Daily Papers

Score-based generative modeling with probability flow ordinary differential equations (ODEs) has achieved remarkable success in a variety of applications. While various fast ODE-based samplers have been proposed in the literature and employed in practice, the theoretical understandings about convergence properties of the probability flow ODE are still quite limited. In this paper, we provide the first non-asymptotic convergence analysis for a general class of probability flow ODE samplers in 2-Wasserstein distance, assuming accurate score estimates. We then consider various examples and establish results on the iteration complexity of the corresponding ODE-based samplers.

Consistency Models (CM) (Song et al., 2023) accelerate score-based diffusion model sampling at the cost of sample quality but lack a natural way to trade-off quality for speed. To address this limitation, we propose Consistency Trajectory Model (CTM), a generalization encompassing CM and score-based models as special cases. CTM trains a single neural network that can -- in a single forward pass -- output scores (i.e., gradients of log-density) and enables unrestricted traversal between any initial and final time along the Probability Flow Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) in a diffusion process. CTM enables the efficient combination of adversarial training and denoising score matching loss to enhance performance and achieves new state-of-the-art FIDs for single-step diffusion model sampling on CIFAR-10 (FID 1.73) and ImageNet at 64x64 resolution (FID 1.92). CTM also enables a new family of sampling schemes, both deterministic and stochastic, involving long jumps along the ODE solution trajectories. It consistently improves sample quality as computational budgets increase, avoiding the degradation seen in CM. Furthermore, unlike CM, CTM's access to the score function can streamline the adoption of established controllable/conditional generation methods from the diffusion community. This access also enables the computation of likelihood. The code is available at https://github.com/sony/ctm.

Active matter systems, from self-propelled colloids to motile bacteria, are characterized by the conversion of free energy into useful work at the microscopic scale. These systems generically involve physics beyond the reach of equilibrium statistical mechanics, and a persistent challenge has been to understand the nature of their nonequilibrium states. The entropy production rate and the magnitude of the steady-state probability current provide quantitative ways to do so by measuring the breakdown of time-reversal symmetry and the strength of nonequilibrium transport of measure. Yet, their efficient computation has remained elusive, as they depend on the system's unknown and high-dimensional probability density. Here, building upon recent advances in generative modeling, we develop a deep learning framework that estimates the score of this density. We show that the score, together with the microscopic equations of motion, gives direct access to the entropy production rate, the probability current, and their decomposition into local contributions from individual particles, spatial regions, and degrees of freedom. To represent the score, we introduce a novel, spatially-local transformer-based network architecture that learns high-order interactions between particles while respecting their underlying permutation symmetry. We demonstrate the broad utility and scalability of the method by applying it to several high-dimensional systems of interacting active particles undergoing motility-induced phase separation (MIPS). We show that a single instance of our network trained on a system of 4096 particles at one packing fraction can generalize to other regions of the phase diagram, including systems with as many as 32768 particles. We use this observation to quantify the spatial structure of the departure from equilibrium in MIPS as a function of the number of particles and the packing fraction.

Recent progress in text-to-3D generation has been achieved through the utilization of score distillation methods: they make use of the pre-trained text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models by distilling via the diffusion model training objective. However, such an approach inevitably results in the use of random timesteps at each update, which increases the variance of the gradient and ultimately prolongs the optimization process. In this paper, we propose to enhance the text-to-3D optimization by leveraging the T2I diffusion prior in the generative sampling process with a predetermined timestep schedule. To this end, we interpret text-to3D optimization as a multi-view image-to-image translation problem, and propose a solution by approximating the probability flow. By leveraging the proposed novel optimization algorithm, we design DreamFlow, a practical three-stage coarseto-fine text-to-3D optimization framework that enables fast generation of highquality and high-resolution (i.e., 1024x1024) 3D contents. For example, we demonstrate that DreamFlow is 5 times faster than the existing state-of-the-art text-to-3D method, while producing more photorealistic 3D contents. Visit our project page (https://kyungmnlee.github.io/dreamflow.github.io/) for visualizations.

Straightening the probability flow of the continuous-time generative models, such as diffusion models or flow-based models, is the key to fast sampling through the numerical solvers, existing methods learn a linear path by directly generating the probability path the joint distribution between the noise and data distribution. One key reason for the slow sampling speed of the ODE-based solvers that simulate these generative models is the global truncation error of the ODE solver, caused by the high curvature of the ODE trajectory, which explodes the truncation error of the numerical solvers in the low-NFE regime. To address this challenge, We propose a novel method called SeqRF, a learning technique that straightens the probability flow to reduce the global truncation error and hence enable acceleration of sampling and improve the synthesis quality. In both theoretical and empirical studies, we first observe the straightening property of our SeqRF. Through empirical evaluations via SeqRF over flow-based generative models, We achieve surpassing results on CIFAR-10, CelebA-64 times 64, and LSUN-Church datasets.

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

Diffusion-based imitation learning improves Behavioral Cloning (BC) on multi-modal decision-making, but comes at the cost of significantly slower inference due to the recursion in the diffusion process. It urges us to design efficient policy generators while keeping the ability to generate diverse actions. To address this challenge, we propose AdaFlow, an imitation learning framework based on flow-based generative modeling. AdaFlow represents the policy with state-conditioned ordinary differential equations (ODEs), which are known as probability flows. We reveal an intriguing connection between the conditional variance of their training loss and the discretization error of the ODEs. With this insight, we propose a variance-adaptive ODE solver that can adjust its step size in the inference stage, making AdaFlow an adaptive decision-maker, offering rapid inference without sacrificing diversity. Interestingly, it automatically reduces to a one-step generator when the action distribution is uni-modal. Our comprehensive empirical evaluation shows that AdaFlow achieves high performance with fast inference speed.

Diffusion models have exhibited excellent performance in various domains. The probability flow ordinary differential equation (ODE) of diffusion models (i.e., diffusion ODEs) is a particular case of continuous normalizing flows (CNFs), which enables deterministic inference and exact likelihood evaluation. However, the likelihood estimation results by diffusion ODEs are still far from those of the state-of-the-art likelihood-based generative models. In this work, we propose several improved techniques for maximum likelihood estimation for diffusion ODEs, including both training and evaluation perspectives. For training, we propose velocity parameterization and explore variance reduction techniques for faster convergence. We also derive an error-bounded high-order flow matching objective for finetuning, which improves the ODE likelihood and smooths its trajectory. For evaluation, we propose a novel training-free truncated-normal dequantization to fill the training-evaluation gap commonly existing in diffusion ODEs. Building upon these techniques, we achieve state-of-the-art likelihood estimation results on image datasets (2.56 on CIFAR-10, 3.43/3.69 on ImageNet-32) without variational dequantization or data augmentation.

The development of video diffusion models unveils a significant challenge: the substantial computational demands. To mitigate this challenge, we note that the reverse process of diffusion exhibits an inherent entropy-reducing nature. Given the inter-frame redundancy in video modality, maintaining full frame rates in high-entropy stages is unnecessary. Based on this insight, we propose TPDiff, a unified framework to enhance training and inference efficiency. By dividing diffusion into several stages, our framework progressively increases frame rate along the diffusion process with only the last stage operating on full frame rate, thereby optimizing computational efficiency. To train the multi-stage diffusion model, we introduce a dedicated training framework: stage-wise diffusion. By solving the partitioned probability flow ordinary differential equations (ODE) of diffusion under aligned data and noise, our training strategy is applicable to various diffusion forms and further enhances training efficiency. Comprehensive experimental evaluations validate the generality of our method, demonstrating 50% reduction in training cost and 1.5x improvement in inference efficiency.

Although diffusion models can generate remarkably high-quality samples, they are intrinsically bottlenecked by their expensive iterative sampling procedure. Consistency models (CMs) have recently emerged as a promising diffusion model distillation method, reducing the cost of sampling by generating high-fidelity samples in just a few iterations. Consistency model distillation aims to solve the probability flow ordinary differential equation (ODE) defined by an existing diffusion model. CMs are not directly trained to minimize error against an ODE solver, rather they use a more computationally tractable objective. As a way to study how effectively CMs solve the probability flow ODE, and the effect that any induced error has on the quality of generated samples, we introduce Direct CMs, which directly minimize this error. Intriguingly, we find that Direct CMs reduce the ODE solving error compared to CMs but also result in significantly worse sample quality, calling into question why exactly CMs work well in the first place. Full code is available at: https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/direct-cms.

Diffusion models have revolutionized text-to-image generation with its exceptional quality and creativity. However, its multi-step sampling process is known to be slow, often requiring tens of inference steps to obtain satisfactory results. Previous attempts to improve its sampling speed and reduce computational costs through distillation have been unsuccessful in achieving a functional one-step model. In this paper, we explore a recent method called Rectified Flow, which, thus far, has only been applied to small datasets. The core of Rectified Flow lies in its reflow procedure, which straightens the trajectories of probability flows, refines the coupling between noises and images, and facilitates the distillation process with student models. We propose a novel text-conditioned pipeline to turn Stable Diffusion (SD) into an ultra-fast one-step model, in which we find reflow plays a critical role in improving the assignment between noise and images. Leveraging our new pipeline, we create, to the best of our knowledge, the first one-step diffusion-based text-to-image generator with SD-level image quality, achieving an FID (Frechet Inception Distance) of 23.3 on MS COCO 2017-5k, surpassing the previous state-of-the-art technique, progressive distillation, by a significant margin (37.2 rightarrow 23.3 in FID). By utilizing an expanded network with 1.7B parameters, we further improve the FID to 22.4. We call our one-step models InstaFlow. On MS COCO 2014-30k, InstaFlow yields an FID of 13.1 in just 0.09 second, the best in leq 0.1 second regime, outperforming the recent StyleGAN-T (13.9 in 0.1 second). Notably, the training of InstaFlow only costs 199 A100 GPU days. Project page:~https://github.com/gnobitab/InstaFlow.

Latent Diffusion models (LDMs) have achieved remarkable results in synthesizing high-resolution images. However, the iterative sampling process is computationally intensive and leads to slow generation. Inspired by Consistency Models (song et al.), we propose Latent Consistency Models (LCMs), enabling swift inference with minimal steps on any pre-trained LDMs, including Stable Diffusion (rombach et al). Viewing the guided reverse diffusion process as solving an augmented probability flow ODE (PF-ODE), LCMs are designed to directly predict the solution of such ODE in latent space, mitigating the need for numerous iterations and allowing rapid, high-fidelity sampling. Efficiently distilled from pre-trained classifier-free guided diffusion models, a high-quality 768 x 768 2~4-step LCM takes only 32 A100 GPU hours for training. Furthermore, we introduce Latent Consistency Fine-tuning (LCF), a novel method that is tailored for fine-tuning LCMs on customized image datasets. Evaluation on the LAION-5B-Aesthetics dataset demonstrates that LCMs achieve state-of-the-art text-to-image generation performance with few-step inference. Project Page: https://latent-consistency-models.github.io/

In applications of diffusion models, controllable generation is of practical significance, but is also challenging. Current methods for controllable generation primarily focus on modifying the score function of diffusion models, while Mean Reverting (MR) Diffusion directly modifies the structure of the stochastic differential equation (SDE), making the incorporation of image conditions simpler and more natural. However, current training-free fast samplers are not directly applicable to MR Diffusion. And thus MR Diffusion requires hundreds of NFEs (number of function evaluations) to obtain high-quality samples. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm named MRS (MR Sampler) to reduce the sampling NFEs of MR Diffusion. We solve the reverse-time SDE and the probability flow ordinary differential equation (PF-ODE) associated with MR Diffusion, and derive semi-analytical solutions. The solutions consist of an analytical function and an integral parameterized by a neural network. Based on this solution, we can generate high-quality samples in fewer steps. Our approach does not require training and supports all mainstream parameterizations, including noise prediction, data prediction and velocity prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MR Sampler maintains high sampling quality with a speedup of 10 to 20 times across ten different image restoration tasks. Our algorithm accelerates the sampling procedure of MR Diffusion, making it more practical in controllable generation.

The optimization of the latents and parameters of diffusion models with respect to some differentiable metric defined on the output of the model is a challenging and complex problem. The sampling for diffusion models is done by solving either the probability flow ODE or diffusion SDE wherein a neural network approximates the score function allowing a numerical ODE/SDE solver to be used. However, naive backpropagation techniques are memory intensive, requiring the storage of all intermediate states, and face additional complexity in handling the injected noise from the diffusion term of the diffusion SDE. We propose a novel family of bespoke ODE solvers to the continuous adjoint equations for diffusion models, which we call AdjointDEIS. We exploit the unique construction of diffusion SDEs to further simplify the formulation of the continuous adjoint equations using exponential integrators. Moreover, we provide convergence order guarantees for our bespoke solvers. Significantly, we show that continuous adjoint equations for diffusion SDEs actually simplify to a simple ODE. Lastly, we demonstrate the effectiveness of AdjointDEIS for guided generation with an adversarial attack in the form of the face morphing problem. Our code will be released on our project page https://zblasingame.github.io/AdjointDEIS/

Diffusion Morphs (DiM) are a recent state-of-the-art method for creating high quality face morphs; however, they require a high number of network function evaluations (NFE) to create the morphs. We propose a new DiM pipeline, Fast-DiM, which can create morphs of a similar quality but with fewer NFE. We investigate the ODE solvers used to solve the Probability Flow ODE and the impact they have on the the creation of face morphs. Additionally, we employ an alternative method for encoding images into the latent space of the Diffusion model by solving the Probability Flow ODE as time runs forwards. Our experiments show that we can reduce the NFE by upwards of 85% in the encoding process while experiencing only 1.6\% reduction in Mated Morph Presentation Match Rate (MMPMR). Likewise, we showed we could cut NFE, in the sampling process, in half with only a maximal reduction of 0.23% in MMPMR.

We present AnimateDiff-Lightning for lightning-fast video generation. Our model uses progressive adversarial diffusion distillation to achieve new state-of-the-art in few-step video generation. We discuss our modifications to adapt it for the video modality. Furthermore, we propose to simultaneously distill the probability flow of multiple base diffusion models, resulting in a single distilled motion module with broader style compatibility. We are pleased to release our distilled AnimateDiff-Lightning model for the community's use.

Current diffusion-based super-resolution (SR) approaches achieve commendable performance at the cost of high inference overhead. Therefore, distillation techniques are utilized to accelerate the multi-step teacher model into one-step student model. Nevertheless, these methods significantly raise training costs and constrain the performance of the student model by the teacher model. To overcome these tough challenges, we propose Consistency Trajectory Matching for Super-Resolution (CTMSR), a distillation-free strategy that is able to generate photo-realistic SR results in one step. Concretely, we first formulate a Probability Flow Ordinary Differential Equation (PF-ODE) trajectory to establish a deterministic mapping from low-resolution (LR) images with noise to high-resolution (HR) images. Then we apply the Consistency Training (CT) strategy to directly learn the mapping in one step, eliminating the necessity of pre-trained diffusion model. To further enhance the performance and better leverage the ground-truth during the training process, we aim to align the distribution of SR results more closely with that of the natural images. To this end, we propose to minimize the discrepancy between their respective PF-ODE trajectories from the LR image distribution by our meticulously designed Distribution Trajectory Matching (DTM) loss, resulting in improved realism of our recovered HR images. Comprehensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methods can attain comparable or even superior capabilities on both synthetic and real datasets while maintaining minimal inference latency.

How do diffusion generative models convert pure noise into meaningful images? In a variety of pretrained diffusion models (including conditional latent space models like Stable Diffusion), we observe that the reverse diffusion process that underlies image generation has the following properties: (i) individual trajectories tend to be low-dimensional and resemble 2D `rotations'; (ii) high-variance scene features like layout tend to emerge earlier, while low-variance details tend to emerge later; and (iii) early perturbations tend to have a greater impact on image content than later perturbations. To understand these phenomena, we derive and study a closed-form solution to the probability flow ODE for a Gaussian distribution, which shows that the reverse diffusion state rotates towards a gradually-specified target on the image manifold. It also shows that generation involves first committing to an outline, and then to finer and finer details. We find that this solution accurately describes the initial phase of image generation for pretrained models, and can in principle be used to make image generation more efficient by skipping reverse diffusion steps. Finally, we use our solution to characterize the image manifold in Stable Diffusion. Our viewpoint reveals an unexpected similarity between generation by GANs and diffusion and provides a conceptual link between diffusion and image retrieval.

Diffusion-based stylization methods typically denoise from a specific partial noise state for image-to-image and video-to-video tasks. This multi-step diffusion process is computationally expensive and hinders real-world application. A promising solution to speed up the process is to obtain few-step consistency models through trajectory distillation. However, current consistency models only force the initial-step alignment between the probability flow ODE (PF-ODE) trajectories of the student and the imperfect teacher models. This training strategy can not ensure the consistency of whole trajectories. To address this issue, we propose single trajectory distillation (STD) starting from a specific partial noise state. We introduce a trajectory bank to store the teacher model's trajectory states, mitigating the time cost during training. Besides, we use an asymmetric adversarial loss to enhance the style and quality of the generated images. Extensive experiments on image and video stylization demonstrate that our method surpasses existing acceleration models in terms of style similarity and aesthetic evaluations. Our code and results will be available on the project page: https://single-trajectory-distillation.github.io.

We present a diffusion-based image morphing approach with perceptually-uniform sampling (IMPUS) that produces smooth, direct and realistic interpolations given an image pair. The embeddings of two images may lie on distinct conditioned distributions of a latent diffusion model, especially when they have significant semantic difference. To bridge this gap, we interpolate in the locally linear and continuous text embedding space and Gaussian latent space. We first optimize the endpoint text embeddings and then map the images to the latent space using a probability flow ODE. Unlike existing work that takes an indirect morphing path, we show that the model adaptation yields a direct path and suppresses ghosting artifacts in the interpolated images. To achieve this, we propose a heuristic bottleneck constraint based on a novel relative perceptual path diversity score that automatically controls the bottleneck size and balances the diversity along the path with its directness. We also propose a perceptually-uniform sampling technique that enables visually smooth changes between the interpolated images. Extensive experiments validate that our IMPUS can achieve smooth, direct, and realistic image morphing and is adaptable to several other generative tasks.

Existing customization methods require access to multiple reference examples to align pre-trained diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) with user-provided concepts. This paper aims to address the challenge of DPM customization when the only available supervision is a differentiable metric defined on the generated contents. Since the sampling procedure of DPMs involves recursive calls to the denoising UNet, na\"ive gradient backpropagation requires storing the intermediate states of all iterations, resulting in extremely high memory consumption. To overcome this issue, we propose a novel method AdjointDPM, which first generates new samples from diffusion models by solving the corresponding probability-flow ODEs. It then uses the adjoint sensitivity method to backpropagate the gradients of the loss to the models' parameters (including conditioning signals, network weights, and initial noises) by solving another augmented ODE. To reduce numerical errors in both the forward generation and gradient backpropagation processes, we further reparameterize the probability-flow ODE and augmented ODE as simple non-stiff ODEs using exponential integration. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of AdjointDPM on three interesting tasks: converting visual effects into identification text embeddings, finetuning DPMs for specific types of stylization, and optimizing initial noise to generate adversarial samples for security auditing.

We develop a framework for non-asymptotic analysis of deterministic samplers used for diffusion generative modeling. Several recent works have analyzed stochastic samplers using tools like Girsanov's theorem and a chain rule variant of the interpolation argument. Unfortunately, these techniques give vacuous bounds when applied to deterministic samplers. We give a new operational interpretation for deterministic sampling by showing that one step along the probability flow ODE can be expressed as two steps: 1) a restoration step that runs gradient ascent on the conditional log-likelihood at some infinitesimally previous time, and 2) a degradation step that runs the forward process using noise pointing back towards the current iterate. This perspective allows us to extend denoising diffusion implicit models to general, non-linear forward processes. We then develop the first polynomial convergence bounds for these samplers under mild conditions on the data distribution.

