展，亦有利于稳定信心，促进投资和消费。最后，我们认为本次超预期降息有望引导融资成本下行，加大实体经济支持力度。而“非对称降息”的方式亦为春节后返工复产和稳定资本市场营造良好的货币金融环境，有助于扭转市场预期，提振市场信心。往后看，主要发达经济体央行降息时间和节奏虽有不确定性，但年内开始降息是大概率事件。我国货币政策坚持以我为主，将继续引导社会综合融资成本稳中有降，进一步激发实体经济有效需求，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势。2、对市场影响：5年期LPR利率调降幅度创历史新高，释放逆周期调节信号，多项政策推动下，预计短期市场或偏乐观向上。5年期LPR利率调降幅度创历史新高，释放逆周期调节信号，稳定市场预期。在此前发布的《东莞证券2024年2月份A股投资策略报告：震荡反复后，迎来修复格局》中，我们就明确提出“当前物价水平和价格预期目标相比仍有距离、新一轮存款利率调降进一步缓解银行净息差压力，年后降息（调降MLF利率、LPR）依然可期”。此次降息符合我们预期，但调降幅度超预期。早在1月24号，央行在新闻发布会上直接官宣全面降准0.5个百分点，降准幅度超市场预期，积极修复微观主体情绪。本次在2月MLF操作利率不变的情况下，2月份LPR报价进行非对称调整，1年期以上LPR报价维持不变，5年期以上LPR报价下调25个基点，调降幅度创历史新高，释放逆周期调节信号。5年期LPR利率调降将直接带动新发放企业中长期贷款和居民房贷利率跟进下调，有助于提振企业投资需求，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展，扭转市场预期，进一步提振市场信心。对市场而言，超预期降息叠加多政策持续推进演绎，预计短期市场或偏乐观向上。截止至2024年2月19日，市场延续底部反弹格局，沪指走出四连阳，两市量能温和放大。证监会召开系列座谈会听取意见建议、国有资本持续增持稳市场、1月信贷社融规模超预期超季节性、春节期间旅游消费热潮再创新高以及2月5年期以上LPR下调25个基点等有利因素在逐渐增多，有助于夯实市场走稳基础，当下投资者对市场宜相对乐观看待，预计短期市场或偏乐观向上，关注后续存量政策效能释放情况，增量政策的出台情况。从行业板块来看，建议关注三条主线，第一，中特估、高股息红利主题，建议关注政策受益的国企改革、中字头板块，以及高红利、高股息的银行、煤炭等权重板块。第二，家电、建材等，建议关注政府开支增加和三大工程启动带来的公用事业、建材、家电等板块的投资机会；第三，绩优的白酒板块以及高景气赛道如AI科技创新（Sora）。风险提示内需恢复不及预期，消费延续疲弱，从而加大经济稳增长压力；海外经济超预期下滑，以及中美贸易摩擦超预期恶化，导致��需回落，国内出口承压；全球主要经济体超预期延长加息周期，高利率环境使全球经济增速明显放缓，压缩国内资金面；海外信用收缩引发风险事件，可能对市场流动性造成冲击，干扰利率和汇率走势。', 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'事件：中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2024年2月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.45%，5年期以上LPR为3.95%。点评：1、经济恢复尚不稳固，五年期以上LPR降幅超预期，实际利率水平有望进一步下行。首先，我们认为2月LPR利率下调的核心原因是当前国内经济基本面偏弱。2024年开年以来，社融信贷数据迎来开门红，春节假期出行消费平稳恢复，折射出中国经济呈现边际回升向好。但与此同时，2024年1月PMI录得49.2%，连续四个月位于荣枯线以下，经济环比动能继续回落；1月CPI通胀录得-0.8%，再创本轮新低。1月PPI同比下降2.5%，环比下降0.2%，考虑到物价水平回升节奏较为缓慢，缓解企业和居民实际融资成本上升压力较为紧迫；此外，1月份超预期的新增社融也未掩盖实体经济融资需求还需要宽松政策加码提振的问题。而从地方政府两会上看，2024年经济增长目标或继续定在5%左右，目前尚位于收缩区间的制造业采购经理指数和偏低的物价水平，均反映出当前经济恢复尚不稳固、社会预期偏弱、有效需求不足，2024年经济增长压力依然不减。因此，在合力推动一季度经济“开门红”的关键时期，货币政策前置发力的必要性加大，LPR报价的下调无疑将提振市场信心，也将引导实体经济融资的实际利率进一步下降。其次，从本次降息的特点来看，首先是MLF按兵不动，LPR单独下调，此前历史上仅出现过两次，反映出货币政策传导途径或发生边际变化。2月MLF未调主要是考虑了人民币汇率的约束，但存款利率调降叠加定向降息等因素推动2月LPR下行。具体来看，从去年下半年主要银行下调存款利率，到今年1月25日起人民银行开展“定向降息”，下调支农支小再贷款、再贴现利率，以及2月5日人民银行开展全面降准，均有利于推动银行资金成本下降，虽然本月MLF利率按兵不动，但上述措施均为LPR下调打开了操作空间。此外，五年期以上LPR调降25个基点明显超出市场预期，房地产行业迎来利好。房企融资以长期融资为主，而个人房贷利率也锚定5年期以上LPR，本次5年期以上LPR大幅下调，对房企资金成本下降及购房需求均带来正面影响，有助于支持房地产市场平稳健康发展，亦有利于稳定信心，促进投资和消费。最后，我们认为本次超预期降息有望引导融资成本下行，加大实体经济支持力度。而“非对称降息”的方式亦为春节后返工复产和稳定资本市场营造良好的货币金融环境，有助于扭转市场预期，提振市场信心。往后看，主要发达经济体央行降息时间和节奏虽有不确定性，但年内开始降息是大概率事件。我国货币政策坚持以我为主，将继续引导社会综合融资成本稳中有降，进一步激发实体经济有效需求，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势。2、对市场影响：5年期LPR利率调降幅度创历史新高，释放逆周期调节信号，多项政策推动下，预计短期市场或偏乐观向上。5年期LPR利率调降幅度创历史新高，释放逆周期调节信号，稳定市场预期。在此前发布的《东莞证券2024年2月份A股投资策略报告：震荡反复后，迎来修复格局》中，我们就明确提出“当前物价水平和价格预期目标相比仍有距离、新一轮存款利率调降进一步缓解银行净息差压力，年后降息（调降MLF利率、LPR）依然可期”。此次降息符合我们预期，但调降幅度超预期。早在1月24号，央行在新闻发布会上直接官宣全面降准0.5个百分点，降准幅度超市场预期，积极修复微观主体情绪。本次在2月MLF操作利率不变的情况下，2月份LPR报价进行非对称调整，1年期以上LPR报价维持不变，5年期以上LPR报价下调25个基点，调降幅度创历史新高，释放逆周期调节信号。5年期LPR利率调降将直接带动新发放企业中长期贷款和居民房贷利率跟进下调，有助于提振企业投资需求，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展，扭转市场预期，进一步提振市场信心。对市场而言，超预期降息叠加多政策持续推进演绎，预计短期市场或偏乐观向上。截止至2024年2月19日，市场延续底部反弹格局，沪指走出四连阳，两市量能温和放大。证监会召开系列座谈会听取意见建议、国有资本持续增持稳市场、1月信贷社融规模超预期超季节性、春节期间旅游消费热潮再创新高以及2月5年期以上LPR下调25个基点等有利因素在逐渐增多，有助于夯实市场走稳基础，当下投资者对市场宜相对乐观看待，预计短期市场或偏乐观向上，关注后续存量政策效能释放情况，增量政策的出台情况。从行业板块来看，建议关注三条主线，第一，中特估、高股息红利主题，建议关注政策受益的国企改革、中字头板块，以及高红利、高股息的银行、煤炭等权重板块。第二，家电、建材等，建议关注政府开支增加和三大工程启动带来的公用事业、建材、家电等板块的投资机会；第三，绩优的白酒板块以及高景气赛道如AI科技创新（Sora）。风险提示内需恢复不及预期，消费延续疲弱，从而加大经济稳增长压力；海外经济超预期下滑，以及中美贸易摩擦超预期恶化，导致外需回落，国内出口承压；全球主要经济体超预期延长加息周期，高利率环境使全球经济增速明显放缓，压缩国内资金面；海外信用收缩引发风险事件，可能对市场流动性造成冲击，干扰利率和汇率走势。', 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'', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000270344', '11000284640', '11000288237', '11000288238', '11000408032', '11000444044', '11000456832'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY+49NMpaEUGUIHVurNosOsk=', 'site': 'China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中诚信国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622415149_1.pdf?1708450377000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622415149_1.pdf?1708450377000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'International Macroeconomic Information Biweekly Report', 'originalAuthor': '杜凌轩,王家璐,于嘉,张晶鑫,易成,方菏阳,李泽冕', 'originalContent': '资讯一览热点评论印尼大选快速计票防长普拉博沃宣布获胜独立参选人集团在巴基斯坦大选中处于领先地位，各方将联合组阁选举总理经济美国1月CPI超出预期2023年俄罗斯石油和天然气预算收入下降24%墨西哥央行连续第14次加息土耳其1月通胀率创新高马来西亚去年经济表现不如预期全年增长3.7%南非政府宣布最低工资提高8.5%至每小时27.58兰特IMF将巴基斯坦2024财年的增长预期下调至2%财政新加坡政府连续三财年收支平衡发布2024财政年预算案伊朗计划伊历明年税收收入增长49.8%2023年3-10月石油销售财政收入为37亿美元政治比利时安特卫普港因农民抗议而暂停运营俄军已完全控制乌军重要防御枢纽美方援乌提案推进受阻春节期间菲律宾在南海挑衅不断由于军事援助减弱乌克兰军队撤出乌东重镇阿夫杰耶夫卡国际收支意大利正等待欧盟批准48亿欧元关税，用以支付天然气储存成本南非过去十年外资逃离超1万亿兰特最新大麦克指数揭露经济挑战今年初越南出口形势向好阿尔及利亚2023年石油储量在阿拉伯国家中排名第七油气总产量为1.94亿吨油气当量ESG土耳其2023年人口增长创十年最低中东地区在人工智能领域的投资及技能提升方面处于领先地位主权信用穆迪将以色列主权信用评级下调至A2，展望调整为负面', 'content': \"Information at a glance Hot comments Indonesian election quick vote count Defense Minister Prabowo declares victory The independent candidate group is in the leading position in Pakistan's election, and all parties will jointly form a government to elect the prime minister Economy US CPI in January exceeds expectations Russia's oil and gas in 2023 Budget revenue fell by 24%. Mexico's central bank raised interest rates for the 14th consecutive time. Turkey's inflation rate hit a new high in January. Malaysia's economic performance last year was not as good as expected, with a full-year growth of 3.7%. The South African government announced an 8.5% increase in the minimum wage to 27.58 rand per hour. The IMF set Pakistan's 2024 fiscal year. The growth forecast for the year has been lowered to 2%. The Singapore government has balanced its expenditures for the third consecutive fiscal year and released the budget for fiscal year 2024. Iran plans to increase tax revenue by 49.8% next year. Fiscal revenue from oil sales from March to October 2023 will be US$3.7 billion. Politics Belgium The port of Antwerp has been suspended due to farmers' protests. The Russian army has fully taken control of the important defense hub of the Ukrainian army. The advancement of the US aid proposal to Ukraine has been blocked. During the Spring Festival, the Philippines continued to provoke provocations in the South China Sea due to the weakening of military assistance. The Ukrainian army withdrew from the important town of Avdeyevka in eastern Ukraine. International collection Italy is waiting for the EU to approve 4.8 billion euros in tariffs to cover the cost of natural gas storage. Foreign investment has fled more than 1 trillion rand from South Africa in the past decade. The latest Big Mac Index reveals economic challenges. Vietnam’s export situation improved at the beginning of this year. Algeria’s oil reserves in 2023 in the Arab world. Ranked 7th among countries with total oil and gas production of 194 million tons of oil and gas equivalent ESG Turkey’s population growth in 2023 will be the lowest in ten years Middle East leads investment and skills improvement in artificial intelligence Sovereign credit Moody’s downgrades Israel’s sovereign credit rating to A2, outlook adjusted to negative\", 'authorid': UUID('a2c4b698-a492-5220-beba-42486291b20f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.4597524404525757, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'RT6F9EE7HLFRT5O9C516A360ENVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:16:41 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'RT6F9EE7HLFRT5O9C516A360ENVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8f461e99-54c1-5b45-b6ba-e5bc085efe0b'), 'title': \"Comments on the central bank's RRR cut: The 5-year LPR is lowered by 25 basis points, once again increasing investment to stabilize real estate\", 'author': 'Chen Li', 'orgName': '川财证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000204', 'orgSName': '川财证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuYzdvqPrxCQ7lkko6AhzaNas=', 'researcher': '陈雳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000174919'], 'count': 13, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuYzdvqPrxCQ7lkko6AhzaNas=', 'site': 'Chuancai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '川财证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622415148_1.pdf?1708449190000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622415148_1.pdf?1708449190000.pdf', 'originalTitle': \"Comments on the central bank's RRR cut: The 5-year LPR is lowered by 25 basis points, once again increasing investment to stabilize real estate\", 'originalAuthor': '陈雳', 'originalContent': '事件中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2024年2月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.45%，与前值持平；5年期以上LPR为3.95%，较前值下降25个基点。（中国人民银行）点评5年期LPR下调25个基点，再度加码稳地产。降息时点来看，选在春节后降息，主要由于1月房地产市场表现未见明显起色，百强房企销售规模延续收缩态势。房地产是国民经济的支柱产业，稳地产是稳增长的重要一环，年初房地产表现偏弱，调降利率势在必行。降息幅度来看，本次5年期LPR下调25个基点，为近4年来降幅最大的一次。为助力房地产市场企稳，继2023年接连出台了支持刚改住房需求、进一步落实降低购买首套住房首付比例和贷款利率、减免改善性住房换购税费、认房不认贷等政策措施后，2024年初上海、苏州、广州、北京等地放松限购政策。宏观政策接续发力稳地产，但作用效果尚不明显，此次降息力度较大，对提振市场主体信心、助力房市企稳具有重要意义。此次调降LPR前未降MLF，显现出稳汇率的政策取向。从LPR的算法角度看，LPR利率是在MLF利率的基础上加点形成的，因此大多数情况下，MLF与LPR同步调降。从MLF、LPR的侧重角度看，MLF侧重汇率，美国通胀反弹、降息预期延后，若此时调降政策利率MLF，则人民币或将面临较大贬值压力。LPR侧重实体，调降LPR可在降低实体经济融资成本的同时，不给汇率太大扰动；且LPR的下行空间主要取决于银行息差，鉴于1月降准和存款降息已从成本端为银行做足缓冲，LPR下行空间已打开，此时调降LPR对银行盈利带来的压��不大。年初货币政策密集发力，稳健宽松导向不变，后续政策性金融工具有望重启。今年1月，央行宣布下调存款准备金率0.5个百分点，下调支农支小再贷款、再贴现率0.25个百分点；叠加此次大幅下调5年期LPR25个基点，年初货币政策宽松密度、力度均较高，显现出稳健宽松的积极政策取向，但预计短期内再次降准降息的可能性不大。潘功胜表示，“维护价格稳定、推动价格温和回升作为把握货币政策的重要考量”，鉴于我国2023年12月、2024年1月的CPI、PPI均同比负增，后续货币政策继续发力的可能性较大。展望后市，PSL有望续发，政策性金融工具有望重启。风险提示：宏观经济不及预期，出现严重信用事件，政策变化不及预期。', 'content': 'Event The People\\'s Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) on February 20, 2024 is: 1-year LPR is 3.45%, the same as the previous value; 5-year and above LPR is 3.95%, A decrease of 25 basis points from the previous value. (People\\'s Bank of China) commented that the 5-year LPR was lowered by 25 basis points, and it once again increased its investment to stabilize real estate. In terms of the timing of the rate cut, the rate cut was chosen after the Spring Festival, mainly because the performance of the real estate market did not improve significantly in January, and the sales scale of the top 100 real estate companies continued to shrink. Real estate is a pillar industry of the national economy, and stabilizing real estate is an important part of stabilizing growth. The performance of real estate at the beginning of the year was weak, and it is imperative to lower interest rates. In terms of the extent of the interest rate cut, the 5-year LPR was cut by 25 basis points, which was the largest drop in the past four years. In order to help stabilize the real estate market, following the successive introduction of policies and measures in 2023 to support the demand for newly renovated housing, further implementation of policies and measures such as reducing the down payment ratio and loan interest rate for purchasing first homes, reducing or exempting taxes and fees for the purchase of improved housing, and recognizing the home but not the loan, in 2024 At the beginning of the year, Shanghai, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Beijing and other places relaxed purchase restriction policies. Macroeconomic policies continue to work to stabilize real estate, but the effect is not yet obvious. This significant interest rate cut is of great significance to boosting the confidence of market entities and helping stabilize the housing market. The MLF was not lowered before the LPR cut this time, showing the policy orientation of stabilizing the exchange rate. From the perspective of the LPR algorithm, the LPR interest rate is formed by adding points to the MLF interest rate. Therefore, in most cases, MLF and LPR are lowered simultaneously. From the perspective of the focus of MLF and LPR, MLF focuses on the exchange rate. US inflation rebounds and interest rate cut expectations are postponed. If the policy interest rate MLF is lowered at this time, the RMB may face greater depreciation pressure. The LPR focuses on entities. Lowering the LPR can reduce the financing costs of the real economy without causing too much disturbance to the exchange rate; and the downside of the LPR mainly depends on bank interest spreads. In view of the January RRR cut and the deposit interest rate cut, banks have benefited from the cost side. With sufficient buffering, the downside space for LPR has been opened. At this time, lowering LPR will not put much pressure on bank profits. At the beginning of the year, monetary policy was intensively implemented, and the steady and easing guidance remained unchanged. Subsequent policy financial tools are expected to be restarted. In January this year, the central bank announced that it would lower the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, and reduce the re-lending and rediscount rates to support agriculture and small businesses by 0.25 percentage points. Superimposed on this substantial reduction of 5-year LPR by 25 basis points, the intensity and intensity of monetary policy easing at the beginning of the year were evenly divided. It is relatively high, showing a positive policy orientation of steady easing, but it is expected that it is unlikely to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates again in the short term. Pan Gongsheng said, \"Maintaining price stability and promoting a moderate price recovery are important considerations in controlling monetary policy.\" Given that my country\\'s CPI and PPI in December 2023 and January 2024 both experienced negative year-on-year growth, there is a possibility that subsequent monetary policy will continue to exert force. larger. Looking forward to the market outlook, PSL is expected to be renewed and policy financial instruments are expected to be restarted. Risk warning: The macro economy is less than expected, serious credit events occur, and policy changes are less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('267e0858-7a39-5196-be76-43e80fed6dc6'), 'sentimentScore': -0.3064705729484558, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'RF6HK8DQJANSADNQJ9K30IMFEVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:16:43 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'RF6HK8DQJANSADNQJ9K30IMFEVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('90b1e387-d3d5-5e83-9ad8-d5d6c3c53c39'), 'title': 'Domestic Observation: Comments on the LPR cut in February 2024 - the three major characteristics of this LPR cut', 'author': 'Hu Shaohua, Liu Sijia', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY5Xgz+45fjOD/l2BikvhKOo=', 'researcher': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249934', '11000257478'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY5Xgz+45fjOD/l2BikvhKOo=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622414948_1.pdf?1708449049000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622414948_1.pdf?1708449049000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Domestic Observation: Comments on the LPR cut in February 2024 - the three major characteristics of this LPR cut', 'originalAuthor': '胡少华,刘思佳', 'originalContent': '投资要点事件：2月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2024年2月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.45%，5年期以上LPR为3.95%。核心观点：5年期以上LPR超预期大幅下调，体现货币政策正在发力，对地产的支持的信号较为明显。往后来看，结合目前国内偏高的实际利率水平，我们认为上半年，尤其是二季度仍是调整政策利率的窗口。一方面1-2月数据主要于3月中上旬开始披露，短期政策进入观察期，两会定调后或有更清晰的路径指引；另一方面二季度经济增速面临6.3%的高基数。本次LPR下调的三大特征：1.25个BP为LPR改革以来单次最大下调幅度。2.政策利率未下调的情况下LPR单独调整。3.1年期LPR未调整，仅5年期以上LPR下调，为非对称降息。总的来看，释放较为积极信号。LPR单次最大下调幅度。此前市场对2月LPR下调已有预期，但历史性的25个BP幅度超市场预期，毕竟2023年Q3商业银行净息差仍然处于1.73%的历史低位。2023年四季度GDP增速虽然有所回升，但低基数有较多贡献，从两年平均增速来看较三季度有所下滑。本次LPR在2月即下调，且幅度超预期，体现了稳增长，政策发力的决心。包括两轮存款利率下调在内的多举措为LPR下调创造了空间。2020年以来，在政策利率未调整的情况下，LPR下调仅发生过两次，分别是在2021年12月以及2022年5月。回溯来看2022年5月5年期以上LPR的下行主要受降准25个BP，央行上缴8000亿元结存利润（相当于降准40个BP），以及存款利率上限下调10个BP的综合影响；2021年12月1年期LPR的下行主要受7月及12月两次降准各50个BP推动银行负债成本下降的影响。从本轮来看，数量工具上，连续5个月超额续作MLF累计接近2.1万亿元，以及近两次累计降准75个BP，虽然有降低负债成本的效果，但更多可能体现货币与财政政策的协调配合，满足1.39万亿地方政府特殊再融资债券以及1万亿增发国债发行的流动性需要。2023年9月及12月的两轮存款利率下调以及央行的结构性降息，或是推动LPR下调的主因，在一定程度上为LPR下调创造了空间。2023年四季度货币政策报告专栏中论述了利率自制机制，包括存款利率市场化调整机制在内的利率自制机制有望继续发挥重要作用，提高利率传导效率。非对称降息稳地产，降企业长期负债成本。四季度货币政策执行报告中指出，稳健的货币政策要“灵活适度、精准有效”，非对称降息是货币政策基调的精确体现。一方面，内需上消费恢复斜率偏缓，基建面临约束，单靠在结构升级转型背景下的制造业，可能无法对冲地产投资下行带来的压力，稳地产在2024年的重要性仍然很高。虽然近期一线城市推出了新一轮的限购放松政策，春节错位因素下1月30城商品房成交面积同比降幅收窄至-6.95%，但从春节期间同比口径的对比来看，尚未看到趋势性的扭转。另一方面，企业中长期贷款中可能包含一部分城投主体，在一定程度上或缓���付息压力，降低长期负债成本。同时，1年期LPR未下调来看，一方面同期限锚定1年期MLF的程度较高；另一方面，短端贷款利率若等比例下调，会加大银行的净息差压力。风险提示：稳增长政策落地不及预期；海外金融市场风险引起全球系统性金融危机。', 'content': 'Key investment events: On February 20, the People\\'s Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) on February 20, 2024 is: 1-year LPR is 3.45%, and 5-year and above LPR is 3.95%. Core point of view: The LPR of more than 5 years has been significantly lowered than expected, which reflects that monetary policy is exerting force and the signal of support for real estate is relatively obvious. Looking forward, combined with the current high domestic real interest rate level, we believe that the first half of the year, especially the second quarter, is still a window for adjusting policy interest rates. On the one hand, the data from January to February mainly began to be disclosed in mid-to-early March, and short-term policies have entered the observation period. There may be clearer path guidance after the two sessions set the tone; on the other hand, the economic growth rate in the second quarter faces a high base of 6.3%. There are three major characteristics of this LPR reduction: 1.25 BP is the largest single reduction since the LPR reform. 2. If the policy interest rate is not lowered, the LPR will be adjusted separately. The 3.1-year LPR has not been adjusted, and only the LPR above 5 years has been lowered, which is an asymmetric interest rate cut. Overall, it releases a relatively positive signal. The maximum single downward adjustment of LPR. The market had previously expected the LPR cut in February, but the historic 25 BP range exceeded market expectations. After all, the net interest margin of commercial banks in Q3 2023 is still at a historical low of 1.73%. Although GDP growth has picked up in the fourth quarter of 2023, the low base has contributed more. Judging from the two-year average growth rate, it has declined compared with the third quarter. The LPR was lowered in February, and the magnitude was higher than expected, reflecting the determination to stabilize growth and implement policies. Multiple measures, including two rounds of deposit interest rate cuts, have created room for LPR cuts. Since 2020, LPR has been lowered only twice without adjusting the policy interest rate, namely in December 2021 and May 2022. Looking back, the decline of LPR over 5 years in May 2022 is mainly affected by the combined impact of a 25 BP cut in the reserve requirement ratio, the central bank\\'s handover of 800 billion yuan in profit balances (equivalent to a 40 BP cut in the reserve requirement ratio), and a 10 BP cut in the upper limit of deposit interest rates; The decline in the 1-year LPR in December 2021 is mainly affected by the decline in bank liability costs driven by two reserve requirement ratio cuts of 50 BP each in July and December. Judging from this round, in terms of quantitative tools, the over-renewed MLF for five consecutive months has accumulated close to 2.1 trillion yuan, and the cumulative reserve requirement ratio reduction has been 75 BP in the past two times. Although it has the effect of reducing debt costs, it may more reflect the currency Coordinate with fiscal policies to meet the liquidity needs of the issuance of 1.39 trillion local government special refinancing bonds and 1 trillion additional government bonds. The two rounds of deposit interest rate reductions in September and December 2023 and the central bank\\'s structural interest rate cuts may be the main factors driving the LPR reduction, creating space for the LPR reduction to a certain extent. The column of the monetary policy report for the fourth quarter of 2023 discusses the interest rate self-control mechanism. The interest rate self-control mechanism, including the market-based adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates, is expected to continue to play an important role and improve the efficiency of interest rate transmission. Asymmetric interest rate cuts stabilize real estate and reduce corporate long-term liability costs. The fourth quarter monetary policy implementation report pointed out that prudent monetary policy must be \"flexible, moderate, precise and effective\", and asymmetric interest rate cuts are an accurate reflection of the tone of monetary policy. On the one hand, the recovery slope of domestic demand is slow and infrastructure is facing constraints. The manufacturing industry alone may not be able to offset the downward pressure on real estate investment due to structural upgrading and transformation. The importance of stabilizing real estate in 2024 remains high. Although first-tier cities have recently launched a new round of loosening policies on purchase restrictions, the year-on-year decline in commercial housing transaction area in January 30 cities narrowed to -6.95% due to the Spring Festival dislocation. However, judging from the year-on-year comparison during the Spring Festival, no trend has yet been seen. of twist. On the other hand, corporate medium and long-term loans may include some urban investment entities, which may alleviate interest payment pressure to a certain extent and reduce long-term liability costs. At the same time, judging from the fact that the 1-year LPR has not been lowered, on the one hand, the degree of anchoring of the 1-year MLF with the same term is relatively high; on the other hand, if the short-end loan interest rate is lowered in equal proportion, it will increase the pressure on banks\\' net interest margins. Risk warning: The implementation of policies to stabilize growth falls short of expectations; overseas financial market risks cause a global systemic financial crisis.', 'authorid': UUID('f33028d3-8791-5b14-80ca-a862e2ba251a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6147272735834122, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'A1OCLDT7DQ2PIUB5UL2I8TLA73VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:16:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'A1OCLDT7DQ2PIUB5UL2I8TLA73VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('dff20dad-7300-5e59-80b2-87ab93127ef3'), 'title': '[Guangdong Open Macro] Unexpected asymmetric interest rate cut: reasons, impact and outlook', 'author': 'Luo Zhiheng, Ma Jiajin', 'orgName': '粤开证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000118', 'orgSName': '粤开证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY8BK56yorJoasDZtJpIQTpM=', 'researcher': '罗志恒,马家进', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245432', '11000375233'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY8BK56yorJoasDZtJpIQTpM=', 'site': 'Guangdong Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '粤开证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622414478_1.pdf?1708449049000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622414478_1.pdf?1708449049000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '[Guangdong Open Macro] Unexpected asymmetric interest rate cut: reasons, impact and outlook', 'originalAuthor': '罗志恒,马家进', 'originalContent': '中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2024年2月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.45%，5年期以上LPR为3.95%。此次LPR调整有两大特点：一是非对称降息，1年期LPR维持不变，5年期以上LPR下调25BP；二是降息幅度超市场预期，25BP的单次下调幅度创LPR改革以来新高，此前5年期以上LPR下调幅度多为5、10、15个BP。风险提示：外部冲击超预期、稳增长政策超预期', 'content': \"The People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) on February 20, 2024 is: 1-year LPR is 3.45%, and 5-year and above LPR is 3.95%. This LPR adjustment has two major characteristics: First, it is an asymmetric interest rate cut, with the 1-year LPR remaining unchanged, and the LPR of more than 5 years being reduced by 25 BP; second, the rate cut exceeds market expectations, and the single reduction of 25 BP is a new high since the LPR reform. Previous LPR cuts of more than 5 years were mostly 5, 10, and 15 BP. Risk warning: External shocks exceed expectations, and policies to stabilize growth exceed expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('3a3f588e-caa1-5e3b-bce3-f7ec5e6b279a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.3686963617801666, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TPBNNH31A0787KTEACQU6VF0CBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:16:50 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TPBNNH31A0787KTEACQU6VF0CBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d333b009-8b20-5805-92d7-7cbc13711ef5'), 'title': 'Interpretation of LPR adjustment: Deposit interest rate is expected to become an \"interest rate anchor\" in stages', 'author': 'Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY0A0lr6aWqL/oZNDTXVkQhc=', 'researcher': '董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY0A0lr6aWqL/oZNDTXVkQhc=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622414380_1.pdf?1708449122000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622414380_1.pdf?1708449122000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of LPR adjustment: Deposit interest rate is expected to become an \"interest rate anchor\" in stages', 'originalAuthor': '董德志', 'originalContent': '事项：2月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.45%，5年期以上LPR为3.95%。本次1年期LPR报价保持不变，但5年期以上调降25BP。评论：结论：本次LPR调降的主客观条件均已具备，在必要性和时点上符合市场预期，但25BP的历史最高幅度信号意义明显，有助于稳定社会预期，提振信心。此外，本次非对称降息的主要目的在于稳定居民和企业的中长期负债成本，进而托底地产并助力化解地方债务工作。前瞻地看，我们认为今年央行工作的重心，是在确保“金融稳定”和“内外均衡”的前提下，更好的降低实体经济融资成本并协同财政发力，通过“双积极”财政货币政策保障全年经济发展目标的达成。一是本次降息可能“预支”银行息差空间，刚性息差约束下，上半年存款利率仍有补充调降的可能。二是考虑到2023年通胀走弱带来实际利率快速反弹等因素，年内LPR仍有10BP及以上调降空间。三是为了帮助财政融资、化债创造适宜的流动性环境，下半年仍有1-2次降准释放长期流动性的空间，幅度或回归25BP的常态。解读：集中力量办大事本次LPR利率调降，必要性和时点上总体符合预期，但力度和结构突出，显现出鲜明的稳地产、稳预期、保主体的决心，是在当前我国经济运行中两难、多难问题增多，宏观调控复杂性和难度上升的情况下，做出的重要逆周期举措。具体来看，有几方面特征值得关注：一是时点上，总体符合预期。1月24日国新办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布降准和下调再贴现利率后指出，这些操作“都将有助于推动信贷定价基准的贷款市场报价利率，也就是我们说的LPR下行”。2月5日降准落地后，可为银行节约成本约88亿元。此外，12月底国有大行牵头调降存款利率也为本次LPR调降做了前期铺垫。二是必要性上，本次降息“开门红”为全年经济企稳向好奠定基础。2023年我国经济经历波浪式发展、曲折式前进，总体回升向好，超额完成去年“两会”制定的增长目标。这也意味着今年经济增长不再具有“低基数”特征，且补偿性消费临近尾声，叠加地方政府债务化解、非税收入下降等结构性周期性因素，保持5%左右的增长需要付出艰苦努力。此外，开年以来我国资本市场表现总体承压，不可低估降息对稳定预期、提振信心的重要意义。三是腾挪空间上，体现出货币政策新思路。当前我国货币政策传导面临的主要约束是呵护银行净息差的同时推动社会综合融资成本稳中有降，这意味着在这一阶段存款利率将扮演比政策利率更为重要的角色。呵护银行净息差具有较强的必要性和现实意义。我国银行净息差从2019年底的2.2%迅速下降至2023年三季度的1.73%，不到四年的时间里下降近50BP，银行息差进一步压缩的空间较为有限。一方面，我国目前仍以间接融资为主，信贷占社融比重长期维持在6成以上，在资本市场有所波动的情况下，银行成为保障经济企稳恢复的稳定水源和重要抓手。另一方面，当前我国“三大风险”进一步向银行体系集中：除中小金融机构风险外，银行也在房地产和地方债务风险化解中扮演重要角色。与此同时，推动社会综合融资成本稳中有降是央行的重要工作目标。2019年8月LPR改革以来，1年LPR累计调降80BP，5年以上LPR调降65BP（不含本次），有力推动了实体经济融资成本的下降。此前，LPR的调降绝大部分与MLF等政策利率挂钩，单独调降仅有三次（2019年9月，2021年12月，2022年5月），但需要指出的是，由于与政策利率挂钩的资金成本在银行负债端占比较小，因此此前LPR调降更多以银行向实体经济“让利”的形式实现，但当前的刚性息差约束下，这种方式难以为继。此时，若在保持银行息差基本稳定的前提下，完全通过降低OMO/MLF等政策利率承担调降LPR和贷款利率的成本，则性价比较低，同样因为银行资产端与LPR挂钩的贷款比重较高而负债端与政策利率挂钩的负债占比较低。特别在目前美联储正式“掉头”开始降息前，内外均衡压力较强的背景下，可能“事倍功半”。因此，更好发挥存款利率市场化调整机制作用，进一步调降占银行负债“大头”的存款利率成为未来一段时间内降低融资成本的重要选项。事实上，自2022年以来，每次LPR调降前后都伴随着（大行）存款利率调降。四是��降方式上，结构特征鲜明，力求稳定居民和企业的中长期负债成本。如前所述，在有限弹药等约束', 'content': 'Matter: On February 20, the People\\'s Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) is: 1-year LPR is 3.45%, and 5-year and above LPR is 3.95%. The 1-year LPR quotation remains unchanged this time, but the 5-year and above LPR quotations are reduced by 25BP. Comment: Conclusion: The subjective and objective conditions for this LPR reduction have been met, and it is in line with market expectations in terms of necessity and timing. However, the historically high amplitude signal of 25BP has obvious significance, helping to stabilize social expectations and boost confidence. In addition, the main purpose of this asymmetric interest rate cut is to stabilize the medium- and long-term debt costs of residents and enterprises, thereby underpinning real estate and helping to resolve local debt. Looking forward, we believe that the focus of the central bank\\'s work this year is to better reduce the financing costs of the real economy and coordinate fiscal efforts on the premise of ensuring \"financial stability\" and \"internal and external balance\" through \"double-active\" fiscal and monetary policies. Ensure the achievement of economic development goals throughout the year. First, this interest rate cut may \"advance\" bank interest margin space. Under the constraints of rigid interest margins, there is still the possibility of additional reductions in deposit interest rates in the first half of the year. Second, taking into account factors such as the rapid rebound in real interest rates caused by weakening inflation in 2023, there is still room for LPR to be reduced by 10BP or more during the year. Third, in order to help fiscal financing and debt reduction to create a suitable liquidity environment, there is still room for 1-2 RRR cuts in the second half of the year to release long-term liquidity, and the amplitude may return to the normal state of 25BP. Interpretation: Focus on doing big things. This LPR interest rate cut is generally in line with expectations in terms of necessity and timing, but the intensity and structure are outstanding. It shows a clear determination to stabilize real estate, stabilize expectations, and protect the main body. It is an important step in the current economic operation of our country. Important counter-cyclical measures were taken in the context of increasing dilemmas and difficulties, and the complexity and difficulty of macro-control. Specifically, there are several characteristics worthy of attention: First, in terms of timing, it is generally in line with expectations. At the press conference of the State Council Information Office on January 24, after announcing the RRR cut and the rediscount rate cut, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People’s Bank of China, pointed out that these operations “will help to promote the loan market quotation rate of the credit pricing benchmark, which is our It’s said that LPR is going down.” After the RRR cut is implemented on February 5, it will save banks approximately 8.8 billion yuan in costs. In addition, major state-owned banks took the lead in lowering deposit interest rates at the end of December, which also paved the way for this LPR reduction. Second, in terms of necessity, this interest rate cut is a \"good start\" and lays the foundation for economic stabilization and improvement throughout the year. In 2023, my country\\'s economy has experienced wave-like development and tortuous progress, and has generally rebounded for the better, exceeding the growth targets set by last year\\'s \"Two Sessions\". This also means that this year\\'s economic growth no longer has the characteristics of a \"low base\", and compensatory consumption is coming to an end. Coupled with structural cyclical factors such as the resolution of local government debt and the decline in non-tax revenue, maintaining a growth of about 5% requires hard work. . In addition, the performance of my country\\'s capital market has been under overall pressure since the beginning of the year, and the importance of interest rate cuts in stabilizing expectations and boosting confidence cannot be underestimated. The third is to free up space and reflect new ideas on monetary policy. The main constraint currently facing my country\\'s monetary policy transmission is to protect bank net interest margins while promoting a steady decline in comprehensive social financing costs, which means that deposit interest rates will play a more important role than policy interest rates at this stage. Protecting banks\\' net interest margins has strong necessity and practical significance. The net interest margin of my country\\'s banks dropped rapidly from 2.2% at the end of 2019 to 1.73% in the third quarter of 2023, a drop of nearly 50BP in less than four years. There is limited room for further compression of bank interest margins. On the one hand, my country still relies mainly on indirect financing, and the proportion of credit in social financing has remained at more than 60% for a long time. In the face of fluctuations in the capital market, banks have become a stable source of water and an important starting point to ensure the stabilization and recovery of the economy. On the other hand, my country\\'s \"three major risks\" are currently further concentrated in the banking system: in addition to the risks of small and medium-sized financial institutions, banks also play an important role in resolving real estate and local debt risks. At the same time, promoting a steady and steady decline in comprehensive social financing costs is an important goal of the central bank. Since the LPR reform in August 2019, the LPR has been reduced by 80 BP cumulatively in one year, and by 65 BP in more than five years (excluding this time), which has effectively promoted the reduction of financing costs in the real economy. Previously, most of the LPR reductions were linked to policy interest rates such as MLF, and there were only three separate reductions (September 2019, December 2021, May 2022). However, it should be pointed out that because it is linked to policy interest rates The cost of capital accounts for a small proportion of the bank\\'s liability side. Therefore, previous LPR reductions were mostly realized in the form of banks \"giving profits\" to the real economy. However, under the current rigid interest rate constraints, this approach is unsustainable. At this time, if the cost of lowering LPR and loan interest rates is fully borne by lowering OMO/MLF and other policy interest rates while keeping bank interest margins basically stable, the cost performance will be low, also because the proportion of bank assets linked to LPR loans The proportion of liabilities linked to policy interest rates is relatively high and the proportion of liabilities linked to policy interest rates is relatively low. Especially before the Federal Reserve officially \"turns around\" and begins to cut interest rates, under the background of strong internal and external equilibrium pressure, it may be \"half the result with twice the effort.\" Therefore, making better use of the market-based adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates and further lowering deposit interest rates, which account for the majority of bank liabilities, has become an important option for reducing financing costs in the coming period. In fact, since 2022, every LPR cut has been accompanied by a cut in (major bank) deposit interest rates. Fourth, the reduction method has distinctive structural features and strives to stabilize the medium- and long-term debt costs of residents and enterprises. As mentioned before, under the constraints of limited ammunition etc.', 'authorid': UUID('7f0ba462-39fa-5efc-b2aa-f8b8339a39b2'), 'sentimentScore': -0.029635950922966003, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '30J9CKH9PIKS5M7QG5L35QOC6RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:17:33 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '30J9CKH9PIKS5M7QG5L35QOC6RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a358f133-179c-5f51-9abe-80aab51c5e0b'), 'title': 'Macro Comment: Four Questions on “Asymmetric” Interest Rate Cuts', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Chang Yixin', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY+FZjmK7jkOrw4/L9PV/ye8=', 'researcher': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000387731'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY+FZjmK7jkOrw4/L9PV/ye8=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622414384_1.pdf?1708447469000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622414384_1.pdf?1708447469000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: Four Questions on “Asymmetric” Interest Rate Cuts', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'originalContent': '事项：2024年2月20日，央行公布的1年期LPR报价维持不变，5年期以上LPR下调25BP。平安观点：1、央行为何此时降息？1）地产销售开年弱势。今年初至2月19日，我们统计的61个样本城市新房销售面积较去年同期回落29%；克而瑞统计的1月百强房企销售操盘金额同比降34.2%。春节假期国内出行火热、消费量增，新房销售却不尽如人意，正月初一至初十的商品房销售农历同比增速为-43%，四五线城市返乡置业“缺席”形成拖累。2）实际利率升至潜在增速附近。尽管2023年四季度一般贷款、个人按揭贷款名义利率均降至历史低位，但经通胀调整的实际利���水平仍然较高。2024年1月CPI同比增速为-0.8%，较上月回落0.5个百分点，意味着4.35%的一般贷款名义利率将对应5.15%的实际利率，或已超出当前中国潜在GDP增速，不利于内生融资需求的充分释放。2、如何平衡降息与银行息差？2023年二季度货币政策执行报告中，专栏1为“合理看待我国商业银行利润水平”。可见，保持商业银行净息差基本稳定，已成为降息的一项考量。本次LPR报价下调之前，“稳息差”已有铺垫。1）降低银行计息负债成本。一方面，存款利率下调。2023年12月下旬，国有大行率先调降挂牌存款利率，股份行、城农商行陆续跟进。另一方面，存单利率回落。去年12月中旬，1年期股份行同业存单发行利率一度接近2.7%高位。跨年后央行流动性投放力度较大，资金利率向政策利率回归，同业存单发行利率逐步降至1年期MLF利率之下，截止2月19日最新数据为2.28%，客观上也有助于降低商业银行负债成本。2）降准和结构性工具支持。央行今年1月下旬调降支农支小再贷款和再贴现利率25bp，2月初降准50bp，去年四季度下调PSL利率15bp（详见结构性工具情况表），我们测算，分别节约商业银行年化资金成本88亿元、74亿元和49亿元，三项政策合计约可提振商业银行净息差0.95bp。3、为何更大幅度调降5年期LPR？本次5年期LPR报价下调25bp，为历史最大幅度调整，一年期却持平于此前。这既是“稳息差”约束下的腾挪平衡，又暗含“曲线平坦化”的政策诉求。一方面，着眼于中长期，更大力度支持重点项目的融资需求。注意到，地方专项债的剩余平均年限已从2019年末的5.2年升至2023年末的10.9年，体现重点项目的融资和偿还久期明显拉长。另一方面，维持短端利率在合理水平，也有“防空转”的政策意图。在期限利差较大的情形下，无论是非银机构还是优质企业，都存在以短期低息借款套取中长期高息收益的可能性，或削弱金融对实体经济的支持力度。需要指出的是，债券和存款市场期限利差已率先走向“平坦”。1）去年12月，国有大行定期存款利率调整时，三年及五年期限挂牌利率均调降25bp，而一年及以内期限定期存款挂牌利率仅调降10bp，已能够体现不同期限利率调整的非对称性。2）从债券市场利率看，无论是国债、国开债还是AAA级中短票，5Y-1Y期限利差普遍低于本次调降前75bp的LPR期限利差（截止2024年2月19日，三者中债估值收益率差分别为39bp、40bp和32bp）。在2月上旬央行公布的货币政策执行报告中，曾提及“合理把握债券与信贷两个最大融资市场的关系”，期限利差的趋近也有必要。4、MLF降息缘何落空？商业银行的LPR报价以“MLF+点差”的方式呈现，2月LPR报价虽有明显调整，MLF利率却维持不变。在美联储降息预期明显调整的背景下，短期内保持MLF政策利率不变，有助于维持人民币汇率的相对稳定。春节期间，美国公布的1月CPI、核心CPI、PPI表现均强于预期。服务价格的粘性，以及生产成本的回升，似乎提醒市场，“供给驱动型”通胀的回落空间已然有限，美国通胀能否顺利回落、美联储宽松的节奏和幅度更添不确定性。从CME数据看，市场对美联储降息的预期已从2月7日的全年降息5次，降温至2月17日的全年降息3.9次。在此背景下，10年美债利率一度升破4.3%，美元指数一度上至接近105，对人民币汇率形成潜在压力。往后看，美联储仍有望于二季度开启降息，美债利率和美元指数或已基本处于全年顶部（详见我们报告《“类紧缩交易”何时休？》），均有助于人民币汇率趋稳，全年视角下中国货币政策总量支持还有空间。风险提示：海外经济超预期衰退；美联储货币政策超预期变化；国内宏观政策力度或落地效果不及预期；国际地缘局势变化超预期等。', 'content': 'Matter: On February 20, 2024, the 1-year LPR quotation announced by the central bank remained unchanged, and the LPR price of 5 years and above was reduced by 25BP. Ping An’s perspective: 1. Why did the central bank cut interest rates at this time? 1) Real estate sales started the year weakly. From the beginning of this year to February 19, the sales area of \\u200b\\u200bnew homes in 61 sample cities we counted dropped by 29% compared with the same period last year; the sales volume of the top 100 real estate companies in January according to CRIC dropped 34.2% year-on-year. During the Spring Festival holiday, domestic travel was booming and consumption increased, but new home sales were not satisfactory. The lunar calendar year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales from the first to the tenth day of the first lunar month was -43%, and the \"absence\" of returning home buyers in fourth- and fifth-tier cities was a drag. 2) Real interest rates rise to near the potential growth rate. Although nominal interest rates on general loans and personal mortgage loans fell to historical lows in the fourth quarter of 2023, the real interest rates adjusted for inflation are still relatively high. The year-on-year CPI growth rate in January 2024 was -0.8%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, which means that the nominal interest rate for general loans of 4.35% will correspond to an actual interest rate of 5.15%, which may have exceeded China\\'s current potential GDP growth rate, which is not conducive to Full release of endogenous financing needs. 2. How to balance interest rate cuts and bank interest spreads? In the monetary policy implementation report for the second quarter of 2023, column 1 is \"A reasonable view of the profit level of my country\\'s commercial banks.\" It can be seen that keeping the net interest margin of commercial banks basically stable has become a consideration for interest rate cuts. Before this LPR quotation reduction, the \"stable interest rate spread\" has been laid. 1) Reduce the cost of bank interest-bearing liabilities. On the one hand, deposit interest rates have been lowered. In late December 2023, major state-owned banks took the lead in lowering listed deposit interest rates, and joint-stock banks and urban and rural commercial banks followed suit. On the other hand, certificate of deposit interest rates have fallen. In mid-December last year, the one-year interbank certificate of deposit issuance rate was close to a high of 2.7%. After the New Year\\'s Eve, the central bank invested more liquidity, the capital interest rate returned to the policy interest rate, and the interest rate for the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit gradually dropped below the 1-year MLF interest rate. The latest data as of February 19 was 2.28%, which objectively also helped to reduce the Commercial bank liability costs. 2) Reserve requirement reduction and structural tool support. In late January this year, the central bank lowered the interest rates for small-scale re-lending and rediscounting by 25bp, and in early February it cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50bp. In the fourth quarter of last year, it lowered the PSL interest rate by 15bp (see the table of structural tools for details). We estimate that each will save commercial banks annual savings. The total cost of reducing capital is 8.8 billion yuan, 7.4 billion yuan, and 4.9 billion yuan. The total of the three policies can boost the net interest margin of commercial banks by approximately 0.95bp. 3. Why lower the 5-year LPR more significantly? This time, the 5-year LPR quotation was reduced by 25bp, which was the largest adjustment in history, but the one-year LPR price remained the same as before. This is not only a dynamic balance under the constraints of \"stabilizing interest rate differentials\", but also implies the policy demand of \"curve flattening\". On the one hand, focusing on the medium and long term, greater efforts will be made to support the financing needs of key projects. It is noted that the remaining average life of local special bonds has increased from 5.2 years at the end of 2019 to 10.9 years at the end of 2023, reflecting that the financing and repayment duration of key projects have significantly lengthened. On the other hand, maintaining short-term interest rates at a reasonable level also has the policy intention of \"preventing idling\". In the case of large term interest rate spreads, both non-bank institutions and high-quality enterprises may use short-term low-interest borrowings to obtain medium- and long-term high-interest returns, which may weaken financial support for the real economy. It should be pointed out that the term spreads in the bond and deposit markets have taken the lead in becoming “flat”. 1) In December last year, when the time deposit interest rates of major state-owned banks were adjusted, the listed interest rates for three-year and five-year terms were both reduced by 25bp, while the listed interest rates for time deposits of one year and less were only reduced by 10bp, which can reflect the adjustment of interest rates of different terms. asymmetry. 2) From the perspective of bond market interest rates, whether it is treasury bonds, CDB bonds or AAA-rated short and medium-term bills, the 5Y-1Y term spread is generally lower than the 75bp LPR term spread before this reduction (as of February 19, 2024 , the difference between the three ChinaBond valuation yields is 39bp, 40bp and 32bp respectively). In the monetary policy implementation report released by the central bank in early February, it was mentioned that \"a reasonable grasp of the relationship between the two largest financing markets, bonds and credit,\" and the convergence of term interest rate spreads are also necessary. 4. Why did the MLF interest rate cut fail? The LPR quotations of commercial banks are presented in the form of \"MLF + spread\". Although the LPR quotations were significantly adjusted in February, the MLF interest rate remained unchanged. Against the background of significant adjustments in the Fed\\'s interest rate cut expectations, keeping the MLF policy rate unchanged in the short term will help maintain the relative stability of the RMB exchange rate. During the Spring Festival, the January CPI, core CPI, and PPI released by the United States were all stronger than expected. The stickiness of service prices and the rebound in production costs seem to remind the market that the room for a fall in \"supply-driven\" inflation is limited. Whether U.S. inflation can fall back smoothly and the pace and extent of the Fed\\'s easing add to the uncertainty. According to CME data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have cooled from 5 rate cuts for the year on February 7 to 3.9 rate cuts for the year on February 17. Against this background, the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate once rose above 4.3%, and the U.S. dollar index once rose to close to 105, creating potential pressure on the RMB exchange rate. Looking forward, the Federal Reserve is still expected to start cutting interest rates in the second quarter, and U.S. bond interest rates and the U.S. dollar index may be basically at the top of the year (for details, see our report \"When will the \"quasi-tightening trade\" end?\"), which will help the RMB exchange rate. Stabilizing, there is still room for total support from China\\'s monetary policy from a full-year perspective. Risk warning: Overseas economic recession exceeds expectations; the Federal Reserve\\'s monetary policy changes beyond expectations; domestic macroeconomic policies may be less effective than expected; international geopolitical situations change beyond expectations, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('149306d1-3d93-5b17-941a-f5aa3a00dc04'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9388199504464865, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8NKVKQTVV81VVMEB833IICGFQNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:17:36 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8NKVKQTVV81VVMEB833IICGFQNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9fe435d2-ce51-57fd-b60b-0bc78dab618c'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the downward adjustment of LPR quotation in February 2024: the 5-year LPR is lowered and the policy continues to strengthen', 'author': 'Zhang Jun, Xu Dongshi, Zhan Lu', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY5Ul6vTqA3UkthfckyGn/KQ=', 'researcher': '章俊,许冬石,詹璐', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000185520', '11000208436'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY5Ul6vTqA3UkthfckyGn/KQ=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622411755_1.pdf?1708446178000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622411755_1.pdf?1708446178000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the downward adjustment of LPR quotation in February 2024: the 5-year LPR is lowered and the policy continues to strengthen', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,许冬石,詹璐', 'originalContent': '核心观点：5年期LPR下调25BP，力度超预期。本月中期政策利率（1年期MLF利率）和1年期LPR均保持不变，5年期LPR单独调降25BP。上一次出现只单独调降5年期LPR的情况是2022年5月，当月MLF和1年期LPR均不变，5年期LPR下调15BP。为什么5年期LPR下降？：本次调降前，5年期LPR累计降幅小于1年期，但国债收益率曲线走平，长端下行更多。2019年9月至本次调降前，1年期LPR和MLF的累计降幅一致，5年期LPR的累计降幅少15BP。但国债收益率曲线走平，10年期与1年期期限利差从2023年初至今收窄20BP，长端下行幅度更大。银行资金成本的下降已为降息打开空间。1、存款利率的下调。2023年12月进行了近年最大幅度一次存款利率下调，收益率曲线全面下移；2、降准节约成本。2024年1月下调支农支小再贷款、再贴现利率25BP；2024年2月实施降准50BP，释放约1万亿元中长期低成本资金，节约银行成本；3、流动性合理充裕带来银行资金成本明显下行。自2023年9月开始，央行加大MLF超量续作力度，并两次下调存款准备金率，呵护银行流动性合理充裕，2024年1月开始资金成本快速下行。风险溢价下行推动LPR报价下行。中债AA级和AAA级企业债收益率的利差收窄。温州民间融资综合利率从2023年12月开始快速下行。显示风险溢价下行。供求关系推动LPR报价下行。2024年2月票据利率下行；2月19日shibor007收于1.7850%，回到政策利率之下。显示资金供给较为充裕。5年期LPR下调对经济和资本市场的影响：“促消费、稳投资、扩内需”，拉动经济稳步回升。5年期LPR与房地产贷款和企业中长期融资关系更为密切，起到托底经济增长的作用。缓解债务压力，配合财政政策协同发力。新一轮PSL重启、未来可能推出的超长期特别国债、“三大工程”需要长期的低成本资金支持。国有土地使用权出让收入同比下降的背景下，未来三年地方政府债券和城投债到期偿还量较大，降息可以减轻政府债务偿还压力。稳定房地产预期。虽然已基本完成存量房贷利率下调、信贷政策不断优化，但2023年1-11月，新发放个人住房贷款利率为4.1%，与当前持有住房的资产回报率相比仍然偏高。房地产销售数据并未出现趋势性好转。人民币汇率可能面临压力，但冲击有限。降息使得中美利差倒挂扩张可能给汇率带来压力。但美联储大概率已结束紧缩周期，2024年年中可能开启降息周期，中美货币政策周期错位改善，汇率压力逐步缓解。年内可能再次降息，时间点仍是内外兼顾的相机抉择。逆周期和跨周期调节首先意味着未来利率的下行。央行利率调控遵循着黄金法则，潜在增速下行决定我国利率水平下行。其次实体经济的总资产报酬率决定贷款利率水平，当前利率仍有调降的空间。风险提示1.对政策理解不到位的的风险2.美联储货币政策超预期的风险3.中国货币政策超预期的风险4.金融市场的风险', 'content': 'Core view: The 5-year LPR was lowered by 25BP, which was stronger than expected. This month’s mid-term policy rate (1-year MLF interest rate) and 1-year LPR remained unchanged, while the 5-year LPR was individually lowered by 25BP. The last time that only the 5-year LPR was lowered alone was in May 2022. Both the MLF and the 1-year LPR remained unchanged that month, and the 5-year LPR was lowered by 15BP. Why did the 5-year LPR fall? : Before this cut, the cumulative decline in the 5-year LPR was less than that of the 1-year LPR, but the government bond yield curve was flattening and the long-term downward trend was even greater. From September 2019 to before this reduction, the cumulative decline of 1-year LPR and MLF was the same, and the cumulative decline of 5-year LPR was 15 BP less. However, the Treasury yield curve has flattened, and the spread between the 10-year and 1-year terms has narrowed by 20BP from the beginning of 2023 to the present, and the long-term downward trend is even greater. Falling bank funding costs have opened room for interest rate cuts. 1. The reduction of deposit interest rates. In December 2023, the largest deposit interest rate cut in recent years was carried out, and the yield curve moved downward across the board; 2. Reducing the reserve requirement to save costs. In January 2024, the re-lending and rediscount interest rates for supporting agriculture and small businesses will be reduced by 25 BP; in February 2024, a 50 BP reduction will be implemented to release about 1 trillion yuan of medium and long-term low-cost funds and save bank costs; 3. Reasonable and abundant liquidity will bring Bank funding costs have dropped significantly. Since September 2023, the central bank has stepped up its efforts to renew MLF in excess and lowered the deposit reserve ratio twice to ensure reasonable and sufficient bank liquidity. Funding costs will begin to decline rapidly in January 2024. The decline in risk premium drives LPR quotations downward. The spread between ChinaBond\\'s AA-rated and AAA-rated corporate bond yields narrowed. Wenzhou\\'s comprehensive private financing interest rate will begin to decline rapidly from December 2023. Showing a downward trend in risk premiums. The relationship between supply and demand drives LPR quotations downward. The bill interest rate will decline in February 2024; on February 19, shibor007 closed at 1.7850%, returning to below the policy interest rate. It shows that the supply of funds is relatively abundant. The impact of the 5-year LPR cut on the economy and capital market: \"promoting consumption, stabilizing investment, and expanding domestic demand\", driving a steady economic recovery. The 5-year LPR is more closely related to real estate loans and corporate mid- and long-term financing, and plays a role in underpinning economic growth. Ease debt pressure and coordinate efforts with fiscal policy. A new round of PSL restart, the possible launch of ultra-long-term special government bonds in the future, and the \"three major projects\" require long-term, low-cost financial support. Against the background of a year-on-year decline in revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights, the amount of local government bonds and urban investment bonds due to be repaid will be larger in the next three years. Interest rate cuts can reduce the pressure on government debt repayments. Stabilize real estate expectations. Although the reduction of existing mortgage interest rates has been basically completed and credit policies have been continuously optimized, the interest rate for newly issued personal housing loans from January to November 2023 was 4.1%, which is still high compared with the current return on assets of housing holdings. Real estate sales data did not show a trend improvement. The RMB exchange rate may be under pressure, but the impact will be limited. The interest rate cut has caused the interest rate gap between China and the United States to expand inversely, which may put pressure on the exchange rate. However, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve has ended its tightening cycle and may start an interest rate cut cycle in mid-2024. The misalignment of the monetary policy cycles between China and the United States has improved, and exchange rate pressure has gradually eased. Interest rates may be cut again this year, but the timing is still a prudent decision that takes both internal and external considerations into account. Countercyclical and intercyclical adjustments first mean a decline in future interest rates. The central bank\\'s interest rate regulation follows the golden rule. The decline in potential growth determines the decline in my country\\'s interest rate level. Secondly, the return on total assets of the real economy determines the level of loan interest rates, and there is still room for lower interest rates. Risk warning 1. The risk of insufficient understanding of the policy 2. The risk of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy exceeding expectations 3. The risk of China’s monetary policy exceeding expectations 4. The risk of financial markets', 'authorid': UUID('9691e2af-b977-525d-9856-67ec9bb87ebf'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8832810986787081, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '6GIK5S5UDFEVKB81CPV83Q05U3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:17:39 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '6GIK5S5UDFEVKB81CPV83Q05U3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f013d8b2-5d7e-5f6f-bd52-405babc4f096'), 'title': 'Global Volatility Data and Foreign Exchange Comprehensive Report: Pay attention to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting', 'author': 'Shi Jialiang, Feng Shidian', 'orgName': '方正中期期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066668', 'orgSName': '方正中期期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuYx+STZ0qFo0hFcDqFJyC7uE=', 'researcher': '史家亮,冯世佃', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000300434', '11000279638'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuYx+STZ0qFo0hFcDqFJyC7uE=', 'site': 'Founder Medium-Term Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '方正中期期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622410505_1.pdf?1708441950000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622410505_1.pdf?1708441950000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Global Volatility Data and Foreign Exchange Comprehensive Report: Pay attention to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting', 'originalAuthor': '史家亮,冯世佃', 'originalContent': '宏观要闻分析：关注美联储货币政策会议纪要：本周经济数据偏少，关注美欧2月制造业和服务业PMI数据，美初请失业金人数表现；风险事件重点关注美联储货币政策会议纪要和美联储官员讲话。美国经济整体偏下行态势或逐步显现，美国2月制造业和服务业PMI或出现回落，初请失业金人数继续走升，为美联储政策转向宽松提供新的依据，但是不会改变近期美联储官员的偏鹰派讲话，美联储官员讲话仍会偏鹰派，强调未来降息的可能以及当前通胀的不确定性带来的政策维持高位的必要性，美联储会议纪要预计会中性略偏鹰，强鹰出现概率低，当前已经被市场所计价，故对美元指数和美债收益率的利多影响相对有限。欧元区经济处于底部有边际修复的迹象，预计2月制造业和服务业PMI将会继续边际好转，对于欧洲央行货币政策而言形成利好影响，预计欧洲央行6月降息可能性大。外汇数据分析与解读：美元指数：美国市场休市，美元指数呈现震荡运行态势，美元指数跌0.02%报104.25。美元指数近期表现偏强，但是再度突破105关口可能性小；美元指数反弹空间有限，后续将延续震荡偏弱走势，关注美联储政策调整预期。欧元/美元，美元指数小幅回落利多欧元，欧元兑美元涨0.02%报1.0779。近期强调欧元回落不改整体偏强行情，欧洲央行维持偏鹰货币政策基调，叠加美指高位后续会回落，欧元震荡走强行情将会持续，���至1.12上方可能性大，下方关注1.07，逢低做多依然合适。英镑/美元：英镑呈现震荡调整态势，英镑兑美元跌0.06%报1.2597。英镑冲高回落但是不改整体偏强行情，随着美元指数高位回落，英镑上行行情将会持续，英镑再度回到涨至1.3上方可能性依然较大，下方关注1.25，逢低做多依然合适。美元/日元：尽管美元指数表现偏弱形成利多，美元兑日元跌0.04%报150.14。日元再度大幅贬值可能性偏小，日元继续下跌空间已经相对有限，可继续布局日元多单。美元/离岸人民币：人民币延续震荡运行行情，美元兑离岸人民币跌0.02%至7.2113。政策差与经济差等因素影响下，上方再度回到7.3上方可能性小，美元/人民币随着美指高位回落预期将会走强，未来回到7以内概率大；中美基本面的变化趋势，两国货币政策调整预期，美元指数走势以及中美贸易关系等因素考量，2024年人民币将会呈现升值走势，主运行区间为6.7-7.3。', 'content': \"Macro news analysis: Pay attention to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting: there is a lack of economic data this week, pay attention to the February manufacturing and service PMI data in the United States and Europe, and the performance of the number of initial jobless claims in the United States; for risk events, focus on the minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and the Federal Reserve Officials speak. The overall downward trend of the U.S. economy may gradually emerge. The U.S. manufacturing and service industry PMI may fall back in February, and the number of initial jobless claims continues to rise, providing new basis for the Fed's policy to shift to easing, but it will not change the recent policy of Fed officials. The speech of Fed officials will still be hawkish, emphasizing the possibility of future interest rate cuts and the need to maintain high policies due to the uncertainty of current inflation. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting are expected to be neutral and slightly hawkish, with a strong hawk appearing. The probability is low and has already been priced in by the market, so the positive impact on the U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields is relatively limited. The Eurozone economy is at the bottom and there are signs of marginal recovery. It is expected that the manufacturing and service PMI will continue to improve marginally in February, which will have a positive impact on the European Central Bank's monetary policy. It is expected that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates in June. Foreign exchange data analysis and interpretation: U.S. dollar index: The U.S. market was closed, and the U.S. dollar index showed a volatile trend. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.02% to 104.25. The U.S. dollar index has performed relatively strongly recently, but it is unlikely to break through the 105 mark again; the U.S. dollar index has limited room for rebound, and will continue to fluctuate and weaken in the future. Pay attention to expectations for Fed policy adjustments. EUR/USD, the U.S. dollar index fell slightly, which was bullish for the euro. The euro rose 0.02% against the U.S. dollar to 1.0779. Recently, it has been emphasized that the fall of the euro will not change the overall strong market. The European Central Bank maintains the hawkish monetary policy tone. Superimposed on the highs of the US index, it will fall later. The euro's volatile and strong market will continue. It is likely to rise above 1.12. Below, focus on 1.07 and hunt for dips. Going long is still appropriate. GBP/USD: GBP showed a volatile adjustment trend, with GBP/USD falling 0.06% to 1.2597. The pound fell back after rising, but the overall strong trend remains unchanged. As the US dollar index falls back from its highs, the pound's upward trend will continue. It is still more likely that the pound will rise above 1.3 again. Focus on 1.25 below. It is still appropriate to go long on dips. . USD/JPY: Despite the bullish performance of the U.S. dollar index, the U.S. dollar fell 0.04% against the yen to 150.14. The possibility of another sharp depreciation of the yen is relatively small. The space for the yen to continue to fall is relatively limited, so we can continue to place long yen orders. USD/Offshore RMB: The RMB continued to fluctuate, with the USD/CNH falling 0.02% to 7.2113. Affected by factors such as policy differences and economic differences, it is unlikely that the upper limit will return to above 7.3 again. The USD/CNY is expected to strengthen as the U.S. dollar index falls from its highs, and the probability of returning to less than 7 in the future is high; the changing trend of Sino-US fundamentals, Taking into account factors such as expectations for monetary policy adjustments between the two countries, the trend of the US dollar index, and Sino-US trade relations, the RMB will show an appreciation trend in 2024, with the main operating range being 6.7-7.3.\", 'authorid': UUID('0c819b3a-444f-5563-b739-122d2abae6c2'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9155684867873788, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'V7O10LCG9TQ05M7LVFD9F52GEJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:17:42 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'V7O10LCG9TQ05M7LVFD9F52GEJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7ebddd22-df5b-5a84-b315-d8418216ba2d'), 'title': 'Macro information tracking', 'author': 'Chen Li', 'orgName': '川财证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000204', 'orgSName': '川财证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY7o1CmiczJ35G5+sldBOMeM=', 'researcher': '陈雳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000174919'], 'count': 13, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY7o1CmiczJ35G5+sldBOMeM=', 'site': 'Chuancai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '川财证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622410243_1.pdf?1708441362000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622410243_1.pdf?1708441362000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro information tracking', 'originalAuthor': '陈雳', 'originalContent': '宏观政策财政部：拟续发行2024年记账式附息（二期）国债（1年期）财政部决定第一次续发行2024年记账式附息(二期)国债(1年期)。从2024年1月25日开始计息；票面利率1.96%；到期一次还本付息，2025年1月25日(节假日顺延)偿还本金并支付利息。竞争性招标面值总额990亿元，不进行甲类成员追加投标。2024年2月21日招标，招标结束至2月22日进行分销，2月26日起与之前发行的同期国债合并上市交易。（财政部官网）宏观动态新春“第一会”：大省“挑大梁”从地方新举措看开年推进高质量发展2月18日，龙年春节后首个工作日，广东、山东、安徽、辽宁、河北等多省纷纷召开新春“第一会”，亮目标、谈部署、晒方法，围绕发展新质生产力、优化营商环境、深化高水平对外开放等工作，明确一揽子新举措，吹响2024年拼经济稳增长、加快高质量发展的号角。作为全国首个“13万亿大省”，广东定下了2024年GDP增长5%的预期目标；辽宁全省优化营商环境打赢攻坚之战动员大会，提出了确保经济增速高于全国水平的目标。新春“第一会”既是亮目标比决心，也在亮思路晒办法。细看多地提出的2024年“任务清单”，从推动产业科技创新到加快开辟新赛道，以科技创新引领现代化产业体系建设被放在重要位置。（经济参考报）', 'content': 'Macro Policy Ministry of Finance: Plans to renew the issuance of 2024 book-entry interest-bearing (second phase) treasury bonds (1-year term). The Ministry of Finance has decided to renew the issuance of 2024 book-entry interest-bearing (second phase) treasury bonds (1-year term) for the first time. . Interest will be calculated from January 25, 2024; the coupon rate is 1.96%; the principal and interest will be paid in one lump sum at maturity, and the principal and interest will be repaid on January 25, 2025 (postponed during holidays). The total face value of competitive bidding is 99 billion yuan, and no additional bidding will be conducted by Class A members. The bidding will be held on February 21, 2024. The bidding will be completed until February 22 for distribution. From February 26, it will be merged with the previously issued treasury bonds of the same period and listed for trading. (Official website of the Ministry of Finance) Macro News \"First Meeting\" of the New Year: Major provinces \"take the lead\" from the perspective of new local measures to promote high-quality development at the beginning of the year. On February 18, the first working day after the Spring Festival in the Year of the Dragon, Guangdong, Shandong, Anhui, and Liaoning Many provinces, including Hebei and Hebei, have held the \"First Meeting\" of the New Year to set goals, discuss deployments, and expose methods. They will clarify a package of new measures around developing new productive forces, optimizing the business environment, and deepening high-level opening up to the outside world to sound the 2024 The clarion call for steady economic growth and accelerating high-quality development every year. As the country\\'s first \"13 trillion province\", Guangdong has set an expected GDP growth target of 5% in 2024; Liaoning Province\\'s mobilization meeting to optimize the business environment and win the battle proposed to ensure that the economic growth rate is higher than that of the country level goals. The \"first meeting\" of the New Year is not only to clarify goals and determination, but also to clarify ideas and methods. Taking a closer look at the \"task lists\" proposed by many places for 2024, from promoting industrial technological innovation to accelerating the opening of new tracks, leading the construction of a modern industrial system with technological innovation is placed in an important position. (Economic Information Newspaper)', 'authorid': UUID('267e0858-7a39-5196-be76-43e80fed6dc6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.022795080207288265, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'DH9A08FI091KOQMGKN8ICL9ADJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:17:44 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'DH9A08FI091KOQMGKN8ICL9ADJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7ec7de06-433a-52fb-92cf-d65c020b0a83'), 'title': 'Comments on February LPR quotation: Three reasons for the sharp reduction in the 5-year period', 'author': 'Zhu Qibing, Sun Deji', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuYxKfqcZFpqWZAM4mVYXjDyU=', 'researcher': '朱启兵,孙德基', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000224223', '11000296533'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuYxKfqcZFpqWZAM4mVYXjDyU=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622410162_1.pdf?1708440903000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622410162_1.pdf?1708440903000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on February LPR quotation: Three reasons for the sharp reduction in the 5-year period', 'originalAuthor': '朱启兵,孙德基', 'originalContent': '事件：中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2024年2月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.45%，5年期以上LPR为3.95%。本次5年期LPR单月调降幅度为历史最高，我们认为后续三点需要关注：1.LPR非对称下调且5年期LPR调整力度较大，根源仍在于房地产市场表现不佳，关注后续城市房地产融资协调机制等房地产政策落地情况与商品房销售水平；2.目前货币政策发力点聚焦于推进存款利率市场化，以带动整体利率水平下行，预计年内存款挂牌利率仍会进一步下调；3.货币政策方面，从2月份政策导向来看，数量上流动性环境较为宽松，但价格上更多考虑内外均衡，后续或将沿用这一思路，维持资金面稳定。5年期LPR报价首次单月下调25bp。本月1年期LPR维持不变，5年期LPR下调25bp，本次5年期LPR报价是首次单月下调25bp，调整幅度较高。同时，本次LPR调整是历史上第四次在MLF利率保持不变的情况下，LPR单独调降，其中前两次分别是2019年9月、2021年12月1年期LPR单独下调5bp，第三次则是2022年5月5年期LPR单独下调15bp。本次调整以后，5年期LPR与1年期LPR价差下降至50bp，达到历史最低值，低于2022年下半年到2023年上半年价差15bp，低于LPR改革前价差5bp。5年期LPR调整的三点原因：首先，继续释放更加积极的货币政策信号。本次报价是对于1月24日国新办会议的呼应，其中提到“将把提供给金融机构的支农支小再贷款、再贴现利率由2%下调到1.75%，这些措施都将有助于推动信贷定价基准的贷款市场报价利率，也就是我们说的LPR下行”，同时2023年货币政策执行报告中也提到“强化逆周期和跨周期调节”。其次，维持按揭贷款稳定。去年下半年以来30城商品房成交面积同比仍然偏弱，12月房地产当月投资增速回落幅度有所加大，1-12月房地产投资累计同比增速下降9.6%，比1-11月下降0.2个百分点，房地产企业融资和销售依然偏弱，房地产投资尚未出现明显好转迹象。亟需稳定商品房成交，避免大规模提前偿还。最后，广谱利率的整体下行。目前货币政策发力点聚焦于推进存款利率市场化，以带动整体利率水平下行，当前经济环境需要降低实际利率，2022年以来大行连续四次下调存款挂牌利率提供了一定的空间。今年1月25日起支农支小再贷款、再贴现利率各下调了0.25%，也降低了银行的资金成本，1月以来银行主动负债工具的发行成本逐渐下行。MLF与LPR不必然线性挂钩。MLF降息落空不影响LPR调降，LPR存在单独调降的情况。本月MLF利率不变，或许是出于内外均衡考虑。1月24日国新办会议上提及“价格上兼顾内外均衡”，目前发达经济体通胀大概率延续回落势头，但服务项目通胀仍具粘性，主要发达经济体央行何时启动降息有较大不确定性，中美利差倒挂幅度仍处在历史较高水平。未来MLF是否调整仍需观测海外市场形势。LPR单独调降时期往往流动性充裕。另一方面，虽然MLF降息落空，但回顾以往LPR单独调降的时期，央行均采取全面降准以提供宽松的流动性环境，即2019年9月16日降准50bp、2021年12月15日降准50bp和2022年4月25日降准25bp。本轮LPR单独调降之前，降准也已于2月5日落地，同时央行于2023年四季度货政报告中再次提及“引导市场利率围绕政策利率波动”，1月DR007基本围绕政策利率窄幅波动，均值为1.8598%。降准、财政支出、节后资金回流等有利因素叠加，提供了偏松的流动性环境，资金明显收紧的风险相对有限。风险提示：经济下行压力加大；流动性超预期收紧；地产复苏不及预期。', 'content': 'Event: The People\\'s Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) on February 20, 2024 is: 1-year LPR is 3.45%, and 5-year and above LPR is 3.95%. The single-month reduction of the 5-year LPR is the highest in history. We believe that we need to pay attention to the following three points: 1. The LPR is asymmetrically lowered and the 5-year LPR adjustment is relatively strong. The root cause is still the poor performance of the real estate market. Pay attention to the follow-up The implementation of real estate policies such as the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism and the sales level of commercial housing; 2. The current focus of monetary policy is to promote the marketization of deposit interest rates to drive the overall interest rate downward, and it is expected that the deposit listed interest rate will be further reduced during the year; 3. In terms of monetary policy, judging from the policy direction in February, the liquidity environment is relatively loose in terms of quantity, but more consideration is given to internal and external balance in terms of price. This idea may be followed in the future to maintain financial stability. The 5-year LPR quotation dropped by 25bp in a single month for the first time. This month, the 1-year LPR remains unchanged, and the 5-year LPR is lowered by 25bp. This is the first time that the 5-year LPR quotation has been lowered by 25bp in a single month, and the adjustment range is relatively high. At the same time, this LPR adjustment is the fourth time in history that the LPR has been individually lowered while the MLF interest rate remains unchanged. The first two times were in September 2019 and December 2021, when the 1-year LPR was individually lowered by 5bp. The third time was the 5-year LPR cut by 15bp in May 2022. After this adjustment, the price difference between the 5-year LPR and the 1-year LPR dropped to 50bp, reaching a historical low, lower than the 15bp price difference from the second half of 2022 to the first half of 2023, and 5bp lower than the price difference before the LPR reform. There are three reasons for the adjustment of the 5-year LPR: First, continue to release more positive monetary policy signals. This quotation is in response to the State Council Information Office meeting on January 24, which mentioned that “the re-loan and re-discount interest rates provided to financial institutions to support agriculture and small businesses will be reduced from 2% to 1.75%. These measures will have The loan market quotation rate that helps drive the credit pricing benchmark is what we call the LPR downward.\" At the same time, the 2023 monetary policy implementation report also mentioned \"strengthening counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustments.\" Second, maintain the stability of mortgage loans. Since the second half of last year, the transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bcommercial housing in 30 cities has still been weak year-on-year. The real estate investment growth rate in December has increased. The cumulative real estate investment growth rate from January to December fell by 9.6% year-on-year, 0.2% lower than that from January to November. percentage points, the financing and sales of real estate companies are still weak, and real estate investment has not yet shown obvious signs of improvement. There is an urgent need to stabilize commercial housing transactions and avoid large-scale early repayments. Finally, there is an overall decline in broad-spectrum interest rates. The current focus of monetary policy is to promote the marketization of deposit interest rates to drive the overall interest rate downward. The current economic environment requires lowering real interest rates. Since 2022, major banks have lowered their deposit listing interest rates four times in a row, providing a certain amount of space. Starting from January 25 this year, the refinancing and rediscount rates for supporting agriculture and small businesses were each reduced by 0.25%, which also reduced banks\\' capital costs. Since January, the issuance costs of banks\\' active liability instruments have gradually declined. MLF and LPR are not necessarily linearly linked. The failure of the MLF interest rate cut does not affect the LPR cut, and there are cases where the LPR is cut alone. The MLF interest rate remains unchanged this month, perhaps due to internal and external balance considerations. At the meeting of the State Council Information Office on January 24, it was mentioned that \"prices should take into account internal and external balance\". At present, inflation in developed economies is likely to continue its downward trend, but inflation in service items is still sticky. There is a big uncertainty as to when the central banks of major developed economies will start cutting interest rates. Uncertainty, the inversion of the interest rate differential between China and the United States is still at a historically high level. Whether MLF will adjust in the future still needs to be observed in overseas market situations. Liquidity is often abundant during periods when LPR is lowered alone. On the other hand, although the MLF interest rate cut failed, looking back on the previous periods when LPR was lowered alone, the central bank adopted comprehensive RRR cuts to provide a loose liquidity environment, that is, on September 16, 2019, it cut the RRR by 50bp and on December 15, 2021. The RRR cut will be 50bp and 25bp on April 25, 2022. Before this round of separate LPR cuts, the RRR cut had also been implemented on February 5. At the same time, the central bank once again mentioned in the fourth quarter 2023 monetary policy report that \"guiding market interest rates to fluctuate around the policy interest rate.\" In January DR007 basically centered around the policy interest rate. Fluctuations within a narrow range, with an average value of 1.8598%. The combination of favorable factors such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, fiscal expenditures, and post-holiday capital reflows have provided a loose liquidity environment, and the risk of significant capital tightening is relatively limited. Risk warning: downward pressure on the economy is increasing; liquidity is tighter than expected; real estate recovery is less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('c31d980c-b37c-5b03-955a-deb736b33593'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8857364058494568, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'J28KQA4HO2AFNKUF8331R2O1UJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:17:47 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'J28KQA4HO2AFNKUF8331R2O1UJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('30bf3b0c-7d2d-5a5d-a756-04f1ea7a2357'), 'title': 'Weekly Economic Observation: How much has the current macro environment changed?', 'author': 'Yuan Fang , Shu Jiapei', 'orgName': '国投证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80084302', 'orgSName': '国投证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY7SIksaZvebHlILFQZGJU9o=', 'researcher': '袁方,束加沛', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000337134', '11000370131'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY7SIksaZvebHlILFQZGJU9o=', 'site': 'SDIC Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622410160_1.pdf?1708440975000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622410160_1.pdf?1708440975000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly Economic Observation: How much has the current macro environment changed?', 'originalAuthor': '袁方,束加沛', 'originalContent': '内容提要从春节假期数据，以及此前公布的金融、通胀数据来看，当前居民部门消费倾向仍处于偏低的水平，房地产行业维持弱势，宏观经济尚未出现明显改善。而扭转当前经济格局的关键在于政策的应对，这无疑需要持续跟踪。随着市场自发的调整和政策的介入，交易性因素对市场的冲击在节后或许已经结束。但市场最终的底部取决于基本面改善的程度，这意味着权益市场仍在磨底的过程中。5年LPR的下调更多反映出监管当局对房地产行业的关注。春节期间全国商品房成交清淡，长端利率的下调意在提振居民的购房需求。在流动性环境趋于宽松、基本面弱势的背景下，债券市场收益率中枢有望继续下行。风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险（2）政策出台超预期', 'content': \"Executive Summary Judging from the Spring Festival holiday data, as well as previously released financial and inflation data, the current consumption tendency of the household sector is still at a low level, the real estate industry remains weak, and the macro economy has not yet shown significant improvement. The key to reversing the current economic landscape lies in policy response, which undoubtedly requires continued tracking. With the spontaneous adjustment of the market and the intervention of policies, the impact of transactional factors on the market may have ended after the holiday. But the final bottom of the market depends on the degree of improvement in fundamentals, which means that the equity market is still in the process of bottoming out. The reduction in the 5-year LPR reflects more of the regulatory authorities’ focus on the real estate industry. During the Spring Festival, commercial housing transactions across the country were light, and the reduction in long-term interest rates is intended to boost residents' demand for home purchases. Against the background of loose liquidity conditions and weak fundamentals, the bond market yield center is expected to continue to decline. Risk warning: (1) Geopolitical risks (2) Policy introduction exceeds expectations\", 'authorid': UUID('66c81f3c-61e1-5d1f-95e1-6739dac1004e'), 'sentimentScore': -0.06361991167068481, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KC1AVR5RN6TMD7VF9E8P624R63VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:17:49 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KC1AVR5RN6TMD7VF9E8P624R63VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('020593fb-caf1-57d4-a344-c5a4bff88a00'), 'title': 'Macro Comment: LPR’s “lowering” intention after the holiday is unique', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY/ewvGS5mqebX8Bh+6PdZdo=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY/ewvGS5mqebX8Bh+6PdZdo=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622409186_1.pdf?1708434256000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622409186_1.pdf?1708434256000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: LPR’s “lowering” intention after the holiday is unique', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '25bp！2月5年期LPR调降幅度空前，且5年期LPR调降而1年期LPR不变、LPR与MLF的不同步降息均属历史罕见，本次LPR重现了2022年5月疫情期间的非对称降息操作。一季度经济“开门红”离不开地产的企稳，在稳汇率与稳经济的选择题中，央行给出了“降”心独具的答案：一是“救急”地产，释放积极的货币政策信号；二是“革新”思路，在汇率压力下注重实体经济与政策灵活性。年初地产销售平淡，利率调降是“当务之急”。四个一线城市1月商品房成交量环比继续回落，加之恒大清盘事件等房企风险持续扰动市场情绪，政策托底地产在今年年初就显示出紧迫性。本次5年期LPR降幅超预期，意在促使楼市量价尽快企稳，也释放出地产政策后续出台的信号。回顾2022年5月同为5年期LPR单独调降时，首套房商贷利率下限调降等稳楼市政策配合出台。下调LPR却不降MLF，意味着汇率压力仍有约束。1月24日潘行长在发布会中提及“市场普遍预期美联储货币政策的转向，客观上也有利于我们扩大货币政策的操作空间”，侧面印证了稳汇率对于降息的限制。观察2023年6月及2022年8月的MLF降息时点均在美债利率阶段性回落或稳定时。而今市场预期美联储降息窗口推迟，“政策利率”属性偏弱的LPR利率适合率先调降。银行息差不必过于担忧，因为降准与存款降息已作铺垫。一是根据历史经验，2019年9月至今四次LPR单独调降前后均有降准为银行成本作缓冲；二是去年LPR降幅小于MLF，且有三次存款利率调降，为本次LPR单独下调保留了银行息差空间。从本次突破“范式”的降息，我们可窥见金融工作会议后央行政策思路变化：一是MLF-LPR利率联动调降并不绝对，前有2023年8月5年期LPR不降为下调存量房贷利率打开空间，现有5年期LPR率先调降兼顾稳汇率与稳地产，意味着后续MLF与LPR有依照各自逻辑进行操作的空间——MLF关注汇率，而LPR则注重实体，存款利率市场化可为银行息差打开空间。二是LPR的期限利差收窄至历史新低，可理解为房地产进入新供需格局后在LPR价差上的体现。不过偏低的价差可能成为下次5年期LPR降幅的一个限制。堪比2020年初的货币宽松密度，反映的是更强的政策年初发力诉求。从节前央行超预期降准、地产白名单加速推进及信贷投放量创同期新高，到节后国常会及各地方部委显示的“坚定信心、鼓足干劲”、再到本次非对称降息，可以看出政府对今年“开门红”的成色更加重视。3月两会召开前可能是产业、���观政策密集出台期，包括两会上的2024年赤字率也有上调可能。风险提示：政策出台节奏及项目落地放缓导致经济复苏偏慢；海外经济体提前显著进入衰退，国内出口超预期萎缩。', 'content': '25bp! The 5-year LPR cut in February was unprecedented, and the 5-year LPR was cut while the 1-year LPR remained unchanged. The asynchronous interest rate cuts of LPR and MLF are all rare in history. This LPR reappeared during the epidemic in May 2022. asymmetric interest rate cut operation. The \"good start\" of the economy in the first quarter is inseparable from the stabilization of real estate. In the multiple-choice question of stabilizing the exchange rate and stabilizing the economy, the central bank gave a unique answer for \"reduction\": First, \"emergency\" real estate and release a positive monetary policy signal ; The second is the \"innovative\" approach, focusing on the real economy and policy flexibility under exchange rate pressure. Real estate sales were flat at the beginning of the year, and lowering interest rates was a \"top priority.\" The transaction volume of commercial housing in four first-tier cities continued to fall month-on-month in January. In addition, real estate company risks such as the Evergrande liquidation incident continued to disturb market sentiment. The policy underpinning real estate showed urgency at the beginning of this year. The 5-year LPR fell more than expected this time, which is intended to stabilize the property market volume and price as soon as possible, and also releases a signal for the subsequent introduction of real estate policies. Looking back at the separate reduction of the 5-year LPR in May 2022, the lower limit of the first-home commercial loan interest rate was lowered and other policies to stabilize the property market were introduced. Lowering the LPR but not the MLF means that exchange rate pressure is still restrained. On January 24, Governor Pan mentioned in a press conference that “the market generally expects a shift in the Fed’s monetary policy, which will objectively help us expand the operating space of monetary policy.” This confirms the constraints of stabilizing the exchange rate on interest rate cuts. Observe that the MLF interest rate cuts in June 2023 and August 2022 are both when U.S. bond interest rates are falling or stabilizing in stages. Now that the market expects the Fed\\'s interest rate cut window to be postponed, the LPR interest rate, which has a weak \"policy rate\" attribute, is suitable to be cut first. There is no need to worry too much about bank interest rate spreads, because the groundwork has been laid for the RRR cut and the deposit interest rate cut. First, based on historical experience, there have been RRR cuts before and after the four separate LPR cuts since September 2019 to buffer bank costs; second, the LPR decline last year was smaller than the MLF, and there were three deposit interest rate cuts, which was the reason for this separate LPR cut. Bank interest margin space is retained. From this \"paradigm\" interest rate cut, we can get a glimpse of the changes in the central bank\\'s policy thinking after the Financial Work Conference: First, the MLF-LPR interest rate reduction is not absolute. Previously, the 5-year LPR was not reduced to a reduction in August 2023. The mortgage interest rate has opened up space. The existing 5-year LPR is the first to be lowered to stabilize the exchange rate and real estate. This means that MLF and LPR have room to operate according to their respective logics - MLF focuses on the exchange rate, while LPR focuses on entities and the deposit interest rate market. This can open up room for bank interest margins. Second, the term spread of LPR has narrowed to a record low, which can be understood as the reflection of the LPR spread after real estate enters a new supply and demand pattern. However, the low spread may become a limit to the next 5-year LPR decline. The intensity of monetary easing is comparable to that at the beginning of 2020, reflecting stronger policy demands at the beginning of the year. From the central bank’s unexpected reserve requirement ratio reduction before the holidays, the acceleration of the real estate whitelist, and the credit volume hitting a new high for the same period, to the “firm confidence and energy” shown by the National Council and local ministries and commissions after the holiday, to this asymmetric interest rate cut, It can be seen that the government pays more attention to the quality of this year\\'s \"good start\". The two sessions in March may be a period of intensive introduction of industrial and macro policies, including the possibility of an increase in the 2024 deficit rate at the two sessions. Risk warning: The slowdown in the pace of policy introduction and project implementation has led to a slow economic recovery; overseas economies have entered recession significantly ahead of schedule, and domestic exports have shrunk more than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': -0.029161706566810608, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'J28JQ220I51B2AAFNIMJ4F1VVVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:17:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'J28JQ220I51B2AAFNIMJ4F1VVVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e487368d-6c13-52fa-9277-cf7404b18b95'), 'title': 'Weekly report on major asset classes: Expectations for a U.S. dollar interest rate cut have cooled again and risk assets have risen', 'author': 'Ding Peizhou', 'orgName': '国投安信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066669', 'orgSName': '国投安信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY+aB7An8iRAsC7rX216lA/I=', 'researcher': '丁沛舟', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000224020'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY+aB7An8iRAsC7rX216lA/I=', 'site': 'SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投安信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622405575_1.pdf?1708427453000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622405575_1.pdf?1708427453000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly report on major asset classes: Expectations for a U.S. dollar interest rate cut have cooled again and risk assets have risen', 'originalAuthor': '丁沛舟', 'originalContent': '全球大类资产表现情况：股市商品上涨债市回落2月05日—2月16日，美国1月通胀数据超出市场预期，美元降息预期进一步降温。美元指数收涨，股市商品市场上涨，债市回落。综合来看，以美元计价，商品＞股＞债。国内大类资产表现情况：节前股市大幅上涨债市商品震荡2月05日—2月16日，受春节错位效应影响，中国1月社融增量及新增人民币贷款增长超出市场预期，M2与M1剪刀差收窄。节前股市明显上涨，债市商品震荡。综合来看，股＞商品＞债。大类资产价格展望：关注节后国内权益市场表现综合来看，节前A股投资者情绪有了一定改善，春节假期海外股市整体表现平稳，后续关注国内权益市场节后涨势能否延续。风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期', 'content': 'Performance of major global asset classes: Stock markets, commodities rose, bond markets fell. From February 05 to February 16, U.S. inflation data for January exceeded market expectations, and expectations for a U.S. dollar interest rate cut further cooled. The U.S. dollar index closed higher, the stock and commodity markets rose, and the bond market fell. Taken together, in US dollars, commodities > stocks > bonds. Performance of major domestic assets: The stock market rose sharply before the holiday, and the bond market and commodities fluctuated. From February 05 to February 16, affected by the dislocation effect of the Spring Festival, China’s social financing increase and new RMB loan growth in January exceeded market expectations, and M2 The scissor difference with M1 is narrowed. The stock market rose significantly before the holiday, and the bond market and commodities were volatile. Taken together, stocks > commodities > bonds. Outlook for major asset prices: Pay attention to the performance of the domestic equity market after the holiday. Overall, A-share investor sentiment has improved to some extent before the holiday. The overall performance of overseas stock markets during the Spring Festival holiday is stable. We will pay attention to whether the post-holiday rise in the domestic equity market can continue. Risk warning: U.S. inflation data improves less than expected', 'authorid': UUID('1b81edf7-fac6-5484-88a6-d9ef697a32ab'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7950637489557266, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '9A0TVLROJQQ5DHMDLPE2LOIUPVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:17:54 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '9A0TVLROJQQ5DHMDLPE2LOIUPVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('4d2eac58-a899-5998-bbbd-c6e7d984ec7b'), 'title': 'Analysis of drivers of high growth in manufacturing investment and outlook for 2024', 'author': 'Mao Lei, Wang Xiao', 'orgName': '国泰期货', 'orgCode': '80101065', 'orgSName': '国泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY5xvxO4KRBAfkervhrjwD8U=', 'researcher': '毛磊,王笑', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000218765', '11000259151'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuY5xvxO4KRBAfkervhrjwD8U=', 'site': 'Cathay Futures', 'originalSite': '国泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622405567_1.pdf?1708421598000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622405567_1.pdf?1708421598000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Analysis of drivers of high growth in manufacturing investment and outlook for 2024', 'originalAuthor': '毛磊,王笑', 'originalContent': '报告导读：摘要：2023年，制造业投资同比增长6.5%，成为对冲地产投资下行的重要托底力量。结构来看，处于中游的机械设备制造业投资贡献了制造业投资的主要增量。譬如包括新能源行业在内的电气机械及器材、汽车行业全年固定资产投资增速均超过15%。由此，不难看出近两年制造业投资高增的驱动，与政策着重发展实体经济，推动产业转型升级，同时金融信贷资源向制造业，尤其是新能源等新兴产业大力倾斜有关，成为推动制造业投资高增的重要外生变量。预计2024年，一系列产业政策的持续落地，将继续推动制造业投资维持相对偏高增速。不过从内生性因素来看，制造业投资受内外需景气影响，最终通过开工率、利润因素影响参与主体未来预期，进而传导至制造业投资。因此展望来看，内外需景气度弹性有限，开工率不高，部分行业甚至存在产能出现过剩的忧虑，将一定程度上影响市场参与主体下一步投资意愿。综合内外部两方面驱动来看，我们认为2024年制造业投资将继续维持远高于地产投资的偏高增速，但整体增长将有所放缓，全年或录得5.3%的增长。', 'content': 'Report introduction: Abstract: In 2023, manufacturing investment will increase by 6.5% year-on-year, becoming an important underpinning force to hedge against the decline of real estate investment. From a structural perspective, investment in machinery and equipment manufacturing in the middle reaches contributed to the main increase in manufacturing investment. For example, the annual growth rate of fixed asset investment in the electrical machinery and equipment and automobile industries, including the new energy industry, exceeded 15%. From this, it is not difficult to see that the driving force for the high growth in manufacturing investment in the past two years is related to policies focusing on developing the real economy and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading. At the same time, financial credit resources are heavily tilted towards manufacturing, especially emerging industries such as new energy, which has become a driving force. An important exogenous variable for the high growth of manufacturing investment. It is expected that in 2024, the continued implementation of a series of industrial policies will continue to promote manufacturing investment to maintain a relatively high growth rate. However, from the perspective of endogenous factors, manufacturing investment is affected by internal and external demand boom, which ultimately affects the future expectations of participants through operating rates and profit factors, and is then transmitted to manufacturing investment. Therefore, looking forward, the flexibility of domestic and foreign demand is limited, the operating rate is not high, and there are even worries about overcapacity in some industries, which will affect the next investment willingness of market participants to a certain extent. Based on both internal and external drivers, we believe that manufacturing investment will continue to maintain a much higher growth rate than real estate investment in 2024, but the overall growth will slow down and may record a growth of 5.3% for the whole year.', 'authorid': UUID('51f5be69-13d4-5cb3-b380-3e320a6f4d81'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9043694231659174, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'IG18NDF9Q19JSUA4RGTD1LJOE7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:17:57 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'IG18NDF9Q19JSUA4RGTD1LJOE7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('52c74f17-f29f-5788-a177-addd9c1b2d17'), 'title': 'Other tips for companies to go overseas: Everything about companies going overseas (Part 1)', 'author': 'Yang Weiji', 'orgName': '国元证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001043', 'orgSName': '国元证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuYwgHHIJIQByS4Usz2p3lCAg=', 'researcher': '杨为敩', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000176619'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=BcHj04KVPKA8zhWWTUiuYwgHHIJIQByS4Usz2p3lCAg=', 'site': 'Guoyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国元证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622404843_1.pdf?1708421520000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402201622404843_1.pdf?1708421520000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Other tips for companies to go overseas: Everything about companies going overseas (Part 1)', 'originalAuthor': '杨为敩', 'originalContent': '核心观点：在我国投资、消费需求长期趋势向下、人口形势发生改变的情况下，提振国内需求，向消费型经济转变的压力正在变大。但参考我国国情和国际经验，以消费促经济的模式与人口数量关联度并不高，更多与一国经济发展情况、国民总收入情况相关。他山之石，可以攻玉（1）日本在上世纪50年代至70年代借用联合国军侵朝期间充分利用自身补给站的特色，大量出口战略物资，完成新工业化，但战争对日本经济的提振作用有限。60年代时利用自身生产要素成本低廉的特点，积极发展汽车，家电等产业。作为美国实际意义上的从属国，日本在应对上世纪80年代美日贸易争端里选择了放弃优势商品的出口，转向对海外进行直接投资。这个“一石二鸟”的解决方案一方面顺从了美国的意志，另一方面充分利用新兴国家尚未开发、资源与劳动力廉价的特点，转移传统能耗型和劳动密集型产业，自身发展技术密集型及高附加值型产业，走精细化道路。进入21世纪，中国是日本“出海”中的重要一环，是日本全球化时代红利的重要来源国。对海外的直接投资赋予了日本“享受”全球化红利的权利，在全球经济上升期间为日本带来了丰厚的海外要素收入，促进了本国消费需求的增长，完成了向消费型经济体的转变。但随着中国产业升级，中日之间的产业竞争加剧，以及中国各项要素成本的不断上升，日本逐渐将亚洲投资重心放在东盟，同时日本积极加强与欧盟和美国的合作，重点发展运输设备，电气机械，通用机械以及化学品和药品产业等高端产业。进入2010年后，在安倍“制造业回流”战略下，日本对海外直接投资流量有所收缩。（2）德国在上世纪70年代面临劳动力人口短缺，人工成本上升的问题时充分利用自身工业技术水平的优势，积极输出本国产品。此外，德国产品的出海离不开政治方面的努力。东西两德的统一，统一的欧盟市场和货币都为德国产品开拓提供了便利条件。汽车产业的出海是德国产业出海的一个缩影，在中国与西方阵营建交的大环境看，中德的“各取所需”是德国汽车产业出海中国的一个重要前提，为我国产业的出海提供了十分有意义的案例。“出海”必有经贸摩擦做拦路虎。尽管中美和美日关系不同，但美日间的经贸摩擦表明，政府在“出海”谈判中退缩会招来后续连珠炮式的打击。“出海”应从事实出发，不能刻舟求剑、亦不能邯郸学步：我国的实际情况远比日本德国要复杂：产业高水平化不及彼时日德；缺乏类似欧盟的贸易伙伴机制，主要贸易伙伴中中美关系紧张，中欧产业竞争加剧；美日贸易冲突和中美贸易冲突下的谈判地位的迥异；域外大国美国对我国地缘政治环境的破坏和以及全球投资环境的快速改变都会给我国产业“出海”带来全新挑战。风险提示：俄乌、中东军事冲突加剧，贸易投资保护主义加剧，我国地缘政治环境恶化', 'content': 'Core point of view: As my country\\'s long-term investment and consumer demand trends decline, and the demographic situation changes, the pressure to boost domestic demand and transform into a consumption-based economy is increasing. However, referring to my country\\'s national conditions and international experience, the model of promoting the economy through consumption is not highly related to the population, but is more related to a country\\'s economic development and gross national income. Stones from other mountains can be used to attack jade (1) From the 1950s to the 1970s, Japan made full use of the characteristics of its own supply stations during the invasion of Korea by borrowing the United Nations troops, exported strategic materials in large quantities, and completed new industrialization. However, the impact of the war on Japan\\'s economy Vibration effect is limited. In the 1960s, it took advantage of its low cost of production factors to actively develop industries such as automobiles and home appliances. As a de facto subordinate country of the United States, Japan chose to abandon the export of advantageous goods and turn to direct investment overseas in response to the U.S.-Japan trade dispute in the 1980s. This \"killing two birds with one stone\" solution on the one hand complies with the will of the United States, and on the other hand makes full use of the untapped resources and cheap labor of emerging countries to transfer traditional energy-consuming and labor-intensive industries and develop technology-intensive and high-tech industries on its own. Value-added industries take the path of refinement. Entering the 21st century, China is an important part of Japan\\'s \"going overseas\" and an important source of dividends for Japan in the era of globalization. Direct investment overseas has given Japan the right to \"enjoy\" the dividends of globalization, brought Japan abundant overseas factor income during the rise of the global economy, promoted the growth of domestic consumer demand, and completed the transformation into a consumption-oriented economy. . However, with the upgrading of China\\'s industries, the intensification of industrial competition between China and Japan, and the rising costs of various factors in China, Japan has gradually focused its Asian investment on ASEAN. At the same time, Japan has actively strengthened cooperation with the European Union and the United States, focusing on the development of transportation. High-end industries such as equipment, electrical machinery, general machinery, and chemicals and pharmaceutical industries. After entering 2010, under Abe’s “manufacturing reshoring” strategy, Japan’s overseas direct investment flows shrank. (2) When Germany faced labor shortages and rising labor costs in the 1970s, it made full use of its advantages in industrial technology and actively exported domestic products. In addition, the export of German products overseas is inseparable from political efforts. The unification of East and West Germany, the unified EU market and currency have provided convenient conditions for the development of German products. The overseas expansion of the automobile industry is a microcosm of the German industry\\'s overseas expansion. In the context of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the Western camp, China and Germany\\'s \"each taking what they need\" is an important prerequisite for the German automobile industry\\'s overseas expansion into China, which provides the basis for the overseas expansion of our country\\'s industries. A very meaningful case. \"Going overseas\" must be hindered by economic and trade frictions. Although the relations between China and the United States are different from those between the United States and Japan, the economic and trade frictions between the United States and Japan have shown that the government\\'s retreat in the \"overseas\" negotiations will lead to a series of subsequent attacks. \"Going overseas\" should be based on facts, and we should not cut a boat to seek a sword, nor learn to walk in Handan: my country\\'s actual situation is far more complicated than that of Japan and Germany: the high level of industry is not as high as that of Japan and Germany at that time; there is a lack of a trading partner mechanism similar to the EU, and the relationship between China and the United States, the main trading partner Tensions and intensified industrial competition between my country and Europe; the different negotiating positions under the U.S.-Japan trade conflict and the Sino-U.S. trade conflict; the destruction of my country\\'s geopolitical environment by the United States, a major foreign country, and the rapid changes in the global investment environment will all bring consequences to the \"going global\" of our industries. A new challenge. Risk warning: Military conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and the Middle East have intensified, trade and investment protectionism has intensified, and my country\\'s geopolitical environment has deteriorated.', 'authorid': UUID('6d968db3-be1e-5c47-a812-8f8784abf8e8'), 'sentimentScore': 0.0918585304170847, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '2PR3FTAGB6O7O4MBMG3SLH0PS7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:17:59 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '2PR3FTAGB6O7O4MBMG3SLH0PS7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1c35d660-83d8-579b-a4b4-6708aaad8240'), 'title': 'Overview of domestic and international macro information during the Spring Festival holiday', 'author': 'Yuanno', 'orgName': '中邮证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80036717', 'orgSName': '中邮证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-20', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7f9sZlw0ij4I4q9N12IyC7s=', 'researcher': '袁野', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000266839'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7f9sZlw0ij4I4q9N12IyC7s=', 'site': 'China Post Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中邮证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622403612_1.pdf?1708415940000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622403612_1.pdf?1708415940000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overview of domestic and international macro information during the Spring Festival holiday', 'originalAuthor': '袁野', 'originalContent': '核心观点春节假期，大宗商品价格涨跌分化，原油价格上涨，黄金价格下跌；美国股市小幅收涨，债市明显走熊；美元指数明显上升。海外高通胀仍制约经济增长，货币政策回归常态化仍存在不确定性。美国经济保持韧性，通胀数据超预期。尽管就业市场强劲，居民收入保持温和增速，但美国高通胀、高利率导致美国居民支出增加，货币幻觉效应掣肘美国居民消费能力，美国零售数据超预期回落。在此背景下，美联储货币政策操作难度加大，3月降息概率回落，降息时间点落在二季度。欧元区经济疲软，下调2024年经济增长预期。在家庭购买力下降、外部需求收缩、货币紧缩和2023年财政支持部分撤出的背景下，经济扩张普遍停滞不前，受此影响，2024年欧盟和欧元区经济增长势头比预期要弱。当前日本维持低利率环境下，美国和欧洲面临高通胀，开启快速加息，日元对美元汇率持续贬值，导致以美元计算的GDP缩水，同时德国GDP因物价上涨被拉高，日本名义GDP被德国反超。国内经济增长仍有压力，国内货币政策有望边际宽松。政府稳增长信号更为明显，正向激励有所加强。整体来看，下一阶段货币政策将边际宽松，增大信贷支持力度，引导商业银行降低实体融资成本，将金融机构负债成本的下行传导至实体融资成本，化解针对重点风险领域信贷风险项目，提高存量信贷资金利用效率。2月5日，央行下调金融机构存款准备金0.5个百分点，释放1万亿长期流动性，同时，住房城乡建设部和金融监管总局联合印发《关于建立城市房地产融资协调机制的通知》，各大商业银行已经积极推动落实，有望实现房地产风险项目化解，打通房地产领域堵点。目前市场对节后房地产市场复苏存在一定期待，当前已进入观察窗口期，如果房地产销售表现不理想，预计二季度货币政策仍将进一步宽松，降息可期。春节消费方面，今年春节期间旅游热度持续增长，带动服务消费和零售明显增长。具体表现为，一是居民出行持续恢复，全区域人员流动创历史新高，较2019年有所增长，私家车普及率提升；二是从时间维度纵向对比分析，国内旅游继续修复，不过从实际旅游收入变化来看，2024年旅游收入仍弱于2019年水平；三是旅游带动服务消费和零售明显增长，票房收入和观影人次再创新高，支付交易额持续增长等；四是地产销售总体疲弱，有待进一步观察。从30大中城市商品房销售同比增速数据看，房地产市场仍然有待恢复；不过从时间维度纵向观察，返乡置业热度有所回升，但单月趋势性特征并不明确，地产销售复苏有待进一步观察确认。', 'content': 'Core Views During the Spring Festival holiday, commodity prices rose and fell, with crude oil prices rising and gold prices falling. The U.S. stock market closed slightly higher, and the bond market was clearly bearish; the U.S. dollar index rose significantly. High overseas inflation still restricts economic growth, and there is still uncertainty about the normalization of monetary policy. The U.S. economy remains resilient, with inflation data exceeding expectations. Although the job market is strong and residents\\' income maintains a moderate growth rate, high inflation and high interest rates in the United States have led to an increase in U.S. residents\\' spending. The currency illusion effect has restricted the spending power of U.S. residents, and U.S. retail sales data have fallen beyond expectations. Against this background, the Fed\\'s monetary policy operations have become more difficult, the probability of an interest rate cut in March has dropped, and the timing of the rate cut falls in the second quarter. The euro zone economy is weak and economic growth expectations for 2024 have been lowered. Against the background of declining household purchasing power, shrinking external demand, monetary tightening and partial withdrawal of fiscal support in 2023, economic expansion has generally stagnated. As a result, the economic growth momentum of the EU and Eurozone in 2024 will be weaker than expected. While Japan currently maintains a low interest rate environment, the United States and Europe are facing high inflation and have started to raise interest rates rapidly. The Japanese yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, causing GDP in US dollars to shrink. At the same time, Germany\\'s GDP has been pushed up due to rising prices, and Japan\\'s nominal GDP has been Germany overtakes. Domestic economic growth is still under pressure, and domestic monetary policy is expected to be marginally loose. The government\\'s signal to stabilize growth is more obvious, and positive incentives have been strengthened. Overall, the next stage of monetary policy will be marginally loose, increase credit support, guide commercial banks to reduce entity financing costs, transmit the decline in financial institutions\\' liability costs to entity financing costs, resolve credit risk projects in key risk areas, and improve Utilization efficiency of existing credit funds. On February 5, the central bank lowered the deposit reserves of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points to release 1 trillion in long-term liquidity. At the same time, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Administration of Financial Supervision jointly issued the \"Notice on Establishing an Urban Real Estate Financing Coordination Mechanism\". Commercial banks have actively promoted implementation, which is expected to resolve real estate risk projects and clear up blockages in the real estate field. At present, the market has certain expectations for the recovery of the real estate market after the holiday. It has entered the observation window period. If the performance of real estate sales is not satisfactory, it is expected that monetary policy will be further loosened in the second quarter, and interest rate cuts are expected. In terms of Spring Festival consumption, tourism popularity continued to grow during this year’s Spring Festival, driving significant growth in service consumption and retail sales. The specific manifestations are: first, residents\\' travel continues to recover, the flow of people in the entire region has reached a record high, which has increased compared with 2019, and the penetration rate of private cars has increased; second, from the longitudinal comparative analysis of the time dimension, domestic tourism continues to recover, but from the perspective of actual tourism In terms of revenue changes, tourism revenue in 2024 will still be weaker than the level in 2019; third, tourism has driven significant growth in service consumption and retail sales, box office revenue and movie attendance have reached new highs, and payment transaction volume has continued to grow; fourth, real estate sales have been generally weak , awaiting further observation. Judging from the year-on-year growth rate data of commercial housing sales in 30 large and medium-sized cities, the real estate market still needs to recover; however, from the longitudinal perspective of time, the popularity of returning home to buy properties has rebounded, but the single-month trend characteristics are not clear, and the recovery of real estate sales needs further observation. confirm.', 'authorid': UUID('41b3960d-9709-5ae8-b077-aad17d16ee4a'), 'sentimentScore': -0.691455066204071, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '4PFKKD3M16JCICLS9TFFBPDK2JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:18:02 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '4PFKKD3M16JCICLS9TFFBPDK2JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('08c7ed87-f80a-5de9-8be9-9aaca396b2d5'), 'title': 'Current Economic and Policy Thinking: High Desires and Low Satisfaction', 'author': 'Yang Chang', 'orgName': '中泰证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000157', 'orgSName': '中泰证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7WyITcc5eIr3KIa4OFryR1g=', 'researcher': '杨畅', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000286037'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7WyITcc5eIr3KIa4OFryR1g=', 'site': 'Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中泰证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622402796_1.pdf?1708378989000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622402796_1.pdf?1708378989000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Current Economic and Policy Thinking: High Desires and Low Satisfaction', 'originalAuthor': '杨畅', 'originalContent': '投资要点我们不认同所谓的“低欲望”，在春节出游数据上观察到，消费的“高欲望”仍然存在；只是在相较前期偏低的水平上被满足，即“低满足”。出游是服务消费的典型代表，在实物消费上，典型代表是可选消费品中的乘用车，销量数据表明购买欲望仍然存在，成交均价走低也表明被满足的水平。上述现象或许可以用结构分化来解释，居民消费的基础端更加稳固，导致了整体消费欲望的抬升，但偏高端群体的消费支出相较前期偏弱，导致整体消费在偏低水平上满足。风险提示事件：政策变动风险；经济波动超预期风险。', 'content': 'Investment Points We do not agree with the so-called \"low desire\". We observe from the Spring Festival travel data that the \"high desire\" for consumption still exists; it is only satisfied at a lower level than in the previous period, that is, \"low satisfaction.\" Travel is a typical representative of service consumption. In terms of physical consumption, the typical representative is passenger cars among optional consumer goods. Sales data shows that the desire to purchase still exists, and the lower average transaction price also indicates that the level of satisfaction is satisfied. The above phenomenon may be explained by structural differentiation. The basic end of residents\\' consumption is more stable, leading to an increase in overall consumption desire. However, the consumption expenditure of high-end groups is weaker than in the previous period, resulting in overall consumption being satisfied at a low level. Risk warning events: risk of policy changes; risk of unexpected economic fluctuations.', 'authorid': UUID('f3afd47c-fdac-5a33-93e8-2b27032e7117'), 'sentimentScore': -0.2544187754392624, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'O90FKGTDMFNP26RFTVCK5LKKO7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:18:05 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'O90FKGTDMFNP26RFTVCK5LKKO7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f00722f9-fd4d-574c-a60b-f284e4c85368'), 'title': 'Weekly observation on risk pricing of major asset classes: the 4th week of February 24', 'author': 'Song Xuetao, Lin Yan', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7UENLEXmoHP+hk+fuebwVRo=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛,林彦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658', '11000425634'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7UENLEXmoHP+hk+fuebwVRo=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622402791_1.pdf?1708379725000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622402791_1.pdf?1708379725000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly observation on risk pricing of major asset classes: the 4th week of February 24', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛,林彦', 'originalContent': '2月第3周各类资产表现：海外2月第3周（2月12日-2月16日），美股三大指数普遍下跌。国内2月第2周（2月5日-2月8日）Wind全A上涨5.72%，日均成交上涨至9697亿元。30个一级行业大部分上涨；综合金融、纺织服装和综合表现靠后。信用债指数上升0.11%，国债指数下跌0.01%。风险提示：地缘冲突进一步升级；经济复苏斜率不及预期；货币政策超预期收紧', 'content': 'Performance of various assets in the third week of February: Overseas, in the third week of February (February 12-February 16), the three major U.S. stock indexes generally fell. In the second week of domestic February (February 5-February 8), Wind all-A rose by 5.72%, and the average daily transaction rose to 969.7 billion yuan. Most of the 30 first-level industries rose; comprehensive finance, textiles and apparel, and comprehensive performance lagged behind. The credit bond index rose 0.11% and the government bond index fell 0.01%. Risk warning: geopolitical conflicts further escalate; economic recovery slope is lower than expected; monetary policy tightens beyond expectations', 'authorid': UUID('36e3252c-e8b8-57b7-8761-bedbc96e9406'), 'sentimentScore': 0.01062282919883728, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'LH0RLCHN5KF3R9GUO14TLMT52NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:18:08 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'LH0RLCHN5KF3R9GUO14TLMT52NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('81e41109-6100-51f0-8cd2-9ba0fd647aec'), 'title': 'Comments on price data in January 2024: The wrong month of the Spring Festival caused the year-on-year decline in CPI to expand in January and is expected to turn positive in February', 'author': 'Feng Lin', 'orgName': '东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司', 'orgCode': '80117870', 'orgSName': '东方金诚', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7X6oMHu2TPt5lM/GUY0bmLQ=', 'researcher': '冯琳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000282735'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7X6oMHu2TPt5lM/GUY0bmLQ=', 'site': 'Oriental Jincheng International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东方金诚', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622395067_1.pdf?1708362433000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622395067_1.pdf?1708362433000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on price data in January 2024: The wrong month of the Spring Festival caused the year-on-year decline in CPI to expand in January and is expected to turn positive in February', 'originalAuthor': '冯琳', 'originalContent': '事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2024年1月，CPI同比为-0.8%，降幅较上月扩大0.5个百分点；PPI同比下降2.5%，降幅较上月收窄0.2个百分点。基本观点：1月CPI同比降幅扩大，主要是受春节错月导致基数上升影响，当月食品价格同比降幅显著扩大；另外，同样受上年同期基数上升影响，1月服务价格同比涨幅也有所收窄。从最新物价上涨动能来看，1月CPI环比上涨0.3%，与历史同期相比稳中偏低。不过，当月核心CPI同比仍保持0.4%的稳定正增长，意味着尽管整体CPI已连续四个月同比负增长，但当前并未形成通缩格局，而低通胀现象值得高度重视。PPI方面，1月PPI环比维持跌势，主要原因是内需仍然较弱，近期国内主导的钢铁、水泥、煤炭等大宗商品价格稳中偏弱，同时下游商品出厂价格涨价动力也显不足。不过，在基数走低支撑下，当月PPI同比跌幅仍延续收敛。展望未来，2月春节错月效应影响反转，CPI同比将恢复正增长，预计涨幅会在0.6%左右,此后有望基本延续正增长状态，全年CPI同比中枢将从2023年的0.2%回升至1.3%左右，通缩风险进一步弱化。整体上看，2024年物价涨幅会处于温和偏低水平，这将为货币政策灵活调整提供较大空间。PPI方面，2月适逢春节，由于春节长假期间PPI将环比走低，而上年同期基数走势相对稳定，当月PPI同比降幅收窄势头或将暂缓，预计2月PPI同比降幅将维持在-2.5%左右。往后看，2024年国际原油价格有望回稳，“三大工程”全面推动下，国内房地产投资降幅趋于收窄，对国内主导大宗商品价格的抑制作用减弱，加之上年同期价格基数下沉，上半年PPI同比降幅总体将趋于收窄，并有望在年中前后转为正增长。', 'content': 'Event: According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in January 2024, the CPI was -0.8% year-on-year, a decline that expanded by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the PPI fell by 2.5% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Basic point of view: The year-on-year decline in CPI expanded in January, mainly due to the impact of the base increase due to the wrong month of the Spring Festival. The year-on-year decrease in food prices in that month expanded significantly; in addition, also affected by the increase in the base in the same period last year, the year-on-year increase in service prices in January also declined. narrow. Judging from the latest momentum for price increases, CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month in January, which was stable and low compared with the same period in history. However, the core CPI still maintained a stable positive growth of 0.4% year-on-year that month, which means that although the overall CPI has had negative year-on-year growth for four consecutive months, a deflationary pattern is not currently forming, and the phenomenon of low inflation deserves great attention. In terms of PPI, PPI maintained a month-on-month decline in January. The main reason is that domestic demand is still weak. Recently, the prices of domestically dominated bulk commodities such as steel, cement, and coal have been stable and weak. At the same time, there is also insufficient motivation to increase the ex-factory prices of downstream commodities. However, supported by a lower base, the year-on-year decline in PPI for that month continued to converge. Looking to the future, the effect of the Spring Festival in February will be reversed, and the CPI will return to positive growth year-on-year. The increase is expected to be around 0.6%. After that, it is expected to basically continue the positive growth state. The year-on-year CPI centerline will rebound from 0.2% in 2023 to 0.2% in 2023. Around 1.3%, the risk of deflation has further weakened. Overall, price growth in 2024 will be at a moderate and low level, which will provide greater room for flexible adjustments in monetary policy. In terms of PPI, February coincides with the Spring Festival. Since PPI will decline month-on-month during the long Spring Festival holiday, while the base trend in the same period last year is relatively stable, the year-on-year decline in PPI in that month may be slowed down. It is expected that the year-on-year decline in PPI in February will remain at -2.5%. about. Looking forward, international crude oil prices are expected to stabilize in 2024. Under the comprehensive promotion of the \"three major projects\", the decline in domestic real estate investment will tend to narrow, and the inhibitory effect on the prices of domestic leading commodities will weaken. In addition, the price base will sink in the same period last year. , the year-on-year decline in PPI in the first half of the year will generally tend to narrow, and is expected to turn to positive growth around the middle of the year.', 'authorid': UUID('c7e74489-0cfa-5b6c-bf86-df5a0ef5adbc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9291904829442501, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'DULIRUQQ91S2KSJA5QI5JLV5VVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:18:11 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'DULIRUQQ91S2KSJA5QI5JLV5VVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5eb9410f-5429-582f-a794-b3dca6c8bb24'), 'title': 'Comments on financial data in January 2024: Credit achieved a \"good start\" in January, and financial data generally exceeded expectations', 'author': 'Wang Qing, Li Xiaofeng, Feng Lin', 'orgName': '东方金诚', 'orgCode': '80117870', 'orgSName': '东方金诚', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7SM9em03f1R/+k6AYxKcbK0=', 'researcher': '王青,李晓峰,冯琳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000265644', '11000415035', '11000282735'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7SM9em03f1R/+k6AYxKcbK0=', 'site': 'Oriental Jincheng', 'originalSite': '东方金诚', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622395066_1.pdf?1708362328000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622395066_1.pdf?1708362328000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on financial data in January 2024: Credit achieved a \"good start\" in January, and financial data generally exceeded expectations', 'originalAuthor': '王青,李晓峰,冯琳', 'originalContent': '事件：2024年2月9日，央行公布数据显示，2024年1月新增人民币贷款4.92万亿，同比多增162亿；1月新增社会融资规模6.5万亿，同比多增5061亿。1月末，广义货币(M2)同比增长8.7%，增速比上月末低1个百分点；狭义货币(M1)同比增长5.9%，增速较上月末高4.6个百分点。基本观点：在“信贷均衡投放”和特殊再融资债资金置换城投平台存量贷款背景下，1月新增信贷同比仍实现小幅多增，这主要体现稳增长政策持续发力，对相关信贷需求的支撑作用。此外，主要受低基数影响，1月居民贷款同比多增幅度较大。1月社融同比多增逾5000亿，主要贡献来自企业债券融资。当月政府债券融资则现一定幅度同比少增，新增社融结构“政府强、企业弱”的局面有所改善。