Daily Papers

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

While surface-based view synthesis algorithms are appealing due to their low computational requirements, they often struggle to reproduce thin structures. In contrast, more expensive methods that model the scene's geometry as a volumetric density field (e.g. NeRF) excel at reconstructing fine geometric detail. However, density fields often represent geometry in a "fuzzy" manner, which hinders exact localization of the surface. In this work, we modify density fields to encourage them to converge towards surfaces, without compromising their ability to reconstruct thin structures. First, we employ a discrete opacity grid representation instead of a continuous density field, which allows opacity values to discontinuously transition from zero to one at the surface. Second, we anti-alias by casting multiple rays per pixel, which allows occlusion boundaries and subpixel structures to be modelled without using semi-transparent voxels. Third, we minimize the binary entropy of the opacity values, which facilitates the extraction of surface geometry by encouraging opacity values to binarize towards the end of training. Lastly, we develop a fusion-based meshing strategy followed by mesh simplification and appearance model fitting. The compact meshes produced by our model can be rendered in real-time on mobile devices and achieve significantly higher view synthesis quality compared to existing mesh-based approaches.

Generating synthetic tabular data is critical in machine learning, especially when real data is limited or sensitive. Traditional generative models often face challenges due to the unique characteristics of tabular data, such as mixed data types and varied distributions, and require complex preprocessing or large pretrained models. In this paper, we introduce a novel, lossless binary transformation method that converts any tabular data into fixed-size binary representations, and a corresponding new generative model called Binary Diffusion, specifically designed for binary data. Binary Diffusion leverages the simplicity of XOR operations for noise addition and removal and employs binary cross-entropy loss for training. Our approach eliminates the need for extensive preprocessing, complex noise parameter tuning, and pretraining on large datasets. We evaluate our model on several popular tabular benchmark datasets, demonstrating that Binary Diffusion outperforms existing state-of-the-art models on Travel, Adult Income, and Diabetes datasets while being significantly smaller in size.

Ternary and binary neural networks enable multiplication-free computation and promise multiple orders of magnitude efficiency gains over full-precision networks if implemented on specialized hardware. However, since both the parameter and the output space are highly discretized, such networks have proven very difficult to optimize. The difficulties are compounded for the class of transformer text generation models due to the sensitivity of the attention operation to quantization and the noise-compounding effects of autoregressive decoding in the high-cardinality output space. We approach the problem with a mix of statistics-based quantization for the weights and elastic quantization of the activations and demonstrate the first ternary and binary transformer models on the downstream tasks of summarization and machine translation. Our ternary BART base achieves an R1 score of 41 on the CNN/DailyMail benchmark, which is merely 3.9 points behind the full model while being 16x more efficient. Our binary model, while less accurate, achieves a highly non-trivial score of 35.6. For machine translation, we achieved BLEU scores of 21.7 and 17.6 on the WMT16 En-Ro benchmark, compared with a full precision mBART model score of 26.8. We also compare our approach in the 8-bit activation setting, where our ternary and even binary weight models can match or outperform the best existing 8-bit weight models in the literature. Our code and models are available at: https://github.com/facebookresearch/Ternary_Binary_Transformer

Aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) to human preferences through preference optimization has been crucial but labor-intensive, necessitating for each prompt a comparison of both a chosen and a rejected text completion by evaluators. Recently, Kahneman-Tversky Optimization (KTO) has demonstrated that LLMs can be aligned using merely binary "thumbs-up" or "thumbs-down" signals on each prompt-completion pair. In this paper, we present theoretical foundations to explain the successful alignment achieved through these binary signals. Our analysis uncovers a new perspective: optimizing a binary classifier, whose logit is a reward, implicitly induces minimizing the Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) loss. In the process of this discovery, we identified two techniques for effective alignment: reward shift and underlying distribution matching. Consequently, we propose a new algorithm, Binary Classifier Optimization, that integrates the techniques. We validate our methodology in two settings: first, on a paired preference dataset, where our method performs on par with DPO and KTO; and second, on binary signal datasets simulating real-world conditions with divergent underlying distributions between thumbs-up and thumbs-down data. Our model consistently demonstrates effective and robust alignment across two base LLMs and three different binary signal datasets, showcasing the strength of our approach to learning from binary feedback.

Quantized neural networks employ reduced precision representations for both weights and activations. This quantization process significantly reduces the memory requirements and computational complexity of the network. Binary Neural Networks (BNNs) are the extreme quantization case, representing values with just one bit. Since the sign function is typically used to map real values to binary values, smooth approximations are introduced to mimic the gradients during error backpropagation. Thus, the mismatch between the forward and backward models corrupts the direction of the gradient, causing training inconsistency problems and performance degradation. In contrast to current BNN approaches, we propose to employ a binary periodic (BiPer) function during binarization. Specifically, we use a square wave for the forward pass to obtain the binary values and employ the trigonometric sine function with the same period of the square wave as a differentiable surrogate during the backward pass. We demonstrate that this approach can control the quantization error by using the frequency of the periodic function and improves network performance. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of BiPer in benchmark datasets and network architectures, with improvements of up to 1% and 0.69% with respect to state-of-the-art methods in the classification task over CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, respectively. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/edmav4/BiPer.

The Pleiades is the most prominent open star cluster visible from Earth and an important benchmark for simple stellar populations, unified by common origin, age, and distance. Binary stars are its essential ingredient, yet their contribution remains uncertain due to heavy observational biases. A resolved multiplicity survey was conducted for a magnitude-limited G < 15mag sample of 423 potential cluster members, including sources with poorly fitted astrometric solutions in Gaia DR3. Speckle interferometric observations at the 2.5 meter telescope of SAI MSU observatory were combined with Gaia data, enabling the identification of 61 resolved binary or multiple systems within the 0.04 - 10 arcsec (5 - 1350 au) separation range. With speckle observations, we discovered 21 components in 20 systems. The existence of a Merope (23 Tau) companion is confirmed after several previous unsuccessful attempts. We show that the Gaia multipeak fraction is a strong predictor of subarcsecond multiplicity, as all sources with ipd_frac_multi_peak > 4% are successfully resolved. We found that 10% of Pleiades stars have a companion with a mass ratio q > 0.5 within projected separation of 27 < s < 1350 au, and confirm a deficit of wide binaries with s > 300 au. An observed dearth of wide pairs with large mass ratio (q > 0.55) may imprint the transition from hard to soft binaries regime at the early stages of cluster evolution. The total binary fraction for q > 0.5 systems is extrapolated to be around 25%.

Binary black holes are one of the important sources for the TianQin gravitational wave project. Our research has revealed that, for TianQin, the signal-to-noise ratio of inspiral binary black holes can be computed analytically. This finding is expected to greatly simplify the estimation of detection capabilities for binary black holes. In this paper, we demonstrated the signal-to-noise ratio relationships from stellar-mass black holes to massive black holes. With the all-sky average condition, the signal-to-noise ratio for most binary black hole signals can be determined with a relative error of lesssim10%, with notable deviations only for chirp masses near 1000~M_odot. In contrast, the signal-to-noise ratio without the average includes an additional term, which we refer to as the response factor. Although this term is not easily calculated analytically, we provide a straightforward estimation method with an error margin of 1sigma within 2\%.

Binary code is pervasive, and binary analysis is a key task in reverse engineering, malware classification, and vulnerability discovery. Unfortunately, while there exist large corpuses of malicious binaries, obtaining high-quality corpuses of benign binaries for modern systems has proven challenging (e.g., due to licensing issues). Consequently, machine learning based pipelines for binary analysis utilize either costly commercial corpuses (e.g., VirusTotal) or open-source binaries (e.g., coreutils) available in limited quantities. To address these issues, we present Assemblage: an extensible cloud-based distributed system that crawls, configures, and builds Windows PE binaries to obtain high-quality binary corpuses suitable for training state-of-the-art models in binary analysis. We have run Assemblage on AWS over the past year, producing 890k Windows PE and 428k Linux ELF binaries across 29 configurations. Assemblage is designed to be both reproducible and extensible, enabling users to publish "recipes" for their datasets, and facilitating the extraction of a wide array of features. We evaluated Assemblage by using its data to train modern learning-based pipelines for compiler provenance and binary function similarity. Our results illustrate the practical need for robust corpuses of high-quality Windows PE binaries in training modern learning-based binary analyses. Assemblage can be downloaded from https://assemblage-dataset.net

Binary code analysis plays a pivotal role in various software security applications, such as software maintenance, malware detection, software vulnerability discovery, patch analysis, etc. However, unlike source code, understanding binary code is challenging for reverse engineers due to the absence of semantic information. Therefore, automated tools are needed to assist human players in interpreting binary code. In recent years, two groups of technologies have shown promising prospects: (1) Deep learning-based technologies have demonstrated competitive results in tasks related to binary code understanding, furthermore, (2) Large Language Models (LLMs) have been extensively pre-trained at the source-code level for tasks such as code understanding and generation. This makes participants wonder about the ability of LLMs in binary code understanding. In this work, we propose a benchmark to evaluate the effectiveness of LLMs in real-world reverse engineering scenarios. The benchmark covers two key binary code understanding tasks, including function name recovery and binary code summarization. We gain valuable insights into their capabilities and limitations through extensive evaluations of popular LLMs using our benchmark. Our evaluations reveal that existing LLMs can understand binary code to a certain extent, thereby improving the efficiency of binary code analysis. Our results highlight the great potential of the LLMs in advancing the field of binary code understanding.