Latent Consistency Model (LCM) extends the Consistency Model to the latent space and leverages the guided consistency distillation technique to achieve impressive performance in accelerating text-to-image synthesis. However, we observed that LCM struggles to generate images with both clarity and detailed intricacy. To address this limitation, we initially delve into and elucidate the underlying causes. Our investigation identifies that the primary issue stems from errors in three distinct areas. Consequently, we introduce Trajectory Consistency Distillation (TCD), which encompasses trajectory consistency function and strategic stochastic sampling. The trajectory consistency function diminishes the distillation errors by broadening the scope of the self-consistency boundary condition and endowing the TCD with the ability to accurately trace the entire trajectory of the Probability Flow ODE. Additionally, strategic stochastic sampling is specifically designed to circumvent the accumulated errors inherent in multi-step consistency sampling, which is meticulously tailored to complement the TCD model. Experiments demonstrate that TCD not only significantly enhances image quality at low NFEs but also yields more detailed results compared to the teacher model at high NFEs.

Conditioning image generation facilitates seamless editing and the creation of photorealistic images. However, conditioning on noisy or Out-of-Distribution (OoD) images poses significant challenges, particularly in balancing fidelity to the input and realism of the output. We introduce Confident Ordinary Differential Editing (CODE), a novel approach for image synthesis that effectively handles OoD guidance images. Utilizing a diffusion model as a generative prior, CODE enhances images through score-based updates along the probability-flow Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) trajectory. This method requires no task-specific training, no handcrafted modules, and no assumptions regarding the corruptions affecting the conditioning image. Our method is compatible with any diffusion model. Positioned at the intersection of conditional image generation and blind image restoration, CODE operates in a fully blind manner, relying solely on a pre-trained generative model. Our method introduces an alternative approach to blind restoration: instead of targeting a specific ground truth image based on assumptions about the underlying corruption, CODE aims to increase the likelihood of the input image while maintaining fidelity. This results in the most probable in-distribution image around the input. Our contributions are twofold. First, CODE introduces a novel editing method based on ODE, providing enhanced control, realism, and fidelity compared to its SDE-based counterpart. Second, we introduce a confidence interval-based clipping method, which improves CODE's effectiveness by allowing it to disregard certain pixels or information, thus enhancing the restoration process in a blind manner. Experimental results demonstrate CODE's effectiveness over existing methods, particularly in scenarios involving severe degradation or OoD inputs.

Animating clipart images with seamless motion while maintaining visual fidelity and temporal coherence presents significant challenges. Existing methods, such as AniClipart, effectively model spatial deformations but often fail to ensure smooth temporal transitions, resulting in artifacts like abrupt motions and geometric distortions. Similarly, text-to-video (T2V) and image-to-video (I2V) models struggle to handle clipart due to the mismatch in statistical properties between natural video and clipart styles. This paper introduces FlexiClip, a novel approach designed to overcome these limitations by addressing the intertwined challenges of temporal consistency and geometric integrity. FlexiClip extends traditional B\'ezier curve-based trajectory modeling with key innovations: temporal Jacobians to correct motion dynamics incrementally, continuous-time modeling via probability flow ODEs (pfODEs) to mitigate temporal noise, and a flow matching loss inspired by GFlowNet principles to optimize smooth motion transitions. These enhancements ensure coherent animations across complex scenarios involving rapid movements and non-rigid deformations. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of FlexiClip in generating animations that are not only smooth and natural but also structurally consistent across diverse clipart types, including humans and animals. By integrating spatial and temporal modeling with pre-trained video diffusion models, FlexiClip sets a new standard for high-quality clipart animation, offering robust performance across a wide range of visual content. Project Page: https://creative-gen.github.io/flexiclip.github.io/

Diffusion models have found widespread adoption in various areas. However, their sampling process is slow because it requires hundreds to thousands of network evaluations to emulate a continuous process defined by differential equations. In this work, we use neural operators, an efficient method to solve the probability flow differential equations, to accelerate the sampling process of diffusion models. Compared to other fast sampling methods that have a sequential nature, we are the first to propose parallel decoding method that generates images with only one model forward pass. We propose diffusion model sampling with neural operator (DSNO) that maps the initial condition, i.e., Gaussian distribution, to the continuous-time solution trajectory of the reverse diffusion process. To model the temporal correlations along the trajectory, we introduce temporal convolution layers that are parameterized in the Fourier space into the given diffusion model backbone. We show our method achieves state-of-the-art FID of 4.12 for CIFAR-10 and 8.35 for ImageNet-64 in the one-model-evaluation setting.

Flow models are effective at progressively generating realistic images, but they generally struggle to capture long-range dependencies during the generation process as they compress all the information from previous time steps into a single corrupted image. To address this limitation, we propose integrating autoregressive modeling -- known for its excellence in modeling complex, high-dimensional joint probability distributions -- into flow models. During training, at each step, we construct causally-ordered sequences by sampling multiple images from the same semantic category and applying different levels of noise, where images with higher noise levels serve as causal predecessors to those with lower noise levels. This design enables the model to learn broader category-level variations while maintaining proper causal relationships in the flow process. During generation, the model autoregressively conditions the previously generated images from earlier denoising steps, forming a contextual and coherent generation trajectory. Additionally, we design a customized hybrid linear attention mechanism tailored to our modeling approach to enhance computational efficiency. Our approach, termed ARFlow, under 400k training steps, achieves 14.08 FID scores on ImageNet at 128 * 128 without classifier-free guidance, reaching 4.34 FID with classifier-free guidance 1.5, significantly outperforming the previous flow-based model SiT's 9.17 FID. Extensive ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of our modeling strategy and chunk-wise attention design.

Audio super-resolution is challenging owing to its ill-posed nature. Recently, the application of diffusion models in audio super-resolution has shown promising results in alleviating this challenge. However, diffusion-based models have limitations, primarily the necessity for numerous sampling steps, which causes significantly increased latency when synthesizing high-quality audio samples. In this paper, we propose FLowHigh, a novel approach that integrates flow matching, a highly efficient generative model, into audio super-resolution. We also explore probability paths specially tailored for audio super-resolution, which effectively capture high-resolution audio distributions, thereby enhancing reconstruction quality. The proposed method generates high-fidelity, high-resolution audio through a single-step sampling process across various input sampling rates. The experimental results on the VCTK benchmark dataset demonstrate that FLowHigh achieves state-of-the-art performance in audio super-resolution, as evaluated by log-spectral distance and ViSQOL while maintaining computational efficiency with only a single-step sampling process.

Flow-based generative models parameterize probability distributions through an invertible transformation and can be trained by maximum likelihood. Invertible residual networks provide a flexible family of transformations where only Lipschitz conditions rather than strict architectural constraints are needed for enforcing invertibility. However, prior work trained invertible residual networks for density estimation by relying on biased log-density estimates whose bias increased with the network's expressiveness. We give a tractable unbiased estimate of the log density using a "Russian roulette" estimator, and reduce the memory required during training by using an alternative infinite series for the gradient. Furthermore, we improve invertible residual blocks by proposing the use of activation functions that avoid derivative saturation and generalizing the Lipschitz condition to induced mixed norms. The resulting approach, called Residual Flows, achieves state-of-the-art performance on density estimation amongst flow-based models, and outperforms networks that use coupling blocks at joint generative and discriminative modeling.

Normalizing flows can transform a simple prior probability distribution into a more complex target distribution. Here, we evaluate the ability and efficiency of generative machine learning methods to sample the Boltzmann distribution of an atomistic model for glass-forming liquids. This is a notoriously difficult task, as it amounts to ergodically exploring the complex free energy landscape of a disordered and frustrated many-body system. We optimize a normalizing flow model to successfully transform high-temperature configurations of a dense liquid into low-temperature ones, near the glass transition. We perform a detailed comparative analysis with established enhanced sampling techniques developed in the physics literature to assess and rank the performance of normalizing flows against state-of-the-art algorithms. We demonstrate that machine learning methods are very promising, showing a large speedup over conventional molecular dynamics. Normalizing flows show performances comparable to parallel tempering and population annealing, while still falling far behind the swap Monte Carlo algorithm. Our study highlights the potential of generative machine learning models in scientific computing for complex systems, but also points to some of its current limitations and the need for further improvement.

The sampling of probability distributions specified up to a normalization constant is an important problem in both machine learning and statistical mechanics. While classical stochastic sampling methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Langevin Dynamics (LD) can suffer from slow mixing times there is a growing interest in using normalizing flows in order to learn the transformation of a simple prior distribution to the given target distribution. Here we propose a generalized and combined approach to sample target densities: Stochastic Normalizing Flows (SNF) -- an arbitrary sequence of deterministic invertible functions and stochastic sampling blocks. We show that stochasticity overcomes expressivity limitations of normalizing flows resulting from the invertibility constraint, whereas trainable transformations between sampling steps improve efficiency of pure MCMC/LD along the flow. By invoking ideas from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics we derive an efficient training procedure by which both the sampler's and the flow's parameters can be optimized end-to-end, and by which we can compute exact importance weights without having to marginalize out the randomness of the stochastic blocks. We illustrate the representational power, sampling efficiency and asymptotic correctness of SNFs on several benchmarks including applications to sampling molecular systems in equilibrium.

Flow matching (FM) is a general framework for defining probability paths via Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) to transform between noise and data samples. Recent approaches attempt to straighten these flow trajectories to generate high-quality samples with fewer function evaluations, typically through iterative rectification methods or optimal transport solutions. In this paper, we introduce Consistency Flow Matching (Consistency-FM), a novel FM method that explicitly enforces self-consistency in the velocity field. Consistency-FM directly defines straight flows starting from different times to the same endpoint, imposing constraints on their velocity values. Additionally, we propose a multi-segment training approach for Consistency-FM to enhance expressiveness, achieving a better trade-off between sampling quality and speed. Preliminary experiments demonstrate that our Consistency-FM significantly improves training efficiency by converging 4.4x faster than consistency models and 1.7x faster than rectified flow models while achieving better generation quality. Our code is available at: https://github.com/YangLing0818/consistency_flow_matching

Expanding on neural operators, we propose a novel framework for stochastic process learning across arbitrary domains. In particular, we develop operator flow matching (OFM) for learning stochastic process priors on function spaces. OFM provides the probability density of the values of any collection of points and enables mathematically tractable functional regression at new points with mean and density estimation. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art models in stochastic process learning, functional regression, and prior learning.

Simulation-free methods for training continuous-time generative models construct probability paths that go between noise distributions and individual data samples. Recent works, such as Flow Matching, derived paths that are optimal for each data sample. However, these algorithms rely on independent data and noise samples, and do not exploit underlying structure in the data distribution for constructing probability paths. We propose Multisample Flow Matching, a more general framework that uses non-trivial couplings between data and noise samples while satisfying the correct marginal constraints. At very small overhead costs, this generalization allows us to (i) reduce gradient variance during training, (ii) obtain straighter flows for the learned vector field, which allows us to generate high-quality samples using fewer function evaluations, and (iii) obtain transport maps with lower cost in high dimensions, which has applications beyond generative modeling. Importantly, we do so in a completely simulation-free manner with a simple minimization objective. We show that our proposed methods improve sample consistency on downsampled ImageNet data sets, and lead to better low-cost sample generation.

A normalizing flow models a complex probability density as an invertible transformation of a simple base density. Flows based on either coupling or autoregressive transforms both offer exact density evaluation and sampling, but rely on the parameterization of an easily invertible elementwise transformation, whose choice determines the flexibility of these models. Building upon recent work, we propose a fully-differentiable module based on monotonic rational-quadratic splines, which enhances the flexibility of both coupling and autoregressive transforms while retaining analytic invertibility. We demonstrate that neural spline flows improve density estimation, variational inference, and generative modeling of images.

Despite Flow Matching and diffusion models having emerged as powerful generative paradigms for continuous variables such as images and videos, their application to high-dimensional discrete data, such as language, is still limited. In this work, we present Discrete Flow Matching, a novel discrete flow paradigm designed specifically for generating discrete data. Discrete Flow Matching offers several key contributions: (i) it works with a general family of probability paths interpolating between source and target distributions; (ii) it allows for a generic formula for sampling from these probability paths using learned posteriors such as the probability denoiser (x-prediction) and noise-prediction (epsilon-prediction); (iii) practically, focusing on specific probability paths defined with different schedulers considerably improves generative perplexity compared to previous discrete diffusion and flow models; and (iv) by scaling Discrete Flow Matching models up to 1.7B parameters, we reach 6.7% Pass@1 and 13.4% Pass@10 on HumanEval and 6.7% Pass@1 and 20.6% Pass@10 on 1-shot MBPP coding benchmarks. Our approach is capable of generating high-quality discrete data in a non-autoregressive fashion, significantly closing the gap between autoregressive models and discrete flow models.

We introduce a new paradigm for generative modeling built on Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs), allowing us to train CNFs at unprecedented scale. Specifically, we present the notion of Flow Matching (FM), a simulation-free approach for training CNFs based on regressing vector fields of fixed conditional probability paths. Flow Matching is compatible with a general family of Gaussian probability paths for transforming between noise and data samples -- which subsumes existing diffusion paths as specific instances. Interestingly, we find that employing FM with diffusion paths results in a more robust and stable alternative for training diffusion models. Furthermore, Flow Matching opens the door to training CNFs with other, non-diffusion probability paths. An instance of particular interest is using Optimal Transport (OT) displacement interpolation to define the conditional probability paths. These paths are more efficient than diffusion paths, provide faster training and sampling, and result in better generalization. Training CNFs using Flow Matching on ImageNet leads to consistently better performance than alternative diffusion-based methods in terms of both likelihood and sample quality, and allows fast and reliable sample generation using off-the-shelf numerical ODE solvers.

Numerous biological and physical processes can be modeled as systems of interacting entities evolving continuously over time, e.g. the dynamics of communicating cells or physical particles. Learning the dynamics of such systems is essential for predicting the temporal evolution of populations across novel samples and unseen environments. Flow-based models allow for learning these dynamics at the population level - they model the evolution of the entire distribution of samples. However, current flow-based models are limited to a single initial population and a set of predefined conditions which describe different dynamics. We argue that multiple processes in natural sciences have to be represented as vector fields on the Wasserstein manifold of probability densities. That is, the change of the population at any moment in time depends on the population itself due to the interactions between samples. In particular, this is crucial for personalized medicine where the development of diseases and their respective treatment response depends on the microenvironment of cells specific to each patient. We propose Meta Flow Matching (MFM), a practical approach to integrating along these vector fields on the Wasserstein manifold by amortizing the flow model over the initial populations. Namely, we embed the population of samples using a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and use these embeddings to train a Flow Matching model. This gives MFM the ability to generalize over the initial distributions unlike previously proposed methods. We demonstrate the ability of MFM to improve prediction of individual treatment responses on a large scale multi-patient single-cell drug screen dataset.

Taming the generation outcome of state of the art Diffusion and Flow-Matching (FM) models without having to re-train a task-specific model unlocks a powerful tool for solving inverse problems, conditional generation, and controlled generation in general. In this work we introduce D-Flow, a simple framework for controlling the generation process by differentiating through the flow, optimizing for the source (noise) point. We motivate this framework by our key observation stating that for Diffusion/FM models trained with Gaussian probability paths, differentiating through the generation process projects gradient on the data manifold, implicitly injecting the prior into the optimization process. We validate our framework on linear and non-linear controlled generation problems including: image and audio inverse problems and conditional molecule generation reaching state of the art performance across all.

Flow matching in the continuous simplex has emerged as a promising strategy for DNA sequence design, but struggles to scale to higher simplex dimensions required for peptide and protein generation. We introduce Gumbel-Softmax Flow and Score Matching, a generative framework on the simplex based on a novel Gumbel-Softmax interpolant with a time-dependent temperature. Using this interpolant, we introduce Gumbel-Softmax Flow Matching by deriving a parameterized velocity field that transports from smooth categorical distributions to distributions concentrated at a single vertex of the simplex. We alternatively present Gumbel-Softmax Score Matching which learns to regress the gradient of the probability density. Our framework enables high-quality, diverse generation and scales efficiently to higher-dimensional simplices. To enable training-free guidance, we propose Straight-Through Guided Flows (STGFlow), a classifier-based guidance method that leverages straight-through estimators to steer the unconditional velocity field toward optimal vertices of the simplex. STGFlow enables efficient inference-time guidance using classifiers pre-trained on clean sequences, and can be used with any discrete flow method. Together, these components form a robust framework for controllable de novo sequence generation. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in conditional DNA promoter design, sequence-only protein generation, and target-binding peptide design for rare disease treatment.

This paper introduces Bayesian Flow Networks (BFNs), a new class of generative model in which the parameters of a set of independent distributions are modified with Bayesian inference in the light of noisy data samples, then passed as input to a neural network that outputs a second, interdependent distribution. Starting from a simple prior and iteratively updating the two distributions yields a generative procedure similar to the reverse process of diffusion models; however it is conceptually simpler in that no forward process is required. Discrete and continuous-time loss functions are derived for continuous, discretised and discrete data, along with sample generation procedures. Notably, the network inputs for discrete data lie on the probability simplex, and are therefore natively differentiable, paving the way for gradient-based sample guidance and few-step generation in discrete domains such as language modelling. The loss function directly optimises data compression and places no restrictions on the network architecture. In our experiments BFNs achieve competitive log-likelihoods for image modelling on dynamically binarized MNIST and CIFAR-10, and outperform all known discrete diffusion models on the text8 character-level language modelling task.

Advancements in space telescopes have opened new avenues for gathering vast amounts of data on exoplanet atmosphere spectra. However, accurately extracting chemical and physical properties from these spectra poses significant challenges due to the non-linear nature of the underlying physics. This paper presents novel machine learning models developed by the AstroAI team for the Ariel Data Challenge 2023, where one of the models secured the top position among 293 competitors. Leveraging Normalizing Flows, our models predict the posterior probability distribution of atmospheric parameters under different atmospheric assumptions. Moreover, we introduce an alternative model that exhibits higher performance potential than the winning model, despite scoring lower in the challenge. These findings highlight the need to reevaluate the evaluation metric and prompt further exploration of more efficient and accurate approaches for exoplanet atmosphere spectra analysis. Finally, we present recommendations to enhance the challenge and models, providing valuable insights for future applications on real observational data. These advancements pave the way for more effective and timely analysis of exoplanet atmospheric properties, advancing our understanding of these distant worlds.

Normalizing flows (NFs) have become a prominent method for deep generative models that allow for an analytic probability density estimation and efficient synthesis. However, a flow-based network is considered to be inefficient in parameter complexity because of reduced expressiveness of bijective mapping, which renders the models unfeasibly expensive in terms of parameters. We present an alternative parameterization scheme called NanoFlow, which uses a single neural density estimator to model multiple transformation stages. Hence, we propose an efficient parameter decomposition method and the concept of flow indication embedding, which are key missing components that enable density estimation from a single neural network. Experiments performed on audio and image models confirm that our method provides a new parameter-efficient solution for scalable NFs with significant sublinear parameter complexity.