主要受上年同期增速基数抬高影响，1月末M2增速下行，但继续保持较高增长水平。1月末M1增速大幅反弹，主要要受春节前企业存款活化带动。。整体上看，在贷款均衡投放要求下，1月信贷意外同比多增，新增社融也创历史新高，金融数据“开门红”成色充足，显示稳增长政策全面发力，主要目标是尽快扭转官方制造业PMI指数连续四个月处于收缩区间的势头，推动一季度宏观经济回稳向上。这意味着短期内金融数据有望继续保持较强态势。', 'content': 'Event: On February 9, 2024, the central bank released data showing that in January 2024, new RMB loans were 4.92 trillion, an increase of 16.2 billion year-on-year; new social financing scale in January was 6.5 trillion, an increase of 506.1 billion year-on-year. At the end of January, broad money (M2) increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1 percentage point lower than the end of last month; narrow money (M1) increased by 5.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 4.6 percentage points higher than the end of last month. Basic point of view: Against the background of \"balanced credit release\" and the replacement of existing loans on urban investment platforms with special refinancing debt funds, new credit in January still achieved a slight increase year-on-year. This mainly reflects the continued efforts of the stabilizing growth policy and the demand for related credit. the supporting role. In addition, mainly due to the low base, household loans increased significantly year-on-year in January. In January, social financing increased by more than 500 billion year-on-year, with the main contribution coming from corporate bond financing. In that month, government bond financing increased slightly year-on-year to a certain extent, and the situation of \"strong government and weak enterprises\" in the new social financing structure has improved. Mainly affected by the increase in the growth base in the same period last year, M2 growth declined at the end of January, but continued to maintain a high growth level. M1 growth rebounded sharply at the end of January, mainly driven by the activation of corporate deposits before the Spring Festival. . Overall, under the requirement of balanced loan disbursement, credit unexpectedly increased year-on-year in January, and new social financing also hit a record high. The financial data has made a good start, indicating that the stabilizing growth policy has fully exerted its force. The main goal is to reverse the official The manufacturing PMI index has been in the contraction range for four consecutive months, which has promoted the macroeconomic recovery in the first quarter. This means that financial data is expected to remain strong in the short term.', 'authorid': UUID('58552b1d-85ea-5a5e-b5c5-73d3874f61f1'), 'sentimentScore': 0.5716882348060608, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'EQ44T9M3TR8KOF3BC5JOMRGADFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:18:13 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'EQ44T9M3TR8KOF3BC5JOMRGADFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f414327c-fcdb-5b9b-9092-32984923d95e'), 'title': 'Comments and Outlook on the Federal Reserve’s January Monetary Policy Meeting: The Federal Reserve has clarified the direction of interest rate cuts during the year, and the first interest rate cut may begin around the middle of the year.', 'author': 'Bai Xue ,Li Xiaofeng', 'orgName': '东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司', 'orgCode': '80117870', 'orgSName': '东方金诚', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7alQMYetXFs2tULMAWkJs6M=', 'researcher': '白雪,李晓峰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288135', '11000415035'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7alQMYetXFs2tULMAWkJs6M=', 'site': 'Oriental Jincheng International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东方金诚', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622395068_1.pdf?1708362226000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622395068_1.pdf?1708362226000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments and Outlook on the Federal Reserve’s January Monetary Policy Meeting: The Federal Reserve has clarified the direction of interest rate cuts during the year, and the first interest rate cut may begin around the middle of the year.', 'originalAuthor': '白雪,李晓峰', 'originalContent': '事件：北京时间2月1日周四凌晨，美联储货币政策委员会宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在5.25%-5.5%不变，并暗示暂时不会降息。这是美联储连续第四次维持这一利率区间不变。美联储在会议声明中表示，近期指标显示美国经济活动持续稳步扩张。自2023年初以来，就业增长有所放缓，但依然强劲，失业率保持在低位。通货膨胀水平在过去一年有所缓解，但仍处于高位。声明强调，在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间进行任何调整时，制定货币政策的联邦公开市场委员会将仔细评估未来的数据、不断变化的前景和风险平衡。在更有信心确定通胀率持续向2%的目标迈进之前，降低利率“是不合适的”。声明还重申，在评估适当的货币政策立场时，美联储将继续监测即将发布的信息对经济前景的影响。如果出现可能阻碍目标实现的风险，美联储将准备酌情调整货币政策立场。美联储主席鲍威尔在当天会后举行的新闻发布会上表示，联邦基金利率很可能处于本轮紧缩周期峰值。如果经济发展与预期大体一致，美联储将开始调整政策力度。但他同时表示，根据本次会议，联邦公开市场委员会“不太可能在3月达到信心水平，并确定3月是采取行动（降息）的时机”。', 'content': 'Event: In the early morning of Thursday, February 1, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Committee announced that it would keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%, and hinted that it would not cut interest rates for the time being. This is the fourth consecutive time the Fed has kept rates unchanged at this range. The Fed said in a statement on the meeting that recent indicators show that U.S. economic activity continues to expand steadily. Job growth has slowed since the start of 2023, but remains strong, and the unemployment rate remains low. Inflation levels have eased over the past year but remain elevated. The statement emphasized that when considering any changes to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy, will carefully evaluate future data, the changing outlook and the balance of risks. \"It would not be appropriate\" to lower interest rates until there is greater confidence that inflation is sustainably moving towards the 2% target. The statement also reiterated that the Fed will continue to monitor the impact of upcoming information on the economic outlook as it evaluates the appropriate stance of monetary policy. The Fed will be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks arise that could impede achievement of its goals. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that day that the federal funds rate is likely to be at the peak of this tightening cycle. If the economy develops broadly as expected, the Fed will begin to adjust policy. But he also said that based on this meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee is \"unlikely to reach a confidence level in March and determine that March is the time to take action (to cut interest rates).\"', 'authorid': UUID('034c0158-cb0d-5702-9551-fd861e8f0b7d'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7603745013475418, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '5654CCRQ433C6CCKB054FHQP8RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:18:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '5654CCRQ433C6CCKB054FHQP8RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('57b6da80-d018-5633-a609-749ab4c34a3d'), 'title': '2024: Pay attention to four major macro variables', 'author': 'Amber Zhou', 'orgName': '海通国际证券集团有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001968', 'orgSName': '海通国际', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7dAkTfC4EgW7R8WZJ90gfV8=', 'researcher': 'Amber Zhou', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000355042'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7dAkTfC4EgW7R8WZJ90gfV8=', 'site': 'Haitong International Securities Group Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '海通国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622394653_1.pdf?1708362639000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622394653_1.pdf?1708362639000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '2024: Pay attention to four major macro variables', 'originalAuthor': 'Amber Zhou', 'originalContent': '投资要点：核心结论：2023年我国经济增长目标顺利实现，展望2024年，宏观层面需要继续关注四大变量：房地产、新质生产力、货币和财政政策的总量规模、美联储货币政策。尽管房地产经济多项指标已经降至较低水平，但房地产在居民财富存量、广义财政、金融机构资产存量中占比仍然较大，所以房地产经济的走势及其带来的金融周期波动，仍然会很大程度上影响2024年的宏观经济。在这样的背景下，经济新旧动能转换就显得尤其重要，而新质生产力是经济发展新动能的重要方面，2024年需要继续关注新质生产力相关的政策及影响。从总量角度看，货币和财政等总量的宏观政策，对于总量经济的增长、尤其是总需求的提振，起到至关重要的作用。海外政策方面，我们需要继续关注美联储货币政策的边际变化，过去两年的美元流动性紧缩，对全球经济、政策、大类资产都产生了重要影响，2024年如果美联储货币政策转向降息，我国的汇率、利率和流动性环境均有望进一步改善。风险提示：海外货币政策调整超预期，国内经济修复不及预期。', 'content': \"Investment points: Core conclusion: my country's economic growth target has been successfully achieved in 2023. Looking forward to 2024, four major variables need to continue to be paid attention to at the macro level: real estate, new productivity, the total scale of monetary and fiscal policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Although many indicators of the real estate economy have dropped to low levels, real estate still accounts for a large proportion of the stock of residents’ wealth, broad finance, and the stock of assets of financial institutions. Therefore, the trend of the real estate economy and the financial cycle fluctuations it brings will still It will largely affect the macroeconomics in 2024. In this context, the conversion of old and new kinetic energy of the economy is particularly important, and new quality productivity is an important aspect of the new kinetic energy of economic development. In 2024, we need to continue to pay attention to the policies and impacts related to new quality productivity. From an aggregate perspective, aggregate macroeconomic policies such as monetary and fiscal policies play a crucial role in the growth of the aggregate economy, especially in boosting aggregate demand. In terms of overseas policies, we need to continue to pay attention to the marginal changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The tightening of US dollar liquidity in the past two years has had an important impact on the global economy, policies, and major asset classes. If the Federal Reserve's monetary policy turns to interest rate cuts in 2024, my country's The exchange rate, interest rate and liquidity environment are all expected to improve further. Risk warning: Overseas monetary policy adjustments exceed expectations, and domestic economic recovery falls short of expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('ea987fec-285c-5347-97f2-104ea5019772'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8082374632358551, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OP90KGLAH7CTQIQV6CEEC8LB0JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:18:18 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OP90KGLAH7CTQIQV6CEEC8LB0JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0106caa7-486f-549c-be7f-283b8ad7ac9b'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: International oil prices rose during the holidays, and commercial housing transactions were flat', 'author': 'Ye Fan, Wang Runmeng, Liu Yanhong', 'orgName': '西南证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000296', 'orgSName': '西南证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7W7YrgMctFKEWD0MmJDNp+0=', 'researcher': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000263735', '11000418732', '11000440469'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7W7YrgMctFKEWD0MmJDNp+0=', 'site': 'Southwest Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '西南证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622394158_1.pdf?1708360866000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622394158_1.pdf?1708360866000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: International oil prices rose during the holidays, and commercial housing transactions were flat', 'originalAuthor': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'originalContent': '摘要假日高频数据上游：原油价格假期期间上涨。截至2月16日，当周布伦特原油现货均价周环比上涨4.29%，WTI原油现货均价周环比上涨4.19%，由于假期期间中东地缘政治局势仍在持续发酵，引发市场对于原油供应中断的担忧。截至2月16日，当周CRB现货综合指数均值523.97，周环比上升1.15%。中游：螺纹钢、动力煤价格较节前上涨，水泥价格较节前回落。2月18日，螺纹钢价格为4042元/吨，较春节前一周环比上涨0.27%，水泥价格指数为107.08，较春节前一周环比下降0.28%，秦皇岛港动力煤平仓价为921元/吨，较春节前一周环比上涨1.10%。下游：商品房成交对比去年春节下滑，但二手房成交回升。春节期间（2月10日-17日）商品房成交面积约5.11万平方米，较去年春节期间（2023年1月21日-27日）下降23.62%，但各线城市表现有所分化，一、二线城市商品房成交面积分别较去年春节回升72.96%和114.49%，但三线城市下降88.58%。春节期间，房地产市场表现较为一般，实际成交较为平淡，消费者观望情绪仍较重。但从二手房市场来看，贝壳研究院监测数据显示，2024年春节假期重点50城市二手房看房量和交易量水平比2023年春节假期有明显回升，同比增加超七成。物价：蔬菜、猪肉价格较节前下降。截至2月18日，当周农产品价格指数均值135.95环比上周下降0.95%，春节期间（2月10日-17日）农产品价格指数均值同比去年春节期间（2023年1月21日-27日）下降0.24%。2月18日，28种重点监测蔬菜和猪肉平均批发价分别为5.78和22.37元/公斤，较节前一周环比下降6.08%和1.95%。风险提示：地产复苏不及预期，消费复苏持续性低于预期。', 'content': 'Summary of holiday high-frequency data upstream: Crude oil prices rose during the holidays. As of February 16, the average spot price of Brent crude oil increased by 4.29% week-on-week, and the average spot price of WTI crude oil increased by 4.19% week-on-week. As the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continued to ferment during the holidays, the market was concerned about the interruption of crude oil supply. Worry. As of February 16, the average CRB spot composite index for that week was 523.97, a week-on-week increase of 1.15%. Midstream: Rebar and thermal coal prices have increased compared with before the holiday, while cement prices have dropped compared with before the holiday. On February 18, the rebar price was 4,042 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the week before the Spring Festival. The cement price index was 107.08, down 0.28% from the week before the Spring Festival. The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 921 yuan/ton. , a month-on-month increase of 1.10% from the week before the Spring Festival. Downstream: Commercial housing sales declined compared to last year’s Spring Festival, but second-hand housing sales rebounded. During the Spring Festival (February 10-17), the transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bcommercial housing was approximately 51,100 square meters, a decrease of 23.62% compared with last year’s Spring Festival (January 21-27, 2023). However, the performance of each tier of cities is somewhat differentiated. First, The transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bcommercial housing in second-tier cities rebounded by 72.96% and 114.49% respectively compared with last year’s Spring Festival, but in third-tier cities fell by 88.58%. During the Spring Festival, the performance of the real estate market was relatively average, actual transactions were relatively flat, and consumers were still in a wait-and-see mood. However, from the perspective of the second-hand housing market, monitoring data from the Shell Research Institute shows that the number of second-hand housing inspections and transaction volume in the 50 key cities during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday has significantly rebounded compared to the 2023 Spring Festival holiday, with a year-on-year increase of more than 70%. Prices: The prices of vegetables and pork have dropped compared with before the holiday. As of February 18, the average value of the agricultural product price index for that week was 135.95, a decrease of 0.95% from last week. During the Spring Festival (February 10-17), the average value of the agricultural product price index was year-on-year during the Spring Festival last year (January 21-27, 2023). down 0.24%. On February 18, the average wholesale prices of 28 key monitored vegetables and pork were 5.78 and 22.37 yuan/kg respectively, down 6.08% and 1.95% from the previous week. Risk warning: Real estate recovery is less than expected, and consumption recovery is less sustainable than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('d3389991-b216-5572-82e3-6396ad6aed04'), 'sentimentScore': 0.010324031114578247, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'HOR2BC7I5S6NTVT21UTU694T27VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:18:20 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'HOR2BC7I5S6NTVT21UTU694T27VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8a094df4-6449-5ee9-86ab-0b2a356016ff'), 'title': 'Macro Comment: January inflation data amid misaligned Spring Festival', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7UesKoWNh1VvmSrtVnaXCyw=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7UesKoWNh1VvmSrtVnaXCyw=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622391908_1.pdf?1708358997000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622391908_1.pdf?1708358997000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: January inflation data amid misaligned Spring Festival', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '事件：2月8日统计局公布2024年第一份通胀数据：1月CPI同比下降0.8%，环比上涨0.3%；1月PPI同比下降2.5%，环比下降0.2%。一、春节错位影响CPI同比读数偏低。1月整体CPI同比下降0.8%，录得2009年以来最低读数，主要受2023年春节落在1月以及疫后恢复涨价导致的高基数影响。1月食品价格同比下降5.9%，已连续7个月降幅走阔，为整体CPI同比走弱主要拖累因素。1月核心CPI同比收窄至0.4%同样受春节错位影响，参考同为2月中旬春节的2021年，其1月核心CPI同比大幅走弱至-0.3%。二、CPI环比连月回升显示实际需求持续修复。1月整体CPI环比上涨0.3%，显示实体需求有边际改善迹象。其中1月食品价格环比上涨0.4%，主要受寒潮天气影响驱动；1月核心CPI环比涨幅同样走阔至0.3%。不过整体CPI环比涨幅仍略低于季节性，显示价格修复动能仍在积蓄。三、服务与非食品消费品价格回暖。1月服务CPI环比上涨0.4%符合季节性，且高于晚春年份同期数据（2021年、2018年、2016年），反映旅游与外出消费的需求有明显改善。同时1月非食品消费品同比首次转正，居民可选商品消费有回暖迹象。乘联会公布1月乘用车市场零售同比增长57.4%，综合多因素来看，1月消费数据预计不差。四、PPI环比修复动力有限。1月PPI环比下降0.2%，同比因去年同期基数走弱回升至-2.5%。内部因素来看，节前生产开工景气有限，环比价格主要受上游端黑色及有色金属采选支撑，而下游行业生产价格普遍回落；外部方面，1月国际油价下跌带动国内油气化工价格回落，为PPI环比下降的主要拖累。五、一季度平减指数仍有继续处于负区间的风险。1月通胀数据继续反映需求复苏波动的特征，往后看，2月CPI同比预计因春节错位而反弹转正，后续回到温和复苏趋势，而PPI同比在一季���或仍在-2.0%水平波动，导致一季度GDP平减指数连续第四个季度处于负区间。从节奏上看，CPI同比转正的时点预计早于PPI同比。再通胀斜率偏缓亟需政策加码。节前降准对实体经济的修复作用有限，而近期一线楼市限购解绑与地产融资推进的政策效果还有待节后观察，就目前偏低的价格水平来看，宏观政策有必要在节后加码以加速本轮“再通胀”进程。我们预计春节假期后2月LPR有5-10bp的调降可能，流动性偏充裕的背景下2-3月政府债发行节奏也有望加快（一季度政府债净融资需达1.7万亿水平才能较好地防资金空转且维持财政力度）。风险提示：政策出台节奏及项目落地放缓导致经济复苏偏慢；海外经济体提前显著进入衰退，国内出口超预期萎缩。', 'content': 'Event: On February 8, the Bureau of Statistics released the first inflation data for 2024: CPI in January fell by 0.8% year-on-year and increased by 0.3% month-on-month; PPI in January fell by 2.5% year-on-year and decreased by 0.2% month-on-month. 1. The misalignment of the Spring Festival affects the lower year-on-year CPI reading. The overall CPI fell by 0.8% year-on-year in January, recording the lowest reading since 2009. This was mainly affected by the high base caused by the Spring Festival in 2023 falling in January and the resumption of price increases after the epidemic. Food prices fell by 5.9% year-on-year in January, which has been a widening decline for seven consecutive months. It is the main drag factor for the overall CPI to weaken year-on-year. The core CPI in January narrowed to 0.4% year-on-year, which was also affected by the Spring Festival dislocation. With reference to 2021, which also has the Spring Festival in mid-February, the core CPI in January weakened significantly to -0.3% year-on-year. 2. The month-on-month rebound in CPI shows that actual demand continues to recover. The overall CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month in January, showing signs of marginal improvement in physical demand. Among them, food prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month in January, mainly driven by the impact of cold wave weather; the core CPI month-on-month increase in January also widened to 0.3%. However, the overall CPI month-on-month increase is still slightly lower than seasonal, indicating that price recovery momentum is still building. 3. Prices of services and non-food consumer goods rebounded. The 0.4% month-on-month increase in service CPI in January is in line with seasonality and is higher than the same period in late spring years (2021, 2018, 2016), reflecting a significant improvement in demand for tourism and out-of-home consumption. At the same time, non-food consumer goods turned positive for the first time year-on-year in January, and residents’ consumption of optional goods showed signs of recovery. The Passenger Car Association announced that the retail sales of the passenger car market in January increased by 57.4% year-on-year. Based on multiple factors, January consumption data is expected to be good. 4. PPI chain repair power is limited. In January, PPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month, and rebounded to -2.5% year-on-year due to a weaker base in the same period last year. From the perspective of internal factors, the pre-holiday production boom was limited, and the month-on-month price was mainly supported by the upstream ferrous and non-ferrous metal mining, while the production prices in the downstream industry generally fell; externally, the fall in international oil prices in January led to a fall in domestic oil, gas and chemical prices, providing a The main drag on the month-on-month decline in PPI. 5. There is still a risk that the deflator in the first quarter will continue to be in the negative range. Inflation data in January continue to reflect the characteristics of demand recovery and fluctuation. Looking forward, the CPI in February is expected to rebound and turn positive due to the Spring Festival dislocation, and subsequently return to a moderate recovery trend, while the PPI may still fluctuate at -2.0% year-on-year in the first quarter. As a result, the GDP deflator in the first quarter was in the negative range for the fourth consecutive quarter. From a rhythm perspective, the year-on-year CPI is expected to turn positive earlier than the year-on-year PPI. The reflation slope is slow, and policies are urgently needed. The effect of the pre-holiday reserve requirement ratio reduction on the real economy is limited, and the effect of the recent policies to untie purchase restrictions in the first-tier property market and promote real estate financing has yet to be observed after the holiday. Judging from the current low price level, macroeconomic policies need to be stepped up after the holiday. To accelerate the current round of \"reflation\" process. We predict that the LPR may be reduced by 5-10bp in February after the Spring Festival holiday, and the pace of government bond issuance in February-March is also expected to accelerate against the background of ample liquidity (the net financing of government bonds in the first quarter needs to reach 1.7 trillion to be compared with To prevent idle funds and maintain financial strength). Risk warning: The slowdown in the pace of policy introduction and project implementation has led to a slow economic recovery; overseas economies have entered recession significantly ahead of schedule, and domestic exports have shrunk more than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9673922103829682, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '7DR970TQO4N0NS3GO8J49S08QJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:18:23 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '7DR970TQO4N0NS3GO8J49S08QJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('57c2a964-edd5-5022-8425-c73a79db505c'), 'title': 'Macro Commentary: How to understand January’s financial data that exceeded expectations?', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7YkYRpuv5hQHJR1Nmen69oA=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7YkYRpuv5hQHJR1Nmen69oA=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622390857_1.pdf?1708357567000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622390857_1.pdf?1708357567000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Commentary: How to understand January’s financial data that exceeded expectations?', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '事件： 2 月 9 日央行公布了 1 月金融数据， 新增社融 6.5 万亿，新增人民币贷款 49200 亿元，两者在去年同期高基数下均实现同比多增，超市场预期。如何理解平滑信贷导向下 1 月金融数据超预期“开门红”？ 第一，从 1月数据回溯来看，央行对信贷投放平滑均衡的引导目前更多体现在结构上—零售信贷同比多增，对公长贷保持力度，票据空转大幅减少；而新增总量冲高或离不开银行“年初投放早收益”因素，后月信贷投放可能回归央行导向而节奏放缓。第二，金融数据超预期是政策逆周期加码的体现。 新年伊始实体经济与市场仍处波动，经济“开门红”的压力下政策“雷厉风行”，从央行降准到房企“白名单”加速推进。我们认为假期后政策逆周期很可能继续发力， 2 月 20 日的 LPR 利率或迎调降， 3 月初的两会上赤字率可能上调至 3.5%~3.8%。1 月具体数据方面：居民部门信贷大幅多增。 1 月居民部门贷款增加 9801 亿元，为本次信贷总量同比多增的主要贡献。其中居民短贷同比多增 3187 亿元，结合1 月服务价格回升来看，春节前旅游及出行信用卡消费或有不少支撑。居民中长贷同比多增 4041 亿元，考虑到 1 月新房销售景气整体不及去年同期，居民中长贷可能更多由住户经营贷与长期消费贷组成。企业信贷量不及去年同期，但成色并不差。 1 月企业部门贷款同比少增8200 亿元，少增部分主要来自于票据大幅缩量，而反映实体融资的对公长贷在去年高基数下仅同比少增 1900 亿元， 1 月对公长贷 3.31 万亿元的新增量也是录得历史第二高，一方面是 PSL 向三大工程的投放体现，另一方面或也受近期房企项目融资支撑。新增社融同样创新高。 1 月社融在高基数下同比多增 5044 亿元，主要由企业债与表外票据贡献。直接融资方面，政府债同比少增 1193 亿元，新年财政的积极发力尚不明显；企业债同比多增 3197 亿元，一是由于去年基数较低，二是可能存在信贷需求外溢现象，央行最新发布的 2023年四季度货币政策执行报告新提“合理把握债券与信贷两个最大融资市场的关系”，或反映企业债等直接融资方式的重要性有所提升。表外方面， 1 月未贴现银票同比多增 2672 亿元，历史上来看未贴现银票与表内票据融资多呈反比关系，反映信贷需求旺盛时银行收票需求降温，而企业寻求表外方式获得资金。 1 月委托、信托贷款分别同比变化-943 亿元、 794 亿元。存款方面， 1 月 M1 同比跳升至 5.9%值得注意，我们认为其背后有两大原因：一是春节因素，由于年终企业集中发放薪资，历史上 M1 在 1-2 月往往波动较大，观察春节假期同为 2 月中旬的 2018 及 2021 年，其M1 同比在 1 月均大幅冲高， 2 月大幅回落，今年可能也符合这一季节性；二是前期政策加码的资金到账，其中可能去年四季度的国债与 PSL资金，以及近期加速推进的房企项目“白名单”资金。而本次 1 月 M1同比反弹是否能反映实体预期好转还需观察春节因素消退后 2-3 月 M1的走势。1 月 M2 同比回落 1pct 至 8.7%， 一方面是受春节错位影响，去年居民存款基数较高；另一方面是 1 月政府存款新增 8604 亿元，同比多增 1776亿元。风险提示： 政策出台节奏及项目落地放缓导致经济复苏偏慢；海外经济体提前显著进入衰退，国内出口超预期萎缩。', 'content': 'Event: On February 9, the central bank announced financial data for January, which showed that new social financing amounted to 6.5 trillion yuan and new RMB loans amounted to 4.92 trillion yuan. Both of them achieved year-on-year growth despite the high base in the same period last year, exceeding market expectations. How to understand the better-than-expected “good start” of financial data in January under the guidance of smooth credit? First, judging from the January data review, the central bank\\'s guidance on smooth and balanced credit is now more reflected in the structure - retail credit increased year-on-year, corporate loans were maintained, and the idling of bills was significantly reduced; while the total new amount The rise may be inseparable from the factor of banks\\' \"early returns from early release at the beginning of the year\", and credit supply in the following months may return to the guidance of the central bank and slow down. Second, financial data exceeding expectations is a reflection of countercyclical policy increases. At the beginning of the new year, the real economy and the market were still fluctuating. Under the pressure of a \"good start\" for the economy, policies were implemented \"vigorously and vigorously\", from the central bank\\'s reduction in reserve requirements to the acceleration of the \"white list\" of real estate companies. We believe that countercyclical policies are likely to continue to exert force after the holidays. The LPR interest rate may be lowered on February 20, and the deficit rate may be raised to 3.5%~3.8% at the two sessions in early March. In terms of specific data in January: Residential sector credit increased significantly. Residential sector loans increased by 980.1 billion yuan in January, which was the main contributor to the year-on-year increase in total credit. Among them, short-term loans to residents increased by 318.7 billion yuan year-on-year. Judging from the recovery in service prices in January, there may be a lot of support for tourism and travel credit card consumption before the Spring Festival. Residential medium and long-term loans increased by 404.1 billion yuan year-on-year. Considering that the overall sales boom of new homes in January was not as good as the same period last year, resident medium- and long-term loans may be more composed of household operating loans and long-term consumer loans. The amount of corporate credit is less than that of the same period last year, but the quality is not bad. Loans to the corporate sector in January decreased by 820 billion yuan year-on-year. The decrease was mainly due to the sharp shrinkage of bills. Long-term corporate loans, which reflect entity financing, only increased by 190 billion yuan year-on-year against a high base last year. The new increase in loans of 3.31 trillion yuan was also the second highest in history. On the one hand, it is reflected in PSL\\'s investment in three major projects, and on the other hand, it may also be supported by the recent project financing of real estate companies. New social financing also hit a new high. In January, social financing increased by 504.4 billion yuan year-on-year on a high base, mainly contributed by corporate bonds and off-balance sheet bills. In terms of direct financing, government bonds increased by 119.3 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and the positive efforts of the New Year\\'s fiscal year are not yet obvious; corporate bonds increased by 319.7 billion yuan year-on-year. First, due to the low base last year, and secondly, there may be a spillover phenomenon of credit demand. The central bank The latest monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2023 newly mentioned \"reasonably grasping the relationship between the two largest financing markets, bonds and credit,\" which may reflect the increased importance of direct financing methods such as corporate bonds. On the off-balance sheet side, undiscounted bank notes increased by 267.2 billion yuan year-on-year in January. Historically, there has been an inverse relationship between undiscounted bank notes and on-balance sheet bill financing, reflecting that when credit demand is strong, banks’ demand for bill collection has cooled, while companies are seeking off-balance sheet financing. way to obtain funds. In January, the year-on-year changes in entrusted and trust loans were -94.3 billion yuan and 79.4 billion yuan respectively. In terms of deposits, it is worth noting that M1 jumped to 5.9% year-on-year in January. We believe there are two major reasons behind it: First, the Spring Festival factor. Due to the centralized payment of wages by companies at the end of the year, M1 has historically tended to fluctuate greatly from January to February. Observe The Spring Festival holidays are both in mid-February in 2018 and 2021, and their M1 surged sharply in January and fell sharply in February. This year may also be in line with this seasonality; second, the funds increased by previous policies have arrived, which may Treasury bonds and PSL funds in the fourth quarter of last year, as well as “whitelist” funds for real estate projects that have been accelerated recently. Whether the year-on-year rebound of M1 in January can reflect the improvement in physical expectations still needs to be observed after the Spring Festival factor subsides. The trend of M1 in February and March. M2 fell 1pct year-on-year to 8.7% in January. On the one hand, due to the dislocation of the Spring Festival, the base of household deposits was relatively high last year; on the other hand, government deposits increased by 860.4 billion yuan in January, an increase of 177.6 billion yuan year-on-year. Risk warning: The slowdown in the pace of policy introduction and project implementation has led to a slow economic recovery; overseas economies have entered recession significantly ahead of schedule, and domestic exports have shrunk more than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': 0.7324672769755125, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'LG6CVP207SM1TKOU66LASDAJCRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:18:26 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'LG6CVP207SM1TKOU66LASDAJCRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('fcb5777e-18c0-53fe-a0af-fbe24ef4058b'), 'title': 'U.S. Economy: Retail sales data show signs of slowing consumption', 'author': 'Ye Bingnan, Liu Zehui', 'orgName': '招银国际金融有限公司', 'orgCode': '80027629', 'orgSName': '招银国际', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7UHp0DVbowqMaw2aT03N7/8=', 'researcher': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000395738', '11000444841'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7UHp0DVbowqMaw2aT03N7/8=', 'site': 'CMB International Capital Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招银国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622387569_1.pdf?1708355937000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622387569_1.pdf?1708355937000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. Economy: Retail sales data show signs of slowing consumption', 'originalAuthor': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'originalContent': '美国1月零售数据环比下降0.8%，不及市场预期。如我们在上月报告中指出（链接），12月季节性因素调整成为1月零售环比增速不及预期的重要原因，同时天气过冷也有影响。美国消费正在放缓，信用卡与汽车贷款违约率不断攀升，持续领取失业金人数持续增加，但首次领取失业金人数仍处于历史低位。招工节奏放缓将逐渐传导为更高的裁员水平，就业市场将有所放缓。但经济显著降温仍需时间，美联储需要更多数据确信通胀将趋近2%的目标。长时间限制性利率将拖累远期经济前景，美联储将从“更高更久”的加息周期转为“更迟更快”的降息周期。我们预计美联储可能在5月启动降息周期，首次降息25个基点左右，6月第二次降息幅度扩大至50个基点，因确认美国经济和通胀显著下降，全年降息幅度150个基点，联邦基金利率年底在3.8%左右。我们预计美国名义GDP增速将从2023年的6.3%降至2024年的3.7%，2024-2025年潜在名义GDP增速为4.2%，预计10年国债收益率从2023年末的3.9%降至2024年末的3.75%。零售数据表现不及预期。美国12月零售和食品服务销售季调环比下降0.8%，低于市场预期，主要由于机动车及零部件和加油站均环比下降1.7%。除机动车、零部件及加油站外的零售环比下跌0.5%。核心零售环比下降0.4%，主因网购等非店铺零售下跌0.8%。零售数据中大多数项目均有所走弱，食品服务和餐吧以及家具和家用装饰是为数不多的亮点，环比分别增长0.7%和1.5%。如我们在上月报告中指出，12月零售超预期受到统计中季节性因素向下调整变小的影响，1月数据季节性上调幅度缩小。除季节性因素调整外，1月过低的气温也是导致零售数据走弱的重要原因。总体来看，零售数据显示出美国消费放缓迹象，消费信贷增速不断放缓，信用卡与汽车贷款违约率持续上升。持续领取失业金人数不断上升。2月第一周的持续领取失业金人数环比增加3万人至189.5万人，过去四周平均数据为2021年底以来最高，显示美国企业招工节奏正在放缓，未来失业率将有所回升。2月第二周的首次申请失业金人数则小幅下降0.8万人至21.2万人，过去四周平均仍处于历史低点，显示美国就业市场依然较强。总体来看，美国就业市场正在放缓，但依然较强，预计未来随着经济进一步降温，招工节奏可能逐步放缓，导致更高的裁员水平，薪资增速将逐渐回落。经济将逐步降温，但冷却仍需时间。2023年第4季度以来，美国消费者信心和房价有所反弹，显示经济仍有韧性。支撑美国经济的主要因素包括：一是就业市场依然较强，空缺职位数/失业人数仍显著高于疫情前，薪资增速虽然放缓，但仍然超过4%，支撑家庭可支配收入增长和消费信心居高。二是房价和股价高企，家庭净财富创历史新高，通过财富效应和信心渠道刺激消费增长。三是剧烈加息周期对家庭偿债负担的传导比较滞后，因家庭长期存量贷款以固定利率贷款为主，偿债负担率在此轮加息周期中上升缓慢。但经济韧性将延长高利率持续时间，进而对远期经济产生抑制作用。随着实际利率高企，经济活动可能逐步放缓，2Q24可能是经济显著放缓的转折点。我们预计美联储可能在5月启动降息周期，首次降息25个基点左右，6月第二次降息幅度扩大至50个基点，因确认美国经济和通胀显著下降，全年降息幅度150个基点，联邦基金利率年底在3.8%左右。我们预计美国名义GDP增速将从2023年的6.3%降至2024年的3.7%，2024-2025年潜在名义GDP增速为4.2%，预计10年国债收益率将从2023年末的3.9%降至2024年末的3.75%。', 'content': 'U.S. retail sales data in January fell 0.8% month-on-month, lower than market expectations. As we pointed out in last month’s report (link), seasonal adjustment in December became an important reason why retail sales growth in January was lower than expected. At the same time, too cold weather also had an impact. U.S. consumption is slowing down, credit card and car loan default rates are rising, and the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits continues to increase, but the number of people receiving unemployment benefits for the first time is still at a historically low level. The slowdown in recruitment will gradually translate into higher levels of layoffs, and the job market will slow down. But it will take time for the economy to cool significantly, and the Fed needs more data to be confident that inflation will approach its 2% target. Long-term restrictive interest rates will drag down the forward economic outlook, and the Federal Reserve will shift from a \"higher and longer\" interest rate hike cycle to a \"later and faster\" interest rate cut cycle. We expect that the Federal Reserve may start an interest rate cutting cycle in May, cutting interest rates for the first time by about 25 basis points, and expanding the second rate cut to 50 basis points in June. Due to the confirmation that the U.S. economy and inflation have declined significantly, the rate cut for the whole year will be 150 basis points. The fund rate will be around 3.8% at the end of the year. We expect the U.S. nominal GDP growth to fall from 6.3% in 2023 to 3.7% in 2024. The potential nominal GDP growth in 2024-2025 is 4.2%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is expected to fall from 3.9% at the end of 2023 to 2024. 3.75% at the end of the year. Retail sales data fell short of expectations. U.S. retail and food service sales in December fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.8% month-on-month, lower than market expectations, mainly due to a month-on-month decrease of 1.7% in motor vehicles and parts and gas stations. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles, parts and gas stations fell 0.5% month-on-month. Core retail sales fell by 0.4% month-on-month, mainly due to a 0.8% decline in non-store retail sales such as online shopping. Most items in the retail data weakened, with food services and restaurants and bars and furniture and home decoration being the few bright spots, with month-on-month increases of 0.7% and 1.5% respectively. As we pointed out in last month\\'s report, December retail sales exceeded expectations due to the smaller downward adjustment of seasonal factors in statistics, and the seasonal upward adjustment of January data narrowed. In addition to seasonal adjustment, low temperatures in January were also an important reason for the weakening retail sales data. Overall, retail sales data show signs of a slowdown in U.S. consumption, consumer credit growth continues to slow, and credit card and auto loan default rates continue to rise. The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits continues to rise. The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits in the first week of February increased by 30,000 from the previous month to 1.895 million. The average data over the past four weeks is the highest since the end of 2021, indicating that the hiring pace of American companies is slowing down and the unemployment rate will pick up in the future. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the second week of February dropped slightly by 8,000 to 212,000. The average number of people filing for unemployment benefits over the past four weeks is still at a historical low, indicating that the U.S. job market is still strong. Overall, the U.S. job market is slowing down, but still strong. It is expected that as the economy further cools down in the future, the pace of hiring may gradually slow down, leading to higher levels of layoffs, and wage growth will gradually fall back. The economy will gradually cool down, but cooling will still take time. Since the fourth quarter of 2023, U.S. consumer confidence and housing prices have rebounded, showing that the economy is still resilient. The main factors supporting the U.S. economy include: First, the job market is still strong, the number of vacancies/number of unemployed people is still significantly higher than before the epidemic, and although wage growth has slowed, it still exceeds 4%, supporting the growth of household disposable income and Consumer confidence remains high. Second, housing prices and stock prices are high, and household net wealth has hit a record high, stimulating consumption growth through wealth effects and confidence channels. Third, the transmission of the dramatic interest rate hike cycle to households\\' debt repayment burden is relatively lagging. Since households\\' long-term existing loans are mainly fixed-rate loans, the debt repayment burden ratio rises slowly during this interest rate hike cycle. However, economic resilience will prolong the duration of high interest rates, thereby inhibiting the long-term economy. As real interest rates remain high, economic activity may gradually slow down, and 2Q24 may be the turning point for a significant economic slowdown. We expect that the Federal Reserve may start an interest rate cutting cycle in May, cutting interest rates for the first time by about 25 basis points, and expanding the second rate cut to 50 basis points in June. Due to the confirmation that the U.S. economy and inflation have declined significantly, the rate cut for the whole year will be 150 basis points. The fund rate will be around 3.8% at the end of the year. We expect the U.S. nominal GDP growth to fall from 6.3% in 2023 to 3.7% in 2024. The potential nominal GDP growth in 2024-2025 is 4.2%. We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to fall from 3.9% at the end of 2023. 3.75% at the end of 2024.', 'authorid': UUID('08f97a71-1879-5f33-a1aa-79c7a17d8bf9'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9591567749157548, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3V5Q3JSD7DH29TI7I0I6BMH2LRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:18:28 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3V5Q3JSD7DH29TI7I0I6BMH2LRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('efa43921-cec3-5a6b-9162-f24c8ea97bd9'), 'title': 'Weekly observation of major asset classes', 'author': 'Pu Zulin', 'orgName': '正信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80019274', 'orgSName': '正信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7cf+b4xu7im6uxTvazp5JfA=', 'researcher': '蒲祖林', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000438232'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7cf+b4xu7im6uxTvazp5JfA=', 'site': 'Zhengxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '正信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622386514_1.pdf?1708349347000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622386514_1.pdf?1708349347000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly observation of major asset classes', 'originalAuthor': '蒲祖林', 'originalContent': '大类资产周评：美国1月通胀超预期表现，国内政策托底经济遏制风险策略概述1、美国1月CPI和PPI双双强于预期，彻底浇灭市场乐观降息预期，美债利率反弹新高，风险资产价格高位承压，本周美联储将公布1月货币政策会议纪要，关注联储官员在强劲的经济数据面前对降息前景的指引。2、国内救市资金入场遏制股市流动性风险，1月社融和信贷数据表现亮眼，春节长假消费火热，经济有望边际好转，国内风险资产价格止跌反弹。短期货币供需中性，地方政府债务和企业债务融资需求维持高位，资金价格小幅回落。地产高频销售长假期间表现一般，制造业产能利用率季节性下滑，经济能否边际复苏仍需更强宽财政政策刺激，关注本周是否调降LPR贷款利率投资要点美国核心PCE通胀在高利率的约束下已经进入乐观区间，四季度GDP和居民收入增速趋势性下降，制造业维持在荣枯线以下，美联储政策大概率已经确认进入降息周期前夕，美国经济将不可避免进入浅衰退或软着陆，但是具有滞后性的劳动力缺口巨大和服务业通胀绝对水平高位等均显示预期美联储迅速进入降息周期为时尚早，市场或将在降息的乐观预期和延后降息之间来回摆动，短期金融市场在超预期经济数据陆续兑现的背景下不断推迟降息预期，金融条件持续趋紧。中国因总需求不足仍需等待更多一揽子刺激政策执行落地，经济短期预计仍将寻底，政策层面兜底意愿愈发增强，市场信心有望边际改善。本周大类资产配置方面建议回调配置风险资产（股票）和反弹做空做避险资产（国债），权益市场止跌后风格预计成长占优；商品预计延续震荡分化，建议回调波段做多配置有色和化工相关工业品，反弹做空基建相关黑色工业品，农产品内部走势分化，建议急跌做多天气炒作的豆类品种；利率走势低位震荡反弹，与股市形成镜像，建议反弹波段做空十债或多短空长套利，美国实际利率震荡反弹，贵金属价格短期预计震荡筑底，建议回调做多黄金和白银。风险提示美国通胀和就业扰动、国内实体经济恢复不及预期、中东巴以冲突和红海危机扩散', 'content': \"Weekly Review of Major Assets: U.S. inflation exceeded expectations in January, and an overview of domestic policies to support economic containment risk strategies 1. The U.S. CPI and PPI in January were both stronger than expected, completely extinguishing the market’s optimistic interest rate cut expectations, and U.S. bond interest rates rebounded to new highs. Risk asset prices are under pressure at high levels. This week the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its January monetary policy meeting, focusing on Fed officials' guidance on the prospects for interest rate cuts in the face of strong economic data. 2. The entry of domestic bailout funds has curbed liquidity risks in the stock market. The social financing and credit data in January performed well. Consumption during the Spring Festival holiday was booming. The economy is expected to improve marginally. Domestic risk asset prices have stopped falling and rebounded. Short-term money supply and demand are neutral, local government debt and corporate debt financing needs remain high, and fund prices have fallen slightly. High-frequency real estate sales performed generally during the long holiday, and manufacturing capacity utilization declined seasonally. Whether the economy can recover at the margin still requires more fiscal policy stimulus. Pay attention to whether the LPR loan interest rate will be lowered this week. Investment points. U.S. core PCE inflation is at high interest rates. It has entered an optimistic range under the constraints of the epidemic. The growth rate of GDP and household income in the fourth quarter has trended downwards. The manufacturing industry has remained below the boom-bust line. The Federal Reserve policy has most likely confirmed that it will enter an interest rate cut cycle. The U.S. economy will inevitably enter a shallow recession or soft recession. Landing, but the huge labor gap with hysteresis and the high absolute level of service industry inflation indicate that it is too early to expect the Fed to quickly enter the interest rate cutting cycle. The market may swing back and forth between optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts and delayed interest rate cuts. Short-term financial markets Against the background of the continuous realization of unexpected economic data, expectations of interest rate cuts have been continuously postponed, and financial conditions continue to tighten. Due to insufficient aggregate demand, China still needs to wait for the implementation of more stimulus packages. The economy is still expected to find a bottom in the short term. The policy level is increasingly willing to bottom out, and market confidence is expected to improve marginally. In terms of asset allocation this week, it is recommended to call back and allocate risky assets (stocks) and go short on rebounds and go for safe-haven assets (treasury bonds). After the equity market stops falling, the style is expected to grow. Commodities are expected to continue to fluctuate and differentiate. It is recommended to go long and allocate non-ferrous metals in the callback band. and chemical-related industrial products, rebound and short infrastructure-related black industrial products, the internal trend of agricultural products is divided, it is recommended to go long on bean varieties that have been speculated by the weather after a sharp decline; the interest rate trend fluctuates and rebounds at a low level, forming a mirror image with the stock market, it is recommended to short ten bonds or more in the rebound band Short-term and long-term arbitrage, U.S. real interest rates fluctuated and rebounded, precious metal prices are expected to fluctuate and bottom in the short term, and it is recommended to call back and go long on gold and silver. Risks include disruptions to U.S. inflation and employment, domestic real economic recovery that is less than expected, the Middle East-Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the spread of the Red Sea crisis\", 'authorid': UUID('aebc7166-97b8-5419-ad05-d62abbd6b41f'), 'sentimentScore': 0.2072669118642807, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TIU27JUGHDC0IFB1S3TN92SE63VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:18:31 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TIU27JUGHDC0IFB1S3TN92SE63VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('4ee25d03-b285-5af3-89cf-e1c7f76ecac7'), 'title': '[Guangdong Open Macro] Challenges caused by land finance and solutions', 'author': 'Luo Zhiheng, Fang Kun', 'orgName': '粤开证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000118', 'orgSName': '粤开证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7WkbMv4iEYO0FA8TXcAHn6M=', 'researcher': '罗志恒,方堃', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245432', '11000282034'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7WkbMv4iEYO0FA8TXcAHn6M=', 'site': 'Guangdong Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '粤开证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622386492_1.pdf?1708350372000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622386492_1.pdf?1708350372000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '[Guangdong Open Macro] Challenges caused by land finance and solutions', 'originalAuthor': '罗志恒,方堃', 'originalContent': '近年来，伴随中国经济增速换挡以及企业面临内外部压力挑战，中国持续推出减税降费等积极财政政策，有力地促进了经济恢复发展、稳定就业、改善民生、推动科技创新、防范重大风险等。但是，与之相随的是中国宏观税负持续下行、债务攀升等，财政债务问题越发受到各方较大关注。2023年是疫情平稳转段后的第一年，经济总体在持续恢复，财政收入呈现恢复性增长；但是，房地产由于供需形势逆转，低迷的房地产市场引发房地产相关税收下行、土地出让收入锐减、以土地作抵押的土地融资受到冲击，西部和东北部分城市的土地出让收入与疫情前相比更是下降90%以上，直接导致了部分省份、部分城市可支配财力大幅下降，从而衍生出城投风险、金融风险等系列问题。这种背景下，地方财政采取短期应对措施包括处置资产、紧缩支出、突击罚没、拖欠账款、债务融资五种手段。地方政府主动作为纾解财政矛盾，力避地方财政流动性危机，同时部分手段如增加收费和罚款、压减公共服务支出可能产生弱化减税降费效果、破坏营商环境等后果，也要引起高度重视并探索新的根本解决之道。解决土地财政冲击既在于当前采取果断措施稳定宏观经济尤其是稳定房地产，更在于从体制机制推动一系列改革，包括明确政府与市场关系以界定政府职能和政府支出规模，上收事权和支出责任，稳定宏观税负等。理性客观分析当前财政和债务形势，总结梳理地方政府五大自救行为的利弊，进而提出建议对策以应对目前局面，尤为必要。我们认为，在党中央国务院的坚强领导下，扎实推进中央经济工作会议提出的谋划新一轮财税体制改革，财政债务将更可持续，年年困难年年过，年年过年年好。风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，房地产低迷持续超预期，地方财政预算执行数据披露不完整。', 'content': \"In recent years, as China's economic growth has shifted gears and enterprises have faced internal and external pressures and challenges, China has continued to introduce proactive fiscal policies such as tax cuts and fee reductions, which have effectively promoted economic recovery and development, stabilized employment, improved people's livelihood, promoted scientific and technological innovation, and prevented major disasters. Risks etc. However, this has been accompanied by a continued decline in China's macro tax burden and rising debt, and the issue of fiscal debt has attracted greater attention from all parties. 2023 is the first year after the epidemic has stabilized. The economy as a whole continues to recover, and fiscal revenue shows restorative growth; however, due to the reversal of supply and demand in real estate, the sluggish real estate market has triggered a decline in real estate-related taxes, a sharp drop in land transfer revenue, Land financing using land as collateral has been affected. Land transfer income in some cities in the west and northeast has dropped by more than 90% compared with before the epidemic. This has directly led to a significant decline in the disposable financial resources of some provinces and cities, thus deriving urban investment risks. , financial risks and other series of issues. In this context, local finance adopts five short-term response measures, including asset disposal, expenditure tightening, sudden fines and confiscations, arrears of accounts, and debt financing. Local governments take the initiative to relieve fiscal conflicts and avoid local fiscal liquidity crises. At the same time, some measures, such as increasing fees and fines, and reducing public service expenditures, may have consequences such as weakening the effect of tax reductions and fee reductions and damaging the business environment, which will also cause a high degree of concern. Pay attention to and explore new fundamental solutions. Solving the impact of land finance lies not only in taking decisive measures to stabilize the macroeconomy, especially stabilizing real estate, but also in promoting a series of reforms in institutional mechanisms, including clarifying the relationship between the government and the market to define government functions and the scale of government expenditures, and increasing collection rights and expenditure responsibilities. Stabilizing the macro tax burden, etc. It is particularly necessary to rationally and objectively analyze the current fiscal and debt situation, summarize and sort out the pros and cons of the five major self-rescue actions of local governments, and then put forward suggestions and countermeasures to deal with the current situation. We believe that under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, we will solidly advance the plan for a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform proposed by the Central Economic Work Conference, and fiscal debt will be more sustainable, and we will overcome difficulties every year and enjoy good times every year. Risk warning: The economic recovery is less than expected, the real estate downturn continues to exceed expectations, and the disclosure of local fiscal budget execution data is incomplete.\", 'authorid': UUID('7ccf0175-14a6-508f-bd91-25f1f3d4d5c0'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9220514185726643, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '5P7PAKRNND8IIDHDQGACH5TPVFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:18:34 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '5P7PAKRNND8IIDHDQGACH5TPVFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e474665d-04ad-5b8b-9181-f5ee06037542'), 'title': 'Macro Dynamic Tracking Report: Spring Festival Data Insights into Year of the Dragon Consumption', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Chang Yixin', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7bdZZWKeEolL0YZ4yoWnS7Q=', 'researcher': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000387731'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7bdZZWKeEolL0YZ4yoWnS7Q=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622386481_1.pdf?1708349050000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622386481_1.pdf?1708349050000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Dynamic Tracking Report: Spring Festival Data Insights into Year of the Dragon Consumption', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'originalContent': '平安观点：春节是中国最重要的节日，也是传统消费旺季，从中或亦能寻得全年消费变化的线索。我们本篇报告聚焦于春节假期的多维数据，探究2024年国内需求的韧性所在。2024年春节出行火热，消费量增，体现内需韧性。1）春节出行火热，结构亮点在于民航和铁路，跨境客流也有进一步提升；注意到，疫情后主要假期自驾出行热度不减，中长期或有助于乘用车渗透率的提升。2）消费量增，服务消费成为最大亮点。春节假期增值税发票口径的服务消费增长超5成，旅游收入的恢复率接近前期高点；商贸零售、支付交易分别录得6.6%和8%的同比增速，在高基数基础下表现尚可。然而，消费客单价短期或受制于居民消费能力，仍有较大提升空间；这体现为，旅游人均消费约为19年同期9成，电影票价同比下滑，支付笔数增速远超金额增��。然而，春节期间新房和二手房销售弱于以往，尤其是低能级城市返乡置业偏弱，房地产市场走向趋势性恢复仍需时日。国内出行火热，跨境进一步恢复。1）春运前23天日均跨区域人员流动2.3亿人次，农历同比增长15.8%，较2019年同期增长14.4%。节奏上，人员流动在自腊月二十八至正月初八持续强于历史同期，或因春节假期错位，且叠加居民返乡、外出旅游意愿偏强的影响。2）出入境人员规模恢复至2019年同期的9成，国际航班接近于2019年的7成。3）百度迁徙指数较23年同期增10%，较29年同期增38%；全国重点旅游景区、购物中心的平均客流同比表现弱于2023年春节以来的主要假期。春节假期国内消费量增，客单价仍有提升空间。1）国内旅游收入同比增长47%，较19年同期增7.7%。以19年为基准，今年春节假期旅游收入的恢复率是2020年以来主要假期中最高的一次；而人均旅游支出仅恢复至2019年同期的90.5%，弱于2023年中秋国庆假期。2）服务消费加速增长。从增值税发票数据看，今年春节服务消费同比增长52%，高于2023年春节的13.5%、2023年中秋国庆假期的20.9%。春节档全国电影票房收入、总观影人次均破历史记录，受假期延长影响；而日均票房收入、日均人次和电影票均价同比分别增长3.8%、10.6%、-6.1%。3）商贸零售同比增速约6.6%，不及2023年的春节和国庆黄金周。以此推断，2024年全年社零增速有望落在5%-6%的区间。4）除夕至大年初八，网络支付日均交易金额同比增8%，日均交易笔数同比增18.6%。春节假期商品房销售低迷。新房方面，61个样本城市春节期间农历同比约-26.8%，较节前一周跌幅走阔1.2个百分点。其中，一二线城市较节前小幅回落；四五线城市更弱，跌幅较节前一周走阔10个百分点。二手房方面，春节期间农历同比约-6.1%，增速回落11.6个百分点。2024年正月初五至初八的新房和二手房成交面积仅略高于受疫情影响的2020年，与春节假期时间较长存在关联，也体现出居民购房意愿偏弱。', 'content': \"Ping An's perspective: The Spring Festival is the most important festival in China and is also the traditional peak season for consumption, from which we may find clues to changes in consumption throughout the year. Our report focuses on the multi-dimensional data of the Spring Festival holiday to explore the resilience of domestic demand in 2024. Travel will be popular during the Spring Festival in 2024, and consumption will increase, reflecting the resilience of domestic demand. 1) Travel during the Spring Festival is hot, with civil aviation and railways as the structural highlights, and cross-border passenger flow has also further increased. It is noted that the popularity of self-driving travel during major holidays has not diminished after the epidemic, which may help increase the penetration rate of passenger cars in the medium and long term. 2) Consumption volume increases, and service consumption becomes the biggest highlight. Service consumption based on value-added tax invoices during the Spring Festival holiday increased by more than 50%, and the recovery rate of tourism revenue was close to the previous high; commercial retail and payment transactions recorded year-on-year growth rates of 6.6% and 8% respectively, which are acceptable on a high base. . However, in the short term, the unit price of consumers may be subject to residents' spending power, and there is still much room for improvement; this is reflected in the fact that per capita tourism consumption is about 90% in the same period of 2019, movie ticket prices have declined year-on-year, and the growth rate of the number of payments far exceeds the increase in amount. speed. However, during the Spring Festival, sales of new and second-hand houses were weaker than in the past, especially for low-energy cities returning home to buy properties. It will still take some time for the real estate market to recover. Domestic travel is booming and cross-border travel is further recovering. 1) In the 23 days before the Spring Festival travel season, the average daily cross-regional movement of people was 230 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.8% and a 14.4% increase compared with the same period in 2019. In terms of rhythm, the flow of people continued to be stronger than the same period in history from the 28th of the twelfth lunar month to the eighth day of the first lunar month, perhaps due to the misalignment of the Spring Festival holiday and the superimposed impact of residents’ strong willingness to return home and travel. 2) The number of people entering and leaving the country has returned to 90% of the same period in 2019, and the number of international flights is close to 70% of the level in 2019. 3) Baidu migration index increased by 10% compared with the same period in 2023 and 38% compared with the same period in 2029; the average passenger flow of key tourist attractions and shopping malls across the country was weaker than that of the major holidays since the Spring Festival in 2023. Domestic consumption increased during the Spring Festival holiday, and there is still room for improvement in unit price. 1) Domestic tourism revenue increased by 47% year-on-year and 7.7% compared with the same period in 2019. Based on 2019, the recovery rate of tourism revenue during this year's Spring Festival holiday is the highest among major holidays since 2020; while per capita tourism expenditure has only recovered to 90.5% of the same period in 2019, which is weaker than the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday in 2023. 2) The growth of service consumption is accelerating. Judging from VAT invoice data, service consumption during the Spring Festival this year increased by 52% year-on-year, which is higher than the 13.5% increase during the Spring Festival in 2023 and the 20.9% increase during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday in 2023. During the Spring Festival, the national movie box office revenue and total number of moviegoers broke historical records, affected by the extended holiday; while the average daily box office revenue, average daily number of visitors, and average movie ticket price increased by 3.8%, 10.6%, and -6.1% respectively year-on-year. 3) The year-on-year growth rate of commercial retail sales is approximately 6.6%, which is lower than the Spring Festival and National Day Golden Week in 2023. Inferring from this, the social retail growth rate for the whole of 2024 is expected to fall in the range of 5%-6%. 4) From New Year’s Eve to the eighth day of the Lunar New Year, the average daily online payment transaction amount increased by 8% year-on-year, and the average daily transaction number increased by 18.6% year-on-year. Commercial housing sales were sluggish during the Spring Festival holiday. In terms of new homes, the lunar new home sales in 61 sample cities during the Spring Festival were approximately -26.8% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points wider than the decline in the week before the holiday. Among them, first- and second-tier cities fell slightly compared with before the holiday; fourth- and fifth-tier cities were even weaker, with a decline of 10 percentage points wider than the week before the holiday. In terms of second-hand housing, during the Spring Festival, the lunar calendar year-on-year sales were about -6.1%, and the growth rate dropped by 11.6 percentage points. The transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bnew and second-hand houses from the fifth to the eighth day of the first lunar month in 2024 is only slightly higher than that in 2020, which was affected by the epidemic. This is related to the long Spring Festival holiday and also reflects the weak willingness of residents to buy houses.\", 'authorid': UUID('149306d1-3d93-5b17-941a-f5aa3a00dc04'), 'sentimentScore': 0.6788077056407928, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'RH9AAT6SKEDJH5TS2RPNK7LBJ7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:18:36 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'RH9AAT6SKEDJH5TS2RPNK7LBJ7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e32e75d0-23c2-5c1a-b869-96f16145961c'), 'title': 'High-frequency data tracking: Travel and entertainment consumption are hot during the festival', 'author': 'Liang Weichao, Cui Chao', 'orgName': '中邮证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80036717', 'orgSName': '中邮证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7bvr24zZc5TnQ/p/Rdv9pz8=', 'researcher': '梁伟超,崔超', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000267232', '11000398332'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7bvr24zZc5TnQ/p/Rdv9pz8=', 'site': 'China Post Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中邮证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622386219_1.pdf?1708347985000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622386219_1.pdf?1708347985000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'High-frequency data tracking: Travel and entertainment consumption are hot during the festival', 'originalAuthor': '梁伟超,崔超', 'originalContent': '核心观点春节假期期间，居民消费保持较高热度，春节档电影票房创历史纪录，旅游人次、花费大幅增长并超2019年，全国发送旅客量大幅增加，其中民航客运量同比翻倍。2024年春节假期较往年多一天，对相关数据增长有一定推动作用，但居民消费意愿的恢复是主要原因。物价方面，农产品价格节后逐步回落，原油或将偏强运行。短期关注节后生产和房地产市场恢复情况。生产：节前季节性下降，化工生产相对稳定2月16日当周，焦炉产能利用率较前一周���升0.04pct，螺纹钢产量减少4.75万吨、库存增加72.93万吨。2月9日当周，高炉开工率较前一周升高0.24pct，石油沥青开工率延续下行，PX、PTA开工率稳中有升，汽车全钢胎、半钢胎开工率季节性大幅下降。需求：电影票房创记录，旅游热度超2019年电影：春节档（2.10-17）票房合计80.16亿元，观影人次为1.63亿，分别较2023年春节档增长18.47%和26.36%，创历史最高记录。旅游：春节假期（2.10-17）国内旅游4.74亿人次，同比增长34.3%，按可比口径较2019年同期增长19.0%；国内出游总花费6326.87亿元，同比增长47.3%，按可比口径较2019年同期增长7.7%。2月11日当周，节前商品房成交、土地供应面积季节性下降，存销比升幅较大。1月底汽车零售、批发量大幅增长，并超历年同期水平。节前国内航运指数小幅下降，节后BDI指数震荡回升。物价：原油偏强运行，农产品季节性回落2月16日布伦特原油、铜、铝、锌价格分别较前一周+1.56%、+3.46%、-0.02%、+3.98%。2月18日农产品较节前大幅回落，步入季节性下行通道。2月8日节前国内焦煤、螺纹钢价格分别较前一周+0.44、-0.57%。物流：假期旅客运量大幅增长，货运流量指数回升春节假期（2.10-17）全国发送旅客人次同比大幅增长，尤其是民航客运量翻倍，铁路、水路涨幅超90%，居民出行意愿较强。节后地铁客运量、整车货运流量指数稳步回升。风险提示：政策效果不及预期，流动性超预期收紧。', 'content': \"Core Points: During the Spring Festival holiday, residents' consumption remained high, the box office of Spring Festival movies hit a record, tourist arrivals and expenditures increased significantly and exceeded those in 2019, and the number of passengers sent across the country increased significantly, with civil aviation passenger volume doubling year-on-year. The Spring Festival holiday in 2024 will be one day longer than in previous years, which will have a certain role in promoting the growth of relevant data, but the recovery of residents' willingness to consume is the main reason. In terms of prices, agricultural product prices will gradually fall after the holiday, and crude oil may be stronger. In the short term, we will pay attention to the recovery of production and the real estate market after the holidays. Production: Seasonal decline before the holiday, chemical production was relatively stable. In the week of February 16, coke oven capacity utilization increased by 0.04pct from the previous week, rebar production decreased by 47,500 tons, and inventory increased by 729,300 tons. In the week of February 9, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.24pct from the previous week, the petroleum asphalt operating rate continued to decline, the PX and PTA operating rates increased steadily, and the automobile all-steel tire and semi-steel tire operating rates dropped significantly seasonally. Demand: The movie box office hit a record, and tourism popularity exceeded that of 2019 movies: the Spring Festival period (2.10-17) box office totaled 8.016 billion yuan, and the number of moviegoers was 163 million, an increase of 18.47% and 26.36% respectively compared with the 2023 Spring Festival period, a record high Record. Tourism: During the Spring Festival holiday (2.10-17), there were 474 million domestic tourism trips, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, and a 19.0% increase from the same period in 2019 on a comparable basis; the total domestic travel expenditure was 632.687 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.3%, and a comparable basis compared with the same period in 2019. Growth over the same period was 7.7%. In the week of February 11, commercial housing transactions and land supply area decreased seasonally before the holiday, and the inventory-to-sales ratio increased significantly. At the end of January, automobile retail and wholesale sales increased significantly and exceeded the levels of the same period in previous years. The domestic shipping index fell slightly before the holiday, but the BDI index rebounded after the holiday. Prices: Crude oil operated strongly, and agricultural products fell seasonally. On February 16, the prices of Brent crude oil, copper, aluminum, and zinc were +1.56%, +3.46%, -0.02%, and +3.98% respectively compared with the previous week. On February 18, agricultural products fell sharply compared with before the holiday, entering a seasonal downward channel. Before the holiday on February 8, domestic coking coal and rebar prices were +0.44 and -0.57% respectively compared with the previous week. Logistics: Passenger traffic increased significantly during the holidays, and the freight traffic index rebounded. During the Spring Festival holiday (2.10-17), the number of passengers sent across the country increased significantly year-on-year. In particular, civil aviation passenger traffic doubled, railway and waterway growth exceeded 90%, and residents had a strong willingness to travel. After the holiday, subway passenger volume and vehicle freight flow index have steadily recovered. Risk warning: Policy effects are less than expected, and liquidity tightens more than expected.\", 'authorid': UUID('b5b030b3-9cef-5220-88d2-33ed268af010'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9191797394305468, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'BAF27FDL8SSDB5PH0A6P0UE0MJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:18:38 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'BAF27FDL8SSDB5PH0A6P0UE0MJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0cd6f84f-496b-5a43-a5d3-49255d825f19'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: Holiday consumption improves, overseas waves continue', 'author': 'Ye Fan, Wang Runmeng, Liu Yanhong', 'orgName': '西南证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000296', 'orgSName': '西南证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7QnJXQdLcwFILvxLfFPiTBI=', 'researcher': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000263735', '11000418732', '11000440469'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7QnJXQdLcwFILvxLfFPiTBI=', 'site': 'Southwest Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '西南证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622384845_1.pdf?1708339332000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622384845_1.pdf?1708339332000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: Holiday consumption improves, overseas waves continue', 'originalAuthor': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'originalContent': '假日大事记国内：出行和观影数据向好，地产融资好消息频出。2月13日消息称，目前已有工、农、中、建四大国有银行等银行相继发布推动城市房地产融资协调机制落地相关工作进展和成效的消息，在政策支持下，房企融资面出现一些积极变化，但持续性仍有待支持政策的加速落地；14日，中国中小企业协会公布1月中小企业发展指数为89.2，比上月上升0.2点，财税政策持续发力，减税降费效果持续显现，叠加央行降准也将进一步降低中小企业的融资成本；14日，香港交易所举行庆贺新春开市仪式，截至16日香港恒生指数开盘连续三日上涨，后续在国内活跃资本市场相关政策推动下，加之经济基本面持续修复，港股市场投资者信心有望逐步得到改善；截至14日，春运前20天全社会跨区域人员流动量累计约45亿人次，同口径下比2019年增长11%，截至17日，春节档总票房也达78.44亿元，超过2021年春节档，后续随着经济基本面逐步企稳回升，国内服务消费有望继续改善。海外：美国通胀仍有韧性，日本经济修复受阻。当地时间2月13日，欧佩克称全球原油需求将在2024年保持强劲势头，目前国际油价供给方面因素仍存在扰动，且原油库存处于低位，国际油价短期或有所支撑，但联储维持高利率可能继续给需求端带来不确定性；13日，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国1月CPI同比增3.1%，虽然为去年6月以来最低水平，但高于预期，目前美国通胀仍有韧性，后续在就业市场保持有序降温的背景下，预计全年保持相对克制的降息幅度；当地时间15日，日本内阁府发布2023年四季度GDP初值，环比折年率下降0.4%，低于市场预期，展望2024年，由于海外经济体复苏步伐放缓，出口对日本经济的支撑作用或将逐渐减弱，内需是否能够得到改善还取决于通胀回落的速度以及工资增长的情况；当地时间15日，欧盟委员会将2024年欧元区GDP预测从1.2%下调至0.8%，根据目前欧洲的经济和通胀情况，预计欧元区在下半年降息的概率较大，建议密切关注数据变化情况。下周重点关注：中国2月一年期、五年期LPR（周二）；日本1月商品贸易帐、欧元区2月消费者信心指数（周三）；法国2023年第四季度GDP、德英法欧美2月Markit制造业、服务业PMI、欧元区1月调和CPI、美国1月成屋销售年化总数（周四）；德国2023年第四季度季调后GDP季率、2月IFO商业景气指数（周五）。风险提示：国内经济复苏不及预期，海外经济超预期下行。', 'content': \"Domestic holiday events: Travel and movie viewing data are improving, and good news on real estate financing is frequent. On February 13, it was reported that the four major state-owned banks including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the Agricultural Bank of China, the China Construction Bank and the Construction Bank of China have successively released news on the progress and results of the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism. With policy support, the financing of real estate enterprises has emerged. There are some positive changes, but their sustainability still needs to be accelerated by the implementation of supporting policies; on the 14th, the China Small and Medium Enterprises Association announced that the small and medium-sized enterprise development index in January was 89.2, an increase of 0.2 points from the previous month. Fiscal and taxation policies continued to work hard, and the effects of tax cuts and fee reductions were It continues to show that the combination of the central bank's RRR cuts will further reduce the financing costs of small and medium-sized enterprises; on the 14th, the Hong Kong Exchange held a ceremony to celebrate the opening of the New Year. As of the 16th, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose for three consecutive days after the opening of the market. Follow-up policies related to active domestic capital markets Driven by the epidemic and the continued restoration of economic fundamentals, investor confidence in the Hong Kong stock market is expected to gradually improve; as of the 14th, the cross-regional movement of people in the whole society in the 20 days before the Spring Festival has accumulated to approximately 4.5 billion people, an increase of 11% compared with 2019 on the same basis. , as of the 17th, the total box office for the Spring Festival period also reached 7.844 billion yuan, exceeding the 2021 Spring Festival period. As economic fundamentals gradually stabilize and rebound, domestic service consumption is expected to continue to improve. Overseas: U.S. inflation remains resilient, and Japan’s economic recovery is hampered. On February 13, local time, OPEC said that global crude oil demand will maintain a strong momentum in 2024. There are still disturbances in international oil price supply factors, and crude oil inventories are at low levels. International oil prices may be supported in the short term, but the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates. Continue to bring uncertainty to the demand side; on the 13th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the U.S. CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year in January. Although it was the lowest level since June last year, it was higher than expected. U.S. inflation is still resilient. , in the context of the orderly cooling of the job market, it is expected to maintain a relatively restrained rate of interest rate cuts throughout the year; on the 15th local time, the Japanese Cabinet Office released the preliminary GDP value for the fourth quarter of 2023, with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate decrease of 0.4%, lower than the market It is expected that, looking forward to 2024, due to the slowdown in the recovery of overseas economies, the supporting role of exports in the Japanese economy may gradually weaken. Whether domestic demand can be improved also depends on the speed of inflation and wage growth; on the 15th local time, The European Commission has lowered its 2024 Eurozone GDP forecast from 1.2% to 0.8%. Based on the current economic and inflation conditions in Europe, it is expected that the Eurozone will have a higher probability of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. It is recommended to pay close attention to changes in data. Focus next week: China’s one-year and five-year LPR in February (Tuesday); Japan’s January merchandise trade account, Eurozone’s February consumer confidence index (Wednesday); France’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023, Germany, Britain, France, Europe and the United States Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI in February, Eurozone Harmonized CPI in January, Annualized Total Existing Home Sales in the United States in January (Thursday); Germany’s Seasonally Adjusted GDP Quarterly Rate in the Fourth Quarter of 2023, February IFO Business Climate Index (Friday). Risk warning: The domestic economic recovery is less than expected, and the overseas economy is declining more than expected.\", 'authorid': UUID('d3389991-b216-5572-82e3-6396ad6aed04'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8604831025004387, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'D06A4CLT00UBTJ9TD0SU5IEQ3BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:18:41 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'D06A4CLT00UBTJ9TD0SU5IEQ3BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5835b424-f1f5-5a52-956a-59e45536a2bb'), 'title': 'Beijing Stock Exchange Weekly Report: The \"Action Plan\" clarifies high-quality development goals, and 17 companies issued performance announcements', 'author': 'Fan Xiangxiang', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7QdIpvOcNfve9wXCfxVWo4U=', 'researcher': '范想想', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000280036'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7QdIpvOcNfve9wXCfxVWo4U=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622384599_1.pdf?1708339021000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622384599_1.pdf?1708339021000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Beijing Stock Exchange Weekly Report: The \"Action Plan\" clarifies high-quality development goals, and 17 companies issued performance announcements', 'originalAuthor': '范想想', 'originalContent': '核心观点北证50本周涨幅为6.21%，单日成交额回归百亿水平。本周北交所单日成交额逐步回归百亿水平，日均成交额为92.68亿元，较上周提升近5%。但受春节假期影响，本周北交所仅有4个交易日，整体成交额为371亿元，较上周的443亿元下滑16.33%；成交量为35.14亿股，较上周38.09亿股下降7.74%。对比其他板块，北交所仍保持较高市场热度，本周换手率高达33.35%。244家上市公司中，本周有187家周涨幅为正，涨幅最大的是克莱特（+29.31%），其次是大唐药业（+25.63%）、鹿得医疗（+22.74%）、开特股份（+22.18%）等，跌幅最大的是海昇药业（-25.83%）。从行业来看，本周北交所多数行业上涨，建筑材料、国防科工以及通信行业涨幅领先，社会服务行业跌幅较大。北交所“年报季”将至，本周17家上市公司发布业绩快报或业绩预告。6家公司发布业绩预告，其中豪声电子预期净利润1.6亿元（+144.76%）；科强股份预期净利润0.75亿元（+44.28%）；禾昌聚合预期净利润1.28亿元（+40.14%）；格利尔预期净利润0.24亿元（-65.20%）；慧为智能预期净利润0.55亿元（-81.25%）；同辉信息预期净利润-1.2亿元（-169.54%）。11家公司发布了业绩快报，其中同享科技净利润1.2亿元（+138.64%）；常辅股份净利润预计为0.36亿元（+44.12%）；富士达净利润1.46亿元（+2.34%）；天宏锂电净利润0.11亿元（-63.88%）；朱老六净利润预计为0.22亿元（-64.71%）；中科美菱净利润0.16亿元（-69.33%）；华信永道净利润0.08亿元（-76%）；昆工科技净利润0.05亿元（-89.08%）；大禹生物净利润为-0.02亿元（-110.50%）；安达科技净利润-6.6亿元（-181.38%）；志晟信息归母净利润为-0.71亿元（-266.17%）。本周北交所关联的主题基金与指数基金均正增长。本周北证50涨幅为6.68%，较上周有所回升。主题基金中，华夏北交所创新中小企业精选两年定开混合发起式涨幅最大（+10.36%），强于北证50整体表现。本周北交所指数基金产品整体表现弱于主题基金，其中广发北证50成份指数C涨幅最大，为6.66%。北交所整体市盈率回升至20倍左右。截至2024年2月8日收盘，北证A股的市盈率为20倍，较上周19倍市盈率有小幅回升，科创板公司和创业板公司市盈率也均有小幅回升，分别30倍和26倍。分行业看北交所上市公司的市盈率，农林牧渔行业平均市盈率仍保持最高，交通运输与传媒行业紧随其后；而市盈率相对较低的行业是环保、建筑装饰和电子行业。投资建议：北交所交易热度持续较高，新股发行稳步推进，展望后市，我们认为板块整体有望震荡上行。2024年，对于北交所板块投资，建议重点关注公司基本面良好，在募投项目顺利推进中具备高成长性的公司，以及公司经营稳健，持续盈利能力佳的高股息率公司。风险提示：政策支持力度低于预期的风险，技术迭代较快的风险，市场竞争加剧的风险。', 'content': 'The core view is that the BSE 50 rose by 6.21% this week, and the single-day turnover returned to the 10 billion level. This week, the single-day turnover of the North Exchange gradually returned to the 10 billion level, with the average daily turnover of 9.268 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 5% from last week. However, due to the Spring Festival holiday, there were only 4 trading days on the North Exchange this week. The overall transaction volume was 37.1 billion yuan, down 16.33% from last week\\'s 44.3 billion yuan; the trading volume was 3.514 billion shares, compared with 3.809 billion shares last week. down 7.74%. Compared with other sectors, the North Exchange still maintains high market popularity, with a turnover rate as high as 33.35% this week. Among the 244 listed companies, 187 had positive weekly gains this week, with the largest increase being Clete (+29.31%), followed by Datang Pharmaceutical (+25.63%), Lude Medical (+22.74%), and Kaite Shares (+22.18%), etc., the biggest decliner was Haisheng Pharmaceutical (-25.83%). From an industry perspective, most industries on the Beijing Stock Exchange rose this week, with the building materials, national defense science and industry, and communications industries leading the way, while the social services industry suffered a larger decline. The \"annual report season\" of the Beijing Stock Exchange is approaching, and 17 listed companies released performance reports or performance forecasts this week. Six companies released performance forecasts, including Haosheng Electronics\\' expected net profit of 160 million yuan (+144.76%); Keqiang\\'s expected net profit of 75 million yuan (+44.28%); Hechang Polymer\\'s expected net profit of 128 million yuan (+4014 %); Greer\\'s expected net profit is 24 million yuan (-65.20%); Huiwei Intelligence\\'s expected net profit is 55 million yuan (-81.25%); Tonghui Information\\'s expected net profit is -120 million yuan (-169.54%). 11 companies released performance reports, among which Sharing Technology’s net profit was 120 million yuan (+138.64%); Changfu Co., Ltd.’s net profit was expected to be 36 million yuan (+44.12%); Fujitec’s net profit was 146 million yuan (+2.34%) ); Tianhong Lithium Battery’s net profit is 11 million yuan (-63.88%); Zhu Laoliu’s net profit is expected to be 22 million yuan (-64.71%); Zhongke Meiling’s net profit is 16 million yuan (-69.33%); Watson & Co. Net profit was 08 million yuan (-76%); Kunming Technology\\'s net profit was 05 million yuan (-89.08%); Dayu Biotech\\'s net profit was -02 million yuan (-110.50%); Anda Technology\\'s net profit was -660 million yuan ( -181.38%); Zhisheng Information’s net profit attributable to the parent company was -71 million yuan (-266.17%). This week, both thematic funds and index funds associated with the North Exchange showed positive growth. This week, the BSE 50 rose by 6.68%, an increase from last week. Among the theme funds, China Securities Exchange\\'s innovative small and medium-sized enterprises selected two-year fixed-open hybrid launch had the largest increase (+10.36%), which was stronger than the overall performance of the Beijing Securities 50. This week, the overall performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange index fund products was weaker than that of the theme funds. Among them, the Guangfa North Securities 50 Component Index C had the largest increase, at 6.66%. The overall price-to-earnings ratio of the Beijing Stock Exchange has rebounded to around 20 times. As of the close of trading on February 8, 2024, the price-to-earnings ratio of BSE A shares was 20 times, a slight rebound from last week\\'s 19 times price-to-earnings ratio. The price-to-earnings ratios of companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and GEM companies also rebounded slightly, at 30 times and 26 times respectively. . Looking at the P/E ratios of companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange by industry, the average P/E ratio of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry remains the highest, followed by the transportation and media industries; while industries with relatively low P/E ratios are environmental protection, construction decoration and electronics industries. Investment advice: The trading enthusiasm of the Beijing Stock Exchange continues to be high, and the issuance of new shares is advancing steadily. Looking into the market outlook, we believe that the overall sector is expected to fluctuate upward. In 2024, for investment in the Beijing Stock Exchange sector, it is recommended to focus on companies with good company fundamentals and high growth potential in the smooth progress of fundraising projects, as well as high dividend yield companies with stable company operations and good sustained profitability. Risk warning: The risk of policy support being lower than expected, the risk of rapid technological iteration, and the risk of intensified market competition.', 'authorid': UUID('4afdf020-b26b-5666-badd-296392116967'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9467880297452211, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'SJJP06A2VQ5SB8EQO2V9PAQR1RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:19:17 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'SJJP06A2VQ5SB8EQO2V9PAQR1RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "https://reportapi.eastmoney.com/report/jg?cb=datatable8544623&pageSize=100&beginTime=2023-12-16&endTime=2024-03-15&pageNo=6&qType=3\n", - "{'id': UUID('1a0f195d-cf61-5070-b69f-4bbe354cb3dd'), 'title': 'Macro Interest Rate Chart 173: Market revise expectations of Fed rate cut', 'author': 'Xu Wenyu', 'orgName': '华泰期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80055521', 'orgSName': '华泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7T/webiFvD9MOJTANeQRJ2c=', 'researcher': '徐闻宇', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000194620'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7T/webiFvD9MOJTANeQRJ2c=', 'site': 'Huatai Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622384041_1.pdf?1708337573000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622384041_1.pdf?1708337573000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Interest Rate Chart 173: Market revise expectations of Fed rate cut', 'originalAuthor': '徐闻宇', 'originalContent': '春节假日，除了反弹的假期经济，还有调降的美国降息。随着金融委人士调整的进行，国内经济预期边际上的政策修复拐点逐渐显现。这点和迟迟不肯降息的技术性衰退欧洲形成强烈对比。虽然外部压力不小，但是我们认为节后可以关注经济预期的逐渐修复。核心观点市场分析国内：等待预期的进一步改善。1）货币政策：节前一周公开市场净回笼3740亿元；央行货币政策报告指出准确把握货币信贷供需规律和新特点。2）宏观政策：多地省部级干部兼任金融委主任；深圳楼市限购政策放松；房地产融资项目“白名单”已发放贷款近200亿元；教育部发布《校外培训管理条例（征求意见稿）》。3）经济数据：1月财新服务业PMI微降至52.7；1月新增社融6.5万亿，新增人民币贷款4.92万亿，M2增速8.7%；1月CPI同比下降0.8%，PPI同比下降2.5%；1月黄金储备增加32万盎司，外汇储备下降187亿美元；1月汽车产销同比增长51.2%和47.9%。4）风险因素：中美经济工作组举行第三次会议，何立峰会见美副财长尚博，王毅会见美国国务卿布林肯；12月日本美债持仓创2022年8月以来新高，中国连续七个月美债持仓减少后，连续两个月增长。海外：降息预期的一次修正。1）货币政策：美联储主席鲍威尔称将谨慎降息；印度央行维持利率不变，警告通胀仍高于目标。2）宏观政策：SEC新规要求定期交易美国国债的对冲基金和自营交易公司注册为交易商。3）美国数据：1月ISM服务业指数上升至53.4，1月零售销售环比跌0.8%；四季度核心CPI修正后年化增幅维持在3.3%不变；1月CPI同比增3.1%，核心CPI同比增3.9%；1月PPI同比涨0.9%，核心PPI同比涨2%；消费者未来三年中期通胀预期2.35%，创下至少2013年以来的最低。4）非美数据：日本、英国GDP连续两个季度收缩，陷入“技术性衰退”；欧元区12月PPI同比跌10.6%，1月欧元政府发行2000亿欧元债券，创历史同期新高。5）风险因素：华尔街讨论“1995重演”——降息周期，美国经济仍具韧性；美国的监管机构正在关注非银行抵押贷款机构带来的风险，关注那些商业地产贷款组合超过其总资本三倍的银行；日元跌破150；朝鲜废除与韩国所有经济领域合作协议。策略持有VXM24，做陡收益率曲线（+2×TS-1×T）风险地缘冲突升级，疫情风险升级，欧洲债务风险', 'content': 'During the Spring Festival holiday, in addition to the rebound in the holiday economy, there was also a reduction in U.S. interest rates. As the financial committee members adjust, the inflection point for policy restoration on the margins of domestic economic expectations gradually appears. This is in sharp contrast to Europe, which is in technical recession and has been reluctant to cut interest rates. Although there is considerable external pressure, we believe that we can focus on the gradual recovery of economic expectations after the holiday. Core point of view market analysis domestic: waiting for expected further improvement. 1) Monetary policy: A net withdrawal of 374 billion yuan was made from the open market in the week before the holiday; the central bank’s monetary policy report pointed out that the laws and new characteristics of money and credit supply and demand should be accurately grasped. 2) Macroeconomic policies: Provincial and ministerial-level cadres in many places also serve as directors of financial committees; the Shenzhen property market’s purchase restriction policy has been relaxed; the “white list” of real estate financing projects has issued loans of nearly 20 billion yuan; the Ministry of Education issued the “Off-campus Training Management Regulations (Draft for Comments)” 》. 3) Economic data: Caixin service industry PMI dropped slightly to 52.7 in January; new social financing in January was 6.5 trillion, new RMB loans were 4.92 trillion, M2 growth was 8.7%; CPI in January fell by 0.8% year-on-year, and PPI A year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; gold reserves increased by 320,000 ounces in January, and foreign exchange reserves decreased by US$18.7 billion; automobile production and sales in January increased by 51.2% and 47.9% year-on-year. 4) Risk factors: The China-U.S. Economic Working Group held its third meeting, He Lifeng met with U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Jean-Claude Sham, and Wang Yi met with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken; Japan’s U.S. debt holdings hit a new high since August 2022 in December, and China U.S. Treasury holdings increased for two consecutive months after declining for seven consecutive months. Overseas: A revision in interest rate cut expectations. 1) Monetary policy: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said it would cut interest rates cautiously; the Reserve Bank of India kept interest rates unchanged and warned that inflation is still above the target. 2) Macro policy: The SEC’s new regulations require hedge funds and proprietary trading companies that regularly trade U.S. Treasury bonds to register as traders. 3) U.S. data: The ISM service index rose to 53.4 in January, and retail sales fell 0.8% month-on-month in January; the revised annualized growth rate of core CPI in the fourth quarter remained unchanged at 3.3%; CPI in January increased by 3.1% year-on-year, and core CPI It increased by 3.9% year-on-year; PPI in January rose by 0.9% year-on-year, and core PPI rose by 2% year-on-year; consumers\\' mid-term inflation expectations for the next three years are 2.35%, the lowest since at least 2013. 4) Non-U.S. data: The GDP of Japan and the United Kingdom contracted for two consecutive quarters and fell into a \"technical recession\"; the PPI in the Eurozone fell 10.6% year-on-year in December, and the Euro government issued 200 billion euros in bonds in January, a record high for the same period in history. 5) Risk factors: Wall Street is discussing a \"1995 repeat\" - the interest rate cut cycle, and the U.S. economy is still resilient; U.S. regulators are paying attention to the risks posed by non-bank mortgage lenders, focusing on those commercial real estate loan portfolios that exceed three times their total capital banks; the yen fell below 150; North Korea abolished cooperation agreements with South Korea in all economic fields. The strategy holds VXM24, steepening the yield curve (+2×TS-1×T) risks escalating geopolitical conflicts, escalating epidemic risks, and European debt risks', 'authorid': UUID('ea5b1c8b-2069-5763-b3d4-70c9ba8cbb24'), 'sentimentScore': -0.12843996286392212, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'G7QERPU9AD0RSGC85S2T15FKRFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:19:42 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'G7QERPU9AD0RSGC85S2T15FKRFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e1567fca-5404-590a-95e5-5cfaf633cc74'), 'title': 'Comments on financial data in January: New credit increased year-on-year in January', 'author': 'Chen Li', 'orgName': '川财证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000204', 'orgSName': '川财证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7VlVs7eDvk7igCQvSV6mUO8=', 'researcher': '陈雳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000174919'], 'count': 13, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7VlVs7eDvk7igCQvSV6mUO8=', 'site': 'Chuancai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '川财证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622383570_1.pdf?1708336564000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622383570_1.pdf?1708336564000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on financial data in January: New credit increased year-on-year in January', 'originalAuthor': '陈雳', 'originalContent': '事件2月9日,央行公布2024年1月份金融数据，1月人民币贷款新增4.92万亿元、同比多增162亿元；新增社融6.5万亿元、同比多增5061亿元，1月末社融存量增速9.5%、持平前值；1月末M2同比增长8.7%，比上月末下降1.0个百分点，M1同比增长5.9%，比上月末提高4.6个百分点。（中国人民银行）点评新增社融同比多增。新增社融6.5万亿元，同比多增5061亿元；1月末社融存量增速9.5%，持平前值。新增社融表现优于季节性，主要受益于企业债券、表外融资大幅同比多增。企业债券同比多增3197亿元，与去年同期基数较低有关；表外融资同比多增2523亿元，主要受到未贴现银行承兑汇票同比增幅较大影响。中央经济工作会议定调，货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效，保持社融、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配。后市方面，货币政策仍将保持稳健宽松的基调，稳增长政策也将继续为实体经济保驾护航，促进社融进一步回暖。1月新增信贷同比多增，居民贷款同比多增、企业贷款同比少增。1月人民币贷款新增4.92万亿元，同比多增162亿元，信贷结构有所改善，建议关注反映信贷质量的企业中长贷增速拐点。分部门来看，居民短期贷款同比多增3187亿元，显著优于季节性，一定程度上受益于多家银行降低消费贷利率；居民中长期贷款同比多增4041亿元，可能受益于二手房销售有所回暖。企业部门来看，企业短期贷款同比少增500亿元；中长期贷款同比少增1900亿元，表现优于季节性，少增主要受到去年同期基数较高影响。后市方面��三大工程建设、去年增发万亿国债的相关配套融资，有望带动企业中长贷同比多增。M1增速大幅提高，M2增速显著回落。1月末M1同比增长5.9%，比上月末提高4.6个百分点，主要受到春节时间错位影响，企业春节期间发奖金、将大量企业活期存款转为居民存款，使得去年1月同期M1增速较低。M2同比增长8.7%，较前值下降1.0个百分点，与去年同期信贷扩张、居民理财向存款转化导致的高基数有关。中央金融工作会议指出，要着力营造良好的货币金融环境，切实加强对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的优质金融服务。后市方面，随着金融资源支持科技创新、先进制造、绿色发展和中小微企业的力度加大，实体经济有望逐渐恢复活力，带动资金活化度提高。风险提示：经济复苏不及预期、房地产下行拖累过大、货币政策变化。', 'content': \"On February 9, the central bank announced financial data for January 2024. In January, RMB loans increased by 4.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.2 billion yuan year-on-year; new social financing increased by 6.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 506.1 billion yuan year-on-year, 1 At the end of the month, the stock of social financing increased by 9.5%, the same as the previous value; at the end of January, M2 increased by 8.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points from the end of the previous month, and M1 increased by 5.9% year-on-year, an increase of 4.6 percentage points from the end of the previous month. (People's Bank of China) Dianping's new social financing increased year-on-year. New social financing increased by 6.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 506.1 billion yuan year-on-year; the stock of social financing at the end of January increased by 9.5%, the same as the previous value. The performance of new social financing was better than seasonal, mainly benefiting from the substantial year-on-year increase in corporate bonds and off-balance sheet financing. Corporate bonds increased by 319.7 billion yuan year-on-year, which was related to the low base in the same period last year; off-balance sheet financing increased by 252.3 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly affected by the large year-on-year increase in undiscounted bank acceptance bills. The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone that monetary policy should be flexible, appropriate, precise and effective, and keep social financing and money supply in line with the expected goals of economic growth and price levels. In terms of market outlook, monetary policy will remain prudent and loose, and growth-stabilizing policies will continue to protect the real economy and promote further recovery in social financing. In January, new credit increased year-on-year, household loans increased year-on-year, and corporate loans increased less than the same period last year. In January, RMB loans increased by 4.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.2 billion yuan year-on-year. The credit structure has improved. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point in the growth rate of corporate medium and long-term loans that reflects credit quality. In terms of sectors, short-term loans to residents increased by 318.7 billion yuan year-on-year, which was significantly better than seasonal, benefiting to a certain extent from the reduction of consumer loan interest rates by many banks; medium- and long-term loans to residents increased by 404.1 billion yuan year-on-year, which may benefit from second-hand housing Sales have picked up. Looking at the corporate sector, short-term corporate loans increased by 50 billion yuan year-on-year; medium- and long-term loans decreased by 190 billion yuan year-on-year. The performance was better than seasonal. The lack of growth was mainly affected by the higher base in the same period last year. In terms of market outlook, the construction of three major projects and related supporting financing from the issuance of trillions of treasury bonds last year are expected to drive a year-on-year increase in medium and long-term corporate loans. The growth rate of M1 increased significantly, while the growth rate of M2 dropped significantly. At the end of January, M1 increased by 5.9% year-on-year, 4.6 percentage points higher than the end of last month. This was mainly affected by the time misalignment of the Spring Festival. Companies issued bonuses during the Spring Festival and converted a large number of corporate demand deposits into resident deposits, resulting in a low growth rate of M1 in the same period in January last year. M2 increased by 8.7% year-on-year, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous value, which was related to the high base caused by credit expansion in the same period last year and the conversion of residents' financial management to deposits. The Central Financial Work Conference pointed out that efforts should be made to create a good monetary and financial environment and effectively strengthen high-quality financial services for major strategies, key areas and weak links. In terms of the market outlook, as financial resources increase their efforts to support technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, green development and small, medium and micro enterprises, the real economy is expected to gradually regain its vitality, leading to increased capital activation. Risk warning: Economic recovery is less than expected, the real estate downturn is too large, and monetary policy changes.\", 'authorid': UUID('267e0858-7a39-5196-be76-43e80fed6dc6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.927709499374032, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '46K9PB7NSMGHHGI8N0RDACI7CBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:19:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '46K9PB7NSMGHHGI8N0RDACI7CBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a58c01c9-b29f-523d-91db-cc44be264c08'), 'title': 'Macro in-depth report: Overseas turmoil, domestic consumption is high and prices are stable - Spring Festival news at home and abroad', 'author': 'He Ning, Chen Ce, Pan Weizhen', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7S9g7hEenjNaSfU4HHLxvFk=', 'researcher': '何宁,陈策,潘纬桢', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332', '11000443244', '11000416632'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7S9g7hEenjNaSfU4HHLxvFk=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622382170_1.pdf?1708335582000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622382170_1.pdf?1708335582000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro in-depth report: Overseas turmoil, domestic consumption is high and prices are stable - Spring Festival news at home and abroad', 'originalAuthor': '何宁,陈策,潘纬桢', 'originalContent': '全球宏观要闻：巴以冲突战火仍频，特朗普初选再赢一州以色列军队密集轰炸加沙南部，巴以冲突战火仍频。当地时间2月11日，以色列军队密集轰炸加沙地带南部，造成至少68人死亡。新一轮冲突累计已造成超过2.81万人死亡，约6.7万人受伤。目前来看，巴以双方相互之间仍较为敌视。特朗普赢下内华达州党内初选，但仍面临诸多司法问题。当地时间2月8日，特朗普在共和党内华达州党团会议中获胜，但仍面临司法问题。拜登在民主党内的初选亦进展顺利，2024年美国总统大选大概率仍是拜登与特朗普“再决雌雄”。美参议院通过新一轮援乌法案。当地时间2月13日，美国参议院通过一项军事援助法案，向乌克兰提供600亿美元，不过该法案还需要经过众议院审核。全球经济：美国通胀韧性较强，日本经济意外萎缩，主要央行表态不一美国1月CPI超出预期，通胀下行之路“崎岖颠簸”。美国1月CPI同比增加3.1%，核心CPI同比增速录得3.9%，均超过市场预期。结构上来看，核心服务仍是当前通胀维持韧性的最关键因素。往后看，美国通胀下行之路或较为“崎岖颠簸”，美联储降息时点最快或在6月份，市场预期或将面临较大幅度调整。日本2023年四季度GDP环比继续负增，陷入“技术性衰退”。2023年4季度日本GDP同比增加1.0%，环比增速录得-0.1%，连续两个季度环比负增长，陷入“技术性衰退”中。不过从名义GDP以及PMI等高频指标来看，日本经济后续有望得到改善。但日央行货币政策在短期内或难出现较大幅度变动。美联储、欧央行表态仍然较鹰，日央行保持观望。美联储方面，其内部对于通胀水平仍较为关注，整体表态仍较为鹰派。欧央行方面，其行长拉加德表示，绝不能冒险仓促降息，从而毁掉抗击通胀的进展。日本央行表示鉴于当前的经济前景，即使负利率政策结束后，金融状况也可能暂时维持宽松。国内政策：信贷新特点更重“质”，国内经济：金融数据“开门红”(1)央行发布2023年四季度货币政策执行报告。货币端，延续稳中有松，我们判断降准后可能还有降息，以及做好对财政发债的配合，保持货币市场利率平稳。信用端，准确把握货币信贷供需规律和新特点，更重“质”而非“量”。(2)地方两会的政策信号：多省下调2024年GDP增长目标，失业率与物价目标基本持平，判断全国经济增速目标或为5%；重大项目数量超4万个，“三大工程”将成为有力支撑；推动制造业产业升级，传统、新兴、未来产业并举；提振大宗与新型消费；发展外贸新动能。(3)建立城市房地产融资协调机制��关工作取得积极进展。多数城市已提出房地产项目“白名单”并推送给商业银行，商业银行积极响应，有效对接项目名单，已提供一批新增融资和贷款展期，满足不同房地产项目合理融资需求。(4)1月社融数据：信贷更注重均衡节奏。剔除春节错月效应和监管因素，1月信贷基本达成了开门红。居民贷款稳定投放，企业贷款有充足项目支撑且结构亮眼，票据冲量现象减弱。向后看，前期宽货币宽财政效果将逐步显现，企业中长贷有一定韧性，居民需求回暖的持续性仍待观察。(5)通胀数据：核心CPI延续超季节性修复，物价上行通道或已开启。1月CPI同比降幅扩大主因春节错位，核心CPI连续2个月环比超季节性，反映服务与实物消费需求修复趋势延续。往后看，随着需求内生修复叠加三大工程推进，实物工作量增加，或将提振商品及相关原材料消费需求，物价上行通道或已开启。春节高频跟踪：消费修复“量”超预期、“价”待改善(1)消费场景：拆分收入、人次、人均三要素来看，春节国内旅游约为2019年的108%、119%、90%；观影约为2019年同期的126%、113%、110%；免税约为2023年同期的142%、171%、83%。(2)人流明显超越2019年。全社会跨区域流动量为2019年同期的113%，百度地图迁徙指数表明全国和劳务输出大市复工进度快于历年。(3)地产方面，最近两周（2月2日至2月15日），全国30大中城市商品房成交面积平均值较上两周同环比均下降；1月上半月二手房量价均呈下行趋势。(4)农产品方面，节假日消费需求旺盛提振猪肉等价格。资产：全球股市大多震荡或小幅上涨，原油价格上涨，债券收益率上行。风险提示：国内政策不及预期，俄乌冲突反复超预期，美国经济超预期衰退。', 'content': 'Global Macro News: The conflict between Palestine and Israel is still raging, and Trump won another state in the primary election. The Israeli army intensively bombed southern Gaza. The conflict between Palestine and Israel is still raging. On February 11, local time, the Israeli army intensively bombed the southern Gaza Strip, killing at least 68 people. The new round of conflicts has caused more than 28,100 deaths and about 67,000 injuries. At present, Palestine and Israel are still relatively hostile to each other. Trump won the Nevada party primary, but still faces many judicial issues. On February 8, local time, Trump won the Republican Nevada caucus, but still faced judicial issues. Biden\\'s primaries within the Democratic Party are also progressing smoothly, and the 2024 U.S. presidential election will most likely still be a \"rematch\" between Biden and Trump. The U.S. Senate passed a new round of aid bill to Ukraine. On February 13, local time, the U.S. Senate passed a military assistance bill to provide $60 billion to Ukraine, but the bill still needs to be reviewed by the House of Representatives. Global Economy: U.S. inflation is relatively resilient, Japan’s economy unexpectedly shrank, major central banks expressed mixed opinions, U.S. CPI in January exceeded expectations, and the path to downward inflation is “bumpy.” The U.S. CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year in January, and the core CPI growth rate recorded 3.9% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations. From a structural point of view, core services are still the most critical factor in maintaining the resilience of current inflation. Looking forward, the downward path of U.S. inflation may be bumpy. The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates as soon as June, and market expectations may face significant adjustments. Japan\\'s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 will continue to show negative growth from the previous quarter and fall into a \"technical recession.\" In the fourth quarter of 2023, Japan\\'s GDP increased by 1.0% year-on-year, and the quarter-on-quarter growth rate recorded -0.1%. It has experienced negative quarter-on-quarter growth for two consecutive quarters, falling into a \"technical recession.\" However, judging from high-frequency indicators such as nominal GDP and PMI, the Japanese economy is expected to improve in the future. However, it may be difficult for the Bank of Japan\\'s monetary policy to undergo major changes in the short term. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank remained hawkish in their stances, while the Bank of Japan remained on the sidelines. As for the Federal Reserve, it is still concerned about the level of inflation internally, and its overall stance is still relatively hawkish. As for the European Central Bank, its President Christine Lagarde said that she must not take the risk of hastily cutting interest rates, thereby destroying progress in the fight against inflation. The Bank of Japan said that given the current economic outlook, financial conditions are likely to remain loose for the time being even after the negative interest rate policy ends. Domestic policy: the new characteristics of credit focus more on \"quality\", domestic economy: financial data has a \"good start\" (1) The central bank released the monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2023. On the monetary side, it continues to be stable with some easing. We judge that interest rates may be cut after the RRR cut, and we must cooperate with fiscal bond issuance to keep money market interest rates stable. On the credit side, we must accurately grasp the laws and new characteristics of money and credit supply and demand, and put more emphasis on “quality” rather than “quantity”. (2) Policy signals from the local two sessions: many provinces have lowered their 2024 GDP growth targets, the unemployment rate and price targets are basically the same, and the national economic growth target is judged to be 5%; the number of major projects exceeds 40,000, and the \"three major projects\" It will become a strong support; promote the upgrading of the manufacturing industry and develop traditional, emerging and future industries simultaneously; boost bulk and new consumption; and develop new momentum for foreign trade. (3) Positive progress has been made in establishing an urban real estate financing coordination mechanism. Most cities have proposed a \"white list\" of real estate projects and sent them to commercial banks. Commercial banks have responded positively, effectively linked the project lists, and have provided a batch of new financing and loan extensions to meet the reasonable financing needs of different real estate projects. (4) Social finance data in January: Credit pays more attention to a balanced rhythm. Excluding the effect of the Spring Festival and regulatory factors, credit basically got off to a good start in January. Residential loans are being issued stably, corporate loans are supported by sufficient projects and have a bright structure, and the momentum of bills has weakened. Looking backward, the effects of the early monetary easing and fiscal easing will gradually emerge, medium and long-term corporate loans have certain resilience, and the sustainability of the recovery in residents\\' demand remains to be seen. (5) Inflation data: Core CPI continues its super-seasonal recovery, and the upward price channel may have opened. The year-on-year decrease in CPI in January was mainly due to the misalignment of the Spring Festival. The core CPI exceeded the seasonality for two consecutive months, reflecting the continuation of the recovery trend of demand for services and physical goods. Looking forward, with the advancement of the three major projects of endogenous demand restoration and the increase in physical workload, consumption demand for commodities and related raw materials may be boosted, and the upward channel for prices may have been opened. High-frequency tracking during the Spring Festival: The \"volume\" of consumption recovery exceeds expectations, and the \"price\" needs to be improved (1) Consumption scenario: Looking at the three elements of income, person-times, and per capita, domestic tourism during the Spring Festival is about 108%, 119%, and 119% of that in 2019. 90%; movie viewing is approximately 126%, 113%, and 110% of the same period in 2019; tax exemption is approximately 142%, 171%, and 83% of the same period in 2023. (2) The flow of people significantly exceeded that of 2019. The cross-regional mobility of the whole society is 113% of the same period in 2019. The Baidu Map Migration Index shows that the resumption of work nationwide and in major labor export cities is progressing faster than in previous years. (3) In terms of real estate, in the past two weeks (February 2 to February 15), the average transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bcommercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities across the country has decreased compared with the previous two weeks; in the first half of January, the volume and price of second-hand houses have declined. Downtrend. (4) In terms of agricultural products, strong consumer demand during holidays boosts the prices of pork and other products. Assets: Global stock markets were mostly volatile or slightly higher, crude oil prices rose, and bond yields rose. Risk warning: Domestic policies have fallen short of expectations, conflicts between Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly exceeded expectations, and the U.S. economy has declined beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('eca4a0c5-1071-54e0-893b-0a7358f239d1'), 'sentimentScore': -0.736925020813942, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '2LFJ73KC1DIF6J8HRRA9DRBBIJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:19:49 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '2LFJ73KC1DIF6J8HRRA9DRBBIJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('434c68eb-96c8-53d5-bade-ed07effdfc14'), 'title': 'Biweekly report February 5-February 18, 2024: The economy has bottomed out and shows signs of recovery', 'author': 'Fu Yang,Liu Qingdong,Liu Qian', 'orgName': '中航证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000197', 'orgSName': '中航证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7VDdYIX5A3h7qBO+1C9ItIc=', 'researcher': '符旸,刘庆东,刘倩', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177393', '11000268232', '11000424332'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7VDdYIX5A3h7qBO+1C9ItIc=', 'site': 'AVIC Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中航证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622381998_1.pdf?1708351174000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622381998_1.pdf?1708351174000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Biweekly report February 5-February 18, 2024: The economy has bottomed out and shows signs of recovery', 'originalAuthor': '符旸,刘庆东,刘倩', 'originalContent': '【内容摘要】春节假期错位叠加居民消费修复力度弱，CPI同比跌幅扩大2024年1月CPI环比录得+0.3%，较上月-0.5PCTS，剔除春节假期主要在1月的2017、2020和2023年后，较近10年均值低0.47PCTS。2024年1月核心CPI环比录得+0.3%，较上月-0.1PCTS，剔除春节假期主要在1月的年份后，与近10年同月环比均值相同，显示扣除价格波动较大的食品项和能源项后，1月核心CPI环比符合季节性规律。2024年1月CPI同比为-0.8%,较上月-0.5PCTS，低于市场预期。分食品和非食品看，2024年1月食品项和非食品项CPI同比分别-5.9%和+0.4%，分别较上月-2.2PCTS和-0.1PCTS。分8大类商品看，2024年1月食品烟酒项同比降幅较去年12月加深是1月CPI同比降幅加大的主要原因，细项来看，主要是鲜菜和鲜果价格同比降幅加深，受去年春节在1月的错位因素影响较大。去除食品和能源后，2024年1月核心CPI同比为+0.4%，较去年12月-0.2PCTS。今年1月核心CPI和CPI同比走低均在一定程度上受到去年春节假期在1月的春节错位因素影响，另一方面，CPI同比降幅超市场预期，也反映出当前居民消费的修复仍然低于市场预期。据飞猪、马蜂窝大数据、途牛以及同程等多个平台数据显示，今年春节居民旅游消费数据增长明显，考虑到去年上半年猪肉和原油价格基数走低，结合目前消费复苏的趋势，预计今年上半年CPI同比有望整体上行。2024年1月，PPI同比-2.5%，较上月+0.2PCTS，环比为-0.2%，较上月+0.1PCTS。2024年1月PPIRM同比-3.4%，较上月+0.4PCTS，环比为-0.2%，与上月持平。从工业子行业角度，2024年1月，30个子行业中，有10个子行业PPI环比为正，与去年12月持平。2024年1月，50种生产资料中有18种价格环比上行，与去年12月相同。去年上半年工业品价格基数下降，结合当前工业的恢复趋势，预计今年上半年PPI同比降幅将逐渐走低。私人部门融资需求接棒政府债，金融数据改善明显2024年1月社会融资规模增量为6.5万亿元（前值1.94万亿元），高于市场预期的5.8万亿元。2024年1月新增社融同比多增5044亿元，连续第6个月同比多增。2024年1月社融存量增速+9.5%，前值+9.5%，高于市场预期的+9.4%。结构上，2024年1月社融结构改善明显，由此前的政府债拉动变为社会融资需求拉动，具体来说：实体贷款（社融口径新增人民币贷款）新增4.84万亿元，同比少增914亿元，主因去年1月在“开年冲量+防控政策调整”双重因素下基数较高，实际今年1月实体贷款明显高于除去年外的近5年同月值，实体融资需求并不弱；表外的新增未贴现银行承兑汇票同比多增2672亿元，占当月社融同比多增的53%，结合1月票据融资同比多减5606亿元以及1月票据利率走高，推测表外未贴现票据多增主要系表内融资额度偏紧的外溢效应；企业债券融资同比多增3197亿元，占当月社融同比多增的63.3%，我们认为主要系股市不振、表内信贷偏紧和信用债利率下降综合作用下，企业更多地通过发行债券实现资金诉求；政府债券同比少增1193亿元，主要系PSL发行+1万亿特别国债资金到位下，专项债发行必要性下降，发行节奏有所放缓。', 'content': '[Abstract] The Spring Festival holiday is misaligned and residents’ consumption is weak in recovery, and the year-on-year decline in CPI expands. The CPI in January 2024 recorded +0.3% month-on-month, -0.5 PCTS compared with the previous month. Excluding the Spring Festival holiday, it mainly fell in January 2017, 2020 and 2023. After the year, it will be 0.47PCTS lower than the average of the past 10 years. The core CPI in January 2024 recorded +0.3% month-on-month, which was -0.1PCTS compared with the previous month. Excluding the years when the Spring Festival holiday mainly falls in January, it was the same as the month-on-month average for the same month in the past 10 years, showing that excluding food items with large price fluctuations and After the energy item, the core CPI in January was in line with seasonal patterns. The CPI in January 2024 was -0.8% year-on-year, -0.5 PCTS compared with the previous month, which was lower than market expectations. Looking at food and non-food items, the CPI for food items and non-food items in January 2024 was -5.9% and +0.4% respectively year-on-year, which was -2.2PCTS and -0.1PCTS respectively compared with the previous month. Divided into 8 major categories of commodities, the year-on-year decline in food, tobacco and alcohol items in January 2024 was deeper than that in December last year, which was the main reason for the larger year-on-year decline in CPI in January. Looking at the detailed items, it was mainly due to the deepening year-on-year decline in the prices of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits. It was greatly affected by the dislocation factor of last year’s Spring Festival in January. After excluding food and energy, the core CPI in January 2024 was +0.4% year-on-year, -0.2 PCTS compared with December last year. The year-on-year declines in core CPI and CPI in January this year were both affected to a certain extent by the misalignment of last year’s Spring Festival holiday in January. On the other hand, the year-on-year decline in CPI exceeded market expectations and also reflected that the current recovery of household consumption is still lower than the market. expected. According to data from multiple platforms such as Fliggy, Mafengwo Big Data, Tuniu and Tongcheng, residents’ tourism consumption data during the Spring Festival this year has increased significantly. Considering the lower base prices of pork and crude oil in the first half of last year, combined with the current consumption recovery trend, it is expected that this year In the first half of the year, CPI is expected to rise overall year-on-year. In January 2024, PPI was -2.5% year-on-year, +0.2 PCTS compared with the previous month, and month-on-month was -0.2%, +0.1 PCTS compared with the previous month. In January 2024, PPIRM was -3.4% year-on-year, +0.4 PCTS compared with the previous month, and -0.2% month-on-month, the same as the previous month. From the perspective of industrial sub-sectors, in January 2024, among the 30 sub-sectors, the PPI of 10 sub-sectors was positive month-on-month, which was the same as in December last year. In January 2024, the prices of 18 of the 50 means of production increased month-on-month, which was the same as in December last year. The price base of industrial products dropped in the first half of last year. Combined with the current industrial recovery trend, it is expected that the year-on-year decline in PPI will gradually decrease in the first half of this year. The financing demand of the private sector has taken over from government bonds, and financial data has improved significantly. The increase in social financing scale in January 2024 was 6.5 trillion yuan (previous value 1.94 trillion yuan), which was higher than market expectations of 5.8 trillion yuan. In January 2024, new social financing increased by 504.4 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of year-on-year growth. In January 2024, the growth rate of social financing stocks was +9.5%, the previous value was +9.5%, which was higher than the market expectation of +9.4%. Structurally, the social financing structure has improved significantly in January 2024, which has changed from being driven by government debt to being driven by social financing demand. Specifically: entity loans (new RMB loans under the social financing caliber) increased by 4.84 trillion yuan, which was less than the same period last year. The increase of 91.4 billion yuan was mainly due to the high base in January last year due to the dual factors of \"year-opening momentum + prevention and control policy adjustments\". In fact, entity loans in January this year were significantly higher than those in the same month in the past five years except last year, and the demand for entity financing was not the same. Not weak; new undiscounted bank acceptance bills off the balance sheet increased by 267.2 billion yuan year-on-year, accounting for 53% of the year-on-year increase in social financing that month. Combined with the 560.6 billion yuan year-on-year decrease in bill financing in January and the rise in bill interest rates in January, it is speculated that The increase in off-balance sheet undiscounted bills is mainly due to the spillover effect of tight on-balance sheet financing quotas; corporate bond financing increased by 319.7 billion yuan year-on-year, accounting for 63.3% of the year-on-year increase in social financing that month. We believe it is mainly due to the sluggish stock market and on-balance sheet credit Under the combined effects of the tight situation and the decline in credit bond interest rates, companies are increasingly seeking funds through the issuance of bonds; government bonds increased by 119.3 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of PSL and the availability of 1 trillion special government bond funds, and the necessity of special bond issuance decline, and the release pace has slowed down.', 'authorid': UUID('4742b007-903b-50d6-ade3-9921cbbf7a57'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9590019108727574, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '6IUDVS5L3I1CTPL9VUB6BHCTIBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:19:52 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '6IUDVS5L3I1CTPL9VUB6BHCTIBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7ab9eca5-a7ad-56c1-b0a5-6ce4034f08e3'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic topic: 6 major policy signals from the two sessions in various regions', 'author': 'He Ning', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7YI8dXsJfdjq5gmmcpkhNuc=', 'researcher': '何宁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7YI8dXsJfdjq5gmmcpkhNuc=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622381400_1.pdf?1708333664000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622381400_1.pdf?1708333664000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic topic: 6 major policy signals from the two sessions in various regions', 'originalAuthor': '何宁', 'originalContent': '多省下调2024年GDP增长目标，失业率与物价目标基本持平，判断全国经济增速目标或为5%1、大多数省市GDP目标持平或下调（15个省市下调，11省市持平，5省市上调）。全国31省市按2022年GDP加权平均的2024年GDP目标为5.3%，相比2023年的GDP目标均值5.4%有所下降。2、此前达成任务的省市更倾向于维持原有目标。2023年共有15个省市实际经济增速达成目标，而这些省市2024年目标更趋于持平或上调，仅有2省下调。GDP较高的经济大省增速目标多数下降，除浙江省外均未上调。2023年实际增速未达成目标的省份下调幅度更大。在多数省份下调增速目标的背景下，我们认为2024年全国经济增速目标或为5%。3、2024年，大多数省市失业率目标与2023年持平，仍在5.5%左右。2024年各省市CPI增速目标与2023年大体持平，预计全国CPI同比目标大概率保持在3%左右。投资：重大项目数量超4万个，“三大工程”将成为有力支撑1、基建投资方面，2024年有21个省份公布固定资产投资增速目标。公布的省份加权平均增速目标约为6%，较2023年的7.9%有所降低。12省下调幅度高于经济大省，12省下调3个百分点，经济大省下调2.4个百分点。（1）地方两会共计划推进超4万个重大项目，强调扩大有效投资。我们统计地方两会已公布的项目数量，重大投资项目共约4.7万个；投资资金共计约8.3万亿元，重大项目计划数量高于2023年。多数省市投资项目以交通、水利等重大基础设施建设为主，新型基础设施聚焦工业互联网、智能算力、数据中心等。（2）经济大省投资端发力程度或与2023年基本相当。浙江、广东、江苏、山东、河南5个经济大省2024年计划重大项目数量和投资金额基本与2023年持平。2、房地产方面，2024年地方加大保障性租赁住房供给并新增上万城改、旧改项目，预计拉动投资增长。（1）保障房：各省市两会公布的新增保障房套数共计12.9万套，保租房套数共计53.5万套，合计约66万套，超过2023年统计目标值。地市方面，根据各地级市2024年两会数据，35个试点城市共规划新增保障房和保租房73.7万套。（2）城中村改造：省级两会公布的老旧小区改造项目共计3.4万个；35个试点城市公布的城中村改造项目共约4万个，老旧小区改造数量约4.4万个，合计超8万个。（3）加强预售资金监管，推进商品房现房销售。产业：推动制造业产业升级，传统、新兴、未来产业并举1、各地侧重点有所不同，经济大省更重“发展”，12省略偏重于现代化产业体系建设。分析两会报告，经济大省文本中更偏重经济增长、抓好政策落实；而12省工作报告相比之下将现代化产业体系建设放在更为重要的位置。这或指向2024年在部分地区注重化债的背景下，经济大省将承担更重的稳增长责任。2、继续推动以制造业为重点的产业转型升级，传统、新兴、未来产业并举。地方政府提及较多的主要包括新型材料，新能源汽车，电子信息，先进装备，现代医药、航空等战略新兴产业；以��人工智能、生物制造、卫星应用、低空经济、储能等未来产业。消费与出口：提振大宗与新型消费，发展外贸新动能1、消费：2024年各省市消费增长目标大多调降，公布目标的22个省份中，仅有重庆、浙江、辽宁、黑龙江4省市有所调升，13省下调。促消费措施主要为两方面，一是提振汽车、家电、电子产品等大宗消费；二是发展数字、绿色、健康消费等新型消费。2、对外开放：提及较多的举措包括建立高能级开放平台，也就是加快推动自贸试验区建设；发展外贸新动能，加强优势产品出口，出口市场也在拓宽，稳住欧美的同时向东盟和中东拓展。风险提示：政策执行力度不及预期，经济超预期下行。', 'content': 'Many provinces have lowered their GDP growth targets for 2024, and the unemployment rate and price targets are basically the same. It is judged that the national economic growth target may be 5%1. The GDP targets of most provinces and cities have been unchanged or lowered (15 provinces and cities have lowered their GDP targets, and 11 provinces and cities have kept the same. 5 provinces and cities increased). The 2024 GDP target based on the weighted average of 2022 GDP for the country\\'s 31 provinces and cities is 5.3%, which is lower than the 2023 average GDP target of 5.4%. 2. Provinces and cities that have previously achieved their goals are more inclined to maintain their original goals. A total of 15 provinces and cities will achieve their actual economic growth targets in 2023, and the targets for these provinces and cities in 2024 will tend to be flat or raised, with only 2 provinces lowering their targets. Most of the growth targets for major economic provinces with higher GDP have been lowered, and none have been raised except for Zhejiang Province. Provinces whose actual growth rate does not reach the target in 2023 will have a larger downward adjustment. In the context of most provinces lowering their growth targets, we believe that the national economic growth target in 2024 may be 5%. 