Binary code representation learning has shown significant performance in binary analysis tasks. But existing solutions often have poor transferability, particularly in few-shot and zero-shot scenarios where few or no training samples are available for the tasks. To address this problem, we present CLAP (Contrastive Language-Assembly Pre-training), which employs natural language supervision to learn better representations of binary code (i.e., assembly code) and get better transferability. At the core, our approach boosts superior transfer learning capabilities by effectively aligning binary code with their semantics explanations (in natural language), resulting a model able to generate better embeddings for binary code. To enable this alignment training, we then propose an efficient dataset engine that could automatically generate a large and diverse dataset comprising of binary code and corresponding natural language explanations. We have generated 195 million pairs of binary code and explanations and trained a prototype of CLAP. The evaluations of CLAP across various downstream tasks in binary analysis all demonstrate exceptional performance. Notably, without any task-specific training, CLAP is often competitive with a fully supervised baseline, showing excellent transferability. We release our pre-trained model and code at https://github.com/Hustcw/CLAP.

Pretrained foundation models offer substantial benefits for a wide range of downstream tasks, which can be one of the most potential techniques to access artificial general intelligence. However, scaling up foundation transformers for maximal task-agnostic knowledge has brought about computational challenges, especially on resource-limited devices such as mobiles. This work proposes the first Binary Pretrained Foundation Transformer (BiPFT) for natural language understanding (NLU) tasks, which remarkably saves 56 times operations and 28 times memory. In contrast to previous task-specific binary transformers, BiPFT exhibits a substantial enhancement in the learning capabilities of binary neural networks (BNNs), promoting BNNs into the era of pre-training. Benefiting from extensive pretraining data, we further propose a data-driven binarization method. Specifically, we first analyze the binarization error in self-attention operations and derive the polynomials of binarization error. To simulate full-precision self-attention, we define binarization error as binarization residual polynomials, and then introduce low-rank estimators to model these polynomials. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of BiPFTs, surpassing task-specific baseline by 15.4% average performance on the GLUE benchmark. BiPFT also demonstrates improved robustness to hyperparameter changes, improved optimization efficiency, and reduced reliance on downstream distillation, which consequently generalize on various NLU tasks and simplify the downstream pipeline of BNNs. Our code and pretrained models are publicly available at https://github.com/Xingrun-Xing/BiPFT.

Retrieval augmentation addresses many critical problems in large language models such as hallucination, staleness, and privacy leaks. However, running retrieval-augmented language models (LMs) is slow and difficult to scale due to processing large amounts of retrieved text. We introduce binary token representations (BTR), which use 1-bit vectors to precompute every token in passages, significantly reducing computation during inference. Despite the potential loss of accuracy, our new calibration techniques and training objectives restore performance. Combined with offline and runtime compression, this only requires 127GB of disk space for encoding 3 billion tokens in Wikipedia. Our experiments show that on five knowledge-intensive NLP tasks, BTR accelerates state-of-the-art inference by up to 4x and reduces storage by over 100x while maintaining over 95% task performance.

Binary neural networks (BNNs) have been widely adopted to reduce the computational cost and memory storage on edge-computing devices by using one-bit representation for activations and weights. However, as neural networks become wider/deeper to improve accuracy and meet practical requirements, the computational burden remains a significant challenge even on the binary version. To address these issues, this paper proposes a novel method called Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) compression that learns to compress and accelerate BNNs. The proposed architecture leverages an observation from previous works that an output channel in a binary convolution can be computed using another output channel and XNOR operations with weights that differ from the weights of the reused channel. We first construct a fully connected graph with vertices corresponding to output channels, where the distance between two vertices is the number of different values between the weight sets used for these outputs. Then, the MST of the graph with the minimum depth is proposed to reorder output calculations, aiming to reduce computational cost and latency. Moreover, we propose a new learning algorithm to reduce the total MST distance during training. Experimental results on benchmark models demonstrate that our method achieves significant compression ratios with negligible accuracy drops, making it a promising approach for resource-constrained edge-computing devices.

In this paper, we show that a binary latent space can be explored for compact yet expressive image representations. We model the bi-directional mappings between an image and the corresponding latent binary representation by training an auto-encoder with a Bernoulli encoding distribution. On the one hand, the binary latent space provides a compact discrete image representation of which the distribution can be modeled more efficiently than pixels or continuous latent representations. On the other hand, we now represent each image patch as a binary vector instead of an index of a learned cookbook as in discrete image representations with vector quantization. In this way, we obtain binary latent representations that allow for better image quality and high-resolution image representations without any multi-stage hierarchy in the latent space. In this binary latent space, images can now be generated effectively using a binary latent diffusion model tailored specifically for modeling the prior over the binary image representations. We present both conditional and unconditional image generation experiments with multiple datasets, and show that the proposed method performs comparably to state-of-the-art methods while dramatically improving the sampling efficiency to as few as 16 steps without using any test-time acceleration. The proposed framework can also be seamlessly scaled to 1024 times 1024 high-resolution image generation without resorting to latent hierarchy or multi-stage refinements.

Binary Neural Network (BNN) represents convolution weights with 1-bit values, which enhances the efficiency of storage and computation. This paper is motivated by a previously revealed phenomenon that the binary kernels in successful BNNs are nearly power-law distributed: their values are mostly clustered into a small number of codewords. This phenomenon encourages us to compact typical BNNs and obtain further close performance through learning non-repetitive kernels within a binary kernel subspace. Specifically, we regard the binarization process as kernel grouping in terms of a binary codebook, and our task lies in learning to select a smaller subset of codewords from the full codebook. We then leverage the Gumbel-Sinkhorn technique to approximate the codeword selection process, and develop the Permutation Straight-Through Estimator (PSTE) that is able to not only optimize the selection process end-to-end but also maintain the non-repetitive occupancy of selected codewords. Experiments verify that our method reduces both the model size and bit-wise computational costs, and achieves accuracy improvements compared with state-of-the-art BNNs under comparable budgets.

Large-scale embedding-based retrieval (EBR) is the cornerstone of search-related industrial applications. Given a user query, the system of EBR aims to identify relevant information from a large corpus of documents that may be tens or hundreds of billions in size. The storage and computation turn out to be expensive and inefficient with massive documents and high concurrent queries, making it difficult to further scale up. To tackle the challenge, we propose a binary embedding-based retrieval (BEBR) engine equipped with a recurrent binarization algorithm that enables customized bits per dimension. Specifically, we compress the full-precision query and document embeddings, formulated as float vectors in general, into a composition of multiple binary vectors using a lightweight transformation model with residual multilayer perception (MLP) blocks. We can therefore tailor the number of bits for different applications to trade off accuracy loss and cost savings. Importantly, we enable task-agnostic efficient training of the binarization model using a new embedding-to-embedding strategy. We also exploit the compatible training of binary embeddings so that the BEBR engine can support indexing among multiple embedding versions within a unified system. To further realize efficient search, we propose Symmetric Distance Calculation (SDC) to achieve lower response time than Hamming codes. We successfully employed the introduced BEBR to Tencent products, including Sogou, Tencent Video, QQ World, etc. The binarization algorithm can be seamlessly generalized to various tasks with multiple modalities. Extensive experiments on offline benchmarks and online A/B tests demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our method, significantly saving 30%~50% index costs with almost no loss of accuracy at the system level.

Binary Neural Networks (BNNs) have emerged as a promising solution for reducing the memory footprint and compute costs of deep neural networks. BNNs, on the other hand, suffer from information loss because binary activations are limited to only two values, resulting in reduced accuracy. To improve the accuracy, previous studies have attempted to control the distribution of binary activation by manually shifting the threshold of the activation function or making the shift amount trainable. During the process, they usually depended on statistical information computed from a batch. We argue that using statistical data from a batch fails to capture the crucial information for each input instance in BNN computations, and the differences between statistical information computed from each instance need to be considered when determining the binary activation threshold of each instance. Based on the concept, we propose the Binary Neural Network with INSTAnce-aware threshold (INSTA-BNN), which decides the activation threshold value considering the difference between statistical data computed from a batch and each instance. The proposed INSTA-BNN outperforms the baseline by 2.5% and 2.3% on the ImageNet classification task with comparable computing cost, achieving 68.0% and 71.7% top-1 accuracy on ResNet-18 and MobileNetV1 based models, respectively.