Discrete diffusion or flow models could enable faster and more controllable sequence generation than autoregressive models. We show that na\"ive linear flow matching on the simplex is insufficient toward this goal since it suffers from discontinuities in the training target and further pathologies. To overcome this, we develop Dirichlet flow matching on the simplex based on mixtures of Dirichlet distributions as probability paths. In this framework, we derive a connection between the mixtures' scores and the flow's vector field that allows for classifier and classifier-free guidance. Further, we provide distilled Dirichlet flow matching, which enables one-step sequence generation with minimal performance hits, resulting in O(L) speedups compared to autoregressive models. On complex DNA sequence generation tasks, we demonstrate superior performance compared to all baselines in distributional metrics and in achieving desired design targets for generated sequences. Finally, we show that our classifier-free guidance approach improves unconditional generation and is effective for generating DNA that satisfies design targets. Code is available at https://github.com/HannesStark/dirichlet-flow-matching.

Wasserstein gradient flow has emerged as a promising approach to solve optimization problems over the space of probability distributions. A recent trend is to use the well-known JKO scheme in combination with input convex neural networks to numerically implement the proximal step. The most challenging step, in this setup, is to evaluate functions involving density explicitly, such as entropy, in terms of samples. This paper builds on the recent works with a slight but crucial difference: we propose to utilize a variational formulation of the objective function formulated as maximization over a parametric class of functions. Theoretically, the proposed variational formulation allows the construction of gradient flows directly for empirical distributions with a well-defined and meaningful objective function. Computationally, this approach replaces the computationally expensive step in existing methods, to handle objective functions involving density, with inner loop updates that only require a small batch of samples and scale well with the dimension. The performance and scalability of the proposed method are illustrated with the aid of several numerical experiments involving high-dimensional synthetic and real datasets.

The field of multi-object tracking has recently seen a renewed interest in the good old schema of tracking-by-detection, as its simplicity and strong priors spare it from the complex design and painful babysitting of tracking-by-attention approaches. In view of this, we aim at extending tracking-by-detection to multi-modal settings, where a comprehensive cost has to be computed from heterogeneous information e.g., 2D motion cues, visual appearance, and pose estimates. More precisely, we follow a case study where a rough estimate of 3D information is also available and must be merged with other traditional metrics (e.g., the IoU). To achieve that, recent approaches resort to either simple rules or complex heuristics to balance the contribution of each cost. However, i) they require careful tuning of tailored hyperparameters on a hold-out set, and ii) they imply these costs to be independent, which does not hold in reality. We address these issues by building upon an elegant probabilistic formulation, which considers the cost of a candidate association as the negative log-likelihood yielded by a deep density estimator, trained to model the conditional joint probability distribution of correct associations. Our experiments, conducted on both simulated and real benchmarks, show that our approach consistently enhances the performance of several tracking-by-detection algorithms.

Conditional normalizing flows can generate diverse image samples for solving inverse problems. Most normalizing flows for inverse problems in imaging employ the conditional affine coupling layer that can generate diverse images quickly. However, unintended severe artifacts are occasionally observed in the output of them. In this work, we address this critical issue by investigating the origins of these artifacts and proposing the conditions to avoid them. First of all, we empirically and theoretically reveal that these problems are caused by "exploding inverse" in the conditional affine coupling layer for certain out-of-distribution (OOD) conditional inputs. Then, we further validated that the probability of causing erroneous artifacts in pixels is highly correlated with a Mahalanobis distance-based OOD score for inverse problems in imaging. Lastly, based on our investigations, we propose a remark to avoid exploding inverse and then based on it, we suggest a simple remedy that substitutes the affine coupling layers with the modified rational quadratic spline coupling layers in normalizing flows, to encourage the robustness of generated image samples. Our experimental results demonstrated that our suggested methods effectively suppressed critical artifacts occurring in normalizing flows for super-resolution space generation and low-light image enhancement.

Fair representation learning is an attractive approach that promises fairness of downstream predictors by encoding sensitive data. Unfortunately, recent work has shown that strong adversarial predictors can still exhibit unfairness by recovering sensitive attributes from these representations. In this work, we present Fair Normalizing Flows (FNF), a new approach offering more rigorous fairness guarantees for learned representations. Specifically, we consider a practical setting where we can estimate the probability density for sensitive groups. The key idea is to model the encoder as a normalizing flow trained to minimize the statistical distance between the latent representations of different groups. The main advantage of FNF is that its exact likelihood computation allows us to obtain guarantees on the maximum unfairness of any potentially adversarial downstream predictor. We experimentally demonstrate the effectiveness of FNF in enforcing various group fairness notions, as well as other attractive properties such as interpretability and transfer learning, on a variety of challenging real-world datasets.

Most modern text-to-speech architectures use a WaveNet vocoder for synthesizing high-fidelity waveform audio, but there have been limitations, such as high inference time, in its practical application due to its ancestral sampling scheme. The recently suggested Parallel WaveNet and ClariNet have achieved real-time audio synthesis capability by incorporating inverse autoregressive flow for parallel sampling. However, these approaches require a two-stage training pipeline with a well-trained teacher network and can only produce natural sound by using probability distillation along with auxiliary loss terms. We propose FloWaveNet, a flow-based generative model for raw audio synthesis. FloWaveNet requires only a single-stage training procedure and a single maximum likelihood loss, without any additional auxiliary terms, and it is inherently parallel due to the characteristics of generative flow. The model can efficiently sample raw audio in real-time, with clarity comparable to previous two-stage parallel models. The code and samples for all models, including our FloWaveNet, are publicly available.

Peptides, short chains of amino acid residues, play a vital role in numerous biological processes by interacting with other target molecules, offering substantial potential in drug discovery. In this work, we present PepFlow, the first multi-modal deep generative model grounded in the flow-matching framework for the design of full-atom peptides that target specific protein receptors. Drawing inspiration from the crucial roles of residue backbone orientations and side-chain dynamics in protein-peptide interactions, we characterize the peptide structure using rigid backbone frames within the SE(3) manifold and side-chain angles on high-dimensional tori. Furthermore, we represent discrete residue types in the peptide sequence as categorical distributions on the probability simplex. By learning the joint distributions of each modality using derived flows and vector fields on corresponding manifolds, our method excels in the fine-grained design of full-atom peptides. Harnessing the multi-modal paradigm, our approach adeptly tackles various tasks such as fix-backbone sequence design and side-chain packing through partial sampling. Through meticulously crafted experiments, we demonstrate that PepFlow exhibits superior performance in comprehensive benchmarks, highlighting its significant potential in computational peptide design and analysis.

A flow control system is a critical concept for increasing the production capacity of manufacturing systems. To solve the scheduling optimization problem related to the flow control with the aim of improving productivity, existing methods depend on a heuristic design by domain human experts. Therefore, the methods require correction, monitoring, and verification by using real equipment. As system designs increase in complexity, the monitoring time increases, which decreases the probability of arriving at the optimal design. As an alternative approach to the heuristic design of flow control systems, the use of deep reinforcement learning to solve the scheduling optimization problem has been considered. Although the existing research on reinforcement learning has yielded excellent performance in some areas, the applicability of the results to actual FAB such as display and semiconductor manufacturing processes is not evident so far. To this end, we propose a method to implement a physical simulation environment and devise a feasible flow control system design using a transfer robot in display manufacturing through reinforcement learning. We present a model and parameter setting to build a virtual environment for different display transfer robots, and training methods of reinforcement learning on the environment to obtain an optimal scheduling of glass flow control systems. Its feasibility was verified by using different types of robots used in the actual process.

Safety-critical applications such as autonomous vehicles and social robots require fast computation and accurate probability density estimation on trajectory prediction. To address both requirements, this paper presents a new normalizing flow-based trajectory prediction model named FlowChain. FlowChain is a stack of conditional continuously-indexed flows (CIFs) that are expressive and allow analytical probability density computation. This analytical computation is faster than the generative models that need additional approximations such as kernel density estimation. Moreover, FlowChain is more accurate than the Gaussian mixture-based models due to fewer assumptions on the estimated density. FlowChain also allows a rapid update of estimated probability densities. This update is achieved by adopting the newest observed position and reusing the flow transformations and its log-det-jacobians that represent the motion trend. This update is completed in less than one millisecond because this reuse greatly omits the computational cost. Experimental results showed our FlowChain achieved state-of-the-art trajectory prediction accuracy compared to previous methods. Furthermore, our FlowChain demonstrated superiority in the accuracy and speed of density estimation. Our code is available at https://github.com/meaten/FlowChain-ICCV2023

Generative models inspired by dynamical transport of measure -- such as flows and diffusions -- construct a continuous-time map between two probability densities. Conventionally, one of these is the target density, only accessible through samples, while the other is taken as a simple base density that is data-agnostic. In this work, using the framework of stochastic interpolants, we formalize how to couple the base and the target densities. This enables us to incorporate information about class labels or continuous embeddings to construct dynamical transport maps that serve as conditional generative models. We show that these transport maps can be learned by solving a simple square loss regression problem analogous to the standard independent setting. We demonstrate the usefulness of constructing dependent couplings in practice through experiments in super-resolution and in-painting.

Recent advances in GPT-4o like multi-modality models have demonstrated remarkable progress for direct speech-to-speech conversation, with real-time speech interaction experience and strong speech understanding ability. However, current research focuses on discrete speech tokens to align with discrete text tokens for language modelling, which depends on an audio codec with residual connections or independent group tokens, such a codec usually leverages large scale and diverse datasets training to ensure that the discrete speech codes have good representation for varied domain, noise, style data reconstruction as well as a well-designed codec quantizer and encoder-decoder architecture for discrete token language modelling. This paper introduces Flow-Omni, a continuous speech token based GPT-4o like model, capable of real-time speech interaction and low streaming latency. Specifically, first, instead of cross-entropy loss only, we combine flow matching loss with a pretrained autoregressive LLM and a small MLP network to predict the probability distribution of the continuous-valued speech tokens from speech prompt. second, we incorporated the continuous speech tokens to Flow-Omni multi-modality training, thereby achieving robust speech-to-speech performance with discrete text tokens and continuous speech tokens together. Experiments demonstrate that, compared to discrete text and speech multi-modality training and its variants, the continuous speech tokens mitigate robustness issues by avoiding the inherent flaws of discrete speech code's representation loss for LLM.

Machine learning-based unfolding has enabled unbinned and high-dimensional differential cross section measurements. Two main approaches have emerged in this research area: one based on discriminative models and one based on generative models. The main advantage of discriminative models is that they learn a small correction to a starting simulation while generative models scale better to regions of phase space with little data. We propose to use Schroedinger Bridges and diffusion models to create SBUnfold, an unfolding approach that combines the strengths of both discriminative and generative models. The key feature of SBUnfold is that its generative model maps one set of events into another without having to go through a known probability density as is the case for normalizing flows and standard diffusion models. We show that SBUnfold achieves excellent performance compared to state of the art methods on a synthetic Z+jets dataset.

Programmable switches are driving a massive increase in fine-grained measurements. This puts significant pressure on telemetry collectors that have to process reports from many switches. Past research acknowledged this problem by either improving collectors' stack performance or by limiting the amount of data sent from switches. In this paper, we take a different and radical approach: switches are responsible for directly inserting queryable telemetry data into the collectors' memory, bypassing their CPU, and thereby improving their collection scalability. We propose to use a method we call direct telemetry access, where switches jointly write telemetry reports directly into the same collector's memory region, without coordination. Our solution, DART, is probabilistic, trading memory redundancy and query success probability for CPU resources at collectors. We prototype DART using commodity hardware such as P4 switches and RDMA NICs and show that we get high query success rates with a reasonable memory overhead. For example, we can collect INT path tracing information on a fat tree topology without a collector's CPU involvement while achieving 99.9\% query success probability and using just 300 bytes per flow.

We present Piecewise Rectified Flow (PeRFlow), a flow-based method for accelerating diffusion models. PeRFlow divides the sampling process of generative flows into several time windows and straightens the trajectories in each interval via the reflow operation, thereby approaching piecewise linear flows. PeRFlow achieves superior performance in a few-step generation. Moreover, through dedicated parameterizations, the obtained PeRFlow models show advantageous transfer ability, serving as universal plug-and-play accelerators that are compatible with various workflows based on the pre-trained diffusion models. The implementations of training and inference are fully open-sourced. https://github.com/magic-research/piecewise-rectified-flow

Divergent thinking, the cognitive process of generating diverse solutions, is a hallmark of human creativity and problem-solving. For machines, sampling diverse solution trajectories in complex reasoning problems is crucial for robust outcomes, data augmentation, and enhanced model generalization. Large language models (LLMs) often struggle with generating high-quality, diverse reasoning. While supervised fine-tuning helps with quality, it requires extensive supervision data to capture the full diversity of solutions. Alternatively, reinforcement learning methods like PPO aim to find limited highest-reward solutions while neglecting the solution diversity, akin to convergent thinking. To address these limitations, we propose Flow of Reasoning (FoR) -- an efficient LLM training approach enabling diverse reasoning with minimal data. FoR formulates multi-step LLM reasoning as a Markovian flow from an initial state to terminal states. The formulation allows to adapt principled GFlowNet approaches to train the LLM as a policy, which is able to sample multiple reasoning paths with probabilities proportional to the unnormalized reward. Empirical results show that, with limited training data (e.g., 15 examples), FoR can discover diverse high-quality solutions that excel greatly beyond current state-of-the-art methods across three tasks, including embodied reasoning (BlocksWorld), math puzzle solving (Game24), and logical reasoning (PrOntoQA). Code is available at https://github.com/Yu-Fangxu/FoR.

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have produced highly capable and controllable systems. This creates unprecedented opportunities for structured reasoning as well as collaboration among multiple AI systems and humans. To fully realize this potential, it is essential to develop a principled way of designing and studying such structured interactions. For this purpose, we introduce the conceptual framework of Flows: a systematic approach to modeling complex interactions. Flows are self-contained building blocks of computation, with an isolated state, communicating through a standardized message-based interface. This modular design allows Flows to be recursively composed into arbitrarily nested interactions, with a substantial reduction of complexity. Crucially, any interaction can be implemented using this framework, including prior work on AI--AI and human--AI interactions, prompt engineering schemes, and tool augmentation. We demonstrate the potential of Flows on the task of competitive coding, a challenging task on which even GPT-4 struggles. Our results suggest that structured reasoning and collaboration substantially improve generalization, with AI-only Flows adding +21 and human--AI Flows adding +54 absolute points in terms of solve rate. To support rapid and rigorous research, we introduce the aiFlows library. The library comes with a repository of Flows that can be easily used, extended, and composed into novel, more complex Flows. The aiFlows library is available at https://github.com/epfl-dlab/aiflows. Data and Flows for reproducing our experiments are available at https://github.com/epfl-dlab/cc_flows.

Generative Flow Networks or GFlowNets are related to Monte-Carlo Markov chain methods (as they sample from a distribution specified by an energy function), reinforcement learning (as they learn a policy to sample composed objects through a sequence of steps), generative models (as they learn to represent and sample from a distribution) and amortized variational methods (as they can be used to learn to approximate and sample from an otherwise intractable posterior, given a prior and a likelihood). They are trained to generate an object x through a sequence of steps with probability proportional to some reward function R(x) (or exp(-E(x)) with E(x) denoting the energy function), given at the end of the generative trajectory. Like for other RL settings where the reward is only given at the end, the efficiency of training and credit assignment may suffer when those trajectories are longer. With previous GFlowNet work, no learning was possible from incomplete trajectories (lacking a terminal state and the computation of the associated reward). In this paper, we consider the case where the energy function can be applied not just to terminal states but also to intermediate states. This is for example achieved when the energy function is additive, with terms available along the trajectory. We show how to reparameterize the GFlowNet state flow function to take advantage of the partial reward already accrued at each state. This enables a training objective that can be applied to update parameters even with incomplete trajectories. Even when complete trajectories are available, being able to obtain more localized credit and gradients is found to speed up training convergence, as demonstrated across many simulations.

Generating novel molecules with higher properties than the training space, namely the out-of-distribution generation, is important for {de~novo} drug design. However, it is not easy for distribution learning-based models, for example diffusion models, to solve this challenge as these methods are designed to fit the distribution of training data as close as possible. In this paper, we show that Bayesian flow network is capable of effortlessly generating high quality out-of-distribution samples that meet several scenarios. We introduce a semi-autoregressive training/sampling method that helps to enhance the model performance and surpass the state-of-the-art models.

Biological processes, functions, and properties are intricately linked to the ensemble of protein conformations, rather than being solely determined by a single stable conformation. In this study, we have developed P2DFlow, a generative model based on SE(3) flow matching, to predict the structural ensembles of proteins. We specifically designed a valuable prior for the flow process and enhanced the model's ability to distinguish each intermediate state by incorporating an additional dimension to describe the ensemble data, which can reflect the physical laws governing the distribution of ensembles, so that the prior knowledge can effectively guide the generation process. When trained and evaluated on the MD datasets of ATLAS, P2DFlow outperforms other baseline models on extensive experiments, successfully capturing the observable dynamic fluctuations as evidenced in crystal structure and MD simulations. As a potential proxy agent for protein molecular simulation, the high-quality ensembles generated by P2DFlow could significantly aid in understanding protein functions across various scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/BLEACH366/P2DFlow

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

The notions of disintegration and Bayesian inversion are fundamental in conditional probability theory. They produce channels, as conditional probabilities, from a joint state, or from an already given channel (in opposite direction). These notions exist in the literature, in concrete situations, but are presented here in abstract graphical formulations. The resulting abstract descriptions are used for proving basic results in conditional probability theory. The existence of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is discussed for discrete probability, and also for measure-theoretic probability --- via standard Borel spaces and via likelihoods. Finally, the usefulness of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is illustrated in several examples.

We tackle the problem of sampling from intractable high-dimensional density functions, a fundamental task that often appears in machine learning and statistics. We extend recent sampling-based approaches that leverage controlled stochastic processes to model approximate samples from these target densities. The main drawback of these approaches is that the training objective requires full trajectories to compute, resulting in sluggish credit assignment issues due to use of entire trajectories and a learning signal present only at the terminal time. In this work, we present Diffusion Generative Flow Samplers (DGFS), a sampling-based framework where the learning process can be tractably broken down into short partial trajectory segments, via parameterizing an additional "flow function". Our method takes inspiration from the theory developed for generative flow networks (GFlowNets), allowing us to make use of intermediate learning signals. Through various challenging experiments, we demonstrate that DGFS achieves more accurate estimates of the normalization constant than closely-related prior methods.

We extend the simply-typed guarded lambda-calculus with discrete probabilities and endow it with a program logic for reasoning about relational properties of guarded probabilistic computations. This provides a framework for programming and reasoning about infinite stochastic processes like Markov chains. We demonstrate the logic sound by interpreting its judgements in the topos of trees and by using probabilistic couplings for the semantics of relational assertions over distributions on discrete types. The program logic is designed to support syntax-directed proofs in the style of relational refinement types, but retains the expressiveness of higher-order logic extended with discrete distributions, and the ability to reason relationally about expressions that have different types or syntactic structure. In addition, our proof system leverages a well-known theorem from the coupling literature to justify better proof rules for relational reasoning about probabilistic expressions. We illustrate these benefits with a broad range of examples that were beyond the scope of previous systems, including shift couplings and lump couplings between random walks.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

Normalizing flows are powerful non-parametric statistical models that function as a hybrid between density estimators and generative models. Current learning algorithms for normalizing flows assume that data points are sampled independently, an assumption that is frequently violated in practice, which may lead to erroneous density estimation and data generation. We propose a likelihood objective of normalizing flows incorporating dependencies between the data points, for which we derive a flexible and efficient learning algorithm suitable for different dependency structures. We show that respecting dependencies between observations can improve empirical results on both synthetic and real-world data, and leads to higher statistical power in a downstream application to genome-wide association studies.