3. In 2024, the unemployment rate targets in most provinces and cities will remain the same as in 2023, still around 5.5%. The CPI growth targets of various provinces and cities in 2024 are roughly the same as those in 2023. It is expected that the national CPI year-on-year target will most likely remain around 3%. Investment: The number of major projects exceeds 40,000, and the \"three major projects\" will provide strong support. 1. In terms of infrastructure investment, 21 provinces have announced fixed asset investment growth targets in 2024. The announced provincial weighted average growth target is about 6%, which is lower than the 7.9% in 2023. The reduction in the 12 provinces is higher than that in the economically large provinces, with the reduction of 3 percentage points in the 12 provinces and the reduction of 2.4 percentage points in the economically large provinces. (1) The local two sessions planned to promote more than 40,000 major projects, emphasizing the expansion of effective investment. According to our statistics on the number of projects announced by the local two sessions, there are about 47,000 major investment projects; the total investment funds are about 8.3 trillion yuan, and the number of major projects planned is higher than that in 2023. Most provincial and municipal investment projects focus on the construction of major infrastructure such as transportation and water conservancy, and new infrastructure focuses on the industrial Internet, intelligent computing power, data centers, etc. (2) The level of investment efforts in major economic provinces may be basically the same as in 2023. The number and investment amounts of major projects planned in the five major economic provinces of Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and Henan in 2024 are basically the same as in 2023. 2. In terms of real estate, in 2024, local governments will increase the supply of affordable rental housing and add tens of thousands of urban renovation and old renovation projects, which is expected to drive investment growth. (1) Affordable housing: The two sessions of various provinces and cities announced a total of 129,000 new affordable housing units and a total of 535,000 rent-guaranteed housing units, totaling approximately 660,000 units, exceeding the 2023 statistical target. In terms of prefectures and cities, according to data from the two sessions of prefecture-level cities in 2024, 35 pilot cities have planned to add a total of 737,000 affordable housing and rent-guaranteed housing. (2) Urban village renovation: A total of 34,000 old community renovation projects were announced at the provincial two sessions; a total of about 40,000 urban village renovation projects were announced in 35 pilot cities, and the number of old community renovation projects was about 44,000. The total number exceeded 80,000. (3) Strengthen the supervision of pre-sale funds and promote the sales of existing commercial housing. Industry: Promote the upgrading of the manufacturing industry, and promote traditional, emerging, and future industries simultaneously. 1. The focus of each region is different. Economically large provinces place more emphasis on \"development\", while 12 omit and focus on the construction of a modern industrial system. Analyzing the reports of the two sessions, the text of the major economic provinces places more emphasis on economic growth and policy implementation; in contrast, the work reports of the 12 provinces place the construction of a modern industrial system in a more important position. This may point to the fact that in 2024, in the context of some regions focusing on debt reduction, economically large provinces will assume greater responsibility for stabilizing growth. 2. Continue to promote industrial transformation and upgrading focusing on manufacturing, and develop traditional, emerging and future industries simultaneously. The ones mentioned more frequently by local governments mainly include strategic emerging industries such as new materials, new energy vehicles, electronic information, advanced equipment, modern medicine, and aviation; as well as future industries such as artificial intelligence, biomanufacturing, satellite applications, low-altitude economy, and energy storage. Consumption and exports: Boost bulk and new consumption, and develop new drivers of foreign trade 1. Consumption: Most provinces and cities have lowered their consumption growth targets in 2024. Among the 22 provinces that have announced targets, only 4 provinces and cities: Chongqing, Zhejiang, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang There was an increase, while 13 provinces had a decrease. Measures to promote consumption mainly focus on two aspects. One is to boost bulk consumption such as automobiles, home appliances, and electronic products; the other is to develop new consumption such as digital, green, and healthy consumption. 2. Opening up to the outside world: The frequently mentioned measures include establishing a high-level opening platform, that is, accelerating the construction of free trade pilot zones; developing new drivers of foreign trade, strengthening the export of advantageous products, and expanding the export market, stabilizing Europe and the United States while moving towards ASEAN and Middle East Expansion. Risk warning: Policy implementation is less than expected, and the economy declines more than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('52a5389c-6434-575d-ad8f-dccb9d09cd11'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8737059887498617, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KEDR6VTKQ4UKHIA4HKNTQGSR57VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:19:55 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KEDR6VTKQ4UKHIA4HKNTQGSR57VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2cb8ae50-c10a-5008-9227-9a03b37db9b1'), 'title': 'Macro and major asset allocation weekly report: consumption during the Spring Festival holiday is bright', 'author': 'Zhang Xiaojiao, Chen Qi, Zhu Qibing', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7XfJtgil9dR/h24vFd+oeoQ=', 'researcher': '张晓娇,陈琦,朱启兵', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000213120', '11000288352', '11000224223'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7XfJtgil9dR/h24vFd+oeoQ=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622381397_1.pdf?1708335399000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622381397_1.pdf?1708335399000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro and major asset allocation weekly report: consumption during the Spring Festival holiday is bright', 'originalAuthor': '张晓娇,陈琦,朱启兵', 'originalContent': '2024年春节假期消费数据出现较明显增长；美国1月通胀同比增速超市场预期。大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。宏观要闻回顾经济数据：1月CPI同比下降0.8%，PPI同比下降2.5%；1月新增社融6.5万亿元，新增信贷4.92万亿元，M2同比增长8.7%。要闻：国家主席习近平在二〇二四年春节团拜会上发表讲话；央行发布《2023年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》；2024年春节假期国内旅游出游4.74亿人次，同比增长34.3%，按可比口径较2019年同期增长19%，国内游客出游总花费6326.87亿元，同比增长47.3%，按可比口径较2019年同期增长7.7%；中国证监会主要领导调整。资产表现回顾春节前一周A股反弹，债券基本平稳波动。春节前一周沪深300指数上涨5.83%，沪深300股指期货上涨3.95%；焦煤期货春节前一周上涨0.44%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌0.62%；股份制银行理财预期收益率收于1.5%，余额宝7天年化收益率上涨2BP至2.04%；十年国债收益率上行2BP至2.43%，活跃十年国债期货春节前一周下跌0.22%。资产配置建议大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。2024年春节假期国内旅游出游4.74亿人次，同比增长34.3%，按可比口径较2019年同期增长19%；国内游客出游总花费6326.87亿元，同比增长47.3%，按可比口径较2019年同期增长7.7%。2024年春节档电影票房已突破80亿元，总观影人次突破1.61亿，总场次383.6万。虽然1月通胀数据表现略低于市场预期，其中服务价格表现也较历史同期平均水平偏低，表明内需复苏仍有偏弱的现象，但春节假期居民消费较2019年同期实现了较明显的增长，且整体好于市场预期，也显示出我国内需偏弱但韧性较强的情况。另一方面，1月金融数据表现超出市场预期，其中居民短贷和中长贷都较去年同期多增，继春节的季节性消费走强之后，还需要关注在年初以来房地产政策持续调整影响下，商品房销售和房价走势的变化趋势。风险提示：全球通胀回落偏慢；欧美经济回落速度过快；国际局势复杂化。', 'content': 'Consumption data during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday showed significant growth; the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. inflation in January exceeded market expectations. The order of allocation of major asset categories: stocks>blocks>bonds>currency. Macro news review economic data: CPI fell by 0.8% year-on-year in January, PPI fell by 2.5% year-on-year; new social financing in January was 6.5 trillion yuan, new credit was 4.92 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 8.7% year-on-year. Important news: President Xi Jinping delivered a speech at the 2024 Spring Festival group visit; the central bank released the \"China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2023\"; 474 million domestic tourism trips were made during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, according to On a comparable basis, it increased by 19% compared with the same period in 2019. The total expenditure of domestic tourists on travel was 632.687 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.3%. On a comparable basis, it increased by 7.7% compared with the same period in 2019; the main leadership of the China Securities Regulatory Commission has been adjusted. Asset Performance Review A-shares rebounded in the week before the Spring Festival, and bonds basically fluctuated steadily. The CSI 300 Index rose 5.83% in the week before the Spring Festival, and the CSI 300 stock index futures rose 3.95%; coking coal futures rose 0.44% in the week before the Spring Festival, and the main iron ore contract fell 0.62% this week; the expected return rate of joint-stock bank financial management closed at 1.5% , Yu\\'e Bao\\'s 7-day annualized yield rose 2BP to 2.04%; the ten-year government bond yield rose 2BP to 2.43%, and active ten-year government bond futures fell 0.22% in the week before the Spring Festival. Asset allocation suggests the order of asset allocation for major categories: Stocks>Bulks>Bonds>Currency. During the Spring Festival holiday in 2024, there were 474 million domestic tourist trips, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, and a comparable increase of 19% compared with the same period in 2019; the total travel expenditure of domestic tourists was 632.687 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.3%, and a comparable increase of 7.7% compared with the same period in 2019. %. The box office of the 2024 Spring Festival movie has exceeded 8 billion yuan, the total number of moviegoers has exceeded 161 million, and the total number of screenings has been 3.836 million. Although January\\'s inflation data was slightly lower than market expectations, and service price performance was also lower than the historical average for the same period, indicating that the recovery of domestic demand is still weak, residents\\' consumption during the Spring Festival holiday achieved significant growth compared with the same period in 2019. , and overall better than market expectations, it also shows that my country\\'s domestic demand is weak but resilient. On the other hand, the performance of financial data in January exceeded market expectations. Among them, both short-term and medium- and long-term residential loans increased compared with the same period last year. Following the strong seasonal consumption during the Spring Festival, we also need to pay attention to the impact of continued adjustments to real estate policies since the beginning of the year. Change trends in commercial housing sales and housing prices. Risk warning: Global inflation is falling slowly; European and American economies are falling too fast; the international situation is complicated.', 'authorid': UUID('76b88f79-b02c-5c61-b92b-a80d22796f0f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9335794597864151, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'UNPU0LORM69G3TI404857H73LRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:19:57 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'UNPU0LORM69G3TI404857H73LRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('10a8b4cb-670e-5e18-b309-efcfe97398fe'), 'title': 'Overseas market dynamics tracking during the Spring Festival holiday: When will “quasi-tightening transactions” end?', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Fan Chengkai', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7UAEYrCpPH2W1q5468v1+To=', 'researcher': '钟正生,范城恺', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000369143'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=I9L4maxgM1u8W3KZvKpn7UAEYrCpPH2W1q5468v1+To=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622381382_1.pdf?1708339131000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402191622381382_1.pdf?1708339131000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas market dynamics tracking during the Spring Festival holiday: When will “quasi-tightening transactions” end?', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,范城恺', 'originalContent': '平安观点：主题评论：“类紧缩交易”何时休？美国通胀数据高于预期，引发市场降息预期大幅修正。截至2月17日，CME数据显示市场对首次降息的押注推迟至6月，全年降息次数减少至3.9次。美国金融市场上演“类紧缩交易”，10年美债利率一度升破4.3%，美元指数一度上至接近105，美股有所承压。美国通胀会不会持续反弹？这一风险目前相对可控。首先，美国经济增长韧性或减缓通胀回落，但未必引发通胀上行。最新公布的1月美国零售销售环比收缩，指向美国消费增长趋于降温。其次，红海局势等相关供给冲击，尚不至于令美国通胀明显反弹。集装箱运价、美国PMI交付指数等数据暗示，相关供给扰动或远弱于2021-22年新冠冲击和俄乌冲突的影响。最后，美国通胀预期保持相对稳定，有利于通胀走向2%目标。需要指出的是，美国市场上演“类紧缩交易”，并非完全出于对于美国通胀和货币政策的担忧。例如，美元指数的上行，或部分归因于欧洲和日本孱弱的经济数据；美债利率的上行，或部分归因于美债供需担忧。而且，虽然美国资产上演“类紧缩”行情，但非美资产近期表现亮眼，或也侧面反映全球投资者对于美元流动性并不过度担忧。我们认为，“类紧缩交易”或不会持续太久，美债利率和美元指数或已基本处于全年顶部，美股虽有阶段调整风险，但全年表现仍有望保持积极。海外经济政策：1）美国：1月核心CPI同比增速持平于3.9%，CPI同比增速回落至3.1%，均高于市场预期。其中，住房项价格环比增速扩大，剔除住房以外的服务类价格也有所反弹；多位美联储官员表示在降息问题上仍需更多信心，博斯蒂克表示夏季是开始降息的合理节点；1月零售销售额环比超预期回落至-0.8%；1月工业产出环比回落，连续两个月后首次下跌；2月消费者信心指数持续上行，创2021年7月以来新高；1月联邦政府预算赤字回落；最新初请失业金人数回落至21.2万人，略低于市场预期。2）欧洲：欧元区2023年四季度GDP同比终值为0.1%，持平于初值。英国2023年四季度GDP环比增速为-0.3%，经济连续两个季度下滑；1月CPI同比增速持平于4%，略低于预期。3）日本：2023四季度实际GDP环比折年率为-0.4%，意外萎缩。全球大类资产：1）股市：美股下跌，科技股回调；欧日股市上涨，日经225指数直逼历史高位。2）债市：10年期美债收益率整周上涨13BP至4.3%，其中实际利率整周上涨5BP至1.97%，隐含通胀预期上涨8BP至2.33%。3）商品：布伦特油价整周上涨1.6%，至83.5美元/桶；金价整周下降1.3%，至1997.9美元/盎司。4）外汇：美元指数整周上涨0.47%，收至104.28；非美货币贬值，欧元和英镑贬值幅度较大。风险提示：海外金融风险超预期，海外货币政策超预期，国际地缘局势超预期等。', 'content': 'Ping An’s Viewpoint: Topic Comment: When will “quasi-constriction trading” end? U.S. inflation data was higher than expected, triggering a sharp revision in market interest rate cut expectations. As of February 17, CME data showed that market bets on the first interest rate cut were postponed to June, and the number of interest rate cuts throughout the year was reduced to 3.9. The U.S. financial market staged a \"quasi-tightening transaction\". The 10-year U.S. bond interest rate once rose above 4.3%, and the U.S. dollar index once reached close to 105. U.S. stocks were under pressure. Will U.S. inflation continue to rebound? This risk is currently relatively controllable. First, the resilience of U.S. economic growth may slow down the fall in inflation, but it may not trigger an increase in inflation. The latest release of U.S. retail sales in January showed a month-on-month contraction, pointing to a cooling of U.S. consumption growth. Secondly, related supply shocks such as the Red Sea situation will not cause a significant rebound in U.S. inflation. Data such as container freight rates and the U.S. PMI delivery index suggest that relevant supply disturbances may be far weaker than the impact of the COVID-19 impact and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2021-22. Finally, U.S. inflation expectations remain relatively stable, which is conducive to inflation moving toward the 2% target. It should be pointed out that the “quasi-tightening trade” in the U.S. market is not entirely due to concerns about U.S. inflation and monetary policy. For example, the rise in the U.S. dollar index may be partly due to weak economic data in Europe and Japan; the rise in U.S. bond interest rates may be partly due to concerns about the supply and demand of U.S. debt. Moreover, although U.S. assets have staged a \"quasi-tightening\" trend, non-U.S. assets have performed well recently, which may also reflect that global investors are not overly worried about U.S. dollar liquidity. We believe that the \"quasi-tightening trade\" may not last long. U.S. bond interest rates and the U.S. dollar index may be basically at the top of the year. Although U.S. stocks are subject to phased adjustment risks, their performance throughout the year is still expected to remain positive. Overseas economic policies: 1) United States: In January, the core CPI year-on-year growth rate remained unchanged at 3.9%, and the CPI year-on-year growth rate fell back to 3.1%, both higher than market expectations. Among them, the price growth of housing items expanded month-on-month, and the prices of services excluding housing also rebounded; many Federal Reserve officials said that more confidence is still needed on the issue of interest rate cuts, and Bostic said that summer is a reasonable point to start cutting interest rates; 1 Month-on-month retail sales fell more than expected to -0.8%; industrial output fell month-on-month in January, falling for the first time in two consecutive months; the consumer confidence index continued to rise in February, hitting a new high since July 2021; the federal government in January The budget deficit fell; the latest number of initial jobless claims fell to 212,000, slightly lower than market expectations. 2) Europe: The final year-on-year GDP value of the Eurozone in the fourth quarter of 2023 was 0.1%, unchanged from the initial value. The UK\\'s GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 was -0.3%, and the economy has declined for two consecutive quarters; the year-on-year CPI growth rate in January was flat at 4%, slightly lower than expected. 3) Japan: In the fourth quarter of 2023, the real GDP annualized rate was -0.4%, unexpectedly shrinking. Global major asset classes: 1) Stock market: U.S. stocks fell, technology stocks pulled back; European and Japanese stock markets rose, and the Nikkei 225 index approached a record high. 2) Bond market: The 10-year U.S. bond yield rose 13 BP to 4.3% throughout the week, of which the actual interest rate rose 5 BP to 1.97%, and the implied inflation expectation rose 8 BP to 2.33%. 3) Commodities: Brent oil prices rose 1.6% throughout the week to $83.5/barrel; gold prices fell 1.3% throughout the week to $1,997.9/ounce. 4) Foreign exchange: The U.S. dollar index rose 0.47% throughout the week to close at 104.28; non-U.S. currencies depreciated, with the euro and pound depreciating significantly. Risk warning: Overseas financial risks exceed expectations, overseas monetary policies exceed expectations, international geopolitical situations exceed expectations, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('1faba558-17d3-5821-ae0e-e52593c216b5'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9250366669148207, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '1Q9GK8S7NIBCRBGMPO7Q08M4HJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:20:00 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '1Q9GK8S7NIBCRBGMPO7Q08M4HJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6e16f12b-cfcb-5d60-a772-ac0a8c9136d1'), 'title': 'Commentary on financial data in January 2024: Pay attention to the sustainability of social financing improvement', 'author': 'Guo Rui', 'orgName': '山西证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000080', 'orgSName': '山西证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEgI56nvyH+UPN0iWyIlSrgg=', 'researcher': '郭瑞', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000179017'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEgI56nvyH+UPN0iWyIlSrgg=', 'site': 'Shanxi Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '山西证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622378489_1.pdf?1708328828000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622378489_1.pdf?1708328828000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on financial data in January 2024: Pay attention to the sustainability of social financing improvement', 'originalAuthor': '郭瑞', 'originalContent': '投资要点：1月新增社融高于预期。1月末社融存量为384.29万亿元，同比增长9.5%（前值9.5%）。1月社融新增6.5万亿元，同比增加5160亿元。社融存量增速和新增社融均高于万得一致预期值。同时，无论是单月社融还是近两个月社融合计均创2002年以来新高。但也要考虑到，今年和去年春节假期错位以及去年防疫政策调整对社融均带来影响，我们更应结合1-2月社融整体情况进行评判。分项看，新增未贴现银行承兑汇票、非标（委托贷款+信托贷款）、企业债券同比多增，人民币贷款、政府债券、股票融资同比少增。（1）社融口径新增人民币贷款4.84万亿元，同比减少914亿元，环比增加3.73万亿元。1月新增人民币贷款及近两个月贷款合计值均低于去年同期，但好于其他年份的同期值。同时，1月新增贷款及贷款增速也好于预期值。（2）1月非标新增6008亿元，同比多增2523亿元，环比多增7571亿元。（3）1月新增未贴现银行承兑汇票5635亿元，同比多增2672亿元，环比多增7502亿元。（4）1月企业债券新增4835亿元，同比多增3282亿元，环比多增7576亿元。（5）1月新增政府债券2947亿元，同比少增1193亿元，环比少增6377亿元。（6）1月股票融资新增422亿元，同比少增542亿元，环比少增86亿元。住户贷款总量及结构弱改善。1月住户贷款新增9801亿元，同比增加7229亿元，环比增加7580亿元，表现好于去年12月。住户中长期贷款新增6272亿元，同比及环比分别多增4041亿元和4810亿元，住户中长期贷款存量增速5.2%，较上月回升0.1个百分点。企业贷款总量尚可，结构改善。1月新增企业贷款3.86万亿元，同比减少8200亿元，环比增加2.97万亿元。1月企业贷款存量增速12.0%(前值13.0%)，其中短期贷款和中长期贷款增速均有所下滑。尽管企业贷款表现不及去年，但在高基数下也不算太差。近3个月企业贷款期限结构持续改善，去年12月及今年1月，企业中长期贷款占比均为2018年以来同期最高。2023年四季度以来需求回落，经济动能下滑，实际利率高位等因素影响企业加杠杆动力。财政脉冲下基建项目加快，PSL重启一定程度缓解经济和企业信贷下滑压力，但总体上还需要政策端进一步推动融资成本下降。M1增速明显回升，企业经营活力有所恢复。1月M2增速为8.7%（前值9.7%），低于wind一致预期的9.3%。M0增速为5.9%（前值8.3%），M1增速为5.9%（前值1.3%）。M1增速连续7个月回落后于去年12月企稳，于今年1月回升。M1-M2为-2.8%，较上月的-8.4%收窄5.6个百分点。市场启示：融资改善持续性有待观察，价格信号偏弱，债市依然顺风，关注央行视角下的宽货币节奏。1月PMI及通胀数据显示经济动能依然偏弱。1月社融及信贷有所好转，一定程度得益于春节假期错位的因素，持续性有待观察。央行在2023年四季度货币政策执行报告中也指出当前我国经济依然面临“社会预期依然偏弱”“需求不足与产能过剩的矛盾较为突出”等问题。货币政策工具的运用依然“要保持银行体系流动性合理充裕和货币市场利率平稳运行”，并通过多种方式“保持融资和货币总量合理增长”。整体来说债市顺风环境未变。节奏上，LPR及MLF利率调降次序、两会政策博弈是短期的主要扰动。若LPR先于MLF调降，则收益率可能先上后下。另外，央行也更加关注货币金融的效率问题，从畅通货币政策传导渠道的角度提出“落实存款利率市场化调整机制”“理顺贷款利率与债券收益率等市场利率的关系”，从宽信用角度提出“合理把握债券与信贷两个最大融资市场的关系”“促进贷款合理增长，加强信贷均衡投放”“着力提升贷款使用效率”等。上述提法可能对近期及中期货币政策节奏产生扰动。风险提示：国内外宏观环境超预期变化；稳增长政策力度超预期；地缘政治风险加剧。', 'content': 'Investment points: New social financing in January was higher than expected. At the end of January, the stock of social financing was 384.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% (the previous value was 9.5%). In January, social financing increased by 6.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 516 billion yuan. The growth rate of social financing stock and new social financing were both higher than Wind’s consensus expectations. At the same time, both the single-month social financing and the total social financing in the past two months hit a new high since 2002. However, we must also take into account that the misalignment of the Spring Festival holidays this year and last year and the adjustment of epidemic prevention policies last year will have an impact on social finance. We should make a judgment based on the overall situation of social finance in January and February. Broken down, new undiscounted bank acceptance bills, non-standard (entrusted loans + trust loans), and corporate bonds increased year-on-year, while RMB loans, government bonds, and stock financing decreased year-on-year. (1) New RMB loans under the social financing standard were 4.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 91.4 billion yuan and a month-on-month increase of 3.73 trillion yuan. The new RMB loans in January and the total value of loans in the past two months were lower than the same period last year, but better than the same period in other years. At the same time, new loans and loan growth in January were also better than expected. (2) Non-standard sales increased by 600.8 billion yuan in January, an increase of 252.3 billion yuan year-on-year and an increase of 757.1 billion yuan month-on-month. (3) New undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 563.5 billion yuan in January, an increase of 267.2 billion yuan year-on-year and an increase of 750.2 billion yuan month-on-month. (4) Corporate bonds increased by 483.5 billion yuan in January, an increase of 328.2 billion yuan year-on-year and an increase of 757.6 billion yuan month-on-month. (5) New government bonds increased by 294.7 billion yuan in January, a decrease of 119.3 billion yuan year-on-year and a decrease of 637.7 billion yuan month-on-month. (6) Equity financing increased by 42.2 billion yuan in January, a decrease of 54.2 billion yuan year-on-year and a decrease of 8.6 billion yuan month-on-month. The total volume and structure of household loans improved weakly. In January, household loans increased by 980.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 722.9 billion yuan, and a month-on-month increase of 758 billion yuan. The performance was better than that in December last year. Medium and long-term household loans increased by 627.2 billion yuan, an increase of 404.1 billion yuan year-on-year and 481 billion yuan month-on-month respectively. The stock of medium- and long-term household loans increased by 5.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The total amount of corporate loans is acceptable and the structure has improved. New corporate loans in January were 3.86 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 820 billion yuan and a month-on-month increase of 2.97 trillion yuan. The stock of corporate loans grew by 12.0% in January (previous value was 13.0%), with growth rates of both short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans declining. Although corporate loan performance is not as good as last year, it is not too bad on a high base. The term structure of corporate loans has continued to improve in the past three months. In December last year and January this year, the proportion of medium- and long-term corporate loans was the highest in the same period since 2018. Since the fourth quarter of 2023, demand has fallen, economic momentum has declined, high real interest rates and other factors have affected companies\\' motivation to increase leverage. Infrastructure projects are accelerating under the fiscal pulse, and the restart of PSL has alleviated the downward pressure on the economy and corporate credit to a certain extent, but overall policy needs to further promote the reduction of financing costs. The growth rate of M1 has picked up significantly, and the business vitality of enterprises has recovered. M2 growth in January was 8.7% (previous value 9.7%), lower than the wind consensus forecast of 9.3%. The growth rate of M0 was 5.9% (previous value 8.3%), and the growth rate of M1 was 5.9% (previous value 1.3%). The M1 growth rate stabilized after falling for seven consecutive months in December last year, and then picked up in January this year. M1-M2 was -2.8%, narrowed by 5.6 percentage points from -8.4% last month. Market Enlightenment: The sustainability of the financing improvement remains to be seen, price signals are weak, and the bond market is still tailwind. Pay attention to the loose monetary rhythm from the perspective of the central bank. January PMI and inflation data show that economic momentum is still weak. Social financing and credit improved in January, which was partly due to the misalignment of the Spring Festival holiday. The sustainability remains to be seen. The central bank also pointed out in its monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2023 that my country\\'s economy still faces problems such as \"social expectations are still weak\" and \"the contradiction between insufficient demand and overcapacity is more prominent\". The use of monetary policy tools still \"should maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system and the smooth operation of money market interest rates\", and \"maintain reasonable growth in financing and monetary aggregates\" through various methods. Overall, the tailwind environment for the bond market has not changed. In terms of rhythm, the order of LPR and MLF interest rate reductions and the policy game between the two sessions are the main short-term disturbances. If LPR is lowered before MLF, the yield may first rise and then fall. In addition, the central bank has also paid more attention to the efficiency of monetary finance. From the perspective of unblocking monetary policy transmission channels, it has proposed \"implementing the market-based adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates\" and \"straightening out the relationship between loan interest rates and bond yields and other market interest rates.\" From the perspective of broadening credit It is proposed to \"reasonably grasp the relationship between the two largest financing markets of bonds and credit\", \"promote reasonable growth of loans and strengthen balanced credit extension\" and \"strive to improve the efficiency of loan use\". The above formulation may disrupt the pace of monetary policy in the near and medium term. Risk warning: Domestic and foreign macro-environments have changed more than expected; policies to stabilize growth have been stronger than expected; geopolitical risks have intensified.', 'authorid': UUID('e521f4b9-7006-505f-b080-07c6b67b7ccf'), 'sentimentScore': 0.923388984054327, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'NHDN0P1GEGINQPQ4D2P0F7T62NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:20:04 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'NHDN0P1GEGINQPQ4D2P0F7T62NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('130df869-f9d9-508d-af14-179734ad3af5'), 'title': 'Comments on the Central Bank’s Fourth Quarter Monetary Policy Implementation Report: Countercyclical adjustment continues to be positive', 'author': 'Zhu Qibing, Sun Deji', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEtLdsUQjdbzMakqYBB180Mg=', 'researcher': '朱启兵,孙德基', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000224223', '11000296533'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEtLdsUQjdbzMakqYBB180Mg=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622378385_1.pdf?1708334423000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622378385_1.pdf?1708334423000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on the Central Bank’s Fourth Quarter Monetary Policy Implementation Report: Countercyclical adjustment continues to be positive', 'originalAuthor': '朱启兵,孙德基', 'originalContent': '北京时间2月8日，央行发布2023年四季度货币政策执行报告。本次报告具体提及了供需矛盾与预期偏弱问题，货币政策导向相对积极，对于货币信贷供需规律和新特点也做出了进一步阐述，具体来看：1.货币信贷供需规律和新特点形势下，信贷高质量投放也意味着低效存量金融资源的出清，首次提及通过到期转投、优化新增投向、推动市场化出清三类途径提升效率，数量方面更需关注涵盖直接融资的社会融资规模，以及拉长时间观察信贷累计增量；2.成本“稳中有降”定调延续，后续存款利率还将继续下行，即存款利率下行是中长期方向，在市场利率变化显著的情况下，存款挂牌利率调整可能性更高，在整体利率水平下行的背景下贷款利率下行的过程也未结束。聚焦供需矛盾与预期偏弱问题。经济前景方面，四季度货政报告看法更为谨慎，相对于三季度强调“债务拉动经济增长的效能降低”、“房地产供求关系发生重大变化”、“推动经济加快转型的紧迫性上升”三大问题，四季度报告中聚焦于经济增长中具体的堵点，一是“消费者信心指数和民间投资增速仍处低位，需求不足与产能过剩的矛盾较为突出”，二是“制造业PMI连续4个月位于收缩区间，社会预期依然偏弱”。海外方面则是强调全球大选年的不确定性以及高利率的滞后影响。物价表述积极。物价方面，报告表述由“回归常态”调整为“温和回升”，同时提出“目前物价水平较低背后反映的是经济有效需求不足、总供求恢复不���步”。预计随着供求格局改善，基数效应的逐步减弱，物价将进一步回升，CPI呈现持续复苏但斜率偏低的趋势，但是2月之后低基数或将带动CPI同比增速触底回升，国内工业企业补库存周期影响及低基数也将有利于PPI同比增速走高。政策导向延续积极。货币政策导向方面，报告表述由“稳健的货币政策要精准有力，更加注重做好跨周期和逆周期调节”，调整为“稳健的货币政策将灵活适度、精准有效，强化逆周期和跨周期调节”，其中“逆周期调节”次序前置，对应着下一阶段政策导向更趋积极，发力点聚焦于推进存款利率市场化带动整体利率水平下行、以及提升贷款使用效率、优化新增贷款投向等方面。优化贷款投向，提升直接融资占比。继三季度货政报告提出“准确把握货币信贷供需规律和新特点”后，四季度报告进一步提出“合理把握债券与信贷两个最大融资市场的关系”。这意味着数量方面，提升直接融资占比方向较为清晰，优化新增贷款投向、推动必要的市场化出清或进一步平滑贷款增量水平，涵盖直接融资的社会融资规模增速相对贷款规模增速可能稳定性更强。理顺信贷与债券市场利率关系。报告在专栏2提出“切实理顺信贷市场和债券市场、大银行和中小银行之间的利率关系”，这是以往贷款市场报价利率形成机制外新增的变化，反映出央行对于低成本信贷资金空转套利行为的关注。后续央行或将引导利率自律机制成员单位根据市场利率变化合理调整存款利率水平，预计存款挂牌利率或仍有主动调降空间。风险提示：经济下行压力加大；流动性超预期收紧；地产复苏不及预期', 'content': 'On February 8, Beijing time, the central bank released its monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2023. This report specifically mentioned the contradiction between supply and demand and weak expectations. The direction of monetary policy is relatively positive. It also further elaborated on the laws and new characteristics of money and credit supply and demand. Specifically: 1. The laws and new characteristics of money and credit supply and demand. Under the situation, high-quality credit also means the liquidation of inefficient existing financial resources. For the first time, it is mentioned that three ways to improve efficiency are through maturity transfer, optimizing new investment directions, and promoting market-oriented liquidation. In terms of quantity, more attention needs to be paid to covering direct financing. The scale of social financing, and the cumulative increase in credit will be observed over a longer period of time; 2. The \"stable but declining\" tone of costs will continue, and subsequent deposit interest rates will continue to decline, that is, the decline in deposit interest rates is the medium- and long-term direction. Changes in market interest rates have shown that Under the circumstances, the deposit listed interest rate is more likely to be adjusted, and the process of downward loan interest rates is not over yet against the backdrop of a downward trend in the overall interest rate level. Focus on the contradiction between supply and demand and weak expectations. In terms of economic prospects, the fourth quarter monetary policy report has a more cautious view. Compared with the third quarter, it emphasized that \"the effectiveness of debt-driven economic growth has decreased\", \"major changes in real estate supply and demand\", and \"the urgency of promoting economic transformation has increased\". problem, the fourth quarter report focused on specific blocking points in economic growth. First, “the consumer confidence index and private investment growth rate are still at low levels, and the contradiction between insufficient demand and overcapacity is more prominent.” Second, “the manufacturing PMI continues to decline. It has been in the contraction zone for four months, and social expectations are still weak.\" Overseas, they emphasized the uncertainty of the global election year and the lagging impact of high interest rates. Price statements are positive. In terms of prices, the report\\'s statement was adjusted from \"return to normal\" to \"moderate recovery\", and also proposed that \"the current low price level reflects the lack of effective economic demand and the out-of-sync recovery of total supply and demand.\" It is expected that as the supply and demand pattern improves and the base effect gradually weakens, prices will rebound further, and CPI will continue to recover but with a low slope. However, the low base after February may drive the CPI year-on-year growth to bottom out and rebound. Domestic industrial enterprises will supplement The impact of the inventory cycle and the low base will also be conducive to higher year-on-year PPI growth. Policy orientation continues to be positive. In terms of monetary policy orientation, the report\\'s statement was adjusted from \"a sound monetary policy must be precise and powerful, and pay more attention to cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustments\" to \"a sound monetary policy will be flexible, appropriate, precise and effective, and strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments\". \", among which \"countercyclical adjustment\" is placed first, corresponding to a more positive policy orientation in the next stage, focusing on promoting the marketization of deposit interest rates to drive down the overall interest rate level, improving the efficiency of loan use, and optimizing the direction of new loans. etc. Optimize loan investment and increase the proportion of direct financing. After the third quarter monetary policy report proposed “accurately grasping the laws and new characteristics of money and credit supply and demand,” the fourth quarter report further proposed “reasonably grasping the relationship between the two largest financing markets, bonds and credit.” This means that in terms of quantity, the direction of increasing the proportion of direct financing is relatively clear, optimizing the direction of new loans, promoting necessary market clearing, or further smoothing the level of loan increments. The growth rate of social financing scale covering direct financing is relative to the growth rate of loan scale. Maybe more stable. Straighten out the relationship between credit and bond market interest rates. In column 2, the report proposes to “effectively rationalize the interest rate relationship between the credit market and the bond market, and between large banks and small and medium-sized banks.” This is a new change in addition to the previous loan market quotation interest rate formation mechanism, reflecting the central bank’s focus on low-cost credit funds. Concerns about idling arbitrage behavior. Subsequently, the central bank may guide member units of the interest rate self-discipline mechanism to reasonably adjust deposit interest rates based on changes in market interest rates. It is expected that there may still be room for active reductions in the deposit listed interest rates. Risk warning: Economic downward pressure increases; liquidity tightens more than expected; real estate recovery falls short of expectations', 'authorid': UUID('c31d980c-b37c-5b03-955a-deb736b33593'), 'sentimentScore': 0.04058858938515186, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'MPGNI8FJP3R37OJURCGC3DDK27VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:20:06 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'MPGNI8FJP3R37OJURCGC3DDK27VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('44bf19cc-5327-5f9f-a02b-f0240c404b62'), 'title': 'Comments on financial data in January: Credit has had a good start and the effect is significant', 'author': 'Zhu Qibing, Sun Deji', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-19', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMElByRYxTZ6y6pRWxMvkKjr0=', 'researcher': '朱启兵,孙德基', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000224223', '11000296533'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMElByRYxTZ6y6pRWxMvkKjr0=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622371579_1.pdf?1708334880000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622371579_1.pdf?1708334880000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on financial data in January: Credit has had a good start and the effect is significant', 'originalAuthor': '朱启兵,孙德基', 'originalContent': '1月份社会融资规模增量为6.5万亿元，比上年同期多5044亿元，高于市场预期。1月社融存量同比增长9.5%，较上月不变。1月新增社融高于市场预期，整体来看政策发力下信贷需求持续旺盛，我们认为后期关注点主要包括：1.去年12月以来政策多次强调平滑信贷波动，受春节假期和1月开门红效应透支影响，2月信贷可能有所回落，政策导向下累计增量的指示意义可能更强，1-2月合计的贷款读数或有平滑的迹象，后续需结合一季度总体新增信贷情况进行观察；2.1月M1增速大幅回升，既有低基数影响，也有加快增发国债资金拨付使用、PSL流动性投放等因素的推动，后续还需关注M1增速回升的持续性。企业债及汇票贡献主要同比增量。1月社融各分项中，表内融资同比多增206亿元，表外融资同比多增2523亿元，直接融资同比多增2655亿元，整体开门红效应偏强，在去年高基数的基础上仍实现同比多增。1月社融口径人民币贷款新增48400亿元，同比少增914亿元，实现信贷开门红。1月企业债发行4835亿元，同比多增3197亿元，贡献主要增量，低利率环境下，企业债券发行意愿有所改善。1月表外票据新增5635亿元，同比多增2672亿元，主要由于年初企业开票诉求旺盛，表内票据规模压降下表外票据需求提升。1月政府债券新增2947亿元，同比少增1193亿元，一季度加快增发国债资金拨付使用叠加信贷开门红效应，政府债前置发力诉求较低。M2持续下降，M1同比回升。1月M2同比增长8.70%，较上月下降1.0个百分点；M1同比增长5.90%，较上月上升4.6个百分点；M0同比增长5.90%，较上月下降2.4个百分点。1月M2-M1剪刀差收窄至2.8%，其中M2同比增速下滑，受春节错位因素影响，去年1月居民存款高基数影响下今年1月居民存款同比大幅少增，是M2增速下滑的主要原因；其次，M1同比增速大幅提升，反映出增发国债资金回流、房企融资协调机制、PSL流动性投放等政策推动下，企业资金活化程度明显改善。居民贷中长贷修复，企业贷结构改善。1月新增贷款4.92万亿元，同比多增200亿元，高于市场预期。其中居民贷新增9801亿元，同比多增7229亿元，企业贷新增38600亿元，同比少增8200亿元。1月信贷达历史峰值，居民中长贷大幅改善，企业贷结构改善：企业部门方面，企业中长贷新增33100亿元、短贷新增14600亿元、票据减少9733亿元。企业部门中长期贷款同比少增1900亿元，在去年高基数的基础上仅呈现小幅同比少增，政策逐渐发力显效，年初短贷旺季下企业短贷环比大幅增长，同时在信贷平滑的诉求下，企业票据大幅压缩，同比少增5606亿元。居民部门中长贷新增6272亿元、短贷新增3528亿元。居民短贷同比多增3187亿元，处于季节性较高水平，居民中长贷同比多增4041亿元，年初以来稳地产政策频出，居民中长贷后期仍有支撑。财政支出仍需加速。1月人民币存款新增5.48万亿元，同比少增13900亿元，其中居民存款新增25300亿元，同比少增36700亿元，企业存款新增11400亿元，同比多增18555亿元，财政存款新增8604亿元，同比多增1776亿元，非银存款新增5526亿元，同比少增4574亿元。1月春节错位效应影响下，居民存款呈现同比大幅少增，其次财政存款高于季节性，次月春节月份财政支出将加码，或将带动M2增速向上修复。风险提示：经济下行压力加大；流动性超预期收紧；地产复苏不及预期。', 'content': \"The increase in social financing in January was 6.5 trillion yuan, 504.4 billion yuan more than the same period last year, higher than market expectations. The stock of social financing increased by 9.5% year-on-year in January, unchanged from the previous month. New social financing in January was higher than market expectations. Overall, credit demand continues to be strong due to policy efforts. We believe that the main concerns in the later period include: 1. Since December last year, policies have repeatedly emphasized smoothing credit fluctuations. Due to the Spring Festival holiday and January Affected by the overdraft effect of a good start in the month, credit may fall back in February. The cumulative increase under policy guidance may be more indicative. The total loan readings from January to February may show signs of smoothing. The follow-up needs to be combined with the overall new credit in the first quarter. The situation will be observed; the M1 growth rate rebounded sharply in February. It was not only affected by the low base, but also driven by factors such as the accelerated allocation and use of additional government bond funds and PSL liquidity injection. In the future, we need to pay attention to the sustainability of the M1 growth rate recovery. The contribution of corporate bonds and bills of exchange mainly increased year-on-year. Among the various sub-categories of social financing in January, on-balance sheet financing increased by 20.6 billion yuan year-on-year, off-balance sheet financing increased by 252.3 billion yuan year-on-year, and direct financing increased by 265.5 billion yuan year-on-year. The overall good start effect was relatively strong. Based on last year’s high base Still achieved year-on-year growth. In January, RMB loans under social financing standards increased by 4.84 trillion yuan, a decrease of 91.4 billion yuan year-on-year, achieving a good start in credit. In January, corporate bond issuance amounted to 483.5 billion yuan, an increase of 319.7 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing mainly to the increase. Under the low interest rate environment, corporate bond issuance willingness has improved. Off-balance sheet bills increased by 563.5 billion yuan in January, an increase of 267.2 billion yuan year-on-year. This was mainly due to strong demands from companies for invoicing at the beginning of the year, and the demand for off-balance sheet bills increased as the scale of on-balance sheet bills decreased. In January, government bonds increased by 294.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 119.3 billion yuan year-on-year. In the first quarter, the increase in the issuance of government bonds was accelerated, and the use of funds combined with credit has a good start effect, and the demand for government debt front-loading is low. M2 continued to decline, while M1 rebounded year-on-year. In January, M2 increased by 8.70% year-on-year, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month; M1 increased by 5.90% year-on-year, up 4.6 percentage points from the previous month; M0 increased by 5.90% year-on-year, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous month. The M2-M1 scissor gap narrowed to 2.8% in January, of which M2 growth rate declined year-on-year. Affected by the Spring Festival dislocation factor, residents' deposits increased significantly less year-on-year in January this year due to the high base of residents' deposits in January last year. This was the reason for the decline in M2 growth rate. The main reason; secondly, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 has increased significantly, reflecting the significant improvement in the activation of corporate funds driven by policies such as the return of funds from the additional issuance of government bonds, the financing coordination mechanism for housing companies, and PSL liquidity injection. The medium and long-term residential loans were repaired, and the structure of corporate loans was improved. New loans in January were 4.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 20 billion yuan year-on-year, higher than market expectations. Among them, resident loans increased by 980.1 billion yuan, an increase of 722.9 billion yuan year-on-year, and corporate loans increased by 3.860 billion yuan, a decrease of 820 billion yuan year-on-year. Credit reached a historical peak in January, with residents' medium and long-term loans improving significantly, and the corporate loan structure improving: In terms of the corporate sector, corporate medium and long-term loans increased by 3.31 trillion yuan, short-term loans increased by 1.460 billion yuan, and bills decreased by 973.3 billion yuan. The medium- and long-term loans of the corporate sector decreased by 190 billion yuan year-on-year. On the basis of last year's high base, there was only a slight year-on-year decrease. The policy gradually became effective. During the short-term loan season at the beginning of the year, corporate short-term loans increased significantly month-on-month. At the same time, in the demand for credit smoothing Under this situation, corporate bills were significantly reduced, with a year-on-year decrease of 560.6 billion yuan. In the residential sector, medium and long-term loans increased by 627.2 billion yuan, and short-term loans increased by 352.8 billion yuan. Residential short-term loans increased by 318.7 billion yuan year-on-year, which is at a seasonal high level. Residents' medium and long-term loans increased by 404.1 billion yuan year-on-year. Since the beginning of the year, policies to stabilize real estate have been frequently introduced, and residents' medium and long-term loans will still be supported in the later period. Fiscal spending still needs to be accelerated. In January, RMB deposits increased by 5.48 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.39 trillion yuan year-on-year. Among them, residents' deposits increased by 2.530 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.670 billion yuan year-on-year. Corporate deposits increased by 1.140 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8555 billion yuan year-on-year. Finance Deposits increased by 860.4 billion yuan, an increase of 177.6 billion yuan year-on-year. Non-bank deposits increased by 552.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 457.4 billion yuan year-on-year. Affected by the dislocation effect of the Spring Festival in January, residents' deposits showed a substantial year-on-year decrease. Secondly, fiscal deposits were higher than seasonal. Fiscal expenditures will increase during the Spring Festival the following month, which may lead to an upward recovery of M2 growth. Risk warning: downward pressure on the economy is increasing; liquidity is tighter than expected; real estate recovery is less than expected.\", 'authorid': UUID('c31d980c-b37c-5b03-955a-deb736b33593'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9364385828375816, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'T4EMFTQ4L05MJ70PI8N9RRFBVBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:20:09 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'T4EMFTQ4L05MJ70PI8N9RRFBVBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5bf2df5d-f6d3-5cef-9bc1-7b0c01e32fd0'), 'title': 'Comments on financial data in January 2024: Credit greatly exceeded expectations, and its sustainability remains to be seen.', 'author': 'Sui Binbin, Sui Shuping', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有��公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEiS6HGriHF24D4HkZ++5qYM=', 'researcher': '孙彬彬,隋修平', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000176280', '11000452032'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEiS6HGriHF24D4HkZ++5qYM=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622358855_1.pdf?1708275887000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622358855_1.pdf?1708275887000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on financial data in January 2024: Credit greatly exceeded expectations, and its sustainability remains to be seen.', 'originalAuthor': '孙彬彬,隋修平', 'originalContent': '摘要：1月社融信贷数据的三点关注第一，信贷在高基数下略有多增，总体大超预期，其中居民贷款是主要支撑，企业贷款、票据融资形成拖累。第二，社融同比多增，结构边际改善。企业债券、表外票据、信托贷款、外币贷款同比多增，政府债券、委托贷款同比少增。第三，M1同比大幅上行，一方面M1环比处于季节性高位，企业存款活化；另一方面春节错位等因素确有影响。（2013年、2015年、2018年、2021年均为2月春节、上一年1月春节的情况，均存在1月M1同比上行、2月M1同比快速下行）。社融信贷超预期，对债市利率是上行压力，但需要基本面有所验证，结合PMI数据来看，居民贷款持续性仍待观察。此外，春节前取现需求会推动M1季节性上行，春节错位也会让M1同比先上后下，后续关键仍然是广义财政的速与量。宏观层面尚未发生重大变化，因此短期内债市或仍维持震荡，下一个关键时点在3月两会。风险提示：货币政策不及预期、增量政策超预期、基本面超预期', 'content': 'Summary: Three points to note about social credit data in January. First, credit increased slightly against a high base, and overall exceeded expectations. Residential loans were the main support, while corporate loans and bill financing were a drag. Second, social financing increased year-on-year and the structural margin improved. Corporate bonds, off-balance sheet bills, trust loans, and foreign currency loans increased year-on-year, while government bonds and entrusted loans decreased year-on-year. Third, M1 rose sharply year-on-year. On the one hand, M1 was at a seasonal high month-on-month, and corporate deposits were activated; on the other hand, factors such as the Spring Festival misalignment did have an impact. (The Spring Festival in 2013, 2015, 2018, and 2021 was all in February and the Spring Festival in January of the previous year. There was a year-on-year increase in M1 in January and a rapid decrease in M1 in February). Social financing credit exceeded expectations and put upward pressure on bond market interest rates, but the fundamentals need to be verified. Based on PMI data, the sustainability of household loans remains to be seen. In addition, the demand for cash withdrawals before the Spring Festival will drive the seasonal upward trend of M1, and the misalignment of the Spring Festival will also cause M1 to first rise and then fall year-on-year. The key to the follow-up is still the speed and volume of broad finance. There have been no major changes at the macro level, so the bond market may remain volatile in the short term. The next critical time will be the two sessions in March. Risk warning: Monetary policy falls short of expectations, incremental policies exceed expectations, and fundamentals exceed expectations', 'authorid': UUID('b2d281a4-e52f-565c-a23d-abb08195361a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9114171713590622, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '9HIPAOEBD4EUKBJQGUJN0C4VQ3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:20:12 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '9HIPAOEBD4EUKBJQGUJN0C4VQ3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0161c383-02be-5639-8e32-c1d40dd51686'), 'title': 'Macro and major asset classes weekly report: The sun is new every day', 'author': 'Yang Weiqiu, Meng Zijun', 'orgName': '国元证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001043', 'orgSName': '国元证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEjE8SEnXLyscKrpYk2Eje3k=', 'researcher': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000176619', '11000337831'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEjE8SEnXLyscKrpYk2Eje3k=', 'site': 'Guoyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国元证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622358678_1.pdf?1708275712000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622358678_1.pdf?1708275712000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro and major asset classes weekly report: The sun is new every day', 'originalAuthor': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'originalContent': '报告要点：本周关注——通缩不是问题，CPI的问题是菜价和旅游的问题，这两个问题主要是基数的问题，更值得关注的是当前猪周期的反弹和PPI的韧性。事情并非只有黑白两面，通缩若不成立，并不代表通胀值得交易，目前看，猪肉和PPI的弹性是受限的，原因是平稳的猪料比以及全球金融环境的制约。在年前的若干文章中，我们反复提到过剩流动性的问题，从1月加速下降的贷款增长速度和狭义社融增长速度看，这个问题不但需要重视，而且到了应非常警惕的程度。M2已基本复位，M1的反弹与春节错位引致的企业发奖金时点错位、进而企业活期存款错位有关，后续M1的表现仍待观察。从权益市场仍然高于2018年底的市盈率看，权益市场对剩余流动性的交易似乎还不充分，而在另一面，在宽信用的政策及效果出现转机之前，债券市场也如是。流动性梗阻这个问题将会导致资产风格的拐点也变得更不确定，市场已经不在周期这个轨道之内，钱堆在银行体系之后，不再自然而然地能通过宽信用悉数投放出去，回顾历史的话，这件事在过往几乎没有发生过，因此，当前的经验及周期已经无法帮助我们揭示答案，太阳每天都是新的，在此环境下，跟踪的意义还远大于预测。目前看，美国通胀在这个平台上，很难进一步下台阶，其原因还是我们强调的能化驱动的逻辑，这可能会延后美国降息的时点，然而，中国流动性的问题会不会导致全球流动性同样打破固有的周期形态，这也需要进一步观察，但目前可以确定的是，美国的降息交易也不会一帆风顺。核心观点——宏观经济：虽然金融周期至此，但目前内溢的外部流动性能够基本稳住库存周期，这导致经济基本面至少是平的。资产配置：从货币到信用的传导堵塞是当前市场风险偏好不高的本源，恢复的方式和节奏是个比较大的风险偏好转向的契机，建议右侧交易。利率债：在上面所说的拐点到来之前，利率债还可以保持长久期，但监管是需要密切关注的一条可能转向的线索。权益市场：流动性阻塞是我们之前没有预期到的阻力，当前周期理论的预测已经失灵，关键要看后面的信用何时能有效扩张起来。信用市场：35号文后，城投债的预期差几乎被消灭，在风控允许的范围内，可以尽可能下潜城投信用，地产信用还需等等。商品市场：从绝对价格的角度，当前的商品价格是偏高的，但从周期意义上说，商品可能即将出现一个上行的波段，此中尤其可以关注原油价格的修复。风险提示：宏观政策落地不及预期等', 'content': \"Highlights of the report: This week’s focus is that deflation is not a problem. The problem with CPI is vegetable prices and tourism. These two problems are mainly based on the base. What deserves more attention is the rebound of the current pig cycle and the resilience of PPI. Things are not just black and white. If deflation is not established, it does not mean that inflation is worth trading. At present, the elasticity of pork and PPI is limited due to the stable pig feed ratio and the constraints of the global financial environment. In several articles a year ago, we repeatedly mentioned the issue of excess liquidity. Judging from the accelerated decline in loan growth and narrow social financing growth in January, this issue not only requires attention, but also requires great vigilance. M2 has basically reset. The rebound of M1 is related to the misalignment of corporate bonuses due to the Spring Festival misalignment, and thus the misalignment of corporate current deposits. The subsequent performance of M1 remains to be seen. Judging from the fact that the equity market is still higher than the price-to-earnings ratio at the end of 2018, the equity market seems to be insufficient for trading the remaining liquidity. On the other hand, the same is true for the bond market before the credit-easing policy and its effects turn around. The problem of liquidity obstruction will cause the inflection point of asset styles to become more uncertain. The market is no longer within the cycle. Money is piled up behind the banking system, and it can no longer be naturally released through wide credit. Looking back at history, , this thing has almost never happened in the past, so the current experience and cycle can no longer help us reveal the answer. The sun is new every day. In this environment, the significance of tracking is far greater than prediction. At present, it is difficult for U.S. inflation to fall further from this platform. The reason is still the energy-driven logic we emphasize. This may delay the timing of U.S. interest rate cuts. However, will China's liquidity problem lead to Global liquidity also breaks the inherent cyclical pattern, which also requires further observation, but what is certain at present is that the U.S. interest rate cut transaction will not be smooth sailing. Core point of view - macroeconomics: Although the financial cycle has reached this point, the current internal overflow of external liquidity can basically stabilize the inventory cycle, which results in the economic fundamentals being at least flat. Asset allocation: The blockage of transmission from currency to credit is the source of the current low risk appetite in the market. The way and rhythm of recovery is a relatively large opportunity for risk preference to shift. It is recommended to trade on the right side. Interest rate bonds: Before the inflection point mentioned above, interest rate bonds can still maintain a long period, but supervision is a clue to a possible turn that needs to be paid close attention to. Equity market: Liquidity congestion is a resistance we did not expect before. The predictions of the current cycle theory have failed. The key depends on when credit can be effectively expanded later. Credit market: After Document No. 35, the expected difference in urban investment bonds has been almost eliminated. Within the scope of risk control, we can dive into urban investment credit as much as possible, but real estate credit has to wait. Commodity market: From an absolute price perspective, current commodity prices are on the high side, but from a cyclical perspective, commodities may be about to experience an upward trend, in which we can especially pay attention to the recovery of crude oil prices. Risk warning: The implementation of macro policies falls short of expectations, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('06a6231a-b667-541e-b1fd-3c96f32864dc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.38742581009864807, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'MV0S31AJC0C3BRIS8SJFVR5QN7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:20:16 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'MV0S31AJC0C3BRIS8SJFVR5QN7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f8427c6a-eb44-5edf-bc59-39100728480a'), 'title': 'The sixty-nineth series of insightful works: The economic picture under population mobility', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Zhang Yunjie', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEsjJwXTmNowlRirwnMeuZkM=', 'researcher': '赵伟,张云杰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000369443'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEsjJwXTmNowlRirwnMeuZkM=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622336068_1.pdf?1708266985000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622336068_1.pdf?1708266985000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The sixty-nineth series of insightful works: The economic picture under population mobility', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,张云杰', 'originalContent': '2024年春运跨区人流量高于往年，但人口迁徙距离有所缩短。春节前全社会跨区流动量较为“平淡”，“黄金周”开启后旅游出行人流明显增多，带动跨区人流量大幅提升。春运前20日，平均跨区人流分别较2023、2019年同期增长13.9%、11.1%；分运输方式看，自驾出行显著增多，反映远距离出行的旅客发送量较2019年同期下滑43%。分区域看，合肥、长沙等中部强省会城市人口聚集力提升，春节前净迁出规模高于往年。2024年春节前，合肥、长沙净迁出指数位于全国前列，分别较2023年同期增长7.3%、5%，指向该地区人口聚集力提升。相比之下，广州、上海、北京等一线城市净迁出指数更高，但强度有所减弱，分别较2023年同期下降0.2%、7.9%、10.3%。以成都、郑州为代表的传统劳务输出地区，春节前迁入、迁出强度双低，当地人口或更多留在本地就业。2024年春节前，多数城市迁徙强度显著提升，而成都、郑州人员跨区流动强度偏低，迁出指数分别较2023年同期回落3.1%、2.3%。与此同时，郑州、成都的省内迁徙比重显著高于其他城市，指向当地人口返乡目的地集中在省内。二问：短途迁徙更多，有何原因？老龄化削弱外出务工意愿，中部发展加快、人口虹吸强化人口老龄化趋势下，农民工平均年龄上升、外出务工意愿下滑，中西部劳务输出大省人口迁徙距离或随之���短。2023年我国外出农民工近3亿人，是跨区出行的主力人群。2011-2022年，农民工老龄化程度加深、50岁以上人数占比上升14.9个百分点至29.2%，外出务工意愿随之下滑、人数占比下降4.6个百分点至58.1%。中部地区产业政策扶持力度较大，汽车等代表性行业增长较快，人才需求增多、人口“虹吸”效应随之强化。近年来东部生产要素成本上升、中部政策扶持力度加大，部分产业加快向中部地区转移。以安徽为例，2023年汽车、电器机械、运输设备增加值分别录得33.9%、20%、19.4%的高增长。伴随产业发展，当地人力需求增多、引进人才力度较大。疫情期间东部发达地区亏损企业数量增加、就业压力相应上升，外来人口净迁入强度有所减弱。2023年前三季度，亏损上市企业较2019年增加562家，东部地区占比65.7%，主要集中在计算机设备、橡胶塑料、非金属制品等吸纳就业人数占比较高的制造业。2023年，山东、天津等地新增城镇就业较2019年回落，安徽、湖北等地有所增长。三问：人口流动“变局”，或有哪些影响？中西部产业集聚度、消费活力有望进一步增强中西部人口回流有助于提升当地产业集聚度，配合政策加码，或进一步强化人才吸引力。近年来，四川、安徽等地产业集聚度持续提升，较东部地区差距有所缩短。2024年地方政府工作报告中，安徽、湖南等中西部地区在三大任务中明确“加快构建现代化产业体系”，未来政策有望加码、带动产业承接能力增强、进一步提升人才吸引力。人口集聚有利于促进当地消费，进而带动居民收入增长，形成正循环。2023年，四川、湖北、湖南、江西等人口集聚力提升省份，社零两年复合同比分别为4.4%、5.6%、4.2%、5.8%，高于全国水平的3.4%；居民人均可支配收入两年复合同比分别为5.7%、6.8%、5.9%、5.8%，高于全国水平的5.66%。经济活跃度改善地区，汽车等大宗消费亦呈现较快增长。伴随中西部等地活跃人口增加，商务活动、自驾出行需求增多，当地汽车消费也有明显提升。2023年成都、郑州、重庆、武汉汽车销量均突破40万辆，分别同比增长14.7%、29.3%、10.9%、9.3%；对应城市车流量增加，2023年日均拥堵延时指数分别同比增长6.6%、7.3%、6.0%、10.7%。风险提示经济复苏不及预期，政策落地效果不及预期。', 'content': 'The cross-regional flow of people during the Spring Festival in 2024 is higher than in previous years, but the migration distance has been shortened. Before the Spring Festival, the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society was relatively \"flat\". After the start of the \"Golden Week\", the flow of tourist travel increased significantly, which led to a significant increase in cross-regional flow. In the 20 days before Spring Festival travel, the average cross-regional passenger flow increased by 13.9% and 11.1% respectively compared with the same period in 2023 and 2019. In terms of transportation modes, self-driving travel increased significantly, reflecting that the number of passengers traveling long distances fell by 43% compared with the same period in 2019. From a regional perspective, the population agglomeration of strong provincial capital cities in central China such as Hefei and Changsha has increased, and the scale of net out-migration before the Spring Festival is higher than in previous years. Before the Spring Festival in 2024, the net out-migration index of Hefei and Changsha was at the forefront of the country, with an increase of 7.3% and 5% respectively compared with the same period in 2023, pointing to the increase in population agglomeration in the region. In contrast, the net outmigration index of first-tier cities such as Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing is higher, but the intensity has weakened, falling by 0.2%, 7.9%, and 10.3% respectively compared with the same period in 2023. In traditional labor export areas represented by Chengdu and Zhengzhou, the intensity of both in-migration and out-migration before the Spring Festival is low, and more of the local population may remain employed locally. Before the Spring Festival in 2024, the migration intensity in most cities has increased significantly, but the intensity of cross-regional mobility of people in Chengdu and Zhengzhou is relatively low, with the out-migration index falling by 3.1% and 2.3% respectively compared with the same period in 2023. At the same time, the proportion of intra-provincial migration in Zhengzhou and Chengdu is significantly higher than that in other cities, pointing to the fact that the local population’s return destinations are concentrated within the province. Second question: Why are there more short-distance migrations? Aging weakens the willingness to work outside the country. As the development of the central region accelerates and population siphoning intensifies, the average age of migrant workers increases and the willingness to work outside the country declines. The distance of population migration in major labor-exporting provinces in the central and western regions may be shortened accordingly. In 2023, there will be nearly 300 million migrant workers in my country, making them the main group of people traveling across regions. From 2011 to 2022, the aging of migrant workers has deepened, and the proportion of those over 50 years old has increased by 14.9 percentage points to 29.2%. The willingness to work outside has subsequently declined, and the proportion of migrant workers has dropped by 4.6 percentage points to 58.1%. The central region has strong industrial policy support, and representative industries such as automobiles have grown rapidly. The demand for talents has increased, and the population \"siphon\" effect has intensified. In recent years, the cost of production factors in the east has increased, and policy support has increased in the central region. Some industries have accelerated their transfer to the central region. Taking Anhui as an example, the added value of automobiles, electrical machinery, and transportation equipment will record high growth of 33.9%, 20%, and 19.4% respectively in 2023. With the development of the industry, the demand for local manpower has increased, and efforts to introduce talents have become stronger. During the epidemic, the number of loss-making enterprises in the developed eastern regions increased, employment pressure increased accordingly, and the intensity of net migration of foreign populations weakened. In the first three quarters of 2023, there were 562 more loss-making listed companies than in 2019, with the eastern region accounting for 65.7%. They are mainly concentrated in manufacturing industries with a high proportion of employment, such as computer equipment, rubber plastics, and non-metal products. In 2023, new urban employment in Shandong, Tianjin and other places will decline compared with 2019, while Anhui, Hubei and other places will increase. Third question: What are the impacts of population migration “changing the situation”? The degree of industrial agglomeration and consumption vitality in the central and western regions are expected to further increase. The return of population from the central and western regions will help increase the agglomeration of local industries, cooperate with policy enhancements, or further enhance the attraction of talents. In recent years, the degree of industrial agglomeration in Sichuan, Anhui and other places has continued to increase, and the gap has narrowed compared with the eastern region. In the 2024 local government work report, central and western regions such as Anhui and Hunan clearly stated \"accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system\" among the three major tasks. Future policies are expected to increase, drive the enhancement of industrial undertaking capabilities, and further enhance the attraction of talents. Population agglomeration is conducive to promoting local consumption, which in turn drives residents\\' income growth, forming a positive cycle. In 2023, in Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and other provinces with improved population agglomeration, the two-year compound year-on-year social growth rates will be 4.4%, 5.6%, 4.2%, and 5.8% respectively, higher than the national level of 3.4%; residents\\' per capita disposable income The two-year compound year-on-year rates were 5.7%, 6.8%, 5.9%, and 5.8% respectively, which was higher than the national level of 5.66%. In areas where economic activity has improved, bulk consumption such as automobiles has also shown rapid growth. With the increase in the active population in the central and western regions and other places, the demand for business activities and self-driving travel has increased, and local automobile consumption has also increased significantly. In 2023, car sales in Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, and Wuhan will all exceed 400,000 units, with year-on-year increases of 14.7%, 29.3%, 10.9%, and 9.3% respectively. Corresponding to the increase in urban traffic volume, the average daily congestion delay index in 2023 will increase by 6.6% year-on-year respectively. %, 7.3%, 6.0%, 10.7%. Risks suggest that the economic recovery is not as good as expected and the effect of policy implementation is not as good as expected.', 'authorid': UUID('ff469869-b6c6-5748-a897-a67668ded608'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9256212953478098, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TU71AO3R2UHA6I7KQUNP7PICN3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:20:19 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TU71AO3R2UHA6I7KQUNP7PICN3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0b272ea5-c454-53f4-a1ab-c09ce3808e17'), 'title': 'Comment on the Monetary Policy Implementation Report and January Financial Data: “Good Start” and Monetary Policy Trends', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Chang Yixin', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEotanZakP2aFJpb5NxcBTp0=', 'researcher': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000387731'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEotanZakP2aFJpb5NxcBTp0=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622333942_1.pdf?1708263087000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622333942_1.pdf?1708263087000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comment on the Monetary Policy Implementation Report and January Financial Data: “Good Start” and Monetary Policy Trends', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'originalContent': '平安观点：2023年第四季度货币政策执行报告中，三个问题值得关注：1、如何把握货币信贷的新特点？第一，多看利率下降的成效。2023年四季度，新发放贷款加权平均利率为3.83%，单季回落31bp，“降成本”力度较前三季度明显提升。第二，多看重点领域的金融支持力度。2023年末，高新技术企业贷款、绿色贷款、普惠小微贷款分别同比增长15.3%、36.5%和23.5%，均高于同期各项贷款增速。第三，多看涵盖直接融资的社会融资规模。报告“下一阶段主要政策思路”的第一点中，首提“保持融资和货币总量合理增长”，并解释“融资”包括债券和信贷两个最大市场，“稳信用”内涵得以拓展。2、如何理解信贷“盘活存量”？一方面，“盘活存量”的基本含义是信贷结构的有增有减。从1月人民币贷款数据看，票据融资创历史新低，银行以票“冲量”或有减少，也能体现信贷结构优化、存量盘活。另一方面，报告“下一阶段主要政策思路”部分看，“盘活存量”也包括必要的市场化出清、债务重组等方式。3、如何看待货币政策的动向？总量方面，报告多沿袭此前表述。我们认为，2024年MLF及LPR调降有20bp以上调降空间。结构方面，PSL资金的进一步落地、科创及数字金融的再贷款工具的推出值得期待。2023年1月金融数据呈现以下特点：1、社融受企业债及表外票据融资支撑。2024年1月新增社融规模6.5万亿，创历史同期新高；社融存量同比持平于9.5%。从分项看：1）未贴现票据明显多增，创2018年以来同期新高。2）企业债融资同比多增，因2023年初企业债融资受理财赎回潮冲击、基数偏低。3）权重较大的人民币信贷及政府债融资有所拖累，二者均弱于去年同期。2、人民币贷款结构趋于均衡，质量有所提升。1月新增人民币贷款同比略多增162亿元。结构上：1）企业中长贷自高位小幅回落，处历史同期次低点，离不开基建项目集中开工、城中村改造贷款投放的支撑。2）居民中长贷自低位有所恢复，与百强房企销售情况有所背离，或得益于居民提前偿还贷款减少。3）票据融资创历史新低。1月新增票据融资-9733亿元，创历史新低，体现信贷“盘活存量”的政策导向。3、货币供应方面：1）M1同比超预期回升，春节错位为主导因素，可持续性有待观察。考虑到去年同期春节较早、M1环比增速偏低，而24年1月末据离春节超过一周，工资奖金尚未集中发放，春节规律基本可以解释1月M1增速的“异动”。当然，万亿增发国债资金下发至项目，对M1增速也有一定支撑。2）M2同比增速回落1个百分点。除却去年同期高基数扰动，信贷增速回落、金融空转趋缓也有拖累。2024年2月8日，《2023年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》发布；2月9日，央行公布2024年1月金融数据统计报告。', 'content': 'Ping An’s perspective: In the monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2023, three issues deserve attention: 1. How to grasp the new characteristics of currency and credit? First, we should pay more attention to the effects of falling interest rates. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the weighted average interest rate of newly issued loans was 3.83%, a drop of 31bp in a single quarter, and the intensity of \"cost reduction\" was significantly improved compared with the first three quarters. Second, pay more attention to the intensity of financial support in key areas. At the end of 2023, high-tech enterprise loans, green loans, and inclusive small and micro loans increased by 15.3%, 36.5%, and 23.5% respectively year-on-year, which were all higher than the growth rates of various loans in the same period. Third, look more at the scale of social financing covering direct financing. In the first point of the report\\'s \"Main Policy Ideas for the Next Stage\", it is first mentioned that \"maintaining reasonable growth of financing and monetary aggregates\", and explains that \"financing\" includes the two largest markets of bonds and credit, and the connotation of \"stabilizing credit\" has been expanded. 2. How to understand “revitalizing the stock” of credit? On the one hand, the basic meaning of \"revitalizing the stock\" is the increase and decrease of the credit structure. Judging from the RMB loan data in January, bill financing hit a record low, and banks\\' \"impulse\" with bills may have decreased, which also reflects the optimization of the credit structure and the revitalization of stock. On the other hand, according to the \"Main Policy Ideas for the Next Stage\" section of the report, \"revitalizing the stock\" also includes necessary market-based liquidation, debt restructuring and other methods. 3. How do you view the trend of monetary policy? In terms of total volume, the report mostly follows previous statements. We believe that there is room for more than 20bp of reductions in MLF and LPR in 2024. In terms of structure, the further implementation of PSL funds and the launch of re-lending tools for technological innovation and digital finance are worth looking forward to. The financial data in January 2023 show the following characteristics: 1. Social financing is supported by corporate debt and off-balance sheet bill financing. In January 2024, the new social financing scale was 6.5 trillion, a record high for the same period in history; the stock of social financing remained unchanged at 9.5% year-on-year. From a breakdown: 1) The number of undiscounted bills increased significantly, reaching a new high for the same period since 2018. 2) Corporate debt financing increased year-on-year, because corporate debt financing was affected by the wave of wealth management redemptions in early 2023 and the base was low. 3) RMB credit and government bond financing, which are heavily weighted, have been dragged down, both of which were weaker than the same period last year. 2. The structure of RMB loans has become more balanced and the quality has improved. New RMB loans in January increased slightly by 16.2 billion yuan year-on-year. Structurally: 1) Medium and long-term corporate loans have fallen slightly from their highs and are at the second low in the same period in history, which is inseparable from the support of the intensive start of infrastructure projects and the release of loans for the renovation of urban villages. 2) Residential medium and long-term loans have recovered from the low level, deviating from the sales of the top 100 real estate companies, or benefiting from the reduction in residents\\' early repayments of loans. 3) Bill financing hit a record low. New bill financing in January was -973.3 billion yuan, a record low, reflecting the policy guidance of \"revitalizing the existing credit\". 3. In terms of money supply: 1) M1 rebounded more than expected year-on-year, with the Spring Festival dislocation as the leading factor, and its sustainability remains to be seen. Considering that the Spring Festival was earlier in the same period last year and M1’s month-on-month growth rate was relatively low, and that the end of January 2024 was more than a week away from the Spring Festival, wages and bonuses had not yet been distributed centrally, the Spring Festival pattern can basically explain the “abnormality” in M1 growth in January. Of course, the trillions of additional government bond funds issued to projects will also provide certain support for M1 growth. 2) The year-on-year growth rate of M2 fell by 1 percentage point. In addition to the high base disturbance in the same period last year, the decline in credit growth and the slowdown in financial idling are also dragging down. On February 8, 2024, the \"China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2023\" was released; on February 9, the central bank released the financial data statistical report for January 2024.', 'authorid': UUID('149306d1-3d93-5b17-941a-f5aa3a00dc04'), 'sentimentScore': 0.7017548978328705, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'CT4PSVRDJ7ORPLNA7F2QHMO92FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:20:22 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'CT4PSVRDJ7ORPLNA7F2QHMO92FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3a88fe2d-a8ed-522d-bc1d-d5a7999eafeb'), 'title': 'Domestic Observation: List of important events during the Spring Festival holiday - How is domestic consumption performing during the holiday?', 'author': 'Liu Sijia, Hu Shaohua', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEn7Nh3uAprDqi5T59qsgH2c=', 'researcher': '刘思佳,胡少华', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257478', '11000249934'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEn7Nh3uAprDqi5T59qsgH2c=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622321250_1.pdf?1708262283000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622321250_1.pdf?1708262283000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Domestic Observation: List of important events during the Spring Festival holiday - How is domestic consumption performing during the holiday?', 'originalAuthor': '刘思佳,胡少华', 'originalContent': '投资要点假期国内消费总体表现较好，地产销售仍弱。自驾出行为主，铁路民航恢复较好。根据交通运输部数据，正月初一至初七，全社会跨区域人员流动量合计19.85亿人次，同比增长17.24%，同比2019年同期增长25.26%。疫情后自驾出行占比提升仍在延续，出行量同比15.96%，同比2019年49.11%；客运方面，铁路、民航均恢复至疫情前水平。旅游消费热度提升。春节假期前7天，海南离岛免税购物金额达22.14亿元，同比增长41.92%，免税购物人数26.89万人次，同比增长71.27%。截至2月16日15时，春节前七天四川省全省纳入统计的833家A级旅游景区，接待游客、实现门票收入同比2023年31.76%、41.18%，同比2019年7.06%、22.55%。春节档票房创新高。据灯塔专业版数据，截至2月17日下午13点50分，2024年春节档已实现票房收入78.44亿元，已超过2021年春节创下的历史票房记录78.43亿元。地产销售仍明显偏弱。以初一至初六合计测算，2024年春节30大中城市商品房成交面积同比-38%，其中一线、二线、三线城市分别同比-21%、126%、-94%。假期重要经济数据。1.美国通胀全面高于预期。1月美国CPI同比上涨3.1%，环比0.3%，均高于市场预期。食品价格涨幅扩大，能源下跌，核心商品下跌但难以对冲核心服务0.7%的环比增幅。由于通胀全面高于预期，联邦基金互换市场将计价的降息开始时间从6月推迟到7月。2.国内金融数据实现“开门红”。1月新增人民币贷款4.92万亿元，新增社融6.5万亿元，M2增速回落，M1增速升至5.9%。金融数据总量及结构上均有一定改善，2M1剪刀差的收窄，春节错位虽占主导，但增发国债亦有一定带动，总体利好风险偏好的回升。3.央行发布2023年四季度中国货币政策执行报告。四季度执行报告整体延续中央经济工作会议精神，报告指出了经济回升向好，但也存在堵点，消费者信心、民间投资增速都处于低位，需求不足与产能过剩也存在矛盾，预计货币政策仍将维持相对宽松，量上或配合财政节奏，价上一季度LPR仍有概率下调。其他要闻。1.美国1月零售数据低于预期。2.美国1月PPI超预期。3.日本实际GDP连续两个季度负增长。4.英国连续两个季度GDP环比负增长。5.欧佩克月报预计2024年全球原油需求增速预期为225万桶/日不变。7.住建部：我国将每年改造10万公里以上地下管线。假期主要资产价格表现。春节期间，美国1月CPI及PPI相继公布，且均超市场预期，抢跑的降息预期被进一步修正，相反低于预期的零售数据对资产价格的影响并不明显。截至2月17日，CME显示5月不降息的概率已升至61.6%。日本、英国连续两个季度GDP环比增速均为负增长，进入技术性衰退，内需的走弱，可能会使日本央行在退出货币宽松的路上更显谨慎。春节期间国内消费表现较好，恒生指数及富时中国A50期货在假期期间均有不错表现，看好A股节后走势。2月12日-2月16日期间主要资产价格表现：权益市场：日股领涨，欧美股市有所分化，恒生指数、富时中国A50均表现较好。日经225指数创34年以来新高，上涨4.3%。道指、标普、纳指分别下跌0.1%、0.4%、1.3%。与A股相关的恒生指数、富时中国A50期货分别上涨3.8%、2.8%。债券市场：美国CPI及PPI先后超预期，10年期美债收益率周上行13个BP。欧债收益率也多数上涨。商品市场：WTI原油及布伦特原油分别上涨2.1%和1.6%，COMEX黄金周下跌1.7%。外汇市场：受降息预期波动，美元指数先涨后跌，总体收涨0.2%；日本经济增速不及预期，货币正常化预期推迟，日元跌0.6%。离岸人民币表现总体平稳，小幅贬值0.1%。风险提示：春节假期错位可能导致数据所反映的实际情况存在偏差；国际地缘政治局势的不确定性或推升能源价格；欧美货币政策的不确定性。', 'content': \"Investment Points Domestic consumption performed generally well during the holidays, but real estate sales remained weak. Self-driving travel is the main focus, and railway and civil aviation have recovered well. According to data from the Ministry of Transport, from the first day to the seventh day of the first lunar month, the total number of cross-regional personnel movements in society totaled 1.985 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.24%, and a year-on-year increase of 25.26% over the same period in 2019. The increase in the proportion of self-driving travel continued after the epidemic, with travel volume reaching 15.96% year-on-year and 49.11% year-on-year in 2019. In terms of passenger transport, both railways and civil aviation have returned to pre-epidemic levels. Tourism consumption has increased. In the seven days before the Spring Festival holiday, the amount of duty-free shopping on Hainan's outlying islands reached 2.214 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.92%, and the number of duty-free shoppers was 268,900, a year-on-year increase of 71.27%. As of 15:00 on February 16, 833 A-level tourist attractions in Sichuan Province were included in the statistics seven days before the Spring Festival. They received tourists and achieved ticket revenue of 31.76% and 41.18% year-on-year in 2023, and 7.06% and 22.55% year-on-year in 2019. The Spring Festival box office hit a new high. According to Beacon Professional Edition data, as of 13:50 pm on February 17, the 2024 Spring Festival has achieved box office revenue of 7.844 billion yuan, exceeding the historical box office record of 7.843 billion yuan set during the 2021 Spring Festival. Real estate sales remain significantly weak. Calculated from the first to the sixth day of the Lunar New Year, the transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bcommercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities during the Spring Festival in 2024 is -38% year-on-year, of which first-, second-, and third-tier cities are -21%, 126%, and -94% year-on-year respectively. Important economic data for the holidays. 1. U.S. inflation is higher than expected across the board. In January, U.S. CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, both higher than market expectations. Food price increases expanded, energy fell, and core commodities fell, but it was difficult to offset the 0.7% month-on-month increase in core services. With inflation across the board higher than expected, the federal funds swap market is delaying the start of pricing rate cuts from June to July. 2. Domestic financial data has achieved a “good start”. In January, new RMB loans were 4.92 trillion yuan, and new social financing was 6.5 trillion yuan. The growth rate of M2 fell back, and the growth rate of M1 rose to 5.9%. There has been some improvement in the total amount and structure of financial data. The 2M1 scissor gap has narrowed. Although the Spring Festival dislocation dominates, the additional issuance of government bonds also has a certain impact, which is generally positive for the recovery of risk appetite. 3. The central bank released China’s monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2023. The fourth quarter executive report overall continues the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference. The report points out that the economy is rebounding for the better, but there are still congestion points. Consumer confidence and private investment growth are at low levels. There are also conflicts between insufficient demand and overcapacity. Monetary policy is expected to It will still remain relatively loose, the volume may be in line with the fiscal pace, and there is still a possibility that the LPR will be lowered in the last quarter. Other Highlights. 1. U.S. retail sales data in January were lower than expected. 2. The U.S. PPI in January exceeded expectations. 3. Japan’s real GDP has experienced negative growth for two consecutive quarters. 4. The UK’s GDP has experienced negative quarter-on-quarter growth for two consecutive quarters. 5. OPEC’s monthly report predicts that the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2024 will remain unchanged at 2.25 million barrels per day. 7. Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: my country will renovate more than 100,000 kilometers of underground pipelines every year. Major asset price performance during the holidays. During the Spring Festival, the January CPI and PPI of the United States were announced one after another, and both exceeded market expectations. The early interest rate cut expectations were further revised. On the contrary, the impact of lower-than-expected retail data on asset prices was not obvious. As of February 17, CME showed that the probability of no interest rate cut in May had risen to 61.6%. The GDP growth rates of Japan and the United Kingdom have been negative for two consecutive quarters, entering a technical recession. The weakening of domestic demand may make the Bank of Japan more cautious in exiting monetary easing. Domestic consumption performed well during the Spring Festival. The Hang Seng Index and FTSE China A50 futures both performed well during the holiday. We are optimistic about the post-holiday trend of A shares. Price performance of major assets from February 12 to February 16: Equity market: Japanese stocks led the gains, European and American stock markets were somewhat differentiated, and the Hang Seng Index and FTSE China A50 both performed well. The Nikkei 225 hit a 34-year high, rising 4.3%. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq fell 0.1%, 0.4%, and 1.3% respectively. The Hang Seng Index and FTSE China A50 futures related to A shares rose by 3.8% and 2.8% respectively. Bond market: U.S. CPI and PPI exceeded expectations successively, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose 13 BP this week. European bond yields also mostly rose. Commodity market: WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil rose 2.1% and 1.6% respectively, while COMEX fell 1.7% during the golden week. Foreign exchange market: Affected by fluctuations in interest rate cut expectations, the U.S. dollar index first rose and then fell, closing overall up 0.2%; Japan's economic growth was slower than expected, currency normalization was expected to be delayed, and the Japanese yen fell 0.6%. The performance of offshore RMB was generally stable, with a slight depreciation of 0.1%. Risk warning: The misalignment of the Spring Festival holiday may lead to deviations in the actual situation reflected in the data; uncertainty in the international geopolitical situation may push up energy prices; uncertainty in European and American monetary policies.\", 'authorid': UUID('2bb8c3e6-3f18-54fc-986c-cc6e63caf435'), 'sentimentScore': 0.5998434573411942, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '4BKFF9MRFJ7F75DM9C1TST3N5RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:20:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '4BKFF9MRFJ7F75DM9C1TST3N5RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9c65262f-cdf3-5da4-afe3-517f1d9b1be9'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: Top management heavily supports the capital market, and overseas monetary policies attract attention', 'author': 'Ye Fan, Wang Runmeng, Liu Yanhong', 'orgName': '西南证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000296', 'orgSName': '西南证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEmWBS1OekYWBaDSIrkOupns=', 'researcher': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000263735', '11000418732', '11000440469'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEmWBS1OekYWBaDSIrkOupns=', 'site': 'Southwest Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '西南证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622320275_1.pdf?1708261970000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622320275_1.pdf?1708261970000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: Top management heavily supports the capital market, and overseas monetary policies attract attention', 'originalAuthor': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'originalContent': '一周大事记国内：中央汇金和证监会频发声，京深调整住房限购政策。2月5日，数据显示中国1月财新服务业PMI录得52.7%，低于上月0.2个百分点，后续随着天气转暖及政策发力，服务业景气度将仍持续向好；5日至6日，中美经济工作组在京举行第三次会议，达成三点重要共识，就两国宏观经济形势及政策、二十国集团财金合作、发展中国家债务、产业政策等议题进行了深入、坦诚、务实、建设性的交流；6日，中央汇金公司发布公告表示已于近日扩大ETF增持范围，同日消息称证监会上市司近日召开推动上市公司提升投资价值专题座谈会，从近期监管频繁发声可见近期市场下跌已引起高层的关注，活跃资本市场举措有望持续推出，有助于改善市场投资者的信心；同日，北京市住建委发布《关于调整通州区商品住房销售政策的通知》，7日深圳市住房和建设局发布《关于优化住房限购政策的通知》，政策有助于缓解房企融资问题，加快部分项目建设并托底房地产开发投资；7日，数据显示截至2024年1月末，我国外汇储备规模为32193亿美元，黄金储备连续第15个月增持，我国经济回升向好、长期向好的基本趋势没有改变，有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳定。海外：鲍威尔称将谨慎降息，OECD上调全球经济增长预期。当地时间2月5日，ISM公布的数据显示，美国服务业在经历了2023年底的接近停滞后，1月份显著反弹，上升至53.4%，从近期美国经济数据看，之前市场降息预期已过度，后续降息节奏和幅度预期或有修复；同日，OECD预计全球GDP增长将从2023年的3.1%放缓至2024年的2.9%（此前预计为2.7%），随着高利率滞后效应逐渐显现，2024年全球经济增长或将有所放缓；8日，日本央行副行长内田真一表示央行结束负利率后，金融市场环境将保持宽松，此后的任���政策行动都将是渐进式，上半年，日央行走向政策正常化的概率较高；当地时间7日，德国专注房地产投资的PBB在一份声明中表示，该行在2023年第四季度已增加贷款损失拨备，建议持续关注美国商业地产风险；当地时间2月6日，欧盟统计局公布数据显示，欧元区12月零售销售环比下降1.1%，不及预期，8日最新一期欧洲央行经济公报显示欧洲央行将继续遵循基于数据的方法来确定适当的限制水平和持续时间，预计欧洲央行的降息时点或在下半年。高频数据：上游：本周布伦特原油现货均价、铁矿石价格、阴极铜价周环比落1.4%、3.1%、1.34%；中游：螺纹钢价格周环比下降0.21%，水泥价格指数周环比下降0.81%，秦皇岛港动力煤平仓价周环比升0.53%；下游：商品房成交面积周环比回落47.78%，1月1-31日，乘用车零售同比去年同期增长58%；物价：蔬菜价格周环比上升9.71%，猪肉价格上升6.35%。下周重点关注：美国1月政府预算、1月核心CPI月率（周二）；欧元区第四季度季调后GDP年率（周三）；美国1月进口物价指数月率、零售销售年率、工业产出月率（周四）；美国1月新屋开工年化月率、1月PPI年率（周五）。风险提示：国内经济复苏不及预期，海外经济超预期下行。', 'content': 'Major domestic events of the week: Central Huijin and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have made frequent statements, and Beijing and Shenzhen have adjusted their housing purchase restriction policies. On February 5, data showed that China’s Caixin service industry PMI recorded 52.7% in January, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. As the weather gets warmer and policies are strengthened, the service industry boom will continue to improve; 5 From September 1 to 6, the China-U.S. Economic Working Group held its third meeting in Beijing and reached three important consensuses on the macroeconomic situation and policies of the two countries, G20 financial cooperation, debt of developing countries, industrial policy and other issues. conducted in-depth, candid, pragmatic and constructive exchanges; on the 6th, Central Huijin issued an announcement stating that it had recently expanded the scope of ETF holdings. On the same day, it was reported that the Listed Division of the China Securities Regulatory Commission had recently held a symposium on promoting listed companies to enhance their investment value. Frequent regulatory announcements in recent times indicate that the recent market decline has attracted high-level attention, and measures to activate the capital market are expected to continue to be introduced, which will help improve the confidence of market investors; on the same day, the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission issued the \"Notice on Adjusting Commercial Housing Sales Policies in Tongzhou District\" \", the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued the \"Notice on Optimizing the Housing Purchase Restriction Policy\" on the 7th. The policy will help alleviate the financing problems of real estate companies, speed up the construction of some projects and underpin real estate development investment; on the 7th, data shows that as of 2024 At the end of January, the scale of my country\\'s foreign exchange reserves was US$3.2193 billion, and gold reserves increased for the 15th consecutive month. The basic trend of my country\\'s economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed, which is conducive to maintaining the basic stability of the scale of foreign exchange reserves. Overseas: Powell said he would cut interest rates cautiously, and the OECD raised its global economic growth forecast. On February 5, local time, data released by ISM showed that after experiencing near stagnation at the end of 2023, the U.S. service industry rebounded significantly in January, rising to 53.4%. Judging from recent U.S. economic data, previous market expectations for interest rate cuts have been excessive. The pace and magnitude of subsequent interest rate cuts are expected to be restored; on the same day, the OECD predicts that global GDP growth will slow down from 3.1% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2024 (previously expected to be 2.7%). As the lagging effect of high interest rates gradually emerges, in 2024 Global economic growth may slow down in 2020; on the 8th, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi said that after the central bank ends negative interest rates, the financial market environment will remain loose, and any subsequent policy actions will be gradual. In the first half of the year, the Bank of Japan The probability of policy normalization is high; on the 7th local time, Germany\\'s PBB, which specializes in real estate investment, said in a statement that the bank had increased loan loss provisions in the fourth quarter of 2023 and recommended that it continue to pay attention to U.S. commercial real estate risks; On February 6, local time, Eurostat released data showing that retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 1.1% month-on-month in December, which was lower than expected. The latest ECB Economic Bulletin on the 8th showed that the ECB will continue to follow a data-based approach to determine appropriate Depending on the level and duration of restrictions, the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. High-frequency data: Upstream: The average spot price of Brent crude oil, iron ore price, and cathode copper price fell by 1.4%, 3.1%, and 1.34% week-on-week this week; midstream: the rebar price fell by 0.21% week-on-week, and the cement price index fell by 0.21% week-on-week. It fell 0.81% month-on-month, and the closing price of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port increased 0.53% week-on-week; downstream: the commercial housing transaction area fell 47.78% week-on-week. From January 1 to 31, the retail sales of passenger cars increased 58% year-on-year; prices: vegetables Prices increased by 9.71% week-on-week, and pork prices increased by 6.35%. Focus next week: the U.S. government budget in January, the core CPI monthly rate in January (Tuesday); the fourth quarter seasonally adjusted GDP annual rate in the Eurozone (Wednesday); the U.S. import price index monthly rate, retail sales annual rate, industrial production in January Month-on-month rate (Thursday); U.S. housing starts annualized monthly rate in January, annual PPI rate in January (Friday). Risk warning: The domestic economic recovery is less than expected, and the overseas economy is declining more than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('d3389991-b216-5572-82e3-6396ad6aed04'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8320593014359474, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '9TJH1EDQ2E3E06FP9LAFP62S63VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:20:47 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '9TJH1EDQ2E3E06FP9LAFP62S63VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('384d2808-4680-5449-9c23-89aadc5aad6f'), 'title': 'Comments on January inflation data: Inflation is low or there is no need to be pessimistic', 'author': 'Cheng Qiang', 'orgName': '德邦证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000217', 'orgSName': '德邦证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEmp7TXMC4qhIeVfb9yU9/t4=', 'researcher': '程强', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000296632'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEmp7TXMC4qhIeVfb9yU9/t4=', 'site': 'Debon Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '德邦证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622320258_1.pdf?1708256237000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622320258_1.pdf?1708256237000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on January inflation data: Inflation is low or there is no need to be pessimistic', 'originalAuthor': '程强', 'originalContent': '核心观点：春节错位和基数因素导致通胀低位，2月起CPI同比有望迎来回升。1月CPI同比创2009年9月以来新低，但主要是受春节时点错位和去年同期防疫优化后短期高基数的影响，从物价的结构来看，耐用消费品价格环比基本走出去年大幅低于中枢水平的阶段，旅游价格环比也高于2018-2022年同期均值，1月油价的高频数据也比CPI燃料项环比降幅更低，商品和服务消费需求可能并没有通胀数据显示的疲软，随着春节假期到来和基数走低，预计2月起CPI同比有望迎来回升。CPI：1月CPI同比下降0.8%，创2009年9月以来新低；环比上升0.3%。1月CPI同比-0.8%，前值-0.3%，环比0.3%，前值0.1%。具体来看，食品项同比-5.9%，前值-3.7%；非食品项同比0.4%，前值0.5%；消费品项同比-1.7%，前值-1.1%；服务项同比0.5%，前值1.0%。环比方面，食品项环比0.4%，前值0.9%；非食品项环比0.2%，前值-0.1%；消费品项环比0.2%，前值0.1%；服务项环比0.4%，前值0.1%。扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比0.4%，前值0.6%，环比0.3%，前值0.1%。食品：春节错位和高基数两大因素导致食品价格较弱，拖累整体CPI低位。1月CPI食品项同比-5.9%，前值-3.7%；环比0.4%，前值0.9%。具体来看，猪肉方面，CPI猪肉项同比下跌17.3%，降幅较上月收窄8.8个百分点，环比下跌0.2%，降幅较上月收窄0.8个百分点。1月猪肉价格继续低位运行，自上一轮生猪补库（2020年下半年-2021年上半年）后，能繁母猪存栏保持相对稳定，供给充足，对应猪肉价格多数时期缺乏涨价动力，去年1月猪肉价格从上一轮涨价阶段回落至低位，基数走低导致1月CPI猪肉项同比降幅收窄，而春节错位、年货需求后置则导致1月CPI猪肉项环比仍小幅下行。除猪肉外，牛肉、羊肉等其他畜肉类分项1月环比也分别降幅扩大或由升转降。此外受寒潮天气对生产和运输环节的影响，鲜菜价格环比继上月上涨6.9%后延续上涨3.8%，食品项拖累CPI同比约1.13个百分点、拉动CPI环比约0.08个百分点。1月食品项拖累CPI同比的情况较为少见，除今年外，根据统计局口径仅2022年1月出现过，且今年1.13个百分点的拖累程度也大于2022年的0.72个百分点；今年1月食品项对CPI环比拉动幅度在统计局口径中也是历年最低水平，食品整体涨价动力较弱，一是春节错位导致今年年货购置需求或延后到1月底2月初，二是去年1月正值防疫优化初期，居民消费意愿集中释放，食品涨价动力强形成一定高基数影响。猪肉、鲜菜和鲜果合计影响CPI下降约0.78个百分点，占CPI同比降幅90%以上，是1月CPI同比下降的主要因素。非食品：油价拖累非食品价格，商品和服务价格并不算弱。1月CPI非食品项同比0.4%，前值0.5%，环比0.2%，前值-0.1%。（1）能源：统计时点差异导致高频与低频、国内与国际油价涨跌不完全匹配。1月指征能源价格的CPI交通通信分项中的燃料项同比下跌0.1%，上月同比下跌1.4%；环比下跌1.0%，上月环比下跌4.5%。受国际油价波动影响，统计局口径1月国内汽油价格下跌1.0%，从高频数据观察，1月92#和95#汽油价格环比分别下跌0.14%和0.12%，1月布伦特原油价格上涨3.05%，CPI燃料项降幅大于92#和95#汽油高频价格降幅或是由于物价统计采样有固定时点，统计局采样时点与高频完整月份时点差异可能导致整体结果有所差异；国内油价与国际油价走势差异或是由于国内油价跟随国际油价变动有一定的滞后，或同样是统计的时点差异所导致。在非食品项目中，燃料项环比下跌幅度最大；（2）消费品：地产销售季节性和二手房交易较多导致家用器具涨价明显，其他耐用品价格下跌。1月CPI消费品分项同比-1.7%，前值-1.1%。三大耐用品价格环比走势分化，其中，家用器具分项环比0.6%，超过近五年1月的环比变化区间（-0.3%，0.2%），或受地产销售的季节性特征影响，12月是地产销售的旺季，2023年12月30城新房销售面积为2023年下半年单月最高，且2023年地产销售结构上呈现二手房销量较好的特征，2023年12月14城二手房销售面积同比增加了33%，销售面积接近疫情前的2019年同期水平，14城二手房+30城新房销售面积同比增加了1.9%，二手房交易升温也带来了增量的家具更新、重置需求；通信工具分项环比-0.3%，上月异于历年同期的大幅上涨未能延续，或为偶然因素；交通工具分项价格环比基本稳定，去年2月以来交通工具分项环比持续下跌，去年下半年的车企降价潮更是加剧了价格竞争程度，1月交通工具分项价格环比降幅收窄至0.1%，但仍低于近年中枢水平，价格竞争影响或接近尾声。从高频数据来看，1月义乌小商品总价格指数月均值较上月下降0.36，其中，电子电器类月均值较上月下降0.34、首饰类月均值较上月上升0.24、日用类月均值较上月下降0.50，服装服饰品类月均值较上月下降0.01。（3）服务：高基数导致服务价格同环比走势背离，环比向好是更重要的信号。1月CPI服务分项同比0.5%，前值1.0%，环比0.4%，前值0.1%。其中旅游分项与服务分项呈现一致的环比涨幅扩大但同比降幅收窄的特征，这也是受到了春节时点错位和去年1月疫情防控优化之初居民出行需求集中释放的影响，去年1月旅游价格同比涨幅高达11.2%。旅游价格同环比走势的背离中环比涨幅扩大是更重要的信号，4.2%的环比涨幅高于2018-2022年（排除掉防疫优化扰动下的2023年1月）1月旅游分项环比中枢的3.92%水平，飞机票价格环比上涨12.1%也能够反映出1月出行需求有所增加。PPI：生产淡季中部分原材料和加工工业价格走弱，寒潮气候下取暖需求支撑公用事业行业涨价。1月PPI同比-2.5%，前值-2.7%；环比-0.2%，前值-0.3%。其中，生产资料价格同比-3.0%，前值-3.0%，环比0.1%，前值0.5%；生活资料价格同比-3.0%，前值-3.3%，环比-0.2%，前值-0.3%。1月低温寒潮频发，取暖需求支撑采掘工业PPI环比上涨0.2%（前值-1.1%）；国内部分行业进入传统生产淡季，原材料和加工工业PPI环比分别下跌0.2%（前值-0.5%）和0.3%（前值-0.2%）。从产业链来看，PPI环比涨价的主要是黑色、有色产业链和供热等公用事业，环比跌价的主要是下游消费品制造业，这与春节错位的逻辑是一致的。钢材节前补库需求增加支撑了黑色产业链价格上涨，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨0.4%。生产淡季中化工产品、水泥等工业品需求偏弱，化学原料和化学制品制��业价格下降1.1%，非金属矿物制品业价格下降0.6%。后续价格形势展望：春节时点错位和高基数是CPI超预期走弱的主要原因，2月起CPI同比有望迎来回升。1月CPI同比创2009年9月以来新低，但主要是受春节时点错位和去年同期防疫优化后短期高基数的影响，从物价的结构来看，耐用消费品价格环比基本走出去年大幅低于中枢水平的阶段，旅游价格环比也高于2018-2022年同期均值，1月油价的高频数据也比CPI燃料项降幅更低，商品和服务消费需求可能并没有通胀数据显示的疲软，随着春节假期到来和基数走低，预计2月起CPI同比有望迎来回升。风险提示：国际原油价格波动；猪肉等食品价格波动；稳增长政策对内需的拉动效果强弱具有不确定性。', 'content': '核心观点：春节错位和基数因素导致通胀低位，2月起CPI同比有望迎来回升。1月CPI同比创2009年9月以来新低，但主要是受春节时点错位和去年同期防疫优化后短期高基数的影响，从物价的结构来看，耐用消费品价格环比基本走出去年大幅低于中枢水平的阶段，旅游价格环比也高于2018-2022年同期均值，1月油价的高频数据也比CPI燃料项环比降幅更低，商品和服务消费需求可能并没有通胀数据显示的疲软，随着春节假期到来和基数走低，预计2月起CPI同比有望迎来回升。CPI：1月CPI同比下降0.8%，创2009年9月以来新低；环比上升0.3%。1月CPI同比-0.8%，前值-0.3%，环比0.3%，前值0.1%。具体来看，食品项同比-5.9%，前值-3.7%；非食品项同比0.4%，前值0.5%；消费品项同比-1.7%，前值-1.1%；服务项同比0.5%，前值1.0%。环比方面，食品项环比0.4%，前值0.9%；非食品项环比0.2%，前值-0.1%；消费品项环比0.2%，前值0.1%；服务项环比0.4%，前值0.1%。扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比0.4%，前值0.6%，环比0.3%，前值0.1%。食品：春节错位和高基数两大因素导致食品价格较弱，拖累整体CPI低位。1月CPI食品项同比-5.9%，前值-3.7%；环比0.4%，前值0.9%。具体来看，猪肉方面，CPI猪肉项同比下跌17.3%，降幅较上月收窄8.8个百分点，环比下跌0.2%，降幅较上月收窄0.8个百分点。1月猪肉价格继续低位运行，自上一轮生猪补库（2020年下半年-2021年上半年）后，能繁母猪存栏保持相对稳定，供给充足，对应猪肉价格多数时期缺乏涨价动力，去年1月猪肉价格从上一轮涨价阶段回落至低位，基数走低导致1月CPI猪肉项同比降幅收窄，而春节错位、年货需求后置则导致1月CPI猪肉项环比仍小幅下行。除猪肉外，牛肉、羊肉等其他畜肉类分项1月环比也分别降幅扩大或由升转降。此外受寒潮天气对生产和运输环节的影响，鲜菜价格环比继上月上涨6.9%后延续上涨3.8%，食品项拖累CPI同比约1.13个百分点、拉动CPI环比约0.08个百分点。1月食品项拖累CPI同比的情况较为少见，除今年外，根据统计局口径仅2022年1月出现过，且今年1.13个百分点的拖累程度也大于2022年的0.72个百分点；今年1月食品项对CPI环比拉动幅度在统计局口径中也是历年最低水平，食品整体涨价动力较弱，一是春节错位导致今年年货购置需求或延后到1月底2月初，二是去年1月正值防疫优化初期，居民消费意愿集中释放，食品涨价动力强形成一定高基数影响。猪肉、鲜菜和鲜果合计影响CPI下降约0.78个百分点，占CPI同比降幅90%以上，是1月CPI同比下降的主要因素。非食品：油价拖累非食品价格，商品和服务价格并不算弱。1月CPI非食品项同比0.4%，前值0.5%，环比0.2%，前值-0.1%。（1）能源：统计时点差异导致高频与低频、国内与国际油价涨跌不完全匹配。1月指征能源价格的CPI交通通信分项中的燃料项同比下跌0.1%，上月同比下跌1.4%；环比下跌1.0%，上月环比下跌4.5%。受国际油价波动影响，统计局口径1月国内汽油价格下跌1.0%，从高频数据观察，1月92#和95#汽油价格环比分别下跌0.14%和0.12%，1月布伦特原油价格上涨3.05%，CPI燃料项降幅大于92#和95#汽油高频价格降幅或是由于物价统计采样有固定时点，统计局采样时点与高频完整月份时点差异可能导致整体结果有所差异；国内油价与国际油价走势差异或是由于国内油价跟随国际油价变动有一定的滞后，或同样是统计的时点差异所导致。在非食品项目中，燃料项环比下跌幅度最大；（2）消费品：地产销售季节性和二手房交易较多导致家用器具涨价明显，其他耐用品价格下跌。1月CPI消费品分项同比-1.7%，前值-1.1%。三大耐用品价格环比走势分化，其中，家用器具分项环比0.6%，超过近五年1月的环比变化区间（-0.3%，0.2%），或受地产销售的季节性特征影响，12月是地���销售的旺季，2023年12月30城新房销售面积为2023年下半年单月最高，且2023年地产销售结构上呈现二手房销量较好的特征，2023年12月14城二手房销售面积同比增加了33%，销售面积接近疫情前的2019年同期水平，14城二手房+30城新房销售面积同比增加了1.9%，二手房交易升温也带来了增量的家具更新、重置需求；通信工具分项环比-0.3%，上月异于历年同期的大幅上涨未能延续，或为偶然因素；交通工具分项价格环比基本稳定，去年2月以来交通工具分项环比持续下跌，去年下半年的车企降价潮更是加剧了价格竞争程度，1月交通工具分项价格环比降幅收窄至0.1%，但仍低于近年中枢水平，价格竞争影响或接近尾声。从高频数据来看，1月义乌小商品总价格指数月均值较上月下降0.36，其中，电子电器类月均值较上月下降0.34、首饰类月均值较上月上升0.24、日用类月均值较上月下降0.50，服装服饰品类月均值较上月下降0.01。（3）服务：高基数导致服务价格同环比走势背离，环比向好是更重要的信号。1月CPI服务分项同比0.5%，前值1.0%，环比0.4%，前值0.1%。其中旅游分项与服务分项呈现一致的环比涨幅扩大但同比降幅收窄的特征，这也是受到了春节时点错位和去年1月疫情防控优化之初居民出行需求集中释放的影响，去年1月旅游价格同比涨幅高达11.2%。旅游价格同环比走势的背离中环比涨幅扩大是更重要的信号，4.2%的环比涨幅高于2018-2022年（排除掉防疫优化扰动下的2023年1月）1月旅游分项环比中枢的3.92%水平，飞机票价格环比上涨12.1%也能够反映出1月出行需求有所增加。PPI：生产淡季中部分原材料和加工工业价格走弱，寒潮气候下取暖需求支撑公用事业行业涨价。1月PPI同比-2.5%，前值-2.7%；环比-0.2%，前值-0.3%。其中，生产资料价格同比-3.0%，前值-3.0%，环比0.1%，前值0.5%；生活资料价格同比-3.0%，前值-3.3%，环比-0.2%，前值-0.3%。1月低温寒潮频发，取暖需求支撑采掘工业PPI环比上涨0.2%（前值-1.1%）；国内部分行业进入传统生产淡季，原材料和加工工业PPI环比分别下跌0.2%（前值-0.5%）和0.3%（前值-0.2%）。从产业链来看，PPI环比涨价的主要是黑色、有色产业链和供热等公用事业，环比跌价的主要是下游消费品制造业，这与春节错位的逻辑是一致的。钢材节前补库需求增加支撑了黑色产业链价格上涨，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨0.4%。生产淡季中化工产品、水泥等工业品需求偏弱，化学原料和化学制品制造业价格下降1.1%，非金属矿物制品业价格下降0.6%。后续价格形势展望：春节时点错位和高基数是CPI超预期走弱的主要原因，2月起CPI同比有望迎来回升。1月CPI同比创2009年9月以来新低，但主要是受春节时点错位和去年同期防疫优化后短期高基数的影响，从物价的结构来看，耐用消费品价格环比基本走出去年大幅低于中枢水平的阶段，旅游价格环比也高于2018-2022年同期均值，1月油价的高频数据也比CPI燃料项降幅更低，商品和服务消费需求可能并没有通胀数据显示的疲软，随着春节假期到来和基数走低，预计2月起CPI同比有望迎来回升。风险提示：国际原油价格波动；猪肉等食品价格波动；稳增长政策对内需的拉动效果强弱具有不确定性。', 'authorid': UUID('a2700561-8738-5acf-b44a-342784ba77a6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.006380483508110046, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'HJ6SCM8QOV6C4SB0KDKCG6B7PVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:20:53 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'HJ6SCM8QOV6C4SB0KDKCG6B7PVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "IncompleteRead(8554 bytes read, 36559 more expected)\n", - "{'id': UUID('ef978e70-1d1e-5883-934a-2c1182f57083'), 'title': 'Price Comments in January 2024: Prices are low due to the “dislocation” of the Spring Festival', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Ma Jieying', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEjM4DdcWq3Z2/nx3pn9p3rg=', 'researcher': '赵伟,马洁莹', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000342031'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEjM4DdcWq3Z2/nx3pn9p3rg=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622320202_1.pdf?1708261864000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622320202_1.pdf?1708261864000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Price Comments in January 2024: Prices are low due to the “dislocation” of the Spring Festival', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,马洁莹', 'originalContent': '事件：2月8日，统计局公布1月物价数据：CP同比下降0.8%，预期降0.5%，前值降0.3%；PPI同比下降2.5%，预期降2.5%，前值降2.7%。CPI通胀率依然偏弱、主因春节“错位”下的高基数拖累等CPI通胀率进一步回落，主因春节“错位”的高基数拖累。1月，CPI同比增速-0.8%、较上月回落0.5个百分点，其中，翘尾因素拖累1.1个百分点，新涨价因素贡献0.3个百分点。结构中，食品环比涨幅收窄0.5个百分点至0.4%、低于近10年春节前一个月环比均值的0.6%；非食品环比由降转涨至0.2%、略高于季节性水平。拆分来看，食品价格低位受部分商品供给扰动，非食品边际回升与服务价格修复等有关。一方面，猪肉、鲜菜和鲜果供应充足、价格低位，合计影响CPI下降约0.78个百分点；另一方面，年底假期出行、家庭服务需求增加，带动服务价格边际改善，1月CPI服务环比0.4%、高于近10年春节前一个月均值的0.37%。往后来看，2024年物价相对温和，伴随基数拖累逐步减弱、春节“效应”等，2月CPI或回升至阶段性高点、0.4%左右；二、三季度相对温和、0.2%附近震荡；四季度后，CPI同比增速或逐步回升至1.2%左右。温和通胀环境，或较难成为债市的核心矛盾，后续可重点跟踪政策与基本面变化等（详情参见《温和通胀的微观基础？》）。2024年PPI同比增速延续修复通道，年中前后转正，全年中枢或在0.2%左右。原材料等生产资料拖累最大阶段或已过去，伴随需求边际修复或支撑部分商品涨价、弹性还待观察；外需偏弱、叠加部分供给扰动等，原油链涨价弹性或相对较弱，或向部分国内工业品传导。中性情景下，PPI同比高点或在三季度、1.5%左右。常规跟踪：CPI同比增速仍处负值区间，PPI降幅收窄、与生产资料价格边际修复等有关CPI同比增速仍处负值区间。1月，CPI同比增速-0.8%，环比涨幅扩大0.2个百分点至0.3%；核心CPI同比回落0.2个百分点至0.4%。分项环比中，食品环比涨幅收窄，其中，猪肉、鲜果环比分别为-0.2%和-0.5%；非食品环比由降转涨，其中，交通通信环比由降转涨至0.1%，文教娱、其他商品服务环比涨幅分别扩大0.6和0.8个百分点。PPI同比降幅收窄、主因生产资料支撑。1月，PPI同比降幅收窄0.2个百分点至-2.5%，环比降幅收窄0.1个百分点至-0.2%。大类环比中，生产资料环比降幅收窄0.1个百分点，除加工工业外，采掘、原材料均有改善；生活资料环比降幅扩大0.1个百分点、主因耐用消费品拖累，食品、一般日用品环比有所回升。分行业来看，受国际大宗商品价格波动、国内部分行业生产淡季等影响，部分中下游制造业价格回落。行业环比中，食品制造、非金属制造、通信制造环比分别为-1.7%、-0.6%和-0.3%；石油加工、黑色冶炼等上游延续回升，环比分别为1.4%和2.3%，纺织服装、汽车制造、酒饮料等行业环比持平。风险提示猪价大幅反弹，疫情反复。', 'content': 'Event: On February 8, the Bureau of Statistics released January price data: CP fell by 0.8% year-on-year, expected to fall by 0.5%, and the previous value fell by 0.3%; PPI fell by 2.5% year-on-year, and was expected to fall by 2.5%, and the previous value fell by 2.7%. The CPI inflation rate is still weak, mainly due to the high base dragged down by the \"misplaced\" Spring Festival. The CPI inflation rate has further fallen, mainly due to the high base dragged down by the \"misplaced\" Spring Festival. In January, the year-on-year CPI growth rate was -0.8%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the tail-off factor dragged down 1.1 percentage points, and the new price increase factors contributed 0.3 percentage points. In terms of structure, the month-on-month growth rate of food narrowed by 0.5 percentage points to 0.4%, lower than the 0.6% month-on-month average in the month before the Spring Festival in the past 10 years; the month-on-month growth rate of non-food increased from a decrease to 0.2%, slightly higher than the seasonal level. Broken down, the low food prices are disturbed by the supply of some commodities, and the marginal rebound in non-food prices is related to the repair of service prices. On the one hand, the supply of pork, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits is sufficient and the prices are low, which collectively affects the CPI to fall by about 0.78 percentage points; on the other hand, the increase in demand for travel and household services during the year-end holidays has led to a marginal improvement in service prices, and the CPI service price in January was 0.4% month-on-month. , higher than the average of 0.37% in the month before the Spring Festival in the past 10 years. Looking forward, prices will be relatively mild in 2024. With the gradual weakening of the base drag and the \"effect\" of the Spring Festival, the CPI in February may rise to a stage high of around 0.4%; the second and third quarters will be relatively mild, fluctuating around 0.2%; After the quarter, the year-on-year CPI growth rate may gradually rebound to around 1.2%. A mild inflation environment may be less likely to become the core contradiction of the bond market. In the future, we can focus on tracking changes in policies and fundamentals (for details, see \"The Micro-Basics of Mild Inflation?\"). In 2024, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will continue to recover, turn positive around the middle of the year, and may center around 0.2% for the whole year. The biggest drag on production materials such as raw materials may have passed. With the marginal recovery of demand or the support for price increases of some commodities, the elasticity remains to be seen. Weak external demand, superimposed some supply disturbances, etc., the price elasticity of the crude oil chain may be relatively weak, or may increase to some parts. Domestic industrial product transmission. Under the neutral scenario, the year-on-year high of PPI may be around 1.5% in the third quarter. Regular tracking: The year-on-year CPI growth rate is still in the negative range, the PPI decline has narrowed, and the year-on-year CPI growth rate related to the marginal repair of the price of production materials is still in the negative range. In January, the CPI growth rate was -0.8% year-on-year, and the month-on-month increase expanded by 0.2 percentage points to 0.3%; the core CPI fell by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 0.4%. Among the sub-items, the month-on-month growth rate of food narrowed, among which, pork and fresh fruits increased by -0.2% and -0.5% respectively; non-food increased from a decrease to a month-on-month, among which, transportation and communications increased from a decrease to 0.1%, and culture, education and entertainment increased by 0.1%. The month-on-month growth rates of , other goods and services expanded by 0.6 and 0.8 percentage points respectively. The year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed, mainly due to support from production materials. In January, the year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed by 0.2 percentage points to -2.5%, and the month-on-month decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points to -0.2%. Among the major categories, the month-on-month decrease in the means of production narrowed by 0.1 percentage points. Except for the processing industry, extraction and raw materials improved. The month-on-month decrease in the means of living expanded by 0.1 percentage points, mainly due to the drag of durable consumer goods, while food and general daily necessities rebounded month-on-month. From an industry perspective, affected by fluctuations in international commodity prices and the off-season production of some domestic industries, prices in some midstream and downstream manufacturing industries have fallen. In the industry chain, food manufacturing, non-metal manufacturing, and communication manufacturing were -1.7%, -0.6%, and -0.3% respectively; oil processing, ferrous smelting, and other upstream sectors continued to rebound, with month-on-month sales of 1.4% and 2.3% respectively. Textile and apparel, Industries such as automobile manufacturing and alcoholic beverages were flat month-on-month. Risks suggest that pig prices have rebounded sharply and the epidemic has recurred.', 'authorid': UUID('65b4787f-7726-5182-b084-4d4dd0fd8474'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9656797982752323, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3LMQDEU4F9IL6FR5Q193GI8K4FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:22:17 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3LMQDEU4F9IL6FR5Q193GI8K4FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9d87d29c-1330-5ec5-ab2d-49d1a1dd39e5'), 'title': 'Comments on inflation data in January 2024: The base drives CPI downward, but there is no need to be pessimistic', 'author': 'Ye Fan, Wang Runmeng, Liu Yanhong', 'orgName': '西南证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000296', 'orgSName': '西南证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEpToCBwntq1F5TtuWdKY8BE=', 'researcher': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000263735', '11000418732', '11000440469'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEpToCBwntq1F5TtuWdKY8BE=', 'site': 'Southwest Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '西南证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622320220_1.pdf?1708262182000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622320220_1.pdf?1708262182000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on inflation data in January 2024: The base drives CPI downward, but there is no need to be pessimistic', 'originalAuthor': '叶凡,王润梦,刘彦宏', 'originalContent': '点评春节错位效应下，CPI同比降幅扩大。同比来看，2024年1月，由于受到春节错位的影响，高基数下CPI同比降幅扩大0.5个百分点至-0.8%。其中，食品价格是主要的拖累项，食品CPI同比降幅较上月扩大2.2个百分点至-5.9%，影响CPI下降约1.13个百分点，非食品价格同比涨幅小幅收敛0.1个百分点至0.4%，影响CPI上涨约0.32个百分点；环比来看，在春节效应影响下，1月CPI环比上涨0.3%，已连续两个月上涨，涨幅扩大0.2个百分点。其中，食品价格环比涨幅收敛0.5个百分点至0.4%，影响CPI上涨约0.08个百分点，在节日出行需求带动下，非食品价格环比由下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%，影响CPI上涨约0.19个百分点。1月，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.4%，涨幅较上月收敛0.2个百分点，但环比上涨0.3%，涨幅与近十年同期平均水平相当。猪肉价格同比降幅收敛，鲜菜鲜果价格同比大幅下降。同比来看，2024年1月食品细项中除粮食、卷烟类价格同比上升外，其余食品类价格同比均下降。鲜菜价格同比增速下滑最多，其次是鲜果、水产品等价格，而畜肉类价格同比降幅有所收敛。其中，畜肉类价格同比降幅收窄4.3个百分点至-11.6%，1月猪肉价格表现依然较为低迷，但由于基数走低，猪肉价格同比降幅收敛8.8个百分点至-17.3%；1月鲜菜价格呈季节性上行态势，但由于去年同期基数升高，鲜菜价格同比由上涨0.5%转为大幅下降12.7%；1月水果价格小幅走低，叠加基数效应，鲜果价格同比降幅扩大8.8个百分点至-9.1%。环比来看，天气和节日临近双重因素作用下，鲜菜、水产品和卷烟类价格环比上行。其中，季节性因素下，鲜菜价格环比上涨3.8%，涨幅较上月收敛3.1个百分点；由于部分高端水果供给增多，带动鲜果价格小幅走低，鲜果价格环比由上涨1.7%转为下降0.5%；由于猪肉供给依然较为充足，猪价仍在低位震荡，环比下降0.2%但降幅较上月继续收敛0.8个百分点。但由于春节前是猪肉销售旺季，1月下旬生猪价格开始环比上涨，2月初生猪价格已超过2022和2023年同期水平。此外，由于气温降低，蔬菜价格可能继续延续季节性上涨的趋势。截至2024年2月7日，高频数据显示2月初猪肉平均批发价、28种重点监测蔬菜同比由下降转为上涨，7种重点监测水果价格和鸡蛋平均批发价同比降幅收敛；28种重点监测蔬菜、7种重点监测水果价格环比涨幅均扩大，猪肉和鸡蛋平均批发价环比由下降转为上涨。2024年2月，预计在春节效应带动下主要食品类别价格将呈现上行的趋势，再加上春节错位的影响，去年2月基数较低，食品CPI同比有望由下降转为上涨，支撑物价回升。春节临近服务需求增多，但同比受基数拖累。2024年1月，非食品中消费品价格同比降幅扩大0.6个百分点至-1.7%，服务价格同比涨幅收敛0.5个百分点至0.5%。其中，七大类价格同比六涨一降，衣着、生活用品及服务同比增速上升，居住、其他用品及服务同比增速持平，其余分项增速均不同程度回落。交通工具用燃料价格同比降幅收敛1.3个百分点至-0.1%；节前服务需求增多，家政服务和其他家庭服务价格分别上涨3.5%和2.4%，涨幅均有扩大；而在基数影响下，旅游价格同比涨幅收敛5个百分点至1.8%。七大类价格环比五涨一平一降，受国际油价变动影响，国内汽油价格下降1.0%，但降幅有所收敛；春节前出行活动增多，旅游价格环比上涨4.2%，涨幅扩大4.1个百分点，飞机票和旅游价格分别上涨12.1%和4.2%，合计影响CPI上涨约0.10个百分点；节前服务需求带动家政服务、美发和母婴护理服务价格分别上涨4.8%、4.6%和1.5%。由于国际油价上涨，据国家发改委，从1月31日24时起，国内汽、柴油每吨分别上调200元和200元，或带动交通工具用燃料价格升高。在低基数影响下，旅游等服务价格同比或有所回升。预计非食品价格短期温和上行。PPI同比降幅收敛，主要受生产资料价格支撑。1月国际油价自底部温和回升，但国内部分行业进入传统生产淡季，2024年1月PPI同比降幅较2023年12月收窄0.2个百分点至-2.5%，持平于市场预期。其中，生产资料同比降幅较上月收敛0.3个百分点至-3.0%，生活资料价格同比降幅较上月收敛0.1个百分点至-1.1%。主要行业中，石油和天然气开采业价格由上月下降1.6%转为上涨3.4%；有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月��大0.2个百分点；化学原料和化学制品制造业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业、石油和天然气开采业价格降幅均有收窄；但非金属矿物制品业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、汽车制造业、医药制造业价格降幅不同程度扩大。从环比看，PPI下降0.2%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。其中，生产资料价格下降0.2%，降幅收窄0.1个百分点；生活资料价格下降0.2%，降幅扩大0.1个百分点。受国际市场原油、有色金属等大宗商品价格波动影响，国内石油和天然气开采业价格下降0.8%，石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业价格下降1.7%，降幅均有收窄；有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨0.3%；钢材节前补库需求增加，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨0.4%；部分地区采暖需求增加，煤炭开采和洗选业价格微涨0.1%；化工产品、水泥等工业品需求偏弱，化学原料和化学制品制造业价格下降1.1%，非金属矿物制品业价格下降0.6%；锂离子电池制造、计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业、汽车制造业价格环比走低。从国际上看，虽然OPEC继续削减原油产量支撑油价但非OPEC国家的原油供应增加，但同时全球经济基本面并未如预期般大幅走弱，1月全球制造业PMI为49.3%，较2023年12月上升1.3个百分点，而且IMF最新预测2024年全球经济增长3.1%，高于去年10月份预测的2.9%，加之全球原油目前仍处于低库存状态，预计短期油价呈震荡偏强走势。从国内来看，稳增长政策力度不减，有望支撑国内相关工业品价格，而春节假期效应可能对部分工业品价格有所扰动，预计短期PPI同比走势平稳，但在春节后金三银四需求有望逐渐释放。预计CPI同比回升，PPI同比走势平稳。2024年1月，CPI继续高于PPI，CPI-PPI剪刀差较2023年12月收敛至1.7个百分点。CPI方面，在1月份-0.8%的CPI同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-1.1个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为0.3个百分点。节日消费有望带动猪肉价格回升，鲜菜价格也有望延续季节性上行态势，叠加春节错位所带来的低基数效应，食品CPI同比有望转为上涨，成品油价格再度上调，旅游等服务价格在低基数下有望回升，预计非食品价格短期温和上行。综合来看2月份CPI同比有望回升至0以上；PPI方面，在1月份-2.5%的PPI同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-2.3个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为-0.2个百分点。国际油价短期或震荡偏强，春节效应或对部分工业品价格存在一定扰动，预计PPI同比走势平稳。风险提示：需求复苏不及预期、国际大宗商品价格波动超预期。', 'content': '点评春节错位效应下，CPI同比降幅扩大。同比来看，2024年1月，由于受到春节错位的影响，高基数下CPI同比降幅扩大0.5个百分点至-0.8%。其中，食品价格是主要的拖累项，食品CPI同比降幅较上月扩大2.2个百分点至-5.9%，影响CPI下降约1.13个百分点，非食品价格同比涨幅小幅收敛0.1个百分点至0.4%，影响CPI上涨约0.32个百分点；环比来看，在春节效应影响下，1月CPI环比上涨0.3%，已连续两个月上涨，涨幅扩大0.2个百分点。其中，食品价格环比涨幅收敛0.5个百分点至0.4%，影响CPI上涨约0.08个百分点，在节日出行需求带动下，非食品价格环比由下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%，影响CPI上涨约0.19个百分点。1月，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.4%，涨幅较上月收敛0.2个百分点，但环比上涨0.3%，涨幅与近十年同期平均水平相当。猪肉价格同比降幅收敛，鲜菜鲜果价格同比大幅下降。同比来看，2024年1月食品细项中除粮食、卷烟类价格同比上升外，其余食品类价格同比均下降。鲜菜价格同比增速下滑最多，其次是鲜果、水产品等价格，而畜肉类价格同比降幅有所收敛。其中，畜肉类价格同比降幅收窄4.3个百分点至-11.6%，1月猪肉价格表现依然较为低迷，但由于基数走低，猪肉价格同比降幅收敛8.8个百分点至-17.3%；1月鲜菜价格呈季节性上行态势，但由于去年同期基数升高，鲜菜价格同比由上涨0.5%转为大幅下降12.7%；1月水果价格小幅走低，叠加基数效应，鲜果价格同比降幅扩大8.8个百分点至-9.1%。环比来看，天气和节日临近双重因素作用下，鲜菜、水产品和卷烟类价格环比上行。其中，季节性因素下，鲜菜价格环比上涨3.8%，涨幅较上月收敛3.1个百分点；由于部分高端水果供给增多，带动鲜果价格小幅走低，鲜果价格环比由上涨1.7%转为下降0.5%；由于猪肉供给依然较为充足，猪价仍在低位震荡，环比下降0.2%但降幅较上月继续收敛0.8个百分点。但由于春节前是猪肉销售旺季，1月下旬生猪价格开始环比上涨，2月初生猪价格已超过2022和2023年同期水平。此外，由于气温降低，蔬菜价格可能继续延续季节性上涨的趋势。截至2024年2月7日，高频数据显示2月初猪肉平均批发价、28种重点监测蔬菜同比由下降转为上涨，7种重点监测水果价格和鸡蛋平均批发价同比降幅收敛；28种重点监测蔬菜、7种重点监测水果价格环比涨幅均扩大，猪肉和鸡蛋平均批发价环比由下降转为上涨。2024年2月，预计在春节效应带动下主要食品类别价格将呈现上行的趋势，再加上春节错位的影响，去年2月基数较低，食品CPI同比有望由下降转为上涨，支撑物价回升。春节临近服务需求增多，但同比受基数拖累。2024年1月，非食品中消费品价格同比降幅扩大0.6个百分点至-1.7%，服务价格同比涨幅收敛0.5个百分点至0.5%。其中，七大类价格同比六涨一降，衣着、生活用品及服务同比增速上升，居住、其他用品及服务同比增速持平，其余分项增速均不同程度回落。交通工具用燃料价格同比降幅收敛1.3个百分点至-0.1%；节前服务需求增多，家政服务和其他家庭服务价格分别上涨3.5%和2.4%，涨幅均有扩大；而在基数影响下，旅游价格同比涨幅收敛5个百分点至1.8%。七大类价格环比五涨一平一降，受国际油价变动影响，国内汽油价格下降1.0%，但降幅有所收敛；春节前出行活动增多，旅游价格环比上涨4.2%，涨幅扩大4.1个百分点，飞机票和旅游价格分别上涨12.1%和4.2%，合计影响CPI上涨约0.10个百分点；节前服务需求带动家政服务、美发和母婴护理服务价格分别上涨4.8%、4.6%和1.5%。由于国际油价上涨，据国家发改委，从1月31日24时起，国内汽、柴油每吨分别上调200元和200元，或带动交通工具用燃料价格升高。在低基数影响下，旅游等服务价格同比或有所回升。预计非食品价格短期温和上行。PPI同比降幅收敛，主要受生产资料价格支撑。1月国际油价自底部温和回升，但国内部分行业进入传统生产淡季，2024年1月PPI同比降幅较2023年12月收窄0.2个百分点至-2.5%，持平于市场预期。其中，生产资料同比降幅较上月收敛0.3个百分点至-3.0%，生活资料价格同比降幅较上月收敛0.1个百分点至-1.1%。主要行业中，石油和天然气开采业价格由上月下降1.6%转为上涨3.4%；有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点；化学原料和化学制品制造业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业、石油和天然气开采业价格降幅均有收窄；但非金属矿物制品业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、汽车制造业、医药制造业价格降幅不同程度扩大。从环比看，PPI下降0.2%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。其中，生产资料价格下降0.2%，降幅收窄0.1个百分点；生活资料价格下降0.2%，降幅扩大0.1个百分点。受国际市场原油、有色金属等大宗商品价格波动影响，国内石油和天然气开采业价格下降0.8%，石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业价格下降1.7%，降幅均有收窄；有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨0.3%；钢材节前补库需求增加，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨0.4%；部分地区采暖需求增加，煤炭开采和洗选业价格微涨0.1%；化工产品、水泥等工业品需求偏弱，化学原料和化学制品制造业价格下降1.1%，非金属矿物制品业价格下降0.6%；锂离子电池制造、计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业、汽车制造业价格环比走低。从国际上看，虽然OPEC继续削减原油产量支撑油价但非OPEC国家的原油供应增加，但同时全球经济基本面并未如预期般大幅走弱，1月全球制造业PMI为49.3%，较2023年12月上升1.3个百分点，而且IMF最新预测2024年全球经济增长3.1%，高于去年10月份预测的2.9%，加之全球原油目前仍处于低库存状态，预计短期油价呈震荡偏强走势。从国内来看，稳增长政策力度不减，有望支撑国内相关工业品价格，而春节假期效应可能对部分工业品价格有所扰动，预计短期PPI同比走势平稳，但在春节后金三银四需求有望逐渐释放。预计CPI同比回升，PPI同比走势平稳。2024年1月，CPI继续高于PPI，CPI-PPI剪刀差较2023年12月收敛至1.7个百分点。CPI方面，在1月份-0.8%的CPI同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-1.1个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为0.3个百分点。节日消费有望带动猪肉价格回升，鲜菜价格也有望延续季节性上行态势，叠加春节错位所带来的低基数效应，食品CPI同比有望转为上涨，成品油价格再度上调，旅游等服务价格在低基数下有望回升，预计非食品价格短期温和上行。综合来看2月份CPI同比有望回升至0以上；PPI方面，在1月份-2.5%的PPI同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-2.3个百分点��今年价格变动的新影响约为-0.2个百分点。国际油价短期或震荡偏强，春节效应或对部分工业品价格存在一定扰动，预计PPI同比走势平稳。风险提示：需求复苏不及预期、国际大宗商品价格波动超预期。', 'authorid': UUID('d3389991-b216-5572-82e3-6396ad6aed04'), 'sentimentScore': -0.012606188654899597, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'PSP78HF6V2JF1T5O5GKN39C9CJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:22:21 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'PSP78HF6V2JF1T5O5GKN39C9CJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d8ec5a7b-2c82-596c-ae0b-0c6665aef524'), 'title': 'Overseas market tracking: Economic contrast between Europe and the United States', 'author': 'Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli', 'orgName': '上海证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000155', 'orgSName': '上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEqtbWoUGcQlo3NY4aY1JVZ0=', 'researcher': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172617', '11000235839'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEqtbWoUGcQlo3NY4aY1JVZ0=', 'site': 'Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '上海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622320195_1.pdf?1708262084000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622320195_1.pdf?1708262084000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas market tracking: Economic contrast between Europe and the United States', 'originalAuthor': '胡月晓,陈彦利', 'originalContent': '投资摘要海外市场跟踪——（1.29-2.2）海外股市涨跌互现，美股再创新高；海外国债收益率集体下行，且下行幅度较突出；美元指数有所上涨，美元兑主要货币均有所升值，兑澳元升值幅度较大，人民币在主要货币中贬值幅度相对较小；CRB指数有所下跌，主要商品除伦敦金、小麦外均有所回落，原油价格大跌。欧盟经济弱回升，美国就业强劲欧盟4季度GDP同比增长0.2%，环比增长持平，均较三季度实现了弱回升。整体来看，2023年以来欧盟经济增长明显放缓，尤其是下半年以来，增速在0左右徘徊，与美国下半年经济的偏强形成明显的反差。德法两国均较三季度有所回升，但德国整体而言增长偏弱，法国表现稍好。美国1月新增非农35.3万人，大超市场预期，美国就业市场仍然强劲，也使得美联储政策转向的动力仍不充足。美英政策按兵不动，降息谨慎美联储以及英国央行在本周的货币政策会议中均选择了按兵不动。美联储强调“在对通胀率可持续地向2%迈进的信心增强之前，降低目标区间是不合适的”。