The correct use of Dutch pronouns 'die' and 'dat' is a stumbling block for both native and non-native speakers of Dutch due to the multiplicity of syntactic functions and the dependency on the antecedent's gender and number. Drawing on previous research conducted on neural context-dependent dt-mistake correction models (Heyman et al. 2018), this study constructs the first neural network model for Dutch demonstrative and relative pronoun resolution that specifically focuses on the correction and part-of-speech prediction of these two pronouns. Two separate datasets are built with sentences obtained from, respectively, the Dutch Europarl corpus (Koehn 2015) - which contains the proceedings of the European Parliament from 1996 to the present - and the SoNaR corpus (Oostdijk et al. 2013) - which contains Dutch texts from a variety of domains such as newspapers, blogs and legal texts. Firstly, a binary classification model solely predicts the correct 'die' or 'dat'. The classifier with a bidirectional long short-term memory architecture achieves 84.56% accuracy. Secondly, a multitask classification model simultaneously predicts the correct 'die' or 'dat' and its part-of-speech tag. The model containing a combination of a sentence and context encoder with both a bidirectional long short-term memory architecture results in 88.63% accuracy for die/dat prediction and 87.73% accuracy for part-of-speech prediction. More evenly-balanced data, larger word embeddings, an extra bidirectional long short-term memory layer and integrated part-of-speech knowledge positively affects die/dat prediction performance, while a context encoder architecture raises part-of-speech prediction performance. This study shows promising results and can serve as a starting point for future research on machine learning models for Dutch anaphora resolution.

We propose two efficient approximations to standard convolutional neural networks: Binary-Weight-Networks and XNOR-Networks. In Binary-Weight-Networks, the filters are approximated with binary values resulting in 32x memory saving. In XNOR-Networks, both the filters and the input to convolutional layers are binary. XNOR-Networks approximate convolutions using primarily binary operations. This results in 58x faster convolutional operations and 32x memory savings. XNOR-Nets offer the possibility of running state-of-the-art networks on CPUs (rather than GPUs) in real-time. Our binary networks are simple, accurate, efficient, and work on challenging visual tasks. We evaluate our approach on the ImageNet classification task. The classification accuracy with a Binary-Weight-Network version of AlexNet is only 2.9% less than the full-precision AlexNet (in top-1 measure). We compare our method with recent network binarization methods, BinaryConnect and BinaryNets, and outperform these methods by large margins on ImageNet, more than 16% in top-1 accuracy.

Deep Neural Networks (DNN) have achieved state-of-the-art results in a wide range of tasks, with the best results obtained with large training sets and large models. In the past, GPUs enabled these breakthroughs because of their greater computational speed. In the future, faster computation at both training and test time is likely to be crucial for further progress and for consumer applications on low-power devices. As a result, there is much interest in research and development of dedicated hardware for Deep Learning (DL). Binary weights, i.e., weights which are constrained to only two possible values (e.g. -1 or 1), would bring great benefits to specialized DL hardware by replacing many multiply-accumulate operations by simple accumulations, as multipliers are the most space and power-hungry components of the digital implementation of neural networks. We introduce BinaryConnect, a method which consists in training a DNN with binary weights during the forward and backward propagations, while retaining precision of the stored weights in which gradients are accumulated. Like other dropout schemes, we show that BinaryConnect acts as regularizer and we obtain near state-of-the-art results with BinaryConnect on the permutation-invariant MNIST, CIFAR-10 and SVHN.

In this paper, we describe a design of a mixed signal circuit for a binary neuron (a.k.a perceptron, threshold logic gate) and a methodology for automatically embedding such cells in ASICs. The binary neuron, referred to as an FTL (flash threshold logic) uses floating gate or flash transistors whose threshold voltages serve as a proxy for the weights of the neuron. Algorithms for mapping the weights to the flash transistor threshold voltages are presented. The threshold voltages are determined to maximize both the robustness of the cell and its speed. The performance, power, and area of a single FTL cell are shown to be significantly smaller (79.4%), consume less power (61.6%), and operate faster (40.3%) compared to conventional CMOS logic equivalents. Also included are the architecture and the algorithms to program the flash devices of an FTL. The FTL cells are implemented as standard cells, and are designed to allow commercial synthesis and P&R tools to automatically use them in synthesis of ASICs. Substantial reductions in area and power without sacrificing performance are demonstrated on several ASIC benchmarks by the automatic embedding of FTL cells. The paper also demonstrates how FTL cells can be used for fixing timing errors after fabrication.

Photometric and spectroscopic observations of GV Leo were performed from 2017 to 2024. The light curves show a flat bottom at the primary eclipse and the conventional O'Connell effect. The echelle spectra reveal that the effective temperature and rotation velocity of the more massive secondary are T_{rm eff,2} = 5220pm120 K and v_2 sin i = 223pm40 km s^{-1}, respectively. Our binary modeling indicates that the program target is a W-subclass contact binary with a mass ratio of q = 5.48, an inclination angle of i = 81^circ.68, a temperature difference of (T_{rm eff,1}-T_{rm eff,2}) = 154 K, and a filling factor of f = 36 \%. The light asymmetries were reasonably modeled by a dark starspot on the secondary's photosphere. Including our 26 minimum epochs, 84 times of minimum light were used to investigate the orbital period of the system. We found that the eclipse times of GV Leo have varied by a sinusoid with a period of 14.9 years and a semi-amplitude of 0.0076 days superimposed on a downward parabola. The periodic modulation is interpreted as a light time effect produced by an unseen outer tertiary with a minimum mass of 0.26 M_odot, while the parabolic component is thought to be a combination of mass transfer (secondary to primary) and angular momentum loss driven by magnetic braking. The circumbinary tertiary would have caused the eclipsing pair of GV Leo to evolve into its current short-period contact state by removing angular momentum from the primordial widish binary.

Red supergiants (RSGs), as the descendants of OB-type stars and the progenitors of supernovae, provide crucial insights into the evolution of massive stars, particularly in binary systems. Previous studies show that the binary fraction of RSGs (approx 15% - 40%) is significantly lower than that of their predecessors (approx 50% - 70%). In this work, we investigate the binary fraction of RSGs with the recently selected largest samples of 4695 and 2097 RSGs in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), respectively. The binary system with a hot companion (O-, B- and A-type star) is identified by detecting the ultraviolet (UV) excess in the observed spectral energy distribution (SED) ranging from ultraviolet to mid-infrared after subtracting the model SED of RSG since RSGs are very weak in the UV band. It is found that the lower limit of binarity is 30.2% pm 0.7% and 32.2% pm 1% in the LMC and SMC, respectively. If the sample is limited to luminous RSGs with log L/L_{odot} > 4.0, the binary fraction becomes 26.6% pm 1.1% and 26.4% pm 1.7% in the LMC and SMC, respectively. The derived binary fraction is valid in the range of sim 2.3 < log P / [d] < sim 8. Our study suggests that roughly one-third of massive stars host a third companion within sim 30,000 AU. In addition, 15 RSGs are also identified as binary via HST/STIS spectra, and a handful of the binaries identified by the SED fitting are confirmed by their light curve and radial velocity dispersion. The stellar parameters of the companions, i.e. T_{eff}, R, L and log g, are calculated by model fitting.

Social networks have a vast range of applications with graphs. The available benchmark datasets are citation, co-occurrence, e-commerce networks, etc, with classes ranging from 3 to 15. However, there is no benchmark classification social network dataset for graph machine learning. This paper fills the gap and presents the Binary Classification Social Network Dataset (BiSND), designed for graph machine learning applications to predict binary classes. We present the BiSND in tabular and graph formats to verify its robustness across classical and advanced machine learning. We employ a diverse set of classifiers, including four traditional machine learning algorithms (Decision Trees, K-Nearest Neighbour, Random Forest, XGBoost), one Deep Neural Network (multi-layer perceptrons), one Graph Neural Network (Graph Convolutional Network), and three state-of-the-art Graph Contrastive Learning methods (BGRL, GRACE, DAENS). Our findings reveal that BiSND is suitable for classification tasks, with F1-scores ranging from 67.66 to 70.15, indicating promising avenues for future enhancements.

The rapid development of large language models (LLMs), like ChatGPT, has resulted in the widespread presence of LLM-generated content on social media platforms, raising concerns about misinformation, data biases, and privacy violations, which can undermine trust in online discourse. While detecting LLM-generated content is crucial for mitigating these risks, current methods often focus on binary classification, failing to address the complexities of real-world scenarios like human-LLM collaboration. To move beyond binary classification and address these challenges, we propose a new paradigm for detecting LLM-generated content. This approach introduces two novel tasks: LLM Role Recognition (LLM-RR), a multi-class classification task that identifies specific roles of LLM in content generation, and LLM Influence Measurement (LLM-IM), a regression task that quantifies the extent of LLM involvement in content creation. To support these tasks, we propose LLMDetect, a benchmark designed to evaluate detectors' performance on these new tasks. LLMDetect includes the Hybrid News Detection Corpus (HNDC) for training detectors, as well as DetectEval, a comprehensive evaluation suite that considers five distinct cross-context variations and two multi-intensity variations within the same LLM role. This allows for a thorough assessment of detectors' generalization and robustness across diverse contexts. Our empirical validation of 10 baseline detection methods demonstrates that fine-tuned PLM-based models consistently outperform others on both tasks, while advanced LLMs face challenges in accurately detecting their own generated content. Our experimental results and analysis offer insights for developing more effective detection models for LLM-generated content. This research enhances the understanding of LLM-generated content and establishes a foundation for more nuanced detection methodologies.