Conventional diffusion models typically relies on a fixed forward process, which implicitly defines complex marginal distributions over latent variables. This can often complicate the reverse process' task in learning generative trajectories, and results in costly inference for diffusion models. To address these limitations, we introduce Neural Flow Diffusion Models (NFDM), a novel framework that enhances diffusion models by supporting a broader range of forward processes beyond the fixed linear Gaussian. We also propose a novel parameterization technique for learning the forward process. Our framework provides an end-to-end, simulation-free optimization objective, effectively minimizing a variational upper bound on the negative log-likelihood. Experimental results demonstrate NFDM's strong performance, evidenced by state-of-the-art likelihood estimation. Furthermore, we investigate NFDM's capacity for learning generative dynamics with specific characteristics, such as deterministic straight lines trajectories. This exploration underscores NFDM's versatility and its potential for a wide range of applications.

Reasoning is a fundamental substrate for solving novel and complex problems. Deliberate efforts in learning and developing frameworks around System 2 reasoning have made great strides, yet problems of sufficient complexity remain largely out of reach for open models. To address this gap, we examine the potential of Generative Flow Networks as a fine-tuning method for LLMs to unlock advanced reasoning capabilities. In this paper, we present a proof of concept in the domain of formal reasoning, specifically in the Neural Theorem Proving (NTP) setting, where proofs specified in a formal language such as Lean can be deterministically and objectively verified. Unlike classical reward-maximization reinforcement learning, which frequently over-exploits high-reward actions and fails to effectively explore the state space, GFlowNets have emerged as a promising approach for sampling compositional objects, improving generalization, and enabling models to maintain diverse hypotheses. Our early results demonstrate GFlowNet fine-tuning's potential for enhancing model performance in a search setting, which is especially relevant given the paradigm shift towards inference time compute scaling and "thinking slowly."

Words of estimative probability (WEP) are expressions of a statement's plausibility (probably, maybe, likely, doubt, likely, unlikely, impossible...). Multiple surveys demonstrate the agreement of human evaluators when assigning numerical probability levels to WEP. For example, highly likely corresponds to a median chance of 0.90+-0.08 in Fagen-Ulmschneider (2015)'s survey. In this work, we measure the ability of neural language processing models to capture the consensual probability level associated to each WEP. Firstly, we use the UNLI dataset (Chen et al., 2020) which associates premises and hypotheses with their perceived joint probability p, to construct prompts, e.g. "[PREMISE]. [WEP], [HYPOTHESIS]." and assess whether language models can predict whether the WEP consensual probability level is close to p. Secondly, we construct a dataset of WEP-based probabilistic reasoning, to test whether language models can reason with WEP compositions. When prompted "[EVENTA] is likely. [EVENTB] is impossible.", a causal language model should not express that [EVENTA&B] is likely. We show that both tasks are unsolved by off-the-shelf English language models, but that fine-tuning leads to transferable improvement.

We present an accessible first course on diffusion models and flow matching for machine learning, aimed at a technical audience with no diffusion experience. We try to simplify the mathematical details as much as possible (sometimes heuristically), while retaining enough precision to derive correct algorithms.

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

Introduction: The paper addresses the challenging problem of predicting the short-term realized volatility of the Bitcoin price using order flow information. The inherent stochastic nature and anti-persistence of price pose difficulties in accurate prediction. Methods: To address this, we propose a method that transforms order flow data over a fixed time interval (snapshots) into images. The order flow includes trade sizes, trade directions, and limit order book, and is mapped into image colour channels. These images are then used to train both a simple 3-layer Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and more advanced ResNet-18 and ConvMixer, with additionally supplementing them with hand-crafted features. The models are evaluated against classical GARCH, Multilayer Perceptron trained on raw data, and a naive guess method that considers current volatility as a prediction. Results: The experiments are conducted using price data from January 2021 and evaluate model performance in terms of root mean square error (RMSPE). The results show that our order flow representation with a CNN as a predictive model achieves the best performance, with an RMSPE of 0.85+/-1.1 for the model with aggregated features and 1.0+/-1.4 for the model without feature supplementation. ConvMixer with feature supplementation follows closely. In comparison, the RMSPE for the naive guess method was 1.4+/-3.0.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

Given an unconditional generative model and a predictor for a target property (e.g., a classifier), the goal of training-free guidance is to generate samples with desirable target properties without additional training. As a highly efficient technique for steering generative models toward flexible outcomes, training-free guidance has gained increasing attention in diffusion models. However, existing methods only handle data in continuous spaces, while many scientific applications involve both continuous and discrete data (referred to as multimodality). Another emerging trend is the growing use of the simple and general flow matching framework in building generative foundation models, where guided generation remains under-explored. To address this, we introduce TFG-Flow, a novel training-free guidance method for multimodal generative flow. TFG-Flow addresses the curse-of-dimensionality while maintaining the property of unbiased sampling in guiding discrete variables. We validate TFG-Flow on four molecular design tasks and show that TFG-Flow has great potential in drug design by generating molecules with desired properties.

Despite impressive performance across diverse tasks, Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have yet to fully demonstrate their potential in visual mathematical problem-solving, particularly in accurately perceiving and interpreting diagrams. Inspired by typical processes of humans, we hypothesize that the perception capabilities to extract meaningful information from diagrams is crucial, as it directly impacts subsequent inference processes. To validate this hypothesis, we developed FlowVerse, a comprehensive benchmark that categorizes all information used during problem-solving into four components, which are then combined into six problem versions for evaluation. Our preliminary results on FlowVerse reveal that existing MLLMs exhibit substantial limitations when extracting essential information and reasoned property from diagrams and performing complex reasoning based on these visual inputs. In response, we introduce MathFlow, a modular problem-solving pipeline that decouples perception and inference into distinct stages, thereby optimizing each independently. Given the perceptual limitations observed in current MLLMs, we trained MathFlow-P-7B as a dedicated perception model. Experimental results indicate that MathFlow-P-7B yields substantial performance gains when integrated with various closed-source and open-source inference models. This demonstrates the effectiveness of the MathFlow pipeline and its compatibility to diverse inference frameworks. The FlowVerse benchmark and code are available at https://github.com/MathFlow-zju/MathFlow.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

We formulate a hierarchical rectified flow to model data distributions. It hierarchically couples multiple ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and defines a time-differentiable stochastic process that generates a data distribution from a known source distribution. Each ODE resembles the ODE that is solved in a classic rectified flow, but differs in its domain, i.e., location, velocity, acceleration, etc. Unlike the classic rectified flow formulation, which formulates a single ODE in the location domain and only captures the expected velocity field (sufficient to capture a multi-modal data distribution), the hierarchical rectified flow formulation models the multi-modal random velocity field, acceleration field, etc., in their entirety. This more faithful modeling of the random velocity field enables integration paths to intersect when the underlying ODE is solved during data generation. Intersecting paths in turn lead to integration trajectories that are more straight than those obtained in the classic rectified flow formulation, where integration paths cannot intersect. This leads to modeling of data distributions with fewer neural function evaluations. We empirically verify this on synthetic 1D and 2D data as well as MNIST, CIFAR-10, and ImageNet-32 data. Our code is available at: https://riccizz.github.io/HRF/.

We propose conditional flows of the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) with the negative distance kernel for posterior sampling and conditional generative modeling. This MMD, which is also known as energy distance, has several advantageous properties like efficient computation via slicing and sorting. We approximate the joint distribution of the ground truth and the observations using discrete Wasserstein gradient flows and establish an error bound for the posterior distributions. Further, we prove that our particle flow is indeed a Wasserstein gradient flow of an appropriate functional. The power of our method is demonstrated by numerical examples including conditional image generation and inverse problems like superresolution, inpainting and computed tomography in low-dose and limited-angle settings.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

Normalizing flows (NF) are a class of powerful generative models that have gained popularity in recent years due to their ability to model complex distributions with high flexibility and expressiveness. In this work, we introduce a new type of normalizing flow that is tailored for modeling positions and orientations of multiple objects in three-dimensional space, such as molecules in a crystal. Our approach is based on two key ideas: first, we define smooth and expressive flows on the group of unit quaternions, which allows us to capture the continuous rotational motion of rigid bodies; second, we use the double cover property of unit quaternions to define a proper density on the rotation group. This ensures that our model can be trained using standard likelihood-based methods or variational inference with respect to a thermodynamic target density. We evaluate the method by training Boltzmann generators for two molecular examples, namely the multi-modal density of a tetrahedral system in an external field and the ice XI phase in the TIP4P water model. Our flows can be combined with flows operating on the internal degrees of freedom of molecules and constitute an important step towards the modeling of distributions of many interacting molecules.

Large Language Model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems (MAS) demonstrate remarkable potential for scientific discovery. Existing approaches, however, often automate scientific discovery using predefined workflows that lack rationality constraints. This often leads to aimless hypothesizing and a failure to consistently link hypotheses with evidence, thereby hindering systematic uncertainty reduction. Overcoming these limitations fundamentally requires systematic uncertainty reduction. We introduce PiFlow, an information-theoretical framework, treating automated scientific discovery as a structured uncertainty reduction problem guided by principles (e.g., scientific laws). In evaluations across three distinct scientific domains -- discovering nanomaterial structures, bio-molecules, and superconductor candidates with targeted properties -- our method significantly improves discovery efficiency, reflected by a 73.55\% increase in the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of property values versus exploration steps, and enhances solution quality by 94.06\% compared to a vanilla agent system. Overall, PiFlow serves as a Plug-and-Play method, establishing a novel paradigm shift in highly efficient automated scientific discovery, paving the way for more robust and accelerated AI-driven research. Code is publicly available at our https://github.com/amair-lab/PiFlow{GitHub}.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

In reinforcement learning and imitation learning, an object of central importance is the state distribution induced by the policy. It plays a crucial role in the policy gradient theorem, and references to it--along with the related state-action distribution--can be found all across the literature. Despite its importance, the state distribution is mostly discussed indirectly and theoretically, rather than being modeled explicitly. The reason being an absence of appropriate density estimation tools. In this work, we investigate applications of a normalizing flow-based model for the aforementioned distributions. In particular, we use a pair of flows coupled through the optimality point of the Donsker-Varadhan representation of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, for distribution matching based imitation learning. Our algorithm, Coupled Flow Imitation Learning (CFIL), achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmark tasks with a single expert trajectory and extends naturally to a variety of other settings, including the subsampled and state-only regimes.

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

We study the problem of training a flow-based generative model, parametrized by a two-layer autoencoder, to sample from a high-dimensional Gaussian mixture. We provide a sharp end-to-end analysis of the problem. First, we provide a tight closed-form characterization of the learnt velocity field, when parametrized by a shallow denoising auto-encoder trained on a finite number n of samples from the target distribution. Building on this analysis, we provide a sharp description of the corresponding generative flow, which pushes the base Gaussian density forward to an approximation of the target density. In particular, we provide closed-form formulae for the distance between the mean of the generated mixture and the mean of the target mixture, which we show decays as Theta_n(1{n}). Finally, this rate is shown to be in fact Bayes-optimal.

We introduce Lagrangian Flow Networks (LFlows) for modeling fluid densities and velocities continuously in space and time. By construction, the proposed LFlows satisfy the continuity equation, a PDE describing mass conservation in its differentiable form. Our model is based on the insight that solutions to the continuity equation can be expressed as time-dependent density transformations via differentiable and invertible maps. This follows from classical theory of the existence and uniqueness of Lagrangian flows for smooth vector fields. Hence, we model fluid densities by transforming a base density with parameterized diffeomorphisms conditioned on time. The key benefit compared to methods relying on numerical ODE solvers or PINNs is that the analytic expression of the velocity is always consistent with changes in density. Furthermore, we require neither expensive numerical solvers, nor additional penalties to enforce the PDE. LFlows show higher predictive accuracy in density modeling tasks compared to competing models in 2D and 3D, while being computationally efficient. As a real-world application, we model bird migration based on sparse weather radar measurements.

Transport maps can ease the sampling of distributions with non-trivial geometries by transforming them into distributions that are easier to handle. The potential of this approach has risen with the development of Normalizing Flows (NF) which are maps parameterized with deep neural networks trained to push a reference distribution towards a target. NF-enhanced samplers recently proposed blend (Markov chain) Monte Carlo methods with either (i) proposal draws from the flow or (ii) a flow-based reparametrization. In both cases, the quality of the learned transport conditions performance. The present work clarifies for the first time the relative strengths and weaknesses of these two approaches. Our study concludes that multimodal targets can be reliably handled with flow-based proposals up to moderately high dimensions. In contrast, methods relying on reparametrization struggle with multimodality but are more robust otherwise in high-dimensional settings and under poor training. To further illustrate the influence of target-proposal adequacy, we also derive a new quantitative bound for the mixing time of the Independent Metropolis-Hastings sampler.

Accurately forecasting patient arrivals at Urgent Care Clinics (UCCs) and Emergency Departments (EDs) is important for effective resourcing and patient care. However, correctly estimating patient flows is not straightforward since it depends on many drivers. The predictability of patient arrivals has recently been further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic conditions and the resulting lockdowns. This study investigates how a suite of novel quasi-real-time variables like Google search terms, pedestrian traffic, the prevailing incidence levels of influenza, as well as the COVID-19 Alert Level indicators can both generally improve the forecasting models of patient flows and effectively adapt the models to the unfolding disruptions of pandemic conditions. This research also uniquely contributes to the body of work in this domain by employing tools from the eXplainable AI field to investigate more deeply the internal mechanics of the models than has previously been done. The Voting ensemble-based method combining machine learning and statistical techniques was the most reliable in our experiments. Our study showed that the prevailing COVID-19 Alert Level feature together with Google search terms and pedestrian traffic were effective at producing generalisable forecasts. The implications of this study are that proxy variables can effectively augment standard autoregressive features to ensure accurate forecasting of patient flows. The experiments showed that the proposed features are potentially effective model inputs for preserving forecast accuracies in the event of future pandemic outbreaks.

There is a strong association between the quality of the writing in a resume for new labor market entrants and whether those entrants are ultimately hired. We show that this relationship is, at least partially, causal: a field experiment in an online labor market was conducted with nearly half a million jobseekers in which a treated group received algorithmic writing assistance. Treated jobseekers experienced an 8% increase in the probability of getting hired. Contrary to concerns that the assistance is taking away a valuable signal, we find no evidence that employers were less satisfied. We present a model in which better writing is not a signal of ability but helps employers ascertain ability, which rationalizes our findings.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

We propose an inference-time scaling approach for pretrained flow models. Recently, inference-time scaling has gained significant attention in LLMs and diffusion models, improving sample quality or better aligning outputs with user preferences by leveraging additional computation. For diffusion models, particle sampling has allowed more efficient scaling due to the stochasticity at intermediate denoising steps. On the contrary, while flow models have gained popularity as an alternative to diffusion models--offering faster generation and high-quality outputs in state-of-the-art image and video generative models--efficient inference-time scaling methods used for diffusion models cannot be directly applied due to their deterministic generative process. To enable efficient inference-time scaling for flow models, we propose three key ideas: 1) SDE-based generation, enabling particle sampling in flow models, 2) Interpolant conversion, broadening the search space and enhancing sample diversity, and 3) Rollover Budget Forcing (RBF), an adaptive allocation of computational resources across timesteps to maximize budget utilization. Our experiments show that SDE-based generation, particularly variance-preserving (VP) interpolant-based generation, improves the performance of particle sampling methods for inference-time scaling in flow models. Additionally, we demonstrate that RBF with VP-SDE achieves the best performance, outperforming all previous inference-time scaling approaches.

In this paper, we present a novel framework for the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis [27], which is composed of three key components: a) probabilistic modeling with cross entropy optimization and reasoning; b) the application of the law of large numbers; c) the application of mathematical inductions. The analysis is mainly conducted by virtue of probabilistic modeling of cross entropy optimization and reasoning with rare event simulation techniques. The application of the law of large numbers [2, 3, 6] and the application of mathematical inductions make the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis self-contained and complete to make sure that the whole complex plane is covered as conjectured in Riemann Hypothesis. We also discuss the method of enhanced top-p sampling with large language models (LLMs) for reasoning, where next token prediction is not just based on the estimated probabilities of each possible token in the current round but also based on accumulated path probabilities among multiple top-k chain of thoughts (CoTs) paths. The probabilistic modeling of cross entropy optimization and reasoning may suit well with the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis as Riemann Zeta functions are inherently dealing with the sums of infinite components of a complex number series. We hope that our analysis in this paper could shed some light on some of the insights of Riemann Hypothesis. The framework and techniques presented in this paper, coupled with recent developments with chain of thought (CoT) or diagram of thought (DoT) reasoning in large language models (LLMs) with reinforcement learning (RL) [1, 7, 18, 21, 24, 34, 39-41], could pave the way for eventual proof of Riemann Hypothesis [27].

Neural Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) are the prevalent paradigm for modeling continuous-time event sequences, such as user activities on the web and financial transactions. In real-world applications, event data is typically received in a streaming manner, where the distribution of patterns may shift over time. Additionally, privacy and memory constraints are commonly observed in practical scenarios, further compounding the challenges. Therefore, the continuous monitoring of a TPP to learn the streaming event sequence is an important yet under-explored problem. Our work paper addresses this challenge by adopting Continual Learning (CL), which makes the model capable of continuously learning a sequence of tasks without catastrophic forgetting under realistic constraints. Correspondingly, we propose a simple yet effective framework, PromptTPPOur code is available at {\small \url{ https://github.com/yanyanSann/PromptTPP}}, by integrating the base TPP with a continuous-time retrieval prompt pool. The prompts, small learnable parameters, are stored in a memory space and jointly optimized with the base TPP, ensuring that the model learns event streams sequentially without buffering past examples or task-specific attributes. We present a novel and realistic experimental setup for modeling event streams, where PromptTPP consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance across three real user behavior datasets.

From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization and analysis of many aspects of machine learning. Using categorical methods, we construct models for parametric and nonparametric Bayesian reasoning on function spaces, thus providing a basis for the supervised learning problem. In particular, stochastic processes are arrows to these function spaces which serve as prior probabilities. The resulting inference maps can often be analytically constructed in this symmetric monoidal weakly closed category. We also show how to view general stochastic processes using functor categories and demonstrate the Kalman filter as an archetype for the hidden Markov model.

This paper proposes a query-level meta-agent named FlowReasoner to automate the design of query-level multi-agent systems, i.e., one system per user query. Our core idea is to incentivize a reasoning-based meta-agent via external execution feedback. Concretely, by distilling DeepSeek R1, we first endow the basic reasoning ability regarding the generation of multi-agent systems to FlowReasoner. Then, we further enhance it via reinforcement learning (RL) with external execution feedback. A multi-purpose reward is designed to guide the RL training from aspects of performance, complexity, and efficiency. In this manner, FlowReasoner is enabled to generate a personalized multi-agent system for each user query via deliberative reasoning. Experiments on both engineering and competition code benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of FlowReasoner. Remarkably, it surpasses o1-mini by 10.52% accuracy across three benchmarks. The code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/FlowReasoner.