而英国央行则认为货币政策需要在很长一段时间内保持限制性，直到通胀率高于2%目标的风险消散。整体来看，主要发达国家对于政策转向、降息仍较谨慎，主要的考量仍然是通胀目标的实现。我们认为加息进程已达尾声，政策转向仍需等待。风险提示俄乌冲突、中东冲突等地缘政治事件恶化，国际金融形势改变；中国通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。', 'content': 'Investment Summary Overseas Market Tracking - (1.29-2.2) Overseas stock markets were mixed, and U.S. stocks hit new highs; overseas debt yields fell collectively, and the decline was more pronounced; the U.S. dollar index rose, and the U.S. dollar rose against major currencies Appreciation, with a larger appreciation against the Australian dollar, while the RMB depreciation among major currencies was relatively small; the CRB index fell, major commodities except London gold and wheat all fell back, and crude oil prices fell sharply. The EU\\'s economy rebounded weakly and U.S. employment was strong. The EU\\'s GDP in the fourth quarter increased by 0.2% year-on-year and the quarter-on-quarter growth was flat, both achieving a weak rebound compared with the third quarter. Overall, the EU\\'s economic growth has slowed down significantly since 2023, especially since the second half of the year, with the growth rate hovering around 0, which is in clear contrast to the strong U.S. economy in the second half of the year. Both Germany and France have rebounded compared with the third quarter, but Germany\\'s overall growth is weak, and France\\'s performance is slightly better. The United States added 353,000 non-agricultural workers in January, exceeding market expectations. The U.S. job market remains strong, which also leaves insufficient motivation for the Federal Reserve to shift policy. U.S. and British policies remain on hold, cautious about cutting interest rates. Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England chose to remain on hold at their monetary policy meetings this week. The Fed emphasized that \"it would be inappropriate to lower the target range until confidence has increased that inflation can move sustainably towards 2%.\" The Bank of England believes that monetary policy needs to remain restrictive for a long time until the risk of inflation rising above the 2% target dissipates. On the whole, major developed countries are still cautious about policy changes and interest rate cuts, and the main consideration is still the achievement of inflation targets. We believe that the interest rate hike process has come to an end, and policy changes still need to wait. Risks suggest that geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East conflict have worsened, and the international financial situation has changed; China\\'s inflation has risen beyond expectations, and China\\'s monetary policy has changed beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('23836b0d-75e0-5a50-a109-862fde53e3bf'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6819365918636322, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'AK70FUV4E3JS0FOEMP81A22I83VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:22:23 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'AK70FUV4E3JS0FOEMP81A22I83VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d298fec6-9cd7-5d2e-bcfa-01f98593307d'), 'title': 'U.S. Economy: PMI rebounds more than expected, showing economic resilience', 'author': 'Ye Bingnan, Liu Zehui', 'orgName': '招银国际金融有限公司', 'orgCode': '80027629', 'orgSName': '招银国际', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEreSRYkjDE/VCro3oce/2Ss=', 'researcher': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000395738', '11000444841'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEreSRYkjDE/VCro3oce/2Ss=', 'site': 'CMB International Capital Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招银国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622319303_1.pdf?1709757580000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622319303_1.pdf?1709757580000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. Economy: PMI rebounds more than expected, showing economic resilience', 'originalAuthor': '叶丙南,刘泽晖', 'originalContent': '1月服务业PMI大幅反弹至53.4，高于市场预期。就业指数大幅回升，受建筑、餐饮和公共服务三大行业就业扩张带动，其他行业就业持平或有所降温。制造业PMI继续小幅回升但仍处于收缩区间，新订单指数自2022年8月以来重回扩张。受红海危机影响，制造业价格指数与交付时间有所增加。PMI超预期回升显示美国经济仍有韧性。但随着实际利率高企和货币政策紧缩效应显现，经济活动将逐步放缓。我们维持美联储可能从5月开始降息、全年降息1.5个百分点的预测。美联储可能在3月给出是否放缓QT指引。由于1Q24美国经济尚未显著冷却，10年国债收益率仍有波动。预计美国潜在名义GDP增速4.2%左右是10年国债收益率的上限，2024年末10年国债收益率可能降至3.75%。预计美国GDP增速将从2023年的2.5%降至2024年的1.2%，总需求放缓和供应链恢复将推动PCE通胀从2023年的3.7%降至2024年的2.5%，名义GDP增速从2023年的6.3%降至2024年的3.7%。服务业PMI超预期反弹，受益于就业和新订单指数回升。ISM服务业PMI从12月的50.6反弹至53.4，高于市场预期的52，连续13个月在扩张区间。其中商业活动指数保持在55.8。就业指数从12月的43.3大幅反弹至1月的50.5，重返扩张区间，近期节假日等因素导致季节调整后就业数据波动较大。就业指数反弹主要受建筑、餐饮和公共服务三大行业就业扩张带动，其他行业就业持平或有所降温。新订单指数从52.8回升至55，显示服务业需求旺盛。库存指数从49.6继续下降至49.1，显示企业去库存速度加快。物价指数从57.4大幅上升至64，显示服务通胀压力上升，有企业表示红海危机导致了更长的海运时间和更高的成本。供应商交付指数从49.5上升至52.4，交付时间延长。新出口订单指数从50.4升至56.1，进口指数从57下降至54.5。分行业来看，医疗卫生与社会救助、农林牧渔、专业、科学与技术服务、政府服务、公用事业和餐饮住宿等十个行业PMI显著扩张。对利率较为敏感的行业如房地产、租赁、建筑业和金融与保险以及信息技术和零售等行业则在收缩。根据历史经验，服务业PMI超过49%预示经济扩张。1月53.4的服务业PMI对应年化GDP增速约为1.5%。制造业PMI小幅回升但仍在收缩区间。制造业PMI从12月的47.1反弹至1月的49.1，连续15个月处于收���区间。在17个主要行业中，13个行业进一步收缩，包括木制品、机械、橡胶与塑料制品、非金属矿物品和家具等。服装、纺织、运输设备和化工产品行业报告扩张。制造业产出和新订单指数从12月的49.9和47升至50.4和52.5，显示生产活动与需求有所恢复，新订单指数自2022年8月以来首次扩张。受益于此，库存指数也从43.9升至46.2，显示企业去库存速度放缓。受红海危机影响，制造业价格指数从12月的45.2大幅上升至52.9，8个月以来重回扩张区间，预示1月原材料价格有所反弹，PPI降幅或将缩窄。供应商交付指数从12月的47升至1月的49.1，交付时间缩短。制造业就业指数从12月的47.5降至47.1，出口订单下降至45.2，进口订单上升至50.1，预示贸易赤字将有所扩大。基于历史经验，制造业PMI低于50显示制造业收缩，低于42.5往往表明整体经济收缩，49.1的制造业PMI值对应的GDP增速约为1.9%。经济表现持续超预期，美联储可能在5月开始降息。PMI数据显示美国经济仍有韧性，就业市场虽有放缓迹象，但放缓速度仍慢于市场预期。目前实际利率已升至历史高位，货币政策紧缩对经济的抑制将逐步显现，尤其是资本密集行业和企业投资将继续受高利率和信贷条件收紧的影响。随着就业市场降温、收入放缓和消费信贷收紧，家庭消费可能逐步放缓。美联储可能在5月开始降息，全年降息1.5个百分点。在降息之后，实际利率依然较高，货币政策仍处于紧缩性状态。同时BTFP将在3月停止，银行体系将重新面临流动性压力，美联储可能会在3月开始给出是否缩减QT规模指引。由于1Q24美国经济尚未显著冷却，10年国债收益率仍有波动。预计美国潜在名义GDP增速4.2%左右是10年国债收益率的上限，2024年末10年国债收益率可能降至3.75%。', 'content': 'The services PMI rebounded sharply to 53.4 in January, which was higher than market expectations. The employment index rebounded sharply, driven by the expansion of employment in the three major industries of construction, catering and public services, while employment in other industries remained flat or cooled down. The manufacturing PMI continues to rebound slightly but is still in the contraction range, and the new orders index has returned to expansion since August 2022. Affected by the Red Sea crisis, the manufacturing price index and delivery time have increased. The PMI rebounded more than expected, showing that the U.S. economy is still resilient. However, as real interest rates remain high and the tightening effects of monetary policy emerge, economic activity will gradually slow down. We maintain our forecast that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in May and cut interest rates by 1.5 percentage points throughout the year. The Federal Reserve may give guidance on whether to slow down QT in March. Since the U.S. economy has not cooled significantly in 1Q24, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is still volatile. The U.S. potential nominal GDP growth rate of around 4.2% is expected to be the upper limit of the 10-year Treasury bond yield, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield may fall to 3.75% by the end of 2024. U.S. GDP growth is expected to fall from 2.5% in 2023 to 1.2% in 2024. Slowing aggregate demand and supply chain recovery will push PCE inflation to fall from 3.7% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024. Nominal GDP growth from 6.3% in 2023 to 3.7% in 2024. The services PMI rebounded more than expected, benefiting from the rebound in employment and new orders indexes. The ISM services PMI rebounded to 53.4 from 50.6 in December, higher than market expectations of 52, and has been in the expansion range for 13 consecutive months. The business activity index remained at 55.8. The employment index rebounded sharply from 43.3 in December to 50.5 in January, returning to the expansion range. Recent holidays and other factors have led to large fluctuations in seasonally adjusted employment data. The rebound in the employment index was mainly driven by the expansion of employment in the three major industries of construction, catering and public services, while employment in other industries remained flat or cooled down. The new orders index rebounded from 52.8 to 55, indicating strong demand in the service industry. The inventory index continued to fall from 49.6 to 49.1, indicating that companies are accelerating in destocking. The price index rose sharply from 57.4 to 64, indicating rising inflationary pressure on services. Some companies said that the Red Sea crisis has led to longer shipping times and higher costs. The supplier delivery index rose from 49.5 to 52.4, and delivery times increased. The new export orders index rose from 50.4 to 56.1, and the import index fell from 57 to 54.5. In terms of industries, the PMI of ten industries including medical health and social assistance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, professional, scientific and technical services, government services, public utilities, and catering and accommodation expanded significantly. Industries that are more sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate, leasing, construction and finance and insurance, as well as information technology and retail, are shrinking. According to historical experience, service industry PMI exceeding 49% indicates economic expansion. The services PMI of 53.4 in January corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of approximately 1.5%. The manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but is still in contraction territory. The manufacturing PMI rebounded from 47.1 in December to 49.1 in January, remaining in contraction territory for 15 consecutive months. Among the 17 major industries, 13 industries have further shrunk, including wood products, machinery, rubber and plastic products, non-metallic minerals and furniture. The apparel, textile, transportation equipment and chemical products industries reported expansion. The manufacturing output and new orders index rose to 50.4 and 52.5 from 49.9 and 47 in December, indicating that production activity and demand have recovered, and the new orders index expanded for the first time since August 2022. Benefiting from this, the inventory index also rose from 43.9 to 46.2, indicating that the speed of corporate destocking has slowed down. Affected by the Red Sea crisis, the manufacturing price index rose sharply from 45.2 in December to 52.9, returning to the expansion range for eight months, indicating that raw material prices rebounded in January and the PPI decline may narrow. The supplier delivery index rose to 49.1 in January from 47 in December, and delivery times shortened. The manufacturing employment index fell to 47.1 from 47.5 in December, export orders fell to 45.2, and import orders rose to 50.1, indicating that the trade deficit will expand. Based on historical experience, a manufacturing PMI below 50 indicates contraction of the manufacturing industry, and a manufacturing PMI below 42.5 often indicates contraction of the overall economy. A manufacturing PMI value of 49.1 corresponds to a GDP growth rate of approximately 1.9%. The economy continues to perform better than expected, and the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in May. PMI data shows that the U.S. economy is still resilient. Although the job market shows signs of slowing, the slowdown is still slower than market expectations. At present, real interest rates have risen to historical highs, and the suppression of the economy by monetary policy tightening will gradually become apparent. In particular, capital-intensive industries and corporate investment will continue to be affected by high interest rates and tightening credit conditions. Household consumption is likely to gradually slow as the job market cools, incomes slow and consumer credit tightens. The Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in May and cut interest rates by 1.5 percentage points throughout the year. After cutting interest rates, real interest rates remain high and monetary policy remains tightening. At the same time, BTFP will stop in March, the banking system will face liquidity pressure again, and the Federal Reserve may begin to give guidance on whether to reduce the scale of QT in March. Since the U.S. economy has not cooled significantly in 1Q24, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is still volatile. The U.S. potential nominal GDP growth rate of around 4.2% is expected to be the upper limit of the 10-year Treasury bond yield, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield may fall to 3.75% by the end of 2024.', 'authorid': UUID('08f97a71-1879-5f33-a1aa-79c7a17d8bf9'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8971930667757988, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'QPAD7G7IPG8E3BDGGS1GJCDK77VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:22:26 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'QPAD7G7IPG8E3BDGGS1GJCDK77VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2adc60d8-d7ed-552b-984b-1bf8f2f2822e'), 'title': 'Global major asset allocation weekly observation: The Fed’s expected interest rate cut may be postponed, and A-shares are ready to go after the Spring Festival', 'author': 'Yang Chao', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMErFk2JzLUJqrrkZX66J5kao=', 'researcher': '杨超', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000406637'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMErFk2JzLUJqrrkZX66J5kao=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622317174_1.pdf?1708262459000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622317174_1.pdf?1708262459000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Global major asset allocation weekly observation: The Fed’s expected interest rate cut may be postponed, and A-shares are ready to go after the Spring Festival', 'originalAuthor': '杨超', 'originalContent': '核心观点：大类资产表现复盘：周内（2月12日至2月16日），美国通胀数据表现大幅超预期，美联储官员持续打压市场降息预期，全球大类资产价格波动加剧。（1）大宗商品：WTI原油涨3.06%，报79.19美元/桶；COMEX黄金期货跌0.78%，报2007.50美元/盎司。（2）美国债市：2年期美债收益率上行16BPs，报4.64%；10年期美债收益率上行13BPs，报4.30%。（3）汇率：美元指数涨0.20%，报104.28；欧元兑美元跌0.07%，报1.08；英镑兑美元跌0.20%，报1.26；美元兑日元涨0.63%，报150.21。（4）权益市场：日经225涨4.31%，恒生指数涨3.77%，英国富时100涨1.84%，法国CAC40涨1.58%，印度SENSEX30涨1.16%，德国DAX1.13%，道琼斯工业指数跌0.11%，标普500跌0.42%，纳斯达克指数跌1.34%。大宗商品：（1）原油：地缘因素风险发酵与产油组织坚持减产计划，对冲了美国低于预期的零售数据与国际能源署对石油需求放缓的预测，原油价格录得收涨，预计原油价格仍将宽幅震荡。（2）黄金：降息预期持续受到打压，美债收益率大幅上行，美元指数飙升，黄金价格有所回落但仍受到避险情绪的支撑。黄金价格走势仍需观察美联储降息预期。债市：美债收益率震荡上行，一方面受强于市场预期的CPI与PPI数据支撑，另一方面受美联储鹰派立场不变的托举。预计全球大类资产定价之锚的美债收益率震荡或将持续。汇率市场：（1）美元指数：强于预期的通胀数据与鹰派的美联储支撑美元收涨，预计美元指数仍以震荡为主。（2）欧元与英镑：欧元区的通胀正在按预期下降，同时，英国的通胀降速超预期，市场强化了欧洲地区提前降息的预期，欧元与英镑贬值。（3）日元：日本央行明示即便在央行结束负利率政策之后，日本的金融状况仍将维持宽松状态，叠加日本将发行1万亿日元的国债，日元贬值，预计在美元强势背景下，日元维持震荡。权益市场：（1）美股：降息预期延后与风险偏好下行，美股暂时终结连续上涨态势。（2）日股：尽管日本2023年国民生产总值排名跌至世界第四，但在美国科技股持续上涨带动下，叠加持续的量化宽松政策与公司治理持续改善推动，日本股市再创历史新高，日经指数或延续惯性走势。（3）港股：当前欧美主要国家已进入确定性降息通道，预期港股市场流动性将有所改善；中国对经济的呵护政策有望持续加码，与此同时海外机构部分增持中概股，叠加港股处于相对较低的估值水平，港股存向上动能。A股市场在估值的绝对优势下，加之节前市场情绪已烘托回升，节后蓄势待发。中国春节数据表现：（1）电影：2024年春节档电影票录得81.39亿元，突破2021年78.42亿元的记录值，创新高的电影票房不仅展现了房居民消费存在进一步释放的潜力，还预示了传媒产业存在持续恢复的动能及不断增长的空间。（2）出行：2月10日至17日期间，全社会跨区域人员流动量预计累计23.11亿人次，反映居民强烈的出行意愿与待释放的强大消费需求。风险提示：全球经济下行风险，美联储降息时点及幅度不确定性风险，国际地缘因素不确定性风险，市场情绪不稳定性风险等。', 'content': \"Core point of view: Review of the performance of major asset classes: During the week (February 12 to February 16), U.S. inflation data significantly exceeded expectations. Federal Reserve officials continued to suppress market interest rate cut expectations, and global asset price fluctuations intensified. (1) Commodities: WTI crude oil rose 3.06% to US$79.19 per barrel; COMEX gold futures fell 0.78% to US$2,007.50 per ounce. (2) U.S. bond market: The yield on the 2-year U.S. bond rose 16 BPs to 4.64%; the yield on the 10-year U.S. bond rose 13 BPs to 4.30%. (3) Exchange rate: The U.S. dollar index rose 0.20% to 104.28; the euro fell 0.07% against the U.S. dollar to 1.08; the British pound fell 0.20% to 1.26 against the U.S. dollar; the U.S. dollar rose 0.63% against the Japanese yen to 150.21. (4) Equity market: Nikkei 225 rose 4.31%, Hang Seng Index rose 3.77%, British FTSE 100 rose 1.84%, French CAC40 rose 1.58%, Indian SENSEX30 rose 1.16%, German DAX 1.13%, Dow Jones Industrial Index fell 0.11 %, the S&P 500 fell 0.42%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.34%. Commodities: (1) Crude oil: The geopolitical risk factors and the oil-producing organization's insistence on production reduction plans have hedged the lower-than-expected retail sales data in the United States and the International Energy Agency's forecast of slowing oil demand. Crude oil prices have closed higher, and crude oil is expected to close higher. Prices will still fluctuate widely. (2) Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts continue to be suppressed, U.S. bond yields have risen sharply, the U.S. dollar index has soared, and gold prices have fallen back but are still supported by risk aversion. The price trend of gold still needs to be observed in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. Bond market: U.S. bond yields fluctuated upward, supported by CPI and PPI data that were stronger than market expectations on the one hand, and supported by the unchanged hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve on the other. It is expected that the fluctuation in U.S. bond yields, which is the anchor of global asset pricing, may continue. Exchange rate market: (1) U.S. dollar index: Stronger-than-expected inflation data and a hawkish Federal Reserve supported the U.S. dollar to close higher, and the U.S. dollar index is expected to remain volatile. (2) Euro and pound: Inflation in the euro area is declining as expected. At the same time, inflation in the UK has dropped faster than expected. The market has strengthened expectations of an early interest rate cut in Europe, and the euro and pound have depreciated. (3) Japanese yen: The Bank of Japan has made it clear that even after the central bank ends its negative interest rate policy, Japan's financial conditions will remain loose. Japan will issue 1 trillion yen of government bonds, and the yen will depreciate. It is expected that under the background of a strong US dollar, The yen remains volatile. Equity market: (1) U.S. stocks: With expectations of interest rate cuts postponed and risk appetite declining, U.S. stocks have temporarily ended their continuous rise. (2) Japanese stocks: Although Japan’s GDP ranking dropped to fourth in the world in 2023, driven by the continued rise of U.S. technology stocks, coupled with the continued quantitative easing policy and the continued improvement of corporate governance, the Japanese stock market hit a new record high , the Nikkei Index may continue its inertial trend. (3) Hong Kong stocks: At present, major European and American countries have entered the channel of deterministic interest rate cuts, and the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market is expected to improve; China's protective policies for the economy are expected to continue to increase. At the same time, some overseas institutions have increased their holdings of Chinese concept stocks, superimposing Hong Kong stocks. At a relatively low valuation level, Hong Kong stocks have upward momentum. With the absolute advantage of valuation and the rebound in market sentiment before the holidays, the A-share market is poised for growth after the holidays. Chinese Spring Festival data performance: (1) Movies: The 2024 Spring Festival movie ticket sales recorded 8.139 billion yuan, exceeding the record value of 7.842 billion yuan in 2021. The record-breaking movie box office not only shows the potential for further release of household consumption, but also This indicates that the media industry has continued recovery momentum and room for growth. (2) Travel: From February 10 to 17, the cross-regional movement of people across society is expected to total 2.311 billion people, reflecting residents’ strong willingness to travel and the strong consumer demand to be released. Risk warning: risks of global economic downturn, risks of uncertainty about the timing and extent of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, risks of uncertainty about international geopolitical factors, risks of instability in market sentiment, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('8103051e-1ac3-52d1-ae97-4eef593ccd5a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8999947868287563, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'CKEI582GN40FQ3HM7T62ME0UQJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:22:30 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'CKEI582GN40FQ3HM7T62ME0UQJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('016e8fc7-1005-57ba-9146-4f89f8a35d67'), 'title': 'Financial high-frequency data weekly report: January foreign exchange reserve fluctuations mainly came from valuation factors', 'author': 'Zhang Jun, Xu Dongshi, Zhan Lu', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEtfCeda3dedN50jnS1JgvwY=', 'researcher': '章俊,许冬石,詹璐', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000185520', '11000208436'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEtfCeda3dedN50jnS1JgvwY=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622315896_1.pdf?1708256038000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622315896_1.pdf?1708256038000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Financial high-frequency data weekly report: January foreign exchange reserve fluctuations mainly came from valuation factors', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,许冬石,詹璐', 'originalContent': '核心观点：根据国家外汇管理局公布数据，截至2024年1月末，我国外汇储备规模为32193亿美元，较2023年12月末下降187亿美元，降幅为0.58%。我们估算1月外汇储备的下降主要来自汇率折算和资产价格变化等估值因素，国际收支保持自主平衡：中国官方外汇储备的构成：美元资产约占60%。根据我们前期报告《如何观测中国储备资产中的美元资产》的估算，中国官方外汇储备中美元资产约占60%，非美资产约占40%。中国官方持有的美元资产包括美国国债，公司债、机构债、股权投资和存款等。其中美国国债总金额（中国直接持有的美国国债加上卢森堡与比利时代持额）约为1.3-1.4万亿美元，公司债和机构债总计约2700亿美元，股权投资约2900亿美元。美元指数上行，非美资产汇率折算后价值减损。1月美元指数上行2.1%至103.5，非美货币大多贬值，日元-4.02%、欧元-1.99%、英镑-0.40%；非美货币贬值会导致折算成美元后价值减损，我们估算这项因素导致官方储备资产下降约270亿美元。美债收益率上行，官方持有的美国国债价值减损。1月美国10年期国债收益率上行11BP至3.99%，带来美国国债价格下跌，我们估算这项因素导致官方储备资产下降约50亿美元。美股上涨，股权投资价值上升。1月美国三大股指上涨，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普500指数分别上涨1.15%、2.70%和2.16%，我们估算这项因素导致官方储备资产上升约60亿美元。综合来看，估值因素带来官方外汇储备下降约260亿美元，实体部门的季节性结汇上升以及国际收支则对外汇储备保持基本稳定发挥积极作用。近期市场观察（2月4日-2月16日）：2月4日-9日，公开市场操作净回笼3740亿元。2月5日降准实施后，春节前资金保持合理充裕，流动性明显分层现象消失：2月9日，SHIBOR007和DR007分别收于1.8570%（+1BP）、1.8500%（+1BP）。GC007快速下行39BP至2.0400%。R007收于1.8524%，几乎与DR007持平。银行间质押式回购日成交量快速回落：从上周的约6.3万亿回落至约4.6万亿。国债收益率小幅上行：2月9日，10年期中债国债收益率收于2.43%（+1BP），1年期收于1.93%（+4BP）同业存单发行利率回落至2.3%附近：2月9日，1年期国有银行同业存单发行利率回落至2.32%（-2BP）；股份制银行收于2.30%（-3BP）。美元指数春节期间上行0.2%，收于104.28，非美货币贬值，离岸人民币汇率在春节期间升值60pips：2月9日人民币即期汇率收于7.1729，2月16日USDCNH收于7.2127。2月5日-2月16日期间，日元-1.21%、韩元-0.96%、欧元-0.1%、加元-0.27%、澳元-1.20%、英镑-0.24%。', 'content': 'Core point of view: According to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as of the end of January 2024, my country\\'s foreign exchange reserves were US$3.2193 billion, a decrease of US$18.7 billion from the end of December 2023, a decrease of 0.58%. We estimate that the decline in foreign exchange reserves in January was mainly due to valuation factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset price changes. The balance of payments maintains an independent balance: The composition of China\\'s official foreign exchange reserves: US dollar assets account for about 60%. According to estimates in our previous report \"How to Observe U.S. Dollar Assets in China\\'s Reserve Assets\", U.S. dollar assets account for about 60% of China\\'s official foreign exchange reserves, and non-U.S. assets account for about 40%. China’s official holdings of U.S. dollar assets include U.S. Treasury bonds, corporate bonds, agency bonds, equity investments and deposits. Among them, the total amount of U.S. Treasury bonds (U.S. Treasury bonds directly held by China plus those held by Luxembourg and Belgium) is about 1.3-1.4 trillion U.S. dollars, corporate bonds and institutional bonds total about 270 billion U.S. dollars, and equity investment is about 290 billion U.S. dollars. The U.S. dollar index rose, and the value of non-U.S. assets declined after exchange rate conversion. In January, the U.S. dollar index rose by 2.1% to 103.5. Most non-U.S. currencies depreciated, including the Japanese yen -4.02%, the euro -1.99%, and the British pound -0.40%. The depreciation of non-U.S. currencies will lead to a loss of value after conversion into U.S. dollars. We estimate this factor This resulted in a decline in official reserve assets of approximately US$27 billion. U.S. Treasury yields rose and official holdings of U.S. Treasury securities lost value. In January, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose 11 BP to 3.99%, causing the price of U.S. Treasury bonds to fall. We estimate that this factor led to a decrease in official reserve assets of approximately US$5 billion. U.S. stocks rose, and the value of equity investments rose. The three major U.S. stock indexes rose in January, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index, Nasdaq Index, and S&P 500 Index rising by 1.15%, 2.70%, and 2.16% respectively. We estimate that this factor led to an increase in official reserve assets of approximately US$6 billion. Taken together, valuation factors have led to a decrease in official foreign exchange reserves of approximately US$26 billion. The increase in seasonal foreign exchange settlements in the real sector and the balance of payments have played a positive role in maintaining basic stability of foreign exchange reserves. Recent market observation (February 4-February 16): From February 4-9, open market operations saw a net withdrawal of 374 billion yuan. After the implementation of the RRR cut on February 5, funds remained reasonably abundant before the Spring Festival, and the obvious stratification of liquidity disappeared: on February 9, SHIBOR007 and DR007 closed at 1.8570% (+1BP) and 1.8500% (+1BP) respectively. GC007 quickly dropped 39BP to 2.0400%. R007 closed at 1.8524%, almost the same as DR007. The daily trading volume of inter-bank pledged repos fell rapidly: from about 6.3 trillion last week to about 4.6 trillion. Treasury yields rose slightly: On February 9, the 10-year China Bond yields closed at 2.43% (+1BP), and the 1-year bond yields closed at 1.93% (+4BP). The interbank certificate of deposit issuance interest rate fell back to around 2.3%: February On the 9th, the one-year interbank certificate of deposit issuance rate of state-owned banks fell back to 2.32% (-2BP); joint-stock banks closed at 2.30% (-3BP). The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.2% during the Spring Festival, closing at 104.28. Non-U.S. currencies depreciated, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated by 60 pps during the Spring Festival: the RMB spot exchange rate closed at 7.1729 on February 9, and USDCNH closed at 7.2127 on February 16. February From the 5th to February 16th, the Japanese yen -1.21%, the Korean won -0.96%, the euro -0.1%, the Canadian dollar -0.27%, the Australian dollar -1.20%, and the British pound -0.24%.', 'authorid': UUID('9691e2af-b977-525d-9856-67ec9bb87ebf'), 'sentimentScore': -0.5843278393149376, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'B6BDPDDRVCLPG10ESU9DU5T2JVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:22:32 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'B6BDPDDRVCLPG10ESU9DU5T2JVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d4f65fff-2353-5cac-99d1-ffead6cdd052'), 'title': 'Domestic Observation: Inflation data for January 2024: CPI excluding the impact of the Spring Festival dislocation is still weaker than seasonal', 'author': 'Liu Sijia, Hu Shaohua', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEk+RFIars8bvJkeOKsiZEP8=', 'researcher': '刘思佳,胡少华', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257478', '11000249934'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEk+RFIars8bvJkeOKsiZEP8=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622306134_1.pdf?1708262459000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622306134_1.pdf?1708262459000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Domestic Observation: Inflation data for January 2024: CPI excluding the impact of the Spring Festival dislocation is still weaker than seasonal', 'originalAuthor': '刘思佳,胡少华', 'originalContent': '投资要点事件：2月8日，统计局发布2024年1月通胀数据。1月，CPI当月同比-0.8%，前值-0.3%；环比0.3%，前值0.1%。PPI当月同比-2.5%，前值-2.7%；环比-0.2%，前值-0.3%。核心观点：总的来看，春节错位对CPI的影响较大，但剔除春节的因素来看环比也明显弱于季节性，主要拖累来自于食品、商品，服务类价格表现相对稳定。2月CPI或有一定程度回升，但往后CPI的回升仍需政策加力。PPI受传统施工淡季影响，3月集中开工后，保交楼、万亿国债政策的落地效果或有进一步体现。总的来看，1月通胀回落后，实际利率水平进一步抬升，关注2月政策利率及LPR利率的变动。虽有春节错位影响，但CPI环比仍明显弱于季节性。1-2月CPI通常存在春节错位扰动，我们以2010年以后春节位于2月的年份测算环比均值为0.65%，2024年1月CPI环比为0.3%，虽然较前值有所上升，但仍明显弱于季节性。其中，食品环比��0.4%（2010年以来剔除春节错位影响均值2.15%），是主要拖累项，非食品环比0.2%（均值0.18%），基本持平于季节性。猪价基数回落，同比拖累收窄。据农业农村部数据，1月猪肉平均批发价20.09元/公斤，较上月的20.21元/公斤小幅回落，但基数回落的影响明显（2022年12月29.31元/公斤降至2023年1月23.83元/公斤），CPI中猪价同比降幅收窄至-17.30%（+8.8pct）。1月下旬以来猪价出现了一定程度反弹，主要受季节性需求增加影响。但从供给来看，2023年能繁母猪存栏整体维持去化的趋势，但截至12月数据仍然高于4100万头，去化速度偏慢。预计后续猪价大幅上涨的可能性不高，但对CPI的拖累可能会逐步减弱。寒潮对鲜菜供应影响持续，叠加需求上升，鲜菜价格环比上涨3.8%，而鲜果供应相对充足，环比下跌0.5%。商品消费偏弱，服务消费偏强。12月消费品价格环比0.2%（2010年以来剔除春节错位影响均值0.81%），虽然延续正增长，但明显弱于季节性。服务消费价格环比0.4%（2010年以来剔除春节错位影响均值0.40%），持平于季节性，在近5年内属于相对优异的表现。从价格层面可以反映出服务消费的表现要强于商品消费。基数以及去年同期疫情放开后的返乡高峰影响，核心通胀同比回落。受服务的带动，核心CPI环比0.3%，但由于去年同期恰逢疫情放开后春节返乡高峰，同比基数由0.7%跃升至1.0%，高基数下虽然环比超季节性（2010年以来剔除春节错位影响均值0.19%），但同比由0.6%降至0.4%。PPI环比同比继续为负，但降幅收窄，后续观察需求端政策落地效果。1月PPI环比-0.2%，降幅较上个月有所收窄，略弱于季节性（近5年同期均值0.04%）。从工业品需求来看，整体进入传统施工淡季。发改委表示下达增发国债第三批项目清单，安排资金2000亿元，自此1万亿增发国债项目全部下达完毕，预计农历新年后，相关工业品需求有望得到提振。另外，房地产白名单落地速度加快，第一批城中村改造专项借款已落地，意味着PSL投放的效果开始显现，对水泥、钢铁等房地产相关工业品需求或有一定支撑。分产业来看，原油、有色等价格回落，带动1月相关产业PPI回落；钢材节前补库需求增加，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业环比上涨；寒潮引起部分地区采暖需求增加，煤炭开采和洗选业价格微涨。风险提示：政策落地不及预期，海外金融市场风险。', 'content': 'Important investment events: On February 8, the Bureau of Statistics released inflation data for January 2024. In January, CPI was -0.8% year-on-year, and the previous value was -0.3%; month-on-month, it was 0.3%, and the previous value was 0.1%. PPI for the month was -2.5% year-on-year, and the previous value was -2.7%; month-on-month -0.2%, and the previous value was -0.3%. Core point of view: Generally speaking, the Spring Festival dislocation has a greater impact on CPI, but excluding the Spring Festival factor, the month-on-month period is also significantly weaker than the seasonality. The main drag comes from food and commodities, and the price performance of services is relatively stable. CPI may have rebounded to a certain extent in February, but future CPI recovery will still require policy intensification. PPI is affected by the traditional construction off-season. After the intensive start of construction in March, the effect of the guaranteed delivery of buildings and the trillions of national debt policies may be further reflected. Generally speaking, after inflation fell back in January, the real interest rate level further increased. Pay attention to the changes in the policy interest rate and LPR interest rate in February. Despite the impact of the Spring Festival dislocation, the CPI is still significantly weaker than seasonal. The CPI from January to February is usually disturbed by the Spring Festival dislocation. We calculated the month-on-month average value for the years after 2010 when the Spring Festival was in February. The month-on-month CPI in January 2024 was 0.3%. Although it has increased compared with the previous value, it is still significant. Weaker than seasonal. Among them, food is only 0.4% month-on-month (average 2.15% since 2010, excluding the impact of the Spring Festival dislocation), which is the main drag. Non-food is 0.2% month-on-month (average 0.18%), which is basically the same as seasonal. The base of pig prices fell, dragging down the year-on-year decline. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of pork in January was 20.09 yuan/kg, down slightly from 20.21 yuan/kg in the previous month, but the impact of the falling base was obvious (29.31 yuan/kg in December 2022 dropped to 23.83 yuan/kg in January 2023 Yuan/kg), the year-on-year decrease in pig price in CPI narrowed to -17.30% (+8.8pct). Pig prices have rebounded to a certain extent since late January, mainly affected by increased seasonal demand. However, from the perspective of supply, the overall breeding sow population will maintain a trend of depuration in 2023, but the data as of December is still higher than 41 million, and the depuration rate is slow. It is expected that the possibility of subsequent sharp rise in pig prices is not high, but the drag on CPI may gradually weaken. The cold wave continued to have an impact on the supply of fresh vegetables, and the superimposed demand increased. The price of fresh vegetables increased by 3.8% month-on-month, while the supply of fresh fruits was relatively sufficient, falling by 0.5% month-on-month. The consumption of goods is weak and the consumption of services is strong. Consumer goods prices in December were 0.2% month-on-month (the average since 2010, excluding the impact of the Spring Festival dislocation, is 0.81%). Although positive growth continued, it was significantly weaker than seasonal. The consumer price of services was 0.4% month-on-month (the average since 2010, excluding the impact of the Spring Festival dislocation, is 0.40%), which is consistent with seasonality and has been a relatively excellent performance in the past five years. From the price level, it can be reflected that the performance of service consumption is stronger than that of commodity consumption. The core inflation fell year-on-year due to the influence of the base and the peak return home after the epidemic was relaxed in the same period last year. Driven by services, the core CPI was 0.3% month-on-month. However, because the same period last year coincided with the peak of returning home during the Spring Festival after the epidemic was relaxed, the year-on-year base jumped from 0.7% to 1.0%. Although the month-on-month was super seasonal under the high base (excluding the Spring Festival since 2010) The average impact of dislocation was 0.19%), but it dropped from 0.6% to 0.4% year-on-year. PPI continues to be negative month-on-month and year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed. The effect of the implementation of demand-side policies will be observed in the future. The PPI in January was -0.2% month-on-month, and the decline was narrower than last month, slightly weaker than seasonal (the average for the same period in the past five years was 0.04%). From the perspective of demand for industrial products, the overall construction period has entered the traditional off-season. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that it has issued a list of the third batch of projects for the issuance of additional treasury bonds, and has allocated 200 billion yuan in funds. Since then, all 1 trillion additional treasury bond issuance projects have been issued. It is expected that demand for related industrial products will be boosted after the Lunar New Year. In addition, the implementation of the real estate whitelist has accelerated, and the first batch of special loans for urban village reconstruction has been implemented, which means that the effects of PSL investment are beginning to show, and there may be some support for the demand for real estate-related industrial products such as cement and steel. In terms of industries, the price of crude oil and non-ferrous metals fell, driving the PPI of related industries to fall in January; the demand for replenishment of steel before the holiday increased, and the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased month-on-month; the cold wave caused an increase in heating demand in some areas, and coal mining and washing The price of selection industry increased slightly. Risk warning: Policy implementation falls short of expectations, and there are risks in overseas financial markets.', 'authorid': UUID('2bb8c3e6-3f18-54fc-986c-cc6e63caf435'), 'sentimentScore': -0.0353245809674263, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3UV64BTQ74L2G5AQT5BC8TLA1FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:22:54 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3UV64BTQ74L2G5AQT5BC8TLA1FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3e0dc2a0-27a2-5ecf-9cad-53e72fca9d02'), 'title': 'Domestic Observation: Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2023 - Relatively loose may continue, vigorously develop the bond market', 'author': 'Liu Sijia, Hu Shaohua', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEom3BdPm9J7mSVz9Bc/4UqU=', 'researcher': '刘思佳,胡少华', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257478', '11000249934'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEom3BdPm9J7mSVz9Bc/4UqU=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622306132_1.pdf?1708255469000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622306132_1.pdf?1708255469000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Domestic Observation: Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2023 - Relatively loose may continue, vigorously develop the bond market', 'originalAuthor': '刘思佳,胡少华', 'originalContent': '投资要点事件：2月8日，央行发布2023年四季度中国货币政策执行报告。核心观点：四季度执行报告整体延续中央经济工作会议精神，报告指出了经济回升向好，但也存在堵点，消费者信心、民间投资增速都处于低位，需求不足与产能过剩也存在矛盾，预计货币政策仍将维持相对宽松，量上或配合财政节奏，价上一季度LPR仍有概率下调。经济回升向好，但大循环也存在堵点。四季度报告指出“经济持续回升向好”，相较于三季度的“经济平稳运行”，更偏乐观，但同时“也需要克服一些困难和挑战”。国际上主要面对的挑战仍是高利率的滞后影响以及大选年世界政治经济形势的不确定性，国内新增措辞“经济大循环也存在堵点，消费者信心指数和民间投资增速仍处低位，需求不足与产能过剩的矛盾较为突出”。宽松或将延续。货币政策基调上延续中央经济工作会议精神“灵活适度、精准有效”，与三季度相比变化不大。继续强化宏观政策逆周期和跨周期调节，搭配运用多种货币政策工具，我们认为整体相对宽松或将延续。大力发展直接融资，债券市场或是重要发展方向。相较于三季度大篇幅强调信贷平滑以及盘活存量，四季度信贷部分新增表述较多。一是指出“合理把握债券与信贷两个最大融资市场的关系”，甚至把这一点放在了保持流动性合理充裕之前，直接融资市场尤其是债券市场或成为重要发展方向。二是专栏1介绍了准确把握货币信贷供需规律和新特点，不能“唯信贷增量”，而更需关注信贷的结构、存量的盘活以及增量的平滑。具体层面多看利率下降的成效、重点领域的金融支持力度以及涵盖直接融资的社融规模。通胀相较三季度偏积极。总体判断“物价有望温和回升”，好于三季度“短期还将维持低位”。不过同时指出“四季度以来，耐用品和服务价格涨幅也偏弱”，“目前物价水平较低背后反映的是经济有效需求不足、总供求恢复不同步”，需求端政策仍有望发力。PPI降幅预计也将“持续”收敛。畅通货币政策传导渠道。利率层面对货币政策传导着墨较多，或引导前期50BP降准以及近一轮存款利率下调，在稳定银行负债成本的同时，推动实体融资利率的下行，我们认为一季度LPR仍有下调可能。另外专栏2中回顾了利率自律机制的十年，结合“督促金融机构坚持风险定价原则，理顺贷款利率与债券收益率等市场利率的关系”来看，自律机制仍将在健全市场化利率形成的过程中发挥重要作用，提高利率传导的效率。用好PSL，加大地产三大工程支持力度。截至1月，本轮PSL已新投放5000亿元，首批城中村改造专项借款已落地，PSL助力三大工程，能在一定程度上对冲地产投资整体的下行。风险提示：国内政策落地不及预期，海外金融市场风险。', 'content': 'Key investment events: On February 8, the central bank released China’s monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2023. Core point of view: The fourth quarter executive report overall continues the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference. The report points out that the economy is picking up for the better, but there are still congestion points. Consumer confidence and private investment growth are at low levels, and there are also conflicts between insufficient demand and overcapacity. It is expected that monetary policy will remain relatively loose, and the volume may be in line with the fiscal pace. There is still a possibility that the LPR will be lowered in the last quarter. The economy is picking up for the better, but there are still blockages in the general cycle. The fourth quarter report pointed out that \"the economy continues to rebound and improve\", which is more optimistic than the \"economy running smoothly\" in the third quarter, but at the same time \"some difficulties and challenges also need to be overcome.\" The main challenges faced internationally are still the lagging impact of high interest rates and the uncertainty of the world political and economic situation in the election year. Domestically, the newly added wording \"There are also congestion points in the economic cycle, and the consumer confidence index and private investment growth rate are still at a low level.\" At a low level, the contradiction between insufficient demand and overcapacity is more prominent.\" The easing may continue. The tone of monetary policy continues the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference to be \"flexible, moderate, precise and effective\", with little change from the third quarter. By continuing to strengthen counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustments to macroeconomic policies and using a variety of monetary policy tools, we believe that the overall relative looseness may continue. Vigorously develop direct financing, and the bond market may be an important development direction. Compared with the large emphasis on credit smoothing and revitalization of stock in the third quarter, there are more new statements on the credit part in the fourth quarter. The first is to point out that \"reasonably grasp the relationship between the two largest financing markets, bonds and credit,\" and even put this before maintaining reasonably sufficient liquidity. The direct financing market, especially the bond market, may become an important development direction. Second, Column 1 introduces that to accurately grasp the laws and new characteristics of money and credit supply and demand, we cannot \"only increase credit\", but need to pay more attention to the structure of credit, the revitalization of the stock, and the smoothing of the increase. At the specific level, we will look at the effectiveness of the reduction in interest rates, the intensity of financial support in key areas, and the scale of social financing covering direct financing. Inflation was more positive than in the third quarter. The overall judgment is that \"prices are expected to recover moderately\", which is better than the third quarter and \"will remain low in the short term.\" However, it also pointed out that \"since the fourth quarter, the price increase of durable goods and services has also been weak\" and \"the current low price level reflects the lack of effective economic demand and the asynchronous recovery of total supply and demand.\" Demand-side policies are still expected to be effective. The decline in PPI is also expected to \"continue\" to converge. Smooth the transmission channels of monetary policy. At the interest rate level, there is a lot of focus on monetary policy transmission, which may lead to the previous 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut and the recent round of deposit interest rate cuts. While stabilizing bank liability costs, it will also promote the downward trend of entity financing interest rates. We believe that there is still a possibility of LPR reduction in the first quarter. In addition, Column 2 reviews the ten years of the interest rate self-regulatory mechanism. Combined with \"supervising financial institutions to adhere to risk pricing principles and rationalize the relationship between loan interest rates and bond yields and other market interest rates\", the self-regulatory mechanism will still be formed in the improvement of market-oriented interest rates. play an important role in the process and improve the efficiency of interest rate transmission. Make good use of PSL to increase support for the three major real estate projects. As of January, this round of PSL has invested 500 billion yuan in new funds, and the first batch of special loans for urban village renovation has been implemented. PSL supports three major projects and can hedge against the overall decline in real estate investment to a certain extent. Risk warning: Domestic policy implementation falls short of expectations, and overseas financial market risks arise.', 'authorid': UUID('2bb8c3e6-3f18-54fc-986c-cc6e63caf435'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8555492125451565, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'A47JHNQPT32RBAL8FQGVJ2B29VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:22:57 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'A47JHNQPT32RBAL8FQGVJ2B29VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('353b99a8-d394-5f8f-aac4-075abb3d68f6'), 'title': 'Domestic high-frequency indicator tracking (Issue 6, 2024)', 'author': 'Z Honghu Ali Ang,Amber Zhou', 'orgName': '海通国际证券集团有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001968', 'orgSName': '海通国际', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEoy+KKAC/JT7bY0fJ99e8iQ=', 'researcher': 'Zhonghua Liang,Amber Zhou', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000406832', '11000355042'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEoy+KKAC/JT7bY0fJ99e8iQ=', 'site': 'Haitong International Securities Group Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '海通国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622306042_1.pdf?1708252481000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622306042_1.pdf?1708252481000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Domestic high-frequency indicator tracking (Issue 6, 2024)', 'originalAuthor': 'Zhonghua Liang,Amber Zhou', 'originalContent': '春节人口流动和消费持续恢复，生产、建设进度季节性放缓。人口流动方面，春运客流或创历史新高，跨区域人口流动更频繁。消费方面，服务消费表现火热，其中，与旅游出行相关的消费表现较好；商品消费有所回升，食品饮料、汽车和家电等消费有不错表现。投资方面，整体平稳运行，节前逐步歇班停工。进出口方面，港口数据好于往年。生产方面，节前生产季节性回落，不过多数行业回落速度慢于往年。库存方面，建材持续冬储补库，库存水平均有所回升。价格方面，消费品价格季节性回升，工业品价格则小幅回落。流动性方面，美元指数重回104关口以上。风险提示：稳增长政策不及预期。', 'content': 'Population mobility and consumption continued to recover during the Spring Festival, and production and construction progress slowed down seasonally. In terms of population mobility, passenger flow during the Spring Festival travel season may reach a record high, and cross-regional population movements will become more frequent. In terms of consumption, service consumption is booming, among which consumption related to tourism and travel is performing better; commodity consumption has rebounded, with consumption of food and beverages, automobiles and home appliances performing well. In terms of investment, the overall operation was smooth, and work was gradually suspended before the holidays. In terms of import and export, port data were better than in previous years. In terms of production, production fell seasonally before the holidays, but the decline in most industries was slower than in previous years. In terms of inventory, building materials continued to be replenished during the winter, and inventory levels have rebounded. In terms of prices, consumer goods prices rebounded seasonally, while industrial product prices fell slightly. In terms of liquidity, the U.S. dollar index returned to above the 104 mark. Risk warning: Policies to stabilize growth fall short of expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('21742a72-b2bd-533e-9f1a-c6fdb159a438'), 'sentimentScore': 0.766497328877449, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'VVRHELD0IO51G75IE3I4R8TGCJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:23:00 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'VVRHELD0IO51G75IE3I4R8TGCJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "IncompleteRead(44934 bytes read, 3101 more expected)\n", - "{'id': UUID('228ab2ba-61c0-5e88-b876-5d325194af4d'), 'title': 'At the foot of the clouds, waiting for the rain to fall: Oil prices could rise again', 'author': 'Yang Weiqiu, Meng Zijun', 'orgName': '国元证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001043', 'orgSName': '国元证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEgh15q5ksaUi/a8pK3miuY0=', 'researcher': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000176619', '11000337831'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEgh15q5ksaUi/a8pK3miuY0=', 'site': 'Guoyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国元证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622305892_1.pdf?1708255126000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622305892_1.pdf?1708255126000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'At the foot of the clouds, waiting for the rain to fall: Oil prices could rise again', 'originalAuthor': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'originalContent': '报告要点：新一轮库存周期上行动力偏弱，对油价提振有限1）新一轮库存周期大概率是弱周期，表现为：补库持续时间短、库存同比增幅小、商品价格上行力量不足。2）中美库存周期错位，商品波动更为复杂、补库进程反复；3）过剩产能尚未出清，反弹乏力；地产、出口及财政无法提供补库推手。需求端：整体表现疲弱，新兴经济体支撑增长1）OECD国家经济缺乏增长动能，需求延续偏弱；2）以中印为代表的非OECD国家贡献主要增量，但增速边际放缓；供给端：供给主动配速，美国与OPEC+博弈1）OPEC+减产极限承压，组织内部矛盾演化。2023年11月会议宣布减产加码或将在2024年Q1兑现，导致短期供给偏紧；2）随库存井（DUC）持续释放，美国页岩油增量边际触顶，或将面临产能瓶颈。金融属性：市场交易情绪，关注美国降息开启时间1）短期油价受交易情绪驱动、地缘冲突扰动；利好因素的作用微弱，或无法兑现，看空预期逆转乏力；2）美国降息开启时间将成为油价中枢拐点的决定性因素，通胀回落情况将成为油价振幅的重要指引。预计美联储不早于2024年Q3开启降息。总结：1）石油作为稀缺资源，供给偏紧是主旋律，但供需缺口是源于供给端调整配速，还是需求端升温拉动，将成为判断油价走势的关键。2）2024年布油运行中枢预计为90美元/桶。震荡区间位于85-100美元/桶。2024年H1，基本面主导，中枢先上行后回落承压；H2交割逻辑主导，随美联储降息窗口开启，油价迎来上行拐点。风险提示：宏观经济不及预期，地缘冲突升级。', 'content': \"Key points of the report: The new round of inventory cycle has weak upward momentum and has limited boost to oil prices. 1) The new round of inventory cycle is likely to be a weak cycle, which is manifested by: short replenishment duration, small year-on-year increase in inventory, and insufficient upward power for commodity prices. . 2) The inventory cycles of China and the United States are misaligned, commodity fluctuations are more complex, and the inventory replenishment process is repeated; 3) Excess production capacity has not yet been cleared, and the rebound is weak; real estate, exports, and finance cannot provide drivers for inventory replenishment. Demand side: The overall performance is weak, and emerging economies support growth. 1) The economies of OECD countries lack growth momentum, and demand continues to be weak; 2) Non-OECD countries represented by China and India contribute the main increase, but the growth rate slows down at the margin; supply End: Supply proactively paces the game, the United States and OPEC+ 1) OPEC+ is under pressure to cut production to the limit, and conflicts within the organization are evolving. The November 2023 meeting announced that production cuts and increases may be implemented in Q1 of 2024, resulting in tight short-term supply; 2) With the continued release of wells in storage (DUC), the marginal increase in U.S. shale oil has peaked and may face production capacity bottlenecks. Financial attributes: Market trading sentiment, paying attention to the start time of the U.S. interest rate cut 1) Short-term oil prices are driven by trading sentiment and disturbed by geopolitical conflicts; the positive factors have a weak effect or may not be realized, and bearish expectations are weak in reversing; 2) The start time of the U.S. interest rate cut will become the oil price The decisive factor of the central turning point and the fall in inflation will become an important guide for the amplitude of oil prices. The Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates no earlier than Q3 of 2024. Summary: 1) As oil is a scarce resource, tight supply is the main theme. However, whether the supply and demand gap is due to the adjustment of the supply side or the heating of the demand side will become the key to judging the trend of oil prices. 2) The operating center of Brent oil in 2024 is expected to be US$90/barrel. The shock range is between 85 and 100 US dollars per barrel. In H1 of 2024, fundamentals will dominate, and the center will first rise and then fall back under pressure; H2 delivery logic will dominate, and with the opening of the Fed's interest rate cut window, oil prices will usher in an upward inflection point. Risk warning: The macro economy is worse than expected and geopolitical conflicts escalate.\", 'authorid': UUID('06a6231a-b667-541e-b1fd-3c96f32864dc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9586552660912275, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8V7NC6AO1VFKEPE40DOBJT788BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:23:38 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8V7NC6AO1VFKEPE40DOBJT788BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7e5d1b8b-2433-50b4-8480-cc6297fd4796'), 'title': 'Overview of overseas financial market events during the Spring Festival holiday: Asia-Pacific stock markets stand out', 'author': 'Dong Dezhi ,Ji Jiahui', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEl+Hg2e0Le3l8Y08VxiFqeg=', 'researcher': '董德志,季家辉', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177875', '11000411432'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=JlA2NAlrYIpzWg9DdyeMEl+Hg2e0Le3l8Y08VxiFqeg=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622305853_1.pdf?1708252246000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402181622305853_1.pdf?1708252246000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overview of overseas financial market events during the Spring Festival holiday: Asia-Pacific stock markets stand out', 'originalAuthor': '董德志,季家辉', 'originalContent': '事项：2024年春节假期为2月9日至2��17日，期间海外金融市场共经历6个交易日，我们对春节假期海外主要资产表现及重大新闻热点作出了梳理回顾。评论：结论：1、大类资产表现：2024年春节假期期间亚太股指普遍表现较好；全球债券利率上行；铜、油价格上升，金价小幅下跌；美元小幅走强。2、海外经济数据：美国1月CPI通胀数据高于预期；美国1月零售数据走弱；美国财政预算赤字扩大；欧元区工业产出增速转正；日本四季度经济负增长。3、全球要闻一览：美联储官员对降息态度不一；欧洲加大军费开支；欧盟下调欧元区增长预测值；穆迪下调以色列评级。大类资产表现：股票市场：2024年春节假期期间，亚太股指表现较好，欧洲股指略有上涨，美国三大股指表现分化。截至2月16日收盘，道琼斯工业指数跌0.25%，标普500指数涨0.15%，纳斯达克指数跌0.11%，德国DAX指数涨0.91%，富时100指数涨1.53%，欧洲Stoxx50指数涨1.03%，日经225指数涨4.41%，韩国综指涨1.09%，恒生指数上涨2.91%，恒生国企指数上涨3.71%，富时中国A50指数期货上涨1.82%。债券市场：美债长短端利率均保持上行，美国CPI数据发布弱化了市场的降息预期，推动2年期和10年期美债利率走高。假期期间，两年期美债收益率上行18BP，收于4.64%，十年期美债收益率上行15BP，收于4.3%。德国和日本国债长端利率也有所上升，假期期间，十年期德债收益率上行8BP，收于2.4%，十年期日债收益率上行3bp，收于0.74%。大宗商品：铜、油价格上升，金价小幅下跌。中东地缘冲突尚未缓解，全球油价继续走高。截至2月16日，布伦特原油价格上涨2.24%，收于83.58美元/桶。欧美经济景气持续回升，伦敦铜价上涨2.99%，收于8472美元/吨。市场对美联储降息预期有所调整，伦敦金价下跌1.02%，收于2013.06美元/盎司。外汇市场：假期期间美元小幅走强，欧元和人民币汇率变化不明显。截至2月16日，美元指数报104.28，上升0.13%；欧元兑美元汇率为1.0778，持平假期前；人民币离岸汇率小幅升值0.04%，至7.2127。海外经济数据：美国方面：美国1月CPI通胀数据高于预期：美国1月CPI和核心CPI同比上涨3.1%和3.9%，均高于彭博一致预期值2.9%和3.7%，前值分别为3.4%和3.9%。结构来看，能源价格同比下跌4.3%，跌幅较上月扩大2.5个百分点，为整体通胀继续降温的主要贡献；核心商品价格由涨转跌，同比下降0.3%；住房通胀缓慢降温，同比上涨6.1%，涨幅较上月回落0.1个百分点；扣除住房的核心服务通胀反弹，同比上涨4.6%，涨幅较上月扩大0.3个百分点。美国1月零售数据走弱：美国1月零售销售环比为-0.8%，前值为0.6%；扣除汽车和汽油的零售销售环比为-0.5%，前值为0.6%，零售销售环比增速跌至2023年3月以来的最低值。结构上看，建材和园林设备供应商、杂货店、汽车经销商、加油站零售额跌幅居前，环比分别下跌4.1%、3%、1.7%和1.7%。美国财政预算赤字扩大：美国财政部公布数据显示，1月底，美国付息政府债务余额的加权平均利率为3.15%，为2010年5月以来最高，较上年同期高出约70个基点。2024财年前四个月的赤字达到5320亿美元，比去年同期高出16%。期内利息成本为3570亿美元，比2023年增长37%。美联储加息导致政府债务成本上升，加大了美国财政预算的负担。欧元区和日本方面：欧元区工业产出增速转正：欧元区12月工业产出同比增长1.2%，前值为-6.8%，同比增速自2023年4月以来首度转正。2023年欧元区工业生产表现低迷的原因一方面是供给短缺背景下企业原材料成本激增，另一方面银行业危机使得金融机构收紧信贷投放，企业融资成本上升。随着通胀显著下降、欧央行加息结束，企业压力有一定缓解，开工扩产意愿上升。日本2023年四季度经济负增长：日本四季度实际GDP环比折年下降0.4%，经济连续两个季度出现负增长。结构来看，居民消费支出、居民房地产投资、私营企业投资、政府开支对GDP均为负向贡献，分别拖累实际GDP0.5%、0.2%、0.2%和0.1%的增长。仅有净出口对GDP贡献为正，拉动实际GDP0.7%的增长。全球要闻一览美联储官员对降息态度不一：美国1月CPI数据发布后，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比和亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克发表讲话。古尔斯比表示高于预期的通胀数据未必阻碍美联储降息考虑。他提出，当前利率水平“相当具有限制性”，如果保持限制性水平过久，失业率有大幅上升的风险。并且他对通胀持续下降抱有乐观情绪，认为通胀预期仍处于美联储的目标范围内，通胀降至目标水平难度不大。而博斯蒂克则认为，由于美国劳动力市场和经济仍然强劲，无需急于降息，并表达了对通胀是否会持续降至2%目标水平的担忧。欧洲加大军费开支：北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格表示，今年北约欧洲成员国的军费总体开支将占GDP总和的2%，这是近几十年来的最高水平。主要原因是欧洲附近地缘政治冲突加剧，且若特朗普再度当选美国总统，可能会阻止向乌克兰和以色列提供军事援助，欧洲需要减少对美国军事支持的依赖。欧盟下调欧元区增长预测值：欧盟委员会预计欧元区2024年经济增长率为0.8%，低于去年11月份预测值1.2%；预计2025年的增长率为1.5%，低于去年11月份预测值1.6%。预计2024年物价将上涨2.7%，低于去年11月份预测值3.2%；预计2025年底通胀将达到2.2%的水平，基本实现欧央行政策目标。穆迪下调以色列评级：穆迪表示，与哈马斯持续的军事冲突及其带来更广泛的影响大大增加了以色列的政治风险，并削弱了其行政和立法机构及其财政实力，预计未来几年的预算赤字将远高于冲突前的预期。为此，穆迪将以色列的外币和本币发行人评级从A1下调至A2，并将该国的前景调整为负面。风险提示全球各大央行货币紧缩超预期、地缘政治冲突影响全球大宗商品价格上涨、极端气候对全球供应链造成冲击。', 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'事项：2024年春节假期为2月9日至2月17日，期间海外金融市场共经历6个交易日，我们对春节假期海外主要资产表现及重大新闻热点作出了梳理回顾。评论：结论：1、大类资产表现：2024年春节假期期间亚太股指普遍表现较好；全球债券利率上行；铜、油价格上升，金价小幅下跌；美元小幅走强。2、海外经济数据：美国1月CPI通胀数据高于预期；美国1月零售数据走弱；美国财政预算赤字扩大；欧元区工业产出增速转正；日本四季度经济负增长。3、全球要闻一览：美联储官员对降息态度不一；欧洲加大军费开支；欧盟下调欧元区增长预测值；穆迪下调以色列评级。大类资产表现：股票市场：2024年春节假期期间，亚太股指表现较好，欧洲股指略有上涨，美国三大股指表现分化。截至2月16日收盘，道琼斯工业指数跌0.25%，标普500指数涨0.15%，纳斯达克指数跌0.11%，德国DAX指数涨0.91%，富时100指数涨1.53%，欧洲Stoxx50指数涨1.03%，日经225指数涨4.41%，韩国综指涨1.09%，恒生指数上涨2.91%，恒生国企指数上涨3.71%，富时中国A50指数期货上涨1.82%。债券市场：美债长短端利率均保持上行，美国CPI数据发布弱化了市场的降息预期，推动2年期和10年期美债利率走高。假期期间，两年期美债收益率上行18BP，收于4.64%，十年期美债收益率上行15BP，收于4.3%。德国和日本国债长端利率也有所上升，假期期间，十年期德债收益率上行8BP，收于2.4%，十年期日债收益率上行3bp，收于0.74%。大宗商品：铜、油价格上升，金价小幅下跌。中东地缘冲突尚未缓解，全球油价继续走高。截至2月16日，布伦特原油价格上涨2.24%，收于83.58美元/桶。欧美经济景气持续回升，伦敦铜价上涨2.99%，收于8472美元/吨。市场对美联储降息预期有所调整，伦敦金价下跌1.02%，收于2013.06美元/盎司。外汇市场：假期期间美元小幅走强，欧元和人民币汇率变化不明显。截至2月16日，美元指数报104.28，上升0.13%；欧元兑美元汇率为1.0778，持平假期前；人民币离岸汇率小幅升值0.04%，至7.2127。海外经济数据：美国方面：美国1月CPI通胀数据高于预期：美国1月CPI和核心CPI同比上涨3.1%和3.9%，均高于彭博一致预期值2.9%和3.7%，前值分别为3.4%和3.9%。结构来看，能源价格同比下跌4.3%，跌幅较上月扩大2.5个百分点，为整体通胀继续降温的主要贡献；核心商品价格由涨转跌，同比下降0.3%；住房通胀缓慢降温，同比上涨6.1%，涨幅较上月回落0.1个百分点；扣除住房的核心服务通胀反弹，同比上涨4.6%，涨幅较上月扩大0.3个百分点。美国1月零售数据走弱：美国1月零售销售环比为-0.8%，前值为0.6%；扣除汽车和汽油的零售销售环比为-0.5%，前值为0.6%，零售销售环比增速跌至2023年3月以来的最低值。结构上看，建材和园林设备供应商、杂货店、汽车经销商、加油站零售额跌幅居前，环比分别下跌4.1%、3%、1.7%和1.7%。美国财政预算赤字扩大：美国财政部公布数据显示，1月底，美国付息政府债务余额的加权平均利率为3.15%，为2010年5月以来最高，较上年同期高出约70个基点。2024财年前四个月的赤字达到5320亿美元，比去年同期高出16%。期内利息成本为3570亿美元，比2023年增长37%。美联储加息导致政府债务成本上升，加大了美国财政预算的负担。欧元区和日本方面：欧元区工业产出增速转正：欧元区12月工业产出同比增长1.2%，前值为-6.8%，同比增速自2023年4月以来首度转正。2023年欧元区工业生产表现低迷的原因一方面是供给短缺背景下企业原材料成本激增，另一方面银行业危机使得金融机构收紧信贷投放，企业融资成本上升。随着通胀显著下降、欧央行加息结束，企业压力有一定缓解，开工扩产意愿上升。日本2023年四季度经济负增长：日本四季度实际GDP环比折年下降0.4%，经济连续两个季度出现负增长。结构来看，居民消费支出、居民房地产投资、私营企业投资、政府开支对GDP均为负向贡献，分别拖累实际GDP0.5%、0.2%、0.2%和0.1%的增长。仅有净出口对GDP贡献为正，拉动实际GDP0.7%的增长。全球要闻一览美联储官员对降息态度不一：美国1月CPI数据发布后，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比和亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克发表讲话。古尔斯比表示高于预期的通胀数据未必阻碍美联储降息考虑。他提出，当前利率水平“相当具有限制性”，如果保持限制性水平过久，失业率有大幅上升的风险。并且他对通胀持续下降抱有乐观情绪，认为通胀预期仍处于美联储的目标范围内，通胀降至目标水平难度不大。而博斯蒂克则认为，由于美国劳动力市场和经济仍然强劲，无需急于降息，并表达了对通胀是否会持续降至2%目标水平的担忧。欧洲加大军费开支：北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格表示，今年北约欧洲成员国的军费总体开支将占GDP总和的2%，这是近几十年来的最高水平。主要原因是欧洲附近地缘政治冲突加剧，且若特朗普再度当选美国总统，可能会阻止向乌克兰和以色列提供军事援助，欧洲需要减少对美国军事支持的依赖。欧盟下调欧元区增长预测值：欧盟委员会预计欧元区2024年经济增长率为0.8%，低于去年11月份预测值1.2%；预计2025年的增长率为1.5%，低于去年11月份预测值1.6%。预计2024年物价将上涨2.7%，低于去年11月份预测值3.2%；预计2025年底通胀将达到2.2%的水平，基本实现欧央行政策目标。穆迪下调以色列评级：穆迪表示，与哈马斯持续的军事冲突及其带来更广泛的影响大大增加了以色列的政治风险，并削弱了其行政和立法机构及其财政实力，预计未来几年的预算赤字将远高于冲突前的预期。为此，穆迪将以色列的外币和本币发行人评级从A1下调至A2，并将该国的前景调整为负面。风险提示全球各大央行货币紧缩超预期、地缘政治冲突影响全球大宗商品价格上涨、极端气候对全球供应链造成冲击。', 'authorid': UUID('97d75b25-e29c-5022-a15d-dd58c5ad281c'), 'sentimentScore': 0.01545531302690506, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'UHMBCIQDGI1KM1LMLC78FO42T3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:24:15 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'UHMBCIQDGI1KM1LMLC78FO42T3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5f1bd50b-5ba3-5607-bd59-1654bd4007b7'), 'title': 'Macro special research: Domestic and foreign macro data have positive signals during the Spring Festival', 'author': 'Fan Lei, Fang Shichao, Wang Boqun', 'orgName': '国联证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000028', 'orgSName': '国联证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': '655cmRHEWjJu6/A/HEWplSpvWkL4SDNFgvl6lfNOpO4=', 'researcher': '樊磊,方诗超,王博群', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000175009', '11000369352', '11000457032'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=655cmRHEWjJu6/A/HEWplSpvWkL4SDNFgvl6lfNOpO4=', 'site': 'Guolian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402171622223101_1.pdf?1708249486000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402171622223101_1.pdf?1708249486000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro special research: Domestic and foreign macro data have positive signals during the Spring Festival', 'originalAuthor': '樊磊,方诗超,王博群', 'originalContent': '专题内容摘要核心观点：国内方面，今年春节期间的高频数据总体向好，居民跨区域出行与市内出行都有明显回升，娱乐与旅游消费也都出现回暖的迹象。农历三十公布的1月社融数据也超预期，且伴随着未来信贷供给改善和政府债券发行提速，社融存量环比有望从当前的偏低位置回升。海外方面，美国1月通胀数据略超预期，美联储降低通胀的任务或仍未完成，市场关于美联储降息的预期明显降温。春节期间高频数据总体向好今年春节假期，居民的跨区域出行与市内出���都有明显回升，全社会跨区域人员流动量、地铁客运量、99城拥堵延时指数分别较19年同期复合增长4.4%、4.7%、0.6%（前值1.8%、-3.6%、0.4%）。假期居民出行的增长利好线下服务消费，以电影观影为代表的娱乐消费与境内外旅游消费都出现回暖的迹象，比如春节档电影票房收入较19年复合增长5.5%(前值3.8%)，消费需求有所修复。但地产销售仍较为疲软，或与开发商推盘偏谨慎有关。社融存量环比有望从当前偏低位置回升1月社融增加6.5万亿元，高于5.8万亿的市场一致预期。其存量在季节性调整后，环比增速仍有下滑。信贷供给偏紧和政府债券发行偏弱可能在需求不错的情况下拖累了社融增速。从目前来看，社融环比增速已经回落到8%出头的偏低水平。伴随着未来信贷供给的改善和政府债券发行追赶进度，我们预计后续社融环比增长能有所企稳，有望助推经济环比增长改善。美国通胀数据推迟降息预期美国1月通胀数据略超预期（CPI环比上升0.3%，超预期0.2%；核心CPI环比上升0.4%，高于预期0.3%），美联储降低通胀的任务或仍未完成。在通胀数据略超预期的情况下，市场关于美联储降息的预期明显降温，3月会议降息的概率由16%降至9%。我们认为，3月美联储就降息的可能性不大，6月份降息也存在不确定性。虽然今年大概率降息，但是因为经济的韧性和通胀的风险，美联储降息的时点或偏晚。风险提示：经济、政策与预期不一致，地缘政治关系恶化超预期，外需超预期下行，地产出现系统性风险', 'content': \"Topic content summary Core point of view: Domestically, high-frequency data during this year’s Spring Festival are generally good, with residents’ cross-regional travel and intra-city travel picking up significantly, and entertainment and tourism consumption also showing signs of recovery. The January social financing data released on the 30th day of the lunar calendar also exceeded expectations. With the improvement of future credit supply and the acceleration of government bond issuance, the stock of social financing is expected to rebound from the current low position month-on-month. Overseas, U.S. inflation data in January slightly exceeded expectations. The Federal Reserve's task of reducing inflation may not be completed yet, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have significantly cooled. High-frequency data during the Spring Festival are generally good. During this year’s Spring Festival holiday, residents’ inter-regional travel and intra-city travel have rebounded significantly. The cross-regional personnel movement in the whole society, subway passenger volume, and the 99-city congestion delay index have been compounded compared with the same period in 2019. Growth rates were 4.4%, 4.7%, and 0.6% (previous values \\u200b\\u200bwere 1.8%, -3.6%, and 0.4%). The increase in residents' travel during the holidays has benefited offline service consumption. Entertainment consumption represented by movie watching and domestic and overseas tourism consumption are showing signs of recovery. For example, the box office revenue of Spring Festival movies increased by 5.5% compounded compared with 2019 (previous value was 3.8%). , consumer demand has recovered. However, real estate sales are still relatively weak, which may be related to developers being cautious in launching projects. The stock of social financing is expected to rebound from the current low position month-on-month. Social financing increased by 6.5 trillion yuan in January, higher than the market consensus of 5.8 trillion yuan. After seasonal adjustment, its stock growth rate still declined month-on-month. Tight credit supply and weak government bond issuance may have dragged down social financing growth despite good demand. From the current point of view, the month-on-month growth rate of social financing has dropped to a low level of just over 8%. With the improvement of future credit supply and the catch-up progress of government bond issuance, we expect that the subsequent quarter-on-quarter growth of social financing will stabilize, which is expected to boost the improvement of quarter-on-quarter economic growth. U.S. inflation data postponed interest rate cut expectations. U.S. inflation data in January slightly exceeded expectations (CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, 0.2% higher than expected; core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, 0.3% higher than expected). The Fed's task of reducing inflation may not be completed yet. With inflation data slightly exceeding expectations, market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have significantly cooled down, and the probability of an interest rate cut at the March meeting has dropped from 16% to 9%. We believe that it is unlikely that the Fed will cut interest rates in March, and there is also uncertainty about interest rate cuts in June. Although there is a high probability of an interest rate cut this year, the Fed may cut interest rates later due to the resilience of the economy and the risk of inflation. Risk warning: The economy and policies are inconsistent with expectations, geopolitical relations have deteriorated more than expected, external demand has declined more than expected, and systemic risks have emerged in real estate.\", 'authorid': UUID('00060989-c834-520e-810b-84b4825036ad'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9404321517795324, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3KDKEALBD7TGKCIN35QHV7D8AVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:24:18 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3KDKEALBD7TGKCIN35QHV7D8AVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('1822fe0c-78a0-5517-bcf1-46da23cb3af9'), 'title': 'Macro Comment: Is this year’s Spring Festival “hot and hot”?', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': '655cmRHEWjJu6/A/HEWplSI2L7oDXOsCV4AtnnWS93M=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=655cmRHEWjJu6/A/HEWplSI2L7oDXOsCV4AtnnWS93M=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402171622220447_1.pdf?1708247854000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402171622220447_1.pdf?1708247854000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: Is this year’s Spring Festival “hot and hot”?', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '春节假期已近尾声，不俗的假期消费表现为假期画上圆满句号。今年春节假期出现多个“亮点”，比如：春运出行客流显著提升可预期，但节后返工进程相对较快是“亮点”；国内旅游消费表现良好可预期，但“入境游”为国内旅游注入新活力、旅游客单价进一步提升、服务性消费提升力度超客流提升力度等是“亮点”。今年春节假期消费表现指向客流修复放缓下，服务性消费的人均消费水平等或仍有提升空间。亮点一：春节节后（初四至初六）人员流动节奏加快，或指向节后返工进程相对较快。截至2月15日（正月初六），春运全社会跨区人员流动量较2023年同期增长13%、较2019年同期增长11.7%；春节节后客流变化一定程度反映返工进程，今年初四至初六全国人口迁徙规模恢复至2019年同期的136.4%、明显高于节前返乡期间（腊月十六至腊月廿九）的115.7%，两者差值20.7个百分点、高于去年同期的16.5个百分点，节前、节后全社会跨区人流表现类似。亮点二：春节期间“入境游”快速提升或为国内旅游消费新亮点。春节期间（除夕至正月初六）我国国际航班执行架次恢复至2019年同期的69%、而全口岸出入境人数已达2019年同期的108%；分化原因在于：一是当前国内出境旅游半径仍偏小，访港、访澳等游客量提升较为明显；二是“入境游”人次快速增长，今年春节假期（正月初一至初八）入境游订单同比增长超3倍、较2019年同期增长50%亮点三：客单价、机票等旅游相关消费价格提升，支撑国内旅游收入表现。多地出现旅游收入修复好于接待游客修复的现象，比如：春节假期前7日，四川A级景区实现旅游收入较2019、2023年同期分别增长17.4%、33.2%，增速明显高于接待游客的6%、26%，湖北、内蒙古、河南等地均类似；同时今年春节假期（正月初一至初八）国内航线机票平均价格较2019、2023年同期增长33.3%、16%。亮点四：客流修复增速放缓下，服务性消费进一步提升。商务部数据显示，春节假期前3日，在线餐饮销售、住宿营业等服务性消费增长显著，美团数据显示，假期前5日，生活服务性日均消费规模较2019、2023同期增长155%、36%；假期前3日，北京市商务局重点监测餐饮企业营业额同比增速显著高于商圈客流同比。同时，今年春节档（正月初一至初七）院线影片供给相对较少、票价偏低背景下，票房表现显著超过往，亦是服务性消费提升的印证。商品消费及地产销售：汽车消费“开门红”，楼市静待“小阳春”。据乘联会初步统计，1月乘用车零售销量同比为57.4%。今年一月相对2023年一月多4个工作日，节前消费时间长，消费拉动更充分，春节前今年首购群体购车黄金期的“开门红”效果突出。而楼市方面，节前一线城市陆续松绑部分城区限购，但适逢假期签约淡季，新房销售处于���史同期低位，政策效果尚待节后2-3月楼市“小阳春”检验。工业生产：春节工业生产暂时“打烊”了，但普遍略好于去年同期。春节期间多数工业生产活动季节性走弱，近期直线下滑的煤炭吞吐量、铁路货运量以及三峡水库入库流量均是印证；但相较之下，今年春节期间生产表现好于去年，春节前一周，全国水泥粉磨开工率为17.4%、高于过往同期水平；春节当周，沥青开工率为23.7%、高于去年同期的22.6%，全国高炉开工率为76.8%、高于去年同期的76%。通胀：食品节前涨价，工业品价格全面回落。节前一周农产品批发价格200指数延续上升走势，周环比上升5.6%，其中猪肉周平均价格环比上涨5.7%，冬季是猪肉消费的传统旺季，加上春节前猪肉备货需求，进一步推动猪肉价格上涨。工业品方面，节前一周螺纹钢与铁矿石价格持续下行，水泥价格进一步走弱。风险提示：春运人流变动超预期；人流变动对消费传导不及预期。', 'content': 'The Spring Festival holiday is coming to an end, and the good holiday consumption performance brings the holiday to a successful conclusion. There are many \"bright spots\" during this year\\'s Spring Festival holiday. For example, a significant increase in passenger flow during Spring Festival travel can be expected, but the relatively rapid post-holiday rework process is a \"bright spot\"; domestic tourism consumption performs well and can be expected, but \"inbound tourism\" is domestic tourism. Injecting new vitality, further increasing the unit price of tourists, and increasing service consumption exceeding the increase in passenger flow are the \"highlights\". Consumption performance during this year\\'s Spring Festival holiday points to a slowdown in passenger flow recovery, and there may still be room for improvement in the per capita consumption level of service consumption. Highlight 1: After the Spring Festival (from the fourth to the sixth day of the Lunar New Year), the pace of personnel flow accelerates, which may indicate that the rework process after the holiday is relatively fast. As of February 15 (the sixth day of the first lunar month), the cross-regional movement of people during the Spring Festival has increased by 13% compared with the same period in 2023 and 11.7% compared with the same period in 2019; changes in passenger flow after the Spring Festival reflect the rework process to a certain extent. 6. The scale of population migration across the country has returned to 136.4% of the same period in 2019, which is significantly higher than the 115.7% during the pre-holiday return period (from the 16th to the 29th of the twelfth lunar month). The difference between the two is 20.7 percentage points, higher than the 16.5 percentage points in the same period last year. Percentage points, the cross-regional flow of people across society before and after the holiday is similar. Highlight 2: The rapid growth of “inbound tourism” during the Spring Festival may become a new highlight of domestic tourism consumption. During the Spring Festival (New Year\\'s Eve to the sixth day of the first lunar month), the number of international flights in China has returned to 69% of the same period in 2019, and the number of entries and exits at all ports has reached 108% of the same period in 2019. The reasons for the differentiation are: First, the current domestic outbound tourism radius is still The number of tourists visiting Hong Kong and Macao has increased significantly; secondly, the number of \"inbound tourism\" has increased rapidly. During this year\\'s Spring Festival holiday (from the first to the eighth day of the first lunar month), inbound tourism orders increased by more than 3 times year-on-year, and increased by 50% compared with the same period in 2019. % Highlight 3: The increase in unit price, air tickets and other tourism-related consumer prices supports the performance of domestic tourism revenue. In many places, the recovery of tourism revenue is better than the recovery of tourists. For example: 7 days before the Spring Festival holiday, Sichuan\\'s A-level scenic spots achieved tourism revenue growth of 17.4% and 33.2% respectively compared with the same period in 2019 and 2023. The growth rate was significantly higher than that of tourists. 6% and 26% are similar in Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other places; at the same time, the average price of domestic air tickets during this year’s Spring Festival holiday (from the first to the eighth day of the first lunar month) increased by 33.3% and 16% compared with the same period in 2019 and 2023. Highlight 4: With the recovery and growth of passenger flow slowing down, service consumption has further increased. Data from the Ministry of Commerce show that in the three days before the Spring Festival holiday, online catering sales, accommodation operations and other service consumption increased significantly. Meituan data shows that in the five days before the holiday, the average daily consumption of life services increased by 155% compared with the same period in 2019 and 2023. , 36%; three days before the holiday, the Beijing Municipal Commerce Bureau focused on monitoring that the year-on-year growth rate of catering companies\\' turnover was significantly higher than the year-on-year growth rate of passenger flow in business districts. At the same time, during this year’s Spring Festival (from the first to the seventh day of the first lunar month), the supply of theatrical films was relatively small and ticket prices were low. The box office performance was significantly higher than in the past, which is also evidence of the increase in service consumption. Commodity consumption and real estate sales: automobile consumption has had a good start, and the property market is waiting for the \"Indian Spring\". According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, passenger car retail sales in January were 57.4% year-on-year. January this year has 4 more working days than January 2023. The pre-holiday consumption time is longer and consumption is more fully driven. The \"good start\" effect of this year\\'s golden car buying period for first-time buyers before the Spring Festival is outstanding. As for the property market, first-tier cities have gradually relaxed purchase restrictions in some urban areas before the holiday. However, it coincides with the off-season for contract signing during the holidays, and new home sales are at a historical low for the same period. The effect of the policy has yet to be tested in the \"Little Indian Spring\" of the property market after the holiday in February to March. Industrial production: Industrial production is temporarily \"closed\" during the Spring Festival, but is generally slightly better than the same period last year. Most industrial production activities weaken seasonally during the Spring Festival, as evidenced by the recent plummeting coal throughput, railway freight volume, and Three Gorges Reservoir inflow; however, in comparison, production performance during this year\\'s Spring Festival was better than last year, and the week before the Spring Festival , the national cement grinding operating rate was 17.4%, higher than the same period in the past; in the week of the Spring Festival, the asphalt operating rate was 23.7%, higher than 22.6% in the same period last year, and the national blast furnace operating rate was 76.8%, higher than 76% in the same period last year %. Inflation: Food prices increased before the holiday, and industrial product prices fell across the board. The Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index continued its upward trend in the week before the holiday, rising 5.6% week-on-week, with the average weekly price of pork rising 5.7% month-on-month. Winter is the traditional peak season for pork consumption, and coupled with the demand for pork stocking before the Spring Festival, further promote the rise in pork prices. In terms of industrial products, rebar and iron ore prices continued to decline in the week before the holiday, and cement prices weakened further. Risk warning: The change in the flow of people during the Spring Festival is unexpected; the change in the flow of people will not be as good as expected in terms of consumption.', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9112131372094154, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TQCBD5CIJKOQSNP372FEUHV6MJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:24:21 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TQCBD5CIJKOQSNP372FEUHV6MJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6c0b1aa6-56fa-57c5-814f-b7c04f55b6d2'), 'title': 'The two main lines of the export chain', 'author': 'Xie Yunliang ,Mai Linyue', 'orgName': '信达证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80092742', 'orgSName': '信达证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': '655cmRHEWjJu6/A/HEWplcZKewvQqoE8ryG/9FiyM18=', 'researcher': '解运亮,麦麟玥', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000243225', '11000440452'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=655cmRHEWjJu6/A/HEWplcZKewvQqoE8ryG/9FiyM18=', 'site': 'Cinda Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '信达证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402171622169215_1.pdf?1708249794000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402171622169215_1.pdf?1708249794000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The two main lines of the export chain', 'originalAuthor': '解运亮,麦麟玥', 'originalContent': '去年出口动能切换。去年中国对外出口同比下降，显示我国外贸出口承受较大压力。我们判断，去年我国外贸压力主要和几点因素有关：一是美国处于库存去化阶段。二是海外多国处于加息末期，政策利率偏高，制造业景气度下滑。三是通胀回落背景下，全球制成品出口价格拖累较多。综上，在美国去库存、海外加息和全球价格回落三重压力叠加之下，去年我国对外出口同比跌幅较大。今年出口压制或出现扭转。从全球经济走势来看，我们认为，今年全球紧缩周期或见顶，经济复苏动能分化。这一分化不仅体现在发达经济体和新兴市场经济体的经济增长上，也体现在全球经济增速和贸易增速的分化上。一方面，受发达经济体影响，2024年全球GDP增速或难迎来反转。另一方面，全球贸易增速有望实现触底回升。在美国补库与全球制造业触底回升共振下，今年出口压制或有望出现扭转。建议关注地产后周期和低库存出口链机会。在今年全球经济增速或仍存压制而外贸增速将有所回升的背景下，出口链的结构性行情将更加重要，我们建议关注两大出口链机会。第一，美联储启动降息后，建议关注美国地产后周期相关板块出口链。第二，建议关注美国低库存行业下中国出海机会。在这轮低库存相关出口机会中，建议关注塑料制品、化学产品、家具家居品类。关注度上，建议非耐用品＞耐用品。风险因素：地缘政治风险，国际油价上涨超预期等。', 'content': \"Last year, export momentum switched. Last year, China's foreign exports declined year-on-year, indicating that my country's foreign trade exports were under greater pressure. We judge that the pressure on my country's foreign trade last year was mainly related to several factors: First, the United States was in the stage of destocking. Second, many overseas countries are in the final stage of raising interest rates, with policy rates on the high side and manufacturing boom declining. Third, against the background of falling inflation, global export prices of manufactured products have been dragged down more. To sum up, under the combined pressure of destocking in the United States, overseas interest rate hikes and falling global prices, my country's foreign exports fell significantly year-on-year last year. Export suppression may be reversed this year. From the perspective of global economic trends, we believe that the global tightening cycle may peak this year and the momentum of economic recovery will diverge. This differentiation is not only reflected in the economic growth of developed economies and emerging market economies, but also in the differentiation of global economic growth and trade growth. On the one hand, due to the influence of developed economies, global GDP growth may be difficult to reverse in 2024. On the other hand, global trade growth is expected to bottom out and rebound. As the U.S. replenishes its inventory and the global manufacturing industry bottoms out and rebounds, export suppression may be reversed this year. It is recommended to pay attention to the post-real estate cycle and low inventory export chain opportunities. Under the background that global economic growth may still be suppressed this year and foreign trade growth will pick up, the structural situation of the export chain will be even more important. We recommend paying attention to the two major export chain opportunities. First, after the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates, it is recommended to pay attention to the export chain of U.S. real estate related sectors after the cycle. Second, it is recommended to pay attention to China’s overseas opportunities in low-inventory industries in the United States. In this round of low-stock-related export opportunities, it is recommended to focus on plastic products, chemical products, and furniture and household categories. In terms of attention, it is recommended that non-durable goods > durable goods. Risk factors: geopolitical risks, higher-than-expected rise in international oil prices, etc.\", 'authorid': UUID('3f9d3803-89e6-5e94-a0a5-28b6565d83a1'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9460646882653236, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'FE4TOSTIR5OLG8FDCCQPTUJNDNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:24:24 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'FE4TOSTIR5OLG8FDCCQPTUJNDNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a2ef27a6-4ebc-5ea9-919b-c10559529668'), 'title': 'Event tracking at home and abroad: Things you can’t miss during the Spring Festival', 'author': 'Tan Yiming, Xie Yao', 'orgName': '民生证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000038', 'orgSName': '民生证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-18', 'encodeUrl': 'yjRYC83g84PiWPZ80zEfBlWCEOuFod9EftnBvsGFpik=', 'researcher': '谭逸鸣,谢瑶', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000374135', '11000449731'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=yjRYC83g84PiWPZ80zEfBlWCEOuFod9EftnBvsGFpik=', 'site': 'Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '民生证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402161622100637_1.pdf?1708249089000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402161622100637_1.pdf?1708249089000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Event tracking at home and abroad: Things you can’t miss during the Spring Festival', 'originalAuthor': '谭逸鸣,谢瑶', 'originalContent': '国内宏观动态跟踪：（1）春运客流：春运过半，全国铁路累计发送旅2.3亿人次随着经济社会全面恢复常态化运行，群众出行意愿强烈，叠加春节假期延长等因素影响，预计今年春运出行需求将进一步释放。据交通运输部预测，今年春运期间客流总量约为18亿人次。1月26日至2月14日，春运40天过半，全国铁路前20天累计发送旅客2.3亿人次。（2）春节旅游：春节假期旅游订单同比大幅增长今年春节假期国内旅游订单预计同比增长130%，入境游订单预计同比增长10倍以上，春节期间文旅市场相对活跃，旅游消费或迎来一定复苏。（3）线下消费：春节档电影总票房预计超70亿元截至2月15日17时，2024年中国电影市场春节档期总票房65.63亿元，总人次1.32亿，已超越2023年档期总观影人次1.29亿。2024年春节档总票房预计在70-75亿元，有望超去年。海外宏观动态跟踪：（1）海外资产：春节期间债市收益率总体上行，主要股指多数收涨春节期间，主要发达经济体的10年国债收益率有所上行，截至2月15日，近一周以来，美国10年国债收益率上行9bp，主因在于美国经济表现一定程度超预期，1月制造业PMI明显回升，1月通胀数据回落较缓，美联储降息预期有所降温。此外，英国、德国、法国、日本10年国债收益率分别变动18bp、1bp、-4bp、3bp。全球主要股指表现较好，截至2月15日，近一周以来，日经225指数大幅上涨3.5%领先，紧随其后法国CAC40指数、德国DAX指数、纳斯达克100指数、道琼斯指数、英国富时100指数、澳大利亚普通股指数均出现上涨，俄罗斯RTS指数小幅下跌。（2）海外市场：大宗商品涨跌分化，美元指数相对走强商品市场方面，截至2月15日，近一周以来，WTI原油和布伦特原油实现较大涨幅，分别为2.4%、1.5%；铜、铝、锌、黄金等工业金属价格均有所下跌，白银价格上涨1.4%；大豆价格下跌1.6%，小麦价格下跌2.7%。汇率市场方面，截至2月15日，近一周以来，美元指数小幅上升，收于104.3，美国1月通胀数据推动美债收益率反弹的同时，也引发美元指数大幅上涨，随后呈现震荡盘整。欧元兑美元下跌0.05%，美元兑日元上升0.4%。（3）美国经济：1月制造业PMI超预期，通胀回落放缓美国2023年第四季度实际GDP同比增长3.3%，全年增长2.5%，超出市场预期。个人消费支出和政府支出是拉动四季度经济增长的主要因素，美国消费需求仍然旺盛，美国经济仍具韧性。2024年1月，美国ISM制造业PMI为49.1，较前值47.4明显上升。1月CPI同比上涨3.1%，高于美联储设定的2%的长期通胀目标，短期内美国仍将在通胀压力与经济恢复之间进行权衡，美联储货币政策走向仍具有不确定性。风险提示：政策不确定性；基本面变化超预期；海外地缘政治冲突。', 'content': \"Domestic macro dynamic tracking: (1) Spring Festival travel passenger flow: The Spring Festival travel is over halfway, and the country’s railways have sent a total of 230 million passengers. With the economy and society fully returning to normal operations, people’s willingness to travel is strong, coupled with the impact of factors such as the extension of the Spring Festival holiday, it is expected that the demand for Spring Festival travel this year Will be released further. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Transport, the total passenger flow during this year's Spring Festival travel period is about 1.8 billion. From January 26 to February 14, half of the 40-day Spring Festival travel period, the country’s railways carried a total of 230 million passengers in the first 20 days. (2) Spring Festival tourism: Travel orders during the Spring Festival holiday have increased significantly year-on-year. Domestic travel orders during the Spring Festival holiday this year are expected to increase by 130% year-on-year, and inbound travel orders are expected to increase more than 10 times year-on-year. The cultural tourism market is relatively active during the Spring Festival, and tourism consumption may usher in a certain recovery. . (3) Offline consumption: The total box office of Spring Festival movies is expected to exceed 7 billion yuan. As of 17:00 on February 15, the total box office of the Chinese film market during the Spring Festival in 2024 is 6.563 billion yuan, with a total of 132 million visitors, which has exceeded the total number of viewers in the 2023 period. Viewed 129 million times. The total box office for the Spring Festival in 2024 is expected to be 7.0-7.5 billion yuan, which is expected to exceed last year. Overseas macro dynamic tracking: (1) Overseas assets: During the Spring Festival, bond market yields generally rose, and most major stock indexes closed higher. During the Spring Festival, the 10-year government bond yields of major developed economies rose. As of February 15, in the past week, Since then, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield has risen by 9bp, mainly because the U.S. economic performance has exceeded expectations to a certain extent, the manufacturing PMI has rebounded significantly in January, the inflation data in January has fallen slowly, and expectations of a Fed interest rate cut have cooled. In addition, the 10-year government bond yields of the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Japan changed by 18bp, 1bp, -4bp, and 3bp respectively. The world's major stock indexes have performed well. As of February 15, in the past week, the Nikkei 225 Index has risen sharply by 3.5%, leading the way, followed by the French CAC40 Index, the German DAX Index, the Nasdaq 100 Index, the Dow Jones Index, and the United Kingdom. The FTSE 100 Index and the Australian Ordinary Share Index both rose, while the Russian RTS Index fell slightly. (2) Overseas markets: The rise and fall of commodities are divided, and the US dollar index is relatively strong. In the commodity market, as of February 15, in the past week, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil have achieved large gains, 2.4% and 1.5% respectively; copper , aluminum, zinc, gold and other industrial metal prices all fell, with silver prices rising by 1.4%; soybean prices falling by 1.6%, and wheat prices falling by 2.7%. In the exchange rate market, as of February 15, in the past week, the U.S. dollar index has risen slightly, closing at 104.3. While U.S. inflation data in January pushed U.S. bond yields to rebound, it also triggered a sharp rise in the U.S. dollar index, which subsequently showed a volatile consolidation. The euro fell 0.05% against the dollar, while the dollar rose 0.4% against the yen. (3) U.S. economy: The manufacturing PMI in January exceeded expectations, and inflation slowed down. The real GDP of the United States in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and the full-year growth was 2.5%, exceeding market expectations. Personal consumption expenditures and government spending are the main factors driving economic growth in the fourth quarter. U.S. consumer demand remains strong and the U.S. economy remains resilient. In January 2024, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, a significant increase from the previous value of 47.4. The CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year in January, which is higher than the long-term inflation target of 2% set by the Federal Reserve. In the short term, the United States will still weigh the trade-off between inflationary pressure and economic recovery, and the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains uncertain. Risk warning: policy uncertainty; unexpected changes in fundamentals; overseas geopolitical conflicts.\", 'authorid': UUID('4f18741c-b24c-5f17-aad8-e4032418e170'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8095132019370794, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'GNSOD79KJSEIFB3K5JRVPDQM1VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:24:26 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'GNSOD79KJSEIFB3K5JRVPDQM1VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('836df870-cb0a-5de9-939a-6e977545d7fe'), 'title': 'Macro Special Report: Key Macro Variables for the Spring Festival in the Year of the Dragon', 'author': 'Zhang Jun, Gao Ming, Xu Dongshi, Zhan Lu, Nie Tianqi, Lu Lei, Yu Jintong', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-17', 'encodeUrl': '655cmRHEWjJu6/A/HEWplXER47Y/QTjVKYloTpxkehs=', 'researcher': '章俊,高明,许冬石,詹璐,聂天奇,吕雷,于金潼', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000262937', '11000185520', '11000208436', '11000450636', '11000443769', '11000440456'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=655cmRHEWjJu6/A/HEWplXER47Y/QTjVKYloTpxkehs=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402171622232039_1.pdf?1708250000000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402171622232039_1.pdf?1708250000000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Special Report: Key Macro Variables for the Spring Festival in the Year of the Dragon', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,高明,许冬石,詹璐,聂天奇,吕雷,于金潼', 'originalContent': '核心要点：一、春节前一周国内多项政策出台，受益于政策预期，市场情绪显著修复。1.中国资产节前反弹：2月5日至8日上证综指涨幅6.06%，创业板指数涨幅10.51%。10年期国债收益率2月5日降至2.40%的历史低位之后开始反弹，2月9日收于2.43%。2.财政政策：从地方政府债券发行计划来看，1至3月新增专项债规模分别为1998亿、2211亿、3631亿元，春节后发行将加速；且3月初的“两会”可能进一步研究超长期特别国债。3.房地产政策：1月12日住房城乡建设部、金融监管总局发布了《关于建立城市房地产融资协调机制的通知》，春节前各大银行先后宣布要积极落实。截至2月15日工、农、中、建、交对接项目超过8200个。4.货币与金融政策：2月7日吴清任职证监会党委书记、主席。2月8日人民银行发布《四季度货币政策执行报告》，首次提出“合理把握债券与信贷两个最大融资市场的关系”；并强调“引导信贷合理增长、均衡投放”与“保持物价在合理水平”。二、春节前发布的1月货币量与社会融资、价格数据等改善不明显，春节期间出行大幅增长，消费恢复相对平稳。1.2月8日发布的1月价格与金融数据改善并不明显：1月PPI同比-2.5%，环比-0.2%；CPI同比-0.8%（前值-0.3%），环比+0.3%。1月M2同比+8.7%（前值+8.9%）、M1同比+5.9%（前值+1.3%）、社会融资余额同比+9.5%（前值+9.5%）、人民币贷款余额同比+10.1%（+10.4%）。2.春节期间消费与票房恢复平稳：2024年春节前四天日平均消费额3.04亿元，低于2023年日均3.67亿元。截至2月16日2024年春节票房收入相比2023年增加11.5%至75.44亿元，观影人次增加17.5%至1.52亿人次，2023年票房和观影人次增速分别为11.8%和13.0%；2024年春节档单人消费票价为49.6元，比2023年的52.3元略有下调。3.春节期间出行火热：截至2月14日，春运前20天全社会跨区域人员流动量累计约45亿人次，相比2023年同期增长14%，比2019年同期增长11%。2月15日全社会跨区域人员流动量比2019年同期增21.8%，其中铁路、公路、民航比2019年同期分别增19.9%、22.4%、16.7%。三、美国利率与美元指数上行，美股先降后升接近前高，港股短期反弹1.通胀预期与利率汇率：美国1月CPI同比+3.1%（前值+3.4%），核心CPI保持在3.9%。由于通胀高于预期，2月16日美国10年期国债收益率收于4.3%（2月9日为4.17%），美元指数收于104.3（2月9日为104.1），均保持上行趋势。2.股指与商品：2月9日至16日美股纳指与道指先降后升，涨幅分别为-1.3%、-0.1%；港股反弹，恒指涨幅+3.8%。布伦特油价反弹，收于86.3美元/桶；伦金回落，收于1998美元/盎司。', 'content': 'Core points: 1. A number of domestic policies were introduced in the week before the Spring Festival. Benefiting from policy expectations, market sentiment recovered significantly. 1. Chinese assets rebounded before the holidays: From February 5 to 8, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 6.06%, and the GEM Index rose by 10.51%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to a historical low of 2.40% on February 5 and then began to rebound, closing at 2.43% on February 9. 2. Fiscal policy: Judging from the local government bond issuance plan, the scale of new special bonds from January to March was 199.8 billion, 221.1 billion, and 363.1 billion yuan respectively. Issuance will accelerate after the Spring Festival; and the \"Two Sessions\" in early March may further Research on ultra-long-term special Treasury bonds. 3. Real estate policy: On January 12, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Administration of Financial Supervision issued the \"Notice on Establishing an Urban Real Estate Financing Coordination Mechanism\". Before the Spring Festival, major banks successively announced that they would actively implement it. As of February 15, there were more than 8,200 docking projects in industry, agriculture, China, construction, and transportation. 4. Monetary and financial policy: On February 7, Wu Qing was appointed Secretary and Chairman of the Party Committee of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. On February 8, the People\\'s Bank of China released the \"Fourth Quarter Monetary Policy Implementation Report\", which for the first time proposed to \"reasonably grasp the relationship between the two largest financing markets, bonds and credit\"; and emphasized \"guiding reasonable credit growth and balanced distribution\" and \"maintaining prices at a reasonable level\". level\". 2. The monetary volume, social financing, and price data released before the Spring Festival in January did not improve significantly. During the Spring Festival, travel increased significantly and consumption recovered relatively steadily. 1. The improvements in price and financial data for January released on February 8 were not obvious: PPI in January was -2.5% year-on-year, -0.2% month-on-month; CPI was -0.8% year-on-year (previous value -0.3%), and month-on-month +0.3%. In January, M2 was +8.7% year-on-year (previous value +8.9%), M1 was +5.9% year-on-year (previous value +1.3%), social financing balance was +9.5% year-on-year (previous value +9.5%), and RMB loan balance was +10.1% year-on-year. (+10.4%). 2. Consumption and box office return to stability during the Spring Festival: The average daily consumption in the first four days of the Spring Festival in 2024 was 304 million yuan, lower than the daily average of 367 million yuan in 2023. As of February 16, the 2024 Spring Festival box office revenue increased by 11.5% to 7.544 billion yuan compared with 2023, and the number of moviegoers increased by 17.5% to 152 million. The growth rates of box office and moviegoers in 2023 were 11.8% and 13.0% respectively; The ticket price for a single person during the Spring Festival in 2024 is 49.6 yuan, slightly lower than the 52.3 yuan in 2023. 3. Travel is booming during the Spring Festival: As of February 14, the total number of cross-regional personnel movements in society in the 20 days before the Spring Festival travels was approximately 4.5 billion, an increase of 14% compared to the same period in 2023 and an increase of 11% compared to the same period in 2019. On February 15, the cross-regional flow of people across society increased by 21.8% compared with the same period in 2019, of which railway, highway, and civil aviation increased by 19.9%, 22.4%, and 16.7% respectively compared with the same period in 2019. 3. U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index rose, U.S. stocks first fell and then rose close to the previous high, and Hong Kong stocks rebounded in the short term 1. Inflation expectations and interest rate exchange rates: U.S. CPI in January +3.1% year-on-year (previous value +3.4%), core CPI remained at 3.9 %. Due to higher-than-expected inflation, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield closed at 4.3% on February 16 (4.17% on February 9), and the U.S. dollar index closed at 104.3 (104.1 on February 9), both maintaining an upward trend. 2. Stock indices and commodities: From February 9 to 16, the U.S. Nasdaq and the Dow fell first and then rose, with increases of -1.3% and -0.1% respectively; Hong Kong stocks rebounded, with the Hang Seng Index rising by +3.8%. Brent oil prices rebounded to close at US$86.3 per barrel; Lungin fell back to close at US$1,998 per ounce.', 'authorid': UUID('b2a52b7d-0f37-5170-b9c7-c575ef9f16e0'), 'sentimentScore': 0.0034194588661193848, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '721F75PV9R9OBP7NGGFV92T3OBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:24:29 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '721F75PV9R9OBP7NGGFV92T3OBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3e8b6e5a-a057-54b2-b327-d5d788d2ec85'), 'title': 'Commentary on U.S. CPI data in January: Inflation data may make expectations of interest rate cuts a false start or come to naught', 'author': 'Fan Lei, Wang Boqun', 'orgName': '国联证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000028', 'orgSName': '国联证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-16', 'encodeUrl': 'yjRYC83g84PiWPZ80zEfBr9c/zxLBcDgq1Yu5uHO99w=', 'researcher': '樊磊,王博群', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000175009', '11000457032'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=yjRYC83g84PiWPZ80zEfBr9c/zxLBcDgq1Yu5uHO99w=', 'site': 'Guolian Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国联证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402161622098128_1.pdf?1708107009000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402161622098128_1.pdf?1708107009000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on U.S. CPI data in January: Inflation data may make expectations of interest rate cuts a false start or come to naught', 'originalAuthor': '樊磊,王博群', 'originalContent': '事件：美国1月CPI同比增长3.1%，超预期，前值3.4%，环比增长0.3%。1月核心CPI同比3.9%，预期3.7%，前值3.9%，环比增长0.4%，上月0.3%。通胀数据或显示美联储降低通胀的任务仍未完成，特别是住宅通胀仍然偏强，且未来或仍有韧性。数据公布后美联储3月降息概率已经不到10%，国债利率上行，三大股指下行，市场调低降息预期。我们继续维持美联储降息在6月或以后的判断。事件点评CPI数据略超预期，美联储3月或不会降息CPI略超预期，虽然较上月回落，但速度慢于预期，同比从上个月的3.4%回落到3.1%（预期2.9%）。而核心CPI同比持平上月，也略高于预期。数据表明通胀或仍有韧性，降息或还不宜操之过急。数据公布后美联储3月降息概率已经不到10%，关于降息时点的争论或已经推迟到6月，国债利率上行，三大股指下行，市场调低降息预期。核心服务通胀环比加速，同比回升核心CPI的韧性主要体现在服务上。服务的通胀环比0.7%，较上月大增0.3pct，同比增长5.4%，也较上月回升。核心服务的主要一些分项，包括居所、运输服务、医护服务环比增长都较上月扩大。从核心CPI的权重来看，由于核心商品占比仅为核心服务大概一半，尽管商品通胀已经不是通胀的主要问题，但核心服务价格的韧性可能仍影响整体核心CPI，核心CPI可能仍然会表现出韧性。住宅通胀仍是主要拖累项，房价增速继续加快住宅的通胀目前仍然是每月服务通胀增长的最大贡献者，同比4.6%，上月4.8%。住宅通胀中，居所通胀仍处于高位，1月同比增长6.1%，上月6.2%。从目前的趋势看，未来短期住房相关通胀仍然是拖累通胀保持高位的分项。值得关注的是房价增速近期上行趋势仍在持续。美联储的研究发现房价增长与自有房等价租金(OER)通胀的相关性在16个月后达到0.75左右的峰值。这说明居所通胀仍有反复可能，货币政策不宜过早放松。风险提示：美联储鹰派超预期，地缘政治风险超预期。', 'content': \"Event: The U.S. CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year in January, exceeding expectations. The previous value was 3.4%, and the month-on-month increase was 0.3%. Core CPI in January was 3.9% year-on-year, expected to be 3.7%, the previous value was 3.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%. Inflation data may show that the Fed's task of lowering inflation is still incomplete, especially as residential inflation remains strong and may remain resilient in the future. After the data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March was less than 10%. Treasury interest rates rose, the three major stock indexes fell, and the market lowered expectations for interest rate cuts. We continue to maintain our judgment that the Fed will cut interest rates in June or later. Event Comments CPI data slightly exceeded expectations. The Fed may not cut interest rates in March. CPI data slightly exceeded expectations. Although it fell from last month, the speed was slower than expected. It fell to 3.1% year-on-year from 3.4% last month (expected 2.9%). The core CPI was unchanged from last month and slightly higher than expected. The data shows that inflation may still be resilient, and it may not be appropriate to cut interest rates too hastily. After the data was released, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March has been less than 10%. The debate on the timing of interest rate cuts may have been postponed to June. Treasury interest rates have risen, the three major stock indexes have fallen, and the market has lowered expectations for interest rate cuts. Core service inflation accelerated month-on-month, and the resilience of core CPI rebounded year-on-year is mainly reflected in services. Inflation for services was 0.7% month-on-month, a sharp increase of 0.3pct from the previous month, and a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, which also rebounded from the previous month. The month-on-month growth of some major sub-categories of core services, including residence, transportation services, and medical care services, expanded compared with the previous month. Judging from the weight of core CPI, since core goods account for only about half of core services, although commodity inflation is no longer the main issue of inflation, the resilience of core service prices may still affect the overall core CPI, and core CPI may still show toughness. Residential inflation remains the main drag, with house price growth continuing to accelerate. Residential inflation remains the largest contributor to monthly service inflation growth, at 4.6% year-on-year and 4.8% last month. Among residential inflation, residential inflation remains at a high level, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1% in January and 6.2% last month. Judging from the current trend, short-term housing-related inflation will still be a drag on maintaining high inflation in the future. It is noteworthy that the recent upward trend in housing price growth continues. The Fed's research found that the correlation between house price growth and owner-equivalent rent (OER) inflation peaked at around 0.75 after 16 months. This shows that residential inflation is still likely to recur, and monetary policy should not be relaxed prematurely. Risk warning: The Federal Reserve is more hawkish than expected, and geopolitical risks are greater than expected.\", 'authorid': UUID('4786395a-b6a8-5613-93cb-532d55daeddb'), 'sentimentScore': 0.3556334376335144, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '1NVPD5HMCVL3C0OVA61P33C17NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:24:31 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '1NVPD5HMCVL3C0OVA61P33C17NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f76ad8a3-1799-5004-a2ce-fa14317edb35'), 'title': 'Macro Comment: What happened to the U.S. banking industry during the holidays?', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-16', 'encodeUrl': 'yjRYC83g84PiWPZ80zEfBoOg+EITaAVhDKViWwDzo7I=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=yjRYC83g84PiWPZ80zEfBoOg+EITaAVhDKViWwDzo7I=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402161622094854_1.pdf?1708097826000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402161622094854_1.pdf?1708097826000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: What happened to the U.S. banking industry during the holidays?', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '今年什么能够迫使美联储提前“松口”？比起让市场屡次“失望”的通胀和失业数据，金融风险可能是重要的突破口。今年年初美国银行业就给美联储来了个“压力测试”——纽约社区银行（NYCB）的业绩暴雷和评级下调，股价腰斩。不过从市场和政策的反应来讲，这次冲击的“强度”明显不够的。标普500依旧执着地站上5000，而首次降息预期的预期“一拖再拖”。我们测算纽约社区银行当前涉险贷款规模约为59亿美元（约占整体贷款规模的7%），这种区域性、局部性的风险暴露确实难以撼动美联储的定力，而随着“软着陆+货币宽松”的主流观点越来越“根深蒂固”，股市buythedip的行为也愈发突出。美国银行的幺蛾子在哪？这次确实有点不一样。与去年硅谷银行（SVB）事件不同，这次纽约社区银行的压力来源主是商业地产的问题，这其中既有一般性的困境，例如疫情后远程办公的兴起、办公楼空置率居高不下，也有其自身特殊的区域性、业务性的问题，例如纽约地区对于公寓租金的限制。综合而言，由于规模可控、区域有限，且从历史上看商业地产对于实体经济的溢出影响不大，这次纽约社区银行“压力测试”的力度确实仍欠火候：问题矛头指向的是商业地产。硅谷银行和纽约社区银行都是规模较大的区域性银行，资产规模分别达2118亿（2022年）和1163亿美元。不过两者的业务和资产构成的差异加大，前者手中持有大量的证券资产，而后者的业务重心则在商业地产相关的贷款和租赁。2023年3月硅谷银行的问题主要来自于投资国债带来的巨额损失，以及对于存款保险的疏忽（只有约10%的存款受保护）。相较而言，纽约社区银行证券投资规模不大，而且被保险的存款占比也达67%。根据最新的预披露信息，其主要的问题在于因商业地产而导致的信贷损失准备以及为满足更加严格的监管（因为资产规模超过1000亿美元）而大幅削减分红、增加同业融资。第四季度，纽约社区银行信贷损失准备达5.5亿美元、大超预期，其中1.85亿的坏账核销来自于办公楼和公寓贷款，不过区别在于前者的问题具有一般性，而后者则更多反映了纽银的“地方特色”。“办公楼”问题具有普遍性，不过体量不大且多集中在“尾部”。疫情后远程办公等兴起，全美办公楼的空置率出现明显上升、超过2008年金融危机时期，同时在商业地产相关贷款中，办公楼的出险率也是居高不下。不过从体量和分布而言，这个问题可能不大。从纽约社区银行自身来看，截至2023Q3，其持有的办公楼相关贷款的规模约为34亿美元，占整体“贷款和租赁”资产的4%、总资产的3%。从全美市场来看，根据美联储的数据，2023年第二季度美国商业地产相关信贷在3万亿美元左右，在所有非金融机构信贷占比约7.4%，大部分集中在资产规模在500亿美元至1000亿美元的小银行手中，其中银行持有的办公楼和商业中心相关贷款约为7100亿美元，小银行持有约5100亿元（占总资产的6.9%）。从到期规模上看，以CMS口径作为代表，2024年办公楼相关贷款的到期规模略超300亿美元（与2023年10月IMF的测算基本一致）。不仅是美国的问题，可能更是全球的问题，根据MSCI的数据，2023年上半年美国中心商业区办公楼的贷款中国际型银行占比25%，区域和本地的银行则占17%。无独有偶，今年初日本青空银行（AozoraBank)也预告 2023 年财年可能迎来近 15 年首次亏损， 主要来自于对美国商业办公楼的投资。对于纽约社区银行而言，具有浓厚地方色彩的“多户型公寓”问题可能更加头疼。 Moody 在下调纽银评级的报告中明确表示该银行业务高度集中于纽约地区的多户型公寓，“历史上表现得很好， 但是这一轮周期可能不同”，一方面，高利率和高通胀使得再融资风险和维护成本明显上升；另一方面，可能更重要的是纽约州政府 2019 年颁布的租金管理相关法令（《住房稳定与租户保护法》）， 这使得房东难以大幅提高租金，导致相关资产估值大幅缩水。纽约社区银行是全美第二大多户型公寓贷款人（multi-family portfoliolender），尤其在纽约地区处于领先地位（图 9），根据华尔街日报的数据 ， 其 中 针 对 纽 约 市 政 府 划 定 的 租 金 稳 定 公 寓 （ rent-stabilizedapartments）的贷款体量约 180 亿美元， 约为 2023Q4 总贷款规模的21.5%。2019年新法案颁布之前，租金稳定公寓是投资机构的“香饽饽”。房东可以在达到一定的租金/空置或者维修等条件后将公寓移出政府的“租金稳定名单”，进而可以按照市场水平来收取租金，资产估值水平也会大幅提升。2019年新法案颁布后，“退出”途径被取消、租金水平被严格控制，必须遵守租金指导委员会的指导，2023年纽约该类型的公寓租金最大涨幅仅为3%。自法案颁布以来，相关公寓的售价平均跌幅约为34%。根据纽约社区银行的口径，当前约14%的相关贷款（约25亿美元）面临一定的违约风险。因此我们大致可以测算纽约社区银行当前面临风险的贷款规模约为59亿美元（办公楼相关的34亿+租金稳定公寓相关的25亿），约占其整体贷款规模的7%。这对于单个银行而言风险确实不算小，但是对于整体金融体系而言也的确影响有限，尤其是考虑了纽约地区的特殊性之后。除此之外，值得注意的是美国历史上也很少出现商业地产带来“大问题”的情况。一个很重要的原因是商业地产对于消费的外溢效应可能比较有限。典型的可参考1990s初——1989年至1993年商业地产价格最大跌幅超过20%，而美国经济经历了史上最弱的衰退（1991年美国实际GDP仅下跌0.1%）。当然，宏观环境的作用也不容小视，“当好消息就是好消息”，基本面和市场的心态发生了明显的变化。2024年以来美国市场最大的一点变化就是心态更好了，去年往往会带来市场调整的“好数据”，今年似乎成了市场稳步上升的“压舱石”，主要体现在三个方面：第一，经济似乎确实比预期的要好。我们在之前的报告里说过一般而言，由于季节性和气候等因素，美国经济在第一季度容易出现“鬼故事”，不过今年经济状况在往更加积极的方向转变，尤其是私人固定资产投资和私人库存（图12）。第二，“软着陆”的心态更加深入人心。如图13所示，与2023年3月不同的是，当前居民的信心和经济数据形成了“共振”，叠加对美联储降息的“坚信”，成为市场底气的重要来源。第三，小盘股开始出现超额收益。如图14和15所示，这往往是经济逐步走出衰退或者软着陆时期的重要市场表现，中小企业会展现出更强的弹性。风险提示：经济超预期韧性导致美联储重回加息，美国中小银行风险超预期暴露，拖累全球市场和经济；美国经济超预期陷入衰退，美联储意外提前大幅降息；地缘政治紧张，金融制裁频发，导致金融风险意外暴露。', 'content': '今年什么能够迫使美联储提前“松口”？比起让市场屡次“失望”的通胀和失业数据，金融风险可能是重要的突破口。今年年初美国银行业就给美联储来了个“压力测试”——纽约社区银行（NYCB）的业绩暴雷和评级下调，股价腰斩。不过从市场和政策的反应来讲，这次冲击的“强度”明显不够的。标普500依旧执着地站上5000，而首次降息预期的预期“一拖再拖”。我们测算纽约社区银行当前涉险贷款规模约为59亿美元（约占整体贷款规模的7%），这种区域性、局部性的风险暴露确实难以撼动美联储的定力，而随着“软着陆+货币宽松”的主流观点越来越“根深蒂固”，股市buythedip的行为也愈发突出。美国银行的幺蛾子在哪？这次确实有点不一样。与去年硅谷银行（SVB）事件不同，这次纽约社区银行的压力来源主是商业地产的问题，这其中既有一般性的困境，例如疫情后远程办公的兴起、办公楼空置率居高不下，也有其自身特殊的区域性、业务性的问题，例如纽约地区对于公寓租金的限制。综合而言，由于规模可控、区域有限，且从历史上看商业地产对于实体经济的溢出影响不大，这次纽约社区银行“压力测试”的力度确实仍欠火候：问题矛头指向的是商业地产。硅���银行和纽约社区银行都是规模较大的区域性银行，资产规模分别达2118亿（2022年）和1163亿美元。不过两者的业务和资产构成的差异加大，前者手中持有大量的证券资产，而后者的业务重心则在商业地产相关的贷款和租赁。2023年3月硅谷银行的问题主要来自于投资国债带来的巨额损失，以及对于存款保险的疏忽（只有约10%的存款受保护）。相较而言，纽约社区银行证券投资规模不大，而且被保险的存款占比也达67%。根据最新的预披露信息，其主要的问题在于因商业地产而导致的信贷损失准备以及为满足更加严格的监管（因为资产规模超过1000亿美元）而大幅削减分红、增加同业融资。第四季度，纽约社区银行信贷损失准备达5.5亿美元、大超预期，其中1.85亿的坏账核销来自于办公楼和公寓贷款，不过区别在于前者的问题具有一般性，而后者则更多反映了纽银的“地方特色”。“办公楼”问题具有普遍性，不过体量不大且多集中在“尾部”。疫情后远程办公等兴起，全美办公楼的空置率出现明显上升、超过2008年金融危机时期，同时在商业地产相关贷款中，办公楼的出险率也是居高不下。不过从体量和分布而言，这个问题可能不大。从纽约社区银行自身来看，截至2023Q3，其持有的办公楼相关贷款的规模约为34亿美元，占整体“贷款和租赁”资产的4%、总资产的3%。从全美市场来看，根据美联储的数据，2023年第二季度美国商业地产相关信贷在3万亿美元左右，在所有非金融机构信贷占比约7.4%，大部分集中在资产规模在500亿美元至1000亿美元的小银行手中，其中银行持有的办公楼和商业中心相关贷款约为7100亿美元，小银行持有约5100亿元（占总资产的6.9%）。从到期规模上看，以CMS口径作为代表，2024年办公楼相关贷款的到期规模略超300亿美元（与2023年10月IMF的测算基本一致）。不仅是美国的问题，可能更是全球的问题，根据MSCI的数据，2023年上半年美国中心商业区办公楼的贷款中国际型银行占比25%，区域和本地的银行则占17%。无独有偶，今年初日本青空银行（AozoraBank)也预告 2023 年财年可能迎来近 15 年首次亏损， 主要来自于对美国商业办公楼的投资。对于纽约社区银行而言，具有浓厚地方色彩的“多户型公寓”问题可能更加头疼。 Moody 在下调纽银评级的报告中明确表示该银行业务高度集中于纽约地区的多户型公寓，“历史上表现得很好， 但是这一轮周期可能不同”，一方面，高利率和高通胀使得再融资风险和维护成本明显上升；另一方面，可能更重要的是纽约州政府 2019 年颁布的租金管理相关法令（《住房稳定与租户保护法》）， 这使得房东难以大幅提高租金，导致相关资产估值大幅缩水。纽约社区银行是全美第二大多户型公寓贷款人（multi-family portfoliolender），尤其在纽约地区处于领先地位（图 9），根据华尔街日报的数据 ， 其 中 针 对 纽 约 市 政 府 划 定 的 租 金 稳 定 公 寓 （ rent-stabilizedapartments）的贷款体量约 180 亿美元， 约为 2023Q4 总贷款规模的21.5%。2019年新法案颁布之前，租金稳定公寓是投资机构的“香饽饽”。房东可以在达到一定的租金/空置或者维修等条件后将公寓移出政府的“租金稳定名单”，进而可以按照市场水平来收取租金，资产估值水平也会大幅提升。2019年新法案颁布后，“退出”途径被取消、租金水平被严格控制，必须遵守租金指导委员会的指导，2023年纽约该类型的公寓租金最大涨幅仅为3%。自法案颁布以来，相关公寓的售价平均跌幅约为34%。根据纽约社区银行的口径，当前约14%的相关贷款（约25亿美元）面临一定的违约风险。因此我们大致可以测算纽约社区银行当前面临风险的贷款规模约为59亿美元（办公楼相关的34亿+租金稳定公寓相关的25亿），约占其整体贷款规模的7%。这对于单个银行而言风险确实不算小，但是对于整体金融体系而言也的确影响有限，尤其是考虑了纽约地区的特殊性之后。除此之外，值得注意的是美国历史上也很少出现商业地产带来“大问题”的情况。一个很重要的原因是商业地产对于消费的外溢效应可能比较有限。典型的可参考1990s初——1989年至1993年商业地产价格最大跌幅超过20%，而美国经济经历了史上最弱的衰退（1991年美国实际GDP仅下跌0.1%）。当然，宏观环境的作用也不容小视，“当好消息就是好消息”，基本面和市场的心态发生了明显的变化。2024年以来美国市场最大的一点变化就是心态更好了，去年往往会带来市场调整的“好数据”，今年似乎成了市场稳步上升的“压舱石”，主要体现在三个方面：第一，经济似乎确实比预期的要好。我们在之前的报告里说过一般而言，由于季节性和气候等因素，美国经济在第一季度容易出现“鬼故事”，不过今年经济状况在往更加积极的方向转变，尤其是私人固定资产投资和私人库存（图12）。第二，“软着陆”的心态更加深入人心。如图13所示，与2023年3月不同的是，当前居民的信心和经济数据形成了“共振”，叠加对美联储降息的“坚信”，成为市场底气的重要来源。第三，小盘股开始出现超额收益。如图14和15所示，这往往是经济逐步走出衰退或者软着陆时期的重要市场表现，中小企业会展现出更强的弹性。风险提示：经济超预期韧性导致美联储重回加息，美国中小银行风险超预期暴露，拖累全球市场和经济；美国经济超预期陷入衰退，美联储意外提前大幅降息；地缘政治紧张，金融制裁频发，导致金融风险意外暴露。', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': 0.06880441680550575, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '9LAVF7VIKQEL0E2UPJ5LJREK1RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:24:35 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '9LAVF7VIKQEL0E2UPJ5LJREK1RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b4923943-385e-5556-85c2-8f8c1c0cb84f'), 'title': 'Comments on January inflation data: abundant supply, Spring Festival in the wrong month, CPI lower than expected', 'author': 'Liu Lu,Zheng Zichen', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-16', 'encodeUrl': 'yjRYC83g84PiWPZ80zEfBtuw6D6oFWpyHtPxGJJuinQ=', 'researcher': '刘璐,郑子辰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000292335', '11000314731'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=yjRYC83g84PiWPZ80zEfBtuw6D6oFWpyHtPxGJJuinQ=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402161622090570_1.pdf?1708081745000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402161622090570_1.pdf?1708081745000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on January inflation data: abundant supply, Spring Festival in the wrong month, CPI lower than expected', 'originalAuthor': '刘璐,郑子辰', 'originalContent': '事项：2月8日，国家统计局公布1月物价数据：1月CPI同比为-0.8%（环比0.3%），低于Wind一致预期0.3个百分点；PPI同比为-2.5%（环比为-0.2%），与Wind一致预期相符。食品项拖累CPI环比低于季节性水平，核心CPI环比上行。从食品项来看，一方面，23年同期春节在1月、24年在2月，受春节错月的高基数影响，拖累食品CPI表现；另一方面，受供给充裕影响，和春节同落在2月初的19年、21年相比，食品CPI环比较季节性也偏弱。食品项肉蛋菜果的环比表现均低于季节性平均，同比分别影响CPI下行0.39、0.05、0.32、0.21个百分点，最终拖累食品项CPI同比降幅走扩2.2个百分点。从非食品项来看，非食品CPI环比多数也略低于季节性，相对表现较好的是生活用品，整体高于季节性0.9个百分点。剔除食品、油价影响后的核心CPI环比上行0.3%，好于季节性水平，反映出居民消费或在稳步修复。PPI同比降幅收窄，各分项PPI表现多有改善。从大类来看，生产资料、生活资料PPI分别下降3.0%、1.1%，降幅比上月分别收窄0.3、0.1个百分点。细分来看，各分项回落降幅大多收窄：上游和中游表现相对不错，其各个分项环比读数多数上行或降幅收窄，如受基建提振影响黑色产业链延续了23年12月以来的优异表现，石油产业开采受油价回升影响本月同比读数转正、环比降幅收窄；下游制造表现相对偏弱。展望2月，受春节因素影响2月物价同比或上行。24年春节较23年错月，对1、2月物价产生一定影响，根据我们的远月SARIMA预测模型，2-3月环比读数约为0.2%、-0.5%，同比读数约为-0.1%、-0.3%，2月春节出行需求或拉动服务价格走升，年货购买也将在一定程度上推动相关产品价格走升。PPI同比或波动走升。国际原油自23年12月以来价格持续上行，拉动石油产业链价格上行；基建陆续施工支撑黑色金属表现。综合来看，根据ARIMA预测模型，我们预计2-3月PPI环比读数为0.0%、0.2%，同比读数为-2.6%、-2.4%。风险提示：1）货币政策转向；2）通胀超预期；3）海外货币政策收缩持续性超预期。', 'content': \"Matter: On February 8, the National Bureau of Statistics released price data for January: CPI in January was -0.8% year-on-year (0.3% month-on-month), 0.3 percentage points lower than Wind's consensus expectation; PPI was -2.5% year-on-year (-0.2 month-on-month) %), consistent with Wind’s consensus expectations. Food items dragged down CPI below seasonal levels month-on-month, and core CPI rose month-on-month. From the perspective of food items, on the one hand, the Spring Festival fell in January in 2023 and in February in 2024. Affected by the high base of the Spring Festival in the wrong month, food CPI performance was dragged down; on the other hand, affected by abundant supply, it fell at the same time as the Spring Festival. Compared with 2019 and 2021 in early February, the seasonality of the food CPI ring was also weaker. The month-on-month performance of food items, meat, eggs, vegetables and fruits was lower than the seasonal average, affecting the CPI to fall by 0.39, 0.05, 0.32, and 0.21 percentage points year-on-year respectively, ultimately dragging down the year-on-year CPI decline of food items by 2.2 percentage points. From the perspective of non-food items, most non-food CPIs are slightly lower than seasonal ones month-on-month. The relatively better performance is daily necessities, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than seasonal items overall. After excluding the impact of food and oil prices, the core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, which is better than the seasonal level, reflecting that household consumption may be steadily recovering. The year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed, and the performance of various PPI sub-categories improved. From the perspective of major categories, the PPI of production materials and living materials fell by 3.0% and 1.1% respectively, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month. Looking at the breakdown, most of the declines in each sub-item narrowed: the upstream and midstream performed relatively well, and most of the month-on-month readings of each sub-item increased or the decline narrowed. For example, affected by the boost of infrastructure, the black industry chain has continued since December 23 Affected by the rebound in oil prices, the year-on-year reading this month turned positive and the month-on-month decline narrowed. The performance of downstream manufacturing was relatively weak. Looking forward to February, prices may rise year-on-year in February due to the Spring Festival factors. The Spring Festival in 2024 falls on the wrong month compared to 2023, which has a certain impact on prices in January and February. According to our far-month SARIMA forecast model, the month-on-month readings from February to March are about 0.2% and -0.5%, and the year-on-year readings are about -0.1%. , -0.3%. The demand for travel during the Spring Festival in February may drive up service prices, and the purchase of new year goods will also drive up the prices of related products to a certain extent. PPI may rise year-on-year. The price of international crude oil has continued to rise since December 23, driving up the price of the petroleum industry chain; the continuous construction of infrastructure supports the performance of ferrous metals. Taken together, according to the ARIMA forecast model, we expect the PPI month-on-month readings from February to March to be 0.0% and 0.2%, and the year-on-year readings to be -2.6% and -2.4%. Risk warning: 1) Monetary policy shifts; 2) Inflation exceeds expectations; 3) Overseas monetary policy contraction continues to exceed expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('f0bf46c8-f9a0-5c60-8068-4d47b05fe269'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9465453345328569, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '25CDLUIJK21LJSED4C7Q0VL2VFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:24:38 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '25CDLUIJK21LJSED4C7Q0VL2VFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5fcd9f4f-28a2-54bf-8cba-5594fcd0456a'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the fourth quarter monetary policy report: the two main lines of monetary policy', 'author': 'Song Xuetao, Zhang Wei', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-15', 'encodeUrl': 'xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWrRL6FkQxQWnLDqHw75cXdE4=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛,张伟', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658', '11000305734'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWrRL6FkQxQWnLDqHw75cXdE4=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621811706_1.pdf?1708012989000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621811706_1.pdf?1708012989000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the fourth quarter monetary policy report: the two main lines of monetary policy', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛,张伟', 'originalContent': '整体来看，本次货政报告既有新导向下的中期工作部署（盘活存量、风险化解），也有根据内外部环境变化做出的短期政策调整（降低汇率要求、保障政府债券顺利发行），下一阶段的货币政策大概率将在这两条主线勾勒的框架下展开。风险提示：海外经济、主要央行货币政策存在不确定性，可能对国内货币政策产生影响。', 'content': 'Overall, this cargo administration report includes both mid-term work arrangements under the new guidance (revitalizing stocks and resolving risks), as well as short-term policy adjustments based on changes in the internal and external environment (lowering exchange rate requirements, ensuring the smooth issuance of government bonds). The next stage of monetary policy will most likely be carried out within the framework outlined by these two main lines. Risk warning: There are uncertainties in overseas economies and the monetary policies of major central banks, which may have an impact on domestic monetary policies.', 'authorid': UUID('5401fe2c-be87-59ac-9de2-31f3e8036e8b'), 'sentimentScore': 0.02278098091483116, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '9BL6TGLSJ05DT65O7LUJJKINQRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:24:40 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '9BL6TGLSJ05DT65O7LUJJKINQRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('72c1b3b4-b725-582f-a232-581503ed7e20'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Comments: Comments on the Q4 Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Report-The new characteristics of credit focus more on “quality”', 'author': 'He Ning', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-15', 'encodeUrl': 'xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWrRWvAnA8XRVeERf8Yc9q44g=', 'researcher': '何宁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWrRWvAnA8XRVeERf8Yc9q44g=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621811703_1.pdf?1708012682000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621811703_1.pdf?1708012682000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Comments: Comments on the Q4 Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Report-The new characteristics of credit focus more on “quality”', 'originalAuthor': '何宁', 'originalContent': '事件：2024年2月8日央行发布《2023年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》（后文简称《报告》）。经济&物价：经济将延续回升向好；保持物价在合理水平（1）《报告》指出，全球经济动能减弱、海外选举和发达经济体降息进程或带来不确定性。海外选举大年，政治经济形势的不确定性可能增大；主要发达经济体高利率或也产生滞后影响。国内延续回升向好、仍面临需求不足和产能过剩等问题。国内经济大循环存在堵点，“需求不足与产能过剩的矛盾较为突出”。总体看，有利因素强于不利因素，要扎实推动高质量发展，在发展中解决问题。（2）物价：央行要求保持物价在合理水平，认为2024年物价总体温和回升央行指出物价偏低背后是需求不足，政策将支持扩内需。《报告》认为，2023年四季度以来物价水平偏低背后原因是“经济有效需求不足、总供求恢复不同步”。2024年，基数效应减弱叠加需求将逐渐恢复，预计物价总体温和回升。我们认为，CPI同比或将继续温和上行，PPI未来或仍将延续回升态势。中长期看，物价上行通道或已开启，若有需求端政策驱动，CPI、PPI或将有超预期回升弹性。货币政策：我们判断降准后降息可期，信贷新特点更重“质”而非“量”货币政策方面，《报告》指出“稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效”，指向总量政策将稳中有松，降准后降息可期；且关注提高资金使用效率、盘活存量贷款，以及“准确把握货币信贷供需规律和新特点”。（1）货币端，延续稳中有松，我们判断降准后可能还有降息，以及做好对财政发债的配合，保持货币市场利率平稳。一方面，“维持流动性合理充裕”的要求下，判断2月降准落地后，2-3月可能还有降息，包括政策利率和LPR。另一方面，《报告》指出“搭配运用多种货币政策工具，保障政府债券顺利发行”，在2024年财政适度加力的背景下，预计货币将做好配合，保持货币市场利率平稳。（2）信用端，准确把握货币信贷供需规律和新特点，更重“质”而非“量”。第一，信贷规律新特点要求调结构、盘存量、更均衡。《报告》在专栏1指出三个要点：一是经济结构转型加快推进，要求信贷高质量投放，也即“增”在“五篇大文章”，而“减”在地产和地方融资平台。二是更多注重盘活低效存量金融资源，包括不良贷款核销、提升直接融资占比等。三是减少对月度货币信贷高频数据的过度关注，指向信贷节奏或将更加均衡，减少“冲时点”等不合理的信贷投放。第二，预计2024年可能适度提升物价。《报告》指出“保持社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配”（此前为与名义GDP匹配），指向注重物价目标的实现。第三，聚焦重点、合理适度提供支持，主要指科技、绿色、普惠、养老、数字金融等五篇大文章，民营经济，保障性住房、“平急两用“基础设施和城中村改造三大工程。汇率：人民币贬值压力或相对缓解，但央行稳汇率态度仍较为积极人民币贬值压力有望缓解，政策端稳汇率仍积极。《报告》删除“坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置”表述。2023年央行的汇率政策整体相对积极，2024年，我们认为央行的汇率政策或仍将以稳定市场预期、防止大幅波动为主要基调。随着美联储政策转向和国内基本面回升，人民币的贬值压力或相对缓解，但央行对汇率政策的态度仍然较为积极。防风险：坚决守住不发生系统性风险的底线，重点是金融、化债、地产《报告》要求“持续有效防范化解中小金融机构、地方债务、房地产等重点领域风险，坚决守住不发生系统性风险的底线”。化债方面，合理运用债务重组、置换等手段，支持地方融资平台债务风险化解。地产方面，支持刚性和改善性住房需求、满足房企合理融资需求、支持“三大工程”建设，结合近期各地房地产项目“白名单”落地，广州上海等需求端放开，城改专项借款授信落地，有助于缓解地产风险，向新模式过渡。