Daily Papers

Attempts to probe the atmospheres of rocky planets around M dwarfs present both promise and peril. While their favorable planet-to-star radius ratios enable searches for even thin secondary atmospheres, their high activity levels and high-energy outputs threaten atmosphere survival. Here, we present the 0.6--2.85\,mum transmission spectrum of the 1.1\,rm R_oplus, sim340\,K rocky planet TRAPPIST-1\,c obtained over two JWST NIRISS/SOSS transit observations. Each of the two spectra displays 100--500\,ppm signatures of stellar contamination. Despite being separated by 367\,days, the retrieved spot and faculae properties are consistent between the two visits, resulting in nearly identical transmission spectra. Jointly retrieving for stellar contamination and a planetary atmosphere reveals that our spectrum can rule out hydrogen-dominated, lesssim300times solar metallicity atmospheres with effective surface pressures down to 10\,mbar at the 3-sigma level. For high-mean molecular weight atmospheres, where O_2 or N_2 is the background gas, our spectrum disfavors partial pressures of more than sim10\,mbar for H_2O, CO, NH_3 and CH_4 at the 2-sigma level. Similarly, under the assumption of a 100\% H_2O, NH_3, CO, or CH_4 atmosphere, our spectrum disfavors thick, >1\,bar atmospheres at the 2-sigma level. These non-detections of spectral features are in line with predictions that even heavier, CO_2-rich, atmospheres would be efficiently lost on TRAPPIST-1\,c given the cumulative high-energy irradiation experienced by the planet. Our results further stress the importance of robustly accounting for stellar contamination when analyzing JWST observations of exo-Earths around M dwarfs, as well as the need for high-fidelity stellar models to search for the potential signals of thin secondary atmospheres.

Decentralized training of deep neural networks has attracted significant attention for its theoretically superior scalability over synchronous data-parallel methods like All-Reduce. However, realizing this potential in multi-node training is challenging due to the complex design space that involves communication topologies, computation patterns, and optimization algorithms. This paper identifies three key factors that can lead to speedups over All-Reduce training and constructs a runtime model to determine when, how, and to what degree decentralization can yield shorter per-iteration runtimes. Furthermore, to support the decentralized training of transformer-based models, we study a decentralized Adam algorithm that allows for overlapping communications and computations, prove its convergence, and propose an accumulation technique to mitigate the high variance caused by small local batch sizes. We deploy the proposed approach in clusters with up to 64 GPUs and demonstrate its practicality and advantages in both runtime and generalization performance under a fixed iteration budget.

An emerging method to cheaply improve a weaker language model is to finetune it on outputs from a stronger model, such as a proprietary system like ChatGPT (e.g., Alpaca, Self-Instruct, and others). This approach looks to cheaply imitate the proprietary model's capabilities using a weaker open-source model. In this work, we critically analyze this approach. We first finetune a series of LMs that imitate ChatGPT using varying base model sizes (1.5B--13B), data sources, and imitation data amounts (0.3M--150M tokens). We then evaluate the models using crowd raters and canonical NLP benchmarks. Initially, we were surprised by the output quality of our imitation models -- they appear far better at following instructions, and crowd workers rate their outputs as competitive with ChatGPT. However, when conducting more targeted automatic evaluations, we find that imitation models close little to none of the gap from the base LM to ChatGPT on tasks that are not heavily supported in the imitation data. We show that these performance discrepancies may slip past human raters because imitation models are adept at mimicking ChatGPT's style but not its factuality. Overall, we conclude that model imitation is a false promise: there exists a substantial capabilities gap between open and closed LMs that, with current methods, can only be bridged using an unwieldy amount of imitation data or by using more capable base LMs. In turn, we argue that the highest leverage action for improving open-source models is to tackle the difficult challenge of developing better base LMs, rather than taking the shortcut of imitating proprietary systems.