We present a novel reasoning approach called Flow-of-Options (FoO), designed to address intrinsic biases in Large Language Models (LLMs). FoO enables LLMs to systematically explore a diverse range of possibilities in their reasoning, as demonstrated by an FoO-based agentic system for autonomously solving Machine Learning tasks (AutoML). Our framework outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving improvements of 38.2% - 69.2% on standard data science tasks, and 37.4% - 47.9% on therapeutic chemistry tasks. With an overall operation cost under $1 per task, our framework is well-suited for cost-sensitive applications. Beyond classification and regression, we illustrate the broader applicability of our FoO-based agentic system to tasks such as reinforcement learning and image generation. Our framework presents significant advancements compared to current state-of-the-art agentic systems for AutoML, due to the benefits of FoO in enforcing diversity in LLM solutions through compressed, explainable representations that also support long-term memory when combined with case-based reasoning.

Higher-order probabilistic programming languages allow programmers to write sophisticated models in machine learning and statistics in a succinct and structured way, but step outside the standard measure-theoretic formalization of probability theory. Programs may use both higher-order functions and continuous distributions, or even define a probability distribution on functions. But standard probability theory does not handle higher-order functions well: the category of measurable spaces is not cartesian closed. Here we introduce quasi-Borel spaces. We show that these spaces: form a new formalization of probability theory replacing measurable spaces; form a cartesian closed category and so support higher-order functions; form a well-pointed category and so support good proof principles for equational reasoning; and support continuous probability distributions. We demonstrate the use of quasi-Borel spaces for higher-order functions and probability by: showing that a well-known construction of probability theory involving random functions gains a cleaner expression; and generalizing de Finetti's theorem, that is a crucial theorem in probability theory, to quasi-Borel spaces.

Multiple types of inference are available for probabilistic graphical models, e.g., marginal, maximum-a-posteriori, and even marginal maximum-a-posteriori. Which one do researchers mean when they talk about ``planning as inference''? There is no consistency in the literature, different types are used, and their ability to do planning is further entangled with specific approximations or additional constraints. In this work we use the variational framework to show that, just like all commonly used types of inference correspond to different weightings of the entropy terms in the variational problem, planning corresponds exactly to a different set of weights. This means that all the tricks of variational inference are readily applicable to planning. We develop an analogue of loopy belief propagation that allows us to perform approximate planning in factored-state Markov decisions processes without incurring intractability due to the exponentially large state space. The variational perspective shows that the previous types of inference for planning are only adequate in environments with low stochasticity, and allows us to characterize each type by its own merits, disentangling the type of inference from the additional approximations that its practical use requires. We validate these results empirically on synthetic MDPs and tasks posed in the International Planning Competition.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and tractability. The essential idea, inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, is to systematically and slowly destroy structure in a data distribution through an iterative forward diffusion process. We then learn a reverse diffusion process that restores structure in data, yielding a highly flexible and tractable generative model of the data. This approach allows us to rapidly learn, sample from, and evaluate probabilities in deep generative models with thousands of layers or time steps, as well as to compute conditional and posterior probabilities under the learned model. We additionally release an open source reference implementation of the algorithm.

The field of Explainable AI (XAI) is seeking to shed light on the inner workings of complex AI models and uncover the rationale behind their decisions. One of the models gaining attention are probabilistic circuits (PCs), which are a general and unified framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various probabilistic queries. Probabilistic circuits guarantee inference that is polynomial in the size of the circuit. In this paper, we improve the explainability of probabilistic circuits by computing a comprehensible, readable logical theory that covers the high-density regions generated by a PC. To achieve this, pruning approaches based on generative significance are used in a new method called PUTPUT (Probabilistic circuit Understanding Through Pruning Underlying logical Theories). The method is applied to a real world use case where music playlists are automatically generated and expressed as readable (database) queries. Evaluation shows that this approach can effectively produce a comprehensible logical theory that describes the high-density regions of a PC and outperforms state of the art methods when exploring the performance-comprehensibility trade-off.

We revisit the noisy binary search model of Karp and Kleinberg, in which we have n coins with unknown probabilities p_i that we can flip. The coins are sorted by increasing p_i, and we would like to find where the probability crosses (to within varepsilon) of a target value tau. This generalized the fixed-noise model of Burnashev and Zigangirov , in which p_i = 1{2} pm varepsilon, to a setting where coins near the target may be indistinguishable from it. Karp and Kleinberg showed that Theta(1{varepsilon^2} log n) samples are necessary and sufficient for this task. We produce a practical algorithm by solving two theoretical challenges: high-probability behavior and sharp constants. We give an algorithm that succeeds with probability 1-delta from \[ 1{C_{\tau, \varepsilon}} \cdot \left(\lg n + O(\log^{2/3} n \log^{1/3} 1{\delta} + \log 1{\delta})\right) \] samples, where C_{tau, varepsilon} is the optimal such constant achievable. For delta > n^{-o(1)} this is within 1 + o(1) of optimal, and for delta ll 1 it is the first bound within constant factors of optimal.

Thinking about the future is one of the important activities that people do in daily life. Futurists also pay a lot of effort into figuring out possible scenarios for the future. We argue that the exploration of this direction is still in an early stage in the NLP research. To this end, we propose three argument generation tasks in the financial application scenario. Our experimental results show these tasks are still big challenges for representative generation models. Based on our empirical results, we further point out several unresolved issues and challenges in this research direction.

Institutional investors have been increasing the allocation of the illiquid alternative assets such as private equity funds in their portfolios, yet there exists a very limited literature on cash flow forecasting of illiquid alternative assets. The net cash flow of private equity funds typically follow a J-curve pattern, however the timing and the size of the contributions and distributions depend on the investment opportunities. In this paper, we develop a benchmark model and present two novel approaches (direct vs. indirect) to predict the cash flows of private equity funds. We introduce a sliding window approach to apply on our cash flow data because different vintage year funds contain different lengths of cash flow information. We then pass the data to an LSTM/ GRU model to predict the future cash flows either directly or indirectly (based on the benchmark model). We further integrate macroeconomic indicators into our data, which allows us to consider the impact of market environment on cash flows and to apply stress testing. Our results indicate that the direct model is easier to implement compared to the benchmark model and the indirect model, but still the predicted cash flows align better with the actual cash flows. We also show that macroeconomic variables improve the performance of the direct model whereas the impact is not obvious on the indirect model.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

This paper proposes a novel admission and routing scheme which takes into account arbitrarily assigned priorities for network flows. The presented approach leverages the centralized Software Defined Networking (SDN) capabilities in order to do so. Exact and heuristic approaches to the stated Priority Flow Admission and Routing (PFAR) problem are provided. The exact approach which provides an optimal solution is based on Integer Linear Programming (ILP). Given the potentially long running time required to find an exact and optimal solution, a heuristic approach is proposed; this approach is based on Genetic Algorithms (GAs). In order to effectively estimate the performance of the proposed approaches, a simulator that is capable of generating semi-random network topologies and flows has been developed. Experimental results for large problem instances (up 50 network nodes and thousands of network flows), show that: i) an optimal solution can be often found in few seconds (even milliseconds), and ii) the heuristic approach yields close-to-optimal solutions (approximately 95\% of the optimal) in a fixed amount of time; these experimental results demonstrate the pertinence of the proposed approaches.

Continuous latent variables (LVs) are a key ingredient of many generative models, as they allow modelling expressive mixtures with an uncountable number of components. In contrast, probabilistic circuits (PCs) are hierarchical discrete mixtures represented as computational graphs composed of input, sum and product units. Unlike continuous LV models, PCs provide tractable inference but are limited to discrete LVs with categorical (i.e. unordered) states. We bridge these model classes by introducing probabilistic integral circuits (PICs), a new language of computational graphs that extends PCs with integral units representing continuous LVs. In the first place, PICs are symbolic computational graphs and are fully tractable in simple cases where analytical integration is possible. In practice, we parameterise PICs with light-weight neural nets delivering an intractable hierarchical continuous mixture that can be approximated arbitrarily well with large PCs using numerical quadrature. On several distribution estimation benchmarks, we show that such PIC-approximating PCs systematically outperform PCs commonly learned via expectation-maximization or SGD.

We study the accuracy of differentially private mechanisms in the continual release model. A continual release mechanism receives a sensitive dataset as a stream of T inputs and produces, after receiving each input, an accurate output on the obtained inputs. In contrast, a batch algorithm receives the data as one batch and produces a single output. We provide the first strong lower bounds on the error of continual release mechanisms. In particular, for two fundamental problems that are widely studied and used in the batch model, we show that the worst case error of every continual release algorithm is tilde Omega(T^{1/3}) times larger than that of the best batch algorithm. Previous work shows only a polylogarithimic (in T) gap between the worst case error achievable in these two models; further, for many problems, including the summation of binary attributes, the polylogarithmic gap is tight (Dwork et al., 2010; Chan et al., 2010). Our results show that problems closely related to summation -- specifically, those that require selecting the largest of a set of sums -- are fundamentally harder in the continual release model than in the batch model. Our lower bounds assume only that privacy holds for streams fixed in advance (the "nonadaptive" setting). However, we provide matching upper bounds that hold in a model where privacy is required even for adaptively selected streams. This model may be of independent interest.

This paper proposes a novel framework to predict traffic flows' bandwidth ahead of time. Modern network management systems share a common issue: the network situation evolves between the moment the decision is made and the moment when actions (countermeasures) are applied. This framework converts packets from real-life traffic into flows containing relevant features. Machine learning models, including Decision Tree, Random Forest, XGBoost, and Deep Neural Network, are trained on these data to predict the bandwidth at the next time instance for every flow. Predictions can be fed to the management system instead of current flows bandwidth in order to take decisions on a more accurate network state. Experiments were performed on 981,774 flows and 15 different time windows (from 0.03s to 4s). They show that the Random Forest is the best performing and most reliable model, with a predictive performance consistently better than relying on the current bandwidth (+19.73% in mean absolute error and +18.00% in root mean square error). Experimental results indicate that this framework can help network management systems to take more informed decisions using a predicted network state.

Closed drafting or "pick and pass" is a popular game mechanic where each round players select a card or other playable element from their hand and pass the rest to the next player. Games employing closed drafting make for great studies on memory and turn order due to their explicitly calculable memory of other players' hands. In this paper, we establish first-principle benchmarks for studying model-free reinforcement learning algorithms and their comparative ability to learn memory in a popular family of closed drafting games called "Sushi Go Party!", producing state-of-the-art results on this environment along the way. Furthermore, as Sushi Go Party! can be expressed as a set of closely-related games based on the set of cards in play, we quantify the generalizability of reinforcement learning algorithms trained on various sets of cards, establishing key trends between generalized performance and the set distance between the train and evaluation game configurations. Finally, we fit decision rules to interpret the strategy of the learned models and compare them to the ranking preferences of human players, finding intuitive common rules and intriguing new moves.

Building on the success of diffusion models in visual generation, flow-based models reemerge as another prominent family of generative models that have achieved competitive or better performance in terms of both visual quality and inference speed. By learning the velocity field through flow-matching, flow-based models tend to produce a straighter sampling trajectory, which is advantageous during the sampling process. However, unlike diffusion models for which fast samplers are well-developed, efficient sampling of flow-based generative models has been rarely explored. In this paper, we propose a framework called FlowTurbo to accelerate the sampling of flow-based models while still enhancing the sampling quality. Our primary observation is that the velocity predictor's outputs in the flow-based models will become stable during the sampling, enabling the estimation of velocity via a lightweight velocity refiner. Additionally, we introduce several techniques including a pseudo corrector and sample-aware compilation to further reduce inference time. Since FlowTurbo does not change the multi-step sampling paradigm, it can be effectively applied for various tasks such as image editing, inpainting, etc. By integrating FlowTurbo into different flow-based models, we obtain an acceleration ratio of 53.1%sim58.3% on class-conditional generation and 29.8%sim38.5% on text-to-image generation. Notably, FlowTurbo reaches an FID of 2.12 on ImageNet with 100 (ms / img) and FID of 3.93 with 38 (ms / img), achieving the real-time image generation and establishing the new state-of-the-art. Code is available at https://github.com/shiml20/FlowTurbo.

Recent research has leveraged large language model multi-agent systems for complex problem-solving while trying to reduce the manual effort required to build them, driving the development of automated agent workflow optimization methods. However, existing methods remain inflexible due to representational limitations, a lack of adaptability, and poor scalability when relying on discrete optimization techniques. We address these challenges with ScoreFlow, a simple yet high-performance framework that leverages efficient gradient-based optimization in a continuous space. ScoreFlow incorporates Score-DPO, a novel variant of the direct preference optimization method that accounts for quantitative feedback. Across six benchmarks spanning question answering, coding, and mathematical reasoning, ScoreFlow achieves an 8.2% improvement over existing baselines. Moreover, it empowers smaller models to outperform larger ones with lower inference costs. Project: https://github.com/Gen-Verse/ScoreFlow

This work presents mixed variational flows (MixFlows), a new variational family that consists of a mixture of repeated applications of a map to an initial reference distribution. First, we provide efficient algorithms for i.i.d. sampling, density evaluation, and unbiased ELBO estimation. We then show that MixFlows have MCMC-like convergence guarantees when the flow map is ergodic and measure-preserving, and provide bounds on the accumulation of error for practical implementations where the flow map is approximated. Finally, we develop an implementation of MixFlows based on uncorrected discretized Hamiltonian dynamics combined with deterministic momentum refreshment. Simulated and real data experiments show that MixFlows can provide more reliable posterior approximations than several black-box normalizing flows, as well as samples of comparable quality to those obtained from state-of-the-art MCMC methods.

We define a probabilistic programming language for Gaussian random variables with a first-class exact conditioning construct. We give operational, denotational and equational semantics for this language, establishing convenient properties like exchangeability of conditions. Conditioning on equality of continuous random variables is nontrivial, as the exact observation may have probability zero; this is Borel's paradox. Using categorical formulations of conditional probability, we show that the good properties of our language are not particular to Gaussians, but can be derived from universal properties, thus generalizing to wider settings. We define the Cond construction, which internalizes conditioning as a morphism, providing general compositional semantics for probabilistic programming with exact conditioning.

Multi-Agent Path Finding (MAPF) is a fundamental problem in robotics that asks us to compute collision-free paths for a team of agents, all moving across a shared map. Although many works appear on this topic, all current algorithms struggle as the number of agents grows. The principal reason is that existing approaches typically plan free-flow optimal paths, which creates congestion. To tackle this issue, we propose a new approach for MAPF where agents are guided to their destination by following congestion-avoiding paths. We evaluate the idea in two large-scale settings: one-shot MAPF, where each agent has a single destination, and lifelong MAPF, where agents are continuously assigned new destinations. Empirically, we report large improvements in solution quality for one-short MAPF and in overall throughput for lifelong MAPF.

We consider multi-draft speculative sampling, where the proposal sequences are sampled independently from different draft models. At each step, a token-level draft selection scheme takes a list of valid tokens as input and produces an output token whose distribution matches that of the target model. Previous works have demonstrated that the optimal scheme (which maximizes the probability of accepting one of the input tokens) can be cast as a solution to a linear program. In this work we show that the optimal scheme can be decomposed into a two-step solution: in the first step an importance sampling (IS) type scheme is used to select one intermediate token; in the second step (single-draft) speculative sampling is applied to generate the output token. For the case of two identical draft models we further 1) establish a necessary and sufficient condition on the distributions of the target and draft models for the acceptance probability to equal one and 2) provide an explicit expression for the optimal acceptance probability. Our theoretical analysis also motives a new class of token-level selection scheme based on weighted importance sampling. Our experimental results demonstrate consistent improvements in the achievable block efficiency and token rates over baseline schemes in a number of scenarios.

A new prior is proposed for learning representations of high-level concepts of the kind we manipulate with language. This prior can be combined with other priors in order to help disentangling abstract factors from each other. It is inspired by cognitive neuroscience theories of consciousness, seen as a bottleneck through which just a few elements, after having been selected by attention from a broader pool, are then broadcast and condition further processing, both in perception and decision-making. The set of recently selected elements one becomes aware of is seen as forming a low-dimensional conscious state. This conscious state is combining the few concepts constituting a conscious thought, i.e., what one is immediately conscious of at a particular moment. We claim that this architectural and information-processing constraint corresponds to assumptions about the joint distribution between high-level concepts. To the extent that these assumptions are generally true (and the form of natural language seems consistent with them), they can form a useful prior for representation learning. A low-dimensional thought or conscious state is analogous to a sentence: it involves only a few variables and yet can make a statement with very high probability of being true. This is consistent with a joint distribution (over high-level concepts) which has the form of a sparse factor graph, i.e., where the dependencies captured by each factor of the factor graph involve only very few variables while creating a strong dip in the overall energy function. The consciousness prior also makes it natural to map conscious states to natural language utterances or to express classical AI knowledge in a form similar to facts and rules, albeit capturing uncertainty as well as efficient search mechanisms implemented by attention mechanisms.

Many poker systems, whether created with heuristics or machine learning, rely on the probability of winning as a key input. However calculating the precise probability using combinatorics is an intractable problem, so instead we approximate it. Monte Carlo simulation is an effective technique that can be used to approximate the probability that a player will win and/or tie a hand. However, without the use of a memory-intensive lookup table or a supercomputer, it becomes infeasible to run millions of times when training an agent with self-play. To combat the space-time tradeoff, we use deep learning to approximate the probabilities obtained from the Monte Carlo simulation with high accuracy. The learned model proves to be a lightweight alternative to Monte Carlo simulation, which ultimately allows us to use the probabilities as inputs during self-play efficiently. The source code and optimized neural network can be found at https://github.com/brandinho/Poker-Probability-Approximation

In this report, we survey Bayesian Optimization methods focussed on the Multi-Armed Bandit Problem. We take the help of the paper "Portfolio Allocation for Bayesian Optimization". We report a small literature survey on the acquisition functions and the types of portfolio strategies used in papers discussing Bayesian Optimization. We also replicate the experiments and report our findings and compare them to the results in the paper. Code link: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1GZ14klEDoe3dcBeZKo5l8qqrKf_GmBDn?usp=sharing#scrollTo=XgIBau3O45_V.

A Neural Process (NP) estimates a stochastic process implicitly defined with neural networks given a stream of data, rather than pre-specifying priors already known, such as Gaussian processes. An ideal NP would learn everything from data without any inductive biases, but in practice, we often restrict the class of stochastic processes for the ease of estimation. One such restriction is the use of a finite-dimensional latent variable accounting for the uncertainty in the functions drawn from NPs. Some recent works show that this can be improved with more "data-driven" source of uncertainty such as bootstrapping. In this work, we take a different approach based on the martingale posterior, a recently developed alternative to Bayesian inference. For the martingale posterior, instead of specifying prior-likelihood pairs, a predictive distribution for future data is specified. Under specific conditions on the predictive distribution, it can be shown that the uncertainty in the generated future data actually corresponds to the uncertainty of the implicitly defined Bayesian posteriors. Based on this result, instead of assuming any form of the latent variables, we equip a NP with a predictive distribution implicitly defined with neural networks and use the corresponding martingale posteriors as the source of uncertainty. The resulting model, which we name as Martingale Posterior Neural Process (MPNP), is demonstrated to outperform baselines on various tasks.

Motivated by concerns about making online decisions that incur undue amount of risk at each time step, in this paper, we formulate the probably anytime-safe stochastic combinatorial semi-bandits problem. In this problem, the agent is given the option to select a subset of size at most K from a set of L ground items. Each item is associated to a certain mean reward as well as a variance that represents its risk. To mitigate the risk that the agent incurs, we require that with probability at least 1-delta, over the entire horizon of time T, each of the choices that the agent makes should contain items whose sum of variances does not exceed a certain variance budget. We call this probably anytime-safe constraint. Under this constraint, we design and analyze an algorithm {\sc PASCombUCB} that minimizes the regret over the horizon of time T. By developing accompanying information-theoretic lower bounds, we show that under both the problem-dependent and problem-independent paradigms, {\sc PASCombUCB} is almost asymptotically optimal. Experiments are conducted to corroborate our theoretical findings. Our problem setup, the proposed {\sc PASCombUCB} algorithm, and novel analyses are applicable to domains such as recommendation systems and transportation in which an agent is allowed to choose multiple items at a single time step and wishes to control the risk over the whole time horizon.