金融方面，推动化解中小金融机构风险，推动金融稳定法尽快出台。风险提示：经济超预期下行；政策力度不及预期。', 'content': 'Event: On February 8, 2024, the central bank released the \"China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2023\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Report\"). Economy & Prices: The economy will continue to rebound; keep prices at a reasonable level (1) The \"Report\" points out that the weakening of global economic momentum, overseas elections, and the process of interest rate cuts in developed economies may bring uncertainty. In the year of overseas elections, the uncertainty of the political and economic situation may increase; high interest rates in major developed economies may also have a lagging impact. Domestically, the domestic market continues to rebound and is still facing problems such as insufficient demand and overcapacity. There are blockages in the domestic economic cycle, and \"the contradiction between insufficient demand and overcapacity is more prominent.\" Overall, the favorable factors outweigh the unfavorable factors, and we must solidly promote high-quality development and solve problems during development. (2) Prices: The central bank requires prices to be maintained at a reasonable level, and believes that prices will generally recover moderately in 2024. The central bank pointed out that low prices are due to insufficient demand, and policies will support the expansion of domestic demand. The \"Report\" believes that the reason behind the low price level since the fourth quarter of 2023 is \"insufficient economic effective demand and out-of-sync recovery of total supply and demand.\" In 2024, as the base effect weakens and demand will gradually recover, prices are expected to rebound moderately overall. We believe that CPI may continue to rise moderately year-on-year, and PPI may continue to rebound in the future. In the medium to long term, the upward channel for prices may have opened. If driven by demand-side policies, CPI and PPI may have greater resilience than expected. Monetary policy: We judge that interest rate cuts are expected after the RRR cut, and the new characteristics of credit focus more on \"quality\" rather than \"quantity\". In terms of monetary policy, the \"Report\" points out that \"sound monetary policy must be flexible, moderate, precise and effective\", pointing to the aggregate policy It will be stable but relaxed, and interest rate cuts can be expected after the RRR cut; and attention will be paid to improving the efficiency of fund use, revitalizing existing loans, and \"accurately grasping the laws and new characteristics of money and credit supply and demand.\" (1) On the monetary side, it continues to be stable with some easing. We judge that interest rates may be cut after the RRR cut, and we must cooperate with fiscal bond issuance to keep money market interest rates stable. On the one hand, under the requirement of \"maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity\", it is judged that after the implementation of the reserve requirement ratio reduction in February, there may be further interest rate cuts from February to March, including policy interest rates and LPR. On the other hand, the \"Report\" pointed out that \"a variety of monetary policy tools should be used together to ensure the smooth issuance of government bonds.\" Under the background of moderate fiscal strengthening in 2024, the currency is expected to cooperate well and keep money market interest rates stable. (2) On the credit side, accurately grasp the laws and new characteristics of money and credit supply and demand, and pay more attention to “quality” rather than “quantity”. First, the new characteristics of credit laws require adjustments to the structure and inventory to make it more balanced. The \"Report\" points out three key points in column 1: First, the economic structural transformation is accelerating, requiring high-quality credit, that is, the \"increase\" comes from the \"five major articles\", while the \"decrease\" comes from real estate and local financing platforms. The second is to pay more attention to revitalizing inefficient existing financial resources, including writing off non-performing loans and increasing the proportion of direct financing. The third is to reduce excessive attention to monthly high-frequency data on money and credit, pointing to a more balanced credit rhythm and reducing unreasonable credit releases such as \"time rush points\". Second, it is expected that prices may increase moderately in 2024. The \"Report\" points out that \"maintaining social financing scale and money supply to match the expected goals of economic growth and price level\" (previously matching nominal GDP), pointing to focusing on the realization of price targets. Third, focus on key points and provide support in a reasonable and appropriate manner, mainly referring to five major articles such as technology, green, inclusive, elderly care, and digital finance, and three articles on private economy, affordable housing, \"both leisure and emergency\" infrastructure, and urban village transformation. big project. Exchange rate: The pressure on RMB depreciation may be relatively relieved, but the central bank\\'s attitude towards stabilizing the exchange rate is still relatively positive. The pressure on RMB depreciation is expected to be eased, and the policy side is still active on stabilizing the exchange rate. The \"Report\" deletes the statement \"resolutely correct procyclical market behavior and resolutely deal with behavior that disrupts market order.\" In 2023, the central bank\\'s exchange rate policy will be relatively positive overall. In 2024, we believe that the central bank\\'s exchange rate policy may still be based on stabilizing market expectations and preventing large fluctuations. With the policy shift of the Federal Reserve and the recovery of domestic fundamentals, the depreciation pressure on the RMB may be relatively relieved, but the central bank\\'s attitude towards exchange rate policy is still relatively positive. Risk prevention: Resolutely hold on to the bottom line of no systemic risks, focusing on finance, debt management, and real estate. The \"Report\" requires \"continuously and effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas such as small and medium-sized financial institutions, local debt, and real estate, and resolutely hold on to the bottom line of no systemic risks. bottom line\". In terms of resolving debt, we will rationally use debt restructuring, replacement and other means to support local financing platforms in resolving debt risks. In terms of real estate, we support the demand for rigid and improved housing, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate companies, and support the construction of the \"three major projects\". Combined with the recent implementation of the \"white list\" of real estate projects in various places, the liberalization of demand sides such as Guangzhou and Shanghai, and the granting of credit for special loans for urban reform Implementation will help alleviate real estate risks and transition to a new model. In terms of finance, we will promote the resolution of risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions and the early promulgation of the Financial Stability Law. Risk warning: The economy declines more than expected; policy intensity is less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('52a5389c-6434-575d-ad8f-dccb9d09cd11'), 'sentimentScore': 0.18925245106220245, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'BE5C0KQE46193JTQ8ILE1VB4C3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:24:43 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'BE5C0KQE46193JTQ8ILE1VB4C3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('91995fb9-3f1d-5b13-ad27-3eff791434f3'), 'title': 'Interpretation of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2023: Rebalancing of Structure, Interest Rates and Rhythm', 'author': 'Zhang Jun, Xu Dongshi, Zhan Lu', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-15', 'encodeUrl': 'xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWrXSEto4no6dqXReB1g9G2eo=', 'researcher': '章俊,许冬石,詹璐', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000185520', '11000208436'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWrXSEto4no6dqXReB1g9G2eo=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621811677_1.pdf?1708012096000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621811677_1.pdf?1708012096000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2023: Rebalancing of Structure, Interest Rates and Rhythm', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,许冬石,詹璐', 'originalContent': '核心观点：央行发布2023年四季度货币政策执行报告，货币政策基调延续中央经济工作会议的部署“灵活适度、精准有效”，重点工作则是对央行2024年工作会议部署的落实和推动。我们的分析：结构：首次提出“合理把握债券与信贷两个最大融资市场的关系”，扩大直接融资，社融结构实现再平衡。贷款增速可能回落，社融结构将实现直接和间接融资的结构再平衡。公司信用类债券和金融债券发行可能提速。提升直接融资的要求与当下中国经济结构转型的新方向相匹配。本次报告的专栏1《准确把握货币信贷供需规律和新特点》提出“先进制造、科技创新、绿色低碳、数字经济等新兴产业蓬勃发展，这些新动能领域与直接融资的金融支持模式更为适配，也会对贷款形成良性替代”。利率：存款和贷款、信贷市场和债券市场、大银行和中小银行之间的利率关系的再平衡，发挥利率自律机制作用是关键。报告的专栏2《利率自律机制十年：市场化改革的重要保障》阐述了理顺三个利率关系的关键。当前银行净息差仍是制约贷款利率进一步下行的重要因素，2023年9月虽然进行新一轮存款利率下调，但三季度末商业银行净息差为1.73%，环比二季度再次下行。存款利率的下调并未带来净息差的转好，发挥利率自律机制作用，维护市场竞争秩序，理顺存款和贷款利率关系有重要意义。提升直接融资的要求需要理顺信贷和债券市场的利率关系。专栏2提出的理顺大银行和中小银行之间的利率关系，可以和报告中提到的“加强货币市场宏观审慎管理，完善货币市场流动性监测机制”结合起来理解，未来对于流动性分层，以及金融机构期限错配可能引发的流动性风险的关注可能会进一步提升。节奏：信贷投放节奏回到由实体融资需求主导，金融机构业绩冲量的影响将进一步弱化，传统信贷投放大小月的波动将一定程度上被平滑，信贷投放节奏再平衡。报告多处强调引导金融机构贷款投放，总量适度、节奏平稳。“平抑不正当竞争、“冲时点”等不合理的信贷投放，而不是改变金融机构信贷投放正常的季节规律，更好地促进信贷投放节奏与实体经济发展的实际需要相匹配”。我们的判断和政策展望：信贷进入高质量投放阶段；流动性管理工具使用的前瞻性将提升；“促消费、稳投资、扩内需”“促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降”的背景下1季度仍有可能降息2024年信贷增速可能回落，但金融服务实体经济的质效将提升。一方面“房地产发展模式重大转型、地方债务风险防范化解，这两块贷款需求都明显下降”；另一方面盘活低效存量、为维持商业银行稳健经营而加大不良贷款核销，“推动必要的市场化出清”会给贷款增长施加压力；同时直接融资占比提升对贷款形成良性替代。流动性管理工具使用的前瞻性将提升。本次报告首次提出“加强货币市场宏观审慎管理，完善货币市场流动性监测机制”，强调“搭配运用多种货币政策工具，保障政府债券顺利发行”，“货币市场利率平稳运行”，公开市场操作、降准等工具使用的前瞻性将进一步提升。', 'content': 'Core point of view: The central bank released the monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2023. The tone of the monetary policy continues to be \"flexible, appropriate, precise and effective\" as deployed by the Central Economic Work Conference. The key task is to implement and promote the deployment of the central bank\\'s 2024 work conference. Our analysis: Structure: For the first time, it is proposed to \"reasonably grasp the relationship between the two largest financing markets, bonds and credit\", expand direct financing, and achieve rebalancing of the social financing structure. Loan growth may slow down, and the social financing structure will achieve structural rebalancing of direct and indirect financing. The issuance of corporate credit bonds and financial bonds may accelerate. The requirements for improving direct financing are consistent with the current new direction of China\\'s economic structural transformation. Column 1 of this report, \"Accurately Grasp the Laws and New Characteristics of Money and Credit Supply and Demand,\" points out that \"advanced manufacturing, technological innovation, green and low-carbon, digital economy and other emerging industries are booming. These new energy areas are more closely related to the financial support model of direct financing. Adaptation will also form a healthy substitute for loans.\" Interest rates: Rebalancing the interest rate relationships between deposits and loans, credit markets and bond markets, large banks and small and medium-sized banks, and bringing into play the role of interest rate self-discipline mechanisms are key. Column 2 of the report, \"Ten Years of Interest Rate Self-Discipline Mechanism: An Important Guarantee for Market-oriented Reform,\" explains the key to straightening out the relationship between the three interest rates. The current net interest margin of banks is still an important factor restricting the further decline of loan interest rates. Although a new round of deposit interest rate cuts will be carried out in September 2023, the net interest margin of commercial banks was 1.73% at the end of the third quarter, falling again from the second quarter. The reduction in deposit interest rates has not brought about an improvement in the net interest margin. It is of great significance to give full play to the role of the interest rate self-discipline mechanism, maintain the order of market competition, and straighten out the relationship between deposit and loan interest rates. Improving direct financing requirements requires rationalizing the interest rate relationship in credit and bond markets. The rationalization of the interest rate relationship between large banks and small and medium-sized banks proposed in column 2 can be understood in conjunction with the \"strengthening macro-prudential management of the money market and improving the money market liquidity monitoring mechanism\" mentioned in the report. In the future, liquidity stratification , and concerns about liquidity risks that may arise from maturity mismatches among financial institutions may further increase. Rhythm: The pace of credit issuance will return to being dominated by physical financing needs, and the impact of financial institutions\\' performance impulse will be further weakened. The monthly fluctuations in the size of traditional credit issuance will be smoothed to a certain extent, and the rhythm of credit issuance will be rebalanced. The report emphasizes in many places the guidance of financial institutions in lending, with an appropriate amount and a steady pace. \"Suppressing unfair competition, \"time rush\" and other unreasonable credit extension, rather than changing the normal seasonal pattern of credit extension by financial institutions, to better promote the pace of credit extension to match the actual needs of the development of the real economy.\" Our judgment and policy outlook: Credit has entered a stage of high-quality issuance; the use of liquidity management tools will be more forward-looking; in the context of “promoting consumption, stabilizing investment, and expanding domestic demand” and “promoting the stability and decline of comprehensive social financing costs”1 Quarterly interest rate cuts are still possible and credit growth may slow down in 2024, but the quality and efficiency of financial services to the real economy will improve. On the one hand, “with the major transformation of the real estate development model and the prevention and resolution of local debt risks, the demand for loans in these two areas has dropped significantly”; on the other hand, in order to revitalize inefficient stocks and increase the write-off of non-performing loans to maintain the sound operation of commercial banks, “promote the necessary \"Market-based clearing\" will put pressure on loan growth; at the same time, the increase in the proportion of direct financing will form a healthy substitute for loans. The forward-looking use of liquidity management tools will increase. This report proposes for the first time \"strengthening macro-prudential management of the money market and improving the money market liquidity monitoring mechanism\", emphasizing \"the use of a variety of monetary policy tools to ensure the smooth issuance of government bonds\", \"the smooth operation of money market interest rates\", and open market operations The forward-looking use of tools such as reserve requirement ratio and reserve requirement ratio reduction will be further enhanced.', 'authorid': UUID('9691e2af-b977-525d-9856-67ec9bb87ebf'), 'sentimentScore': 0.21581263095140457, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'P26FEG0OJB25F551TBSFLOJEH7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:24:46 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'P26FEG0OJB25F551TBSFLOJEH7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f41f168a-337b-5e33-b430-0f96ff5c1df3'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Comments: Core CPI continues super-seasonal recovery, and price upward channel may open', 'author': 'He Ning', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-15', 'encodeUrl': 'xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWre0LxVoy/pI5XGbpx5352DU=', 'researcher': '何宁', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWre0LxVoy/pI5XGbpx5352DU=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621807590_1.pdf?1708010537000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621807590_1.pdf?1708010537000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Comments: Core CPI continues super-seasonal recovery, and price upward channel may open', 'originalAuthor': '何宁', 'originalContent': '事件：1月CPI同比-0.8%，预期-0.5%，前值-0.3%；PPI同比-2.5%，预期-2.5%，前值-2.7%。服务与实物消费价格延续修复趋势，CPI环比涨幅扩大1月CPI同比降幅扩大，同比较前值下降0.5个百分点至-0.8%，环比涨幅扩大，较前值回升0.2个百分点至0.3%。(1)食品项：蔬果价格带动食品项环比涨幅收窄1月CPI食品项环比涨幅收窄，较前值下降0.5个百分点至0.4%。蔬菜方面，雨雪天气有所减少，蔬菜价格上升速度放缓，往后看，2月进入春节，蔬菜价格或将季节性回升。猪肉方面，生猪供给充足，猪肉价格仍在磨底，往后看，春节后进入消费淡季，且供给充足，预计猪肉价格仍将处于低位区间。(2)非食品项：环比由负转正，家用器具、旅游价格超季节性回升1月CPI非食品项环比由负转正，较前值上升0.3个百分点至0.2%。环比涨幅明显上行的行业有旅游、交通工具用燃料、家庭服务等。涨幅较前值明显下降的行业有通信工具、酒类等。季节性看，明显高于季节性的分项有家用器具、旅游、通信服务等；明显低于季节性的分项有医疗保健、交通工具用燃料、酒类等。(3)核心CPI环比涨幅扩大，中小企业经营与服务业景气度延续改善1月核心CPI同比涨幅收窄，较前值下降0.2个百分点至0.4%；环比涨幅扩大，较前值上升0.2个百分点至0.3%。结合1月服务业PMI、中国企业经营状况指数、服务CPI环比较前值均上升来看，12月中小企业经营与服务业景气度延续改善趋势。值得一提的是，继2023年12月核心CPI与服务CPI环比5个月以来首次高于季节性后，2024年1月核心CPI环比继续高于季节性，服务CPI环比与季节性大致相等，反映服务消费与实物消费需求修复趋势延续，建议对后续走势保持关注。PPI同环比均回升，大宗商品价格涨多跌少1月PPI同比降幅收窄，较前值上升0.2个百分点至-2.5%，环比降幅收窄，较前值上升0.1个百分点至-0.2%。(1)多重复合指标显示，上游成本普遍回升，下游价格表现分化1月CPI-PPI同比剪刀差、PPI生活资料-生产资料同比增速差、PPI-PPIRM同比增速差均下降；上游采掘工业、原材料工业、加工工业同比降幅较前值均收窄，下游食品、一般日用品价格同比较前值上升，衣着价格与前值持平，耐用品价格同比较前值下降。综合来看，若以同比为衡量基准，上游原材料成本普遍回升，下游消费品价格表现分化，反映价格传导仍有梗阻。(2)39个工业行业看，生产端扰动增加，大宗商品价格涨多跌少能源方面，美国产量下滑超预期叠加地缘溢价上升，国内石油链产品价格环比较前值回升，1月全国气温偏暖，整体需求释放有限，PPI煤炭开采和洗选业环比涨幅略有扩大。金属方面，需求有限，黑色金属采选环比涨幅收窄；国内降准而美联储降息节奏预期变化，有色价格震荡分化运行；需求淡季，非金属矿价格有所回落。预计2月CPI环比回升��同比转正；物价上行通道或已开启从CPI来看，食品项中蔬菜、猪肉价格已处低位，非食品项中核心CPI环比续超季节性走势，已显现一定积极因素，叠加低基数效应，CPI同比未来或将继续温和上行，我们初步预计2月CPI环比为0.6%左右，受低基数影响，同比或回升至0.3%左右，2024年全年平均同比在0%-1%区间。近期大宗商品价格震荡运行，但未来整体走势大概率仍将延续回升态势，我们预计2月PPI环比有所回升，同比有所回落，2024年全年平均同比在-1%-0%区间。往后看，随着需求内生修复叠加三大工程推进，实物工作量增加，或将提振商品及相关原材料消费需求，物价上行通道或已开启，在内生修复基础上，若有需求端提升物价政策驱动，CPI、PPI或将有超预期回升弹性。风险提示：政策变化超预期，大宗商品价格波动超预期。', 'content': 'Event: January CPI was -0.8% year-on-year, expected -0.5%, previous value -0.3%; PPI year-on-year -2.5%, expected -2.5%, previous value -2.7%. Consumer prices for services and physical goods continued to recover, and the month-on-month increase in CPI expanded. The year-on-year decrease in CPI in January expanded, falling 0.5 percentage points to -0.8% from the previous value. The month-on-month increase expanded, rising 0.2 percentage points to 0.3% from the previous value. (1) Food items: The price of fruits and vegetables drove the month-on-month increase in food items to narrow. The month-on-month increase in CPI food items in January narrowed, falling 0.5 percentage points to 0.4% from the previous value. In terms of vegetables, the rain and snow weather has reduced, and the increase in vegetable prices has slowed down. Looking forward, with the Spring Festival in February, vegetable prices may rebound seasonally. In terms of pork, the supply of live pigs is sufficient, and pork prices are still bottoming out. Looking forward, the off-season for consumption will enter after the Spring Festival, and the supply is sufficient, so pork prices are expected to remain in a low range. (2) Non-food items: From negative to positive month-on-month, household appliances and tourism prices rebounded super-seasonally. In January, CPI non-food items turned from negative to positive month-on-month, rising 0.3 percentage points to 0.2% from the previous value. Industries with significant month-on-month growth include tourism, fuel for transportation, and household services. Industries whose growth rate dropped significantly compared with the previous value include communication tools, alcohol, etc. In terms of seasonality, the sub-items that are significantly higher than the seasonality include household appliances, tourism, communication services, etc.; the sub-items that are significantly lower than the seasonality include medical care, fuel for transportation, alcohol, etc. (3) The month-on-month increase in core CPI expanded, and the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises and the service industry continued to improve. The year-on-year increase in core CPI in January narrowed, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value to 0.4%; the month-on-month increase expanded, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. to 0.3%. Based on the fact that the service industry PMI, China Enterprise Business Condition Index, and service CPI all increased compared with the previous values \\u200b\\u200bin January, the business climate of small and medium-sized enterprises and the service industry boom continued to improve in December. It is worth mentioning that after the core CPI and service CPI were higher than the seasonality for the first time in five months in December 2023, the core CPI in January 2024 continued to be higher than the seasonality, and the service CPI was roughly equal to the seasonality. It reflects that the recovery trend of service consumption and physical consumption demand continues, and it is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent trend. PPI rebounded year-on-month, while commodity prices rose more and fell less. The year-on-year decline in PPI in January narrowed, rising 0.2 percentage points from the previous value to -2.5%. The month-on-month decline narrowed, rising 0.1 percentage points from the previous value to -0.2%. (1) Multiple composite indicators show that upstream costs have generally rebounded, and downstream price performance has been differentiated. In January, the CPI-PPI year-on-year scissor difference, PPI living materials-production materials year-on-year growth rate difference, and PPI-PPIRM year-on-year growth rate difference all declined; the upstream mining industry, The year-on-year declines in the raw material industry and the processing industry both narrowed compared with the previous value. The prices of downstream food and general daily necessities increased compared with the previous value. The prices of clothing remained the same as the previous value. The prices of durable goods fell compared with the previous value. Taken together, if we use the year-on-year basis as the benchmark, upstream raw material costs have generally rebounded, and downstream consumer goods prices have diverged, reflecting that price transmission is still blocked. (2) Looking at 39 industrial industries, disturbances on the production side increased, and commodity prices rose more or less. In terms of energy, the U.S. production declined more than expected and geopolitical premiums increased. The prices of domestic petroleum chain products rebounded compared with the previous value. The national temperature in January was on the higher side. Warmth, overall demand release is limited, and the PPI coal mining and washing industry has slightly expanded month-on-month growth. In terms of metals, demand is limited, and the month-on-month increase in ferrous metal mining and processing has narrowed; domestic reserve requirement ratios have been lowered and the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has been expected to change, and non-ferrous metal prices have fluctuated and diverged; in the off-season of demand, non-metallic mineral prices have fallen back. It is expected that the CPI in February will rebound month-on-month and turn positive year-on-year; the upward channel for prices may have begun. From the CPI point of view, the prices of vegetables and pork in food items have been at low levels, and the core CPI in non-food items has continued to exceed the seasonal trend month-on-month, showing certain positive factors. , superimposed on the low base effect, the CPI may continue to rise moderately year-on-year in the future. We initially estimate that the CPI in February will be around 0.6% month-on-month. Affected by the low base, the year-on-year price may rise to around 0.3%. The average year-on-year average in 2024 will be between 0% and 0.6%. 1% interval. Commodity prices have fluctuated recently, but there is a high probability that the overall trend will continue to rebound in the future. We expect PPI to rebound month-on-month in February and fall year-on-year. The average year-on-year average in 2024 will be in the range of -1%-0%. Looking forward, with the advancement of the three major projects of endogenous restoration of demand and the increase in physical workload, consumption demand for commodities and related raw materials may be boosted, and the upward channel for prices may have been opened. On the basis of endogenous restoration, if there is demand on the Driven by improved price policies, CPI and PPI may have greater resilience than expected. Risk warning: Policy changes exceed expectations, and commodity prices fluctuate beyond expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('52a5389c-6434-575d-ad8f-dccb9d09cd11'), 'sentimentScore': 0.14897561073303223, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'H059UDOJNSPH2BJFIOK74313FFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:24:49 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'H059UDOJNSPH2BJFIOK74313FFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('311862cd-c88b-5726-87b1-b71df157cc76'), 'title': 'Macrodynamics Tracking Report: U.S. economic growth forecast for 2024 revised upward to 2%', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Fan Chengkai', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-15', 'encodeUrl': 'xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWredAQII4IYqOoPavSY6i4xg=', 'researcher': '钟正生,范城恺', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000369143'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWredAQII4IYqOoPavSY6i4xg=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621807540_1.pdf?1708010166000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621807540_1.pdf?1708010166000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macrodynamics Tracking Report: U.S. economic growth forecast for 2024 revised upward to 2%', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,范城恺', 'originalContent': '一、美国经济前景持续改善。2024年开年以来公布经济数据显示，美国2023年四季度经济增长超预期强劲，且多数高频经济数据指向积极，暗示美国经济增长势头需再评估。我们在此前预测基础上，上修2024年美国实际GDP增长预测0.4个百分点至2.0%。其中，1）上修私人消费增长预测0.3个百分点至1.8%，其中商品和服务消费预计分别增长1.8%和1.7%。2）上修私人投资增长预测1个百分点至2.1%，其中住宅和非住宅投资预计分别增长1.5%和1.8%，私人库存变动预计小幅拉动投资。3）上修2024年美国政府支出增长预测0.3个百分点至2.2%。二、降息预期仍待修正。1）就业方面，考虑到新增非农较强、劳动力人口修复遇阻等，上修2024年一季度新增非农均值预测，并小幅下修年末失业率预测至4.0%，略低于美联储最新预测的4.1%。2）通胀方面，预计2024年四季度PCE和核心PCE同比均为2.4%左右，与美联储最新预测基本一致。近期数据指向供应链压力抬头，为通胀前景增添变数。3）货币政策方面，结合美联储近期讲话的信号，维持“2024年美联储降息3次左右，首次降息或在二季度，降息节奏非连贯”的判断。对比来看，截至2月7日，CME FedWatch显示的全年至少降息5次概率仍达71%。三、“宽松交易”更需耐心。1）美债：小幅拓宽10年美债利率预测区间上限，全年波动区间预计为3.5-4.2%。一方面，预计10年美债利率在4%以上的时间可能更长。另一方面，全年来看，10年美债利率具备下行空间，主因美联储开启降息的方向不变。此外，美联储预计于3月讨论并给出具体的放缓缩表指引，将部分缓解流动性担忧，增加了美债利率回落的概率。2)美股：预计美股单边上行难度阶段加大，但全年仍有望取得正收益。今年以来截至2月6日，标普500指数已累涨3.9%（年化可高达36%）。但若降息预期继续降温、美债利率保持高位，美股估值及风险偏好或受一定压制，可能出现震荡调整压力；待美联储降息路径确认，10年美债利率降至4%以下后，或有更好的上涨环境。3）美元：拓宽美元指数预测区间上限，全年波动区间预计在95-105。如果美联储利率不发生大幅调整，那么美元指数的方向将更加取决于非美经济表现。欧洲方面，“美强欧弱”的经济前景尚未看到明显转折，令欧元持续承压。日本方面，日银转向决策很可能取决于美联储降息决策，即美联储推迟降息，或令日银考虑推迟转向以规避日债利率过度攀升风险。问题在于，这可能加大日元汇率的波动幅度。尽管美元近期强势，也不宜低估未来日银转向、日元升值的可能。风险提示：美国经济超预期下行，美国通胀超预期回落，美国金融风险超预期上升，非美经济和政策超预期变化等。', 'content': '1. The U.S. economic outlook continues to improve. Economic data released since the beginning of 2024 shows that the U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 was stronger than expected, and most high-frequency economic data are positive, suggesting that the U.S. economic growth momentum needs to be re-evaluated. Based on our previous forecast, we have revised up our 2024 U.S. real GDP growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 2.0%. Among them, 1) the private consumption growth forecast is revised upward by 0.3 percentage points to 1.8%, of which consumption of goods and services is expected to increase by 1.8% and 1.7% respectively. 2) The private investment growth forecast is revised upward by 1 percentage point to 2.1%, of which residential and non-residential investment are expected to grow by 1.5% and 1.8% respectively. Changes in private inventory are expected to slightly boost investment. 3) The 2024 U.S. government spending growth forecast is revised upward by 0.3 percentage points to 2.2%. 2. Interest rate cut expectations still need to be revised. 1) In terms of employment, taking into account the strong new non-agricultural growth and the obstacles to the recovery of the labor force population, the average new non-agricultural growth forecast in the first quarter of 2024 has been revised upwards, and the end-of-year unemployment rate forecast has been slightly revised down to 4.0%, which is slightly lower than the Federal Reserve. The latest forecast is 4.1%. 2) In terms of inflation, both PCE and core PCE are expected to be around 2.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, which is basically consistent with the latest forecast of the Federal Reserve. Recent data point to rising supply chain pressures, adding uncertainty to the inflation outlook. 3) In terms of monetary policy, combined with the signals from the Federal Reserve\\'s recent speech, we maintain the judgment that \"the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates about three times in 2024, and the first rate cut may be in the second quarter, and the pace of interest rate cuts will be incoherent.\" In comparison, as of February 7, CME FedWatch still showed a 71% probability of at least five interest rate cuts throughout the year. 3. “Easy trading” requires more patience. 1) U.S. Treasuries: The upper limit of the forecast range for 10-year U.S. bond interest rates has been slightly widened, and the full-year fluctuation range is expected to be 3.5-4.2%. On the one hand, it is expected that the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate may remain above 4% for longer. On the other hand, looking at the whole year, the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate has room to fall, mainly because the Federal Reserve\\'s direction of starting to cut interest rates remains unchanged. In addition, the Federal Reserve is expected to discuss and give specific guidance on slowing down the balance sheet reduction in March, which will partially alleviate liquidity concerns and increase the probability of a fall in U.S. bond interest rates. 2) U.S. stocks: It is expected that the unilateral upward trend of U.S. stocks will become more difficult, but positive returns are still expected throughout the year. As of February 6 this year, the S&P 500 Index has risen by 3.9% (an annualized rate of up to 36%). However, if interest rate cut expectations continue to cool down and U.S. bond interest rates remain high, U.S. stock valuations and risk appetite may be suppressed to a certain extent, and there may be pressure for shock adjustments; after the Fed\\'s interest rate cut path is confirmed and the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate drops below 4%, there may be Better rising environment. 3) US dollar: The upper limit of the US dollar index forecast range is widened, and the full-year fluctuation range is expected to be 95-105. If there is no significant adjustment in the Fed\\'s interest rates, the direction of the U.S. dollar index will depend even more on the performance of non-U.S. economies. In Europe, the economic outlook of \"the United States is strong but Europe is weak\" has yet to see a clear turning point, putting continued pressure on the euro. In Japan, the Bank of Japan\\'s pivot decision is likely to depend on the Federal Reserve\\'s decision to cut interest rates. That is, the Fed\\'s delay in cutting interest rates may cause the Bank of Japan to consider delaying the pivot to avoid the risk of excessive increases in Japanese bond interest rates. The problem is that this may increase the volatility of the yen exchange rate. Despite the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, it is not advisable to underestimate the possibility of the Bank of Japan turning around and the yen appreciating in the future. Risk warning: The U.S. economy declined more than expected, U.S. inflation fell more than expected, U.S. financial risks rose more than expected, and non-U.S. economies and policies changed more than expected, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('1faba558-17d3-5821-ae0e-e52593c216b5'), 'sentimentScore': 0.883396103978157, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '3J311B58GP1RLVB1LP1MGS0SIRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:24:52 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '3J311B58GP1RLVB1LP1MGS0SIRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e8c51a30-7336-52b3-84aa-47d3cd57914d'), 'title': 'Comments on price data in January 2024: Food prices are the main drag', 'author': 'Zhong Zhengsheng, Chang Yixin', 'orgName': '平安证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000037', 'orgSName': '平安证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-15', 'encodeUrl': 'xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWrXhrRcZcqptjkrsQfwJVi0w=', 'researcher': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000180896', '11000387731'], 'count': 23, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWrXhrRcZcqptjkrsQfwJVi0w=', 'site': 'Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '平安证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621807541_1.pdf?1708008877000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621807541_1.pdf?1708008877000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on price data in January 2024: Food prices are the main drag', 'originalAuthor': '钟正生,常艺馨', 'originalContent': '事项：2024年1月CPI同比-0.8%，PPI同比为-2.5%。平安观点：CPI同比跌幅扩大。2024年1月CPI同比收缩0.8个百分点，跌幅较上月扩大0.5个百分点；核心CPI同比增速为0.4%，较上月回落0.2个百分点。除却春节错位、去年同期为疫情防控优化初期的基数影响，1月食品价格环比表现偏弱是主要拖累。2022年以来，第一产业实际GDP增速较快增长，体现出食品供应的增加，但总人口已连续两年回落，供过于求抑制价格表现。具体看：1）食品价格弱于季节性。1月CPI食品烟酒环比上涨0.4%，较2012年以来同期（阳历1月、农历腊月的年份）均值低2.6个百分点。食品分项中，影响力（以权重及波动率衡量）较大的猪肉、鲜果、鸡蛋价格均下跌，而鲜菜、水产品涨幅也不及历史同期。2）服务价格温和复苏，高基数拖累同比表现。1月服务CPI环比增长0.4%，基本符合农历季节性同期表现；但服务价格的同比增速较上月回落0.5个百分点，因去年同期为疫情防控优化初期，且受春节因素影响，基数偏高。各分项中，旅游和家庭服务表现偏强，合计影响CPI上涨约0.10个百分点；医疗服务、交通工具维修、邮递服务价格环比上行，受服务消费需求持续恢复的支撑。3）工业消费品价格趋稳，��CPI由拖累转为支撑。据国家统计局数据解读，1月工业消费品价格同比由上月下降0.4%转为上涨0.1%，其中能源价格由上月下降0.5%转为上涨0.1%。除能源外的主要分项中，家用器具价格维持环比涨势，交通工具环比跌幅收窄，通信工具、衣着、西药等分项价格环比有所回落。PPI同、环比跌幅略收窄。1月PPI同比跌幅收窄0.2个百分点至-2.5%，PPI环比跌幅收窄0.1个百分点至-0.2%。1）生产资料PPI环比跌幅持平于-0.2%，其中采掘和原材料工业跌幅收窄，仅加工工业跌幅略有扩大；2）生活资料PPI环比增速回落至-0.2%，除衣着外的主要分项均环比回落，尤其以耐用消费品价格表现偏弱，环比增速回落0.5个百分点至-0.4%。分行业看，PPI环比跌幅收窄支撑因素在于：一是，国际市场原油、有色金属等大宗商品价格偏强，存在一定推升。1月国内石油和天然气开采业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业、有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格环比跌幅收窄或涨幅扩大。我们测算，上述三个行业对PPI环比增速的拖累合计减弱0.15个百分点。二是，部分地区采暖需求增加，煤炭开采和洗选业、电力热力的生产和供应业、燃气生产和供应业价格环比上行，也有一定贡献。然而，内需定价的原材料行业、制造业中下游价格表现仍偏弱。一方面，建筑施工需求季节性走弱，黑色金属矿采选、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业价格涨势放缓，非金属矿物制品业跌幅扩大。另一方面，制造业中下游部分行业产能过剩，继续拖累价格。', 'content': \"Matters: In January 2024, the CPI was -0.8% year-on-year, and the PPI was -2.5% year-on-year. Ping An's perspective: CPI's year-on-year decline expanded. In January 2024, the CPI contracted by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and the decline expanded by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the core CPI growth rate was 0.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In addition to the base impact of the Spring Festival misalignment and the early stage of optimization of epidemic prevention and control in the same period last year, the weak month-on-month performance of food prices in January was the main drag. Since 2022, the real GDP growth rate of the primary industry has increased rapidly, reflecting the increase in food supply. However, the total population has fallen for two consecutive years, and oversupply has suppressed price performance. Specifically: 1) Food prices are weaker than seasonal. In January, the CPI for food, tobacco and alcohol increased by 0.4% month-on-month, which was 2.6 percentage points lower than the average value for the same period since 2012 (years in January of the Gregorian calendar and the twelfth lunar month of the lunar calendar). In the food sub-category, the prices of pork, fresh fruits, and eggs, which have greater influence (measured by weight and volatility), all fell, while the growth rates of fresh vegetables and aquatic products were not as high as the same period in history. 2) Service prices recovered moderately, and the high base dragged down year-on-year performance. In January, the service CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, basically in line with the seasonal performance of the same period in the Lunar Calendar; however, the year-on-year growth rate of service prices fell 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, because the same period last year was in the early stage of optimization of epidemic prevention and control, and affected by the Spring Festival factors, the base number was biased high. Among the various sub-categories, tourism and household services performed relatively strongly, which together affected the CPI increase by about 0.10 percentage points; prices of medical services, transportation maintenance, and postal services increased month-on-month, supported by the continued recovery of service consumption demand. 3) The price of industrial consumer goods has stabilized, which has turned from a drag to a support for CPI. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of industrial consumer goods in January turned from a decrease of 0.4% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year. Among them, the price of energy changed from a decrease of 0.5% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1%. Among the major sub-items except energy, the price of household appliances maintained a month-on-month increase, the month-on-month decline in transportation narrowed, and the prices of communication tools, clothing, western medicine and other sub-items fell month-on-month. The year-on-month and month-on-month declines in PPI narrowed slightly. In January, the year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed 0.2 percentage points to -2.5%, and the month-on-month decline in PPI narrowed 0.1 percentage points to -0.2%. 1) The month-on-month decline in PPI for means of production remained flat at -0.2%, with the mining and raw material industries narrowing their declines, and only the processing industry experiencing a slight expansion; 2) The month-on-month growth rate of PPI for means of living fell back to -0.2%, with major segments excluding clothing. The average price of items fell back month-on-month, especially the price of durable consumer goods was weak, with the month-on-month growth rate falling by 0.5 percentage points to -0.4%. Looking at different industries, the factors supporting the narrowing of the month-on-month decline in PPI are: First, the prices of bulk commodities such as crude oil and non-ferrous metals in the international market are relatively strong, which will push them up to a certain extent. In January, the domestic oil and natural gas mining industry, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices narrowed in month-on-month declines or expanded in price increases. We estimate that the drag on the month-on-month growth rate of PPI by the above three industries has been reduced by 0.15 percentage points in total. Second, the demand for heating in some areas has increased, and the price increases in the coal mining and washing industry, the electricity and heat production and supply industry, and the gas production and supply industry have also contributed to a certain extent. However, the price performance of the raw material industry and the middle and lower reaches of the manufacturing industry, which are priced by domestic demand, is still weak. On the one hand, demand for construction has weakened seasonally, price increases in the ferrous metal mining and processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries have slowed, and the decline in the non-metallic mineral products industry has expanded. On the other hand, overcapacity in some midstream and downstream manufacturing industries continues to drag down prices.\", 'authorid': UUID('149306d1-3d93-5b17-941a-f5aa3a00dc04'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6480177342891693, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'VQVCFMUTEMOH361DA7H1OHKICNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:24:55 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'VQVCFMUTEMOH361DA7H1OHKICNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5973cf2d-f9a0-5386-a544-8b141045e79f'), 'title': \"Slow things down: taking the pulse of China's economy\", 'author': 'Yang Weiqiu, Meng Zijun', 'orgName': '国元证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001043', 'orgSName': '国元证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-15', 'encodeUrl': 'xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWrUd6Npf3gOadu5K8ZMn340U=', 'researcher': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000176619', '11000337831'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWrUd6Npf3gOadu5K8ZMn340U=', 'site': 'Guoyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国元证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621807548_1.pdf?1708008794000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621807548_1.pdf?1708008794000.pdf', 'originalTitle': \"Slow things down: taking the pulse of China's economy\", 'originalAuthor': '杨为敩,孟子君', 'originalContent': '报告要点：对任何经济体来说，消费都是经济的稳定器。从消费率这一指标来看，即使在考虑了地产、出口、设备折旧等中国经济的独特特征之后，我国的最终消费率相较于主要发达国家还是偏低的。这就是为何我们在经济稍稍发力后，马上就会遇到供应过剩的被动局面。历史复盘来看，当投资率下降，且需求无法很快跟上时，经济的稳定性都会受到影响。消费是经济发展的结果而非原因。居民消费率的问题本质上是个总量问题：1）居民消费的症结是高储蓄率，高储蓄率的问题是社会保障问题；2）我们安全感的缺失并不源于财政在民生上不投入，而在人均维度上，我们财政的整个盘子偏小；3）消费是经济发展的结果，而非经济发展的原因，这导致我们需要重新考虑发展及结构的平衡问题。协调供需问题，政府模式转变是关键问题之一：1）此前政府领投的模式能最快程度保证总量的增长，但在原始资本积累完毕后，这个模式对经济增长空间的透支一目了然；2）政府的角色正在从投资型政策向服务型政府转型，这也许能解释，近年来我们在政府加杠杆上的克制心态。关键点之二是：国企这种特殊的安排在显著挤出居民的信用：1）我们金融体系给到企业的杠杆供应确实过高，中国企业的杠杆率要显著高于美欧日；2）金融本是一个加速器，这不是窗口指导能解决的问题，问题在于，在国资缺乏市场化退出机制的环境下，国企信仰进一步导致资源在供需分配上的失衡。资本形成的时代注定落幕，全要素生产率的提升会主导慢经济时代的到来，在经济的木桶效应发挥作用之时，经济结构成为了发展的必要条件。全要素生产率提升是个比资本形成更慢的变量：1）我们的工程师红利前景的确在，边际上，我们人口启蒙的进度非常快；2）但我们要接受折叠中国的事实，比如，在40岁及以上的中龄劳动者群体中，有98%没有接受过高等教育，这些群体还有20余年才会退出劳动力市场；3）人口结构的刚性是产业无法快速切换的制约，当前的经济转型速度可能已超过了人口的容忍能力，所以，短期的可交易性我们亦需要慎重斟酌。风险提示：国内宏观政策不及预期', 'content': \"Report highlights: For any economy, consumption is the stabilizer of the economy. Judging from the consumption rate indicator, even after taking into account the unique characteristics of the Chinese economy such as real estate, exports, and equipment depreciation, my country's final consumption rate is still low compared with major developed countries. This is why we will encounter a passive situation of oversupply immediately after the economy develops a little strength. Historical review shows that when the investment rate drops and demand cannot keep up quickly, the stability of the economy will be affected. Consumption is the result rather than the cause of economic development. The issue of residents’ consumption rate is essentially a total issue: 1) The crux of residents’ consumption is high savings rate, and the problem of high savings rate is social security issue; 2) Our lack of sense of security does not stem from the lack of fiscal investment in people’s livelihood. , and in the per capita dimension, our entire fiscal plate is relatively small; 3) Consumption is the result of economic development, not the cause of economic development, which leads us to need to reconsider the balance of development and structure. Coordinating supply and demand issues, the transformation of the government model is one of the key issues: 1) The previous government-led investment model can guarantee the growth of the total amount as quickly as possible, but after the original capital accumulation is completed, it is clear that this model overdrafts the economic growth space; 2 ) The role of the government is transforming from an investment-oriented policy to a service-oriented government. This may explain our restraint in increasing government leverage in recent years. The second key point is that this special arrangement of state-owned enterprises is significantly squeezing out residents’ credit: 1) The leverage supply provided to enterprises by our financial system is indeed too high, and the leverage ratio of Chinese enterprises is significantly higher than that of the United States, Europe and Japan; 2) Finance is an accelerator. This is not a problem that window guidance can solve. The problem is that in the absence of a market-based exit mechanism for state-owned assets, the beliefs of state-owned enterprises further lead to an imbalance in the distribution of supply and demand of resources. The era of capital formation is destined to end, and the improvement of total factor productivity will lead to the arrival of the slow economic era. When the economic barrel effect comes into play, economic structure becomes a necessary condition for development. The improvement of total factor productivity is a slower variable than capital formation: 1) The prospect of dividends for our engineers is indeed on the margin, and the progress of our population enlightenment is very fast; 2) But we have to accept the fact that China will collapse, for example, at the age of 40 98% of middle-aged workers and above have not received higher education, and these groups will not exit the labor market for more than 20 years; 3) The rigidity of the population structure is a constraint that prevents industries from switching quickly. The current speed of economic transformation It may have exceeded the tolerance of the population, so we also need to carefully consider the short-term tradability. Risk warning: Domestic macro policies fall short of expectations\", 'authorid': UUID('06a6231a-b667-541e-b1fd-3c96f32864dc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.3517100661993027, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '1OBGQ6HM2I9I1RHQPKS6BIRS87VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:24:57 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '1OBGQ6HM2I9I1RHQPKS6BIRS87VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e33e47d8-4db6-5a49-b6b3-aa630a4086a6'), 'title': 'Domestic Observation: Financial Data in January 2024: Financial Data Achieved a “Good Start”', 'author': 'Liu Sijia, Hu Shaohua', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-15', 'encodeUrl': 'xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWraqbIluobnKlfadwVkUEDQA=', 'researcher': '刘思佳,胡少华', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257478', '11000249934'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWraqbIluobnKlfadwVkUEDQA=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621786065_1.pdf?1708004832000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621786065_1.pdf?1708004832000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Domestic Observation: Financial Data in January 2024: Financial Data Achieved a “Good Start”', 'originalAuthor': '刘思佳,胡少华', 'originalContent': '投资要点事件：2月9日，央行发布2024年1月金融数据。1月M2同比8.7%，前值9.7%，M1同比5.9%，前值1.3%。新增人民币贷款4.92万亿元，同比多增162亿元。社会融资规模增量6.5万亿元，同比多增5061亿元。社融存量增速为9.5%，前值9.5%。核心观点：总的来看，1月金融数据实现“开门红”，尤其是体现在去年高基数的基础上，结构上亦有一定改善，总体利好风险偏好的回升。M2M1剪刀差的收窄，春节错位虽占主导，但增发国债亦有一定带动，后续需关注项目推进进度以及地产三大工程对M1拉动的持续性和力度。央行四季度货币政策报告提出“目前物价水平较低背后反映的是经济有效需求不足、总供求恢复不同步”，我们认为货币政策宽松窗口仍在，降息仍有可能。春节错位对货币增速影响较大。货币增速来看，M2增速回落，M1增速回升，两者剪刀差明显收窄。M2增速明显回落，基数抬升或是主因，一方面春节错位企业发放奖金的节奏不同，影响企业活期存款向居民活期存款流入的时间点，另一方面仍受理财赎回影响形成高基数。M1增速回升，除了春节错位以外，增发国债项目开始落地发力可能也有一定推动。总体上，春节期间货币增速波动较大，需拉长时间维度观察。居民贷款低基数影响延续，中长期贷款有所改善。1月居民贷款新增9801亿元，同比多增7229亿元，短期及长期贷款均有贡献。其中，短期贷款新增3528亿元，同比多增3187亿元，去年同期基数较低；中长期贷款新增6272亿元，同比多增4041亿元，低基数影响下明显高于去年同期，与历年同期均值的差距也逐步缩小，虽然30城新房销售环比仍弱于季节性，但部分城市二手房成交面积环比强于季节性，或是中长期贷款改善的主因。企业中长期贷款实现“开门红”。1月企业贷款新增3.86万亿元，同比少增8200亿元，结构上来看票据融资拖累较多。其中，企业中长期贷款新增3.31万亿元，去年天量基数（3.5万亿元）影响下，虽然同比少增1900亿元，但绝对量来看远超历年同期，特征上与去年12月一致，一方面体现企业开门红信贷需求较好，另一方面可能与增发国债、城中村改造等配套融资需求增加有关。短期融资方面：短期贷款新增1.46万亿元，同比少增500亿元；票据融资减少9733亿元，同比多减5605亿元，中长期贷款高增，票据冲量诉求回落。社融的支撑主要来自于企业债券、未贴现银行承兑汇票以及外币贷款。1月企业债券融资新增4835亿元，同比多增3197亿元，债券收益率整体下行，或推动企业债融资需求上升。非标融资中整体新增6008亿元，同比多增2523亿元，主要贡献来自于未贴现银行承兑汇票，同比多增2672亿元，表内票据融资规模减少或是主因。外币贷款新增989亿元，同比多增1120亿元，需观察企业出海投资是否对外币贷款有持续性的拉动。政府债券融资自2023年下半年以来持续支撑社融，但2024年开年以来地方政府债券发行节奏偏慢，1月新增2947亿元，同比少增1193亿元。风险提示：稳增长政策落地不及预期；房地产、地方政府债务风险处置不及预期。', 'content': 'Key investment events: On February 9, the central bank released financial data for January 2024. M2 in January was 8.7% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 9.7%, and M1 was 5.9% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 1.3%. New RMB loans increased by 4.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.2 billion yuan year-on-year. The scale of social financing increased by 6.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 506.1 billion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of social financing stock was 9.5%, compared with the previous value of 9.5%. Core point of view: Generally speaking, financial data in January achieved a \"good start\", especially based on last year\\'s high base, there has also been some improvement in structure, and overall it is good for the recovery of risk appetite. The narrowing of the M2M1 scissor gap is mainly driven by the Spring Festival dislocation, but it is also driven by the additional issuance of government bonds. In the future, we need to pay attention to the progress of the project and the persistence and intensity of the three major real estate projects\\' pull on M1. The central bank\\'s fourth quarter monetary policy report stated that \"the current low price level reflects insufficient effective demand in the economy and an out-of-sync recovery of aggregate supply and demand.\" We believe that the window for easing monetary policy is still there, and interest rate cuts are still possible. The Spring Festival dislocation has a greater impact on currency growth. In terms of currency growth, the growth rate of M2 fell back, the growth rate of M1 picked up, and the scissor difference between the two narrowed significantly. The growth rate of M2 has dropped significantly, and the rising base may be the main reason. On the one hand, the Spring Festival is different, and the rhythm of corporate bonuses is different, which affects the timing of the inflow of corporate demand deposits to residents\\' demand deposits. On the other hand, the high base is still affected by financial redemptions. The rebound in M1 growth may be driven by the fact that, in addition to the Spring Festival misalignment, the additional government bond issuance project has begun to take effect. Generally speaking, currency growth fluctuates greatly during the Spring Festival, and it needs to be observed over a longer period of time. The impact of the low base of resident loans continued, and medium and long-term loans improved. Residential loans increased by 980.1 billion yuan in January, an increase of 722.9 billion yuan year-on-year, with both short-term and long-term loans contributing. Among them, short-term loans increased by 352.8 billion yuan, an increase of 318.7 billion yuan year-on-year, and the base in the same period last year was low; medium and long-term loans increased by 627.2 billion yuan, an increase of 404.1 billion yuan year-on-year, which was significantly higher than the same period last year due to the low base. The gap between the average values \\u200b\\u200bfor the same period over the past years has also gradually narrowed. Although the month-on-month sales of new homes in 30 cities are still weaker than the seasonality, the month-on-month transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bsecond-hand houses in some cities is stronger than the seasonality, which may be the main reason for the improvement in medium and long-term loans. Medium and long-term corporate loans achieved a \"good start\". In January, corporate loans increased by 3.86 trillion yuan, a decrease of 820 billion yuan year-on-year. From a structural point of view, bill financing has a greater drag. Among them, medium and long-term corporate loans increased by 3.31 trillion yuan. Under the influence of last year’s huge base (3.5 trillion yuan), although the increase was 190 billion yuan less than the same period last year, the absolute volume far exceeded the same period in previous years. The characteristics are the same as those in December last year. On the one hand, it reflects the good credit demand of enterprises for a good start, and on the other hand, it may be related to the increase in demand for supporting financing such as additional issuance of government bonds and urban village renovation. In terms of short-term financing: short-term loans increased by 1.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 50 billion yuan year-on-year; bill financing decreased by 973.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 560.5 billion yuan year-on-year; medium and long-term loans increased sharply, and demand for bill momentum fell. The support for social financing mainly comes from corporate bonds, undiscounted bank acceptance bills and foreign currency loans. Corporate bond financing increased by 483.5 billion yuan in January, an increase of 319.7 billion yuan year-on-year. The overall decline in bond yields may increase the demand for corporate bond financing. The overall increase in non-standard financing was 600.8 billion yuan, an increase of 252.3 billion yuan year-on-year. The main contribution came from undiscounted bank acceptance bills, an increase of 267.2 billion yuan year-on-year. The decrease in the scale of on-balance sheet bill financing may be the main reason. Foreign currency loans increased by 98.9 billion yuan, an increase of 112 billion yuan year-on-year. It needs to be observed whether enterprises\\' overseas investment has a sustained boost in foreign currency loans. Government bond financing has continued to support social financing since the second half of 2023, but the pace of local government bond issuance has been slow since the beginning of 2024, with an increase of 294.7 billion yuan in January, a decrease of 119.3 billion yuan year-on-year. Risk warning: The implementation of policies to stabilize growth falls short of expectations; the handling of real estate and local government debt risks falls short of expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('2bb8c3e6-3f18-54fc-986c-cc6e63caf435'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9280190169811249, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'S48A2S7V0ACVMEPC29O65OLQD7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:00 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'S48A2S7V0ACVMEPC29O65OLQD7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b21dbf4c-c103-518d-a87f-ac49cd0d2a21'), 'title': 'Overseas Observation: U.S. CPI in January 2024: U.S. inflation overall higher than expected', 'author': 'Liu Sijia, Hu Shaohua', 'orgName': '东海证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000069', 'orgSName': '东海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-15', 'encodeUrl': 'xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWrWtEBh7wcxty3j/aVdnglGc=', 'researcher': '刘思佳,胡少华', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257478', '11000249934'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWrWtEBh7wcxty3j/aVdnglGc=', 'site': 'Donghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621799434_1.pdf?1708004725000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621799434_1.pdf?1708004725000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Overseas Observation: U.S. CPI in January 2024: U.S. inflation overall higher than expected', 'originalAuthor': '刘思佳,胡少华', 'originalContent': '投资要点事件：1月美国CPI同比上涨3.1%，前值3.4%，预期2.9%；环比上涨0.3%，前值0.3%，预期0.2%。核心CPI同比上涨3.9%，前值3.9%，预期3.7%；环比上涨0.4%，前值0.3%，预期0.3%。核心观点：美国通胀下行速度缓慢，1月美国CPI同比增速较上月小幅下滑，但高于市场预期。核心CPI同比增速与上月持平、环比增速重新走高，均高于市场预期。食品价格涨幅扩大，能源下跌。核心商品价格下跌0.3%，跌幅较前值扩大0.2pct，但难以对冲核心服务价格0.7%的环比增幅。由于通胀全面高于预期，联邦基金互换市场将计价的降息开始时间从6月推迟到7月。1月FOMC会议上，鲍威尔表示，美联储需要对通胀能够降至2%持有充分的信心，才能开始逐步放松限制性政策。若目前的通胀走势持续，美联储降息时点或仍遥远。美国通胀下行速度缓慢。1月美国CPI同比增速较上月小幅下滑，但高于市场预期。核心CPI同比增速与上月持平、环比增速重新走高，均高于市场预期。除去住房外的超级核心服务价格同比上涨3.6%，环比季调后上涨0.6%，环比增幅较上月增加0.2pct，反映出美国核心通胀的韧性依然很强。食品价格涨幅扩大，能源下跌。1月，美国食品价格延续上涨趋势，环比增长0.4%，涨幅较上月扩大0.2pct。能源价格下跌0.9%，跌幅较上月增加0.7pct。由于国际油价走低，汽油和燃油分别下跌3.3%和4.5%，跌幅较上月均有所扩大。核心通胀韧性较足，住房价格增速仍高。1月，核心CPI环比上涨0.4%，增速较上月扩大0.1pct。二手车的价格大幅下跌了3.4%，推动核心商品价格下跌0.3%，跌幅较前值扩大0.2pct，但难以对冲核心服务价格的大幅增长。1月，核心服务价格环比上升0.7%，单月环比增速达到2022年9月以来最高。其中，住房价格环比增长了0.6%，增幅连续4个月持续扩张。住房依然是对美国通胀上行贡献最大的分项。除住房外的核心服务价格环比增长0.6%，较前值走高，与1月非农报告中超预期的薪资增速一致，韧性依然较高。由于配备智能系统的汽车的维修费用走高，车险价格增长了1.4%，增长幅度连续多月较高。1月，个人护理服务价格增速也有所加快。市场推迟降息预期。由于通胀全面高于预期，联邦基金互换市场将计价的降息开始时间从6月推迟到7月。美股期货价格走低，美债收益率走高。若通胀走势持续，美联储降息时点或仍遥远。1月FOMC会议上，鲍威尔表示，美联储需要对通胀能够降至2%持有充分的信心，才能开始逐步放松限制性政策。未来几个月，原油供求因素和全球供应链动态的影响下，能源与核心商品的下行趋势未来可能无法持续。若薪资增速继续回升，美国核心服务价格增速可能仍将走高。如果通胀继续维持韧性，美联储降息开始的时间或仍遥远。风险提示：中国出口商品价格波动可能影响美国通胀；地缘政治风险。', 'content': 'Key investment events: U.S. CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year in January, compared with the previous value of 3.4%, and 2.9% expected; it rose 0.3% month-on-month, compared with the previous value of 0.3%, and 0.2% expected. Core CPI rose 3.9% year-on-year, the previous value was 3.9%, and the expectation was 3.7%; it rose 0.4% month-on-month, the previous value was 0.3%, and the expectation was 0.3%. Core view: U.S. inflation is declining slowly. The year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI in January fell slightly from the previous month, but was higher than market expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of core CPI was the same as last month, and the month-on-month growth rate increased again, both higher than market expectations. Food price increases widened and energy prices fell. Core commodity prices fell 0.3%, an increase of 0.2pct from the previous value, but it was difficult to offset the 0.7% month-on-month increase in core service prices. With inflation across the board higher than expected, the federal funds swap market is delaying the start of pricing rate cuts from June to July. At the January FOMC meeting, Powell said that the Fed needs to be fully confident that inflation can be reduced to 2% before it can begin to gradually relax restrictive policies. If the current inflation trend continues, the Fed may still be far away from cutting interest rates. U.S. inflation is falling slowly. The year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI in January declined slightly from the previous month, but was higher than market expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of core CPI was the same as last month, and the month-on-month growth rate increased again, both higher than market expectations. Prices of super core services excluding housing increased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month after seasonally adjustment. The month-on-month increase increased by 0.2pct from the previous month, reflecting that the resilience of U.S. core inflation remains strong. Food price increases widened and energy prices fell. In January, U.S. food prices continued their upward trend, increasing by 0.4% month-on-month, and the increase expanded by 0.2pct from the previous month. Energy prices fell 0.9%, an increase of 0.7pct from the previous month. Due to lower international oil prices, gasoline and fuel oil fell by 3.3% and 4.5% respectively, and the declines expanded compared with the previous month. Core inflation is relatively resilient, and housing price growth remains high. In January, core CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, and the growth rate expanded by 0.1pct from the previous month. The price of second-hand cars fell sharply by 3.4%, pushing the price of core commodities down by 0.3%, and the decline expanded by 0.2pct from the previous value. However, it was difficult to offset the substantial increase in core service prices. In January, core service prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month, and the single-month month-on-month growth rate reached the highest since September 2022. Among them, housing prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month, and the growth rate continued to expand for four consecutive months. Housing remains the sub-sector that contributes the most to rising inflation in the United States. Prices of core services excluding housing increased by 0.6% month-on-month, higher than the previous value, which was consistent with the higher-than-expected wage growth in the January non-agricultural report, and the resilience remains high. Due to higher maintenance costs for cars equipped with smart systems, auto insurance prices increased by 1.4%, the growth rate being higher for many consecutive months. In January, the price growth of personal care services also accelerated. The market postponed interest rate cut expectations. With inflation across the board higher than expected, the federal funds swap market is delaying the start of pricing rate cuts from June to July. U.S. stock futures were lower and U.S. bond yields were higher. If inflation continues, the Fed may still be far away from cutting interest rates. At the January FOMC meeting, Powell said that the Fed needs to be fully confident that inflation can be reduced to 2% before it can begin to gradually relax restrictive policies. In the coming months, under the influence of crude oil supply and demand factors and global supply chain dynamics, the downward trend in energy and core commodities may not be sustainable in the future. If wage growth continues to pick up, U.S. core service price growth may still rise. If inflation continues to remain resilient, the Fed may still be far away from cutting interest rates. Risk warning: Price fluctuations in China’s export commodities may affect U.S. inflation; geopolitical risks.', 'authorid': UUID('2bb8c3e6-3f18-54fc-986c-cc6e63caf435'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7928904816508293, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'S420QSJ3I3IDKLGMT469Q5HA2VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:02 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'S420QSJ3I3IDKLGMT469Q5HA2VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('cf5b1fa5-e206-5523-a0d5-7c75934293ab'), 'title': 'U.S. CPI data for January: Service inflation accelerated month-on-month, and the market lowered interest rate cut expectations', 'author': 'Zhang Jun , Yu Jintong', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-15', 'encodeUrl': 'xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWrcJOUimfZhvm9A+eX0/ItE4=', 'researcher': '章俊,于金潼', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000440456'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=xwmWqDhb6Iwtplmym1MWrcJOUimfZhvm9A+eX0/ItE4=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621779888_1.pdf?1707988704000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402151621779888_1.pdf?1707988704000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. CPI data for January: Service inflation accelerated month-on-month, and the market lowered interest rate cut expectations', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,于金潼', 'originalContent': '核心要点：CPI和核心CPI增速高于预期，居住成本和服务环比加速：1月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增速从12月的3.4%降至3.1%，高于2.9%的市场预期；剔除能源和食品的核心CPI同比3.9%，与12月相同，同样高于3.7%的市场预期。季调环比方面，CPI增速为0.3%，核心CPI增速略升至0.4%。CPI在2023年12月和2024年1月均强于市场预期，且主要因素均为居住成本环比意外强劲，此外非家用食品和运输也有一定贡献。居住成本的粘性弱化了通胀降低的幅度，但并不改变其2024上半年下行的趋势，75BP或更多的降息仍是基准情形；虽然如此，部分价格分项的脉冲和地缘政治问题等诸多不确定性将使通胀额下行充满曲折，美联储也需要警惕四季度通胀小幅回升并偏离2%目标的风险。在劳动和CPI数据都强于预期的情况下，市场纠正了过度激进的降息预期，因此也不必对美联储2024年的降息幅度过分悲观。通胀数据反映的6个要点：（1）1月CPI增速超预期的核心原因依然是居住成本环比增长偏强，能源服务、教育和通信、娱乐以及非家用食品价格环比增速的加快也弱化了通胀同比的降幅；整体上，通胀仍处于稳步下降的通道，但放缓的幅度可能弱于2023年四季度形成的市场预期。（2）居住成本0.6%的环比增长在2023年9月也曾出现过，本次大概率仍为脉冲效应；由于技术性的统计滞后，居住成本正常的非季调环比应在0.3%-0.4%左右。从房地美等房价指数的环比增幅来看，考虑统计滞后的情况下，通胀中居住成本的环比增幅可能在2024上半年面临一定压力，但下半年预计缓和，整体无需过度担忧。（3）核心CPI方面，预计仍将在前三季度延续缓和趋势并向3%靠拢，不过如果后续居住成本环比持续偏高则需要警惕。（4）1月短期消费者通胀预期仍在回落，5年预期保持稳定，这仍旧利于美联储防止价格增速出现明显反弹；在能源价格不超预期的情况下，名义CPI在2024年三季度仍可能接近2%，但四季度有回升风险。（5）对2023年CPI的季节性调整并未像2022年一样出现明显上修，这表明去通胀进程整体较为顺利。（6）综合以上信息，在通胀大概率于2024年整体延续回落的情况下，美联储年内依旧有较高可能进行3至4次的降息，我们认为首次降息时点仍有望在二季度末出现，市场目前对降息预期的调整已经较为合理。我们目前对2月CPI的预测增速为2.8%，核心增速在3.7%左右。市场推后预期的首次降息时和全年降息幅度，目前预期已经趋于合理：近两个月的劳动和价格数据均超出市场预期，使市场进一步降低了2024年的降息预期。CME数据显示联邦基金利率期货交易者将首次降息时点推迟至5月，全年降息幅度降低至4次。10年期美债大幅上行13.7BP至4.315%，美元指数升至104.8646，三大股指全线收跌。我们认为目前市场对全年降息的时点和幅度正趋于合理，尽管偏强的经济表明去通胀不会一帆风顺，但从实际利率角度考虑美联储全年进行3至4次降息依然有必要，4.5%左右的联邦基金利率依旧会令实际利率保持2000年以来的偏高水平以防止价格过热。不过，如果通胀数据在未来数月连续超预期，美联储会进行更鹰派的引导。', 'content': \"Core points: CPI and core CPI growth rates are higher than expected, and housing costs and services are accelerating month-on-month: The year-on-year growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January fell to 3.1% from 3.4% in December, higher than the market expectation of 2.9% ; The core CPI excluding energy and food was 3.9% year-on-year, the same as in December, and also higher than the market expectation of 3.7%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI growth rate rose slightly to 0.4%. CPI was stronger than market expectations in both December 2023 and January 2024, and the main factors were the unexpectedly strong month-on-month cost of living. In addition, non-household food and transportation also contributed to a certain extent. The stickiness of housing costs has weakened the extent of inflation reduction, but it does not change its downward trend in the first half of 2024. An interest rate cut of 75BP or more is still the baseline scenario; nevertheless, there are many uncertainties such as the pulse of some price components and geopolitical issues. Certainty will make the downward trend in inflation full of twists and turns, and the Fed also needs to be wary of the risk that inflation will pick up slightly in the fourth quarter and deviate from the 2% target. With both labor and CPI data stronger than expected, the market corrected its overly aggressive interest rate cut expectations, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Fed's interest rate cut in 2024. Six key points reflected in the inflation data: (1) The core reason for the higher-than-expected CPI growth rate in January is still the stronger month-on-month growth in housing costs, and the acceleration in the month-on-month growth rate of energy services, education and communications, entertainment, and non-household food prices has also weakened. Overall, inflation is still on a steady downward path, but the extent of the slowdown may be weaker than market expectations formed in the fourth quarter of 2023. (2) The 0.6% month-on-month growth in housing costs has also occurred in September 2023, and this time there is a high probability that it is still a pulse effect; due to technical statistical lags, the normal non-seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth in housing costs should be 0.3%-0.4% about. Judging from the month-on-month growth rate of housing price indexes such as Freddie Mac, taking into account statistical lag, the month-on-month growth rate of housing costs in inflation may face certain pressure in the first half of 2024, but it is expected to ease in the second half of the year, and there is no need to worry too much overall. (3) In terms of core CPI, it is expected that the moderation trend will continue in the first three quarters and move closer to 3%. However, if subsequent living costs continue to be higher than the previous quarter, you need to be vigilant. (4) Short-term consumer inflation expectations are still falling in January, and the five-year expectations remain stable, which will still help the Federal Reserve prevent a significant rebound in price growth; with energy prices not exceeding expectations, nominal CPI will still remain stable in the third quarter of 2024. It may be close to 2%, but there is a risk of recovery in the fourth quarter. (5) The seasonal adjustment of CPI in 2023 has not been significantly upwardly revised like in 2022, which shows that the de-inflation process is generally smooth. (6) Based on the above information, with the high probability of inflation continuing to fall in 2024, the Federal Reserve is still very likely to cut interest rates 3 to 4 times this year. We believe that the first interest rate cut is still expected to occur at the end of the second quarter. The market's current adjustment to interest rate cut expectations has been relatively reasonable. Our current forecast for CPI growth in February is 2.8%, and the core growth rate is around 3.7%. The market has pushed back the expected first rate cut and the full-year rate cut, and current expectations have become reasonable: labor and price data in the past two months have exceeded market expectations, causing the market to further reduce interest rate cut expectations in 2024. CME data shows that traders in federal funds rate futures are delaying the first rate cut to May, reducing the number of rate cuts to four for the year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose sharply by 13.7BP to 4.315%, the U.S. dollar index rose to 104.8646, and the three major stock indexes closed down across the board. We believe that the current market is becoming more reasonable about the timing and extent of interest rate cuts throughout the year. Although the strong economy indicates that de-inflation will not be smooth sailing, from the perspective of real interest rates, it is still necessary for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates 3 to 4 times throughout the year. 4.5 The federal funds rate of around % will still keep real interest rates at a high level since 2000 to prevent prices from overheating. However, if inflation data continues to exceed expectations in the coming months, the Fed will provide more hawkish guidance.\", 'authorid': UUID('aade9e7c-af7e-5d53-a8f5-2d3af8826809'), 'sentimentScore': -0.6497976332902908, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'S2OQ43CCM1N861SVT3HUBFNH4FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:05 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'S2OQ43CCM1N861SVT3HUBFNH4FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('e084b2e4-00f7-5286-849b-cee5634dd98f'), 'title': 'Macro Commentary: How does \"unconventional\" inflation affect the interest rate cut \"script\"?', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-14', 'encodeUrl': '/rHNibsh9QmXH9OKXOqpIvw2TEWXJiZMRlu7D2YS+M0=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/rHNibsh9QmXH9OKXOqpIvw2TEWXJiZMRlu7D2YS+M0=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402141621662948_1.pdf?1707932736000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402141621662948_1.pdf?1707932736000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Commentary: How does \"unconventional\" inflation affect the interest rate cut \"script\"?', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': \"“通胀已死？”，2月1日在接受媒体采访时美联储主席鲍威尔对这一说法暧昧的态度（既没否认、也没正面肯定）给了市场较大的勇气，只是1月通胀数据的这盆“冷水”让人有点措手不及——美股三大股指在CPI公布日的跌幅，创2022年9月以来最大。降息预期也开始大幅降温，首次降息的时点被进一步推迟至6月，而全年降息次数则缩水至4次。可能更加重要的是1月的通胀有没有达到“好”的标准。鲍威尔表示在开始降息前需要看到更多“好”的数据——“这些数据并不需要比之前的更好或同样好，只需“好”就行”（It doesn't need to be better than what we've seen,or even as good.It justneeds to be good）。我们认为目前为止1月的通胀离“好”可能还存在偏差，我们之前反复强调的核心通胀环比增速，突破0.3%的阈值、达到0.4%，这并不是一个好的信号。当然我们并不认为单次数据能够扭转美国disinflation的趋势和预期，美联储更看重的PCE会在月底公布，由于统计方法和内容的不同，值得重点关注。那么到底1月美国通胀表现如何？不得不承认的是通胀突破3%比预期的要困难得多。CPI同比在1月上涨3.1%，核心CPI维持去年12月3.9%的同比增速。这种停滞在很大程度上反应出的是核心服务的顽固，尤其是除住房外的核心服务通胀的粘性依然超出美联储的预期，首先，从整体上来看美联储主要关注的指标：3个月和6个月的通胀反弹，并未强化降息预期。鲍威尔曾表示“过去3个月和6个月的通胀下降令人鼓舞”，由此可见这一指标受到其青睐。从2023年来看，核心通胀环比6个月移动平均维持在0.2%-0.3%良性放缓的趋势上，不过从最新的1月数据来看，3个月及6个月年化通胀的小幅反弹，意味着核心通胀的放缓还需要更多时间才能交出让美联储满意的“成绩单”。超级核心通胀的加速，意味着美国需要在工资通胀上“做更多功课”。剔除掉住房后，左右此项的核心无疑是薪资增速的情况。自10月份以来，这一趋势似乎一直在回升，而这主要则是取决于就业失衡的情况。虽然供需失衡的矛盾在缓解，但仍处于历史较高水平。通胀粘性风险是否有所缓解还需进一步观察劳动力市场的供需矛盾。其次，从分项的维度来看，2024年1月，核心商品价格压力持续缓解，但主要推手核心服务的飙升动能不减。具体来看：从供给侧，核心商品继续下行空间受限。供给侧的扰动对美国通胀的影响主要体现在核心商品项，车辆作为核心商品的重要组成部分（占比CPI近8%），其价格进一步下探可能受阻，因为新车及二手车价格已经回落至疫前水平：2024年1月，二手车同比下降3%，新车同比增加0.7%，较前值1%继续放缓。从需求侧，住房租金仍是通胀的最大风险点。房租分项在1月环比增速达0.6%，相较于12月继续上涨0.2%。增速为近一年以来最高水平，对整体CPI的拉动达到一半以上。其中业主等价租金和主要居所租金环比分别上升0.6%、0.4%。住房类通胀的居高不下使得通胀目标的实现面临重重阻碍。往后看地产回暖或将再次带动房屋价格上涨，给未来的房租通胀“蒙阴”，谨防后续对住房类CPI的传导。非农+通胀=降息后移。美联储关心的“左右手”都给延后“首降”时间提供了有效的支撑。目前来看，受制于核心服务，通胀回落的“最后一公里”的路是崎岖不平的，而“打配合”��劳动力市场进一步放缓也还需要时间。在物价涨势以“令人信服”的方式放缓之前，美联储年内多次降息的疑虑需要进一步考察，而对于市场认为5月降息的“赌注”将被逐渐修正，过于乐观的预期可能面临剧烈回调的风险。风险提示：全球通胀超预期上行，美国经济提前进入显著衰退，巴以冲突局势失控，美国银行危机再起金融风险暴露。\", 'content': '\"Inflation is dead?\" In an interview with the media on February 1, Fed Chairman Powell\\'s ambiguous attitude towards this statement (neither denying nor affirming it) gave the market greater courage. However, the inflation data in January This pot of \"cold water\" caught people a bit off guard - the three major U.S. stock indexes fell the most since September 2022 on the day of the CPI announcement. Expectations for interest rate cuts have also begun to cool significantly, with the first interest rate cut being further postponed to June, while the number of interest rate cuts throughout the year has shrunk to four. Perhaps more important is whether inflation in January reached the \"good\" standard. Powell said he needs to see more \"good\" data before starting to cut interest rates - \"It doesn\\'t need to be better than what we\\'ve seen,or even as good.It justneeds to be good). We believe that inflation in January so far may still deviate from \"good\". The core inflation month-on-month growth rate that we have repeatedly emphasized before broke through the 0.3% threshold and reached 0.4%. This is not a good signal. Of course, we do not believe that a single data can reverse the trend and expectations of disinflation in the United States. The PCE, which the Fed is more concerned about, will be released at the end of the month. Due to the difference in statistical methods and content, it deserves special attention. So how did U.S. inflation perform in January? We have to admit that it is much more difficult for inflation to break through 3% than expected. CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year in January, and core CPI maintained the year-on-year growth rate of 3.9% in December last year. This stagnation largely reflects the stubbornness of core services, especially the stickiness of inflation in core services other than housing, which is still beyond the Fed’s expectations. First, let’s look at the Fed’s main indicators of concern as a whole: 3-month and The six-month rebound in inflation has not reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts. Powell once said that \"the decline in inflation over the past three and six months is encouraging,\" which shows that this indicator is favored by him. From the perspective of 2023, the six-month moving average of core inflation will maintain a healthy slowdown trend of 0.2%-0.3%. However, judging from the latest January data, the three-month and six-month annualized inflation rebounded slightly. , which means that it will take more time for the slowdown in core inflation to deliver a \"report card\" that satisfies the Fed. The acceleration of super core inflation means that the United States needs to \"do more homework\" on wage inflation. After excluding housing, the core factor affecting this item is undoubtedly the salary growth rate. The trend appears to have been picking up since October, depending largely on employment imbalances. Although the imbalance between supply and demand is easing, it is still at a historically high level. Whether the risk of sticky inflation has been alleviated requires further observation of the contradiction between supply and demand in the labor market. Secondly, from a sub-item perspective, in January 2024, the price pressure on core commodities continued to ease, but the soaring momentum of core services, which was the main driver, remained unabated. Specifically: From the supply side, the continued downward space for core commodities is limited. The impact of supply-side disturbances on U.S. inflation is mainly reflected in core commodities. As an important component of core commodities (accounting for nearly 8% of CPI), vehicles may be hindered from further price declines because the prices of new and used cars have dropped to Pre-epidemic level: In January 2024, used cars fell by 3% year-on-year, while new cars increased by 0.7% year-on-year, continuing to slow down from the previous value of 1%. From the demand side, housing rent remains the biggest risk point for inflation. The rent component increased by 0.6% month-on-month in January, continuing to increase by 0.2% compared to December. The growth rate is the highest level in the past year, driving more than half of the overall CPI. Among them, the owner\\'s equivalent rent and the rent of the main residence increased by 0.6% and 0.4% respectively from the previous month. Remaining high housing inflation has made the achievement of inflation targets faced with many obstacles. Looking forward, the rebound in real estate may once again drive up housing prices, clouding future rent inflation. Beware of subsequent transmission to housing CPI. Non-farm payrolls + inflation = interest rate cuts later. The \"left and right hands\" that the Fed cares about have provided effective support for delaying the \"first cut\" time. At present, due to the constraints of core services, the \"last mile\" of inflation falling is bumpy, and it will take time for the \"coordinated\" labor market to further slow down. Before the price rise slows down in a \"convincing\" way, the Fed\\'s doubts about multiple interest rate cuts during the year need to be further examined, and the market believes that the \"bet\" of interest rate cuts in May will be gradually revised, and overly optimistic expectations may face violent consequences. Risk of pullback. Risk warning: Global inflation is rising more than expected, the U.S. economy has entered a significant recession ahead of schedule, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is out of control, and the U.S. banking crisis has revived financial risk exposure.', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9422401078045368, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'P11DNMICU9AEPCJRBGQ4IS78I3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:09 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'P11DNMICU9AEPCJRBGQ4IS78I3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('326fc699-13df-5acd-aeaf-f33837069d31'), 'title': 'Interpretation of financial data in January 2024: Endogenous demand strengthens and social financing structure improves', 'author': 'Zhang Jun, Xu Dongshi, Zhan Lu', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-14', 'encodeUrl': '/rHNibsh9QmXH9OKXOqpIphXt4HvW7dll+rv2zUyi0o=', 'researcher': '章俊,许冬石,詹璐', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000185520', '11000208436'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=/rHNibsh9QmXH9OKXOqpIphXt4HvW7dll+rv2zUyi0o=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402141621615979_1.pdf?1707909975000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402141621615979_1.pdf?1707909975000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of financial data in January 2024: Endogenous demand strengthens and social financing structure improves', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,许冬石,詹璐', 'originalContent': '核心观点：1月社会融资6.5万亿元（wind一致预期5.8万亿），超出市场预期，同比+5061亿元。社融增速为9.5%，与2023年12月持平。新增社融创历史同期最高值，结构改善。社融结构改善表现在两个方面：1、不再由政府融资支撑社融增长，私人部门融资需求走强，社融同比多增来自企业债券和未贴现银行承兑汇票。2、直接融资改善明显，企业债券融资走强。化债背景下企业债券融资可能主要来自产业债，而非城投债。根据公开披露数据，1月wind口径的城投债净融资额约66亿元，产业债净融资额约2353亿元。信贷供需发生变化，供给偏紧，需求走强。主要表现在3个方面：1、票据利率走高、票据冲量减少，1月票据融资同比少增5606亿元；2、表外融资明显改善，未贴现银行承兑汇票同比多增2672亿元，可能是由于表内信贷供给偏紧，企业融资无法完全通过表内融资实现；3、对实体经济发放的人民币贷款同比少增主要是由于高基数的原因，仍大幅高于历史同期均值，居民中长贷同比多增可能主要由于经营贷多增，企业中长贷表现偏强。在央行多次强调平滑年末年初波动，信贷均衡投放的背景下，银行冲刺“开门红”的意愿弱于去年，供给偏紧，但私人部门内生性需求走强。M1快速回升，即使剔除掉春节错位影响，依然表现偏强。1月M0增速5.9%，比去年12月快速下滑2.4个百分点，但M1增速快速上行4.6pct至5.9%，说明M1快速上行来自企业活期存款增速上行。企业活期存款增速上行主要有三个原因：1、春节错位，2023年低基数。2023年春节在1月，企业发放工资奖金，企业活期存款向居民存款转移带来低基数。2、可能也和化债资金回流企业有关；3、可能由于企业预期边际改善，企业资金活化程度提升。1月的BCI企业销售前瞻指数和利润前瞻指数均比去年12月上行也可以侧面验证企业预期改善。时隔21个月，社融增速再次超过M2增速，但持续性仍有待观察。1月社融增速高于M2增速，主要由于M2增速的快速回落，但M2增速的回落主要是由于存款高基数的影响，2月份基数的影响将明显消退，M2增速可能回升。1月社融数据是对市场预期的再次修正2023年中央金融工作会议提出“盘活被低效占用的金融资源，提高资金使用效率”，此后央行也多次强调“衡量信贷支持实体经济的成效，不宜过于关注新增贷款情况”“不仅增量信贷能支持实体经济，盘活低效存量贷款也有助于经济增长”。在此背景下，市场对于2024年的信贷增速预期较低。但1月社融数据表明私人部门的内生融资需求超出市场预期，2024年信贷依然可能保持稳定增长，全年新增信贷预计在23.6万亿，增长约10%。2023年4季度央行货币政策执行报告，首次提出“合理把握债券与信贷两个最大融资市场的关系”，扩大直接融资，社融结构实现再平衡。同时，10年期国债收益率2月再创新低，企业债券融资利率下行，企业债券融资成本的下行有助于推动企业更多采用债券融资方式，直接融资增速预计将在2024年上行。社融结构发生改变，但依然可能实现9.9%的较快增长。风险提示1.政策理解不到位的风险2.央行货币政策超预期的风险3.政府债券发行不及预期的风险4.经济超预期下行的风险', 'content': 'Core point of view: Social financing in January was 6.5 trillion yuan (wind consensus expected 5.8 trillion yuan), exceeding market expectations, +506.1 billion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of social financing was 9.5%, the same as in December 2023. The newly added social capital achieved the highest value in the same period in history, and the structure improved. The improvement of the social financing structure is reflected in two aspects: 1. The growth of social financing is no longer supported by government financing. The financing demand of the private sector has strengthened. The year-on-year increase in social financing comes from corporate bonds and undiscounted bank acceptance bills. 2. Direct financing has improved significantly, and corporate bond financing has strengthened. In the context of debt transformation, corporate bond financing may mainly come from industrial bonds rather than urban investment bonds. According to publicly disclosed data, the net financing amount of wind-caliber urban investment bonds in January was approximately 6.6 billion yuan, and the net financing amount of industrial bonds was approximately 235.3 billion yuan. Credit supply and demand have changed, supply is tight and demand is strengthening. Mainly manifested in three aspects: 1. Bill interest rates increased, bill momentum decreased, and bill financing in January increased by 560.6 billion yuan year-on-year; 2. Off-balance sheet financing improved significantly, and undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 267.2 billion yuan year-on-year. This may be due to Due to the tight supply of on-balance sheet credit, corporate financing cannot be fully realized through on-balance sheet financing; 3. The year-on-year decrease in RMB loans issued to the real economy is mainly due to the high base, which is still significantly higher than the historical average for the same period. Medium and long-term loans to residents The year-on-year increase may be mainly due to the increase in operating loans and the strong performance of medium and long-term corporate loans. Against the background that the central bank has repeatedly emphasized smoothing fluctuations at the end of the year and the beginning of the year and providing balanced credit, banks are less willing to make a \"good start\" than last year, and supply is tight, but endogenous demand from the private sector is strengthening. M1 rebounded rapidly. Even if the impact of the Spring Festival dislocation is eliminated, the performance is still relatively strong. M0 growth rate in January was 5.9%, down 2.4 percentage points from December last year, but M1 growth rate increased rapidly by 4.6pct to 5.9%, indicating that the rapid rise in M1 came from the increase in the growth rate of corporate demand deposits. There are three main reasons for the upward growth of corporate demand deposits: 1. The Spring Festival is misplaced and the base is low in 2023. The Spring Festival of 2023 is in January. Companies pay salary bonuses, and the transfer of corporate demand deposits to resident deposits brings a low base. 2. It may also be related to the return of debt funds to enterprises; 3. It may be due to the marginal improvement in corporate expectations that the degree of activation of corporate funds has increased. The BCI corporate sales outlook index and profit outlook index in January were both higher than in December last year, which can also verify the improvement of corporate expectations. After 21 months, the growth rate of social financing has once again exceeded the growth rate of M2, but the sustainability remains to be seen. The growth rate of social financing in January was higher than the growth rate of M2, mainly due to the rapid decline of M2 growth rate. However, the decline of M2 growth rate was mainly due to the impact of the high base of deposits. The impact of the base number will obviously subside in February, and the growth rate of M2 may rebound. . January\\'s social financing data is another revision of market expectations. The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference proposed to \"revitalize inefficiently occupied financial resources and improve the efficiency of fund use.\" Since then, the central bank has also repeatedly emphasized \"measuring the effectiveness of credit in supporting the real economy. It is not advisable to pay too much attention to the situation of new loans. \"Not only can incremental credit support the real economy, but revitalizing inefficient existing loans can also help economic growth.\" Against this background, the market’s expectations for credit growth in 2024 are low. However, social financing data in January showed that the endogenous financing demand of the private sector exceeded market expectations, and credit is still likely to maintain steady growth in 2024. New credit for the year is expected to be 23.6 trillion, an increase of about 10%. The central bank\\'s monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2023 proposed for the first time \"reasonably grasp the relationship between the two largest financing markets, bonds and credit\", expand direct financing, and rebalance the social financing structure. At the same time, the 10-year treasury bond yield reached a new low in February, corporate bond financing rates fell, and the decline in corporate bond financing costs will help promote companies to use more bond financing methods. The growth rate of direct financing is expected to rise in 2024. The social financing structure has changed, but it is still possible to achieve a relatively rapid growth of 9.9%. Risk warning 1. The risk of insufficient understanding of the policy 2. The risk of the central bank’s monetary policy exceeding expectations 3. The risk of government bond issuance falling short of expectations 4. The risk of the economy declining more than expected', 'authorid': UUID('9691e2af-b977-525d-9856-67ec9bb87ebf'), 'sentimentScore': 0.7311554197221994, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '4U8H61DUBNJ74JCPFP5QOIDTTFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:11 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '4U8H61DUBNJ74JCPFP5QOIDTTFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('432c30c0-5fb0-5997-bcce-a53f1ce416e6'), 'title': 'U.S. Labor Market Introduction and Outlook', 'author': 'Zhu Qibing, Zhou Yaqi', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-14', 'encodeUrl': '9C4jPD5pZDHJ/nPSkRPrnzOBnp00Iv9xkb7C0fZigJI=', 'researcher': '朱启兵,周亚齐', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000224223', '11000429332'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=9C4jPD5pZDHJ/nPSkRPrnzOBnp00Iv9xkb7C0fZigJI=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402131621466845_1.pdf?1707919964000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402131621466845_1.pdf?1707919964000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'U.S. Labor Market Introduction and Outlook', 'originalAuthor': '朱启兵,周亚齐', 'originalContent': '我们预计美国失业率可能会在2024年1季度左右达到或小幅突破4%，但之后有望于4%左右企稳。薪资增速有望持续回落并带动核心通胀降温。纽约联储提出了看待美国劳动力市场的8个维度：失业、就业、工时、劳动力需求、劳动力参与、工作丧失、工资以及错配。目前美国劳动力市场韧性仍存，劳动力供给尚未回到疫情前趋势，劳动力需求则仍然旺盛；劳动力市场的进一步降温或将主要来自于需求端的放缓。我们对“美国非农就业人数”、“失业人数与失业率”、“职位空缺人数和空缺率”、“挑战者企业裁员数据”、“ADP”以及“非农企业员工平均时薪”进行更为详细的介绍。就业市场结构的历史变动：2011年以来，美国建筑业就业占比持续缓慢走高，目前已经升至5.16%。金融危机之后，美国制造业就业占比虽结束快速下滑势头，但未能止跌，目前已经下降至8.23%。历史上，美国采矿和伐木业就业人数占比一直较小且整体呈现持续回落的特征，目前占比已经不足0.50%。自1967年以来，美国服务业在劳动力市场的比重整体呈现持续走高的态势，2012年之后则持续稳定在略高于70%的水平。二战后，政府部门就业占比整体呈现“倒V”型走势，目前占比降至不足15%“衰退”前后失业率的历史变动规律：历史均值显示，失业率在衰退开始前整体平稳，但在衰退开始后的爬升过程中呈现“先快后慢”的节���，而触顶之后的回落则是缓慢的；失业率峰值较衰退开始前平均高约2.37%。不同衰退时期失业率的变化差异较大；2008年和2020年失业率上行异常迅猛。总统选举前后失业率的历史变动规律：历史均值显示，总统选举月后失业率呈现先小幅上升之后再回落的特征，失业率峰值较选举月前平均高约0.08%。总统更替年中，选举月后失业率的上行更为显著且持久，失业率峰值较选举月前平均高约0.39%；总统连任年中，失业率在选举月前后都呈现持续震荡回落的特征。我们的观点：美国劳动市场供需仍有可能保持“紧平衡”，但总统大选带来不确定性。基于经济周期的模型显示失业率在未来数月可能会小幅升破4.00%。高频数据显示美国劳动力市场仍然强劲。“萨姆法则”以及“3个月vs12个月金叉”尚未显示失业率存在趋势性上行的风险。市场一致预期认为失业率将在2024年缓慢上行，并小幅升破4.00%。我们预计美国失业率可能会在2024年1季度左右达到或小幅突破4.00%，但之后有望于4.00%左右企稳；非农新增岗位也会先回落后企稳；薪资增速有望持续回落并带动核心通胀降温。风险提示：美国经济超预期快速下滑或将伴随失业率快速走高。美国经济超预期强劲或将伴随失业率低于预期。经济周期模型预测错误。', 'content': 'We predict that the U.S. unemployment rate may reach or slightly exceed 4% around the first quarter of 2024, but is expected to stabilize around 4% thereafter. Wage growth is expected to continue to fall and lead to a cooling of core inflation. The New York Fed proposed eight dimensions to look at the U.S. labor market: unemployment, employment, working hours, labor demand, labor force participation, job losses, wages, and mismatch. At present, the resilience of the U.S. labor market still exists, labor supply has not returned to the pre-epidemic trend, and labor demand is still strong; further cooling of the labor market may mainly come from the slowdown on the demand side. We update \"U.S. non-farm payrolls\", \"Unemployment numbers and unemployment rate\", \"Number of job vacancies and vacancy rate\", \"Challenger corporate layoff data\", \"ADP\" and \"Average hourly earnings of non-farm corporate employees\" for a detailed introduction. Historical changes in the job market structure: Since 2011, the proportion of employment in the U.S. construction industry has continued to rise slowly, and has now risen to 5.16%. After the financial crisis, although the rapid decline in the U.S. manufacturing employment share ended, it failed to stop the decline and has now dropped to 8.23%. Historically, the employment share of the mining and logging industry in the United States has always been small and has continued to decline overall. It currently accounts for less than 0.50%. Since 1967, the proportion of the U.S. service industry in the labor market has continued to rise. After 2012, it has continued to stabilize at a level of just over 70%. After World War II, the overall employment share of the government sector showed an \"inverted V\"-shaped trend, and the current share has dropped to less than 15%. Historical changes in the unemployment rate before and after the \"recession\": Historical averages show that the unemployment rate was generally stable before the recession began, but The climb after the start of the recession showed a \"fast first and then slow\" rhythm, while the fall after the peak was slow; the peak unemployment rate was about 2.37% higher on average than before the start of the recession. The changes in the unemployment rate vary greatly in different recession periods; the unemployment rate rose extremely rapidly in 2008 and 2020. Historical changes in the unemployment rate before and after the presidential election: Historical averages show that after the presidential election month, the unemployment rate first increased slightly and then fell back. The peak unemployment rate was about 0.08% higher than the average before the election month. In the middle of the presidential replacement year, the rise in the unemployment rate after the election month was more significant and lasting, with the peak unemployment rate being about 0.39% higher on average than before the election month. In the middle of the presidential re-election year, the unemployment rate continued to fluctuate and fall before and after the election month. Our view: The U.S. labor market is still likely to maintain a \"tight balance\" between supply and demand, but the presidential election brings uncertainty. Models based on the economic cycle indicate that the unemployment rate may rise slightly above 4.00% in the coming months. High-frequency data shows the U.S. labor market remains strong. \"Sam\\'s Law\" and \"3-month vs. 12-month Golden Cross\" have not shown that there is a risk of an upward trend in the unemployment rate. The market consensus is that the unemployment rate will rise slowly in 2024 and rise slightly above 4.00%. We predict that the U.S. unemployment rate may reach or slightly exceed 4.00% around the first quarter of 2024, but is expected to stabilize at around 4.00% thereafter; new non-agricultural jobs will also fall first and then stabilize; wage growth is expected to continue to fall and drive the core Inflation cools. Risk warning: The U.S. economy’s faster-than-expected decline may be accompanied by a rapid increase in the unemployment rate. The stronger-than-expected U.S. economy may be accompanied by a lower-than-expected unemployment rate. Business cycle model forecasts are wrong.', 'authorid': UUID('7a207444-a717-5b0e-88ae-471f32b2e6b6'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8737384360283613, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '97G9866C91T5B94SBHBVTK6MENVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:14 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '97G9866C91T5B94SBHBVTK6MENVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9b9dfd4a-beda-50a9-93f8-47fabfcb1b1e'), 'title': 'Quick review of financial data and \"Monetary Policy Implementation Report\": Credit has made a \"good start\" again, why is there still an emphasis on \"revitalizing the stock\"?', 'author': 'Qin Tai', 'orgName': '华金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000134', 'orgSName': '华金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-14', 'encodeUrl': 'tC482kbP7xD12lE7UgxIX13V2HLs3IY/FyBgkShgUpA=', 'researcher': '秦泰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249937'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=tC482kbP7xD12lE7UgxIX13V2HLs3IY/FyBgkShgUpA=', 'site': 'Huajin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402091621204953_1.pdf?1707918792000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402091621204953_1.pdf?1707918792000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Quick review of financial data and \"Monetary Policy Implementation Report\": Credit has made a \"good start\" again, why is there still an emphasis on \"revitalizing the stock\"?', 'originalAuthor': '秦泰', 'originalContent': '投资要点春节错位信贷向1月集中“开门红”再现，居民信贷阶段性改善，企业贷款小幅降温。1月新增信贷4.92万亿，同比小幅多增，今年春节位于2月，新增信贷有更明显的1月集中效应，由此获得较为稳定的信贷“开门红”，但也正因春节错位，2-3月新增信贷的势头可能较去年同期更快衰减。近期多地地产限购政策放松加码，加之春节错位的1月集中效应，居民信贷同比改善比较明显，但2-3月居民信贷可能面临较高基数。房地产市场风险、地方债务风险持续化解，企业增量信贷需求整体有所降温，地产、基建投资今年结构调整的压力仍不可忽视。企业债券、表外融资推动社融高增，但也同样具有明显的春节错位1月集中效应。1月新增社融达6.5万亿，同比多增超5000亿，再创历史单月新高，主要助推因素是表外融资和企业债券融资的明显改善。当春节位于2月时，这两项融资会更大程度向1月集中，但2月可能面临较大的同比下滑压力。1月社融存量同比持平于上月9.5%的增速，2023年10月以来的一轮社融增速改善态势基本得到延续，政府债务融资的集中和增加构成这一轮主要的增量融资来源。春节错位年终奖延迟，财政存款小幅多增，M2增速大幅回落。1月M2同比8.7%，较2023年12月大幅下滑1个百分点，春节错位导致年终奖延迟、财政存款的小幅多增是主要原因，但扣除春节移动因素后，居民存款也相对偏弱，或与房地产市场、股市近期连续走弱导致的财富效应缩水的影响。春节延迟令信用融资需求向1月集中，“开门红”可持续性相对较弱。在房地产市场和地方债务风险化解力度加大的过程中，23Q4《货币政策执行报告》突出强调“盘活信贷存量”、“合理把握债券与信贷两个最大融资市场的关系”，显示经济结构优化升级过程中，质量重于数量，对金融数据的预期应回归理性。财政扩张对内需主动力的夯实作用将走向前台，货币政策将积极做好配合性合理宽松。昨日（2月8日）晚间公布的23Q4《货币政策执行报告》中明确提出，要“合理把握债券于信贷两个最大融资市场的关系”，“支持采取债务重组等方式盘活信贷存量，提升存量贷款使用效率”。在专栏1中，更明确指出“随着我国房地产发展模式重大转型、地方债务风险防范化解，这两块贷款需求都明显下降”，“需更加注重处理好总量与结构、存量与增量的关系，盘活低效存量、不良贷款核销、在社会融资总量中持续提升直接融资占比等”。央行对增量贷款规模和存量贷款使用效率关注度的此消彼长，充分显示出房地产市场风险和地方债务风险的调整是经济结构优化升级过程中长期坚持的发展战略要求，并不是运动式的政策。由此我们也同样不建议对2024年信用扩张的增速抱有过高期待。外部形势复杂严峻的背景下，我国经济发展模式和政策传导模式都已经发生了深刻的变化，夯实以居民消费为代表的内需主动力预计将成为当前和未来一段时间经济政策的核心关切。而财政政策在优化内需结构、提升投资有效性和扩展消费可持续性方面能够发挥的作用是远大于货币政策本身的。央行强调“加强政策协调配合，有效支持促消费、稳投资、扩内需”，维持9月再降准50BP，全年实施向1年期LPR和MLF利率倾斜的小幅降息的货币操作预测不变。期待财政货币和衷共济，有效夯实内需主动力。风险提示：促进内需政策效果不及预期风险，房地产市场调整深度超预期风险。', 'content': 'Investment points: Misplaced credit during the Spring Festival has returned to a \"good start\" in January, with residents\\' credit improving in stages and corporate loans cooling slightly. New credit in January was 4.92 trillion yuan, a slight increase year-on-year. This year’s Spring Festival falls in February, and new credit has a more obvious concentration effect in January, resulting in a relatively stable credit “good start.” However, due to the misalignment of the Spring Festival, The momentum of new credit in February and March may weaken faster than the same period last year. Recently, real estate purchase restriction policies in many places have been relaxed and increased, coupled with the concentrated effect of the Spring Festival in January, residents\\' credit has improved significantly year-on-year, but residents\\' credit may face a higher base in February and March. Real estate market risks and local debt risks continue to be resolved, and the overall incremental credit demand of enterprises has cooled down. The pressure of structural adjustment of real estate and infrastructure investment this year cannot be ignored. Corporate bonds and off-balance sheet financing have driven social financing to soar, but they also have an obvious concentrated effect of the Spring Festival misalignment in January. In January, new social financing reached 6.5 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 500 billion yuan year-on-year, setting a new monthly high in history. The main driving factor was the significant improvement in off-balance sheet financing and corporate bond financing. When the Spring Festival falls in February, these two financings will be more concentrated in January, but February may face greater year-on-year downward pressure. The stock of social financing in January was unchanged from the previous month\\'s 9.5% growth rate. The round of improvement in social financing growth since October 2023 has basically continued. The concentration and increase of government debt financing constitute the main incremental financing in this round. source. Year-end bonuses were delayed during the Spring Festival, fiscal deposits increased slightly, and M2 growth fell sharply. M2 in January was 8.7% year-on-year, a sharp decline of 1 percentage point from December 2023. The misalignment of the Spring Festival led to the delay of year-end bonuses and the slight increase in fiscal deposits were the main reasons. However, after deducting the Spring Festival moving factors, household deposits were also relatively weak, or and the impact of the shrinking wealth effect caused by the recent continued weakness in the real estate market and stock market. The delay in the Spring Festival has concentrated the demand for credit financing towards January, and the sustainability of the \"good start\" is relatively weak. In the process of increasing efforts to resolve risks in the real estate market and local debt, the 23Q4 \"Monetary Policy Implementation Report\" highlighted \"revitalizing the credit stock\" and \"reasonably grasping the relationship between the two largest financing markets of bonds and credit\", showing the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure In the process, quality is more important than quantity, and expectations for financial data should return to rationality. The role of fiscal expansion in consolidating the main driving force of domestic demand will come to the forefront, and monetary policy will be actively coordinated and reasonably loose. The 23Q4 \"Monetary Policy Implementation Report\" released yesterday evening (February 8) clearly stated that it is necessary to \"reasonably grasp the relationship between bonds and the two largest credit financing markets\" and \"support the use of debt restructuring and other methods to revitalize the credit stock and enhance the stock. Loan utilization efficiency”. In column 1, it is clearly pointed out that “with the major transformation of my country’s real estate development model and the prevention and resolution of local debt risks, the demand for loans in these two areas has dropped significantly” and “more attention needs to be paid to handling the balance between total volume and structure, stock and increment” relations, revitalizing inefficient stocks, writing off non-performing loans, and continuing to increase the proportion of direct financing in total social financing.\" The central bank\\'s increasing attention to the scale of incremental loans and the efficiency of existing loans fully demonstrates that the adjustment of real estate market risks and local debt risks is a long-term development strategic requirement in the process of economic structure optimization and upgrading, and is not a movement. policy. Therefore, we also do not recommend having too high expectations for the growth rate of credit expansion in 2024. Against the background of complex and severe external situations, my country\\'s economic development model and policy transmission model have undergone profound changes. Consolidating the main driving force of domestic demand represented by household consumption is expected to become the core concern of economic policy now and in the future. The role that fiscal policy can play in optimizing domestic demand structure, improving investment effectiveness, and expanding consumption sustainability is far greater than monetary policy itself. The central bank emphasized \"strengthening policy coordination and cooperation to effectively support consumption promotion, stabilizing investment, and expanding domestic demand.\" It maintained its monetary operation forecast of another 50 BP cut in September and a slight interest rate cut tilted toward the one-year LPR and MLF interest rates throughout the year. It is expected that fiscal and monetary cooperation will work together to effectively consolidate the main driving force of domestic demand. Risk warning: There is a risk that the effect of policies to promote domestic demand is less than expected, and there is a risk that the real estate market will adjust more deeply than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('ae91a726-1e5a-5a58-8cc8-85a64f6c36b2'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8731614910066128, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '636J66CGBBKTPE0V7RVH749V27VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:17 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '636J66CGBBKTPE0V7RVH749V27VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('504e71ba-dae5-5b38-908d-39155f7bf2f5'), 'title': 'Macro Comment: Why did banks’ “Thunderstorm” 2.0 fail to stop US stocks from reaching new highs?', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-13', 'encodeUrl': '9C4jPD5pZDHJ/nPSkRPrn+7y7qNOdoVSgK+jvQHVJMg=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=9C4jPD5pZDHJ/nPSkRPrn+7y7qNOdoVSgK+jvQHVJMg=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402131621481252_1.pdf?1707919213000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402131621481252_1.pdf?1707919213000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: Why did banks’ “Thunderstorm” 2.0 fail to stop US stocks from reaching new highs?', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '美股又出现地区银行风险，为何美股还是继续创新高？今年1月底以来美国又出现一家地区性银行暴雷、股价大跌的情况——由于出现超预期的亏损，纽约社区银行（NYCB）股价跌超50%，拖累美股地区银行指数下跌9%，不过有趣的是同期标普500创历史的站上5000的关口。与此形成对比的是2023年3月的硅谷银行事件，银行股大跌带来的却是标普指数年内的二次触底。这前后的差异背后我们认为反应了当前海外市场的三点变化：“软着陆+货币宽松”的主流观点越来越“根深蒂固”；局部性风险事件越来越难以“掀起波澜”以及市场预期抢跑之风愈演愈烈。这导致的一个意外结果是海外债市的波动率居高不下，但美股波动率却越来越“淡定”。“当好消息就是好消息”，基本面和市场的心态发生了明显的变化。2024年以来美国市场最大的一点变化就是心态更好了，去年往往会带来市场调整的“好数据”，今年似乎成了市场稳步上升的“压舱石”，主要体现在三个方面：第一，经济似乎确实比预期的要好。我们在之前的报告里说过一般而言，由于季���性和气候等因素，美国经济在第一季度容易出现“鬼故事”，不过今年经济状况在往更加积极的方向转变，尤其是私人固定资产投资和私人库存。第二，“软着陆”的心态更加深入人心。与2023年3月不同的是，当前居民的信心和经济数据形成了“共振”，叠加对美联储降息的“坚信”，成为市场底气的重要来源。第三，小盘股开始出现超额收益。这往往是经济逐步走出衰退或者软着陆时期的重要市场表现，中小企业会展现出更强的弹性。当然除了宏观环境外，这次中小银行的问题确实也有点不一样。与2023年3月不同，这次压力的来源主要不是银行自身，而是商业地产的问题；至于商业地产问题，由于规模可控、区域有限（主要在部分大城市、市中心）、集中在尾部，且从历史上看对于实体经济的溢出影响不大，不太可能成为当前美联储政策关注的重心：第一，问题矛头指向的是商业地产。2023年3月硅谷银行的问题主要来自于投资国债带来的巨额损失，以及对于存款保险的疏忽（只有约10%的存款受保护）；与此形成对比的是本次处于风暴中心的纽约社区银行，其主要的问题在于5.5亿美元的信贷损失（其中1.85亿的减值冲销来自于两处办公楼和公寓贷款）以及为满足更加严格的监管（因为资产规模超过1000亿美元）而大幅削减分红。无独有偶，日本青空银行（AozoraBank)也预告2023年财年可能迎来近15年首次亏损，主要来自于对美国商业办公楼的投资。第二，办公楼的问题最大（区域性），体量不大且集中在“尾部”。根据美联储的数据，2023年第二季度美国商业地产相关信贷在3万亿美元左右，在所有非金融机构信贷占比约7.4%，其中大部分集中在资产规模在500亿美元至1000亿美元的小银行手中。而从构成来看，2023年以来问题最大的部分主要集中在办公楼（以及部分商业中心），根据IMF的测算，2024年这部分对应的融资缺口约300多亿美元。不仅是美国的问题，可能更是全球的问题，根据MSCI的数据，2023年上半年美国中心商业区办公楼的贷款中国际型银行占比25%，区域和本地的银行则占17%。第三，历史上很少出现商业地产带来“大问题”的情况。一个很重要的原因是商业地产对于消费的外溢效应可能比较有限。典型的可参考1990s初——1989年至1993年商业地产价格最大跌幅超过20%，而美国经济经历了史上最弱的衰退（1991年美国实际GDP仅下跌0.1%）。最后不得不感慨的是市场的学习能力，对于外部冲击和事件的消化和反应越来越快。2023年3月硅谷银行事件爆发后，股市和债市花了近1个月的时间才逐步稳定预期、恢复正常——标普500回到事件爆发前的水平、10年美债收益率企稳开始反弹。2024年初纽约社区银行事件之后，这个时间缩短为3天。类似的情形，去年10月中旬美联储主席鲍威尔暗示可能不会再加息之后，短短两个月之内市场便开始定价2024年5次降息、10年美债收益率大跌超过200bp。当预期抢跑成为市场主流，市场的“学习”效应越来越强。美债在政策预期的“反复横跳”中来回波动，而美股却在历经风浪后越来越“淡定。风险提示：经济超预期韧性导致美联储重回加息，美国中小银行风险超预期暴露，拖累全球市场和经济；美国经济超预期陷入衰退，美联储意外提前大幅降息；地缘政治紧张，金融制裁频发，导致金融风险意外暴露。', 'content': 'Regional bank risks appear again in US stocks. Why do US stocks continue to hit new highs? Since the end of January this year, another regional bank in the United States has been hit hard and its stock price has plummeted. Due to unexpected losses, the stock price of New York Community Bank (NYCB) fell by more than 50%, dragging down the U.S. regional bank index to fall by 9%. However, What is interesting is that during the same period, the S&P 500 reached a record high of 5,000. In contrast to the Silicon Valley Bank incident in March 2023, the sharp decline in bank stocks brought the S&P Index to its second bottom this year. We believe that the differences before and after reflect three changes in the current overseas market: the mainstream view of \"soft landing + monetary easing\" is becoming more and more \"deep-rooted\"; it is increasingly difficult for local risk events to \"make waves\" and market expectations are grabbing The running wind intensified. An unexpected result of this is that the volatility of overseas bond markets remains high, but the volatility of US stocks has become increasingly \"calm\". \"When good news is good news,\" fundamentals and the market\\'s mentality have changed significantly. The biggest change in the U.S. market since 2024 is that the mentality is better. Last year often brought \"good data\" for market adjustment. This year it seems to have become the \"ballast stone\" for the market\\'s steady rise, which is mainly reflected in three aspects: First One, the economy does appear to be doing better than expected. We have said in previous reports that generally speaking, the U.S. economy is prone to \"ghost stories\" in the first quarter due to factors such as seasonality and climate. However, this year\\'s economic conditions are changing in a more positive direction, especially for private fixed assets. Investments and private stocks. Second, the \"soft landing\" mentality is more deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Different from March 2023, the current confidence of residents and economic data have formed a \"resonance\", superimposed on the \"firm belief\" in the Federal Reserve\\'s interest rate cut, becoming an important source of market confidence. Third, small-cap stocks began to show excess returns. This is often an important market performance when the economy gradually emerges from recession or soft landing period, and small and medium-sized enterprises will show stronger resilience. Of course, in addition to the macro environment, the problems of small and medium-sized banks are indeed a little different this time. Different from March 2023, the main source of pressure this time is not the bank itself, but the problem of commercial real estate; as for commercial real estate problems, due to the controllable scale, limited area (mainly in some big cities and city centers), and concentration at the tail , and historically speaking, it has little spillover effect on the real economy, and is unlikely to become the focus of the current Fed policy: First, the problem points to commercial real estate. Silicon Valley Bank\\'s problems in March 2023 mainly came from the huge losses caused by investing in treasury bonds and the negligence of deposit insurance (only about 10% of deposits were protected); in contrast, the New York community at the center of the storm The bank\\'s main problems are $550 million in credit losses (of which $185 million were written off on two office and apartment loans) and steep cutbacks to meet tighter regulations as assets exceed $100 billion. Dividends. Coincidentally, Japan\\'s Aozora Bank also predicted that it may experience its first loss in nearly 15 years in fiscal year 2023, mainly due to investment in commercial office buildings in the United States. Second, office buildings have the biggest problem (regional), they are small and concentrated in the \"tail\". According to data from the Federal Reserve, U.S. commercial real estate-related credit in the second quarter of 2023 was around US$3 trillion, accounting for approximately 7.4% of all non-financial institutional credit, most of which is concentrated in assets with an asset size of US$50 billion to US$100 billion. In the hands of small banks. From the perspective of composition, the biggest problems since 2023 are mainly concentrated in office buildings (and some commercial centers). According to IMF calculations, the corresponding financing gap in this part in 2024 will be about more than 30 billion US dollars. It is not only a problem in the United States, but may be a global problem. According to MSCI data, in the first half of 2023, international banks accounted for 25% of loans for office buildings in central business districts in the United States, while regional and local banks accounted for 17%. Third, historically there have been few instances where commercial real estate has caused “big problems.” A very important reason is that the spillover effect of commercial real estate on consumption may be limited. For a typical example, refer to the early 1990s - from 1989 to 1993, commercial real estate prices fell by more than 20%, while the U.S. economy experienced the weakest recession in history (U.S. real GDP fell by only 0.1% in 1991). Finally, I have to sigh with emotion at the market’s ability to learn and digest and respond to external shocks and events faster and faster. After the Silicon Valley Bank incident broke out in March 2023, it took the stock and bond markets nearly a month to gradually stabilize expectations and return to normal - the S&P 500 returned to the level before the incident broke out, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields began to stabilize. rebound. After the New York Community Bank incident in early 2024, this time was shortened to 3 days. In a similar situation, in mid-October last year, after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that he might not raise interest rates, within just two months, the market began to price in five interest rate cuts in 2024, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield plummeted by more than 200bp. When the expected front-running becomes the mainstream of the market, the market\\'s \"learning\" effect becomes stronger and stronger. U.S. bonds have fluctuated back and forth amid \"repeated jumps\" in policy expectations, while U.S. stocks have become increasingly \"calm\" after going through storms. Risk warning: The economy\\'s stronger-than-expected resilience has led the Federal Reserve to return to raising interest rates, and the risks of small and medium-sized U.S. banks have exceeded expectations. Dragging down the global market and economy; the U.S. economy fell into recession beyond expectations, and the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates sharply ahead of schedule; geopolitical tensions and frequent financial sanctions led to unexpected exposure to financial risks.', 'authorid': UUID('3e13aacd-4f9d-5fd5-a06a-c110c5c84254'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9593658251687884, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '36PC2A0D6A68EDSP4GROR5FV53VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:19 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '36PC2A0D6A68EDSP4GROR5FV53VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c4e77a0a-bbd1-5d4e-b193-5ba428796182'), 'title': 'The price level first moves towards 1%', 'author': 'Xie Yunliang ,Mai Linyue', 'orgName': '信达证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80092742', 'orgSName': '信达证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-09', 'encodeUrl': 'FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA0758F9GOtNfwTW12tLrK5o=', 'researcher': '解运亮,麦麟玥', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000243225', '11000440452'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA0758F9GOtNfwTW12tLrK5o=', 'site': 'Cinda Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '信达证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621145927_1.pdf?1707470883000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621145927_1.pdf?1707470883000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The price level first moves towards 1%', 'originalAuthor': '解运亮,麦麟玥', 'originalContent': '剔除高基数后，国内需求不足仍存。今年1月CPI同比降幅继续扩大，有上年同期春节效应带来的高基数影响，但剔除高基数后，国内需求不足的问题也仍然存在。2023年至今的这轮价格水平形势，和2009年面临的形势有所区别。对比来看，近期这轮“类通缩”价格水平的全面性弱于2009年，因此2024年内CPI转正的难度或低于2009年。展望2月，由于“春节错位”转向拉升CPI，我们预计2月CPI同比增速有较大概率回正。部分工业品需求好转，PPI降幅收窄。由于国内部分行业进入传统生产淡季，全国PPI环比依旧为负，但环比降幅也已出现收窄。分行业来看，黑色链和有色链价格环比回升是PPI环比降幅收窄的重要支撑。其中，节前钢材补库需求增加，带动了黑色金属冶炼价格环比上涨；而部分地区采暖需求增加，也带动煤炭开采洗选业价格回升，这也解释了采掘价格环比好转、带动生产资料价格回升这一现象。价格水平先向着1%迈进。总体来看，今年CPI向3%迈进有阻力，我们认为2024年CPI或先向着1%迈进。而这轮物价水平形势的表现，或也决定了2024年货币政策的方向。我们认为，当前实际利率仍偏高，因此今年货币政策宽松或难结束，仍有降息空间。而我们面临的最大问题是如何加快资金流动效率和传导效率，以推动实体经济发展。基于这一考虑，我们认为，全年整个货币政策可能更倾向于使用结构性货币政策工具来精准支持。