Collaborative filtering generates recommendations based on user-item similarities through rating data, which may involve numerous unrated items. To predict scores for unrated items, matrix factorization techniques, such as nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF), are often employed to predict scores for unrated items. Nonnegative/binary matrix factorization (NBMF), which is an extension of NMF, approximates a nonnegative matrix as the product of nonnegative and binary matrices. Previous studies have employed NBMF for image analysis where the data were dense. In this paper, we propose a modified NBMF algorithm that can be applied to collaborative filtering where data are sparse. In the modified method, unrated elements in a rating matrix are masked, which improves the collaborative filtering performance. Utilizing a low-latency Ising machine in NBMF is advantageous in terms of the computation time, making the proposed method beneficial.

Name-based gender prediction has traditionally categorized individuals as either female or male based on their names, using a binary classification system. That binary approach can be problematic in the cases of gender-neutral names that do not align with any one gender, among other reasons. Relying solely on binary gender categories without recognizing gender-neutral names can reduce the inclusiveness of gender prediction tasks. We introduce an additional gender category, i.e., "neutral", to study and address potential gender biases in Large Language Models (LLMs). We evaluate the performance of several foundational and large language models in predicting gender based on first names only. Additionally, we investigate the impact of adding birth years to enhance the accuracy of gender prediction, accounting for shifting associations between names and genders over time. Our findings indicate that most LLMs identify male and female names with high accuracy (over 80%) but struggle with gender-neutral names (under 40%), and the accuracy of gender prediction is higher for English-based first names than non-English names. The experimental results show that incorporating the birth year does not improve the overall accuracy of gender prediction, especially for names with evolving gender associations. We recommend using caution when applying LLMs for gender identification in downstream tasks, particularly when dealing with non-binary gender labels.

The binary sum-of-digits function s returns the number of ones in the binary expansion of a nonnegative integer. Cusick's Hamming weight conjecture states that, for all integers tgeq 0, the set of nonnegative integers n such that s(n+t)geq s(n) has asymptotic density strictly larger than 1/2. We are concerned with the block-additive function r returning the number of (overlapping) occurrences of the block 11 in the binary expansion of n. The main result of this paper is a central limit-type theorem for the difference r(n+t)-r(n): the corresponding probability function is uniformly close to a Gaussian, where the uniform error tends to 0 as the number of blocks of ones in the binary expansion of t tends to infty.

Deep hashing has been widely applied to large-scale image retrieval tasks owing to efficient computation and low storage cost by encoding high-dimensional image data into binary codes. Since binary codes do not contain as much information as float features, the essence of binary encoding is preserving the main context to guarantee retrieval quality. However, the existing hashing methods have great limitations on suppressing redundant background information and accurately encoding from Euclidean space to Hamming space by a simple sign function. In order to solve these problems, a Cross-Scale Context Extracted Hashing Network (CSCE-Net) is proposed in this paper. Firstly, we design a two-branch framework to capture fine-grained local information while maintaining high-level global semantic information. Besides, Attention guided Information Extraction module (AIE) is introduced between two branches, which suppresses areas of low context information cooperated with global sliding windows. Unlike previous methods, our CSCE-Net learns a content-related Dynamic Sign Function (DSF) to replace the original simple sign function. Therefore, the proposed CSCE-Net is context-sensitive and able to perform well on accurate image binary encoding. We further demonstrate that our CSCE-Net is superior to the existing hashing methods, which improves retrieval performance on standard benchmarks.

State-of-the-art deep face recognition methods are mostly trained with a softmax-based multi-class classification framework. Despite being popular and effective, these methods still have a few shortcomings that limit empirical performance. In this paper, we start by identifying the discrepancy between training and evaluation in the existing multi-class classification framework and then discuss the potential limitations caused by the "competitive" nature of softmax normalization. Motivated by these limitations, we propose a novel binary classification training framework, termed SphereFace2. In contrast to existing methods, SphereFace2 circumvents the softmax normalization, as well as the corresponding closed-set assumption. This effectively bridges the gap between training and evaluation, enabling the representations to be improved individually by each binary classification task. Besides designing a specific well-performing loss function, we summarize a few general principles for this "one-vs-all" binary classification framework so that it can outperform current competitive methods. Our experiments on popular benchmarks demonstrate that SphereFace2 can consistently outperform state-of-the-art deep face recognition methods. The code has been made publicly available.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated remarkable success in mathematical reasoning. Despite progress in methods like chain-of-thought prompting and self-consistency sampling, these advances often focus on final correctness without ensuring that the underlying reasoning process is coherent and reliable. This paper introduces Step-KTO, a training framework that combines process-level and outcome-level binary feedback to guide LLMs toward more trustworthy reasoning trajectories. By providing binary evaluations for both the intermediate reasoning steps and the final answer, Step-KTO encourages the model to adhere to logical progressions rather than relying on superficial shortcuts. Our experiments on challenging mathematical benchmarks show that Step-KTO significantly improves both final answer accuracy and the quality of intermediate reasoning steps. For example, on the MATH-500 dataset, Step-KTO achieves a notable improvement in Pass@1 accuracy over strong baselines. These results highlight the promise of integrating stepwise process feedback into LLM training, paving the way toward more interpretable and dependable reasoning capabilities.

We introduce BiGR, a novel conditional image generation model using compact binary latent codes for generative training, focusing on enhancing both generation and representation capabilities. BiGR is the first conditional generative model that unifies generation and discrimination within the same framework. BiGR features a binary tokenizer, a masked modeling mechanism, and a binary transcoder for binary code prediction. Additionally, we introduce a novel entropy-ordered sampling method to enable efficient image generation. Extensive experiments validate BiGR's superior performance in generation quality, as measured by FID-50k, and representation capabilities, as evidenced by linear-probe accuracy. Moreover, BiGR showcases zero-shot generalization across various vision tasks, enabling applications such as image inpainting, outpainting, editing, interpolation, and enrichment, without the need for structural modifications. Our findings suggest that BiGR unifies generative and discriminative tasks effectively, paving the way for further advancements in the field.

Large language models follow a lineage of many NLP applications that were directly inspired by distributional semantics, but do not seem to be closely related to it anymore. In this paper, we propose to employ the distributional theory of meaning once again. Using Independent Component Analysis to overcome some of its challenging aspects, we show that large language models represent semantic features in their hidden states.

Human Activity Recognition (HAR) is a relevant inference task in many mobile applications. State-of-the-art HAR at the edge is typically achieved with lightweight machine learning models such as decision trees and Random Forests (RFs), whereas deep learning is less common due to its high computational complexity. In this work, we propose a novel implementation of HAR based on deep neural networks, and precisely on Binary Neural Networks (BNNs), targeting low-power general purpose processors with a RISC-V instruction set. BNNs yield very small memory footprints and low inference complexity, thanks to the replacement of arithmetic operations with bit-wise ones. However, existing BNN implementations on general purpose processors impose constraints tailored to complex computer vision tasks, which result in over-parametrized models for simpler problems like HAR. Therefore, we also introduce a new BNN inference library, which targets ultra-compact models explicitly. With experiments on a single-core RISC-V processor, we show that BNNs trained on two HAR datasets obtain higher classification accuracy compared to a state-of-the-art baseline based on RFs. Furthermore, our BNN reaches the same accuracy of a RF with either less memory (up to 91%) or more energy-efficiency (up to 70%), depending on the complexity of the features extracted by the RF.

We present microlux, which is a Jax-based code that can compute the binary microlensing light curve and its derivatives both efficiently and accurately. The key feature of microlux is the implementation of a modified version of the adaptive sampling algorithm that was originally proposed by V. Bozza to account for the finite-source effect most efficiently. The efficiency and accuracy of microlux have been verified across the relevant parameter space for binary microlensing. As a differentiable code, microlux makes it possible to apply gradient-based algorithms to the search and posterior estimation of the microlensing modeling. As an example, we use microlux to model a real microlensing event and infer the model posterior via both Fisher information matrix and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, neither of which would have been possible without the access to accurate model gradients.