In e-commerce industry, user behavior sequence data has been widely used in many business units such as search and merchandising to improve their products. However, it is rarely used in financial services not only due to its 3V characteristics - i.e. Volume, Velocity and Variety - but also due to its unstructured nature. In this paper, we propose a Financial Service scenario Deep learning based Behavior data representation method for Clustering (FinDeepBehaviorCluster) to detect fraudulent transactions. To utilize the behavior sequence data, we treat click stream data as event sequence, use time attention based Bi-LSTM to learn the sequence embedding in an unsupervised fashion, and combine them with intuitive features generated by risk experts to form a hybrid feature representation. We also propose a GPU powered HDBSCAN (pHDBSCAN) algorithm, which is an engineering optimization for the original HDBSCAN algorithm based on FAISS project, so that clustering can be carried out on hundreds of millions of transactions within a few minutes. The computation efficiency of the algorithm has increased 500 times compared with the original implementation, which makes flash fraud pattern detection feasible. Our experimental results show that the proposed FinDeepBehaviorCluster framework is able to catch missed fraudulent transactions with considerable business values. In addition, rule extraction method is applied to extract patterns from risky clusters using intuitive features, so that narrative descriptions can be attached to the risky clusters for case investigation, and unknown risk patterns can be mined for real-time fraud detection. In summary, FinDeepBehaviorCluster as a complementary risk management strategy to the existing real-time fraud detection engine, can further increase our fraud detection and proactive risk defense capabilities.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

Flow-based generative models have been employed for sampling the Boltzmann distribution, but their application to high-dimensional systems is hindered by the significant computational cost of obtaining the Jacobian of the flow. To overcome this challenge, we introduce the flow perturbation method, which incorporates optimized stochastic perturbations into the flow. By reweighting trajectories generated by the perturbed flow, our method achieves unbiased sampling of the Boltzmann distribution with orders of magnitude speedup compared to both brute force Jacobian calculations and the Hutchinson estimator. Notably, it accurately sampled the Chignolin protein with all atomic Cartesian coordinates explicitly represented, which, to our best knowledge, is the largest molecule ever Boltzmann sampled in such detail using generative models.

Recent successful generative models are trained by fitting a neural network to an a-priori defined tractable probability density path taking noise to training examples. In this paper we investigate the space of Gaussian probability paths, which includes diffusion paths as an instance, and look for an optimal member in some useful sense. In particular, minimizing the Kinetic Energy (KE) of a path is known to make particles' trajectories simple, hence easier to sample, and empirically improve performance in terms of likelihood of unseen data and sample generation quality. We investigate Kinetic Optimal (KO) Gaussian paths and offer the following observations: (i) We show the KE takes a simplified form on the space of Gaussian paths, where the data is incorporated only through a single, one dimensional scalar function, called the data separation function. (ii) We characterize the KO solutions with a one dimensional ODE. (iii) We approximate data-dependent KO paths by approximating the data separation function and minimizing the KE. (iv) We prove that the data separation function converges to 1 in the general case of arbitrary normalized dataset consisting of n samples in d dimension as n/drightarrow 0. A consequence of this result is that the Conditional Optimal Transport (Cond-OT) path becomes kinetic optimal as n/drightarrow 0. We further support this theory with empirical experiments on ImageNet.

User churn, characterized by customers ending their relationship with a business, has profound economic consequences across various Business-to-Customer scenarios. For numerous system-to-user actions, such as promotional discounts and retention campaigns, predicting potential churners stands as a primary objective. In volatile sectors like fantasy sports, unpredictable factors such as international sports events can influence even regular spending habits. Consequently, while transaction history and user-product interaction are valuable in predicting churn, they demand deep domain knowledge and intricate feature engineering. Additionally, feature development for churn prediction systems can be resource-intensive, particularly in production settings serving 200m+ users, where inference pipelines largely focus on feature engineering. This paper conducts an exhaustive study on predicting user churn using historical data. We aim to create a model forecasting customer churn likelihood, facilitating businesses in comprehending attrition trends and formulating effective retention plans. Our approach treats churn prediction as multivariate time series classification, demonstrating that combining user activity and deep neural networks yields remarkable results for churn prediction in complex business-to-customer contexts.

Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.

Despite tremendous success in many application scenarios, the training and inference costs of using deep learning are also rapidly increasing over time. The lottery ticket hypothesis (LTH) emerges as a promising framework to leverage a special sparse subnetwork (i.e., winning ticket) instead of a full model for both training and inference, that can lower both costs without sacrificing the performance. The main resource bottleneck of LTH is however the extraordinary cost to find the sparse mask of the winning ticket. That makes the found winning ticket become a valuable asset to the owners, highlighting the necessity of protecting its copyright. Our setting adds a new dimension to the recently soaring interest in protecting against the intellectual property (IP) infringement of deep models and verifying their ownerships, since they take owners' massive/unique resources to develop or train. While existing methods explored encrypted weights or predictions, we investigate a unique way to leverage sparse topological information to perform lottery verification, by developing several graph-based signatures that can be embedded as credentials. By further combining trigger set-based methods, our proposal can work in both white-box and black-box verification scenarios. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of lottery verification in diverse models (ResNet-20, ResNet-18, ResNet-50) on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100. Specifically, our verification is shown to be robust to removal attacks such as model fine-tuning and pruning, as well as several ambiguity attacks. Our codes are available at https://github.com/VITA-Group/NO-stealing-LTH.

Legal practitioners, particularly those early in their careers, face complex, high-stakes tasks that require adaptive, context-sensitive reasoning. While AI holds promise in supporting legal work, current datasets and models are narrowly focused on isolated subtasks and fail to capture the end-to-end decision-making required in real-world practice. To address this gap, we introduce LawFlow, a dataset of complete end-to-end legal workflows collected from trained law students, grounded in real-world business entity formation scenarios. Unlike prior datasets focused on input-output pairs or linear chains of thought, LawFlow captures dynamic, modular, and iterative reasoning processes that reflect the ambiguity, revision, and client-adaptive strategies of legal practice. Using LawFlow, we compare human and LLM-generated workflows, revealing systematic differences in structure, reasoning flexibility, and plan execution. Human workflows tend to be modular and adaptive, while LLM workflows are more sequential, exhaustive, and less sensitive to downstream implications. Our findings also suggest that legal professionals prefer AI to carry out supportive roles, such as brainstorming, identifying blind spots, and surfacing alternatives, rather than executing complex workflows end-to-end. Building on these findings, we propose a set of design suggestions, rooted in empirical observations, that align AI assistance with human goals of clarity, completeness, creativity, and efficiency, through hybrid planning, adaptive execution, and decision-point support. Our results highlight both the current limitations of LLMs in supporting complex legal workflows and opportunities for developing more collaborative, reasoning-aware legal AI systems. All data and code are available on our project page (https://minnesotanlp.github.io/LawFlow-website/).

We discovered the underlying physics in Next-token Prediction (NTP). We identified the law of information conservation within NTP and proposed the First Law of Information Capacity (IC-1), demonstrating that the essence of intelligence emergence in auto-regressive models is fundamentally a process of information transfer. We also introduced Landauer's Principle into NTP, formulating the Second Law of Information Capacity (IC-2), which establishes the relationship between auto-regressive model training and energy consumption. Additionally, we presented several corollaries, which hold practical significance for production practices. Finally, we validated the compatibility and complementarity of our findings with existing theories.

Solving Bayesian inverse problems efficiently remains a significant challenge due to the complexity of posterior distributions and the computational cost of traditional sampling methods. Given a series of observations and the forward model, we want to recover the distribution of the parameters, conditioned on observed experimental data. We show, that combining Conditional Flow Mathching (CFM) with transformer-based architecture, we can efficiently sample from such kind of distribution, conditioned on variable number of observations.

This paper introduces a novel type theory and logic for probabilistic reasoning. Its logic is quantitative, with fuzzy predicates. It includes normalisation and conditioning of states. This conditioning uses a key aspect that distinguishes our probabilistic type theory from quantum type theory, namely the bijective correspondence between predicates and side-effect free actions (called instrument, or assert, maps). The paper shows how suitable computation rules can be derived from this predicate-action correspondence, and uses these rules for calculating conditional probabilities in two well-known examples of Bayesian reasoning in (graphical) models. Our type theory may thus form the basis for a mechanisation of Bayesian inference.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Existing machine learning methods for causal inference usually estimate quantities expressed via the mean of potential outcomes (e.g., average treatment effect). However, such quantities do not capture the full information about the distribution of potential outcomes. In this work, we estimate the density of potential outcomes after interventions from observational data. For this, we propose a novel, fully-parametric deep learning method called Interventional Normalizing Flows. Specifically, we combine two normalizing flows, namely (i) a nuisance flow for estimating nuisance parameters and (ii) a target flow for parametric estimation of the density of potential outcomes. We further develop a tractable optimization objective based on a one-step bias correction for efficient and doubly robust estimation of the target flow parameters. As a result, our Interventional Normalizing Flows offer a properly normalized density estimator. Across various experiments, we demonstrate that our Interventional Normalizing Flows are expressive and highly effective, and scale well with both sample size and high-dimensional confounding. To the best of our knowledge, our Interventional Normalizing Flows are the first proper fully-parametric, deep learning method for density estimation of potential outcomes.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

This paper develops a new mathematical-statistical approach to analyze a class of Flajolet-Martin algorithms (FMa), and provides analytical confidence intervals for the number F0 of distinct elements in a stream, based on Chernoff bounds. The class of FMa has reached a significant popularity in bigdata stream learning, and the attention of the literature has mainly been based on algorithmic aspects, basically complexity optimality, while the statistical analysis of these class of algorithms has been often faced heuristically. The analysis provided here shows deep connections with mathematical special functions and with extreme value theory. The latter connection may help in explaining heuristic considerations, while the first opens many numerical issues, faced at the end of the present paper. Finally, the algorithms are tested on an anonymized real data stream and MonteCarlo simulations are provided to support our analytical choice in this context.

To enable Large Language Models (LLMs) to function as conscious agents with generalizable reasoning capabilities, it is crucial that they possess the reasoning ability to comprehend situational changes (transitions) in distribution triggered by environmental factors or actions from other agents. Despite its fundamental significance, this ability remains underexplored due to the complexity of modeling infinite possible changes in an event and their associated distributions, coupled with the lack of benchmark data with situational transitions. Addressing these gaps, we propose a novel formulation of reasoning with distributional changes as a three-step discriminative process, termed as MetAphysical ReaSoning. We then introduce the first-ever benchmark, MARS, comprising three tasks corresponding to each step. These tasks systematically assess LLMs' capabilities in reasoning the plausibility of (i) changes in actions, (ii) states caused by changed actions, and (iii) situational transitions driven by changes in action. Extensive evaluations with 20 (L)LMs of varying sizes and methods indicate that all three tasks in this process pose significant challenges, even for state-of-the-art LLMs and LMs after fine-tuning. Further analyses reveal potential causes for the underperformance of LLMs and demonstrate that pre-training them on large-scale conceptualization taxonomies can potentially enhance their metaphysical reasoning capabilities. Our data and models are publicly accessible at https://github.com/HKUST-KnowComp/MARS.

Diffusion models have greatly improved visual generation but are hindered by slow generation speed due to the computationally intensive nature of solving generative ODEs. Rectified flow, a widely recognized solution, improves generation speed by straightening the ODE path. Its key components include: 1) using the diffusion form of flow-matching, 2) employing boldsymbol v-prediction, and 3) performing rectification (a.k.a. reflow). In this paper, we argue that the success of rectification primarily lies in using a pretrained diffusion model to obtain matched pairs of noise and samples, followed by retraining with these matched noise-sample pairs. Based on this, components 1) and 2) are unnecessary. Furthermore, we highlight that straightness is not an essential training target for rectification; rather, it is a specific case of flow-matching models. The more critical training target is to achieve a first-order approximate ODE path, which is inherently curved for models like DDPM and Sub-VP. Building on this insight, we propose Rectified Diffusion, which generalizes the design space and application scope of rectification to encompass the broader category of diffusion models, rather than being restricted to flow-matching models. We validate our method on Stable Diffusion v1-5 and Stable Diffusion XL. Our method not only greatly simplifies the training procedure of rectified flow-based previous works (e.g., InstaFlow) but also achieves superior performance with even lower training cost. Our code is available at https://github.com/G-U-N/Rectified-Diffusion.

In this article, we propose a new counter-based implementation of John von Neumann's middle-square random number generator (RNG). Several rounds of squaring are applied to a counter to produce a random output. We discovered that four rounds are sufficient to provide satisfactory data. Two versions of the RNG are presented, a 4-round version with 32-bit output and a 5-round version with 64-bit output. Both pass stringent tests of randomness and may be the fastest counter-based generators.

Causal Inference plays an significant role in explaining the decisions taken by statistical models and artificial intelligence models. Of late, this field started attracting the attention of researchers and practitioners alike. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of 37 papers published during 1992-2023 and concerning the application of causal inference to banking, finance, and insurance. The papers are categorized according to the following families of domains: (i) Banking, (ii) Finance and its subdomains such as corporate finance, governance finance including financial risk and financial policy, financial economics, and Behavioral finance, and (iii) Insurance. Further, the paper covers the primary ingredients of causal inference namely, statistical methods such as Bayesian Causal Network, Granger Causality and jargon used thereof such as counterfactuals. The review also recommends some important directions for future research. In conclusion, we observed that the application of causal inference in the banking and insurance sectors is still in its infancy, and thus more research is possible to turn it into a viable method.

As the probability (and thus perplexity) of a text is calculated based on the product of the probabilities of individual tokens, it may happen that one unlikely token significantly reduces the probability (i.e., increase the perplexity) of some otherwise highly probable input, while potentially representing a simple typographical error. Also, given that perplexity is a scalar value that refers to the entire input, information about the probability distribution within it is lost in the calculation (a relatively good text that has one unlikely token and another text in which each token is equally likely they can have the same perplexity value), especially for longer texts. As an alternative to scalar perplexity this research proposes a simple algorithm used to calculate vector values based on n-gram perplexities within the input. Such representations consider the previously mentioned aspects, and instead of a unique value, the relative perplexity of each text token is calculated, and these values are combined into a single vector representing the input.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

As unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) continue to integrate into the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS), there is a need to quantify the risk of airborne collisions between unmanned and manned aircraft to support regulation and standards development. Developing and certifying collision avoidance systems often rely on the extensive use of Monte Carlo collision risk analysis simulations using probabilistic models of aircraft flight. To train these models, high performance computing resources are required. We've prototyped a high performance computing workflow designed and deployed on the Lincoln Laboratory Supercomputing Center to process billions of observations of aircraft. However, the prototype has various computational and storage bottlenecks that limited rapid or more comprehensive analyses and models. In response, we have developed a novel workflow to take advantage of various job launch and task distribution technologies to improve performance. The workflow was benchmarked using two datasets of observations of aircraft, including a new dataset focused on the environment around aerodromes. Optimizing how the workflow was parallelized drastically reduced the execution time from weeks to days.

We introduce OpenRAND, a C++17 library aimed at facilitating reproducible scientific research through the generation of statistically robust and yet replicable random numbers. OpenRAND accommodates single and multi-threaded applications on CPUs and GPUs and offers a simplified, user-friendly API that complies with the C++ standard's random number engine interface. It is portable: it functions seamlessly as a lightweight, header-only library, making it adaptable to a wide spectrum of software and hardware platforms. It is statistically robust: a suite of built-in tests ensures no pattern exists within single or multiple streams. Despite the simplicity and portability, it is remarkably performant-matching and sometimes even outperforming native libraries by a significant margin. Our tests, including a Brownian walk simulation, affirm its reproducibility and highlight its computational efficiency, outperforming CUDA's cuRAND by up to 1.8 times.

We consider the problem of estimating the optimal transport map between two probability distributions, P and Q in mathbb R^d, on the basis of i.i.d. samples. All existing statistical analyses of this problem require the assumption that the transport map is Lipschitz, a strong requirement that, in particular, excludes any examples where the transport map is discontinuous. As a first step towards developing estimation procedures for discontinuous maps, we consider the important special case where the data distribution Q is a discrete measure supported on a finite number of points in mathbb R^d. We study a computationally efficient estimator initially proposed by Pooladian and Niles-Weed (2021), based on entropic optimal transport, and show in the semi-discrete setting that it converges at the minimax-optimal rate n^{-1/2}, independent of dimension. Other standard map estimation techniques both lack finite-sample guarantees in this setting and provably suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We confirm these results in numerical experiments, and provide experiments for other settings, not covered by our theory, which indicate that the entropic estimator is a promising methodology for other discontinuous transport map estimation problems.

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

Artificial intelligence commonly refers to the science and engineering of artificial systems that can carry out tasks generally associated with requiring aspects of human intelligence, such as playing games, translating languages, and driving cars. In recent years, there have been exciting advances in learning-based, data-driven approaches towards AI, and machine learning and deep learning have enabled computer systems to perceive the world in unprecedented ways. Reinforcement learning has enabled breakthroughs in complex games such as Go and challenging robotics tasks such as quadrupedal locomotion. A key aspect of intelligence is to not only make predictions, but reason about the uncertainty in these predictions, and to consider this uncertainty when making decisions. This is what this manuscript on "Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence" is about. The first part covers probabilistic approaches to machine learning. We discuss the differentiation between "epistemic" uncertainty due to lack of data and "aleatoric" uncertainty, which is irreducible and stems, e.g., from noisy observations and outcomes. We discuss concrete approaches towards probabilistic inference and modern approaches to efficient approximate inference. The second part of the manuscript is about taking uncertainty into account in sequential decision tasks. We consider active learning and Bayesian optimization -- approaches that collect data by proposing experiments that are informative for reducing the epistemic uncertainty. We then consider reinforcement learning and modern deep RL approaches that use neural network function approximation. We close by discussing modern approaches in model-based RL, which harness epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty to guide exploration, while also reasoning about safety.

In recent years, there has been an emerging trend of combining two innovations in computer science and physics to achieve better computation capability. Exploring the potential of quantum computation to achieve highly efficient performance in various tasks is a vital development in engineering and a valuable question in sciences, as it has a significant potential to provide exponential speedups for technologically complex problems that are specifically advantageous to quantum computers. However, one key issue in unleashing this potential is constructing an efficient approach to load classical data into quantum states that can be executed by quantum computers or quantum simulators on classical hardware. Therefore, the split-step quantum walks (SSQW) algorithm was proposed to address this limitation. We facilitate SSQW to design parameterized quantum circuits (PQC) that can generate probability distributions and optimize the parameters to achieve the desired distribution using a variational solver. A practical example of implementing SSQW using Qiskit has been released as open-source software. Showing its potential as a promising method for generating desired probability amplitude distributions highlights the potential application of SSQW in option pricing through quantum simulation.