风险因素：地缘政治风险，国际油价上涨超预期等。', 'content': 'After excluding the high base, insufficient domestic demand still exists. The year-on-year decline in CPI continued to expand in January this year, due to the high base caused by the Spring Festival effect in the same period last year. However, after excluding the high base, the problem of insufficient domestic demand still exists. The current price level situation from 2023 to now is different from the situation faced in 2009. In comparison, the recent round of \"deflation-like\" price levels is less comprehensive than in 2009, so it may be less difficult to turn the CPI positive in 2024 than in 2009. Looking forward to February, due to the \"Spring Festival Dislocation\" turning to increase CPI, we expect that the year-on-year CPI growth rate in February has a high probability of returning to positive. Demand for some industrial products improved, and the decline in PPI narrowed. As some domestic industries have entered the traditional production off-season, the national PPI is still negative month-on-month, but the month-on-month decline has also narrowed. From an industry perspective, the month-on-month rebound in prices of black and non-ferrous chains is an important support for the narrowing of the month-on-month decline in PPI. Among them, the increased demand for steel replenishment before the holidays has driven up the price of ferrous metal smelting month-on-month; while the increase in demand for heating in some areas has also driven up the price of the coal mining and washing industry, which also explains the month-on-month improvement in mining prices and the rebound in the price of production materials. this phenomenon. The price level first moves towards 1%. Overall, there is resistance to CPI moving towards 3% this year. We believe that CPI may move towards 1% first in 2024. The performance of this round of price level conditions may also determine the direction of monetary policy in 2024. We believe that the current real interest rates are still on the high side, so it may be difficult to end the easing of monetary policy this year, and there is still room for interest rate cuts. The biggest problem we face is how to speed up the efficiency of capital flow and transmission to promote the development of the real economy. Based on this consideration, we believe that the entire monetary policy throughout the year may be more inclined to use structural monetary policy tools for precise support. Risk factors: geopolitical risks, higher-than-expected rise in international oil prices, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('3f9d3803-89e6-5e94-a0a5-28b6565d83a1'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7964841201901436, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'N222K46J59P4G968R5SJJIDTQ3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:22 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'N222K46J59P4G968R5SJJIDTQ3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('27c88324-d2b5-5747-8067-5cced724636d'), 'title': 'Financial Market Analysis Weekly', 'author': 'Fu Yang', 'orgName': '中航证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000197', 'orgSName': '中航证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-08', 'encodeUrl': 'FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWAydsErvJLy1IMSdgBF4tQ0I=', 'researcher': '符旸', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177393'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWAydsErvJLy1IMSdgBF4tQ0I=', 'site': 'AVIC Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中航证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621144301_1.pdf?1707429222000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621144301_1.pdf?1707429222000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Financial Market Analysis Weekly', 'originalAuthor': '符旸', 'originalContent': '报告摘要工业企业利润：国家统计局网站1月27日信息显示，2023年全年（1-12月），全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额76858.30亿元，同比下降2.3%，降幅较1-11月继续收窄2.1个百分点；12月规模以上工业企业利润同比上涨16.80%，增幅较11月收窄12.7个百分点。PMI：2024年1月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点。2023年10月至12月PMI连续三个月下滑，本月超季节性回升。1月新订单指数49.0%，较2023年12月小幅反弹0.3个百分点，新出口订单较上月明显上行1.4个百分点至47.2%。生产指数实现51.3%，较2023年12月明显回升1.1个百分点；原材料库存指数47.6%，较2023年12月继续下降0.1个百分点。资金面分析：跨月结束，资金价格回落；下周一降准0.5个百分点，逆回购到期量位于高位，关注跨春节期间央行操作。本周央行开展了17470亿元逆回购操作，因有19770亿元逆回购到期，全周净回笼2300亿元本周前半周跨月，资金价格小幅上行，随本周四跨月结束，各期限资金价格整体回落。下周春节来临，历史来看，春节期间由于社会取现需求增强，资金面存在收紧趋势，下周首要关注春节对于资金面的冲击。此外政府债融资额有所上行，但相较去年融资高点仍存差距，预计对于资金面存在一定影响。下周一将降准0.5个百分点，预计释放流动性1万亿元，将一定程度上缓解资金压力。最后下周逆回购到期量仍位于高位，关注央行续作情况。利率债：本周PMI数据发布，环比回升，悲观经济预期+降息预期+权益市场大幅下行下，利率债本周大幅下行，即将下破2.4%，目前看盘面有price-in所有利好趋势，无明显利空下继续下行，挑战2.4%点位，机构追涨下有进一步下行的可能。官方制造业PMI为49.2，前值49，官方非制造业PMI为50.7，前值50.4。制造业：分企业类型看，大型企业（+0.4->50.4）和中型企业（+0.2->48.9）有一定恢复，小型企业（-0.1->47.2）回落；分类指数看，生产指数（+1.1->51.3）和供应商配送时间指数（+0.5->50.8）高于临界点，新订单指数（+0.3->49）、原材料库存指数（-0.1->47.6）和从业人员指数（-0.3->47.6）低于临界点。需求仍需改善，原材料继续去库存，新出口订单上升但低于荣枯线，出口仍看不到转向的迹象。��制造业：分行业看，建筑业（-0.3->53.9），服务业（+0.8->50.1），铁路运输、邮政、货币金融服务等行业商务活动指数均位于60.0及以上高位景气区间；资本市场服务、房地产及公共设施管理等行业低于荣枯线。地产政策在广州发布政策后，市场预期一线城市会跟随，目前深圳未发布，上海地产政策完全低于预期，仅针对未婚单身人群放开外环，深圳随后政策跟随可能性极大，北京政策放开可能性较低。地产继续低位，难言反转，主要系居民收入预期及房价未来预期改变。PSL1月投放1500亿，后续继续关注持续性。市场仍旧预期降息，OMO本周未降，上周提及降息受制于银行净息差及联储高息，降息空间有限。债市在无明显利空下继续下行，挑战2.4%点位，机构追涨下有进一步下行的可能。权益市场：本周A股市场指数整体下跌，北向资金呈净流入状态，市场活跃度有所下降。北向资金本周呈净流入状态，净买入金额为99.37亿元。上证指数、深证成指、沪深300、科创50、创业板指、中证500、中证1000分别下跌6.19%、8.06%、4.63%、9.74%、7.85%、9.23%、13.19%。分行业来看，综合、社会服务、计算机表现较弱，分别下跌15.15%、15.08%、14.20%。整体来看，本周市场表现不佳的主要原因为：1）1月PMI数据公布，显示仍处于枯荣线以下；2）十年期国债收益率持续下行并创十年以来新低；3）美联储方面3月降息预期减弱。展望未来，美联储或于5月开启首次降息。逆周期调控为市场注入活力，活跃资本市场动作接连落地。在宽货币向宽信用传导的需求背景下，2024年Q1降息概率仍较大。由于央企盈利稳健且分红较高，过去五年高股息指数的表现优于市场，这一势头有望延续。在央企改革推动下，在“一企一策”考核对于央企共性量化指标与个体企业差异性的统筹下，央企值得重点关注。此轮科技产业浪潮背景下，我们重点看好科技相关央企的表现。美元指数分析：美联储FOMC会议维持利率目标不变，美国1月份非农就业数据超预期，美元指数本周维持上行。本周美联储2024年第一次FOMC会议决议公布，会后美联储维持利率目标不变，符合市场预期。会后美联储主席鲍威尔称对降息持开放态度，但三月份降息可能性较小。随3月份临近，美联储此次表态进一步降低了3月降息的可能。除美联储FOMC会议外，本周五公布的美国1月份非农就业数据再超市场预期，工资同比增速同样位于高位。随非农就业数据公布，市场认为美联储3月份降息的可能性进一步下行，本周美元指数维持近几周的上涨趋势。风险提示：货币政策超预期收紧经济超预期复苏导致债券收益率大幅反弹地方财政状况恶化导致城投债信用风险集中显现美国经济及通胀数据超预期下美联储紧缩周期延长', 'content': 'Report summary Industrial enterprise profits: Information on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics on January 27 showed that for the whole year of 2023 (January-December), the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide was 7.68583 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, and the decline was greater than that of 1-11 It continued to narrow by 2.1 percentage points in December; profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in December rose by 16.80% year-on-year, and the growth rate narrowed by 12.7 percentage points compared with November. PMI: In January 2024, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The PMI declined for three consecutive months from October to December 2023, and then rebounded super-seasonally this month. The new orders index in January was 49.0%, a slight rebound of 0.3 percentage points from December 2023, and new export orders increased significantly by 1.4 percentage points from the previous month to 47.2%. The production index achieved 51.3%, a significant rebound of 1.1 percentage points from December 2023; the raw material inventory index was 47.6%, continuing to decrease by 0.1 percentage points from December 2023. Capital analysis: At the end of the month, capital prices have fallen; the reserve requirement ratio will be reduced by 0.5 percentage points next Monday, and the maturity amount of reverse repurchase is at a high level. Pay attention to the central bank\\'s operations during the Spring Festival. This week, the central bank launched a 1,747 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation. As 1,977 billion yuan of reverse repurchases expired, a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan was made throughout the week. The first half of this week crossed the month. Fund prices rose slightly, and it ended on Thursday. , fund prices of all maturities fell overall. The Spring Festival is coming next week. Historically, due to the increased social demand for cash withdrawals during the Spring Festival, there is a tightening trend in funds. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the Spring Festival on funds. In addition, the amount of government debt financing has increased, but there is still a gap compared with last year\\'s financing high point, which is expected to have a certain impact on funding. The reserve requirement ratio will be cut by 0.5 percentage points next Monday, and it is expected to release 1 trillion yuan of liquidity, which will alleviate financial pressure to a certain extent. Finally, the maturity volume of reverse repurchase next week will still be at a high level, and attention will be paid to the central bank\\'s continuation. Interest rate bonds: PMI data was released this week, with a month-on-month rebound, pessimistic economic expectations + interest rate cut expectations + a sharp decline in the equity market. Interest rate bonds fell sharply this week, and will soon fall below 2.4%. Currently, there are all positive price-in trends on the market, but none It continues to decline under the obvious negative conditions, challenging the 2.4% point. There is a possibility of further decline as institutions chase the rise. The official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, compared with the previous value of 49, and the official non-manufacturing PMI was 50.7, compared with the previous value of 50.4. Manufacturing industry: In terms of enterprise types, large enterprises (+0.4->50.4) and medium-sized enterprises (+0.2->48.9) have recovered to a certain extent, while small enterprises (-0.1->47.2) have fallen back; in terms of sub-indexes, the production index (+ 1.1->51.3) and supplier delivery time index (+0.5->50.8) are higher than the critical point, new order index (+0.3->49), raw material inventory index (-0.1->47.6) and employee index (- 0.3->47.6) below the critical point. Demand still needs to improve, raw materials continue to be destocked, new export orders are rising but below the boom-bust line, and exports still show no signs of turning. Non-manufacturing industry: Looking at different industries, the construction industry (-0.3->53.9), service industry (+0.8->50.1), railway transportation, postal service, monetary and financial services and other industries\\' business activity indexes are all in the high and prosperous range of 60.0 and above; Industries such as capital market services, real estate and public facilities management are below the boom-bust line. After the real estate policy was released in Guangzhou, the market expected that first-tier cities would follow suit. Currently, Shenzhen has not released the policy. Shanghai’s real estate policy is completely lower than expected. It only liberalizes the outer ring for unmarried singles. Shenzhen is very likely to follow the policy, and Beijing’s policy will be relaxed. The probability of opening is low. Real estate continues to be at a low level, and it is difficult to say that it will reverse. This is mainly due to changes in residents\\' income expectations and future housing price expectations. PSL invested 150 billion in January and will continue to focus on sustainability in the future. The market still expects an interest rate cut, and OMO did not cut it this week. Last week, it was mentioned that interest rate cuts are subject to bank net interest margins and the Federal Reserve\\'s high interest rates, and there is limited room for interest rate cuts. The bond market continues to decline without obvious negative effects, challenging the 2.4% level. There is a possibility of further decline as institutions pursue the rise. Equity market: The A-share market index fell overall this week, northbound funds showed a net inflow, and market activity declined. Northbound funds showed a net inflow this week, with a net purchase amount of 9.937 billion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index, CSI 300, Science and Technology 50, GEM Index, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 fell by 6.19%, 8.06%, 4.63%, 9.74%, 7.85%, 9.23%, and 13.19% respectively. In terms of industries, comprehensive, social services, and computers performed weakly, falling 15.15%, 15.08%, and 14.20% respectively. Overall, the main reasons for the poor performance of the market this week are: 1) The January PMI data was released, showing that it is still below the recession line; 2) The ten-year Treasury bond yield continued to decline and hit a new low in ten years; 3) The Federal Reserve On the other hand, expectations for a rate cut in March have weakened. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates for the first time in May. Countercyclical regulation has injected vitality into the market, and active capital market actions have been implemented one after another. Against the background of the demand for loose money to widen credit transmission, the probability of an interest rate cut in Q1 of 2024 is still high. The high dividend index has outperformed the market over the past five years due to solid profits and high dividends from state-owned enterprises, and this momentum is expected to continue. Driven by the reform of central enterprises, and with the \"one enterprise, one policy\" assessment coordinating the common quantitative indicators of central enterprises and the differences of individual enterprises, central enterprises deserve special attention. Against the background of this wave of technology industry, we focus on the performance of technology-related central enterprises. U.S. dollar index analysis: The Federal Reserve\\'s FOMC meeting kept the interest rate target unchanged, and the U.S. non-farm payrolls data in January exceeded expectations. The U.S. dollar index maintained its upward trend this week. This week the resolution of the Federal Reserve\\'s first FOMC meeting in 2024 was announced. After the meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its interest rate target unchanged, in line with market expectations. After the meeting, Fed Chairman Powell said he was open to cutting interest rates, but a rate cut in March was unlikely. As March approaches, the Fed\\'s statement further reduces the possibility of an interest rate cut in March. In addition to the Federal Reserve\\'s FOMC meeting, the U.S. non-farm employment data for January released this Friday once again exceeded market expectations, and the year-on-year wage growth rate was also at a high level. With the release of non-farm payrolls data, the market believes that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March will further decline. This week, the U.S. dollar index maintained its upward trend in recent weeks. Risk warning: Monetary policy has tightened more than expected. The economy has recovered more than expected, resulting in a sharp rebound in bond yields. The deterioration of local fiscal conditions has led to the concentration of credit risks on urban investment bonds. The Fed\\'s tightening cycle has been extended due to U.S. economic and inflation data exceeding expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('0a85bc8e-d406-5429-b05e-8a205ba6d31c'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8683179952204227, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '4ENIBKHLT10CC093QLO9D8GJRBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:25 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '4ENIBKHLT10CC093QLO9D8GJRBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('43eefd47-b3ab-5163-9490-bdb356870c8c'), 'title': 'January Inflation Comments: It is expected that the year-on-year growth rates of CPI and PPI in the first half of the year will maintain an upward trend', 'author': 'Zhang Xiaojiao, Zhu Qibing', 'orgName': '中银国际证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000200', 'orgSName': '中银证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-08', 'encodeUrl': 'FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA691ix8ql3mjkX3IYLJoT2M=', 'researcher': '张晓娇,朱启兵', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000213120', '11000224223'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA691ix8ql3mjkX3IYLJoT2M=', 'site': 'BOCI Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中银证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621143020_1.pdf?1707427441000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621143020_1.pdf?1707427441000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'January Inflation Comments: It is expected that the year-on-year growth rates of CPI and PPI in the first half of the year will maintain an upward trend', 'originalAuthor': '张晓娇,朱启兵', 'originalContent': '1月PPI同比增速符合市场预期，CPI同比增速低于市场预期；CPI环比连续两个月正增长，但受高基数和食品价格拖累，同比增速较12月有所下降；此外服务价格环比也较历史同期平均水平偏弱；内需整体维持此前趋势：复苏仍在，斜率偏低；PPI同比增速预计将持续受益于低基数、补库存周期、中美库存周期共振、国内固投增速维持在偏高水平等因素提振；预计上半年CPI和PPI同比增速都将维持上行趋势。1月CPI环比上升0.3%，同比下降0.8%，核心CPI同比增长0.4%，服务价格同比增长0.5%，消费品价格同比下降1.7%。从环比看，1月食品价格上涨0.4%，影响CPI上涨约0.08个百分点，非食品价格由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%，影响CPI上涨约0.19个百分点；从同比看，食品价格下降5.9%，影响CPI下降约1.13个百分点，非食品价格上涨0.4%，影响CPI上涨约0.32个百分点。虽然有春节假期的影响，需求仍显疲弱。1月CPI环比持续正增长，但在去年同期高基数影响下同比增速有所回落。食品是影响CPI同比增速走弱的最主要因素：从环比增速看，去年同期有疫情防控转段后消费需求增加和春节假期在1月的双重影响，因此形成了较高的环比基数；从同比看，1月食品中猪肉、鲜菜和鲜果三者合计影响CPI同比下降0.78个百分点，占CPI同比增速降幅九成多。从CPI各分类的环比增速与历史同期平均水平比较看，1月食品环比增长0.4%，增速明显低于2015年-2022年期间1月食品平均环比增速2.5%，受食品影响，消费品1月环比增速0.2%也较历史同期平均水平0.9%明显偏低，但此外非食品环比增长0.2%，服务价格环比增长0.4%，均低于历史同期平均水平0.1个百分点。我们认为1月物价反应出的消费表现仍延续了此前的趋势：持续复苏，但斜率偏低。但是2月之后，CPI环比将出现连续五个月的负增长，低基数将带动CPI同比增速触底回升。1月PPI环比下降0.2%，同比下降2.5%，其中生产资料同比下降3.0%，生活资料同比下降1.1%。PPIRM同比下降3.4%。受国际大宗商品价格波动、国内部分行业进入传统生产淡季等因素影响，全国PPI环比、同比下降，但降幅均收窄。从同比看，主要行业中，煤炭开采和洗选业、化学原料和化学制品制造业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业、电气机械和器材制造业和计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业，5个行业降幅比上月均有收窄，合计影响PPI同比下降约1.47个百分点，对PPI的下拉作用比上月减少0.28个百分点。PPI同比增速上行趋势有望延续。1月PPI生产资料和生活资料环比增速虽然较历史同期平均水平偏弱，但同比增速较12月小幅上升。我们认为2024年PPI同比增速上行和工业企业盈利能力持续修复仍是大趋势，主要原因有几个：一是2024年7月及之前，低基数将有利于PPI同比增速走高，二是国内工业企业补库存周期的影响，三是中美库存周期可能共振上行，四是国内固定资产投资增速或保持在偏高水平，包括基建投资高增和房地产投资增速边际向好。风险提示：全球通胀回落偏慢；欧美经济回落速度偏快；国际局势复杂化。', 'content': 'The year-on-year growth rate of PPI in January was in line with market expectations, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI was lower than market expectations; CPI had positive growth for two consecutive months month-on-month, but was dragged down by a high base and food prices, and the year-on-year growth rate declined compared with December; in addition, service prices The month-on-month period is also weaker than the historical average for the same period; domestic demand overall maintains the previous trend: recovery is still there, with a low slope; PPI year-on-year growth is expected to continue to benefit from the low base, the inventory replenishment cycle, the resonance of the Sino-US inventory cycle, and the increase in domestic fixed investment Boosted by factors such as the growth rate remaining at a relatively high level; it is expected that the year-on-year growth rates of CPI and PPI in the first half of the year will maintain an upward trend. In January, CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and decreased by 0.8% year-on-year. Core CPI increased by 0.4% year-on-year. Service prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year. Consumer goods prices fell by 1.7% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, food prices increased by 0.4% in January, affecting the CPI increase by approximately 0.08 percentage points. Non-food prices increased from a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month to an increase of 0.2%, affecting a CPI increase of approximately 0.19 percentage points. From a year-on-year perspective, food prices fell by approximately 0.19 percentage points. 5.9%, affecting the CPI to fall by about 1.13 percentage points. Non-food prices increased by 0.4%, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.32 percentage points. Despite the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, demand is still weak. CPI continued to show positive month-on-month growth in January, but the year-on-year growth rate fell back due to the high base in the same period last year. Food is the most important factor affecting the weakening year-on-year growth rate of CPI: Looking at the month-on-month growth rate, the same period last year had the dual impact of increased consumer demand after the epidemic prevention and control period and the Spring Festival holiday in January, thus forming a higher month-on-month base. ; From a year-on-year perspective, pork, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits in food combined in January affected the CPI to fall by 0.78 percentage points year-on-year, accounting for more than 90% of the year-on-year CPI growth rate decline. Comparing the month-on-month growth rate of various CPI categories with the historical average for the same period, food increased by 0.4% month-on-month in January, which was significantly lower than the average month-on-month growth rate of 2.5% in January from 2015 to 2022. Affected by food, consumer goods The month-on-month growth rate of 0.2% in January was also significantly lower than the historical average of 0.9% for the same period. However, in addition, non-food prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and service prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, both of which were 0.1 percentage points lower than the historical average for the same period. We believe that the consumption performance reflected by prices in January continued the previous trend: continued recovery, but at a low slope. However, after February, the CPI will experience negative growth for five consecutive months on a month-on-month basis, and the low base will drive the year-on-year CPI growth to bottom out and rebound. In January, PPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, with production materials falling by 3.0% year-on-year and living materials falling by 1.1% year-on-year. PPIRM decreased by 3.4% year-on-year. Affected by factors such as fluctuations in international commodity prices and the entry of some domestic industries into the traditional production off-season, the national PPI declined month-on-month and year-on-year, but the decline narrowed. From a year-on-year perspective, among the main industries, there are five industries: coal mining and washing industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, petroleum coal and other fuel processing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, and computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry. The declines were narrower than last month, and the total impact on PPI was about 1.47 percentage points year-on-year, and the pull-down effect on PPI was 0.28 percentage points less than last month. The upward trend in PPI year-on-year growth is expected to continue. Although the month-on-month growth rate of PPI for production materials and living materials in January was weaker than the historical average for the same period, the year-on-year growth rate was slightly higher than that in December. We believe that the upward year-on-year growth rate of PPI in 2024 and the continued restoration of profitability of industrial enterprises are still major trends. There are several main reasons: first, in July 2024 and before, the low base will be conducive to higher year-on-year growth rate of PPI; second, domestic The impact of the inventory replenishment cycle of industrial enterprises is that the inventory cycle of China and the United States may resonate upward, and the growth rate of domestic fixed asset investment may remain at a relatively high level, including a high increase in infrastructure investment and a marginal improvement in the growth rate of real estate investment. Risk warning: Global inflation is falling slowly; European and American economies are falling quickly; the international situation is complicated.', 'authorid': UUID('52d6affa-3156-5e62-b963-6ddd41b8d0d3'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9558208342641592, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'O4O2VEL9LT1F3PSE7NMV1148INVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:27 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'O4O2VEL9LT1F3PSE7NMV1148INVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0ae26d79-092b-52d2-9b02-d4d6fea821ef'), 'title': 'The mismatch during the Spring Festival drove down the CPI, and the overall price fell first and then rose throughout the year.', 'author': 'Xu Dongshi, Lu Lei', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-08', 'encodeUrl': 'FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWAxtV+ZE41ec/FsZ/QbE+Tkc=', 'researcher': '许冬石,吕雷', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000185520', '11000443769'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWAxtV+ZE41ec/FsZ/QbE+Tkc=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621141905_1.pdf?1707426186000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621141905_1.pdf?1707426186000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The mismatch during the Spring Festival drove down the CPI, and the overall price fell first and then rose throughout the year.', 'originalAuthor': '许冬石,吕雷', 'originalContent': '主要结论：1月CPI同比下降0.8%（前值-0.3%），主要受上年同期春节错月高基数影响，环比上行0.3%（前值0.1%），其中翘尾因素影响为-1.1%，新涨价因素影响为0.3%。PPI同比-2.5%，环比下降0.2%。服务价格回升推动CPI环比上行，黑色系商品价格支撑PPI弱势回升服务价格上行但仍偏弱，交通燃料下行和家庭服务不及预期是主要拖累。服务价格上涨0.4%但仍处于偏弱区位，过去五年环比均值为0.58%，主要源于交通工具燃料大幅下降，1月交通工具燃料环比下行1%，带动交通和通信项价格影响CPI下行约0.27%。家用服务价格环比上行2.7%，家用器具��格环比上行0.6%。食品项中，猪肉价格下行0.2%，鲜菜价格上行3.8%，需求端平稳，食品项价格涨幅不及预期。其它商品中，旅游价格环比上行4.2%，交通工具价格下行0.1%，教育服务价格持平，水电价格环比0.1%，符合季节性波动。中药价格同比上涨放缓，衣着和通信工具价格环比均下行0.3%。PPI环比延续下行，上游的原油、中游的设备和下游的消费品价格走低。上游的石油和天然气开采（-0.8%）、中游的石油、煤炭及燃料加工业（-1.7%）、化学原料和化学制品业（-1.1%）、橡胶和塑料制品业（-0.4%）价格下行；黑色系产品线价格持续回升，黑色金属矿（+2.3%）、有色金属矿（+0.6%）、黑色金属冶炼（+0.4%）、有色金属冶炼（+0.3%）价格走高；下游的食品（+0.2%）、医药（+0.2%）价格小幅上行，但是相关的煤炭、非金属矿、中游设备的铁路船舶、航空航天设备、计算机设备、汽车和下游的纺织、造纸呈现疲弱状态。我们的分析：CPI春节错配外其他增长偏低，PPI中黑色产业链亮眼开年CPI同比创出新低主要是因为春节错配的影响。春节错配对于非食品的影响弱于食品。1月份CPI环比的涨幅同样偏弱。从同比涨幅中也能看到，猪肉、蔬菜和原油价格仍然是拉动CPI同比下跌的主要商品。服务类价格在1月份意外上行，寒假旅游和暑假旅游相似，带动了住宿、餐饮等旅游消费价格。也要看到，尽管旅游和服务价格提前启动，但是核心CPI继续下行，整体社会消费不振。PPI环比回落，上游的原油、中游的设备和下游的消费品价格走低。黑色产业链表现出了更好的景气度。从上游的煤炭和黑色金属矿到中游的黑色和有色金属冶炼价格走高。1月份公用事业出厂价格持续走高，冬季燃气的生产供应和电力热力供应季节性走高。CPI和PPI全年前低后高尽管存在春节错配，但是1月份环比涨幅仍然低于往年水平。2月份CPI会顺势转正，但是低位运行的CPI可能会持续全年。2024年度预计CPI仍然是前低后高的走势，全年CPI预计在0.5%左右运行，4季度CPI回到1%以上。2月份由于春节错配的影响预计CPI回升至0.8%左右。PPI的回升速度偏缓，原材料价格的上行仍然没有得到下游行业的认同。1月份黑色产业链的回升仍然需要观察。房地产行业的运行对于黑色系产品仍然至关重要，黑色产品的出口也需要继续观察。2024年度PPI翘尾影响减弱，PPI环比的小幅回升会带动PPI同比的快速上行。我们预计3季度PPI增速转正，全年PPI保持前低后高运行。风险提示：1.房地产持续回落的风险2.大宗商品大幅下行的风险', 'content': 'Main conclusion: CPI fell by 0.8% year-on-year in January (previous value -0.3%), mainly affected by the high base of the Spring Festival in the same period last year, and increased by 0.3% month-on-month (previous value 0.1%), of which the impact of tail-lift factors was -1.1% , the impact of new price increases is 0.3%. PPI was -2.5% year-on-year, down 0.2% month-on-month. The rebound in service prices pushed the CPI up month-on-month. The price of black goods supported the weak rebound in PPI. Service prices rose but were still weak. The decline in transportation fuel and lower-than-expected household services were the main drags. Service prices increased by 0.4% but were still in a weak position. The month-on-month average in the past five years was 0.58%. This was mainly due to the sharp decline in transportation fuels. In January, transportation fuels fell by 1% month-on-month, driving the price of transportation and communication items to affect the CPI downward by about 1%. 0.27%. The price of household services increased by 2.7% month-on-month, and the price of household appliances increased by 0.6% month-on-month. Among food items, pork prices fell by 0.2%, while fresh vegetable prices rose by 3.8%. The demand side was stable, and the price increase of food items was lower than expected. Among other commodities, tourism prices increased by 4.2% month-on-month, transportation prices fell by 0.1%, educational service prices remained unchanged, and water and electricity prices were 0.1% month-on-month, in line with seasonal fluctuations. The price increase of traditional Chinese medicine slowed down year-on-year, and the prices of clothing and communication tools both fell by 0.3% month-on-month. PPI continued to decline month-on-month, and the prices of upstream crude oil, midstream equipment, and downstream consumer goods fell. Upstream oil and natural gas extraction (-0.8%), midstream petroleum, coal and fuel processing industry (-1.7%), chemical raw materials and chemical products industry (-1.1%), rubber and plastic products industry (-0.4%) prices Downward; prices of ferrous product lines continue to rise, with prices of ferrous metal ores (+2.3%), non-ferrous metal ores (+0.6%), ferrous metal smelting (+0.4%), and non-ferrous metal smelting (+0.3%) rising; downstream prices Prices of food (+0.2%) and medicine (+0.2%) rose slightly, but related coal, non-metallic minerals, midstream equipment such as railways and ships, aerospace equipment, computer equipment, automobiles and downstream textiles and papermaking showed weakness. Our analysis: Except for the Spring Festival mismatch in CPI, other growth rates are low. The black industry chain in PPI has a bright start. CPI hit a new low year-on-year mainly due to the impact of the Spring Festival mismatch. The impact of Spring Festival mismatch on non-food items is weaker than that on food items. The month-on-month increase in CPI in January was also weak. It can also be seen from the year-on-year increase that pork, vegetable and crude oil prices are still the main commodities driving the year-on-year decline in CPI. Service prices unexpectedly rose in January. Winter vacation travel is similar to summer vacation travel, which has driven up the prices of accommodation, catering and other tourism consumption. It should also be noted that despite the early start of tourism and service prices, the core CPI continues to decline, and overall social consumption is sluggish. PPI fell month-on-month, and the prices of upstream crude oil, midstream equipment and downstream consumer goods fell. The black industrial chain showed better prosperity. Prices from coal and ferrous metal mines in the upstream to ferrous and non-ferrous metal smelting in the midstream are rising. The ex-factory price of public utilities continued to rise in January, and the production and supply of gas and electricity and heat supply increased seasonally in winter. Although CPI and PPI were low at first and then high throughout the year, despite the Spring Festival mismatch, the month-on-month increase in January was still lower than in previous years. The CPI will turn positive in February, but the low CPI may continue throughout the year. In 2024, the CPI is expected to continue to trend from low to high. The CPI for the whole year is expected to be around 0.5%, and the CPI in the fourth quarter will return to more than 1%. In February, the CPI is expected to rebound to around 0.8% due to the impact of the Spring Festival mismatch. The recovery rate of PPI is slow, and the rise in raw material prices is still not recognized by downstream industries. The recovery of the black industry chain in January still needs to be observed. The operation of the real estate industry is still crucial to black products, and the export of black products also needs to continue to be observed. The impact of PPI hikes in 2024 will weaken, and the slight month-on-month rebound in PPI will drive a rapid rise in PPI year-on-year. We expect PPI growth to turn positive in the third quarter, and PPI to remain low at first and then high throughout the year. Risk warning: 1. The risk of a continued decline in real estate 2. The risk of a sharp decline in commodities', 'authorid': UUID('470e8441-710b-59d0-89ec-ecf774931dc4'), 'sentimentScore': -0.948090735822916, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'ELLVIF9UF2QN9MNB1IO8UL07UJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:31 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'ELLVIF9UF2QN9MNB1IO8UL07UJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('297872f6-7543-5fc2-859d-7764acb36b3d'), 'title': 'Macro Research: Seizing Investment Opportunities in the Silver Economy', 'author': 'Jin Han , Yan Xiang', 'orgName': '华福证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000065', 'orgSName': '华福证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-08', 'encodeUrl': 'FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWAwuu4qRYbgJG66sr7ml9iH8=', 'researcher': '金晗,燕翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000421032', '11000223033'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWAwuu4qRYbgJG66sr7ml9iH8=', 'site': 'Huafu Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华福证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621137901_1.pdf?1707420823000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621137901_1.pdf?1707420823000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Research: Seizing Investment Opportunities in the Silver Economy', 'originalAuthor': '金晗,燕翔', 'originalContent': '投资要点：老龄化趋势下银发经济体量巨大2024年1月15日，国务院办公厅发布了关于发展银发经济增进老年人福祉的意见，《意见》指出要实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略，以老年群体需求为基础，大力发展银发经济，加快银发经济规模化、标准化、集群化、品牌化发展，满足老年群众多方面需求，妥善解决人口老龄化带来的社会问题，培育经济发展新动能，提高人民生活品质，增进老���人福祉，不断实现人民对美好生活的向往。银发经济是向老年人提供产品或服务，以及为老龄阶段做准备等一系列经济活动的总和，涉及面广、产业链长、业态多元、潜力巨大。具体来看，旅游度假与文体娱乐、老年消费与适老用品、医疗保健与康复护理以及养老保险与金融服务等四大领域的投资机会日渐凸显。银发经济彰显了巨大的投资空间和发展潜力，将带动相关产业发展，掀起新的市场热潮。银发经济的产业特征与时代意义银发经济产业特征体现在其服务的多样性和个性化需求上，随着社会老龄化程度的加深，银发经济呈现出强劲的增长势头和广阔的市场潜力。从时代意义上讲，银发经济不仅反映了人口结构变化的社会趋势，更是推动创新、促进产业升级和社会进步的重要力量。随着技术进步和消费观念的变化，银发经济促使企业和政府重新思考服务模式，通过技术创新和服务优化来满足老年人群体的精细化需求，从而提高老年人的生活质量，推动经济和社会的可持续发展。此外，银发经济的发展还带动了相关行业的创新和就业机会，对促进经济多元化发展具有积极作用。银发经济的主要投资机会华福证券旅游度假与文体娱乐：银发群体较青壮年群体而言空闲时间更多，可以灵活安排旅行及出游时间，有更强的出游意愿。我国老年旅游市场规模不断扩张，保持着较高增速水平。另外，在我国老年群体日渐庞大的同时，老龄网民人数也在不断增加，互联网的广泛普及拓展并重塑了银发群体的文体娱乐渠道，基于银发群体需求的一些互联网新模式蕴含着新的投资机遇。老年消费与适老用品：我国银发群体财富总量较大，老年人口具备巨大的消费潜力，有望打开消费市场的新局面。随着传统消费观念的转变，银发群体的消费需求向多元化、高品质、健康化、定制化、便捷性发展，逐渐实现生理需求、健康需求、情感需求、自我实现的满足。医疗保健与康复护理：老年人口规模的不断扩大的同时，大众对于健康保健意识的也不断加深。我国“十四五规划”和“2035年远景目标”均高度重视医疗卫生领域，倡导医疗康养和银发经济发展相结合，推进养老事业和相关产业协同发展。养老保险与金融服务：2023年10月底，中央金融工作会议进一步明确了养老金融的具体要求，为养老金制度、养老产业与金融服务融合等方面指明发展方向。目前我国第二、第三支柱占比较低，商业养老金在未来有望实现高增长，推动银发经济进一步走向成熟。风险提示宏观经济不及预期，地缘政治风险，生育率持续低迷，老龄化速度超预期。', 'content': 'Investment points: The silver economy is huge under the aging trend. On January 15, 2024, the General Office of the State Council issued opinions on developing the silver economy to improve the well-being of the elderly. The \"Opinions\" pointed out that it is necessary to implement a national strategy to actively respond to the aging of the population in order to Based on the needs of the elderly, vigorously develop the silver economy, accelerate the development of scale, standardization, clustering, and branding of the silver economy, meet the multi-faceted needs of the elderly, properly solve the social problems caused by the aging population, and cultivate new drivers of economic development. Improve people\\'s quality of life, enhance the well-being of the elderly, and continuously realize the people\\'s yearning for a better life. The silver economy is the sum of a series of economic activities such as providing products or services to the elderly and preparing for the aging stage. It involves a wide range of areas, a long industrial chain, diverse business formats, and huge potential. Specifically, investment opportunities in the four major areas of tourism, vacation and culture, sports and entertainment, elderly consumption and elderly products, medical care and rehabilitation care, and pension insurance and financial services are becoming increasingly prominent. The silver economy demonstrates huge investment space and development potential, which will drive the development of related industries and set off a new market boom. Industrial Characteristics and Significance of the Times of the Silver Economy The industrial characteristics of the silver economy are reflected in the diversity and personalized needs of its services. As society ages, the silver economy shows strong growth momentum and broad market potential. In the sense of the times, the silver economy not only reflects the social trend of changing population structure, but is also an important force in promoting innovation, industrial upgrading and social progress. With technological advancement and changes in consumption concepts, the silver economy prompts enterprises and governments to rethink service models and meet the refined needs of the elderly through technological innovation and service optimization, thereby improving the quality of life of the elderly and promoting economic and social development. sustainable development. In addition, the development of the silver economy has also driven innovation and employment opportunities in related industries, playing a positive role in promoting economic diversification. The main investment opportunities for the silver-haired economy are Huafu Securities Travel, Vacation, Culture, Sports and Entertainment: The silver-haired group has more free time than young adults, can flexibly arrange travel and travel time, and has a stronger willingness to travel. The scale of my country\\'s elderly tourism market continues to expand and maintain a high growth rate. In addition, while my country\\'s elderly population is growing larger, the number of elderly Internet users is also increasing. The widespread popularity of the Internet has expanded and reshaped the cultural, sports and entertainment channels for the elderly. Some new Internet models based on the needs of the elderly contain new investment opportunities. . Elderly consumption and age-friendly products: The total wealth of my country’s silver-haired group is relatively large, and the elderly population has huge consumption potential, which is expected to open up a new situation in the consumer market. With the change of traditional consumption concepts, the consumption needs of the silver-haired group are developing towards diversification, high quality, health, customization and convenience, gradually realizing the satisfaction of physiological needs, health needs, emotional needs and self-realization. Medical care and rehabilitation care: As the size of the elderly population continues to expand, the public’s awareness of health care is also deepening. my country\\'s \"14th Five-Year Plan\" and \"2035 Vision Goals\" both attach great importance to the medical and health field, advocate the integration of medical and health care with the development of the silver economy, and promote the coordinated development of elderly care and related industries. Pension insurance and financial services: At the end of October 2023, the Central Financial Work Conference further clarified the specific requirements for pension finance and pointed out the development direction for the pension system, the integration of the pension industry and financial services. At present, the proportion of the second and third pillars in our country is low. Commercial pensions are expected to achieve high growth in the future and promote the further maturity of the silver economy. Risks suggest that the macroeconomy is less than expected, geopolitical risks, the fertility rate continues to be sluggish, and the aging rate is faster than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('26957068-6c12-5a7c-8615-23f63c29aac4'), 'sentimentScore': 0.315779447555542, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '0LNQVEP7LNL6IM073INUP99A9FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:34 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '0LNQVEP7LNL6IM073INUP99A9FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7edac85f-6c8a-50fc-99eb-33334175305f'), 'title': 'High-tech Manufacturing Macro Weekly Report: Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index fell at the same rate as the previous time', 'author': 'Shao Xingyu, Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-08', 'encodeUrl': 'FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWAyMuNUe51Zpl2J722+ljI2U=', 'researcher': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000257974', '11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWAyMuNUe51Zpl2J722+ljI2U=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621136265_1.pdf?1707418347000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621136265_1.pdf?1707418347000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'High-tech Manufacturing Macro Weekly Report: Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index fell at the same rate as the previous time', 'originalAuthor': '邵兴宇,董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数降幅与前次持平。截至2024年2月3日当周，国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数A录得-0.2，与前次持平；国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数B为59，较前次下跌；扩散指数C为-18.51，较前次下跌。从分项看，本周丙烯晴价格较前次略微下跌，航空航天景气度下行；6-氨基青霉烷酸、中关村电���产品价格指数、动态随机存储器和六氟磷酸锂价格保持不变，医药、计算机、半导体、新能源行业景气度与前次持平。高技术产业跟踪方面：高技术制造业高频数据跟踪上，6-氨基青霉烷酸价格330元/千克，与上周持平；丙烯腈价格9250元/吨，较上周下跌250元/吨；动态随机存储器（DRAM）价格1.0780美元，与上周持平；晶圆（Wafer）价格最新一期报3.44美元/片，较前次上涨0.22美元/片；六氟磷酸锂价格6.65万元/吨，与上周持平；中关村电子产品价格指数:液晶显示器最新一期报91.04，与上周持平。总结来看，航空航天行业景气度下行，半导体、医药、新能源、计算机行业景气度保持不变。高技术制造业政策动向上，据人民邮电报2月2日消息，工业和信息化部、教育部、科学技术部等十二部门近日印发《工业互联网标识解析体系“贯通”行动计划（2024—2026年）》（以下简称《行动计划》），提出到2026年，我国建成自主可控的标识解析体系，在制造业及经济社会重点领域初步实现规模应用，对推动企业数字化转型、畅通产业链供应链、促进大中小企业和一二三产业融通发展的支撑作用不断增强。据悉，这是首份针对工业互联网标识解析体系出台的政策文件。高技术制造业前沿动态上，据经济日报消息，全球功率最高溶液型医用同位素堆——中核集团中国核动力研究设计院医用同位素试验堆在四川省乐山市夹江县正式开工建设。据悉，这是国内首座医用同位素专用生产堆，预计2027年建成投产。风险提示：高技术制造业发展和结构调整带来指标失灵；经济政策和产业政策干预；经济增速下滑。', 'content': 'Core point of view: Guosen\\'s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index fell at the same rate as the previous time. As of the week of February 3, 2024, Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index A recorded -0.2, the same as the previous time; Guosen’s weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index B was 59, down from the previous time; Diffusion index C was -18.51 , down from the previous time. In terms of items, the price of acrylonitrile fell slightly this week compared with the previous time, and the aerospace boom declined; the prices of 6-aminopenicillanic acid, Zhongguancun Electronic Products Price Index, dynamic random access memory and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged, and the prices of medicine, computers, The prosperity of the semiconductor and new energy industries was the same as last time. High-tech industry tracking: According to the high-frequency data tracking of high-tech manufacturing, the price of 6-aminopenicillanic acid is 330 yuan/kg, the same as last week; the price of acrylonitrile is 9,250 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week ; The price of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) was US$1.0780, the same as last week; the price of wafer (Wafer) was reported at US$3.44/piece in the latest issue, an increase of US$0.22/piece from the previous time; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 66,500 yuan/ton, which was the same as last week. The price index for Zhongguancun Electronic Products: LCD monitors was flat at 91.04 in the latest period, which was the same as last week. In summary, the prosperity of the aerospace industry is declining, while the prosperity of the semiconductor, pharmaceutical, new energy, and computer industries remains unchanged. Regarding high-tech manufacturing policy trends, according to People\\'s Post and Telecommunications News on February 2, twelve departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Education, and the Ministry of Science and Technology recently issued the \"Industrial Internet Identification Analysis System \"Connect\" Action Plan (2024- 2026)\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Action Plan\"), it is proposed that by 2026, my country will establish an independent and controllable logo analysis system and initially achieve large-scale application in manufacturing and key economic and social fields, which will be instrumental in promoting the digital transformation of enterprises and smoothing the industrial chain. The supporting role of the supply chain in promoting the integrated development of large, medium and small enterprises and primary, secondary and tertiary industries continues to increase. It is reported that this is the first policy document issued for the industrial Internet logo analysis system. On the frontier of high-tech manufacturing, according to the Economic Daily, the world\\'s most powerful solution-type medical isotope reactor, the China Nuclear Power Research and Design Institute\\'s medical isotope test reactor of CNNC, has officially started construction in Jiajiang County, Leshan City, Sichuan Province. It is reported that this is the first dedicated production reactor for medical isotopes in China and is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2027. Risk warning: The development and structural adjustment of high-tech manufacturing industry will lead to indicator failure; economic policy and industrial policy intervention; economic growth will decline.', 'authorid': UUID('326df97e-9b51-50f7-9a96-c9f92117a326'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9652742207981646, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '288BOIGTDVTIHQC5T20M3ND84RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:36 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '288BOIGTDVTIHQC5T20M3ND84RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8169253a-4609-5631-bd66-62b370d8fcaa'), 'title': 'CPI, PPI Comments (2024.1): Consumption during the Spring Festival is stable, and the main driving force of domestic demand still needs to be consolidated', 'author': 'Qin Tai', 'orgName': '华金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000134', 'orgSName': '华金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-08', 'encodeUrl': 'FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA1NE4fLb7oOEdVYULw8SB1Q=', 'researcher': '秦泰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000249937'], 'count': 11, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA1NE4fLb7oOEdVYULw8SB1Q=', 'site': 'Huajin Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621134135_1.pdf?1707414346000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621134135_1.pdf?1707414346000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'CPI, PPI Comments (2024.1): Consumption during the Spring Festival is stable, and the main driving force of domestic demand still needs to be consolidated', 'originalAuthor': '秦泰', 'originalContent': '投资要点1月受去年同期春节错位因素造成的鲜菜鲜果价格高基数影响，CPI同比大幅下行；核心CPI也打破连续三个月的稳定小幅下行。1月受到去年同期春节假日错位因素的影响，鲜菜鲜果价格出现了大幅下滑，加之猪肉价格未改下滑趋势，二者共同拖累CPI同比跌幅大幅扩大0.5个百分点至-0.8%的近十年来新低，低于我们此前的预期；核心CPI打破了连续三个月的持平水平，小幅下行0.2个百分点至0.4%，。国际原油价格有所反弹，但国内煤炭保供仍在持续进行，拉动1月PPI同比跌幅仅小幅收窄0.2个百分点至-2.5%，连续第二个月有所改善。食品供给充足叠加春节错位的高基数效应，食品CPI同比跌幅显著扩大。1月食品CPI环比0.4%，显著低于历史上春节位于2月年份的当月均值水平，显示食品供给总体相当充裕，近期并无因供给趋紧而导致食品大幅涨价的担忧。食品中波动较大、权重也较高的畜肉类、鲜菜、鲜果1月环比分别为-0.5%、3.8%、-0.5%，均比较明显地低于2016年以来春节位于2月的年份中的1月环比均值。一方面显示本轮猪周期供大于求的格局可能持续更久，另一方面显示蔬果供应保障能力稳定。核心CPI受春节错位影响短暂下行，非食品环比基本符合非春节1月季节性特征，显示居民商品和服务消费整体平稳，未出现进一步下探，也尚未显现明显上行动能。由于春节错位的高基数效应，核心CPI同比打破连续三个月持平状态，小幅下行0.2个百分点至0.4%，有望在2月之后随春节因素完全体现出来而再度小幅改善。从环比情况来看，代表能源价格的交通工具用燃料项1月环比小幅下跌1%，近期油价小幅回升，2月该分项环比有望企稳。扣除食品和能源的核心CPI中，扣除交通工具用燃料的工业消费品、房租和其他服务环比均基本符合季节性涨幅特征。消费品和服务CPI同比增速分别下行0.6、0.5个百分点至-1.7%、0.5%，也主要受春节错位效应的影响，总体消费需求年初平稳开局，仍需政策和财富效应预期蓄力。国际原油价格有所反弹，但国内煤炭保供仍在持续进行，PPI同比跌幅仅小幅收窄。1月国际原油价格出现一轮一定幅度的上涨，PPI石油和天然气开采环比跌幅收窄至-0.8%，油价拉动PPI同比上行0.1个百分点；考虑到国内的煤炭保供持续进行，在全国大范围寒潮导致电力和供暖需求激增的背景下，煤炭开采及洗选业PPI环比仅小幅上行0.1个百分点，价格保持了相当平稳的状态，1月PPI同比跌幅小幅收窄0.2个百分点至-2.5%。我们预计在房价见底、房地产市场预期得到稳定的大背景下，国内的消费和投资内需都有改善倾向，在此基础上，通过个税减税等二次收入分配政策对居民的收入预期进行改善，2024年CPI、PPI有望有所回升。近期广州、苏州、上海、深圳相继宣布不同程度的房地产限购政策放松，房地��市场本轮结构性放松再度有所加码，显示政策层面希望促进各地房价水平加快企稳。当前房价的连续调整、财富效应收缩已经成为导致中等收入人群消费意愿不足的重要原因之一。如果在春节假期后、两会前见到各地房价调整到位底部趋稳、房地产市场“量缩价稳”的良好态势，则我们将明确预期今年两会采取更大力度的赤字率扩张、通过个税减税等二次收入分配政策改善中等收入人群收入预期，以形成持续的消费动能，夯实内需主动力。风险提示：消费内需复苏不及预期风险。', 'content': 'Investment Points In January, affected by the high base of fresh vegetable and fruit prices caused by the Spring Festival dislocation in the same period last year, the CPI fell sharply year-on-year; the core CPI also broke the three consecutive months of stable and slight decline. In January, affected by the misalignment of the Spring Festival holiday in the same period last year, the prices of fresh vegetables and fruits fell sharply. In addition, the price of pork did not change the downward trend. Together, the two dragged down the year-on-year CPI decline by 0.5 percentage points to -0.8%, a new low in the past decade. , lower than our previous expectations; core CPI broke the flat level for three consecutive months, falling slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 0.4%. International crude oil prices have rebounded, but domestic coal supply continues to be guaranteed, causing the year-on-year decline in PPI in January to narrow only slightly by 0.2 percentage points to -2.5%, improving for the second consecutive month. Sufficient food supply combined with the high base effect of the Spring Festival dislocation caused the year-on-year decline in food CPI to expand significantly. The food CPI in January was 0.4% month-on-month, significantly lower than the historical average for the month when the Spring Festival falls in February. This shows that the food supply is generally quite abundant, and there are no concerns about a sharp increase in food prices due to tight supply in the near future. Among foods, livestock meat, fresh vegetables, and fresh fruits, which are more volatile and have higher weights, were -0.5%, 3.8%, and -0.5% month-on-month respectively in January, which are significantly lower than those in the years since 2016 when the Spring Festival is in February. The January month-on-month average. On the one hand, it shows that the oversupply pattern in this pig cycle may last longer, and on the other hand, it shows that the supply of fruits and vegetables is stable. The core CPI fell temporarily due to the Spring Festival dislocation, and the non-food month-on-month period basically conformed to the seasonal characteristics of non-Spring Festival January, showing that residents\\' consumption of goods and services was generally stable, with no further decline, and no obvious upward momentum. Due to the high base effect of the Spring Festival dislocation, the core CPI broke the three consecutive months of flatness year-on-year, falling slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 0.4%. It is expected to improve slightly again after February as the Spring Festival factors are fully reflected. Judging from the month-on-month situation, the transportation fuel item, which represents energy prices, fell slightly by 1% month-on-month in January. Oil prices have rebounded slightly recently, and this sub-item is expected to stabilize month-on-month in February. In the core CPI excluding food and energy, industrial consumer goods, rent and other services excluding transportation fuel are basically in line with the seasonal increase characteristics month-on-month. The year-on-year growth rates of CPI for consumer goods and services dropped by 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points respectively to -1.7% and 0.5%. This was also mainly affected by the dislocation effect of the Spring Festival. Overall consumer demand has started steadily at the beginning of the year, but policies and wealth effect expectations are still needed to accumulate momentum. International crude oil prices have rebounded, but domestic coal supply continues to be guaranteed, and the year-on-year decline in PPI has only narrowed slightly. In January, international crude oil prices saw a round of increases. The month-on-month decline in PPI oil and natural gas production narrowed to -0.8%. Oil prices drove the PPI up by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. Considering that the domestic coal supply continues to be guaranteed, on a large scale across the country Against the background of the surge in demand for electricity and heating caused by the cold wave, the PPI of the coal mining and washing industry only rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, and prices remained quite stable. The year-on-year PPI decline in January narrowed slightly by 0.2 percentage points to -2.5%. We predict that with house prices bottoming out and the real estate market expected to be stabilized, domestic consumption and investment demand will tend to improve. On this basis, residents’ income expectations will be improved through secondary income distribution policies such as personal tax cuts. Improvement, CPI and PPI are expected to rebound in 2024. Recently, Guangzhou, Suzhou, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have successively announced varying degrees of relaxation of real estate purchase restriction policies. This round of structural relaxation of the real estate market has once again increased, indicating that the policy level hopes to accelerate the stabilization of housing prices in various regions. The current continuous adjustment of housing prices and the shrinking wealth effect have become one of the important reasons for the lack of willingness to consume among middle-income people. If we see that after the Spring Festival holiday and before the Two Sessions, we see that housing prices in various places have been adjusted to the bottom and stabilized, and that the real estate market has \"reduced volume and stabilized prices\", we will clearly expect that this year\\'s Two Sessions will adopt greater efforts to expand the deficit ratio and reduce personal income tax through individual tax cuts. Secondary income distribution policies such as taxes will improve the income expectations of middle-income people to create sustained consumption momentum and consolidate the main driving force of domestic demand. Risk warning: There is a risk that the recovery of domestic consumer demand will not be as good as expected.', 'authorid': UUID('ae91a726-1e5a-5a58-8cc8-85a64f6c36b2'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9544814378023148, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8LPUL5E5PE1SUEMNJ0L3SLRFI3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:39 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8LPUL5E5PE1SUEMNJ0L3SLRFI3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6b1e6bdd-1536-52ff-8656-cc9cd1cef395'), 'title': 'The \"Interim Regulations on the Management of Carbon Emissions Trading\" were released to clarify the management requirements for relevant trading activities.', 'author': 'Yang Bin', 'orgName': '海通国际证券集团有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001968', 'orgSName': '海通国际', 'publishDate': '2024-02-08', 'encodeUrl': 'FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA58T5/KO6yTuNpPOQDT1bqw=', 'researcher': '杨斌', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000418831'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA58T5/KO6yTuNpPOQDT1bqw=', 'site': 'Haitong International Securities Group Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '海通国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621132227_1.pdf?1707412298000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621132227_1.pdf?1707412298000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The \"Interim Regulations on the Management of Carbon Emissions Trading\" were released to clarify the management requirements for relevant trading activities.', 'originalAuthor': '杨斌', 'originalContent': '热点速评事件：2月4日，《碳排放权交易管理暂行条例》（下称《条例》）经国务院第23次常务会议通过，自2024年5月1日起施行。《碳排放权交易管理暂行条例》的发布为我国实现碳达峰碳中和目标提供有力的制度保障。2月4日，《碳排放权交易管理暂行条例》（下称《条例》）经国务院第23次常务会议通过，自2024年5月1日起施行。这标志着我国碳中和目标下，以专项行政法规形式确立和完善碳排放权交易制度，确保碳排放权交易活动有法可依。自2021年7月全国碳排放权交易市场正式上线交易以来，我国碳排放权交易在制度体系、技术规范、基础设施建设、能力建设等方面取得积极进展。《条例》涉及六个主要方面的多项细则，进一步明确监督管理体制。《条例》从注册登记机构和交易机构的法律地位和职责；碳排放权交易覆盖范围以及交易产品、交易主体和交易方式；重点排放单位确定；碳排放配额分配；排放报告编制与核查；碳排放配额清缴和市场交易等六个方面构建了碳排放权交易管理的基本制度框架。《条例》明确生态环境主管部门负责碳排放权交易及相关活动的监督管理工作，包括建立全国碳排放权交易市场管理平台，加强对碳排放权交易及相关活动的全过程监管，并与有关部门实现信息共享；地方人民政府生态环境主管部门负责本行政区域内碳排放权交易及相关活动的监督管理工作，其他有关部门按照职责分工，负责本行政区域内碳排放权交易及相关活动的有关监督管理工作，形成由上至下的监管体制。我国碳排放权交易规模快速增长，CCER重启进一步完善碳排放权交易体制。上��环境能源交易所数据显示，2023年全国碳排放权交易市场共运行242个交易日，碳排放配额年度成交量2.12亿吨，同比增长316.48%，年度成交额144.44亿元，同比增长488.07%，日均成交量87.58万吨。《条例》的颁布有利于碳排放市场规范化。2024年1月全国温室气体自愿减排交易（CCER）市场启动，与碳排放权交易市场形成合力，完善我国碳排放市场，推动我国实现碳排放目标。风险提示：1、政策执行不及预期；2、国内外政策突发重大变化；3，碳中和推进不及预期', 'content': 'Hot quick review event: On February 4, the \"Interim Regulations on the Management of Carbon Emissions Trading\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Regulations\") were passed by the 23rd executive meeting of the State Council and will come into effect on May 1, 2024. The promulgation of the \"Interim Regulations on Carbon Emissions Trading Management\" provides a strong institutional guarantee for my country to achieve its carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. On February 4, the \"Interim Regulations on the Management of Carbon Emissions Trading\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Regulations\") were passed by the 23rd executive meeting of the State Council and will come into effect on May 1, 2024. This marks the establishment and improvement of the carbon emissions trading system in the form of special administrative regulations under my country\\'s carbon neutrality goal to ensure that carbon emissions trading activities are legally based. Since the national carbon emissions trading market was officially launched for trading in July 2021, my country\\'s carbon emissions trading has made positive progress in institutional systems, technical specifications, infrastructure construction, and capacity building. The \"Regulations\" involve a number of detailed rules in six main aspects, further clarifying the supervision and management system. The \"Regulations\" cover the legal status and responsibilities of registration institutions and trading institutions; the coverage of carbon emissions trading, trading products, trading entities and trading methods; the determination of key emission units; the allocation of carbon emission quotas; the preparation and verification of emission reports; carbon emissions Six aspects, including quota settlement and market transactions, constitute the basic institutional framework for carbon emissions trading management. The \"Regulations\" clarify that the ecological and environmental authorities are responsible for the supervision and management of carbon emissions trading and related activities, including establishing a national carbon emissions trading market management platform, strengthening the supervision of the entire process of carbon emissions trading and related activities, and cooperating with relevant departments Realize information sharing; the local people\\'s government\\'s ecological environment department is responsible for the supervision and management of carbon emissions trading and related activities within its own administrative area. Other relevant departments, according to the division of responsibilities, are responsible for the relevant supervision of carbon emissions trading and related activities within their own administrative area. Management work, forming a top-down supervision system. The scale of my country\\'s carbon emissions trading has grown rapidly, and CCER has restarted to further improve the carbon emissions trading system. Data from the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange shows that the national carbon emissions trading market will operate for a total of 242 trading days in 2023. The annual transaction volume of carbon emission quotas is 212 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 316.48%, and the annual transaction volume is 14.444 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 488.07%. The average daily trading volume is 875,800 tons. The promulgation of the Regulations is conducive to the standardization of the carbon emission market. In January 2024, the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading (CCER) market was launched, forming a joint force with the carbon emission rights trading market to improve our country\\'s carbon emissions market and promote our country\\'s carbon emission goals. Risk warning: 1. Policy implementation falls short of expectations; 2. Sudden major changes in domestic and foreign policies; 3. Carbon neutrality progress falls short of expectations', 'authorid': UUID('752b5c87-819b-5bfb-91e4-998b3b6f8734'), 'sentimentScore': 0.4589144438505173, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'BL9I6H4SO9GM5TEM80V44EN3ARVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:41 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'BL9I6H4SO9GM5TEM80V44EN3ARVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('96fb512e-72bb-5de1-93b4-7aeee37da411'), 'title': 'Macro·Weekly Report: Domestic PMI has recovered slightly, and the Federal Reserve has extinguished expectations of an interest rate cut in March.', 'author': 'Zheng Jianxin', 'orgName': '国贸期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80004615', 'orgSName': '国贸期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-08', 'encodeUrl': 'FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA8q1VDQbw/8GjOyHaPgHPJ0=', 'researcher': '郑建鑫', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245638'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA8q1VDQbw/8GjOyHaPgHPJ0=', 'site': 'Guomao Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国贸期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621128188_1.pdf?1707405627000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621128188_1.pdf?1707405627000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro·Weekly Report: Domestic PMI has recovered slightly, and the Federal Reserve has extinguished expectations of an interest rate cut in March.', 'originalAuthor': '郑建鑫', 'originalContent': '观点展望后市：节前市场情绪或偏谨慎。1）海外方面，在劳动力市场保持韧性、薪资同比增速难以下行的情况下，通胀水平的回落基础并不稳固，美联储可能会更加谨慎，或不会快速降息，这意味着短期将修正市场与美联储之间的预期差，从而带来资本市场的波动。2）国内方面，1月PMI有所回暖，但仍处于荣枯线下方，且分项指标显示，当前我国经济仍处于供给扩张、需求下滑、价格回落的格局之中，有效扩大需求的政策有待进一步发力。3）红海局势有所降温，但并未得到彻底的解决仍需重点关注美国、以色列、卡塔尔、哈马斯四方会谈的进展情况。核心逻辑（1）本周大宗商品指数大幅回落，一是，国内PMI维持在荣枯线下方，弱现实再度压制市场风险偏好：二是，美联储1月FOMC会议基本指断了3月降息的乐观预期，美债利率和美元指数反弹。（2）国内1月PMI小幅回暖。1）1月PMI指数较前月小幅回暖，但结构上的矛盾依旧突出，主要表现为生产强、需求弱、物价低的特征。往后看，尽管1月稳增长政策继续加码出台，但春节效应对“稳增长”落地节奏产生抚动，2月份即将迎来数据的空窗期，经济“开门红”的成色有待观察。与此同时，我们通过高频数据仍然可以看到，开年以来新房汽车销售双双偏弱，居民部门的韧性面临挑战。现阶段有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱等困难依然存在，预计后续宏观政策仍将保持积极。2）2023年全国般公共预算收入同比增长6.4%：全国一般公共预算支出同比增长5.4%，预计2024年地方化解债务风险、中央加杠杆的趋势有望延续。预计2024年预算赤字率有望继续突破3%，特别国债也有继续推出的可能性，新增地方政府专项债限额或增加至4万亿元左右。（3）非农大超预期，美联储按兵不动。1）美国1月新增非农就业35.3万人，大幅超过市场预期，劳动参与率与失业率维持不变，表明美国劳动力市场具有较强韧性，或进一步推退美联储实质性降息的时间节点，预计市场短期内难以快速释放宽松预期。2）1月FOMC会议宜布维持利率不变符合市场预期，同时确认了三件事：一是，明确了本轮加息周期的结束：二是，降息已经提上了美联储的日程，但何时降息将取决于未来几个月通胀、就业和经济数的表现情况；三是，降息不会很快到来，会后鲍威尔明确表态“3月降息可能性不大”。', 'content': 'Viewpoint: Looking forward to the market outlook: Market sentiment may be cautious before the holiday. 1) Overseas, while the labor market remains resilient and the year-on-year wage growth is difficult to decline, the basis for the fall in inflation is not solid. The Federal Reserve may be more cautious or may not cut interest rates quickly, which means that the market will be corrected in the short term. The difference in expectations between the Federal Reserve and the US Federal Reserve has caused fluctuations in the capital market. 2) Domestically, the PMI has picked up in January, but is still below the boom-bust line, and sub-indicators show that my country’s economy is still in a pattern of supply expansion, demand decline, and price fall. Policies to effectively expand demand need to be implemented. Make further efforts. 3) The situation in the Red Sea has cooled down, but it has not been completely resolved. We still need to focus on the progress of the four-party talks between the United States, Israel, Qatar, and Hamas. Core logic (1) The commodity index fell sharply this week. First, the domestic PMI remained below the boom-bust line, and the weak reality once again suppressed market risk appetite. Second, the Federal Reserve\\'s January FOMC meeting basically ended optimism about interest rate cuts in March. As expected, U.S. bond interest rates and the U.S. dollar index rebounded. (2) Domestic PMI recovered slightly in January. 1) The PMI index in January recovered slightly from the previous month, but structural contradictions are still prominent, mainly characterized by strong production, weak demand, and low prices. Looking forward, although policies to stabilize growth continued to be introduced in January, the Spring Festival effect has affected the pace of \"steady growth\" implementation. February is about to usher in a data window period, and the quality of the economy\\'s \"good start\" remains to be seen. At the same time, we can still see from high-frequency data that sales of new homes and cars have been weak since the beginning of the year, and the resilience of the residential sector is facing challenges. At this stage, difficulties such as insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, and weak social expectations still exist. It is expected that subsequent macro policies will remain positive. 2) National general public budget revenue will increase by 6.4% year-on-year in 2023: National general public budget expenditure will increase by 5.4% year-on-year. It is expected that the trend of local governments resolving debt risks and the central government increasing leverage is expected to continue in 2024. It is expected that the budget deficit rate will continue to exceed 3% in 2024, and special government bonds are also likely to continue to be introduced. The limit of new local government special debt may be increased to about 4 trillion yuan. (3) The non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations and the Fed stayed on hold. 1) The United States added 353,000 non-farm jobs in January, significantly exceeding market expectations. The labor participation rate and unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating that the U.S. labor market is highly resilient and may further push back the time point for the Federal Reserve to substantially cut interest rates. It is expected that the market will be difficult to quickly release loosening expectations in the short term. 2) The January FOMC meeting is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, which is in line with market expectations. It also confirms three things: First, it clarifies the end of this round of interest rate hikes; second, interest rate cuts have been put on the Fed’s agenda, but why? The timing of an interest rate cut will depend on the performance of inflation, employment and economic data in the coming months; third, an interest rate cut will not come soon. After the meeting, Powell made it clear that \"an interest rate cut in March is unlikely.\"', 'authorid': UUID('a9121ac9-9180-5a0d-b04f-77adb31c9370'), 'sentimentScore': -0.916843743994832, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'RRH2UPKPMOP83NHTS41HRUOEVVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:44 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'RRH2UPKPMOP83NHTS41HRUOEVVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('21d866d3-0cbe-50e7-9326-77155885916c'), 'title': 'Interpretation of fiscal data in December: Tax revenue has improved significantly, and infrastructure spending promotes continued fiscal strength', 'author': 'Shen Xiayi, Chen Guowen', 'orgName': '联储证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80036123', 'orgSName': '联储证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-08', 'encodeUrl': 'FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA5eRCkzA2gfdbSxWH5W66H0=', 'researcher': '沈夏宜,陈国文', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000444136', '11000446851'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA5eRCkzA2gfdbSxWH5W66H0=', 'site': 'Fed Securities, Inc.', 'originalSite': '联储证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621128021_1.pdf?1707405946000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621128021_1.pdf?1707405946000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Interpretation of fiscal data in December: Tax revenue has improved significantly, and infrastructure spending promotes continued fiscal strength', 'originalAuthor': '沈夏宜,陈国文', 'originalContent': '投资要点：财政收入同比复合增速扩大。1至12月一般公共预算收入同比增长6.4%。剔除基数因素后，一般公共预算收入两年复合增速为3.46%，较前值持续回升。一般公共预算收入完成进度为99.76%，基本完成收入目标值。一般公共预算收入增速回升的主要原因在于经济持续修复。税收收入同比增速明显，印证经济基本面继续修复。1至12月税收收入两年复合增速为2.4%，增速较前值扩大。国内增值税两年复合增速为4.47%，较前值有所提升；企业所得税累计同比增速为-5.9%，连续落入负增区间，印证生产端修复较慢；国内消费税两年复合增速为7.7%，指向消费继续修复；个人所得税两年复合增速为2.7%，增幅收窄。土地增值税与契税复合增速持续落入负增区间，指向土地拍卖和房地产市场持续不景气；出口退税和关税复合增速为负，与出口低迷相印证。中央和地方财政支出均增速加快，基建类支出增幅较大。1至12月一般公共预算支出同比增速为5.4%，增幅继续提高。一般公共预算支出完成进度为99.8%，基本完成支出目标值。一般公共预算赤字使用率为99.9%，赤字使用率基本完成。中央支出增速达到7.4%，地方支出增幅达到5.1%，中央和地方支出增幅较前值均扩大。基建类支出增幅边际改善明显，说明财政政策持续积极发力。土地出让金收入持续为负，政府性基金收支负增，专项债完成进度较快。1至12月土地出让金收入累计同比增速为-8.4%，降幅收窄，但连续落入负增区间，印证房地产处于低迷期，拖累政府性基金收支，分别录得-13.2%和-9.2%。12月地方政府新增专项债完成进度为109%，完成进度较快。万亿国债资金已基本落实到具体项目，助力财政政策继续发力。12月国家发改委相关部门披露，前两批项目共计落实国债资金超8000亿元，预计会继续拉动地方财政支出进度。同时，中央政府或将会继续加杠杆，带动地方财政发力；地方政府或将会继续利用再融资债券置换存量债务来降低偿债压力。风险提示：基本面修复偏离预期，宏观政策超预期。', 'content': 'Investment points: fiscal revenue compound growth rate expanded year-on-year. General public budget revenue from January to December increased by 6.4% year-on-year. After excluding base factors, the two-year compound growth rate of general public budget revenue was 3.46%, continuing to rebound from the previous value. The completion progress of general public budget revenue is 99.76%, basically achieving the revenue target. The main reason for the rebound in general public budget revenue growth is the continued recovery of the economy. Tax revenue increased significantly year-on-year, confirming that economic fundamentals continue to recover. The two-year compound growth rate of tax revenue from January to December was 2.4%, and the growth rate expanded from the previous value. The two-year compound growth rate of domestic value-added tax was 4.47%, which was higher than the previous value; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of corporate income tax was -5.9%, continuously falling into the negative growth range, confirming that the recovery of the production end is slow; the two-year compound growth rate of domestic consumption tax The growth rate was 7.7%, pointing to continued recovery in consumption; the two-year compound growth rate of personal income tax was 2.7%, with the growth rate narrowing. The compound growth rate of land value-added tax and deed tax continues to fall into the negative growth range, pointing to the continued slump in land auctions and real estate markets; the compound growth rate of export tax rebates and tariffs is negative, corroborating the sluggish exports. The growth rate of central and local fiscal expenditures has accelerated, and infrastructure expenditure has increased significantly. The year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditures from January to December was 5.4%, and the growth rate continued to increase. The completion progress of general public budget expenditure is 99.8%, basically completing the expenditure target. The general public budget deficit utilization rate is 99.9%, and the deficit utilization rate is basically completed. The growth rate of central expenditure reached 7.4%, and the growth rate of local expenditure reached 5.1%. The growth rate of central and local expenditures both expanded compared with the previous value. The marginal improvement in the growth rate of infrastructure expenditure has been obvious, indicating that fiscal policy continues to be active. Land transfer fee income continues to be negative, government fund revenue and expenditures are increasing, and special bonds are being completed at a rapid pace. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of land transfer fee income from January to December was -8.4%, the decline narrowed, but it continued to fall into the negative growth range, confirming that real estate is in a downturn, dragging down government fund revenue and expenditure, recording -13.2% and - respectively. 9.2%. In December, the completion progress of new special bonds issued by local governments was 109%, which is a relatively fast progress. Trillions of national debt funds have been basically implemented into specific projects, helping the fiscal policy to continue to work. In December, relevant departments of the National Development and Reform Commission disclosed that the first two batches of projects totaled more than 800 billion yuan in government bond funds, which is expected to continue to boost local fiscal expenditures. At the same time, the central government may continue to increase leverage to drive local fiscal strength; local governments may continue to use refinancing bonds to replace existing debt to reduce debt repayment pressure. Risk warning: Fundamental recovery deviates from expectations, and macro policies exceed expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('20de0085-8a7b-52a4-831e-0f4fdc3e344c'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9349660240113735, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '0M48G79NAEH8QCJ93LV37J2SD3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:47 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '0M48G79NAEH8QCJ93LV37J2SD3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2b37b719-ddc8-5b22-9bee-b89302e3b3d3'), 'title': 'macroeconomic review', 'author': 'Li Qian', 'orgName': '第一上海证券有限公司', 'orgCode': '80054871', 'orgSName': '第一上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-08', 'encodeUrl': 'FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWAwa8Q4kOJWE7q7gYMRHR+n4=', 'researcher': '李倩', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000235832'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWAwa8Q4kOJWE7q7gYMRHR+n4=', 'site': 'First Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '第一上海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621127951_1.pdf?1707405833000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621127951_1.pdf?1707405833000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'macroeconomic review', 'originalAuthor': '李倩', 'originalContent': '【宏观经济评论】第一上海——美股宏观策略周报宏观数据上周公布了一个重磅数据，1月份的新增非农就业35.3万人，大幅高于预期的18万人；失业率维持3.7%，低于预期的3.8%。平均时薪环比大幅反弹0.6%。市场对于这些数据是不太喜欢的，因为会担心经济过热。但是也要注意几点其他的数据：第一是在新增非农就业大幅增长并持续反弹的情况下，ADP就业放缓，家庭调查口径的新增就业持续向下；第二个是全职就业者明显下降，兼职就业在大幅增加；第三是美国本土出生的就业者在减少，可能是因为非法移民的涌入。因此我们对这一系列就业相关的数据也不用过分紧张。利率在工作数据出来之后，美国美债收益率有一个大幅上升，市场对于降息的预期明显降温，现在认为市场预期3月份降息的概率20%，但在5月降息的概率为90%左右，全年大概降息125个基点。上周日公布了美股联储主席鲍威尔接受CBS采访的内容，有几个要点：第一是鲍威尔认为经济已经软着陆，第二不会等通胀率到2%才降息，但是会等到对通胀下降到2%有更大信心的时候才降息。鲍威尔也提及了一些对于其他事件的看法，比如认为中国的经济放缓不会大幅影响美国的经济，但对美国联邦政府的财政赤字表示很大担忧，并且重申联储不会受政治压力而改变降息的决定。同时鲍威尔也担心会有些银行关闭或者合并，甚至不再存在，但是这个程度不至于达到2008年危机的地步。策略过去1个多月，美股涨幅很大，从12月到1月指数都有大约20%的涨幅，有一些资金据说已经开始流出股市。迄今为止已公布的公司的业绩都不算太差，但整体也没有特别大幅度的超预期。加之现在降息的预期放缓，因此在2月份指数有个小幅度调整的可能性还是很大的，从历史上看也是这样。但是调整幅度不会太大，毕竟今年的整体环境还是对股票市场有利，可能调整幅度在5%以内。个股上周大部分科技股龙头都公布了自己的业绩，整体上都不错。微软全方面的超预期，尤其在云计算业务这方面是非常靓丽的，AI也的确是对他们的云业务贡献了很大增幅。亚马逊和谷歌则是喜忧参半，主要是因为谷歌的非核心的视频广告业务有所不达预期。META这次是交出了靓丽的答卷，营业利润率和业绩指引都大幅超预期，最重要的是宣布了股票回购和首次分红。但市场也迅速调整了对它的估值，现在看已经是不便宜了，动态PE达到了30。META和英伟达给我们的教训是，不要以为大企业，大市值的公司，就不会有迅速的大幅度的上涨，谁说大象不能起舞。AMD对一季报的的指引不够好，主要是因为游戏业务还有FPGA之类的在持续收缩。MI300的营收公司也上调了指引，但也还是给的比较谨慎，距离市场上乐观的预期还是有很大的差距，所以股价并没有出现大幅上涨。特斯拉最近遇到一些麻烦，主要因为马斯克的股权激励计划被法庭挑���，马斯克也不含糊，立刻提出要把公司注册地迁移到德克萨斯州。但我们认为这个事情并不会这么简单结束，因为机构投资人并不象散户那样有粉丝情结，他们可能更多地从专业和理性的角度，出于对公司治理的担忧从而可能会投反对票。这就是我们猜测特斯拉股价最近有调整的原因。苹果业绩也算是中规中矩，唯一的弱点是在中国区的表现出现了负增长，主要原因来自于去年下半年华为发布了新机，抢占了苹果在高端机的市场份额。这个事情根据我们的零星的了解，一些体制内员工被要求停用苹果机。我们认为这些事情长期看并不是大事，因为有其他新兴市场会填补空白，比如印度。上周VisionPro正式开始交货，市面上第一批VisionPro的试用群体开始广泛在公共场合展示，也有视频在公共平台上发布，我们对他们的创意感到欣慰，也希望VisionPro能够超出我们的预期，成为苹果下一个增长曲线。我们对苹果今年的预期并不像郭明錤这样悲观。他引用供应链的数据认为苹果会把iPhone的整体销量将下调15%。我们认为苹果一方面还有一些存货，它的ASP也在一定程度上能够弥补销量的下滑。苹果已经停止了连续4个季度的营收下降，开始有了个位数的增长，今年我们对苹果并不悲观。', 'content': \"[Macroeconomic Commentary] First Shanghai - U.S. stock macro strategy weekly macro data released a blockbuster data last week. New non-farm employment in January was 353,000, significantly higher than the expected 180,000; the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 %, lower than the expected 3.8%. Average hourly earnings rebounded sharply by 0.6% month-on-month. The market does not like these data because it is worried about the economy overheating. But we should also pay attention to several other data: the first is that while new non-farm employment has increased significantly and continues to rebound, ADP employment has slowed down, and new employment based on household surveys has continued to decline; the second is full-time employment The number of employed persons has dropped significantly, while part-time employment has increased significantly; third, the number of employed persons born in the United States has decreased, possibly due to the influx of illegal immigrants. Therefore, we do not need to be overly nervous about this series of employment-related data. After the working data on interest rates came out, U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply, and the market's expectations for an interest rate cut significantly cooled down. It is now believed that the market expects a 20% chance of an interest rate cut in March, but the probability of an interest rate cut in May is about 90%. The rate will be cut by approximately 125 basis points this year. Last Sunday, the content of US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's interview with CBS was released. There are several key points: first, Powell believes that the economy has reached a soft landing. Second, he will not wait for the inflation rate to reach 2% before cutting interest rates, but will wait until the inflation rate drops to 2%. 2% will only cut interest rates when they have greater confidence. Powell also mentioned some views on other events, such as believing that China's economic slowdown will not significantly affect the U.S. economy, but expressed great concern about the U.S. federal government's fiscal deficit and reiterated that the Federal Reserve will not change due to political pressure. decision to cut interest rates. At the same time, Powell is also worried that some banks will close or merge, or even cease to exist, but this will not reach the level of the 2008 crisis. Strategy Over the past month or so, U.S. stocks have risen significantly. From December to January, the index rose by about 20%. Some funds are said to have begun to flow out of the stock market. The results of the companies announced so far are not too bad, but overall they have not exceeded expectations by a large margin. In addition, expectations of interest rate cuts are now slowing down, so there is still a high possibility of a small adjustment in the index in February, which is also the case historically. However, the adjustment will not be too large. After all, the overall environment this year is still favorable to the stock market, and the adjustment may be within 5%. Individual stocks Most of the leading technology stocks announced their results last week, and overall they were good. Microsoft has exceeded expectations in all aspects, especially in the cloud computing business. AI has indeed contributed a lot to their cloud business. Amazon and Google had mixed results, mainly because Google's non-core video advertising business fell short of expectations. META delivered a brilliant answer this time, with operating profit margins and performance guidance significantly exceeding expectations. Most importantly, it announced stock buybacks and its first dividend. But the market also quickly adjusted its valuation. Now it is no longer cheap, with a dynamic PE of 30. The lesson META and NVIDIA have taught us is that we should not think that large companies and companies with large market capitalization will not have rapid and substantial rises. Who says elephants cannot dance. AMD's guidance for the first quarter report is not good enough, mainly because the gaming business and FPGA continue to shrink. MI300's revenue company also raised its guidance, but it was still relatively cautious. It was still far from the market's optimistic expectations, so the stock price did not rise significantly. Tesla has encountered some troubles recently, mainly because Musk's equity incentive plan was challenged in court. Musk was also unambiguous and immediately proposed to move the company's registration place to Texas. But we think this matter will not end so simply, because institutional investors do not have the same fan complex as retail investors. They may vote against it out of concerns about corporate governance from a more professional and rational perspective. . This is why we speculate that Tesla's stock price has corrected recently. Apple's performance can be considered quite satisfactory. Its only weakness is the negative growth in its performance in China. The main reason is that Huawei released new phones in the second half of last year and seized Apple's market share in high-end phones. According to our fragmentary understanding of this matter, some employees within the system have been asked to stop using Apple computers. We don't think these things are a big deal in the long term because there are other emerging markets that will fill the gap, such as India. Last week VisionPro officially started delivery. The first batch of VisionPro trial groups on the market began to be widely displayed in public places, and videos were also released on public platforms. We are pleased with their creativity and hope that VisionPro can exceed our expectations and become a Apple's next growth curve. Our expectations for Apple this year are not as pessimistic as Ming-Chi Kuo's. Citing supply chain data, he believes Apple will reduce overall iPhone sales by 15%. We believe that Apple still has some inventory, and its ASP can also make up for the decline in sales to a certain extent. Apple has stopped four consecutive quarters of revenue decline and has begun to see single-digit growth. We are not pessimistic about Apple this year.\", 'authorid': UUID('65b3a723-6567-5c2c-9874-a85c5d112b4f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8988393228501081, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '8B0I7BRKUVFGKTQS48F1QAARINVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:50 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '8B0I7BRKUVFGKTQS48F1QAARINVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7b3ae350-c0e3-560b-a946-8d09c8b22e70'), 'title': 'Central Bank Operation Daily', 'author': 'Li Mingyu', 'orgName': '新湖期货股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80030099', 'orgSName': '新湖期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-08', 'encodeUrl': 'FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA0thyTA9PoEsYYd9xSPbrAs=', 'researcher': '李明玉', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197321'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA0thyTA9PoEsYYd9xSPbrAs=', 'site': 'Xinhu Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '新湖期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621127055_1.pdf?1707392100000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621127055_1.pdf?1707392100000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Central Bank Operation Daily', 'originalAuthor': '李明玉', 'originalContent': '公开市场操作：2月8日中国央行公开市场今日进行900亿元7天期逆回购操作，利率持平1.8%；进行2550亿元14元期逆回购操作，利率1.95%，与此前持平。因今日有430亿元7天期逆回购到期，当日实现净投放3020亿元。MLF操作：今日央行无MLF投放与操作，中标利率为2.50%，与此前一致PSL接作：今日央行无PSL投放与操作。TMLF：今日无TMLF到期与操作、国库定存操作：今日无国库定存到期及操作。', 'content': \"Open market operations: On February 8, the People's Bank of China's open market conducted a 90 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation today, with an interest rate unchanged at 1.8%; it conducted a 255 billion yuan 14-yuan reverse repurchase operation, with an interest rate of 1.95%, the same as before. As 43 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos expired today, a net investment of 302 billion yuan was realized on that day. MLF operation: There is no MLF placement or operation by the central bank today, and the winning interest rate is 2.50%, which is consistent with the previous PSL operation: There is no PSL placement or operation by the central bank today. TMLF: There are no TMLF expirations and operations today, and treasury fixed deposit operations: There are no treasury fixed deposit expirations and operations today.\", 'authorid': UUID('06615761-5e26-57d2-b056-2b9f0d8913bd'), 'sentimentScore': -0.002234138548374176, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '35JO2POQCN8BNH7S1O5DCKNHHBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:52 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '35JO2POQCN8BNH7S1O5DCKNHHBVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('3bafde62-12ec-5ed4-9b71-a8d5d6931e17'), 'title': 'Comments on CPI and PPI data in January: Year-on-year decline in CPI in January expanded', 'author': 'Chen Li', 'orgName': '川财证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000204', 'orgSName': '川财证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-08', 'encodeUrl': 'FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA9xh/CSjQe/W1nrfhtuXP7k=', 'researcher': '陈雳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000174919'], 'count': 13, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA9xh/CSjQe/W1nrfhtuXP7k=', 'site': 'Chuancai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '川财证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621127046_1.pdf?1707397254000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621127046_1.pdf?1707397254000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on CPI and PPI data in January: Year-on-year decline in CPI in January expanded', 'originalAuthor': '陈雳', 'originalContent': '事件2月8日,国家统计局公布数据，2024年1月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.8%，降幅较上月扩大0.5个百分点；环比上涨0.3%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降2.5%，降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点；环比下降0.2%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。（国家统计局）点评CPI同比降幅扩大。从同比角度看，1月份CPI同比下降0.8%，降幅较前值扩大0.5个百分点，主要受到春节错位、去年同比基数走高的影响，去年春节在1月、且需求处于疫后反弹期，而今年春节在2月中上旬。食品方面，猪肉、鲜菜、鲜果价格分别下降17.3%、12.7%和9.1%，共同影响CPI下降约0.78个百分点，是带动CPI同比下降的主要因素。从环比角度看，1月CPI环比上涨0.3%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点，寒潮天气、春节前消费出行需求的增加是主要拉升因素。寒潮天气和春节临近，使得虾蟹类、鲜菜、薯类及鲜菌价格上涨，共同带动CPI上涨约0.12个百分点；出行需求的增加，使得机票、旅游价格上涨，共同带动CPI上涨约0.10个百分点。PPI同比、环比下降，但降幅均收窄。一方面，受到国际大宗商品价格波动等输入性因素影响；另一方面，与制造业PMI于收缩区间小幅回暖反映出的信号一致：国内部分行业进入传统生产淡季，工业企业的下游需求在恢复过程中。从同比角度看，上游采矿业、下游制造业表现较好，中游原材料业表现分化。从环比角度看，生产资料方面，国际原油、有色金属等大宗商品价格波动，钢材节前补库需求增加，化工产品、水泥等工业品需求偏弱，共同导致生产资料价格下降0.2%，降幅收窄0.1个百分点。生活资料方面，生活资料价格下降0.2%，降幅扩大0.1个百分点，主要受耐用消费品价格下降拖累。展望后市，短期来看，CPI预计仍将维持偏低水平；中长期看，CPI有望随市场需求的扩大、供求关系的改善，在2024年实现温和回升。PPI方面，PPI同比降幅收窄的大趋势不会改变，但过程中可能出现反复。随着工业企业下游需求的进一步复苏，生产资料价格有望企稳回升。风险提示：国际原油价格超预期波动，出现严重信用事件，政策变化不及预期。', 'content': 'On February 8, the National Bureau of Statistics released data. In January 2024, the national consumer price dropped by 0.8% year-on-year, a decline that expanded by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; it rose by 0.3% month-on-month, and the decline expanded by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The national industrial producer price fell by 2.5% year-on-year, and the decline was 0.2 percentage points narrower than last month; it fell by 0.2% month-on-month, and the decline was 0.1 percentage points narrower than last month. (National Bureau of Statistics) commented that the year-on-year decline in CPI expanded. From a year-on-year perspective, CPI fell by 0.8% year-on-year in January, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. This was mainly affected by the misalignment of the Spring Festival and the higher year-on-year base last year. Last year, the Spring Festival was in January, and demand was in the post-epidemic rebound period. This year, The Spring Festival is in mid-to-early February. In terms of food, the prices of pork, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits fell by 17.3%, 12.7% and 9.1% respectively, which together affected the CPI to fall by about 0.78 percentage points and were the main factors driving the year-on-year decline in CPI. From a month-on-month perspective, CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month in January, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Cold wave weather and increased consumer travel demand before the Spring Festival were the main factors driving the increase. The cold wave weather and the approaching Spring Festival have caused the prices of shrimps, crabs, fresh vegetables, potatoes and fresh mushrooms to rise, which together drove the CPI to rise by about 0.12 percentage points. The increase in travel demand has caused the prices of air tickets and tourism to rise, which together drove the CPI to rise by about 0.10 percentage points. percentage point. PPI fell year-on-year and month-on-month, but the decline narrowed. On the one hand, it is affected by input factors such as fluctuations in international commodity prices; on the other hand, it is consistent with the signal reflected by the slight recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the contraction range: some domestic industries have entered the traditional production off-season, and the downstream demand of industrial enterprises is recovering. middle. From a year-on-year perspective, the upstream mining industry and downstream manufacturing industry performed better, while the midstream raw material industry performed differently. From a month-on-month perspective, in terms of means of production, international crude oil, non-ferrous metals and other bulk commodity prices fluctuated, the demand for replenishment of steel before the holiday increased, and the demand for chemical products, cement and other industrial products was weak, which together led to a 0.2% decline in the price of means of production, with the decline narrowing. narrower by 0.1 percentage points. In terms of daily necessities, the price of daily necessities fell by 0.2%, and the decline expanded by 0.1 percentage point, mainly affected by the decline in the price of durable consumer goods. Looking forward to the market outlook, in the short term, CPI is expected to remain at a low level; in the medium and long term, CPI is expected to recover moderately in 2024 as market demand expands and supply and demand improve. In terms of PPI, the general trend of narrowing year-on-year PPI decline will not change, but there may be recurrences in the process. With the further recovery of downstream demand from industrial enterprises, prices of means of production are expected to stabilize and rebound. Risk warning: International crude oil prices fluctuate beyond expectations, serious credit events occur, and policy changes are less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('267e0858-7a39-5196-be76-43e80fed6dc6'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9619903136044741, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '2I5NVKV7PTHNVT5CGVG4OMHR53VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:55 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '2I5NVKV7PTHNVT5CGVG4OMHR53VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('79641c47-a6fc-568a-b62b-43b91d14fca5'), 'title': '[Guangdong Open Macro] Changes in fiscal revenue rankings of China’s provinces from 1949 to 2023', 'author': 'Luo Zhiheng, Fang Kun', 'orgName': '粤开证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000118', 'orgSName': '粤开证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-08', 'encodeUrl': 'FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA3J/LR4ObXCBQDpUQu0Cjao=', 'researcher': '罗志恒,方堃', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245432', '11000282034'], 'count': 6, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWA3J/LR4ObXCBQDpUQu0Cjao=', 'site': 'Guangdong Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '粤开证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621124871_1.pdf?1707390608000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621124871_1.pdf?1707390608000.pdf', 'originalTitle': '[Guangdong Open Macro] Changes in fiscal revenue rankings of China’s provinces from 1949 to 2023', 'originalAuthor': '罗志恒,方堃', 'originalContent': '摘要近日，财政部及各地方财政厅（局）陆续发布了2023年财政数据。2023年31个省份地方财政收入同比实现正增长，地方一般公共预算本级收入比上年增长7.8%，增速较高主要是2022年大规模留抵退税、缓税形成低基数，以及经济增长带动税收恢复性增长。尽管整体恢复性增长，地方财政收入也面临结构性压力。受工业企业利润下滑影���，江苏、浙江等企业所得税收入负增长；受大宗商品价格回调影响，陕西、山西等资源税收入下降；受房地产市场拖累，多个省份土地增值税、契税等地方税收收入仍在下滑。2023年积极的财政政策加力提效，经济不确定因素和结构性减税降费政策叠加，土地出让收入下行，基层“三保”压力和地方政府债务风险仍存。从1949年尤其是1978年改革开放和1994年分税制改革以来，中国区域经济发生了巨大变化，继东西差异之后南北差距加大，随着产业结构和经济发展方式变迁，东北崛起依旧任重道远，都市圈城市群的发展使得人口持续流入。经济分化导致的直接结果是财政分化，兼顾效率和公平，实现发展与均衡是经济和财政体制的目标，在一个百年目标实现后开启第二个百年目标的新征程上尤其如此。七十余年来，尤其是四十余年来，中国各省份的财政收入到底发生了怎样的变迁，我们从财政体制变迁角度略作部分探究。经济与财政是一体两面的关系，区域经济格局变化引发财政收入表现分化。近两年，西部省份一般公共预算收入整体快于东部和中部。这种格局的变化主要源于百年未有之大变局背景下，能源革命与绿色发展加速推进，西部资源密集型省份经济和财政收入增长相对较快；而东部和中部省份遭遇外需下行、房地产低迷等多重压力，经济结构和产业结构调整，财政收入增速相对偏慢。风险提示：经济恢复不及预期。本文中财政收入指一般公共预算收入。', 'content': 'Abstract: Recently, the Ministry of Finance and local finance departments (bureaus) have successively released fiscal data for 2023. In 2023, local fiscal revenue in 31 provinces will achieve positive year-on-year growth, and local general public budget revenue will increase by 7.8% over the previous year. The higher growth rate is mainly due to the low base formed by large-scale excess tax refunds and tax deferrals in 2022, as well as economic growth Drive restorative growth in tax revenue. Despite the overall recovery growth, local fiscal revenue is also facing structural pressure. Affected by the decline in profits of industrial enterprises, corporate income tax revenue in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other provinces has experienced negative growth; affected by the correction of commodity prices, resource tax revenue has declined in Shaanxi, Shanxi and other provinces; dragged down by the real estate market, local tax revenue such as land value-added tax and deed tax in many provinces has still On the decline. In 2023, proactive fiscal policies will be intensified to improve efficiency, economic uncertainties and structural tax and fee reduction policies will overlap, land transfer revenue will decline, and the pressure of \"three guarantees\" at the grassroots level and local government debt risks will still exist. Since 1949, especially since the reform and opening up in 1978 and the tax-sharing reform in 1994, China\\'s regional economy has undergone tremendous changes. Following the east-west difference, the gap between the north and the south has widened. As the industrial structure and economic development methods change, the rise of the Northeast still has a long way to go, and the urban area still has a long way to go. The development of urban agglomerations has resulted in a continuous inflow of population. The direct result of economic differentiation is fiscal differentiation. Taking into account efficiency and fairness, achieving development and balance is the goal of the economic and fiscal system. This is especially true when the first centenary goal is achieved and the new journey of the second centenary goal is started. Over the past seventy years, especially the past forty years, we will briefly explore how the fiscal revenue of China\\'s provinces has changed from the perspective of changes in the fiscal system. Economy and finance are in a relationship with each other, and changes in regional economic patterns have led to divergence in fiscal revenue performance. In the past two years, the general public budget revenue of western provinces has been faster than that of eastern and central provinces. The change in this pattern is mainly due to the acceleration of the energy revolution and green development in the context of major changes unseen in a century. The resource-intensive provinces in the west have relatively fast economic and fiscal revenue growth; while the eastern and central provinces have suffered from declining external demand and sluggish real estate. Due to multiple pressures, economic and industrial structure adjustments, fiscal revenue growth has been relatively slow. Risk warning: The economic recovery is less than expected. Fiscal revenue in this article refers to general public budget revenue.', 'authorid': UUID('7ccf0175-14a6-508f-bd91-25f1f3d4d5c0'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9418764766305685, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'TGARAEUN2D9S1JMAOBV9IGE6OVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:57 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'TGARAEUN2D9S1JMAOBV9IGE6OVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8ca857cd-7b74-5085-b14c-3640ec3483ef'), 'title': 'Macro information tracking', 'author': 'Chen Li', 'orgName': '川财证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000204', 'orgSName': '川财证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-08', 'encodeUrl': 'FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWAxsVd2MHRVL+Dh/orIl/vY8=', 'researcher': '陈雳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000174919'], 'count': 13, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FIbnSO0Q64Kjq1JnDaiWAxsVd2MHRVL+Dh/orIl/vY8=', 'site': 'Chuancai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '川财证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621121636_1.pdf?1707398351000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402081621121636_1.pdf?1707398351000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro information tracking', 'originalAuthor': '陈雳', 'originalContent': '宏观政策商务部等9部门：优化新能源汽车及动力电池等出口相关环节程序提高办理效率商务部等9部门发布关于支持新能源汽车贸易合作健康发展的意见。意见提出，优化运输管理。优化新能源汽车及动力电池等出口相关环节程序，压缩办理时间，提高办理效率。积极参与国际海事组织关于新能源汽车及动力电池运输的国际标准规则制定。制定出台乘用车集装箱载运技术标准。在严格保障运输安全的基础上，抓紧研究动力电池铁路运输的技术方案。指导新能源汽车及动力电池生产企业、物流企业按照水路运输危险货物有关法规做好出口运输申报的相关工作，定期对相关企业开展培训，提升申报效率。（商务部官网）宏观动态央行：将于2月20日在香港招标发行450亿元人民币央票中国人民银行公告，2024年2月20日(周二)将通过香港金融管理局债务工具中央结算系统(CMU)债券投标平台，招标发行2024年第一期和第二期中央银行票据。第一期中央银行票据期限3个月(91天)，为固定利率附息债券，到期还本付息，发行量为人民币300亿元。第二期中央银行票据期限1年，为固定利率附息债券，每半年付息一次，发行量为人民币150亿元。（证券时报网）风险提示：宏观经济修复不及预期，出现严重信用事件，增量政策不及预期。', 'content': \"Macro-policy Ministry of Commerce and other 9 departments: Optimize export-related procedures for new energy vehicles and power batteries to improve processing efficiency. Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued opinions on supporting the healthy development of new energy vehicle trade cooperation. Opinions were put forward to optimize transportation management. Optimize export-related procedures for new energy vehicles and power batteries, shorten processing time, and improve processing efficiency. Actively participate in the International Maritime Organization’s formulation of international standard rules for the transportation of new energy vehicles and power batteries. Formulate and promulgate technical standards for passenger car container transportation. On the basis of strictly ensuring transportation safety, we will promptly study the technical solutions for power battery railway transportation. Guide new energy vehicle and power battery manufacturing companies and logistics companies to complete export transportation declarations in accordance with relevant laws and regulations on water transport of dangerous goods, and conduct regular training for relevant companies to improve declaration efficiency. (Official website of the Ministry of Commerce) Macro Dynamics Central Bank: It will issue a tender for 45 billion yuan of central bank bills in Hong Kong on February 20. The People's Bank of China announced that on February 20, 2024 (Tuesday), it will pass the Central Settlement System for Debt Instruments of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. (CMU) bond bidding platform, inviting bids for the issuance of the first and second tranches of central bank bills in 2024. The first tranche of central bank bills has a term of 3 months (91 days) and is a fixed-rate interest-bearing bond. The principal and interest will be repaid upon maturity. The issuance amount is RMB 30 billion. The second tranche of central bank bills has a term of one year and is a fixed-rate interest-bearing bond with interest paid every six months. The issuance amount is RMB 15 billion. (Securities Times Network) Risk warning: Macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, serious credit events occur, and incremental policies are less than expected.\", 'authorid': UUID('267e0858-7a39-5196-be76-43e80fed6dc6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.8266150448471308, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '94THHF1MJ99Q843KI527A0I3HJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:25:59 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '94THHF1MJ99Q843KI527A0I3HJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('b3077829-081c-5b5f-aaee-46c5ba66f4bd'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Weekly: Going with the Trend', 'author': 'Wei Zhichao, Huang Yuyang', 'orgName': '首创证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000122', 'orgSName': '首创证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-07', 'encodeUrl': 'FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kFm/coD5APNsUfG11xlKmfI=', 'researcher': '韦志超,黄煜阳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000279539', '11000415933'], 'count': 3, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kFm/coD5APNsUfG11xlKmfI=', 'site': 'Capital Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '首创证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621032361_1.pdf?1707337029000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621032361_1.pdf?1707337029000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Weekly: Going with the Trend', 'originalAuthor': '韦志超,黄煜阳', 'originalContent': '核心观点股弱债强延续。上周A股在政策刺激之下超跌反弹，但本周重回股弱债强的趋势。周内，万得全A收跌9.3%，南华工业品指数基本持平，10年期国债收益率下行9.4BP。总体上，股弱债强的趋势没有变化，因为形成趋势的因素没有发生明显变化。一方面，经济虽然低位小幅反弹，但仍然处于一个偏弱的状态，以房地产为代表的高频指标依然没有起色，另一方面，政策基调在4月中共中央政治局会议以前也难有大的调整。海外对国内没有明显扰动，10年美国国债收益率在4%左右波动。小票调整仍需关注。将主要股指本轮调整幅度与2015和2018年两个时期的调整比较，可以发现：（1）大部分股指本轮调整幅度超过2018年、但不及2015年；（2）本轮大票回撤比小票更深，以2015和2018年两轮熊市的调整幅度作为参照，结论仍然成立。边际上，周内小票相对于大票确实存在补跌的现象。万得微盘股、中证2000和北证50在主要股指中跌幅居前，周内分别下跌21.7%、16.8%、15.5%。相对小票，大票周内表现明显更好，上证50和沪深300相对万得全A均有正的超额收益。原因既有上文提到的大票比小票跌幅更大，也有增量资金托底的因素。利率债“两头重”。利率债虽然全面走强，但结构上也有分化，1年期和30年期均比10年期收益率下行幅度更大，三者周内分别下行14.3、9.4和12.6BP。债市走强的原因有一部分与股市走弱一体同源，另外还有跨月、跨年流动性边际宽松的影响。美联储偏鹰，美国经济偏强。1月底2月初美债的走势大幅震荡，特别是1月31日-2月2日三个交易日，10年美债收益率先下行12bp，又上行16bp。在这三个交易日内，美债收益率下行的时候，反而是美联储偏鹰的1月议息会议公告之时。与此同时，美股随着美债收益率先下再上。究其原因，可能是对美国经济的预期短期大幅波动。高频数据扫描。高频数据显示经济低位平稳运行，关键数据起色不大。后市展望。短期经济基本面将维持偏弱状态，股弱债强仍是当前趋势，当下继续顺势而为。预计一季度经济数据出炉政策才会有明显变化，到时再根据政策动向调整策略。如果政策转向，则将当前策略反向操作。风险提示。地产下行超预期，政策不及预期，海外扰动超预期。', 'content': \"The core view is that stocks are weak and bonds are strong. Last week, A-shares rebounded from oversold conditions due to policy stimulus, but this week they returned to the trend of weak stocks and strong bonds. During the week, Wind Quan A closed down 9.3%, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index was basically unchanged, and the 10-year government bond yield fell by 9.4BP. Generally speaking, the trend of weak stocks and strong bonds has not changed, because the factors that form the trend have not changed significantly. On the one hand, although the economy has rebounded slightly from a low level, it is still in a weak state, and high-frequency indicators represented by real estate have still not improved. On the other hand, it is difficult for the policy tone to make any major changes before the Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee in April. Adjustment. There is no obvious domestic disturbance from overseas, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fluctuates around 4%. The adjustment of small tickets still needs attention. Comparing the current round of adjustments of major stock indexes with those in 2015 and 2018, we can find that: (1) the current round of adjustments for most stock indexes exceeds that of 2018, but is less than that of 2015; (2) the current round of big ticket retracement It is deeper than a small ticket. Taking the adjustment range of the two bear markets in 2015 and 2018 as a reference, the conclusion still holds. On the margin, there is indeed a phenomenon of small tickets making up for the decline compared with large tickets during the week. Wind micro-cap stocks, CSI 2000 and BSE 50 were the top losers among the major stock indexes, falling 21.7%, 16.8% and 15.5% respectively during the week. Compared with small stocks, large stocks performed significantly better during the week. The Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 both had positive excess returns relative to WIND and all A's. The reasons include the above-mentioned large-ticket decline greater than that of small-ticket prices, as well as the factor of incremental funds supporting the bottom line. Interest rate bonds are “heavy on both ends.” Although interest rate bonds have strengthened across the board, they are also structurally differentiated. Both the 1-year and 30-year yields have fallen more sharply than the 10-year yields, with the three falling by 14.3, 9.4 and 12.6 BP respectively during the week. Part of the reason for the strength of the bond market has the same origin as the weakness of the stock market, and there is also the impact of the loose margin of liquidity across months and years. The Fed is hawkish and the U.S. economy is strong. The trend of U.S. Treasury bonds fluctuated sharply at the end of January and early February, especially in the three trading days from January 31 to February 2. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond first fell by 12bp, and then rose by 16bp. In these three trading days, when U.S. bond yields fell, it was the time when the Federal Reserve's hawkish January interest rate meeting was announced. At the same time, U.S. stocks first fell and then rose along with U.S. bond yields. The reason may be the sharp short-term fluctuations in expectations for the U.S. economy. High frequency data scanning. High-frequency data shows that the economy is operating smoothly at a low level, and key data have shown little improvement. Outlook. The short-term economic fundamentals will remain weak. Weak stocks and strong bonds are still the current trend, and we will continue to follow the trend. It is expected that there will be no significant changes in policy until the economic data in the first quarter are released, and then the strategy will be adjusted based on policy trends. If the policy changes, the current policy will be reversed. risk warning. The real estate downturn exceeded expectations, policies fell short of expectations, and overseas disturbances exceeded expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('0181c0d9-e631-5b03-bfe5-4493ac0ae23e'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9289105338975787, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'BEOSED5LL7DAIMO7RKLHJ4R2SFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:26:02 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'BEOSED5LL7DAIMO7RKLHJ4R2SFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a599f0e1-2c5c-5cfa-a5f3-71b6c3c7676c'), 'title': 'A series of studies on the high-quality development of China’s economy: Digital economy: the new national system and the leading role of central state-owned enterprises', 'author': 'Zhang Jun, Gao Ming, Yang Chao, Wu Jing, Wang Xueying, Nie Tianqi, Lu Lei', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-07', 'encodeUrl': 'FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kJ+YvgyDkkEUFwWrxnCA384=', 'researcher': '章俊,高明,杨超,吴京,王雪莹,聂天奇,吕雷', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067', '11000262937', '11000406637', '11000450635', '11000450637', '11000450636', '11000443769'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kJ+YvgyDkkEUFwWrxnCA384=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621031653_1.pdf?1707335238000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621031653_1.pdf?1707335238000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'A series of studies on the high-quality development of China’s economy: Digital economy: the new national system and the leading role of central state-owned enterprises', 'originalAuthor': '章俊,高明,杨超,吴京,王雪莹,聂天奇,吕雷', 'originalContent': '核心观点：政府主导产业政策来推动创新和经济转型已成为各国共识。全球经济在2008年次贷危机之后陷入了人口加速老龄���和债务无限扩张的困局中，而新冠疫情又让各种结构性问题愈加恶化。虽然近年来全球在人工智能、新能源、生物科技层面都取得了重大突破，但由于经济危机和衰退的阴影持续笼罩，企业层面进行大规模研发和投资的意愿低迷。有鉴于此，各国政府纷纷启动相关产业政策来推动新兴产业的发展，例如《美国创新和竞争法案》，其中包括《关键核心领域（芯片和5G）拨款》《无尽的前沿法案》。“欧洲地平线”（2021-2027年）投资额相比2014-2020年“地平线2020”增长30%。英国2020年《研发路线图》，加强对基础研究的长期支持力度以及在国家战略层面的引导和统筹。日本岸田政府在安倍经济学的基础上又推动发展以绿色和数字产业为核心的新资本主义。新型举国体制体现了集中力量办大事的独特政治优势和制度优势。党的二十大报告明确提出“完善党中央对科技工作统一领导的体制，健全新型举国体制，强化国家战略科技力量”的重要任务。2022年9月6日，中央深改委第27次会议审议通过了《关于健全社会主义市场经济条件下关键核心技术攻关新型举国体制的意见》，对“新型举国体制”给出了系统性定义：要把政府、市场、社会有机结合起来，科学统筹、集中力量、优化机制、协同攻关。加强战略谋划和系统布局，坚持国家战略目标导向，瞄准事关我国产业、经济和国家安全的若干重点领域及重大任务，明确主攻方向和核心技术突破口，重点研发具有先发优势的关键技术和引领未来发展的基础前沿技术。央国企的引领作用对中国数字经济发展具有重要意义。目前中国经济处于新旧动能切换的关键时期，一方面是以基建和房地产为代表的旧动能减弱，另一方面以数字经济为代表的新动能路径依然在摸索过程中，经济和社会效益的显现是一个长周期过程。民企投资具有一定的顺周期属性，但当下发展数字经济需要进行超前的产业布局和投资，在此过程中需要央国企扮演极为重要的角色来配合新型举国体制的实施和落地，来加大相关的科研和投资力度。数字经济之央国企投资价值分析：央国企积极布局数字化转型，在数字经济高质量发展中发挥着引领作用。在经营指标体系优化调整下，央国企盈利能力相对占优。相对于数字经济板块整体，央国企高股息特性显著，具备更高安全边际，低估值状态下中长期配置价值凸显。行业视角下，央国企在数字经济板块多数行业中占据重要地位，尤其在通信、传媒、计算机和机械设备行业优势明显，后续估值修复空间也相对较大。2023年以来，数字经济重点行业中，央国企指数累计收益率状况均优于全行业，进一步印证国有企业的投资价值。在数字经济六大重点行业中，依据盈利、估值和股息率指标，分别筛选出五只央国企个股，以供参考。风险提示1.历史收益不代表未来业绩的风险2.市场存在短期波动的风险3.对政策理解不到位的风险4.政策时滞的风险5.地缘政治冲击的风险', 'content': 'Core point of view: It has become the consensus of all countries that governments lead industrial policies to promote innovation and economic transformation. After the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the global economy fell into a dilemma of accelerated population aging and unlimited debt expansion, and the COVID-19 epidemic has worsened various structural problems. Although the world has made major breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, new energy, and biotechnology in recent years, the willingness of enterprises to conduct large-scale R&D and investment is sluggish due to the continued shadow of economic crisis and recession. In view of this, governments around the world have launched relevant industrial policies to promote the development of emerging industries, such as the \"American Innovation and Competition Act\", which includes the \"Key Core Areas (Chip and 5G) Appropriations\" and the \"Endless Frontier Act\". The investment volume of \"Horizon Europe\" (2021-2027) increased by 30% compared with \"Horizon 2020\" from 2014-2020. The UK\\'s 2020 R&D Roadmap strengthens long-term support for basic research and guidance and coordination at the national strategic level. On the basis of Abenomics, the Kishida government of Japan has promoted the development of new capitalism with green and digital industries as its core. The new national system embodies the unique political and institutional advantages of concentrating efforts to accomplish major tasks. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly stated the important tasks of \"improving the system of unified leadership of the Party Central Committee over scientific and technological work, improving the new national system, and strengthening the national strategic scientific and technological strength.\" On September 6, 2022, the 27th meeting of the Central Committee for Deepening Reform reviewed and approved the \"Opinions on Improving the New National System for Research on Key Core Technologies under the Conditions of the Socialist Market Economy\", which gave a systematic definition of the \"new national system\" : It is necessary to organically integrate the government, market, and society, scientifically coordinate, concentrate efforts, optimize mechanisms, and collaboratively tackle key problems. Strengthen strategic planning and system layout, adhere to the orientation of national strategic goals, aim at several key areas and major tasks related to my country\\'s industry, economy and national security, clarify the main direction and core technology breakthroughs, and focus on the research and development of key technologies and leadership with first-mover advantages Basic cutting-edge technologies for future development. The leading role of central state-owned enterprises is of great significance to the development of China’s digital economy. China\\'s economy is currently in a critical period of switching between old and new kinetic energy. On the one hand, the old kinetic energy represented by infrastructure and real estate is weakening. On the other hand, the path of new kinetic energy represented by the digital economy is still in the process of exploration. The emergence of economic and social benefits is A long-term process. Private enterprise investment has certain procyclical attributes, but the current development of the digital economy requires advanced industrial layout and investment. In this process, central state-owned enterprises need to play an extremely important role to cooperate with the implementation and implementation of the new national system to increase related Research and investment intensity. Analysis of the investment value of central state-owned enterprises in the digital economy: Central state-owned enterprises are actively planning for digital transformation and playing a leading role in the high-quality development of the digital economy. Under the optimization and adjustment of the operating indicator system, the profitability of central state-owned enterprises is relatively dominant. Compared with the digital economy sector as a whole, central state-owned enterprises have obvious high dividend characteristics, a higher margin of safety, and prominent mid- and long-term allocation value under low valuations. From an industry perspective, central state-owned enterprises occupy an important position in most industries in the digital economy sector. Especially in the communications, media, computer and mechanical equipment industries, they have obvious advantages, and there is relatively large room for subsequent valuation repairs. Since 2023, among the key industries of the digital economy, the cumulative return rate of the central state-owned enterprise index has been better than that of the entire industry, further confirming the investment value of state-owned enterprises. Among the six key industries of the digital economy, five central state-owned enterprise stocks were selected for reference based on profitability, valuation and dividend yield indicators. Risk warning 1. The risk that historical returns do not represent future performance 2. The risk of short-term market fluctuations 3. The risk of insufficient understanding of policies 4. The risk of policy lags 5. The risk of geopolitical shocks', 'authorid': UUID('c0d6d4c4-9a37-57cf-9694-198d2a57da19'), 'sentimentScore': 0.276842437684536, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'M181SH24KJJ74DOBMAVAVVK8B7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:26:05 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'M181SH24KJJ74DOBMAVAVVK8B7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "IncompleteRead(32294 bytes read, 17671 more expected)\n", - "{'id': UUID('137b756d-3d7a-59a0-91c9-b59fb0728aa7'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Special Topic: 2024 Global Election “Tracking” Guide (Issue 1)', 'author': 'He Ning, Pan Weizhen', 'orgName': '开源证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000162', 'orgSName': '开源证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-07', 'encodeUrl': 'FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kD80hyvijTyhutu42fo1Jzw=', 'researcher': '何宁,潘纬桢', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000288332', '11000416632'], 'count': 14, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kD80hyvijTyhutu42fo1Jzw=', 'site': 'Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '开源证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621027575_1.pdf?1707329243000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621027575_1.pdf?1707329243000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Special Topic: 2024 Global Election “Tracking” Guide (Issue 1)', 'originalAuthor': '何宁,潘纬桢', 'originalContent': '2024：全球超级选举年在2024年，全球有超过60个国家/地区（约占全球人口49%，超40亿人）将举行全国性选举，数量为有统计以来之最，可谓是全球超级选举年。立足国内，我们认为全球大选将是2024年市场无法忽视的重要变量。一是外交政策上的可能变动；二是经贸环境和政策的可能变动；三是国际地缘政治风险事件走向的可能变动均会对市场产生重要影响。混乱与改变：重点国家/地区选举看点及可能影响1.印度：莫迪的第三任期有望来临。印度宪法规定，总理是政府首席执行官，同时也是人民院中占多数席位的党派领导人，每5年进行一次选举。从最新的民调来看，以印度人民党为首的全国民主联盟有望延续其2014年以来的执政，莫迪将成为极少数连任三届的总理。但同时印度国内政治风向可能进一步右翼化，对外国企业，特别是中国企业来说，并不是一个好的迹象。2.欧洲议会：右翼政党或将继续壮大，欧盟内部裂痕可能加大。欧洲议会是欧洲三大机构中唯一由民众直选的机构，每5年选举一次，其议会组成主要是党团形式。对当前的欧洲议会来说，其面临的最大改变和挑战或许是右翼势力的崛起，可能会从政治、经济双方面对整个欧盟产生越来越多的冲击。3.英国：时隔14年工党或将再度回归。英国下议院每5年举行一次选举，由英国国王任命在议会中占多数的政党党首出任首相，向议会负责。虽然自2010年以来一直是保守党执政，但从民调来看，工党处于领先地位，有望重新成为执政党。其外交政策上亲近欧盟和美国，国内则可能加大财政刺激以促进经济。4.美国：特朗普与拜登或将“再决雌雄”。美国2024年总统大选将于11月5日正式举行，1-6月份是两党初选阶段。从当前的民调来看，或仍是拜登、特朗普担任总统候选人。虽然目前部分民调显示特朗普领先，但从经济因素（经济较强对在任总统连任有很大帮助）、特朗普的司法调查、拜登的身体情况来看，不确定性仍然较大。立足国内，我们要关注特朗普、拜登的政策表态，特别是对华政策（关税、外交等）。但需要明确一点，两党目前都将中国视为最大的战略竞争对手，试图遏制中国的方向或不会变，可能手段和强度上略有差别。全球选举的影响或将渐次显现作为超级选举年，在民族主义思潮回归、右翼势力声势逐渐壮大、全球经济增长继续放缓的大背景下，一年时间内几十个国家/地区先后举行选举，或将使得当前的政治经济局势更复杂多变，甚至于地缘政治上的“化学反应”。在“跟踪”的过程中，我们需要重点关注以下几点：一是美国两党总统候选人、议员对华部分政策的论述与调整，中国议题或是两党总统候选人、议员参选人的一致选择；二是欧盟政治光谱变化的冲击，极右翼势力的发展壮大，可能会对欧盟意识形态上的一体化提出更进一步的挑战；三是印度与巴基斯坦可能的冲突；四是俄乌冲突的可能走向，美欧可能利用选举对乌克兰施压，搅动其国内的政治格局，进而改变当前的僵持态势。