The fate of the binary neutron star (NS) merger remnants hinges sensitively upon the NS equation of state and the threshold mass, M_{rm ls}, that separates a long-lived from a short-lived NS remnant. The nature of the electromagnetic counterparts is also influenced by the remnant type, particularly in determining whether a gamma-ray burst from a compact binary merger (cbGRB) is of short or long duration. We propose a novel approach to probe the threshold mass by linking it to the estimated observed ratio of long to short cbGRBs. We find that current observations broadly favour a relatively high value for this transition, M_{rm ls}simeq 1.3 M_{rm TOV}, for which M_{rm TOV} lesssim 2.6,M_odot , consistent with numerical simulations, as also shown here. Our results disfavour nuclear physics scenarios that would lead to catastrophic pressure loss at a few times nuclear density and temperatures of tens of MeV, leading to a rapid gravitational collapse of binaries with total mass M lesssim 1.3 M_{rm TOV}. Future individual gravitational wave events with on-axis cbGRBs can further bound M_{rm ls}.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed via public-facing interfaces to interact with millions of users, each with diverse preferences. Despite this, preference tuning of LLMs predominantly relies on reward models trained using binary judgments where annotators select the preferred choice out of pairs of model outputs. In this work, we argue that this reliance on binary choices does not capture the broader, aggregate preferences of the target user in real-world tasks. We propose a taxonomy that identifies two dimensions of subjectivity where different users disagree on the preferred output-namely, the Plurality of Responses to Prompts, where prompts allow for multiple correct answers, and the Indistinguishability of Responses, where candidate outputs are paraphrases of each other. We show that reward models correlate weakly with user preferences in these cases. As a first step to address this issue, we introduce a simple yet effective method that augments existing binary preference datasets with synthetic preference judgments to estimate potential user disagreement. Incorporating these via a margin term as a form of regularization during model training yields predictions that better align with the aggregate user preferences.

Real world deployments of word alignment are almost certain to cover both high and low resource languages. However, the state-of-the-art for this task recommends a different model class depending on the availability of gold alignment training data for a particular language pair. We propose BinaryAlign, a novel word alignment technique based on binary sequence labeling that outperforms existing approaches in both scenarios, offering a unifying approach to the task. Additionally, we vary the specific choice of multilingual foundation model, perform stratified error analysis over alignment error type, and explore the performance of BinaryAlign on non-English language pairs. We make our source code publicly available.

The inspiral, merger, and ringdown of Massive Black Hole Binaries (MBHBs) is one the main sources of Gravitational Waves (GWs) for the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), an ESA-led mission in the implementation phase. It is expected that LISA will detect these systems throughout the entire observable universe. Robust and efficient data analysis algorithms are necessary to detect and estimate physical parameters for these systems. In this work, we explore the application of Sequential Neural Likelihood, a simulation-based inference algorithm, to detect and characterize MBHB GW signals in synthetic LISA data. We describe in detail the different elements of the method, their performance and possible alternatives that can be used to enhance the performance. Instead of sampling from the conventional likelihood function, which requires a forward simulation for each evaluation, this method constructs a surrogate likelihood that is ultimately described by a neural network trained from a dataset of simulations of the MBHB signals and noise. One important advantage of this method is that, given that the likelihood is independent of the priors, we can iteratively train models that target specific observations in a fraction of the time and computational cost that other traditional and machine learning-based strategies would require. Because of the iterative nature of the method, we are able to train models to obtain qualitatively similar posteriors with less than 2\% of the simulator calls that Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods would require. We compare these posteriors with those obtained from Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques and discuss the differences that appear, in particular in relation with the important role that data compression has in the modular implementation of the method that we present. We also discuss different strategies to improve the performance of the algorithms.

The landscape of information retrieval has broadened from search services to a critical component in various advanced applications, where indexing efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and freshness are increasingly important yet remain less explored. To address these demands, we introduce Semi-parametric Vocabulary Disentangled Retrieval (SVDR). SVDR is a novel semi-parametric retrieval framework that supports two types of indexes: an embedding-based index for high effectiveness, akin to existing neural retrieval methods; and a binary token index that allows for quick and cost-effective setup, resembling traditional term-based retrieval. In our evaluation on three open-domain question answering benchmarks with the entire Wikipedia as the retrieval corpus, SVDR consistently demonstrates superiority. It achieves a 3% higher top-1 retrieval accuracy compared to the dense retriever DPR when using an embedding-based index and an 9% higher top-1 accuracy compared to BM25 when using a binary token index. Specifically, the adoption of a binary token index reduces index preparation time from 30 GPU hours to just 2 CPU hours and storage size from 31 GB to 2 GB, achieving a 90% reduction compared to an embedding-based index.

Decompilation aims to restore compiled code to human-readable source code, but struggles with details like names and structure. Large language models (LLMs) show promise for programming tasks, motivating their application to decompilation. However, there does not exist any open-source LLM for decompilation. Moreover, existing decompilation evaluation systems mainly consider token-level accuracy and largely ignore code executability, which is the most important feature of any program. Therefore, we release the first open-access decompilation LLMs ranging from 1B to 33B pre-trained on 4 billion tokens of C source code and the corresponding assembly code. The open-source LLMs can serve as baselines for further development in the field. To ensure practical program evaluation, we introduce Decompile-Eval, the first dataset that considers re-compilability and re-executability for decompilation. The benchmark emphasizes the importance of evaluating the decompilation model from the perspective of program semantics. Experiments indicate that our LLM4Decompile has demonstrated the capability to accurately decompile 21% of the assembly code, which achieves a 50% improvement over GPT-4. Our code, dataset, and models are released at https://github.com/albertan017/LLM4Decompile

We revisit the noisy binary search model of Karp and Kleinberg, in which we have n coins with unknown probabilities p_i that we can flip. The coins are sorted by increasing p_i, and we would like to find where the probability crosses (to within varepsilon) of a target value tau. This generalized the fixed-noise model of Burnashev and Zigangirov , in which p_i = 1{2} pm varepsilon, to a setting where coins near the target may be indistinguishable from it. Karp and Kleinberg showed that Theta(1{varepsilon^2} log n) samples are necessary and sufficient for this task. We produce a practical algorithm by solving two theoretical challenges: high-probability behavior and sharp constants. We give an algorithm that succeeds with probability 1-delta from \[ 1{C_{\tau, \varepsilon}} \cdot \left(\lg n + O(\log^{2/3} n \log^{1/3} 1{\delta} + \log 1{\delta})\right) \] samples, where C_{tau, varepsilon} is the optimal such constant achievable. For delta > n^{-o(1)} this is within 1 + o(1) of optimal, and for delta ll 1 it is the first bound within constant factors of optimal.

Unsupervised commonsense reasoning (UCR) is becoming increasingly popular as the construction of commonsense reasoning datasets is expensive, and they are inevitably limited in their scope. A popular approach to UCR is to fine-tune language models with external knowledge (e.g., knowledge graphs), but this usually requires a large number of training examples. In this paper, we propose to transform the downstream multiple choice question answering task into a simpler binary classification task by ranking all candidate answers according to their reasonableness. To this end, for training the model, we convert the knowledge graph triples into reasonable and unreasonable texts. Extensive experimental results show the effectiveness of our approach on various multiple choice question answering benchmarks. Furthermore, compared with existing UCR approaches using KGs, ours is less data hungry. Our code is available at https://github.com/probe2/BUCA.

Model binarization can significantly compress model size, reduce energy consumption, and accelerate inference through efficient bit-wise operations. Although binarizing convolutional neural networks have been extensively studied, there is little work on exploring binarization on vision Transformers which underpin most recent breakthroughs in visual recognition. To this end, we propose to solve two fundamental challenges to push the horizon of Binary Vision Transformers (BiViT). First, the traditional binary method does not take the long-tailed distribution of softmax attention into consideration, bringing large binarization errors in the attention module. To solve this, we propose Softmax-aware Binarization, which dynamically adapts to the data distribution and reduces the error caused by binarization. Second, to better exploit the information of the pretrained model and restore accuracy, we propose a Cross-layer Binarization scheme and introduce learnable channel-wise scaling factors for weight binarization. The former decouples the binarization of self-attention and MLP to avoid mutual interference while the latter enhances the representation capacity of binarized models. Overall, our method performs favorably against state-of-the-arts by 19.8% on the TinyImageNet dataset. On ImageNet, BiViT achieves a competitive 70.8% Top-1 accuracy over Swin-T model, outperforming the existing SOTA methods by a clear margin.

Polygonal meshes are ubiquitous, but have only played a relatively minor role in the deep learning revolution. State-of-the-art neural generative models for 3D shapes learn implicit functions and generate meshes via expensive iso-surfacing. We overcome these challenges by employing a classical spatial data structure from computer graphics, Binary Space Partitioning (BSP), to facilitate 3D learning. The core operation of BSP involves recursive subdivision of 3D space to obtain convex sets. By exploiting this property, we devise BSP-Net, a network that learns to represent a 3D shape via convex decomposition without supervision. The network is trained to reconstruct a shape using a set of convexes obtained from a BSP-tree built over a set of planes, where the planes and convexes are both defined by learned network weights. BSP-Net directly outputs polygonal meshes from the inferred convexes. The generated meshes are watertight, compact (i.e., low-poly), and well suited to represent sharp geometry. We show that the reconstruction quality by BSP-Net is competitive with those from state-of-the-art methods while using much fewer primitives. We also explore variations to BSP-Net including using a more generic decoder for reconstruction, more general primitives than planes, as well as training a generative model with variational auto-encoders. Code is available at https://github.com/czq142857/BSP-NET-original.