Traffic signal control is an emerging application scenario for reinforcement learning. Besides being as an important problem that affects people's daily life in commuting, traffic signal control poses its unique challenges for reinforcement learning in terms of adapting to dynamic traffic environment and coordinating thousands of agents including vehicles and pedestrians. A key factor in the success of modern reinforcement learning relies on a good simulator to generate a large number of data samples for learning. The most commonly used open-source traffic simulator SUMO is, however, not scalable to large road network and large traffic flow, which hinders the study of reinforcement learning on traffic scenarios. This motivates us to create a new traffic simulator CityFlow with fundamentally optimized data structures and efficient algorithms. CityFlow can support flexible definitions for road network and traffic flow based on synthetic and real-world data. It also provides user-friendly interface for reinforcement learning. Most importantly, CityFlow is more than twenty times faster than SUMO and is capable of supporting city-wide traffic simulation with an interactive render for monitoring. Besides traffic signal control, CityFlow could serve as the base for other transportation studies and can create new possibilities to test machine learning methods in the intelligent transportation domain.

Generative flow networks (GFlowNets) are a family of algorithms that learn a generative policy to sample discrete objects x with non-negative reward R(x). Learning objectives guarantee the GFlowNet samples x from the target distribution p^*(x) propto R(x) when loss is globally minimized over all states or trajectories, but it is unclear how well they perform with practical limits on training resources. We introduce an efficient evaluation strategy to compare the learned sampling distribution to the target reward distribution. As flows can be underdetermined given training data, we clarify the importance of learned flows to generalization and matching p^*(x) in practice. We investigate how to learn better flows, and propose (i) prioritized replay training of high-reward x, (ii) relative edge flow policy parametrization, and (iii) a novel guided trajectory balance objective, and show how it can solve a substructure credit assignment problem. We substantially improve sample efficiency on biochemical design tasks.

It is typically understood that the training of modern neural networks is a process of fitting the probability distribution of desired output. However, recent paradoxical observations in a number of language generation tasks let one wonder if this canonical probability-based explanation can really account for the empirical success of deep learning. To resolve this issue, we propose an alternative utility-based explanation to the standard supervised learning procedure in deep learning. The basic idea is to interpret the learned neural network not as a probability model but as an ordinal utility function that encodes the preference revealed in training data. In this perspective, training of the neural network corresponds to a utility learning process. Specifically, we show that for all neural networks with softmax outputs, the SGD learning dynamic of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) can be seen as an iteration process that optimizes the neural network toward an optimal utility function. This utility-based interpretation can explain several otherwise-paradoxical observations about the neural networks thus trained. Moreover, our utility-based theory also entails an equation that can transform the learned utility values back to a new kind of probability estimation with which probability-compatible decision rules enjoy dramatic (double-digits) performance improvements. These evidences collectively reveal a phenomenon of utility-probability duality in terms of what modern neural networks are (truly) modeling: We thought they are one thing (probabilities), until the unexplainable showed up; changing mindset and treating them as another thing (utility values) largely reconcile the theory, despite remaining subtleties regarding its original (probabilistic) identity.

In this research, we have empirically investigated the key drivers affecting liquidity in equity markets. We illustrated how theoretical models, such as Kyle's model, of agents' interplay in the financial markets, are aligned with the phenomena observed in publicly available trades and quotes data. Specifically, we confirmed that for small signed order-flows, the price impact grows linearly with increase in the order-flow imbalance. We have, further, implemented a machine learning algorithm to forecast market impact given a signed order-flow. Our findings suggest that machine learning models can be used in estimation of financial variables; and predictive accuracy of such learning algorithms can surpass the performance of traditional statistical approaches. Understanding the determinants of price impact is crucial for several reasons. From a theoretical stance, modelling the impact provides a statistical measure of liquidity. Practitioners adopt impact models as a pre-trade tool to estimate expected transaction costs and optimize the execution of their strategies. This further serves as a post-trade valuation benchmark as suboptimal execution can significantly deteriorate a portfolio performance. More broadly, the price impact reflects the balance of liquidity across markets. This is of central importance to regulators as it provides an all-encompassing explanation of the correlation between market design and systemic risk, enabling regulators to design more stable and efficient markets.

We address the problem of finite-horizon control of a discrete-time linear system, where the initial state distribution follows a Gaussian mixture model, the terminal state must follow a specified Gaussian distribution, and the state and control inputs must obey chance constraints. We show that, throughout the time horizon, the state and control distributions are fully characterized by Gaussian mixtures. We then formulate the cost, distributional terminal constraint, and affine/2-norm chance constraints on the state and control, as convex functions of the decision variables. This is leveraged to formulate the chance-constrained path planning problem as a single convex optimization problem. A numerical example demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

We introduce Probabilistic Dependent Type Systems (PDTS) via a functional language based on a subsystem of intuitionistic type theory including dependent sums and products, which is expanded to include stochastic functions. We provide a sampling-based semantics for the language based on non-deterministic beta reduction. Further, we derive a probabilistic logic from the PDTS introduced as a direct result of the Curry-Howard isomorphism. The probabilistic logic derived is shown to provide a universal representation for finite discrete distributions.

We develop Markov categories as a framework for synthetic probability and statistics, following work of Golubtsov as well as Cho and Jacobs. This means that we treat the following concepts in purely abstract categorical terms: conditioning and disintegration; various versions of conditional independence and its standard properties; conditional products; almost surely; sufficient statistics; versions of theorems on sufficient statistics due to Fisher--Neyman, Basu, and Bahadur. Besides the conceptual clarity offered by our categorical setup, its main advantage is that it provides a uniform treatment of various types of probability theory, including discrete probability theory, measure-theoretic probability with general measurable spaces, Gaussian probability, stochastic processes of either of these kinds, and many others.

In this work, we introduce ChemBFN, a language model that handles chemistry tasks based on Bayesian flow networks working on discrete data. A new accuracy schedule is proposed to improve the sampling quality by significantly reducing the reconstruction loss. We show evidence that our method is appropriate for generating molecules with satisfied diversity even when a smaller number of sampling steps is used. A classifier-free guidance method is adapted for conditional generation. It is also worthwhile to point out that after generative training, our model can be fine-tuned on regression and classification tasks with the state-of-the-art performance, which opens the gate of building all-in-one models in a single module style. Our model has been open sourced at https://github.com/Augus1999/bayesian-flow-network-for-chemistry.

Reasoning is most powerful when an LLM accurately aggregates relevant information. We examine the critical role of information aggregation in reasoning by requiring the LLM to analyze sports narratives. To succeed at this task, an LLM must infer points from actions, identify related entities, attribute points accurately to players and teams, and compile key statistics to draw conclusions. We conduct comprehensive experiments with real NBA basketball data and present SportsGen, a new method to synthesize game narratives. By synthesizing data, we can rigorously evaluate LLMs' reasoning capabilities under complex scenarios with varying narrative lengths and density of information. Our findings show that most models, including GPT-4o, often fail to accurately aggregate basketball scores due to frequent scoring patterns. Open-source models like Llama-3 further suffer from significant score hallucinations. Finally, the effectiveness of reasoning is influenced by narrative complexity, information density, and domain-specific terms, highlighting the challenges in analytical reasoning tasks.

Diffusion models produce impressive results in modalities ranging from images and video to protein design and text. However, generating samples with user-specified properties remains a challenge. Recent research proposes fine-tuning models to maximize rewards that capture desired properties, but these methods require expensive training and are prone to mode collapse. In this work, we propose Feynman Kac (FK) steering, an inference-time framework for steering diffusion models with reward functions. FK steering works by sampling a system of multiple interacting diffusion processes, called particles, and resampling particles at intermediate steps based on scores computed using functions called potentials. Potentials are defined using rewards for intermediate states and are selected such that a high value indicates that the particle will yield a high-reward sample. We explore various choices of potentials, intermediate rewards, and samplers. We evaluate FK steering on text-to-image and text diffusion models. For steering text-to-image models with a human preference reward, we find that FK steering a 0.8B parameter model outperforms a 2.6B parameter fine-tuned model on prompt fidelity, with faster sampling and no training. For steering text diffusion models with rewards for text quality and specific text attributes, we find that FK steering generates lower perplexity, more linguistically acceptable outputs and enables gradient-free control of attributes like toxicity. Our results demonstrate that inference-time scaling and steering of diffusion models, even with off-the-shelf rewards, can provide significant sample quality gains and controllability benefits. Code is available at https://github.com/zacharyhorvitz/Fk-Diffusion-Steering .

This paper generalises the treatment of compositional game theory as introduced by the second and third authors with Ghani and Winschel, where games are modelled as morphisms of a symmetric monoidal category. From an economic modelling perspective, the existing notion of an open game is not expressive enough for many applications. This includes stochastic environments, stochastic choices by players, as well as incomplete information regarding the game being played. The current paper addresses these three issue all at once. To achieve this we make significant use of category theory, especially the 'coend optics' of Riley.

The problem of attributing a deep network's prediction to its input/base features is well-studied. We introduce the notion of conductance to extend the notion of attribution to the understanding the importance of hidden units. Informally, the conductance of a hidden unit of a deep network is the flow of attribution via this hidden unit. We use conductance to understand the importance of a hidden unit to the prediction for a specific input, or over a set of inputs. We evaluate the effectiveness of conductance in multiple ways, including theoretical properties, ablation studies, and a feature selection task. The empirical evaluations are done using the Inception network over ImageNet data, and a sentiment analysis network over reviews. In both cases, we demonstrate the effectiveness of conductance in identifying interesting insights about the internal workings of these networks.

The Brownian sphere is a random metric space, homeomorphic to the two-dimensional sphere, which arises as the universal scaling limit of many types of random planar maps. The direct construction of the Brownian sphere is via a continuous analogue of the Cori--Vauquelin--Schaeffer (CVS) bijection. The CVS bijection maps labeled trees to planar maps, and the continuous version maps Aldous' continuum random tree with Brownian labels (the Brownian snake) to the Brownian sphere. In this work, we describe the inverse of the continuous CVS bijection, by constructing the Brownian snake as a measurable function of the Brownian sphere. Special care is needed to work with the orientation of the Brownian sphere.

Diffusion or flow-based models are powerful generative paradigms that are notoriously hard to sample as samples are defined as solutions to high-dimensional Ordinary or Stochastic Differential Equations (ODEs/SDEs) which require a large Number of Function Evaluations (NFE) to approximate well. Existing methods to alleviate the costly sampling process include model distillation and designing dedicated ODE solvers. However, distillation is costly to train and sometimes can deteriorate quality, while dedicated solvers still require relatively large NFE to produce high quality samples. In this paper we introduce "Bespoke solvers", a novel framework for constructing custom ODE solvers tailored to the ODE of a given pre-trained flow model. Our approach optimizes an order consistent and parameter-efficient solver (e.g., with 80 learnable parameters), is trained for roughly 1% of the GPU time required for training the pre-trained model, and significantly improves approximation and generation quality compared to dedicated solvers. For example, a Bespoke solver for a CIFAR10 model produces samples with Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID) of 2.73 with 10 NFE, and gets to 1% of the Ground Truth (GT) FID (2.59) for this model with only 20 NFE. On the more challenging ImageNet-64times64, Bespoke samples at 2.2 FID with 10 NFE, and gets within 2% of GT FID (1.71) with 20 NFE.

Bayes' rule tells us how to invert a causal process in order to update our beliefs in light of new evidence. If the process is believed to have a complex compositional structure, we may ask whether composing the inversions of the component processes gives the same belief update as the inversion of the whole. We answer this question affirmatively, showing that the relevant compositional structure is precisely that of the lens pattern, and that we can think of Bayesian inversion as a particular instance of a state-dependent morphism in a corresponding fibred category. We define a general notion of (mixed) Bayesian lens, and discuss the (un)lawfulness of these lenses when their contravariant components are exact Bayesian inversions. We prove our main result both abstractly and concretely, for both discrete and continuous states, taking care to illustrate the common structures.

The prevalence and importance of algorithmic two-sided marketplaces has drawn attention to the issue of fairness in such settings. Algorithmic decisions are used in assigning students to schools, users to advertisers, and applicants to job interviews. These decisions should heed the preferences of individuals, and simultaneously be fair with respect to their merits (synonymous with fit, future performance, or need). Merits conditioned on observable features are always uncertain, a fact that is exacerbated by the widespread use of machine learning algorithms to infer merit from the observables. As our key contribution, we carefully axiomatize a notion of individual fairness in the two-sided marketplace setting which respects the uncertainty in the merits; indeed, it simultaneously recognizes uncertainty as the primary potential cause of unfairness and an approach to address it. We design a linear programming framework to find fair utility-maximizing distributions over allocations, and we show that the linear program is robust to perturbations in the estimated parameters of the uncertain merit distributions, a key property in combining the approach with machine learning techniques.

Over the last few years, machine learning based methods have been applied to extract information from news flow in the financial domain. However, this information has mostly been in the form of the financial sentiments contained in the news headlines, primarily for the stock prices. In our current work, we propose that various other dimensions of information can be extracted from news headlines, which will be of interest to investors, policy-makers and other practitioners. We propose a framework that extracts information such as past movements and expected directionality in prices, asset comparison and other general information that the news is referring to. We apply this framework to the commodity "Gold" and train the machine learning models using a dataset of 11,412 human-annotated news headlines (released with this study), collected from the period 2000-2019. We experiment to validate the causal effect of news flow on gold prices and observe that the information produced from our framework significantly impacts the future gold price.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are models that allow exact and tractable probabilistic inference. In contrast to neural networks, they are often assumed to be well-calibrated and robust to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. In this paper, we show that PCs are in fact not robust to OOD data, i.e., they don't know what they don't know. We then show how this challenge can be overcome by model uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose tractable dropout inference (TDI), an inference procedure to estimate uncertainty by deriving an analytical solution to Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) through variance propagation. Unlike MCD in neural networks, which comes at the cost of multiple network evaluations, TDI provides tractable sampling-free uncertainty estimates in a single forward pass. TDI improves the robustness of PCs to distribution shift and OOD data, demonstrated through a series of experiments evaluating the classification confidence and uncertainty estimates on real-world data.

Inspired by the fact that the neural network, as the mainstream for machine learning, has brought successes in many application areas, here we propose to use this approach for decoding hidden correlation among pseudo-random data and predicting events accordingly. With a simple neural network structure and a typical training procedure, we demonstrate the learning and prediction power of the neural network in extremely random environment. Finally, we postulate that the high sensitivity and efficiency of the neural network may allow to critically test if there could be any fundamental difference between quantum randomness and pseudo randomness, which is equivalent to the question: Does God play dice?

Diffusion models (DMs) excel in photorealism, image editing, and solving inverse problems, aided by classifier-free guidance and image inversion techniques. However, rectified flow models (RFMs) remain underexplored for these tasks. Existing DM-based methods often require additional training, lack generalization to pretrained latent models, underperform, and demand significant computational resources due to extensive backpropagation through ODE solvers and inversion processes. In this work, we first develop a theoretical and empirical understanding of the vector field dynamics of RFMs in efficiently guiding the denoising trajectory. Our findings reveal that we can navigate the vector field in a deterministic and gradient-free manner. Utilizing this property, we propose FlowChef, which leverages the vector field to steer the denoising trajectory for controlled image generation tasks, facilitated by gradient skipping. FlowChef is a unified framework for controlled image generation that, for the first time, simultaneously addresses classifier guidance, linear inverse problems, and image editing without the need for extra training, inversion, or intensive backpropagation. Finally, we perform extensive evaluations and show that FlowChef significantly outperforms baselines in terms of performance, memory, and time requirements, achieving new state-of-the-art results. Project Page: https://flowchef.github.io.

We study the problem of optimally projecting the transition matrix of a finite ergodic multivariate Markov chain onto a lower-dimensional state space. Specifically, we seek to construct a projected Markov chain that optimizes various information-theoretic criteria under cardinality constraints. These criteria include entropy rate, information-theoretic distance to factorizability, independence, and stationarity. We formulate these tasks as best subset selection problems over multivariate Markov chains and leverage the submodular (or supermodular) structure of the objective functions to develop efficient greedy-based algorithms with theoretical guarantees. We extend our analysis to k-submodular settings and introduce a generalized version of the distorted greedy algorithm, which may be of independent interest. Finally, we illustrate the theory and algorithms through extensive numerical experiments with publicly available code on multivariate Markov chains associated with the Bernoulli-Laplace and Curie-Weiss model.

Process supervision enhances the performance of large language models in reasoning tasks by providing feedback at each step of chain-of-thought reasoning. However, due to the lack of effective process supervision methods, even advanced large language models are prone to logical errors and redundant reasoning. We claim that the effectiveness of process supervision significantly depends on both the accuracy and the length of reasoning chains. Moreover, we identify that these factors exhibit a nonlinear relationship with the overall reward score of the reasoning process. Inspired by these insights, we propose a novel process supervision paradigm, PSPO*, which systematically outlines the workflow from reward model training to policy optimization, and highlights the importance of nonlinear rewards in process supervision. Based on PSPO*, we develop the PSPO-WRS, which considers the number of reasoning steps in determining reward scores and utilizes an adjusted Weibull distribution for nonlinear reward shaping. Experimental results on six mathematical reasoning datasets demonstrate that PSPO-WRS consistently outperforms current mainstream models.

The abundance of data has given machine learning considerable momentum in natural sciences and engineering, though modeling of physical processes is often difficult. A particularly tough problem is the efficient representation of geometric boundaries. Triangularized geometric boundaries are well understood and ubiquitous in engineering applications. However, it is notoriously difficult to integrate them into machine learning approaches due to their heterogeneity with respect to size and orientation. In this work, we introduce an effective theory to model particle-boundary interactions, which leads to our new Boundary Graph Neural Networks (BGNNs) that dynamically modify graph structures to obey boundary conditions. The new BGNNs are tested on complex 3D granular flow processes of hoppers, rotating drums and mixers, which are all standard components of modern industrial machinery but still have complicated geometry. BGNNs are evaluated in terms of computational efficiency as well as prediction accuracy of particle flows and mixing entropies. BGNNs are able to accurately reproduce 3D granular flows within simulation uncertainties over hundreds of thousands of simulation timesteps. Most notably, in our experiments, particles stay within the geometric objects without using handcrafted conditions or restrictions.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

The lottery ticket hypothesis (Frankle and Carbin, 2018), states that a randomly-initialized network contains a small subnetwork such that, when trained in isolation, can compete with the performance of the original network. We prove an even stronger hypothesis (as was also conjectured in Ramanujan et al., 2019), showing that for every bounded distribution and every target network with bounded weights, a sufficiently over-parameterized neural network with random weights contains a subnetwork with roughly the same accuracy as the target network, without any further training.

To measure the difference between two probability distributions, referred to as the source and target, respectively, we exploit both the chain rule and Bayes' theorem to construct conditional transport (CT), which is constituted by both a forward component and a backward one. The forward CT is the expected cost of moving a source data point to a target one, with their joint distribution defined by the product of the source probability density function (PDF) and a source-dependent conditional distribution, which is related to the target PDF via Bayes' theorem. The backward CT is defined by reversing the direction. The CT cost can be approximated by replacing the source and target PDFs with their discrete empirical distributions supported on mini-batches, making it amenable to implicit distributions and stochastic gradient descent-based optimization. When applied to train a generative model, CT is shown to strike a good balance between mode-covering and mode-seeking behaviors and strongly resist mode collapse. On a wide variety of benchmark datasets for generative modeling, substituting the default statistical distance of an existing generative adversarial network with CT is shown to consistently improve the performance. PyTorch code is provided.