风险提示：全球地缘政治风险激化、选举结果出现不可控变化。', 'content': '2024: The global super election year. In 2024, more than 60 countries/regions around the world (accounting for about 49% of the global population and more than 4 billion people) will hold national elections. The number is the largest since statistics were collected. It can be said to be a global super election. Year. Based on the domestic situation, we believe that the global election will be an important variable that the market cannot ignore in 2024. The first is possible changes in foreign policy; the second is possible changes in the economic and trade environment and policies; and the third is possible changes in the direction of international geopolitical risk events, all of which will have an important impact on the market. Chaos and change: Election highlights and possible impacts in key countries/regions 1. India: Modi’s third term is expected to come. The Indian Constitution stipulates that the Prime Minister is the chief executive of the government and the leader of the party with the majority of seats in the Lok Sabha. Elections are held every five years. Judging from the latest polls, the National Democratic Alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to continue its rule since 2014, and Modi will become one of the very few prime ministers to be elected for three consecutive terms. But at the same time, India\\'s domestic political trend may further shift to the right, which is not a good sign for foreign companies, especially Chinese companies. 2. European Parliament: Right-wing parties may continue to grow, and rifts within the EU may widen. The European Parliament is the only one among the three major European institutions that is directly elected by the people. It is elected every five years. Its parliamentary composition is mainly in the form of party groups. For the current European Parliament, perhaps the biggest change and challenge it faces is the rise of right-wing forces, which may have an increasing impact on the entire EU from both political and economic sides. 3. Britain: The Labor Party may return again after 14 years. The British House of Commons holds an election every five years. The British King appoints the leader of the party with a majority in the Parliament as the Prime Minister and is responsible to the Parliament. Although the Conservative Party has been in power since 2010, polls show that Labor is in the lead and is expected to return to power. Its foreign policy is close to the EU and the United States, and domestically it may increase fiscal stimulus to promote the economy. 4. United States: Trump and Biden may have a “rematch.” The 2024 presidential election in the United States will be officially held on November 5. The months from January to June are the primary stages of the two parties. Judging from the current polls, Biden and Trump may still be the presidential candidates. Although some current polls show that Trump is leading, there is still great uncertainty based on economic factors (a strong economy is very helpful for the re-election of the sitting president), Trump\\'s judicial investigation, and Biden\\'s physical condition. . Based at home, we must pay attention to the policy statements of Trump and Biden, especially China policies (tariffs, diplomacy, etc.). However, it needs to be made clear that both parties currently regard China as their biggest strategic competitor. The direction of trying to contain China may not change. There may be slight differences in means and intensity. The impact of global elections may gradually emerge as a super election year. Against the backdrop of the return of nationalist trends, the growing momentum of right-wing forces, and the continued slowdown of global economic growth, dozens of countries/regions have held elections within one year. It may make the current political and economic situation more complex and changeable, and even lead to a \"chemical reaction\" in geopolitics. In the process of \"tracking\", we need to focus on the following points: First, the discussion and adjustment of some policies towards China by the presidential candidates and congressmen of the two parties in the United States. China issues may be discussed by the presidential candidates and congressmen of the two parties. The second is the impact of changes in the EU\\'s political spectrum. The development and growth of far-right forces may pose further challenges to the ideological integration of the EU. The third is the possible conflict between India and Pakistan. The fourth is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The possible direction is that the United States and Europe may use the election to put pressure on Ukraine, disrupt its domestic political landscape, and thus change the current stalemate. Risk warning: Global geopolitical risks intensify and election results undergo uncontrollable changes.', 'authorid': UUID('d47cb679-02a6-5e72-a1c5-22a80f95708b'), 'sentimentScore': 0.02845240943133831, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '2G66TM202MRJA6R8VRTUVI0TLFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:26:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '2G66TM202MRJA6R8VRTUVI0TLFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('29a76e60-16a6-5869-a842-38b969dd8857'), 'title': 'Collaboration within the industry·Capital market quick review: How to view the comprehensive rebound of the A-share market and the market outlook - sometimes flowers bloom, stick to allocation', 'author': 'Zhao Yu, Shi Wubin, Zhang Yuan, Liu Dongliang', 'orgName': '招商银行股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-02-07', 'encodeUrl': 'FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kMYIeEWXfQ7Z9d60E5BNAig=', 'researcher': '赵宇,石武斌,张园,刘东亮', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000393768', '11000385432', '11000442533', '11000177869'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kMYIeEWXfQ7Z9d60E5BNAig=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621027588_1.pdf?1707335542000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621027588_1.pdf?1707335542000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Collaboration within the industry·Capital market quick review: How to view the comprehensive rebound of the A-share market and the market outlook - sometimes flowers bloom, stick to allocation', 'originalAuthor': '赵宇,石武斌,张园,刘东亮', 'originalContent': '一、发生了什么1、2月6日，A股三大指数低开高走，强势反弹。截至发稿，沪指涨2.75%，报2776.58点。深成指涨5.40%，报8395.02点。创业板指涨5.56%，报1649.47。全市场超4000只个股上涨。北向资金净买入131.85亿，主力流入209.06亿。2、证监会积极回应市场关切：暂停新增转融券规模，召开推动上市公司提升投资价值专题座谈会，召开了支持上市公司并购重组座谈，会同公安机关严惩操纵市场恶意做空等。3、中央汇金公司发布公告表示，充分认可当前A股市场配置价值，已于近日扩大交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）增持范围，并将持续加大增持力度、扩大增持规模，坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。二、未来怎么看在经历了一段时间的市场调整后，今日我们见证了A股市场的显著反弹，这无疑为投资者带来了一丝乐观的气息。市场的这一积极变化可能预示着未来有更多的机遇，而关于市场趋势的传言和预期政策的潜在影响，也让我们对未来充满了期待。当前A股估值位于历史低位，内外宏观政策趋于宽松，预计名义经济增速二季度将有所扩张，市场的短期波动并未如实反映中长期基本面，大盘筑底后二季度或跟随基本面迎来改善，A股仍具备中长期配置价值。我们鼓励投资者保持对市场的关注，同时等待相关政策的明确指示。虽然目前市场形势仍有不确定因素，但高层支持资本市场的政策导向明朗，我们相信，无论市场如何变动，坚持理性投资和长期规划总是明智的选择。三、该怎么配整体配置策略上，我们建议各位客户尽量不要在市场暴涨暴跌时做投资决策，而是跳出短期波动，以更长时间维度看待境内外市场机会，做好大类资产配置，构建长期多资产投资组合，并定期做好资产检视。我们将密切关注市场动态和政策发展，及时分享最新信息和相应分析研判。请投资者保持耐心，继续坚持自己的投资原则，不被短期波动所干扰。我们相信，通过理性的研判和稳健的策略，搭配合理的资产配置，我们能够共同迎接市场的每一个挑战。', 'content': '1. What happened 1. On February 6, the three major A-share indexes opened lower and moved higher, rebounding strongly. As of press time, the Shanghai Stock Index rose 2.75% to 2,776.58 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 5.40% to 8395.02 points. The GEM index rose 5.56% to 1649.47. More than 4,000 stocks across the market rose. The net purchase of northbound funds was 13.185 billion, and the main inflow was 20.906 billion. 2. The China Securities Regulatory Commission actively responded to market concerns: it suspended the scale of new securities refinancing, held a symposium on promoting listed companies to enhance their investment value, convened a symposium on supporting mergers, acquisitions and reorganizations of listed companies, and worked with the public security organs to severely punish malicious market manipulation and short selling, etc. 3. Central Huijin issued an announcement stating that it fully recognized the value of the current A-share market allocation, and has recently expanded the scope of holdings of exchange-traded open-end index funds (ETFs), and will continue to increase the intensity and scale of holdings, and resolutely Maintain the smooth operation of the capital market. 2. How to look forward to the future. After a period of market adjustment, today we witnessed a significant rebound in the A-share market, which undoubtedly brought a sense of optimism to investors. This positive change in the market may indicate more opportunities in the future, and rumors about market trends and the potential impact of expected policies also make us full of expectations for the future. The current valuation of A-shares is at a historical low, domestic and foreign macroeconomic policies are becoming looser, and nominal economic growth is expected to expand in the second quarter. The short-term market fluctuations do not truthfully reflect the mid- to long-term fundamentals, and the second quarter after the market bottoms may follow the fundamentals. The situation is improving, and A-shares still have medium- and long-term allocation value. We encourage investors to keep an eye on the market while waiting for clear instructions from relevant policies. Although there are still uncertainties in the current market situation, high-level policy guidance to support the capital market is clear. We believe that no matter how the market changes, it is always a wise choice to adhere to rational investment and long-term planning. 3. How to configure the overall allocation strategy? We recommend that all customers try not to make investment decisions when the market is rising and falling, but to jump out of short-term fluctuations, look at domestic and overseas market opportunities from a longer-term perspective, and do a good job in allocating large categories of assets to build Develop a long-term multi-asset investment portfolio and review assets regularly. We will pay close attention to market dynamics and policy developments, and promptly share the latest information and corresponding analysis and judgment. Investors are asked to remain patient, continue to adhere to their investment principles, and not to be disturbed by short-term fluctuations. We believe that through rational research and judgment, sound strategies, and reasonable asset allocation, we can jointly meet every challenge in the market.', 'authorid': UUID('72aa6d02-29c5-5c74-9e18-084f1eddde05'), 'sentimentScore': 0.46059373021125793, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OOG8U66GJH28PM3DR0631HKG5NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:26:50 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OOG8U66GJH28PM3DR0631HKG5NVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('c87c71c1-8ffb-59b2-8105-7c89bb7713c3'), 'title': 'Collaboration within the Industry·Macro Commentary: Commentary on U.S. Non-Farm Employment Data for January 2024 - \"Wage-Price\" Spiral Risk Reappears', 'author': 'Tan Zhuo, Liu Yiduo, Wang Tiancheng, Chen Cheng', 'orgName': '招商银行股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-02-07', 'encodeUrl': 'FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kNRC+sA3Z57e11w5ChJdzow=', 'researcher': '谭卓,刘一多,王天程,陈诚', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000281853', '11000421035', '11000412642', '11000435935'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kNRC+sA3Z57e11w5ChJdzow=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621027587_1.pdf?1707336092000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621027587_1.pdf?1707336092000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Collaboration within the Industry·Macro Commentary: Commentary on U.S. Non-Farm Employment Data for January 2024 - \"Wage-Price\" Spiral Risk Reappears', 'originalAuthor': '谭卓,刘一多,王天程,陈诚', 'originalContent': '1月美国就业数据大超市场预期。新增就业人数35.3万（市场预期18.5万），失业率3.7%（市场预期3.8%），劳动参与率62.5%（市场预期62.6%），平均时薪环比增速0.6%（市场预期0.3%），同比增速4.5%。经济韧性支撑需求，老龄化进程压缩供给，美国劳动力市场持续供不应求。受此影响，新增就业持续高增，失业率亦保持低企，薪资增速大幅走强，“工资-价格”螺旋风险再度出现。前瞻地看，美国就业市场或维持紧俏，薪资增速或相应保持高位，美联储降息时点和幅度或大幅不及市场预期。一、新增就业：大超预期职位空缺高企指向企业部门雇佣需求仍然旺盛，新增就业居高不下。2023年12月职位空缺率仍然高达5.4%，较疫前三年（2017-2019）均值高出1.1pct，职位空缺数反弹至902.6万，较疫前三年均值高出223.1万。受此影响，2024年1月美国新增就业人数仍高达35.3万，大超市场预期的18.5万，也大幅高于疫前三年均值（17.7万）。与此同时，2023年四季度新增就业人数上修18.6万，月均值升至22.7万，指向就业增长动能仍然强劲。从结构看，新增就业的动能来源从疫后修复切换至经济韧性。服务业方面，前期持续偏强的休闲酒店新增就业大幅收缩，信息和金融行业新增就业持续偏弱，但其他服务业分项新增就业普涨，与消费者信心指数大幅上行和零售数据持续超预期相呼应。制造业方面，采掘业就业在大宗商品价格压制下持续低迷，建筑业就业走弱与行业景气度走势相吻合，制造业就业则在非耐用品制造业带动下大幅走强，与美国消费景气度走势一致。值得注意的是，家庭调查和机构调查的就业人数剪刀差正持续收窄，映射了劳动力市场供不应求的整体格局。与机构调查（非农）相比，家庭调查包括了农业从业者、无报酬工作者和私人雇佣的家庭工人，但不包括16岁以下就业者。二者剪刀差的收窄，反映了劳动者正在向有报酬的非农就业市场集中，16岁以下劳动者也可能在增加。二、失业率＆劳动参与率：卖方市场劳动力供需缺口使得美国失业率水平持续低企。2024年1月美国失业率录得3.7%，连续第3个月持平，低于市场预期的3.8%。当前美国劳动力市场呈现出卖方市场的特征，被动离职者人数下降而主动离职者人数上升，短期失业增加而长期失业减少。劳动参与率连续第2个月录得62.5%，略低于市场预期，继续呈“55岁以下略超疫前，55岁以上低于疫前”的格局。随着美国老龄化进程继续深化，劳动力供给或继续渐进收缩，在长周期进一步压低劳动参与率。三、薪资增速：反转，而非反弹劳动力供需缺口同样支撑了薪资增速。2024年1月美国平均时薪同比、环比动能全面反转，同比增速上行至4.5%；环比增速上行至0.6%，创下2022年4月以来新高。从结构看，服务业和制造业薪资增速显著分化，服务业薪资增速显著走强，制造业薪资增速则大幅回落。服务业方面，多数分项薪资环比增速走强，“用工荒”仍然兼具广度和高度，“工资-价格”螺旋风险再度抬头；制造业方面，商品制造业薪资水平在连续2个月的高增后回落，带动制造业整体薪资增速大幅回落，未来仍有可能再度走强。值得注意的是，持续的薪资高增可能影响了居民整体的“工作-闲暇”分配方式。疫情以来美国人均每周工作时长震荡下行，截至2024年1月已经降至34.1小时，创2010年7月以来新低。这一趋势可能加剧美国劳动力供不应求的现状，并进一步支撑名义薪资高增。四、市场：继续修正降息预期非农就业数据大超预期，市场进一步修正过激的降息预期。美元隔夜利率曲线（OIS）暗示美联储在3月开启降息的概率已经大幅下行至21%，5月前开启降息的概率也从97%大幅下行至68%，2024年全年降息幅度则从156bp（6次）下行至129bp（5次）。美国国债收益率大幅上行。2年期收涨16bp到4.36%，5年期收涨17bp到3.98%，10年期收涨14bp到4.02%，30年期收涨10.2bp到4.22%；美元大幅走强，美元指数从103.05上涨至103.92，美元兑换离岸人民币汇率从7.187上涨至7.211。受科技股业绩超预期影响，美股全面收涨。标普500指数收涨1.07%，纳斯达克指数收涨1.74%，道琼斯指数收涨0.35%。境外美元流动性相对宽松。根据今日境外银行间美元拆借加权成交利率，隔夜5.32%左右，1w5.45%，5.60%，3m5.55%，6m5.55%。五、影响及前瞻：“工资-价格”螺旋风险再现就业数据大幅超预期，叠加美联储在议息会议上的偏鹰表态，将进一步打压市场超调的降息预期。一方面，新增就业和失业率数据均强于市场预期，反映了美国经济韧性仍然强劲；另一方面，薪资增速大幅走强将对服务通胀粘性形成有力支撑，或加剧美联储对“工资-价格”螺旋风险的担忧。前瞻地看，美国劳动力市场“供不应求”的整体格局短期内难以改变，美联储降息时点和幅度或大幅不及市场预期。', 'content': 'U.S. employment data for January greatly exceeded market expectations. The number of new jobs was 353,000 (market expected 185,000), the unemployment rate was 3.7% (market expected 3.8%), the labor force participation rate was 62.5% (market expected 62.6%), and the average hourly wage growth rate was 0.6% month-on-month (market expected 0.3%). , a year-on-year growth rate of 4.5%. Economic resilience supports demand, the aging process compresses supply, and the U.S. labor market continues to be in short supply. Affected by this, new jobs have continued to increase at a high rate, the unemployment rate has remained low, wage growth has strengthened significantly, and the risk of the \"wage-price\" spiral has reappeared. Looking forward, the U.S. job market may remain tight, wage growth may remain high, and the timing and extent of the Fed\\'s interest rate cuts may fall significantly short of market expectations. 1. New jobs: The higher-than-expected job vacancies indicate that employment demand in the corporate sector remains strong, and new jobs remain high. The job vacancy rate in December 2023 is still as high as 5.4%, which is 1.1pct higher than the average of the three years before the epidemic (2017-2019). The number of job vacancies has rebounded to 9.026 million, which is 2.231 million higher than the average of the three years before the epidemic. Affected by this, the number of new jobs in the United States in January 2024 was still as high as 353,000, which exceeded market expectations of 185,000 and was also significantly higher than the three-year average before the epidemic (177,000). At the same time, the number of new jobs in the fourth quarter of 2023 was revised upward by 186,000, with the monthly average rising to 227,000, indicating that employment growth momentum remains strong. From a structural perspective, the source of momentum for new employment has switched from post-epidemic recovery to economic resilience. In terms of the service industry, new employment in leisure hotels, which had been strong in the early stage, shrank significantly, and new employment in the information and financial industries continued to be weak. However, new employment in other service industry sub-categories generally increased, which was in line with the sharp rise in the consumer confidence index and retail data. Continue to exceed expectations. In terms of manufacturing, employment in the extractive industry continues to slump due to the suppression of commodity prices. The weakening employment in the construction industry is consistent with the trend of industry prosperity. Manufacturing employment has strengthened significantly, driven by non-durable goods manufacturing, which is in line with the trend of U.S. consumer prosperity. consistent. It is worth noting that the scissor gap between employment numbers in household surveys and agency surveys continues to narrow, reflecting the overall pattern of labor market shortages. Compared with the institutional survey (non-agricultural), the household survey includes agricultural workers, unpaid workers and privately employed domestic workers, but does not include employed persons under the age of 16. The narrowing of the scissor gap between the two reflects that workers are concentrating into the paid non-agricultural job market, and the number of workers under the age of 16 may also be increasing. 2. Unemployment rate & labor participation rate: The gap between labor supply and demand in the seller\\'s market has kept the U.S. unemployment rate at a low level. The U.S. unemployment rate recorded 3.7% in January 2024, unchanged for the third consecutive month, lower than market expectations of 3.8%. The current U.S. labor market exhibits the characteristics of a seller\\'s market. The number of passive quitters has decreased while the number of voluntary quitters has increased. Short-term unemployment has increased while long-term unemployment has decreased. The labor force participation rate recorded 62.5% for the second consecutive month, slightly lower than market expectations. It continues to show a pattern of \"slightly higher than before the epidemic for those under 55 years old, and lower than before the epidemic for those over 55 years old.\" As the aging process in the United States continues to deepen, the labor supply may continue to gradually shrink, further depressing the labor participation rate in the long term. 3. Wage growth: reversal, not rebound. The gap between labor supply and demand also supports wage growth. In January 2024, the average hourly wage in the United States completely reversed year-on-year and month-on-month momentum, with year-on-year growth rising to 4.5%; month-on-month growth rising to 0.6%, a new high since April 2022. From a structural perspective, the wage growth rates of the service industry and manufacturing industry are significantly different. The service industry wage growth rate has strengthened significantly, while the manufacturing wage growth rate has fallen sharply. In the service industry, the month-on-month growth rate of wages in most sub-sectors is stronger, the \"labor shortage\" is still both broad and high, and the \"wage-price\" spiral risk has reared its head again; in the manufacturing industry, the wage level of the goods manufacturing industry has been at a high for two consecutive months. The decline after the increase has driven the overall wage growth in the manufacturing industry to fall sharply, and it is still possible to strengthen again in the future. It is worth noting that the continued high wage growth may have affected the overall \"work-leisure\" distribution pattern of residents. Since the epidemic, the average weekly working hours in the United States has fluctuated downwards. As of January 2024, it has dropped to 34.1 hours, a new low since July 2010. This trend may exacerbate the shortage of labor in the United States and further support high nominal wage growth. 4. Market: Continue to revise expectations for interest rate cuts. Non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, and the market further revised expectations for excessive interest rate cuts. The U.S. dollar overnight interest rate curve (OIS) suggests that the probability of the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in March has dropped significantly to 21%. The probability of starting to cut interest rates before May has also dropped sharply from 97% to 68%. The full-year interest rate cut in 2024 has dropped from 156bp ( 6 times) down to 129bp (5 times). U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply. The 2-year term closed up 16bp to 4.36%, the 5-year term closed up 17bp to 3.98%, the 10-year term closed up 14bp to 4.02%, and the 30-year term closed up 10.2bp to 4.22%; the US dollar strengthened significantly, and the US dollar index rose from 103.05 to 103.92, and the USD/CNH exchange rate rose from 7.187 to 7.211. Affected by the better-than-expected performance of technology stocks, U.S. stocks closed higher across the board. The S&P 500 closed up 1.07%, the Nasdaq closed up 1.74%, and the Dow Jones closed up 0.35%. Offshore U.S. dollar liquidity is relatively loose. According to today\\'s weighted transaction interest rate of overseas inter-bank U.S. dollar lending, it was around 5.32% overnight, 5.45% for 1w, 5.60%, 5.55% for 3m, and 5.55% for 6m. 5. Impact and Prospects: The \"wage-price\" spiral risk reappears, employment data significantly exceeds expectations, and the Federal Reserve\\'s hawkish stance at the interest rate meeting will further suppress the market\\'s overshoot expectations of interest rate cuts. On the one hand, the new job creation and unemployment rate data were stronger than market expectations, reflecting that the U.S. economic resilience remains strong; on the other hand, the sharp increase in wage growth will provide strong support for the stickiness of service inflation, which may intensify the Fed\\'s \"wage-price\" \"Concerns about spiral risks. Looking forward, the overall pattern of \"supply exceeding demand\" in the U.S. labor market is difficult to change in the short term, and the timing and extent of the Fed\\'s interest rate cuts may fall significantly short of market expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('bd808364-3932-53ec-b335-d76c5f137d51'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9068516101688147, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '26PPURRLAHCT6FQSNDHHRSS04JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:26:54 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '26PPURRLAHCT6FQSNDHHRSS04JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('0f34d746-2486-54ef-8de2-6c2fa8351bdf'), 'title': 'New motivations after gold decoupled from real interest rates: Gold reserve rebalancing drives global central banks to accelerate gold purchases', 'author': 'Chen Qiao, Liu Dongliang', 'orgName': '招商银行股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000020', 'orgSName': '招商银行', 'publishDate': '2024-02-07', 'encodeUrl': 'FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kCdnpA4pmKV0gM0z8dWLYXo=', 'researcher': '陈峤,刘东亮', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000316145', '11000177869'], 'count': 16, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kCdnpA4pmKV0gM0z8dWLYXo=', 'site': 'China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '招商银行', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621027585_1.pdf?1707335444000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621027585_1.pdf?1707335444000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'New motivations after gold decoupled from real interest rates: Gold reserve rebalancing drives global central banks to accelerate gold purchases', 'originalAuthor': '陈峤,刘东亮', 'originalContent': '黄金强势的背后，与美元实际利率的负相关性出现背离：黄金作为不生息资产，美元实际利率可以视作黄金的持有成本，两者在理论上为负相关关系。但是近两年，这个负相关关系出现了显著背离。央行增加购金是支撑金价的主因：（1）黄金在全球储备资产中的历史变化：从高度集中到再平衡。全球央行对黄金的储备经历了三个历史阶段，前布雷顿时期（1976年以前）、牙买加体系时期（1976-2008）、再平衡时期（2008年以后）。近两年，黄金储备的再平衡出现加速迹象。从金融危机之后到2022年之前，央行每年的购金量在500吨上下，全球每年的黄金需求量大约为4500吨，央行购金占总需求的比例约为11%，对金价的影响有限。但是从2022年开始，央行购金量翻倍，从往年的500吨上升为1000吨，占比也从11%直接跃升到20%以上。2023年也保持着这个趋势未变。（2）“百年未有之大变局”加速黄金储备再平衡。增持黄金的主力集中在新兴市场央行。新兴市场央行为何在这两年加大了对于黄金的购买？我们认为，一个很重要的原因是世界格局的变化，导致储备资产多元化的必要性和紧迫性在抬升，客观上加速了黄金储备的再平衡。对于部分新兴市场国家而言，全球从缓和走向对抗，促使其更加关注自身储备资产的安全性，而西方国家对俄罗斯的金融制裁开启了一个危险且糟糕的先例，表明在储备资产中过度依赖单一货币存在政治上巨大的尾部风险。因此，储备资产多元化、再平衡的必要性和紧迫性进一步抬升，黄金的价值在此时就凸显出来。央行购金对黄金的影响：中期来说（1-2年），央行加大增持黄金的趋势已经形成，且尚未看到逆转的迹象，预计会继续成为金价的重要驱动力。长期来说（3-10年），新兴市场央行对黄金的增持存在一个阈值，当黄金在储备资产中的占比逐渐接近这一阈值时，对金价的利多影响将逐步钝化，这一阈值的高低将决定黄金储备再平衡持续的时间。2024年伦敦金或有望挑战2300美金：黄金仍处于上涨周期，伦敦金在2024年或有望突破2,300美金/盎司，建议维持中高配���第一，美元实际利率的高企压力缓解，利好黄金。第二，美元缺乏单边升值动力，对黄金无利空影响。第三，央行购金的趋势仍在，利好黄金。', 'content': \"Behind the strength of gold, there is a departure from the negative correlation with the real interest rate of the U.S. dollar: gold is a non-interest-bearing asset, and the real interest rate of the U.S. dollar can be regarded as the holding cost of gold. The two are theoretically negatively correlated. However, in the past two years, there has been a significant deviation from this negative correlation. The central bank's increase in gold purchases is the main reason for supporting gold prices: (1) The historical changes of gold in global reserve assets: from high concentration to rebalancing. The global central bank's gold reserves have gone through three historical stages, the pre-Breton period (before 1976), the Jamaican system period (1976-2008), and the rebalancing period (after 2008). In the past two years, the rebalancing of gold reserves has shown signs of acceleration. From after the financial crisis to before 2022, the central bank's annual gold purchases were around 500 tons. The annual global gold demand was about 4,500 tons. The central bank's gold purchases accounted for about 11% of the total demand, and its impact on gold prices was limited. But starting in 2022, the central bank's gold purchases will double, from 500 tons in previous years to 1,000 tons, and the proportion will jump directly from 11% to more than 20%. This trend will remain unchanged in 2023. (2) “Major changes unseen in a century” will accelerate the rebalancing of gold reserves. The main force in increasing gold holdings is concentrated in emerging market central banks. Why have emerging market central banks increased their gold purchases in the past two years? We believe that a very important reason is that changes in the world structure have led to an increase in the necessity and urgency of diversifying reserve assets, which has objectively accelerated the rebalancing of gold reserves. For some emerging market countries, the global shift from relaxation to confrontation has prompted them to pay more attention to the safety of their reserve assets. The financial sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia have set a dangerous and bad precedent, indicating over-reliance on a single unit in reserve assets. There is huge political tail risk in currencies. Therefore, the necessity and urgency of diversification and rebalancing of reserve assets have further increased, and the value of gold has become highlighted at this time. The impact of central bank gold purchases on gold: In the medium term (1-2 years), the trend of central banks increasing their gold holdings has taken shape, and there are no signs of reversal yet. It is expected to continue to be an important driving force for gold prices. In the long term (3-10 years), there is a threshold for emerging market central banks to increase their holdings of gold. When the proportion of gold in reserve assets gradually approaches this threshold, the positive impact on gold prices will gradually be blunted. The level of the threshold will determine how long the rebalancing of gold reserves lasts. London gold may challenge US$2,300 in 2024: Gold is still in an upward cycle, and London gold may exceed US$2,300 per ounce in 2024. It is recommended to maintain a medium-high allocation. First, the pressure on high U.S. dollar real interest rates has eased, which is good for gold. Second, the U.S. dollar lacks unilateral appreciation momentum and has no negative impact on gold. Third, the trend of central banks buying gold is still there, which is good for gold.\", 'authorid': UUID('415b3e32-fb45-5948-9da0-d09e8acb1837'), 'sentimentScore': 0.12171301990747452, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'LDDFRE4ILA5TUQT0FS8EU93ROJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:26:56 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'LDDFRE4ILA5TUQT0FS8EU93ROJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9d94d1cc-8b9b-5629-a37d-025e2795ec20'), 'title': 'finally come! Beijing optimizes purchase restriction policy in Tongzhou District', 'author': '', 'orgName': '中国指数研究院', 'orgCode': '80686265', 'orgSName': '中国指数研究院', 'publishDate': '2024-02-07', 'encodeUrl': 'FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kI4BHpIadkNzpAS6mWzw6q0=', 'researcher': '', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': '', 'count': 0, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kI4BHpIadkNzpAS6mWzw6q0=', 'site': 'China Index Academy', 'originalSite': '中国指数研究院', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621025461_1.pdf?1707326682000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621025461_1.pdf?1707326682000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'finally come! Beijing optimizes purchase restriction policy in Tongzhou District', 'originalAuthor': '', 'originalContent': '2024年2月6日，北京发布《关于调整通州区商品住房销售政策的通知》，优化了执行八年多的通州区购房双限政策，明确京籍家庭不再需要3年以上通州户籍或近3年在通州缴纳社保/个税（仍需要通州户籍或通州劳动关系），非京籍家庭也不再需要3年社保/个税要求。至此，2024年以来，四个一线城市中，北京、上海、广州均优化了限购政策，释放了更加积极信号，有利于提振市场预期。2015年8月14日，为促进通州区房地产市场平稳健康发展，北京市住建委、通州区政府发布《关于加强通州区商品住房销售管理的通知》，双限政策落地后，市场降温明显，2016年，通州新房成交规模同比下降40.0%，2017-2021年新房市场情绪有所回升。近两年全国房地产市场调整，通州区成交量再度下行，根据中指数据，2023年，通州区新房成交量52.4万平方米，同比下降24.1%，绝对值处2020年以来最低位。2024年1月，通州区新建商品住宅成交10.3万平方米，受部分共有产权房集中网签及政策影响，同比增长接近1.8倍。从成交规模占比来看，2014、2015年通州新房销售面积在全市新房销售面积中占比约13%，在双限政策落地后，占比明显下降，2023年通州新房销售面积占比仅7.8%，较2015年高点下降6个百分点。二手房方面，根据中指数据，2023年通州区二手住宅成交接近1万套，为2017年以来的最高水平，同比增长14.4%，二手房市场整体保持一定活跃度。', 'content': 'On February 6, 2024, Beijing issued the \"Notice on Adjusting the Commercial Housing Sales Policy in Tongzhou District\", optimizing the dual-limit policy on house purchase in Tongzhou District that has been implemented for more than eight years, clarifying that Beijing-registered households no longer need to have Tongzhou household registration for more than 3 years or more recently. Three years of social security/personal tax payment in Tongzhou (Tongzhou household registration or Tongzhou labor relationship is still required), and non-Beijing households no longer need the three-year social security/personal tax requirement. So far, since 2024, among the four first-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have all optimized purchase restriction policies, releasing more positive signals, which will help boost market expectations. On August 14, 2015, in order to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in Tongzhou District, the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission and the Tongzhou District Government issued the \"Notice on Strengthening the Sales Management of Commercial Housing in Tongzhou District\". After the implementation of the double-limit policy, the market cooled down significantly. In 2016 In 2017, the scale of new home transactions in Tongzhou dropped by 40.0% year-on-year, and the new home market sentiment rebounded from 2017 to 2021. In the past two years, the national real estate market has adjusted, and the transaction volume in Tongzhou District has declined again. According to China Index data, in 2023, the transaction volume of new homes in Tongzhou District was 524,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24.1%, and the absolute value was the lowest since 2020. In January 2024, the transaction volume of new commercial housing in Tongzhou District was 103,000 square meters. Affected by the centralized online signing of some shared property houses and policies, the year-on-year increase was nearly 1.8 times. Judging from the proportion of transaction scale, Tongzhou\\'s new home sales area accounted for about 13% of the city\\'s new home sales area in 2014 and 2015. After the implementation of the dual-limit policy, the proportion dropped significantly. In 2023, Tongzhou\\'s new home sales area accounted for only 7.8%. %, down 6 percentage points from the 2015 high. In terms of second-hand housing, according to China Index data, the number of second-hand housing transactions in Tongzhou District in 2023 will be close to 10,000 units, the highest level since 2017, with a year-on-year increase of 14.4%. The overall second-hand housing market maintains a certain level of activity.', 'authorid': UUID('0a68eb57-c88a-5f34-9e9d-27f85e68af4f'), 'sentimentScore': 0.08692089840769768, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'G1UOK82G14D7BHCU3MHHC9EP0RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:26:59 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'G1UOK82G14D7BHCU3MHHC9EP0RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('87d0d12d-bc47-578d-b0da-afa87ece5994'), 'title': 'Review of Economic Hot Topics (January 2024)', 'author': 'Zhang Wenyu , Zhang Lin', 'orgName': '中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80002154', 'orgSName': '中诚信国际', 'publishDate': '2024-02-07', 'encodeUrl': 'FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kFLRR5AFjMY0eQjbuY6ODYs=', 'researcher': '张文宇,张林', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000380231', '11000270239'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kFLRR5AFjMY0eQjbuY6ODYs=', 'site': 'China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中诚信国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621024594_1.pdf?1707325044000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621024594_1.pdf?1707325044000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Review of Economic Hot Topics (January 2024)', 'originalAuthor': '张文宇,张林', 'originalContent': '国内经济热点扫描国家数据局等17部门联合印发《“数据要素×”三年行动计划（2024—2026年）》1月4日，国家数据局等17部门近日联合印发《“数据要素×”三年行动计划（2024—2026年）》，旨在充分发挥数据要素乘数效应，赋能经济社会发展。行动计划强调坚持需求牵引、注重实效，试点先行、重点突破，有效市场、有为政府，开放融合、安全有序等4方面基本原则，明确了到2026年底的工作目标。行动计划选取工业制造、现代农业、商贸流通、交通运输、金融服务、科技创新、文化旅游、医疗健康、应急管理、气象服务、城市治理、绿色低碳等12个行业和领域，推动发挥数据要素乘数效应，释放数据要素价值。中国人民银行召开工作会议，部署2024年工作1月4日-5日，中国人民银行工作会议在京召开，总结2023年工作，分析当前形势，部署2024年工作。会议指出，2023年，中国人民银行适时强化逆周期调节，有效防控金融风险，持续深化金融改革，不断扩大金融开放，切实改进金融服务，平稳推进机构改革，全面加强党的建设，各项工作取得新进展、新成效。会议提出，2024年各项任务繁重艰巨，要主动作为、攻坚克难，全力推动金融高质量发展。国务院总理李强召开国务院常务会议，研究发展银发经济1月5日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究发展银发经济、增进老年人福祉的政策举措等。会议强调，发展银发经济是积极应对人口老龄化、推动高质量发展的重要举措，既利当前又惠长远。要切实履行政府保基本、兜底线职责，加强老年人基本民生保障，增加基本公共服务供给。要运用好市场机制，充分发挥各类经营主体和社会组织作用，更好满足老年人多层次多样化需求，共同促进银发经济发展壮大。要持续完善相关政策措施，重点解决好老年人居家养老、就医用药、康养照护等急难愁盼问题，让老年人安享幸福晚年。此外会议指出，春节前是农民工工资结算高峰期。要用心用情做好保障农民工工资支付工作，层层压实责任，加大工作力度，依法坚决打击恶意欠薪行为。要健全完善治理欠薪的长效机制，加强常态化监测评估和检查督促，推动保障农民工工资支付的各项制度和政策落实到位。两部门推出金融举措支持住房租赁市场发展1月5日，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局发布《关于金融支持住房租赁市场发展的意见》，自2024年2月5日起施行。《意见》从加强住房租赁信贷产品和服务模式创新、拓宽住房租赁市场多元化投融资渠道、加强和完善住房租赁金融管理等方面推出17条举措，支持住房租赁市场发展。《意见》明确加大住房租赁开发建设信贷支持力度。支持商业银行向房地产开发企业、工业园区、农村集体经济组织、企事业单位等各类主体依法合规新建、改建长期租赁住房发放住房租赁开发建设贷款。住房租赁开发建设贷款期限一般为3年，最长不超过5年。沪深北交易所进一步规范债券发行业务1月12日，沪深北交易所进一步规范证券发行业务有关事项。交易所主要为进一步提升债券发行规范性水平，严格市场纪律，防止定价不审慎等行为发布此事项，主要强调的事项有债券发行的利率或者价格应当以询价、招标、协议定价等方式确定。发行人不得直接或者间接认购自己发行的债券。发行人不得操纵发行定价、暗箱操作；不得以代持、信托等方式谋取不正当利益或者向其他相关利益主体输送利益；不得直接或者通过其他主体向参与认购的投资者提供财务资助、变相返费；不得出于利益交换的目的通过关联金融机构相互持有彼此发行的债券；不得有其他违反公平竞争、破坏市场秩序等行为。发行人的控股股东、实际控制人不得组织、指使发行人实施前款行为。承销机构应当加强发行业务询价、定价和配售等过程管理，不得存在承诺发行利率、返费等破坏市场秩序的行为。承销机构在债券包销等业务过程中，不得通过场外协议等方式协助开展非市场化发行和交易。2023年全国GDP同比增长5.2%，四季度同比增长5.2%1月17日，国家统计局公布数据：初步核算，2023年全年国内生产总值（GDP）1260582亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长5.2%。分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长4.5%，二季度增长6.3%，三季度增长4.9%，四季度增长5.2%，呈现前低、中高、后稳的态势。按照可比价计算，2023年我国经济增量超过6万亿元，相当于一个中等国家一年的经济总量。从就业看，就业形势总体改善，全年城镇调查失业率平均值比上年下降0.4个百分点，特别是农民工就业形势改善比较明显。从物价看，物价总体保持温和上涨，全年居民消费价格指数（CPI）上涨0.2%，核心CPI上涨0.7%。从国际收支看，全年货物出口增长0.6%，年末外汇储备超过3.2万亿美元。国常会：研究部署推动人工智能赋能新型工业化有关工作1月22日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究全面推进乡村振兴有关举措，研究部署推动人工智能赋能新型工业化有关工作，以及听取资本市场运行情况及工作考虑的汇报等。会议强调，要统筹高质量发展和高水平安全，以人工智能和制造业深度融合为主线，以智能制造为主攻方向，以场景应用为牵引，加快重点行业智能升级，大力发展智能产品，高水平赋能工业制造体系，加快形成新质生产力，为制造强国、网络强国和数字中国建设提供有力支撑。此外会议强调，要进一步健全完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡，大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度，增强市场内在稳定性。要加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，打造规范透明的市场环境。要采取更加有力有效措施，着力稳市场、稳信心。“债券通”债券纳入香港金融管理局人民币流动资金安排合资格抵押品名单1月24日，香港金融管理局宣布将“债券通”北向合作（以下简称北向通）项下的人民币国债、政策性金融债券纳入人民币流动资金安排合资格抵押品名单。截至2023年末，共有1124家境外机构进入中国债券市场，覆盖70多个国家和地区，持有中国债券总量为3.72万亿元人民币，较“债券通”开通前增长340%。此前，香港金融管理局已经将离岸发行的中国国债和政策性金融债券纳入人民币流动资金安排合资格抵押品名单。央行将于2月5日降低存款准备金率1月24日，中国人民银行决定：自2024年2月5日起，下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点（不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构），本次下调后，金融机构加权平均存款准备金率约为7.0%；自2024年1月25日起，分别下调支农再贷款、支小再贷款和再贴现利率各0.25个百分点。城市房地产融资协调机制部署会：加快推动城市房地产融资协调机制落地见效1月26日上午，住房城乡建设部召开城市房地产融资协调机制部署会。会议提出，要坚持因城施策、精准施策、一城一策，用好政策工具箱，充分赋予城市房地产调控自主权，各城市可以因地制宜调整房地产政策。要完善“保障+市场”的住房供应体系，健全房屋全生命周期基础性制度，实施保障性住房建设、平急两用公共基础设施建设、城中村改造等。要纠治房地产开发、交易、中介、物业等方面乱象，曝光违法违规典型案例，切实维护人民群众合法权益。国家统计局发布一月制造业PMI为49.2%1月31日，国家统计局发布一月制造业PMI数据。1月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回升。从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.4%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为48.9%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI为47.2%，比上月下降0.1个百分点，低于临界点。从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数高于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点。', 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'国内经济热点扫描国家数据局等17部门联合印发《“数据要素×”三年行动计划（2024—2026年）》1月4日，国家数据局等17部门近日联合印发《“数据要素×”三年行动计划（2024—2026年）》，旨在充分发挥数据要素乘数效应��赋能经济社会发展。行动计划强调坚持需求牵引、注重实效，试点先行、重点突破，有效市场、有为政府，开放融合、安全有序等4方面基本原则，明确了到2026年底的工作目标。行动计划选取工业制造、现代农业、商贸流通、交通运输、金融服务、科技创新、文化旅游、医疗健康、应急管理、气象服务、城市治理、绿色低碳等12个行业和领域，推动发挥数据要素乘数效应，释放数据要素价值。中国人民银行召开工作会议，部署2024年工作1月4日-5日，中国人民银行工作会议在京召开，总结2023年工作，分析当前形势，部署2024年工作。会议指出，2023年，中国人民银行适时强化逆周期调节，有效防控金融风险，持续深化金融改革，不断扩大金融开放，切实改进金融服务，平稳推进机构改革，全面加强党的建设，各项工作取得新进展、新成效。会议提出，2024年各项任务繁重艰巨，要主动作为、攻坚克难，全力推动金融高质量发展。国务院总理李强召开国务院常务会议，研究发展银发经济1月5日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究发展银发经济、增进老年人福祉的政策举措等。会议强调，发展银发经济是积极应对人口老龄化、推动高质量发展的重要举措，既利当前又惠长远。要切实履行政府保基本、兜底线职责，加强老年人基本民生保障，增加基本公共服务供给。要运用好市场机制，充分发挥各类经营主体和社会组织作用，更好满足老年人多层次多样化需求，共同促进银发经济发展壮大。要持续完善相关政策措施，重点解决好老年人居家养老、就医用药、康养照护等急难愁盼问题，让老年人安享幸福晚年。此外会议指出，春节前是农民工工资结算高峰期。要用心用情做好保障农民工工资支付工作，层层压实责任，加大工作力度，依法坚决打击恶意欠薪行为。要健全完善治理欠薪的长效机制，加强常态化监测评估和检查督促，推动保障农民工工资支付的各项制度和政策落实到位。两部门推出金融举措支持住房租赁市场发展1月5日，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局发布《关于金融支持住房租赁市场发展的意见》，自2024年2月5日起施行。《意见》从加强住房租赁信贷产品和服务模式创新、拓宽住房租赁市场多元化投融资渠道、加强和完善住房租赁金融管理等方面推出17条举措，支持住房租赁市场发展。《意见》明确加大住房租赁开发建设信贷支持力度。支持商业银行向房地产开发企业、工业园区、农村集体经济组织、企事业单位等各类主体依法合规新建、改建长期租赁住房发放住房租赁开发建设贷款。住房租赁开发建设贷款期限一般为3年，最长不超过5年。沪深北交易所进一步规范债券发行业务1月12日，沪深北交易所进一步规范证券发行业务有关事项。交易所主要为进一步提升债券发行规范性水平，严格市场纪律，防止定价不审慎等行为发布此事项，主要强调的事项有债券发行的利率或者价格应当以询价、招标、协议定价等方式确定。发行人不得直接或者间接认购自己发行的债券。发行人不得操纵发行定价、暗箱操作；不得以代持、信托等方式谋取不正当利益或者向其他相关利益主体输送利益；不得直接或者通过其他主体向参与认购的投资者提供财务资助、变相返费；不得出于利益交换的目的通过关联金融机构相互持有彼此发行的债券；不得有其他违反公平竞争、破坏市场秩序等行为。发行人的控股股东、实际控制人不得组织、指使发行人实施前款行为。承销机构应当加强发行业务询价、定价和配售等过程管理，不得存在承诺发行利率、返费等破坏市场秩序的行为。承销机构在债券包销等业务过程中，不得通过场外协议等方式协助开展非市场化发行和交易。2023年全国GDP同比增长5.2%，四季度同比增长5.2%1月17日，国家统计局公布数据：初步核算，2023年全年国内生产总值（GDP）1260582亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长5.2%。分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长4.5%，二季度增长6.3%，三季度增长4.9%，四季度增长5.2%，呈现前低、中高、后稳的态势。按照可比价计算，2023年我国经济增量超过6万亿元，相当于一个中等国家一年的经济总量。从就业看，就业形势总体改善，全年城镇调查失业率平均值比上年下降0.4个百分点，特别是农民工就业形势改善比较明显。从物价看，物价总体保持温和上涨，全年居民消费价格指数（CPI）上涨0.2%，核心CPI上涨0.7%。从国际收支看，全年货物出口增长0.6%，年末外汇储备超过3.2万亿美元。国常会：研究部署推动人工智能赋能新型工业化有关工作1月22日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究全面推进乡村振兴有关举措，研究部署推动人工智能赋能新型工业化有关工作，以及听取资本市场运行情况及工作考虑的汇报等。会议强调，要统筹高质量发展和高水平安全，以人工智能和制造业深度融合为主线，以智能制造为主攻方向，以场景应用为牵引，加快重点行业智能升级，大力发展智能产品，高水平赋能工业制造体系，加快形成新质生产力，为制造强国、网络强国和数字中国建设提供有力支撑。此外会议强调，要进一步健全完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡，大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度，增强市场内在稳定性。要加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，打造规范透明的市场环境。要采取更加有力有效措施，着力稳市场、稳信心。“债券通”债券纳入香港金融管理局人民币流动资金安排合资格抵押品名单1月24日，香港金融管理局宣布将“债券通”北向合作（以下简称北向通）项下的人民币国债、政策性金融债券纳入人民币流动资金安排合资格抵押品名单。截至2023年末，共有1124家境外机构进入中国债券市场，覆盖70多个国家和地区，持有中国债券总量为3.72万亿元人民币，较“债券通”开通前增长340%。此前，香港金融管理局已经将离岸发行的中国国债和政策性金融债券纳入人民币流动资金安排合资格抵押品名单。央行将于2月5日降低存款准备金率1月24日，中国人民银行决定：自2024年2月5日起，下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点（不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构），本次下调后，金融机构加权平均存款准备金率约为7.0%；自2024年1月25日起，分别下调支农再贷款、支小再贷款和再贴现利率各0.25个百分点。城市房地产融资协调机制部署会：加快推动城市房地产融资协调机制落地见效1月26日上午，住房城乡建设部召开城市房地产融资协调机制部署会。会议提出，要坚持因城施策、精准施策、一城一策，用好政策工具箱，充分赋予城市房地产调控自主权，各城市可以因地制宜调整房地产政策。要完善“保障+市场”的住房供应体系，健全房屋全生命周期基础性制度，实施保障性住房建设、平急两用公共基础设施建设、城中村改造等。要纠治房地产开发、交易、中介、物业等方面乱象，曝光违法违规典型案例，切实维护人民群众合法权益。国家统计局发布一月制造业PMI为49.2%1月31日，国家统计局发布一月制造业PMI数据。1月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回升。从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.4%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为48.9%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI为47.2%，比上月下降0.1个百分点，低于临界点。从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数高于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点。', 'authorid': UUID('fa48cda1-db06-5993-9d2f-ae82704e53ad'), 'sentimentScore': 0.10050580278038979, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'QT826PC74EHUH1F1F43BLBEH9JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:27:03 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'QT826PC74EHUH1F1F43BLBEH9JVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('19b33d8d-e9da-5626-8e60-08a6648aa3cd'), 'title': 'Hot comment: Looking at the national economic goals and key tasks of each province in 2024 from the local two sessions', 'author': 'Yuan Haixia, Wang Yuanhui, Liang Yunxi', 'orgName': '中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80002154', 'orgSName': '中诚信国际', 'publishDate': '2024-02-07', 'encodeUrl': 'FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kF86csLZRZ9QvfVGZaQyYOM=', 'researcher': '袁海霞,汪苑晖,梁蕴兮', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000241949', '11000270236', '11000371331'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kF86csLZRZ9QvfVGZaQyYOM=', 'site': 'China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中诚信国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621024591_1.pdf?1707324764000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621024591_1.pdf?1707324764000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Hot comment: Looking at the national economic goals and key tasks of each province in 2024 from the local two sessions', 'originalAuthor': '袁海霞,汪苑晖,梁蕴兮', 'originalContent': '2024年1月以来，地方两会陆续召开，并在政府工作报告中提出了2024年经济指标预期目标和主要发展任务。中央政治局会议提出“稳中求进、以进促稳、先破后立”，如何平衡“稳与进”、“破与立”是2024年经济发展的重点。从各省的工作目标和工作重点来看，我们认为应该关注经济增长目标、各地扩大内需、创新动能持续培育、重点领域风险化解以及财税体制改革等六大方面。一、多省下调2024年经济财政增速目标，建议全国GDP增速目标5%左右各省加权平均GDP目标增速为5.4%，较2023年目标下降0.2个百分点，16省下调、4省上调。2023年31省均实现GDP正增长，增速在2.6%-9.5%之间，加权平均实际增速为5.3%，但仍有17省未完成当年增速目标。从2024年GDP目标增速来看，各省份加权平均目标增速为5.4%，较2023年（5.6%）低0.2个百分点。各省份GDP目标在4.5%-8.0%之间，16省下调GDP目标增速，除广东外均为2023年未完成GDP目标的地区；北京、辽宁、天津、浙江4省上调GDP增速目标：其余11省持平。结合2024年地方两会，我们维持建议2024年全国GDP增速目标“5%”左右。近年来，全国经济增速目标设定通常低于各省加权目标，基本与上海目标增速一致，北京次之。考虑到2024年各省加权GDP目标增速有所下移，且北京、上海、广东均设定经济增速目标为5%，2024年全国目标或仍为5%。同时，我们认为虽然经济延续修复仍面临需求不足、预期偏弱等挑战，但随着房地产等拖累因素有望减轻、工业生产将保持韧性、政策效果有所显现等积极因素支撑，2024年中国经济实现有望实现5%左右的增速，经济增速预测模型与主要经济指标的走势也支持实现该增长目标。', 'content': 'Since January 2024, local two sessions have been held one after another, and the expected economic indicators and main development tasks for 2024 have been proposed in the government work report. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee proposed to \"seek progress while maintaining stability, promote stability through advancement, break first and then build.\" How to balance \"stability and progress\" and \"break and build\" is the focus of economic development in 2024. Judging from the work goals and priorities of each province, we believe that we should focus on six major aspects: economic growth goals, expansion of domestic demand in various regions, continued cultivation of innovation momentum, risk mitigation in key areas, and fiscal and taxation system reform. 1. Many provinces have lowered their economic and fiscal growth targets for 2024. It is recommended that the national GDP growth target be around 5%. The weighted average GDP target growth rate of each province is 5.4%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than the 2023 target. 16 provinces have lowered it and 4 provinces have raised it. In 2023, all 31 provinces will achieve positive GDP growth, with a growth rate between 2.6% and 9.5%, and a weighted average actual growth rate of 5.3%. However, there are still 17 provinces that have not completed the growth target for the year. Judging from the GDP target growth rate in 2024, the weighted average target growth rate of each province is 5.4%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than 2023 (5.6%). The GDP targets of each province are between 4.5% and 8.0%. 16 provinces have lowered their GDP growth targets. Except for Guangdong, they are all regions that have not completed their GDP targets in 2023. Beijing, Liaoning, Tianjin, and Zhejiang have raised their GDP growth targets: The remaining 11 provinces remained unchanged. In conjunction with the local two sessions in 2024, we maintain the recommended 2024 national GDP growth target of around “5%”. In recent years, national economic growth targets have generally been set lower than the weighted targets of each province, basically consistent with Shanghai\\'s target growth rate, followed by Beijing. Considering that the weighted GDP target growth rate of each province in 2024 has been moved downwards, and Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong have all set economic growth targets of 5%, the national target in 2024 may still be 5%. At the same time, we believe that although the continued recovery of the economy still faces challenges such as insufficient demand and weak expectations, with the support of positive factors such as real estate and other drag factors, industrial production will remain resilient, and policy effects are showing, China\\'s economy will achieve growth in 2024 It is expected to achieve a growth rate of about 5%, and the economic growth forecast model and the trend of major economic indicators also support the realization of this growth target.', 'authorid': UUID('87a71a9f-cfef-5c6b-ab93-57a99c92a5f6'), 'sentimentScore': 0.04018995724618435, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'RIRUB3SL2OHBA8R8KKERQGJUARVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:27:05 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'RIRUB3SL2OHBA8R8KKERQGJUARVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9860044a-59ce-5fec-a610-2acfe6f2e933'), 'title': 'No. 68 of the series of \"Knowing the Small Things\": How to track the implementation of steady growth?', 'author': 'Zhao Wei, Zhang Yunjie', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-07', 'encodeUrl': 'FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kFnykOinglYVDhh63amqJtg=', 'researcher': '赵伟,张云杰', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421', '11000369443'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kFnykOinglYVDhh63amqJtg=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621022873_1.pdf?1707322487000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621022873_1.pdf?1707322487000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'No. 68 of the series of \"Knowing the Small Things\": How to track the implementation of steady growth?', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟,张云杰', 'originalContent': '2023年四季度，“万亿国债”、地产“三大工程”等新一轮稳增长落地。基本面已反映哪些变化，后续如何跟踪？一问：“稳增长”三步走落地进展？中央增发国债、准财政放量、产业政策保驾护航第一步：中央财政增发“万亿国债”，2023年12月两批超8000亿元项目清单下达、基建投资增速明显回升。项目清单下达的同时，资金或也在“加速”拨付，2023年12月广义财政支出增速转正至1.3%、基建类财政支出增速升至4.7%。随着资金到位加快，2023年12月水利环境投资同比12.1%、较上月大幅回升15.8个百分点。第二步：“准财政”放量、近两月PSL新增共5000亿元，助力地产“三大工程”加速布局。PSL放量的同时，三大政策行为地方“三大工程”项目频频授信，各地加速布局“三大工程”。2023年11月底，杭州市116个“平急两用”项目率先开工；12月底深圳首批13个配售型保障房项目开工；广州、深圳、上海加快推进城中村改造。第三步：产业政策保驾护航，2024年1月各地加快重大项目开工。2023年7月起工信部连续发布、实施10大行业稳增长方案，预计2024年10大行业工业增加值同比3.9%左右、接近上年两年复合增速的4.1%，工业经济有望保持稳定。产业政策支持下，2024年1月各地重大项目开工投资额5.4万亿元，为2020年以来同期次高。二问：政策落地，基本面如何变化？基建央企订单“爆发”，水利合同金额同比高增建筑业PMI是最早出现积极变化的宏观指标之一，2023年末建筑业景气显著回升、2024年初春节临近指标有所回落。2023年12月，建筑业PMI、从业人员指数分别升至56.9%、51.7%。2024年1月春节临近、建筑业务工人群集中返乡，建筑业PMI、从业人员指数分别回落至53.9%、50.1%。以四川南充为例、春节前20天起城市迁入强度明显走高。企业订单得到印证，2023年末主要基建央企订单“爆发”，尤其是水利合同金额同比高增。2023年12月主要基建央企订单显著放量，当月新签合同额同比增长22.3%、较11月提升10.5个百分点。细分领域上，中国电建水利项目新签合同额明显增长，2023年11、12月当月同比分别为478%、369%，2024年1月保持较快增长、同比72.7%。关注基建、地产相关链条营收、库存变化，“稳增长”落地或能有效提振相关链条终端需求。2023年12月，代表基建央企新开工面积明显回升，建筑业整体新开工面积累计同比-7.8%、较三季度回升3.4个百分点。相应地，2023年12月部分原材料行业营收同比转正至1.1%、加工冶炼行业营收同比降幅收窄至-1.1%三问：高频数据，已传递哪些信号？建筑业新开工“回暖”，大型挖机销量显著反弹冬春季是水利项目施工黄金期，近期大型挖掘机销量大幅反弹，或指向水利施工加快。2023年12月，伴随水利投资增速回升、挖机销量同比较上月大幅提升36个百分点至-1%；其中大型挖机销量涨幅最大，当月同比9.4%，高于中挖和小挖的-2.4%、-4.7%。此外，重大水利工程项目较多的华南地区、灾后重建的华北地区挖机销量涨幅较大。“三大工程”重点布局的超大特大城市，水泥产量等相关指标变化需重点关注。回溯过往，水泥产量增速略领先于房地产投资增速。中性情景下，地产“三大工程”年均投资或在1.2万亿元左右。重点城市中，上海、广东等地推进较快，相关地区的水泥产需变化值得重点关注。2023年12月，上海水泥产量同比0.8%，高于全国的-5.9%。本轮稳增长落地恰逢部分行业“停工”，高频数据反馈暂时较为有限，节后重点关注挖机开工小时、粉磨开工率、水泥出货率、钢铁消费量等数据变化。2023年四季度，挖机平均开工小时数较三季度提升9.2%，水利项目施工已有积极变化。入冬后地产链施工有所放缓，11月起粉磨开工率、水泥出货率等呈现回落，重点关注节后数据变化。风险提示经济复苏不及预期，政策落地效果不及预期。', 'content': 'In the fourth quarter of 2023, a new round of stable growth including the \"trillion treasury bonds\" and the \"three major real estate projects\" will be implemented. What changes have been reflected in the fundamentals, and how to follow up? One question: What is the progress of the three-step implementation of “stable growth”? The first step of the central government’s issuance of additional treasury bonds, quasi-fiscal expansion, and industrial policy protection: the central government’s issuance of additional “trillion treasury bonds”. In December 2023, two batches of project lists exceeding 800 billion yuan were issued, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment picked up significantly. At the same time as the project list is released, funds may also be \"accelerated\" in disbursement. In December 2023, the growth rate of broad fiscal expenditures will turn positive to 1.3%, and the growth rate of infrastructure fiscal expenditures will rise to 4.7%. With the acceleration of the arrival of funds, investment in water conservancy and environment in December 2023 was 12.1% year-on-year, a sharp rebound of 15.8 percentage points from the previous month. The second step: \"quasi-fiscal\" expansion, PSL has increased by a total of 500 billion yuan in the past two months, helping to accelerate the layout of the \"three major real estate projects\". While PSL is increasing its volume, the three major policy actions have frequently granted credit to local “three major projects” projects, and various localities have accelerated the layout of the “three major projects”. By the end of November 2023, 116 \"both leisure and emergency\" projects in Hangzhou were the first to start construction; at the end of December, the first batch of 13 allotment-type affordable housing projects in Shenzhen started construction; Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Shanghai accelerated the transformation of urban villages. The third step: Industrial policies will protect the country and all regions will accelerate the start of major projects in January 2024. Starting from July 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has successively released and implemented plans to stabilize growth in 10 major industries. It is expected that the industrial added value of the 10 major industries in 2024 will be around 3.9% year-on-year, close to the 4.1% compound growth rate of the previous two years. The industrial economy is expected to remain stable. With the support of industrial policies, investment in major projects across various regions in January 2024 was 5.4 trillion yuan, the second highest in the same period since 2020. Second question: How will the fundamentals change after the policy is implemented? Orders from central enterprises in infrastructure construction \"exploded\", and the amount of water conservancy contracts increased year-on-year. The construction industry PMI was one of the first macro indicators to show positive changes. The construction industry boom rebounded significantly at the end of 2023, and the indicators fell back in early 2024 as the Spring Festival approaches. In December 2023, the construction industry PMI and employee index rose to 56.9% and 51.7% respectively. In January 2024, as the Spring Festival approaches and construction workers return home in large numbers, the construction industry PMI and employee index fell to 53.9% and 50.1% respectively. Taking Nanchong, Sichuan as an example, the intensity of urban migration has increased significantly since the 20 days before the Spring Festival. Enterprise orders have been confirmed. At the end of 2023, orders from major infrastructure central enterprises \"exploded\", especially the amount of water conservancy contracts increased year-on-year. In December 2023, orders from major infrastructure central enterprises increased significantly. The value of newly signed contracts that month increased by 22.3% year-on-year, an increase of 10.5 percentage points from November. In terms of subdivisions, the value of newly signed contracts for China Power Construction\\'s water conservancy projects has increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 478% and 369% respectively in November and December 2023. In January 2024, the value of newly signed contracts has maintained rapid growth, at 72.7% year-on-year. Pay attention to the revenue and inventory changes of infrastructure and real estate-related chains. The implementation of \"steady growth\" may effectively boost the terminal demand of related chains. In December 2023, the area of \\u200b\\u200bnewly started construction by state-owned enterprises representing infrastructure construction rebounded significantly. The overall newly started area of \\u200b\\u200b\\u200b\\u200bthe construction industry was -7.8% year-on-year, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from the third quarter. Correspondingly, in December 2023, the revenue of some raw material industries turned positive to 1.1% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline in revenue of the processing and smelting industry narrowed to -1.1%. Third question: What signals have been conveyed by high-frequency data? New starts in the construction industry are \"recovering\", and sales of large excavators have rebounded significantly. Winter and spring are the golden periods for construction of water conservancy projects. Sales of large excavators have rebounded significantly recently, which may point to an acceleration of water conservancy construction. In December 2023, with the recovery of water conservancy investment growth, excavator sales increased significantly by 36 percentage points to -1% year-on-year. Among them, the sales of large excavators increased the most, 9.4% year-on-year that month, which was higher than that of medium-sized excavators and small excavators. -2.4%, -4.7%. In addition, excavator sales increased significantly in South China, where there are many major water conservancy projects, and in North China, which is undergoing post-disaster reconstruction. In the mega-cities where the \"Three Major Projects\" are focused, changes in relevant indicators such as cement output require special attention. Looking back, the growth rate of cement production was slightly ahead of the growth rate of real estate investment. Under the neutral scenario, the average annual investment in the \"three major real estate projects\" may be around 1.2 trillion yuan. Among key cities, Shanghai, Guangdong and other places are advancing rapidly, and the changes in cement production and demand in relevant areas deserve special attention. In December 2023, Shanghai\\'s cement output was 0.8% year-on-year, higher than the national figure of -5.9%. This round of stable growth coincides with the \"shutdown\" in some industries, and high-frequency data feedback is temporarily limited. After the holiday, we will focus on data changes such as excavator operating hours, grinding operating rate, cement shipment rate, and steel consumption. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the average operating hours of excavators increased by 9.2% compared with the third quarter, and there have been positive changes in the construction of water conservancy projects. Construction in the real estate chain has slowed down since winter. Starting from November, the grinding operation rate and cement shipment rate have declined. Focus on changes in post-holiday data. Risks suggest that the economic recovery is not as good as expected and the effect of policy implementation is not as good as expected.', 'authorid': UUID('ff469869-b6c6-5748-a897-a67668ded608'), 'sentimentScore': 0.10178312379866838, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'D64VED2KBRD59TAK1LTHS116GVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:27:08 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'D64VED2KBRD59TAK1LTHS116GVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('cb922022-d32e-5d90-a73b-c6242e8a87ce'), 'title': 'International Macroeconomic Information Biweekly Report', 'author': 'Du Lingxuan, Wang Jialu, Yu Jia, Zhang Jingxin, Yi Cheng, Fang Heyang, Li Zemian', 'orgName': '中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80002154', 'orgSName': '中诚信国际', 'publishDate': '2024-02-07', 'encodeUrl': 'FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kFjH1jA08xzgtlaxv4592PI=', 'researcher': '杜凌轩,王家璐,于嘉,张晶鑫,易成,方菏阳,李泽冕', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000270344', '11000284640', '11000288237', '11000288238', '11000408032', '11000444044', '11000456832'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kFjH1jA08xzgtlaxv4592PI=', 'site': 'China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中诚信国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621021270_1.pdf?1707319528000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621021270_1.pdf?1707319528000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'International Macroeconomic Information Biweekly Report', 'originalAuthor': '杜凌轩,���家璐,于嘉,张晶鑫,易成,方菏阳,李泽冕', 'originalContent': '资讯一览热点评论欧盟领导人达成协议将向乌克兰提供500亿欧元财政援助土耳其央行上调基准利率至45%暗示加息周期结束并预测最低工资上调或推升通胀经济美联储维持利率不变并暗示降息时机未到西班牙提振欧元区2023年经济增长巴西央行连续第五次降息伊朗是欧佩克第三大产油国标普：1月东盟制造业PMI升至50.3五个月来首次扩张2023年泰国经济增长不足2%财政葡萄牙债务占GDP比重自2009年以来首次降至100%以下国际货币基金组织批准再向阿根廷提供47亿美元贷款阿联酋财政部计划在一季度发行价值50亿迪拉姆债券和伊斯兰债券马来西亚调整政府调整各项税收及补贴确保财政平衡政治意大利公布约60亿美元援非计划土耳其批准瑞典加入北约美批准向土希两国出售战斗机缅军政府第五次延长紧急状态选举遥遥无期美英宣布新一轮制裁印尼迁都成败取决于总统大选结果巴前总理伊姆兰·汗被判24年监禁纳瓦兹·谢里夫胜选概率较大国际收支红海船舶改道刺激油轮运费和成品油价格上涨俄罗斯希望面临国际收支压力时能动用金砖国家外汇储备阿联酋2023年FDI增长28%“欧佩克+”原油出口配额增加将推动2024年经济增长南非汇率滑坡股票遭超千亿兰特净卖出11月贸易顺差210亿兰特斯里兰卡将与泰国签署自由贸易协定ESG2023年南非私营部门可再生能源数量激增Transnet重开煤炭线路阿布扎比能源局与国际能源署合作推动阿联酋能源转型主权信用穆迪将卡塔尔主权信用评级由Aa3上调至Aa2展望由正面调至稳定', 'content': 'Information Overview Hot Comments EU leaders reached an agreement to provide 50 billion euros in financial aid to Ukraine. The Turkish Central Bank raised the benchmark interest rate to 45%, signaling the end of the interest rate hike cycle and predicting that the minimum wage increase may push up inflation. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and hinted at the timing of a rate cut. Spain has not yet arrived to boost economic growth in the Eurozone in 2023. Brazil’s central bank cuts interest rates for the fifth consecutive time. Iran is OPEC’s third largest oil producer. S&P: ASEAN manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in January for the first time in five months. Thailand’s economic growth is insufficient in 2023. 2% Fiscal Portugal\\'s debt-to-GDP ratio falls below 100% for the first time since 2009 The IMF approves an additional $4.7 billion in loans to Argentina The UAE Ministry of Finance plans to issue bonds and sukuk worth Dh5 billion in the first quarter Malaysia The government adjusts various taxes and subsidies to ensure fiscal balance. Italy announces about 6 billion US dollars in aid plan for Africa. Turkey approves Sweden\\'s accession to NATO. The United States approves the sale of fighter jets to Turkey and Greece. The Myanmar military government extends the state of emergency for the fifth time. The election is far away. The United States and the United Kingdom announce new plans. The success or failure of a round of sanctions to move Indonesia\\'s capital depends on the outcome of the presidential election. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was sentenced to 24 years in prison. Nawaz Sharif has a higher chance of winning. Balance of payments Red Sea ship diversion stimulates increase in tanker freight and refined oil prices. Russia hopes The foreign exchange reserves of BRICS countries can be used when facing pressure on the balance of payments. The UAE\\'s FDI will grow by 28% in 2023. The \"OPEC+\" crude oil export quota increase will promote economic growth in 2024. South Africa\\'s exchange rate has declined. Stocks have been net sold for more than 100 billion rand in November trade. R21 billion surplus Sri Lanka to sign free trade agreement with Thailand ESG Private sector renewables surge in South Africa in 2023 Transnet reopens coal routes Abu Dhabi Energy Authority partners with IEA to drive UAE energy transition Sovereign credit Moody\\'s puts Qatar sovereign credit The rating was raised from Aa3 to Aa2 and the outlook was raised from positive to stable.', 'authorid': UUID('a2c4b698-a492-5220-beba-42486291b20f'), 'sentimentScore': 0.40408530831336975, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'MBOI6ENULQOOHA55ILJFKUNQSJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:27:11 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'MBOI6ENULQOOHA55ILJFKUNQSJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5d304f34-10cd-546d-9ff8-742c44dd9006'), 'title': 'Macro Comment: If there is too much water, what is the “bottom line” for social financing in the first quarter?', 'author': 'Tao Chuan, Shao Xiang', 'orgName': '东吴证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000031', 'orgSName': '东吴证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-07', 'encodeUrl': 'FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kMXKsrW+S5TaoffOkgbV1A0=', 'researcher': '陶川,邵翔', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000248932', '11000358034'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kMXKsrW+S5TaoffOkgbV1A0=', 'site': 'Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '东吴证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621020859_1.pdf?1707317250000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621020859_1.pdf?1707317250000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Comment: If there is too much water, what is the “bottom line” for social financing in the first quarter?', 'originalAuthor': '陶川,邵翔', 'originalContent': '央行春节前的“救市”举措颇有“兵马未动，粮草先行”的意味——大幅降准50bp、PSL连月投放，万亿资金空间已经打开，问题是如何使用。我们曾提示2024年一季度“开门红”，财政加力的成色尤为重要，同时也离不开流动性宽松与扩信用的再通胀动力，要兼顾防空转与稳增长，一季度的政府债融资与信贷投放量依旧不能少。然而市场已经透露了信贷节奏放缓的信号。1月10年期国债持续下行逼近2.43%，暗示金融数据“开门红”成色不及2023年同期。观察开年以来房企业绩仍未好转，实体经济复苏波动，我们预计1月信贷投放在4.5万亿水平左右，总量同比少增，结构或延续“对公支撑，零售偏弱”局面。同时Wind高频数据显示1月政府债净融资3353亿元，同比少增约3000亿元，新年财政目前还处于“按兵不动”的状态。这意味着实现一季度经济“开门红”，社融（主要是信贷与政府债）存在缺口——为了防止充裕流动性带来的资金空转风险，节后发债与宽信用提速是必要的。那么一季度社融的“底线”是多少？我们以超储率作为主要着眼点，将2023年同期超储率为基准，在政府债做主力的假设下，我们测算2024年一季度新增社融需要加码至13万亿水平以上（2023Q1为14.5万亿），方可兼顾资金防空转与经济稳增长，此时债市或有调整风险；而若新增社融数据同比显著回落，则流动性宽松与经济复苏波动短期均是债市行情延续的助推因素。首先，从多个维度观察，2024年春节前流动性或是近年来最为平稳充裕的一次。一是央行空前庞大的流动性投放：1月以来央行逆回购、MLF存量均高于历史同期，2月初还有降准后的1万亿流动性释放，一季度还有PSL等结构性工具的扩容。二是资金压力在节前可控：临近春节DR007利率波动较小，债市杠杆率高于历史同期运行。三是超储率高于2023年同期：由于1月政府债供给压力缓和，MLF增量续作以及PSL放量，测算2024年1月金融机构超储率为1.5%，高于2023年1月的1.3%，后续依据季节性推算2024年一季度末为1.8%，高于2023年同期的1.7%，反映2024年一季度银行信贷扩张的空间不小。那么，在流动性较为宽松的背景下，后续有哪些手段能扩信用、避免资金空转？从社融角度，信贷与政府债均有出手放量的必要。信贷投放加码，抓手在房地产。一方面，1月24日央行发布会上表明“预计一季度仍然会保持较快的信贷增长”，同时宣布首次设立“信贷市场司”，反映央行对信贷“开门红”依然重视。另一方面，开年的地产政策“雷厉风行”：经营性物业贷政策与城市房地产融资协调机制先后出台，短期地产供需两端均是扩信用的有利抓手。政府债也有前置发行的可能。虽然历史上政府债少有在一季度就大规模放量，但观察2月1日财政部发布会上表态“国债拟靠前安排发行”、“适当增加中央预算内投资规模”，节奏与量均比以前的表述更加积极，释放了一季度财政有望前置发力的信号。同时，类财政工具开年发力明显。2024年1月央行接续投放PSL1500亿元，本轮新增总规模接近2022年9-11月；央行近期还将普惠小微贷款授信额度翻倍扩充至2000万元。“三大工程”、“五篇大文章”对企业中长贷的支撑作用预计持续放大。测算来看，资金防空转下政府债发力或“事半功倍”，而信贷加码的任务有些“繁重”。我们通过五因素法测算金融机构超储率，在其他分项符合季节性变动的假设下，2024年一季度政府债净融资需达到1.7万亿即可使一季度末超储率压降至2023年同期1.7%水平附近，对应一季度总新增社融13万亿水平；而同样条件下一季度新增信贷投放需要达到甚至超过2023年同期水平（10.6万亿）才能通过缴准来消耗较高的超储，意味着信贷投放需要支撑一季度总社���达到2023年同期的“天量”规模，这对于近期要求“投放均衡、平滑波动”的信贷增长是较为吃力的。另外，央行节后也可通过公开市场操作回笼流动性。我们预计2-3月逆回购余额将有所压降；而MLF由于其更强的政策属性，2月及月大幅缩量续作的概率不大。一季度新增社融规模对市场有何变盘？如果新增社融同比连月显著少增，则流动性宽松与实体扩信用偏缓短期均可成为债市行情延续的助推因素。历史上可参照2020年一季度：开年降准50bp后经济临疫情冲击，货币宽松加码，央行加大流动性投放推动利率显著下行，而信贷扩张受到实体需求限制，政府债发力不明显，10年期国债一路下行，直到4月下旬基本面好转、特别国债出台后才触底回升。而另一面，如果一季度社融能够实现“开门红”，则会消耗超储水平使资金面收敛，实体融资景气度也将回升，债市或面临调整压力。历史上可参考2023年一季度，防疫调整后信贷与经济均“开门红”，资金面利率上行，10年期国债收益率在年初回升后震荡。风险提示：政策出台节奏及项目落地放缓导致经济复苏偏慢；海外经济体提前显著进入衰退，国内出口超预期萎缩；一季度信贷投放量、政府债发行量超预期；超储率测算存在误差。', 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'核心观点2023年，全国一般公共预算收入同比增长6.4%、剑除去年留抵退税影响后同比下降1.9%，一般公共预算支出同比增长5.4%；政府性基金预算收入同比下降9.2%、支出同比下降8.4%。2023年回顾1）一般公共预算收入的四大特点：①低基数下一般公共预算收入同比增长，但增速低于年初预算目标、全年少收516亿，剔除留抵退税影响后同比下降：②收入累计同比增速自6月以来逐月回落，剔除留抵退税后连续7月累计同比为负：③税收收入同比增长、占比抬升但仍偏低，非税收入同比下降占比回落：④四大税种合计占比上升至近八成，排名保持稳定，其中增值税改善明显、增速抬升，占比回升至38.3%，企业所得税、个人所得税、消费税同比均下降，占比也均回落；此外，房地产相关税种仍待企稳。2）一般公共预算支出的四大特点：①一般公共预算支出增速同比拾升但仍低于年初预算目标：②支出节奏整体呈“快-慢一快”态势：@社会民生支出占比近四成，基建、科技在下半年集中发力，占比基本保持稳定、合计超三成；④债务付息压力继续加大，支出再超万亿。3）政府性基金预算收支的四大特点：①土地市场疲软拖累下政府性基金预算收入继续下降，较上年进一步减少超七千亿：②土地出让收入占比继续回落，土地财政缺口或超九千亿；③全年各月政府性基金预算收入累计同比增速均为负，但受基数效应及房地产政策调整影响，年内降幅整体呈波动收窄态势：②收入望时下支出同比下降，专项债发行提速带动下半年支出降幅收窄。2024年展望：一系列积极因素支撑下中国经济有望稳步修复，但当前修复基础仍不牢固，面临多重压力，仍需政策加力呵护，积极财政仍是重要发力点，需合理把握政府部门加杠杆空间，建议赤字率3.6%、专项债额度3.7万亿；同时，不断优化财政支出结构，适当向民生领域倾斜、注重提升基建支出资金效益、积极探索促进消费的举措；此外，应继续靠前发力，支出节奏可适当前置，可合理安排国债和地方债发行节奏，加快推动稳增长政策效果及时落地见效。', 'content': 'Core view: In 2023, the national general public budget revenue will increase by 6.4% year-on-year, and will decrease by 1.9% year-on-year after excluding the impact of last year\\'s tax refund. General public budget expenditure will increase by 5.4% year-on-year; government fund budget revenue will decrease by 9.2% year-on-year, and expenditure will decrease by 8.4%. Review of 2023 1) Four major characteristics of general public budget revenue: ① Under a low base, general public budget revenue increased year-on-year, but the growth rate was lower than the budget target at the beginning of the year, and 51.6 billion less was collected throughout the year. After excluding the impact of the tax refund, the year-on-year decrease: ②The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of revenue has declined month by month since June. After excluding the tax refund, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate has been negative for seven consecutive months: ③Tax revenue has increased year-on-year, and its proportion has increased but is still low, while non-tax revenue has declined year-on-year and its proportion has fallen: ④The total proportion of the four major tax categories increased to nearly 80%, and the ranking remained stable. Among them, value-added tax improved significantly, the growth rate increased, and the proportion rose to 38.3%. Corporate income tax, personal income tax, and consumption tax all fell year-on-year, and their proportions also fell; in addition , real estate-related taxes still need to stabilize. 2) Four major characteristics of general public budget expenditures: ① The growth rate of general public budget expenditures has picked up year-on-year but is still lower than the budget target at the beginning of the year: ② The overall expenditure rhythm is in a \"fast-slow-fast\" trend: @social and people\\'s livelihood expenditures account for nearly 40%, infrastructure and technology will focus on efforts in the second half of the year, and the proportion will basically remain stable, totaling more than 30%; ④ Debt interest payment pressure will continue to increase, and expenditure will exceed one trillion. 3) Four major characteristics of government fund budget revenue and expenditure: ① The government fund budget revenue continues to decline due to the weak land market, further decreasing by more than 700 billion compared with the previous year: ② The proportion of land transfer revenue continues to fall, and the land fiscal gap may Over 900 billion; ③ The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of government fund budget revenue in each month of the year was negative, but due to the base effect and real estate policy adjustments, the overall decline during the year showed a fluctuating and narrowing trend: ② Revenue is expected to decline year-on-year. The accelerated issuance of special bonds led to a narrowing of the decline in expenditures in the second half of the year. Outlook for 2024: China\\'s economy is expected to recover steadily under the support of a series of positive factors. However, the current foundation for recovery is still not solid and it is facing multiple pressures. Policies still need to be protected. Active fiscal policy is still an important focus, and government departments need to reasonably grasp the need to step up efforts. Leverage space, it is recommended that the deficit rate be 3.6% and the special debt limit be 3.7 trillion; at the same time, we should continue to optimize the fiscal expenditure structure, appropriately tilt it towards people\\'s livelihood areas, focus on improving the efficiency of infrastructure expenditure, and actively explore measures to promote consumption; in addition, we should continue to take the lead The pace of expenditure can be appropriately advanced, the pace of government bond and local bond issuance can be reasonably arranged, and the effects of policies to stabilize growth can be accelerated and implemented in a timely manner.', 'authorid': UUID('55b08bd3-3b75-5cf5-90c7-6f7056f6e8dc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8861754275858402, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'CD3T2F016KC4DD4AK7GCAFABBNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:27:38 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'CD3T2F016KC4DD4AK7GCAFABBNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('efcd2eb6-3df1-5358-b296-476d07178160'), 'title': 'Research report on the development of innovation trends in China’s digital world platform: based on reality and strengthening reality with virtuality', 'author': 'Enterprise service research group five', 'orgName': '艾瑞股份', 'orgCode': '80365131', 'orgSName': '艾瑞股份', 'publishDate': '2024-02-07', 'encodeUrl': 'FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kFxOtWGTCqwL+z+5PSNpgzk=', 'researcher': '企服研究五组', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000456931'], 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kFxOtWGTCqwL+z+5PSNpgzk=', 'site': 'iResearch', 'originalSite': '艾瑞股份', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621020054_1.pdf?1707316922000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621020054_1.pdf?1707316922000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Research report on the development of innovation trends in China’s digital world platform: based on reality and strengthening reality with virtuality', 'originalAuthor': '企服研究五组', 'originalContent': '源起和本质概念及发展背景：数字世界平台是数实融合的数字载体，构建数字世界与现实世界的交互平台；数字世界平台的发展与互联网的成长相互交织，在以数字资产为核心对象的Web3.0时代开始萌芽的今天，用户逐渐开始掌握自己创作的内容所有权，平台开始重视数字资产的确权、流通交易及价值分配等问题。本质及发展历程：数字世界平台的要素建设均围绕着“人、物、场”的世界构建元素展开，以数字资产为核心要素，构建平台基本要素体系；平台包含元宇宙平台、数字游戏平台、数字藏品平台等产品形态，是该类平台构建的底层基础；目前平台发展仍处于探索期，开始关注数字资产的合规流通。风险与破局核心风险及破局：在国家强监管的制约背景下，平台如何平衡用户需求与监管合规，实现数字资产的合规转移/交易是当前面临的核心风险；因此需要呼吁政府完善数字资产交易规则，并参考行业先行案例，与政府监督引导下的数字资产交易所合作，完善数字资产合规交易机制。其他风险及破局：a)数据存在敏感信息及潜在安全风险，需保障数据安全和用户隐私，提高数字化内容生产质量和效率；b)整体技术发展尚在早期阶段，缺乏成熟商业模式的闭环支撑，需注重虚拟创新的反哺能力，以数字经济强化实体经济；c)人机交互体验不佳，用户付费意愿低，需将平台、用户、企业三方主体联系在一起，实现“相互分享、共同创造”，最终走向“相生相成”的生态闭环阶段。商业模式当前商业模式分析：目前国内数字世界平台商业模式不成熟，且由于受到国情影响，海外成功商业模式难以复制，受数字资产流动阻碍的影响平台经济活力较低，找出一条创新的商业道路尤为迫切。商业模式创新：构建平台经济新范式，实现内容生产及消费自循环的创作者经济。趋势洞察趋势一：“以实为本、以虚强实”，实现数实融合的发展目标；趋势二：重塑数字世界中“人与空间”之间的关系，构建“人与空间”共创、共生的和谐世界；趋势三：把握市场机遇，充分调动数字资产市场活力，推动平台关键技术创新；趋势四：呼吁政府力量加持，宏观政策把握平台发展方向，规范市场秩序，激发市场活力，推动数字世界平台走向成熟的发展阶段。', 'content': 'Origin, essential concept and development background: The digital world platform is a digital carrier that integrates data and reality, building an interactive platform between the digital world and the real world; the development of the digital world platform is intertwined with the growth of the Internet, and in the digital world with digital assets as the core object Today, as the Web 3.0 era begins to sprout, users are gradually beginning to take ownership of the content they create, and platforms are beginning to pay attention to issues such as the confirmation of digital assets, circulation transactions, and value distribution. Essence and development process: The element construction of the digital world platform all revolves around the world construction elements of \"people, objects, and fields\", with digital assets as the core elements to build a system of basic elements of the platform; the platform includes the Yuanverse platform, digital game platform, Product forms such as digital collection platforms are the underlying foundation for the construction of such platforms; currently, the development of the platform is still in the exploratory period, and attention has been paid to the compliant circulation of digital assets. Risks and disruptions Core risks and disruptions: Against the background of strong national supervision, how platforms balance user needs and regulatory compliance to achieve compliant transfers/transactions of digital assets is the core risk currently faced; therefore, the government needs to be called upon to improve digital assets Transaction rules, refer to industry leading cases, and cooperate with digital asset exchanges under the guidance of government supervision to improve the digital asset compliance trading mechanism. Other risks and disruptions: a) Data contains sensitive information and potential security risks, and it is necessary to ensure data security and user privacy, and improve the quality and efficiency of digital content production; b) The overall technology development is still in its early stages and lacks closed-loop support from mature business models. It is necessary to pay attention to the feedback ability of virtual innovation and strengthen the real economy with the digital economy; c) The human-computer interaction experience is poor and users’ willingness to pay is low. It is necessary to connect the three parties of the platform, users, and enterprises to achieve \"mutual sharing and joint creation\" , and finally move towards the ecological closed-loop stage of \"mutual generation and mutual complementation\". Business model Analysis of current business model: The current domestic digital world platform business model is immature, and due to the influence of national conditions, successful overseas business models are difficult to copy. The economic vitality of the platform is low due to the obstacles to the flow of digital assets. Find an innovative business path. Especially urgent. Business model innovation: Build a new paradigm of platform economy and realize a creator economy with self-circulation of content production and consumption. Trend Insights Trend One: \"Put reality first, use virtuality to strengthen reality\" to achieve the development goal of integrating data and reality; Trend Two: Reshape the relationship between \"people and space\" in the digital world and build a shared future of \"people and space\" Create a harmonious world of symbiosis; Trend 3: Seize market opportunities, fully mobilize the vitality of the digital asset market, and promote key technological innovations on the platform; Trend 4: Call for government support, macro policies to grasp the development direction of the platform, standardize market order, and stimulate market vitality. Promote the digital world platform to a mature stage of development.', 'authorid': UUID('90803d9c-e84c-5dfe-a153-c345baa46e10'), 'sentimentScore': 0.09815632738173008, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'IK7E8RE20SOHS3AERVI3GF84PFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:27:41 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'IK7E8RE20SOHS3AERVI3GF84PFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2ff14f69-ada0-5b87-a134-8261e5d00ed6'), 'title': 'Central Bank Operation Daily', 'author': 'Li Mingyu', 'orgName': '新湖期货股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80030099', 'orgSName': '新湖期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-07', 'encodeUrl': 'FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kANZSAR5TeXDWTC7qGZ1Ub0=', 'researcher': '李明玉', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197321'], 'count': 4, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kANZSAR5TeXDWTC7qGZ1Ub0=', 'site': 'Xinhu Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '新湖期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621010758_1.pdf?1707301885000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621010758_1.pdf?1707301885000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Central Bank Operation Daily', 'originalAuthor': '李明玉', 'originalContent': '公开市场操作：2月7日|中国央行：今日进行3960亿元14天期逆回购操作，中标利率为L.95%，与此前平，因今日有5440亿元7天期逆回购到期，当日实现净回笼1480亿元。MLF操作：今日央行无MLF设放与操作，中标利率为2.50%，与此前一致PSL操作：今日央行无PSL设放与操作。TMLF：今日无TMLF到期与操作。国库定存操作：今日无国库定存到期及操作。', 'content': 'Open market operations: February 7 | The Central Bank of China: Today it conducted a 14-day reverse repurchase operation of 396 billion yuan, and the winning interest rate was L.95%, which was the same as before, because there were 544 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations today. During the period, a net withdrawal of 148 billion yuan was achieved on that day. MLF operation: There is no MLF setting or operation by the central bank today, and the winning interest rate is 2.50%, which is consistent with the previous PSL operation: There is no PSL setting or operation by the central bank today. TMLF: There are no TMLF expirations and operations today. Treasury fixed deposit operations: There are no treasury fixed deposit expirations and operations today.', 'authorid': UUID('06615761-5e26-57d2-b056-2b9f0d8913bd'), 'sentimentScore': 0.028555061668157578, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'ADJE2168728PIP0KR5JS2CU4CJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:27:43 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'ADJE2168728PIP0KR5JS2CU4CJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('8dad5750-bb32-58bd-9d5c-acd8d8375d94'), 'title': 'Macro daily: A shares rebound sharply, the market is expected to fluctuate and bottom out', 'author': 'Cai Shaoli, Gao Cong', 'orgName': '华泰期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80055521', 'orgSName': '华泰期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-07', 'encodeUrl': 'FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kEUTGVGOYaf/ob25kC99kKY=', 'researcher': '蔡劭立,高聪', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000304033', '11000304231'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kEUTGVGOYaf/ob25kC99kKY=', 'site': 'Huatai Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华泰期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621009694_1.pdf?1707297538000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621009694_1.pdf?1707297538000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro daily: A shares rebound sharply, the market is expected to fluctuate and bottom out', 'originalAuthor': '蔡劭立,高聪', 'originalContent': '核心观点市场分析做好假期期间风险管理。2月10日到2月17日国内将迎来春节假期，从明确的重大事件和数据来看，今年春节假期风险相较往年偏低，重点关注2月13日美国1月CPI以及2月15日美国1月零售数据，此外，节后关注国内是否调降MLF和LPR利率。从日历效应来看，回溯2011年至2023年，剔除2020年共12个春节样本，假期期间的消费对于农产品中的谷物、软商品、油脂油料有一定支撑，节后首日样本上涨概率接近或>70%；节后首周，在复工复产逻辑驱动下，有色、黑色原料、非金属建材表现相对亮眼；节后首月，黄金表现相对亮眼。市场情绪仍待筑底。2月6日，A股大幅回升，近期国内稳增长组合拳相继出台，一、降准叠加定向降息；二、稳市场预期，国务院国资委表示，将进一步研究把市值管理纳入中央企业负责人业绩考核；三、疏通政策传导渠道，多部委发文支持房地产企业合理融资需求，广州、上海、苏州等地部分松绑限购，加大对民营小微企业信贷支持力度。从1月PMI来看，春节假期对经济的季节性影响开始显现，生产和新订单环比分别上升1.1、0.3个百分点，产成品库存回升1.6个百分点，非制造业PMI回升但弱于季节性，建筑业PMI则出现季节性回落。春节假期带来商品季节性的库存变化周期。在春节假期前，下游工厂和施工项目将逐渐提前放假，节后复工，与此同时，上游成材生产端降幅较低，带来春节前后的库存周期性变化，春节因素对价格的影响甚至能跨越前后两个月，目前呈现供需双弱的局面。国内地产预期持续改善对整体黑色板块有所提振，目前静待微观数据确认。能源方面，2024年一季度累库预期是当前拖累油价的主要逻辑；化工板块芳烃线具有韧性，关注苯乙烯、PX、PTA的机会。农产品目前重点关注南美天气变化，带来的饲料机会。贵金属仍等待降息计价修正完的信号。风险地缘政治风险（能源板块上行风险）；全球经济超预期下行（风险资产下行风险）；美联储超预期收紧（风险资产下行风险）；海外流动性风险冲击（风险资产下行风险）。', 'content': 'Core viewpoints: market analysis and risk management during the holidays. The country will usher in the Spring Festival holiday from February 10 to February 17. Judging from the clear major events and data, the risk of this year’s Spring Festival holiday is lower than in previous years. Focus on the US January CPI on February 13 and February 15 Japanese retail sales data for January in the United States. In addition, after the holiday, attention will be paid to whether the country will cut MLF and LPR interest rates. From the calendar effect, looking back from 2011 to 2023, excluding a total of 12 Spring Festival samples in 2020, consumption during the holiday has certain support for grains, soft commodities, oils and fats in agricultural products, and the probability of sample increases on the first day after the holiday is close to or >70%; in the first week after the holiday, driven by the logic of resumption of work and production, the performance of non-ferrous and black raw materials and non-metallic building materials was relatively bright; in the first month after the holiday, the performance of gold was relatively bright. Market sentiment still needs to bottom out. On February 6, A-shares rebounded sharply. Recently, domestic growth-stabilizing combinations have been introduced one after another. First, RRR cuts plus targeted interest rate cuts; second, to stabilize market expectations. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council stated that it will further study the inclusion of market value management into the performance of central enterprise leaders. Assessment; 3. Clear policy transmission channels. Many ministries and commissions have issued documents to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate companies. Guangzhou, Shanghai, Suzhou and other places have partially relaxed purchase restrictions and increased credit support for private small and micro enterprises. Judging from the January PMI, the seasonal impact of the Spring Festival holiday on the economy began to appear. Production and new orders increased by 1.1 and 0.3 percentage points respectively month-on-month. Finished product inventories rose by 1.6 percentage points. The non-manufacturing PMI rebounded but was weaker than seasonal. The construction PMI showed a seasonal decline. The Spring Festival holiday brings seasonal inventory change cycles for products. Before the Spring Festival holiday, downstream factories and construction projects will gradually take holidays in advance and resume work after the holiday. At the same time, the upstream finished product production end has a lower decline, resulting in cyclical changes in inventory before and after the Spring Festival. The impact of the Spring Festival factor on prices can even exceed In the past two months, supply and demand have been weak. The continued improvement in domestic real estate expectations has boosted the overall black sector, and we are currently waiting for confirmation from micro data. In terms of energy, the expectation of accumulation in the first quarter of 2024 is the main logic currently dragging down oil prices; the aromatics line of the chemical sector is resilient, and attention is paid to opportunities in styrene, PX, and PTA. Agricultural products are currently focusing on the feed opportunities brought about by weather changes in South America. Precious metals are still awaiting signals that interest rate cuts have been corrected. Risks include geopolitical risks (upward risks for the energy sector); unexpected downturns in the global economy (downward risks for risky assets); unexpected tightening by the Federal Reserve (downward risks for risky assets); overseas liquidity risk impacts (downward risks for risky assets).', 'authorid': UUID('1f2a6e53-dc21-5b64-b53e-783c1fe16451'), 'sentimentScore': -0.04997032880783081, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'H7P076LMNVLEF9UVU0DMJM6PVRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:27:45 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'H7P076LMNVLEF9UVU0DMJM6PVRVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('79738e02-325d-5d47-bb4b-fa2f1ad109d9'), 'title': 'Macro: What impact will it have on markets if Trump returns to the White House?', 'author': 'Song Xuetao', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-07', 'encodeUrl': 'FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kO3EyiJmaRyIJ2XQIvtUCJE=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=FRBVfolCTTfZHryB5bn7kO3EyiJmaRyIJ2XQIvtUCJE=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621008222_1.pdf?1707294432000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402071621008222_1.pdf?1707294432000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro: What impact will it have on markets if Trump returns to the White House?', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛', 'originalContent': '2024年美国大选已经正式拉开序幕。如果特朗普再次当选美国总统，对市场会产生什么影响呢？上一次市场对特朗普2016年大选获胜会带来经济灾难的预测大错特错，原因是国会共和党人进行了大规模的减税改革，股市在大选当天暴跌，但第二天就扭转方向、大幅收高。而这一次如果特朗普再次当选，可能不会像第一次任期一样进行大规模的税制改革。可能侧重于维持2025年后失效的个人所得税减税政策，并考虑降低企业所得税税率。特朗普的“保护主义”政策可能对全球贸易格局和经济增长产生影响。特朗普可能会向美联储施加压力，维持较低利率。另外，特朗普可能放松金融和环境领域的监管，但对社交媒体领域可能会执行更严格的监管。在所有影响中，与投资最相关的是美联储希望通过保持政治低调来防止（或至少减少）经济衰退的政策取向，这通常对股市有利。另外特朗普政府的“孤立主义”倾向、对税收的优惠政策和放松金融监管的倾向也对股市有利。风险提示：美国2024年大选结果反转；新总统上台政策不及预期；政策预判存在偏差', 'content': 'The 2024 US election has officially kicked off. If Trump is re-elected as President of the United States, what impact will it have on the market? The last time markets predicted an economic disaster from Trump\\'s 2016 election victory, they were so wrong as congressional Republicans enacted massive tax cuts and stocks plummeted on election day, only to reverse course the next day. , closed sharply higher. And if Trump is re-elected this time, he may not carry out large-scale tax reforms like he did in his first term. It may focus on maintaining the personal income tax reduction policy that will expire after 2025, and consider reducing the corporate income tax rate. Trump’s “protectionist” policies may have an impact on global trade patterns and economic growth. Trump may put pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates lower. In addition, Trump may relax regulations in the financial and environmental fields, but may implement stricter regulations in the social media field. Of all the implications, the most relevant to investing is the Fed\\'s policy orientation to prevent (or at least reduce) a recession by keeping a political low profile, which is generally good for stocks. In addition, the Trump administration\\'s \"isolationist\" tendencies, preferential tax policies and loosening of financial regulations are also beneficial to the stock market. Risk warning: The results of the 2024 U.S. election will be reversed; the new president’s policies will fall short of expectations; policy predictions will be biased', 'authorid': UUID('e546a080-7eae-5a16-8b31-ee315393fe93'), 'sentimentScore': -0.884932741522789, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'FNS3SCJ07R3NU7S7UP3VCHP87FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:27:48 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'FNS3SCJ07R3NU7S7UP3VCHP87FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('4ec58453-eed4-564a-bf9c-377aee49f2f4'), 'title': 'ESG Comment Report: The \"Interim Regulations on Carbon Emissions Trading Management\" are promulgated, and the activity of carbon market transactions is expected to increase', 'author': 'Xie Xuecheng, Xiao Zhimin, Ma Zongming', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/i6L2d+WKrtS0B2FG2cXUcY=', 'researcher': '解学成,肖志敏,马宗明', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000172781', '11000447631', '11000447632'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/i6L2d+WKrtS0B2FG2cXUcY=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620971392_1.pdf?1707253852000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620971392_1.pdf?1707253852000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'ESG Comment Report: The \"Interim Regulations on Carbon Emissions Trading Management\" are promulgated, and the activity of carbon market transactions is expected to increase', 'originalAuthor': '解学成,肖志敏,马宗明', 'originalContent': '核心观点：事件：2024年2月4日晚，国务院颁布《碳排放权交易管理暂行条例》（下称《条例》）。该条例成为中国碳市场管理的最新上位法。根据国务院规定，《条例》自2024年5月1日起生效。《条例》的出台有效提升了立法层级，为全国碳排放权交易市场运行管理提供明确法律依据。《条例》首次以行政法规的形式明确了碳排放权市场交易制度，为全国碳排放权交易市场运行管理提供明确法律依据，提高了全国碳排放权交易市场立法层级，保障和促进其健康发展。进一步明确不同主体的职能分工和权责要求，确保各项工作高效衔接。《条例》明确指出各级主管部门、监督管理部门、交易机构、技术服务机构、重点排放单位以及符合国家有关规定的其他主体等在碳排放权交易及相关活动中的职能工作与权责划分，各主体清晰了解自身在碳排放权交易市场中的职责，由此减少了工作重叠和管理漏洞，从而推动碳排放权交易管理体系高效运转。提升数据质量法治化管理水平，严格审查机制，对违规方问责惩处力度显著加大。《条例》对数据质量相关违法违规行为明确了没收违法所得、罚款、核减下一年度配额、责令停产整治、取消资质、限制从业等法律责任。相较于《碳排放权交易管理办法（试行）》，《条例》的行政处罚力度大幅提升，强化了对违法违规行为的规范约束，强调了其法律责任，防止重点排放单位数据造假，保障碳排放数据质量。与有关部门实现信息共享，同时注重面向社会信息公开。《条例》明确要求，国务院生态环境主管部门建立全国碳排放权交易市场管理平台，加强对碳排放配额分配、清缴以及重点排放单位温室气体排放情况等的全过程监督管理，并与国务院有关部门实现信息共享。在我们看来，通过与其他有关部门实现信息共享，国务院生态环境主管部门可以获得全面准确、及时更新的相关数据，涵盖了不同领域的碳排放信息，为制定与完善政策法规提供数据支撑，从而更好地应对气候变化的挑战。《条例》的颁布有助于提高碳市场交易活跃度，发现碳价格。我们认为，《条例》的颁布对于中国碳市场交易的健康发展具有深远影响，不仅为市场运行提供了法律保障，还通过建立严格的监管体系和制度框架，增强了市场的稳定性和效率，预期会提高碳市场交易活跃度，未来碳价格有望提高。风险提示：《条例》实施不及预期的风险、CEA价格不及预期的风险。', 'content': 'Core point of view: Event: On the evening of February 4, 2024, the State Council promulgated the \"Interim Regulations on the Management of Carbon Emissions Trading\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Regulations\"). This regulation has become the latest governing law for China’s carbon market management. According to the regulations of the State Council, the \"Regulations\" will take effect from May 1, 2024. The promulgation of the Regulations has effectively upgraded the legislative level and provided a clear legal basis for the operation and management of the national carbon emissions trading market. The \"Regulations\" clarified the carbon emissions market trading system in the form of administrative regulations for the first time, providing a clear legal basis for the operation and management of the national carbon emissions trading market, raising the legislative level of the national carbon emissions trading market, and ensuring and promoting its healthy development. Further clarify the functional division of labor and rights and responsibilities of different entities to ensure the efficient connection of various tasks. The Regulations clearly point out the functional work and division of powers and responsibilities of competent authorities at all levels, regulatory authorities, trading institutions, technical service institutions, key emission units and other entities that comply with relevant national regulations in carbon emissions trading and related activities. Each entity clearly understands its responsibilities in the carbon emissions trading market, thereby reducing work overlap and management loopholes, thus promoting the efficient operation of the carbon emissions trading management system. Improve the legal management level of data quality, strictly review the mechanism, and significantly increase the accountability and punishment of violators. The \"Regulations\" clarify legal responsibilities for illegal activities related to data quality such as confiscation of illegal gains, fines, reduction of quotas for the next year, orders to stop production for rectification, cancellation of qualifications, and restrictions on employment. Compared with the \"Carbon Emissions Trading Management Measures (Trial)\", the \"Regulations\" have significantly increased the intensity of administrative penalties, strengthened the normative constraints on violations of laws and regulations, emphasized their legal responsibilities, prevented key emission units from falsifying data, and ensured carbon emissions. Emissions data quality. Achieve information sharing with relevant departments and focus on public information disclosure. The \"Regulations\" clearly require that the ecological environment department of the State Council establish a national carbon emissions trading market management platform, strengthen the supervision and management of the entire process of carbon emission quota allocation, settlement, and greenhouse gas emissions of key emission units, and cooperate with relevant departments of the State Council Enable information sharing. In our view, by sharing information with other relevant departments, the ecological environment department of the State Council can obtain comprehensive, accurate and timely updated relevant data, covering carbon emission information in different fields, and provide data support for the formulation and improvement of policies and regulations, thereby Better respond to the challenge of climate change. The promulgation of the Regulations will help increase the activity of carbon market transactions and discover carbon prices. We believe that the promulgation of the Regulations will have a profound impact on the healthy development of China\\'s carbon market transactions. It not only provides legal protection for market operations, but also enhances the stability and efficiency of the market by establishing a strict regulatory system and institutional framework. It is expected that It will increase the activity of carbon market transactions, and carbon prices are expected to increase in the future. Risk warning: There is a risk that the implementation of the Regulations will not be as good as expected, and the CEA price will be less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('d8875296-2ffa-5c22-9a14-badeb3db625c'), 'sentimentScore': 0.46587999537587166, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '04EF1NBQ0Q2RJM1NQ0A6IOASANVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:27:51 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '04EF1NBQ0Q2RJM1NQ0A6IOASANVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('389959c2-134f-564b-bdd9-e6ced099e5db'), 'title': 'Macro topic: Reconstruction and deconstruction of the global industrial chain under the flow of commodities and capital', 'author': 'Ye Fan,Wang Runmeng', 'orgName': '西南证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000296', 'orgSName': '西南证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/p/iFbmRPScxIEyGKwjtj28=', 'researcher': '叶凡,王润梦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000263735', '11000418732'], 'count': 12, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/p/iFbmRPScxIEyGKwjtj28=', 'site': 'Southwest Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '西南证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620956342_1.pdf?1707241754000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620956342_1.pdf?1707241754000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro topic: Reconstruction and deconstruction of the global industrial chain under the flow of commodities and capital', 'originalAuthor': '叶凡,王润梦', 'originalContent': '摘要商品流动：从对外贸易的角度。如果用进出口总额占GDP的比重来衡量一国经济对外贸易依存度，近30年不同收入水平的国家和地区的外贸依存度变化差别较大。全球外贸占GDP的比重在2009年后逐渐下行，高收入水平国家或地区，1970年后外贸依存度基本处于波动上行趋势，中等收入水平国家和地区，1986年至2008年外贸依存度持续上升，但之后波动下行，高收入国家与中等和低收入国家在2008年之后，外贸依存度呈现不同趋势变化，另外在中等收入国家中，越南、墨西哥在2010年后，外贸总额占GDP的比重呈现与其他主要新兴市场国家不同的上行趋势。2010年后我国与美国、欧洲等主要出口目的地的贸易份额有所下降，而东盟、俄罗斯以及非洲的占比逐渐上升；美国进口贸易友岸化和近岸化特点逐渐突出；越南向美国、中国和欧盟出口量最多。产品方面，2020年后，我国进口机电产品占比持续回落，上游商品进口回升，新三样的出口占比提升，机电产品出口占比较稳定。资本流动：宏观及微观视角。从FDI来看，全球FDI占GDP的比重自2007年之后波动下滑，整体与全球贸易的趋势一致，主要由发达国家引领。近年，FDI流入发展中国家的分布明显不均。疫情前，全球外商投资占比的下行，已成为既定趋势，主导因素除了自动化程度的提高、技术进步之后，逆全球化趋势、地缘政治局势的因素影响更重要，这也就使得外商直接投资的碎片化和局部化程度更高。从战略FDI看，2019年开始，流向亚洲国家的战略FDI下降，2021年后略有回升，但幅度较小，相比之下，流向美国和欧洲的战略投资更具弹性。从跨国公司看，自动化和数字技术应用推动的生产本地化促使全球价值链演进的动力机制由成本驱动转向知识和创新驱动，使得全球生产和贸易趋向集中，产业链供应链更短以及地域分布更加集中，大多跨国公司调整其产业链布局，东南亚和南美是转移重点。产业链变化之对于通胀和方向。疫情后产业链供应链阻塞可以解释约一半的通胀上行，数字技术开启了新一轮科技革命，并走向大规模商业化应用��对全球产业链带来越来越重要的影响。全球产业链正在塑造新的格局，在此背景下，未来有三方面的趋势：区域化趋势愈发加强；数字技术在重塑全球产业链的参与程度明显提高；通胀在全球产业链重构的过程中或发生结构性变化。风险提示：地缘政治风险超预期，全球经济增长低于预期。', 'content': \"Abstract Commodity Movements: A Foreign Trade Perspective. If the ratio of total import and export to GDP is used to measure a country's economic dependence on foreign trade, the changes in foreign trade dependence of countries and regions with different income levels in the past 30 years have been quite different. The proportion of global foreign trade in GDP gradually declined after 2009. In high-income countries or regions, foreign trade dependence was basically on an upward trend after 1970. In middle-income countries and regions, foreign trade dependence continued to rise from 1986 to 2008. But then the fluctuations declined. After 2008, high-income countries and middle- and low-income countries showed different trends in foreign trade dependence. In addition, among middle-income countries, after 2010, the proportion of total foreign trade in GDP of Vietnam and Mexico showed a similar trend. Different upward trends in other major emerging market countries. After 2010, my country's trade share with major export destinations such as the United States and Europe has declined, while the proportions of ASEAN, Russia, and Africa have gradually increased; the characteristics of friendly and near-shored import trade in the United States have gradually become more prominent; Vietnam's exports to the United States, China and the EU export the most. In terms of products, after 2020, the proportion of my country's imported mechanical and electrical products will continue to fall, the import of upstream commodities will rebound, the proportion of exports of new three types will increase, and the proportion of exports of mechanical and electrical products will be relatively stable. Capital flows: Macro and micro perspectives. From the perspective of FDI, the proportion of global FDI in GDP has fluctuated and declined since 2007. The overall trend is consistent with the trend of global trade, mainly led by developed countries. In recent years, the distribution of FDI inflows to developing countries has been significantly uneven. Before the epidemic, the decline in the proportion of global foreign investment had become an established trend. In addition to the improvement of automation and technological progress, the leading factors were the anti-globalization trend and the geopolitical situation. This also made the impact of foreign direct investment more important. Greater fragmentation and localization. From the perspective of strategic FDI, strategic FDI flows to Asian countries have declined since 2019, and have picked up slightly after 2021, but the magnitude is smaller. In comparison, strategic investment flows to the United States and Europe are more elastic. From the perspective of multinational companies, the localization of production driven by the application of automation and digital technology has caused the dynamic mechanism of the evolution of the global value chain to shift from cost-driven to knowledge- and innovation-driven, making global production and trade more concentrated, with shorter industrial and supply chains and more geographical distribution. Concentration, most multinational companies adjust their industrial chain layout, Southeast Asia and South America are the focus of transfer. Changes in the industrial chain affect inflation and direction. The blockage of industrial and supply chains after the epidemic can explain about half of the upward inflation. Digital technology has opened a new round of scientific and technological revolution and is moving towards large-scale commercial application, which has an increasingly important impact on the global industrial chain. The global industrial chain is shaping a new pattern. Against this background, there are three trends in the future: the trend of regionalization is getting stronger; the participation of digital technology in reshaping the global industrial chain has increased significantly; inflation is playing a role in the process of restructuring the global industrial chain. Structural changes may occur. Risk warning: Geopolitical risks are higher than expected, and global economic growth is lower than expected.\", 'authorid': UUID('457aed38-bfad-56d3-8df4-9d7adc36c1ca'), 'sentimentScore': -0.26545532047748566, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'U2LVG2K1LFEJJA7H643NU91PKVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:27:54 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'U2LVG2K1LFEJJA7H643NU91PKVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('fa0dd881-5beb-5a26-852d-77fb7b560cb2'), 'title': 'Weekly observation on risk pricing of major asset classes: the second week of February 24', 'author': 'Song Xuetao, Lin Yan', 'orgName': '天风证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000124', 'orgSName': '天风证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/t9n5NV37GomvJOeOLERBXI=', 'researcher': '宋雪涛,林彦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000259658', '11000425634'], 'count': 19, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/t9n5NV37GomvJOeOLERBXI=', 'site': 'Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '天风证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620956335_1.pdf?1707241425000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620956335_1.pdf?1707241425000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly observation on risk pricing of major asset classes: the second week of February 24', 'originalAuthor': '宋雪涛,林彦', 'originalContent': '2月第1周各类资产表现：2月第1周（1月29日-2月4日，下同），美股三大指数普遍上涨。Wind全A下跌9.27%，日均成交下跌至7557亿元。30个一级行业全线下跌；轻工制造、计算机和综合表现靠后。信用债指数上升0.31%，国债指数上涨0.56%。风险提示：地缘冲突进一步升级；经济复苏斜率不及预期；货币政策超预期收紧', 'content': \"Performance of various assets in the first week of February: In the first week of February (January 29-February 4, the same below), the three major U.S. stock indexes generally rose. Wind's all-A fell 9.27%, and the average daily turnover fell to 755.7 billion yuan. All 30 first-level industries fell; light manufacturing, computers and comprehensive performance lagged behind. The credit bond index rose 0.31% and the government bond index rose 0.56%. Risk warning: geopolitical conflicts further escalate; economic recovery slope is lower than expected; monetary policy tightens beyond expectations\", 'authorid': UUID('36e3252c-e8b8-57b7-8761-bedbc96e9406'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9591306066140532, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'K09Q8RH5NV0ML387D9U1LJF57BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:27:56 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'K09Q8RH5NV0ML387D9U1LJF57BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('54740d07-7e12-51c9-be4c-100dfeff7674'), 'title': 'Weekly Economic Observation: How will the market adjust?', 'author': 'Yuan Fang , Shu Jiapei', 'orgName': '国投证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80084302', 'orgSName': '国投证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/lStgevTzwTRkSirZuSSs6g=', 'researcher': '袁方,束加沛', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000337134', '11000370131'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/lStgevTzwTRkSirZuSSs6g=', 'site': 'SDIC Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620951393_1.pdf?1707237478000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620951393_1.pdf?1707237478000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Weekly Economic Observation: How will the market adjust?', 'originalAuthor': '袁方,束加沛', 'originalContent': '1月的PMI数据显示，尽管制造业部门出现供应的小幅扩张，但需求收缩的局面仍然在延续。房地产行业持续减速，消费和服务业的恢复缓慢，经济活动的企稳需要耐心等待。近期权益市场的加速下跌可能与流动性压力有关。伴随市场的调整以及政策的介入，一些交易性因素对市场的冲击未来有望逐步减弱。但市场最终的底部仍然取决于经济基本面的走向，这意味着市场仍然处于寻底的过程中。从近期的数据来看，美国经济表现出较高韧性，劳动力供应偏紧与工资价格抬升的正反馈仍在延续，居民部门资产负债表健康，企业投资意愿恢复，美国经济在软着陆的过程中。风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险（2）政策出台超预期', 'content': 'PMI data for January showed that despite a slight expansion of supply in the manufacturing sector, the contraction in demand continued. The real estate industry continues to slow down, the recovery of consumption and service industries is slow, and the stabilization of economic activities requires patience. The recent accelerated decline in equity markets may be related to liquidity pressures. With market adjustments and policy intervention, the impact of some transactional factors on the market is expected to gradually weaken in the future. But the final bottom of the market still depends on the direction of economic fundamentals, which means that the market is still in the process of finding a bottom. Judging from recent data, the U.S. economy has shown high resilience. The positive feedback of tight labor supply and rising wages and prices continues. The balance sheet of the household sector is healthy, and corporate investment willingness has recovered. The U.S. economy is in the process of a soft landing. . Risk warning: (1) Geopolitical risks (2) Policy introduction exceeds expectations', 'authorid': UUID('66c81f3c-61e1-5d1f-95e1-6739dac1004e'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9401461333036423, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'II18CJBB3PUAK1TRLVVQDFBDGNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:27:58 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'II18CJBB3PUAK1TRLVVQDFBDGNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('d4608800-3a63-578a-a73c-d86f6f884371'), 'title': 'Employment data beats expectations, first interest rate cut delayed to May', 'author': 'Yu Qi', 'orgName': '致富证券', 'orgCode': '80102269', 'orgSName': '致富证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/kU+DoXs3sTLBzi7Lqt8pVs=', 'researcher': '余琦', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000352833'], 'count': 5, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/kU+DoXs3sTLBzi7Lqt8pVs=', 'site': 'CHIEF SECURITIES', 'originalSite': '致富证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620915465_1.pdf?1707216221000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620915465_1.pdf?1707216221000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Employment data beats expectations, first interest rate cut delayed to May', 'originalAuthor': '余琦', 'originalContent': '事件：2024年1月美国新增非农就业人数为35.3万人（上月新增由21.6万大幅上调至33.3万人，市场预期增加18.5万人）；失业率为3.7%（上月3.7%，市场预期3.8%）；劳动参与率62.5%（上月62.5%，市场预期62.8%）；平均时薪同比上涨4.5%（上月上涨4.3%，市场预期上涨4.1%），环比上涨0.6%（上月上涨0.4%，市场预期上涨0.3%）。点评：1、1月美国非农新增就业人数35.3万人，大幅高于市场预期18.5万人，远超过去12个月均值25.5万人，创2023年2月以来最大增幅。同时，1月失业率3.7%低于市场预期3.8%，平均时薪同比上涨4.5%高于市场预期4.1%，美国就业市场总体表现强劲。2、1月美国非农新增就业人数主要来源依然是服务业，相比上月新增28.9万人。具体来看，教育保健行业增加11.2万人，商业服务业相比上月增加7.4万人，贸易运输公用行业增加6.4万人，政府部门增加3.6万人，信息咨询业增加1.5万人，休闲住宿行业增加1.1万人。此外，建筑业新增1.1万人，制造业新增2.3万人。3、美国劳动力市场已经完全恢复至疫情之前水平，12月非农就业人数总计1.577亿，相比2020年2月增加517.7万人，增幅为3.39%。从分项数据来看，只有休闲住宿行业相比疫情前仍存在0.54%的小幅缺口，其他大部分行业的就业人数都已经超过疫情前水平。具体来看，商业服务相比2019年同期增加150.9万人，增幅为7.03%；教育医疗相比疫情前增加137.8万人，增幅为5.61%；建筑业相比疫情前增加48.9万人，增幅为6.39%；制造业相比疫情前增加18万人，增幅为1.41%；政府部门相比疫情前增加25.6万人，增幅为1.12%；贸易、运输和能源行业相比疫情前增加4.9万人，增幅为0.31%。', 'content': 'Event: The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in January 2024 was 353,000 (the number of new jobs last month was significantly increased from 216,000 to 333,000, and the market expected an increase of 185,000); the unemployment rate was 3.7% (3.7% last month) , the market expected 3.8%); the labor participation rate was 62.5% (62.5% last month, the market expected 62.8%); the average hourly wage increased 4.5% year-on-year (up 4.3% last month, the market expected an increase 4.1%), up 0.6% month-on-month ( It rose 0.4% last month, and the market expected a rise of 0.3%). Comment: 1. The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in January was 353,000, significantly higher than market expectations of 185,000, far exceeding the average of 255,000 in the past 12 months, the largest increase since February 2023. At the same time, the unemployment rate in January was 3.7% lower than market expectations of 3.8%, and average hourly earnings rose 4.5% year-on-year, higher than market expectations of 4.1%. The overall performance of the U.S. job market was strong. 2. The main source of new non-agricultural employment in the United States in January was still the service industry, with an increase of 289,000 compared to the previous month. Specifically, the education and health care industry increased by 112,000 people, the commercial service industry increased by 74,000 people compared with the previous month, the trade, transportation and public utility industry increased by 64,000 people, the government departments increased by 36,000 people, the information consulting industry increased by 15,000 people, and the leisure and accommodation industry increased by 15,000 people. The industry added 11,000 people. In addition, the construction industry added 11,000 people and the manufacturing industry added 23,000 people. 3. The U.S. labor market has fully recovered to pre-epidemic levels. Non-farm employment totaled 157.7 million in December, an increase of 5.177 million or 3.39% compared to February 2020. Judging from the sub-data, only the leisure accommodation industry still has a small gap of 0.54% compared with before the epidemic, and the number of employees in most other industries has exceeded the pre-epidemic level. Specifically, compared with the same period in 2019, commercial services increased by 1.509 million people, an increase of 7.03%; education and medical services increased by 1.378 million people, an increase of 5.61% compared with before the epidemic; the construction industry increased by 489,000 people compared with before the epidemic, an increase of 5.61%. 6.39%; the manufacturing industry increased by 180,000 people compared with before the epidemic, an increase of 1.41%; the government sector increased by 256,000 people compared with before the epidemic, an increase of 1.12%; the trade, transportation and energy industries increased by 49,000 compared with before the epidemic, The increase was 0.31%.', 'authorid': UUID('591fee66-cf6b-525f-a7bd-20c63c98a0b9'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9245328046381474, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '45Q1HV3AL3FRC73DA5E6B8O5P3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:28:01 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '45Q1HV3AL3FRC73DA5E6B8O5P3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('2e369759-1c32-5382-9b0a-dec6dcf0bfe8'), 'title': 'Policy Monthly Report No. 6: How to balance risk prevention vs. stable growth?', 'author': 'Zhao Wei', 'orgName': '国金证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '10000082', 'orgSName': '国金证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/ulwKpqyejKtEHASLBI3w8g=', 'researcher': '赵伟', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000197421'], 'count': 21, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/ulwKpqyejKtEHASLBI3w8g=', 'site': 'China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国金证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620914146_1.pdf?1707214984000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620914146_1.pdf?1707214984000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Policy Monthly Report No. 6: How to balance risk prevention vs. stable growth?', 'originalAuthor': '赵伟', 'originalContent': '2024年，经济在稳增长与防风险两大主线任务间，如何寻求新平衡与新驱动？本文梳理，可供参考。一、2024地方防风险与稳增长两大任务或需平衡地方“两会”召开完毕，稳增长与防风险为当前两大重点任务。2024年，31省市加权平均GDP目标增速为5.4%、较2023年可比口径下调近0.2个百分点、但高于2023年全国GDP实际增速增长0.2个百分点，地方稳增长压力依旧。同时多地政府工作报告对防风险强调及特殊再融资债的重启发行均指向，地方债务化解亦是重点任务之一。2024年实现稳增长与防风险两大任务或需寻求新平衡与新驱动。其一，方向平衡：稳投资或需寻找“新驱动”，产业类投资或是重点加码领域。其二，地域平衡：重点化债省市推进化债工作的同时，经济大省或需承担更多“稳增长”职责。其三，央地平衡：地方投资意愿和能力或受化债影响下，中央或需在资金、项目端共同加码、助力稳增长。二、方向平衡：产业发展为首，注重激发民间投资活力方向上，为了平衡防风险和稳增长，产业发展或将置于首位，以进一步激活民间投资。2023年底以来，多省份首次召开推进新型工业化大会，提出打造先进制造业集群等；2024年多地政府工作报告亦显示，地方对产业发展重视度进一步提升，多地基于优势产业进一步部署升级转型，更多强调加快发展数字经济、加快提升现代服务业等。产业发展类项目不仅有利于培养地方长期“造血能力”，亦可有效带动民间投资。地方重大项目数据显示，与基建类项目相比，产业发展类项目民间资本参与比例更高；2021年���夏重大产业类项目中银行贷款等社会资金占比近六成。且从长期视角看，地方产业发展类项目建设有利于激发地方经济发展活力，增强其债务偿付能力。三、地域平衡：经济大省和重点化债地区或“各尽其责”地域间，经济大省与重点化债省市或需“各尽其责”，经济大省需更多承担稳增长职责，重点化债省市则更注重防风险，深入化债的同时严防新增隐债。“经济大省要真正挑起大梁”指引下，2024年初部分经济大省开年即开工重大项目；江苏、广东等经济大省年初重大项目中基建类项目占比较过往明显提升，或指向经济大省承担更多基建投资。相比之下，重点化债省市重心则在防风险，投资端更注重通过推介项目吸引民间资本参与。经济大省和重点化债省市“各尽其责”下，财政资源分配亦侧重不同，地方新增专项债等或更多倾向经济大省，特殊再融资债额度等或更多投向重点化债地区。当前，一季度专项债新券发行超7700亿元、主要分布于山东、四川、浙江等经济大省；再融资券超7700亿元，其中贵州再融资债发行规模超900亿元、明显高于2023年同期。四、央地平衡：地方化债中央加码，资金项目两端或齐发力央地之间，2024年地方“修养生息”下，中央或需在资金项目两端共同加码。相较于地方，我国中央政府宏观杠杆率较低、加码空间较大；2023年10月下旬中央调增赤字预算增发万亿元国债、将赤字率提升至3.8%，2023年12月起PSL重启放量等或均指向本轮中央“加杠杆”已然开启，后续财政发力结构或进一步调整。中央“加杠杆”开启下，有效的项目抓手也是影响实物工作量的重要因素之一。地方财政审计显示，2022年超九成地区项目落地存在问题。因此，资金端之外，项目端或亦需加快部署推进。当前，“三大工程”、“东数西算”等国家级规划项目和“十四五”相关的优质项目或需加快做好项目前期准备，以有效承接财政资金，加快形成实物工作量。风险提示:经济复苏不及预期，政策落地效果不及预期。', 'content': 'In 2024, how can the economy find a new balance and new drivers between the two main tasks of stabilizing growth and preventing risks? This article is summarized for reference. 1. In 2024, the two major tasks of preventing risks and stabilizing growth may need to be balanced. The local \"Two Sessions\" have been convened. Stabilizing growth and preventing risks are the two current key tasks. In 2024, the weighted average GDP target growth rate of 31 provinces and cities is 5.4%, which is nearly 0.2 percentage points lower than the comparable standard in 2023, but 0.2 percentage points higher than the actual national GDP growth rate in 2023. Local governments still have pressure to stabilize growth. At the same time, government work reports in many places have emphasized risk prevention and the resumption of issuance of special refinancing bonds, and local debt resolution is also one of the key tasks. To achieve the two major tasks of stabilizing growth and preventing risks in 2024, we may need to find a new balance and new drivers. First, the direction is balanced: to stabilize investment, we may need to find \"new drivers\", and industrial investment may be a key area to increase investment. Second, geographical balance: While focusing on debt-prone provinces and cities to promote debt reduction, provinces with large economies may need to assume more responsibilities for “stabilizing growth.” Third, the balance between the central and local governments: The willingness and ability of local governments to invest may be affected by the debt reduction, and the central government may need to jointly increase funding and projects to help stabilize growth. 2. Balanced direction: Industrial development is the first priority and emphasis is placed on stimulating the vitality of private investment. In order to balance risk prevention and stable growth, industrial development may be given top priority to further activate private investment. Since the end of 2023, many provinces have held conferences on promoting new industrialization for the first time, proposing the creation of advanced manufacturing clusters; the 2024 government work reports of many places also show that local governments have further increased their emphasis on industrial development, and many places have further deployed upgrading and transformation based on advantageous industries. More emphasis is placed on accelerating the development of the digital economy and accelerating the improvement of the modern service industry. Industrial development projects are not only conducive to cultivating local long-term \"hematopoietic capabilities\", but can also effectively drive private investment. Data on major local projects show that compared with infrastructure projects, industrial development projects have a higher proportion of private capital participation; in 2021, bank loans and other social funds accounted for nearly 60% of Ningxia\\'s major industrial projects. And from a long-term perspective, the construction of local industrial development projects is conducive to stimulating the vitality of local economic development and enhancing its debt solvency. 