Face recognition has evolved as a prominent biometric authentication modality. However, vulnerability to presentation attacks curtails its reliable deployment. Automatic detection of presentation attacks is essential for secure use of face recognition technology in unattended scenarios. In this work, we introduce a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) based framework for presentation attack detection, with deep pixel-wise supervision. The framework uses only frame level information making it suitable for deployment in smart devices with minimal computational and time overhead. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in public datasets for both intra as well as cross-dataset experiments. The proposed approach achieves an HTER of 0% in Replay Mobile dataset and an ACER of 0.42% in Protocol-1 of OULU dataset outperforming state of the art methods.

We present DeepCABAC, a novel context-adaptive binary arithmetic coder for compressing deep neural networks. It quantizes each weight parameter by minimizing a weighted rate-distortion function, which implicitly takes the impact of quantization on to the accuracy of the network into account. Subsequently, it compresses the quantized values into a bitstream representation with minimal redundancies. We show that DeepCABAC is able to reach very high compression ratios across a wide set of different network architectures and datasets. For instance, we are able to compress by x63.6 the VGG16 ImageNet model with no loss of accuracy, thus being able to represent the entire network with merely 8.7MB.

We present a new approach for mitigating unfairness in learned classifiers. In particular, we focus on binary classification tasks over individuals from two populations, where, as our criterion for fairness, we wish to achieve similar false positive rates in both populations, and similar false negative rates in both populations. As a proof of concept, we implement our approach and empirically evaluate its ability to achieve both fairness and accuracy, using datasets from the fields of criminal risk assessment, credit, lending, and college admissions.

Memory-safety bugs introduce critical software-security issues. Rust provides memory-safe mechanisms to avoid memory-safety bugs in programming, while still allowing unsafe escape hatches via unsafe code. However, the unsafe code that enhances the usability of Rust provides clear spots for finding memory-safety bugs in Rust source code. In this paper, we claim that these unsafe spots can still be identifiable in Rust binary code via machine learning and be leveraged for finding memory-safety bugs. To support our claim, we propose the tool textttrustspot, that enables reverse engineering to learn an unsafe classifier that proposes a list of functions in Rust binaries for downstream analysis. We empirically show that the function proposals by textttrustspot can recall 92.92% of memory-safety bugs, while it covers only 16.79% of the entire binary code. As an application, we demonstrate that the function proposals are used in targeted fuzzing on Rust packages, which contribute to reducing the fuzzing time compared to non-targeted fuzzing.

The ability of an architecture to realize permutations is quite fundamental. For example, Large Language Models need to be able to correctly copy (and perhaps rearrange) parts of the input prompt into the output. Classical universal approximation theorems guarantee the existence of parameter configurations that solve this task but offer no insights into whether gradient-based algorithms can find them. In this paper, we address this gap by focusing on two-layer fully connected feed-forward neural networks and the task of learning permutations on nonzero binary inputs. We show that in the infinite width Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime, an ensemble of such networks independently trained with gradient descent on only the k standard basis vectors out of 2^k - 1 possible inputs successfully learns any fixed permutation of length k with arbitrarily high probability. By analyzing the exact training dynamics, we prove that the network's output converges to a Gaussian process whose mean captures the ground truth permutation via sign-based features. We then demonstrate how averaging these runs (an "ensemble" method) and applying a simple rounding step yields an arbitrarily accurate prediction on any possible input unseen during training. Notably, the number of models needed to achieve exact learning with high probability (which we refer to as ensemble complexity) exhibits a linearithmic dependence on the input size k for a single test input and a quadratic dependence when considering all test inputs simultaneously.

Vulnerability prediction is valuable in identifying security issues more efficiently, even though it requires the source code of the target software system, which is a restrictive hypothesis. This paper presents an experimental study to predict vulnerabilities in binary code without source code or complex representations of the binary, leveraging the pivotal idea of decompiling the binary file through neural decompilation and predicting vulnerabilities through deep learning on the decompiled source code. The results outperform the state-of-the-art in both neural decompilation and vulnerability prediction, showing that it is possible to identify vulnerable programs with this approach concerning bi-class (vulnerable/non-vulnerable) and multi-class (type of vulnerability) analysis.

Quantifying the uncertainty of predictions made by large language models (LLMs) in binary text classification tasks remains a challenge. Calibration, in the context of LLMs, refers to the alignment between the model's predicted probabilities and the actual correctness of its predictions. A well-calibrated model should produce probabilities that accurately reflect the likelihood of its predictions being correct. We propose a novel approach that utilizes the inductive Venn--Abers predictor (IVAP) to calibrate the probabilities associated with the output tokens corresponding to the binary labels. Our experiments on the BoolQ dataset using the Llama 2 model demonstrate that IVAP consistently outperforms the commonly used temperature scaling method for various label token choices, achieving well-calibrated probabilities while maintaining high predictive quality. Our findings contribute to the understanding of calibration techniques for LLMs and provide a practical solution for obtaining reliable uncertainty estimates in binary question answering tasks, enhancing the interpretability and trustworthiness of LLM predictions.

We propose a new transformer-based image and video tokenizer with Binary Spherical Quantization (BSQ). BSQ projects the high-dimensional visual embedding to a lower-dimensional hypersphere and then applies binary quantization. BSQ is (1) parameter-efficient without an explicit codebook, (2) scalable to arbitrary token dimensions, and (3) compact: compressing visual data by up to 100times with minimal distortion. Our tokenizer uses a transformer encoder and decoder with simple block-wise causal masking to support variable-length videos as input. The resulting BSQ-ViT achieves state-of-the-art visual reconstruction quality on image and video reconstruction benchmarks with 2.4times throughput compared to the best prior methods. Furthermore, by learning an autoregressive prior for adaptive arithmetic coding, BSQ-ViT achieves comparable results on video compression with state-of-the-art video compression standards. BSQ-ViT also enables masked language models to achieve competitive image synthesis quality to GAN- and diffusion-based methods.

We report long baseline interferometric observations with the CHARA Array that resolve six previously known double-lined spectroscopic binary systems in the Hyades cluster, with orbital periods ranging from 3 to 358 days: HD 27483, HD 283882, HD 26874, HD 27149, HD 30676, and HD 28545. We combine those observations with new and existing radial-velocity measurements, to infer the dynamical masses for the components as well as the orbital parallaxes. For most stars the masses are determined to better than 1%. Our work significantly increases the number of systems with mass determinations in the cluster. We find that while current models of stellar evolution for the age and metallicity of the Hyades are able to reproduce the overall shape of the empirical mass-luminosity relation, they overestimate the V-band fluxes by about 0.1 mag between 0.5 and 1.4 M_{odot}. The disagreement is smaller in H, and near zero in K, and depends somewhat on the model. We also make use of the TESS light curves to estimate rotation periods for our targets, and detect numerous flares in one of them (HD 283882), estimating an average flaring rate of 0.44 events per day.

We introduce the Glauber Generative Model (GGM), a new class of discrete diffusion models, to obtain new samples from a distribution given samples from a discrete space. GGM deploys a discrete Markov chain called the heat bath dynamics (or the Glauber dynamics) to denoise a sequence of noisy tokens to a sample from a joint distribution of discrete tokens. Our novel conceptual framework provides an exact reduction of the task of learning the denoising Markov chain to solving a class of binary classification tasks. More specifically, the model learns to classify a given token in a noisy sequence as signal or noise. In contrast, prior works on discrete diffusion models either solve regression problems to learn importance ratios, or minimize loss functions given by variational approximations. We apply GGM to language modeling and image generation, where images are discretized using image tokenizers like VQGANs. We show that it outperforms existing discrete diffusion models in language generation, and demonstrates strong performance for image generation without using dataset-specific image tokenizers. We also show that our model is capable of performing well in zero-shot control settings like text and image infilling.

Large language models (LLMs) trained on huge corpora of text datasets demonstrate intriguing capabilities, achieving state-of-the-art performance on tasks they were not explicitly trained for. The precise nature of LLM capabilities is often mysterious, and different prompts can elicit different capabilities through in-context learning. We propose a framework that enables us to analyze in-context learning dynamics to understand latent concepts underlying LLMs' behavioral patterns. This provides a more nuanced understanding than success-or-failure evaluation benchmarks, but does not require observing internal activations as a mechanistic interpretation of circuits would. Inspired by the cognitive science of human randomness perception, we use random binary sequences as context and study dynamics of in-context learning by manipulating properties of context data, such as sequence length. In the latest GPT-3.5+ models, we find emergent abilities to generate seemingly random numbers and learn basic formal languages, with striking in-context learning dynamics where model outputs transition sharply from seemingly random behaviors to deterministic repetition.

Categorical encoders transform categorical features into numerical representations that are indispensable for a wide range of machine learning models. Existing encoder benchmark studies lack generalizability because of their limited choice of (1) encoders, (2) experimental factors, and (3) datasets. Additionally, inconsistencies arise from the adoption of varying aggregation strategies. This paper is the most comprehensive benchmark of categorical encoders to date, including an extensive evaluation of 32 configurations of encoders from diverse families, with 36 combinations of experimental factors, and on 50 datasets. The study shows the profound influence of dataset selection, experimental factors, and aggregation strategies on the benchmark's conclusions -- aspects disregarded in previous encoder benchmarks.