This paper reports the first brain-inspired large language model (BriLLM). This is a non-Transformer, non-GPT, non-traditional machine learning input-output controlled generative language model. The model is based on the Signal Fully-connected flowing (SiFu) definition on the directed graph in terms of the neural network, and has the interpretability of all nodes on the graph of the whole model, instead of the traditional machine learning model that only has limited interpretability at the input and output ends. In the language model scenario, the token is defined as a node in the graph. A randomly shaped or user-defined signal flow flows between nodes on the principle of "least resistance" along paths. The next token or node to be predicted or generated is the target of the signal flow. As a language model, BriLLM theoretically supports infinitely long n-gram models when the model size is independent of the input and predicted length of the model. The model's working signal flow provides the possibility of recall activation and innate multi-modal support similar to the cognitive patterns of the human brain. At present, we released the first BriLLM version in Chinese, with 4000 tokens, 32-dimensional node width, 16-token long sequence prediction ability, and language model prediction performance comparable to GPT-1. More computing power will help us explore the infinite possibilities depicted above.

Circuits based on sum-product structure have become a ubiquitous representation to compactly encode knowledge, from Boolean functions to probability distributions. By imposing constraints on the structure of such circuits, certain inference queries become tractable, such as model counting and most probable configuration. Recent works have explored analyzing probabilistic and causal inference queries as compositions of basic operators to derive tractability conditions. In this paper, we take an algebraic perspective for compositional inference, and show that a large class of queries - including marginal MAP, probabilistic answer set programming inference, and causal backdoor adjustment - correspond to a combination of basic operators over semirings: aggregation, product, and elementwise mapping. Using this framework, we uncover simple and general sufficient conditions for tractable composition of these operators, in terms of circuit properties (e.g., marginal determinism, compatibility) and conditions on the elementwise mappings. Applying our analysis, we derive novel tractability conditions for many such compositional queries. Our results unify tractability conditions for existing problems on circuits, while providing a blueprint for analysing novel compositional inference queries.

We present a Spades bidding algorithm that is superior to recreational human players and to publicly available bots. Like in Bridge, the game of Spades is composed of two independent phases, bidding and playing. This paper focuses on the bidding algorithm, since this phase holds a precise challenge: based on the input, choose the bid that maximizes the agent's winning probability. Our Bidding-in-Spades (BIS) algorithm heuristically determines the bidding strategy by comparing the expected utility of each possible bid. A major challenge is how to estimate these expected utilities. To this end, we propose a set of domain-specific heuristics, and then correct them via machine learning using data from real-world players. The \BIS algorithm we present can be attached to any playing algorithm. It beats rule-based bidding bots when all use the same playing component. When combined with a rule-based playing algorithm, it is superior to the average recreational human.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

We study whether Large Language Models (LLMs) latently perform multi-hop reasoning with complex prompts such as "The mother of the singer of 'Superstition' is". We look for evidence of a latent reasoning pathway where an LLM (1) latently identifies "the singer of 'Superstition'" as Stevie Wonder, the bridge entity, and (2) uses its knowledge of Stevie Wonder's mother to complete the prompt. We analyze these two hops individually and consider their co-occurrence as indicative of latent multi-hop reasoning. For the first hop, we test if changing the prompt to indirectly mention the bridge entity instead of any other entity increases the LLM's internal recall of the bridge entity. For the second hop, we test if increasing this recall causes the LLM to better utilize what it knows about the bridge entity. We find strong evidence of latent multi-hop reasoning for the prompts of certain relation types, with the reasoning pathway used in more than 80% of the prompts. However, the utilization is highly contextual, varying across different types of prompts. Also, on average, the evidence for the second hop and the full multi-hop traversal is rather moderate and only substantial for the first hop. Moreover, we find a clear scaling trend with increasing model size for the first hop of reasoning but not for the second hop. Our experimental findings suggest potential challenges and opportunities for future development and applications of LLMs.

Armed conflict has led to an unprecedented number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) - individuals who are forced out of their homes but remain within their country. IDPs often urgently require shelter, food, and healthcare, yet prediction of when large fluxes of IDPs will cross into an area remains a major challenge for aid delivery organizations. Accurate forecasting of IDP migration would empower humanitarian aid groups to more effectively allocate resources during conflicts. We show that monthly flow of IDPs from province to province in both Syria and Yemen can be accurately forecasted one month in advance, using publicly available data. We model monthly IDP flow using data on food price, fuel price, wage, geospatial, and news data. We find that machine learning approaches can more accurately forecast migration trends than baseline persistence models. Our findings thus potentially enable proactive aid allocation for IDPs in anticipation of forecasted arrivals.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

Transaction data from digital payment systems can be used to study economic processes at such a detail that was not possible previously. Here, we analyse the data from Sarafu token network, a community inclusion currency in Kenya. During the COVID-19 emergency, the Sarafu was disbursed as part of a humanitarian aid project. In this work, the transactions are analysed using network science. A topological categorisation is defined to identify cyclic and acyclic components. Furthermore, temporal aspects of circulation taking place within these components are considered. The significant presence of different types of strongly connected components as compared to randomized null models shows the importance of cycles in this economic network. Especially, indicating their key role in currency recirculation. In some acyclic components, the most significant triad suggests the presence of a group of users collecting currency from accounts active only once, hinting at a misuse of the system. In some other acyclic components, small isolated groups of users were active only once, suggesting the presence of users only interested in trying out the system. The methods used in this paper can answer specific questions related to user activities, currency design, and assessment of monetary interventions. Our methodology provides a general quantitative tool for analysing the behaviour of users in a currency network.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

For a sequence of random variables (X_1, X_2, ldots, X_n), n geq 1, that are independent and identically distributed with a regularly varying tail with index -alpha, alpha geq 0, we show that the contribution of the maximum term M_n triangleq max(X_1,ldots,X_n) in the sum S_n triangleq X_1 + cdots +X_n, as n to infty, decreases monotonically with alpha in stochastic ordering sense.

We resolve an open problem of Hanneke on the subject of universally consistent online learning with non-i.i.d. processes and unbounded losses. The notion of an optimistically universal learning rule was defined by Hanneke in an effort to study learning theory under minimal assumptions. A given learning rule is said to be optimistically universal if it achieves a low long-run average loss whenever the data generating process makes this goal achievable by some learning rule. Hanneke posed as an open problem whether, for every unbounded loss, the family of processes admitting universal learning are precisely those having a finite number of distinct values almost surely. In this paper, we completely resolve this problem, showing that this is indeed the case. As a consequence, this also offers a dramatically simpler formulation of an optimistically universal learning rule for any unbounded loss: namely, the simple memorization rule already suffices. Our proof relies on constructing random measurable partitions of the instance space and could be of independent interest for solving other open questions. We extend the results to the non-realizable setting thereby providing an optimistically universal Bayes consistent learning rule.

Recent research developing neural network architectures with external memory have often used the benchmark bAbI question and answering dataset which provides a challenging number of tasks requiring reasoning. Here we employed a classic associative inference task from the memory-based reasoning neuroscience literature in order to more carefully probe the reasoning capacity of existing memory-augmented architectures. This task is thought to capture the essence of reasoning -- the appreciation of distant relationships among elements distributed across multiple facts or memories. Surprisingly, we found that current architectures struggle to reason over long distance associations. Similar results were obtained on a more complex task involving finding the shortest path between nodes in a path. We therefore developed MEMO, an architecture endowed with the capacity to reason over longer distances. This was accomplished with the addition of two novel components. First, it introduces a separation between memories (facts) stored in external memory and the items that comprise these facts in external memory. Second, it makes use of an adaptive retrieval mechanism, allowing a variable number of "memory hops" before the answer is produced. MEMO is capable of solving our novel reasoning tasks, as well as match state of the art results in bAbI.

We design a suite of minimal algorithmic tasks that are a loose abstraction of open-ended real-world tasks. This allows us to cleanly and controllably quantify the creative limits of the present-day language model. Much like real-world tasks that require a creative, far-sighted leap of thought, our tasks require an implicit, open-ended stochastic planning step that either (a) discovers new connections in an abstract knowledge graph (like in wordplay, drawing analogies, or research) or (b) constructs new patterns (like in designing math problems or new proteins). In these tasks, we empirically and conceptually argue how next-token learning is myopic and memorizes excessively; comparatively, multi-token approaches, namely teacherless training and diffusion models, excel in producing diverse and original output. Secondly, in our tasks, we find that to elicit randomness from the Transformer without hurting coherence, it is better to inject noise right at the input layer (via a method we dub hash-conditioning) rather than defer to temperature sampling from the output layer. Thus, our work offers a principled, minimal test-bed for analyzing open-ended creative skills, and offers new arguments for going beyond next-token learning and softmax-based sampling. We make part of the code available under https://github.com/chenwu98/algorithmic-creativity

Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large/small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics.

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

As a sub-discipline of evolutionary and computational linguistics, emergent communication (EC) studies communication protocols, called emergent languages, arising in simulations where agents communicate. A key goal of EC is to give rise to languages that share statistical properties with natural languages. In this paper, we reinterpret Lewis's signaling game, a frequently used setting in EC, as beta-VAE and reformulate its objective function as ELBO. Consequently, we clarify the existence of prior distributions of emergent languages and show that the choice of the priors can influence their statistical properties. Specifically, we address the properties of word lengths and segmentation, known as Zipf's law of abbreviation (ZLA) and Harris's articulation scheme (HAS), respectively. It has been reported that the emergent languages do not follow them when using the conventional objective. We experimentally demonstrate that by selecting an appropriate prior distribution, more natural segments emerge, while suggesting that the conventional one prevents the languages from following ZLA and HAS.

River is a machine learning library for dynamic data streams and continual learning. It provides multiple state-of-the-art learning methods, data generators/transformers, performance metrics and evaluators for different stream learning problems. It is the result from the merger of the two most popular packages for stream learning in Python: Creme and scikit-multiflow. River introduces a revamped architecture based on the lessons learnt from the seminal packages. River's ambition is to be the go-to library for doing machine learning on streaming data. Additionally, this open source package brings under the same umbrella a large community of practitioners and researchers. The source code is available at https://github.com/online-ml/river.

In contrast to entropy, which increases monotonically, the "complexity" or "interestingness" of closed systems seems intuitively to increase at first and then decrease as equilibrium is approached. For example, our universe lacked complex structures at the Big Bang and will also lack them after black holes evaporate and particles are dispersed. This paper makes an initial attempt to quantify this pattern. As a model system, we use a simple, two-dimensional cellular automaton that simulates the mixing of two liquids ("coffee" and "cream"). A plausible complexity measure is then the Kolmogorov complexity of a coarse-grained approximation of the automaton's state, which we dub the "apparent complexity." We study this complexity measure, and show analytically that it never becomes large when the liquid particles are non-interacting. By contrast, when the particles do interact, we give numerical evidence that the complexity reaches a maximum comparable to the "coffee cup's" horizontal dimension. We raise the problem of proving this behavior analytically.

Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. In a preregistered study we collected 350{,}757 coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing developed by Diaconis, Holmes, and Montgomery (DHM; 2007). The model asserts that when people flip an ordinary coin, it tends to land on the same side it started -- DHM estimated the probability of a same-side outcome to be about 51%. Our data lend strong support to this precise prediction: the coins landed on the same side more often than not, Pr(same side) = 0.508, 95% credible interval (CI) [0.506, 0.509], BF_{same-side bias} = 2359. Furthermore, the data revealed considerable between-people variation in the degree of this same-side bias. Our data also confirmed the generic prediction that when people flip an ordinary coin -- with the initial side-up randomly determined -- it is equally likely to land heads or tails: Pr(heads) = 0.500, 95% CI [0.498, 0.502], BF_{heads-tails bias} = 0.182. Furthermore, this lack of heads-tails bias does not appear to vary across coins. Additional exploratory analyses revealed that the within-people same-side bias decreased as more coins were flipped, an effect that is consistent with the possibility that practice makes people flip coins in a less wobbly fashion. Our data therefore provide strong evidence that when some (but not all) people flip a fair coin, it tends to land on the same side it started. Our data provide compelling statistical support for the DHM physics model of coin tossing.

We propose prioritized unit propagation with periodic resetting, which is a simple but surprisingly effective algorithm for solving random SAT instances that are meant to be hard. In particular, an evaluation on the Random Track of the 2017 and 2018 SAT competitions shows that a basic prototype of this simple idea already ranks at second place in both years. We share this observation in the hope that it helps the SAT community better understand the hardness of random instances used in competitions and inspire other interesting ideas on SAT solving.

The optimal transport problem for measures supported on non-Euclidean spaces has recently gained ample interest in diverse applications involving representation learning. In this paper, we focus on circular probability measures, i.e., probability measures supported on the unit circle, and introduce a new computationally efficient metric for these measures, denoted as Linear Circular Optimal Transport (LCOT). The proposed metric comes with an explicit linear embedding that allows one to apply Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to the embedded measures and seamlessly modify the underlying metric for the ML algorithm to LCOT. We show that the proposed metric is rooted in the Circular Optimal Transport (COT) and can be considered the linearization of the COT metric with respect to a fixed reference measure. We provide a theoretical analysis of the proposed metric and derive the computational complexities for pairwise comparison of circular probability measures. Lastly, through a set of numerical experiments, we demonstrate the benefits of LCOT in learning representations of circular measures.

Bayes' rule tells us how to invert a causal process in order to update our beliefs in light of new evidence. If the process is believed to have a complex compositional structure, we may observe that the inversion of the whole can be computed piecewise in terms of the component processes. We study the structure of this compositional rule, noting that it relates to the lens pattern in functional programming. Working in a suitably general axiomatic presentation of a category of Markov kernels, we see how we can think of Bayesian inversion as a particular instance of a state-dependent morphism in a fibred category. We discuss the compositional nature of this, formulated as a functor on the underlying category and explore how this can used for a more type-driven approach to statistical inference.

Radio remains a pervasive medium for mass information dissemination, with AM/FM stations reaching more Americans than either smartphone-based social networking or live television. Increasingly, radio broadcasts are also streamed online and accessed over the Internet. We present WavePulse, a framework that records, documents, and analyzes radio content in real-time. While our framework is generally applicable, we showcase the efficacy of WavePulse in a collaborative project with a team of political scientists focusing on the 2024 Presidential Elections. We use WavePulse to monitor livestreams of 396 news radio stations over a period of three months, processing close to 500,000 hours of audio streams. These streams were converted into time-stamped, diarized transcripts and analyzed to track answer key political science questions at both the national and state levels. Our analysis revealed how local issues interacted with national trends, providing insights into information flow. Our results demonstrate WavePulse's efficacy in capturing and analyzing content from radio livestreams sourced from the Web. Code and dataset can be accessed at https://wave-pulse.io.

The human intrinsic desire to pursue knowledge, also known as curiosity, is considered essential in the process of skill acquisition. With the aid of artificial curiosity, we could equip current techniques for control, such as Reinforcement Learning, with more natural exploration capabilities. A promising approach in this respect has consisted of using Bayesian surprise on model parameters, i.e. a metric for the difference between prior and posterior beliefs, to favour exploration. In this contribution, we propose to apply Bayesian surprise in a latent space representing the agent's current understanding of the dynamics of the system, drastically reducing the computational costs. We extensively evaluate our method by measuring the agent's performance in terms of environment exploration, for continuous tasks, and looking at the game scores achieved, for video games. Our model is computationally cheap and compares positively with current state-of-the-art methods on several problems. We also investigate the effects caused by stochasticity in the environment, which is often a failure case for curiosity-driven agents. In this regime, the results suggest that our approach is resilient to stochastic transitions.

Unitary quantum theory, having no Born Rule, is non-probabilistic. Hence the notorious problem of reconciling it with the unpredictability and appearance of stochasticity in quantum measurements. Generalising and improving upon the so-called 'decision-theoretic approach' (Deutsch, 1999; Wallace, 2003, 2007, 2012), I shall recast that problem in the recently proposed constructor theory of information - where quantum theory is represented as one of a class of superinformation theories, which are local, non-probabilistic theories conforming to certain constructor-theoretic conditions. I prove that the unpredictability of measurement outcomes (to which I give an exact meaning via constructor theory), necessarily arises in superinformation theories. Then I explain how the appearance of stochasticity in (finitely many) repeated measurements can arise under superinformation theories. And I establish sufficient conditions for a superinformation theory to inform decisions (made under it) as if it were probabilistic, via a Deutsch-Wallace-type argument - thus defining a class of decision-supporting superinformation theories. This broadens the domain of applicability of that argument to cover constructor-theory compliant theories. In addition, in this version some of the argument's assumptions, previously construed as merely decision-theoretic, follow from physical properties expressed by constructor-theoretic principles.

In this work, we explore the possibility of utilizing transfer learning techniques to address the financial portfolio optimization problem. We introduce a novel concept called "transfer risk", within the optimization framework of transfer learning. A series of numerical experiments are conducted from three categories: cross-continent transfer, cross-sector transfer, and cross-frequency transfer. In particular, 1. a strong correlation between the transfer risk and the overall performance of transfer learning methods is established, underscoring the significance of transfer risk as a viable indicator of "transferability"; 2. transfer risk is shown to provide a computationally efficient way to identify appropriate source tasks in transfer learning, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the transfer learning approach; 3. additionally, the numerical experiments offer valuable new insights for portfolio management across these different settings.

Neural scaling laws (NSL) refer to the phenomenon where model performance improves with scale. Sharma & Kaplan analyzed NSL using approximation theory and predict that MSE losses decay as N^{-alpha}, alpha=4/d, where N is the number of model parameters, and d is the intrinsic input dimension. Although their theory works well for some cases (e.g., ReLU networks), we surprisingly find that a simple 1D problem y=x^2 manifests a different scaling law (alpha=1) from their predictions (alpha=4). We opened the neural networks and found that the new scaling law originates from lottery ticket ensembling: a wider network on average has more "lottery tickets", which are ensembled to reduce the variance of outputs. We support the ensembling mechanism by mechanistically interpreting single neural networks, as well as studying them statistically. We attribute the N^{-1} scaling law to the "central limit theorem" of lottery tickets. Finally, we discuss its potential implications for large language models and statistical physics-type theories of learning.

This paper presents a case study on the design, administration, post-processing, and evaluation of surveys on large language models (LLMs). It comprises two components: (1) A statistical method for eliciting beliefs encoded in LLMs. We introduce statistical measures and evaluation metrics that quantify the probability of an LLM "making a choice", the associated uncertainty, and the consistency of that choice. (2) We apply this method to study what moral beliefs are encoded in different LLMs, especially in ambiguous cases where the right choice is not obvious. We design a large-scale survey comprising 680 high-ambiguity moral scenarios (e.g., "Should I tell a white lie?") and 687 low-ambiguity moral scenarios (e.g., "Should I stop for a pedestrian on the road?"). Each scenario includes a description, two possible actions, and auxiliary labels indicating violated rules (e.g., "do not kill"). We administer the survey to 28 open- and closed-source LLMs. We find that (a) in unambiguous scenarios, most models "choose" actions that align with commonsense. In ambiguous cases, most models express uncertainty. (b) Some models are uncertain about choosing the commonsense action because their responses are sensitive to the question-wording. (c) Some models reflect clear preferences in ambiguous scenarios. Specifically, closed-source models tend to agree with each other.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Markov categories are a novel framework to describe and treat problems in probability and information theory. In this work we combine the categorical formalism with the traditional quantitative notions of entropy, mutual information, and data processing inequalities. We show that several quantitative aspects of information theory can be captured by an enriched version of Markov categories, where the spaces of morphisms are equipped with a divergence or even a metric. As it is customary in information theory, mutual information can be defined as a measure of how far a joint source is from displaying independence of its components. More strikingly, Markov categories give a notion of determinism for sources and channels, and we can define entropy exactly by measuring how far a source or channel is from being deterministic. This recovers Shannon and R\'enyi entropies, as well as the Gini-Simpson index used in ecology to quantify diversity, and it can be used to give a conceptual definition of generalized entropy.