Generative text-to-image models enable us to synthesize unlimited amounts of images in a controllable manner, spurring many recent efforts to train vision models with synthetic data. However, every synthetic image ultimately originates from the upstream data used to train the generator. What additional value does the intermediate generator provide over directly training on relevant parts of the upstream data? Grounding this question in the setting of image classification,a we compare finetuning on task-relevant, targeted synthetic data generated by Stable Diffusion -- a generative model trained on the LAION-2B dataset -- against finetuning on targeted real images retrieved directly from LAION-2B. We show that while synthetic data can benefit some downstream tasks, it is universally matched or outperformed by real data from our simple retrieval baseline. Our analysis suggests that this underperformance is partially due to generator artifacts and inaccurate task-relevant visual details in the synthetic images. Overall, we argue that retrieval is a critical baseline to consider when training with synthetic data -- a baseline that current methods do not yet surpass. We release code, data, and models at https://github.com/scottgeng00/unmet-promise.

Real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) for sequence-processing recurrent neural networks (RNNs) offers certain conceptual advantages over backpropagation through time (BPTT). RTRL requires neither caching past activations nor truncating context, and enables online learning. However, RTRL's time and space complexity make it impractical. To overcome this problem, most recent work on RTRL focuses on approximation theories, while experiments are often limited to diagnostic settings. Here we explore the practical promise of RTRL in more realistic settings. We study actor-critic methods that combine RTRL and policy gradients, and test them in several subsets of DMLab-30, ProcGen, and Atari-2600 environments. On DMLab memory tasks, our system trained on fewer than 1.2 B environmental frames is competitive with or outperforms well-known IMPALA and R2D2 baselines trained on 10 B frames. To scale to such challenging tasks, we focus on certain well-known neural architectures with element-wise recurrence, allowing for tractable RTRL without approximation. Importantly, we also discuss rarely addressed limitations of RTRL in real-world applications, such as its complexity in the multi-layer case.

Neural network (NN) potentials promise highly accurate molecular dynamics (MD) simulations within the computational complexity of classical MD force fields. However, when applied outside their training domain, NN potential predictions can be inaccurate, increasing the need for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). Bayesian modeling provides the mathematical framework for UQ, but classical Bayesian methods based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are computationally intractable for NN potentials. By training graph NN potentials for coarse-grained systems of liquid water and alanine dipeptide, we demonstrate here that scalable Bayesian UQ via stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) yields reliable uncertainty estimates for MD observables. We show that cold posteriors can reduce the required training data size and that for reliable UQ, multiple Markov chains are needed. Additionally, we find that SG-MCMC and the Deep Ensemble method achieve comparable results, despite shorter training and less hyperparameter tuning of the latter. We show that both methods can capture aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty reliably, but not systematic uncertainty, which needs to be minimized by adequate modeling to obtain accurate credible intervals for MD observables. Our results represent a step towards accurate UQ that is of vital importance for trustworthy NN potential-based MD simulations required for decision-making in practice.

Probing classifiers have emerged as one of the prominent methodologies for interpreting and analyzing deep neural network models of natural language processing. The basic idea is simple -- a classifier is trained to predict some linguistic property from a model's representations -- and has been used to examine a wide variety of models and properties. However, recent studies have demonstrated various methodological limitations of this approach. This article critically reviews the probing classifiers framework, highlighting their promises, shortcomings, and advances.

Estimating causal effect using machine learning (ML) algorithms can help to relax functional form assumptions if used within appropriate frameworks. However, most of these frameworks assume settings with cross-sectional data, whereas researchers often have access to panel data, which in traditional methods helps to deal with unobserved heterogeneity between units. In this paper, we explore how we can adapt double/debiased machine learning (DML) (Chernozhukov et al., 2018) for panel data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. This adaptation is challenging because DML's cross-fitting procedure assumes independent data and the unobserved heterogeneity is not necessarily additively separable in settings with nonlinear observed confounding. We assess the performance of several intuitively appealing estimators in a variety of simulations. While we find violations of the cross-fitting assumptions to be largely inconsequential for the accuracy of the effect estimates, many of the considered methods fail to adequately account for the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. However, we find that using predictive models based on the correlated random effects approach (Mundlak, 1978) within DML leads to accurate coefficient estimates across settings, given a sample size that is large relative to the number of observed confounders. We also show that the influence of the unobserved heterogeneity on the observed confounders plays a significant role for the performance of most alternative methods.