Active learning is a paradigm that significantly enhances the performance of machine learning models when acquiring labeled data is expensive. While several benchmarks exist for evaluating active learning strategies, their findings exhibit some misalignment. This discrepancy motivates us to develop a transparent and reproducible benchmark for the community. Our efforts result in an open-sourced implementation (https://github.com/ariapoy/active-learning-benchmark) that is reliable and extensible for future research. By conducting thorough re-benchmarking experiments, we have not only rectified misconfigurations in existing benchmark but also shed light on the under-explored issue of model compatibility, which directly causes the observed discrepancy. Resolving the discrepancy reassures that the uncertainty sampling strategy of active learning remains an effective and preferred choice for most datasets. Our experience highlights the importance of dedicating research efforts towards re-benchmarking existing benchmarks to produce more credible results and gain deeper insights.

Decompilation aims to recover the source code form of a binary executable. It has many security applications such as malware analysis, vulnerability detection and code hardening. A prominent challenge in decompilation is to recover variable names. We propose a novel technique that leverages the strengths of generative models while mitigating model biases and potential hallucinations. We build a prototype, GenNm, from pre-trained generative models CodeGemma-2B and CodeLlama-7B. We finetune GenNm on decompiled functions, and mitigate model biases by incorporating symbol preference to the training pipeline. GenNm includes names from callers and callees while querying a function, providing rich contextual information within the model's input token limitation. It further leverages program analysis to validate the consistency of names produced by the generative model. Our results show that GenNm improves the state-of-the-art name recovery accuracy by 8.6 and 11.4 percentage points on two commonly used datasets, and improves the state-of-the-art from 8.5% to 22.8% in the most challenging setup where ground-truth variable names are not seen in the training dataset.

Gender-neutral pronouns are increasingly being introduced across Western languages. Recent evaluations have however demonstrated that English NLP systems are unable to correctly process gender-neutral pronouns, with the risk of erasing and misgendering non-binary individuals. This paper examines a Dutch coreference resolution system's performance on gender-neutral pronouns, specifically hen and die. In Dutch, these pronouns were only introduced in 2016, compared to the longstanding existence of singular they in English. We additionally compare two debiasing techniques for coreference resolution systems in non-binary contexts: Counterfactual Data Augmentation (CDA) and delexicalisation. Moreover, because pronoun performance can be hard to interpret from a general evaluation metric like LEA, we introduce an innovative evaluation metric, the pronoun score, which directly represents the portion of correctly processed pronouns. Our results reveal diminished performance on gender-neutral pronouns compared to gendered counterparts. Nevertheless, although delexicalisation fails to yield improvements, CDA substantially reduces the performance gap between gendered and gender-neutral pronouns. We further show that CDA remains effective in low-resource settings, in which a limited set of debiasing documents is used. This efficacy extends to previously unseen neopronouns, which are currently infrequently used but may gain popularity in the future, underscoring the viability of effective debiasing with minimal resources and low computational costs.

Binarization of neural networks is a dominant paradigm in neural networks compression. The pioneering work BinaryConnect uses Straight Through Estimator (STE) to mimic the gradients of the sign function, but it also causes the crucial inconsistency problem. Most of the previous methods design different estimators instead of STE to mitigate it. However, they ignore the fact that when reducing the estimating error, the gradient stability will decrease concomitantly. These highly divergent gradients will harm the model training and increase the risk of gradient vanishing and gradient exploding. To fully take the gradient stability into consideration, we present a new perspective to the BNNs training, regarding it as the equilibrium between the estimating error and the gradient stability. In this view, we firstly design two indicators to quantitatively demonstrate the equilibrium phenomenon. In addition, in order to balance the estimating error and the gradient stability well, we revise the original straight through estimator and propose a power function based estimator, Rectified Straight Through Estimator (ReSTE for short). Comparing to other estimators, ReSTE is rational and capable of flexibly balancing the estimating error with the gradient stability. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets show that ReSTE has excellent performance and surpasses the state-of-the-art methods without any auxiliary modules or losses.

FourCastNet, short for Fourier Forecasting Neural Network, is a global data-driven weather forecasting model that provides accurate short to medium-range global predictions at 0.25^{circ} resolution. FourCastNet accurately forecasts high-resolution, fast-timescale variables such as the surface wind speed, precipitation, and atmospheric water vapor. It has important implications for planning wind energy resources, predicting extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, extra-tropical cyclones, and atmospheric rivers. FourCastNet matches the forecasting accuracy of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), a state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, at short lead times for large-scale variables, while outperforming IFS for variables with complex fine-scale structure, including precipitation. FourCastNet generates a week-long forecast in less than 2 seconds, orders of magnitude faster than IFS. The speed of FourCastNet enables the creation of rapid and inexpensive large-ensemble forecasts with thousands of ensemble-members for improving probabilistic forecasting. We discuss how data-driven deep learning models such as FourCastNet are a valuable addition to the meteorology toolkit to aid and augment NWP models.

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound). However, model scores are often not aligned with the true positivity rate. This is especially true when the training involves a differential sampling across classes or there is distributional drift between train and test settings. In this paper, we provide theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of the dependence of model score estimation bias on both uncertainty and score itself. Further, we formulate the decision boundary selection in terms of both model score and uncertainty, prove that it is NP-hard, and present algorithms based on dynamic programming and isotonic regression. Evaluation of the proposed algorithms on three real-world datasets yield 25%-40% gain in recall at high precision bounds over the traditional approach of using model score alone, highlighting the benefits of leveraging uncertainty.

Encouraged by decision makers' appetite for future information on topics ranging from elections to pandemics, and enabled by the explosion of data and computational methods, model based forecasts have garnered increasing influence on a breadth of decisions in modern society. Using several classic examples from fisheries management, I demonstrate that selecting the model or models that produce the most accurate and precise forecast (measured by statistical scores) can sometimes lead to worse outcomes (measured by real-world objectives). This can create a forecast trap, in which the outcomes such as fish biomass or economic yield decline while the manager becomes increasingly convinced that these actions are consistent with the best models and data available. The forecast trap is not unique to this example, but a fundamental consequence of non-uniqueness of models. Existing practices promoting a broader set of models are the best way to avoid the trap.

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.

Skin cancer is a widespread, global, and potentially deadly disease, which over the last three decades has afflicted more lives in the USA than all other forms of cancer combined. There have been a lot of promising recent works utilizing deep network architectures, such as FCNs, U-Nets, and ResNets, for developing automated skin lesion segmentation. This paper investigates various pre- and post-processing techniques for improving the performance of U-Nets as measured by the Jaccard Index. The dataset provided as part of the "2017 ISBI Challenges on Skin Lesion Analysis Towards Melanoma Detection" was used for this evaluation and the performance of the finalist competitors was the standard for comparison. The pre-processing techniques employed in the proposed system included contrast enhancement, artifact removal, and vignette correction. More advanced image transformations, such as local binary patterns and wavelet decomposition, were also employed to augment the raw grayscale images used as network input features. While the performance of the proposed system fell short of the winners of the challenge, it was determined that using wavelet decomposition as an early transformation step improved the overall performance of the system over pre- and post-processing steps alone.

This study presents the modeling of the gravitational wave (GW) bias parameter by bridging a connection between simulated GW sources and galaxies in low redshift galaxy surveys 2MPZ and WISExSCOS (WISC). We study this connection by creating a mock GW catalog, populating galaxy surveys with binary black holes (BBHs) for different scenarios of the GW host-galaxy probability as a function of the galaxy stellar mass. We probe the observable consequences of this connection by exploring the spatial clustering of the GW sources in terms of the GW bias parameter. We consider a phenomenological broken power law model for the host-galaxy probability function, with a potential turnover M_{K} at high stellar mass (10^{11} M_{odot} in the fiducial model) where the star formation efficiency begins to drop. We vary the parameters of the GW host-galaxy probability function and find that generically the GW bias increases as M_{K} increases (and gets suppressed as M_{K} decreases). The change in the GW bias parameter shows a maximum change of about 30% for different scenarios explored in this work in comparison to the galaxy bias. Future measurements of the GW bias can help constrain M_{K} and the slopes of the host-galaxy probability function and thus offer insights into the underlying astrophysical processes.