3. Geographical balance: Between the economically large provinces and the key indebted areas, or \"each has its own responsibilities\", the economically large provinces and the key indebted provinces and cities may need to \"do their own responsibilities\", and the economically large provinces need to shoulder more responsibilities to stabilize growth. In addition, provinces and cities that focus on debt reduction will pay more attention to risk prevention, and while deepening debt reduction, they will strictly prevent new hidden debts. Under the guidance of \"Economically major provinces must really take the lead\", some major economic provinces will start major projects at the beginning of 2024; the proportion of infrastructure projects in major projects at the beginning of the year in major economic provinces such as Jiangsu and Guangdong has increased significantly compared with the past, which may point to major economic projects. The province undertakes more infrastructure investment. In contrast, the focus of key bond provinces and cities is on risk prevention, and the investment side pays more attention to attracting private capital participation through project promotion. Under the situation where the economically large provinces and key debt-promoting provinces and cities \"each perform their respective responsibilities\", the allocation of financial resources also focuses on different aspects. Local new special bonds may be more likely to be invested in economically developed provinces, and special refinancing bond quotas may be more invested in key areas. debt area. Currently, the issuance of new special bonds in the first quarter exceeds 770 billion yuan, mainly distributed in major economic provinces such as Shandong, Sichuan, and Zhejiang; refinancing bonds exceed 770 billion yuan, of which Guizhou’s refinancing bond issuance exceeds 90 billion yuan, significantly higher than Same period in 2023. 4. Balance between central and local governments: The central government will increase the amount of local debt, and both ends of the capital project may work together between the central and local governments. In 2024, under the \"cultivation and interest-bearing\" policy of local governments, the central government may need to jointly increase the amount of capital projects at both ends. Compared with local governments, my country\\'s central government has a lower macro-leverage ratio and greater room for overweighting; in late October 2023, the central government increased the deficit budget and issued an additional trillion yuan in treasury bonds, raising the deficit ratio to 3.8%. The PSL will restart in December 2023. The increase in volume may point to the start of this round of central government\\'s \"leverage increase\", and the structure of subsequent fiscal efforts may be further adjusted. With the central government\\'s \"increased leverage\", effective project grasp is also one of the important factors affecting the workload of physical work. Local financial audits show that there will be problems with the implementation of projects in more than 90% of areas in 2022. Therefore, in addition to funding, project deployment may also need to be accelerated. Currently, national-level planning projects such as the “Three Major Projects” and “Counting from the East to the West” and high-quality projects related to the “14th Five-Year Plan” may need to speed up early project preparations to effectively receive financial funds and accelerate the formation of physical workload. Risk warning: The economic recovery is not as good as expected, and the effect of policy implementation is not as good as expected.', 'authorid': UUID('f440b850-2d99-508a-a4c1-451305ac80fd'), 'sentimentScore': 0.0344267375767231, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'NSKHRUK6T3ABT0IHMOKSKGDF47VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:28:03 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'NSKHRUK6T3ABT0IHMOKSKGDF47VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9ab40b1b-d7d1-5db9-b9d4-18ba5c99c51c'), 'title': 'Macro information tracking', 'author': 'Chen Li', 'orgName': '川财证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000204', 'orgSName': '川财证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/pawioHBYyl9XBZnBymPWd8=', 'researcher': '陈雳', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000174919'], 'count': 13, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/pawioHBYyl9XBZnBymPWd8=', 'site': 'Chuancai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '川财证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620911557_1.pdf?1707215220000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620911557_1.pdf?1707215220000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro information tracking', 'originalAuthor': '陈雳', 'originalContent': '宏观政策央行：降准落地同时开展1000亿元14天期逆回购央行今日开展1000亿元14天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.95%，与此前持平。因今日有5000亿元7天期逆回购到期，当日实现净回笼4000亿元。以此同时,人民银行下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点,释放长期资金约1万亿元,本次下调后，金融机构加权平均存款准备金率约为7.0%。（央行官网）宏观动态国新办：介绍营造市场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境有关情况并答记者问国家发展改革委法规司司长孟玮表示，建设市场化法治化国际化一流营商环境需要持续用力、久久为功。下一步，国家发展改革委将重点聚焦经营主体突出关切，采取有力措施，切实解决企业痛点难点卡点问题，着力做到“五个更好”。一是着力破除各类不合理限制，更好维护公平竞争。二是着力完善顶层设计，更好保护合法权益。针对法治化保障不够有力的短板弱项，今年将重点围绕法治化营商环境，推动出台政策性文件。三是着力促进跨境投资便利化，更好扩大制度型开放。四是着力推动政务服务优化，更好推进利企便民。五是着力发挥先进示范作用，更好实现整体提升。（国新办官网）风险提示：宏观经济修复不及预期，出现严重信用事件，增量政策不及预期。', 'content': 'Macroeconomic Policy Central Bank: The RRR reduction is implemented and a 100 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation is launched. The central bank launched a 100 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation today, with the winning rate at 1.95%, the same as before. As 500 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos expired today, a net withdrawal of 400 billion yuan was achieved that day. At the same time, the People\\'s Bank of China lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is approximately 7.0%. (Official website of the Central Bank) Macro News State Council Information Office: Introducing the situation of building a market-oriented, legal and international first-class business environment and answering reporters’ questions Meng Wei, Director of the Law and Regulation Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that building a market-oriented, legal and international first-class business environment The business environment requires continuous efforts and long-term success. In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will focus on the outstanding concerns of business entities, take effective measures to effectively solve the pain points, difficulties and stuck problems of enterprises, and strive to achieve \"five better\". First, efforts should be made to eliminate various unreasonable restrictions and better maintain fair competition. The second is to strive to improve the top-level design and better protect legitimate rights and interests. In view of the shortcomings of insufficient legal protection, this year we will focus on the legal business environment and promote the issuance of policy documents. The third is to strive to promote cross-border investment facilitation and better expand institutional openness. The fourth is to strive to promote the optimization of government services and better facilitate enterprises and people. Fifth, we should strive to play an advanced and exemplary role to better achieve overall improvement. (Official website of the State Council Information Office) Risk warning: Macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, serious credit events occur, and incremental policies are less than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('267e0858-7a39-5196-be76-43e80fed6dc6'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7847524136304855, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KMACEJB5NET1GQHJ1QP9HNCC2RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:28:06 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KMACEJB5NET1GQHJ1QP9HNCC2RVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('f9e34e6c-c7df-5911-956f-962957fc3afb'), 'title': 'Macro Weekly Report: Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 5, 2024)', 'author': 'Z Honghu Ali Ang,Amber Zhou', 'orgName': '海通国际证券集团有限公司', 'orgCode': '10001968', 'orgSName': '海通国际', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/ov47yNbIdgtQHI8cSNEJRw=', 'researcher': 'Zhonghua Liang,Amber Zhou', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000406832', '11000355042'], 'count': 8, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/ov47yNbIdgtQHI8cSNEJRw=', 'site': 'Haitong International Securities Group Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '海通国际', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620909701_1.pdf?1707229876000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620909701_1.pdf?1707229876000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macro Weekly Report: Domestic High-frequency Indicator Tracking (Issue 5, 2024)', 'originalAuthor': 'Zhonghua Liang,Amber Zhou', 'originalContent': '投资要点：临近春节，服务消费或热度回升。消费方面，商品消费中汽车消费边际回落，假期临近居民出行增加，除电影消费外的服务消费表现较为亮眼。投资方面，基建方面资金面和项目面均表现平淡，基建发力或需等待节后；新房销售数据延续底部震荡趋势，其中三线城市销售边际回升，或是受居民返乡购房需求支撑；实体指标季节性回落。进出口方面，美欧外需、韩越出口数据均有回升，但国内港口数据表现一般，出口仍有不确定性。生产方面，传统行业中煤电行业高位运行，或受取暖和工业用电需求支撑，聚酯和汽车行业生产表现也优于往年。库存方面，建材库存边际回落，延续前期趋势。物价方面，假期影响下食品等消费品价格边际回升；各类主要工业品价格小幅回落。流动性方面，跨月后，资金面偏紧的情况有所改善，资金利率回落；美国经济数据支撑美元指数持续回升。风险提示：稳增长政策不及预期。', 'content': 'Investment points: As the Spring Festival approaches, service consumption may pick up. In terms of consumption, the margin of automobile consumption in commodity consumption has dropped, residents are traveling more as the holidays approach, and service consumption other than movie consumption has performed relatively well. In terms of investment, both the capital and project aspects of infrastructure construction have been mediocre, and the development of infrastructure may have to wait for the post-holiday period; new home sales data continue to fluctuate at the bottom, with marginal sales rebounding in third-tier cities, perhaps supported by the demand for home purchases by residents returning home; physical indicators Seasonal decline. In terms of import and export, foreign demand from the United States and Europe and export data from South Korea and Vietnam have rebounded. However, domestic port data have been average and exports are still uncertain. In terms of production, among the traditional industries, the coal and electricity industry is operating at a high level, which may be supported by the demand for heating and industrial electricity. The production performance of the polyester and automobile industries is also better than in previous years. In terms of inventory, building materials inventories fell marginally, continuing the previous trend. In terms of prices, the prices of food and other consumer goods rose marginally under the influence of the holidays; the prices of various major industrial products fell slightly. In terms of liquidity, after a month, the tight funding situation has improved, and funding rates have fallen; U.S. economic data supports the continued recovery of the U.S. dollar index. Risk warning: Policies to stabilize growth fall short of expectations.', 'authorid': UUID('21742a72-b2bd-533e-9f1a-c6fdb159a438'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8816885761916637, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '1FHMM4VA02CC3SDGPD3H1OOHARVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:28:09 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '1FHMM4VA02CC3SDGPD3H1OOHARVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7b59f372-9403-5ea8-aae1-5d78ab099126'), 'title': 'January U.S. non-farm payrolls report', 'author': 'Jin Shunrouzi', 'orgName': '国投安信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066669', 'orgSName': '国投安信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/t/eE8zXzH91jML3I4FQLVI=', 'researcher': '靳顺柔子', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245957'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/t/eE8zXzH91jML3I4FQLVI=', 'site': 'SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投安信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905930_1.pdf?1707231273000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905930_1.pdf?1707231273000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'January U.S. non-farm payrolls report', 'originalAuthor': '靳顺柔子', 'originalContent': '美国1月非农就业人口增加35.3万人，远高于等造预期的18.5万人，12月的就业人数从此前的21.6万人上修至33.3万人。失业率3.7%，与前值持平，好于预期值3.8%。劳动参与率62.5%，与前值持平，低于预期值62.6%，是过去12个月最低。平均时薪环比0.6%，高于预期值0.3%和前值0.4%，是过去22个月最高，平均时薪环比大幅拍升主固工作时间明显缩短，近两个月美国就业市场意外超预期，这一是势会否延续仍待观茶，但至少表明，美固就业市场的韧性不容低估，劳动力市场依然紧俏是后续“再通胀”的一个“隐忧”。非农就业数据公布后，市场降息预期进一步推退。利华期货陆含的3月降息概率从40%左右降至20%左右，5月降息概本从100%降至90%左右，2024全年降息隔度预期也从大概率降150bp降至125bp。', 'content': 'The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 353,000 in January, much higher than the 185,000 expected, and the number of employed people in December was revised up to 333,000 from the previous 216,000. The unemployment rate was 3.7%, the same as the previous value and better than the expected value of 3.8%. The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, the same as the previous value, lower than the expected value of 62.6%, and the lowest in the past 12 months. The average hourly wage was 0.6% month-on-month, higher than the expected value of 0.3% and the previous value of 0.4%. It was the highest in the past 22 months. The average hourly wage rose sharply month-on-month. Working hours were significantly shortened. The U.S. job market unexpectedly exceeded expectations in the past two months. , it remains to be seen whether this trend will continue, but it at least shows that the resilience of the U.S. job market cannot be underestimated, and the still tight labor market is a \"hidden worry\" in the subsequent \"reflation\". After the release of non-agricultural employment data, market expectations of interest rate cuts were further pushed back. Lever Futures Luhan\\'s probability of an interest rate cut in March has dropped from about 40% to about 20%, the probability of an interest rate cut in May has dropped from 100% to about 90%, and the expected interval of interest rate cuts in 2024 has also dropped from a high probability of 150bp to 125bp. .', 'authorid': UUID('40e65a3c-99e1-55f2-857c-bc9dfcf8c17c'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9398995786905289, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OA3O1NB80FUL3OAKU363B2QGKFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:28:12 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OA3O1NB80FUL3OAKU363B2QGKFVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('51137280-d9c3-57e9-a194-a64bf251b1ba'), 'title': 'Comments on the 2024 Central Document No. 1', 'author': 'Yang Ruixia, Wu Xiaoming, Dong Tiantian, Yang Shaopeng, Huang Tian, \\u200b\\u200bHuang Wei', 'orgName': '国投安信期货有限公司', 'orgCode': '80066669', 'orgSName': '国投安信期货', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/urIhIvG2LQhSs5upUHl64w=', 'researcher': '杨蕊霞,吴小明,董甜甜,杨少鹏,黄恬,黄维', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000226626', '11000423933', '11000216724', '11000350131', '11000425032', '11000425033'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/urIhIvG2LQhSs5upUHl64w=', 'site': 'SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国投安信期货', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905623_1.pdf?1707230152000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905623_1.pdf?1707230152000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on the 2024 Central Document No. 1', 'originalAuthor': '杨蕊霞,吴小明,董甜甜,杨少鹏,黄恬,黄维', 'originalContent': '2024 年 2 月 3 日， 中央一号文件《中共中央 国务院关于学习运用“千村示范、万村整治” 工程经验有力有效推进乡村全面振兴的意见》发布。 在开篇第一部分内容“一、确保国家粮食安全”中， 提到“抓好粮食和重要农产品生产”，具体内容包括“扎实推进新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升行动。 稳定粮食播种面积，把粮食增产的重心放到大面积提高单产上，确保粮食产量保持在 1.3 万亿斤以上。 实施粮食单产提升工程，集成推广良田良种良机良法”、“巩固大豆扩种成果，支持发展高油高产品种。适当提高小麦最低收购价，合理确定稻谷最低收购价。继续实施耕地地力保护补贴和玉米大豆生产者补贴、稻谷补贴政策”、“扩大油菜��积，支持发展油茶等特色油料。 加大糖料蔗种苗和机收补贴力度”、“优化生猪产能调控机制”。 我们将对全文涉及的重要农产品逐一点评。1、 国产大豆：从政策指向看，稳定粮食播种面积，把粮食增产的重心放到大面积提高单产上。实施粮食单产提升工程，集成推广良田良种良机良法。巩固大豆扩种成果，支持发展高油高产品种。继续实施耕地地力保护补贴和大豆生产者补贴政策，扩大完全成本保险和种植收入保险政策实施范围，实现三大主粮全国覆盖、大豆有序扩面。 从政策端看，国产大豆的供给端会创历史新高，供应端仍有扩张空间，未来的方向重心是在单产上进行提高。 长期趋势看全球大豆供需结构要进入熊市周期，预计大豆价格进入周期性下行阶段，种植利润存在下行的风险，容易传导到种植成本，要防范大豆价格趋势性下行风险2、 玉米：确保国家粮食安全，抓好粮食和重要农产品生产是“三农”工作一号文件的首要任务。玉米是我国三大主粮之一，保证玉米产量和质量是保证我国粮食产量，维护国家粮食安全措施中的重要一环。一号文件主要从以下至少六个方面确保了玉米产业的平稳、健康发展。 一是抓好粮食和重要农产品生产， 文件中提到了扎实推进新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升行动，稳定粮食播种面积，确保粮食产量保持在 1.3 万亿斤以上。这意味着对玉米等粮食作物的生产提出了明确的目标和要求。 二是耕地保护制度， 文件中提到健全耕地数量、质量、生态“三位一体”保护制度体系，落实新一轮国土空间规划明确的耕地和永久基本农田保护任务。这有利于确保包括玉米在内的基本粮食种植面积。 三是补贴政策支持， 文件中提到继续实施耕地地力保护补贴和玉米大豆生产者补贴、稻谷补贴政策。这意味着 2024 年大豆和玉米生产者补贴将持续进行，有利于调动农民种粮和地方抓粮积极性， 保证玉米作为主粮对其他经济作物的播种优势。 四是农业基础设施建设， 文件中强调了对农业基础设施的建设，包括耕地建成高标准农田、水利灌溉条件的耕地建设、农田水利设施建设和管护等，这些措施将有助于提高玉米等农产品的产量和质量。 五是农业科技支撑， 文件中提到了优化农业科技创新战略布局，加强农机装备补短板行动，这将有助于提高农业生产效率，包括玉米的种植和收获。六是农产品加工业优化升级， 文件中提到了推动农产品加工业优化升级，这将为玉米等农产品的深加工提供更好的发展机遇。 综合来看，一号文件中提出的一系列措施和政策将对玉米生产产生积极的影响，有助于提高玉米的产量和质量，促进农民增收，推动乡村全面振兴', 'content': 'On February 3, 2024, the No. 1 Central Document \"Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Learning and Applying the Experience of the \"Thousand Villages Demonstration, Ten Thousand Villages Renovation\" Project to Effectively and Effectively Promote Comprehensive Rural Revitalization\" was released. In the first part of the opening chapter, \"1. Ensuring National Food Security,\" it is mentioned that \"grain and important agricultural product production\" are mentioned, and the specific content includes \"solidly promoting a new round of actions to increase the production capacity of 100 billion kilograms of grain. Stabilize the grain sown area, and The focus of increasing grain production is to increase yields on a large scale to ensure that grain output remains above 1.3 trillion kilograms. Implement grain yield improvement projects, integrate and promote good fields, good seeds, good opportunities and methods, \"consolidate the results of soybean expansion, and support the development of high-oil and high-yielding varieties\" . Appropriately increase the minimum purchase price of wheat and reasonably determine the minimum purchase price of rice. Continue to implement the policy of farmland fertility protection subsidies, corn and soybean producer subsidies, and rice subsidy policies, \"expand the area of \\u200b\\u200brapeseed, and support the development of special oils such as camellia oleifera. Increase sugar cane production Subsidies for seedlings and machine harvesting\" and \"Optimizing the regulation mechanism for pig production capacity\". We will comment on the important agricultural products covered in the full article one by one. 1. Domestic soybeans: From a policy perspective, stabilize the grain sowing area and focus on increasing grain production in large areas to increase yields. We will implement a project to increase grain yield per unit area and integrate and promote good fields, good seeds, good opportunities and good methods. Consolidate the results of soybean expansion and support the development of high-oil and high-yielding varieties. Continue to implement the policy of subsidy for arable land fertility protection and subsidy for soybean producers, expand the implementation scope of full cost insurance and planting income insurance policies, and achieve national coverage of the three major staple foods and the orderly expansion of soybeans. From a policy perspective, the supply side of domestic soybeans will reach a record high, and there is still room for expansion on the supply side. The future direction will focus on improving unit yields. Looking at the long-term trend, the global soybean supply and demand structure will enter a bear market cycle. It is expected that soybean prices will enter a cyclical downward stage. There is a downward risk in planting profits, which is easily transmitted to planting costs. We must guard against the risk of a downward trend in soybean prices. 2. Corn: Ensure national food security , Grasping the production of grain and important agricultural products is the primary task of the No. 1 document on \"agriculture, rural areas and farmers\". Corn is one of my country\\'s three major staple foods. Ensuring corn yield and quality is an important part of measures to ensure my country\\'s grain output and maintain national food security. Document No. 1 mainly ensures the stable and healthy development of the corn industry from at least the following six aspects. The first is to focus on the production of grain and important agricultural products. The document mentioned that we will solidly promote a new round of actions to increase grain production capacity by 100 billion kilograms, stabilize grain sowing area, and ensure that grain output remains above 1.3 trillion kilograms. This means clear goals and requirements for the production of food crops such as corn. The second is the cultivated land protection system. The document mentions improving the \"three-in-one\" protection system of cultivated land quantity, quality, and ecology, and implementing the clear tasks of protecting cultivated land and permanent basic farmland in the new round of land spatial planning. This will help ensure the planting area of \\u200b\\u200bbasic grains, including corn. The third is subsidy policy support. The document mentions the continued implementation of farmland fertility protection subsidies, corn and soybean producer subsidies, and rice subsidy policies. This means that subsidies for soybean and corn producers will continue in 2024, which will help mobilize farmers\\' enthusiasm for growing grain and local governments to ensure grain sowing advantages of corn as a staple food over other cash crops. The fourth is the construction of agricultural infrastructure. The document emphasizes the construction of agricultural infrastructure, including the construction of cultivated land into high-standard farmland, the construction of cultivated land with water conservancy and irrigation conditions, the construction and management of farmland water conservancy facilities, etc. These measures will help to improve the production of corn, etc. Yield and quality of agricultural products. The fifth is agricultural science and technology support. The document mentions optimizing the strategic layout of agricultural science and technology innovation and strengthening agricultural machinery and equipment to make up for shortcomings. This will help improve agricultural production efficiency, including corn planting and harvesting. Sixth, the optimization and upgrading of the agricultural product processing industry. The document mentions promoting the optimization and upgrading of the agricultural product processing industry, which will provide better development opportunities for the deep processing of corn and other agricultural products. Taken together, the series of measures and policies proposed in Document No. 1 will have a positive impact on corn production, help increase corn yield and quality, increase farmers\\' income, and promote comprehensive rural revitalization.', 'authorid': UUID('01047ebb-fa05-58c7-89d7-5f5bb0c04a4a'), 'sentimentScore': 0.13659291714429855, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '1SNK1MRKS8OJDDLHPR8OES31HNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:28:15 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '1SNK1MRKS8OJDDLHPR8OES31HNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('a1378a09-4236-5aa0-8fbf-e24df075a29c'), 'title': 'Commentary on the U.S. non-farm payroll data in January: The U.S. job market is highly resilient and interest rates may be cut later than market expectations', 'author': 'Yan Xiang, Zhu Bin, Zhang Mengfei', 'orgName': '华福证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000065', 'orgSName': '华福证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/qYL1CQv4LFSNw4vI5U7epY=', 'researcher': '燕翔,朱斌,章孟菲', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000223033', '11000235035', '11000449858'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/qYL1CQv4LFSNw4vI5U7epY=', 'site': 'Huafu Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华福证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905361_1.pdf?1707208877000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905361_1.pdf?1707208877000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Commentary on the U.S. non-farm payroll data in January: The U.S. job market is highly resilient and interest rates may be cut later than market expectations', 'originalAuthor': '燕翔,朱斌,章孟菲', 'originalContent': '事件：2月2日，美国劳工局（BLS）公布了1月非农数据。1月新增非农就业人数为35.3万人，远高于市场预期的18万人，前值由21.6万人上修至33.3万人。从分项数据来看，商品生产就业人数新增2.8万人。其中，制造业就业人数新增2.3万人为最大贡献项；建筑业新增1.1万人，连续10个月新增就业为正；采矿业减少0.6万人。服务业新增就业人数为28.9万人，为2023年2月以来最大增加值；其中对利率不敏感的教育和保健服务业（+11.2万人）依然贡献了最大增长，专业和商业服务（+7.4万），零售业（+4.5万），运输仓储业（+1.6万人），信息业（+1.5万人），休闲和酒店业（+1.1万人）等行业均为正增长。同时，美国12月失业率为3.7%，与前值持平，但低于预期的3.8%。12月劳动力短缺率（就业率+广义职位空缺率-劳动力参与率）较上月有所回升，但仍处于1%以下。劳动力短缺率整体仍然呈下降趋势，显示加息对劳动力供需的缺口继续改善，就业市场整体正在趋于供需平衡。从平均时薪来看，1月美国私营部门平均小时工资为34.55美元，高于前值34.36美元，环比增速进一步扩大，1月平均时薪环比上升0.55%，高于前值0.38%。其中，商品生产部门平均时薪环比增速为0.20%，低于前值的0.52%。服务业部门平均时薪环比增速为0.64%，高于前值0.38%。总体来看，1月非农就业数据强劲，不支持美联储过早开启降息，非农数据公布后，芝商所FedWatch工具显示美联储3月维持利率的概率从此前的52.3%上升至80%。除了大超预期的非农数据外，1月密歇根消费者信心指数、ISM制造业PMI等经济指标亦超市场预期，显示美国经济韧性较强。此前鲍威尔接受访问时表示目前总体的形势是经济和劳动力市场强劲，通胀正在下降，但对于通胀能降至2%的信心不足，因此3月议息会议不太可能降息，与1月议息会议后的鹰派发言表态一致，我们认为美联储降息很可能比市场预期的要晚，后续仍需关注1月的通胀数据。风险提示：美联储加息超预期，地缘政治影响超预期。', 'content': \"Event: On February 2, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released non-agricultural data for January. The number of new non-farm jobs in January was 353,000, much higher than market expectations of 180,000. The previous value was revised up from 216,000 to 333,000. Looking at the breakdown of data, the number of people employed in commodity production increased by 28,000. Among them, the manufacturing industry added 23,000 jobs as the largest contributor; the construction industry added 11,000 jobs, and the number of new jobs was positive for 10 consecutive months; the mining industry decreased by 6,000. The number of new jobs in the service industry was 289,000, the largest value added since February 2023; among them, the education and health services industry (+112,000), which is not sensitive to interest rates, still contributed the largest growth, and professional and business services (+ 74,000), retail (+45,000), transportation and warehousing (+16,000), information industry (+15,000), leisure and hotel industry (+11,000) and other industries all showed positive growth. At the same time, the U.S. unemployment rate was 3.7% in December, the same as the previous value, but lower than the 3.8% expected. The labor shortage rate (employment rate + generalized job vacancy rate - labor force participation rate) rebounded in December from the previous month, but is still below 1%. The overall labor shortage rate is still on a downward trend, indicating that the gap between labor supply and demand caused by interest rate hikes continues to improve, and the overall job market is tending to balance supply and demand. In terms of average hourly wages, the average hourly wage in the U.S. private sector in January was US$34.55, higher than the previous value of US$34.36. The month-on-month growth rate further expanded. The average hourly wage in January increased by 0.55% month-on-month, which was 0.38% higher than the previous value. Among them, the average hourly wage of the commodity production sector increased by 0.20% month-on-month, which was lower than the previous value of 0.52%. The average hourly wage growth in the service sector was 0.64% month-on-month, higher than the previous value of 0.38%. Overall, the strong non-farm payroll data in January does not support the Federal Reserve's premature start to cut interest rates. After the non-farm payroll data was released, the CME Group's FedWatch tool showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March rose to 80% from the previous 52.3%. In addition to the non-agricultural data that exceeded expectations, economic indicators such as the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and ISM Manufacturing PMI in January also exceeded market expectations, showing that the U.S. economy is highly resilient. In a previous interview, Powell said that the current overall situation is that the economy and labor market are strong, and inflation is declining, but there is insufficient confidence that inflation can be reduced to 2%. Therefore, it is unlikely to cut interest rates at the March interest rate meeting, which is different from the January interest rate meeting. The subsequent hawkish speeches were unanimous. We believe that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates later than the market expected. We still need to pay attention to the inflation data in January. Risk warning: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates more than expected, and the impact of geopolitics exceeded expectations.\", 'authorid': UUID('8ca1f13c-5904-515d-b780-96d04864f029'), 'sentimentScore': 0.4617951661348343, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'PG9OQ7T0QK7RG55HIHHV5P8O3BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:28:17 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'PG9OQ7T0QK7RG55HIHHV5P8O3BVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5be96c23-c134-5d3f-ac14-a73dd1089d5d'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Monthly Report: The economy is stable and improving, with warm policies blowing frequently', 'author': 'Yan Xiang, Xu Ruchun', 'orgName': '华福证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000065', 'orgSName': '华福证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/jK5ewOSKfGum9f8CudVJn4=', 'researcher': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000223033', '11000339132'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/jK5ewOSKfGum9f8CudVJn4=', 'site': 'Huafu Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '华福证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905358_1.pdf?1707210017000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905358_1.pdf?1707210017000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Monthly Report: The economy is stable and improving, with warm policies blowing frequently', 'originalAuthor': '燕翔,许茹纯', 'originalContent': '经济复苏态势不断巩固。从最新经济数据来看，供给侧和需求侧均稳步恢复，工业高质量发展亮点突出。总的来说，2023年，我国经济运行呈现“前低、中高、后稳”的态势，第三产业服务业的经济增长主引擎作用凸显。供给侧，工业生产加快恢复，规上工业企业增加值单月同比增速连续3个月提升。结构上看，高质量发展持续推进。经营效益上看，企业营收水平稳步恢复，营业成本低速增长。需求侧，居民收入大幅提升，实际消费支出增速修复明显，社会消费品零售总额同比增速较去年显著改善。投资方面，民间投资同比跌幅持续收窄，制造业、基建投资增速均好于全部投资的增速。房地产开发投资同比跌幅小幅扩大，政策效果仍需等待。进出口方面，延续向好态势，出口增速提升，进口增速转正。通胀方面，CPI全年总体平稳，PPI则低位运行。资本市场政策利好频出。1月，自总书记在省部级主要领导干部推动金融高质量发展专题研讨班上讲话后，国务院、央行、证监会等多部门纷纷表态，促进资本市场平稳健康发展，推进金融强国建设。一方面是强调宏观政策取向一致性，加强政策工具创新和协调配合。二是要增强上市公司可投性，以投资者为本。三是深化资本市场改革，推动中长期资金入市。对此，国务院会议强调大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度；央行下调存款准备金率，支小支农再贷款、再贴现利率；证监会推动保险资金长期股票投资改革试点加快落地；国资委提出全面推开市值管理考核，引导央企及时传递信心，加大现金分红力度；副总理何立峰要求各地认真调研，为上市公司排忧解难，加大优质上市公司支持力度。地方两会先后闭幕。从最新数据来看，各省市自治区2024GDP增长目标较23年谨慎，不过，目标比2023年实际增速持平或上调的近六成。根据地方政府目标与全国目标的历史走势，预计2024年全国GDP目标增速在5%左右。固定资产投资方面，各地政府基于2023年目标达成率，对2024目标进行了不同程度的调整。消费方面，各地政府对社零增速的态度较23年略谨慎，但仍保持较高预期。各地对24年社零增长目标的调整或与2023目标过高有关。相较而言，各地政府消费预期要好于固定资产投资。风险提示一是地缘政治风险超预期；二是宏观经济不及预期；三是海外市场大幅波动等。', 'content': 'Economic recovery continues to consolidate. Judging from the latest economic data, both the supply side and the demand side have recovered steadily, and high-quality industrial development has highlighted highlights. In general, in 2023, my country\\'s economic operation will show a trend of \"low at the beginning, high in the middle, and stable at the end\", and the tertiary industry service industry will play a prominent role as the main engine of economic growth. On the supply side, industrial production has accelerated its recovery, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size has increased year-on-year for three consecutive months. From a structural perspective, high-quality development continues to advance. In terms of operating efficiency, the company\\'s revenue level has recovered steadily and operating costs have grown at a low rate. On the demand side, residents\\' income has increased significantly, the growth rate of actual consumer spending has recovered significantly, and the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has improved significantly compared with last year. In terms of investment, the year-on-year decline in private investment continued to narrow, and the growth rates of manufacturing and infrastructure investment were both better than the growth rate of all investment. The year-on-year decline in real estate development investment slightly expanded, and the effect of policies still needs to be waited for. In terms of import and export, the positive trend continued, with export growth increasing and import growth turning positive. In terms of inflation, CPI was generally stable throughout the year, while PPI was running at a low level. Capital market policies are frequently favorable. In January, since the General Secretary delivered a speech at a seminar on promoting high-quality financial development for leading cadres at the provincial and ministerial levels, the State Council, the Central Bank, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments have expressed their views on promoting the stable and healthy development of the capital market and promoting the construction of a strong financial country. On the one hand, it emphasizes the consistency of macro policy orientation and strengthens innovation and coordination of policy tools. The second is to enhance the investability of listed companies and put investors first. The third is to deepen the reform of the capital market and promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market. In this regard, the State Council meeting emphasized that we should vigorously improve the quality and investment value of listed companies and increase the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market; the central bank has lowered the deposit reserve ratio to support re-lending and re-discount rates for small and rural areas; the China Securities Regulatory Commission has promoted the reform of long-term stock investment of insurance funds. The implementation of the pilot project is accelerating; the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission proposed to comprehensively promote market value management assessment to guide central enterprises to convey confidence in a timely manner and increase cash dividends; Vice Prime Minister He Lifeng asked all localities to conduct serious investigations to solve problems for listed companies and increase support for high-quality listed companies. The local two sessions concluded one after another. Judging from the latest data, the GDP growth targets of various provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in 2024 are more cautious than those in 2023. However, the targets are nearly 60% higher than the actual growth rate in 2023. Based on the historical trend of local government goals and national goals, the national GDP target growth rate in 2024 is expected to be around 5%. In terms of fixed asset investment, local governments have made varying degrees of adjustments to the 2024 targets based on the achievement rate of the 2023 targets. In terms of consumption, local governments are slightly more cautious about social retail growth than in 2023, but still maintain relatively high expectations. The adjustments to the zero social growth targets for 2024 may be related to the fact that the 2023 targets are too high. In comparison, local government consumption expectations are better than fixed asset investment. The first risk warning is that geopolitical risks are higher than expected; the second is that the macro economy is worse than expected; the third is that overseas markets fluctuate significantly, etc.', 'authorid': UUID('91584e59-c8cd-5c63-a616-39b00d7419c0'), 'sentimentScore': 0.9047862756997347, 'sentimentLabel': '+'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'N811QM19S3RE6Q7LQ1L2U1HOSVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:28:19 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'N811QM19S3RE6Q7LQ1L2U1HOSVVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('9b1f662d-a524-5b98-aeb1-213158a48d75'), 'title': 'Comments on the January 2024 FOMC meeting: The Federal Reserve remains on hold as scheduled, and the probability of an interest rate cut in March is low', 'author': 'Zhang Hesheng', 'orgName': '上海证券有限责任公司', 'orgCode': '80000155', 'orgSName': '上海证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/htWf482+VyfwK/7LmUQaQc=', 'researcher': '张河生', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000250226'], 'count': 9, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/htWf482+VyfwK/7LmUQaQc=', 'site': 'Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '上海证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905359_1.pdf?1707210017000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905359_1.pdf?1707210017000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Comments on the January 2024 FOMC meeting: The Federal Reserve remains on hold as scheduled, and the probability of an interest rate cut in March is low', 'originalAuthor': '张河生', 'originalContent': '事件北京时间2024年2月1日凌晨，美联储议息会议宣布维持基准利率不变，继续将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在5.25%到5.50%。主要观点美联储如期暂停加息，明确短期不降息。本次议息会议美联储维持联邦基金目标利率5.25%-5.5%不变，符合市场预期。这是美联储自去年7月议息会议以来，连续第5次暂停加息。同时，缩表按原计划推进。此次FOMC会议仍表明会继续按去年5月份发布的《缩减美联储资产负债表规模计划》实施缩表，缩减规模950亿美元，其中国债为600亿美元，MBS为350亿美元。本次决议，美联储确认加息结束，但对后续降息时间持谨慎态度。鲍威尔承认政策利率已到达顶峰，如经济按预期发展，在今年的某个时点降息可能是合适的。但他同时声明在对通胀持续迈向2%更有信心之前，委员会不认为降低目标区间是适宜的，表明短期内难以实现降息。经济表态更加乐观，劳动力市场更加平衡。鲍威尔表示经济活动一直在以稳定的速度扩张，强调消费者需求强劲、供应链条件改善。美国去年第四季度GDP环比折年率为3.3%，经济表现确实良好。但同时，鲍威尔也表明经济前景不明朗，仍需高度关注通胀风险。当前就业市场需求仍然大于供给，但供需状态趋于更好的平衡。美国劳动市场仍然维持着3.7%的极低失业率和16.5万人左右的月度平均新增非农就业。名义工资增长一直放缓，美联储表明实现就业和通胀的目标正进入更好的平衡。重申对控制通胀水平的决心。鲍威尔表明去年的去通胀是明显的，但仍需看到更多通胀下滑的证据。美国2023年12月PCE物价指数同比增长2.6%，核心PCE同比增长2.9%，去通胀进程较为顺利。但重申通胀依然高企，委员会依旧高度关注通胀风险，致力于实现通胀恢复2%的目标。市场解读偏鹰派，但美债收益率延续之前下降趋势。美联储1月31日下午14:00公布利率决议后，市场解读偏鹰派，当日美国三大股指明显下跌，美元指数小幅收涨。根据联邦期货数据显示，美联储三月降息概率由1月31日的43.4%下降至2月1日的35.0%。但债市受此影响并不大，10年美债收益率延续了之前的下降趋势，1月31日收益率下降7BP至3.99%。风险提示美国通胀韧性超预期；美国经济复苏节奏不确定；美国就业形式可能表现低于预期。', 'content': 'Event In the early morning of February 1, 2024, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced at its interest rate meeting that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged and continue to maintain the target range of the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50%. Main points: The Federal Reserve suspended raising interest rates as scheduled and made it clear that it will not cut interest rates in the short term. At this interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds target rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%, in line with market expectations. This is the fifth consecutive time the Federal Reserve has paused raising interest rates since its interest rate meeting last July. At the same time, the balance sheet reduction is proceeding as planned. This FOMC meeting still stated that it will continue to implement the reduction of the Fed\\'s balance sheet in accordance with the \"Plan to Reduce the Size of the Fed\\'s Balance Sheet\" released in May last year, reducing the scale by US$95 billion, of which Chinese bonds will be US$60 billion and MBS will be US$35 billion. In this resolution, the Federal Reserve confirmed the end of interest rate hikes, but was cautious about the timing of subsequent interest rate cuts. Powell acknowledged that policy rates have peaked and that if the economy develops as expected, a rate cut may be appropriate at some point this year. But he also stated that the committee does not believe it is appropriate to lower the target range until it is more confident that inflation will continue to move towards 2%, indicating that a rate cut will be difficult to achieve in the short term. Economic statements are more optimistic and the labor market is more balanced. Powell said economic activity has been expanding at a steady pace, highlighting strong consumer demand and improving supply chain conditions. The U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter of last year was 3.3% year-over-year, and the economic performance was indeed good. But at the same time, Powell also stated that the economic outlook is unclear and that inflation risks still need to be paid close attention to. The current job market demand is still greater than supply, but the supply and demand situation is tending to a better balance. The U.S. labor market still maintains a very low unemployment rate of 3.7% and an average monthly new non-farm employment of about 165,000 people. Nominal wage growth has been slowing, and the Fed has signaled it is getting into a better balance with its employment and inflation goals. Reaffirmed determination to control inflation. Powell said last year\\'s de-inflation was evident, but more evidence of falling inflation is still needed. The PCE price index in the United States in December 2023 increased by 2.6% year-on-year, and the core PCE increased by 2.9% year-on-year. The de-inflation process was relatively smooth. However, it reiterated that inflation remains high and the Committee remains highly concerned about inflation risks and is committed to achieving the goal of restoring inflation to 2%. Market interpretation is hawkish, but U.S. bond yields continue their previous downward trend. After the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision at 14:00 pm on January 31, the market interpretation was hawkish. The three major U.S. stock indexes fell significantly that day, and the U.S. dollar index closed slightly higher. According to federal futures data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March dropped from 43.4% on January 31 to 35.0% on February 1. However, the bond market was not greatly affected by this. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued its previous downward trend. On January 31, the yield dropped 7 BP to 3.99%. Risks suggest that U.S. inflation is more resilient than expected; the pace of U.S. economic recovery is uncertain; U.S. employment patterns may be lower than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('9fe98c5e-31b0-5a1b-bf2c-da9d8d5097cc'), 'sentimentScore': -0.11037052422761917, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '6D7SU4FJ4FTBEDSS1PP54TTO4FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:28:22 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '6D7SU4FJ4FTBEDSS1PP54TTO4FVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('98764c1d-b889-5a32-8834-3b2a07b32c73'), 'title': 'Monetary policy and liquidity observation: Funding remains balanced before the holiday', 'author': 'Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/haFilXg4UwK5Jo6mKxemYs=', 'researcher': '董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/haFilXg4UwK5Jo6mKxemYs=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905355_1.pdf?1707214868000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905355_1.pdf?1707214868000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Monetary policy and liquidity observation: Funding remains balanced before the holiday', 'originalAuthor': '董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点节前资金面维持均衡海外方面，上周（1月29日-2月4日）全球主要央行货币政策无重大变化��1月31日，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，在对通胀持续向2%的目标迈进有更大信心之前，美联储可能不会准备放松政策。联邦资金利率期货隐含的3月FOMC降息25bp的可能性约2成（15.5%），不降息的可能性约8成（84.5%）。国内流动性方面，随着跨月结束和春节到来，央行开始回收短端流动性，并重启14天逆回购。在幅度超预期的降准支撑下，资金面维持均衡态势，上周（1月29日-2月2日）狭义流动性指标环比基本持平。国信狭义流动性高频扩散指数较此前一周（1月22日-1月26日）边际上升0.09至100.10。其中价格指标贡献116.90%，数量指标贡献-16.90%。价格指数升高（宽松）主要上周全周标准化后的同业存单加权利率、R/DR加权利率偏离度（7天/14天利率减去同期限政策利率）和R001总体环比下行支撑。数量上，央行上周逆回购操作对数量指标形成拖累。除春节因素外，本周需关注以下因素的扰动：同业存单到期超过5000亿元。央行公开市场操作：上周（1月29日-2月4日），央行净投放流动性资金-1870亿元。其中：7天逆回购净投放-2440亿元（到期19770亿元，投放17330亿元），14天逆回购净投放570亿元（到期0亿元，投放570亿元）。本周（2月5日-2月11日），央行逆回购将到期17330亿元，其中7天逆回购到期17330亿元，14天逆回购到期0亿元。截至本周一（1月29日）央行7天逆回购净投放-5000亿元，14天逆回购净投放1000亿元，OMO存量为13900亿元。银行间交易量：上周（1月29日-2月2日），银行间市场质押回购平均日均成交6.33万亿，较前一周（1月22日-1月26日，7.64万亿）降低1.31万亿。隔夜回购占比为76.1%，较前一周（87.1%）降低11.0pct。债券发行：上周政府债净融资1450.3亿元，本周计划发行3688.5亿元，净融资额预计为1086.2亿元；上周同业存单净融资1372.5亿元，本周计划发行783.2亿元，净融资额预计为-4884.7亿元；上周政策银行债净融资870.0亿元，本周计划发行0.0亿元，净融资额预计为-2740.7亿元；上周商业银行次级债券净融资1485.0亿元，本周计划发行0.0亿元，净融资额预计为0.0亿元；上周企业债券净融资1248.1亿元（其中城投债融资贡献约21%），本周计划发行651.0亿元，净融资额预计为-852.8亿元。上周五（2月2日）人民币CFETS一篮子汇率指数较前一周（1月26日）下行0.1至98.83，同期美元指数上行0.49，位于103.97。2月2日，美元兑人民币在岸汇率较1月26日的7.18下行约15基点至7.18；离岸汇率上行约7基点至7.19。风险提示：需求改善不及预期，海外经济进入衰退。', 'content': \"The core view is that funds remain balanced before the holidays. In terms of overseas markets, there were no major changes in the monetary policies of major central banks around the world last week (January 29-February 4). On January 31, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed may not be ready to ease policy until it has greater confidence that inflation will continue to move toward its 2% target. Federal funds rate futures imply about a 20% (15.5%) chance that the March FOMC will cut interest rates by 25bp, and about an 80% (84.5%) possibility of not cutting interest rates. In terms of domestic liquidity, with the end of the month and the arrival of the Spring Festival, the central bank began to recover short-term liquidity and restarted 14-day reverse repos. Supported by the larger-than-expected RRR cut, funding remained balanced, and the narrow liquidity indicators last week (January 29-February 2) were basically unchanged month-on-month. Guosen's narrow liquidity high-frequency diffusion index increased marginally by 0.09 to 100.10 from the previous week (January 22-January 26). Among them, the price indicator contributed 116.90% and the quantity indicator contributed -16.90%. The increase (easing) in the price index was mainly supported by the weighted interest rate on interbank certificates of deposit after normalization for the whole week last week, the R/DR weighted interest rate deviation (7-day/14-day interest rate minus the policy interest rate of the same period) and the overall downward trend of R001. In terms of quantity, the central bank's reverse repurchase operation last week exerted a drag on quantity indicators. In addition to the Spring Festival factors, we need to pay attention to the disturbance of the following factors this week: Interbank certificates of deposit expired for more than 500 billion yuan. Open market operations of the central bank: Last week (January 29-February 4), the central bank released a net liquidity fund of -187 billion yuan. Among them: 7-day reverse repurchase net investment -244 billion yuan (1,977 billion yuan due, 1,733 billion yuan invested), 14-day reverse repurchase net investment 57 billion yuan (000 million yuan due, 57 billion yuan invested). This week (February 5-February 11), the central bank's reverse repurchase will expire 1.733 billion yuan, of which 7-day reverse repurchase will expire 1.733 billion yuan, and 14-day reverse repurchase will expire 0.0 billion yuan. As of this Monday (January 29), the central bank's net investment in 7-day reverse repurchases was -500 billion yuan, and its net investment in 14-day reverse repos was 100 billion yuan, and the OMO stock was 1.39 trillion yuan. Inter-bank transaction volume: Last week (January 29-February 2), the average daily turnover of pledged repos in the inter-bank market was 6.33 trillion, which was 7.64 trillion compared with the previous week (January 22-January 26). ) decreased by 1.31 trillion. Overnight repurchases accounted for 76.1%, a decrease of 11.0pct from the previous week (87.1%). Bond issuance: Net financing of government bonds last week was 145.03 billion yuan, and 368.85 billion yuan is planned to be issued this week, with net financing expected to be 108.62 billion yuan; net financing of interbank certificates of deposit last week was 137.25 billion yuan, and 78.32 billion yuan is planned to be issued this week, with net financing The amount is expected to be -488.47 billion yuan; the net financing of policy bank bonds last week was 87.00 billion yuan, and the issuance of 0.0 billion yuan is planned this week, and the net financing amount is expected to be -274.07 billion yuan; the net financing of commercial bank subordinated bonds last week was 148.50 billion yuan, This week it is planned to issue 0.0 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is expected to be 0.0 billion yuan; last week, corporate bond net financing was 124.81 billion yuan (of which urban investment bond financing contributed about 21%). This week, it is planned to issue 65.10 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is expected to be 0.0 billion yuan. It was -85.28 billion yuan. Last Friday (February 2), the RMB CFETS basket exchange rate index fell 0.1 to 98.83 from the previous week (January 26). During the same period, the US dollar index rose 0.49 to 103.97. On February 2, the onshore exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was higher than that of the previous week (January 26). The 7.18 on January 26 fell by about 15 basis points to 7.18; the offshore exchange rate rose by about 7 basis points to 7.19. Risk warning: Demand does not improve as expected, and overseas economies enter recession.\", 'authorid': UUID('7f0ba462-39fa-5efc-b2aa-f8b8339a39b2'), 'sentimentScore': -0.7138313204050064, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'AVUPH9H1D4RLQFDFGD04CLHMGNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:28:24 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'AVUPH9H1D4RLQFDFGD04CLHMGNVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "https://reportapi.eastmoney.com/report/jg?cb=datatable8544623&pageSize=100&beginTime=2023-12-16&endTime=2024-03-15&pageNo=7&qType=3\n", - "{'id': UUID('921a736f-db3e-510b-95d7-cbef84a2e88f'), 'title': 'Macroeconomic Weekly Report: Prices of domestic means of production stabilized and rebounded in late January', 'author': 'Li Zhizhi, Dong Dezhi', 'orgName': '国信证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000007', 'orgSName': '国信证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/vkrZTfAUc3Ewgr4+AQtAI4=', 'researcher': '李智能,董德志', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000245053', '11000177875'], 'count': 20, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/vkrZTfAUc3Ewgr4+AQtAI4=', 'site': 'Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '国信证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905353_1.pdf?1707209557000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905353_1.pdf?1707209557000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Macroeconomic Weekly Report: Prices of domestic means of production stabilized and rebounded in late January', 'originalAuthor': '李智能,董德志', 'originalContent': '核心观点1月下旬国内生产资料价格企稳回升。1月以来国信高频宏观扩散指数B持续下行，指向国内经济增长动能偏弱，但1月下旬国内流通领域生产资料价格却企稳回升，或表明国内经济在结构上开始出现一些回暖的迹象。本周国信高频宏观扩散指数A维持负值，指数B继续下行。从分项来看，本周房地产领域景气有所上升，消费、投资领域景气有所回落。从季节性比较来看，本周指数B标准化后继续下行，表现略逊于历史平均水平，国内经济增长向上动力偏弱。2024年2月2日当周，国信高频宏观扩散指数A为-0.4，指数B录得104.8，指数C录得-1.9%（-1.1pct.）。消费相关分项中，全钢胎开工率、PTA产量均较上周下行，本周国内消费景气有所回落；投资相关分项中，焦化企业周��开工率、螺纹钢产量、水泥价格均较上周下行，本周国内投资景气有所回落；房地产相关分项中，30大中城市商品房成交面积、建材综合指数均较上周上行，国内房地产领域景气有所上升。周度价格高频跟踪方面：（1）本周食品、非食品价格均上涨。2024年1月食品价格环比或仍低于季节性，非食品价格环比或持平季节性。预计1月CPI食品环比约为零，非食品环比约为0.2%，CPI整体环比约为0.2%，1月CPI同比或明显回落至-0.9%。（2）1月上旬、中旬国内流通领域的生产资料价格有所回落，下旬企稳回升。预计随着稳增长政策推进，需求继续回暖，后续国内流通领域生产资料价格或延续企稳回升态势。预计2024年1月国内PPI环比维持负值，PPI同比持平上月的-2.7%。风险提示：政策刺激力度减弱，经济增速下滑。', 'content': 'The core view is that the prices of domestic means of production stabilized and rebounded in late January. Since January, the Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index B has continued to decline, pointing to weak domestic economic growth momentum. However, in late January, the price of means of production in the domestic circulation sector stabilized and rebounded, which may indicate that the domestic economy is beginning to show some signs of structural recovery. This week, Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A maintained a negative value, and Index B continued to decline. From a sub-item perspective, the real estate sector has seen an increase in prosperity this week, while the consumption and investment sectors have declined. From a seasonal comparison point of view, index B continued to decline after normalization this week, and its performance was slightly worse than the historical average. The upward momentum of domestic economic growth is weak. In the week of February 2, 2024, Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A was -0.4, Index B recorded 104.8, and Index C recorded -1.9% (-1.1pct.). Among the consumption-related items, the operating rate of all-steel tires and PTA production were both lower than last week, and the domestic consumption boom declined this week; among the investment-related items, the weekly operating rate of coking enterprises, rebar production, and cement prices were all lower than last week. After falling last week, the domestic investment boom has declined this week; among real estate-related sub-categories, the transaction area of \\u200b\\u200bcommercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities and the comprehensive building materials index have both increased compared with last week, and the boom in the domestic real estate sector has increased. Weekly price high-frequency tracking: (1) Both food and non-food prices increased this week. In January 2024, food prices may still be lower than seasonally, while non-food prices may remain seasonal. It is expected that the month-on-month CPI of food in January is about zero, that of non-food is about 0.2%, and that the overall CPI is about 0.2%. The CPI in January may drop significantly to -0.9% year-on-year. (2) Prices of means of production in domestic circulation fell in early and mid-January, then stabilized and rebounded in late January. It is expected that with the advancement of stabilizing growth policies, demand will continue to pick up, and the price of production means in the domestic circulation field may continue to stabilize and recover. It is expected that domestic PPI will remain negative month-on-month in January 2024, with PPI unchanged from the previous month at -2.7%. Risk warning: Policy stimulus will weaken and economic growth will decline.', 'authorid': UUID('92623406-8214-5e94-84f7-458373c02882'), 'sentimentScore': -0.9175241589546204, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'R4FQNRJIO142LT58CLG78AD73VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:28:28 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'R4FQNRJIO142LT58CLG78AD73VVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('7264bf58-4292-5a23-8aa9-1606f71ea274'), 'title': 'The road to revitalization of nominal GDP: How to bridge the “temperature gap” between macro and micro?', 'author': 'Cheng Qiang, Dai Kun', 'orgName': '德邦证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000217', 'orgSName': '德邦证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/up7se92FygrMoloIIGvZh4=', 'researcher': '程强,戴琨', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000296632', '11000444150'], 'count': 10, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/up7se92FygrMoloIIGvZh4=', 'site': 'Debon Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '德邦证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905352_1.pdf?1707209444000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905352_1.pdf?1707209444000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'The road to revitalization of nominal GDP: How to bridge the “temperature gap” between macro and micro?', 'originalAuthor': '程强,戴琨', 'originalContent': '去年12月召开的中央经济工作会议指出，经济工作要处理好四个关系，其中“宏观数据与微观感受的关系”是一个较新的提法，也是触及当前经济发展过程中症结所在的重要表述。我们认为，“温差”的产生当然可以归结于诸多原因，但究其根本，中国经济当前面临的低通胀问题才是产生“温差”的最主要原因。“温差”的产生根植于当前的低通胀环境对微观感受而言，名义GDP很重要：实际GDP剔除了价格信息，在价格水平低迷时期，其所表征的内容与微观真实感受相比可能是失真的。而相对于实际GDP来说，由于采用了当年价格计算，名义GDP往往更加贴近短期的“微观感受”。勿低估本轮低通胀影响：2023全年看，5%的GDP增速目标顺利完成，但需要注意的是，全年GDP平减指数变化再度转负，这一指标距离上次转负已过去13年。而与15年那一轮低通胀相比，本轮低通胀对民企微观感受的影响可能更强，这也是催生较强“温差”的重要原因。我国独特的通胀特点：从通胀特点上看，我国具有独特的低通胀成因，这与我国的总供求格局以及市场结构等因素是密切相关的。“有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱、风险隐患仍然较多”的现实意味着需求不足的背后既有需求端的疲弱、也有供给侧的局部过剩。内卷式竞争、“价格战”与低通胀的宏观环境往往相互强化低通胀与产能过剩：对于中央经济工作会议指出的“部分行业产能过剩”问题，中央财办有关负责同志在2023年12月18日对中央经济工作会议精神的解读中进一步指明“部分新兴行业存在重复布局和内卷式竞争，一些行业产能过剩”。哪些行业产能过剩：一方面，由于供给侧结构性改革中淘汰落后产能、去过剩产能等措施，主要上游行业目前并不存在明显的产能过剩风险；另一方面，目前的产能过剩行业主要可以分为两类：第一类主要是由于分子端的实际产出收缩较快；第二类主要是由于分母端生产能力的扩张快于实际产出。居民资产表受损：持续三年的新冠疫情对微观主体的资产负债表产生了巨大冲击，叠加各类资产表现不佳，居民控制和修复自身资产负债表的意愿强烈，这一资产负债表修复进程无疑抑制了市场主体的支出能力与支出意愿，有效需求不足抑制微观感受。面对当前通胀低迷的宏观环境，应当如何破局？“温差”弥合的关键在于打破当前的低通胀环境、将经济运行拉回至一个适度的通胀水平，高于实际的名义增长将自然冲淡宏微观“温差”。推动总需求回升，财政政策或更关键：我们认为，当前供给侧的过剩是局部的、次要的，需求侧的疲弱才是普遍的、主要的，因此低通胀的破局关键是推动总需求回升，财政和货币协同发力是必要条件，财政端的扩张或更关键。从财政赤字与政府杠杆角度看，2023年赤字率的突破可能是财政政策的一个重要拐点，往前看，在地方政府稳杠杆的背景下，中央政府加杠杆是较为合适的选择，有一定必要性且仍有空间。财政货币协同方面，兼具“类财政+宽货币”双重属性的PSL去年底的“重出江湖”是又一重要的政策信号，其本身也将为“三大工程”提供关键的资金支持，2024年财政货币的协同配合度和具体操作方式也将成为稳增长的一大关键。回到一致的参考系：政策调控和市场交易的核心参照系大多数时候并不相同，但这种差异可能正在逐步收敛，2024年值得关注的政策调控背景是参照系与市场逐渐趋同。展望2024，不同于此前三年，我们认为，政策层面与市场主体的参考系或是逐渐趋同的，5%的目标存在一定难度，需要努力才能实现。聚焦M1与M2：对于2024年来说，宏观层面的核心跟踪指标应该锚定在名义GDP和通胀指标上，而这两者在根源上又取决于总体货币供给和货币信用传导，因此观测M1和M2的拐点对评估整体环境或更为重要。其中，M2对M1有一定领先性，而M1则对广义通胀有一定领先性，M1的再度起色是走出低通胀的前哨。同时，M1自低位回升初期可能仍是被动的，进一步迈入主动回升区间更为关键。风险提示：海内外经济环境超预期变动；政策力度或落地效果不及预期；地缘政治局势变化超预期。', 'content': 'The Central Economic Work Conference held in December last year pointed out that economic work must handle four relationships. Among them, \"the relationship between macro data and micro feelings\" is a relatively new formulation and an important expression that touches on the crux of the current economic development process. . We believe that the \"temperature difference\" can of course be attributed to many reasons, but ultimately, the low inflation problem currently facing the Chinese economy is the main reason for the \"temperature difference\". The generation of \"temperature difference\" is rooted in the current low-inflation environment. For micro-feelings, nominal GDP is very important: real GDP excludes price information. During periods of low price levels, the content it represents may be distorted compared with real micro-feelings. of. Compared with real GDP, nominal GDP is often closer to short-term \"micro-feelings\" due to the use of current year price calculations. Don’t underestimate the impact of this round of low inflation: Looking at the whole year of 2023, the 5% GDP growth target has been successfully achieved, but it should be noted that the change in the GDP deflator for the year has turned negative again. This indicator has passed since the last time it turned negative. 13 years. Compared with the round of low inflation in 2015, this round of low inflation may have a stronger impact on the micro-feelings of private enterprises, which is also an important reason for the strong \"temperature difference\". my country\\'s unique inflation characteristics: From the perspective of inflation characteristics, my country has unique causes of low inflation, which are closely related to my country\\'s overall supply and demand pattern and market structure and other factors. The reality of \"insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, and still many hidden risks\" means that behind the insufficient demand there is both weakness on the demand side and partial excess on the supply side. Involving competition, \"price wars\" and the low-inflation macro environment often reinforce each other\\'s low inflation and overcapacity: Regarding the \"overcapacity in some industries\" problem pointed out by the Central Economic Work Conference, the relevant responsible comrades of the Central Finance Office said in December 2023 The interpretation of the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference on the 18th further stated that “some emerging industries have duplication of layout and involution competition, and some industries have overcapacity.” Which industries have overcapacity: On the one hand, due to measures such as eliminating backward production capacity and reducing overcapacity in the supply-side structural reform, major upstream industries currently do not have obvious overcapacity risks; on the other hand, the current overcapacity industries can mainly be divided into There are two categories: the first category is mainly due to the fact that the actual output at the numerator end shrinks faster; the second category is mainly due to the expansion of the denominator end production capacity faster than the actual output. Damage to residents\\' balance sheets: The three-year-old COVID-19 epidemic has had a huge impact on the balance sheets of micro entities, superimposed on the poor performance of various assets. Residents have a strong will to control and repair their own balance sheets. This balance sheet repair The process has undoubtedly inhibited the spending ability and willingness of market entities, and insufficient effective demand has suppressed micro-level feelings. Faced with the current macro environment of sluggish inflation, how should we break the situation? The key to closing the \"temperature gap\" is to break the current low-inflation environment and bring the economy back to a moderate inflation level. Higher-than-actual nominal growth will naturally dilute the macro-micro \"temperature gap.\" To promote the recovery of aggregate demand, fiscal policy is more critical: We believe that the current excess on the supply side is local and secondary, while the weakness on the demand side is universal and major. Therefore, the key to breaking low inflation is to promote the recovery of aggregate demand. , fiscal and monetary coordination is a necessary condition, and expansion on the fiscal side is even more critical. From the perspective of fiscal deficit and government leverage, the breakthrough in the deficit rate in 2023 may be an important turning point in fiscal policy. Looking forward, in the context of local government stabilizing leverage, it is more appropriate for the central government to increase leverage, and it is necessary. sex and still have room. In terms of fiscal and monetary coordination, the \"return\" of PSL at the end of last year, which has the dual attributes of \"quasi-fiscal + broad currency\", is another important policy signal. It will also provide key financial support for the \"three major projects\" in 2024. The degree of fiscal and monetary coordination and specific operational methods will also become a key to stable growth. Returning to a consistent frame of reference: Most of the time, the core reference frames of policy regulation and market transactions are not the same, but this difference may be gradually converging. The policy regulation background worthy of attention in 2024 is the gradual convergence of the reference frame and the market. Looking forward to 2024, unlike the previous three years, we believe that the reference system at the policy level and market entities may gradually converge. The 5% target is difficult to achieve and requires hard work to achieve. Focus on M1 and M2: For 2024, the core tracking indicators at the macro level should be anchored in nominal GDP and inflation indicators, which fundamentally depend on the overall money supply and monetary credit transmission, so observe M1 and M2 The inflection point may be more important for assessing the overall environment. Among them, M2 has a certain lead over M1, while M1 has a certain lead over general inflation. The renewed improvement of M1 is the outpost of getting out of low inflation. At the same time, M1 may still be passive in the early stage of recovery from lows, and it is more critical to further enter the active recovery range. Risk warning: The economic environment at home and abroad changes more than expected; policy intensity or implementation effects are less than expected; the geopolitical situation changes more than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('026e7581-b258-5b57-97d8-782e2d910d03'), 'sentimentScore': 0.033109910786151886, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'OAMKO399FI5IQ53T0DH6M3CLNJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:28:31 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'OAMKO399FI5IQ53T0DH6M3CLNJVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('313b206b-0442-5d42-9de1-ed372ca6d437'), 'title': 'Monthly exchange rate report for January 2024: The inversion of interest rate differentials between China and the United States continues, and the RMB may fluctuate downwards', 'author': '', 'orgName': '北大国民经济研究中心', 'orgCode': '80922684', 'orgSName': '北大国民经济研究中心', 'publishDate': '2024-02-06', 'encodeUrl': 'sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/t+X/rMtBvFLt68OkRCpyaQ=', 'researcher': '', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': '', 'count': 2, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=sqKtuE96631Xv0Z+cJOw/t+X/rMtBvFLt68OkRCpyaQ=', 'site': 'Peking University National Economic Research Center', 'originalSite': '北大国民经济研究中心', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905351_1.pdf?1707239277000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402061620905351_1.pdf?1707239277000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Monthly exchange rate report for January 2024: The inversion of interest rate differentials between China and the United States continues, and the RMB may fluctuate downwards', 'originalAuthor': '', 'originalContent': '2024年1月，人民币汇率呈现震荡下跌趋势，在7.0770至7.2217区间内呈现双向波动的态势，中美利差倒挂、美国四季度经济数据好于预期、美降息时点预期推迟，叠加中国降准是影响本月人民币汇率走势的主要因素。美国经济数据表现良好，尽管美联储1月暂停加息，但随着去年12月美国CPI再次反弹，市场对3月降息预期后移，人民币走势承压。与此同时，1月中国央行决定将于2月5日下调存款准备金率0.5个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性1万亿元，中美利差或进一步扩大。因此，预计2024年2月人民币汇率在7.10～7.26区间双向波动。一、市场回顾2024年1月，受到中美利差倒挂、美国四季度经济数据好于预期、美降息时点预期推迟，叠加中国降准等因素影响，人民币汇率呈现出震荡下跌趋势，总体呈现在7.0770至7.2217区间内双向波动。其中，人民币在岸汇率从7.0920跌至7.1795，累计下跌875个基点；人民币中间价从7.0827调贬至7.1039，累计调贬212个基点；人民币离岸汇率从7.1271跌至7.1862，累计下跌591个基点。主要原因包括：第一，2023年12月刚公布的一系列美国经济数据表现强劲，12月美国非农新增就业人数为21.6万人，高于预期的17.1万人；1月美国Markit制造业PMI初值为50.3，高于预期和前值，服务业PMI初值为52.9，也高于前值和预期；12月美国零售数据季调环比增长0.6%，超于预期和前值0.4%、0.3%；四季度美国GDP同比增长3.3%，显著高于预期2%。第二，美国通胀超预期反弹。2023年12月美国CPI同比增长3.4%，高于预期和前值，但核心CPI同比增长3.9%、PCE同比增长2.9%，均低于前值；国际原油价格震荡下行，1月布伦特原油现货价格平均值为79.78美元/桶，较12月环比上涨2.6%。���预期的经济数据、反弹的通胀及原油价格上涨，推迟了市场对降息时点的预期。第三，美联储货币政策方向。2024年1月美联储再次暂停加息，但美联储主席鲍威尔表示，“多数委员预计今年可能降息多次，但并不认为3月就会启动降息”。从2024年1月的内部环境来看，在稳经济政策的主力下，经济恢复继续，但经济内生修复动能仍待进一步加强。国内政策方面，中国人民银行决定自2024年2月5日起，下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点。从1月的外部环境来看，中美利差保持倒挂，人民币依旧承压。截至1月31日，美国10年期国债收益率为3.99%，中国10年期国债收益率为2.4256%；美国1年期国债收益率为4.73%，中国1年期国债收益率为1.9450%。跨境资金方面，北向资金净流入超22亿元，未对1月人民币汇率形成压制。美元指数方面，受CPI超预期反弹影响，1月美元指数止跌上涨。总体来看，美国经济数据强劲、美国CPI超预期反弹、中美利差倒挂和货币政策分化等因素引致1月人民币总体呈现小幅下跌，在7.0770至7.2217区间内呈现双向波动态势。', 'content': 'In January 2024, the RMB exchange rate showed a volatile downward trend, with two-way fluctuations in the range of 7.0770 to 7.2217. The interest rate differential between China and the United States was inverted, the U.S. fourth-quarter economic data was better than expected, and the timing of the U.S. interest rate cut was postponed, superimposing China\\'s RRR cut. It is the main factor affecting the trend of RMB exchange rate this month. U.S. economic data performed well. Although the Federal Reserve suspended raising interest rates in January, as U.S. CPI rebounded again in December last year, market expectations for an interest rate cut in March shifted back, putting pressure on the RMB. At the same time, in January, the People\\'s Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points on February 5 to provide the market with long-term liquidity of 1 trillion yuan. The interest rate gap between China and the United States may further widen. Therefore, the RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate in both directions between 7.10 and 7.26 in February 2024. 1. Market Review In January 2024, affected by factors such as the inversion of the interest rate differential between China and the United States, better-than-expected economic data in the fourth quarter of the United States, the postponement of the expected timing of the U.S. interest rate cut, and China\\'s RRR cut, the RMB exchange rate showed a volatile downward trend. It fluctuates in both directions within the range of 7.0770 to 7.2217. Among them, the onshore RMB exchange rate fell from 7.0920 to 7.1795, a cumulative decline of 875 basis points; the central parity rate of the RMB devalued from 7.0827 to 7.1039, a cumulative decline of 212 basis points; the offshore RMB exchange rate fell from 7.1271 to 7.1862, a cumulative decline of 591 basis points . The main reasons include: first, a series of U.S. economic data just released in December 2023 showed strong performance. The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in December was 216,000, higher than the expected 171,000; the U.S. Markit manufacturing industry in January The initial PMI value was 50.3, higher than expected and the previous value. The initial value of the services PMI was 52.9, also higher than the previous value and expected; U.S. retail sales data in December increased by 0.6% seasonally adjusted, exceeding expectations and the previous value of 0.4%. 0.3%; U.S. GDP grew by 3.3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, significantly higher than the expected 2%. Second, U.S. inflation rebounded more than expected. In December 2023, U.S. CPI increased by 3.4% year-on-year, higher than expected and the previous value, but core CPI increased by 3.9% year-on-year, and PCE increased by 2.9% year-on-year, both lower than the previous value; international crude oil prices fluctuated downward, and Brent crude oil in January The average spot price was US$79.78/barrel, an increase of 2.6% from December. Better-than-expected economic data, rebounding inflation and rising crude oil prices have delayed market expectations for the timing of an interest rate cut. Third, the direction of the Fed’s monetary policy. In January 2024, the Federal Reserve suspended interest rate increases again, but Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that \"most committee members expect that interest rates may be cut multiple times this year, but do not believe that interest rate cuts will start in March.\" Judging from the internal environment in January 2024, the economic recovery continues with the main force of economic stabilization policies, but the endogenous recovery momentum of the economy still needs to be further strengthened. In terms of domestic policies, the People\\'s Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points starting from February 5, 2024. Judging from the external environment in January, the interest rate gap between China and the United States remained inverted, and the RMB remained under pressure. As of January 31, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield was 3.99%, and the Chinese 10-year Treasury bond yield was 2.4256%; the U.S. 1-year Treasury bond yield was 4.73%, and the Chinese 1-year Treasury bond yield was 1.9450%. In terms of cross-border funds, the net inflow of northbound funds exceeded 2.2 billion yuan, which did not suppress the RMB exchange rate in January. In terms of the U.S. dollar index, affected by the unexpected rebound in CPI, the U.S. dollar index stopped falling and rose in January. Overall, factors such as strong U.S. economic data, an unexpected rebound in U.S. CPI, an inversion in Sino-U.S. interest rate differentials, and divergent monetary policies caused the RMB to fall slightly overall in January, showing a two-way fluctuation trend within the range of 7.0770 to 7.2217.', 'authorid': UUID('0a68eb57-c88a-5f34-9e9d-27f85e68af4f'), 'sentimentScore': -0.8664910830557346, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'S2N3PHG5ULASDSACA5ICNDDFS3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:28:34 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'S2N3PHG5ULASDSACA5ICNDDFS3VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('6e4e52e3-dbfa-512c-b371-7ed461f3da42'), 'title': 'A brief analysis of Henan Province’s 2024 Government Work Report: Moving towards “newness” and a promising future', 'author': 'Deng Shubin, Zheng Ting', 'orgName': '中原证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000218', 'orgSName': '中原证券', 'publishDate': '2024-02-05', 'encodeUrl': 'HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BGsHfnowZmijsETCObqoclI=', 'researcher': '邓淑斌,郑婷', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000174981', '11000431538'], 'count': 0, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=HQR+HjzJm+6BTnq8Ir13BGsHfnowZmijsETCObqoclI=', 'site': 'Centaline Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中原证券', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209351_1.pdf?1710153500000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403111626209351_1.pdf?1710153500000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'A brief analysis of Henan Province’s 2024 Government Work Report: Moving towards “newness” and a promising future', 'originalAuthor': '邓淑斌,郑婷', 'originalContent': '事件：2024年1月28日-31日，河南省召开第十四届人大二次会议，期间，省长王凯作《政府工作报告》（以下简称“报告”）。要点：全省经济运行：从经济运行主要指标完成情况来看，2023年全省经济算不上亮眼，全省地区生产总值（GDP）等部分指标并未完成年初目标，增长情况也低于全国水平，全省GDP长期在全国31个省份排名第五的位次，在2023年被四川省超越，这一定程度上体现了全国区域协调发展推进中，河南省“追兵渐近”的严峻现实。但如从月度走势来看，多项经济指标在下半年开始呈现企稳发力的态势，进一步观察新质生产力的培育，也是不乏亮点、不乏“新”意。全省经济工作部署：2024年全省经济工作总体要求和九项重点工作安排的主线，充分体现了围绕全面贯彻新发展理念、全面融入新发展格局，根据河南国民经济发展“十四五”规划纲要的既定发展思路——锚定“两个确保”、实施“十大战略”，在接续奋进中不断深化、持续优化，强基固本、补弱强优，不断夯实新质生产力的发展基础。加快形成新质生产力：“新质生产力”的核心是创新、载体是产业，地方政府在推动发展新质生产力方面的部署和进展，至少可以体现在区域科技创新生态的建立健全、战略新兴产业和未来产业的布局和推进举措。从这个意义上讲，河南省在2023年形成了“三足鼎立”科技创新大格局、明确了“7+28”重点产业链行动方案等一系列举措的落地实施及成果，也充分展示了一种向“新”而行、奋起直追的姿态，值得期待。风险提示：1.数据取自河南省政府官网、河南统计局官网、万得资讯及公司公告等，统计数据和分析可能不完全；2.对于相关政策的理解和业务机会的判断，分析师力求客观严谨，但基于自身的认识局限性，也可能存在认知分歧，解读不够全面。3.政策推进速度不及预期。', 'content': 'Event: From January 28 to 31, 2024, Henan Province held the second session of the 14th National People\\'s Congress. During the period, Governor Wang Kai delivered the \"Government Work Report\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Report\"). Key points: Economic operation of the province: Judging from the completion of the main indicators of economic operation, the province\\'s economy is not outstanding in 2023. Some indicators such as the province\\'s gross domestic product (GDP) have not completed the targets at the beginning of the year, and the growth rate is also low. At the national level, the province\\'s GDP has long ranked fifth among the 31 provinces in the country. It was surpassed by Sichuan Province in 2023. This reflects to a certain extent that Henan Province is \"catching up\" in the advancement of coordinated regional development across the country. Harsh reality. However, judging from the monthly trends, many economic indicators began to show a trend of stabilization and strength in the second half of the year. Further observation of the cultivation of new productive forces also revealed many bright spots and \"new\" ideas. The province\\'s economic work deployment: The overall requirements for the province\\'s economic work and the main line of nine key work arrangements in 2024 fully reflect the comprehensive implementation of the new development concept and comprehensive integration into the new development pattern, according to the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" for the development of Henan\\'s national economy. The established development ideas of the outline - anchoring the \"two guarantees\", implementing the \"ten strategies\", continuously deepening and optimizing in the continuous progress, strengthening the foundation, strengthening the weak and strong, and constantly consolidating the development foundation of new quality productivity . Accelerate the formation of new productive forces: The core of \"new productive forces\" is innovation and the carrier is industry. The deployment and progress of local governments in promoting the development of new productive forces can at least be reflected in the establishment and improvement of regional scientific and technological innovation ecology, strategic emerging industries and Future industry layout and promotion measures. In this sense, Henan Province has formed a \"three-legged\" scientific and technological innovation pattern in 2023, clarified the implementation and results of a series of measures such as the \"7+28\" key industrial chain action plan, and fully demonstrated a trend towards The attitude of moving \"newly\" and striving to catch up is worth looking forward to. Risk warning: 1. The data is taken from the official website of the Henan Provincial Government, the official website of the Henan Bureau of Statistics, Wind Information and company announcements, etc. The statistical data and analysis may not be complete; 2. Analysts strive to understand relevant policies and judge business opportunities. It is objective and rigorous, but based on its own cognitive limitations, there may be cognitive differences and the interpretation is not comprehensive enough. 3. Policy advancement is slower than expected.', 'authorid': UUID('eb5c3d21-0e11-538a-80db-efdaa159cebe'), 'sentimentScore': -0.2068290412425995, 'sentimentLabel': '0'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': 'KCLCURJ14P11G7DBNCDT2QJ3T7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:28:36 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': 'KCLCURJ14P11G7DBNCDT2QJ3T7VV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n", - "{'id': UUID('5376400f-8943-5d49-a2e7-e565d1ba5c6a'), 'title': 'Immigration issues and their impact in the US election year', 'author': 'Akitoshi', 'orgName': '中国银河证券股份有限公司', 'orgCode': '80000135', 'orgSName': '中国银河', 'publishDate': '2024-02-05', 'encodeUrl': 'cltCfXy5a9ZI64Z2Z/0d4OuRCsXOOcQZxOutkAZ+2q4=', 'researcher': '章俊', 'market': '', 'industryCode': '', 'industryName': '', 'authorID': ['11000181067'], 'count': 33, 'orgType': 'white', 'url': 'https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl=cltCfXy5a9ZI64Z2Z/0d4OuRCsXOOcQZxOutkAZ+2q4=', 'site': 'China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.', 'originalSite': '中国银河', 'reporturl': 'https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402051620596224_1.pdf?1707168490000.pdfhttps://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202402051620596224_1.pdf?1707168490000.pdf', 'originalTitle': 'Immigration issues and their impact in the US election year', 'originalAuthor': '章俊', 'originalContent': '核心观点：“孤星行动”引发边境危机，新边境法案中民主党拟做出重大让步。作为非法移民的重灾区，得州一直与拜登政府在边境问题上正面交锋，开展“孤星行动”阻挡非法移民。近期更派兵控制部分边境地区，禁止联邦执法人员进入，25名共和党籍州长联署支持得州对抗拜登政府。目前白宫正在与联邦参议院就边境安全问题的新法案积极协商，得州局势无疑火上浇油。由于草案和援助乌克兰等军费绑定，民主党计划做出重大让步，包括赋予总统“关闭边���权“。两党在移民问题的巨大政策差异，也是价值观、经济理念和选民基础方面差异的体现。2000年以来两党在非法移民问题上的观点逐步分化，近十多年来已成为两党博弈的核心焦点。共和党一贯倾向于采取更加严格的移民政策，强调边境安全和法律执行。而民主党则倾向于更为宽松、人道和有序的移民政策，这也是其争取选票的一项主要策略，特别是在少数族裔人口迅速增长的背景下。今年是大选年，移民问题无疑将是搅动大选、展开政治博弈的主战场。通常在选举中，共和党利用移民议题来吸引保守选民，特别是那些关心边境安全和法律秩序的选民。而民主党则试图通过移民政策改革来巩固其基本盘，特别是争取拉美裔和其他少数族裔选民的支持。民调显示，总体上美国民众对移民仍持开放态度，但两极化严重。处理好移民问题是赢得摇摆州的关键。大规模移民所带来的最主要、最直接的日常影响来自经济方面，而且是通过劳动力市场最早表现出来。移民主要通过三方面提供更多劳动力，包括人口的增加，较高的适龄劳动人口比例以及更高的劳动参与率。新移民在技能水平和职业领域与本土劳动力有差异，就业市场对于移民有动态吸收能力，移民也具备职业创造能力。因此宏观上并没有证明移民导致美国失业率显著抬升。我们根据资本-劳动力模型测算移民对美国劳动力市场的影响，使用美国1951-1970年的数据进行测算（美国重启移民浪潮前），发现合法移民并没有明显拖累美国的劳动力市场。当然非法移民的影响略有不同，也更加复杂，特别是在低技能和季节性工作中，可能会对本土低技能工人的工资和就业机会产生竞争压力。而移民是否耗费较多的社会福利，涉及教育、医疗保健、社会服务和公共安全等多方面。移民会使用各种社会服务，对州和地方政府的财政产生压力，同时通过纳税对财政也有正的贡献，这些税收有助于支持公共服务和基础设施建设。放眼全球，移民问题带来的政治和社会冲击远不仅仅在影响美国。目前，欧洲仍然是移民青睐的目的地，今年是欧洲议会大选年，在地缘冲突频发的背景下，欧盟需要加倍小心，防止类似“2015年难民危机”的事件重演。东亚国家在移民问题上的考验看似稍温和，但却更加关乎经济发展的根本。特别是老龄化时代，日韩等非传统移民接受国，如何推出更具备吸引力和针对性的移民政策，对于未来发展前景至关重要。东盟国家移民政策仍偏保守，人员流动主要发生在区域内，表现为劳动力、特别是低收入劳动力的跨境流动。这部分劳工移民也支撑了整个地区经济的快速发展，帮助调节了人口老龄化的影响，并填补了本国工人在某些领域的空缺。风险提示1.海外经济衰退的风险2.地缘政治的风险3.民调误差的风险', 'content': 'Core view: \"Operation Lone Star\" triggered a border crisis, and the Democratic Party plans to make major concessions in the new border bill. As an area hardest hit by illegal immigration, Texas has been in direct conflict with the Biden administration on border issues and launched \"Operation Lone Star\" to stop illegal immigration. Recently, troops were sent to control some border areas and federal law enforcement officers were prohibited from entering. 25 Republican governors signed a petition to support Texas\\' fight against the Biden administration. The White House is currently actively negotiating with the Federal Senate on a new bill on border security issues, and the situation in Texas has undoubtedly added fuel to the fire. With the draft tied to military spending such as aid to Ukraine, Democrats plan to make major concessions, including giving the president the power to close the border. The huge policy differences between the two parties on immigration issues are also a reflection of differences in values, economic concepts and voter base. Since 2000, the views of the two parties on the issue of illegal immigration have gradually diverged, and it has become the core focus of the game between the two parties in the past decade. Republicans have traditionally favored stricter immigration policies, emphasizing border security and law enforcement. The Democratic Party prefers a more relaxed, humane and orderly immigration policy, which is also one of its main strategies to win votes, especially in the context of the rapid growth of minority populations. This year is an election year, and the immigration issue will undoubtedly be the main battlefield that stirs up the election and launches political games. Typically in elections, Republicans use immigration issues to appeal to conservative voters, especially those concerned about border security and law and order. The Democratic Party is trying to consolidate its base through immigration policy reform, especially to win the support of Hispanics and other minority voters. Polls show that generally the American people are still open to immigration, but they are highly polarized. Getting a handle on immigration is key to winning swing states. The most important and direct daily impact of large-scale immigration comes from the economic aspect, and is first expressed through the labor market. Immigration mainly provides more labor force in three aspects, including population increase, higher proportion of working-age population and higher labor force participation rate. New immigrants are different from the native labor force in skill levels and occupational fields. The job market has a dynamic absorption capacity for immigrants, and immigrants also have the ability to create careers. Therefore, from a macro perspective, it is not proven that immigration significantly increases the unemployment rate in the United States. We measured the impact of immigration on the U.S. labor market based on the capital-labor model, using U.S. data from 1951 to 1970 (before the United States restarted its immigration wave), and found that legal immigration did not significantly drag down the U.S. labor market. Of course, the impact of illegal immigration is slightly different and more complex, particularly in low-skilled and seasonal jobs, and may create competitive pressures on wages and employment opportunities for native low-skilled workers. Whether immigration consumes more social welfare involves many aspects such as education, medical care, social services and public security. Immigrants use various social services, put pressure on state and local government finances, and also make a positive contribution to the finances through taxes, which help support public services and infrastructure. Looking around the world, the political and social impact of the immigration issue goes far beyond just the United States. At present, Europe is still a favored destination for immigrants. This year is the year of the European Parliament election. In the context of frequent geopolitical conflicts, the EU needs to be more careful to prevent a recurrence of events similar to the \"2015 refugee crisis\". The test faced by East Asian countries on the immigration issue may seem mild, but it is more related to the fundamentals of economic development. Especially in the age of aging, how non-traditional immigrant-receiving countries such as Japan and South Korea launch more attractive and targeted immigration policies is crucial to future development prospects. The immigration policies of ASEAN countries are still conservative, and the flow of people mainly occurs within the region, which is reflected in the cross-border flow of labor, especially low-income labor. This part of the labor migration also supports the rapid economic development of the entire region, helps mediate the impact of population aging, and fills the vacancies of domestic workers in certain fields. Risk warning 1. Risk of overseas economic recession 2. Risk of geopolitics 3. Risk of polling error', 'authorid': UUID('5552c03d-9fbb-5306-abfb-ead5d1f48f63'), 'sentimentScore': -0.5090962424874306, 'sentimentLabel': '-'}\n", - "{'ResponseMetadata': {'RequestId': '85BU2GO1D4DKB4N1BDB0F0MVARVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'HTTPStatusCode': 200, 'HTTPHeaders': {'server': 'Server', 'date': 'Fri, 15 Mar 2024 10:28:41 GMT', 'content-type': 'application/x-amz-json-1.0', 'content-length': '2', 'connection': 'keep-alive', 'x-amzn-requestid': '85BU2GO1D4DKB4N1BDB0F0MVARVV4KQNSO5AEMVJF66Q9ASUAAJG', 'x-amz-crc32': '2745614147'}, 'RetryAttempts': 0}}\n" - ] - } - ], - "source": [ - "reportList = []\n", - "\n", - "\n", - "today = datetime.today().strftime('%Y-%m-%d')\n", - "beginDate = (datetime.today() - timedelta(days=90)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')\n", - "i = 0\n", - "while i > -1:\n", - " url = \"https://reportapi.eastmoney.com/report/jg\"\n", - " params = {\n", - " \"cb\": \"datatable8544623\",\n", - " \"pageSize\": \"100\",\n", - " \"beginTime\": beginDate,\n", - " \"endTime\": today,\n", - " \"pageNo\": i,\n", - " \"qType\": \"3\",\n", - " }\n", - " url = url + \"?\" + \"&\".join(f\"{key}={value}\" for key, value in params.items())\n", - " print(url)\n", - " content = fetch_url(url)\n", - " if content:\n", - " start_index = content.find(\"(\")\n", - " if start_index != -1:\n", - " result = content[start_index + 1: -1]\n", - " else:\n", - " result = content\n", - " reportinfo = json.loads(result)\n", - " if reportinfo[\"size\"] > 0:\n", - " i = i + 1\n", - " for report in reportinfo['data']:\n", - " try:\n", - " url = f\"https://data.eastmoney.com/report/zw_macresearch.jshtml?encodeUrl={report['encodeUrl']}\"\n", - " req = urllib.request.urlopen(url)\n", - " text = req.read()\n", - " html_text = text.decode(\"utf-8\")\n", - " page = etree.HTML(html_text)\n", - " content = encode(page.xpath(\"//div[contains(@class, 'ctx-content')]//p\"))\n", - " reporturl = encode(page.xpath(\"//a[contains(@class, 'pdf-link')]/@href\"))\n", - " report['url'] = url\n", - " if report['orgSName'] == \"''\":\n", - " report['site'] = translator.translate(report['orgSName'], dest='en').text\n", - " report['originalSite'] = report['orgSName']\n", - " else:\n", - " report['site'] = translator.translate(report['orgName'], dest='en').text\n", - " report['originalSite'] = report['orgSName']\n", - " report['reporturl'] = reporturl\n", - " report['title'] = translator.translate(report['title'], dest='en').text\n", - " report['originalTitle'] = report['title']\n", - " report['author'] = translator.translate(report['researcher'], dest='en').text\n", - " report['originalAuthor'] = report['researcher']\n", - " report['originalContent'] = content\n", - " report['content'] = translator.translate(content, dest='en').text\n", - " report['authorid'] = uuid.uuid5(uuid.NAMESPACE_OID, report['author'])\n", - " report['publishDate'] = datemodifier(report['publishDate'])\n", - " report['id'] = uuid.uuid5(uuid.NAMESPACE_OID, report['title']+report['publishDate'])\n", - " label_dict = {\n", - " \"positive\": \"+\",\n", - " \"negative\": \"-\",\n", - " \"neutral\": \"0\",\n", - " }\n", - " sentiment_score = 0\n", - " maximum_value = 0\n", - " raw_sentiment = analyzer(report['content'][:512], return_all_scores=True)\n", - " sentiment_label = None\n", - " for sentiment_dict in raw_sentiment[0]:\n", - " value = sentiment_dict[\"score\"]\n", - " if value > maximum_value:\n", - " sentiment_label = sentiment_dict[\"label\"]\n", - " maximum_value = value\n", - " if sentiment_dict[\"label\"] == \"positive\":\n", - " sentiment_score = sentiment_score + value\n", - " if sentiment_dict[\"label\"] == \"negative\":\n", - " sentiment_score = sentiment_score - value\n", - " else:\n", - " sentiment_score = sentiment_score + 0\n", - " report['sentimentScore'] = sentiment_score\n", - " report['sentimentLabel'] = label_dict[sentiment_label]\n", - " print(report)\n", - " upsert_content(report)\n", - " reportList.append(report)\n", - " except Exception as error:\n", - " print(error)\n", - " else:\n", - " print(reportinfo)\n", - " i = -1\n", - " else:\n", - " print(\"Failed to fetch URL:\", url)\n" - ] - }, - { - "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": null, - "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [ - { - "data": { - "text/html": [ - "
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0edf8968b-79e9-50a9-bad0-d4a1a8a4a2e9Information Accessibility Trends (Issue 2, 2024)Institute of Industry and Planning, Digital Ma...中国信息通信研究院80635291中国信通院2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmQnpPs7nePPY8D67Qgka0uU=产业与规划研究所,数字化管理研究部...China Academy of Information and Communication...中国信通院https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827...Information Accessibility Trends (Issue 2, 2024)产业与规划研究所,数字化管理研究部部委动态工业和信息化部指导发布互联网应用适老化优秀案例集2月1日，中国信息通信研究院、数字适...Ministries and Commissions News The Ministry o...fc3026bc-fccb-5556-b786-e882668b0f900.1761250
13daca595-311e-5d82-8422-3dc6874d6aa1Focus on the two sessions, high-end manufactur...Wang Yang, Ning Lijie联合资信评估股份有限公司80002172联合资信2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmeFAp7mt3UIS44pLyZa9/1M=王阳,宁立杰...United Credit Rating Co., Ltd.联合资信https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827...Focus on the two sessions, high-end manufactur...王阳,宁立杰2023年政府工作任务中，“加快建设现代化产业体系”位于第二位，在当前科技产业变革蓄势待发的...Among the government work tasks in 2023, \"acce...6572575b-a871-5c81-a50c-de577f7f85830.2047610
2c10a76dc-1782-508f-870b-c26e59d651622023 Urban Basic and Public Service APP Traffi...TMT Beijing Special Team艾瑞股份80365131艾瑞股份2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmWls7UAiuvlRLZo7zOC4eiQ=TMT北京专项组...iResearch艾瑞股份https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827...2023 Urban Basic and Public Service APP Traffi...TMT北京专项组城市基础及公共服务类应用整体发展现状：截至2023年末，中国移动互联网月独立设备数已连续数月...The overall development status of urban basic ...6dd93ba4-3651-5f77-81f5-1d8a522ee5250.819250+
3651af450-4440-5e5c-b6fa-403932013c9cLiquidity Tracking Weekly ReportXu Ying, Lin Yonglu麦高证券有限责任公司80049237麦高证券2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmUxggl1sNKQ5zPB0lIeQXm8=徐滢,林永绿...Mago Securities Co., Ltd.麦高证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827...Liquidity Tracking Weekly Report徐滢,林永绿上周公开市场净投放6320亿元，本周有11640亿元逆回购到期上周（2024年2月26日—2...Last week, there was a net investment of 632 b...117b2061-d9f1-5a06-93ac-5937039d112f-0.0321840
418a9f5c1-3459-57f9-8011-4a65a093e280U.S. Economy: Retail sales slow, goods inflati...Ye Bingnan, Liu Zehui招银国际金融有限公司80027629招银国际2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmWfm2y+JTvZVfMtHhGqUqH0=叶丙南,刘泽晖...CMB International Capital Co., Ltd.招银国际https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826...U.S. Economy: Retail sales slow, goods inflati...叶丙南,刘泽晖美国2月零售环比增长0.6%，低于市场预期的0.8%，过去两月增速大幅下修，显示商品消费温和...U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-m...08f97a71-1879-5f33-a1aa-79c7a17d8bf9-0.872775-
5f17cdd71-1c69-583d-98d5-c1bb7d4a8e04Macro Research Weekly Report: The two sessions...Xu Ying麦高证券有限责任公司80049237麦高证券2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmTzrYX2XbHtMAZKyAElN9uI=徐滢...Mago Securities Co., Ltd.麦高证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826...Macro Research Weekly Report: The two sessions...徐滢上周国内主要新闻：1.中国人民银行召开做好金融五篇大文章工作座谈会。2.西班牙巴塞罗那召开的...Main domestic news last week: 1. The People's ...a7f043a0-c180-553f-9a30-81d8998aa3b60.1061780
6ff46ab96-736c-5a56-9887-f8a6919ec107International data tracking: U.S. non-farm emp...Xu Jingya,Cao Shiqi南京证券股份有限公司80000051南京证券2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmecUz+CB3G84obpf5YZ+tIs=徐静雅,曹世棋...Nanjing Securities Co., Ltd.南京证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826...International data tracking: U.S. non-farm emp...徐静雅,曹世棋美国非农就业降温。美国2月新增非农就业人数超预期，在前值下修下实现增长，但有所降温。2月美国...U.S. non-farm employment has cooled. The numbe...b2efc2af-3d99-51ba-8361-3770c0b4d165-0.756873-
76ce54411-7811-51ae-8f57-5b185dace414High-tech manufacturing macro weekly report: G...Shao Xingyu, Dong Dezhi国信证券股份有限公司80000007国信证券2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmRro+rnJkh3oxCK1KjKDlec=邵兴宇,董德志...Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.国信证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826...High-tech manufacturing macro weekly report: G...邵兴宇,董德志核心观点国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数转跌为涨。截至2024年3月9日当周，国信周频高技术制造...Core view: Guosen's weekly high-tech manufactu...326df97e-9b51-50f7-9a96-c9f92117a3260.921982+
83ce94f65-645b-5b51-aad4-b76f112339dbComments on trade data from January to Februar...Feng Lin东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司80117870东方金诚2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmdBrUzImJkJF7JT0/Js2pI4=冯琳...Oriental Jincheng International Credit Rating ...东方金诚https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826...Comments on trade data from January to Februar...冯琳事件：根据海关部署公布的数据，以美元计价，2024年1-2月出口额同比增长7.1%，2023...事件：根据海关部署公布的数据，以美元计价，2024年1-2月出口额同比增长7.1%，2023...c7e74489-0cfa-5b6c-bf86-df5a0ef5adbc-0.0005200
900562b30-e941-5ce0-95d1-fe0187d078c1Digital economy: empowering breeding with tech...Xie Zhiyou中国银河证券股份有限公司80000135中国银河2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmRvLNjMaxFOJfRQcWiiVYjk=谢芝优...China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.中国银河https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826...Digital economy: empowering breeding with tech...谢芝优核心观点：我国乡村数字经济迈入新阶段，数字养殖重视度提升。我国自2015年开始对乡村数字经济...Core point of view: my country's rural digital...71940778-e8ec-575a-8e06-60a8ffce80d70.588547+
10d528eff2-c7e1-5d7e-b739-9de9dcec80ec2024 Overseas Economic Annual Outlook: Recessi...Kangmingyi东兴证券股份有限公司80114781东兴证券2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSW2syV/v7kvh1gxB71uhH0Q=康明怡...Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd.东兴证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626753...2024 Overseas Economic Annual Outlook: Recessi...康明怡提纲海外衰退推迟：消费动能仍在，仍可支撑短期经济，投资短期止跌略有回升。实体经济：全球商品库...Outline: Overseas recession is postponed: cons...3f2797dd-6eba-5070-8041-b1ca733a1529-0.2635140
111be88e2c-4580-5b1e-9a79-b67eeda841022024 US Election Express (4): The battle for t...Wei Wei, Zhou Chang平安证券股份有限公司80000037平安证券2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSeJiuAAlvXahQ2mD74UUmJE=魏伟,周畅...Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.平安证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626753...2024 US Election Express (4): The battle for t...魏伟,周畅特朗普与拜登各自提前锁定党内提名资格，但初��过程也凸显出双方的竞选隐忧。截止当地时间3月12...Trump and Biden each secured their party nomin...34e7baf4-e205-5137-b5ef-d1ca6bacf1180.0561910
12cf8d09d4-493f-56be-8ad0-24104d9e7cc1Commentary on U.S. February CPI data: U.S. inf...Kangmingyi东兴证券股份有限公司80114781东兴证券2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSaErKvYQKkbspLkB4hXOJj8=康明怡...Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd.东兴证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626727...Commentary on U.S. February CPI data: U.S. inf...康明怡事件：美国2月CPI环比0.4%，预期0.4%，前值0.3%；同比3.2%，预期3.1%，前...Event: The U.S. CPI in February was 0.4% month...3f2797dd-6eba-5070-8041-b1ca733a1529-0.907498-
139421fa78-5324-5174-9aec-16a645cc89ddComments on price data in February 2024: CPI r...Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli上海证券有限责任公司80000155上海证券2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSehgTGHzoFRmhIN0yMfpXuk=胡月晓,陈彦利...Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.上海证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626723...Comments on price data in February 2024: CPI r...胡月晓,陈彦利主要观点CPI回正，PPI稳中偏弱2月CPI受春节效应影响，食品以及出行娱乐等服务价格上涨突...Main point: CPI returned to positive, while PP...23836b0d-75e0-5a50-a109-862fde53e3bf0.892510+
147987a7ee-e645-52e5-9450-83bcea4db4dfMacro View: Falling Inflation Isn’t Smooth Sai...Huang Fusheng, Li Qi, Gao Xiaojie中邮证券有限责任公司80036717中邮证券2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankScrO2GKcqQqrGQf12MncLuY=黄付生,李起,高晓洁...China Post Securities Co., Ltd.中邮证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626722...Macro View: Falling Inflation Isn’t Smooth Sai...黄付生,李起,高晓洁核心观点2月美国CPI略超预期的主要因素在于能源价格降幅的收窄，其他主要分项，尤其是核心CP...Core view: The main factor behind the slightly...e2348d66-fa4f-5ba2-ba82-ccc397343672-0.922310-
15c9b749d0-64a1-5b9c-ad44-83ea1dc66886Central Bank Operation DailyLi Mingyu新湖期货股份有限公司80030099新湖期货2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSRCxH18PQ3zKXhX1SzxbE/w=李明玉...Xinhu Futures Co., Ltd.新湖期货https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626713...Central Bank Operation Daily李明玉公开市场操作：3月14日中国央行今日进行30亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.80%，与此...Open market operations: On March 14, the Peopl...06615761-5e26-57d2-b056-2b9f0d8913bd0.0257800
16b147319d-3004-52fb-9650-c33c27f006bfU.S. inflation remained resilient in February ...Jin Xiaowen浦银国际证券有限公司81070432浦银国际证券2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSSnpzNeorwYDhOZqzyHvjdo=金晓雯...Shanghai Pudong International Securities Co., ...浦银国际证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626704...U.S. inflation remained resilient in February ...金晓雯美国核心环比通胀率2月大致持平，但强于预期。环比来看，核心通胀回落0.03个百分点到0.36...U.S. core month-on-month inflation was roughly...777b0405-2b18-5046-a5d4-5ba161bb71cc-0.826978-
175338d196-70d3-5695-baf8-f00a88cdc314Commentary on February US CPI data: Stagnant “...Zhao Wei, Chen Dafei, Zhao Yu国金证券股份有限公司10000082国金证券2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSbuB0UOh7bto6cOvwwKGlQ8=赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇...China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.国金证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626700...Commentary on February US CPI data: Stagnant “...赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇事件：美国2月CPI（季调后）同比3.2%，预期3.1%，前值3.1%；CPI环比0.4%，...Event: The U.S. CPI (seasonally adjusted) in F...5561e32c-d3e7-5cc0-a5d5-33281e23a919-0.932778-
18f875107e-94be-5db6-8137-86d2b6b7d3a6February U.S. CPI Data Flash ReportMacro Finance Team国投安信期货有限公司80066669国投安信期货2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSTGpVLDdlnczXh0ehvEyJTY=宏观金融团队...SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.国投安信期货https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626699...February U.S. CPI Data Flash Report宏观金融团队美国2月CPI同比增3.2%，高于预期的3.1%，前值为3.1%。美国2月CPI环比增0.4...The U.S. CPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year in...d4813736-c001-5f5c-bd84-39fcb960b66d0.198821+
19dca393dc-6b71-5deb-980e-b62995247500Macro research: Observing the marginal decline...Yuanno中邮证券有限责任公司80036717中邮证券2024-03-14/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEIiqES0GliG0nMihyVBlYK8=袁野...China Post Securities Co., Ltd.中邮证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626673...Macro research: Observing the marginal decline...袁野核心观点能源、房租推升通胀超预期，核心通胀边际回落。继1月美国CPI超预期之后，2月CPI再...Core view: Energy and housing rents pushed up ...41b3960d-9709-5ae8-b077-aad17d16ee4a0.860932+
20edf8968b-79e9-50a9-bad0-d4a1a8a4a2e9Information Accessibility Trends (Issue 2, 2024)Institute of Industry and Planning, Digital Ma...中国信息通信研究院80635291中国信通院2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmQnpPs7nePPY8D67Qgka0uU=产业与规划研究所,数字化管理研究部...China Academy of Information and Communication...中国信通院https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827...Information Accessibility Trends (Issue 2, 2024)产业与规划研究所,数字化管理研究部部委动态工业和信息化部指导发布互联网应用适老化优秀案例集2月1日，中国信息通信研究院、数字适...Ministries and Commissions News The Ministry o...fc3026bc-fccb-5556-b786-e882668b0f900.2075870
213daca595-311e-5d82-8422-3dc6874d6aa1Focus on the two sessions, high-end manufactur...Wang Yang, Ning Lijie联合资信评估股份有限公司80002172联合资信2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmeFAp7mt3UIS44pLyZa9/1M=王阳,宁立杰...United Credit Rating Co., Ltd.联合资信https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827...Focus on the two sessions, high-end manufactur...王阳,宁立杰2023年政府工作任务中，“加快建设现代化产业体系”位于第二位，在当前科技产业变革蓄势待发的...Among the government work tasks in 2023, \"acce...6572575b-a871-5c81-a50c-de577f7f85830.2047610
22c10a76dc-1782-508f-870b-c26e59d651622023 Urban Basic and Public Service APP Traffi...TMT Beijing Special Team艾瑞股份80365131艾瑞股份2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmWls7UAiuvlRLZo7zOC4eiQ=TMT北京专项组...iResearch艾瑞股份https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827...2023 Urban Basic and Public Service APP Traffi...TMT北京专项组城市基础及公共服务类应用整体发展现状：截至2023年末，中国移动互联网月独立设备数已连续数月...The overall development status of urban basic ...6dd93ba4-3651-5f77-81f5-1d8a522ee5250.819250+
23651af450-4440-5e5c-b6fa-403932013c9cLiquidity Tracking Weekly ReportXu Ying, Lin Yonglu麦高证券有限责任公司80049237麦高证券2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmUxggl1sNKQ5zPB0lIeQXm8=徐滢,林永绿...Mago Securities Co., Ltd.麦高证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626827...Liquidity Tracking Weekly Report徐滢,林永绿上周公开市场净投���6320亿元，本周有11640亿元逆回购到期上周（2024年2月26日—2...Last week, there was a net investment of 632 b...117b2061-d9f1-5a06-93ac-5937039d112f-0.0321840
2418a9f5c1-3459-57f9-8011-4a65a093e280U.S. Economy: Retail sales slow, goods inflati...Ye Bingnan, Liu Zehui招银国际金融有限公司80027629招银国际2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmWfm2y+JTvZVfMtHhGqUqH0=叶丙南,刘泽晖...CMB International Capital Co., Ltd.招银国际https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826...U.S. Economy: Retail sales slow, goods inflati...叶丙南,刘泽晖美国2月零售环比增长0.6%，低于市场预期的0.8%，过去两月增速大幅下修，显示商品消费温和...U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-m...08f97a71-1879-5f33-a1aa-79c7a17d8bf9-0.872775-
25f17cdd71-1c69-583d-98d5-c1bb7d4a8e04Macro Research Weekly Report: The two sessions...Xu Ying麦高证券有限责任公司80049237麦高证券2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmTzrYX2XbHtMAZKyAElN9uI=徐滢...Mago Securities Co., Ltd.麦高证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826...Macro Research Weekly Report: The two sessions...徐滢上周国内主要新闻：1.中国人民银行召开做好金融五篇大文章工作座谈会。2.西班牙巴塞罗那召开的...Main domestic news last week: 1. The People's ...a7f043a0-c180-553f-9a30-81d8998aa3b60.1061780
26ff46ab96-736c-5a56-9887-f8a6919ec107International data tracking: U.S. non-farm emp...Xu Jingya,Cao Shiqi南京证券股份有限公司80000051南京证券2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmecUz+CB3G84obpf5YZ+tIs=徐静雅,曹世棋...Nanjing Securities Co., Ltd.南京证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826...International data tracking: U.S. non-farm emp...徐静雅,曹世棋美国非农就业降温。美国2月新增非农就业人数超预期，在前值下修下实现增长，但有所降温。2月美国...U.S. non-farm employment has cooled. The numbe...b2efc2af-3d99-51ba-8361-3770c0b4d165-0.756873-
27df22f15e-d15d-51dd-8a0a-c0e26e416f8fHigh-tech Manufacturing Macro Weekly Report: G...Shao Xingyu, Dong Dezhi国信证券股份有限公司80000007国信证券2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmRro+rnJkh3oxCK1KjKDlec=邵兴宇,董德志...Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.国信证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826...High-tech Manufacturing Macro Weekly Report: G...邵兴宇,董德志核心���点国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数转跌为涨。截至2024年3月9日当周，国信周频高技术制造...Core view: Guosen's weekly high-tech manufactu...326df97e-9b51-50f7-9a96-c9f92117a3260.921982+
283ce94f65-645b-5b51-aad4-b76f112339dbComments on trade data from January to Februar...Feng Lin东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司80117870东方金诚2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmdBrUzImJkJF7JT0/Js2pI4=冯琳...Oriental Jincheng International Credit Rating ...东方金诚https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826...Comments on trade data from January to Februar...冯琳事件：根据海关部署公布的数据，以美元计价，2024年1-2月出口额同比增长7.1%，2023...事件：根据海关部署公布的数据，以美元计价，2024年1-2月出口额同比增长7.1%，2023...c7e74489-0cfa-5b6c-bf86-df5a0ef5adbc-0.0005200
2900562b30-e941-5ce0-95d1-fe0187d078c1Digital economy: empowering breeding with tech...Xie Zhiyou中国银河证券股份有限公司80000135中国银河2024-03-15/aS8w+eETwytu3VI4T6zmRvLNjMaxFOJfRQcWiiVYjk=谢芝优...China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.中国银河https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403151626826...Digital economy: empowering breeding with tech...谢芝优核心观点：我国乡村数字经济迈入新阶段，数字养殖重视度提升。我国自2015年开始对乡村数字经济...Core point of view: my country's rural digital...71940778-e8ec-575a-8e06-60a8ffce80d70.588547+
30d528eff2-c7e1-5d7e-b739-9de9dcec80ec2024 Overseas Economic Annual Outlook: Recessi...Kangmingyi东兴证券股份有限公司80114781东兴证券2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSW2syV/v7kvh1gxB71uhH0Q=康明怡...Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd.东兴证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626753...2024 Overseas Economic Annual Outlook: Recessi...康明怡提纲海外衰退推迟：消费动能仍在，仍可支撑短期经济，投资短期止跌略有回升。实体经济：全球商品库...Outline: Overseas recession is postponed: cons...3f2797dd-6eba-5070-8041-b1ca733a1529-0.2635140
311be88e2c-4580-5b1e-9a79-b67eeda841022024 US Election Express (4): The battle for t...Wei Wei, Zhou Chang平安证券股份有限公司80000037平安证券2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSeJiuAAlvXahQ2mD74UUmJE=魏伟,周畅...Ping An Securities Co., Ltd.平安证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626753...2024 US Election Express (4): The battle for t...魏伟,周畅特朗普与拜登各自提前锁定党内提名资格，但初选过程也凸显出双方的竞选隐忧。截止当地时间3月12...Trump and Biden each secured their party nomin...34e7baf4-e205-5137-b5ef-d1ca6bacf1180.0561910
32cf8d09d4-493f-56be-8ad0-24104d9e7cc1Commentary on U.S. February CPI data: U.S. inf...Kangmingyi东兴证券股份有限公司80114781东兴证券2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSaErKvYQKkbspLkB4hXOJj8=康明怡...Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd.东兴证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626727...Commentary on U.S. February CPI data: U.S. inf...康明怡事件：美国2月CPI环比0.4%，预期0.4%，前值0.3%；同比3.2%，预期3.1%，前...Event: The U.S. CPI in February was 0.4% month...3f2797dd-6eba-5070-8041-b1ca733a1529-0.907498-
339421fa78-5324-5174-9aec-16a645cc89ddComments on price data in February 2024: CPI r...Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli上海证券有限责任公司80000155上海证券2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSehgTGHzoFRmhIN0yMfpXuk=胡月晓,陈彦利...Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd.上海证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626723...Comments on price data in February 2024: CPI r...胡月晓,陈彦利主要观点CPI回正，PPI稳中偏弱2月CPI受春节效应影响，食品以及出行娱乐等服务价格上涨突...Main point: CPI returned to positive, while PP...23836b0d-75e0-5a50-a109-862fde53e3bf0.892510+
347987a7ee-e645-52e5-9450-83bcea4db4dfMacro View: Falling Inflation Isn’t Smooth Sai...Huang Fusheng, Li Qi, Gao Xiaojie中邮证券有限责任公司80036717中邮证券2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankScrO2GKcqQqrGQf12MncLuY=黄付生,李起,高晓洁...China Post Securities Co., Ltd.中邮证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626722...Macro View: Falling Inflation Isn’t Smooth Sai...黄付生,李起,高晓洁核心观点2月美国CPI略超预期的主要因素在于能源价格降幅的收窄，其他主要分项，尤其是核心CP...Core view: The main factor behind the slightly...e2348d66-fa4f-5ba2-ba82-ccc397343672-0.922310-
35c9b749d0-64a1-5b9c-ad44-83ea1dc66886Central Bank Operation DailyLi Mingyu新湖期货股份有限公司80030099新湖期货2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSRCxH18PQ3zKXhX1SzxbE/w=李明玉...Xinhu Futures Co., Ltd.新湖期货https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626713...Central Bank Operation Daily李明玉公开市场操作：3月14日中国央行今日进行30亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.80%，与此...Open market operations: On March 14, the Peopl...06615761-5e26-57d2-b056-2b9f0d8913bd0.0257800
36b147319d-3004-52fb-9650-c33c27f006bfU.S. inflation remained resilient in February ...Jin Xiaowen浦银国际证券有限公司81070432浦银国际证券2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSSnpzNeorwYDhOZqzyHvjdo=金晓雯...Shanghai Pudong International Securities Co., ...浦银国际证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626704...U.S. inflation remained resilient in February ...金晓雯美国核心环比通胀率2月大致持平，但强于预期。环比来看，核心通胀回落0.03个百分点到0.36...U.S. core month-on-month inflation was roughly...777b0405-2b18-5046-a5d4-5ba161bb71cc-0.826978-
375338d196-70d3-5695-baf8-f00a88cdc314Commentary on February US CPI data: Stagnant “...Zhao Wei, Chen Dafei, Zhao Yu国金证券股份有限公司10000082国金证券2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSbuB0UOh7bto6cOvwwKGlQ8=赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇...China International Finance Securities Co., Ltd.国金证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626700...Commentary on February US CPI data: Stagnant “...赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇事件：美国2月CPI（季调后）同比3.2%，预期3.1%，前值3.1%；CPI环比0.4%，...Event: The U.S. CPI (seasonally adjusted) in F...5561e32c-d3e7-5cc0-a5d5-33281e23a919-0.932778-
38f875107e-94be-5db6-8137-86d2b6b7d3a6February U.S. CPI Data Flash ReportMacro Finance Team国投安信期货有限公司80066669国投安信期货2024-03-147Yxw5XmEZATlvg0PNankSTGpVLDdlnczXh0ehvEyJTY=宏观金融团队...SDIC Anxin Futures Co., Ltd.国投安信期货https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403141626699...February U.S. CPI Data Flash Report宏观金融团队美国2月CPI同比增3.2%，高于预期的3.1%，前值为3.1%。美国2月CPI环比增0.4...The U.S. CPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year in...d4813736-c001-5f5c-bd84-39fcb960b66d0.198821+
39dca393dc-6b71-5deb-980e-b62995247500Macro research: Observing the marginal decline...Yuanno中邮证券有限责任公司80036717中邮证券2024-03-14/phi5PHod0/KPfnKW9AKEIiqES0GliG0nMihyVBlYK8=袁野...China Post Securities Co., Ltd.中邮证券https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403131626673...Macro research: Observing the marginal decline...袁野核心观点能源���房租推升通胀超预期，核心通胀边际回落。继1月美国CPI超预期之后，2月CPI再...Core view: Energy and housing rents pushed up ...41b3960d-9709-5ae8-b077-aad17d16ee4a0.860932+
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"2 2023 Urban Basic and Public Service APP Traffi... \n", - "3 Liquidity Tracking Weekly Report \n", - "4 U.S. Economy: Retail sales slow, goods inflati... \n", - "5 Macro Research Weekly Report: The two sessions... \n", - "6 International data tracking: U.S. non-farm emp... \n", - "7 High-tech manufacturing macro weekly report: G... \n", - "8 Comments on trade data from January to Februar... \n", - "9 Digital economy: empowering breeding with tech... \n", - "10 2024 Overseas Economic Annual Outlook: Recessi... \n", - "11 2024 US Election Express (4): The battle for t... \n", - "12 Commentary on U.S. February CPI data: U.S. inf... \n", - "13 Comments on price data in February 2024: CPI r... \n", - "14 Macro View: Falling Inflation Isn’t Smooth Sai... \n", - "15 Central Bank Operation Daily \n", - "16 U.S. inflation remained resilient in February ... \n", - "17 Commentary on February US CPI data: Stagnant “... \n", - "18 February U.S. CPI Data Flash Report \n", - "19 Macro research: Observing the marginal decline... \n", - "20 Information Accessibility Trends (Issue 2, 2024) \n", - "21 Focus on the two sessions, high-end manufactur... \n", - "22 2023 Urban Basic and Public Service APP Traffi... \n", - "23 Liquidity Tracking Weekly Report \n", - "24 U.S. Economy: Retail sales slow, goods inflati... \n", - "25 Macro Research Weekly Report: The two sessions... \n", - "26 International data tracking: U.S. non-farm emp... \n", - "27 High-tech Manufacturing Macro Weekly Report: G... \n", - "28 Comments on trade data from January to Februar... \n", - "29 Digital economy: empowering breeding with tech... \n", - "30 2024 Overseas Economic Annual Outlook: Recessi... \n", - "31 2024 US Election Express (4): The battle for t... \n", - "32 Commentary on U.S. February CPI data: U.S. inf... \n", - "33 Comments on price data in February 2024: CPI r... \n", - "34 Macro View: Falling Inflation Isn’t Smooth Sai... \n", - "35 Central Bank Operation Daily \n", - "36 U.S. inflation remained resilient in February ... \n", - "37 Commentary on February US CPI data: Stagnant “... \n", - "38 February U.S. CPI Data Flash Report \n", - "39 Macro research: Observing the marginal decline... \n", - "\n", - " author orgName \\\n", - "0 Institute of Industry and Planning, Digital Ma... 中国信息通信研究院 \n", - "1 Wang Yang, Ning Lijie 联合资信评估股份有限公司 \n", - "2 TMT Beijing Special Team 艾瑞股份 \n", - "3 Xu Ying, Lin Yonglu 麦高证券有限责任公司 \n", - "4 Ye Bingnan, Liu Zehui 招银国际金融有限公司 \n", - "5 Xu Ying 麦高证券有限责任公司 \n", - "6 Xu Jingya,Cao Shiqi 南京证券股份有限公司 \n", - "7 Shao Xingyu, Dong Dezhi 国信证券股份有限公司 \n", - "8 Feng Lin 东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司 \n", - "9 Xie Zhiyou 中国银河证券股份有限公司 \n", - "10 Kangmingyi 东兴证券股份有限公司 \n", - "11 Wei Wei, Zhou Chang 平安证券股份有限公司 \n", - "12 Kangmingyi 东兴证券股份有限公司 \n", - "13 Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli 上海证券有限责任公司 \n", - "14 Huang Fusheng, Li Qi, Gao Xiaojie 中邮证券有限责任公司 \n", - "15 Li Mingyu 新湖期货股份有限公司 \n", - "16 Jin Xiaowen 浦银国际证券有限公司 \n", - "17 Zhao Wei, Chen Dafei, Zhao Yu 国金证券股份有限公司 \n", - "18 Macro Finance Team 国投安信期货有限公司 \n", - "19 Yuanno 中邮证券有限责任公司 \n", - "20 Institute of Industry and Planning, Digital Ma... 中国信息通信研究院 \n", - "21 Wang Yang, Ning Lijie 联合资信评估股份有限公司 \n", - "22 TMT Beijing Special Team 艾瑞股份 \n", - "23 Xu Ying, Lin Yonglu 麦高证券有限责任公司 \n", - "24 Ye Bingnan, Liu Zehui 招银国际金融有限公司 \n", - "25 Xu Ying 麦高证券有限责任公司 \n", - "26 Xu Jingya,Cao Shiqi 南京证券股份有限公司 \n", - "27 Shao Xingyu, Dong Dezhi 国信证券股份有限公司 \n", - "28 Feng Lin 东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司 \n", - "29 Xie Zhiyou 中国银河证券股份有限公司 \n", - "30 Kangmingyi 东兴证券股份有限公司 \n", - "31 Wei Wei, Zhou Chang 平安证券股份有限公司 \n", - "32 Kangmingyi 东兴证券股份有限公司 \n", - "33 Hu Yuexiao, Chen Yanli 上海证券有限责任公司 \n", - "34 Huang Fusheng, Li Qi, Gao Xiaojie 中邮证券有限责任公司 \n", - "35 Li Mingyu 新湖期货股份有限公司 \n", - "36 Jin Xiaowen 浦银国际证券有限公司 \n", - "37 Zhao Wei, Chen Dafei, Zhao Yu 国金证券股份有限公司 \n", - "38 Macro Finance Team 国投安信期货有限公司 \n", - "39 Yuanno 中邮证券有限责任公司 \n", - "\n", - " orgCode orgSName publishDate \\\n", - "0 80635291 中国信通院 2024-03-15 \n", - "1 80002172 联合资信 2024-03-15 \n", - "2 80365131 艾瑞股份 2024-03-15 \n", - "3 80049237 麦高证券 2024-03-15 \n", - "4 80027629 招银国际 2024-03-15 \n", - "5 80049237 麦高证券 2024-03-15 \n", - 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TMT北京专项组 \n", - "3 Liquidity Tracking Weekly Report 徐滢,林永绿 \n", - "4 U.S. Economy: Retail sales slow, goods inflati... 叶丙南,刘泽晖 \n", - "5 Macro Research Weekly Report: The two sessions... 徐滢 \n", - "6 International data tracking: U.S. non-farm emp... 徐静雅,曹世棋 \n", - "7 High-tech manufacturing macro weekly report: G... 邵兴宇,董德志 \n", - "8 Comments on trade data from January to Februar... 冯琳 \n", - "9 Digital economy: empowering breeding with tech... 谢芝优 \n", - "10 2024 Overseas Economic Annual Outlook: Recessi... 康明怡 \n", - "11 2024 US Election Express (4): The battle for t... 魏伟,周畅 \n", - "12 Commentary on U.S. February CPI data: U.S. inf... 康明怡 \n", - "13 Comments on price data in February 2024: CPI r... 胡月晓,陈彦利 \n", - "14 Macro View: Falling Inflation Isn’t Smooth Sai... 黄付生,李起,高晓洁 \n", - "15 Central Bank Operation Daily 李明玉 \n", - "16 U.S. inflation remained resilient in February ... 金晓雯 \n", - "17 Commentary on February US CPI data: Stagnant “... 赵伟,陈达飞,赵宇 \n", - "18 February U.S. CPI Data Flash Report 宏观金融团队 \n", - "19 Macro research: Observing the marginal decline... 袁野 \n", - "20 Information Accessibility Trends (Issue 2, 2024) 产业与规划研究所,数字化管理研究部 \n", - "21 Focus on the two sessions, high-end manufactur... 王阳,宁立杰 \n", - "22 2023 Urban Basic and Public Service APP Traffi... 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