The advent of large language models (LLMs) has enabled significant performance gains in the field of natural language processing. However, recent studies have found that LLMs often resort to shortcuts when performing tasks, creating an illusion of enhanced performance while lacking generalizability in their decision rules. This phenomenon introduces challenges in accurately assessing natural language understanding in LLMs. Our paper provides a concise survey of relevant research in this area and puts forth a perspective on the implications of shortcut learning in the evaluation of language models, specifically for NLU tasks. This paper urges more research efforts to be put towards deepening our comprehension of shortcut learning, contributing to the development of more robust language models, and raising the standards of NLU evaluation in real-world scenarios.

Over the past decade, predictive language modeling for code has proven to be a valuable tool for enabling new forms of automation for developers. More recently, we have seen the advent of general purpose "large language models", based on neural transformer architectures, that have been trained on massive datasets of human written text spanning code and natural language. However, despite the demonstrated representational power of such models, interacting with them has historically been constrained to specific task settings, limiting their general applicability. Many of these limitations were recently overcome with the introduction of ChatGPT, a language model created by OpenAI and trained to operate as a conversational agent, enabling it to answer questions and respond to a wide variety of commands from end users. The introduction of models, such as ChatGPT, has already spurred fervent discussion from educators, ranging from fear that students could use these AI tools to circumvent learning, to excitement about the new types of learning opportunities that they might unlock. However, given the nascent nature of these tools, we currently lack fundamental knowledge related to how well they perform in different educational settings, and the potential promise (or danger) that they might pose to traditional forms of instruction. As such, in this paper, we examine how well ChatGPT performs when tasked with answering common questions in a popular software testing curriculum. Our findings indicate that ChatGPT can provide correct or partially correct answers in 55.6% of cases, provide correct or partially correct explanations of answers in 53.0% of cases, and that prompting the tool in a shared question context leads to a marginally higher rate of correct responses. Based on these findings, we discuss the potential promises and perils related to the use of ChatGPT by students and instructors.

Large Language Model (LLM)-based applications are graduating from research prototypes to products serving millions of users, influencing how people write and consume information. A prominent example is the appearance of Answer Engines: LLM-based generative search engines supplanting traditional search engines. Answer engines not only retrieve relevant sources to a user query but synthesize answer summaries that cite the sources. To understand these systems' limitations, we first conducted a study with 21 participants, evaluating interactions with answer vs. traditional search engines and identifying 16 answer engine limitations. From these insights, we propose 16 answer engine design recommendations, linked to 8 metrics. An automated evaluation implementing our metrics on three popular engines (You.com, Perplexity.ai, BingChat) quantifies common limitations (e.g., frequent hallucination, inaccurate citation) and unique features (e.g., variation in answer confidence), with results mirroring user study insights. We release our Answer Engine Evaluation benchmark (AEE) to facilitate transparent evaluation of LLM-based applications.

This work introduces the first toolkit around path-norms that fully encompasses general DAG ReLU networks with biases, skip connections and any operation based on the extraction of order statistics: max pooling, GroupSort etc. This toolkit notably allows us to establish generalization bounds for modern neural networks that are not only the most widely applicable path-norm based ones, but also recover or beat the sharpest known bounds of this type. These extended path-norms further enjoy the usual benefits of path-norms: ease of computation, invariance under the symmetries of the network, and improved sharpness on layered fully-connected networks compared to the product of operator norms, another complexity measure most commonly used. The versatility of the toolkit and its ease of implementation allow us to challenge the concrete promises of path-norm-based generalization bounds, by numerically evaluating the sharpest known bounds for ResNets on ImageNet.

Researchers have argued that large language models (LLMs) exhibit high-quality writing capabilities from blogs to stories. However, evaluating objectively the creativity of a piece of writing is challenging. Inspired by the Torrance Test of Creative Thinking (TTCT), which measures creativity as a process, we use the Consensual Assessment Technique [3] and propose the Torrance Test of Creative Writing (TTCW) to evaluate creativity as a product. TTCW consists of 14 binary tests organized into the original dimensions of Fluency, Flexibility, Originality, and Elaboration. We recruit 10 creative writers and implement a human assessment of 48 stories written either by professional authors or LLMs using TTCW. Our analysis shows that LLM-generated stories pass 3-10X less TTCW tests than stories written by professionals. In addition, we explore the use of LLMs as assessors to automate the TTCW evaluation, revealing that none of the LLMs positively correlate with the expert assessments.