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial to decision-making under uncertainty about future weather. The dominant approach is to use an ensemble of forecasts to represent and quantify uncertainty in operational numerical weather prediction. However, generating ensembles is computationally costly. In this paper, we propose to generate ensemble forecasts at scale by leveraging recent advances in generative artificial intelligence. Our approach learns a data-driven probabilistic diffusion model from the 5-member ensemble GEFS reforecast dataset. The model can then be sampled efficiently to produce realistic weather forecasts, conditioned on a few members of the operational GEFS forecasting system. The generated ensembles have similar predictive skill as the full GEFS 31-member ensemble, evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis, and emulate well the statistics of large physics-based ensembles. We also apply the same methodology to developing a diffusion model for generative post-processing: the model directly learns to correct biases present in the emulated forecasting system by leveraging reanalysis data as labels during training. Ensembles from this generative post-processing model show greater reliability and accuracy, particularly in extreme event classification. In general, they are more reliable and forecast the probability of extreme weather more accurately than the GEFS operational ensemble. Our models achieve these results at less than 1/10th of the computational cost incurred by the operational GEFS system.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of task-agnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Forecasting future world events is a challenging but valuable task. Forecasts of climate, geopolitical conflict, pandemics and economic indicators help shape policy and decision making. In these domains, the judgment of expert humans contributes to the best forecasts. Given advances in language modeling, can these forecasts be automated? To this end, we introduce Autocast, a dataset containing thousands of forecasting questions and an accompanying news corpus. Questions are taken from forecasting tournaments, ensuring high quality, real-world importance, and diversity. The news corpus is organized by date, allowing us to precisely simulate the conditions under which humans made past forecasts (avoiding leakage from the future). Motivated by the difficulty of forecasting numbers across orders of magnitude (e.g. global cases of COVID-19 in 2022), we also curate IntervalQA, a dataset of numerical questions and metrics for calibration. We test language models on our forecasting task and find that performance is far below a human expert baseline. However, performance improves with increased model size and incorporation of relevant information from the news corpus. In sum, Autocast poses a novel challenge for large language models and improved performance could bring large practical benefits.

Deep models have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series forecasting. However, due to the partially-observed nature of real-world applications, solely focusing on the target of interest, so-called endogenous variables, is usually insufficient to guarantee accurate forecasting. Notably, a system is often recorded into multiple variables, where the exogenous variables can provide valuable external information for endogenous variables. Thus, unlike well-established multivariate or univariate forecasting paradigms that either treat all the variables equally or ignore exogenous information, this paper focuses on a more practical setting: time series forecasting with exogenous variables. We propose a novel approach, TimeXer, to ingest external information to enhance the forecasting of endogenous variables. With deftly designed embedding layers, TimeXer empowers the canonical Transformer with the ability to reconcile endogenous and exogenous information, where patch-wise self-attention and variate-wise cross-attention are used simultaneously. Moreover, global endogenous tokens are learned to effectively bridge the causal information underlying exogenous series into endogenous temporal patches. Experimentally, TimeXer achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance on twelve real-world forecasting benchmarks and exhibits notable generality and scalability. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/TimeXer.

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a standardized set of forecasting questions. To address this gap, we introduce ForecastBench: a dynamic benchmark that evaluates the accuracy of ML systems on an automatically generated and regularly updated set of 1,000 forecasting questions. To avoid any possibility of data leakage, ForecastBench is comprised solely of questions about future events that have no known answer at the time of submission. We quantify the capabilities of current ML systems by collecting forecasts from expert (human) forecasters, the general public, and LLMs on a random subset of questions from the benchmark (N=200). While LLMs have achieved super-human performance on many benchmarks, they perform less well here: expert forecasters outperform the top-performing LLM (p-value <0.001). We display system and human scores in a public leaderboard at www.forecastbench.org.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) for numerical weather prediction (NWP) have significantly transformed atmospheric modeling. AI NWP models outperform traditional physics-based systems, such as the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), across several global metrics while requiring fewer computational resources. However, existing AI NWP models face limitations related to training datasets and timestep choices, often resulting in artifacts that reduce model performance. To address these challenges, we introduce the Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin (CREDIT) framework, developed at NSF NCAR. CREDIT provides a flexible, scalable, and user-friendly platform for training and deploying AI-based atmospheric models on high-performance computing systems. It offers an end-to-end pipeline for data preprocessing, model training, and evaluation, democratizing access to advanced AI NWP capabilities. We demonstrate CREDIT's potential through WXFormer, a novel deterministic vision transformer designed to predict atmospheric states autoregressively, addressing common AI NWP issues like compounding error growth with techniques such as spectral normalization, padding, and multi-step training. Additionally, to illustrate CREDIT's flexibility and state-of-the-art model comparisons, we train the FUXI architecture within this framework. Our findings show that both FUXI and WXFormer, trained on six-hourly ERA5 hybrid sigma-pressure levels, generally outperform IFS HRES in 10-day forecasts, offering potential improvements in efficiency and forecast accuracy. CREDIT's modular design enables researchers to explore various models, datasets, and training configurations, fostering innovation within the scientific community.

Weather forecasting traditionally relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems that integrates global observational systems, data assimilation (DA), and forecasting models. Despite steady improvements in forecast accuracy over recent decades, further advances are increasingly constrained by high computational costs, the underutilization of vast observational datasets, and the challenges of obtaining finer resolution. These limitations, alongside the uneven distribution of observational networks, result in global disparities in forecast accuracy, leaving some regions vulnerable to extreme weather. Recent advances in machine learning present a promising alternative, providing more efficient and accurate forecasts using the same initial conditions as NWP. However, current machine learning models still depend on the initial conditions generated by NWP systems, which require extensive computational resources and expertise. Here we introduce FuXi Weather, a machine learning weather forecasting system that assimilates data from multiple satellites. Operating on a 6-hourly DA and forecast cycle, FuXi Weather generates reliable and accurate 10-day global weather forecasts at a spatial resolution of 0.25^circ. FuXi Weather is the first system to achieve all-grid, all-surface, all-channel, and all-sky DA and forecasting, extending skillful forecast lead times beyond those of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) high-resolution forecasts (HRES) while using significantly fewer observations. FuXi Weather consistently outperforms ECMWF HRES in observation-sparse regions, such as central Africa, demonstrating its potential to improve forecasts where observational infrastructure is limited.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Time series forecasting has attracted significant attention in recent decades. Previous studies have demonstrated that the Channel-Independent (CI) strategy improves forecasting performance by treating different channels individually, while it leads to poor generalization on unseen instances and ignores potentially necessary interactions between channels. Conversely, the Channel-Dependent (CD) strategy mixes all channels with even irrelevant and indiscriminate information, which, however, results in oversmoothing issues and limits forecasting accuracy. There is a lack of channel strategy that effectively balances individual channel treatment for improved forecasting performance without overlooking essential interactions between channels. Motivated by our observation of a correlation between the time series model's performance boost against channel mixing and the intrinsic similarity on a pair of channels, we developed a novel and adaptable Channel Clustering Module (CCM). CCM dynamically groups channels characterized by intrinsic similarities and leverages cluster information instead of individual channel identities, combining the best of CD and CI worlds. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CCM can (1) boost the performance of CI and CD models by an average margin of 2.4% and 7.2% on long-term and short-term forecasting, respectively; (2) enable zero-shot forecasting with mainstream time series forecasting models; (3) uncover intrinsic time series patterns among channels and improve interpretability of complex time series models.

State-of-the-art space science missions increasingly rely on automation due to spacecraft complexity and the costs of human oversight. The high volume of data, including scientific and telemetry data, makes manual inspection challenging. Machine learning offers significant potential to meet these demands. The Euclid space telescope, in its survey phase since February 2024, exemplifies this shift. Euclid's success depends on accurate monitoring and interpretation of housekeeping telemetry and science-derived data. Thousands of telemetry parameters, monitored as time series, may or may not impact the quality of scientific data. These parameters have complex interdependencies, often due to physical relationships (e.g., proximity of temperature sensors). Optimising science operations requires careful anomaly detection and identification of hidden parameter states. Moreover, understanding the interactions between known anomalies and physical quantities is crucial yet complex, as related parameters may display anomalies with varied timing and intensity. We address these challenges by analysing temperature anomalies in Euclid's telemetry from February to August 2024, focusing on eleven temperature parameters and 35 covariates. We use a predictive XGBoost model to forecast temperatures based on historical values, detecting anomalies as deviations from predictions. A second XGBoost model predicts anomalies from covariates, capturing their relationships to temperature anomalies. We identify the top three anomalies per parameter and analyse their interactions with covariates using SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), enabling rapid, automated analysis of complex parameter relationships. Our method demonstrates how machine learning can enhance telemetry monitoring, offering scalable solutions for other missions with similar data challenges.

We introduce NeuralProphet, a successor to Facebook Prophet, which set an industry standard for explainable, scalable, and user-friendly forecasting frameworks. With the proliferation of time series data, explainable forecasting remains a challenging task for business and operational decision making. Hybrid solutions are needed to bridge the gap between interpretable classical methods and scalable deep learning models. We view Prophet as a precursor to such a solution. However, Prophet lacks local context, which is essential for forecasting the near-term future and is challenging to extend due to its Stan backend. NeuralProphet is a hybrid forecasting framework based on PyTorch and trained with standard deep learning methods, making it easy for developers to extend the framework. Local context is introduced with auto-regression and covariate modules, which can be configured as classical linear regression or as Neural Networks. Otherwise, NeuralProphet retains the design philosophy of Prophet and provides the same basic model components. Our results demonstrate that NeuralProphet produces interpretable forecast components of equivalent or superior quality to Prophet on a set of generated time series. NeuralProphet outperforms Prophet on a diverse collection of real-world datasets. For short to medium-term forecasts, NeuralProphet improves forecast accuracy by 55 to 92 percent.